SB Nation - Dennis Norman

Trade Ideas for the San Diego Chargers

John Gennaro — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 21:00:20 -0000

Happy Monday everybody. I hope you all enjoyed your first non-football weekend in about 5 months and are ready to get a jump on the offseason. I have a theory that I'd like to share with you, which will undoubtedly be proven wrong by somebody in the comments, that might make the next six months a lot more fun for all of us.

You know how the Chargers (A.J. Smith, really) are typically boring in the offseason? They don't sign many free-agents and stay away from the big names. They don't go after glamor picks in the draft. They typically spend their offseason renegotiating contracts and signing certain players to extensions. What a boring time to be a Bolts fan. My theory is that the 2010 offseason may be one of the most entertaining ones in recent history because of the ramifications of there not being a new CBA agreement in place between the players and owners.

Follow me here. Owners are going to be completely unwilling to give long-term contracts to any free agent that is not "elite" this offseason. Why? Because they have no idea what the salary cap situation is going to be in 2012 and beyond. Whereas battles between teams for free agents in the past mostly revolved around "Who was willing to pay the most money and risk getting the least value?", it has now added the question of "Who is willing to pay the most money and possibly screw their entire team up in two years?" In addition to not knowing what the salary cap will be, or if there will even be one, teams have no idea what the penalties for going over the salary cap will be in the future as well. That'll keep guys like Daniel Snyder from saying "Screw it" and signing free agents to big contracts.

So why does this make for a more entertaining offseason for the Chargers? Because while A.J. Smith has shown to be shy about signing free agents, he is one of the best and most frequent traders amongst NFL GMs. Almost nobody values the draft and relatively unknown players more than Smith, and in trades he can get rid of a headache or a soon-to-be-rich player and get picks and/or unknown players with potential in return. That not only makes his cap situation easier (younger players get less money, typically), but it gives him a chance to do what he loves to do: scout for talent.

Here's a list of the Chargers Unrestricted Free Agents, Restricted Free Agents and Exclusive Rights Free Agents for this offseason.

UFA	RFA	ERFA
Alfonso Boone	Jeromey Clary	Antwan Applewhite
Brandon Manumaleuna	Tim Dobbins	Mike Tolbert
Dennis Norman	Malcom Floyd
Kassim Osgood	Antonio Garay
Jon Runyan	Eric Ghiaciuc
Ian Scott	Marques Harris
Kris Wilson	Vincent Jackson
	Marcus McNeill
	Shawne Merriman
	Darren Sproles
	Dontarrious Thomas
	Charlie Whitehurst

Let's break down a couple of possible scenarios by position.

OLB: Two words: Joey Porter. In the past I thought it'd be silly to trade to get him, because you'd probably be giving up equal value to get him and not really gaining anything. Now that he's been released though, and is pining to play for a team on or near the west coast, it makes total sense.

Joey, even at 32, is every bit as good as Shawne Merriman is right now. He may only have a year or two left, but it's not like the Chargers are even thinking about signing Merriman to a long-term deal. What the Chargers could do is slap a 1st round tender or even a 1st & 3rd on Merriman and then starting fielding calls. Let it be known that you'd accept a 2nd & and a 5th from the right team (outside the division, high picks, etc.). I'd be willing to bet that somebody like San Francisco or Cleveland would be willing to pay that. Now what you've done is replaced Shawne Merriman (who may or may not be a headache in the upcoming season due to his contract situation) with Joey Porter and two valuable draft picks. You've also probably saved yourself a little money and possibly a headache. A OLB group of Porter, Shaun Phillips, Larry English, Jyles Tucker, Antwan Applewhite and/or Marques Harris is better than the one they fielded in 2009.

WR: The rumors about the Dolphins' love for Vincent Jackson are already swirling. Hey, I love what VJ does for the offense as much as the next guy, but A.J. Smith can get back more than what Jackson is probably worth....you have to make that move. Here's a few reasons why it would make sense to start talking trade with Miami:

-Depth. I know a lot of people don't want to hear it, but Buster Davis is talented. Every time he steps on the field, he runs good routes and makes tough catches. His issue up until this post has been about health, not about talent. It's the same issue that Malcom Floyd had coming into the 2009 season.

