SB Nation - Justin Smith

Who Would You Take From The San Francisco 49ers?

Andrew602 — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 21:01:25 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Adding Patrick Willis to the Cardinals would bring more leadership and vastly improve the Cardinals run-defense.

With the Monday night match up not far ahead, we can start preparing to face the San Francisco 49ers. It may sound difficult to want any players from a division rival on the Arizona Cardinals, but in all honesty, the 49ers are filled with talent. Their 5-7 record may not show it, but the 49ers have one of the best defenses in the league and are starting to gel on offense. Remember that who you pick can be a young or older player, a starter or a back up, etc. You can also take their current contract status into consideration, as if we were actually signing the player. Also look at who may be leaving our team after this season. Here are some of my picks.

Before you look over the list, head over to Niners Nation to check out who they have interest in taking from our very own Cardinals and make sure to voice your opinion if you feel they're overlooking some certain players.

Patrick Willis, LB: This had to be the easiest/most obvious pick from the 49ers. He's a tackling machine(123 tackles leads the league) and has really developed to be one of the best linebackers in the league. Willis is a smart defender that can play the run(as their 5th ranked 95.4 rushing yards per game shows), and he's improving in coverage(6 PD, 2 INT). The former rookie of the year is only 24 years old, and with the uncertainty of Karlos Dansby returning next season, adding Willis would fill a tremendous need.

Vernon Davis, TE: As much as it pains me to say, I would like to have Vernon Davis as a Cardinal. He seems to have turned a new leaf this season and it's showed on the field. Already being a dominant run-blocker, Davis has turned it up a notch at the receiving end and is currently tied with Larry Fitzgerald with a league-leading 10 receiving touchdowns on the year. Adding Davis would surely fix our tight end situation and give us a young receiving/blocking tight end for years. Doesn't it seem like most teams have better tight ends then the Cardinals?

Aubrayo Franklin, DT: Franklin has gradually developed into one of the best run-stuffing defensive tackles in the league. He's also one of the more underrated defenders on the 49ers. The 49ers have had much success stopping the run and much of that stems from Franklin's ability to fill the defensive gaps. He seems to be ever-improving all facets of his game, as he's recorded 2 sacks on the year and also has 1 interception. With Bryan Robinson's age becoming a liability, and the uncertainty of Alan Branch and Gabe Watson, adding Franklin would leave no Cardinals fans worried about the defensive tackle position.

Joe Staley, OT: Staley returns to action this upcoming Monday and the former 1st round pick has been missed by the 49ers. Although Barry Sims has filled in with solid play at tackle, he's not as well rounded as Staley has been the last two seasons. He's still developing but his pass-protection would be greatly welcomed in Arizona. In the seven games this year, Staley has only allowed 2 sacks and hasn't committed any penalties. With how Levi Brown and Mike Gandyhave fared this season, adding Staley would fill a large void.

Honorable mentions: Nate Clements, Justin Smith, Manny Lawson

Ok so that's my list for this week. Don't forget to see what the Niners fans are saying and who they'd pick over at Niners Nation. Who would you take from the 49ers and why?

Week 12 Statistical Matchup Review: Jaguars @ 49ers

Florida Danny — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 01:00:16 -0000

Before I begin the matchup review, I just want to make a little bit of an editorial comment that seems pretty relevant in lieu of the past couple of weeks...

Some of you have been kind enough to give me kudos for practically writing a game recap before the game was even played the last 2 weeks. For sure, I've looked like Nostradamus with a blogging platform. However, I have to tell you, I'm reluctant to take much credit because it was the stats - not my wisdom - that resulted in my admittedly eerie accuracy.

What I will take credit for - and this is where I'd like to editorialize - is understanding that the stats, by themselves, are meaningless without proper application. Like "guns don't kill people, people kill people," the same can be said for statistics: "stats don't lie to people, people lie to people." Keep in mind that, each week, I'm looking at about 135 statistical matchups for the Niner game, almost all of which suggest one team has an advantage over the other. For instance, I could have easily told you last week that the Niners had an advantage on DEF given that JAX's OFF DVOA between the 40s was ranked 23rd, whereas SF's DEF DVOA between the 40s was ranked 5th. But what meaning would that have had? I'd say pretty much none. Sure they're two stats that are saying something, but what practical importance would they have had on the game as it was played? How could the 49ers have possibly exploited that matchup? By forcing JAX's OFF into the middle of the field? I mean, what's the DEF going to do? Let JAX gain yards when backed up deep in their own end just so they get them into their sweet spot?

So my point here is that the key to statistical analysis is in the practical application. The stats are just numbers; it takes the interpretation of a human being to prevent them from becoming lies. In general, interpretation is about looking at the stats, and seeing how applicable they are to the real world. In football, it's about viewing stats through the lens of Xs and Os, player skill sets, game plans, and everything else one would consider non-statistical.

In the context of game matchups, interpretation is about looking at each individual statistical matchup, and then determining whether there's a likelihood that a given pattern is going to have an effect on the actual game we're previewing. It's about detecting patterns of advantageous and disadvantageous matchups, asking oneself whether each team's wins and losses have been characterized by a given pattern, and asking oneself whether each team has the players and coaching style to exploit/nullify a given pattern.

This is what I try to do here on NN: give you the stats, give you my opinions based on the stats, and give you the non-statistical reasons why I don't think I'm hitting you with statistical smoke and mirrors.

With that said, let's begin with the 49ers-Jaguars matchup review...

After the jump, I'll write a tribute to myself chock-full of pats on the back and I-told-you-so's. Wait, no, um, inner voice, inner voice...What I meant was, I'll review the matchups...

TEAM MATCHUP # 2: PASSING IN THE RED ZONE

Before the game, I told you that the 49ers' OFF had a 111.8% DVOA advantage if they passed in the red zone, and the 49ers' DEF had a 156.6% advantage if the Jaguars passed in the red zone. Therefore, they needed to pass the ball in the red zone, and put JAX in passing situations if they reached the red zone. So how'd they do?

The Niners' OFF had 9 total snaps inside the red zone. Of these 9, they passed the ball 8 times, or about 90% of the time. Sounds like they followed my instructions. Of their 8 red zone passing plays, 5 were unsuccessful; but, of the 3 that were successful, 2 went for TDs. In other words, the 49ers scored a TD once every 4 times they threw the ball in the red zone. Taken together, I'd say both the frequency and success of their red zone passing suggests they indeed exploited their advantageous matchup against the Jaguars.

Meanwhile, JAX's OFF also had 9 snaps inside the red zone (none of which came during the first half, by the way). Overall, only 2 of these 9 plays, or 22.2%, were successful. However, both of their successful red zone plays came on runs, meaning that their success rate on red zone passing plays was 0%! Indeed, JAX's OFF totaled -2 yards, -26 net yards, 2 sacks allowed, and 2 fumbles when they passed the ball in the red zone. To say that the Niners' DEF exploited their advantage in this matchup would be putting it unbelievably mildly.

TEAM MATCHUP # 3: SHORT-YARDAGE RUNNING

In contrast to their red zone passing advantage on both sides of the ball, I mentioned before the game that the 49ers had a matchup disadvantage on both sides of the ball when it came to short-yardage running. Therefore, my remedy was that the OFF needed to pass the ball in short-yardage situations, and the DEF needed to keep JAX out of short-yardage situations.

Watching the game, there were 3 plays that made me say, "Wow, the 49ers are destroying the Jags today." All 3 had to do with this matchup:

On 4th and 1 from the JAX 37, Alex Smith hits Vernon Davis for a 30-yard completion.
On 3rd and 1 from the SF 13, Maurice Jones-Drew runs for -1 yards.
On the very next play, 4th and 2 from the SF 14, Justin Smith and Parys Haralson sack David Garrard, who fumbles.

So, the Niners' OFF nullified their disadvantage by passing the ball on 4th and 1, the Niners' DEF played better than expected by stopping MJD, which induced the Jags' into make a strategy-defying, matchup-ignoring decision (i.e., passing the ball) on the next play. When a team is exploiting their advantages and preventing the other team from exploiting theirs, it's a recipe for a blowout, and that's what we saw on Sunday.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 1: FRANK GORE VS. JAX PASS DEF

For this matchup, I noted that Frank Gore is one of the best pass-catching RBs in the league this year, and JAX's DEF is one of the worst at defending passes to RBs. Therefore, what I wanted to see was Jimmy Raye involving Gore heavily in the passing game.

It didn't take long for JR to make me happy: on the first play of the game, Smith completed a pass to Gore for 7 yards. Then, on the 2nd play, they threw it to Gore again! In case you're not counting, that's two plays, and two passes to Gore. In fact, 3 of Smith's first 4 passes, and 6 of his first 9, were to Gore! All in all, Gore was targeted on 10 of Smith's 41 passes, which means a full 25% of the passing game involved throws to Gore. Seriously, kudos to JR for reading my matchup preview.

Now, some of you might say, "Well, Gore only 2 yards per carry and 3 yards per target, so they couldn't have done that great in this matchup. Of course, you'd be right: only 2 of his 10 targets resulted in successful plays. However, in line with what I said in the intro, simply throwing the ball to Gore was what the pattern of stats (i.e., Gore's receiving advantage, JAX's run DEF DVOA, the OL's horrible ALY, SF's increased use of the shotgun, etc.), as well as Gore's skill set dictated that they should have done. Not to mention the fact that Gore lone TD in the game was of the receiving variety. So, there were both statistical and non-statistical ways that throwing the ball to Gore might have improved the 49ers chances of winning, and they did, in fact, score points using this strategy. Therefore, once again, I think they hammered a key matchup.

