SB Nation - Brad Meester

New York Jets Run Defense vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Run Offense

John B — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 14:14:47 -0000

Jacksonville has one of the game's most explosive backs, Maurice Jones-Drew. He reminds me a lot of Tennessee's Chris Johnson (or Leon Washington if he was a full time back). Jones-Drew is small, but his blazing speed makes him a dangerous weapon. He's already got 737 yards on the ground, a 5.1 average, and 11 touchdowns. To combat him, we may see more of the big 4-3 with Ellis and Douglas at end, Pouha and Green at tackle, and Scott, Harris, and Pace at linebacker the Jets showed against Miami to slow down the run. The good news is this run defense won't necessarily take the teeth or aggression from the pass rush. The Jets did have 6 sacks while focusing on the run against Miami.

Jones-Drew's backup, Rashad Jennings, is a rookie from Liberty. For my money, he was one of the steals of the Draft. He has a very similar skill set to Shonn Greene, big and bruising between the tackles with a surprising second gear of speed. He's only averaging between 2 and 3 carries a game, but he can be dangerous.

Jacksonville's offensive line is much better run blocking than pass blocking. The rookie tackles, Eugene Monroe and Ebon Britton, who have struggled at times in pass protection, have been good opening holes for Jones-Drew. So have guards Uche Nwaneri and Vince Manuwai. Backup Maurice Williams has been arguably better than they have so we could see him in the lineup. Center Brad Meester has had problems, though. He'll have a tough time handling Pouha on his own, which means we'll likely see the Jaguars try and swing Jones-Drew outside plenty.

Quick Bytes: 11/2/2009

Jonathan Loesche — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 16:03:11 -0000

More photos » by Wade Payne - AP

about 1 month ago: Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson (28) leaves Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Daryl Smith (52) behind as Johnson runs for an 89-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Nov. 1, 2009. The Titans won 30-13 for their first win of the season. (AP Photo/Wade Payne)

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Jaguars' defense running on empty | Jacksonville.com
The Jaguars defense gave up a franchise record in total rushing yards (305) and to a single rusher (228.)

iJax | Jags Train Off the Tracks to Hope Town
Cole Pepper put's it blunlty, this loss meant a loss of hope.

Run records for Jags, good and bad - AFC South - ESPN
Maurice Jones-Drew joined Barry Sanders and Frank Gore as the only running backs to score two 75+ yard touchdowns in the same game. The only problem was that was our entire offense.

Wilford: Official should be ashamed of call - AFC South - ESPN
Ernest Wilford is still shaking his head at the 15 yard "taunting" penalty he received, and I can't blame him.

Rapid Reaction: Titans 30, Jaguars 13 - AFC South - ESPN
Paul Kuharsky give's his thoughts on the Jaguars loss to the Titans

Baffling Jaguars find a new way to lose | Jacksonville.com
For once, Gene Frenette write's a column I agree with. The Jaguars' inconsistency has reached a maddening new level under Del Rio. Either fix it or be gone.

Jaguars Notebook: Loss to Titans exposes cornerback issues | Jacksonville.com
Whether or not Reggie Nelson is a corner, if you can't tackle, you can't play. Also, Brad Meester started his 136th career game, tying him with Fred Taylor for the second most in franchise history. Congrats Brad!

More shuffling doesn’t help Jags’ offensive line | Jacksonville.com
Inserting Tra Thomas in a left tackle certainly wasn't the answer on Sunday. I'll have more of my thoughts on that later.

Report Card: Jaguars vs. Titans | Jacksonville.com

COACHING F

It’s hard to argue against the initial strategy of attacking the Titans’ pass-challenged defense through the air. It didn’t work because the Jaguars were simply outplayed in the trenches. With the Jags trailing 20-13 in the third quarter, backup running back Rashad Jennings was stopped for 1 yard on third-and-3. Why go to Jennings in that situation when you’ve barely trusted him to carry at all this season? The troubling thing over how the Jaguars failed to seize the momentum after they tied the game is it continues a Jekyll-and-Hyde pattern that has been evident for much of the Jack Del Rio era.

Revised Top 10 Prospects to Watch

Jonathan Loesche — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:30:31 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

The only reason I tune in to FSU games anymore.

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The college football season is beginning to make it's home stretch run and it's time to once again look at players who may find themselves in Black and Teal this upcoming season. In an attempt to keep this is true to form as possible, main stays Ndumakong Suh and Eric Berry sadly make their departure as the Jaguars are not nearly bad enough to even sniff them in next April's draft.

The more I've been thinking about it, the more I think a quarterback make's sense in the first round of the draft. To that end, the current Top 10 to watch is as follows

1. Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State, Jr

Anyone who can stomach to watch a full game of FSU football this season will come away utterly impressed with Ponder. The Junior QB has made a light year's worth of advances since his troubled sophomore campaign. Behind a now solid offensive line, Ponder has light up the NCAA, ranking in the Top 5 of virtually every relevant stat against BCS competition. If Ponder declares, expect him to have a Mark Sanchez like rise.

2. Jake Locker, QB, Washington, Jr

I went back and forth between putting either Locker or Tony Pike of Cincinnati at the #2 spot. In the end, Pike is injured and Locker has more upside, so I went with Locker. Locker may be something of a project for a first round pick, but I like the grit I see from him. Also, the last time the Jaguars had a scrambling QB from Washington, it worked out well.

3. Morgan Burnett, SS, Georgia Tech, Jr

Burnett may be the 2nd best safety in the draft with Taylor Mays' inconsistency. A big, strong, hard hitting SS, Burnett would be the 2nd coming of Donovan Darius for the Jaguars. If a QB isn't available, he may be the BAP in the 15-20 range.

4. Rolando McClain, MLB, Alabama, Jr

If the Jags are going to keep running the 3-4, they'll need to upgrade their personnel this offseason. McClain is a beast of a linebacker and may be the best natural 3-4 linebacker in the draft. Another tough decision here between McClain and Brandon Spikes, but I felt McClain works better in a 3-4.

5. George Selvie, DE, South Florida, Sr

Was it really just two years ago Selvie was the most feared pass rusher in college football? Injuries and lack of production have forced him off the map and out of the first round. Selvie projects as a 3-4 OLB in the NFL and unless he has an excellent offseason, may slide into the third round.

6.Matt Tennant, C, Boston College, Sr

A quality guy with a high motor, Tennant would fit the Gene Smith profile. Brad Meester isn't getting any younger, and some fresh blood in the interior is needed. Tennant is a 4th or 5th round prospect.

7.Vince Oghobaase, DT, Duke, Sr

Oghobasse is one of the best DT in the country not named Suh or McCoy. He projects as either a 3-4 DE or a 4-3 defensive tackle. Henderson was linked to several trade rumors in the last offseason and his stock has risen since with his terrific play this season.Ogho would be an excellent replacement paired with Terrance Knighton.

8. Josh Pinkard, SS, Southern Cal,Sr

Pinkard can play both corner and safety, making him a versatile player for the Jaguars secondary. He has some medicial and injury issues that may cause him to drop and make him a value pick.

9. Mitch Petrus, G, Arkansas, Sr

Petrus is a solid guard who plays with a mean streak against the run. However, he is somewhat undersized and that could cause him to drop.

10. Dennis Pitta, TE, BYU, Sr

Pitta served on his two year mission, making him older and more mature than most rookies. He's one of the best receiving tight ends in college and would add another weapon on the team.

-Jonathan Loesche

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 12:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Tom Uhlman - AP

2 months ago: Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer (9) is sacked by Denver Broncos linebacker Mario Haggan (57) in the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009, in Cincinnati. Denver won the game 12-7. (AP Photo/Tom Uhlman)

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Happy Tuesday, friends. It's a happy week in Broncoland, hopefully one of many to come this season. There was some good, some bad, some lucky, and some spectacular on Sunday. We'll discuss it all, like we always do, and we won't apologize for winning, because a win is a win. Ready.... BEGIN!!!

