SB Nation - Ted Washington

Bill Swerski's Superfans Predict the 2012 Season (Part 1)

Superfans — Wed, 01 Aug 2012 18:00:05 -0000

Bob - Welcome one and all, to what has become da most anticipated segment on Windy City Gridiron. Bob Swerski's Superfans Predict da 2012 Chicago Bears Season.
Pat - Far be it from me to point out the obvious, but the name of fine show has, and will always be Bill Swerski's Superfans Predict da 2012 Bears Season. And you my friend are not Bill.
Bob - No I'm not my brudder Bill, but I'm here, and he's AWOL. So if you don't mind I'll be the one steering the Orange colored ship, with Navy Blue racing stripes down the side of said ship, and a Ditka Hot Sauce powered motor, with an airbrushed picture of the Mt. Rushmore of Chicago Bears football; Sweetness, Papa Bear, Da Coach, and Chris Zorich; painted on da fore of said ship, and da cleverly witted name, "Bearing Down", scripted across the aft.
Carl - Wait a minute... Just wait a minute... Did you say your boats name is "Bearing Down"? My boat's name is "Bearing Down"!
Pat - I have a Confession to make. My boat has the same moniker. Great minds really do think alike.
Todd - Yes they do. What's an aft?

Bob - Since my brudder Bill doesn't have time for da show this year...
Pat - (Interrupting) Wait a minute there Bob, just where is Bill?
Bob - Let's just say that he and da Misses had a disagreement over some green and gold bath towels they received as a gift from his In-Laws. One thing led to another, his father in law allegedly received the mother of all towel snaps, there may or may not have been involvement from da authorities, and dat anklet Bill now wears isn't exactly a fashion choice.
Todd - I bought some green and gold washcloths from a garage sale once.
Carl - Blasphemer!!!
Todd - To wipe my ass with!
Pat - Well played.
Bob - Gentlemen, might we get on with our show?
Pat - We might.
Carl - Agreed.
Todd - I mean I really got in there and mucked up those washcloths.
Bob - Let us get back on point my friends. I'm your host Bob Swerski, and along side me are my fellow Superfans Pat Arnold, Carl Wollarski, and Todd O'Conner. And today we'll be bring you the prediction for the twenty twelve Chicago Bears season. Hoist your mugs fellas to... Da Bears!
All - Da Bears!!!

Bob - Allow me to paint a picture to erase the image of Todd and his rear wiping adventure out of our minds. Home opener, Soldier Field, and our beloved Bears hosting the Indianapolis Colts and their rookie number 1 draft pick Andrew Luck.
Pat - I think this will be Lucks lucky day, he'll be able to make his NFL debut and announce his retirement from football all in the same afternoon.
Todd - With a noon kickoff in Chicago I'll predict 12:03pm as the time Luck pisses his pants for the first time since he was a wee lad.
Carl - I concur, and I also see a very big day for new Bears wide-out Brandon Marshall. I'll set the over/under for week 1 receptions at 15.
Bob - Easy der Carl, with a line like dat you'll be paying out on da over. I'd bump it up to 20.
Carl - Agreed. 20 it is. And da Bears win 49-3
All - Da Bears!!!

Bob - Week 2 and it feels good to get the trip to Green Bay outa da way quickly with a Thursday nighter. The only thing worse than a trip to Wisconsin in September is a trip to Wisconsin in January.
Todd - Funny story here, did you know I'm banned from da state of Wisconsin?
Bob - I can't say I'm surprised, but how did you manage to get banned from Cheeseland.
Todd - Let's just say a certain Governor wasn't too pleased with what I did with those green and gold washcloths.
Pat - That's nasty... well done my friend.... but you're nasty.
Carl - I predict Julius Peppers will Discount Double Check Aaron Rodgers into the (doing his best John Facenda impression) 'Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field'...
Pat - Excuse me my friend, but perhaps you weren't paying attention, this game is in September, and I highly doubt a frozen playing surface would be in da cards.
Carl - What I meant was Julius Peppers would fly into Aaron Rodgers so hard and fast that the ensuing force would propel them through the air, flying like Superman and circling the globe numerous times, until at which time da planet Earth will begin to rotate on it's axis in the opposite direction, and time itself would begin to rewind, until Peppers and Rodgers landed back on the 'Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field' on January 2nd of 2011. And at dat time, present Peppers would line up opposite past Peppers and our beloved Bears would go on to win that regular season finale, thus knocking the Packers outa da playoffs, and Da Bears would go on to roll through the post season and dismantle those Pittsburgh Steelers in da Super Bowl by a score of 34-0.
Bob - That my friend is the Mother of all saves...
All - Da Bears!

Bob - Week 3 and St. Louis comes to Chicago. What say yous fellas?
Pat - Seriously the Rams? The only way the Rams could even score a point is if it was the Greatest Show On Turf Rams team.
Carl - And Marshall Faulk isn't walking through that door!
Pat - Kurt Warner ain't walking through that Door!
Carl - Isaac Bruce ain't walking through that door!
Pat - Mike Martz isn't walking through that door!
Todd - But if he did I'd punch him in da throat.
All - Da Throat!

Bob - So far there's a bit of violence being spewed from our panel today... and I like it. But on to week 4 and a Monday night contest as Da Bears travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys.
Todd - Actually it's not in Dallas, it's in Arlington, Texas.
Bob - Someone been giving Todd ginkgo biloba sausage again?
Todd - I didn't know Rocky Balboa made sausage.
Bob - Gink - go - Bil - oba! Oh never mind...
Todd - I just know it's in Arlington because I'm banned from Arlington too.
Carl - What'd you do in Arlington?
Todd - I threw up on a Texas Ranger, and I'm not talking one of the baseball variety.
Pat - I was there, and it was ugly. After he vomited on the Ranger, he told him that Chuck Norris was a Pansie, and that Mike Ditka was twice da man that Walker, Texas Ranger was.
All - Da Coach!

Bob - It's time for da week 5 match up between our Monsters of the Midway and the Jags of Jacksonville.
Pat - Me and Mrs. Arnold were fortunate enough to acquire some tickets to this game and we'll be weekending in Jacksonville. Friday and Saturday we'll be taking in the fine seafood dining and doing a little boutique shopping. Then on Sunday we'll have 50 yard line tickets to witness da Bears roll to a 69-0 shut out victory, highlighted by 3 Henry Melton 1 yard touchdown plunges.
Carl - Wow, 69-0, you sure seem awfully sure of yourself.
Pat - Number one, I've never witnessed a Bears defeat in person, and seeing as how my tickets will place my tuchis squarely in what ever they are calling the Jacksonville stadium these days, I will be be "in person". And number two, our beloved Bears are playing the Jags. And have I mentioned the Jags really suck.
Pat - I'd like to pile on to your prediction. I believe this is da first time we've played the Jags since the tweet heard round Chicago, where MJD...
Todd - (interrupting) If those really are his initials!
Pat - I believe they are.
Bob - Yep, Maurice Jones Drew, would translate to MJD.
Carl - I concur, it is MJD.
Pat - As I was saying, that uncalled for Tweet he sent out a couple years ago taking at shot at our quarterback; The middle finger flipping, F-Bomb dropping, rocket arm himself, Midway Jay Cutler, was undoubtedly uncalled for. And I know for a fact, that the real reason he's currently holding out isn't about money...
Todd - (interrupting) It's always about da money!
Pat - It's NOT about da money, it's because he's hoping his hold out drags along all the way past this particular week 5 match up, and he can avoid his long deserved ass whipping at da hands of our monstrous Defense.
All - Da Bears!!!

