SB Nation - Andra Davis

MHR Chalk Talk - Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos '09

Steve Nichols — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 18:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

During practice this week, and under the watchful eye of Coach "Jedi" McDaniels, Broncos QB Kyle Orton practices levitating a football. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

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I have a lot on my mind right now, and I want to touch on each issue that is rumbling around in my head.

1) The loss of Bengals receiver Chris Henry

2) The great effort by Denver in their loss in Indianapolis

3) The beating we are about to administer to the Raiders, and...

4) What is in store for the Broncos, this year and next.

Let's start with the big news of the week, the death of Chris Henry. I don't know the circumstances surrounding the death of Chris. I know there was a domestic dispute, and Chris fell out of the rear of a moving pickup truck. But that's it. I'm not interested in who was at fault, and what led up to this tragedy. Here's what I do know:

Chris was a young father. There are young children whose lives are going to be impacted by this death, and that is more crucial than anything having to do with football. My prayers are with them.

Second (and not even on the scale of importance as the loss of a human life) is the question as to how the Bengals will choose to react to this tragedy. This week the Bengals play the Chargers. As we know, the Broncos would like to see the Chargers lose as many games as possible in the final three weeks. CIN is the biggest threat left for the Chargers (the other two games are at TEN and home against WAS). Will the Bengals take this death too hard to play four quarters of football, or will they play an inspired game?

I was against SD in this game, but now I'm for Cincy. I'm sure much of the football world will be, too. Let's keep Chris's children in our prayers.

Denver is a Very Good Team

What did I want and expect from Denver this year? A record of at least 8 wins, and improved play. Well, I've received what I wanted (and expected).

Our defense is exciting to watch! Brian Dawkins is all over the field making big plays, Elvis Dumervil is looking like the sack leader of 2009, and Andre' Goodman and Renaldo Hill have held their own with Champ Bailey for for playing at an elite level. Robert Ayers and Darcel McBath look like they have secure futures with the team, and Andra Davis has silenced the naysayers that claimed he didn't belong on the same team as D.J. Williams. Denver has one of the best defenses in the League right now, and the hiring of Mike Nolan to run the defense was brilliant.
When Josh McDaniels had to determine the best way to get something in return for Jay Cutler, his options were limited. He took Kyle Orton and a few draft picks. Right now, Orton is playing much better than Cutler (many of us would have said this was even the case before the trade), and that number one pick from Chicago is looking like a real gem right now. Orton isn't flashy, but he isn't giving the ball (and ballgames) away either.
I don't like the fact that we "only" rank 12th in running the ball. Still, Knowshon Moreno is on track to go over 1,000 yards for the season (despite sharing the running load), and Correll Buckhalter averages 5.3 yards a carry. I'll take it.

It sucked losing to Indianapolis, didn't it? Well, not entirely. First of all (as our own John Bena points out), this isn't the same Broncos team of the last few years that would have been blown out. It was a tight game. Denver blew some chances in the red zone (including a missed FG, and an INT in the end zone), but the team also played for 60 minutes and did a lot of things right.

I read Ted Bartlett's excellent ST&NO article on Tuesday, and found myself nodding my head in agreement time and time again with his take on our Indy game. I'd like to copy and paste many of his thoughts here, but I'd have to use most of his article, so you might as well just click the link I provided and read the whole thing again because it is that good. Here are the highlights -

The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 possessions.

And now I'll just paraphrase some more thoughts from the story -

We proved that we can disrupt Manning. Andre' Goodman was brilliant. Darcel McBath may be lost to IR, but he had a heck of a game before going down to injury. In fact, he was awesome. Indy didn't have an answer for Brandon Marshall (more on this in a moment). Jabar Gaffney looked good. Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil looked great (despite a lack of sacks). Doom (despite a recent fanpost calling for a trade due to his lack of ability in run stopping) continues to handle run stopping and pass rushing duties like a pro.

And now about Brandon Marshall. The Broncos may be trying to sound "politicaly correct" when they say that they weren't trying to get the ball to Marshall over and over. Coach McDaniels says that Marshall happened to be open a lot, so that is where the ball went. I appreciate what the coach is saying, but he's reciting "coach speak" because he's too polite to state the cold, hard truth.

The truth is, Marshall was open some of the time, and some of the time he wasn't. But the bottom line is, nobody in the Colts secondary had even the smallest trace of ability to stop The Beast. Simply put, Marshall did a brilliant job of out-muscling, out-jumping, and outdistancing his opponents on nearly every play. The Tampa-2 remains a good defense, but it still takes mediocre cornerbacks and puts them into positions to make plays. When a good QB like Kyle Orton can dink and dunk underneath the coverage, a powerful man like Marshall can make the catches and run over lesser corners. Coach McDaniels has too much class to put it like that, but that's how it was. We kept going to the well because the well wasn't drying up, and the guys guarding the well just weren't that good.

We have beat great teams this year, and lost a close game to a probable Super Bowl contender. I feel great!

The Oakland Raiders

How bad have things gotten in Oakland? This bad (warning - strong language). When the editor of a fan blog goes this far over the top, we know that things have collapsed completely. The unfortunate linked story tells us everything we need to know about the Raiders organization. Most notably, that the fan base is disgusted with their own team.

Where to begin? Denver is saying all the right things in their press conferences (such as "Oakland is a better team than their record, and they're capable of big plays if we aren't careful"), but really, c'mon now.

As a coach, I am going to pump my team up as much as possible. Any team can beat any other team if one of those teams isn't playing at a high level. But here's the problem. This is a new Denver team, a team that plays with the "Brian Dawkins Work Ethic". We don't let up, and we play hard. The shenanigans (or Shanahanigans) of the last three or so years have ended. This team is pumped up and playing hard. I frankly can't see the Denver Broncos taking a team for granted anymore.

Here is what you need to know as we go into this game.

First, Oakland is a terrible team on offense. They are second-to-last in the following vital stats - points, yards, and pass yards. In fact, they only average 11.9 points per game. And while they rank 31st in those areas, they rank only 22nd in running the ball. Denver's defense matches up perfectly - 4th in preventing points, 3rd in preventing yards, 2nd in preventing the pass. Denver is 15th in stopping the run.

Things are so bad, that posters at S&BP are excited about the prospect of seeing their third string QB get the start!

On defense, things aren't much better. The Raiders are 26th in preventing points, 28th in stopping yards, and 30th in stopping the run. At least they are 17th in stopping the pass (which isn't saying much). Meanwhile, the Broncos are a better match on the offensive side of things, though the stats aren't great. Denver is 20th in points, 17th in yards, 18th in passing yards, and 12th in the rush. Still, Denver has a record-setting WR, a careful QB, and excellent RBs.

Do the Raiders have any hope at all? Of course they do. Everything (including home-field advantage) screams for a Broncos blowout over the Raiders, but it isn't a done deal.

First of all, the Raiders have players that anyone should respect. That the team doesn't play together as a team is their downfall. The Raiders have good running backs in depth, and any of them could break a good play with good blocking and poor defense by Denver. But with a 5-2 look and motivated play from Denver, I'm not sure this will be an issue.

The Raiders also have a decent defensive line, but right DE Greg Ellis is probably out for this game. A good match-up may be LDE Richard Seymour against Denver RT Tyler Polumbus.

One of the better players for Oakland is Nnamdi Asomugha, a young and very talented CB. He'll face Brandon Marshall. Even with excellent coverage, Orton has several other places to go with the ball (3 other excellent receivers, and two TEs).

Sadly, the best player on the Oakland team (in my opinion) is kicker Sebastian Janikowski. He has the power and accuracy to make just about any field goal, and the thin air in Denver only gives him better chances to score.

Denver's biggest weakness isn't players or coaches, it is injuries. Denver's primary running back is out for this game. RDE/OLB Elvis Dumervil didn't practice, and neither did SS Renaldo Hill.

So forgive me for the keys to this game sounding a bit, well, tongue in cheek. I'm being serious.

Keys to the Game

Oakland -

Forget about this game. If you want to start winning games, the change needs to come from the top. Al Davis is unable to keep his claws out of the team's football operations. He has brought in a boxer instead of a head coach, a QB who needs Jenny Craig more than Kirstie Alley does, and forces the team to play a vertical offense approach that has been outdated for decades. Throw in the terrible player moves of late (such as the Javon Walker signing), and this team isn't going to win many games. Until Al Davis is removed, the Oakland Raiders are the ~~Detroit Lions~~ Oakland Raiders of the NFL.
Pray that the Broncos take you for granted like Pittsburgh did.
Run the ball, and pray to God that Denver makes mistakes.

Denver -

Take this game seriously. The only way that you lose this game is to play against the Raiders as if the Raiders are as bad as they are. Play your own brand of football, and play hard on every down. Everything else will work out.
Limit mistakes. If you want to hand the game to Oakland, get some penalties and turnovers.
Curb the excessive celebrations. I expect a lot of great plays on offense, defense, and special teams. If you take off your helmet (I won't mention any names) or do a choreographed dance, we can get penalized. (lol)

Where do we go from here?

With a newly built team that doesn't sleep on games, I expect wins against KC and OAK at home. The game that really intrigues me is the one against Philly. I have this game circled on my calendar as an excellent game against a good team. I also see it as a prelude to the playoffs. How we play against the Eagles in an away game will tell me a lot about our postseason chances. More on that game next week.

If the Broncos can win the last three games (I'd put the odds at about 50/50) and SD loses to CIN and drops a game in TEN, I really like where the Broncos could end up. On the other hand, if DEN loses to PHI and the Ravens win out (games against CHI, PIT, and OAK), we could drop from 5th seed to 6th seed. In the end, I think Denver gets the 5th seed, regardless of the PHI game. But winning that game (along with the must-win "easy" games of OAK and KC) may prove to be critical based on what SD and BAL do.

Here's a major thought - there are four teams ahead of Denver in the playoff seedings at this point, and Denver has beaten three of them (SD, CIN, and NE). We are good enough to go far this year. We also lost to two of those teams (SD and IND). I don't think we're likely to win or even make a SB appearance. In fact, it is hard to beat any team twice (the losing team has more film that benefits them), so I think a deep playoff run is difficult.

But I wanted improvement this year, and a playoff appearance is ahead of where I thought we would be. Coach McDaniels gets an A+ for his first year.

Last year, it would have been silly to talk about playoffs this early (remember the three game losing skid?), but a new coach and a new team attitude has me believing that we will make the playoffs this year. I'm not even concerned about how far we get after that. Denver has already exceeded my expectations, and everything now is icing on the cake.

And now, for a parting shot...

I want to thank the Colts fans who visited us last week. They were friendly, smart, and active. I congratulate them on their fine victory, and for having class at our site. Well, almost all of them.

I enjoyed the following comment under my story last week...

Which is the bigger overstatement?

"Broncs have the best secondary ever assembled on one team"

OR

"Colts are facing an incredible pass rush"

Neither the secondary or the pass rush are the best in the league this year, let alone legendary. Let’s watch the game and decide which of these statements is the most absurd.

by Check Your Facts

I didn't see the comment until today. Here was my answer some moments ago...

Check YOUR facts sir.

Is it just me, or is Elvis Dumervil leading the League in sacks right now? Bailey and Dawkins not legendary players with HOF in their futures? Are you kidding me?

Denver wasn’t going to win this game (as I wrote), but your comment is very perplexing. As it turns out, we intercepted Manning three times, and hurried him through out the game.

Check your facts indeed. lol

by Steve Nichols

It is now clear which comment was most absurd. Funny, but it wasn't either of mine.

: )

Poll

Jamarcus Russell, QB of the Oakland Raiders....

Previewing the Enemy: Denver Broncos

Rated-R Superstar — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 14:37:54 -0000

Earlier this season, Denver won a topsy-turvy 23-3 game in Oakland. [via www4.pictures.zimbio.com]

Unfortunately for us loyal fans of the silver and black, the season isn't over quite yet. With Bruce Gradkowski out, our already slim chances just became even slimmer. Coming off of a blowout loss at the hands of the Washington Redskins, we next face our hated rival in the Denver Broncos. Denver's real season hasn't even yet started. Sitting at 8-5 and atop the AFC Wild Card, the Broncos in great position to grab a playoff spot. I'll admit that I did in no way see this coming from this Denver squad. They've definitely proven a lot of people wrong as they continue their final push into the playoffs. A familiar opponent to us, let's see what we're up against this Sunday.

Let's take a look at their schedule and see how they've fared so far.

Week 1: @ Cincinnati Bengals -- W, 12-7
Week 2: Cleveland Browns -- W, 27-6
Week 3: @ Oakland Raiders -- W, 23-3
Week 4: Dallas Cowboys -- W, 17-10
Week 5: New England Patriots -- W, 20-17 (F/OT)
Week 6: @ San Diego Chargers -- W, 34-23
Week 7: Bye Week
Week 8: @ Baltimore Ravens -- L, 7-30
Week 9: Pittsburgh Steelers -- L, 10-28
Week 10: @ Washington Redskins -- L, 17-27
Week 11: San Diego Chargers -- L, 3-32
Week 12: New York Giants -- W, 26-6
Week 13: @ Kansas City Chiefs -- W, 44-13
Week 14: @ Indianapolis Colts -- L, 16-28

Wow, the Broncos have really cooled off after a great 6-0 start. Just 2-5 in their last seven games, the Broncos still have good wins against teams like the Cowboys, Patriots, Chargers and Giants. They're no slouch.

Let's take a look at the Bronco offense first.

Pass Offense Rank: 225.2 yards/game; 19th in NFL
Rush Offense Rank: 123.2 yards/game; 12th in NFL
Total Offense Rank: 336.4 yards/game; 19th in NFL
Scoring Offense Rank: 19.7 points/game; 20th in NFL

I bet this guy feels like an idiot now. [via stfusports.files.wordpress.com]

Head coach Josh McDaniels is pretty close to being an offensive genius. A disciple of Bill Belichick's, the 33-year-old McDaniels really knows how to run a team at least offensively. There was controversey before the season started, especially revolving around star wide receiver Brandon Marshall. Still, he's around and there aren't any qualms circling around him. In the offseason, the team waved goodbye to Jay Cutler. It may have been the best thing they've done after all.

Kyle Orton, QB: No, he doesn't have the big arm that Jay Cutler does. No, it's not a problem at all. Coming over from the Chicago Bears in an offseason trade that sent Cutler packing to Chicago, Orton has flourished in Josh McDaniels' system. Orton is completing a career-high 63 percent of his passes and will break a career-high in touchdowns and yards before the season concludes. He's a smart quarterback. He doesn't make mistakes. He can make the play, too. What more do you want?

Knowshon Moreno, HB: A rookie from Georgia, Knowshon Moreno didn't immediately step into the starting role. Lately, he has been getting the bulk of the carries. Moreno has carried it an average of 18.2 times over the past five weeks for an average of 82.8 yards. He has also scored three times during that span. Moreno has pretty much taken over the feature back role, although he won't catch many passes out of the backfield.

Correll Buckhalter, HB: Buckhalter was brought over in free agency from the Philadelphia Eagles and has done a pretty good job this season despite not getting the bulk of the carries. Overall, Buckhalter has posted a 5.3 yards per carry average and has been very reliable carrying the football. Like Moreno, though, Buckhalter isn't a threat out of the backfield to catch the ball having no more than three grabs in a single game in two months.

Brandon Marshall caught an NFL record 21 passes last week against the Colts. [via a.espncdn.com]

Brandon Marshall, WR: What more can be said about Marshall that hasn't already been said? At one point, we didn't even think he'd be a Denver Bronco. Now, he's tearing up the league. Amongst AFC pass-catchers, Marshall is tied for the conference lead in touchdowns (9), is third in receptions (86) and is seventh in yards (1,008). He is probably headed to a Pro Bowl. In case you missed it, last week against the Colts, Marshall had an NFL record 21 grabs for 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It'll be fun to see him matched up against Nnamdi Asomugha.

Jabar Gaffney, WR: Josh McDaniels brought Gaffney over from New England to play in his system in Denver. Gaffney is averaging about 39 yards per game when he does catch a pass as he was shutout in Week 10 and Week 13 each. Still, Gaffney must be accounted for along with the rest of the weapons that go unmentioned during this preview, such as Brandon Stokley. At any given week, one of those these weapons can step up and hurt you.

Eddie Royal, WR: More dangerous in the return game, Raiders fans know all about this speedy little man from Virginia Tech. Last year on Monday night, Royal had a huge coming out party in the opening game. After a great 2008 campaign, this season has been bit of a disappoint for Royal; however, he still makes an impact. As previously mentioned, Royal is a threat in the return game -- both kicks and punts. Not quite as dangerous as someone like Joshua Cribbs of the Cleveland Browns, just ask the Chargers about Royal's prowess.

Daniel Graham, TE: Yet another former Patriot is calling Denver home. With Tony scheffler's status in doubt this Sunday, Graham becomes even more keyed-in on in the passing game. Graham isn't Orton's favorite target or anything, but last week, Fred Davis hurt us with his two touchdown receptions. With all of the guys Orton has to throw to, limit as many of them as you can. Stopping Graham isn't high on the priorities or anything, but just don't let the people who shouldn't beat you hurt you.

Let's shift gears to the Bronco defense now.

Pass Defense Rank: 183.3 yards/game; 2nd in NFL
Rush Defense Rank: 107.4 yards/game; 14th in NFL
Total Defense Rank: 290.7 yards/game; 3rd in NFL
Scoring Defense Rank: 17.7 points/game; 5th in NFL

Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has completely transformed the defense. [via a.espncdn.com]

Man, where do I begin with this defense? Last year, they were outright terrible. Ex-49er head coach Mike Nolan steps in, implements a 3-4 defense with the right personnel and viola. Some no-name defensive linemen Kenny Peterson, Ryan McBean and Ronald Fields have stepped in and played well. At the linebacking core, D.J. Williams and Andra Davis are very solid in the middle. Elvis Dumervil, playing the outside linebacker spot and even defensive end, he has become a sack machine. He leads the entire NFL in sacks with 15. With all of that said, the rushing defense is still just a tad above average despite improvement -- dramatic improvement. The secondary is where the defense shines with the pass defense. The team gets great rush on the quarterback and the defensive backs are very skilled. Veterans Brian Dawkins at safety and Champ Bailey at cornerback lead the defense.

Conclusion: Well, it's quiet simple: Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden and all the rest of you running backs need to be ready to carry the load. With Bruce Gradkowski out and Zach Miller's status in question, it only makes sense to pound the rock. Denver's rush defense is ranked 14th, significantly worse than their pass defense which is only worse than the Jets'. JaMarcus Russell or Charlie Frye -- we're all collectively praying for McDonald's instead of Fasto Burger which can be seen on That '70s Show -- will have a tough time. The young wide receivers are up against a tough secondary and it's just setting up for disaster, really. Again, we're going to have to establish some sort of ground game. Use 'em often and use 'em all with the exception of Gary Russell as he should be used in the flat. I don't know what else to tell you. We could be in for a long day. This could easily turn into a 41-6 rout.

Feel free to leave your predictions or even your own thoughts and ideas about the Denver Broncos and how we can earn a win our fourth win of the season on Sunday.

*-All stats are through Tuesday, December 15, 2009. (Happy 44th, mom!)

Poll

Do you feel more confident in a win, less confident in a win or about the same in a win after reading this preview?

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:00:20 -0000

Happy Tuesday, friends. It's a short week, with another game on Thursday night, so there's no time to mope or feel sorry for ourselves. In their scheduling wisdom, the NFL took away our right to do so - and I, for one, am glad. The Giants can be beaten, with sound play, but we'll get to that eventually. For now we'll put this week to bed and move on quickly. Ready.... BEGIN!!!!

1. I am approaching one full year as a staff contributor to MHR, having joined at the beginning of December 2008. It's been quite an interesting year, and my relationship to the team has kind of changed in an unexpected way during that time.

