SB Nation - Anthony Weaver

Before You Jump

Jake — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 16:52:42 -0000

Ok. This place has been a sea of negativity for the last two days and understandably so. The team that everyone has invested a great deal of time into completely laid an egg on Sunday. This season is supposed to be the Texans coming out party and everyone involved in the debacle feels embarrassed, especially the fans. Notice though that I used "is" instead of "was" in the previous sentence, because the Texans’ season is not over.

This isn’t going to be a ridiculously overdone blind faith post; I’m still seething from the loss. I also don’t want to sound in any way that I am criticizing anyone who vented their frustrations because they more than deserved to in my book. Having said that though, continuously dwelling on only the negatives won’t help anyone. This is an attempt to put things into perspective and make an honest assessment of what happened Sunday, where the team is now and what needs to be done to improve, in my amateur opinion.

Let me get the one thing that is closest to an excuse off of my chest: The Jets defense looks amazing. In fact, I honestly believe that is the toughest defense we will play all year. That’s a bold claim but who will be better, the Titans? I agree with beef’s assessment that they were only able to produce pressure on a sub-par Steeler offensive line when they blitzed as opposed to last year when four rushers would do the trick. Who else will be better out of the Jaguars, Colts, Raiders, 49ers, Bengals, Cardinals, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, Dolphins or Patriots? I’m not saying they’re all pushovers, several of their defenses in fact looked decent to good this week, but none of them showed the absolute dominance that the Jets did. Part of that dominant perception was the Texans doing, but before I get into that I needed to tip my hat to Rex Ryan and company.

Author’s Note: I still need to go back and watch the recording of the game for a better evaluation, but not surprisingly I keep coming up with excuses not to. I bring that up to emphasize that I am recalling all of this from a memory diluted by uncontrollable rage and liquid stress reliever.

- Matt Schaub is a good quarterback but does not react well to pressure defenses. That pressure is sometimes the result of poor protection, but it is sometimes due to holding the ball too long. This Sunday it didn’t help that Kris Jenkins was running through Chris Myers like a banner a high school football team tears through before a game. Schaub's gimpy ankle didn't make things better either. Despite that, there were a couple of plays including at least one sack that Matt simply needed to get rid of the football. As much as I like Schaub, this is his third year as a starter and he is due to make about 10 million in a roster bonus after the season, so if he doesn’t get it this year I think he might be done. I really think he already gets it and he simply took a step back with the rest of the team, but he’ll be judged by the entire season.

- Kyle Shanahan’s inexperience showed through this week, which was partly to blame for Schaub’s performance. When the majority of your experience and formative years are spent with a team like the Broncos who seemed to always have outstanding offensive lines, you don’t account for constant pressure in your game plan. He needs to learn how to roll with the punches and find ways to make teams pay for blitzing too much. Others have already pointed this out, but I brought it up to say that Gary Kubiak needs to keep a more active role in the play calling. I know he has stated a desire to give Shanahan more autonomy, but it needs to be a gradual process.

- The faster that Antoine Caldwell can get ready for a starting role, the better. I have nothing against Chris Myers, but he can simply not stop bigger defensive tackles even though he added more weight this offseason for precisely that reason. Until Caldwell is ready, Alex Gibbs needs to plan for almost constant double teams in the middle in his scheme.

- Everyone scoffed when I asked if Steve Slaton didn’t look good after the first game in the preseason, but he still isn’t playing up to the level of last year. I don’t know if it’s the weight, or a head issue that’s keeping him from hitting the holes, but someone needs to fix the problem and fix it quick. The offense enjoyed its success from last year because of play action. No one will fear the run when you’re averaging below two yards a clip.

- Everyone was worried about the run defense more than anything, including me. Well, the front seven showed up to play in that department. Granted, an average of 5.22 yards per carry for the Jets looks terrible, but after three quarters it was 3.83. You can call me an idiot, but after a 38:46/21:14 time of possession split, I think it’s relevant to say that the defense got worn out.

- The front seven did a good job with combating the run, but it did not get sufficient pressure on a rookie quarterback. I can’t remember the Jets third down numbers and if it’s alright with you I’d just as soon not look them up because it was embarrassing. Frank Bush’s new scheme produced as many sacks as Anthony Weaver had all of last year; 0. Have to do better.

- The secondary usually got a partial pass from Texans fans because of lack of pressure, but many of the completions were on Dunta Robinson and friends Sunday. It has been reported that Jacques Reeves will return this week, and I never thought I’d be so happy to see him. Glover Quin and Brice McCain were made to look like rookies during the game, especially the wide open touchdown pass to Chancey Stuckey. It would be nice if they could learn from veterans, but Dunta is too worried about pissing everyone off to teach. Seriously, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a pro athlete in Houston pull a complete 180 as drastically as him in terms of fan support.

This is a long list of problems that must be overcome, but I don’t think the Texans are as bad off as people are afraid of. The Jets are a tough opponent and we played poorly. Moreover, Texans fans are gun shy because of past seasons. Am I giving a pass to the Texans? Absolutely not. By playing so poorly in Week One they upped the stake of an already difficult Week 2 road game against a division rival coming off a tough loss. If the Texans lose that game as well it will seem like the beginning of every other Kubiak led season. Don’t forget though, that they are capable of winning this game. We did it last year with Albert Haynesworth in the lineup. What I’m trying to say is hesitant skepticism is one thing, but let’s not give up on the season because of one game.

Jets @ Texans Semi-Drunken Thoughts: 462 - 183

bigfatdrunk — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 23:53:59 -0000

I've taken a lot of shit on this here blog for not drinking the Frank Bush kool-aid as I've been worried we never addressed the real problem of our shitty defense. Sure, we blitzed more, but we never put real and consistent pressure on the QB...a QB making his first NFL start as a rookie on the fucking road.

The unfortunate fact is: we do not have the defensive talent to compete, a problem on obvious display today.

We can change the scheme, we can change the defensive coordinator, but we never addressed our serious talent issues. Sure, Brian Cushing helps. He was worthless in the first quarter, but he played better the rest of the game. Connor Barwin was horrible, completely absorbed by either tackle to disappear on every snap he took. Glover Quin and Brice McCain all saw plenty of time on the field, and McCain's performance was especially sucky. Them's the rookies. The older dudes played little better.

