SB Nation - Chris Kuper

Horse Tracks 12/20/09 - Bruton expected to start in place of injured S Hill

Douglas A. Lee — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 16:20:46 -0000

DB - Matchup: Broncos vs. Raiders - Broncos TV

DB - A Closer Look: Oakland Raiders - Gray Caldwell

DP - Broncos elevate Carter; waive Taylor - Jeff Legwold
"With the league’s practice squad rules Carter could be released Monday and re-signed to the Broncos practice squad once he clears waivers if they wish to bring Taylor back for additional offensive line depth."

LTC - Youngsters ready to contribute - Brian Howell

DPP - Playoffs? Thank Stokley - Woody Paige
"Should the Broncos beat the Raiders today and the Chiefs in the finale, and fall at Philadelphia in between, and should the Ravens and the Dolphins win their last three games, which is quite possible, the Broncos might be eliminated as an AFC wild card by dissimilar tiebreakers."

DPP - December the sore spot of NFL season - Jim Armstrong
"Rest assured, there are some current Broncos playing through injuries that will land them on a surgeon's table after the season."

DPP - Profile: Track background comes in handy for Broncos rookie Bruton - Lindsay Jones

DP - Fan-tastic send-off for Broncos' "Barrel Man" - Annette Espinoza
"No matter what the temperature, what the score, he was always positive," said former Broncos wide receiver Rod Smith. "He had heart and soul, and I'll never forget him."

PFW - Underutilized Scheffler may be stuck in Denver - AFC Whispers
"Sources familiar with Scheffler say they get the sense he would like to play in a different system, but he'll be a restricted free agent this offseason barring a new Collective Bargaining Agreement and may be stuck in Denver."

PFW - Orton’s success unlikely to alter Broncos’ approach - Dan Parr
"If no new CBA is in place before free agency begins, Orton will be a restricted free agent, and Denver will likely retain the 27-year-old by issuing him a one-year tender for a little more than $1 million. Sources don't expect other teams to risk losing draft picks by signing him to an offer sheet."

DB - There For The Taking - Mike Rice

DB - Carter Gets the Call - Kyle Sonneman

DPP - TE requires more respect - Mike Klis
"Five key Denver players — QB Kyle Orton, OLB Elvis Dumervil, WR Brandon Marshall, G Chris Kuper and TE Tony Scheffler — will have expired contracts at season's end. Barring a new NFL collective bargaining agreement, however, all will be controlled by the Broncos through restrictive free agency and could be subject to no more than one-year contracts worth $1 million to $3 million."

DPP - Unfamiliar faces get fresh look - Jeff Legwold
"Bruton is expected to start at safety in place of Renaldo Hill, who missed practice this past week because of an ankle injury."

DP - Is Bailey expendable? - Mark Kiszla

CSG - Broncos need more than Marshall in offense - Frank Schwab

CSG - Broncos: Three things to watch vs. Oakland - Frank Schwab

CSG - Broncos top 10: Greatest wins - Frank Schwab

GJS - Broncos in control of their own destiny in playoff picture - Rick Jussel

CBS4 - Broncos Fans Pay Tribute To Barrel Man - Andrea Lopez

AP - Broncos Fired Up For Charlie Frye, Raiders - Arnie Stapleton

FOX - Fearless Prediction: Raiders-Broncos
PREDICTION: Broncos 21-9

AFC West News

SFC - 3-back attack hasn't helped - David White

OT - Beating Broncos would serve Cable well - Jerry McDonald

SDUT - Norv Turner’s team peaking late again - Tim Sullivan

SDUT - Chargers learn to beat the elite - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Five things to watch: Chargers vs. Bengals - Jay Posner

KCS - Chiefs’ Charles has always believed in himself - Kent Babb

KCS - Chiefs are not just about Pioli, Haley - Jason Whitlock

KCS - Down economy and team losses toss Chiefs into tailspin - Bill Reiter

KCS - Chiefs bring back Bowe, put Savage on injured reserve - Kent Babb

NFL Results

NFL - Dallas Cowboys 24 at New Orleans Saints 17

NFL - Ripple effect of Cowboys' win could have far-reaching impact - Steve Wyche

NFP - Post Game Notes: Cowboys-Saints - Matt Bowen

NYT - Cowboys Expose Weaknesses in Saints’ Offense - Judy Battista

SI - Cowboys could be a real playoff force with efforts like this - Peter King

CBS - Prideful Cowboys quiet naysayers with big December win - Pete Prisco

NFL News

NYT - N.F.L. Suspends Its Study of Concussions - Alan Schwarz

NFL - East Coast snowstorm causes teams to adjust; game times changed

NFL - Holmgren declines offer to rejoin Seahawks in senior position

NFL - Ochocinco doesn’t want to be distraction over jersey

NFL - Redskins start their search for a new head coach; Gray interviews

NFL Opinion

NFP - Sunday at the Post - Mike Lombardi
"But as a high-ranking NFL official told me, it’s still Mike Shanahan in Washington, with his son Kyle and former defensive coordinator Bob Slowik in a yet-to-be-determined role. The only team that can derail this Shanahan train to D.C. is the Dallas Cowboys."

WP - ESPN reporting everything on Shanahan - Dan Steinberg

NYT - Are Too Many Domes Creating a Quality Mirage in the N.F.C.? - George Bretherton

SN - With season on line, Steelers face mirror image in Packers - Vinnie Iyer

SN - Remote Access: A Viewer's Guide to Week 15 - Vinnie Iyer

DPP - Stability at heart of Pats, Eagles success - Jeff Legwold

NYT - N.F.L.’s Disconnect Between Regular Season and Super Bowl - Stuart Miller

NYT - Jets’ Bart Scott Is the Last Word in Trash Talking - Greg Bishop

Broncos Thoughts and Musings - Kansas City Week

Emmett Smith — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

25 days ago: Denver Broncos defensive end Elvis Dumervil (92) reacts after sacking New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Denver, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009. Denver won 26-6. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

Following the burden of four losses, and continuing through the lighter job of a Thanksgiving turkey-down being visited on the NY Giants, I've been busy in the film room. The Broncos had gone through a hard stretch of the season and I wanted to know why: What changed? What made them goats after weeks of success? The game film was the only place to find out.

Of course, film room is a slight exaggeration. It's also the TV room, the reading room, the computer room and the filing room. In my case, it holds a large table that holds a lot of equipment, including my phones, router, speakers, tower (yes, I was raised PC) and a 26-inch monitor that lets me work in comfort. I worked in a padded brown leather office chair and a small table for the keyboard. I'd go wireless, but the keyboard is a special ergonomic model that I got used to and can't stop using. Maybe Microsoft will awaken and make a wireless version of this one, but so far, no joy. You can step outside the french doors that lead from the room onto my deck and watch the molten brass of the autumn sun sliding down into the ocean almost every night and that's a big plus. I miss the mountains, but that view doesn't seem to get old.

It's the only room that I have privacy in, other than a bedroom, but when I'm watching this much film, it's definitely a film room, so I'll use that term. The TV will have a DVD or a Tivo going that's relevant and the computer can be running two more games at once if I need to make some comparisons. I indulged in a quad core, 64-bit with a suitably large HD and an even larger external backup drive that saves everything, everyday. If I'm not on the computer, I also put in a leather recliner for the TV. Life is not hard...anyway you slice it, I've had a lot of time to watch the Broncos recently. The first few days of that were sheer torture, but it suddenly got much easier on Thursday last. It's funny how you enjoy breaking down film more when your team is winning.

I spent a lot of time watching each of the losses and trying to comprehend exactly why, in terms of their on-field play, they were losing. It was a helpful exercise. The losses showed exactly why we were struggling and the victory last week showed equally well what happens when you rectify those same errors. Losing is usually about errors -- sometimes you just are beaten by a better team, but most of the time you open the door and usher them into the victory circle. Jimmy Johnson is a complicated man but he nailed it when he pointed out that you only have to beat about 10 teams in the NFL. The others will create the victory for you if you just stay around. That's exactly what Denver was doing.

The entire breakdown is fiendishly long and I won't bore you with all of it. I'll pull bits and pieces off of it as the next few weeks move along. I can say this -- everyone agrees that there are certain basic principles that are essential to winning. Discipline is essential. Gap control is essential. Success in the trenches is essential. Mental errors are the bane of the football existence. If you just apply those to the losses, you'll find that nearly every failure was created not by the opponent, but by the Broncos.

For those who have asked me, yes, I was badly disappointed in the work of the referees during some of the games. They missed calls, called phantom infractions and generally weren't as good as they have to be, but the real culprit was gazing implacably out of the mirrors in the locker room when the Broncos came back in from the games. Here are a few observations to get us started, in no particular order.

Tight Spots

It didn't take a lot of film work to notice exactly why the Broncos drafted Richard Quinn earlier this year. Josh McDaniels requires a talented blocking tight end and long-time TE Daniel Graham showed up on film as having difficulty at holding the edge on passing downs. While Quinn is still struggling to master the speed of the NFL and the intricacies of the complex Broncos offense, he was the highest-rated blocking TE at this year's Combine. He'll have to step up greatly to fulfill the Broncos' faith in him, taking him as the last pick in the 2nd round of the 2009 Draft, but it's still fair to say that Graham was struggling during the losses. He'd look like an All-Pro on one, then disappear on the next.

About Quinn - the Broncos drafted off of a 'short board' this year, listing only those players that they felt would fit their system effectively. That has led to complaints by the Mile High community regarding where, exactly, they made their choices, but it explains a lot. Drafting a player that they didn't see in their system makes far less sense than using a 2nd-round pick on a player who was rated in the late-2nd to the 4th round. Why Quinn? Because during the losses, Daniel Graham made me wonder if he was getting older. Of course, after last Thursday, I'm not as concerned with that problem. He just hadn't played his best for a few games.

When Graham is on, he's one of the best. Blocking, chipping, running routes and catching, Graham is a tremendous advantage for Denver. When he fails, though, especially since Tyler Polumbus was struggling, it can make for a long game for both the run and the pass.

Graham has an issue with his hand placement. I've mentioned this previously on a thread, but he has a tendency to grab at the outermost aspect of the shoulders of the jersey. Technically, it IS holding, the way he uses it. Keep in mind, by the way, that his placement is legal as long as he works inside from it. Unfortunately, Graham has been finishing plays with a hip-twist to the side that takes down his player with a judo-like throw. He seems to do this a great deal - some refs call it, some don't, but he has to learn a better hand placement or we will have that issue regularly. It's a lot of fun to watch, but is still illegal. We need his play, though - he's still one of the best, all-around, and that's a huge plus.

Lots of fans including myself have awaited two things - a more balanced attack and better usage of Tony Scheffler. A big reason the latter didn't happen was that the blocking wasn't good enough for him to be used as a receiver more often. As the blocking improved, magically, Scheffler got free and started to create matchup troubles for NY.

It all starts with blocking. The trenches are where the games are won.

Being Offensive

Speaking of blocking, watching film over the past week has opened my eyes to the exact nature of the Broncos' decline on offense. I'd like to state, for the record, that I more or less expected to see problems that could be traced to many players and situations, but particularly to issues with the blocking and to the offensive line. I was still stunned to see how far those problems on the O-Line extended, though. Here are a couple of examples from the 1st quarter of the Pittsburgh game that might serve to clarify the issue. They were good illustrations of what we are dealing with.

The right side of the offensive line, except for the continuing excellence of Chris Kuper, has been a huge problem during the losses. Ryan Harris has been injured and Tyler Polumbus hasn't been able to step up fully in his absence until the Giants game. Daniel Graham seemed to be struggling to finish his blocks. In addition, I grew convinced that Russ Hochstein isn't the answer at guard before he played well on Thanksgiving and confounded me. The following two plays were a good indication of the problems as they stood. The plays ran back-to-back.

In the first one, Denver is lined up on offense with 5 down lineman and 4 receivers; Brandon Marshall is in the right slot. His safety, the man covering Marshall, releases to penetrate, going after Orton. Orton sees him and chooses his receiver quickly, accurately gunning it to Brandon. Marshall goes over the middle and makes the reception. However -- the safety ran square into Polumbus who missed the speed rush, letting the safety move easily past before he hurried Orton. The pass is still complete, but Polumbus got taken.

An illustration of just how bad the blocking had become came next, on a power running play Denver used toward to the end of the 1st quarter. The Broncos lined up the usual 5 OL, with Hochstein outside of Polumbus on the right side of the line and Graham on the outside of him to the right. Hochstein was essentially playing as an extra blocking lineman, as was Graham. This wasn't the kind of play that is designed to fool anyone: it was a simple, power run formation. It looked good, right up until the ball was snapped.

At the snap, Hochstein fired out of his stance and toward an OLB on the right as Orton took the snap and handed the ball to Knowshon Moreno. Unfortunately for Russ, his man simply stepped back and to the side. Hochstein went after him, and the end of the play saw him still literally chasing around behind the player who was not, happily, much in the play. Polumbus was keyed on James Farrior, ILB, who brushed him aside as you might a small child, knifing into the backfield. Polumbus fell flat on his face, Farrior reached Moreno in the backfield, almost untouched, and the play went for a loss of three.

There are a couple of obvious things to mention. I've rarely, if ever, seen a power run to the right that left two of our right-side lineman grasping at air, having failed to engage anyone at all that they were supposed to block. Polumbus knelt there on the ground and pounded it with his fist, but that's no substitute for doing your job. This wasn't the only play that left me leery of Hochstein, by the way - it seemed unfortunately obvious why he's been a backup for most of his career. In my own view, I'm sad to say that Tyler hadn't played well enough to even keep him as a backup in the offseason unless he improved rapidly. Of course, this changed greatly against the Giants and he had a very good game. That's been a pattern -- good O-Line play will win you games. Lacking it is an invitation to a loss. What's new?

A third example involved Ben Hamilton. Ben looked like a different player on the recent film. It's almost as if someone stole him in the night and left a changeling in his place, one who fooled everyone into believing that he's Ben. How bad was it? In the same quarter listed above, earlier on, the Broncos ran off-guard to the right. Hamilton was tasked with taking up a linebacker on the play. He easily got to the second level, made contact - and quit. He just stopped and let the player disengage. His man promptly ran over, following the run, and tackled Correll Buckhalter. Hamilton was immediately pulled for one play, with Hochstein taking his place. Unfortunately, Russ wasn't an improvement and Hamilton returned for the next play after, having received some loving personal instruction and attention from Rick Dennison. I've never known Hamilton to quit on plays before this season - something is obviously going on with him.

Think about it. Orton is hit on the first play. He made the completion anyway (Orton looked very good in that half) but it was touch and go whether he could get the pass off accurately within that narrow window. On the next play, Moreno never had a chance - Farrior had a perfect shot at him. On the third play, Buckhalter would have had a first down if Hamilton just finishes the play. Instead, the Steelers killed that drive. That was a pattern during the losses. Individuals didn't play well and the team couldn't get anything going.

I'm not claiming for a moment that we don't have other issues, and I'm going to talk about others over the next few weeks. The defense was also a problem, communication between Orton and the receivers left some points on the field, and there were plenty of other things to work on. It's just that the degree of problems with the offensive line were killing drive after drive, even when you had to look carefully to see why that's true. I had to run the plays over and over to spot every player, but once I did, the crux of the matter was too obvious to miss.

I also saw that plenty of people - far too many - made mental errors at critical times. To be honest, it's the NFL - any time is a critical time. A single mistake wipes out a 40-yard gain - is that critical? It is to me. The difference in the Giants game? For what it's worth, I think that it's not that they didn't make those errors - they still did. It was that once they had, they got it back on track and didn't keep on making them, while the Giants did. If they can keep that kind of aggressive spirit and increase their effective discipline, the Broncos can still compete in the playoffs.

Not-so Special Teams

In watching film, a pattern emerged that had hovered just at the edge of my consciousness. I've been listening to and reading about how the special teams play has been a problem and I fully agree. If you look at the overall results it's hard not to be concerned about this area of the Broncos. Many of the members had problems with bringing ST coach Mike Priefer on board, and I tend to agree. But the problem here, even so, can easily be deceiving. A pattern came to light that has no simple solution.

It's this: Our opponent gets the ball. We stop their drive, but they make it to about mid-field. They punt, and their punter is good at finding that 'coffin corner', pinning us back in our end of the field. Sure, you hope that Eddie Royal can break a few, but let's be real - Eddie is getting the ball with two players or more in his face. He's in a tight area, with defenders reaching him under the punt. We get pinned in the 10-20 if he catches the ball, maybe the 23 or so. It's on the 20 if it rolls into the end zone. We're looking at another long, tiring drive - if we're successful. If not, we're punting and the opposing team gets it at about the 30-to-40 yard line. then we do it all over again until the D is tired and/or we get scored on. I used to notice this with Shanahan's last few teams as well. It's a terrible habit to get into, since it assures that you will have the maximum problems scoring and will give the easiest time to the opponent.

And then came the Giants game and it all changed back, as mysteriously as it arrived. The Broncos suddenly woke up from an autumn nap, smelled the air and strapped on their helmets. They stopped them at their end of the field, created a little more room to run back punts and boomed punts that stuck the Giants back in their end of the field. Everything was different. In the end, the starting field position was Den: 30.20, NYG: 21.30 according to StatMaster TJ (Thanks for the aid, Your Dudeness). Seeing that showed why the difference was so stark.

If we look more at the starting field position, we really did get clobbered by BAL and PIT. After that, it was more about errors. Consider our starting field position over the past 5 weeks:

Week 8, Baltimore: 20.55

Week 9, Pittsburgh: 21.64

Week 10, Washington: 27.91

Week 11, San Diego: 29.60

Week 12, New York: 30.20

The Washington game, to me, was a matter of mistakes and the issue of Chris Simms - if we had Orton, I still think that we would have won, even with a poor performance by the D. Our field position was not that bad and we did score well. the lack of defensive discipline may have tipped the game in their favor. SD was a meltdown. Error compounding error, awful work by Simms, who will not return, Orton trying to play lame. We had decent position and lost it anyway.

Yet, with about the same position, we pounded on NYG. The difference was that we put together a comprehensive, complementary football game, with all sections doing "A" work. That's hard to beat. It sounds awfully simplistic, but this time, the solution was simple. Stop making egregious errors that kill drives or sustain the opponents' drives. If a mistake happens, overcome it with better play. Many times, how we responded to errors determined whether or not we won any given battle.

Throwdown, Elvis Style

Daniel Graham wasn't the only Broncos who's been engaged in throwdowns recently: What to make of Elvis Dumervil? With 5 games to go in the season, he's accumulated a career high and NFL-leading 14 sacks. Will the Broncos pay to keep him around? Count on it. I don't know any more than you about how they will deal with the uncapped year and the new CBA beyond that, but Doom will be a Bronco in 2010. Dumervil is already sixth all-time in the NFL in third-down sacks in a season. The record is held by San Francisco's Tim Harris, who had 11 third-down sacks in 1992 and Doom has 5 more games to pad that stat. When he finds the QB on third down, it does more than just give us back the ball. It changes the way the game flows. How will they pay him? Again - that's what Brian Xanders does. I've got a lot of faith in him. Gosh, why do you want a GM with a lot of cap experience? I couldn't believe it when I heard that in the offseason. The cap is a defender who will always be waiting to trip you up, year 'round.

When Doom is getting his sacks on any down the Broncos are almost impossible to beat. That's because when he's bringing the QB down, It also means that everyone else has tied up their guys or is bringing their own pressure. Good as he is, only when the team plays well does he do as well. His numbers are a tribute to Mike Nolan's job and the play of the front 7 in general. It was one of the huge differences in the losses and the wins. The play of the front 7 will always be essential to success.

Very few teams get a weapon like him, someone who can shut down the passing game in the 4th quarter and protect your win. Doom gets his sacks more often than not when the Broncos play aggressive defense, stay in their gaps and collapse the play. Usually, Doom places a move on a lineman while his cohorts are filling the lanes and gaps, giving the QB no place to run. Even though the number of sacks is a tribute to his talent and performance, he's getting there because the players next to him are doing a great job.

It comes up a lot when I talk to other football geeks: Disciplined gap defense wins games. I can't explain why the Broncos started trying to run around their blockers instead of taking them on and defeating them, but that was exactly what happened as they lost and it didn't change until Thursday. By moving back to gap control and discipline, they took on and overpowered blockers and showed the kind of performance that they can be proud of. Brandon Jacobs is a big load at running back but he was held to 27 yards on 11 carries. There were no gaps for him to exploit, leading to gang tackles and short yardage. That's the kind of defense that wins game.

If the Broncos maintain that gap discipline against the weaker KC line and Jamaal Charles they can shut down the run game and force Matt Cassel to beat them. If the secondary plays the kind of vicious, lockdown coverage that they showed last Thursday KC won't be able to keep up.

What else does gap discipline result in? Stopping the run on first and second down leaves a lot of third-and-long plays which plays into the Broncos' aggressive style and leads to chances for Doom and Co.