Bob - Well done fellas... Next up is week six, and dat is da Bears bye week, and in honor of the bye I'd like to take a second and say a little something to Bill who I know is tuning in at home. Bill, your little brudder misses you (Bob starts to get a little weepy) and us Superfans raise a mug to you. (sniffle sniffle) I promised myself I wouldn't get emotional ... See you in 30 days my friend!
Pat - We all do miss you Bill, try and avoid having another grabber by keeping yourself active whilst on house arrest.

Bob - And that takes us to the 2nd Monday nighter for our beloved Bears, and a Soldier Field match-up against the criminally inept Lions.
Carl - At the rate the Lions are being locked up, will they even have enough players to field a team in week 7?
Pat - Highly unlikely my friend, so I predict Da Bears will send only their practice squad to Chicago to face Detroit, thus giving their regulars an extra week off, leaving the final score a mere 27-14 in favor of Da Bears.
All - Da Bears!

Bob - Carolina Panthers are coming to town next and I don't see how this game can even be within 4 scores.
Pat - Matt Forte will have his customary big game against them, to the tune of 2 hundo wit 4 tuddys.
Todd - My favorite Teddy of all time is Ted Washington.
Pat - Tuddy? Tuddy as in touchdown. You know, a tuddy?
Todd - What are you talking about?
Pat - 48-5 Bears win!
All - Da Bears!

Bob - The next two weeks opponents bring out an interesting conundrum. I'm personally perplexed by the back to back weeks of facing the Tennessee Titans who used to be the Houston Oilers, followed up by the Houston Texans who took their moniker from the Dallas Texans, who played one lone NFL season back in 1952. All the town swapping just brings me to a dark place.
Carl - These things happen, teams move. They change nicknames.
Bob - Yes, I know, but I don't like it. Houston to Tennessee, then a new Houston is formed, and to top it off they take the name of the team that I hate with nearly as much unbridled passion at the Green Bay Packers.
Pat - This sounds serious, you despise the Texans nearly as much as Green Bay? Please Explain.
Bob - Buckle down my friends, this is a story that I've never told, but now is a good a time as any for me to get this off my chest. The reason I have a deep rooted hatred for the name 'Texans' is because of something that happened when I was a small Superfan.
Todd - Is this gonna be long, I have to pee.
Bob - The year 1952, the place Akron, Ohio, the day Thanksgiving Day, and the game, our Beloved Chicago Bears facing the winless Dallas Texans. This was the first game I ever attended live in person and my pops took me to see this particular game to ensure my first experience with our fine team was a victory.
Todd - I'm confused.
Pat - While I'm not surprised by Todd's befuddlement, I am a bit confused myself, why were the Texans playing in Ohio?
Bob - The Texans were so bad, and in such financial troubles, that they moved the franchise to Pennsylvania for the last few games of the season.
Carl - Wait, why were they in Ohio then?
Bob - If you gentlemen would all keep quiet, I'll explain. They were moved to Hersey, PA, but they kept the name Dallas Texans, and they played this particular home game in Akron. It makes perfect sense... You see da Bears were struggling through this '52 season, so pops knew the short trip to Akron would Christen my Bearsdom with a victory. Chicago Bears legendary head coach Papa Bear Halas was so confident our boys would slay the pathetic Texans that day that he started his second string players. The Bears lost 27-23 and I've hated the Texans ever since.
Carl - That's a tough one my friend.
Bob - It's worse, Da Swerski household didn't celebrate Thanksgiving again until 1980.
Bill - (Bill walks into the room) And that's also why we send Dave Williams a Christmas Card every year.
All - BILL!

Bill - My friends, this is a great time for us to take a break, so we all might catch our breath. We'll see you again next time when we finish making our predictions for da 2012 Chicago Bears season.
Todd - When did Bill get here?

Editor: How did Bill beat the house arrest? Do the Superfans realize they they haven't predicted all the games so far? Will Bill right the ship and give us some actual predictions in Part 2? The answers to these questions and more, can be found right here in Part 2!

Web Rumblings: Buffalo Bills News, 3/30

MattRichWarren — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 10:00:09 -0000

Todd McShay's AFC East mock draft - AFC East Blog - ESPN
"I'm still a little nervous about that, but I do think [Michael] Floyd is a good fit for Buffalo's offense. The team addressed its pass rush in a major way this offseason. I think the Bills still have bigger needs, such as left tackle, but getting a top receiver wouldn't be a bad move to help quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick," says James Walker.

2012 SB Nation NFL Mock Draft: Round 1, Pick 10 - Mocking The Draft
The Bills are raking in a solid "D" grade with this selection.

Buffalo Bills draw more praise | Democrat and Chronicle
Gary Horton of Scouts Inc., rates Buffalo’s new defensive line the No. 1 "best team fix" in free agency: "If you want to see a shocking transformation of a weak unit into a dominating unit, look no further than Buffalo. ... This has a chance to be among the most dominating fronts in 2012, after being the weakest unit on this team in 2011. This will be a fun group to watch in the future."

Buffalo Bills ticket office extends hours - BuffaloBills.com
"The Buffalo Bills announced due to high demand and the first season ticket deposit deadline approaching on Friday, March 30, the team’s ticket office will have extended hours, Thursday, March 29 from 9:00 AM – 7:00 PM and Friday, March 30 from 8:00 AM – 6:00 PM."

Inside The Bills | Stroud contemplating comeback
"Former Bills DL Marcus Stroud is considering a comeback after sitting out the 2011 season."

Inside The Bills | McShay mock goes WR for Bills
"Floyd is a bit of a reach here, but no more so than OTs Mike Adams and Jonathan Martin. It’s a tough call on the Bills’ top two needs in this scenario, and they could look to trade down in a situation like this. They could also pull the trigger on a value pick such as Coples." McShay goes Brock Osweiler in the second round...

Inside The Bills | ’95 Bills not a bad comparison
"Not much was expected from a ’95 Bills squad that most analysts felt was on the decline after a 7-9 season the year before, and their first non-playoff appearance since 1987. But their defense was helped tremendously by the additions of Bryce Paup and Ted Washington, with Paup going on to earn NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors."

Road to the Draft: Michael Floyd - The Buffalo News
Mark Gaughan takes a look at the Notre Dame receiver that most Bills fans want to see in red, white, and blue this September.

Poll: Best AFC East offseason move - AFC East Blog - ESPN
Mario Williams has a comfotable lead over Brandon Lloyd to the Patriots.

AFC East free-agency assessment - AFC East Blog - ESPN
James Walker recaps key additions and losses for each team in the division. When Roscoe Parrish is on the losses list, you know something's right.

AFC East mock draft board - AFC East Blog - ESPN
"I was surprised how fast Floyd is moving up everyone's draft board. Buffalo fans lately are in love with the Notre Dame product. Floyd was the top choice on the community board. I’m still a little nervous about Floyd in the top 10, but he did make the end of my list. I still like [Riley] Reiff here at left tackle. Buffalo rotated three players there last year, and they need a bookend to protect quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick’s blind side."

