SB Nation - Elvis Dumervil

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 13:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

4 days ago: Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels, right, talks to quarterback Kyle Orton during a break in the action during the third quarter of of an NFL football game against the Oakland Raiders in Denver on Sunday, Dec. 20, 2009. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. I am writing this lead-in on Black Monday, and I'm still not in a very good mood, as you can imagine. I'm going to try to make the best of it, and drop a good column despite the bad feelings. We'll see, because I still haven't watched this infuriating game a second time yet. No guarantees. For now, let's get on with it. Ready..... BEGIN!!!!

1. So, I am not too thrilled, as you might imagine. I don't think anybody particularly is, but this game solidified a thought in my mind about the Broncos, that I've been close to, but never fully there this season. It kind of makes me feel like a fool actually, because way back, when I was the only credible analyst in the world predicting 11-5 for the Broncos, my main reason for thinking it is what I had wrong.

The Broncos offensive line is the weakness of the team, and I thought it was the strength. When I envisioned beating Baltimore and Pittsburgh, it was because I thought the Broncos would be able to block them. I've frequently observed the struggles of one guy or another, but the real conclusion we need to reach is that this group leaves a lot to be desired. Nice Thing to Say About Jay Cutler Alert: I think we all underestimated how much his quick release, mobility, and pocket awareness helped prevent sacks last year.

This year, they've given up sacks at key times, often when it's been obvious that they had to throw the ball. That has been the minor part of the problem. The major part is that they've struggled to drive-block all season, and lately, they've struggled to effectively zone-block, too. Russ Hochstein is terrible, and really hasn't been any kind of improvement over Ben Hamilton. Casey Wiegmann has regressed this year from his previously high standard and gets pushed backward too much. I haven't been too thrilled with the play of Chris Kuper over the last month either, and Tyler Polumbus has proven to be just a backup and special teams player.

I think this season turned when Ryan Harris got hurt. He's one of the best RTs in the NFL, and between he, Kuper, and often Daniel Graham, the Broncos had a good ability to open holes in the running game to the right, outside. Now, the Broncos get pushed backward too much, and are very susceptible to run blitzing against their zone schemes. In the short term, they can help themselves with plays like backside smoke screens off outside play action, inviting/exploiting the run blitzing. In the long term, though, they interior of the line badly needs to be upgraded, because the Broncos will always struggle against physical fronts if it doesn't.

Now, the Broncos do still control their own destiny, even after losing two in a row. They can beat Philadelphia too, if they can protect Kyle Orton, and run the ball effectively. I really think that the Eagles' tendencies toward throwing the ball a lot play to the Broncos' strength on defense. Like Kima Greggs said, sometime things gotta play hard. The Broncos wiped the field with the Giants, who are very similar to the Eagles, so let's not lose hope that they can do it again. Remember, every game is an independent event, and what happened last week is irrelevant to what may happen this week. Go Broncos!

2. Information From My Eyes, Raiders at Broncos-

a. This is kind of information from my ears, but I can't stand Gus Johnson. I know a lot of people like him, but to me, he sounds like he learned his technique from the WWE's Jim Ross (whose name I had to look up, in case you're wondering). Can't you just picture Gus wearing a cowboy hat and yelling "He hit him with a steel chair?!"

b. While I am dogging CBS announcer team guys, Steve Tasker sucks pretty bad, too. He lacks a command of the rules, and it just doesn't seem like he prepares very hard. He makes blanket statements like, "The Broncos have lost 5 of 7 since Kyle Orton's finger got healthy, and they started throwing more." No reasonable person in the world would blame those losses on Kyle Orton, but there goes Tasker, joining the Peter King train.

PK: In six of the past eight weeks, Kyle Orton hasn't put up more than 17 points on the board. Yikes.

It's like the rest of the team is just McNulty's breathing machine. Tasker played the game for a long time, as a spunky, high-effort, overrated special-teams gunner. He should know that a lot is going on on the field that has nothing to do with the QB, and he should be the first person making that point. Hell, there are people who think he belongs in the Hall of Fame (PK evidently being among them, unlike his take on Floyd Little). Tasker should be the "look at the little things" guy, and instead, just mostly stays quiet as Gus Johnson announces the next elbow drop from the top rope, only opening his mouth to mention correlations where there's no causation.

c. Mitch Berger's punt at the end of the first quarter may have been the ugliest in NFL history. It was just atrocious, for those who didn't see the game.

d. Casey Wiegmann had his worst game as a Bronco on Sunday, in my opinion. He was on roller skates all day, going backward. I appeciate the guy's durability and smarts, but I don't think the coaching staff will want to go into next season with him as the starter.

e. The officials let Chris Johnson get away with a clear pass-interference penalty on a key 3rd down in the 3rd quarter. He facegaurded Jabar Gaffney downfield, and rode him out of bounds with his body. Let Tasker tell it, it was a perfectly legal play. He didn't remember the 5-yard chuck rule, I guess. This play was egregious.

f. Andra Davis played great on Sunday, especially on the goal-line stand. He was all over the field all day, and made a bunch of plays.

g. Mario Henderson played better than I've ever seen him play for the Raiders, especially in the running game. He was downfield driving Broncos defenders backward. He also held up very well in pass protection, but was helped by Charlie Frye's focus on getting the ball out quickly.

h. Vonnie Holliday was very good in the pass-rushing game for the Broncos, and Robert Ayers had good moments, too. The only really good rush Elvis Dumervil had, he got called for roughing the passer.

i. Don't let me see anybody blaming Alphonso Smith for the winning TD. He was picked, clear as day, by #86 for the Raiders. In a poorly officiated game, it was another obvious penalty that wasn't called. It was offensive pass interference all the way, and he was out of position for the tackle, making it very difficult. It's true that Smith has struggled as the season has gone on, but that play wasn't his fault.

j. Finally, a word about JaMarcus Russell. He can make every throw a QB ever has to make. When he came into the game Sunday, I was actually worried about it, because he has much more physical ability than Charlie Frye. I'm not ready to say he turned a corner, but I'm sure he engendered some additional belief in his coaches and teammates than he'd been previously seeing. He got it done, given the circumstances, so all you can do is tip your hat to the guy.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games-

a. I continue not to care whether the Colts go 16-0, and I didn't get to see much of the game, due to a 10:30 PM ET conference call with some guys who work for me in Pune, India on Thursday. Ho hum, the Colts won.

I was all over the Cowboys beating the Saints, though, and I did watch that game. The Cowboys had to be tired of hearing all this stuff about how they can't win in December, and the Saints had been trying to give away a game for about a month. The Saints had a really hard time protecting Drew Brees, especially LT Jermon Bushrod. For the guy who shares a hometown with him, the jury is in for me. He's an RTO playing out of position on the left side. I think the Saints were too greedy, and didn't do enough to help him with DeMarcus Ware.

b. I made some Cowboys fan mad back in October when I proclaimed Anthony Spencer to be just a guy. Cowboys fans need to be told when their players aren't as good as the hype around them - because the hype is so strong, most of them believe it. Anyway, Spencer was fantastic on Saturday night. He was setting the edge in the running game, and he got Drew Brees 3 times, losing one to a questionable penalty in the secondary. It was the best I'd ever seen Spencer play in the NFL, and if he can keep playing like that, the Cowboys are suddenly really difficult to handle in the playoffs.

c. I was very impressed with Tony Romo's play Saturday, and it's nothing new lately. He's been playing terrific football, with 8 TDs and 0 interceptions in his last 4 games. Lazy, uninsightful MSM idiots who fixate on meaningless trends were falling over themselves to say that Romo couldn't win in December. To most of these people, the other 52 guys on a team are like garnish on the side of the plate. It's obscene how stupid that all is.

d. The Cowboys did the right thing, cutting the cord with Nick Folk. He's been terrible this season, and when you can't count on your kicker to make a 27-yard field goal, you have big problems. Of course, the guy they replaced him with, Shaun Suisham, lost his last job for missing a 20-something-yard FG against New Orleans, to put the game away, too. Kicker seems to be an issue for Dallas every year, and they really need to address it on a going-forward basis.

e. The Lions are still playing hard, I'm sure try to secure jobs for next season. They really gave Arizona a run for their money on Sunday, but came up short, to the disappointment of my buddy Chris Dillon, who was in attendance. I was pretty impressed with the play of Maurice Morris, but I've seen him flash like this a lot of times in his career, and then do nothing a week later. The guy I always like the look of is Drew Stanton, who was a second-round pick, but never got a chance to play for some reason. He had some good moments Sunday, and looked more useful than Daunte Culpepper.

f. The Cardinals can't be blowing double-figure leads if they want to get back to the Super Bowl. I was telling my brother the other day that I thought the NFC Champion would once again come down to Arizona against Philadelphia, but the Cardinals lacked crispness for a second week in a row. They'd do well to get their act together.

g. There were a lot of interesting things to see in the Cleveland-Kansas City game, which was surprising. I had no intention of paying any attention to it this weekend, but it ended up being the first game I watched when I got home Monday evening. First things, first. I've never been a big Jerome Harrison fan, but he obviously played out of his mind on Sunday for the Browns. I have seen a lot of him over the last few years, so I remain skeptical of him. Prior to Sunday, if I had to describe Harrison in a sentence this would have been it: "He's a third-down back who lacks much power, speed, or explosiveness, and shouldn't particularly scare anybody." I think his career day was equal parts the best day of his life and the significant inflation factor that comes from running against the Chiefs.

h. The Chiefs had to feel pretty good about most of their offense's performance Sunday. Matt Cassel looked outstanding, and was hurt by about 10 drops by his receivers. Dwayne Bowe was particularly feeling in touch with his inner dropsies. Maybe it was rust from his steroid vacation? Anyway, Cassel was a positive sign again, after a couple bad weeks, and the good things he did had the look of things that would work against good teams, too.

i. If you'd asked me six weeks ago about Jamaal Charles, I'd have questioned his size and power, and also his running instincts. I always saw him as a guy who missed creases and ran into tackles. The coaching he's presumably been getting seems to have clicked lately, because he's making tacklers miss more than I've ever seen. He looks really good running out of the shotgun, which he did a lot of in college at the University of Texas. He's not a bell-cow RB, but teams aren't looking for those so much anymore. He can be a very effective 50-50 tandem guy, especially if the Chiefs could find a Michael Bush-type player to complement him.

j. You know how you can look at somebody and tell when they seem to be physically uncomfortable? That's how Mark Sanchez looked to me on Sunday, in the cold of New York, kind of like a woman looks when she's constipated. I thought his ball traveled a bit better through the wind than it did a month or so ago, when he played in his first bad weather, but his clear lack of physical comfort worries me, and should worry the Jets. Sometimes, a guy who grew up in warm weather embraces the cold, and has success in it. Brett Favre immediately comes to mind. If Sanchez goes back to SoCal in the offseason to chill out, that will be a bad sign in my mind. He ought to stay in New York, and get used to the weather. You may think I am overstating this, but he's going to have to play a ton of games in the cold throughout his career if he's going to be a 10-year Jet.

k. The Shallow Thoughts fantasy team continues to save its best work for the playoffs in the Official MHR League, and was dominant Sunday, led by Aaron Rodgers' huge day. I'm now one game from a championship. Not bad for a guy who doesn't like fantasy football, and a team which was counting on Larry Johnson and Derrick Ward to be stud RBs. I've gotten solid work from both Laurence Maroney and Jason Snelling at times, which has helped. I thought of Snelling, because I have really come to like his game on the real field. He runs hard, catches the ball well, and picks up the blitz. He's a good backup to Michael Turner, and when they're both healthy, they can really alternate physically pounding a defense.

l. I'll tell you right now, Falcons FS Thomas DeCoud is going to be on the All-ST&NO Favorites team I'll be releasing next week. He ought to be in the Pro Bowl for the NFC, but that's almost certainly not going to happen. He's very mobile and smart, and he always is in great position. What sets him apart from other good safeties, though, is that he can catch the football, and he did once again on Sunday, with his third interception of the season. I like matchup safeties, and I'm a big fan of DeCoud, going back to the 2008 Draft.

m. Kerry Rhodes got benched recently, and he looks to me like he's playing with a lot more ferocity and toughness lately. Rex Ryan had him coming on a bunch of blitzes Sunday, and the Jets did a great job all day against the Atlanta offense. If they had gotten better play from Sanchez this season, the Jets would have run away with the AFC East, because that defense is real. Assuming Sanchez improves in the future, this is going to be a team to be reckoned with in the years ahead.

n. I said something nice about Jay Cutler earlier, and now I'm going to go into semi-apologist mode for him, ever so briefly. Neither of the first two interceptions he threw Sunday were really his fault. On the first, Devin Aromashadu failed to get across the face of Domonique Foxworth on a slant route, which is his job. That's 100% on the WR to execute, especially when the play called for Cutler to look right first, and come back left on time, semi-blindly. On the second pick, the RT failed to cut Jarret Johnson on a 3-step drop, and Johnson jumped up in the passing lane and made a play. I've made this point before recently, but on a 3-step drop, the DE must be cut to the ground to clear the passing lane, and the player (I think it was Kevin Shaffer, but couldn't tell for 100% sure) failed to execute. Cutler's third pick was on him, but it was a tough throw moving to his left. He threw that one right to Foxworth. If the Bears want to do a smart thing, they'll try to hire Jeremy Bates away from USC. I don't necessarily think Bates can coach Cutler out of his well-established bad habits, but he at least knows how to put him in position to be most successful.

o. It's so difficult to deal with the height of the Chargers WRs and Antonio Gates. I don't know if I really know the right answer for stopping them. I think you need to play physical with them, and try to cover them man-to-man, but that's easier said than done. It's got to be better than letting them run the sideline against cover-2 with no re-route from a CB, though. I think Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall did pretty well Sunday, and the Chargers still got the win when it counted. San Diego is overrated in some areas, but they're underrated at WR.

p. I'd be shocked if LaDainian Tomlinson is back with San Diego next season. He was obviously a great player for a long time, but he's noticeably not the same guy he used to be. When a RB starts to lose it, you can see it in his leg drive when somebody hits him. LDT is going down a lot easier than he ever did in the past. He's like Arizona Cardinals-era Emmitt Smith right now, despite having a much shorter career than Emmitt.

q. I really liked Mike Tomlin's reasoning behind his onside kick strategy Sunday. I'm taking this from Peter King's MMQB, as I'm not sure if these comments were said exclusively to him, or were something he picked up from the team's PR people.

