SB Nation - David Garrard

Dolphins vs Jaguars: Game Capsule

Matty I — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 17:30:17 -0000

MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-6) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (7-5)

SERIES

	DOLPHINS	JAGUARS
SERIES LEADER		2-1
STREAKS		Past 1
COACHES VS. OPP.	Sparano: 0-0	Del Rio: 1-1
LAST WEEK	W 22-21 vs. Patriots	W 23-18 vs. Texans
LAST GAME	12/3/06: Jaguars 24 at Dolphins 10. Jacksonville QB David Garrard completes 16 of 22 passes for 229 yards & 2 TDs, incl. 6 passes for 128 yards & 1 TD to WR Matt Jones.
LAST GAME AT SITE	10/12/03: Dolphins 24, Jaguars 10. Miami defense forces 5 turnovers & records 4 sacks. Dolphins CB San Madison returns INT 29 yards for TD with 1:28 remaining to clinch victory.
BROADCAST	CBS (1:00 PM ET): Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots. SIRIUS: 125 (Mia.), 117 (Jax.). XM: 102 (Mia.).

STATS

PASSING	Henne: 173-301-1,847-9-8-74.4	Garrard: 239-386-2,848-10-6-86.6
RUSHING	R. Williams: 172-867-5.0-9 (T2C)	Jones-Drew: 233-1,077 (2C)-4.6-13 (1L)
RECEIVING	Bess: 59-548-9.3-1	Sims-Walker: 52-752-14.5-6
OFFENSE	326.1	351.7
TAKE/GIVE	-2	0
DEFENSE	349.9	345.5
SACKS	Porter: 7	J. Henderson: 3
INTs	V. Davis (R): 3	Mathis: 3
PUNTING	Fields: 46.1 (3C)	Podlesh: 42.2
KICKING	Carpenter: 86 (29/30 PAT; 19/20 FG)	Scobee: 67 (22/23 PAT; 15/23 FG)

NOTES

DOLPHINS: Club is 5-0 in Dec. under head coach TONY SPARANO...QB CHAD HENNE had career highs in completions (29) & passing yards (335) last week. Henne is 6-3 as starter...RB RICKY WILLIAMS (867) needs 133 rush yards to reach 1,000 for 5th time in career & 1st since '03. Williams (9) needs 1 rush TD to reach double-digit rush TDs for 2nd time in career (16 in '02). Has 3 rush TDs in past 2 vs. Jax...WR DAVONE BESS had career highs in receptions (10) & receiving yards (117) last week. Since '08, Bess leads Mia., w/113 rec. for 1,102 yards. Rookie WR BRIAN HARTLINE (Round 4, Ohio St.) aims for 3rd consecutive game w/TD rec...LB JASON TAYLOR (126.5) needs 0.5 sack to surpass DERRICK THOMAS for 11th-most sacks all-time. Taylor aims for 3rd consecutive game w/sack against Jax...Rookie CB VONTAE DAVIS (Round 1, Illinois) posted 3rd INT of season last week...LB CHANNING CROWDER had 1st INT of career last week...K DAN CARPENTER registered 3rd game-winning FG of career on 41-yard FG vs. NE.

JAGUARS: Aim for 6th consecutive win at home...QB DAVID GARRARD is 5-1 at home in '09 & has completed 134 of 208 (64.4 pct.) for 1,657 passing yards w/9 TDs vs. 4 INTs & 95.4 passer rating...RB MAURICE JONES-DREW leads NFL w/13 rush TDs & needs 2 rush TDs to surpass FRED TAYLOR (14 in 1998) for most rush TDs in season in franchise history. Jones-Drew (47) needs 3 rush TDs to reach 50 career...WR MIKE SIMS-WALKER averages 94.5 receiving yards per game at home in '09 & has 3 100-yard receiving games (106, 120, 147). For career, WR TORRY HOLT averages 18.1 yards per catch vs. Mia. (8 rec., 145 yards)...Rookie TE ZACH MILLER (Round 6, Nebraska-Omaha) had career-high 74 receiving yards last week. TE ERNEST WILFORD had 1st TD rec. of '09 last week. Wilford spent '08 season w/Dolphins...Defense had season-high 3 INTs last week...CB RASHEAN MATHIS aims for 2nd straight game w/INT vs. Mia...S ANTHONY SMITH has 2 INTs in past 3...LB DARYL SMITH leads team w/111 tackles in '09.

Dolphins vs Jaguars: Keys to Victory

Matty I — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 05:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Wilfredo Lee - AP

Let if fly!

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We're getting closer and closer to Sunday's big game between the Dolphins and Jaguars. For all intents and purposes, this game is essentially a playoff game - at least for the Dolphins, as every game has been since last week.

So let's get to my keys to the game. Last week, the Dolphins were three for three with the keys I highlighted. Let's hope for another outstanding performance.