I first discovered MHR in April 2008, right before the draft. It, and SBNation, have come a long way since then, but the basics were the same; MHR is a respectful, knowledgeable community which discussed all things about their team. I was inspired to join such a community, and I started posting some FanPosts (which were still called Diaries only a year and a half ago).

Unlike a lot of staff members, I wasn't asked to fill a specific role, so I had to figure out what mine would be. I had always done some around the league stuff, but I wanted to find a delivery formula that would work well on a Broncos site. I debuted ST&NO on January 12, 2009, with the following opening:

As we enter the re-loading season, I felt like I needed to establish a fun new recurring feature. HT has MHR University, and Broncobear has the always excellent Tales from the Sunny Side. Styg is heading up some great draft coverage, which has a fun name, which you'll be hearing about very soon. Nick has some statistical analysis pieces which will be coming, and Zappa will continue to be Zappa, intermittently unleashing jolts of Broncos fan brilliance. And the Guru, when we form like Voltron, the Guru is the head.

So where does that leave me? Well, I was thinking a couple days ago, as I listened to Enter The Wu-Tang and shoveled a foot of snow, that two things I can consistently provide are shallow thoughts, and nearsighted observations. Since this is a Broncos blog, I'll focus on our team, but I'll also include some league-wide thoughts, for keeping-up-with- the-Jones purposes. Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. What else could be needed on top of that? Maybe just some more cowbell.... Did anybody bring a cowbell?

Well, ST&NO has grown, and I have too. As I was sitting on my couch Sunday, watching the debacle against the Chargers, I realized that I wasn't yelling and cursing as much as normal. I didn't get that excited, and I have to say, upon some reflection, that I have been less excitable about the Broncos this season than ever. For the first 6 games, I had a hard time finding new ways to express my pleasure with the situation, and for the last 4, I have had trouble doing the opposite thing.

All I can figure is that my role in writing for this site has subtly and gradually forced me to become more of an objective analyst, and less of a passionate fan. I think the change largely has to do with my relationship with and attitude toward reporters.

I like to beat up on NFL reporters, because I think that most of them only have a surface-level knowledge of what is going on in a football game. The Broncos have a couple of good reporters, in Lindsay Jones and Jeff Legwold, and I never take any shots at them. I actually have tended toward staying away from taking deserved shots at the Denver-area Woody Paige bloviator class, because I don't want to spend the site's goodwill with the Denver media; it's John's to spend, not mine, after all. (Woody going after Kyle at BroncoTalk made me briefly lift my moratorium in the comments section of Horse Tracks the other day.)

Here's a summary of my general attitude toward football reporting. I think there is relatively little value in the reporting of news, at the national level. When Lindsay Jones reports on what happened at the facility every day, there is value in that. When Chris Mortensen hears 10 minutes before Jay Glazer that Chris Simms will start, who cares? Everybody was going to find out soon enough anyway, so what's the difference who had it first?

The real value, to me, is in the analysis, which is why I devote my time and effort to being a good analyst. While I am not a journalist, I do admire the journalistic principle of objectivity, and I think that in reconciling my criticism of national NFL reporters with my long-held policy of non-hypocrisy, I have become more objective. If I am going to beat them up for not knowing the technical aspects of the game as well as me, I can't be less objective than them. Something like that.

I remember last spring sitting in a bar with some co-workers for a happy hour, and seeing Woody's face come on Around The Horn. I told this girl I work with, Trudy, that I competed with him in the marketplace of ideas, and that I kicked his butt, on the merits. Well, I really don't think of Woody as my competition anymore, for a lot of obvious reasons. (Like, for example, he can't compete with me.) Due to the established nature of my content, I feel like I am competing with national guys, like Peter King and Gregg Easterbrook, even if this platform is Broncos-specific.

So, the point of this is that I was struggling with what to say in a general way about Sunday's game, when I don't have the deep feelings that most of you do, and that I would have had a year ago. I feel like I imagine Tom Jackson to feel; I'm very disappointed at the result for my affiliated team, but at the end of the day, I have the rest of the football landscape to worry about, too, and I have to get on with the business of being an objective analyst. I am still coming to grips with this change, and I am not really sure what the ancillary implications are for me. This may be one of these existential crises like we're seeing with Team Edward or Team Jacob. (I have a lot of 20-something women among my Facebook friends, so, trust me, I know.) See here for a funny breakdown of that Twilight sitch-ee-ation.

(Big up my man Justin Dazet for finding that. Justin writes a blog that gets into gaming and other stuff, and a San Diego area column on Geek Culture. Check him out if you're into that sort of thing.)

Momentarily, I will get back to the business of breaking down the game details, like I always do, but I thought I should at least explain why there was no impassioned, emotional screed today about the Broncos.

2. Information From My Eyes - Chargers at Broncos

a. First things first. I am going to tell you why Kyle Orton didn't start the game. He couldn't take snaps from under center and drop back effectively. It's that simple. The injury that he has prevented it. If you can only play in the shotgun, your running game is severely limited, from the perspective of the direction you can run. Josh McDaniels said this without really getting detailed, but this is what he meant.

Orton took a few snaps under center, but he really labored with his footwork, and it hindered the timing of the running game, and the Broncos could only really run to the A and B gaps. When the QB is playing slow, it makes the whole offense play slow, unfortunately.

b. The Broncos came out running the ball like they meant business. They could do that with Chris Simms under center, but Simms obviously never held his end of the bargain as a passer. When Orton came into the game, it wasn't conducive to running the ball, and neither was Orton's ability to retreat from center.

c. Knowshon Moreno scored a Touchdown, and ~~Ron~~ Nuclear Winter's crew blew the call. When I saw who the referee was, right after kickoff, I tweeted;

I am sure Moreno's play was a TD by virtue of relative positioning. To wit, Russ Hochstein's knee was across the goal line, and if his knee caused the fumble, which it clearly did, then the ball had to be across the goal line. That play was an absolute killer, because with a TD at the end of the half, the Broncos are right back in the game at 13-7. The energy of the game had momentarily shifted to the Broncos, and just like that, it was gone.

d. I was very disappointed with the defensive scheme, as I have been the last several weeks. The Broncos have really changed from an aggressive defense to one which is reading and reacting, and I don't like it at all. In the game at San Diego, the Broncos had great success pressuring the A gaps, and I saw very little effort to do that Sunday. They also got Elvis Dumervil in favorable matchups against the terrible Jeromey Clary, and again, there was none of that. Clary was even injured, and they didn't seem like they wanted to go after him. The Broncos need to get back to what made them tough on defense.

e. A little noticed good thing about Sunday was kickoff and punt coverage. The Broncos never let Darren Sproles hurt them in the return game, and both Josh Barrett and David Bruton made outstanding plays in downfield coverage.

f. The Chargers defensive backs got away with playing through the bodies of Denver receivers several times. The Broncos were a lot sloppier than San Diego, but not to the point where the penalty disparity should have been as wide as it was. It seems to me that teams which have "physical" labels like San Diego, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore get away with mugging a lot of WRs, and not just with crappy officiating crews like Nuclear Winter. It's like how you might call a foul playing an indoor basketball game at the Y, but you wouldn't call the same thing playing streetball.

g. Speaking of penalties, I want to know what the unsportsmanlike conduct was against Marcus Thomas and Ronald Fields on those two kicking plays. It seemed to me that they just hit the long snapper, though it was hard to tell from the TV angles on the recorded Short Cut. Those seemed like Nuclear Winter ticky-tack calls.

h. Andre' Goodman had a hard time dealing with the size of Malcolm Floyd on Sunday. Chris Chambers has done very well in Kansas City, but Floyd is a much tougher matchup for a guy like Goodman.

i. I put a great deal of the Broncos' recent offensive struggles on the absence of Ryan Harris. They haven't been able to protect nearly as well as they did in the first six games. That's not exactly meant to be an indictment of Tyler Polumbus, who is fine as a backup OT and special teams player. It's just recognizing the fact that Harris is one of the best RTs in the game. The timing of the offensive struggles aren't coincidental. It looks like Harris is still hurt, but let's hope he can play on the other side of the Giants game.

j. Again, the gap discipline took a vacation in the second half of the football game. Peter King thinks the defense of the first six games was a mirage, which is dramatically oversimplifying the case. They have still been quick and active for big stretches during the losing streak. It's just been less common to see them sustain it for 60 minutes lately. D.J. Williams (again) and Andra Davis both had pretty bad days in the gap discipline department.

k. I was fine with the onsides kick call, even if it didn't work. It was a good situation for it, because the Broncos were going to lose anyway without a big play.

3. Information From My Eyes - Other Games

a. Again, Thursday seems like it was a long time ago. I was very impressed with the play of Ricky Williams in the absence of Ronnie Brown. I haven't liked the play of Williams so much, maybe ever. The Dolphins didn't do much of their Wild Cute Marine Mammal stuff, but they ran very well from traditional formations, against a Carolina defense which is usually stout against the run. The direct snap stuff is good because of Brown, who has a rare instinctiveness for the options it provides. The Dolphins were smart to go back to the handoff game with Williams.

b. I still don't like Chad Henne's tattoo, but he had a very steady game. He's improving as a player every week, and I give the Dolphins a lot of credit for taking it slow with him, and developing him in an intelligent way. Tony Sparano doesn't receive a lot of acclaim, but I have been very impressed with the coaching job his staff has done for two years now.

c. The Dolphins have started ST&NO Favorite Sean Smith at RCB all season, and are now starting Vontae Davis at LCB. They have done a great job, and they really more than held their own against Muhsin Muhammad and Steve Smith last Thursday. Both guys are very talented, but again, it's a testament to the coaching they are getting from Todd Bowles, the Dolphins Assistant Head Coach and Secondary coach. I fully expect Bowles to get a head coaching job this offseason, even though nobody in the reporter-o-sphere is talking about him.

d. I criticized Joey Porter's play last week, but the benching seems to have motivated him. He was dominant, with two sacks and two other tackles for losses. It helped that Jordan Gross was hurt, but Porter looked much better than I have seen him this season, regardless of the matchup.

e. I watched a great deal of the Green Bay-San Francisco game, and I came away thinking that Aaron Rodgers has it better than Alex Smith from a protection standpoint, which isn't saying much at all, obviously. San Francisco has a pretty good LT in Joe Staley, but he's been hurt for a few weeks now. Smith couldn't do anything at all for most of the game Sunday, because he was getting hit the second he got to the top of his drops.

In the second half, with the score getting lopsided, the Niners smartened up and just put Smith in the shotgun, where he is most comfortable. He responded with 3 TD passes and made the game look like it was closer than it was. I continue to think that Smith is more than good enough to win with, if he gets protection. When you evaluate what he does in a vacuum, he's doing the right things way more often than not.

f. I have heard a lot of criticism of Aaron Rodgers lately, but he continues to look like a top-notch passer to me. He is gaining 8.2 yards per pass attempt, with 19 TDs and 5 INTs this season. He has also run for more yards than any QB in the NFL, and 3 TDs. I also tend to think you have to evaluate Rodgers in a vacuum, and other than holding the ball a little too long sometimes, he doesn't do much wrong. The last couple weeks, he's been getting the ball out quicker, too.

g. The loss of Al Harris is really going to hurt the Packers badly. It severely limits their ability to use Charles Woodson in the wide variety of roles that they liked to use him in. Woodson has often covered TEs and is a great blitzer. He's played as well as any defensive player in the NFL this season, and now the Packers may need to use him more on the outside.

I actually think the loss of Aaron Kampman is pretty negligible for them, despite his big name. He hasn't adjusted well to playing OLB, and his tallness has hurt him. By coming from a standup position, Kampman hasn't gotten the leverage he used to play with. He needs to move on to a 4-3 team where he can play on the strongside again. He's about the best in the NFL at that, after Mario Williams.

h. I can't believe the Jaguars are 6-4, but they are. When they win, they have been getting good play from David Garrard and Mike Sims-Walker, which they did on Sunday against Buffalo. Garrard is an interesting guy, because he seems young, but he isn't. He's actually 31, and he's probably reached the prime of his career. He's good enough to take a team to the playoffs, obviously, but do you build around him? I kind of feel the same way about Garrard as I did about Jake Plummer at the end of 2005, though I think Garrard is a little better player than Plummer was.

i. A guy who has been an outstanding player for a few years, without getting any credit, is Kyle Williams for the Bills. He was dominant on Sunday. Williams is kind of a short, stout DT, who does a great job getting penetration from a 3-technique position. He's never been a big sack guy, but his ability to shoot gaps has disrupted a lot of running games.

j. It's funny how many ST&NO favorites become really good players in the NFL. Percy Harvin hasn't gotten a lot of credit, because the media is busy loving on Brett Favre, but he's become a good NFL receiver quickly. A lot of Mel Kiper's said Harvin didn't run a lot of routes at Florida, but he was always open when he did. It was clear to me that he'd be able to separate with quickness as he learned NFL technique. His technique is improving quickly, and he's a handful. Along with Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian, he's part of a really dangerous receiving corps. I can't think of a lot of groups I'd take over them, actually.

k. Joseph Addai has never been a favorite of mine, but he's playing better than ever lately. I still think that Donald Brown is going to be the better player, but Addai seems to have found some confidence and toughness that I never perceived in him.

l. The AFC has had a lot of outstanding safety play this season, but if I had to pick two starters for the Pro Bowl, they'd be Melvin Bullitt and Bernard Pollard. Bullitt got some notice for stopping the 4th and 2 last week, but he has been terrific in replacing Bob Sanders. Tampa 2-teams need a quick safety who can get from a cover-2 shell to the box very quickly, and Bullitt has done it as well as Sanders ever did.

Pollard was cut by Kansas City, and I just didn't get it. Maybe Scott Pioli was paying him back for last season's hit on Tom Brady? Pollard has been spectacular at times for the Texans, and has really been the star on the back end that they've never had. (No, Dunta Robinson is not a star; he's only paid like one.)

Brian Dawkins, Ed Reed, Jairus Byrd, Antoine Bethea, Kerry Rhodes, Brandon Meriweather, and Reggie Nelson would be battling it out for the last Pro Bowl spot, but I am sure about the top 2, as of today.

m. Laurence Maroney is doing a decent job of re-establishing his reputation as a solid RB. He has had the knock of not being particularly tough, kind of like Addai, but Maroney has been picking up a lot of tough yards lately. Take away the goal-line fumble against he Colts, and he's been really good.

n. Mark Sanchez looked confused almost the whole game on Sunday, against a New England team that knows how to confuse a QB. Sanchez is a classic example of what happens when teams get some film on you and know what you're going to do. I don't think it's time to bench him, like the average Peter King is calling for, but it would definitely behoove the Jets to figure out what Sanchez is comfortable doing, and sticking to only that stuff.

o. I can tell you right now, the Lions had a fantastic draft in 2009. Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew, and Louis Delmas all look like future Pro Bowlers. MHR favorite Sammie Lee Hill has been a solid starter at DT, and DeAndre Levy has been solid starting at WLB, since Ernie Sims as lost for the season, too. The guy I might like best, actually, is sixth-rounder Aaron Brown, a RB from TCU. He caught a TD pass on Sunday, but where he looked really dangerous was on kickoff returns. He's very explosive looking. I think Derrick Williams will eventually be a useful player too, and that makes 7 hits in one draft class. It's exactly the kind of performance that their opponents from Sunday (the Browns) need.

p. Speaking of he Browns, I have some thoughts. It sucks to lose like that, on an untimed down, but if I was a Browns fan, I would feel a lot better than I did a week ago. Brady Quinn had his best day as a pro, with 4 TD passes, and a 5th one dropped. Sure, he wasn't pressured a lot, when Detroit didn't blitz, but he looked like he was in command, and the offensive game plan looked like Brian Daboll trusted Quinn, finally. Mohamed Massaquoi and Chansi Stuckey did a very nice job making plays down the field.

I mentioned that the Browns need a good draft; they have 11 picks as of right now, and they need to hit on the majority of them. If I were their new football czar, I wouldn't draft a QB in the first round. I would give Quinn a full year with better talent (and coaching), and see what I have. My target would be Russell Okung, an OT from Oklahoma State, who I'd play on the right side. The Browns' current right side is flat-out awful. I'd be bringing in 2 good RBs, since they have zero right now. They need a Correll Buckhalter-type of free agent, and a second-round pick like a Jonathan Dwyer from Georgia Tech. One of their 3rd-round picks would go for a TE who can catch, like Ed Dickson from Oregon. With 2 new RBs, a TE, and a RT, all of a sudden, you have a solid group of players on offense.

Offense has to be the priority, because their 5 TDs on Sunday matched their previous total in 9 games. They aren't really that far away from being league-average, and I only used 3 of 11 picks in this hypothetical situation. The Browns could be 8-8 or 9-7 next season, if they make the most of their offseason opportunities. I can see it now; Todd Bowles wins coach of the year for them, after going from 2-14 to 9-7.

q. The Texans just continue to lose heartbreakers. Matt Schaub made plays, again, and gave his team a chance to win, again. And then Kris Brown blew it, again. I feel really bad for guys like Schaub, Andre Johnson and Mario Williams, who bring it every week. I'd hate to see these circumstances cost Gary Kubiak his job, but they just might.

r. I was going to talk about how everybody needs to slow down on the Vince Young hype train, but he justified the hype Monday night. Repeatedly, he picked up 3rd downs with his legs, and his throwing was pretty good too. He particularly threw a pretty ball that Nate Washington didn't come down with. He looked like he did at the University of Texas. You heard it here first; the Titans are going to beat San Diego by 2 TDs in a few weeks.

s. Trent Dilfer is a really terrible analyst, and I don't get the Steve Levy and Matt Winer combination with him. Usually, there's one anchor type to serve up softballs to the analyst. It's a weird setup. Back to Dilfer, I think the guy is just about always wrong.

t. Right after I typed that, ESPN went back to the Stuart Scott-Matt Millen-Steve Young set, and they proceeded to blame Matt Schaub for Kris Brown's missed field goal. Epic FAIL. All the guy could do was what he did. He moved his team down the field in 45 seconds, and set them up with a shot at a makeable kick. How in the world does that fall on the QB that they lost the game? That is just too idiotic for words

4. As promised, here is the rationale for why the Broncos can win on Thursday night. The Giants are extremely susceptible to getting beaten down the field, since they lost their starting Free Safety, Kenny Phillips. They are getting Aaron Ross back into the swing of things at CB, but he hadn't played all season, prior to this past Sunday.

With their shakiness on the back end, the Giants have blitzed a bit less than in past years, particularly in the A gaps. Tyler Polumbus will need some help on Justin Tuck, when they're matched up, but I expect the Broncos to be able to protect Kyle Orton reasonably well.

The Giants, meanwhile, aren't getting much from their running game lately. I also believe that their WRs don't pose a huge threat against Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman. David Diehl will almost certainly struggle against Elvis Dumervil, because he's a natural LG playing LT. I feel pretty good about the defensive matchup, really.

This game is no lock, obviously, but it's one which the Broncos can win if they execute, stop taking bad penalties, and take care of the football. John Bena had it exactly right Sunday night. The Broncos can't beat good teams if they make mistakes, and the Giants are a good team. A victory is very plausible, though, if they do what they need to do.

5. I have cited several reasons lately for cutting ST&NO a little short, and I have another one. I got a bit sidetracked from writing, because of some big news in my family, which led to some calling, texting, and emailing, but not much writing.

On Monday night, my brother Chris911's wife Ana gave birth to their first child, Elizabeth Danielle Bartlett, at 7:36 Pacific Time, in Los Angeles, CA. Elizabeth weighed 5 pounds, 12.5 ounces, and was 17 1/4 inches long. Mother and baby are doing well. It occurred to me that I was in a good position to write the first birth announcement. Please join me in congratulating Chris and Ana on the birth of the newest little Broncos fan.

Since I am decidedly not in the having kids business, I took some time to live vicariously through them, and try to feel their excitement. Now, I am going to get back to living vicariously though myself, though. Y'all know how I do...