Rookies

There is a lot of talk about the Broncos' rookies in the game. Some fans are leaping to conclude that X player is or isn't a bust based on the 1st half of the season. That's something of a bizarre idea. Despite fan 'rules' about how anyone taken in the the top 10 or 15, or the 1st round, should be ready to come in and contribute immediately, that's a rare thing in the NFL. What you really hope for is that they find some ways to contribute the first season and that they play well over the course of the rest of their career. Anything else is 'gravy' so to speak.

Josh McDaniels isn't opposed to playing rookies who can contribute immediately, such as Moreno and Alphonso Smith. Even Knowshon has struggled as he has to learn a completely different style of running, reading and executing. From the early results, I suspect that he'll be fine but it's also fair to say that playing running back is less stressful mentally than playing cornerback, as an example. Then you get to the defensive line, where you really hope for a breakout in the player's 3rd or 4th year. Demanding too much from the rookies is a path to problems. Why? Rookies = mistakes.

It's not just in the NFL, either. Regardless of the sport, very few rookies contribute much. There's just too much to learn. Even those who play brilliantly in their first season, rare as they are, often suffer a diminishment in the second season, just as Eddie Royal and Ryan Clady have done. Why? It's a tough, fast, difficult game. Once other teams know what you do and what you struggle with, you're going to see a lot of hard situations that will challenge you in new ways.

This means exactly nothing over the course of the player's career; most players improve during their first few seasons. Much is made of the stat that the average player has about a 4-year career, but that stat takes into account the number of payers who don't stay after a single year. They are the undrafted or the badly drafted, those who just can't make the leap from college to the pros. I've never seen a breakdown of how the average is determined, and I'd like to. Because in general, those who do fairly well during their first year tend to be out there for a long time.

That's what we're going to see from some of our rookies. Knowshon Moreno, Alphonso Smith, Darcel McBath, Robert Ayers and David Bruton have all done some good things during their rookie season. I'm not going to get bent out of shape if they can't suddenly be brilliant - that's a rare thing in the NFL. But I do want to see flashes of why we wanted those men, and I have. The rookies are doing well. Give them time.

I have to note that we saw some fine performances from a lot of our 2009 rookies against New York. The draft class stepped up front and center last Thursday night and the list of contributors is long. Alphonso Smith had a big game - he made a couple of mistakes, but his overall performance was excellent and lends support to his draft status. David Bruton and Knowshon Moreno we've discussed; Bruton was brilliant and Knowshon gets better every game. I went back and saw more of Quinn on ST than I expected to. Robert Ayers also returned to the active roster after a week in which the Broncos believed that Jarvis Moss could contribute more for them; they were playing the odds because SD had troubles with speed rushers, and that fit Moss better than Ayers. Ayers had another good game against NY, though. McBath played well. The team has some great young players and they will contribute for seasons to come.

Knowing Knowshon Moreno

Speaking of great young players, I loved Knowshon Moreno's comments after the Giants game:

"Every week it's gonna be tough. The offensive line opened up those big holes for us and we just ran through them. We all looked out for each other."

Typical Knowshon. No arrogance, no personal preening, just a willingness to share the credit and to accept the blame. Given that he's also reputed to be a delight to coach and a pleasure to have around in the locker room, I'm thrilled that he's going to be a Bronco for a long time. Watching his TD run over and over, each time I'm sure that he'll be stopped short and each time he keeps the legs churning in classic form. He's up for Rookie of the Week again, too. Talented, gutsy player. Great draft choice.

Knowshon has been growing into this role on the team steadily and not that slowly, either. The only thing that has stood between him and a few 100-yard games is the fact that he's being rotated with Buckhalter, a runner whose contribution to the team is just as essential. 'Buck' is teaching Moreno during the week and making him more effective on weekends. Both runners block well and receive well and Buck even had a 41-yard kickoff return in the third quarter. That's exactly what a good team requires. I'd love to see a third back in the rotation, but that hasn't been important so far (knock on wood).

Knowshon's comments also bring out the same thing I mentioned above: The Broncos go as the lines go. When the O-Line is making three errors in the red zone, back-to-back-to-back, we are in serious trouble. When they get it together and blast open those holes, they're tough to stop.

By the way, check this from the denverbroncos.com:

During the last three weeks, rookie RB Knowshon Moreno has totaled the sixth-most rushing yards (265 / 88.3 ypg.) and the third-best yards per rush average (5.6) in the NFL. He leads all league rookies in rushing yards (688) and yards from scrimmage (784) this year.

To that end, I loved seeing Polumbus and Hochstein step up against NY. That's exactly what we need to see from them. Daniel Graham made a few bad errors, but he also blasted linemen and linebackers alike and he deserves a round of applause as well. The Giant's were holding him and trying to apply what looked like takedowns against him by the end of the game - he confounded them in high style. The running game will always be dependent on what happens in the trenches, including the TEs. Always has been, always will. Last week, they were the team that's very hard to beat. They need to take that anger that they seemed to tap into to KC. Decembers there are tough.

By the way, a big thank-you to Spencer Larsen and Tony Scheffler as well for their work against NYG. They each played a role in making this a complete-team win and blocked like demons in the running game. I can't think of a single area where the Broncos didn't dominate. The final stats seemed more respectable due to the vagaries of garbage time, but the fact was that NY was shut down and hammered flat.

Another player that deserves recognition is Wesley Woodyard. Woodyard has struggled recently, as did most of the defense, but he brought back his "A" game for the Giants. He was in the right place at the right time over and again, and even though he's very light as LBs go, he's doing a heck of a job on the nickel defense, hitting and making tackles. Nice going, WW. I hope that his neck injury is short-lived.

Orton and Learning

There's no way to deny it: I've been a Kyle Orton fan ever since I watched a lot of film on the man during the offseason. The more I saw of it, the more I liked him. Now that he's thrown with a brace on a right index finger that was mangled and played hobbled without excuse, he's impressed me. This is the second season in a row that he's played on a bad ankle and never complained; I'm starting to really like the man. He never, ever, blames anyone. He puts it on his own shoulders. If they're successful he talks about wishing that he had a couple back and about how well the team played. If they lose, he states baldly that everyone needs to step up more. There's no finger pointing, no nonsense. No fuss, no tantrums, no excuses. Expect to see a lot of Kyle over the next few years. I'm great with watching Tom Brandstater, by the way. If he can outplay Kyle, more power to him. I expect Brandstater to be 2nd string next season. But Orton? You have to go a long way to find a tougher QB. I love that in any player.

It's also worth noticing that we're starting to see more of the longer passes. Whether that's the playbook opening, players getting to know each other better, or taking what the defense gives us can be debated, but Brandon Marshall on a go route will scare a lot of defensive coordinators. He's not blazing fast but his ability to get to the ball is rare when he's playing like he did on Thursday. Orton said this, yesterday:

"He's the first guy that I've had like this. It's been a change for me in my way of thinking, being able to trust him and give him those chances. He's a phenomenal player, and I don't see too many people when the ball is in the air going out and out-jumping him or being more physical than he is going for the ball. You certainly want to put it in a good spot to give him the best chance go up and make a play."

What that tells me is that the early comments that Orton and the other players needed to get used to each other and the offense were right on, and kudos to the guys that caught it. I'm starting to see the defenses collapsing on the short and mid routes and Marshall taking the go route to counter and I love it. Those fans who called for more longer passes are getting their wishes fulfilled. The NY game showed us that this is still the team that started 6-0. They can win a wild card slot if they continue to play like that as the season winds down.

You can talk 'til Hades is endothermic, but Orton will be our starting QB next year. He will agree to a nice contract that will keep us cap-friendly and will give him a lot of financial security. That's exactly why we brought him in and why we brought Brian Xanders on board.

Orton has also improved every year that he's been in the pros. I'd say that you can look for that to continue, and that he's going to bring the rest of the offense with him. .

For Kicks

Here's a toast to Mitch Berger, the much-maligned punter who took over for the struggling Brett Kern a few weeks past. He managed 3 punts for 145 yards, an average of 48.3 yards per punt. I can't tell you why he seems to be improving, but that kind of performance can't be overstated. The punting game in the previous losses tended to the pattern I talked about earlier. By kicking longer and permitting good hang time, he let the coverage move down the field and do their jobs. They did - and a special thanks to MHR favorite David Bruton, who was tearing up ST on Thursday night. When we talk about young drafted players who are stepping up, I don't hear his name quite often enough. Give him a few years and he's going to be a heck of a safety, too, bringing that same intensity and talent for the big hit. I know that we talk about this safety and that one, and that's understandable. I'd love to have Eric Berry playing for the Broncos. But it's more likely that we won't, and we won't have a big dropoff if Bruton continues to develop the way that he has.

Berger wasn't the only one who knocked the laces off the rock, by the way. Matt Prater had a stellar night, bisecting the uprights on kick after kick and driving his kickoffs far back into the end zone. If they can't run it out, they won't have much of a runback. Domenik Hixon managed just two returns for 20 yards each for NY, while Prater was faultless on 4 field goals, with a long of 47 yards. Contrary to many concerns, he's shown no signs of fading as the season wears on. He won the AFC ST Player of the Week award, and he earned it.

"I think that's the best game I've ever had," said Prater. "It was perfect weather for kicking." Perfect weather for a dominating win, too.

Kansas City Here I Come

Want an unusual stat? Kyle Orton is still one of the best QBs in terms of home record in the past 3 decades. That's a heck of a stat, really, but it's not even the one I'm interested in. What interests me is that he plays even better on the road, whether his team might or not. Orton's home QB rating? 80.3, less than his overall average of 84.1. On the road, Orton is managing an 89.6 QB rating. That's one of the things that gives me a lot of confidence gong into the KC game this week: Orton has actually been better on the road.

KC can be a meat grinder at home - that's worse in December and I'll never discount that. The Steelers took them too lightly and were handed their hats with a defeat that could end up influencing their post-season standing. The Chiefs gave a heck of a tussle to Baltimore and beat the Redskins (who are coming on themselves, you might notice) and the Raiders. They are still a weaker team, but they have some pieces that are starting to fall together and their 3-4 is starting to play well. Jamaal Charles is a great addition to their team and Larry Johnson a great subtraction.

The Broncos will be well rested going into the game and they will have some extra time to gameplan. My sole concern is whether this squad is ready to keep on being angry and aggressive. If that happens, I believe that we'll have an eighth victory to celebrate, moving into the game against Indianapolis, but I expect this one to be hard-fought.

One thing I like about KC: Matt Cassel. I like the fact that he's working hard, making improvements, and that he's able to score some points if you give him some time. KC still doesn't have that great an offensive line and frankly, I'm shocked that the Steelers gave them so much time to throw -- it's not a mistake that Denver can afford to emulate. I'm glad that PIT did, though. It gives us a clear picture of what happens when you don't bring the intensity that the NFL requires to a game. My question is whether the Broncos can bring the kind of pressure that has won us some games. If so, we'll probably take this one.

There's a certain glow to a long week off after an excellent home win. Now, let's take it on the road...

Go Broncos!

Broncos Thoughts and Musings - Redskins Week

Emmett Smith — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:21:10 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

about 1 month ago: Denver Broncos' Andra Davis (54), D.J. Williams (55) and teammates look on from the bench in the final minute against the Pittsburgh Steelers in an NFL football game Monday, Nov. 9, 2009, in Denver. The Steelers won 28-10. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

Browse more photos »

Another week in the NFL, and the Broncos didn't win this time, either. The earth remains in orbit, and the stock market didn't crash (again). Once again, some of the fan base is breaking its ankles in their haste to jump back off the bandwagon. Many of them will climb over people's heads to jump back on next week, too. It's the way this season is going.

One nice thing about getting older is getting a longer perspective on things. Patience, like age, can be a useful thing. You tend to lose the idea that the immediate is as daunting as emotions want to paint. You can, if you're lucky, learn that experiencing more wins than losses is actually enjoyable. You lose some of the urge to demand constant perfection of the world. You realize that your will never manifest that yourself, and you recognize that trying to require it of those around you makes you - and them - miserable. It's a rigged game.

The Broncos look good to me. I'm aware that they have weaknesses, but they also just played two excellent teams, one on the road. They didn't win, and they're probably not in that league yet. But they won against San Diego on the road, as well as beating three division leaders in Dallas, New England and Cincinnati. If you rate their overall performance, they're exceeding nearly everyone's estimations. Don't waste too much time worrying and insisting that things are in peril. We've won 3 of every 4 games. Enjoy it.

Let's talk Broncos!

Hamilton and Concussions

I'd like to talk for a few moments about Ben Hamilton's situation. When he spent some time out with a major concussion, I immediately became concerned. I used to see mild to moderate brain trauma cases in my clinical days and even designed a new treatment format that seemed to be very effective, so I knew how troubling that injury can be. What's just as troubling is that the medical field has been incredibly slow to admit that each concussion is a serious life event.

Some players are never the same afterward, just as many non-players will have problems with concentration, thought and emotions throughout the rest of their lives. Brain injuries are serious stuff.

In poking around, I was temporarily soothed by learning that offensive lineman relatively rarely suffer concussions. What I didn't realize at the time was that this information was put out by the tools of the NFL, which has a huge investment in keeping people believing something that we have long known is nonsense - that NFL players don't have a provably higher rate of concussive dementia than the population at large. I don't know a doc personally who believes that crap, but it's still out there.

What they didn't tell us was that offensive lineman do have a lower rate of concussions. However - they have a significantly higher rate of non-concussive head blows. If you've had a major concussion in the past, that can leave you with issues of concentration, slower reflexes and a whole slew of other issues. Since Hamilton didn't have a major history of inducing penalties and has since returning, it's impossible to rule out the concern that he may be suffering from a chronic level of post-concussive syndrome. Is that my clinical diagnosis? Of course not - I've never met the man, much less done an intake workup on him. But it concerns me as one potential explanation of the situation, and I'm pretty sure from my own history that many of his docs aren't taking this as seriously as they should. Sometimes, we can be incredibly slow to admit that things your great-grandmother knew were true - like head injuries can last for a lifetime, whether our current testing shows it clearly or not - are really true.

I wish the man well. It's time to accept that he will probably not be with the Broncos next year and to move forward in whatever way is best. The middle of the O-line will be a major priority in the draft and/or free agency this upcoming year. Count on it.

Football 101: Timing Patterns

I read a lot of comments after the Steelers game that showed me one thing - we can all learn more about the game. Several of them dealt with plays in which the receivers weren't there to absorb the pass on a timing route, and a couple dealt with Knowshon Moreno. I thought it might help to clear the air.

When a timing route is called, the QB and receiver are essentially entering into a pact. The QB agrees to throw the ball to a space that the receiver hasn't reached. The receiver agrees to get there on time to make the catch. The O-line agrees (and this might also involve a running back and a tight end or two) to protect the QB until the throw can be made accurately. All of them have to do their jobs well for the pattern to be successful.

On the first INT by Orton, Moreno was picked by the NT. As a result, he didn't get there and the pass was to open space. One of the defenders moved in and made the pick, but you really can't blame Orton. All he can do is make the throw. The running back (in this case) has to fight through and get to the ball. That didn't happen.

Oddly, the same thing happened on another play, but the outcome was pretty much the same. He wasn't where he had to be and the pass was incomplete. The fans who bemoan that the pass was 'out of his reach' don't really understand the nature of a timing route. You cannot, from our viewpoint, know if that's an accurate statement or not. Might be - it happens. But all we really can know is that the receiver didn't get to where the ball went on time. Nothing more.

Every Kiss begins with Who?

First off: The winter/Xmas commercials are back, and just as tiresome as last year's. Of a particularly high irritation factor is that one about the connection between kisses and jewelry. Not in my life, brother.

In much younger days, many kisses began with Miller Lites, Bud Heavies, bottles of good wine and the occasional glass of well-aged mead. One remarkably memorable occasion began with Cuervo Gold, but that was a long time ago. If I had to pony up jewelry just to get kissed, I knew that I was dating the wrong lady.

The two greatest inventions of the last 100 years were the fast forward and the mute button. Trust me on this one. Danged commercials...

Jack Williams

When people are talking about Jack Williams' release, this may put things more clearly: Williams was beaten out last year by Josh Bell. That's the same Josh Bell who auditioned for the Cleveland Browns last week and didn't get the job. When you can't land on the Browns' defense, you're not exactly pushing the top ten in the league, you know? If McD believes that Ty Law can be a part of this thing, well, he said the same thing about Andra Davis, Ronald Fields and a few other folks. I like his batting average so far.

Some have claimed that the Williams example is different because he might play better in the future. Sure, that might happen, but it might happen more quickly if he receives a professional kick in the pants and finds out that he's not cutting it on the field. If he's not showing signs of improving, and that seems obvious from the situation, I can't question why the Broncos cut him loose. Look to CBs in the upcoming draft and/or free agency.

Sporting News Magazine

As part of the price of getting the War Room info, I also receive the site's magazine. Like all of them, some issues resonate, others don't. This week's was interesting on several levels.

First, they noted that it's a copycat league, which is not exactly hot news, but they did a nice job of identifying some trends that go into that. The first one listed was a supposed move to younger head coaches, and Josh McD was, appropriately, the poster boy for that blurb. I'm honestly not sure that it's an advantage to be younger or older, but it's an advantage to be smart as heck and to have a lifelong background in football. Kudos to the coach on the job he's done. SNM claimed in talking about the 3-4 trend that Dom Capers and then Dick LeBeau had 'originated' the 3-4, but then backtracked and said that many teams used it in the 70s and 80s, with Denver being the admitted role model. That Capers/LeBeau was the origin modern version is a fair statement.

The mag also listed its midseason awards, and several current Broncos were front and center. Elvis Dumervil trailed DEFENSIVE MVP Darren Sharper by only 4 of the 99 votes (the votes were taken among current, active players). Dumervil also won the BIGGEST SURPRISE PLAYER (17 votes) with Kyle Orton tied with Brett Favre for second at 13 votes apiece. Josh McD walked away with COACH OF THE YEAR although he'll be fighting Sean Payton for the full-year award.

Orton and Dumervil traded positions for the MOST UNDERRATED PLAYER, with Orton winning with 7 votes and Doom in second taking 4, tied with Drew Brees and Darren Sproles. That one surprised me - in what universe is Brees or Sproles anything other than a great player and teammate? The folks who underrated them have been kidding themselves, but that's free of charge as well as common and sometimes amusing.

Two players that Broncos fans are familiar with got high ratings on MOST OVERRATED and BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT. Shawne Merriman tied with Terrell Owens as the MOST OVERRATED (I don't know why they needed a color-change on the letters, bigger font, bold and caps to make the categories obvious, but that's how they did it) and Jay Cutler was just behind them. Cutler and Merriman also garnered votes as BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT. Cutler, it should be noted, did a nice job on Sunday against Arizona, but once again finds himself without a defense and currently doesn't have the receivers or O-line that he needs either. He also did well in completions - 29 of 47, 3 TDs and only one INT with 369 yards (sacked 3 times) - but once again did better at creating yardage than points, especially in the first half, when he was 20-29, 195 and got only 7 points.

What I laughed about with regard to those two categories was not that those two players were in each, but the bizarre logic behind it. Merriman is coming off a surgery that tends to take two seasons to recover from and folks are dunning him for not being at next year's level. Like him or hate him, that's pointless. The same goes for Cutler - I spent the offseason pointing out that Chicago didn't have the O-line or receivers to win consistently and other members dissected their D in detail (I was mostly down on the secondary, and haven't changed my tune). Consistency may be the hobgoblin of little minds, but it's also kind of useful in logic and those two categories were sheer CYA.

The Sporting News also put up its recommendations for this year's All Pro - Ryan Clady and Elvis Dumervil were first team. Congratulations to both!

Wildcat/Wild Horses

The same issue talked about the Wildcat and its variants, which was interesting. They list the Broncos as being one of the teams that doesn't use it, which is both true and false, depending on your specific definition. More interesting was the followup article on Saints coordinator Gregg Williams, who held Miami to running the Wildcat 14 times for 27 yards. For those who didn't see the game, the WC seems to be mostly limited to a run-play formation, which is a huge weakness. Based on that, Williams blitzed both corners and one safety whenever the WC was set up and drove MIA insane by doing so. The Wild Horses has a big advantage there.

The Wild Horses not only gives us a chance to peek at the defense, it's also set up to become a passing attack. Since the rest of the league is running out of the WC at least 80% of the time, this makes our attack unique. That's something that the Steelers found out on the first drive Monday night. The Broncos didn't really stay with it, but it showed why the formation is unique among the versions of the WC that are out there.

The Price of Arrogance

I had some pretty irritated reactions to my recent comment that the players on the Chargers who were arguing on the sidelines, acting out and taking their arguments to the media are guilty of 'arrogance'. It seemed that the term 'arrogance' irritated folks as much as having their players called out and I was inundated with comments that I was 'arrogant' for saying that they were arrogant (Very subtle and witty, folks. There were at least a half dozen people making that incredibly insightful weak pun).

