SB Nation - Darrell Reid

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

2 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall, left, avoids the tackle of Indianapolis Colts linebacker Gary Brackett in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. Marshall had 21 receptions for 200 yards in the game. The Colts defeated the Broncos 28-16. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Christmas is coming - and I, for one, am hoping for a much more joyous holiday season than I experienced last December. All I got for Christmas last year was the Broncos' historic collapse, and all I had to give was the one scenario that could possibly be worse than the season-ending Chargers game (it involved hypothetically cutting an apple, slipping, and stabbing myself in the groin WHILE watching that game).

I'm not much for moral victories, but today in Donny Deutschland, I will talk about why I feel better about Sunday's loss than I have about any Broncos loss in years. There's no time to waste, so let's not waste any time. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. I learned on Sunday that what I suspected was the case, was in fact, the case. That is, the Broncos can play with Indianapolis, at Indianapolis. It happened a little differently than I thought it would, but the Broncos competed, and got back in the game after getting down in really ugly fashion. Consider these statistics, as I pretend that I care about statistics for a moment. The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 posessions. These measures would tend to indicate victory, but in this case, the Broncos fell a little short.

For next time, we can internalize a few thoughts:

a. The Broncos have the players and schemes to cover the Colts receivers, pressure Peyton Manning, and generally disrupt their offense.

b. The Broncos have the players and schemes to move the ball at will against the Colts defense.

c. As a fan base, we all mistakenly thought to ourselves "Here we go again" when the Colts got up 21-0 after four possessions. We can take this game as a lesson that the past doesn't indicate the future. Those Broncos teams which got their doors blown off by the Colts passing game are definitely not these Broncos.

One general concern is that the Broncos could have run the ball better, and will need to next time. I felt the run scheme was too zone-heavy and horizontal, and it played into the Colts' plan to run-blitz the gaps. A smaller, faster team needs to be man-blocked with a vertical scheme. Those are guys you don't necessarily want moving laterally, because they're comfortable doing so.

The other concern is that at money time, Dallas Clark needed more and better attention. Josh Barrett needed to be on the field manning him up, because he's the best guy in the NFL at covering TEs man-to-man.

All in all, I am proud of the way the Broncos stayed in the game, despite some reasons that lesser men would take to quit. This was really a game which turned on a few plays, and I am pleased to know that the Broncos can compete with Indianapolis, unlike in past years. This week, it's the Raiders, and luckily, JaMarcus Russell will be under center again. Expect Elvis Dumervil to get some shots at him. The Broncos can take care of business at home, and position themselves well to make the postseason. Happy Raiders Week, friends.

2. Information From My Eyes, Broncos at Colts:

a. Andre' Goodman got beat on a crossing route by Pierre Garcon on the first offensive play of the game, and in the moment, I wondered if there was a major speed mismatch. Goodman settled down to play Garcon spectacularly the rest of the game, breaking up four well-thrown balls. Goodman has been terrific all year, but I'd call this his best game as a Bronco.

b. When the Broncos drafted Darcel McBath, I'd never heard of him. I'm very impressed with his play as a rookie, though, and he had a fantastic game Sunday. He separated Dallas Clark from the ball on a 3rd down, and also baited Peyton Manning into his third interception. It's a real bummer that he broke his forearm and is gone for the season, but he showed well when he got the opportunities. I look for him to make a serious run at Renaldo Hill's starting job next season.

c. I really "misunderestimated" the Colts' DTs, Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson. They both played fantastic, and drove the Broncos' interior players backward consistently.

d. Ryan Clady didn't play very well in the running game, which was a departure from what we've been seeing lately. He got pushed backward several times when he lost leverage, and he misread a few run blitzes, and didn't hit the right guy. He's young and growing, and we can only hope he learns from this game.

e. Brandon Marshall was spectacular, of course. It's obvious that Kyle Orton really trusts him to make plays at this point. I wish he trusted Eddie Royal a little more, though. The truth is, though, Royal hasn't come up with some plays when he's had chances to do so.

f. I was happy to see Jabar Gaffney back in the mix this week. He's a pro's pro, and the Broncos offense is better when he is involved.

g. I was pleased with what I saw from Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil, despite the Broncos' lack of sacks. Both played well against the run, and generated pressure against Manning.

h. Peyton Hillis isn't a very good lead blocker, and I think a key part of the trouble the running game had was with the loss of Spencer Larsen. Larsen has been knocking heads the last two weeks, and he wasn't there this time, obviously.

Hillis is a good RB, but he's a true HB, not a FB. The truth is, he is where he should be on the depth chart; the third RB for the Broncos. Zappa said that some DP posters were calling for Knowshon Moreno to be benched, and Hillis to get the starting job. That's not going to happen, and frankly, it's asinine. Hillis could get more opportunity to make plays, but he deserves to be behind Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. There's no question in my mind of that.

i. The Colts' last drive was enabled by missed tackles by Vonnie Holliday (first play of the series) and Mario Haggan (3rd down inside the Broncos 10).

j. Oh, Dallas Clark. Ty Law did a good job on him, but he often was assigned to cover Austin Collie. Wesley Woodyard is a good zone player, but he can't cover a Clark in man-to-man. That 4th-and-4 was badly schemed, because Brian Dawkins shouldn't be manned up on Clark, either.

Finally, at the end of the game, the approach should have been to look at the formation. The power was left, and the only receiving threat was Clark, playing with his hand down on the right side. You need somebody to drive him straight into the ground, so he can't get out in the pattern. That's how I would coach that situation, anyway. Tackle him when he pretends to block, without getting called for holding.

k. D.J. Williams had a very good game, except for the one stupid penalty. Darrell Reid got (another) one of those too, while we're at it.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games

a. I thought Thursday's Browns-Steelers game was pretty riveting, and I almost wish I went (but not quite). Several of my friends tried to get me to go, because everybody in the world was trying to dump their tickets. It was 12 degrees, with 50 mph winds, and felt negative-7 in Cleveland that night. That's a recipe for freezing your hind-parts off, as Omar would say.

The Browns are changing for the better, and I wonder if it saves Eric Mangini's job. They're doing some very interesting things, like using Mike Furrey at FS. He's played both ways in his career, but has been more of a WR in the NFL, and caught 98 passes for the Lions in 2006, which was second in the NFL.

He did some nice things at Safety in the game, and it reminded me of Troy Brown playing defense for the Patriots, though, as I mentioned, Furrey has played defense at the professional level. You have to be impressed with a player doing what it takes to help his team win.

b. A guy who I have always liked, who the Browns found for free is Matt Roth. He got on the wrong side of Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano in Miami, and they put him on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list, and then waived him in November. The Browns smartly claimed him, and he's played very well for the Browns thus far. The Sam position in a 3-4 is pretty hard to fill, because it's a unique skill set. Lamarr Woodley and Mario Haggan are both very good at it, and Adalius Thomas used to be, but like RT on offense, there are a lot more average 3-4 Sams than there are good ones. Roth is a good one, because he sets the edge well, and generates a good pass rush when he's called upon to do so. Finding a guy like him in-season is what a bad team has to do.

c. Two unheralded guys who the Browns have discovered on offense are RB Chris Jennings and TE Evan Moore. Jennings won a Grey Cup recently with the Montreal Alouettes, and looked like the best back on the Browns roster last Thursday. He ran with power and explosion against an excellent run defense.

I meant to mention Moore last week and forgot; but I know a football player when I see one, and he's a player. He was a big WR at Stanford for 4 years, and also played basketball for his first 2 years. His fluidity, body control, and overall athleticism jump off the screen, and really remind me of Antonio Gates. I don't know if he's as fast as Gates, but he looks to me like he could definitely be a Brent Celek-caliber receiving TE. He's been key to Brady Quinn's recent improvement, because Quinn does his best throwing work inside the numbers.

Jennings and Moore are two players who the Browns can be very excited about, as they figure out what their program is during the offseason. Like Roth, they came with no significant cost. Now the Browns just need to nail their offseason.

d. I had a friend who is a Steelers fan ask me what was wrong with his team, and I think I may have disappointed him by not having a real definitive answer ready. It's kind of a tough question to answer, really, because Mike Tomlin had it exactly right when he said it was a function of struggles in all three phases of the game.

The defense really misses Troy Polamalu, who I think might be the most irreplaceable defensive player in the NFL. No safety plays with the speed of Polamalu, and the Steelers are much more conservative in their blitz packages without him. Their CBs are also playing pretty poorly over the last five games. On offense, I think the Steelers play-calling has been suspect. Rashard Mendenhall has emerged as a good RB, and the Steelers seem reluctant to commit to letting him run. I'm not surprised at the rumblings Sunday that some offensive coaches are likely going to get whacked after the season.

e. Now, on to why the Browns won Thursday. There were two reasons. One reason is that Joshua Cribbs is a great football player, and he carried his team on offense and special teams. The other is that the Browns covered the Steelers' receivers at a shockingly high level. ST&NO Favorite Brandon McDonald was fantastic. He might have had the best coverage game I have seen from a CB this year (although Andre' Goodman was awesome on Sunday, too). Eric Wright was strong on the other side too, though he gave up a few completions to Santonio Holmes. As has often been the case with the Broncos this season, the coverage allowed the pressure to get to Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked 8 times.

f. It was another annoying weekend when almost every game was early, including the Broncos. I had the Chicago-Green Bay game on at the same time as the Broncos game,. and as I watched some of it, I was struck by the fact that neither team showed me anything that I didn't already know about them. Aaron Rodgers continued his recent run of getting sacked less, and the Packers defense was strong again. The Bears had some flashes, but self-destructed at key times.

The only real takeaway from this, to me, is another reminder why I don't really like fantasy football. The number one player in the Official MHR League this year has been my QB, Rodgers. In real football terms, he played fine on Sunday. He completed 16 of 24 throws for 180 yards, and lost a fumble on a blind-side sack. His team won the game, so no worries, right? Well, in fantasy terms, he tanked. Not only that, I am playing Zappa in the playoffs this week, and he has Ryan Grant, who had a monster game with 137 yards and 2 TDs, because the Bears were playing coverage to prevent big plays in the passing game.

g. Speaking of guys who tanked on my fantasy team, Randy Moss, this skunky, warm Miller High Life is for you. One catch for 16 yards, and a lost fumble? Really? He really looked like he wasn't trying hard, too; it was a total flashback to the Oakland days. Good thing I had Brandon Marshall and the Eagles (TD scoring) defense.

h. I think the Patriots are in trouble, and that their culture needs an adjustment. I read Bill Belichick's sending tardy players home as a clear indication of that. Adalius Thomas lipped off in the media, and got benched for it, and Randy Moss did it with his play somewhat on Sunday. I wouldn't be shocked if both are gone after this season. Thomas is gone for sure, and Moss is a possibility. The Patriots have a lot of draft assets with which to restock the WR position, and they're pretty solid at LB anyway, with guys like Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich making positive contributions.

It was pretty interesting how Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came to Moss's aid on Monday, after he clearly was dogging some pass routes. Michael Lombardi had a good point on NFL Network that Moss has done that his whole career, and that the Patriots probably weren't too alarmed by it. I think it's pretty bad, personally.

i. Scary moment in Arlington, Texas, when DeMarcus Ware was carted off the field with a neck injury. The Chargers had a false start, and then went right down the field in two plays to score the deciding TD afterward. Reports on Monday were that Ware would miss the next two weeks, which would really handicap the Dallas defense. Most casual fans think of Ware as just a pass rusher, but he is a rare player who stars against the run, and in zone coverage too.

j. I alluded to this thought last week, but it was well-articulated by Michael Lombardi last night; Dallas's struggles have nothing to do with what month it is. The same can be said of the Chargers and their success in the month of December. If you're playing in a lot of places where there's bad weather, then maybe the month is a semi-meaningful data point, but neither Dallas nor San Diego particularly qualifies. I know somebody is going to say that a game in December is a pressure game, but even that's not true a lot of times. San Diego has tended to be healthy in December, and Dallas has tended to be banged up. San Diego has tended to play weak late-season schedules, and Dallas has tended to play difficult ones. Don't get caught up in things which Peter King would incorrectly call a factoid.

k. That Radio Shack commercial with the sleeping scruffy dude saying "Dance, Sugar Plum Fairies" is bizarre. It makes no sense at all to me, and I can't imagine how it would make anybody want to shop at Radio Shack, or buy that craptastic phone from Sprint.

l. NBC lucked out with a great game on Sunday night between the Eagles and Giants. Neither defense looked particularly good, but both offenses lit it up. The difference in the game was a defensive TD from Sheldon Brown, and a punt-return TD from DeSean Jackson. Those plays also provided the difference in the Shallow Thoughts team beating Zappa's Sactown Beavers in the playoffs.

m. I would never let Jackson get off the line of scrimmage without getting hit. Teams just insist on letting this guy run free through their secondary, and he kills them. Little, fast guys like him must be re-routed off the line, and then you want over/under coverage on him after that. He's not the typical big, physical number-1 WR like Brandon Marshall, but he does need double-team attention, or at least Cover-3 behind him, so he can be hit at the line with confidence.

n. Brandon Jacobs, to me, is like a 98-mph fastball that's a little too straight, and rarely misses bats. Jacobs has been running harder lately than he was early in the season, but he doesn't make anybody miss. He takes so many hits, and this year, he's going down more easily than he used to. I think the Giants offense is better when Ahmad Bradshaw is getting more carries than Jacobs at this point, even as Jacobs has been better lately.

o. Speaking of the Giants, I want to share some ST&NO light with a Giants fan, because I've coincidentally been listening to his music as I wrote this part of the column. If you like hip hop, you ought to check out Nickel at his website www.SpotMeANickel.com. He's got a couple albums worth of MP3s available for free download there. I went to high school with the guy at Norwich Free Academy in Norwich, CT, and it's cool to see him doing well, and making good music.

p. As always, I watched 5 games on Monday night, and the one I learned the most from was the New Orleans-Atlanta game. Very simply, New Orleans deserved to lose the game, and I haven't seen or heard anybody acknowledge that. I take that as a reaffirmation that my effort is worth the time.

Brent Grimes got called for two horrible pass-interference penalties, on plays where he reached around his man to play the ball. Those two plays directly led to 14 points being scored, and the Saints won by 3. The officials bogusly penalized ST&NO Favorite Thomas DeCoud on an even better play in the fourth quarter too, but Garrett Hartley subsequently missed a Field Goal, so it didn't affect the scoreboard. The Saints are a very good team, and they don't need any bonus help, but apparently you can't breathe on their receivers. It reminded me of the 2006 NBA Finals, when Dwyane Wade got "fouled" practically every time he touched the ball, and it disgusted me just as much to watch.

q. Jonathan Vilma deserves credit for sealing the win for New Orleans. He intercepted Chris Redman with 3 minutes to go in the game. Then, after the Saints arrogantly tried a fake field goal, rather than taking the points and going up 6, Vilma tackled the formidable Jason Snelling cold in the open field, a yard short of the first down on 4th and 2. He made the plays that were there to be made.

r. While I'm on the topic of the Saints, here's an E! True Hollywood Story for you. Or maybe it's a Letterman-style Top 2 list. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Top 2 Things Ted Bartlett Currently Doesn't Give A Damn About (And Al Roker's Forecast Calls For No Change:)

1. Whether or not the Colts or Saints go 16-0, and on a related note, whether or not they rest their starters.

2. Who wins the NFL MVP Award.

Going 16-0 doesn't matter to anything. All it would do is create something which Peter King would someday mistakenly call a factoid (even though it's actually a fact). The only thing that matters is going 3-0 (or 4-0) in the Playoffs. Plus, the whole thing puts Mercury Morris back in the spotlight, and he's a jerk who doesn't deserve it.

As for the MVP Award, really, who cares? I may start caring if somebody other than a QB or RB can win, other than the rare Lawrence Taylor in 1986. (Since the AP award began in 1957, only DT Alan Page, K Mark Moseley, and Taylor have won the award from positions other than QB or RB. Taylor is the only winner for the Pro Football Writers Association award, which began in 1975. This is an absolute farce.)

Remember ST&NO Rule #1: If reporters vote for it, and decide it, it's usually not particularly worth paying attention to. That includes any and all power rankings, the NFL All-Pro team, all season-ending awards in all sports, and membership in all Halls of Fame. Reporters often mean well, and they add some value to the overall football discourse, but the value they add ends when they're not asking questions, finding things out, and reporting those things. When you ask them to judge something, most can't get past the very obvious, or what other people tell them, and nearly all are biased by what they consider to be the most interesting story. While that's understandable, given the fact that they're in the interesting story business, it's also self-serving, and represents noise rather than a reflection of truth.

s. The more I watch Chad Henne, the more I like his mechanics, all the way through the process of playing QB. I most especially like the way he carries out his fakes after he hands off the ball. You can tell that he's very well coached, both at the collegiate level and the professional level.

t. Speaking of good coaching, if Head Coaching jobs were being handed out based only upon excellence as a coordinator, Mike Mularkey would be looking pretty good for a shot at another job. People who know things about offense, and pay attention, know that Mularkey has been getting a lot of production out of some pretty marginal talent the last two seasons. It's equal parts scheme, knowing the capabilities of his players, and getting his guys to execute, but Atlanta's offense overachieves. Remember - Mularkey didn't get fired in Buffalo; he resigned in 2006 because he didn't see eye-to-eye with the recently hired Marv Levy. He's up there with Houston's Kyle Shanahan on offense, and the Broncos' Mike Nolan, Cincinnati's Mike Zimmer, and Arizona's Bill Davis on defense as guys who I think are adding a great deal of value to their sides of the ball.

u. I tend to dislike University of Texas players, because they have a well-known reputation for being coddled in Austin, and often coming into the NFL as soft players. A limitation of making evaluations from a distance is that you sometimes have to rely on information which may or may not be meaningful, such as the fact that coaches are prohibited from cursing at players at UT. That's pretty absurd in my opinion, like the urban legend about stress cards in basic training.

I didn't take to Brian Orakpo much coming out of college, partially due to the UT factor. Turns out, he's very good, and he's brought a lot to the table for Oakland. He has had a very good rookie season, but he was dominant on Sunday against the Raiders' bad offensive line and indecisive JaMarcus Russell. I still prefer Knowshon Moreno to Orakpo for the long haul, and I still think the Redskins should have taken Michael Oher (after the Packers should have taken Michael Oher). Orakpo was a good choice though, and is a good player, so I missed on that one.

v. I said a couple weeks ago that I was pretty sure that the Chiefs didn't regret acquiring Matt Cassel, and he's proceeded to have the two worst games of his career the last two weeks. His ability is very clear, so I still don't think they regret it, but he needs to step it up, and buy Todd Haley and Scott Pioli some cover. Kansas City has an aggressive local sports media, led by Adam Teicher and Jason Whitlock. Whitlock has already renamed Pioli as Scott Egoli, so it would be mighty helpful to this regime if they and Cassel could finish the season stronger than they've been showing, and feel like there's something to build on.

w. A vital part of a 3-step drop passing play is that the outside blocker on the throw side (usually the Tackle) needs to cut the Defensive End and get him on the ground. The 49ers RT, Adam Snyder, failed to cut Darnell Dockett twice in the first half Monday night, resulting in an Interception by Dockett, and another deflection by Dockett, which Alex Smith caught himself, and promptly was tackled for a 6-yard loss. Neither play was Smith's fault; his job is to get to the top of his drop, and let the ball go. Snyder's job is to clear the throwing lane.

x. Speaking of guys clearly not doing their jobs (and jumping back to the Dallas game because of the topic), Tony Dungy was right on when he was asked if coaching was the problem in Dallas. He said that he knows Terence Newman has been coached to jam a WR and re-route him in Cover-2, and that coaching definitely wasn't the problem on the big Vincent Jackson 39-yard catch on 3rd and 12 (right after the aforementioned Ware injury).