Mario Williams led the team in tackles today. Our pass-rushing LDE. Let that sink in for a moment. The rest of our d-line was almost utterly worthless. Okoye wound up with four tackles, but several were down field (at least he was active). Shaun Cody flashed talent. Antonio Smith? What are you even doing on the field? Didn't we pay Anthony Weaver for the same fucking thing?

I saw several people say they were happy with our run defense performance, but we still gave up 4.5/carry.

Our defensive secondary? Wow, what can I possibly say? We were consistently torched by Mark Sanchez who lit us up like a Christmas tree? 3rd down? No problem! Nick Ferguson was beyond atrocious all game, but he was followed closely in scrubiness by Dominique Barber and Dunta Robinson, who has become a horrible defensive liability. If I saw correctly, he didn't see many snaps in the second half. John Busing, as nice as that pick was, is just not ready.

We never addressed our core problems defensively. We put more pressure on the QB, sure, but we didn't record a single sack. Our run defense sucks, our pass defense is worse, and I have absolutely no faith we have a defensive coaching staff capable of making necessary adjustments.

I know I'm going to hear: but it's the first game! Chill out! No, I will not. We made the same mistakes under Richard Smith, and we still lack the necessary talent to address our biggest problems. Going into today, I started thinking we were another 8-8 team. Now, I don't know if we're that good.

462 yards against. In-fucking-credible.

A Defensive Adventure in 4-3 Under Minor

bigfatdrunk — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 00:47:10 -0000

Bill Kollar and Frank Bush having a laugh...via www.gonemovies.com.

While the fan club for my previous squishy post was rather....small, it and Jake's post on Bill Kollar really helped me put some things together, so to speak. Let's start with the conclusion: I'm not ready to chug the new system Kool Aid, and I think our defense is still gonna suck ass...just not as much ass. HERESY!!!

(For the record, drawing with a touchpad is hard)

For this post, I'm going to talk a little about our assumed new defense, the 4-3 under, our base personnel and base assignments (expanding just a bit on Riott's fantastic tour de force), and how it compares to last year. I might also use stats. Beer will be drunk. And there was much rejoicing (yay!).

LDE: 2009 - Antonio Smith. 2008 - Whatever sacks of poop we just happened to have lying around (oh, Earl Cochran, why did thou forsake me?). In the base scheme, the LDE is assigned to the strong side 5 gap (outside of the RT), with primary responsibility as a run-stopper. Last year, Smith played in the Cards' chameleon-esque system of 4-3/3-4, and he was highly credited with helping strengthen the Cards D, especially on the run. However, the raw numbers don't bear this out. In fact, Football Outsiders ranks....*gulps*...Anthony Weaver as a better run-stopper than Smith. I still think there'll be a substantial upgrade at LDE thanks to signing Smith, but it's not like we signed Julius Peppers. I'm tempering my expectations for Smith's performance. (Yes, I actually watch the effin' games, not just look at stats. Stats are a handy, non-emotional measuring stick, though far from perfect in a game like football. But they are what they are in this case.).

NT: 2009 - Oh dear Jeebus. 2008 - Former 1st round pick and Rhodes scholar Travis Johnson. Look, Travis plays his little retarded ass off, but he's a horrible fit for this system...or any NFL system, for that matter. He neither has the quickness nor size. In the 4-3 under, the NT is expected to tie up multiple blockers, allowing (effectively) the MLB and WLB to make tackles. The only player on the roster with the potential to remotely fill this role is Frank "Evil Genius" Okam. According to a friend who went to practice yesterday (Saturday), Okam was working out with the first team and was getting quite a bit of feedback, though not necessarily positive reinforcement. Neither is DelJuan Robinson the answer here, though he would be a far better choice than Trent Green's nemesis.

For the record, the girl in the LBD has awesome boobies. (Late note: Wow, super-MILF just walked in. I might need a moment.)

DT: 2009 - Amobi Okoye. 2008 - Amobi Okoye. It's hard to label 2009 a make or break year for Okoye, but it's at least time for him to nut up and do something. Unlike Johnson, Okoye has the speed to become a premier interior pass rusher while still being able to handle the run, his responsibilities in this system. I believe that, if there is one player most likely to take a step forward under Bush, it's Okoye. Penetrate, disrupt, penetrate.

RDE: Mario. Maul quarterbacks. Make Reggie Bust piss his pants. Eat LTs. Teams may be able to exploit Mario's outside pass rush tendencies. He will need to play with more discipline as he is responsible for outside rushing containment, but his role his to kill QBs.

SLB: 2009 - Brian Cushing. 2008 - Zac Diles. Looking at the raw stats, Diles was amazingly efficient at being around the ball last year as he ranked 5th for being in on team plays. Of course, that's largely a function of being toastified by opposing offenses at every possible occasion as he could neither stop the run nor the pass. With the power of hindsight, the first game against the BE-SFs was a horrible harbinger for the rest of his year. Outsourcing to Riott:

The number one reason why more teams don't run a 4-3 Under is the difficulty in finding a player good enough to play the SAM. He needs to be big, strong, fast, and able to cover or rush the passer at any given time. He lines up on the outside edge of the TE at all times, and harasses him off the line, never allowing a free release, staying underneath on routes because you have your safety over the top. He also gets one-on-one matchups on the outside to pass rush. I'll take Brian Cushing versus Dallas Clark, Bo Scaife, or Marcedes Lewis any day of the week. He needs to be a great run defender as well, because he CANNOT be reached, or there is a huge running lane to the strong side.

Let's put it more bluntly: A large measure of our defensive success is reliant upon...a rookie SLB who often played more like a defensive end and had trouble in coverage in college?

Look, this isn't to say that Cushing won't be good. Hell, anything's going to be a massive improvement over Zac Diles. But if there's any defensive position where it's easy to cover pure incompetence, it's SLB. Diles, I believe, proved that last year (remember when his injury was a "big blow?"). Rookies are always a massive wild card, and Cushing is no exception. For our defense to play at at least a moderate level, thus for the Texans to have a decent chance at the playoffs, we are putting a helluva lot of hope on Cushing's allegedly 'roided shoulders.

