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Statistical Review of the 2009 49ers: IX. DF7 and DBs

Florida Danny — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 18:57:01 -0000

Patrick Willis single-handedly destroys the opposition. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

AUTHOR'S NOTE: If you're not already using the wide view of the site, switch to it because 2 of the tables are a little too wide for narrow view.

Welcome back for the 9th (and final) installment of my 2009 Niner stat review. If you missed Parts 1-8, you can read them here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.

Today in Part 9, I'll take a look at the defensive front 7 (DF7) and the secondary. To say that these units were good in 2009 would be an understatement. As I showed my overall DEF review, the 49ers' DEF ranked in the top 8 of every major statistical category provided by Football Outsiders (FO). So, there's no reason for me to rehash the same thing again in a discussion of the individual pieces of their DEF.

Rather, what I'm going to do here is take a look at how the 49ers' great DEF of 2009 was born, and what positions in particular seem to be most important for their overall defensive success. To these ends, I'll present FO's run-stopping and pass-rushing stats for the DF7, as well as DVOA stats against specific types of opposing receivers, and then relate the 2009 stats to the overall defensive performance trends of recent 49er history. From this post, we'll be able to see in a general sense what specific events seem to have had the biggest impact over time, and which players/positions seem to be the most vital.

So, let's begin...

OVERALL RUN-STOPPING STATS

Below are FO's yardage stats for the 49ers' DF7 in 2009, along with those of the average playoff OL and the Super Bowl champs' OL (Top-8 performance in bold; Bottom-8 performance in italics):

DF7	ALY	Rk	RB YPC	Rk	1st Level	Rk	2nd Level	Rk	Open Field	Rk
49ers	3.68	8	3.73	4	2.06	3	1.08	8	0.59	9
Saints	4.28	22	4.51	24	2.52	27	1.10	12	0.89	20
Playoffs	4.00	14.8	4.10	13.4	2.30	15.7	1.13	14.1	0.68	12.0

Not surprisingly, the streak continues. The DF7 was in the top 8 of all yardage-related stats except for Open Field YPC, in which they ranked 9th. This tells us that the DL was filling their gaps, the LBs were making the tackles, and the secondary wasn't allowing big gains. This last part about preventing big gains in the running game is especially important as it was what the average playoff team was best at among the stats above. Clearly, then, the 49ers currently have a playoff-caliber DF7.

After the jump, I'll finish up with the 2009 stats, and move on to a discussion of (a) how all of this defensive awesomeness came to be, and (b) what the trends mean going forward...

Here's how the DF7 did in terms of power-running situations and tackles at or behind the line:

DF7	Power Success Rate	Rk	Stuff Rate	Rk
49ers	64%	16	19%	16
Saints	69%	23	18%	22
Playoffs	60.8%	12.3	18.1%	12.8

Finally, 2 areas in which the Niners' DEF wasn't off-the-charts awesome. However, they don't worry me so much given what the previous table showed us about the DF7's prowess within 5 yards of the line (See 1st Level). Furthermore, given that they were ranked 25th in Power Success Rate as recently as 2007, #16 represents a vast improvement.

One other thing I'll mention here is that this is the second table in a row showing that the Saints' DF7 wasn't all that good; which goes to show you that, although definitely nice, being stout up front on DEF isn't a prerequisite for championship-caliber football.

DIRECTIONAL RUN-STOPPING STATS

In terms of stopping runs in a specific direction, here's my fancy DF7 chart:

Back to our regularly scheduled program. As you can see, the Niners' DF7 was ranked among the top half of the NFL in every run direction. Worthy of note is that they were the best DF7 in the league on runs behind LT. Although it's a bit of an extrapolation, I don't think it's a coincidence that Justin Smith and Patrick Willis are over on that side of the formation.

I also have 2 other things to point out. First, the DF7's Top-10 ALY on runs up the middle seems to lend creedence to the idea - which I already discussed here - that Aubrayo Franklin had a heck of a season. Second, their #9 ALY on runs to the outside right suggests that the run DEF wasn't particularly hurt by getting only half-a-season out of run-stopper extraordinaire, Nate Clements.

More on Smith, Willis, and Clements later.

Moving on to the pass rush, below are the Niner DF7's pass-rushing stats, along with those of the average playoff DF7 and the Super Bowl champs' DF7:

DF7	ASR	Rk	Sack Rate	Rk
49ers	7.9%	3	7.1%	9
Saints	6.3%	17	5.7%	21
Playoffs	6.5%	15.8	6.3%	14.8

After years of non-existent pressure on opposing QBs, the 49ers catapulted into the Top 3 pass-rushing DF7's in the league. And even when you remove the effect of opponent and game situation (i.e., look at unadjusted Sack Rate), they were still in the Top 10. Amazing.

OVERALL PASS-COVERAGE STATS

To wrap up the 2009-stats portion of the post, here's how efficiently the 49ers' secondary played against specific types of receivers:

DBs	vs. #1	Rk	vs. #2	Rk	vs. #3+	Rk	vs. TE	Rk	vs. RB	Rk
49ers	4.9%	17	-34.0%	1	-18.3%	6	-13.3%	6	15.8%	23
Saints	-35.0%	2	8.7%	23	10.2%	20	-17.8%	5	6.6%	19
Playoffs	-11.9%	11.3	-7.5%	12.9	-0.7%	16.5	-6.9%	10.5	4.3%	17.3

I'll go backwards here a little bit. What's important to notice about the stats in this table is how the average playoff team performs. Specifically, from their rankings, it appears that pass DEF against #1 WRs, #2 WRs, and TEs was important in 2009, whereas defending an opponents' #3 (or #4) WRs and RBs wasn't all that important. From the Saints stats, it seems like covering #1 WRs and TEs was a key to their success.

With that in mind, two things. First, the Niners need a proverbial shutdown corner, stat. Although being ranked 17th isn't all that bad, the 49ers' CBs were below average against #1 WRs, and were over 15% less efficient than the average playoff team's CBs. You might ask, "But I thought they signed Clements to be their shutdown corner?" Stay tuned.

Second, the near uniformity of the evidence about covering TEs suggests that (a) it's of overlooked importance, and (b) it's a good thing SF hasn't overlooked it. For most DEFs, TE coverage is the responsibility of the strong side LB and the Ss. The 49ers are no different in this respect. Therefore, it's a testament to Manny Lawson, Dashon Goldson, and Michael Lewis that the DEF was as efficient as it was vs. TEs. It's especially impressive when you consider they had to defend 6 of the Top 13 TEs in TE DYAR (Visanthe Shiancoe, Tony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark, Owen Daniels, Jermichael Finley, and Brent Celek).

GENESIS (AND I DON'T MEAN PHIL COLLINS' BAND)

Between the overall stat review and this post, I think I've shown pretty clearly that the 49ers' DEF was about as awesome a DEF we've seen from the team in a long time. Indeed, by nearly every statistical measure provided by FO, they were among the elite defensive units in the NFL.

What strikes me about all this, however, is its abruptness. It seems like only yesterday that most of us on NN were complaining in one way or another about a lack of pass rush, a Charmin-soft pass DEF, and various players getting manhandled on the defensive front. Today, I'm talking them up like they're the next coming of the Steel Curtain. How/why did this happen?

My view is that we can trace the Niners' awesome 2009 DEF to 5 things:

Drafting Willis in 2007
Switching to a base 3-4 alignment in 2009
Starting Goldson at FS in 2009
Drafting Tarell Brown in 2007
Signing Dre Bly in 2009

For the rest of the post, I'll present the stats that led me to believe the above.

The "duh" entry on my list is Patrick Willis being drafted in 2007. As far as the ridiculously good run DEF goes, you can trace its beginnings to that fateful day in April. Want proof? Here's a chart showing the relationship between DF7 ALY ranking and Run DEF DVOA ranking for Niner teams from 2002-2009:

First off, you can see that the two stats basically run together, and that's to be expected. When the DF7 plays well within 10 yards of the line, odds are that the overall run DEF stats will reflect that. But, for the purposes of showing the Willis effect, you can clearly see that the upward trend begins after 2006. To add a bit more detail, check out the data points from 2006 onward. For DF7 ALY, the Niners went from 26th to 14th to 12th to 8th. Similarly, their Run DEF DVOA went from 28th to 18th to 17th to 6th. As Willis is the straw that stirs the run DEF's drink, I think it's safe to say that their awesomeness owes alot to Round 1 of the 2007 NFL Draft.

