SB Nation - Kevin Walter

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 14:03:21 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

21 days ago: Denver Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno (27) has his hand examined during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the New York Giants in Denver, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009. Denver won 26-6. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

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Happy Wednesday, and welcome to a day-late, dollar-short version of ST&NO. First of all, big up TJ for working hard to bring in his outstanding The Dude Abides... Stats That Don't Lie in a day early. I am a bit healthier on Tuesday as I write this, and I am going to see what I can get cranked out in one day, with moderate sneezing, and a heavy Day 1 of close workload in that pesky day job. I didn't take notes, and I didn't remember to record the Broncos game, so I am without a lot of detail this week, and will need to speak more generally than usual. No time to waste, so let's not waste any time. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. So I mentioned that I would be in the Constitution State, and that I'd be playing in a football game with my friend Tony, a diehard Giants fan. The morning game was fun, but I ended up pretty sore, for those who asked. It's tough playing once a year at the most.

As for the night game, well, my mom is not what you'd call a high-tech person. Every time I visit, without fail, there's some junk Coby brand DVD player she wants me to plug into some junk/old TV set without RCA inputs. (You have to drop like $40 on an RF modulator to run through coax, which is about 2.5 times the price of the DVD player.) The "how" of plugging in a DVD player is too daunting for my mom to even give it a try for herself. In her main TV-watching area, she has a 21ish-inch Symphonic brand LCD flat screen that I am sure came from Wal-Mart. Her equipment is garbage, but it works for her I guess. Law & Order SVU looks fine on it. (I don't mean to make fun of my mother; she just doesn't share my priorities, or general attitude toward spending a few extra bucks for quality gear.) It turned out to be moot anyway, because NFL Network is on a premium tier she doesn't subscribe to.

So, what to do? Well, Tony was still around. I asked if he wanted to go to a bar for the game, but he ended up inviting me to his parents' house to watch, which was cool. His dad, also Tony, is also a big Giants fan. I usually watch football alone, because I don't consider it to be a social activity. It's really kind of become my job, and I do best when I can take notes, and pause and rewind, and focus on being analytical. I will talk to my brother Chris sometimes during games, but that's annoying, because my DirecTV feed is always 2-3 seconds behind his, so he knows what happened before I do.

Last Thursday, I sat in the living room with Tony and Tony. Tony Version 2.0's mother, and his girlfriend Ana, were there for most of the first half. I like them both very much, but having women around for a Broncos game was a whole other level of different for me. Like, I don't think it has happened since I was married, and that ended Halloween 2007.

But I digest. (I just had a sandwich from Tomayydo Tomahhdo for lunch. It was excellent, as always.) Back to the lecture at hand. I'm watching this game with two Giants fans and their women, and I got it in my mind that I was going to be really respectful of the Giants one way or the other. It turned out I had to do so in the one way, and not the other, which made me happy. For me, it's easier to be gracious in victory than in defeat.

The Broncos dominated the Giants, and in my opinion, played their best all-around game of the season. Kyle Orton threw one bad ball that he'd like to have back. The Giants got one receiver wide open on a well-conceived rub play where Alphonso Smith and Andre' Goodman ran into each other. The line had those 3 stupid scoring-area false starts, and gave up one sack, on the opening play of the game, and it came from the free rusher on a blitz (which puts it on coverage and Orton). Other than those few plays, and a sense that Correll Buckhalter went down a little too easily a couple of times, I wouldn't change much of anything.

McGeorge asked after the San Diego game if I still stood by my 11-5 prediction. I wanted to see how the Broncos did against New York, but after that, I sure do. The Giants game showed the exact formula that the Broncos can use to beat just about anybody. On defense, it was coverage, pressure, and gap control. On offense, it was sharp routes, great catches and good throws, combined with hard running and excellent run blocking. If the Broncos play like that, they will crush the Raiders and Chiefs, and end up with a minimum of 10 wins. They match up pretty well with both the Colts and the Eagles, too, and I think they can win 1 out of those 2 games. Here is my rationale for saying they match up well.

Indianapolis - The Colts are not a complete team, but nobody really is in the salary cap era. What the Colts are is a team which is constructed around the idea that their QB is going to give them leads, and that their defense will therefore need to protect leads. What does that mean? Well, they value zone coverage and pressure from their DEs. If you make them defend both the pass and the run on any given snap, you can score on them without a lot of trouble. Because the Colts can't stop even an average running game with 7 men, their SS Melvin Bullitt runs down into the box very frequently, and the Colts are therefore susceptible to being beaten over the top on play action, if you can run against them. It was no accident how the Texans got out to a big lead Sunday. They ran and threw, and had the Colts defense off balance early. The Colts rookie CBs couldn't handle Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, and I'm here to tell you, they have nothing for Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal either. The Texans can't handle Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, and the Broncos can, assuming Ryan Harris is fully back by then. The Broncos can block the Colts DEs, beat their CBs, and move their front seven in the running game.

Remember this point. Just because the Colts are 3^rd in scoring defense (just behind Cincinnati and Dallas, and just ahead of Denver) doesn't mean they have a good defense. They really don't. They have a defense which is equipped to take care of leads by making teams gain yards in smallish chunks, and by sacking QBs with edge pressure. That, combined with Peyton Manning's constant use of the whole play clock leads to low-scoring days by opposing offenses

The trick, of course, is defending the Colts, and that's where the Broncos have historically struggled. This Broncos team, however, is better equipped than any in recent memory to have some success. The Colts do best when they can run the ball, and I like the Broncos' chances to stop their running game with 7 ½ men (meaning Brian Dawkins is starting in a cover-2 shell, but keying run first). By stopping the Colts run, you take away their play action stuff, which makes Peyton Manning beat you with perfect throws, and his receivers beat you with perfect routes. Which, of course, they can do, but it's a harder go than the other way. I like the secondary matchups pretty well for the Broncos, from Champ Bailey against Reggie Wayne, Andre' Goodman against Pierre Garcon, Ty Law or Alphonso Smith against Austin Collie, and either Law or Josh Barrett against Dallas Clark. The Clark matchup is key against the Colts, and I like Law and Barrett, depending on down and distance, better than anybody else's sub-package guys in the NFL for covering a big-time TE.

I'm not saying the game will be a runaway Broncos win, just that I can easily make a case for them TO win, and that I think they CAN win. What do you think?

Philadelphia - This is a game the Broncos SHOULD win. The Eagles are a lot like the Giants, from both schematic and personnel perspectives. From the angle of attacking Philly's defense, you can outside zone them to death, like the Broncos did so well against the Giants. That's because their LBs tend to be bigger, slower guys who struggle a bit to cover the lateral width of the field. Will Witherspoon is an exception to that archetype, but Chris Gocong, Joe Mays, and Moise Fokou are vertical players.

You have to block the Eagles' blitz packages, and it really helps to stay on schedule against them. That's a bit easier than it is against a Baltimore or Pittsburgh, because you can run the ball. (They're currently ranked 8^th against the run, but trust me, you can gash them if you try a little.) In the passing game, you'd like to exploit Asante Samuel, who bites on a ton of double moves. Yes, he's a ball-hawk, but he doesn't shut anybody down. He can catch extremely well, and he's an excellent tackler, but he's just an okay coverage player. Sheldon Brown is kind of the opposite; better in coverage, but lesser as a ball-hawk and tackler. Where you can kill the Eagles is from the slot, and with TEs, especially if you block their blitz packages.

Offensively, the Eagles are a big-play offense, and the Broncos have been as good as anybody in the NFL at limiting big plays. Brent Celek got paid Tuesday, and he deserved it. He's a very good receiving TE. The Eagles don't have a big, physical #1 type WR, but they have two speedsters outside with DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. The guy I think is dangerous is Jason Avant, who is much stronger and more physical than the average slot receiver, and he's a tough matchup for the average thin/quick nickel CB. Of course, Alphonso Smith and Ty Law are both thicker/stronger players, so it's less of an issue. I don't fear the Eagles running game, because if you stop it early, they quit going to it.

This game can go either way, obviously, but the Broncos are well-equipped to get a good road win in Philadelphia. I feel pretty good about both games, actually. So, yeah. I still like the 11-5 prediction.