Buster (24) is two years younger than Vincent Jackson (26), but will have a hard time getting time on the field if VJ, Floyd and Legedu Naanee are all in front of him next year. The team knows he has talent, and they know they're paying him good money....they would love to see results. My theory is that the team essentially gave Buster a year off to give him confidence and to get fully healthy....during that Redskins game he certainly showed off both.

I'm not saying Buster should take over the #1 WR spot. Far from it. I just think a WR group of Floyd, Naanee and Davis could be every bit as good as Jackson, Floyd and Naanee were in 2009. Also, recent history has shown that it's the QBs that make the passing game and not necessarily the WRs, which is why players like Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon have become well-known by NFL fans.

-Value. You could argue that Vincent Jackson's value will never be higher than it is right now. There's no guarantee that Antonio Gates (29) and Malcom Floyd (28) will be as good next year as they were this year. If the Chargers get a successful running game working in 2010, that's less balls coming VJ's way and possibly less TDs as well. Jackson just went through a season where him and the QB were the centerpiece of the offense, and that may not happen again. Also, there's another big reason that VJ's value may be dropping soon....

-Suspension/Trouble. Oh boy. I'm not going to really dive into this, but we all know that A.J. Smith keeps a folder on each player that's filled with issues that they've had off-the-field. Vincent Jackson's second DUI case is coming up this offseason, and by now we've all heard about him getting handcuffed for driving with an expired license on his way to the Jets playoff game. Also, we can't ignore the silly personal foul penalty that he got in the game after kicking the challenge flag back at Rex Ryan.

In a nutshell, Vincent Jackson has been a constant source of off-the-field trouble (and it gets worse during the playoffs, apparently) and is most likely facing a suspension at the beginning of the 2010 season. Do the Chargers, a team that is trying to break the habit of getting off to slow starts each season under Norv Turner, really need to be missing their offense's biggest weapon for the start of the season....just to have to worry about him getting in trouble come playoff time again?

So, the Dolphins are in love with Jackson, huh? I have an idea that A.J. Smith might like. Why not offer Miami Vincent Jackson in exchange for Ted Ginn Jr. and a 2nd round draft pick? Ginn would serve to replace Darren Sproles' kickoff returns, as well as providing WR depth. In the offense the Dolphins run, it's not as if he'd be getting any more snaps than he'd get here. The Chargers could then have Floyd/Naanee/Davis as the main WRs and let Buster return punts (which he's always had a knack for). They'd also have three 2nd round picks (probably the best value/dollar round) to play with. They could even use those picks to move up and get essentially any player they wanted.

I like both of these ideas. Replace Merriman with Porter, add two picks. Replace Jackson with Ginn, add another pick. Save a ton of money in the process if you want to try to lure in Chester Taylor. Isn't this essentially what the Patriots did during last years draft that had everybody raving about how smart they were? Smart teams buy low and sell high, and that's exactly what the Chargers would be doing. I think it's worth looking into.

Bolts & Dolts: Chargers at Titans

John Gennaro — Sat, 26 Dec 2009 15:44:16 -0000

This was the most complete win, and certainly the most dominating victory, for the San Diego Chargers this year if you take out the two games against the Chiefs. I know a lot of people were worried about this streaking Titans team heading into the Christmas Day matchup, but after I wrote up the game preview I knew it would turn out this way. Really, any time the game preview says the opposing team hasn't been very good at defending the pass and they just lost their best player for the season....it's going to be a big win for the Chargers.

Because this team was great in just about every facet of the game, there will be plenty of Bolts and not a lot of Dolts this week. I suppose that's a good thing. Nobody wants to be a grinch this time of year.

Bolts

My Parents. All four of them (birth parents and in-laws). My in-laws for just generally being awesome. For Christmas they got me a fancy new computer monitor that's bound to make me even more attached to my computer. They also whipped up a fantastic Christmas dinner and didn't grimace when I said me and my wife were leaving to "get home in time for the Chargers game". My regular parents get a "bolt" for still loving me (I hope) after I was a grouchy to them on the phone last night. Sorry guys, I was tired and I don't like distractions during the Chargers game. Merry Christmas and I'm sorry I didn't call you earlier. My dad gets the line of the night with "The first Christmas Day when I don't talk to you will be when I'm dead, you got that?" I do.