The next major contributor to the 49ers' defensive improvement was Mike Singletary's decision to scrap Mike Nolan's Big Sub, "Hybrid," or whatever-you-want-to-call-it DEF -- I call it crap -- and give the team an identity by going to a full-time base 3-4 alignment. Although it's probably affected the run DEF to a certain degree, the biggest effect of the switch was evidenced by a concomitant improvement this season in both pass rush and overall pass DEF. Here's a chart showing the relationship between DF7 ASR ranking and Pass DEF DVOA ranking for Niner teams from 2002-2009:

Again, we have nearly a 1-to-1 correspondence, which means that recent Niner history decodes pass rush as the key to pass DEF. Indeed, just last year the 49ers' ASR was ranked 26th (!!!). Obviously, there's a chicken-and-egg thing going on wherein it may just have been the coverage letting down the pass rushers for the past 7 seasons. However, considering that both of their starting CBs missed significant playing time, it's reasonable to assume that -- in 2009 at least -- the pass-rushing chicken came before the pass-defending egg.

And if that doesn't satisfy you, here's another bit of evidence that suggests switching to the 3-4 is what underlies the pass-rush and pass-coverage improvements. Below is a chart comparing sack rates for the 11 3-4 DEFs in 2009 to those of the 21 4-3 DEFs:

From the looks of it, the 3-4 sure seems to be associated with a higher frequency of sacks on DEF. The story's the same if you look at rankings instead of the stats themselves. Specifically, the average 3-4 DEF was ranked about 6 spots higher in ASR (12.4 vs. 18.7) and about 8 spots higher in unadjusted Sack Rate (11.5 vs. 19.1).

One other thing the 3-4 did to help the pass rush, wish doesn't show up in these charts, was to get Ahmad Brooks on the field. At his size (6'3", 259), he's way to small to be a 4-3 DE, which is where the vast majority of pass rushers play in that alignment. In contrast, the majority of sacks in the 3-4 come from OLBs, a position that suited Brooks to a tee.

So, to recap, there's an inherent pass rush advantage to the 3-4, and it allowed Brooks -- who finished 2009 with 6.0 sacks -- to get on the field more because he's too small to play pass-rushing DE in a 4-3. The 49ers, who've been playing 4-3 or "crap" for the past 7 years, have been mainstays at the bottom of the ASR rankings, and - oh, by the way - the pass DEF rankings. Singletary switches to a full-time base 3-4 alignment, and - voila! - the pass rush goes from 26th to 3rd, and the pass DEF goes from 20th to 8th. Coincidence? I think not.

My final 3 reasons for SF rocketing into the defensive stratosphere are all related, and have to do with how their pass DEF DVOA relates to their ability to cover specific types of receivers. Remember that, as I showed you earlier, covering the TE seems to be really important in the NFL. And as I said, much of the responsibility for covering TEs goes to Dashon Goldson. What I'll add here is that, although covering the opposing #3 WR may not be that important for playoff participation, it's pretty darn important for the 49ers' pass DEF. Here's a chart showing the relationship between the Niners' Pass DEF DVOA ranking and their DVOA ranking vs. specific types of WRs from 2002-2009:

In this chart, the 2 trends most correlated with the Pass DEF DVOA trend (red line) are the TE trend and the #3 WR trend. Regarding the TE trend, if it's hard to see the corresponding green line, it's because the 49ers' DVOA trend vs. TEs is almost exactly the same as that of their overall Pass DEF DVOA. In other words, if you wanted to guess the Niners' Pass DEF DVOA ranking for a given year, you'd be amazingly accurate just by knowing how they did in covering TEs. And who's responsibility is that? The strong-side LB and the FS, but the FS position seems to have had a larger effect. Back in 2002 and 2003, Zack Bronson was the FS, and he was easily the best one the Niners had prior to Goldson. In between Bronson and Goldson, they had the illustrious Ronnie Heard, the hit-heavy-but-coverage-light Keith Lewis, and the everything-light Mark Roman. During those seasons, TE coverage reached its nadir. The promotion of Goldson has taken the Niners' ranking from 27th in 2007 all the way to 6th this season.

Regarding the #3 WR trend, the 49ers have made several moves over the past 3 seasons to acquire depth in the back end of their DEF; the most influential of which have been Brown and Bly. I don't think it's a coincidence that their coverage of #3 WRs improved considerably during the season in which they signed a legit #3 corner, and in which one of their talented young backups begins to see significant playing time.

So, to recap, the 49ers' defensive resurgence in 2009 can be traced back to a structural shift to the 3-4 alignment, which put their best pass rushers in the best position (OLB), the drafting of Willis, which solidified their run DEF, and the acquisitions/lineup changes that improved their CB depth (for covering #3 WRs) as well as their coverage of TEs.

BOTTOM LINE

As this is the final installment of the series, here's what the totality of the stats say should be the 49ers' offseason focus in 2010:

Pass OFF!
Pass OFF!
Pass OFF!
Allow Alex Smith to become more comfortable in the current offensive system, and to further develop his on-field rapport with Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis
Find an efficient backup RB to keep Gore healthy
Stop running the ball up the middle 70% of the time
Find a competent #3 WR
Find pass-protectors along the OL, rather than one-dimensional maulers
Leave the DEF alone!
Find a KR/PR

*DVOA, ALY, and ASR statistics used to produce this article were provided by Football Outsiders.

Poll

Which of the following do you think was the BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR to the 49ers' defensive improvement over the past few seasons?

Drafting Willis in 2007

260 votes

Switching to a base 3-4 in 2009

76 votes

Starting Goldson at FS in 2009

8 votes

Drafting Brown in 2007 and signing Bly in 2009

2 votes

346 votes | Poll has closed

Question of the Day: Which five Bengals players would you lock in if every NFL player was eligible for free agency?

Kirkendall — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 16:16:57 -0000

More photos » Ed Reinke - AP

4 months ago: Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Leon Hall (29) returns an interception as cornerback Morgan Trent (25) blocks Chicago Bears receiver Johnny Knox (13) in the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2009, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Ed Reinke)

Browse more photos »

After having franchised players like Justin Smith, Stacy Andrews and Shayne Graham recently, the Bengals elected to not use the tag on any of their unrestricted free agents -- mostly because no one is worth using the super-expensive franchise tag. Either way, it got me thinking.

What five players on the Bengals roster would you lock in if the league decided to make every NFL player a free agent and you could only prevent five players from going into free agency.

My list.

Carson Palmer
Cedric Benson
Domata Peko
Leon Hall
Johnathan Joseph

I had a hard time leaving off Andrew Whitworth, but I really wanted both cornerbacks because I believe that they are one of our greatest strengths on defense. Anyway, what five players would you lock in?

Project 2010: Re-signing Vernon Davis and Patrick Willis

Fooch — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 15:00:26 -0000

While the 49ers find themselves at a cross-roads of sorts when it comes to the 2010 draft, free agency will likely be a bit less involved. The team has some free agents they want to retain, but I would be shocked if they made a particularly big splash on the open market. Sure there's potentially going to be some impressive talent out there. Last season the team made a run at Kurt Warner that netted zilch, and they did add guys like Moran Norris and Brandon Jones. But let's be honest, after back-to-back offseasons that netted Nate Clements and Justin Smith, things quieted down considerably, and will probably continue so this time around.

Which brings me to the point of this post. It's important for the 49ers to add depth across the roster, but one or two signings I would love to see happen would be that the 49ers ink Vernon Davis and/or Patrick Willis to long term contract extensions. These are two of the 49ers biggest playmakers on each side of the ball (earth-shattering comment I realize). Davis is going to be a free agent after 2010 and Willis will be a free agent after 2011.

However, as much as I would like to see these two extended, the uncertain labor atmosphere has me a bit concerned about what the 49ers will do in the short-term. In a world that includes an uncapped 2010, and then a guaranteed return to a cap in 2011, the 49ers could conceivably front load contracts for both guys and take the biggest portion of a cap hit in 2010. I'm not saying Willis and/or Davis would agree to such a deal, but it certainly provides an interesting opportunity.

Sometime yesterday though, I was reading an interesting article that addressed the front-loading of big extension in 2010. I wish I could find the article, but I can't remember where I read it. The general gist of it was as follows: If a team has a young player coming up on free agency in a year or two, and with the threat of a 2011 lockout, why would said team give out big money to the player?

I'm still not sure I totally get the argument being made. I suppose maybe if a team really thinks 2011 won't happen they don't want to be on the hook for the big contract when the player will potentially be sitting out a full season?

