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Bolts & Dolts: Bengals at Chargers

John (obviousman) — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 12:21:04 -0000

3 days ago: Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer is caught by San Diego Chargers safety Kevin Ellison for a ten yard loss in the first quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 20, 2009 in San Diego. (AP Photo/Chris Park)

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Alright, we're doing it a little different this week. I'm doing Bolts & Dolts without re-watching the game, because this is a team/game/post driven by emotion, and after re-watching I may come back and add or change something. S'alright? S'alright.

First, the game. This game ranks up there with the Giants game for me. It's an opponent of equal talent, and a lot of times in the past the Chargers have lost to teams that are just as good as them by not doing the little things. This season, through plenty of adversity (namely, injuries), the team has continued to do the little things that keep you in the game and give you a chance to win the game at the end. Because of that, today's first Bolt might be the most well-deserved one ever.

Bolts

Norv Turner. There's this recurring conversation I seem to have with my friends and family every year about Norv Turner. In a nutshell, the conversation is "The team just doesn't seem ready to play at the beginning of the season or at the beginning of games. That's coaching." Sure, fine, although the team has been much better this season at starting off games strong.

However, that's negative thinking. Three straight division titles, nine straight wins and seventeen straight wins in December (not all of thus under Turner, but still). That's coaching too. Three straight seasons where the team has started slow and could've quit on him but never did, that takes coaching. No coach is unblemished, and with Norv the good certainly outweighs the bad. I'm not ready to declare Norv the greatest Chargers coach ever, but if you look at where he is now it's hard to argue that he's not on his way to getting there.

Offense

Philip Rivers - 24/38, 308 yds, 3 TDs, 2 INTs. Only Philip would be able to manage a 92.9 QB Rating in a game in which he was picked off twice. This is why he's the active leader in QB Rating. It wasn't the best game for him, but he sporadically had some perfect throws and (as usual) came alive to save the day in the fourth quarter. His MVP resume is getting stronger while Brett Favre's is getting weaker.

LaDainian Tomlinson - 117 all-purpose yds, 3.7 YPC. It was a very efficient day for LT. He was used in the passing game when the Bengals were focused too much on the receivers, and he looked strong in the running game (as did the offensive line) nearly all game. It wasn't dominating, but it was efficient. By the way, has LT ever smiled this much in one season? He looks like he's having a ball this year.

Vincent Jackson - 5 catches, 108 yds, 2 TDs. First it was VJ that was free because of Antonio Gates, then it was Gates that was open because of VJ. Now, and credit Norv Turner for this, the team has found a perfect balance of both. Defenses have to find a way to cover both guys on every play otherwise there's going to be a big play. Credit Vincent for fighting through the little bit of adversity he's faced this year and coming back alive right when the team needed him most.

Antonio Gates - 4 catches, 33 yds, TD. Simply put, the best receiving TE in football. He cannot be covered by a CB, LB or most NFL Safeties. Unless you have somebody like Troy Polamalu or Tyvon Branch, be prepared to double-team Gates on just about every play. Gates almost lost his Bolt when he dropped the ball into Keith Rivers hands, but that ball was thrown behind him.

Malcom Floyd - 4 catches, 63 yds. I originally had Floyd down in the "Almost Bolts" and then realized that he had a better game than Gates (or at least close to it). I love how Malcom has become Philip's new favorite 3rd down target, and I love how there's never any doubt that he caught the ball if he's gotten his hands on it.

Floyd is a free-agent after this season, and a few days ago somebody said they thought another team would spend too much money on him and he wouldn't be back next season. I hope, for the sake of Philip Rivers and Malcom Floyd, that's inaccurate. These guys have been together since the start of their careers, creating chemistry on the 2nd string team in practice, and bring out the best in each other.

Defense

Tim Dobbins - 11 tackles, 1 forced fumble. Yes, yes, that was me saying "Dobbins sucks" in the first half. The truth is, the Chargers played Dobbins a lot because he's great against the run. The Bengals did the right thing in calling pass plays that would force him into coverage, where he's not-so-good. His tackle numbers are half because he was very good against the run and half because he was tackling his receiver after giving the guy an easy catch. What earned him a Bolt was getting the closest thing to a turnover on the most important play of the game.

Eric Weddle - 8 tackles. Great to see Weddle hasn't lost anything in his two weeks off. He was still in the middle of every play, and providing great downfield coverage.

Kevin Ellison - 6 tackles, 1 sack. I love Ellison's size. When the Bengals put a TE/RB out wide, Ellison always lined up with him in man coverage. He has the speed to stay with them, and the strength to give them a big bump on the line. I haven't seen him playing a lot of zone coverage (that seems to be Oliver's specialty), but in man he's stellar. I think he's earned the starting SS spot for 2010.

Defensive Line. Okay, none of them were really demanding a double-team (which is why the pass-rush was non-existent) so they weren't a huge help in rushing the QB. However, they were stellar at stopping the run. Alfonso Boone, Travis Johnson and Vaughn Martin each had periods of the game where they dominated their section of the line. If you take away the two "cut-back" runs (27 yards for Larry Johnson, 26 yards for Chad Ochocinco), the rushing numbers look significantly better. Holding Cedric Benson to just 53 yards (and no TDs) is something to be congratulated for.

Special Teams

Nate Kaeding - 2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs. Was there even any doubt? There wasn't for me. The second Malcom Floyd caught that ball and put the Chargers on the 35 yard line, I knew they had won the game. Just as Gates is the best receiving TE in football (and arguably the best overall), Kaeding is the most accurate kicker in football (and arguably the best overall). Lucky for the Chargers, both guys are having career years at the same time.

Dolts

Offense

There were no offensive Dolts this week.

Defense

There were no defensive Dolts this week.]

Almost Bolts

Mike Scifres - The Bengals had time for one more drive to win or tie the game. Scifres punts, his gunners are blocked, and the ball still goes out of bounds on it's own at the Cincinnati 5 yard line. Any time you can force a team to go 95 yards to score the winning TD, you're making it very difficult for them. He would've been the hero of the game if the Bengals didn't go down the field and tie it.

Quentin Jammer - Jammer is one of the first plays that could've been a Bolt or a Dolt. His interception against Chad Ochocinco was beautiful, but overshadowed in my mind by the numerous times he was beaten on out routes. His goal-line play against the Bengals TE at the end of the game was a big reason why the Chargers won, but what will stick out to people is the easy interception that went through his hands on the previous play. It certainly wasn't Jammer's best game, but he responded well to being thrown at (which doesn't happen often).

Kris Wilson - Jeff will be able to better point this out in his post later this week, but I thought the team really came alive on Wilson's catch. For those that didn't see it, Kris has his helmet torn off and kept fighting for the extra yard. It got to the point where the defender literally pulled Wilson down by the back of his head (it looked like a for-sure neck injury), and Kris popped right back up with an angry stare. This all happened about a foot in front of the Chargers sideline, which went bananas after the play.

I like Wilson's toughness, blocking and soft hands. This is probably way too early, but I could see him replacing Brandon Manumaleuna next season as the team's backup TE/FB.

Kassim Osgood - Not just the best special team player in the league, but quite possibly the smartest. Nobody knows special teams better than him, and nobody works harder at it. I know it's not possible, but I really hope he's wearing a bolt on his helmet next season.

Almost Dolts

Steve Gregory - Just like Tim Dobbins, Gregory was targeted and thrown at all day. The Bengals were smart enough to not throw short-passes at his receivers, because that's Steve's specialty, and instead hit the receiver at the point where they've gotten past Gregory but before they've gotten to the safeties. It was a good gameplan that the Bolts are sure to see more of going forward. Unlike Dobbins, Gregory wasn't able to stand out with any big plays.

Pass Rush - I've been over this, but I'll go over it again. 2 sacks is not enough, but this is not the fault of Shawne Merriman, Shaun Phillips or Larry English. The defensive line needs to cause more of a disturbance for the QB when he's sliding up in the pocket. I think we may see more of Vaughn Martin in the next couple of weeks because, even though he's still not great or very consistent, there were times where he was pushing around offensive linemen like they were children. If he can force offenses to pay attention to him, you'll see the OLBs racking up the sacks in droves once again.

Matching up with the Chargers

Emmett Smith — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 12:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

Denver Broncos coach Josh McDaniels salutes the crowd after the Broncos defeated the New England Patriots 20-17 in overtime in an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

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Living in San Diego now (up north, in Carlsbad), I've had a classic opportunity to follow and spy on the Chargers. Milling around the town, lounging on the beach, watching the newspapers and the tube analysis, as well as breaking down the games, I had a year-long chance to get a little insight into the team. I wanted to share with you some of the things that I've seen over that time. The Bolts are a walking contradiction, just as they are every year, of late. They're starting slow, they have seemed unmotivated and they're been fighting injuries. They are going to be playing for their season, though. It's a great Monday night matchup, and I'm going to enjoy it.

So saying, here's to 5-0, 6-0, and another Monday Night slugfest!

Denver vs. San Diego

This is probably one of the best opportunities that Denver will have this year. They can take this one on the road and put SD in a deep, deep hole - IF they can control the tempo of this game. I've been living in SD for 15 months now, and spying on the Chargers organization the entire time. I have a lot of respect for them. Taking them lightly will get you beaten, but Denver won't do that. In that fact, can lie the road to victory.

Let's take it one area at a time. I'm going to start where every game starts - with the Trench Warfare (dedicated to firstfan):

Denver O-line vs. the Chargers D-line.

This is one battle that I think Denver can win hands down. Again - I'm not suggesting that it will be easy, just that it's very winnable. Ryan Clady is the best in the game. Ryan Harris is healthier, Casey Wiegmann is doing fine and while I'm not excited about Russ Hochstein, I do think that he's up to the job. I also think that Chris Kuper is better than any fans (even Denver fans) give him credit for. Like most fans, I'm worried about Ben Hamilton, but I do think that he's up to this one if he plays. Perhaps he will do better at center, perhaps he's fading a bit. That's why grooming Seth Olsen makes so much sense.