6. I am hitting the road for Connecticut on Tuesday, right after this story posts, to go eat some turkey, take a hellified tryptophan nap, and find a bar with NFL Network. My main reason for going, though, is to play in the 38th Annual Erb-Orsini Bowl in my hometown of Norwich, CT. I am only 32, so it predates me, but I have played in a number of them over the years. I said I would try to go back east for it last year, but it was snowing all across Pennsylvania, and I decided at the last minute to stay in Cleveland. I wasn't feeling 600 miles of driving in snow. This year, I wanted to show up and play, and the weather is cooperative. I have too much work to do to take the time, but I am going to work on Wednesday from a Tim Horton's restaurant.

The Erb-Orsini Bowl is a touch game, but it's been pretty physical and competitive in the past. The picture below is from the 2004 game. I am on the left. On the right is my brother John. He laid out for a pass early in the game, and was shaken up. His shoulder hurt, and he said that he didn't want to catch any more passes, and that he'd just stay in and pass-block, so he did just that. Thirty-six hours later, after not saying anything more about the topic, he decided to go to the hospital. Turned out, he had broken his shoulder. It's kind of the Bartlett way to suffer in silence, really, which is owed to being half Irish.

The keeper of the flame is the guy in the midde, my long-time friend Tony Orsini. Tony, as it happens, is a huge Giants fan. He's such a huge fan, actually, that he and his dad spent thousands of dollars to go to Arizona and get tickets for Super Bowl XLII against the mighty Patriots. Against that 16-0 team, i would have never spent that kind of coin, but he did, and he was rewarded. (To me, when I heard about it, it sounded like that time in 7th grade when I bet Pete Lacombe 5 bucks that Denver would beat San Francisco, straight-up, in Super Bowl XXIV, even though my allowance was $2 per week at that time. That was an all-time dumb call.)

On Thursday morning, I am hoping for a good Erb-Orsini Bowl, where I make some big plays, and on Thursday night, for our Broncos to beat Tony's Giants. Do any of y'all have good Turkey Bowls to play in? Let's hear some tangential Thanksgiving football stories. You might as well get with me on this meandering, because you never know where we might end up when the carousel stops.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. The Buffalo coaching search is interesting. We know they've reached out to Mike Shanahan, and word materialized Monday night/Tuesday morning that Bill Cowher was contacted, and that he declined to be considered. Ralph Wilson is 91, and he wants to win now. Unfortunately for Buffalo, he is relatively cash-poor, and the team probably doesn't stay in his family when he dies, due to estate taxation. If it leaves his family, it almost certainly leaves Buffalo, which is a rapidly declining city.

If I were a coach looking for work, I would consider Buffalo unattractive for those reasons, as well as for the fact that they don't have a QB or any real quality on the O-Line. They have 2 good RBs, the fantastic Lee Evans, some good CBs and a good young safety in Jairus Byrd and pass rusher in Aaron Maybin. Paul Posluszny is solid, and Kyle Williams is very good, as I mentioned. The cupboard is not totally empty talent-wise, but it's a serious personnel challenge in a boring, economically depressed cold-weather town. The only thing they have on Cleveland, in terms of attracting free agents, is marginally better-looking uniforms. I expect that the Bills end up hiring a first time Head Coach, after being spurned by Shanahan and others.

That's all I have for this week, friends. I am off to get on the road for the East Coast. I won't see any comments until 10 or 11 hours from now, but I will check them out when I get where I am going, and will answer the ones that need answering. Have a great week, a great holiday, and a great Football Thursday. Go Broncos!

Horse Tracks 11/20/09 - Orton, Buckhalter, Jordan miss practice; Marshall, Barrett (limited) return

Douglas A. Lee — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:03:54 -0000

NFL Films - Week 11: Chargers vs. Broncos Preview - Video

DB - Week 11 - Thu: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DB - Taking Notice - Zach Eisendrath
"There were four changes to the Broncos’ Injury Report on Thursday. After neither player participated in Wednesday’s practice session, Josh Barrett (hamstring) was a limited participant on Thursday and Brandon Marshall (neck) was listed as a full participant. Correll Buckhalter (knee) and Brandon Lloyd (foot) were both limited participants on Wednesday, however, neither took part in Thursday’s practice session."

DPP - Broncos' Kyle Orton misses practice again - Jeff Legwold
"The injury has been described as a torn ligament by some, but it is a case of semantics, given that any sprain is, by definition, a tearing of soft tissue."

DPP - New team brings unrivaled disdain in Broncoland - The Denver Post
"Broncos fan website Mile High Report conducted a similar survey Thursday, and found a similar response. With more than 1,200 online votes recorded by late Thursday afternoon, 62 percent picked the Chargers, compared to about 20 percent for the Raiders and 17 percent for the Chiefs."

"What I've seen in the comments on the poll, it is almost divided by age group," said John Bena, a longtime Broncos fan who founded Mile High Report three years ago. "The really old-school fans, they picked Kansas City, because that's the oldest rival. Then the older fans that grew up in the '70s-'80s-'90s, it's the Raiders. But for newer fans, from the Super Bowl years on, it's been the Chargers, because the Chargers have been relevant in that time."

NFLN - Brandon Marshall interview - Video
Wow. Check out the (not very good) painting in the background of BMarsh and JC.

NFL - With Bolts on deck, Broncos bumbling, but will they bust? - Vic Carucci
"The biggest problem with the Broncos' defense in recent games, according to Andra Davis, is that it has gotten away from the highly disciplined approach it showed through the first six weeks. Too many players have become interested in being recognized for individually making plays rather than sticking to their responsibilities within the scheme."

NYT - Ouster of N.F.L.’s Voice on Concussions, Dr. Ira Casson, Is Sought - Alan Schwarz
"The NFLPA is calling for the removal of Dr. Ira Casson as co-chairman of the league’s committee on concussions, saying that he is too biased to lead the research and policy group...Casson has dismissed every outside study finding links to dementia and other cognitive decline, including three papers published by the University of North Carolina’s Center for the Study of Retired Athletes." It is ridiculous for a doctor being paid by and representing the NFL to be performing exams on players for an NFL concussion study.

NYT - Weighing the Toll of Contact in Practice - Judy Battista
I've got to wonder - is all the practicing in pads this summer starting to tire out the Broncos defense? I know the company line this week has been that the unit's players have been going too often for the "big play" or "individual glory" but doesn't that strike you as a little hard to believe? I don't see a lot of egos on the Broncos' D, and with BDawk leading the way I can't see guys losing their discipline. Obviously, this is only speculation and it could never be more than that, but what do you think?

DB - Soy-Based Success - Gray Caldwell
Who would ever have guessed? Kenny Peterson is a pescatarian (vegetarian who eats fish). He made the switch a year ago due to his blood type.

DB - Providing Perspective - Broncos TV
The Broncos talk about this week as a chance to rebuild a division lead.

DP - Dawkins tabbed for player forum - Jeff Legwold
Leaders lead...

DPP - Broncos linebacker Davis thankful he's out of Cleveland - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Spotlight: Broncos rookie safety David Bruton - Lindsay Jones

DPP - Analysis: Jackson's improvement great for Gates, Chargers - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Q&A: Will the Shanahan staff reassemble somewhere? - Jeff Legwold
"Running backs coach Bobby Turner, offensive line coach Rick Dennison, special-teams assistant Keith Burns and strength and conditioning coach Rich Tuten were retained by Josh McDaniels, but the remainder of the Shanahan assistants were let go. All have worked with Shanahan for a long time and all could be possibilities to go to Shanahan's new team at some point, if for some reason they wanted to leave Denver or contract situations could be worked out."

LTC - Ayers still adjusting - Brian Howell

LTC - Broncos QB Orton improving - Brian Howell
Note: this was written before Orton missed yesterday's practice.

CSG - Simms ready, if needed - Frank Schwab

CSG - Broncos thin at running back - Frank Schwab
"Knowshon Moreno and Peyton Hillis were the only tailbacks from the 53-man roster healthy enough to practice Thursday because Correll Buckhalter (knee) and LaMont Jordan (back) missed practice."

CSG - Orton missed second straight practice - Frank Schwab

AP - Chris Simms gearing up for 1st start since '06 injury - Arnie Stapleton

ESPN Insider - Chargers-Broncos: 10 observations - Doug Kretz
San Diego 21 Denver 20

PFW - Return of defensive players should improve Giants - Eric Edholm

Chargers News

SDUT - Chargers see wildcat as more than gimmick - Chris Jenkins

SDUT - Depth at linebacker paying off

SDUT - Binn belongs in - Mike Fleiss

SDUT - Clary doesn't work - Kevin Acee
"Everyone else (except center Nick Hardwick, who is not going to play again Sunday) worked today. "

PFW - Injuries allow Chargers ILB Siler to carve out role - Michael Blunda

NCT - Cromartie believes he has improved - Scott Bair

NCT - Defense prepares for system, not the quarterback - Scott Bair

NCT - Trouble at right tackle; injury update - Scott Bair

NFL Results

NFL - Miami Dolphins 24 at Carolina Panthers 17

SN - Williams' running helps Henne have a pro day - Vinnie Iyer

AFC West News

NFP - Diner morning news: Russell move long overdue - Mike Lombardi

KCS - Long has his big chance with the Chiefs - Kent Babb

KCS - Chiefs notes | Steelers are what Haley hopes his team can be - Adam Teicher

SFC - Hard-working Gradkowski gives foes new look - David White

OT - Benching JaMarcus Russell a call for Raiders' quarterback to shape up - Monte Poole

NFL News

NFL - NFL names Dungy to lead newly formed Player Advisory Forum

NFL - Vikings reward Childress with contract extension through 2013

NFL - Bengals RB Benson likely out vs. Raiders

NFL - Redskins RB Portis ruled out vs. Cowboys because of concussion

NFL - Week 11 injuries: Saints’ Bush misses second practice

NFL - A change is gonna come: Owner Wilson ready to revamp Bills

NFL - Torn ACL ends season for up-and-coming Rams DE Ah You

NFP - Brohm’s arrival signals change for Buffalo - Matt Bowen
The Bills snatched another recent draft choice off the Packers' practice squad; this time it's 2008 second-rounder QB Brian Brohm. Before that, it was '09 fifth-rounder OT Jamon Meredith.

FH - Bears Shun NBC for Sunday Night Game - Matt Snyder

NFL Opinion

SI - Mike Shanahan, Leslie Frazier among NFL coaching candidates - Don Banks
"The smart money continues to be on Washington and Danny "Warbucks'' Snyder (we could call it the Danny and Shanny show)."

Y! - Eagles, Packers' futures brighter than Giants' - Charles Robinson

SN - For three struggling QBs, it's November nosedive - Clifton Brown

Y! - Gruden finds safe haven in the booth - Mike Silver

FH - Thursday-and-Long: It's Rex Ryan's Party, He Can Cry If He Wants To - Dan Graziano

FOX - It's a QB's world in today's NFL - Alex Marvez

CBS - Hungry Jones-Drew rushing to elite stature - Pete Prisco

NFL - Bengals have easy out if they lose their gamble with LJ - Steve Wyche

SI - Larry Johnson will try to resurrect career with Bengals - Paul Daugherty

FOX - NFL Truths: LeBron needs to focus on NBA - Jason Whitlock

ESPN - Percy Harvin is making Vikings QB Brett Favre look good - Elizabeth Merrill

FOX - Boom or Bust: Who's to blame for Bills' struggles? - Adam Schein

SI - Wildcat revolution fails to materialize in NFL in 2009 - Andrew Perloff

PFW - Mays' freakish talent being preserved - Nolan Nawrocki

Picks, Etc.

NFP - The Player's Picks: Week 11 - Matt Bowen
"I see a great AFC West game with Nate Kaeding winning it on a long field goal in the fourth quarter as the Chargers take over the West."

NYT - Week 11 N.F.L. Matchups - Mike Tanier
"After 20 years, the dossier on Norv Turner is complete...As a disciplinarian and motivator, he ranks somewhere between Dick Jauron and a substitute gym teacher...We’ll learn over the next few weeks whether McDaniels will correct those mistakes, get overwhelmed by them or adopt Turner’s philosophy: ignore them and hope his veterans bail him out."

NFL - McNabb-Cutler duel leads solid list of Week 11 matchups

ESPN - Sunday Countdown online: Your weekly NFL guide - Week 11

SI - The Peter King Challenge
"Prediction: San Diego Chargers 30, Denver Broncos 14"

FH - Week 11 NFL Picks: Colts Goin' Down - Dave Goldberg

Poll

What do you think is behind the Broncos' defensive woes?

They're losing discipline

133 votes

They're getting worn down

189 votes

Opponents have figured out how to beat them

155 votes

They simply had a rough stretch

102 votes

579 votes | Poll has closed

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:30:18 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

about 1 month ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall is stopped by Washington Redskins cornerback DeAngelo Hall during the third quarter of the NFL football game, Nov. 15, 2009 in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

Browse more photos »

Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Here we are again, with another loss to contend with. This one is worse than the last two, because this one looked like a sure victory when we were marking off W's and L's on the schedule. Of course, if Kyle Orton didn't get hurt, it probably is a W, and the Broncos are still sitting on a 1-game lead over the Chargers. Since that's not the way it played out, we have to do the other thing.

We'll get into the details, from soup to chocolate cake, and make some sense of all this, because that's what we do here. We'll explore what happened, we'll find some things to feel positive about, and we'll have some fun. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!!

1. There's a certain interconnectedness to a football game, and its outcome, among all phases of the game, and all 45 active players. I've talked about this many times before, and John Bena called the loss a team effort in his postgame writeup. I would call this a team effort whose final score is mostly attributable to the poor second half play of the offense, and mostly, of Chris Simms.

What I mean by that is this. Over the first 6 games of the season, the Broncos led the league in scoring defense. They were especially strong defensively in the second half of games. That trend has been turned on its head the last 3 weeks. The last two weeks, especially, I believe that the main reason why the defense struggled in the second half was that they were on the field for too many plays, due to the struggles of the offense. Each side of the ball needs to help the other. The Broncos have been getting shut down on offense, and worn down on defense, and it's been difficult to watch.

Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth were going on and on Sunday night about how the Colts led the NFL in scoring defense heading into this week. If you've watched the Colts, they don't even have a particularly good defense, if there is any chance you can run the ball against them. They have allowed so few points because they deliberately shorten the game when they're on offense, and because once they get a lead, the strength of their defense comes to the fore. They rush the passer well with four men, and drop 7 men into cover-2. If you stay out of situations that are favorable to Indianapolis, you can gash their defense.

This is what has been happening to the Broncos as well. Remember - in the first 6 games, the offense did its best work in the second half of games. They possessed the ball, they took their time, and they methodically controlled the games. When the defense was on the field, they were fresh, they substituted frequently, and they made plays to get off the field quickly.

Kyle Orton played great in the first half Sunday, just as he'd played very well in the first half of the Pittsburgh game, (outside the one interception). For all the hollering that went on about his lack of deep throwing, he threw a couple very nice deep balls for TDs to Brandon Marshall, and he just barely missed another to Eddie Royal. That opened the field vertically. He also did a very nice job on a few bootleg throws to Tony Scheffler, and a crossing pattern to Marshall. Those plays stretched the field horizontally.

The Broncos had Washington where they wanted them. Remember, they moved the ball on the possession where Correll Buckhalter fumbled, and they had the 17-play drive at the end of the first half, to take the 3-point lead. The Orton injury changed the entire complexion of the game. Simms simply couldn't complete a pass, and didn't seem to know where to go with the ball, and a lot of good work by Knowshon Moreno was wasted.

Most teams will struggle when they lose their starting QB. That's a function of the fact that there aren't 32 good QBs in the NFL, let alone 64 of them. I came into this game thinking that the Broncos are in good shape with Simms, if they needed to use him. I hope that he shows better if he has to play against San Diego, after a week of first-team reps. I still do tend to think that Simms can play.

You hate to have a game get away from you because your backup QB couldn't cut it. The only thing worse would be if two games got away for that reason. I expect that Josh McDaniels will have Simms ready to go next week, and that the gameplan will play to his strengths, if they need to use him.

You have to be careful not to let one game unduly affect an evaluation of a team. All the time, teams lay eggs in games, and lose (or nearly lose) to teams they should blow out. Look no further than New Orleans on Sunday, who seemingly tried to lose to St. Louis. Not to say that Dallas should have blown out Green Bay, but they shouldn't have gotten dominated like they did, either.

There's a lot of Chicken Little stuff going on here, and the one thing that will stop it is a victory against San Diego next week. Yes, I know that the Chargers are on a winning streak and the Broncos are on a losing streak. Remember when the Broncos had won 6 in a row, and the Ravens had lost 3 in a row? The Broncos can beat San Diego, which we know, because they already have this season. If they win that game, they'll re-take command of the division, with a one-game lead, and a sweeping of the head-to-head matchup.

2. In the big-time matchup of the week, the Colts got a win against the Patriots, and on Monday, Bill Belichick is being blamed by everybody who doesn't like him personally (AKA just about everyone). The fact is, Belichick has never curried favor with the media, and reporters tend to be critical of you every chance they get, if you don't pay them their due deference.

Joe Biden could tell you all about how that works. He never trusted the media after their treatment of the death of his first wife and daughter in 1972, and it always hurt him later, particularly in his two Presidential bids. John McCain and Barack Obama both have very deft touches with the media, and longstanding strategies of providing them a lot of access, and it was no accident that both were the nominees of their parties in 2008. If you're going to be a public figure, there's a clear benefit to cultivating relationships with reporters. The thing is, not everybody has the stomach for it, and Belichick is one of those guys who doesn't. Brett Favre benefits immensely from his relationship-building efforts, to the point of it being sickening most of the time. I heard somewhere recently that Favre spends hours with the TV guys on Saturday afternoons, as long as they want to hang out, and they really can't help but love on him.

Back to the lecture at hand, I would have done exactly the same thing as Belichick in that game situation, in going for it on 4th and 2 from his own 28. Why did he do it? Because he was pretty close to certain that he would lose the game if he punted, that's why.

Let's say you go by the book, and punt. Over all 2,293 punts in the NFL in 2008, the average net change in field position was 39.53 yards. The right call, if you ask Peter King, or others, was to punt, and give Manning the ball at his own 32, with about 2 minutes, and all 3 timeouts left. I say that that is choosing to lose the game in a way that will leave the coach blameless, as far as the idiot media is concerned. Well, he trusted his defense, and he played the percentages; it's not the coach's fault. Except he didn't play the percentages.

First of all, let's get this nonsense about trusting your defense dispensed with. You should always trust your defense. Former defensive players like Tedy Bruschi, Matt Bowen, and old friend Tom Jackson love this line of thinking, but it's utter horse (manure). You should only trust your defense if you think they are likely to make the stop, and win you the game. If you think they aren't, then it's a fool's errand to trust them. You say to them, hey, realistically, you guys probably weren't going to stop Peyton Manning, which really doesn't make you much different from any other team's defense. There is no room for blind machismo, or making a statement, or worrying about hurt feelings; this is about winning football games, nothing more.

I didn't spend a great deal of time on it, but I took a look at every game recap for the Colts since 2005. (I think 4 ½ seasons is a reasonable sample size.) Since then, including the postseason, Manning has had the ball late in the game, trailing, on 19 occasions which I counted. He came through to either tie or take the lead 15 times, which is a 79% success rate. (In 2007, he was 1-for-4, which was pretty aberrant for this sample. Two of those misses were against the strong 2007 Chargers, whom the Colts struggled to pass-protect against.)

Here's the deal. Statistically, you have a 60% chance of picking up 4th and 2, but that probability is almost certainly greater, due to the fact that you have an outstanding offense, and the Colts have an average-at-best defense. If I were Belichick, I would have put my conversion probability at 70% for that play. That same source says that an average team returning a punt, given those field position- and time parameters, scores 53% of the time. We already know Manning succeeds 79% of the time, because he's one of the greatest QBs ever.

