SB Nation - Andre Goodman

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

2 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall, left, avoids the tackle of Indianapolis Colts linebacker Gary Brackett in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. Marshall had 21 receptions for 200 yards in the game. The Colts defeated the Broncos 28-16. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Christmas is coming - and I, for one, am hoping for a much more joyous holiday season than I experienced last December. All I got for Christmas last year was the Broncos' historic collapse, and all I had to give was the one scenario that could possibly be worse than the season-ending Chargers game (it involved hypothetically cutting an apple, slipping, and stabbing myself in the groin WHILE watching that game).

I'm not much for moral victories, but today in Donny Deutschland, I will talk about why I feel better about Sunday's loss than I have about any Broncos loss in years. There's no time to waste, so let's not waste any time. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. I learned on Sunday that what I suspected was the case, was in fact, the case. That is, the Broncos can play with Indianapolis, at Indianapolis. It happened a little differently than I thought it would, but the Broncos competed, and got back in the game after getting down in really ugly fashion. Consider these statistics, as I pretend that I care about statistics for a moment. The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 posessions. These measures would tend to indicate victory, but in this case, the Broncos fell a little short.

For next time, we can internalize a few thoughts:

a. The Broncos have the players and schemes to cover the Colts receivers, pressure Peyton Manning, and generally disrupt their offense.

b. The Broncos have the players and schemes to move the ball at will against the Colts defense.

c. As a fan base, we all mistakenly thought to ourselves "Here we go again" when the Colts got up 21-0 after four possessions. We can take this game as a lesson that the past doesn't indicate the future. Those Broncos teams which got their doors blown off by the Colts passing game are definitely not these Broncos.

One general concern is that the Broncos could have run the ball better, and will need to next time. I felt the run scheme was too zone-heavy and horizontal, and it played into the Colts' plan to run-blitz the gaps. A smaller, faster team needs to be man-blocked with a vertical scheme. Those are guys you don't necessarily want moving laterally, because they're comfortable doing so.

The other concern is that at money time, Dallas Clark needed more and better attention. Josh Barrett needed to be on the field manning him up, because he's the best guy in the NFL at covering TEs man-to-man.

All in all, I am proud of the way the Broncos stayed in the game, despite some reasons that lesser men would take to quit. This was really a game which turned on a few plays, and I am pleased to know that the Broncos can compete with Indianapolis, unlike in past years. This week, it's the Raiders, and luckily, JaMarcus Russell will be under center again. Expect Elvis Dumervil to get some shots at him. The Broncos can take care of business at home, and position themselves well to make the postseason. Happy Raiders Week, friends.

2. Information From My Eyes, Broncos at Colts:

a. Andre' Goodman got beat on a crossing route by Pierre Garcon on the first offensive play of the game, and in the moment, I wondered if there was a major speed mismatch. Goodman settled down to play Garcon spectacularly the rest of the game, breaking up four well-thrown balls. Goodman has been terrific all year, but I'd call this his best game as a Bronco.

b. When the Broncos drafted Darcel McBath, I'd never heard of him. I'm very impressed with his play as a rookie, though, and he had a fantastic game Sunday. He separated Dallas Clark from the ball on a 3rd down, and also baited Peyton Manning into his third interception. It's a real bummer that he broke his forearm and is gone for the season, but he showed well when he got the opportunities. I look for him to make a serious run at Renaldo Hill's starting job next season.

c. I really "misunderestimated" the Colts' DTs, Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson. They both played fantastic, and drove the Broncos' interior players backward consistently.

d. Ryan Clady didn't play very well in the running game, which was a departure from what we've been seeing lately. He got pushed backward several times when he lost leverage, and he misread a few run blitzes, and didn't hit the right guy. He's young and growing, and we can only hope he learns from this game.

e. Brandon Marshall was spectacular, of course. It's obvious that Kyle Orton really trusts him to make plays at this point. I wish he trusted Eddie Royal a little more, though. The truth is, though, Royal hasn't come up with some plays when he's had chances to do so.

f. I was happy to see Jabar Gaffney back in the mix this week. He's a pro's pro, and the Broncos offense is better when he is involved.

g. I was pleased with what I saw from Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil, despite the Broncos' lack of sacks. Both played well against the run, and generated pressure against Manning.

h. Peyton Hillis isn't a very good lead blocker, and I think a key part of the trouble the running game had was with the loss of Spencer Larsen. Larsen has been knocking heads the last two weeks, and he wasn't there this time, obviously.

Hillis is a good RB, but he's a true HB, not a FB. The truth is, he is where he should be on the depth chart; the third RB for the Broncos. Zappa said that some DP posters were calling for Knowshon Moreno to be benched, and Hillis to get the starting job. That's not going to happen, and frankly, it's asinine. Hillis could get more opportunity to make plays, but he deserves to be behind Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. There's no question in my mind of that.

i. The Colts' last drive was enabled by missed tackles by Vonnie Holliday (first play of the series) and Mario Haggan (3rd down inside the Broncos 10).

j. Oh, Dallas Clark. Ty Law did a good job on him, but he often was assigned to cover Austin Collie. Wesley Woodyard is a good zone player, but he can't cover a Clark in man-to-man. That 4th-and-4 was badly schemed, because Brian Dawkins shouldn't be manned up on Clark, either.

Finally, at the end of the game, the approach should have been to look at the formation. The power was left, and the only receiving threat was Clark, playing with his hand down on the right side. You need somebody to drive him straight into the ground, so he can't get out in the pattern. That's how I would coach that situation, anyway. Tackle him when he pretends to block, without getting called for holding.

k. D.J. Williams had a very good game, except for the one stupid penalty. Darrell Reid got (another) one of those too, while we're at it.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games

a. I thought Thursday's Browns-Steelers game was pretty riveting, and I almost wish I went (but not quite). Several of my friends tried to get me to go, because everybody in the world was trying to dump their tickets. It was 12 degrees, with 50 mph winds, and felt negative-7 in Cleveland that night. That's a recipe for freezing your hind-parts off, as Omar would say.

The Browns are changing for the better, and I wonder if it saves Eric Mangini's job. They're doing some very interesting things, like using Mike Furrey at FS. He's played both ways in his career, but has been more of a WR in the NFL, and caught 98 passes for the Lions in 2006, which was second in the NFL.

He did some nice things at Safety in the game, and it reminded me of Troy Brown playing defense for the Patriots, though, as I mentioned, Furrey has played defense at the professional level. You have to be impressed with a player doing what it takes to help his team win.

b. A guy who I have always liked, who the Browns found for free is Matt Roth. He got on the wrong side of Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano in Miami, and they put him on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list, and then waived him in November. The Browns smartly claimed him, and he's played very well for the Browns thus far. The Sam position in a 3-4 is pretty hard to fill, because it's a unique skill set. Lamarr Woodley and Mario Haggan are both very good at it, and Adalius Thomas used to be, but like RT on offense, there are a lot more average 3-4 Sams than there are good ones. Roth is a good one, because he sets the edge well, and generates a good pass rush when he's called upon to do so. Finding a guy like him in-season is what a bad team has to do.

c. Two unheralded guys who the Browns have discovered on offense are RB Chris Jennings and TE Evan Moore. Jennings won a Grey Cup recently with the Montreal Alouettes, and looked like the best back on the Browns roster last Thursday. He ran with power and explosion against an excellent run defense.

I meant to mention Moore last week and forgot; but I know a football player when I see one, and he's a player. He was a big WR at Stanford for 4 years, and also played basketball for his first 2 years. His fluidity, body control, and overall athleticism jump off the screen, and really remind me of Antonio Gates. I don't know if he's as fast as Gates, but he looks to me like he could definitely be a Brent Celek-caliber receiving TE. He's been key to Brady Quinn's recent improvement, because Quinn does his best throwing work inside the numbers.

Jennings and Moore are two players who the Browns can be very excited about, as they figure out what their program is during the offseason. Like Roth, they came with no significant cost. Now the Browns just need to nail their offseason.

d. I had a friend who is a Steelers fan ask me what was wrong with his team, and I think I may have disappointed him by not having a real definitive answer ready. It's kind of a tough question to answer, really, because Mike Tomlin had it exactly right when he said it was a function of struggles in all three phases of the game.

The defense really misses Troy Polamalu, who I think might be the most irreplaceable defensive player in the NFL. No safety plays with the speed of Polamalu, and the Steelers are much more conservative in their blitz packages without him. Their CBs are also playing pretty poorly over the last five games. On offense, I think the Steelers play-calling has been suspect. Rashard Mendenhall has emerged as a good RB, and the Steelers seem reluctant to commit to letting him run. I'm not surprised at the rumblings Sunday that some offensive coaches are likely going to get whacked after the season.

e. Now, on to why the Browns won Thursday. There were two reasons. One reason is that Joshua Cribbs is a great football player, and he carried his team on offense and special teams. The other is that the Browns covered the Steelers' receivers at a shockingly high level. ST&NO Favorite Brandon McDonald was fantastic. He might have had the best coverage game I have seen from a CB this year (although Andre' Goodman was awesome on Sunday, too). Eric Wright was strong on the other side too, though he gave up a few completions to Santonio Holmes. As has often been the case with the Broncos this season, the coverage allowed the pressure to get to Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked 8 times.

f. It was another annoying weekend when almost every game was early, including the Broncos. I had the Chicago-Green Bay game on at the same time as the Broncos game,. and as I watched some of it, I was struck by the fact that neither team showed me anything that I didn't already know about them. Aaron Rodgers continued his recent run of getting sacked less, and the Packers defense was strong again. The Bears had some flashes, but self-destructed at key times.

The only real takeaway from this, to me, is another reminder why I don't really like fantasy football. The number one player in the Official MHR League this year has been my QB, Rodgers. In real football terms, he played fine on Sunday. He completed 16 of 24 throws for 180 yards, and lost a fumble on a blind-side sack. His team won the game, so no worries, right? Well, in fantasy terms, he tanked. Not only that, I am playing Zappa in the playoffs this week, and he has Ryan Grant, who had a monster game with 137 yards and 2 TDs, because the Bears were playing coverage to prevent big plays in the passing game.

g. Speaking of guys who tanked on my fantasy team, Randy Moss, this skunky, warm Miller High Life is for you. One catch for 16 yards, and a lost fumble? Really? He really looked like he wasn't trying hard, too; it was a total flashback to the Oakland days. Good thing I had Brandon Marshall and the Eagles (TD scoring) defense.

h. I think the Patriots are in trouble, and that their culture needs an adjustment. I read Bill Belichick's sending tardy players home as a clear indication of that. Adalius Thomas lipped off in the media, and got benched for it, and Randy Moss did it with his play somewhat on Sunday. I wouldn't be shocked if both are gone after this season. Thomas is gone for sure, and Moss is a possibility. The Patriots have a lot of draft assets with which to restock the WR position, and they're pretty solid at LB anyway, with guys like Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich making positive contributions.

It was pretty interesting how Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came to Moss's aid on Monday, after he clearly was dogging some pass routes. Michael Lombardi had a good point on NFL Network that Moss has done that his whole career, and that the Patriots probably weren't too alarmed by it. I think it's pretty bad, personally.

i. Scary moment in Arlington, Texas, when DeMarcus Ware was carted off the field with a neck injury. The Chargers had a false start, and then went right down the field in two plays to score the deciding TD afterward. Reports on Monday were that Ware would miss the next two weeks, which would really handicap the Dallas defense. Most casual fans think of Ware as just a pass rusher, but he is a rare player who stars against the run, and in zone coverage too.

j. I alluded to this thought last week, but it was well-articulated by Michael Lombardi last night; Dallas's struggles have nothing to do with what month it is. The same can be said of the Chargers and their success in the month of December. If you're playing in a lot of places where there's bad weather, then maybe the month is a semi-meaningful data point, but neither Dallas nor San Diego particularly qualifies. I know somebody is going to say that a game in December is a pressure game, but even that's not true a lot of times. San Diego has tended to be healthy in December, and Dallas has tended to be banged up. San Diego has tended to play weak late-season schedules, and Dallas has tended to play difficult ones. Don't get caught up in things which Peter King would incorrectly call a factoid.

k. That Radio Shack commercial with the sleeping scruffy dude saying "Dance, Sugar Plum Fairies" is bizarre. It makes no sense at all to me, and I can't imagine how it would make anybody want to shop at Radio Shack, or buy that craptastic phone from Sprint.

l. NBC lucked out with a great game on Sunday night between the Eagles and Giants. Neither defense looked particularly good, but both offenses lit it up. The difference in the game was a defensive TD from Sheldon Brown, and a punt-return TD from DeSean Jackson. Those plays also provided the difference in the Shallow Thoughts team beating Zappa's Sactown Beavers in the playoffs.

m. I would never let Jackson get off the line of scrimmage without getting hit. Teams just insist on letting this guy run free through their secondary, and he kills them. Little, fast guys like him must be re-routed off the line, and then you want over/under coverage on him after that. He's not the typical big, physical number-1 WR like Brandon Marshall, but he does need double-team attention, or at least Cover-3 behind him, so he can be hit at the line with confidence.

n. Brandon Jacobs, to me, is like a 98-mph fastball that's a little too straight, and rarely misses bats. Jacobs has been running harder lately than he was early in the season, but he doesn't make anybody miss. He takes so many hits, and this year, he's going down more easily than he used to. I think the Giants offense is better when Ahmad Bradshaw is getting more carries than Jacobs at this point, even as Jacobs has been better lately.

o. Speaking of the Giants, I want to share some ST&NO light with a Giants fan, because I've coincidentally been listening to his music as I wrote this part of the column. If you like hip hop, you ought to check out Nickel at his website www.SpotMeANickel.com. He's got a couple albums worth of MP3s available for free download there. I went to high school with the guy at Norwich Free Academy in Norwich, CT, and it's cool to see him doing well, and making good music.

p. As always, I watched 5 games on Monday night, and the one I learned the most from was the New Orleans-Atlanta game. Very simply, New Orleans deserved to lose the game, and I haven't seen or heard anybody acknowledge that. I take that as a reaffirmation that my effort is worth the time.

Brent Grimes got called for two horrible pass-interference penalties, on plays where he reached around his man to play the ball. Those two plays directly led to 14 points being scored, and the Saints won by 3. The officials bogusly penalized ST&NO Favorite Thomas DeCoud on an even better play in the fourth quarter too, but Garrett Hartley subsequently missed a Field Goal, so it didn't affect the scoreboard. The Saints are a very good team, and they don't need any bonus help, but apparently you can't breathe on their receivers. It reminded me of the 2006 NBA Finals, when Dwyane Wade got "fouled" practically every time he touched the ball, and it disgusted me just as much to watch.

q. Jonathan Vilma deserves credit for sealing the win for New Orleans. He intercepted Chris Redman with 3 minutes to go in the game. Then, after the Saints arrogantly tried a fake field goal, rather than taking the points and going up 6, Vilma tackled the formidable Jason Snelling cold in the open field, a yard short of the first down on 4th and 2. He made the plays that were there to be made.

r. While I'm on the topic of the Saints, here's an E! True Hollywood Story for you. Or maybe it's a Letterman-style Top 2 list. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Top 2 Things Ted Bartlett Currently Doesn't Give A Damn About (And Al Roker's Forecast Calls For No Change:)

1. Whether or not the Colts or Saints go 16-0, and on a related note, whether or not they rest their starters.

2. Who wins the NFL MVP Award.

Going 16-0 doesn't matter to anything. All it would do is create something which Peter King would someday mistakenly call a factoid (even though it's actually a fact). The only thing that matters is going 3-0 (or 4-0) in the Playoffs. Plus, the whole thing puts Mercury Morris back in the spotlight, and he's a jerk who doesn't deserve it.

As for the MVP Award, really, who cares? I may start caring if somebody other than a QB or RB can win, other than the rare Lawrence Taylor in 1986. (Since the AP award began in 1957, only DT Alan Page, K Mark Moseley, and Taylor have won the award from positions other than QB or RB. Taylor is the only winner for the Pro Football Writers Association award, which began in 1975. This is an absolute farce.)

Remember ST&NO Rule #1: If reporters vote for it, and decide it, it's usually not particularly worth paying attention to. That includes any and all power rankings, the NFL All-Pro team, all season-ending awards in all sports, and membership in all Halls of Fame. Reporters often mean well, and they add some value to the overall football discourse, but the value they add ends when they're not asking questions, finding things out, and reporting those things. When you ask them to judge something, most can't get past the very obvious, or what other people tell them, and nearly all are biased by what they consider to be the most interesting story. While that's understandable, given the fact that they're in the interesting story business, it's also self-serving, and represents noise rather than a reflection of truth.

s. The more I watch Chad Henne, the more I like his mechanics, all the way through the process of playing QB. I most especially like the way he carries out his fakes after he hands off the ball. You can tell that he's very well coached, both at the collegiate level and the professional level.

t. Speaking of good coaching, if Head Coaching jobs were being handed out based only upon excellence as a coordinator, Mike Mularkey would be looking pretty good for a shot at another job. People who know things about offense, and pay attention, know that Mularkey has been getting a lot of production out of some pretty marginal talent the last two seasons. It's equal parts scheme, knowing the capabilities of his players, and getting his guys to execute, but Atlanta's offense overachieves. Remember - Mularkey didn't get fired in Buffalo; he resigned in 2006 because he didn't see eye-to-eye with the recently hired Marv Levy. He's up there with Houston's Kyle Shanahan on offense, and the Broncos' Mike Nolan, Cincinnati's Mike Zimmer, and Arizona's Bill Davis on defense as guys who I think are adding a great deal of value to their sides of the ball.

u. I tend to dislike University of Texas players, because they have a well-known reputation for being coddled in Austin, and often coming into the NFL as soft players. A limitation of making evaluations from a distance is that you sometimes have to rely on information which may or may not be meaningful, such as the fact that coaches are prohibited from cursing at players at UT. That's pretty absurd in my opinion, like the urban legend about stress cards in basic training.

I didn't take to Brian Orakpo much coming out of college, partially due to the UT factor. Turns out, he's very good, and he's brought a lot to the table for Oakland. He has had a very good rookie season, but he was dominant on Sunday against the Raiders' bad offensive line and indecisive JaMarcus Russell. I still prefer Knowshon Moreno to Orakpo for the long haul, and I still think the Redskins should have taken Michael Oher (after the Packers should have taken Michael Oher). Orakpo was a good choice though, and is a good player, so I missed on that one.

v. I said a couple weeks ago that I was pretty sure that the Chiefs didn't regret acquiring Matt Cassel, and he's proceeded to have the two worst games of his career the last two weeks. His ability is very clear, so I still don't think they regret it, but he needs to step it up, and buy Todd Haley and Scott Pioli some cover. Kansas City has an aggressive local sports media, led by Adam Teicher and Jason Whitlock. Whitlock has already renamed Pioli as Scott Egoli, so it would be mighty helpful to this regime if they and Cassel could finish the season stronger than they've been showing, and feel like there's something to build on.

w. A vital part of a 3-step drop passing play is that the outside blocker on the throw side (usually the Tackle) needs to cut the Defensive End and get him on the ground. The 49ers RT, Adam Snyder, failed to cut Darnell Dockett twice in the first half Monday night, resulting in an Interception by Dockett, and another deflection by Dockett, which Alex Smith caught himself, and promptly was tackled for a 6-yard loss. Neither play was Smith's fault; his job is to get to the top of his drop, and let the ball go. Snyder's job is to clear the throwing lane.

x. Speaking of guys clearly not doing their jobs (and jumping back to the Dallas game because of the topic), Tony Dungy was right on when he was asked if coaching was the problem in Dallas. He said that he knows Terence Newman has been coached to jam a WR and re-route him in Cover-2, and that coaching definitely wasn't the problem on the big Vincent Jackson 39-yard catch on 3rd and 12 (right after the aforementioned Ware injury).

That was the key play of the game, and Newman didn't make it. As the play happened live, I yelled out "Where's the f$%^&* jam, 41?" I was glad Dungy called him out, although I bet he wasn't moved to profanity like I was. I've always thought Newman was highly overrated, by virtue of being a Cowboy. It comes with wearing the blue star, I am afraid.

y. Usually, when a defensive lineman is drafted highly, you expect him to be a big sack guy. The Bengals once drafted Justin Smith fourth overall, in 2001. His career high in sacks, mostly as a Right DE in a 40-front, was 8.5 in his rookie season. He had 6.5, 5, 8, 6, 7.5, and 2 in his next five seasons, which are respectable numbers, but not for an open-side DE drafted that highly.

Smith signed a 6-year $45 million deal with San Francisco in 2008, and moved to 5-technique in a 30-front. It's the role he should have been playing all along, because he's always been a physical, block-defeating player more than a speed-rushing player. It's not too different than the highly drafted Derrick Harvey from the Jaguars, or Jamaal Anderson for the Falcons (who moved to DT eventually). Their skill sets are just better suited to playing with physicality than with speed. (Harvey got only his second sack of the year Sunday, and Anderson has 0.5).

Anyway, Smith was dominant on Monday night, and consistently held the point of attack, while often penetrating and disrupting the Cardinals offense. It sure seemed like he is earning his money. I was also very impressed with the pass-rushing skills of Ahmad Brooks, who used to be just a MLB.

z. Another rookie I criticized for seeming to be soft was Beanie Wells, and he continues to play like he isn't. His TD run early in the 4th quarter Monday night was a man's TD run, all second effort. He did fumble later in the 4th quarter, but it was on a kill-shot by Dashon Goldson, who had a couple of those in Monday night's game.

aa. Genetics are a funny thing. In my family, we have something called the Bartlett Calves. My dad and all his siblings have them, and all my siblings and I have them, even my 8-year old half-sister Abby. The Bartlett Calves are notable for being disproportionately muscular and large, compared to the rest of our bodies. I am 6 feet tall and weigh 235 pounds, and when flexed, my calves are 18 inches around, which is 3-4 inches bigger than the average man's calf, and an inch bigger than the average man's neck.

I bring up this genetic oddity, because it makes me feel a certain kinship with Frank Gore, who has thunder thighs like whoa. He's found out a way to make good professional use of his thighs, because they're what give him such impressive power in traffic. Mine don't really come in too useful as an accounting manager and blogger.

ab. The jury is in as far as I am concerned for San Francisco. The 49ers are on the right track, and ST&NO Favorite Alex Smith has definitely emerged as their long-term QB. They have 2 first-round picks this season, which are both going to be in the 10-15 area. They need a CB and an offensive lineman with those picks, or maybe even two offensive linemen. This team is not far at all from the playoffs, and they're not even going to miss by much this season.

ac. The Cardinals are still legitimate championship contenders, but they got their hind parts kicked Monday night. The result of the game was more a reflection of good play by the Niners than it was of bad play by the Cardinals. The bright spot for Arizona was the excellent Adrian Wilson, who baited Smith into a dumb INT, and was around the ball constantly, the whole game.

