SB Nation - Marcus McNeill

Chargers Defeat Cowboys 20-17, Continue Winning Streak

John (obviousman) — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 00:26:16 -0000

More photos » by Sharon Ellman - AP

1 day ago: San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (17) passes as Dallas Cowboys linebacker Anthony Spencer (93) and defensive end Stephen Bowen (72) defend in the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009 in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Sharon Ellman)

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Well, this day has worked out just lovely, hasn't it? The Chargers defeat the Cowboys, and look good doing it, and the Broncos and Bengals both lose their games. A win against the Bengals next week and Norv can start thinking about resting players on Christmas and against Washington.

This a team that's not just about their personnel, but about their coaching. Ron Rivera managed to hold the Cowboys to 10 points (those last 7 were in garbage time) with any run defense (outside of the goal line stand). Norv Turner looked like he knew every Dallas defensive call before Wade Phillips did. Play-calling on both sides of the ball was absolutely perfect. It's the performance of the coaching that has been the biggest factor in the Chargers winning 8 straight games in 2009, and 16 straight games in the month of December.

Philip Rivers won the battle of the QBs against Tony Romo, and I will not hear it differently. Romo had the benefit of a strong running game, and the defenses were playing just about the same, yet he could not consistently get first downs. Besides the 99 yard drive (that Tony was barely involved in), I was not very impressed by the Cowboys offense today. Rivers did everything he possibly could (including avoiding many rushes) to win this game and looked great doing it (besides the interception).

Some quick Bolts are below. As always, your feedback is appreciated and will be a part of the final selections after I re-watch the game.

Final - 12.13.2009	1	2	3	4	Total
San Diego Chargers	7	3	0	10	20
Dallas Cowboys	3	0	7	7	17

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Bolts & Dolts: San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

John (obviousman) — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 14:20:24 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

22 days ago: San Diego Chargers' Nate Kaeding (10) kicks a field goal during the first half of an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos, Sunday, Nov. 22, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

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I know, I know. "Everyone's a Bolt!" Not so fast. When the San Diego Chargers raise their game across the board, the criteria for being listed a Bolt or a Dolt is raised as well. This post is meant to spotlight players that had particularly good or bad games. It was a little more difficult in his game, since the Chargers played very well as a team, but I managed. Nit-picking is a specialty of mine.

Also, look out for some new features this week including the "Almost Bolts" and "Almost Dolts".

Bolts

Offense

Philip Rivers - 17/22, 145 yds, 1 TD. Those incomplete passes weren't even that bad. His first incompletion was a ball that was thrown away. The second was a ball knocked down at the line. I didn't even see the last two because I couldn't stay entertained watching the garbage time for a second time. In the first game of the season where he was not asked to carry the offense, Rivers was incredibly efficient.

Running Backs - 43 carries, 203 yds, 2 TDs. The Chargers are no longer the last team in the league in terms of rushing yards per game. They're 30th. Any idea who is 31st? The undefeated Indianapolis Colts. Take that, losers.

LaDainian Tomlinson - 20 carries, 73 yds, 1 TD. I have no idea what the negativeness after the game was about. Why are people sad to see LT producing at this level? If you thought he was going to be putting up 150 yards per game, you're nuts. There's a reason he broke a bunch of records in such a short timespan, and that's because most players' bodies could not stand the punishment that his body has taken for so long. At this point, with good blocking, he's a smart RB that is going to take what the defense gives to him. That's a big improvement over what he was earlier this season. 20 carries, about 80 yards and a TD every game would be perfect in my book.
Mike Tolbert - 7 carries, 58 yds, 1 TD. Everyone is so quick to look at Tolbert's body shape and say that he's the next Lorenzo Neal. They want him to be the big blocking back that's going to kill linebackers at the point of attack. The fact of the matter is, FBs like that are not nearly as useful in this offense and in today's NFL as FBs like Tolbert. Tolbert can run, catch and block. He's as strong as most linebackers and faster than most as well. He's just as dangerous with the ball in his hands as somebody like Darren Sproles. He's a faster, shiftier Mike Alstott. I couldn't be happier with the season he's having.
Jacob Hester - 7 carries, 46 yds. Apparently, with a bit of blocking, Hester is the RB that AJ Smith envisioned he could be. His 6.6 YPC certainly helped to beat up a downtrodden Denver Broncos team late in the game. I don't buy that he's finally figured it out, especially since he wasn't very good during the early part of the game (3 catches, 0 yards and a bunch of slips). Here's to hoping that's the player we see for the rest of the season though.

Wide Receivers - 12 catches, 137 yds, 1 TD. It all looked too easy. Antonio Gates was uncoverable. Vincent Jackson made some plays, but Philip didn't need to force the ball to him. Malcom Floyd made plays outside of the first quarter and is turning into Rivers' second favorite target on third downs. Legedu Naanee may have made the play of the game on his TD grab. Watch it again and see how badly he jukes D.J. Williams. The reason Rivers could throw the ball was because Williams had to turn his back to the line of scrimmage to try to catch Naanee after getting humiliated at the goal line.

Offensive Line - 4.7 Yards Per Carry, Zero Sacks Allowed. No, I still haven't heard anything more about Jeromey Clary besides that it's "serious". I could've told you that when Rivers, Eric Weddle and other players were coming up to the cart to wish Clary good luck. Those players know what the doctors are saying, and they know that will probably be the last time they share the field with Clary for a while.

Still, before and after that, the offensive line played great. The running backs had big holes to run through all game, and Rivers having all the time in the world is what made him so efficient. There wasn't a forced pass out of his 22 attempts. In the last few weeks, Kris Dielman, Scott Mruczkowski and Louis Vasquez have all gotten significantly better individually and as a group (Marcus McNeill has been really good all season). Hopefully they can hold onto that success once Nick Hardwick takes over the starting Center job again.

Defense

Shaun Phillips - 3 tackles, 1 sack. He makes the plays the offense allows him to make. You really can't ask for more than that. When he's not double-teamed, Shaun usually beats his man and makes the QB feel very uncomfortable in the pocket. When he has to cover a TE or RB, he's so close the QB is afraid to throw at him. Ron Rivera has done a great job of freeing him up to make more plays.

Kevin Burnett - 8 tackles, 2 sacks. If Burnett can ever figure out how to stay healthy, he could be a Pro Bowl player. He flat-out flies around the field, hitting people hard or at least wrapping them up cleanly. As good of a blitzer as Stephen Cooper is (was?), Burnett is much better. Remember all of the talk of the Larry English/Shaun Phillips/Shawne Merriman formation that would keep all 3 guys on the field with Phillips playing the "Wild Card" position? English hasn't been effective enough, but Burnett seems to fit that role just fine.

Eric Weddle - 6 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit. I called it towards the end of last year. Weddle is the best blitzer on the entire team. Not the best pass-rusher, but definitely the best blitzer. The better Paul Oliver plays in the secondary, the more Weddle is free to come flying around the corner and hit the QB. On top of changing yesterday's game with his blitzes, he played outstanding coverage and saved a TD and a bunch of Denver momentum with his tackle on Knowshon Moreno in the open field.

Antonio Cromartie - 4 tackles, 1 pass defense, 1 interception. Really this is a Bolt for Cromartie's play over the last 6 weeks. He didn't do anything special or different in yesterday's game that he hasn't already been doing for a month and a half now, he just got lucky enough to be in position to get his hands on the ball. He has been a complete and total shutdown corner, playing as good as or better than Quentin Jammer the entire time. Also, his episode of Chargers Roll as fantastic. He admitted that in the past he basically relied on his talent and didn't go 100% in practice, and that changing that around is what has made him better in the games. Even his tackling is much improved.

Steve Gregory - 3 tackles, 3 passes defended, 2 recovered fumbles. Apparently Steve Gregory and his physical play near the line of scrimmage was the key to the defense. Who knew? I don't think he made a mistake all game, and consistently put himself in position to stop the guy he was defending. Good things happen around Gregory, they seemingly always have, and that trend continued yesterday as he fell on top of two critical fumbles. Benching Antoine Cason in place of Gregory was absolutely the right move, and my questioning of it proves that I don't have what it takes to be an NFL coach.