MISCELLANEOUS MATCHUPS

I'll keep these short and bullet-point style:

The 49ers had a matchup disadvantage against JAX in their nemesis, 1st-quarter OFF. I said they might have trouble again starting the game well. Turns out they did: 4.25 yards per play, 0 TDs in the 1st quarter.
JAX's DEF had been really bad when losing. I said this might offset how bad SF's OFF is while winning. Turns out it did: only 4.48 yards per play while winning, but 2 TDs to offset it.
JAX's DEF had been the worst in the league against shotgun OFF. I said the 49ers might want to use more shotgun. Turns out they did: 55.7% of their offensive plays were in shotgun, as compared to 40.0% going into the game.

BOTTOM LINE

Based on their performance in the key matchups during Sunday's game, here are the main reasons why the 49ers beat the ~~Packers~~ Jaguars:

They passed the freaking ball!
They passed the freaking ball in 3rd & short situations!
They made JAX pass the freaking ball in 3rd & short situations!
They passed the freaking ball to Frank Gore!
They passed the freaking ball from the shotgun!

Weird, that really looks familiar. Oh, right. It's what my before-the-fact interpretation of the stats said they needed to do to win. Like I said, no self-congratulaions in this post. ;-)

p.s. In the preview post, I threatened to apply for the 49ers' soon-to-be-vacant offensive coordinator position if they didn't throw the ball at least 40 times against the Jaguars. I'm seriously beginning to believe JR actually did read that post: SF threw it exactly 41 times, just enough to save his job...and keep me in mine.

*DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Based on his Nostradamus-like prediction abilities the past 2 weeks, should Florida Danny buy a lottery ticket tomorrow?

2010 Pro Bowl Ballot: Your 49ers need you

Fooch — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 18:00:14 -0000

Consider this your daily reminder to vote for your San Francisco 49ers on the 2010 Pro Bowl ballot. Remember that you can vote for as few or as many positions on the ballot as you want. So if you just want to vote for Vernon Davis, Aubrayo Franklin, Patrick Willis, and Andy Lee among others, it's quite simple to do. Most days it will be a simple FanShot, but for today I thought I'd put together the cases for a few of our favorite 49ers. I realize most people aren't all that interested in the Pro Bowl game itself, but national recognition is always welcome, especially when the players truly deserve it.

Vernon Davis: Davis continued his breakout season with 6 catches for 69 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville. On the season, Davis has 57 receptions, 670 yards and 9 touchdowns. Those numbers in the NFC for respectively third, first and first. Davis also has 10 catches for over twenty yards, which is also good for first in the league. There are bigger national names (Gonzalez and Witten), but I really think Davis is having the best year of any NFC tight end.

Patrick Willis: What else needs to be said about Mr. Consistently Great? Even as the defense around him improves, Bamm Bamm continues to put up obscene tackle totals, while make big plays across the field, all game long. Among linebackers, Willis is second in the NFC with 107 total tackles, tied for eleventh with 3 sacks (tied for most among NFC ILBs), tied for first with 8 pass deflections, second in interceptions, is one of two NFC ILBs with a touchdown, and also has forced a pair of fumbles. The man remains an absolute playmaking beast.

Andy Lee: Andy Lee for MVP indeed. Lee's leg is a freakish weapon for the 49ers. We'd all like more offense, but if the offense stalls out, we know Lee will more likely than not pin a team back. Jacksonville even elected to take a 5 yard penalty at the end of a return rather than let Lee have a second chance to pin them deep. Among NFC punters, Lee is first in gross and net average, and this comes on a league-leading 66 punts. Not a great stat for the offense, but it shows an amazing level of consistency from Lee. He's second with 10 downed punts, and fourth with 20 punts inside the 20. On returns, opposing teams are only getting 5 or so yards per, showing an ability to not out-kick his coverage.

Aubrayo Franklin: Franklin has quietly (outside of the Bay Area it's quiet) put together an immensely entertaining season. A nose tackle in the 3-4 is expected to do a lot of the dirty work, but Franklin has stepped up to become a playmaker for this defense. It's hard to truly assess his work because a lot of time his play involves opening holes for the inside linebackers to make plays. Individually, Franklin has 28 tackles (5 for a loss), 2 sacks and a huge redzone interception against Chicago. However, on top of that is the fact that one could argue he's been a key in the 49ers ability to stuff the inside run. The 49ers have given up 3.6 yards per carry (tied for 2nd in the NFL), and most rushing damage has come outside the tackles. Franklin has either plugged up the middle, or provided space for Willis and Spikes to shut down the middle. Some argue it's a walk-year performance, but he really began building this early last season.

One guy I didn't include, but probably deserves more recognition than he gets is Justin Smith. Smith has 40 tackles, 2.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles on the season but doesn't get much publicity for the Pro Bowl. The problem for him, like a guy like Aubrayo Franklin, is that a 3-4 defensive end isn't exactly a glamor position. However, every game Justin Smith does something that stands out as a huge play. I think he's a guy worth including on your Pro Bowl ballot. So, when you get a chance, head over and submit your Pro Bowl ballot, multiple times if you'd like. Remember that you don't need to fill out every single position.

Football Outsiders and the 49ers: Player Stats through Week 11

Florida Danny — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 15:06:28 -0000

I was looking through my previous posts and just realized that I haven't given you guys a full-fledged player stats article since the bye week. A lot's changed since then, especially on OFF, so it's just as well I've given the new additions enough time to give us a valid look at their performance. Nevertheless, consider this my atonement. It'll be informative...and short! That's definitely a win-win, no?

This week, QBs need a total of at least 83 passes to qualify as having valid FO stats, RBs need at least 88 carries, WRs need at least 35 targets, and TEs need at least 17 targets. Isaac Bruce has been relegated to "The Invisible Man," but his replacement, Jason Hill, doesn't have nearly enough targets (only 7) to qualify. Also, although Shaun Hill qualifies, it's kind of pointless to talk about his stats. Therefore, the players I'll be breaking down this week are Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, and Vernon Davis. I'll also, of course, be presenting FO stats for the OL, the defensive front 7 (DF7), and the secondary.

QUARTERBACKS

Here are Smith's stats through 167 passes this season (bold = ranked 8th or better [top 25% of starters]; italics = ranked 25th or worse [bottom 25% of starters]):

DYAR per Pass	Rank	EYds per Pass	Rank	DVOA	Rank
0.20	25	5.23	25	-7.9%	25
YAR per Pass	Rank	Yds per Pass	Rank	VOA	Rank
0.12	25	5.81	24	-9.2%	25

You'll notice that I've changed DYAR and YAR into "per-opportunity" statistics. Doing this (a) removes the advantage of having more opportunities to accrue yardage; and (b) allows us to, in a way, look at how valuable a player is to his offense each time his offense gives him an opportunity to show his value. I think that's pretty useful to know.

From the uniformity of Smith's rankings, we can rename him "25th best QB in the NFL." Although this doesn't look so good for him, I'll point out a couple of things that make Smith's glass half-full. First, keep in mind that Smith has a positive DYAR/P, meaning that he's actually more valuable to the 49ers' OFF on a per-pass basis than an average replacement would be. In other words, an average replacement would only be averaging 5.61 yards per pass (i.e., 5.81 minus 0.20), so it's good news for the Niners that Smith is the one out there taking snaps. Second, there are only 25 QBs in the NFL who have a positive DYAR/P, so you can say Smith is among the group of NFL QBs who should not be replaced by an average backup.

Third, keep in mind that, when Smith took over at QB, Shaun Hill had a negative DYAR/P of -0.48 (would currently rank 31st), and a much more negative DVOA of -27.1% (currently ranks 35th). Therefore, what we can say about Smith is that, although there's plenty of room for improvement, his stats provide ~~indisputable~~ evidence that Mike Singletary made the right move in making Smith the 49ers' starting QB. Of course, the move seems to have been about 7 weeks late, but that's a matter for a different day.

After the jump, I'll present and discuss the rest of the stats ...

RUNNING BACKS

Here are Gore's stats through 112 carries so far this season (bold = ranked 8th or better; italics = ranked 25th or worse):

DYAR per Run	Rank	EYds per Run	Rank	DVOA	Rank
0.58	17	4.38	22	6.2%	16
YAR per Run	Rank	Yds per Run	Rank	VOA	Rank
0.48	20	5.46	3	3.6%	18

The moral of the story in this table is three-fold. First, he's over half-a-yard more valuable to the Niners' OFF than an average replacement, who would be giving the team 4.88 yards per run instead of Gore's 5.46. Second, despite the fact that his yards are more valuable than those from an average replacement, he's still only the 17th-most valuable RB in the NFL right now, which goes to show you how minimized his role has become in the OFF.

Finally, and most importantly, it's clear that Gore's astronomical Yards per Run stat is a statistical mirage due to the fact that raw NFL stats assume every yard is created equally; which you should know by now is simply not true. One thing his raw rushing average totally ignores is the effect of game situation. To see what I mean, take a look at the discrepancy between his Yards per Run ranking and his EYds per Run ranking. EYds accounts for both game situation and opponent, but based on the small discrepancy between his DVOA and VOA - which only differ because of opponent adjustments -we can basically rule out strength of schedule as a factor. Therefore, game situation is the major adjustment factor that causes Gore's EYds per Run to be over 1 yard lower than his raw rushing average.

A second thing his rushing average ignores is the difference between a mean, a mode, and a median. In statistics, a mean is just the raw average of a set of numbers, a mode is the most-typical number in the set, and a median is the 50th percentile of the set (i.e., the number smack dab in the middle if you listed the set in ascending order).

Obviously, the mean of Gore's carries is just his raw rushing average of 5.46. To get the mode and median, I've taken the time, using play-by-plays, to find out the yardage Gore gained on each of his 112 carries this season. Much to no one's surprise, the mode and median expose his average's mirage. Specifically, the mode of Gore's carries this season (i.e., his most-typical gain on a given carry) is only 3 yards. Similarly, the median of Gore's carries this season (i.e., the yardage value smack dab in the middle of all 112 carries) is also 3 yards.