On the Bolts' side of the ball, it's a different story. Jamal Williams is injured; he's also pushing 35, is gone for the year, and (in my mind) probably won't be back next season. He's most likely done, and SD didn't find anyone to get prepared and polished for this moment. Bad planning, A.J. Smith (Chargers GM). Igor Olshansky was uneven in his play and a problem in the locker room last year, so they don't miss him. However, Ryon Bingham was supposed to replace him and he's on injured reserve. Jacques Cesaire, backing up Bingham, has some injury problems of his own. A local rookie made good in Ogemdi Nwagbuo is trying to handle NT.

Luis Castillo has been uneven but can't be overlooked. Monster Vaughn Martin from Canada isn't ready for the NFL game, but he's probably the Chargers' future at NT, at least as the roster is currently set. The Chargers found a warm body in Alfonso Boone, formerly of the Chiefs. If a Chiefs castoff is your option at DL, you're in seriously deep kimchi (Note - Seoul Food, on 6th Avenue, is/was a very fine restaurant for those who like Korean cuisine). Travis Johnson, a recent Chargers acquisition from the Houston Texans, has had issues with motivation and injury; but he will now be back for Monday's game, as will all players except Center Nick Hardwick. The current plan is for Johnson to take some of the reps at NT which he played for 14 games in 2008 for Houston, although that was in a 4-3 line.

Backing up the front line on the Chargers side are the linebackers. Shawne Merriman is still trying to recover from his knee surgery. He won't be fully back until next season (and he may be working for another team by then), but he will be on the field. The rest of the Chargers LBs are good, but not stars; they brought in Kevin Burnett from Dallas, and he's played well. 1st-round draft pick Larry English will be a very good-to-great one, but not this year. Shaun Phillips, Antwan Applewhite, Stephen Cooper, Tim Dobbins, and Brandon Siler fill out the squad. Jyles Tucker spent some time injured last year, but he showed enough for the Chargers to know that he has serious potential. Even so, they aren't a bad squad, but they seem disorganized and unmotivated. The Broncos have a chance here to paste one on them.

Denver's offensive playmakers vs. Chargers secondary:

The first fact that Denver has to face is that one of the trade-offs to Kyle Orton's incredible home record is that he hasn't been as effective on the road prior to this season. That may not be a concern, since everything this year is different, but it's something to watch for. Orton's numbers are good and becoming much more so.

In fact, Orton has a better QB rating right now than Philip Rivers. He's got a much better TD/INT ratio (Orton - 7/1, Rivers - 6/3 in 1 fewer game). Orton also has an INT percentage of 0.6%; Rivers is 12th in the league at 2.0% - not bad, but not as good. Overall, Rivers is a top-5 QB -- in theory. But right now, his playmakers aren't producing like Orton's and that's affecting his numbers.

The Denver running game is better than the Chargers' front 7. Knowshon Moreno is coming into his own, and he's going to be very good indeed. LaDainian Tomlinson has been out, injured. He should be back, but even so - he's been playing like he's getting older and isn't the same. I love Darren Sproles, but he's not an all-game answer.

The Denver WRs could have a stellar day. The secondary of SD is being coached by Steve Wilks, formerly of Chicago a friend of Ron Rivera's who came over to help Ron out. The Bolts are playing in the secondary like they're being coached by Pee Wee Herman.

I speak periodically with Bolts From The Blue Contributing Editor Brian; he got his start on MHR and he's a well-informed, interesting guy who is open about sharing his knowledge. This is what he had to say about the Chargers' secondary following their loss to the Steelers...

I think it's also time to pull Cromartie for Cason; he is just a train wreck out there. And why Rivera stuck with deep zones when they were eating us alive underneath, I have no clue. I still have a lot of belief in the linebackers, but time will tell. We have almost no sacks; from AJ's perspective he is losing a ton of talent this year and these guys look to be mailing it in sometimes. I guess that is the heart of it; they perform exceptionally in spots and weakly in others, it is strange considering how many could be making a play for a starting job.

I don't have a lot to add. He's pretty much nailed it. Eric Weddle was laid out by the Steelers, Clinton Hart was doing so-so but the Chargers released him Wednesday in a surprise move in order to add DT Ian Scott. Antonio Cromartie looks terrible. Steve Gregory is playing alright, but this isn't a group that inspires confidence. At this point, they claim that they're still not sure who will start in Hart's place, but 6th round pick Kevin Ellison is one option. When you consider that they aren't stopping the run effectively and that the line isn't bringing pressure to stop the pass, this could be a long day for the Chargers defense.

Chargers offense against the Denver defense:

Philip Rivers is always dangerous; in fact, he's the only reason that SD is in the race at all. The Chargers O-line has been porous and despite his relative mobility, Rivers has been sacked 10 times in 4 games. His QB rating is down to 90.2 after a year's rating of 105.5 last year. It's mostly because of the O-line, and I'll get to that in a moment.

But there is a strength that I haven't discussed for the Chargers. Before the season I was talking to Brian, of Bolts from the Blue; he noted that Rivers had a lot of skills and strengths, but that he just hadn't mastered the long ball yet. His deep passes were a weakness that other teams could exploit. That's not at all so anymore. Rivers has completed 16 passes of 20 yards or longer, with 4 surpassing 40 yards; both place him among the NFL's leaders despite having been on bye last week.

Look for Rivers to throw mostly out of the shotgun. After going from the shotgun on 16 of his 39 drops (41%) at Oakland Week 1, Rivers was in the shotgun 29 times in 47 drops (62%) against the Ravens and 27 times in 35 drops (77%) against the Dolphins. Rivers needs the extra time since his line has been so weak. The Broncos secondary has been strong thus far; this could be their toughest challenge yet.

Trench Warfare:

LT Marcus McNeill had two surgeries during the offseason. LG Kris Dielman went to his second Pro Bowl last season - he's very good. They did lose C Nick Hardwick until at least November, and he's been replaced by Scott Mruczkowski. They cut Mike Goff at right guard (who then went on to infect Kansas City) and replaced him by drafting Louis Vasquez, who has fought injuries as a rookie but should play Monday. Jerome Clary is uneven at right tackle, and Elvis Dumervil may snack on him as the game wears on. In fact, I do not believe that the Chargers can stand up to our DL over the course of a full game. That is probably our ace in the hole. Like All QBs, Rivers can get frustrated if he's harassed.

Expect the Chargers to feature their TEs and use more max protection Monday. Antonio Gates is still strong and effective, and the Chargers have two young talents in Brandon Manumaleuna and Kris Wilson who are perfect for their roles. Both are good blockers, can run routes, go in motion, and confound opposing defensive coordinators. I see the tight ends as one of the Chargers' biggest strengths.

On the other side of the ball is a Denver group that doesn't have a single well-known household name, but they play like unbridled fury. Ronald Fields and Marcus Thomas are splitting time at NT, and both look good. The starting ends have been surprising players - Ryan McBean (formerly of the Steelers practice squad) and Kenny Peterson, and they are rotated with Vonnie Holliday. Le Kevin Smith isn't back from his knee injury fully, but he is a solid backup. The front seven is rounded out with a big group of linebackers. Elvis 'Doom' Dumervil and Mario Haggan are backed by Darrell Reid and Robert Ayers. At ILB, D.J. Williams and Andra Davis are leading the team in tackles. This isn't an even contest - the Broncos have the advantage across the board. I expect them to notch a few sacks on Rivers. If they can harass him into mistakes, this could turn ugly for the Bolts.

Rushing to Victory

I believe that the Chargers are in trouble here. Tomlinson has already been injured. He's dangerous if he's healthy this Monday, as is predicted, but he's not the player he once was. Like the team overall, I don't recommend underestimating LDT, but he can be stopped, especially behind that line. The Chargers have a potent weapon in Darren Sproles on kickoffs and in relief of LDT. Michael Bennett is also an option. They Chargers surprised me by cutting Gartrell Johnson, who only had one good game in preseason but was a 4th round pick: I believe that admits indicates sloppy drafting.They can hurt Denver here, but the O-line has to step up for that to happen.

On the other hand, Knowshon Moreno is coming into his own and is running behind a very good Denver O-line, which is bad news for the rest of the league. My only concerns with Knowshon were that he might be a little light for the league - he's put in the time in the weight room to counteract that and will continue to get tougher, and that I honestly didn't know if he was the kind of player that Bobby Turner wanted. I wasn't convinced that he wasn't, just interested to see what Denver thought. Could he pick up and play within the system? The answer to both questions is a resounding "Yes". Correll Buckhalter may be back, which would make the game easier. I'm disappointed in Peyton Hillis so far, and LaMont Jordan is a good back for running out the clock and a very good receiver, but his minutes will be limited. The Broncos are near the top of the league in rushing with 139 yards per game and have a nice average of 4.6 YPA. They will be hard to stop and the Chargers haven't been great at stopping the run.

Slow Starts:

What is it with the slow starts in San Diego? Ever since Norv Turner came to town, the trend has been to stink up the beginning of the year and to firm up later. With the Broncos coming into the game undefeated, that just won't cut it in the AFC West. The Bolts need to wake up NOW if they are to have any chance at all in the division, much less in the playoffs.

I did a little checking, and it seems that historically the Chargers have had recurring issues in this regard. In fact, they are the only team since 1970 to make the playoffs after a 0-4 start, having managed that in 1992 (Final regular season record, 11-5 that year). At 2-2, they aren't in that kind of trouble, but unless they pull themselves together, they soon will be.

That's the big potential trap here - the Chargers have had two weeks to game-plan, which puts them almost even with an 8-day Josh McDaniels plan. They are at home, they are coming off a bye week, and they are fighting for the season. A loss at this point could end their Super Bowl aspirations for the year. They may be a very tough team on Monday night; but they are still, without question, vulnerable. Unless they can really put a lot of points on the board early, the Denver defense will probably shut them down in the second half.