1. The Broncos on Sunday reminded me of the Patriots of about 2005, only operating at about 60% of potential. The defensive looks were varied, the tackling and coverage were solid, and the whole was generally greater than the sum of its parts. On offense, there was a lot of commitment to running the ball, some screening, and mostly lower-risk stuff when they did go downfield. The team played like they expected a close game, and did the sorts of things you have to do to win close.

Consider the following:

a. The Broncos committed no turnovers, and forced two. (I personally count the bad snap on the FG, which doesn't technically count, and don't count Scheffler's interception, which does.) I now reiterate my belief that turnovers are the number one determinant of winning and losing.

b. The Broncos committed few penalties, and they were minor ones, the obvious exception being the Casey Wiegmann holding call on the successful 4th-quarter Correll Buckhalter screen.

c. Brett Kern had one notable shank, but mostly punted very well, helping the Broncos in field position. (I now reiterate my belief that field position is the number two determinant of winning and losing.) The return work for the Broncos was very shaky all day, and I would say the Broncos lost the field position battle by a bit. It would have been a lot worse without Kern's solid work, and some good coverage on punts.

d. The clock management methodology at the end of the first half was right out of Bill Belichick's book, and we can expect to see it repeatedly over the coming years. I want to talk about this in some detail, because it's going to become a key part of the character of the Broncos football team.

The unsophisticated observer of football tends to think that a "2-minute drill" calls for clock conservation and a sense of urgency. You know, people like Dan Fouts. It's not that simple, though. You have to consider field position and how many timeouts you have, and do a mental calculation of the probability of your offense scoring, and failing that, the probability of pinning the opposing team deep, and giving them no good shot at scoring, should you have to punt.

The Belichick 2-minute ethos is simple. The number-one objective in a 2-minute situation is to prevent the opposition from scoring. The number-two objective is to score yourself. Deep in your own territory, you make the clock run, almost always by handing off from a spread-out shotgun look. The Patriots have been doing this with Kevin Faulk forever, and I knew that's what the Broncos were doing on first down on Sunday.

Eddie Royal returns the ball to the Denver 17, with 1:48 to go, and 2 timeouts.

DEN 1-10 own 17 yard line 1:48 Handoff to Correll Buckhalter for 7 yards

DEN 2-3 own 24 yard line 1:17 Handoff to Buckhalter for 6 yards

DEN 1-10 own 30 yard line 1:01 Screen pass to Buckhalter for 7 yards

DEN 2-3 own 37 yard line :40 Incomplete deep out to Jabar Gaffney

DEN 3-3 own 37 yard line :34 WR screen to Eddie Royal for 11 yards

Timeout Denver

DEN 1-10 own 48 yard line :26 Deep out to Jabar Gaffney for 21 yards, out-of bounds

DEN 1-10 CIN 31 yard line :20 Incomplete downfield pass to Tony Scheffler (near fumble)

DEN 2-10 CIN 31 yard line :14 Inside handoff to Buckhalter for no gain

Timeout Denver

DEN 3-10 CIN 31 yard line :05 Matt Prater makes 48 yard field goal, Denver leads 3-0 at halftime.

This is very good clock management. The likelihood of driving 83 yards in 1:48 with 2 timeouts, and getting a Touchdown is pretty low, particularly when the offense has struggled all half. The likelihood of getting close enough to try a field goal is much higher.

If you go 3-and-out really quickly on 3 incomplete passes, there is suddenly about 1:35 left, and it's 4th and 10 on your own 17. In 2008, over 2,293 punts in the NFL, the average net outcome was a change in field position of 39.53 yards. Add that to 17, and you just gave the ball to the other team at their own 43, with 1:20 or so to go. They only have to go 20-25 yards to get into field-goal range, which is really manageable. That is why your starting field position matters to your strategy in a compressed-time situation (I don't like the term 2-minute drill. This is the real thing, not a damn drill. It's the old Boatswain's Mate in me). When the Broncos have the ball inside their own 30 or so, expect them to always follow this strategy at the end of the first half.

2. Information from my eyes, from a second pass of the Broncos-Bengals game:

a. The Broncos have a terrific set of CBs. Champ Bailey showed his worth, and Andre' Goodman made one outstanding downfield play, deflecting a ball, and generally had good coverage, even when balls were completed near him. The guy who continued to flash star ability, though, was Alphonso Smith. The Broncos are never going to regret taking this guy.

b. Brett Kern really punted well Sunday, except for one shank. The pass rush bailed him out of that, which I will get into a bit later. For awhile, Kern was the best weapon the Broncos had.

c. Knowshon Moreno ran sideways way too much Sunday. Bobby Turner will certainly be on his back about that, and let's hope the lesson sinks in very quickly.

d. I am not the first person to say this, but I wanted to see more of Peyton Hillis carrying the ball. I wonder if Spencer Larsen's injury caused the staff to shy away from it, since Peyton is really now the only available FB for awhile.

e. Andra Davis had a fantastic game, with 9 tackles, 3 for losses, and 1 sack. He played downhill all day, and thumped some Bengals. That's exactly what we need from him.

f. We need Wesley Woodyard to come in for Davis in coverage situations too, and we got some return on that, with his interception.

g. Wrapping up in the tackling game needs to definitely be better.

3. Information from my eyes, other games' version:

a. The Cardinals really struggled to protect Kurt Warner on Sunday, and it was the main reason they lost to the 49ers. The Niners sacked him 3 times, but hit him a lot of times more than that, 8 according to ESPN.com's box score. The 49ers also struggled in protection, but in key moments, they kept Shaun Hill upright.

b. Warner hasn't looked quite right to me, through the preseason, and into today's game. I haven't figured out what it is yet, but there's something wrong. It's almost like his personal sense of timing isn't there, like it is when he is going well. It will bear watching in the coming weeks, but if he falls off really sharply, the Cardinals will have something to worry about.

c. I really don't like Shaun Hill's skills, but he finds a way to win games. I can see why Mike Singletary likes him, because he is sort of similar to Jim McMahon from a skill-set perspective. I kind of feel bad for Mike, actually, because at no point in his career, as either a player or a coach, has he ever had a big-time QB to work with.

d. Cullen Jenkins is a beast, and he dominated against the Bears on Sunday night. Nobody on the Chicago line could handle him. I've said it before, but his injury almost single-handedly sunk the Packers season last year. When you have a guy like him, you have a really good chance to be stout against the run with 7 in the box, which is what their old Jim Bates-inspired (Bob Sanders-coached) defensive scheme is predicated upon. When they had to stack the box, they couldn't cover well enough anymore, and all of a sudden, they're a 6-10 team.

e. I believed it, and said it on Draft Day, and I believe it even more strongly now. The Packers messed up drafting B.J. Raji, despite the strong likelihood that he'll be a good player. They badly, badly needed help at Offensive Tackle, and they should have either traded up for Eugene Monroe or traded down a bit and taken Michael Oher. Chad Clifton is horrible on the left side, and Allen Barbre, the new RT, looks quite a bit worse than Mark Tauscher, the out-of-work, washed-up guy he replaced. This is a big enough problem to potentially make them struggle to make the playoffs, and it's otherwise a Super Bowl-caliber team.

f. Jay Cutler flat-out choked with that 4th pick. And like on the first three, Cris Collinsworth blamed the receiver. Guys, Cutler doesn't need enabling. That's the lesson from Denver that nobody seems to learn. (He needs to be coached with a foot in his hind parts, actually.) While it is true that the guy (Johnny Knox) needed to shield Al Harris from getting inside him, it was a terrible decision to go there anyway. KC Joyner's bad-decision metric would kill Cutler's game Sunday, because he threw the ball straight to the other team 6 times, with them only catching 4 of them.

