SB Nation - Maurice Jones-Drew

LoMo on the move: Patriots running back Laurence Maroney steps up

MaPatsFan — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 17:51:20 -0000

I love this picture of Laurence Maroney. Out of all the AP photos we use on this site, this has to be my absolute favorite. From a pure aesthetics standpoint, it's just a brilliant piece of photography. But the "emotion" in this shot conveys a whole lot more. Now I'm not one to walk into the Boston's Museum of Fine Arts, sit in front of a painting, and contemplate the universe for hours on end; I'm more likely to contemplate a 4th and 2 with a beer in hand. Back to LoMo.

This is a great shot because it conveys a running back who appears to be turning it around. Laurence is putting his head down, dropping his shoulder, and powering through the hole. He's making himself "small" while his pistons pound him forward. And this is just one example of what we've seen lately.

It's as if Fred Taylor has a direct link into Maroney's helmet. The dancing he does hasn't necessarily gone away, but it has a different "tone" to it, that of patience and waiting for the hole to develop. If it doesn't develop, he goes elsewhere. That's downfield vision. And when it comes time to be tackled, he makes the defender know he tangled with LoMo. Punishment is the gift for getting in his way. That's the way a feature back should run. The term Steamroller comes to mind.

Many of us, myself included, have been critical of Maroney. He would dance behind the line and ultimately end up tangled in a pile with nowhere to go. This was incredibly frustrating and garnered Maroney lots of jeers from New England fans desperate for a running game. It was even more frustrating considering how sporadic the aerial assault has been. Yes, the yardage numbers are right up there, but TDs are not and RedZone efficiency hasn't cracked .500. We lost faith, but Belichick didn't. He was right.

Looking at the NFL stats for running backs, Laurence isn't lighting up the field: 23rd in yardage (735), 145th in yards per carry (3.9). Football Outsiders ranks him 22nd for DYAR and 24th for DVOA. The problem with the NFL stats is players with limited touches can rate highly just by having 1 or 2 big carries. Take, for instance, a player who runs once for 26 yards. His average YPC is 26 and rockets to the top of the list. Is that a good indication of his quality? Methinks not.

So, how can we get a good picture of how Laurence is doing? I took the liberty of downloading the running back data from NFL.com and carving it up a bit (Excel is a beautiful thing). My criteria was simple: the players had to be "feature backs", so I removed any back with under 10 attempts per game. This took out all the stupidity mentioned above (re: 1 carry for 26 yards, therefore an average per carry of 26) and "normalized" around RB's that actually grind it out week after week. I was worried about total attempts as well (ie: 20 attempts in only 2 games for 200 yards is a YPC of 10), but using average carries per game happened to eliminate most of that.

Some interesting tidbits about Laurence started to emerge: out of 38 backs, he tied at 27th for average yards per carry (3.9 yards), was 12th in first down percentage (22.2%), and tied at 9th in TDs (9 TDs). Everything else was relatively mediocre, or trailing the pack. But 2 stats mentioned above are the most telling: 12th in first down percentage (1.8 yards from leader Chris Johnson) and 9th in TDs (6 from leader Maurice Jones-Drew). This means he can be counted on for a first down conversions and he will score when in the RedZone. That's what matters to me.

Not burning up the field compared to other backs, but burning it up when he needs to. Like, when our aerial assault has lost an engine or 2. Stay healthy LoMo and keep pounding the rock. Glad to see you've turned the corner.

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 15

TJ Johnson — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 16:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Kyle: Can I be Mr. Orange? Josh: Do your job. Convert this 3rd-and-2!

Browse more photos »

"You stats shouldn't play so rough. Somebody's gonna start crying."

--Mr. Blonde

Some teams bark all day, little doggy. And some teams bite.

Week 15 was supposed to be an easy caper for the playoff-bound teams in the NFL. Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Indianapolis were all looking to get in, do their job, and get out--unscathed and without too much gun play. Only two of these teams (Philly and Indy) actually escaped with a win.

As usually happens when jobs get botched, the better team isn't done-in by the play of the other team. No, that's rarely how it happens. Usually it's an inside job.

This was certainly the case with your Denver Broncos. While the Oakland Raiders showed they had some ammunition, it was the Broncos that turned on themselves. The Broncos were too careless (missed tackles, bad angles, and missed blocks). They were too cute (a pass to Ryan Clady and a QB sneak on 2nd down). And in the end, there they were - wounded from field goals and gashed from the running game, while JaMarcus Russell walked away with the cash.

Welcome to another week of The Stats That Don't Lie, your weekly rendezvous where we pick our statistical aliases. These are the stats that don't believe in tipping. They are the stats that don't talk, no matter how much you torture them. As always they are Turnovers, Field Position, Time of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

This week's edition is real special, too, and not just because I'm making Reservoir Dogs references. It's because I'm finally going to exhaust Denver's 3rd-down woes. (Note: I tried to link all references for Broncos fans born after 1990).

The Big Picture & 3rd Downs

Usually I put up a graph each week expounding upon the turnover margin in Denver's win/loss. This week, Denver won the turnover battle and lost the game, so it's a good time to look at what has been another key area for Denver (we´ll deal with turnovers shortly). It´s no secret that Denver has struggled on 3rd downs. But just how bad has it been? Not as bad as taking one to the gut, but let´s take a look:

The blue line is the league-average per game since the Broncos' bye week. It has ranged from 37.13% to 37.79%. This is normal. The league average usually runs between 37% and 38%. The orange line is Denver's 3rd-down percentage per game through the bye week as well. In Denver's last 8 games, they've manage to best this league average but one time. In 3 of the 8 games, they didn't even hit 30%. As you'll see in the rankings, they are averaging a paltry 34.53% per game.

Clearly, this is a huge problem. Consider the 15-week average per game of the playoff teams if the season were to end today, in addition to the four biggest threats to Denver's wild-card spot.

Indianapolis: 51.61%
San Diego: 41.81%
New England: 42.45%
Cincinnati: 41.71%
Baltimore: 40.08%
Denver: 34.53%
Jacksonville: 43.08%
PIttsburgh: 39.11%
Miami: 47.10%
Tennessee: 40.00%

Someone on this list doesn't have a cool-sounding 3rd-down rate, and we are not talking about the Colts. Even though the Broncos are within one standard deviation (about 6%) from the mean of 37.71%, the Broncos are fortunate that their defense has produced some timely turnovers this year. One might even wonder how a team with such a bad 3rd-down percentage is in the position of making the playoffs. For now, let's chalk it up to orange-and-blue leprechauns and move on.

3rd Downs - Hooked On a Feeling

The real question is, "Why have the Broncos done so poorly on 3rd downs all year long?" Stats can only do so much of the heavy lifting, but we'll give it a shot, anyway.

Many have postulated that it's the offensive line, the play calling, or Knowshon Moreno himself. Some view Peyton Hillis as the bionic man. Perhaps he should be getting more carries. Or some want to blame a certain bad ass with the finest neck beard this side of the Mississippi. I'm hearing none of it.

I have a different theory. It's less complex. And it doesn't require pointing fingers.

Simply, it's this team's first experience with "Erhardt-Perkins" offense. As Tom Brady has repeatedly alluded, getting used to this complex offensive system, installed with the Patriots by Charlie Weis, takes at least two years to get used to, if not more. But let's not take Brady's word for it, let's look at the numbers.

We simply need to go back to the 2000 Patriots, when Weis installed the offense and look at the Patriots' 3rd-down conversion rate between 2000 and 2001. In 2000, the Patriots were 35% on 3rd downs. In 2001, that number jumped 6% to 41%. Now, there is one big difference between 2000 and 2001. And that's Tom Brady at quarterback. But it was his second year in the system, and I don't believe Brady's numbers would have been the same had he had that first year as a rookie to learn Weis's system.

