SB Nation - Clinton Hart

Rams fans pick the Heisman winner

VanRam — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:27:08 -0000

Take a break from celebrating the news that the St. Louis Rams signed S Clinton Hart to the roster, and make your voice heard on an important college football matter.

From the five Heisman Trophy finalists, who would you pick to receive the award?

Could one of them be in a Rams uni next year?

Poll

Who would be your top choice for the Heisman Trophy?

Chargers Stat of the Day: Defensive Ratings

John (obviousman) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:05:35 -0000

by Chris Park - AP

The San Diego Chargers defense swarms Brian Westbrook during the Chargers 31-23 victory in a NFL football game Sunday Nov. 15, 2009 in San Diego. (AP Photo/Chris Park)

View full size photo »

Attention all nerds. Do you head straight to Football Outsiders when you're looking for better-than-average stats? Well, I found another website that you're going to want to bookmark. (Editor's Note: This is not a paid advertisement. I've never even talked with the guys from this website. So if this sounds like a sales-pitch, it's not.)

ProFootballFocus.com is a website that football stat-geeks have been dying for without knowing it. Just about any question you have about the team can be answered within their stats. Want to know who has played the most defensive plays for the Bolts? Eric Weddle, with 544. How about which player has the most QB Pressures? It's a tie between Luis Castillo and Shaun Phillips (both have 10). Wondering who the best MLB on the Chargers is? You'll be surprised.

Let's delve into some of PFF's defensive stats and player ratings...

I was taught a long time ago to never argue with someone who was smarter than me. I almost never abide by this rule, but today I'll make an exception. These guys have done such a great job at collecting stats, that I'm going to assume they do just as good of a job comparing them.

In terms of defense, it appears they look at all of the stats (sacks, QB hits, QB pressures, tackles, penalties, missed tackles, stops) and compare them relative to the number of plays the player had played. So a played like Brandon Siler, who has 10 stops on 104 plays, would be looked at as a more efficient player when he's on the field than Stephen Cooper (22 stops in 454 plays).

Each player is rated based upon their work rushing the passer, stopping the run and in pass coverage. Also factored in are things like Penalties being called against that player (surprisingly, leading the Chargers D in penalties is a tie between Shawne Merriman, Shaun Phillips and Larry English) and Missed Tackles.

The missed tackles stat also needs to be looked at proportionally against actual tackles. For instance, Stephen Cooper leads the team with 10 missed tackles to go with his 48 tackles on the season. However, that's probably not as bad as Antonio Cromartie's 6 missed tackles with only 15 tackles to his name.

So, follow me down the rabbit hole as we look at PFF's ratings of Chargers defensive players by position group. The number next to each player is their PFF Rating, which is roughly explained here. In a nutshell, zero is average across the league and any number above that is above average. Any number below is obviously below average. Also, for the sake of this not being too confusing, I'm leaving out any player who has been on the field for less than 75 snaps.

Defensive Line

Travis Johnson -1.5
Ian Scott -3.0
Alfonso Boone -3.1
Ogemdi Nwagbuo -3.1
Jacques Cesaire -9.5
Luis Castillo -10.3

How about that trade for Johnson? The Castillo number is a bit jarring, but appears to be accurate. Although he's near the top on the team in terms of defensive stops and QB pressures, apparently relative to the number of plays he's played it's just not as impressive as it has seemed. Also, according to their individual rankings he's fairly average at rushing the passer and well below average at stopping the run. For those looking for a comparison, Castillo's 2008 was ranked at 0.8 (or just a little above average) and Jamal Williams' 2008 was ranked at 27.4. 27.4! In 2007, Castillo was well above average at 7.7 when he was on the field.

Linebackers

Brandon Siler 5.8
Shaun Phillips 2.7
Kevin Burnett 2.6
Stephen Cooper -2.4
Tim Dobbins -2.7
Shawne Merriman -3.3
Larry English -12.2

I told you this stuff was interesting. As mentioned above, Cooper is killed by his missed tackles and by being below-average (-1.5) in pass coverage. Siler is actually the only LB that ranks as above average against the run and in pass coverage this year. Phillips would probably be #1 if it weren't for the 4 penalties he's picked up this season. This group is greatly improved from 2008, when no LB ranked as average or above average (Wilhelm was -16.9 if you were wondering).

Cornerbacks

Antoine Cason 1.4
Steve Gregory -1.0
Quentin Jammer -3.8
Antonio Cromartie -5.6

Jammer is actually playing better than he did in 2008, when his season ranking was -5.9. The stats seem a little off for cornerbacks in terms of what's "average", but at least they appear to be consistent. Cromartie's 2008 rating? -27.4. He was the anti-Jamal Williams.

Safties

Eric Weddle 3.7
Paul Oliver 0.5
Clinton Hart -1.8
Kevin Ellison -2.7

Before you start screaming about Hart being rated ahead of Ellison, listen up. Here's what I gather as the explanation by looking at the stats they're presenting. Both players are equal against the run (0.5), and the rookie actually better in pass coverage (-2.3 to -3.7), but the main two factors that catapult Hart above Ellison is penalties (zero for Hart, 2 for Ellison) and pass rushing (1.4 for Hart, 0.1 for Ellison). I can't entirely disagree with that, and considering these guys are charting the plays and I'm not....I'm going to believe them.

Still, it was the right move to get rid of Hart. Ellison is an improving player and Clinton was a declining one. Also, it has opened up plenty of playing time for Paul Oliver (who is obviously playing well).

So what do you guys think? Interesting stuff, right? Obviously, like all stats, these are not perfect. From what I can tell, these ratings do not factor in the level of competition being faced (which explains why Gregory would be higher than Jammer and Cromartie) nor do they factor in double-teams (which explains why Luis Castillo is down this year and why Shaun Phillips had such a poor rating in 2008). Still, in terms of judging who is making the most impact with their time on the field....it's intriguing.

Stats and rankings taken from ProFootballFocus.com do not include information from the Week 10 match-up against the Philadelphia Eagles.

San Diego Chargers Half-Season Awards

John (obviousman) — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:29:28 -0000

When the Chargers schedule initially came out, I remember looking at it and thinking to myself, "I'll take 5-3 at the halfway point." Well, the Bolts are there and the only difference in the situation is that they're looking up at the Broncos. Still, if the season were to end today the Chargers would be in the playoffs.

It has been a rocky first-half though. The team has lost one of it's defensive captains, replaced the starting SS and benched the future starting CB (probably). Also, Brandon Siler started a couple of games and wasn't as bad as everyone feared. All in all, a good 8 games. However, some myself remains......like who won the prestigious BFTB Half-Season Awards?

Chargers' Coach of the Half-Season

Norv Turner

I remember watching a video clip of Norv giving an interview earlier in the season. I believe it was after the Pittsburgh loss. He was being questioned about his job, and his response was something along the lines of "I don't really care what people think." I remember thinking that it was just a cliche line, but I'm starting to think it's true. Norv never seems to be rattled by the constant criticism of the fans and media. Isn't that who you'd want coaching your team?

Turner has done a great job of keeping control of the locker room during a rough patch of games, and they're growing together now (as evident by his hug with LT). He deserves praise for that. He also deserves praise for making the calls for a top 10 offense without a semblance of a rushing threat.

Is Norv ever going to coach a 14-2 mistake-free team that eventually wins the Super Bowl? Who knows? Not many coaches can. However, with each passing year I'm confident that this team will always be competitive with him at the helm. His steadiness is a big reason why.

Chargers' Offensive Player of the Half-Season

Vincent Jackson

#83 / Wide Receiver / San Diego Chargers

Height: 6-5

Weight: 230

Born: Jan 14, 1983

College: Northern Colorado

He has been ridiculously good. His playoff games in the 2007 season cannot even compare to the games he's put up every week of this season.