Aggressively attack Jacksonville's secondary
I talked about this earlier in the week as well and I'm going to talk about it again because I think it's extremely important. I really hope that Dan Henning uses what he learned last week against New England - that Chad Henne can indeed win a game with his arm - and applies it again this week against an even worse (statistically) secondary.

Jaguar fans can come onto this site all they want and talk about how their cornerbacks aren't below average players. But without Rashean Mathis, who is again not expected to play, the Jaguars really don't have any cornerback that I'd be worried about throwing at. Don't get me wrong - Derek Cox, the rookie corner, seems like he's got plenty of potential. But when he's your best corner on the field, you got problems. He's allowing 64% of the passes thrown at him to be completed. On the other side, Tyron Brackenridge is giving up over 15 yards per completion and, quite frankly, should probably be no better than a fourth or fifth corner in the NFL.

I'm not trying to trash their secondary. But I just can't believe Jacksonville fans will come on here and defend their 23rd ranked pass defense - a unit that is allowing 242 yards per game - and say that they hope the Dolphins pass against them. This is a pass defense that gives up 7.2 yards per attempt, has surrendered 20 touchdown passes (more than even Miami's secondary has), and lets opponents complete a ridiculous 65.5% of their pass attempts. For comparison's sake, the Dolphins are only allowing opponents to complete 57% of their pass attempts.

Now I'm not saying that we should forget about Ricky Williams and the ground game. I certainly don't want to see Henne throw over 50 passes again. But let's not be afraid to attack a secondary that let Alex Smith throw for 232 yards and two touchdowns just two weeks ago.

Contain the hyphens
I think the Jaguars lead the NFL in longest last names among offensive starters. But both of the "hypheners" - yes, I made up my own word - are very good players.

The Dolphins need to contain Maurice Jones-Drew as best they can. He's fourth in the NFL in rushing yards and first in rushing touchdowns. And we can't forget how talented MJD can be catching the football out of the backfield as well. I'd be lying if I didn't say how worried I am about the Jaguars getting Jones-Drew in space against our inside linebackers. We all know that one thing our two inside backers are not is quick. They're big and powerful - but have no shot at making a play on a guy like MJD in open space.

Luckily, Jones-Drew hasn't looked like himself since his 120+ yard performance four games ago against the Jets. Since then, he has carried the ball 64 times for just 217 yards in three games, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry. That includes a game against Buffalo - one of the NFL's worst rushing defenses - in which MJD gained 66 yards on just 25 carries. If the Bills can do it, so can the Dolphins.

The other "hyphener" is, of course, Mike Sims-Walker. Sims-Walker is a big, physical receiver who is David Garrard's primary target through the air. He leads the Jaguars in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns (52-752-6). But he hasn't been the same receiver, it seems, over the past four weeks. In that span, despite being targeted 32 times, Sims-Walker has just 16 receptions for 198 yards.

It'll be interesting to see which rookie cornerback gets the job of covering Sims-Walker on Sunday.

Get the early lead
You'd obviously like to do this in every game. But I think it's especially important against a team with a great running back. And the stats back it up. The Jaguars are 2-5 when trailing at the half. And one of those wins was an overtime win at home against the terrible St. Louis Rams. But what's more telling is that the Jaguars are 5-0 when leading at the half. Why? I'd say that having a second half lead allows Jacksonville to really work Jones-Drew and the running game late in the game, wearing down a defense. From there, the play-action pass opens up as defenses get desperate to contain MJD and it goes downhill.

Again, not to hate on the Jaguars, but I'm just not a fan of David Garrard. And I'd love nothing more than forcing the Jaguars to abandon the run in the second half and put the game on Garrard's arm. This would allow the Dolphins to really pin their ears back and get after Garrard. The Jaguars surrender a ton of sacks - 34 on the season, to be exact. If the Dolphins can get a lead and force the Jaguars to throw, I think Sunday will be a fine day for Dolphin fans.

Post-Game Breakdown: Texans Lose To Jaguars...Again

Tim — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 23:05:04 -0000

Four losses in a row. To Indianapolis. To Tennessee. To Indianapolis. And yesterday afternoon, to Jacksonville. From a 5-3 start and talk of playoff contention to a 5-7 record and virtual elimination from relevance. Your Houston Texans finish their 2009 campaign with a 1-5 record in the AFC South. That's failure.

On to the details of the latest crime against the Texans fan base:

1. The single good thing to come out of yesterday's disaster was Matt Schaub refusing to let a little thing like a dislocated shoulder keep him out of the game. Had Brett Favre been the guy who was driven into the ground, we'd be treated to a full week of praise for Favre about his grit, toughness, commitment to his teammates, excellence, and leadership. Since it's Schaub, it won't merit much talk outside of Houston and/or fantasy owners. Thus, allow me to pick up the slack on this one.