g. There were a lot of dropped passes across the NFL this weekend, it wasn't just the Broncos and Bengals. I don't know if receivers were just rusty or what, but it was pretty bad.

h. I loved the call on third-and-one with 1:18 to go in the Packers-Bears game. Aaron Rodgers threw a great ball and hit Greg Jennings for a 51-yard TD pass. Jennings ran a textbook go-route on the play, widening out on Nathan Vasher, and then taking a great line to the catch spot. They exploited the hell out of the whole Bears secondary on that play, and it was an easy pitch and catch.

i. NBC criticism time. Bob Costas doesn't know what the hell he is talking about. (The Colts lost their outstanding receiver Anthony Gonzalez today! Really? Outstanding?) Rodney Harrison can barely get a clean sentence out, and reminds me of Emmitt Smith already, as a TV guy. Tony Dungy is going to get old quick, and the holdovers from the NBC studio still aren't that good either, though I'm glad to be rid of Jerome Bettis. Collinsworth is really hit or miss, but mostly missed Sunday night, and Al Michaels just seems like he doesn't care anymore. Twenty years ago, he was pretty good, but now, he's the worst play-by-play guy in the business. He blows more calls, and misspeaks more often than anybody. It's like a George W. Bush speech with him, every game. It makes me wish Madden 10 was real life, and Tom Hammond was in there instead. Michaels' toupee is atrocious too, but that isn't exactly new news.

j. I got beat up for this a couple weeks ago, but I still think Joe Flacco is better than Matt Ryan, and I want to reiterate it. He can do everything Ryan can do, but he has much more zip on his fastball, and he's significantly more mobile, too. It's kind of reminiscent of the Chris Paul/Deron Williams debate (now, non-debate) in the NBA. Both are really good, but the one who was drafted lower is a bit better.

Flacco was hurt by a lot of drops on Sunday, but he personally looked really good, and was the primary reason Baltimore beat Kansas City. The Chiefs tied the game at 24 with 5:21 to go, and Flacco went and won the game, beating a blitz with a great deep ball to Mark Clayton (who I should have started in the official MHR fantasy league).

k. Tamba Hali continues to look pretty good as a LB in the 3-4 for Kansas City, but Mike Vrabel alternately looked lazy and washed-up on the other side. Big things are allegedly expected from Vrabel this year, but I sure can't tell.

l. My brother Chris (a fellow Broncos fan, and sometimes MHR lurker) was stuck with the Jets-Texans game at home in Los Angeles on Sunday, but he said it was worth watching, so I took in the Short Cut. The Jets defensive front did a job on the Texans O-line, and I asked Chris if it was primarily schematic, or primarily a man beating a man. He said it was some of both, and I agree wholeheartedly, after watching the game. Rex Ryan is definitely still at it, sometimes lining up a three-man line as a 1-technique, 3-technique, and 5-technique, all to one side of the Center, having nothing but LBs on the other side. Nice evaluation, Chris, if you get around to reading this.

Vernon Gholston actually showed some flashes of being able to play, which was surprising, and the Jets clearly have a plan to overload blitz from a lot of fronts. Darrelle Revis did a great job on Andre Johnson, too, really taking Houston's best player out of the game.

m. The second-best defensive rookie I saw this weekend (behind Alphonso Smith) was Brian Cushing of the Texans. He was constantly around the ball, and looked like a better, more downhill-playing Chad Greenway.

n. I continue to be very impressed with Mark Sanchez. He looked poised and talented, which I expected. What I didn't necessarily expect was how well he would bounce back from throwing a TD pass to the other team (for Houston's only points of the game.)

o. So, you remember that thing about your objectives when getting the ball inside 2 minutes of the first half? Here's an example of the wrong way to do it. Tampa Bay started with 2 minutes to play, at their own 14-yard line. They led the game 7-6 at that point.

TB 1-10 own 14 yard line 2:00 WR screen to Michael Clayton, loss of 1 yard

TB 2-11 own 13 yard line 1:21 Byron Leftwich runs out of bounds for a gain of 1 yard, rather than staying in the field of play and gaining a couple additional yards.

TB 3-10 own 14 yard line 1:14 Handoff to Clifton Smith for 4 yards, burning 6 seconds

Dallas Timeout

TB 4-6 own 18 yard line 1:08 Punt out of bounds, Dallas ball, own 44 yard line

DAL 1-10 own 44 yard line 1:01 Tony Romo passes to Jason Witten, 9 yard gain, out-of-bounds at TB 47

DAL 2-1 TB 47 Offsides by (disappointing) Gaines Adams, 5 yard penalty, first down Dallas

DAL 1-10 TB 42 :55 Romo passes to Miles Austin for a 42 yard TD

This is the exact scenario which I described above, that you're trying to avoid.

After Tampa hit on a long pass to Michael Clayton, and Mike Nugent missed his second field goal, Dallas led 13-7 at the half, and went in with all the momentum. In a compressed-time situation, (especially when you lead 7-6), the status quo is okay. Write that down, the status quo is okay. THE STATUS QUO IS OKAY. The dumb play was Leftwich running out of bounds, and it cost the Bucs bigtime.

p. You know who might be the comeback player of the year this year, if he can stay healthy, is Cadillac Williams. He ran with suddenness and violence on Saturday, and looked better than he has since his rookie season.

q. The Patriots offensive line probably makes them not a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Of course, I thought the same thing of the Steelers last year, so take that for what it's worth. It is very, very difficult to be a championship team with a bad offensive line, though, and both of those teams have bad offensive lines.

r. I still think Tennessee is the best all-around team in the AFC. They're really strong on both lines, and their rookie WR, Kenny Britt, is going to open up their running game even further as the season progresses. I picked them at the last minute against Pittsburgh, and though the Steelers won, I feel like I had the game right. The Steelers couldn't block Tennessee, and Tennessee mostly could block Pittsburgh.

s. A rookie CB who was impressive was Derek Cox from the Jaguars. He had a fantastic interception of Peyton Manning in the end zone, on a fade route, and recovered a fumble too. He was hurt by getting beat deep twice by Reggie Wayne, but all in all, I think he's a find at CB, as a 3rd-rounder from William & Mary.

t. The Patriots definitely deserved to lose on Monday night, and there are serious issues with their team. Their offensive line is bad, they lack much talent at RB, and their defense can be thrown on, if they don't get pressure on the QB. They're brilliantly coached, but talent-deficient in some key places. They don't need to apologize for winning, but they do need to remember that they got dominated all game.

u. How about the effort and discipline showed by the Raiders? They came to play football Monday night, and the Chargers mostly looked like they want to sleepwalk through the early part of the season again.

v. Speaking of the Raiders, they must be really happy with the acquisitions of Greg Ellis and Richard Seymour. Those two players really improved their defense, and both got sacks Monday night.

w. Marcus McNeill looked awful against Seymour, and don't underestimate the importance of a long-term Nick Hardwick injury (an assumption, since he left by cart). The Chargers have no quality offensive line depth, not even anybody as good as Russ Hochstein or Seth Olsen.

x. Great coverage by the Raiders, especially Tyvon Branch and Chris Johnson. Branch, especially, did a nice job on Antonio Gates for most of the game. Nnamdi Asomugha was his normal self, even if Vincent Jackson did get a TD on him in the 4th quarter.

y. The Chargers defense is not very good, and the Raiders' suddenly seems like it is. I am positive that the Broncos' defense is better than San Diego's, as I have been saying for a couple weeks now. Shawne Merriman is staying blocked, and they're less talented at DE and ILB than they've been in recent years.

z. You may recall that Louis Murphy was one of my Draft favorites. And, incidentally, he caught a great throw by JaMarcus Russell too, after he struggled for a lot of the game. He is coming along as a player, as I said a couple weeks ago. Russell did struggle with accuracy a lot of the night, but I can see a lot of improvement in his process and decisiveness over this time last year.

aa. Hopefully, Darren Sproles is still having trouble fielding kicks in about 5 weeks. He flubbed three of them Monday night.