You can choose to probably win, or you can choose to probably lose, in one moment. What do you choose?

Belichick chose to probably win, and came up on the side where the probable outcome wasn't the actual outcome. Serious poker players know exactly what I am talking about here. Sometimes, you play the hand correctly, and you go all-in with the best cards, but you lose anyway. It's a fact of life. You accept it, and you don't complain about it, because you know you made the right call, regardless of the outcome. The next time you're faced with the same situation, you do the same thing, again, because it was the right call.

When I got home Monday night, all I saw and heard was TV talking heads second-guessing the decision. Stuart Scott pretty much butchered the stats, but he actually cited our friends at AdvancedNFLStats.com. The shockingly anti-intellectual Steve Young promptly claimed that the stats aren't legitimate (except they are). We got to hear from Tedy Bruschi how he'd feel as a defensive player on the Patriots, as if that's germane to anything at all. Trent Dilfer's blood boils when he hears the "other side" of the argument, AKA the correct side. Blah, blah, blah. (Sorry, brief possession by an ex-wife-like-entity again.)

Just imagine the reaction if Kevin Faulk had made the 2 yards. The stories today would have been about the stones on Belichick, and how he is such a great coach to make a risky call. It would be like Mike Shanahan going for 2 in the Hochuli Game last season. (Shanahan correctly thought that was his best chance to win. He felt he had a better-than-50 percent chance of scoring the conversion, and he knew that he had a 50% chance of winning a coin toss, and about a 98% chance that the Chargers would score in overtime, if he lost the toss.)

I'm no great defender of Belichick, the man, but when he's right, he's right. If it's an average QB, and an average offense, you might punt in that situation, but against Manning, that's always going to be the wrong call on 4th and 2. Once again, Belichick is smarter than the average bear, and smarter than every member of the football MSM.

3. Information From My Eyes - Broncos at Redskins

a. All four deep throws Orton made were good throws. Eddie Royal misjudged the one incompletion, and Brandon Marshall got out-fought by DeAngelo Hall on the second, but both were definitely well-thrown balls.

b. That fake field goal was a debacle, but I don't personally blame Mike Priefer. My goat on that play is Darrell Reid, who was telling Marcus Thomas to cover Mike Sellers, while he decided to contain the left edge of the offense, as the play flowed right. Alphonso Smith caught some initial blame, but I disagree there. He was in deep center field, and flowed with the play, like anybody would coach him to. Who knew Hunter Smith could throw back across the field?

c. Ryan Clady got beat badly once on Sunday. That doesn't happen often at all, obviously. That's the first sack he allowed that I would say was fully on him.

d. From the department of good news, Matt Prater doesn't seem to be having a second-half slump this season.

e. I was very impressed with Knowshon Moreno's vision and quickness on Sunday.

f. I've already made my evaluation of Mitch Berger, so everybody knows where I am at on that one. I saw somewhere where Frank Schwab, some beat reporter, speculated that Mitch Berger's 65-yard punt might save his job. If a kick that went about 42 yards in the air, and rolled 23 on the ground can do that, something absurd is going on.

g. I had a busy workday Monday, which set my schedule back, and is unfortunately going to preclude me from taking the time to do Between The Lines this week.

On watching the game a second time, though, it occurred to me that the bulk of Washington's success in running the ball was on zone-blocked plays. As I think about it, the Broncos haven't faced much of that this season at all; really just Oakland, who does it crappily. That's really something to work on, because the lateral movement seemed to unsettle the Broncos defensive line.

h. D.J. Williams got blocked a lot, and took a lot of bad angles. Again. This is getting to be an annoying habit.

i. Andra Davis continued to be a bright spot. He is a terrific blitzer and has a great sense of timing for delaying his rush. His missed tackle on that Devin Thomas catch and run in the 4th quarter was bad, but he otherwise graded out very well.

j. On a painful second pass watching the game, Chris Simms lacked timing with the receivers, as much as anything. Every throw was a little late. It seems like Orton may be able to play next Sunday, but if it's Simms, I hope a week's worth of reps will help him build some timing.

4. Information From My Eyes - Other Games:

a. I was really curious to see the Buffalo-Tennessee game, and I recorded the Short Cut overnight, and watched the game Monday evening. Why would I care about this game? Well, the two teams played in the Hall of Fame Game, way back when it was still warm in Cleveland, and my girlfriend at the time called at halftime to break up with me.

In that game, the Bills couldn't block Tennessee, and the Titans looked like a Super Bowl team. So, I wanted to watch Sunday's game, because I wanted a good sense of where these two teams are. Tennessee probably isn't going to make the playoffs, after starting 0-6, but they've righted their ship, and they'd be trouble if they did make it. Their defensive line is still nasty, and I continue to be impressed with the job William Hayes is doing in replacing Jevon Kearse.

b. On the other side, the Bills still are below average on their offensive line. Their two highly-drafted rookies, Eric Wood, and Andy Levitre, particularly struggled, as they both had in the preseason game. Levitre even ended up playing some LT, due to an injury, and he really struggled outside. Wood got pushed backwards consistently in the passing game, and he's been generally pretty good as a rookie. The Bills need to shore up their offensive line in the offseason, and I am sure their new head coach will make that a priority, if they hire a competent one.

c. I am ready to make a pronouncement. If Vince Young couldn't run, he'd be the second coming of Trent Dilfer. He really isn't much of a thrower of the ball, and he leaves too much air under his throws. You can get by with him in a run-heavy offense, which is what the Titans really are.

Because he can run, he adds a useful element, and the team is really dangerous on option plays, and QB runs. His running ability can dictate that teams play man-to-man defense, and keep a guy out of coverage to spy him. Really, the Titans are back to being the 10-6ish team they were in 2007. I think they'll ultimately decide to stick with Young for next season, and look to build up the interior of their offensive line, and their back 7 on defense.

d. It seems like forever ago, but I did watch the Chicago-San Francisco game intently last Thursday. I think my first thought that I'd like to share is that the Bears defense played like they had some pride. I think Tommie Harris playing well made a huge difference. He is really the key to their whole scheme. I ripped him, and them, last week, and I told the guy from WCG who took exception that I'd say when they played well on defense. They did.

e. I don't really feel like I should say anything about Jay Cutler, because this column aims to stay away from saying obvious things. I'll just say it must be nice to have so many apologists when you mess up. He's like the second coming of Ronald Reagan with how teflon he is.

(Tangential ST&NO story - Reagan is a member of my fraternity. When he died in June of 2004, I was a senior at CSU, and President of my chapter, and I was asked to go on local television, to talk about Reagan as a fraternity man. Our guys did a fundraiser, and jumped on a trampoline for 54 straight days in the 80s, to break a Guinness record, while Frater Ronnie was POTUS. He sent us a congratulatory letter, so I focused on that with the news chick, Angie Lau. I had nothing but nice things to say, as Ronnie was definitely a good fraternity man.)

f. Peter King is really proud of himself for naming San Francisco's Aubrayo Franklin a midseason All-Pro as a NT. When Franklin got that scoring-area INT early on last Thursday, I kind of groaned, because I knew there was going to be some crowing about it.

I never have felt like Franklin jumped out, so I watched him closely, and my review is mixed. He didn't play a lot of snaps, so I wonder about his conditioning. He did play pretty stout against the run at times, and I felt like he was a good player overall when he was on the field. I could easily name 10-12 interior defensive players who are better, though. I guess it's fun to have a guy who is your guy, though.

g. Is Marc Bulger a veteran QB? I have always thought he was, but his command of clock management seemed really bad on Sunday. The Rams had a pretty good shot to beat the Saints, and Bulger and his receivers blew it. Man, I can't tell you how much I would hate to be associated with that team, in any capacity. It's got to be so disheartening to have no talent, be almost completely uncompetitive, then have a chance to beat an undefeated team, and blow it. Can you imagine what it's like to be a fan of such a team?

h. Reggie Bush had a really big game for the Saints on Sunday, stepping up from his usual "highly-paid-decoy" role. It's interesting to speculate on how the Saints value him. Obviously, they don't think he's a full-time RB, but he's paid like he's Adrian Peterson. I'd be happy to have him as a swing player, between RB and WR, but he's a backup at both positions, and I'd only pay him backup money. We'll soon see what the Saints think, because if I recall correctly, his contract is pretty well back-loaded.

i. Josh Freeman continues to look like he's the real deal for the Buccaneers, and Raheem Morris continues to look like he's gotten his bearings as a Head Coach. Both did a nice job in Sunday's game, despite Miami's comeback victory.

j. Speaking of Miami, I want to address the "Wildcat." The Dolphins are the only team which has had a lot of success with it, and every time they have a game with limited success, somebody speculates that the "trend" has run its course.

The thing is, Miami doesn't treat it like a trend. They treat it as a key part of the way they play offense, which puts their best players on the field together. They are committed to it, and they will continue to run it. They trade the disadvantage of being formationally unlikely to throw for the advantage of having 2-3 players who are good ball-carriers, who might get the ball in the running game. Other teams are finding that the direct-snap game maybe doesn't work for them. For Miami, it will continue to be an important part of their gameplan.

k. Joey Porter has had a pretty sub-par year, and he was a healthy scratch on Sunday. That raised some eyebrows, and Tony Sparano wouldn't comment on it. It actually parallels Adalius Thomas basically being shut down by the Patriots. Both teams are showing that having a big name and a big salary doesn't guarantee playing time, if you aren't producing on the field. Expect both players to be released after the season.

l. Another game I decided to watch on Monday was Jacksonville at the Jets. The Jets miss Kris Jenkins terribly, and their defense is nowhere near as good as it was when he was healthy. They are having to scheme to stop the inside run, and to keep Bart Scott and David Harris clean, and these things used to just happen. I expect New England to blow them out this coming week.

m. I can see why people like Mark Sanchez, but I continue not to be a fan. He's well-coached, and he has excellent fundamentals. I just think he's very limited as a natural thrower of the ball. I consider him to be a poor man's Matt Ryan, which is another way of calling him a middle class man's Chad Pennington.

Sanchez plays in a windy place, which I have noted before, and that's going to always be an issue. Another issue is that the offensive scheme he is playing in is very vertical, and Sanchez is a poster boy for the West Coast Offense. Rex Ryan inherited Brian Schottenheimer as offensive coordinator, but I don't think Schottenheimer and Sanchez are a very good match. I have to wonder if the Jets don't make a change in the offseason, to bring in somebody to make the passing game's design more horizontal. Mike Shanahan could do wonders with Sanchez, although he won't be going to New York.

Really, as I think about it, if Sanchez and Jason Campbell could trade offensive coaching staffs, they'd probably both be much better off. Two owners traded teams once; why couldn't this happen?

n. There was a crazy sequence in the third quarter, where Sanchez threw an interception to Quentin Groves, then Maurice Jones-Drew fumbled at the goal line, and then Braylon Edwards fumbled at the end of a 41-yard catch. It was a whole lot of ugly going on at once, like the perennially sloppy tendencies of the Jaguars were rubbing off on the Jets.

o. Torry Holt was a great player for many years, despite playing for some obscure St. Louis teams. Really, you could make a case that he was a better player than a few Hall of Famers. (How about Art Monk, Steve Largent, and Lynn Swann to name a few?) I would go so far as to say that he was better than any WR the Broncos have had in my lifetime, a little ahead of Rod Smith.

My point in giving Holt credit, is that I have to say that I think he is getting pretty close to the end of the line. He has really struggled to get any separation, in the times I have watched him this season. He had two strong games, against St. Louis (bad defense) and Seattle (garbage time in a 41-0 game), but I haven't been impressed with his recent work.

p. I loved the call by the Jaguars to have Jones-Drew take a knee and run the clock out. His apology to his fantasy owners made me cringe, though. I may be 7-3 in the official MHR league, but fantasy football is at odds with my beliefs about football, and I have a hard time reconciling the two things.

q. I couldn't talk myself into watching the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh game. Sorry, I know it was a key game, but a game with zero offensive touchdowns offends my sensibilities. (Just in case you were wondering why I had nothing on this game.) I'm sure it was ugly, and I feel fine, personally, having seen the highlights. When I walk into a smelly restroom, I get out as quick as possible. No need to hang around for half an hour, to have a good idea what happened there.

r. Jake Delhomme had a dangerously solid game on Sunday. It was the type of fool's gold performance that makes the regime think they are okay with him as their QB, and really, Jake has been having those games his whole career. The Panthers are suddenly 4-5, and back in the picture for a Wild Card spot, but I really believe that they need a better QB if they ever want to really compete for a championship.

s. Matt Ryan struggled mightily again on Sunday, and his two interceptions were a lot of the reason the Falcons lost the game. His first INT, in the second quarter, led to a TD which set the Falcons behind 21-10. The one he threw in the 4th quarter was converted 3 plays later into the TD which put the game away for Carolina.

Don't get me wrong; Ryan is mostly a good QB, but he has definite limitations, which I have highlighted in the past. He really struggles to beat tight coverage, and he's seen a lot of it lately.

t. Speaking of Hall of Fame-caliber guys who look washed up, old friend Jason Elam seems to have really lost his fastball. He's now 9 for 14, and he's only 3 for 6 between 30 and 39 yards. I would be surprised if he kicks after this season.

u. I always thought Beanie Wells was soft when he was at Ohio State, and he didn't do a lot early this season to change my mind. Lately, though, he's shown a lot better, and he's a big reason why the Cardinals are 6-3, and squarely in control of the NFC West. I've also been more impressed with the play of RT Levi Brown than ever before. He's been blowing some people off the ball in the running game.

v. The Chargers have been really tough in the scoring area lately. Of course, the Eagles helped them out by not even trying to run the ball down there. You have to make the defense think that they have to defend everything, or else they are at a distinct advantage. Only getting field goals of 18, 25, and 25 yards on visits deep into San Diego territory was the difference in that game. A defense can get shredded, as the Chargers did, and if they toughen up in the scoring area, they make up for it. A lot of Donovan McNabb's 450 yards were low-quality.

w. The Chargers sure are paying Darren Sproles a lot of money not to participate very much on offense. He's a lot like Reggie Bush, in being a highly-paid decoy who is never going to be much more than what he is.

x. Hey, Adam Schefter. From a money guy, "large" means thousand. When you say "two hundred fifty thousand large," that means $250 Million. He said that on Monday Night Countdown (Served by Applebee's... really). People misspeak all the time; I just wanted to make sure he knows what "large" means. This is coming from a helpful place.

y. I have to hand it to the Browns. They played really well on defense Monday night. Their offense is just so terrible, that it's no use. Those defensive players are playing for jobs next year, whether it be in Cleveland under a new regime, or elsewhere. Guys who show some pride and effort on bad teams will have some good film for their agents to shop them with. Guys who pack it in will be out of the league, like so many guys who played defense in Denver last season.

z. I actually like to listen to MNF nowadays, as I finish ST&NO every week. The main reason is that I actually think that both Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden are value-adding to listen to. The guys at Mickey Mouse-land spent so many years looking for a good third man, with such horrible results, and they've finally found a good 3-man booth. I actually don't like Mike Tirico, who is good at basketball, but bad at football play-by-play (much like Joe Buck is great with baseball, and abysmal with football).

5. I know the Bengals have always been willing to take on troubled players, but it's hard to imagine what they are thinking in reportedly bringing in Larry Johnson. As LJ was to be the key RB on the Shallow Thoughts team in the official MHR Fantasy League, I can tell you that his performance has been garbage this season. Some of his bad performance can certainly be attributed to bad offensive line play in Kansas City, but Johnson is clearly lacking quickness to the hole, and the leg drive he had in his prime. I just don't see what value the Bengals are going to get out of him.

I've reached midnight, and unfortunately, I need to call it a night. My company is in the process of being acquired, which has caused me to be much busier than normal at this time of the month, and I have an early morning meeting Tuesday. I hope you enjoy this edition of ST&NO, and have a great week. I'll see you all again next Tuesday, hopefully with time to give you my normal output.

Broncos Thoughts and Musings - Redskins Week

Emmett Smith — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:21:10 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

about 1 month ago: Denver Broncos' Andra Davis (54), D.J. Williams (55) and teammates look on from the bench in the final minute against the Pittsburgh Steelers in an NFL football game Monday, Nov. 9, 2009, in Denver. The Steelers won 28-10. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

Browse more photos »

Another week in the NFL, and the Broncos didn't win this time, either. The earth remains in orbit, and the stock market didn't crash (again). Once again, some of the fan base is breaking its ankles in their haste to jump back off the bandwagon. Many of them will climb over people's heads to jump back on next week, too. It's the way this season is going.

One nice thing about getting older is getting a longer perspective on things. Patience, like age, can be a useful thing. You tend to lose the idea that the immediate is as daunting as emotions want to paint. You can, if you're lucky, learn that experiencing more wins than losses is actually enjoyable. You lose some of the urge to demand constant perfection of the world. You realize that your will never manifest that yourself, and you recognize that trying to require it of those around you makes you - and them - miserable. It's a rigged game.

The Broncos look good to me. I'm aware that they have weaknesses, but they also just played two excellent teams, one on the road. They didn't win, and they're probably not in that league yet. But they won against San Diego on the road, as well as beating three division leaders in Dallas, New England and Cincinnati. If you rate their overall performance, they're exceeding nearly everyone's estimations. Don't waste too much time worrying and insisting that things are in peril. We've won 3 of every 4 games. Enjoy it.

Let's talk Broncos!

Hamilton and Concussions

I'd like to talk for a few moments about Ben Hamilton's situation. When he spent some time out with a major concussion, I immediately became concerned. I used to see mild to moderate brain trauma cases in my clinical days and even designed a new treatment format that seemed to be very effective, so I knew how troubling that injury can be. What's just as troubling is that the medical field has been incredibly slow to admit that each concussion is a serious life event.

Some players are never the same afterward, just as many non-players will have problems with concentration, thought and emotions throughout the rest of their lives. Brain injuries are serious stuff.

In poking around, I was temporarily soothed by learning that offensive lineman relatively rarely suffer concussions. What I didn't realize at the time was that this information was put out by the tools of the NFL, which has a huge investment in keeping people believing something that we have long known is nonsense - that NFL players don't have a provably higher rate of concussive dementia than the population at large. I don't know a doc personally who believes that crap, but it's still out there.

What they didn't tell us was that offensive lineman do have a lower rate of concussions. However - they have a significantly higher rate of non-concussive head blows. If you've had a major concussion in the past, that can leave you with issues of concentration, slower reflexes and a whole slew of other issues. Since Hamilton didn't have a major history of inducing penalties and has since returning, it's impossible to rule out the concern that he may be suffering from a chronic level of post-concussive syndrome. Is that my clinical diagnosis? Of course not - I've never met the man, much less done an intake workup on him. But it concerns me as one potential explanation of the situation, and I'm pretty sure from my own history that many of his docs aren't taking this as seriously as they should. Sometimes, we can be incredibly slow to admit that things your great-grandmother knew were true - like head injuries can last for a lifetime, whether our current testing shows it clearly or not - are really true.

I wish the man well. It's time to accept that he will probably not be with the Broncos next year and to move forward in whatever way is best. The middle of the O-line will be a major priority in the draft and/or free agency this upcoming year. Count on it.

Football 101: Timing Patterns

I read a lot of comments after the Steelers game that showed me one thing - we can all learn more about the game. Several of them dealt with plays in which the receivers weren't there to absorb the pass on a timing route, and a couple dealt with Knowshon Moreno. I thought it might help to clear the air.

When a timing route is called, the QB and receiver are essentially entering into a pact. The QB agrees to throw the ball to a space that the receiver hasn't reached. The receiver agrees to get there on time to make the catch. The O-line agrees (and this might also involve a running back and a tight end or two) to protect the QB until the throw can be made accurately. All of them have to do their jobs well for the pattern to be successful.