"I'll be very bluntly honest with you, based on the way the game was going in the second half, first of all I thought with the element of surprise we had a chance to get it, but if we didn't get it and they were to score, then we would have necessary time on the clock to score or match their score. Plan A didn't work, we got the ball but we were illegal, that was the correct call, but it kind of unfolded the way you envisioned it.

"We had 30 minutes of evidence that we could drive the ball on them, we also conversely had 30 minutes of evidence to show they could also drive the ball on us. That's why we took the risk when we did. We were just trying to win the football game. There was time left in that game that had we kicked that ball away and the half had gone the way that it'd gone, they were converting third downs. They would have moved the ball down the field on us, we wouldn't have had necessary time to respond. I'm just being honest, but it starts with feeling pretty good about the element of surprise and having a good chance to get that ball, but that part of it didn't work out.''

That makes sense, right? Even if you don't get the ball, you're cutting down the amount of time the Packers will take to score, and leave your own team enough time to answer. I generally can't stand the Steelers or their highly-ignorant fan base, but I have Tomlin's back on this one. After all, it played out exactly like he thought it would, if they didn't recover the kick. Nothing proves you right like being right, right?

But then PK chimes in with his commentary:

How the mighty defense has fallen. Wow. Mike Tomlin throwing his D to the wolves.

Sigh. Like they say on ESPN, C'MON MAN! You know what you are if you trust a defense that hasn't gotten it done all day? You're a moron who deserves to lose. I really think that this is the most idiotic conventional wisdom in football, that you have to trust your defense, no matter what. The Steelers got sliced up all game, and didn't deserve to be trusted. Tomlin had the pulse of the game exactly right. Hell, if I am him, I want my defense to know that I don't trust them in that moment, and step it the hell up in practice, and in the next game. Trust is earned, not freely given.

r. Here's a news flash for Peter King. Bryant McKinnie is not a very good player, especially in pass protection. You should never judge the quality of an offensive lineman on whether they get voted to the Pro Bowl, or were picked in the first round of the draft. McKinnie is solid against the run, but he's slow-footed, and he struggles to protect against good pass rushers. Julius Peppers did dominate McKinnie Sunday night, but it's less of a special feat than PK would have you believe.

s. I think the Panthers might have something with Matt Moore. He's not the most polished player, but you can tell he has some real talent. I'm not basing that on his results, per se, but more on the way the ball leaves his hand and flies through the air. If I were John Fox, Jake Delhomme wouldn't see the field again this season unless Moore got hurt.

t. Don't worry about Brett Favre arguing with Brad Childress on the sidelines. It doesn't matter, and these things happen all the time. I don't think the Vikings quite have what it takes to win a championship, but it has nothing to do with Favre and Childress not seeing eye-to-eye in one game. I think the only good player on their offensive line is Steve Hutchinson, and the rest of them are average to below-average. I also think Adrian Peterson isn't playing very well lately, and I wonder if he's banged up, because I don't see the suddenness and power I am used to from him lately.

u. The Giants really got their defensive line going Monday night. I guess it helps to play the Redskins, who can't block anybody. I was pretty surprised by the bad play of the Redskins defense, which has been tough all year. This game was so lousy, I barely paid attention to it after the first half.

v. Why couldn't the Redskins have run THAT variation of the Hunter Smith pass against the Broncos? That was a charlie foxtrot from the start.

4. For a straight single man, I'm a pretty good dresser. I figure I'm average looking, and I could stand to drop a few pounds, so I try to help myself by making smart wardrobe decisions. I have some common sense rules, I favor versatility and have a good feel for matching, and I never, ever wear trendy, overpriced crap like Ed Hardy. I'd give myself a B-plus to an A-minus.

So I am watching the NFL Network pregame show Sunday, and I can't help but notice the gear of the well-known sartorialist Michael Irvin. He had a pretty bad suit, and I remembered a draft a few years ago, maybe 2006 or 2007, when Irvin was working for ESPN. My ex-wife walked in, and saw him, and she was all about fashion. He was wearing a brown suit, with a brown shirt, and Christine says, "He looks like a big piece of poop." I couldn't help but agree.

So, horrible suit back then, pretty bad suit Sunday, funny memory. Then, the crew took off their jackets to do a technique demonstration, and I saw the worst part of Mike's gear. His shirt had epaulets!!! (I generally hate multiple exclamation points, but epaulets make it appropriate.) If you were in the military, chances are you know what epaulets are - if not, check it out here, where they spell it differently than how I learned in the Navy.

Okay, Mike? Unless you're going to a Troop Meeting, and making Eagle Scout, no epaulets, okay? There's no good reason in the world for a normal man's shirt to have them. Just say no to pretentious clothing. I wouldn't be surprised if Ed Hardy toolbag-in-chief Christian Audigier designed Irvin's shirt, too. The orange oompa loompa spray tan would look weird on Irvin, so it would be hard to carry the complete look.

I bet those guys' shirts have epaulets. By the way, I got that pic from the coolest Facebook fan page ever.

5. So there's big news that I have to share. I am retiring ST&NO. Next week, on December 29^th, 2009 I will post my last one ever, at least as far as I am planning now. New Year, new ideas, new LASIK eye surgery on January 15^th, so I won't be nearsighted anymore. The title just wouldn't make sense anymore, and like Russell Jones, I keeps it real. I plan to move my work in a bit of a different direction in the next year, and beyond.

Since I started writing ST&NO last January, I've tried to make it league-wide. Some MHR people have expressed appreciation for that, and I think some would like my work better if it was all Broncos, all the time. It's gotten more and more league-wide in nature during the course of this regular season - at first, kind of by accident. Later, I started to realize that I wanted to position myself for a more national platform, and I've gone with it more intentionally. I thank John Bena for always letting me write whatever I want, as I've been able to drop stuff that makes me happy.

In the marketplace of ideas, there's been a lot of evolution in how fans get football information. It used to be, you could watch your local market game, the Cowboys (America's Team), and a West Coast game, and then whatever was on Monday night. Now, you can watch any game you want, if you're willing to pay $400 a season for the privilege. Twenty years ago, you had your local rag newspaper, picking up some AP reporting, and having a couple Woody Paige-style columnists. I remember sitting in the front hall of my mom's house every Monday morning, reading the recaps and poring through the box scores. Now, you can go on the internet and read whoever you want. It's a brave new world, that continues to change all the time, and a guy like me has to continually evaluate my best positioning in it.

When there were just the rags, the strong written content was at the micro (team) level, mostly because it was the only particular written content, outside of a multi-sport skimmer like Sports Illustrated or The Sporting News. With the wide proliferation of the internet in the mid-90s, your average Len Pasquarelli and John Clayton emerged at ESPN.com, and the Worldwide Leader threw a ton of resources at football, taking the quality back to the macro level. In the early to mid 00s, it became much easier for people with no access to players and coaches to get information, and also to self-publish. Web 2.0 gave some people with real talent the chance to take the quality back to the micro level, where it really belongs, to a large degree.

Well, I'm a macro kind of guy who has been working at a micro level. I actually have personal friends who've told me explicitly that they won't read ST&NO because it appears on a Broncos site. It's just too much for some people to get past. You'll remember the story about the "repugnant" guy/girl from a couple weeks ago. The person's biggest burn was:

If you were as brilliant and talented as you think you are you'd be doing something other than running a niche website no one other than diehard Broncos fans gives a damn about.

As I told the critic in my response, I am very, very proud of MHR. It's the best Broncos site in the world, and I'm really proud to have been part of its rise, and call myself a member/alumnus of the site. From John, to the staff, to the community, it's really incredible what we have here, and I will always support and promote it. I'm struggling a bit to cut to the chase, which is unlike me, but you can probably tell by now that I am announcing my departure from the MHR staff.

I've decided to launch my own football site, with a stated goal of bringing MHR-style quality to the macro level. I looked at trying to convince a lousy MSM site like CBSSports.com to pay me for running my content on their site, and even went so far as to ask a friend to make an inquiry on my behalf. I've backed away from this idea, however, as I read about Bill Simmons' frustrations with ESPN's penchant for censoring his work. Everybody knows that wouldn't work for me. I'm taking the Oprah approach, instead, and owning my own outlet. I'm pretty close to being ready to launch, but not quite close enough to share details yet. Tune into next week's triumphant ST&NO finale, and you can get all the information about it.

There's such widespread suckitude at the national level, that I feel like I have to step directly into their arena, loudly and with both feet, if I really want to go after them. I'm here to tell you, I've got something for Peter King, Mike Florio, Clayton, Pasquarelli, Don Banks, Pete Prisco, and all the rest of them. Let there be no ambiguity. I am in it to win it at the national level, and I'll be applying everything I learned here at MHR, and every other resource I can muster to help make it happen. Sound the horns, because it is most definitely on.

It's Tuesday morning as I write this last part, time to post ST&NO, head to the office, and do another call with Kuldeep and Suresh in India. Have a great week, friends, and I'll see you next Tuesday for the final edition of this column. The ST&NO concept will definitely live on at my new site, but I'll be excited to have each of you with me next week, as we close this chapter of the story, and start writing the next one. Thanks for being MHR community members, and for reading my work every week. This site is going to continue to be great, and I'm just hoping to expand the universe a little faster than the reputation of the Most Interesting Man in The World, for a change. Thanks in advance for your support. :)

Some Broncos thoughts on this Black (and Silver) Monday

John Bena — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 16:47:28 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

3 days ago: Oakland Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell (2) throws a pass during the fourth quarter as Denver Broncos' Robert Ayers, left, applies pressure during an NFL football game in Denver on Sunday, Dec. 20, 2009. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

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Let's face it, yesterday's loss was painful. For me, it conjured up thoughts of a favorite movie quote(s) of mine, from The Princess Bride -

Prince Humperdinck: First things first, to the death.

Westley: No. To the pain.

Prince Humperdinck: I don't think I'm quite familiar with that phrase.

Westley: I'll explain and I'll use small words so that you'll be sure to understand, you warthog faced buffoon.

Prince Humperdinck: That may be the first time in my life a man has dared insult me.

Westley: It won't be the last. To the pain means the first thing you will lose will be your feet below the ankles. Then your hands at the wrists. Next your nose.

Prince Humperdinck: And then my tongue I suppose, I killed you too quickly the last time. A mistake I don't mean to duplicate tonight.

Westley: I wasn't finished. The next thing you will lose will be your left eye followed by your right.

Prince Humperdinck: And then my ears, I understand let's get on with it.

Westley: WRONG. Your ears you keep and I'll tell you why. So that every shriek of every child at seeing your hideousness will be yours to cherish. Every babe that weeps at your approach, every woman who cries out, "Dear God! What is that thing," will echo in your perfect ears. That is what to the pain means. It means I leave you in anguish, wallowing in freakish misery forever.

Prince Humperdinck: I think you're bluffing.

Westley: It's possible, Pig, I might be bluffing. It's conceivable, you miserable, vomitous mass, that I'm only lying here because I lack the strength to stand. But, then again... perhaps I have the strength after all.

[slowly rises and points sword directly at the prince]

Westley: DROP... YOUR... SWORD!

Prince Humperdinck: [Humperdinck's mouth hangs open, drops sword to floor]

That pretty much summed it up for me. I have always been about solutions, however, never taking long to sulk in my own pity. The Broncos are in a very precarious position with two games to go, one that they have brought upon themselves. Again. As I drove to work this morning several thoughts were swirling in my head, similar to the Sugar Plums we all will see a few nights from now.

We live in a culture that loves to blame. Anytime there is failure, we must find out whose fault it is and seek their remorse lest we drag them over the coals. The situation the Broncos find themselves in is no different. And there is plenty of blame to go around, for sure.

Josh McDaniels will get his share. Rightfully so, since he is the Head Coach, the leader of the team and the buck obviously stops with him. Whether it be play-calling, personnel decisions (Peyton Hillis-backers, that's for you), or game management, people have taken McDaniels to task for all of it. That's how it goes in the NFL - win and you are a genius; lose and, well, people call you something much less affectionate.

Me? I choose the harder route. The 53 men in that locker room need to take a look in the mirror. Actually, I'll get a bit more specific. Football is about players, not coaches - we all know that. Players either execute or they don't, make plays or they don't. We sit here in late December, with a nagging Deja-Vu feeling, not because of our coach, but because of the players - specifically the same players that have gone through this before.

The Broncos sit on the cusp of another December breakdown and the only ones that can stop it are the men in the locker room.

It is time for D.J. Williams and Champ Bailey, the mainstays of the Broncos defense the past four years to stand up and say, "NOT AGAIN". Yeah, I know D.J. and Champ are beloved, but they have also been part of the problem the past four years. They now need to be part of the solution.

I'm also talking to you - Kenny Peterson, Marcus Thomas, Wesley Woodyard, Elvis Dumervil - and every other player that was part of the defense in 2008, that was part of the collapse, it is time for you to stand up and say, "NOT THIS TIME".