After Schaub went down on the first play from scrimmage, I never thought for a second he'd be back and was resigning myself to the remainder of the 2009 season playing out with Rex Grossman under center, followed by a stint in rehab for me come January. But then...with about seven minutes left in the first half, there was Schaub, warming up on the sideline. I couldn't believe it. From the second he went down, judging from the way he went down and then the way he was holding his arm as he left the field, I thought Schaub separated his shoulder. Remember--Schaub missed the last few weeks of the 2007 season with an identical injury. Not this time. Schaub re-entered the game and very nearly brought the Texans back. It showed a resolve we hadn't ever seen from him, and it should put to rest any questions about his resilience. If Schaub can play, he will play. People can criticize him, but not for being soft. The guy's a gamer.

2. Good thing that Schaub's a gamer, too, because Rex Grossman looked awful. I don't even want to talk about it anymore.

3. Once again, Ryan Moats shows a burst that we haven't seen from a running back all year long. And once again, I'm sure he'll be banished to the bottom of the depth chart for reasons that elude me. Can anyone explain why Moats doesn't get more carries? Anyone?

4. Of all the things that puzzled/enraged me about yesterday's game, the most puzzling/infuriating was Chris Brown being in the game on the very next series after he tried to shot-put the ball in Joel Dreessen's general direction. How is it that Kubes can bench Steve Slaton and/or Ryan Moats for turning the ball over but not apply the same zero tolerance policy on C. Brown?

5. I appreciate those of you who think the halfback pass was a good call at the time. I vehemently disagree, and I think it's just the latest example of Kyle Shanahan and/or Gary Kubiak trying to get cute. Just as I had no clue why the Texans called a pass on third down at the IND 15 with slightly more than a minute to go in the first half last week, I'll never understand why the Texans would ask Chris Brown to make that play at that point in the game. It was a truly awful decision, trumped only by even more awful execution.

6. Although he coughed one ball up that turned into an interception, I continue to be impressed by David Anderson. Seems like he very quietly is good for a big third down conversion every week.

7. The absence of Owen Daniels makes Andre Johnson's consistency that much more unfathomable.

8. I never had anything against Chris White. Until yesterday. His false start, late in the third quarter, as the Texans prepared to go for it on 4th and 2 from the JAC 9, was as back-breaking a penalty as I've seen in some time.

9. I mentioned this a few weeks back in the PGB, and I'll reiterate it now: Is anyone else amazed at how no one has taken Alex Gibbs to task this season for the performance of the offensive line? They haven't been able to run block all year, and false starts seem to occur at an alarming rate, especially during this four-game swoon.

10. Why does Frank Bush EVER put the Texans into a zone? It never works. Ever. It's the schematic equivalent of raising a white flag.

11. Judging from the way Gus Johnson was lavishing praise on Dunta Robinson, I'm firmly of the belief that (1) Gus is on Dunta's payroll and/or (2) Gus hasn't watched the Texans play at all this year. The latter possibility is particularly troubling, considering that Gus Johnson and Steve Tasker have called several Texans games this year.

12. Theory: There is not a single member of the Texans secondary who would start for a playoff team except perhaps Bernard Pollard. Agree or disagree?

13. There aren't a whole lot more depressing things as a fan than to watch your defense get gashed via the run when everyone watching knows exactly what's coming, who's getting the ball, and a stop is absolutely crucial to avoid losing the game. It's demoralizing to watch. I can't even imagine what it has to be like for DeMeco Ryans & Co. The odd part is that the Texans did a fine job keeping Maurice Jones-Drew in check all the way up until that last drive. When they absolutely needed it the most, they couldn't do it.

14. Even though the Texans managed to sack David Garrard on four (4) occasions, I never really felt like they got to him. Just like last time, Garrard made the plays when he needed to, regardless of what the numbers say.

15. The Jaguars did everything they possibly could to give this game to the Texans, and the Texans refused to do anything about it. This was the sloppiest game I've seen two teams play in a good long while.

16. The calls for Kubiak's head are getting louder and louder. Not coincidentally, each loss and absurd playcall makes defending him harder and harder. JMay wrote a great FanPost on the topic, and I'll be writing a longer piece myself in the coming days on the subject. For now, I'll leave you with this thought...if you can't get a proven Super Bowl winning coach, are you content with replacing Kubes with someone who has no head coaching experience?

The Seahawks are next on the schedule. Here's hoping that Reliant doesn't look like Jacksonville Municipal Stadium on Sunday.

Texans vs Jaguars coverage

Recap Week Thirteen: Colts 27 - Titans 17

BigBlueShoe — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 13:00:35 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

10 days ago: Indianapolis Colts running back Joseph Addai (29) celebrates a touchdown in the first quarter against the Tennessee Titans in an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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12-0.

Only six other teams in NFL history have started 12-0 in this league. One of those teams was the 2005 Colts.

21 regular season wins in a row, tying an NFL record, which was much fawned over when it happened, held by the New England Patriots.

An NFL record seven straight seasons with at least 12 wins.

Tying the 1990s San Francisco 49ers, winning the team's 113th game this decade.