The Football Outsiders, who many stats geeks worship like I do Pam Grier, would agree. They've had a theory going about 3rd downs for several years:

Teams which are strong on first and second down, but weak on third down, will tend to improve the following year...over time, a team will play as well in those situations as it does in other situations, which will bring the overall offense or defense in line with the offense and defense on first and second down.

This year Denver has rushed for 977 yards on 1st down, good for 4th-best in the league in that category. Here is the precise breakdown on 1st and 2nd downs when compared to 3rd down:

1st Down-Average Running Play: 4.2 yards; Average Passing Play: 7.02 yards
2nd Down-Average Running Play: 4.71 yards; Average Passing Play: 5.99 yards
3rd Down-Average Running Play: 2.62 yards; Average Passing Play: 5.19 yards

Your eyes do not deceive you. On 3rd down, Denver struggles. If the Football Outsiders' theory is correct (it has been over the last 7 years) and history repeats itself with the Broncos' learning curve with respect to the "Erhardt-Perkins" system, we are looking at a team next year which is poised to improve drastically in 3rd-down efficiency. Take it to the bank.

Stuck in the Middle With You on 3rd-and-Short

Since we are beating the 3rd-down horse, it's also useful to bring up the play calling on 3rd and short. A lot of fans have been lamenting the Broncos' struggle on 3rd and short and hoping the team would pass more often. While this is completely understandable, just know that the percentages actually favor running in these situations--by a good margin. Once again, I present to you one of the little gems from the Football Outsiders:

On average, passing will always gain more yardage than running, with one very important exception: when a team is just one or two yards away from a new set of downs or the goal line. On third-and-1, a run will convert for a new set of downs 36 percent more often than a pass. Expand that to all third or fourth downs with 1-2 yards to go, and the run is successful 40 percent more often. With these percentages, the possibility of a long gain with a pass is not worth the tradeoff of an incomplete that kills a drive...

...Teams pass roughly 60 percent of the time on third-and-2 even though runs in that situation convert 20 percent more often than passes. They pass 68 percent of the time on fourth-and-2 even though runs in that situation convert twice as often as passes.

As bad as Denver has been in short-yardage situations this year on 3rd and 4th down, it's still not swimming upstream against these percentages. And if you don't think McDaniels knows the percentages, you are fooling yourself. Still want more proof? Consider that on 3rd-and-3 (or less):

Kyle Orton is 7 out of 15 passing (54%)

Knowshon Moreno is 10 out of 15 rushing (67%)

Moreno just happens to be converting on 3rd-and-3 (or less) about 24% more often than when Orton throws in the same situation. This is slightly higher than the Football Outsiders would estimate, but we are dealing with a relatively small sample size. However, the point is still valid. McDaniels is generally making the right call when he continues to run the ball on third and short.

For those that believe Peyton Hillis is Charles Bronson, ask yourself if he could have done any better than 10 out of 15? If you can look yourself in the mirror with any seriousness and answer, "yes," than we'll just have to act like professionals. Maurice Jones-Drew has picked up 17 out of 22 (77%), so you'd be putting Hillis in that kind of company. Given that Hillis has only averaged 3.4 in his 5 carries this year up the middle, I'm skeptical. Moreno has had 62 carries up the middle and averages 3.7.

The Offensive Line - Hold It...A Little Big Longer

If you want to point to the offensive line and losing Ryan Harris, then we've got some common ground. This loss is a lot bigger problem than McDaniels would like you to believe. Here is what Denver was averaging per carry on the ground (pre-Oakland) through 14 weeks:

Left End Left Tackle Left Guard Middle Left Middle Right Right Guard Right Tackle Right End

4.2 4.6 5.2 3.6 3.4 4.4 5.5 4.7

If you were scouting the Broncos and you saw these numbers, it would become clear to you very quickly that the strength of this offensive line was on the right side of the ball in general and on the outside edges--at least with respect to running. It's even clearer when you look at the right-end runs and left-end runs, because Daniel Graham is shifting in the formation and these numbers are directly related to him. If the left side of the line were as good as the right, you would expect the numbers on the right-end to be similar to those on the left-end. This isn't a knock on Ryan Clady--far from it if you look at the numbers off left tackle. It's simply a recognition of the importance of Ryan Harris (and also Polumbus, who has played well in the running game).

This is data a casual fan comprehends, but it is also backed up by a short-yardage asssessment as in BShrout's impressive analysis here. In addition, it's backed up by slightly more complex statistics as well, as witnessed by Jeremy Bolander's excellent post last week, in which he applies Sharpe Ratios to running plays behind each of Denver's offensive linemen. Bolander cleverly noted the reward gained (represented by the standard deviation) in-and-above a "safe" play of a zero yard gain:

...the ratios for running behind Weigmann, Hochstein/Hamilton are generally quite poor, at 0.14 and -0.18. Clady is better, clocking in at .300375 while Kuper dominates in short yardage at 1.78885. Too often, however, the one cut has been designed to bend back away from Kuper's stellar blocking. When the blocking scheme is more straight ahead, we seem to take advantage of his side more.

This certainly correlates to a general strategy of Denver being more effective when running to the right side.

When taken as a whole, all of this would suggest that Denver is going to continue to struggle a bit on 3rd downs. The quarterbacks and receivers continue to learn the complex "Erhardt-Perkins" scheme, and the absence of Harris and the play of the offensive line, while it hasn't been horrendous, has shown consistency issues. As other teams continue their run slants, rush blitzes, and stacking the line of scrimmage, (as both the Raiders and Colts did), look for McDaniels to counter with strategies like play action.

Team Rankings:

Here's where the Broncos stack up against the rest of the league after Week 15. As always, remember these are averages/game (in my mind a better measure than aggregate numbers):

While Denver continues its spiral on 3rd downs (the St. Louis Rams rank just below them), they still rank high in both giveaways (which I consistently label "turnovers") and turnover margin per game. Don't turn the ball over. Play good defense, capitalize on the mistakes of the other team. This was, is, and will continue to be their ticket to winning.

Given Denver's ranking in average starting field position (28.98-yard line) per game, I was pleasantly surprised in the Oakland game to see Kenny McKinley back returning. I thought he showed a great burst and quickness that will only get better. Although I had been clamoring for Alphonso Smith, I'll take what I can get. I was never sold that Eddie Royal was the longterm answer. Not because he wasn't capable, but because we'll never see another Tim Brown in this league. I think letting Royal be a receiver is the right move. And, outside of the San Diego game, the numbers weren't eye-popping (23.9 yards/kick). Royal was being asked to do too many things. When you've got jokers to your left and Raiders to the right, you need a guy who is focused on returns and rested between each series.

There's not much to say about Denver's time of possession other than they are sitting right at the league average.

From the rankings above, one team you must absolutely love is the Green Bay Packers, even after their loss to the Steelers in Week 15. I know, I know, the Steelers threw the ball all over the yard on them. But Aaron Rodgers is as underrated as Jay Cutler is overrated. They rank 1st in turnover margin, 2nd in giveaways, 1st in field position, 4th in time of possession, and 5th in 3rd-down efficiency. While the Packers are no Foxy Brown, they are still a whole lot of playoff team. I continue to think that the Packers can play with the Saints and Vikings, and I would personally love to see Rodgers send Favre back to retirement. If that makes me a Favre hater, then okay, but I prefer to think of it more like I am a hater of the Mainstream Media crush that exists for so-called "gunslingers." I mean, it's not like the the guy is taking anyone on a magic carpet ride with his arm this year anyway.

The teams that are the most dangerous from these rankings are the teams that rank high in both turnover margin and 3rd-down efficiency, because once the playoffs start, you need a team that at once doesn't make errors and which capitalizes on errors. And a team that can "make plays," which is just code for converting on 3rd downs. Right now, I would say this list includes, in no particular order:

Indianapolis
San Diego
Green Bay
Minnesota
New Orleans
New England
Cincinnati

Each of these teams is in the top ten in both categories, although the Chargers seem to have the most momentum of the whole bunch, as much as it pains me to say it.

