SB Nation - Jay Cutler

Bengals Banter: Should the Bengals go pass happy against the Vikings?

Kirkendall — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:17:42 -0000

Should the Bengals attack the Vikings through the air this weekend? It's not exactly a state secret that the Cincinnati Bengals decided to follow the same model that two successful AFC North teams have used in their own respective successes. Effective rushing offense. Strong defense. So when the Bengals rush the football more than they ever have on a Marvin Lewis team, is the question about balance all that necessary? Then again, what do you mean by balance? Do you mean yardage? Do you mean play calling?

The Bengals offense has rushed the football 51.2% of the time, while passing 49.7% of their 793 offensive snaps. Though, I feel you while your argument starts simmering about predictability. This isn't a Bob Bratkowski bash-fest.

But my primary question is, what philosophy is working best this year? The combined winning percentage of the top ten teams that have passed the most through 12 games this year, is 0.675 (81-39). The combined winning percentage of the top ten teams that have rushed the football the most this year is 0.625 (75-45).

The next question. With Cincinnati heading to the comforts of a warm dome in Minnesota, should the Bengals go from a rush-heavy offense to a pass-happy offense? The Vikings have one of the best tackle combinations in the league, which limits opposing offenses to 84.2 yards rushing per game -- third in the NFL -- with only three touchdowns rushing allowed all season. On the other hand, the Vikings are middle of the pack against the pass. They're passing defense ranks 21st, allowing 18 touchdowns this season with an opposing quarterback rating of 91.2. But they also sport the league's best pass rush, sacking the quarterback 40 times this season.

So if you're the Cincinnati Bengals' offensive coordinator? Would you game plan a passing attack? Keep the status quo and pound the football until the Viking stop you? Or would you do your best to have a balanced attack?

Bengals should have an indoor facility. There's some raising the issue that the Cincinnati Bengals are unnecessarily traveling to Mason during inclement weather to practice indoors. Joe Reedy writes, "It also throws another unnecessary wrinkle into the preparation for Sunday's contest at 10-2 Minnesota. Instead of having the extra time to watch film or refine game plans to face Brett Favre and company, the team spent at least 90 minutes going to and from Mason."

You mean to tell me that the only place that the Bengals can practice indoors in the entire Cincinnati region is all the way in Mason -- like we're taking a bus ride to Rhode Island?

Paul Daugherty wrote, "The Bengals had to practice in Mason, because they dont have a bubble. You know M. Lewis was steamed about that. The public will not tax itself to pay for it, and you can bet The Family isn't likely to open its vault. The Men lose an hour and a half every time they have to get on the bus. The Family's business is football. Not winning football. Never forget that."

Palmer says: "It’s a pain. It’s a drag, but it is what it is," quarterback Carson Palmer said. "Just sitting on the freeway for 45 minutes or an hour – we’ve actually sat on the busses for a couple hours one year because of the snow. It’s the situation we’re in."

I have no doubt that the Bengals SHOULD have an indoor facility for days like today and for preparation in games that will be played indoors. I don't know a single person that doesn't support the Bengals building an indoor facility. Really, there's no better way of saying it then the Bengals should have one.

But god forbid that people have to travel 25 minutes during inclement weather on the highway which has been totally clear during our snowy days this week. I'll play my little violin mp3 during my 40 minute one-way commute. And considering I have no reason to believe that the Bengals are spending their entire waking hours watching film, I'm sure the commute to and from Mason is easily packed into their working day.

But in the end, yes, the Bengals need to join the ranks of other teams with an indoor facility. It just makes too much sense.

Moving on...

Did you know that Carson Palmer is the best passer in the NFL on third and long? It's true. Of the 52 pass attempts he's made on third and longer-then-eight, Palmer has recorded 25 first down passes. That's nine percentage points over second place Tony Romo.

James Walker asks the question, are the Bengals elite? Scouts Inc.'s Matt Williamson doesn't think so. Why?

Williamson believes the Bengals have several holes that could be costly when they meet elite competition down the stretch. The two most glaring weaknesses Williamson points to are the Bengals' lack of depth at cornerback and their unwillingness to throw deep on offense.

We meant to do this earlier in the week. WhoDeyFans is having a gathering at Bar 71 this weekend for the Viking and Bengals game to "partake in dollar beers, cheap wings and great burgers". All Bengals fans are welcome.

Chad: "They’ll keep jacking up the fines, I’ll keep jacking up the celebrations." Should there be a worry that the NFL could suspend Chad if they finally discover that fines haven't really ever worked?

Domata Peko: "I’ll be fine. I’m feeling good. I wish I could have played these two games (against the Vikings and Chargers). These are big games, with the big running backs they have."

John Thornton weighs in on the rotating right tackle, saying "the Bengals should settle in on a guy and roll with it."

Reader smoormaniddy points out Sports Illustrated's Ross Tucker's piece about how the Bengals used the practice squad.

What you didn't know is that three of the linemen who have started at least five games up front for the Bengals are veterans of the practice squad, including two who have spent multiple seasons on what used to be referred to as the taxi squad. Center Kyle Cook, left guard Nate Livings and right tackle Dennis Roland have earned their playing time the hard way and they play like it.

Mike Zimmer on Bengals rookies: "I’ve played a lot of rookies before, but never this many on a team that was good."

Notes from first post...

Listed below is the top ten quarterbacks ranked by passing attempts and their team's record.