It shouldn't surprise anyone that I called the players out on this, though. I've said the same thing about Broncos players such as Brandon Marshall when he did the same, not to mention Nate Webster, Jay Cutler and a half dozen others. Players who aren't about the team first are about themselves first, which I consider to be the definition of ego and arrogance and an invitation to disaster as a team. I understand that folks believe that if you're not a fan of a certain team, you shouldn't use that term, but it is what it is.

To put this in perspective, I was interested to note that Bill Belichick referenced the same problem recently. Jimmy Johnson had once made a comment that only a limited number of teams will beat you - the others will self-destruct each year. In response to that quote, Belichick said,

Jimmy probably said the same thing to you that he once said to me: "You’re really only competing with about 10 teams a year. If you just say out of the way, the other 20 teams will screw it up themselves. Whether it’s ownership or personnel or coaching or some combination of factors." Ego, internal struggle, something will happen to two-thirds of the teams, that was Jimmy’s theory. That leaves you with about 10 teams that you’re going to have to really battle with. Those teams have it together. They’re going to make good decisions and if you play bad football, they’re going to take advantage of it. They’re going to find some undrafted guy or some middle-round pick or some veteran free agent who is going to spark their team. Pittsburgh is always going to be there. Indianapolis is always going to be there. They may not win it, but they’ll be there. You’re going to have to beat them. Philadelphia is going to be there. Yeah, [quarterback Donovan] McNabb might get hurt one year and they might go 7-9, but they’re going to be there. You’re still battling them on every front.

This is exactly what I'm referring to when I get on certain teams or payers about their ego or their arrogance. If your players are acting out on the sidelines, if they're talking about their unhappiness in the papers, they're contributing to the opposing team's success, and that's just pointless. No matter what team it shows up in, I'm going to point out that it's a bad idea. Seriously, what's the argument in favor of what a good idea it is? This is what the best teams don't do.

A perfect example of this kind of arrogance from this week's games? Tommie Harris, Chicago Bears DT. Harris is a very good player with a very bad attitude, which got him benched for the Cleveland game. The Bears aren't stopping the pass and their pass rush has been lacking, but their run defense remained stout and he's a key element there. So, during a game in which the Bears later lost two more members of the secondary (SS Al Afalava and CB Charles Tillman) Harris got so self-involved that he threw a blatant sucker punch at a defenseless opposing player (OT Deuce Lutui) who was already on the ground, 64 lousy seconds into the game. That might cost the Bears his services for that game was well as (potentially) this coming Thursday as he sits out a suspension. Since Chicago is on the line, with two more losses perhaps costing them the playoffs for a third consecutive year, that action stands out as the boneheaded play of the season so far. The Johnson Principle - handing over games by self-centered actions - is in full swing.

When a Bronco does it, I'll call that player on it as well. But, just because I'm not rooting for a certain team doesn't make it any less arrogant or any less foolish when it happens. I really don't care if it's your team or not - it isn't a very bright thing to do. One thing that I like about this year's Broncos - each person that I've listened to has taken the loss on himself and talked about the team in a positive and supportive way. That's just the way it ought to be.

Final Thoughts - What's On the Line

In regards to the running game, LG, C, and RT are exposed at the moment. One is due to injury while the others will have many wondering, "what the hell happened"!?

Say hello to my fast...

by dcrespo7 on Nov 10, 2009 3:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

It's a good, valid, and ultimately important point. I don't really wonder what happened - Hamilton hasn't been the same since the injury, whether they are linked or not. Casey Wiegmann is losing to the only player he ever will again - Father Time. Tyler Polumbus would/will need time to get his own timing and communication down right. We like to believe that everyone can learn instantly, but it usually doesn't work that way, sad to say. Ryan Harris will be back, perhaps, which would help, and Chris Kuper has been a rock. Ryan Clady has some sophomore stuff going on, but he's fine. Polumbus will show us how vulnerable we are by the time Harris makes it back.

Let's be fair. There's no way that one team could have solved anything else in this little time. The changes in this team are tremendous, quick, and have generally been effective. When you have a major weakness get exposed during a season, sometimes you need a little time to fix it. It's this team's first season together, so it's not like they've had a decade to work out the kinks.

Washington might be the tonic that we need. Traveling is never easy - statistically, I've seen that it affects winning substantially, so this will not be considered a cakewalk. We need a decisive win, whatever the score. Still - that's a doable goal. I don't see losing the last two games as that big a deal - we've won a lot more than we've lost and both teams had tremendous games, a fact that seems to have escaped many fans' attention. We need to make some adaptations, and I look forward to seeing what they are.

Go Broncos!

MHR Chalk Talk - Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos MNF ('09, wk 8)

Steve Nichols — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:57:29 -0000

Folks, this is the game I've been waiting for all season. There is an awful lot to look at between these two teams, and from a purely Xs and Os standpoint, this game should be a feast for football lovers.

The Steelers are the defending SB champions. Their young coach had to start under the shadow of a big name. This is a team that has excellent players in just about every facet of the game, and they are used very well by the coach.

The Broncos have emerged from a few years wandering the wilderness, and have a near perfect record. Their young coach had to start out in the shadow of a big name. Excellent players? Check. Great coaching? Check.

And this game will be on Monday night. Does it get any better?

Read on....

Offensive Postion Analysis

I'm going to break this week down a little differently than what we're used to. Let's start with my comparison of the teams' units.

QB - PIT

Let's face it; Kyle Orton is for real. His 95.5 rating is due in big part to a lack of INTs. In 7 games, he has 1 INT thrown on a "hail Mary" pass to close out a half. Orton makes his living in Denver by throwing screens, hitches, and curls. He is willing to throw the ball away or to take a sack rather than throw an INT. This looks ugly to many fans, but it demonstrates a style of play that isn't what Denver fans are used to. Gone are the "gamble and scramble" days. Orton doesn't gamble; he picks his targets or throws off. Boring? Yes. Effective? It wins games.

But "Big Ben" is an established QB, with a lot of good football behind (and ahead) of him. He does it all. Ben Roethlisberger can throw and run, and has experience up to and including the Super Bowl. His rating is 102.6

Ben gets that rating by completing his passes. Where Orton is at a career best 63.6 completion percentage, Big Ben is at 70.4. Both QBs are good at what they do, and Orton has been terribly underrated. But I have to give Ben the advantage here.

WR - tie

Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward are two big names in the NFL football ranks. While the Steelers have always been a tough, smash mouth team, they are airing out the ball this year. Holmes and Ward have been a big part of the 5-2 start. Both players are not only key in the pass game, but can get physical and run block as well. These guys present a solid 1-2 punch.

Denver isn't lacking either. Brandon Marshall has estabalished himself as a real star this year. Changing his mind on being a hold out, and (it is to be hoped) having put the off field issues behind him, Marshall has proven that he is a physical receiver who can run you over. Against the Cowboys though, he proved he can zig and zag through a defense too. Opposite Marshall is Eddie Royal, who garnered 2 returns for TDs in a game. A legit #1 receiver, Royal has speed and cuts that make him a deadly threat if he catches the ball in full stride. Denver's hidden strength is depth at WR, with route specialist Jabar Gaffney and smart / physical Brandon Stokley equaly deadly at the slot position.

TE - DEN

This is a tougher call than many Denver fans might think. Obviously, Daniel Graham is a monster blocker with good hands, and Tony Scheffler is a receiver in a TEs tough body. And yes, Richard Quinn is a tough blocking rookie. Yes, I'll take Denver. But don't be fooled, because Pittsburgh is loaded too.

Heath Miller is an excellent TE, as is Matt Spaeth. David Johnson can be brought in for a 3-TE look, and (in fact) I would call PITT one of three teams capable of playing 3 TE sets on a consistent basis this year if they wanted to. (DEN and NE are the other two, based on history with the formation and other factors).

I give Denver a slight edge here.

RB - DEN

You have to love Correll Buckhalter. Anyone who averages 6 yards per carry this far into the season is a keeper. His 18 receptions aren't shabby either. Rookie Knowshon Moreno has been getting his feet wet, and owns a 3.9 average.

Rashard Mendenhall is a power running back who has better speed and elusiveness than most power runners. His 5.4 average is very, very good. PIT could run the ball a lot more with this kid if they wanted to. The only criticism I've heard is that he can fumble the ball. He has two fumbles (both for losses) this year, but that's better than Moreno (3 fumbles - all lost) and tied with Buckhalter (also two fumbles, but lost one).

OL - DEN

The most notable issue for Denver is the loss of RT Ryan Harris. One of the best RTs in the League, he'll be missed this week. While I think Tyler Polumbus can hold his own against most teams, I respect the Steeler's defense, and TE Daniel Graham will likely need to be limited to Pass blocking duty to offset the loss.

Denver's other strength is LT Ryan Clady, who is arguably one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL today, and still young. And while Ben Hamilton and Chris Kuper are both very good at what they do, Center Casey Wiegmann is the real anchor in the middle of the OL.

Denver's only weakness on the OL is the lack of power for short yardage. Denver seems to be asking the athletic and agile lineman to assist with power runs up the gut, something they aren't built for. As the season has worn on, Denver has gotten further from their zone blocking tradition. For what it is worth (and in the eyes of Denver's coaching staff, it isn't going to be worth anything), I think Denver needs to get back to the ZB. If Denver wants to transition into a typical run blocking scheme, then they should at least play to the current strength of the OL players. The ZB is always run as a short yardage play, with the very real possibilty that it will break open. Right now, we don't have the bodies to support dives and slams.

On the other hand, if PIT has a weakness, I think it is the OL. Big Ben has been sacked 20 times this year, and faces a terrific pass rush from Denver. I think the OL is improving, but they have a ways to go.

Offensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 23.9 (14th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 383 (6th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 276 (5th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 107 (19th)

Folks, we need to wake up and smell the coffee. We are not in the top ten in any single offensive category I've listed. There is no room for Orton bashing. It is clear that Orton is doing his job, and doing it well. A QB rating in the 90s means a good QB, and we've seen what our receivers can do. We are also over 100 yards per game rushing, which is the classic standard. But we have some things to address, and we need to move fast.

First, we need to fix our short yardage issues in the running game. Next, we need to start getting TDs. A 6-1 record is a good thing, and each of our players are doing a good job. But if we are going to make the playoffs, we will need to be able to put up more points.

I wrote in last weeks article that Denver is NOT a shoot out team. We have come back from poor 1st halfs all year, but we can't rack up points if the opposing team decides to make the game high tempo. It was a major key for Baltimore last week, and they executed. Like NE, Denver likes to accumulate small advantages and chip away at the other team, winning close if neccassary. But Denver needs to be more like NE in another respect; Denver needs to be able to run up scores when needed.

At this point in the season, Denver has a cushion to find out what the problems are (6-1). But we'll need to see some adjustments quickly. Coach McDaniels has proven that he can make adjustments during half time. Now we need to see if he can make adjustments over the course of a season, which is a completely different skill set for a coach.

PITT has the better QB, and the better passing game. PITT's only concern is the OL, but that is a big concern. I think PITT's running game could be better if they committed to the run, but they haven't needed to. If we were comparing offenses, I would give the advatage to PITT. They beat us in everything except running the ball. But folks, we don't compare the same units (off vs off). We compare offenses to defenses. Before we do that, let's look at the defenses so that we'll know what to compare.

Defensive Position Analysis

We have two great defenses lining up this week, and this is a real treat for fans of defense. I love the Iron Curtain almost as much as I love the Orange Crush. This year, both units are in elite form.

DL - PITT

Just how good is the PITT DL? Consider this. Aaron Smith goes down for the season. Losing a starting DE is a rough thing to deal with. Then his back-up goes down for this week (Travis Kirschke). Does PITT panic? Not at all. Ziggy Hood and Nick Eason step into the gap without missing a beat. Like Denver, PITT is ok with rotations on the line, and they have depth.

Denver (on the other hand) may not see Ryan McBean at LDE this week (LDG if you consider the DEnver defense to be a true 5-2). This is a bigger problem for Denver. Denver rotates the line too, but I wouldn't yet put the defensive line in PITT's league. I'm not saying that the Denver DL isn't good by any stretch. I'm just saying that we are great, but PITT is excellent.

OLBs - DEN

I don't care if we call them DEs or OLBs, but Denver is stacked at the position and can rotate all day long.

One guy to keep in place is Elvis Dumervil. With 10 sacks for the season, you can bet that PITT is scheming to stop him. Playing at RDE (ROLB), Doom is a sack master who uses his low center of gravity and long wingspan to out-judo his opponents in the bull rush, and uses speed and agility to get around blockers when rushed wide.

Denver can sprinkle in Mario Haggan, Darrell Reid, and Robert Ayers to stay fresh. (Watch for PITT to counter with the no-huddle. More on this later).

At ILB, Denver has Andra Davis, who has been rejuventated playing in Denver. Davis uses strength and leverage to get his way. To his right, D.J. Williams continues to be the anchor for the LBs. His skill set is based more on speed and agility, but he is as tough as nails and not a light LB. Even back-ups Spencer Larsen and Wesley Woodyard are dangerous when put on the field.

PITT also has an excellent LB corps. There is some concern about whether Lawrence Timmons (RILB) will be able to play on Monday. I expect him to show up, and to play 100%. Like talking about the DL, I may sound like I'm putting down a unit because I pick the other. Not so. Both teams have great DLs, and I gave the edge to PITT. Both teams have great LBs, but I'll give the edge to Denver.

CBs - DEN

Some folks will find fault with the PITT CBs. Not me. Ike Taylor is a good CB, and so is William Gay. Both are fundementaly sound, underrated, and a terrific tandem. (Watch Ike for blitzes. He is one of the best blitzing CBs in the League. If he doesn't get to the QB, he still typicaly causes hurry ups. He may be moved between left and right CB as well).

However, they are nothing near Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman. Bailey is going to the Hall of Fame some day, and Goodman is playing better ball in Denver than in Miami. In fact, he's doing it even though he's going to get a lot of throws his way when QBs avoid Bailey.

And while Jack Williams is ill, Denver does fine with rookie Alphonso Smith playing at nickle.

SAF - DEN

Both teams have excellent safeties. Denver has the player that revolutionized the safety position - Weapon X - Brian Dawkins. Older? Yes. Depleted? Not yet. Dawkins is tearing up the field for Denver by being in on most plays and keeping the defense fired up. He is the leadership this defense has been missing. Next to him, Renaldo Hill (like CB Goodman) has come to Denver and is playing better football. Together, these two safeties have been amazing. Their back-ups would be worth writing about, but many are injured (Josh Barett and David Bruton). Rookie Darcel McBath has the potential if he is needed.

But PITT has Troy Polamalu at Safety, and he's a beast. Don't let the shampoo comercials and the soft voice fool you. Troy is one of those safeties that can do it all - hit, tackle, intercept, disrupt, and cover. He is arguably one of the top five (if not number one) safeties in the League, along with Dawkins and Reed. He's coming off of an injury, but expected to play.

The big news this week is Ryan Clark at free safety. Because of a rare blood disorder, Clark should not be playing in Denver's altitude. My heart goes out to the guy, as there is talk he may not even be allowed to make the trip.

STs - DEN

You didn't think I'd give STs their own section did you? Of course not.

Ok, there may be reason to worry about Prater. Read more from MHR member OrangeandBlue27 here. And we just switched out punters, didn't we? But PITT has the kick and punt coverage that Denver must have had last year. PITT has given up 3 TD on STs in the last 3 weeks. Royal has been know to get two TDs on returns in one game.

Defensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 13.7 (2nd) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 266.7 (1st) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 180.6 (8th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 86.1 (3rd) 76.6 (1st)

I'm hearing a lot about the almighty Steelers defense this week. Let's give credit where credit is due. Pittsburgh has a great defense. But Denver beats Pittsburgh in every category but one, where Denver still manages a third best in the League ranking. Another stat to throw in - Denver allows 1/3 of opposing 3rd down conversions (33.3%), while PITT is allowing 43.3%.