Last week a few of you pointed out that perhaps I should finally let up on Jay Cutler as he continues his assault on history. I thought about it for one Sunday, but before I could say "Like a Virgin," "True Blue," or "Borderline," Culter had thrown 25 picks for the year. T his is the most in NFL history for a non-rookie quarterback in his first year with a new team. That's a strange stat indeed. Suffice to say the guy is to interceptions as a Tarantino movie is to F-Bombs. You lose count 20 minutes in.

Imagine how bad it would be if the Bears didn't rank 5th in average starting field position. Actually, it might have worked out better for the Bears if they didn't rank so high because then Cutler wouldn't begin so close to the red zone.

Week 15 - The Games

Let's start where we always begin, with the Broncos-Raiders game Since I was a big advocate two days ago of simply forgetting the game, I won't say too much, except that given the Raiders turned the ball over twice, it would appear that Denver would have won this game. But, if you read these ramblings columns on a weekly basis, you know I am a big "context" guy. Yes, turnovers are bad. Yes, if you are plus-1 in turnover margin, the stats say you'll win about 70% of the time. Get to plus-2 and you're at 80%. Yes, all of this is true. However, you also know that turnovers committed early in a game can be overcome--even by a decade of washed-up first-round draft picks known as the Oakland Raiders. Oakland committed one of its turnovers on its 2nd drive (1st quarter) and the other on its 8th (3rd quarter). But they had 12 drives in the game with which to work.

And what did Denver do with these two turnovers? They put up 10 points off of them. And yet they still did not win. This is what happens when you crawl around at 26% on 3rd downs. Not even Lee Marvin could get you out of that one.

If you want another interesting stat that hasn't received any attention from the Denver game, it's the following: on Oakland's scoring drives, they ran the ball 13 times for a total of 94 yards. This represents an average of 7.2 yards per carry, which is almost what Oakland's average was for the entire game running the ball. But the standard deviation of this data set was 8.8 yards. This is my smarty-pants way of saying that the Raiders running game was feast or famine. They had a lot of 1- and 3-yard carries, but also several carries over 20 yards.

Everyone is commenting on the New Orleans-Dallas game, so I might as well throw in my two cents. New Orleans had 11 drives in the game. They committed turnovers on 3 of them. That left them with 8 drives. And the Cowboys got out to a big lead, so in the 2nd half they ran the ball effectively and killed the clock, which led to their domination of the time of possession. Did I mention that Drew Brees was 14% on 3rd down? Given that New Orleans is usually at 43% on 3rd downs, this was quite a feat. Dallas got pressure, and they got it with their front 4.

Two other games I briefly want to mention. First, the Jags-Indy game. Two weeks ago, I developed a profile of what a Colts loss would look like, based on their losses since 2005. In Week 15, the Jacksonville Jaguars almost matched that profile. They ran, and ran, and ran, rushing 34 times in the game. They tried their very best to keep Peyton Manning off the field. They matched the Colts step for step on 3rd down. And what happened? Oh, just a 93-yard kickoff return from the Colts for a touchdown. Manning lives to fight another day.

The second game I wanted to point out is the Eagles-Niners game - if for nothing else, to simply point out that San Francisco was 0% in 3rd-down efficiency. The Niners also turned the ball over 4 times. But somehow they avoided the blowout and made a game of it. They even managed an average of 5.9 yards per rush against the Eagles. The Eagles can be beaten.

The Summaries

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

7 teams had 0 turnovers. 5 won (71%); For the season, 67/87 (77%)
8 teams had 1 turnover. 4 won (50%); For the season, 75/129 (58%)
7 teams had 2 turnovers. 5 won (71%); For the season, 56/122 (46%)
6 teams had 3 turnovers. 2 won (33%); For the season, 22/67 (33%)
2 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 4/29 (14%)
2 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 0/14 (0%)

Week 15 - Big Picture

The team that won the turnover battle (removing ties) won 8 of 11 games played (73%)
5 games were tied in the turnover battle.
The team that won the time of possession battle won 11 of the 16 games played (69%).
The team that had better third-down efficiency won 13 of the 16 games played (81%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 7 of the 16 games played (44%).
There were 4 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In all 4, the same team won on the scoreboard (100%).
The winning teams this week averaged 1.25 turnovers, 31:32 in time of possession, 44.32% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 30.82-yard line.

Top 5 in Week 15:

Top 5 in giveaways: 7 Teams Tied with 0.
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.Carolina 2.Dallas 3.Jacksonville 4.Pittsburgh 5.Cleveland

Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.Giants 2.Indy 3.Jacksonville 4.Green Bay 5.Dallas/Saint Louis
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.Baltimore 2.Cleveland 3.Tampa Bay 4.Buffalo 5.Giants

Running Totals, Season (through 15 weeks):

224 games have been played this season
75.80% (or 141/186) were won by the team with less turnovers (removing ties)
38 games were tied in the turnover battle
66.52% with a better time of possession
68.75% by the team who won on 3rd down
69.64% by the team that won the field-position battle.

15-week League Averages:

15-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.71

15-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:10 (thanks to OT games)

15-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.79%

15-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.91-yard line

The Look Ahead

Looking ahead to Philadelphia, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd-Down Efficiency

Denver 1.36 30:03 29.98 34.53%

Philadelphia 1.36 28:20 31.17 37.90%

The teams are even on turnovers. The good news is that Philadelphia's time-of-possession stat tells you one important thing about this game. The Eagles are a passing team. This plays into Denver's strength. It's also encouraging that as a passing team, the Eagles' 3rd-down-conversion percentage isn't higher. This again bodes well for Denver, especially if Denver can shut down DeSean Jackson on special teams.

The traditional thinking is that home field advantage adds about 3 extra points of value. In this game, I'd also remove that off the top because this is a homecoming for Brian Dawkins. With the kind of love that city has for BDawk, you might as well add three points for the visitors. Dawkins is going to put the lime in the coconut and drink em both together after this win. Ramblers, start ramblin'.

Hail, Brian Dawkins!!

Last stat: 99.99% (percentage chance that they would let Brian Dawkins have the alias Mr. Black, without fighting).

Recounting the Decade: The Jaguars of the 2000's

Jonathan Loesche — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 22:54:50 -0000

Brad Messter: The only player to play all 10 seasons in Jacksonville

The Jaguars have only one game remaining in the first decade of the 21st century and I felt it was time to look back at what this decade has been for this franchise.

The Jaguars entered 2000 with a seemingly loaded team. The 1999 Jaguars went 14-2 and were one half away from going to the Super Bowl. Golden Era hallmarks like Mark Brunell, Tony Boselli, Jimmy Smith, and Keenan McCardell were still here and it seemed as though the Jaguars were on there way to another playoff appearence. However, injuries, age, and bad free agent signings took their toll on the team and it limped to a 7-9 finish.

The 2001 Jaguars began to see the affects of Salary Cap Hell become apparent, but enough pieces were still seemingly in place for one last run. Instead, the Jaguars limped to 6-10.

The 2002 team may well have been the least talented team ever fielded by any NFL franchise this decade. I'm not talking about strictly results, but in terms of the players. The affects of Salary Cap Hell were felt in full, with the most prevalent example being the Houston Texans expansion draft. The Texans needed to take Tony Boselli, Seth Payne, and Gary Walker just so the Jaguars wouldn't violate NFL salary cap rules. Even then, the Jaguars had so much "dead money" that they could only afford to sign bottom feeder free agents.