That was the key play of the game, and Newman didn't make it. As the play happened live, I yelled out "Where's the f$%^&* jam, 41?" I was glad Dungy called him out, although I bet he wasn't moved to profanity like I was. I've always thought Newman was highly overrated, by virtue of being a Cowboy. It comes with wearing the blue star, I am afraid.

y. Usually, when a defensive lineman is drafted highly, you expect him to be a big sack guy. The Bengals once drafted Justin Smith fourth overall, in 2001. His career high in sacks, mostly as a Right DE in a 40-front, was 8.5 in his rookie season. He had 6.5, 5, 8, 6, 7.5, and 2 in his next five seasons, which are respectable numbers, but not for an open-side DE drafted that highly.

Smith signed a 6-year $45 million deal with San Francisco in 2008, and moved to 5-technique in a 30-front. It's the role he should have been playing all along, because he's always been a physical, block-defeating player more than a speed-rushing player. It's not too different than the highly drafted Derrick Harvey from the Jaguars, or Jamaal Anderson for the Falcons (who moved to DT eventually). Their skill sets are just better suited to playing with physicality than with speed. (Harvey got only his second sack of the year Sunday, and Anderson has 0.5).

Anyway, Smith was dominant on Monday night, and consistently held the point of attack, while often penetrating and disrupting the Cardinals offense. It sure seemed like he is earning his money. I was also very impressed with the pass-rushing skills of Ahmad Brooks, who used to be just a MLB.

z. Another rookie I criticized for seeming to be soft was Beanie Wells, and he continues to play like he isn't. His TD run early in the 4th quarter Monday night was a man's TD run, all second effort. He did fumble later in the 4th quarter, but it was on a kill-shot by Dashon Goldson, who had a couple of those in Monday night's game.

aa. Genetics are a funny thing. In my family, we have something called the Bartlett Calves. My dad and all his siblings have them, and all my siblings and I have them, even my 8-year old half-sister Abby. The Bartlett Calves are notable for being disproportionately muscular and large, compared to the rest of our bodies. I am 6 feet tall and weigh 235 pounds, and when flexed, my calves are 18 inches around, which is 3-4 inches bigger than the average man's calf, and an inch bigger than the average man's neck.

I bring up this genetic oddity, because it makes me feel a certain kinship with Frank Gore, who has thunder thighs like whoa. He's found out a way to make good professional use of his thighs, because they're what give him such impressive power in traffic. Mine don't really come in too useful as an accounting manager and blogger.

ab. The jury is in as far as I am concerned for San Francisco. The 49ers are on the right track, and ST&NO Favorite Alex Smith has definitely emerged as their long-term QB. They have 2 first-round picks this season, which are both going to be in the 10-15 area. They need a CB and an offensive lineman with those picks, or maybe even two offensive linemen. This team is not far at all from the playoffs, and they're not even going to miss by much this season.

ac. The Cardinals are still legitimate championship contenders, but they got their hind parts kicked Monday night. The result of the game was more a reflection of good play by the Niners than it was of bad play by the Cardinals. The bright spot for Arizona was the excellent Adrian Wilson, who baited Smith into a dumb INT, and was around the ball constantly, the whole game.

4. I couldn't agree more with TJ Johnson's piece about deferring the option yesterday, and a smart analyst got out ahead of me before I wrote about it, which happens once in awhile with a Tuesday slot. I'm always glad to see an in-house MHR guy do it. Big up TJ! If you haven't read his article, you should. So should Don Banks (and Dan Fouts.)

From Banks:

• Did I hear that right, the Broncos won the coin toss to start their game at Indy and deferred to the Colts? And Peyton Manning? Why exactly would you give Manning the chance to get the ball in his hands any more than you absolutely have to? What were you thinking, Josh McDaniels? That's a dubious, rookie-like call for the Broncos new head coach. I do believe McDaniels was guilty of overconfidence in his defense.

My two cents was going to be that each team gets the ball kicked to them to start one half, and there's no way around that fact, so if you consider just this fact, it's utterly meaningless which half a particular team gets their opportunity to receive. TJ goes much further, and finds that there is actually evidence that teams who get the ball to start the second half tend to experience more success. Very interesting stuff.

5. That first-rounder from the Bears is looking really good right now. Chicago fell to 5-8 Sunday, and I like them to finish 6-10. They play at Baltimore and home against Minnesota before finishing at Detroit. For the Broncos' playoff chances, I'd like to see the Bears beat the Ravens, but I doubt it happens. A 6-10 record is probably good for a pick in the neighborhood of 9th or 10th overall. I gave a cursory look at the remaining schedules of every team with a losing record, and this is what I came up with for season-ending records, and way-too-early possible picks.

1. St. Louis 1-15 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma

2. Tampa Bay 1-15 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska

3. Detroit 2-14 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma

4. Kansas City 3-13 Eric Berry S Tennessee

5. Cleveland 4-12 Russell Okung T Oklahoma State

6. Oakland 4-12 Carlos Dunlap DE Florida

7. Buffalo 5-11 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame

8. Washington 5-11 Trent Williams T Oklahoma

9. San Francisco ~~Carolina~~ 5-11 Joe Haden CB Florida

10. Seattle 6-10 Anthony Davis T Rutgers

11. Denver ~~Chicago~~ 6-10

12. San Francisco 7-9

13. Pittsburgh 7-9

14. Houston 8-8

15. Tennessee 8-8

With a 10th or 11th pick, you can get yourself a difference-making defensive player like a Terrence Cody, Rolando McClain, or Brandon Spikes. You could also go outside the box, and draft a guy like C.J. Spiller from Clemson, who projects as a major home-run threat, a la Chris Johnson, at the NFL level. You have to admit, he'd make a nice tandem with Knowshon Moreno. My move, though, might be to try to trade down, and enjoy some of the depth of this Draft. (I say try, because you can't always do it.) I am treading kind of lightly with this line of thinking, because I am a well-known believer that players are better than draft picks. (A player is a real asset, and a draft pick is a derivative asset; when you're needing to operate now, it's better to have a barrel of oil than a contract guaranteeing the delivery of a barrel of oil at a future date and price.)

To me, the Broncos could get back once or twice to #20 or so, and take someone like either Mike or Maurkice Pouncey from Florida, if they elect to enter the draft. (Incidentally, I think Florida is going to lose a bunch of underclassmen.) Both are 6-5 320-pound interior offensive linemen, and would fill what I think is the Broncos' biggest roster need. The overall point, though, is that it's good to be in the position the Broncos are in right now, with this pick coming in higher than their record would earn. For those who were sure the Broncos erred in trading their own pick rather than Chicago's, I'd hope they remember that you don't know how things are going to play out until they play out.

6. Bad news emerged for QB-needy teams yesterday that Washington junior Jake Locker will return for his senior season. It was not altogether unexpected, but I believe that Locker would have been the first QB selected, and maybe the number-1 overall pick. His talent as a thrower and runner is way ahead of the other guys in this class. The guy who benefits is Sam Bradford, because if he checks out healthy, his size and arm are both a bit better than Jimmy Clausen's. I, personally, am not in love with either guy. Bradford looks like a young Matt Hasselbeck to me, while a comparison for Clausen doesn't come to me so easily. Clausen is short, average athletically, looks like he needs to get a lot stronger, and has an average arm. He looks a bit like a young Drew Brees, before Drew worked so hard to become what he became. I am reluctant to make that comparison, but it's the best one I can come up with.

7. Retired for John Elway.

That's all I have for this week. We'll be back next Tuesday with more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Until then, have a fantastic Raiders Week, and Go Broncos!

Potent Quotables - Colts 28 - Broncos 16

John Bena — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 03:47:44 -0000

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HC JOSH MCDANIELS

(opening comments)
"Start out with giving credit to the Colts. They certainly set the bar here in the AFC. We found out why when you play sixty minutes and make the mistakes we made today it is going to be difficult to beat a winning, top-caliber football team that plays well under pressure. That team is extremely well coaches, Coach Caldwell and his staff do a great job and I want to give them credit today- they forced us in to making a lot of mistakes in situations that ultimately determined the outcome of the game."

(on whether it was the game plan to throw to WR Brandon Marshall so much)
"It is part of it but not necessarily the game plan to throw it to him that many times. We knew we'd have our chances to get the ball outside to the receivers. It just so happened to be Brandon a lot more than usual."

(on costly mistakes)
"You can't set yourself back the way we did today. We had a few third and short opportunities there and end up with third and six- whether it is a delay or false start. There was also that big penalty in the two minute offense right before the half that put us with the ball instead of on the fifty on the thirty-five. You can't give them yards and opportunities because they take advantage of them. We knew that coming in that they are the best team in football at taking advantage of your mistakes and they did that."

(on the Colts Defense getting multiple short yardage stops)
"They got penetration. That is something that if you are going to create a hole or a running lane there-you go off tackle- you're going to have to stop the penetration. They did a great job today of getting in the backfield on a couple of those third and one's. They did that a few other times too. Those big plays on those third and one's was all because of penetration."

(on the WR Brandon Marshall's twenty-one catches)
"He played hard. I think everybody on our team played hard today. Brandon had a lot of productivity. That's great but I'm sure he would trade a bunch of that productivity for a victory today. Again, individual things are great but we are looking for team accomplishments."

QB-KYLE ORTON

(on being down 14-0 early)
"Certainly not the start we wanted to get off to, we thought going in we'd be right with them all the way to the fourth quarter and we end up doing that. We'd talked all week about finishing every play and finishing every opportunity. Certainly, we didn't do that and kind of ended up like five or six other teams in the same situation-losing late in the fourth quarter to a great team."

(on the possibility of meeting the colts again in the play-offs)
"Well, we know where we need to go. They are clearly the class of the AFC and I'd love to see them again. Right now, we are just focused on getting to that point. Where we can finish those plays, finish those drives, finish those games, and compete."

(on the Red Zone being the strength of the Colts Defense)
"That is where their speed shows up, their defensive ends get so much. That's when you've still got a timing issue because the defensive ends are coming at you and creating a lot of pressure and they've got that much less of a space to defend. It's a very good defense in the red zone- we knew we were going to have to be on top of our game and didn't capitalize."

(on WR Brandon Marshall's twenty-one catches)
"In his case, it means a lot. He got into a rhythm and we got into a rhythm together. We were going after them and he kept making plays so I kept feeding it to him."

WR-BRANDON MARSHALL

(on the game being bitter sweet)
"I believe it is one of those games where whenever you accomplish something like that it definitely feels good but at the end of the day we have one goal. Our ultimate goal is to win games. I would definitely trade in a couple of those catches for a win anytime. So, yes it is bitter sweet."

(on the possibility of meeting the Colts again in the play-offs)
"I don't know about beating them, but we definitely saw today if we play our best and eliminate the mistakes we have a shot to play with the best of them. We can walk away with our heads held high today."

(on being down 14-0 early)
"It is scary! It is scary when you have Peyton Manning over there leading the offense and you're down. It is a scary feeling but with the character, the leaders we have on this team, the character we have in the locker room, we can't do anything but keep going."

(on giving a ball to a fan)
"Before the game I just felt her spirit and her vibe. She had my jersey on and that's always a good feeling being on the road and seeing your jersey in the stands. My fans have been behind me through everything I've been through and seen me grow. For them to still support me means a lot to me."

WR-BRANDON STOKLEY

(on Brandon Marshall's play)
"Those days just happen. You don't plan for them. They just happen. He made some great catches for us and he really kept us in the game."

(on making mistakes against the Colts)
"You can't do it if you want to win. You can't make those mistakes against a good team like this and expect to win the game. Every time we made a mistake, they made us pay for it. Also, we can't settle for field goals. You got to score touchdowns. A couple of times we had to settle for field goals and it always comes back to bite you."

RB KNOWSHON MORENO

(on lost opportunities)
"There were definitely a lot of opportunities out there, but we played a really good team. Unfortunately, we didn't come out with a win."

(on frustration of defense giving the offense extra chances)
"It's definitely frustrating, but you've got to give it to them. They flew around today and made some big plays on defense, and we didn't capitalize on our opportunities. Our defense played really well for us to keep us in the game so now we've got to get back to work."

DL KENNY PETERSON

(on making the Colts offense look ordinary in the 2nd and 3rd quarters)
"We just calmed down and played our game and everyone was playing together. We got them off their spot a little bit and pressured him (Peyton Manning) and shut them down a little bit."

(on giving the Denver offense a chance with the three turnovers)
"It's a team game. Games that they don't play as well we pick them up and they do vice-versa. It's a tough one. At the end of the day we got a loss."

(on having the chance to win and not capitalizing)
"It's the Colts. Now we know how to play in this league. They are a barometer of a good team in this league. Now we know where we got to go. We know where we got to go and what we got to do."

OLB/DE MARIO HAGGAN

(on what they did different defensively in the 2nd and 3rd quarters)
"We just had to calm down and play our type of game. We were just making small mistakes. Once we got that going and started playing our style of defense we made some things happen. We just came up a few plays short."

(on making Peyton Manning look ordinary for a part of the game)
"I wouldn't say ordinary. He's an elite quarterback. We made him do some things that are out of his character. We feel like we have a great defense. We feel like we can play with anybody. He just came up as elite quarterbacks do and made the plays when they count."

(on the 4th quarter drive that put the game away)
"Definitely. The Colts, they trust him (Peyton Manning) and thats why he's Peyton Manning. First ballot guy in my opinion. Once again we just have to keep fighting and have to give our hats off to them. They played well. They did the things to win. We just have to go back, look at the film, see what we did wrong and get ready for Oakland."

OLB/DE DARRELL REID

(on getting a piece of the ball on an interception)
"I don't know much else I did today."

(on the difference defensively after the Colts jumped out to the early lead)
"We tightened down. I think coach (Mike) Nolan did a great job of mixing up the calls and getting guys opportunities. I think they tightened down on the back end. We tried to get to the spot, get a little pressure on Peyton (Manning). I know Robert Ayers had a hit on him early. A couple tipped balls caused a couple interceptions. It's tough. You get a couple stops and they come right back and he is right back at it hitting (Reggie) Wayne and (Dallas) Clark."

(on there being a moral victory since the Broncos hung with the Colts who are undefeated)
"At 21-0 the game could have gotten ugly at that point. So, you walk away with a little pride that we hung in there even though we were down early and didn't give up and kept fighting. You can't make the mistakes we made today and beat that team. They set the bar in this league. They are the best team in this league. They proved that again today."

CB TY LAW

(on disappointment with the loss)
"It was very disappointing because I think when you into the game with high expectations. We felt very confident coming in that if we do what we were supposed to do that we could win the ballgame. But, you know, you got to give those guys credit. What else can you say? They are the standard for the NFL along with New Orleans. We played with them, but we just didn't play long enough to win."

(on his team's slow start on defense)
"It's just about us getting into the rhythm defensively. It's always those first couple of series. You're getting warmed up and things like that. But they were just on it better than we were and we gave them too much cushion."

Week Fourteen Preview: Broncos at Colts

BigBlueShoe — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 16:09:13 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Indianapolis Colts coach Jim Caldwell. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

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The Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts have significant history between one another. Whether it is nail-biting, smash-mouth-style games played in snowstorms, or playoff blowouts featuring Peyton Manning throwing about a gazillion touchdown passes to then-Colts wide receiver Brandon Stokley, some of the most memorable games for these modern Colts have been against the Broncos.

This Sunday, they renew their rivalry with some new faces.

Gone are head coaches Tony Dungy for the Colts and Mike Shanahan for the Broncos. Replacing Shanahan is the brash and cocky Bill Belichick protege in Josh McDaniels. The new head coach in Indy is the soft-spoken, even-keeled Dungy disciple that is Jim Caldwell. Both have different approaches to the game. Both have gotten a lot out of their football teams of late. And while some players are new to this party, like Brian Dawkins and rookie Knowshon Moreno, other players are very familiar with this rivalry, but are now "playing for the enemy"; namely the before mentioned Brandon Stokely and defensive tackle Darrell Reid. Both play for Denver now.

For the Colts, the lone "defector" in the rivalry is former-Broncos defensive coordinator Larry Coyer. He is now coordinating the Colts defense, and doing a great job.

With the Broncos regaining their form after dropping four straight, this game figures to be like any other match-up the Colts had had to deal with this year: Hard and physical.

The Broncos are a bit of an enigma in that you aren't quite sure what you are going to get when you play them, and that is necessarily by design. During their 6-0 start, they seemed to have a lot of breaks go their way, with the incredibly lucky Brandon Stokley tip-catch-TD at the beginning of the year to beat the Bengals as the best example of said breaks. When they lost four in a row, they seemed to get exposed a bit. Their only meaningful road win was a 43-23 victory over the Chargers, but that win was later avenged by the Chargers utterly dominating the Broncos 32-3. They righted their ship, somewhat, by beating a banged-up Giants team and then later feasting on the small children that litter their division (namely, the Kansas City Chiefs).

In terms of standard stats, the Broncos defense is tied with the Colts, giving up exactly 16.8 points per game. The Broncos have 34 sacks, are about even with the Colts in terms of run defense, and sport a dangerous return threat in Eddie Royal.

The big reason the Broncos are 8-4 is their defense. Though Josh McDaniels has done a good job with a Denver team many felt would only win 3 games this year, the fact is McDaniels has nothing to do with the Broncos defense. He doesn't coach it, scheme it, or call plays for it on gameday. Mike Nolan, the current Broncos defensive coordinator and former head coach of the 49ers, runs Denver's D.

The standard stats for the defense are impressive, but when you factor in shake n bake's ever lovable, huggable DVOA stats, the Denver defense is top notch. They are ranked #4 in DVOA.

Meanwhile, the Broncos offense is ranked 21st in the league using standard scoring stats (20 points per game) and 19th in DVOA. The also rank in the bottom half of the league on third down completion percentage.

OK, those were the stats. now, we move to the keys:

A key match-up in the game is between Denver's outstanding left tackle, Ryan Clady, going up against all-world defensive end Dwight Freeney. Clady is as good as they come. But, then again, so were potential future Hall of Famers like Jonathan Ogden and Walter Jones. Freeney routinely ate those guys for lunch, and unless Denver plans to give Clady help he could be another "skull on the pile" for Freeney. Gil Brandt of NFL.com has a write-up on this match-up.
Pressure on Denver Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton is very key. Last year, Orton (who played his college ball at Purdue following Drew Brees leaving for the NFL and just prior to Curtis Painter's tenure) walked into the grand opening of Lucas Oil Stadium and lit the place up. He was able to do this because his pocket was clean and he was rarely, if ever, pressured. That, and he had Matt Forte galloping all over the field for him. The Colts cannot allow Orton to gain any kind of comfort zone. They must get into his face, and pressure him into mistakes.
The other key match-up for the game is Peyton Manning v. Brian Dawkins and the Broncos secondary. The DBs in Denver are rather geriatric by NFL standards. Dawkins has been in the league 14 years. Starting corner Champ Bailey has played for 11 years while nickel corner (and longtime Colts nemesis) Ty Law, who signed with the Broncos a few weeks ago after a long absence from the NFL, has played 15 years. Denver will likely look to mix coverages, allowing their corners to play one-on-one with safety help against Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. This is the tactic the Patriots used a few weeks ago. This means players like Pierre Garçon and Austin Collie must continue to step it up. Denver coach Josh McDaniels acknowledged the development and growth of Garçon and Collie is a recent press conference they have as part of Colts.com's weekly Colts Up-Close, Online Edition.