VJ's numbers are incredibly consistent when you compare his stats by quarters, by halves or even by down. 88% of his catches have been for first down! He leads the team in receiving TDs with 7. The next highest player has 2.

In 2009, Vincent Jackson has been every bit as important to the offense as Philip Rivers. If he isn't with the Chargers in 2010, it will be the shock of the century.

	Receiving						Kickoff Returns					Punt Returns
G	Rec	Yds	Y/G	AVG	Lng	TD	KR	YDS	AVG	Lng	TD	PR	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD
8	42	722	90.3	17.2	55	7	0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Chargers' Defensive Player of the Half-Season

Eric Weddle

#32 / Free Safety / San Diego Chargers

Height: 5-11

Weight: 200

Born: Jan 04, 1985

College: Utah

Things I just realized in the last 30 seconds....

Eric Weddle looks a lot like my wife's ex-boyfriend from high school. They're practically twins.
Eric Weddle is exactly 2 weeks older than me.

Anyways, back to the award. Eric Weddle has been ridiculous this season. Talk about fitting out a stat sheet...

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2009 - Eric Weddle	8	1	6	1	31	1	46	9	55

Every box has a number in it! On top of those stats, he also is second on the team with 4 defended passes. He's been solid against the run and the pass, and has even found some time to lay a handful of big hits on receivers coming over the middle.

Much like Shaun Phillips has been better with the recent re-emergence of Shawne Merriman, Weddle has been even better with Kevin Ellison/Paul Oliver playing next to him since Clinton Hart was waived.

Chargers' Rookie of the Half-Season

Kevin Ellison

#25 / Strong Safety / San Diego Chargers

Height: 6-1

Weight: 221

Born: Jan 08, 1987

College: U-S-C

Here's my argument for Ellison over Louis Vasquez and Larry English. Vasquez almost won the starting job by default due to Kynan Forney's neck injury in camp, and English has yet to make a big splash in any game. Ellison was a 6th round pick and 3rd on the depth chart at the beginning of the season, and is now starting and playing on 90% of the snaps. That not only shows the talent he possesses, but it shows that he didn't give up and continued to fight in practice for the spot even after it looked like he wouldn't get a shot this season.

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2009 - Kevin Ellison	4	0	0	0	0	0	17	6	23

By the way, anybody else realize that Jackson, Weddle and Ellison all have birthdays within 10 days of each other? Random.....

Chargers' Comeback Player of the Half-Season

Luis Castillo

#93 / Defensive- End / San Diego Chargers

Height: 6-3

Weight: 290

Born: Aug 04, 1983

College: Northwestern

It's funny how confused he looks in that picture. Anyways, I'm not even going to bother posting his stats because they don't matter. He's on pace for a Jamal Williams-type season, where the stats don't show up because the offense he's facing is too busy double and triple-teaming him.

He's been a beast this season and has earned his big contract. The key has been his health. For the second consecutive year, he's managed to stay on the field. The difference this year is that he's practicing and generally seems to be avoiding his usual nagging injury. This is the player we all fell in love with in 2006 and 2007.

Chargers' MVP of the Half-Season

Philip Rivers

#17 / Quarterback / San Diego Chargers

Height: 6-5

Weight: 228

Born: Dec 08, 1981

College: North Carolina State

Was there ever any doubt? Similar to Luis, Philip may be having his best season yet but you wouldn't know it by looking at the stat sheet. Without a rushing attack to speak of, an offensive line to block for him or a defense for the first quarter of the season, Rivers managed to keep himself healthy and dangerous.

His game-winning drives against the Raiders and the Giants speak for themselves. What has impressed me the most has been his ability to avoid mistakes while avoiding pass-rushers on seemingly ever play.

With his strong play, Rivers has solidified his spot as a top 10 QB in the league and has even made some fans in the fanbases of opposing teams. Now it's the Chargers' job to give him the support he needs to finally get that Super Bowl ring that both Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning have gotten.

		Passing									Rushing					Sacks
	G	Rating	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	INT	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Sack	YdsL
2009 - Philip Rivers	8	94.6	166	274	60.6	2245	280.6	8.2	14	6	15	47	5.9	3.1	1	18	119

Game Preview: San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

John (obviousman) — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:37:58 -0000

Another week, another preview. This one should be significantly more optimistic than the past few, though. It's no secret that I think these two Kansas City Chiefs games this season will be easy wins for the San Diego Chargers. I don't buy into the mystique and I don't buy into last year's close games determining how these games will go.

Last year's Chargers games were perfect mis-matches for the Chiefs. Clinton Hart couldn't come close to covering Tony Gonzalez (nobody on the Chargers' D could), when Mark Bradley was hot was when Antonio Cromartie was having trouble staying with fast receivers downfield and Dwayne Bowe took advantage of the Chargers' weaknesses at Safety. More than anything, though, Tyler Thigpen and that Pistol offense worked wonders against the Bolts' defense that, in all honesty, isn't very fast and didn't throw a lot of complicated pre-snap looks at the rookie QB.

This year I think things are different. The only real receiving threat on the team is Bowe. He'll probably get his numbers, but if you shut down the rest of their receivers the Chiefs will have a difficult time putting together long drives. And here's a big kicker.....with a QB that holds onto the ball too long and an offensive line that's struggling, the Chargers might actually get a pass rush.

A full breakdown of the game and stats is after the jump.

When the Chiefs have the ball

After bringing in Todd Haley to coach and Matt Cassel to lead the offense, the Chiefs were hoping to spread things out and create a pass-first attack similar to Arizona's. That hasn't worked out too well thusfar, mostly because the Chiefs don't have the weapons to "spread things out" and the running game has offered no help in bringing opposing Safeties up for help.

Kansas City's offense ranks 30th in the league in offensive yards per game and 25th in points per game. There are some bright spots, like the 9th ranked Time of Possession, but then there are some not-so-bright spots like having the 4th most fumbles in the league. The biggest problem with the Chiefs offense, because they only have one true offensive weapon, is third downs. Their 21% conversion rate on third downs is not only dead last in the league, it is significantly lower than the third down conversion rate of the 31st ranked team (OAK - 26%). This is great news for the Chargers, who have struggled to get off the field because of poor play on third down.

KC's running game ranks 25th in the league in yards per game and 26th in the league in yards per carry. The Matt Cassel-led passing offense ranks 27th in the league in yards per game, but they have more passing TDs than the Chargers do (7). As was illustrated in the Arrowhead Pride post I linked to earlier this week, Cassel's weakness remains his inability (or unwillingness) to throw the ball downfield. The Chief's passing game ranks 25th in plays of 20+ yards and 16th in plays of 40+ yards.

In the preseason I pointed to the extraordinary number of times Cassel was sacked as the Patriots QB as evidence that he held onto the ball too long. This season that same issue has been paired with a bad offensive line, leading to 22 sacks on the Chief's signal-caller. That ties for second in the league with the Lions and behind only the Packers. Considering the Chargers face neither of those teams this year, this is going to be the best opportunity for players like Larry English, Shaun Phillips and Shawne Merriman to get to the QB and pad their stats.

On the season, the Bolts rank 23rd in yards allowed per game and 28th in points allowed per game. They're allowing 141 rushing yards per game, good for 27th in the league. The passing defense has been solid though, ranking 13th in the league in yards allowed. Although the team's 7 sacks makes them the 29th best team (or 3rd worst) in the league on the pass-rush, the secondary's strong play has put them among the top 10 teams in 40+ yard passing plays allowed and 20+ yard passing plays allowed.

Advantage: Chargers. This will not be the game where Matt Cassel finds his down-field touch. Quentin Jammer and Kevin Ellison should spend a lot of time double-teaming Dwayne Bowe to keep him in check. I'm hopeful that the Bolts get Cassel to the ground at least a couple of times, which should hopefully turn into a turnover or two. If the Chiefs find a way to consistently grind out long-drives and score TDs against the Chargers, I will be very surprised.