4. I couldn't agree more with TJ Johnson's piece about deferring the option yesterday, and a smart analyst got out ahead of me before I wrote about it, which happens once in awhile with a Tuesday slot. I'm always glad to see an in-house MHR guy do it. Big up TJ! If you haven't read his article, you should. So should Don Banks (and Dan Fouts.)

From Banks:

• Did I hear that right, the Broncos won the coin toss to start their game at Indy and deferred to the Colts? And Peyton Manning? Why exactly would you give Manning the chance to get the ball in his hands any more than you absolutely have to? What were you thinking, Josh McDaniels? That's a dubious, rookie-like call for the Broncos new head coach. I do believe McDaniels was guilty of overconfidence in his defense.

My two cents was going to be that each team gets the ball kicked to them to start one half, and there's no way around that fact, so if you consider just this fact, it's utterly meaningless which half a particular team gets their opportunity to receive. TJ goes much further, and finds that there is actually evidence that teams who get the ball to start the second half tend to experience more success. Very interesting stuff.

5. That first-rounder from the Bears is looking really good right now. Chicago fell to 5-8 Sunday, and I like them to finish 6-10. They play at Baltimore and home against Minnesota before finishing at Detroit. For the Broncos' playoff chances, I'd like to see the Bears beat the Ravens, but I doubt it happens. A 6-10 record is probably good for a pick in the neighborhood of 9th or 10th overall. I gave a cursory look at the remaining schedules of every team with a losing record, and this is what I came up with for season-ending records, and way-too-early possible picks.

1. St. Louis 1-15 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma

2. Tampa Bay 1-15 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska

3. Detroit 2-14 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma

4. Kansas City 3-13 Eric Berry S Tennessee

5. Cleveland 4-12 Russell Okung T Oklahoma State

6. Oakland 4-12 Carlos Dunlap DE Florida

7. Buffalo 5-11 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame

8. Washington 5-11 Trent Williams T Oklahoma

9. San Francisco ~~Carolina~~ 5-11 Joe Haden CB Florida

10. Seattle 6-10 Anthony Davis T Rutgers

11. Denver ~~Chicago~~ 6-10

12. San Francisco 7-9

13. Pittsburgh 7-9

14. Houston 8-8

15. Tennessee 8-8

With a 10th or 11th pick, you can get yourself a difference-making defensive player like a Terrence Cody, Rolando McClain, or Brandon Spikes. You could also go outside the box, and draft a guy like C.J. Spiller from Clemson, who projects as a major home-run threat, a la Chris Johnson, at the NFL level. You have to admit, he'd make a nice tandem with Knowshon Moreno. My move, though, might be to try to trade down, and enjoy some of the depth of this Draft. (I say try, because you can't always do it.) I am treading kind of lightly with this line of thinking, because I am a well-known believer that players are better than draft picks. (A player is a real asset, and a draft pick is a derivative asset; when you're needing to operate now, it's better to have a barrel of oil than a contract guaranteeing the delivery of a barrel of oil at a future date and price.)

To me, the Broncos could get back once or twice to #20 or so, and take someone like either Mike or Maurkice Pouncey from Florida, if they elect to enter the draft. (Incidentally, I think Florida is going to lose a bunch of underclassmen.) Both are 6-5 320-pound interior offensive linemen, and would fill what I think is the Broncos' biggest roster need. The overall point, though, is that it's good to be in the position the Broncos are in right now, with this pick coming in higher than their record would earn. For those who were sure the Broncos erred in trading their own pick rather than Chicago's, I'd hope they remember that you don't know how things are going to play out until they play out.

6. Bad news emerged for QB-needy teams yesterday that Washington junior Jake Locker will return for his senior season. It was not altogether unexpected, but I believe that Locker would have been the first QB selected, and maybe the number-1 overall pick. His talent as a thrower and runner is way ahead of the other guys in this class. The guy who benefits is Sam Bradford, because if he checks out healthy, his size and arm are both a bit better than Jimmy Clausen's. I, personally, am not in love with either guy. Bradford looks like a young Matt Hasselbeck to me, while a comparison for Clausen doesn't come to me so easily. Clausen is short, average athletically, looks like he needs to get a lot stronger, and has an average arm. He looks a bit like a young Drew Brees, before Drew worked so hard to become what he became. I am reluctant to make that comparison, but it's the best one I can come up with.

7. Retired for John Elway.

That's all I have for this week. We'll be back next Tuesday with more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Until then, have a fantastic Raiders Week, and Go Broncos!

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Reed Hoffmann - AP

9 days ago: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Brodie Croyle (12) has a pass attempt blocked by Denver Broncos tight end Richard Quinn (81) during a fake punt attempt at the start of the second half of their game, giving the Broncos the ball deep in Chiefs territory in their NFL football game in Kansas City, Mo., Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of ST&NO. After being sick last week, and running an abbreviated version on Wednesday, I am back in full effect this week. I feel kind of like Stringer Bell in season 2 of The Wire, when Avon Barksdale was locked up, and their supplier cut them off. Stringer said he needed to put out a smoker to hold the towers, and I feel like a smoker is similarly needed this week with ST&NO. After all, I can't really do what Stringer actually did, when he couldn't get his raw dope, and change the name. Nobody is going to read a column called Death Grip, you know? (Really, I don't know what kind of drug addict would buy dope called Death Grip, but that's neither here nor there.) Anyway, here comes the high test stuff, with the same name as always. So fill up your coffee, get comfortable, and let's get right to it. Ready.... BEGIN!!!

1. You have to like how the Broncos looked Sunday, even in spite of 3 turnovers by Kyle Orton. They once again beat down a bad team, which is what good teams have to do. They shot a hole in the terribly inane thinking that they couldn't win in Kansas City in December, and they strengthened their hold on the 5th seed in the playoffs. Helping matters, the Steelers and Ravens both lost to fall to 6-6, so their two competitors who beat them head-to-head lost some ground. I fully expect Jacksonville to choke, and I am starting to think that Miami is going to sneak into the 6th spot, actually.

In any case, the Broncos are in a pretty good place right now. Peter King declared them to be toast two weeks ago, done, kaput. On Monday, he called them a psycho team, and ranked them 10th in the Fool 15. I am still feeling good about this Indianapolis game, and I am sure that the Broncos match up pretty well with the Colts. Coverage is the only way to beat them, and the Broncos are back to covering as well as anybody. I fully expect the Broncos to run for 150 yards against the Colts too, if they can keep the score within striking distance.

It's a good Tuesday to be a Broncos fan. Our team is in in the midst of a season which we can only consider to be a success up until this point. They've come together as a team, learned how to win close games against good teams, learned how to blow out bad teams, and figured out their brand new schemes. They've seemingly bought into one of the main Patriots mantras, that Durability is more important than Ability. Everybody is working hard to Do Their Job. This is when it's good to be a fan of a team, and when it's good to be a fan of a team, it's great to be alive.

2. Information From My Eyes - Denver at Kansas City

a. Kyle Orton had a C+ game, but I felt like all three turnovers he committed were a result of him being somewhat greedy. He's supposed to be the guy who checks it down when nothing is there, isn't he? I hope that film provides a good reminder for him to do so.

b. Knowshon Moreno improves every week, and he's really looking decisive lately. You can tell that he has had a big dose of Bobby Turner's foot in his backside this year. For a pick I didn't love when it was made, I have really come to be happy with Knowshon.

c. I was pretty worried during Kansas City's 20 play first quarter drive, because the tackling and gap discipline looked pretty bad. The Broncos sure stiffened by the goal line, though, and they set the tone for the rest of the game's defensive performance.

d. I meant to talk about setting the edge last week, but I forgot to. My brother Chris felt that Matt Millen made too much of the concept during the Broncos-Giants game, but I disagree, because it's all-important to the way the Broncos run the ball, and the way they defend against the run. The Broncos have been fanstastic in their own running game with setting the edge the past two games, led by Daniel Graham. He is getting out and winning his battles outside, and giving the runners a sealed edge to run inside of. Many of Correll Buckhalter's big runs on Sunday came just inside of Graham.

On defense, the idea is the same, but the defender wants to push the edge man back into the inside, and close off the outside lane. Mario Haggan has been doing this as well as any LB in the NFL this season. He has really found his niche as a physical, upfield run player. Ryan McBean makes a lot of plays in this way, as well.

Winning the physical battles at the edge is the key to everything for the Broncos, and they lost those battles during the losing streak. Since they've gotten back to winning, it's been no accident that they're winning at the edge on both sides of the ball.

e. The kick return where Eddie Royal faked a reverse to Brandon Marshall was interesting. I expect to see them actually hand that off one of these weeks.

f. Alphonso Smith needs to knock off the sucker penalties.

g. Spencer Larsen is an appreciably better blocker than Peyton Hillis. He just thumps guys, and it goes well with the work that Graham and Richard Quinn are doing at TE.

h. Tony Scheffler had a huge 3^rd down drop in 2^nd Quarter, and it was exactly the kind of play that has prevented the Broncos from being an elite offense. You have to make plays when they are available to be made. At least Scheffler blasted the return man on the ensuing punt.

i. Tamba Hali is a good fit for the 3-4, as I have been saying since the preseason. He's aggressive, quick, strong, and as a lifelong down DE, he has very good technique. The first sack he got on Ryan Clady was all technique. The Broncos did take advantage of Hali's aggressiveness on both TD passes, though, and also on the 49 yard bubble screen that Brandon Marshall had.

j. I saw where somebody said we should thank Phildelphia for Brian Dawkins and Correll Buckhalter. Miami is due a thank you card for Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill, as well. If Goodman were just a little better tackler, I'd be even happier, but everybody should have noticed by now that the ball just seems to find its way into his hands.

k. Matt Prater has developed into one of the best kickers in the NFL. It's time we all realize that, and appreciate his work.

l. My biggest problem with Mitch Berger is that he takes too long to get the ball off. He had yet another seeing-eye punt on Sunday, which inexplicably missed a dead-to-rights block. Upgrading the punter position has to be a huge priority in the offseason.

m. It was great to see Peyton Hillis running the ball again, and he reminded the world that he can do some damage with it. Hopefully, the performance will get him some snaps on offense, because he clearly has something to contribute.

n. I really like Darcel McBath as a matchup safety. He is always around the ball when he is on the field, and I think his pick was a triumph of player evaluation. Draftniks considered him a reach, but he was hard to spot on some abysmal Texas Tech defensive units. He clearly has the goods, though; it jumps off the screen at you.

3. Information From My Eyes - Other games

a. I watched most of the San Francisco-Seattle game, and you know that means I will have some Alex Smith thoughts. He played great on Sunday, and did everything the team needed from him to win, short of missing one open receiver on a deep out in the 4^th quarter. It was the first 300 yard passing game of his career, and it should have been a lot more. His teammates dropped at least 9 passes in the game, including 3 TDs, by Delanie Walker, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree.

b. Speaking of Smith, I meant to clear up an uttlerly stupid comment made by the always-brilliant Solomon Wilcots during last week's game. The head cold I was feeling made me forget to mention it, I guess. Wilcots noticed that the 49ers were (smartly) using Smith in the shotgun very frequently, and he said (I'm paraphrasing) that Smith was very comfortable, because he had used the exact same offense throughout college.

That's very interesting, Saruman, except, he didn't. This gets to my constant annoyance about the term "Spread Offense." There is no one monolithic spread offense. There are college teams which do some similar things formationally, with a lot of WRs, and many plays with the QB taking snaps from the shotgun, but the actual plays vary greatly. The 49ers aren't doing anything that is much like the Urban Meyer offense he played in at Utah. There are no option plays, and no shovel passes. The pass routes are actually tending to be much more horizontal and timed than the stuff he did in college.

A bunch of WRs and a shotgun setup does not mean you're playing a "spread offense," and saying that you're playing a "spread offense" doesn't mean the same thing from one place to the next. Smith is most comfortable in his footwork and reads from the shotgun, and he has time to get the ball out before he gets crushed behind the Niners terrible O-line. Smith has been sacked only once in the last 2 games. My only concern is that they've abandoned the run too much, and need to stick to it much more.

c. I remember thinking that Seattle looked pretty good against the Broncos in the preseason, but as I watched the game today, I was thinking that I really don't like the way their team is constructed. They have 3 terribly overpaid guys at WR (Deion Branch, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Nate Burleson), and not much talent at RB or on the offensive line. The only players I really like at all on their defense are Brandon Mebane and Aaron Curry. They have a lot of money invested in Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill at LB, but I think both guys are just solid players (Tatupu is currently hurt, obviously.) I think they ought to go to a 3-4, if they can get a good NT in the offseason. (A few should be available.) The guy they have, Colin Cole, is more of a backup caliber guy. They could stand up Patrick Kerney, and use Curry in a blitzing role, which he is best suited for. Of course, their secondary will still be lousy, unless they address it.

d. Chad Henne looked really good on Sunday. I had the Miami-New England game on the smaller TV, during the Broncos game, and just about every time I looked over, he was making a play for his team. If he keeps it up, he'll be able to easily afford tattoo removal before too long.

e. ST&NO favorite Sean Smith had an interesting game on Sunday. He gave up an 81 yard TD to Sam Aiken on a play where he had perfect bump and run coverage but didn't find the ball in the air, and fell down trying. Later, he got beaten by Aiken on a double move, and Tom Brady overthrew him by about a foot. He got beat on a perfectly covered play, and got lucky on a busted coverage play. Such is the nature of being a CB playing a lot of man-to-man. By the way, Smith continues to look like he'll have a long career as one of the best man coverage players in the NFL.

f. I really liked what the Giants did on defense Sunday against Dallas, and I picked them based upon some moves I heard about during the week. For one thing, they moved a good CB, Aaron Ross, to FS, and benched the abysmal C.C. Brown. For another, they took a big-name guy, Osi Umenyiora, out of the starting lineup, and replaced him with Mathias Kiwanuka. Osi struggles against the run, and the Broncos continually ran at him on Thanksgiving night. The Giants correctly identified their top priority as containing the Dallas running game, and made the move to the stouter Kiwanuka.

The effect was that both guys played really well. Umenyiora was actually used quite a bit in coverage, and he did pretty well. He's really a lean, athletic guy, and he did well in that role. He also recovered a key fumble, and returned it for a bunch of yards. The Giants held the Cowboys to 45 yards rushing on 23 carries, and it's the primary reason they won the game.

g. Don't give too much credence to this "Tony Romo/Wade Phillips can't win in December" stuff. Romo, particularly, played pretty well Sunday, and the loss wasn't on him. It was on a few defensive breakdowns which led to big plays, and the aforementioned lack of an effective running game.

Remember the one about correlation not necessarily reflecting causality? There is a real danger to putting too much stock in facts which Peter King insists on incorrectly referring to as factoids. The December record for the Cowboys the past few years is a case in point. It doesn't necessarily foretell what will happen this year, and even if the Cowboys lose a bunch of games this month, it may have nothing to do with the month. Remember, a football game is an independent event, which is comprised of many individual independent events. What happened in the past is meaningless.

h. Another example of this foolishness with meaningless statistics, while we're at it, was any credence being put into the fact that the Broncos were 1-16 all-time in Kansas City, during the month of December. Where to begin with this?

Well, in the most obvious place, of considering the significance of recency. If no players or coaches (or even owners) remain from the time when a game was played, that game has no meaning. A game in 1972 was played between the Chiefs and the Broncos, but not THESE Chiefs and Broncos. A rational person realizes that that game may as well have been between any two teams.

Another idea I had about this, that I wanted to share, harkens back to my days as a Finance major at THE Cleveland State University. There was a required class, Financial Markets and Institutions, which was really a BS class. It was taught by a really overweight, smelly, tenured professor who breathed really heavily, and the dude didn't ever teach anything, ever.

The class met in a computer lab, and consisted of 4 group analysis projects. We were given a bunch of parameters of a hypothetical economic environment, and we had to choose the 3-year period of the last 30 years, which was most predictive of the behavior of whatever financial instrument we were analyzing. We then used data from that 3 year period to analyze and project the performance of that instrument, and built a 6 slide PowerPoint discussing quantitative and qualitative reasons for our analysis. That was a 4 credit class.

Anyway, I was thinking that a reasonable thing to do might be to look into whether there was ever a time in semi-recent history where the two teams profiled like these two do, AND they played a game at Arrowhead in December. I didn't find any instances where the Broncos were a playoff caliber team, the Chiefs were a complete doormat, and the schedule played out this way. You could say I was not surprised at all by Sunday's result.

i. Chris Johnson is very dangerous, but I am not one of these people who is jumping up to call him the best RB in the NFL. For one thing, I think he makes the Titans a finesse running team. They do a ton of zone blocking for him, and he runs to the edges all the time, but without the kind of one-cut decisiveness that Broncos runners have always been coached into employing. Really, Johnson is a bit over-patient, in my opinion, and it's his exceptional burst and speed that let him mostly get away with it. I also continue to have my doubts about Johnson's ability to handle the heavy workload he gets, over a number of years. The Titans would be smart to get a legitimate second guy to take one third of the carries, because they apparently don't think LenDale White is that guy.

j. The Titans blew one on Sunday, and the way they did makes me feel even better about the Broncos' prospects for winning in Indianapolis next week. At halftime, the Titans had 2 more yards, and 6 more minutes of time of possession than the Colts, and Indianapolis led 24-10. The Titans also had 2 turnovers. Nate Washington dropped a perfect deep ball. There were plays available to be made, and the Titans failed to make them.

k. I watched the Steelers debacle against the Raiders, and all I can pin their problems on is missing Troy Polamalu. I think their defensive play-calling is less aggressive without Polamalu, and they're letting QBs have more time to throw the ball than the Steelers are known for doing. Bruce Gradkowski had some real good chances to get the ball downfield at times. It just gets back to the concept of a defense needing all its parts to be effective.

l. This stuff about Gradkowski being the answer for the Raiders is silly. He's a solid backup, and a try-hard guy, but he's not a starter for a winning football team. He lacks accuracy and arm strength, isn't particularly mobile, and just looks kind of underwhelming when you watch him.

m. Everybody knows I am generally not the biggest D.J. Williams lover, and I am going to reveal a closely held secret today, since I wanted to make this a smoker. My main problem with D.J. always has been that he isn't Steven Jackson. Back in 2004, I was fired up for the Broncos to draft Jackson, and a lot of Mel Kipers thought they would. They had just traded Clinton Portis, and I wanted a new RB.

When the Broncos took D.J., I was mad, my brother Chris will tell you. No matter what he ever does, I may not get over it. Anyway, I believe that Jackson is having the best season of any RB in the NFL this season, if you consider his circumstances. He has no QB, no line, not much at WR, and he continues to produce at a very high level. He's still only 26 years old, and he continues to be a great player.

n. Cedric Benson was back to his workhorse ways this week, and Larry Johnson was back to sitting on the bench. I continue to be impressed with the run blocking of Bengals LT Andrew Whitworth. He was a star at LSU, and was believed to be more of a guard, which is why he went in the second round. He has been blowing guys off the ball, though, as a LT. He's been similar to Jake Long, but better this season.

o. Matthew Stafford is clearly a tremendously tough kid, because he's been getting killed every week for the Lions, and he keeps coming back. He has a ways to go from a decision-making perspective, but he has to have the respect of his teammates, and you can't minimize the importance of that to a QB.

p. A lot has been made of the Michael Vick sighting in Atlanta, but the truth of the story is that he played a lot of garbage snaps in a blowout. The best thing you can say about him is that he showed he still has good run skills, and decent throwing skills. He completed both of his throws, but the long ball was kind of a duck thrown into a crowd, where Reggie Brown made a play on the ball. I do think he's going to get a look in a place like Carolina, which has no prospect of drafting a QB early.

q. Some pundit in the ESPN-o-sphere was recently trying to hypopulate that the Falcons were better off with Chris Redman at QB than Matt Ryan. As much of a non-fan of Ryan as I am, that's stupid. There's a good reason Redman was out of the league for more than 3 years, and that it took nepotism from his college coach, Bobby Petrino, to bring him back. He's been solid in some of his appearances, but there's no team in the NFL right now, for whom he is an upgrade over their starter.

r. If you remember back to the 2008 Draft, no WR was selected in the first round, and the first one chosen was Donnie Avery by the Rams. All the draftniks called Devin Thomas the best prospect, and had him going in the first round, and he eventually went one pick after Avery, 34^th.

He's playing fantastic football lately, and his rise really kind of started in the Denver game. Thomas is showing the qualities of a number 1 WR, and whoever his coach is next year, he is really going to benefit from it. Having a big, physical outside player like Thomas opens up the field for a guy like Santana Moss. Washington's recent offensive improvement has a lot to do with the light bulb going on for Thomas.

s. Percy Harvin didn't actually play RB at the University of Florida, and as a UF alum, Cris Collinsworth should know that. Collinsworth was trying to say that Harvin never ran any routes in college, and that couldn't be further from the truth. He didn't exactly run a full tree, but he ran many crossing routes, slants, and go routes. He has incredible run skills for an outside player, but he's a natural WR, make no mistake about it.

t. I hadn't gotten a look at Kurt Warner's wife in awhile, and she seems to have really upgraded her hair-sylist over the years. Back when Kurt won a Super Bowl, she looked like the kind of mom I would see wearing mom jeans, dragging around a bunch of kids at Wal-Mart, if I shopped at Wal-Mart. It's okay to wear mom jeans and shop at Wal-Mart, lest I offend anybody who does, but it's different for the MVP's wife.

u. Do these Gap ads with dancing beautiful people doing cheerleader cadences and wearing plaid make anybody want to go buy plaid clothing? I am interested in marketing and advertising, so if you're a ST&NO reader who finds those ads effective, I'd appreciate you saying so in the comments. My hypothesis is that they don't work well for anybody who reads this column.

v. My other holiday season advertising analysis is as follows: I think the Best Buy caroling store clerks suck, but at least people who watch football tend to buy stuff at Best Buy. I bet they're trying to snag a wife or two with those ads. The Open Hearts collection at Kay Jewelers is of very little interest to the average male football fan, who tends not to care about Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman's mommy's trite advice. Kay ought to stick to their ads which say, "Your wife will give you some incremental action for a couple weeks, if you buy her a diamond. The bigger th diamond, the more action." It communicates the needed psychological message to men better. I do like the Go Forth Levi's ads, and I think they're very effective, vis-à-vis the football watching audience whom they're aired for.

w. The Cardinals are for real, again, and the main reason they are is that they have legitimate stars at every level of their defense. Darnell Dockett has been a star, and Calais Campbell is turning into one at DE. Karlos Dansby is terrific at LB, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Adrian Wilson are both big-time players too. The underrated guy who I like is Antrel Rolle. He was kind of a bust as a first round CB, but he's terrific as a matchup safety. He's very smart, and can match up man-to-man with inside WRs or TEs. He also has excellent ball skills. The Cardinals could beat any team in the NFL on a day where both their offense and defense are clicking, because their personnel is definitely good enough on both sides of the ball.

x. Watching the Packers version of the 3-4 Monday night, I was struck by the difference between what they're doing, and what the Broncos do. Denver's scheme is much more similar to what the Cardinals, Ravens, and Jets are doing, where the pass rush is fairly conservative, and setting the edge and keeping contain responsibilities is often the main concern. If you watch what the outside rushers do for the Broncos a lot of times, they're not coming full-steam at the QB. Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers, and Darrell Reid are often asked to do more wrestling with O-Linemen than they are asked to run around people.