Quarterback	Attempts	Rating	Team	Record
Peyton Manning	460	101.9	Colts	12-0
Tom Brady	458	96.9	Patriots	7-5
Matt Schaub	434	97.2	Texans	5-7
Jay Cutler	421	75.3	Bears	5-7
Aaron Rodgers	420	103.3	Packers	8-4
Tony Romo	414	96.3	Cowboys	8-4
Joe Flacco	406	84.6	Ravens	6-6
Kurt Warner	404	97.0	Cardinals	8-4
Brett Favre	403	108.5	Vikings	10-2
Drew Brees	392	111.3	Saints	12-0
				81-39

Rushing offenses

Teams	Attempts	Yards	Record
New York Jets	432	2,023	6-6
Cincinnati Bengals	406	1,607	9-3
Miami Dolphins	398	1,805	6-6
Carolina Panthers	378	1,823	5-7
New Orleans Saints	374	1,711	12-0
Tennessee Titans	372	1,989	5-7
Minnesota Vikings	351	1,483	10-2
New York Giants	351	1,495	7-5
Denver Broncos	342	1,507	8-4
Jacksonville Jaguars	339	1,356	7-5
			75-45

Chris Williams: Left Tackle

wiltfongjr — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:00:19 -0000

by Nam Y. Huh - AP

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Sunday saw the long anticipated debut of 2008 first round (#14 overall) draft pick Chris Williams at left tackle for the Bears. He had a chance to play against another member of that draft class, number 2 overall selection to the St. Louis Rams, defensive end Chris Long. Long picked up a sack, but overall, how did Williams fare? I'll try and dissect his game against the Rams and look at why he's a better fit on the left side rather than the right. First up I'll tackle the left side vs. the right...

Number one he's naturally left handed. Something you may not think makes much of a difference, but it's all in their stance. Players that line up on the left side of the offensive line use a left handed stance. The lefty three point stance is the exact opposite of the righty stance most of us that grew up playing football are accustomed to. Years back coaches would simply have players get in which ever three point stance they were most comfortable with. These days many high schools are teaching to change the stance depending on which side of the line you play.

The left handed stance is as follows; feet shoulder width apart, left foot slightly back (usually lined up with the right instep), left hand on the ground, right arm on right thigh. Yes that is Hall Of Fame left tackle Anthony Munoz over there in his left handed three point stance. The point of the left handed stance on the left side is it allows better pass blocking technique. When pass blocking you push off with your inside foot while reaching back with your outside foot. By starting this way your hips are in a better position as you don't have to turn them to get settled into proper pass blocking technique. With the hips in place, and already slightly facing the usually lined up outside pass rusher, you are in better position to deliver the hand punch as well. The less a player has to move to get in position the better.

Number two his athleticism makes him a better fit on the left side. So much emphasis is placed on protecting a right handed quarterbacks blind side, so you want a tackle with quicker feet on the left. The more mauling, road grader type is usually on the right side.

And number three, and most importantly, Williams is more comfortable on the left. At Vanderbilt he was on the left side, last year (when healthy) he was on the left side, and before Orlando Pace was signed this year his reps were on the left side.

When looking at the Rams game in detail, and trying to grade out his performance, keep in mind that I have no idea his exact responsibilities from play to play. Therefore my analysis could be slightly skewed. I made my best guess on his assignments based on my years playing, coaching, and watching football, but unless I'm invited into Halas Hall, I really have no way of knowing for sure. I graded him out using the most basic of grading systems, on every offensive snap I gave him a plus (did his job) or a minus (didn't do his job). When grading him out he ended up with a +46 out of 57 plays. I'm sure he'd be even harder on himself than I was, and I'm sure the coaches were harder on him as well.

I'll give some observations on his overall performance then I'll break down some individual plays.

The good thing is on all the plays I gave him a minus it was due to something that could be fixed through coaching. He was never out classed on any plays, never over powered, just simple youthful mistakes. He'll improve. He did get off balance at times and his hand punch could use some work, but overall it was a solid debut. I didn't see any tenacious aggression from Williams, but that isn't really his game, he more a technique guy that will shield off the defender. One constant throughout the game I picked up on was he didn't stay with his blocks. Most times the play was past him when his guy got off the block (so no harm done), but I'd like to see him lock on the defender til the whistle blows when ever possible. Nothing frustrates a defensive lineman more that a guy that is constantly in your face.

I won't go into every play in detail, but I'll pick out a few of the good and a few of the bad.

Play #1 - The 1st play of the game is a good snapshot of the kind of player Williams is. It had Williams seal the defensive end, James Hall, inside. It was only a two yard gain for Matt Forte, but Williams used good technique to seal his man.

Play #3 - The long pass to Devin Hester saw the Bears keep Greg Olsen in on the left side to help pass protect. They had a double tight formation as Kellen Davis also stayed in to help on the right side. It was a fake counter to Matt Forte (with Frank Omiyale pulling to the right) so Williams had to read the defensive line. Williams first set up as if to block the DE, but when the DE went outside to Olsen he moved in and took the DT which Olin Kreutz passed off to him.

Plays #6-#8 - On 3 consecutive plays on the goal line Williams drove James Hall back into the end zone. On 1st down Hall made the tackle after slipping off the Williams block and because of the slow cut back by Forte (but Williams should have sustained the block). On 2nd down Forte again ran inside but for no gain. Then on 3rd down the Bears ran off left tackle and Forte scored practically untouched.

Play #12 - On 1st and 10 after the long play to Earl Bennett the Bears again passed and the Rams ran a stunt. The DE went inside, and Williams passed him off to Omiyale, then LB James Laurinaitis looped outside and Williams picked him up. Good awareness by Williams.

Play #24 - On a 3rd and 4 Jay Cutler rolled out to his right and Williams only had to cut off his man from backside pursuit, he missed. He tried to reach block him to seal him off but he couldn't get there, he ran with him but couldn't keep up. I think he should have cut him initially or at least got into the defenders legs since it was a hard block to execute. His man had a long chase and never made it to Cutler, but Williams has to find a way to cut him off.

Play #27 - This was the 1st down end around to Devin Hester. Williams looked lost on the play. He immediately went to the 2nd level looking for a LB, but ended up watching LB Paris Lenon run by him and make the tackle on Hester.