When the Chargers have the ball

After their best game of the season against the Broncos, the Chargers' offensive ranks remain relatively the same. They're still in the middle of the pack in terms of offensive yards (14th), towards the top in terms of points per game (9th), struggling with the running game (32nd in rushing yards per game and yards per carry) and awesome with the passing game (5th in passing yards per game). The pass protection hasn't been great, especially at Center and RB, but Philip Rivers has done enough to make that group only 10th worst in terms of sacks allowed.

The Chargers are in trouble if the Chiefs are having success rushing the passer, and have tall cornerbacks to cover the Chargers' tall receivers. The 29th ranked defense for yards allowed per game isn't promising, and neither is being 24th in point allowed per game. KC is ranked 25th in passing yards allowed, but they have faced some pretty tough passing offenses already this season. What really gets me excited for this matchup is that Rivers may actually get the chance to throw the ball consistently without having to run for his life. KC's pass rush has yielded only 9 sacks, putting them one ranking spot better than the Bolts.

Also, and this may sound foolish, I'm expecting a big game from LaDainian Tomlinson. Essentially, LT has been healthy and used in only two games this season. I know we're 2-3, but everyone here knows how much I worry about LT's mileage. I think the rest has been good for him and I do think he looked like an effective RB against the Broncos (4th best run defense in the league). The Chiefs' are ranked 25th in terms of rushing yards allowed per game, and RBs are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against them this season. They have allowed four rushes for over 20 yards this season, which is nearly one per game and makes them 10th worst in the league for that statistic (for the record, the Charger have allowed only two 20+ yard rushes, tying them for 19th worst). I think LT is out to prove to himself, the league, the fans and especially the coaching staff that he's healthy and should be the main RB in this offense at all times. I'm not saying I'm expecting 200 yards and 3 TDs, but 100+ and a score would go a long way towards a victory.

Advantage: Chargers. This is a no-brainer. One of the better offenses in the league against one of the worst defenses in the league. Even if the Chargers' D isn't up to the task of shutting down the Chiefs' offense, the Bolts should be able to easily out-pace KC in a shootout.

With four WRs that are over 6'2", one thing that I've been looking at every week is the height of opposing CBs. The defenses that the Chargers have struggled against (Raiders, Broncos-2nd half, etc.) have been ones with at least 2 CBs of 6' or taller. If all of your CBs are 5'10" or shorter, there will be some 7" mismatches that can't be overlooked. Let's look at the Chiefs' secondary:

Not bad height on their secondary. I'm sure Rivers will attack Flowers whenever he's up against Vincent Jackson or Malcom Floyd, but that probably won't be often. Still, I think the Chargers' gameplan going into this game should be able ball control and instilling confidence back to the running game. If it's not working, Rivers can win the game by himself like he always does against the Chiefs.

Bolts & Dolts: Broncos @ Chargers

John (obviousman) — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:50:43 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

2 months ago: Denver Broncos tight end Tony Scheffler pulls in a 19-yard touchdown pass San Diego Chargers Eric Weddle (32) tries to defend during the third quarter of the NFL football game Monday, Oct. 19, 2009 in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

Browse more photos »

So I've given myself 24 hours to get over the emotions of this game, and now I'm ready bestow BFTB awards to the best and worst San Diego Chargers players of the week.

What's funny to me, about this game, is that it was the complete opposite of what we've become used to as Chargers fans. The team came out fast, clearly winning the first-half, and then were outdone in the second half as the Broncos coaches made better adjustments. An uncharacteristic game for the Bolts, but with similar results (a close loss).

The Bolts and Dolts are listed after the jump, along with their stats. Keep in mind that any players left off this list had a good game, it just wasn't a great game or a bad game.

Bolts

Offense

Philip Rivers - 20/33, 274 yds, 1 TD. Stats-wise, Philip was outdone by Kyle Orton. Also, the majority of Phil's success came in the first half. However, he spent the second half running away from pass-rushers and still managed to not make any bad throws. In short, Philip did everything we could've asked for considering what he was facing.

Offensive Playcall - 20 first downs, 311 total yds. I thought the offensive calls in the first half were brilliant. The screen to Antonio Gates and the double-screen to Mike Tolbert certainly helped keep the defense on their toes. The Chargers offense was every bit as good as the Broncos' on this day, with more first downs, about the same amount of yards and an equal time of possession. However, the Chargers' offense only put up 16 points to Denver's 20 and the Chargers went 1-for-2 in the red zone (in terms of TDs) to the Broncos' 2-for-4 success rate.

Defense

Kevin Ellison - 7 tackles. Welcome to the big-time, kid! Ellison seemed to take Clinton Hart's place in the defense, on the field for the majority of the snaps, and had great success. Not only did he lead the team in tackles, but he did a pretty good job defending Tony Sheffler most of the night.

Antonio Cromartie - 3 tackles, 2 defended passes. Cromartie first big game of the season, in my opinion. He spent less time going for picks and more time playing the receiver. Antonio covered Eddie Royal most of the night, and Royal ended with 0 catches after being thrown to 4 times. Cro had some trouble on special teams coverage, but he didn't belong out there anyways.

Larry English - 4 tackles, 1 sack. English didn't necessarily have a great game, but in his 5th game of his career he looks like the best pass rusher on the team.

Dolts

Offense

Offensive Line - 5 sacks allowed. The offensive line actually didn't play horrible, they just really miss Nick Hardwick. The line's weakness now is identifying and picking up blitzers. The Chargers ran for 3.5 yards per carry (higher than Denver's 3.1 YPC), but couldn't handle the heavy blitzing packages that Mike Nolan was throwing at them. In the end, the Broncos got a sack from an Inside Linebacker and a Cornerback in addition to Elvis Dumervil (2) and Darrell Reid.

Defense

Stephen Cooper - 4 tackles. I know, he was playing with an injury that probably should've kept him out, but Cooper was exploited by Denver's offense. They ran at him, threw at him and generally directed their offense towards him. I saw a play where Shaun Phillips slid over and played ILB with Cooper coming off the field and it didn't work much better. I really hope Cooper and Kevin Burnett can get healthy and stay healthy, because the coverage skills of the Chargers backup ILBs is a real weakness.

Pass Rush - 1 sack. Apart from English's sack, which was a second-effort play that was made because Orton held onto the ball too long, the pass rush was completely and totally non-existent. I can't blame Rivera, because he called his share of blitzes. I think the blame lies firmly on the defensive line, weakened by injuries, that cannot keep the blitzing LBs clean. Sadly, Chargers fans, I don't know if it's going to get any better.

Eric Weddle - 5 tackles. Well, we now have our reason why Weddle can never ever play the SS position: He cannot cover TEs. It was a problem last year (the name Dante Rosario sticks out) that was blamed on Hart (who was just as bad), but Weddle deserves some of the blame. Every time the Chargers lined Weddle up on Sheffler, the Broncos noticed it and attacked it. It's Rivera's job to make sure that Weddle one-on-one against a TE doesn't happen anymore.

MHR Chalk Talk - Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (Week 6, '09)

Steve Nichols — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 16:56:25 -0000

First, Denver beat the Bengals. Turns out that the Bengals are a pretty good team. Then Denver beat the Browns; no big whoop. Then the Broncos beat the Raiders. Not many of the Raider Nation even bothered to show up for it. Several folks in the media said the Cowboys would put the Broncos in their place. As soon as the Broncos won, those media heads started questioning the Cowboys. Now the hard part of the schedule starts, and the Patriots show up. Yes; Denver bopped their way past the Pats, and folks questioned just how good Brady really is.