The Packers play more like the Steelers, where they're speed rushing off the edge. The point I am getting to is that Clay Matthews is a great fit for what the Packers are asking him to do, where Ayers is more of a fit for the Broncos scheme, despite his lack of sacks. Ayers has just missed a lot of sacks, and with better technique, he'll get there. He's doing a lot more than running around people, though.

y. Jermichael Finley is enormously talented, and is really starting to come into his own for the Packers. You can see that Aaron Rodgers is really developing a lot of trust in him.

z. The Packers are really protecting Rodgers a lot better than they were in the early part of the season. I've been very critical of Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher both over the past two years, but they've been an upgrade over the bums they replaced. Tauscher even caught his first NFL pass on Monday night, off a deflection.

aa. Rodgers is really starting to remind me of Rich Gannon in his Raiders years. He's so calm, and he goes to the right place with the ball all the time, with accuracy. He's playing as well as any QB in the NFL this season if you consider what he is doing independently.

ab. Lardarius Webb is so dangerous returning kickoffs. The Ravens, again, found a gem in the Draft

ac. Everybody knows I am a Joe Flacco fan, but he needs to remember never to throw the ball late down the middle. The officials tried to give the Ravens the game with all those late pass interference penalties and Flacco blew the game with his late interceptions.

4. Most regulars know that I am a Florida Gators fan, so I was pretty disappointed in the result of the SEC Championship game. Alabama deserved to win, because they made every play that was available for them to make. Florida made plays with very few of their opportunities, and that's what happens.

Anyway, nobody can deny that that game was a bonanza of future NFL players. I wanted to share some thoughts on about 10 guys who I think could go in the first 2 rounds in April, from the two schools.

a. Carlos Dunlap DE Florida Top 5

Mel Kiper downgraded Dunlap to 14^th on his Big Board after his DUI, but that's not going to mean anything when he compares favorably to Mario Williams in testing and measurements. His college film is better too, and he can play in any type of front. He and Ndamukong Suh will be the first two defensive players drafted.

b. Joe Haden CB Florida Top 10

Haden is by far the best CB in the nation. His play was a lonely bright spot for Florida, as he shut down the extremely talented Julio Jones. Haden is fast, fluid, smart, strong, and he has excellent ball skills. He compares as a prospect to Darrelle Revis.

c. Terrence Cody NT Alabama Top 20

He's not fat anymore, and he's covering a lot more space laterally than he did a year ago. His athleticism really flashes for such a huge man, and his strength is terrific. He punked Florida into not even trying to run their dive series. I'm a big fan of this guy.

d. Brandon Spikes ILB Florida Top 20

Spikes is not an elite athlete, but he's an elite player. He's downhill all the time in the running game, and he strikes guys as hard as any college player you'll ever see. He's also as naturally gifted and instinctive in pass coverage as Ray Lewis, and he's a similar type of emotional leader. What intrigues me most at the NFL level with Spikes is his natural pass-rushing skills. He really can get after a QB. He'll only run a 4.65 or 4.7, but he'll be an every down player, and make a bunch of Pro Bowls, trust me.

e. Rolando McClain ILB Alabama Top 20

McClain is big, fast, and smart. He's a bit less of a playmaker than Spikes, and more of a cerebral guy than an emotional one. He'll be a very good 3-4 ILB for many years in the NFL.

f. Tim Tebow QB Florida Top 25

Scouts don't like him that much, but coaches love him. Mike Shanahan, Tony Dungy, and Bill Belichick are all on record as thinking he'll be a big-time QB in the NFL. I am pretty sure the Jaguars are going to take him in the first round if he's on the board. Even Florida Governor Charlie Crist (an FSU guy, actually) was in the media Monday calling for it to happen. There is no doubt in my mind that he can play at the NFL level, despite his divergence from norms. He's the second coming of Donovan McNabb to me.

g. Aaron Hernandez TE Florida First Round

Hernandez is a junior, and he's not a huge or great in-line blocker. He's a tremendously gifted receiver though, as good as any who has been draft-eligible in many years. He is extremely dangerous after the catch, which is rare for a guy his size (6-2, 250.)

h. Javier Arenas CB Alabama Second Round

I really like Arenas as a CB, but I love him as a return man. I think he projects as a solid #2 CB, and a Pro Bowl caliber special teams player. His short, stout build works against him as a CB, but for him as a ball carrier.

i. Riley Cooper WR Florida Second Round

Who? He's the tall white guy who has been wearing #11 the past two years. (He wore #86 the first two, when he was primarily a special teamer.) He's been called the fastest Gator in a 60 yard dash, and as Gary Danielson noted on Saturday, nobody seems to be able to cover him, especially when they try to press him. Cooper had his way with Arenas several times, and he dominated Patrick Robinson from Florida State the week before. He's 6-3, 215 pounds, and very strong, which he puts to use in beating press coverage, and he's a dominant blocker outside. He projects as an outside-the-numbers deep threat type, and special teams ace, and when he runs a 4.35 at the combine, he's going to shoot up boards. The only question is if he'd rather play baseball instead (he's part of the Rangers minor league system already.) I think his future is brighter in football.

j. Jermaine Cunningham DE-OLB Florida Second Round

Cunningham projects as a starter at the NFL level, probably as an OLB in a 30 front. He plays much bigger than his size, and takes on blocks well. He kind of reminds me of Mario Haggan, actually.

k. Mike Johnson G Alabama Second Round

This is the type of guy I'd like to see the Broncos take in the second round. He is a strong and experienced drive blocker.

You can add in a few more Gators too, who seem less likely to declare at this moment, if they do. The Pouncey twins, Mike and Maurkice, project as late first or second round picks as interior offensive linemen, and S Major Wright looks like a second rounder to me.

5. I meant to mention this last week too, and I wanted to make the point. Matt Millen was a terrible general manager, but he is an outstanding in-game color analyst. There is nobody on TV who adds more value to a fan's understanding of what is going on than Millen does.

During the Broncos-Giants game, he pointed out how Kyle Orton was calling out the Mike. The average fan doesn't know what a Mike is, so Millen mentioned that it generally means Middle Linebacker. He also went on to mention that the reason Orton is calling out a Mike is to communicate to the protection that that player is the fifth player to account for. A lot of times it was a defensive back, but Orton was communicating who he thought was the most likely fifth rusher.

After the Monday night game, he was talking about how the Packers have shored up their protection, particularly against the double A-gap blitzing that Baltimore loves to do. It's a little bit hard to separate the man from his art, but you have to. He's outstanding on TV, and should be listened to.

My friend Tony from Norwich sent me this link last week, where the Sporting News rated the best sportscasters. I found it interesting, so I thought I'd share it, since it's germane to this rant. I think they have some total losers on their list, primarily Al Michaels, Verne Lundquist, Dan Fouts, and Mike Patrick. Lundquist is the worst play-by-play man ever, if you ask me.

Just prior to the start of the SEC Championship Debacle, Verne was getting down to business. Paraphrasing, he said, "I don't know what Alabama is doing, but Javier Arenas isn't on the field to return this kick." As number 28 warmed up on the TV screen, waiting for the kick to arrive. I threw my Gator hat across the room, and Tweeted:

He misidentifies players constantly, and gets a lot of rules-related topics wrong too. Gary Danielson is excellent, but Verne is a 9,000 ton anchor dragging him down.

6. I got a reader email which forced to be a little introspective last week, and I need to address something real quick, as a result of it. The reader didn't sign the message, but the crux of it was that he/she felt like I am really full of myself, and that that was "repugnant." (Repugnant was his/her actual word.)

I didn't thnk I would ever need to do this, but I am going to explain the central concept of ST&NO, so there's clarity among us all. The premise of this feature, for which I am sure I have written well over 100,000 words during the past year, is that insightful analysis can be, and should be, combined with humor, personality, and entertaining writing. Every week, that's what I try to bring to the table, and I work hard to make this a coherent, continuous, unified narrative, which everybody can feel like they're part of.

Now, I am definitely not known for false humility. What good does it do to pretend to lack self-awareness, for the comfort of insecure people? I know my work is very good, and if I didn't think it was, I think I'd be an A-clown to spend so much time on it. Everybody who does this has some ego about their work, believe me.

Believe it or not, watching 6 games on a Monday night, and then writing for 6 hours after that, after working all day, can get pretty boring and tiresome. It is work, just like what I do in my office all day. I choose to do this work because you, my readers, reaffirm that you want to read it every week. It's not worth the effort to just do it for myself.

Now, understand that I'm not going to change anything, really. Not being Joe Milquetoast is frankly a subtle part of the humor of ST&NO, and it's a true picture of who I am as a person. I'm not at all meek, and I'm not looking to inherit the Earth, or any other damn thing. I'm here to work hard and personally earn what I get. When I say I am a high-talent, high-work ethic accountant, it's because that is a demonstrable fact. You'll recall that I said it as part of a larger point about football and the media environment. I have thought all week about whether I am inappropriately arrogant, and I really think that the answer is no. I think I land in a reasonable place, really, given the givens. So, I am going to keep writing, I am going to keep doing work that I am proud of, and I am going to do it to add value for you, and for future readers who aren't even aware of ST&NO yet. I humbly thank you all for being my readers and commenters, and that was the type of humility that I do value; the genuine kind.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. Okay, I need to end on a good note, and I am going to bed at 1 AM Cleveland time, on Tuesday morning, so I can think and dream on what that note should be. I'll be back in 5 1/2 hours to finish up, hopefully with a great idea. Ready..... STOP

Okay, I am back. Ready.... BEGIN!!! My alarm wakes me up to the local low-brow morning radio show, Rover's Morning Glory. Through my adventures with the snooze bar, I got to hear a lot of stilted Tiger Woods chatter, because apparently, his wife split, and he had some other blond woman over who left in an ambulance this morning.

He's being an idiot, from the sound of things. I don't know who is advising him; maybe T.O.'s publicist who said he had 25 million reasons to live? Tiger ought to just fess up for everything, like David Letterman. When you're in the mud, you might as well just get everything out there voluntarily, because there's no more incremental damage he could take. If you're Wee-Bey, and you're already going to prison for life for six murders, you might trade copping to a few more for a sandwich. The number ceases to matter, as long as it all comes out now.

Tiger's reputation is fried in this moment, so he might as well say, look, yes, I was out fooling around with a lot of other women. I am not even sure how many, but it was more than several. This is a flaw in my character which I am working hard to overcome. Elin and I appreciate you giving us the benefit of some privacy, as we work through a very hard time in each of our lives. (Then, you quit having women over for awhile, and even if you don't, you make sure none of them leave your house in an ambulance.)

By not deflating the story with an "it was a lot / I have a problem" blanket statement, Tiger is letting each new revelation, by each self-serving former mistress, hurt him individually. Duji, the radio chick, was saying there are 10 who have now been identified. That's really not that many, if you're just a regular guy who is serious about philandering. A very average man could do that in a couple months, pretty easily. If you're Tiger Woods, you could have 10 in about 3 days.

Remember the haters? Well, a lot of people love to hate Tiger. He's there with Roger Federer, Derek Jeter, Tom Brady, and Jeff Gordon in that way, as guys who are so talented, and so polished that relatively untalented and unpolished people are apt to hate them. (Gordon ought to have a Gillette commercial, too. I bet they figure people who like Gordon already use good shaving equipment.) It's really an ugly trait, to root for the failure of the most talented people, but a lot of people do it. Let's drag everybody down to our own level.

Tiger needs to go on Oprah or Letterman (probably Letterman is better, given the circumstances.) If he gets all the way clean, and then disappears off the public radar for a few months, this can be stopped pretty effectively. The TMZ's and their ilk will still try to keep it going, but it will fade pretty quickly when there is no new news. Letterman already isn't being actively cast as a philanderer. Tiger can come back in the spring, with a pre-packaged narrative about how these trying times have caused him to re-invest himself in his golf game, win a few tournaments (people will perceive him to have slipped, even though he was recently playing fine), and turn this into a redemption story. Americans love redemption stories, after all.

That's all I have for this week, friends. Have a great one, and as always, tell me what you think in the comments. ST&NO may be ending for now, but the discussion is just beginning.

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 14:03:21 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

19 days ago: Denver Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno (27) has his hand examined during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the New York Giants in Denver, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009. Denver won 26-6. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

Browse more photos »

Happy Wednesday, and welcome to a day-late, dollar-short version of ST&NO. First of all, big up TJ for working hard to bring in his outstanding The Dude Abides... Stats That Don't Lie in a day early. I am a bit healthier on Tuesday as I write this, and I am going to see what I can get cranked out in one day, with moderate sneezing, and a heavy Day 1 of close workload in that pesky day job. I didn't take notes, and I didn't remember to record the Broncos game, so I am without a lot of detail this week, and will need to speak more generally than usual. No time to waste, so let's not waste any time. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. So I mentioned that I would be in the Constitution State, and that I'd be playing in a football game with my friend Tony, a diehard Giants fan. The morning game was fun, but I ended up pretty sore, for those who asked. It's tough playing once a year at the most.

As for the night game, well, my mom is not what you'd call a high-tech person. Every time I visit, without fail, there's some junk Coby brand DVD player she wants me to plug into some junk/old TV set without RCA inputs. (You have to drop like $40 on an RF modulator to run through coax, which is about 2.5 times the price of the DVD player.) The "how" of plugging in a DVD player is too daunting for my mom to even give it a try for herself. In her main TV-watching area, she has a 21ish-inch Symphonic brand LCD flat screen that I am sure came from Wal-Mart. Her equipment is garbage, but it works for her I guess. Law & Order SVU looks fine on it. (I don't mean to make fun of my mother; she just doesn't share my priorities, or general attitude toward spending a few extra bucks for quality gear.) It turned out to be moot anyway, because NFL Network is on a premium tier she doesn't subscribe to.

So, what to do? Well, Tony was still around. I asked if he wanted to go to a bar for the game, but he ended up inviting me to his parents' house to watch, which was cool. His dad, also Tony, is also a big Giants fan. I usually watch football alone, because I don't consider it to be a social activity. It's really kind of become my job, and I do best when I can take notes, and pause and rewind, and focus on being analytical. I will talk to my brother Chris sometimes during games, but that's annoying, because my DirecTV feed is always 2-3 seconds behind his, so he knows what happened before I do.

Last Thursday, I sat in the living room with Tony and Tony. Tony Version 2.0's mother, and his girlfriend Ana, were there for most of the first half. I like them both very much, but having women around for a Broncos game was a whole other level of different for me. Like, I don't think it has happened since I was married, and that ended Halloween 2007.

But I digest. (I just had a sandwich from Tomayydo Tomahhdo for lunch. It was excellent, as always.) Back to the lecture at hand. I'm watching this game with two Giants fans and their women, and I got it in my mind that I was going to be really respectful of the Giants one way or the other. It turned out I had to do so in the one way, and not the other, which made me happy. For me, it's easier to be gracious in victory than in defeat.

The Broncos dominated the Giants, and in my opinion, played their best all-around game of the season. Kyle Orton threw one bad ball that he'd like to have back. The Giants got one receiver wide open on a well-conceived rub play where Alphonso Smith and Andre' Goodman ran into each other. The line had those 3 stupid scoring-area false starts, and gave up one sack, on the opening play of the game, and it came from the free rusher on a blitz (which puts it on coverage and Orton). Other than those few plays, and a sense that Correll Buckhalter went down a little too easily a couple of times, I wouldn't change much of anything.

McGeorge asked after the San Diego game if I still stood by my 11-5 prediction. I wanted to see how the Broncos did against New York, but after that, I sure do. The Giants game showed the exact formula that the Broncos can use to beat just about anybody. On defense, it was coverage, pressure, and gap control. On offense, it was sharp routes, great catches and good throws, combined with hard running and excellent run blocking. If the Broncos play like that, they will crush the Raiders and Chiefs, and end up with a minimum of 10 wins. They match up pretty well with both the Colts and the Eagles, too, and I think they can win 1 out of those 2 games. Here is my rationale for saying they match up well.

Indianapolis - The Colts are not a complete team, but nobody really is in the salary cap era. What the Colts are is a team which is constructed around the idea that their QB is going to give them leads, and that their defense will therefore need to protect leads. What does that mean? Well, they value zone coverage and pressure from their DEs. If you make them defend both the pass and the run on any given snap, you can score on them without a lot of trouble. Because the Colts can't stop even an average running game with 7 men, their SS Melvin Bullitt runs down into the box very frequently, and the Colts are therefore susceptible to being beaten over the top on play action, if you can run against them. It was no accident how the Texans got out to a big lead Sunday. They ran and threw, and had the Colts defense off balance early. The Colts rookie CBs couldn't handle Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, and I'm here to tell you, they have nothing for Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal either. The Texans can't handle Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, and the Broncos can, assuming Ryan Harris is fully back by then. The Broncos can block the Colts DEs, beat their CBs, and move their front seven in the running game.

Remember this point. Just because the Colts are 3^rd in scoring defense (just behind Cincinnati and Dallas, and just ahead of Denver) doesn't mean they have a good defense. They really don't. They have a defense which is equipped to take care of leads by making teams gain yards in smallish chunks, and by sacking QBs with edge pressure. That, combined with Peyton Manning's constant use of the whole play clock leads to low-scoring days by opposing offenses

The trick, of course, is defending the Colts, and that's where the Broncos have historically struggled. This Broncos team, however, is better equipped than any in recent memory to have some success. The Colts do best when they can run the ball, and I like the Broncos' chances to stop their running game with 7 ½ men (meaning Brian Dawkins is starting in a cover-2 shell, but keying run first). By stopping the Colts run, you take away their play action stuff, which makes Peyton Manning beat you with perfect throws, and his receivers beat you with perfect routes. Which, of course, they can do, but it's a harder go than the other way. I like the secondary matchups pretty well for the Broncos, from Champ Bailey against Reggie Wayne, Andre' Goodman against Pierre Garcon, Ty Law or Alphonso Smith against Austin Collie, and either Law or Josh Barrett against Dallas Clark. The Clark matchup is key against the Colts, and I like Law and Barrett, depending on down and distance, better than anybody else's sub-package guys in the NFL for covering a big-time TE.

I'm not saying the game will be a runaway Broncos win, just that I can easily make a case for them TO win, and that I think they CAN win. What do you think?

Philadelphia - This is a game the Broncos SHOULD win. The Eagles are a lot like the Giants, from both schematic and personnel perspectives. From the angle of attacking Philly's defense, you can outside zone them to death, like the Broncos did so well against the Giants. That's because their LBs tend to be bigger, slower guys who struggle a bit to cover the lateral width of the field. Will Witherspoon is an exception to that archetype, but Chris Gocong, Joe Mays, and Moise Fokou are vertical players.

You have to block the Eagles' blitz packages, and it really helps to stay on schedule against them. That's a bit easier than it is against a Baltimore or Pittsburgh, because you can run the ball. (They're currently ranked 8^th against the run, but trust me, you can gash them if you try a little.) In the passing game, you'd like to exploit Asante Samuel, who bites on a ton of double moves. Yes, he's a ball-hawk, but he doesn't shut anybody down. He can catch extremely well, and he's an excellent tackler, but he's just an okay coverage player. Sheldon Brown is kind of the opposite; better in coverage, but lesser as a ball-hawk and tackler. Where you can kill the Eagles is from the slot, and with TEs, especially if you block their blitz packages.

Offensively, the Eagles are a big-play offense, and the Broncos have been as good as anybody in the NFL at limiting big plays. Brent Celek got paid Tuesday, and he deserved it. He's a very good receiving TE. The Eagles don't have a big, physical #1 type WR, but they have two speedsters outside with DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. The guy I think is dangerous is Jason Avant, who is much stronger and more physical than the average slot receiver, and he's a tough matchup for the average thin/quick nickel CB. Of course, Alphonso Smith and Ty Law are both thicker/stronger players, so it's less of an issue. I don't fear the Eagles running game, because if you stop it early, they quit going to it.

This game can go either way, obviously, but the Broncos are well-equipped to get a good road win in Philadelphia. I feel pretty good about both games, actually. So, yeah. I still like the 11-5 prediction.

2. Information From My Eyes - Other Games:

a. Richard Seymour is still playing at a high level in Oakland, despite his fairly modest statistics this season. I watched him defeat the left side of the Cowboys offensive line several times on Thanksgiving Day. Seymour's contract is up after this season, and you have to think he'd rather not re-up with the Raiders. Of course, given the price Al Davis paid, he probably gets franchised. If he somehow isn't, I'd sure like to see him in Denver. Forget all this nonsense about building exclusively through the draft; as we've all hopefully realized this season, a team should take any approach available to it, in order to acquire the most good players possible.

b. Anthony Spencer had the best game I have ever seen him have for the Cowboys. Some Dallas fans took exception with my calling Spencer "just a guy" in Week 3, and if he keeps playing like he did last Thursday, I'll have to rethink my evaluation.

c. I have been a fan of the Cowboys' passing scheme for several years now, going back to the end of the Parcells regime. In 2007, when I started to make it my business to watch teams other than the Broncos closely, Jason Garrett was the young, hot name as the Offensive Coordinator, and Jerry Jones paid him a lot of money not to leave for jobs in Baltimore and Atlanta after the 2007 season.

When Tony Sparano left to become the Dolphins Head Coach last season, it came to light that Garrett hadn't been the primary playcaller in 2007, and that he'd be doing it for the first time in 2008 with Sparano's departure. The Cowboys took a noticeable step back last season, and some of the bloom came off the Garrett rose, even as he interviewed for Head Coaching jobs with the Broncos, Lions, and Rams, and seemed to initially be the favorite for the Rams job. There was speculation that Jones would love to be out from under Garrett's $3-million contract.