I'm not going to forgive the offense, either. Someone needs to make a play - Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokley, Daniel Graham, Tony Scheffler - someone needs to step up these next two weeks and say, "NOT THIS YEAR". Yes, Marshall has been huge and Stokley seemingly makes every big play he is given the opportunity to make, but all that matters now is the next two weeks - and seemingly the two wins that would assure the Broncos a post-season berth.

Coaches coach, players play. It is easy to blame the coaches because it isn't their name on the back of the jerseys we buy, not their numbers we memorize. It is the players that get the credit, and it is the 53 men in that locker room, specifically the 23 players that were part of the Denver Broncos in 2008, that need to step up and decide the fate of the 2009 version.

Again, a movie quote, this time from Terminator 2 -

The Future Is Not Set, There Is No Fate But What We Make For Ourselves.

The past is just that, the past, and it holds no bearing on the future. The Broncos need to believe this.

The Broncos in the Playoffs - Do They Deserve It? - This has been a popular quote the past couple of days. It has sparked much debate in the community, though it shouldn't. Like everything, there are literal and figurative meanings. The Broncos' loss to the Raiders was inexcusable from a fan's perspective - I hate losing home games to any divisional opponent - and thus makes this team undeserving of post-season glory - figuratively.

Literally, the NFL playoffs are the toughest tournament to gain access to - in my opinion. Sure, baseball is pretty tough as well, but the financial system in baseball, along with the watering down of talent because of the number of teams, makes it much easier to simply buy your way in. Not that easy in the NFL.

It is a long season, and any team that EARNS its way into the post-season certainly deserves to be there, regardless of the number, or types of losses on its resume. We all know this, but fans are emotional and we let those emotions dictate our thoughts sometimes. No harm, no foul.

The Broncos did not deserve to beat the Raiders yesterday - that is true, but if they do what it takes and make the post-season in 2009 they wll have certainly earned that right and deserve to be there - just as they would earn the right to miss the post-season should they miss out...again.

Where Games are Won and Lost - I think we all know the answer to this old saying - in the trenches. Before the season we all knew the Broncos were thin on the offensive and defensive lines. Josh McDaniels knew it too - he drafted Seth Olsen and then, during Training Camp, traded for Russ Hochstein. The team also rebuilt the defensive backfield - an asset to any defensive line - and brought in Ronald Fields and Vonnie Holliday to help. Should we be so surprised that the Broncos are struggling on both lines, especially against physical opponents?

No, but it doesn't make it any easier to watch. Like it or not, the talent level on this team has been eroding for some time. I've been talking about it for a couple years now - the failures in the Draft in 2003, 2004, 2005, etc. have forced the team to start undrafted free agents and outcasts from around the League to make up for it. It is going to take time for that talent pool to be replaced. It has left the Broncos with little depth, and when injuries do occur - like the one to Ryan Harris, or age becomes a factor - Ben Hamilton - it leaves you with little direction to move.

We can blame Knowshon Moreno, or the lack of Peyton Hillis, for the Broncos' problems in short-yardage situations, but the truth is, 3rd- and 4th-and-short/goal is all about will, desire, and want. A little beef helps too, and right now the Broncos simply don't have enough beef to get it done - especially along the interior of the O-Line.

A Bit More On Knowshon - Knowshon Moreno has talent - no doubt about it. But right now, the kid is thinking way too much. We all know the Josh McDaniels playbook is large, and the running backs have a lot of responsibility in McDaniels' offensive scheme. Moreno looks like a player that is thinking instead of reacting, suicide in the fast-paced NFL.

That is the reason Moreno looks great in the 1st Quarter - 7 carries, 39 yards yesterday, then seems to fade. He gets the reps all week, has the game plan down pat, but when adjustments are made in-game, seems to struggle - he stops trusting his eyes, his blocks, his assignments, and starts to think. Great running backs react - right now, Knowshon is not reacting.

Moreno is a young guy, and you hope it comes with time, but right now Knowshon is suffering a bit from a lack of confidence. While he certainly isn't having a Clinton Portis-type rookie season, I still have high hopes.

All this Doom and Gloom, but... - The Broncos still control their own fate. Win in Philly and at home against Kansas City and the Broncos are in. I cautioned everyone a couple weeks ago and I will say it again - don't give any team wins this time of season. Don't look at the schedule and assume Baltimore, or Pittsburgh or anyone will win this game, or lose that game. The pressure is on right now and that affects teams and coaches differently. Play the games and see what happens. For the Broncos, that means win this week and next. You can't ask for more than what the Broncos have in front of them - to control their future - Read the quote above.

Go BRONCOS!

Oakland Raiders Postgame Recap: Raiders 20, Broncos 19

Rated-R Superstar — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 00:43:37 -0000

Yes, Charlie Frye was the guy going into this one. No, he wasn't the last one standing. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

It thankfully wasn't JaMarcus Russell getting the start under center. Instead, it was Charlie Frye getting the start at quarterback for the Oakland Raiders today as they hoped to put a minor dent into the the Denver Broncos' playoff hopes. Little did we know that both Russell and Frye would play a role in deciding the outcome of today's game. The Raiders (4-9) and the Broncos (8-5) met earlier this year in Oakland in which Denver prevailed convincingly. Last year in Denver, however, it was Oakland who came away with a shocking 31-10 victory. This time around, let's see how the two bitter rivals went at each other. Anything can happen in a rivalry game between two original AFL franchises.

Michael Bush made his only carry in the first quarter worth an important six points. [via a.espncdn.com]

First Quarter: The Broncos began the game kicking it off to the Raiders. Not surprisingly, the ineffective Gary Russell was returning kicks. He took a knee, though, and the kick into the end zone actually benefited us. Charlie Frye, a 6-14 record as a starter, took the field and threw an incomplete pass on the first play. Out of the power-I, Justin Fargas gained a few yards on the next play. Needing seven yards, a six-yard pass to Chaz Schilens brought out the punt team. Shane Lechler only managed a weak 45-yard punt right to Eddie Royal which was returned for not too many yards. On first down, the rookie out of Georgia by the name of Knowshon Moreno carried it to the right side and was tackled by Nnamdi Asomugha. On second down, Greg Ellis almost got to Kyle Orton and forced an incomplete pass off the deflection. A false start penalty on tight Daniel Graham set Denver back some more, and they needed 12 yards on third down. It didn't matter as Royal picked up more than enough to convert it. Utilizing the running backs effectively -- particularly Knowshon Moreno with just a little dash of Correll Buckhalter -- allowed the Broncos to move down the field nicely. A third down stop inside the 10 by the Raiders defense forced a chip shot field goal by Matt Prater. The Broncos had taken the early 3-0 lead. The second possession started with a four-yard pass from Frye to Schilens. A three-yard run by Darren McFadden made it a very, very manageable third down. The Broncos out of the blitz and despite being in a shot gun, Frye hurried the throw. It wasn't much a throw. The ball just sort of floated out there and Champ Bailey grabbed it easily out of the air. On Denver's first play on their next possession, Brandon Marshall made a 24-yard catch after running his route after being put in motion. Two plays later, the Broncos ran a screen to Ryan Clady which cost them yards thanks to a very nice tackle by Asomugha. A confusing penalty pushed the Broncos back to the 17 yard line. Kyle Orton was sacked by rookie Matt Shaughnessy on the next play, and then a screen play to Eddie Royal was stopped by Stanford Routt and company on the right side. Another Matt Prater field goal -- this one extra "boomy" -- gave Denver a 6-0 lead with just over four minutes to play in the first quarter. A dumb intentional grounding penalty cost the Raiders 15 yards and a down. Kenny Peterson squashed Fargas behind the line of scrimmage and it become third down and impossible. Another blah run and it was punt time once again. A 64-yard punt by Lechler, all of which came by of the leg, was returned for a mediocre gain by Kenny McKinley. Moreno continued to own us on the ground with a couple of more nice carries. A third down blitz forced an incomplete pass on coverage by, yes, Chris Johnson! Mitch Berger, who seem as if has been punting forever, booted a smashing 12-yard punt out of bounds. Oakland started at their own 34 yard line and Charlie Frye shocked the crowd with a 26-yard scamper on the left side after a play fake. That exciting play capped the first quarter at Invesco Field at Mile High.

Sebastian Janikowski dropped in a 54-yard field goal as he routinely does. [via a.espncdn.com]

Second Quarter: The second quarter began with Frye looking deep for Louis Murphy; however, it was incomplete although an illegal contact penalty gave the Raiders five free yards. Shortly, third down and long followed. A nice crossing pattern to Johnnie Lee Higgins picked up 12 yards and the first down as well. Then boom, I don't even know what just happened! Michael Bush, on his first carry of the game, goes 23 yards and in for the score. It's his first touchdown in nine games and a Sebastian Janikowski extra point gave Oakland a 7-6 lead early in the second quarter. Denver's next possession ended up with a punt after a first down. Mike Mitchell knocked down Orton after bringing the blitz on third down. Higgins returned the punt for a decent gain and the Raiders had good field position. After some plays, Elvis Dumervil grabbed Charlie Frye's facemask and was called for a roughing the passer penalty. A 15-yard penalty gave Oakland the ball at their own 48. A couple of run plays later made it third and manageable for Frye and company. Chased out of the pocket, Frye threw off of his back foot and hit Murphy on the right side. It was a great effort by both parties. Josh McDaniels threw out the challenge flag, but it only cost him a timeout in the end. The ruling on the field stood as originally called and Oakland had a first down at Denver's 41 yard line. McFadden picked up three yards on a carry to the left side as we Raider fans collectively as a bunch were wondering where Michael Bush was. Anyway, the game must go on. A one-yard pass from Frye to Luke Lawton on a play-action made it third down and six yards to go. Ah, now Bush is in the backfield. Out of the shot gun, Frye fired down the field to Schilens. It appeared as if Schilens had come down with it, but Denver's Tony Carter wouldn't give up on the play and made a nice play on the ball. Janikowski squeaked in a field goal to give the Raiders had a 10-6 lead over the Broncos. Denver opened up their next drive with what's been working well and that's been Knowshon Moreno's legs. A six-yard carry was all very well, but then Tyvon Branch blew the next one up in the backfield. An incomplete pass intended for LaMont Jordan set up a punt and a bunch of booing from the home crowd. A punt gave it back to Oakland, but it backed them up 15 yards after the Higgins return because of an illegal block in the back penalty on Sam Williams. According to commentator Steve Tasker, a former special teams specialist, claims there was no illegal block in the back. It didn't matter what he thought, however. A timeout was burned by Frye before the first play was run. Brandon Myers, filling in for the injured Zach Miller, made his first catch of the game for a decent gain. Michael Bush finally got a carry after his 23-yard touchdown in the first quarter and it was good enough for a first down. Frye was having communication problems with his helmet, so he ran over to the sidelines to get the play yelled at him. Andra Davis almost picked off Frye on the next play. Whew, that was close. Another near-turnover happened on the next play as Bush lost it; however, left tackle Mario Henderson was able to pick it up. A third down draw to Bush goes for 13 yards and Denver's defense had no idea. A solid run by McFadden took us to the two-minute warning. In good position for points, the Raiders looked to forge ahead some more. A nice throw from Frye to Murphy picked up a good chunk of yards and yet another 13-yard run by Bush took it to Denver's 16 yard line. Tony Stewart got into the act a few plays later with his first catch of the game. The Broncos got their stop on third down and the Raiders were confined to just three points. Janikowski booted through his second field goal of the day and Oakland had a 13-6 lead over Denver. Using up 22 seconds, the Broncos had three incomplete passes and then a short little pass over the middle to Jabar Gaffney. Tom Cable used his final timeout and forced the Broncos to at least bring out the punting unit. A 45-yard punt ended the half with Oakland on top over Denver by a 13-6 score. Oh, but wait as there was a penalty and so the Raiders got the chance to run one more play. A nice run for McFadden took us to halftime.

Honoring Chris Henry before the game, Brandon Marshall scored a touchdown during it. [via a.espncdn.com]

Third Quarter: The Broncos started the second half with the ball. A touchback by Janikowski plated Denver at their own 20. After picking up a first down, Kirk Morrison made a nice tackle in the open field to bring up a third down for the Broncos. Orton fired and completed it to Brandon Stokley as he, along with Tony Scheffler, made his first catch of the game on the opening drive of the second half. A 13-yard run by LaMont Jordan followed that as Hiram Eugene knocked him out of bounds. The Denver offense appeared to be firing on all cylinders as Orton hooked up with Eddie Royal in the middle of the field. A sense of urgency indeed from the Broncos offense, Gus Johnson. A big third down and long Denver could not convert thanks to a heavy blitz and great coverage by Chris Johnson. Matt Prater banged through his field third goal of the game and Oakland maintained their lead, with it now standing at 13-9. Oakland had the ball back and Frye hit Bush in the flat for a nice gain on the left side to pick up a first down. A toss to McFadden on the right side -- hey, McFadden in space -- picked up good yardage and even a first down in the process. Shaken up on the play was Champ Bailey, and he had to leave the game. A promising drive turned sour, however, with McFadden getting the ball stripped. Denver had it at midfield. A struggling offense has gained momentum just like that. On the first play, though, Asomugha blew it up in the backfield as he dropped Moreno for a four-yard loss. A stupid penalty on the other side of the field went against Stanford Routt and a third down and 11 turned into an automatic first down. A one-handed grab by Brandon Marshall gave the Broncos a first down and then he made another play all the way down to the Raiders' 19 yard line. Denver really took advantage of Marshall in this quarter when Asomugha wasn't on him. On a scamper by Kyle Orton, Tommy Kelly was down on the field with an injury. Some plays later, Orton hooked up with Marshall as Brandon was a yard deep in the end zone against a zone defense. Following that play, a fight occurred. I didn't see who exactly was involved, but it looked like Richard Seymour against some offensive linemen from Denver. Anyway, Denver cashed in on the McFadden fumble and the Broncos had scored 10 straight points to take a 16-13 lead late in the third quarter. Gary Russell finally got a chance to return a kick and it was actually a good one; however, penalty flag totally negated that one. It seems like the game is totally spiraling out now. A couple of sweet runs by Michael Bush -- including one of the 40-yard variety -- took the ball down to the 31 yard line of Denver's. Then, Darren McFadden had a huge run of his own that went for 28 yards on the left side. After a pair of one-yard Bush runs, the Raiders were still on the outside looking in with 28 seconds to go in the third quarter. On third down and needing a yard, another carry for Bush went nowhere but instead backwards. That ended the third quarter.

