SB Nation - Tatum Bell

Whatever happened to parity in the NFL?

JasonB — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 13:00:31 -0000

This year, seemingly more than any other recent year, there's an extraordinary amount of really bad teams in the NFL. I figured we could take a quick look around the NFL at some franchises who are much worse off than us.

Parity Shmarity in the NFL - Inhistoric
There is a huge difference between the best and the worst in the NFL. But is that necessarily a bad thing?

Next Sunday's matchup between the Rams and the Detroit Lions will be one for the history books (no,... - Turf Show Times
Next Sunday's matchup between the Rams and the Detroit Lions will be one for the history books (no, seriously). Both teams have lost 17 of 18 games and 25 of their last 27. And if the Rams go 0-16, and it would make this game the only matchup in NFL history between a team coming off a win-less season and a team on its way to a win-less season.

The Revolution - David Donovan Speaks to Hogs Haven About Ticketgate and State of the Redskins - Hogs Haven
The Redskins appear to be in all out war with their fans. Their COO was a guest on Hogs Haven to try and cool the flames.

Tennessee Titans to Start Vince Young at QB against the Jaguars - Music City Miracles
Titans fans aren't expecting much as their teams turns back to Vince Young...

Parity is over… Thank God |
One of the most annoying things in the NFL over the past few seasons has to have been the word “parity” being loosely thrown around in the vernacular of all NFL analysts and announcers.

Browns fans to protest the ongoing Browns-ness of the Browns - Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
An empty stadium at kickoff would make quite a statement.

Tatum Bell Thinks His UFL Team Would Handily Beat Tampa Bay -- NFL FanHouse
Michael Pittman, a running back for the Tuskers who used to play for the Bucs, said something about how some of his teammates probably thought they could beat the Bucs. Bell immediately said he was one of them.

Chase for Perfection/Imperfection: Week 7 (The Magnificent Seven) - Inhistoric
There are five teams in action this week with a shot at continuing their perfect -- or imperfect -- records. Can all five keep it up?

Horse Tracks 10/30/09 - Fields (limited) returns to practice; Ravens LT Gaither held from practice Thursday

Douglas A. Lee — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 11:58:26 -0000

NYT - N.F.L.’s Influence on Safety at Youth Levels Is Cited - Alan Schwarz

NFL Films - Week 8: Broncos vs. Ravens Preview - Video

NFLN - WK 8: Playbook: Broncos vs. Ravens - Video
Baldinger, Theismann and Sterling look at Ray Rice, BMarsh, Stokes and the Broncos' D versus play-action passes.

DB - Starting the Clock Before Sunday - Zach Eisendrath
"After sitting out practice on Wednesday, Ronald Fields (hamstring) was a limited participant in Thursday’s session. Brian Dawkins (hamstring) was also listed as a limited participant. Spencer Larsen (shoulder) participated in full."

DB - Some Well-Earned Time Off - Gray Caldwell

KDVR - Sources: Broncos RB Darius Walker Cut - Josina Anderson

DPP - Marshall, Orton among the surprises of the Denver Broncos season - Mike Klis

NFL - Don't sell 'em short: Diminutive pass rushers all the rage - Bucky Brooks

NYT - As Offenses Change, So Does Role of Middle Linebacker - Judy Battista

DB - Week 8 - Thu: Bailey - Broncos TV

DPP - Defense priority: keep ball out of Mason's hands - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Safe way winning way for Broncos - Jeff Legwold

DPP - A look at the Broncos remaining schedule - Jeff Legwold

DP - Lots of hitting in Broncos' indoor practice - Lindsay Jones

DP - Kiszla: Dawkins brings "it" factor to defense

DP - McDaniels memorabilia – a collector’s item? - Lindsay Jones
Hmm...where did I read about this before??

CSG - Royal providing happy returns for Broncos - Frank Schwab

CSG - Former Bronco Pryce sack machine for Ravens - Frank Schwab

AP - Brian Dawkins And Ray Lewis Have Emotion In Common - Pat Graham

ESPN - Broncos: Will they go undefeated? - Bill Williamson

ESPN Insider - Broncos-Ravens: 10 observations - Jeremy Green

FOX - What Brett can expect in Green Bay return - John Lynch

FH - Tatum Bell Thinks His UFL Team Would Handily Beat Tampa Bay - Matt Snyder

Ravens News

NFL - Texans, Ravens aren't the only teams chasing contenders - Vic Carucci

ESPN - Ravens at an early crossroads - James Walker

NFP - Wilson: Ravens preparing for Broncos' Brandon Marshall

BS - F. Washington still starting - Edward Lee

BS - Living tall: Grounded in family, Rice shows poise on and off the field - Ken Murray

BS - Ravens Insider: Pagano accepts the blame - Edward Lee

BS - 3 things that need to go right for the Ravens

BS - On the defensive - Jamison Hensley

BS - Ravens Insider

BS - Baltimore Sun staff picks

BS - Remember when: Ravens vs. Broncos, 2003

AFC West News

Y! - Johnson, others have worn out welcome - Charles Robinson

SDUT - Chargers in rush to get running game fixed - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Blitzing, pressure worked for defense against Chiefs - Kevin Acee

KCS - Chiefs, LJ working on a settlement - Kent Babb

KCS - Gay athletes don’t fit in what is perceived as a homophobic NFL - Randy Covitz

SFC - Russell buckles down in wake of Jets debacle - David White

SFC - For all of their efforts, Raiders not tackling - David White

OT - Easy to run against the Raiders - Steve Corkran

OT - Peterson: If Raiders' Russell has the fire, he needs to show it

NFL News

NFL - Young in, Collins out as Titans coach Fisher switches QBs

NFL - Fed up with losing, Browns fans organize protest at Nov. 16 game

NFL - Seahawks LB Tatupu out for season with torn pectoral muscle

NFL - Cracked bone in right foot won't keep Giants RB Bradshaw off field

NFL - Saints sign FB Eckel after losing Evans for season to knee injury

NFL - Ailing WR Johnson returns to practice with Lions

NFL - League says it doesn't have a problem with Redskins' sign ban

NFL Opinion

NFP - Diner morning news: Six NFL bottom dwellers - Mike Lombardi

NFP - Tavern talk: Titans go back to the future - Mike Lombardi

NYT - What Should Packers Fans Do With Their Memories of Favre? - Toni Monkovic

USAT - Favre's return plays like an ugly family divorce for Green Bay - Jim Corbett

NYT - Brett Favre and the Interception Myth - Larry Canale

ESPN - Green Bay Packers GM Ted Thompson forever linked with Brett Favre - Elizabeth Merrill

SN - NFC North showdown will hinge on more than 'feisty' Favre - Dennis Dillon

Y! - Peterson's compassion constantly on display - Jason Cole

FH - Between the Lines: Steelers Offensive Line Has Taken Big Steps - J.J. Cooper

FH - Studious Hakeem Nicks the Early Star of Rookie WR Class - Dan Graziano

CBS - League-leading numbers speak volumes, Schaub doesn't - Pete Prisco

PFW - Offense and defense and the Gremlins - Tom Danyluk

SI - Cedric Benson learned from mistakes in Chicago to thrive in Cincy - Paul Daugherty

SI - Alex Smith gets second chance with San Francisco 49ers - Don Banks

SN - Four slumping contenders need to find their groove — now - Clifton Brown

FH - Sign of the Times: Repressive Redskins - Kevin Blackistone

FOX - NFL Truths: Zorn should embrace bizarre role - Jason Whitlock

NFP - Fixing the mess in Washington - Robert Boland

FH - Peter King on the 12-Year Journey of Monday Morning Quarterback - Michael David Smith

NFP - The Player's Picks: Week 8 - Matt Bowen
"I am sticking with McDaniels and the Broncos until someone shows me they can take them down."

NYT - N.F.L. Week 8 Game Probabilities (Regression to the Mean) - Brian Burke

SI - The Peter King Challenge

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers - A Few Good Questions with John Bena from MileHighReport

Fooch — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 18:30:11 -0000

As some of you might recall from past seasons, we like to do some cross-blogging with our opponents each week. My man The Sports Guru over at Mile High Report is always up for this kind of thing and was already kind enough to answer a lot of your questions via a FanPost. I had a few specific questions of my own that I wanted to pull out and have John answer. Once the season gets here we'll be asking more specific matchup questions, but for now we can ask broader questions we've always wanted answers to (like what's up with Josh McDaniels???). So, thanks to John for taking the time to answer these questions. Also, I answered a few of his questions over at MHR. If you feel like adding in your own two cents head on over.

Fooch:I won't make you rehash the Jay Cutler fiasco. However, I would like to know what you as a knowledgeable Broncos fan, as well as the less intelligent ones (sports talk radio maybe), think about Josh McDaniels in his short but interesting tenure so far as Broncos head coach?

JB: I think there was a knee-jerk reaction to everything that has happened. On the surface, that would make sense, a 33-year old, first time Head Coach, not bowing down to his 25 year old "star" quarterback. I think Cutler/Bus Cook took advantage of McDaniels and the Broncos a bit knowing that fans would react that way. Plan and simple, the guy was coddled by Mike Shanahan. He was made to be the reason everything good happened in Denver and everything negative was the fault of everyone else. When Shanny got fired, Cutler wanted out. There was going to be accountability. I think as time has gone on, especially now that people get to see and hear McDaniels on a daily basis they are beginning to realize what he is about - and that’s winning.

Fooch: Along the same lines, what are your thoughts on Mike Nolan at this point? Even with the whole Nolan v. Alex Smith storyline, it really doesn't mean much the first game of the preseason. Rather, I'm curious what kind of defensive scheme Nolan is instituting and how he has come off to the public?

JB: I have been thoroughly impressed with Nolan as a coach and teacher. The Broncos defense was historically bad, so moving to the 3-4 should be that big of a transition(they can’t get any worse). Watching Nolan work with the defense, especially the linebackers, has been a joy. He is enthusiastic and you get the sense that players really enjoy playing for him. I think his defense is going to be aggressive and tough, something that Broncos haven’t been in recent years. The guy has had success everywhere he has been a coordinator, so I am excited about what he can bring.

Fooch: With a new coach, will we still see something like Mike Shanahan's fantasy killing RBBC, or will the Broncos settle on one guy (such as Knowshon Moreno) going forward?

JB: Perhaps the biggest fault Shanahan had was believing the hype surrounding the Broncos running game. "Anyone can run for 1000 yards in Denver". While the Broncos running game has been dominant, that domination was becoming less and less apparent the past few years. Sure, injuries had something to do with it, but so does talent. Terrell Davis was obviously a steal as a late round pick, but those guys don’t come along very often, if ever again. Shanny tried with Clinton Portis, and failed with Tatum Bell. From then on it was late round, journeymen types that either had injury histories(Selvin Young/Ryan Torain) or just weren’t very good.