2. Information From My Eyes - Other Games:

a. Richard Seymour is still playing at a high level in Oakland, despite his fairly modest statistics this season. I watched him defeat the left side of the Cowboys offensive line several times on Thanksgiving Day. Seymour's contract is up after this season, and you have to think he'd rather not re-up with the Raiders. Of course, given the price Al Davis paid, he probably gets franchised. If he somehow isn't, I'd sure like to see him in Denver. Forget all this nonsense about building exclusively through the draft; as we've all hopefully realized this season, a team should take any approach available to it, in order to acquire the most good players possible.

b. Anthony Spencer had the best game I have ever seen him have for the Cowboys. Some Dallas fans took exception with my calling Spencer "just a guy" in Week 3, and if he keeps playing like he did last Thursday, I'll have to rethink my evaluation.

c. I have been a fan of the Cowboys' passing scheme for several years now, going back to the end of the Parcells regime. In 2007, when I started to make it my business to watch teams other than the Broncos closely, Jason Garrett was the young, hot name as the Offensive Coordinator, and Jerry Jones paid him a lot of money not to leave for jobs in Baltimore and Atlanta after the 2007 season.

When Tony Sparano left to become the Dolphins Head Coach last season, it came to light that Garrett hadn't been the primary playcaller in 2007, and that he'd be doing it for the first time in 2008 with Sparano's departure. The Cowboys took a noticeable step back last season, and some of the bloom came off the Garrett rose, even as he interviewed for Head Coaching jobs with the Broncos, Lions, and Rams, and seemed to initially be the favorite for the Rams job. There was speculation that Jones would love to be out from under Garrett's $3-million contract.

Well, the point of the history lesson is that the scheme and execution look much better in Dallas lately than they have since Sparano left. I don't know if this makes Garrett a Head Coach, but it makes him a guy who appears to have grown into his job. The Cowboys' passing scheme is very vertical, and it does a good job of getting the ball in the hands of its playmakers. Some will say they don't get Roy Williams involved enough, but those people believe more in Williams than I do. I think he is what he looks like; a lazy player, who has below average hands, lacks quickness out of his breaks, and rounds off his routes. If there's no salary cap for the Cowboys to take a prorated hit against, I guarantee that he gets released in the offseason, and has to beg for a 1 year, $1-million contract to compete for a backup role somewhere.

d. Charles Woodson is playing the best football of his career right now, which I have mentioned several times this season. He had a big stat game Thursday on national TV, and now everybody is on the bandwagon with me. I actually thought it may have only been the 3rd- or 4th-best game I have seen him play this season. To me, he's the no-question Defensive Player of the Year so far.

e. The Packers defense has really gotten their act together lately, and are a big key to the push they seem to be making. I am pretty comfortable projecting that the Packers will be in the postseason as a Wild Card at this point.

f. Jim Leonhard of the Jets is a tremendously underrated player, and I left him out of my Good AFC Safeties list last week, kind of by accident. He is always around the football, and I've been a big fan of his game going all the way back to his days at Wisconsin. The Broncos offered him more money than the Jets this offseason, but he chose to follow Rex Ryan. It seems like it was a good decision for him, anyway.

g. I watched the Short Cut of the Jets-Panthers game, and I agree with Doug Lee that Mark Sanchez's 13-of-17 stat line was very misleading. He had happy feet, and he looked really confused a lot of the time.

h. I've seen a few people starting to use the line which goes "If Alex Smith plays like he did Sunday, the Niners might not replace him in the draft." Really, he has played pretty well for six games, better than ever before in his career. I think the decision would already be made, if it was up to me. You have a guy who is proving he can play, and he's improving even as teams get some film on him. That rollout and throw to Frank Gore for the second TD was a thing of beauty, as Smith waited till the last possible second, and threw the ball to the only spot he could put it. I'd be looking to improve the offensive line, and counting on having a Top-10 offense next season, with Smith, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, and Vernon Davis. Joe Staley is a solid LT when he's healthy, but General Manager Scot McCloughan really would do well to replace the other 4 starters up front. Sunday's game was the first time in 18 games that the 49ers didn't give up a single sack.

i. I tend to like a lot of University of Florida guys, but Ray McDonald is really coming into his own in a specialist role for the 49ers. He looked unblockable at times Sunday. McDonald usually plays in passing situations at DE. According to ESPN, he didn't record a tackle, but he did recover a fumble. I'm telling you, though, he was defeating some blocks Sunday, and bringing a lot of pressure.

3. There are two kinds of name-droppers, and I am the second kind. It's not like I am extremely famous (yet) with my writing for this site, but when you think about it, I'm known by more people than probably 98% of the population. I'm definitely more famous than any of my friends and family, and in the course of telling my stories, I find it adds rhetorical flourish to mention them sometimes, and it's also fun to share my little bit of light with them. I tell people, if they want to make ST&NO, they should do something interesting with me.

The first kind of name-dropper is the one who tries to stand in other people's light. Our dear friend Jay Glazer is the quintessential example of this kind. Check this douchebaggery, from Tuesday night:

First of all, it's Too $hort, not two-short. And, you know what? That's all I have on that topic. I like making fun of Glazer, but whatever, you know? Fish in a barrel.

I am now going to name-drop a person who is as famous as I am. I met Doug Lee for lunch in Manhattan on Saturday. Yes, THE Doug Lee. Friggin Horse Tracks Doug Lee, people! Doug is a cool guy, and he suggested a great burger spot on the Upper East Side.

The lunch conversation was very interesting, the food was terrific, and it was great to meet Doug, but the hijinks ensued when I left to get back on the road back to Cleveland. I had parked on E 71st Street between 1st and 2nd Avenue (for 14 bucks for 2 1/2 hours.) I came out heading south on 2nd Ave, thinking my GPS would send me back to the FDR, and the Triboro bridge, back up to catch the George Washington Bridge.

Well, it took about 2 minutes for my boy Tom Tom to reacquire a signal, and by then I had gone south 10-15 blocks on 2nd. Tom Tom then wanted me to go to the Lincoln Tunnel, the entrance for which is in the 30s, off 9th Avenue, so significantly south and west of where I started out. It's an unquestionably stupid way to go, driving over the river and through the woods in Manhattan, even on a Saturday afternoon, especially considering the Lincoln Tunnel spits you out on the New Jersey Turnpike, heading toward the world-renowned hell-hole of Newark.. (Home of wred-mann.)

Where's the payoff pitch? Here it goes. I was sitting at a traffic light at E 43rd St and 2nd Avenue, and this Puerto Rican guy (with a flag on his shirt, incidentally), knocked on my window. I looked at him like, WTF? But I lowered the window, and he told my right rear tire area looked like it was on fire, and was smoking like crazy. A woman walking behind him told me the same thing, so I pulled over on 43rd and troubleshot it with my dad on the phone for awhile, before deducing that the emergency brake had probably stayed clamped to the rotor, and was causing sparks and smoke. I watched it, with my mirror pointed down, but eventually I was comfortable enough to go through the tunnel, and eventually through Newark, and back to I-80. The moral of the story is if somebody knocks on your window, he may be trying to be helpful, so you shouldn't look cross-eyed at him, as a matter of instinct. Also, sometimes, Tom Tom messing up is a blessing in disguise. If I had gone FDR to the Triboro, to the GW, It would have been all highway, with nobody walking down the sidewalk to knock.

4. One of the hazards of relying on "insiders" for information is that it comes with agendas and spin. Pro Football Weekly is a (Bill Williamson Memorial) decent site, but they rely tremendously on anonymous insider commentary. They've been talking to somebody who seems incentivized to cast Raheem Morris as woefully inept. Check this out:

Talk of the Buccaneers giving head coach Raheem Morris another offseason to turn the team around is fading fast, as his latest bold decision was another admission of failure in a season marked with disappointment. Morris seized defensive coordinator duties from Jim Bates on Nov. 24 and demoted Bates to what is being described as an advisory role, although it's not clear just what kind of involvement or authority, if any, Bates will have for the rest of his time with the organization.