Play #29 - This was the sack by Long. Earl Bennett motioned from wide left towards the right and it appeared he was supposed to chip Long before he turned back to the left sideline. Bennett was wide open on the out route, but Cutler had no time. If Williams was expecting the chip it makes sense why he was beat to the outside. Williams set up and looked as if he were expecting Long to come inside, if Bennett hits him it pushes Long to an inside move. Cutler may have snapped the ball a split second too early. Either way Williams can't get beat and should have recognized the missed chip block, a better hand punch would have left him in a better position. (I really liked the design of this play and expect to see Chicago run it this Sunday)

Play #35 - On 1st and 10 they ran Kahlil Bell around the left side for 7 yards, Williams and Olsen executed a combo block on the DE, then after the defender was secured Williams slipped off to block a LB.

Play #51 - This is the 8 yard run by Forte that the FOX crew replayed with a spotlight on Williams. Williams again made a textbook seal block on Long, he didn't drive him back very far, but simply got his hands on Long, moved his feet, and sealed him from the play.

If Williams gets the nod at LT again this week he'll have a different challenge against the Packers and the 3-4 defense. He'll have more reads to make as the Packers will zone blitz from time to time. He'll be matched up with an outside linebacker as much as, if not more than he'll be on a defensive end. It will be a good test for Williams and the Bears offense.

Another Former NFL Coach Weighs in on Cutler

Dane Noble — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:04:55 -0000

This time, it's Brian Billick. Billick was on the Waddle and Silvy Show today, sharing his thoughts on Bears QB Jay Cutler. I have to wonder how many people who have opinions on Cutler actually watch the games, versus just the highlight (and lowlight) reels.

Some quotes from Coach Billick after the jump...

"I'm not here to make excuses for Jay Cutler; he has to play better. What I see in Jay Cutler is someone who is trying to force the ball and trying to make all the plays to make up for some of the things that are going on for the Bears."

"To just simply say Jay Cutler is not in the right system, that's not what I'm saying, and I don't think it will make a difference to just simply bring in a different set of coaches. But it's the system -- when I say that, I mean having the right players offensively, defensively, and the way it all comes together.''

"I mean, we're all doing the same thing," he said. "We really are. You're going to have to show me a system, a play-calling sequence, a play that once someone is successful with something within your system, we coaches look at, analyze it, tear it apart, rebuild it in our own way and take credit for it."

Billick was asked if Cutler's mechanical issues disturbed him.

"No, they are the same mechanical things he did last year when threw for over 4,500 yards and had a great season,'' Billick said. "He's a gifted QB, he's a smart QB. Obviously, there has to be a meshing of what you do with the talent that you have around you. Right now, he just doesn't seem comfortable. I don't think it necessarily has anything to do with the system. It's not a good system, it's not a bad system, it's just not a fluid system right now with the moving parts that it has.''

Asked if a new offensive system would fix the Bears' problem, Billick said no.

Let me just say this: If the Bears had a decent offensive line, none of this would be an issue. The Bears have absolutely no running game, and it's hard to have success setting up the pass when defenses don't respect the run.

If the Bears did have an OL, they could

a) Use the run to set up the pass (Cutler is a great play-action QB),

b) Give Cutler time to at least set his feet on a 3-step drop,

c) Allow for down-the-field routes to develop, thus utilizing Cutler's arm strength and Hester's/ Knox's speed,

and when "c" occurs, we'd see

d) Olsen have more mismatches underneath because either Hester or Knox would draw a double team, and

e) Forte have more opportunities on swing passes.

But, none of this is a possibility when the OL can't handle their business. But hey, thanks Coach Billick for giving us your insight.

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 13

TJ Johnson — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Ed Zurga - AP

4 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall (15) is chased by Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Travis Daniels (34) while running for a short gain during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

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"Stats washed over The Dude...darker than a black steer's tookus on a moonlight prairie night..." Sam Elliott

In almost every Hollywood movie there is a moment that comes, about three-fourths through the movie, in which the hero or heroin appears defeated. This moment is called the "dark moment," and if you're paying attention, it appears in almost all stories. The great mythologist, Joseph Campbell, wrote a book called The Hero With a Thousand Faces, in which he described the hero's journey, and briefly, the dark moment:

Beyond the threshold, then, the hero journeys through a world of unfamiliar yet strangely intimate forces, some of which severely test him...(page 246)

For modern day storytellers, this is the moment in which everything appears bleak and all is lost. In the greatest movie ever made, The Big Lebowski (Citizen Kane, stay down), the dark moment occurs when The Dude is drugged by Jackie Treehorn (don't ask me for the rest of the plot, or you'll be here for hours).

Why all this talk about dark moments? Week 13 of the NFL. Aside from the normal unlucky-number reference, week 13 in the NFL was a dark moment for many teams. Some of them still have the ability to break through this dark threshold (Ravens, Cowboys, and Patriots). Others are headed for the abyss (Titans, Texans, and Falcons).

In what could have been the darkest moment of the Broncos' season, they decided to summon some inner-strength, face their own December demons, and emerge battle-tested on the other side.

Welcome to another edition of the Stats That Don't Lie, your own weekly Hero With a 1,000 Stats. These are the stats that won't refuse the hero's call. They are your statistical elixir. As always they include Turnovers, Field Position, Time of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

A little note before our we enter the fray. I've been asked why I use these stats and why not other stats that have an even higher correlation to winning, like passing yards/drive or point differential. Although I do spend time on these other stats, and they are extremely useful and predictive in nature, I'm not as interested in them at the individual game level as markers or plot points. That's because I'm still interested in a good story. And I've found the four stats that I keep track of--when told together--weave one hell of a story in a language most fans understand. And in the rare instances in which they don't, I'm even more interested in telling that compelling narrative. And it's during these times I can bring in other stats.