On the first INT by Orton, Moreno was picked by the NT. As a result, he didn't get there and the pass was to open space. One of the defenders moved in and made the pick, but you really can't blame Orton. All he can do is make the throw. The running back (in this case) has to fight through and get to the ball. That didn't happen.

Oddly, the same thing happened on another play, but the outcome was pretty much the same. He wasn't where he had to be and the pass was incomplete. The fans who bemoan that the pass was 'out of his reach' don't really understand the nature of a timing route. You cannot, from our viewpoint, know if that's an accurate statement or not. Might be - it happens. But all we really can know is that the receiver didn't get to where the ball went on time. Nothing more.

Every Kiss begins with Who?

First off: The winter/Xmas commercials are back, and just as tiresome as last year's. Of a particularly high irritation factor is that one about the connection between kisses and jewelry. Not in my life, brother.

In much younger days, many kisses began with Miller Lites, Bud Heavies, bottles of good wine and the occasional glass of well-aged mead. One remarkably memorable occasion began with Cuervo Gold, but that was a long time ago. If I had to pony up jewelry just to get kissed, I knew that I was dating the wrong lady.

The two greatest inventions of the last 100 years were the fast forward and the mute button. Trust me on this one. Danged commercials...

Jack Williams

When people are talking about Jack Williams' release, this may put things more clearly: Williams was beaten out last year by Josh Bell. That's the same Josh Bell who auditioned for the Cleveland Browns last week and didn't get the job. When you can't land on the Browns' defense, you're not exactly pushing the top ten in the league, you know? If McD believes that Ty Law can be a part of this thing, well, he said the same thing about Andra Davis, Ronald Fields and a few other folks. I like his batting average so far.

Some have claimed that the Williams example is different because he might play better in the future. Sure, that might happen, but it might happen more quickly if he receives a professional kick in the pants and finds out that he's not cutting it on the field. If he's not showing signs of improving, and that seems obvious from the situation, I can't question why the Broncos cut him loose. Look to CBs in the upcoming draft and/or free agency.

Sporting News Magazine

As part of the price of getting the War Room info, I also receive the site's magazine. Like all of them, some issues resonate, others don't. This week's was interesting on several levels.

First, they noted that it's a copycat league, which is not exactly hot news, but they did a nice job of identifying some trends that go into that. The first one listed was a supposed move to younger head coaches, and Josh McD was, appropriately, the poster boy for that blurb. I'm honestly not sure that it's an advantage to be younger or older, but it's an advantage to be smart as heck and to have a lifelong background in football. Kudos to the coach on the job he's done. SNM claimed in talking about the 3-4 trend that Dom Capers and then Dick LeBeau had 'originated' the 3-4, but then backtracked and said that many teams used it in the 70s and 80s, with Denver being the admitted role model. That Capers/LeBeau was the origin modern version is a fair statement.

The mag also listed its midseason awards, and several current Broncos were front and center. Elvis Dumervil trailed DEFENSIVE MVP Darren Sharper by only 4 of the 99 votes (the votes were taken among current, active players). Dumervil also won the BIGGEST SURPRISE PLAYER (17 votes) with Kyle Orton tied with Brett Favre for second at 13 votes apiece. Josh McD walked away with COACH OF THE YEAR although he'll be fighting Sean Payton for the full-year award.

Orton and Dumervil traded positions for the MOST UNDERRATED PLAYER, with Orton winning with 7 votes and Doom in second taking 4, tied with Drew Brees and Darren Sproles. That one surprised me - in what universe is Brees or Sproles anything other than a great player and teammate? The folks who underrated them have been kidding themselves, but that's free of charge as well as common and sometimes amusing.

Two players that Broncos fans are familiar with got high ratings on MOST OVERRATED and BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT. Shawne Merriman tied with Terrell Owens as the MOST OVERRATED (I don't know why they needed a color-change on the letters, bigger font, bold and caps to make the categories obvious, but that's how they did it) and Jay Cutler was just behind them. Cutler and Merriman also garnered votes as BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT. Cutler, it should be noted, did a nice job on Sunday against Arizona, but once again finds himself without a defense and currently doesn't have the receivers or O-line that he needs either. He also did well in completions - 29 of 47, 3 TDs and only one INT with 369 yards (sacked 3 times) - but once again did better at creating yardage than points, especially in the first half, when he was 20-29, 195 and got only 7 points.

What I laughed about with regard to those two categories was not that those two players were in each, but the bizarre logic behind it. Merriman is coming off a surgery that tends to take two seasons to recover from and folks are dunning him for not being at next year's level. Like him or hate him, that's pointless. The same goes for Cutler - I spent the offseason pointing out that Chicago didn't have the O-line or receivers to win consistently and other members dissected their D in detail (I was mostly down on the secondary, and haven't changed my tune). Consistency may be the hobgoblin of little minds, but it's also kind of useful in logic and those two categories were sheer CYA.

The Sporting News also put up its recommendations for this year's All Pro - Ryan Clady and Elvis Dumervil were first team. Congratulations to both!

Wildcat/Wild Horses

The same issue talked about the Wildcat and its variants, which was interesting. They list the Broncos as being one of the teams that doesn't use it, which is both true and false, depending on your specific definition. More interesting was the followup article on Saints coordinator Gregg Williams, who held Miami to running the Wildcat 14 times for 27 yards. For those who didn't see the game, the WC seems to be mostly limited to a run-play formation, which is a huge weakness. Based on that, Williams blitzed both corners and one safety whenever the WC was set up and drove MIA insane by doing so. The Wild Horses has a big advantage there.

The Wild Horses not only gives us a chance to peek at the defense, it's also set up to become a passing attack. Since the rest of the league is running out of the WC at least 80% of the time, this makes our attack unique. That's something that the Steelers found out on the first drive Monday night. The Broncos didn't really stay with it, but it showed why the formation is unique among the versions of the WC that are out there.

The Price of Arrogance

I had some pretty irritated reactions to my recent comment that the players on the Chargers who were arguing on the sidelines, acting out and taking their arguments to the media are guilty of 'arrogance'. It seemed that the term 'arrogance' irritated folks as much as having their players called out and I was inundated with comments that I was 'arrogant' for saying that they were arrogant (Very subtle and witty, folks. There were at least a half dozen people making that incredibly insightful weak pun).

It shouldn't surprise anyone that I called the players out on this, though. I've said the same thing about Broncos players such as Brandon Marshall when he did the same, not to mention Nate Webster, Jay Cutler and a half dozen others. Players who aren't about the team first are about themselves first, which I consider to be the definition of ego and arrogance and an invitation to disaster as a team. I understand that folks believe that if you're not a fan of a certain team, you shouldn't use that term, but it is what it is.

To put this in perspective, I was interested to note that Bill Belichick referenced the same problem recently. Jimmy Johnson had once made a comment that only a limited number of teams will beat you - the others will self-destruct each year. In response to that quote, Belichick said,

Jimmy probably said the same thing to you that he once said to me: "You’re really only competing with about 10 teams a year. If you just say out of the way, the other 20 teams will screw it up themselves. Whether it’s ownership or personnel or coaching or some combination of factors." Ego, internal struggle, something will happen to two-thirds of the teams, that was Jimmy’s theory. That leaves you with about 10 teams that you’re going to have to really battle with. Those teams have it together. They’re going to make good decisions and if you play bad football, they’re going to take advantage of it. They’re going to find some undrafted guy or some middle-round pick or some veteran free agent who is going to spark their team. Pittsburgh is always going to be there. Indianapolis is always going to be there. They may not win it, but they’ll be there. You’re going to have to beat them. Philadelphia is going to be there. Yeah, [quarterback Donovan] McNabb might get hurt one year and they might go 7-9, but they’re going to be there. You’re still battling them on every front.

This is exactly what I'm referring to when I get on certain teams or payers about their ego or their arrogance. If your players are acting out on the sidelines, if they're talking about their unhappiness in the papers, they're contributing to the opposing team's success, and that's just pointless. No matter what team it shows up in, I'm going to point out that it's a bad idea. Seriously, what's the argument in favor of what a good idea it is? This is what the best teams don't do.

A perfect example of this kind of arrogance from this week's games? Tommie Harris, Chicago Bears DT. Harris is a very good player with a very bad attitude, which got him benched for the Cleveland game. The Bears aren't stopping the pass and their pass rush has been lacking, but their run defense remained stout and he's a key element there. So, during a game in which the Bears later lost two more members of the secondary (SS Al Afalava and CB Charles Tillman) Harris got so self-involved that he threw a blatant sucker punch at a defenseless opposing player (OT Deuce Lutui) who was already on the ground, 64 lousy seconds into the game. That might cost the Bears his services for that game was well as (potentially) this coming Thursday as he sits out a suspension. Since Chicago is on the line, with two more losses perhaps costing them the playoffs for a third consecutive year, that action stands out as the boneheaded play of the season so far. The Johnson Principle - handing over games by self-centered actions - is in full swing.

When a Bronco does it, I'll call that player on it as well. But, just because I'm not rooting for a certain team doesn't make it any less arrogant or any less foolish when it happens. I really don't care if it's your team or not - it isn't a very bright thing to do. One thing that I like about this year's Broncos - each person that I've listened to has taken the loss on himself and talked about the team in a positive and supportive way. That's just the way it ought to be.

Final Thoughts - What's On the Line

In regards to the running game, LG, C, and RT are exposed at the moment. One is due to injury while the others will have many wondering, "what the hell happened"!?

Say hello to my fast...

by dcrespo7 on Nov 10, 2009 3:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

It's a good, valid, and ultimately important point. I don't really wonder what happened - Hamilton hasn't been the same since the injury, whether they are linked or not. Casey Wiegmann is losing to the only player he ever will again - Father Time. Tyler Polumbus would/will need time to get his own timing and communication down right. We like to believe that everyone can learn instantly, but it usually doesn't work that way, sad to say. Ryan Harris will be back, perhaps, which would help, and Chris Kuper has been a rock. Ryan Clady has some sophomore stuff going on, but he's fine. Polumbus will show us how vulnerable we are by the time Harris makes it back.

Let's be fair. There's no way that one team could have solved anything else in this little time. The changes in this team are tremendous, quick, and have generally been effective. When you have a major weakness get exposed during a season, sometimes you need a little time to fix it. It's this team's first season together, so it's not like they've had a decade to work out the kinks.

Washington might be the tonic that we need. Traveling is never easy - statistically, I've seen that it affects winning substantially, so this will not be considered a cakewalk. We need a decisive win, whatever the score. Still - that's a doable goal. I don't see losing the last two games as that big a deal - we've won a lot more than we've lost and both teams had tremendous games, a fact that seems to have escaped many fans' attention. We need to make some adaptations, and I look forward to seeing what they are.

Go Broncos!

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:30:23 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

about 1 month ago: Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, left, tries to elude the rush of Denver Broncos' Darrell Reid (95) and a second defender during the first quarter of an NFL football game Monday, Nov. 9, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

Happy Tuesday, friends. After being up late, and watching a hard-fought game go awry, I bet you're pretty bleary-eyed, and grumpy, but let's try to make this a good day. I don't want to think that the Broncos have fallen into losing habits here, and I really don't think that's the case.

Of course, those who speak, but don't know what they're talking about, will start screaming about how the Broncos have been exposed, and they're a fraud, and every other damn thing. A few persistent issues have emerged, but they can be corrected. If anything, losing back-to-back games against good teams can teach you a great deal about your own team.

Let's reflect on this, as I know the coaching staff is, and the players are. Next week, the Broncos face the Redskins, which presents a great opportunity to get back on the winning track. After that, San Diego comes to town. The Broncos still control the AFC West, make no mistake about that.

On the other side of the jump, we'll break it all down. Ready..... BEGIN!!!!

1. It's now midseason, and the Broncos are 6-2, and in first place by a game, and having beaten San Diego on the road. Think back to August, and if I told you that's where the Broncos would be, you'd be happy to take that deal, right? It's a little less great to win the first 6 and lose the last 2, but whatever.

I mentioned some issues, and I want to talk about them briefly. I think all are fixable in the second half of the season.

a. Ben Hamilton is getting to be pretty useless, and I think it's time to see what Seth Olsen has. Hamilton has gone from being above-average before his concussion-driven missed season, to average last season, to decidedly below-average this season. Every time the Ravens and Steelers needed to get pressure on Kyle Orton, they did it over Hamilton. Every other team in the NFL has seen that, and will try to replicate that strategy.

From former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah, during the game:

I don't know what Olsen can do yet, but he's definitely bigger and stouter than Hamilton. I have to think he can anchor better than what we've seen from #50. I am pretty sure Russ Hochstein isn't the answer, but I'd like to see what Olsen looks like.

b. The Broncos need better execution overall on offense. The scheme is fine, and the players are fine, they just need to make the plays that they have a chance to make. They have had some bad penalties, some poorly-timed drops, some slip-and-falls in the running game putting them off schedule, and lately, some bad throws. Plays like Brandon Stokley coming just short of a first down, and Hamilton getting called for a (really questionable) holding penalty on a converted 4th-and-5 are what has been hurting the Broncos offense. The coaches need to send the message that if the players who are playing don't execute, they'll find somebody who will.

c. Signing Mitch Berger was a big mistake. I think it's worth working out some other punters, but really, I liked Brett Kern. If somebody better than Berger is available, I think he should be brought in. Getting a good punter needs to be a high priority in the offseason, too.

d. Interestingly, short-yardage offense has improved during the two losses, as the Broncos have shown a willingness to throw some in those situations. It is still a concern going forward, though. Olsen may help here, if he is given a shot.

e. No-huddle offenses have been problematic for the Broncos the last two weeks. They limit their ability to disguise coverages and rush packages, and they also make it hard to substitute as much as the Broncos want to. Not every team is effective in the no-huddle, but just about every team the Broncos might see in the playoffs is. They need to figure out who their best base defensive group is against the no-huddle.

I think my underlying thought right now is that the Broncos probably aren't quite ready for the Super Bowl, but they hung with a team tonight who is a real championship contender. They beat New England a couple weeks ago, who is a real championship contender. They beat Dallas and Cincinnati, who at the least are good teams. The Broncos have a ways to go, but as first halves of the season go, you have to feel pretty good about theirs. It's not time to start anything over, or blow anything up. It's time to make a few adjustments, execute better, and keep working toward winning games.

2. Information from My Eyes, Steelers at Broncos.

a. Did I mention that I think Mitch Berger sucks? Nothing has particularly changed for me on that score. John Bena coined a new term last night, Brett Kern-backers. I liked Kern, but I don't think I am a Brett Kern-backer. I am a guy who wants a consistent good performance from the Broncos punter, whoever it is.

Philosophically, not a single player or coach on this team means more to me than the team itself. I don't care who is doing it, I just want it done. As much as I love John Elway, the team always came before him to me, too. Part of his greatness, though, was that he'd never make you separate him from the team.

b. It didn't get mentioned a lot, but Tyler Polumbus struggled at RT, especially in the second half of the game. LaMarr Woodley got a lot of pressure and forced a few key throwaways. He'll be okay against most teams, but this was a tough situation for him. Ryan Harris's absence was most definitely felt.

c. I liked the work of both Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal in this game. They consistently did a good job getting open and catching the ball. Marshall had the one drop, but it was a good effort for him overall.

d. I thought D.J. Williams had his worst game of the year, by far. He was taking bad angles all night, and didn't look like he had a prayer of getting off a lot of blocks. I'm admittedly not generally his biggest fan, but he's had the best year of his career in 2009. Monday night, not so much.

e. Wesley Woodyard played a lot more snaps than he's used to, and I thought he wore down in the second half of the game. The Steelers played a tremendous amount of 3 WR sets, which kept Andra Davis on the sideline, and Woodyard in the game.

f. Kyle Orton was actually not too bad for most of the game. He had 2 bad throws, and about 3 bad decisions (one of them was picked off). He was pretty sharp the rest of the night. He needs to cut out the bad decisions, but I was generally a lot happier with his performance tonight than I was against the Ravens. (I don't care about statistics, of course.) Nobody is saying they're thrilled with his ultimate performance, of course, but there's more nuance to the situation, than just looking at the stat sheet.

g. Rashard Mendenhall was the primary reason the Steelers won the game. He got going in the second half, and it forced the Broncos to be more aggressive in the box. I used to think very little of Mendenhall, but he has improved a lot. He runs with vastly better patience and body lean than he did even just a month ago.

h. The Steelers also have themselves a find with Mike Wallace. He's very dangerous for a 3rd WR. They don't do a lot of traditional slot-type stuff, and in nickel offense, if anything, Hines Ward is their slot guy. (I think making definitive distinctions between #1, #2, and #3 WRs is silly.) Wallace has great speed, and he showed good route-running skills Monday night.

i. I liked what I saw of Ty Law in his limited action. Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins both mostly struggled in the game, neither making a great impact. Champ ought to be embarassed by letting Ward jump over him in garbage time. He knows better than that. He also got beat in man-to-man coverage several times by Santonio Holmes. Andre' Goodman was good in this game, though, even beyond his interception.

j. The Broncos use of the "mush rush" was very good in the first half, and very bad for most of the second. Robert Ayers played a key role in containing Ben Roethlisberger when he as assigned that duty, and that's what he was doing when Kenny Peterson knocked the ball free.

k. The Broncos got hosed on the Gaffney challenge, and also on the Haggan fumble recovery. Don Carey has joined my list of bad referees. I like how a return team becomes an intercepting team. I can't believe that he's related to Mike Carey, who is excellent. And he's the older brother? Wow.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games:

a. I watched a lot of the Green Bay-Tampa Bay game Sunday, for a few reasons. I haven't seen much of the Bucs this year, and I wanted to look at Josh Freeman, who I liked a lot coming out of college. He looked like a rookie at times, but he showed a lot of positives too. I thought he looked poised and confident, and I am not that surprised. I remember when he beat Texas as a freshman, and commanded the game. (My buddy lost a grand on the game, and he called me frantically looking for NFL advice for the next day, to "get back even." It was a debacle. I don't give gambling advice anymore, because of that weekend.)

Anyway, Freeman looked like a star that day in 2006, and he looked like he may be one someday in the NFL on Sunday. I think Tampa did the right thing, giving him some time to learn from the sideline, but it has to be Freeman Time the rest of the season.

b. I loved Raheem Morris's line after getting his first victory as a head coach.

Statistics are for losers, and today, we're winners.

And then, there's Chicago Bears lover/reporter/enabler/apologist Brad Biggs of National Football Post, after his beloveds got blown out again.

That's positive news? The Bears got smoked, again, Brad. Their best player, who is supposed to always play well, performed close to expectations. It's only positive news if he is on your fantasy team, which is why I don't really like fantasy football. (Well, that and the dorktastic "experts' you have to tolerate on TV.)

Cutler played alright, but he didn't do anything to elevate the play of anybody else, as usual, and the interception he threw in the 4th quarter did kill the Bears' chances of coming back.

It's amazing how the Bears team has assumed the personality of the 2008 Broncos. There's a good chance they'll get blown away on defense, and Cutler is almost definitely going to need to carry the offense. In my business, we contract with companies to take over non-core operations. We call it a lift-and-shift. You terminate your employees who work in a call center, and we'll instantly hire them. They'll work for us, and you'll pay us a fee that is less than what you pay for this operation. Meanwhile, we'll optimize, and reduce the headcount, and correspondingly, the costs.

Everybody considered Cutler's acqusition to be a lift-and-shift. The Bears got a franchise QB. Imagine what he'll do on a team that plays good defense and runs the ball. Football is such a multi-variate system, it's really amazing.

c. I would really hate to be a Bears fan. They have no high draft picks this year, and suddenly a lot of roster holes to fill. They need 3 or 4 new starters on their offensive line, to begin with. Orlando Pace is done, Josh Beekman and Roberto Garza were never starting-caliber players in the NFL, and Olin Kreutz is getting close to done. I don't care for Chris Williams, either. He's looked passable at RT, but if he was worthy of his draft slot, he would have bumped Pace, because it's clear as day that he isn't good enough. You wouldn't use a #1 on an RTO (Right Tackle Only), unless it was Jeff Otah.

