SB Nation - Domonique Foxworth

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 13:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

4 days ago: Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels, right, talks to quarterback Kyle Orton during a break in the action during the third quarter of of an NFL football game against the Oakland Raiders in Denver on Sunday, Dec. 20, 2009. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. I am writing this lead-in on Black Monday, and I'm still not in a very good mood, as you can imagine. I'm going to try to make the best of it, and drop a good column despite the bad feelings. We'll see, because I still haven't watched this infuriating game a second time yet. No guarantees. For now, let's get on with it. Ready..... BEGIN!!!!

1. So, I am not too thrilled, as you might imagine. I don't think anybody particularly is, but this game solidified a thought in my mind about the Broncos, that I've been close to, but never fully there this season. It kind of makes me feel like a fool actually, because way back, when I was the only credible analyst in the world predicting 11-5 for the Broncos, my main reason for thinking it is what I had wrong.

The Broncos offensive line is the weakness of the team, and I thought it was the strength. When I envisioned beating Baltimore and Pittsburgh, it was because I thought the Broncos would be able to block them. I've frequently observed the struggles of one guy or another, but the real conclusion we need to reach is that this group leaves a lot to be desired. Nice Thing to Say About Jay Cutler Alert: I think we all underestimated how much his quick release, mobility, and pocket awareness helped prevent sacks last year.

This year, they've given up sacks at key times, often when it's been obvious that they had to throw the ball. That has been the minor part of the problem. The major part is that they've struggled to drive-block all season, and lately, they've struggled to effectively zone-block, too. Russ Hochstein is terrible, and really hasn't been any kind of improvement over Ben Hamilton. Casey Wiegmann has regressed this year from his previously high standard and gets pushed backward too much. I haven't been too thrilled with the play of Chris Kuper over the last month either, and Tyler Polumbus has proven to be just a backup and special teams player.

I think this season turned when Ryan Harris got hurt. He's one of the best RTs in the NFL, and between he, Kuper, and often Daniel Graham, the Broncos had a good ability to open holes in the running game to the right, outside. Now, the Broncos get pushed backward too much, and are very susceptible to run blitzing against their zone schemes. In the short term, they can help themselves with plays like backside smoke screens off outside play action, inviting/exploiting the run blitzing. In the long term, though, they interior of the line badly needs to be upgraded, because the Broncos will always struggle against physical fronts if it doesn't.

Now, the Broncos do still control their own destiny, even after losing two in a row. They can beat Philadelphia too, if they can protect Kyle Orton, and run the ball effectively. I really think that the Eagles' tendencies toward throwing the ball a lot play to the Broncos' strength on defense. Like Kima Greggs said, sometime things gotta play hard. The Broncos wiped the field with the Giants, who are very similar to the Eagles, so let's not lose hope that they can do it again. Remember, every game is an independent event, and what happened last week is irrelevant to what may happen this week. Go Broncos!

2. Information From My Eyes, Raiders at Broncos-

a. This is kind of information from my ears, but I can't stand Gus Johnson. I know a lot of people like him, but to me, he sounds like he learned his technique from the WWE's Jim Ross (whose name I had to look up, in case you're wondering). Can't you just picture Gus wearing a cowboy hat and yelling "He hit him with a steel chair?!"

b. While I am dogging CBS announcer team guys, Steve Tasker sucks pretty bad, too. He lacks a command of the rules, and it just doesn't seem like he prepares very hard. He makes blanket statements like, "The Broncos have lost 5 of 7 since Kyle Orton's finger got healthy, and they started throwing more." No reasonable person in the world would blame those losses on Kyle Orton, but there goes Tasker, joining the Peter King train.

PK: In six of the past eight weeks, Kyle Orton hasn't put up more than 17 points on the board. Yikes.

It's like the rest of the team is just McNulty's breathing machine. Tasker played the game for a long time, as a spunky, high-effort, overrated special-teams gunner. He should know that a lot is going on on the field that has nothing to do with the QB, and he should be the first person making that point. Hell, there are people who think he belongs in the Hall of Fame (PK evidently being among them, unlike his take on Floyd Little). Tasker should be the "look at the little things" guy, and instead, just mostly stays quiet as Gus Johnson announces the next elbow drop from the top rope, only opening his mouth to mention correlations where there's no causation.

c. Mitch Berger's punt at the end of the first quarter may have been the ugliest in NFL history. It was just atrocious, for those who didn't see the game.

d. Casey Wiegmann had his worst game as a Bronco on Sunday, in my opinion. He was on roller skates all day, going backward. I appeciate the guy's durability and smarts, but I don't think the coaching staff will want to go into next season with him as the starter.

e. The officials let Chris Johnson get away with a clear pass-interference penalty on a key 3rd down in the 3rd quarter. He facegaurded Jabar Gaffney downfield, and rode him out of bounds with his body. Let Tasker tell it, it was a perfectly legal play. He didn't remember the 5-yard chuck rule, I guess. This play was egregious.

f. Andra Davis played great on Sunday, especially on the goal-line stand. He was all over the field all day, and made a bunch of plays.

g. Mario Henderson played better than I've ever seen him play for the Raiders, especially in the running game. He was downfield driving Broncos defenders backward. He also held up very well in pass protection, but was helped by Charlie Frye's focus on getting the ball out quickly.

h. Vonnie Holliday was very good in the pass-rushing game for the Broncos, and Robert Ayers had good moments, too. The only really good rush Elvis Dumervil had, he got called for roughing the passer.

i. Don't let me see anybody blaming Alphonso Smith for the winning TD. He was picked, clear as day, by #86 for the Raiders. In a poorly officiated game, it was another obvious penalty that wasn't called. It was offensive pass interference all the way, and he was out of position for the tackle, making it very difficult. It's true that Smith has struggled as the season has gone on, but that play wasn't his fault.

j. Finally, a word about JaMarcus Russell. He can make every throw a QB ever has to make. When he came into the game Sunday, I was actually worried about it, because he has much more physical ability than Charlie Frye. I'm not ready to say he turned a corner, but I'm sure he engendered some additional belief in his coaches and teammates than he'd been previously seeing. He got it done, given the circumstances, so all you can do is tip your hat to the guy.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games-

a. I continue not to care whether the Colts go 16-0, and I didn't get to see much of the game, due to a 10:30 PM ET conference call with some guys who work for me in Pune, India on Thursday. Ho hum, the Colts won.

I was all over the Cowboys beating the Saints, though, and I did watch that game. The Cowboys had to be tired of hearing all this stuff about how they can't win in December, and the Saints had been trying to give away a game for about a month. The Saints had a really hard time protecting Drew Brees, especially LT Jermon Bushrod. For the guy who shares a hometown with him, the jury is in for me. He's an RTO playing out of position on the left side. I think the Saints were too greedy, and didn't do enough to help him with DeMarcus Ware.

b. I made some Cowboys fan mad back in October when I proclaimed Anthony Spencer to be just a guy. Cowboys fans need to be told when their players aren't as good as the hype around them - because the hype is so strong, most of them believe it. Anyway, Spencer was fantastic on Saturday night. He was setting the edge in the running game, and he got Drew Brees 3 times, losing one to a questionable penalty in the secondary. It was the best I'd ever seen Spencer play in the NFL, and if he can keep playing like that, the Cowboys are suddenly really difficult to handle in the playoffs.

c. I was very impressed with Tony Romo's play Saturday, and it's nothing new lately. He's been playing terrific football, with 8 TDs and 0 interceptions in his last 4 games. Lazy, uninsightful MSM idiots who fixate on meaningless trends were falling over themselves to say that Romo couldn't win in December. To most of these people, the other 52 guys on a team are like garnish on the side of the plate. It's obscene how stupid that all is.

d. The Cowboys did the right thing, cutting the cord with Nick Folk. He's been terrible this season, and when you can't count on your kicker to make a 27-yard field goal, you have big problems. Of course, the guy they replaced him with, Shaun Suisham, lost his last job for missing a 20-something-yard FG against New Orleans, to put the game away, too. Kicker seems to be an issue for Dallas every year, and they really need to address it on a going-forward basis.

e. The Lions are still playing hard, I'm sure try to secure jobs for next season. They really gave Arizona a run for their money on Sunday, but came up short, to the disappointment of my buddy Chris Dillon, who was in attendance. I was pretty impressed with the play of Maurice Morris, but I've seen him flash like this a lot of times in his career, and then do nothing a week later. The guy I always like the look of is Drew Stanton, who was a second-round pick, but never got a chance to play for some reason. He had some good moments Sunday, and looked more useful than Daunte Culpepper.

f. The Cardinals can't be blowing double-figure leads if they want to get back to the Super Bowl. I was telling my brother the other day that I thought the NFC Champion would once again come down to Arizona against Philadelphia, but the Cardinals lacked crispness for a second week in a row. They'd do well to get their act together.

g. There were a lot of interesting things to see in the Cleveland-Kansas City game, which was surprising. I had no intention of paying any attention to it this weekend, but it ended up being the first game I watched when I got home Monday evening. First things, first. I've never been a big Jerome Harrison fan, but he obviously played out of his mind on Sunday for the Browns. I have seen a lot of him over the last few years, so I remain skeptical of him. Prior to Sunday, if I had to describe Harrison in a sentence this would have been it: "He's a third-down back who lacks much power, speed, or explosiveness, and shouldn't particularly scare anybody." I think his career day was equal parts the best day of his life and the significant inflation factor that comes from running against the Chiefs.

h. The Chiefs had to feel pretty good about most of their offense's performance Sunday. Matt Cassel looked outstanding, and was hurt by about 10 drops by his receivers. Dwayne Bowe was particularly feeling in touch with his inner dropsies. Maybe it was rust from his steroid vacation? Anyway, Cassel was a positive sign again, after a couple bad weeks, and the good things he did had the look of things that would work against good teams, too.

i. If you'd asked me six weeks ago about Jamaal Charles, I'd have questioned his size and power, and also his running instincts. I always saw him as a guy who missed creases and ran into tackles. The coaching he's presumably been getting seems to have clicked lately, because he's making tacklers miss more than I've ever seen. He looks really good running out of the shotgun, which he did a lot of in college at the University of Texas. He's not a bell-cow RB, but teams aren't looking for those so much anymore. He can be a very effective 50-50 tandem guy, especially if the Chiefs could find a Michael Bush-type player to complement him.

j. You know how you can look at somebody and tell when they seem to be physically uncomfortable? That's how Mark Sanchez looked to me on Sunday, in the cold of New York, kind of like a woman looks when she's constipated. I thought his ball traveled a bit better through the wind than it did a month or so ago, when he played in his first bad weather, but his clear lack of physical comfort worries me, and should worry the Jets. Sometimes, a guy who grew up in warm weather embraces the cold, and has success in it. Brett Favre immediately comes to mind. If Sanchez goes back to SoCal in the offseason to chill out, that will be a bad sign in my mind. He ought to stay in New York, and get used to the weather. You may think I am overstating this, but he's going to have to play a ton of games in the cold throughout his career if he's going to be a 10-year Jet.

k. The Shallow Thoughts fantasy team continues to save its best work for the playoffs in the Official MHR League, and was dominant Sunday, led by Aaron Rodgers' huge day. I'm now one game from a championship. Not bad for a guy who doesn't like fantasy football, and a team which was counting on Larry Johnson and Derrick Ward to be stud RBs. I've gotten solid work from both Laurence Maroney and Jason Snelling at times, which has helped. I thought of Snelling, because I have really come to like his game on the real field. He runs hard, catches the ball well, and picks up the blitz. He's a good backup to Michael Turner, and when they're both healthy, they can really alternate physically pounding a defense.