As always, the Colts must take the field this Sunday against a hungry, playoff situated team that is looking to solidify their post-season chances. Just like most other "experts," I too am very surprised by Denver's current 8-4 record. But, you have to give them credit. I personally think much of the credit should go to Mike Nolan, but McDaniels deserves some props for hiring Nolan and for making some strong personnel moves this off-season along with new Broncos GM Brian Xanders.

Obviously, there are elements of McDaniels personality and coaching style that leave one feeling that he is a little bit of a punk. Though we've been bashing him for a few weeks now, Yahoo! Sports "expert" Michael Silver did write an interesting article this week detailing how "ugly" McDaniels has acted and carried himself this season. However, despite the slime trail McDaniels seems to leave behind him, you cannot discount that he has done a better job with the 2009 Denver Broncos than Mike Shanahan did with the 2008 Denver Broncos.

I recently said in this Mile High Report FanPost that Nolan was able to take a defense with, roughly, the same players that Mike Shanahan had and transform them into a top flight D.

Turns out, I was wrong.

According to Broncos fans (and it's reasonable to trust them on this), only Elvis Dumervil, Champ Bailey, and D.J. Williams are holdovers starting from last year's defense. Everyone else appears new, and they are buying in to the Broncos "Pats West-style" 3-4 defense.

Many thanks to Broncos fans at MHR for an excellent series of FanPosts, allowing communities from both blogs to interact. In the three FanPosts created (two on MHR, one here) we had close to 700 comments from Broncos and Colts fans alike with much of the discussion focused solely on football and the game itself.

In fact, our FanPost had less trash talk than the Tweets between Raheem Brock and Darrell Reid.

These Q&As between writers and readers might one of the best weeks we've had with another blog all season. Special thanks to ANGELSFAITH and John Bena.

This should be a hard fought game between two teams who might meet again in the post-season. We shall see.

Broncos Thoughts and Musings - Indy Week

Emmett Smith — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:38:06 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

9 days ago: Denver Broncos tight end Daniel Graham catches a short pass before running for a touchdown during the first quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009 in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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There's nothing quite like back-to-back wins to put a shine into the work in the film room. The glow of the past two wins hasn't faded at all, but the upcoming contest against the Indianapolis Colts is starting to loom large. Before we get into our matchups and needs against the next foe, let's take some time to look back over what we've accomplished. Special teams, the nose tackle position and even raiderology are on today's menu. Let the feasting begin!

The Film Room I - KC Autopsy

A moment of silence for a team that has passed away, out of contention for the season and fighting for respect. It's a tough time to be a Chiefs fans, and I want to thank them for a week of intelligent football talk and good-spirited fun. Nice guys, over at Arrowhead Pride. But the nice guy's team, in this case, is finishing near last (if they don't awaken right now. You couldn't miss that on the tape.

I had mentioned that the game this past weekend, like most games, would come down to how Denver played in the trenches. The Broncos responded with a solid performance by the O-Line, prying open gaping holes more than large enough to pass a running back through. When Ryan Harris stepped out in the early second quarter and Tyler Polumbus replaced him, I wondered for a brief moment if we were seeing a very bad thing but there was no dropoff that I saw. Polumbus seems to have stepped up his game, as has Russ Hochstein. Both improvements are timely - and much needed.

Mistakes - Orton had an uncharacteristically bad red-zone play on the first drive, but he moved them well on the next drive. He was blindsided twice and lost the ball, but let's be real - if the defensive player hits the arm right, every QB loses those. Over his career Orton hasn't tended to that issue, so I'm not worried. I want to see those blindside hits stop, though. Orton was 'burping the baby again, an old and bad habit, but the O-Line doesn't get off scot-free, either. They bear some responsibility for the sacks and the one fumble. They really stepped up when they had to though, and that was the name of the game. They let KC get to the one and held them to a FG. INTs, negative plays, pressure and domination go a long way. They took us to an eighth win.

I've wondered about the progress of Richard Quinn of late mostly because I hadn't had the time to break down the ST work as well as I should. That's being fixed, and the guys on Upon Further Review have been kind enough to help me out. As I result, I've been seeing a lot of good things with Quinn and I'm pleased that he singlehandedly made a huge play on the faked punt. KC must have assumed that since others have caught the Broncos with those kind of plays, it would work again. Here's what Josh McDaniels had to say,

They went to a gadget-type formation and I know that there was a guy leaking out the other way and they had an opportunity to get that ball out there but TE Richard (Quinn) made a heck of a play. I don't know what happens if the ball gets thrown but it probably wouldn't have been too good for us. Whenever you break the formation and have a gadget-type play, we were prepared and we split out with them but you are never sure who they are trying to pick for or who they are trying to spring free. That was a big play in the game because we obviously took possession of the football in their territory.

It wasn't the only big play, either. The Broncos were unstoppable in the running game and despite some errors, still used the pass to score 2 TDs, which would have been enough by itself. The game was over when Cassel's QB rating hit 3.1. There isn't a mercy rule. Perhaps there should be. This was a good reminder of that fact.

The Broncos won despite some sloppy play that won't work in the upcoming weeks. In the final analysis, the Broncos committed too many errors and they can't win against the best if they do. But still, you get a sense of how the team can play, and there is a heck of a team in here. You have to balance the bad with the fact that we're seeing a lot of things getting fixed in the new systems the team has learned. When I go back to what I wanted to see from the team this year, that was at the top of the list. Nice work, guys.

Film Room II - The Special Teams

The emphasis on this week's review was the play of the Broncos' special teams this season. Everyone is in agreement that the STs can play better than they did in the first 10-12 weeks of the season. While there are now some obvious bright spots (David Bruton, Spencer Larsen, Darrell Reid, Darcel McBath), I felt that a major review might be in order. It was a great week to feel that way - wow, what a performance on special teams the Broncos put in place. Huge kudos to MHR favorite Spencer Larsen, who notched a huge 4 special teams tackles and to Darrell Reid, who trailed him with 3. Great job on ST! Eddie Royal looked comfortable and Mitch Berger was a monster - again. I don't know how he avoided the block on that one punt, but I was impressed. Berger has no history of frequently blocked punts; so despite his slower motion, he hasn't let it hurt the team.

How was our kicking game against KC? Take a look:

Extra Points Made-Attempts 5-5
Field Goals Made-Attempts 3-3
Red Zone Efficiency 4-6-67%
Goal-to-go efficiency 2-2-100%

That's the kind of efficient red-zone and ST play that wins games.

Some things are obvious. Royal hasn't had enough room to run on punt returns, mostly due to our tendency to let the offenses get into the 40/40 yard-line range, which lets the teams either punt into the coffin corner or just create a touchback, nullifying Eddie's chances of getting in a good runback. They got over that pattern during the past two games and had two wins. Are they connected? You decide. I'm going to vote yes.

Two names that I wanted to look more closely at this week were Richard Quinn and Russ Hochstein. I recalled Hochstein making a couple of serious errors on ST while we were losing and while I'd heard good things about Quinn's ST work, I hadn't caught him on film enough to develop an opinion one way or the other. that obviously changed in KC - his play on the fake punt was perfect and his blocking on kick returns was excellent as well. Nice to see!

The balance of veterans like Mario Haggan, Champ Bailey, Darrell Reid and Andre' Goodman with younger players such as Bruton, Larsen and McBath seems to have found an area of comfort. Lanes are being filled, discipline has improved, tackling is much better and, just as importantly, we haven't been pinning Royal back in coffin country. This is the first time I've seen us playing the way we need to on special teams in a long time. I can only hope it continues.

Safety in Numbers: It's also obvious that David Bruton was a heck of a 4th-round pickup and that Darcel McBath was a great investment. Over the next 5 years, with those two and Josh Barrett, we're in good shape at safety. There was pre-draft talk of moving McBath to CB if certain teams drafted him - McBath can cover very well and can tackle, too. Denver will keep him at safety, though, and for good reason. He won't replace Renaldo Hill anytime soon, but I love that our chances are that good at when we're covering folks.

The response to the recent rise in short-passing offenses (much like our own) has been a switch to fast, coverage safeties. I believe that McBath can be smoothly moved into the slot currently well-occupied by Renaldo Hill when Hill finally slows. Keep in mind that Hill, too, was a CB/S tweener who played CB during his first 4 years in the NFL. McBath seems to be very much in the same mold - he's also bright, like Hill, and was a team leader in college.

We can also go with two smart, effective covering safeties, and although I will miss Dawk's aggression and leadership when the time comes, Hill is an excellent leader and as mentioned, McBath was also a captain in his own right. I believe that David Bruton has the power to later fill many of B-Dawk's roles, although few will ever do so as well. Bruton was also a defensive captain, a pattern in McDaniels' pickups. Finally, Barrett's ability to cover the best TEs one-on-one and to interchange with Wesley Woodyard when needed is a nickel option that few teams can match. Although everyone, myself included, would love to see an Eric Berry on our team, we can establish safety as a lower-cost, high-return group at any point. The fact that all three have done good things on ST makes me even happier - that's a seventh of the game that we need to win, week in and week out. We're finally starting to win at it with a good mix of veterans and younger players. No surprise, then, that we're back to winning.

By the way, we've scored exactly 70 points in the past two games. Things have changed, and for the better. We still need to improve on our mistakes, but I like the direction things are going in.

raiderology

If I'm Al Davis, which is unlikely in the extreme, I'm having a contract meeting with Bruce Gradkowski's agent tomorrow. Gradkowski is on a one-year (2009) contract for $535,000, and in 2010 becomes a restricted free agent. That is one tough, talented guy and the raiders should get a clue: He's a good option right now and a good backup in the future. When's the last time they had a guy come on and win them games? It's ironic that he's the polar opposite of JaMarcus Russell - smaller and lighter, only 6'1" and 220 lbs, but he's smart, tenacious and can play this game. You don't need to waste a pick in the 1st round - you've got your QB in-house for this year and even next year if you want to make the effort to rebuild the team. The young man earned it. Consider his game against PITT:

Att/Comp Yds YPA TD INT QB Rating
20/33 308 9.3 3 0 121.8

Those are numbers that work for me. He has accuracy issues, no question, and his arm strength isn't what the team would like. I don't think that he's a long-term answer - he's just a heck of a lot better answer than Russell and they can keep him on as a backup when they find someone better. The Raiders love the vertical game too much to have a starting QB that doesn't have the arm for the long ball, but they still need one that has some common sense and drive. Mark Twain mentioned that the problem with common sense is that it ain't. That's been Problem 1 in raiderville for a long time and Russell is a perfect example of why. Right now, Gradkowski is a step up.

The raiders have some good running backs in Justin Fargas and Michael Bush. Darren McFadden fumbles too much, has always had issues with his upright style and injuries; he may mature well, but hasn't shown that consistently yet - so I don't count him. They have a fine young TE in Zach Miller, too. Their receiving corp will be mediocre or worse until they catch onto the fact that running fast is of no use if you can't catch the danged ball. They need a couple of possession receivers badly, preferably veterans who don't need to be bottle-fed. They also need to patch a couple of holes in the O-Line, as in much of it. If they can put together a couple of drafts that actually match their team needs, fine, then they can drop big dollars on a QB. Until then? Gradkowski is fine.

This is one example of how a person's feelings on the theory of team building color their approach to decision-making. I personally believe that you need an offensive line more than any other single factor in football. To me, there's no point in arguing about how to win a Super Bowl until you at least have a team that can contend for their division and I think that you start that with the O-Line and move on from there. The raiders seem to do everything backwards, so this is no shock, but they can buy a few wins for relatively few bucks with Gradkowski and they need to develop a longterm plan for a change.

Speaking of the dead, I found it interesting last week when Nnamdi Asomugha went on record as being against the moribund system that Al Davis has in place of not making defensive adjustments for other teams' systems. Davis stills lives and refuses to die on the theory that you play your own system come drought or flood and you ignore what other teams are doing. We all know how that's been working for Oakland. Since this is a team that we play again soon, I'm content to watch them ignore reality with aplomb, but it's interesting when your best player calls out your system in the media. In other cases, I think that kind of thing smacks of ego, but in this case, it smacks of a legitimate cry for help. One that will be ignored, though, like all the rest.

Concussions (briefly) Continued

The NFL is considering a rule change that involves the running back position. The idea behind it is to prevent the RB from using his head as a battering ram, a style of running that has become increasingly common. Running backs like this maneuver because it permits them to deliver a blow rather than just take them.

I'm torn on this. I'm greatly encouraged by the new guidelines for dealing with concussions, and I support rule changes that will reduce the number of head injuries and simply 'blows to the head', which we now understand to be equally bad or even worse, over the course of time. I recognize the the running backs have a legitimate point regarding this approach - they take so much punishment that it seems harsh to take away one of their few options in return.

However -- running in that fashion is going to increase the number of blows to the head that the athlete experiences. It's really that simple. Research has shown a link between frequent blows to the head, even if they do not induce a concussion per se, and increased brain damage. That's a huge problem - the cumulative effects of those blows are increasing the number of retired players who are experiencing loss of their cognitive faculties. What number of yards makes up for that?

From my admittedly-biased position as a retired doc, I'm in favor of this rule change. Using your head to hit people isn't, well, using your head. I'd like to see alternative techniques taught and coached. I'd like to see an end to the kind of problems that hits like Adrian Peterson's created when he used his head to smash into Detroit safety Louis Delmas. By bending down to where his head was only a foot or so from the ground, Peterson smashed his helmet into Delmas' helmet as Delmas came in to tackle him. It was deliberate, and damaging to both men, if more so to Delmas; the hit left Delmas on the ground. I also would like to see it prohibited to use the head to deliver any kind of hit by any player and would support considering a change in the way that tackling is taught. These changes will not greatly change the way the game is played - just how the players are taught.

I understand that many fans will think that if you change the way the game is taught, it's "not really football" anymore. I'm sympathetic, but let's be real here - no amount of money is worth becoming a walking vegetable in your later years. Demanding that players be willing to trade their own abilities in consciousness for the experience of the NFL is, frankly, barbaric. Yes, it's a tough sport. Yes, it's impossible to prevent all injuries and you shouldn't try. However - dropping some of the gladiatorial fervor in the name of living a normal life beyond football isn't an unreasonable approach. We shouldn't ask anyone to be willing to increase their chances of living with brain trauma just for the chance to be a professional football player -- or for any other sport's sake. I hope that we, as a culture, are willing to move beyond that kind of lower-consciousness belief.

QBs and Ratings

While we're considering the media, consider this from Kerry Byrne at si.com:

16.13 yards per attempt -- This is the number that truly leaps off the stat sheet to those who understand the Cold, Hard Football Facts.

Passing yards per attempt is probably the single greatest individual statistical indicator of success in football, and maybe in all of sports. Teams that win the passing yards per attempt battle win nearly 75 percent of the time and the great quarterbacks almost always have high averages per attempt, from Bart Starr and Johnny Unitas to the greatest winner of all, Otto Graham, whose career average of 8.63 YPA is the best in history. to

So, when you see a number like 16.1 YPA, it pays to investigate a little further. Turns out Brees is just the fifth player since 1960 to average more than 16 yards per pass attempt in a game (min. 20 attempts).

It brings up an interesting point: Many teams - most, in fact - have moved to a NE-style offense with an emphasis on the short pass. That doesn't exclude throwing deep, but it does mean that teams will see more of the short passing game, which will tend to skew that number in the statistics. Since many of the offenses that emphasize the short pass use it much as teams used to use the ground game -- picking up 2-8 years at a time, keeping the clock moving and controlling the ball -- you will see the numbers on yards per attempt lessening. It's still true, however, that yards per attempt can be increased by yards after the catch, and that's an area where the Saints have excelled.

The Broncos are starting to throw deeper passes more often, and experience and comfort level between Brandon Marshall and Kyle Orton is a big factor there. It paid off again, and was that Brandon throwing his TD ball to McDaniels? Nice...so much for Brandon leaving. He likes to talk, but they will open the checkbook to keep him (and Doom).

How many more longer passes? It isn't a vertical game onslaught, but this is from the list of the Broncos top-10 long plays each week:

49 4 3-6-DEN 24 (14:08) K.Orton pass short left to B.Marshall pushed ob at KC 27 for 49 yards (J.McGraw).
19 4 1-10-KC 41 (11:26) K.Orton pass deep left to T.Scheffler to KC 22 for 19 yards (C.Mays).
18 1 1-10-DEN 33 (14:55) K.Orton pass short left to E.Royal to KC 49 for 18 yards (B.Flowers).
17 2 2-6-50 (10:18) C.Buckhalter left tackle to KC 33 for 17 yards (M.Vrabel).

Orton added three plays for 14 yards, two to Marshall, one to Royal. The mid-range game is starting to work better and the running game was money all day long. Then there's the kind of rushing dominance that I hadn't seen in too long. The combination gives us a puncher's chance against anyone, if we can control the line of scrimmage.

Final Note: NTs come Full Circle

Pat Kirwan of NFL.com posted this last week:

3-4 nose tackles are scarce

Any team that plays a 3-4 defense knows that success starts up front with a massive nose tackle that plays over the center's head and forces double teams. In the NFL, 3-4 nose tackles are an endangered species. The Chargers lost Jamal Williams and somehow keep winning. The Jets have dropped three of four games since Kris Jenkins went down. Jason Ferguson of the Dolphins just found he is heading to IR, which leaves Paul Soliai to replace him. All three teams have playoff aspirations, but the lack of a quality nose tackle hurts their chances. So far, the Chargers have adjusted best.

He brings up an interesting point. Increasingly, we are seeing smaller NTs coming in and being effective through leverage and athletic ability -- as well as getting penetration. While it is essential that the NT be able to take up 2 or more blockers, it's not really important that he weight 365 lbs. when doing so. The ability to move other people, great technique and an explosive first step are even more important than size.

Since we are now at 12 teams using the 3-4 in some form full-time and many others that use some hybrid variation at least part of the time, we're not going to necessarily see every team moving to the traditional kind of huge player at NT. Players with skill, stamina and unusual strength and/or leverage as well as a scale-tipping 340 lbs will probably continue to be relatively rare. But as Marcus Thomas (314) has shown in Denver when playing behind Ron Fields (314), as the combination of Travis Johnson (311) and Ogemdi Nwagbuo (303) have shown in San Diego since their massive NT, Jamal Williams (348), went on IR and as Jay Ratliff (304) has shown in Dallas, there is more to the NT position than sheer size. Jason Ferguson comes in at 305, no larger than many 40-front defensive tackles. There's a pattern here.