My Wife (and My Lucky Jersey). With the Chargers up 7-3 in the first quarter, and the Titans driving down the field easily, my wife suddenly looked at me and her eyes got really big. "Honey! Where's your lucky jersey?!?" It was sitting on the chair 2 feet away from me, but I jumped up and threw it on. I went from feeling nervous (I was sure Tennessee was going to get a TD) to immediately feeling calm. About 3 seconds after I sat back down on the couch, Brandon Siler was intercepting a Vince Young pass and all was right with the world. Thank you, lucky jersey.

Norv Turner/Ron Rivera. I don't know if anybody has noticed, but I've stopped putting Norv under "offense". It's because, as great of a play-caller as he is, he has really shined this year as a head coach. I think part of that is him getting better at it (it's always easier when you actually care about the players, which is hard to do when you hardly know them) and another big part of it is Ron Rivera.

First, when was the last time you saw a Chargers coach screaming at his players on the sidelines? I think I can remember Marty yelling at the o-line once. Wade Phillips, Ted Cottrell, these men are geniuses on the whiteboard but will never be feared. Everyone's seen Rivera blow up at least once and is terrified of being in his eyesight the next time it happens. While you don't need fear to motivate, it certainly doesn't hurt. It also allows Ron and Norv to play good cop/bad cop with Ron if he needs to.

Second, when was the last time the Chargers defense was this consistent? Sure, it's not the best defense in the league and it has holes if you can find them....yet Rivera just keeps scheming around them. Anyone want to guess the last time the Bolts gave up 30 points? Week 6, the game that sent the Chargers to 2-3, against the Broncos. The most points they've given up during the ten game winning streak is 24 points, which was to the Bengals. So the offense knows, going into each game, that if they put up 24 points (they average 28.7) they have a great chance of winning the game.

Third, (and this is back to Norv) does this team remind you of the Chargers of recent history? It doesn't for me. Those teams were inconsistent. They would blow out some teams (Jets, Patriots in 2008) and then get blown out the next week. They came out in games looking confused until they were trailing most of the time. The main thing the team always seemed to lack, and the main reason Chargers fans were afraid to face teams like the Patriots, Steelers, etc., was focus. It would be there one week but not the next. The team seemed to take the "one game at a time" motto too seriously, playing without a care for how it effected their overall season.

This team seems different for me. This team seems to have a killer instinct that was lacking in the past. Before, a road game on Christmas or trying to hype the offense back up after a stoppage due to a major injury seemed impossible for the Chargers. We used these as excuses and wondered why the Chargers could not be as mentally tough as the teams winning the Super Bowl each year. Why did they only look fierce when they were playing the Colts? This year, nothing effects them. Cross-country road game on Christmas Day? Just play. Back 3.5 games in the division? Just play. I don't know where this mental toughness came from, but I never expected to see it in San Diego. I credit Norv Turner, because he seems like the leader of the team.

Offense

Philip Rivers - 21/27, 264 yds, 2 TDs. Over at Music City Miracles, I was very clear that Philip has been making some bone-headed plays the last couple of weeks. Namely, dumb interceptions when he would get pressure on him. I was quick to follow up by saying that nobody knows their own faults, and works harder to fix them, than Rivers and that I expected to see him play smarter the next time he got pressured. He did.

(Side Note: I find it very humorous that Billy Volek replaced Rivers at the beginning of the 4th quarter, the offense ran 16 plays with him in there, and he didn't throw once.)

I've had it with people asking me if the Chargers regret letting Drew Brees walk away. I usually go back and explain the story, and why it made sense at the time. I always end it by saying I'd rather have Rivers though, even know, and that's always responded to with somebody disagreeing with me. I don't get why though. Rivers is two years younger, has had more team success (why does Brees get into the Brady/Manning talk without doing anything in the playoffs?), and is the only player close to Brees statistically this season. Rivers is 2nd in QB rating, 1st in yards per attempt, 1st in pass play of 20+ yards, 1st in % of his throws going for 1st down....what am I missing? That's before I even add in the Saints' 5th ranked rushing offense (Chargers are 29th) or their terrible 2009 schedule. Why would anybody take Brees over Rivers at this point?

LaDainian Tomlinson - 16 carries, 59 yds, 2 TDs. I can't tell you how hard I laughed when he missed on the TD throw. It just seemed like Norv was saying "Fine, you want to take the ball out of the hands of your best player? I'll show you how well that works." Anyways, a fine running day for the spry-looking LT. The offense line did a great job of opening holes for him, and he did a great job of hitting them and taking what was there. Seeing how good Chris Johnson was must've been like looking into the past for Tomlinson, but he's still a very effective RB in the league and seems happy to have the weight of the offense on somebody else's shoulders.