MLB: 2009 and 2008: DeMeco Ryans. DeMeco's role is to be a traditional, instinctive MLB...which, you know, shouldn't be much of a stretch. Football Outsiders has him ranked as pretty mediocre, and there may be an unfortunate amount of credence to that analysis. Ryans' ankle has given him trouble the past couple of years, but when he's fully healthy, this should be an excellent role for him. With the ankle problems, he has been noticeably slower.

WLB: 2009 - Xavier Adibi or Zac Diles. 2008 - The bones formerly known as Morlon Greenwood. Again outsourced to Riott:

Your weakside linebacker in the 4-3 under needs to be your fastest and best coverage linebacker as he is protected by the defensive lineman in front of him and therefore must be able to get anywhere on the field pretty darn quick. He has control of the backside A (1) gap, and will either shoot the gap on inside runs or scrape over on outside runs. If the play is to his side, he is the primary pursuit to the outside as well. On coverage situations, he generally plays short middle and helps out where he needs to be. Adibi, due to his speed and coverage skills, is a great WLB for the 4-3 Under. He will be allowed to make more plays because he will be harassed significantly less by offensive lineman.

In limited action, Adibi wasn't bad. But after Diles' injury (broken leg), it's imperative Adibi win that battle, as Diles will lose a step or two. More importantly, Adibi has the speed to fly around the field. I've got a feeling about Adibi, but health is a skill, and it's one Adibi has not displayed well.

As for Morlon's collapse from not-badness? I blame Matt. For the record, I also blame Matt for my impotence. Can I use that word here?

CBs: 2009 - Fred Bennett, Jacques Reeves, Dunta Robinson. 2008 - Fred Bennett, Jacques Reeves, Dunta Robinson, Petey Faggins. We don't have a great idea about coverage schemes, but it's likely to be simple with a focus on man coverage. Frenchy was one of the most targeted CBs in football last year, which is understandable as he was the worst CB not named Petey I saw in 2007, but he was solidly average. Twas a nice surprise, to say the least, and if we can get that guy a swivel for his neck, dare I say he might become above-average?

Dunta will likely be in the classic CB1 spot, but I don't think he deserves it. Yes, I should give him a mulligan for last year, but he was simply horrible. Bennett wasn't any better, but something tells me coaching and scheme are also to blame. Aside from Okoye, if there's somebody I expect to jump ahead thanks to the new coaching and scheme, it's Bennett. Overall, CB coverage will be simple.

Ss: 2009 - Nick Ferguson and Eugene Wilson. 2008 - Nick Ferguson and Eugene Wilson (Smoooooooove Will, we hardly knew you). Part 2 of my major pain points on the D. The safeties need to be fairly interchangeable in order to adapt to offensive schemes. As "well" as Wilson played for us last year, it's not entirely fair to have similar expectations for 2009. In many ways, it was a career statistical outlier (see also: Rosenfels 2007), and he really wasn't all that great anyway. As for Nick Ferguson, he was simply horrible, one of the worst safeties in the league, especially against the pass.

In the 4-3 under, both safeties need to be versatile, capable of handling both the run and pass. I have absolutely no faith we have a *safety* on our roster capable of handling these types of assignments.

We do, however, have two CBs who are mighty interesting candidates to do so. On that old, bloodied blog, I fantasized often about sliding Dunta to S, allowing him to use his range. Yes, he is under-sized, and he most certainly wouldn't be worth $10MM/year there, but it's an interesting possibility. The other is Glover Quin. Yes yes, the team wants him at CB and blah blah blah. Whatev. Like Dunta, Glover may not have the ideal size, but I'd prefer to have a couple of ballhawks at S rather than hitters. Maybe it's the whiplash speaking, seeing how we have had such a tendency to give up huge gains at will.

Summary: I'll go into more detail on specific assignments in the next post, but I've been working on this one for over two hours and I need more beer. Anyway, here's how I see things:

No true NT
Relying on a rookie at SLB
Major question mark at WLB
Safeties not reliable in this scheme

This is little different than before the draft. We addressed the issue at SLB, whether I like the pick or not. But we still have major, gaping holes at DT, possibly WLB, and at one, if not both, S positions. On the whole, we are returning eight of 11 starters last year (hopefully just seven). It's realistically unfair to expect substantial changes to our all-around performance, especially seeing how we are returning some really not so good players.

Scheme change or not, our best case scenario is we have the 17th best defense in the league. Best case. Most probable is we are still a mid-20s defense, capable of bipolar performance depending on the competition. It took the first game of last year's pre-season to see exactly how poor the D was. We may not have such insight this year (I hope, above all, we disguise our schemes until Week 1), but we will have a good idea of our talent.

Edit: I meant to, but forgot to mention, that I believe we'll see a ton of rotation throughout the season, especially on the D-line. It's something called depth, a pretty foreign concept around these parts.

Excitement....And Trepidation

bigfatdrunk — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 18:57:09 -0000

See that picture above? I'll take a moment to let you look. Done?

So, I've got a question for ya: Is our season riding on that picture? Or this one?

Via assets.houstontexans.com

That's Frank Bush, our new defensive coordinator, in case you didn't know.

See, I've had kind of a crazy but super stressful week this week. Two good friends of mine are hurting, one was in the hospital, and my streak of avoiding a relative's funeral will be broken next weekend. Fudge. Basically, this has led to a lot of sleepless nights with thoughts often wandering around to the Texans. More specifically, what am I going to write about?

But I'm worried. As I mentally map out the team, I keep falling back into the trap that our defense is going to suck. I've read and analyzed the Football Outsiders 2009 Almanac, and there's no way around the fact that our defense was last year and has been historically horrific every year .

I'm not going to go into much detail yet, but when you look at our defense, there are only two personnel changes: Brian Cushing in for Zac Diles, and Antonio Smith replacing the corpses that played at LDE last year. Obviously, the latter will be a tremendous upgrade, and the former will be an upgrade, but how much?

Otherwise, we are going to need to put ~~a bu~~ ~~a fu~~ a boat-load of faith in Frank Bush and what appears to be our new base defense, the 4-3 under. Is this enough to take us from the 29th best defense (out of 32) to 20th? Or 15th? And how much do we need to improve defensively to turn us into a legitimate playoff contender?

I'm worried, I admit. Theoretically, with a fairly young squad and a change in coaching philosophy, our defense should improve. But with the notable exception of the BE-SFs, each team expects to improve year after year. It helps considerably that we all know and understand Richard Smith is dysfunctionally moronic, but we still need to improve substantially this year.