Yes, this is the correct reaction after JaMarcus Russell's performance. [via a.espncdn.com]

Fourth Quarter: To start the quarter, the Raiders were looking for the end zone. On fourth down, Cable elected to go for it. A fake dive and pitch to McFadden went for two yards, but was ultimately a yard short. Denver took over at their own one yard line. The defense stood firm, however, and Berger booted it to Higgins. A nice punt, Higgins backpedaled and was able to return it for some yards to his own 40 yard line. Carries by McFadden, Bush and then Bush again picked up a first down for the Raiders as they moved into Broncos territory. Frye dropped back to pass and was totally rocked by Andra Davis. Trying to get up to his feet under his own power, Frye just could not due to the impact of the hit. The trainers came onto the field and so, yes, JaMarcus Russell marched onto the field as we hung our heads. Where was J.P. Losman? An illegal shift penalty pinned the Raiders back even further. A run by Bush was followed up by a timeout. Let's have a recap within the recap for a second. Russell comes in and we have two men in motion at the same time, a weak run to the left side and then a timeout. Alright, so the run play wasn't on him. Still, you see what it's like with Russell in the game at quarterback instead of right tackle. Well, the next pass was totally short intended for Murphy and a five-yard spiking penalty on Louis brought out Lechler for a punt. The Broncos came out running it with Moreno and Jordan, and the Raiders are going to need a stop somehow to get the offense back out there. On the next play, a slant to Stokley went all the down inside he five as he beat Routt on that play. A horse collar penalty on Routt was tacked on. There was a bit of a delay afterward with some laser trouble in the crowd, but the game was continued. A stop on third down on the ground and a fourth down stop through the air held Denver to a field goal. After lasers and guys losing their pants, we had a bit of a scrummage after the field goal. It's all going down today. Just under six minutes remained with the Broncos on top, 19-13. A run by Bush and a four-yard reception by Schilens made it a very manageable third down for Russell. A low ball to Bush, that should have been caught, was dropped by Bush. The defense did their part, largely due to the sack, and Oakland was getting the ball back after the Denver punt. After a Higgins return, the Raiders had it at their own 38 yard line with still 3:29 to play. Russell was still the quarterback. On the first play, Cooper Carlisle had to scoop up a Russell fumble. God, we're doomed. Oh, but a flag on the next play on Andre Goodman gave the Raiders the ball in Broncos territory. A pass interference was rightfully called and new life had been granted. On second down, Russell was knocked out of the game. It's up to quarterback number three -- J.P. "Does He Even Know a Play?" Losman -- to save us now. After one incomplete pass by Losman, Russell was back in there. On fourth down, he fired it over the middle and it was caught by Tony Stewart who had enough for a first down. That took us to the two-minute warning. The first play out of it, Russell hit Stewart for nine yards. Following that, he found Schilens at the 10 yard line. Following an incomplete pass, an illegal contact penalty gave the Raiders an automatic first down at the five. There were 45 seconds to go in the game. Out of the shot gun, right tackle Cornell Green had a false start. That's pretty inexcusable. Still, it was a first down. Out of the shot gun, Russell dropped back to pass and has his arm hit as he he threw. The ball went out of bounds to the right. Then, on the next play, the impossible happened. Russell fires and it's caught by Chaz Schilens, his favorite target. With 35 seconds to go, the Broncos had just one timeout remaining. McKinley brought out the kick to the 21 yard line. Greg Ellis breaks through on the first play and sacks Kyle Orton while forcing a fumble in the meantime. After a second down incomplete pass, a deep ball to Brandon Marshall was broken up thanks to a huge hit from Michael Huff. A fourth down pass was completed to Brandon Stokley with about eight seconds to go; however, with no timeouts, Denver couldn't stop the clock. The game was over the Raiders had prevailed, 20-19, on the road over the Broncos.

The caption goes right here. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

The Report Card: I'll give grades to the pass offense, rush offense, pass defense, rush defense and special teams. Of course, you're welcome to give your own grades in the comments.

Pass Offense: D+ -- When you only complete less than 50 percent of your passes and you throw for 115 yards with an interception, you don't even deserve a "D+" grade; however, when you lead your team down the field like that to win the game, there's a curve involved. I think this is even a little generous.
Rush Offense: A -- Michael Bush had a tremendous day on the ground and Darren McFadden was certainly very good himself despite just 12 carries. Overall, a touchdown to go along with a 7.1 yards per carry average is very nice. Getting that touchdown in the third quarter maybe would've bumped it up to an "A+" grade, but we'll take this one every single time out.
Pass Defense: B -- Brandon Marshall was contained to a degree and that's all you can really ask for against a great wide receiver. Nnamdi Asomugha covered him well, but Stanford Routt and Chris Johnson didn't. Overall, the heat was on Kyle Orton enough to make him uncomfortable back there at times.
Rush Defense: A- -- A bad start, yes, but the rush defense really put the clamps down. LaMont Jordan had a nice average, but Knowshon Moreno did absolutely nothing in the second half. This was probably our best game as a unit as far as the opposition's ground game goes.
Special Teams: B -- Maybe not a great return pursuit a few times and Lechler didn't have his best day, but overall, it was a really good effort. Gary Russell didn't get a chance to return too many, but Johnnie Lee Higgins was decent and Sebastian Janikowski didn't miss.

My Thoughts and Tidbits: Wow, that was a terrific ending. Who thought that Frye would get knocked out, Russell would get knocked out and then Losman would have to come in? Then, who thought Russell would come back in the game and then lead the team to a game-winning touchdown drive? Man, that was an incredible game. The defense really played hard. The defensive line brought the heat, the linebackers tackled and the defensive backs made plays all over the field. That's how you respond after a bad game, guys. Let's finally get two consecutive wins with us taking on the Cleveland Browns (3-11) next Sunday. Thank you, Oakland Raiders, for our early Christmas present.

Poll

Weekly Recap Poll: Who was the Oakland Raiders player of the game?

Sunday Morning Scout--Oakland at Denver Edition

Jeremy Bolander — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 08:23:44 -0000

I take an inordinate amount of notes on the upcoming games throughout the week, culled from all of Doug's great links in Tracks, emails with local and not-so-local sportswriters and analysts, and a few rare gems that I manage to find the time to dig up myself.

I finally decided it was time to settle on a format and share the info with MHR, so bear with me if this seems clumsy or ham-handed in its first incarnation; as in any analysis, whether it is draft prospects or short yardage running games, the choice isn't "what do I include?" but, "what do I leave out?" Let's see how it goes. Welcome to Sunday Morning Scout, the best way to begin a Broncos Sunday: MHR style!

A clear playoff picture. Home division games.

With three weeks to go, this is pretty easy: beat Oakland and beat Kansas City, two sub-.500 teams whom Denver has beaten by double digits already this year.

Worst-case scenario if they do this is 10 wins, which can only be challenged by both Miami (7-6) and Baltimore (7-6) going 3-0 and having Miami's Strength of Victory clock in higher than Denver's. Denver currently owns the higher (adjusted for assumed wins and losses by the above scenario) strength of victory, and a little projective number crunching puts the remaining variables in Denver's favor by a slight 2-1 edge (out of 27 variable games Denver only requires 9 favorable outcomes compared to Miami's 18).

The NFL is a game of percentages over time, and those percentages say that in the above tiebreak scenario, Denver's slight advantage is all they need, so Denver's job is as clear as it has ever been: win division games at home. That was true on day one of the season, and it will still be true on day 119.

STRATEGY

Run/pass balance.

Denver pummeled the Raiders with an unbalanced 67% - 33% run/pass split earlier in the year. For that game, it worked out to 4.8 yards per play (45 total) on rushes and 6.8 yards per play (23 total) on passes. A 2-yard "passing premium" (a concept which represents the risk inherent in passing plays and shows up as the difference in avg yds/play for pass vs. rush) is rather high, and the indication is that a few more game-planned passes would have been highly effective in deepening the domination and blowing out the score completely. Thinking back, the reasoning behind NOT passing more was likely the slow start that our passing offense was experiencing with Kyle Orton's injured finger and the general learning curve of Josh McDaniel's offense.

Going into this game the expectation of the pundits is that Denver will attempt to re-enact their 200+ yard rushing game of Week 3, but in true amoeba fashion, McDaniel's first game-planning priority will be maximizing his yards per play from that matchup, and that means calling more passes, especially run-based passes like the playaction. With Oakland's strength languishing in the running game, and a "journeyman" QB under center, the expectation is for Oakland to attempt to run a risk-averse running scheme early, using short, high-percentage passes to backs Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden and a high percentage of running calls, probably designed to use clock and shorten the game. I would expect Denver to start the game with a slightly more risky package than we have become accustomed to seeing, in an attempt to setup some fantastic matchups in our running game and against their passing attack.

A huge key to what we will be seeing in this game will be to identify early just how risk-averse McDaniels is in the playcalling. With key injuries on offense and defense, he may not be willing to take any chances against Oakland. On the other hand, he may be comfortable with Knowshon Moreno and David Bruton, among others, and be willing to ride those guys. Confidence in the team right now will go a long ways if they make the playoffs, in terms of adding a dynamic that other teams must prepare for. The good news is that if they pass on that opportunity this week, they may well have another opportunity in the final week of the season to accomplish many of the same goals.

PERSONNEL

Moreno and the rock.

The good news about the likely addition of passes to the Broncos' gameplan is that their running corps could use a break. With Correll Buckhalter likely out, Moreno, LaMont Jordan and Spencer Larsen all playing at significantly less than 100%, and Peyton Hillis struggling to get on the field, this is very good news. Denver may be able to focus on keeping Moreno in the 20- to 23-carry range, where he was most effective in college. The calls for Knowshon to shoulder "a heavy workload" are a bit misplaced. If you can't use him effectively at 18 carries, you start to see diminishing returns afterwards. In college he averaged around 107 yards rushing per game (130 all purpose). He may reach and surpass that in the NFL, but it isn't a viable target to aim for. Focus on keeping him in a good range with his carries and let the rest take care of itself.

Clady vs Seymour, Seymour vs. Clady.

Ryan Clady ain't talking, and Richard Seymour is deflecting criticism of his hair-pulling stunt in Week Three, but for all intents and purposes this is probably a developing grudge match in Broncos-Raiders history. Clady and Seymour first met in 2008 when Seymour disrupted Clady's perfect rookie season with a half-sack in NE's blowout of Denver. When they met again, in Week Three in Oakland, after Seymour got, frankly, dumped by NE, a bit of frustration boiled over into a personal foul and fine when Clady dominated the matchup and caused Seymour to yank his Samson-like locks.

Now, with Clady fighting not only a generally slumping season for the O-Line in general, but his own personal slump within a slump where his expected level of consistent excellence seems just out of reach, and with Seymour needing to prove his professionalism in the face of what is looking like career murder in Oakland, this matchup may very well be one of the best in the game. With Daniel Graham staying in to help Tyler Polumbus, it would not be surprising for Denver to attempt to single Clady up against Seymour in the passing game, a high-risk, very high-reward scenario. Tied 1-1, let Round 3 of the Clady vs. Seymour grudge match begin.

Brandon Marshall vs Nnamdi Asomugha?

21 catches vs. $28.5 million. Pundits are already salivating over the matchup, and they should; it would be a matchup that would pit an immovable object against an irresistible force. Except it probably won't go down that way. To date, 90% of Oakland's coverage in the past two matchups has consisted of Chris Johnson on Marshall, and the results have been a workmanlike, if not effective total of 151 yards and 1 TD. A sizzling-hot Marshall against a slumping Johnson plays right into the game-planning hands of the Broncos, and for what it is worth, Johnson has basically noted that he can't stop Marshall from getting his receptions. "The key is stopping those plays after five or six yards and not letting him get further downfield," Johnson said. "The big ones -- the ones he makes 20 or 30 yards -- those are the ones that hurt you." If the Raiders are smart, they will assign Asomugha to shadow Marshall, and not leave that decision in the hands of the Broncos...

Another starter for Oakland at QB: out of the fire and into the Frye-ing pan?

First thing to note about Charlie Frye: he took a devastating situation and turned it into something positive once before. After being the first player in NFL history to be an Opening Day starter one week and traded the next (from Cleveland to Seattle), he immediately recognized a golden opportunity: the chance to study under Mike Holmgren, a Bill Walsh-descended QBing guru. "I wouldn't take that away for anything. If something happens to you, it makes you hungrier and keeps your eye on the prize as far as getting back on the field." The result is that he took a part of his game to a level he never even knew existed. He learned how to prepare himself, and as a result he has earned a reputation as one of the hardest working players in the Raider's locker room.

That has to be something Frye can build on as he prepares to be the second QB this year to leapfrog JaMarcus Russell for the starting job in Oakland. Bruce Gradkowski had salvaged a shred of respect for his team, and in the process had earned the respect of his teammates. When he went down, it was exactly that last shred of confidence which was threatened with extinction as well. Tom Cable's choice to bypass Russell was an attempt to maintain that thread of team unity, and it might just work.

