SB Nation - Rob Meier

Analysis of the 2009 Colts roster cuts: Part One

BigBlueShoe — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 14:42:14 -0000

by Michael Conroy - AP

Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Caldwell, right, and team president Bill Polian. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

We have the final roster cut-down list, written up by shake n bake.

Almost immediately, there was significant reaction. Granted, every year cuts happen and there is always those one or two cuts where people scream NOOOOOOOOOOO!!! only to get over it once the season starts. But, with players like Dante Hughes, Mike Hart, and (especially) Marcus Howard getting the boot, it should serve as a reminder that the Colts do indeed have a new coach. This new coach has new ideas; ideas that in some cases will differ from his predecessor. And as we have seen, the 2007 and 2008 drafts, which were very heavily influenced by what Tony Dungy likes in players, were not drafts that tickle the fancy of new Colts coach Jim Caldwell.
MasterRWayne discusses whether Bill Polian has lost his touch as a draft guru. Currently, only three players remain from the 2007 draft, and three significant players from the 2008 draft were recently let go.
John Oehser offers his roster analysis at Examiner.com.
18to88 chimes in.
My favorite reader comment on the roster cuts thus far comes from Cassieper:

Lance Ball: He wasn’t that good. We only considered keeping him because Hart was injured.

Guns: Always injured. Never was going to contribute.

John Gill: Who?

Mike Hart: Serious injury. The Colts can’t wait until midseason on him.

Brett McDermott: Once again, who?

Tom Pestock: Only played in garbage time, never showed anything.

Taj Smith: Talented, maybe one year away. Cut him to get him on the practice squad. Should have no trouble getting him through the waivers.

Mike T: Another guy who’s practice squad bound. Wasn’t quite good enough to deal with starting talent.

Terrance Taylor: A huge project. Cross your fingers and hope he makes it to the practice squad.

Jaimie Thomas: A huge disappointment so far. Hasn’t shown anything. Practice squad bound.

Josh Thomas: Only good against the run. Putting him at end would concede the pass. Dawson is as good as him against the run and better as a pass rusher.

Michael Toudouze: I like him, but he is nowhere near Ugoh and CJ in talent.

Key and Petrowski: Bad players and injured. Bad combination.

So there you go.

In just a 24-hour period, this site has over 1,000 comments from numerous readers about the cuts. I did my best to read as many varying opinions as possible. After reading the comments, the articles, and examining how other teams dealt with the roster cut-downs, I have finally posted my analysis after the jump.

First off, I understand that the immediate reaction to the cuts seems like a stinging indictment of Polian's job, particularly when you look at the 2007 and 2008 drafts. Now, important to note that in neither of those drafts did Polian "bust" his first round pick, like Jerry Angelo with the Chicago Bears has done pretty much since 2004 (Rex Grossman, Cedric Benson, Chris Williams, etc.) With 2007 and 2008, it is important to note that those drafts were made with Tony Dungy working with Polian. Dungy had a specific philosophy about players. He valued certain traits over others. Bill respected that philosophy and draft accordingly.

But Dungy's philosophy on players is not necessarily shared by Jim Caldwell.

Dungy valued speed over size. This is why Marcus Howard and Curtis Johnson were so valued by Tony D. Clearly, Bill Polian and Jim Caldwell do not value speed over size as much. The Colts asked Cujo to add 15 pounds of muscle this off-season (which he did), but his efforts were not enough to supplant Keyunta Dawson. Dawson made the transition back to DE (his college position) during the off-season, and performed very well in camp and pre-season. Last season, Dawson was the starting defensive tackle, weighing in at 260 pounds. Now, he is more comfortable, and better suited, as a DE.

Thus, the smaller, quicker players like Howard and Cujo are expendable.