Darren Sproles - 5 carries, 38 rush yds, 2 catches, 23 rec yds. I said it last night in the open thread, but I'll say it again. Sproles always looks fantastic against teams that know they're out of it and don't feel like putting in the 100% effort it takes to catch him and tackle him. He's not starter material, and he's not great at running down the clock with a 3 point lead, but put him in there with a 20 point lead and he'll rip the heart out of the opponents. Also, he fair-caught a ball! I'm going to say it now: Sproles is going to have another huge, HUGE game in the playoffs. Probably against the Colts.

Antonio Gates/Vincent Jackson/Malcom Floyd - 11 catches, 199 yds, 1 TD. They're all grouped together because they all played equally as good as each other and opened up holes for one another. Floyd was always open after a Jackson catch, Jackson was open after a Gates catch and so on. With Floyd getting better and better every week, this might be the best receiving trio in football right now.

By the way, not enough was made of the Gates TD. It was a smart move by Gates to start running downfield when his defender left him, but why is nobody mentioning that Rivers threw a 30 yard strike while sliding to his knees. Do you have a football and some time? Go outside, find some grass, and try hitting a tree or anything with a strong spiral while sliding/falling to your knees. It's impossible. Your ball will either hit the ground 5 yards in front of you, or it'll go sailing over the tree. Although Gates got that TD, the scramble and the throw by Rivers is the only reason it happened.

Offensive Line. Both offensive lines. Marcus McNeill was beaten once or twice, but was fine besides that. Brandyn Dombrowski played very well. It was obvious that after they started getting some pressure on Rivers, the game plan was the force the pass-rushers to the outside and let Rivers step up in the pocket (resulting in the Titan defenders running into each other more than once). It worked wonderfully. The biggest Bolt goes to the interior of the line though. Nick Hardwick was a huge improvement over Scott Mruczkowski, which I did not expect in his first game back. He showed me the difference between a good Center and a Pro Bowl-caliber Center in one game. His play made it easier for Kris Dielman and Louis Vasquez, who both had huge games (especially as run-blockers). I now feel about 100 times more confident about the line heading into the playoffs.

Also deserving a Bolt was the backup line. It was Dombrowski at LT, Vasquez at LG (which he played in college), Dennis Norman at Center, Tyronne Green at RG and Jon Runyan at RT. They didn't have to do a lot of pass-protection (where it gets more complicated), but they did their job in bullying around the Titans' defensive line for the entire 4th quarter. It will be interesting to see if Runyan or Dombrowski gets the start in the Chargers' first playoff game, but at this point I'm really comfortable with either one.

Defense

Eric Weddle - 4 tackles, 1 interception, 2 defended passes. "Mr. Everywhere" (just made that up) certainly was last night. He had his usual game of disrupting passes, freaking out Vince Young on blitzes, picking off an inaccurately thrown pass and keeping Chris Johnson's 7 yard runs from turning into 70 yard runs. He and Shaun Phillips have been the Chargers' best defensive players this year, but Weddle was without a doubt the best one last night.

Steve Gregory - 6 tackles, 1 QB hit. He followed up probably his weakest game of the season with one of his strongest. He was great in coverage, very good in run support and Vince Young was looking for him to blitz on nearly every play. I saw him go down late in the game, but with 2 weeks (plus a couple of days) until the Chargers first playoff game he should be fine.

Quentin Jammer/Antonio Cromartie. Although VY's two interceptions went to a LB and a Safety, that was mostly because he had to throw away from the Chargers' CBs (who were shutting down just about everything). You can blame Young's 38% completion percentage last night on these two guys.

Defensive Line. Some of the guys that are playing insane on the line right now were literally taken off the street by A.J. Smith, who would be the favorite for Executive of the Year (or whatever the "Best GM" award is called) if Larry English was having a bigger impact this season. Still, Ian Scott and Alfonso Boone were disrupting just about every Titans offensive play last night. They pushed the pocket around and stopped a lot of runs. Luis Castillo had a great game too, and Travis Johnson and Vaughn Martin played good when they saw time. What a weird mix of defensive linemen, but they're getting the job done and were a big part of last night's win.

Dolts

There were no offense or defensive Dolts this week.