Morris made a couple of mistakes in hiring his staff, but they were the kind of mistakes a first-timer can make, especially one who gets a Head Coaching job a month after most of the movement was over. There's this persistent meme that relieving Jeff Jagodzinski and Jim Bates of their duties somehow shows Morris to be weak. I say it's the other way around. He realized that he had made mistakes, and he let sunk costs be sunk costs, and made the moves that he felt gave his team the best chance to win.

Morris's team is 1-10, but the Bucs have improved as the season has gone on, and it would be asinine to fire him after a season which was a declared rebuilding year, where a coach who they knew was probably hired a year too early learned the ropes.

There are a lot of haters in the world, and I relate pretty closely to Morris. I have always been an overachiever, who has consistently beaten out older, more experienced professional competition for promotions and recognition. Not to toot my own horn or anything, but I have a pretty good deal of talent, and a strong work ethic. The majority of my critics have only been moderately talented people, with medium work ethics. Let's face it, there are a lot of people in the center of the bell curve. I am in the center of the bell curve in certain ways, and so is everybody. I am not, though, as an accountant, and Raheem Morris is not as a football coach.

So, some 25-year career assistant who has been hired and fired 15 times is jealous of Morris and his early success. He spouts off to Dan Parr at PFW, and Parr writes that article above. The same thing was going on with Josh McDaniels, with the questioning of his ability, and Josh only got clear of it by winning. Morris will, too.

Even a guy like Marshall Faulk was hating on Morris on Sunday morning, intimating that all the young coach knew how to call was Tampa-2. Well, for 7 end-of-game goal-to-go plays, he called press man-to-man, and his guys covered well. On 4th down, Roddy White made a great play, and won the game for the Falcons. Really, if Connor Barth had hit the 51-yard field goal he attempted, they would have only been playing for a tie. I saw somewhere Morris was criticized for kicking the field goal rather than punting. Really? The point is don't listen to these idiots. I'd be very surprised if the Glazer family is.

5. I have a couple of quick college thoughts.

a. The Head Coaching job at Notre Dame is not a good one. I could usually take or leave SI.com's Stewart Mandel, but he has it exactly right. The expectations there are entirely unreasonable, given the constraints they face. If I were Cincinnati's Brian Kelly, there is no way in hell I'd take that job. At Cincinnati, he has a program whose credibility is on the rise, and who will soon be taken more seriously in the National Championship picture. At Notre Dame, there's just faded mystique.

b. I am a Florida fan, and I think it is unlikely that Tim Tebow wins the Heisman Trophy. I am actually pretty excited for the prospect of the lesser Colt McCoy winning, because history will be repeating itself. I am projecting a win against Alabama, and a Texas win against Nebraska, neither of which is a foregone conclusion, but let's say it happens like that. Tebow will lead Florida into a National Championship game against a guy he lost the Heisman to. I would be really bullish for Florida's 3rd title in 4 years, even more than I already am.

c. Speaking of the Heisman, I think it's ridiculous how it's turned into nothing more than a tool for media conjecture. Frankly, it follows along the same line of thinking that dominates professional football writing, that all of the best players are QBs and RBs, joined by the occasional WR. It's a total farce.

That's all I have this week. I will be back next Tuesday for more of a full-figured ST&NO. Have a great week, and Go Broncos!

Three And Out: Useless Predictions For Sunday's Game

Tim — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 18:41:09 -0000

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. While the wounds from Monday night's disaster are still fresh, we don't have the luxury of sulking; the undefeated Colts come to town tomorrow afternoon, and your Houston Texans have to win to maintain a realistic shot of staying in the hunt for a wild card spot. Without further ado, three (3) things that will go down at Reliant in a little more than twenty-four hours:

1. Very quietly, Kevin Walter has become more and more of a focal point in the offense since Owen Daniels went down. On Sunday, he catches his second TD pass of the season and finishes with 81 receiving yards.

2. Despite his two (2) picks of ~~Peyton Manning~~ Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne the last time the Colts and Texans matched up, Bernard Pollard will not have any interceptions tomorrow. He will, however, force a fumble from Joseph Addai.

3. This time around, Brian Cushing will actually jam Dallas Clark at the line. If he doesn't, I predict I will have an aneurysm.

PUT YOUR NAME ON IT: Lost in their awfully impressive 10-0 start is that the Colts' last four (4) victories have been by a combined ten (10) points. Looking at it from a purely Texans-based point of view, Indianapolis has won the last three (3) meetings with Houston by three, six, and four points. Since the franchise's inception, the Texans have defeated the Colts just once in fifteen (15) tries. Over and over again, the Colts have done what championship-caliber teams do: Whatever it takes. Still, the law of averages says that Indianapolis, even with quite possibly the best QB we'll ever see play live, is due to be on the short end of the stick once. Or twice, as it may be, considering their opponent this week. Given the Texans' dire need for this game and my firm belief that Indianapolis is due for a hiccup, I silence my doubts this week. Colts 23, Texans 24.

Colts vs Texans coverage

Take The Half-Season Poll: Most Disappointing Offensive Player For Your Houston Texans?

Tim — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 20:30:37 -0000

We've tackled the debate over who has been most outstanding member of the offense; time to look at the other end of the spectrum. Which offensive player on the Texans has disappointed you the most thus far? Vote in the poll below and let us know why you voted the way you did in the Comments.

Poll

Who Has Been the Most Disappointing Player on the Texans' Offense Through Nine Games?

Kevin Walter

30 votes

Chris Myers

50 votes

Kasey Studdard

6 votes

Chris White

9 votes

Chris Brown

46 votes

Steve Slaton

525 votes

Antoine Caldwell

2 votes

Dan Orlovsky

12 votes

680 votes | Poll has closed

Post-Game Breakdown: Texans Drop Heartbreaker To Colts In Indianapolis

Tim — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 22:00:38 -0000

Almost a full day later, it still hurts. If you're a believer in moral victories, yesterday's loss in Indianapolis probably counts as a moral victory. If you're like me, moral victories do very little for you eight (8) years in. Still, there's a lot to like from what we saw yesterday against the Colts, and your Houston Texans nearly beat an undefeated team (perhaps the best team in the NFL right now) at their house. Unfortunately, they don't keep track of "near-wins," and we have two full weeks to digest what we saw before the Texans get a chance to take the field again. Let's get to the specifics from the fourth loss of the season:

1. Kris Brown--you are forgiven. He has hit far too many big kicks in his career as a Texan, including but not limited to that monstrous 56-yarder he put through the uprights immediately before the half to seize momentum from the Colts (although it must be noted that said boot was the fortuitious consequence of the Colts calling timeout and erasing his first try), not to receive the benefit of the doubt. It is fair, however, to note that Brown has missed the same number of FGs thus far in 2009 that he missed in all of 2008, in 19 fewer attempts. Worth keeping an eye on.

2. How is it that seemingly every Texans fan, going into the game, knew it was folly to try to cover Dallas Clark with a linebacker, yet Frank Bush assigned Brian Cushing to the task virtually the entire game? Linebackers simply cannot cover Clark, just like linebackers could not cover Owen Daniels. By putting Cushing on Clark, the Texans were essentially conceding the matchup, and Peyton Manning blistered 'em all day. Why not put a DB on Clark?

3. The Texans cannot play zone. It's the equivalent of death by a thousand cuts. Please, please, please do not subject us to any more zone looks, Mr. Bush. It's horrific to watch and astoundingly ineffective.

4. I do not come only to bury Frank Bush, friends. The horrors of the first half (first quarter in particular, when Peyton threw 25 (!) times for about 180 yards) were profound, yes, but Bush showed once again that he can make adjustments at halftime. Say what you will about the Houston offense controlling the ball in the second half, but that was a different Texans defense we saw after the intermission. The offense kept the defense fresh and off the field with sustained drives, but the defense was darn good in the second half.

5. In years past, your Houston Texans would have trailed the Colts 21-0 at halftime. This time, it was 13-3, because the defense bowed up and held the Colts to field goals. That is tangible and anecdotal progress.

6. Total Rushing Yards for Indianapolis: 72. Granted, they only ran it 18 times, primarily because they had so much success through the air. Still...72 yards is 72 yards.