Special Teams

Nate Kaeding - 4/4 FGs, 2/3 XPs. Did you hear that stat the commentators brought up about how many consecutive FGs Nate has made inside 40 yds? It was ridiculous. I don't recall it, but I recall thinking that it equaled out to more than an entire season. Kaeding is having a Pro Bowl-caliber season this year, and his performance in Denver (including a handful of touchbacks on kickoffs) cemented that.

Coaching

I'm not going to single out anybody. They've all been good. Norv Turner has been the cool hand to guide the team along and Ron Rivera has been the mad scientist who gets better at the 3-4 each week. Even the lesser-known coaches such as Hal Hunter, Don Johnson, Charlie Joiner, Ollie Wilson....they've all faced some obstacles this season and each one has brought their unit up to the level of a winning team. There are players that deserve accolades for this team being in 1st place in the division, and they'll get them, but just about every member of the Chargers coaching staff deserves a pat on the back for a fine job weathering the early-season storm.

Dolts

Offense

There were no offensive Dolts this week.

Defense

There were no defensive Dolts this week.

Special Teams

Darren Sproles - 3 punt returns, 6 PR yds, 1 fumble. Somebody has to teach Sproles how to fair-catch the ball. Please. His penchant for trying to catch it with a guy half a yard away from him is the type of minor flaw that could become a huge, glaring flaw in the postseason. Has he ever done anything great with one of those? There's really two options when he's catching the ball like that.

Fumble the ball, hopefully out of bounds.
Catch the ball, take a hard hit and hold onto the ball.

Almost Bolts

Paul Oliver - He's making it really hard for Kevin Ellison to get back on the field. Not only are his coverage skills really good, but he's starting to play with a mean streak and lay some big hits.
Shawne Merriman - Kindof. He almost deserves a Dolt as well, if you were just looking at the box score. However, if you watched the game you noticed that even Ryan Clady couldn't handle Shawne on his own and had a TE or RB to help on just about every play. This meant that the blitzers Rivera was bringing over the RT were running free, because the Broncos would rather have that than Merriman going one-on-one against their Pro Bowl LT.
James Holt - Great job on Special Teams, kid.

Almost Dolts

Kevin Ellison - When Oliver is playing as well as he is, you have to make a play and an impression on the coaching staff when they send you on the field. Playing 10 yards off of Tony Scheffler and not competing for the ball is not going to cut it.
Stephen Cooper - Cooper's terrible skills in zone coverage is what made it so easy for Kyle Orton to move Denver down the field at the end of the first half. Eventually, with a big enough lead, Rivera stopped calling zone and it stopped being such a big problem. It doesn't erase the fact that Cooper is a liability in zone coverage and everyone knows it.

Stat of the Day: Grading the San Diego Chargers Offensive Line

John (obviousman) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 11:42:45 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

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About a week ago, somebody in the comments here (and forgive me for forgetting who it was) pointed me in the direction of a former HS football coach who was grading Chargers offensive linemen on every single play to give everyone a good idea of who was playing well and who wasn't. He was posting his findings on Facebook and the Chargers.com forums, but not here.

I reached out to him, to see if I could convince him to post his stuff here as well. Seeing as how most of us are stat-geeks, I assured him there'd be an audience for it. I finally got my response yesterday, in the form of an awesome spreadsheet. Go ahead and click on that link. It should open up the spreadsheet, which shows Paul's grades on every play for the Chargers games played in Weeks 1, 2, 3 and 8.

Looking just at last week's game against Oakland would probably be the best way to gauge where the San Diego offensive line is at. Louis Vasquez and Scott Mruczkowski have had enough time that their mistakes should be behind them, the line has been healthy enough for the past few weeks that they should have started to gel. So here's how they ranked against the Raiders:

Marcus McNeill - 1.8482
Louis Vasquez - 1.8482
Kris Dielman - 1.8035
Jeromey Clary - 1.7946
Scott Mruczkowski - 1.7678

Did that surprise anybody? Me neither. McNeill and Vasquez have both been playing solid football all season (when healthy). Dielman is definitely not playing at a Pro Bowl level. Clary has been good, but not great. Mooch has shown himself to be an okay backup, but not a potential starter.

Looking back at the Week 1 game in Oakland, the highest rated offensive lineman by far was Nick Hardwick. Hopefully he can get back this week and be the piece that gets the offensive line back to being dominating.

I know these stats are somewhat arbitrary. Somebody's opinion rather than official statistics. However, when it comes to offensive linemen this is really all we have. I think Paul has done an excellent job breaking down these games (you can get lost in that spreadsheet of his), and I look forward to seeing what he brings to the table in the future.

One stat I noticed, while perusing the stats for these four games, is how far the offensive balance has come. In the first 3 games of the season, the closest the Chargers got to "balance" was when they threw only 11 times more than they ran it against the Dolphins. In the Week 8 game against the Raiders, Norv called 28 runs to go with the 28 passes. How's that for balance?

Broncos Thoughts & Musings, Part 3: Ravens Week

Emmett Smith — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 12:30:20 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

2 months ago: Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels reacts to the game winning touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/ Jack Dempsey )

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I found myself looking around the 'Net at stats and articles, as I often do. The outcome was an increased emphasis on examining our defense (since the offense was already a big part of Part II) and a longer look at the Baltimore Ravens. Their situation brought out a chance to talk about the history of the passing game in the NFL as well as the inevitable upcoming game prediction, so settle in and let's take a walk through the last of the October BT&M.

Name that Gloom

It's been a lot of fun watching folks locally and nationally scrambling to name the Broncos defense this season. From my perspective, the search for a name for the Denver D isn't a big concern. Do you want a description? While it's not poetic, the best way to describe them may be 'sulfuric acid' - when you pour them onto an offense, that opponent's abilities quickly dissolve and it begins to stink. They are a gloomsday defense, one that shreds the confidence of the cockiest (yep, looking at you, Crimea Rivers), destroys their morale, and along with Orton's skills in the 4th quarter, ensures an outcome that is only happy to those in predominantly orange. Two third-down conversions in the 2nd halves of games, and both of those within the first two games makes it nearly impossible for an opposing team to win a close game. If you can't score, you can't win. Just ask the Pats, Cowboys or Chargers.

And Baltimore, as talented as they are, has to play the Broncos who are coming off a bye and who have had 2 weeks to prepare. I like the Ravens, but not in this matchup. I expect another great, rugged, physical game. When the Broncos are in the playoffs after this season, no one will be able to suggest that they got there any way but the toughest. There's no better way to prepare for the playoffs than going up against the best during the regular season.

The Essence of Defense

I was re-watching for the 15th time the play that ended in Darrell Reid's sack during the late stages of the SD game. Some things happened during it that defined for me a big reason that the Broncos are winning so effectively. Chargers were on a third-and-long situation, an obvious passing down. The defense lined up in its base 5-2 - apparently. But once the ball was snapped, all heck broke loose.

Vonnie Holliday, who's been a stellar pickup, was manning the RDE. At the snap, he drove into the left guard's (Pro Bowler Kris Dielman) right shoulder and bulldozed him back and then into the left tackle, Marcus McNeill, whose attention had been fixed on Robert Ayers (lined up outside on the weakside). Ayers left off and tried a stunt up the middle, but he didn't get there. While Holliday was taking out two linemen and Ayers was trying to stunt, Davis came up the middle through the exposed gap and forced Philip Rivers to the back where Darrell Reid was pushing through from the strongside - sack! Reid received a sack on the play, but Holliday, Ayers and Davis, combined, didn't scratch the scorecard. Their effort just made the play work. Not only did he tie up two defenders, Holliday opened a hole that would have created a run-to-daylight TD had it been on the offensive side. The linebackers made the play on Rivers, who is one of the best in the league at handling the blitz and who still didn't have a chance. That explained the lack of the Chargers' scoring after halftime. Another gold star to Mike Nolan, another win for Denver. And Vonnie?