A last point on SD:

I've been hearing from some intelligent Chargers fans that there "wasn't anyone out there who could have an impact at NT (and a few other positions)". I've had to bite my tongue before casually asking if they'd looked at Ron Fields lately. The fact is, there were good players at many of the positions that SD now needs sitting out there this past offseason. You can get a good look at most of them on the Broncos roster next Monday night. Blame this one firmly on A.J. Smith, who was too smart for his own good this time.

With all of these factors in mind, this has the makings of another great game. SD will be highly motivated - they're at home, the numbers favor them becuase they're coming off a bye at home and they know that their season may well rest on this game. That and their offense (other than the line) are concerns.

The Broncos, on the other hand, will be prepared.They will be well aware of the dangers. They will be recipients of the McDaniels/Nolan game plans. We have the same offense that has scored when ever it had to and which is looking to break the habit of starting slowly. They can - they know each other better each week. SD isn't, frankly, as good as New England. Could we drop emotionally. Honestly, not on Monday Night Football. I see that as a small benefit - our guys are given a chance to prove, on national and international TV, who they are.

They will. Broncos over the Bolts, 27-24. Rivers has a good night, Doom gets a couple of sacks and Orton continues to do his job and do it well. How's that for playing it safe?

Go Broncos!

If I Were the San Diego Chargers' GM: Q1 Review

John (obviousman) — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 17:08:32 -0000

More photos » by Jack Smith - AP

Being the Chargers GM must be awesome. (AP Photo/Jack Smith)

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My greatest love, as it pertains to football, is personnel. Even during an entertaining, late season game my brain can't help from scouting the players on my screen and thinking about improvements that need to be made to the roster. Even in the very early stages of an unpredictable season, I love nothing more than to throw my GM hat on and pretend I'm A.J. Smith.

I have two dream jobs. Well, three I guess. Number one would be playing Quarterback in the NFL. However, I'm about 4 inches shorter than Drew Brees and 9 inches shorter than Philip Rivers, so that might be hard. I will admit that I've always been an accurate passer in my backyard and even won my wife a stuffed duck on one of those boardwalk games where you have to hit the target inside of the swinging tire. Still, that one ain't happening.

My second dream job would be as GM in the NFL. This is the reason I look through stats endlessly and the reason I've read Ernie Accorsi's book twice already. If I could one day be the GM of any NFL team, I think I'd skip everywhere instead of walking. Also, I'd do it for free.

My third dream job I'm practically doing. It would be to write about the San Diego Chargers. To share my passion and contribute words to the world that are appreciated, even if it's by a small group of people.

So while writing about it, I'm going to be doing quarterly looks ahead to see the potential holes in the roster in 2010 and to tel you what I would do if I were Mr. Smith. My first attempt at this is after the jump.

Free Agents

Team FAs

Since I don't want to write this post two different ways every time I do it, let's go off the assumption that there will be a new CBA in place by time free agency rolls around. Here's who the Chargers are at risk of losing:

Who to Keep

Vincent Jackson
Brandon Manumaleuna
Marcus McNeill
Tim Dobbins

Look, the WR situation is not as bad as it might seem. Where will we find the money to pay VJ? Simple. We'll give him Chambers' money. Chris is one of the top 20 WRs in the league in terms of base salary. Moving that money over to Jackson, plus VJ's current salary and a little extra, should be enough to keep this dynamic WR in San Diego for another 5 years as least. That's a move that I would do as GM.

Manumaleuna can be kept because he'd probably be cheap. He's an effective blocking TE who can fill in at OT or FB in a pinch. Unless somebody else falls in love with Dobbins, I'd keep him around for run support, depth and his special teams prowess. McNeill is kept because he's an adequate LT that has tremendous potential. It's really hard to find a good LT these days and even harder to try to play without one.

Merriman can go because his price tag is too high. The team cannot afford to be paying starter's money to 3 OLBs. Also, the Chargers could do worse than having Antwan Applewhite and Jyles Tucker as the backups. I'd like to keep Osgood, but don't see him staying. Somebody that likes tall receivers (Bengals?) will give him a chance to catch balls and he'll be gone. Chambers, Sproles and Whitehurst will all cost much more than they're worth on the free agent market.

It would probably cause too many issues to slap the franchise tag onto Merriman. He wouldn't want to play on the one-year deal, he'll feel he's getting underpaid, etc. etc. I'd personally go without a franchised player in 2010.

Roster Holes

The 2009 offseason was the first in a few years where there was legitimate holes on the roster. As of right now, I don't know that the team did a very good job of filling all of those holes. In 2010, those same weaknesses exist along with new ones.

Running Back - The bad news is that LT can't take the beating of a starting RB in the NFL anymore. The good news is that his restructured contract makes him cheap enough that he could be the second option in the ground game without killing the cap.

Trying to buy a running back as a free agent is absurd, unless you find a diamond in the rough (like Priest Holmes). It's even harder when there's only a couple of decent free agents RBs. After this season, the only RBs that might become free agents (they could still sign a contract with their current team) that have any starting experience are LenDale White, Pierre Thomas, Chester Taylor, Willie Parker and Le'Ron McClain. Jerious Norwood is an intriguing name, although he hasn't started much at all since being drafted. I don't think any of these guys are worth the money that they're going to get, so I point my eyes towards the draft.

I think it is absolutely, 100% necessary to use the Chargers 2010 first round draft pick on a running back that can start immediately. Unfortunately, this draft class currently looks thin at RB. Perhaps it's just too early. Even so, I have my eye on Clemson's C.J. Spiller and from the looks of it he might want the chance to apprentice under Tomlinson.

Strong Safety - From what I've seen, Kevin Ellison is not the answer at Strong Safety. He's the Brandon Siler of that position. He's a strong, big hitter than is good against the run but will get burned if he has to cover anybody downfield. I don't think Clinton Hart or Steve Gregory are good enough that I feel secure in having either of them as my starting SS in 2010.

I'm very intrigued with C.J. Spillman as an option here. He was very fast and hit really hard during the preseason. He reminded me of Melvin Bullitt, who I am a big fan of. I'm hopeful that the only reason he's listed as a FS and saw time their in the preseason is because the team liked what they saw from both him and Ellison and did not want them competing for the third SS job. If I was A.J. Smith, I have a meeting with Norv Turner and Ron Rivera and ask them point blank of Spillman is a viable option to start at SS before I make any other moves.

Let's assume they say no. "There's nobody on the roster we're excited about starting at SS." Well, let's see what else is out there. The aforementioned Melvin Bullitt (RFA) is part of a strong class of free agent Strong Safeties that also includes Atari Bigby, Abram Elam, Dawan Landry and Brodney Pool. These guys may cost more than trying to find a decent SS through the draft, but with more important needs to fill with rookies I think the Free Agent route would be the one to take. Any of those 5 guys mentioned, with the possible exception of Brodney Pool, would be a great improvement over Hart and Gregory.

Defensive Tackle - I originally thought this position was a HUGE need, but it may not be by the end of this season. If Ogemdi Nwagbuo and Vaughn Martin both show improvement during the season, to the point where they could both be competent starters on the defensive line, then the Chargers have incredible depth in 2010. That would leave them with 5 legitimate starters (Nwagbuo, Martin, Luis Castillo, Jamal Williams, Jacques Cesaire) and no need for anyone beyond that besides maybe Ryon Bingham.

If neither of them pan-out, the Chargers will continue to look for a young replacement for Jamal Williams. There are plenty of good DTs in the 2009 draft class, including 365 lb. Terrence Cody, so that would be the way to go there. As for right now, Shaun Rogers would be someone that I would inquire about but it would cause problems for the future of the defensive line. Rogers is signed for 5 seasons after 2009, and considering the Chargers would have to give up at least a first round draft pick to get him they would not be eager to dump him once Jamal Williams came back or one of the young kids started to show promise. That means they would have to give up on J-Will, OG and/or Martin and I don't think they're ready to do any of that. If I'm A.J. Smith, I'd like to stand pat and see how the young kids play for the rest of the season. However, the idea of Rogers pushing the line around with Nwagbuo subbing in and Martin playing backup DE seems like one I'd have to jump on if the price was right.

Center - This one kindof kills me. After talking with him at training camp, I can say that Nick Hardwick is one of the nicest people I've ever met. Not one of the nicest Chargers or nicest football players, nicest people. I also think he's a fantastic Center when he's able to stay healthy. I just think the Chargers need a better backup plan for when he gets injured.

Tyronne Green brought some hope. He was a very good OG at Auburn, and they hoped to turn him into the backup Center. Considering he's the 3rd Center and probably the 5th Guard, it's safe to say this pick has yet to pan out. If he shows something before next season, great. He can be a solid Center and nobody else is needed. If he shows nothing, he needs to be cut and a legitimate Center needs to be drafted. It's damn near impossible to find a decent Center as a free agent because of how valuable they are to each team's offensive line.

Summary

It's obviously not a full plan, but there's direction there. Sign Vincent Jackson to the contract he's worth. Scout every college RB in the country. Aggressively pursue the free agent Strong Safeties. Make a decision to trade for a NT or put your confidence in Nwagbuo and Martin for the future. Find a real Center to backup Hardwick. The rest will fall into place as the season goes along, and I hope some of these weaknesses turn into strengths. Right now, that's what I would focus on if I were the General Manager of the San Diego Chargers.

2009 Statistical Rankings: 49er Players Through Week 2

Florida Danny — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 19:00:54 -0000

On Wednesday, we here at Niners Nation (NN) introduced a new weekly post presenting Football Outsiders' (FO) team rankings according to defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). Hope you enjoyed it, and hope you continue to read it for the next 15 (or more?) weeks. It turns out that FO also publishes player DVOA stats, as well as advanced stats measuring the performance of each team's OL, DEF front seven, and secondary. These stats are what I'll be presenting today, and will continue to present each Thursday or Friday during the regular season (and playoffs?).

If you don't know what DVOA is or how to interpret it, consult Wednesday's post. It's got my English-language answers for these relatively complicated questions. For today's post, and beware it's a long one, I'll be explaining FO's player stats as I present them.