7. I think Kerns e-mailed a copy of his Friday post to Bernard Pollard, because Pollard looked like a man angling for a new deal yesterday. Two interceptions from a SS who's not really the ballhawking type. Yes, one of them was on an awful throw from Reggie Wayne, and the other may well have been the result of a Colt running the wrong route. Regardless, both were HUGE plays and occurred on Houston's side of the field. Qualify them however you like, as long as you throw "HUGE" in there as well.

8. Glover Quin played exceptionally well. I've been one of those fans scratching my head over his elevation to the starting lineup over Jacques Reeves. No more. He's legit. ~~As legit as Fred Bennett was his rookie year!~~. Sorry about that.

9. Chicken/Egg here...although Reggie Wayne had 8 catches, he wasn't much of a factor. Was that relative ineffectiveness due to the Dallas Clark-Brian Cushing mismatch, or did Dunta Robinson have more to do with it than we'd like to admit? Personally, I'm of the mind that it's more the former, but Dunta can't win at this point. If Wayne would've had a big game, we'd all be ripping D-Rob for that.

10. Connor Barwin's contributions to the Texans yesterday came in the form of two gigantic penalties. Yet another reason why Tim Bulman is highly underrated.

11. I waited until the bye week was upon us to do this. I can't wait any longer. Here goes: Jacoby Jones is having a tremendous season. He's been an asset on special teams, in the passing game, and occasionally, in the running game. For someone I thought was sure to be cut in September, I might have been more wrong about him than I was about Cushing.

12. The preceding paragraph has guaranteed that Jacoby will fumble twice on Monday Night Football for all the world to see. My apologies--I simply couldn't continue not praising the guy for having a fine season.

13. While Joel Dreessen didn't put up Owen Daniels numbers, he did have a big third down catch. He's not OD. He doesn't have to be in an offense that features Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter starting at WR. That said, we saw how much Schaub misses OD yesterday. Peyton has Dallas Clark; Schaub had OD. Without OD, Schaub is more prone than ever to lock in on 'Dre and force passes his way (e.g., the pick into triple coverage). I hope that Schaub uses the bye week to reestablish the rapport he had last season with K-Dub. As amazing as 'Dre is, he cannot be expected to wrestle the football away from three defenders every game.

14. K-Dub's catch inside the IND 5 was one of the best I've seen this season. Nice to see him become a significant part of the offense again. I repeat: We're gonna need it more than ever with OD gone.

15. When Dwight Freeney beat Duane Brown yesterday, it looked really, really bad. What we don't see in nearly as dramatic fashion, however, is the multiple times Brown kept Freeney in check. Freeney's one of the best ends in the league, so Brown's going to get beat a time or three. Yet Schaub was clean most of the day, and that's a testament to the entire OL.

16. Schaub's second INT, though? All Chris Myers.

17. Matt Schaub finished with two (2) less completions and seven (7) less attempts than Peyton Manning en route to another 300+ yard passing day. Most importantly, he operated a two-minute offense, starting from his own 15 yard line, with no timeouts, and got the Texans into field goal range. That's about as good as it gets.

18. I hope Ryan Moats enjoyed that starting gig, because I don't think it's going to be his when the Titans visit on November 23rd. That's not to say he played poorly; he didn't. But when a guy gets the gig on the strength of not fumbling the football, then proceeds to fumble the football, all while the deposed starter does not fumble the football, I'm guessing Steve Slaton goes back to the first string.

19. Much was made in the Comments during and after the game about the Texans failing to snap the ball from the IND 1 after Moats appeared to fumble; as you'll recall, Houston let the clock run to the two-minute warning, which gave the Colts extra time to consider challenging the play. Which they did, successfully.

I don't blame Schaub for failing to snap the ball. I blame Kubes. More to the point, I blame whoever he's got in the booth. Kubes may not have been able to see it from the opposite sideline, but there's no excuse for his staff in the booth not to see what was going on. In the past, we've all given Kubes a lot of flack for his horrific and ill-timed challenges. Inevitably, this has led us to question exactly who he has watching over this stuff in the booth. I still don't know who it is. All I know is that the person or persons seem to be doing a very poor job. Even worse, Kubes doesn't seem to think it's a problem worth addressing.

20. Fake Game Balls: Offense--Matt Schaub (chiefly because of that final drive; Andre Johnson deserves it too); Defense--Bernard Pollard; Special Teams--Matt Turk (Jacoby actually did very little on punt returns, and I can't give it to the dude who missed the game-winner).

Now we get to work ourselves into a frenzy for two weeks until Bud Adams' Army of Darkness and Monday Night Football return to Reliant Stadium. It's gonna be a looooooooooong fortnight.

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FANTASY WEEKEND REPORT by Craig T

Niko Houllis — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:00:20 -0000

Craig T's FFH (we lied about the year established. Stolen via Google search. How's that for honesty.

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Our good buddy Craig T has his internet down, let me guess, Brighthouse? Remember when Brighthouse tried to make everyone think the NFL Network was the bad guy? Now BH is the only one that Doesnt have it. Heck, I get NFL Network on a sprint phone for goodness sake!! " You carry 8 shopping channels, but no NFL Network!!!"

Anyways..This message brought to you by Verizon's Fios. JK, ....

Take it away Craig T...

Welcome, BucEm fans, to what will be our weekly look at some fantasy football help some of you might be musing over. With 8 weeks down and 5 to go, many of you are likely jockeying for playoff berths, so let's get down to it...

QBs TO START (excluding weekly automatic starts P. Manning, Brady, Roethlisberger, Brees, B. Favre, A. Rodgers, and K. Warner)

1. Tony Romo @ PHI. 8 TDs, 0 INTs in last 3 and seeing field as well as anyone.

2. Matt Hasselbeck vs DET. Weak SEA running game + weak DET defense = big bounceback game for Hasselbeck.

3. Donovan McNabb vs. DAL. Like Romo, also seeing field well in what should be a game filled w points.

4. Philip Rivers @ NYG. Clicking V-Jack lately and has passed for not less than 249 yds this season. NYG defense still not right.

5. Matt Schaub @ IND. First time he and Andre Johnson have been on the field together vs IND since 2007.

Sleeper: Jason Campbell @ ATL. Yes, ugh, I know, but WAS is coming off a bye and ATL can't stop anybody through the air. Look for a solid, if not great, game from Campbell Sunday.

QBs TO SIT

1. Eli Manning vs SD. He's just not trustworthy since injuring his heel.

2. Matt Ryan vs WAS. Roddy White is iffy for the game and WAS pass defense has been solid this season. If you have a 2nd option, consider it.

3. Jake Delhomme @ NO. If you were considering Jake as a bye-week replacement, dig deeper for an option, such as Alex Smith or Campbell. Delhomme vs a turnover-minded defense like NO is a nightmare.

4. Jay Cutler vs ARI. Has hit 3 PaTDs only once since week one.

5. Kyle Orton vs PIT. Steeler D boosted by return of Polamalu.

RBs TO START (excluding C. Johnson, Gore, MJ-D, Turner, LT, SJax, AP, Forte, Ronnie Brown, B. Jacobs)

1. Ryan Grant @ TB. Duh.

2. Joseph Addai vs. HOU. Comeback player of year candidate has scored in 4 straight.

3. Ray Rice @ CIN. Now the guy in BAL, should be key piece of offense in a close game.

4. Marion Barber @ PHI. With trio of RBs, no longer an auto start, but still gets majority of carries and goalline touches and should be started when DAL offense is clicking like it is.

5. Pierre Thomas vs. CAR. Still the main guy in the backfield of the most explosive offense in football.

Sleeper: Jamaal Charles @ JAX. Did you see what Johnson and Titans did to this run defense last week? Charles will get majority of carries and should have a good chance to score.

RBs TO SIT

1. LeSean McCoy vs DAL. Westbrook back and Cowboys have been strong against the run.

2. Laurence Maroney vs MIA. Sammy Morris' return clouds backfield picture and MIA also solid vs run.

3. Cadillac Williams vs GB. GB ranks near the top of the NFL in rushing YPGA. Certainly you've got a better option.

4. Rashard Mendenhall @ DEN.

Denver ranks 3rd against run and Willie Parker to get some work as well.