I'd like to hear from y'all and what you think about the defense. What are the coaching and scheme changes worth? Are we going to rely too heavily on ~~Vigo~~ ~~Steven Seagal~~ Brian Cushing to make an immediate impact under this new system? Smith most certainly seems like a good piece in this scenario.

Am I stressing for no particular reason?

Oh, and I just noticed that we signed Jeff Zgonina, last year's league leader in being an ineffectual speed bump. And you wonder why I stress.

More Dominant Defensive Line - Titans Vs. Texans Part II

Jake — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 15:37:46 -0000

On Tuesday I wrote an article regarding Adam Schein’s theory that the Houston Texans’ defensive line will be better in 2009 than the unit belonging to the Tennessee Titans. I laid out my case of why Adam might be right on this account, specifically because of the loss of defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. My contention was that it wasn’t the loss of Fat Albert alone that would cause the Titans defensive line to struggle; rather, the absence of such a dynamic player would expose the rest of the defensive lineman’s weaknesses.

Paul Kuharsky of ESPN was kind enough to link that article as he had previously linked Adam Schein’s column that spurred this debate. Paul runs a great site specifically dedicated to the AFC South. Not only does he have great information pertaining to all four teams in the division, but he does a great job of trying to interact with fans by conducting live chats like the one he will hold on Friday at 2:00 P.M. EST. I’m sorry to say that the Texans are a little underrepresented on his site, which is something I think we should try to fix.

Paul made a point when linking the article that was justified:

"Two words that have not been factored into this enough: Travis Johnson."

Not only was Kuharsky justified in that statement, but if he or anyone else who had read the article had taken a step further and identified my one-sided criticism toward the Titans defensive line that would have been justified as well. I assumed that any naysayers of Schein’s original argument would automatically focus on how good the Titans’ line was rather than how bad the Texans’ was, so I centered the article on disproving the former line of thought rather than the latter. In hindsight this line of thinking left my point of why I agree with Schein half stated. Allow me to finish what I started.

All of the defensive units for the Texans have been substandard for a long time now, including the line. Since I examined the performance of the Titans line over the last two years because of Haynesworth playing for a new contract in both seasons, I will use the same timeframe for any historical analysis of the Texans’ line as well.

You can’t have a discussion about Houston’s defense, much less the line, without starting with Mario Williams. After being hampered by a foot injury in his rookie year, Williams has accumulated 26 sacks in the last two seasons, becoming one of the most dominant pass rushers in the league. An average of 56 tackles over those two years also shows that Williams is stingy against the run as well and is not just a one-dimensional pass rusher. Even more impressive, Williams has spent the majority of the last two years getting double-teamed by offensive lineman.

The reason why Williams was facing two blockers on almost every play was because of the lack of talent among the rest of the defensive ends. Anthony Weaver showed early and often that he could simply not produce in a 4-3 scheme after leaving Baltimore’s 3-4. Tim Bulman showed brief flashes last year in 14 games but garnered a mere 4 sacks and 18 tackles. Even commonly facing one blocker because of the respect given to Williams, the two of them still couldn’t produce regularly.

This lack of production was the catalyst for signing Antonio Smith at the onset of free agency. Smith comes from the recently successful Arizona Cardinals, who benefited from Smith’s great play in the 2008 playoffs. Smith won’t wow you as a pass rusher as exemplified by just 9 sacks in the last two seasons, but it was his jack-of-all-trades role that enticed the Texans into targeting him early. Smith can not only play stout against the run, but he can slide inside and rush from the defensive tackle position on obvious passing situations like third downs. Just like I said about Jovan Haye, no one knows how Smith will perform in the Texans' system, but Smith has a better track record than Haye had in Tampa Bay.

Connor Barwin was also added to the defensive end rotation via the draft to address the lack of production at the position opposite Mario Williams. Barwin burst onto the scene after an all around amazing performance at the 2009 NFL Scouting Combine. Barwin has the ability to be a great pass rusher in the NFL, but he is still very green, having only one defensive season under his belt in college, albeit a very productive one. Barwin will see the field in passing situations and special teams, but the true determining factor for full-time play will be his ability to improve against the run.

As to Kuharsky’s original point, Travis Johnson has been terrible since being draft in the first round of the 2005 draft. I have no doubt that Johnson had incredible upside when coming into the league, but obviously lack of work ethic and caring got the better of him. He should be motivated by playing in the last year of his contract, but if the way he showed up to OTAs is any indication, even a new contract is not enough to overcome his sloth. Frank Okam has been the common answer to who will replace Johnson, but he has yet to see significant playing time. DelJuan Robinson, while playing well in the Tennessee victory at the end of the season last year, probably doesn’t have the talent to be a permanent starter.

The real wild card on the Texans' line is Amobi Okoye. After a breakout rookie season in 2007 in which the penetrating under-tackle tallied 5.5 sacks, Okoye significantly regressed last year. Amobi was hampered in the beginning of the year with a high ankle sprain and an apparent lack of offseason conditioning, but came on strong in the end of the year. Okoye is the same age as most rookies drafted this year, but he has two years of NFL experience under his belt. His regression is probably the biggest reason why Mario Williams experienced a slight dip in his production, even though it was very slight (14 to 12 sacks).

Even with my biased spin, the Texans look lacking in comparison with the recent success of the Titans' defensive line. As stated above, there are many reasons to expect great things from this unit in 2009 but past experience is not at the top of that list. One thing that both defensive lines had in common in the last two years was the presence of dynamic players. The title of dynamic is assigned because of a level of talent that creates opportunities for players around them.

It’s this difference that tips the scales in the Texans' favor in my opinion. Both Mario Williams and Albert Haynesworth are such rare talents that, when they are lost, it is hard to replace them. The Texans don’t have to address that problem this year whereas the Titans do. Furthermore, the only player that the Texans lost was an unproductive defensive end, and they added two players in his stead. Neither is certain to be great, but that’s two opportunities to get better at that position, which shouldn’t be that hard given the utter lack of past production.