"We'd love all of our players to have the same leadership qualities Vonnie Holliday does, but we knew Vonnie Holliday could still be an active, productive football player in our scheme," Josh McDaniels said.

Two more quick thoughts on this: First, check out this article on the development of Robert Ayers. The reason that I'm adding it now is that Ayers has consistently done much the same that Holliday did -- driving to the QB, tying up 1-2 defenders, plugging his gaps and letting Doom rack up the sacks. We are stat-obsessed at times and much of the distaste I've heard regarding Ayers is a classic example of that. He's doing a great job for a young OLB/DE. We're lucky to have him - but it wasn't luck at all. McDaniels/Xanders knew exactly what they wanted when they chose him.

Next, we need to keep something in mind -- the 49ers didn't do at all well with Mike Nolan's defenses. Why? They complained frequently that his shifts, adjustments and schemes were 'too confusing, too complex'. The Broncos went out and got intelligent players for whom this isn't a problem. Consider the article from the Denver Post by Dave Krieger -- in his defense, the latest columnist to chomp on blackbird and enjoy the taste -- which talks about how effectively the Broncos change things at halftime (throughout the game, really) and how their players execute the changes without a walkthrough. It's a good example of this same principle.

When I broke down the film from the Chargers game, I quickly found that they had tremendous difficulties figuring out how to block the Broncos defensive rush. That wasn't exactly a shock, but a lot of it was that they could not, as Josh McDaniels pointed out last Thursday, use the running back, for example, to block a certain player because they never really knew if that player was coming or not. LaDainian Tomlinson, in fact, often chose the wrong lane to try and stop a rusher, only to find out that someone else had blown by him and gotten to Rivers. Eventually, Rivers didn't make many throws without a Bronco in his face or on his back. Small wonder that he couldn't score late.

By the way, it was nice to see Le Kevin Smith in on a few of those tackles. He's another perfect pickup who brings the skill, experience and talent that the Broncos needed to win right away. What depth this team has!

Safety in Numbers

Josh Barrett's ability to shut down the TE was evidenced again against Antonio Gates, who is still one of the best TEs in the game. Darcel McBath's overall skill has worked in the secondary and on special teams, while David Bruton's appearance on ST blocks and tackles helped spring Eddie Royal on both returns for TDs. These are all reasons to love the Broncos' young safety squad. We have three talented, hard-working young men who are learning from some of the best players in the league,as well as some of the best coaches. All three have been among the best stories on special team. Darcel McBath appears able to do anything we ask of him and Barrett now has shown that he can handle Gates as well as Tony Gonzales. When Wesley Woodyard struggles on the TE, expect to see Barrett out on the field more often. Barrett is being developed slowly, as befits a player who came into the league so raw, and he has the physical gifts to excel as he matures. Bruton may be the slowest of the three to develop, in the end, but that doesn't mean that he's in any way a disappointment. I've already heard folks wondering what we'll do when Dawkins retires (at about age 52). We've got three solid young options to develop against that day. I know that folks are talking about Eric Berry or Taylor Mays, but we've got exactly what we need - young, smart, skillful, hardworking players that can do their jobs.

That's something that we've been conditioned, as fans, to overlook. We are drawn to glitz, to fame and personality. There's nothing wrong with that per se, but that's not how the Patriots became a perennial power and it isn't how the Broncos will stay one. Getting marquee players is fine, so don't misunderstand me. I love Mays and Berry.and they'll be solid-to-great players in the NFL. But by establishing the three young players that we have, just as we are doing with Jack Williams and Alphonso Smith at CB and Ryan McBean, Robert Ayers and several others, we're creating a team that won't have huge cap issues, that fields a squad of tough, smart players who are focused on winning and execution, and who may have less stars, but will have more winners. In the end - that's what it's all about.

Taking Your Best Shot

I had to laugh at the blurb TedB did on shots this week, with the resultant recipes and member preferences. Great stuff, folks. At this point, my choice of shots tends to be morphine or Dilaudid. Wusses... ;-)

Final Thought - The Ravens

I don't really believe that anything the Broncos did in seasons past bears much on this year. For that reason, although the Broncos have a history of winning coming off the bye week, I don't see that as relevant. On the other hand, most teams play well with an extra week of rest and the Broncos will follow suit. They will have an extra week to gameplan, too, and that's never going to be a bad thing with our coaching staff. I don't discount the Ravens staff, either.

So, let's look at Baltimore. I see a very good team on both sides of the ball and one that may have its back to the wall. They're at home, and they're coming off a bye (but so are we). They are showing some weaknesses in their defensive secondary, and that's to the advantage of Denver. Orton's arm has proven more than strong enough to pick apart a team that leaves holes, especially if the rush doesn't reach Orton. Our offensive line will have its work cut out for it in the running game, but as the last two games showed, the Ravens can be beaten on the ground. This is a great opportunity for Knowshon Moreno to shine, and Correll Buckhalter is going to get a lot of chances as well. It's close, but I believe that our offense can overcome the Ravens defense in a close, hard-fought game.

But while this is a change in Baltimore, stopping their offense will be very tough, even for a defense as gifted as the Broncos. One big reason is the running game - Ray Rice is a heck of a back and their line is blocking well for him. The other is the way that the Ravens have delved into history to establish a passing offense that takes advantage of the skills of Joe Flacco, who was underestimated by many coming out of college. The abilities of Baltimore offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, who is at the top of his game, are nothing to take lightly. As far as Cameron goes, here's some thoughts:

Everyone knows how much I enjoy the history, skills and writings of Bill Walsh. While he has a special place in my heart, I like to go out of my way to credit Sid Gillman and Paul Brown for much of what Walsh developed into his own approach. On the other side of the passing game, the vertical passing game side that also traces to Sid Gillman, you have the 'Air Coryell' style approach - the vertical game. Many coaches have used and improved upon it, but Coryell was in many ways the key to its development. There is even a legitimate argument that these are the two most important forks in the passing game road, although by no means the only important ones. Both came down from the works of Sid Gillman. Most NFL teams will tend to use more of one or the other of these two iconic approaches.

The Ravens tend to bend more to the Coryell approach. Coryell took the old 'passing tree' concept and improved on it in his own ways. Every offensive coordinator, even those that fans (including, I'm ashamed to admit, myself) tend to see as 'conservative', such as Ron Turner, takes those routes and concepts and turns them into a bewildering confabulation of lines, twists, routes, concepts and options. The Walsh-based systems tend to emphasize timing routes and the shorter game (although not ignoring the mid- and deep-passing game, as some have claimed) and prefers to name the routes, while the Coryell-ancestry systems will blend a passing game that is delineated with numbers and is more heavily based off of the '9' (go) route. But every modern system is complex, weaving incredible variations of routes that look more like a pile of malaria germs than trees.

Within all modern systems, you also have a great emphasis on having the receiver see, dissect and recognize the various coverages and to adjust his routes accordingly to find the weaknesses in the coverage. The quarterback has to instantly see, understand and adapt to those changes, which is one reason that a smart QB can be more dangerous than a stronger one. The routes are not necessarily etched in stone. Sometimes they are fluid and adaptive, making the connection between receivers and quarterback essential to success. That's something that many seem to have ignored when Orton didn't fly out of the gate like Brady in 2007. It will always take a while for the receivers and quarterbacks to learn each other's patterns, tendencies and skillsets. The skill of the receivers at coming out of their breaks instantly and smoothly is often the difference between a completion and a failure.

Here's a Broncos example: Late during the Chargers game, with the Broncos driving, Brandon Stokley made an adjustment to the Chargers coverage that Orton had never seen (and which Stokley claims that he'd never used before) on the fly. Orton saw, understood and used it, throwing the pass where only Stokes could get it and the result was adding 6 to the Broncos' total. The ability of the seasoned receiver to use the basics of the system, analyze the defense and to adapt the route to the personnel and coverage to produce a completion is an essential aspect of modern success with the offensive game.