The View From High Up

Here I usually put up a graph showing the turnover margin from each game, but let's do something a little different this time. Let's also see what the games would have looked like if we included turnovers on downs:

The orange bars represent the recorded turnover margins. These are the turnover margins that include fumbles and interceptions. Notice that only the New England game did the Broncos lose the turnover margin and win the game. Previously, I "normalized" Orton's Hail Mary from that game to show an even-turnover margin. I decided to leave it in this week since a few comments have been made that I could just as easily "normalize" other types of interceptions like tipped balls, etc. While I think everyone would agree that a Hail Mary is in a different category altogether, there is some validity to the point. So I let it ride. It doesn't materially change the point, however. When the Broncos lose the turnover battle, they generally lose the game.

The blue bars represent the turnover margin to include turnovers on downs. This changes things only slightly, but it's an important distinction, and worth a few words. Some stats geeks have argued for decades that turnovers on downs should be included in the turnover statistics. The thinking is that no matter the method of turning the ball over (fumble, interception, or downs), it still has the same basic result: the drive is dead. Clearly, there is a higher value in an interception or fumble because of the inherent possibility of a score, but a turnover on downs stops your drive just the same.

Why do I bring this subject up this week? Because it helps explain the Denver-Kansas City turnover margin. From the box score, the turnover margin looks even. But everyone who watched the game can tell you that, in reality, the Chiefs came out in the 2nd half, in their own territory, and on 4th down, attempted a fake punt (which was open, by the way). There was a turnover on downs and Denver was sitting pretty inside the opponent's territory. This would have been no different than if an fumble or interception had occurred.

Later in the game, the Chiefs again went for it on 4th down and failed. When you add these two additional "turnovers" to the total, Denver came out of the game plus 2. This explains a lot (not all), and certainly helps to explain the larger margin of victory. As Paul Harvey would say, "And now you know the rest of the story."

There are other issues in the Broncos-Chiefs game to discuss, but we'll put those aside for the moment to get into the meat of the rankings.

Team Rankings

Here's where the Broncos stack up against the rest of the league after week 13. Keep in mind these are averages/game:

You will immediately notice I added another boon this week for your amusement and education (what else is there?). This week I included average turnover margin/game. There was a reason for this. I wanted you to be able to see the discrepancy between a good team and a team masquerading as a good team.

Two examples will drive the point home. First, notice New Orleans. While they are ranked only 14th with respect to giveaways/game, the are ranked 2nd when it comes to turnover margin. What does this mean? Simply that, although they are giving the ball away regularly, they are getting the ball back in spades. Conversely, let's look at the Dallas Cowboys. They are ranked 8th in giveaways/game, but 17th in turnover margin/game. So we can say the exact opposite about the Cowboys. They aren't giving the ball up (on average) as much as the rest of the teams are, but their defense isn't creating opportunities either. America's team? Only if Americans like facades.

The Broncos continue to get by with a rather pedestrian 3rd-downconversion rate, at 35.12%/game. The league average for all teams is through 13 weeks is 37.80%. While this will beat the Chiefs and the Raiders (maybe), it simply will not get it done against the Colts (more on this later) or in the playoffs--unless the defense simply dominates and turnovers continue to come Denver's way.

On the positive side, Denver is doing a better job with field position and their time of possession average increased since they played ahead the entire second half and killed the clock by running Moreno.

Notice who have taken over the top stop in giveaways. It's the team quarterbacked by Philip Rivers. Want to start a 7-game winning streak? Don't turn the ball over. Want to win some close game that you shouldn't? Don't turn the ball over. Want the mainstream media to anoint you a contender (go ahead and crown their @#%!) for the 100th time? Don't turn the ball over. After week 5, San-Diego was ranked 22nd in giveaways, averaging 1.67/game. Now they are ranked 1st with .91/game. They aren't measurably better all of the sudden (no one in the NFL is). They aren't David Blane or Criss Angel, or even Siegfried and Roy (well, perhaps they are that). It's just that they have stopped turning the ball over.

Also, please stop thinking that the Jacksonville Jaguars are a playoff team. Right now they are simply playing one on TV. Their average turnover margin/game is -.33, and let me pull out another stat on you--points differential. Jacksonville's current point differential is -48. That's right. A team with a winning record is -48. This trend can't continue. Their points/points allowed ratio is .83. Historically (over the last 25 years), this ratio suggests they are a 6-10 team. Since they already have 7 wins, they are playing with house money. I believe they are--in the immortal words of one of the finest poets of our generation--Kip Winger, "headed for a heartbreak."

Picking Super Bowl teams isn't really fun until Indianapolis and New Orleans lose, so let me throw out a few more controversial choices. How about the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots. Both teams rank very well in all four categories, and speaking of points differential, the Packers have a points/points allowed ratio of 1.41. The Patriots, despite all of the crying by the main stream media, have a ratio of 1.46. There have been many Super Bowl Champions that have ratios at or below this ratio, including the 2007 Giants, the 2006 Colts, and 2003 Patriots. The highest ratio of points/points allowed in the last 25 years? The 1985 Chicago Bears with a ratio of 2.3.

Speaking of the Bears, it's now time I get in my weekly obligatory Jay Cutler blast. Once again I'd like to point out that Chicago is ranked 1st in field position. Imagine the kind of damage they could do if they had a QB who wasn't chain smoking interceptions.

Week 13 Summaries

There are a few games worth mention in week 13, but let's exhaust our analysis of the Broncos and Chiefs first. Already, we've noted that the turnover margin wasn't reflective of the true turnover margin in the game, since KC had two additional turnovers on downs. We can also look at the context of each turnover as well.

Denver turned the ball over on its first possession. Statistically, they were down minus-1 in the turnover battle early in the first quarter. Big freakin' deal. As we know, a turnover committed early in the game can be easily overcome. In this case, the first drive was simply 1 out of 15 drives that Denver had in the game. They scored on 7 others.

But it was even more interesting was how quickly Denver scored. Denver's average number of plays per scoring drive was just 6 plays. And Denver's average yards gained/play on these scoring drives was 6.5. Most of this was done on the ground. They were shredding the Chiefs--in a hurry. Combine this with Denver's points off of turnovers, 13 (including turnovers on downs), and you have the makings for a nice victory.