McDaniels gets that. Not only has he improved the depth with more known commodities but he drafted Moreno, the best back in the draft. McDaniels knew he could fix everything that was wrong with the defense in one off-season, so he took steps to improve the strength of the team, the offense. Moreno will have every opportunity to be the main ball carrier, but the Broncos will utilize other backs when the opponent calls for it. Much like Kevin Faulk in New England, the Broncos have Peyton Hillis/Correll Buckhalter to make plays out of the backfield, especially on 3rd Down when a running back needs to be able to pass protect.

Fooch: It's hard not to look at Kyle Orton without laughing (not in terms of his football abilities, just the neck beard and pictures like this (http://content.ytmnd.com/content/3/c/9/3c966dacdef985be894c30ae242ddc13.jpg) and this (http://media.photobucket.com/image/kyle%20orton%20jack%20daniels/patroto/ortonmontage.jpg) . However, given the skills of Jay Cutler, how are Broncos fans handling the Kyle Orton/Chris Simms experience?

JB: Fans are apprehensive about it, and for good reason. Cutler has physical tools that only a couple of guys in the NFL have. It does take more than that rocket arm to be successful, however, and the Broncos are banking on more of a team approach. I have focused on the first 7 games of last season when it comes to Orton, simply because it was the first time he was the quarterback through a training camp. He was having a solid year until he got hurt and never really got right. Here are Orton’s stats through those 7 games –

Kyle Orton, 2008 through seven games

1,669 yards
10 touchdowns
4 interceptions (5 games without an interception)
143 completions
230 attempts
62.2 completion percentage
7.26 per attempt
4-3 team record

Meanwhile, Jay Cutler’s were very similar –

Jay Cutler, 2008 through seven games

1,862 yards
13 touchdowns
7 interceptions (2 games without an interception)
163 completions
254 attempts
64.2 completion percentage
7.33 per attempt
4-3 team record

I’m not saying that Kyle Orton has the physical tools Jay Cutler has. Not by a long shot. But I do know, through watching him at Purdue, as well as last season when he wass the starter throughout camp, that he can be successful.

Fooch: As you asked, what will you be paying particular attention to this Friday?

JB: The progress the team is making, especially on offense. The Broncos are not going to scare anyone with their defense so the offense has to be efficient and score points. I’ll be watching to see if the quarterbacks are getting the ball out of their hands quickly and making the right decision. That will tell me whether or not they are getting more comfortable with the offense.

On defense, I’ll be keeping my eye on the Front-7 to see if they are picking up the 3-4. Are the linebackers breaking back into coverage quickly. Is the line gaining leverage and keeping the gaurds from getting to the second level. I’ll be looking for someone on the D-Line to stand out.

Honestly the score means little to me.

Fooch: I liked your other question as well: surprise cut and surprise player that will make the team.

JB: Josh MCDaniels has made it known that every position on the field is up for grabs. The players believe it and this Training Camp has been as competitive as any I have seen. That said, there are areas that the team simply has too many players. I think one of the veteran running backs has to go. Right now, the odd-man out appears to be LaMont Jordan. I know McDaniels likes Jordan, but Peyton Hillis can do a lot of the same things, as can Correll Buckhalter.

As for a player that will make the team, keep an eye on Rulon Davis along the D-line. He’s a former Marine and plays that way. He has great size and will get a lot of reps during the preseason to show what he’s got. Ryan McBean is another.

AFC West Offseason Progress Reports by Position: RB

John (obviousman) — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 14:05:22 -0000

Considering the overwhelming lack of response to the first installment of this series, I considered stopping it altogether. Then I re-read it and liked it. Seriously, what's not to like? Even if you don't agree with all of my opinions, it stands as another reminder of the turmoil this division has faced outside of San Diego. Two of the three teams have new starting quarterbacks that have question-marks attached to them. The other one has a new veteran breathing down his neck for the starting job and a new offensive coordinator. What's not to love as a Chargers fan?

So I'm going to try this again. I hope there's a better response this time as we analyze the backfields of AFC West teams and rate the offseason changes that have (or haven't) been made.

via nicklohr7.files.wordpress.com

San Diego Chargers: Change by addition and possibly by approach. Going into 2008, the consensus was that LaDainian Tomlinson was the #1 back and would return to form after his injury in late 2007. Jacob Hester had been drafted to be his backup and to replace Michael Turner. Well, very quickly we learned that Hester could be an effective player but the coaching staff obviously thought he didn't have what it took to be a backup and Darren Sproles came in to do the job.

Sproles actually wound up outperforming Turner's 2007 performance. Take a look:

	RushAtt	RushYds	RushTDs	RushYPC	Rec	RecYds	RecTDs
Turner (2007)	71	316	1	4.5	4	16	0
Sproles (2008)	61	330	1	5.4	29	342	5

What drop-off? After looking at these numbers, I almost went back on my idea that Sproles should be the 3rd string RB. Actually, that phrase isn't right. I believe the Chargers should have a RB by committee. There's so many reasons for it. One, it'll extend LT's career. Two, LT and Sproles would be healthier and more rested for the playoffs. Three, it gives Gartrell Johnson a chance to grow on the field without much pressure. I could go on and on. Anyways, I almost went back on that after seeing how successful Sproles was last season. I almost said "Ah, the hell with it, give Sproles more carries and keep Gartrell on the bench." Then I remembered last year's running game. It was poor because LT was hurt, true, but the thing that stood out the most was how it lacked versatility. Every time the ball was handed off the defense knew that the RB wanted to go outside. They knew the RB would try and win the battle with speed instead of power and there was nobody on the team to change their mind.

Jacob Hester was drafted to be that power back that gives the offense versatility. It's who he was in college. Although he was small, he was a bit of a bruiser but also had speed and soft hands. Other NFL teams were worried that he wouldn't be able to be a bruiser in the NFL and they may be right (when it comes to his running, anyway). Gartrell Johnson, to me, equals all the reasons I mentioned above. Because of their size, Sproles is just as big a risk as Tomlinson to get worn down and injured. I don't really care if either of those guys see the field in the first 5 games of the season. I want them late in the season and in the playoffs to be at the top of their game. So, what did the Chargers do to their running game over the offseason? They had their FB beef up and created some versatility in the backfield by drafting a power back.

Offseason Grade: B+. My grade at the end of the season will be more telling. I'm still worried that these three guys are not going to be used the right way. I'm concerned we're going to get to Week 17 and Gartrell, with less than 20 carries under his belt, will have to start a game because LT is hurt and Sproles isn't trusted to be a starter. I don't want playoff weeks centered around LT's injuries anymore. I'm hopefuly we're past that and this pick gives me hope, but we'll see...

via i.a.cnn.net

Kansas City Chiefs: Larry Johnson is a bum. There, I said it. My definition of a "bum" when it comes to sports is somebody who is so talented that their team keeps relying on them, even though year after year the guy lets them down. Is it LJ's fault? Well, the off-the-field problems certainly are, but the on-the-field problems may not be.

In 2006, Larry Johnson carried the rock 416 times. That seems like a lot, doesn't it? Well, it's the most amount of carries by one running back in one season in the history of professional football. Some other guys right behind him on that list? Eddie George and Jamal Anderson. Two guys that physically broke down after being overworked. Not only that, LJ turns 30 in November. So his body's working against him already. Since that 2006 season, in which Johnson went to the Pro Bowl and carried the Chiefs to a 9-7 record, Larry has had a hard time staying healthy. Yet, the Chiefs keep looking for him to return to form.

In 2007, Johnson managed to get into 8 games. In 2008, it was 12. Want a picture of how his performance, when healthy, has gone down? Lets look at how efficient he's been over the course of his career.

	RushAtt	RushYPC	TDs	Fumbles
2004	120	4.8	11	0
2005	336	5.2	21	5
2006	416	4.3	19	2
2007	158	3.5	4	1
2008	193	4.5	5	5

Every team wants a guy that can score 20 times and fumble less than 5 times each season, but fumbling as many times as you're getting in the end zone should not make you the centerpiece of an offense. Plain and simple, LJ doesn't have anything left. I'm actually surprised he had those big seasons in 2005 and 2006 considering how he was run into the ground at Penn State, but basically have the first-half of 2004 off probably helped that.

So in 2008 the Chiefs drafted Jamaal Charles. He was effective when he played (5.3 Yards Per Carry), but the coaching staff seemed to prefer Johnson. Going into 2009, LJ is again the starter. He's been a two-time Pro Bowler, a player with off-the-field issues, injury-prone and someone who is not afraid to speak out against his coach to the media. Why is KC still pinning their hopes on him? Because he's a bum, and they're getting suckered in. It happens to the best of us (I'm looking at you, David Boston).

Offseason Grade: D. Okay, so Charles is a year older and wiser. That's the only reason they don't get an F (LJ is another year older as well). Jamaal is also probably a better fit for Haley's offense because he's a great receiver coming out of the backfield. He should be given the starter's role and Johnson should be shopped, but that's not happening this year. Maybe next year. The Chiefs drafted little-known Javarris Williams out of Tennessee State this year, but if he sees the field it'll be as a FB only.

via www2.pictures.gi.zimbio.com

Denver Broncos: Okay, let's see if I can cover it all without my head exploding.

2008 backfield: Michael Pittman, Peyton Hillis, Selvin Young, Tatum Bell, Andre Hall, P.J. Pope, Ryan Torain

Before I get to the 2009 backfield, a crazy statistic. The Broncos didn't have a single running back with more than 76 carries last season. LT can get to that number in 3 games and they didn't have a single guy get to it in an entire season. Peyton Hillis started the most games for them last season, with 6, and even some of those he started as the fullback. What an unbelievable season for the Broncos backfield.

2009 backfield: Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, ~~J.J. Arrington~~, Peyton Hillis, LaMont Jordan, Ryan Torain, Darius Walker

Arrington is crossed out because he was signed by the Broncos and later released, I believe because he failed a physical. Is Moreno an improvement over Pittman? Sure. I could see that. Is Buckhalter better than Selvin Young and Tatum Bell? Hmmmmm. I don't know. I'd say he's about equal, but he's older and a bigger injury risk. If it would've been cheaper I would've stuck with Selvin Young. Torain has potential but will probably never see the field now and I'm unsure why they even grabbed Darius Walker. Four new RBs for a coach that's known for his passing game. Odd, isn't it?

Offseason Grade: C+. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt and assuming that Moreno is good. Not great, but good. I'm a little concerned with a change in the run-blocking philosophy because those guys are too small to do anything else but cut-block. The Jordan and Walker signings just seem like the team is planning for their RBs to start dropping like flies again. This grade is very dependant on how Moreno performs and if Buckhalter can contribute anything without getting injured.

via www1.pictures.gi.zimbio.com

Oakland Raiders: I gave the Raiders a good grade when I was doing the progress reports for QBs and I immediately noticed traffic coming in from Raiders sites and forums. They liked what I said. They said "Even Chargers fans can see that this has been a great offseason for the Raiders!" I want to answer that by saying I do think that the Raiders have had a better offseason than KC and Denver, in terms of players that were brought in, but that doesn't mean I'm picking them for second in the division. Nor do I think they'll beat the Chargers this year. With that being said, get ready for another good grade for the Raiders....