5. Beanie Wells @ CHI. Still splitting 50/50 w/Hightower, and appears not to be getting majority of goalline carries. Maybe a flex play, but not RB2 material.

WRs TO START (excluding R. Wayne, A. Johnson, L. Fitzgerald, M. Colston, R. Moss, W. Welker, Desean Jackson, R. White, Calvin Johnson, H. Ward, Vincent Jackson, D. Bowe, B. Marshall, Ochocinco)

1. Santana Moss @ ATL. Falcons giving up yards in droves to opposing number 1 WRs. Moss on Grimes' backup should be a mismatch.

2. Miles Austin @ PHI. Ride him til he bucks ya.

3. Nate Burleson vs DET. Hasselbeck's main target should cash in Sunday.

4. Donald Driver @ TB. Bucs' secondary will get a stiff test Sunday, and Driver has been Rodgers' go to guy. Jennings also a solid play.

5. Kevin Walter @ IND. Should have more one on one matchups than Johnson and targets should increase with loss of Owen Daniels.

Sleeper: Steve Breaston @ CHI. In line for solid number of targets with Boldin re-aggravating his ankle.

WRs TO SIT

1. Ted Ginn, Jr @ NE. Don't be fooled by his 2 KRTD performance against NYJ... He still hasn't earned his starting WR spot back yet from Hartline/Bess.

2. Roy E. Williams @ PHI. I don't care that he scored last week. He stinks and doesn't have trust of his QB.

3. Eddie Royal vs PIT. Only receiver worth trusting right now is B. Marshall. Gaffney stealing some of Royal's targets.

4. Lance Moore vs CAR. Gimpy, may be a GTD. With Meachem and Henderson likely to get targets, consider better alternatives over Moore if you can.

5. Mario Manningham vs. SD. Manning spreading around the targets and is having a tough time throwing an accurate deep ball, which hurts a big play WR like double M.

TEs TO START (excluding Witten, Gates, Clark, V. Davis, Shockey, T. Gonzalez)

1. Brent Celek vs DAL. Even though DAL has been great at holding down opposing TEs, he's too valuable to this offense lately to sit.

2. Kevin Boss vs SD. Great underneath option for Manning, who's struggling to step up and make deep throws.

3. Fred Davis @ ATL. TE is a big part of WAS passing game, and Davis has the athletic ability of a WR.

4. Donald Lee vs. TB. Rodgers looks at TE in red zone often and matchup problems exist for Buccaneers. Sub in Jermichael Finley here if he's cleared to play.

5. Heath Miller @ DEN. With Denver's defense so tough against the run and in the red zone, Big Ben's go to guy in the red zone should get some scoring looks.

Sleeper: Ben Watson vs MIA. Scored in 2 of last 3 games.

TEs TO SIT

1. Brandon Pettigrew @ SEA. If you're looking for a bye-week filler, look elsewhere. Without Stafford healthy, Pettigrew is a forgotten part of the offense.

2. Kellen Winslow vs TB. Yea yea, Freeman's gotta throw it to somebody, but who can really tell who he'll connect with? If you've got another solid option, consider it until we see how he connects with K2.

3. Bo Scaife @ SF. Niners 3-4 defense matches up their athletic LBs very well with opposing TEs.

4. Todd Heap @ CIN. Good for 3 catches, 40-50 yds, and that is all.

5. Tony Scheffler vs PIT. Except for his big game against SD a few weeks ago, has done nothing this year.

5 KICKERS TO START:

1. Shaun Suisham @ ATL

2. David Akers @ DAL

3. Nate Kaeding @ NYG

4. Kris Brown @ IND

5. Shayne Graham vs BAL

5 KICKERS TO SIT:

1. Dan Carpenter @ NE

2. Jason Elam vs WAS

3. Olindo Mare vs DET

4. Robbie Gould vs ARI

5. John Kasay @ NO

5 DEFENSES WITH GOOD MATCHUPS:

1. PIT @ DEN

2. SEA vs DET

3. NO vs CAR

4. JAX vs KC

5. SF vs TEN

5 DEFENSES WITH TOUGH MATCHUPS:

1. DAL @ PHI

2. NYG vs SD

3. PHI vs DAL

4. MIA @ NE

5. ATL vs WAS

Three And Out: Useless Predictions For Sunday's Game

Tim — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:35:45 -0000

Last week, yours truly correctly predicted that (1) Jacques Reeves would have an interception and (2) Matt Schaub's streak of turnover-less football would end. Pretty good, right? Kindly ignore the misplaced faith in Steve Slaton's hands, Owen Daniels' health, Schaub's ability to limit his turnovers to one, and/or Kevin Walter's reincorporation into the offense. Nothing to see there, friends. Don't let the misfirings get in the way of admiring my brilliance.

My crystal ball (which may or may not be an empty can of Coors Light) reveals that the following shall come to pass on Sunday in Indianapolis:

1. Ryan Moats will get the start and finish with 13 carries for 57 yards, as well as 3 receptions for 27 yards. Steve Slaton will finish with 9 carries for 64 yards and 4 receptions for 36 yards. Slaton will find the end zone, but he will also put the ball on the carpet again. And then we will be treated to two (2) weeks of chatter about whether Slaton should start on Monday Night Football against Bud Adams' Army of Darkness. Yippee.

2. If the Colts get the ball to start the game, I can't shake the feeling that Peyton Manning's going to have them up 14-0 before we know what happened. If the Texans get the ball to start the game, there will not be a two TD lead at any point all afternoon by either team. Needless to say, I'm going to be paying close attention to the coin toss. Personally, I'd go with tails.

3. The Colts are ravaged with injuries to their secondary, and Matt Schaub's going to take full advantage of it when Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis aren't in his grill. Schaub finishes with 284 yards passing, complete with 3 TDs and 1 INT. He'll also be dropped a total of three (3) times by the Indy defense. Owen Daniels is gone, but Joel Dreessen and Kevin Walter will pick up his slack. Between the two of them, they will account for 122 receiving yards and a TD.

PUT YOUR NAME ON IT: All hyperbole about this being the biggest game in franchise history aside, your Houston Texans are playing with house money on Sunday. No one expects them to beat the mighty Colts on the road. And with good reason--the Texans have never done it before. Unfortunately, I think this is the week that the Texans secondary gets exposed. I mean, it's Peyton Manning; he's the best QB in the league, and the Texans have yet to face a QB in the same zip code of excellence as the one in which Peyton resides. He's going to be the difference, though I think the Texans are going to make it tough on him, particularly in shutting down the Colts' running attack. Texans 24, Colts 30.

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Three And Out: Useless Predictions For Sunday's Game

Tim — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 20:28:44 -0000

Last week's "Three And Out" was fatally flawed. And not for the usual those-are-awful-predictions-that-didn't-come-to-pass rationale. No, last week, despite my well-established psychic abilities, I never saw Alex Smith coming. For that, I apologize. I failed you, and I failed myself. If the 49ers had completed the comeback, I would have accepted full blame for the loss. It starts with me.

On to this week's contest in Buffalo:

1. Sunday's weather forecast for Buffalo doesn't reveal any rain, sleet, snow, or even swirling winds. Thus, I fully expect Matt Schaub to be Matt Schaub, to the tune of 273 yards passing with 3 TDs. Can he make it two (2) weeks in a row without a turnover? Yes, he can. But he won't. Look for a red zone pick from Cap'n Matt.

2. Your Houston Texans shall continue their heretofore unknown positive showing in turnover differential. They're +3 right now, and I'm calling that they'll be at +4 upon the completion of Sunday's game. How, you ask? To start, Schaub's aforementioned interception will be the only Houston turnover of the day. That's right--no Steve Slaton fumble this week. Additionally, I foretell a Jacques Reeves interception of Ryan Fitzpatrick and a fumble recovery by Brian Cushing.

3. Owen Daniels will finish with 88 yards receiving and a TD. Kevin Walter will also have a TD catch of his own. Schaub's final TD pass? To Steve Slaton, on a screen.