l. I'll tell you right now, Falcons FS Thomas DeCoud is going to be on the All-ST&NO Favorites team I'll be releasing next week. He ought to be in the Pro Bowl for the NFC, but that's almost certainly not going to happen. He's very mobile and smart, and he always is in great position. What sets him apart from other good safeties, though, is that he can catch the football, and he did once again on Sunday, with his third interception of the season. I like matchup safeties, and I'm a big fan of DeCoud, going back to the 2008 Draft.

m. Kerry Rhodes got benched recently, and he looks to me like he's playing with a lot more ferocity and toughness lately. Rex Ryan had him coming on a bunch of blitzes Sunday, and the Jets did a great job all day against the Atlanta offense. If they had gotten better play from Sanchez this season, the Jets would have run away with the AFC East, because that defense is real. Assuming Sanchez improves in the future, this is going to be a team to be reckoned with in the years ahead.

n. I said something nice about Jay Cutler earlier, and now I'm going to go into semi-apologist mode for him, ever so briefly. Neither of the first two interceptions he threw Sunday were really his fault. On the first, Devin Aromashadu failed to get across the face of Domonique Foxworth on a slant route, which is his job. That's 100% on the WR to execute, especially when the play called for Cutler to look right first, and come back left on time, semi-blindly. On the second pick, the RT failed to cut Jarret Johnson on a 3-step drop, and Johnson jumped up in the passing lane and made a play. I've made this point before recently, but on a 3-step drop, the DE must be cut to the ground to clear the passing lane, and the player (I think it was Kevin Shaffer, but couldn't tell for 100% sure) failed to execute. Cutler's third pick was on him, but it was a tough throw moving to his left. He threw that one right to Foxworth. If the Bears want to do a smart thing, they'll try to hire Jeremy Bates away from USC. I don't necessarily think Bates can coach Cutler out of his well-established bad habits, but he at least knows how to put him in position to be most successful.

o. It's so difficult to deal with the height of the Chargers WRs and Antonio Gates. I don't know if I really know the right answer for stopping them. I think you need to play physical with them, and try to cover them man-to-man, but that's easier said than done. It's got to be better than letting them run the sideline against cover-2 with no re-route from a CB, though. I think Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall did pretty well Sunday, and the Chargers still got the win when it counted. San Diego is overrated in some areas, but they're underrated at WR.

p. I'd be shocked if LaDainian Tomlinson is back with San Diego next season. He was obviously a great player for a long time, but he's noticeably not the same guy he used to be. When a RB starts to lose it, you can see it in his leg drive when somebody hits him. LDT is going down a lot easier than he ever did in the past. He's like Arizona Cardinals-era Emmitt Smith right now, despite having a much shorter career than Emmitt.

q. I really liked Mike Tomlin's reasoning behind his onside kick strategy Sunday. I'm taking this from Peter King's MMQB, as I'm not sure if these comments were said exclusively to him, or were something he picked up from the team's PR people.

"I'll be very bluntly honest with you, based on the way the game was going in the second half, first of all I thought with the element of surprise we had a chance to get it, but if we didn't get it and they were to score, then we would have necessary time on the clock to score or match their score. Plan A didn't work, we got the ball but we were illegal, that was the correct call, but it kind of unfolded the way you envisioned it.

"We had 30 minutes of evidence that we could drive the ball on them, we also conversely had 30 minutes of evidence to show they could also drive the ball on us. That's why we took the risk when we did. We were just trying to win the football game. There was time left in that game that had we kicked that ball away and the half had gone the way that it'd gone, they were converting third downs. They would have moved the ball down the field on us, we wouldn't have had necessary time to respond. I'm just being honest, but it starts with feeling pretty good about the element of surprise and having a good chance to get that ball, but that part of it didn't work out.''

That makes sense, right? Even if you don't get the ball, you're cutting down the amount of time the Packers will take to score, and leave your own team enough time to answer. I generally can't stand the Steelers or their highly-ignorant fan base, but I have Tomlin's back on this one. After all, it played out exactly like he thought it would, if they didn't recover the kick. Nothing proves you right like being right, right?

But then PK chimes in with his commentary:

How the mighty defense has fallen. Wow. Mike Tomlin throwing his D to the wolves.

Sigh. Like they say on ESPN, C'MON MAN! You know what you are if you trust a defense that hasn't gotten it done all day? You're a moron who deserves to lose. I really think that this is the most idiotic conventional wisdom in football, that you have to trust your defense, no matter what. The Steelers got sliced up all game, and didn't deserve to be trusted. Tomlin had the pulse of the game exactly right. Hell, if I am him, I want my defense to know that I don't trust them in that moment, and step it the hell up in practice, and in the next game. Trust is earned, not freely given.

r. Here's a news flash for Peter King. Bryant McKinnie is not a very good player, especially in pass protection. You should never judge the quality of an offensive lineman on whether they get voted to the Pro Bowl, or were picked in the first round of the draft. McKinnie is solid against the run, but he's slow-footed, and he struggles to protect against good pass rushers. Julius Peppers did dominate McKinnie Sunday night, but it's less of a special feat than PK would have you believe.

s. I think the Panthers might have something with Matt Moore. He's not the most polished player, but you can tell he has some real talent. I'm not basing that on his results, per se, but more on the way the ball leaves his hand and flies through the air. If I were John Fox, Jake Delhomme wouldn't see the field again this season unless Moore got hurt.

t. Don't worry about Brett Favre arguing with Brad Childress on the sidelines. It doesn't matter, and these things happen all the time. I don't think the Vikings quite have what it takes to win a championship, but it has nothing to do with Favre and Childress not seeing eye-to-eye in one game. I think the only good player on their offensive line is Steve Hutchinson, and the rest of them are average to below-average. I also think Adrian Peterson isn't playing very well lately, and I wonder if he's banged up, because I don't see the suddenness and power I am used to from him lately.

u. The Giants really got their defensive line going Monday night. I guess it helps to play the Redskins, who can't block anybody. I was pretty surprised by the bad play of the Redskins defense, which has been tough all year. This game was so lousy, I barely paid attention to it after the first half.

v. Why couldn't the Redskins have run THAT variation of the Hunter Smith pass against the Broncos? That was a charlie foxtrot from the start.

4. For a straight single man, I'm a pretty good dresser. I figure I'm average looking, and I could stand to drop a few pounds, so I try to help myself by making smart wardrobe decisions. I have some common sense rules, I favor versatility and have a good feel for matching, and I never, ever wear trendy, overpriced crap like Ed Hardy. I'd give myself a B-plus to an A-minus.

So I am watching the NFL Network pregame show Sunday, and I can't help but notice the gear of the well-known sartorialist Michael Irvin. He had a pretty bad suit, and I remembered a draft a few years ago, maybe 2006 or 2007, when Irvin was working for ESPN. My ex-wife walked in, and saw him, and she was all about fashion. He was wearing a brown suit, with a brown shirt, and Christine says, "He looks like a big piece of poop." I couldn't help but agree.

So, horrible suit back then, pretty bad suit Sunday, funny memory. Then, the crew took off their jackets to do a technique demonstration, and I saw the worst part of Mike's gear. His shirt had epaulets!!! (I generally hate multiple exclamation points, but epaulets make it appropriate.) If you were in the military, chances are you know what epaulets are - if not, check it out here, where they spell it differently than how I learned in the Navy.

Okay, Mike? Unless you're going to a Troop Meeting, and making Eagle Scout, no epaulets, okay? There's no good reason in the world for a normal man's shirt to have them. Just say no to pretentious clothing. I wouldn't be surprised if Ed Hardy toolbag-in-chief Christian Audigier designed Irvin's shirt, too. The orange oompa loompa spray tan would look weird on Irvin, so it would be hard to carry the complete look.

I bet those guys' shirts have epaulets. By the way, I got that pic from the coolest Facebook fan page ever.

5. So there's big news that I have to share. I am retiring ST&NO. Next week, on December 29^th, 2009 I will post my last one ever, at least as far as I am planning now. New Year, new ideas, new LASIK eye surgery on January 15^th, so I won't be nearsighted anymore. The title just wouldn't make sense anymore, and like Russell Jones, I keeps it real. I plan to move my work in a bit of a different direction in the next year, and beyond.

Since I started writing ST&NO last January, I've tried to make it league-wide. Some MHR people have expressed appreciation for that, and I think some would like my work better if it was all Broncos, all the time. It's gotten more and more league-wide in nature during the course of this regular season - at first, kind of by accident. Later, I started to realize that I wanted to position myself for a more national platform, and I've gone with it more intentionally. I thank John Bena for always letting me write whatever I want, as I've been able to drop stuff that makes me happy.

In the marketplace of ideas, there's been a lot of evolution in how fans get football information. It used to be, you could watch your local market game, the Cowboys (America's Team), and a West Coast game, and then whatever was on Monday night. Now, you can watch any game you want, if you're willing to pay $400 a season for the privilege. Twenty years ago, you had your local rag newspaper, picking up some AP reporting, and having a couple Woody Paige-style columnists. I remember sitting in the front hall of my mom's house every Monday morning, reading the recaps and poring through the box scores. Now, you can go on the internet and read whoever you want. It's a brave new world, that continues to change all the time, and a guy like me has to continually evaluate my best positioning in it.

When there were just the rags, the strong written content was at the micro (team) level, mostly because it was the only particular written content, outside of a multi-sport skimmer like Sports Illustrated or The Sporting News. With the wide proliferation of the internet in the mid-90s, your average Len Pasquarelli and John Clayton emerged at ESPN.com, and the Worldwide Leader threw a ton of resources at football, taking the quality back to the macro level. In the early to mid 00s, it became much easier for people with no access to players and coaches to get information, and also to self-publish. Web 2.0 gave some people with real talent the chance to take the quality back to the micro level, where it really belongs, to a large degree.

Well, I'm a macro kind of guy who has been working at a micro level. I actually have personal friends who've told me explicitly that they won't read ST&NO because it appears on a Broncos site. It's just too much for some people to get past. You'll remember the story about the "repugnant" guy/girl from a couple weeks ago. The person's biggest burn was:

If you were as brilliant and talented as you think you are you'd be doing something other than running a niche website no one other than diehard Broncos fans gives a damn about.

As I told the critic in my response, I am very, very proud of MHR. It's the best Broncos site in the world, and I'm really proud to have been part of its rise, and call myself a member/alumnus of the site. From John, to the staff, to the community, it's really incredible what we have here, and I will always support and promote it. I'm struggling a bit to cut to the chase, which is unlike me, but you can probably tell by now that I am announcing my departure from the MHR staff.

I've decided to launch my own football site, with a stated goal of bringing MHR-style quality to the macro level. I looked at trying to convince a lousy MSM site like CBSSports.com to pay me for running my content on their site, and even went so far as to ask a friend to make an inquiry on my behalf. I've backed away from this idea, however, as I read about Bill Simmons' frustrations with ESPN's penchant for censoring his work. Everybody knows that wouldn't work for me. I'm taking the Oprah approach, instead, and owning my own outlet. I'm pretty close to being ready to launch, but not quite close enough to share details yet. Tune into next week's triumphant ST&NO finale, and you can get all the information about it.