So, you see, Gore's rushing average is so high because it totally ignores the fact that he's had 4 carries of over 40 yards this season. In fact, if you take out those 4 carries, his raw rushing average decreases all the way down to 3.21, which, given Gore's mode and median, is a much more accurate reflection of what the 49ers' OFF can expect from him on a given carry. And just so you don't think I'm being unfair by replacing those 4 runs with 0 total yards, his average is still only 3.46 if I instead replace them with 10 yards each. Of course, now I'm probably being too generous because Gore has only 10 carries this season of 10 yards or more (aka only 8.9% of his carries).

Here's why this whole mean, mode, and median thing matters. FO's research shows that, all else being equal, a RB who's consistently "successful" from carry to carry is better for an OFF than a RB who's of the "boom or bust" variety. So far in 2009, Frank Gore has clearly been the latter according to his mode and median. That's because, based on the methods behind DVOA and years of football research, a 3-yard gain can only be "successful" on 2nd & 5 or less and 3rd & 3 or less. In every other down-and-distance situation, Gore's typical 3-yard run is an "unsuccessful" carry. And just in case you don't believe me, here's one more stat for you: Only 39% of Gore's carries this season have been "successful" given the down and distance in which they occurred, which ranks him - wait for it - 32nd among qualifying RBs.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Crabtree's our new #1 WR, so I'll present his stats first. Here they are through 36 targets so far this season (bold = ranked 16th or better; italics = ranked 49th or worse):

DYAR per Target	Rank	EYds per Target	Rank	DVOA	Rank
-0.22	60	5.47	67	-15.7%	62
YAR per Target	Rank	Yds per Target	Rank	VOA	Rank
0.03	58	8.11	33	-12.3%	58

Obviously, this doesn't look very good. I probably don't have to say this but, I'm not worried about Crabs in the least bit, regardless of what these stats say. And, basically, what they're saying is that he's (a) a rookie, and (b) he's been making a lot of pretty-meaningless catches this season. We've seen that he has the talent to be much better than what's displayed above; he just needs time and competent offensive technicians at OC and QB. So the key for me is seeing whether, and by how much, these stats improve as those things emerge. Averaging over 7 Targets per Game is a good start on the "time" front.

Here are Morgan's stats through 43 targets so far this season:

DYAR per Target	Rank	EYds per Target	Rank	DVOA	Rank
0.16	55	6.56	54	-10.5%	55
YAR per Target	Rank	Yds per Target	Rank	VOA	Rank
0.42	50	7.09	51	-7.3%	50

When last I gave you Morgan's stats, which were based on only 16 Targets, his DYAR/T was 2.27 (20th) and his DVOA was 17.2% (also 20th). To say that the last 27 targets have not been kind to him would be a gross understatement. Again, however, I wouldn't be too hard on Morgan right now. As was the case with Crabtree, Morgan's still a youngster, so one thing he needs is time. Furthermore, his last 27 Targets perfectly coincide with Crabtree taking his spot in the starting lineup, the byproduct of which was Morgan's switch from one WR position to the other. In other words, he's learning an entirely new WR position, so, for all intents and purposes, he's a rookie all over again. Honestly, irrespective of the stats, I'm more hopeful about the 49ers' WR corps than I've been at any time since the days of Terrell Owens, Jerry Rice.

TIGHT ENDS

Here are VD's stats through 83 targets (bold = ranked 8th or better; italics = ranked 25th or worse):

DYAR per Target	Rank	EYds per Target	Rank	DVOA	Rank
1.08	17	7.53	21	10.4%	18
YAR per Target	Rank	Yds per Target	Rank	VOA	Rank
1.10	19	7.24	22	10.6%	18

VD's stats are a good illustration of why looking at per-target stats is a more accurate way of going about things. That's because he's actually ranked 10th among TEs in total DYAR right now, but being the most-targeted TE in the NFL has given him an opportunity advantage over the competition. This is not to say that the per-target stats above are some kind of mirage like Gore's were. Rather, it just shows the importance of factoring out targets when looking at the stats; which I've done for you in the table.

The important thing to take away from the table is that VD's DYAR/T and DVOA are easily the best among skill-position players on the 49ers. His targets have been both valuable and efficient this season, and that's what matters most. His lower-than-expected rankings are just a byproduct of the fact that VD's been targeted over twice as many times as the average qualified TE. I'd say being that much of a focus in the game plan is as good a measure as any when it comes to how "valuable" VD is to SF's OFF. Oh, and one other thing, all of the stats in the table are higher than what they were when Smith took over in Week 7.

OFFENSIVE LINE

I already showed you yesterday how much the OL sucks based on their overall ALY, so all that's left is their directional ALY stats. Here's the now-familiar chart, except I've added the now-familiar italics/bold scheme:

Compared to what they were since the last time I presented them, the OFF has fallen even further in love with running up the middle, and the OL has improved considerably on LE runs at the expense of performance in all other directions. You already know my feelings about the "we <3 the middle" thing, but I have absolutely no clue why they're so good at blocking on LE runs when compared to other directions or about why they've improved so much in LE blocking. My only guess is that their RBs have only run to the outside left 13 times this season, so that small of a sample size means (a) their LE ALY might be skewed by a couple of long runs in that direction, and (b) there's a whole lot of volatility in the stat from one carry to the next. I welcome your theories in the comments section.

DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN

I told you yesterday that the Niners' DF7 is flat-out awesome. Below is a chart showing the DF7's awesomeness in specific run directions (bold = top 8; italics = bottom 8):

There are a couple of interesting things shown in this chart. First, when compared with the last time I presented them, the DF7 has gotten unbelievably better in all directions except RE, and are actually now in the top 8 on runs behind LT, where they used to be ranked 29th. Aside from the LT ALY, this is bona fide improvement. However, with LT ALY, this is as much a "regression to the mean" thing as it is bona fide improvement because the DF7 has, to date, still only faced 10 RB carries in that direction. Justin Smith couldn't have been that bad before, after all. Also, similar to what I said about VD, the fact that SF opponents have only run the ball 10 times behind LT says more about how valuable Justin Smith and Patrick Willis are to their run DEF than their LT ALY ever could.

Second, let's go back to that increasing RE ALY. Back when the DF7 was ranked #1 at stopping runs to the outside right, I made the point that it had a lot to do with Nate Clements' SS-like ability to help out in the run game. Therefore, to me, the fact that they've dropped 10 spots in the rankings since Week 5 seems wholly explained by its coincidence with Clements' absence. As much as I love Terell Brown, he - nor most any other CB - is even in the same universe as Clements when it comes to run-stopping ability. The good news is that they've only dropped 10 spots since Clements got benched/injured, and are still ranked in the top half of the league. Let's see if that continues with Dre "Premature Celebration" Bly taking Brown's place on that side.

DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD

Finally, here's the chart showing stats for the secondary against various intended receivers:

Speaking of Brown's demotion, it turns out that the Niners' secondary actually improved after he took over for Clements: they're now 13.6% more efficient against #1 WRs. Furthermore, they're now the #1 secondary in the league when it comes to defending their opponent's #2 WRs, and have moved up from 6th to 3rd in defending TEs. So, let me get this straight. After Brown replaces Clements, the secondary shows an across-the-board journey into ReallyDamnGoodLand, and the DF7 hasn't lost much in terms of stopping runs to the outside right. So what's the pressing roster move that needs to be made after the Packers loss? Benching Brown and promoting Bly, of course. Makes perfect sense. Seriously, as much as I realize that NFL coaches know more about football than all of the fans combined, it drives me absolutely insane when the stats so clearly show one thing, and they do the exact opposite.

Oh, and by the way, what I've just shown you about the effect of Clements' absence kind of proves my point after 5 games about perhaps moving Clements to SS in the future. It sure looks like the Niners' DEF hasn't lost much without him at LCB. How about letting him focus on the one good thing he's awesome at: stopping the run?

BOTTOM LINE

OK, so through 10 games, we can draw the following conclusions about several players on the 2009 49ers:

Alex Smith: Better than Hill.
Frank Gore: Victim of "up the middle for no gain."
Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan: Give them time.
Vernon Davis: The 49ers' OFF.
The OL: Still not "imposing their will."
The DF7: "Imposing their will."
The secondary: Better without Nate.

Later this morning: 49ers-Jaguars game matchup.

**DVOA, DYAR, EYds, and ALY statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: A Prospector's Guide

Fooch — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:00:14 -0000

vs.

The 49ers look to get back on the winning track against a quirky Jacksonville Jaguars squad. I have always been intrigued by the Jaguars because something doesn't add up about them. They are 6-4, but something just seems off about that. Going through their 2009 statistics (listed at the bottom), I noticed that they've been outscored this season by 36 points. The only other team above .500 with a negative scoring differential is Denver (-13)...and I've always questioned Denver's early success (which is certainly bearing fruit now). Will the Jaguars keep it up the rest of the season?

The 49ers host the Jaguars in what will be the 3rd meeting between the two teams in the series, and the first at Candlestick Park. The last time the two teams squared off was in 2005 in Jacksonville, when the Jaguars defeated the 49ers 10-9.

The 49ers enter the upcoming game following a 30-24 loss to the Packers at Lambeau Field last weekend. In that game, the Packers defense was able to hold off a second half surge by the 49ers offense to seal the victory. QB Alex Smith connected on three touchdown passes in the final two quarters of play, which included a 38-yard strike to rookie
WR Michael Crabtree for his first career touchdown, a 24-yard toss to TE Vernon Davis for his 8th score of the season and a 10-yard pass to RB Frank Gore, marking his 4th consecutive game with a touchdown.

The 49ers have won 6 out of their last 8 games at Candlestick Park. In those games, San Francisco has rushed for over 100 yards in all but one contest.