In sum, both teams should stop the run this game. That much is clear. But how do the units match against there opposite numbers? What about the systems, the plays, and the head to head match ups?

~~~

Pre-Game Analysis

Strategic

Denver is 6-1. SIX AND ONE! They are at home on a Monday night, and except for one key injury, are all on the field. Pittsburgh is 5-2, including a close loss to CIN (a team Denver beat) and CHI. Both loses were close, so PITT is pretty darned close to being unbeaten themselves. I'll grant that. But 6 and 1 is nothing to sneeze at. Unless you are a sports writer (more on that in a moment). PITT may be missing some players, and others are coming off of injuries. Still, PITT had a bye week to rest and prepare.

I love the media. I really do (not). Some of my favorite things I've read this week include a ridiculous story about how accurate those Vegas guys are, knowing to pick against an undefeated Denver team and to go with Baltimore. Nice. Don't bother mentioning that Denver is 6-1, despite Vegas being wrong in six of those games (Denver was only favored one time). Another article (I won't mention John Clayton by name) buys into the mantra that Orton has a weak arm. Yet another claims that the Ravens and the Steelers have similar defenses. They're both physical, and both play a lot of 3-4, but the Ravens have been playing the 2 gap Fairbanks-Bullough system, while the Steelers have been playing the Lebeau Zone Blitz.

The minute Denver loses "one" game, the doubters came out (as predicted by many at MHR). All of a sudden, we are a team preparing to enter a death spiral. All of a sudden, we're not as good as we thought we were.

As of today, factoring in tie breaks, Denver is the number two team behind unbeaten Indianapolis in the AFC. In the NFL, Denver ranks as the fourth best team (Saints and Vikings are 2nd and 3rd).

Not enough for you? Denver has beaten the 5th, 6th, and 7th best teams in the NFL (CIN, DAL, and NE). One game is not the end of this team. In fact, a loss at this point in the season (while not prefered) gives the team better film to study. There isn't as much to find on film from a win, but a loss provides much room for analysis and growth for a good team. Rather the loss now than in the playoffs.

Let's not sell PITT short. As I mentioned earlier, their only two losses were close ones, and this team has star power.

But certainly don't sell Denver short. Denver has a 6-1 record against teams with an average winning percentage of .510 (opposing teams combined for 26-25 record). That beats PITT's opponents, who have a losing average. Those opponents are at .451 (a combined 23-28). More amazing is to factor in that Denver's opponents have a better record than PITT's, despite the fact that each of Denver's opponents had to play "Denver", who gave 6/7ths of those teams a loss (compared to PITT, who handed out losses to 5/7ths).

In other words, we have two very, very good teams on the field. A lot of folks are nervous because Denver has lost one game. But over the course of this season, Denver has played better ball and has a better record and stats to show for it.

Let's revisit the comparisons between rankings, but look at offensive vs defensive match-ups.

Denver Offense PITT Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 76.6 (1st)

On offense, we see that PITT beats us relatively in every category but one (the pass game), where we rank even. Now let's look at how PITT does on offense.

PITT Offense Denver Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 23.9 (14th) 13.7 (2nd)

Yards avg per game - 383 (6th) 266.7 (1st)

Pass avg per game - 276 (5th) 180.6 (8th)

Rush avg per game - 107 (19th) 86.1 (3rd)

Here, we beat PITT in every category but one. Again, it is the pass game that is different. Here PITT beats us. So relative to how each team has played so far (as measured in rankings), DEN wins in 6 stats, PITT wins in 7, and the teams tie in another.

The margin in the difference in rankings over all favor PITT by 29 "ranking points" when we have the ball, and favor Denver by 20 When PITT has the ball. On the other hand, Denver's defense is 32 points better than PITT's defense, while PITT's Offense is only 17 pts better than Denver's.

The key is the actual points on the score board at the end of the game, and this is where efficieny comes in. Remember the stat I mentioned about third down conversions? It comes into play when we look at teams moving the ball down the field. Even though PITT averages about two more minutes in time of possession, Denver runs the ball better, even though both teams are near each other in terms of rushing defense. While PITT is likely to stop Denver on the ground, they'll have a harder time stopping the Denver running game relative to Denver stopping PITT's 19th ranked run game. The pass offenses and defenses are very close for both teams, and is a wash.

Tactical

I see three approaches for the Steelers on offense this week.

No huddle scheme
Run heavy scheme
Passing attack

Those are over-simplifications, but they'll make the points easier to understand.

First, the no huddle looks good on paper. Every one from Clayton to Big Ben are advocating it for this week. I see some problems with this approach. First, this game isn't in Baltimore, it is in the Mile High city. Assuming that Denver is conditioned to the altitude (metabolic levels, etc), does PITT really want to level the playing field between the defense and offense in terms of endurance? The way to beat a defense at altitude is to win time of possession by keeping the defense on the field. You do that with no-huddle, but the higher tempo leads to a change of possesion quicker (whether from a turnover, score, or inability to convert a down). Why not just keep the ball, and move down the field consistently? Besides, Denver has almost certainly devoted a lot of practice hours to adjusting for the no huddle in light of last week's game.

The second approach is to run the ball more. I this approach much more. PITT hasn't been winning games on the ground, they've done it in the air. Folks might argue that the low ranking in average run yards is because of a lack of commitment to the run, and this is true. But against the third best run defense in the League, why not give the ball to your star QB, or at least strike a balance?

The passing attack may be the way to go. The best players on the offense are arguably at QB and WR, and this has been working for PITT. The question is, can the OL protect Ben? Denver has a great sack scheme, and PITT'S OL isn't the best right now. Ben can take hits, and can throw on the run. He's a big, fast player in the mold of an Elway.

For Denver, they need to throw the ball. The run has been under utiized by PITT, but despite Denver's decent individual stats, Denver just isn't tearing teams apart with the run game. Together, the run and the pass have moved the ball down the field for Denver, but not created a lot of points in quick strikes. This will beat most teams, but won't win shoot outs. In fact, if Denver hope to beat INDY in Dec, they had better learn how to put up points on every long drive OR put up points quickly on most drives.

In a surprise twist, I wonder if McDaniels feels that Orton can handle a no huddle or two? This would be the game to bring it out. You can beat a physical defense at altitude with a good no huddle.

Denver needs to keep their TEs in to block this game. PITT's zone blitz is formidable, and two TEs are the standard counter to a 3-4. Graham (TE) in particular will be needed to assist the right side of the line in pass blocking with the Harris missing at RT. I don't expect many passes to TEs in this game. If Orton uses a safety valve, it will likely be a running back.

Expect bump and run from the Steeler CBs, but coverage to be over the top. Expect the safeties of PITT to play the pass more than the run in deep zone. LBs and DLs will take turns in zones and rushing the passer in the typical zone blitz manner. I expect the PITT defense to do a good job shutting down the run.

Expect the Denver defense to play off or on coverage, but not tight. The Denver CBs will play underneath in most match-ups. While one Denver ILB zones the middle, mans the RB, or blitzes, the other ILB will take one of the other two assignments. The OLBs (DEs) will rush or zone.

PITT will vary their offense, presenting 2 TE sets, I forms, and 3 receiver sets. I don't expect Denver to use a FB, so expect 2 TE or 3 WR sets.

Keys to the Game

Denver

Denver lost last week when they let the Ravens get after Orton. Denver's OL must hold.
Denver lost last week when they let the game turn into a shoot out. They probably can't run against the Ravens very well, but too many passes may lead to a shoot out. Denver needs to complete a lot of intermediate and short passes, get into a rhythm, and move the ball consistently and slowly (this will also tire the PITT defense).
Ben is a terrific QB. But he makes mistakes. If the pass rush can reach Ben (and it should against the Steeler's OL), an elite secondary has the chance to make key INTs. Rush Ben, and don't drop those INTs.

PITT

Win time of possesion. If you want to win in the altitude (something PITT hasn't done much of), you need to keep your defense off of the field. Try the no-huddle if you want to, but keep the oxygen handy for your guys on both sides of the ball.
Challenge with the run game. If Mendenhall can match his terrific YPC average, run down the Broncos. At worst, it doesn't work and you still have a great passing game. But try the run out.
Don't kick to Royal. You're better off kicking out of bounds on punts.

This game could go either way. For every stat that favors one team, another stat counters it. PITT is a more physical team, and a more balanced team. Denver has the better defense. Perhaps the Baltimore game has helped to prepare Denver for the Steelers.

This will be a great Monday Night Football encounter. I like Denver at home, with the better record against a tougher schedule in the first 8 weeks (7 games). For that reason, I don't understand PITT getting 3 points in Vegas. Still, PITT is no joke, and I'm not fully confident with picking Denver. The reason? While we have a SB caliber defense, our offense is "just" doing well. It needs to play much better than that if we are going to beat the many types of teams we'll be playing this year. We rank in the bottom half of the League in passing yards per game and points. The points stat really stands out.

Good teams lose ball games, but they lose close (as PITT has). Yes, we had one loss, but it wasn't close. An inability to dominate is the problem. Good teams "find a way to win". That's what we've been doing. Great teams dominate, and we have yet to do that.

This week, I'm confident that the Steelers come in with a good game plan and players ready to execute. I know the Denver players will be fired up (or Dawkins will be kicking butts in the locker room). What I'm looking forward to seeing is how McDaniels adjusts to a loss. I've already bought in to the McDaniels way, and I'm hoping that he's on top of this aspect of coaching too.

Denver wins (fingers crossed and nervous as Hell).

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Winning with Seneca Wallace Part 2: Idiot Proofing

John Morgan — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 23:04:40 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Building a roster around Seneca Wallace is a kind of idiot proofing. Instead of adding the quarterback and building around his talent, Seattle will add the talent and hope it can find a quarterback that can fit.

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Why Seneca? Does Seattle have a choice?

Matt Hasselbeck has entered that agonizing phase of his career where injuries are around every hit. Seattle could sign Jason Campbell, but maybe they can't. Campbell is a restricted free agent in an uncapped season. If the NFL hashes out that problem and Campbell becomes an unrestricted free agent, there's still no certainty he signs with Seattle or Seattle signs him. Seattle could draft a quarterback, but developing a quarterback is a lengthy process. One reason Detroit selected Matthew Stafford is that should Stafford develop, he will be entering his prime just as the Lions are finishing their rebuild.

Wallace, for all his flaws, is learning the Greg Knapp system, has game experience in the Knapp system, is developed or as developed as he'll be (and a good bit better than Stafford or Mark Sanchez) and has a certain floor. Wallace has a certain expected minimum performance.

Why Seneca? Because like it or lump it, Seneca Wallace might be the best quarterback available in 2010.

A player like C.J. Spiller adds new dimensions to the offense and reduces Wallace's burden. It won't work if Spiller is regularly fighting his way out of the backfield. That means Seattle needs to add primetime talent to their line. It doesn't need a full rebuild of its line, but it does need better, healthier depth and another premium talent to play alongside Chris Spencer. Adding a left tackle improves depth, improves the right tackle position, where Sean Locklear can play, and actually saves the team some scratch.

It's a lucky coincidence that what Seattle needs to run the ball is exactly what Wallace needs to protect himself from himself. The infinity drops won't stop, but a long limbed, natural left tackle that can mirror his man and continue to control the edge all the way through the back end can help shield Wallace's abysmal pocket presence. We're not talking a road grader. Seattle will be in the market for a Charles Brown, Selvish Capers type. Someone that can kick out, cut and has the foot speed to keep up with our loony tunes signal caller.

Adding a tackle is a start, but Seattle needs to improve its depth and specifically, depth that can excel in Knapp's system. The Seahawks should pursue Daryn Colledge, Marshal Yanda, Chris Kuper or even someone like Khalif Barnes and Alex Barron, two players that have flunked out at tackle but could improve as guards.

The idea is to turn Seneca Wallace into a David Garrard by improving the talent around him and creating a system that is run first, strict, and powered by play action. You do not create the Wallace system because it's ideal, but because it satisfies basic needs and deemphasizes the quarterback. Ideally, the system that can work with Wallace can work with Mike Teel, Zac Robinson, Case Keenum or Tim Tebow, allowing Wallace to be the crash test dummy, and the kid Seattle drafts, the driver. Wallace keeps the team competitive enough to add free agent talent and avoid the high stakes pit of perennial top ten picks. Teams do not win Super Bowls with Seneca Wallace, but Wallace could be Seattle's Jim Harbaugh or Drew Bledsoe.

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:30:25 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

about 1 month ago: Baltimore Ravens cornerback Lardarius Webb, left, carries the ball for a touchdown as Denver Broncos safety David Bruton pursues during the third quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2009, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

Browse more photos »

Happy Tuesday, friends, if you can manage one. Welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Well, this was bound to happen, right? Since Sunday afternoon, I have been thinking about what the right tone is to take with this week's ST&NO. I still haven't decided, and it's Monday at 5 PM as I write this paragraph. I guess I am just going to go with it, and play it like it feels. We had an ugly loss, and to top it off, there were only 4 late games, and no Sunday night game, so I didn't see a lot of live football, at all. We'll make do, because that's all we can do. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire y'all. Ready.... BEGIN!!!!

1. The two plays which set the tone for yesterday's game happened at the beginning of each half. On the Broncos' first play from scrimmage, Jarret Johnson came in untouched and unrecognized off the defense's left side, and creamed Kyle Orton for a big loss. As I watched the play happen, I couldn't help but think that the Broncos may not be well-prepared if they weren't expecting a lot of blitzing.

As the second half got underway, Lardarius Webb took the opening kickoff back 95 yards for a TD. That took a manageable 6-0 halftime deficit to 13-0, and essentially dictated that the Broncos start playing come-from-behind football. You see the picture of this play, and I used it because it sticks in my craw (whatever a craw is), and I want it stick in yours, too. I guarantee it bothers the coaches and players. You can't have that happen and expect to win.

The final score, 30-7, sounds like a blowout, but this game wasn't really that. This game swung on field position, and third-down performance, which was directly driven by down-and-distance situations. The Ravens made key plays on 3rd down, and the Broncos missed opportunities to make those plays.

There's an offensive concept called staying on schedule, and it means that from first and 10, you get to 2nd and 6, and then to 3rd and 2. All your down-and-distance situations are manageable if you stay on schedule. It's a really good thing to do every game, but it's absolutely imperative against a team like Baltimore, which can bring a bunch of overload pressure and force a QB to either throw way short of the first down or eat the ball.

Actually, the Broncos did a great job throughout the game with first-down defense, and getting Baltimore off schedule themselves. The Ravens, though, led by Joe Flacco, made enough plays to negate those early-down advantages.

The world didn't end, and all we can hope is that some lessons are learned from the experience by the players and coaches, and that those lessons are applied to future situations. Sometimes a loss is a growth opportunity, and I think that there is a solid reson to think that this loss was one of those.

2. Information From My Eyes. Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens:

a. I thought Mitch Berger was awul on Sunday, despite Josh McDaniels' charitable comments about his performance. Hang time is fine, but I want changes in field position. The Broncos lost the field position game the whole first half, in large part because of bad punting.

b. I disliked the offensive game plan and the play calling. The 3rd-and-5 sweep for Correll Buckhalter on the second series is an example. I thought there were too many screens against a team which clearly came to stop the screen. I wanted to see more use of Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal agains the Baltimore CBs, and I am perplexed as to why we didn't get more of that.

c. I was really pleased with the way that Mario Haggan was consistently setting the edge in this game. He has a physical style of play which is perfect for the position he plays. It's pretty shocking that he was basically a special teamer only in Buffalo, because he's a top-notch 3-4 OLB.

d. I don't blame Knowshon Moreno very much for the fumble (this time). That play was doomed from the start, with Jarret Johnson forcing a high throw and tough catch, and Moreno turning right into a thumping from Ed Reed.

e. Andra Davis is playing at a Pro Bowl level this season, when he is on the field. He plays downhill all the time and has a great sense of timing with the snap count. The great thing about him is that he seems to be cool with coming off the field on 3rd downs, and letting Wesley Woodyard play the long-yardage situations, which Woodyard's much better suited for.

f. There was a lot of dancing by Brandon Marshall on his four catches. I'd like to see him get upfield quicker after the catch. I'd also like to see him use his physicality to get open on some downfield stuff.

g. I was tired by 10:30 Monday night, when I re-watched this game, so I didn't tally anything, but anecdotally, the screen game was a complete disaster on offense for the Broncos.

h. Kyle Orton had two easy interceptions dropped in this game. One was on a play where he got crushed and the ball came out weakly, and the other was a terrible decision, with Jarret Johnson sitting in an underneath zone, and Dawan Landry right behind him. Orton needs to play better than he did Sunday, like the rest of the offense.

i. With the score 16-7 early in the 4th quarter, the Broncos had Baltimore in a 3rd and 12 near midfield. On consecutive plays, Elvis Dumervil and Darrell Reid jumped offsides. On the resulting 3rd and 2, Flacco escaped pressure and made a downfield throw to Derrick Mason. This basically ended the game, because soon after, Mason scored to make the score 23-7.

j. Renaldo Hill looked out of position on the aforementioned Mason TD. Andre' Goodman had outside leverage on the play, with good coverage, really, but Hill never got over the top to help him. He may have seen something that kept him in the shallow middle; but it was a bust, clear as day, because Brian Dawkins played the coverage like he had a deep half on the other side. Credit Flacco for seeing the blown coverage and making a perfect throw.

k. From the Ravens' side, I liked their use of the no-huddle stuff, and their attempts to vary tempo. The Broncos substitute very liberally, and are one of the most package-intensive defenses in the NFL. By having to hesitate on substituting at times, they assumed a disadvantaged position against the Ravens. Really, I think that the lack of freshness of some players, who had larger than usual workloads, is a lot of what got them in the 4th quarter.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games:

a. As I mentioned, I didn't see a lot of other live games, since most ran at the same time as the Broncos game. To make up for that, I recorded some Short Cuts Sunday night, and hurried home from Day 1 of month-end close Monday to watch them. I started with the Jets and Dolphins, and my first (Nearsighted) Observation is that the Jets played a dominant game on defense, which surprised me a little. I thought they'd miss Kris Jenkins a lot more than they seemed to, especially with all the Wildcat stuff going on. The Jets held the Dolphins to 104 total yards, 52 each passing and rushing.

b. It's really something to score 30 points with 104 yards of offense. Jason Taylor got a fumble recovery for a TD and Ted Ginn returned two kickoffs. I have highlighted Ginn's lack of suddenness before - but let me tell you, when he gets going, he's as fast as anybody in the NFL. He outran players who had good angles on both TD returns. He may never be a top WR, but he's elite as a kickoff returner.

c. I think Thomas Jones is the most underrated player in the NFL. He started slow in the NFL, largely due to his being drafted by a horrible Arizona Cardinals team, but once he got it going in Tampa Bay, he's been a consistently productive player. He's on pace for 1,400 yards and 14 TDs this season, and is a big part of the Jets' success on offense.

d. The most overrated player has to be Jason Peters, just ahead of Alan Faneca and Flozell Adams. The bloom is mostly off the Faneca and Adams roses, at this point, but Peters still gets a lot of love from the MSM. I have just seen him get beat too many times the last two years, and the jury is in for me. He looks like he'd make a good Right Tackle, but on the left side, he gets beaten constantly by quick pass rushers. Osi Umenyiora owned him several times on Sunday.

e. DeSean Jackson is already a great player, and he's improving. He needs to be played physically, because if you let him run free through a defense, he's going to shred you. He's not really a true number-one receiver, who's going to defeat double coverage, but he's a dynamic outside guy.

f. The Eagles have a pretty fearsome passing game, when their line isn't getting Donovan McNabb sacked. Jeremy Maclin is having a solid rookie year, but I'm especially impressed with Brent Celek, who does a great job of catching the ball in traffic. He's now on pace for over 1,000 receiving yards this season. Celek isn't much of a blocker, really, but he even had a good hold that didn't get called on Sunday, helping spring Leonard Weaver's long TD run.

g. ST&NO favorite Alex Smith had a pretty nice game on Sunday against Indianapolis. He looks really comfortable in the shotgun, and led a great hurry-up TD drive at the end of the first half. For his part, Smith looked good for most of the game. The 49ers offense just repeatedly found ways to take bad penalties or give up sacks, (especially in the second half, after Joe Staley got hurt), which kept stopping the offense. Smith is showing a good rapport with Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree, who looks like the real deal, already, two weeks into his career.

h. Peyton Manning was a little off on Sunday with his deep ball. That happens so infrequently that I thought it was worth highlighting.

i. I still can't figure out why the Colts cut Ed Johnson a couple weeks ago. They're very vulnerable to the inside running game without him. The Colts brass said the release was performance-related, but I don't buy that for a second. Johnson was definitely their best DT.

j. Very interesting news Monday evening that the Chargers had released Chris Chambers. He has been struggling to get the separation he used to get, but waiving him seems like a pretty extreme measure. You can't tell me that he couldn't beat nickel or dime CBs against most teams. I'd be very surprised if he isn't on a new team very quickly.

k. The Raiders had a legitimate shot to drive to a tying TD and 2-point conversion in the final minutes of Sunday's game against the Chargers. Then, something completely emblematic of the Raiders happened. Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey lined up on the offense's right side, and both ran vertical routes against man coverage. The inside receiver released outside of the DB covering him, and the outside receiver released inside. They bumped into each other, and both fell down. JaMarcus Russell had nowhere to throw the ball and got sacked, despite a 7-step drop and max protection on the play. The game was functionally over at that point.

l. Aaron Rodgers got beaten up mercilessly again on Sunday, particularly early in the game. I actually thought T.J. Lang was generally pretty solid at LT, but Jared Allen still got 3 sacks. He now has 7.5 sacks in 2 games against Green Bay this year, which is like giving him a handicap in the sack race with Elvis Dumervil.