At this point, what do folks think will happen with Davis and Willis this offseason. The 49ers have done a fairly good job extending their young players including Frank Gore, Joe Staley and Parys Haralson among others. The 49ers also have Manny Lawson coming up for free agency in 2011. Lawson would seem to be the cheapest to extend, so maybe that happens first? There really hasn't been much talk about extending any of these guys, which would seem to indicate if any talks have happened, they've been kept fairly quiet. How will things go down, or will we see players departing left and right?

Poll

Who will the 49ers extend this offseason?

Vernon Davis

99 votes

Patrick Willis

199 votes

Both

662 votes

Neither

77 votes

1037 votes | Poll has closed

To What End? Examining the 3-4 DE Position

Wonko — Sat, 20 Feb 2010 17:00:19 -0000

More photos » Lenny Ignelzi - AP

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The 3-4 Defensive End has to be least glorious position on the football field. The position is one that doesn't get a lot of sacks and doesn't even get that many tackles. The same could be said for the Nose Tackle, but that guy at least gets seen in goal line stands when he gets penetration and stops an up-the-middle run. When the Defensive End gets penetration chances are the the RB or QB just moves to avoid him. He did his job, but there isn't much glory in it. On top of that, it's impossibly hard to get to a Pro Bowl since the top 4-3 Defensive Ends are usually guys that get 10+ sacks in a season. So who are these blue collar workers of the NFL? Let's get to know them with the same three questions from my similar post on Nose Tackles.

What is a Defensive End?

Who are the 3-4 Defensive Ends in the NFL?

Where do they come from?

What is a Defensive End?

A defensive end gets its name from being the guy on the end of the line of players on defensive who lineup at the line of scrimmage. In the 4-3 this player would line up across from one of the shoulders of the Tight End (6 or 7 technique, you read the Nose Tackle post). Their job is use their speed and power to avoid or attack the offensive lineman on a trajectory that will take them more or less straight to the QB. Obviously speed, pass rushing moves and acceleration to the QB will be the most prized skills for a player at this position. By contrast, the 3-4 defensive end will line up on the outside should of the offensive tackle and his only option is go through the one or more 300 pounders to get to the QB or RB, speed is not going to be a big help.

At this point, maybe you're thinking, "Hey Wonko, I've read/seen the Blind Side, the offensive tackle is supposed to be the athletic guy have to stop all kinds of pass rushes in order to keep his QB clean, isn't it a misuse of his abilities to block the defensive end when a Quarterback hungry sack specialist like Lawrence Taylor/Jerome Harrison/Joey Porter/Shawne Merriman is going to rush as well?" Well, you're right, and that's why the defensive end lines up where he does. He's running interference if he can in some way delay the offensive tackle then that helps his pass rushers get to the QB. If the offensive tackle just goes around the defensive end, then his responsibility shifts to attack the guard and getting penetration using his strength, quickness and hands.

The defensive end may always be a part of a "stunt" where he attacks the outside shoulder of the offensive tackle and forces him wide, while the linebacker rushes the passer to inside and attacks the less athletic guard (or possibly the blocking back if the guard is double teaming the nose tackle). The best defensive ends (your Richard Seymour's and Aaron Smiths) will be good enough to do all this and get some sacks and this may force the offensive to double team him. If he the end is double teamed to go along with the usually already double teamed Nose tackle, then the entire offensive is committed to blocking the 2 ends and the nose tackle leaving the linebackers free to attack with no opposition other than the running backs and tight ends. This is 3-4 Nirvana.

Who are the 3-4 Defensive Ends in the NFL?

Warning: This is a list of very boring and not-so-famous names.

Team	Defensive Ends
Arizona Cardinals	Calais Campbell/Darnell Dockett
Baltimore Ravens	Trevor Pryce/Dwan Edwards
Cleveland Browns	Kenyon Coleman/Robaire Smith/Corey Williams
Dallas Cowboys	Igor Olshanksy/Marcus Spears
Denver Broncos	Ryan McBean/Kenny Peterson/Vonnie Holliday
Green Bay Packers	Johnny Jolly/Cullen Jenkins
Kansas City Chiefs	Tyson Jackson/Glenn Dorsey/Wallace Gilberry
Miami Dolphins	Kendall Langford/Randy Starks
New England Patriots	Ty Warren/Jarvis Green
New York Jets	Shaun Ellis/Marques Douglas
Pittsburgh Steelers	Aaron Smith/Brett Keisel/Travis Kirschke
San Diego Chargers	Luis Castillo/Jacques Cesaire/Travis Johnson/Alphonso Boone
San Francisco 49ers	Isaac Sapoaga/Justin Smith

Where do they come from?

I'm going to do the same breakdown by conference and draft position that I did for the nose tackles, but I must warn you that just from perusing the list above I can tell you that most were not drafted to play 3-4 defensive end. Some, like the Green Bay, Arizona and Denver DEs are holdovers from their 4-3 days and have been thrust into the 3-4 DE position merely by being the most qualified on their team. Others are former high draft picks as 4-3 DEs (Justin Smith, Shaun Ellis) or DTs (Glenn Dorsey, Travis Johnson, Randy Starks, Darnell Dockett) who didn't work out at those positions or maybe just got too old to rush the passer well (Trevor Pryce, Vonnie Holliday) but found their way to jobs in the 3-4. And then there are a bunch of journeyman who are either just finding their niche as 3-4 role players (Alphonso Boone) or have been playing rent-a-4-3-DE (Jacques Cesaire, Marques Douglas, Kenyon Coleman, Travis Kirschke, Robaire Smith, Jarvis Green) for years. Most of the rest then make up the "drafted as 3-4 DE guys" (Luis Castillo, Marcus Spears, Igor Olshansky, Tyson Jackson, Aaron Smith, Ty Warren, Brett Keisel, Isaac Sapoaga, Dwan Edwards).

ACC (6): Florida State (2, Dockett, Johnson), Maryland (1, Starks), UNC (1, Holliday), Clemson (1, Pryce), Miami (1, Campbell)

SEC (6): LSU (4, Dorsey, Green, Jackson, Spears), Tennessee (Ellis), Alabama (Gilberry)

Bg 12 (4): Texas A&M (2, Warren, Jolly), Missouri (J. Smith), Oklahoma State (1, McBean)

Pac 10 (4): UCLA (2, Coleman, Kirschke), Oregon State (1, Edwards), Oregon (1, Olshanksy)

Big Ten (3): Northwestern (1, Castillo), Ohio State (1, Peterson), Michigan State (1, R. Smith)

Mid Majors (3): Hawaii (1, Sapoaga), Central Michigan (1, Jenkins), BYU (1, Keisel)

"Small" Schools (6): Cen. Conn. St (1, Cesaire), No. Colorado (1, A. Smith), Mt. San Antonio JC (1, Boone), Howard (1, Douglas), Hampton (1, Langford), Arkansas St (Williams)

With the small sample size here we can see that LSU produces a lot of big men. Two are well established players (Spears and Green), but not stars. One is not really suited for his role in KC (Dorsey) and the other is just getting his career going in the NFL (Jackson). 3 of them are 1st round picks (all, except Green). I'm not sure there is much to draw from that though. The small schools combine for as many DEs as either of two main big conference sources, which, I think, just points to the fact that these guys can come from anywhere. You just need to be big and strong and take time to learn what you need to do in your role. These are not super athletic giants or fast and slippery speed players, they are the workman of the NFL and just need a certain amount of talent and the rest is just going to work everyday and doing your job well.

Finally, let's break it down by round. We already know we are going to see a fair amount of 1st rounders.

1st Round (9): Castillo, Dorsey, Ellis, Holliday, Jackson, Johnson, Pryce, Spears, J. Smith

2nd Round (3): Campbell, Olshansky, Edwards

3rd Round (4): Dockett, Langford, Peterson, Starks

4th Round (3): McBean, Sapoaga, A. Smith

5th Round (1): Coleman

6th Round (3): Jolly, R. Smith, Williams

7th Round (2): Boone, Keisel

UDFA (4): Cesaire, Kirschke, Gilberry, Jenkins

The trend I see here is that, as I mentioned before, the first rounds are basically high talent guys that can't find their place. Some have gotten second chances in the 3-4, at least one needs a second chance somewhere else (Dorsey) and at least 1 is probably a poor fit in the 3-4, but has the talent to pull it off (Ellis). All of the guys in rounds 2-4 are guys that seem made for the 3-4. Almost all of them have played there their entire careers and are important parts of their defense, although probably not the most important parts. The rest are more of the scrappy guys that find roles on teams that have injuries or just need someone to start for a season or two until they find the right guy or they are 4-3 guys who transitioned to the 3-4 very recently and the jury is still out. Interesting stuff.