2012 SB Nation NFL Writers Mock Draft: Recapping The Top Ten Picks - Stampede Blue
Unsurprisingly, people at Stampede Blue think the Mike Adams pick is stupid.

Bell's decision could affect Bills' No. 1 draft choice - AFC East Daily
"Despite being one of the highest-ranked tackles left on the market, the Bills may be better off letting Bell go, especially given his injuries the past couple years. And with a plethora of talented wideouts in this year's draft class, Buffalo may be able to fill both needs with their first two picks."

Ex-Spartans QB not caught up in rise up draft boards | MLive.com
"Cousins said the NFL teams showing the most interest right now include the Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Cleveland Browns."

Ugly cycle: Four desperate teams can't misfire on top-10 picks - Sporting News
"The Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars and St. Louis Rams all hold a top-10 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, which begins April 26. Those teams have a pick among the first 10 selections for at least the third time since 2009, though the Browns traded down from the top 10 in 2009 and 2011."

Web Rumblings: Buffalo Bills News, 3/29

MattRichWarren — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 11:41:23 -0000

Inside The Bills | Mario likely, but not locked in LDE
"Nothing is set in concrete about who is going to play where," Gailey said. "We’re going to look at a lot of different scenarios there and put guys in position to be the most successful they can be. It may be him. He feels comfortable and works a lot better off the left side. If he is it’s not like we’re bad on the other side. And a right-handed quarterback if he has to scramble is going to scramble to our left side and that’s now more difficult with him there."

Bills coach Chan Gailey on Mario, Fred vs CJ, Nick - Canoe.ca
Chan Gailey's complete Q&A from the NFL's Owner Meetings.

Williams & Anderson reminders of '95 pass rush? - BuffaloBills.com
In 1994, Buffalo had the third-lowest sacks in the league with 25 despite Bruce Smith's 10. In 1995, after adding Bryce Paup and Ted Washington, the Bills almost doubled their sack total to 49. Phil Hansen discusses having a whole group that can get after the quarterback.

Rex takes a shot at Schottenheimer over the Wildcat | ProFootballTalk
"I told the team there’s only one coordinator that can stop the Wildcat with Brad Smith back there, and... it’s Brian Schottenheimer," Ryan told the New York Post. "I used to kid Brian all the time about it."

Inside The Bills | Fred addresses age issue
"I don’t feel any older at all," Jackson said. "They say 30 is the threshold for running backs, and I felt like I had a pretty good season going (at 30) until I got hurt. So I don’t buy into that, there’s a lot of guys that don’t buy into that. It’s just kind of a number that they throw out there. It doesn’t bother me. If anything, it motivates me."

Playoff OT Rules Applied To Reg. Season; Bills Proposal Doesn't Pass - WGR 550
Joe Buscaglia goes over the rule changes from the league meetings.

Bills propose that the official in the booth makes the call on replays | Shutdown Corner
"There's no downside to doing things Chan's way. The guy upstairs can get started looking at the replays faster. It's his only responsibility. There's no reason he shouldn't be on top of everything, and already looking at replays of things before they're even challenged."

'Gronk,' Revis advance in 'Madden' tourney - AFC East Blog - ESPN
Stevie Johnson lost his match to Darelle Revis in the race for Madden cover boy. Stevie won on the field in 2011.

A lot to be proud of in our sports world | Democrat and Chronicle
"The Buffalo Bills actually have a pulse after signing defensive stalwarts Mario Williams and Mark Anderson this month."

Buffalo Bills Q and A with Buffalowdown: NFL Draft Preview - NFL Mocks
"It’s that time of year where there is a clear picture of what teams will need for the 2012 NFL season. We’ll be conducting interviews with Experts that cover other teams to give you, the reader, a more comprehensive look of teams you might not follow. Today will chat with Buffalowdown editor Brad Andrews."

Go ahead. Get Excited about the Bills | BuffaloWins
"It’s alright. I know your heart is telling you it’s too soon to fall again, but it’s ok. There’s reason to get excited, to believe. You’ve been hurt before, but this time, it really is different. We’ve truly never seen anything like this. So it’s ok to already be excited for the Bills’ season to start."

Count me in with Buffalo | BuffaloWins
"Even if these two new rich Buffalonians turn out to be duds, the impression has been made. When it counted, he did what he could to make his team viable again – to give his fans something to believe in. He may be all that is wrong with sports but, at least for one year, he’s all that is right with Buffalo."

Kevin Mawae Explains the Origin of the "Home of the Jets" Chant

David Vill — Sun, 11 Dec 2011 13:08:05 -0000

I wondered out loud yesterday about the origin of the "Home of the Jets" chant, which we here all loved so much that we voted on making it our tagline. I was certain that FB Tony Richardson didn't bring it to New York, although perhaps someone else may have. I theorized that it had something to do with Gang Green not having their own stadium. It turns out that was wrong, too.

I finally learned the origin of the chant last night, but I certainly didn't expect it would be coming from the man himself, former Jets C Kevin Mawae and currently president of the NFLPA, who was kind enough to email me with the explanation:

In 1998 the Jets went to Kansas City to play the Chiefs. The game was a hard fought one that went to the wire. The Jets won the game on a John Hall field goal at the end of the game. The Chief's fans are known for saying "home of the chiefs" at the end of the National Anthem...and I must say, it's pretty cool!

Well, once we were in the locker room after Bill Parcell's post game speech, the team was called up for the final team break down at which point someone (don't know who) started yelling "and the home..." at this point the rest of the team chimed in..."of the, JETS". We did it every game we won after that win...

the next week we went on to play the Buffalo Bills...very memorable because as I was enjoying the win coming onto the plane, Parcells asked me why I was so happy. He went on to tell me that he didn't bring me to the Jets to beat KC, but to block Ted Washington, who would be matched up against the following week.

Anyways, we went 12-4 that year and that is how the "Home of the Jets" chant started.

Of course, that next week, Kevin and the Jets beat Ted Washington and the Bills.

I love hearing about this stuff just as much as I love watching the games. It makes sense that it didn't start farther back than that, because a game-winning chant wouldn't have survived the 1996 season.

Interestingly, Chiefs HC Todd Haley was a Jets assistant in 1998, and he may have been there to witness this chant originating. It's also interesting that Richardson, the man who pretty much popularized this chant recently, was actually on the losing end during its origination, although he did score a touchdown in that game. (T-Rich is now also in the executive committee of the NFLPA, by the way.)

Thanks again to Kevin for providing the answer. So it wasn't some feel-good story of a former Chief bringing it to New York. Rather, it was Gang Green brashly taking something and making it their own. Let's hope for a great performance by the team today, and hopefully at the end of the game, we along with the players will all be chanting, "and the home of the... JETS!!!"

Care To See The Difference Between Earl Mitchell And Shaun Cody?

MDC — Sun, 18 Sep 2011 03:28:40 -0000

Some of us will do our jobs well and some will not, but we will be judged by only one thing --- the result. --Vince Lombardi

Judging solely by the result --- 64 rushing yards and 4 rushing 1st downs allowed, along with no rushing TDs --- it seems odd (and needlessly negative) to say that there were any problems with the run defense. Nevertheless, difference in opinion over Shaun Cody's performance last Sunday ran the gamut from "abysmal" to "great." There's no way everyone could be right, right?