4. Between The Lines, Week 1: (Big up bchiper for suggesting the name about a month ago, when I solicited input from the community.)

a. Denver at Cincinnati

Denver Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense:

i. The Broncos offensive tackles were both outstanding, in both pass protection and the running game. Ryan Harris technically gave up a sack, although after 5 seconds and a trip on a shoestring tackle as Ryan rode the player deep and outside; it was totally on Kyle Orton. Antwan Odom got that sack, and another on Russ Hochstein later, and Robert Geathers was a total non-factor in the passing game, mostly against Ryan Clady.

ii. The interior of the Broncos offensive line was much more of a mixed bag. Ben Hamilton was called for holding and a false start, on the key 4th-quarter drive where the Broncos didn't score. He mostly carried out his assignments beyond that, but those lapses are very troubling. Hochstein gave up two sacks, and didn't look good. He really made me miss Chris Kuper. Casey Wiegmann had maybe his worst game as a Bronco, and got pushed backward a few times in the running game. The holding call on the successful Correll Buckhalter screen pass in the 4th quarter was really not much of a hold, but you can't be taking that penalty in that spot.

iii. The interior line for Cincinnati did a much better job than I thought they would, and mostly maintained their gaps in the running game. Hochstein and Wiegmann struggled some with Pat Sims and Domata Peko. I was impressed with their play for the Bengals, and they played a key part in the Broncos running game never really getting going.

iv. Among 20 running plays, I counted 11 zone-blocked plays and 9 man-blocked plays. Buckhalter had good success both ways, and LaMont Jordan had a nice run on a zone play. Peyton Hillis had his only carry behind man-blocking, which I think suits him best, and Knowshon Moreno ran both ways, having more success in man-blocking, which didn't have him running sideways, which was largely his downfall in his underwhelming debut.

v. I would call this battle pretty much a draw, which means the Broncos underachieved. Both sides had some success at times, in a battle that most would have expected the Broncos to win going away. The Broncos have some work to do on the offensive line. Statistically, the Broncos rushed 20 times for 75 yards, 3.8 yard per carry average. Orton was sacked 3 times, and hit 5 more, but really never faced significant pressure from a 4-man rush. Cincinnati really only got there by blitzing.

Cincinnati Offense vs. Denver Defense:

i. The good for Cincinnati: Andrew Whitworth did a pretty nice job at Left Tackle. He showed the ability to be fine there this season. The bad: Anthony Collins had a pretty rough time on the Right side, and looked like a guy who needs to be a backup. Collins never handled Elvis Dumervil well when he rushed from that side, and he got pushed backward a lot in the running game.

ii. As a general statement, the Broncos defensive line did an outstanding job of maintaining the line of scrimmage, and often resetting it a yard behind the blue line on the screen. It was a very encouraging sign against a big offensive line. I was very pleased with the interior performance of both Ronald Fields and Marcus Thomas. They didn't get their names called much, but both played with excellent leverage and physicality.

iii. I felt like the Denver DE/OLBs could have done a much better job in setting the edge in the running game. That is their number-one job, and several times, the interior successfully strung running plays out to the sideline, only to see Cedric Benson get some room out there. They're going to have to get better there.

iv. Of the Broncos' 3 sacks, all came from players who are classified as linebackers. Andra Davis and Mario Haggan both just barely beat Dumervil to the QB. Darrell Reid rushed with his hand down from a DE position on 3rd down, right after Haggan's sack, and beat Collins like he stole something on the play. Those two sacks were really important, incidentally, because both came right after Brett Kern shanked a punt and gave Cincinnati outstanding field position.

v. The Broncos won this battle, no question about it. They wore down a little at the end, but the defensive line was terrific in this game. They allowed 86 yards rushing on 27 carries, with 1 TD. That's a 3.2 yard average, which is very good, especially against a really talented guy like Benson. The pass rush was okay, but can get better. They hit Carson Palmer 4 times, in addition to the 3 sacks, and hurried him several other times.

b. Jacksonville at Indianapolis

Jacksonville Offense vs. Indianapolis Defense:

i. The key matchup featured Dwight Freeney against Eugene Monroe, who was making his NFL debut. Freeney dominated Monroe early in the game, notching a sack, and barely missing another, when David Garrard pulled out of his tackle. Monroe did better as the game went on, and the Jaguars took advantage of Freeney's constant proclivity to rush upfield by running several successful draws to his vacated spot. Monroe did have the key block on Jacksonville's only TD play, impressively hitting Antoine Bethea in space, a la Ryan Clady. On the negative side, Freeney had a neutral-zone infraction in the game, giving Jacksonville a first down.

ii. The Jaguars' other rookie Tackle, second-rounder Eben Britton, also was a mixed bag, mostly against Robert Mathis. He stoned Mathis a few times, got pantsed by him a couple more, but mostly they played close to even. Mathis did have a few impressive plays in the running game as the backside DE, crashing down the line.

iii. I was impressed by the job done by the inside guys for the Jags, including Maurice Williams, Brad Meester, and Vince Manuwai. They opened a lot of holes for Maurice Jones-Drew and anchored very well in the passing game. I only saw one very impressive defensive play by a Colts interior player, and that was a pursuit play by Ed Johnson. I was more impressed with his effort in hustling for 25 yards than anything, really.

iv. The Colts D-line looked the same as ever, with speed from the edges, not much anchoring power, and averageness inside. The Jaguars are much better up front than last season, and I would venture to speculate that they'll be a good offensive line 8-10 weeks from now, when Monroe and Britton have a bit more experience.

v. Statistically, the Jaguars rushed 26 times for 114 yards and 1 TD, a 4.4 yard average. David Garrard was sacked once and hit 6 more times. The numbers tend to support my conclusion that Jacksonville had a slight overall edge in this area.

Indianapolis Offense vs. Jacksonville Defense:

i. Indianapolis' Left Tackle, Charlie Johnson struggled somewhat, mostly against Derrick Harvey. Harvey didn't do a lot in the pass-rushing game, but he made his presence felt in stopping the run. Some were surprised that Johnson ended up as the starter, with Tony Ugoh on the bench, but I was a charter member of the Ugoh-Is-Soft-And-Lousy club a year ago, when the BMIA's of the world were still loving on him. Harvey is improved from his rookie year, but is still a better run player than pass rusher, and probably always will be. He's just not a fast-twitch guy, and smartly tries to play with power rather than quickness.

ii. I've never been the biggest Jeff Saturday fan, and Sunday's game was a good example of the reasons why. He really, really struggles when you ask him to anchor against a power player in pass protection or move a defensive lineman vertically in the running game. This has always been the case to some degree, but he's declined somewhat since his best years, from the looks of things. Saturday's strength is getting out to the second level and hitting pursuers. His quickness is an asset there, and his lack of power is minimized as a liability. He did look good several times in that tasking. I don't think he's a good Center anymore, overall, though - he's more like an average one.

iii. John Henderson had kind of an underwhelming game for the Jags from a playmaking perspective, but he generally was stout inside in the running game. He spent a good amount of time pushing Mike Pollak and Saturday backwards in the running game. Really, the Colts' whole O-line spent a lot of their day a step into their own backfield.

iv. Jacksonville's pass rush was marginal, and they got only one sack, from Reggie Hayward, who subsequently broke his shin and went down for the season. Ryan Lilja got beat for the sack, but the blocking scheme put him in a tough spot, coming from the inside to block an outside rusher.

v. The numbers tell two stories. The Jags were stout against the run, allowing 71 yards on 31 carries, a 2.3 yard average, with 1 TD. Peyton Manning had his way in the passing game though, taking one sack, and only getting hit two additional times. Give the slight edge to the Colts for volume, and if you're the Jaguars, you know you've now gone two offseasons needing pass rush help, and not satisfied the need.