So what does this mean for the 2010 draft? My take is that there is some untapped value in the first round if you can get one of those guys that would end up failing in the 4-3, but the safer route is to go for a truer 3-4 DE in the 2nd through 4th rounds, although, the Chargers just drafted a guy in the 4th round for that role (Martin), they have a former 1st round pick on their roster (Castillo) and could potentially bring back another (Johnson).

Bengals unlikely to use franchise tag; focusing on restricted free agents and extensions for starters

Kirkendall — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 04:29:07 -0000

In 2007 it was Justin Smith. In 2008, it was Stacy Andrews. In 2009, it was Shayne Graham. This year, the Bengals aren't likely to use the franchise tag on anyone. Thank goodness. Every year we use the franchise tag, that player leaves for a greater deal the following season. And no one expects Graham to return in 2010. Instead, Geoff Hobson writes, "it appears that much of the Bengals’ focus is going to be on the restricted free agent class as well as players nearing the end of their contracts."

Realistically the Bengals don't have any good options with the franchise tag. They could have franchised Shayne Graham... yea, right. Their best option was Bobbie Williams. But age likely restrains the Bengals from signing him to a deal that could reach the $9 million neighborhood. And you're not going to franchise guys like Larry Johnson, Roy Williams, Reggie Kelly (though he should return), Shaun Smith, Tank Johnson or Jeremi Johnson.

Furthermore, I'll bet that Williams will happily stay with the Bengals when they make an offer to the right guard, who will turn 34 this season.

It makes sense to focus on guys like Brandon Johnson, Kyries Hebert, Rashad Jeanty, Nate Livings, Kyle Cook, Evan Mathis, Dennis Roland, J.P. Foschi and Abdul Hodges, who are either restricted or exclusive rights free agents. All players are solid contributors in backup and/or special teams roles.

Geoff Hobson concluded:

It is believed they’ll also look at extending the contracts of players heading into their last year of deals, like cornerback Johnathan Joseph and running back Cedric Benson. Cornerback Leon Hall, who has two years left on his deal, is also an extension candidate.

15 Stats You (Probably) Didn’t Know About the 2009 49ers

Florida Danny — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 18:55:22 -0000

I'm baaaaaaaaaack. That's right. After a long hiatus for various work-related reasons (Read: extracurricular activities impossible for quality control guy in the middle of an office reorganization), I return to reclaim my rightful place as Niners Nation's (NN) resident stats nerd. And believe me, I'll be making up for my absence in a big way (Read: 12 posts over the next 24 days). For some of you, my stat posts will be just what the doctor ordered as a remedy for your Niner/NFL withdrawal. For the rest, I've just given you some really bad news. Here's hoping for more of the former than the latter.

Like Peyton Manning relying on his bread and butter - aka throwing backbreaker INTs - when he returns to the Super Bowl after a long absence, I'm also going back to what I do best: bringing Football Outsiders' (FO) stats to NN. For those who don't visit FO as, um, frequently, as I do, they ran a series of "Stat of the Day" posts during the weeks leading up to the Super Bowl in which they basically scoured the catacombs of their stat database to present information for which they don't otherwise have the time/space.

Well, it turns out that the 2009 49ers were prominently represented in the newly declassified stats; some positively and some negatively. Reading through their posts, I found myself being surprised repeatedly to varying degrees. It was as if I was in some late-night TV purgatory between Arsenio Hall's, "Things that make you go hmm," and Johnny Carson's, "I-I-I-I-I did not know that." My astonishment - and its continuum - forms the basis of this post.

Specifically, I've taken FO's 15 stat-of-the-day mentions of Niner players & team units, ranked them from most to least surprising, and turned that ranking into a countdown-style article. As you'll see, some of these stats aren't surprising at all (Hint: Patrick Willis is awesome!), some are downright astonishing, and the most surprising of all - aka #1 on my list - will probably result in a "duh!" moment for those of you who've been reading my posts since I began on NN back in the fall of 2008. I figured I'd reward the NN greybeards with an inside joke to mark my return.

OK, so on with "The Final Countdown!"

After the jump, I prove that, if asked to do so by an attending officer, I can, in fact, count backwards from 15 to 1...

#15 - PATRICK WILLIS IS AWESOME!

Although much of the US probably still thinks Ray Lewis or Brian Urlacher is the best MLB in the NFL, Niner fans are intimately familiar with the stone-cold fact that Willis is the current standard-bearer at his position. For the nation's edification, FO dedicated an entire post to displaying - statistically, of course - just how good Willis truly is. Although it's technically 2 stats, here's the 15^th-most surprising stat you probably didn't know:

Willis was the best LB in the NFL when it came to tackling receivers after they'd caught a pass. Specifically, Willis had 63 tackles - most among LBs - on plays in which the opponent completed a pass. Furthermore, on such plays, he led all LBs with 30 stops, which are tackles that result in an unsuccessful play for the opposing OFF (according to FO's standards of down-and-distance-specific success; See here for those standards).

Short translation: Patrick Willis is awesome! Long translation: Patrick Willis is LB kryptonite to offensive pass efficiency.

#14 - ANDY LEE AKA ROBO-PUNTER

Like Willis - OK, maybe a little more than Willis - Lee's prowess is far less conspicuous nationally than it is among Niner fans. Of course, we'd probably prefer it that way, given the alternative situation in which a team's punter also wears its best-selling jersey. Well, even if you already knew that Lee is the proverbial ROBO-PUNTER, I bet you didn't know the 14^th-most surprising stat you probably didn't know:

Compared to the league average - and all else being equal among punters - Lee gave the 49ers the largest field position advantage via the punt. Specifically, Lee single-handedly accounted for about 17 points-worth of field position on special teams. In other words, if Lee was just an average punter, the 49ers would have given up about 17 more points this season - or about a full point more per game.

#13 - FALSE START. OFFENSE. NUMBER 85.

The breakout season posted by Vernon Davis in 2009 may or may not have been surprising to you. However, one thing that I'm sure won't surprise any Niner fan is the 13^th-most surprising stat you probably didn't know:

VD committed 12 penalties this season, which was good/bad enough for 6^th-most in the NFL among individual offensive players. The 5 penalty machines above him all play OL.

You know how some coaches make fumble-prone RBs carry the ball around with them all offseason as a way to cure their fumble-itis? Well, given that VD's game is nearly complete, perhaps Mike Singletary should just have him stand still until July. I bet he won't false start after that.

#12 - WHY AGAIN WASN'T HE INVITED TO THE PRO BOWL?

Although the stat I'm about to present to you right now isn't all that surprising, what was surprising to me was the emergence of NT-talk during Niner game broadcasts (I mean Nose Tackle, not New Testament). Generally speaking, the NT in a 3-4 defense is about as thankless and invisible as any position a defender could play. I mean, he's basically a big, fat, space-eating, gap-filling, stat-phobic member of his team's roster. Not since the days of Ted Washington have the 49ers had one that's actually any good...until Aubrayo Franklin. And like Washington did back in his days with the Niners, Franklin got mentioned a lot this season; except of course by anyone holding a Pro Bowl ballot. That's a damn shame, especially when I tell you the 12^th-most surprising stat you probably didn't know:

Franklin was the best 3-4 NT, the 3^rd-best DT, and the 5^th-best DL in the NFL with respect to stop rate against the run. Specifically, 93% of the Franklin's tackles in the run game resulted in an inefficient (aka unsuccessful) gain for the opposing OFF.

So Franklin, who plays a position in which the purpose of life is to stop the run, is the most efficient run-stopper at that position, and he doesn't go to the Pro Bowl? Even after they were down to 15^th in the pecking order? Thankfully, as you'll see shortly, this egregious omission was remedied via another Niner's Pro-Bowl participation.

#11 - MISSED IT BY THAT MUCH!

If I were being 100% selfish in this post, I would have ranked this stat #15 because, to me, it's been about as conspicuous as the elephant in my room. Anyone who's had the privilege/punishment of reading my game-thread comments knows exactly who I'm about to talk about. Hint #1: He's young. Hint #2: He just became a starter. Hint #3: He's a WR. Hint #4: He's allergic to the 1^st-down marker when he catches the ball on 3^rd down. Hopefully, it's obvious by now. If not, here's the 11^th-most surprising stat you probably didn't know (although I did):

Josh Morgan was #2 in the NFL among WRs & TEs both in terms of total unsuccessful receptions and unsuccessful reception rate. Specifically, 22 of his 52 receptions - or 42.3% -- resulted in yardage representative of down-and-distance inefficiency.