There's such widespread suckitude at the national level, that I feel like I have to step directly into their arena, loudly and with both feet, if I really want to go after them. I'm here to tell you, I've got something for Peter King, Mike Florio, Clayton, Pasquarelli, Don Banks, Pete Prisco, and all the rest of them. Let there be no ambiguity. I am in it to win it at the national level, and I'll be applying everything I learned here at MHR, and every other resource I can muster to help make it happen. Sound the horns, because it is most definitely on.

It's Tuesday morning as I write this last part, time to post ST&NO, head to the office, and do another call with Kuldeep and Suresh in India. Have a great week, friends, and I'll see you next Tuesday for the final edition of this column. The ST&NO concept will definitely live on at my new site, but I'll be excited to have each of you with me next week, as we close this chapter of the story, and start writing the next one. Thanks for being MHR community members, and for reading my work every week. This site is going to continue to be great, and I'm just hoping to expand the universe a little faster than the reputation of the Most Interesting Man in The World, for a change. Thanks in advance for your support. :)

Horse Tracks 11/1/09 - Broncos face tough road test in Baltimore; kickoff at 1pm ET, 11am MT

Douglas A. Lee — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 14:37:34 -0000

NYT - N.F.L. Players And Their Union Share the Blame on Head Injuries - Alan Schwarz

DB - Matchup: Broncos at Ravens - Broncos TV
Chris Hall previews today's game. Knowshon & Co. as Michael Jackson and zombies from Thriller are a must-see clip (final minute).

DB - A Closer Look: Baltimore Ravens - Gray Caldwell

DPP - McDaniels' love of the game - Lindsay Jones
"Our first team meeting that we had, I saw it was going to be totally different," Daniel Graham said. "McDaniels is a player's coach, but he demands a lot from all his players...It's not miserable to come into work, and that's a big thing. He has a positive attitude, and we do too."

DPP - Broncos' Royal feels at home in Denver - Lindsay Jones

CSG - Broncos free agents prove valuable so far - Frank Schwab

LTC - Defensive powers match up - Brian Howell

GJS - Jussel: Broncos are growing up right before our eyes
"Today will reveal a great deal about how much the Broncos have grown."

SN - Ravens need to pull one out for a change - Vinnie Iyer

CSG - Three things to watch against Baltimore - Frank Schwab

AP - Undefeated Meets Desperate In Baltimore - David Ginsburg

DPP - Klis: Pass the playbook, please

DPP - Bailey is ranked first on roster in cap number - Mike Klis

CSG - Broncos top 10: Worst free-agent signings - Frank Schwab
Oh, man. There's a LOT of pain here...

CP - Problem players flourish - Geoff Mosher
"But behind the NFL's best defense and unwavering command from new coach Josh McDaniels, the Broncos took off while Marshall got his act together."

SPT - Broncos alumni fall in game against Sailors All Stars - Joel Reichenberger

PTR - Doctors clear Steelers' Clark for Denver - Kevin Gorman

Ravens News

NFP - Wilson: Ravens' backs to the wall against undefeated Broncos

PF24x7 - Baltimore Ravens’ scouting report - Aaron Wilson

BS - Above the fray - Jamison Hensley

BS - Ravens vs. Broncos: Mike Preston's key matchups

BS - Ravens Insider
"The Ravens tried out kickers Mike Nugent and Connor Barth but didn't sign either one. It's like a precaution if Steve Hauschka can't kick Sunday. He is probable with a right ankle injury."

BS - Ravens Insider: Ravens-Broncos primer - Ken Murray

WT - Defenseless Ravens in unfamiliar territory - Bob Cohn

CCT - Commentary: Ravens almost in 'must-win' situation - Bob Blubaugh

DMN - Losses add up for Ravens' defense - Rick Gosselin

AFC West News

PFW - Chargers LB English exceeding expectations in Year One - Michael Blunda

SDUT - Bolts' win streak vs. Oakland aided by Raider turnovers - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Silence of elders tells on Raiders - Mark Zeigler

SDUT - Dobbins does his talking on the field - Tod Leonard

FH - In NFL, It's Either Shape Up or Fade Out - Kevin Blackistone

KCS - The Star’s 50 year All-Time Chiefs team - Randy Covitz

KCS - Larry Johnson’s fine is cut in half - Kent Babb

SFC - Concussion findings keep getting scarier - Ray Ratto

SFC - Sunday Punch / Hey fellas, time to be Al's pal - Scott Ostler

SFC - RAIDERS / Success might depend on getting a running start - David White

OT - Should Cable send a message? - Monte Poole

NFL News

NYT - Concussions and Congress and the Future Game - Toni Monkovic

NFL - Crowder doesn’t travel, out for Dolphins

NFL - Redskins' Samuels on IR; Blades, Westbrook undergo knee surgery

NFL - Saints rule out DT Ellis due to knee injury

NFL Opinion

NFP - Sunday at the Post - Mike Lombardi
"Who guards Brandon Marshall is a concern, but who can tackle him is a bigger concern. Domonique Foxworth will struggle to cover him, which he knows from practicing against Marshall." I'd say ignore the kicker comment, as I'm pretty sure he's referring to the Ravens...

NFP - Weekend Notes: Harris and Woodson must be physical - Matt Bowen
"I like the idea of Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal of the Broncos winning their one-on-one matchups outside the numbers—especially against press man coverage."

NFL - Will owner's 'passer interference' pay off for Titans? - Pat Kirwan
"Okay, I admit it. I was one of the early-season doubters of the Broncos' success...Denver is on the verge of being an elite team."

FH - The Once-Over: Week 8 - Knox Bardeen
"Denver, on defense, needs to pay special attention to the play action, an area of trouble for Denver but a play Baltimore runs very well."

FOX - Countdown: Giants, Eagles QBs have been shaky - John Czarnecki

ABJ - Gunslingers don't necessarily make great quarterbacks - Marla Ridenour

ESPN Insider - FBO: Crunching the Week 8 numbers
"The Ravens should be able to wear down the Broncos' run defense with constant, steady gains. The Ravens rank No. 1 in our Adjusted Line Yards metric and third in overall rush offense DVOA. Although the Broncos rank first in preventing long runs over 10 yards, they are 10th in Adjusted Line Yards and 20th in stuffing opposing runners at the line. Of particular note: The Broncos rank dead last in ALY against runs behind the left tackle. Baltimore's defense ranks 29th in the league on third down with 1-3 yards to go, but second in the league on third down with 4 or more yards to go. "

MHR Chalk Talk - Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens 2009

Steve Nichols — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:30:31 -0000

How good are the Ravens? Don't be fooled by the 3-3 record. They've beat the teams they should have (KC and CLE), and won against a tough SD team. Their losses came to teams that are pretty good (NE, CIN, and MIN). Don't sell this team short.

On the other hand, many folks are more likely to sell Denver short. Vegas has them down by 3 points at the time of this writing, despite a 6-0 record. Denver beat two teams that beat BAL (NE and CIN), as well as CLE, SD, OAK, and DAL. How good is Denver?

Special Teams - Sep and Oct players of the month (Kicker Matt Prater and Returner Eddie Royal).

Offense - Kyle Orton, who played the first four games with a protective glove has thrown only one INT (a bomb throw to end a half with no time left) and holds a 100+ QB rating.

Defense - Keeping opponents to an average 11 points a game.

But how do the teams match up? Both teams come off of a bye week, and have had ample time to draw up superior game plans. Who wins in each aspect of the game, and how should they plan the game? Let's look at some possibilities....

Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense

(Advantage in bold and italics)

Ravens Offense Broncos Defense

Points 28.2 (5th) 11 (1st)

Yards 393.2 (5th) 262.5 (2nd)

Pass 268.3 (8th) 182.8 (8th)

Run 124.8 (10th) 79.7 (3rd)

Two things come to mind when thinking of Denver's pass defense. First, the Denver secondary is legendary. Brian Dawkins at FS and Champ Bailey at CB is unbelievable. But Denver's pass rush is amazing, too. Elvis Dumervil (ROLB/RDE) is a pass-rushing machine and leads the NFL with 10 sacks. Elvis gets moved around the line to create confusion and mismatches, and his exceptionalism allows other players to make plays as well. How does the Baltimore Offense counter?

Well, that's a tricky question. In their last three games, Baltimore has given up seven sacks. Jared Gaither (LT) will play this week, but fans of both teams will hold their breath because Jared suffered a scary neck injury earlier on, and this makes things dicey.

Beyond that, Joe Flacco (QB) is playing very well with a 93.8 QB rating (and is coming off of a hurt ankle). His WRs may be a little suspect, though. Derrick Mason is a good WR, and needs to be accounted for. Todd Heap is also a fine TE. But according to Bruce (our good friend from Baltimore Beatdown) the receiving corps is having issues with passes over the middle, and is depending on sideline curls (too much). Frankly, I don't think this hurts Baltimore against Denver.

Against a great secondary, there are two things to avoid. One is the deep pass, and the other is an "out route". Both are the leading ways to get an interception, and a well-placed pass on a curl route is a safe (if boring) way to move the ball. In fact, Denver isn't averse to short hitches and curls to the edges on offense, and they move the ball just fine without interceptions in that mode. This is also a good, quick way to get rid of the ball against a good pass rush.

Baltimore's offense would be wise to stick with those curls. They have a decent running game behind backs Ray Rice with 6 yds per carry (who is also effective out of screens), and Willis McGahee (4.5 ypc). In fact, a lot of the Baltimore offense reminds me of Denver's.

Baltimore has a good running game, and they do well with short, high-percentage throws. They also make threats with screens.

This is an efficient team that doesn't bowl you over with yards, but they make their yards count and put up a lot of points. Denver is also learning the value of this kind of football. Having jettisoned a QB that put up excellent yards but a lot of INTs, Denver has moved in the direction of "game management", careful passing football and racked up wins as a result.

How does one attack such a team? Baltimore has an offensive issue that Denver's offense doesn't share - pass blocking. I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but Denver is winning the defense battles with an amazing pass rush, and they should do that here, too.

A good pass rush from the front 5 (Denver runs a 5-2 look) allows the two ILBs to account for the run, and plugs enough gaps (Denver runs a 1-gap attack) to prevent runs. But in the pass game, that same effective rush harries QBs and can break up plays in the backfield before they get started. If Baltimore can hold the Denver rush (a tall order) they can get the screens out, and make the quick, short passes to move the ball down field steadily. And while nobody is running the Broncos over in the running game (Denver holds teams to under 80 yards rushing), Baltimore needs to try to be the first. A good running game brushes back effective rushes and blitzes, and this would take away Denver's best defensive asset. Still, that's a tough order.

Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense

Broncos Offense Ravens Defense

Points 22.2 (17th) 21.7 (19th)

Yards 368.7 (9th) 332.7 (19th)

Pass 236 (12th) 241.5 (23rd)

Run 132.7 (7th) 91.2 (7th)

Remember the days when the Ravens were killers on defense, but not so hot on offense? Things have changed quickly. Denver may not light up the scoreboard, but the Ravens aren't exactly shutting down offenses, either. How do offenses beat the Ravens? In the air.

The Ravens have a strong run defense. The DL features former Broncos favorite Trevor Pryce at LDE, but the real power is at LB with LILB Ray Lewis and ROLB Terrell Suggs. Behind them is one of my favorite free safeties in the game, Ed Reed. Ed is one of those "do it all" guys that can cover the pass and slam into a RB like a freight train. But Lewis, Suggs, and Reed are having a rough time this year, and the problem is at corner.

Samari Rolle is a very good corner, but is on the PUP list (injury). He may likely not return this season. This leaves Fabian Washington (who?) at #1 corner and former Bronco nickleback Domonique Foxworth at #2. Neither player has an INT this year.