Almost Bolts

Mike Tolbert. Alright, fine. Even though he was running against a team that had given up on the game and their season, it's difficult to overlook a 5.5 YPC when the defense knows you're getting the ball on every play.

Jacob Hester. Had his best game as a blocker for LT that he's had all season. Perhaps Hardwick helped him in some way as well. I think putting the ball in Hester's hands might always be a mistake, but if he keeps opening up holes for Tomlinson I have no problem with him being on the field.

Legedu Naanee. Is there anybody on this team that can't make a tough catch? Naanee has great hands and can take a big hit after catching it too. To have at least 4 guys like that on the team makes the Chargers very dangerous on third down.

Brandon Siler. Excellent interception and good job against the run. Nothing stood out as being spectacular, but he certainly doesn't look lost as a starter.

Horse Tracks 9/17/09 - Kyle Orton still begloved; Champ & BDawk held out of practice but expected to play Sunday

Douglas A. Lee — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 11:42:47 -0000

DPP - Orton, offense look to fix mistakes - Lindsay Jones
Kyle Orton practiced with a glove again Wednesday; not surprisingly, the offensive players were not pleased with what they saw on film from Sunday.

DPP - Browns returner Cribbs to test coverage Units - Jeff Legwold
Although Jarvis Moss was inactive Sunday, he donned a black jersey yesterday along with Darrell Reid and Tom Brandstater in recognition for their exemplary work in practice last week. Champ and BDawk did not practice yesterday, while Josh Barrett did.

ESPN - Youth might dictate new hiring model - Jeffri Chadiha

DB - New Year, New Teams - Gray Caldwell
Looking at all that's changed since the last time the Broncos and Browns faced off. For Andra Davis, it's an early matchup versus the team he spent seven years with.

DB - Week 2: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DB - Week 2 - Wed: Orton - Broncos TV

DB - Week 2 - Wed: Dawkins - Broncos TV

CBS4 - Elway Thinks Orton Will Be Better As Time Goes On - Vic Lombardi

AP - Brian Dawkins Provides Energy Boost To Denver's Defense - Arnie Stapleton

PFW - Week Two matchup tidbits

DB - Buying Into His System - Chris Gentilviso

TC - Coaching in McDaniels’ blood from start - Mike McLain

DPP - Coaching's M&M connection - Mike Klis
Eric Mangini yesterday spoke of his former assistant Josh McDaniels.

DPP - Analysis: Running game needs boost - Jeff Legwold

DP - Broncos work out punters - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Neck injury limits Browns RB Lewis during practice

DPP - Question: How are Broncos' Dumervil, defensive front-liners progressing? - Jeff Legwold

CSG - Orton says he may keep glove on throwing hand for Sunday - Frank Schwab

CSG _ Broncos notes: Moreno not pleased with debut - Frank Schwab

CSG - Broncos' Orton trusts his head more than his arm - Frank Schwab

DP - Mailbag: The state of CU football - Woody Paige

DP - Numbers: Broncos through the years
Denver's record by decade

KDVR - Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Browns Preview - Chris Tanaka
Tanaka predicts Denver by a TD

DB - One in a Row! - Mark Cooper

ESPN - NFL: Schedule working against AFC West hopefuls - John Clayton
Oh, this is rich. John Clayton reminds us that he predicted but 3 victories for the Broncos in '09. Now he's preparing us by saying that even a 3-0 start for Denver could be followed by an 8-game losing streak.

Browns News

CPD - Braylon Edwards, Brady Quinn working to 'stay on the same page' for Cleveland Browns this season - Tony Grossi

CPD - Mary Kay Cabot and Tony Grossi break down Cleveland Browns-Denver Broncos: Video

CPD - Broncos' McDaniels says Brady Quinn was never part of Jay Cutler trade talks: Browns Insider - Mary Kay Cabot

CPD - Cleveland Browns: Brady Quinn Wednesday press conference

CPD - Cleveland Browns: Wednesday quotes from Braylon Edwards, Jamal Lewis and Brandon McDonald

CPD - Cleveland Browns: Eric Mangini Wednesday press conference

CPD - Branson Wright interviews Cleveland Browns receiver/kick returner Josh Cribbs

CPD - Cleveland Browns release Leon Williams - Tony Grossi

NH - Browns notes: McDonald eager to avoid Royal letdown - Jeff Schudel

AFC West News

NFL - Bum ankle leaves L.T. limping in a boot, but he's confident he's OK

SDUT - Bolts have options if LT stays hobbled - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Chargers sign versatile lineman - Kevin Acee
The Dolts added former Jags OL Dennis Norman.