The 2002 team went 6-10 that year, losing multiple games in the final minutes. Looking back, I have to give credit to Tom Coughlin for the job he did with that team. It only committed 15 turnovers all year and played well above it's head. However, with attendance sagging and the massive salary cap mess a direct result of Coughlin's actions as GM, he would be released following the season.

In came Jack Del Rio, then a young defensive coordinator with the Carolina Panthers. Del Rio was coming off being in charge of the NFL's #2 unit that had led the Panthers to a surprise Super Bowl run.

The 2003 Jaguars had to deal with many of the same problems the 2002 team had. The Jaguars still had to deal with salary cap hell, but brought in several pieces that would affect the team for years to come. Mike Peterson, Byron Leftwich, and Rashean Mathis were all brought in via either free agency or the draft.

The 2004 Jaguars were finally free of the salary cap devil and the results showed on the field. The signature win of this season would be a hard fought battle in Green Bay that perhaps, more than any other, empitomized what Jack Del Rio wanted out of this team. However, the very next week was a game that symbolized the worst of Jacksonville this decade. The Jaguars lost 21-0 to the Houston Texans in front of 30,000 fans with the playoffs on the line.

The 2005 Jaguars managed to return to the playoffs for the first time since 1999. The biggest developement of this season would be the beginnings of the two year long Garrard/Leftwich conflict. Leftwich was injured in Week 12 against Arizona. David Garrard would lead the Jaguars to a 4-1 record in Leftwich's absense. However, Leftwich would be given the start against New England in the playoffs, and proceeded to lose 28-3.

The 2006 Jaguars were perhaps the real peak of the Jaguars this decade. The team was powered by a bruising running game featuring Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. The defense was a wall that couldn't be broken. However, inconsistent play at QB sealed this team's fate. After a 44-13 thrashing of Indianapolis, the Jaguars lost 3 straight to end the year thanks to David Garrard's inconsistent play.

The 2007 team was the closest the Jaguars have come to recapturing their late 90's glory days. The brusing running game returned, and David Garrard finally unseated Byron Leftwich for good. However, the defense began to decline, but it was masked by an offensive revival. The Jaguars would go 11-5 and gain the signature win of the Decade, a thrilling win at Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round.

The 2008 team had a lot in common with the 2000 team. With expectations high, years of bad free agents and bad drafting caught up with the team. I'll leave it at that.

Finally, the 2009 team reminds me alot of the 2003 team Del Rio inherited. Their is much work to be done, but you can see the future is bright for this group.

Player Of The Decade: Fred Taylor, RB

Despite some, ahem, interesting back and forths with him and Del Rio this week, Fred Taylor defined this decade for the Jaguars. Taylor rushed for 9316 yards and 42 touchdowns between 2000 and 2008.

Dud of The Decade: R. Jay Soward, WR

While Shack Harris gets the brunt of the 1st round hate, Soward is still the reigning king of Jaguar 1st round busts. Soward played just one season in Jacksonville, and even that year was filled with suspesnions, missed practices, and was just a total mess.

Best Trend: The Jaguars discovering the running game

Under Tom Coughlin, the Jaguars were never a running team. The only time the Jaguars had a threatening running game was during the 1996 playoff run with Natrone Means. Other than that, the Jaguars were never known as a physical team. That immediately changed under Jack Del Rio, first with Fred Taylor, than with Maurice Jones-Drew.

Worst Trend: The Jaguars draft really starting in the 2nd round

R.Jay Soward, Byron Leftwich, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones, and soon Reggie Nelson

All 1st round picks for the Jaguars that have failed to live up to expectations and are now gone.

Defining Moment: David Garrard's 4th down run vs Pittsburgh

Tnemom Gninifed: Losing 21-0 to the Houston Texans

Best Draft Pick: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, UCLA

MJD has been this franchise's best pick since the last RB they picked early, Fred Taylor. He already holds the franchise single season TD record and will hold the franchise TD record before next season is finished.

Worst Draft Pick: Byron Leftwich, QB

I know most would expect R.Jay Soward here, but Leftwich's pick set off a chain reaction here. Leftwich's pick influenced the Jaguars to take Williams and Jones, along with passing up players such as Terrell Suggs and Ben Roethlisberger. Not to mention the players they did take weren't worth their weight in lead.

Best Free Agent: Mike Peterson, LB

Despite how things ended in 2008, Peterson defined the Jaguars defense under Del Rio's early years. He was tough, hard hitting, and didn't take $hit.

Worst Free Agent: Jerry Porter, WR

I was going to go with Bryce Paup, but he was signed for the 1999 season. Porter defined the 2008 Jaguars fall from grace with his me first attitude and million dollar a catch results.

Recap Week Fifteen: Colts 35 - Jaguars 31

BigBlueShoe — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 17:36:49 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

5 days ago: Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne catches the go-ahead touchdown pass in the fourth quarter during an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Thursday, Dec. 17, 2009, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/Phil Coale)

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After a while, the numbers start getting scary.

When you see them placed before you, in black and white with pretty charts to bracket their authenticity, you cannot help but stare at them as if they were an alien language unearthed somewhere in the Gobi desert by wandering nomads. They seem too fantastical, too unrealistic. Yet, they are reality. They are happening.

When the dust settled on the Indianapolis Colts 35-31 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, the numbers from the game, and the accomplishments for certain individuals and the team, began to crystallize.

Only three team in NFL history have started a regular season 14-0: The 1972 Miami Dolphins (undefeated, won Super Bowl), the 2007 New England Patriots (undefeated regular season, lost Super Bowl), and now our Indianapolis Colts.
The win was Indy's 23rd straight win in the regular season.
It was the 7th fourth quarter comeback win of the year, also an NFL record.

And when you start looking at how the game, and the individual accomplishments in that game (Dallas Clark having the best season of any TE in NFL history, Reggie Wayne passing Raymond Berry for #2 all-time in Colts receiving, etc.), the numbers truly ring home just how special and talented this group of Colts really are.

But more impressive than the numbers and the stats was the drive, the passion, and the determination to win a game which, quite frankly, "meant nothing." All week long, we had wondered who was going to play, and for how long. Would Peyton Manning sit after a few series, or a quarter? By halftime, Manning was 12-12 with two TDs and the Colts up 21-17 on the road against the desperate and determined Jaguars team.

Though "meaningless," the Colts certainly did not play and coach this game as if they were simply looking to rest. The fought to win; truly win. And win they did. And after Jacob Lacey put the finishing touches on another brilliant come-from-behind victory, the win provided yet another bold claim for Peyton Manning to win his NFL record 4th MVP award.

(AP Photo/Phil Coale)

Before we start jumping into all the wonderful positives that came out of this game, let's get some of the concerns out of the way. First off, concern-trolling, or hand wringing, about the defense at this point is silly. For fourteen friggin weeks, we've seen them play like a top 5 group. One game should not offer cause for concern, especially when you consider that this game was played only four days after the defense had one of it most physical challenges in ages against the Denver Broncos. The D was hurt, tired, and playing against a tough, physical opponent whose game plan was to take advantage of the Colts fatigue. Factor in that Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis only played on passing downs, and that Indy was without Jerraud Powers, and the performance through the first three quarters was not all that surprising.

Also, consider that in quarter four, the Jaguars were shut down and shut out by this fatigued defense, and that Maurice Jones-Drew was virtually a non-factor in the final quarter when his team needed big plays to win the game.

Then, there were the field conditions. Last night, they were in piss poor shape. Colts announcers Bob Lamey and Will Wolford commented on the conditions all evening, saying how how patches of field were getting ripped up all over the place. Players slipped and fell all game long. The field contributed to Pat McAfee's "meh" punts and kick-offs, and likely contributed to both teams doing a sub par job covering on special teams (with the Jaguars looking much worse than the Colts).