Well, the point of the history lesson is that the scheme and execution look much better in Dallas lately than they have since Sparano left. I don't know if this makes Garrett a Head Coach, but it makes him a guy who appears to have grown into his job. The Cowboys' passing scheme is very vertical, and it does a good job of getting the ball in the hands of its playmakers. Some will say they don't get Roy Williams involved enough, but those people believe more in Williams than I do. I think he is what he looks like; a lazy player, who has below average hands, lacks quickness out of his breaks, and rounds off his routes. If there's no salary cap for the Cowboys to take a prorated hit against, I guarantee that he gets released in the offseason, and has to beg for a 1 year, $1-million contract to compete for a backup role somewhere.

d. Charles Woodson is playing the best football of his career right now, which I have mentioned several times this season. He had a big stat game Thursday on national TV, and now everybody is on the bandwagon with me. I actually thought it may have only been the 3rd- or 4th-best game I have seen him play this season. To me, he's the no-question Defensive Player of the Year so far.

e. The Packers defense has really gotten their act together lately, and are a big key to the push they seem to be making. I am pretty comfortable projecting that the Packers will be in the postseason as a Wild Card at this point.

f. Jim Leonhard of the Jets is a tremendously underrated player, and I left him out of my Good AFC Safeties list last week, kind of by accident. He is always around the football, and I've been a big fan of his game going all the way back to his days at Wisconsin. The Broncos offered him more money than the Jets this offseason, but he chose to follow Rex Ryan. It seems like it was a good decision for him, anyway.

g. I watched the Short Cut of the Jets-Panthers game, and I agree with Doug Lee that Mark Sanchez's 13-of-17 stat line was very misleading. He had happy feet, and he looked really confused a lot of the time.

h. I've seen a few people starting to use the line which goes "If Alex Smith plays like he did Sunday, the Niners might not replace him in the draft." Really, he has played pretty well for six games, better than ever before in his career. I think the decision would already be made, if it was up to me. You have a guy who is proving he can play, and he's improving even as teams get some film on him. That rollout and throw to Frank Gore for the second TD was a thing of beauty, as Smith waited till the last possible second, and threw the ball to the only spot he could put it. I'd be looking to improve the offensive line, and counting on having a Top-10 offense next season, with Smith, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, and Vernon Davis. Joe Staley is a solid LT when he's healthy, but General Manager Scot McCloughan really would do well to replace the other 4 starters up front. Sunday's game was the first time in 18 games that the 49ers didn't give up a single sack.

i. I tend to like a lot of University of Florida guys, but Ray McDonald is really coming into his own in a specialist role for the 49ers. He looked unblockable at times Sunday. McDonald usually plays in passing situations at DE. According to ESPN, he didn't record a tackle, but he did recover a fumble. I'm telling you, though, he was defeating some blocks Sunday, and bringing a lot of pressure.

3. There are two kinds of name-droppers, and I am the second kind. It's not like I am extremely famous (yet) with my writing for this site, but when you think about it, I'm known by more people than probably 98% of the population. I'm definitely more famous than any of my friends and family, and in the course of telling my stories, I find it adds rhetorical flourish to mention them sometimes, and it's also fun to share my little bit of light with them. I tell people, if they want to make ST&NO, they should do something interesting with me.

The first kind of name-dropper is the one who tries to stand in other people's light. Our dear friend Jay Glazer is the quintessential example of this kind. Check this douchebaggery, from Tuesday night:

First of all, it's Too $hort, not two-short. And, you know what? That's all I have on that topic. I like making fun of Glazer, but whatever, you know? Fish in a barrel.

I am now going to name-drop a person who is as famous as I am. I met Doug Lee for lunch in Manhattan on Saturday. Yes, THE Doug Lee. Friggin Horse Tracks Doug Lee, people! Doug is a cool guy, and he suggested a great burger spot on the Upper East Side.

The lunch conversation was very interesting, the food was terrific, and it was great to meet Doug, but the hijinks ensued when I left to get back on the road back to Cleveland. I had parked on E 71st Street between 1st and 2nd Avenue (for 14 bucks for 2 1/2 hours.) I came out heading south on 2nd Ave, thinking my GPS would send me back to the FDR, and the Triboro bridge, back up to catch the George Washington Bridge.

Well, it took about 2 minutes for my boy Tom Tom to reacquire a signal, and by then I had gone south 10-15 blocks on 2nd. Tom Tom then wanted me to go to the Lincoln Tunnel, the entrance for which is in the 30s, off 9th Avenue, so significantly south and west of where I started out. It's an unquestionably stupid way to go, driving over the river and through the woods in Manhattan, even on a Saturday afternoon, especially considering the Lincoln Tunnel spits you out on the New Jersey Turnpike, heading toward the world-renowned hell-hole of Newark.. (Home of wred-mann.)

Where's the payoff pitch? Here it goes. I was sitting at a traffic light at E 43rd St and 2nd Avenue, and this Puerto Rican guy (with a flag on his shirt, incidentally), knocked on my window. I looked at him like, WTF? But I lowered the window, and he told my right rear tire area looked like it was on fire, and was smoking like crazy. A woman walking behind him told me the same thing, so I pulled over on 43rd and troubleshot it with my dad on the phone for awhile, before deducing that the emergency brake had probably stayed clamped to the rotor, and was causing sparks and smoke. I watched it, with my mirror pointed down, but eventually I was comfortable enough to go through the tunnel, and eventually through Newark, and back to I-80. The moral of the story is if somebody knocks on your window, he may be trying to be helpful, so you shouldn't look cross-eyed at him, as a matter of instinct. Also, sometimes, Tom Tom messing up is a blessing in disguise. If I had gone FDR to the Triboro, to the GW, It would have been all highway, with nobody walking down the sidewalk to knock.

4. One of the hazards of relying on "insiders" for information is that it comes with agendas and spin. Pro Football Weekly is a (Bill Williamson Memorial) decent site, but they rely tremendously on anonymous insider commentary. They've been talking to somebody who seems incentivized to cast Raheem Morris as woefully inept. Check this out:

Talk of the Buccaneers giving head coach Raheem Morris another offseason to turn the team around is fading fast, as his latest bold decision was another admission of failure in a season marked with disappointment. Morris seized defensive coordinator duties from Jim Bates on Nov. 24 and demoted Bates to what is being described as an advisory role, although it's not clear just what kind of involvement or authority, if any, Bates will have for the rest of his time with the organization.

Morris made a couple of mistakes in hiring his staff, but they were the kind of mistakes a first-timer can make, especially one who gets a Head Coaching job a month after most of the movement was over. There's this persistent meme that relieving Jeff Jagodzinski and Jim Bates of their duties somehow shows Morris to be weak. I say it's the other way around. He realized that he had made mistakes, and he let sunk costs be sunk costs, and made the moves that he felt gave his team the best chance to win.

Morris's team is 1-10, but the Bucs have improved as the season has gone on, and it would be asinine to fire him after a season which was a declared rebuilding year, where a coach who they knew was probably hired a year too early learned the ropes.

There are a lot of haters in the world, and I relate pretty closely to Morris. I have always been an overachiever, who has consistently beaten out older, more experienced professional competition for promotions and recognition. Not to toot my own horn or anything, but I have a pretty good deal of talent, and a strong work ethic. The majority of my critics have only been moderately talented people, with medium work ethics. Let's face it, there are a lot of people in the center of the bell curve. I am in the center of the bell curve in certain ways, and so is everybody. I am not, though, as an accountant, and Raheem Morris is not as a football coach.

So, some 25-year career assistant who has been hired and fired 15 times is jealous of Morris and his early success. He spouts off to Dan Parr at PFW, and Parr writes that article above. The same thing was going on with Josh McDaniels, with the questioning of his ability, and Josh only got clear of it by winning. Morris will, too.

Even a guy like Marshall Faulk was hating on Morris on Sunday morning, intimating that all the young coach knew how to call was Tampa-2. Well, for 7 end-of-game goal-to-go plays, he called press man-to-man, and his guys covered well. On 4th down, Roddy White made a great play, and won the game for the Falcons. Really, if Connor Barth had hit the 51-yard field goal he attempted, they would have only been playing for a tie. I saw somewhere Morris was criticized for kicking the field goal rather than punting. Really? The point is don't listen to these idiots. I'd be very surprised if the Glazer family is.

5. I have a couple of quick college thoughts.

a. The Head Coaching job at Notre Dame is not a good one. I could usually take or leave SI.com's Stewart Mandel, but he has it exactly right. The expectations there are entirely unreasonable, given the constraints they face. If I were Cincinnati's Brian Kelly, there is no way in hell I'd take that job. At Cincinnati, he has a program whose credibility is on the rise, and who will soon be taken more seriously in the National Championship picture. At Notre Dame, there's just faded mystique.

b. I am a Florida fan, and I think it is unlikely that Tim Tebow wins the Heisman Trophy. I am actually pretty excited for the prospect of the lesser Colt McCoy winning, because history will be repeating itself. I am projecting a win against Alabama, and a Texas win against Nebraska, neither of which is a foregone conclusion, but let's say it happens like that. Tebow will lead Florida into a National Championship game against a guy he lost the Heisman to. I would be really bullish for Florida's 3rd title in 4 years, even more than I already am.

c. Speaking of the Heisman, I think it's ridiculous how it's turned into nothing more than a tool for media conjecture. Frankly, it follows along the same line of thinking that dominates professional football writing, that all of the best players are QBs and RBs, joined by the occasional WR. It's a total farce.

That's all I have this week. I will be back next Tuesday for more of a full-figured ST&NO. Have a great week, and Go Broncos!

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:00:20 -0000

Happy Tuesday, friends. It's a short week, with another game on Thursday night, so there's no time to mope or feel sorry for ourselves. In their scheduling wisdom, the NFL took away our right to do so - and I, for one, am glad. The Giants can be beaten, with sound play, but we'll get to that eventually. For now we'll put this week to bed and move on quickly. Ready.... BEGIN!!!!

1. I am approaching one full year as a staff contributor to MHR, having joined at the beginning of December 2008. It's been quite an interesting year, and my relationship to the team has kind of changed in an unexpected way during that time.

I first discovered MHR in April 2008, right before the draft. It, and SBNation, have come a long way since then, but the basics were the same; MHR is a respectful, knowledgeable community which discussed all things about their team. I was inspired to join such a community, and I started posting some FanPosts (which were still called Diaries only a year and a half ago).

Unlike a lot of staff members, I wasn't asked to fill a specific role, so I had to figure out what mine would be. I had always done some around the league stuff, but I wanted to find a delivery formula that would work well on a Broncos site. I debuted ST&NO on January 12, 2009, with the following opening:

As we enter the re-loading season, I felt like I needed to establish a fun new recurring feature. HT has MHR University, and Broncobear has the always excellent Tales from the Sunny Side. Styg is heading up some great draft coverage, which has a fun name, which you'll be hearing about very soon. Nick has some statistical analysis pieces which will be coming, and Zappa will continue to be Zappa, intermittently unleashing jolts of Broncos fan brilliance. And the Guru, when we form like Voltron, the Guru is the head.

So where does that leave me? Well, I was thinking a couple days ago, as I listened to Enter The Wu-Tang and shoveled a foot of snow, that two things I can consistently provide are shallow thoughts, and nearsighted observations. Since this is a Broncos blog, I'll focus on our team, but I'll also include some league-wide thoughts, for keeping-up-with- the-Jones purposes. Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. What else could be needed on top of that? Maybe just some more cowbell.... Did anybody bring a cowbell?

Well, ST&NO has grown, and I have too. As I was sitting on my couch Sunday, watching the debacle against the Chargers, I realized that I wasn't yelling and cursing as much as normal. I didn't get that excited, and I have to say, upon some reflection, that I have been less excitable about the Broncos this season than ever. For the first 6 games, I had a hard time finding new ways to express my pleasure with the situation, and for the last 4, I have had trouble doing the opposite thing.

All I can figure is that my role in writing for this site has subtly and gradually forced me to become more of an objective analyst, and less of a passionate fan. I think the change largely has to do with my relationship with and attitude toward reporters.

I like to beat up on NFL reporters, because I think that most of them only have a surface-level knowledge of what is going on in a football game. The Broncos have a couple of good reporters, in Lindsay Jones and Jeff Legwold, and I never take any shots at them. I actually have tended toward staying away from taking deserved shots at the Denver-area Woody Paige bloviator class, because I don't want to spend the site's goodwill with the Denver media; it's John's to spend, not mine, after all. (Woody going after Kyle at BroncoTalk made me briefly lift my moratorium in the comments section of Horse Tracks the other day.)

Here's a summary of my general attitude toward football reporting. I think there is relatively little value in the reporting of news, at the national level. When Lindsay Jones reports on what happened at the facility every day, there is value in that. When Chris Mortensen hears 10 minutes before Jay Glazer that Chris Simms will start, who cares? Everybody was going to find out soon enough anyway, so what's the difference who had it first?

The real value, to me, is in the analysis, which is why I devote my time and effort to being a good analyst. While I am not a journalist, I do admire the journalistic principle of objectivity, and I think that in reconciling my criticism of national NFL reporters with my long-held policy of non-hypocrisy, I have become more objective. If I am going to beat them up for not knowing the technical aspects of the game as well as me, I can't be less objective than them. Something like that.

I remember last spring sitting in a bar with some co-workers for a happy hour, and seeing Woody's face come on Around The Horn. I told this girl I work with, Trudy, that I competed with him in the marketplace of ideas, and that I kicked his butt, on the merits. Well, I really don't think of Woody as my competition anymore, for a lot of obvious reasons. (Like, for example, he can't compete with me.) Due to the established nature of my content, I feel like I am competing with national guys, like Peter King and Gregg Easterbrook, even if this platform is Broncos-specific.

So, the point of this is that I was struggling with what to say in a general way about Sunday's game, when I don't have the deep feelings that most of you do, and that I would have had a year ago. I feel like I imagine Tom Jackson to feel; I'm very disappointed at the result for my affiliated team, but at the end of the day, I have the rest of the football landscape to worry about, too, and I have to get on with the business of being an objective analyst. I am still coming to grips with this change, and I am not really sure what the ancillary implications are for me. This may be one of these existential crises like we're seeing with Team Edward or Team Jacob. (I have a lot of 20-something women among my Facebook friends, so, trust me, I know.) See here for a funny breakdown of that Twilight sitch-ee-ation.

(Big up my man Justin Dazet for finding that. Justin writes a blog that gets into gaming and other stuff, and a San Diego area column on Geek Culture. Check him out if you're into that sort of thing.)

Momentarily, I will get back to the business of breaking down the game details, like I always do, but I thought I should at least explain why there was no impassioned, emotional screed today about the Broncos.

2. Information From My Eyes - Chargers at Broncos

a. First things first. I am going to tell you why Kyle Orton didn't start the game. He couldn't take snaps from under center and drop back effectively. It's that simple. The injury that he has prevented it. If you can only play in the shotgun, your running game is severely limited, from the perspective of the direction you can run. Josh McDaniels said this without really getting detailed, but this is what he meant.

Orton took a few snaps under center, but he really labored with his footwork, and it hindered the timing of the running game, and the Broncos could only really run to the A and B gaps. When the QB is playing slow, it makes the whole offense play slow, unfortunately.

b. The Broncos came out running the ball like they meant business. They could do that with Chris Simms under center, but Simms obviously never held his end of the bargain as a passer. When Orton came into the game, it wasn't conducive to running the ball, and neither was Orton's ability to retreat from center.

c. Knowshon Moreno scored a Touchdown, and ~~Ron~~ Nuclear Winter's crew blew the call. When I saw who the referee was, right after kickoff, I tweeted;

I am sure Moreno's play was a TD by virtue of relative positioning. To wit, Russ Hochstein's knee was across the goal line, and if his knee caused the fumble, which it clearly did, then the ball had to be across the goal line. That play was an absolute killer, because with a TD at the end of the half, the Broncos are right back in the game at 13-7. The energy of the game had momentarily shifted to the Broncos, and just like that, it was gone.

d. I was very disappointed with the defensive scheme, as I have been the last several weeks. The Broncos have really changed from an aggressive defense to one which is reading and reacting, and I don't like it at all. In the game at San Diego, the Broncos had great success pressuring the A gaps, and I saw very little effort to do that Sunday. They also got Elvis Dumervil in favorable matchups against the terrible Jeromey Clary, and again, there was none of that. Clary was even injured, and they didn't seem like they wanted to go after him. The Broncos need to get back to what made them tough on defense.

e. A little noticed good thing about Sunday was kickoff and punt coverage. The Broncos never let Darren Sproles hurt them in the return game, and both Josh Barrett and David Bruton made outstanding plays in downfield coverage.

f. The Chargers defensive backs got away with playing through the bodies of Denver receivers several times. The Broncos were a lot sloppier than San Diego, but not to the point where the penalty disparity should have been as wide as it was. It seems to me that teams which have "physical" labels like San Diego, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore get away with mugging a lot of WRs, and not just with crappy officiating crews like Nuclear Winter. It's like how you might call a foul playing an indoor basketball game at the Y, but you wouldn't call the same thing playing streetball.

g. Speaking of penalties, I want to know what the unsportsmanlike conduct was against Marcus Thomas and Ronald Fields on those two kicking plays. It seemed to me that they just hit the long snapper, though it was hard to tell from the TV angles on the recorded Short Cut. Those seemed like Nuclear Winter ticky-tack calls.

h. Andre' Goodman had a hard time dealing with the size of Malcolm Floyd on Sunday. Chris Chambers has done very well in Kansas City, but Floyd is a much tougher matchup for a guy like Goodman.

i. I put a great deal of the Broncos' recent offensive struggles on the absence of Ryan Harris. They haven't been able to protect nearly as well as they did in the first six games. That's not exactly meant to be an indictment of Tyler Polumbus, who is fine as a backup OT and special teams player. It's just recognizing the fact that Harris is one of the best RTs in the game. The timing of the offensive struggles aren't coincidental. It looks like Harris is still hurt, but let's hope he can play on the other side of the Giants game.

j. Again, the gap discipline took a vacation in the second half of the football game. Peter King thinks the defense of the first six games was a mirage, which is dramatically oversimplifying the case. They have still been quick and active for big stretches during the losing streak. It's just been less common to see them sustain it for 60 minutes lately. D.J. Williams (again) and Andra Davis both had pretty bad days in the gap discipline department.

k. I was fine with the onsides kick call, even if it didn't work. It was a good situation for it, because the Broncos were going to lose anyway without a big play.

3. Information From My Eyes - Other Games

a. Again, Thursday seems like it was a long time ago. I was very impressed with the play of Ricky Williams in the absence of Ronnie Brown. I haven't liked the play of Williams so much, maybe ever. The Dolphins didn't do much of their Wild Cute Marine Mammal stuff, but they ran very well from traditional formations, against a Carolina defense which is usually stout against the run. The direct snap stuff is good because of Brown, who has a rare instinctiveness for the options it provides. The Dolphins were smart to go back to the handoff game with Williams.

b. I still don't like Chad Henne's tattoo, but he had a very steady game. He's improving as a player every week, and I give the Dolphins a lot of credit for taking it slow with him, and developing him in an intelligent way. Tony Sparano doesn't receive a lot of acclaim, but I have been very impressed with the coaching job his staff has done for two years now.

c. The Dolphins have started ST&NO Favorite Sean Smith at RCB all season, and are now starting Vontae Davis at LCB. They have done a great job, and they really more than held their own against Muhsin Muhammad and Steve Smith last Thursday. Both guys are very talented, but again, it's a testament to the coaching they are getting from Todd Bowles, the Dolphins Assistant Head Coach and Secondary coach. I fully expect Bowles to get a head coaching job this offseason, even though nobody in the reporter-o-sphere is talking about him.

d. I criticized Joey Porter's play last week, but the benching seems to have motivated him. He was dominant, with two sacks and two other tackles for losses. It helped that Jordan Gross was hurt, but Porter looked much better than I have seen him this season, regardless of the matchup.

e. I watched a great deal of the Green Bay-San Francisco game, and I came away thinking that Aaron Rodgers has it better than Alex Smith from a protection standpoint, which isn't saying much at all, obviously. San Francisco has a pretty good LT in Joe Staley, but he's been hurt for a few weeks now. Smith couldn't do anything at all for most of the game Sunday, because he was getting hit the second he got to the top of his drops.

In the second half, with the score getting lopsided, the Niners smartened up and just put Smith in the shotgun, where he is most comfortable. He responded with 3 TD passes and made the game look like it was closer than it was. I continue to think that Smith is more than good enough to win with, if he gets protection. When you evaluate what he does in a vacuum, he's doing the right things way more often than not.

f. I have heard a lot of criticism of Aaron Rodgers lately, but he continues to look like a top-notch passer to me. He is gaining 8.2 yards per pass attempt, with 19 TDs and 5 INTs this season. He has also run for more yards than any QB in the NFL, and 3 TDs. I also tend to think you have to evaluate Rodgers in a vacuum, and other than holding the ball a little too long sometimes, he doesn't do much wrong. The last couple weeks, he's been getting the ball out quicker, too.

g. The loss of Al Harris is really going to hurt the Packers badly. It severely limits their ability to use Charles Woodson in the wide variety of roles that they liked to use him in. Woodson has often covered TEs and is a great blitzer. He's played as well as any defensive player in the NFL this season, and now the Packers may need to use him more on the outside.

I actually think the loss of Aaron Kampman is pretty negligible for them, despite his big name. He hasn't adjusted well to playing OLB, and his tallness has hurt him. By coming from a standup position, Kampman hasn't gotten the leverage he used to play with. He needs to move on to a 4-3 team where he can play on the strongside again. He's about the best in the NFL at that, after Mario Williams.

h. I can't believe the Jaguars are 6-4, but they are. When they win, they have been getting good play from David Garrard and Mike Sims-Walker, which they did on Sunday against Buffalo. Garrard is an interesting guy, because he seems young, but he isn't. He's actually 31, and he's probably reached the prime of his career. He's good enough to take a team to the playoffs, obviously, but do you build around him? I kind of feel the same way about Garrard as I did about Jake Plummer at the end of 2005, though I think Garrard is a little better player than Plummer was.

i. A guy who has been an outstanding player for a few years, without getting any credit, is Kyle Williams for the Bills. He was dominant on Sunday. Williams is kind of a short, stout DT, who does a great job getting penetration from a 3-technique position. He's never been a big sack guy, but his ability to shoot gaps has disrupted a lot of running games.

j. It's funny how many ST&NO favorites become really good players in the NFL. Percy Harvin hasn't gotten a lot of credit, because the media is busy loving on Brett Favre, but he's become a good NFL receiver quickly. A lot of Mel Kiper's said Harvin didn't run a lot of routes at Florida, but he was always open when he did. It was clear to me that he'd be able to separate with quickness as he learned NFL technique. His technique is improving quickly, and he's a handful. Along with Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian, he's part of a really dangerous receiving corps. I can't think of a lot of groups I'd take over them, actually.

k. Joseph Addai has never been a favorite of mine, but he's playing better than ever lately. I still think that Donald Brown is going to be the better player, but Addai seems to have found some confidence and toughness that I never perceived in him.

l. The AFC has had a lot of outstanding safety play this season, but if I had to pick two starters for the Pro Bowl, they'd be Melvin Bullitt and Bernard Pollard. Bullitt got some notice for stopping the 4th and 2 last week, but he has been terrific in replacing Bob Sanders. Tampa 2-teams need a quick safety who can get from a cover-2 shell to the box very quickly, and Bullitt has done it as well as Sanders ever did.