In the same way, Brandon Marshall communicated a weakness in the Dallas defense to Orton and told him to look for a certain variation on the hitch route if Terrence Newman acted a certain way, indicating a certain coverage. That pass was good for 6 points and the victory over the Cowboys. The reason that some fans argued that it wasn't 'really' a hitch route is that it was, but Orton and Marshall had also agreed on the way that they would vary it to defeat the coverage.

This may seem a bit long-winded, but here's the point: The Ravens have gotten very, very good at this. They like the vertically-based system, whose weakness is that it takes just a moment or two longer to set up. Flacco has the intellect and the arm - the intellect scares me more. His receivers have been doing a solid job of breaking down the defenses, and the offensive coordinator has been very good this year, despite the recent three loses. Flacco has learned a lot about his receivers and they are getting very good at creating options for him to employ. If you add the power running approach that they are playing and playing well, this is a team with a lot of strengths and not that many weaknesses.

But as we've seen, they can be beaten. I think that this may be the toughest game so far, and because of that, it's the one I'm looking forward to the most. We have a very challenging schedule, but this game, like all of them, is still winnable. We have to get to Flacco, our secondary has to continue to be titanium and our offense has to put points on the board. Nothing deep there - just hard-nosed football. But the Ravens pass rush hasn't been stout and the Broncos O-line has.

I saw cornerback Frank Walker get utterly hosed by the Vikings on more than one play and he had been brought in to replace Fabian Washington, who was even worse. Our receivers need to play well, but what's new? The Ravens have also given up two 100-yard rusher games in the past two tries. They gave up 77 total points in losses to New England, Cincinnati and Minnesota and we've beaten two of those teams. I wouldn't read too much into that, though - the losses were by a combined 11 points. The Ravens are in it each week.

They miss Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard, although Ed Reed is as dangerous as ever. Tavares Gooden isn't the same caliber as Scott, not that that's an insult to him. Our visiting friend Bruce Raffel from the Ravens SB Nation site says that Gooden will probably be tasked with covering Tony Scheffler, and if so, there's a huge mismatch there. Cornerback is a tough issue for Baltimore: In addition to the problems with Washington and Walker, Chris Carr looks sloppy at times and I expect to see more of Lardarius Webb. The Ravens have given up 25 plays of 20 yards or more, though, and that's not how you win championships. At this point, a championship is what the Broncos are obviously playing for, although I don't see them getting ahead of themselves. Big plays may decide this game.

I believe that McDaniels will pull out more of his seemingly infinite bag of tricks and give the Ravens the toughest challenge that they have faced this year. Due to the factors on the Ravens side -- home field, bye and having their backs to the wall -- I'm calling it a one point victory, and I think that it will come down to the 4th quarter. The Broncos are, right now, the meanest 4th quarter team in the NFL, and that should be the difference in the game. Broncos 24-23 in a nail-biter.

I'll see you in a couple of weeks, my friends. Go Broncos!

Doc

Stat of the Day: Chargers' Offensive Linemen

John (obviousman) — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 20:00:38 -0000

Holy crap. I just found the most in-depth stats for offensive linemen and I couldn't be happier. Not by the stats (haven't scoured them all yet), but just by having a legitimate way for statistical analysis on offensive linemen. Let's look through the Chargers' offensive linemen through the first 6 games of 2009 and see how they've played.....

	G	Pen	Pen Yds	False Start	Holding	Sacks Allwd	Sack Yds
McNeill	6	0	0	0	0	3.0	21.5
Dielman	6	2	20	1	0	1.0	3.5
Hardwick	1	0	0	0	0	0.5	1.0
Vasquez	4	0	0	0	0	1.0	11.0
Clary	6	2	15	1	1	4.5	25.5
Mruczkowski	6	1	10	0	1	0.5	5.0
Dombrowski	6	4	25	2	1	1.0	8.0

The one thing I don't like about these stats is that they're all about pass-protection. Looking at these, Louis Vasquez looks like he's having the best year. Then again, at times he's been a weakness in the running game (he doesn't pull very well). Also, it's not surprising that Jeromey Clary and Marcus McNeill's sack numbers are higher than everyone else's, consider they're going up against the best pass-rushers on the opposing team every week.

All in all, the offensive line's protection of Philip Rivers has not been good. The star QB has been sacked on 6.6% of passing plays, 20th worst in the league. Now, with the stats factored in, is my personal ranking of the Chargers offensive linemen this season (with Nick Hardwick left out):

McNeill
Vasquez
Dielman
Clary
Mruczkowski
Dombrowski

By the way, to compare some of these stats against past seasons.....

Marcus McNeill allowed 3 sacks in all of 2008 and allowed 9.5 in 2007. Statistically, McNeill has had 1 bad season (2007) and 2.5 really good ones.
Kris Dielman's 2009 numbers are on-pace to be pretty much average for him. However, I think where he's struggled is in run-blocking. I think he misses Hardwick next to him.
Statistically, Jeromey Clary is having a worse season in 2009 than he had in 2008. He allowed 7 sacks in 2008 and he's on pace to allow 12 in 2009. He's gotten better at avoiding false starts though. I believe the team signed him to a 1-year deal in hopes that they'd see improvement. Although I thought, from watching the games, that he was having a better year....that appears to not be the case.

The Offensive Line Part 2: The Transition

John Morgan — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 17:58:30 -0000

This is the season Seattle lost Steve Hutchinson and the foundation of its offensive line began to crumble. Walter Jones was still among the very best at his position, but he was 32 and would turn 33 less than a week after Seattle was bumped out of the playoffs.

That run was paved in part by Tim Ruskell's first ever pick, Chris Spencer, replacing an effectively retired Robbie Tobeck, and rookie Rob Sims replacing the irreplaceable Hutchinson. When Spencer and Sims helped spring an already washed-up Shaun Alexander for 108 yards and two touchdowns against the sixth-ranked Bears rush defense, all was right, Ruskell was in good graces and the future of the Seattle Seahawks seemed bright.

The line was crumbling though. Jones was approaching old, and the intolerance to pain medication that once stood as a testament to his greatness began to loom as a horrible "what if?" Sims could not replace Hutchinson. Chris Gray was 36. Without that insane left side to protect him, Sean Locklear could no longer be trumped up by contrived stats. Seattle was halfway between the collapse of an all-time great offensive line and a rebuilding effort that couldn't possibly be as successful.

Seattle did not invest much into rebuilding the line in 2006. The draft was a bit top heavy and talent poor. Seattle could have selected Guy Whimper with its Sims pick, Willie Colon, Chris Kuper or Jeromey Clary, but if Sims has maybe not been the most valuable lineman selected in the second day, he has been a good player for the pick and more successful than much of his class.

Seattle could have spent an earlier pick but didn't. It's almost impossible to argue that had Seattle kept spent its first or second round picks on offensive linemen, it would be a better team today. Its first round pick, Kelly Jennings, has busted, but so has Winston Justice, selected 39^th, and neither Deuce Latui, 41^st, nor Daryn Colledge, 47^th, strike me as significantly better players than Sims. It could have made a play at a tackle like Marcus McNeill, Andrew Whitworth, Jeremy Trueblood or Eric Winston, but it believed itself set at tackle, and it seemed to be.

Instead, Ruskell added Tom Ashworth. Ashworth was awful: Another body on the pile of winners and veterans that Ruskell has burdened the team with. But Ashworth was fourth string and therefore as likely to play as Kyle Williams. Sean Locklear had been healthy to that point. Ashworth was behind Jones, Locklear, Ray Willis and even Floyd Womack.

Injuries became a factor. Locklear missed five games. Willis missed 15 and was put on IR. Womack was starting at left guard. Locklear's injury forced Ashworth into action and he played like the fourth string tackle he was. The line did not play well and compared to 2005, it was awful.

The talent Ruskell had added was good. It was young and cheap and seemed promising. The line had declined from a peak it could not possibly reach again, but where it had been expensive, aged, but elite, it was now turning into cheap, young and serviceable.