My initial reaction to the game was that Cody was pretty bad, while Mitchell was average or slightly better. (Yes, I know Cody fell on a fumble. Awesome. Great. Blind hog and acorn and all that.) Given that I still had the game on DVR, I was in a position to confirm --- or disconfirm --- my thesis. So I went through the game again, focusing entirely on NT play when the Texans were in the 3-4 and the Colts decided to run.

Long story short, I think my initial take was pretty accurate. After the jump, we'll look at why.

What follows is a screenshot of each play that fit the criteria above: Texans in base 3-4; Colts running the ball. I've circled the NT and his blocker(s) in each of the pics, too, just to make it easier for you. Because I love you. Yes, you.

Cody #1. The run looked designed to go off left tackle, but that side of the line collapsed quickly. Joseph Addai cut back inside, where Cody (theoretically) was supposed to be. Unfortunately, RT Jeffrey Linkenbach had not only blocked Cody, but shoved him to the ground. Addai gained 11 yards.

Cody #2. J.J. Watt got immediate penetration, but missed the shoestring tackle. This was a designed middle run, and Addai ran directly at where Cody had lined up. Cody was not there, however, as he'd been ridden out of the play, first by the center, then by the right guard. Addai gained 1 yard.

Mitchell #1. Addai on a draw play looks right, but finds no hole. He starts to cut back left, but Mitchell gets immediate penetration --- the cool kids call it "shooting the gap" --- and makes the tackle for no gain.

Mitchell #2. The Colts' line blocks left for a run that looks designed to go through the 5 hole (left side). Addai stutters steps, the 5 closes, and he bounces it all the way outside. Cushing has crashed down too quickly, and Addai goes for 13 yards. Mitchell gets leveled by C Jeff Saturday as he tries to change directions.

Cody #3. The Colts are all like, "hey, running up the middle when 95 is on the field seems like a solid plan." So they do that, and RG Ryan Diem easily moves Cody out of the way. Cody got free as Addai went by him, but Cody failed to wrap up and missed the tackle, and Addai went for 7.

Cody #4. Indy lined up with three WRs clustered on the right side, and the run was a designed pitch to Addai to the outside. Linkenbach and Saturday neutralized Cody immediately with minimal effort. (Notice that Cody is the only one of the three D-linemen who didn't easily get free and chase the play. Notice, too, that neither O-lineman is really putting much of a block on him. But I digress.)

HALFTIME

Cody #5. Another designed middle run. Diem neutralizes Cody easily, allowing Saturday to put a hat on Brian Cushing, as Addai gets 7 yards.

I'm fudging a tiny bit here, only because TE Jacob Tamme got called for a hold, so this play did not actually count. Still, this is a run that was designed to go to the 4 hole (note Diem looking second level through that hole). However, DE Tim Jamison (GO BLUE!) gets penetration and Mitchell holds the point of attack, pushing Saturday into Addai's path. Addai then bounces the run to the outside, where Cushing and CB Johnathan Joseph tackle him for no gain.

Mitchell #4. I used two pictures here to demonstrate what I think is the key difference between Cody and Mitchell. Here, Mitchell tries to shoot the A-gap to Jeff Saturday's right, but Saturday, looking to the second level, gets in Mitchell's path. At the same time, Ryan Diem, blocks Mitchell on a trajectory nearly perpendicular to Mitchell's trajectory. Despite being knocked off balance, Mitchell rights himself quickly without falling and manages to hold the point on the run. Delone Carter manages only two yards as Mitchell helps cause a pileup at the point of attack.

Cody #6. To his credit, Cody tries to shoot the A-gap to Saturday's left on the snap. Unfortunately, Saturday immediately renders Cody moot, blocking him to the offense's left. Linkebach also moves Anderson out of the way, but Addai managed only 2 yards as Cushing and Mario recovered quickly and shut the play down.

Mitchell #5. In the above picture, you'll see something that the Colts did not do against Shaun Cody --- double-teaming the NT with Saturday and Diem. Carter runs right behind that big block for a gain of 3.

Mitchell #6. Mitchell is doubled again, this time by Saturday and LG Joe Reitz. Linkenbach seals Watt on the edge and Mario guesses play actions and chases Collins rather than Carter. Again, even with the double-team, Mitchell stays on his feet and holds the point and, despite the giant hole, Carter gets only 2 yards.

Upon further review, it seems pretty obvious that Mitchell was more effective at NT in the run game than was Cody. Mitchell was better holding the middle, not getting ridden out of plays by a single blocker, and requiring double-teams on middle runs. The Pro Football Focus numbers also bear this out; Mitchell's grade in run defense was +1.4 (highest run D score on the team Sunday), while Cody scored an abysmal -1.6.

As someone (Nash?) pointed out, the base 3-4, whether with Mitchell or Cody, was not on the field a whole lot Sunday, as Indy imploded almost immediately and had to pass to try to catch up. This limited number of snaps makes it tempting to suggest that (a) NT is not all that terribly important on this defense or (b) that the sample size here is too small to draw conclusions from. I don't buy either argument.

First, as to importance of the NT, it's only because Kerry CoLOLins fumbled the ball repeatedly early on that the Texans were able to quickly build a lead. Banking on recovering fumbles on back-to-back snaps is not the best way to build one's defense for continued success. Additionally, the Colts just do not have much of a running game; against a team with a strong interior line and a running game that continued to come at the Texans, Cody's play would be (and, sadly, will be) a glaring deficiency whenever he's on the field.

Secondly, re: sample size, the problem with that argument is that Cody's poor play was totally in keeping with what we saw through most of the preseason, to say nothing of the fact that he's been pretty terrible throughout his career. Maybe he's not -1.6 bad --- though he very well could be in a 3-4 --- but he's not good by any stretch of the imagination.

Conversely, it's pretty likely that Earl Mitchell is not +1.4 good in run defense in a 3-4. At the same time, the details of his play, going against the same offensive linemen as Cody was last Sunday, suggest that he's literally better than Cody in every facet of the position. Where Cody was getting blown off the ball by Saturday or Diem and was a non-factor on almost every snap, Mitchell was noticeably quick off the ball (to the point that he guessed wrong and got a stupid encroachment penalty on the play before Reggie Wayne went Fred Astaire in the back of the endzone) and was shooting his gap, either clogging running lanes or requiring an extra blocker. Not counting the designed off-tackle/outside runs, the Colts averaged 5.6/carry running at Cody; they averaged under 2 yards/carry running up the middle when Mitchell was in the game. (Here might be the one place that the sample-size caveat applies.)

I'm not trying to pretend that Earl Mitchell is the next Ted Washington in a Wade Phillips defense (or even the next Jay Ratliff). He has flaws to be sure. But when he's rotating in with another player, alternating possessions for the most part, and he's so obviously outperforming the other NT, I'm also not willing to pretend like Mitchell and Cody are fungible or that Cody is not absolutely terrible in this new defense.

Yeah, the Texans won, and they won handily against Kerry Collins & The Old Fashioneds. That's awesome. I'm legitimately happy about it. But I also think we've seen the first signs of something that could be a massive problem as we go forward. Maybe not against Miami, mind you, where Reggie Bush had one 13-yard gain up the middle and otherwise managed less than 3 yards/carry between the tackles, but soon. I, for one, shudder at the thought of the first game where the Texans fall behind early and the other team wants to run the ball. Or, perhaps more accurately, I shudder at whatever percentage of those runs come with Cody on the field.