Pollard was cut by Kansas City, and I just didn't get it. Maybe Scott Pioli was paying him back for last season's hit on Tom Brady? Pollard has been spectacular at times for the Texans, and has really been the star on the back end that they've never had. (No, Dunta Robinson is not a star; he's only paid like one.)

Brian Dawkins, Ed Reed, Jairus Byrd, Antoine Bethea, Kerry Rhodes, Brandon Meriweather, and Reggie Nelson would be battling it out for the last Pro Bowl spot, but I am sure about the top 2, as of today.

m. Laurence Maroney is doing a decent job of re-establishing his reputation as a solid RB. He has had the knock of not being particularly tough, kind of like Addai, but Maroney has been picking up a lot of tough yards lately. Take away the goal-line fumble against he Colts, and he's been really good.

n. Mark Sanchez looked confused almost the whole game on Sunday, against a New England team that knows how to confuse a QB. Sanchez is a classic example of what happens when teams get some film on you and know what you're going to do. I don't think it's time to bench him, like the average Peter King is calling for, but it would definitely behoove the Jets to figure out what Sanchez is comfortable doing, and sticking to only that stuff.

o. I can tell you right now, the Lions had a fantastic draft in 2009. Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew, and Louis Delmas all look like future Pro Bowlers. MHR favorite Sammie Lee Hill has been a solid starter at DT, and DeAndre Levy has been solid starting at WLB, since Ernie Sims as lost for the season, too. The guy I might like best, actually, is sixth-rounder Aaron Brown, a RB from TCU. He caught a TD pass on Sunday, but where he looked really dangerous was on kickoff returns. He's very explosive looking. I think Derrick Williams will eventually be a useful player too, and that makes 7 hits in one draft class. It's exactly the kind of performance that their opponents from Sunday (the Browns) need.

p. Speaking of he Browns, I have some thoughts. It sucks to lose like that, on an untimed down, but if I was a Browns fan, I would feel a lot better than I did a week ago. Brady Quinn had his best day as a pro, with 4 TD passes, and a 5th one dropped. Sure, he wasn't pressured a lot, when Detroit didn't blitz, but he looked like he was in command, and the offensive game plan looked like Brian Daboll trusted Quinn, finally. Mohamed Massaquoi and Chansi Stuckey did a very nice job making plays down the field.

I mentioned that the Browns need a good draft; they have 11 picks as of right now, and they need to hit on the majority of them. If I were their new football czar, I wouldn't draft a QB in the first round. I would give Quinn a full year with better talent (and coaching), and see what I have. My target would be Russell Okung, an OT from Oklahoma State, who I'd play on the right side. The Browns' current right side is flat-out awful. I'd be bringing in 2 good RBs, since they have zero right now. They need a Correll Buckhalter-type of free agent, and a second-round pick like a Jonathan Dwyer from Georgia Tech. One of their 3rd-round picks would go for a TE who can catch, like Ed Dickson from Oregon. With 2 new RBs, a TE, and a RT, all of a sudden, you have a solid group of players on offense.

Offense has to be the priority, because their 5 TDs on Sunday matched their previous total in 9 games. They aren't really that far away from being league-average, and I only used 3 of 11 picks in this hypothetical situation. The Browns could be 8-8 or 9-7 next season, if they make the most of their offseason opportunities. I can see it now; Todd Bowles wins coach of the year for them, after going from 2-14 to 9-7.

q. The Texans just continue to lose heartbreakers. Matt Schaub made plays, again, and gave his team a chance to win, again. And then Kris Brown blew it, again. I feel really bad for guys like Schaub, Andre Johnson and Mario Williams, who bring it every week. I'd hate to see these circumstances cost Gary Kubiak his job, but they just might.

r. I was going to talk about how everybody needs to slow down on the Vince Young hype train, but he justified the hype Monday night. Repeatedly, he picked up 3rd downs with his legs, and his throwing was pretty good too. He particularly threw a pretty ball that Nate Washington didn't come down with. He looked like he did at the University of Texas. You heard it here first; the Titans are going to beat San Diego by 2 TDs in a few weeks.

s. Trent Dilfer is a really terrible analyst, and I don't get the Steve Levy and Matt Winer combination with him. Usually, there's one anchor type to serve up softballs to the analyst. It's a weird setup. Back to Dilfer, I think the guy is just about always wrong.

t. Right after I typed that, ESPN went back to the Stuart Scott-Matt Millen-Steve Young set, and they proceeded to blame Matt Schaub for Kris Brown's missed field goal. Epic FAIL. All the guy could do was what he did. He moved his team down the field in 45 seconds, and set them up with a shot at a makeable kick. How in the world does that fall on the QB that they lost the game? That is just too idiotic for words

4. As promised, here is the rationale for why the Broncos can win on Thursday night. The Giants are extremely susceptible to getting beaten down the field, since they lost their starting Free Safety, Kenny Phillips. They are getting Aaron Ross back into the swing of things at CB, but he hadn't played all season, prior to this past Sunday.

With their shakiness on the back end, the Giants have blitzed a bit less than in past years, particularly in the A gaps. Tyler Polumbus will need some help on Justin Tuck, when they're matched up, but I expect the Broncos to be able to protect Kyle Orton reasonably well.

The Giants, meanwhile, aren't getting much from their running game lately. I also believe that their WRs don't pose a huge threat against Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman. David Diehl will almost certainly struggle against Elvis Dumervil, because he's a natural LG playing LT. I feel pretty good about the defensive matchup, really.

This game is no lock, obviously, but it's one which the Broncos can win if they execute, stop taking bad penalties, and take care of the football. John Bena had it exactly right Sunday night. The Broncos can't beat good teams if they make mistakes, and the Giants are a good team. A victory is very plausible, though, if they do what they need to do.

5. I have cited several reasons lately for cutting ST&NO a little short, and I have another one. I got a bit sidetracked from writing, because of some big news in my family, which led to some calling, texting, and emailing, but not much writing.

On Monday night, my brother Chris911's wife Ana gave birth to their first child, Elizabeth Danielle Bartlett, at 7:36 Pacific Time, in Los Angeles, CA. Elizabeth weighed 5 pounds, 12.5 ounces, and was 17 1/4 inches long. Mother and baby are doing well. It occurred to me that I was in a good position to write the first birth announcement. Please join me in congratulating Chris and Ana on the birth of the newest little Broncos fan.

Since I am decidedly not in the having kids business, I took some time to live vicariously through them, and try to feel their excitement. Now, I am going to get back to living vicariously though myself, though. Y'all know how I do...

6. I am hitting the road for Connecticut on Tuesday, right after this story posts, to go eat some turkey, take a hellified tryptophan nap, and find a bar with NFL Network. My main reason for going, though, is to play in the 38th Annual Erb-Orsini Bowl in my hometown of Norwich, CT. I am only 32, so it predates me, but I have played in a number of them over the years. I said I would try to go back east for it last year, but it was snowing all across Pennsylvania, and I decided at the last minute to stay in Cleveland. I wasn't feeling 600 miles of driving in snow. This year, I wanted to show up and play, and the weather is cooperative. I have too much work to do to take the time, but I am going to work on Wednesday from a Tim Horton's restaurant.

The Erb-Orsini Bowl is a touch game, but it's been pretty physical and competitive in the past. The picture below is from the 2004 game. I am on the left. On the right is my brother John. He laid out for a pass early in the game, and was shaken up. His shoulder hurt, and he said that he didn't want to catch any more passes, and that he'd just stay in and pass-block, so he did just that. Thirty-six hours later, after not saying anything more about the topic, he decided to go to the hospital. Turned out, he had broken his shoulder. It's kind of the Bartlett way to suffer in silence, really, which is owed to being half Irish.

The keeper of the flame is the guy in the midde, my long-time friend Tony Orsini. Tony, as it happens, is a huge Giants fan. He's such a huge fan, actually, that he and his dad spent thousands of dollars to go to Arizona and get tickets for Super Bowl XLII against the mighty Patriots. Against that 16-0 team, i would have never spent that kind of coin, but he did, and he was rewarded. (To me, when I heard about it, it sounded like that time in 7th grade when I bet Pete Lacombe 5 bucks that Denver would beat San Francisco, straight-up, in Super Bowl XXIV, even though my allowance was $2 per week at that time. That was an all-time dumb call.)

On Thursday morning, I am hoping for a good Erb-Orsini Bowl, where I make some big plays, and on Thursday night, for our Broncos to beat Tony's Giants. Do any of y'all have good Turkey Bowls to play in? Let's hear some tangential Thanksgiving football stories. You might as well get with me on this meandering, because you never know where we might end up when the carousel stops.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. The Buffalo coaching search is interesting. We know they've reached out to Mike Shanahan, and word materialized Monday night/Tuesday morning that Bill Cowher was contacted, and that he declined to be considered. Ralph Wilson is 91, and he wants to win now. Unfortunately for Buffalo, he is relatively cash-poor, and the team probably doesn't stay in his family when he dies, due to estate taxation. If it leaves his family, it almost certainly leaves Buffalo, which is a rapidly declining city.

If I were a coach looking for work, I would consider Buffalo unattractive for those reasons, as well as for the fact that they don't have a QB or any real quality on the O-Line. They have 2 good RBs, the fantastic Lee Evans, some good CBs and a good young safety in Jairus Byrd and pass rusher in Aaron Maybin. Paul Posluszny is solid, and Kyle Williams is very good, as I mentioned. The cupboard is not totally empty talent-wise, but it's a serious personnel challenge in a boring, economically depressed cold-weather town. The only thing they have on Cleveland, in terms of attracting free agents, is marginally better-looking uniforms. I expect that the Bills end up hiring a first time Head Coach, after being spurned by Shanahan and others.

That's all I have for this week, friends. I am off to get on the road for the East Coast. I won't see any comments until 10 or 11 hours from now, but I will check them out when I get where I am going, and will answer the ones that need answering. Have a great week, a great holiday, and a great Football Thursday. Go Broncos!

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:30:23 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

about 1 month ago: Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, left, tries to elude the rush of Denver Broncos' Darrell Reid (95) and a second defender during the first quarter of an NFL football game Monday, Nov. 9, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

Happy Tuesday, friends. After being up late, and watching a hard-fought game go awry, I bet you're pretty bleary-eyed, and grumpy, but let's try to make this a good day. I don't want to think that the Broncos have fallen into losing habits here, and I really don't think that's the case.

Of course, those who speak, but don't know what they're talking about, will start screaming about how the Broncos have been exposed, and they're a fraud, and every other damn thing. A few persistent issues have emerged, but they can be corrected. If anything, losing back-to-back games against good teams can teach you a great deal about your own team.

Let's reflect on this, as I know the coaching staff is, and the players are. Next week, the Broncos face the Redskins, which presents a great opportunity to get back on the winning track. After that, San Diego comes to town. The Broncos still control the AFC West, make no mistake about that.

On the other side of the jump, we'll break it all down. Ready..... BEGIN!!!!

1. It's now midseason, and the Broncos are 6-2, and in first place by a game, and having beaten San Diego on the road. Think back to August, and if I told you that's where the Broncos would be, you'd be happy to take that deal, right? It's a little less great to win the first 6 and lose the last 2, but whatever.

I mentioned some issues, and I want to talk about them briefly. I think all are fixable in the second half of the season.

a. Ben Hamilton is getting to be pretty useless, and I think it's time to see what Seth Olsen has. Hamilton has gone from being above-average before his concussion-driven missed season, to average last season, to decidedly below-average this season. Every time the Ravens and Steelers needed to get pressure on Kyle Orton, they did it over Hamilton. Every other team in the NFL has seen that, and will try to replicate that strategy.

From former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah, during the game:

I don't know what Olsen can do yet, but he's definitely bigger and stouter than Hamilton. I have to think he can anchor better than what we've seen from #50. I am pretty sure Russ Hochstein isn't the answer, but I'd like to see what Olsen looks like.

b. The Broncos need better execution overall on offense. The scheme is fine, and the players are fine, they just need to make the plays that they have a chance to make. They have had some bad penalties, some poorly-timed drops, some slip-and-falls in the running game putting them off schedule, and lately, some bad throws. Plays like Brandon Stokley coming just short of a first down, and Hamilton getting called for a (really questionable) holding penalty on a converted 4th-and-5 are what has been hurting the Broncos offense. The coaches need to send the message that if the players who are playing don't execute, they'll find somebody who will.

c. Signing Mitch Berger was a big mistake. I think it's worth working out some other punters, but really, I liked Brett Kern. If somebody better than Berger is available, I think he should be brought in. Getting a good punter needs to be a high priority in the offseason, too.

d. Interestingly, short-yardage offense has improved during the two losses, as the Broncos have shown a willingness to throw some in those situations. It is still a concern going forward, though. Olsen may help here, if he is given a shot.

e. No-huddle offenses have been problematic for the Broncos the last two weeks. They limit their ability to disguise coverages and rush packages, and they also make it hard to substitute as much as the Broncos want to. Not every team is effective in the no-huddle, but just about every team the Broncos might see in the playoffs is. They need to figure out who their best base defensive group is against the no-huddle.

I think my underlying thought right now is that the Broncos probably aren't quite ready for the Super Bowl, but they hung with a team tonight who is a real championship contender. They beat New England a couple weeks ago, who is a real championship contender. They beat Dallas and Cincinnati, who at the least are good teams. The Broncos have a ways to go, but as first halves of the season go, you have to feel pretty good about theirs. It's not time to start anything over, or blow anything up. It's time to make a few adjustments, execute better, and keep working toward winning games.

2. Information from My Eyes, Steelers at Broncos.

a. Did I mention that I think Mitch Berger sucks? Nothing has particularly changed for me on that score. John Bena coined a new term last night, Brett Kern-backers. I liked Kern, but I don't think I am a Brett Kern-backer. I am a guy who wants a consistent good performance from the Broncos punter, whoever it is.

Philosophically, not a single player or coach on this team means more to me than the team itself. I don't care who is doing it, I just want it done. As much as I love John Elway, the team always came before him to me, too. Part of his greatness, though, was that he'd never make you separate him from the team.

b. It didn't get mentioned a lot, but Tyler Polumbus struggled at RT, especially in the second half of the game. LaMarr Woodley got a lot of pressure and forced a few key throwaways. He'll be okay against most teams, but this was a tough situation for him. Ryan Harris's absence was most definitely felt.

c. I liked the work of both Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal in this game. They consistently did a good job getting open and catching the ball. Marshall had the one drop, but it was a good effort for him overall.

d. I thought D.J. Williams had his worst game of the year, by far. He was taking bad angles all night, and didn't look like he had a prayer of getting off a lot of blocks. I'm admittedly not generally his biggest fan, but he's had the best year of his career in 2009. Monday night, not so much.

e. Wesley Woodyard played a lot more snaps than he's used to, and I thought he wore down in the second half of the game. The Steelers played a tremendous amount of 3 WR sets, which kept Andra Davis on the sideline, and Woodyard in the game.

f. Kyle Orton was actually not too bad for most of the game. He had 2 bad throws, and about 3 bad decisions (one of them was picked off). He was pretty sharp the rest of the night. He needs to cut out the bad decisions, but I was generally a lot happier with his performance tonight than I was against the Ravens. (I don't care about statistics, of course.) Nobody is saying they're thrilled with his ultimate performance, of course, but there's more nuance to the situation, than just looking at the stat sheet.

g. Rashard Mendenhall was the primary reason the Steelers won the game. He got going in the second half, and it forced the Broncos to be more aggressive in the box. I used to think very little of Mendenhall, but he has improved a lot. He runs with vastly better patience and body lean than he did even just a month ago.

h. The Steelers also have themselves a find with Mike Wallace. He's very dangerous for a 3rd WR. They don't do a lot of traditional slot-type stuff, and in nickel offense, if anything, Hines Ward is their slot guy. (I think making definitive distinctions between #1, #2, and #3 WRs is silly.) Wallace has great speed, and he showed good route-running skills Monday night.

i. I liked what I saw of Ty Law in his limited action. Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins both mostly struggled in the game, neither making a great impact. Champ ought to be embarassed by letting Ward jump over him in garbage time. He knows better than that. He also got beat in man-to-man coverage several times by Santonio Holmes. Andre' Goodman was good in this game, though, even beyond his interception.

j. The Broncos use of the "mush rush" was very good in the first half, and very bad for most of the second. Robert Ayers played a key role in containing Ben Roethlisberger when he as assigned that duty, and that's what he was doing when Kenny Peterson knocked the ball free.

k. The Broncos got hosed on the Gaffney challenge, and also on the Haggan fumble recovery. Don Carey has joined my list of bad referees. I like how a return team becomes an intercepting team. I can't believe that he's related to Mike Carey, who is excellent. And he's the older brother? Wow.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games:

a. I watched a lot of the Green Bay-Tampa Bay game Sunday, for a few reasons. I haven't seen much of the Bucs this year, and I wanted to look at Josh Freeman, who I liked a lot coming out of college. He looked like a rookie at times, but he showed a lot of positives too. I thought he looked poised and confident, and I am not that surprised. I remember when he beat Texas as a freshman, and commanded the game. (My buddy lost a grand on the game, and he called me frantically looking for NFL advice for the next day, to "get back even." It was a debacle. I don't give gambling advice anymore, because of that weekend.)

Anyway, Freeman looked like a star that day in 2006, and he looked like he may be one someday in the NFL on Sunday. I think Tampa did the right thing, giving him some time to learn from the sideline, but it has to be Freeman Time the rest of the season.

b. I loved Raheem Morris's line after getting his first victory as a head coach.

Statistics are for losers, and today, we're winners.

And then, there's Chicago Bears lover/reporter/enabler/apologist Brad Biggs of National Football Post, after his beloveds got blown out again.

That's positive news? The Bears got smoked, again, Brad. Their best player, who is supposed to always play well, performed close to expectations. It's only positive news if he is on your fantasy team, which is why I don't really like fantasy football. (Well, that and the dorktastic "experts' you have to tolerate on TV.)

Cutler played alright, but he didn't do anything to elevate the play of anybody else, as usual, and the interception he threw in the 4th quarter did kill the Bears' chances of coming back.

It's amazing how the Bears team has assumed the personality of the 2008 Broncos. There's a good chance they'll get blown away on defense, and Cutler is almost definitely going to need to carry the offense. In my business, we contract with companies to take over non-core operations. We call it a lift-and-shift. You terminate your employees who work in a call center, and we'll instantly hire them. They'll work for us, and you'll pay us a fee that is less than what you pay for this operation. Meanwhile, we'll optimize, and reduce the headcount, and correspondingly, the costs.

Everybody considered Cutler's acqusition to be a lift-and-shift. The Bears got a franchise QB. Imagine what he'll do on a team that plays good defense and runs the ball. Football is such a multi-variate system, it's really amazing.

c. I would really hate to be a Bears fan. They have no high draft picks this year, and suddenly a lot of roster holes to fill. They need 3 or 4 new starters on their offensive line, to begin with. Orlando Pace is done, Josh Beekman and Roberto Garza were never starting-caliber players in the NFL, and Olin Kreutz is getting close to done. I don't care for Chris Williams, either. He's looked passable at RT, but if he was worthy of his draft slot, he would have bumped Pace, because it's clear as day that he isn't good enough. You wouldn't use a #1 on an RTO (Right Tackle Only), unless it was Jeff Otah.

They could also use some WRs, some secondary players, and a pass rusher. We're not asking for much, right?

Chicago has a cash-poor ownership group, and the cold weather and their ugly uniforms don't tend to help draw free agents. (Yes, both things matter. It's part of the problem in Cleveland too.) I just don't know how you can bring in enough players there to improve for next season.

d. On Monday I read a lot of epitaphs about the Chicago defense, which didn't get into a lot of the "why" they're so bad. As I was explaining to a friend a few days ago, a defense has to have all 11 players working well together, in order for it to be sound and effective. Because defense is fundamentally a reactive mission, there are many inter-dependencies among the three levels, and communication, like-mindedness through practice, and discipline make all the difference. That sounds simple, and it really is.

First of all, you'd better either be good against the run with 7 in the box, or have a big-time safety who can move 12 yards from a cover-2 shell to the line of scrimmage really quickly. The Bears can't stop the run with 7, so you know they'll have 8 in the box. Then, there's the passing game. When a team can't rush the passer with 4 players, they need to blitz with numbers. When they blitz with numbers, it makes it hard to play soundly in zone coverage, so you mostly have to start playing man coverage. When you play a lot of man coverage, you'd better hope you have the athletes to cover the other team's athletes - and chances are, their #3 and #4 options are better than yours. That's a simple fact of it being harder to find players with coverage skills than it is to find guys who can run a route and catch a ball, when he knows where he is supposed to go.

So you can't stop the run, you can't get pressure with 4, you can't play zone, and you can't play man. All that's left is to guess at what the offense is going to do, and play for that. The obvious problem there is what happens when you guess wrong. You get exposed, and give up huge plays. That sounds a lot like the 2008 Broncos' defense, right?

To apply this to the Bears, they used to get pressure with their front 4, but Tommie Harris is having a bad season. He was a healthy scratch for the Cincinnati game, reportedly because of some attitude issues, and they got lambasted. Then, he got ejected over some extreme foolishness 1 minute into Sunday's game. The Bears again got crushed. Harris is among the best 3-technique DTs in the NFL, when his body and attitude are right.

With no Harris, Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye have struggled to get any pressure, so the Bears have blitzed, ineffectively. They have all these tall, slow CBs who can't do anything except play zone coverage, and they got shredded in man-to-man on Sunday, as they did against Cincinnati. If you decide to be a cover-2 team, you'd better play a lot of cover-2, because your personnel can't hold up playing man.