One of the advantages that Denver has shown this season is that Ron Fields is obviously as good as the commentators who called him a steal believed. Even better, Marcus has shown considerable ability in coming in and handling the NT duties when Fields sits down. Thomas is a serious penetrator who obviously plays by relishing of the chance to compete at this level. If Chris Baker (329) develops this off-season, we may get to see Baker or Thomas showing us their skills at DE - personally, I'd love to see Marcus handling that position, but right now he's the second-best option at NT and a very close second at that. He is also said to really enjoy the position, so perhaps he stays there. An eventual flexible rotation that uses Fields, Thomas and Baker at NT, with Baker or Thomas rotating at DE at times isn't beyond possibility, either. That would be flexible and versatile, hallmarks of the amoeba approach.

Regardless of which one slides over (or whether they do - I'm suggesting an option, not predicting that we'll use it), the fact that we have some solid options in the pipeline at DL speaks well to the way the team will play next season. It also frees up a position in the draft, which always is a comfort. What I'm seeing is that we don't need a NT, thanks to good player evaluation last offseason.

Taming the Colts?

How will we handle Indy? Tough question, since they look like the cream of the league to me right now. If we do, we will do it much as we did against KC, even though Indy is so much better. We need for the running game to keep Peyton Manning off the field. It's the only real way to limit him - he's just too good. We need our coverage to be what it's been the past two weeks - or even better. I don't know if even Champ and Goodman can shut down Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and friends, but for us to have a good chance, they will have to. It will be up to Ryan Clady and the offensive line to handle Dwight Feeney. Giving Orton time to throw and the right holes to our newly-empowered running game gives us the best chance. We will be mixing the zone blocking and gap blocking again - over the past two games, that has really begun to gel, right on time for a run at the wild-card slot.

We can't keep committing unforced errors. I suspect that our game will hinge on that -- too many players have contributed cognitive flatulence by taking stupid penalties this season. If we beat ourselves, we're toast. We need to show that we can play like a playoff team and make them beat us. Indy is a predator - always ready to pounce on the weaknesses a team manifests. We're moving two time zones and Indy is murder at home.

It's our toughest game of the year. I look forward to seeing where we measure up.

Go Broncos!

Horse Tracks - 12/9/09 - Broncos Lose Harris For the Season

John Bena — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:04:49 -0000

Yes, the loss of Ryan Harris is unfortunate, but certainly not unexpected. Perhaps the most important asset an offensive tackle has are his feet and footwork. That is what makes Ryan Clady so effective. An injury, such as a dislocated big-toe, can be a huge problem. Credit to Harris for trying to gut it out. Now the burden falls to Tyler Polumbus. He's played the majority of games the past 5 weeks and has improved as time has gone on. The time is now for Polumbus, who grew up in Denver and went to Colorado, to lay-claim to a future spot on the Broncos offensive line.

DB.com - Warriors of a Winter Food Drive(Zach Eisendrath and Chris Gentisalvo)
That tradition received a reward on Tuesday morning when Darrell Reid, Wesley Woodyard, Broncos cheerleaders Romi Bean and Jessica Flores and Broncos mascot Miles attended the students' lunch hour to congratulate them for their efforts.

DB.com - Holidays Come Early(Gary Caldwell)
There were plenty of smiles and full carts as the holidays came a little early Monday night.

DP - Broncos OT Harris out for season
The Broncos will play the rest of the season, including any playoff games, without starting right tackle Ryan Harris.

DP - How about Broncos' McDaniels for NFL coach of the year?(Mark Kiszla)
For everybody who cursed this young football coach for trading Jay Cutler, condemned his draft picks as madness or demanded he be fired before his first game on the Broncos' sideline, it's time to consider calling Josh McDaniels a new name:

DP - Broncos use Champ to be champ of special teams(Lindsay Jones)
No, that wasn't an error on the play-by-play report from the Broncos' 44-13 victory at Kansas City on Sunday. That really was Champ Bailey — yes, the likely future Hall of Fame cornerback — running downfield on a kickoff and making a solo tackle on a third-quarter kick return.

DP - Broncos' Prater has a big leg up on 2008(Jeff Legwold)
It's a simple, proven formula. To play the kind of field-position football the Broncos want to play down the stretch, it will start with their kicker, Matt Prater.

DP - Moreno looking good for the long run(Jim Armstrong)
This just in. Knowshon Moreno, after a preseason that included the obligatory contract holdout and a knee injury, is on pace to run for 1,000 yards.

DP - Harris out: What it means for the line(Lindsay Jones)
There is no doubt the Broncos will miss right tackle Ryan Harris, who is not going to be able to play the rest of the season because of the serious injury to his big right toe.

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Reed Hoffmann - AP

9 days ago: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Brodie Croyle (12) has a pass attempt blocked by Denver Broncos tight end Richard Quinn (81) during a fake punt attempt at the start of the second half of their game, giving the Broncos the ball deep in Chiefs territory in their NFL football game in Kansas City, Mo., Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

Browse more photos »

Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of ST&NO. After being sick last week, and running an abbreviated version on Wednesday, I am back in full effect this week. I feel kind of like Stringer Bell in season 2 of The Wire, when Avon Barksdale was locked up, and their supplier cut them off. Stringer said he needed to put out a smoker to hold the towers, and I feel like a smoker is similarly needed this week with ST&NO. After all, I can't really do what Stringer actually did, when he couldn't get his raw dope, and change the name. Nobody is going to read a column called Death Grip, you know? (Really, I don't know what kind of drug addict would buy dope called Death Grip, but that's neither here nor there.) Anyway, here comes the high test stuff, with the same name as always. So fill up your coffee, get comfortable, and let's get right to it. Ready.... BEGIN!!!

1. You have to like how the Broncos looked Sunday, even in spite of 3 turnovers by Kyle Orton. They once again beat down a bad team, which is what good teams have to do. They shot a hole in the terribly inane thinking that they couldn't win in Kansas City in December, and they strengthened their hold on the 5th seed in the playoffs. Helping matters, the Steelers and Ravens both lost to fall to 6-6, so their two competitors who beat them head-to-head lost some ground. I fully expect Jacksonville to choke, and I am starting to think that Miami is going to sneak into the 6th spot, actually.

In any case, the Broncos are in a pretty good place right now. Peter King declared them to be toast two weeks ago, done, kaput. On Monday, he called them a psycho team, and ranked them 10th in the Fool 15. I am still feeling good about this Indianapolis game, and I am sure that the Broncos match up pretty well with the Colts. Coverage is the only way to beat them, and the Broncos are back to covering as well as anybody. I fully expect the Broncos to run for 150 yards against the Colts too, if they can keep the score within striking distance.

It's a good Tuesday to be a Broncos fan. Our team is in in the midst of a season which we can only consider to be a success up until this point. They've come together as a team, learned how to win close games against good teams, learned how to blow out bad teams, and figured out their brand new schemes. They've seemingly bought into one of the main Patriots mantras, that Durability is more important than Ability. Everybody is working hard to Do Their Job. This is when it's good to be a fan of a team, and when it's good to be a fan of a team, it's great to be alive.

2. Information From My Eyes - Denver at Kansas City

a. Kyle Orton had a C+ game, but I felt like all three turnovers he committed were a result of him being somewhat greedy. He's supposed to be the guy who checks it down when nothing is there, isn't he? I hope that film provides a good reminder for him to do so.

b. Knowshon Moreno improves every week, and he's really looking decisive lately. You can tell that he has had a big dose of Bobby Turner's foot in his backside this year. For a pick I didn't love when it was made, I have really come to be happy with Knowshon.

c. I was pretty worried during Kansas City's 20 play first quarter drive, because the tackling and gap discipline looked pretty bad. The Broncos sure stiffened by the goal line, though, and they set the tone for the rest of the game's defensive performance.

d. I meant to talk about setting the edge last week, but I forgot to. My brother Chris felt that Matt Millen made too much of the concept during the Broncos-Giants game, but I disagree, because it's all-important to the way the Broncos run the ball, and the way they defend against the run. The Broncos have been fanstastic in their own running game with setting the edge the past two games, led by Daniel Graham. He is getting out and winning his battles outside, and giving the runners a sealed edge to run inside of. Many of Correll Buckhalter's big runs on Sunday came just inside of Graham.

On defense, the idea is the same, but the defender wants to push the edge man back into the inside, and close off the outside lane. Mario Haggan has been doing this as well as any LB in the NFL this season. He has really found his niche as a physical, upfield run player. Ryan McBean makes a lot of plays in this way, as well.

Winning the physical battles at the edge is the key to everything for the Broncos, and they lost those battles during the losing streak. Since they've gotten back to winning, it's been no accident that they're winning at the edge on both sides of the ball.

e. The kick return where Eddie Royal faked a reverse to Brandon Marshall was interesting. I expect to see them actually hand that off one of these weeks.

f. Alphonso Smith needs to knock off the sucker penalties.

g. Spencer Larsen is an appreciably better blocker than Peyton Hillis. He just thumps guys, and it goes well with the work that Graham and Richard Quinn are doing at TE.

h. Tony Scheffler had a huge 3^rd down drop in 2^nd Quarter, and it was exactly the kind of play that has prevented the Broncos from being an elite offense. You have to make plays when they are available to be made. At least Scheffler blasted the return man on the ensuing punt.

i. Tamba Hali is a good fit for the 3-4, as I have been saying since the preseason. He's aggressive, quick, strong, and as a lifelong down DE, he has very good technique. The first sack he got on Ryan Clady was all technique. The Broncos did take advantage of Hali's aggressiveness on both TD passes, though, and also on the 49 yard bubble screen that Brandon Marshall had.

j. I saw where somebody said we should thank Phildelphia for Brian Dawkins and Correll Buckhalter. Miami is due a thank you card for Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill, as well. If Goodman were just a little better tackler, I'd be even happier, but everybody should have noticed by now that the ball just seems to find its way into his hands.

k. Matt Prater has developed into one of the best kickers in the NFL. It's time we all realize that, and appreciate his work.

l. My biggest problem with Mitch Berger is that he takes too long to get the ball off. He had yet another seeing-eye punt on Sunday, which inexplicably missed a dead-to-rights block. Upgrading the punter position has to be a huge priority in the offseason.

m. It was great to see Peyton Hillis running the ball again, and he reminded the world that he can do some damage with it. Hopefully, the performance will get him some snaps on offense, because he clearly has something to contribute.

n. I really like Darcel McBath as a matchup safety. He is always around the ball when he is on the field, and I think his pick was a triumph of player evaluation. Draftniks considered him a reach, but he was hard to spot on some abysmal Texas Tech defensive units. He clearly has the goods, though; it jumps off the screen at you.

3. Information From My Eyes - Other games

a. I watched most of the San Francisco-Seattle game, and you know that means I will have some Alex Smith thoughts. He played great on Sunday, and did everything the team needed from him to win, short of missing one open receiver on a deep out in the 4^th quarter. It was the first 300 yard passing game of his career, and it should have been a lot more. His teammates dropped at least 9 passes in the game, including 3 TDs, by Delanie Walker, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree.

b. Speaking of Smith, I meant to clear up an uttlerly stupid comment made by the always-brilliant Solomon Wilcots during last week's game. The head cold I was feeling made me forget to mention it, I guess. Wilcots noticed that the 49ers were (smartly) using Smith in the shotgun very frequently, and he said (I'm paraphrasing) that Smith was very comfortable, because he had used the exact same offense throughout college.

That's very interesting, Saruman, except, he didn't. This gets to my constant annoyance about the term "Spread Offense." There is no one monolithic spread offense. There are college teams which do some similar things formationally, with a lot of WRs, and many plays with the QB taking snaps from the shotgun, but the actual plays vary greatly. The 49ers aren't doing anything that is much like the Urban Meyer offense he played in at Utah. There are no option plays, and no shovel passes. The pass routes are actually tending to be much more horizontal and timed than the stuff he did in college.

A bunch of WRs and a shotgun setup does not mean you're playing a "spread offense," and saying that you're playing a "spread offense" doesn't mean the same thing from one place to the next. Smith is most comfortable in his footwork and reads from the shotgun, and he has time to get the ball out before he gets crushed behind the Niners terrible O-line. Smith has been sacked only once in the last 2 games. My only concern is that they've abandoned the run too much, and need to stick to it much more.

c. I remember thinking that Seattle looked pretty good against the Broncos in the preseason, but as I watched the game today, I was thinking that I really don't like the way their team is constructed. They have 3 terribly overpaid guys at WR (Deion Branch, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Nate Burleson), and not much talent at RB or on the offensive line. The only players I really like at all on their defense are Brandon Mebane and Aaron Curry. They have a lot of money invested in Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill at LB, but I think both guys are just solid players (Tatupu is currently hurt, obviously.) I think they ought to go to a 3-4, if they can get a good NT in the offseason. (A few should be available.) The guy they have, Colin Cole, is more of a backup caliber guy. They could stand up Patrick Kerney, and use Curry in a blitzing role, which he is best suited for. Of course, their secondary will still be lousy, unless they address it.

d. Chad Henne looked really good on Sunday. I had the Miami-New England game on the smaller TV, during the Broncos game, and just about every time I looked over, he was making a play for his team. If he keeps it up, he'll be able to easily afford tattoo removal before too long.

e. ST&NO favorite Sean Smith had an interesting game on Sunday. He gave up an 81 yard TD to Sam Aiken on a play where he had perfect bump and run coverage but didn't find the ball in the air, and fell down trying. Later, he got beaten by Aiken on a double move, and Tom Brady overthrew him by about a foot. He got beat on a perfectly covered play, and got lucky on a busted coverage play. Such is the nature of being a CB playing a lot of man-to-man. By the way, Smith continues to look like he'll have a long career as one of the best man coverage players in the NFL.

f. I really liked what the Giants did on defense Sunday against Dallas, and I picked them based upon some moves I heard about during the week. For one thing, they moved a good CB, Aaron Ross, to FS, and benched the abysmal C.C. Brown. For another, they took a big-name guy, Osi Umenyiora, out of the starting lineup, and replaced him with Mathias Kiwanuka. Osi struggles against the run, and the Broncos continually ran at him on Thanksgiving night. The Giants correctly identified their top priority as containing the Dallas running game, and made the move to the stouter Kiwanuka.

The effect was that both guys played really well. Umenyiora was actually used quite a bit in coverage, and he did pretty well. He's really a lean, athletic guy, and he did well in that role. He also recovered a key fumble, and returned it for a bunch of yards. The Giants held the Cowboys to 45 yards rushing on 23 carries, and it's the primary reason they won the game.

g. Don't give too much credence to this "Tony Romo/Wade Phillips can't win in December" stuff. Romo, particularly, played pretty well Sunday, and the loss wasn't on him. It was on a few defensive breakdowns which led to big plays, and the aforementioned lack of an effective running game.

Remember the one about correlation not necessarily reflecting causality? There is a real danger to putting too much stock in facts which Peter King insists on incorrectly referring to as factoids. The December record for the Cowboys the past few years is a case in point. It doesn't necessarily foretell what will happen this year, and even if the Cowboys lose a bunch of games this month, it may have nothing to do with the month. Remember, a football game is an independent event, which is comprised of many individual independent events. What happened in the past is meaningless.

h. Another example of this foolishness with meaningless statistics, while we're at it, was any credence being put into the fact that the Broncos were 1-16 all-time in Kansas City, during the month of December. Where to begin with this?

Well, in the most obvious place, of considering the significance of recency. If no players or coaches (or even owners) remain from the time when a game was played, that game has no meaning. A game in 1972 was played between the Chiefs and the Broncos, but not THESE Chiefs and Broncos. A rational person realizes that that game may as well have been between any two teams.

Another idea I had about this, that I wanted to share, harkens back to my days as a Finance major at THE Cleveland State University. There was a required class, Financial Markets and Institutions, which was really a BS class. It was taught by a really overweight, smelly, tenured professor who breathed really heavily, and the dude didn't ever teach anything, ever.

The class met in a computer lab, and consisted of 4 group analysis projects. We were given a bunch of parameters of a hypothetical economic environment, and we had to choose the 3-year period of the last 30 years, which was most predictive of the behavior of whatever financial instrument we were analyzing. We then used data from that 3 year period to analyze and project the performance of that instrument, and built a 6 slide PowerPoint discussing quantitative and qualitative reasons for our analysis. That was a 4 credit class.

Anyway, I was thinking that a reasonable thing to do might be to look into whether there was ever a time in semi-recent history where the two teams profiled like these two do, AND they played a game at Arrowhead in December. I didn't find any instances where the Broncos were a playoff caliber team, the Chiefs were a complete doormat, and the schedule played out this way. You could say I was not surprised at all by Sunday's result.

i. Chris Johnson is very dangerous, but I am not one of these people who is jumping up to call him the best RB in the NFL. For one thing, I think he makes the Titans a finesse running team. They do a ton of zone blocking for him, and he runs to the edges all the time, but without the kind of one-cut decisiveness that Broncos runners have always been coached into employing. Really, Johnson is a bit over-patient, in my opinion, and it's his exceptional burst and speed that let him mostly get away with it. I also continue to have my doubts about Johnson's ability to handle the heavy workload he gets, over a number of years. The Titans would be smart to get a legitimate second guy to take one third of the carries, because they apparently don't think LenDale White is that guy.

j. The Titans blew one on Sunday, and the way they did makes me feel even better about the Broncos' prospects for winning in Indianapolis next week. At halftime, the Titans had 2 more yards, and 6 more minutes of time of possession than the Colts, and Indianapolis led 24-10. The Titans also had 2 turnovers. Nate Washington dropped a perfect deep ball. There were plays available to be made, and the Titans failed to make them.

k. I watched the Steelers debacle against the Raiders, and all I can pin their problems on is missing Troy Polamalu. I think their defensive play-calling is less aggressive without Polamalu, and they're letting QBs have more time to throw the ball than the Steelers are known for doing. Bruce Gradkowski had some real good chances to get the ball downfield at times. It just gets back to the concept of a defense needing all its parts to be effective.

l. This stuff about Gradkowski being the answer for the Raiders is silly. He's a solid backup, and a try-hard guy, but he's not a starter for a winning football team. He lacks accuracy and arm strength, isn't particularly mobile, and just looks kind of underwhelming when you watch him.

m. Everybody knows I am generally not the biggest D.J. Williams lover, and I am going to reveal a closely held secret today, since I wanted to make this a smoker. My main problem with D.J. always has been that he isn't Steven Jackson. Back in 2004, I was fired up for the Broncos to draft Jackson, and a lot of Mel Kipers thought they would. They had just traded Clinton Portis, and I wanted a new RB.

When the Broncos took D.J., I was mad, my brother Chris will tell you. No matter what he ever does, I may not get over it. Anyway, I believe that Jackson is having the best season of any RB in the NFL this season, if you consider his circumstances. He has no QB, no line, not much at WR, and he continues to produce at a very high level. He's still only 26 years old, and he continues to be a great player.

n. Cedric Benson was back to his workhorse ways this week, and Larry Johnson was back to sitting on the bench. I continue to be impressed with the run blocking of Bengals LT Andrew Whitworth. He was a star at LSU, and was believed to be more of a guard, which is why he went in the second round. He has been blowing guys off the ball, though, as a LT. He's been similar to Jake Long, but better this season.

o. Matthew Stafford is clearly a tremendously tough kid, because he's been getting killed every week for the Lions, and he keeps coming back. He has a ways to go from a decision-making perspective, but he has to have the respect of his teammates, and you can't minimize the importance of that to a QB.

p. A lot has been made of the Michael Vick sighting in Atlanta, but the truth of the story is that he played a lot of garbage snaps in a blowout. The best thing you can say about him is that he showed he still has good run skills, and decent throwing skills. He completed both of his throws, but the long ball was kind of a duck thrown into a crowd, where Reggie Brown made a play on the ball. I do think he's going to get a look in a place like Carolina, which has no prospect of drafting a QB early.

q. Some pundit in the ESPN-o-sphere was recently trying to hypopulate that the Falcons were better off with Chris Redman at QB than Matt Ryan. As much of a non-fan of Ryan as I am, that's stupid. There's a good reason Redman was out of the league for more than 3 years, and that it took nepotism from his college coach, Bobby Petrino, to bring him back. He's been solid in some of his appearances, but there's no team in the NFL right now, for whom he is an upgrade over their starter.

r. If you remember back to the 2008 Draft, no WR was selected in the first round, and the first one chosen was Donnie Avery by the Rams. All the draftniks called Devin Thomas the best prospect, and had him going in the first round, and he eventually went one pick after Avery, 34^th.