So, while some might moan and complain that the 31 points will hurt Indy's defensive scoring average, or others might fret that this game "exposed" the Colts defense, my response is to calm down, stop being such a stats loser, and look at the game with the proper perspective. This was a game of attrition. The opponent wanted to wear the Colts down, and beat them senseless in the fourth quarter. They failed, and a big reason why they failed is the Colts defense.

(AP Photo/Phil Coale)

Last night's game saw several players step up and deliver in the clutch, something the Colts have seemingly re-written the history books doing this year. Much maligned by Colts fans this season, the game was a bit of a coming out party for Colts strongside linebacker Philip Wheeler. Wheeler was handed the starting job during OTAs, but after pre-season he was benched due to ineffective play in favor of Tyjuan Hagler. Several weeks ago, Hagler was placed on IR with a torn biceps muscle and Wheeler, one again, was the starter. While we have definitely seen flashes of improved play (like the forced fumble on the goal line again Laurence Maroney and the Patriots) overall Wheeler's play has been sub-standard.

That was, until his 11 tackle effort last night, with several of those tackles key plays to stop human-wrecking-ball-Jones-Drew.

There was also Eric Foster, who played at both DE and DT last night. Foster notched two absolutely HUGE sacks in the game, with one causing a Garrard fumble on the Jaguars opening drive that should have been recovered by Gary Brackett. It wasn't, and the Jags kicked a 50-yard FG. Foster earned his second sack with 3:03 left in the 4th quarter, ending a Jaguars drive as they tried to reclaim the lead following Peyton Manning's 65 yard TD bomb to Reggie Wayne, which ended up being the game-winner.

(AP Photo/Phil Coale)

Speaking of Manning, this game, just like last year's contest in late December (almost to the day) against the Jaguars, might have locked up another MVP award for the best QB in the NFL. Other than Dallas Clark bobbling a sure first down that hit him square in the hands (with the deflection getting picked off by Daryl Smith), Manning was virtually flawless. For the second game in a row, he threw 4 TDs. His 134.4 QB rating in the game, against a playoff-caliber team on the road, is the kind of performance that locks up MVP awards. All the voters watched that game, and if they did not come away impressed they should have their voting rights stripped from them while a midget kicks them repeatedly in the nuts.

Unless Drew Brees looks equally impressive this Saturday (at home, not on the road like Manning) against the Cowboys, Manning likely has gained enough support to win his NFL record 4th MVP award.

Overall, I cannot shower enough praise on Colts coach Jim Caldwell, who managed this game exceedingly well. Freeney and Mathis are nursing injuries, and you have to think that if Tony Dungy were still coaching that both players would not have played. Caldwell placed the two stud pass rushers on a "pitch count," using them only on passing downs and in the fourth quarter. The result was David Garrard playing rather poorly.

Yes folks. He played poorly overall.

When you average 5.6 yard a completion, and 4.9 yard per passing attempt (as Garrard did), that is indeed playing poorly. 40 attempts and only 223 yards is pretty "ugh." Garrard also had a near disastrous fumble and he threw three INTs. The game was close because the fumble was not recovered by the Colts and two of Garrard's three INTs were dropped by Antoine Bethea and Kelvin Hayden. As many of you know, I'm not a Garrard hater or anything. I personally think he is a fine QB. But last night, he got lucky on several key plays. His luck ran out in the fourth quarter, where Garrard was simply pitiful. He had three chances to help his team score and possibly retake the lead, but instead was forced to punt once, took a key sack on the next drive, and on the final drive threw an INT to Lacey at the Colts 33 yard line.

To Garrard's credit, he is indeed a tough guy. He took a vicious hit from Eric Foster late in the game, and it seemed that for a couple of series, Garrard might have thought his name was "Batman." However, he didn't leave the game and didn't call a timeout to deal with the injury. Again, serious tough guy. Major props.

When all is said and done, you have to tip your hat to the Jags. We joked this year that they were "dumpster fires," but last night they played all out, guns blazing. They had fire, sans dumpster. They played the way a team desperate for a playoff spot should play. Special thanks to the Jaguars fan community at Big Cat Country for a fine week of blogging.

With the Colts 14-0 for the first time in franchise history, the discussion now will shift to "going for perfection." Myself and several of our writers here will pontificate on this subject for the next few days, and I'm sure many of you readers out there have your own strong opinions one way or the other. But, for me, after watching last night's contest, and seeing how this team has played all season long, my opinion now has changed somewhat.

The games "mean something" now, and I think the Colts should not rest any starters for Weeks Sixteen and Seventeen. This is a special group, and the deserve have the best players out there for four quarters these next two games.

Go Colts!

Comcast Presents: The Jaguars Offensive Line

Jonathan Loesche — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 21:45:50 -0000

This post is brought to you by Comcast and the new NFL Red Zone channel. Catch every touchdown from every game, only on NFL Red Zone.

The good news was that the Jaguars managed to convert when they were in the red zone. Maurice Jones-Drew finally broke his touchdown slump to tie Fred Taylor's single season touchdown record. It is the first time in weeks the Jaguars got points from all of their red zone trips, even if they only had two of them.

In fact, this is the first time the Jaguars got points out of all of their red zone possessions since playing Kansas City on November 8th. It was bittersweet though, as the Jaguars failed to score the game tying touchdown when it was needed, and had to settle for a FG.

Where are the Jaguars problems in the red zone centered? Obviously ball security is a big part of it with the absurd amount of red zone turnovers the team has committed, but I think the deterioration of the offensive line is another major piece.

Once again we'll look at Pro Football Focus' numbers on the offensive line. Eben Britton has been playing like a man possessed in recent weeks. I know Terry blasted him for missing a critical block in the Miami game, but has been playing far better than he was in the beginning of the season. It will be a joy to have him on the right side for the next decade.

Eugene Monroe on the other hand has been going back to Inconsistent-ville after having a solid middle part of the season It is good to see Monroe has only had one truly bad game since Week 2 (San Francisco), and hopefully the lumps he's taking will serve him well next season. It will be an excellent measuring stick for him this week if Freeney does go for Indy on Thursday.

Uche Nwaneri is the Jags best offensive lineman according to PFF, but he has also struggled recently. Nwaneri has still been the pillar of the offensive line this season, a shock considering he was probably the name everyone forgot to mention in the preseason. This is jar on the shelf working to its finest.

Vince Manuwai played well last week, but that is an outlier in a series of consistently poor play. It is sad to see this from Manuwai, who I thought deserved to inherit Fred Taylor's old title of "Player who's been screwed out of the most Pro Bowls by playing for the Jags." He was the only lineman to have a good game against the Dolphins, so maybe he'll use it as a building block like Britton did a few weeks prior against Buffalo.

While former Mr.Consistent Brad Meester is the 33rd ranked Center, remember there's only 32 teams, according to PFF. I'm just in shock when I look at this graph. There is a reason why Brad Meester has made the second most starts in franchise history, and this isn't it. I expect we'll see a center taken early in April.

What do these numbers tell me? We have three young players who are growing into good players in Monroe, Britton, and Nwaneri. We also have two older players that are showing us why you can't afford to remember yesterday at the expense of tomorrow in Meester and Manuwai.

Red Zone running plays are designed to go up the middle and blow defensive players off the line of scrimmage, the exact thing the Jaguars can't do at the moment. Until that changes, the Jaguars will continue to struggle to run the ball in the red zone.

Defense leads the way as Dolphins defeat Jaguars

Matty I — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 05:40:15 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

Miami's defense did an excellent job of containing MJD.

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This is the time of the year where you take wins any way you can get them. While it wasn't pretty at all and sure was stressful at times, the Dolphins went up to Jacksonville and knocked off a Jaguars team that had just one home loss all season heading into Sunday, improving to 6-0 in December under head coach Tony Sparano.