Matching up with the Chargers

Emmett Smith — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 12:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

Denver Broncos coach Josh McDaniels salutes the crowd after the Broncos defeated the New England Patriots 20-17 in overtime in an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

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Living in San Diego now (up north, in Carlsbad), I've had a classic opportunity to follow and spy on the Chargers. Milling around the town, lounging on the beach, watching the newspapers and the tube analysis, as well as breaking down the games, I had a year-long chance to get a little insight into the team. I wanted to share with you some of the things that I've seen over that time. The Bolts are a walking contradiction, just as they are every year, of late. They're starting slow, they have seemed unmotivated and they're been fighting injuries. They are going to be playing for their season, though. It's a great Monday night matchup, and I'm going to enjoy it.

So saying, here's to 5-0, 6-0, and another Monday Night slugfest!

Denver vs. San Diego

This is probably one of the best opportunities that Denver will have this year. They can take this one on the road and put SD in a deep, deep hole - IF they can control the tempo of this game. I've been living in SD for 15 months now, and spying on the Chargers organization the entire time. I have a lot of respect for them. Taking them lightly will get you beaten, but Denver won't do that. In that fact, can lie the road to victory.

Let's take it one area at a time. I'm going to start where every game starts - with the Trench Warfare (dedicated to firstfan):

Denver O-line vs. the Chargers D-line.

This is one battle that I think Denver can win hands down. Again - I'm not suggesting that it will be easy, just that it's very winnable. Ryan Clady is the best in the game. Ryan Harris is healthier, Casey Wiegmann is doing fine and while I'm not excited about Russ Hochstein, I do think that he's up to the job. I also think that Chris Kuper is better than any fans (even Denver fans) give him credit for. Like most fans, I'm worried about Ben Hamilton, but I do think that he's up to this one if he plays. Perhaps he will do better at center, perhaps he's fading a bit. That's why grooming Seth Olsen makes so much sense.

On the Bolts' side of the ball, it's a different story. Jamal Williams is injured; he's also pushing 35, is gone for the year, and (in my mind) probably won't be back next season. He's most likely done, and SD didn't find anyone to get prepared and polished for this moment. Bad planning, A.J. Smith (Chargers GM). Igor Olshansky was uneven in his play and a problem in the locker room last year, so they don't miss him. However, Ryon Bingham was supposed to replace him and he's on injured reserve. Jacques Cesaire, backing up Bingham, has some injury problems of his own. A local rookie made good in Ogemdi Nwagbuo is trying to handle NT.

Luis Castillo has been uneven but can't be overlooked. Monster Vaughn Martin from Canada isn't ready for the NFL game, but he's probably the Chargers' future at NT, at least as the roster is currently set. The Chargers found a warm body in Alfonso Boone, formerly of the Chiefs. If a Chiefs castoff is your option at DL, you're in seriously deep kimchi (Note - Seoul Food, on 6th Avenue, is/was a very fine restaurant for those who like Korean cuisine). Travis Johnson, a recent Chargers acquisition from the Houston Texans, has had issues with motivation and injury; but he will now be back for Monday's game, as will all players except Center Nick Hardwick. The current plan is for Johnson to take some of the reps at NT which he played for 14 games in 2008 for Houston, although that was in a 4-3 line.

Backing up the front line on the Chargers side are the linebackers. Shawne Merriman is still trying to recover from his knee surgery. He won't be fully back until next season (and he may be working for another team by then), but he will be on the field. The rest of the Chargers LBs are good, but not stars; they brought in Kevin Burnett from Dallas, and he's played well. 1st-round draft pick Larry English will be a very good-to-great one, but not this year. Shaun Phillips, Antwan Applewhite, Stephen Cooper, Tim Dobbins, and Brandon Siler fill out the squad. Jyles Tucker spent some time injured last year, but he showed enough for the Chargers to know that he has serious potential. Even so, they aren't a bad squad, but they seem disorganized and unmotivated. The Broncos have a chance here to paste one on them.

Denver's offensive playmakers vs. Chargers secondary:

The first fact that Denver has to face is that one of the trade-offs to Kyle Orton's incredible home record is that he hasn't been as effective on the road prior to this season. That may not be a concern, since everything this year is different, but it's something to watch for. Orton's numbers are good and becoming much more so.

In fact, Orton has a better QB rating right now than Philip Rivers. He's got a much better TD/INT ratio (Orton - 7/1, Rivers - 6/3 in 1 fewer game). Orton also has an INT percentage of 0.6%; Rivers is 12th in the league at 2.0% - not bad, but not as good. Overall, Rivers is a top-5 QB -- in theory. But right now, his playmakers aren't producing like Orton's and that's affecting his numbers.

The Denver running game is better than the Chargers' front 7. Knowshon Moreno is coming into his own, and he's going to be very good indeed. LaDainian Tomlinson has been out, injured. He should be back, but even so - he's been playing like he's getting older and isn't the same. I love Darren Sproles, but he's not an all-game answer.

The Denver WRs could have a stellar day. The secondary of SD is being coached by Steve Wilks, formerly of Chicago a friend of Ron Rivera's who came over to help Ron out. The Bolts are playing in the secondary like they're being coached by Pee Wee Herman.

I speak periodically with Bolts From The Blue Contributing Editor Brian; he got his start on MHR and he's a well-informed, interesting guy who is open about sharing his knowledge. This is what he had to say about the Chargers' secondary following their loss to the Steelers...

I think it's also time to pull Cromartie for Cason; he is just a train wreck out there. And why Rivera stuck with deep zones when they were eating us alive underneath, I have no clue. I still have a lot of belief in the linebackers, but time will tell. We have almost no sacks; from AJ's perspective he is losing a ton of talent this year and these guys look to be mailing it in sometimes. I guess that is the heart of it; they perform exceptionally in spots and weakly in others, it is strange considering how many could be making a play for a starting job.

I don't have a lot to add. He's pretty much nailed it. Eric Weddle was laid out by the Steelers, Clinton Hart was doing so-so but the Chargers released him Wednesday in a surprise move in order to add DT Ian Scott. Antonio Cromartie looks terrible. Steve Gregory is playing alright, but this isn't a group that inspires confidence. At this point, they claim that they're still not sure who will start in Hart's place, but 6th round pick Kevin Ellison is one option. When you consider that they aren't stopping the run effectively and that the line isn't bringing pressure to stop the pass, this could be a long day for the Chargers defense.

Chargers offense against the Denver defense:

Philip Rivers is always dangerous; in fact, he's the only reason that SD is in the race at all. The Chargers O-line has been porous and despite his relative mobility, Rivers has been sacked 10 times in 4 games. His QB rating is down to 90.2 after a year's rating of 105.5 last year. It's mostly because of the O-line, and I'll get to that in a moment.

But there is a strength that I haven't discussed for the Chargers. Before the season I was talking to Brian, of Bolts from the Blue; he noted that Rivers had a lot of skills and strengths, but that he just hadn't mastered the long ball yet. His deep passes were a weakness that other teams could exploit. That's not at all so anymore. Rivers has completed 16 passes of 20 yards or longer, with 4 surpassing 40 yards; both place him among the NFL's leaders despite having been on bye last week.

Look for Rivers to throw mostly out of the shotgun. After going from the shotgun on 16 of his 39 drops (41%) at Oakland Week 1, Rivers was in the shotgun 29 times in 47 drops (62%) against the Ravens and 27 times in 35 drops (77%) against the Dolphins. Rivers needs the extra time since his line has been so weak. The Broncos secondary has been strong thus far; this could be their toughest challenge yet.

Trench Warfare:

LT Marcus McNeill had two surgeries during the offseason. LG Kris Dielman went to his second Pro Bowl last season - he's very good. They did lose C Nick Hardwick until at least November, and he's been replaced by Scott Mruczkowski. They cut Mike Goff at right guard (who then went on to infect Kansas City) and replaced him by drafting Louis Vasquez, who has fought injuries as a rookie but should play Monday. Jerome Clary is uneven at right tackle, and Elvis Dumervil may snack on him as the game wears on. In fact, I do not believe that the Chargers can stand up to our DL over the course of a full game. That is probably our ace in the hole. Like All QBs, Rivers can get frustrated if he's harassed.

