SB Nation - Andre Johnson

Seattle Seahawks Sleep through First Possession; Forfeit Game

John Morgan — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:34:35 -0000

Marcus Trufant blew coverage and Jordan Babineaux took a bad angle of pursuit, but Andre Johnson scored because Gary Kubiak saw a tendency in Seattle's coverage and exploited it to game-winning effect.

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I am profiling Aaron Curry this week, but between Curry posts, I want to talk a bit about the Seahawks in general. Seattle allowed a touchdown on the first play of the game. The Texans quick-snapped Seattle and Andre Johnson burned Marcus Trufant up the right sideline for an easy score. The quick snap made the play. Johnson was able to get around and past Trufant off the snap, and though Trufant didn't lose ground chasing Johnson, it didn't matter because he was already beat. Jordan Babineaux should have adjusted his angle to intercept Johnson, but even if he could have, the damage was mostly done. The Texans out game planned Seattle and left the Seahawks defensive brain trust looking like a big bag of DeHaven.

Seattle, continuing a season long trend, played awful football in the first set of possessions. Before he burned Trufant, Johnson pointed up and out, indicating "streak" to Matt Schaub. The Texans exploited a simple wrinkle to storm out to an early and pivotal lead*.

The Seahawks countered with no plan at all. Sean Locklear stood, protecting uncontested space as two defenders streaked off left end. Brian Cushing smashed Matt Hasselbeck before he could set. Moments like this inspire a "what the fuck?" reaction from fans. Beyond play calling, challenges and clock management, we most tangibly perceive the impact of coaches in the precision or sloppiness of the team. Seattle was playing rec football against a professional team. Whether Locklear was standing clueless because of poor discipline, poor coaching, zone blocking or a basic inability by the Seahawks to read and adjust to blitzes, the coaches, and especially Greg Knapp, own this failure.

Ray Willis jumped on second and pushed Seattle back five yards.

The next snap reached Hasselbeck cleanly, but he couldn't control the football, and, attempting to swing his body and hand off from his fingertips, he dropped the precariously held football. I watched that snap several times, and nothing looked abnormal until it reached Hasselbeck. That play set Seattle back another two yards. Seattle was lucky to recover it at all.

Seattle punted on third down. Excuse me, it ran a draw to Justin Forsett for seven. Seattle punted on fourth down. It gave up on third down.

If you are curious what that looks like in terms of win probability, behold:

Seattle's coaches, through the sheer force of their lack of preparation, schemes (like zone blocking), lack of discipline and conservative play calling on third down, had reduced Seattle's chances of winning to 23%. If someone wants to tell you that Seattle is not talented and couldn't have hoped to compete with Houston, go ahead and show them this graph. Seattle's talent must of been in the John when God was handing out coaches. This wasn't Curry being dirty, or Spencer being a simp, this was a team with a plan exploiting a team without a clue.

Jim Mora promised to take the next two days to scrutinize the offensive line. Well, Mr. Mora, I will take the next five days to scrutinize you. We might need to make some changes.

*Johnson said this about the touchdown: "Coming into the game we knew that their cornerbacks like to sit on routes," Johnson said. "So we were hoping that they would give us the coverage we were looking for, and they did."

Given Seattle's quarterback situation and that the Texans were playing at home, the impact of falling behind by a touchdown is actually underestimated by win probability. After two minutes of elapsed game clock, Seattle had almost already lost the game.

The Thief of the 2009 Season: The Running Game

Jake — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:24:42 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

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The 2009 season for the Houston Texans has been wildly inconsistent and disappointing. For the third straight year they find themselves looking at a 6-7 record and possibly a third consecutive .500 season. Although the numbers in the W and L columns are the same, the way they got there is different.

Back in the offseason, many Texans fans speculated that even a slightly improved defense combined with the impressive offense would catapult this team directly into the playoffs. Since the record is the same, the casual observer would assume that the defense failed to make this minor improvement, but they'd be wrong. Frank Bush's defensive squad is currently ranked 13th in total defense thus far after finishing 22nd last year.

So what gives? Matt Schaub is having a career year and doing his best to shake to "injury prone" description commonly associated with him. Andre Johnson is again leading the league in receiving yards and has equaled his touchdown total from last year. There's only one possibility left; the run game.

Last year Steve Slaton was seriously considered for the title of Offensive Rookie of the Year. 1,659 all-purpose yards made General Manager Rick Smith look like a genius for drafting Slaton in the third round despite wide spread beliefs that he was too small to be an every down back. This week Slaton was placed on the injured reserve with 437 rushing yards and 3.3 yards per attempt, a full yard and a half down from his average of 2008.

Slaton's sophomore slump was mostly mental prior to his season ending neck injury. Slaton didn't show the conviction to hit holes when they appeared and also lost 7 fumbles through just 11 games. To put it all on Slaton would be unfair though. As of last week, Slaton had 40 more receiving yards than last year averaging 15 more yards through the air a game than last season. The increased involvement of Slaton in the passing game was an attempt to get Slaton out in space, a strategy made necessary because of a lack of holes to run through.

Alex Gibbs is widely considered one of the best positional coaches in all of the NFL. Wherever he has coached offensive lines throughout his career, the rushing attacks have been good to dominant, including the Texans last year. The entire Texans offensive line starting all 16 games last year was a phenomenon that was new to even him though, and that continuity allowed those players to gel and produce fantastic results down the stretch.

The line has not been so lucky with injuries this year, however. Left guard Chester Pitts was placed on the injured reserve after week 2, and right guard Mike Brisiel followed after week 5. The team wasn't exactly dominating the line of scrimmage in those initial games of the season, but two of the four 100 yard rushing games came during that period. Coincidently, the Texans rushed for 100 yards in all but five games in 2008.

Chester Pitts will be an unrestricted free agent following this year. As long as it is determined that he is healthy, he needs to be resigned at all costs. His and Brisiel's absence has highlighted how substandard Chris Myers is at the center position. Myers continually loses at the point of attack while run blocking. If you want to see for yourself, watch him block throughout the Seattle game to see opposing defensive tackles push him aside. Then watch rookie Antoine Caldwell in the one play after Myers is hurt push his man five yards down the field.