m. I really thought that Arizona had gotten their act together, but they got hammered by Carolina on Sunday. They went into the game with the number-one run defense in the NFL, and then got run over by DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. I think it was an aberration, but that remains to be seen.

n. I've never liked Matt Ryan's arm much, and Monday night reinforced that feeling for me. Because the Falcons have a below-average line in pass protection, they max-protect a lot, leaving few receivers in the pattern. If the coverage is tight, as it was Monday, Ryan always seems to struggle to make throws to beat the coverage. He's really not too dissimilar to Kyle Orton in that way, though Orton throws the ball with more velocity. Ryan needs to have a lot of options, where he can pick a guy who is open. For that reason, Atlanta needs to focus on building their offensive line. Sam Baker, particularly, isn't good enough at LT, and would make a better LG. Baker got annihilated by Will Smith throughout Monday night's game.

o. My man Thomas DeCoud was at it again for the Falcons on Monday night. He had a sack that forced a TD in the first quarter. This guy is a big-time young player.

p. Jeff Triplette is the worst referee in the NFL, and it's not even close. He just couldn't figure out the clock on Monday night, and he has no command with the crowd. It always seems like he lets them rattle him. When you're a referee, a sheepish smile is a bad thing. You need to command the stadium, like Ed Hochuli and Mike Carey do. Gene Steratore is a good younger referee, too.

r. Marques Colston is having a fantastic year for the Saints. Prior to this year, I've always thought of him as a fairly-average starting WR who has benfitted from strong QB play, and a friendly system. I really see him winning a lot of one-on-one battles with his physicality now. He was targeted 6 times Monday night, and made 6 catches for 85 yards and a TD. He really battled for the ball on a few of those catches, including the TD.

4. Between The Lines, Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens

a. The Broncos had a very bad day in protection, and there's no way to sugarcoat that. The Ravens blitzed more often than what it seemed the Broncos were prepared for. Ryan Clady got beaten twice, which is twice more than usual, and got Orton hit. He was otherwise his normal self. The rag-doll was Ben Hamilton. I am getting tired of writing that every week, but if he's going to get his butt kicked, I'll keep writing it. Old friend Trevor Pryce destroyed Hamilton all game. Casey Wiegmann had his worst game of the year too, with Kelly Gregg beating him more often than not. I was pleased with Chris Kuper's play against Haloti Ngata, and I thought Tyler Polumbus did a very nice job filling in for Ryan Harris. The Broncos got Orton sacked twice (once by a DB) and pressured many more times than that. The passing game was a clear win for the Ravens defensive line.

b. The running aspect was actually better for the Broncos. They picked up a couple of 3rd and shorts, which was nice for a change, and generally held the line of scrimmage, and got a bit of surge against an excellent group for Baltimore. The only notable running play which was blown up was the 3rd-and-5 sweep. I liked the work of Clady and Kuper, and everybody was actually pretty solid in the running game. The Broncos only ran for 3.5 yards per carry - but against Baltimore, that's pretty solid. This was a draw, but one the Broncos would have been happy with if they'd protected better.

c. The Broncos did a good job pressuring Flacco throughout the game, and were beaten by some great throws and poise. These things happen. Jared Gaither held Elvis Dumervil repeatedly, but he didn't get penalized, so kudos to him, if he likes granola bars. Ben Grubbs and Michael Oher, the two best players on the Baltimore line, had good days, and the two weakest, Matt Birk and Chris Chester, didn't so much. A lot of the Broncos' pressure came from the Back 8, which is typical of them. The Ravens allowed a lot of pressure, but much like Ben Roethlisberger, Flacco showed a really good ability to evade the pressure, and make plays in spite of it.

d. The Broncos defense won big in the running game, until the last 10 minutes of the game, when it seemed like they wore down. The Broncos had 10 tackles for loss, which is the kind of performance that typically wins games. Unfortunately, Flacco's big plays negated a lot of this good work. When you consider it separately though, the Broncos won this battle for most of the game. Notable Broncos were Ronald Fields, Kenny Peterson, and Marcus Thomas. Ryan McBean got some penetration too, and Le Kevin Smith made a good play, also.

e. Overall, you have to give an edge to Baltimore, for how well they pressured Kyle Orton. It was the primary reason the Broncos never got untracked on offense. The Broncos did a more-than-respectable job in the other phases, though.

5. Word broke on Monday that the Browns had fired General Manager George Kokinis. I really can't imagine why they'd want to do that. Reportedly, Randy Lerner is displeased that Kokinis didn't take an active role in speaking to the media and communicating to the outside world. If that's really the problem, then I think it's clear that Lerner doesn't get professional football. During the season, the GM needs to be quiet and let the Head Coach be the voice of the team. This is the way it works everywhere, even a place like Baltimore, where GM Ozzie Newsome is the top football guy in the organization. That's where Kokinis came from.

Here in Cleveland, the Browns organization is really far too worried about public opinion. Remember how the Broncos organization ignored the DP message boards all offseason, and then the booing at the scrimmage? You have to do that, or you'll never get going in a coherent direction. I don't know if the Mangini plan is the right one, but it seems that Randy Lerner just canceled it before it even had half a season to work. Rumor has it that Lerner is trying to bring in Ernie Accorsi to join Bernie Kosar as a consultant. As respected as Accorsi is, this sounds like Lerner already blew the situation.

Phil Savage, who is still being paid for the next 3 1/2 years, had some interesting comments this past week. He said that the previous regime left this one with two quarterbacks, and that both of them look ruined at this point. The Browns will almost certainly be in the drafting-a-QB business again this coming spring, and that typically signals another full deep dive into rebuilding. While they're at it, they need a right side of the offensive line, two RBs, a WR, and a TE. Then they can turn their attention to the defense, which is currently solid enough to be part of a .500 team.

The team, led by Lerner, needs to definitively figure out what they want to be. They need to then formulate a plan to become that, and start executing the plan. Most importantly, though, they have to try to clearly articulate that plan to their stakeholders, and then prepare to stick to that plan, no matter what Joe in Berea, or Stanislaus in West Park have to say on the radio. You have to build your program, and winning will follow. As we all know, winning is the great deodorant.

More month-end closing activities are ahead for me this week. It seems like just last week I was closing September and complaining here about how busy I am. Now, it returns. The good news is that I will have a full Sunday of game-watching and channel-flipping next weekend, so expect a more-robust set of games which I'll be commenting on. Have a great week, friends, and remember to visit MileHighReport.com every day, for all your Broncos news and analysis.

The Offensive Line Part 2: The Transition

John Morgan — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 17:58:30 -0000

This is the season Seattle lost Steve Hutchinson and the foundation of its offensive line began to crumble. Walter Jones was still among the very best at his position, but he was 32 and would turn 33 less than a week after Seattle was bumped out of the playoffs.

That run was paved in part by Tim Ruskell's first ever pick, Chris Spencer, replacing an effectively retired Robbie Tobeck, and rookie Rob Sims replacing the irreplaceable Hutchinson. When Spencer and Sims helped spring an already washed-up Shaun Alexander for 108 yards and two touchdowns against the sixth-ranked Bears rush defense, all was right, Ruskell was in good graces and the future of the Seattle Seahawks seemed bright.

The line was crumbling though. Jones was approaching old, and the intolerance to pain medication that once stood as a testament to his greatness began to loom as a horrible "what if?" Sims could not replace Hutchinson. Chris Gray was 36. Without that insane left side to protect him, Sean Locklear could no longer be trumped up by contrived stats. Seattle was halfway between the collapse of an all-time great offensive line and a rebuilding effort that couldn't possibly be as successful.

Seattle did not invest much into rebuilding the line in 2006. The draft was a bit top heavy and talent poor. Seattle could have selected Guy Whimper with its Sims pick, Willie Colon, Chris Kuper or Jeromey Clary, but if Sims has maybe not been the most valuable lineman selected in the second day, he has been a good player for the pick and more successful than much of his class.

Seattle could have spent an earlier pick but didn't. It's almost impossible to argue that had Seattle kept spent its first or second round picks on offensive linemen, it would be a better team today. Its first round pick, Kelly Jennings, has busted, but so has Winston Justice, selected 39^th, and neither Deuce Latui, 41^st, nor Daryn Colledge, 47^th, strike me as significantly better players than Sims. It could have made a play at a tackle like Marcus McNeill, Andrew Whitworth, Jeremy Trueblood or Eric Winston, but it believed itself set at tackle, and it seemed to be.

Instead, Ruskell added Tom Ashworth. Ashworth was awful: Another body on the pile of winners and veterans that Ruskell has burdened the team with. But Ashworth was fourth string and therefore as likely to play as Kyle Williams. Sean Locklear had been healthy to that point. Ashworth was behind Jones, Locklear, Ray Willis and even Floyd Womack.

Injuries became a factor. Locklear missed five games. Willis missed 15 and was put on IR. Womack was starting at left guard. Locklear's injury forced Ashworth into action and he played like the fourth string tackle he was. The line did not play well and compared to 2005, it was awful.

The talent Ruskell had added was good. It was young and cheap and seemed promising. The line had declined from a peak it could not possibly reach again, but where it had been expensive, aged, but elite, it was now turning into cheap, young and serviceable.

Matching up with the Chargers

Emmett Smith — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 12:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

Denver Broncos coach Josh McDaniels salutes the crowd after the Broncos defeated the New England Patriots 20-17 in overtime in an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

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Living in San Diego now (up north, in Carlsbad), I've had a classic opportunity to follow and spy on the Chargers. Milling around the town, lounging on the beach, watching the newspapers and the tube analysis, as well as breaking down the games, I had a year-long chance to get a little insight into the team. I wanted to share with you some of the things that I've seen over that time. The Bolts are a walking contradiction, just as they are every year, of late. They're starting slow, they have seemed unmotivated and they're been fighting injuries. They are going to be playing for their season, though. It's a great Monday night matchup, and I'm going to enjoy it.

So saying, here's to 5-0, 6-0, and another Monday Night slugfest!

Denver vs. San Diego

This is probably one of the best opportunities that Denver will have this year. They can take this one on the road and put SD in a deep, deep hole - IF they can control the tempo of this game. I've been living in SD for 15 months now, and spying on the Chargers organization the entire time. I have a lot of respect for them. Taking them lightly will get you beaten, but Denver won't do that. In that fact, can lie the road to victory.

Let's take it one area at a time. I'm going to start where every game starts - with the Trench Warfare (dedicated to firstfan):

Denver O-line vs. the Chargers D-line.

This is one battle that I think Denver can win hands down. Again - I'm not suggesting that it will be easy, just that it's very winnable. Ryan Clady is the best in the game. Ryan Harris is healthier, Casey Wiegmann is doing fine and while I'm not excited about Russ Hochstein, I do think that he's up to the job. I also think that Chris Kuper is better than any fans (even Denver fans) give him credit for. Like most fans, I'm worried about Ben Hamilton, but I do think that he's up to this one if he plays. Perhaps he will do better at center, perhaps he's fading a bit. That's why grooming Seth Olsen makes so much sense.

On the Bolts' side of the ball, it's a different story. Jamal Williams is injured; he's also pushing 35, is gone for the year, and (in my mind) probably won't be back next season. He's most likely done, and SD didn't find anyone to get prepared and polished for this moment. Bad planning, A.J. Smith (Chargers GM). Igor Olshansky was uneven in his play and a problem in the locker room last year, so they don't miss him. However, Ryon Bingham was supposed to replace him and he's on injured reserve. Jacques Cesaire, backing up Bingham, has some injury problems of his own. A local rookie made good in Ogemdi Nwagbuo is trying to handle NT.

Luis Castillo has been uneven but can't be overlooked. Monster Vaughn Martin from Canada isn't ready for the NFL game, but he's probably the Chargers' future at NT, at least as the roster is currently set. The Chargers found a warm body in Alfonso Boone, formerly of the Chiefs. If a Chiefs castoff is your option at DL, you're in seriously deep kimchi (Note - Seoul Food, on 6th Avenue, is/was a very fine restaurant for those who like Korean cuisine). Travis Johnson, a recent Chargers acquisition from the Houston Texans, has had issues with motivation and injury; but he will now be back for Monday's game, as will all players except Center Nick Hardwick. The current plan is for Johnson to take some of the reps at NT which he played for 14 games in 2008 for Houston, although that was in a 4-3 line.

Backing up the front line on the Chargers side are the linebackers. Shawne Merriman is still trying to recover from his knee surgery. He won't be fully back until next season (and he may be working for another team by then), but he will be on the field. The rest of the Chargers LBs are good, but not stars; they brought in Kevin Burnett from Dallas, and he's played well. 1st-round draft pick Larry English will be a very good-to-great one, but not this year. Shaun Phillips, Antwan Applewhite, Stephen Cooper, Tim Dobbins, and Brandon Siler fill out the squad. Jyles Tucker spent some time injured last year, but he showed enough for the Chargers to know that he has serious potential. Even so, they aren't a bad squad, but they seem disorganized and unmotivated. The Broncos have a chance here to paste one on them.

Denver's offensive playmakers vs. Chargers secondary:

The first fact that Denver has to face is that one of the trade-offs to Kyle Orton's incredible home record is that he hasn't been as effective on the road prior to this season. That may not be a concern, since everything this year is different, but it's something to watch for. Orton's numbers are good and becoming much more so.

In fact, Orton has a better QB rating right now than Philip Rivers. He's got a much better TD/INT ratio (Orton - 7/1, Rivers - 6/3 in 1 fewer game). Orton also has an INT percentage of 0.6%; Rivers is 12th in the league at 2.0% - not bad, but not as good. Overall, Rivers is a top-5 QB -- in theory. But right now, his playmakers aren't producing like Orton's and that's affecting his numbers.

The Denver running game is better than the Chargers' front 7. Knowshon Moreno is coming into his own, and he's going to be very good indeed. LaDainian Tomlinson has been out, injured. He should be back, but even so - he's been playing like he's getting older and isn't the same. I love Darren Sproles, but he's not an all-game answer.

The Denver WRs could have a stellar day. The secondary of SD is being coached by Steve Wilks, formerly of Chicago a friend of Ron Rivera's who came over to help Ron out. The Bolts are playing in the secondary like they're being coached by Pee Wee Herman.

I speak periodically with Bolts From The Blue Contributing Editor Brian; he got his start on MHR and he's a well-informed, interesting guy who is open about sharing his knowledge. This is what he had to say about the Chargers' secondary following their loss to the Steelers...

I think it's also time to pull Cromartie for Cason; he is just a train wreck out there. And why Rivera stuck with deep zones when they were eating us alive underneath, I have no clue. I still have a lot of belief in the linebackers, but time will tell. We have almost no sacks; from AJ's perspective he is losing a ton of talent this year and these guys look to be mailing it in sometimes. I guess that is the heart of it; they perform exceptionally in spots and weakly in others, it is strange considering how many could be making a play for a starting job.

I don't have a lot to add. He's pretty much nailed it. Eric Weddle was laid out by the Steelers, Clinton Hart was doing so-so but the Chargers released him Wednesday in a surprise move in order to add DT Ian Scott. Antonio Cromartie looks terrible. Steve Gregory is playing alright, but this isn't a group that inspires confidence. At this point, they claim that they're still not sure who will start in Hart's place, but 6th round pick Kevin Ellison is one option. When you consider that they aren't stopping the run effectively and that the line isn't bringing pressure to stop the pass, this could be a long day for the Chargers defense.

Chargers offense against the Denver defense:

Philip Rivers is always dangerous; in fact, he's the only reason that SD is in the race at all. The Chargers O-line has been porous and despite his relative mobility, Rivers has been sacked 10 times in 4 games. His QB rating is down to 90.2 after a year's rating of 105.5 last year. It's mostly because of the O-line, and I'll get to that in a moment.

But there is a strength that I haven't discussed for the Chargers. Before the season I was talking to Brian, of Bolts from the Blue; he noted that Rivers had a lot of skills and strengths, but that he just hadn't mastered the long ball yet. His deep passes were a weakness that other teams could exploit. That's not at all so anymore. Rivers has completed 16 passes of 20 yards or longer, with 4 surpassing 40 yards; both place him among the NFL's leaders despite having been on bye last week.

Look for Rivers to throw mostly out of the shotgun. After going from the shotgun on 16 of his 39 drops (41%) at Oakland Week 1, Rivers was in the shotgun 29 times in 47 drops (62%) against the Ravens and 27 times in 35 drops (77%) against the Dolphins. Rivers needs the extra time since his line has been so weak. The Broncos secondary has been strong thus far; this could be their toughest challenge yet.

Trench Warfare:

LT Marcus McNeill had two surgeries during the offseason. LG Kris Dielman went to his second Pro Bowl last season - he's very good. They did lose C Nick Hardwick until at least November, and he's been replaced by Scott Mruczkowski. They cut Mike Goff at right guard (who then went on to infect Kansas City) and replaced him by drafting Louis Vasquez, who has fought injuries as a rookie but should play Monday. Jerome Clary is uneven at right tackle, and Elvis Dumervil may snack on him as the game wears on. In fact, I do not believe that the Chargers can stand up to our DL over the course of a full game. That is probably our ace in the hole. Like All QBs, Rivers can get frustrated if he's harassed.

Expect the Chargers to feature their TEs and use more max protection Monday. Antonio Gates is still strong and effective, and the Chargers have two young talents in Brandon Manumaleuna and Kris Wilson who are perfect for their roles. Both are good blockers, can run routes, go in motion, and confound opposing defensive coordinators. I see the tight ends as one of the Chargers' biggest strengths.

On the other side of the ball is a Denver group that doesn't have a single well-known household name, but they play like unbridled fury. Ronald Fields and Marcus Thomas are splitting time at NT, and both look good. The starting ends have been surprising players - Ryan McBean (formerly of the Steelers practice squad) and Kenny Peterson, and they are rotated with Vonnie Holliday. Le Kevin Smith isn't back from his knee injury fully, but he is a solid backup. The front seven is rounded out with a big group of linebackers. Elvis 'Doom' Dumervil and Mario Haggan are backed by Darrell Reid and Robert Ayers. At ILB, D.J. Williams and Andra Davis are leading the team in tackles. This isn't an even contest - the Broncos have the advantage across the board. I expect them to notch a few sacks on Rivers. If they can harass him into mistakes, this could turn ugly for the Bolts.

Rushing to Victory

I believe that the Chargers are in trouble here. Tomlinson has already been injured. He's dangerous if he's healthy this Monday, as is predicted, but he's not the player he once was. Like the team overall, I don't recommend underestimating LDT, but he can be stopped, especially behind that line. The Chargers have a potent weapon in Darren Sproles on kickoffs and in relief of LDT. Michael Bennett is also an option. They Chargers surprised me by cutting Gartrell Johnson, who only had one good game in preseason but was a 4th round pick: I believe that admits indicates sloppy drafting.They can hurt Denver here, but the O-line has to step up for that to happen.

On the other hand, Knowshon Moreno is coming into his own and is running behind a very good Denver O-line, which is bad news for the rest of the league. My only concerns with Knowshon were that he might be a little light for the league - he's put in the time in the weight room to counteract that and will continue to get tougher, and that I honestly didn't know if he was the kind of player that Bobby Turner wanted. I wasn't convinced that he wasn't, just interested to see what Denver thought. Could he pick up and play within the system? The answer to both questions is a resounding "Yes". Correll Buckhalter may be back, which would make the game easier. I'm disappointed in Peyton Hillis so far, and LaMont Jordan is a good back for running out the clock and a very good receiver, but his minutes will be limited. The Broncos are near the top of the league in rushing with 139 yards per game and have a nice average of 4.6 YPA. They will be hard to stop and the Chargers haven't been great at stopping the run.

Slow Starts:

What is it with the slow starts in San Diego? Ever since Norv Turner came to town, the trend has been to stink up the beginning of the year and to firm up later. With the Broncos coming into the game undefeated, that just won't cut it in the AFC West. The Bolts need to wake up NOW if they are to have any chance at all in the division, much less in the playoffs.

I did a little checking, and it seems that historically the Chargers have had recurring issues in this regard. In fact, they are the only team since 1970 to make the playoffs after a 0-4 start, having managed that in 1992 (Final regular season record, 11-5 that year). At 2-2, they aren't in that kind of trouble, but unless they pull themselves together, they soon will be.

That's the big potential trap here - the Chargers have had two weeks to game-plan, which puts them almost even with an 8-day Josh McDaniels plan. They are at home, they are coming off a bye week, and they are fighting for the season. A loss at this point could end their Super Bowl aspirations for the year. They may be a very tough team on Monday night; but they are still, without question, vulnerable. Unless they can really put a lot of points on the board early, the Denver defense will probably shut them down in the second half.

A last point on SD:

I've been hearing from some intelligent Chargers fans that there "wasn't anyone out there who could have an impact at NT (and a few other positions)". I've had to bite my tongue before casually asking if they'd looked at Ron Fields lately. The fact is, there were good players at many of the positions that SD now needs sitting out there this past offseason. You can get a good look at most of them on the Broncos roster next Monday night. Blame this one firmly on A.J. Smith, who was too smart for his own good this time.

With all of these factors in mind, this has the makings of another great game. SD will be highly motivated - they're at home, the numbers favor them becuase they're coming off a bye at home and they know that their season may well rest on this game. That and their offense (other than the line) are concerns.

The Broncos, on the other hand, will be prepared.They will be well aware of the dangers. They will be recipients of the McDaniels/Nolan game plans. We have the same offense that has scored when ever it had to and which is looking to break the habit of starting slowly. They can - they know each other better each week. SD isn't, frankly, as good as New England. Could we drop emotionally. Honestly, not on Monday Night Football. I see that as a small benefit - our guys are given a chance to prove, on national and international TV, who they are.

They will. Broncos over the Bolts, 27-24. Rivers has a good night, Doom gets a couple of sacks and Orton continues to do his job and do it well. How's that for playing it safe?

Go Broncos!

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 12:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

2 months ago: Denver Broncos coach Josh McDaniels salutes the crowd after the Broncos defeated the New England Patriots 20-17 in overtime in an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Is anybody else feeling like they could get used to feeling like this on a Tuesday? It's great to be 5-0, isn't it? Maybe Mark Kiszla is right, and we should all join him in welcoming Kyle Orton to Denver, since MHR is clearly bringing up the rear, there. Y'all know how skeptical I have been. Despite our ongoing skepticism, and community-wide propensity for all things negative, we press on. Ready..... BEGIN!!!!