The Baltimore pass rush faces a difficult prospect, too. Denver's tackles (Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris) are both young, Pro Bowl-caliber players. Pressure will need to come up the middle, if at all. As Orton is a pocket passer, this is where rushes need to come from, anyway.

So the Ravens' best card is their run defense, which ties Denver's run offense. Not a dominating way to face the Broncos.

Denver's path to winning is classic. First, see who has the edge in the running game. If Denver establishes the run, the game is over. I don't see the Ravens stopping the pass in any event. If Denver can run, they can mix up the run and pass, and go from there. The best option may not be the runs up the gut (Denver is awful on short-yardage, 3rd-down scenarios). Denver should test the edges.

Whether the run works or not, expect Denver to play 3 WR (or more) sets. This forces Baltimore to take LBs off the field (their strength) and to replace them with corners (their weakness). Denver has excellence at WR in depth:

Brandon Marshall, who zigzags and plows overs defenders with ease,
Eddie Royal, who ran a kick return and punt return for TDs against the Chargers in the last game,
Jabar Gaffney, who runs routes perfectly in the Denver system (the same routes he ran in NE),
Brandon Stokley, who switches up at slot with Jabar, and has experience, toughness, and great hands.

Between Orton's intelligent ball-handling, Denver's receivers, and the weakness at Baltimore's CBs, this is the matchup Denver fans should look forward to the most - the Denver passing game. If I'm running Baltimore's defense, I put the CBs in zone and play bend-don't-break.

Keys to the Game

Denver

Stop the run. I don't think Baltimore can win as a one-dimensional offense.
Get the early lead. Denver has been starting slow, but an early lead takes away the Baltimore running game.
Avoid turnovers. Baltimore can win this game if they win on field position. They can do this with a key fumble recovery or two. They shouldn't get many chances for INTs against Orton.

Baltimore

Win the time of possession battle. Keep the ball away from Denver's offense.
Win the special teams battle. Don't let Royal get going on punts or kicks. Denver has a new punter this week - make the most of it. Field position!
Baltimore has been able to put up a lot of points this year. Denver is NOT a shootout team.

Conclusion

Both teams are coming off of a bye. The game is in Baltimore, and Baltimore doesn't want to be 3-4 after this week. The weather (at the time of this writing) is expected to be rain. This favors defense and running. For this matchup, this would favor Baltimore.

On the other hand, Denver beats Baltimore in 6 of 8 comparisons I've listed above, and ties in two (based in relative League rankings). In terms of player matchups, I give Denver the advantage in depth. In fact, I give Denver the edge or tie at every player position comparison, including STs (Den) and Coaching (Den).

In my mind, Baltimore is very underrated. While their AFC North rivals PITT and CIN look good this year, BAL is a team that could turn on a dime and improve quickly. The only area that I believe they are stuck without improvement in is cornerbacks.

I don't expect to pick Denver every game this year. The only game I didn't pick Denver was against NE, and I called that one "too close to call". Sure enough, that game went into overtime, so I'll call that a "correct". Tough games still loom on the horizon (Indy and NYGs), but for now, Denver has proven they are for real and I'll stick with them.

Poll

Other than being 6-0, what has been the biggest surprise so far?

Royal returns a kick and a punt for TDs in same game.

186 votes

Doom leads the League in sacks near season half mark.

269 votes

Orton has only 1 INT this year (and that was on a hail mary).

730 votes

1185 votes | Poll has closed

Champ Bailey wins Broncos' Walter Payton Man of the Year Award

John Bena — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 16:10:10 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

4 months ago: Denver Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey takes part in drills during a football training camp session conducted in Invesco Field at Mile High in Denver on Monday, Aug. 10, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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The Denver Broncos selected cornerback Champ Bailey as their Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year award recipient for the second consecutive year, it was announced. This prestigious award historically recognizes a player for outstanding leadership both on the field and in the community.

Bailey's name will be submitted to the NFL as the Broncos' nominee for the national Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year award, which is announced annually at the Super Bowl. He was selected by a committee of representatives from various business departments within the Broncos' organization and Stadium Management Company from a group of finalists that included tight end Daniel Graham, tackle Ryan Harris and outside linebacker/defensive end Darrell Reid.

Bailey was honored for his years of service supporting the Denver Rescue Mission and most notably the Broncos Youth Center located at its Crossing Facility, which provides long-term rehabilitation and transitional housing. The 11th-year player and eight-time Pro Bowl choice will receive a $10,000 donation from the Broncos toward a charitable cause of his choice.

Graham, Harris and Reid also will receive $2,000 donations toward a charitable cause of their choice.

Additionally, the organization honored several other players for their work in the community. Safeties Josh Barrett and David Bruton, tackle Ryan Clady, cornerback D.J. Johnson, defensive lineman Kenny Peterson, tight end Tony Scheffler, cornerback Jack Williams and inside linebacker Wesley Woodyard were named Denver Broncos Community Ambassadors in recognition of their "up-and-coming" community leadership.

Recent Broncos nominees for the Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year award include Bailey (2008), cornerback Domonique Foxworth (2007), wide receiver Rod Smith (2006 and '04), safety John Lynch (2005), linebacker Ian Gold (2003) and wide receiver Ed McCaffrey (2002).

Quarterback John Elway (1992) is the only Broncos player to win the national award, which was first given in 1970 and renamed after the Chicago Bears' Pro Football Hall of Fame running back in 1999.

Horse Tracks 10/28/09 - Kern catches on with Titans

Douglas A. Lee — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 12:01:17 -0000

NYT - In Gay Culverhouse, N.F.L. Players With Head Injuries Find a Voice - Alan Schwarz

DB - Recovered and Ready For Baltimore Battle - Patrick Smyth
Notes from the weekly press release.

DPP - Broncos take precautions against flu - Jeff Legwold
The Titans signed Brett Kern and released punter Reggie Hodges. One day you're 6-0, couple days later you're 0-6. Ouch. Well, at least he has a new gig...best of luck, Brett!

DPP - Analysis: Bigger, better QBs ahead for Broncos "D" - Jeff Legwold

LTC - Bold Broncos return from bye week intent on keeping winning formula in place - Brian Howell

LTC - Broncos’ once-daunting schedule now a welcome challenge for team - Brian Howell

PFW - Week Eight matchup tidbits

DPP - Marshall catches shot on TV

VS - PRO BOWL WIDE RECEIVER BRANDON MARSHALL TO CALL THE PLAYS ON NOV. 3 EPISODE OF SPORTS SOUP

DB - Baltimore Memories - Jim Saccomano
Sacco recalls Elway's first trip to B'more as a Bronco.

DB - Service Information for Walt Daniels

DB - Ask Tony Scheffler...

CBS4 - Elway Uses Bye Week To Talk A Little Baseball - Matthew Buettner

Ravens News

BS - Q & A with Ravens cornerback Domonique Foxworth - Edward Lee

BS - Ravens turning to youth movement at linebacker - Ken Murray

NFP - Wilson: Ravens' secondary hoping to bounce back against Broncos

AFC West News

ESPN - How I See It: AFC West Stock Watch - Bill Williamson

SDUT - Scouting the Raiders

KCS - Father says he's among those hurt by Larry Johnson's remarks - Kent Babb

KCS - Chiefs Notebook | Haley targets 'minus plays' - Kent Babb

SFC - 10 quick thoughts on quarterbacks and winning - Scott Ostler

NFL News

NFL - Redskins executive Cerrato defends offseason roster decisions

USAT - Redskins fans aim vitriol at Daniel Snyder as team's heavy-handed tactics questioned - Sean Leahy

NFL - Report: Titans owner Adams wants Young to start at QB vs. Jaguars

NFL - Ex-Saints RB Stecker signs with Falcons; S Moore out for season

NFL - Niners RT Pashos out for season with shoulder injury

NFL - Broken finger might sideline Jaguars CB Mathis vs. Titans

NFL - Miller rejoins Jets to fill special-teams void left by Washington

BN - Bills work out journeyman QB Ramsey - Mark Gaughan

NFL Opinion

NYT - Being Gay in the N.F.L.: ‘The Only Thing We Need Is a Hero’ - Toni Monkovic

NFP - Diner morning news: Lessons for Snyder - Mike Lombardi

NFP - Tavern talk: Dolphins must control the clock - Mike Lombardi

SI - Top 10 revenge games in NFL history - Don Banks
How about TD and Derek Loville putting up almost 300 yards rushing on the Jags in the '97 Playoffs? No, I know the '97 Revenge Tour doesn't belong on this list; but I just wanted to remind y'all of it...Jacksonville, then KC, then Pittsburgh and GB - all teams that had handed Denver some big losses in the '96 and '97 seasons...

SI - Bad quarterbacks, new front offices common with bad NFL teams - Peter King

NFL - These guys are bad: Six teams in big trouble after Week 7 - Vic Carucci

NFL - Delhomme playing miserably, but he might be Panthers' best option - Bucky Brooks

USAT - Ex-Packer Freeman: Lambeau's boos won't shake Brett Favre - Jim Corbett

NFP - Getting behind the Ware deal - Andrew Brandt

NFP - Will Fisher listen to Bud and start VY? - Matt Bowen

NFP - A look at Bradford's NFL future - Jack Bechta

Y! - Bad NFL teams turn sports books into losers - Dan Wetzel

Y! - Rams, Titans at risk of establishing '300 club' - Jason Cole

SN - Collection of castoffs behind Bengals' success - Dennis Dillon

CR - Cutler hasn't performed up to expectations in Chicago - Steve Doerschuk

FOX - Schein 9: Favre in for rough day at Lambeau

CBS - Smith's fresh start, outside threat Crabtree could awaken Niners - Clark Judge

ESPN - Washington Redskins DT Albert Haynesworth races powerboats but fails to speed his team's progress - Jeffri Chadiha

FH - Studs and Duds: Cars-On Target - Shane Bacon

NYT - Favre’s Interception, and ‘Tackle,’ Against the Steelers - Toni Monkovic
Did anyone else notice this? What a pathetic, half-hearted attempt at a tackle...and we're not talking about a pick-6 when you're already down 3 TDs. We're talking about a pick-6 when the game hangs in the balance...

PFW - MVP Meter: Schaub on the rise

PFW - Rookie Meter: Crabtree impresses in debut

NFP - Scout’s notebook: defensive review - Wes Bunting

CBS - Injury might help Bradford's chances for success in NFL - Charley Casserly

Power Rankings

NFL - Expert Rankings: Week 7

Y! - Defensive back grows as latest glamour spot - Mike Silver

PFW - Week Eight power rankings

CBS - Power Rankings: Defense gives Cardinals extra lift - Pete Prisco

ESPN - NFL Power Rankings Week 8

FH - NFL Power Rankings, Week 8: Return of The Kings

USAT - Freefall: Reeling Giants tumble in power ranks as Saints reign

USAT - Jeff Sagarin computer ratings

Baltimore’s Struggling Defense: A Warning for the 49ers

raorao — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 20:00:28 -0000

by Jim Mone - AP

2 months ago: Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (28) eludes an attempted tackle by Baltimore Ravens safety Ed Reed (20) in the fourth quarter while racing 58 yards in an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 18, 2009, in Minneapolis. The Vikings won 33-31. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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Hey NinersNation, I’m Rao: A longtime 49ers fan and Bay Area expat in DC who is forced to suffer through Singletary-less football games every Sunday. As a part of Fooch’s quest to dominate the football blogosphere, I’ll be writing weekly feature stories on important issues around the league and why we, as Niners fans, should care. First up: Why the Baltimore defense is falling apart, and what we can learn from it.