These are all records that are to be cherished, respected, and honored. Many will try to dismiss or diminish these accomplishments, but such talk is the action of haters and fools. This football team we know and love, these Indianapolis Colts, have achieved some very special, very awe-inspiring feats of late, and it is my sincere hope that each and every one of you does not fall into the black pit of cynical thinking by looking for ways to poke holes in all these accomplishments. And while it is certainly not the custom of the team to sit back and think "Gosh, we built a powerhouse this decade," we fans are permitted to enjoy the special accomplishments our beloved Colts have worked very hard to give us.

The Colts reached many of these amazing milestones with a tough 27-17 win over their division rivals, the Tennessee Titans. The Colts led from start to finish, forcing Vince Young into several critical mistakes, miscues, and misfires while also containing the volatile Chris Johnson by holding him out of the endzone. The win gives Indy the sweep of the regular season series over Tennessee. The Colts had already won the AFC South going into the game, but by beating the Titans it all but assures that the Flaming Thumb Tacks will not make the playoffs in 2009.

The way Indy won the game was also special. They "out physicaled" the Titans and beat them to the punch, mentally. At no point in the game was that more obvious than in the closing seconds of the second quarter. Indy was pushing the Titans off the line of scrimmage and driving to attempt a field goal. The previous series, the Titans scored on an impressive TD drive to cut the Colts lead 21-10. The Colts had two timeouts and less than 20 seconds to get into FG range. However, on a first and ten from the Titans 45 yard line, with 10 seconds left on the clock, Titans defensive end Tony Brown did what we have seen the Titans do all year: Freak out and lose composure. After a play, he got into an altercation with Kyle DeVan, who had been blasting Ford and other Titans off the line of scrimmage all day. Brown grabbed DeVan's facemask and poked him in the eye right in front of a ref.

Flag.

15 yard penalty. Colts ball at the Titans 30. Colts kick a FG from 43 yards out to go into halftime 24-10.

Thank you, Tony Brown.

That play right there just about summed up the game. The Colts were more physical and more mentally tough than a Titans team that is often (incorrectly) lauded for such things. And while there are many positive things I took from this game that relate to the Titans, the bottom line is there is a reason the Colts swept them this year, and that Tony Brown penalty (which should have gotten the punk ejected I might add; Ron Winters is a schmuck) gives you a clear indicator why.

Outstanding young receivers Pierre Garcon (85) and Austin Collie (17)

(AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

There's lots to take away from this game:

I cannot say enough good things about Kyle DeVan. The first quarter TD run by Joseph Addai was to the right, and made possible by some great blocking up front by DeVan and Ryan Diem. DeVan took his man nearly ten yards back on that Addai run, which put Indy up 7-0. The other Addai TD run, a 1 yard run on first and goal, was also to the right. Once again, DeVan sealed off his man extremely well and Ryan Diem once again opened a big hole for Addai and run through. Benching the second round bust that is Mike Pollak for Kyle DeVan was an excellent move on Jim Caldwell's part. Earlier this year, running right was an exercise in futility for the Colts. Now, they are blasting one of the best run defenses in the league off the line while running right.
Tony Ugoh started at left tackle today; in for an injured Charlie Johnson. Titans defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch, who lined up opposite of Ugoh, recorded three total tackles for the entire game and no sacks. Nice job, Tony.
The Colts broke the Titans back holding them to zero points on the goal line stand in the late-third quarter. In years past, that's an easy Titans TD. With this year's defense, the Colts hunker down and get nasty on the goal line. The Titans had seven chances to score in the red zone on that drive, and missed on each attempt. Damn fine defense, gentlemen!
Pierre Garçon has arrived. 99 receiving yards... IN THE FIRST QUARTER! Holy Mount Union, Batman! The kid finished with 136 for the day and averaged, AVERAGED!, 22.7 yards a catch. He did not see the endzone on Sunday. However, Austin Collie, the other "kid" who has arrived at wide receiver, did. Collie grabbed a 4 yard TD on third-and-goal from Peyton Manning. Once again, Manning and Collie make Titans linebacker Keith Bulluck look foolish. On the TD throw, Manning looked off Collie, and when Bulluck left his zone to follow Manning's eyes, Manning went back to Collie in the back of the endzone to go up 21-3.
We had a Mike Hart sighting, and the sighting was a good one. Some tough running from the second year player.
The fourth quarter drive to, essentially, ice the game was the kind of drive I absolutely go nuts for. After stopping the Titans again in the redzone, with Jeff Fisher opting to go for it on fourth down again only to come away with zero points, the Colts took over at their own 10 yard line. They then proceed to march 77 yards, consuming 7:23 minutes of clock while holding onto a 24-10 lead. It is at this point in the game where time of possession matters. This is when you want and need to run the ball, and the Colts did it. Indy scored another FG to cap the drive, all but ending any chance the Titans had of mounting a comeback. These kinds of drives are the ones that make champions. You put your foot on the throat of the opponent, and you squeeze the life out, slowly. That's what that drive was. It reminded me a lot of the fourth quarter drive in the playoffs in 2006 against the Ravens, where the game was iced with an Adam Vinatieri FG. Today, Matt Stover (former Ravens kicker who played in that 2006 playoff game) did the icing.

(AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

Like all games, both wins and loses, there are negatives. The 56 yard kick return by Kenny Britt was frustrating, especially after seeing this special teams unit play so very well all season long. The Jacob Lacey pass inference call was stupid on Lacey's part, but not as stupid as Daniel Muir once again failing to bring down a QB when he's got the dude in his grasp. We saw Muir (who has played brilliantly all season) whiff on a sack against David Garrard in Week One, and he did it once again against Vince Young on Sunday.

Speaking of Vince Young, while he was awful throwing the ball in the redzone Sunday, and made some poor decisions that, to be honest, should have given him three picks on the day (one caught, two dropped) I must say that Vince has indeed improved. And yes, the Colts were given a gift with Nate Washington dropping that sure TD pass after he beat Jerraud Powers, but the Titans were also handed a gift later when Kelvin Hayden did not haul in Vince's terrible sideline throw. Had Hayden made that catch, it's a pick six the other way.

Is Vince a smart quarterback now? No. He's still pretty clueless reading defenses and making good decisions with the football. However, he did show significant improvement on Sunday throwing the football. Both of his TD throws were crisp, accurate, and thrown with velocity from the pocket. That's a good sign if you are a Titans fan. All this running around and option-draw-crap is fun for a while, but it doesn't consistently win you football games. Throwing accurately from the pocket does.

So, despite his terrible INT to Lacey in the second quarter, and his poor red zone throws, Vince did show me he has improved from the over-hyped sack of crap he was from 2006-2008. He's building on something. It's taken him four years to do it, but he has progressed.

With the Titans all but eliminated from the playoffs, all talk of Chris Johnson for MVP should cease. If it doesn't, the people screaming for it need to be ignored. Johnson is a magnificent player. He had averaged 160 yards a game during the Titans five game winning streak. However, the Colts bottled and contained CJ, holding him out of the endzone and preventing any splash plays. This was a game the Titans had to have to stay alive; the kind of game an MVP steps up and helps his team win. Johnson didn't do that today, and much of the reason why he didn't was the Colts defense. Though Johnson is no longer a serious MVP candidate, I personally believe he has supplanted Adrian Peterson as the best RB in football. Johnson can do everything Peterson can, and also NOT fumble.

Overall, this was an impressive win. To be that physical and that mentally tough against a team that was red hot coming into this contest sends a message. I know that as a fan I am very proud of how this team has developed, despite injuries and other distractions this team has achieved some truly lasting feats. With the Saints defeating the Redskins in an overtime thriller, we have (again, for the first time in 89 years of the National Football League) two 12-0 teams in December. That's special. This Colts team is special. Enjoy the special.

Go Colts!

49ers in the redzone looking back, looking ahead

Fooch — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 16:00:19 -0000

by Donna McWilliam - AP

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This post is sponsored by Comcast and their NFL RedZone channel. If you want to see every touchdown from every NFL game as it happens as well as live look-ins to all of Sunday's games in key situations hurry up and get yourself Comcast's NFL RedZone Channel.

As we head into tomorrow's must-win affair, I thought it would be interesting to look back at what I would imagine is a somewhat rare performance in the redzone by the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars entered the red zone four times against the 49ers and came away with zero touchdowns. While many teams will go 0-fer in the red zone, the Jaguars also managed to only come away with a single field goal. On the other three possessions, David Garrard fumbled twice and Josh Scobee missed a 21 yard field goal. I wonder how often we'll see that kind of ineptitude inside the red zone by an opposing offense?

Coming out of that game, the 49ers continue to put together an impressive red zone resume. While they rank 17th against the rush in the red zone, the 49ers are #1 against the pass and #2 overall. That pass number (-120.7%) is even more impressive when compared to other teams. New Orleans is a close second at -117.1%, but then the #3 team, the Oakland Raiders, is half the 49ers at -60.4%.

Any thoughts as to why the 49ers have been so solid against the pass in the red zone? Maybe it's just the fact that they've been "relatively" weak against the run, and teams elect to run the ball in from down close. Of course, the RZ run defense is at 1.3%, so it's not like they're completely awful by any stretch.

And so the 49ers head into tomorrow's game against a Seattle offense that is atrocious passing in the red zone, but is #3 in rushing offense in the red zone. It will be interesting to see how that is affected with Julius Jones in the starting lineup instead of Justin Forsett. And if Forsett is limited or inactive with the quad injury, how will that affect the Seahawks red zone performance? The 49ers, after all, employ a bend but don't break defense that seems to consistently allow teams to drive a decent distance before stiffening up. I've found the Seahawks to be quite the conundrum this season. On the one hand, they've been pretty poor a good chunk of the time and should be beat-able. On the other hand, I'm convinced they're going to catch the 49ers with their pants down and that scares the crap out of me given the stakes of this game.