And I know some of you are screaming "WHAT ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED IN 2007 WHEN FREENEY AND MATHIS GOT HURT!" Folks, if Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis get hurt again as they did in 2007, it is the equivalent of losing Peyton Manning and Jeff Saturday. A player like Marcus Howard is not going to replace Dwight Freeney; not in this new defensive system. Indeed, one of the reasons Freeney and (especially) Mathis got hurt in 2007 was because the Colts relied too much on them for the pass rush. In a Tampa-2, the front four (not the front two) need to apply QB pressure. And now with Larry Coyer dialing up blitzes from Philip Wheeler (an excellent blitzer in college), Melvin Bullitt, and eventually Bob Sanders, the scheme should (in theory) create more rush without solely relying on Freeney and Mathis.

Also, I think Caldwell is just tired of seeing teams run the football at Indy's front, and having DEs weighting 245 pounds is not going to help you stop the run.

For Mike Hart, it is possible that he could be signed to the practice squad, but I think that's remote. Hart's knock coming out of college was he was "beaten up" after all the hits he took rushing for all those yards in the Big Ten. Last year, he blew out his knee and this pre-season he injured both his ankles. This is a bottom line business, folks. If you cannot stay healthy, you're not going to keep your job long.

And for all the Doom and Gloom folks who think that the cuts signal the "downfall" of the Colts, please take a moment to check out KFFL.com, or browse through the numerous SB Nation football sites. You will see all the cuts and roster moves other teams had to wrestle with. Many of these moves involved players many of us wanted the Colts to draft or sign in 2007 and 2008:

Buccaneers safety Tanard Jackson was placed on the suspended list. We thought highly of him in 2007.
The Bengals cut safety Corey Lynch. We also thought highly of him in 2008.
The Patriots cut Kevin O'Connell, another player in the 2008 NFL Draft we liked.
Packers first round bust Justin Harrell was placed on IR. For all the screaming about getting a quality DT the last three years, it seems Harrell clearly was not the answer in 2007. I thought he was. Clearly, I was wrong. Green Bay had to suffer through a horrid 6-10 season to draft B.J. Raji, and none of us know if he will be any good. He also signed late.
Packers also cut Brian Brohm, the "insurance QB" in case Aaron Rodgers turned out to suck. Brohm had a prolific career at Louisville, and if he had come out after his junior season, he might have been a first round pick.
John David Booty was cut.
Kory Sheets was cut.
Mitch King was cut.
Dominic Rhodes was cut. Hell, Marshawn Lynch is suspended for three games, and Dom still got cut. The Bills are a complete mess, folks.
DeMario Pressley, a DT from 2008 some wanted the Colts to grab, was cut by the Saints. So was former Colts WR Courtney Roby.
Adam Carriker, who I wanted the Colts trade trade for last season, is now on IR.
Broncos cut Tim Crowder, their second round pick from 2007.
The Jaguars IRed their starting DT from last season, Rob Meier.

So, no offense, but to those who seem to second guess Bill Polian for the 2007 and 2008 drafts (like Paul Kuharsky at ESPN), kindly tell me who he was supposed to take. Many of the players we all wanted Polian to pick up then are now in the same boat as Mike Hart, Marcus Howard, and Dante Hughes. If you want to bash him for trading up to get Tony Ugoh in 2007 and, thus, preventing Indy from getting a player like Matt Forte in 2008, then fine. I think that's fair. But, from where I'm sitting, it looks like the 2007 and 2008 drafts just did not foster the kind of overall NFL talent we are used to seeing from the collegiate ranks.

It's also important to note that from the now dreaded 2007 draft, Polian managed to sign then-free agent rookie Melvin Bullitt. So, it's not like lunch meat came out of 2007. Clearly, taking Anthony Gonzalez worked out better than trading up to get someone like Justin Harrell.

All of us are so used to seeing Polian draft picks work out that, when they don't, we scratch our head and wonder if we haven't been transported into some netherworld, alternate reality. But if you look around the NFL right now, lots of "name" players from the 2007 and 2008 drafts are, indeed, now looking for work.

Part two of my roster evaluation will get posted later today while teams begin putting in waiver claims for many of the recently cut players.