After a three game losing streak, the Baltimore Ravens are going through a bye week identity crisis. For ten years, the Ravens have known exactly who they were: A physical, smash mouth defense, led by Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, that dragged its offense along for the ride – basically what the 49ers aspire to be in coming years, if not later this season. After years of waiting, however, their offense finally came together in 2008, and this season had Ravens’ fans talking dynasties and superbowls. But a funny thing happened in the first six weeks of the season: the heralded Baltimore defense forgot to show up.

Make no mistake, the 2009 Baltimore defense is not the squad that it once was. The Ravens last year ranked in the top 3 in total defense, pass yards allowed, and running yards allowed, but this year they are averaging a mediocre 333 yards allowed per game. Opposing quarterbacks are posting a 63% completion rate and an 89 point passer rating on average against the Ravens, which would have been impossible in 2008. That year, the Ravens only allowed four teams to score more than 24 points against them – a number that has already been matched this season. So what's going on here?

A third-rate secondary. The unit’s clearest problem is their back end: Specifically, their inability to cover anyone. The team has allowed 242 yards per game in the air, ranking them 22nd in the league, and only five teams have allowed more plays of 20+ yards. Sure, Baltimore has played teams with good passing games, but they make questionable receivers look like superstars – no one can excuse allowing Vikings WR Sidney Rice a 176 yard game. With the loss of veteran cornerback Samari Rolle in the offseason, the Ravens have the untested CBs struggling in the position and instead of making big plays, they have a penchant for giving them up. The Ravens have already allowed 6 passes of 40 yards or more, matching their total for the entire 2008 season. This is a unit that is constantly tested by opponents and fails miserably – as Baltimore Beatdown blogger Bruce Raffel colorfully put it, "Our cornerbacks couldn't cover a sleeping homeless guy with a blanket."

It all starts with the front office. To some extent, these problems are a result of poor management decisions: Two big offseason acquisitions, CB Domonique Foxworth and Chris Carr, have so far seemed to be busts. Nickel back Carr, particularly, has been repeatedly beaten in obvious passing situations, like when Cincinnati’s Andre Caldwell torched him for the game winning touchdown in week 5. Some blame can be passed on to the coaching staff as well: New defensive coordinator Greg Mattison, replacing defensive genius Rex Ryan, lacks the former’s knack for creative blitzing schemes and has instituted a more vanilla defense.

"Veteran" sometimes just means old. But secondary play this bad can’t just be caused by suspect play calling or a few bad players. The more likely reason: The Baltimore defense is finally showing signs of its age all around. ILB Ray Lewis is entering his 14th season, and lacks the speed and instinct he once had; FootballOutsiders argued he’s not even in the top 10 LB’s in the league anymore, and his play has unquestionable suffered this season. Fellow linebackers Terrell Suggs and Jarret Johnson have also slowed with time, hurting their ability to cover the middle of the field effectively and putting even more pressure on the strugging secondary. This front seven is still solid – they rank sixth against the running game with 3.5 yards per carry, and 11th in sacks – but its no longer as dominant as it once was, and it can’t make up for the team’s questionable back end play in the way it did in 2008. This is a unit that got its hands on one of every four passes thrown last season, and ranked number 1 on fourth down. Those numbers have returned to Earth in 2008, and the secondary is paying the price for it.

The house always wins. Some would argue that the unit is salvaged by the freakishly effective strong safety Ed Reed. In all fairness, he can always be counted on to come up with a big play at least once a week, like his spectacular forced fumble in week 5. But the reason he is so successful is because he takes risks – playing receivers close and jumping routes to come up with big interceptions – and gamblers always lose in the long run. When this team had an elite pass rush, like it did in 2006, such tactics made sense, since quarterbacks were too busy avoiding Ray Lewis to play chess games with Baltimore’s secondary. Those days are over now, and Ed Reed’s aggressive style of play is as likely to lead to big plays for the other team as quarterbacks have more time in the pocket.

Whether it’s because of their aging stars, poor game planning, or just bad play, the Ravens defense this season seems like it won’t be the juggernaut it once was. Their season could still be salvaged on the shoulders of Joe Flacco, but, as of now, they sit in third place in the NFC North with the Colts, Broncos, and two games against the Steelers still on the schedule. What does this mean to us Niners fans? Outside of one less team to fear in the playoffs, it’s a warning that solid defense doesn’t last forever. The difference between a great defense and a mediocre one isn’t big in the NFL, and as Baltimore’s struggles show, defensive dynasties are quickly destroyed by age and injury. Every year with a struggling offense is another year our defense gets older and closer to mediocrity. So here’s hoping it doesn’t take until Patrick Willis’ 14th season for the 49ers to find their own Joe Flacco.

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 12:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

2 months ago: Denver Broncos coach Josh McDaniels salutes the crowd after the Broncos defeated the New England Patriots 20-17 in overtime in an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Is anybody else feeling like they could get used to feeling like this on a Tuesday? It's great to be 5-0, isn't it? Maybe Mark Kiszla is right, and we should all join him in welcoming Kyle Orton to Denver, since MHR is clearly bringing up the rear, there. Y'all know how skeptical I have been. Despite our ongoing skepticism, and community-wide propensity for all things negative, we press on. Ready..... BEGIN!!!!

1. Speaking of my skepticism, I was pretty high on this team, heading into the first game.

This is an 11-5 football team, and it's one that is only going to improve as it adds more quality talent in the next few years. I put my money where my mouth is too, donating $11 to the Susan G. Komen Race For The Cure, on John Bena's wife's behalf. Please do the same thing, if you can, by donating $1 for every win you think the Broncos will get this season. Things have to break right for that to happen, sure, but I think they will. Forget last season, this is a totally different thing.

Well, that caused a stir. John Bena took a beating on Twitter about it, and even my brother Chris thought I was about 4 games too generous. At this point, I am frankly wondering if I shorted the Susan G Komen outfit by a buck or two. One mea culpa though.

By the way, the Broncos five losses are to the Patriots, Giants, and Raiders at home, and the Chargers and Eagles on the road. I know a lot of people will groan at the thought of losing to Oakland at home, but let's face it, the Broncos annually lose a game they have no business losing, and I had a feeling that that would be the one. I think they can beat Baltimore and Pittsburgh, because they protect the QB, and will be strong defensively against the run. It's about matchups, in those cases. Really, I believe that the Broncos can beat any team on their schedule if they execute, and consistently do the things you need to do to win football games.

I had the Broncos going to 4-0, (in case anybody claims nobody did), before losing both (Sunday) to the Patriots and next Monday night to the Chargers. They beat the Patriots, and I am pretty sure they'll beat the Chargers too, to move to 6-0. I also don't think there is any way they lose to the Raiders, with the consistent preparation and focus they've shown, and Oakland's extreme awfulness. So, even the most optimistic reasonable guy you know may have been underselling this team.

I am not much of a stats guy, but are you ready for an unbelievable one? In five weeks, the Broncos have made zero personnel moves. For all you hear about how much "turmoil" surrounded this team in the offseason, there has been absolutely none in the regular season. Of course, having had no major injuries helps, but it's really indicative of the quality of the team's personnel plan. There was no area where the staff thought incorrectly that the personnel would be good enough. It's good enough everywhere.

There is a lot of reason to really like this team. When the score was 10-0 in the first quarter, my father (Ed) called me, like he does when things aren't going that well for the Broncos. This is the conversation, practically word-for-word.

Ed: What's going on with your boys?

Ted: (A little annoyed.) Nothing, they had a good drive, but missed a field goal, and then they fumbled. Then they held the Patriots to a field goal despite really favorable field position. I'm not worried about it yet. These things happen.

Ed: I don't know...

Ted: This team has shown an ability to be resilient, and make adjustments. I think they'll hang in there, and be okay. (More annoyed, because the commercial was ending, and the game was restarting.) They just (bleeped) up a couple times, it's not the end of the world.

Ed: We'll see....

Ted: Yes, we will. I have to go, so I can pay attention.

Ed: Okay, when you write your analysis, you should mention that your expert father thinks they played like (bleep) because of those ugly uniforms.

Like me, my father is a former United States sailor (a Chief Nuke Machinist Mate), and we tend to employ some sailors' vocabulary when we speak. (In the interest of authenticity, I thought everybody should know that.)

I think back to the last few years, and there is a striking difference with this team. I think of 2005, and the Broncos hardly ever trailed in that season. Jake Plummer was made to play low-risk football, the defense was solid, and the Broncos ran the ball very well. If the plan was executed, the Broncos were going to win. Once it wasn't, in the AFC Championship Game, there was no coming back.

Between 2006-2008, the team was very mistake-prone, on both offense and defense (after the first 6 games of 2006). Generally, you'd have the feeling that if a player or unit made a mistake, that a long day of repeat mistakes would be sure to follow. Think of all the times Jay Cutler played the team out of games, or the defense took a holiday from tackling (or both happened in the same game, like the early season Chiefs game last season). There was always a puncher's chance, but you felt like every mistake was the killer.

I have a tremendous amount of faith in this team's ability to overcome mistakes. In the short amount of time they've been together, I've seen them do it a lot of times. It's not like they're making a lot of mistakes, but they show the ability to settle down and re-focus, no matter what happens. The 2008 Broncos would have gotten blown out today, no question about it. This team hangs in there, gets back to playing solid football, and gets in position to win in the end. It happened against Cincinnati, it happened against Dallas, and it happened again today. (Of course, there never was one second where the Browns or Raiders had an apparent chance, so there was no particular need to hang in there in those games.)

Check out this tweet from Darrell Reid, from Sunday night:

@Footz95: Bronco Fans Please 4Give Me 4 My Penalty That Almost Cost Us The Game. Luckily Its A Team Sport And My Teammates Overcame That Play. Thank U

That's pure class and accountability, and it's emblematic of this team. There was nothing about how the penalty was kind of ticky-tack, even if it was. He knows the rules, he ran into the guy's leg, and he is accountable for his mistake.

It's a gift to be able to feel like this, and I think only probably Patriots, Steelers, and Colts fans have been able to do so consistently, in recent memory. I think Giants and Saints fans probably can right now. Somehow, our team is going to keep focused, and find a way to be in the game until the final gun. What a great new Broncos fan reality.