This does helps all of us swallow the 3rd-down efficiency pill a little easier. Even though Denver was only 30.77% on 3rd downs, they only had a total of five 3rd downs during their 7 scoring drives. They were making quick work of the Chiefs' defense.

Also of note is Denver's total domination with respect to the time of possession. Don't let this fool you. Much of this stat came in the 2nd half as Denver was simply killing the clock. In the 4th quarter alone, Denver dominated the time of possession 11:32 to 3:28. In this case, the time of was truly a reflection of Denver having the lead going into the 2nd half.

There are two other questions remaining from week 13. How did the Saints escape with a win in Washington? And how did Oakland beat the Steelers? Both questions have the same answer, and let's just be honest, stats won't make you feel any better about it.

But let's point out the obvious. First, the Steelers and Redskins did lose the turnover battle. In addition, the Steelers and Redskins were pitiful in the Red Zone. The Steelers were 2 for 5 and the Redskins were 3 for 7. Neither of these stats helped either team. However, with the game on the line, each team had the ability to win the game. And here's where one of the truths of football rears its ugly head:

Sometimes crap just happens.

That's right. How else do you explain what happened at the end of both of these games? Players make plays? Well, I guess if we are being technical. I was listening to the post game radio show on the Raiders' radio network (a mortal sin), and Gradkowski essentially said he was just throwing the ball up for grabs and knew it had a good chance of being picked off . Then a few plays later, the refs call a personal foul penalty on a seemingly normal hit, giving the Raiders 1st and goal. I suppose we should all be happy, for it it helped the Broncos in their quest for the playoffs, and it put the Raiders one step further away from being able to draft Ndamukong Suh. Still one has to wonder if the Raiders would be smart enough to draft him if he was available. Perhaps they would need to see a 40 time. It's always good to know the Raiders are not on the hero's journey.

The Redskins didn't fair much better. An interception-fumble-TD return by the Saints on 3rd-and-26? Seriously? A missed 23-yard field goal? Sometimes crap just happens, but it seems to happen to the Redskins a little bit more often, although after the game, Drew Brees credited Karma. Oh, well, one man's Karma is another person's crap.

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

4 teams had 0 turnovers. 4 won (100%); For the season, 60/74 (81%)
10 teams had 1 turnover. 7 won (70%); For the season, 64/109 (59%)
10 teams had 2 turnovers. 2 won (20%); For the season, 48/110 (44%)
6 teams had 3 turnovers. 3 won (50%); For the season, 16/56 (29%)
1 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 4/25 (16%)
1 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 0/10 (0%)

Week 13 - Big Picture

The team that won the turnover battle won 13 of 16 games played (81%).
In the previous category, remove the ties (1 game) and this changes to 75%
The team that won the time of possession battle won 9 of the 16 games played (56%).
The team that had better third-down efficiency won 12 of the 16 games played (75%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 10 of the 16 games played (63%).
There were 3 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In all 3, the same team won on the scoreboard (100%). For the season, this stat is 62 out of 67 games. In only 3 games, however, has a team won outright in all four categories (no ties in the turnover battle) and lost.
The winning teams this week averaged 1.25 turnovers, 31:43 in time of possession, 40.45% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 30.23-yard line.

Top 5 in Week 13:

Top 5 in giveaways: New York Jets, Oakland, Philadelphia, and San Diego tied with 0.
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.Dallas 2.Jacksonville 3.Cincinnati 4.Denver 5.Green Bay
Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.Indianapolis 2.Washington 3.Dallas 4.New York Jets 5. Tennessee
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.Saint Louis 2.Denver 3.Cincinnati 4.Green Bay 5.Pittsburgh

Running Totals, Season (through 13 weeks):

192 games have been played this season
80.73% were won by the team with less turnovers (counting ties as wins)
66.67% with a better time of possession
66.67% by the team who won on 3rd down
70.31% by the team that won the field-position battle.

13-week League Averages:

13-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.70

13-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:11 (thanks to numerous OT games)

13-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.80%

13-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.73 yard line

The Look Ahead

Looking ahead to Indianapolis, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd-Down Efficiency

Denver 1.50 30:04 28.74 35.12%

Indianapolis 1.33 28:21 28.42 49.96%

I don't need to tell you what you already know, but Denver is going to struggle to win this game. Indy's speedy defense is built for 3rd downs. Peyton Manning and the Colts don't need time of possession and field position to win. They are last in the league in number of drives, but first in the league in yards/drive. The last thing the Colts do is waste time. Additionally, they are deadly running the no-huddle offense, which has vexed Denver to no end this year.

Most impressive is the Colts on 3rd down. There was really only one game this year in which the Colts had a bad day on 3rd downs. It was in week 3 against Arizona, and the Colts still won 31-10. However, the game is instructive. The Cardinals did a pretty good job in the first half of not giving away their defense at the line of scrimmage and stacking their linebackers to hide their blitzes. Manning had a bit of difficulty calling his audibles properly. Later in the game, Manning started using quick counts to counteract this strategy. Still, the tape would be useful to the Broncos so that they don't stand stationary in their standard 5-2 sets.

If there ever was a time for heroes, it is now. This will be an important test for the new Broncos and their new 3-4. In past years, Denver has been destroyed by the Colts--except the year the Colts decided to rest Manning. But just like winning in December in Kansas City, this Broncos' team could care less about what happened under Mike Shanahan. Perhaps this version of the Broncos will continue to buck the trends and return to Denver after slaying the monstrous Colts' offense.

It would be a great story, indeed. And the dark moment of Denver's 4-game losing streak would simply fade into myth.

Hail, Kyle Orton!!

Last stat: 50% (percentage chance that you can beat Dallas Clark in a 40-yard dash).

Bears Injury Updates: Briggs, Hester, Cutler, Pace

Dane Noble — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:16:31 -0000

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There are a few different ways that NFL teams get to evaluate their depth at different positions, and the Chicago Bears have been presented those chances as the 2009 season dwindles down.