He's playing fantastic football lately, and his rise really kind of started in the Denver game. Thomas is showing the qualities of a number 1 WR, and whoever his coach is next year, he is really going to benefit from it. Having a big, physical outside player like Thomas opens up the field for a guy like Santana Moss. Washington's recent offensive improvement has a lot to do with the light bulb going on for Thomas.

s. Percy Harvin didn't actually play RB at the University of Florida, and as a UF alum, Cris Collinsworth should know that. Collinsworth was trying to say that Harvin never ran any routes in college, and that couldn't be further from the truth. He didn't exactly run a full tree, but he ran many crossing routes, slants, and go routes. He has incredible run skills for an outside player, but he's a natural WR, make no mistake about it.

t. I hadn't gotten a look at Kurt Warner's wife in awhile, and she seems to have really upgraded her hair-sylist over the years. Back when Kurt won a Super Bowl, she looked like the kind of mom I would see wearing mom jeans, dragging around a bunch of kids at Wal-Mart, if I shopped at Wal-Mart. It's okay to wear mom jeans and shop at Wal-Mart, lest I offend anybody who does, but it's different for the MVP's wife.

u. Do these Gap ads with dancing beautiful people doing cheerleader cadences and wearing plaid make anybody want to go buy plaid clothing? I am interested in marketing and advertising, so if you're a ST&NO reader who finds those ads effective, I'd appreciate you saying so in the comments. My hypothesis is that they don't work well for anybody who reads this column.

v. My other holiday season advertising analysis is as follows: I think the Best Buy caroling store clerks suck, but at least people who watch football tend to buy stuff at Best Buy. I bet they're trying to snag a wife or two with those ads. The Open Hearts collection at Kay Jewelers is of very little interest to the average male football fan, who tends not to care about Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman's mommy's trite advice. Kay ought to stick to their ads which say, "Your wife will give you some incremental action for a couple weeks, if you buy her a diamond. The bigger th diamond, the more action." It communicates the needed psychological message to men better. I do like the Go Forth Levi's ads, and I think they're very effective, vis-à-vis the football watching audience whom they're aired for.

w. The Cardinals are for real, again, and the main reason they are is that they have legitimate stars at every level of their defense. Darnell Dockett has been a star, and Calais Campbell is turning into one at DE. Karlos Dansby is terrific at LB, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Adrian Wilson are both big-time players too. The underrated guy who I like is Antrel Rolle. He was kind of a bust as a first round CB, but he's terrific as a matchup safety. He's very smart, and can match up man-to-man with inside WRs or TEs. He also has excellent ball skills. The Cardinals could beat any team in the NFL on a day where both their offense and defense are clicking, because their personnel is definitely good enough on both sides of the ball.

x. Watching the Packers version of the 3-4 Monday night, I was struck by the difference between what they're doing, and what the Broncos do. Denver's scheme is much more similar to what the Cardinals, Ravens, and Jets are doing, where the pass rush is fairly conservative, and setting the edge and keeping contain responsibilities is often the main concern. If you watch what the outside rushers do for the Broncos a lot of times, they're not coming full-steam at the QB. Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers, and Darrell Reid are often asked to do more wrestling with O-Linemen than they are asked to run around people.

The Packers play more like the Steelers, where they're speed rushing off the edge. The point I am getting to is that Clay Matthews is a great fit for what the Packers are asking him to do, where Ayers is more of a fit for the Broncos scheme, despite his lack of sacks. Ayers has just missed a lot of sacks, and with better technique, he'll get there. He's doing a lot more than running around people, though.

y. Jermichael Finley is enormously talented, and is really starting to come into his own for the Packers. You can see that Aaron Rodgers is really developing a lot of trust in him.

z. The Packers are really protecting Rodgers a lot better than they were in the early part of the season. I've been very critical of Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher both over the past two years, but they've been an upgrade over the bums they replaced. Tauscher even caught his first NFL pass on Monday night, off a deflection.

aa. Rodgers is really starting to remind me of Rich Gannon in his Raiders years. He's so calm, and he goes to the right place with the ball all the time, with accuracy. He's playing as well as any QB in the NFL this season if you consider what he is doing independently.

ab. Lardarius Webb is so dangerous returning kickoffs. The Ravens, again, found a gem in the Draft

ac. Everybody knows I am a Joe Flacco fan, but he needs to remember never to throw the ball late down the middle. The officials tried to give the Ravens the game with all those late pass interference penalties and Flacco blew the game with his late interceptions.

4. Most regulars know that I am a Florida Gators fan, so I was pretty disappointed in the result of the SEC Championship game. Alabama deserved to win, because they made every play that was available for them to make. Florida made plays with very few of their opportunities, and that's what happens.

Anyway, nobody can deny that that game was a bonanza of future NFL players. I wanted to share some thoughts on about 10 guys who I think could go in the first 2 rounds in April, from the two schools.

a. Carlos Dunlap DE Florida Top 5

Mel Kiper downgraded Dunlap to 14^th on his Big Board after his DUI, but that's not going to mean anything when he compares favorably to Mario Williams in testing and measurements. His college film is better too, and he can play in any type of front. He and Ndamukong Suh will be the first two defensive players drafted.

b. Joe Haden CB Florida Top 10

Haden is by far the best CB in the nation. His play was a lonely bright spot for Florida, as he shut down the extremely talented Julio Jones. Haden is fast, fluid, smart, strong, and he has excellent ball skills. He compares as a prospect to Darrelle Revis.

c. Terrence Cody NT Alabama Top 20

He's not fat anymore, and he's covering a lot more space laterally than he did a year ago. His athleticism really flashes for such a huge man, and his strength is terrific. He punked Florida into not even trying to run their dive series. I'm a big fan of this guy.

d. Brandon Spikes ILB Florida Top 20

Spikes is not an elite athlete, but he's an elite player. He's downhill all the time in the running game, and he strikes guys as hard as any college player you'll ever see. He's also as naturally gifted and instinctive in pass coverage as Ray Lewis, and he's a similar type of emotional leader. What intrigues me most at the NFL level with Spikes is his natural pass-rushing skills. He really can get after a QB. He'll only run a 4.65 or 4.7, but he'll be an every down player, and make a bunch of Pro Bowls, trust me.

e. Rolando McClain ILB Alabama Top 20

McClain is big, fast, and smart. He's a bit less of a playmaker than Spikes, and more of a cerebral guy than an emotional one. He'll be a very good 3-4 ILB for many years in the NFL.

f. Tim Tebow QB Florida Top 25

Scouts don't like him that much, but coaches love him. Mike Shanahan, Tony Dungy, and Bill Belichick are all on record as thinking he'll be a big-time QB in the NFL. I am pretty sure the Jaguars are going to take him in the first round if he's on the board. Even Florida Governor Charlie Crist (an FSU guy, actually) was in the media Monday calling for it to happen. There is no doubt in my mind that he can play at the NFL level, despite his divergence from norms. He's the second coming of Donovan McNabb to me.

g. Aaron Hernandez TE Florida First Round

Hernandez is a junior, and he's not a huge or great in-line blocker. He's a tremendously gifted receiver though, as good as any who has been draft-eligible in many years. He is extremely dangerous after the catch, which is rare for a guy his size (6-2, 250.)

h. Javier Arenas CB Alabama Second Round

I really like Arenas as a CB, but I love him as a return man. I think he projects as a solid #2 CB, and a Pro Bowl caliber special teams player. His short, stout build works against him as a CB, but for him as a ball carrier.

i. Riley Cooper WR Florida Second Round

Who? He's the tall white guy who has been wearing #11 the past two years. (He wore #86 the first two, when he was primarily a special teamer.) He's been called the fastest Gator in a 60 yard dash, and as Gary Danielson noted on Saturday, nobody seems to be able to cover him, especially when they try to press him. Cooper had his way with Arenas several times, and he dominated Patrick Robinson from Florida State the week before. He's 6-3, 215 pounds, and very strong, which he puts to use in beating press coverage, and he's a dominant blocker outside. He projects as an outside-the-numbers deep threat type, and special teams ace, and when he runs a 4.35 at the combine, he's going to shoot up boards. The only question is if he'd rather play baseball instead (he's part of the Rangers minor league system already.) I think his future is brighter in football.

j. Jermaine Cunningham DE-OLB Florida Second Round

Cunningham projects as a starter at the NFL level, probably as an OLB in a 30 front. He plays much bigger than his size, and takes on blocks well. He kind of reminds me of Mario Haggan, actually.

k. Mike Johnson G Alabama Second Round

This is the type of guy I'd like to see the Broncos take in the second round. He is a strong and experienced drive blocker.

You can add in a few more Gators too, who seem less likely to declare at this moment, if they do. The Pouncey twins, Mike and Maurkice, project as late first or second round picks as interior offensive linemen, and S Major Wright looks like a second rounder to me.

5. I meant to mention this last week too, and I wanted to make the point. Matt Millen was a terrible general manager, but he is an outstanding in-game color analyst. There is nobody on TV who adds more value to a fan's understanding of what is going on than Millen does.

During the Broncos-Giants game, he pointed out how Kyle Orton was calling out the Mike. The average fan doesn't know what a Mike is, so Millen mentioned that it generally means Middle Linebacker. He also went on to mention that the reason Orton is calling out a Mike is to communicate to the protection that that player is the fifth player to account for. A lot of times it was a defensive back, but Orton was communicating who he thought was the most likely fifth rusher.

After the Monday night game, he was talking about how the Packers have shored up their protection, particularly against the double A-gap blitzing that Baltimore loves to do. It's a little bit hard to separate the man from his art, but you have to. He's outstanding on TV, and should be listened to.

My friend Tony from Norwich sent me this link last week, where the Sporting News rated the best sportscasters. I found it interesting, so I thought I'd share it, since it's germane to this rant. I think they have some total losers on their list, primarily Al Michaels, Verne Lundquist, Dan Fouts, and Mike Patrick. Lundquist is the worst play-by-play man ever, if you ask me.

Just prior to the start of the SEC Championship Debacle, Verne was getting down to business. Paraphrasing, he said, "I don't know what Alabama is doing, but Javier Arenas isn't on the field to return this kick." As number 28 warmed up on the TV screen, waiting for the kick to arrive. I threw my Gator hat across the room, and Tweeted:

He misidentifies players constantly, and gets a lot of rules-related topics wrong too. Gary Danielson is excellent, but Verne is a 9,000 ton anchor dragging him down.

6. I got a reader email which forced to be a little introspective last week, and I need to address something real quick, as a result of it. The reader didn't sign the message, but the crux of it was that he/she felt like I am really full of myself, and that that was "repugnant." (Repugnant was his/her actual word.)

I didn't thnk I would ever need to do this, but I am going to explain the central concept of ST&NO, so there's clarity among us all. The premise of this feature, for which I am sure I have written well over 100,000 words during the past year, is that insightful analysis can be, and should be, combined with humor, personality, and entertaining writing. Every week, that's what I try to bring to the table, and I work hard to make this a coherent, continuous, unified narrative, which everybody can feel like they're part of.

Now, I am definitely not known for false humility. What good does it do to pretend to lack self-awareness, for the comfort of insecure people? I know my work is very good, and if I didn't think it was, I think I'd be an A-clown to spend so much time on it. Everybody who does this has some ego about their work, believe me.

Believe it or not, watching 6 games on a Monday night, and then writing for 6 hours after that, after working all day, can get pretty boring and tiresome. It is work, just like what I do in my office all day. I choose to do this work because you, my readers, reaffirm that you want to read it every week. It's not worth the effort to just do it for myself.

Now, understand that I'm not going to change anything, really. Not being Joe Milquetoast is frankly a subtle part of the humor of ST&NO, and it's a true picture of who I am as a person. I'm not at all meek, and I'm not looking to inherit the Earth, or any other damn thing. I'm here to work hard and personally earn what I get. When I say I am a high-talent, high-work ethic accountant, it's because that is a demonstrable fact. You'll recall that I said it as part of a larger point about football and the media environment. I have thought all week about whether I am inappropriately arrogant, and I really think that the answer is no. I think I land in a reasonable place, really, given the givens. So, I am going to keep writing, I am going to keep doing work that I am proud of, and I am going to do it to add value for you, and for future readers who aren't even aware of ST&NO yet. I humbly thank you all for being my readers and commenters, and that was the type of humility that I do value; the genuine kind.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. Okay, I need to end on a good note, and I am going to bed at 1 AM Cleveland time, on Tuesday morning, so I can think and dream on what that note should be. I'll be back in 5 1/2 hours to finish up, hopefully with a great idea. Ready..... STOP

Okay, I am back. Ready.... BEGIN!!! My alarm wakes me up to the local low-brow morning radio show, Rover's Morning Glory. Through my adventures with the snooze bar, I got to hear a lot of stilted Tiger Woods chatter, because apparently, his wife split, and he had some other blond woman over who left in an ambulance this morning.

He's being an idiot, from the sound of things. I don't know who is advising him; maybe T.O.'s publicist who said he had 25 million reasons to live? Tiger ought to just fess up for everything, like David Letterman. When you're in the mud, you might as well just get everything out there voluntarily, because there's no more incremental damage he could take. If you're Wee-Bey, and you're already going to prison for life for six murders, you might trade copping to a few more for a sandwich. The number ceases to matter, as long as it all comes out now.

Tiger's reputation is fried in this moment, so he might as well say, look, yes, I was out fooling around with a lot of other women. I am not even sure how many, but it was more than several. This is a flaw in my character which I am working hard to overcome. Elin and I appreciate you giving us the benefit of some privacy, as we work through a very hard time in each of our lives. (Then, you quit having women over for awhile, and even if you don't, you make sure none of them leave your house in an ambulance.)

By not deflating the story with an "it was a lot / I have a problem" blanket statement, Tiger is letting each new revelation, by each self-serving former mistress, hurt him individually. Duji, the radio chick, was saying there are 10 who have now been identified. That's really not that many, if you're just a regular guy who is serious about philandering. A very average man could do that in a couple months, pretty easily. If you're Tiger Woods, you could have 10 in about 3 days.

Remember the haters? Well, a lot of people love to hate Tiger. He's there with Roger Federer, Derek Jeter, Tom Brady, and Jeff Gordon in that way, as guys who are so talented, and so polished that relatively untalented and unpolished people are apt to hate them. (Gordon ought to have a Gillette commercial, too. I bet they figure people who like Gordon already use good shaving equipment.) It's really an ugly trait, to root for the failure of the most talented people, but a lot of people do it. Let's drag everybody down to our own level.

Tiger needs to go on Oprah or Letterman (probably Letterman is better, given the circumstances.) If he gets all the way clean, and then disappears off the public radar for a few months, this can be stopped pretty effectively. The TMZ's and their ilk will still try to keep it going, but it will fade pretty quickly when there is no new news. Letterman already isn't being actively cast as a philanderer. Tiger can come back in the spring, with a pre-packaged narrative about how these trying times have caused him to re-invest himself in his golf game, win a few tournaments (people will perceive him to have slipped, even though he was recently playing fine), and turn this into a redemption story. Americans love redemption stories, after all.

That's all I have for this week, friends. Have a great one, and as always, tell me what you think in the comments. ST&NO may be ending for now, but the discussion is just beginning.

Some Good News - Darrell Reid Food Fest

John Bena — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:47:22 -0000

Darrell_Reid_Smile

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I know there is plenty of negativity going around regarding the Broncos, but as we approach the holiday season I think it is important to recognize these players and people in our society as well - showing what they are doing in the community. Broncos LB Darrell Reid is very active, as are many of the Broncos, and Reid's Footz Foundation is holding one such event that can make us all proud to be Broncos fans, win or lose.

Reid, and his charity the Footz Foundation, will be giving traditional Thanksgiving food, including turkeys, to 20 less fortunate Denver area families this Thanksgiving. The 3- to 10-member families will also receive additional food to help them make it through the holiday season without going hungry. The families are members of Boys & Girls Clubs of Metro Denver, Wilfley Branch. Darrell will also speak to the kids about the importance of not giving up, both in life and on themselves. A natural leader on and off the field, he will inspire them. Darrell will also take pictures and sign autographs.

Darrell believes in this cause and wants to make it a special night for these kids, many of whom have had traumatic experiences and have been separated from loved ones. Now embarking on a very tough journey to start over, with some very unstable roads at times, these kids will draw strength and confidence from their time with Darrell. He is not just a figurehead in whatever he does, he is a participant and a role model. He leads by example and rolls up his sleeves and gets involved. Darrell wants to provide a "bright spot" for the kids in the center. He wants them to know that there is always a reason to hope and believe, and to never give up.

"Sometimes just bringing a smile to a child's face, and hearing laughter is gift enough - especially if it is allowing their minds to wander away from their troubles, even for a moment," says Darrell.

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:30:18 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

about 1 month ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall is stopped by Washington Redskins cornerback DeAngelo Hall during the third quarter of the NFL football game, Nov. 15, 2009 in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Here we are again, with another loss to contend with. This one is worse than the last two, because this one looked like a sure victory when we were marking off W's and L's on the schedule. Of course, if Kyle Orton didn't get hurt, it probably is a W, and the Broncos are still sitting on a 1-game lead over the Chargers. Since that's not the way it played out, we have to do the other thing.

We'll get into the details, from soup to chocolate cake, and make some sense of all this, because that's what we do here. We'll explore what happened, we'll find some things to feel positive about, and we'll have some fun. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!!

1. There's a certain interconnectedness to a football game, and its outcome, among all phases of the game, and all 45 active players. I've talked about this many times before, and John Bena called the loss a team effort in his postgame writeup. I would call this a team effort whose final score is mostly attributable to the poor second half play of the offense, and mostly, of Chris Simms.

What I mean by that is this. Over the first 6 games of the season, the Broncos led the league in scoring defense. They were especially strong defensively in the second half of games. That trend has been turned on its head the last 3 weeks. The last two weeks, especially, I believe that the main reason why the defense struggled in the second half was that they were on the field for too many plays, due to the struggles of the offense. Each side of the ball needs to help the other. The Broncos have been getting shut down on offense, and worn down on defense, and it's been difficult to watch.

Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth were going on and on Sunday night about how the Colts led the NFL in scoring defense heading into this week. If you've watched the Colts, they don't even have a particularly good defense, if there is any chance you can run the ball against them. They have allowed so few points because they deliberately shorten the game when they're on offense, and because once they get a lead, the strength of their defense comes to the fore. They rush the passer well with four men, and drop 7 men into cover-2. If you stay out of situations that are favorable to Indianapolis, you can gash their defense.