In doing so, the Dolphins did what they were looking to do - make next week's game in Tennessee against the Titans yet another important must-win game as they look to work their way into the playoffs. As for the playoff picture itself, there's some info about that below. But enjoy the fact that as Dolphin fans, we have yet another meaningful December football game to look forward to. After starting 0-3, that's all us fans can ask for.

Just keep winning. Pretty or ugly. Big win or nail-biter. Doesn't matter to me. Just keep winning.

It's all about the defense
Earlier this week, we talked about how important it would be to contain Maurice Jones-Drew. He's the most explosive player on that Jacksonville offense and the Dolphins were struggling against the run over the past few weeks. Heading into the game, the Dolphins were allowing an average of 127 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry over their last five. But on Sunday, we saw this Miami defense make a stand. Actually, we saw them make multiple stands, holding Jones-Drew to just 59 yards rushing (3.3 ypc) in the process.

Perhaps the most impressive stat on Sunday, though, was how the Dolphins held the Jaguars to just 4/17 on third or fourth down. That's ridiculous, really. And it's just proof of how dominant this defense was and of why this game really shouldn't have been as close as it was.

Quite frankly, we saw this Dolphin defense dominate on Sunday. It's that simple. The Jaguars had just 217 yards of offense. Of that total, 63 yards came on one play. On that play, Sean Smith did a poor job of biting on the double move. But it's important to note that Gibril Wilson was really the guy who blew the coverage. He was supposed to have inside contain in that bracket coverage. But he also "took the cheese" of the Torry Holt double move, allowing Holt to make the big play. Of course, the defense rebounded by holding Jacksonville to a field goal on that drive.

The Jags gained 68 yards on that drive. They also gained 62 yards on their third possession of the game - which ended on a MJD touchdown run. But on Jacksonville's 10 other possessions, the Jaguars gained just 87 yards of offense and averaged just 2.4 yards per play. Those 10 possessions include the Jaguars going "3 and out" on 6 of their first 8 possessions. That, my friends, is domination.

The defense also put together their second consecutive scoreless fourth quarter. In doing so, the Dolphins limited Jacksonville's offense to just 57 yards of offense on four fourth quarter possessions. That's how you win football games even when your offense sputters in the second half. Kudos to every single player on that defense (except for maybe Gibril Wilson) for an outstanding performance.

The "Henne to Camarillo" connection
All season long, I've been waiting (and hoping) to see the Greg Camarillo we saw last season before he went down with his knee injury. On Sunday, I saw that Camarillo. It was a terrific sight to see.

Camarillo picked on this Jaguar secondary all game long, catching all seven passes that were thrown his way for 110 yards. This was Camarillo's best game since the game against Denver last season. And now after just catching three passes from week 10 against Tampa through week 12's loss to Buffalo, it seems as though Chad Henne is finally getting more comfortable with Camarillo - who has 11 catches for 171 yards over his last two.

Speaking of Henne, he's progressing pretty nicely, huh? No Dolphins quarterback has ever completed more consecutive passes in a game than Henne did on Sunday when he connected on 17 straight pass attempts - tying a team record set by Chad Pennington last season. But CP did it over the span of two games. And five of those 17 completions went to none other than the aforementioned Camarillo.

Yes, I know Henne also threw what could have been a costly fourth quarter interception. But again - I'm not too worried about it. I've seen enough from Henne to know that he'll learn from that mistake and he'll get better. The kid's gotten better every week. His accuracy is getting more consistent as the weeks go by. He looks more and more in command of this offense every time he steps on the field. And really, that interception was just a poor read - something he'll fix when he sees the film. But all in all, I continue to be impressed week in and week out with Henne - who is now 7-3 as a starting quarterback.

AFC Playoff Picture
For the Dolphins, it's pretty simple. First of all, they have to win their last three games. If they slip up, then it'll be very hard to squeak into the playoffs.

But the Dolphins can't get into the playoffs by just winning their last three. They need some help. In a nut shell, the Dolphins need either a Patriots loss OR a Ravens loss. If the Dolphins win out and NE was to lose once, the Fins would be division champs. If the Dolphins win out AND the Pats win out, then the Dolphins would need the Ravens to lose one game. If that was to happen, the Dolphins make it in as a wildcard.

So that's the situation. Three Dolphins wins AND either a Patriots loss OR a Ravens loss and the Fins are in the post-season.

QUICK HITS
More random quick thoughts on Sunday's win:

Interesting stat courtesy of Ethan Skolnick. The Dolphins faced 15 offensive 3rd downs. But their average distance "to go" on 3rd down was just 4.4 yards. And on 10 of those 3rd downs, the Dolphins needed just 3 yards or less. That's how you keep the chains moving. You put yourself in manageable 3rd downs by gaining positive yardage on first and second downs.
Ricky Williams went over 100 yards rushing for the fourth time in five games. But that doesn't overshadow his three fumbles. Luckily only one resulted in a turnover. But that one turnover cost the Dolphins at least a field goal attempt. This is nothing new with Ricky, though. Williams has fumbled 45 times on 2,422 career touches - or one fumble every 53.8 touches.
Speaking of mistakes, this game should not have been this close. But the Dolphins left so many points on the field. I think back to the terrible play call to hand the ball to Davone Bess on an end-around on first down from Jacksonville's 33 yard line. Terrible call there when Chad Henne was slicing up that Jaguar secondary and Bess isn't the guy who can turn the corner. Bess ends up fumbling and that stalls a drive that could have resulted in at least three points. On their next possession, a sack and a missed 38 yard field goal from Dan Carpenter (it was bound to happen eventually) squandered away another potential scoring drive. And then Ricky's fumble inside Jacksonville's 30 squandered another scoring opportunity. And that's why the Dolphins can out gain a team by 137 yards and win by just four.
Randy Starks is having just one hell of a season. On Sunday, Starks continued his Pro-Bowl caliber season by making a number of key plays - non bigger than his tackle for a loss on David Garrard on 4th down with under 90 seconds to play. It wasn't a sack (technically) because it was a called QB draw. Regardless, Starks just shoved his blocker back and gave Garrard nowhere to run. He's the defensive MVP of this team right now. Who would have thought back in camp that we'd be saying that?
Cameron Wake has got to play more. All he does is get to the quarterback. And now he has a bullrush to go along with his speed rush. For the second consecutive week, Wake made the game-clinching play - this time sacking Garrard on the game's final play. It's getting to the point where he needs as many snaps as possible on gameday. It's that simple.
Vontae Davis played very well today - after sitting out the opening drive, that is. It was called a "coach's decision" to start Jason Allen over Davis. But Davis was back out there following Jacksonville's first "3 and out" of the game. Vontae said after the game, "It was just one series. I'm not in the doghouse. It's all part of learning." Most likely, Vontae was late for something and this was his punishment. No big deal. What was a big deal was Vontae's play - doing an excellent job all game on Mike Sims-Walker, though Sims-Walker was slowed with a calf injury. Still, Vontae has the skills and swagger to be an elite corner eventually.
I've come to realize that Yeremiah Bell is every bit as good as he was last season. He could be a very, very good strong safety if only he had a capable free safety playing next to him. Gibril Wilson is obviously not that. Bell just seems to make big pass deflections in big spots and remains stout against the run.
Great job by the offensive line on Sunday. They protected Henne well all game long and gave Ricky room to run. Lousaka Polite was also excellent once again. He converted on 3rd and fourth downs when asked and continued his excellent lead blocking.

Something Special Brewin? Malcolm Jones Honored As Gatorade National Player Of The Year

Nestor — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 15:08:15 -0000

Many of us have followed college athletics long enough to know that we shouldn't always get too excited about hype around big time recruits. It is especially true these days in the world of college basketball. Sometimes recruits in hoops such as JF, AA, and KL live up to all the hype. Other times, well I don't think I have to go through the details of the Ben Ball ~~warriors~~ class of 2008 (you can also read the comments in this thread which will go back much further).