The other reality is that the Titans not only expect more from their defensive line, they need more. The success of their team has been based off of a dominant pressure defense which allows a ball control offense. The Texans have had an offense, especially last year, that was good enough to win with marginal success from the defense at large. If the Titans' defense regresses at all, it will require an offensive change in philosophy that they may not be able to achieve with Kerry Collins and Vince Young. The Texans, on the other hand, are entering their first year with a healthy Matt Schaub and a second-year offensive coordinator. If their defense manages to improve past 22nd in the league, they very well may obtain their first winning season. In summation, the Texans’ defensive line has a decent chance to be better than the Titans, but even if they’re not, the team still has a chance to benefit more.

Know Thy Enemy 2009: Houston Texans - Sunday October 25

Fooch — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 15:00:24 -0000

So much for posting these every Wednesday. Well, I think you guys will survive with getting it a day late. This week we look at an intriguing opponent, at an intriguing time of the season for the 49ers - @ Houston, coming off the bye week. More importantly, it's the start of a 3-game jaunt versus the AFC South: @ Houston, @ Indianapolis, vs. Tennessee. Arguably the toughest 3-game stretch all season.

The Houston Texans are represented at SB Nation by Tim over at Battle Red Blog. Head on over and enjoy the constant stream of Dunta Robinson contract updates.

Overview
I have to admit, Matt Schaub is one of my favorite non-49ers in the league. A college buddy of mine was a huge Virginia fan and he turned me on to Schaub back in his Wahoo days. Schaub took a very solid step forward last season, but early season struggles for the team, yet again, sumbarined any playoff chances. They finished 8-8 for the second straight year, but once again they fell short of the playoffs in the always tough AFC South.

The Texans were in excellent shape on offense. Their offense finished the season ~~11th~~ 14th in the league thanks to a career year from Andre Johnson and a huge rookie season for 3rd round pick Steve Slaton. That seems like a recipe for success. Unfortunately, their defense finished a robust 29th in the league overall, equally abysmal against the run and the pass.

Additions
In the draft, the Texans added some defensive talent early on in OLB Brian Cushing and DE Connor Barwin. To say Battle Red Blog was not pleased with the Cushing pick is putting it mildly. On the other hand, they seem to be excited about Connor Barwin bringing a pass rushing presence to join the formerly panned Mario Williams. On offense, the team drafted Antoine Caldwell in the hopes that he'll unseat Chris Myers at center.

Elsewhere, the biggest offseason addition has to be the duo of Dan Orlovsky and Rex Grossman........ok, maybe not. The Texans were fairly active in free agency, adding a lot of depth guys like Cato June and hoping to find some defensive line answers in Shaun Cody and Antonio Smith. Cody has yet to reach his potential, so we'll see if he's able to provide some answers in Houston. We'll see if Smith can build off his solid playoff performance for the Cardinals.

Subtractions
The Texans didn't do too bad in the minus department. Most of their losses came from releases that were just as much to do with ineffective performance as anything else. The notables include Ahman Green, Will Demps, Ephraim Salaam and Anthony Weaver among many others. As you'll see in the Q&A below, the question becomes who will be a sufficient backup to Steve Slaton now?

2009 Questions & Answers
Personally, I'm most curious to see how the running back unit plays out for the Texans. Steve Slaton blew up in his rookie season without much of anything in the way of help (294 yards from Ahman Green). There is of course the worry of a sophomore slump. However, beyond that is who will help out in the backfield? Ryan Moats? The team did not add any running backs of significance so at this point Slaton will have to carry the load.

The offense seems well put together otherwise. The question then becomes whether the defense will show some improvement. They've added some talented football players, but it's tough to tell if they've really sufficiently solved the problems they had last year. As great as that offense can look, it won't matter much if they can't stop the other team.

vs. San Francisco
In our schedule discussion, ProfessorBigelow and I both predicted a 49ers win. As I said in the discussion, if the 49ers are going to take that proverbial step forward as a team, this is a must-win game for them. At the same time, I think this ends up a battle down to the wire. While the teams are built in very different ways, I think they're similar in the sense that they're both on the verge of taking that step into the playoff promise land. A loss here could send the Texans to yet another .500 season and home for the playoffs. Either way, I think this has the potential to be the most entertaining game of the season for 49ers fans.

How Much More "Super" Can Mario Get?

Mike Kerns — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:00:27 -0000

Don’t worry; this isn’t another "Was Mario the right pick?" write up. No, by now that should be a foregone conclusion. All of us that were on the Reggie Bush bandwagon (myself included), or the belief that Vince Young was on a collision course to win multiple Super Bowls, have had our portion of crow by now. If not, it is time to do some serious inner-reflection.

What I want to discuss is has Mario William’s reached his ceiling as an NFL pass rusher?

After an injury plagued war with plantar fascitis and facing more criticism than President Bush during his rookie campaign, he has already rose higher than most expected. A Pro Bowl alternate in his second year and a Pro Bowl starter last season, Mario seems to have risen to the elite of NFL Defensive Ends.

What many of the national pundits neglect to mention is how Mario is doing this while being double teamed on every single play. Yet he registered third in the league in sacks in 2007 (14.0) and sixth in 2008 (12.0) with virtually no help. Yes, I consider the corpse formerly known as Anthony Weaver as no help.

This season, the front office decided to get a bookend opposite Mario in free agent Antonio Smith. Fresh off a trip to Super Bowl XLIII, I am one of the fans who was in favor of this signing. If anything, simply because teams cant just throw two or three guys at Mario on every single snap anymore. Antonio Smith has never been accused of being an elite pass rusher, but he does demand some attention. He also provides experience and veteran leadership to a young defense. This can only help Mario, who is only going to be 24 years old and in his fourth season this year.

I think this is the year that people no longer attach Mario’s name to Reggie Bush or Vince Young. This is the year that his name is mentioned with players like Jared Allen, Dwight Freeney and Julius Peppers. Names that matter. Names that he should be mentioned with.

Do I think Mario has reached his ceiling already? Not even close. With better supporting players around him, I think this is the year that Mario truly becomes "Super."

Is Your Seat Getting Warm Gary Kubiak?

Jake — Tue, 05 May 2009 11:54:32 -0000

Now that the 2009 NFL Draft is officially in the books, NFL connoisseurs’ speculation has switched from predictions of the draft to those of the upcoming season. Although final rosters won’t be determined for months, people feel that they can predict how teams will perform in 2009 based off of choices that were made or not made during the draft. In the eyes of hometown fans, their team is almost always good enough at this point in the season to be a playoff or even Super Bowl contender because false hope is better than no hope.