After the jump, I'll discuss the player stats for the 49ers' QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, OL, DL, and DBs...

Before I begin, I just want to alert everyone to something that I'm sure would come up in the comments were I not to address it in the article. Basically, I'm only going to present stats for individual 49ers that have enough passes (15), carries (16), or targets (6 for WR, 3 for TE) to qualify for FO's most valid individual statistics, DVOA and DYAR. Below the relevant "yardage opportunity" thresholds, these statistics can be wildly erratic from week to week, and - frankly - aren't as trustworthy or enlightening as I'd like them to be. Let me make clear though that this would be my opinion about any statistic, as all statistics are negatively impacted by extremely small sample size. Furthermore, I'd still take FO's small-sample stats over the popular NFL stats because, although both may be flawed when sample size is low, at least FO's stats are adjusted for opponent (after Week 3), game situation, and other important factors.

With that said, it's on to the stats and rankings...

QUARTERBACKS

Here are Shaun Hill's stats through 2 games (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

DYAR	Rank	Passes	Actual Pass Yards	Yds Per Pass	Rank
-20	31	65	296	4.55	32
DVOA	Rank		EYds	EYds Per Pass	Rank
-16.5%	30		278	4.28	31

Before I discuss this table, let me explain what Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) and Effective Yards (EYds) mean. I've done this before on NN, but I'll do it again for the sake of clarification and NN newbie introduction.

For DYAR, FO first determined - via statistical analysis of NFL historical data - a "replacement level" of performance for each position that represents the number of yards an average NFL "backup" gains at that position. DYAR compares a player's yardage total to this "replacement level," and, as such, represents the difference between a player's yardage total and the yardage total that would be expected if he was replaced by an average backup at his position. In other words, DYAR answers the question that's often thrown around when it's time to argue about the MVP, "What would happen to Team X's offense if Player A got hurt and was replaced by Player B, who's an average backup?" In this sense, DYAR is a measure of a player's value to his team's offense, with positive numbers meaning his offense would be worse off yardage-wise without him. Now, obviously some backups are not average at all (See Sproles, Darren), so I'm using the MVP analogy in the name of education, not exact methodological precision. The purpose of DYAR is to compare players at the same position in a statistically valid way, not to settle the MVP debate. Therefore, it's important to realize that FO's use of a replacement level - something that's also done in sabermetrics - is aimed at creating a trustworthy statistic (by standardizing, and providing a baseline for starter performance) rather than providing fodder for sports talk radio.

For EYds, FO simply adjusts each players yardage totals based on the same factors for which it adjusts their DVOA statistic (i.e., opponent, game situation, etc.). In other words, EYds is basically DVOA without the whole "play success" determination that I described on Wednesday. This is intuitive because both are grounded in the concept that some yards (e.g., rushing yards on 3^rd and 20 against DET) are easier to gain than others (e.g., rushing yards on 3^rd and 2 against PIT), and therefore that high-difficulty yards should be worth more (i.e., are more efficient) than low-difficulty yards. Because this has the effect of standardizing (aka evening out) game situations for all players at the same position, EYds tells you how many yards a player would be expected to have if he played in average game situations. When a player's EYds is higher than his actual yards, it means that (a) he's been playing in game situations that are more difficult than average, and (b) he's actually been more efficient than his actual yards would seem to suggest. In contrast, the opposite is true when EYds is lower than actual yards.

Just to make EYds as clear as possible, here's a quick example:

Thomas Jones runs for 10 yards on 3^rd and 1 against TEN this week, while Willis McGahee runs for 10 yards on 3^rd and 10 against CLE this week. Both Jones and McGahee ended up with 10 rushing yards according to the NFL. However, we all know that Jones' 10 yards were more valuable than McGahee's because TEN is the top-ranked run DEF, whereas CLE is the 31^st-ranked run DEF. Now, let's say that, on 3^rd and 1, TEN's run DEF is 25% better than average (i.e., each rushing yard on 3^rd and 1 against TEN's DEF is worth 125%), whereas CLE's run DEF is 25% worse than average (i.e., each rushing yard on 3^rd and 1 against CLE's DEF is worth 75%).

Given these defensive situational stats, Jones' 10-yard run would have been expected to go 12.5 yards against an average run DEF (10 x 12.5 = 12.5), while McGahee's run would have been expected to go 7.5 yards (10 x .75 = 7.5). In other words, Jones' EYds for his run was 12.5, whereas McGahee's EYds for his run was 7.5. Therefore, the fact that Jones' EYds (12.5) is higher than his actual yards (10) accurately shows that (a) Jones' run was in a more difficult game situation, and (b) Jones was more efficient than McGahee. Notice also how going only by actual yards, which is what the NFL provides and pundits always refer to, our conclusion about which RB is better would have incorrectly been, "they're equals." This is precisely the major benefit of relying on EYds instead of actual yards.

OK, enough with the statistics lessons...

By any valid measure, Hill's value and effectiveness through 2 games compares pretty unfavorably to the other starting NFL QBs. With respect to his DYAR, the 49ers' pass OFF would actually be 20 yards better through 2 games if he had been replaced with an average NFL backup. Unfortunately, the Niners don't appear to have an average NFL backup on their roster, at least that's what I think. The kicker is that, even if you consider Alex Smith to be an average backup, Hill's DYAR suggests an improvement of only 20 yards were Smith to be elevated to the starting lineup. And one more thing about Hill's DYAR just to drive the point home: The only starting QBs that are less valuable (i.e., have a lower DYAR) than Hill so far this year are Brady Quinn (aka "1 TD guy"), Jake Delhomme (aka "6 turnovers guy), and Matt Stafford (aka "8 days on the job" guy). That's quite impressive company, indeed.

With respect to EYds, Hill's are lower than his actual passing yards, which means that his meager production has unfortunately come in situations easier than average. Furthermore, if we compare Hill to a starter who has similar actual passing yards through 2 games, we find that he's actually been less effective than - gasp - Marc Bulger, who has 66 more EYds than actual passing yards (355 vs. 289).

Of course, all of the above stats are affected by the fact that Jimmy Raye is not Sean Payton and Isaac Bruce is not Marques Colston. In other words, SF's OFF doesn't require much in the way of passing yardage, and SF's WRs aren't exactly Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens when it comes to yards after catch.

The latter factor is something we can't really account for, but the former is accounted for by the per-pass stats in the table. As you can see, Hill has thrown for 4.55 yards per pass, which is pretty abysmal when you consider that the average is 6.25 among the 35 QBs with 15 passes or more. What's worse though is Hill's 4.28 EYds per pass, which is over 30% lower than the qualified-QB average. Not to mention that the #1 QB, Drew Brees, has an EYds/Pass that's triple that of Hill's (12.83).

RUNNING BACKS

Among Niner RBs, only Frank Gore qualifies for the most valid FO stats through 2 games (> 14 runs). Here they are:

DYAR	Rank	Runs	Actual Run Yards	Yds Per Run	Rank
24	13	38	237	6.24	5
DVOA	Rank		EYds	EYds Per Run	Rank
7.6%	15		169	4.45	17

Looking at DYAR, Gore has been more valuable than all but 12 RBs, the most valuable of which has been Marion Barber (DYAR = 75). If we translate Gore's DYAR into DYAR per run, we see that replacing him with an average backup would cost the Niners' run OFF over half of a yard per carry. Of course, the question is whether or not Glen Coffee is an average backup. Based on the preseason, you'd think he's above average. However, because (a) preseason stats don't mean anything (See Clayton, Thomas; sorry Ninjames), and (b) he's a rookie, you can't be so sure of that above-average status.

Regarding EYds, Gore's are considerably lower than his actual run yards, which means that his production has come in easier-than-average situations. I have a sneaking suspicion that this is due to his pair of 80-yard TDs against the Seahawks, which both came in a relatively easy running situation (1^st & 10 with the Niners up 3 points). I can't know this for certain though because I'm not privy to the situation-specific NFL averages that FO uses to determine whether the difficulty of a particular game situation. However, it's interesting to note that the RB immediately ahead of Gore in actual run yards, Chris Johnson with 254, also seems to have had his EYds (145) take a massive hit thanks to 2 long TD runs in Week 2, albeit in (intuitively) easier game situations. Specifically, Johnson's 57-yard TD run came on 3^rd & 19 with the score tied at 0, and his 91-yard TD run came on 3^rd & 10 with the score tied at 24. Running the ball on 3^rd & Long with the score tied against HOU's run DEF sure seems like about as easy a game situation as you can get to run the ball. Although this is most likely why his yards-to-EYds difference is even larger than Gore's, I still think both of their differences are due in major part to the length of their TD runs because, subtracting 25%, for example, from an 80-yard "easy" run (or 20 yards) does much more damage to a RB's EYds than subtracting 25% from a 20-yard "easy" run (or 5 yards); 15 more yards of damage to be exact.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Among Niner WRs - and this shouldn't surprise you - only Isaac Bruce qualifies for the most valid FO stats through 2 games (> 5 targets). Incidentally, you should know that, for WRs and TEs, FO analyzes all plays in which a player was the intended receiver of a pass, not just the passes he actually catches. For your convenience, I've included "Catch Rate" in the table, which is simply Receptions divided by Targets. OK, here are Bruce's stats:

DYAR	Rank	Targets	Actual Rec Yards	Yds Per Target	Rank
-2	55	16	109	6.81	46
DVOA	Rank	Catch Rate	EYds	EYds Per Target	Rank
-14.3%	55	50.0%	99	6.19	54

According to DYAR, Bruce could be replaced by an average backup and the 49ers wouldn't lose much in the way of receiving yards. Unlike the situation with Gore, the 49ers likely do have an average backup or two on their roster. The question becomes, "Does Bruce's experience, leadership, and rapport with Hill make him more valuable than the average WR backup with which you'd replace him; say Brandon Jones or - gasp - a signed Michael Crabtree?" At this point, I'd say the answer is probably, "Yes, Bruce is more valuable right now."