Three And Out: Useless Predictions For Sunday's Game

Tim — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:05:23 -0000

I'm going to get this post up as quickly as I can, lest another Texan be ruled out for Sunday's tilt against the Jaguars and render my rock-solid (read: baby soft) predictions moot. To wit:

1. Your Houston Texans couldn't manage a single sack in their first meeting with the Jags. This time, the Texans shall notch three (3) sacks of David Garrard. One for Mario Williams, one for Antonio Smith, and one for Connor Barwin.

2. No Rashean Mathis means a big day for Andre Johnson. I foresee 132 yards receiving and a TD for 'Dre. Bonus prediction: James Casey scores his first NFL touchdown.

3. Chris Brown manages a rushing touchdown. Without fumbling the ~~game~~ ball away. He also finishes with 73 rushing yards, on 16 carries, on the afternoon.

PUT YOUR NAME ON IT: As I told the guys on Big Cat Country Radio, I'm predicting a Texans win, based almost entirely on the notion that the Texans are going to go on a run over the next four weeks, in order to suck us all back in to believing in them before laying a monstrous egg against New England in Week 17. Crushing disappointment is our destiny. It's coming, but not this week. Texans 34, Jaguars 28.

Texans vs Jaguars coverage

Texans Five On Five: Week Thirteen

Jake — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 02:59:49 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

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The Houston Texans go to Jacksonville on Sunday to face the Jaguars. In Week 3, Chris Brown fumbled away a win on the goal line in Houston. Now the Texans will look for revenge. Here are the five matchups I feel are most important in order for that to happen.

1. Tyron Brackenridge vs. Andre Johnson - It's hard enough to contain Johnson with everyone healthy, much less when you're missing your best cover corner, Rashean Mathis. The Jags sport the 26th ranked pass defense this season, of which Mathis was one of the few highlights. Now Brackenridge, how has given up a total of 251 yards and a touchdown in the last two games since taking over the starting role, will try and stop Andre, who will likely play inspired because of the last couple of games.

2. John Busing vs. Maurice Jones-Drew - The Texans run defense has turned a corner since the last time they played the Jaguars, mostly due to improved play from the safety position. Busing hasn't contributed to that improvement though, and had not started since Week 3 until he was forced back into the lineup last week because of a season-ending injury to Eugene Wilson. The reason he lost his job? Poor support to the run. Busing will be dropped in coverage more than Bernard Pollard, but he will still be required to come up to help bring Jones-Drew down.

3. Dunta Robinson vs. Mike Sims-Walker - Anyone who has regularly watched the Texans this year knows that Robinson has been abused regularly. Opposing #1 wide receivers have tallied 50 receptions for 639 yards and 5 TDs, which is slightly deceiving considering it doesn't take into account the many pass interference infractions Dunta's committed. Sims-Walker can claim 6 receptions for 81 yards of that total. I honestly don't understand why teams don't throw Robinson's way more often.

4. Mario Williams vs. Eugene Monroe - This one is a little obvious but pivotal nonetheless. The Jaguars have given up the 6th most sacks and the 88 times that David Garrard has been hit is the most in the NFL. It's been established that Williams is hurting, but he simply needs to be able to beat a rookie in a must win situation, period.

5. Gary Kubiak vs. Wasted Season - To say the season has been disappointing is an understatement, but it's not over yet. The playoffs is almost certainly out of the picture, but the first winning season in franchise history is not. The Texans under Gary Kubiak are ~~11-4~~ 10-5 in the last 5 games of the season over ~~the last 5 years~~ the Kubiak Era. Gary might be coaching for his job though. It will be interesting to see how his coaching demeanor changes, if any, now that his back is against the wall.

Greg Manusky Approval Rating, Week 12

Fooch — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 15:30:13 -0000

We return for our final approval rating of the week, for defensive coordinator Greg Manusky. A week ago things were looking pretty bad after Aaron Rodgers had his way with the 49ers defense. That abysmal showing saw Manusky's approval rating drop 20 points to 77%.

As we head into this week's poll, there are some similarities between the 49ers offensive and defensive performances against the Jaguars. Even with their 6-4 record, I was not sold on the Jaguars as a threatening team. Obviously they certainly could have beaten the 49ers given the 49ers inconsistent performances. However, just as the Jaguars defense was ripe for the 49ers passing attack, it seems like the Jaguars offense was ripe for the kind of problems the 49ers gave them.

David Garrard is certainly not a bad quarterback, but even as he does not throw many interceptions, he still puts the ball on the ground as one of the leading fumblers among QBs in the league. While Maurice Jones-Drew did gain ground on the 49ers, he was not able to break through into the end zone or for any long runs. In containing MJD (for the most part), the 49ers put Garrard in more of a playmaking position, and they were able to shut him down.