That brings me to my next point. Why isn't Caldwell getting a shot at center? Myers not only loses regularly while run blocking, but he continues to have issues with larger defensive tackles while in pass protection. Myers has a great story after going from a practice squad to starting every game last year, but without good to great guards to help him he is simply too small to be effective.

Another factor that has adversely affected the Texans in general this year, especially in the run game, is lack of depth. Once Slaton started his mental problems, Gary Kubiak had Chris Brown, Arian Foster and Ryan Moats to rely on, which is woefully inadequate. Furthermore, Kasey Studdard and Chris White might not be terrible guards but when both are thrust into the lineup at the same time next to an inferior center, bad things will happen. All the same, an acquisition of a more quality interior lineman for next year couldn't hurt.

One last aspect that cannot be overlooked is the absence of Owen Daniels. Obviously Matt Schaub misses him as a target, but a tight end that can run routes and catch as well as run block is an enormous benefit for the run game. Daniels has deceiving blocking ability but his prolific talent as a receiver keeps a linebacker or a safety from attacking the line of scrimmage automatically. Both offensive tackles Duane Brown and Eric Winston have played well this year, but if OD clears out a linebacker that frees one of them to get to the next level in order to block downfield.

Keep in mind how inconsistent this team has been this year. The Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde halves, the fourth quarter collapses; they can all be partially attributed to the lack of running success. The Texans have been successful converting 3rd or 4th and 2 yards or less 64 percent of the time running to the right, and a terrible 44 percent running up the middle. No matter how successful you are with the pass, if you continually live by the sword, you will eventually die by the sword. Take for example Matt Schaub's 13 interceptions. That sounds a little high until you take into account that equals one INT for every 36.4 attempts. That's still a little high, but when opposing defenses know that you have to pass to move the ball whether you have a lead or not, it stacks the deck against you.

Gary Kubiak has come under intense scrutiny because of game situations that have cost the Texans several games near the end. Kubiak finally got a better defense just to lose his running game. Last year's average of 115 yards per game would be the fourth best rushing output for this year's team. I'm trying to avoid the apologist angle, but if the running game was even close to last year's, I don't think that we would be discussing the jeopardy of Kubiak's future. Even yesterday's offensive outpouring included only 85 yards on the ground. In my opinion, Bob McNair should worry more about the replacement of a few offensive lineman and running backs, rather than a head coach.

New York Jets Pass Defense vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pass Offense

John B — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 21:03:42 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

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Rookie quarterback melts down. That was the story last week for Tampa. We know how they feel. In his first four starts, though, Josh Freeman had looked pretty good for a rookie with a 7 to 5 touchdown to interception ratio. Accuracy had been something of an issue as it is with many rookies. However, Freeman offered a glimpse of what he may become two weeks ago with a 20 for 29 250 yard game against Atlanta. You may remember I was against taking Freeman in the Draft last April because he threw a ton of interceptions in college and seemed to have a high bust factor. He's given the Bucs room for cautious optimism this year.

I tend to think a second straight rough week is more likely than a bounce back this week. This is a really good Jets defense that will throw looks at him he has never seen. He's also going to have to do without his top wide receiver in any likely scenario. Our friends at Buc Em seem to think Antonio Bryant will be able to hold his own against Revis. I respectfully disagree with our friends. As they point out, Revis shut down Andre Johnson and Randy Moss. Is there anything Bryant can do that Moss or Johnson can't do better? I don't think so. I understand the pass rush does aid corners, but the reverse is also true. Part of the reasons the Jets have had so impressive rushing the passer has been that the coverage has held when blitzes have been picked up, which gives rushers extra time to get to the quarterback.

The Bucs will probably have Freeman focus on Kellen Winslow to make his throws safe. Winslow is Tampa's leading receiver with 58 receptions and 633 yards. This could be a game for Kerry Rhodes to reassert himself. I'm not sure I like the matchup between Winslow and Eric Smith. Winslow's way more athletic.

Beyond that, it's not clear what Tampa has in the passing game. Both Michael Clayton and Sammie Stroughter are battling injuries and quite possibly could miss the game, which would leave Maurice Stovall and his 18 receptions in the starting lineup. With Revis on Bryant, the Jets can scheme their coverage around Winslow because Lito Sheppard should be able to handle his assignment without much help.

Another problem will be protection. Tampa Bay's tackles, Jeremy Trueblood and Donald Penn, and center Jeff Faine are all in the top seven at their position in terms of pressures allowed. This could force the rookie to make a lot of mistakes. Guard Davin Joseph in in the top five while Jeremy Zuttah is in the top fifteen. It's a young line that is still a work in progress.

Six-Pack of Hu-Dey: Time for a new contract extension for Marvin Lewis?

Kirkendall — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:11:27 -0000

Welcome to this week's Six-Pack of Hu-Dey. Today Jay McDonnell joins us. I (Josh Kirkendall, the Alpha Male) discusses why the Bengals should give Marvin Lewis a contract extension, why Leon Hall should be grouped with the league's elite cornerbacks and I ask whether the team's three-tackle rotation at right tackle should be changed.

Jay says that it's time to cut Daniel Coats, that it's time for Bob Bratkowski to become less predictable and that fans of our divisional foes (ah hum, the Steelers) should give a little respect to the Bengals this season.

Let's get to it.

The Bengals give Marvin Lewis another contract extension after this season. I believe in two things. If the moon had never existed, the complex living organisms that exist today simply don't exist either. I also believe that Marvin Lewis has developed a talent rebuilding teams. Theoretically, it would be nice that rebuilding projects were spaced out more with the Bengals and that the train keeps rolling year, after year, after year. Realistically, even organizations that pump out winners like the Patriots or the St... St... St... Steelers need periods to rebuild themselves. Marvin Lewis is now in his seventh season, finishing his second rebuilding project. This, just perhaps, could be his masterpiece.