Frye, who hasn't started a game since Oct. 12th of last year (12-of-23 for 83 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT), which was his only game in the past two years, has been found in the film room, in the gym and in the meetings, and rarely anywhere else. He had taken it upon himself to submit ideas for the offensive gameplan once Gradkowski was promoted to starter, and in the process had forcibly wedged himself into the game-planning session's give-and-take. When Russell's second demotion came down, and Cable announced that Frye would be the starter, within moments Frye had his position coach on the phone to go over the week's gameplan. He came in early the next day with a complete understanding of what it was that Oakland was going to try to do, as well as Denver's perceived strengths and weaknesses.

And while nobody is saying exactly what that plan is going to be, Denver should be playing close attention to how the offense ran under Gradkoswski, because they are going to attempt to do most of the same things. With the team expected to be firmly behind Frye, his biggest challenge may be getting enough of the rust off to be effective. Denver would be wise to bring pressure early and often.

Elvis Dumervil vs. Mario Henderson

Henderson is coming off of a disheartening performance where he allowed three sacks alone, and where his linemates surrendered JaMarcus to the wolves six times, overall. In an overall disappointing season, Henderson has been particularly poor, and his confidence seems decimated. With poor depth on the line, he is at serious risk of being DOOM's plaything in this matchup, and with DOOM in the neighborhood of a couple of fantastic individual achievements, he may be able to generate some momentum that gets out of hand. DOOM got 2 sacks in his first matchup with Oakland, and the Raiders give up a sack on average every 9 passing attempts, to rank near the very bottom rung of the NFL.

On the other side, DOOM has to be excited to see Frye again. The last time they faced off, when Frye was still a Brown, Elvis notched his first three-sack game. DOOM has never recorded more than two sacks a year against Oakland, so he will be shooting to break that trend in this game.

By The Numbers

#20

Look for this number on every Raiders offensive snap. For the Broncos it will be Brian Dawkins, and for the Raiders it will be Darren McFadden. Last week, Redskins safety LaRon Landry made the mistake of not consistently accounting for where #20 was on the field, and McFadden took advantage twice in the first half. Twice McFadden was split out wide and sent in motion, where he beat Landry on slants across the middle, the first time for a whopping 48-yard gain, and the second time for 26 yards. On the afternoon, McFadden caught three for 84, and should be expected to be moved around again to create matchups in space in the middle of the field.

It will be Dawkin's responsibility to close fast and break things up. If McFadden gets the ball in his hands out there, it is absolutely critical to make the tackle, easier said than done.

19-3

Kyle Orton's home record, best in the NFL since the 1970 merger. Kyle Orton needs to just be himself, and the Broncos can start working on the nice playoff bow to put on this present season.

4.5, 3.8, 3.1

That is the average rushing yards per carry for Oaklands top three runners. Lucky for Denver, Cable is too ignorant to use the 4.8, and Al Davis is too senile not to use the 3.1.

Michael Bush is the great secret of the Oakland offense - so great in fact, that even the Raiders don't seem to know about him. He is their only rusher to break 100 yards in the last 13 games. Despite seeing a significantly-reduced workload since the beginning of November, he maintained his average at 4.8, only to find himself without a single offensive touch in the blowout loss to the Redskins. Even the underwhelming fullback Gary Russell got two carries and two receptions. And even though Fargas averages almost 85 yards a game against the Broncos, you can count on McFadden being Al's choice. The insistence of drumming McFadden's low yards per carry into the gameplan, all in the name of "flow," is the antithesis to the Broncos' game-planning mentioned at the beginning of this article. The Raiders are essentially forcing their "passing premium" into the stratosphere, which forces them to take only the highest-risk passing options available, at the worst times. Well done, guys.

142

Number of rushing TDs allowed by the Raiders over the past 109 games, a stretch of futility unmatched in the history of the NFL, and leading to the worst record in the NFL over that same span: 28-81, an epically awful .257 winning percentage.

90 for 902

Number of penalties and penalty yards logged by the Raiders in 2009, with 3 games still to play. After spending the first half of the year playing uncharacteristically sound football, Oakland has imploded as of late, dropping from top ten to 25th in the league. In Washington alone they notched 14 penalties for 118 yards, including a backbreaking personal foul that essentially ended the 10-10 lock they were in. Oakland may be the only place I know of where a completely-collapsed structure can implode.

94-22

The score in Denver's wins against sub-.500 teams this year. My grandma called this "Making hay while the sun shines."

6 for 1000

Moreno is on pace for a 1,000-yd rookie season, and I for one couldn't be happier for him or the Broncos. He is the epitome of what I want the Broncos to look for in a football player - the kind of person who was described thusly by his coach at Georgia, and he meant every word of it: "Knowshon Moreno, I know when you get to watch the kid practice every day and see what he does, it gets you excited. He is a very vibrant guy. He could be a gymnast. You can't hide his enthusiasm for life. He will light up his team with his energy level. He will jump over a guy standing on his feet and score. He has got speed, power and agility. People have to respect his power. If (the defense) sends a guy full-speed to try and get him, Knowshon will make them miss."

If Moreno does acheive 1,000 yds, he will join some good company: 2002 Clinton Portis (1,508), 2000 Mike Anderson (1,487), 1999 Olandis Gary (1,159), 1989 Bobby Humphrey (1,151), 1995 Terrell Davis (1,117).

8,871

Number of consecutive snaps played by Casey Weigmann. An incredible strength and perseverance is required, and he may need that trait in spades as this line attempts to go from having a so-so season, to a terrific postseason.

Horse Tracks 12/19/09 - Buckhalter, Hill doubtful for Broncos; Law questionable

Douglas A. Lee — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 16:08:30 -0000

DB - Week 15 - Fri: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DB - Woodyard Showing Support - Gray Caldwell
"The final injury report for this weekend’s game was released on Friday, and the Broncos have six players listed as probable for the matchup: David Bruton (quad), Elvis Dumervil (toe), Spencer Larsen (back), Knowshon Moreno (ankle), Richard Quinn (hamstring) and Tony Scheffler (ribs). Ty Law (hamstring) is listed as questionable for the contest, and Correll Buckhalter (ankle) and Renaldo Hill (ankle) are listed as doubtful."

DB - Redefining Sweet Sixteen - Chris Gentilviso
"Since joining the Broncos in Week 7, Berger has brought a 39.3 net average on 32 kicks. Over the last five games, he has recorded a net average of 40 yards or higher, tying a personal best."

DPP - Short-yardage plays not Broncos' long suit - Jeff Legwold

LTC - Like old times: After a slow start, Marshall is in fine form - Brian Howell

LTC - There are no ‘gimmes’ as Broncos navigate road to playoffs with caution - Brian Howell

DB - A Few Minutes With Knowshon Moreno - Broncos TV

DB - This Week in Gameday: Dec. 20, 2009 - Gray Caldwell

DPP - MVP of Broncos? Hard-hitting "Dawk" - Mark Kiszla

DPP - McFadden seeing bigger role in Raiders' air game - Lindsay Jones

DP - Russell is an afterthought - Jim Armstrong

CSG - Berger has important, unnoticed role as holder - Frank Schwab

CSG - McDaniels not worried about other AFC contenders - Frank Schwab

AP - Buckhalter likely to miss Raiders game

AFC West News

ESPN - Final Word: AFC West - Bill WIlliamson

NFP - Russell’s enormous cost to the Raiders - Andrew Brandt

SFC - Huge Raiders lineman must squeeze into new role - David White

OT - Raiders notebook: Denver Broncos' Champ Bailey not ready to yield 'best cornerback' title to Nnamdi Asomugha or Darrelle Revis - Steve Corkran

OT - Walker will start at LG - Jerry McDonald

OT - Looks like Miller is out - Jerry McDonald

NYT - Tall Receivers Help Chargers Elevate Passing Game - Billy Witz

SDUT - Bolts’ Siler gets first chance to start - Chris Jenkins

SDUT - Cincy cornerbacks are a hit - Kevin Acee & Chris Jenkins

KCS - Haley keeps going for it on fourth down - Adam Teicher

KCS - Chiefs notes | Blackout doesn’t bother Haley - Kent Babb

NFL News

NFL - Week 15 injuries

NFL - Friday Injury Reports

NFL - Holmgren will have decision for Browns 'sooner than later'

NFL - Guard Incognito among five players fined for Week 14 misconduct

NFL - Snow moves Bears-Ravens to 4:15 p.m. ET Sunday

FH - Lawrence Phillips Sentenced to 31 Years for Assault

NFL Opinion

ESPN - Sunday Countdown online: Your weekly NFL guide - Week 16

NFL - Steelers must get to Rodgers if they want to get a win - Pat Kirwan

NFP - Player's Picks: Week 15 - Matt Bowen

ESPN - 10 Spot: See ya next week - Adam Schefter

USAT - NFL coaching carousel is starting its spin - Jarrett Bell

CBS - Peek at the Week: Bengals' focus may be shaken in San Diego - Clark Judge

Y! - Brees going all-out for perfection - Jason Cole

Y! - Caldwell and Payton know what's best - Mike Silver

SI - Cowboys at Saints - Adam Duerson

SN - Week 15 NFL Announcing: Dreaming of a White Sunday - Dan Levy

NFL - 2009 season illustrates spending doesn't always mean winning - Jason La Canfora

NFP - Diner morning news: A change for the ‘Skins - Mike Lombardi

NFP - The reasons coaches move - Jack Bechta

FH - Atypical Jones Not Defined by Football - Thomas George

SI - Former NFL star Dave Pear is sorry he ever played football - Jeff Pearlman

NFP - NFP’s 2009 ACC all-prospect team - Wes Bunting

PFW - Youth prevails among DB talent - Nolan Nawrocki

RIP Chris Henry

NFL - True tragedy in Henry's death is we never got to see his full rebirth - Steve Wyche

SI - Bengals march on without Chris Henry; what to watch in Week 15 - Peter King

FOX - Henry's death hits home for lifelong friend - Mark Kriegel

MHR Chalk Talk - Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos '09

Steve Nichols — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 18:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

During practice this week, and under the watchful eye of Coach "Jedi" McDaniels, Broncos QB Kyle Orton practices levitating a football. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

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I have a lot on my mind right now, and I want to touch on each issue that is rumbling around in my head.

1) The loss of Bengals receiver Chris Henry

2) The great effort by Denver in their loss in Indianapolis

3) The beating we are about to administer to the Raiders, and...

4) What is in store for the Broncos, this year and next.

Let's start with the big news of the week, the death of Chris Henry. I don't know the circumstances surrounding the death of Chris. I know there was a domestic dispute, and Chris fell out of the rear of a moving pickup truck. But that's it. I'm not interested in who was at fault, and what led up to this tragedy. Here's what I do know:

Chris was a young father. There are young children whose lives are going to be impacted by this death, and that is more crucial than anything having to do with football. My prayers are with them.

Second (and not even on the scale of importance as the loss of a human life) is the question as to how the Bengals will choose to react to this tragedy. This week the Bengals play the Chargers. As we know, the Broncos would like to see the Chargers lose as many games as possible in the final three weeks. CIN is the biggest threat left for the Chargers (the other two games are at TEN and home against WAS). Will the Bengals take this death too hard to play four quarters of football, or will they play an inspired game?

I was against SD in this game, but now I'm for Cincy. I'm sure much of the football world will be, too. Let's keep Chris's children in our prayers.

Denver is a Very Good Team

What did I want and expect from Denver this year? A record of at least 8 wins, and improved play. Well, I've received what I wanted (and expected).

Our defense is exciting to watch! Brian Dawkins is all over the field making big plays, Elvis Dumervil is looking like the sack leader of 2009, and Andre' Goodman and Renaldo Hill have held their own with Champ Bailey for for playing at an elite level. Robert Ayers and Darcel McBath look like they have secure futures with the team, and Andra Davis has silenced the naysayers that claimed he didn't belong on the same team as D.J. Williams. Denver has one of the best defenses in the League right now, and the hiring of Mike Nolan to run the defense was brilliant.
When Josh McDaniels had to determine the best way to get something in return for Jay Cutler, his options were limited. He took Kyle Orton and a few draft picks. Right now, Orton is playing much better than Cutler (many of us would have said this was even the case before the trade), and that number one pick from Chicago is looking like a real gem right now. Orton isn't flashy, but he isn't giving the ball (and ballgames) away either.
I don't like the fact that we "only" rank 12th in running the ball. Still, Knowshon Moreno is on track to go over 1,000 yards for the season (despite sharing the running load), and Correll Buckhalter averages 5.3 yards a carry. I'll take it.

It sucked losing to Indianapolis, didn't it? Well, not entirely. First of all (as our own John Bena points out), this isn't the same Broncos team of the last few years that would have been blown out. It was a tight game. Denver blew some chances in the red zone (including a missed FG, and an INT in the end zone), but the team also played for 60 minutes and did a lot of things right.

I read Ted Bartlett's excellent ST&NO article on Tuesday, and found myself nodding my head in agreement time and time again with his take on our Indy game. I'd like to copy and paste many of his thoughts here, but I'd have to use most of his article, so you might as well just click the link I provided and read the whole thing again because it is that good. Here are the highlights -

The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 possessions.

And now I'll just paraphrase some more thoughts from the story -

We proved that we can disrupt Manning. Andre' Goodman was brilliant. Darcel McBath may be lost to IR, but he had a heck of a game before going down to injury. In fact, he was awesome. Indy didn't have an answer for Brandon Marshall (more on this in a moment). Jabar Gaffney looked good. Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil looked great (despite a lack of sacks). Doom (despite a recent fanpost calling for a trade due to his lack of ability in run stopping) continues to handle run stopping and pass rushing duties like a pro.