They could also use some WRs, some secondary players, and a pass rusher. We're not asking for much, right?

Chicago has a cash-poor ownership group, and the cold weather and their ugly uniforms don't tend to help draw free agents. (Yes, both things matter. It's part of the problem in Cleveland too.) I just don't know how you can bring in enough players there to improve for next season.

d. On Monday I read a lot of epitaphs about the Chicago defense, which didn't get into a lot of the "why" they're so bad. As I was explaining to a friend a few days ago, a defense has to have all 11 players working well together, in order for it to be sound and effective. Because defense is fundamentally a reactive mission, there are many inter-dependencies among the three levels, and communication, like-mindedness through practice, and discipline make all the difference. That sounds simple, and it really is.

First of all, you'd better either be good against the run with 7 in the box, or have a big-time safety who can move 12 yards from a cover-2 shell to the line of scrimmage really quickly. The Bears can't stop the run with 7, so you know they'll have 8 in the box. Then, there's the passing game. When a team can't rush the passer with 4 players, they need to blitz with numbers. When they blitz with numbers, it makes it hard to play soundly in zone coverage, so you mostly have to start playing man coverage. When you play a lot of man coverage, you'd better hope you have the athletes to cover the other team's athletes - and chances are, their #3 and #4 options are better than yours. That's a simple fact of it being harder to find players with coverage skills than it is to find guys who can run a route and catch a ball, when he knows where he is supposed to go.

So you can't stop the run, you can't get pressure with 4, you can't play zone, and you can't play man. All that's left is to guess at what the offense is going to do, and play for that. The obvious problem there is what happens when you guess wrong. You get exposed, and give up huge plays. That sounds a lot like the 2008 Broncos' defense, right?

To apply this to the Bears, they used to get pressure with their front 4, but Tommie Harris is having a bad season. He was a healthy scratch for the Cincinnati game, reportedly because of some attitude issues, and they got lambasted. Then, he got ejected over some extreme foolishness 1 minute into Sunday's game. The Bears again got crushed. Harris is among the best 3-technique DTs in the NFL, when his body and attitude are right.

With no Harris, Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye have struggled to get any pressure, so the Bears have blitzed, ineffectively. They have all these tall, slow CBs who can't do anything except play zone coverage, and they got shredded in man-to-man on Sunday, as they did against Cincinnati. If you decide to be a cover-2 team, you'd better play a lot of cover-2, because your personnel can't hold up playing man.

If Harris can manage to get his body and mind right, and have a dominant second half, he could personally bring a soundness back to the Bears that could send them on a 6-2ish run in the second half to finish 10-6. The more likely outcome is that he continues to sulk, the Bears continue to get gashed, and they finish 7-9 at best. And the Broncos have a nice draft pick. Thanks, guys :)

e. Funny story. My brother Chris (who did join MHR as Chris911, incidentally) and I were talking on the phone the other night, like we do sometimes.

Chris: You know, Jay Cutler has a losing record in games where he throws for over 300 yards.

Ted: You know, Jay Cutler has a losing record as a starting QB in the NFL.

Yessir. I love that draft pick more and more every day.

f. Remember the spring of 2008 when many wanted Denver to become Vanderbilt West? It hasn't worked out so well for Chicago. Earl Bennett's ceiling is to be an average starter, if he puts it all together. He can't get off bump coverage right now, whatsoever. He also runs bad routes and drops the ball a lot. In other words, everything he was supposed to do well, he doesn't. Yes, I know he had 7 catches for 93 yards Sunday, but the vast majority of it was in garbage time, against soft zone coverage. (And, yes, wise guys, I know, most of the game was garbage time.)

Chris Williams, I already discussed. He has definitely been a disappointment. This year, the Bears took D.J. Moore, a CB, who is somehow not good enough to beat out any of the pu pu platter of guys who take turns opposite Charles Tillman. He has been a gameday inactive all season, and is not even a special teams contributor.

I watched the Florida-Vanderbilt game Saturday night, and was reflecting on this. Vanderbilt has no hope in the SEC. They can't recruit talent that is nearly good enough to compete, and most of their guys have tended to underachieve in the NFL. They are on my list with Texas and Ohio State of schools whose players I am naturally suspicious of, although it's all for different reasons.

I wonder if Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Stanford, Duke, Rice,and Baylor ever thought about forming a football-only, high-SATs conference. Actually, this year, Vandy would be in the bottom half of that league, too.

g. Staying with the college theme for a minute, the best all-around QB I have seen this season at any school is Cincinnati's sophomore backup, Zach Collaros. He has completed 76% of his passes for 1,229 yards, with 10 TDs and 1 interception in the 3+ games he has appeared in. He has also rushed 43 times for 281 yards, and 4 TDs, while only being sacked 10 times.

Cincinnati's original starter, senior Tony Pike, is expected to start this week, although head coach Brian Kelly did cop to it being a tough decision. Pike is likely to be drafted on Day 1 next spring. Collaros is going to contend for the Heisman Trophy next season, and he'll be a high pick too, when he decides to leave school. He's the total package, with an above-average arm, very good poise, and outstanding accuracy and athleticism. The only knock on him is that he's 6 feet tall, but he has some definite Drew Brees-like qualities as a thrower. This is a 75-yard TD run against a South Florida team with lots of athletes. The guy is real.

h. A guy I really like on an otherwise not-great unit is Atlanta Guard Harvey Dahl. He has been getting very good pad level, and driving guys, in helping Michael Turner have his best two games of the season. I beat up Sam Baker for his pass protection last week, but he did well in the running game Sunday, too. The Redskins are normally solid against the run, but Atlanta gashed them repeatedly.

i. Michael Lombardi stole my thunder, which is an occasional hazard of writing for Tuesday mornings. (The) Other smart analysts see(s) the same things and beat(s) you to talking about them sometimes. Ray Lewis definitely looks like he's doing it more on guile and want-to than skill anymore. I respect his effort greatly, and sometimes he makes a huge play, like against the Chargers, but he's clearly hit his downside. Big up Lombardi, for consistently seeing what the reporters don't see. (By the way, it's weird and unnatural to see Lombardi stand with a mic and interview players and coaches for NFL Network. Stop the madness, and be an analyst, Mike. You're better than some locker jockey.)

j. I was pretty critical of Dallas' Mike Jenkins earlier in the season, and he deserved it. Lately, though, he's been playing fantastic football. He did a great job Sunday night, and was the largest part of the Dallas secondary's outstanding effort not to give up the big plays that Philly wins with every week.

k. The Eagles are reputed to be a West Coast team, but they are not that, and never have been since Mr. Game Management, Andy Reid, came to town. Donovan McNabb isn't a West Coast QB, who does really well with timing throws. The Eagles are a vertical, downfield team, and they finally have guys in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek, who can get down the field and make the plays they want to make.

l. By the way, everybody knows I like Tim Tebow, but McNabb is the guy who Tebow most reminds me of. They played in similar-ish option-heavy offenses in college, and they have very similar profiles as throwers coming into the NFL. Tebow's stats are down this year, mostly due to bad pass protection, but he's throwing the ball better than ever when he gets some time.

m. The Chargers might be back. I haven't seen their LBs look as good as they did on Sunday in two years. Some of that may be due to the Giants offensive line, though, which is good in the running game, and below-average in the passing game. All this stuff about them having the best line is hogwash. (I've actually seen Michael Lombardi say that this season.) They have a natural LG, David Diehl, playing LT, and he gets owned by good pass rushers.

n. Brandon Jacobs looks really slow to the hole this season. He was never quick, but he's a different player. I have to wonder if he is hurt. Of course, I am prejudiced against tall RBs, because, definitionally, it's easier to hit them, than it is the compact guys. It's fair to say Jacobs has never been a favorite of mine.

o. I'd like to say that ST&NO favorite Alex Smith has established himself as a clear-cut solution at QB for the 49ers, but the fact is, they've lost all three games which he has played in. Two of the three interceptions he threw on Sunday were off the hands of his own players, so I don't really put those on him, personally. On the positive side, that play he made for a TD pass at the end of the first half was an All-Pro caliber play, that not many QBs could make. He kept himself alive with his feet, and made a perfect throw on the run.

This is what I know about Smith. His biggest problem is that he struggles with the mechanics of drops from under center which are more than 3 steps. It's not natural to him, and his footwork is slow, like he is thinking about it. That got him sacked on A-gap blitzes two or three times Sunday.

Smith is much more comfortable from the shotgun, and I think I would go to a medium-gun alignment with him, that is often called the Pistol. It's run a bit at some colleges, notably Nevada, and the Chiefs used it with Tyler Thigpen last season. The QB lines up 3 yards behind the center, with the RB 3 yards behind the QB. It provides better directional evenness to your running game than lining up in a full shotgun with the RB to one side or the other of the QB.

Smith can do all the things you need your QB to do; it's just a matter of putting him in position to be successful. I'll be interested to watch this game on Thursday night, against Chicago, because he could have a huge game.

p. I did like what I saw of Vince Young, again. He has played like he's fine with being part of a conservative game plan, which is what he needs. The option stuff he was running with Chris Johnson was effective, and he did hit Justin Gage deep on a couple throws. One, in particular, used all of Gage's vertical. He was actually a starter on Missouri's basketball team in his college days.

q. The Titans are suddenly playing some defense again too, especially Michael Griffin at safety. I also was impressed with William Hayes, who has taken over at LDE for Jevon Kearse, who may have finally had it, at this point. The Titans are a threat to make noise as a spoiler in the second half of the season. The return of Cortland Finnegan has helped them a lot, too. He's not the greatest cover guy, but he's a hitter, and he is always close to the ball. He compares favorably to Asante Samuel in that way.

r. The Panthers just make me shake my head sometimes. They are almost completely back to their 12-4 level from last year lately, except for their QB play. They really erred by not getting one, but John Fox and Jake Delhomme are almost married. Delhomme is going to cost Fox his job, for his sentimentality.

Remember when the Chargers whacked Marty Schottenheimer coming off the 14-2 record? It was the right move. So would cutting ties with Delhomme have been, after last season. Of course, the Chargers blew the second part by hiring Norv Turner. The Panthers will get their chance to do something in the offseason, but they have no first-round pick. If San Francisco decides Alex Smith isn't their guy, he'd be perfect for a team like Carolina, who runs the ball and attacks downfield off of play action. Marc Bulger might be a possible fit too, as the Rams will almost certainly be drafting a QB this year. The Panthers will likely need to get a retread, though.

s. The Saints deserved to get beat on Sunday, but they managed to win anyway. That's something championship teams do, is win without their best stuff.

t. The Texans are really close to being a serious playoff contender, but a Chris Brown goal-line fumble and a Kris Brown missed field goal have basically cost them two games. People haven't noticed, but Matt Schaub is putting up Pro Bowl numbers in Houston. Old friend Gary Kubiak needs to get his team to execute better in key situations.

u. I said I wasn't going to pick the addict Jaguars again, but I did on Sunday, because the Chiefs are horrible. The addicts then proceeded to almost give the game away. Shocker! ST&NO favorite Reggie Nelson had a very good game for the Jags, and so did Brandon Marshall's best friend from college, Mike Sims-Walker.

v. Matt Cassel was the bright spot for the Chiefs, again, and he continues to do pretty well with very little help. I guarantee that the Chiefs don't regret trading for him, especially at the price they paid.

4. In honor of Veterans' Day, I wanted to blaze a different path by doing something apolitical and propaganda-free. It's Tangential Story Time, in ST&NO. Yay!!!

Most regular readers are at least generally aware that I spent 4 years in the United States Navy. I don't think I have ever mentioned that going to sea is basically my family business, though. My dad was in the Navy for 14 years, and then has worked as an executive for companies which supply the Navy for the last 20+ years. His brother recently retired as a long-time civilian mariner for the Navy, and his other brother was a Marine, who rode a Navy ship or two. My youngest brother is currently employed as a Naval civilian mariner, presently working for a ship stationed in Gaeta, Italy. There's lots of salt in my family.

So, I woke up early on Sucker-Free Saturday, and a headline popped into my RSS reader that grabbed my attention.

Navy ship built with WTC steel to go into service

I clicked the link to read the article, and saw something very interesting in the first sentence.

NEW YORK — The Navy is commissioning its newest battleship with a bow forged from steel that once held up the World Trade Center.

The Navy decommissioned its last four remaining Iowa-class Battleships in the early 1990s, and I didn't think that they had any plans to bring them back, despite some misgivings from parts of the Marine Corps that current Naval Gunfire Support programs wouldn't be sufficient for a Normandy-like shore landing.

A Battleship is a specific type of ship, like in the children's game of the same name. The Iowa class had wooden decks, and three turrets with three independent 50-caliber 16-inch guns each, for a total of 9 guns. The shells were 16 inches in diameter, and weighed 2,700 pounds each. (Modern Cruisers and Destroyers have one or two (mostly two) 5-inch, 54-caliber guns each, by comparison. Those shells are 5 inches in diameter, and weigh 70 pounds.) Each Iowa-class turret took a crew of 94 men to operate, and I actually served with a guy who was working in Turret #3 on the Iowa in 1989, when Turret #2 exploded and killed 47 men.

Battleships played a large part in the Pacific theater in World War II, and somewhat minor parts in Korea, Vietnam, and the first Persian Gulf War. The primary missions of Battleships were shore bombardment, and ship-to-ship combat. The advent of precision-guided munitions (like Harpoon missiles, for ship-to-ship combat), and the reality that 5-inch, 54-caliber guns are considered by the Navy to be sufficient for Naval Gunfire Support, largely made battleships unnecessary, and the last Battleships were decommissioned not long after World War II, with a few held in reserve status. Iowa, New Jersey, Wisconsin, and Missouri were each re-commissioned several times over the coming decades, with the Missouri being the last active battleship, being decommissioned for the last time in 1992. (The picture below is of the Iowa, shooting her guns to starboard.)

So, there's this new ship, called the USS New York, and the AP says it's a battleship. At first, I was skeptical, because I know that the Battleship mission is obsolete. Thinking about it, though, it is named after a state, like US battleships have historically been. I also know that the Bush Adminstration Pentagon had some meat-heads in high places of their procurement organization, who favored weapons systems with some badass factor to them, whether they were strictly necessary or not. But I would have heard about new Battleships, right? Hmmmm.

I called the guy who would know, my father Ed, who has appeared in ST&NO before, and I got my answer.

Ted: Hey, what do you know about this new ship, New York, that was partially built from World Trade Center steel?

Ed: Well, it's being commissioned this morning.

Ted: What kind of ship is it?

Ed: It's a piece-of-(bleep) LPD-17 class. A Gator Freighter. (Note: Gator Freighter is the ~~somewhat~~ very derisive name for Amphibious Navy ships which primarily carry Marines. Surface combatant guys, like me, don't think too much of Amphibs, or the people who ride them.)

Ted: Oh, OK. This AP reporter called it a battleship, and it's named after a state, which lends that some coincidental level of plausibility. I was skeptical, so I thought I'd ask somebody who knows.

Ed: <Scoffs> The media doesn't know what the hell they're talking about.

The media doesn't know what the hell they're talking about. Hmmm... Where have I heard that before?

5. What's New In Cleveland Update:

We have a great local brewery here called Great Lakes Brewing Company, that puts out this great stuff they call Christmas Ale every year, at this time. It tastes like cinnamon, but it's 7.5% alcohol by volume, so if you're like me, and you drink them like they're just expensive Bud Lights, they can really creep on you quickly.

So, I was at a the Cleveland State University bar called Becky's last Thursday, for my fraternity's monthly alumni happy hour. I was pleased to discover that they had Christmas Ale on tap, which I would later find out was running me $18 per pitcher, times 3 pitchers. Whatever. I am drinking some fine seasonal beer, and one of the guys says, "Hey, that's Mike Trivisonno right there, like 5 feet away."

Trivisonno is the local Radio Idiot, who I have disparaged on here before a few times, as being part of the Browns problems. I am not sure what he was doing at Becky's, of all places, but he was hanging out with some uglo-Americans, who may or may not have been related to him. He's holding court, and talking about the Browns, and how the city is cursed, and blah blah blah. (I hate it when people say "blah blah blah" in a conversation, but for some strange reason I just felt the strong need to type it there, like my ex-wife possessed my body momentarily, or something. Deal with it.)

It seems the work of the Radio Idiot is never finished. He bloviates even off the clock. I wonder if Rush Limbaugh does too.... That was a little deeper than a Shallow Thought. Focus.

OK, here's the deal. There's no such thing as curses. There's only confusing hope for a plan (hat tip to Michael Lombardi). That's what they do here, in all sports - even the Cavs, to some extent. (Let's face it: the Shaq acqusition is all about hope.)

Randy Lerner, by all accounts, is an OK guy, and he wants to win. He doesn't know anything about football, and I don't think he particularly wants to, either. He's actually a soccer guy, and he owns Aston Villa. He needs somebody to establish and run a program for him. It can't be a Head Coach, because he's too hands-off for that kind of arrangement. (That works fine with appropriately engaged owners like Robert Kraft, Bud Adams, and Pat Bowlen.)

He needs a Bill Parcells-type situation, which is why he is reportedly pursuing Mike Holmgren. I think Holmgren is going to end up saying he'd rather coach than head a front office, but it's a good idea to try. Whoever ends up being the head honcho is going to fire Eric Mangini, and start over from scratch, again. This is increasingly clear. The trick is going to be hiring the right honcho, for the first time since they came back into the NFL in 1999.

Ron Wolf and Ernie Accorsi aren't going to want the job, but if I were Lerner, I'd put on a full-court press to get one of them to help me find the right honcho. A guy I would make a run at is Jimmy Johnson, but only as a team president, not a coach. You hire him, tell him he only has to work 30 hours a week, some of it from Florida, and let him hire a focused GM, (maybe Chris Polian, or Marty Hurney if he is let go at Carolina?) and let them decide what to do with the coaching staff. Then, the chain of command is clear: Owner, to President, to GM, to Head Coach.

As a side note, I expect Mangini to struggle to find future work in coaching. His credibility in the NFL is shot at this point, and what college is going to hire a guy like that? Can you see him talking a kid into coming to play at State U? Absolutely not.

6. So, I know you've been wondering what a guy like me does on a Friday night. My gameplan changes every week, like any good team's (except the Colts); and this past Friday, my friend Ashley was looking for somebody to go with her to a happy hour event at the Cleveland Museum of Art. It sounded like fun, so I emailed her, and we went.

I'd like to tell you that I am a really cultured, artsy guy, but the truth is that I'm not. I'm kind of a rugged football, business, and politics guy. Somewhat embarassingly, it was the first time I had gone to the Museum in 7 1/2 years of living in Cleveland. Ashley is really smart, though, and I figured correctly that I would learn some stuff from her.

There was a Paul Gauguin exhibit, which was included in the price of admission. I looked up Gauguin on the interwebz, and learned that he was a contemporary of Vincent Van Gogh. Van Gogh's brother Theo was actually Gauguin's agent, and he got them to work together in 1888. They spent 9 weeks together at Van Gogh's famous Yellow House in Arles, and they quarreled constantly, because they saw the right way to paint very differently. (At the CMA, there were several examples, side-by-side, where both men painted the same thing, and they looked extremely different.) Both men had bouts of depression and suicidal tendencies. When Gauguin fled the tense situation after Van Gogh threatened him with a razor blade, Van Gogh freaked out, and went to a brothel, where he famously cut part of his ear off. They never saw each other again.

When I saw the news that the Chiefs cut Larry Johnson on Monday, the thought of his relationship with Todd Haley made me think of Gauguin and Van Gogh. Haley is a talented coach, and Johnson is a talented player. Both men have reputations for being difficult, though, and many (including me) were skeptical about the pairing when Haley was hired. Johnson's actions, around callng out Haley on Twitter and using gay slurs, were stupid. Really, it's not too different from cutting your ear off, on the foolishness scale.