If you think 22 unsuccessful receptions isn't that high of a total, consider that Morgan had the highest total of any WR not named Brandon Marshall, who - and here are a couple of bonus stats - was targeted nearly twice as many times (154 vs. 81) and had nearly twice as many receptions (101 vs. 52).

Likewise, if you think 42.3% isn't that high of a failure rate, consider that Morgan was 1 of only 2 WRs/TEs in the league to even break the 40% threshold, with the other being Donald Lee, the Packers' short-yardage TE.

#10 - FISH OR CUT BAIT? EVIDENCE SAYS CUT BAIT.

Also familiar to regular readers of mine is that I'm a strong believer in the "fish or cut bait" roster philosophy. There comes a point in time in which a player has shown all he's ever going to show, and it's time to rid the roster of his dead weight. In this context, you might be expecting me to talk about my least favorite 49er, Arnaz "The Human Roster Exemption" Battle.

Interestingly enough, I'm not. Actually, I picked up a new fish-or-cut-bait target later on in the season when I heard his name for the first time all season; right around Week 17 or so. I had practically forgotten he was still on the roster. I'm talking about Isaac Sopoaga. What has this guy ever done in a Niner uniform besides perennially being 1 or 2 years away from being an impact DE/DT/waterboy? Don't agree with me that he's dead weight? Well, that must mean you'll be surprised to know the 10^th-most surprising stat:

Only 10 DL in the NFL had a lower stop rate against the run than Sopoaga. Specifically, when Sopoaga made a tackle on a running play, the opposing OFF gained efficient/successful yardage 41% of the time.

Given that 3-4 DEs don't do much in the way of pass-rushing, a 3-4 DE who can't stop the run is pretty much the definition of "expendable;" and "expendable" is pretty much the definition of "dead weight; and "dead weight" is a good cue for choosing one of the fish-or-cut-bait options (Hint: It's not "fish").

#9 - DUMPOFFS AND CHECKDOWNS

During the season, I wrote about how there was kind of a chicken-and-egg paradox when trying to figure out who was to blame for Alex Smith's low Yards per Attempt stat. Was the chicken calling for a lot of dumpoffs and checkdowns or was the egg throwing a lot of dumpoffs and checkdowns that weren't called? Well, as with the chicken-egg thing, we're not going to find that answer any time soon. Well, actually, we'll find out in a few paragraphs. What you'll find out now, though, is my 9^th-most surprising stat that you probably didn't know:

Among QBs with at least 100 completions, Smith had the 3^rd-highest failure rate on completed passes. Specifically, 34.7% of Smith's completions resulted in inefficient/unsuccessful yardage for the 49ers' OFF.

Fooch did a pretty thorough treatment of this stat a few weeks ago. What I think is most surprising about it, though, is the statistical company with which Smith kept. Bonus stat alert: The combined record of the other 8 teams represented in the top 10 of QB completion failure rate is 47-81. You want a good indicator of crappy teams? Try inefficient QBs...or OCs; whichever came first, the chicken or the egg.

#8 - MORE FROM THE FAILURE FILES

About halfway through the list, this is where the surprise factor takes a marked increase. Unlike the relatively "duh!" stats I've presented so far, the rest of the rankings have a genuine surprise factor in them. They may not be earth-shattering revelations, but - at least to me - they're all surprising in varying magnitudes.

The first of the rest that caught me by surprise the least was about Michael Crabtree. Personally, I thought his rookie year was an unmitigated success. I also thought that his game, both in terms of what he can do and what the 49ers ask him to do, doesn't resemble Morgan's in the slightest. Little did I know the 8^th-most surprising stat:

Crabs was #5 in the NFL among WRs/TEs when it came to unsuccessful reception rate. Specifically, 33.3% of his receptions resulted in inefficient yardage.

Obviously, I don't anticipate this becoming a career-long trend. However, I'm not sure if you're keeping track, but I've already told you that the 2009 49ers had the 3^rd-worst QB in completion failure rate, along with 2 of the bottom 5 WRs in reception success rate. But wait, there's more...

#7 - EVEN MORE FROM THE FAILURE FILES

There's only one prominent member of the 49ers' pass OFF left that I haven't mentioned in this failure party: VD. Well, technically, I did mention him earlier with respect to penalties by offensive players; just not in the context of failed receptions. Well, here's the 7^th-most surprising stat:

VD's 19 unsuccessful receptions ranked #6 in the NFL among WRs & TEs.

Granted, VD suffered from a Brandon-Marshall-esque problem in that his large number of unsuccessful receptions was a byproduct of being targeted 129 times this past season. Nevertheless, as much as I prefer rates to totals, VD's total is far from meaningless. That's because each unsuccessful VD reception in 2009 meant one more 2^nd-and-long, 3^rd-and-mid-to-long, or 4^th down situation for the Niners' OFF. Furthermore, it can be argued that VD's unsuccessful receptions were even more detrimental to the overall OFF precisely because he was such an integral part of it. If an offensive player has a lot of unsuccessful receptions in a small number of targets, so be it. You know he sucks, and you replace him. But when it's an offensive player that's targeted nearly as much as both of your starting WRs combined, it's kind of difficult to cut bait, so to speak.

And that brings me back to the chicken and egg. What we see here is that, in terms of inefficiency, the 49ers' pass OFF is practically unparalleled. Inefficiency is pervasive, even affecting their Pro Bowl TE of the present and their destined-to-be Pro Bowl WR of the future. Even when it appears that their much-maligned QB has enjoyed somewhat of a renaissance, and even when a 6^th-round WR pick shows enough talent to start from the outset of his 2^nd NFL season, inefficiency rules the day. So, to me, the evidence is pretty compelling that the chicken came before the egg. Jimmy Raye's pass OFF, though good enough to be productive, needs a lot of fine-tuning to become efficient.

#6 - PATRICK WILLIS IS STILL AWESOME (BUT NOT AS MUCH AS I PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT)!

Just to pre-empt any hate comments, let me be clear that by no means am I suggesting here that Willis is anything less than the best MLB in the NFL. I bring up this stat only because I was really surprised by it. After seeing Willis ranked #1 in completion tackles and completion stops among LBs, I full expected him to be - at the very least - in the top 5 of completion stop rate. Well, he's not in the top 5, and he's not even in the top 10:

At 48%, Willis was #12 among NFL LBs in stop rate on completed passes.

For someone who prefers rates to totals, needless to say I wasn't very happy upon learning this little tidbit of info. However, because certain LBs make more tackles than others, Willis' rate is a more informative measure than his totals. Looking at the Top 10, though, I think I've identified why Willis is ranked so low - and low is a little unfair given that he's still 12^th. Namely, Willis is in a class by himself in terms of having a high level of productivity coupled with a high level of efficiency. When looking at the other LBs in the Top 12 of the completion stop rate rankings, only 1 has even half as many completion tackles, and 8 of the other 11 have less than one-third as many. So, looking at both the totals and rates as complimentary measures, it's pretty clear that some LBs were very productive and other LBs were very efficient; but only Patrick Willis was both productive and efficient. It was still surprising, though.

#5 - STRIKING GOLD

Now we're getting to the nitty gritty; the stuff that really surprised the hell out of me.

The Top 5 begins with the first of two S-related stats. That kind of reduces the guesswork a little bit, eh? The 5^th-most surprising stat you probably didn't know is another double-whammy:

Dashon Goldson's 51 tackles on completed passes was the 3^rd-highest total among Ss. He also ranked 3^rd with 11 completion stops.

So, going back to the last discussion, Goldson was easily one of the most productive Ss in the league. I was absolutely shocked when I saw this. I knew Goldson was good. I knew he has a bright future ahead of him. I knew for damn sure that he's better than Mark Roman. What I didn't know is that he's a tackling machine. Rather, I always figured his skills were in the "create turnovers" and "lay wood" mold of FSs, not the "I'm the last line of defense" mold.