49ers-Jaguars Connections
Coaching Connections
• 49ers assistant strength coach Mark Uyeyama worked as a graduate assistant from 2001-2002 and an assistant in 2003 at Arizona State under Jaguars offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who was then head coach. Jaguars defensive line coach Ted Monachino served in the same position with Arizona State during that time.
• 49ers QB Shaun Hill was coached by Jaguars assistant head coach/tight ends Mike Tice from 2002-2005 when Tice was the head coach for the Minnesota Vikings.
• 49ers rookie RB Glen Coffee was recruited and coached by Jaguars QBs coach Mike Shula when Shula was the head coach at Alabama (2003-06).
• 49ers DE Justin Smith was coached by Jaguars LBs coach Mark Duffner in Cincinnati from 2001-2002 when Duffner was the defensive coordinator there.

RAMS RE-UNITED - 49ers WR Isaac Bruce and CB Dre’ Bly were teammates with Jaguars WR Torry Holt for the St. Louis Rams from 1999-2002, winning a Super Bowl together in 1999. Bruce and Holt remained with the Rams and played together until 2007.

NOR-CAL CONNECTIONS – RB Maurice Jones-Drew was born in Anticoh, and still calls it home. Jones-Drew prepped at national powerhouse De La Salle High School, which won a record 151 straight games from 1992-2003. During the three years Jones-Drew starred there (1999-2002), he kept the streak alive, never losing a game.

HELLO AGAIN – 49ers SS Michael Lewis and Jaguars T Tra Thomas were teammates in Philadelphia from 2002-2006. Lewis, Thomas and Jaguars S Sean Considine all played together with the Eagles in 2005 and 2006. 49ers LB Takeo Spikes played on the same defense with Considine and was a teammate of Thomas’ while in Philadelphia in 2007.

GOLDEN DOMERS - 49ers WR Arnaz Battle and Jaguars T Jordan Black were teammates at Notre Dame for four seasons (1999-2002).

NATIONAL CHAMPS - 49ers DT Ray McDonald was a teammate of Jaguars DE Derrick Harvey and S Reggie Nelson at Florida. They were part of a National Championship team in 2006.

ROCKY TOP - 49ers NT Aubrayo Franklin and Jaguars DT John Henderson played on the same defensive line at the University of Tennessee in 2001.

FORMER 49ERS - Jaguars DL Atiyyah Ellison spent two years with the 49ers, serving on the active roster in 2007, and as a member of the practice squad in 2008.

Series Highlights
Matchups: 2
Series Record: Jaguars Lead Series 2-0
49ers Home Record vs. Jaguars: None
First Meeting: 9/12/99, Jaguars win 41-3
Last Meeting: 12/18/05, Jaguars win 10-9
Current Streak: Lost 2
Longest 49ers Win Streak: None
Longest Jaguars Win Streak: 2
Most 49ers Points: 9 (12/18/05)
Most Jaguars Points: 4 (9/12/99)
49ers Shutouts: None
Jaguars Shutouts: None

JACKSONVILLE 10, SAN FRANCISCO 9
At Jacksonville, FL, December 18, 2005

The San Francisco 49ers lost 10-9 to Jacksonville in what Head Coach Mike Nolan termed the most physical game of the season. The 49ers entered the game with six rookies in the starting lineup, including four on offense. Rookie RB Frank Gore started in place of the injured RB Kevan Barlow (knee) and gained over 100 combined yards with 79 yards rushing and 57 yards receiving. His most impressive play was at the end of the 1st half when he caught a screen pass from QB Alex Smith and raced down the right sideline for a 47-yard gain to the Jacksonville 30-yard line to set up a 47-yard FG by K Joe Nedney with one second left in the 1st half.

The 49ers opened the game with an 8-play, 80-yard drive that ended in the first of three Nedney FGs for a 3-0 lead. A big defensive play helped the 49ers take the 3-0 lead into the 2nd quarter. On 4th-and-1 from the San Francisco 6-yard line, DE Marques Douglas stopped FB Greg Jones for no gain and the 49ers took over on downs. Jacksonville converted two, 3rd-down plays on a 71-yard drive in the 2nd quarter that ended when QB David Garrard broke free from LB Julian Peterson on his way to a 13-yard TD for a 7-3 lead. The 49ers regained possession deep in their own territory with just 24 seconds left to play in the 1st half. Instead of taking a knee and allowing time to run out, the 49ers attempted a high percentage screen pass with the hopes of being able to break one for a big play. A pass from Smith to Gore in the right flat went for a 47-yard gain, with Gore sprinting down the sideline to the Jacksonville 30-yard line with 6 seconds left to play. Nedney nailed a 47-yard FG for a 7-6 halftime deficit.

After a scoreless 3rd quarter, the 49ers took a 9-7 lead on the first play of the 4th quarter with a 33-yard FG by Nedney. Smith completed a 28-yard pass to WR Johnnie Morton to get the 49ers in FG range. Jacksonville responded by taking the ensuing kick and advancing on a 10-play, 47-yard drive that ended in a 32-yard FG for a 10-9 lead. The Jaguars drive was aided when Nedney’s kickoff went out of bounds, allowing Jacksonville to start the drive at their own 40-yard line. The 49ers gained just 15 yards on their next four drives and committed one turnover when Smith was intercepted.

2009 Statistics

49ERS (rank)		JAGUARS (rank)
4-6 (2nd NFCW)	Record	6-4 (2nd AFCS)
20.8 (19th)	Points per game	19.9 (21st)
278.5 (27th)	Total Offense	354.0 (12th)
99.0 (24th)	Rushing Offense	136.3 (6th)
179.5 (23rd)	Passing Offense	217.7 (17th)
28:44 (21st)	Possession Avg	30:46 (11th)
21.0 (17th)	Points allowed/gm	23.5 (23rd)
350.8 (22nd)	Total Defense	356.9 (23rd)
94.7 (6th)	Rushing Defense	112.1 (17th)
256.1 (30th)	Passing Defense	244.8 (25th)
19 (t-21st)	Sacks	10 (32nd)
47.9 (2nd)	Punting Avg (Gross)	41.7 (26th)
0 (t-15th)	Turnover Differential	0 (t-15th)

49ers-Packers: The World According to Madden

Ninjames — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 19:00:12 -0000

Aaaand, I'm back on for the Saturday Simulation of the Sunday games. Fooch sent me an email and my replacement er... needed a replacement, so you're back to reading my colorful commentary! Basically I put in Madden NFL 10 for the Xbox 360 and set it to All-Madden and spectate a game in its entirety and provide commentary. Now, Madden isn't a perfect simulation, but it is a step up from past installments and this is just an interesting take on things as opposed to a raw simulation.

The latest roster update for the game actually occurred either late last night or early this morning and I've got it. I took the liberty of moving a few players out of the lineup and switched around some of the depth to make it more accurate. For instance Nate Clements was still in the lineup, now he's off the depth chart. The WRs were a bit out of order but after #1 and #2 it's hard to distinguish who goes where anyway. Currently I have Isaac Bruce at #3 and Jason Hill at #4. Arnaz Battle will likely only see the field on returns.

Before I begin let me just express my gratitude to the folks who do the roster updates, the big guy Aubrayo Franklin got his second boost in as many updates! When Madden NFL 10 shipped Aubrayo Franklin was rated a measly 66 overall, the lowest starting NT in the game. An average starter is around 76-78. With the update a few weeks ago Franklin got some recognition and went up to 79, and much to my (awesome) surprise when I got on today Franklin was updated all the way to 88! Lets see how he performs...

49ers First Drive The Niners win the toss and elect to receive. Robinson takes it and downs the ball for a touchback. Alex Smith leads the 49ers out to the 20-yard line. It's a handoff to the right side and Frank Gore takes it with superb blocking 12 yards before being taken down. 1st and 10 and the team lines up in I formation. Gore takes another handoff and looks to be good for another ten yards but FB Moran Norris misses a block and Frank is dragged down after five yards bringing up 2nd and 5. From the offset I formation Vernon Davis motions to the right side and it's another handoff to Frank Gore... nope, it's a play action pass as Smith avoids a sack and delivers a high ball to WR Michael Crabtree who goes up and snags it between two defenders and gets a couple YAC. After the 30-yard gain the 49ers set up 1st and 10at the Packers 33 yard line.

The next play is a run to the left side but Gore is hit in the backfield for a one yard loss. On 2nd and 11 Vernon Davis motions out wide and Smith takes the snap. After about six seconds the coverage refuses to break down and Smith takes off running before getting hit and fumbling the ball! It's a pile and it takes a good ten seconds for everyone to get up to reveal Frank Gore at the bottom with the ball. The 49ers maintain possession which takes us to 3rd and 11. From the shotgun Smith takes the snap, stands in the midst of pressure and delivers a promising strike to WR Isaac Bruce .The ball is thrown perfectly and goes right into Bruce's hands... and right out of them. Incomplete pass, which brings on the 49ers field goal unit on the Packers 34 yard line. Kicking with the wind, Joe Nedney belts the 51-yard field goal and the Niners are up 3-0.

Packers First Drive Joe Nedney kicks off and the ball is taken in the end zone by Packers WR Jordy Nelson who gets it to the 28-yard line before being brought down by Marcus Hudson. Aaron Rodgers takes the Packers first snap and stands in the pocket, the 49ers get instant pressure but Rodgers still manages to find WR Greg Jennings who turns a 13-yard reception into a 19-yard gain bringing up a Packers 1st down. From 1st and 10 HB Ryan Grant takes the handoff to the right side and gets hammered in the backfield by LB Patrick Willis for a two yard loss. From second down, Rodgers hits WR Donald Driver on a quick inside slant for 15 yards and a Packers first down.