1. Speaking of my skepticism, I was pretty high on this team, heading into the first game.

This is an 11-5 football team, and it's one that is only going to improve as it adds more quality talent in the next few years. I put my money where my mouth is too, donating $11 to the Susan G. Komen Race For The Cure, on John Bena's wife's behalf. Please do the same thing, if you can, by donating $1 for every win you think the Broncos will get this season. Things have to break right for that to happen, sure, but I think they will. Forget last season, this is a totally different thing.

Well, that caused a stir. John Bena took a beating on Twitter about it, and even my brother Chris thought I was about 4 games too generous. At this point, I am frankly wondering if I shorted the Susan G Komen outfit by a buck or two. One mea culpa though.

By the way, the Broncos five losses are to the Patriots, Giants, and Raiders at home, and the Chargers and Eagles on the road. I know a lot of people will groan at the thought of losing to Oakland at home, but let's face it, the Broncos annually lose a game they have no business losing, and I had a feeling that that would be the one. I think they can beat Baltimore and Pittsburgh, because they protect the QB, and will be strong defensively against the run. It's about matchups, in those cases. Really, I believe that the Broncos can beat any team on their schedule if they execute, and consistently do the things you need to do to win football games.

I had the Broncos going to 4-0, (in case anybody claims nobody did), before losing both (Sunday) to the Patriots and next Monday night to the Chargers. They beat the Patriots, and I am pretty sure they'll beat the Chargers too, to move to 6-0. I also don't think there is any way they lose to the Raiders, with the consistent preparation and focus they've shown, and Oakland's extreme awfulness. So, even the most optimistic reasonable guy you know may have been underselling this team.

I am not much of a stats guy, but are you ready for an unbelievable one? In five weeks, the Broncos have made zero personnel moves. For all you hear about how much "turmoil" surrounded this team in the offseason, there has been absolutely none in the regular season. Of course, having had no major injuries helps, but it's really indicative of the quality of the team's personnel plan. There was no area where the staff thought incorrectly that the personnel would be good enough. It's good enough everywhere.

There is a lot of reason to really like this team. When the score was 10-0 in the first quarter, my father (Ed) called me, like he does when things aren't going that well for the Broncos. This is the conversation, practically word-for-word.

Ed: What's going on with your boys?

Ted: (A little annoyed.) Nothing, they had a good drive, but missed a field goal, and then they fumbled. Then they held the Patriots to a field goal despite really favorable field position. I'm not worried about it yet. These things happen.

Ed: I don't know...

Ted: This team has shown an ability to be resilient, and make adjustments. I think they'll hang in there, and be okay. (More annoyed, because the commercial was ending, and the game was restarting.) They just (bleeped) up a couple times, it's not the end of the world.

Ed: We'll see....

Ted: Yes, we will. I have to go, so I can pay attention.

Ed: Okay, when you write your analysis, you should mention that your expert father thinks they played like (bleep) because of those ugly uniforms.

Like me, my father is a former United States sailor (a Chief Nuke Machinist Mate), and we tend to employ some sailors' vocabulary when we speak. (In the interest of authenticity, I thought everybody should know that.)

I think back to the last few years, and there is a striking difference with this team. I think of 2005, and the Broncos hardly ever trailed in that season. Jake Plummer was made to play low-risk football, the defense was solid, and the Broncos ran the ball very well. If the plan was executed, the Broncos were going to win. Once it wasn't, in the AFC Championship Game, there was no coming back.

Between 2006-2008, the team was very mistake-prone, on both offense and defense (after the first 6 games of 2006). Generally, you'd have the feeling that if a player or unit made a mistake, that a long day of repeat mistakes would be sure to follow. Think of all the times Jay Cutler played the team out of games, or the defense took a holiday from tackling (or both happened in the same game, like the early season Chiefs game last season). There was always a puncher's chance, but you felt like every mistake was the killer.

I have a tremendous amount of faith in this team's ability to overcome mistakes. In the short amount of time they've been together, I've seen them do it a lot of times. It's not like they're making a lot of mistakes, but they show the ability to settle down and re-focus, no matter what happens. The 2008 Broncos would have gotten blown out today, no question about it. This team hangs in there, gets back to playing solid football, and gets in position to win in the end. It happened against Cincinnati, it happened against Dallas, and it happened again today. (Of course, there never was one second where the Browns or Raiders had an apparent chance, so there was no particular need to hang in there in those games.)

Check out this tweet from Darrell Reid, from Sunday night:

@Footz95: Bronco Fans Please 4Give Me 4 My Penalty That Almost Cost Us The Game. Luckily Its A Team Sport And My Teammates Overcame That Play. Thank U

That's pure class and accountability, and it's emblematic of this team. There was nothing about how the penalty was kind of ticky-tack, even if it was. He knows the rules, he ran into the guy's leg, and he is accountable for his mistake.

It's a gift to be able to feel like this, and I think only probably Patriots, Steelers, and Colts fans have been able to do so consistently, in recent memory. I think Giants and Saints fans probably can right now. Somehow, our team is going to keep focused, and find a way to be in the game until the final gun. What a great new Broncos fan reality.

2. Information From My Eyes, Patriots at Broncos:

a. The WRs for the Broncos did great work all game on Sunday. They ran a ton of hitches, and really got out of their breaks well on them. They also really caught the ball.

b. Andra Davis and D.J. Williams both missed clean sacks on Tom Brady, on delayed blitzes. It sure would have been nice to have those sacks, at the time.

c. I thought the use of Russ Hochstein as a FB was a nice touch a few times. It's been hit or miss this season, and it hit Sunday.

d. Both Brandon Marshall TDs were emblematic of his improvement as an all-around player. He made plays with his physicality, which he hadn't ever fully harnessed in past years. There was no sideways running Sunday, just good routes and power.

e. That Ben Watson TD was evidently a mistake by D.J. Williams, who from the looks of the rest of the scheme, and Wesley Woodyard's reaction, should have stayed in zone coverage, instead of following the underneath crosser.

f. Maybe Kyle Orton was so fantastic because he read Mark Kiszla's column before the game. Feeling like "one of us" has to go a long way, right?

g. That was a joke, of course, but Orton really did look as good as I have ever seen him. His feet were calm, active, and precise, his decisions were quick and correct, and his throws were consistently on the money. He looked like Tom Brady looks on a good day, and that's no overstatement.

h. I want to see a QB sneak on a short-yardage play one of these days. I am tired of seeing these handoff plays get blown up by quick penetration, usually over Ben Hamilton.

i. WOW, did Josh McDaniels ever flame-spray Mike Priefer and Keith Burns over that Darrell Reid penalty. He had a point. There was no particular need to be halfway rushing that punt, in that situation. Honestly, I am a believer in not trying to block a punt at all, unless there's 6 or more yards to go. That mitigates the risk of running into the kicker.

j. If you remember the second-down play in the 4th quarter, with about 10 minutes to go, where Brady threw deep and the ball was broken up by Brian Dawkins, the real play was made by D.J.Williams, in covering Wes Welker one-on-one. Brady clearly wanted to go there, and it was blanketed. On the next play, Brady did throw to Welker, and Champ Bailey had great coverage. The Broncos did a great job taking Welker away in the second half.

k. Everybody knows I wasn't that high on the Knowshon Moreno pick when it was made, but I have come to really love this player. He is going to be a superstar for years to come. I especially appreciate his skill at picking up the blitz, which is rare for a rookie.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games:

a. I had the Bengals-Ravens game on my fixed screen Sunday, for the duration. The key observation from that game is that I had it slightly wrong a couple weeks ago, when I said that the Ravens were without any glaring weaknesses. Their cornerbacks are below average, and they can be killed outside the numbers. Old friend Domonique Foxworth is a good guy, but an average-at-best player. Fabian Washington isn't even as good as that. Particularly if you can block the Ravens' pressure packages, there is a lot of opportunity for success.

b. It is, however, best to stay out of the middle of the field, with any kind of risky throws. Ed Reed is as great as ever, and we all know about Ray Lewis. Reed made a couple big plays Sunday, stripping Chad Ochocinco on a long gainer before the first half ended, and then also returning an interception for a TD later. The Bengals dominated this game, and Reed and Ray Rice were the Ravens' only real positives, and managed to keep the Ravens in it.

c. Matt Cassel says he wants to find the right "anecdote" to losing. The Chiefs ought to start by drafting a lot more speed, because they're the slowest team in the NFL, ahead of their opponent Sunday, Dallas. The Chiefs are going to have another very high draft pick this year, because they are really horrible. If I were Scott Pioli, I would do everything possible to get below the Top 10, because a third straight very high pick, along with Cassel's contract, is going to really mess up their salary structure, a la Oakland. I would give a top pick away, straight-up, for the 12th pick, in their situation. Bill Polian had it right when he said that you don't get good by picking high in the draft every year. Unless you're taking a can't-miss QB, like Peyton Manning, nobody is worth the money you have to pay out.

d. Speaking of the Chiefs, this has gone mostly under the radar, but they're not playing Derrick Johnson, their best linebacker. He was their best defensive player in 2008, and now he's frozen out for some undisclosed reason. If I were a 40-front team, I'd be calling the Chiefs before the trade deadline next week. I bet he could be had for a 5th-rounder.

e. Have you ever seen that show, Intervention, on A&E? I know I have a pretty male-heavy readership, and it's mostly targeted toward a female demographic, so I ask, rather than assume. Anyway, it's not what I would call uplifting television. There's always some really troubled person, with drugs, or gambling, or compulsive shopping, or whatever. Their family loves them, and wants to help get them on the straight and narrow, but addiction is really hard (my 3-year anniversary of quitting smoking is next Monday, so trust me, I have an idea about addiction).

Anyway, the Jaguars remind me of an addict who is trying to get clean, and tries hard, and does well for a while, and then has a staggering, messy relapse. Jacksonville's addiction is to playing undisciplined and stupid football. The last two weeks, against Houston and Tennessee, the Jags had their act together. Sunday, against Seattle, they relapsed, and got completely embarassed. Rashean Mathis, a good CB, had a horrid game, and got out of position repeatedly. I think Jack Del Rio's days have to be numbered, because his program just isn't getting the team to where they need to be. I'm not picking them in any more games this year, either, unless it's against an obviously terrible team. Sometimes, even though you may love the addict, they won't let themselves be helped, and you have to cut them off.

f. The 49ers are not addicted to undisciplined football, but they sure played like the Jaguars West on Sunday. Watching the Short Cut, I really feel like they lost their composure after Roddy White's 90-yard TD in the second quarter. Nate Clements got beat on that play, and had a tough game overall. The defense was physical, and maintained their run lanes, but didn't tackle well, at all. I expect that Mike Singletary will re-focus his team, and they'll show better in their next game, after their bye. Since they're clearly not built to play from behind, they need to establish early leads.

g. A lot was made of Dre' Bly's idiotic celebration Sunday, but Donnie Avery deserves some scorn too, for dancing after a TD catch, when it made the score 31-10 Vikings, with 6 minutes to go. That's just clown-like. Hand the ball to the Field Judge, and get back to your sideline.

h. Matt Schaub threw a noodle-armed out route Sunday, which Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie took back for the game-winning TD. Even after that, Schaub drove the team the length of the field, before the Cardinals held them on 4th and goal from the 1. The problem with being a zone-blocking team, as we've seen, is that you tend to struggle in short yardage situations, and the Texans really struggle with them.

i. I got called "ignorant" once by our dear friend/Colts blogger BigBlueShoe for saying that Anthony Gonzalez was a below-average starter. I considered it an honor, because I am happy to disagree with anybody. (Evaluation is a function of what I see, not what anybody thinks they know, and by extension, that they think I should "know.") In any case, Gonzalez, who is from 3 towns west of where I live, is going to stuggle to get on the field when he gets healthy. Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon have done fantastic work this season, and they're both better players than Gonzalez. Collie is smooth in his routes, and fundamentally sound, and Garcon is fast and fluid. Gonzalez struggles to get off press coverage, and as Mike Shanahan once said, if you can't get off press coverage, you'll be selling cars before too long.

j. The Steelers defense looks extremely beatable lately, especially if you can pass protect. The Lions did a lot of good stuff offensively Sunday, and lost only because they couldn't contain James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley. Trust me, they're not a terrible team team this season.

k. Josh Johnson looked like an NFL starting QB on Sunday, which is an accomplishment, for your second career start, against a defense like Philadelphia's. His stats were pedestrian (26-50, 240 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT with 5 carries for 40 yards), but he passed the eye test. His throws were mostly accurate and decisive, and he was victimized by quite a few drops, at least 6 or 7.

l. I haven't gotten a great look at Jason Peters yet this regular season, and I have been wanting to. Sunday's game didn't show me much, because Gaines Adams just looks clueless on the field. LDE Jimmy Wilkerson got 3 sacks for the Buccaneers, and lazy analysis would lead me to criticize RT Winston Justice, who I am typically not a big fan of. Thing is, I looked at the plays, and none were particularly bad plays by Justice. One was an overload, where the RG picked up Wilkerson, and on the other two, Donovan McNabb rolled into a decently-blocked Wilkerson.

m. ST&NO favorite Channing Crowder had a fantastic game on Monday Night, and really backed up his smack talk from the spring with Rex Ryan. Another ST&NO favorite, Sean Smith, did not have a particularly great game. He struggled a little with Braylon Edwards, and while he didn't embarass himself, he has looked a lot better in other games. He was still the best CB the Dolphins had, as Vontae Davis and Will Allen both struggled worse.

n. I called this just last Tuesday with Edwards. He got out of Cleveland, and he's going to flourish in New York. He always thought of Cleveland as a non-cosmopolitan place, even to a greater extent than what is really true. (It's medium in its cosmopolitan-ness; well behind the major cities, but well ahead of a place like Jacksonville.) Edwards also felt like Ohio fans secretly hated him because he is a Michigan guy. The enmity between OSU and Michigan people is pretty real, for Big 10 country anyway, but Clevelanders are almost universally Browns fans before they're OSU fans. It's an NFL town, first, no question about it. If Edwards did well for the Browns, he'd have gotten plenty of love here.

My read on Edwards' personality, from living in the same town, is that the fact that he comes from a fairly affluent, two-parent, suburban background works against his ability to be a great player. He knows he has options outside of football. Poor kids need football, and many dedicate themselves fully to it, but I don't think Edwards has ever felt like he needs it. (For an example, there's the famous story of him asking Will Demps how to get into modeling and acting, between plays, during a game with the Texans).

I expect that Edwards will be very good for the Jets, and get himself a good contract extension after this season. New York is the town he wants to be in, and at his best, he can be like Tiki Barber, a guy who is interested in a lot of other stuff, but finally focuses pretty well on football, and has some good years under some tough coaching. Just don't be the person who believes the nonsense about him being a bad player, because he is not one.

n. The Dolphins offensive line is really one-dimensional, because their Tackles, Jake Long and Vernon Carey, severely lack foot quickness. Both guys can really move defenders off the ball in the running game, though. I am a big fan of Justin Smiley at LG; he's a mauler. The Dolphins do well in their wildcat stuff, but I think they should play more with their QB under center, to generate opportunities in the play-action game. It's the only way their QB will ever be able to consistently take a very deep dropback, unless they want to max-protect with a limited pattern.

o. Wow.... two successful fake punts in one first half by the Jets. I don't know if I have ever seen that before. Brad Smith was almost stopped on the second one, but he managed to get away from the tackle.

p. Chad Henne has looked much better than I thought he could play the last two weeks, but I am not sold on some things. For one thing, since when do QBs have lousy, jail-house looking tattoos, or any tattoos at all? It's like when an enlisted guy in the military becomes an officer, and suddenly looks a little different, sporting a bunch of ink. (My buddy who is getting married in Dallas in about 2 weeks is actually one of these.) Anyway, it's weird to see a QB with that going on. As a player, he looked really good, though.

q. Ted Ginn put a pretty humbling move on Darrelle Revis in the 4th quarter Monday Night. When you hear scouts talk about suddenness, Ginn is not a guy who really has it, as opposed to somebody like Percy Harvin, who does. Ginn does, however, have world-class speed once he gets going, and he ran by the outstanding Revis for a go-ahead TD.

r. I usually ignore MNF while I write the bulk of ST&NO on Monday nights, but this Dolphins-Jets game was terrific. Both of these teams are playoff-caliber teams, and only one of them will probably make it.

s. The Packers had a bye week, and signed Mark Tauscher, which was smart. I think he is below-average, (and so is Chad Clifton), but they are a damnsight better than Daryn Colledge and Allen Barbre. If Aaron Rodgers can get sacked only 3-4 times per game, as opposed to 8-9, the Packers would have a better chance to beat good teams. Rodgers does tend to hold the ball too long at times, and I am sure the Packers are working with him on that, as well.

t. There were a lot of lousy games this weekend, which weren't particularly relevant to anything. I didn't bother with them. (That means you, Buffalo-Cleveland and Washington-Carolina.)

4. Between The Lines - Patriots at Broncos

a. The Patriots pass-protected very well in this game, much better than I expected them to. Matt Light and Nick Kaczur really held their own against Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers, and others. The Broncos mostly tried to play coverage, and generally didn't blitz a lot, but the Patriots handled their 3- and 4-man rushes virtually every time. Once Light was injured, and replaced by Sebastian Vollmer, I felt like the Patriots expressly didn't want to have him singled up on anybody, and they got more conservative with their protection calls. Of course, on the key play where Vonnie Holliday sacked and stripped Brady, and Dumervil recovered, that was only a 4-man rush, and Vollmer was the victim. The Patriots won this battle on volume, but he Broncos got the biggest play.

b. The Broncos also were outstanding in protection. Orton was never significantly pressured during the game, and the two sacks he took were both coverage sacks, delivered by LBs Rob Ninkovich and Tully Banta-Cain. Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris were outstanding as usual. Although Clady did have Banta-Cain on his sack, it's hard to call the play Ryan's fault. Pressure up the middle forced Orton to step backwards, into the area where Clady had ridden Banta-Cain. Sometimes you take a hit for doing your job right. The interior was strong in protection too, especially Chris Kuper. He does a great job anchoring against power rushers. The Broncos were terrific in this area, and won it going away.

c. The Patriots seemed to want to run the ball at Ryan McBean and Mario Haggan, and had a bit of success at it early with Sammy Morris. After that, they seemed to get away from that plan, only running much from shotgun looks. The Broncos defensive line was up to the task, consistently holding the line of scrimmage, as they have in all five games. Noteworthy performances were turned in by Ronald Fields, Le Kevin Smith, and Kenny Peterson, in addition to McBean. These big guys just continue to hold up. Logan Mankins was tough for the Patriots, and Dan Koppen was steady and crafty. Kaczur had a couple nice early blocks on the opening possession too. This battle was pretty even, in the final analysis.

d. Vince Wilfork was the best all-around player on the field on Sunday, and he couldn't be blocked. If the Patriots don't pay him, I'll be shocked, but there are actually rumblings that they may not. The rest of the Patriots defensive line got pushed around in the running game. The Broncos blockers were terrific in opening up holes for Knowshon Moreno and LaMont Jordan. Clady, Harris, and Kuper were especially noteworthy for their efforts in the running game. Wilfork did make a key stop on third-and-short, and blew up Hamilton on the play. Moreno's 4.2 yard average was a lot better than teams usually get from the Patriots. This is a win for the Broncos.

e. Remember a year ago, when the Patriots physically dominated the Broncos on both lines? That did not happen Sunday. The matchup was pretty even, with a slight edge going to the Broncos. This was very important to the final outcome of the game, as always.

(I am scrapping the BTL feature for another game. I am pretty overloaded lately, and I need to save the 90 minutes per week. It seemed like the best place to cut from. Sorry for anybody who will miss it.)

5. Weird comment from Pat Kirwan on NFL.com:

5. Things I didn't like

When the visiting Patriots lost the coin toss in overtime and the Broncos drove the field and kicked a winning field goal, it left me wanting more than that to decide a winner. Wouldn't it have been great if, after Denver's field goal, Tom Brady had one drive to score a touchdown?

Is Kirwan saying that Brady should get even more special treatment, because he's Brady, or is he saying that the NFL should allow both teams to get the ball at least once in overtime, as a rule for all teams? I typically like Kirwan's work, but this has me pretty confused.

And for the record, I don't think it would have been great if Brady had one drive to score a touchdown. To me, moving down the field after winning the toss, and kicking a winning FG is legitimate. I also think the Broncos play-calling would have been a bit different, once Knowshon Moreno got them inside the 30, if they felt like they really needed to play for a TD.

6. Big up Lindsay Jones of the Denver Post, for reminding us, via Twitter, of somebody who hasn't come forth with their mea culpa yet. I'm looking at you, Rick Reilly, purveyor of puff pieces.

Actually, Reilly's words were more mean-spirited than anybody's, so he really owes Josh McDaniels an apology.

@DenverBroncos : Deadspin compiles all the not-so-nice things Rick Reilly wrote about McDaniels last spring. Pretty interesting. http://deadspin.com/5379838/delighting-in-rick-reillys-massively-wrong-broncos-predictions

I don't normally read Deadspin, but nice work by Tommy Creggs here. Some interesting reminders:

Reilly on April 3rd: "And none of it would've happened without McDaniels' ham-handed style and his Macy's-balloon ego. I have a buddy who honestly believes McDaniels thinks this is fantasy football; that Pat Bowlen gave him a whole team to play with and screw over in his own image and what the hell, if his moves don't work out, his league has a special "mulligan" rule and he can start over. Only there's no "oops" rule in the NFL. Years from now, the Cutler Catastrophe will go down as the dumbest thing in Boy Blunder's very short coaching career. By then, perhaps he will be your waiter at Olive Garden."

That was right after the Cutler trade. Nice, huh? Try this one out:

Reilly on April 29th: "To repeat: Boy Blunder used a [first-round pick] to take a second. And if the Broncos are going to be as lame as I think they're going to be-4-12 perhaps-that first-round pick will be very high. McDaniels is the worst combination of things: Terribly naïve and doubly confident. Bronco fans, you're screwed."

And one more pearl;

Reilly on September 29th: "You can't just bolt your team because you think it's going to suck. (Which the Broncos are. There is no debating that. They are going to lose more than France. Just because you worked under Bill Belichick and you wear your sweatshirt like Bill Belichick does not mean you are Bill Belichick.)"