#4 - THE TOTAL PACKAGE (AND I DON'T MEAN LEX LUGER)

I remember back during the lead-up to 2008 free agency, the debate was between trading for Jared Allen or signing Justin Smith. Allen was the well-known, high-priced franchise player, whereas Smith was the anonymous, bargain basement purchase. Everyone had seen what Allen could do for a DEF, whereas Smith's prowess with the Bengals was predominately outside the box score. As we all know by now, the Niners chose to sign Smith to a 6-year, $45M deal, while Allen was traded to the Vikings, where he later signed a 6-year, $72M deal. At the time, McNolan had a lotta ‘splainin' to do!

The 49ers may have gone the cheaper, non-descript route, but they definitely got their money's worth. That's because - and this is pretty ironic -

Justin Smith's 35 hurries ranked 2^nd in the NFL among DLs/LBs, behind only Jared Allen.

Where things get even more lopsided in favor of the Niners' brass is in this complementary stat:

Justin Smith's 88% stop rate vs. the run ranked 10^th among DLs.

Jared Allen? Nowhere to be found on that list. So, in the grand scheme of things, MIN paid $30M more for a player that - when compared to Smith - was more one-dimensional in 2009. In fact, in addition to Smith, only 1 other front-7 defender appeared on both the QB Hurry & Run Stop Rate Top 10 lists: Mario Williams. I hear he got taken #1 a couple of years ago, that he's pretty good, and that, oh yeah, he signed a 6-year, $54M rookie contract. So, based on 2009 stats (and probably 2008 for that matter), the 49ers definitely got a lot of bang for their buck.

In terms of how much Smith's stats surprised me, I have always been under the impression that his impact on the Niners' DEF was subtle, full of intangibles, and showed up more in the coach's film than in the box score. I remember when he was signed that his career stats were a tad underwhelming, but his value was undeniable based on all the dirty work he did. Well, thanks to FO, now we know 2 dirty-work stats that show Smith's 2009 season was every bit as good as what Scot McLoughan advertised.

#3 - LAYING DOWN THE LAW IN PASS DEFENSE

Remember how I said Willis was #12 among LBs in completion stop rate? What I strategically withheld in that section was that he's actually not even the best Niner LB on that list. That honor goes to a player whom, up until now, I actually thought was frequently taken out in passing situations precisely because he wasn't all that good in pass defense. It turns out he's not just really good at defending the pass; he's also really good at making the QB pay for throwing a pass. Here's my 3^rd-most surprising stat, which again is actually 2 stats:

Manny Lawson's 65% stop rate on completed passes ranked him #2 in the NFL among LBs.
Lawson's 11 hits on opposing QBs were tied for the 6^th-most among NFL defenders.

Wow. I-I-I-I did not know that. Manny Lawson is omnipresent. When the QB drops back to pass, Lawson gets a hit on him. Then, when the pass is complete, he's also there to tackle the receiver. Amazing.

#2 - MORE FROM THE "I THOUGHT HE'S A PASS DEFENSE LIABILITY" FILES

Continuing the theme, the subject of this stat appears to only see the field in pass defense situations because the coaching staff will do whatever it takes to keep Roman off the field. So I was absolutely shocked - shocked! - to see him at the top of any rankings related to pass defense stats. All I remember from this season is that, if there was a pass defense fail during a game, you could bet your bottom dollar that either Roman or this guy got beat/screwed up on the play. Well, what a real surprise it was when I read the 2^nd-most surprising stat I didn't know:

Michael Lewis' 10 stops on completed passes was good for #4 in the NFL among Ss

How about that? It's not that Lewis makes a lot of tackles on completed passes, which could easily be the result of him being a bad pass defender, but good tackler. Rather, Lewis makes a lot of stops on completed passes, which means that he prevents pass-catchers from gaining efficient yardage. If it's 3^rd & 9, Lewis tackles the receiver (sometimes before he catches the ball, sometimes after) before he gets those 9 yards. If it's 2^nd & 7, his tackle of the receiver keeps the opposing OFF out of 3^rd & short. For a guy who's considered to be really bad in pass defense, it turns out that Lewis was a lot better in 2009 than I thought he was.

#1 - THE HYBRID STRIKES BACK

Now for the inside joke...The single-most surprising Niner-related stat that I came across while reading FO's Stat of the Day posts was

Mike Nolan led the 2009 Broncos DEF to the 2^nd-best turnaround in the DVOA era (1993-2009). Specifically, DEN's DEF went from 24.7% less efficient than the league average in 2008 to 7.9% more efficient than the league average in 2009.

For those of you who've been around since the 2008 season, you'll know my first column on NN was a precise dissection of Nolan's reality-light assessments of his team. In that context, as well as knowing just how much Mike Singletary's singular focus on the 3-4 has been an improvement over Nolan's identity-free "Hybrid" and efficiency free "Big Sub," you can see why I'd be flabbergasted to see the word "best" used to describe anything related to a Nolan-led DEF (except for maybe "best at being bad").

So, props to Mike Nolan for actually succeeding at something in the NFL...finally.

BOTTOM LINE

I hope you enjoyed my little countdown here. I'm sure many will disagree with some of my slotting, and many were far less surprised than I was about some of the stats FO declassified. Feel free to voice your disagreements in the comment section. What's less debatable is that, going inside the numbers, so to speak, these stats helped me learn/confirm the following:

Patrick Willis is all-around awesome.
Andy Lee is ROBO-PUNTER.
VD has a penalty problem.
Aubrayo Franklin had a Pro-Bowl-worthy 2009 season.
Josh Morgan needs to stop looking for the imaginary yellow line and start focusing on the real orange first-down marker.
It's time to cut bait aka Isaac Sopoaga.
There was an inefficiency epidemic that spread among offensive players in the Niners' passing game. Jimmy Raye appears to have been wielding the bacteria.
The 49ers arguably had the most efficient S duo in the NFL during 2009.
Justin Smith was arguably the best all-around DL in the NFL during 2009.
Manny Lawson was all over the field in pass defense this season.
Michael Lewis was not, in fact, a pass defense liability this season. I guess I can lay off him now.
After nearly 30 years in the NFL, Mike Nolan finally became a competent defensive coach.

*DVOA statistics used to produce this article were provided by Football Outsiders.

Poll

Which of the following statistical rankings is MOST surprising to you about the 2009 season?

Both starting Ss among top 5 in completion stops

200 votes

J. Smith #2 in QB hurries

42 votes

Lawson #2 in QB hits

180 votes

Nolan #2 all-time in best defensive one-year turnaround

72 votes

494 votes | Poll has closed

Defensive Line: Long look back, brief look forward

Fooch — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 15:00:24 -0000

In looking at the 49ers defense, the front seven is generally a fairly quiet group. Obviously you've got Pro Bowlers like Patrick Willis and Justin Smith (even if it was because of injury, I'll still refer to him as such), but as we mentioned in discussing the outside linebackers, you don't think much about them and then come the end of the game you realize they've put on an impressive effort. The defensive line personifies this across the board as a unit that handles its business in an unassuming manner.

There are some talented guys on draft boards and in free agency this offseason, but I really wonder how much money the team is going to invest in additional players. Obviously you're always looking to improve, but how much do they need on the line at this point? Kentwan Balmer hasn't exactly set the world on fire up to this point, but I think they'll give it another spin in 2010 and make a decision at that point what to do next.

Justin Smith

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2009 - Justin Smith	16	6	65	0	0	0	40	15	55

After years of excellent but under-the-radar play, Justin Smith was finally rewarded this season with his first Pro Bowl appearance. His numbers were actually down from last year (1 less sack, 18 fewer tackles), but as is always the case with Smith, it felt like he was all over the field all the time. In 2008, Mike Nolan used him all over the field in 7 of the 8 front seven positions at some point or another. Once Mike Singletary took over, Smith settled in at right defensive end. The defensive ends in the 3-4 are not going to put up monster numbers. They often are there to clear space for the OLBs to bust through and make the plays. Nonetheless, Justin Smith still was a big-time impact player and a leader of this defense.

As we head into 2010 and the potential of an uncapped year, salary discussions don't exactly jump out as much. However, if the league comes through this season with a salary cap on the other end, Smith is in a fairly decent position contract-wise. The team loaded up year 2 of his contract (2009) with almost a quarter of the cap charge ($10.583 million), with the remaining years all under $10 million. He's signed through 2013, which would put him at 34 by the time his contract expires. He won't exactly be a young pup, but if he makes it to the last year of his deal, he won't exactly be a drain on the team. For the next couple years though he'll be the anchor of that defensive line.

After the jump we look at the rest of the defensive line and the options on the market...