Once again on first down the Packers handoff to Ryan Grant who is hit first by Patrick Willis on the right side before being put on his back by LB Manny Lawson for a 3-yard loss bringing up 2nd and 13. At this point the 49ers secondary needs to make some adjustments. This play is another run, a HB draw which at first looks to be succesful before Justin Smith snags ahold of Grant and Takeo Spikes lays him out with a big hit after being wrapped up. With the 2-yard gain the Packers get to 3rd and 11.

Rodgers takes the 3rd down snap and hits TE Jermichael Finley on the inside slant. It is an 8-yard gain as he is tackled immediately bringing on the Packers field goal unit. They nail it, 51 yards the same as the 49ers and the game is tied at 3-3.

Next Possession The Packers kick off and once again HB Michael Robinson kneels for a touchback. From the offset I formation Vernon Davis motions to the right side and the Packers adjust their coverage, from the get-go it's clear the 49ers are running it and the Pack' throws extra men to Vernon's side knowing his blocking skills, but the 49ers run a misdirection and Frank Gore takes off to the left side, breaking tackles from both Collins and Harris he runs down the sideline 30-yards before being brought down from a good angle at the 50-yard line setting up a 49ers 1st down.

On the next play the 49ers go singleback with four wide receivers out on the field. Crabtree and Hill on the right side with Bruce and Morgan on the left, Alex Smith takes the snap. It's a pitch to Gore on the right side! Hill and Crabtree have already taken a few defenders with them to the left side of the field and Gore runs east and west for a few seconds to give... what?! RG Chilo Rachal time to run out and make a crushing block in space on a Packers defender at which point 21 turns upfield and looks to be gone before Atari Bigby makes an ankle tackle after 11-yards. The 49ers set up at the Packers 39-yard line.

Off of first down Alex Smith hits TE Vernon Davis in stride over the middle who takes off upfield on the left side being chased by two defenders. Once again the angle prevails and the Packers force him out of bounds. Davis took a 5-yard reception and turned it into a 24-yard gain. 1st and 10 at the Packers 14-yard line. The 49ers handoff to Gore on first down who pushes a pile of tacklers four yards bringing up 2nd and 6. The next play is a two yard run by HB Glen Coffee to the right side for some reason. 3rd and 4 to go now. From a two tight end set HB Michael Robinson is out on the field. Alex Smith takes the snap and has plenty of time. Vernon Davis is causing havoc in the end zone and Delanie Walker is blocking fiercly. WR Michael Crabtree is open for a split second and that causes the Packers SS to panic and strafe in that direction leaving... HB Michael Robinson open near the first down marker, whom Alex Smith promptly hits and leads out of bounds at the 4-yard line for a 1st and goal!

QB Alex Smith takes the snap and Frank Gore stays in and picks up a defensive end blitz. Smith has just enough time to find TE Vernon Davis between three defenders in the end zone for a 4-yard touchdown pass. The extra point is good and the 49ers lead the Packers 10-3.

Next (Packers) Possession The ball is downed in the end zone after the kickoff and the Packers set up at their own 20-yard line. Rodgers takes the snap from the shotgun and once again makes use of the inside slant, this time hitting WR James Jones for 13-yards before getting a yard and tackled by CB Tarell Brown. 1st and 10 and Rodgers hands off the Ryan Grant from the I formation, who picks up three yards before being tackled by LB Takeo Spikes. The next play is a run to the left after motion goes that way, and Grant picks up one yard before being smothered by Justin Smith.

The next two plays are passes to WR Jones who gets the first down on the first pass on the right sideline with nobody around, and the second is a two yard gain before getting hit very hard by CB Shawntae Spencer. The Packers set up with 2nd and 8. With six seconds left in the quarter Rodgers takes the snap before his line completely crumbles and LE Isaac Sopoaga breaks through and gets the first sack of the game. Rodgers fumbles the ball, but it is picked up by the lineman Tauscher. At the end of the first quarter the 49ers lead 10-3.

2nd Quarter

Starting the quarter at 3rd and 9 Rodgers takes the snap out of the shotgun. As soon as the play starts I know they're going to pick up the first even before he throws the ball to Nelson for an 11-yard pickup over the middle. Ryan Grant gets his biggest run of the day on first down as he turns his total rushing yards of the game into seven with a 6-yard pickup to the left side. Grant then takes the ball up to the right inside of the line and looks to be just short of the first down. The chain gang comes out to measure and the Packers are about two feet away from the first down, bringing up 3rd and 1. Off of the play action, Rodgers makes short work of the 49ers secondary by, what do you know, a 13-yard gain on an inside slant to Donald Driver bringing up a 1st and 10. Make that 1st and goal after a ten yard reception by James Jones and the Packers are threatening to score.

Demetric Evans makes the stop on the first down run to Ryan Grant which goes nowhere. Off of the play action the Packers hit FB Kuhn on the flat who is immediately hit by CB Tarell Brown... who apparently forgets how to tackle and lets the FB score on a 4-yard touchdown. The Packers get the extra point and the game is tied again at 10-10.

Next Possession Michael Robinson takes this kick from the back of the end zone and gets to the 21-yard line before going down after not trying too hard to avoid a tackle. Alex Smith leads the offense out there once again and hands the ball off to Frank Gore who gets two yards on the right side on the run blitz. From the shotgun Smith hits Isaac Bruce for a couple of yards but the play is called back after Frank Gore is called for holding. The Niners now face 2nd and 18. Smith takes the snap and drops back, the protection is good but starts to break down, Smith steps up in the pocket and the line adjusts and keeps him protected. Smith has a man downfied and throws a bomb before getting hit hard. The ball travels about 50 yards through the air and is brought in by WR Isaac Bruce! Bruce didn't have his defender beat, he just had better hands. The Niners set up with 1st and 10 from the Packers 33 yard line.

The next play Alex Smith takes the snap and stares down a receiver. He looks good, and then remembers that he's Alex Smith and decided to pretty much throw a shovel pass right into the hands of Packers defensive lineman Johnny Jolly who gets the interception and goes down instantly. Amazing.

After The Turnover... From their own 36 yard line the Packers set up shop. Rodger takes the snap and throws a short pass to Lee for a 3-yard gain. The next pass is to James Jones for a five yard gain before being brought down by CB Shawntae Spencer. On the next play Ryan Grant picks up the first down on a four yard run. Rodgers calls an audible on the next play and yet another tackle is missed after FB Kuhn once again catches the ball. Dashon Goldson wraps up air and Manny Lawson is forced to drag him down from behind after the FB picks up 20 yards.

On the first down pass Driver gets 10 yards and another first down. After a short pass the Packers get 2nd down. On the next play Aaron Rodgers throws a pass right to S Dashon Goldson in the end zone who drops the pick! 3rd down with 8 to go. Lee once again gets a reception off the slant and the chain gang has to come and measure but the Packers get the 1st. Another 10-yard gain and the Packers get ANOTHER first down off the slant. 1st and goal.

Kentwan Balmer stuffs Ryan Grant for no gain on 1st down. On second down Rodgers throws to Driver in the end zone but he can't stay in bounds. On third and two it's FB Kuhn once again off the play fake in the flat... for a touchdown. Packers lead 17-10 with 2:25 to go in the half.

Next Possession The kick goes through the end zone and the 49ers set up at their own 20 yard line. Off the play action to Gore, Smith passes to the very same, Gore for 9-yards over the middle. After the two minute warning it's Isaac Bruce over the middle for a gain. Alex Smith from 1st down tucks it,, runs, and slides down... for a loss of one. 2nd and 11 with 1:40 to go. The next pass is incomplete and doesn't even go near a wide receiver. Alex was virtually unpressured on the play. 3rd down and 11 to go. On the next play it's WR Michael Crabtree between two receivers who gets the first down and more, taking it to the Packers 46-yard line before being tackled. The 1st down pass is complete, but for no gain as Frank Gore goes out of bounds. 1:11 to go in the game on 2nd down and it's... a false start on TE Vernon Davis. 2nd and 15 not from their own 49-yard line. On a big five step drop Alex Smith steps up into the pocket and delivers a huge strike through the air over the middle. He's got WR Jason Hill deep who is being covered by a linebacker, Clay Matthews. Jason Hill catches the pass in stride and runs in for the 51-yard touchdown. The extra point ties the game at 17-17.

Next Possession Joe Nedney kicks off and Jackson runs it out of the end zone and is tackled at the 21-yard line. With 58 seconds left and all three timeouts the Packers offense comes out to the field. Looking for some YAC, the Packers throw a short pass to Lee but he is brought down immediately by Patrick Willis. They let the clock roll down as they are going to receive at the half, but have to get another play in without a kneeldown. From the shotgun, Rodgers takes the snap with 12 seconds left and hits WR Greg Jennings for ten yards.. and then the Packers take a timeout? McCarthy doesn't seem to understand the concept of running out the clock but whatever, with five seconds to go Rodgers takes the snap and throws another pass to Lee, which is picked off by Patrick Willis who is brought down immediately to end the half.

HALFTIME Aaron Rodgers is playing great football, he didn't miss a pass in the first quarter and only threw three incompletions in the entire first half. Alex Smith posted a better QB rating though with more yards on less completions. They both has a 2:1 TD to INT ratio with Rodgers last second pick. The Packers, as I figured, have yet to get a running game going. Missed tackles are a huge problem for the 49ers so far with a FB shredding them like it's no problem and getting 2 TD to boot. The Packers are 6-7 on 3rd downs, almost all of them being converted on the inside slant. The 49ers will kick off to start the half.

2nd Half

3rd Quarter With another touchback the Packers again set up at the 20-yard line. Ryan Grant takes a handoff to the left side with a four yard run, followed by another of the same gain. On the inside slant... you guessed it, Lee picks up the first down, followed by ANOTHER first down to Donald Driver off of... an inside slant. Christ almighty the 49ers can't do anything against that pass. 1st and 10 at the 49ers 48 yard line. Or can they? Rodgers steps back and almost lazily throws a strike to James Jones over the middle. Patrick Willis looked to be dropping to the right side but had his eyes on Rodgers the whole time and steps up nicely in front of Jones for his second interception of the game. Rodgers saw Spikes initially on Jones and thought he'd be fine.