This is what has been happening to the Broncos as well. Remember - in the first 6 games, the offense did its best work in the second half of games. They possessed the ball, they took their time, and they methodically controlled the games. When the defense was on the field, they were fresh, they substituted frequently, and they made plays to get off the field quickly.

Kyle Orton played great in the first half Sunday, just as he'd played very well in the first half of the Pittsburgh game, (outside the one interception). For all the hollering that went on about his lack of deep throwing, he threw a couple very nice deep balls for TDs to Brandon Marshall, and he just barely missed another to Eddie Royal. That opened the field vertically. He also did a very nice job on a few bootleg throws to Tony Scheffler, and a crossing pattern to Marshall. Those plays stretched the field horizontally.

The Broncos had Washington where they wanted them. Remember, they moved the ball on the possession where Correll Buckhalter fumbled, and they had the 17-play drive at the end of the first half, to take the 3-point lead. The Orton injury changed the entire complexion of the game. Simms simply couldn't complete a pass, and didn't seem to know where to go with the ball, and a lot of good work by Knowshon Moreno was wasted.

Most teams will struggle when they lose their starting QB. That's a function of the fact that there aren't 32 good QBs in the NFL, let alone 64 of them. I came into this game thinking that the Broncos are in good shape with Simms, if they needed to use him. I hope that he shows better if he has to play against San Diego, after a week of first-team reps. I still do tend to think that Simms can play.

You hate to have a game get away from you because your backup QB couldn't cut it. The only thing worse would be if two games got away for that reason. I expect that Josh McDaniels will have Simms ready to go next week, and that the gameplan will play to his strengths, if they need to use him.

You have to be careful not to let one game unduly affect an evaluation of a team. All the time, teams lay eggs in games, and lose (or nearly lose) to teams they should blow out. Look no further than New Orleans on Sunday, who seemingly tried to lose to St. Louis. Not to say that Dallas should have blown out Green Bay, but they shouldn't have gotten dominated like they did, either.

There's a lot of Chicken Little stuff going on here, and the one thing that will stop it is a victory against San Diego next week. Yes, I know that the Chargers are on a winning streak and the Broncos are on a losing streak. Remember when the Broncos had won 6 in a row, and the Ravens had lost 3 in a row? The Broncos can beat San Diego, which we know, because they already have this season. If they win that game, they'll re-take command of the division, with a one-game lead, and a sweeping of the head-to-head matchup.

2. In the big-time matchup of the week, the Colts got a win against the Patriots, and on Monday, Bill Belichick is being blamed by everybody who doesn't like him personally (AKA just about everyone). The fact is, Belichick has never curried favor with the media, and reporters tend to be critical of you every chance they get, if you don't pay them their due deference.

Joe Biden could tell you all about how that works. He never trusted the media after their treatment of the death of his first wife and daughter in 1972, and it always hurt him later, particularly in his two Presidential bids. John McCain and Barack Obama both have very deft touches with the media, and longstanding strategies of providing them a lot of access, and it was no accident that both were the nominees of their parties in 2008. If you're going to be a public figure, there's a clear benefit to cultivating relationships with reporters. The thing is, not everybody has the stomach for it, and Belichick is one of those guys who doesn't. Brett Favre benefits immensely from his relationship-building efforts, to the point of it being sickening most of the time. I heard somewhere recently that Favre spends hours with the TV guys on Saturday afternoons, as long as they want to hang out, and they really can't help but love on him.

Back to the lecture at hand, I would have done exactly the same thing as Belichick in that game situation, in going for it on 4th and 2 from his own 28. Why did he do it? Because he was pretty close to certain that he would lose the game if he punted, that's why.

Let's say you go by the book, and punt. Over all 2,293 punts in the NFL in 2008, the average net change in field position was 39.53 yards. The right call, if you ask Peter King, or others, was to punt, and give Manning the ball at his own 32, with about 2 minutes, and all 3 timeouts left. I say that that is choosing to lose the game in a way that will leave the coach blameless, as far as the idiot media is concerned. Well, he trusted his defense, and he played the percentages; it's not the coach's fault. Except he didn't play the percentages.

First of all, let's get this nonsense about trusting your defense dispensed with. You should always trust your defense. Former defensive players like Tedy Bruschi, Matt Bowen, and old friend Tom Jackson love this line of thinking, but it's utter horse (manure). You should only trust your defense if you think they are likely to make the stop, and win you the game. If you think they aren't, then it's a fool's errand to trust them. You say to them, hey, realistically, you guys probably weren't going to stop Peyton Manning, which really doesn't make you much different from any other team's defense. There is no room for blind machismo, or making a statement, or worrying about hurt feelings; this is about winning football games, nothing more.

I didn't spend a great deal of time on it, but I took a look at every game recap for the Colts since 2005. (I think 4 ½ seasons is a reasonable sample size.) Since then, including the postseason, Manning has had the ball late in the game, trailing, on 19 occasions which I counted. He came through to either tie or take the lead 15 times, which is a 79% success rate. (In 2007, he was 1-for-4, which was pretty aberrant for this sample. Two of those misses were against the strong 2007 Chargers, whom the Colts struggled to pass-protect against.)

Here's the deal. Statistically, you have a 60% chance of picking up 4th and 2, but that probability is almost certainly greater, due to the fact that you have an outstanding offense, and the Colts have an average-at-best defense. If I were Belichick, I would have put my conversion probability at 70% for that play. That same source says that an average team returning a punt, given those field position- and time parameters, scores 53% of the time. We already know Manning succeeds 79% of the time, because he's one of the greatest QBs ever.

You can choose to probably win, or you can choose to probably lose, in one moment. What do you choose?

Belichick chose to probably win, and came up on the side where the probable outcome wasn't the actual outcome. Serious poker players know exactly what I am talking about here. Sometimes, you play the hand correctly, and you go all-in with the best cards, but you lose anyway. It's a fact of life. You accept it, and you don't complain about it, because you know you made the right call, regardless of the outcome. The next time you're faced with the same situation, you do the same thing, again, because it was the right call.

When I got home Monday night, all I saw and heard was TV talking heads second-guessing the decision. Stuart Scott pretty much butchered the stats, but he actually cited our friends at AdvancedNFLStats.com. The shockingly anti-intellectual Steve Young promptly claimed that the stats aren't legitimate (except they are). We got to hear from Tedy Bruschi how he'd feel as a defensive player on the Patriots, as if that's germane to anything at all. Trent Dilfer's blood boils when he hears the "other side" of the argument, AKA the correct side. Blah, blah, blah. (Sorry, brief possession by an ex-wife-like-entity again.)

Just imagine the reaction if Kevin Faulk had made the 2 yards. The stories today would have been about the stones on Belichick, and how he is such a great coach to make a risky call. It would be like Mike Shanahan going for 2 in the Hochuli Game last season. (Shanahan correctly thought that was his best chance to win. He felt he had a better-than-50 percent chance of scoring the conversion, and he knew that he had a 50% chance of winning a coin toss, and about a 98% chance that the Chargers would score in overtime, if he lost the toss.)

I'm no great defender of Belichick, the man, but when he's right, he's right. If it's an average QB, and an average offense, you might punt in that situation, but against Manning, that's always going to be the wrong call on 4th and 2. Once again, Belichick is smarter than the average bear, and smarter than every member of the football MSM.

3. Information From My Eyes - Broncos at Redskins

a. All four deep throws Orton made were good throws. Eddie Royal misjudged the one incompletion, and Brandon Marshall got out-fought by DeAngelo Hall on the second, but both were definitely well-thrown balls.

b. That fake field goal was a debacle, but I don't personally blame Mike Priefer. My goat on that play is Darrell Reid, who was telling Marcus Thomas to cover Mike Sellers, while he decided to contain the left edge of the offense, as the play flowed right. Alphonso Smith caught some initial blame, but I disagree there. He was in deep center field, and flowed with the play, like anybody would coach him to. Who knew Hunter Smith could throw back across the field?

c. Ryan Clady got beat badly once on Sunday. That doesn't happen often at all, obviously. That's the first sack he allowed that I would say was fully on him.

d. From the department of good news, Matt Prater doesn't seem to be having a second-half slump this season.

e. I was very impressed with Knowshon Moreno's vision and quickness on Sunday.

f. I've already made my evaluation of Mitch Berger, so everybody knows where I am at on that one. I saw somewhere where Frank Schwab, some beat reporter, speculated that Mitch Berger's 65-yard punt might save his job. If a kick that went about 42 yards in the air, and rolled 23 on the ground can do that, something absurd is going on.

g. I had a busy workday Monday, which set my schedule back, and is unfortunately going to preclude me from taking the time to do Between The Lines this week.

On watching the game a second time, though, it occurred to me that the bulk of Washington's success in running the ball was on zone-blocked plays. As I think about it, the Broncos haven't faced much of that this season at all; really just Oakland, who does it crappily. That's really something to work on, because the lateral movement seemed to unsettle the Broncos defensive line.

h. D.J. Williams got blocked a lot, and took a lot of bad angles. Again. This is getting to be an annoying habit.

i. Andra Davis continued to be a bright spot. He is a terrific blitzer and has a great sense of timing for delaying his rush. His missed tackle on that Devin Thomas catch and run in the 4th quarter was bad, but he otherwise graded out very well.

j. On a painful second pass watching the game, Chris Simms lacked timing with the receivers, as much as anything. Every throw was a little late. It seems like Orton may be able to play next Sunday, but if it's Simms, I hope a week's worth of reps will help him build some timing.

4. Information From My Eyes - Other Games:

a. I was really curious to see the Buffalo-Tennessee game, and I recorded the Short Cut overnight, and watched the game Monday evening. Why would I care about this game? Well, the two teams played in the Hall of Fame Game, way back when it was still warm in Cleveland, and my girlfriend at the time called at halftime to break up with me.

In that game, the Bills couldn't block Tennessee, and the Titans looked like a Super Bowl team. So, I wanted to watch Sunday's game, because I wanted a good sense of where these two teams are. Tennessee probably isn't going to make the playoffs, after starting 0-6, but they've righted their ship, and they'd be trouble if they did make it. Their defensive line is still nasty, and I continue to be impressed with the job William Hayes is doing in replacing Jevon Kearse.

b. On the other side, the Bills still are below average on their offensive line. Their two highly-drafted rookies, Eric Wood, and Andy Levitre, particularly struggled, as they both had in the preseason game. Levitre even ended up playing some LT, due to an injury, and he really struggled outside. Wood got pushed backwards consistently in the passing game, and he's been generally pretty good as a rookie. The Bills need to shore up their offensive line in the offseason, and I am sure their new head coach will make that a priority, if they hire a competent one.

c. I am ready to make a pronouncement. If Vince Young couldn't run, he'd be the second coming of Trent Dilfer. He really isn't much of a thrower of the ball, and he leaves too much air under his throws. You can get by with him in a run-heavy offense, which is what the Titans really are.

Because he can run, he adds a useful element, and the team is really dangerous on option plays, and QB runs. His running ability can dictate that teams play man-to-man defense, and keep a guy out of coverage to spy him. Really, the Titans are back to being the 10-6ish team they were in 2007. I think they'll ultimately decide to stick with Young for next season, and look to build up the interior of their offensive line, and their back 7 on defense.

d. It seems like forever ago, but I did watch the Chicago-San Francisco game intently last Thursday. I think my first thought that I'd like to share is that the Bears defense played like they had some pride. I think Tommie Harris playing well made a huge difference. He is really the key to their whole scheme. I ripped him, and them, last week, and I told the guy from WCG who took exception that I'd say when they played well on defense. They did.

e. I don't really feel like I should say anything about Jay Cutler, because this column aims to stay away from saying obvious things. I'll just say it must be nice to have so many apologists when you mess up. He's like the second coming of Ronald Reagan with how teflon he is.

(Tangential ST&NO story - Reagan is a member of my fraternity. When he died in June of 2004, I was a senior at CSU, and President of my chapter, and I was asked to go on local television, to talk about Reagan as a fraternity man. Our guys did a fundraiser, and jumped on a trampoline for 54 straight days in the 80s, to break a Guinness record, while Frater Ronnie was POTUS. He sent us a congratulatory letter, so I focused on that with the news chick, Angie Lau. I had nothing but nice things to say, as Ronnie was definitely a good fraternity man.)

f. Peter King is really proud of himself for naming San Francisco's Aubrayo Franklin a midseason All-Pro as a NT. When Franklin got that scoring-area INT early on last Thursday, I kind of groaned, because I knew there was going to be some crowing about it.

I never have felt like Franklin jumped out, so I watched him closely, and my review is mixed. He didn't play a lot of snaps, so I wonder about his conditioning. He did play pretty stout against the run at times, and I felt like he was a good player overall when he was on the field. I could easily name 10-12 interior defensive players who are better, though. I guess it's fun to have a guy who is your guy, though.

g. Is Marc Bulger a veteran QB? I have always thought he was, but his command of clock management seemed really bad on Sunday. The Rams had a pretty good shot to beat the Saints, and Bulger and his receivers blew it. Man, I can't tell you how much I would hate to be associated with that team, in any capacity. It's got to be so disheartening to have no talent, be almost completely uncompetitive, then have a chance to beat an undefeated team, and blow it. Can you imagine what it's like to be a fan of such a team?

h. Reggie Bush had a really big game for the Saints on Sunday, stepping up from his usual "highly-paid-decoy" role. It's interesting to speculate on how the Saints value him. Obviously, they don't think he's a full-time RB, but he's paid like he's Adrian Peterson. I'd be happy to have him as a swing player, between RB and WR, but he's a backup at both positions, and I'd only pay him backup money. We'll soon see what the Saints think, because if I recall correctly, his contract is pretty well back-loaded.

i. Josh Freeman continues to look like he's the real deal for the Buccaneers, and Raheem Morris continues to look like he's gotten his bearings as a Head Coach. Both did a nice job in Sunday's game, despite Miami's comeback victory.

j. Speaking of Miami, I want to address the "Wildcat." The Dolphins are the only team which has had a lot of success with it, and every time they have a game with limited success, somebody speculates that the "trend" has run its course.

The thing is, Miami doesn't treat it like a trend. They treat it as a key part of the way they play offense, which puts their best players on the field together. They are committed to it, and they will continue to run it. They trade the disadvantage of being formationally unlikely to throw for the advantage of having 2-3 players who are good ball-carriers, who might get the ball in the running game. Other teams are finding that the direct-snap game maybe doesn't work for them. For Miami, it will continue to be an important part of their gameplan.

k. Joey Porter has had a pretty sub-par year, and he was a healthy scratch on Sunday. That raised some eyebrows, and Tony Sparano wouldn't comment on it. It actually parallels Adalius Thomas basically being shut down by the Patriots. Both teams are showing that having a big name and a big salary doesn't guarantee playing time, if you aren't producing on the field. Expect both players to be released after the season.

l. Another game I decided to watch on Monday was Jacksonville at the Jets. The Jets miss Kris Jenkins terribly, and their defense is nowhere near as good as it was when he was healthy. They are having to scheme to stop the inside run, and to keep Bart Scott and David Harris clean, and these things used to just happen. I expect New England to blow them out this coming week.

m. I can see why people like Mark Sanchez, but I continue not to be a fan. He's well-coached, and he has excellent fundamentals. I just think he's very limited as a natural thrower of the ball. I consider him to be a poor man's Matt Ryan, which is another way of calling him a middle class man's Chad Pennington.

Sanchez plays in a windy place, which I have noted before, and that's going to always be an issue. Another issue is that the offensive scheme he is playing in is very vertical, and Sanchez is a poster boy for the West Coast Offense. Rex Ryan inherited Brian Schottenheimer as offensive coordinator, but I don't think Schottenheimer and Sanchez are a very good match. I have to wonder if the Jets don't make a change in the offseason, to bring in somebody to make the passing game's design more horizontal. Mike Shanahan could do wonders with Sanchez, although he won't be going to New York.

Really, as I think about it, if Sanchez and Jason Campbell could trade offensive coaching staffs, they'd probably both be much better off. Two owners traded teams once; why couldn't this happen?

n. There was a crazy sequence in the third quarter, where Sanchez threw an interception to Quentin Groves, then Maurice Jones-Drew fumbled at the goal line, and then Braylon Edwards fumbled at the end of a 41-yard catch. It was a whole lot of ugly going on at once, like the perennially sloppy tendencies of the Jaguars were rubbing off on the Jets.

o. Torry Holt was a great player for many years, despite playing for some obscure St. Louis teams. Really, you could make a case that he was a better player than a few Hall of Famers. (How about Art Monk, Steve Largent, and Lynn Swann to name a few?) I would go so far as to say that he was better than any WR the Broncos have had in my lifetime, a little ahead of Rod Smith.

My point in giving Holt credit, is that I have to say that I think he is getting pretty close to the end of the line. He has really struggled to get any separation, in the times I have watched him this season. He had two strong games, against St. Louis (bad defense) and Seattle (garbage time in a 41-0 game), but I haven't been impressed with his recent work.

p. I loved the call by the Jaguars to have Jones-Drew take a knee and run the clock out. His apology to his fantasy owners made me cringe, though. I may be 7-3 in the official MHR league, but fantasy football is at odds with my beliefs about football, and I have a hard time reconciling the two things.

q. I couldn't talk myself into watching the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh game. Sorry, I know it was a key game, but a game with zero offensive touchdowns offends my sensibilities. (Just in case you were wondering why I had nothing on this game.) I'm sure it was ugly, and I feel fine, personally, having seen the highlights. When I walk into a smelly restroom, I get out as quick as possible. No need to hang around for half an hour, to have a good idea what happened there.

r. Jake Delhomme had a dangerously solid game on Sunday. It was the type of fool's gold performance that makes the regime think they are okay with him as their QB, and really, Jake has been having those games his whole career. The Panthers are suddenly 4-5, and back in the picture for a Wild Card spot, but I really believe that they need a better QB if they ever want to really compete for a championship.

s. Matt Ryan struggled mightily again on Sunday, and his two interceptions were a lot of the reason the Falcons lost the game. His first INT, in the second quarter, led to a TD which set the Falcons behind 21-10. The one he threw in the 4th quarter was converted 3 plays later into the TD which put the game away for Carolina.