Expect the Chargers to feature their TEs and use more max protection Monday. Antonio Gates is still strong and effective, and the Chargers have two young talents in Brandon Manumaleuna and Kris Wilson who are perfect for their roles. Both are good blockers, can run routes, go in motion, and confound opposing defensive coordinators. I see the tight ends as one of the Chargers' biggest strengths.

On the other side of the ball is a Denver group that doesn't have a single well-known household name, but they play like unbridled fury. Ronald Fields and Marcus Thomas are splitting time at NT, and both look good. The starting ends have been surprising players - Ryan McBean (formerly of the Steelers practice squad) and Kenny Peterson, and they are rotated with Vonnie Holliday. Le Kevin Smith isn't back from his knee injury fully, but he is a solid backup. The front seven is rounded out with a big group of linebackers. Elvis 'Doom' Dumervil and Mario Haggan are backed by Darrell Reid and Robert Ayers. At ILB, D.J. Williams and Andra Davis are leading the team in tackles. This isn't an even contest - the Broncos have the advantage across the board. I expect them to notch a few sacks on Rivers. If they can harass him into mistakes, this could turn ugly for the Bolts.

Rushing to Victory

I believe that the Chargers are in trouble here. Tomlinson has already been injured. He's dangerous if he's healthy this Monday, as is predicted, but he's not the player he once was. Like the team overall, I don't recommend underestimating LDT, but he can be stopped, especially behind that line. The Chargers have a potent weapon in Darren Sproles on kickoffs and in relief of LDT. Michael Bennett is also an option. They Chargers surprised me by cutting Gartrell Johnson, who only had one good game in preseason but was a 4th round pick: I believe that admits indicates sloppy drafting.They can hurt Denver here, but the O-line has to step up for that to happen.

On the other hand, Knowshon Moreno is coming into his own and is running behind a very good Denver O-line, which is bad news for the rest of the league. My only concerns with Knowshon were that he might be a little light for the league - he's put in the time in the weight room to counteract that and will continue to get tougher, and that I honestly didn't know if he was the kind of player that Bobby Turner wanted. I wasn't convinced that he wasn't, just interested to see what Denver thought. Could he pick up and play within the system? The answer to both questions is a resounding "Yes". Correll Buckhalter may be back, which would make the game easier. I'm disappointed in Peyton Hillis so far, and LaMont Jordan is a good back for running out the clock and a very good receiver, but his minutes will be limited. The Broncos are near the top of the league in rushing with 139 yards per game and have a nice average of 4.6 YPA. They will be hard to stop and the Chargers haven't been great at stopping the run.

Slow Starts:

What is it with the slow starts in San Diego? Ever since Norv Turner came to town, the trend has been to stink up the beginning of the year and to firm up later. With the Broncos coming into the game undefeated, that just won't cut it in the AFC West. The Bolts need to wake up NOW if they are to have any chance at all in the division, much less in the playoffs.

I did a little checking, and it seems that historically the Chargers have had recurring issues in this regard. In fact, they are the only team since 1970 to make the playoffs after a 0-4 start, having managed that in 1992 (Final regular season record, 11-5 that year). At 2-2, they aren't in that kind of trouble, but unless they pull themselves together, they soon will be.

That's the big potential trap here - the Chargers have had two weeks to game-plan, which puts them almost even with an 8-day Josh McDaniels plan. They are at home, they are coming off a bye week, and they are fighting for the season. A loss at this point could end their Super Bowl aspirations for the year. They may be a very tough team on Monday night; but they are still, without question, vulnerable. Unless they can really put a lot of points on the board early, the Denver defense will probably shut them down in the second half.

A last point on SD:

I've been hearing from some intelligent Chargers fans that there "wasn't anyone out there who could have an impact at NT (and a few other positions)". I've had to bite my tongue before casually asking if they'd looked at Ron Fields lately. The fact is, there were good players at many of the positions that SD now needs sitting out there this past offseason. You can get a good look at most of them on the Broncos roster next Monday night. Blame this one firmly on A.J. Smith, who was too smart for his own good this time.

With all of these factors in mind, this has the makings of another great game. SD will be highly motivated - they're at home, the numbers favor them becuase they're coming off a bye at home and they know that their season may well rest on this game. That and their offense (other than the line) are concerns.

The Broncos, on the other hand, will be prepared.They will be well aware of the dangers. They will be recipients of the McDaniels/Nolan game plans. We have the same offense that has scored when ever it had to and which is looking to break the habit of starting slowly. They can - they know each other better each week. SD isn't, frankly, as good as New England. Could we drop emotionally. Honestly, not on Monday Night Football. I see that as a small benefit - our guys are given a chance to prove, on national and international TV, who they are.

They will. Broncos over the Bolts, 27-24. Rivers has a good night, Doom gets a couple of sacks and Orton continues to do his job and do it well. How's that for playing it safe?

Go Broncos!

If I Were the San Diego Chargers' GM: Q1 Review

John (obviousman) — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 17:08:32 -0000

More photos » by Jack Smith - AP

Being the Chargers GM must be awesome. (AP Photo/Jack Smith)

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My greatest love, as it pertains to football, is personnel. Even during an entertaining, late season game my brain can't help from scouting the players on my screen and thinking about improvements that need to be made to the roster. Even in the very early stages of an unpredictable season, I love nothing more than to throw my GM hat on and pretend I'm A.J. Smith.

I have two dream jobs. Well, three I guess. Number one would be playing Quarterback in the NFL. However, I'm about 4 inches shorter than Drew Brees and 9 inches shorter than Philip Rivers, so that might be hard. I will admit that I've always been an accurate passer in my backyard and even won my wife a stuffed duck on one of those boardwalk games where you have to hit the target inside of the swinging tire. Still, that one ain't happening.

My second dream job would be as GM in the NFL. This is the reason I look through stats endlessly and the reason I've read Ernie Accorsi's book twice already. If I could one day be the GM of any NFL team, I think I'd skip everywhere instead of walking. Also, I'd do it for free.

My third dream job I'm practically doing. It would be to write about the San Diego Chargers. To share my passion and contribute words to the world that are appreciated, even if it's by a small group of people.

So while writing about it, I'm going to be doing quarterly looks ahead to see the potential holes in the roster in 2010 and to tel you what I would do if I were Mr. Smith. My first attempt at this is after the jump.

Free Agents

Team FAs

Since I don't want to write this post two different ways every time I do it, let's go off the assumption that there will be a new CBA in place by time free agency rolls around. Here's who the Chargers are at risk of losing:

Who to Keep

Vincent Jackson
Brandon Manumaleuna
Marcus McNeill
Tim Dobbins

Look, the WR situation is not as bad as it might seem. Where will we find the money to pay VJ? Simple. We'll give him Chambers' money. Chris is one of the top 20 WRs in the league in terms of base salary. Moving that money over to Jackson, plus VJ's current salary and a little extra, should be enough to keep this dynamic WR in San Diego for another 5 years as least. That's a move that I would do as GM.

Manumaleuna can be kept because he'd probably be cheap. He's an effective blocking TE who can fill in at OT or FB in a pinch. Unless somebody else falls in love with Dobbins, I'd keep him around for run support, depth and his special teams prowess. McNeill is kept because he's an adequate LT that has tremendous potential. It's really hard to find a good LT these days and even harder to try to play without one.

Merriman can go because his price tag is too high. The team cannot afford to be paying starter's money to 3 OLBs. Also, the Chargers could do worse than having Antwan Applewhite and Jyles Tucker as the backups. I'd like to keep Osgood, but don't see him staying. Somebody that likes tall receivers (Bengals?) will give him a chance to catch balls and he'll be gone. Chambers, Sproles and Whitehurst will all cost much more than they're worth on the free agent market.

It would probably cause too many issues to slap the franchise tag onto Merriman. He wouldn't want to play on the one-year deal, he'll feel he's getting underpaid, etc. etc. I'd personally go without a franchised player in 2010.

Roster Holes

The 2009 offseason was the first in a few years where there was legitimate holes on the roster. As of right now, I don't know that the team did a very good job of filling all of those holes. In 2010, those same weaknesses exist along with new ones.