PUT YOUR NAME ON IT: The Bills are a scrappy squad with some real talent, especially in the secondary and at running back. The problem, as I see it, is that they're not equipped to match the Texans score for score. Barring Schaub and/or Slaton handing the Bills the ball back, this is a game the Texans should win. As I noted above, I'm feeling unnaturally good about the turnover situation right now, so I'm backing the good guys, even on the road. Texans 27, Bills 17.

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Buffalo Rumblings

Bills Fantasy Friday: Week 8 Start 'Em/Sit 'Em

Kurupt — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 10:52:58 -0000

Welcome back once again to Fantasy Friday here at Buffalo Rumblings. The Buffalo Bills are coming off back-to-back road victories in consecutive weeks for the first time since 2004, as they return home to host the streaking Houston Texans. The Texans have won three of four and have six straight games in which they have scored over 20 points. Buffalo's defense posted another solid performance last week against the sagging Panthers, despite giving up a lot of yards once again. They did a nice job of keeping the Panthers off the scoreboard and forcing four more turnovers after forcing six the week before. This week's game against the Texans poses a much stiffer challenge to the vulnerable Bills defense. Those Texans also bring in a defense that has allowed nearly as many yards as the Bills, in addition to three points more per game. Both teams have individual players that can make some noise for your fantasy teams this week. Join me after the jump for recommendations on how to handle them this week.

Quarterbacks
Matt Schaub - So far this season, Schaub has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and possibly the best fantasy quarterback to date. He leads the NFL with 2,074 yards passing and 16 touchdowns, completes almost 66% of his passes, averages 8.3 yards per attempt and sports a 104.4 QB rating that makes us all jealous. He's finally becoming everything the Texans hope he'd be when they acquired him from Atlanta a few years ago. The Bills' pass defense has had its moment so far this season. They currently rank 10th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, although part of me believes they're legit while part of me believes that's due to having a terrible run defense and facing a slew of crappy quarterbacks. What is legit is the 5.8 yards per attempt allowed, the 58.0 QB rating they've given up and even the NFL best 13 interceptions. They can be taken advantage of, however. Jake Delhomme (!) threw for over 300 yards last week, but in typical Delhomme fashion he literally threw the game away. I don't think Schaub will be doing that this week. Start him as you always would, but watch out for inclement weather. Verdict: Start 'Em

Ryan Fitzpatrick - As much as some Bills fans may want to think otherwise, Fitzpatrick has been pretty terrible these past two weeks. He's averaging 120 yards per game, 5.1 yards per attempt and is completing less than 45% of his passes. He's in the same league as the Derek Anderson and JaMarcus Russell's of the NFL. Don't even think about starting him even against the Texans middle of the road pass defense. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Running Backs
Steve Slaton - Slaton has been somewhat of a fantasy disappointment, although he really isn't one. His rushing numbers are way down from last season when he rushed for almost 1,300 yards, 80 yards per game, 4.8 yards per carry and 9 touchdowns. This season he's down to 49 yards per game, 3.1 yards per carry and 2 touchdowns. Pretty frightening numbers, I'd say. He's made up for those numbers by putting up excellent numbers in the Texans' passing game, which has really helped Schaub light up the fantasy world. Thus far, Slaton has caught 27 passes for 304 yards and 3 touchdowns, helping maintain his top 10 fantasy RB status. Look for his success to continue this week. I expect his rushing numbers to increase this week while his receiving totals continue to stay strong. 130 total yards and a touchdown or two seems like a pretty reasonable expectation this week. He's an every week starter, anyhow. Verdict: Start 'Em

Marshawn Lynch - Despite a juicy match-up against a poor Panthers run defense last week, Lynch and the running game again struggled. The Texans have allowed roughly 115 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry, along with a whopping 10 rushing touchdowns so far this season. Opportunities will again be there for Lynch to have a strong game. Unfortunately, with the offensive line continuing to struggle, expectations should remain tempered. It wouldn't surprise me if he posted solid numbers this week as the team will likely ride him early and often. He reached the end zone for the first time last week, and with the Texans struggles there, it wouldn't be too surprising if he walked into the end zone again this week. The Bills need to get him more involved in the passing game again as he's caught just three total passes the past two games. Lynch is definitely a starter as a flex this week, while starting him as a RB2 is a bit more risky. Verdict: Start 'Em in all

Fred Jackson - Jackson has pretty much fallen off the fantasy radar after his hot start. He gave fantasy owners a total of 2 rushing yards last week. Expect the struggles to continue as his touches continue to dwindle. Until he has a bounce back game, you should be looking elsewhere. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Wide Receivers
Andre Johnson - Johnson left last week's victory over San Francisco with a bruised lung after he began coughing up blood. He practiced Thursday and looks good to go. Bruised lung, bloody lung, no lung, it wouldn't matter. Johnson is an every week starter and one of the best in the league. As a Bills fan, just hope he doesn't kill us too badly. Verdict: Start 'Em

Kevin Walter - Walter has been very disappointing so far this season after a solid 2008 that saw him put up 899 yards and 8 touchdowns. He has just 18 catches for 232 yards and a touchdown this year while the Texans have turned elsewhere (RB and TE) for production. He's definitely a guy you want to stash on your bench at this point because he can become a bigger factor at any time, but don't start him. Remember, the Bills have allowed just one touchdown to a WR all season. There are plenty of better options this week. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Jacoby Jones - Jones and David Anderson rotate as the 3rd WR, but neither has a huge role in the offense. Jones does find the end zone though, having scored four touchdowns already this season, three receiving and one kick return. He also had a punt return touchdown nullified by penalty last week. If you are in need of a bye week fill-in, Jones could be a nice sleeper option for you, especially if return yards and touchdowns factor into your league's scoring. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Lee Evans - Evans has seen a return to relevance with Fitzpatrick under center. He has 9 catches for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns the past two weeks and looks to have a good match-up this week. Fitzpatrick has really looked Evans' way as he accumulated 20 total targets against the Jets and Panthers (he has just 48 for the season). Expect that to continue. I said I wouldn't recommend using him again, but I feel almost compelled to do so for one week only. Assuming the weather is okay, I expect Fitzpatrick to continue trying to get Evans heavily involved, including another deep ball or two. With some good receivers on bye again this week (Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Dwayne Bowe), Evans makes for a good one week start. I'm going to go ahead and do it, so you know who to blame when he catches just one pass this week....Verdict: Start 'Em

Terrell Owens - Owens looks nothing like the player he once was. At this point, it's a positive if he simply catches a pass thrown his way. His hands and concentration seem to have completely vanished. There's no way I would suggest starting him any time soon. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Tight Ends
Owen Daniels - Daniels is one of the best and most athletic tight ends in the NFL. He's also an excellent pass catcher and is really the Texans' #2 receiver. The Bills have struggled all season with TE's, including last week's 9 receptions and 135 yards they allowed to the Panthers' "dynamic" trio of Dante Rosario, Jeff King and Gary Barnidge. Daniels is coming off a 7-reception, 123 yard, one touchdown performance against the 49ers, and scored 2 touchdowns the prior week. All signs point to similar results this week. Like Andre Johnson, Daniels is a no-brainer every week. Verdict: Start 'Em

Shawn Nelson - It's too bad Nelson continues to miss practice (and likely this game) due to migraines because he'd have a chance to put up some big numbers against the Texans. Last week Vernon Davis abused the Texans secondary deep over the middle. It would have been nice to see Nelson get the opportunity to face that unit, but it's looking unlikely. Derek Fine isn't an option here, either. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Kickers
Kris Brown - Kicking for a prolific offense is always a good thing, though Brown hasn't had the attempts he's gotten in year's past. With just six field goals in nine attempts so far this season, Brown is on pace to finished with barely half of the 29 FG's he made last year. He makes for a good play this week, though. The Bills continue to do a decent job of keeping teams out of the end zone, so look for Brown to get some attempts this week. Verdict: Start 'Em

Rian Lindell - He put up two FG's and two extra points last week, justifying a start. I'll go back to the well and say Lindell gets multiple chances again this week. Verdict: Start 'Em

Defense/Special Teams

Houston D/ST - The Texans have picked off just four passes and sacked the quarterback nine times. They aren't much of a fantasy defense, though Fitzpatrick is liable to self-destruct at any time. I understand why some would start the Texans this week, but I don't think the unit is good enough to go with. Go pick up Arizona or San Diego's defense if you need a D/ST. Verdict: Sit'Em

Buffalo D/ST - The Bills have forced 10 turnovers the past two weeks, and added four sacks. They aren't facing Mark Sanchez or Jake Delhomme this week, though. It's hard to imagine them having another productive fantasy performance against Schaub and the Texans' offense. Verdict: Sit'Em

Sleepers

Jacoby Jones - As mentioned above, Jones could be a nice sleeper option for those of you who get points for return statistics this week. With a heavy dose of attention being paid to Johnson and Daniels by the Bills secondary, Jones could see himself with some advantageous coverage on offense. He's a big play guy who could burn the Bills this week.