I think the take home message of this table is that the 49ers' pass OFF doesn't have a #1 WR. Alternatively, you might say that anyone who thinks the 49ers have a #1 WR is sorely mistaken - at least through 2 games. I say this because Bruce, the Niners' nominal #1 WR, actually ranks as a middle-of-the-pack #2 WR according to every stat in the table. Now, as was the case with Hill, he's being affected by Raye's offensive philosophy. As evidence for this Raye effect, I'll echo something Mike Sando reported recently: Only twice has Raye been the offensive coordinator (OC) of a 1,000-yard WR, and only twice has one of his WRs had 65 catches or more. Interestingly enough, Bruce is on pace for a 64-catch, 872-yard season. Coincidence? I think not.

TIGHT ENDS

Among Niner TEs, only Vernon Davis qualifies for the most valid FO stats through 2 games (> 2 targets). Here they are:

DYAR	Rank	Targets	Actual Rec Yards	Yds Per Target	Rank
0	31	13	72	5.54	34
DVOA	Rank	Catch Rate	EYds	EYds Per Target	Rank
-7.7%	31	53.8%	61	4.69	32

All hail your 49ers' 2006 1^st-round pick! The 31^st-most valuable TE in a 32-team league! Seriously, though, there are two OFF positions that were poised to benefit when Raye replaced Mike Martz as OC: RB and TE. After all, Tony Gonzalez made his bones when Raye was in KC. Not to mention the fact that Martz had the perennial nobodies like Jeff Robinson, Roland Williams, Ernie Conwell, Brandon Manumaleuna, and Dan Campbell manning the TE position during his tenures in STL and DET. And yet, VD's 2-game "renaissance" consists of vaulting from 37^th in DYAR last year to 31^st this year.

To be fair, ARI and SEA have two of the better sets of LBs and Ss in the NFL, so it might be the case that VD's stats will improve when FO incorporates opponent adjustments after Week 3. Maybe, maybe not; we'll just have to wait and see. I wouldn't hold my breath though. The bottom line is that the 49ers have a seemingly above-average backup in Delanie Walker, so they might actually benefit from starting him over VD. Whatever the case may be, it's getting awfully close to "fish or cut bait" time for the guy in the fuchsia shirt.

Here he is soliciting your vote for the poll:

via blogs.orlandosentinel.com

OFFENSIVE LINE

For the sake of brevity, I'm not going to explain FO's methodology behind their stats for OLs and DEF front sevens. You can find their thorough explanation here. Rather, I'll just tell you that, in the next table, the following stats, are interpreted in the following ways:

Adjusted Line Yards (ALY) - Run yards per RB carry (up to 10 per carry) that are attributable to the OL. This is a measure of OL run-blocking performance, with higher numbers meaning better OL play.
Power Success Rate - % of runs that are successful on 3^rd/4^th Down & 2 or Less (i.e., ones that result in a 1^st down or TD). This is another measure of OL run-blocking performance, with higher %s meaning better OL play.
Stuffed Rate - % of RB carries that gain 0 or negative yardage. This is another measure of OL run-blocking performance, with lower %s meaning better OL play.
Adjusted Sack Rate (ASR) - Sacks per pass attempt. This is a measure of OL pass-blocking performance, with lower %s meaning better OL play.

Each of these stats has been adjusted for game situation, with all stats except ASR also having been adjusted for OFF formation because some formations produce more OL-reliant rushing yards than others. As with other FO stats I've presented over the past 2 days, opponent adjustments won't kick in until after Week 3. OK, here are the 49ers' OL stats through 2 games:

ALY	Rank	Power Success Rate	Rank	ASR	Rank
2.51	31	50.0%	25	10.0%	29
Actual Yds Per RB Carry	Rank	Stuffed Rate	Rank	Actual Sack Rate	Rank
5.20	5	24.0%	23	12.1%	30

Let's start with pass-blocking. Yeah, not so good. According to their actual sack rate, Hill is getting sacked about once every 8 times he drops back to pass; good (bad?) for 30^th in the NFL. According to ASR, the picture's a little rosier, but still not pretty: game situations have accounted for between 1 and 2 total sacks thus far this season, meaning that the OL is actually pass blocking better than what basic NFL stats would otherwise indicate (ask me in the comments if you want to know how I came up with this). Of course, surrendering 6 or 7 sacks in 60+ dropbacks isn't going to cut it in the long run (long pass?...sorry, had to).

In terms of run blocking, it sure looks like the Niners' OL isn't doing it very well. To begin, only half of SF's yards per RB carry can be attributable to the OL, a stat that's no doubt affected by Gore's twin 80-yard TD runs. In other words, outside of those 2 runs, in which the lion's share of the yardage was thanks to Gore's breakaway speed, the SF run OFF has been the proverbial 3 yards and a cloud of dust. More proof of the OL's lackluster run-blocking performance through 2 games is their relative inability to (a) pick up 1^st downs on short-yardage runs, and (b) prevent DEF penetration for stops at or behind the line of scrimmage. These conclusions are based on the OL's power success rate and stuffed rate.

Below is a chart displaying the OL's directional run-blocking performance (click to enlarge):

Looking at the top of the chart, you can see the 49ers are running the ball predominately up the middle and behind RT. Keeping in mind that the NFL standard for teams with a right-handed QB is to have their better run blockers on the right side of the line and their better pass blockers on the left side of the line, the Niners' preference for middle-right runs is in the top quartile of an already middle-right run-heavy league. It's also interesting to note - not to mention very peculiar - that SF hasn't the run the ball to the outside right at all in their first 2 games.

With respect to directional ALY, notice how inept the 49ers' OL has been on runs behind the tackles. This is especially troubling behind RT for the reason I just described: it's where their OFF prefers to run the ball. Hey. At least they're only below average when it comes to running up the middle. Of course, these stats probably confirm what we've been seeing in the run game from our 49ers. Namely, 3 yards and a cloud of dust; keep running it up the middle for minimal gains regardless of whether the DEF is stopping it or not - and they have been.

DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN

The same stats for OL can be applied in reverse to the DEF. However, rather than these stats measuring the performance of the DL, it's more accurate to say that they measure the performance of the DEF front 7 because LBs - and sometimes Ss - are involved in run-stopping. So here they are:

ALY	Rank	Power Success Rate	Rank	ASR	Rank
3.24	8	100.0%	32	5.8%	14
Actual Yds Per RB Carry	Rank	Stuffed Rate	Rank	Actual Sack Rate	Rank
3.13	6	32.3%	2	4.5%	13

Once again, we see statistical proof that the DEF is carrying this team. Except for being perfectly unsuccessful in short-yardage 3^rd/4^th down situations, they've been stout overall stopping the run. Although perhaps not apparent at first glance, the Niners' middle-of-the-road ASR is an important development. For one, they were a dismal 26^th last season, with an ASR of 5.0%. Also - and this is a nuanced point, so try to keep up with me here - the 2008 49ers' DEF had an ASR that was lower than its' actual sack rate, whereas this season the reverse is true. In other words, last year's pathetic sack total was - even more depressingly - a statistical mirage due to favorable game situations. Think "losing by 20 points on 3^rd & 20 in the early 4^th quarter." In contrast, this year's pass rush has actually been hurt, rather than helped, by the game situations in which they've played. Aside from this being yet another vindication of the validity of FO's stats, it more importantly suggests that the Niners pass rush might have more to show for itself once game situations even out a little bit as the season progresses.

Below is the DEF front 7's directional run-stopping chart (click to enlarge):

As you can see, the 49ers are a top-8 DEF through 2 games when it comes to stopping runs to the outside. Is this a speed thing? Is this a Nate Clements and Shawntae Spencer thing? Is this an overall aggressive philosophy thing? You decide.

One other thing I'll point out about the directional stats is a bit of good fortune the DEF front 7 seems to have experienced in their first 2 games. Namely, they allow over 7 adjusted yards per RB carry when the opponent runs behind their LT, but - thankfully - ARI and SEA have basically ignored that major weakness in their play-calling. If I were MIN, or any other future 2009 opponent, I'd be looking to exploit this weakness much more than 3.2% of the time.

DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD

Finally, FO puts out DVOA stats for each pass DEF that tell you how they've performed against their various types of opposing receivers. As is the case with all passing stats, these look at every pass attempt, not just those that are completed. Again, I've made a reader-friendly chart for you (click to enlarge):

Although it's quite difficult to figure out, a thorough search of the internet, NFL game books, and Fooch's DVR led to the pass DEF formations displayed above. In nickel, Manny Lawson and Parys Haralson move to DE, Dre Bly comes in as the 3^rd CB, Mark Roman - ugh - replaces Michael Lewis at SS, and Lewis moves down to replace Takeo Spikes at WLB. In dime, either Lewis moves back to S (with Dashon Goldson and Roman) or Tarell Brown replaces Lewis as the 6^th DB.

As for the stats, the chart shows that Spencer and Bly have actually played more efficiently than Clements. Of course, it's once again important to remember that the above stats haven't been adjusted for opponent yet. Obviously, Larry Fitzgerald and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are 2 of the best #1 WRs in the NFL, so Clements' stats stand to improve simply by virtue of the adjustments. I don't anticipate much of a change in the stats vs. TEs, because SF has faced one really good TE (John Carlson) and one invisible TE (Anthony Becht), which pretty much averages things out anyway. And one more thing I don't envision changing much is the pass DEF's poor performance against RBs, but that might just be - at least in part - by design.