2. Information From My Eyes, Patriots at Broncos:

a. The WRs for the Broncos did great work all game on Sunday. They ran a ton of hitches, and really got out of their breaks well on them. They also really caught the ball.

b. Andra Davis and D.J. Williams both missed clean sacks on Tom Brady, on delayed blitzes. It sure would have been nice to have those sacks, at the time.

c. I thought the use of Russ Hochstein as a FB was a nice touch a few times. It's been hit or miss this season, and it hit Sunday.

d. Both Brandon Marshall TDs were emblematic of his improvement as an all-around player. He made plays with his physicality, which he hadn't ever fully harnessed in past years. There was no sideways running Sunday, just good routes and power.

e. That Ben Watson TD was evidently a mistake by D.J. Williams, who from the looks of the rest of the scheme, and Wesley Woodyard's reaction, should have stayed in zone coverage, instead of following the underneath crosser.

f. Maybe Kyle Orton was so fantastic because he read Mark Kiszla's column before the game. Feeling like "one of us" has to go a long way, right?

g. That was a joke, of course, but Orton really did look as good as I have ever seen him. His feet were calm, active, and precise, his decisions were quick and correct, and his throws were consistently on the money. He looked like Tom Brady looks on a good day, and that's no overstatement.

h. I want to see a QB sneak on a short-yardage play one of these days. I am tired of seeing these handoff plays get blown up by quick penetration, usually over Ben Hamilton.

i. WOW, did Josh McDaniels ever flame-spray Mike Priefer and Keith Burns over that Darrell Reid penalty. He had a point. There was no particular need to be halfway rushing that punt, in that situation. Honestly, I am a believer in not trying to block a punt at all, unless there's 6 or more yards to go. That mitigates the risk of running into the kicker.

j. If you remember the second-down play in the 4th quarter, with about 10 minutes to go, where Brady threw deep and the ball was broken up by Brian Dawkins, the real play was made by D.J.Williams, in covering Wes Welker one-on-one. Brady clearly wanted to go there, and it was blanketed. On the next play, Brady did throw to Welker, and Champ Bailey had great coverage. The Broncos did a great job taking Welker away in the second half.

k. Everybody knows I wasn't that high on the Knowshon Moreno pick when it was made, but I have come to really love this player. He is going to be a superstar for years to come. I especially appreciate his skill at picking up the blitz, which is rare for a rookie.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games:

a. I had the Bengals-Ravens game on my fixed screen Sunday, for the duration. The key observation from that game is that I had it slightly wrong a couple weeks ago, when I said that the Ravens were without any glaring weaknesses. Their cornerbacks are below average, and they can be killed outside the numbers. Old friend Domonique Foxworth is a good guy, but an average-at-best player. Fabian Washington isn't even as good as that. Particularly if you can block the Ravens' pressure packages, there is a lot of opportunity for success.

b. It is, however, best to stay out of the middle of the field, with any kind of risky throws. Ed Reed is as great as ever, and we all know about Ray Lewis. Reed made a couple big plays Sunday, stripping Chad Ochocinco on a long gainer before the first half ended, and then also returning an interception for a TD later. The Bengals dominated this game, and Reed and Ray Rice were the Ravens' only real positives, and managed to keep the Ravens in it.

c. Matt Cassel says he wants to find the right "anecdote" to losing. The Chiefs ought to start by drafting a lot more speed, because they're the slowest team in the NFL, ahead of their opponent Sunday, Dallas. The Chiefs are going to have another very high draft pick this year, because they are really horrible. If I were Scott Pioli, I would do everything possible to get below the Top 10, because a third straight very high pick, along with Cassel's contract, is going to really mess up their salary structure, a la Oakland. I would give a top pick away, straight-up, for the 12th pick, in their situation. Bill Polian had it right when he said that you don't get good by picking high in the draft every year. Unless you're taking a can't-miss QB, like Peyton Manning, nobody is worth the money you have to pay out.

d. Speaking of the Chiefs, this has gone mostly under the radar, but they're not playing Derrick Johnson, their best linebacker. He was their best defensive player in 2008, and now he's frozen out for some undisclosed reason. If I were a 40-front team, I'd be calling the Chiefs before the trade deadline next week. I bet he could be had for a 5th-rounder.

e. Have you ever seen that show, Intervention, on A&E? I know I have a pretty male-heavy readership, and it's mostly targeted toward a female demographic, so I ask, rather than assume. Anyway, it's not what I would call uplifting television. There's always some really troubled person, with drugs, or gambling, or compulsive shopping, or whatever. Their family loves them, and wants to help get them on the straight and narrow, but addiction is really hard (my 3-year anniversary of quitting smoking is next Monday, so trust me, I have an idea about addiction).

Anyway, the Jaguars remind me of an addict who is trying to get clean, and tries hard, and does well for a while, and then has a staggering, messy relapse. Jacksonville's addiction is to playing undisciplined and stupid football. The last two weeks, against Houston and Tennessee, the Jags had their act together. Sunday, against Seattle, they relapsed, and got completely embarassed. Rashean Mathis, a good CB, had a horrid game, and got out of position repeatedly. I think Jack Del Rio's days have to be numbered, because his program just isn't getting the team to where they need to be. I'm not picking them in any more games this year, either, unless it's against an obviously terrible team. Sometimes, even though you may love the addict, they won't let themselves be helped, and you have to cut them off.

f. The 49ers are not addicted to undisciplined football, but they sure played like the Jaguars West on Sunday. Watching the Short Cut, I really feel like they lost their composure after Roddy White's 90-yard TD in the second quarter. Nate Clements got beat on that play, and had a tough game overall. The defense was physical, and maintained their run lanes, but didn't tackle well, at all. I expect that Mike Singletary will re-focus his team, and they'll show better in their next game, after their bye. Since they're clearly not built to play from behind, they need to establish early leads.

g. A lot was made of Dre' Bly's idiotic celebration Sunday, but Donnie Avery deserves some scorn too, for dancing after a TD catch, when it made the score 31-10 Vikings, with 6 minutes to go. That's just clown-like. Hand the ball to the Field Judge, and get back to your sideline.

h. Matt Schaub threw a noodle-armed out route Sunday, which Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie took back for the game-winning TD. Even after that, Schaub drove the team the length of the field, before the Cardinals held them on 4th and goal from the 1. The problem with being a zone-blocking team, as we've seen, is that you tend to struggle in short yardage situations, and the Texans really struggle with them.

i. I got called "ignorant" once by our dear friend/Colts blogger BigBlueShoe for saying that Anthony Gonzalez was a below-average starter. I considered it an honor, because I am happy to disagree with anybody. (Evaluation is a function of what I see, not what anybody thinks they know, and by extension, that they think I should "know.") In any case, Gonzalez, who is from 3 towns west of where I live, is going to stuggle to get on the field when he gets healthy. Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon have done fantastic work this season, and they're both better players than Gonzalez. Collie is smooth in his routes, and fundamentally sound, and Garcon is fast and fluid. Gonzalez struggles to get off press coverage, and as Mike Shanahan once said, if you can't get off press coverage, you'll be selling cars before too long.

j. The Steelers defense looks extremely beatable lately, especially if you can pass protect. The Lions did a lot of good stuff offensively Sunday, and lost only because they couldn't contain James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley. Trust me, they're not a terrible team team this season.

k. Josh Johnson looked like an NFL starting QB on Sunday, which is an accomplishment, for your second career start, against a defense like Philadelphia's. His stats were pedestrian (26-50, 240 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT with 5 carries for 40 yards), but he passed the eye test. His throws were mostly accurate and decisive, and he was victimized by quite a few drops, at least 6 or 7.

l. I haven't gotten a great look at Jason Peters yet this regular season, and I have been wanting to. Sunday's game didn't show me much, because Gaines Adams just looks clueless on the field. LDE Jimmy Wilkerson got 3 sacks for the Buccaneers, and lazy analysis would lead me to criticize RT Winston Justice, who I am typically not a big fan of. Thing is, I looked at the plays, and none were particularly bad plays by Justice. One was an overload, where the RG picked up Wilkerson, and on the other two, Donovan McNabb rolled into a decently-blocked Wilkerson.

m. ST&NO favorite Channing Crowder had a fantastic game on Monday Night, and really backed up his smack talk from the spring with Rex Ryan. Another ST&NO favorite, Sean Smith, did not have a particularly great game. He struggled a little with Braylon Edwards, and while he didn't embarass himself, he has looked a lot better in other games. He was still the best CB the Dolphins had, as Vontae Davis and Will Allen both struggled worse.

n. I called this just last Tuesday with Edwards. He got out of Cleveland, and he's going to flourish in New York. He always thought of Cleveland as a non-cosmopolitan place, even to a greater extent than what is really true. (It's medium in its cosmopolitan-ness; well behind the major cities, but well ahead of a place like Jacksonville.) Edwards also felt like Ohio fans secretly hated him because he is a Michigan guy. The enmity between OSU and Michigan people is pretty real, for Big 10 country anyway, but Clevelanders are almost universally Browns fans before they're OSU fans. It's an NFL town, first, no question about it. If Edwards did well for the Browns, he'd have gotten plenty of love here.

My read on Edwards' personality, from living in the same town, is that the fact that he comes from a fairly affluent, two-parent, suburban background works against his ability to be a great player. He knows he has options outside of football. Poor kids need football, and many dedicate themselves fully to it, but I don't think Edwards has ever felt like he needs it. (For an example, there's the famous story of him asking Will Demps how to get into modeling and acting, between plays, during a game with the Texans).

I expect that Edwards will be very good for the Jets, and get himself a good contract extension after this season. New York is the town he wants to be in, and at his best, he can be like Tiki Barber, a guy who is interested in a lot of other stuff, but finally focuses pretty well on football, and has some good years under some tough coaching. Just don't be the person who believes the nonsense about him being a bad player, because he is not one.

n. The Dolphins offensive line is really one-dimensional, because their Tackles, Jake Long and Vernon Carey, severely lack foot quickness. Both guys can really move defenders off the ball in the running game, though. I am a big fan of Justin Smiley at LG; he's a mauler. The Dolphins do well in their wildcat stuff, but I think they should play more with their QB under center, to generate opportunities in the play-action game. It's the only way their QB will ever be able to consistently take a very deep dropback, unless they want to max-protect with a limited pattern.

o. Wow.... two successful fake punts in one first half by the Jets. I don't know if I have ever seen that before. Brad Smith was almost stopped on the second one, but he managed to get away from the tackle.

p. Chad Henne has looked much better than I thought he could play the last two weeks, but I am not sold on some things. For one thing, since when do QBs have lousy, jail-house looking tattoos, or any tattoos at all? It's like when an enlisted guy in the military becomes an officer, and suddenly looks a little different, sporting a bunch of ink. (My buddy who is getting married in Dallas in about 2 weeks is actually one of these.) Anyway, it's weird to see a QB with that going on. As a player, he looked really good, though.

q. Ted Ginn put a pretty humbling move on Darrelle Revis in the 4th quarter Monday Night. When you hear scouts talk about suddenness, Ginn is not a guy who really has it, as opposed to somebody like Percy Harvin, who does. Ginn does, however, have world-class speed once he gets going, and he ran by the outstanding Revis for a go-ahead TD.

r. I usually ignore MNF while I write the bulk of ST&NO on Monday nights, but this Dolphins-Jets game was terrific. Both of these teams are playoff-caliber teams, and only one of them will probably make it.

s. The Packers had a bye week, and signed Mark Tauscher, which was smart. I think he is below-average, (and so is Chad Clifton), but they are a damnsight better than Daryn Colledge and Allen Barbre. If Aaron Rodgers can get sacked only 3-4 times per game, as opposed to 8-9, the Packers would have a better chance to beat good teams. Rodgers does tend to hold the ball too long at times, and I am sure the Packers are working with him on that, as well.

t. There were a lot of lousy games this weekend, which weren't particularly relevant to anything. I didn't bother with them. (That means you, Buffalo-Cleveland and Washington-Carolina.)