Forget about it! Denver is for real, and "proving ourselves" was never the goal. The goal is the AFC West and a playoff berth. The Raiders know more about figure skating than football, and the Chiefs look like they just sold Manhattan for a few beads. That leaves the SD Chargers as the only threat to the Broncos and the playoffs, and this isn't the same team they were last year.

LaDainian Tomlinson at RB? How about the 32nd ranked running game in the NFL. ROLB Shawne Merriman? May never be the same player again after the knee injury. Missing the offensive center and the defense's nose tackle to injury? Priceless.

SD hasn't looked this shaken since the last earthquake. Piece of cake? No, not really. SD is at home on a Monday night, they still have Phillip Rivers, Chris Chambers, Antonio Gates, and Vincent Jackson. They are also coming off of a much needed bye week, which means rest for injuries and more time to game plan. This is not a game to get too comfortable with.

The SD Offense versus the DEN Defense

What happens when you take the worst running team in the NFL (SD avg per game - 53.8 yards) and match it with the 6th best running defense in the League?

SD has spent years relying on Tomlinson to carry the ball. Heck, the guy can run, catch, throw and block. He's the all-around, real deal of RBs. But this year, nursing a hurt ankle at age 30, Tomlinson is on track for his worst year ever. 1 TD, 1 fumble (lost), 3.5 yards per carry (his longest was only 13), 2 receptions (for a total of 1 yard), and a grand 70 yards to show for the season.

Here is what you need to know about the SD offense.

The running game is bad. Real bad.
The passing game is good. Real good. (295.5 yards per game - 2nd in the NFL).
Rivers likes to throw deep.
To throw deep, he needs time to let the receivers get deep.
Denver's pass rush is monstrously good.
SD's offensive line (from center to left tackle) isn't so hot.
SD's running game isn't going to do much to keep Denver's safeties from the deep field.

What all of this means is that the Chargers have two choices in this game. First, they have to establish a running game. This seems highly unlikely, as the match-up is just too hard to overcome. The second option would be for Rivers to create short route threats to compliment a few deep balls here and there. Enter Antonio Gates.

As always, TE Gates is a favorite target of Rivers. Gates was such a threat, that Denver used to match Bailey against him. SD countered brilliantly by bringing in Chris Chambers (WR) from the Dolphins, giving Gates room to do his thing.

In my mind, SD has three threats in the air. Chambers, Vincent Jackson, and TE Gates. As they've done against other teams this year with threats at TE, Denver will attempt to neutralize the TEs indirectly. Instead of focusing on coverage, Denver will likely go after Rivers, forcing the Chargers to keep their TE in to block. Between CBs Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman, and even Jack Williams (rising in his level of play) and rookie hot shot Alphonso Smith, Denver can cover the WR threat. If the ball gets too deep, legendary safety Brian Dawkins and safety Renaldo Hill (playing very well in his first year with Denver) should stop any deep threats.

Another quick note on the running game. SD is an odd duck, in that (unlike other teams) they prefer to run to the weak side on most plays. With the left side of the OL looking weak, this should limit LT or Darren Sproles.

SD offense - game plan

Can SD run against Denver? I don't think that they can. But if they don't at least make the effort, it can cause headaches for the passing game (and Rivers, who has been getting sacked quite a bit this year). Because SD has good depth at TE (and because they aren't so hot at the outside of the offensive line), and because they face a 3-4 defense (really a 5-2 in my opinion), SD should use a lot of 2 TE looks. To aid with the run, they should use twin TE looks (both TEs to the same side).

From this formation, they can attempt runs with extra protection to one side, or go into quick passes with those TEs. They can also set up screens for Darren Sproles, who is a major threat on STs returns and could be deadly in screen situations.

SD needs to have a credible running game, or at least a consistent, short passing game to set up the vertical passes that Rivers likes. He already faces an incredible Denver secondary, so he'll need to do everything he can to sell the short yardage game.

When passing long, Rivers will need to be in a shotgun formation (the QB further from scrimmage to buy time). The advantage for Rivers here is time to drop back and throw, but the disadvantage is that the defense will clamp down on each player lined up as a receiver. If the OL continues to play poorly, any sacks this far from scrimmage will be hard to overcome.

DEN Defense - game plan

It doesn't get old. Denver needs pressure, pressure, and more pressure. Denver's pressure and penetration is not only the reason that teams have a hard time passing against Denver, but it also causes major disruptions in the run game. With five players on the line (and with even the OLBs being true [former] DEs), Denver's defense presents pass rush and run disruption opportunities on every play. But the SD offense is particularly exposed. With the loss of center Nick Hardwick, the rest of the OL seems to be in chaos.

Denver can play man to man with the SD WRs with no problem, and leave the safeties back for over-coverage. The front five can penetrate, while the two true LBs (both leading the team in tackles) can zone the center for runs or passes over the middle.

The presence of sack-machine Elvis Dumervil is perhaps the biggest threat on the field for Denver's defense. SD will not stop him one on one, but a team can't afford to double him with four other defensive players right on the line.

The DEN Offense versus the SD Defense

What happens when the 27th run defense in the League (SD, giving up 151 yards a game) meets the 5th best run offense in the League (DEN, gaining 139 yards a game)?

Let's give Orton some credit. His QB rating is 97.4, which is slightly better than River's 90.6. Orton's only INT of the year was an end of half hail Mary throw. He played his first four games with Denver wearing a restrictive glove to protect an injured finger, and still performed like a pro. Folks call him a game manager (as if this is a derogatory term), but the correct title for Orton is "winner". Orton has a good arm (yes, the "noodle" moniker was bs). But Orton's best quality is intelligence. He's picked up a complex system very quickly, and adjusts to radical changes in game planning (and the play book) each week. So let's give the guy credit. And then....

Let's run the ball.

SD is hurting on both sides of the ball. Injuries have hurt this team, and the team is off to a slow start from many players who were considered to be play makers. But there is one threat on the field for SD that is a constant, and that is Rivers. To keep Rivers off the field, Denver should use their vaunted running game against a weak run defense. Orton is capable of beating the SD pass defense, and has a lot of weapons. SD, on the other hand, just released a safety on Wed (Clinton Hart), and there has been talk of benching CB Antonio Cromartie (a once rising player). Antoine Cason may be the answer for this team at CB. Meanwhile, Quentin Jammer will face either Brandon Marshall or Eddie Royal this week, leaving the rest of the SD DBs to deal with the other WR, plus Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Stokley (not to mention TE threats Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler).

But at least there is potential for hope in the SD secondary. The SD defensive line has looked dreadful, and the LBs have looked ordinary. It could be the decimation of the SD D-line, or it could be the defection of D-line coach Wayne Nunnely from SD to Denver. But the weakness of the SD defense is the front seven, and Denver can run at it.

Buckhalter is back at practice, and should be ready for Monday. Moreno has been looking better and better. Why not score early, then just run the ball down the Chargers' throats? There's nothing like a good running game to take the other team's fans out of a game and to wear down the opposing team (notice how Denver has looked great in the second half? That's endurance conditioning).

DEN Offense - game plan

If there is a game to run the ball, this is it. Keep the other team's biggest threat (Rivers) off the field, and match up a very good running game against a terrible run defense. Focus on running the gut to allow Orton his signature screens and quick hitches to the edges of the field. Nothing fancy here, just good old fashioned smash mouth football.

But when we DO throw the ball, Orton should stick with his bread and butter plays. No need to take chances in this game; just make the high percentage, quick throws to keep the clock going and to limit INTs. Let playmakers like Marshall and Royal make the big plays after the short catch. Against a team that isn't tackling too well, screens with downfield blockers can be deadly.

SD Defense - game plan

This team hasn't proven that they can rush the passer, nor stop the run. They also face a credible air attack from Orton. This is not a good defense.