BOTTOM LINE

OK, so through 2 games, we can draw the following conclusions about the 2009 49ers based on their team statistics thus far:

Hill has produced pass-unfriendly numbers despite playing in pass-friendly situations. But having Jimmy Raye as an OC is a superceding pass-unfriendly situation.
Gore's been a valuable and efficient RB, though not quite as much as what those two 80-yard runs might suggest. Sorry for the reality check, but don't expect him to be gaining 6+ yards per carry for the remainder of the season.
Bruce may be the Niners' best WR, but he sure hasn't been a #1 WR, which means Morgan hasn't been a #2 WR, and so on.
VD...can win without him.
The OL hasn't been run-blocking very well, which is surprising, what with all the practice they've been getting. They've been pretty bad compared to the rest of the league at pass-blocking too, but still better than what their 8 sacks allowed might suggest.
The DEF front seven has been stout against the run, especially when the opponent has run to the outside. Also, their pass rush through 2 games is statistically better than last year's, and may improve even more once their game situations even out.
The secondary is defending well against #2 WRs, #3 WRs, and TEs, but not so well against #1 WRs and RBs. Clements' numbers will probably improve once FO starts making opponent adjustments, but the poor pass DEF against RBs probably won't.

OK, that's it for this week. If the length of these 2 posts has rubbed you the wrong way or made you feel like you just survived being hit in the back by Patrick Willis, don't fret. Next week, I won't be trying to teach everyone how FO's stats were developed, what they mean, how they're interpreted, etc. That'll make the posts a whoooooooole lot shorter. So, see you again next week, hopefully after a Niner win!

**DVOA, DYAR, ALY, and ASR statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

After what you've seen from Vernon Davis in the first 2 games of 2009, should the 49ers fish or cut bait?

Fish

437 votes

Cut bait

65 votes

502 votes | Poll has closed

The Argument for a San Diego Chargers Passing Attack

John (obviousman) — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 18:00:30 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Sanchez - AP

3 months ago: San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, left, drops back to pass as Oakland Raiders linebacker Ricky Brown, right, looks on during the third quarter of their NFL football game between the Oakland Raiders against the San Diego Chargers, Monday, Sept. 14, 2009 in Oakland, Calif.(AP Photo/Marcio Sanchez)

Browse more photos »

It's time I dig into this issue and get my fingernails dirty. Guessing why Norv Turner prefers a balanced offense to a spread-out, pass-happy offense is not going to get us anywhere. Sure, with one of the greatest RBs of all-time (and one known to almost never fumble the ball), there's temptation to keep handing him the rock and sending him up the middle (since he can't make it outside as easily anymore). However, I'm going to make the argument that switch to a more spread-out, pass-happy offense would benefit the Chargers and make them a more dynamic team.

1. Play to your personnel. Any good Head Coach/General Manager relationship should revolve around this statement. The GM's job is to find good players at bargain prices and hand them to the coach. The coach's job is to build a team that plays to the strengths of his roster. Here are the strengths of the Chargers roster:

Hands - Who on this offense can't catch a ball? You could argue that Vincent Jackson occasionally doesn't make the easy catch, but every other catch is generally made. Malcom Floyd, Legedu Naanee, Chris Chambers, Antonio Gates, LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles all have glue on their hands. Michael Bennett, Jacob Hester, Mike Tolbert, Buster Davis, Brandon Manumaleuna, Kassim Osgood and Kris Wilson are all somewhere between "Good" and "Fantastic".
Speed - Need burners? We got 'em. I think VJ and Naanee are probably the two fastest WRs, with Floyd, Chambers and Buster not far behind. Gates may be the fastest TE in football. Sproles is probably the fastest RB in football. This is a team Urban Meyer would drool over.
The Captain of the Ship - So you just made Philip Rivers the highest-paid player on your team. Considering he's also signed to be here just as long as anyone else on the roster, this is his team. Chances are in 5 years from now the team will look very different, but Rivers will still be behind Center. Why not build the team around his strengths? He's the leader, he's accurate and he's smart. In his entire career, only 2.5% of his passes have been intercepted. In his career he's average 7.5 yards per pass attempt and 12 yards per completed pass. Compare that to Tomlinson's 4.2 yards per carry last year and you can see how this may be a more effective way to move the offense downfield.
The Offensive Line - In 2006 and 2007, Kris Dielman was maybe the best Guard in the entire NFL. At that same time, Lorenzo Neal was maybe the best Fullback in football. Those two guys worked magic and cleared some massive holes to help LT break those records. However, Dielman isn't the incredible run-blocker he once was. Nick Hardwick can't seem to stay healthy and the starting Right Guard for the Chargers has very little experience as a run blocker. This is an offensive line that is currently better suited to pass-block than they are run-block.
Jacob Hester - NFL offenses are quite simple in some ways. Do you have a big, bruising RB that can break tackles? He may or may not need a lead blocker to clear the way. Do you have a small RB that can make something happen if you give him space? He needs a lead blocker that can clear the way. For as much as I praise Hester for the progress he's made as a blocker, he will never be Lorenzo Neal. He will never knock LBs five yards back when he hits them. His hands, ability to run the football and intelligence make him a more valuable weapon in a passing offense than in a power running offense.
LT/Sproles - As I just stated, for these guys to succeed they need a big, bruising offensive line and a powerful lead blocker. They don't currently have that, but that doesn't mean they cannot be effective. If you spread the defense out and force them to play with 5 or 6 defensive backs, that will make both LT and Sproles more effective than if you line up 2 TEs and a FB in front of them and send them up the middle against 8 guys. Also, with LT/Sproles constantly being lined up against LBs and Safeties you'd have clear-cut mismatches on every play.

See the rest of my argument for the Chargers to run a spread-out, pass-happy offense after the jump.

2. It's a proven success for winning. In the past 50 years, there have been plenty of teams that have tried to win through the air rather than on the ground. Some have had more success than others. The key is defense. If you have even an average defense, you can outscore your opponents. Teams like the 2008 Cardinals, 2007 Patriots, 2006 Colts, 2004 Eagles, 2002 Raiders and 2001 Rams (all teams that have made the super bowl) have all had great offenses without having much of a running attack. These teams made it further than any recent Chargers team by spreading the defense out 3, 4 and sometimes even 5 wide.

3. It makes the defense better. The teams mentioned above each had defenses that were able to be much more aggressive than other teams because they were typically playing from ahead. I once heard an interview with the late Eagles Defensive Coordinator Jim Johnson, a man who Ron Rivera considers a mentor, in which he half-jokingly said something to the effect of "My play-calling is suicide unless we're playing with a lead." Any coach that loves to blitz will tell you that getting an early lead is the key to running an aggressive defense.

4. It slows down the opponent's running game. If the Oakland game showed us anything, it is the the Chargers front seven can get pushed around. Considering the Bolts are facing the AFC North and NFC East this season, meaning they will play at least a handful of teams the win with running and defense, this may be the only option. Do the Chargers really think they can win against the Giants, Ravens or Steelers with the same offense they ran against the Raiders? The way to beat those teams is to make them abandon their gameplan and force them to start playing away from their strengths. I think that quickly getting up by 10 or 14 points by spreading them out, then sending heavy blitzing at their QBs while covering their none-too-impressive receivers, would certainly give the Bolts a better chance at victory. Balance be damned.

5. Rivers or LT. I know LT is the bigger name and the one that shows up in the commercials. I know that when he's on the sideline, I rarely get to see the action on the field. I've made a million cases for taking some of the workload away from LT to save his legs, so I'm not going into that again. However, here is my point: Philip Rivers led the Chargers to 5 come-from-behind victories in 2008. He already has one come-from-behind victory in 2009. When it gets to the 4th quarter and the Bolts are losing, the fans and the team seems very confident that Rivers is going to come through and win the game. Why? Because he's a great player, that's why. So my question is, if it's become painfully obvious to everybody who pays attention to the team that Rivers has become the best player on the team, why would you wait until you're losing in the 4th quarter to hand him the reins of the offense? Wouldn't it make more sense to build a lead with Philip throwing the ball all over the place, then let LT get his carries and burn the clock in the second half while the defense blitzes the hell out of the opposing QB?

Updating the San Diego Chargers Depth Chart

John (obviousman) — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 09:50:16 -0000

by Denis Poroy - AP

San Diego Chargers linebacker Shawne Merriman, left, drills with teammates during the Chargers NFL football practice held in San Diego Monday, Sept. 7, 2009. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

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Is everyone ready to get back to business? I know I've had enough Tila Tequila for a lifetime.

Since we have been keeping your readers up-to-date to the Chargers depth chart throughout the preseason, I thought it was appropriate to do it one last time after the roster as been cut to 53. Barring injury, this is probably the way it will look for the remainder of the site.

The official Chargers depth chart, plus my thoughts, can be found after the jump.

Offense

WR1

Chris Chambers
Malcom Floyd
Buster Davis

WR2

Kris Dielman
Scott Mruczkowski

Nick Hardwick
Scott Mruczkowski

Louis Vasquez
Scott Mruczkowski

Jeromey Clary
Brandyn Dombrowski

Defense

OLB1

Stephen Cooper

OLB2

LCB

Quentin Jammer

RCB

The special teams you can guess. Nate Kaeding is the only kicker, Mike Scifres is the only punter. David Binn is the long snapper, Sproles is the return man and Cromartie is the backup return man.

Now, I started copying this depth chart from the Chargers weekly game release, but then decided to go off of the depth chart that's listed on Chargers.com. Mostly I went this way because I thought they'd be roughly the same, but with one having Manumaleuna listed as the 2nd TE and the other having him listed as the second starting FB (I know, it's odd). However, there's more differences than that. Let's count all of the differences on the game release from what you see above:

Brandon Manumaleuna is listed as the second starting FB. Kris Wilson listed as 2nd TE.
Tyronne Green is listed as the 3rd string LG and RG.
Osgood is listed as the 3rd WR1, Davis is listed as the 3rd WR2.
Travis Johnson is listed as the backup for Jamal Williams and Luis Castillo. Nwagbuo is listed as the backup to Cesaire. Vaughn Martin is shown as the 3rd DE at both spots.
Shaun Phillips is backed up by Jyles Tucker. Merriman is backed up by Applewhite. English is listed 3rd behind Merriman.

That's interesting, isn't it? There's probably nothing to the inconsistencies. It's probably just a case of two different people putting the depth charts together. Still, I'd like to know who the team really considers to be the backup DT and if English is really ahead of Tucker.