Aubrayo Franklin

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2009 - Aubrayo Franklin	16	2	14	1	10	0	26	11	37

Franklin's performance in 2009 might have some people thinking, "Oh it's just a contract year push." Well, I'd say it's been more like a two-year push, or at least a year and a half push for Aubrayo Franklin. After a very quiet first year with the 49ers, Aubrayo Franklin came on strong in 2008 and really made a name for himself in 2009. While Franklin isn't exactly a prototypical 3-4 nose tackle, he handles the role he's been assigned with great skill. I lost count of the number of times he burst through the offensive line to take down a running back in the backfield. He showed some decent pass defense abilities with 3 pass deflections and an interception. All in all, he's provided a strong, steady presence in the middle of the 3-4.

Of course, given his big push over the last two seasons, the issue naturally turns to money. Patrick Willis has gone on record in support of re-signing Aubrayo Franklin. Obviously there are other opinions to be considered, but Willis is one of the guys who has benefited from Franklin's strong play, and he knows it. At this point in time there are no updates on contract negotiations. The 49ers would appear content to simply slap him with the franchise tag and see what they can do from there. If the team uses the franchise tag they get a sizable window of time to try and re-sign him before the tender must be signed. The question in considering a long-term deal is whether he'll maintain such a high level of play. He turns 30 this August, so it's questionable even how long a deal you would want to give him.

If you were GM, how would you handle this contract situation? Obviously you can franchise him, but if you'd elect to do that, what else would you do in terms of long-term planning at the nose tackle position.

Isaac Sopoaga

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2009 - Isaac Sopoaga	16	1	8	0	0	0	19	10	29

Isaac Sopoaga is a guy I've always had a tough time assessing. Given his role in the 3-4, that's not exactly shocking. Of course, Justin Smith and Aubrayo Franklin play in the same 3-4 and people are quick to jump on their bandwagon (and rightfully so). Sopoaga doesn't put up the monster numbers, but he's another guy who seems to be doing what he needs to do whether it be opening up holes for the OLB behind him, or closing off a potential running lane for a running back. He's no superstar, but he seems to do the little things. I'd love to hear more informed opinions on the work of Isaac Sopoaga.

Given the need to develop Kentwan Balmer, the question is how this affects Isaac Sopoaga, among others. Thanks to a 5-year deal signed in 2008, Sopoaga is locked up through 2012 with reasonable cap figures. If Balmer can actually turn into a valuable asset, will Sopoaga drift into the background as a guy who provides some depth, or does the team move to some kind of platoon at the left defensive end spot?

Ray McDonald

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2009 - Ray McDonald	16	3	19	0	0	0	6	2	8

Ray McDonald doesn't put up mind-blowing statistics, but he appears to be turning into an impact player in the pass rush. McDonald is fast becoming known for his ability to block field goals (replay is about 25 seconds in). This season he managed a blocked field goal and a blocked extra point. He has proven himself to be a solid pass rush specialist. I doubt we'll ever see him as an everydown player, but he fills a specific role quite capably. McDonald has his struggles with jumping offsides at times, but generally when we hear his name called, it's because he's just made an impact play. You need those kind of role players to help take your team to the next level.

McDonald is actually a free agent after this coming season. His free agent status will depend on what happens with the collective bargaining agreement. If this offseason's rules roll over to 2011, McDonald would be a restricted free agent. Of course, who knows what will end up happening with the labor strife. For now, the 49ers could probably lock him up fairly cheap. Although, McDonald and his agent may think they can find somebody else out there who would give him more money and insert him into the starting lineup.

Kentwan Balmer

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2009 - Kentwan Balmer	11	0	0	0	0	0	5	7	12

Balmer's 2008 rookie season, while not completely lost, did not see a whole lot of development for him. When you're a defensive lineman who has almost as many kick returns as tackles, something clearly is amiss. As one of the up-men (not sure if that's the proper term) in the kick return unit, Balmer has ended up with 7 kick returns in his two seasons as a 49er. Of course, given that he was drafted in the first round as a defensive lineman, those return numbers have become more of a sick joke than anything else.

In 2009, before a torn labrum ended his season in early December, Balmer was slowly gotten more playing time. While it's probably too soon to label him a bust, another poor season in 2010 could end the Kentwan Balmer 49ers experience before it even gets going. I took a look at some of MM's player-by-player reviews for last season (or at least the ones I could find), and it's generally a mixed bag of comments. There are times it sounds like Balmer is making improvements, and there are also times when he struggles. I know one comment I've read a lot around here is that he really would have been better suited as a 4-3 defensive lineman. Any further thoughts on that? This coming training camp will be a big one for him. It seems like the team could rotate him along the line and mix in some time for him at nose tackle on occasion. Part of the problem with assessing his development is knowing where he actually belongs on the field.

Demetric Evans

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2009 - Demetric Evans	14	1.5	14	0	0	0	5	7	12

Evans signed a 2-year deal last offseason and has spent his time as a reserve lineman for the team. He'll be 31 at the beginning of the 2010 season and depending on what happens this offseason, he could quickly find himself on the bubble in training camp.

Ricky Jean-Francois

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2009 - Ricky Jean-Francois	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

As as seventh round pick, not a whole lot was expected of RJF, and he more or less met expectations. He saw some action on special teams and on the defense in late December, but otherwise was inactive the whole season. Even with low expectations, the 2010 training camp is big for him. He'll need to show he can actually bring something to the table and earn a roster spot. I really hope he can at least prove himself better than Demetric Evans. Evans made contributions last season, but it'd be nice to get a much younger guy in there in that rotational depth role.

Looking Forward
Free agency
First off, for a simple alphabetical rundown, check out this on defensive ends and defensive tackles. Football's Future provides some good info, but the one problem is that they've included a bunch of outside linebackers in the mix. So take it for what it's worth. At this point, given what the 49ers have in place, I don't know if I see them adding much more than camp bodies. Nonetheless there are some talented individuals on the market.

2010 NFL Draft
In looking at draft options, the defensive line requires a bit of massaging of the possibilities because many players make a position change when they get into the NFL. A lot of college defensive ends are way too undersized to be effective at the next level, so they become outside linebackers more often than not. Of course some might end up being effective as 4-3 defensive ends, but not as 3-4 defensive ends. For now I've posted the rankings for 3-4 DTs and 3-4 DEs. If you'd like to view the rankings for 4-3 DEs and DTs, click on the draft link above.

Overall Rank	3-4 Defensive Tackle	School
17	Dan Williams	Tennessee
49	Terrence Cody	Alabama
102	Cam Thomas	North Carolina
276	Jeff Owens	Georgia
324	Boo Robinson	Wake Forest
345	Martin Tevaseu	UNLV
355	Jaron Baston	Missouri
478	Abe Koroma	Western Illinois

Overall Rank	3-4 Defensive End	School
1	Ndamukong Suh	Nebraska
11	Carlos Dunlap	Florida
24	Jared Odrick	Penn State
34	Corey Wootton	Northwestern
98	Alex Carrington	Arkansas State
124	Arthur Jones	Syracuse
145	Mike Neal	Purdue
180	Vince Oghobaase	Duke
194	Linval Joseph	East Carolina
229	Clifton Geathers	South Carolina
318	Doug Worthington	Ohio State
364	John Fletcher	Wyoming

San Francisco 49ers All Decade Team: 2000-2009

Fooch — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 15:00:32 -0000

After some hemming and hawing, I finally decided to take a stab at putting together an all-decade team for the '00s. Although the 49ers have had some down seasons recently, the decade was book-ended by some incredibly talented players. I won't go into a lot of detail for the players, and for some I may have nothing to say. I'm using Pro Football Reference's amazing statistical sorter, which should provide some intriguing results. In addition, there is an intriguing site that provides team historical rosters.

For some positions, most notably the offensive line, it was a mix of objective and subjective analysis. I used PFR's search tool to find who started the most games at the position, and then basically tried to figure out in my head what I could remember of their play. So take it for what it's worth. Additionally, since the team used the 4-3 for a larger chunk of the decade, I went with that as the defense of choice. I was tempted to go with a 4-4 to accomodate both, like we did with our all-time team, but I changed my mind.

Offense
There were a few interesting decisions on this roster. At fullback, it was basically a battle between Fred Beasley and Moran Norris, who split the bulk of the workload last decade. At the #2 wide receiver spot, I went against popular opinion and went with one of my favorite under-appreciated 49ers in Tai Streets. Rice went in to honorable mention because he was only a 49er for 1 year this past decade. Just my own rule I suppose. In generally it was not too difficult to make some of these calls. The offensive line was the hardest without some hard stats to back it up, but basically if you were a 49er before 2005 you had a much better shot.