Will the defense be able to do that on Sunday against Seattle? Will a similar game plan work against the Seahawks? The latest FO rankings came out and the Seahawks (#22) are one spot below the 49ers (#21). Seattle is 22nd in passing and 23rd in rushing, so not exactly an overwhelming force. Of course, they've got a steady veteran QB in Matt Hasselbeck, who will be playing in front of his home fans. And their running game is showing marked improvement with Justin Forsett starting (the Minnesota game aside). What kind of game plan will Manusky need to draw up against the Seahawks?

Poll

Do you approve of the job Greg Manusky is doing as defensive coordinator?

Yes

557 votes

No

35 votes

592 votes | Poll has closed

Big Cat Country Radio 12/2/2009

Jonathan Loesche — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 12:49:47 -0000

Where: Click Here

When:10pm-11pm

The Jaguars return home from yet another dissappointing West Coast trip. Josh Scobee had his worst game since his rookie year, David Garrard was a human tackling dummy, and we still have no pass rush. The good news? We come home to play Houston, who may well have had their souls crushed last week by Indianapolis.

On the guest spot tonight, Tim from Battle Red Blog joins us to discuss what we can expect from the Texans this year. If you haven't read through either Q&A thread yet, I would advise doing so. Here is the one on BRB while here is the one Tim posted on BCC.

Week 12 Statistical Matchup Review: Jaguars @ 49ers

Florida Danny — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 01:00:16 -0000

Before I begin the matchup review, I just want to make a little bit of an editorial comment that seems pretty relevant in lieu of the past couple of weeks...

Some of you have been kind enough to give me kudos for practically writing a game recap before the game was even played the last 2 weeks. For sure, I've looked like Nostradamus with a blogging platform. However, I have to tell you, I'm reluctant to take much credit because it was the stats - not my wisdom - that resulted in my admittedly eerie accuracy.

What I will take credit for - and this is where I'd like to editorialize - is understanding that the stats, by themselves, are meaningless without proper application. Like "guns don't kill people, people kill people," the same can be said for statistics: "stats don't lie to people, people lie to people." Keep in mind that, each week, I'm looking at about 135 statistical matchups for the Niner game, almost all of which suggest one team has an advantage over the other. For instance, I could have easily told you last week that the Niners had an advantage on DEF given that JAX's OFF DVOA between the 40s was ranked 23rd, whereas SF's DEF DVOA between the 40s was ranked 5th. But what meaning would that have had? I'd say pretty much none. Sure they're two stats that are saying something, but what practical importance would they have had on the game as it was played? How could the 49ers have possibly exploited that matchup? By forcing JAX's OFF into the middle of the field? I mean, what's the DEF going to do? Let JAX gain yards when backed up deep in their own end just so they get them into their sweet spot?

So my point here is that the key to statistical analysis is in the practical application. The stats are just numbers; it takes the interpretation of a human being to prevent them from becoming lies. In general, interpretation is about looking at the stats, and seeing how applicable they are to the real world. In football, it's about viewing stats through the lens of Xs and Os, player skill sets, game plans, and everything else one would consider non-statistical.

In the context of game matchups, interpretation is about looking at each individual statistical matchup, and then determining whether there's a likelihood that a given pattern is going to have an effect on the actual game we're previewing. It's about detecting patterns of advantageous and disadvantageous matchups, asking oneself whether each team's wins and losses have been characterized by a given pattern, and asking oneself whether each team has the players and coaching style to exploit/nullify a given pattern.

This is what I try to do here on NN: give you the stats, give you my opinions based on the stats, and give you the non-statistical reasons why I don't think I'm hitting you with statistical smoke and mirrors.

With that said, let's begin with the 49ers-Jaguars matchup review...

After the jump, I'll write a tribute to myself chock-full of pats on the back and I-told-you-so's. Wait, no, um, inner voice, inner voice...What I meant was, I'll review the matchups...

TEAM MATCHUP # 2: PASSING IN THE RED ZONE

Before the game, I told you that the 49ers' OFF had a 111.8% DVOA advantage if they passed in the red zone, and the 49ers' DEF had a 156.6% advantage if the Jaguars passed in the red zone. Therefore, they needed to pass the ball in the red zone, and put JAX in passing situations if they reached the red zone. So how'd they do?

The Niners' OFF had 9 total snaps inside the red zone. Of these 9, they passed the ball 8 times, or about 90% of the time. Sounds like they followed my instructions. Of their 8 red zone passing plays, 5 were unsuccessful; but, of the 3 that were successful, 2 went for TDs. In other words, the 49ers scored a TD once every 4 times they threw the ball in the red zone. Taken together, I'd say both the frequency and success of their red zone passing suggests they indeed exploited their advantageous matchup against the Jaguars.