The Raiders have a three-headed running game. Justin Fargas carries the bulk of the load (because he's the most consistent, in terms of performance and health), Darren McFadden is the big play guy who needs to stay fresh and healthy and Michael Bush is a bruiser who can put away games when Oakland has the lead. All three of those guys were good last season and there was no need to replace them. So the Raiders did the smartest thing you could possibly do for a backfield of young, talented running backs. They signed Lorenzo "get behind me for 1000 yards" Neal to be their starting fullback. Then they started filling holes on their offensive line with good free agent players, like Khalif Barnes.

Are you one of those people that think the signing of Lorenzo Neal doesn't mean that much? Let's look at the RBs that Neal has lead to 1,000 yards seasons:

Adrian Murrell
Warrick Dunn
Eddie George (twice)
Corey Dillion (twice)
LaDainian Tomlinson (five times)

...and the only reason he's had any seasons without a 1,000 yard rusher behind him is because he's played for some teams that split carries (like the Raiders). Coming up on 40 years of age, Neal isn't what he once was but he's certainly good enough to improve the Raiders run-blocking. He'll get the most out of those three talented backs.

Offseason Grade: A. Any time you can sign a future Hall of Famer to be in on every running play, that's going to get you a good grade in my book. With signings like Garcia and Neal, the Raiders are trying to add some greatly-needed veteran leadership to the locker room and in film study. I don't know that it'll turn into more than two or three more wins in 2009 from 2008, but it should help all of their young players in the long run. The Chargers used the same philosophy years ago by bringing in players Neal, Roman Oben, Chris Chambers, Marlon McCree and Randall Godfrey.

Fun Facts About 2008 - A 2009 Denver Broncos Draft Analysis

Douglas A. Lee — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 22:30:10 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

For many draft "experts" and Broncos fans, the reaction to Denver's choice of Knowshon Moreno at #12 on Saturday resulted in cries of, "Not another running back!!!!!!"

Browse more photos »

Draftivus Weekend 2009 may be over, but it seems to me that the only draft-related activity as fun as predicting the outcome is in sifting through the results and grading them. Sure, it's a little early to do so; but we all do it, and I'm pretty sure we all seek out what the "experts" have to say in order to validate our own opinions (or cast them aside as idiots). Here are some of the reactions I've seen over the past 24 hours on MHR and across the web, and I paraphrase...

How could the Broncos not draft more D-Linemen or Linebackers?
What?! Another running back?! Denver already signed Arrington, Buckhalter and Jordan in addition to having about 12 holdovers.
More defensive backs? What, are they going to start 9 DBs? How many corners and safeties could the Broncos possibly use?
Josh McDaniels is a moron because he didn't draft the guys I wanted him to!!!

Personally, here is what I thought as the Draft approached...

Obviously, we'll come away with at least a couple of D-Linemen, including a nose tackle.
And of course, we'll end up with an excellent new linebacker.

Obviously, I was wrong. But I'm no expert.

Now, let's examine some undeniable facts...

The 2008 Denver Broncos were 8-8
Denver's so-called "explosive offense" scored 370 points, good for 16th-best in the NFL
They allowed 448 points, which was 3rd-worst in the league
The Broncos' point differential was -78, or 25th-best league-wide.
Seven teams had a worse point differential than Denver, and those seven teams all missed the playoffs, averaging a record of 3-13.
Only one team (Green Bay) with a positive point-differential won fewer than 8 games.
The Broncos lost to Oakland by 21 points (at home) and at Kansas City by 14 points. The Raiders and Chiefs combined for 5 wins against teams not named the Denver Broncos.
Denver lost to the Chiefs, Patriots, Raiders, Panthers and Chargers by an aggregate score of 187-67, which averages out to 37.4 to 13.4.
At various points during the 2008 Season, the Broncos were down to running backs such as P.J. Pope, Cory Boyd, a seventh-rounder in Peyton Hillis, a fifth-rounder in Ryan Torain, and a guy who had been selling mobile phones at the mall (Tatum Bell).
Denver had the 5th-fewest rushing attempts in the NFL.
The Broncos' time-of-possession ranked 24th in the league.
During this same season, the Broncos had folks like Vernon Fox (cut by the Skins), Josh Bell (cut by the Chargers), Josh Barrett (a seventh-rounder), Roderick Rogers (dumped by Minnesota), Calvin Lowry (cast aside by Tennessee), and Herana-Daze Jones (dumped by Cincinnati) either starting or playing crucial roles on the defense.
The Broncos' pass defense allowed opponents to connect on 67.3% of their attempts, which was 4th worst in the league.
The Broncos intercepted 6 passes in 2008, 2nd worst only to the Lions. One of those picks was made by DT Marcus Thomas, who promptly fumbled the ball away on the ensuing "runback."

Recognize this 2008 Bronco? Me neither.

I realize these are some depressing numbers, but this is 2009. I offer the stats above to remind everyone that 2008 wasn't such a hot year for our beloved Broncos. The '08 version of the Broncos couldn't control the clock, couldn't produce sustained drives and couldn't hold onto the ball on offense. On defense, they couldn't rush the passer, stop the run, defend the pass or take the ball away. Injuries left us with guys we practically picked up off the street playing running back, safety and cornerback.

Didn't everyone here learn from 2008 that a team can never have enough running backs and defensive backs? Keep in mind that the veterans Denver signed at those positions this offseason, in Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan, Brian Dawkins, Renaldo Hill and Andre' Goodman will all be at least 30 years old this season. They will hopefully provide skill today, but they will definitely not do so in the distant future.

The 2008 Broncos had a lot of holes; while Atlanta and Miami were both wonderful examples of remarkable one-year turnarounds, their stories are exceptions. This team needs to be competitive first; if they can also win more games than they lose in 2009, I see that as a bonus. We're talking about a team which fired almost its entire coaching staff and enters 2009 with a new starting quarterback. For me, the Broncos were so bad in 2008 that I cannot expect every hole to be filled by 2009. We're talking about a process here, and it sure seems that Josh McDaniels, Brian Xanders and Company are making their way towards that end.

Yesterday, we saw a draft strategy we're to this point unfamiliar with. Yes, Mike Shanahan is an all-time great and brought home two Championships. However, when drafting for need over taking the best player, the Broncos ended up with guys like Marcus Nash, Paul Toviessi, Ashley Lelie (over Ed Reed), Jarvis Moss, Tim Crowder, Deltha O'Neal and Willie Middlebrooks. The new regime quite obviously sees the draft through a different viewpoint, and when their top choices went off the board (Raji and Jackson), they chose Knowshon Moreno. Not because they came in wanting a running back, but because they felt he was the best player on the board. That's how Minnesota got Adrian Peterson, by the way.

How about this guy? If you do recognize him, you'll probably be glad to know that he's no longer on the Broncos...

As I mentioned above, I'm no draft maven; but what I like about the "experts" reactions is this - everyone who criticizes the Broncos' 2009 Draft, from Jamie Dukes, to Pete Prisco, to Mel Kiper, to Todd McShay offers this basic thought - they love the players Denver drafted, they just don't think Denver filled the holes they would have chosen to fill. Personally, when I read draft analysis the day after, I want to see that Denver chose players widely accepted as being excellent football players. Used to be that our draft choices were either "undersized," "injured during senior season," "questionable character," "slow for the position," among other lovely tags. Today, they're "solid citizens" and excellent football players, but why do the Broncos need another defensive back or running back? As for where they'll play, I think we should leave that up to the Broncos' Coach and General Manager.

I'm not trying to provide a sunny outlook here; I'm just examining some facts. Some of you are happy about our '09 Draft results, others are bewildered. Both viewpoints are just fine by me - but don't forget the prism of 2008's season when looking at the makeup of the 2009 Broncos.

Divining the McDaniels Way, Part 4 - Propensities and Conclusions

Emmett Smith — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 17:30:09 -0000

Down/Distance Play Propensities and Conclusions

This series is the outcome of a month-long collaboration between nycbroncosfan and broncobear. In general, NYC covered the stats and Doc handled most of the writing and analysis. We hope that it sheds light on some of the questions that have arisen as to just what, exactly, Josh McDaniels has been doing with the New England offense over the past four years. It also looks at Jay Cutler's time as the primary starter in Denver over the past two years to establish where the Patriots and Broncos do and do not match up. We thoroughly enjoyed working on this project and hope that you will take just as much pleasure in reading it. Hopefully it will answer some of your questions about what to expect of the 2009 Broncos, and we look forward to your comments and critiques. Many thanks to our esteemed colleagues styg50 and hoosierteacher for their input, and to Zappa for his invaluable aid in managing the code and the templates.

Today is our final installment in the series. Previously, we have looked at the rushing and passing games of the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots in order to predict what we might see out of the 2009 Broncos on offense under the tutelage of Josh McDaniels. Now, let's take a look at how each franchise has performed at each down and distance - rush/pass propensity, production and success rates in converting to first downs. Finally, we'll spend a little time on drawing conclusions from all we have seen.

Here are the links to our previous installments:

Part 1 -Overview

Part 2 - The Running Game

Part 3 - The Passing Game

On 1st Down and 6-10 yards

Tendency and Success on 1st & 6-10 - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	Plays	Rush YPA	Rush%	Pass YPA	Pass%	Conversion %
DEN '07-'08	844	4.51	46.0%	7.16	54.0%	23.0%
NE '05-'08	1,754	4.51	48.4%	7.07	51.6%	20.3%

Unfortunately, we could not get statistics for each and every yardage, but it's pretty safe to say that there are very few times you'll see a 1st and 6, and even more rarely a 1st and 8. So, we're generally talking here about what Denver will do on 1st and 10. We've already established that New England has shown a stronger run/pass balance, but here we see how true that is at the beginning of each fresh set of downs.

The Broncos converted more of these 1st and 10 plays into more first downs, which is probably attributable to their heavier reliance on passing plays, which naturally produce a higher yardage per attempt. Oddly, the Broncos and Pats have rushed for the exact same YPA on 1st and 10. It may be just a quirk of statistics, so maybe it's more funny than interesting until you look at the trend in YPA.