During a slide of disappointment like the Bears have seen, many teams like to turn their attention to younger players, as to see what sort of future they might have the following season. Also, injuries always occur, and backups get to see the field to prove that they deserve a roster spot.

Here are some updates that might prove to present interesting scenarios for the Bears this week and beyond:

Lance Briggs is set to return this week at WLB... he missed last week with a knee injury and hip pointer. His backup, Jamar Williams, had a career day last week against the Rams. Does this mean that Williams will sit versus the Packers, or does he slide over to the strong side in place of Nick Roach, who is also having a strong season?

Orlando Pace is also set to return this week. Chris Williams slid over from the right side to the left in Pace's absence, and Lovie Smith sang the praises of Williams following his first game at LT. If Pace is good to go, which it looks like he will be, do the Bears return him to his starting LT role, or do they continue with Williams and Shaffer?

Smith has repeatedly said that they will field the team who is most likely to help win the game, so we'll see what combo at the OT positions they will go with. Pace said that he feels like he can play, and hasn't shown any interest in retiring. He still has 2 years on his contract after 2009.

Jay Cutler (hand), Matt Forte (hand), and Devin Hester (calf) are all expected to have full participation Wednesday.

Horse Tracks - 12/9/09 - Broncos Lose Harris For the Season

John Bena — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:04:49 -0000

Yes, the loss of Ryan Harris is unfortunate, but certainly not unexpected. Perhaps the most important asset an offensive tackle has are his feet and footwork. That is what makes Ryan Clady so effective. An injury, such as a dislocated big-toe, can be a huge problem. Credit to Harris for trying to gut it out. Now the burden falls to Tyler Polumbus. He's played the majority of games the past 5 weeks and has improved as time has gone on. The time is now for Polumbus, who grew up in Denver and went to Colorado, to lay-claim to a future spot on the Broncos offensive line.

DB.com - Warriors of a Winter Food Drive(Zach Eisendrath and Chris Gentisalvo)
That tradition received a reward on Tuesday morning when Darrell Reid, Wesley Woodyard, Broncos cheerleaders Romi Bean and Jessica Flores and Broncos mascot Miles attended the students' lunch hour to congratulate them for their efforts.

DB.com - Holidays Come Early(Gary Caldwell)
There were plenty of smiles and full carts as the holidays came a little early Monday night.

DP - Broncos OT Harris out for season
The Broncos will play the rest of the season, including any playoff games, without starting right tackle Ryan Harris.

DP - How about Broncos' McDaniels for NFL coach of the year?(Mark Kiszla)
For everybody who cursed this young football coach for trading Jay Cutler, condemned his draft picks as madness or demanded he be fired before his first game on the Broncos' sideline, it's time to consider calling Josh McDaniels a new name:

DP - Broncos use Champ to be champ of special teams(Lindsay Jones)
No, that wasn't an error on the play-by-play report from the Broncos' 44-13 victory at Kansas City on Sunday. That really was Champ Bailey — yes, the likely future Hall of Fame cornerback — running downfield on a kickoff and making a solo tackle on a third-quarter kick return.

DP - Broncos' Prater has a big leg up on 2008(Jeff Legwold)
It's a simple, proven formula. To play the kind of field-position football the Broncos want to play down the stretch, it will start with their kicker, Matt Prater.

DP - Moreno looking good for the long run(Jim Armstrong)
This just in. Knowshon Moreno, after a preseason that included the obligatory contract holdout and a knee injury, is on pace to run for 1,000 yards.

DP - Harris out: What it means for the line(Lindsay Jones)
There is no doubt the Broncos will miss right tackle Ryan Harris, who is not going to be able to play the rest of the season because of the serious injury to his big right toe.

Rams Chris Long among the better pass rushers from last two drafts

VanRam — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 15:10:39 -0000

One of the few highlight for the St. Louis Rams to come out of their loss to the Chicago Bears this weekend was Chris Long's sack of Bears' QB Jay Cutler. That sack was Long's fourth of the season, and with that the second overall pick from the 2008 draft has now matched his rookie season sack total. If you can cut through all the things that infuriate you about the Rams, it does genuniely seem as though Chris Long is improving.

I bring up Long because I came across a pretty interesting stat from Peter King this morning (yeah, I know).

In the past two NFL drafts, teams have used 20 picks in the first two rounds trying to find, at least in part, players to bring the heat on the quarterback. Early results -- which can be dangerous because of the adjustment from college to the pros -- say the crop has been an immense failure.

Immediately Chris Long came to mind. Long leads that group of 20 with his 8 career sacks, but Washington's Brian Orakpo is climbing up the leader board with the seven sacks he's collected this year, his rookie season. King's statement doesn't give you the full picture as some of those guys are playing well, Brian Cushing and Clay Matthews for example. However, his point - that these guys were drafted to disrupt QBs - can't be ignored.

The five quarterbacks taken in the first round of the last two drafts: all are starting.

Notes, Scribbles, and Things Jotted Down: Rams Edition

Dane Noble — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 14:21:09 -0000

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The Chicago Bears are an ideal example of how a team will perform when it has no offensive line. There is talent at the other positions on offense- enough to be able to do some damage- but it all starts in the trenches.

Also, there are plenty of folks who like to hate Jay Cutler. From the media constantly showing replays that cast him in an unfortunate light, to random people who aren't even Bears or Broncos fans. They like to root against the guy, because he doesn't fit the mold that they believe a QB should fit in.

- Opening kickoff return: Did Rashied Davis show good hands by being able to regain control of the ball he bobbled, or was it bad hands for bobbling it in the first place? I say the former... simply because there hasn't been many times we could say "Nice hands Rashied!"

- Matt Forte fumbled on the second play from scrimmage, but came back on the next drive and scored a TD. Does the TD make up for the fumble? Maybe in some circumstances, but not last night.