SDUT - Scouting the Ravens

SFC - Raiders rookie says he did his job - David White

SFG - Raiders Silver and Black Blog : Javon Walker lives - David White
Javon will be Jokeland's third WR and backup PR this week.

SFG - Raiders Silver and Black Blog : Miller time is over, for now - David White

NFL - Cassel tests left knee at Chiefs' practice, could play Sunday

KCS - Chiefs want Wade in the mix quickly - Adam Teicher

NFL - WR Lance Long claimed off waivers by Chiefs

KCS - Chiefs notes: Haley says Cassel looks better - Kent Babb

NFL News

NFL - NFL fines Jets, Mangini $125K total for breaking injury report rules

NFL - Eagles' McNabb held out of practice; status for Sunday still unknown

NFL - Bills starting LB Posluszny out six weeks after breaking left arm

NFL - Two teens admit to vandalizing Bills CB McKelvin's lawn

KHOU - Texans sign former UH star RB Alridge

NFL Opinion

NFL - No-huddle offense appears to be making a comeback - Pat Kirwan

Y! - Patriots, Cardinals have cause for concern - Charles Robinson

NFP - Tavern talk: What QBs will be left standing? - Mike Lombardi

NFP - NFL notes: Change in store for Saints, Eagles - Matt Bowen

NFP - Wednesday whys: The reason for veteran signings - Andrew Brandt

SI - Mark Sanchez is one reason Week 1 conclusions are bad - Ross Tucker

SI - Tony Romo attacks NFL's passing efficiency records - Kerry J. Byrne

SI - Miami Dolphins' Ricky Williams making most of second chance - Dave Hyde

Are the Jaguars a Young Team?

Tkopa — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 10:59:27 -0000

"We’ve taken a very aggressive approach at it; the amount of turnover is unusually large and you can’t continue to do that and have much success. Part of that was moving on, purging guys that just didn’t fit," Del Rio said. "We do have a young team."

I read that and nodded, yes they are a young team. But, then I thought about it. "Hey wait a minute, what does that actually mean?" I thought. A young college team is freshmen and sophomores that probably won't contend for the National Title, I get that. Is a young pro team a lot of rookies? Is it a lot of first and second year guys? What exactly is Jack telling us? I really don't know so I'll leave that question for the comments. Let's look at who the Jaguars kept, and what youth there is on the squad.

Offensive Line: The preseason starting lineup has been Tra Thomas (12th year), Vince Manuwai (7th year), Brad Meester (10th year), Mo Williams (9th year), Uche Nwaneri (3rd year), Tony Pashos (7th year) and Dennis Norman (9th year). I know they want to work Eben Britton and Eugene Monroe in but they should have to earn a spot over a lower performing veteran. I don't see a young team here; in fact this is a group of veterans that should be dependable.

Offensive Backfield: David Garrard is the QB (8th year), Gregg Jones at FB (6th year), Maurice Jones Drew RB (4th year). If you include Tight Ends, we have Marcedes Lewis (4th year), Ernest Wilford (6th year), Greg Estandia (3rd year). Again, a strong group of veterans that should be ready on game day, in fact climbing into their most productive years.

Receivers: Torry Holt is the number one receiver (11th year), Troy Williamson is number two (5th year), number three receiver will probably be a rookie.

Offensive Summary: One guy on the starting offensive team will be a rookie. If they decide to go with Monroe and Britton, they will have dependable veterans right behind them. To be honest, unless there is a problem with the players on this team, this amount of experience on offense should be able to deliver a competitive performance.

Let's look at the defense.

Defensive line: John Henderson (8th year), Reggie Hayward (9th year), Derrick Harvey (2nd year), Quentin Groves (2nd year), Terrance Knighton (1st year), Derek Landri (3rd year), Rob Meier (10th year). Basically I see a nice mix of veterans and youth in here with most of the youth represented by second year guys, Groves and Harvey. I can give a slight nod to youth here, but not inexperience. This line is not as seasoned as the offensive line but is a nice combination of fresh legs and wisdom.