The offensive line looks even thinner on the Chargers' website's depth chart. Why not show Green there as well, so the fans don't get nervous about one guy backing up all three interior-line positions by himself? Also, Dombrowski covering both tackle positions by himself would worry me more if I didn't think that Mooch or even Manumaleuna could handle an offensive tackle spot in a pinch.

What do you guys think? Is there enough depth on this team to fight through injuries in 2009?

San Diego Chargers' Roster: 2009 vs. 2008

John (obviousman) — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 14:02:57 -0000

More photos » by Dave Martin - AP

3 months ago: San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson (21) and quarterback Philip Rivers (17) watch from the sidelines during their NFL preseason football game against the Atlanta Falcons at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta Saturday Aug. 29, 2009. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

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With the San Diego Chargers' 53-man roster set, I want to compare where the team is today compared to where they were one year ago. How do the position groups match up to each other? On talent alone, has the team gotten better or worse?

QB (2009): Philip Rivers, Billy Volek, Charlie Whitehurst

QB (2008): Rivers, Volek, Whitehurst

Verdict: Equal. There's been no change, but Rivers enters 2009 with no questions about his health (as he did in 2008) and a year of learning how to carry an NFL team on his back. Volek looks more polished as he gets even more comfortable with Norv Turner's offense. Still, any improvements here have more to do with time and chemistry rather than any talent improvement.

See the comparisons and verdicts of the rest of the position groups after the jump.

HB (2009): LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles, Michael Bennett, Gartrell Johnson, Jacob Hester, Mike Tolbert

HB (2008): LT, Sproles, Hester, Tolbert, Andrew Pinnock

Verdict: Better in '09. The Chargers went into 2008 thinking that Hester could fit the role of power RB and backup to LT. He has shown himself to be a fine FB, but not an NFL-caliber running back. So, based on the fact that there is at least one decent backup to LT in 2009 (Bennett) and possibly another (Johnson), 2009 wins.

WR (2009): Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson, Buster Davis, Malcom Floyd, Legedu Naanee, Kassim Osgood

WR (2008): Chambers, Jackson, Davis, Floyd, Naanee, Osgood

Verdict: Equal. Same players, same result. Jackson, Floyd and Naanee may be better than they were at the start of 2008, but there's really no way of predicting that. The expectations for Chambers and Davis have dropped in the last year.

TE (2009): Antonio Gates, Brandon Manumaleuna, Kris Wilson

TE (2008): Gates, Manumaleuna

Verdict: Better in '09. Kris Wilson offers great blocking and good hands out of the 3rd TE position. Having a player like that on the end of the line (possibly next to Manu), offers a great improvement for goal line packages. Expect a lot of "Off Tackle" runs to his side when the Chargers are inside the opponents' 5 yard line.

OT (2009): Jeromey Clary, Marcus McNeill, Brandyn Dombrowski

OT (2008): Clary, McNeill, L.J. Shelton, Corey Clark

Verdict: Better in 2008. Although I really like Dombrowski, I'd certainly prefer to have 2 legitimate backup Tackles and a veteran mixed in there (like Shelton) makes me more comfortable as well. Shelton did a decent job filling in for McNeill in 2008, and it's always nice to have a proven commodity sitting on the bench should anything happen.

G (2009): Kris Dielman, Louis Vasquez, Tyronne Green

G (2008): Dielman, Mike Goff, Scott Mruczkowski

Verdict: Better in '09. Dielman is healthier than he was going into 2008, Goff was a train-wreck last season and has since flopped in KC, and Mooch is still on the team. Louis Vasquez brings a massive presence to the right side of the line that should eventually help balance it out.

C (2009): Nick Hardwick, Mruczkowski

C (2008): Hardwick, Jeremy Newberry, Cory Withrow

Verdict: Better in '09. Hardwick is healthy, which is the biggest improvement here, and Mooch is a better blocker than Newberry and Withrow combined. The reason the Chargers were able to go with only 8 offensive linemen is because Mruczkowski and Green can both play Center and Guard. Dombrowski can also play either Tackle or Guard.

Defense

DT (2009): Jamal Williams, Ogemdi Nwagbuo

DT (2008): Williams, Brandon McKinney

Verdict: Equal. Both McKinney and Nwagbuo are young and have shown themselves to be capable in the preseason. Regular work in the season will let the team know if Nwagbuo is ready to fill that backup NT slot long-term.

DE (2009): Luis Castillo, Travis Johnson, Vaughn Martin, Jacques Cesaire

DE (2008): Castillo, Igor Olshansky, Cesaire, Ryon Bingham

Verdict: Incomplete. For as bland as Igor was as the Chargers' DE, he stayed healthy and was consistent enough to almost never get bowled over. Cesaire's health will help determine if this group has been improved over 2008, as well as how well Travis Johnson can transition back to the 3-4 and if he's improved work ethic. Since neither is a starter, I'll call Martin and Bingham a tie.

ILB (2009): Kevin Burnett, Stephen Cooper, Tim Dobbins, Brandon Siler

ILB (2008): Dobbins, Siler, Matt Wilhelm, Derek Smith, Anthony Waters

Verdict: 2009, better by a long shot. Cooper wasn't on the initial 53 man roster from 2008 because he was serving a 4 game suspension, so that's a big improvement. Burnett has shown himself to be a major playmaker in the Chargers defense, which puts him leaps and bounds ahead of Wilhelm, Smith and Waters.

OLB (2009): Shawne Merriman, Shaun Phillips, Larry English, Jyles Tucker, Antwan Applewhite

OLB (2008): Merriman, Phillips, Marques Harris, Jyles Tucker

Verdict: 2009 wins. A healthy Merriman (remember, the Chargers knew he was planning on playing 2008 on a bad knee), plus a first-round draft pick, makes this an easy choice.

CB (2009): Quentin Jammer, Antonio Cromartie, Antoine Cason

CB (2008): Jammer, Cromartie, Cason, Cletis Gordon, DeJuan Tribble

Verdict: Tie. Gordon and Tribble don't bring anything to the 2008 group. Figuring that out helped the Chargers to take the risk and go with only 3 CBs in 2009.

FS (2009): Eric Weddle, Paul Oliver, C.J. Spillman

FS (2008): Weddle, Oliver

Verdict: 2009, but just barely. I don't know that Spillman will see a lot of time as a FS in '09, but he should be a force on special teams and could eventually develop into the backup FS or a starting SS.

SS (2009): Clinton Hart, Steve Gregory, Kevin Ellison

SS (2008): Hart, Gregory

Verdict: 2009, but just barely. Ellison brings something to the table in goal line situations (where he can't get burned deep), and I hope he can do something for special teams, but that's about it right now. If he continues to develop, keeping him this season will pay dividends in the future.

Special Teams (LS/K/P): David Binn, Nate Kaeding and Mike Scifres are rocks in this group. The Chargers, and their fans, are hopeful that this trio stays together for another five seasons.

Do you have a question for next week's mailbag? Don't hesitate to e-mail me directly with your question and I'll make sure to answer it before next week's game.

The Entire San Diego Chargers 53 Man Roster (Michael Bennett makes the team!)

John (obviousman) — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 22:52:15 -0000

Offense

QB - Philip Rivers, Billy Volek, Charlie Whitehurst

RB - LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles, Michael Bennett, Gartrell Johnson, Jacob Hester, Mike Tolbert

WR - Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson, Buster Davis, Malcom Floyd, Legedu Naanee, Kassim Osgood

TE - Antonio Gates, Brandon Manumaleuna, Kris Wilson

OT - Jeromey Clary, Marcus McNeill, Brandyn Dombrowski

OG - Kris Dielman, Louis Vasquez, Tyronne Green

C - Nick Hardwick, Scott Mruczkowski

Defense

DT - Jamal Williams, Ogemdi Nwagbuo

DE - Luis Castillo, Travis Johnson, Vaughn Martin, Jacques Cesaire

ILB - Kevin Burnett, Stephen Cooper, Tim Dobbins, Brandon Siler

OLB - Shawne Merriman, Shaun Phillips, Larry English, Jyles Tucker, Antwan Applewhite

CB - Quentin Jammer, Antonio Cromartie, Antoine Cason

FS - Eric Weddle, Paul Oliver, C.J. Spillman

SS - Clinton Hart, Steve Gregory, Kevin Ellison

Special Teams

LS - David Binn

K - Nate Kaeding

P - Mike Scifres

A Proposed 53 Man San Diego Chargers Roster

Stephen (shaynes41) — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 13:47:14 -0000

We've gone through some of the position battles and depth chart at several of our key positions. While those discussions are fruitful for who is starting and who is backing up, it is always difficult to figure out who might stick around from that group as a 3rd guy or special teams guy. Those sorts of decisions tend to be made in the context of the entire roster rather than a specific position group.

We will know the real answer by Saturday, but I thought we might take a cut at it now in light of how the preseason has progressed so far. Outside of wasting some of your time, it can't really hurt to take a preliminary cut at who is going to be on the 53 man roster once Saturday evening rolls around.

So if you're interested read on!

First of all, let's review some roster size basics. By the time the regular season starts, the Chargers will have 53 players on their roster. On game day, the coaches will pick 45 players to be "active." These active players will suit up and can play. The inactive players will be on the sideline in street clothes. The exception to this is the 3rd string QB who is labeled as the emergency QB. He is technically inactive, but is still suited up. He can be activated during the game if the first two QBs get injured. If he comes into the game, the first two QBs are not allowed back in. You don't have to have an inactive emergency QB. Theoretically, you could have 3 active QBs (no one does this) or you could only have 2 QBs on your 53 man roster and have a WR or RB effectively be your third QB (I know Marty did this a few years and the Colts have done it forever). No other inactive player can be activated during the game.

They will also have a practice squad of up to 8 additional players. The practice squad is composed of players who have been cut and gone through waivers without being signed by any other teams and are then signed to the practice squad. Not every player is eligible for the practice squad. The eligibility rules are:

No more than 3 years on the practice squad.

No more than nine games on the active list in a previous season.