If Harris can manage to get his body and mind right, and have a dominant second half, he could personally bring a soundness back to the Bears that could send them on a 6-2ish run in the second half to finish 10-6. The more likely outcome is that he continues to sulk, the Bears continue to get gashed, and they finish 7-9 at best. And the Broncos have a nice draft pick. Thanks, guys :)

e. Funny story. My brother Chris (who did join MHR as Chris911, incidentally) and I were talking on the phone the other night, like we do sometimes.

Chris: You know, Jay Cutler has a losing record in games where he throws for over 300 yards.

Ted: You know, Jay Cutler has a losing record as a starting QB in the NFL.

Yessir. I love that draft pick more and more every day.

f. Remember the spring of 2008 when many wanted Denver to become Vanderbilt West? It hasn't worked out so well for Chicago. Earl Bennett's ceiling is to be an average starter, if he puts it all together. He can't get off bump coverage right now, whatsoever. He also runs bad routes and drops the ball a lot. In other words, everything he was supposed to do well, he doesn't. Yes, I know he had 7 catches for 93 yards Sunday, but the vast majority of it was in garbage time, against soft zone coverage. (And, yes, wise guys, I know, most of the game was garbage time.)

Chris Williams, I already discussed. He has definitely been a disappointment. This year, the Bears took D.J. Moore, a CB, who is somehow not good enough to beat out any of the pu pu platter of guys who take turns opposite Charles Tillman. He has been a gameday inactive all season, and is not even a special teams contributor.

I watched the Florida-Vanderbilt game Saturday night, and was reflecting on this. Vanderbilt has no hope in the SEC. They can't recruit talent that is nearly good enough to compete, and most of their guys have tended to underachieve in the NFL. They are on my list with Texas and Ohio State of schools whose players I am naturally suspicious of, although it's all for different reasons.

I wonder if Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Stanford, Duke, Rice,and Baylor ever thought about forming a football-only, high-SATs conference. Actually, this year, Vandy would be in the bottom half of that league, too.

g. Staying with the college theme for a minute, the best all-around QB I have seen this season at any school is Cincinnati's sophomore backup, Zach Collaros. He has completed 76% of his passes for 1,229 yards, with 10 TDs and 1 interception in the 3+ games he has appeared in. He has also rushed 43 times for 281 yards, and 4 TDs, while only being sacked 10 times.

Cincinnati's original starter, senior Tony Pike, is expected to start this week, although head coach Brian Kelly did cop to it being a tough decision. Pike is likely to be drafted on Day 1 next spring. Collaros is going to contend for the Heisman Trophy next season, and he'll be a high pick too, when he decides to leave school. He's the total package, with an above-average arm, very good poise, and outstanding accuracy and athleticism. The only knock on him is that he's 6 feet tall, but he has some definite Drew Brees-like qualities as a thrower. This is a 75-yard TD run against a South Florida team with lots of athletes. The guy is real.

h. A guy I really like on an otherwise not-great unit is Atlanta Guard Harvey Dahl. He has been getting very good pad level, and driving guys, in helping Michael Turner have his best two games of the season. I beat up Sam Baker for his pass protection last week, but he did well in the running game Sunday, too. The Redskins are normally solid against the run, but Atlanta gashed them repeatedly.

i. Michael Lombardi stole my thunder, which is an occasional hazard of writing for Tuesday mornings. (The) Other smart analysts see(s) the same things and beat(s) you to talking about them sometimes. Ray Lewis definitely looks like he's doing it more on guile and want-to than skill anymore. I respect his effort greatly, and sometimes he makes a huge play, like against the Chargers, but he's clearly hit his downside. Big up Lombardi, for consistently seeing what the reporters don't see. (By the way, it's weird and unnatural to see Lombardi stand with a mic and interview players and coaches for NFL Network. Stop the madness, and be an analyst, Mike. You're better than some locker jockey.)

j. I was pretty critical of Dallas' Mike Jenkins earlier in the season, and he deserved it. Lately, though, he's been playing fantastic football. He did a great job Sunday night, and was the largest part of the Dallas secondary's outstanding effort not to give up the big plays that Philly wins with every week.

k. The Eagles are reputed to be a West Coast team, but they are not that, and never have been since Mr. Game Management, Andy Reid, came to town. Donovan McNabb isn't a West Coast QB, who does really well with timing throws. The Eagles are a vertical, downfield team, and they finally have guys in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek, who can get down the field and make the plays they want to make.

l. By the way, everybody knows I like Tim Tebow, but McNabb is the guy who Tebow most reminds me of. They played in similar-ish option-heavy offenses in college, and they have very similar profiles as throwers coming into the NFL. Tebow's stats are down this year, mostly due to bad pass protection, but he's throwing the ball better than ever when he gets some time.

m. The Chargers might be back. I haven't seen their LBs look as good as they did on Sunday in two years. Some of that may be due to the Giants offensive line, though, which is good in the running game, and below-average in the passing game. All this stuff about them having the best line is hogwash. (I've actually seen Michael Lombardi say that this season.) They have a natural LG, David Diehl, playing LT, and he gets owned by good pass rushers.

n. Brandon Jacobs looks really slow to the hole this season. He was never quick, but he's a different player. I have to wonder if he is hurt. Of course, I am prejudiced against tall RBs, because, definitionally, it's easier to hit them, than it is the compact guys. It's fair to say Jacobs has never been a favorite of mine.

o. I'd like to say that ST&NO favorite Alex Smith has established himself as a clear-cut solution at QB for the 49ers, but the fact is, they've lost all three games which he has played in. Two of the three interceptions he threw on Sunday were off the hands of his own players, so I don't really put those on him, personally. On the positive side, that play he made for a TD pass at the end of the first half was an All-Pro caliber play, that not many QBs could make. He kept himself alive with his feet, and made a perfect throw on the run.

This is what I know about Smith. His biggest problem is that he struggles with the mechanics of drops from under center which are more than 3 steps. It's not natural to him, and his footwork is slow, like he is thinking about it. That got him sacked on A-gap blitzes two or three times Sunday.

Smith is much more comfortable from the shotgun, and I think I would go to a medium-gun alignment with him, that is often called the Pistol. It's run a bit at some colleges, notably Nevada, and the Chiefs used it with Tyler Thigpen last season. The QB lines up 3 yards behind the center, with the RB 3 yards behind the QB. It provides better directional evenness to your running game than lining up in a full shotgun with the RB to one side or the other of the QB.

Smith can do all the things you need your QB to do; it's just a matter of putting him in position to be successful. I'll be interested to watch this game on Thursday night, against Chicago, because he could have a huge game.

p. I did like what I saw of Vince Young, again. He has played like he's fine with being part of a conservative game plan, which is what he needs. The option stuff he was running with Chris Johnson was effective, and he did hit Justin Gage deep on a couple throws. One, in particular, used all of Gage's vertical. He was actually a starter on Missouri's basketball team in his college days.

q. The Titans are suddenly playing some defense again too, especially Michael Griffin at safety. I also was impressed with William Hayes, who has taken over at LDE for Jevon Kearse, who may have finally had it, at this point. The Titans are a threat to make noise as a spoiler in the second half of the season. The return of Cortland Finnegan has helped them a lot, too. He's not the greatest cover guy, but he's a hitter, and he is always close to the ball. He compares favorably to Asante Samuel in that way.

r. The Panthers just make me shake my head sometimes. They are almost completely back to their 12-4 level from last year lately, except for their QB play. They really erred by not getting one, but John Fox and Jake Delhomme are almost married. Delhomme is going to cost Fox his job, for his sentimentality.

Remember when the Chargers whacked Marty Schottenheimer coming off the 14-2 record? It was the right move. So would cutting ties with Delhomme have been, after last season. Of course, the Chargers blew the second part by hiring Norv Turner. The Panthers will get their chance to do something in the offseason, but they have no first-round pick. If San Francisco decides Alex Smith isn't their guy, he'd be perfect for a team like Carolina, who runs the ball and attacks downfield off of play action. Marc Bulger might be a possible fit too, as the Rams will almost certainly be drafting a QB this year. The Panthers will likely need to get a retread, though.

s. The Saints deserved to get beat on Sunday, but they managed to win anyway. That's something championship teams do, is win without their best stuff.

t. The Texans are really close to being a serious playoff contender, but a Chris Brown goal-line fumble and a Kris Brown missed field goal have basically cost them two games. People haven't noticed, but Matt Schaub is putting up Pro Bowl numbers in Houston. Old friend Gary Kubiak needs to get his team to execute better in key situations.

u. I said I wasn't going to pick the addict Jaguars again, but I did on Sunday, because the Chiefs are horrible. The addicts then proceeded to almost give the game away. Shocker! ST&NO favorite Reggie Nelson had a very good game for the Jags, and so did Brandon Marshall's best friend from college, Mike Sims-Walker.

v. Matt Cassel was the bright spot for the Chiefs, again, and he continues to do pretty well with very little help. I guarantee that the Chiefs don't regret trading for him, especially at the price they paid.

4. In honor of Veterans' Day, I wanted to blaze a different path by doing something apolitical and propaganda-free. It's Tangential Story Time, in ST&NO. Yay!!!

Most regular readers are at least generally aware that I spent 4 years in the United States Navy. I don't think I have ever mentioned that going to sea is basically my family business, though. My dad was in the Navy for 14 years, and then has worked as an executive for companies which supply the Navy for the last 20+ years. His brother recently retired as a long-time civilian mariner for the Navy, and his other brother was a Marine, who rode a Navy ship or two. My youngest brother is currently employed as a Naval civilian mariner, presently working for a ship stationed in Gaeta, Italy. There's lots of salt in my family.

So, I woke up early on Sucker-Free Saturday, and a headline popped into my RSS reader that grabbed my attention.

Navy ship built with WTC steel to go into service

I clicked the link to read the article, and saw something very interesting in the first sentence.

NEW YORK — The Navy is commissioning its newest battleship with a bow forged from steel that once held up the World Trade Center.

The Navy decommissioned its last four remaining Iowa-class Battleships in the early 1990s, and I didn't think that they had any plans to bring them back, despite some misgivings from parts of the Marine Corps that current Naval Gunfire Support programs wouldn't be sufficient for a Normandy-like shore landing.

A Battleship is a specific type of ship, like in the children's game of the same name. The Iowa class had wooden decks, and three turrets with three independent 50-caliber 16-inch guns each, for a total of 9 guns. The shells were 16 inches in diameter, and weighed 2,700 pounds each. (Modern Cruisers and Destroyers have one or two (mostly two) 5-inch, 54-caliber guns each, by comparison. Those shells are 5 inches in diameter, and weigh 70 pounds.) Each Iowa-class turret took a crew of 94 men to operate, and I actually served with a guy who was working in Turret #3 on the Iowa in 1989, when Turret #2 exploded and killed 47 men.

Battleships played a large part in the Pacific theater in World War II, and somewhat minor parts in Korea, Vietnam, and the first Persian Gulf War. The primary missions of Battleships were shore bombardment, and ship-to-ship combat. The advent of precision-guided munitions (like Harpoon missiles, for ship-to-ship combat), and the reality that 5-inch, 54-caliber guns are considered by the Navy to be sufficient for Naval Gunfire Support, largely made battleships unnecessary, and the last Battleships were decommissioned not long after World War II, with a few held in reserve status. Iowa, New Jersey, Wisconsin, and Missouri were each re-commissioned several times over the coming decades, with the Missouri being the last active battleship, being decommissioned for the last time in 1992. (The picture below is of the Iowa, shooting her guns to starboard.)

So, there's this new ship, called the USS New York, and the AP says it's a battleship. At first, I was skeptical, because I know that the Battleship mission is obsolete. Thinking about it, though, it is named after a state, like US battleships have historically been. I also know that the Bush Adminstration Pentagon had some meat-heads in high places of their procurement organization, who favored weapons systems with some badass factor to them, whether they were strictly necessary or not. But I would have heard about new Battleships, right? Hmmmm.

I called the guy who would know, my father Ed, who has appeared in ST&NO before, and I got my answer.

Ted: Hey, what do you know about this new ship, New York, that was partially built from World Trade Center steel?

Ed: Well, it's being commissioned this morning.

Ted: What kind of ship is it?

Ed: It's a piece-of-(bleep) LPD-17 class. A Gator Freighter. (Note: Gator Freighter is the ~~somewhat~~ very derisive name for Amphibious Navy ships which primarily carry Marines. Surface combatant guys, like me, don't think too much of Amphibs, or the people who ride them.)

Ted: Oh, OK. This AP reporter called it a battleship, and it's named after a state, which lends that some coincidental level of plausibility. I was skeptical, so I thought I'd ask somebody who knows.

Ed: <Scoffs> The media doesn't know what the hell they're talking about.

The media doesn't know what the hell they're talking about. Hmmm... Where have I heard that before?

5. What's New In Cleveland Update:

We have a great local brewery here called Great Lakes Brewing Company, that puts out this great stuff they call Christmas Ale every year, at this time. It tastes like cinnamon, but it's 7.5% alcohol by volume, so if you're like me, and you drink them like they're just expensive Bud Lights, they can really creep on you quickly.

So, I was at a the Cleveland State University bar called Becky's last Thursday, for my fraternity's monthly alumni happy hour. I was pleased to discover that they had Christmas Ale on tap, which I would later find out was running me $18 per pitcher, times 3 pitchers. Whatever. I am drinking some fine seasonal beer, and one of the guys says, "Hey, that's Mike Trivisonno right there, like 5 feet away."

Trivisonno is the local Radio Idiot, who I have disparaged on here before a few times, as being part of the Browns problems. I am not sure what he was doing at Becky's, of all places, but he was hanging out with some uglo-Americans, who may or may not have been related to him. He's holding court, and talking about the Browns, and how the city is cursed, and blah blah blah. (I hate it when people say "blah blah blah" in a conversation, but for some strange reason I just felt the strong need to type it there, like my ex-wife possessed my body momentarily, or something. Deal with it.)

It seems the work of the Radio Idiot is never finished. He bloviates even off the clock. I wonder if Rush Limbaugh does too.... That was a little deeper than a Shallow Thought. Focus.

OK, here's the deal. There's no such thing as curses. There's only confusing hope for a plan (hat tip to Michael Lombardi). That's what they do here, in all sports - even the Cavs, to some extent. (Let's face it: the Shaq acqusition is all about hope.)

Randy Lerner, by all accounts, is an OK guy, and he wants to win. He doesn't know anything about football, and I don't think he particularly wants to, either. He's actually a soccer guy, and he owns Aston Villa. He needs somebody to establish and run a program for him. It can't be a Head Coach, because he's too hands-off for that kind of arrangement. (That works fine with appropriately engaged owners like Robert Kraft, Bud Adams, and Pat Bowlen.)

He needs a Bill Parcells-type situation, which is why he is reportedly pursuing Mike Holmgren. I think Holmgren is going to end up saying he'd rather coach than head a front office, but it's a good idea to try. Whoever ends up being the head honcho is going to fire Eric Mangini, and start over from scratch, again. This is increasingly clear. The trick is going to be hiring the right honcho, for the first time since they came back into the NFL in 1999.

Ron Wolf and Ernie Accorsi aren't going to want the job, but if I were Lerner, I'd put on a full-court press to get one of them to help me find the right honcho. A guy I would make a run at is Jimmy Johnson, but only as a team president, not a coach. You hire him, tell him he only has to work 30 hours a week, some of it from Florida, and let him hire a focused GM, (maybe Chris Polian, or Marty Hurney if he is let go at Carolina?) and let them decide what to do with the coaching staff. Then, the chain of command is clear: Owner, to President, to GM, to Head Coach.

As a side note, I expect Mangini to struggle to find future work in coaching. His credibility in the NFL is shot at this point, and what college is going to hire a guy like that? Can you see him talking a kid into coming to play at State U? Absolutely not.

6. So, I know you've been wondering what a guy like me does on a Friday night. My gameplan changes every week, like any good team's (except the Colts); and this past Friday, my friend Ashley was looking for somebody to go with her to a happy hour event at the Cleveland Museum of Art. It sounded like fun, so I emailed her, and we went.

I'd like to tell you that I am a really cultured, artsy guy, but the truth is that I'm not. I'm kind of a rugged football, business, and politics guy. Somewhat embarassingly, it was the first time I had gone to the Museum in 7 1/2 years of living in Cleveland. Ashley is really smart, though, and I figured correctly that I would learn some stuff from her.

There was a Paul Gauguin exhibit, which was included in the price of admission. I looked up Gauguin on the interwebz, and learned that he was a contemporary of Vincent Van Gogh. Van Gogh's brother Theo was actually Gauguin's agent, and he got them to work together in 1888. They spent 9 weeks together at Van Gogh's famous Yellow House in Arles, and they quarreled constantly, because they saw the right way to paint very differently. (At the CMA, there were several examples, side-by-side, where both men painted the same thing, and they looked extremely different.) Both men had bouts of depression and suicidal tendencies. When Gauguin fled the tense situation after Van Gogh threatened him with a razor blade, Van Gogh freaked out, and went to a brothel, where he famously cut part of his ear off. They never saw each other again.

When I saw the news that the Chiefs cut Larry Johnson on Monday, the thought of his relationship with Todd Haley made me think of Gauguin and Van Gogh. Haley is a talented coach, and Johnson is a talented player. Both men have reputations for being difficult, though, and many (including me) were skeptical about the pairing when Haley was hired. Johnson's actions, around callng out Haley on Twitter and using gay slurs, were stupid. Really, it's not too different from cutting your ear off, on the foolishness scale.

Haley couldn't have Johnson play for him again, just as Gauguin couldn't return to Arles to work with Van Gogh. If you're betting on futures, take Haley's (like it would have been wise to take Gauguin.) Johnson is 30 and well-worn, old for a RB; Haley is 42, which is young for a Head Coach. Van Gogh died two years after the ear incident, while Gauguin had 13 more years, and a lot of productivity after that. Go with the guy who knew it was time to cut the cord, rather than the one who cut off his ear to spite his face.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. The worst thing about November is the jewelry commercials during football games. (Well, I guess I should be glad not to see Chevy commercials with any Mellencamp songs.) I have found the answer, friends, if you're into man-cavery like me.

If you have Sunday Ticket with SuperFan, the setup works like this. Watch games on a muted TV (or two, if you can manage it, like I do). Watch the Red Zone channel on a laptop, with SuperConnect, and listen to the sound on the laptop, preferably over some decent speakers. Red Zone has no commercials, so when they come on TV, you can just ignore the visual stimulus, and listen to the sounds of what's going on on the laptop screen. I spent the whole day Sunday with this, so I got to see a lot of football, without hearing incessantly about how you're no kind of man if you don't go to Jared, the Galleria of Jewelry, and that every kiss begins with Kay. Damn, it's great to be single. (This is Ourrrrrrr Country!!!!!)

Have a good week, and let's get ready for a Broncos victory in Washington on Sunday. No hysterics are necessary, let's just take some comfort in the fairly safe assumption that our coaching staff is driving the players to learn from and improve on their mistakes. See you next Tuesday!

Horse Tracks 11/10/09 - Steelers thump Broncos, who lead Chargers by 1 game in AFC West

Douglas A. Lee — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:59:39 -0000

Good Morning, MHR Friends. Seems like deja vu all over again, huh? Keep your heads up! The Broncos are 6-2 and alone in first place this morning. Yes, it's only by a game, but you're reading it here first that they'll be up by 3 games again in two weeks' time. There is no shame in losing to the Ravens and Steelers in consecutive weeks; these two teams were the AFC finalists last year, and both get after the QB like most other teams cannot. Take a deep breath, look at the Broncos' schedule and then at that of the Dolts. Feeling better? Okay, now about last night - while there were some rough moments for them, the Broncos' D once again showed they can hang with anyone. The offense (especially the running game) and punting left a lot to be desired; but I think we'll see a dominant performance Sunday against a banged-up Redskins squad. It is NOT time to panic, Friends!

NFL - Pittsburgh Steelers 28 at Denver Broncos 10 - Box Score

NFL - Steelers 28, Broncos 10 - Video with radio calls

DB - Steelers Postgame: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DB - Turnovers Lead to Loss No. 2 - Gray Caldwell
"If you told us at the beginning of the season we'd be 6-2 at the halfway point, I think most of us would have been happy with it," Andre Goodman said. "The way the last two weeks have gone, losing to the same division, the same type of team -- playoff teams -- having a poor second half on the defensive side of the ball, it's a little disheartening, but we're not going to panic. We're just going to go back to work and do what we're used to doing."

DB - Losing the Game of Keep Away - Chris Gentilviso

DPP - Broncos lose second straight game - Mike Klis

DPP - Paige: Whose stadium is this, anyway?
"Sick effort, Denver. If you don't want your tickets, at least scalp them to people who bleed orange, blue, mustard and brown."

DPP - Krieger: Bullying tactics bother Broncos
"The team that outscored opponents 76-10 in the second half has been outscored 45-14 in the past two second halves."

SI - Steelers hard to beat when firing on all cylinders - Ross Tucker
"The Broncos may have lost the game, but they went toe-to-toe with the defending Super Bowl champs for 53 minutes before caving in the final minutes. The Broncos will be a factor for the rest of this season and likely in the playoffs, as well."

DB - Steelers Postgame: Orton - Broncos TV

NFLTA - Steelers vs. Broncos highlights - Video

DPP - Steelers in a rush to harass QB - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Armstrong: Broncos' offense stuck in neutral

DPP - Steelers' Carter shines at safety with Clark out

DPP - A few hurdles to jump - Lindsay Jones

DPP - Steelers 28, Broncos 10: Bests, worsts and breakdown - Lindsay Jones

DPP - Steelers offense enjoys second-half feast - Mike Chambers

DPP - NFL commissioner Goodell lauds Broncos' moves - Mike Klis

CSG - Steelers top Broncos 28-10 - Frank Schwab

CSG - Ramsey: Surprisingly, Broncos QB Orton doesn't hear a boo

CSG - Broncos notes: Orton pick proves costly - Frank Schwab

NFLPA - E. Royal Remains a Playmaker in Denver Despite Changes - Jim Flynn

CBS4 - Elway Remembers Monday Night Shootouts In Denver - Matthew Buettner

AP - Broncos Lose Second Straight, Fall To 6-2 - Arnie Stapleton

FH - Big Ben, Steelers Strike in Second Half - Nancy Gay

FH - No Ryan Clark, but Same Steel Curtain - Nancy Gay

USAT - Steelers pick on Orton, run away with 28-10 'MNF' win - Jarrett Bell

ESPN - Orton, Broncos allowing San Diego back in race - Bill Williamson

DB - Ask Matt Prater...