Meanwhile, JAX's OFF also had 9 snaps inside the red zone (none of which came during the first half, by the way). Overall, only 2 of these 9 plays, or 22.2%, were successful. However, both of their successful red zone plays came on runs, meaning that their success rate on red zone passing plays was 0%! Indeed, JAX's OFF totaled -2 yards, -26 net yards, 2 sacks allowed, and 2 fumbles when they passed the ball in the red zone. To say that the Niners' DEF exploited their advantage in this matchup would be putting it unbelievably mildly.

TEAM MATCHUP # 3: SHORT-YARDAGE RUNNING

In contrast to their red zone passing advantage on both sides of the ball, I mentioned before the game that the 49ers had a matchup disadvantage on both sides of the ball when it came to short-yardage running. Therefore, my remedy was that the OFF needed to pass the ball in short-yardage situations, and the DEF needed to keep JAX out of short-yardage situations.

Watching the game, there were 3 plays that made me say, "Wow, the 49ers are destroying the Jags today." All 3 had to do with this matchup:

On 4th and 1 from the JAX 37, Alex Smith hits Vernon Davis for a 30-yard completion.
On 3rd and 1 from the SF 13, Maurice Jones-Drew runs for -1 yards.
On the very next play, 4th and 2 from the SF 14, Justin Smith and Parys Haralson sack David Garrard, who fumbles.

So, the Niners' OFF nullified their disadvantage by passing the ball on 4th and 1, the Niners' DEF played better than expected by stopping MJD, which induced the Jags' into make a strategy-defying, matchup-ignoring decision (i.e., passing the ball) on the next play. When a team is exploiting their advantages and preventing the other team from exploiting theirs, it's a recipe for a blowout, and that's what we saw on Sunday.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 1: FRANK GORE VS. JAX PASS DEF

For this matchup, I noted that Frank Gore is one of the best pass-catching RBs in the league this year, and JAX's DEF is one of the worst at defending passes to RBs. Therefore, what I wanted to see was Jimmy Raye involving Gore heavily in the passing game.

It didn't take long for JR to make me happy: on the first play of the game, Smith completed a pass to Gore for 7 yards. Then, on the 2nd play, they threw it to Gore again! In case you're not counting, that's two plays, and two passes to Gore. In fact, 3 of Smith's first 4 passes, and 6 of his first 9, were to Gore! All in all, Gore was targeted on 10 of Smith's 41 passes, which means a full 25% of the passing game involved throws to Gore. Seriously, kudos to JR for reading my matchup preview.

Now, some of you might say, "Well, Gore only 2 yards per carry and 3 yards per target, so they couldn't have done that great in this matchup. Of course, you'd be right: only 2 of his 10 targets resulted in successful plays. However, in line with what I said in the intro, simply throwing the ball to Gore was what the pattern of stats (i.e., Gore's receiving advantage, JAX's run DEF DVOA, the OL's horrible ALY, SF's increased use of the shotgun, etc.), as well as Gore's skill set dictated that they should have done. Not to mention the fact that Gore lone TD in the game was of the receiving variety. So, there were both statistical and non-statistical ways that throwing the ball to Gore might have improved the 49ers chances of winning, and they did, in fact, score points using this strategy. Therefore, once again, I think they hammered a key matchup.

MISCELLANEOUS MATCHUPS

I'll keep these short and bullet-point style:

The 49ers had a matchup disadvantage against JAX in their nemesis, 1st-quarter OFF. I said they might have trouble again starting the game well. Turns out they did: 4.25 yards per play, 0 TDs in the 1st quarter.
JAX's DEF had been really bad when losing. I said this might offset how bad SF's OFF is while winning. Turns out it did: only 4.48 yards per play while winning, but 2 TDs to offset it.
JAX's DEF had been the worst in the league against shotgun OFF. I said the 49ers might want to use more shotgun. Turns out they did: 55.7% of their offensive plays were in shotgun, as compared to 40.0% going into the game.

BOTTOM LINE

Based on their performance in the key matchups during Sunday's game, here are the main reasons why the 49ers beat the ~~Packers~~ Jaguars:

They passed the freaking ball!
They passed the freaking ball in 3rd & short situations!
They made JAX pass the freaking ball in 3rd & short situations!
They passed the freaking ball to Frank Gore!
They passed the freaking ball from the shotgun!

Weird, that really looks familiar. Oh, right. It's what my before-the-fact interpretation of the stats said they needed to do to win. Like I said, no self-congratulaions in this post. ;-)

p.s. In the preview post, I threatened to apply for the 49ers' soon-to-be-vacant offensive coordinator position if they didn't throw the ball at least 40 times against the Jaguars. I'm seriously beginning to believe JR actually did read that post: SF threw it exactly 41 times, just enough to save his job...and keep me in mine.

*DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Based on his Nostradamus-like prediction abilities the past 2 weeks, should Florida Danny buy a lottery ticket tomorrow?

Yes

102 votes

No

81 votes

183 votes | Poll has closed