- from the Collective Bargaining Agreement p.170 (interesting read if you are into this kind of stuff)

If the guys who are cut get cut Saturday around noon, they can be resigned to any team's active roster or practice squad on Sunday afternoon. All right, so you know the basics, so let's start counting!

First of all, the starters who we all agree will be starting opening day (injuries excepted of course)

#	Name	Pos.	Yrs.
1	Mike Scifres	P	7
2	Nate Kaeding	K	6
3	LaDainian Tomlinson	RB	9
4	Kris Dielman	G	7
5	Antonio Gates	TE	7
6	Nick Hardwick	C	6
7	Vincent Jackson	WR	5
8	Marcus McNeill	T	4
9	Philip Rivers	QB	6
10	Luis Castillo	DE	5
11	Stephen Cooper	ILB	7
12	Jamal Williams	DT	12
13	Antonio Cromartie	CB	4
14	Quentin Jammer	CB	8
15	Shawne Merriman	OLB	5
16	Shaun Phillips	OLB	6
17	Kevin Burnett	LB	5
18	Chris Chambers	WR	9
19	Jeromey Clary	T	3
20	Jacob Hester	FB	2

Now, the backups, critical specialty guys (Sproles, Cason, etc.), and guys in position battles where they are sure of making the team even if they aren't starting.

#	Name	Pos.	Yrs.
21	Malcom Floyd	WR	4
22	Kynan Forney	G	9
23	Brandon Manumaleuna	TE	9
24	Scott Mruczkowski	C	5
25	Legedu Naanee	WR	3
26	L.J. Shelton	T	11
27	Darren Sproles	RB	5
28	Billy Volek	QB	10
29	Charlie Whitehurst	QB	4
30	Ryon Bingham	DE-DT	5
31	Antoine Cason	CB	2
32	Jacques Cesaire	DE	7
33	Jyles Tucker	OLB	3
34	Eric Weddle	FS	3
35	Travis Johnson	DE	5
36	Buster Davis	WR	3

Let's throw in our top 3 draft picks and assume they are making the team no matter what.

#	Name	Pos.	Yrs.
37	Louis Vasquez	G	R
38	Larry English	OLB	R
39	Vaughn Martin	DE	R

We are through 39 spots on the roster and now we are to the spots where guys might need to worry about not making the roster. The veterans have the inside track on making the team, but could be dislodged by someone else, or even squeezed because of roster pressures elsewhere (For instance, what if Bignham isn't going to play until week 5, we would need to keep an additional DL until Bingham comes back. That could squeeze someone at a different position). First of all, here is where we stand depth-wise at all the positions (needed starters in parenthesis)

K/P (2) - 2
QB (1) - 3
RB (1) - 2
FB (1) - 1
TE (1) - 2
OT (2) - 3
OG/C (3) - 5
WR (2) - 5
DL (3) - 6
OLB (2) - 4
ILB (2) - 2
S (2) - 1
CB (2) - 3

Here is how I see the rest of it shaking out. I've added in a practice squad eligible (pse) column to mark guys that can be placed on the practice squad. If a guy is practice squad eligible, the team may be inclined to cut him and keep the non-eligible guy (all other things equal). Then they hope the guy makes it through waivers and they sign him to the practice squad and essentially keep both. The guys without a number by their name are the guys who don't make the team.

#	Name	Pos.	Yrs.	pse
40	Antwan Applewhite	OLB	2
41	Tim Dobbins	ILB	4
42	Clinton Hart	SS	7
43	Brandyn Dombrowski	G/T	1	X
44	Gartrell Johnson	RB	R	X
45	Ian Scott	DT	7
46	Brandon Siler	ILB	3
47	Kris Wilson	TE	6
48	Steve Gregory	DB-S	4
49	Paul Oliver	DB-S	3
50	Kassim Osgood	ST	7
51	Michael Bennett	RB	9
52	Kevin Ellison	S	R	X
53	David Binn	LS	16
	Darry Beckwith	ILB	R	X
	Mike Tolbert	FB	2
	Tyronne Green	C	R	X
	Ogemdi Nwagbuo	DT	1	X
	C.J. Spillman	FS	R	X
	Simeon Castille	CB	2
	Charly Martin	WR	R	X
	Corey Clark	OT	2	X
	Sam Allen	G	R	X
	Eric Bakhtiari	LB	1	X
	Ramarcus Brown	CB	R	X
	Jeremy Childs	WR	R	X
	Andre Coleman	DE	1	X
	James Holt	OLB	R	X
	Rashaad Jackson	DT	R	X
	Billy Latsko	FB	1	X
	Ryan McDonald	C	R	X
	Kory Sperry	TE	R	X
	Keith Grennan	DE	2	X

If the numbered guys at left make the roster, our position counts look like this:

K/P/ST (2) - 4
QB (1) - 3
RB (1) - 4
FB (1) - 1
TE (1) - 3
OT (2) - 3
OG/C (3) - 6
WR (2) - 5
DL (3) - 7
OLB (2) - 5
ILB (2) - 4
S (2) - 5
CB (2) - 3

QB(3) - Rivers, Volek, Whitehurst

RB/FB(5) - Tomlinson, Sproles, Hester, Bennett, Johnson

C/G/T(9) - Hardwick, Dielman, McNeill, Clary, Forney, Vasquez, Mruczkowski, Dombrowski, Shelton

TE(3) - Gates, Manumaleuna, Wilson

WR(5) - Jackson, Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, Davis

DL(7) - Castillo, Williams, Cesaire, Bingham, Martin, Scott, Johnson

OLB(5) - Merriman, Philips, English, Applewhite, Tucker

ILB(4) - Burnett, Cooper, Siler, Dobbins

S(5) - Weddle, Hart, Gregory, Ellison, Oliver

CB(3) - Cromartie, Jammer, Cason

ST(4) - Scifres, Kaeding, Binn, Osgood

There are plenty of debatable items above. Does Dombrowski beat out Green? Scott beat out Nwagbuo? Siler beat out Beckwith? I really don't know. I intentionally leaned the roster towards the vets, but that could shake out differently. Having Bingham injured but still on the roster means we have more DL than we might normally want. Three CBs seems like a bad idea, but maybe Oliver and Weddle can play it in a pinch.

Cutting the list of players down to 53 players leaves some good players on the street. I'm pretty sure I won't be right, but this is as good a place as any to start from.

San Diego Chargers Links 8/27

John (obviousman) — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 09:41:12 -0000

More photos » by Chris Park - AP

4 months ago: Seattle Seahawks' Justin Forsett is upended for a two-yard loss by San Diego Chargers Kevin Ellison during the third quarter of an NFL preseason football game Saturday, Aug. 15, 2009, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Chris Park)

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CHARGERS NOTES: English back in action, hopes to play Saturday
The outside linebacker was thrilled to be back on the field doing more than mental reps.

"I felt like I've been ready to go for a few days now," he said. "But it's probably good that I took the extra time, had a complete recovery and got back to 100 percent."

CHARGERS: Burnett sheds label and blockers
"Through two preseason games and training camp, he's been an exciting addition to our team," coach Norv Turner said. "He's got speed, he covers the field and he's a playmaker. He's going to help everyone on the defensive side make plays.

"That's why we wanted him and that's what we saw. The only thing you couldn't see much of was Kevin as an every down player. He's proven over two preseason games that he can handle it."

Cromartie continues to impress
Cromartie wasn't the only player making interceptions Tuesday. "Pick City!" the defense shouted after Kevin Ellison grabbed what was at least the fifth interception of the afternoon practice. Said Philip Rivers, who was intercepted on successive plays by Kevin Burnett and Cromartie: "That was brutal."

Bolts' Clary toughest on himself
"Jeromey Clary is a very underrated player," Turner said. "I like Jeromey and what he does for us. I know a lot of (fans) would disagree with me. We leave him by himself against a lot of good players. He held up great (in 2008), and I think he's going to continue to get better."

For sure, what was deduced as Clary messing up sometimes in 2008 was often actually right guard Mike Goff's inconsistency. The Chargers believe they have rectified that, but so far Clary has worked with two different guards in preseason games, as Kynan Forney and Louis Vasquez have taken turns being hurt.

In the sack is no place for Rivers, even in preseason
"During the regular season, I'm looking for continuity on offense, defense and special teams," A.J. Smith says. "During the preseason, I'm all over the place, looking around at players. If this happened during the regular season, I'd say we have a problem. I saw Peyton Manning went down four times. It's not pleasant, I agree. You can get hurt, but you can get hurt in practice. It torments me."

There's more to Chargers at tight end than Gates
The only thing that's certain is that they will be used. Toward the end of last season, the Chargers ran some three tight-end sets. Manumaleuna is now listed as a fullback as well as a tight end on the depth chart. And Wilson was a starter at the same position during his tenure with the Kansas City Chiefs.

When asked about his position this week, Wilson smiled and said, "Just put me in." Preference: "Playing."

Man Behind the Mask: Gartrell Johnson
"The thing I’ve learned the most from LT is how he carries himself on the field. He actually likes to check in with the defense during practice to see what everyone is doing. He’ll go over to the defensive backs and see what they are up to and then he’ll go talk to the safeties just to get an idea of how things are working so he can use that information to better his own game plan. That’s definitely something I’m trying to pick up on."

Castillo happy to feel healthy
Turner indicated Cesaire might not play in the preseason at all. Said Turner: "Whenever a guy goes a couple weeks and doesn't play, there is a level of concern. But I think he's going to be all right. I think he could play against San Francisco (in the Sept. 4 preseason finale) if that's what we choose to do. We've got him on schedule to be ready for the opener."

Opportunities arise for young linemen
With Jacques Cesaire, Ryon Bingham and Vaughn Martin out with injuries and Jamal Williams and Ian Scott resting Wednesday, the Chargers dressed just five defensive linemen Wednesday, and Luis Castillo was the only one of the group that has played in a regular-season game.

Do you have any thoughts about Bolts From The Blue? Any tips you want to send our way? Whenever you have something to say, don't hesitate to e-mail me directly.