After going 1-11-1 in 2008, the Bengals have remarkably won 13 of their next 16 games. These changes include, but are far from being limited to, a deep understanding of the team's personnel. Most notably, Lewis revised the team's entire philosophy to a powerful rush offense and a tremendously performing defense. This will be his second rebuilding project after taking on a team that was 2-12 in 2002 and delivering four straight non-losing seasons and a playoff appearance in 2005.

I really believe that Lewis, like any NFL player, is getting better every season. I'm not just talking about his record either. Controversy is being handled with ease. Adversity is a distant thing of the bitter past with this team. Even his draft picks are improving. And when the team is down and out (ala, 2008), they unified and matured like we've never seen, into this group that we're damned proud of in 2009.

Lewis' existing contract expires after the 2010 season -- the same time the CBA expires, which may be a factor in NOT giving him an extension. The Bengals' biggest mistake would be letting two people leave Cincinnati, namely Mike Zimmer and Marvin Lewis. Lewis could arguably be the most important of the two. After all, he's the face of this franchise.

Is it time to for Andre Smith to get his first start or is the three-tackle rotation working? Okay, I get it. Why mess with chemistry? Let's read into the facts. The Bengals are 9-3, sport the league's sixth best rushing offense and have allowed only 22 sacks (which is tied for eight-best in the league). Quite honestly, the Bengals offensive line is the most improved unit, of any unit, on this team. They deserve tremendous credit for the team's transition into one of the best AFC teams that's dismantled both teams that played in the 2008 AFC Championship game. Personal note: I still like writing that.

One of those success stories on the line is Dennis Roland, who has come from undrafted free agent, to starting right tackle, to the biggest guy in human history to go into motion causing safeties and outside linebackers to say under their breath, "oh f**k." Also, in truth, Roland is an accomplished run blocker, if not one of the better run blockers on this team.

But where he's strong with the rushing offense, he's weak in pass protection. At times he appears slow against defensive ends with a quick inside step. This also leads to the lack of communication or awareness when a stunt brings an outside linebacker or safety on a blitz. Slowly Anthony Collins has quietly won more playing time, especially on passing downs.

From our understanding, Andre Smith's playing time is growing. They started him slowly with basic packages and plays. As they expand the playbook for Smith, he'll keep experiencing an increase in playing time. Cincinnati's use of the jumbo packages (putting three, sometimes four offensive tackles on the line) has led to Cedric Benson's best rushing this year. Whatever the Bengals are doing with the offensive line, it's working.

So the question is should the Bengals keep doing what they're doing, or should they give Andre Smith his first NFL start soon?

Should the national media put Leon Hall in the same class as Darrelle Revis? The other day I had a healthy helping of Hamburger Helper that did a Flozell Adams on my stomach. With an older copy of ESPN shouting "hey, I'll help you kill some time," I flipped to an NFL report. Like it was destiny, I kid you not. One of those reports called Leon Hall "the irreplaceable cornerback". Look at the numbers of the receivers that he's shutdown.

Week	Receiver	Att	Comp	Yrds	TD	YPA
1	Brandon Marshall	2	0	0	0	0
2	Greg Jennings	4	0	0	0	0
3	Santonio Holmes	3	1	18	0	6.0
4	Braylon Edwards	1	0	0	0	0
5/9	Derrick Mason	4	1	12	0	3.0
6	Andre Johnson	6	4	39	0	6.5
7	Devin Hester	3	2	28	0	9.3

As I said, it was an older copy so that's where the list ends. We could go on and presume that Hall is strictly covering the opposing team's best wide receiver, but that would be factually incorrect. Leon Hall mostly lines up on the left and the opposing offenses can shift wide receivers anywhere on the field. Furthermore, when the Bengals call zone, he's not always covering a receiver; rather a specific area on the field. However, we do know that in the past four games against the Steelers, Raiders, Browns and Lions, only two receivers gained 80 yards receiving or more (Santonio Holmes with 88 yards and Calvin Johnson with 123 yards).

The Jets' Darrelle Revis is widely considered the best cover cornerback in the league. He leads everyone with 28 passes defensed with five interceptions. Hall is second with 22 passes defensed and four interceptions. At the rate that Leon Hall is shutting down opposing wide receivers he should without a doubt be considered in the elite group of cornerbacks in the league.

Want to know the most scary part? Johnathan Joseph could theoretically be in the same elite group. Third in the league with 21 passes defensed and five interceptions, Joseph is developing a nasty habit of being one hell of a tackling cornerback -- kind of in the league of Charles Woodson. Well, close to it at least.

Would it be a stretch to say that the Bengals have the league's best cornerback duo?

A decision needs to be made about Daniel Coats. At the start of the season the kicking game struggled, which cost the Bengals valuable points, putting the game in doubt and forcing us to constantly check our blood pressure. When executing an extra point or a field goal, the snap was either too high or mishandled due to a bad snap causing Shayne Graham to get out of sync. This led to missed field goals or extra points, weighing heavily on the outcome of the game. So to solve the problem the Bengals released Brad St. Louis and brought in little known long snapper Clark Harris to take over these duties. This seems to have largely solved the problem with the kicking game.

At the same time another problem exists with Tight Ends not being able to catch the ball, specifically Dan Coats who has dropped more passes in the end zone than any other receiver on the team. When he does catch it, the ball is prone to squirting out only to see it recovered by the opposition. These drops and fumbles have cost the Bengals as much as Brad St. Louis ever did.

The Bengals set the standard by releasing the usually reliable St. Louis, sending a statement that poor play is not acceptable. But somehow, they see fit to hang onto a tight end that cannot catch a ball that hits him in his hands over and over again. Yes, the tight end position is thin with Ben Utecht being released and Reggie Kelly out for the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon. That however is no excuse for hanging onto a player that is extremely inconsistent and costing the team valuable points. J.P. Foschi seems to have taken on the opportunity and showed that he is not only able to block, but able to catch and hang onto passes. The precedent was set with the release of St. Louis; with Foschi showing his worth I think it is time for the Bengals to continue their message that mediocrity is not acceptable. Cut Dan Coats.