Haley couldn't have Johnson play for him again, just as Gauguin couldn't return to Arles to work with Van Gogh. If you're betting on futures, take Haley's (like it would have been wise to take Gauguin.) Johnson is 30 and well-worn, old for a RB; Haley is 42, which is young for a Head Coach. Van Gogh died two years after the ear incident, while Gauguin had 13 more years, and a lot of productivity after that. Go with the guy who knew it was time to cut the cord, rather than the one who cut off his ear to spite his face.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. The worst thing about November is the jewelry commercials during football games. (Well, I guess I should be glad not to see Chevy commercials with any Mellencamp songs.) I have found the answer, friends, if you're into man-cavery like me.

If you have Sunday Ticket with SuperFan, the setup works like this. Watch games on a muted TV (or two, if you can manage it, like I do). Watch the Red Zone channel on a laptop, with SuperConnect, and listen to the sound on the laptop, preferably over some decent speakers. Red Zone has no commercials, so when they come on TV, you can just ignore the visual stimulus, and listen to the sounds of what's going on on the laptop screen. I spent the whole day Sunday with this, so I got to see a lot of football, without hearing incessantly about how you're no kind of man if you don't go to Jared, the Galleria of Jewelry, and that every kiss begins with Kay. Damn, it's great to be single. (This is Ourrrrrrr Country!!!!!)

Have a good week, and let's get ready for a Broncos victory in Washington on Sunday. No hysterics are necessary, let's just take some comfort in the fairly safe assumption that our coaching staff is driving the players to learn from and improve on their mistakes. See you next Tuesday!

Potent Quotables - The Post-Game Media Gathering

John Bena — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 09:33:46 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

about 1 month ago: Denver Broncos Brandon Marshall (15) tackles Pittsburgh Steelers' Troy Polamalu after Polamalu intercepted a pass by Kyle Orton in the fourth quarter of the NFL football game in Denver on Monday, Nov. 9, 2009. The Steelers won 28-10. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

Browse more photos »

DENVER BRONCOS HEAD COACH JOSH McDANIELS

General

"Let's start by giving credit to the Steelers. They are certainly a well-coached football team, [Pittsburgh Steelers Head Coach] Mike Tomlin certainly does a good job getting them prepared every week. We knew we would have to play 60 good minutes of football to compete, and had an opportunity to win there at the end. I felt like we did that for a half and then they ultimately took over the game there in the second half and we struggled to do much offensively, struggled to stop them defensively, and really they took over the game there."

On the conservative play calling with 2:47 left in the second quarter

"One of our goals in that situation is to not give it back to a team like Pittsburgh. We wanted to just go ahead and get a first down and take it to the two-minute warning, and then we would go ahead and go into the two-minute offense, which we tried to do and ended up with a negative [yardage] play that killed the drive. We accomplished one thing, we didn't give it back to them with before there was 11-seconds left. We started our two-minute offense with 1:30-1:45 left, which is plenty of time if you run the right way to get down the field and score some points. We would do the same thing again."

On competing against 2 strong defenses the past 2 games

"We certainly haven't run the ball very well the last two weeks, and we had trouble protecting the passer tonight. There is a lot of things that go into that, and that is not just an offensive line thing or a tight end thing, or a running back. All 11 guys on the field have to work together to do that, and we certainly have not done enough the last two weeks offensively to help our team win a lot of games. We are going to need to improve significantly in that area and continue to work hard and get better."

On Pittsburgh offensive adjustments after half

"I know they ran a little no-huddle deal which wasn't too fast in terms of their tempo. They tried to pick the tempo up somewhat doing that. They also ran the ball effectively as the game wore on, maybe more in the fourth-quarter than anything. They were trying to throw some short passes there in the third quarter, get some things going, get some momentum, get some rhythm. They accomplished that. We tried to come after them a few times. We got to them the one, right there in the first drive. Ultimately [Pittsburgh Steelers QB] Ben Roethlisberger did a nice job of getting the ball to people that needed it, and they stayed balanced, we didn't. We became one dimensional, they didn't. In a game like that that is close, 7-3, 10-7 in the third quarter you need to be able to have effective balance, we didn't and they did and I think that was a really big key to the game. "

On Denver Broncos T Tyler Polumbus

"I thought Tyler hung in there pretty good. He is playing against two really good football players. That was part of our game plan, some of that was for him, some of that was by design for another part of the scheme. We expect him to go in there and play well and sometimes he had help, and sometimes he didn't."

On how to achieve balance with the quarterback

"There's no shortcut to it. We have to work hard at getting ourselves to run the ball better and be more effective running the football and staying out of third and long, which we were in a lot today. That alone will allow us to stay balanced. And if we can maintain our balance with some of the play action passes that worked early in the game the first half I think had more merit to run later in the game but once you fall behind and you really become a one-dimensional offense that is a difficult task to try and overcome and do some of those things because the defense is not going to honor them. We have to go back to work on Wednesday, we've got to get the running game going. We've got a lot of things to do better though, it's not just the running game."

On P Mitch Berger

"We'll take a look at the film and see if there is anything. I know there were a couple of short punts there. I know he did good things tonight, too. Punted some directionally that we wanted directional punted. We'll take a look at everything tomorrow morning."

On QB Kyle Orton

"He started well, obviously. He did a lot of good things. I think once the game became a one-dimensional game we had a lot of players that I don't believe really played as well as we would've liked. It became much more of a passing game than we wanted this to become. I think we only ran the ball fourteen times so anytime you're going to put the game in the quarterbacks hands against a defense like that who does a great job of attacking protections, pressuring the middle of the pocket, which they did and seemingly on a consistent basis tonight you're going to have trouble regardless. We have to do a better job of making sure that we don't put that kind of pressure on our pass protection, on our quarterback by maintaining our balance and we didn't do a very good job of that tonight."

On Pittsburgh's defense

"They are an extremely well-coached football team and I think you're always going to see something different. This is the National Football League and ultimately they designed their pressures and they designed defenses and their disguises to try to combat what we're doing, most of which we have blocked before and seen before. They did a better job of executing it than we did on offense. Give them credit, they deserve it they played much better than we did for sixty minutes. We've got a lot of work to do."

BRONCOS QB KYLE ORTON

On his first interception of the game

"They ran a blitz where the nose tackle kind of peeled off and relayed to the halfback. As I was getting ready to throw it, the nose tackle kind of bumped (RB) Knowshon (Moreno) off the route, and it led to the pick."

On the running game being limited in the last two contests

"We would love to be balanced, but we feel like we have got a good pass game. If it comes to throwing the ball 40 times, we have won that way in the past, and we should be able to do it in the future."

On the offense's performance at Baltimore and against Pittsburgh

"We got beat the last two games, and you win and lose as a team. Certainly, that means the offense isn't doing their part, as well. We had a great week of practice. We really did. I think everybody came and was focused and dedicated. I am sure we will get the same amount of effort this week in practice. We lost to two good football teams. They beat us. (We will) move on and get ready for Washington."

On the offensive struggles at Baltimore and against Pittsburgh

"They are two good defenses, and certainly, when you play those guys, the margin for error is very small. You have got to get all 11 guys on the same page and execute for 10, 11 full plays in a row. We haven't been able to do that for one reason or the other, and we have got to get it back on track. As a quarterback, I put it on myself. It is my offense, and I will get it back on track."

On the locker room following tonight's loss to Pittsburgh

"Certainly, (we are) not (in) panic mode. We are in first place of the AFC West (and) lost to two good football teams that outplayed us for 60 minutes both times. I just think we responded very well throughout the week last week after a loss. (We) practiced very well (and) prepared very well. Unfortunately, it didn't turn out to a victory for us this week, but I just feel as long as we come back and prepare that way, get back to work (and) get back on track. We have got a big game at Washington, and it is going to be a big one for us. Hopefully, we will go out and play better and get a win."

BRONCOS OLB/DE ROBERT AYERS

On if the game plans of Baltimore and Pittsburgh were similar

"Not really, the things we saw them do on film were the same things they (Baltimore) did against us. They executed and made the plays when they needed to make them and that's the reason why they won."

On the defensive performance

"Yeah, we made some plays. They made some plays against us but the plays aren't what wins the game, it's the final score. They did a good job, they scored more points and did what they needed to do, that's all that matters. Big plays are big plays but at the end of the game who has the most points is what's most important."

On rebounding after consecutive losses

"We just can't listen to all this stuff, good teams recover from things like this. You bounce back from adversity and that is all you can do is come back on Wednesday and practice hard and correct our mistakes. We need to get better from there and get ready for Washington and that's all we can do."

BRONCOS WR BRANDON STOKLEY

On Pittsburgh defense

"They are a good defensive team. We were able to move the ball pretty good in the first half, we just didn't finish drives off and that's what you've got to do against a good team, put points on the board and we were never able to do that."

On making offensive adjustments

"Well, they're a good football team. They throw a lot of things at you and try to confuse you. Hats off to them, they did a good job tonight. But like I said, we've just got to finish drives off with touchdowns and put points on the board. We just weren't able to do that tonight."

On second half troubles

"We've played good teams and we didn't execute very well in the second halves of both games (Pittsburgh and Baltimore). That's what happens when you play good teams and you don't play very well."

BRONCOS DL KENNY PETERSON

On forcing a third quarter fumble

"Anytime you go out there, you try to get to the quarterback and make a play. It just happens that I read my guard pretty well and beat him on a play and had an opportunity at the ball."

On what went wrong after the forced fumble

"They just outplayed us. There is a reason why they are the defending Super Bowl champions. It's unfortunate that we couldn't capitalize on some of the plays that we made. Hats off to Pittsburgh, they played a good game."

On difficulties facing no huddle offenses

"Absolutely not, it's no problem. Like I said, they made plays and that's what the game is about, making plays and that's what they did. They beat us in all phases of the game."

WR JABAR GAFFNEY

On the loss

"We are disappointed with the two losses, but we are still in first place now. We had a chance to do some nice things out there tonight, but we still have a long season to go and we are not going to panic and try to get it fixed."

On offensive struggles

"It is different things every time, between poor execution and drops. Whatever the case is, we have to stop it. The defense has been playing good, but we've been having them on the field too much."

CB ANDRE GOODMAN

On the loss

"There is no panic here and we just have to get back to the drawing board and do what we have to do to make those proper adjustments. We have to get back to getting off the field on third down in the second half, which we did a good job of in the first six games."

On the defense

"Sixty minutes, we can play Fifty great minutes of defense but if we don't play for Sixty minutes then it really doesn't matter. We got a timely turnover in the red zone and took advantage of that, but they came back in the very next series and scored a touchdown with a lot of big plays, and the staple of our defense has been not giving up big plays. I think they did a great job in both the passing and running game, but that is the reason they are champs. They know how to make their adjustments in the game and if we are going to compete with the heavy weights then we have to learn how to make those adjustments"

On the loss

"It is not tough at all; it is just about doing our jobs. If you told us at the half way point we would be 6-2 most guys would be happy with that. It is just the way that these last two weeks have went, that is kind of disheartening. Both losses have come against the same division and the same type of team which are both playoff teams from last year."

ILB ANDRA DAVIS

On the Steelers halftime adjustments

"They made some really good adjustments and we really did not have an answer for them. We also did not execute what we were supposed to do. We are not going to get down; we are 6-2 and have a lot of ball to play. We are going to stay positive, and we are still in first place in our division and have 8 more games left. We are going to continue to encourage each other, and play hard for one another and get back on the winning track"

CB TY LAW

On matching up with WR Hines Ward

"That is what they brought me in for. I just had to do what I do and stick to what I know. I wasn't trying to get to fancy. I was just trying go out there and do the best that I can on such short notice. Overall I am pretty happy with how I did, but I think that I could have done better. I know I can do better, and of course it is a disappointing loss. Once I get a couple of games under my belt, I think I will be able to help the team."

Horse Tracks 11/7/09 - Broncos agree to terms w/Ty Law pending physical; LK Smith to start in place of McBean

Douglas A. Lee — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 15:30:34 -0000

Good Morning, MHR Friends! The imminent Ty Law signing is certainly interesting, especially the timing of it. Law must keep himself in incredible shape, because if the Broncos don't plan on suiting him up on Monday, then wouldn't they just sign him on Tuesday? Similarly, Law was signed on a Monday last year by the Jets and played for them versus the Patriots just three days later on a Thursday. The next question, of course, is whose roster spot does Law take? My guess would be Brandon Lloyd, who's been inactive every week thus far.

DB - Week 9 - Fri: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DB - Protecting Against The League’s Best - Chris Gentilviso
"After not participating in Thursday’s session, Josh Barrett (hamstring) was a limited participant. After being limited participants during Thursday’s session, David Bruton (groin) and Jack Williams (illness) were full participants on Friday. Peyton Hillis (not injury related) did not participate in Friday’s practice."

DPP - Veteran Ty Law signed to bolster Denver Broncos' secondary - Jeff Legwold

CSG - Another Ryan might be missing on line for Broncos - Frank Schwab
Le Kevin Smith will start in Ryan McBean's place on Monday.

DB - Balance In The Backfield - Chris Gentilviso
"If Buck is in space with anybody 1-on-1, linebacker, DB, whatever, I'm betting on Buck," said Andra Davis. "I've got that much confidence in him because he's big enough to run over a DB, but he's fast enough also to run by a DB. He's got the total package."

DPP - Nolan studied Steelers' 3-4 "D" to help Broncos - Jeff Legwold

LTC - Broncos aim for quick start - Brian Howell
""We haven’t really come to play the first half of a lot of games," tight end Tony Scheffler said."

Y! - Belichick Q&A: Every player has a trade price - Jason Cole
There's nothing Broncos-specific within this interview, but as it's a rare and insightful peek into the mind of Bill Belichick, it is an absolute must-read. Surely much of the wisdom he shares here is that which he's already imparted upon Josh McDaniels.

PFW - Broncos, Marshall: Good vibes may not last - Dan Parr
"While Marshall and the team have put the contract dispute in the background for the time being, it will reemerge sooner or later and nothing appears to have significantly changed between either party when it comes to that matter. Marshall wants a long-term deal and the Broncos don't need to give him one."

ESPN - Ron Jaworski: Denver Broncos must go long against Pittsburgh Steelers
"The Broncos simply have to try to manufacture a touchdown. They have to come out in a max-protect set, send two wide receivers down the field and see what happens. I don't see them going 80 yards in 12 plays too often against the Steelers."

LTC - Steelers’ Tomlin a good role model for McDaniels - Brian Howell

DB - Keeping Things In Perspective - Mike Rice
"Just because the Broncos lost one game doesn’t mean they’ll lose another two or three or four in a row. It also doesn’t mean a freefall is imminent."

DB - A Few Minutes With Mario Haggan - Broncos TV

DPP - Q&A: The importance of bye weeks in the NFL can be overrated - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Spotlight: Marshall clearly now No. 1 receiver - Lindsay Jones

CSG - Broncos reportedly agree to terms with cornerback Ty Law - Frank Schwab

AP - Broncos To Add Veteran Cornerback Ty Law - Pat Graham

FOX - Fearless Prediction: Steelers (5-2) at Broncos (6-1) - Sports Xchange
"PREDICTION: Steelers 24-17"

ESPN Insider - Broncos must slow Big Ben - Gary Horton
"If (Roethlisberger) is forced to more three- and five-step drops and fewer seven-step drops, it will lead to a lot of underneath routes -- that will allow the Broncos to keep everything in front of them, and the Steelers will struggle to put together multiple long drives against this Denver defense, which tackles well."

Steelers News

PPG - Steelers: No-huddle might be fun, but it does have its flaws - Gerry Dulac

PPG - Steelers: No word on Clark's status - Gerry Dulac

PTR - Woodley's play validates hype - John Harris

PTR - Starkey: Fast Willie's future clouded

PTR - Timing is right for Harrison, Steelers - Scott Brown

AFC West News

FH - Suspending Cable Good for Everyone, Including Him - Kevin Blackistone

ESPN - San Diego's Jackson is becoming a receiving star - Bill Williamson

SDUT - Emerging presence - Kevin Acee
Shawne Merriman feels disrespected...

KCS - Chiefs need Morgan to mature quickly, limit big plays - Adam Teicher

KCS - Controversial locker-room sign isn’t unique to Chiefs - Adam Teicher

NFL News

NFL - Friday Injury Reports

NFL - Colts lose Sanders, Jackson for season; Gonzalez has surgery

FH - John Harbaugh: Cowboys Are Everything That's Wrong With the NFL - Josh Alper

NFL Opinion

NFP - Goodell is put on the hot seat - Andrew Brandt

USAT - The Bell Tolls: Twitter a boon and a burden for savvy NFL'ers - Jarrett Bell

FOX - NFC East teams are struggling with inconsistency - Kevin Hench

Y! - 'Tis the season to run teams into the ground - Mike Silver

SI - Daniel Snyder running Washington Redskins into ground - S.L. Price

NFP - Diner morning news: Saints, Colts midseason favorites - Mike Lombardi

NFL - Mounting outrage, protests make this the year of the fan - Jason La Canfora

NFL Picks/Previews

ESPN - Sunday Countdown online: Your weekly NFL guide - Week 9

SI - NFL Week 9 Guide, including Texans-Colts, Cowboys-Eagles, more - Ross Tucker
"The Broncos can't afford to lose the swagger and faith they had as a result of winning their first six games...Whether or not Polamalu still has that freedom without his partner in crime (Ryan Clark) in the secondary could be a factor."

NYT - Week 9 N.F.L. Matchups - Mike Tanier

ESPN - Bill Simmons book tour and NFL picks Week 9
"I am not buying the whole "Baltimore proved how to stop Denver's offense" thing. At all. Guarantee Josh McDaniels studied what the Ravens did for 75 hours this week and made all the necessary adjustments. Beware of the altitude; beware of Elvis and Knowshon; and most of all, beware of the Neck Beard."

NFL - Five years after big trade, it's a big game for Manning, Rivers - Pat Kirwan
"Coming off a bye, the Steelers in Denver sounds like a win to me."

SN - NFL Week 9: Ten bold predictions - RealScouts
"That means you can expect a pass-heavy attack from Ben and the boys in Denver. That's not so bold, but this is ... it won't work."

CBS - Peek at the Week: Big D looking for big W in Philly - Clark Judge

FH - Week 9 NFL Picks: Not Much Belief in First-Place Broncos - Dave Goldberg
"Denver's 6-0 start this season wasn't a mirage and it's been especially strong at home where it beat Dallas and New England in close games in consecutive weeks."

FH - The Once-Over: Week 9 - Knox Barden

Poll

If Ty Law is signed today, who do you think he will replace on the Broncos' roster?

Peyton Hillis

4 votes

Brandon Lloyd

56 votes

Kenny McKinley

5 votes

None of the above

159 votes

224 votes | Poll has closed

MHR Chalk Talk - Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos MNF ('09, wk 8)

Steve Nichols — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:57:29 -0000

Folks, this is the game I've been waiting for all season. There is an awful lot to look at between these two teams, and from a purely Xs and Os standpoint, this game should be a feast for football lovers.

The Steelers are the defending SB champions. Their young coach had to start under the shadow of a big name. This is a team that has excellent players in just about every facet of the game, and they are used very well by the coach.

The Broncos have emerged from a few years wandering the wilderness, and have a near perfect record. Their young coach had to start out in the shadow of a big name. Excellent players? Check. Great coaching? Check.

And this game will be on Monday night. Does it get any better?

Read on....

Offensive Postion Analysis

I'm going to break this week down a little differently than what we're used to. Let's start with my comparison of the teams' units.

QB - PIT

Let's face it; Kyle Orton is for real. His 95.5 rating is due in big part to a lack of INTs. In 7 games, he has 1 INT thrown on a "hail Mary" pass to close out a half. Orton makes his living in Denver by throwing screens, hitches, and curls. He is willing to throw the ball away or to take a sack rather than throw an INT. This looks ugly to many fans, but it demonstrates a style of play that isn't what Denver fans are used to. Gone are the "gamble and scramble" days. Orton doesn't gamble; he picks his targets or throws off. Boring? Yes. Effective? It wins games.