- Say what you will about Bob Babich, but to have all 3 starting LBs go down with an injury and have the backups fill in the way Jamar Williams and Nick Roach did, he must be doing something right. Those guys looked damn good last night. Honorable mention to Hunter Hillenmeyer: He looks like he tried.

- Devin Hester is a much better WR this year than in 2008, and hopefully he'll keep progressing at that same rate next year. He seemed to play more aggressively last night, and showed great hands.

- Devin Aromashodu has got to step up when called on. You can't follow a big play like the one to Hester with a friggin' easy drop. Definitely needs more live reps.

- Johnny Knox also showed flashes of aggressiveness, especially when he drew the pass interference call against the Rams in the end zone in Q1.

- New turf: Forte falls.

- Kahlil Bell saw action early in the game. Typically when the coaches want to spell Forte, we see the backup later in the game. I guess because Bell broke that one run that one time, he's going to be considered a compliment to Forte now.

- Rams 3rd down/1 yard: Converted. I told the guy next to me at the bar that the Bears have been terrible on getting off the field on 3rd down this year. 3 plays later: 3rd/ 4... QB sack! That's how you do it.

- Not a good night for special teams. Maynard's shanks, two penalties, allowing long returns...

- Everydamnthing is fantasy football related in the sports bars. I went to a different spot than usual, but the same old same old. FF makes everyone experts. And I hate seeing people go from television to television rooting for different offensive players from each team. Just like a couple weeks ago, when Forte scored, I heard some folks start cheering. I thought they might be Bears fans. Nope.

- I didn't have sound, but it really seemed like the Bears didn't have their shiat together at the end of the first half. I mean, we had sixty something seconds to try and at least get in FG range... why didn't we try anything downfield?

- On my note sheet, I now have a tally section for each time an OLineman gets toasted. Why? Because some people seem to have different opinions of the OL than I do. And this was just watching the game live... I'm sure I missed plenty of others: Kreutz: III, Shaffer: IIII, Omiyale: II, CWill: II, Garza: I

- Turner loves pulling Omiyale, and I see why. The guy can move pretty well.

- The Bears defense looked great against a bad offense.

- Chris Williams will make a very good LT for us next year.

NFL Picks & Pans: Week 13

Bruce Raffel — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 15:44:17 -0000

After getting off to a poor start by picking (and hoping) the Buffalo Bills would defend their "home" turf up in Toronto over the New York Jets, perhaps I can right the ship the rest of the weekend, like I did last week when I hit on 12 15 games! I'll make all the picks today and then "Pick & Pan" the Baltimore Ravens at the Green Bay Packers' Monday Night Football tilt in tomorrow's post. So let's get to it:

Steelers over Raiders: With or without Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh will win this game at home over Oakland, which will have trouble traveling cross country to go into a tough place to play.

Saints over Redskins: This is probably going to be a tougher game than one might expect as the Washington defense is better than their record states. Their offense, however, is as bad as their record and New Orleans is as good as their record and one of the top two teams in the NFL, in my humble opinion.

Colts over Titans: Tennessee's amazing turnaround under Vince Young comes to a screeching halt as their past five wins have not and will not be extended to include an undefeated Indianapolis team, whom I see finishing as such.

Bears over Rams: Once again, the mere mention of St. Louis having Kyle Boller at QB is good enough for me to take Chicago, as poorly as Jay Cutler has played. This game might have ten interceptions between the two teams!

Bengals over Lions: Cincinnati gets a breather this week at home and Detroit begins to fade back to 2008 status.

Panthers over Buccaneers: The only reason I'm picking Carolina is for the home field advantage, as I would take Tampa Bay if the game was down south due to both teams disappointing seasons.

Patriots over Dolphins: I was tempted to put this game as an upset win for Miami, but somehow I just can't see New England losing two in a row and tighten up the race in the AFC East.

Eagles over Falcons: The loss of both Matt Ryan and Michael Turner plus the dome weather factor makes me think Donovan McNabb and Philadelphia have a great day in Atlanta (McNabb is my fantasy team's QB!).

Chiefs over Broncos: Here we go with my "Upset Special Pick of the Week" as I see Kansas City playing Denver tough in their home crib and coming away with the upset win to bring the Ravens closer to the Wild Card spot.

Jaguars over Texans: I'm actually rooting for Houston to go into Jacksonville to pull off the upset and push the Ravens even tighter into the Wild Card race, but can't see the Jags tanking so bad at home. Or can they?

Chargers over Browns: What? Are you kidding me? No.

Giants over Cowboys: As bad as New York has played lately, the Cowboys have done pretty much the same other than an easy win over Oakland on Thanksgiving Day. New York is playing for their playoff lives and get the 'boys in rough weather conditions at home after the snow and cold came to the area yesterday.

Seahawks over 49ers: While I think that San Francisco is the better team, they seem to be nowhere as good on the road as they've been at home, while I think Seattle takes this division game at home regardless of their record.

Vikings over Cardinals (Sunday night): A great game and perhaps Arizona can play a perfect game on both sides of the ball to win. However, I think Minnesota's a much more balanced team offensively and defensively, and oh yeah, they have these two guys named Adrian and Brett who have done pretty well so far in '09.

Last week: 12-3

Season record: 119-55

The Vikings Red Zone Review, Sponsored by Comcast

Gonzo — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 14:34:56 -0000

More photos » by Jerry Holt - AP

10 days ago: Minnesota Vikings running back Chester Taylor (29) scores in the second quarter past Chicago Bears' Danieal Manning (38) during an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 29, 2009, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Star Tribune, Jerry Holt)

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Since we're going to be, as the kids say, waiting all day for Sunday night, let's kill some time by taking a final look back at the Vikings' complete and utter domination of the Chicago Bears by reviewing their performance in the Red Zone. And, as always, the Vikings Red Zone Review is brought to you by the good folks at Comcast. Comcast brings you the NFL Red Zone channel every week, and it's your way to keep in touch with all the biggest plays from every NFL game week in and week out. It's great for fantasy players, or for the late games when you're not sure which game you want to view while celebrating the Vikings' latest conquest. The Red Zone Channel is your season ticket for every single NFL game, and nobody brings it to you like the folks at Comcast.