In such situations, you take away the big plays as best you can and hope that long drives by the opposition will result in a failure to convert or a turn over. SD has good CBs, and shouldn't "waste" them in zone. The CBs may be the best part of this defense. Man the CBs, and deep zone both safeties. Dedicate one LB to manning the Denver RB, and zone the remaing LBs. It is a simplistic plan, and not a good one. But SD doesn't seem to have many options here.

SD likes to strip the ball, but they need to focus on making sound tackles for this game. What they've been doing hasn't been working.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Match-ups

(Team with advantage is in bold and italics)

Denver Offense vs SD Defense

Points - 19.8 (22nd) vs Points - 25.5 (25th)

Yards - 376.8 (6th) vs Yards - 365.8 (26th)

Pass - 237.8 (15th) vs Pass - 214.8 (12th)

Rush - 139 (5th) vs Rush - 151 (27th)

* * *

Denver Defense vs SD Offense

Points - 8.6 (1st) vs 25.2 (10th)

Yards - 252.8 (2nd) vs 349.2 (10th)

Pass - 171.8 (5th) vs 295.5 (2nd)

Rush - 81 (6th) vs 53.8 (32nd)

In summary, SD has advantages in only two areas - passing, and stopping the pass. But those advantages are small in terms of ranking and yards. (Part of the pass stats for SD may be the last quarter of the PITT game, where PITT played prevent and gave up a lot of yards and 21 points). On the other hand, Denver's advantages in other categories are much wider.

Noteworthy is that SD is losing their average game - 25.2 to 25.5 (they have no room for error in their games). Meanwhile, Denver wins their average game 19.8 to 8.6

Denver clobbers SD in running the ball and in defending the run.

Keys to the Game

Denver -

Make this a running game. Denver has a massive advantage running the ball and stopping the run. SD's only chance is Philip Rivers, and perhaps a major ST play. So...
Don't allow Sproles (or anyone else) to be a difference maker on ST.
And most of all - Pressure Rivers early, often, and hard.

San Diego -

If you want your best weapon to have a chance, you had better protect Rivers. Good protection also means you can sneak Gates out to the flats.
SD might not be able to stop the run. But they must keep it in check. Give up a few yards here and there, but don't give up a big play on the ground.
Win the turnover war. Orton may be "due" for an INT, but don't count on it. Instead, make sure you fall on anything a Denver RB or QB fumbles. You'll need those chances. Denver gets their yards in bits and pieces, and a turnover can be devastating. Don't miss any opportunity if a ball hits the ground.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SD has several things going for them. A week of rest, an extra week of prep, a good QB, and home field on a national stage. Denver has a lights out defense, a solid running game, and a mistake free passing game.

While SD won a game against OAK, it was closer than a game against OAK should be. On the other hand, they played tough against PITT, and respectable against BAL in two losses. While they are injured and not playing great football, they look to me like a team that can jump up at any moment and reassert themselves. They have good players all over the team that just don't seem to playing to their potential.

Denver, on the other hand, has beaten good teams in CIN, DAL, and NE, while brushing off CLE and OAK. If anyone wants to question how good DAL and NE are, it is in part due to their losses against DEN. CIN looks like a very good team, and Denver won a game that either would have been a TD reception by the intended receiver or (because it was tipped) a TD reception by a heads up player.

I don't believe in "trap" games. If there is such a concept, it is a fan concept and not a coaching one. Any coach that thinks that any game can be overlooked deserves to lose every game he plays. McDaniels is not the kind of coach to overlook a team. He and DC Nolan know the stakes; this is a division game. So does SD, and I fully expect a team like SD (with their backs against the wall in the AFC West race) to come out swinging. In other words, expect SD to play like SD, and not like how they've played so far.

LT hasn't been LT, but count him out at your peril. Merriman may be hurt and weakened, but if he ever brings his "A game", this is the time. If SD loses this game, they'll probably have to win out the season to get a shot at a playoff spot.

And Denver is done with silencing critics. Those who still think the Broncos are a 3-13 team have been exposed, and only make themselves look more foolish for making excuses for Denver's opponents. Denver is now playing for a good seeding in the post season, and that makes this week's game the most important game they've played so far.

I think Denver is a different team from last year, from top to bottom. We have a QB that doesn't give away games, we have a defense that shuts down anything in their path, and we have a coaching staff that gets the best out of their players week in and out. SD is also different. They were an 8-8 team last year, but cracks seem to be developing further. If SD is going to make a run at glory, this is the game of the season.

For me, I'll take Denver. The match-ups seem to favor Denver strongly, but I won't pick Denver to win big quite yet. I expect a fully loaded and prepared SD team for Monday Night Football, and I expect that there will be big plays both ways. I expect a great game that may overshadow the Saints / Giants game in terms of good play. I expect a memorable game.

Most of all, I expect 6-0 going into the bye.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I knew Denver would be a better team this year. I predicted an 8-8 record, but wrote that Denver would play much better, win or lose. I figured Denver would beat Cincy and CLE, and figured we should win one or two against OAK (nice to beat OAK in OAK). DAL was a toss-up to me during the offseason, but I thought we had a fair shot. Before the season, NE would have been a loss in my book. By the time the game came up, I called it "too close to call". I was right - the game went into overtime.

It is past time to look at what I think of the games going forward, so here it is.

SD - In the reloading season I would have called this 50/50. I think we win in SD.

BAL - Before the season - loss. Now, tough call.

PITT - Before the season - loss to SB champs. Now - win (we can exploit that OL).

WAS - Before - toss up; leans win. Now - win.

SD - Likely win.

NYG - We might be able to go toe to toe. If we do, we are (gasp!) SB contenders. For now, let's say a potential loss.

KC - Win

INDY - Along with NYG, our toughest game on the schedule.

OAK - I'm really trying hard not to laugh out loud.

PHI - This could be a tougher game than we expect.

KC - If we are in the playoffs, we might rest players at this point.

I'll say that at this point our basement should be 10 to 11 games, with 11 to 12 likely. 13 (are you listening Mike Clark?) is a real possibility. More importantly, a post season spot is probable.

Forget about "power rankings" for a moment, and consider the official rankings. According to the NFL's rankings (based on games won and official tie breaks), this is how the top six teams rank -

OFFICIAL NFL TEAM RANKS

1) Your Denver Broncos

2) Colts

3) Vikings

4) Saints

5) Giants

6) Bengals

We've beat number 6, and we still have number 5 and number 2 to go. (By the way, 9-PHI, 10-BAL, 11-DAL, 12-NE, 14 PITT).

We've played, and have left to play, teams in the top half of the League right now. Any wins we get are well-deserved, and every game is good preparation for the post season. Playoffs? PLAYOFFS? That's right Mora, I said it. Denver is going to the playoffs this year. McDaniels is not a coach that allows late season collapses. I'm calling it. Denver qualifies.

Poll

Denver...

Doesn't make playoffs

47 votes

In as a wild card or division champion

544 votes

Along with another AFC team, gets a bye in the WC round

584 votes

1175 votes | Poll has closed

Matching up with the Chargers

Emmett Smith — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 12:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

Denver Broncos coach Josh McDaniels salutes the crowd after the Broncos defeated the New England Patriots 20-17 in overtime in an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

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Living in San Diego now (up north, in Carlsbad), I've had a classic opportunity to follow and spy on the Chargers. Milling around the town, lounging on the beach, watching the newspapers and the tube analysis, as well as breaking down the games, I had a year-long chance to get a little insight into the team. I wanted to share with you some of the things that I've seen over that time. The Bolts are a walking contradiction, just as they are every year, of late. They're starting slow, they have seemed unmotivated and they're been fighting injuries. They are going to be playing for their season, though. It's a great Monday night matchup, and I'm going to enjoy it.

So saying, here's to 5-0, 6-0, and another Monday Night slugfest!