5. The following is the schedule for the regular season for the Between The Lines feature.

Week
1	Jacksonville at Indianapolis
1	Denver at Cincinnati
2	Houston at Tennessee
2	Cleveland at Denver
3	Green Bay at St. Louis
3	Denver at Oakland
4	New York Jets at New Orleans
4	Dallas at Denver
5	Atlanta at San Francisco
5	New England at Denver
6	Baltimore at Minnesota
6	Denver at San Diego
7	Arizona at New York Giants
8	Denver at Baltimore
8	Cleveland at Chicago
9	Green Bay at Tampa Bay
9	Pittsburgh at Denver
10	Chicago at San Francisco
10	Denver at Washington
11	Miami at Carolina
11	San Diego at Denver
12	New York Giants at Denver
12	Pittsburgh at Baltimore
13	Houston at Jacksonville
13	Denver at Kansas City
14	Green Bay at Chicago
14	Denver at Indianapolis
14	Philadelphia at New York Giants
15	New England at Buffalo
15	Oakland at Denver
16	Seattle at Green Bay
16	Denver at Philadelphia
17	Chicago at Detroit
17	Kansas City at Denver

All 32 teams will be evaluated at least once. I'll evaluate the Broncos 17 times, obviously, and the next most frequent subjects will be Chicago and Green Bay with 4 appearances, Baltimore and the Giants with 3, and Cleveland, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Kansas City, New England, Oakland, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, San Diego and San Francisco twice each. All other teams will appear once.

6. My apologies for the lack of Lighting Up The Scoreboard Friday. I was having software problems on the recording from the Madden end, and I don't even know if it will work this week, when i try again. I will at least shoot to have an audio podcast this week, even if I can't get the Madden content in there.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. Man-cavery:

I have been fighting the urge to spend $1,000 on another living-room TV, and I have managed to keep that beast at bay, for now at least. I brought the TV on the right (a 32" job), in from my bedroom for gameday, and I think I will continue to do so for awhile. I had the Red Zone channel on the bigger laptop, the main game I wanted to see on the bigger TV, and another interesting game on the smaller, moved-in TV. I was keeping notes on the smaller laptop, on the couch. My only problem was changing channels, because the remote wanted to change the channels on both DirecTV receivers, when I only wanted one to move. Does anybody know any solutions to that?

That's all I have after taking up a lot of your time. Have a great week, and let's hope I can get my software issues worked out this week. It's Browns week, which means a lot of grief for me from the locals here in Cleveland, but it's the kind of grief I am happy to absorb if the Broncos win. In any case, we'll be back next Tuesday with more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations.

Are the Jaguars a Young Team?

Tkopa — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 10:59:27 -0000

More photos » by Michael Perez - AP

Jaguars 2008 number 8 overall selection Derrick Harvey represents the youth of the Jaguars. Players such as himself must succeed for the team to follow suit.

Browse more photos »

"We’ve taken a very aggressive approach at it; the amount of turnover is unusually large and you can’t continue to do that and have much success. Part of that was moving on, purging guys that just didn’t fit," Del Rio said. "We do have a young team."

I read that and nodded, yes they are a young team. But, then I thought about it. "Hey wait a minute, what does that actually mean?" I thought. A young college team is freshmen and sophomores that probably won't contend for the National Title, I get that. Is a young pro team a lot of rookies? Is it a lot of first and second year guys? What exactly is Jack telling us? I really don't know so I'll leave that question for the comments. Let's look at who the Jaguars kept, and what youth there is on the squad.

Offensive Line: The preseason starting lineup has been Tra Thomas (12th year), Vince Manuwai (7th year), Brad Meester (10th year), Mo Williams (9th year), Uche Nwaneri (3rd year), Tony Pashos (7th year) and Dennis Norman (9th year). I know they want to work Eben Britton and Eugene Monroe in but they should have to earn a spot over a lower performing veteran. I don't see a young team here; in fact this is a group of veterans that should be dependable.

Offensive Backfield: David Garrard is the QB (8th year), Gregg Jones at FB (6th year), Maurice Jones Drew RB (4th year). If you include Tight Ends, we have Marcedes Lewis (4th year), Ernest Wilford (6th year), Greg Estandia (3rd year). Again, a strong group of veterans that should be ready on game day, in fact climbing into their most productive years.

Receivers: Torry Holt is the number one receiver (11th year), Troy Williamson is number two (5th year), number three receiver will probably be a rookie.

Offensive Summary: One guy on the starting offensive team will be a rookie. If they decide to go with Monroe and Britton, they will have dependable veterans right behind them. To be honest, unless there is a problem with the players on this team, this amount of experience on offense should be able to deliver a competitive performance.

Let's look at the defense.

Defensive line: John Henderson (8th year), Reggie Hayward (9th year), Derrick Harvey (2nd year), Quentin Groves (2nd year), Terrance Knighton (1st year), Derek Landri (3rd year), Rob Meier (10th year). Basically I see a nice mix of veterans and youth in here with most of the youth represented by second year guys, Groves and Harvey. I can give a slight nod to youth here, but not inexperience. This line is not as seasoned as the offensive line but is a nice combination of fresh legs and wisdom.

Linebackers: Daryl Smith (6th year), Justin Durant (3rd year), and Clint Ingram (4th year). Brian Iwuh (4th year), Adam Seward (5th year) all represent the core of the lineup. There is nothing but experience in this group and should represent an easy bunch to coach to be productive.

Defensive Backfield: The starters look to be Rashean Mathis (7th year), Brian Williams (8th year), Reggie Nelson (3rd year), Gerald Alexander (3rd year), Sean Considine (5th year) Tyron Brackenridge (3rd year), Scott Starks (5th year), Brian Witherspoon (3rd year) and Derek Cox (rookie). I know they would like to integrate Derek Cox into the lineup but the basic starting lineup will have 3 years or more experience.

Defensive Summary: Harvey, Groves and Knighton represent the true youth in the defense and the line is on the younger side. Other than that, the backfield has a strong mix of experience and should know what is expected. Maybe a slight nod to lack of playing experience?

My Take: When I looked at it, I was surprised at how much experience the Jaguars have. They don't resemble a young college team. If we can't post 8 wins with this group, Gene has more work to do. A lot more.

So help me understand, what do you think Jack is trying to say?

- Terry O'Brien

Jaguars vs Dolphins: Winners and Losers

silencecs — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 00:06:57 -0000

More photos » by Marta Lavandier - AP

Tony Pashos leads a group of players who continue to underperform. Pashos was penalized, and allowed 2 sacks, as the Jaguars offensive line was a major culprit in the teams awful play.

Browse more photos »

The Jaguars were handily beaten by the Miami Dolphins on Monday night, and the game raised more questions than it answered. I'll examine the players who performed well, and those who faltered in Monday's season opener.

Losers:

Tony Pashos: The veteran gave up two clear sacks and was penalized on at least one occasion during the game. He is abover average in the run game, but was beaten badly time and time again. I'm not sure he would make a great guard either, and I think his salary is too much for an average guard. Maybe he'll prove me wrong, but he sure isn't showing any improvement as a RT, especially in the passing game. Something needs to be done about the RT position, Tony is not an adequate pass blocker. Period.

Uche Nwaneri/ Brad Meester/ Mo Williams: The starting interior trio wasn't able to allow Garrard enough time to pass, and couldn't open up lanes for MJD or Greg Jones. There is less concern here, because once Vinny comes back to RG, Uche will be able to head back to the bench. Uche is a great back-up, but there is a significant drop-off between Vince Manuwai and Uche, however, Manuwai is a premier guard, so that is to be expected.