On 2nd and short (1 to 5 yards)

Tendency and Success on 2nd & Short - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	Plays	Rush YPA	Rush%	Pass YPA	Pass%	Conversion %
DEN '07-'08	203	5.69	47.3%	4.81	52.7%	53.7%
NE '05-'08	455	4.15	65.5%	7.06	34.5%	58.0%

Here is a remarkable difference. Josh McDaniels has strongly favored running the ball on 2nd and short (65.5% of the time), while the Broncos have shown a slight preference toward throwing the ball from a similar down-and-distance (52.7% pass). Their yards per rush and reception indicate perhaps that teams knew what to expect - Denver gained a lot more on each carry than New England did, but the reverse is true for passes. Yardage aside, New England fared better where it counted - in the first-down conversion rate. It's also important to note that in different games, the Patriots would use different strategies on each down and distance, throwing in one game and rushing in the next. Since we know that Cassel was quick to pull down the ball and run, with 74 carries, that may also have influenced the stats as well.

We'd put this down to a difference in temperament and theory. Bates, in particular, would pass in every option. He used this as a chance to have a 'free play' - thinking that he could get the yards on the next play if needed. McDaniels went the other way, methodically making sure that his offense got the 1st down. While both Doc and NYC lean heavily toward the latter approach, both are legitimate options.

On 2nd and 6, or longer

Tendency and Success on 2nd & Long - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	Plays	Rush YPA	Rush%	Pass YPA	Pass%	Conversion %
DEN '07-'08	457	4.61	34.6%	7.41	65.4%	26.9%
NE '05-'08	959	3.72	35.7%	6.92	64.3%	23.6%

On second-and-long situations, the Broncos have actually been more successful (26.9% success rate) than the Pats in recent years (23.6% conversion). Interestingly, their tendencies are almost identical - their run/pass balances are within 1.1% of each other. However, Denver has both rushed and passed for more yards per attempt on their way to a better first-down conversion rate within this statistic. This can be attributed, at least in great part, to two factors.

The first major factor is in rushing. Denver's much better O-Line, especially as the season progressed, was a huge factor in their running success. Seriously - does anyone believe that Tatum Bell, out of shape and filling in as a last-ditch effort, could have gotten his numbers if the line was still at its early-season level? The line was a big, big key to the Broncos' success as the season went on. Bobby Turner was probably Denver's most valuable factor in getting practice-squad and role players ready, but the line was a close second. To be honest, the backs themselves were a distant third, especially after Hillis went down.

The second major factor was Cutler's arm. That's one area where his strength as a quarterback really made a difference. In the new system, the emphasis that we can expect on the shorter throws will suit the arm strength of Simms or Orton.

If there is a third factor, it may be that Denver passed so much that teams at times seemed off-guard when they ran, and that may have produced some additional yardage and therefore more success on this and on other downs. It certainly shocked us when they ran.

On 3rd and short (1-2 yards)

Tendency and Success on 3rd & Short - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	Plays	Rush YPA	Rush%	Pass YPA	Pass%	Conversion %
DEN '07-'08	86	4.94	60.5%	6.21	39.5%	66.3%
NE '05-'08	178	3.39	65.7%	6.31	34.3%	69.7%

Again, we see a heavier reliance on the run by McDaniels in short-yardage situations, this time on 3rd down. The Patriots also managed a better conversion rate on 3rd and short with McDaniels calling plays despite their lesser YPA. It's a good example of their offensive efficiency. It's also important to note the small sample-size for Denver on these two charts (3rd and short/medium), as we are looking at only two seasons with Jay Cutler at the helm versus four years of Josh McDaniels' play-calling, and one season where the attrition at RB was enormous. Still, there should be enough here to show a trend.

This is yet another area that we can place the blame upon Bates' play-calling. As mentioned above, it is fair to say that the run-blocking wasn't that strong in the first few games of the 2008 season. As the season went on, however, and the O-Line meshed, the running game took off, but Bates inexplicably took it off the menu. It was bizarre.

It doesn't matter what kind of blocking scheme you use. If you don't know, with all your heart, that your O-Line and backs can pick up the yards you need on third and short (and even more so on 4th and short), you have a huge problem. If you have a back like Hillis or Pittman, whether you use him as a fullback or a halfback, and you don't use him driving behind your line to pick up this down, you're going to have serious problems as the season wears on.

On 3rd and medium (3-5 yards)

Tendency and Success on 3rd & Medium - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	Plays	Rush YPA	Rush%	Pass YPA	Pass%	Conversion %
DEN '07-'08	92	4.44	19.6%	4.19	80.4%	42.4%
NE '05-'08	216	3.92	22.7%	4.39	77.3%	45.8%

Once more, we see similar numbers, with a slightly more balanced attack from McDaniels and the Patriots to go along with a better conversion rate. The Patriots' rushing YPA continues to be lower, but they still have better production in terms of effective outcomes - achieving first downs. This is a another good example of the greater level of efficiency of the Patriots' attack under McDaniels.That's a coming change which suits Denver's players and needs. It's also another place where numbers can fool you. Yes, the Broncos had a better YPA with their overall rushing game - but did they use it enough, or at the proper times?

Combining the more appropriate use of the rushing attack with the efficiency of the short pass which New England has been noted for is going to be an exciting change in the Broncos' offense in years to come.

3rd and long (6+ yards)

Tendency and Success on 3rd & Long - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	Plays	Rush YPA	Rush%	Pass YPA	Pass%	Conversion %
DEN '07-'08	222	5.22	10.4%	7.82	89.6%	36.0%
NE '05-'08	468	4.36	16.5%	7.18	83.5%	33.8%

Again still, we see McDaniels calling for running plays far more frequently than the Broncos have in recent years, although in these 3rd-and-long situations this strategy was a bit less successful. This is another indicator of the unpredictable play-calling of the Pats. However, Denver is better in every category - yards per rush, yards per pass and first-down conversion rate.

This is a great example of the amoeba offense. They were constantly unpredictable. It's worth noting that they weren't as successful as the Broncos on this down and distance. However, over the course of the game, being unpredictable has notable advantages.

Here is another area where the arm of Jay Cutler probably made the difference. His 20 turnovers may have cost the team a lot, and he may have certain issues of professional maturity (focusing his eyes to much on his primary target, etc) but his arm, the effectiveness of his O-Line and the skill of the Broncos receivers combined to make the difference in this stat. Denver fans may take heart in remembering that two-thirds of the passing attack is coming back for the 2009 season.

On 4th Down

4th-down Success, DEN '07-'08 & NE '05-'08
	4th Dn M/A	4th Down %
DEN '07	7/22	31.8%
DEN '08	4/10	40.0%
DEN Avg	5.5/16	34.4%
NE '05	13/17	76.5%
NE '06	16/20	80.0%
NE '07	15/21	71.4%
NE '08	17/22	77.3%
NE Avg	15.3/20	76.3%

Aggression and success on 4th down - While Bill Belichick made the decision whether or not to go for it on 4th down, it was Josh McDaniels' play calls that made the Patriots remarkably successful on such attempts. Their 76.3% conversion rate over the past four seasons is nothing short of staggering. David Romer's Cal-Berkeley study on NFL coaches' decisions showed that coaches tend to make the wrong decision on 4th down, lowering their chances of winning by kicking rather than going for it.

The Broncos' sorry success rate is frustrating. They had an offensive line that wore out the superlatives and, for most of the season, a couple of good, big backs in Hillis and Pittman (to a lesser degree). What was the problem? There is no easy answer, but the tendency to pass, pass, pass too often led to fail, fail, fail.

Granted, Belichick has an awful lot of currency in New England and maybe he can afford to take these chances, eschewing the easy three points for the shot at a more decisive touchdown. Josh McDaniels may not have earned that same cachet, but hopefully he's got the guts to go for it when the math is in his favor. Belichick understood this, and he himself read Romer's study. Let's hope that he made it required reading for his entire offensive staff. Of course, sometimes going for it on 4th down is so exciting that the refs start to block.

Conclusions

So, given all of this, what conclusions can we draw? Some are simple, some are not. In a recent interview, McDaniels refused to answer some questions on the running game, saying that it was "secret." We don't know what the secret desire he hinted at with the running game is, but what do we know?

First, we know that McDaniels loves his gap blocking, using a pulling guard. Since we also know that Denver's guards have happy feet and nasty dispositions, that one is elementary. Denver will increase the rate of gap blocking. We'll also continue to see lots of zone blocking, and we love that Dennison and Turner are staying on. The entire offensive line is returning, and that alone is cause for serious joy. If the Broncos have a secret, or not-so-secret weapon, the O-Line is it.

The Running Game

We can expect a few changes on the halfback-side of the running game. McDaniels so far has made extensive use of the draw and of running between the tackles. Will that continue? It remains likely. Since his tackles in New England weren't great blockers, that could still change as he gets comfortable driving the tank that is the Broncos Front Five but only, we believe, in degree. As fine as Denver's tackles are, they will still be running more up the middle more next year. There is a long precedent.

In kenjutsu, the Japanese art of sword fighting, there is a principle - attack the center! It involves using your hara, your own energetic center, and dominating your opponent to the point that anything he does will fail. This principle is related to something called aiki - it is said that when a general who has mastered aiki mounts his horse, the opposing army will surrender. For the Broncos to apply this principle and break the will of the opposing defense, they need to be able to attack the center of that defense, combining a talented O-Line with effective inside running. It's a common principle in attacking the 3-4, which San Diego runs very well and Kansas City is changing to. The Broncos need to be able to run the ball well up the middle. The New England offense mastered that well. The Broncos' line is exceptional and they have the running backs to do so (although one more wouldn't hurt). Look for more runs up the middle this year.

One thing that the current halfback corps should love is that there will be an increased emphasis on passes to the backs. Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan and J.J. Arrington are all skilled here - so are Peyton Hillis and Selvin Young, while Ryan Torain seems to have some potential as well. More on that in a bit. Blocking skills will also be greatly appreciated. Hillis and Arrington, in particular, should benefit from that. All the others have at least some skills there to contribute.

The Injury Game

Will the running game depend upon a committee? Almost certainly. McDaniels made a comment to that effect on his radio interview on 104.3 The Fan. In Doc's opinion, that's a smart decision. Why?

The modern NFL player is bigger, stronger and faster than a decade ago. It wasn't long ago that a 300-pound offensive or defensive lineman was a matter for comment. Now, having one smaller than the 300-mark garners more conversation. In proportion, that extends to nearly every player on the field. That means a lot of young, stronger and faster players. One equation for force is mass times velocity squared (F = M x V²). The increase in mass is one factor. The modern increase in speed is even more of a problem for those on the receiving end of hits.

Modern training techniques (when employed) are producing young men who are stronger and faster at younger ages. The system that moves the best of the best from high school, to college, to the combine and on to the NFL will probably continue. Combined with modern nutrition, this will carry forward to produce the players who hit harder. This portends that injuries will continue to be a constant or rising problem.