Same dynamics also play out in football to a certain extent (even though in football it takes recruits traditionally a year or two to make discernible impact in the program). I think we can write post after posts on who has worked out (MJD, Brian Price, Akeem Ayers, Rahim Moore, XSF) and who hasn't (Ben Olson, Aundre Dean ) in recent years in Westwood. Yet, every once in a while we read and hear about a recruit in football or hoops, and we can't help but hope for something special when everything looks and sounds right about his arrival to Westwood. Well, if you haven't yet then meet Malcolm Jones. He just became the first UCLA football recruit ever to be honored as the Gatorade National High School Player Of The Year:

The LAT writeup provides the eye popping numbers:

Jones, a running back-linebacker, has scored 109 touchdowns in his four-year prep career. This season, he has rushed for 2,156 yards, putting him 40 yards short of tying the single-season school record held by Marc Tyler. He has 36 touchdowns and is nearing 6,000 yards rushing in his career.

Jon Gold from the Daily News had the following comment from MJ's team-mate on how emotional he was yesterday:

"You should have seen the expressions on his face when he was walking out of class," Oaks Christian quarterback Nick Montana said with a wide smile. "He was with his family, biggest smile on his face; I haven't seen him smile like that in a while. He was tearing up a little bit - it was awesome to see."

Well congrats to Malcolm from the entire BN. We have a little more on him after the jump.

Gold sheds a little more light on Malcolm as a student and person off the field:

Jones maintains a 3.46 grade-point average and announced in early October that he would play for UCLA, choosing the Bruins over expected front-runner Stanford. Additionally, Jones is a peer tutor and a youth basketball volunteer referee.

"He's realizes I think that he's really blessed," Marshall Jones Sr. said. "He takes his blessings as something he should utilize for the good of himself and others. And that's what makes me proud of him.

"He's a better person than he is a football player."

He also has the right perspective heading into UCLA next season:

"I really wanted to go to a school where I can really make a name for myself, not just be the "next" star running back at a USC or one of those big-time colleges," Jones said. "I want to prove to everyone that I can really help turn the program around, get them back on top."

Sounds like a Bruin already. lol Here he was few weeks ago reflecting on his team's season, his commitment to UCLA, and the looming CIF playoffs:

Well, Malcolm is going to lead his 13-0 Oaks Christian team into tonight Northwest Division championship game against Gardena Serra. He has played on three consecutive section championship teams.

In terms of some previous history on this award, I should note in hoops it was KL and Jrue Holiday who were also honored as Gatorade NPOY (as I said in my opening grafs, we have mixed records). Previous honorees as Gatorade NPOY includes names such as Peyton Manning, Emmitt Smith and Jeff George. The list also includes Matt disrespected Barkely (won the award in his junior season), who hasn't really done all that much considering the talent he was surrounded with at Southern Cal.

All that said, it's still a big deal. As noted above Malcolm is the first Bruin recruit to win this award. As excited as we all are about him, what I am even more excited is listening to him, he comes as as the perfect Bruin in the mold of ATV. Keeping my fingers crossed, Malcolm experiences the same level of success as our current senior captain both on and off the field starting next year at UCLA.

GO BRUINS.

Jets Flight Connections 121009

dvdvil — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 13:15:55 -0000

HC Rex Ryan decided that QB Mark Sanchez will not play this Sunday. Rich Cimini reminds us that he thought of it first.

Fellow rookie and first round pick QB Matthew Stafford will not start either.

Fellow rookie and first round pick QB Josh Freeman is getting ready for the Jets game.

The Buccaneers have their work cut out for them, and having WR Michael Clayton might help.

The state of the upcoming opponent had nothing to do with the Sanchize being inactive. Attached to Dave Hutchinson's article are videos of Rex, Mark and back-up QB Kellen Clemens.

Hofstra product and Tampa Bay HC Raheem Morris knows the Jets just plan to run the ball anyway.

Clemens will get another chance to start, possibly his last shot to show what he can do. WR Braylon Edwards compares Kellen's situation to Browns QB Derek Anderson's experience.

The Jets and the Giants are keeping New York somewhat optimistic.

Former Giants RB Tiki Barber thought Mark would be okay to play.

Speaking of RBs, I once again urge you to vote early and vote often for Thomas Jones for FedEx Ground Player of the Week.

And again, you can send CB Darrelle Revis and other Jets all-stars to Miami by voting them in the ProBowl.

More connections after the jump.

Here is a nice summation of the Jets' clearest path to the playoffs.

ESPN.com says the Jets are in good position with their running backs.

RB Leon Washington is a big bargain. Browns HC Eric Mangini thinks highly of him.

Do the Jets actually have "the best front seven" out of the top five defensive teams right now?

This article names Darrelle Revis as Defensive Player of the Week.

This blogger compares Revis to 1994 Defensive Player of the Year Deion Sanders.

This blogger, for some reason, compares and contrasts the Jets to the Cowboys over the years.

Even K Jay Feely should have a productive Sunday for fantasy football. Pick Thomas Jones for your running back this week, as well as the Jets defense.

This article mentions Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew's no-TD play against New York, as well as his experience with Jets fans.

University of Washington QB Jake Locker looks at Mark Sanchez's decision to turn pro.

Even though Patriots QB Tom Brady recently became a daddy, he still made it to work on time, unlike these guys.

New England activated DL Titus Adams, who used to be on the Jets practice squad.

San Diego activated DT Antonio Garay, who used to be on the Jets practice squad.

Miami LBs Jason Taylor and Joey Porter did not practice.

Bills WR Terrell Owens says, "Just shoot me."

And lastly, here is a video of the Jets defensive players talking about their squad:

Dolphins vs Jaguars: Keys to Victory

Matty I — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 05:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Wilfredo Lee - AP

Let if fly!

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We're getting closer and closer to Sunday's big game between the Dolphins and Jaguars. For all intents and purposes, this game is essentially a playoff game - at least for the Dolphins, as every game has been since last week.

So let's get to my keys to the game. Last week, the Dolphins were three for three with the keys I highlighted. Let's hope for another outstanding performance.

Aggressively attack Jacksonville's secondary
I talked about this earlier in the week as well and I'm going to talk about it again because I think it's extremely important. I really hope that Dan Henning uses what he learned last week against New England - that Chad Henne can indeed win a game with his arm - and applies it again this week against an even worse (statistically) secondary.

Jaguar fans can come onto this site all they want and talk about how their cornerbacks aren't below average players. But without Rashean Mathis, who is again not expected to play, the Jaguars really don't have any cornerback that I'd be worried about throwing at. Don't get me wrong - Derek Cox, the rookie corner, seems like he's got plenty of potential. But when he's your best corner on the field, you got problems. He's allowing 64% of the passes thrown at him to be completed. On the other side, Tyron Brackenridge is giving up over 15 yards per completion and, quite frankly, should probably be no better than a fourth or fifth corner in the NFL.

I'm not trying to trash their secondary. But I just can't believe Jacksonville fans will come on here and defend their 23rd ranked pass defense - a unit that is allowing 242 yards per game - and say that they hope the Dolphins pass against them. This is a pass defense that gives up 7.2 yards per attempt, has surrendered 20 touchdown passes (more than even Miami's secondary has), and lets opponents complete a ridiculous 65.5% of their pass attempts. For comparison's sake, the Dolphins are only allowing opponents to complete 57% of their pass attempts.

Now I'm not saying that we should forget about Ricky Williams and the ground game. I certainly don't want to see Henne throw over 50 passes again. But let's not be afraid to attack a secondary that let Alex Smith throw for 232 yards and two touchdowns just two weeks ago.

Contain the hyphens
I think the Jaguars lead the NFL in longest last names among offensive starters. But both of the "hypheners" - yes, I made up my own word - are very good players.