Steelers News

PPG - Steelers dominate Broncos, 28-10 - Ed Bouchette

PPG - Steelers' Roethlisberger changes game - Ron Cook

PPG - Gerry Dulac's Two-Minute Drill

PPG - Steelers notebook: Tomlin decides to sit Clark - Ed Bouchette

PPG - Steelers' defense leads way - Gene Collier

PTR - Big second half lifts Steelers to MNF victory - Scott Brown

PTR - Harris: In football vs. life decision, life wins

SN - Steelers aren't perfect, but they're getting closer - Dennis Dillon

SN - What We Learned: The Steelers Are Hitting Championship Form - Dennis Dillon

FOX - Steelers are regaining their Super Bowl swagger - Alex Marvez

NYT - Steelers’ Ward Helps Biracial South Korean Youths on Journey Toward Acceptance - John Branch

Redskins News

WP - Injuries compound Redskins' troubles - Rick Maese
"Running back Clinton Portis suffered a concussion in the first quarter, and Zorn said he's doubtful for this weekend's game against the Broncos. In addition, second-year safety Chris Horton is out for at least a month, and tackle Mike Williams will miss the next couple of games. "

WP - Redskins once again have trouble on the offensive line - Rick Maese

FH - Larry Johnson Released, Redskins Already Expressing Interest - Will Brinson

AFC West News

KCS - Chiefs decide to release Larry Johnson - Adam Teicher

KCS - Chiefs turn their back on LJ, who didn't carry team's respect - Joe Posnanski

KCS - Johnson’s legacy with Chiefs not the one he wanted - Kent Babb

KCS - Johnson’s release will cost Chiefs some money - Adam Teicher

KCS - Chiefs will probably use running-back committee to replace Johnson - Adam Teicher

KCS - Holmes left with mixed emotions after Johnson’s exit - Randy Covitz

KCS - Next stop for Johnson could be NFC East - Randy Covitz

PFW - Most likely landing spots for Larry Johnson

KCS - Here’s why one former Chief fears CTE - Pete Grathoff

SDUT - Bolts in better focus - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Phillips shrugs at piling up of sacks - Kevin Acee

SDUT - LT: ‘We finally came together’ - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Rivers scores seminal victory - Nick Canepa

OT - Oakland Raiders' Chaz Schilens eyes his 2009 debut vs. Kansas City Chiefs - Steve Corkran

NFL News

PFW - Week 10 matchup tidbits

NFL Opinion

NFP - Lovie, McCarthy are at a crossroads - Matt Bowen

NFP - The Monday tavern - Mike Lombardi

NFL - Separation among top contenders starts to crystallize - Mike Lombardi

FOX - The Day After: Biggest questions at midseason - John Czarnecki

SI - Heated rivals Patriots and Colts battle in Indianapolis Sunday - Dan Shaughnessy

NFP - Will teams copy the Yankees in 2010? - Andrew Brandt
"While most teams are looking to shed players who reach the wrong side of 30, especially at positions that require explosion and speed, the Broncos have been adding them."

CBS - Prisco Grades: Week 9

SN - NFL Power Poll: Jets move up by standing still - Clifton Brown

Poll

How many regular-season wins do you expect out of the 2009 Broncos? (Please check the schedule before you answer!)

9 or fewer

56 votes

10 or 11

330 votes

12 or more

92 votes

478 votes | Poll has closed

Potent Quotables - The Post-Game Media Gathering

John Bena — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 09:33:46 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

about 1 month ago: Denver Broncos Brandon Marshall (15) tackles Pittsburgh Steelers' Troy Polamalu after Polamalu intercepted a pass by Kyle Orton in the fourth quarter of the NFL football game in Denver on Monday, Nov. 9, 2009. The Steelers won 28-10. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

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DENVER BRONCOS HEAD COACH JOSH McDANIELS

General

"Let's start by giving credit to the Steelers. They are certainly a well-coached football team, [Pittsburgh Steelers Head Coach] Mike Tomlin certainly does a good job getting them prepared every week. We knew we would have to play 60 good minutes of football to compete, and had an opportunity to win there at the end. I felt like we did that for a half and then they ultimately took over the game there in the second half and we struggled to do much offensively, struggled to stop them defensively, and really they took over the game there."

On the conservative play calling with 2:47 left in the second quarter

"One of our goals in that situation is to not give it back to a team like Pittsburgh. We wanted to just go ahead and get a first down and take it to the two-minute warning, and then we would go ahead and go into the two-minute offense, which we tried to do and ended up with a negative [yardage] play that killed the drive. We accomplished one thing, we didn't give it back to them with before there was 11-seconds left. We started our two-minute offense with 1:30-1:45 left, which is plenty of time if you run the right way to get down the field and score some points. We would do the same thing again."

On competing against 2 strong defenses the past 2 games

"We certainly haven't run the ball very well the last two weeks, and we had trouble protecting the passer tonight. There is a lot of things that go into that, and that is not just an offensive line thing or a tight end thing, or a running back. All 11 guys on the field have to work together to do that, and we certainly have not done enough the last two weeks offensively to help our team win a lot of games. We are going to need to improve significantly in that area and continue to work hard and get better."

On Pittsburgh offensive adjustments after half

"I know they ran a little no-huddle deal which wasn't too fast in terms of their tempo. They tried to pick the tempo up somewhat doing that. They also ran the ball effectively as the game wore on, maybe more in the fourth-quarter than anything. They were trying to throw some short passes there in the third quarter, get some things going, get some momentum, get some rhythm. They accomplished that. We tried to come after them a few times. We got to them the one, right there in the first drive. Ultimately [Pittsburgh Steelers QB] Ben Roethlisberger did a nice job of getting the ball to people that needed it, and they stayed balanced, we didn't. We became one dimensional, they didn't. In a game like that that is close, 7-3, 10-7 in the third quarter you need to be able to have effective balance, we didn't and they did and I think that was a really big key to the game. "

On Denver Broncos T Tyler Polumbus

"I thought Tyler hung in there pretty good. He is playing against two really good football players. That was part of our game plan, some of that was for him, some of that was by design for another part of the scheme. We expect him to go in there and play well and sometimes he had help, and sometimes he didn't."

On how to achieve balance with the quarterback

"There's no shortcut to it. We have to work hard at getting ourselves to run the ball better and be more effective running the football and staying out of third and long, which we were in a lot today. That alone will allow us to stay balanced. And if we can maintain our balance with some of the play action passes that worked early in the game the first half I think had more merit to run later in the game but once you fall behind and you really become a one-dimensional offense that is a difficult task to try and overcome and do some of those things because the defense is not going to honor them. We have to go back to work on Wednesday, we've got to get the running game going. We've got a lot of things to do better though, it's not just the running game."

On P Mitch Berger

"We'll take a look at the film and see if there is anything. I know there were a couple of short punts there. I know he did good things tonight, too. Punted some directionally that we wanted directional punted. We'll take a look at everything tomorrow morning."

On QB Kyle Orton

"He started well, obviously. He did a lot of good things. I think once the game became a one-dimensional game we had a lot of players that I don't believe really played as well as we would've liked. It became much more of a passing game than we wanted this to become. I think we only ran the ball fourteen times so anytime you're going to put the game in the quarterbacks hands against a defense like that who does a great job of attacking protections, pressuring the middle of the pocket, which they did and seemingly on a consistent basis tonight you're going to have trouble regardless. We have to do a better job of making sure that we don't put that kind of pressure on our pass protection, on our quarterback by maintaining our balance and we didn't do a very good job of that tonight."

On Pittsburgh's defense

"They are an extremely well-coached football team and I think you're always going to see something different. This is the National Football League and ultimately they designed their pressures and they designed defenses and their disguises to try to combat what we're doing, most of which we have blocked before and seen before. They did a better job of executing it than we did on offense. Give them credit, they deserve it they played much better than we did for sixty minutes. We've got a lot of work to do."

BRONCOS QB KYLE ORTON

On his first interception of the game

"They ran a blitz where the nose tackle kind of peeled off and relayed to the halfback. As I was getting ready to throw it, the nose tackle kind of bumped (RB) Knowshon (Moreno) off the route, and it led to the pick."

On the running game being limited in the last two contests

"We would love to be balanced, but we feel like we have got a good pass game. If it comes to throwing the ball 40 times, we have won that way in the past, and we should be able to do it in the future."

On the offense's performance at Baltimore and against Pittsburgh

"We got beat the last two games, and you win and lose as a team. Certainly, that means the offense isn't doing their part, as well. We had a great week of practice. We really did. I think everybody came and was focused and dedicated. I am sure we will get the same amount of effort this week in practice. We lost to two good football teams. They beat us. (We will) move on and get ready for Washington."

On the offensive struggles at Baltimore and against Pittsburgh

"They are two good defenses, and certainly, when you play those guys, the margin for error is very small. You have got to get all 11 guys on the same page and execute for 10, 11 full plays in a row. We haven't been able to do that for one reason or the other, and we have got to get it back on track. As a quarterback, I put it on myself. It is my offense, and I will get it back on track."

On the locker room following tonight's loss to Pittsburgh

"Certainly, (we are) not (in) panic mode. We are in first place of the AFC West (and) lost to two good football teams that outplayed us for 60 minutes both times. I just think we responded very well throughout the week last week after a loss. (We) practiced very well (and) prepared very well. Unfortunately, it didn't turn out to a victory for us this week, but I just feel as long as we come back and prepare that way, get back to work (and) get back on track. We have got a big game at Washington, and it is going to be a big one for us. Hopefully, we will go out and play better and get a win."

BRONCOS OLB/DE ROBERT AYERS

On if the game plans of Baltimore and Pittsburgh were similar

"Not really, the things we saw them do on film were the same things they (Baltimore) did against us. They executed and made the plays when they needed to make them and that's the reason why they won."

On the defensive performance

"Yeah, we made some plays. They made some plays against us but the plays aren't what wins the game, it's the final score. They did a good job, they scored more points and did what they needed to do, that's all that matters. Big plays are big plays but at the end of the game who has the most points is what's most important."

On rebounding after consecutive losses

"We just can't listen to all this stuff, good teams recover from things like this. You bounce back from adversity and that is all you can do is come back on Wednesday and practice hard and correct our mistakes. We need to get better from there and get ready for Washington and that's all we can do."

BRONCOS WR BRANDON STOKLEY

On Pittsburgh defense

"They are a good defensive team. We were able to move the ball pretty good in the first half, we just didn't finish drives off and that's what you've got to do against a good team, put points on the board and we were never able to do that."

On making offensive adjustments

"Well, they're a good football team. They throw a lot of things at you and try to confuse you. Hats off to them, they did a good job tonight. But like I said, we've just got to finish drives off with touchdowns and put points on the board. We just weren't able to do that tonight."

On second half troubles

"We've played good teams and we didn't execute very well in the second halves of both games (Pittsburgh and Baltimore). That's what happens when you play good teams and you don't play very well."

BRONCOS DL KENNY PETERSON

On forcing a third quarter fumble

"Anytime you go out there, you try to get to the quarterback and make a play. It just happens that I read my guard pretty well and beat him on a play and had an opportunity at the ball."

On what went wrong after the forced fumble

"They just outplayed us. There is a reason why they are the defending Super Bowl champions. It's unfortunate that we couldn't capitalize on some of the plays that we made. Hats off to Pittsburgh, they played a good game."

On difficulties facing no huddle offenses

"Absolutely not, it's no problem. Like I said, they made plays and that's what the game is about, making plays and that's what they did. They beat us in all phases of the game."

WR JABAR GAFFNEY

On the loss

"We are disappointed with the two losses, but we are still in first place now. We had a chance to do some nice things out there tonight, but we still have a long season to go and we are not going to panic and try to get it fixed."

On offensive struggles

"It is different things every time, between poor execution and drops. Whatever the case is, we have to stop it. The defense has been playing good, but we've been having them on the field too much."

CB ANDRE GOODMAN

On the loss

"There is no panic here and we just have to get back to the drawing board and do what we have to do to make those proper adjustments. We have to get back to getting off the field on third down in the second half, which we did a good job of in the first six games."

On the defense

"Sixty minutes, we can play Fifty great minutes of defense but if we don't play for Sixty minutes then it really doesn't matter. We got a timely turnover in the red zone and took advantage of that, but they came back in the very next series and scored a touchdown with a lot of big plays, and the staple of our defense has been not giving up big plays. I think they did a great job in both the passing and running game, but that is the reason they are champs. They know how to make their adjustments in the game and if we are going to compete with the heavy weights then we have to learn how to make those adjustments"

On the loss

"It is not tough at all; it is just about doing our jobs. If you told us at the half way point we would be 6-2 most guys would be happy with that. It is just the way that these last two weeks have went, that is kind of disheartening. Both losses have come against the same division and the same type of team which are both playoff teams from last year."

ILB ANDRA DAVIS

On the Steelers halftime adjustments

"They made some really good adjustments and we really did not have an answer for them. We also did not execute what we were supposed to do. We are not going to get down; we are 6-2 and have a lot of ball to play. We are going to stay positive, and we are still in first place in our division and have 8 more games left. We are going to continue to encourage each other, and play hard for one another and get back on the winning track"

CB TY LAW

On matching up with WR Hines Ward

"That is what they brought me in for. I just had to do what I do and stick to what I know. I wasn't trying to get to fancy. I was just trying go out there and do the best that I can on such short notice. Overall I am pretty happy with how I did, but I think that I could have done better. I know I can do better, and of course it is a disappointing loss. Once I get a couple of games under my belt, I think I will be able to help the team."

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:30:25 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

about 1 month ago: Baltimore Ravens cornerback Lardarius Webb, left, carries the ball for a touchdown as Denver Broncos safety David Bruton pursues during the third quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2009, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, if you can manage one. Welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Well, this was bound to happen, right? Since Sunday afternoon, I have been thinking about what the right tone is to take with this week's ST&NO. I still haven't decided, and it's Monday at 5 PM as I write this paragraph. I guess I am just going to go with it, and play it like it feels. We had an ugly loss, and to top it off, there were only 4 late games, and no Sunday night game, so I didn't see a lot of live football, at all. We'll make do, because that's all we can do. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire y'all. Ready.... BEGIN!!!!

1. The two plays which set the tone for yesterday's game happened at the beginning of each half. On the Broncos' first play from scrimmage, Jarret Johnson came in untouched and unrecognized off the defense's left side, and creamed Kyle Orton for a big loss. As I watched the play happen, I couldn't help but think that the Broncos may not be well-prepared if they weren't expecting a lot of blitzing.

As the second half got underway, Lardarius Webb took the opening kickoff back 95 yards for a TD. That took a manageable 6-0 halftime deficit to 13-0, and essentially dictated that the Broncos start playing come-from-behind football. You see the picture of this play, and I used it because it sticks in my craw (whatever a craw is), and I want it stick in yours, too. I guarantee it bothers the coaches and players. You can't have that happen and expect to win.

The final score, 30-7, sounds like a blowout, but this game wasn't really that. This game swung on field position, and third-down performance, which was directly driven by down-and-distance situations. The Ravens made key plays on 3rd down, and the Broncos missed opportunities to make those plays.

There's an offensive concept called staying on schedule, and it means that from first and 10, you get to 2nd and 6, and then to 3rd and 2. All your down-and-distance situations are manageable if you stay on schedule. It's a really good thing to do every game, but it's absolutely imperative against a team like Baltimore, which can bring a bunch of overload pressure and force a QB to either throw way short of the first down or eat the ball.

Actually, the Broncos did a great job throughout the game with first-down defense, and getting Baltimore off schedule themselves. The Ravens, though, led by Joe Flacco, made enough plays to negate those early-down advantages.

The world didn't end, and all we can hope is that some lessons are learned from the experience by the players and coaches, and that those lessons are applied to future situations. Sometimes a loss is a growth opportunity, and I think that there is a solid reson to think that this loss was one of those.

2. Information From My Eyes. Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens:

a. I thought Mitch Berger was awul on Sunday, despite Josh McDaniels' charitable comments about his performance. Hang time is fine, but I want changes in field position. The Broncos lost the field position game the whole first half, in large part because of bad punting.

b. I disliked the offensive game plan and the play calling. The 3rd-and-5 sweep for Correll Buckhalter on the second series is an example. I thought there were too many screens against a team which clearly came to stop the screen. I wanted to see more use of Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal agains the Baltimore CBs, and I am perplexed as to why we didn't get more of that.

c. I was really pleased with the way that Mario Haggan was consistently setting the edge in this game. He has a physical style of play which is perfect for the position he plays. It's pretty shocking that he was basically a special teamer only in Buffalo, because he's a top-notch 3-4 OLB.

d. I don't blame Knowshon Moreno very much for the fumble (this time). That play was doomed from the start, with Jarret Johnson forcing a high throw and tough catch, and Moreno turning right into a thumping from Ed Reed.

e. Andra Davis is playing at a Pro Bowl level this season, when he is on the field. He plays downhill all the time and has a great sense of timing with the snap count. The great thing about him is that he seems to be cool with coming off the field on 3rd downs, and letting Wesley Woodyard play the long-yardage situations, which Woodyard's much better suited for.

f. There was a lot of dancing by Brandon Marshall on his four catches. I'd like to see him get upfield quicker after the catch. I'd also like to see him use his physicality to get open on some downfield stuff.

g. I was tired by 10:30 Monday night, when I re-watched this game, so I didn't tally anything, but anecdotally, the screen game was a complete disaster on offense for the Broncos.

h. Kyle Orton had two easy interceptions dropped in this game. One was on a play where he got crushed and the ball came out weakly, and the other was a terrible decision, with Jarret Johnson sitting in an underneath zone, and Dawan Landry right behind him. Orton needs to play better than he did Sunday, like the rest of the offense.

i. With the score 16-7 early in the 4th quarter, the Broncos had Baltimore in a 3rd and 12 near midfield. On consecutive plays, Elvis Dumervil and Darrell Reid jumped offsides. On the resulting 3rd and 2, Flacco escaped pressure and made a downfield throw to Derrick Mason. This basically ended the game, because soon after, Mason scored to make the score 23-7.

j. Renaldo Hill looked out of position on the aforementioned Mason TD. Andre' Goodman had outside leverage on the play, with good coverage, really, but Hill never got over the top to help him. He may have seen something that kept him in the shallow middle; but it was a bust, clear as day, because Brian Dawkins played the coverage like he had a deep half on the other side. Credit Flacco for seeing the blown coverage and making a perfect throw.

k. From the Ravens' side, I liked their use of the no-huddle stuff, and their attempts to vary tempo. The Broncos substitute very liberally, and are one of the most package-intensive defenses in the NFL. By having to hesitate on substituting at times, they assumed a disadvantaged position against the Ravens. Really, I think that the lack of freshness of some players, who had larger than usual workloads, is a lot of what got them in the 4th quarter.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games:

a. As I mentioned, I didn't see a lot of other live games, since most ran at the same time as the Broncos game. To make up for that, I recorded some Short Cuts Sunday night, and hurried home from Day 1 of month-end close Monday to watch them. I started with the Jets and Dolphins, and my first (Nearsighted) Observation is that the Jets played a dominant game on defense, which surprised me a little. I thought they'd miss Kris Jenkins a lot more than they seemed to, especially with all the Wildcat stuff going on. The Jets held the Dolphins to 104 total yards, 52 each passing and rushing.

b. It's really something to score 30 points with 104 yards of offense. Jason Taylor got a fumble recovery for a TD and Ted Ginn returned two kickoffs. I have highlighted Ginn's lack of suddenness before - but let me tell you, when he gets going, he's as fast as anybody in the NFL. He outran players who had good angles on both TD returns. He may never be a top WR, but he's elite as a kickoff returner.

c. I think Thomas Jones is the most underrated player in the NFL. He started slow in the NFL, largely due to his being drafted by a horrible Arizona Cardinals team, but once he got it going in Tampa Bay, he's been a consistently productive player. He's on pace for 1,400 yards and 14 TDs this season, and is a big part of the Jets' success on offense.

d. The most overrated player has to be Jason Peters, just ahead of Alan Faneca and Flozell Adams. The bloom is mostly off the Faneca and Adams roses, at this point, but Peters still gets a lot of love from the MSM. I have just seen him get beat too many times the last two years, and the jury is in for me. He looks like he'd make a good Right Tackle, but on the left side, he gets beaten constantly by quick pass rushers. Osi Umenyiora owned him several times on Sunday.

e. DeSean Jackson is already a great player, and he's improving. He needs to be played physically, because if you let him run free through a defense, he's going to shred you. He's not really a true number-one receiver, who's going to defeat double coverage, but he's a dynamic outside guy.

f. The Eagles have a pretty fearsome passing game, when their line isn't getting Donovan McNabb sacked. Jeremy Maclin is having a solid rookie year, but I'm especially impressed with Brent Celek, who does a great job of catching the ball in traffic. He's now on pace for over 1,000 receiving yards this season. Celek isn't much of a blocker, really, but he even had a good hold that didn't get called on Sunday, helping spring Leonard Weaver's long TD run.

g. ST&NO favorite Alex Smith had a pretty nice game on Sunday against Indianapolis. He looks really comfortable in the shotgun, and led a great hurry-up TD drive at the end of the first half. For his part, Smith looked good for most of the game. The 49ers offense just repeatedly found ways to take bad penalties or give up sacks, (especially in the second half, after Joe Staley got hurt), which kept stopping the offense. Smith is showing a good rapport with Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree, who looks like the real deal, already, two weeks into his career.

h. Peyton Manning was a little off on Sunday with his deep ball. That happens so infrequently that I thought it was worth highlighting.

i. I still can't figure out why the Colts cut Ed Johnson a couple weeks ago. They're very vulnerable to the inside running game without him. The Colts brass said the release was performance-related, but I don't buy that for a second. Johnson was definitely their best DT.

j. Very interesting news Monday evening that the Chargers had released Chris Chambers. He has been struggling to get the separation he used to get, but waiving him seems like a pretty extreme measure. You can't tell me that he couldn't beat nickel or dime CBs against most teams. I'd be very surprised if he isn't on a new team very quickly.

k. The Raiders had a legitimate shot to drive to a tying TD and 2-point conversion in the final minutes of Sunday's game against the Chargers. Then, something completely emblematic of the Raiders happened. Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey lined up on the offense's right side, and both ran vertical routes against man coverage. The inside receiver released outside of the DB covering him, and the outside receiver released inside. They bumped into each other, and both fell down. JaMarcus Russell had nowhere to throw the ball and got sacked, despite a 7-step drop and max protection on the play. The game was functionally over at that point.

l. Aaron Rodgers got beaten up mercilessly again on Sunday, particularly early in the game. I actually thought T.J. Lang was generally pretty solid at LT, but Jared Allen still got 3 sacks. He now has 7.5 sacks in 2 games against Green Bay this year, which is like giving him a handicap in the sack race with Elvis Dumervil.

m. I really thought that Arizona had gotten their act together, but they got hammered by Carolina on Sunday. They went into the game with the number-one run defense in the NFL, and then got run over by DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. I think it was an aberration, but that remains to be seen.

n. I've never liked Matt Ryan's arm much, and Monday night reinforced that feeling for me. Because the Falcons have a below-average line in pass protection, they max-protect a lot, leaving few receivers in the pattern. If the coverage is tight, as it was Monday, Ryan always seems to struggle to make throws to beat the coverage. He's really not too dissimilar to Kyle Orton in that way, though Orton throws the ball with more velocity. Ryan needs to have a lot of options, where he can pick a guy who is open. For that reason, Atlanta needs to focus on building their offensive line. Sam Baker, particularly, isn't good enough at LT, and would make a better LG. Baker got annihilated by Will Smith throughout Monday night's game.

o. My man Thomas DeCoud was at it again for the Falcons on Monday night. He had a sack that forced a TD in the first quarter. This guy is a big-time young player.

p. Jeff Triplette is the worst referee in the NFL, and it's not even close. He just couldn't figure out the clock on Monday night, and he has no command with the crowd. It always seems like he lets them rattle him. When you're a referee, a sheepish smile is a bad thing. You need to command the stadium, like Ed Hochuli and Mike Carey do. Gene Steratore is a good younger referee, too.

r. Marques Colston is having a fantastic year for the Saints. Prior to this year, I've always thought of him as a fairly-average starting WR who has benfitted from strong QB play, and a friendly system. I really see him winning a lot of one-on-one battles with his physicality now. He was targeted 6 times Monday night, and made 6 catches for 85 yards and a TD. He really battled for the ball on a few of those catches, including the TD.