To end with another quote from Lombardi, "Some people try to find things in this game that don't exist but football is only two things --- blocking and tackling." Indeed. Someone should inform Shaun Cody.

You Keep Playing Shaun Cody. I Do Not Think He Does What You Think He Does.

MDC — Mon, 22 Aug 2011 21:00:41 -0000

Glorious And Exalted Leader touched on it in this post earlier today, and it's been patently obvious to anyone who has watched more than five minutes of either preseason game, so I am not exactly breaking new ground when I say that the Texans' run defense (especially up the middle) has been about as effective at stopping penetration as a cellophane chastity belt. Well, I have good news and I have bad news about that.

The good news is that the problem is easy to diagnose.

The bad news? The problem is personnel-related. (And, by "personnel," I mean "Shaun Cody" and --- to a lesser extent --- the ILBs.)

First, let's take a peek at how Wade Phillips' defense is supposed to work when it comes to defending runs between the tackles.

Here's your basic alignment, strongside left, sans WRs/CBs:

The first thing that should jump out at you is that the defensive front three do not spread evenly across the offensive front. J.J. Watt is lined up in a 3-technique position, on the outside shoulder of the right guard; Shaun Cody, your nominal nose tackle, is in a 2i-technique position over the inside shoulder of the left guard; and Antonio Smith is playing the 5-technique outside the left shoulder of the left tackle. This alignment leaves a noticeable space over the right-side (from the offense's perspective) A-gap. (Note: I've seen Cushing in both the SILB and WILB positions, so feel free to flip-flop the ILBs in your head if that better fits your preconceived notions.)

This alignment is based on how Wade's one-gap system works in a best-case scenario. To wit:

When working properly, Wade's system of run defense is deceptively simple. The OLBs take the C-gaps (or maintain backside discipline if the run is away from them), the DEs take the B-gaps, and the NT takes one A-gap. The other A-gap is filled by one of the ILBs (in this example, Cushing). The other ILB plays the middle, shaded slightly toward the strong side in case the run is a counter, and both safeties come forward in position to collapse to the middle or get to the edge if necessary.

Gaps plugged, run stopped, high-fives and chest-bumps for all!

When it's not working properly, however? Well, then you get what you saw on the Saints' first play from scrimmage Saturday night:

The entire problem starts at the nose. Rather than shoot his gap, Shaun Cody gets hit by the LG and C, and blocked harmlessly out of the play. At the same time, the lead-blocking FB hits Cushing, preventing Cushing from getting penetration at all. ~~Sharpton~~ Adibi (who I misidentified as Sharpton) shooting toward the same gap that Cushing was trying to fill, gets caught up in the wash and can't get there. Pierre Thomas, following his lead block, has no problem getting to the second and third level, and he gains 13 yards before being brought down by Kareem Jackson.

It doesn't exactly take a rocket surgeon to diagnose the problem(s) here. First and foremost, Cody's inability to be a factor on defense takes on a whole new level of importance in 2011. If he can't penetrate --- the one time the Saints let him so as to better set up the screen notwithstanding --- he's literally worthless to this team. Actually, that's not even true. If he's getting blocked out of every single play (and he is), he's bringing negative value to the team.

Second, Cushing has got to fight through lead blocks more effectively. He almost seemed surprised to get popped by the FB on this play --- the hit stood Cushing up and the play just went right by him. At the same time, this is related to the Cody problem; when he gets blocked out of the play from the snap, the hole through A-gap is so wide, it could be a Kardashian. On top of which, if the NT were getting penetration, the timing of the play and the efficacy of the lead block would be altered.

Third, Adibi took a terrible angle on his blitz and let himself get blocked out of the play rather than maintaining assignment discipline. I chalk that up to being overly excited on the first play of the game, so it's much, much less of a worry in my book.

So, what to do? Or, to quote Ray Zalinksy, "Great, you've pinpointed it. The next step is washing it off."

Well, the NT problem is fixed to a large degree by playing Earl Mitchell (and I'd even like to see Damione Lewis and Scooter Berry playing that position before Cody). Mitchell's not Jay Ratliff, and he'll never make people forget about Ted Washington, but he seems to have a much better grasp of his role in this defense and the ability to perform his job duties. For example, just sticking with the Saints game, on 2-and-10, late in the third quarter, Mitchell rode the Saints' center into the backfield, located the running back trying to go left off-tackle, and make the tackle for no gain. Sure, it's just one play, and it was against the Saints' B-team, so you have to take it with a grain of salt. But, still, if Cody is appreciably better than Mitchell, such that Cody is on the Texans' A squad and Mitchell on the B, then shouldn't Cody be able to do something similar against the Saints' A-team as Mitchell did against the B? Conversely, if the difference between them really is minimal, then shouldn't the edge go to the guy who has at least shown an ability to do what you need him to do, regardless of whether it was the Saints' starters or not?

Don't get me wrong; in no way am I suggesting that Earl Mitchell is a panacea. Truth is, this style of defense is going to have issues up the middle, regardless of who is at NT. We've known this all along. When Wade was hired back in January, I wrote:

Like any defense, Phillips' scheme has its flaws. First and foremost, the defense leaves the middle open a lot, which can be especially damaging against a power running team. [W]hen a running back beats the initial wave of linemen and blitzing linebackers, he is pretty quickly into the open, with only the deep safety and (possibly) the closer safety having much of a chance to catch him.

The second flaw, related to the first, is that teams can plan knowing that the middle is going to be open a lot, meaning that teams with athletic TEs or teams who run a lot of slants/dig routes can find success and can base their offense around that hole. This weakness can be countered somewhat by utilizing the Strong OLB in TE coverage and keeping one of the ILBs home if the other is blitzing, but then you start to negate some of your options in the pass rush. You can also counter this weakness by generating enough pass rush that there's no time for TE drags or 10-yard dig routes to develop.

Point being, it should not be a surprise that there is some amount of trouble with the middle runs, especially this early in the year. The surprise, such as it is, is that Shaun Cody has been so absolutely abysmal playing the NT role. If the team can just address this, preferably by admitting right now that Earl Mitchell is going to be the starter and letting him run with the 1s on Saturday, they'll take a large step toward fixing the glitch. (You know who else would have been good shooting the gap from a 2-technique NT position? Hint: his new team plays tonight. /sigh)

In fact, I'd go so far as to say that I am more surprised by Cushing's struggles against lead blocks. Or, at least I would be surprised, were these problems not perfectly in line with what we saw from Cushing last season. You know, like last December, when I wrote:

I suppose that the answer stems, in part, from whatever it is that has Cushing playing generally like a mediocre outside linebacker this season. Whatever that might be. You know ... like ... whatever could possibly have had him playing much better last year and is not helping him this year. Whatever that is.

When you toss DeMeco Ryans' pre-injury question marks last year and the current uncertainty around his recovery, along with the leap of faith it takes to believe that the Xavier Adibi that you've seen since August 15th is more indicative of his ability than the one you saw in the years prior to August 15th, inside linebacker actually is a bigger concern to me at this instant than is NT. At least the Texans have Earl Mitchell and could, therefore, address the Cody issue; at ILB, the only one I have a good feeling about right now is Darryl Sharpton.