Linebackers: Daryl Smith (6th year), Justin Durant (3rd year), and Clint Ingram (4th year). Brian Iwuh (4th year), Adam Seward (5th year) all represent the core of the lineup. There is nothing but experience in this group and should represent an easy bunch to coach to be productive.

Defensive Backfield: The starters look to be Rashean Mathis (7th year), Brian Williams (8th year), Reggie Nelson (3rd year), Gerald Alexander (3rd year), Sean Considine (5th year) Tyron Brackenridge (3rd year), Scott Starks (5th year), Brian Witherspoon (3rd year) and Derek Cox (rookie). I know they would like to integrate Derek Cox into the lineup but the basic starting lineup will have 3 years or more experience.

Defensive Summary: Harvey, Groves and Knighton represent the true youth in the defense and the line is on the younger side. Other than that, the backfield has a strong mix of experience and should know what is expected. Maybe a slight nod to lack of playing experience?

My Take: When I looked at it, I was surprised at how much experience the Jaguars have. They don't resemble a young college team. If we can't post 8 wins with this group, Gene has more work to do. A lot more.

So help me understand, what do you think Jack is trying to say?

- Terry O'Brien

2008 Season Retrospective: Did injuries "Neg Out" the Jaguars?

River City Rage — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 16:22:22 -0000

What explains the late season meltdown of the Jacksonville Jaguars?

With training camp so close you can almost smell the sweat on the blocking sleds, It's time for a (hopefully) final look back at the 2008 season, and what it means for the 2009 team. Two articles popped on my radar recently, each offering a "scientific" examination of the Jacksonville Jaguars, but with differing conclusions. K.C. Joyner, writing for the New York Times, looks at the injuries to the Jaguars offensive line and how it offers little excuse for the late season meltdown that sent the team on a rocketship toward rebuilding. On the other side, Football Outsiders, the statistics guru's of the NFL, determined that no team missed more time for injuries than the Jaguars, and that they should be ripe for a comeback in 2009.

Going back to Joyner's article, he uses a system that tracks how many time an offensive lineman was the key player in a run play, and the success rate of said lineman to come up with a percentage.

LT - Khalif Barnes - 88 POA runs, 66 POA wins, 75.0% POA win rate

LG - Uche Nwaneri - 134 POA runs, 111 POA wins, 82.8% POA win rate

C - Brad Meester - 72 POA runs, 62 POA wins, 86.1% POA win rate

RG - Dennis Norman - 147 POA runs, 125 POA wins, 85.0% POA win rate

RT - Tony Pashos - 143 POA runs, 123 POA wins, 86.0% POA win rate

Per his metrics, having three blockers with a POA win rate of over 85% is good, especially considering the injuries on the line. He correctly calls out Barnes as the "weakest link", though he distinguishes that his performance was not injury related. I would argue that having the players on the inside replaced would probably have a detrimental effect on his numbers, but that's for another post.

What I find problematic about these numbers is that they simply do not match the product that we saw on the field. Sure, these measurements show that the Jaguars offensive line was effective, but when statistics are vastly different than the "gut impression", it draws into question the very validity of the numbers. Statistics driven analysis is fantastic and something that the NFL has lacked, but there are some elements that require some work. One is in tracking the offensive line. Without game film like the coaches see, it's very difficult to follow the offensive line play. The camera follows the ball and the quarterback, and often hides the nuances of offensive line play. The end zone camera position gives us the best view of holes and cut back lanes, but the general broadcast camera position is horrible at showing who did what in a particular play. Until the NFL decides that fans and the media can have regular access to the end zone camera, it's going to be hard to create an accurate measurement.

But I'm seriously digressing from my point. David Garrard went from one of the least sacked and least mistake prone quarterbacks in 2007, to one of the most sacked in 2008. The Jaguars running game went from being an iconic factor in games to an afterthought, as David was forced into 3rd and long over and over and over again. We watched the games, we saw the line play, we saw the holes close, we saw Fred and Jones-Drew struggle, and yet we are supposed to believe that the statistics say that the offensive line was good, and that the Jaguars had a case of the funk and fell off the grid?

That's exactly what Joyner argues:

A. Management and/or the coaches were feeding this line of thinking to the announcers to take the heat off a team that had badly underachieved, and
B. This mind-set eventually made its way through to the team itself

Thought A came to mind because Jack Del Rio strikes me as a media-savvy coach who is good at helping to steer story lines in a direction of his choosing. The sense my scouting eye got is that the announcers bought into the injury story, but, unfortunately for Del Rio, so did his players. They kept hearing the press say that their injuries were the reason for the downfall and they might have ended up believing it. Deep down, I think the team knew that injuries weren’t killing the offense, but when the players heard the excuse being used elsewhere, they were free to jump on that bandwagon.