What kind of performance did the Vikings put together in the red zone last weekend? Let's have a look and find out.

Vikings Red Zone trips - 6
Vikings Red Zone scores - 6 (4 TD, 2 FG)
Red Zone touchdown percentage - 66%

A pretty good performance for the Vikings in the red zone last week, but it still could have been better.

After an Adrian Peterson fumble halted a promising opening drive, the Bears and Vikings exchanged three and outs, and the Bears punted again, pinning the Vikings on their own 4-yard line. From there, the Vikings offense went to work. Brett Favre converted a big third down when he hit Sidney Rice for 14 yards on 3rd and 6. He continued to spread the ball around, hitting Chester Taylor twice for 27 yards out of the backfield. Peterson mixed in a 15-yard run and an 8-yard run, and Favre converted another big third down by hitting Bernard Berrian to take the Vikings down to the Chicago 6. After some questionable play calling, including Favre taking a 14-yard sack on first and goal from the 1 (following a Chicago PI penalty in the end zone), the first play of the second quarter saw Favre drill a bullet to the 2009 Offensive Rookie of the Year. . .that's Percy Harvin. . .and the Vikings went up 7-0. The Minnesota drive went 96 yards in 13 plays, and took 6:52 to complete.

After the Bears managed to luck their way into their one touchdown drive of the afternoon, the Vikings went to work again from their own 20. Harvin didn't get to return the kickoff because of a touchback, so the Vikings let him start the drive off with a 35-yard run to put the ball into Chicago territory. Favre then hit Berrian for 7, Rice for 11, and Harvin for 4 to move the ball to the Chicago 10. After a three-yard run by Peterson, Favre rolled to his right, dumped one off to Chester Taylor, and #29 did the rest as he dove into the end zone for another Minnesota touchdown. The extra point put the Vikings up 14-3. That Minnesota drive moved 80 yards in 8 plays, taking 4:06 off the clock.

The Bears fumbled the ensuing kickoff, which the Vikings turned into a 52-yard Ryan Longwell field goal. On the Bears next drive, Chicago's awesome, incredible superstar quarterback Jay Cutler threw a pass that got picked off by Cedric Griffin. The Vikings couldn't take advantage, and punted the ball back to Chicago. Cutler's second INT of the afternoon came on the subsequent drive, on a pass that was deflected by E.J. Henderson into the arms of Jared Allen. The Vikings started out at their own 30, and Favre immediately hit Visanthe Shiancoe for 21 yards to move the ball into Chicago territory. He then hit Berrian twice for 16 yards, and then lofted a beautiful pass to Rice, who got pushed out of bounds at the Chicago 2. After a touchdown pass from Favre to Shiancoe was nullified for Bryant McKinnie being downfield, Shank managed to get the touchdown anyway, as Favre found him on third and goal from the 6 for the score. The drive moved 70 yards in 7 plays, and only took 40 seconds to accomplish. It also put Minnesota ahead 24 to 7 as they went to the locker room.

After a Chicago field goal gave the Bears their final points of the afternoon, the Vikings took over at their own 33, as the Bears decided they were too scared to kick to Percy Harvin. Harvin again made them pay for it, catching passes of 12 and 22 yards from Favre to move the ball into Chicago territory. After a fumble by Peterson that was correctly challenged by Childress, Favre hit Shiancoe for 19 yards, and appeared to have another touchdown pass to Chester Taylor that was taken off the board by an unnecessary holding penalty downfield on Berrian. From there, the flags started to fly, and the referees desperately tried to level the playing field for the completely overmatched Bears. After all was said and done, the Vikings had to settle for a 37-yard Ryan Longwell field goal to make the score 27-7. The 12-play, 48-yard drive took 4:59 off of the clock.

Big third down conversions were the story of Minnesota's next drive, as Minnesota started from their own 27. You know it's going to be a productive drive when even Naufahu Tahi gets into the business of converting third downs, which he did with an 8-yard reception. On the next third down, Favre hit Bernard Berrian for 18 yards. Then, on another third down play, Favre found Percy Harvin for an outstanding 31-yard catch that put the rookie over the 100-yard mark for the first time in his young career. Unfortunately, the drive stalled when the Vikings reached the 2, and they had to settle for a 20-yard Longwell field goal. The drive needed to eat up the clock, and the drive did just that, as they took 7:36 to move the ball 71 yards in 13 plays. It also made the score 30 to 7 in favor of the Vikings.

Favre only completed one pass on his final drive of the afternoon, hitting Berrian again for eight yards. The rest of the drive was the Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor show, as the best 1-2 running back tandem in the NFL combined for 35 yards on 6 carries on the drive. A big pass interference penalty aided the Vikings as well, giving them 25 yards and putting the ball deep into Chicago territory. Harvin even mixed another carry in for 10 yards, and that one put the Vikings inside the Chicago red zone again. To cap off what had been a fairly tough afternoon, Peterson walked in from five yards out for a touchdown. Chris Kluwe, unfortunately, bobbled the hold on the extra point, so the final margin of victory for Minnesota ended up being 36-10. The final Viking drive went 68 yards in 8 plays, taking another 5:09 off of the clock.

So, to update our tally, for the season the Vikings' offense has entered the opposing red zone on 43 occasions. They've come away with 23 touchdowns (53.5%), 14 Ryan Longwell field goals (32.5%), and have only come away scoreless six times (14%). The Bears only entered the red zone once. . .and they were lucky to have that many. . .and managed one field goal. So, the Vikings have allowed their opponents to enter the red zone 24 times this season, allowing them to score 10 touchdowns (41.7%), as well as eight field goals (33.3%). On six occasions (25%), Minnesota's opponents have left the red zone empty-handed.

Here's hoping that the Vikings can improve on all of those figures during Sunday night's clash with the Arizona Cardinals.