It is time for the predictable Bratkowski to become unpredictable. Despite the Bengals 9-3 record and mostly the same ingredients of an offense that once established a reputation as being an explosive offense in the past, the Bengals have only one game this season where they routed a team by more than 20 points. The defense has been the unit doing the heavy lifting while the offense seems to only do what is necessary to win the game. To some extent that is fine, until they run into an offense that is able to put up points and quickly (read: the Minnesota Vikings). There appears however to be a reason the offense has not been as explosive as first thought.

In this article published on Cincinnati.com, Bob Bratkowski acknowledges that he is “getting a little too ‘run on first down, run on second” in his play calling. Really? When did he find this out? How many of us see his play calling develop a pattern that causes teams to load eight in the box on a weekly basis? Does he not see this and want to make some kind of adjustment?

This kind of play calling makes the Bengals offense predictable allowing the opposing defense to load up the box, trying to force the Bengals to be one dimensional. But so far, teams have been unable to accomplish this on a regular basis. There is a thought process that you keep calling the same play until the defense stops it. I am not saying this should continue, but I am sure Brat does this because it works and he will probably continue to do this until someone stops it. However, since Brat has recognized this problem I hope he is able to adjust and open up the passing game showing opposing defenses that predictability is no longer an issue.

How about a little respect from our division foes? My wife and I live in an area that somehow seems to have more Pittsburgh Steeler fans then those who support the local team, the Washington Redskins. We work with several Steeler fans as well. These fans are as loyal as any. They will defend their team no matter the record and performance. But when the discussion turns to how the Bengals have surged ahead of the Steelers, they immediately run behind the 6 Super Bowl Championships and how they won two of the past four. They even cite how they qualified as a wild card team in 2005 and went on to win the Super Bowl, never mind the fact that Carson Palmer had his knee torn up by the Steelers.

The results of this season are not new to those fans; they have suffered through tough seasons following Super Bowl appearances dating back to 1996 against the Dallas Cowboys. Now that the Steelers are struggling and their fans are watching their playoff hopes fade, those fans seem to refuse to accept the fact the Bengals are the better team this season. The Steeler fans my wife and I have come across have shown a bit of arrogance and seem to expect to make the playoffs despite the heavy odds against them. With their current record of 6-6, a playoff appearance seems slim.

The Bengals have the AFC North pretty much sewn up with the magic number being one. Ask any Steeler fan though, and they will tell you how they are going to make the playoffs because of the soft schedule remaining. Well, I have some bad news for those Steeler fans that visit our fair web blog to read what we may have to say. The Steelers are not going to make the playoffs. After losing four straight games and giving up 4th quarter leads in three of those games, the vaunted defense has proved itself unable to protect a lead. This, of course, does not bode well for the defending Super Bowl Champs any chance their fans insist they still have to enter the playoff club in 2009.

BRB's Comcastic Red Zone Review: Texans v. Jaguars

Tim — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 23:24:59 -0000

Brought to you by Comcast's Red Zone Channel, a quick look at how your Houston Texans fared in the red zone last Sunday in the latest punch to the gut (courtesy of the Jaguars):

Trips to Red Zone: 4
Scores in Red Zone: 3 (TD by Chris Brown, FG by Kris Brown, TD by Andre Johnson)
Red Zone Efficiency: 75%

Anyone care to guess what the halfback pass efficiency rate was?

Texans vs Jaguars coverage

Schaub Plans To Play Sunday And Andre Johnson Wants To Retire a Texan

Mike Kerns — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 16:06:14 -0000

Everyone can stop worrying about Andre Johnson possibly becoming frustrated and wanting out of Houston. On 610 AM this morning, he stated his desire to be here and retire here.

Matt Schaub also said that he would rehab his injured shoulder and plans to start on Sunday against Seattle.

You can hear the podcasts here. Certainly worth a listen.

Post-Game Breakdown: Texans Lose To Jaguars...Again

Tim — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 23:05:04 -0000

Four losses in a row. To Indianapolis. To Tennessee. To Indianapolis. And yesterday afternoon, to Jacksonville. From a 5-3 start and talk of playoff contention to a 5-7 record and virtual elimination from relevance. Your Houston Texans finish their 2009 campaign with a 1-5 record in the AFC South. That's failure.

On to the details of the latest crime against the Texans fan base:

1. The single good thing to come out of yesterday's disaster was Matt Schaub refusing to let a little thing like a dislocated shoulder keep him out of the game. Had Brett Favre been the guy who was driven into the ground, we'd be treated to a full week of praise for Favre about his grit, toughness, commitment to his teammates, excellence, and leadership. Since it's Schaub, it won't merit much talk outside of Houston and/or fantasy owners. Thus, allow me to pick up the slack on this one.

After Schaub went down on the first play from scrimmage, I never thought for a second he'd be back and was resigning myself to the remainder of the 2009 season playing out with Rex Grossman under center, followed by a stint in rehab for me come January. But then...with about seven minutes left in the first half, there was Schaub, warming up on the sideline. I couldn't believe it. From the second he went down, judging from the way he went down and then the way he was holding his arm as he left the field, I thought Schaub separated his shoulder. Remember--Schaub missed the last few weeks of the 2007 season with an identical injury. Not this time. Schaub re-entered the game and very nearly brought the Texans back. It showed a resolve we hadn't ever seen from him, and it should put to rest any questions about his resilience. If Schaub can play, he will play. People can criticize him, but not for being soft. The guy's a gamer.

2. Good thing that Schaub's a gamer, too, because Rex Grossman looked awful. I don't even want to talk about it anymore.

3. Once again, Ryan Moats shows a burst that we haven't seen from a running back all year long. And once again, I'm sure he'll be banished to the bottom of the depth chart for reasons that elude me. Can anyone explain why Moats doesn't get more carries? Anyone?

4. Of all the things that puzzled/enraged me about yesterday's game, the most puzzling/infuriating was Chris Brown being in the game on the very next series after he tried to shot-put the ball in Joel Dreessen's general direction. How is it that Kubes can bench Steve Slaton and/or Ryan Moats for turning the ball over but not apply the same zero tolerance policy on C. Brown?