QB: Jeff Garcia
RB: Frank Gore
FB: Fred Beasley
WR: Terrell Owens
WR: Tai Streets
TE: Vernon Davis
OT: Scott Gragg
OG: Eric Heitmann
C: Jeremy Newberry
OG: Justin Smiley
OT: Derrick Deese

Honorable Mentions: WR Jerry Rice, OT Joe Staley, WR Arnaz Battle, TE Eric Johnson, FB Moran Norris, C Eric Heitmann (yes, he had a shot at two spots on this roster)

Defense
In looking at the defense, I didn't go with a particular scheme. It was a mix of gut feeling and statistical accumulation. Again, it's based on the 3-4 so even though we've got a nose tackle mixed in there, don't assume it's a problem because we're going with a 4-3 defense. Consider them in their individual performances. One interesting thing I found is that guys like Brandon Moore and Jamie Winborn had decent stats in total, but still fall behind Manny Lawson and Parys Haralson in my book.

DE: Andre Carter
DT: Bryant Young
DT: Aubrayo Franklin
DE: Justin Smith
OLB: Julian Peterson
MLB: Patrick Willis
OLB: Manny Lawson
CB: Ahmed Plummer
FS: Zack Bronson
SS: Tony Parrish
CB: Walt Harris

Honorable Mentions: LB Derek Smith, SS Michael Lewis, CB Nate Clements, DE John Engelberger

Special Teams
The kicker and punter were the easiest players to select on this entire roster. Statistically Andy Lee and Joe Nedney have dominated at their respective positions for the 49ers. There is no argument for anybody else in my opinion. The return men, on the other hand, have been a fairly motley crew. Hicks gets selected just based on the sheer totality of his numbers. Rossum was an honorable mention because he had one very solid year in 2008, even with his injuries. Let's hope the teens have someone who inspires us a bit more at the return position.

K: Joe Nedney
P: Andy Lee
KR: Maurice Hicks
PR: Jimmy Williams

Honorable Mentions: KR/PR Allen Rossum

Air Time: The NFL Pro Bowl

urnext — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 20:00:30 -0000

As I watched the Pro Bowl, my wife commented on how cool she thought it was that the were playing this game. I asked her what she was talking about and she told me how she thought it was a good idea that the NFL now had an All-Star game like the rest of the major sports. And then it hit me. In my 13 years of marriage I'd never sat down and watched the Pro Bowl. Once the hype of the Super Bowl is over, the Pro Bowl just feels like an after thought and I've moved on to other sports. But this year the Pro Bowl is part of the hype, complete with Drew Brees and Peyton Manning adding commentary. Then again, almost 40% of the rosters were made up of players replacing injured (see disinterested) players, or those who couldn't play because they were playing in the Super Bowl next week. With an anounced crowed of 70,697, the second largest ever to see a Pro Bowl game, Roger Goodell proclaimed the one year experiment a success. But considering the stands were half empty by the 3rd quarter, I'm guessing a lot of those tickets were given away. Either that or they're really defensive minded fans who can't stand the sight of D-lineman making a half hearted attempt to sack the QB. I know you don't want to get injured but can you at least pretend that you're trying. Professional wrestlers do it all the time. Justin Smith, who actually did end up with a sack, said during the game of the pace, "The pace is nice. You don't have to worry about working too hard." At least he's honest.

The NFC's coach, Wade Phillips, called it the "no-defense game". Both teams combined for 987 yards of offense, with 833 of those yards coming through the air. "They decided the defense was going to put their hands behind their backs, so you are going to have a lot of scoring," Phillips told reporters. "But that is what [the fans] wanted to see." The lack of defense so enraged Green Bay linebacker Nick Barnett, who wasn't chosen for the game, that he said through his twitter, "I promise this!! If I ever get in I don't care what is going on I will play like I always do!! One speed!!! Hard!!!" And in response to Barnett I will say, "OK!!! We get it!!! You don't have to yell so loud!!!" It's a good thing Andy Lee was the holder on FG/PAT attempts otherwise he would have only been in for two plays. Both teams combined to punt the ball 3 times.

But what surprised me more than the lack of defense, or penalties for that matter (their were only 2), was when I saw Vince Young, and then latter David Garrard, step out onto the field. Those guys are Pro Bowl QB's? Apparently Garrard made it as a 5th alternate. I'm not making that up. Manning couldn't play since he's playing in a little game next week, and Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger all turned it down. Jaguars GM Gene Smith gave this ringing endorsement of his QB's selection, "I know he probably didn't have a year like he did a couple years ago, if you want to be very critical of his play, but I'm happy for him for who he is." I'm not even sure what that means. But at least Garrard had a good game completing 8 of his 14 passes for 183 yards and 1 TD. Unlike Young who only completed 6 of his 12 passes for 47 yards and 1 interception for a QB rating of 25.3. Proving once again why he needs to be down on his knees every day thanking God for Chris Johnson. Assuming you believe in that sort of thing.

Aaron Rodgers started the game for the NFC and looked good throwing for 197 yards and 2 TD's, including a 7 yard TD to DeSean Jackson. Afterwards Rodgers joked with Jackson about what could have been if he stayed on for his Senior year and they had a chance to play together at Cal. Of course they could have played together with the 49ers as well if the 49ers hadn't passed on Rodgers in favor of Alex Smith, or passed on Jackson twice in favor of Kentwan Balmer and Chilo Rachal. And who says the 49ers have had some bad drafts?

The Ironmen of the game were the NFC's Tackles David Diehl and Jason Peters, who had to play every play since Vikings Tackle Bryant McKinnie was kicked off the team for not being able to take a break from his partying long enough to pose for the team photo. And this from a guy who's been begging to go for the last 8 years. Diehl said afterwards, "I'm honored to be here. Granted I wasn't expecting to play the whole game." Although I can't imagine it was too hard for them considering they do that every week during the season.

Their was also some talk that Chad Ochocinco, who I secretly believe was only invited to generate some buzz for the game, would get involved with the kicking game by getting a chance to either punt or kick a PAT. Since the AFC's punter, the Raiders very own Shane Lechler, only punted one time, their was no chance for Ochocinco to do that. But he could have gone in for the last PAT. However the coaches decided the game was too close. "The game was too close for me to go out there and have fun," Ochocinco said afterwards. "Usually, if we were up by a little bit, it would've been fun to go do it, but it was too close to even attempt it." Right, because winning this game was so important. I know the winning players make an extra $20,000, but considering the amount of money they're already making, it would be the equivalentof me walking home from my poker game with an extra $20.

In the end, the AFC held on to win 41-34 and the Texans QB Matt Schaub (13/17, 189 yards, 2 TD's) was named the MVP. But as is inevitably the case with these games, most of the talk featured what was going on in the off-season. And for the 49ers, no news is more welcomed the the retirement of Kurt Warner. Vernon Davis, who had 3 catches for 67 yards and looked like he was going to make the first down signal after every catch, said with a smile, "It means good things for the 49ers, bad things for the Cardinals." In response, the Cardinals Darnell Dockett said, "If we don't keep our talent, I'll be the first person to tell you, yeah. You look at our biggest rival and they are getting better -- with young guys, too. And if we don't keep our talent, I don't know." Sounds like they have a lot of confidence in Matt Leinart.

Extras: Frank Gore carried the ball 2 times for 4 yards and caught 2 passes for 11 yards.

Golden Nuggets: Well fine then.

Ninjames — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 11:00:44 -0000

Good morning everyone, Ninjames here on a dying laptop. I've got 18% battery power and I'd just love it if I could finish these Nuggets for you on time. Had a road trip today, picked up my friend in San Jose and I'm tiiiiiired. The Pro Bowl was yesterday and none of you updated me on how the game went--which totally upsets me because I specifically asked for updates (attention)! Either way, it seems Justin Smith and Vernon Davis played well--Frank Gore didn't get much time but I suppose nobody really expected him to. Sucks for his family who were (I imagine) there to see him. Either way, here's the few links I have for you right now.

Here's a pretty good summary of what went on at the pro bowl for the 49ers players and a video. (49ers.com)

The 49ers put up OK stats, nothing too great, but here's a look at them anyway. (49ersWebZone.com)

Here's the pro bowl game blog from the 49ers website. (49ers.com)

I would love to have McNabb in a 49ers jersey, anybody else agree? (SacBee.com)

Seems to be all I have right now.. Will turn on computer later to hopefully update, folks.