I would have been glad to debate Reilly on September 29th, or any other day. And if Josh McDaniels was my waiter at Olive Garden, I'd tip him pretty well, because I tip well, and because I bet the service would be outstanding.

I mean, like they say on ESPN, C'mon Man! This drivel was worse than what came from any of the serious-ish reporters, right? Your garden-variety John Clayton, Peter King, or Don Banks were smug and disconnected from reality, but it wasn't personal. With Reilly, this was clearly PERSONAL. Where are you at, Rick? Being a Denver guy, I suspect you'll see this, or at least hear about it, from somebody who does. Ted Bartlett from MileHighReport.com wants to know where you're at with this today, and is directly, publicly asking, on behalf of the thousands who realize how wrong you were, and think we have a great Head Coach.

Hell, if I find out that Chad Henne's tattoo is actually beautifully and tastefully done, and I had it all wrong, you can bet that I'll man up to it publicly. Same goes for anything I ever say, in all seriousness. Maybe accountability to readers is a blogger thing, I don't know.

7. Retired for John Elway

8. So, there's a hellaciously stupid line of thought that's circulating throughout the punditry (as always, meant negatively.) It seems that there are two kinds of people: those who dichotomize, and those who don't. The punditry tends to dichotomize, and there are two kinds of coaches right now. Hot Coordinators (including some retreads like Mike Nolan, Gregg Williams, and Mike Mularkey), and Super Bowl Winning Retreads. And lemme tell you, nobody wants a Retread. Why not? Because they're Retreads, stupid!

My favorite contrarian Andrew Perloff tells us so in his crack column Against The Grain: ("A weekly NFL column that heads in the opposite direction of your average pro football analysis." Just in case you were wondering....)

3. The NFL information men are hot on the trail of finding out where former Super Bowl-winning coaches like Mike Shanahan, Mike Holmgren and Bill Cowher will end up. But shouldn't we be asking ourselves if those coaches are the right hires for franchises like Washington, Dallas and Carolina? A retread coach with a ring is still just a retread. Duplicating that kind of success is still a longshot in the NFL. Some of the organization problems within those teams would cause just as big a headache for a proven winner.

Perloff has a point about the organization problems, but calling somebody a retread, and assuming that they suddenly can't coach is asinine. Analysts who don't know how to analyze always look for correlation, and assume causation, where there often is none.

Some teams, like the Redskins and Cowboys, will almost certainly make big-splash hires. Some, like the Bills and Jaguars, will be cost conscious, and probably hire a coordinator. Some, like the Panthers, could go either way. You can believe that whatever is deemed to be the trend du jour, (probably hiring coordinators), the other path will be criticized. Such is life with the dichotomizing punditry.

9. Another fun Ted Bartlett prognostication from the preseason:

The Broncos are going to have the best defense in the AFC West.

I guess I am just hot this year. :)

That's all I have for this week. Have a great Tuesday, and beyond, and we'll see you Saturday for Lighting Up The Scoreboard, even as I will be at Notre Dame this weekend for their game against USC. It will be my first time seeing Touchdown Jesus, so we'll see what that does for me as a guy who grew up Catholic. Maybe I will tweet from the game. Follow me at @TedBartlett905. Thanks for reading, and go Broncos!!!

Denver Broncos Thoughts and Musings - Cowboys Week

Emmett Smith — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 11:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

2 months ago: Denver Broncos defensive end Robert Ayers, left, brings down Oakland Raiders running back Michael Bush during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009.(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

Browse more photos »

Welcome to 3-0, Denver! The team that destroyed the raiders on the road will still not get as much respect until they beat a few of the teams in the upcoming stretch. I'm not worried about that happening. We have had a series of things in our favor over the other squads that we've taken been able to use. Those advantages have involved personnel matchups, coaching matchups, scheme, attitude and execution. In today's effort, I'm going to start with the biggest among them.

Carving Them Up

The Broncos had a 12th man on the field all game against the raiders, and it was perfectly legal. It was Josh McDaniels. Last year, he laid 49 points on the raiders when he was with New England. This year, he destroyed both their offense and defense. Credit Mike Nolan on defense, but the offensive side was all Josh McDaniels.

One of the tricks was simple - the raiders don't make accommodations, and in today's NFL, that's not going to get you very far. They play the defense that they always play, essentially with 4 rushers, man-to-man coverage on the receivers and 5 players in support of whatever they see, pass or rush. They are, in this respect, the antithesis of the Amoeba-based Broncos. The Broncos made adjustments and conquered. If this was a contest between the old and the new, it was the horse and buggy against the modern hybrid. Their horse didn't make it out of the stable. The Broncos, however, did.

One of the simple techniques was to run underneath and to use crossing routes to defeat the coverage. Time after time, Denver's receivers came open. Brandon Marshall consistently got a matchup underneath Kirk Morrison, which is going to go in Denver's favor 9 of 10 times. Ryan Clady and Company frustrated the defensive line of the raiders, not giving up a sack and opening huge lanes for the running game. Rumors that Kyle Orton was back there with time to make espresso are in error - it was actually cappuccino, and he shared it with the receiving corps. As I'll discuss later, the O-line was nearly faultless.

This is a simple example of a more far-reaching principle. The Broncos are headed by one of the finest minds in offensive strategy - again. This time, it's the modern offensive strategy. Even Mike Shanahan has commented on all the great things that he finally has time to study now that he's 'retired'. The game is constantly changing. Coach McDaniels is at the tip of the spear, so to speak - an innovator as well as a student of the history of the game. This is the man who was the coordinator and called the plays for the most prolific offense in NFL history. That's not a small thing.

But this is also a man who got his start in the NFL on the defensive side. He was successful on offense in great part because he understood defenses and designed strategies to defeat them. He now has Mike Nolan, designing and carrying out the best defense he can and Brian Xanders, constantly looking for players to make the team stronger and managing the contractual side. Xanders is an often-missed piece of this puzzle. Those members who are currently concerned with how the team will pay for its players in a possibly uncapped year aren't aware of how Xanders is already constantly working on the puzzle. I'm looking forward to watching his efforts play out.

I'll talk more about this later, but those who question if our offense is up to the Cowboys aren't really thinking of how much Josh McDaniels is aware of the team's strengths and weaknesses. At 6:00 of the third quarter Monday night, the Cowboys had scored exactly 3 points against a Carolina team that in no way reflects the performances of last season. Dallas got their final touchdown on a pick-6 INT, or they would have been vulnerable to losing over a single score - while at home and playing against a team that is now 0-3 and seems to be self-destructing. This isn't a juggernaut bearing down on Denver. McDaniels was watching the game and he was seeing the coaches' film the next day. I'm not concerned.

When I was watching the preseason, I listened to a lot of folks who were deeply concerned when we didn't click immediately on offense. After a single half of the first game, there was a resurgence of the 'Fire Orton' contingent. McDaniels wasn't as smart as he thought he was, right? Was he? But after three games in which we've scored 62 points and given up 16, fans should know that this is a team that, for a change, you can trust. The pieces are there, the coaching is there, and the level of play is something that is currently new to this fair city. It's been a long time. Perhaps that's why it's hard to see at times. We still see through the eyes of the last few years.

Cincinnati is better by far than folks thought. We held them scoreless for how long, and in their home stadium? Our offense hadn't started to click; but since then, each week we get better with 27 and 23 points in the past two games, respectively. In fairness to this team, I think that you have to look at both where the defense is and where the offense is going. That's normal, with a new scheme and many new players. We do better each week. Last week, our rushing attack fully came of age. The week before, we gained a total of 449 yards and took apart a team that wasn't close to as good as us. This week we embarrassed a division rival who had defeated Kansas City in KC. I'm starting to look at each new game like it's Christmas, wondering what will be our present this week. I look forward to seeing what we'll open up on the Cowboys.

Hanging Them Out to Dry

During Week 1 of this season, Kyle Orton had a couple of passes that the fans wanted him to take back. Coming across the middle against Cincinnati, two pass plays resulted in receivers - first Eddie Royal and then Brandon Marshall - getting clocked by Rey Maualuga. There were groans and cries that he stank, that he would get our receivers killed. Was that the case, or was Orton doing his job and the receivers living with theirs? There isn't a clear answer, but here are some perspectives that may help you understand what happened.

After that game, I went to Professor Hoosierteacher to ask him about the issue. Was Orton misguided in throwing those passes? Did he really hang those players out to dry? Here is the response he was kind enough to tender:

"You raise a good point about the QB making the call on a completed pass versus laying out the receiver. Here's my view...

The QB's only job is to get the ball downfield. Sure, if he can protect his receivers, that's a bonus. But I think that a QB has enough to deal with, and probably can't see everything.

In the case of floating a lob pass (when a bullet might have been better), it is probably fair to blame the QB. But in the case where a LB is charging the WR from the side, it is just too hard to second guess the QB. Orton may have led a receiver or two into a LB, but like I write in an earlier e-mail, no QB will do that on purpose, so it is fair to assume he didn't see the threat. And even if he did, he's paid to move the ball down the field, and the receiver is being paid to sacrifice his body to an extent.

I may be biased as a coach (I was never a receiver or a QB), and may be ignorant since I never coached an offense or an entire team. But that's how I imagine the thinking goes."

That put things is a slightly different light for me. If you watch both plays that most folks objected to, in each Maualuga is on the weakside, screened from Orton's view by the scrum at the O-line. Rey moves perfectly and hits like a grizzly, but that's the nature of the beast, so to speak. Going over the middle in the short zone takes a certain mentality. You've potentially got safeties, LBs and corners available to hit you, and frequently, it's a group-slam situation. Some players never master what it takes. Others take a certain fierce joy in it, reveling in the competition and anxious to prove that they can take the hits and bounce up.

In both of these cases, the pass was just high enough to get over the LOS, fast, fairly well thrown. Rey seems to have an innate sense of timing about this play and a lot of receivers will rue that fact, but it isn't necessarily Orton's fault. He has a half second, no more, to see the receiver, chose his read and get the ball moving. Football is, by its nature, a very tough sport and this is a great example of that fact.

Could Orton do better? Sure, and from the past two games, he already does. I wouldn't suggest that he did the right thing. I'm suggesting only that he is paid to complete passes and that's what he did. They weren't lobs. It wasn't a high pass that exposed the receivers' kidneys to the pile-driver of the safety. It was two passes, thrown fairly well, that resulted in a couple of massive hits by a player who may well be exceeding most folks' expectations at his position.

I always liked Rey and I thought that he'd do well in the NFL. I didn't think that the Broncos would like him only because of his style of play. He can be undisciplined at times and it was and is my impression that Josh McDaniels would not be interested in him for that reason. That's been true, and Andra Davis and Mario Haggan have let me be happy about it. Davis and Haggan are big guys who can hit very hard, but they both are playing tight, disciplined football. That's one of the hallmarks of our defense - everyone does his job and everyone trusts the guys next to him to do theirs. In a different system, a player might have more opportunities to freelance, to make decisions that might not fit the Broncos but might work well for another team. That's among the reasons that I didn't see Rey in predominantly orange, but as a Bengal, he's doing a very good job. Sometimes, that means he's able to make other players pay for doing theirs. More power to him.

By the way, I'd be remiss in talking about Orton today without giving a few more points on his work. Orton is averaging 7.5 yards per pass play and has a very respectable 91.2 QB rating with a 55.7% completion percentage. That probably won't get much higher, overall - Orton is a smart player who takes care of the ball. He'll throw it away to save the play and avoid the sacks and he knows that stats don't win ballgames. The Marshall TD in the first quarter was the 110th consecutive pass for Orton w/o an INT. By the end of the game, it was 128 passes for Kyle since throwing an INT (he threw two last December versus Green Bay). He also hasn't had a repeat of those throws that Rey defended so well. Whatever the wrinkle was, it's ironed out now.

I also enjoyed Josh McDaniels taking head-on this business of Orton as a 'game-manager' when talking to the press. That's a criticism that usually comes from those who don't know quite as much about football as they think they do - they talk about stats and completions as if those are the keys to a QB, and that's just not true. What else is there? Listen to McD, who gave some examples of the 'more' that a QB must have:

"We don't ever talk abut our quarterbacks as game managers, but you want a quarterback to be efficient, you want them to run the line of scrimmage and the huddle. He got us out of a bunch of plays (by calling audibles) yesterday at the line of scrimmage and in the running game which - you know, nobody ever talks about the quarterback when you run for 215 yards, but when he gets you out of a play that's going to go nowhere and you gain, you know, 26 on the play, he plays a part in good running, you know? So, not turning the ball over, you know, finding the open man when players are open and just being effective. Kyle certain could have done better yesterday but played well. And we're going to work to fix the things that he didn't do well. Once the game declares itself and you have a 17 point lead in the third quarter, you're not going to do things that could put the game in jeopardy.

"The quarterback has 12-15 things he has to go once the play is called (emphasis is mine). There's a lot of responsibility on his plate from the time he claps his hands to break the huddle to the moment that the ball is snapped. He has to call the cadence, to the identification of protection to 'Which running play should we go to', to reading the blitz, to figuring out if he has to get rid of it, to reading the overage to determine where he's going to throw it to reading our receivers to determining who's open. There's a lot of things that he has to do and Kyle does a lot of them well."

Coach McDaniels never claims that the team couldn't have done better and he probably never will. But the intelligence of Orton, his knowledge of the game and his abilities in the huddle and at the line have been underestimated since he came out of college, as have his arm strength and accuracy. Hopefully, that will diminish over time as people see more of him and learn more about the game from the head coach.

Fitting into the System

It's a principle that has been exposed this season - sometimes, it's more a matter of the fit between the player and the coach/system than it is a matter of how 'good' the player is. Almost all of the NFL's players are fairly 'good.' The big question tends to be - how well do you use the players that you have?

That fact is a major reason why most folks missed the boat on the Broncos' revival. It doesn't fit well into the quick, short, rote preconceptions that tend to pass for analysis and commentary, but it's an essential part of putting a competitive team on the field. In the first year of Josh McDaniels' head coaching career, McD has identified his needs and scouted his players to a 'T'. If you carefully ascertain the qualities that you need in a player and analyze the skill set of the player in a thorough and rational way, you can get a good fit and a good team relatively quickly.

There are limits, of course. Ray Lewis might be good in any system, but even then, a lot of folks questioned his desire to move to a 3-4. Would he fit? There are, as we can see, a lot of different 3-4 systems. Coverage LBs or not? Zone blitz? Bigger players, Bullough-type scheme? 5-2? Hybrid? As always, I recommend reading HT's classic, the Modern 3-4 Defenses. It never gets old. HT talked about what qualities (even though it's a fairly general article) are needed in players from different types of 3-4 schemes. He also talked to me more than once in emails about the smaller, lighter 'coverage' linebackers and how they might be used, even though that's not the approach that our team has taken. McDaniels and Nolan decided to go in a very specific direction. They found and molded a series of linebackers who have shown themselves to be excellent as individuals and adroit and effectual as players within the system. Intelligent, tough and physical was the yardstick. It's working.

The linebackers are very much of a type. Each of them is big and most are bigger than average, with the exceptions of D.J. Williams and Wes Woodyard. Darrell Reid's precise weight is a mystery, but it's above 260, probably about 270. Robert Ayers clocks in at 274. Doom is only 248 and you can see why he's beginning to flourish as his skill set and his position converge; he doesn't have the size to fight the tackles at the line and stop a ball carrier, but his leverage is unusually effective. With his 'running start', that's changing. Jarvis Moss is up to 257 and needs every pound; Andra Davis is comparatively light at 251. We only have one LB under 242, and Wesley Woodyard (who is ostensibly 222) hits like he's 265. Even so - he's a nickel LB and perfect for the position he plays. He is showing skills in coverage, a nose for the ball, and his special teams work is admirable. By the way, did you notice that Andra Davis and Mario Haggan asked to stay on special teams? Another consistency is that our players don't want to get off the field. They are versatile, able to handle multiple responsibilities, are generally more intelligent than average (and have a high Information Processing Speed, or IPS) as well as leadership qualities that stand out.

One of the things that has created such a remarkable performance on the Broncos' side of the ball has been the fact that McDaniels understands exactly what he wants from each player on the field. That sounds awfully rudimentary, doesn't it? Every head coach should know that about every player. The fact is (from all the reading I've done), that it's not as common as you would think. I tend to use Mario Haggan as a defensive example, so if you've read this before from me, I apologize.

Mario Haggan was a classic 'tweener'. Back when he was drafted, relatively few teams were using the 3-4, but he fit the bill as a 3-4 strongside LB perfectly. The only thing is, he was drafted as a middle linebacker in a 3-4 system, and was then asked mostly to play Sam. Not a problem, really - when he was on the field, his production was good. His special teams work was excellent, too. But in the Broncos' 'Oklahoma' variation 5-2/3-4 defense, he's become a mainstay on the field and his leadership has brought him a Captaincy and the admiration and respect of the entire team. What's the difference? Scheme, and taking advantage of the skills of the player..

At Mississippi State, Haggan showed that he's all about the team. Talking about the 1999 season, he once said in an interview, "That year was special because we played together as a team." Even then, Mario understood what it really takes to win. This is perhaps the first year he's had a chance to put all of his skills into effect on the field. He doesn't always get credit for what he accomplishes - he's already got a sack, of course, but when scoring they only give tackles and assists to so many players. When I'm watching film, I'm finding a swarm of Broncos piling into and onto the ball carrier. Haggan is usually one of them - along with Brian Dawkins, Andra Davis and several other Broncos. Give the right man the right role, make him believe that he's a part of something greater than himself and stay back. If you get too close, you'll end up in the scrum. Haggan did a great job in ripping the ball out when the raiders threatened at 7:38 in the second quarter, getting a fumble from Darren McFadden. Ryan McBean was holding McFadden's legs and Haggan just grabbed the ball and tore it away. Heads-up play, and typical of him this year. It took them from an advantageous position to 3rd and 16, holding them to their only field goal.

They also did what coaches everywhere tell their defensive players - there are three points of contact: the hands, elbow and ribcage. If you attack those, you can create fumbles. the Broncos are doing it, they study and practice the basics, and it matters.

By the way, Andra Davis is another great example. He was used in a 3-4 in Cleveland, but without the kind of scheming that Nolan uses in our '5-2' variation. Davis' weaknesses were more exposed in that scheme. He wasn't the right player for that system, but he's apparently nearly perfect for ours. A year ago, I mentioned that I hoped that Bob Slowik would develop a different approach to the defense, using the personnel to maximum benefit. It didn't happen then, but it has now. It's easy the see the difference. Davis is all over the film, play after play. D.J. Williams and he are a fierce pair at ILB.

You can also look at the transitions made by Elvis Dumervil and Darrell Reid. Both have adapted quickly to becoming productive in their new positions. You can see that as a merging of player effort, coaching expertise and the vision of the coaches to see where they could become more effective. Of Dumervil, Champ Bailey said,

"I think he's made the best transition from one position to completely another position that I've ever seen. He's showing his versatility. The guy wants to win and he does everything that we ask him to do."

It's one thing that has turned the Broncos' program around so quickly. The level of organization that Josh McDaniels learned - first from his father, next from his own training in mathematics and then from Bill Belichick, as well as his intellect and innate sense of logic and order - has permitted him to make far fewer mistakes than most first-time head coaches. The functions of the organization have been carefully planned and painstakingly executed. Given the offseason distractions, I won't say that McD 'makes it look easy'. I will say this - he's doing exactly what this organization needed.

For what it's worth, those who claimed that McDaniels would fail because other Belichick disciples have have committed a common logical fallacy. Every situation is unique. Many things have never happened - until they do. You have to judge on an individual basis.

Coaching Corner

McDaniels blew everyone away this week in his post-game remarks. His comments on coaching, teaching, tackling and communicating were a thing of sheer beauty. They also got me thinking. McDaniels, unlike many coaches, isn't intimidated by having the best around him. In fact, from Day 1, that's what he's worked to bring into the organization. I decided to look over the areas that our new coaches are responsible for, the teams that some of our coaches came from and how those teams are doing in the area that our new coaches left vacant. The results were impressive.

These are just a few of the results, but to me they are representative of the pattern. Josh McDaniels himself left the New England offensive coordinator's job. The Pats are struggling on offense. Part of this is natural - Tom Brady had a tough surgery last year and the adhesions still haven't broken down. They also are dealing with turnover on a large scale. Brady's not stepping into his throws the same way, a common post-surgical issue. Would Josh's coaching help? Perhaps. Is the Pats offense struggling a little more? Yes. No conclusion, here - just a fact.

Mike McCoy came to us from Carolina. I don't know what's gone on in Carolina, but this isn't the same team that played so well last season. Their offense is terrible. Could McCoy have been a factor in their success? Quite possibly. Has the offense diminished? Yes.

Mike Nolan came to us after being fired from a head coaching job in San Francisco. Mike Singletary is doing a heck of a job with them and starting to see results. I love Singletary and have since his playing days in Chicago as 'Samurai'. Nolan has changed the Broncos' ideas about defense and if there was a 'Coordinator of the Year' award, he should have gotten it already. No conclusion here, either, but Nolan deserves a lot of admiration right about now.