If the Texans have to look elsewhere to fix either or both of these issues, there is still a modicum of talent available in the defensive tackle free-agent pool. Tony Brown, if he's healthy enough, might relish the chance to play his old team twice this year. Clifton Ryan should still have a little left in the tank. Speaking of tanks, Tank Johnson (whom Wade knows and has coached) is out there. John McCargo was there, until yesterday, which ruined my whole "maybe being back with Mario would be good for him" theory. Umm ... Pat Williams is old, and not really in the mold of what Wade looks for, but there's no chance that he's not a massive upgrade over Cody, especially in short yardage.

At ILB, the pickings are slimmer (both literally and figuratively, I guess), but there are some options. My favorite possibility is Channing Crowder, who has recently said that he does not, in fact, want to retire and wants to play in 2011. Rocky McIntosh is also intriguing to some extent. And that's about it.

Having said all of that about the Texans' problems and causes, I want to end on a more positive note. So, no matter what issues the team is having with the run defense right now, a few things bear keeping in mind. First, they won both preseason games, suggesting that this flaw is not necessarily fatal. Second, the team is allowing 4.0 yards/carry on 26.5 carries/game; last year, when the Texans had the easiest defense to pass on in the known universe, but the run D seem fairly decent, they allowed 4.0 yards/carry on 27.1 carries/game. Finally, just to quote myself one more time (posturbating!):

[E]very defense has its flaws, ESPECIALLY THE ONE WE'VE BEEN RUNNING IN TWO SIMILAR FORMS SINCE 2006. I'll be damned if I am going to let the idea that, "Oh noes, there's a hole in that defense!" prevent me from upgrading the current vanilla-blitzing, terrible-secondary-in-a-stupid-soft-zone, oh-my-lord-why-can't-we-stop-a-single-pass, I-think-I-want-to-die-yes-please-kill-me-now scheme.

********

Tangent: What the hell is going on with Cody's hair? Seriously?!

Past As Prologue: What Can We Really Expect On Defense in 2011?

MDC — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 19:00:40 -0000

It would be a gross understatement to say that the Texans' defense on Monday night was better and more aggressive than what we are used to seeing. I mean, seven sacks. SEVEN. As in "five more than the sacks/game average over the last two seasons" or even "two more than the Texans had in any game, preseason or otherwise, under Frank Bush." There were nineteen passes defensededded, and even Anwatun Molden had an INT (though it was wiped from the books like an Ohio State win¹). So, while it was not perfect by any stretch,² compared to last year, it was the difference between sipping 1907 Hiedsieck Diamant Bleu while relaxing at Villa La Leopolda and swilling room-temperature Milwaukee's Best in a double-wide on the outskirts of Le Flore, Oklahoma.³

But, hey, it's just the preseason, and you can't extrapolate much from one preseason game, right? Well, while you (probably) shouldn't pencil the Texans in for 112 sacks on the year, you can use the performance to paint with broad strokes. What I mean is, looking at the apparent improvement over last year's defense in the context of Wade Phillips' track-record with new teams, Monday's performance might be more of a harbinger than you realize.

Wade Allen Phillips: A Somewhat-Brief History. Wade Phillips has been coaching in the NFL in some capacity since 1976 (save for 2001, when he was unemployed). In that time, he has served as the Houston Oilers' defensive line coach (1976 to 1980); defensive coordinator for the New Orleans Saints (1981 to 1985), the Philadelphia Eagles (1986 to 1988), the Denver Broncos (1989 to 1992), the Buffalo Bills (1995 to 1997), the Atlanta Falcons (2002 to 2003), the San Diego Chargers (2004 to 2006), and the Dallas Cowboys (2009 to 2010); and head coach of the Broncos (1993 to 1994), Bills (1998 to 2000), and Cowboys (2007 to 2010).

Throughout his travels, his calling card has been defense. Aside from his time with the Eagles, when Reggie White was so dominant as a 4-3 DE that Phillips stuck with the 4-3, Wade's defensive style has generally been his 3-4, which functions almost like a 5-2, and a 4-2 nickel package. Using his 3-4 to generate pressure in the form of creative blitz schemes, Phillips' defenses have often featured their best pass rushers as OLBs. (Though not exclusively, as, in Buffalo, the most dominant pass rusher was defensive end Bruce Smith, and defensive ends led the team in sacks both of Phillips' two seasons in Atlanta.) This, of course, is all stuff that you probably knew prior to even clicking on this post.

Here's what you might not have known, however: by most any measure, the arrival of Wade Phillips to a team has nearly always meant an improved defense, and that improvement has often been huge, even in year one. The following table illustrates what I'm talking about; the first year listed for each team is the season prior to Wade's arrival, while the second year is his first season with the team. The numbers in each column are the teams' respective ranks among NFL teams in the categories. The categories are, left to right, Yards Allowed Per Game, Points Allowed Per Game, Passing TDs Allowed, Interceptions, First Downs Allowed, Net Yards Allowed Per Passing Attempt, Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game, Rushing TDs Allowed, and Total Turnovers Forced.

Team	Year	Record	Yds/Gm	Pts/Gm	PassTD	INTs	1stD	NetYds/Att	RshYd/Gm	RushTD	Trnovrs
Saints	1980	1-15	28	28	28	28	28	24	28	27	28
	1981	4-12	11	24	23	21	14	26	11	17	21
Eagles	1985	7-9	10	10	6	19	13	10	21	15	25
	1986	5-10-1	17	12	11	9	4	10	19	15	14
Broncos	1988	8-8	22	20	10	19	21	12	27	25	24
	1989	11-5	3	1	1	9	1	3	6	7	2
Bills	1994	7-9	17	22	25	18	13	25	8	8	18
	1995	10-6	13	12	1	12	5	7	11	25	21
Falcons	2001	7-9	24	30	28	13	21	31	21	20	14
	2002	9-6-1	19	8	18	3	10	17	23	6	2
Chargers	2003	4-12	27	31	32	25	29	22	25	13	28
	2004	12-4	18	11	11	3	25	22	3	21	8
Cowboys	2006	9-7	13	20	27	10	15	23	10	11	8
	2007	13-3	9	13	8	6	19	7	6	17	15
Texans	2010	6-10	30	29	31	23	31	31	13	26	30

HTML Tables

(Yes, I am aware that Phillips was technically only the head coach for Dallas in 2007 and did not become DC until 2009. However, the nominal DC in '07 and '08 was Brian Stewart, who was brought to Dallas by Wade after serving as the secondary coach for the Chargers while Wade was DC. Couple that with the fact that Wade basically took the playcalling duties away from Stewart in 2008 and I feel pretty comfortable using 2006/2007 as the baseline for Wade's impact in Dallas.)

As far as that table goes, you can see that the improvements in some categories and/or across some two-year spans are borderline absurd. An even easier, shorthand way to visualize the improvements for each team is using Pro-Football-Reference's Defensive Simple Rating System. (You can click the link to read about the SRS generally.) For each team, here are the DSRS scores for each of the years above.

Saints: -9.4, -2.4
Eagles: 1.3, 1.4
Broncos: -3.4, 5.7
Bills: -1.8, -0.4
Falcons: -2.0, 1.5
Chargers: -6.2, 3.0
Cowboys: -1.3, 1.7

In both the table and the DSRS list, the only situation where there is not a marked improvement was in Philadelphia where, as I mentioned, Wade did not run his 3-4. In all of the other situations, either the team was already running a 3-4 when Wade arrived, which he then tweaked to his system, or they were running a 4-3, and he switched them to the 3-4 in a single off-season. In some ways, that kind of makes Philly the exception that proves the rule here.