Last year, a lot of folks pointed to Adrian Petersen, before the season, as a model of how you could use a back in the traditional system of a single workhorse back. But by the end of the year, he was battered, bruised, exhausted, and his production was lacking. He's as good a back as there is in the game, but he's now working on gaining muscular weight, a belated attempt to put a bigger layer of protection around his body. Drafting him a more skilled change-of-pace back or three would do even more for him. If he isn't platooned, at least in part, his productive career will be shortened.

In San Diego, LaDanian Tomlinson is facing some of the realities of life as a running back. He's spent much of the past two seasons injured, his production is down, and he's just turned thirty. Platooning with Darren Sproles will help, assuming Sproles chooses to sign his tender.

It's a tough game, and it won't get easier. The platooning system is one way of minimizing injuries, maximizing team production and increasing the life-span of your running backs. Doc believes that it's here to stay.

There may have been an over-emphasis on the role that injuries played in the Broncos' 2008 season. When the injury bug hit New England, they responded by bringing BenJarvus Green-Ellis up from the practice squad. In two games, as the primary ball-carrier, he produced 162 yards rushing with 2 touchdowns on 41 carries. In fact, the Patriots' balance actually increased from a 46.1%/53.9% rush/pass split to 75 rushes and 70 passes in those two games (51.7% rush). They responded by tossing the norms aside and rushing the damned ball. Although the Patriots split the two games (losing a heart-breaker in Indy and beating Buffalo), they dominated the clock with an average TOP of 36:02.

The Passing Game

The passing game should see a lot of changes, and we believed that Cutler would benefit from it. Since he's gone, could Simms and Orton also look for better numbers? Almost certainly. Not bigger - better. We felt like the Broncos lost the difference. The Patriots' emphasis on accuracy, consistency and taking what you are given instead of forcing in an effort to get the big play will help them maximize their natural gifts. The use of the running-back pass will also help, placing an emphasis on other check-down receiving options.

Keep in mind that as of right now, the Broncos have kept Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokley and Chad Jackson (for now), added Jabar Gaffney and have Scheffler and Graham as well as lesser luminaries. With the return of the entire offensive line, Denver has kept far more of its passing game then it has lost. The quarterbacks will show different skills, but both are talented young men. Given Coach McDaniels' level of knowledge and skill, it's not difficult to see that the Broncos' offense is in very good shape entering 2009.

Last season, Doc felt that Jeremy Bates had lost his way in the passing game by Week Four, particularly in one area. Do you remember the incredible stutter route with which Royal destroyed DeAngelo Hall in the Monday Night opener? Royal's early double-fake routes? Many of the innovations that thrilled us as fans in the first quarter of the season seemed to get lost as the season progressed. We've put it down to immaturity in coaching. The Broncos didn't make good adjustments and they left pieces that worked in a box, kicked under the bench.

This is another area where McDaniels' background could be a tremendous fit with the current Denver team. His maturity as a play-caller is undeniable. Those who question his professional intelligence need to spend some time with the Patriots' 2007 offensive stats. Even a team with the best of players needs the best of coaching to succeed.

New England has a player with great talent at receiver but who had a reputation for letting his emotional nature interfere with his personal life and professional career in Randy Moss (although he seems to have cleaned that up). Now, McDaniels has Brandon Marshall to mentor. The Patriots' passing attack also featured the great route-running of Wes Welker. Now Eddie Royal's abilities can be honed, developed and maximized in the same way, a thought that has to bother opposing defensive coordinators. And then there is Jabar Gaffney, already familiar with McDaniels' terminology and scheme and a solid, productive receiver in his own right. If you add Stokley, whose slot running is at times similar to Welker's, perhaps Chad Jackson and potentially, we believe, a receiver or tight end from the draft, you have a fantastic fit, merging old with new.

Tight Ends

Don't expect for a minute that Denver wants to trade Tony Scheffler unless the contracts have been signed. McDaniels used tight ends extensively in 2005 and even in 2006, but three things happened - Randy Moss, Wes Welker and the exit of Daniel Graham.

Although Graham has always wanted to be used more as a receiver, he's too valuable as a two-way threat. Graham was lauded by McDaniels when the two worked together, and with the preference for the pass and for multiple receivers including a tight end, Scheffler will be likely to get his catches if he stays healthy.

The H-back Role

Consider, for a moment, the possible role of the player that we like to call an H-back. As those of you who have read Doc's article The H-Back: Using the Magic Option know, he's always a little leery of this term, because it's often used without context or specific meaning. However, for right now, let's consider it as a running back who can play near the line and receive, but who can function in the running game as well - carrying, blocking in addition to his position as a back/receiver.

Doc: I know that I've mentioned Peyton Hillis in this role, and it's impossible to ignore his potential effectiveness as an H-back. But to pigeon-hole him in that position is to ignore how New England employed their running backs at times.

McDaniels employed a shotgun-spread formation with two or three wideouts, one tight end and a back, all spread out across the field near the line. At times he would do this with only four players - two wideouts, one tight end and one back, but he could and did substitute an extra WR or TE into the play. The running back was simply used as a receiver. Could Hillis be effective in this role? Heck Yes! He could do some serious damage.

But, so could Buckhalter, Arrington or Jordan. Many people have questioned McDaniels' acquisition of these players without carefully considering the context of his play-calling. Taken in the context of adding weapons to the arsenal whose tactics match those McDaniels employed in New England, they make perfect sense - and Young and Torain, if they can stay healthy, could certainly flourish here as well.

In one sense of this all-too-often loose term, any and all of these players can move into the H-back role. We often limit our thinking to a back/tight end who plays near the line in addition to the tight ends. That's one way to talk about it - perhaps the closest to what HoosierTeacher spoke of in his seminal piece, Football University - The Coming Storm (Magic 3). But whatever the terminology, New England played a running back in a wideout role in addition to the tight end(s) commonly, and that's a potent weapon that all of Denver's current backs can provide.

Since the Patriots' version of the spread formation tried to expand the field horizontally as well as vertically, look for increased use of routes that employ unusual angles, as New England did with Welker, bringing him across the field to that low crossing-route. Expect to see the tight end to drop into a halfback slot, multiple tight-end sets that will often look familiar and a lot of motion from the tight ends. Anticipate more receivers on the field: wide receivers, tight ends and running backs. Unless there is a major reason, look for the fullback (whoever it is), to have a limited, but essential role - keeping the blitzers off the quarterback. And expect McDaniels to thank his karma for permitting him to use the Denver O-Line.

We believe that the new season will see an increase in the Broncos' scoring. The problems that the Broncos had were generally ones in which the coaching played a big role. The discomfort with running effectively at the goal line was sad to see. Next year, the play calling will be quite different. If history is any judge, it will be much better.

And finally - expect the plays to change each week, and to see the Broncos finally make offensive and defensive adjustments during the games and during the season. It will take time to establish the new offensive and defensive approaches. This is not a small thing that Denver has decided to do. But in the end, we believe that all signs point to a good outcome, and a steady development of the Broncos' players and team over the next two years. McDaniels understands how to win now and build for the future concurrently. His words and

Which Teams Would be Interested in Trading for Larry Johnson?

Chris Thorman — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 19:53:55 -0000

So far this week at Arrowhead Pride, it's been Larry Johnson, Larry Johnson and more Larry Johnson. If you're weren't sick of the guy already, this past week of coverage may have put you overboard.

So naturally, what do you we have for you? Another post on Larry Johnson!

Hate us, yet?

Anyway, we've all been talking about what the Kansas City Chiefs' recent victory in their salary grievance case means for LJ's future. Some want Larry to stay in KC; others would cut him this second without getting anything in exchange.

Before we get into what teams may possibly be interested in trading for Larry Johnson, I want to preface this post with one point. This is not a post suggesting that Larry should be traded. It's simply examining the options out there should a trade come up for discussion. I didn't make that clear in yesterday's post about what Larry's trade value is. These are hypotheticals if a trade does indeed go down.

Both Primetime and I, despite our annoyance with Larry, still think the best option is to run his butt into the ground and max out any value the Chiefs can get. That is, if they can't find a trade suitor.

Yesterday, most of us put Larry Johnson's market value between a 3rd and 5th round pick. What teams may or may not (emphasis on may) be interested? Jump over to see who were talking about.

Arizona Cardinals (Revenge of the Birds)

Draft Picks	Current RBs
Round 1, Pick 31 (31)	Castille, Tim
Round 2, Pick 31 (63)	Green, Justin
Round 3, Pick 31 (95)	Hightower, Tim
Round 4, Pick 31 (131)	James, Edgerrin
Round 5, Pick 31 (167)	Kreider, Dan
Round 6, Pick 31 (204)	Vincent, Chris
Round 7, Pick 31 (240)	Wright, Jason
Round 7, Pick 45 (254)

A trade for Larry Johnson is a possibility but Edgerrin James and LJ aren't that different in at this point in their careers. James will be 31 at the start of the 2009 season and LJ will be 29.

It's certainly a possibility, though I would put the Cardinals likely interest as moderate, at best. LJ wouldn't be a significant upgrade over James and Tim Hightower presents a solid option in 2009.

Cincinnati Bengals (Cincy Jungle)

Draft Picks	Current RBs
Round 1, Pick 6 (6)	Benson, Cedric
Round 2, Pick 6 (38)	Dorsey, DeDe
Round 3, Pick 6 (70)	Johnson, James
Round 3, Pick 34 (98)	Perry, Chris
Round 4, Pick 6 (106)	Runnels, J.D.
Round 5, Pick 6 (142)	Watson, Kenny
Round 6, Pick 6 (179)
Round 6, Pick 36 (209)
Round 7, Pick 6 (215)
Round 7, Pick 40 (249)
Round 7, Pick 43 (252)

The Bengals have been working out Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno so it's likely that they're at least interested in adding some talent at the RB position. Cedric Benson had a decent season in 12 games of work but they still lack some depth there.

I would place the Bengals interest slightly above the Cardinals because LJ would immediately become the best option on the roster.

Those five 6th and 7th round draft picks probably wouldn't interest the Chiefs enough but two 3rd rounders give the Bengals enough firepower to assuredly get a deal done.

Baltimore Ravens (Baltimore Beatdown)

Draft Picks	Current RBs
Round 1, Pick 26 (26)	Daniels, P.J.
Round 2, Pick 25 (57)	Lawrence, Matt
Round 3, Pick 24 (88)	McClain, Le'Ron
Round 4, Pick 23 (123)	McGahee, Willis
Round 5, Pick 26 (162)	Parmele, Jalen
Round 6, Pick 25 (198)	Rice, Ray

Is Willis McGahee sticking around? The Ravens just picked up Ray Rice but Johnson could be a a replacement for McGahee, whose slated to hit FA next season.

It would probably be in the Ravens best interest to keep McGahee this season because he'll probably be trying to increase his value on the open market so it's unlikely the Ravens would add LJ and carry both on their roster.

The interest level for the Ravens would be low.