Don't get me wrong; Ryan is mostly a good QB, but he has definite limitations, which I have highlighted in the past. He really struggles to beat tight coverage, and he's seen a lot of it lately.

t. Speaking of Hall of Fame-caliber guys who look washed up, old friend Jason Elam seems to have really lost his fastball. He's now 9 for 14, and he's only 3 for 6 between 30 and 39 yards. I would be surprised if he kicks after this season.

u. I always thought Beanie Wells was soft when he was at Ohio State, and he didn't do a lot early this season to change my mind. Lately, though, he's shown a lot better, and he's a big reason why the Cardinals are 6-3, and squarely in control of the NFC West. I've also been more impressed with the play of RT Levi Brown than ever before. He's been blowing some people off the ball in the running game.

v. The Chargers have been really tough in the scoring area lately. Of course, the Eagles helped them out by not even trying to run the ball down there. You have to make the defense think that they have to defend everything, or else they are at a distinct advantage. Only getting field goals of 18, 25, and 25 yards on visits deep into San Diego territory was the difference in that game. A defense can get shredded, as the Chargers did, and if they toughen up in the scoring area, they make up for it. A lot of Donovan McNabb's 450 yards were low-quality.

w. The Chargers sure are paying Darren Sproles a lot of money not to participate very much on offense. He's a lot like Reggie Bush, in being a highly-paid decoy who is never going to be much more than what he is.

x. Hey, Adam Schefter. From a money guy, "large" means thousand. When you say "two hundred fifty thousand large," that means $250 Million. He said that on Monday Night Countdown (Served by Applebee's... really). People misspeak all the time; I just wanted to make sure he knows what "large" means. This is coming from a helpful place.

y. I have to hand it to the Browns. They played really well on defense Monday night. Their offense is just so terrible, that it's no use. Those defensive players are playing for jobs next year, whether it be in Cleveland under a new regime, or elsewhere. Guys who show some pride and effort on bad teams will have some good film for their agents to shop them with. Guys who pack it in will be out of the league, like so many guys who played defense in Denver last season.

z. I actually like to listen to MNF nowadays, as I finish ST&NO every week. The main reason is that I actually think that both Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden are value-adding to listen to. The guys at Mickey Mouse-land spent so many years looking for a good third man, with such horrible results, and they've finally found a good 3-man booth. I actually don't like Mike Tirico, who is good at basketball, but bad at football play-by-play (much like Joe Buck is great with baseball, and abysmal with football).

5. I know the Bengals have always been willing to take on troubled players, but it's hard to imagine what they are thinking in reportedly bringing in Larry Johnson. As LJ was to be the key RB on the Shallow Thoughts team in the official MHR Fantasy League, I can tell you that his performance has been garbage this season. Some of his bad performance can certainly be attributed to bad offensive line play in Kansas City, but Johnson is clearly lacking quickness to the hole, and the leg drive he had in his prime. I just don't see what value the Bengals are going to get out of him.

I've reached midnight, and unfortunately, I need to call it a night. My company is in the process of being acquired, which has caused me to be much busier than normal at this time of the month, and I have an early morning meeting Tuesday. I hope you enjoy this edition of ST&NO, and have a great week. I'll see you all again next Tuesday, hopefully with time to give you my normal output.

MHR Chalk Talk - Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos MNF ('09, wk 8)

Steve Nichols — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:57:29 -0000

Folks, this is the game I've been waiting for all season. There is an awful lot to look at between these two teams, and from a purely Xs and Os standpoint, this game should be a feast for football lovers.

The Steelers are the defending SB champions. Their young coach had to start under the shadow of a big name. This is a team that has excellent players in just about every facet of the game, and they are used very well by the coach.

The Broncos have emerged from a few years wandering the wilderness, and have a near perfect record. Their young coach had to start out in the shadow of a big name. Excellent players? Check. Great coaching? Check.

And this game will be on Monday night. Does it get any better?

Read on....

Offensive Postion Analysis

I'm going to break this week down a little differently than what we're used to. Let's start with my comparison of the teams' units.

QB - PIT

Let's face it; Kyle Orton is for real. His 95.5 rating is due in big part to a lack of INTs. In 7 games, he has 1 INT thrown on a "hail Mary" pass to close out a half. Orton makes his living in Denver by throwing screens, hitches, and curls. He is willing to throw the ball away or to take a sack rather than throw an INT. This looks ugly to many fans, but it demonstrates a style of play that isn't what Denver fans are used to. Gone are the "gamble and scramble" days. Orton doesn't gamble; he picks his targets or throws off. Boring? Yes. Effective? It wins games.

But "Big Ben" is an established QB, with a lot of good football behind (and ahead) of him. He does it all. Ben Roethlisberger can throw and run, and has experience up to and including the Super Bowl. His rating is 102.6

Ben gets that rating by completing his passes. Where Orton is at a career best 63.6 completion percentage, Big Ben is at 70.4. Both QBs are good at what they do, and Orton has been terribly underrated. But I have to give Ben the advantage here.

WR - tie

Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward are two big names in the NFL football ranks. While the Steelers have always been a tough, smash mouth team, they are airing out the ball this year. Holmes and Ward have been a big part of the 5-2 start. Both players are not only key in the pass game, but can get physical and run block as well. These guys present a solid 1-2 punch.

Denver isn't lacking either. Brandon Marshall has estabalished himself as a real star this year. Changing his mind on being a hold out, and (it is to be hoped) having put the off field issues behind him, Marshall has proven that he is a physical receiver who can run you over. Against the Cowboys though, he proved he can zig and zag through a defense too. Opposite Marshall is Eddie Royal, who garnered 2 returns for TDs in a game. A legit #1 receiver, Royal has speed and cuts that make him a deadly threat if he catches the ball in full stride. Denver's hidden strength is depth at WR, with route specialist Jabar Gaffney and smart / physical Brandon Stokley equaly deadly at the slot position.

TE - DEN

This is a tougher call than many Denver fans might think. Obviously, Daniel Graham is a monster blocker with good hands, and Tony Scheffler is a receiver in a TEs tough body. And yes, Richard Quinn is a tough blocking rookie. Yes, I'll take Denver. But don't be fooled, because Pittsburgh is loaded too.

Heath Miller is an excellent TE, as is Matt Spaeth. David Johnson can be brought in for a 3-TE look, and (in fact) I would call PITT one of three teams capable of playing 3 TE sets on a consistent basis this year if they wanted to. (DEN and NE are the other two, based on history with the formation and other factors).

I give Denver a slight edge here.

RB - DEN

You have to love Correll Buckhalter. Anyone who averages 6 yards per carry this far into the season is a keeper. His 18 receptions aren't shabby either. Rookie Knowshon Moreno has been getting his feet wet, and owns a 3.9 average.

Rashard Mendenhall is a power running back who has better speed and elusiveness than most power runners. His 5.4 average is very, very good. PIT could run the ball a lot more with this kid if they wanted to. The only criticism I've heard is that he can fumble the ball. He has two fumbles (both for losses) this year, but that's better than Moreno (3 fumbles - all lost) and tied with Buckhalter (also two fumbles, but lost one).

OL - DEN

The most notable issue for Denver is the loss of RT Ryan Harris. One of the best RTs in the League, he'll be missed this week. While I think Tyler Polumbus can hold his own against most teams, I respect the Steeler's defense, and TE Daniel Graham will likely need to be limited to Pass blocking duty to offset the loss.

Denver's other strength is LT Ryan Clady, who is arguably one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL today, and still young. And while Ben Hamilton and Chris Kuper are both very good at what they do, Center Casey Wiegmann is the real anchor in the middle of the OL.

Denver's only weakness on the OL is the lack of power for short yardage. Denver seems to be asking the athletic and agile lineman to assist with power runs up the gut, something they aren't built for. As the season has worn on, Denver has gotten further from their zone blocking tradition. For what it is worth (and in the eyes of Denver's coaching staff, it isn't going to be worth anything), I think Denver needs to get back to the ZB. If Denver wants to transition into a typical run blocking scheme, then they should at least play to the current strength of the OL players. The ZB is always run as a short yardage play, with the very real possibilty that it will break open. Right now, we don't have the bodies to support dives and slams.

On the other hand, if PIT has a weakness, I think it is the OL. Big Ben has been sacked 20 times this year, and faces a terrific pass rush from Denver. I think the OL is improving, but they have a ways to go.

Offensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 23.9 (14th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 383 (6th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 276 (5th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 107 (19th)

Folks, we need to wake up and smell the coffee. We are not in the top ten in any single offensive category I've listed. There is no room for Orton bashing. It is clear that Orton is doing his job, and doing it well. A QB rating in the 90s means a good QB, and we've seen what our receivers can do. We are also over 100 yards per game rushing, which is the classic standard. But we have some things to address, and we need to move fast.

First, we need to fix our short yardage issues in the running game. Next, we need to start getting TDs. A 6-1 record is a good thing, and each of our players are doing a good job. But if we are going to make the playoffs, we will need to be able to put up more points.

I wrote in last weeks article that Denver is NOT a shoot out team. We have come back from poor 1st halfs all year, but we can't rack up points if the opposing team decides to make the game high tempo. It was a major key for Baltimore last week, and they executed. Like NE, Denver likes to accumulate small advantages and chip away at the other team, winning close if neccassary. But Denver needs to be more like NE in another respect; Denver needs to be able to run up scores when needed.

At this point in the season, Denver has a cushion to find out what the problems are (6-1). But we'll need to see some adjustments quickly. Coach McDaniels has proven that he can make adjustments during half time. Now we need to see if he can make adjustments over the course of a season, which is a completely different skill set for a coach.

PITT has the better QB, and the better passing game. PITT's only concern is the OL, but that is a big concern. I think PITT's running game could be better if they committed to the run, but they haven't needed to. If we were comparing offenses, I would give the advatage to PITT. They beat us in everything except running the ball. But folks, we don't compare the same units (off vs off). We compare offenses to defenses. Before we do that, let's look at the defenses so that we'll know what to compare.

Defensive Position Analysis

We have two great defenses lining up this week, and this is a real treat for fans of defense. I love the Iron Curtain almost as much as I love the Orange Crush. This year, both units are in elite form.

DL - PITT

Just how good is the PITT DL? Consider this. Aaron Smith goes down for the season. Losing a starting DE is a rough thing to deal with. Then his back-up goes down for this week (Travis Kirschke). Does PITT panic? Not at all. Ziggy Hood and Nick Eason step into the gap without missing a beat. Like Denver, PITT is ok with rotations on the line, and they have depth.

Denver (on the other hand) may not see Ryan McBean at LDE this week (LDG if you consider the DEnver defense to be a true 5-2). This is a bigger problem for Denver. Denver rotates the line too, but I wouldn't yet put the defensive line in PITT's league. I'm not saying that the Denver DL isn't good by any stretch. I'm just saying that we are great, but PITT is excellent.

OLBs - DEN

I don't care if we call them DEs or OLBs, but Denver is stacked at the position and can rotate all day long.

One guy to keep in place is Elvis Dumervil. With 10 sacks for the season, you can bet that PITT is scheming to stop him. Playing at RDE (ROLB), Doom is a sack master who uses his low center of gravity and long wingspan to out-judo his opponents in the bull rush, and uses speed and agility to get around blockers when rushed wide.

Denver can sprinkle in Mario Haggan, Darrell Reid, and Robert Ayers to stay fresh. (Watch for PITT to counter with the no-huddle. More on this later).

At ILB, Denver has Andra Davis, who has been rejuventated playing in Denver. Davis uses strength and leverage to get his way. To his right, D.J. Williams continues to be the anchor for the LBs. His skill set is based more on speed and agility, but he is as tough as nails and not a light LB. Even back-ups Spencer Larsen and Wesley Woodyard are dangerous when put on the field.

PITT also has an excellent LB corps. There is some concern about whether Lawrence Timmons (RILB) will be able to play on Monday. I expect him to show up, and to play 100%. Like talking about the DL, I may sound like I'm putting down a unit because I pick the other. Not so. Both teams have great DLs, and I gave the edge to PITT. Both teams have great LBs, but I'll give the edge to Denver.

CBs - DEN

Some folks will find fault with the PITT CBs. Not me. Ike Taylor is a good CB, and so is William Gay. Both are fundementaly sound, underrated, and a terrific tandem. (Watch Ike for blitzes. He is one of the best blitzing CBs in the League. If he doesn't get to the QB, he still typicaly causes hurry ups. He may be moved between left and right CB as well).

However, they are nothing near Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman. Bailey is going to the Hall of Fame some day, and Goodman is playing better ball in Denver than in Miami. In fact, he's doing it even though he's going to get a lot of throws his way when QBs avoid Bailey.

And while Jack Williams is ill, Denver does fine with rookie Alphonso Smith playing at nickle.

SAF - DEN

Both teams have excellent safeties. Denver has the player that revolutionized the safety position - Weapon X - Brian Dawkins. Older? Yes. Depleted? Not yet. Dawkins is tearing up the field for Denver by being in on most plays and keeping the defense fired up. He is the leadership this defense has been missing. Next to him, Renaldo Hill (like CB Goodman) has come to Denver and is playing better football. Together, these two safeties have been amazing. Their back-ups would be worth writing about, but many are injured (Josh Barett and David Bruton). Rookie Darcel McBath has the potential if he is needed.

But PITT has Troy Polamalu at Safety, and he's a beast. Don't let the shampoo comercials and the soft voice fool you. Troy is one of those safeties that can do it all - hit, tackle, intercept, disrupt, and cover. He is arguably one of the top five (if not number one) safeties in the League, along with Dawkins and Reed. He's coming off of an injury, but expected to play.

The big news this week is Ryan Clark at free safety. Because of a rare blood disorder, Clark should not be playing in Denver's altitude. My heart goes out to the guy, as there is talk he may not even be allowed to make the trip.

STs - DEN

You didn't think I'd give STs their own section did you? Of course not.

Ok, there may be reason to worry about Prater. Read more from MHR member OrangeandBlue27 here. And we just switched out punters, didn't we? But PITT has the kick and punt coverage that Denver must have had last year. PITT has given up 3 TD on STs in the last 3 weeks. Royal has been know to get two TDs on returns in one game.

Defensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 13.7 (2nd) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 266.7 (1st) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 180.6 (8th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 86.1 (3rd) 76.6 (1st)

I'm hearing a lot about the almighty Steelers defense this week. Let's give credit where credit is due. Pittsburgh has a great defense. But Denver beats Pittsburgh in every category but one, where Denver still manages a third best in the League ranking. Another stat to throw in - Denver allows 1/3 of opposing 3rd down conversions (33.3%), while PITT is allowing 43.3%.