After The Turnover... The Niners are at their own 47-yard line. On the right side Frank Gore picks up six yards on the outside. The 49ers give up their first sack of the game on second down to Aaron Kampman. On 3rd and 10 Smith drops back, has plenty of time but the coverage refuses to break down. He is brought down from behind on what is technically a 1-yard gain and the 49ers set up to punt.

After The Punt It goes through the endzone for a touchback and the Packers handoff to Ryan Grant, who gets hit for a one yard loss by Justin Smith. The next play is a screen to Grant but he is blown up by S Dashon Goldson for a three yard loss. From their own 16-yard line the Packers go from 3rd and 14. From the shotgun, Rodgers forces a throw to WR Donald Driver but CB Shawntae Spencer jumps the route and snatches the high pass out of the air for the 49ers third interception of the game.

After The Turnover... With excellent field position Alex Smith fakes to Frank Gore to the left side before turning and hitting WR Michael Crabtree on the inside slant, who proceeds to break a tackle and get a few extra yards before being brought down at 1st and goal after gaining 23 yards. From 1st and goal the Packers stack the line and Smith is hit as he throws and it falls incomplete. 2nd and goal from the 4 yard line and it's another fake to Gore. Smith stands with pressure in his face and throws high to TE Vernon Davis who snags it in his huge hands for his second touchdown of the game. The extra point is good and the 49ers lead 24-17.

Next Possession Nelson returns the kick to the 22-yard line. Ryan Grant gets four yards on the left side run and then loses a yard on an even wider left side run bringing up 3rd and 7. On the third down pass Jennings catches an inside slant but is cracked hard by Patrick Willis and drops it, making it incomplete. The Packers line up to punt. Brandon Jones gets about eight yards on the return.

After The Punt From the 41 yard line Smith drops back to pass and throws a pass right to a Packers defender, but he drops it and it falls incomplete. On the run to the right side Frank Gore is hit in the backfield and breaks two tackles. What should have been a five yard loss ends up being a 2-yard loss, but a loss nonetheless. Gore make up for it after catching a pass over the middle and converting the 3rd down. On third, Alex Smith rolls out and panics--he clearly has at least one receiver open but he caves and tucks the ball for a 9 yard sack from two Packers defenders. The 49ers exchange punts.

After Yet Another Punt The punt again goes through the end zone and Aaron Rodgers handsoff at the 20 yard line, but holding is called and the Packers line up at the 11. Greg Jennings catches on two 49ers defenders and picks up the 1st down and nothing more. Grant breaks a few tackles on the next handoff and gets six yards. Michael Lewis almost picks off a pass and the Packers get 3rd and 4. Rodgers is pressured badly on the next play and throws a deep incompletion. The Packers again punt.The 49ers line up to block it and almost get there. Jones muffs the punt but picks it up and gets to the 27-yard line,

Punts Punts Punts The first play is a 5-yard completion to Isaac Bruce and closes out the third quarter.

4th Quarter Alex Smith is sacked on the first play of the quarter by Williams, bringing up a 3rd and 11. It's a handoff to Gore for some reason and it looses one yard. The 49ers punt. Nelson gets it to the 30-yarrd line.

OMG STOP PUNTING IT I'M BORED Ok, not really, I hope the Packers have to punt here but after the first play, an inside slant for nine and a half yards I'm getting worried. Grant gets the carry up the right side and the chain gang confirms the first down. I think it was a generous spot. Grant then gets his biggest carry of the game, nine yards on the right side. 2nd and 1. Rodgers then hits Jones over the middle bringing up another first down.

Spencer almost picks off this next ball, but it's incomplete. Rodgers is hit hard by Manny Lawson but his pass is caught on the ground by Donald Driver... for a four yard loss. Manny Lawson comes back on the next play on third down and gets his first sack of the game for a loss of six. Packers punt, the wind catches it and it goes out at the 28-yard line.

Scared Me A Bit There, Next Possession Alex Smith has great protection but the receivers can't get any seperation, he tucks it, runs and slides for five yards. The next pass is incomplete, and the third is... picked off by defensive lineman Johnny Jolly, who goes a couple yards before fumbling it but the Packers fall on it.

After The Turnover... The Packers have good field position and off a fake to Grant complete a pass to James Jones to bring up first and goal which is followed by a touchdown pass to WR Nelson. The extra point is good and the Packers tie it again 24-24.

Next Possession Robinson takes the ball out of the endzone to the 24-yard line. The 49ers offense goes out on the field with 6:42 left in the game. The fist pass is a 19-yard completion to Vernon Davis over the middle, followed by Josh Morgans first catch of the game for 11 yards. On the next first down Alex Smith throws a high pass to WR Michael Crabtree for another first down. The Niners are putting together an impressive drive.

Frank Gore breaks by my count four tackles before being brought down after a two yard run to the left side on first down. TE Delanie Walker gets his first reception, for 9 yards and a first down. From 1st and 10 Alex Smith takes the snap and throws a perfect pass right into the hands of WR Michael Crabtree who picks up his first touchdown on the season. It is a 21-yard TD. The extra point is good and the 49ers lead again 31-24.

Next Possession Jackson gets the ball to the 29-yard line on the kickoff. The Packers go out with 3:52. They pick up nine yards on the first down pass but Rodgers goes down to a sack on the second down pass play by Aubrayo Franklin. 3rd and 9 with 2:50 left in the game. Rodgers is under pressure and gets hit before checking down to Donald Driver who loses five yards on the pass. At 4th and 13 the Packers have no choice but to punt, trusting in their defense. Jones breaks a tackle and gets the ball to the 46-yard line.

After The Punt Frank Gore picks up seven yards on the first down run to bring up the 2-minute warning. FB Moran Norris gets the call on the next play and gets two yards. On third down Frank Gore goes up the middle and picks up the first down just barely. The Packers spend a timeout. Gore picks up three yards and the Packers spend another timeout. Gore breaks a tackle on his way to another first down and the Packers are defeated. WIth 1:30 left the 49ers take a knee and then lineup for another. At 45 seconds it's a run from frank gore and then a kneeldown on third down. The 49ers win 31-24.

Final Score - San Francisco 49ers 31, Green Bay Packers 24

49ers		Packers
403	Total Offense	299
102	Rushing	45
301	Passing	254
2 (+1)	Turnovers	3 (-1)
4-10 (40%)	3rd Down Conv.	7-13 (53%)
2-15	Penalties	1-10
18:58	Posession Time	13:02

QB Alex Smith 19/26 323 YDS 73%, 4TD, 2 INT, 122.3

QB Aaron Rodgers 30/39 269 YDS 76%, 3TD, 3 INT, 88.5

HB Frank Gore 18 carries, 99 YDS, 5.5 AVG

HB Ryan Grant 19 carries, 45 YDS, 2.4 AVG

WR Michael Crabtree 5 REC, 106 YDS, 21.2 AVG, 1 TD

TE Vernon Davis 4 REC, 50 RDS, 12.5 AVG, 2 TD

WR James Jones 7 REC, 79 YDS, 11.2 AVG

LB Patrick Willis 7 TKL, 1 TFL, 2 INT

DT Aubrayo Franklin 1 SACK, 1 TFL, 3 TKL

LB Aaron Kampman 3 TKL, 1.5 SACK

Player Of The Game Near the end of the game Madden picked LB Patrick Willis as the player of the game. Willis was consistently pressuring when not in coverage and had two picks and one tackle for loss as well as having 7 solo tackles and being in on another. Willis also forced two incompletions out of the hands of WR Donald Driver.

Post Game This game was a slugfest, it was high scoring but still managed to be a strong defensive matchup. The 49ers played like the 49ers and the Packers played like the Packers, which is always a good thing. Not saying this is how it will go exactly on Sunday but some players who I figured would play well played well. The 49ers played strong run defense but gave up a whole lot of first downs. Rodgers stood in the pocket, only rolling out once or twice and the 49ers defensive line played a great game. Crabtree had a breakout game and Vernon Davis showed why he is a huge endzone threat, both literally and figuratively. I said it'd be high scoring before, and it was to a decent degree. I hope you've enjoyed this sim and as always, GO 49ERS!

Friday Injury Report: 49ers at Packers

Brandon — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 06:26:28 -0000

It's a long list for each team this week. The Green Bay Packers have 17 players listed, and the 49ers 13. But most of the injuries are not serious, and nearly everyone is expected to play.

For the Packers, it's been a rough week of practice. Both RT Allen Barbre and OL Evan Dietrich-Smith were injured during practice, and I'm not expecting either of them to play. C Scott Wells reported a concussion on Wednesday, though the injury likely happened during the game last Sunday. Mike McCarthy expects Wells will start. RB Ahman Green injured his groin late Thursday during practice, and it's not clear whether he'll play. Every other player should be available to play, including three guys who didn't play last week: LB Brandon Chillar, TE Jermichael Finley, and RT Mark Tauscher.

Tauscher will start the game, but he will rotate with OL T.J. Lang, depending on Tauscher's endurance.

For the Niners, only CB Nate Clements and LT Joe Staley are out. Those are two of their big name players, but they missed last week's game too. Fooch said their replacements have played really well. The only other player who could miss the game is LB Takeo Spikes who's day-to-day with a hamstring injury.

Overall, both teams are relatively healthy and injuries shouldn't play a major role. The complete injury list for both teams is after the jump.