In the case of the Texans though, it’s not just Houston fans that are predicting a playoff birth at this current juncture. After a solid draft, the Texans are a trendy pick to contend for a wild card spot or even the AFC South title. And why wouldn’t they be? After two 8-8 seasons, the Texans are the epitome of the phrase, “On the verge”. Even Texans owner Bob McNair, who usually keeps a low profile with the media, recently stated that he would be disappointed if the Texans don’t make the playoffs this year. While it seems like any NFL owner would obviously be disappointed every year that their franchise doesn’t make the postseason, the fact that McNair felt inclined to say it publicly is as close to being a prediction as possible despite the fact that McNair explicitly stated that he wasn’t making one.

With these extra expectations comes added pressure. This pressure has displayed itself the most in the assertion that if the Texans miss the playoffs again this year that fourth year head coach Gary Kubiak will lose his job. From now until the beginning of the 2009 season, whenever you hear Kubiak’s name in the national media you will almost certainly hear the phrase “hot seat” along with it. Naturally our first reaction as Houston fans is to think that this notion is ridiculous because we have an inclination to be loyal, but I think we owe it to ourselves to think about whether the Texans would be better off without Kubiak after yet another absence of a winning season this year.

Gary Kubiak became the second head coach in the brief history of the Houston Texans after he took over control of the team before the 2006 season. Kubiak inherited a team that had managed to win only two games the year before after similar playoff expectations proved to woefully unrealistic. There were some solid players on the Texans roster, but besides Andre Johnson and Dunta Robinson the team lacked elite performers. Kubiak quickly remedied that problem by finding future cornerstones Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, Eric Winston and Owen Daniels in his first draft. After this marquee draft class, Kubiak and his chosen general manager Rick Smith added several key players the next two years such as Steve Slaton, Amobi Okoye, Fred Bennet, Zac Diles and Xavier Adibi.

Despite the success of Kubiak’s philosophy of building the team through the draft, the first ever winning season has still evaded the grasp of the youngest NFL franchise. One obvious reason may be the lack of premier free agency success. Several veteran running backs were brought in to fit Kubaik’s newly instated zone blocking/running scheme, but ball carriers Ahman Green, Chris Brown and Ron Dayne were repeatedly too injured to provide a positive impact. Defensive end Anthony Weaver was signed in 2006 to be a rushing partner for Mario Williams, but was incredibly unproductive recording only one sack in three seasons with Houston.

Although not a technically a free agent, quarterback Matt Schaub is still doing his best to quiet naysayers. In 2007 Kubiak determined that David Carr was not the signal caller of the future so he and Rick Smith made a deal with Atlanta to send two second round draft picks in return for their promising backup quarterback, Schaub. Despite playing well, many believe that the jury is still out on Schaub because of his inability to remain healthy over a 16 game season. Schaub has also shown carelessness with the ball at times as evidenced by his 19 interceptions and 17 fumbles in the last two years, as opposed to 26 touchdowns.

The true Achilles Heel of the Texans has been something that Kubiak never had to deal with before his ascension to head coaching status; the defense. As a career offensive player and coach, Kubiak has had to learn on the job how to develop a defensive roster and coaching staff, and there have been growing pains. Kubiak hired Richard Smith as defensive coordinator in 2006, but only lasted three seasons when he was fired after the defensive squad finished 23rd in the league in 2008. Head defensive assistant and linebackers coach Frank Bush was promoted to defensive coordinator and has promised an attacking, pass rush centric defense which sharply contrasts Smith’s read and react style of defense.

All of these reasons are cause for concern and seem to be fuel for the fire that warms the hot seat, but it’s important to look at the recent accomplishments of the Texans for the purpose of discerning whether progress is being made. In 2008, Hurricane Ike prohibited the Texans from playing their first home game until October, and that phenomenon coupled with a tough opening schedule and poor fourth quarter play kept the Texans winless through their first four games. Despite this setback, the Texans finished the rest of the season with an 8-4 record including a 5-1 run in the last six games.

Even though the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde act was not ideal, it was heartening for Texans fans to see the team play so well in the end season. Even more encouraging is that the defense started to play a lot better during the last six games. The Texans gave up an embarrassing 28.7 points per game in the first ten games, but were able to reduce that number to 17.83 points per game in the home stretch. Also, the Texans averaged over one less turnover per game in the last six games (1.33) than they did in the first ten (2.4).

All these stats are great, but how realistically enthused should fans be about performing well against teams with a combined record of 42-54? While it is encouraging to see a team playing to its potential, six games shouldn’t be used to judge Kubiak’s performance, but neither should a single season. To judge a head coach, different owners have different timetables. Bob McNair decided to end the tenure of Dom Capers, the first head coach he hired, after four seasons which would suggest that there is justification to the ominous hot seat talk, but upon further inspection, that might not be fair.

In 2005, the first year that the Texans had reasonable playoff aspirations based on improving win totals every season prior, the wheels came off. After winning seven games in 2004, the Texans managed to win only two which qualified for the worst record in the league and the first pick in the subsequent draft. Capers probably wasn’t on the chopping block until that fall from grace.

So that brings us to Kubiak and the question of whether he is truly on the hot seat… Maybe. To say that there is no way that Kubiak is in danger of losing his job would be setting him and those of you that like him up for the same fall that Capers took. Any win total less than 6 would have to have pretty good rationale to excuse Kubiak for such a poor performance.

On the flip side of that coin though, to say that he is gone if he doesn’t make the playoffs is asinine. The Texans play in what has been the consistently toughest division in football over the last four or five years which may be getting a little softer but still has one of the best quarterbacks of all time and a defensive line coach who would be a shoe in if position coaches could be inducted into the hall of fame. Also, there has been at least one team in the AFC for the last three years that has won at least ten games and still missed the playoffs. Does anyone in their right mind think that the first ever winning record would be the impetus to fire the franchise’s most successful coach it’s ever had? Keep in mind that Kubiak has a 22-26 record as a head coach after inheriting what technically was the worst team in football at the time. That’s only 4 games below .500.