In sum, both teams should stop the run this game. That much is clear. But how do the units match against there opposite numbers? What about the systems, the plays, and the head to head match ups?

~~~

Pre-Game Analysis

Strategic

Denver is 6-1. SIX AND ONE! They are at home on a Monday night, and except for one key injury, are all on the field. Pittsburgh is 5-2, including a close loss to CIN (a team Denver beat) and CHI. Both loses were close, so PITT is pretty darned close to being unbeaten themselves. I'll grant that. But 6 and 1 is nothing to sneeze at. Unless you are a sports writer (more on that in a moment). PITT may be missing some players, and others are coming off of injuries. Still, PITT had a bye week to rest and prepare.

I love the media. I really do (not). Some of my favorite things I've read this week include a ridiculous story about how accurate those Vegas guys are, knowing to pick against an undefeated Denver team and to go with Baltimore. Nice. Don't bother mentioning that Denver is 6-1, despite Vegas being wrong in six of those games (Denver was only favored one time). Another article (I won't mention John Clayton by name) buys into the mantra that Orton has a weak arm. Yet another claims that the Ravens and the Steelers have similar defenses. They're both physical, and both play a lot of 3-4, but the Ravens have been playing the 2 gap Fairbanks-Bullough system, while the Steelers have been playing the Lebeau Zone Blitz.

The minute Denver loses "one" game, the doubters came out (as predicted by many at MHR). All of a sudden, we are a team preparing to enter a death spiral. All of a sudden, we're not as good as we thought we were.

As of today, factoring in tie breaks, Denver is the number two team behind unbeaten Indianapolis in the AFC. In the NFL, Denver ranks as the fourth best team (Saints and Vikings are 2nd and 3rd).

Not enough for you? Denver has beaten the 5th, 6th, and 7th best teams in the NFL (CIN, DAL, and NE). One game is not the end of this team. In fact, a loss at this point in the season (while not prefered) gives the team better film to study. There isn't as much to find on film from a win, but a loss provides much room for analysis and growth for a good team. Rather the loss now than in the playoffs.

Let's not sell PITT short. As I mentioned earlier, their only two losses were close ones, and this team has star power.

But certainly don't sell Denver short. Denver has a 6-1 record against teams with an average winning percentage of .510 (opposing teams combined for 26-25 record). That beats PITT's opponents, who have a losing average. Those opponents are at .451 (a combined 23-28). More amazing is to factor in that Denver's opponents have a better record than PITT's, despite the fact that each of Denver's opponents had to play "Denver", who gave 6/7ths of those teams a loss (compared to PITT, who handed out losses to 5/7ths).

In other words, we have two very, very good teams on the field. A lot of folks are nervous because Denver has lost one game. But over the course of this season, Denver has played better ball and has a better record and stats to show for it.

Let's revisit the comparisons between rankings, but look at offensive vs defensive match-ups.

Denver Offense PITT Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 76.6 (1st)

On offense, we see that PITT beats us relatively in every category but one (the pass game), where we rank even. Now let's look at how PITT does on offense.

PITT Offense Denver Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 23.9 (14th) 13.7 (2nd)

Yards avg per game - 383 (6th) 266.7 (1st)

Pass avg per game - 276 (5th) 180.6 (8th)

Rush avg per game - 107 (19th) 86.1 (3rd)

Here, we beat PITT in every category but one. Again, it is the pass game that is different. Here PITT beats us. So relative to how each team has played so far (as measured in rankings), DEN wins in 6 stats, PITT wins in 7, and the teams tie in another.

The margin in the difference in rankings over all favor PITT by 29 "ranking points" when we have the ball, and favor Denver by 20 When PITT has the ball. On the other hand, Denver's defense is 32 points better than PITT's defense, while PITT's Offense is only 17 pts better than Denver's.

The key is the actual points on the score board at the end of the game, and this is where efficieny comes in. Remember the stat I mentioned about third down conversions? It comes into play when we look at teams moving the ball down the field. Even though PITT averages about two more minutes in time of possession, Denver runs the ball better, even though both teams are near each other in terms of rushing defense. While PITT is likely to stop Denver on the ground, they'll have a harder time stopping the Denver running game relative to Denver stopping PITT's 19th ranked run game. The pass offenses and defenses are very close for both teams, and is a wash.

Tactical

I see three approaches for the Steelers on offense this week.

No huddle scheme
Run heavy scheme
Passing attack

Those are over-simplifications, but they'll make the points easier to understand.

First, the no huddle looks good on paper. Every one from Clayton to Big Ben are advocating it for this week. I see some problems with this approach. First, this game isn't in Baltimore, it is in the Mile High city. Assuming that Denver is conditioned to the altitude (metabolic levels, etc), does PITT really want to level the playing field between the defense and offense in terms of endurance? The way to beat a defense at altitude is to win time of possession by keeping the defense on the field. You do that with no-huddle, but the higher tempo leads to a change of possesion quicker (whether from a turnover, score, or inability to convert a down). Why not just keep the ball, and move down the field consistently? Besides, Denver has almost certainly devoted a lot of practice hours to adjusting for the no huddle in light of last week's game.

The second approach is to run the ball more. I this approach much more. PITT hasn't been winning games on the ground, they've done it in the air. Folks might argue that the low ranking in average run yards is because of a lack of commitment to the run, and this is true. But against the third best run defense in the League, why not give the ball to your star QB, or at least strike a balance?

The passing attack may be the way to go. The best players on the offense are arguably at QB and WR, and this has been working for PITT. The question is, can the OL protect Ben? Denver has a great sack scheme, and PITT'S OL isn't the best right now. Ben can take hits, and can throw on the run. He's a big, fast player in the mold of an Elway.

For Denver, they need to throw the ball. The run has been under utiized by PITT, but despite Denver's decent individual stats, Denver just isn't tearing teams apart with the run game. Together, the run and the pass have moved the ball down the field for Denver, but not created a lot of points in quick strikes. This will beat most teams, but won't win shoot outs. In fact, if Denver hope to beat INDY in Dec, they had better learn how to put up points on every long drive OR put up points quickly on most drives.

In a surprise twist, I wonder if McDaniels feels that Orton can handle a no huddle or two? This would be the game to bring it out. You can beat a physical defense at altitude with a good no huddle.

Denver needs to keep their TEs in to block this game. PITT's zone blitz is formidable, and two TEs are the standard counter to a 3-4. Graham (TE) in particular will be needed to assist the right side of the line in pass blocking with the Harris missing at RT. I don't expect many passes to TEs in this game. If Orton uses a safety valve, it will likely be a running back.

Expect bump and run from the Steeler CBs, but coverage to be over the top. Expect the safeties of PITT to play the pass more than the run in deep zone. LBs and DLs will take turns in zones and rushing the passer in the typical zone blitz manner. I expect the PITT defense to do a good job shutting down the run.

Expect the Denver defense to play off or on coverage, but not tight. The Denver CBs will play underneath in most match-ups. While one Denver ILB zones the middle, mans the RB, or blitzes, the other ILB will take one of the other two assignments. The OLBs (DEs) will rush or zone.

PITT will vary their offense, presenting 2 TE sets, I forms, and 3 receiver sets. I don't expect Denver to use a FB, so expect 2 TE or 3 WR sets.

Keys to the Game

Denver

Denver lost last week when they let the Ravens get after Orton. Denver's OL must hold.
Denver lost last week when they let the game turn into a shoot out. They probably can't run against the Ravens very well, but too many passes may lead to a shoot out. Denver needs to complete a lot of intermediate and short passes, get into a rhythm, and move the ball consistently and slowly (this will also tire the PITT defense).
Ben is a terrific QB. But he makes mistakes. If the pass rush can reach Ben (and it should against the Steeler's OL), an elite secondary has the chance to make key INTs. Rush Ben, and don't drop those INTs.

PITT

Win time of possesion. If you want to win in the altitude (something PITT hasn't done much of), you need to keep your defense off of the field. Try the no-huddle if you want to, but keep the oxygen handy for your guys on both sides of the ball.
Challenge with the run game. If Mendenhall can match his terrific YPC average, run down the Broncos. At worst, it doesn't work and you still have a great passing game. But try the run out.
Don't kick to Royal. You're better off kicking out of bounds on punts.

This game could go either way. For every stat that favors one team, another stat counters it. PITT is a more physical team, and a more balanced team. Denver has the better defense. Perhaps the Baltimore game has helped to prepare Denver for the Steelers.

This will be a great Monday Night Football encounter. I like Denver at home, with the better record against a tougher schedule in the first 8 weeks (7 games). For that reason, I don't understand PITT getting 3 points in Vegas. Still, PITT is no joke, and I'm not fully confident with picking Denver. The reason? While we have a SB caliber defense, our offense is "just" doing well. It needs to play much better than that if we are going to beat the many types of teams we'll be playing this year. We rank in the bottom half of the League in passing yards per game and points. The points stat really stands out.

Good teams lose ball games, but they lose close (as PITT has). Yes, we had one loss, but it wasn't close. An inability to dominate is the problem. Good teams "find a way to win". That's what we've been doing. Great teams dominate, and we have yet to do that.

This week, I'm confident that the Steelers come in with a good game plan and players ready to execute. I know the Denver players will be fired up (or Dawkins will be kicking butts in the locker room). What I'm looking forward to seeing is how McDaniels adjusts to a loss. I've already bought in to the McDaniels way, and I'm hoping that he's on top of this aspect of coaching too.

Denver wins (fingers crossed and nervous as Hell).

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Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:30:25 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

about 1 month ago: Baltimore Ravens cornerback Lardarius Webb, left, carries the ball for a touchdown as Denver Broncos safety David Bruton pursues during the third quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2009, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

Browse more photos »

Happy Tuesday, friends, if you can manage one. Welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Well, this was bound to happen, right? Since Sunday afternoon, I have been thinking about what the right tone is to take with this week's ST&NO. I still haven't decided, and it's Monday at 5 PM as I write this paragraph. I guess I am just going to go with it, and play it like it feels. We had an ugly loss, and to top it off, there were only 4 late games, and no Sunday night game, so I didn't see a lot of live football, at all. We'll make do, because that's all we can do. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire y'all. Ready.... BEGIN!!!!

1. The two plays which set the tone for yesterday's game happened at the beginning of each half. On the Broncos' first play from scrimmage, Jarret Johnson came in untouched and unrecognized off the defense's left side, and creamed Kyle Orton for a big loss. As I watched the play happen, I couldn't help but think that the Broncos may not be well-prepared if they weren't expecting a lot of blitzing.

As the second half got underway, Lardarius Webb took the opening kickoff back 95 yards for a TD. That took a manageable 6-0 halftime deficit to 13-0, and essentially dictated that the Broncos start playing come-from-behind football. You see the picture of this play, and I used it because it sticks in my craw (whatever a craw is), and I want it stick in yours, too. I guarantee it bothers the coaches and players. You can't have that happen and expect to win.

The final score, 30-7, sounds like a blowout, but this game wasn't really that. This game swung on field position, and third-down performance, which was directly driven by down-and-distance situations. The Ravens made key plays on 3rd down, and the Broncos missed opportunities to make those plays.

There's an offensive concept called staying on schedule, and it means that from first and 10, you get to 2nd and 6, and then to 3rd and 2. All your down-and-distance situations are manageable if you stay on schedule. It's a really good thing to do every game, but it's absolutely imperative against a team like Baltimore, which can bring a bunch of overload pressure and force a QB to either throw way short of the first down or eat the ball.

Actually, the Broncos did a great job throughout the game with first-down defense, and getting Baltimore off schedule themselves. The Ravens, though, led by Joe Flacco, made enough plays to negate those early-down advantages.

The world didn't end, and all we can hope is that some lessons are learned from the experience by the players and coaches, and that those lessons are applied to future situations. Sometimes a loss is a growth opportunity, and I think that there is a solid reson to think that this loss was one of those.

2. Information From My Eyes. Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens:

a. I thought Mitch Berger was awul on Sunday, despite Josh McDaniels' charitable comments about his performance. Hang time is fine, but I want changes in field position. The Broncos lost the field position game the whole first half, in large part because of bad punting.

b. I disliked the offensive game plan and the play calling. The 3rd-and-5 sweep for Correll Buckhalter on the second series is an example. I thought there were too many screens against a team which clearly came to stop the screen. I wanted to see more use of Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal agains the Baltimore CBs, and I am perplexed as to why we didn't get more of that.

c. I was really pleased with the way that Mario Haggan was consistently setting the edge in this game. He has a physical style of play which is perfect for the position he plays. It's pretty shocking that he was basically a special teamer only in Buffalo, because he's a top-notch 3-4 OLB.

d. I don't blame Knowshon Moreno very much for the fumble (this time). That play was doomed from the start, with Jarret Johnson forcing a high throw and tough catch, and Moreno turning right into a thumping from Ed Reed.

e. Andra Davis is playing at a Pro Bowl level this season, when he is on the field. He plays downhill all the time and has a great sense of timing with the snap count. The great thing about him is that he seems to be cool with coming off the field on 3rd downs, and letting Wesley Woodyard play the long-yardage situations, which Woodyard's much better suited for.

f. There was a lot of dancing by Brandon Marshall on his four catches. I'd like to see him get upfield quicker after the catch. I'd also like to see him use his physicality to get open on some downfield stuff.

g. I was tired by 10:30 Monday night, when I re-watched this game, so I didn't tally anything, but anecdotally, the screen game was a complete disaster on offense for the Broncos.

h. Kyle Orton had two easy interceptions dropped in this game. One was on a play where he got crushed and the ball came out weakly, and the other was a terrible decision, with Jarret Johnson sitting in an underneath zone, and Dawan Landry right behind him. Orton needs to play better than he did Sunday, like the rest of the offense.

i. With the score 16-7 early in the 4th quarter, the Broncos had Baltimore in a 3rd and 12 near midfield. On consecutive plays, Elvis Dumervil and Darrell Reid jumped offsides. On the resulting 3rd and 2, Flacco escaped pressure and made a downfield throw to Derrick Mason. This basically ended the game, because soon after, Mason scored to make the score 23-7.

j. Renaldo Hill looked out of position on the aforementioned Mason TD. Andre' Goodman had outside leverage on the play, with good coverage, really, but Hill never got over the top to help him. He may have seen something that kept him in the shallow middle; but it was a bust, clear as day, because Brian Dawkins played the coverage like he had a deep half on the other side. Credit Flacco for seeing the blown coverage and making a perfect throw.

k. From the Ravens' side, I liked their use of the no-huddle stuff, and their attempts to vary tempo. The Broncos substitute very liberally, and are one of the most package-intensive defenses in the NFL. By having to hesitate on substituting at times, they assumed a disadvantaged position against the Ravens. Really, I think that the lack of freshness of some players, who had larger than usual workloads, is a lot of what got them in the 4th quarter.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games:

a. As I mentioned, I didn't see a lot of other live games, since most ran at the same time as the Broncos game. To make up for that, I recorded some Short Cuts Sunday night, and hurried home from Day 1 of month-end close Monday to watch them. I started with the Jets and Dolphins, and my first (Nearsighted) Observation is that the Jets played a dominant game on defense, which surprised me a little. I thought they'd miss Kris Jenkins a lot more than they seemed to, especially with all the Wildcat stuff going on. The Jets held the Dolphins to 104 total yards, 52 each passing and rushing.

b. It's really something to score 30 points with 104 yards of offense. Jason Taylor got a fumble recovery for a TD and Ted Ginn returned two kickoffs. I have highlighted Ginn's lack of suddenness before - but let me tell you, when he gets going, he's as fast as anybody in the NFL. He outran players who had good angles on both TD returns. He may never be a top WR, but he's elite as a kickoff returner.

c. I think Thomas Jones is the most underrated player in the NFL. He started slow in the NFL, largely due to his being drafted by a horrible Arizona Cardinals team, but once he got it going in Tampa Bay, he's been a consistently productive player. He's on pace for 1,400 yards and 14 TDs this season, and is a big part of the Jets' success on offense.

d. The most overrated player has to be Jason Peters, just ahead of Alan Faneca and Flozell Adams. The bloom is mostly off the Faneca and Adams roses, at this point, but Peters still gets a lot of love from the MSM. I have just seen him get beat too many times the last two years, and the jury is in for me. He looks like he'd make a good Right Tackle, but on the left side, he gets beaten constantly by quick pass rushers. Osi Umenyiora owned him several times on Sunday.

e. DeSean Jackson is already a great player, and he's improving. He needs to be played physically, because if you let him run free through a defense, he's going to shred you. He's not really a true number-one receiver, who's going to defeat double coverage, but he's a dynamic outside guy.

f. The Eagles have a pretty fearsome passing game, when their line isn't getting Donovan McNabb sacked. Jeremy Maclin is having a solid rookie year, but I'm especially impressed with Brent Celek, who does a great job of catching the ball in traffic. He's now on pace for over 1,000 receiving yards this season. Celek isn't much of a blocker, really, but he even had a good hold that didn't get called on Sunday, helping spring Leonard Weaver's long TD run.

g. ST&NO favorite Alex Smith had a pretty nice game on Sunday against Indianapolis. He looks really comfortable in the shotgun, and led a great hurry-up TD drive at the end of the first half. For his part, Smith looked good for most of the game. The 49ers offense just repeatedly found ways to take bad penalties or give up sacks, (especially in the second half, after Joe Staley got hurt), which kept stopping the offense. Smith is showing a good rapport with Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree, who looks like the real deal, already, two weeks into his career.

h. Peyton Manning was a little off on Sunday with his deep ball. That happens so infrequently that I thought it was worth highlighting.

i. I still can't figure out why the Colts cut Ed Johnson a couple weeks ago. They're very vulnerable to the inside running game without him. The Colts brass said the release was performance-related, but I don't buy that for a second. Johnson was definitely their best DT.

j. Very interesting news Monday evening that the Chargers had released Chris Chambers. He has been struggling to get the separation he used to get, but waiving him seems like a pretty extreme measure. You can't tell me that he couldn't beat nickel or dime CBs against most teams. I'd be very surprised if he isn't on a new team very quickly.

k. The Raiders had a legitimate shot to drive to a tying TD and 2-point conversion in the final minutes of Sunday's game against the Chargers. Then, something completely emblematic of the Raiders happened. Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey lined up on the offense's right side, and both ran vertical routes against man coverage. The inside receiver released outside of the DB covering him, and the outside receiver released inside. They bumped into each other, and both fell down. JaMarcus Russell had nowhere to throw the ball and got sacked, despite a 7-step drop and max protection on the play. The game was functionally over at that point.

l. Aaron Rodgers got beaten up mercilessly again on Sunday, particularly early in the game. I actually thought T.J. Lang was generally pretty solid at LT, but Jared Allen still got 3 sacks. He now has 7.5 sacks in 2 games against Green Bay this year, which is like giving him a handicap in the sack race with Elvis Dumervil.

m. I really thought that Arizona had gotten their act together, but they got hammered by Carolina on Sunday. They went into the game with the number-one run defense in the NFL, and then got run over by DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. I think it was an aberration, but that remains to be seen.

n. I've never liked Matt Ryan's arm much, and Monday night reinforced that feeling for me. Because the Falcons have a below-average line in pass protection, they max-protect a lot, leaving few receivers in the pattern. If the coverage is tight, as it was Monday, Ryan always seems to struggle to make throws to beat the coverage. He's really not too dissimilar to Kyle Orton in that way, though Orton throws the ball with more velocity. Ryan needs to have a lot of options, where he can pick a guy who is open. For that reason, Atlanta needs to focus on building their offensive line. Sam Baker, particularly, isn't good enough at LT, and would make a better LG. Baker got annihilated by Will Smith throughout Monday night's game.

o. My man Thomas DeCoud was at it again for the Falcons on Monday night. He had a sack that forced a TD in the first quarter. This guy is a big-time young player.

p. Jeff Triplette is the worst referee in the NFL, and it's not even close. He just couldn't figure out the clock on Monday night, and he has no command with the crowd. It always seems like he lets them rattle him. When you're a referee, a sheepish smile is a bad thing. You need to command the stadium, like Ed Hochuli and Mike Carey do. Gene Steratore is a good younger referee, too.

r. Marques Colston is having a fantastic year for the Saints. Prior to this year, I've always thought of him as a fairly-average starting WR who has benfitted from strong QB play, and a friendly system. I really see him winning a lot of one-on-one battles with his physicality now. He was targeted 6 times Monday night, and made 6 catches for 85 yards and a TD. He really battled for the ball on a few of those catches, including the TD.

4. Between The Lines, Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens

a. The Broncos had a very bad day in protection, and there's no way to sugarcoat that. The Ravens blitzed more often than what it seemed the Broncos were prepared for. Ryan Clady got beaten twice, which is twice more than usual, and got Orton hit. He was otherwise his normal self. The rag-doll was Ben Hamilton. I am getting tired of writing that every week, but if he's going to get his butt kicked, I'll keep writing it. Old friend Trevor Pryce destroyed Hamilton all game. Casey Wiegmann had his worst game of the year too, with Kelly Gregg beating him more often than not. I was pleased with Chris Kuper's play against Haloti Ngata, and I thought Tyler Polumbus did a very nice job filling in for Ryan Harris. The Broncos got Orton sacked twice (once by a DB) and pressured many more times than that. The passing game was a clear win for the Ravens defensive line.

b. The running aspect was actually better for the Broncos. They picked up a couple of 3rd and shorts, which was nice for a change, and generally held the line of scrimmage, and got a bit of surge against an excellent group for Baltimore. The only notable running play which was blown up was the 3rd-and-5 sweep. I liked the work of Clady and Kuper, and everybody was actually pretty solid in the running game. The Broncos only ran for 3.5 yards per carry - but against Baltimore, that's pretty solid. This was a draw, but one the Broncos would have been happy with if they'd protected better.

c. The Broncos did a good job pressuring Flacco throughout the game, and were beaten by some great throws and poise. These things happen. Jared Gaither held Elvis Dumervil repeatedly, but he didn't get penalized, so kudos to him, if he likes granola bars. Ben Grubbs and Michael Oher, the two best players on the Baltimore line, had good days, and the two weakest, Matt Birk and Chris Chester, didn't so much. A lot of the Broncos' pressure came from the Back 8, which is typical of them. The Ravens allowed a lot of pressure, but much like Ben Roethlisberger, Flacco showed a really good ability to evade the pressure, and make plays in spite of it.

d. The Broncos defense won big in the running game, until the last 10 minutes of the game, when it seemed like they wore down. The Broncos had 10 tackles for loss, which is the kind of performance that typically wins games. Unfortunately, Flacco's big plays negated a lot of this good work. When you consider it separately though, the Broncos won this battle for most of the game. Notable Broncos were Ronald Fields, Kenny Peterson, and Marcus Thomas. Ryan McBean got some penetration too, and Le Kevin Smith made a good play, also.

e. Overall, you have to give an edge to Baltimore, for how well they pressured Kyle Orton. It was the primary reason the Broncos never got untracked on offense. The Broncos did a more-than-respectable job in the other phases, though.

5. Word broke on Monday that the Browns had fired General Manager George Kokinis. I really can't imagine why they'd want to do that. Reportedly, Randy Lerner is displeased that Kokinis didn't take an active role in speaking to the media and communicating to the outside world. If that's really the problem, then I think it's clear that Lerner doesn't get professional football. During the season, the GM needs to be quiet and let the Head Coach be the voice of the team. This is the way it works everywhere, even a place like Baltimore, where GM Ozzie Newsome is the top football guy in the organization. That's where Kokinis came from.

Here in Cleveland, the Browns organization is really far too worried about public opinion. Remember how the Broncos organization ignored the DP message boards all offseason, and then the booing at the scrimmage? You have to do that, or you'll never get going in a coherent direction. I don't know if the Mangini plan is the right one, but it seems that Randy Lerner just canceled it before it even had half a season to work. Rumor has it that Lerner is trying to bring in Ernie Accorsi to join Bernie Kosar as a consultant. As respected as Accorsi is, this sounds like Lerner already blew the situation.

Phil Savage, who is still being paid for the next 3 1/2 years, had some interesting comments this past week. He said that the previous regime left this one with two quarterbacks, and that both of them look ruined at this point. The Browns will almost certainly be in the drafting-a-QB business again this coming spring, and that typically signals another full deep dive into rebuilding. While they're at it, they need a right side of the offensive line, two RBs, a WR, and a TE. Then they can turn their attention to the defense, which is currently solid enough to be part of a .500 team.

The team, led by Lerner, needs to definitively figure out what they want to be. They need to then formulate a plan to become that, and start executing the plan. Most importantly, though, they have to try to clearly articulate that plan to their stakeholders, and then prepare to stick to that plan, no matter what Joe in Berea, or Stanislaus in West Park have to say on the radio. You have to build your program, and winning will follow. As we all know, winning is the great deodorant.

More month-end closing activities are ahead for me this week. It seems like just last week I was closing September and complaining here about how busy I am. Now, it returns. The good news is that I will have a full Sunday of game-watching and channel-flipping next weekend, so expect a more-robust set of games which I'll be commenting on. Have a great week, friends, and remember to visit MileHighReport.com every day, for all your Broncos news and analysis.