Cleveland Browns (Dawgs by Nature)

Draft Picks	Current RBs
Round 1, Pick 5 (5)	Ali, Charles
Round 2, Pick 4 (36)	Harrison, Jerome
Round 2, Pick 18 (50)	Herron, Noah
Round 4, Pick 4 (104)	Lewis, Jamal
Round 6, Pick 4 (177)	Patrick, Allen
	Thomas, Marcus
	Vickers, Lawrence

Jamal Lewis probably won't be in Cleveland past this season. He's only a few months older than LJ so a trade wouldn't accomplish much in terms of getting younger (which is the main reason Lewis would be gone after this season).

The Browns interest level would likely be higher than the Ravens but not as much as the Cardinals or Bengals.

With only two picks after the first day, the biggest question is if the Browns will continue the Phil Savage way and trade draft picks.

Dallas Cowboys (Blogging the Boys)

Draft Picks	Current RBs
Round 2, Pick 19 (51)	Anderson, Deon
Round 3, Pick 5 (69)	Barber, Marion
Round 4, Pick 1 (101)	Choice, Tashard
Round 4, Pick 17 (117)	Coleman, Alonzo
Round 5, Pick 20 (156)	Crosslin, Julius
Round 5, Pick 30 (166)	Jones, Felix
Round 5, Pick 36 (172)
Round 6, Pick 24 (197)
Round 6, Pick 35 (208)
Round 7, Pick 1 (210)
Round 7, Pick 18 (227)

Never count the Cowboys out but with Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, RB is a minor need. They did lose Julius Jones last year who was a first and second down back before Barber broke loose.

The Cowboys interest is difficult to gauge but I still wouldn't place it above the Cardinals or Bengals.

Five 4th and 5th round picks is enough wiggle room to get a deal done with the Chiefs without hampering the rest of the draft.

Denver Broncos (Mile High Report)

Draft Picks	Current RBs
Round 1, Pick 12 (12)	Young, Selvin
Round 1, Pick 18 (18)	Buckhalter, Correll
Round 2, Pick 16 (48)	Hall, Andre
Round 3, Pick 15 (79)	Hillis, Peyton
Round 3, Pick 20 (84)	Jordan, LaMont
Round 4, Pick 14 (114)	Pinnock, Andrew
Round 5, Pick 13 (149)	Torain, Ryan
Round 6, Pick 12 (185)
Round 7, Pick 16 (225)
Round 7, Pick 26 (235)

The Broncos put 7 RBs on IR last season so they're definitely in the market even after adding Correll Buckhalter and J.J. Arrington in FA.

But do you really expect the Chiefs to send LJ to Denver? Not me. Besides, the Broncos can get away with a Buckhalter/LaMont Jordan combo next season.

But if they wanted to do it, those two 3rd round picks are likely enough ammo to get a deal done.

Houston Texans (Battle Red Blog)

Draft Picks	Current RBs
Round 1, Pick 15 (15)	Brown, Chris
Round 2, Pick 14 (46)	Leach, Vonta
Round 3, Pick 13 (77)	Moats, Ryan
Round 4, Pick 12 (112)	Sapp, Cecil
Round 4, Pick 22 (122)	Slaton, Steve
Round 5, Pick 16 (152)
Round 6, Pick 15 (188)
Round 7, Pick 14 (223)

Ahman Green has already approached the end of the line in Houston so they could be interested in adding someone to complement swift Steve Slaton. However, LJ's running style isn't the best fit for the zone blocking scheme Gary Kubiak runs in Houston.

Still, Kubiak remembers how well LJ ran over Denver when he was with the Broncos so it remains a possibility. The interest level would be low.

Indianapolis Colts (Stampede Blue)

Draft Picks	Current RBs
Round 1, Pick 27 (27)	Addai, Joseph
Round 2, Pick 29 (61)	Ball, Lance
Round 3, Pick 28 (92)	Hart, Mike
Round 4, Pick 27 (127)	Simpson, Chad
Round 4, Pick 36 (136)
Round 5, Pick 29 (165)
Round 6, Pick 28 (201)
Round 7, Pick 27 (236)

They're listed as possibly interested because RB could be construed as a need for them. However, LJ doesn't pass block well and the Colts are a pass heavy team. LJ wouldn't present a major upgrade with their style of play.

The interest level would be very low.

Jacksonville Jaguars (Big Cat Country)

Draft Picks	Current RBs
Round 1, Pick 8 (8)	Cotrone, Anthony
Round 2, Pick 7 (39)	Jones, Greg
Round 3, Pick 8 (72)	Jones-Drew, Maurice
Round 4, Pick 7 (107)	Owens, Montell
Round 5, Pick 8 (144)	Pearman, Alvin
Round 6, Pick 7 (180)	Washington, Chauncey
Round 7, Pick 23 (232)
Round 7, Pick 41 (250)
Round 7, Pick 44 (253)

They lost Fred Taylor to FA so LJ could play a role in extending the life of Maurice Jones-Drew who has yet to be the feature guy in the Jags offense.

Though there haven't been any reports indicating any interest, I would suspect the Jaguars would be interested in adding a veteran back like Johnson. Remember, this team won 11 games just two seasons ago so they may be in a "win-now" mode which could benefit someone like LJ in the latter stages of his career.

New England Patriots (Pats Pulpit)

Draft Picks	Current RBs
Round 1, Pick 23 (23)	Faulk, Kevin
Round 2, Pick 2 (34)	Green-Ellis, BenJarvus
Round 2, Pick 15 (47)	Maroney, Laurence
Round 2, Pick 26 (58)	Morris, Sammy
Round 3, Pick 25 (89)	Taylor, Fred
Round 3, Pick 33 (97)
Round 4, Pick 24 (124)
Round 5, Pick 34 (170)
Round 6, Pick 26 (199)
Round 6, Pick 34 (207)
Round 7, Pick 25 (234)

The Pats should be interested in a player like LJ. They've demonstrated an ability to A) control "problem children" (Randy Moss) and B) take in veterans seemingly on the way down.

NE is likely to continue with a RB by committee approach next year according to Mike Reiss of the Boston Globe but expect there to be some interest from New England should Johnson become available. They won't pay top dollar which wouldn't make it a #1 landing spot for LJ but expect there still to be some moderate interest.

New Orleans Saints (Canal Street Chronicles)

Draft Picks	Current RBs
Round 1, Pick 14 (14)	Barnes, Darian
Round 4, Pick 16 (116)	Bell, Mike
Round 4, Pick 18 (118)	Bush, Reggie
Round 7, Pick 13 (222)	Evans, Heath
	Hamilton, Lynell
	Houser, Kevin
	Sobomehin, Olaniyi
	Stecker, Aaron
	Thomas, Pierre

Deuce McAllister is an UFA and was a similar type of back to LJ. Deuce has a more significant injury history and LJ does represent an upgrade at this spot.

Though recent reports say the Saints are ready for Reggie Bush to be "the guy", it's not really feasible to expect him to carry the full load by himself.

I would expect the Saints to be as interested in LJ as the Cardinals or Bengals. The real question is do they have the ammo to initiate a trade like this with only four draft picks?

Philadelphia Eagles (Bleeding Green Nation)

Draft Picks	Current RBs
Round 1, Pick 21 (21)	Booker, Lorenzo
Round 1, Pick 28 (28)	Buckley, Eldra
Round 2, Pick 21 (53)	Eckel, Kyle
Round 3, Pick 21 (85)	Weaver, Leonard
Round 4, Pick 21 (121)	Westbrook, Brian
Round 5, Pick 5 (141)
Round 5, Pick 17 (153)
Round 5, Pick 21 (157)
Round 5, Pick 23 (159)
Round 6, Pick 21 (194)
Round 6, Pick 22 (195)
Round 7, Pick 21 (230)

Absolutely a need. Brian Westbrook is the only proven commodity on this list.

An LJ signing would A) help extend the career of Westbrook by splitting carries with him and B) give another weapon in the offense for Donovan McNabb. Remember, this team made it to the NFC Championship game last season so they're certainly interested in a "one final push" scenario before McNabb moves on.

I would place their interest in LJ at the top of the list especially since they have four 5th round picks to play around with.

Seattle Seahawks (Field Gulls)

Draft Picks	Current RBs
Round 1, Pick 4 (4)	Duckett, T.J.
Round 2, Pick 5 (37)	Forsett, Justin
Round 3, Pick 4 (68)	Jones, Julius
Round 4, Pick 5 (105)	Schmitt, Owen
Round 5, Pick 1 (137)
Round 6, Pick 5 (178)
Round 7, Pick 4 (213)
Round 7, Pick 36 (245)
Round 7, Pick 38 (247)
Round 7, Pick 39 (248)

RB is a need but not a major one (right now) compared to other needs across the board for Seattle.

All four RBs listed above were acquired within the last year by the Seahawks. They should have an interest in LJ but likely wouldn't be major players putting their interest level at low.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Buc 'Em)

Draft Picks	Current RBs
Round 1, Pick 19 (19)	Askew, B.J.
Round 3, Pick 17 (81)	Cook, Jameel
Round 4, Pick 20 (120)	Graham, Earnest
Round 5, Pick 19 (155)	Smith, Clifton
Round 6, Pick 18 (191)	Storer, Byron
Round 7, Pick 8 (217)	Ward, Derrick
Round 7, Pick 20 (229)	Williams, Cadillac
Round 7, Pick 24 (233)

I'm not sure if I would call this a need or an area of interest. Earnest Graham, Derrick Ward and a rehabilitated (really?) Cadillac Williams are likely all they'll take into the 2009 season.

Ward just signed a $17 million deal on March 2nd so that likely puts their interest in LJ at a minimum.

Poll

Who would be most interested in trading for Larry Johnson?

Arizona Cardinals

178 votes

Cincinnati Bengals

63 votes

Baltimore Ravens

24 votes

Cleveland Browns

74 votes

Dallas Cowboys

32 votes

Denver Broncos

39 votes

Houston Texans

40 votes

Indianapolis Colts

21 votes

Jacksonville Jaguars

32 votes

New England Patriots

83 votes

New Orleans Saints

75 votes

Philadelphia Eagles

340 votes

Seattle Seahawks

64 votes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

29 votes

1094 votes | Poll has closed

Being Billy Devaney - RB

Tackle Box — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 17:40:14 -0000

Continuing our search for depth and possible future assets, BBD turns to the position of Running Back. You can't have enough good viable running backs and if Spags and company are truely committed to focusing on the run, then we're probably going to have to beef up that position a bit.

Unfortunately, Runnning Back is actually a position that has gotten it's fair share of attention for a long time. I say "unfortunately" because for all the draft picks spent on the position, there's not a whole lot to show for it because it's not like the team has totally neglected to draft or acquire running backs. Now, one could easily make an argument against a lot of the guys they've brought in (Trung Candidate, I'm kinda looking in your direction......oh, and could you please take a seat next to Brian Leonard? Thanks) but there have also been a couple of true stars. And by "a couple" I mean "exactly two".