4. Between The Lines - Patriots at Broncos

a. The Patriots pass-protected very well in this game, much better than I expected them to. Matt Light and Nick Kaczur really held their own against Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers, and others. The Broncos mostly tried to play coverage, and generally didn't blitz a lot, but the Patriots handled their 3- and 4-man rushes virtually every time. Once Light was injured, and replaced by Sebastian Vollmer, I felt like the Patriots expressly didn't want to have him singled up on anybody, and they got more conservative with their protection calls. Of course, on the key play where Vonnie Holliday sacked and stripped Brady, and Dumervil recovered, that was only a 4-man rush, and Vollmer was the victim. The Patriots won this battle on volume, but he Broncos got the biggest play.

b. The Broncos also were outstanding in protection. Orton was never significantly pressured during the game, and the two sacks he took were both coverage sacks, delivered by LBs Rob Ninkovich and Tully Banta-Cain. Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris were outstanding as usual. Although Clady did have Banta-Cain on his sack, it's hard to call the play Ryan's fault. Pressure up the middle forced Orton to step backwards, into the area where Clady had ridden Banta-Cain. Sometimes you take a hit for doing your job right. The interior was strong in protection too, especially Chris Kuper. He does a great job anchoring against power rushers. The Broncos were terrific in this area, and won it going away.

c. The Patriots seemed to want to run the ball at Ryan McBean and Mario Haggan, and had a bit of success at it early with Sammy Morris. After that, they seemed to get away from that plan, only running much from shotgun looks. The Broncos defensive line was up to the task, consistently holding the line of scrimmage, as they have in all five games. Noteworthy performances were turned in by Ronald Fields, Le Kevin Smith, and Kenny Peterson, in addition to McBean. These big guys just continue to hold up. Logan Mankins was tough for the Patriots, and Dan Koppen was steady and crafty. Kaczur had a couple nice early blocks on the opening possession too. This battle was pretty even, in the final analysis.

d. Vince Wilfork was the best all-around player on the field on Sunday, and he couldn't be blocked. If the Patriots don't pay him, I'll be shocked, but there are actually rumblings that they may not. The rest of the Patriots defensive line got pushed around in the running game. The Broncos blockers were terrific in opening up holes for Knowshon Moreno and LaMont Jordan. Clady, Harris, and Kuper were especially noteworthy for their efforts in the running game. Wilfork did make a key stop on third-and-short, and blew up Hamilton on the play. Moreno's 4.2 yard average was a lot better than teams usually get from the Patriots. This is a win for the Broncos.

e. Remember a year ago, when the Patriots physically dominated the Broncos on both lines? That did not happen Sunday. The matchup was pretty even, with a slight edge going to the Broncos. This was very important to the final outcome of the game, as always.

(I am scrapping the BTL feature for another game. I am pretty overloaded lately, and I need to save the 90 minutes per week. It seemed like the best place to cut from. Sorry for anybody who will miss it.)

5. Weird comment from Pat Kirwan on NFL.com:

5. Things I didn't like

When the visiting Patriots lost the coin toss in overtime and the Broncos drove the field and kicked a winning field goal, it left me wanting more than that to decide a winner. Wouldn't it have been great if, after Denver's field goal, Tom Brady had one drive to score a touchdown?

Is Kirwan saying that Brady should get even more special treatment, because he's Brady, or is he saying that the NFL should allow both teams to get the ball at least once in overtime, as a rule for all teams? I typically like Kirwan's work, but this has me pretty confused.

And for the record, I don't think it would have been great if Brady had one drive to score a touchdown. To me, moving down the field after winning the toss, and kicking a winning FG is legitimate. I also think the Broncos play-calling would have been a bit different, once Knowshon Moreno got them inside the 30, if they felt like they really needed to play for a TD.

6. Big up Lindsay Jones of the Denver Post, for reminding us, via Twitter, of somebody who hasn't come forth with their mea culpa yet. I'm looking at you, Rick Reilly, purveyor of puff pieces.

Actually, Reilly's words were more mean-spirited than anybody's, so he really owes Josh McDaniels an apology.

@DenverBroncos : Deadspin compiles all the not-so-nice things Rick Reilly wrote about McDaniels last spring. Pretty interesting. http://deadspin.com/5379838/delighting-in-rick-reillys-massively-wrong-broncos-predictions

I don't normally read Deadspin, but nice work by Tommy Creggs here. Some interesting reminders:

Reilly on April 3rd: "And none of it would've happened without McDaniels' ham-handed style and his Macy's-balloon ego. I have a buddy who honestly believes McDaniels thinks this is fantasy football; that Pat Bowlen gave him a whole team to play with and screw over in his own image and what the hell, if his moves don't work out, his league has a special "mulligan" rule and he can start over. Only there's no "oops" rule in the NFL. Years from now, the Cutler Catastrophe will go down as the dumbest thing in Boy Blunder's very short coaching career. By then, perhaps he will be your waiter at Olive Garden."

That was right after the Cutler trade. Nice, huh? Try this one out:

Reilly on April 29th: "To repeat: Boy Blunder used a [first-round pick] to take a second. And if the Broncos are going to be as lame as I think they're going to be-4-12 perhaps-that first-round pick will be very high. McDaniels is the worst combination of things: Terribly naïve and doubly confident. Bronco fans, you're screwed."

And one more pearl;

Reilly on September 29th: "You can't just bolt your team because you think it's going to suck. (Which the Broncos are. There is no debating that. They are going to lose more than France. Just because you worked under Bill Belichick and you wear your sweatshirt like Bill Belichick does not mean you are Bill Belichick.)"

I would have been glad to debate Reilly on September 29th, or any other day. And if Josh McDaniels was my waiter at Olive Garden, I'd tip him pretty well, because I tip well, and because I bet the service would be outstanding.

I mean, like they say on ESPN, C'mon Man! This drivel was worse than what came from any of the serious-ish reporters, right? Your garden-variety John Clayton, Peter King, or Don Banks were smug and disconnected from reality, but it wasn't personal. With Reilly, this was clearly PERSONAL. Where are you at, Rick? Being a Denver guy, I suspect you'll see this, or at least hear about it, from somebody who does. Ted Bartlett from MileHighReport.com wants to know where you're at with this today, and is directly, publicly asking, on behalf of the thousands who realize how wrong you were, and think we have a great Head Coach.

Hell, if I find out that Chad Henne's tattoo is actually beautifully and tastefully done, and I had it all wrong, you can bet that I'll man up to it publicly. Same goes for anything I ever say, in all seriousness. Maybe accountability to readers is a blogger thing, I don't know.

7. Retired for John Elway

8. So, there's a hellaciously stupid line of thought that's circulating throughout the punditry (as always, meant negatively.) It seems that there are two kinds of people: those who dichotomize, and those who don't. The punditry tends to dichotomize, and there are two kinds of coaches right now. Hot Coordinators (including some retreads like Mike Nolan, Gregg Williams, and Mike Mularkey), and Super Bowl Winning Retreads. And lemme tell you, nobody wants a Retread. Why not? Because they're Retreads, stupid!

My favorite contrarian Andrew Perloff tells us so in his crack column Against The Grain: ("A weekly NFL column that heads in the opposite direction of your average pro football analysis." Just in case you were wondering....)

3. The NFL information men are hot on the trail of finding out where former Super Bowl-winning coaches like Mike Shanahan, Mike Holmgren and Bill Cowher will end up. But shouldn't we be asking ourselves if those coaches are the right hires for franchises like Washington, Dallas and Carolina? A retread coach with a ring is still just a retread. Duplicating that kind of success is still a longshot in the NFL. Some of the organization problems within those teams would cause just as big a headache for a proven winner.

Perloff has a point about the organization problems, but calling somebody a retread, and assuming that they suddenly can't coach is asinine. Analysts who don't know how to analyze always look for correlation, and assume causation, where there often is none.

Some teams, like the Redskins and Cowboys, will almost certainly make big-splash hires. Some, like the Bills and Jaguars, will be cost conscious, and probably hire a coordinator. Some, like the Panthers, could go either way. You can believe that whatever is deemed to be the trend du jour, (probably hiring coordinators), the other path will be criticized. Such is life with the dichotomizing punditry.

9. Another fun Ted Bartlett prognostication from the preseason:

The Broncos are going to have the best defense in the AFC West.

I guess I am just hot this year. :)

That's all I have for this week. Have a great Tuesday, and beyond, and we'll see you Saturday for Lighting Up The Scoreboard, even as I will be at Notre Dame this weekend for their game against USC. It will be my first time seeing Touchdown Jesus, so we'll see what that does for me as a guy who grew up Catholic. Maybe I will tweet from the game. Follow me at @TedBartlett905. Thanks for reading, and go Broncos!!!

How To Beat The New England Patriots

Bruce Raffel — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 14:09:05 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

2 months ago: Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Derrick Mason celebrates his touchdown with teammate Mark Clayton in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns in Baltimore, Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009. Baltimore won 34-3. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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This week's matchup does not allow the readers to respond with what they said about last week's game against the Cleveland Browns, where many thought all the Baltimore Ravens needed to do was just show up. While that might have ended up true last week, it certainly won't be enough to beat the Patriots in their home crib this Sunday.

However, if the Ravens team that played last week shows up for this week's game and plays the same way, the Ravens can absolutely leave Gillette Stadium with an impressive victory and make a major statement about their legitimate claim as one of the best teams in the NFL so far this year.

(More on "How To Beat The New England Patriots" after the 'Jump')

Both teams are highly rated and thought to be legitimate playoff contenders this year after finishing 11-5 in the 2008 regular season, although the Pats missed out on the post season. Remember, these are the New England Patriots that went 16-0 in the regular season only two years ago. However, this is not the same Patriots squad that is playing now as a lot has transpired in their ranks that have left a dent their armor this year. QB Tom Brady is back after missing nearly all of the 2009 season with a knee injury, although he just doesn't seem to be completely healthy based on his missing targets that he normally was a lock to hit. The Pats traded DT Richard Seymour to Oakland for the Raiders first round draft pick and while that was a great trade for New England, it left a hole in their trenches. Combined with the fact that NT Vince Wilfork may miss Sunday's game puts the Ravens in position to enjoy a huge advantage in the trenches on offense. The LB corps of the Pats has been hit hard with the retirement of Tedy Bruschi and the injury to Jerod Mayo, and without them the front seven's ability to slow down the Ravens rushing attack and put pressure on the QB is greatly diminished.

These issues lead me to believe that the Ravens offense will be able to move the ball and put points on the board against the Patriots defense. But in order to win this game, the key will be whether or not the Ravens defense can limit the New England offense enough to prevent them from scoring more than we do. The Ravens defense is basically the same, if not better than the one that almost upset the Pats in that classic 2007 game during their undefeated regular season (that game is on the NFL Network tonight). The Ravens were horrible that year and still almost pulled off the upset. If we can come close to playing with that same fervor, then we will have a shot to win in New England, where the Pats have the NFL's best home record since the 2000 season, just ahead of the Indianapolis Colts and our Baltimore Ravens.

Don't expect the Patriots running game to have any more success against the Ravens as the rest of the league has had this season, much less for the past 38 games where no one player has rushed for over 100 yards against this defense. Limiting Tom Brady and the Pats passing attack will obviously be the key to this game. Keep Randy Moss out of the end zone and do not let TE Ben Watson get behind our safeties and we should be fine. Wes Welker should play but he is not the TD threat that the other two are. Welker can move the chains though, and is the speed threat across the middle and has great hands. Most likely, I see the Ravens fastest DB, Fabian Washington on Welker and Domonique Foxworth covering Moss, with help from Ed Reed in back of him. Dawan Landry should match up against Watson, unless we are in a nickel, dime or dollar packages with more DB's out there to provide additional coverage. Of course, turnovers could play a huge part in deciding this game, as both teams have been opportunistic on defense in thus category.