And now about Brandon Marshall. The Broncos may be trying to sound "politicaly correct" when they say that they weren't trying to get the ball to Marshall over and over. Coach McDaniels says that Marshall happened to be open a lot, so that is where the ball went. I appreciate what the coach is saying, but he's reciting "coach speak" because he's too polite to state the cold, hard truth.

The truth is, Marshall was open some of the time, and some of the time he wasn't. But the bottom line is, nobody in the Colts secondary had even the smallest trace of ability to stop The Beast. Simply put, Marshall did a brilliant job of out-muscling, out-jumping, and outdistancing his opponents on nearly every play. The Tampa-2 remains a good defense, but it still takes mediocre cornerbacks and puts them into positions to make plays. When a good QB like Kyle Orton can dink and dunk underneath the coverage, a powerful man like Marshall can make the catches and run over lesser corners. Coach McDaniels has too much class to put it like that, but that's how it was. We kept going to the well because the well wasn't drying up, and the guys guarding the well just weren't that good.

We have beat great teams this year, and lost a close game to a probable Super Bowl contender. I feel great!

The Oakland Raiders

How bad have things gotten in Oakland? This bad (warning - strong language). When the editor of a fan blog goes this far over the top, we know that things have collapsed completely. The unfortunate linked story tells us everything we need to know about the Raiders organization. Most notably, that the fan base is disgusted with their own team.

Where to begin? Denver is saying all the right things in their press conferences (such as "Oakland is a better team than their record, and they're capable of big plays if we aren't careful"), but really, c'mon now.

As a coach, I am going to pump my team up as much as possible. Any team can beat any other team if one of those teams isn't playing at a high level. But here's the problem. This is a new Denver team, a team that plays with the "Brian Dawkins Work Ethic". We don't let up, and we play hard. The shenanigans (or Shanahanigans) of the last three or so years have ended. This team is pumped up and playing hard. I frankly can't see the Denver Broncos taking a team for granted anymore.

Here is what you need to know as we go into this game.

First, Oakland is a terrible team on offense. They are second-to-last in the following vital stats - points, yards, and pass yards. In fact, they only average 11.9 points per game. And while they rank 31st in those areas, they rank only 22nd in running the ball. Denver's defense matches up perfectly - 4th in preventing points, 3rd in preventing yards, 2nd in preventing the pass. Denver is 15th in stopping the run.

Things are so bad, that posters at S&BP are excited about the prospect of seeing their third string QB get the start!

On defense, things aren't much better. The Raiders are 26th in preventing points, 28th in stopping yards, and 30th in stopping the run. At least they are 17th in stopping the pass (which isn't saying much). Meanwhile, the Broncos are a better match on the offensive side of things, though the stats aren't great. Denver is 20th in points, 17th in yards, 18th in passing yards, and 12th in the rush. Still, Denver has a record-setting WR, a careful QB, and excellent RBs.

Do the Raiders have any hope at all? Of course they do. Everything (including home-field advantage) screams for a Broncos blowout over the Raiders, but it isn't a done deal.

First of all, the Raiders have players that anyone should respect. That the team doesn't play together as a team is their downfall. The Raiders have good running backs in depth, and any of them could break a good play with good blocking and poor defense by Denver. But with a 5-2 look and motivated play from Denver, I'm not sure this will be an issue.

The Raiders also have a decent defensive line, but right DE Greg Ellis is probably out for this game. A good match-up may be LDE Richard Seymour against Denver RT Tyler Polumbus.

One of the better players for Oakland is Nnamdi Asomugha, a young and very talented CB. He'll face Brandon Marshall. Even with excellent coverage, Orton has several other places to go with the ball (3 other excellent receivers, and two TEs).

Sadly, the best player on the Oakland team (in my opinion) is kicker Sebastian Janikowski. He has the power and accuracy to make just about any field goal, and the thin air in Denver only gives him better chances to score.

Denver's biggest weakness isn't players or coaches, it is injuries. Denver's primary running back is out for this game. RDE/OLB Elvis Dumervil didn't practice, and neither did SS Renaldo Hill.

So forgive me for the keys to this game sounding a bit, well, tongue in cheek. I'm being serious.

Keys to the Game

Oakland -

Forget about this game. If you want to start winning games, the change needs to come from the top. Al Davis is unable to keep his claws out of the team's football operations. He has brought in a boxer instead of a head coach, a QB who needs Jenny Craig more than Kirstie Alley does, and forces the team to play a vertical offense approach that has been outdated for decades. Throw in the terrible player moves of late (such as the Javon Walker signing), and this team isn't going to win many games. Until Al Davis is removed, the Oakland Raiders are the ~~Detroit Lions~~ Oakland Raiders of the NFL.
Pray that the Broncos take you for granted like Pittsburgh did.
Run the ball, and pray to God that Denver makes mistakes.

Denver -

Take this game seriously. The only way that you lose this game is to play against the Raiders as if the Raiders are as bad as they are. Play your own brand of football, and play hard on every down. Everything else will work out.
Limit mistakes. If you want to hand the game to Oakland, get some penalties and turnovers.
Curb the excessive celebrations. I expect a lot of great plays on offense, defense, and special teams. If you take off your helmet (I won't mention any names) or do a choreographed dance, we can get penalized. (lol)

Where do we go from here?

With a newly built team that doesn't sleep on games, I expect wins against KC and OAK at home. The game that really intrigues me is the one against Philly. I have this game circled on my calendar as an excellent game against a good team. I also see it as a prelude to the playoffs. How we play against the Eagles in an away game will tell me a lot about our postseason chances. More on that game next week.

If the Broncos can win the last three games (I'd put the odds at about 50/50) and SD loses to CIN and drops a game in TEN, I really like where the Broncos could end up. On the other hand, if DEN loses to PHI and the Ravens win out (games against CHI, PIT, and OAK), we could drop from 5th seed to 6th seed. In the end, I think Denver gets the 5th seed, regardless of the PHI game. But winning that game (along with the must-win "easy" games of OAK and KC) may prove to be critical based on what SD and BAL do.

Here's a major thought - there are four teams ahead of Denver in the playoff seedings at this point, and Denver has beaten three of them (SD, CIN, and NE). We are good enough to go far this year. We also lost to two of those teams (SD and IND). I don't think we're likely to win or even make a SB appearance. In fact, it is hard to beat any team twice (the losing team has more film that benefits them), so I think a deep playoff run is difficult.

But I wanted improvement this year, and a playoff appearance is ahead of where I thought we would be. Coach McDaniels gets an A+ for his first year.

Last year, it would have been silly to talk about playoffs this early (remember the three game losing skid?), but a new coach and a new team attitude has me believing that we will make the playoffs this year. I'm not even concerned about how far we get after that. Denver has already exceeded my expectations, and everything now is icing on the cake.

And now, for a parting shot...

I want to thank the Colts fans who visited us last week. They were friendly, smart, and active. I congratulate them on their fine victory, and for having class at our site. Well, almost all of them.

I enjoyed the following comment under my story last week...

Which is the bigger overstatement?

"Broncs have the best secondary ever assembled on one team"

OR

"Colts are facing an incredible pass rush"

Neither the secondary or the pass rush are the best in the league this year, let alone legendary. Let’s watch the game and decide which of these statements is the most absurd.

by Check Your Facts

I didn't see the comment until today. Here was my answer some moments ago...

Check YOUR facts sir.

Is it just me, or is Elvis Dumervil leading the League in sacks right now? Bailey and Dawkins not legendary players with HOF in their futures? Are you kidding me?

Denver wasn’t going to win this game (as I wrote), but your comment is very perplexing. As it turns out, we intercepted Manning three times, and hurried him through out the game.

Check your facts indeed. lol

by Steve Nichols

It is now clear which comment was most absurd. Funny, but it wasn't either of mine.

: )

Poll

Jamarcus Russell, QB of the Oakland Raiders....

Horse Tracks 12/18/09 - Hill, Law, Buckhalter miss practice again; Dumervil returns; Shanny may take 'Skins job

Douglas A. Lee — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 12:30:13 -0000

NFL Films - Week 15: Raiders vs. Broncos Preview - Video

DB - Week 15 - Thu: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DB - Tickets Available for Raiders Game

DB - Ready to Seize the Moment - Zach Eisendrath
"There were three changes to the Broncos Week 15 Injury Report on Thursday. After not practicing on Wednesday, Elvis Dumervil (toe) and Brandon Lloyd (not injury related), participated in full during Thursday’s practice session. A limited participant in Wednesday’s practice, Knowshon Moreno (ankle) also participated in full on Thursday."

DPP - Broncos sack master Dumervil still learning fine points of 3-4 defense - Lindsay Jones
"Safety Renaldo Hill and nickel corner Ty Law both missed a second consecutive practice Thursday, increasing the chance for significant playing time for rookies David Bruton (for Hill) and Alphonso Smith (for Law). . . . Running back Correll Buckhalter is unlikely to play Sunday after missing his second consecutive practice."

DPP - Broncos QB Orton's toughness earns respect - Mike Klis
"If they would have made a one-for-one deal, I would take Orton straight up over Cutler, no question," said Joe Theismann, an NFL Network analyst and former quarterback. "Noooo question."

DB - Week 15 - Thu: Marshall - Broncos TV

DB - Week 15 - Thu: Bailey - Broncos TV

DB - Eddie the Entrepreneur - Zach Eisendrath

LTC - Denver to face Frye - Brian Howell

DPP - Orton a winner, but not a keeper - Dave Krieger

DPP - Analysis: Raiders, Miller could be good test for Broncos' Bruton - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Q&A: Another Peyton Hillis question - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Spotlight: CB Alphonso Smith - Lindsay Jones

CSG - Broncos' Bailey lends time to Denver Rescue Mission - Frank Schwab

CSG - Broncos notes: Rivalry strong - Frank Schwab

AP - Broncos Banged-Up On Both Sides Of The Ball - Arnie Stapleton

NFL Results

NFL - Indianapolis Colts 35 at Jacksonville Jaguars 31

Y! - Manning takes a page from Marino's book - Jason Cole

SI - Unpolished Colts should keep chasing perfect season - Jim Trotter

FH - Caldwell's Gamble Dumb, but Peyton Saves Him - Jay Mariotti

CBS - Still-unbeaten Colts can now take foot off gas pedal ... right? - Pete Prisco

AFC West News

DPP - Raiders owner Al Davis' football genius conflicts with recent struggles - Jim Armstrong

FH - Fassel: Losman Can Thrive With Raiders - Anthony Olivieri

SFC - Raiders opt for mobile Frye over Russell at QB - David White

OT - Raiders' Trevor Scott has flourished since moving to weakside linebacker - Steve Corkran

OT - McFadden strictly a singles hitter - Jerry McDonald

OT - Branch will play anywhere - Jerry McDonald

SDUT - High-scoring Chargers driving on pass plays - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Boomer bullish on Bolts’ passing game, shot at Super Bowl - Jay Posner

SDUT - Bolts not pressured by blitzes - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Blackout lifted for Chargers game

KCS - Chiefs game won’t be on local TV - Adam Teicher

KCS - Albert’s poor play has weighed heavily on the Chiefs - Kent Babb

KCS - Chiefs buzz | Bowe still getting up to speed - Adam Teicher

Redskins/Shanny

NFL - D.C. shakeup: Allen will run Redskins as GM after Cerrato resigns

NFL - Redskins hiring Allen could be first move toward adding Shanahan - Jason La Canfora

DPP - Shanahan may become Washington's next head coach - Mike Klis

NFP - Diner morning news: ‘Skins clear way for Shanny - Mike Lombardi

CBS - Cerrato latest to earn scapegoat label under Snyder's 'Skins - Clark Judge

NFP - Will coaching dominoes start to fall? - Robert Boland

NFL News

NYT - Congress Schedules 2nd Hearing About Brain Injuries in Football - Alan Schwarz

NYT - New Stadium at the Meadowlands Allowed to Bid for Super Bowl in 2014 - Joe Lapointe

NFL - Thursday Injury Reports

NYT - Friday Morning QB: Updated Playoff Possibilities for Breakfast - George Bretherton
The Jags' loss to the Colts was good for the Broncos, as another contender for the 5-seed fell out.

NFL Opinion

NFL - Five teams nobody wants to face in the playoffs - Vic Carucci

FOX - Boom or Bust: Woodson is NFL's best on D - Adam Schein

ESPN - New Orleans Saints are the soul of America's City - Wright Thompson

CBS - Having Brees instead of Romo has Saints feeling blessed - Larry Holder

PFW - Texans' defense makes remarkable turnaround - Mike Wilkening

Y! - Browns search raises Rooney Rule concerns - Jason Cole

FH - Mike Holmgren a Popular Choice With Browns Players - Josh Alper

FH - Lions' Coach Frustrated With Team of 'Castoffs' - Chris Burke

SI - Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson? NFL players, GMs debate - Jim Trotter

NFL - In quest for 2K, CJ might have passed AD as NFL's top RB - Bucky Brooks

PFW - Jay Cutler, with glimpses of Jeff George - Tom Danyluk

PFW - Jones not leaving Jets for a while - Dan Parr

Y! - Jones-Drew Q&A: Stop the Bush comparisons - Jason Cole

NFP - Evaluating two early entry wideouts - Wes Bunting

Picks/Previews

NYT - Week 15 N.F.L. Matchups - Mike Tanier

NFL - Oher gets latest test in Ogunleye and other Week 15 matchups - Gil Brandt

ESPN - John Clayton breaks down the biggest NFL games of Week 15

RIP Chris Henry

SI - Chris Henry's death latest tragedy to hit Bengals - Don Banks

SI - Chris Henry's death interrupted his redemption with Bengals - Paul Daugherty

Y! - Henry was contrite, optimistic in camp - Mike Silver

NFP - Coping with the death of a teammate - Matt Bowen

FOX - A tragic end to Chris Henry's troubled life - Alex Marvez

FH - Chris Henry Another Senseless Statistic - Kevin Blackistone

FH - Unfortunate Break Derailed Henry's Shot at Redemption - Thomas George

FH - Sad Thing Is, Henry Really Did Change - Terence Moore

FH - Grieving Bengals Must Shift Focus to San Diego - Nancy Gay

DPP - Bengals' loss of Henry reminds Broncos of Darrent Williams - Jeff Legwold

CSG - Marshall "crushed" by passing of Bengals receiver Chris Henry - Frank Schwab

NYT - Saints Player With a Shared Heritage Mourns Henry - William Rhoden

Doom and the Pursuit of History

Emmett Smith — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 19:03:37 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

27 days ago: Denver Broncos defensive end Elvis Dumervil (92) and defensive tackle Darrell Reid (95) react after Dumervil sacked New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Denver, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009. Denver won 26-6. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

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With 15 sacks already to his credit, Elvis Dumervil is within reach of setting an NFL record for sacks in a single season. The record is currently held by Michael Strahan, who reached 22.5 sacks in 2001, the highest total since the stat was first recorded. With only 3 games left, Doom is in a race with time as well as against the offensive linemen who stand between him and his goal. He's also one sack behind Simon Fletcher for the Broncos team record.