We all remember the Marshall Faulk trade and how could anyone forget Steven Jackson. For some reason (and this completely baffles me), there are people who doubt that Steven Jackson is an elite running back in the NFL. Personally, I have no idea how you could miss it, but I digress.

Some may point to Jackson's injuries like that's a legitimate knock on the guy. If you haven't noticed, running backs get hurt all the time in today's game. I suppose it's because the defensive players are bigger, stronger, and faster than ever before. Whatever the reason, you can't go into a season any more with one viable running back. Your guy WILL get injured at some point and then you're in big trouble. Plus, having a viable backup allows you to have a change of pace and someone who can give opportunities of rest to Jackson that might actually help keep him healthy.

(btw, did anyone notice Jackson got hurt this past season during garbage time? The game was in hand for the Rams and he was out there getting handoffs. I blame that one on the coaching staff and the fact they didn't have another running back on the roster who was any good. However, even if they didn't have anyone viable, Jackson shouldn't have been out there.)

So, with that being said, we'll take a look at the running back position and some possible upgrades to that number 2 slot which is becoming more and more important.

Let's take a look at the roster.

Steven Jackson - 6'2" 231 - Signed through 2013 (if he averages 1,200 yards rushing and 400 yards receiving over the first 4 years of his contract he voids the final two years) - Jackson counts $7.4M against this year's cap. Oh, and he's a stud.
Kenneth Darby - 5'10" 211 - Signed through 2009 (RFA in 2010) - Darby emerged as the number 2 running back for the Rams last year, the question is...is he the guy to hold that spot going forward? Personally, I'm not sure. He's definitely a change of pace back for the Rams and he didn't seem to let the two fumbles in his first game affect his play the rest of the season, so maybe he's a diamond in the rough.
Antonio Pittman - 5'11" 195 - Signed through 2009 (RFA in 2010) - When the Rams claimed Pittman after the Saints let him walk last year, I thought they had really made a coup. Well, Pittman hasn't exactly shined in his backup role and now finds himself behind Darby on the depth chart while being pretty much the same exact type of runner. I wouldn't be surprised to see Pittman cut lose at some point this offseason especially if the team drafts a running back.
Brian Leonard - 6'1" 226 - Signed through 2010 - After a really good career at Rutgers, Leonard has failed to do anything in the NFL. He's got great size and has good speed and athleticism, but for whatever reason, he just hasn't (can't?) gotten it done as a pro. He's probably safe for this season, but he'll be gone before the 2010 season.

So, there's our running backs. I suppose your opinion of this unit falls squarely upon how you feel about Kenneth Darby and his ability to be a valuable part of the offense. If the Rams are going to focus on the run as much as they say they are this season, then Darby (or whoever becomes the number 2 RB) will have to be able to log valuable and productive minutes on the field. Can Darby do it? Honestly, I'm not convinced but I feel much better about him than I do about Pittman and Leonard.

But, let's say Darby isn't the answer we all seek. So what now? Do we target a Free Agent or do we look to the draft? Well, there are positives and negatives to each of those options. A draft pick would probably be cheaper since we'd be drafting this position later in the draft and that draft pick could possibly develop into a legit running back but then again with a free agent RB, you pretty much know what you're getting but with less upside. Many RBs fail making the transition to the NFL. Can the Rams afford to lose a draft pick on a guy who fails?

Of course I realize this could be said about any of our draft picks, but with so many needs is it smarter to see if there's a good backup on the market now who has a proven track record? I think it's worth a look.

Warrick Dunn - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 5'9" 180 - Could you imagine a backfield of Jackson and Dunn? Wow.......I just got a tingly feeling inside. As of right now, there is no news out there about Dunn. He had a great season last year and would be a great addition to a team as a third down/change of pace back.
Deuce McAllister - New Orleans Saints - 6'1" 232 - Here's a guy that can do the dirty work........if healthy. He's had both knees operated on but he's been working out at Duke University and says he feels "fine". He also claims he's spoken to "10-12 teams". About what, I'm not sure. But apparently there's some interest in him.
Ahman Green - Houston Texans - 6'0" 218 - At this point, he's probably too old (32) and too injured to be a legit option here. He had some really good years but has played more than 8 games in only one of his last four seasons.
Tatum Bell - Denver Broncos - 5'11" 213 - Bell is still a pretty good RB, but his off the field troubles kinda overshadow him and make him a risky signing.
Dominic Rhodes - Indianpolis Colts - 5'9" 203 - Rhodes probably isn't a great fit for the Rams future run-happy offense. If all the Rams needed was a guy who could get a couple of yards and catch some passes, that'd be fine, but that's not really what they need. They need someone durable who can do some dirty work (so Jackson doesn't have to do it all) and Rhodes probably isn't that guy.

After Rhodes, there really isn't anyone who instills any interest in me. So, what do you think? I really like Dunn and wonder what it would take to get him. Granted, I know I just said in the Dominic Rhodes piece that the Rams need someone who can do some dirty work, but Dunn is just a special talent. He gets things done. Period. And would be a deadly combination in the backfield with SJ.

But, I understand there are people out there who are committed to finding a backup in the draft. There's some guys available, but with this piece I'm not going to be looking at the first 4 rounds. I decided long ago the Rams need to focus on OT, MLB, CB, WR and DT and if they draft anything other than one of those 5 guys in the first four rounds, it'll feel to me as if they've missed out on something.

So, looking at rounds 5 through 7, let's take a look at the Running Backs.

(Remember, if the name is highlighted, click it to read Mocking Dan's scouting report)

Javon Ringer - Michigan State - 5'8" 205 - Ringer has improved his stock (possibly too much for the Rams to get in the front of the 5th round) since having his knee scoped in January by running a 4.42 40-yard at he combine and by posting a three-cone time that was 0.07 seconds faster than any other running back at the combine. Ringer also had an impressive Pro Day by running the short-shuttle drill in 3.89 seconds. By the way, the fastest running back at the combine (Branden Ore and Bernard Scott) was 4.08 seconds and the best time posted by any player at the combine (Kevin Barnes) was 3.96 seconds. Needless to say, Javon Ringer is healthy, and while his 40-times could improve, having straightaway speed for a running back is less important than the cone and shuttle drills.
James Davis - Clemson - 5'11" 210 - Davis is not a very good receiver and is just an average runner. He ran a 4.45 40-yard at his Pro Day but many are suspect of the time since it was run on a rubber track and at the Combine he ran a 4.60 40-yard. That's a pretty drastic improvement.
Mike Goodson - Texas A&M - 6'0" 212 - I like Goodson better than Davis but I'm not in love with him. He's bigger and probably faster than Davis (4.43 Pro Day and 4.54 Combine) but right now, Ringer looks like the pick of this bunch.
Kory Sheets - Purdue - 6'0" 206 - Had a very good year for Purdue and has possibly been a little over-looked. Probably has a future as a backup/3rd down back and return man in the NFL. Catches the ball well.
Antone Smith - Florida State - 5'9" 190 - Has vaulted himself on to many a team's radar by posting a 4.32 40-yard, 31 reps on the bench, a 32-inch vertical, and a 10-2 broad jump at his Pro Day (he wasn't invited to the Combine). Typically, I don't advocate drafting Running Backs of this size (Warrick Dunn is a freak of nature). They typically get hurt or are simply unable to make an impact no matter how fast or shifty they may be (Garrett Wolfe).
Glen Coffee - Alabama - 6'1" 198 - Needs to bulk up a little to make a successful transition to the NFL. Had really only one good year at Alabama and probably should have stayed there for his senior year. If he had, he might have been able to get into the 3rd or 2nd round, but at this point he's at best a 4th rounder and probably a little lower.
Tavarris Williams - Tennessee State - 5'11" 215 - He's short but powerful. He also shows good quickness and change of direction.
Ian Johnson - Boise State - 5'11" 212 - Somehow, Ian Johnson put on almost 20 pounds before the Combine and still wowed many scouts. He ran an "un-official" 40 time of 4.30 (his official was 4.46) and has convinced some scouts he's more than just a third-down back in the NFL. Has drawn comparisons to Steve Slaton.
Arian Foster - Tennessee - 6'1" 215 - I guess we now know where Ian Johnson found that extra weight since it's apparent the "former" power back at Tennessee lost about 20 pounds before the Combine. Ran a 4.73 and a 4.69 40-yard at his pro day. Probably needs to get the weight back to have value in the NFL.

(Check out Mocking Dan's Running Back Rankings)

After Foster, you're probably looking at guys like Jeremiah Johnson...here's his pic (Oregon), Devin Moore (Wyoming), Gartrell Johnson (Colorado State), and Josh Vaughn (Richmond) although any of these guys and a handful of others could be picked up as un-drafted free agents at a later date but they probably aren't what the Rams are looking for anyway.

Of this group, I probably only like Javon Ringer but there's a possibility he could be gone by the time the Rams get to their 5th pick and I don't think I'd like to pick him ahead of any of the other (more important positions) in the draft. Ian Johnson might be one to keep an eye on and you could probably get him in the 5th round (maybe high 6th which would be ideal).

So, at this point, I really want the Rams to take a strong and long look at Warrick Dunn. I think with him in the fold, the Rams offense becomes absoltuely powerful. Plus, adding him takes away from our lack of experience at the WR postion since you'd have the possibitliy of Steven Jackson, Warrick Dunn, and Randy McMichael running routes which would definitely keep defeneses honest and should free up Donnie Avery deep.

Can the Arizona Cardinals Afford Pass on a First Round Running Back?

Hawkwind — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 15:58:13 -0000

For those of you that have been around ROTB for any length of time, you know we've covered the Arizona Cardinals inability to run the ball ad nasuem so I won't bore you with the same old stats (like we were the worst rushing offense in the league last year, ok I tried). Moving forward something must be done to improve the running game and upgrading the running back position seems like the most pressing need. It seems like a forgone conclusion that the Cardinals will emerge from the draft with at least one running back and the only real question is how early they'll call his name. Many fans and draft-niks alike fully expect the Cardinals to take the best available running back with their first round pick while others are clamoring for a middle round pick. With that in mind, here's a historical look at first round backs versus their counterparts chosen in later rounds.