I like the Ravens chances and while this is by far our toughest game so far, we came through with a tough road victory earlier this season against the San Diego Chargers, which was predicted by many to be a road loss for the Ravens. At the same time, in New England's toughest game so far, they failed to beat the New York Jets on the road, against the Ravens former defensive coordinator, whose defensive gameplan should be repeated by the Ravens this Sunday. If Baltimore executes like they have so far this season, there is no reason that we can't outmuscle the Patriots and emerge from week four still undefeated and remain atop the AFC North.

How To Beat the San Diego Chargers

Bruce Raffel — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 13:57:11 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

3 months ago: Baltimore Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis (52) and Ed Reed (20) tackle Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe (82) during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009, in Baltimore. The Ravens won 38-24. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

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Last week we put the same story out on the Kansas City Chiefs and for the most part, the Baltimore Ravens listened to what I posted, but their Special Teams must have taken the day off that it was posted. However, we still "escaped" with a win, according to the never satisfied Ravens supporters, although most of you agree with me that the purple and black (actually they wore white last Sunday) dominated that game on both sides of the ball.

If the Ravens play that way this weekend in San Diego, can they repeat their success? This time, they will be the visiting team and the crown will be firmly behind their Chargers in their home opener of the 2009 NFL season. Both teams come into this game at 1-0, with similar closer victories over opponents originally thought to be much weaker than the games suggested. However, as we've said over and over, this is the NFL and on any given Sunday...

(More on 'How to Beat the San Diego Chargers' after the "Jump.")

Needless to say, if the Baltimore Ravens wrap up a "gift" or two to the Chargers like they did to the Chiefs, it will put the team in a difficult position against a team with what can be a very high powered offense. Therefore, right off the ball the Ravens must win the turnover battle in order to win the game. One of our posters on The Beatdown listed an interesting stat about how infrequently a team that ends the game -2 in the turnover battle has still won the game and it isn't very promising that we can count on doing that again and still coming out with a victory.

How many Chiefs fans, much less even Ravens fans, thought this offense was capable of that type of offensive explosion that saw the Ravens running up a franchise record of 501 yards of total offense? Now that the cat's out of the bag, how will the Chargers prepare to defend the Ravens? Will they double our wideouts and dare us to run the ball? Doubtful. Will they blitz on every passing play to force Joe to beat them? Perhaps, but still not going to happen every play. The Chargers will just have to put the Ravens in obvious down and distance positions where they are almost certain to either run or pass and hope that Cam Cameron doesn't cross them up. Expect the Ravens to put points on the board against the shaky Chargers defense, as they have been prone to the long pass play and their front seven are injured or just not fully recovered to the point of having one of the league's most feared defenses in past years.

So with the expectations of high scoring by the Ravens, how does the Ravens defense "rebound" (?) from last week? Rebound!? Holding the Chiefs to 188 yards of offense, with 50 coming on one play and another seven on a short TD drive, the Baltimore defense only gave up just over 130 yards the rest of the game to the Chiefs, including a leasely 29 on the ground. No LaDanian Tomlinson is a possibility, but that means more touches for Darren Sproles and probably some carries for Michael Bennett. LT is definitely not the guy he was a few years ago, when he was the obvious #1 pick in most fantasy football drafts for years. Sproles, while swift and elusive in presenting the possibility of scoring every time he touches the ball on offense or Special Teams, is just not the feature back that the Chargers think can last the entire season due to his diminutive size. Even the Ravens Ray Rice, similar in size to Sproles, will not carry the rock 30-40 times like many feature backs and Rice has a couple of guys named Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain to help him maintain his health and limit his wear and tear.

Sproles will get his yards through his various touches, but the Ravens need to be on him before he gets into the open field and can use his jukes and moves to outrun the defense. Not falling for the screen or draw plays, and making sure he is closely followed out of the backfield on passing plays will help this team slow him down enough for the gang tackling that might tire him out before he does the same to us. Regardless of his skills, it's been 36 games and counting since any running back has gone over 100 yards rushing against the Ravens defense and Sproles does not figure to stop that streak.

That means it comes down to QB Philip Rivers and his tsalented group of receivers, namely WR Vincent Jackson and TE Antonio Gates. The Chargers have a couple of other guys who can catch and run the ball, but those two are the focus of the Ravens pass defense gameplan. Jackson presents a tough matchup for our fast, but small DB's and whether it be Domonique Foxworth or Fabian Washington assigned to blanket him, they will need help from the safeties as well as the LB's in front of him. However, those two groups may be matched up against Gates, who is too fast for the LB's and too strong for the safeties. Therefore, expect those two guys to get the balls thrown in their directions early and often.

It will be tough to slow them down if Rivers has the time to find them and throw. Therein lies the key to the game. Whereas I have said that the Ravens will score and Sproles may get some yardage and the Chargers receivers will be hard to shut down, the key to the game is getting pressure on Rivers. The Ravens defensive package will be to stunt and confuse Rivers by limiting the time he has to sit in the pocket waiting for Gates and Jackson to find the seams in the coverage. Harassing him, chasing him out of the pocket and slamming him to the turf in the beginning of the game will set the tone for making him throw the ball just a bit earlier than he wants, before his receivers come out of their breaks and lead to incompletions, tipped balls and ultimately the interceptions that the Ravens led the NFL with last year.

Forcing Rivers into turnovers and even incompletions, will frustrate him, and we have seen him unravel through his emotions getting the best of him. If the Ravens canstart the game with a turnover to set the tone of the rest of the contest, they can outscore the Chargers while limiting their time of possessions as they turn into a run-oriented team with the lead late in the game. If we get the chance to sit on the lead and run the ball down the Chargers questionable defense's collective throats, we will control the clock and wear down San Diego and win the game.

"IF" is a pretty big word in the NFL and the Chargers, as well as their faithful, might have a little disagreement to this assessment. If so, then wait until Sunday morning when our predictions and Open Thread begin to flow!

Horse Tracks 9/15/09 - Spencer Larsen out with shoulder injury; Orton has stitches removed

Douglas A. Lee — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 11:46:43 -0000

DB - Week 2: McDaniels -- September 14 - Broncos TV

DB - The Morning After: Week 1 - Zach Eisendrath
Right after Sunday's game, the stitches were removed from Kyle Orton's finger. He hopes to play without a glove versus the Brownies.

DB - More Than A Miracle - Mike Rice
I like Rice's outlook. I think he's quite objective, frankly...

DPP - Larsen left with shoulder injury after freak fall - Mike Klis
Ben Hamilton got his hair buzzed off yesterday; did he get too much TV attention for his long hair on Sunday? Could the Kangaroo Court be back in session?

DPP - Broncos see Dawkins has plenty of gas left in tank - Lindsay Jones

DPP - Q&A: Broncos would prefer Orton be like Plummer - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Eye on ... The Browns - Lindsay Jones

DB - Keep Building - Gray Caldwell

DPP - Broncos can't afford to waste good fortune - Jeff Legwold

DP - Broncos learn lessons from winning play - Mike Chambers

DPP - Krieger: Miracle plays can mess with reality

DPP - Spotlight: Linebacker Mario Haggan - Mike Chambers

DPP - Analysis: Orton master of winning ugly - Mike Klis

DPP - Broncos replay: pass defense analysis - Jeff Legwold

CSG - Game-winnner against Bengals is one of greatest plays in Broncos history - Frank Schwab

CSG - McDaniels happy Broncos are 1-0 but film doesn't lie - Frank Schwab

DP - Mailbag: Tab "Tater" over Orton - Mike Klis

CR - Miracle ending for Josh McDaniels - Todd Porter

DB - Ask Andra Davis...

IDT - Jay Cutler is not the best player on the Denver Broncos’ football team anymore. - Hunter Ansley

IDT - Drew Litton: The Luck o’ the Broncos

IDT - Drew Litton: The Immaculate Deflection

DB - Broncos Team Up With Colorado Lottery - Chris Gentilviso

NYT - Ravens’ Foxworth Is Building Home Museum to the Civil Rights Movement - Alan Schwarz
Old friend Domonique Foxworth's basement is not your typical NFL player's shrine to himself; rather, it is adorned with memorabilia from the Civil Rights Movement.

Browns News

CPD - Cleveland Browns' Eric Mangini praises Brady Quinn for 'poise', is confident of improvement - Mary Kay Cabot

CPD - In the end, Eric Mangini says team's mistakes are his responsibility: Browns Insider

CPD - What went wrong for Browns? It's not a short list: Terry Pluto's notebook

NFL Results

NFL - San Diego Chargers 24 at Oakland Raiders 20
Philip Rivers led the Dolts on an 89-yard drive in the final minutes to win the game. But it was a costly victory, as G Louis Vasquez injured his knee and C Nick Hardwick was carted off with a leg injury. Richard Seymour notched two sacks in his Jokeland debut.

NFL - Buffalo Bills 24 at New England Patriots 25
Tom Brady threw two TDs in the final 2:10 to shock the Bills. Leodis McKelvin eschewed a touchback and fumbled, giving the Pats the ball back for their winning score. Meanwhile, Pats LB Jerod Mayo left with a knee injury and Bills LB Paul Posluszy left with an arm injury.

AFC West News

SDUT - Chargers' streak continues, barely - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Bolts look sick, Raiders sicker - Nick Canepa

SDUT - Injuries leave offensive line dangerously thin - Tod Leonard

SDUT - Tweet, tweet: Chargers fail to live up to hype - Tim Sullivan

SDUT - WRs Jackson, Naanee prove they're game - Tod Leonard

SDUT - Coleman signs, Johnson cut - Kevin Acee
The Dolts waived RB Gartrell Johnson and signed DE Andre Coleman from the practice squad. SD is presumably hoping to sneak Johnson through to their practice squad...

SFC - In loss, a sense of hope - David White

SFC - Ostler: Raiders show signs of life in loss - Scott Ostler

OT - McDonald: Raiders loss hurts ... in a good way

KCS - Opening loss adds urgency to Chiefs game against Raiders - Adam Teicher

KCS - Chiefs to add veteran wide receiver - Adam Teicher
The Chefs may sign Bobby Wade, who was recently cut by the Vikings.

NFL News

Y! - NFL players promise brains to concussion research
Tremendous news; hopefully many other players will follow suit.

NFL - Urlacher done for season after dislocating wrist vs. Packers

NFL - Seeking insurance at QB, Eagles bring back veteran Garcia

NFL - Polamalu says 'best case scenario' is return in three to six weeks

NFL - Panthers coach Fox says Delhomme will keep starting job

NFL - Coughlin: Nicks, Ware could be sidelined beyond two weeks

NFL - Saints await announcement about Smith, Grant - Jason La Canfora

NFL - Seahawks lose LB Hill for at least two games, sign veteran Lewis

NFL - Colts still uncertain about Gonzalez's injury

NFL - 49ers ponder another offer to unsigned first-round pick Crabtree

NFL - Broken fibula sidelines veteran DE Hayward for the year
Man, gotta feel bad for old friend Reggie Hayward. That's his second season-ender in 4 years.

TBO - Bucs re-sign C/G Mahan to offset loss of Faine
Tampa Bay also added former Bronco Tim Crowder.

NFL - Jets waive CB Cole to make room for suspended DE Ellis to return

NFL - Goodell to rule soon on Jets' failure to disclose Favre injury last season

NFL Opinion

NFP - Tavern talk: Let’s buy a round - Mike Lombardi
A toast to the Slot Machine.

NFP - NFL has few options in Williams case - Andrew Brandt

Y! - Cards start campaign going in wrong direction - Mike Silver
Although Silver doesn't seem much the fan of McD, he's happy for Stokley.