Terrell Owens - Eh, why not? There aren't too many other options on the Bills to surprise. Owens has been terrible this season, and there aren't too many fantasy owners counting on him anymore. Therefore, he now is relegated to sleeper status at best. Maybe this is all he needs....everyone writing him off giving him even more ammunition to have a huge week. Well, we can hope, can't we?

*****

Tough match-up for the Bills defense this week, as they'll have their work cut out for them against some of the top individual fantasy players in the league. Look for the Texans to accumulate a ton of yardage, but touchdowns may again be harder to come by against the Bills. Let's just hope the Bills offense shows some life this week, too. As always, good luck and use this comments section to discuss all of your fantasy needs!

Three And Out: Useless Predictions For Sunday's Game

Tim — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 21:15:18 -0000

It's been an awfully long week in the non-blogging realm, and you know the drill by now, so let's get to it. Three things written in the stars to happen on Sunday when San Francisco rolls into Reliant:

1. In the last two weeks, Matt Schaub has thrown for 763 yards, 6 TDs, and 2 INTs. It says here that, upon completion of Sunday's game, his totals for the last three weeks will be 1,078 yards, 9 TDs, and 3 INTs. Of the 315 passing yards he's going to post on Sunday, 112 of them and 1 TD will be to Andre Johnson, who should victimize whichever DB has the misfortune to cover him (Nate Clements?). The other two passing TDs will be to Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels.

2. The Niners are pretty stout against the run, giving up just 3.3 YPC. Steve Slaton's not going to skew that average much, but I think we're seen the evolution of his role in this offense the past two weeks as the team has featured him much more prominently in the passing game. I've said it once, and I'll say it again: Slaton can be our Brian Westbrook. The latest justification for that comparison will come on Sunday when Slaton racks up another 72 receiving yards. And no fumbles.

3. All the Michael Crabtree buzz? It's going to be a complete non-issue, as the Texans will pressure Shaun Hill better than they have any QB all year. Your Houston Texans will tally three (3) sacks of Hill and hit him a handful of times more. Antonio Smith gets off the sack schneid this week.

PUT YOUR NAME ON IT: Seeing as how they won last week, the season-long pattern says the Texans lose this week. And notwithstanding that nasty loss to the Falcons, the Niners seem like exactly the type of hard-nosed team that will hit the Texans in the mouth. Logic dictates that this one's a loss, and I called it as such before the season started.

Logic's great and all, but I've gone back and forth on this one all week. Quite simply, if the Texans really are more than a .500 team, this is the kind of game they should win. If they're not--if they're merely an inconsistent team that's going to be infinitely more valuable for fantasy purposes than real games--they lose, and they lose ugly. I want to believe that the Texans are better than 8-8. I want to believe that the defense has found some semblance of consistency. I want to believe that the offense is every bit the juggernaut it has appeared to be since the debacle against the Jets (though you'd have to throw that first half against the Cardinals in there too). I want to believe. So I will. 49ers 17, Texans 24.

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Houston Texans 28, Cincinnati Bengals 17: When the protagonist still has two options

Kirkendall — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 02:00:57 -0000

More photos » by Ed Reinke - AP

2 months ago: Houston Texans tight end Owen Daniels (81) is pursued by Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Leon Hall (29) in the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 18, 2009, in Cincinnati. Daniels caught two touchdown passes. Houston won 28-17. (AP Photo/Ed Reinke)

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In every story there's a protagonist. And while on some quest, the protagonist hits a point in which everything falls apart. In Lord of the Rings, Frodo was finally consumed by the ring. In Star Wars, Luke Skywalker lost his hand, learned that the galaxy's terror was his own father and Han Solo had just been frozen in carbonite. Apply your favorite story. The protagonist always loses hope at some point. Whatever could go wrong, goes wrong. Most of the time it's unexpectedly. Perhaps it was when they weren't focused on the bigger objective. Maybe that's what happened with the Bengals. Maybe they lost focus. Maybe the picture was bright with the grand prize that was deceptively within reach. "We got caught up in whether we were going to challenge or not challenge and a lot of other things that didn’t really matter, instead of just playing football," head coach Marvin Lewis said after the game. "Not focusing got us out of the game, particularly in the second half. We had guys running onto the field looking over their shoulder at me instead of playing football."

So maybe the Bengals lost focus. Were they looking forward? Were they thinking of what they accomplished, believing that they'd beat Houston no matter what? The Texans played a great game. The Bengals were soundly beaten. When Matt Schaub threw the football, he threw good passes to wide open receivers. When the Texans offensive line fired off the football, they were driving the front seven. Instead of playing like boulders, the Bengals defense stood like feathers, catching blockers, rushers and receivers. The offense? Please. They drove a little bit. Mother would be proud. But they were \ shut out in three of the four quarters. In the third quarter, the Bengals offense ran nine plays and averaged 2/3rds of a single yard per play. We had receivers dropping passes. We had tight ends dropping passes and fumbling the football. We have veteran leaders on the offensive line committing drive killing penalties.

How can you not say the Bengals loss was a matter of just losing focus?

Is that an excuse? No. Of course not. You lose, you lose. Find a reason for it other than not repeating your mistakes is a fools way of making an excuse. Holding. Tripping. Fumble. Fumble. Drops. Incomplete passes. Missing that one block. Whatever it was, the Bengals committed it. You're more than welcome to say the problem is play calling. But until I actually get past the point of saying the Bengals players aren't shooting themselves in their own foot, I can't go there yet. You could have the God of Football calling plays. He's only as good as his players. When they fumble, trip, hold, drop then exactly what could the God of Football do? Bob Bratkowski is hardly the God of Football. But he's dealing with the same smelly crap.

Another indirect consequence is that the Bengals nearly didn't sell out. And perhaps they technically didn't. It wasn't just the fans that bought the remaining tickets. It was Chad Ochocinco and Motorola. So what do the people think that paid the money they were hesitant to pay? Additionally, what about those that received a free ticket through the promotional efforts, think about the Bengals after this. Think if they didn't want to pay before would pay for tickets now?

In an effort to not underscore the Texans win, Houston does match up well against the Bengals. The only way to defend Andre Johnson is hoping he loses focus. Their receivers so wide open, that it was almost like they knew our coverages. Our zone coverages tends to back pedal so much that running backs like Steve Slaton records 100 yards receiving.

Should the Bengals have beaten the Texans? Do the Bengals look better than the Texans on paper? Does even bothering to answer those questions really matter?

Here's what we do know. The Bengals share first place now with the Pittsburgh Steelers. They have the Chicago Bears, the Baltimore Ravens and Steelers on tap. The season could very well be lost as it could be won in the next month.

Bengals defense put good defense description on lay-away. It didn't take long for the Houston Texans to fire out against the Bengals defense. On the first offensive play for the Texans, Matt Schaub looked to the right on a play-action wide receiver screen. Andre Johnson caught the football and completed a 59-yard pass play to the Bengals 29-yard line. Four plays later, the Houston Texans attempted to kick a field goal when Antwan Odom penetrated Houston's line and blocked the attempt. Dodged a bullet there. Right? Problem with guns is that there's more bullets.