As Texans fans, Wade's impact in New Orleans, Atlanta, and San Diego are most applicable, as those are the teams who were running 4-3 defenses prior to Phillips' arrival. In New Orleans, he took over an absolutely abysmal 4-3 and set about converting it by drafting Frank Warren (6-4/285) out of Auburn and Jim Wilks (6-5/266) out of UCSD, both of whom would see time at the NT position in 1981. The Saints also drafted LOLB Ricky Jackson, who would start for the Saints from Day 1 and go on to a fantastic career, out of Pitt and LILB Glen Redd out of BYU. Wade got one last year in New Orleans out of RDE Elois Grooms, and he stuck Derland Moore (who would see time at NT, despite being 6-4/250, in subsequent seasons) at LDE. The defensive starters were rounded out with ROLB Rob Nairne and RILB Jim Kovach, CBs Dave Waymer and Johnnie Poe, and safeties Tom Myers and Russell Gary. The defense improved more or less across the board, and the yards/game, rush defense, and ability to stop drives improved dramatically.

Atlanta is probably the closest analog to the Texans' situation. The 2001 Falcons went 7-9 and had a talented MLB (Keith Brooking), a very good defensive end (Patrick Kerney), an above-average defensive end on the other side (Brady Smith) and mediocre safeties (Gerald McBurrows and Ronnie Bradford). Ed Jasper (6-2/293) was installed as the NT. They brought in Sam Rogers, who Wade knew from Buffalo, to play ROLB. Brooking and John Holecek were put at the ILB positions, and second-year LB Matt Stewart started at LOLB. In the defensive backfield, they replaced Bradford with Keion Carpenter, and CBs Ray Buchanan and Ashley Ambrose kept their starting gigs. Using this new defense, the Falcons went from 37 sacks in 2001 to 47 in 2002, and they created 39 turnovers (second-best in the league). They also improved their scoring defense, holding opponents to under 20 points/game after surrendering 23.6/game the previous season.

Finally, as far as 4-3 to 3-4 switches go, Phillips went to San Diego. He moved Donnie Edwards to RILB, kept SLB Ben Leber as the LOLB, signed Steve Foley from Houston to play ROLB, and signed Randal Godfrey to play LILB. Up front, he moved Jamal Williams (6-3/348) to NT, made second-year player Jacques Cesaire the starting LDE, and drafted Igor Olshansky (6-6/309) out of Oregon to play LDE. In the secondary, CBs Quentin Jammer and Sammy Davis remained the starters (though Davis was eventually replaced that season with cheap-shot-artist Drayton Florence), Jerry Wilson retained one safety position, and Kwamie Lassiter was replaced in the other safety position by Terrence Kiel. While this unit did not notch a ton of sacks (29, after 30 the previous season, with Foley leading the team with 10), they snagged 23 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries, and they held opponents under 20 points/game (19.6) one year after giving up 27.6. (For comparison, the Texans gave up 26.7/game last year.)

SO...knowing all of this and seeing what we saw on Monday night, what questions about the 2011 Texans' defense can we hazard an educated guess at? I can think of at least four.

Yes, JMay, 50 sacks are possible. I don't base this so much on the seven (SEVEN!) sacks against the Jets, but on the fact that those sacks were collected by four different players, none of whom is named "Mario Williams." When you are getting pressure with Xavier Adibi, Bryan Braman, Jesse Nading, and Steven Friday, you are saying that you are willing to bring just about any linebacker at any time in order to get pressure.

Throw in the constant penetration that J.J. Watt was getting and the fact that Mario Williams will definitely get his over the course of the year, to say nothing of the return of Brian Cushing, and fifty sacks (just over 3/game) seems like a realistic, if lofty, goal. Wade's track record certainly bears this out; his teams have topped 50 sacks 7 times (including 61 for the Chargers in 2006), and they've topped 45 (i.e., been less than 1 sack every 3 games from hitting 50) 10 other times.

Earl Mitchell is big enough to be your starting NT. Again, not basing this just on Monday, where Mitchell played very well, but on Wade's history. Check out this list (asterisk denotes Pro Bowler):

HOU - Curly Culp* -- 6-2/265
NO - Frank Warren -- 6-4/285
NO - Jim Wilks -- 6-5/266
NO - Derland Moore -- 6-4/250
NO - Tony Elliott -- 6-2/282
DEN - Greg Kragen* -- 6-3/263
BUF - Ted Washington* -- 6-5/365
ATL - Ed Jasper -- 6-2/293
ATL - Ellis Johnson -- 6-2/288
SD - Jamal Williams* -- 6-3/348
SD - Jason Fisk -- 6-3/295
DAL - Tank Johnson -- 6-3/300
DAL - Jay Ratliff* -- 6-4/293

That, fairly obviously, is every player who took an appreciable number of snaps as a starter at nose tackle for a Wade Phillips defense going all the way back to Wade's days as the Oilers' defensive line coach. Of those, only Curly Culp, Frank Warren, Tony Elliott, Ted Washington, and Jamal Williams were above average in terms of weight for NT at the time. Of that group, only Culp, Washington, and Williams were full-time starters (and, not for nothin', they all happen to be absolutely fantastic players). Of that group, care to guess how many players Phillips actually went out and acquired? Hint: It's one. Ted Washington, who Wade knew from his Denver days. Culp and Williams were both already on their respective teams when Wade arrived.

On the flip side, Phillips other two Pro Bowl NTs, Kragen and Ratliff, were "undersized," at least relative to their NT contemporaries. Despite the fact that the Cowboys were running a 3-4 under Bill Parcells, prior to Wade's arrival, Jay Ratliff was not even a starter until Phillips came to Dallas. Kragen had been a starter for Denver in 1988, when Denver's defense was well below average; under Phillips the following season, Kragen made the Pro Bowl and Denver held opponents to 14.1 points/game (before getting violated in the Super Bowl).

Point being, with the exception of Ted Washington (trade) and Frank Warren (draft), Wade has generally found a player already on his roster to play the NT role. Being a massive guy is not important, simply because Phillips does not ask the NT in the base 3-4 to play a 2-gap role. Far more important is the ability to get consistent penetration as a one-gap player. Flank that guy with two large-ish DEs (i.e., Antonio Smith (6-3/280) and J.J. Watt (6-5/290)) and it just simply does not matter that your NT is sub-300 pounds. Earl Mitchell (6-3/291) is plenty big enough.

Mario Williams will be fine as an OLB. During and following Monday's game, one of the stories that kept showing up, both here and in the media, was that Mario "looked lost in coverage" or "seemed hesitant in the pass rush."⁴ Color me unconcerned.

As to his coverage skills, I ask you this: how often does DeMarcus Ware drop into coverage? If you said "according to Football Outsiders' game charters, he was in coverage on only six passes in 2010," you would be correct. You would also probably be named Aaron Schatz or Rivers McCown, but that's neither here nor there. Even if you buy the idea that Ware is markedly better in zone coverage than is Mario Williams --- which I certainly don't buy, given the tiny sample size and Mario's (guh) familiarity with zone coverage in the Richard Smith days --- if Mario is used the same way that Ware was under Phillips, that marked difference just does not matter enough to really worry about.