5. I appreciate those of you who think the halfback pass was a good call at the time. I vehemently disagree, and I think it's just the latest example of Kyle Shanahan and/or Gary Kubiak trying to get cute. Just as I had no clue why the Texans called a pass on third down at the IND 15 with slightly more than a minute to go in the first half last week, I'll never understand why the Texans would ask Chris Brown to make that play at that point in the game. It was a truly awful decision, trumped only by even more awful execution.

6. Although he coughed one ball up that turned into an interception, I continue to be impressed by David Anderson. Seems like he very quietly is good for a big third down conversion every week.

7. The absence of Owen Daniels makes Andre Johnson's consistency that much more unfathomable.

8. I never had anything against Chris White. Until yesterday. His false start, late in the third quarter, as the Texans prepared to go for it on 4th and 2 from the JAC 9, was as back-breaking a penalty as I've seen in some time.

9. I mentioned this a few weeks back in the PGB, and I'll reiterate it now: Is anyone else amazed at how no one has taken Alex Gibbs to task this season for the performance of the offensive line? They haven't been able to run block all year, and false starts seem to occur at an alarming rate, especially during this four-game swoon.

10. Why does Frank Bush EVER put the Texans into a zone? It never works. Ever. It's the schematic equivalent of raising a white flag.

11. Judging from the way Gus Johnson was lavishing praise on Dunta Robinson, I'm firmly of the belief that (1) Gus is on Dunta's payroll and/or (2) Gus hasn't watched the Texans play at all this year. The latter possibility is particularly troubling, considering that Gus Johnson and Steve Tasker have called several Texans games this year.

12. Theory: There is not a single member of the Texans secondary who would start for a playoff team except perhaps Bernard Pollard. Agree or disagree?

13. There aren't a whole lot more depressing things as a fan than to watch your defense get gashed via the run when everyone watching knows exactly what's coming, who's getting the ball, and a stop is absolutely crucial to avoid losing the game. It's demoralizing to watch. I can't even imagine what it has to be like for DeMeco Ryans & Co. The odd part is that the Texans did a fine job keeping Maurice Jones-Drew in check all the way up until that last drive. When they absolutely needed it the most, they couldn't do it.

14. Even though the Texans managed to sack David Garrard on four (4) occasions, I never really felt like they got to him. Just like last time, Garrard made the plays when he needed to, regardless of what the numbers say.

15. The Jaguars did everything they possibly could to give this game to the Texans, and the Texans refused to do anything about it. This was the sloppiest game I've seen two teams play in a good long while.

16. The calls for Kubiak's head are getting louder and louder. Not coincidentally, each loss and absurd playcall makes defending him harder and harder. JMay wrote a great FanPost on the topic, and I'll be writing a longer piece myself in the coming days on the subject. For now, I'll leave you with this thought...if you can't get a proven Super Bowl winning coach, are you content with replacing Kubes with someone who has no head coaching experience?

The Seahawks are next on the schedule. Here's hoping that Reliant doesn't look like Jacksonville Municipal Stadium on Sunday.

Texans vs Jaguars coverage

Football Outsiders and the 49ers: Player Stats through Week 12

Florida Danny — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 15:00:23 -0000

Yesterday, I noted some pretty promising statistical improvements for the 49ers' OFF. Today, we'll see whether stats and rankings for the Niners' offensive players have also improved as one would expect; or perhaps the whole is greater than the sum of its parts? To this end, I'll be adding the same kind of change stats I've started presenting in my other posts this week. Again, it's the direction of change, not necessarily its magnitude, that's more important from my perspective.

This week, QBs need a total of at least 90 passes to qualify as having valid FO stats, RBs need at least 96 carries, WRs need at least 38 targets, and TEs need at least 18 targets. Therefore, the players I'll be breaking down this week are Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, and Vernon Davis. I'll also, of course, be presenting FO stats for the OL, the defensive front 7 (DF7), and the secondary.

QUARTERBACKS

Here are Smith's stats through 208 passes this season (bold = ranked 8th or better [top 25% of starters]; italics = ranked 25th or worse [bottom 25% of starters]):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Pass	0.20	24	0.20	25	0.00	+1
YAR per Pass	0.50	23	0.12	25	+0.38	+2
EYds per Pass	5.31	25	5.23	25	+0.08	0
Yds per Pass	5.78	25	5.81	24	-0.03	-1
DVOA	-7.9%	24	-7.9%	25	0.0%	0
VOA	-3.2%	23	-9.2%	25	+6.0%	+2

As you can see, the only things that have showed any meaningful improvement are Smith's unadjusted stats, YAR/P and VOA. Not surprisingly, the 49ers' unadjusted OFF Pass VOA is what showed meaningful improvement among their team stats. Obviously, Smith threw every pass against the Jaguars, so this is kind of a "duh" finding. However, the important point is that Smith and the Niners had a productive passing attack against JAX, but more than just "productive" is what was expected against the 31st-ranked JAX pass DEF. Nevertheless, you have to crawl before you walk, so Smith and the Niners' pass OFF need to pass well against bad pass DEFs before he/they can start passing well against good DEFs.

After the jump, I'll present and discuss the rest of the stats ...

RUNNING BACKS

Here are Gore's stats through 128 carries so far this season (bold = ranked 8th or better; italics = ranked 25th or worse):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Run	0.48	20	0.58	17	-0.10	-3
YAR per Run	0.30	25	0.48	20	-0.18	-5
EYds per Run	4.20	22	4.38	22	-0.18	0
Yds per Run	5.03	5	5.46	3	-0.43	-2
DVOA	3.3%	19	6.2%	16	-2.9%	-3
VOA	-0.9%	24	3.6%	18	-4.5%	-6

Interesting, eh? Gore's stats - adjusted and unadjusted - got worse across the board, yet, the 49ers' Rush OFF VOA improved after the Jags game and their Rush OFF DVOA stayed essentially the same. What gives?