Once considered to be too small and too light to play at the NFL level, Doom's career has leapt forward following his change from defensive end to outside linebacker during the summer of 2009. Following players like Mike Vrabel and James Harrison, Elvis is one of a growing number of 'tweener' players who did not exactly fit into one position or another due to unusual metrics. Like the best of those tweeners, Doom has some unique abilities. Doom has large hands that are unusually strong for his size and possesses a skill at leverage that few players can boast. Once he was moved away from the left tackles who outweighed him by 60-100 lb, Elvis was also able to bring his speed to bear on the plays, getting a running start that let him hammer into ball carriers, dodge around linemen and use his unique blend of speed, power, balance and leverage to bring down quarterbacks.

Every player learns from those who have played before, and Dumervil is no different in that respect. Recently, Men's Journal ran an article on Michael Strahan, who gave several pointers on exactly how he managed to achieve 141.5 sacks over the course of 216 games between 1993 and 2007. While Strahan had a considerable size advantage over Dumervil (he played at 6-5 and 278 lb, compared to Doom's 5-11 (some still say it is 5'10) and 248 lb, the principles he laid out are just as important regardless of metrics. Some of them clearly are a benefit to Dumervil.

Job 1 - The Film Room

Strahan believed, as most of the best NFL players do, that the game is won in the film room, although played out on the field. He stated that finding "tells" on the part of the offensive linemen, quarterbacks and running backs, as well as tells in the form of certain tendencies due to formation, were the first key to making the sack. Many fans are aware that the color of an offensive lineman's knuckles (lighter or more reddish) can vary depending on exactly where he is holding his weight and that this can lead to knowing before the snap whether the play will be a run or a pass. Strahan, like many others, used film to discover far more than that. One quarterback (who is still playing) claps his hands before a passing play if he's in the shotgun. Certain linemen turn their heads to one side unconsciously. There are as many in the NFL as their are in poker. In both games, it's up to the superior player to discover what they are and what they mean.

An example came in the contests against Strahan's Giants' division rival Philadelphia Eagles and their huge (330 lb) left tackle, Jon Runyan. Strahan had studied Runyan exhaustively, and had learned some things that made theirs an unequal matchup. Runyan, for example, would leave his foot straight with the heel slightly up if he was going to man block straight ahead. He also left his heel high if he was dropping back to pass-block. If his heel was on the ground and turned in, Runyan was going to go down inside and if the foot was flat and the heel turned out, he would step out to reach block. Strahan had learned to read him like a book.

Not surprisingly, Strahan gave Runyan fits. In a single game in 2001, Strahan notched 3.5 sacks against Donovan McNabb before halftime. By the third quarter, Runyan didn't have a clue as to how he was to stop #92, who was on his way to his record-setting year's total of 22.5. If Doom wants to break that record - and to continue to play at this level over the next decade - he'll be talking to other rushers and hunkering down with a lot of film each week. Victory goes to the prepared, over and over again. It's a lesson that can't be overstated.

Job 2 - What's Your Plan?

Every poker player knows that misdirection can be a key to a match, and many of the matchups within the game at the NFL level can be much he same way. Coaches will use a formation that is well known, but will run a new pay off of it at a crucial moment. Earlier this year, Brandon Marshall changed a hitch route to a go route against the Dallas Cowboys and turned an 8-yard gain into a TD. In any one-on-on matchup during a game, if one player can convince the other that he'll be moving in one direction, he can gain the advantage by changing to another. It happens within every game.

Strahan had a plan of action that he liked to use during games that used both technique and psychology to gain advantage. His first 4 pass rushes would almost inevitably be bull-rushes - using his strength, one on one, to try and overpower the lineman who was unenviably tasked with stopping him. Strahan believed that if you beat a man with a speed move early on, he will respect your speed but if you overpower him you'll create a psychological advantage that can be used in a variety of ways over the rest of the game. The lineman will expect more power rushes and can be taken out of the play when you begin to open up your own book of moves. The results - 141.5 sacks over 216 games - speak for themselves.

On his fifth rush, most lineman are preparing themselves for a power move by squatting back slightly, sitting their weight down and back and reaching out with their arms. At that moment, Strahan would chop their hands, reach for their outside shoulder and swing around them. The lineman would be in no position to shift his weight and interfere with the maneuver. After that, the lineman was often at Strahan's mercy. If he moved to protect the outside, Strahan was already clubbing him and spinning inside. Perhaps the best example of this came in Strahan's final game, Super Bowl XLII against New England. Nick Kaczur, according to Strahan, "...didn't know what to expect". Kaczur wasn't the only one, but this example went a long way towards granting the Giants their Super Bowl Victory.

One of the areas where Dumervil has a substantial advantage over most players is that his height/strength ratio is unusual - for a man less than 6 feet tall, he's extremely powerful. That strength, combined with balance and an unusual ability to find his opponent's "tipping point" are among the things that has set Doom apart from many other players at the same position. Big, sinewy hands, an ability to get them onto the lineman before he is grabbed, a tenacious grip and a talent for upsetting another player's balance are among the many keys to standing out at the rush linebacker position.

By the way, having a tell can also hurt the defender. When the San Francisco 49ers were matched up against the NY Giants during the Lawrence Taylor days, they were slated to meet in the playoffs. Head Coach Bill Walsh noted that Taylor had a short series of tells when he was planning on rushing the quarterback. Taylor really didn't care if people knew what he was going to do - he'd flop his hands around, wave his arms and generally, as Giants defensive back Beasley Reese would put it, act "...like a cop putting a siren on top of his car." Walsh used that to the 49ers' advantage - he had left guard Dan Ayers, at 6'5", 270 lb (Taylor, although incredibly strong, fast and agile, was 6'3" and 237 lb by comparison, according to pro-football-reference.com) drop back and to the outside when Taylor prepared to rush, cutting him off before he could reach Joe Montana. This maneuver would cost the Giants in the 1981 Divisional Round. Ayers liked rodeos, calf roping and also enjoyed throwing a rope around a tractor tire and dragging it through freshly plowed fields for fun. He was strong and agile enough to slow Taylor since he had sufficient notice that LT was coming. Although those signs of LT's intentions had simply created fear in the past, in this case LT's tells worked against him. The 49ers won easily.

Job 3 - Knowing Where the Quarterback Will Be

Like the first one, this principle also requires a lot of time in the film room. Even when he's beaten his lineman or TE, Doom has to get to the QB before he can either throw the ball away or escape out of the pocket. Both can be rendered moot by learning where the quarterback will move to when he feels the pressure of the defensive rush. Each player is different but all have tendencies to one extent or another.

Some quarterbacks like to run with the ball. Those are the players who think, "Pass, pass, no ,RUN!" Although such players, including a spectrum from Michael Vick to Jay Cutler, will move to wherever they think there is an opening, most of them will prefer to move in one direction or another. Players like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will move more within the pocket, but they, too, have tendencies - generally, they like to step up within the pocket. Last season, Matt Cassel liked to pull down the ball and run up the middle when pressured. After 47 sacks, you could hardly blame him, but by knowing where he would usually run to, the rush linebacker could maneuver his lineman so that he would break off on a bull rush suddenly and spin to the inside, cutting down the QB before he could escape. Some quarterbacks are a little slower to break from the pocket, or slower afoot (Kyle Orton is one of these) and those players can often be taken down from behind. The rusher can't take his angle too deeply, permitting the QB to step up into the pocket; and he can't let the angle go too shallow, permitting the QB to step back and to the outside.

The secret here, according to Strahan, is to keep the passer on your inside shoulder. If the QB likes to step up, you try to aim your rush so that you end up 2-3 yards from the line of scrimmage. If you watch a lot of film, many rushers fail to contact the QB because they are being ridden to the rear by the linemen (especially in a short-drop situation) or are being cut off as they attempt to go more inside, between the QB and the LOS. The rusher needs to know ahead of time where he expects the QB to be as the play finishes and to try and get there first. Obviously, factors such as whether a QB is using a 3-, 5- or 7-step drop also makes a great deal of difference in planning your attack. If the QB is throwing a lot of 'smoke' (hot), hitch, out and slant routes with the 3-step drop, you have to plan your finishing location to take that into account. If you're looking at other routes, ones that break the usual 12.5 yards from the LOS, you've got more time to achieve pressure.

By the way, this also illustrates the interaction among the different defensive positions. If a CB is playing off coverage, many QBs will audible to a 3-step drop using one of the four I listed (often the 'hot' or 'smoke' route, although terminology varies), the rushers will have to know the coverage the CBs will be playing to plan their own attacks in order to create the most disruption or success.

Job 4 - Tackling the QB

During the Broncos/Giants game, with 6:29 remaining in the 2nd quarter, Denver had NY backed up nearly to their own end zone. Anticipating a pass, Andre' Goodman suddenly dove in on a cornerback blitz. He caught Eli Manning in the end zone, but he didn't make the tackle cleanly. He was able to pull Manning down, but not before Eli had thrown the ball away out of bounds. The play still stopped NY, but it cost the Broncos 2 points plus the ball.

Tackling technique is a difficult issue in the NFL. Proper technique in wrapping up and bring the man down is especially important when rushing the quarterback because those situations really give you two opportunities. The first is for the strip - if you are coming up from behind the QB, he may have his hand struck before he even knows that a defender is there. Secondly, even if the ball is not stripped, there is a chance for negative yardage by making the tackle before the QB can get rid of the ball. And third, of course, is the opportunity like the one mentioned here, where the defender can put points on the board for a safety if he can tackle the QB cleanly and pin his arms to his body as the tackle is made.

Strahan managed just such a move in the thrid quarter of the same SB mentioned above against NE - he fired out of his stance, blew past Kaczur and wrapped up Tom Brady before the QB could dump the ball off. Strahan swears that he recalls yelling loudly, "Tom, do not throw the ball!. I got you! I got you!" And he did.

If Doom is going to break Strahan's record - whether this year or any other - he'll need to master his own set of rules. It's likely that he'll start with the ones listed here, though, and add some others. For instance, Doom can still learn a lot from another sack artist who has played in the league for a bit longer - Jared Allen. Since coming into the league in 2004, there has been no one with more sacks (70) than Allen. Allen uses a whole variety of sack moves to get to the quarterback. He uses the rip, a pure-speed rush, a bull rush, a two-hand rush, a single-hand rush, and a modified swim move in which he pulls at the top of the tackle's shoulder pads. In this highlight reel, he demonstrates all of these moves: The only type of rush that Allen doesn't generally use is the spin move.

There are two other things to like about Allen. The first is that, despite his "mullet' persona, he studies film quite a bit. In fact, before facing Chicago this year, he mentioned several times that he was going to go back and watch Rams games in order to get ready to face Orlando Pace:

"I've had some success against him..he's getting older, but the guy still has a resume that's quite impressive. I'll go back and watch tape of how I played against him when I was with Kansas City."

The other thing one has to like about Allen is his frequency for strip sacks. He has 3 strip sacks in 2009 and 19 forced fumbles over his career, most of which have come on sacks. From these estimates, about 1 out of every 4 of Allen's sacks result in a strip and/or fumble. It's clear that when he reaches the quarterback, he's thinking about getting the ball.

Dumervil is no slouch as a pass rusher but he would do well to add some more moves to his arsenal so that he doesn't become predictable with his speed rush. He must study all of the tackles he will face extensively in the film room--as we are sure he does--as well as mining the knowledge of everyone around him who has been up against those same tackles. Whether this year or another, the sack record may yet be under attack by Dumervil. If he successfully brings it down, it will be a tribute to all that he has learned from those who played the game before he did.

Horse Tracks 12/17/09 - Key Broncos Dumervil, Hill, Buckhalter, Law miss Wednesday practice due to injuries

Douglas A. Lee — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 12:41:02 -0000

DB - Studying Beyond the Standings - Chris Gentilviso
"For the Broncos, five players did not participate in Wednesday's practice: Correll Buckhalter (ankle), Elvis Dumervil (toe), Renaldo Hill (ankle), Ty Law (hamstring) and Brandon Lloyd (not injury related). Knowshon Moreno (ankle) was a limited participant. The four others listed on the report -- David Bruton (quadricep), Spencer Larsen (back), Richard Quinn (hamstring) and Tony Scheffler (ribs) -- were full participants. Five Raiders also did not participate in their Wednesday practice: DE Greg Ellis (knee), QB Bruce Gradkowski (knee), WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (foot), WR Nick Miller (shin) and TE Zach Miller (concussion). The two others listed on the report -- S Michael Huff (neck) and C Samson Satele (calf) -- were full participants."