Running Back - The bad news is that LT can't take the beating of a starting RB in the NFL anymore. The good news is that his restructured contract makes him cheap enough that he could be the second option in the ground game without killing the cap.

Trying to buy a running back as a free agent is absurd, unless you find a diamond in the rough (like Priest Holmes). It's even harder when there's only a couple of decent free agents RBs. After this season, the only RBs that might become free agents (they could still sign a contract with their current team) that have any starting experience are LenDale White, Pierre Thomas, Chester Taylor, Willie Parker and Le'Ron McClain. Jerious Norwood is an intriguing name, although he hasn't started much at all since being drafted. I don't think any of these guys are worth the money that they're going to get, so I point my eyes towards the draft.

I think it is absolutely, 100% necessary to use the Chargers 2010 first round draft pick on a running back that can start immediately. Unfortunately, this draft class currently looks thin at RB. Perhaps it's just too early. Even so, I have my eye on Clemson's C.J. Spiller and from the looks of it he might want the chance to apprentice under Tomlinson.

Strong Safety - From what I've seen, Kevin Ellison is not the answer at Strong Safety. He's the Brandon Siler of that position. He's a strong, big hitter than is good against the run but will get burned if he has to cover anybody downfield. I don't think Clinton Hart or Steve Gregory are good enough that I feel secure in having either of them as my starting SS in 2010.

I'm very intrigued with C.J. Spillman as an option here. He was very fast and hit really hard during the preseason. He reminded me of Melvin Bullitt, who I am a big fan of. I'm hopeful that the only reason he's listed as a FS and saw time their in the preseason is because the team liked what they saw from both him and Ellison and did not want them competing for the third SS job. If I was A.J. Smith, I have a meeting with Norv Turner and Ron Rivera and ask them point blank of Spillman is a viable option to start at SS before I make any other moves.

Let's assume they say no. "There's nobody on the roster we're excited about starting at SS." Well, let's see what else is out there. The aforementioned Melvin Bullitt (RFA) is part of a strong class of free agent Strong Safeties that also includes Atari Bigby, Abram Elam, Dawan Landry and Brodney Pool. These guys may cost more than trying to find a decent SS through the draft, but with more important needs to fill with rookies I think the Free Agent route would be the one to take. Any of those 5 guys mentioned, with the possible exception of Brodney Pool, would be a great improvement over Hart and Gregory.

Defensive Tackle - I originally thought this position was a HUGE need, but it may not be by the end of this season. If Ogemdi Nwagbuo and Vaughn Martin both show improvement during the season, to the point where they could both be competent starters on the defensive line, then the Chargers have incredible depth in 2010. That would leave them with 5 legitimate starters (Nwagbuo, Martin, Luis Castillo, Jamal Williams, Jacques Cesaire) and no need for anyone beyond that besides maybe Ryon Bingham.

If neither of them pan-out, the Chargers will continue to look for a young replacement for Jamal Williams. There are plenty of good DTs in the 2009 draft class, including 365 lb. Terrence Cody, so that would be the way to go there. As for right now, Shaun Rogers would be someone that I would inquire about but it would cause problems for the future of the defensive line. Rogers is signed for 5 seasons after 2009, and considering the Chargers would have to give up at least a first round draft pick to get him they would not be eager to dump him once Jamal Williams came back or one of the young kids started to show promise. That means they would have to give up on J-Will, OG and/or Martin and I don't think they're ready to do any of that. If I'm A.J. Smith, I'd like to stand pat and see how the young kids play for the rest of the season. However, the idea of Rogers pushing the line around with Nwagbuo subbing in and Martin playing backup DE seems like one I'd have to jump on if the price was right.

Center - This one kindof kills me. After talking with him at training camp, I can say that Nick Hardwick is one of the nicest people I've ever met. Not one of the nicest Chargers or nicest football players, nicest people. I also think he's a fantastic Center when he's able to stay healthy. I just think the Chargers need a better backup plan for when he gets injured.

Tyronne Green brought some hope. He was a very good OG at Auburn, and they hoped to turn him into the backup Center. Considering he's the 3rd Center and probably the 5th Guard, it's safe to say this pick has yet to pan out. If he shows something before next season, great. He can be a solid Center and nobody else is needed. If he shows nothing, he needs to be cut and a legitimate Center needs to be drafted. It's damn near impossible to find a decent Center as a free agent because of how valuable they are to each team's offensive line.

Summary

It's obviously not a full plan, but there's direction there. Sign Vincent Jackson to the contract he's worth. Scout every college RB in the country. Aggressively pursue the free agent Strong Safeties. Make a decision to trade for a NT or put your confidence in Nwagbuo and Martin for the future. Find a real Center to backup Hardwick. The rest will fall into place as the season goes along, and I hope some of these weaknesses turn into strengths. Right now, that's what I would focus on if I were the General Manager of the San Diego Chargers.

Game Preview: San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

John (obviousman) — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 23:00:25 -0000

Time for the weekly enlightenment breakdown. In reality, this is one of those games where San Diego Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers fans alike should throw the stats out the window. These teams played two evenly-matched games last year that Pittsburgh won because they had that extra oomph. Their offensive line and running game gave them the advantage, and Roethlisberger made enough of those "Nobody can sack this guy!" plays to kill any Chargers comebacks.

With that in mind.....I like stats. The most important one to start with is weather. Sunday night's forecast is looking like it'll be around 45-50 degrees with clear skies. Exactly what the Bolts and their fans were hoping for. Now, lets take a look at the teams and see who will have the advantages for this game.

When the Steelers Have the Ball

If you were to ask me to rate the Chargers' defense thus far on a scale from Poor to Great, I'd probably say it was average. I'd be right. Out of 32 NFL teams, the boys in blue rank 14th in yards allowed and 19th in points allowed per game. In a rare twist from years past, it's actually the pass defense (8th) and now the run defense (26th) that is keeping the team competitive without the football. While this seems to play right into the Steelers' philosophy, Willie Parker will be slowed by a turf toe injury that could certainly benefit the Bolts this week.

Last season, with a healthy Jamal Williams at DT, Willie Parker ran for 261 on 52 carries (5.0 YPC) in two games against the Chargers. This season, without JW in the center of the line it could've been worse. However, after watching LT in 2008 we're all very familiar with the effects of turf toe on a running back. I'm not saying it'll be a piece of cake, but the chances of the Chargers forcing Pittsburgh to throw the ball to win the game are greatly increased by that injured toe.

Through the first three weeks of the season, Pittsburgh has the league's 12th best offense. Their rushing game, with Willie Parker, ranks 27th (it was ranked 23rd in 2008) and their passing game has had to try to carry the load (8th). Although Ben Roethlisberger has two Super Bowl victories under his belt, this is not a team that wants to get into an shootout through the air with anybody. Especially not against the Chargers. However, with teams stopping the run and being able to score on their defense late, the Steelers have fallen to 1-2. Their only victory came against the 0-3 Tennessee Titans, who are so anemic offensively that they only scored 10 points even after Roethlisberger threw 2 interceptions.

The game plan is simple. Stop the run, force Ben to pass. Whether he's throwing into a zone or throwing against man-defense with a decent pass-rush doesn't matter at this point. What matters is step one. Start at step one: Stop the Run. With an rushing offense ranked 27th and missing their best RB, that should seem easy. However, Pittsburgh's running game wasn't much better last year when Willie Parker turned into Walter Payton against the Bolts. It's important that they keep their focus, and it's important for Ogemdi Nwagbuo to not get pushed backwards.

Advantage: Chargers. I came close to saying tie, but I just can't see Parker being effective on Sunday night. Although Pittsburgh ranks 8th in terms of offensive yardage, they rank 25th in terms of offensive points scored per game. Nobody on the team not named Ben Roethlisberger has a rushing TD yet. Santonio Holmes has disappeared since his big game against the Tennessee Titans on opening night. This is a sputtering offense that seems to be heading backwards while the Chargers defense looks to me to be improving. Most importantly, the Chargers' weakness (rush defense) is also the Steelers' weakness (they can't run). Roethlisberger will be forced to throw against Quentin Jammer, Antonio Cromartie, Antoine Cason and Eric Weddle, which presents lots of opportunities for turnovers and puts the Chargers biggest strength in charge of determining the game's outcome. I can live with that.