Wayne Nunnely vacated the defensive line coaching job in San Diego. He says that he wanted something new and we were lucky enough to get him. At the beginning of training camp, he was interviewed and in his terse, simple style he pointed out that it wasn't his job to pick the players - it was his job to tech them the techniques that would make them successful. He has. Our D-line is shocking people. I'm not at all surprised. I picked up a copy of Nunnely's teaching video on stunts and was instantly entranced. That man can teach. SD has suffered some injuries, but their D-line hasn't looked good, even before losing Jamal Williams.

Scott Priefer comes to us from Kansas City. They are struggling on special teams, but they are struggling everywhere. Still - he's been a godsend for the Broncos, who needed special teams help like a dying man in the desert needs water. Welcome, coach. Has the change, from where we were to where we are, been anything but a tribute to this man?

Don Martindale came to us from the depths of Oakland and is our linebackers coach. Hey, how are our linebackers doing this year? Anyone changed positions and found success? On the other side, how did the Oakland linebackers play on Sunday? Not so well...

Okay, their whole team melted down, but the point is still relevant. There is a pattern here - we are finding great success and the teams that lost out on our coaches are consistently not doing well in the areas that they vacated. Is it due to the coaches? I can't swear to it, but there is one heck of a coincidence going on if that's not the case.

Congratulations to Josh McDaniels for putting this team together, driving the changes to the Broncos and teaching them how to be winners. My hat is off to the man. He's only 33? Amazing....

I'll Trade You

Congratulations also to Renaldo Hill on his INT against OAK. It couldn't happen to a more deserving player.

Okay, what do you think? That the Miami Dolphins are happy that they refused to pay up some guaranteed money on Renaldo Hill to keep him around? Or do you think that they regret giving the cash to Gibril Wilson? Renaldo Hill has been part of one of the best secondaries in the NFL, with cornerbacks Champ Bailey, Andre' Goodman and Alphonso Smith and Hill joining the still-young Brian Dawkins at safety in front of newcomers Darcel McBath and David Bruton, while Wilson has become a target for opposing quarterbacks. Wilson's weaknesses were displayed for the nation on the Week 2 Monday Night Football contest between MIA and IND.

A simple, clear stat, courtesy of the Denver Post:

The Dolphins were 11-5 with Hill last year; 0-3 without him this year. The Broncos were 8-8 without Hill last year; 3-0 with him this year. It's simplistic, sure, but there's a kernel of truth. You could also look at the fact that the Broncos now have 8 defensive turnovers in 3 games. At this rate, they'll have exceeded last year's total before the bye. Again, is it Hill? No, not entirely. Has he been a force on the field? You bet. Watching film, Hill is consistently around the ball.

This one looks to me like a 'cut-off-your-nose-to-spite-your face' kind of situation in Miami. Do you think that the Fins would be willing to trade back right about now? Wilson was terrible in the loss to Indianapolis and didn't play well against San Diego, either. While Peyton Manning has made a lot of good players look bad over his career, that game was more than an off day for Wilson and he didn't bounce back this week against Philip Rivers, who is no slouch either. I don't think that it's unfair to note that with Wilson, when Al Davis isn't willing to throw money at a player, they usually often aren't much good to anyone else, either. Another free agency coup for the Broncos.

There has been some conversation in the media recently about a fact that has appeared in multiple sources including the BT&M from last week: Many teams in the NFL are now going to roughly the kind of offense that the Broncos are using, with an emphasis on the short passing game. It is based in an important change in the league - more and more safeties have sub-4.40 speed. With the swiftness and coverage skills that many of them have, you can't go deep as easily as in years past. That has two ramifications for Denver: First, it means a lot of playing time for 2nd-round draft pick Alphonso Smith at nickelback (hurry back, Alphonso).

Second, it explains something about Renaldo Hill of which many Broncos fans seem unaware. Renaldo was drafted in the 7th round (#202 overall) of the 2001 Draft by the Arizona Cardinals as a cornerback. He played left cornerback for them for 4 years and then spent a season in OAK at the same position on a one-year contract. After that, he took a three-year deal with MIA where he was moved to free safety to take advantage of his speed, size and cover skills. He has made improvement at that position each year, and has really just begun to play at what may be his best level. The Broncos are using his intelligence and skill set to best advantage, too - depending on the down, either he or Brian Dawkins may be playing a 'centerfield' role. Usually they divide the field and each is responsible for quarterbacking their side of the defense. The two veterans have no problem in communicating with each other, either, and this is a big reason that the secondary is playing so well.

Gibril Wilson didn't come to OAK until 2008. He'd been a strong safety and (in 2007) a free safety for the Giants since 2004. Still, it's odd how things work out, isn't it? The raiders missed out on Hill's best use and let him go; the Dolphins found it but they, too, let him go and the Broncos smiled broadly and said, "Thank you very much!", giving him a 4-year, $10 million contract to be paired with Brian Dawkins in a great tandem. Knowing exactly what you are looking for - in this case, a safety with speed and cornerback skills, seeing clearly why you want X players and giving them the best position to be successful are all keys to creating a team that wins consistently.

Despite our best wishes as fans, you can't force interceptions. You can only put yourself in the best position to snag them when the opportunity arises. The Broncos went up another plus-two in turnovers this week by doing just that. Congratulations to Andre' Goodman as well on his own INT, a man who is also missed by MIA - he's also playing at a very high level. Goodman is about $5 million per year that is very well spent.

Block and Tackle

I just re-watched the tape of Correll Buckhalter from Week 2, running for daylight to the tune of 45 yards and a TD, and compared that to some of the similar runs he made against Oakland. You know what really stood out? Beyond his skill and his ability to cut back at angles that confused and defeated defender after defender, that play (and several others) started with a hole formed by zone-blocking from Chris Kuper and Ryan Harris that you could have sailed the Queen Mary through, with room to spare. On the same drive at the 6-minute mark, Tony Scheffler took the Will LB out of the play with a great stand-up block. It's happening all over the field. This week, both Russ Hochstein and Tyler Polumbus also blocked well when they came in. At the opening drive of the second half (I couldn't see the number), the RB did a textbook job of picking up the blitz and taking his man out of the play. Daniel Graham had time to go underneath, over the middle and picked up yet another first down because of that block (with a nice throw by Kyle Orton).

As I looked through the tape of the games so far, one of the things that stood out was the improvement in fundamentals and physicality on both sides of the ball: blocking by the offense and tackling by the defense. Our blocking was usually good in 2008 but even with some of the goal-line breakdowns, it's been more physical than last year. It's true that the Broncos O-line was fairly brilliant in pass-blocking last season and by the latter part of the season, they were run-blocking almost equally well. But non-line individuals - and Tony Scheffler is a standout among them - have continued to improve. Brandon Marshall, of course is another fine example of a non-line player making the blocks for us, and he did it last season, too. The blocking has opened the road for Buckhalter, who is currently third in the league at 7.2 yards per gain. Buck also picked up the blitz at 4 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter - no one was open, but there was no sack, either. Solid, solid play.

After the game, Josh McDaniels commented, "I think a part of good tackling is angles. We do a lot of angle tackling drills in practice; most of the time we don't go all the way to the ground, now. We did in training camp. But when you're taking the proper angle, that's kind of half the battle to me...I think our guys understand leverage and angles..." Apparently so. "Draft picks? We always want to make sure that we're getting real good tacklers." Alphonso Smith was singled out - and for good reason. Tackling is being taught properly. There is a constant emphasis on fundamentals that seems 'new'. I loved learning Josh's thoughts on the technique of tackling and apparently, from the articles, a lot of us did. He's a heck of a communicator.

By the way, another draft pick, Darcel McBath has a team-high six special-teams tackles through three games. Another draft choice, another excellent tackler. He's going to fit right in. We're also co-leading the league, tied for first, with 10 sacks.

Tackling and blocking have a lot in common - physicality, a basis in attitude and the importance of technique being among those similarities. The improvement in defensive personnel certainly stands out, but the level of tackling by our team has shot up by tenfold this season. Whether it's Nolan, McDaniels, personnel, attitude, all of the above or something else, Denver is looking like a different team, and playing like one as well. What a great season!

SquashMaster Award

I've decided to give a little extra love each week to the player(s) who lead the team in tackles by establishing the weekly SquashMaster Award. This week, D.J. Williams took top honors with 7 tackles and a forced fumble that was recovered by Brian Dawkins. Congratulations, D.J.! In second place was Elvis 'Doom' Dumervil, who raised his season sack total to 6 and added 5 solo tackles for the team. Can Elvis extend his streak of sacks against the Dallas front five? Don't bet against him. By the way, Doom did just what was predicted in attacking the strong side and right tackle Cornell Green. He also moved around on both sides.

Many fans wondered at the beginning of the season how D.J. would react to moving into yet another position and whether he could bounce back after the less-than-stellar performance of 2008. Not to worry - D.J. is tearing up the league right now. It's also gratifying to see that a different player leads the team in tackles each week so far and all three have been among our veterans and leaders. Veteran leadership - what a concept!

Some may have missed a small thing that made a big difference - when Doom went after the fumble in the 2nd quarter, he couldn't pick the ball up but he did manage to tip it backwards. OAK recovered, but they were farther back and had lost more ground due to Elvis' heads-up play. Another play that reflects the principle of tipping the ball to control the game - we've had at least one each week.

Sack Stats

After 3 games, the theoretically immobile Kyle Orton has taken 3 sacks. Another perfectly good snarky theory bites the dust...Considering that both Cincinnati and Oakland's defensive fronts have been good at getting after the QB in their other games, that says a lot about our line. This isn't hot news, but it's nice to see, especially with the number of plays that our starters have sat out with one injury and another. Congrats, by the way, to Tyler Polumbus who played well in reserve, spelling Ryan Harris and to Russ Hochstein who spelled Ben Hamilton. The solid play of the line is an old Broncos tradition, by the way. Look at the stats since 2003:

Fewest sacks allowed in the NFL since 2003:

Team ... Sacks ... Yards

Indianapolis ... 107 ... 643
Denver ... 141 ... 854
Green Bay ... 147 ... 1,019
San Diego ... 163 ... 1,095
New Orleans ... 172 ... 1,034

Iron Clady Redux

For perspective on Ryan Clady's streak at left tackle, there were 1,036 sacks in the NFL last year, or about 6.5 for every starting offensive lineman in the league. An average NFL offensive lineman gives up one sack about every 10 quarters. Clady has played every snap this season and last for the Broncos, who have passed 708 times over the past 80 quarters. He has given up only a half-sack, to then-Patriots end Richard Seymour whom he blanked in this week's contest, frustrating him in a way that lead to the 1st ever NFL Hair-Pulling Award. Stay classy, Richard. Asked about his actions, Seymour replied: "It was not a mistake, brother. Next question." Funny - I'm pretty sure that on the Broncos, costing the team 15 yards is considered a heck of a mistake. But that's the difference in the two teams.

Far more importantly, though, it's been 80 quarters since Clady's first regular season start and Ryan has given up 1/2 a sack? That's quite a stat. He has also tied the record for games without a full sack at 19. What a player he is!

It goes beyond his quick feet, size and long arms - Clady is both a brilliant technician and a brilliant tactician. Head Coach Josh McDaniels offered some unique insight on his intelligence. He said what impressed him about Clady was how he changes his approach from play-to-play; attacking the end on one play, then sits back and rides him away from the quarterback on the next.

"He's a smart player," McDaniels said. "He understands what the guy has seen from him already and what he hasn't and he mixes it up pretty well. A lot of people might ask, how much can a left tackle mix up his protection? You can and it's effective."

Clady commented (see below) that he didn't think that he played that well against Oakland. I don't even know what to say to that. The offensive line didn't give up a sack, didn't commit a penalty and blew open huge holes in the line for the running backs while giving Kyle Orton lots of time to throw. I guess that other than that, they probably didn't do that much. They didn't invent a perpetual motion machine on the sidelines during the game, or anything. Come to think of it, they didn't need to - the Broncos already have Dawkins.

By the way, on Buckhalter's huge run of 34 yards at 6:13 in the 2nd quarter, Hamilton and Clady sealed off their men perfectly, but the run was freed up with Harris, pulling all the way over to take out the weakside linebacker that freed Buckhalter on the play. Our run blocking is becoming a thing of great beauty. If you can, go back and watch the play. Wow.

Humility and Honor

There is a pattern to these Broncos that stands out when you look for it: Every player on the team gives the credit for their performances to others. Last week it was Dumervil and Andra Davis, each of whom was asked about their own performance and each of whom wanted to talk about the accomplishments of the other. When you talk to Alphonso Smith, he tells you about Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins. Whether it's Kyle Orton giving credit for the offense to his line, backs and receivers, or Eddie Royal deflecting questions about his production by pointing to the plays it's opening up for the other receivers, this team seems to be the anti-ego. It's the antithesis of the me-driven locker room, the group that looks to their own stats before they look at their team's wins. It's a big reason that they have three wins to count. After the game, Darrell Reid was talking about the things that the defense didn't do well and how they need to improve. This is after holding Oakland to 3 points and 137 total yards. Perfection may not be attainable, but these men are going to try.

This week it was Dumervil again, this time giving credit to Ryan Clady for his own performance and sack totals. This is what he said:

"You know one of the reasons I get sacks on Sundays is (Ryan Clady). Going against him every day is hell," Dumervil said. "There's no other way to say it. He's athletic, long arms - pretty much the toughest tackle I've ever gone against. He's just special. He's going to be on that side for 20 years. He's athletic, he's smart, he has poise - he doesn't get rattled. There's not much you can beat him with."

Ryan's replay? "The way we practice, that's what I do (in games)." He then said, "I don't think I played that well." Well, only good enough to have another zero-sack day and to open huge holes for the running game. But, Dumervil got the last word:

"Both those guys - Harris and Clady - are tough, tough guys, but Clady is the guy I see every day, and if you break even sometimes, you think you won," said Doom. "I come into game days thinking the guy I'm playing isn't going to surprise me with something I haven't seen before because I was banging against Ryan Clady all week. We always go against each other; he doesn't go against anyone else and I don't go against anyone else. He gets me better, and I hope I get him better."

This is the kind of thing that defines a successful team. We know from various sources - mostly players, speaking later on condition of anonymity - that the locker room the past few years had been cursed with a kind of me-first attitude, with players showing a preference for their own individual stats over the outcome of the games. That has gone away. What you see now is a tendency to recognize the benefits of the team over the individual accords. Ironically, it leads to more and more individual as well as team accords. The way this team was designed and built constantly amazes me. It's also interesting to note that one of the best qualities of Kyle Orton - that he stays calm and doesn't rattle - is equally reflected in his left tackle. Those two aren't alone in that, which speaks very well for the team's ultimate potential.

Following the game, Josh McDaniels was asked how the Broncos could improve. On how to motivate his players this week, he said, "Just show them the film. We've got a 50 play cut-up that we'll watch during the squad meeting." He then gave a wry smile. "It's not all ribbons and bows...They saw it every week we played so far. 'Boy, if we'd only done these five or six things better, it could have been an even a better performance.' You don't have to convince them that they need to improve. They know they need to get better." That's the kind of thing that keeps a team grounded in reality, striving to get even better and ready for any opponent.

Ayers and Perception

Robert Ayers hasn't burned up the field in this, his rookie season. Coming late into training camp, as so many 1st-round rookies do, he quickly found himself behind the curve. He didn't play all that well at first and looked tentative. Following up on a comment to the effect that he 'hasn't shown up', I spent some time watching film from last Sunday. I had started to notice Ayers during the Week 2 game against Cleveland - he helped collapse the pocket, was in on some tackles, and seemed to be starting to find the ball. It's true that he only has one tackle, but there's more to playing than stats. Sunday, my initial impression had been that his play was even better. I went back to find a few examples. It didn't take long...

On the third play from scrimmage, 3rd and 13, it was Ayers who collapsed the pocket, hurrying Russell who completed the throw to his outlet for 8 yards when he needed 13. Nice play. Ayers had been contained by Cornell Green on the play before, but not this time. Interestingly, on this occasion he was lined up as a defensive tackle in a 4-3 set, going up against the double team of the center and Cooper Carlisle. He defeated it to pressure Russell, which is asking a lot of a 274-lb. rookie. By the way, I love the way we're using the 4-3 in long-yardage situations.

He came back in the second quarter, running across the field in a heads-up play to help tackle Zach Miller for a 12-yard gain on 3rd and 16. Without Ayers it could have been a first down. Ayers did have help on the tackle and wasn't credited it, but he hit Miller high while someone else (bad camera angle) held his legs.

But that was it for Ayers in the first quarter. Is that a problem? Not at all. Davis, Haggan, D.J., Reid and Doom are playing like champs. Ayers will only get time in rotation - we're playing so well that if he gets in, great. If not, great. I don't think that it's a knock on Ayers. He's behind a lot of guys in the depth chart who are just playing at a very high level. That's not a bad thing. It means that we're deep and strong.

He also came in for the last series in the half when we were in the nickel - both Ayers and Wesley Woodyard were in. Woodyard stuffed Michael Bush for a loss on the final play of the half - Ayers stayed at home, held his gap and did what he was supposed to. The play just didn't go at him. He also made a nice stop (see picture above) on Bush. Give the man a little time.

Final Notes

Orton, McDaniels and the Goal Line Stand. While I was watching the replays of the game on NFL Rewind, I noted something: Orton is becoming deadly over the middle. It brought up an interesting point that sent me back to the film and statistics from last season: Chicago didn't believe that and wouldn't call much in the way of passes over the middle when Orton was there. Out of 455 passes he threw last season, only 54 were thrown over the middle, which might have, in part, been a personnel issue. I've mentioned before that Orton at times throws a flat pass, but look at these numbers. Go figure. In one way, you can understand why they thought that - Orton was only at a 53.7% completion rate over the middle and had a 5.56 INT rate there - but there must have been a scheme and/or personnel issue that influenced this. Orton has been excellent over the middle all season, and seems to be getting even better each game. His passing has always been strongest to the left side/weak side, by the way. It will be interesting to watch his distribution as the season progresses.

Some folks have questioned Josh McDaniels' call for four rushing plays down on the goal line on the first drive and I wanted to touch on that quickly. I liked his response and wanted to include it here:

"We were all disappointed," McDaniels said about the series. "When you're down there that tight, you want to give your football team an opportunity to get it in. And if we have that same opportunity come up next week, we'd do it again, and we'll get it in. We'll work hard to fix the things we didn't get right there and push that thing in."

That covers it. Hochstein, by the way, was the lead blocker and never got to the goal line, so the RB could not, either. We'll need to fix that. Statistically, by the way, you score on such a series about 50% of the time, although you strive for more, and therefore you can get 7-14 points instead of the 6 if you kick both field gals. There's another reason, though, that you go for it - this team doesn't believe that anyone can stop it twice. They were right and got the next one with a passing route underneath by Marshall in that same mismatch with Morrison. I like that attitude.

Home against Dallas - In the upcoming contest, Dallas will be a good test for the Broncos, but I'm taking the home team. Dallas isn't strong enough on both sides of the ball to convince me otherwise and it's my impression that we match up well with them. Consider this:

While they have a good offense, they can get rattled. Tony Romo still needs to prove that he has the calm that Kyle Orton is known for. While I have a lot of respect for the Dallas offensive front line, I have just as much or more for Doom and the Devastators. Felix Jones is a great running back but apparently won't play, We've played the run quite well overall so far. I'm not as impressed with their pass blocking. Our secondary is playing well, despite the fact that other teams are constantly throwing the ball and playing catch-up; they're tackling well, covering well and starting to see the inevitable INTs. The Dallas secondary has weaknesses that can be exploited. Our offense is doing well in the passing and rushing attacks, and special teams have been very special. We could get more long run-backs if we don't seal the edges, but other than that, I've got very few criticisms.

They have a good D-line that isn't producing - we have Mt. Clady and Friends. DeMarcus Ware has continued to disappear, even against Carolina. The 'Boys finally got a few sacks against a woeful O-line of the Panthers but they haven't shown me that they can dominate even a weaker team. Rookie linebacker Victor Butler broke out with 2 sacks and a forced fumble and the Broncos will need to account for him but he was only on the field for 5 plays. I'm comfortable with this Rick Dennison-coached group. They are on the road and Orton is what - 16-2 at home? This is a new Broncos squad that can take on the best and at least be competitive.

Romo can be deadly in a single game. Against Carolina, he was efficient but not showy and he didn't get a single TD throw. The Cowboys only put up 13 points on offense. Ronald Fields has been clogging the middle effectively against the run. Marcus Thomas has been a more than serviceable second-string NT - he has been in for rushing as well as passing downs now. They will be game-planning for Doom, but seriously - that gets you Davis, Dawkins, Reid, D.J. and Haggan with less obstacles.

On the other side - the holes that Kuper and Harris are opening have been enormous and Russ Hochstein and Tyler Polumbus played just fine in relief. Right now, we expect Harris to play. If Harris is not in, they will game-plan to put pressure on Polumbus/Hochstein and to be honest - I'm looking forward to see how they handle it. Polumbus in particular has looked great in the small amounts I've seen him. I've love to see him in a test game. The Dallas D-line and front seven are noticeably smaller than our squad. Dallas committed 9 penalties against Carolina and gave up 3 TDs to Tampa Bay. These numbers don't scare me.

I see it as a potentially tough game, but very winnable. McD is famous for making great adjustments during gametime, and that's a big advantage. I don't think that Wade Phillips is in Josh's ballpark as a head coach. We now have an advantage in McD and Nolan that just doesn't quit.

Prediction: I'm calling for a win, but it could still be a close game, perhaps about 27-20. IIf they put their team together on the road they can give us a run for the money, but I expect them to fall short. If our defense plays as well as it can, we'll win going away.

Go Denver!