First some explanation of what we're about to discuss. I disregarded past two drafts so that each player would have three full seasons of stats to dissect and I went back as far as 2000. That leaves us with seven years of draft history and ~~136~~ 135 ( we won't count Dante Hall as a RB, even though he was one in college) running backs to analyze. In an effort to be somewhat concise (not my strong suit) we won't cover each and every back individually. I took some liberties in determining whether each player was a 'successful' or 'unsuccessful' pick but I tried to be somewhat fair across the board. Basically I looked at each and every back and assigned a 'grade' to their careers so far (0-4). Here's a quick breakdown of the grading system:

Zero: Very little or no impact on their team's running game
One: Strictly a role player and minimal impact
Two: Backup RB at best
Three: Borderline starter and somewhat lengthy career
Four: Front line starter and/or franchise back

I'm sure we could quibble about the grades of individual players (whether they're a 3 or 4 or a 2 or 3), but I tried to be consistent with the rankings. The end result hopefully will give us some kind of indicator as to how long we can wait in the draft before selecting a running back capable of becoming at least a productive player, if not starter at some point in the future.

As a quick disclaimer, I did not consider special teams contributions or return ability since we're looking for a starting-quality running back.

For those who were hoping to read a story supporting the use of a middle round pick on a running back, you might be disappointed. The likelihood of drafting a starting-quality running back drops every round after the first round in the past seven years. Here's the average grade for each round:

Round 1: 3.227
Round 2: 2.571
Round 3: 1.833
Round 4: 1.222
Round 5: 1.000
Round 6: 0.556
Round 7: 0.208

Now, does that mean that quality backs can't be found any later than the first round? Of course not, but it's much more likely to find a starting running back in the first round than any other round in the draft. For those that are still skeptical, here's a year by year look at the running backs selected from 2000 to 2006.

2000 Draft: Overall there were 23 backs selected in the 2000 draft, including five first rounders, but this wasn't a particularly great year for backs. First round backs included Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Ron Dayne, Shaun Alexander and Trung Candidate of which three of those (Lewis, Jones & Alexander) become starting quality backs (worthy of grade 4). After the first round though, the only notable names include third round pick Reuben Droughns (graded 3), fifth round pick Sammy Morris (graded 2) and sixth round pick Mike Anderson (graded 3).

2001 Draft: Overall there were 18 backs in this draft including three first rounders, but this was a good draft for backs in the middle rounds. The first round backs included LaDainian Tomlinson (4), Deuce McAllister (4) and Michael Bennett (2), but starting quality backs also emerged from later rounds. Of the backs who graded out with a 4, Travis Henry was drafted in the second and Rudi Johnson was selected in the fourth. Of the backs who graded out a 3, Anthony Thomas and LaMont Jordan were second rounds picks and Kevan Barlow was a third round pick.

2002 Draft: This was a great year for all of those who'd prefer to wait until the middle rounds. 22 picks were used on running backs but both, William Green and TJ Duckett, didn't live up to the billing and there were out shined by a solid class of middle round picks. Clinton Portis (2nd rounder) and Brian Westbrook (3rd rounder) both graded out as a 4 and Chester Taylor (6th rounder) also graded out as a 3. This was one of the only years when the first round didn't have the highest average.

2003 Draft: The trend from 2002 didn't bleed over to 2003 though. Fifteen backs were drafted but none were better than the two that came out of the first round, Willis McGahee and Larry Johnson. The only other backs of note were third rounders, Chris Brown and Justin Fargas and fourth rounder Domanick Williams. Overall this was a pretty bad year for backs as nine of the fifteen backs graded out as a one or zero.

2004 Draft: A decent year for running backs produced 17 backs, including three in the first round and three more in the second round. The first round backs are headlined by Steven Jackson but Chris Perry and Kevin Jones have been disappointing to say the least. In the second round, Tatum Bell, Julius Jones and Greg Jones have all been decent players in the league. Michael Turner was also a gem out of the fifth round and Derrick Ward made a name for himself out of the seventh round.

2005 Draft: A big year year for running backs produced 24 picks, including three of the top five picks in the draft. Unfortunately though, those high first rounders, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson and Cadillac Williams, haven't been consistently productive so far and have been out done by backs selected in later rounds. Backs who graded out as a 4 include third round pick Frank Gore and two fourth round picks Marion Barber and Brandon Jacobs. Other notable backs include J.J Arrington and Darren Sproles, both of which were graded as a two.

2006 Draft: The final year that we looked at produced 17 running backs and so far has been a very deep year for backs. First rounders include Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, DeAngelo Williams and Joseph Addai, of which three of the four (Bush, Williams and Addai) grade out a a three or better. Quality backs were also found in the second and third rounds though when LenDale White, Maurice Jones-Drew and Jerious Norwood were selected.

--------------------------------------------------------------

So what, if anything, can we conclude from all this data? First, in nearly every year there is a first round bust at running back (Ron Dayne, William Green, Chris Perry, Cedric Benson and Laurence Maroney) and there is always a back or two who emerges from the middle rounds who turns out to be a quality starter (Reuben Droughns, Rudi Johnson, Brian Westbrook, Chester Taylor, Justin Fargas, Michael Turner, Frank Gore etc). But, I think we can also see that the most likely round to draft a running back with the potential to become a future starter is the first round. After all for every Westbrook and Gore, there are two Brian Calhouns or Manueal Whites or Quentin Griffins. So what do you think? Is it worth the risk to wait until the middle rounds to select a running back?

Arizona Cardinals Hang the Help Wanted Sign: A Look at Veteran Running Backs

Hawkwind — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 18:59:13 -0000

The Arizona Cardinals running game struggled to say the least in 2008 and they finished the regular season as the worst unit in the entire NFL. To worsen matters they've allowed their third string and change of pace back to leave via free agency with the expectation to release their on-again-off-again starter Edgerrin James at any time. With two holes on the depth chart and the only remaining back, Tim Hightower entering his second season, it's unlikely that the Redbirds will wait until the draft to address the need at running back. That leaves them scouring the free agent market for a veteran back who can replace Edge's production while receiving a considerably lower salary. Luckily for the Cardinals there have been a handful of veteran running backs to hit the free agent market this off season and there are still several noticeable names on the market. Are they worth bringing in and do they have anything left in the tank?

We take a look after the jump.....

(Backs listed alphabetically)

Tatum Bell

#21 / Denver Broncos

Height: 5-11

Weight: 213

Born: Mar 02, 1981

College:

		Rushing						Receiving
	G	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	Lng	TD	Rec	Yds	Y/G	Avg	Lng	TD
2008 - Tatum Bell	6	44	249	41.5	5.7	37	2	10	57	9.5	5.7	12	0

Bell is the youngest option on the list but that doesn't mean he's necessarily the best option. One thing working in his favor is his production though as he's averaged 4.9 yards per carry during his five year career and last season he averaged a career best 5.7 yards per carry. Of course he was selling cell phones at the mall before the Broncos called him. So why is he still unsigned and why did the Broncos sign three other running backs instead of bringing him back?

Bell has some off the field issues and most think he's vastly underachieved given his abilities (which tells you something about his physical talent). While Bell might have the most upside of any of these backs, he's also the most unpredictable. He'll likely come very cheap, considering that he was out of football until Denver called midway through the season, but there's also no guarantee that he'll come motivated or in-shape. He also wouldn't offer anything to Hightower in terms of a mentor, but his slash and dash running style would be nice compliment and he's a decent receiver out of the backfield.

Bottom Line: Plenty of upside but some risk involved and his contributions will be limited to between the stripes.

Warrick Dunn

#28 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Height: 5-9

Weight: 180

Born: Jan 05, 1975

College:

		Rushing						Receiving
	G	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	Lng	TD	Rec	Yds	Y/G	Avg	Lng	TD
2008 - Warrick Dunn	15	186	786	52.4	4.2	40	2	47	330	22.0	7.0	36	0

Dunn is the eldest of the current free agent backs, but that hasn't stopped him from remaining productive. His 2008 campaign was his most efficient since 2005 he's totaled over 1,000 combined yards (rushing and receiving) in every single season of his 13 year career. He's also a high quality individual who would be a valuable asset in the locker room and despite being questioned about his lack for size for most of his career, he's missed just 11 games in 13 seasons. The only question with Dunn is how much does he have left in the tank?

Most will say that Dunn has lost a step and isn't a starter anymore and they're probably right, but he could still fill a role for the Cardinals. Dunn has always been tough to bring down and a much tougher runner than his diminutive size would suggest. He's at his best when in space and could still be threat out of the backfield. Dunn could fill the void left by Arrington and is one of the most respected veterans in the league. He'd be a solid locker room presence and there isn't a better back for Hightower to learn from.

Bottom Line: Sign Dunn and you get a guy who can still play and half a coach.

Deuce McAllister

#26 / New Orleans Saints

Height: 6-1

Weight: 232

Born: Dec 27, 1978

College:

		Rushing						Receiving
	G	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	Lng	TD	Rec	Yds	Y/G	Avg	Lng	TD
2008 - Deuce McAllister	13	107	418	32.2	3.9	19	5	18	128	9.8	7.1	20	1

We've looked at the youngest and oldest and now Deuce represents the guy with the most question marks. He's undoubtedly a power back who was capable of being a workhorse, but at this point in his career his knees could put him on the brink of retirement. He's torn both ACL (right knee in 2005 and left knee in 2007) and he hasn't played a full season since 2003. McAllister wouldn't be the change of pace back that Bell or Dunn would provide, but his running style is similar to Hightower which could help develop the promising youngster. The question remains though, can his knees hold up for another season?

When I think of Deuce I picture that catcher from the movie Major League (Jake something or other), you know when he's on the plane icing his knees after each game. The good news is that Deuce might have a couple more years in those legs if he can play a limited role, which the Cardinals would probably prefer. If he's asked to start or become a workhorse back though, it could end up being a massive failure. Just three times in 2008 did he carry the ball more than 10 times in a game and each time he was unproductive in the following game.

Bottom Line: Injuries are a huge concern but at the right price and limited role he could be very productive.

Dominic Rhodes

#38 / Indianapolis Colts

Height: 5-9

Weight: 203

Born: Jan 17, 1979

College:

		Rushing						Receiving
	G	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	Lng	TD	Rec	Yds	Y/G	Avg	Lng	TD
2008 - Dominic Rhodes	16	152	538	33.6	3.5	38	6	45	302	18.9	6.7	29	3

Now before you completely dismiss Rhodes as a spare or career nobody, consider that he's a career backup who wouldn't carry much of a cap hit. He's also an accomplished receiver out of the backfield (45 receptions last year) and has plenty of experience protecting an immobile quarterback. He's only started 33 games in nine seasons so he won't be whining about playing time or lack of touches. He's a role player who doesn't hurt his team's chances of winning.

Bottom Line: He's not a sexy name but there's very little risk in signing him.

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Now it's your turn so put on your Rod Graves mask and step into the GM's office. Who would you sign and what would your offer be? Any other guys your interested in that we didn't mention (ie Ahman Green, Rudi Johnson, Ron Dayne)?

Poll

Which veteran running back would you sign?

Tatum Bell

53 votes

Warrick Dunn

130 votes

Deuce McAllister

46 votes

Dominic Rhodes

96 votes

Other (specify below)

25 votes

350 votes | Poll has closed