Denver vs. San Diego

This is probably one of the best opportunities that Denver will have this year. They can take this one on the road and put SD in a deep, deep hole - IF they can control the tempo of this game. I've been living in SD for 15 months now, and spying on the Chargers organization the entire time. I have a lot of respect for them. Taking them lightly will get you beaten, but Denver won't do that. In that fact, can lie the road to victory.

Let's take it one area at a time. I'm going to start where every game starts - with the Trench Warfare (dedicated to firstfan):

Denver O-line vs. the Chargers D-line.

This is one battle that I think Denver can win hands down. Again - I'm not suggesting that it will be easy, just that it's very winnable. Ryan Clady is the best in the game. Ryan Harris is healthier, Casey Wiegmann is doing fine and while I'm not excited about Russ Hochstein, I do think that he's up to the job. I also think that Chris Kuper is better than any fans (even Denver fans) give him credit for. Like most fans, I'm worried about Ben Hamilton, but I do think that he's up to this one if he plays. Perhaps he will do better at center, perhaps he's fading a bit. That's why grooming Seth Olsen makes so much sense.

On the Bolts' side of the ball, it's a different story. Jamal Williams is injured; he's also pushing 35, is gone for the year, and (in my mind) probably won't be back next season. He's most likely done, and SD didn't find anyone to get prepared and polished for this moment. Bad planning, A.J. Smith (Chargers GM). Igor Olshansky was uneven in his play and a problem in the locker room last year, so they don't miss him. However, Ryon Bingham was supposed to replace him and he's on injured reserve. Jacques Cesaire, backing up Bingham, has some injury problems of his own. A local rookie made good in Ogemdi Nwagbuo is trying to handle NT.

Luis Castillo has been uneven but can't be overlooked. Monster Vaughn Martin from Canada isn't ready for the NFL game, but he's probably the Chargers' future at NT, at least as the roster is currently set. The Chargers found a warm body in Alfonso Boone, formerly of the Chiefs. If a Chiefs castoff is your option at DL, you're in seriously deep kimchi (Note - Seoul Food, on 6th Avenue, is/was a very fine restaurant for those who like Korean cuisine). Travis Johnson, a recent Chargers acquisition from the Houston Texans, has had issues with motivation and injury; but he will now be back for Monday's game, as will all players except Center Nick Hardwick. The current plan is for Johnson to take some of the reps at NT which he played for 14 games in 2008 for Houston, although that was in a 4-3 line.

Backing up the front line on the Chargers side are the linebackers. Shawne Merriman is still trying to recover from his knee surgery. He won't be fully back until next season (and he may be working for another team by then), but he will be on the field. The rest of the Chargers LBs are good, but not stars; they brought in Kevin Burnett from Dallas, and he's played well. 1st-round draft pick Larry English will be a very good-to-great one, but not this year. Shaun Phillips, Antwan Applewhite, Stephen Cooper, Tim Dobbins, and Brandon Siler fill out the squad. Jyles Tucker spent some time injured last year, but he showed enough for the Chargers to know that he has serious potential. Even so, they aren't a bad squad, but they seem disorganized and unmotivated. The Broncos have a chance here to paste one on them.

Denver's offensive playmakers vs. Chargers secondary:

The first fact that Denver has to face is that one of the trade-offs to Kyle Orton's incredible home record is that he hasn't been as effective on the road prior to this season. That may not be a concern, since everything this year is different, but it's something to watch for. Orton's numbers are good and becoming much more so.

In fact, Orton has a better QB rating right now than Philip Rivers. He's got a much better TD/INT ratio (Orton - 7/1, Rivers - 6/3 in 1 fewer game). Orton also has an INT percentage of 0.6%; Rivers is 12th in the league at 2.0% - not bad, but not as good. Overall, Rivers is a top-5 QB -- in theory. But right now, his playmakers aren't producing like Orton's and that's affecting his numbers.

The Denver running game is better than the Chargers' front 7. Knowshon Moreno is coming into his own, and he's going to be very good indeed. LaDainian Tomlinson has been out, injured. He should be back, but even so - he's been playing like he's getting older and isn't the same. I love Darren Sproles, but he's not an all-game answer.

The Denver WRs could have a stellar day. The secondary of SD is being coached by Steve Wilks, formerly of Chicago a friend of Ron Rivera's who came over to help Ron out. The Bolts are playing in the secondary like they're being coached by Pee Wee Herman.

I speak periodically with Bolts From The Blue Contributing Editor Brian; he got his start on MHR and he's a well-informed, interesting guy who is open about sharing his knowledge. This is what he had to say about the Chargers' secondary following their loss to the Steelers...

I think it's also time to pull Cromartie for Cason; he is just a train wreck out there. And why Rivera stuck with deep zones when they were eating us alive underneath, I have no clue. I still have a lot of belief in the linebackers, but time will tell. We have almost no sacks; from AJ's perspective he is losing a ton of talent this year and these guys look to be mailing it in sometimes. I guess that is the heart of it; they perform exceptionally in spots and weakly in others, it is strange considering how many could be making a play for a starting job.

I don't have a lot to add. He's pretty much nailed it. Eric Weddle was laid out by the Steelers, Clinton Hart was doing so-so but the Chargers released him Wednesday in a surprise move in order to add DT Ian Scott. Antonio Cromartie looks terrible. Steve Gregory is playing alright, but this isn't a group that inspires confidence. At this point, they claim that they're still not sure who will start in Hart's place, but 6th round pick Kevin Ellison is one option. When you consider that they aren't stopping the run effectively and that the line isn't bringing pressure to stop the pass, this could be a long day for the Chargers defense.

Chargers offense against the Denver defense:

Philip Rivers is always dangerous; in fact, he's the only reason that SD is in the race at all. The Chargers O-line has been porous and despite his relative mobility, Rivers has been sacked 10 times in 4 games. His QB rating is down to 90.2 after a year's rating of 105.5 last year. It's mostly because of the O-line, and I'll get to that in a moment.

But there is a strength that I haven't discussed for the Chargers. Before the season I was talking to Brian, of Bolts from the Blue; he noted that Rivers had a lot of skills and strengths, but that he just hadn't mastered the long ball yet. His deep passes were a weakness that other teams could exploit. That's not at all so anymore. Rivers has completed 16 passes of 20 yards or longer, with 4 surpassing 40 yards; both place him among the NFL's leaders despite having been on bye last week.

Look for Rivers to throw mostly out of the shotgun. After going from the shotgun on 16 of his 39 drops (41%) at Oakland Week 1, Rivers was in the shotgun 29 times in 47 drops (62%) against the Ravens and 27 times in 35 drops (77%) against the Dolphins. Rivers needs the extra time since his line has been so weak. The Broncos secondary has been strong thus far; this could be their toughest challenge yet.

Trench Warfare:

LT Marcus McNeill had two surgeries during the offseason. LG Kris Dielman went to his second Pro Bowl last season - he's very good. They did lose C Nick Hardwick until at least November, and he's been replaced by Scott Mruczkowski. They cut Mike Goff at right guard (who then went on to infect Kansas City) and replaced him by drafting Louis Vasquez, who has fought injuries as a rookie but should play Monday. Jerome Clary is uneven at right tackle, and Elvis Dumervil may snack on him as the game wears on. In fact, I do not believe that the Chargers can stand up to our DL over the course of a full game. That is probably our ace in the hole. Like All QBs, Rivers can get frustrated if he's harassed.

Expect the Chargers to feature their TEs and use more max protection Monday. Antonio Gates is still strong and effective, and the Chargers have two young talents in Brandon Manumaleuna and Kris Wilson who are perfect for their roles. Both are good blockers, can run routes, go in motion, and confound opposing defensive coordinators. I see the tight ends as one of the Chargers' biggest strengths.