Speaking of .500, Even another season with that winning percentage, although amazingly frustrating, would not cause me to call for Kubiak’s head. Why? Because stability is the backbone of successful franchises. I agree that there comes a time when you have to cut the cord with a coach that simply cannot take you to the promised land, but unless we promoted a coach from within, the system would be completely overhauled and we would find ourselves in the same situation we had when Kubiak took over; the wrong players to fit that new system. With that development, we would be waiting for at least two to three more years until we could actually have fun watching postseason football.

I’m not trying to make excuses for a coach I like; I’m simply trying to let cooler heads prevail, especially until there is a reason not to. Hopefully this is a completely irrelevant argument because the Texans do end up making the playoffs. I personally will be going into the season with the mindset that as long as the team doesn’t implode, I hope to see Kubaik’s rockabilly haircut on the sideline in 2010. Hopefully Bob McNair, the Texans players, and the majority of you feel the same way.

Ravens Draft History - Picking Late in the First Round

Rexx — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 14:23:30 -0000

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Many articles about the Baltimore Ravens draft history has focused on their first round success, as well as GM Ozzie Newsome's ability to find that star player later on the second day of the draft. However, this coming Saturday afternoon, the Ravens will be picking at the 26th position in the first round (actually, it will probably be Saturday evening before the Ravens' turn comes up). Therefore, in comparison, I decided to look at the past drafts that Baltimore has had when they picked 20th or higher in the first two rounds. Here's what I found they have been able to accomplish picking in the latter parts of each round. Remember, I'm only looking at those drafts where the Ravens picked in positions 20-32 of that round. They may have taken a player earlier in the round when they had multiple picks in a round. However, for purposes of comparison, I am only looking at the later picks in that round. So here is what and who I found:

1996: Round 1: Ray Lewis (LB - #26); Round 2: DeRon Jenkins (DB - #25) NOTE: Lewis of course, is the all time best Raven ever, and Jenkins was a bust.

1997: Round 2: Kim Herring (S - #28) NOTE: Herring was a major contributor when the Ravens won the Super Bowl, but then signed with the St. Louis Rams as a free agent and dissolved into mediocrity like so many former Ravens.

1998-2000: No picks in the 20's in either round.

2001: Round 1: Todd Heap (TE - #31); Round 2: Gary Baxter (DB - #31) NOTE: Heap went on to Pro Bowl status but has been underachieving recently while Baxter was looking to be a fixture here but then signed with the Cleveland Browns, got injured shortly thereafter in his first season there and never played again. Meanwhile the Ravens signed veteran cornerback Samari Rolle to replace Baxter.

2002: Round 1: Ed Reed (S - #24); Round 2: Anthony Weaver (DT - #20) NOTE: Reed, just like Ray Lewis, is a cornerstone of this current Ravens defense and arguably should have been the NFL's Defensive POY in 2008. Weaver was a solid performer as a reserve on the d-line but is no longer with the team.

2003-2004: No picks in the 20's in either round.

2005: Round 1: Mark Clayton (WR - #22); Round 2: Dan Cody (LB - #21), Adam Terry (OL - #32) NOTE: Clayton improved greatly in 2008 with a solid QB to throw to him, and Terry is an important piece on the greatly improved offensive line. Unfortunately, Cody hurt his knee in his first Training Camp and then re-injured himself and never really got on the field in his short career.

2006: Round 2: Chris Chester (G - #24) NOTE: Chester has been a valuable reserve and played very respectable for most of last season at RG for the injured Marshall Yanda.

2007: Round 1: Ben Grubbs (G - #29) NOTE: Grubbs started at RG as a rookie and is now firmly entrenched at LG as one of the league's best at that position.

2008: Round 2: Ray Rice (RB - #24) NOTE: Rice might have been one of the steals of the draft last season until injury and a logjam at RB limited his contributions. However, he is figured to get a significant piece of the action this season, as he brings a change of pace and excitement to the field every time he touches the ball.

So there's our picks late in the first two rounds in Ravens' team history. Hopefully, GM Ozzie Newsome will pull off another stunner that, while we might not know how significant the pick is for a couple of years, they will surely contribute right away to what is looking like a serious run at the playoffs and the Super Bowl.

Did The Texans' Best 2009 Draft Decision Come In February?

Jake — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 03:00:28 -0000

These days I spend a lot of time contemplating the proceedings of April 25th and 26th, a/k/a the 2009 NFL Draft. I find myself dissecting every piece of NFL news or rumor for the purpose of analyzing how it will affect the Texans’ draft. In my opinion there are two distinct parts of the offseason, and the draft is the end of one offseason (where teams jockey with each other for players, whether they are free agents or draftees) and the beginning of another offseason (where teams evaluate and coach the players they have assembled). Yet, the draft is appealing not only because it is the transition point of the NFL offseason, but also because it makes every NFL fan, casual and diehard alike, believe they can be general manager. I am no different.

The mistake that most amateur draft prognosticators often make while predicting a specific team’s draft is that they speculate on each pick separately. No general manager picks this way. I’m sure most, if not all, G.M.s would tell you that while there is a little wiggle room, you have to go into the draft with a specific strategy. That strategy is simply a result of identifying your team’s needs, prioritizing those needs and coming up with plan to adapt those priorities to the talent available when you pick. Juggling needs, priorities and talent in just the right way in order to produce a good draft is extremely difficult. The Texans, however, made that task considerably easier for themselves over the weekend.

Note from the Author: This post is about a day or two late and I apologize. Things came up.

On Saturday, the Texans signed DE Antonio Smith to a 5 year, $35 million dollar contract that included $12.5 million guaranteed. The majority of the reactions to the Smith acquisition among Texans fans seem to be generally lukewarm, with minorities on both the positive and negative ends of the spectrum. This being said, if you have the same tendency that I do and immediately analyzed how this affected our draft, you were probably on the positive end of the spectrum.

It’s wasn’t that difficult to identify the Texans’ needs at the end of the 2008 season. The Offense that ranked 3rd in the league, which, while not perfect, did not need nearly as much help as a defense that ranked 22nd. Despite having Mario Williams, our pass rush was abysmal and we needed a bookend defensive end to play opposite of him. Zac Diles and Xavier Adibi played well when on the field and proved to be great late round selections, but both showed some inability to stay healthy and therefore the Texans could have used more depth at linebacker. As noted by Chris at HoustonDiehards, the Texans have never put much stock in drafting safeties, which has translated to less than stellar play historically. In my opinion, these were the three biggest needs at the beginning of the offseason.