What he argues, in my opinion, is absurd. If, and that's a strong word, but if it's true that the team attempted to score a PR "win" by blaming the season on the injuries and that Del Rio let that mindset change the team from a "next man up" to a "quit and lay down", than Del Rio should have joined James Harris and left the team. But I don't buy it. Did the Jaguars have a boat-load of problems in the locker room? Absolutely. Was it because the team bought into it's own negitive hype? I just don't think so.

Statistics, as we know, can tell the same story with different conclusions: Take Football Outsiders, for example:

Jacksonville had a 1.9% DVOA, and their expected win total was 8.9 -- shocking, perhaps, but a function of their underlying performance. A 1.9% DVOA is pretty good: 26 other teams since 1994 (the earliest year we've calculated DVOA for) have had a DVOA between 1% and 3%. Of those 26 teams, exactly one won as few as five games: The 2003 Jaguars, who promptly won nine games the next season. The average team in that range won 8.5 games.

Furthermore, the Jaguars had a lot of injuries last year. By our injury metric, Adjusted Games Lost (which takes into account historical injury rates for a given role/position on the injury report and the player's role as a starter or reserve on the team), the Jaguars were the tenth-most injured team in the league last year. Injuries tend to regress to league average, which is another positive indicator for the Jaguars; a team's AGL has a .26 correlation with the change in wins in subsequent seasons.

So, which is it? Injuries or being psyched out?

I'd like to see what ya'll think of this. Why do you think the Jaguars fell apart last season?

Quick Bytes: Chad Slaughter and Milford Brown become Jacksonville Jaguars

River City Rage — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 14:59:17 -0000

Quick Bytes: The daily digest of everything you need to know about the Jacksonville Jaguars (and other things).

So I just finished re-watching the Jaguars-Titans game and it honestly was not as bad as I had thought. Defense and Special Teams were outstanding and kept the game within reach. Vince Young continued to prove that he's not ready to be a team leader, and the Jaguars start the season much like last year, 0-1.

Of course, there's a teeny-weenie problem with our offensive line. Specifically the absence of any left and right guards. How important could that be to a team that likes to run the ball?

: The first issue the Jaguars had to address was figuring out who to bring in to fill out the Jaguars depth on the offensive line. The Jaguars signed OG Milford Brown and OT Chad Slaughter, players that are best described as journeymen, to say the least. Milford was most recently seeing game action with the St. Louis Rams when they suffered an offensive line massacre. Ryan of Turf Show Times, the SB Nation St. Louis Rams Blog, had this to say about Milford:

Ah, Milford Brown. His tenure in St. Louis was brief and unmemorable. The Rams never got much going up the middle last season and upgraded this year. Brown was let go and the Rams turned to two rookies from the 2008 draft to fill in the depth chart. He certainly didn't look like starter material with the Rams last season, but neither was anyone else around him on the line which could color my view.

So there's that.

: Chad Slaughter is a little more interesting. First off, he's big, 6-8, 340lbs, so he can certainly fill some space. Second, he's a tackle, not a guard, which helps back up Barnes, though still raises some questions about what happens in the middle of the line. Mo Williams and Vince Manuwai are beasts as run blockers, can Slaughter get into the rotation and be effective?

: Perspective time. Think ahead a few weeks, Brad Meester comes back, which means that Dennis Norman can play guard, which makes our line look like Barnes, Norman, Meester, Nwaneri, and Pashos, which is a pretty solid line, albeit one that has zero margin of error. The Jaguars have next to nothing on the shelf on the line and the injuries put into question the very key to what the Jaguars do.

That said, adversity brings good things out of teams. So have faith.

: The Jacksonville Police Department say that Richard Collier was "targeted". Jaguars players and Richard's family have inreased the reward for information from $1,000 to $10,000. Richard is considered to be in critical but stable condition.

:WTF is going on with Vince Young?

-Chris

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Who had a worse day on Sunday

Houston Texans

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Indianapolis Colts

30 votes

Jacksonville Jaguars

69 votes

New England Patriots

127 votes

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