On the other side of the ball is a Denver group that doesn't have a single well-known household name, but they play like unbridled fury. Ronald Fields and Marcus Thomas are splitting time at NT, and both look good. The starting ends have been surprising players - Ryan McBean (formerly of the Steelers practice squad) and Kenny Peterson, and they are rotated with Vonnie Holliday. Le Kevin Smith isn't back from his knee injury fully, but he is a solid backup. The front seven is rounded out with a big group of linebackers. Elvis 'Doom' Dumervil and Mario Haggan are backed by Darrell Reid and Robert Ayers. At ILB, D.J. Williams and Andra Davis are leading the team in tackles. This isn't an even contest - the Broncos have the advantage across the board. I expect them to notch a few sacks on Rivers. If they can harass him into mistakes, this could turn ugly for the Bolts.

Rushing to Victory

I believe that the Chargers are in trouble here. Tomlinson has already been injured. He's dangerous if he's healthy this Monday, as is predicted, but he's not the player he once was. Like the team overall, I don't recommend underestimating LDT, but he can be stopped, especially behind that line. The Chargers have a potent weapon in Darren Sproles on kickoffs and in relief of LDT. Michael Bennett is also an option. They Chargers surprised me by cutting Gartrell Johnson, who only had one good game in preseason but was a 4th round pick: I believe that admits indicates sloppy drafting.They can hurt Denver here, but the O-line has to step up for that to happen.

On the other hand, Knowshon Moreno is coming into his own and is running behind a very good Denver O-line, which is bad news for the rest of the league. My only concerns with Knowshon were that he might be a little light for the league - he's put in the time in the weight room to counteract that and will continue to get tougher, and that I honestly didn't know if he was the kind of player that Bobby Turner wanted. I wasn't convinced that he wasn't, just interested to see what Denver thought. Could he pick up and play within the system? The answer to both questions is a resounding "Yes". Correll Buckhalter may be back, which would make the game easier. I'm disappointed in Peyton Hillis so far, and LaMont Jordan is a good back for running out the clock and a very good receiver, but his minutes will be limited. The Broncos are near the top of the league in rushing with 139 yards per game and have a nice average of 4.6 YPA. They will be hard to stop and the Chargers haven't been great at stopping the run.

Slow Starts:

What is it with the slow starts in San Diego? Ever since Norv Turner came to town, the trend has been to stink up the beginning of the year and to firm up later. With the Broncos coming into the game undefeated, that just won't cut it in the AFC West. The Bolts need to wake up NOW if they are to have any chance at all in the division, much less in the playoffs.

I did a little checking, and it seems that historically the Chargers have had recurring issues in this regard. In fact, they are the only team since 1970 to make the playoffs after a 0-4 start, having managed that in 1992 (Final regular season record, 11-5 that year). At 2-2, they aren't in that kind of trouble, but unless they pull themselves together, they soon will be.

That's the big potential trap here - the Chargers have had two weeks to game-plan, which puts them almost even with an 8-day Josh McDaniels plan. They are at home, they are coming off a bye week, and they are fighting for the season. A loss at this point could end their Super Bowl aspirations for the year. They may be a very tough team on Monday night; but they are still, without question, vulnerable. Unless they can really put a lot of points on the board early, the Denver defense will probably shut them down in the second half.

A last point on SD:

I've been hearing from some intelligent Chargers fans that there "wasn't anyone out there who could have an impact at NT (and a few other positions)". I've had to bite my tongue before casually asking if they'd looked at Ron Fields lately. The fact is, there were good players at many of the positions that SD now needs sitting out there this past offseason. You can get a good look at most of them on the Broncos roster next Monday night. Blame this one firmly on A.J. Smith, who was too smart for his own good this time.

With all of these factors in mind, this has the makings of another great game. SD will be highly motivated - they're at home, the numbers favor them becuase they're coming off a bye at home and they know that their season may well rest on this game. That and their offense (other than the line) are concerns.

The Broncos, on the other hand, will be prepared.They will be well aware of the dangers. They will be recipients of the McDaniels/Nolan game plans. We have the same offense that has scored when ever it had to and which is looking to break the habit of starting slowly. They can - they know each other better each week. SD isn't, frankly, as good as New England. Could we drop emotionally. Honestly, not on Monday Night Football. I see that as a small benefit - our guys are given a chance to prove, on national and international TV, who they are.

They will. Broncos over the Bolts, 27-24. Rivers has a good night, Doom gets a couple of sacks and Orton continues to do his job and do it well. How's that for playing it safe?

Go Broncos!

Quick followup on the 49ers strong safety position

Fooch — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 03:43:18 -0000

Earlier today the Chargers released starting strong safety Clinton Hart. Given Michael Lewis's concussion last weekend, folks were quick to start inquiring about the 49ers acquiring Hart. So, I thought I'd take advantage of modern technology and get some answers. For those who haven't used Twitter, you can send people messages to which they can respond on their own Twitter page. Matt Maiocco has been good in answering folks questions when they tweet them over to him, so I thought I'd shoot him a tweet:

Haven't heard a thing. SS Michael Lewis expected to be back soon. RT @NinersNation Is SF going to talk to recently released Clinton Hart?
14 minutes ago from web

Maiocco had some more details in his bye week injury report post earlier today:

Singletary said Lewis' concussion symptoms cleared quickly on Sunday. He has experienced three concussions since mid-August, so the 49ers are taking no chances, Singletary said.

"(Lewis) was ready to go; he could've played," Singletary said. "Twenty years ago he would've been smelling smelling salts and been back in the game. But that wasn't the case."

Next week will be especially interesting in determining what we can expect from Lewis going forward. We had discussions about this on Monday, but given this updated information I thought it was worth bringing it back up. Oh, and for those who want Hart, Rotoworld had some interesting comments:

Bolts GM A.J. Smith doesn't make many personnel mistakes, but handing Hart a six-year, $18M extension in 2008 was one of them. Hart simply couldn't cover anyone, loved biting on play-action fakes, and completely lost his confidence. Steve Gregory and rookie Kevin Ellison are options to step in.

SS Clinton Hart Released by the San Diego Chargers

John (obviousman) — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 01:17:05 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall, right, runs past San Diego Chargers safety Clinton Hart on his longest run of the game in the second half of the NFL football game in Pittsburgh, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009. The Steelers won 38-28. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

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The Associated Press: Chargers release Hart, sign Scott
The Chargers released starting strong safety Clinton Hart on Wednesday in order to sign defensive tackle Ian Scott. The Chargers need depth on the defensive line due to the loss of tackle Jamal Williams, out for the season with a triceps injury.

Chargers cut Hart, sign DT Ian Scott
With an ailing and struggling defensive line and a key Monday Night matchup with Denver fast-approaching, the Chargers signed free agent defensive tackle Ian Scott on Wednesday.

The five-year veteran has 95 tackles and two sacks in a career spent mostly with the Chicago Bears. He was a member of the Chargers roster for four games in 2008 but saw limited action.

To make room for Scott, San Diego cut Clinton Hart, who has started 33 games at safety since 2007. He has 16 tackles in four games for a unit that ranks 12th against the pass and has come under a great deal of criticism.

Chargers cut starting safety Hart | ProFootballTalk.com
Hart doesn't have a big name, but he's started 33 out of the 34 games he's played since 2007, so the move should resonate on a defense where there are a number of jobs reportedly up for grabs.

Twitter / S.D. U-T Chargers
Don't sleep on Paul Oliver. Not saying he's going to the Pro Bowl, just that I think you're gonna see more of him -- ka

If I Were the San Diego Chargers' GM: Q1 Review

John (obviousman) — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 17:08:32 -0000

More photos » by Jack Smith - AP

Being the Chargers GM must be awesome. (AP Photo/Jack Smith)

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My greatest love, as it pertains to football, is personnel. Even during an entertaining, late season game my brain can't help from scouting the players on my screen and thinking about improvements that need to be made to the roster. Even in the very early stages of an unpredictable season, I love nothing more than to throw my GM hat on and pretend I'm A.J. Smith.