Placing a priority on our needs is always much more difficult than identifying them. There has been a long standing chicken-egg style debate as to whether immediate help at pass rush will help the coverage or vice versa. While tempted to take the obvious, fence-straddling stance of “both”, I tend to stray more to the pass rush in order to help the coverage argument. As such, DE was the number one priority at the beginning of the offseason. In a 4-3 defense, one legitimate DE is simply not enough, which Texans fans learned the hard way last year. As for deciding on the second spot, it was a tie between LB and S. My thinking was it would be smart to transform a good LB corps to a great one for first year defensive coordinator Frank Bush, who was not only a former LB coach but also used to play the position as well, and the prospect of having a S that can make even half of the impact plays that Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu is tantalizing.

Since both positions need to be addressed, the talent depth at both positions would break the tie. Our need for a competent DE was so great though that our draft strategy was in danger of changing from “best defensive player available” to “best defensive end available,” which might have caused us to reach. Reaching isn’t necessarily bad because you never get a good player; it’s bad because by taking a good player too early you often miss out on other good players who might be able to help elsewhere. The only way we could truly have a "best defensive player available" mentality and therefore avoid the possibility of reaching for a DE was to do something to address the need before the draft. In other words, acquire a free agent.

Free agency acquisition is a difficult endeavor in which the Texans haven’t shown a great deal of prowess in the past. High-priced free agents rarely play well enough to justify the small fortune you have to spend to outbid other teams. On the other hand, as with anything in life, if you pay someone dirt you rarely get anything in return but dirt. With this in mind and based on the DEs available in free agency, Antonio Smith was a brilliant middle-of-the-road choice.

Smith is 6’4”/285 pounds, which allows him to play LDE. He was drafted in the fifth round of the 2004 draft and was active for only 14 games in his first two seasons. His coaches, however, claim that he is an incredibly hard worker, which has allowed him to get better every season. His 14.5 career sacks shouldn’t blow you away, but he was utilized more for his run stuffing abilities, evident by his 84 tackles over the last two seasons. He also increased his stock significantly by his excellent postseason play, includeing a forced fumble in the Super Bowl. But none of this is new to you. Those who like the move believe the stats and the notion that his full potential has not yet been reached. Those who don’t like the move the similarities between Smith and Anthony Weaver abound and the late season improvement suggests he was playing for a contract. No matter which category you fall under, you should be happy. It’s a win/win situation.

It’s obvious to the point of insulting your intelligence to say that if Smith plays well it should be considered a win, but think about it for a second. We’re paying him $7 million a year on average, which is pretty low by D-Line free agent standards. Would you have given Anthony Weaver an extra $3.4 million for 5.5 sacks last year? If Smith does not progress or regress at all, that’s what you’ll get. He’s only 27 years old, so the notion that he can still get better isn’t a crazy one, especially considering the increased playing time he’ll see in Houston.

If he doesn’t do well, we have other options. By not going after a higher priced DE like Chris Canty or Julius Peppers, the Texans aren’t putting all their eggs in one basket. Peppers would have likely cost us something in the range of a first and second round picks just to have the privilege to turn around and sign him to a contract comparable to the one Haynesworth just received, and Canty just cost the Giants $42 million including $17.25 million in guarantees. If we paid that amount, it would be hard to justify drafting another DE. As it stands now it is still logical to draft a DE as early as the second round, and that might be perfect.

On first glance, the talent at the DE position looks deep in this year’s draft, but that might be deceiving. Many of the “top DE prospects” will likely be converted to 3-4 pass rushing specialist LBs (or "Jack LBs," as they’re sometimes called). Brian Orakpo, Aaron Maybin, Larry English, and Connor Barwin might all be playing LB this time next year. This considerably thins out the crowd for us, considering we are looking for a true 4-3 DE. Michael Johnson and Robert Ayers are two of the highest rated classic 4-3 DE’s. Taking either one of them with the 15th overall pick would be way too early, but both would be considered a steal with the 46th overall pick. By not having to reach for one in the first round, we can help our pass rush by drafting a SLB capable of rushing the passer, and hope we can pick up the DE of the future in the second or third round.

Even if Smith doesn’t play well, he’ll be good for our unknown rookie DE’s development. Say for conversation's sake we end up drafting Johnson. Johnson is still undersized and would not defend against the run well, so even if our pass defense would benefit from the increased pressure on the quarterback, our rush defense would suffer. Smith is big and athletic enough that he can move to the inside on passing downs, and has had success at getting to the QB from the interior, which would be ideal for Frank Bush’s “D lineman getting down the field” scheme. This would allow Mario to play LDE and Johnson RDE on 3rd down. That’s quite a combination. If the Texans had not picked up Smith and reached for Johnson in the first, we would have been up in arms over selecting a player before his time who could only get on the field for third downs.

So we covered the obvious win-win situation if Smith plays well in our system. If he doesn’t play well, it’s still an improvement over Weaver and hopefully we select the right rookie to eventually replace Smith once he learns the NFL and bulks up. It’s not like we paid him a fortune, and his contract seems to be structured in a way that it won't put us in a bind to cut him if he turns out to be a flop (although with a possible uncapped year on the horizon, nothing is certain). Furthermore, we still have the cap space to re-sign Dunta, DeMeco and Owen to long term deals if Rick Smith so chooses.

The ultimate win is if both Smith and the rookie pan out. One attribute that great defenses have in common is the element of unpredictability. Imagine how different it would be if opposing left and right tackles suddenly had to prepare for Williams, Smith and Ayers during the week prior because they didn’t know who was going to line up across from them on Sunday, as opposed to preparing for just Williams as they undoubtedly did in 2008.

The Giants' defensive philosophy the last five years has been that you can’t have enough quality DEs. Look where it has gotten them. Consequently, New York was Smith's next stop for a team visit, but he never made it. I usually don’t subscribe to the “other people like him so he must be good” line of thinking, but not many defenses put more of an emphasis or have more success with pressure than the G-men do, and that is what we crave. Overall, I’m happy with the move because it gives the Texans' draft strategy wiggle room. What do you think, BRB?