4. Between The Lines, Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens

a. The Broncos had a very bad day in protection, and there's no way to sugarcoat that. The Ravens blitzed more often than what it seemed the Broncos were prepared for. Ryan Clady got beaten twice, which is twice more than usual, and got Orton hit. He was otherwise his normal self. The rag-doll was Ben Hamilton. I am getting tired of writing that every week, but if he's going to get his butt kicked, I'll keep writing it. Old friend Trevor Pryce destroyed Hamilton all game. Casey Wiegmann had his worst game of the year too, with Kelly Gregg beating him more often than not. I was pleased with Chris Kuper's play against Haloti Ngata, and I thought Tyler Polumbus did a very nice job filling in for Ryan Harris. The Broncos got Orton sacked twice (once by a DB) and pressured many more times than that. The passing game was a clear win for the Ravens defensive line.

b. The running aspect was actually better for the Broncos. They picked up a couple of 3rd and shorts, which was nice for a change, and generally held the line of scrimmage, and got a bit of surge against an excellent group for Baltimore. The only notable running play which was blown up was the 3rd-and-5 sweep. I liked the work of Clady and Kuper, and everybody was actually pretty solid in the running game. The Broncos only ran for 3.5 yards per carry - but against Baltimore, that's pretty solid. This was a draw, but one the Broncos would have been happy with if they'd protected better.

c. The Broncos did a good job pressuring Flacco throughout the game, and were beaten by some great throws and poise. These things happen. Jared Gaither held Elvis Dumervil repeatedly, but he didn't get penalized, so kudos to him, if he likes granola bars. Ben Grubbs and Michael Oher, the two best players on the Baltimore line, had good days, and the two weakest, Matt Birk and Chris Chester, didn't so much. A lot of the Broncos' pressure came from the Back 8, which is typical of them. The Ravens allowed a lot of pressure, but much like Ben Roethlisberger, Flacco showed a really good ability to evade the pressure, and make plays in spite of it.

d. The Broncos defense won big in the running game, until the last 10 minutes of the game, when it seemed like they wore down. The Broncos had 10 tackles for loss, which is the kind of performance that typically wins games. Unfortunately, Flacco's big plays negated a lot of this good work. When you consider it separately though, the Broncos won this battle for most of the game. Notable Broncos were Ronald Fields, Kenny Peterson, and Marcus Thomas. Ryan McBean got some penetration too, and Le Kevin Smith made a good play, also.

e. Overall, you have to give an edge to Baltimore, for how well they pressured Kyle Orton. It was the primary reason the Broncos never got untracked on offense. The Broncos did a more-than-respectable job in the other phases, though.

5. Word broke on Monday that the Browns had fired General Manager George Kokinis. I really can't imagine why they'd want to do that. Reportedly, Randy Lerner is displeased that Kokinis didn't take an active role in speaking to the media and communicating to the outside world. If that's really the problem, then I think it's clear that Lerner doesn't get professional football. During the season, the GM needs to be quiet and let the Head Coach be the voice of the team. This is the way it works everywhere, even a place like Baltimore, where GM Ozzie Newsome is the top football guy in the organization. That's where Kokinis came from.

Here in Cleveland, the Browns organization is really far too worried about public opinion. Remember how the Broncos organization ignored the DP message boards all offseason, and then the booing at the scrimmage? You have to do that, or you'll never get going in a coherent direction. I don't know if the Mangini plan is the right one, but it seems that Randy Lerner just canceled it before it even had half a season to work. Rumor has it that Lerner is trying to bring in Ernie Accorsi to join Bernie Kosar as a consultant. As respected as Accorsi is, this sounds like Lerner already blew the situation.

Phil Savage, who is still being paid for the next 3 1/2 years, had some interesting comments this past week. He said that the previous regime left this one with two quarterbacks, and that both of them look ruined at this point. The Browns will almost certainly be in the drafting-a-QB business again this coming spring, and that typically signals another full deep dive into rebuilding. While they're at it, they need a right side of the offensive line, two RBs, a WR, and a TE. Then they can turn their attention to the defense, which is currently solid enough to be part of a .500 team.

The team, led by Lerner, needs to definitively figure out what they want to be. They need to then formulate a plan to become that, and start executing the plan. Most importantly, though, they have to try to clearly articulate that plan to their stakeholders, and then prepare to stick to that plan, no matter what Joe in Berea, or Stanislaus in West Park have to say on the radio. You have to build your program, and winning will follow. As we all know, winning is the great deodorant.

More month-end closing activities are ahead for me this week. It seems like just last week I was closing September and complaining here about how busy I am. Now, it returns. The good news is that I will have a full Sunday of game-watching and channel-flipping next weekend, so expect a more-robust set of games which I'll be commenting on. Have a great week, friends, and remember to visit MileHighReport.com every day, for all your Broncos news and analysis.

Broncos Thoughts and Musings - A look back at Chargers Week

Emmett Smith — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 17:00:30 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

about 1 month ago: Denver Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno, center, goes over the top of San Diego Chargers linebackers Tim Dobbins (51) and Stephen Cooper (54) while gaining two yards for a first down in the third quarter of the NFL football game Monday, Oct. 19, 2009 in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

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Having taken a 'bye' week of my own, I thought that I'd put together a few musings for the general group. Before getting into the meat of this week's offering, though, I'd like to take a minute to mention a phenomena that has been showing its ugly face around Broncos Country. I'm talking about the problems of our fans having a 'Shanahangover': the sinking belief that the issues of the past years, in which the Broncos look good enough to fool us and lull us into a state of complacency before succumbing to a massive blowout (often to an inferior team) and shattering our dreams, could resurface in 2009. It's a dangerous disease, but fatal only to those who believe that this year's team has something in common with the teams of the past - notably, the past three seasons. Time will tell, but I don't see this happening any longer.

I've read this from a few of the members and in other blogs and sites: "The Broncos have fooled us before." It's true, too, but that was before a new sheriff, deputy, posse, marksman and scouts came into the picture. No matter what you've seen in the past, this team has little or nothing to do with the Ghosts of Seasons Past. The improvement in the coaching, performance of players, attitude and execution is light years beyond what we as fans are used to. Whether it's our team or another, living in the past is an exercise in misunderstanding the present. This is not last year's Broncos. It's a whole new experience.

As an example, Arrowhead Stadium is likely to be a tough place to win; but it's not because the Broncos haven't played well there in the past. They often didn't, but that's not a matter for this year's team. It's a windswept, loud, raucous place to play. It's hard to hear signals if the place is full and I don't take any game lightly, particularly a division rival. While I do think that the Chiefs are in early stages of an upswing, I'm not at all concerned that they're better than Denver or that they will beat us, even in their own house. Our veterans aren't going to take games off and they're not going to let the younger players take anyone lightly. If the Broncos play anywhere near their skill level, they're just too good for most teams. We've got a lot of great contests coming up, but one thing that doesn't concern me at all is the possibility that we will revert to the habits of seasons past. It's not going to happen, so put it out of your mind.

Charging into the Future

Before the Monday Night Football game that extended the Broncos' record to 6-0, Chargers TE Antonio Gates said, "One thing that gives us a chance is that we're still in the hunt in the AFC West. We never said it had to be pretty, and it wasn't pretty last year." After the game, it was a lot uglier. If Gates believes that the Chargers are still in the hunt, he needs to define his terms pretty quickly.

"It's tough to always be in this situation," Gates said afterward. "We didn't plan on being here. We didn't plan on being 8-8 last year either. But here we are. We have to keep working, or it could snowball and turn into a losing streak."

"We didn't plan on getting here." If there are words perfectly suited for failure, I think those should be high on the list. "We didn't plan on being here." Yes, that about covers it.

Bear in mind that they also didn't plan well enough to avoid it. They didn't run the extra sprints that the Broncos endured to get in better shape than their opponents. They didn't make the personnel moves that the Broncos did, realizing that no matter how good you were supposed to be, an 8-8 record will rarely get you into the postseason. They didn't identify the weaknesses that they had, nor the ones that could arise with age, injury and contract status. They didn't do enough to prepare themselves for the fact that Shawne Merriman was very unlikely to have a great year this year. Few will, after the kind of surgery that he had. In short - they didn't plan to succeed, either.

I'm sympathetic to their injury issues among linemen. That's tough and often unpredictable. But even there - is it a shock that Jamal Williams (who's had more surgeries than an aging Hollywood ingenue) would start to break down? Nick Hardwick has had a lot of injuries, plenty of surgeries (and I thought that Scott Mruczkowski did a very good job until Mike Nolan outfoxed him). Igor Olshansky was going to be gone. I wrote last spring about the issues that the Chargers were going to be experiencing, and I'm no expert. So, what happened?

Three things, I'd argue, and all are common: arrogance, lassitude and reversion to the mean. Arrogance in this case includes believing that you can start out poorly season after season and still make up the ground - the continuing decline of their schedule argues against that. But the arrogance also includes the behavior of individuals, including fighting within the team that is seen in public. Then there's lassitude, as in admitting, as A.J. Smith did last February, that the Chargers' woes were in great part on him but not doing more about it. And reversion to the mean: this is a team that has been heading for mediocrity (and how obvious can that be, after going 8-8?) for some time. It needed major help, and it got a few band-aids.

I loved the Kevin Burnett pickup, and it's just bad fortune that he's hurt. I liked the Larry English draft pick, and he's getting there. I also liked the Louis Vasquez draft pick, and he's developing quickly. I can't even fathom the Kynan Forney (who's since been released) or Travis Johnson pickups, though. The Bolts tended to stand pat with a suspect secondary, didn't develop their depth and accepted on faith that bad performances were anomalies instead of facts. It bought them a game in which a stellar performance by Philip Rivers wasn't enough, in which Nolan and McDaniels out-coached Ron Rivera and Norv Turner and in which the best the Chargers could bring wasn't close to enough.

There will, as Merriman pointed out, be a rematch. I look forward to it, and I'm sure the Broncos do. Stating before the game that 'the Broncos can't stop me' wasn't Rivers' smartest move. Claiming that they will get revenge after the game wasn't Merriman's, but I do appreciate the help those things gave Denver. If the Broncos needed any aid in getting up for the home half of this series, which I greatly doubt, they won't after that night's statements.

Arrogance...some things don't change.

Losing the Locker Room

That same arrogance has infected the locker room and the very attitude of the Chargers. You could see in a single moment why the Chargers have problems with their team very clearly during the first quarter of the Monday night game. The Chargers bogged down at the goal line - LaDainian Tomlinson was stopped short of the goal line twice. They took him out on the third play and put in Darren Sproles, trying to take advantage of a seam that Turner had seen. Tomlinson paced the sidelines, obviously complaining bitterly about not being in. The Broncos stopped Sproles and the Bolts short again, and they settled for kicking the FG.

It got me to thinking. Last year at this time, the Chargers were starting slow, appeared unmotivated and perhaps even ill-prepared. Tomlinson was also complaining - about the play calling, the offensive line, and not getting enough carries. Now, imagine that he was in orange and blue. How likely is it that a Bronco would do that - two years running? If you consider that Turner's team has gone from 14-2 before he arrived, to slow starts three years running, you start to see why that might be true. Players fight with management in the media. The GM insults his team, as A.J. Smith did by calling their play 'soft'. Nowhere is there a sign that adults are in charge. Merriman has a public feud with Smith, dating back a couple of seasons. Smith doesn't like his side jobs, feeling that it takes away from the team. LDT fights with Turner, expresses his feelings and tussles with Smith this past offseason, very publicly. Smith gets quickly pulled into it. No one wins.

This past week, it was wide receiver Chris Chambers. A non-factor for quite a while now, he was complaining to the press that his snaps are being taken by Malcolm Floyd. I don't know what he expected - he's not gaining separation, he's not getting open and he hasn't shown a ton of skill at fighting for the ball. But he's still touting himself as if it were three seasons ago and he was doing good things. It's the kind of thing that you're not seeing from the Broncos, the kind of thing that tells you when a franchise is in disarray.

I can't even express my gratitude for the fact that Josh McDaniels has very good management skills. He won't carry arguments into the media, rarely gets flustered and keeps things behind closed doors. I've fired people for the kinds of destructive behavior that I've seen from the Chargers over the past two years. Those who claim that this is football and that it's really okay to have things this way should consider how the Broncos do handle things -- and how their team acts and plays. As in, as a unit. As a real team, one that's going good places. It matters. Once in a while, a dysfunctional team has a good year. Most of the time, though, they flame out, and the talent levels don't matter enough to get them where they want to go. That's happening in San Diego, and while it's good for the Broncos, it's an obvious sign of the Bolts organization needing a makeover.

Asked before the MNF debacle, LDT was asked what he saw in the Charger's locker room. "It's a quiet confidence. You look in each man's eyes in that locker room, you can tell there is something extra."

Did they also see that you'd be pacing the sidelines, yelling and pouting, LDT? Perhaps not. That's one reason that the Chargers are 3 games back. Even worse for the Bolts and better for the Broncos, LDT hasn't been alone.

Beating Kansas City has given the Bolts a brief respite, but that's hardly a road back into the land of the competitive. While I do think that the Denver game as been a wakeup call of Shakespearean proportions for San Diego, their problems run too deep to permit them to make the late season run this year profitable. The game in Denver will be a grudge match. Given the state of the raiders and Chiefs, that's a good thing. It may keep thing much more interesting.

Some Other Stats that Matter (With apologies to Lebowski)

What did the Broncos do right so far this year? It's a long list, but try these perspectives on the rushing game:

Stuffs per carry - Correll Buckhalter, 4th, at 0.043 Knowshon Moreno at 9th, with 0.061
Stuffed: Best in league - It only happened on 8 plays. Despite the issues that can improve in short yardage, the problem isn't with negative plays.
YPC: Buck, 1st, 6.7 Broncos 11th, 4.3
Yards: Broncos 7th, 798
Big play rushes: tied for 9th, 20
100-yard rushers against: 0
100 yards rushing by opposing teams: 0
Passes dropped, over 6 games: 5. Four of those came in the first two weeks. It's all about doing your job and doing it right.

Let's also look at the percentage of rushing versus passing plays. Going back to the offseason, Doug (nycbroncosfan) and I published the "Divining Josh McDaniels" series. We said at the time that McD had been viewed at being more of a passing kind of guy than he really deserved. It was true when McD was in NE and it is true in Denver. We're in 8th, with 47.7% rushing and therefore 52.3% passing - a very even, balanced attack. Over the last 4 years, McDaniels had averaged 43.1% rushing plays. That seems low, but it's not if you look at how the team was structured. In 2008 that number was 46.8% rushing and that was similar to 2006 as well. On the other years, the passing game was working too well to minimize it. Josh McD believes in maximizing all of your skill sets and using the ones that the defense lets you win with, whether it's the pass or the run. As you would expect, he's attempting to make sure hat both are viable options. It's that simple. By getting Moreno, Buckhalter, Orton, the O-line and the receiving corps, he can go either way with complete confidence. That makes it very hard to stop the Broncos' offense.

You might also look at how the aging, decrepit defensive secondary is doing. Teams have been challenging Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins and getting their hats handed to them. Take a look at these stats: Bailey is tied for 2nd in the league with 8 passes defensed; Dawkins is tied for 11th with 6.

The Broncos have two players in the top 11 in the NFL in passes defensed -- and both players are over 30. That's a stat that not a lot of casual fans follow, but it tells you a lot about a team. It tells you that the Broncos have age, wisdom and maturity in the defensive secondary. Experienced players know how to communicate and that skill is constantly undervalued. It also tells you that those who believe that Champ Bailey, Andre' Goodman, Brian Dawkins and Renaldo Hill are 'losing a step' need to find their argument. Dawkins and Bailey are among the league leaders and are getting some payback on the 'lost a step' crowd. Andre' Goodman and Renaldo Hill are playing the best ball of their careers. The young guys, Alphonso Smith and Jack Williams, are also paying well and Darcel McBath has already shown why we drafted him on defense as well as by leading the team on special-teams tackles.

I'll be back later today with more Thoughts and Musings...

Denver Broncos 34 - San Diego Chargers 23 - Final Game Notes

John Bena — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 05:15:57 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

about 1 month ago: Denver Broncos tight end Tony Scheffler pulls in a 19-yard touchdown pass San Diego Chargers Eric Weddle (32) tries to defend during the third quarter of the NFL football game Monday, Oct. 19, 2009 in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

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McDaniels Leads Broncos to 6-0 Start

With the win over the San Diego Chargers on Monday Night Football, Denver Broncos Head Coach Josh McDaniels became the fourth rookie head coach in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) to start 6-0. He joins Red Miller (1977) as only the second head coach in Denver history to win his first six games with the club.

ROOKIE HEAD COACHES TO START 6-0 OR BETTER, NFL, SUPER BOWL ERA (SINCE 1966)

Coach	Year	Started	Finished	Playoffs
Josh McDaniels, Den.	2009	6-0	TBD	TBD
Mike Martz, Stl.	2000	6-0	10-6	Wild Card
Red Miller, Den.	1977	6-0	12-2	Super Bowl XII
Chuck Knox, L.A. Rams	1973	6-0	12-2	Divisional Playoffs

ROYAL’S RETURN TOUCHDOWNS HELP FUEL DENVER

WR Eddie Royal became the second Bronco and just the 11th player in league history to record a kickoff return for a touchdown (93 yds. in first quarter) and a punt return for a touchdown (71 yds. in second quarter) in the same game. Royal is the sixth player to accomplish the feat since the 1970 NFL merger. Former Broncos HB Al Frazier had a kickoff return (90 yds.) and a punt return (55 yds.) for a score in the same game vs. Boston on Dec. 3, 1961.

KICKOFF RETURN TD AND PUNT RETURN TD IN SAME GAME, NFL, SINCE 1970

Player	Opponent (Date)	KO TD	PR TD
Eddie Royal, Den.	at S.D. (10/19/09)	1	1
Dante Hall, K.C.	vs. Stl. (12/8/2002)	1	1
Devin Hester, Chi.	vs. Den. (11/25/2007)	1	1
Michael Lewis, N.O.	at Was. (10/13/2002)	1	1
Eddie Payton, Det.	vs. Min. (12/17/1977)	1	1
Darren Sproles, S.D.	vs. Ind. (11/11/2007)	1	1

Royal’s 93-yard kickoff return for a touchdown in the first quarter was the ninth overall in club history and the first since CB Deltha O’Neal scored on an 87-yard kickoff return vs. New England on Oct. 1, 2000. His 71-yard punt return for a touchdown in the second quarter was the 28th punt return for a score in team history and the first since WR Glenn Martinez scored on an 80-yard punt return vs. Tennessee on Nov. 19, 2007.

The two plays marked the eighth and ninth special-teams return touchdowns by a unit coached by Special Teams Coordinator Mike Priefer (4 KR, 4 PR, 1 Misc.).

LONGEST SCORING KICKOFF RETURNS, BRONCOS HISTORY

	Player	Opponent (Date)	Yards
1.	Nemiah Wilson	at Kansas City (10/8/66)	100
	Goldie Sellers	vs. Houston (10/2/66)	100
3.	Vaughn Hebron	at Miami (12/21/98)	95
4.	Randy Montgomery	at San Diego (9/24/72)	94
5.	Eddie Royal	at San Diego (10/19/09)	93

DUMERVIL TAKES OVER SACK LEAD

With two sacks (7 yds.) against the Chargers, OLB/DE Elvis Dumervilrecorded his fourth multi-sack game of the season and took over the NFL lead with 10 sacks on the year. Dumervil, whose 36 sacks since his rookie season in 2006 are the fourth most in the NFL, has 11 career multi-sack games in the same span that represents the second-best mark in the league.

Dumervil finished five tackles (four solo) and a forced fumble (his second forced fumble of the season and ninth of his career).

DEFENSE DOESN’T ALLOW THIRD-DOWN CONVERSION IN 2nd HALF

The Broncos held the Chargers to 0-of-5 on third downs in the second half and have not allowed a third-down conversion by an opponent in the second half in their last four games (opponents are 2-for-35 on the season – 5.7%).

MISCELLANEOUS GAME NOTES

CB André Goodman recorded his first career sack in the second quarter on a third down that led to Royal’s 1-yard punt return for a touchdown...
CB Champ Bailey led all Denver defenders with seven tackles (all solo) to go along with a pass breakup and a forced fumble...
TE Tony Scheffler (6 rec. 101 yds., TD)recorded his second 100-yard receiving game of his career (7-100, 1 TD at Hou., 12/13/07) and his second touchdown of the season in the third quarter to put the Broncos on top 24-23...
QB Kyle Orton (20-of-29 for 229 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT) finished with a passer rating of 115.4. It marked the third time this year he has recorded a passer rating of 100.0 or higher...
San Diego finished with 73 rushing yards (3.5 avg.). Denver is the only team in the NFL that has not allowed an opponent to rush for 100 yards this season.

Compliments of the Denver Broncos P.R. Staff