I have two dream jobs. Well, three I guess. Number one would be playing Quarterback in the NFL. However, I'm about 4 inches shorter than Drew Brees and 9 inches shorter than Philip Rivers, so that might be hard. I will admit that I've always been an accurate passer in my backyard and even won my wife a stuffed duck on one of those boardwalk games where you have to hit the target inside of the swinging tire. Still, that one ain't happening.

My second dream job would be as GM in the NFL. This is the reason I look through stats endlessly and the reason I've read Ernie Accorsi's book twice already. If I could one day be the GM of any NFL team, I think I'd skip everywhere instead of walking. Also, I'd do it for free.

My third dream job I'm practically doing. It would be to write about the San Diego Chargers. To share my passion and contribute words to the world that are appreciated, even if it's by a small group of people.

So while writing about it, I'm going to be doing quarterly looks ahead to see the potential holes in the roster in 2010 and to tel you what I would do if I were Mr. Smith. My first attempt at this is after the jump.

Free Agents

Team FAs

Since I don't want to write this post two different ways every time I do it, let's go off the assumption that there will be a new CBA in place by time free agency rolls around. Here's who the Chargers are at risk of losing:

Who to Keep

Vincent Jackson
Brandon Manumaleuna
Marcus McNeill
Tim Dobbins

Look, the WR situation is not as bad as it might seem. Where will we find the money to pay VJ? Simple. We'll give him Chambers' money. Chris is one of the top 20 WRs in the league in terms of base salary. Moving that money over to Jackson, plus VJ's current salary and a little extra, should be enough to keep this dynamic WR in San Diego for another 5 years as least. That's a move that I would do as GM.

Manumaleuna can be kept because he'd probably be cheap. He's an effective blocking TE who can fill in at OT or FB in a pinch. Unless somebody else falls in love with Dobbins, I'd keep him around for run support, depth and his special teams prowess. McNeill is kept because he's an adequate LT that has tremendous potential. It's really hard to find a good LT these days and even harder to try to play without one.

Merriman can go because his price tag is too high. The team cannot afford to be paying starter's money to 3 OLBs. Also, the Chargers could do worse than having Antwan Applewhite and Jyles Tucker as the backups. I'd like to keep Osgood, but don't see him staying. Somebody that likes tall receivers (Bengals?) will give him a chance to catch balls and he'll be gone. Chambers, Sproles and Whitehurst will all cost much more than they're worth on the free agent market.

It would probably cause too many issues to slap the franchise tag onto Merriman. He wouldn't want to play on the one-year deal, he'll feel he's getting underpaid, etc. etc. I'd personally go without a franchised player in 2010.

Roster Holes

The 2009 offseason was the first in a few years where there was legitimate holes on the roster. As of right now, I don't know that the team did a very good job of filling all of those holes. In 2010, those same weaknesses exist along with new ones.

Running Back - The bad news is that LT can't take the beating of a starting RB in the NFL anymore. The good news is that his restructured contract makes him cheap enough that he could be the second option in the ground game without killing the cap.

Trying to buy a running back as a free agent is absurd, unless you find a diamond in the rough (like Priest Holmes). It's even harder when there's only a couple of decent free agents RBs. After this season, the only RBs that might become free agents (they could still sign a contract with their current team) that have any starting experience are LenDale White, Pierre Thomas, Chester Taylor, Willie Parker and Le'Ron McClain. Jerious Norwood is an intriguing name, although he hasn't started much at all since being drafted. I don't think any of these guys are worth the money that they're going to get, so I point my eyes towards the draft.

I think it is absolutely, 100% necessary to use the Chargers 2010 first round draft pick on a running back that can start immediately. Unfortunately, this draft class currently looks thin at RB. Perhaps it's just too early. Even so, I have my eye on Clemson's C.J. Spiller and from the looks of it he might want the chance to apprentice under Tomlinson.

Strong Safety - From what I've seen, Kevin Ellison is not the answer at Strong Safety. He's the Brandon Siler of that position. He's a strong, big hitter than is good against the run but will get burned if he has to cover anybody downfield. I don't think Clinton Hart or Steve Gregory are good enough that I feel secure in having either of them as my starting SS in 2010.

I'm very intrigued with C.J. Spillman as an option here. He was very fast and hit really hard during the preseason. He reminded me of Melvin Bullitt, who I am a big fan of. I'm hopeful that the only reason he's listed as a FS and saw time their in the preseason is because the team liked what they saw from both him and Ellison and did not want them competing for the third SS job. If I was A.J. Smith, I have a meeting with Norv Turner and Ron Rivera and ask them point blank of Spillman is a viable option to start at SS before I make any other moves.

Let's assume they say no. "There's nobody on the roster we're excited about starting at SS." Well, let's see what else is out there. The aforementioned Melvin Bullitt (RFA) is part of a strong class of free agent Strong Safeties that also includes Atari Bigby, Abram Elam, Dawan Landry and Brodney Pool. These guys may cost more than trying to find a decent SS through the draft, but with more important needs to fill with rookies I think the Free Agent route would be the one to take. Any of those 5 guys mentioned, with the possible exception of Brodney Pool, would be a great improvement over Hart and Gregory.

Defensive Tackle - I originally thought this position was a HUGE need, but it may not be by the end of this season. If Ogemdi Nwagbuo and Vaughn Martin both show improvement during the season, to the point where they could both be competent starters on the defensive line, then the Chargers have incredible depth in 2010. That would leave them with 5 legitimate starters (Nwagbuo, Martin, Luis Castillo, Jamal Williams, Jacques Cesaire) and no need for anyone beyond that besides maybe Ryon Bingham.

If neither of them pan-out, the Chargers will continue to look for a young replacement for Jamal Williams. There are plenty of good DTs in the 2009 draft class, including 365 lb. Terrence Cody, so that would be the way to go there. As for right now, Shaun Rogers would be someone that I would inquire about but it would cause problems for the future of the defensive line. Rogers is signed for 5 seasons after 2009, and considering the Chargers would have to give up at least a first round draft pick to get him they would not be eager to dump him once Jamal Williams came back or one of the young kids started to show promise. That means they would have to give up on J-Will, OG and/or Martin and I don't think they're ready to do any of that. If I'm A.J. Smith, I'd like to stand pat and see how the young kids play for the rest of the season. However, the idea of Rogers pushing the line around with Nwagbuo subbing in and Martin playing backup DE seems like one I'd have to jump on if the price was right.

Center - This one kindof kills me. After talking with him at training camp, I can say that Nick Hardwick is one of the nicest people I've ever met. Not one of the nicest Chargers or nicest football players, nicest people. I also think he's a fantastic Center when he's able to stay healthy. I just think the Chargers need a better backup plan for when he gets injured.

Tyronne Green brought some hope. He was a very good OG at Auburn, and they hoped to turn him into the backup Center. Considering he's the 3rd Center and probably the 5th Guard, it's safe to say this pick has yet to pan out. If he shows something before next season, great. He can be a solid Center and nobody else is needed. If he shows nothing, he needs to be cut and a legitimate Center needs to be drafted. It's damn near impossible to find a decent Center as a free agent because of how valuable they are to each team's offensive line.

Summary

It's obviously not a full plan, but there's direction there. Sign Vincent Jackson to the contract he's worth. Scout every college RB in the country. Aggressively pursue the free agent Strong Safeties. Make a decision to trade for a NT or put your confidence in Nwagbuo and Martin for the future. Find a real Center to backup Hardwick. The rest will fall into place as the season goes along, and I hope some of these weaknesses turn into strengths. Right now, that's what I would focus on if I were the General Manager of the San Diego Chargers.