DB - Week 15 - Wed: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DPP - Raiders pick Frye over Russell for start at QB - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Broncos forced to deal with injuries, inexperience at safety - Lindsay Jones

DPP - Briefs: Hobbled backfield may create chance for Hillis to help - Jeff Legwold

NFP - Marshall's big payday is coming - Matt Bowen

DPP - Q&A: Broncos likely to trade down in draft - Jeff Legwold

DB - Week 15 - Wed: Orton - Broncos TV

DB - Week 15 - Wed: Dawkins - Broncos TV

DPP - Time to draft new deals for star duo - Woody Paige

DP - Marshall vs. Asomugha matchup a key for Broncos - Mike Klis

DPP - Analysis: Raiders' issues at QB standard fare in NFL - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Toronto doctor "saved" Simms - Mike Klis

CSG - Seymour incident adds to Broncos-Raiders rivalry - Frank Schwab

CSG - Broncos have injuries at safety - Frank Schwab

CSG - Broncos notes: Bruton among candidates to replace Hill if needed - Frank Schwab

KDVR - Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders Preview - Chris Tanaka

INDT - Broncos building for the playoffs - Hunter Ansley

DB - Broncos History From ‘Hoagy’ - Gray Caldwell

DB - Original Bronco Al "Hoagy" Carmichael Visits Dove Valley - Broncos TV

DPP - Former Bronco Bell sounds great again - Jim Armstrong

AFC West News

OT - Charlie Frye, not JaMarcus Russell named Oakland Raiders starting quarterback - Steve Corkran

OT - Is there more to come after JaMarcus Russell's demotion by the Raiders? - Monte Poole

OT - Quarterback Bruce Gradkowski is inclined to re-sign with Oakland Raiders - Steve Corkran

OT - Russell might never get off bench for Raiders or anyone else - Cam Inman

OT - No `breakthrough’ in sight for JaMarcus - Jerry McDonald

PFW - Safety shuffling hampers Bolts' pass 'D' - Michael Blunda

SDUT - Dependable Kaeding quietly holding record - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Ochocinco calls out Merriman - Chris Jenkins

KCS - Chiefs in bad hands with their receivers - Adam Teicher

KCS - Chiefs notebook: Bowe works with first-team offense in return to practice - Kent Babb

NFL News

NFL - Wednesday Injury Reports

NFL - Bengals WR Henry sustains life-threatening injuries in fall from truck

NFL - Mangini says he's not worried by Browns' interest in Holmgren

NYT - For John Madden, at 73, the Game’s Still On - Richard Sandomir

NFL Opinion

NFP - Despite drama, Pats still a playoff team - Matt Bowen

NFP - Warming up the NFL coaching carousel - Robert Boland

NFP - Wednesday whys: Big extensions for Peyton, Brees? - Andrew Brandt

NFL - Colts, Saints becoming pride fighters in perfection pursuit - Steve Wyche

NFL - Defensive prowess has been the real key for Colts and Saints - Bucky Brooks

FH - No Guts, No Glory: 19-0 Is Way to Go - Jay Mariotti

NFP - Diner morning news: Can Holmgren rebuild Browns? - Mike Lombardi

NFP - Tavern talk: Holmgren not on Seattle’s list - Mike Lombardi

ESPN - 'The Big Show' coming to Cleveland? - John Clayton
"The Texans are close, but I thought the four-game losing streak in the division could cost Kubiak his job, particularly with Mike Shanahan and Bill Cowher available." If John Clayton thinks Shanny would EVER take a job from which Kubes had been fired, he's even dumber than I've ever thought.

CBS - Coaching diagnoses: Survival chances of eight on edge - Clark Judge

CBS - Young talent may make Jacksonville anonymity thing of past - Pete Prisco

ESPN - Have at It: Will Cutler make it? - Kevin Seifert

Y! - HGH cloud begs for future testing - Charles Robinson

SN - Will Two Undefeated Teams Help NFLN Pressure Time Warner? - Dan Levy

NFP - NFP’s 2009 Big 12 all-prospect team - Wes Bunting

Predictions, Etc.

NYT - Week 15 N.F.L. Game Probabilities: What Is the Effect of Resting Starters? - Brian Burke

NYT - Thursday’s Matchup: Colts at Jaguars - Mike Tanier

SN - Week 15 picks: Electric Chargers will continue surge - Vinnie Iyer

FH - NFL Picks, Week 15: Will Colts Play Soft? - Dave Goldberg

FOX - Week 15 Cheat Sheet - Peter Schrager

SI - NFL Playoff Projections, Scenarios for Week 15 - Dom Bonvissuto

FH - Predicting the Playoffs: A Nearly Drama Free NFC - JJ Cooper

SI - Eagles crack top five - Don Banks

FOX - Handicapping the MVP race - Alex Marvez

Previewing the Enemy: Denver Broncos

Rated-R Superstar — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 14:37:54 -0000

Earlier this season, Denver won a topsy-turvy 23-3 game in Oakland. [via www4.pictures.zimbio.com]

Unfortunately for us loyal fans of the silver and black, the season isn't over quite yet. With Bruce Gradkowski out, our already slim chances just became even slimmer. Coming off of a blowout loss at the hands of the Washington Redskins, we next face our hated rival in the Denver Broncos. Denver's real season hasn't even yet started. Sitting at 8-5 and atop the AFC Wild Card, the Broncos in great position to grab a playoff spot. I'll admit that I did in no way see this coming from this Denver squad. They've definitely proven a lot of people wrong as they continue their final push into the playoffs. A familiar opponent to us, let's see what we're up against this Sunday.

Let's take a look at their schedule and see how they've fared so far.

Week 1: @ Cincinnati Bengals -- W, 12-7
Week 2: Cleveland Browns -- W, 27-6
Week 3: @ Oakland Raiders -- W, 23-3
Week 4: Dallas Cowboys -- W, 17-10
Week 5: New England Patriots -- W, 20-17 (F/OT)
Week 6: @ San Diego Chargers -- W, 34-23
Week 7: Bye Week
Week 8: @ Baltimore Ravens -- L, 7-30
Week 9: Pittsburgh Steelers -- L, 10-28
Week 10: @ Washington Redskins -- L, 17-27
Week 11: San Diego Chargers -- L, 3-32
Week 12: New York Giants -- W, 26-6
Week 13: @ Kansas City Chiefs -- W, 44-13
Week 14: @ Indianapolis Colts -- L, 16-28

Wow, the Broncos have really cooled off after a great 6-0 start. Just 2-5 in their last seven games, the Broncos still have good wins against teams like the Cowboys, Patriots, Chargers and Giants. They're no slouch.

Let's take a look at the Bronco offense first.

Pass Offense Rank: 225.2 yards/game; 19th in NFL
Rush Offense Rank: 123.2 yards/game; 12th in NFL
Total Offense Rank: 336.4 yards/game; 19th in NFL
Scoring Offense Rank: 19.7 points/game; 20th in NFL

I bet this guy feels like an idiot now. [via stfusports.files.wordpress.com]

Head coach Josh McDaniels is pretty close to being an offensive genius. A disciple of Bill Belichick's, the 33-year-old McDaniels really knows how to run a team at least offensively. There was controversey before the season started, especially revolving around star wide receiver Brandon Marshall. Still, he's around and there aren't any qualms circling around him. In the offseason, the team waved goodbye to Jay Cutler. It may have been the best thing they've done after all.

Kyle Orton, QB: No, he doesn't have the big arm that Jay Cutler does. No, it's not a problem at all. Coming over from the Chicago Bears in an offseason trade that sent Cutler packing to Chicago, Orton has flourished in Josh McDaniels' system. Orton is completing a career-high 63 percent of his passes and will break a career-high in touchdowns and yards before the season concludes. He's a smart quarterback. He doesn't make mistakes. He can make the play, too. What more do you want?

Knowshon Moreno, HB: A rookie from Georgia, Knowshon Moreno didn't immediately step into the starting role. Lately, he has been getting the bulk of the carries. Moreno has carried it an average of 18.2 times over the past five weeks for an average of 82.8 yards. He has also scored three times during that span. Moreno has pretty much taken over the feature back role, although he won't catch many passes out of the backfield.

Correll Buckhalter, HB: Buckhalter was brought over in free agency from the Philadelphia Eagles and has done a pretty good job this season despite not getting the bulk of the carries. Overall, Buckhalter has posted a 5.3 yards per carry average and has been very reliable carrying the football. Like Moreno, though, Buckhalter isn't a threat out of the backfield to catch the ball having no more than three grabs in a single game in two months.

Brandon Marshall caught an NFL record 21 passes last week against the Colts. [via a.espncdn.com]

Brandon Marshall, WR: What more can be said about Marshall that hasn't already been said? At one point, we didn't even think he'd be a Denver Bronco. Now, he's tearing up the league. Amongst AFC pass-catchers, Marshall is tied for the conference lead in touchdowns (9), is third in receptions (86) and is seventh in yards (1,008). He is probably headed to a Pro Bowl. In case you missed it, last week against the Colts, Marshall had an NFL record 21 grabs for 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It'll be fun to see him matched up against Nnamdi Asomugha.

Jabar Gaffney, WR: Josh McDaniels brought Gaffney over from New England to play in his system in Denver. Gaffney is averaging about 39 yards per game when he does catch a pass as he was shutout in Week 10 and Week 13 each. Still, Gaffney must be accounted for along with the rest of the weapons that go unmentioned during this preview, such as Brandon Stokley. At any given week, one of those these weapons can step up and hurt you.

Eddie Royal, WR: More dangerous in the return game, Raiders fans know all about this speedy little man from Virginia Tech. Last year on Monday night, Royal had a huge coming out party in the opening game. After a great 2008 campaign, this season has been bit of a disappoint for Royal; however, he still makes an impact. As previously mentioned, Royal is a threat in the return game -- both kicks and punts. Not quite as dangerous as someone like Joshua Cribbs of the Cleveland Browns, just ask the Chargers about Royal's prowess.

Daniel Graham, TE: Yet another former Patriot is calling Denver home. With Tony scheffler's status in doubt this Sunday, Graham becomes even more keyed-in on in the passing game. Graham isn't Orton's favorite target or anything, but last week, Fred Davis hurt us with his two touchdown receptions. With all of the guys Orton has to throw to, limit as many of them as you can. Stopping Graham isn't high on the priorities or anything, but just don't let the people who shouldn't beat you hurt you.

Let's shift gears to the Bronco defense now.

Pass Defense Rank: 183.3 yards/game; 2nd in NFL
Rush Defense Rank: 107.4 yards/game; 14th in NFL
Total Defense Rank: 290.7 yards/game; 3rd in NFL
Scoring Defense Rank: 17.7 points/game; 5th in NFL

Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has completely transformed the defense. [via a.espncdn.com]

Man, where do I begin with this defense? Last year, they were outright terrible. Ex-49er head coach Mike Nolan steps in, implements a 3-4 defense with the right personnel and viola. Some no-name defensive linemen Kenny Peterson, Ryan McBean and Ronald Fields have stepped in and played well. At the linebacking core, D.J. Williams and Andra Davis are very solid in the middle. Elvis Dumervil, playing the outside linebacker spot and even defensive end, he has become a sack machine. He leads the entire NFL in sacks with 15. With all of that said, the rushing defense is still just a tad above average despite improvement -- dramatic improvement. The secondary is where the defense shines with the pass defense. The team gets great rush on the quarterback and the defensive backs are very skilled. Veterans Brian Dawkins at safety and Champ Bailey at cornerback lead the defense.

Conclusion: Well, it's quiet simple: Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden and all the rest of you running backs need to be ready to carry the load. With Bruce Gradkowski out and Zach Miller's status in question, it only makes sense to pound the rock. Denver's rush defense is ranked 14th, significantly worse than their pass defense which is only worse than the Jets'. JaMarcus Russell or Charlie Frye -- we're all collectively praying for McDonald's instead of Fasto Burger which can be seen on That '70s Show -- will have a tough time. The young wide receivers are up against a tough secondary and it's just setting up for disaster, really. Again, we're going to have to establish some sort of ground game. Use 'em often and use 'em all with the exception of Gary Russell as he should be used in the flat. I don't know what else to tell you. We could be in for a long day. This could easily turn into a 41-6 rout.

Feel free to leave your predictions or even your own thoughts and ideas about the Denver Broncos and how we can earn a win our fourth win of the season on Sunday.

*-All stats are through Tuesday, December 15, 2009. (Happy 44th, mom!)

Poll

SB Nation - Elvis Dumervil

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Some Broncos thoughts on this Black (and Silver) Monday

The Future Is Not Set, There Is No Fate But What We Make For Ourselves.

Oakland Raiders Postgame Recap: Raiders 20, Broncos 19

Weekly Recap Poll: Who was the Oakland Raiders player of the game?

Sunday Morning Scout--Oakland at Denver Edition

STRATEGY

PERSONNEL

By The Numbers

Horse Tracks 12/19/09 - Buckhalter, Hill doubtful for Broncos; Law questionable

MHR Chalk Talk - Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos '09

Denver is a Very Good Team

The Oakland Raiders

Keys to the Game

Where do we go from here?

And now, for a parting shot...

Which is the bigger overstatement?

Check YOUR facts sir.

Jamarcus Russell, QB of the Oakland Raiders....

Horse Tracks 12/18/09 - Hill, Law, Buckhalter miss practice again; Dumervil returns; Shanny may take 'Skins job

Doom and the Pursuit of History

Horse Tracks 12/17/09 - Key Broncos Dumervil, Hill, Buckhalter, Law miss Wednesday practice due to injuries

Previewing the Enemy: Denver Broncos

Do you feel more confident in a win, less confident in a win or about the same in a win after reading this preview?