But "Big Ben" is an established QB, with a lot of good football behind (and ahead) of him. He does it all. Ben Roethlisberger can throw and run, and has experience up to and including the Super Bowl. His rating is 102.6

Ben gets that rating by completing his passes. Where Orton is at a career best 63.6 completion percentage, Big Ben is at 70.4. Both QBs are good at what they do, and Orton has been terribly underrated. But I have to give Ben the advantage here.

WR - tie

Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward are two big names in the NFL football ranks. While the Steelers have always been a tough, smash mouth team, they are airing out the ball this year. Holmes and Ward have been a big part of the 5-2 start. Both players are not only key in the pass game, but can get physical and run block as well. These guys present a solid 1-2 punch.

Denver isn't lacking either. Brandon Marshall has estabalished himself as a real star this year. Changing his mind on being a hold out, and (it is to be hoped) having put the off field issues behind him, Marshall has proven that he is a physical receiver who can run you over. Against the Cowboys though, he proved he can zig and zag through a defense too. Opposite Marshall is Eddie Royal, who garnered 2 returns for TDs in a game. A legit #1 receiver, Royal has speed and cuts that make him a deadly threat if he catches the ball in full stride. Denver's hidden strength is depth at WR, with route specialist Jabar Gaffney and smart / physical Brandon Stokley equaly deadly at the slot position.

TE - DEN

This is a tougher call than many Denver fans might think. Obviously, Daniel Graham is a monster blocker with good hands, and Tony Scheffler is a receiver in a TEs tough body. And yes, Richard Quinn is a tough blocking rookie. Yes, I'll take Denver. But don't be fooled, because Pittsburgh is loaded too.

Heath Miller is an excellent TE, as is Matt Spaeth. David Johnson can be brought in for a 3-TE look, and (in fact) I would call PITT one of three teams capable of playing 3 TE sets on a consistent basis this year if they wanted to. (DEN and NE are the other two, based on history with the formation and other factors).

I give Denver a slight edge here.

RB - DEN

You have to love Correll Buckhalter. Anyone who averages 6 yards per carry this far into the season is a keeper. His 18 receptions aren't shabby either. Rookie Knowshon Moreno has been getting his feet wet, and owns a 3.9 average.

Rashard Mendenhall is a power running back who has better speed and elusiveness than most power runners. His 5.4 average is very, very good. PIT could run the ball a lot more with this kid if they wanted to. The only criticism I've heard is that he can fumble the ball. He has two fumbles (both for losses) this year, but that's better than Moreno (3 fumbles - all lost) and tied with Buckhalter (also two fumbles, but lost one).

OL - DEN

The most notable issue for Denver is the loss of RT Ryan Harris. One of the best RTs in the League, he'll be missed this week. While I think Tyler Polumbus can hold his own against most teams, I respect the Steeler's defense, and TE Daniel Graham will likely need to be limited to Pass blocking duty to offset the loss.

Denver's other strength is LT Ryan Clady, who is arguably one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL today, and still young. And while Ben Hamilton and Chris Kuper are both very good at what they do, Center Casey Wiegmann is the real anchor in the middle of the OL.

Denver's only weakness on the OL is the lack of power for short yardage. Denver seems to be asking the athletic and agile lineman to assist with power runs up the gut, something they aren't built for. As the season has worn on, Denver has gotten further from their zone blocking tradition. For what it is worth (and in the eyes of Denver's coaching staff, it isn't going to be worth anything), I think Denver needs to get back to the ZB. If Denver wants to transition into a typical run blocking scheme, then they should at least play to the current strength of the OL players. The ZB is always run as a short yardage play, with the very real possibilty that it will break open. Right now, we don't have the bodies to support dives and slams.

On the other hand, if PIT has a weakness, I think it is the OL. Big Ben has been sacked 20 times this year, and faces a terrific pass rush from Denver. I think the OL is improving, but they have a ways to go.

Offensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 23.9 (14th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 383 (6th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 276 (5th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 107 (19th)

Folks, we need to wake up and smell the coffee. We are not in the top ten in any single offensive category I've listed. There is no room for Orton bashing. It is clear that Orton is doing his job, and doing it well. A QB rating in the 90s means a good QB, and we've seen what our receivers can do. We are also over 100 yards per game rushing, which is the classic standard. But we have some things to address, and we need to move fast.

First, we need to fix our short yardage issues in the running game. Next, we need to start getting TDs. A 6-1 record is a good thing, and each of our players are doing a good job. But if we are going to make the playoffs, we will need to be able to put up more points.

I wrote in last weeks article that Denver is NOT a shoot out team. We have come back from poor 1st halfs all year, but we can't rack up points if the opposing team decides to make the game high tempo. It was a major key for Baltimore last week, and they executed. Like NE, Denver likes to accumulate small advantages and chip away at the other team, winning close if neccassary. But Denver needs to be more like NE in another respect; Denver needs to be able to run up scores when needed.

At this point in the season, Denver has a cushion to find out what the problems are (6-1). But we'll need to see some adjustments quickly. Coach McDaniels has proven that he can make adjustments during half time. Now we need to see if he can make adjustments over the course of a season, which is a completely different skill set for a coach.

PITT has the better QB, and the better passing game. PITT's only concern is the OL, but that is a big concern. I think PITT's running game could be better if they committed to the run, but they haven't needed to. If we were comparing offenses, I would give the advatage to PITT. They beat us in everything except running the ball. But folks, we don't compare the same units (off vs off). We compare offenses to defenses. Before we do that, let's look at the defenses so that we'll know what to compare.

Defensive Position Analysis

We have two great defenses lining up this week, and this is a real treat for fans of defense. I love the Iron Curtain almost as much as I love the Orange Crush. This year, both units are in elite form.

DL - PITT

Just how good is the PITT DL? Consider this. Aaron Smith goes down for the season. Losing a starting DE is a rough thing to deal with. Then his back-up goes down for this week (Travis Kirschke). Does PITT panic? Not at all. Ziggy Hood and Nick Eason step into the gap without missing a beat. Like Denver, PITT is ok with rotations on the line, and they have depth.

Denver (on the other hand) may not see Ryan McBean at LDE this week (LDG if you consider the DEnver defense to be a true 5-2). This is a bigger problem for Denver. Denver rotates the line too, but I wouldn't yet put the defensive line in PITT's league. I'm not saying that the Denver DL isn't good by any stretch. I'm just saying that we are great, but PITT is excellent.

OLBs - DEN

I don't care if we call them DEs or OLBs, but Denver is stacked at the position and can rotate all day long.

One guy to keep in place is Elvis Dumervil. With 10 sacks for the season, you can bet that PITT is scheming to stop him. Playing at RDE (ROLB), Doom is a sack master who uses his low center of gravity and long wingspan to out-judo his opponents in the bull rush, and uses speed and agility to get around blockers when rushed wide.

Denver can sprinkle in Mario Haggan, Darrell Reid, and Robert Ayers to stay fresh. (Watch for PITT to counter with the no-huddle. More on this later).

At ILB, Denver has Andra Davis, who has been rejuventated playing in Denver. Davis uses strength and leverage to get his way. To his right, D.J. Williams continues to be the anchor for the LBs. His skill set is based more on speed and agility, but he is as tough as nails and not a light LB. Even back-ups Spencer Larsen and Wesley Woodyard are dangerous when put on the field.

PITT also has an excellent LB corps. There is some concern about whether Lawrence Timmons (RILB) will be able to play on Monday. I expect him to show up, and to play 100%. Like talking about the DL, I may sound like I'm putting down a unit because I pick the other. Not so. Both teams have great DLs, and I gave the edge to PITT. Both teams have great LBs, but I'll give the edge to Denver.

CBs - DEN

Some folks will find fault with the PITT CBs. Not me. Ike Taylor is a good CB, and so is William Gay. Both are fundementaly sound, underrated, and a terrific tandem. (Watch Ike for blitzes. He is one of the best blitzing CBs in the League. If he doesn't get to the QB, he still typicaly causes hurry ups. He may be moved between left and right CB as well).

However, they are nothing near Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman. Bailey is going to the Hall of Fame some day, and Goodman is playing better ball in Denver than in Miami. In fact, he's doing it even though he's going to get a lot of throws his way when QBs avoid Bailey.

And while Jack Williams is ill, Denver does fine with rookie Alphonso Smith playing at nickle.

SAF - DEN

Both teams have excellent safeties. Denver has the player that revolutionized the safety position - Weapon X - Brian Dawkins. Older? Yes. Depleted? Not yet. Dawkins is tearing up the field for Denver by being in on most plays and keeping the defense fired up. He is the leadership this defense has been missing. Next to him, Renaldo Hill (like CB Goodman) has come to Denver and is playing better football. Together, these two safeties have been amazing. Their back-ups would be worth writing about, but many are injured (Josh Barett and David Bruton). Rookie Darcel McBath has the potential if he is needed.

But PITT has Troy Polamalu at Safety, and he's a beast. Don't let the shampoo comercials and the soft voice fool you. Troy is one of those safeties that can do it all - hit, tackle, intercept, disrupt, and cover. He is arguably one of the top five (if not number one) safeties in the League, along with Dawkins and Reed. He's coming off of an injury, but expected to play.

The big news this week is Ryan Clark at free safety. Because of a rare blood disorder, Clark should not be playing in Denver's altitude. My heart goes out to the guy, as there is talk he may not even be allowed to make the trip.

STs - DEN

You didn't think I'd give STs their own section did you? Of course not.

Ok, there may be reason to worry about Prater. Read more from MHR member OrangeandBlue27 here. And we just switched out punters, didn't we? But PITT has the kick and punt coverage that Denver must have had last year. PITT has given up 3 TD on STs in the last 3 weeks. Royal has been know to get two TDs on returns in one game.

Defensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 13.7 (2nd) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 266.7 (1st) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 180.6 (8th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 86.1 (3rd) 76.6 (1st)

I'm hearing a lot about the almighty Steelers defense this week. Let's give credit where credit is due. Pittsburgh has a great defense. But Denver beats Pittsburgh in every category but one, where Denver still manages a third best in the League ranking. Another stat to throw in - Denver allows 1/3 of opposing 3rd down conversions (33.3%), while PITT is allowing 43.3%.

In sum, both teams should stop the run this game. That much is clear. But how do the units match against there opposite numbers? What about the systems, the plays, and the head to head match ups?

~~~

Pre-Game Analysis

Strategic

Denver is 6-1. SIX AND ONE! They are at home on a Monday night, and except for one key injury, are all on the field. Pittsburgh is 5-2, including a close loss to CIN (a team Denver beat) and CHI. Both loses were close, so PITT is pretty darned close to being unbeaten themselves. I'll grant that. But 6 and 1 is nothing to sneeze at. Unless you are a sports writer (more on that in a moment). PITT may be missing some players, and others are coming off of injuries. Still, PITT had a bye week to rest and prepare.

I love the media. I really do (not). Some of my favorite things I've read this week include a ridiculous story about how accurate those Vegas guys are, knowing to pick against an undefeated Denver team and to go with Baltimore. Nice. Don't bother mentioning that Denver is 6-1, despite Vegas being wrong in six of those games (Denver was only favored one time). Another article (I won't mention John Clayton by name) buys into the mantra that Orton has a weak arm. Yet another claims that the Ravens and the Steelers have similar defenses. They're both physical, and both play a lot of 3-4, but the Ravens have been playing the 2 gap Fairbanks-Bullough system, while the Steelers have been playing the Lebeau Zone Blitz.

The minute Denver loses "one" game, the doubters came out (as predicted by many at MHR). All of a sudden, we are a team preparing to enter a death spiral. All of a sudden, we're not as good as we thought we were.

As of today, factoring in tie breaks, Denver is the number two team behind unbeaten Indianapolis in the AFC. In the NFL, Denver ranks as the fourth best team (Saints and Vikings are 2nd and 3rd).

Not enough for you? Denver has beaten the 5th, 6th, and 7th best teams in the NFL (CIN, DAL, and NE). One game is not the end of this team. In fact, a loss at this point in the season (while not prefered) gives the team better film to study. There isn't as much to find on film from a win, but a loss provides much room for analysis and growth for a good team. Rather the loss now than in the playoffs.

Let's not sell PITT short. As I mentioned earlier, their only two losses were close ones, and this team has star power.

But certainly don't sell Denver short. Denver has a 6-1 record against teams with an average winning percentage of .510 (opposing teams combined for 26-25 record). That beats PITT's opponents, who have a losing average. Those opponents are at .451 (a combined 23-28). More amazing is to factor in that Denver's opponents have a better record than PITT's, despite the fact that each of Denver's opponents had to play "Denver", who gave 6/7ths of those teams a loss (compared to PITT, who handed out losses to 5/7ths).

In other words, we have two very, very good teams on the field. A lot of folks are nervous because Denver has lost one game. But over the course of this season, Denver has played better ball and has a better record and stats to show for it.

Let's revisit the comparisons between rankings, but look at offensive vs defensive match-ups.

Denver Offense PITT Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 76.6 (1st)

On offense, we see that PITT beats us relatively in every category but one (the pass game), where we rank even. Now let's look at how PITT does on offense.

PITT Offense Denver Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 23.9 (14th) 13.7 (2nd)

Yards avg per game - 383 (6th) 266.7 (1st)

Pass avg per game - 276 (5th) 180.6 (8th)

Rush avg per game - 107 (19th) 86.1 (3rd)

Here, we beat PITT in every category but one. Again, it is the pass game that is different. Here PITT beats us. So relative to how each team has played so far (as measured in rankings), DEN wins in 6 stats, PITT wins in 7, and the teams tie in another.

The margin in the difference in rankings over all favor PITT by 29 "ranking points" when we have the ball, and favor Denver by 20 When PITT has the ball. On the other hand, Denver's defense is 32 points better than PITT's defense, while PITT's Offense is only 17 pts better than Denver's.

The key is the actual points on the score board at the end of the game, and this is where efficieny comes in. Remember the stat I mentioned about third down conversions? It comes into play when we look at teams moving the ball down the field. Even though PITT averages about two more minutes in time of possession, Denver runs the ball better, even though both teams are near each other in terms of rushing defense. While PITT is likely to stop Denver on the ground, they'll have a harder time stopping the Denver running game relative to Denver stopping PITT's 19th ranked run game. The pass offenses and defenses are very close for both teams, and is a wash.

Tactical

I see three approaches for the Steelers on offense this week.

No huddle scheme
Run heavy scheme
Passing attack

Those are over-simplifications, but they'll make the points easier to understand.

First, the no huddle looks good on paper. Every one from Clayton to Big Ben are advocating it for this week. I see some problems with this approach. First, this game isn't in Baltimore, it is in the Mile High city. Assuming that Denver is conditioned to the altitude (metabolic levels, etc), does PITT really want to level the playing field between the defense and offense in terms of endurance? The way to beat a defense at altitude is to win time of possession by keeping the defense on the field. You do that with no-huddle, but the higher tempo leads to a change of possesion quicker (whether from a turnover, score, or inability to convert a down). Why not just keep the ball, and move down the field consistently? Besides, Denver has almost certainly devoted a lot of practice hours to adjusting for the no huddle in light of last week's game.

The second approach is to run the ball more. I this approach much more. PITT hasn't been winning games on the ground, they've done it in the air. Folks might argue that the low ranking in average run yards is because of a lack of commitment to the run, and this is true. But against the third best run defense in the League, why not give the ball to your star QB, or at least strike a balance?

The passing attack may be the way to go. The best players on the offense are arguably at QB and WR, and this has been working for PITT. The question is, can the OL protect Ben? Denver has a great sack scheme, and PITT'S OL isn't the best right now. Ben can take hits, and can throw on the run. He's a big, fast player in the mold of an Elway.

For Denver, they need to throw the ball. The run has been under utiized by PITT, but despite Denver's decent individual stats, Denver just isn't tearing teams apart with the run game. Together, the run and the pass have moved the ball down the field for Denver, but not created a lot of points in quick strikes. This will beat most teams, but won't win shoot outs. In fact, if Denver hope to beat INDY in Dec, they had better learn how to put up points on every long drive OR put up points quickly on most drives.

In a surprise twist, I wonder if McDaniels feels that Orton can handle a no huddle or two? This would be the game to bring it out. You can beat a physical defense at altitude with a good no huddle.

Denver needs to keep their TEs in to block this game. PITT's zone blitz is formidable, and two TEs are the standard counter to a 3-4. Graham (TE) in particular will be needed to assist the right side of the line in pass blocking with the Harris missing at RT. I don't expect many passes to TEs in this game. If Orton uses a safety valve, it will likely be a running back.

Expect bump and run from the Steeler CBs, but coverage to be over the top. Expect the safeties of PITT to play the pass more than the run in deep zone. LBs and DLs will take turns in zones and rushing the passer in the typical zone blitz manner. I expect the PITT defense to do a good job shutting down the run.

Expect the Denver defense to play off or on coverage, but not tight. The Denver CBs will play underneath in most match-ups. While one Denver ILB zones the middle, mans the RB, or blitzes, the other ILB will take one of the other two assignments. The OLBs (DEs) will rush or zone.

PITT will vary their offense, presenting 2 TE sets, I forms, and 3 receiver sets. I don't expect Denver to use a FB, so expect 2 TE or 3 WR sets.

Keys to the Game

Denver

Denver lost last week when they let the Ravens get after Orton. Denver's OL must hold.
Denver lost last week when they let the game turn into a shoot out. They probably can't run against the Ravens very well, but too many passes may lead to a shoot out. Denver needs to complete a lot of intermediate and short passes, get into a rhythm, and move the ball consistently and slowly (this will also tire the PITT defense).
Ben is a terrific QB. But he makes mistakes. If the pass rush can reach Ben (and it should against the Steeler's OL), an elite secondary has the chance to make key INTs. Rush Ben, and don't drop those INTs.

PITT

Win time of possesion. If you want to win in the altitude (something PITT hasn't done much of), you need to keep your defense off of the field. Try the no-huddle if you want to, but keep the oxygen handy for your guys on both sides of the ball.
Challenge with the run game. If Mendenhall can match his terrific YPC average, run down the Broncos. At worst, it doesn't work and you still have a great passing game. But try the run out.
Don't kick to Royal. You're better off kicking out of bounds on punts.

This game could go either way. For every stat that favors one team, another stat counters it. PITT is a more physical team, and a more balanced team. Denver has the better defense. Perhaps the Baltimore game has helped to prepare Denver for the Steelers.

This will be a great Monday Night Football encounter. I like Denver at home, with the better record against a tougher schedule in the first 8 weeks (7 games). For that reason, I don't understand PITT getting 3 points in Vegas. Still, PITT is no joke, and I'm not fully confident with picking Denver. The reason? While we have a SB caliber defense, our offense is "just" doing well. It needs to play much better than that if we are going to beat the many types of teams we'll be playing this year. We rank in the bottom half of the League in passing yards per game and points. The points stat really stands out.

Good teams lose ball games, but they lose close (as PITT has). Yes, we had one loss, but it wasn't close. An inability to dominate is the problem. Good teams "find a way to win". That's what we've been doing. Great teams dominate, and we have yet to do that.

This week, I'm confident that the Steelers come in with a good game plan and players ready to execute. I know the Denver players will be fired up (or Dawkins will be kicking butts in the locker room). What I'm looking forward to seeing is how McDaniels adjusts to a loss. I've already bought in to the McDaniels way, and I'm hoping that he's on top of this aspect of coaching too.

Denver wins (fingers crossed and nervous as Hell).

Poll

Do you like the new look of MHR's front page?

Yes! Much Better

116 votes

No! Give us our colors back

162 votes

No opinion

105 votes

383 votes | Poll has closed