Greg Estandia: Greg didn't do a lot to help his case in a crowed TE position. He was called for a penalty, and got very little separation even against the 3rd and 4th stringers of the Miami defense.

Greg Jones: The vet didn't show much in the running or passing game. He dropped passes, and looked nothing like the Greg of old. The line wasn't much help, but he looked very pedestrian in his first outing of the season, as did much of the team.

Brian Williams: The crafty veteran looked bad. He was flagged for penalty after penalty, and was beaten badly on more than one occasion. There is no question the acquisition of Derek Cox is looking like a much better gamble after Monday's game. Hopefully Derek will beat out Brian at some point in the season, and Williams can move to the nickel spot, where he would be much better suited (He'd be closer to the line of scrimmage to help in run defense). His salary is too high to play a nickel corner, so this may be the last season we have B-Dub around. He must improve over Monday's game, though.

Special Teams: Russ' unit looked atrocious. The kickoff coverage now uses the bunch formation (which is where everyone bunches behind the kicker and breaks apart as the ball is about to be kicked). This is amateur hour stuff, folks. It is a tactic that is used to try to confuse the return team's blockers, however, it seemed to have the opposite effect. Scobee made all his FG's, but the punting was inconsistent. The kickoff coverage was the main culprit here, and with the new wedge-ban in effect, it should make it easier on kickoff units to stop returns from going the distance.

Winners:

Nate Hughes: The second-year burner at WR continued to make his case for a roster spot, and it is a strong one. Nate has had a great camp, and that carried over into the preseason opener. He showed good speed and route running, and caught the ball with his hands, literally snatching it out of the air on one occasion. At a weak position, he may be a valuable find.

Eugene Monroe: "The Future" was dominant on Monday, shutting down the defensive ends the entire time he was in the game. He looked solid against the run, but most importantly, he looked like he belonged on an NFL field. The best case scenario involves Eugene starting the season at LT and Tra starting it at RT... Eugene needs to be starting, and if he continues to perform like he did on Monday, the coaching staff is going to have hard time keeping him off the field.

Tra Thomas: The newly acquired Tra Thomas looked sharp on Monday, and shows that Gene Smith knows how to scout offensive linemen. Tra needs to be on the field, and his run-blocking looked consistently strong. He's got remarkably good feet for someone his age, and he needs to be playing at RT over Pashos.

Russell Allen: Wow... Talk about answering the call of duty. Russell was called in to play MLB for Justin Durant when he was sidelined with a hip problem. Allen responded with 4 tackles and one pass defended. He did a good job of getting the defense into position and calling the plays. We may be looking at one of our future LB's here...

Montavius Stanley/Atylliah Ellison: Both made their case for solving the DT problem by stopping the run. Ellison seems to be the better of the two on the line, however, the importance of Stanley's blocked extra point can't be overstated. Special teams can get you on the field.

[Edititorial Note: Thanks to Rufio for reminding me of Thomas Williams]

Thomas Williams: Last year's fifth-round pick looked great. He was making absolutely vicious tackles and continued to show why our LB corp is the team's strongest unit. Williams turned out an all around fantastic performance.

On The Fence:

Troy Williamson: When people are raving over a guy who fumbled the ball, and got lucky on one of his catches, you know things are bad at the WR position. Troy looked OK to me. I didn't like seeing that fumble, because it was before the rain even started, so there is no excuse. He needs to step it up consistently before I start congratulating the guy on an above average performance.

Tyron Brackenridge: The CB had one pass defense, and one tackle. Most importantly though, he didn't look overwhelmed. He seems to be a player the Jaguars are hot on, and I didn't see him make any major gaffes, so I would say he's one to watch.

Zach Miller: This QB turned TE can flat out move. The kid was flying around on offense, and special teams, making a shoestring tackle at the 2 yd like on punt coverage. His only problem may be adjusting to having to catch the ball, especially when David really puts the mustard on it. He had one drop against the dolphins that should've been caught. He's not natural looking at the position yet, and his blocking leaves something to be desired, but he's got major upside, and he showed it Monday.

-Collin Streetman

Poll

Biggest Concern Going Into 2009

Offensive Line

179 votes

Defensive Line

68 votes

Secondary

101 votes

Coaching

54 votes

402 votes | Poll has closed

2008 Season Retrospective: Did injuries "Neg Out" the Jaguars?

River City Rage — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 16:22:22 -0000

What explains the late season meltdown of the Jacksonville Jaguars?

With training camp so close you can almost smell the sweat on the blocking sleds, It's time for a (hopefully) final look back at the 2008 season, and what it means for the 2009 team. Two articles popped on my radar recently, each offering a "scientific" examination of the Jacksonville Jaguars, but with differing conclusions. K.C. Joyner, writing for the New York Times, looks at the injuries to the Jaguars offensive line and how it offers little excuse for the late season meltdown that sent the team on a rocketship toward rebuilding. On the other side, Football Outsiders, the statistics guru's of the NFL, determined that no team missed more time for injuries than the Jaguars, and that they should be ripe for a comeback in 2009.

Going back to Joyner's article, he uses a system that tracks how many time an offensive lineman was the key player in a run play, and the success rate of said lineman to come up with a percentage.

LT - Khalif Barnes - 88 POA runs, 66 POA wins, 75.0% POA win rate

LG - Uche Nwaneri - 134 POA runs, 111 POA wins, 82.8% POA win rate

C - Brad Meester - 72 POA runs, 62 POA wins, 86.1% POA win rate

RG - Dennis Norman - 147 POA runs, 125 POA wins, 85.0% POA win rate

RT - Tony Pashos - 143 POA runs, 123 POA wins, 86.0% POA win rate

Per his metrics, having three blockers with a POA win rate of over 85% is good, especially considering the injuries on the line. He correctly calls out Barnes as the "weakest link", though he distinguishes that his performance was not injury related. I would argue that having the players on the inside replaced would probably have a detrimental effect on his numbers, but that's for another post.

What I find problematic about these numbers is that they simply do not match the product that we saw on the field. Sure, these measurements show that the Jaguars offensive line was effective, but when statistics are vastly different than the "gut impression", it draws into question the very validity of the numbers. Statistics driven analysis is fantastic and something that the NFL has lacked, but there are some elements that require some work. One is in tracking the offensive line. Without game film like the coaches see, it's very difficult to follow the offensive line play. The camera follows the ball and the quarterback, and often hides the nuances of offensive line play. The end zone camera position gives us the best view of holes and cut back lanes, but the general broadcast camera position is horrible at showing who did what in a particular play. Until the NFL decides that fans and the media can have regular access to the end zone camera, it's going to be hard to create an accurate measurement.

But I'm seriously digressing from my point. David Garrard went from one of the least sacked and least mistake prone quarterbacks in 2007, to one of the most sacked in 2008. The Jaguars running game went from being an iconic factor in games to an afterthought, as David was forced into 3rd and long over and over and over again. We watched the games, we saw the line play, we saw the holes close, we saw Fred and Jones-Drew struggle, and yet we are supposed to believe that the statistics say that the offensive line was good, and that the Jaguars had a case of the funk and fell off the grid?

That's exactly what Joyner argues:

A. Management and/or the coaches were feeding this line of thinking to the announcers to take the heat off a team that had badly underachieved, and
B. This mind-set eventually made its way through to the team itself

Thought A came to mind because Jack Del Rio strikes me as a media-savvy coach who is good at helping to steer story lines in a direction of his choosing. The sense my scouting eye got is that the announcers bought into the injury story, but, unfortunately for Del Rio, so did his players. They kept hearing the press say that their injuries were the reason for the downfall and they might have ended up believing it. Deep down, I think the team knew that injuries weren’t killing the offense, but when the players heard the excuse being used elsewhere, they were free to jump on that bandwagon.