Well, there are two phenomena at play here. First, realize that play-by-play efficiency as a team is compared to the average of other NFL teams, whereas play-by-play efficiency as an individual is compared to the average of other players at that position. So, it seems as though the Niners' running game is getting better relative to the rest of the league, but Gore's running is getting worse relative to other RBs. Second - and this should be far more obvious - Gore's not the only player carrying the ball in the Niners' run OFF. As it specifically relates to the Jags game, remember that Delanie Walker had an 11-yard carry on 2nd & 2, and Alex Smith had a 10-yard scramble on 2nd & 7, both of which are considered highly efficient plays according to DVOA.

So, keep these two points in mind as we move forward in the post. They're going to reappear a few more times before we're done.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Here are Crabtree's stats through 44 targets so far this season (bold = ranked 16th or better; italics = ranked 49th or worse):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Target	-0.43	67	-0.22	60	-0.21	-7
YAR per Target	-0.02	61	0.03	58	-0.05	-3
EYds per Target	5.16	71	5.47	67	-0.31	-4
Yds per Target	7.86	36	8.11	33	-0.25	-3
DVOA	-18.9%	69	-15.7%	62	-3.2%	-7
VOA	-13.1%	62	-12.3%	58	-0.8%	-4

Like Gore, we see decline across the board when it comes to Crabtree. However, you'll notice that each of his adjusted stats declined more drastically than his unadjusted stats. So, his stats display similar opponent-dependent characteristics to that of Smith. Hope you're sensing a theme here. Regardless, though, I'll say the same thing I did last week: I'm not worried about Crabs, no matter what the stats say.

Here are Morgan's stats through 51 targets so far this season:

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Target	-0.41	65	0.16	55	-0.57	-10
YAR per Target	0.10	57	0.42	50	-0.32	-7
EYds per Target	5.67	67	6.56	54	-0.89	-13
Yds per Target	6.82	55	7.09	51	-0.27	-4
DVOA	-18.0%	66	-10.5%	55	-7.5%	-11
VOA	-11.5%	58	-7.3%	50	-4.2%	-8

OK. This is a little bit more problematic for me because these are massive declines across the board. It almost defies belief that Morgan's EYds/T can drop that much from targets 44 to 51 on the season. I still say that Morgan will be fine in the long-run as a productive #2 WR once he learns his new position. However, what his stats show is that, contrary to how the saying goes, a rising tide does not necessarily lift all boats. Having only 2 successful plays in 8 targets, and only 1 reception go for more than 10 yards, against the 29th-ranked pass DEF against #2 WRs pretty much defines inefficiency.

TIGHT ENDS

Here are VD's stats through 92 targets (bold = ranked 8th or better; italics = ranked 25th or worse):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Target	1.18	18	1.08	17	+0.10	-1
YAR per Target	1.21	18	1.10	19	+0.11	+1
EYds per Target	7.80	19	7.53	21	+0.27	+2
Yds per Target	7.28	19	7.24	22	+0.04	+3
DVOA	11.8%	18	10.4%	18	1.4%	0
VOA	12.2%	18	10.6%	18	1.6%	0

If I could call Alex Smith "the #25 QB in the NFL" last week based on the consistency of his rankings, then I can dub VD "the #18 TE in the NFL." Of course, that's far more tongue-in-cheek than my Smith evaluation. We all know VD's much better than his stats show, and, after last week's post, we should all know that the reason these stats are what they are is because VD's tied for 2nd-most-targeted TE in the NFL. So bottom line is, don't freak out.

What is accurately reflected in the table is the fact that the Niners' overall pass OFF improvement has ridden the wave of VD (Aside: Sorry for all the nautical references today. I'm trying to give the STD references a week off.). It's clear that, based on his number of targets, the pass OFF goes as VD goes; based on his increasing EYards/T, VD goes as his new downfield-passing QB goes; and based on his DVOA, the Niners' level of efficiency in the passing game goes as throwing the ball downfield to VD goes.

Finally, as this is my last chance to really mention it, I'll just also quickly note that the Smith did a really good job of spreading the ball around against JAX. Specifically, among the 3 pass catchers I've detailed today, VD had 9 targets, Morgan had 8 targets, and Crabtree had 7 targets. For sure, this is a pleasant development. Having 3 legitimate options in the passing attack definitely beats having 1, which seemed to be the case just 8 weeks ago.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Here's the OL's directional run-blocking chart (bold = top 8; italics = bottom 8):

In my enthusiasm over Adjusted BS Rate, I totally forgot to mention the fact that the 49ers' OL is now ranked dead last in the league. Granted, their actual ALY only dropped 0.02 yards per carry, but it's still an ignominious achievement. Once again, though, it's interesting to see how, although the Niners' Rush OFF DVOA has gotten considerably better since Smith took over at QB, the OL deserves very little, if any, of the credit. This doesn't really fit well with my theory related to the run-blocking benefits of increased shotgun, so I'm pretty much stumped. All I can think of is that perhaps (a) more of the rush OFF's short gains are ending up as "successful plays" because of the down and distance, and/or (b) adjusting line yards for the caliber of an opponents' DF7 is different than adjusting Rush OFF DVOA for the caliber of an opponents' rush DEF overall. In other words, it's déjà vu all over again in this post.

With respect to directional ALY, not much has changed. The OL continues to improve in LE ALY, but that's still most likely due to a regression to the mean; and the same thing probably goes for RE ALY given they don't run the ball in that direction very much either. Otherwise, the glaring problem remains. Jimmy Raye loves to run the ball up the middle despite the fact that his OL absolutely sucks blocking in that direction.

DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN

Here's the DF7's directional run-stopping chart (bold = top 8; italics = bottom 8):

The big changes here occurred on runs up the middle and behind RT. Essentially, the DF7 got struck by a triple whammy of (a) having JAX run the ball fewer times in those directions than the 49ers were previously accustomed to, (b) having those runs go for more yardage than the 49ers were previously accustomed to allowing, and (c) having those yards allowed come via the directions in which the otherwise-top-tier JAX OL were least proficient. Add those 3 things up and you have a DF7 whose C/G ALY ranking dropped 6 spots (up 0.40 yards per carry), and whose RT ALY ranking dropped 3 spots (up 0.13 yards per carry). At least in this instance the changes in player stats matched the changes in team stats: remember, the Niners' Rush DEF DVOA got 1.4% worse after the JAX game.

DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD

Finally, here's the chart showing stats for the secondary against various intended receivers (bold = top 8; italics = bottom 8):

Pretty much everything is the same here, including the fact that starting Dre Bly didn't seem to adversely affect the Niners' pass DEF against opposing #1 WRs. Of course, defending Mike Sims-Walker is just a tad bit easier than defending Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, and Greg Jennings. There is one descent-sized change, though: DVOA against receiving RBs. Another week, another game full of screen passes that gouge the 49ers' pass DEF.

BOTTOM LINE

OK, so through 11 games, we can draw the following conclusions about several players on the 2009 49ers:

Alex Smith: Still better than Hill, though not as instrumental in the pass OFF's improvement as you might think.
Frank Gore: Making the 49ers' run OFF better, but not making his own stats better.
Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan: Give them time.
Vernon Davis: Instrumental in the pass OFF's improvement.
The OL: Now officially the worst in the league.
The DF7: Great when not encountering triple whammies.
The secondary: Still better without Nate Clements; not better with Dre Bly.

Later this morning: 49ers-Seahawks game matchup.

**DVOA, DYAR, EYds, and ALY statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Game Preview Week 13: Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jonathan Loesche — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 20:01:50 -0000

Houston Texans(5-6)	Week #13	Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5)
	VS.

Date:	December 6th, 2009	Location:	Jacksonville, FL
Time:	4:15 PM EST	Stadium:	The Jack
TV:	CBS	Favorite:	Pick Em
Radio:	Click Here	Over/Under:	46.5
Weather:	High 50's with a slight chance of rain	Injury Report:	Click Here
SBN Coverage:	Battle Red Blog	Coverage Map	Click Here

Sorry for not getting this up earlier, and sorry for the lack of front page stuff in general over the last few days. Anyway, the Jaguars come back limping from San Francisco to take on a Houston team playing for it's season. It's no secret the Texans have been a disappointment this season. Expected to go to the playoffs and starting 5-3, the Texans have dropped three straight divisional games and virtually sunk their season.

The Jaguars are still in the thick of the playoff race, and despite all of the negativity surrounding the debacle in SF, would still be in the playoffs as a sixth seed if the playoffs started today. With games against the Colts and Patriots still to come, the Jaguars need to capitalize on all of their remaining games.

Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense

First and foremost, the Jaguars offensive line has to rebound from easily it's worst showing in weeks. Eugene Monroe turned his season around with a solid performance against Mario Williams back in Week 3, and not having to deal with Super Mario would be great for David.

Former All-Pro CB Duanta Robinson has been woefully under performing for the Texans. Going up against Mike Sims-Walker and Torry Holt, I would expect the Jaguars to actively target Robinson's side as much as they can.

The Texans do feature one of the best up and coming players in the league with LB Brian Cushing. The last two weeks the Jaguars have struggled with linebackers keying in on Maurice Joens-Drew, and I would expect to see much of the same from Cushing.

Speaking of Maurice Jones-Drew, it would be nice to see him get back to his old self. He has been held to just 141 yards and 1 touchdown over the last two weeks. He still needs two touchdowns to break Fred Taylor's franchise record, and is still a manageable distance from setting the franchise's single season rushing record.

Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense

I'm not going to really bother much with the Jags run defense and Texans run offense because we all expect to see Matt Schaub throw it 40+ times on Sunday.

It is very simple for the Jaguars defense, they don't have a pass rush and they lack Rashean Mathis, one of the only corners who could effectively cover Andre Johnson. Derrick Harvey has been showing some signs of life recently, but he needs to actually get to the quarterback occasionally.

The Jaguars are still sitting at 10 sacks and are running out of chances for setting the record for futility in that department. Good thing we still have Cleveland on our schedule.

Offensively, the Texans rank 3rd in the NFL in throwing the ball. Matt Schaub has finally been healthy for an entire year and it has shown. The Texans sport one of the best WRs in the NFL in Andre Johnson, and covering him is going to be the top priority for the Jaguars.

Expect to see alot of double or even triple coverage on Johnson to make up for the lack of pass rush on Schaub. The Jaguars do catch a break by not having to deal with All-Pro TE Owen Daniels, who would've perhaps been one weapon too many for the Jags to handle.

Player On The Hot Seat

The Jaguars Offensive Line

After a disasterous performance in San Francisco, the big boys up front need to get their heads screwed on straight and give David time to throw the ball. The Texans are going to put up points, and we'll need to as well.

Prediction

Jaguars 31
Texans 27

The Texans race out to a 17-3 lead before a series of events only the Texans can manage to pull off transpire. MJD scores his first TD, the Texans fumble the ensuing kick off, taken in one play later by MJD from 23 yards out. After some back and forth, Torry Holt finally gets his first TD as a Jaguar with 2:33 to play. Gary Kubiak decided to challenge, but the play is upheld. The lost time out costs the Texans as Andre Johnson catches the ball at the 8 yard line only to be tackled in bounds as the clock runs out.

Time for the Road to the NFC Championship to Take a Detour

ericj69 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:58:09 -0000

After Sunday night's game, they'll need to stick these outside of University of Phoenix Stadium if people are looking for the road to the Super Bowl.

View full size photo »

The Arizona Cardinals, defending NFC Champions, are well on their way to winning their second consecutive NFC West title this year.

If you would have read me that sentence two years ago, I would have told you to send me the link to the rest of the article from The Onion, since it was obviously a joke. (If you had read me that sentence in 2001, I would have just assumed you knew nothing about the NFL since Arizona was obviously in the NFC East. You hypothetical dumbass from the past.)

But it's true. Arizona somehow made the Super Bowl last year. The same team that Tarvaris Jackson torched for an easy Minnesota 35-14 win in Arizona last year. And even after Vince Young gave Matt Leinart an acid flashback of the 2006 Rose Bowl last week, the Cardinals are still perched atop their division by two games. (Note: I totally didn't mean to make the lame "Cardinals/perched" pun there, but I'm not surprised that I accidentally did.) Technically, the road to the NFC Championship still runs through Glendale, AZ.