Player	Pos.	Injury	Friday Participation	Friday Status
Allen Barbre	T/G	Ankle	Did Not Participate	Doubtful
Desmond Bishop	LB	Ankle	Full Participation	Probable
Brandon Chillar	LB	Hand	Full Participation	Probable
Chad Clifton	T	Not Inj. Related	Limited Participation	N/A
Evan Dietrich-Smith	G/C	Ankle	Did Not Participate	Questionable
Jermichael Finley	TE	Knee	Full Participation	Probable
Ahman Green	RB	Groin	Did Not Participate	Questionable
Cullen Jenkins	DE	Ankle	Full Participation	Probable
Johnny Jolly	DE	Back	Full Participation	Probable
Brad Jones	LB	Concussion	Full Participation	Probable
Aaron Kampman	LB	Concussion	Full Participation	Probable
John Kuhn	FB	Hand	Full Participation	Probable
Clay Matthews	LB	Jaw	Full Participation	Probable
Brady Poppinga	LB	Quadricep	Full Participation	Probable
Mark Tauscher	T	Knee	Full Participation	Probable
Scott Wells	C	Concussion	Full Participation	Probable
Charles Woodson	CB	Hip	Full Participation	Probable


Player	Pos.	Injury	Friday Participation	Friday Status
Isaac Bruce	WR	Ankle & Elbow	Full Participation	Probable
Nate Clements	CB	Shoulder	Out	Out
Glen Coffee	RB	Concussion	Full Participation	Probable
Michael Crabtree	WR	Knee	Full Participation	Probable
Demetric Evans	DT	Shoulder	Full Participation	Probable
Aubrayo Franklin	NT	Not Inj. Related
Michael Lewis	S	Quadricep	Full Participation	Probable
Michael Robinson	RB	Not Inj. Related	Did Not Participate	Probable
Mark Roman	S	Knee	Full Participation	Probable
Justin Smith	DT	Back	Full Participation	Probable
Adam Snyder	T/G	Shoulder	Full Participation	Probable
Takeo Spikes	LB	Hamstring	Limited Participation	Questionable
Joe Staley	T	Knee	Out	Out

49ers-Packers Final Injury Report

Fooch — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 22:08:35 -0000

We're two days away from a monstrous game for the 49ers and we've got our final injury report of the week. A whole lot of probable players, but not much beyond that. Barrows thinks we'll see Matt Wilhelm starting at the Ted linebacker spot over Takeo Spikes, who remains "day-to-day." Wilhelm was solid last Thursday as a mid-game replacement for Spikes, so let's hope it carries over to Sunday.

49ers
Out
CB Nate Clements (shoulder)
OT Joe Staley (knee)

Questionable
LB Takeo Spikes (shoulder)

Probable
WR Isaac Bruce (ankle)
RB Glen Coffee (concussion)
S Michael Lewis (quadricep)
RB Michael Robinson (stinger)
WR Michael Crabtree (knee)
DT Demetric Evans (shoulder)
S Mark Roman (knee)
DE Justin Smith (back)
OT Adam Snyder (shoulder)

Packers
Doubtful
OT Allen Barbre (ankle)

Questionable
G Evan Dietrich-Smith (ankle)
RB Ahman Green (groin)

Probable
LB Desmond Bishop (ankle)
LB Brandon Chillar (hand)
TE Jermichael Finley (knee)
DE Cullen Jenkins (ankle)
DE Johnny Jolly (back)
LB Brad Jones (concussion)
LB Aaron Kampman (concussion)
RB John Kuhn (hand)
LB Clay Matthews (jaw)
LB Brady Poppinga (quadricep)
T Mark Tauscher (knee)
C Scott Wells (concussion)
CB Charles Woodson (hip)

Oakland will start Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback against the Bengals. Yes, that same Bruce Gradkowski in 2006

Kirkendall — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:55:47 -0000

More photos » by John Froschauer - AP

3 months ago: Seattle Seahawks linebacker Aaron Curry hits Oakland Raiders quarterback Bruce Gradkowski (5) during the second quarter Thursday, Sept. 3, 2009, in an NFL preseason football game in Seattle. The Seahawks won 31-24. (AP Photo/John Froschauer)

Browse more photos »

The date was October 15, 2006. The weather was a warm 77 degrees at kickoff, with light winds. The game featured the 3-1 Cincinnati Bengals and the 0-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers quarterback, Bruce Gradkowski, was making his second NFL start. With Cincinnati leading 13-7 and 4:21 left in the game, the Gradkowski led Buccaneers offense takes the field. After converting a first down, Tampa Bay lined up at the Bengals 32-yard line. What happened next is bound to be etched in the memory of many Bengals fans. Since I got the way-back machine out yesterday for our Chris Henry piece, I figure, why not reference an old entry during Cincy Jungle's first year in existence.

But the bigger controversy was Justin Smith's roughing the passer. Smith wrapped up Bruce Gradkowski, who lowered his head, hitting the ground with the top of his helmet. Gradkowski lost the ball and I put my arms up thinking this game was over. But since Smith tried to tackle the quarterback - which is illegal - the Bengals were penalized 15 yards; Tampa Bay scored the winning touchdown a few plays later.

I understand the idea of protecting helpless children, women and quarterbacks. Let's be honest though, hard knocks are what injures quarterbacks; not being rolled onto your head or the extension of arms. A cornerback, safety or linebacker, with a full head of steam, will devastate a Quarterback's body (Google the Ohio State Buckeyes and Drew Stanton... or Chris Simms). It took until this off-season to make a rule that defensive players couldn't shred the knee of a quarterback. Smith's sack was minimal in scope to the health of the quarterback but monumental in scope to the game.

The penalty not only pushed the Buccaneers to the Cincinnati 25-yard line, but Cincinnati lost a fumble recovery which would have likely sealed the game. The Bengals couldn't stop the offense after that, even though Tampa Bay was forced to make a third-and-13 conversion -- which they did on fourth down when Gradkowski completed an eight-yard touchdown pass to Mark Clayton. Game over.

Peter King wrote at the time, "... HORRENDOUS roughing-the-passer call in Tampa, giving the Bucs good field position as they drive, with a Toledo Rocket at quarterback, Bruce Gradkowski, to try to beat the hanging-on-for-dear-life Bengals at the Pirate Ship." And Justin Smith said at the time, "That was the ballgame," Smith said. "There was no whistle call, nothing like that to stop the play. I didn't slam him (or) pick him up. He doubled over, went down and fumbled the ball."

Why bring all of this up, you ask? For one, I can. For two, the Bengals will be seeing Gradkowski again this weekend in Oakland.

The Oakland Raiders benched former No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell on Wednesday, handing the starting job to journeyman Bruce Gradkowski for the foreseeable future.

Coach Tom Cable made the announcement of the change following practice as the Raiders (2-7) prepare to play the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Cable said this was not a temporary move, that his plan is to stick with Gradkowski.

"I don't want to be like that," he said. "This is where we're headed and what we're going to do. He'll take this team and go with it."

If the Bengals bring their best game to Oakland, I don't see this as remotely being a problem. Cincinnati, I believe, is fielding the best overall team this year compared to the entire Marvin Lewis era. And the players are well aware of the implications of playing a 2-7 team. However, sometimes the football gods mix it up a little. And they did that weekend in 2006. When the 3-1 Cincinnati Bengals lost to the 0-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

49ers 10 - Bears 6: 49ers day-after press conference

Fooch — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 23:00:40 -0000

Mike Singletary usually has an 11:45am press conference the day after the 49ers play. Today it was bumped up to 10:45 and I didn't get a discussion post up. I just received the transcript for the press conference and have posted it after the jump. If you'd like to read it while watching the actual press conference, you can watch the archived footage at 49ers.com.

There is a whole assortment of quotable info, but there is always some particular useful thoughts. In terms of injuries, nobody has been knocked out for next week's game. Michael Lewis had a stinger, Arnaz Battle a quad injury, Mark Roman a knee contusion, Adam Snyder an AC Sprain, and Takeo Spikes a hamstring sprain. The 49ers were brutalized with bumps and bruises in the Titans game, but they came away relatively healthy (all things considered) after this game. Having a few extra days of rest will definitely help.

As for yesterday's inactives, it sounds like Isaac Bruce will be back and active next week at Green Bay. Morgan has supplanted him in the starting lineup, but no word yet on how this affects Jason Hill's playing time. As for Glen Coffee, there's no word yet on whether he'll be able to play next week. I'd say err on the side of caution with concussions, particularly as this one seems a little more rough than the Michael Lewis variety.

We'll have a separate post at some point about him, but I'd like to point out Coach Singletary's comments about the defensive line in general, and Aubrayo Franklin in particular:

[NT] Aubrayo Franklin, I thought, had another great game. He's been, probably, the most consistent player that we've had this year thus far. Aubrayo has that low center of gravity. He is always working at just trying to get his body in the right position to make plays. The best thing about him is he's very unselfish, as with [DT Isaac] Sopoaga and [DT] Justin Smith as well. That's really how you're effective against the run. You have unselfish players who are willing to do their job, get in the gap and hold those guys so the linebackers can get where they need to go, and then the linebackers have to be very disciplined going downhill to make sure that they're fitting in those areas as well.

All things considered, are most folks happy, or at least satisfied with the play of the defensive line? The pass rush that they provide (on top of what the OLBs are supposed to be doing) can be a bit inconsistent, but I have to say that what has made Aubrayo Franklin such a force in the middle now is that he's showing more consistency. Last season he finally started putting things together, and this year he's carried it over on a week to week basis. I realize sometimes he's utilized in a limited role, but I think he's really stepped up for this defense. There are still issues on the defense, but for any improvements they've made, Aubrayo Franklin definitely deserves some credit.

Head Coach Mike Singletary
Press Conference - November 13, 2009
San Francisco 49ers

Opening statements:

"Good morning. I'll talk about the injuries first. [SS] Michael Lewis just has a stinger. [WR] Arnaz Battle, quad. [S Mark] Roman, knee contusion. [RT Adam] Snyder, AC sprain. [LB Takeo] Spikes, hamstring strain, and that's day-to-day. None are so serious that they won't play next week. Spikes, we just have to really watch from day-to-day and see how that goes. [WR] Isaac Bruce, his ankle, I'm sure, will be fine. I think when he is healthy, [WR] Josh Morgan will be the starter.