What he argues, in my opinion, is absurd. If, and that's a strong word, but if it's true that the team attempted to score a PR "win" by blaming the season on the injuries and that Del Rio let that mindset change the team from a "next man up" to a "quit and lay down", than Del Rio should have joined James Harris and left the team. But I don't buy it. Did the Jaguars have a boat-load of problems in the locker room? Absolutely. Was it because the team bought into it's own negitive hype? I just don't think so.

Statistics, as we know, can tell the same story with different conclusions: Take Football Outsiders, for example:

Jacksonville had a 1.9% DVOA, and their expected win total was 8.9 -- shocking, perhaps, but a function of their underlying performance. A 1.9% DVOA is pretty good: 26 other teams since 1994 (the earliest year we've calculated DVOA for) have had a DVOA between 1% and 3%. Of those 26 teams, exactly one won as few as five games: The 2003 Jaguars, who promptly won nine games the next season. The average team in that range won 8.5 games.

Furthermore, the Jaguars had a lot of injuries last year. By our injury metric, Adjusted Games Lost (which takes into account historical injury rates for a given role/position on the injury report and the player's role as a starter or reserve on the team), the Jaguars were the tenth-most injured team in the league last year. Injuries tend to regress to league average, which is another positive indicator for the Jaguars; a team's AGL has a .26 correlation with the change in wins in subsequent seasons.

So, which is it? Injuries or being psyched out?

I'd like to see what ya'll think of this. Why do you think the Jaguars fell apart last season?

Breaking down Buffalo's likely free agency strategy

Brian Galliford — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 16:30:07 -0000

Might Bills pursue Houshmandzadeh? (US Presswire)

With the 2009 NFL Scouting Combine wrapping up today in Indianapolis, all eyes will be on the free agency spending spree that's about to commence. Black Friday isn't just the day after Thanksgiving, folks - there's another high-stakes shopping day to pay attention to, and it's coming up quickly.

The Buffalo Bills are in a tight spot. With a coaching staff sitting upon blazing thrones that make the term "hot seat" seem downright chilly, the Bills are in a win-now mode and are expected to be aggressive in finding players that can make an impact immediately. However, considering the current state of the economy, there is also a prevailing theory that the Bills will consider scaling back spending on veterans. It's a Catch 22, but for the staff and 90-year-old owner Ralph Wilson, winning is expected to trump penny-pinching.

Unfortunately for Buffalo, this year's free agent class is devoid of many difference makers. Considering the amount of statistical impact and leadership necessary for the Bills to make a serious playoff push in 2009, there's really only one logical way to go about attacking free agency. In terms of a plan for midnight Friday morning, here's how I think Buffalo's strategy could play out...

Step One: Make a run at offensive weapons
Outside of Tennessee DT Albert Haynesworth and Ravens LB Ray Lewis (both unlikely to be pursued by Buffalo), there aren't any defensive playmakers worth pursuing heavily out of the gate. There are good players, but none that will command the immediate attention of a Haynesworth or a Lewis. Offensively, however, there is one big name that the Bills very well could sniff around, and that's Bengals free agent WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Though he'll be 32 in September, Houshmandzadeh is currently on a three-season streak of at least 90 receptions and has 25 touchdowns in that time frame. By far the best receiver on the market, Houshmandzadeh is expected to garner interest from serious contenders like the Giants and Titans, but that won't stop the Bills from kicking the proverbial tires.

Beyond Houshmandzadeh, the pickings are slim. One productive name that has already been linked to the Bills is tight end Owen Daniels, a restricted free agent in Houston. In just three seasons, Daniels has quickly established himself as a bona fide receiving threat and is coming off of his first Pro Bowl invitation. Depending on the type of compensation necessary to acquire him, the Bills will seriously pursue adding Daniels to the roster. Buffalo is also expected to be players if Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin becomes available via trade. Regardless of the likelihood of these acquisitions, pursuing these names is smart - if the chips fall the right way, these players will be more beneficial to Buffalo's potential next season than any other player.

Step Two: Fortify two of four critical needs
When this community put together the team's extensive needs list, four positions received a grade of 'critical' - tight end, center, defensive end and linebacker.

At tight end, obviously the addition of Daniels would kill two birds with one stone. Beyond him, there are only project players (like Arizona's Leonard Pope, as an example) or lumbering vets available on the market. If the Bills miss on Daniels and aren't thrilled with the idea of a veteran project, this need will undoubtedly be addressed in the draft. Luckily for Buffalo, the draft is loaded with quality tight ends this year.

At center, there are several quality veterans that would instantly solidify a solid (on paper) offensive front in Buffalo. Baltimore's Jason Brown is the cream of the crop, and he's closely followed by veterans like Minnesota's Matt Birk (who may re-sign with the Vikings before Friday), Indianapolis' Jeff Saturday and Jacksonville's Brad Meester. Another option would be signing an unheralded reserve, such as Carolina's Geoff Hangartner, to start at center. However, considering the depth of this year's center class in the draft, it's not absolutely imperative that a center be added.

At defensive end, there's little impact to be found in the veteran pool. Kalimba Edwards has played under Dick Jauron before, but isn't exactly a spring chicken at age 29. Bertrand Berry is even older, though he's still considered a solid edge rusher. Defensive coordinator Perry Fewell has already made plain his desire for a speed rusher; if the decision-makers listen, that player will likely be a draft pick.

At linebacker, Buffalo is expected to pursue a veteran to start on the strong side - and it's not expected to be Angelo Crowell. Players such as Channing Crowder, Michael Boley and Morlon Greenwood are most often mentioned, but Indianapolis' Tyjuan Hagler should garner consideration as well. However, bringing in a veteran isn't a done deal, as the team also left the door open on potentially moving middle linebacker Paul Posluszny outside and adding a middle linebacker as well.

Ultimately, the Bills have options at each position, but they should look to address at least two of these areas via free agency. Leaving any more than two unchecked for the draft is extremely risky, as it's unlikely the Bills will be able to fill three or more critical needs with impact players in the draft unless they can find a way to trade down.

Step Three: Find a backup quarterback
Five-year veteran J.P. Losman's Bills career is finally (and mercifully) at an end. With starting quarterback Trent Edwards still developing and still frail, the Bills will look to add a veteran backup. Rex Grossman is likely on his way out of Chicago and has ties to Jauron, but he himself is an injury risk as well. Kyle Boller is believed to be a strong candidate. Other veterans like Jon Kitna (who is expected to be released by Detroit) are possibilities, and younger guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick and possibly Dan Orlovsky will be considered as well. There aren't many appealing options, but names like Boller, Grossman and Kitna have experience and can win games in a pinch. That's all we need out of this position.

Step Four: Add some spot contributors/depth players
These needs aren't critical, but the Bills should look to address them if they can.

Running back: Marshawn Lynch is facing a league suspension, and the Bills are in a tight spot and will likely address the running back position in some capacity. Fred Taylor is visiting the Bills today, but it's unclear how Taylor would fit into a rotation that includes Fred Jackson as well.

Wide Receiver: If the team misses on Houshmandzadeh, it's still highly likely that a receiver will be added simply because of James Hardy's knee injury. Luckily, there are several solid receiving depth options available this year, with Amani Toomer probably the most coveted. Possible releases such as Torry Holt will be intriguing as well, but this player is expected to be a veteran, not a rookie.

Offensive Line: Pending the re-signing of tackle Kirk Chambers, Buffalo's tackle depth is solid. The interior is another story. The team may wait until the draft to address this area, but a veteran like Adrian Jones might be appealing as well.