But only until Sunday night, if everything goes well for the Vikes. A win for the Purple means the road to Super Bowl XLIV takes a detour away from Arizona.

If the Vikings prevail in the desert, they'll guarantee that Arizona would get the third seed in the NFC at the very best, assuring the Cardinals will have to go on the road to make it back to the Super Bowl. (Yes, I realize they won a road game to get there last year, but they still won the NFC Championship at home. Just stay with my flimsy detour theme here. I posted a picture of a sign and everything.)

But just like creating real detours, we shouldn't expect this one to go smoothly. Yes, Favre is exponentially better than T-Jax. However, we're not the only team that has a Social Security-eligible quarterback that's still playing well. I know Kurt Warner missed last week's game, but I'd be surprised if he didn't play based on what I've heard this week. We have a strong core of receivers in El Sid, Percy, B-Twice, and Shank. But Larry Fitzgerald is still the best receiver in the game (you can mention Andre Johnson here, but he's tied with Fitz at the very best). Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston are nothing to sneeze at either. If ever there was a game for Antoine Winfield to make his glorious return to the field, it's this one.

And would you look at this--the Cardinals even brought a little bit of a running game this year. They even average more than 2.3 yards a carry! Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower aren't greatest backfield committee ever (that's Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson and Marcus Allen, of course) but they've added a dimension to Arizona that wasn't really there last year.

Most of us know that stopping the Cards' offense will be tough. But what about the D? From what I've seen of Arizona and learned from the guys over at Revenge Of The Birds, they're better than the numbers show. They're 24th in total yards, but still in the top half of the league in points allowed and tied for fourth in sacks. Defensive lineman Darnell Dockett could give our line some trouble. Karlos Dansby leads the team in tackles and will be a tough test for our running game. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is not only annoying to type out, he's also annoying to play against. If Favre can't duplicate his zero-interception November, DRC is always a threat to take picks back to the house. I'd still take Minnesota's defense over Arizona's any day, but it doesn't mean we'll be able to duplicate the easy day in the desert we had last year.

While it would be nice to take another step towards Dome-field advantage, it would also be good to get another victory against a winning team. The only issue the critics have taken with Minnesota this year is "who have they played?" To be honest, the critics have a point. As Bill Simmons said today in his article:

Combined record of the nine teams they've defeated this season: 39-71. Let's give them 2009 Winston Wolf Memorial "Don't Start Sucking Each Other's Popsicles Yet" status.

A win on the road over the 7-4 Cards would give us a little more credibility heading towards the playoffs.

Unfortunately, the detour from Arizona might go south to New Orleans even if Minnesota is victorious on Sunday. I'm sure most of you saw the Saints absolutely disassemble the Patriots on Monday night. The Saints offense is formidable to say the least, but that's not what worries me most about N'awlins. That Superdome crowd was absolutely BONKERS the entire game. Could you imagine them in an NFC Championship Game with the franchise's first Super Bowl appearance on the line? My ear drums are throbbing just thinking about it. Let's hope the Saints drop a couple games down the stretch so we can show them how loud the Metrodome can get in late January. But first thing's first--let's start the construction for the detour on Sunday!

Prediction: Vikings 31, Cardinals 24

The rest of my Week 13 NFL picks (home team in CAPS):

COLTS over Titans: These teams are six games apart in the standings, yet they may be the best two teams in the AFC right now. The Titans make an intriguing upset pick here--until you realize it's still Vince Young vs. Peyton Manning. Young is a winner, but he still throws like Uncle Rico.

Texans over JAGUARS: Would you ever pick either of these teams to win a game if your life depended on it? This game could a blowout either way and I can honestly say I wouldn't be surprised. Let's just move on before I change this pick like I already have six times.

Broncos over CHIEFS: The Chiefs as a team are as broken as Tiger Woods' Escalade. But don't tell that to Jamaal Charles, your 2009 Late-Season Fantasy Pickup From A Terrible Team MVP!

STEELERS over Raiders: The Steelers are on a three-game losing streak. If you had to pick an NFL team to play at home to break a three-game losing streak, wouldn't just about everyone pick the Raiders? I sure would.

Saints over REDSKINS: Yeah, that whole "Detour to Minnesota" theme of my column isn't going to get any help from Washington this week.

BENGALS over Lions: My Eliminator pick of the week--still alive at 12-0! If the Bengals lose two games in the easiest stretch of scheduling ever (Oakland-Cleveland-Detroit), they should be relegated to the UFL.

BEARS over Rams: Two weeks ago, the Seahawks came to the Dome and got pounded. They got to play the Rams the following week. Last week, the Bears came to the Dome and got embarrassed. They get to play the Rams this week. Call it the "NFL Scheduling Mercy Rule".

PANTHERS over Buccaneers: Jake Delhomme is out this week. Does that help or hurt Carolina's chances? Really, I'm serious. I've never even heard of Matt Moore until this week, but I can't imagine he'd be any worse.

Eagles over FALCONS: No Matty Ice for Atlanta this week. Which means they'll have to switch to McNabbelob Golden Light.

Chargers over BROWNS: I literally ran out of jokes to make about the Browns. So instead, I'll treat you to the best NFL theme song ever:

As a bonus, I'll also treat you to the Charger cheerleaders:

There--I bet you've forgotten all about those rotten Browns by now!

GIANTS over Cowboys: It's December. You know what that means Cowboy fans! Time for some melting down!

49ers over SEAHAWKS: Meh. I just need Vernon Davis and Frank Gore to have big weeks for me to clinch the regular season title in one of my fantasy leagues. So I'm picking San Fran.

Patriots over DOLPHINS: The Patriots don't lose two games in a row. I think it's a league rule or something.

Ravens over PACKERS: I have a bunch of Packer fan friends that are heading to Lambeau for this game. Please oh please, Baltimore, ruin their day for me!

Last week: 11-5

Season so far: 123-54 (including getting Thursday's game wrong)