It was a good game to win last night for many different reasons. The biggest reason is you have a four-game losing streak, and it's just great that it came last night. So, I'm very thankful for that. I think, as I look at the special teams, the biggest thing is we've got to make those kicks. [K Joe] Nedney has to make that kick, and he knows that, and we're trying to get late in the game that pooch kick from our punter. We've got to get that one. Those are things that we have to do going forward. Normally, they're good about those things. I don't know what it was. I know Nedney hooked that kick, don't know why. The only thing I saw, the snap was kind of a poor snap. It was on the ground. He had to pick it up and set it up, and I don't know if that had anything to do with it. We'll find out later today when I talk with them. I thought overall, our special teams, our coverage team did a good job getting down field and getting good field position. I thought we did a pretty decent job overall.

Defensively, I thought out defense, it did what we focused on. They did what we talked about all week, and that was creating turnovers. And, we have to continue to do that, getting our offense the ball. We've got to continue to work on our tackling. A lot more of that was on the perimeter where our DBs were tackling. We just have to do a better job at tackling. We'll continue to work on that.

[NT] Aubrayo Franklin, I thought, had another great game. He's been, probably, the most consistent player that we've had this year thus far. Aubrayo has that low center of gravity. He is always working at just trying to get his body in the right position to make plays. The best thing about him is he's very unselfish, as with [DT Isaac] Sopoaga and [DT] Justin Smith as well. That's really how you're effective against the run. You have unselfish players who are willing to do their job, get in the gap and hold those guys so the linebackers can get where they need to go, and then the linebackers have to be very disciplined going downhill to make sure that they're fitting in those areas as well.

[LB] Matt Wilhelm stepped in and did a nice job for Takeo, and the reason we wanted to go with Matt - not that [LB] Scott [McKillop] is a bad player or anything - Matt has experience. And, that helps tremendously. I think Scott was doing a great job on special teams, and really contributing there. Matt Wilhelm just stepped in and has a really good understanding of this defense. Some of the same things that we do here are some of the concepts anyways that he was familiar with in San Diego. It just made it very natural for him to step in and understand what we're trying to do right away and get it done.

I think our rush was effective. Even though we didn't record a sack, I think that had a lot to do with [QB Jay] Cutler being off balance and not quite seeing what he was hoping to see or trying to see. That, sometimes, can be just as effective depending on the quarterback. So, defensively, overall we did a good job. We've got to continue to do a better job on tight ends. I think the tight end had a few plays. He's a good tight end. He's got great speed and creates matchups; bad matchups for us. For the most part, I think our guys just have to be more consistent in terms of when we have a tight end that's a special guy with good speed, you have to figure out a way to handle that. I think [TE] Vernon [Davis] creates a lot of the same mismatches for defenses when he's going, when he's playing.

The offense, I thought [QB] Alex [Smith] did a good job. I thought our offense did what they needed to do in order for us to win the game. Yes, we would have like to have gotten more points, and I think that will come. The fourth-down play, the fourth-and-one, we were in the red zone. I felt, let's go for it. It was fourth and less than a one, less than one yard to go. If I had to do it over again, I wouldn't. Maybe it was too early in the game, or maybe I was too greedy early on. But, the thing that I want my offensive line to know, and I talked to them after that play, is I want them to know that I believe in them and I believe that any time that we go for a fourth down, the only reason that I'm going for that is because I believe they can get it. That was my thought process, and letting them know that.

I thought we did a good job running the ball. We felt that we could be effective running the ball, and it showed later on. And, because I felt our defense would do a good job against their offense, it's the reason that later on in the game we decided to run the ball more and not take a risk in throwing the ball and run some time off the clock and put the game away. And, that's pretty much it."

On whether he would thinks not scoring more points off of turnovers is troubling:

"I wouldn't say troubling. It's something we have to get better at. Whether you can complete the first down that we had the opportunity to get and continue to go, even though that wasn't on a turnover, I just think we have to do a better job overall in our offense. When we get on the field after a turnover, we have to have the thought process of converting. We've got to convert something, field goals, touchdowns - something. We just have to do a better job of that."

On whether QB Alex Smith's interception in the second quarter prompted him to be more cautious in the second half:

"I don't like any time there's a turnover or an interception. If you're going to get one, hopefully it's like a punt. But, on that particular play, I can certainly understand it. I just think Alex threw it more outside, and it should have been more inside, just a little bit inside. But, when the safety was coming over like he was, I just think it was a tough throw to make. You had to be right on the money to make that throw. Maybe his body position wasn't just right to do that."

On the reason for the penalties:

"I don't know. That bothered me a bit, and I will address that today. From a standpoint of, to me, you're going to have some offsides, and, to be honest with you, going into the game, because of some of the things Vernon said during the week, I think he had a penalty or two jumping offsides. Plus, getting ready to go in after pregame, and the guy coming over talking to him, I think he got in his head a little bit early on, and he wanted to make sure that he got the best of the guy. And, so that's the kind of stuff you don't want to get into because it makes it about you. Vernon and I talked about that before and after the game. I just think some of the other things are just inexcusable. The penalty on [CB] Tarell Brown, I talked to him just a bit after that and we're going to talk about that today. To me, they're what you call selfish penalties. That was a selfish penalty, when it becomes more about me and how tough I am and I'm going to show you I'm not going to take that. You put the team at risk. You put the team in a very difficult situation, particularly, that was a key situation. That just can't happen. It won't happen. So, we will deal with that today but we will not have those kinds of penalties in the game. It happened last night, but that's the last time this year that you will see us have those many penalties because that's one of the things we can't do. We're not the kind of team that - we are a disciplined team and we've got to do a much better job of that. And, we will."

On what Smith did well:

"I think he managed the game. I think he did a good job managing the game. I think he did a good job buying time, trying to make and getting outside of the pocket and trying to keep it going. I think there were times when guys were breathing down his neck and he found a way to make a play. I thought he did a good job there."

On the player's weekend schedule:

"We met about that this morning, talked about it. Tomorrow they will have off. Sunday they will have off. Then we'll come back next week and we are starting on Monday and we will work some on Monday. Then we will work the rest of the week and we will get ready to go."

On whether other teams think they can bait Davis before the game to throw him off:

"I just think what Vernon has done up to this point is really fantastic. I think going forward, he just has to remember that the Vernon that got him to this point is the Vernon that just goes out there and gets it done. If anyone comes up and talks to him or whatever, you just keep going. After the game you can stand there and talk, and maybe that's a good time. I think Vernon has grown up, and I don't think he really understands or he really knows how important he is to this team and how the team responds to him. He is just a gut who has a lot of energy, that is really what it boils down to. He has so much energy and is a very emotional guy. You want guys like that because you have to have guys like that to win championships, and he possesses that. The more we talked about it yesterday, he knows as we are going forward that he has to do a better job of being one of the leaders of this team. And he will do a better job."

On why he didn't call a timeout late in the second quarter to get his team into a two-minute situation:

"That's why I didn't do it, because the fact that they did convert it. That would have just given them that much more time to work with and I didn't want to do that. I felt that if we got the ball back, we will take a shot or do whatever. But I just didn't want to take that risk. That's all."

On WR Isaac Bruce's role the rest of the season:

"He is still going to play. He is still going to play. We just think that the time has come with Josh Morgan where we want to see what he can do as the starter and let him take that lead and let's see what he can do with it. Isaac Bruce is still going to mentor. Isaac Bruce is still going to play. He is still going to make plays, but he is just not going to start. His time will be a little bit limited there. That's all."

On having a successful defensive game plan despite the short week:

"First of all, it is huge for [defensive coordinator] Greg Manusky and his staff to just really work their tails off and try and figure out, not just yesterday but week-in and week-out, try to put in a game plan. Some games you have a feel for what the offense is going to do, what the quarterback is trying to do and some tendencies he might have. When that happens, and it happened a few times this year, when that happens, it really makes it nice for our defense because now you go into a game and it takes a lot of the guessing out of it and you can anticipate more. I think as you go into a game defensively and you can begin to anticipate early in a game, and some of those things you are anticipating are being called, that makes you play that much faster. There are other times you go into a game and they kind of change those tendencies. When teams change those tendencies, it makes it more difficult to have a bead on them. I think overall defensively, week-in and week-out, Greg and his staff do a great job of trying to put the guys in position to win."

On S Mark Roman's long interception drought before last night's game:

"I was aware of the drought and very happy to see him get a turnover, get an interception and be able to run with it a little. That was great to see."

On whether having multiple guys step up can become a staple of the defense:

"I would like to think so. Going forward, I think we just have to continue working and we just have to continue to study and the coaches will continue to do a good job getting our guys in a position to win. I think for us as a team, getting into that second half of the season and knowing that sense of urgency that we have and where we are trying to go and the things we are trying to do, it is very important that we continue to play fast, continue to do all the little things that help us win football games. Going forward, hopefully we can do that."

On whether Nedney's early miss played a role in his decision to punt late in the game:

"Yeah, it played a role. But not only that, but it was really windy at that time and I felt if you try to kick a field goal you could get one of those where the ball is held in the air and they have a chance to return it. You don't want to be in that situation. I just felt it was a great opportunity to get a punt and pin them inside the five, or something like that. It just didn't work out."

On whether Bears CB Nathan Vasher's long touchdown return from several years ago was on his mind:

"Yes. Yes. Absolutely."

On whether this game could boost S Michael Lewis for the rest of the year:

"Yeah, Michael Lewis can be a big-play guy. He is a big hitter and I am just glad we have him. He is just a steady guy back there trying to make plays and his leadership - he is the guy who leads by example. So that was really good to see."