On the Texans first two drives, Houston ran 17 plays for 145 yards total. Matt Schaub completed seven of his first 10 passes of the game for 119 yards passing, including a touchdown pass to Owen Daniels to finalize Houston's second drive that went 11 plays and 68 yards. The Texans passing game found several opportunities for big plays, wide open receivers and a tight end that killed the Bengals -- especially when the defense blitzed. Steve Slaton caught a bubble screen to the left on the Texans third drive of the game. Following several blocks, the running back ran 38 yards untouched into the endzone to give the Texans a 14-7 lead midway through the second quarter. Through the first three drives, the Texans ran 24 plays for 220 yards total.

On third down, Michael Johnson, playing defensive tackle, penetrated the middle to knock down a pass intended for Andre Johnson with 4:51 left in the second quarter, forcing a three-and-out. On the ensuing possession, pressure forced Schaub to throw the football away with 2:30 left in the first half on third-and-two.

After the first three drives of the game, the Texans went three-and-out twice and Matt Schaub threw an interception. In the second half, the Texans scored a touchdown on their first three possessions, with three punts and a fumble during the rest of the half.

Houston Texans in the first half.
First Three Drives: 24 plays, 220 yards total and two touchdowns (and a blocked field goal)
Last Three Drives: 10 plays, 18 yards, two punts and an interception

When we learn that penalties are bad, mmmkay? The Bengals offense was cursed, plagued or whatever you want to call it, by a series of penalties on their first two drives which killed several big plays. More importantly, penalties killed drives in which the offense was moving the football. It was Andrew Whitworth's holding that stalled the Bengals first drive that negated a 15-yard bubble screen to Laveranues Coles as the Bengals threatened at mid-field to start the game. It was the Bobbie Williams (tripping) and J.P. Foschi (holding) that put the Bengals in second-and-21. The Bengals were unable to overcome the yardage deficit. Before the penalties, the Bengals offense was approaching or at mid-field. In both instances, the Bengals were forced to punt.

Thanks to Chad Ochocinco, Cedric Benson, and the absence of drive killing penalties, the Bengals offense completed a drive with a 10-yard touchdown by Cedric Benson. The offensive line buried the cutback lane and Benson, being patient, cutback behind the offensive line where a gapping tunnel led to daylight and a tie ball game.

What is it with the two-minute offenses? When there's less than two minutes left in a half, we can be certain of one thing. The Bengals offense will move the football. After an eight-yard and one-yard run by Benson, Carson Palmer picked up the first down on a quarterback sneak. With 1:35 left in the half, Chad Ochocinco runs down the left hash mark and Palmer throws a deep pass, hitting Chad in stride for a big 50-yard pass to the eight-yard line. After an incomplete pass to Chris Henry, Laveranues Coles runs down the back of the endzone to the right. Carson Palmer rolls out to the left, finds Coles redirecting to the left, tip toeing the back of the endzone, catching Carson Palmer's pass giving the Bengals a 14-14 tie with 0:48 left in the first half.

What is it with the two-minute defense? The Texans worked to pick up chunks of yards with less than a minute left in the half to record points at half time to take the lead. With :18 left in the half, Matt Schaub throws a tall pass to intended for Kevin Walter. The problem is, Walter is short and the pass fell into the stomach of Chris Crocker, who returned the football to the Houston 41-yard line. With nine seconds left in the half, Carson Palmer completed a nine-yard pass to Daniel Coats. With three seconds left in the first half, Shayne Graham connected on a 50-yard field goal to take 17-14 lead into half time.

Other than that, the offense simply didn't perform. The Bengals punted on four of their first five possessions in the first half. The Bengals offense did explode for ten points with 2:19 left in the first half. However, that was, as we say, all she wrote for the offense.

Quarter	Plays	Yards	Result
1	7	30	Punt
1	4	39	Punt
2	8	64	Touchdown
2	3	3	Punt
2	3	4	Punt
2	6	69	Touchdown
2	2	9	Field Goal
3	3	14	Fumble
3	3	-3	Punt
3	3	-5	Punt
4	3	6	Punt
4	2	12	Fumble
4	7	54	Interception

When a clever defensive play turns into a embarrassing defensive play. Steve Slaton ran off the left edge with 14:19 left in the third quarter. Leon Hall wrapped Slaton, twisted him around so the running back fell on Hall. Of course, this was planned. Because the football was stripped and Hall recovered the fumble. Hall planned it this way, that tricky cornerback. However, Houston challenged the play and Slaton's right knee hit the ground before the football came out. Texans keep the football.

Later on the drive, with 11:31 left in the third quarter, Matt Schaub play-fakes right, rolls out left and finds Jacoby Jones wide open in the endzone. Chris Crocker, who was trailing the wide receiver by a good seven yards, became a suspect in the question, "who the hell's fault was that?" It appeared that Johnathan Joseph handed Jones over to Crocker and Crocker never bothered to follow Jones until he realized that Joseph was sitting in a zone. It was already over.

Coats' mistake scorecard.
Drops: 1
Fumble: 1

While the Bengals are driving in the second quarter, at Houston's 22-yard line with 12:27 left in the second quarter, Palmer tosses the football to Daniel Coats crossing the field. A sure-catch typically means an embarrassing miss for Coats. The football rattled in Coats' hands momentarily before falling incomplete. Early in the third quarter, Palmer finds Coats who picks up five yards on the pass. As he's falling down, the football comes lose and the Texans have the football at mid-field. Is Coats a liability at this point?

Thankfully, in both situations, Coats mistakes didn't cost the football team. After his dropped pass, the Bengals eventually scored on Cedric Benson's 10-yard touchdown run. After his fumble and a 13-yard pass to Kevin Walter, the Texans didn't pick up another first down and punted. However, it didn't worked out for the Bengals offensively on the ensuing drive. Conner Barwin sped-rush off the edge, beating Dennis Roland and sacking Carson Palmer for a nine-yard loss, forcing the Bengals to punt after going three-and-out.

A story about a screen pass that led to an 11-point deficit. Steve Slaton caught six passes for 102 yards receiving, most of them on screen passes. With 3:51 left in the third quarter, Matt Schaub throws over the middle to running back Steve Slaton on a called screen pass on third-and-nine. Slaton picked up 27 yards and a first down. After Chris Browns' four-yard run, Schaub completes a seven-yard touchdown pass to Owen Daniels giving the Texans an 11-point lead, 28-17.

Laveranues Coles drops the pass and team's chances. With 13:34 left in the fourth quarter, down by eleven points, needing to put together a drive that, at the very least, lowers the deficit to within a possession, the Bengals lined up at the Cincinnati 25-yard line with four yards to go on third down. Palmer, for some misguided reason, throws to Laveranues Coles, on the right running a slant. Coles drops it. The Bengals punt and time is running out.

The Bengals six drives of the second half: Three three-and-outs, two fumbles and an interception.

When tired turns to anxiety to anger. With 13:18 left in the game, the Houston Texans started a drive that consumed nearly seven minutes off the clock. Tick, tock. I laid on the couch, started feeling sleepy. Should I take a nap? If the Texans score a touchdown on this drive, they take an 18-point lead. If the Bengals hold the Texans to a field goal, Cincinnati will still need to score two touchdowns and hold the Texans to a quick three-and-out. Either way, I'm not feeling it. I'm tired. I was up all night and I woke up early.

Tick, tock. Sleepy. Steve Slaton takes the hand off on second-and-18, has the football stripped by Robert Geathers and after the football bounces around for a bit, Brandon Johnson recovers. Bengals football. There's a chance. A touchdown, two point conversion and a field goal. Tie ball game. Not necessarily in that order. After a quick six-yard pass to Cedric Benson, J.P. Foschi catches a second-down pass, gets turned around and tackled. When the pile didn't break immediately, you knew there was trouble. Foschi fumbled the football and the Houston Texans recovered. Three emotions within a minute, and all that changed is that I'm laying on the couch again... pissed.

Whatever we think, all that matters is that must Bengals march on. What usually happens when we, you and I in our daily lives, are kicked to the ground, refuse to stand up and pout about it? Absolutely nothing. The Bengals were punched in the mouth Sunday. Now we'll now how "mature" the Bengals are. Will they rebound, fight twice as hard? Or will they bitch and moan about how they were beaten by a 2-3 team after beating the Packers, Steelers and Ravens? Now, we'll see what this team is made of. Now we'll see if this team can find their focus again.