Camp Battle 2009: Defensive Tackle

Jonathan Loesche — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 15:16:29 -0000

Will the real John Henderson please stand up

The defensive tackle spot has gone from being the epicenter of the team to perhaps its weakest link. John Henderson had not performed well the past two seasons, Rob Meier flopped when handed the starting job, and a lack of depth all contributed to problems in 2008. This off season has been an eventful one for the unit, most notably because of Henderson and Coach Del Rio's high profile war of words earlier in OTAs. In addition, the Jaguars drafted Terrance Knighton in the 3rd round. What will it take for the Jaguars defensive interior to once again become dominate?

John Henderson

I'm sure anyone reading this knows the details already, so I'll just move to the meat of the issue. Henderson has to show he still has some fire left in him this season. His name was linked to multiple trade rumors and if any of the younger DTs step up this season, he will be on his way out this season. Even performing at a level somewhere between 2006 and the last two years would make him one of the better DTs in the NFL.

Now, can that happen? I'm leaning towards no. Henderson is getting on the back end of his career and to expect him to revitalize himself to that level might be asking too much. Perhaps Henderson's biggest value left is as trade bait.

Rob Meier

While Marcus Stroud and John Henderson started during the Jaguars' defensive glory days, Rob Meier was there as the reliable back up. Fans and coaches said he could've started on any other team that ran a 4-3 scheme. Then he was handed a sizable contract extension and the starting job. Meier's 2008 campaign was bad, enough said.

Meier may need to once again simply become "The best backup" to be effective again. It was painfully obvious Meier couldn't handle a starting job. However, can the talent behind Meier rise up to replace him?

Derek Landri

Landri is at the stage of his career he needs to "Come off the shelf." Landri has shown flashes in his two years on the roster, and the Jaguars need him more than ever. Landri has shown he can get after the passer in a reserve role, however, is he the same kind of fool's Gold that Meier turned out to be?

Terrance Knighton

Knighton was taken in the 3rd round out of Temple. Many draftniks felt Knighton was a reach, though the Jaguars claimed he was "the last DT with starting potential available." Knighton brings a good deal of raw potential to the defensive line, with the key word being raw. Unless Knighton vastly improves technique during camp, I expect him to be a backup for this season.

State of The Position

I know there are other DTs on the roster, but at this point, these are the four players who will be seeing the most playing time. The Jaguars have two aging, and rapidly declining, players in Henderson and Meier. Landri and Knighton represent the future of the position, and must begin to make their moves this season. Landri has the highest expectations this year. He has to stop being a "jar on the shelf" and become either the "third starter" or even replace Meier if the Jaguars want to be successful in the interior.

Poll

Which defensive tackle needs to improve the most in 2009?

John Henderson

236 votes

Rob Meier

35 votes

Derek Landri

106 votes

377 votes | Poll has closed

Anthony Montgomery is the backup, but probably not for long

Skin Patrol — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 21:17:41 -0000

Starting tomorrow during the Redskins @ Giants game but continuing for most of the season I will carefully be watching for Anthony Montgomery in the lineup. I'll get to why in a moment.

Briefly before that, make sure you check out the team's final roster heading into the season available at the official site here. I didn't do a good job at all of analyzing the cuts or the final roster, which is far more interesting for who doesn't make the team than for who does (because the real "news" always happens on the margins; no one is shocked Jason Campbell made the team, for instance). And now that the deed is done I haven't anything to add that others haven't covered better already. See, for example, Curly R on the depth chart or Hog Heaven on the running backs, tight ends, wide receivers, etc.

I have been meaning to write on Anthony Montgomery before the season started, and time has run out for me to put it off any longer. And unfortunately I put it off too long for another reason: As of this writing, Kedric Golston is listed as starting in front of Anthony Montgomery. It's too late to question the wisdom of that decision, not that I have any wisdom to add nor any input on such. But it's never too late to examine Montgomery's impact on the Redskins defensive line of 2007 perhaps to shed light on just how valuable he will be to the team moving forward. Remember that there's no reason to think Kedric's hold on the starting DT position is stone-set. Although Kedric has been my pick for some time because I like him as the underachiever drafted after Montgomery, it went Golston-Montgomery-now Golston from '06-'07-'08. Sprinkled throughout was a heavy rotation betwixt them anyways, which should continue this year.