As for any false steps or hesitation or whatnot from Mario qua pass-rusher, you'll have to forgive me if that seems like a petty complaint after Mario's first preseason game in the position. Mario was a big reason Adibi got his first sack on Monday night. Moreover, as noted here, Mario did not look "lost." That was a story overblown by the talking-head jackasses on ESPN, who pointed to an INSIDE run as proof that OLB Mario Williams was out of position. Yeah, damning evidence, fellas. Mario simply looked like someone playing a new position for the first time, and I have no doubt that he will be fine under Wade's tutelage. After all, Shawne Merriman was a DE in college, and he notched 10 sacks in his first NFL season, despite transitioning to a new position. And you'll never convince me that Mr. Tequila is more physically gifted than Mario Williams.

This team is going to generate a lot more turnovers. Another list for your perusal:

1981 Saints -- 17 interceptions (up from 12 the previous year), 34 turnovers (up from 24).
1986 Eagles -- 23 interceptions (up from 18), 36 turnovers (up from 32).
1989 Broncos -- 21 interceptions (up from 16), 43 turnovers (up from 29).
1995 Bills -- 17 interceptions (up from 16), 28 turnovers (same as previous year).
2002 Falcons --- 24 interceptions (up from 18), 39 turnovers (up from 30).
2004 Chargers -- 23 interceptions (up from 13), 33 turnovers (up from 20).
2007 Cowboys -- 19 interceptions (up from 18), 29 turnovers (down from 31).

Interceptions have increased following Wade's arrival at every single stop on his resume. More importantly, the biggest gains in INTs have been the three situations where he was transitioning a team from a 4-3 (Saints -- 42% increase, Falcons -- 33% increase, Chargers -- 77% increase). Similarly, three of the four best increases in total turnovers were made by those teams (Saints -- 42%, Falcons -- 30%, Chargers -- 65%).

Last season, your Houston Texans had 13 interceptions and 18 total turnovers. Monday night, they forced two fumbles (recovered one) and had an INT (sorta). With the increased pressure that the Texans will bring in 2011, you raise the likelihood that a QB will hurry a throw, leading to an INT, or that he will fumble when hit. On top of that, in the division, the Texans face a QB who had 17 picks last year (Peyton Manning), another QB who had 17 in 14 games (Matt Hasselbeck), and a third who had 15 in 14 games (David Garrard). Alternatively, the last two in that last might be replaced by rookies. They also face Chad Henne (19 picks in 2010), Drew Brees (22), Jason Campbell (6 of his 8 picks coming against 3-4 defenses last year), Oh No Joe Flacco (10), Colt McCoy (9 in 8 games), Josh Freeman (6, but certain to regress to the mean in 2011), and two rookies (Andy Dalton and Cam Newton). Only Matt Ryan (9) can legitimately say that there's a below-average chance that he'll throw a pick in a given game.

On the forcing-fumbles side of the ledger, the Ravens, Titans, Jaguars, Bengals, Panthers, Buccaneers, Browns, and Dolphins all lost 10 or more fumbles last year. Point being, between the increase you typically see in turnover when Wade arrives and the penchant for turnovers that many of the Texans' 2011 opponents have, you're looking at a perfect storm for an impressive increase in turnovers created.

Well, then, what can we reasonably expect from the 2011 Texans' defense? Based both on all of the above as well as the similarities between the 2002 Falcons' D and the 2011 Texans' D, I think improvements in line with what Wade did in Atlanta are realistic expectations. While I'd love to see an improvement similar to what he did his first year in San Diego, I just don't see that happening with this team (though I would say that the Chargers' improvements represent the best-case scenario for what the Texans could do). So, my projections for the 2011 Texans: 5,200 yards allowed (last year 6,031), 20 points/game allowed (last year 26.7), 22 passing TDs allowed (last year 33), 13 rushing TDs allowed (last year 16), 19 interceptions (last year 13), 30 turnovers (last year 18), 300 first downs allowed (last year 354).

In 2010, those numbers would have made the defense slightly above average across the board. If the 2011 offense resembles the offenses of 2008 to 2010, a slightly above average defense will be more than enough to get this team into the postseason.

In Wade We Trust!

***

¹ Suck it, Jim Tressel, you filthy, cheating, unfashionable piece of monkey scrotum.

² As you read this, Shiloh Keo just whiffed on three more tackles.

³ If you happen to be Tim, feel free to replace the Hiedsieck with Coors Light. Also, if I am a tad hyperbolic in my comparison, it's only because I hate Frank Bush so very, very, very much. My therapist says that admitting these feelings will help me to deal with them. Or that's what I imagine he would say if I had a therapist. I'm rambling now, aren't I?

⁴ These culminated in the uber-stupid question of whether we should just try to trade Mario right now. It's questions like this that make people hate the internet.

2001-2010 All-Bears Team: Defensive Tackle #2

Steven Schweickert — Sat, 16 Jul 2011 20:00:34 -0000

As usual, it's time to reveal the results of Wednesday night's poll, and honestly, I wasn't surprised.

With 91% of the vote, Brian Urlacher leads of the team's LB depth chart.

Sometimes, you just have to do the poll knowing ahead of time what the results are going to be. This didn't disappoint. In a position the Chicago Bears are historically famous for, Urlacher's name is right up there with the greats.

Today though, we move on past that, back to the defensive line, as we wrap up the front four with the second defensive tackle spot. Follow me past the jump for the lowdown on who's being added to the list of candidates...

Ted Washington: A 1991 first-round draft pick of the 49ers (That's right. 1991.), Washington arrived to the Bears in 2001, where he notched his fourth Pro-Bowl season and was named an All-Pro. Washington had 1.5 sacks with four passes defended and 26 tackles with 8 assists. He only played two games in 2002, then resumed his career in New England.

Keith Traylor: A 1991 third-round pick of the Broncos (seeing a pattern here?), Traylor was signed before the 2001 season. Played in 41 games as a Bear with three sacks, one interception nearly returned for a touchdown (too bad it wasn't his 1997 interception return, which DID result in a touchdown), three forced fumbles and 68 tackles with 13 assists.

Anthony Adams: A second round pick of the 49ers in 2003, signed by the Bears before the 2007 season. No Pro-Bowl nominations, but over his four years as a Bear has 4.5 sacks, two passes deflected, two forced fumbles and 104 tackles with 24 assists.

And now we add to the list...

Tank Johnson: A rotational tackle for the Bears from 2004 to 2006 as a second-round draft pick, Tank has 9 sacks as a Bear with three passes defended, a forced fumble, and fifty tackles with twelve assists.

Ian Scott: A 2003 fourth-round pick of the Bears, played from 2003-2006 as generally a rotational player. Finished with 2.0 sacks as a Bear, one interception, 14 passes defended, and 69 tackles with 27 assists.

As always, if you disagree with any of the above choices, vote other and tell us who you want to nominate!

Poll

Who is the second defensive tackle on the 2001-2010 All-Bears Team?

Ted Washington

84 votes

Keith Traylor

53 votes

Anthony Adams

67 votes

Ian Scott

5 votes

Tank Johnson

58 votes

Other

8 votes

275 votes | Poll has closed