Defensive tackle: John McCargo can't be relied on as the fourth member of the rotation, so the Bills would be smart to look for an active player that competes well against the run. I've heard Mike Wright's name mentioned so many times it's ridiculous - the Patriot is an underrated name. This might be addressed via the draft as well.

***

Buffalo needs to be as flexible as possible with this plan, because having a rigid attack to free agency often leads to breakdowns and missing out on targets. There are a lot of players available, and there are a lot of under-the-radar talents that would really bolster Buffalo's depth. Ultimately, however, this strategy is the best way to go about adding true impact to the roster. Beyond that, Buffalo's main goal should be paring down its critical needs in such a fashion that they can enter draft preparations with only one or two major need areas. That will make their goal of drafting the best player available much more feasible.

Thirteen free agents Buffalo should pursue

Brian Galliford — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 13:02:13 -0000

C Brown will be hot free agent commodity (View Images)

Update, 1:15PM EDT: The Seahawks have just applied the franchise tag to LB Leroy Hill. I've added another Tier 2 free agent to keep the list at a baker's dozen. End Update

Over the past few days, we have begun an abbreviated version of what the Buffalo Bills (and the rest of the NFL, incidentally) have been concentrating on for several months - developing a strategy for free agency. We singled out which Bills free agents we're looking to re-sign. We identified nearly four dozen free agents to consider; that list is available here.

Naturally, next up on the list is identifying top-priority free agent targets that the Bills would be smart to pursue.

That's what we'll do now. Before we get to the names, however, I've got some explaining to do on the process involved with these decisions.

Dividing targets into tiers
The easiest way (for me, at least) to develop a free agent strategy is to divide up my targets list into four tiers of players. If you happen to notice on the targets list, each free agent listed has a tier number associated with him. Here's a brief explanation of what each term means in terms of the strategy we're developing.

Tier 1 targets: These guys are the cream of the crop (at least in terms of talents the Bills are likely to pursue). They're more than just hole-pluggers; they're guys that fill needs, but do it in a way that turns a weakness into a strength.

Tier 2 targets: I consider this group the "contingency plan" group. This group is bigger for a couple of reasons; the first being that they aren't quite as attractive, for a multitude of reasons, and the second being that these are players that Buffalo should target depending on what they get out of Tier 1.

Tier 3 targets: This is essentially a group of alternatives to the Tier 2 players. The purpose of this group is to have a contingency plan to the strategies we develop with the first two tiers. More on this momentariliy.

Tier 4 targets: Call these the "desperation" targets. We'd only go after these players if we strike out badly at a position of need.

Two tiers, thirteen players
I've got thirteen names here of free agents that all fall into the Tier 1 or Tier 2 category. From this list, we can begin to develop strategies for pursuing free agents.

Tier 1 Targets
Browns SS Sean Jones: I made my case for Jones being Buffalo's top priority yesterday. That's really all you need to know.

Ravens C Jason Brown: There are going to be a lot of teams after Brown, and Miami might be his most aggressive suitor. Brown has a ton of experience, is young, and has handled 3-4 nose tackles throughout his entire career. He'd be ideal in Buffalo.

Vikings C Matt Birk: Experienced, versatile pivot who will be equally pursued via free agency as Brown.

Tier 2 Targets
Panthers C Geoff Hangartner: The kind of under-the-radar free agent Buffalo likes. Has starting experience at both center and guard, and plays the game with a great attitude. A solid consolation prize should Brown and Birk sign elsewhere.

Falcons OLB Michael Boley: Would be an outstanding addition if and only if the Bills are planning on being more aggressive defensively this season. Won't excel in a read-and-react scheme.

Dolphins OLB Channing Crowder: Has great size, physicality and range. Not a playmaker, but a sure-fire starter in Buffalo at the strong side.

Giants WR Amani Toomer: Wily veteran simply knows how to get open. Can work the middle of the field, a trait that Trent Edwards would exploit frequently.

Jaguars C Brad Meester: Veteran pivot that has struggled with injuries the past couple of seasons, but is a sound technician.

Cardinals FB Terrelle Smith: Bruiser that loves contact. Durability is a concern, but he's exactly the type of fullback that power rushing teams love to have.

Eagles FS Sean Considine: Plays aggressively and has made some big plays in his time. Can play special teams as well.

Titans FS Vincent Fuller: A ballhawk of a safety that needs an opportunity to start to realize his full potential.

Patriots FB Heath Evans: Versatile, "do it all" fullback that comes with a winning pedigree.

Bears QB Rex Grossman: Has ties to Dick Jauron. The most technically sound backup-level quarterback on the market. Has proven that he can help a team win games, but needs to improve his decision-making. As good a backup as you can find.

The Strategy
Obviously, both of these tiers of targets contain players at need positions as well as players that would help Buffalo in some other capacity. The idea here is to take one (or two if you're feeling lucky) targets out of Tier 1, and supplement the plan with targets from Tiers 2 and 3 (and Tier 4 if your plan is a bad one).

My plan would involve signing Jones as our top priority. I'd then target Hangartner and Meester as starting center candidates (and yes, folks, I'd probably look to supplement either of those picks with a rookie backup as well). OLB can be addressed with either Crowder (I prefer him to Boley) or a Tier 3 linebacker such as Morlon Greenwood. I'd bring in Terrelle Smith as my fullback in a heartbeat, as his playing attitude personifies exactly what I want my offense to become. Players like Toomer and Considine, while good players, would only be targets if I can't fill needs with Tier 2 guys.

Of course, you can also target a center or Hill in Tier 1 and supplement with different Tier 2 targets. See where I'm going with this? Feel free to strategize with me this morning, folks. Who is your top target? How do you develop a strategy surrounding your top target? Let's get brainstorming, folks!

Could the Rams find their next center in free agency?

VanRam — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 12:44:40 -0000

One need the Rams have is for a big guy in the middle of their line, a center who can handle the tough matchups against big DTs crashing the pocket or clogging up running lanes. Romberg and Leckey, who get points for giving 110%, were too easily pushed aside. They just aren't the answer. This year's draft has a number of quality prospects at C projected to go on the first day, but with the Rams looking at OTs in the draft as well, loading up on the o-line early comes at a cost of missing players of need at other positions. Also, Steve Korte of the Belleville News-Democrat raised a point about development with new centers, that it can take some time for them to learn the game. So who are the free agents available at C?

Jason Brown, Baltimore, 26 - The best of the lot, and there's no way the Ravens don't franchise him or give him a new contract.

The group starts to get old from there.

Matt Birk, Minnesota, 33 - He would be a nice addition. He's older, but hasn't missed time since '05. Cost/benefit analysis leans against him given the added injury risk his age brings to a unit long-suffering from injuries, unless the Rams had a young guy on the roster who needed a year to develop.

Jeff Saturday, Indianapolis, 34 - He missed four games last year, and the Colts sorely missed him. This article says that the Colts have a history letting their over-30 free agents walk, making it seem likely that Saturday would hit the free agent market. Again, one of these old guys would be fine at the right price, so long as the Rams have a better backup. Say, Richie Incognito did pretty well at center in 2006; I wonder what the new regime thinks of moving him back there?

Brad Meester, Jacksonville, 32 - Meester meessed 11 games over the last two seasons, 'nuff said.

The list of free agent centers starts to get thin after that, and Richie Incognito would be as good of a solution as the others on the free agent list (one here and one here).

There's one more option, a backup who had the chance to shine in '08, now itching to get out there and prove his starting mettle. Carolina's Geoff Hangartner, 26, is a versatile OL, who's started at C and G in his time with the Panthers, including 11 games this season when they had the third best rushing offense in the league, per DVOA. With so many top guys set for free agency, i.e. Jordan Gross and Julius Peppers, it's likely the Panthers will be unable/unwilling to give Hangartner starting money, which he could get elsewhere. Getting a guy like this could be a real benefit to the Rams.