My trusty Pro Football Prospectus from the fellas at Football Outsiders had much to say on the subject of Montgomery's '07 performance. Click below to read more about that.

The revelation of the defensive line was defensive tackle Anthony Montgomery, a 2006 ffifth-round pick who took over from Joe Salave'a on the interior and emerged as a huge difference-maker in one-on-one situations.

Thus opens the analysis of the team's front seven in PFP. And the numbers totally bear that out, and then some, though they do require explanation. First, for those of you who don't know, Football Outsiders developed a methodology for examining the success or failure of NFL plays that tends to better explain situations than, say, mere yardage. As they tell it:

On first down, a play is considered a success if it gains 45 percent of needed yards; on second down, a play needs to gain 60 percent of needed yards; on third or fourth down, only gaining a new first down is considered success.

Which makes far more sense than saying, merely, the runner who averages 3.1 yards per carry is better than the one who averages 3.0 yards per carry. The latter might be a third down back who gets those 3 yards on 3rd or 4th and short situations (in which case he has real value playing against a stacked front seven) and the former might be a 1st and 2nd down back who is getting his 3 yards on down and long situations. Yards are important because they ultimately lead to success in the form of moved chains and points scored. A 4th and 1 touchdown plunge is more valuable than a 1st and 20 two yard plunge, ya?

Anyways, that kind of metric is intuitive enough not to require much more explanation. That relative milestones change depending on down and distance should hardly surprise anyone who watches the game, as you celebrate more feverishly a four yard gain that leads to a first down than a four yard gain that puts you just 15 yards short of the first down.

This success rate works for defensive players too. When a defensive player prevents an offensive player or an offense from reaching those milestones, it's a success on that side of the ball.

With that understanding, the numbers:

Anthony Montgomery was involved in 48 plays defined as "total defensive plays including tackles, pass deflections, interceptions, fumbles forced, and fumble recoveries" which they track from Official NFL Gamebooks.
Of those 48 plays (2nd among measured defensive linemen, which didn't include Kedric Golston), Montgomery recorded 43 "stops" which are plays where he prevents one of the success milestones mentioned above depending on down and distance.
That is a 90% stop rate which happened to be the third best in the league behind only Adam Carriker and Rob Meier.
With that 90% stop rate Montgomery was 2nd on the team in total average yards (average number of yards gained by the offense when this player is credited with making the play) with 1.5 AvYd allowed.
First place was Andre Carter, because he was such a beast against the pass (average yards on pass plays was -2.9, impressively).
Against the run Montgomery had no equal on the team; his run stop % was 92 and he gave up 1.6 yards on average, best on the team.

In sum, Montgomery's strength, both relative to his teammates and in absolute terms, is his ability to shut down the run. Very few players were better than him in this capacity, and most of the few who did demonstrate comparable run stopping ability weren't as good against the pass.

Which is all to say that I'm very confident moving forward with the interior of this defensive line. One day Cornelius Griffin (32) will cease to be the starter for the Washington Redskins. As Montgomery and Golston muscle each other for position, perhaps year in and year out, remember that a time will come when vacancies will permit them both to line up persistently side by side. And given the way Montgomery has demonstrably played well, and the way Golston has pushed Montgomery for position, at least from the coaching staff's perspective, I'm feeling quite good about the future of our two, young, over-achieving defensive tackles.

Is the Redskins defensive line the best in the biz? Naw, not by a long shot. But it was beyond my wildest dream that our 5th and 6th round defensive line picks from the 2006 draft would have come this far, this well, just two years later. I could not be happier with those picks and it is a huge credit to the team for making the most out of that second day (which also included Reed Doughty).