The Dolphins need to contain Maurice Jones-Drew as best they can. He's fourth in the NFL in rushing yards and first in rushing touchdowns. And we can't forget how talented MJD can be catching the football out of the backfield as well. I'd be lying if I didn't say how worried I am about the Jaguars getting Jones-Drew in space against our inside linebackers. We all know that one thing our two inside backers are not is quick. They're big and powerful - but have no shot at making a play on a guy like MJD in open space.

Luckily, Jones-Drew hasn't looked like himself since his 120+ yard performance four games ago against the Jets. Since then, he has carried the ball 64 times for just 217 yards in three games, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry. That includes a game against Buffalo - one of the NFL's worst rushing defenses - in which MJD gained 66 yards on just 25 carries. If the Bills can do it, so can the Dolphins.

The other "hyphener" is, of course, Mike Sims-Walker. Sims-Walker is a big, physical receiver who is David Garrard's primary target through the air. He leads the Jaguars in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns (52-752-6). But he hasn't been the same receiver, it seems, over the past four weeks. In that span, despite being targeted 32 times, Sims-Walker has just 16 receptions for 198 yards.

It'll be interesting to see which rookie cornerback gets the job of covering Sims-Walker on Sunday.

Get the early lead
You'd obviously like to do this in every game. But I think it's especially important against a team with a great running back. And the stats back it up. The Jaguars are 2-5 when trailing at the half. And one of those wins was an overtime win at home against the terrible St. Louis Rams. But what's more telling is that the Jaguars are 5-0 when leading at the half. Why? I'd say that having a second half lead allows Jacksonville to really work Jones-Drew and the running game late in the game, wearing down a defense. From there, the play-action pass opens up as defenses get desperate to contain MJD and it goes downhill.

Again, not to hate on the Jaguars, but I'm just not a fan of David Garrard. And I'd love nothing more than forcing the Jaguars to abandon the run in the second half and put the game on Garrard's arm. This would allow the Dolphins to really pin their ears back and get after Garrard. The Jaguars surrender a ton of sacks - 34 on the season, to be exact. If the Dolphins can get a lead and force the Jaguars to throw, I think Sunday will be a fine day for Dolphin fans.

Dolphins vs Jaguars: Three Key Matchups

Matty I — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 05:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Lynne Sladky - AP

From the "phrases I never thought I'd say" file: I love me some VD!

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On Sunday the Dolphins play what is essentially their second consecutive playoff game when they travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars. In reality, every game from here on out is a playoff game for the Dolphins. One slip up and their playoff chances take a serious hit.

So with that said, let's talk about three critical matchups for Sunday's game:

Mike Sims-Walker/Torry Holt vs Vontae Davis/Sean Smith
Every single week it seems like I start off this post by highlighting our two rookie corners. So why stop now?

Truth be told, this is a very interesting matchup. Why? Because this will be an excellent measuring stick to see how far Vontae Davis and Sean Smith have come. They've had to go up against some of the game's best receivers over the past two months (Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Steve Smith, Marques Colston, etc...). But this week they get to face an up-and-coming star, Mike Sims-Walker, and an aging but crafty veteran, Torry Holt - which should make for some interesting moments.

Last week we saw Vontae Davis really play well. Yes, he was burnt on that early first quarter bomb from Tom Brady to Moss. But he showed how resilient he is by bouncing back and really defending Moss well from that point on. Davis shadowed Randy wherever he lined up - a first for the young corner - and he held Moss to just one more reception - for only eight yards - the rest of the game. And who could forget his huge interception in the endzone?

Meanwhile, Smith didn't have such a great day himself. He let Sam Aiken out-jump or out-wrestle a ball away from him, resulting in an 81 yard touchdown for the young receiver. He let Aiken get about five yards in front of him late in the game as well but lucked out when Brady just overthrew the open receiver. And then on that final Patriot possession, Aiken again narrowly missed a big reception when he beat Smith and got two hands on the ball only to not bring in the tough catch.

With that said, though, I'm still not worried about Smith. I'm every bit as confident in him as I was before the draft when I highlighted him as the number one guy on my wishlist. And I expect a bounce back performance on Sunday out of Smith - who has tweeted how excited he is for this game on Sunday.

It'll be very interesting to see how the coaching staff decides to match up our young corners. Which one gets the 6'2 Sins-Walker, who is quietly having a big season? And which one gets the 6'0 Holt, who remains a factor even at the age of 33?

Jaguars offensive line vs Dolphins front seven
One of the things I've been most impressed with this season has been the play of Jacksonville's two rookie tackles. That's right - they start rookies at both left and right tackle. Not too often you see that.

But from the games I've watched - which, truth be told, is not too many - Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton have been playing some good football. And that is part of the reason why the Jaguars have the 7th ranked rushing offense in the NFL. Of course, the biggest reason for that is the explosive Maurice Jones-Drew. Jones-Drew is having an outstanding season in his first year as the full-time back in Jacksonville. He's fourth in the NFL in rushing yards, leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns, and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Not too shabby.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, have been struggling of late against the run. Earlier this season, the Dolphins were one of the best in stopping the run. But thanks to many factors - injuries included - the Dolphins have fallen to 14th in the league against the run. And in their past 5 games, the Dolphins have allowed 127 yards per game on the ground and are surrendering 4.9 yards per carry. Not good.

However, two rookie bookend tackles does mean that the Jaguars are prone to surrendering sacks. The Jags have allowed 34 sacks this season - the 5th highest total in the league. Of course, the Dolphins didn't exactly do a great job of getting to Tom Brady last week. But Cameron Wake did make a play with under a minute left to force that errant throw by Brady that landed in Channing Crowder's arms. But outside of that play, Brady was pretty well protected.

What I'm hoping here is for Paul Pasqualoni to dial up some blitz packages designed to confuse these rookie tackles, keeping David Garrard uncomfortable all game long.

Dolphins wide receivers vs Jaguars cornerbacks
Last week the Dolphins went into that game against the Patriots with every intention of letting Chad Henne air it out. Against the NFL's 13th ranked pass defense (statistically speaking), Miami's receivers did an excellent job of giving Henne places to go with the football.

On Sunday, the Dolphins will face the NFL's 23rd ranked pass defense - a unit allowing 242 yards per game through the air and letting opponents complete over 65% of their passes. They will still be without their top corner - Rashean Mathis - meaning Tyron Brackenridge will get the start again opposite of Derek Cox. Neither of those two corners are very good. Cox is allowing 64% of the passes thrown his way to be completed while Brackenridge allows over 15 yards per reception.

Let's see if this group of receivers can again come up big in a big game and put some points on the board in Jacksonville.

SB Nation - Maurice Jones-Drew

LoMo on the move: Patriots running back Laurence Maroney steps up

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 15

The Big Picture & 3rd Downs

3rd Downs - Hooked On a Feeling

Stuck in the Middle With You on 3rd-and-Short

The Offensive Line - Hold It...A Little Big Longer

Team Rankings:

Week 15 - The Games

The Summaries

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

Week 15 - Big Picture

Top 5 in Week 15:

Running Totals, Season (through 15 weeks):

15-week League Averages:

15-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.71 15-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:10 (thanks to OT games) 15-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.79% 15-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.91-yard line

The Look Ahead

Recounting the Decade: The Jaguars of the 2000's

Recap Week Fifteen: Colts 35 - Jaguars 31

Comcast Presents: The Jaguars Offensive Line

Defense leads the way as Dolphins defeat Jaguars

Something Special Brewin? Malcolm Jones Honored As Gatorade National Player Of The Year

Jets Flight Connections 121009

Dolphins vs Jaguars: Keys to Victory

Dolphins vs Jaguars: Three Key Matchups

15-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.71

15-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:10 (thanks to OT games)

15-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.79%

15-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.91-yard line