When the Chargers Have the Ball

Pittsburgh's 2009 team is not too different from their 2008 team. The roster and coaching staff is generally left in tact. The difference is that the defense, without Troy Polamalu or much of a pass rush (14th in sacks), has not been able to carry them to victory. Currently they rank 8th in total defensive yards given up (25th in points allowed per game), 15th against the pass and 6th at stopping the run. Weakness (inability to stop the pass), meet strength (Philip Rivers).

The Chargers' offense is ranked 8th overall after the first 3 weeks of the season, ranked 2nd in throwing the ball and 31st in running it. Yes, Bolts fans, the Chargers running game is only slightly better than the 32nd ranked Arizona Cardinals. However, those Cardinals are the NFC Champions and did come one amazing Santonio Holmes TD catch away from winning the Super Bowl in 2008. So that's promising I suppose.

Advantage: Chargers. First, the bad news. This is still drawing parallels to the 2008 Steelers team that went 2-0 against the Chargers in Pittsburgh. Those Steelers ranked 17th against the pass and 20th in points allowed per game. The good news is that they will be missing the big playmaker that always seemed to end the comeback drive (Polamalu). Since Troy has gone down, the Steelers have lost to Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer. You know Philip Rivers wants to be on that list of QBs to have recently knocked off the Super Bowl Champions.

I don't think William Gay and Deshea Townsend (both 5'10") are going to be able to cover Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee. I don't think the Steelers have one guy who can cover Antonio Gates and another guy to cover LaDainian Tomlinson and/or Darren Sproles. If the offensive line can keep the Pittsburgh pass-rush in check, this should be another great day for Rivers.

Final Analysis

Here's where things are going to get gloomy again. The Pittsburgh Steelers went 8-2 at home in 2008. Their stadium sells out years in advance and their fanbase is one of the most dedicated in football. They have a supreme home field advantage. Although their 2009 record is 1-2, they're still undefeated (1-0) at home. Even more shocking is that the Chargers have played against the Steelers in Pittsburgh 16 times in the last 40 years or so, and have never won a regular season game there. The Bolts are 0-13 when playing in the Steel City during the season, 2-14 all time (HT: Derwood13). Not only will the Chargers have to overcome the Steelers' team (which looks entirely possible), they have to overcome the crowd (not as easy).

For me, this game rests on the shoulders of Marcus McNeill. Although I criticized him last week, I was told his flu was quite severe and that he lost a lot of weight during the week leading up to the game. If he's healthy again, and can handle James Harrison, I feel like the Chargers cannot lose. If Harrison is causing all sorts of problems for Rivers, it's going to be hard to move the ball downfield and Norv will have to rely on the big passing plays again (always a risky gameplan).

Bolts & Dolts: Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers

John (obviousman) — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 13:38:22 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

2 months ago: San Diego Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson, front, hauls in a pass over Miami Dolphins safety Yeremiah Bell, right, and cornerback Will Allen, left, in the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

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So my father, who sounded as sick as I was last week, called me up towards the end of Miami Dolphins' first drive to let me know that the sky was falling. Again an opposing team was showing how easy it was to run on the San Diego Chargers' defense. Again it looked as though the Chargers were not getting much of a pass-rush.

I said the same thing to him that I roughly outlined in my game preview, that once the Chargers started to score the Dolphins would be forced to abandon the run and the game would be easily won. I didn't know that the Chargers wouldn't score a touchdown until late in the third quarter, but I believed that eventually Miami would not be able to keep up with the Bolts' offense.

The Chargers deserved to win yesterday's game. In making up my Bolts & Dolts list, I found plenty of Bolts and not a lot of Dolts. I think the team played about as well as it could have considering their current health situation. However, even if Pittsburgh is without Troy Polamalu next week, there are a few players and coaching strategies that need to be improved if the Chargers want to beat a stronger opponent.

More details on all of the above after the jump.

Bolts

Offense

Philip Rivers - 18/33, 303 passing yards, 5 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD. The rushing touchdown I saw live. Right before the play happened I said out loud "The defense is not respecting the run at all. Philip should just run it in." Next week, when the Chargers are inside the Steelers 10 yard line, the defense will at least have to keep somebody in the area to watch for a run by either a RB or Rivers. It will clear a little bit of space in the coverage. It will help things. That was not just a momentary success and six points, that was a big play that should help future red zone conversions.

By the way, does anybody throw a better deep ball than Philip? His passes to Malcom Floyd and Vincent Jackson were right on the money every time but one (he overthrew VJ because of pressure). What was once considered a weakness is now one of Rivers' greatest strengths. If the offensive line can keep him from getting killed the rest of the season, he'll be in the MVP running.

Vincent Jackson - 5 catches, 120 yards. This game made me flip-flop on VJ. Did I think he was great? Absolutely, but I thought of the potential 2010 free agents for the Chargers he was one of the expendable ones. No way. Not a chance. The entire offense, which used to revolve around Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson, now revolves around Vincent Jackson. Unless he's being double-covered and going up against at least one All-Pro Cornerback, you can pencil him in for a dominating game. The Dolphins shied away from putting the rookie Sean Smith on him, so instead he made Will Allen look foolish and slow all game. I think VJ has progressed to the point where he's every bit as good as Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings and other top WRs around the league. His football smarts have caught up with his freakish physical tools and he cannot be stopped.

Antonio Gates - 5 catches, 64 yards. Do those numbers blow me away? Not at all. Was it a dominating performance like VJ's was? Nope. However, the one thing that bothered me about Antonio's 2008 season was that Rivers lost his favorite third down target. Well, that has not been the case this season. Third and long, third and short, whatever the yardage is the ball is probably going to Gates and he's probably going to get the first down. Even when he caught the ball a yard and a half shy of the first down marker, he somehow knew where the first down was and dragged three Dolphins players the two yards to get it. That's what he's best at and that's what the Chargers need from him.

Malcom Floyd - 2 catches, 65 yards. After seeing both Floyd catches from last night, my wife turned to me and said "Why don't they throw to him more? He's great!" This will be a theme revisited later, by the way. My answer to her was that Malcom has a difficult time staying healthy. Just as I said that, the cameras show Floyd being checked on by the trainers on the sidelines. Oh boy. Malcom has the talent to be every bit as dangerous as Jackson, he just has to stay healthy. Although no injuries were reported after the game, I'll be keeping an eye on the practice participation reports this week for his name. I think he is somebody who was sorely missed in the playoff game last season and I would much rather go into Pittsburgh with lots of mismatches outside the numbers.

Legedu Naanee - 4 catches, 40 yards. He certainly learned from his mistake. Every time he got his sticky hands on the ball he would take off upfield. No more dancing around and possibly losing the game for him. I liked the screen passes to him too, as I think he may be the quickest receiver on the team and he has top-end speed if he finds some space as well. This was another one of those games that the coaches will look at and will say to themselves "Let's continue to get him the ball more often" because it's always a positive play.

Jeromey Clary - For all of the crap Clary took as the weak-link of the offensive line last season and into the offseason, the man deserves an apology. He has been the Chargers best offensive lineman so far this season and seems to win the battle against whatever pass-rusher he's facing about 90% of the time. His technique is vastly improved over 2008 (when I thought he was serviceable) and he holds his blocks longer than anyone else on the line. If you watch the pressure on Rivers these last few weeks, it almost always comes from up the middle or from whomever Marcus McNeill was trying to block. Outside of one missed assignment that turned into a sack on Rivers against the Raiders, I cannot remember Clary making a mistake or causing a sack.

Defense

Kevin Burnett - 13 tackles, 1 sack, 2 QB hits. Kevin returned to being the monster we all saw in the preseason. A theory I had, and had mentioned once or twice, was that once the season started the defensive playbook was vastly expanded and Burnett was forced to play catch-up again. His monster game against Miami, where he seemingly made every tackle, lends credence to that theory. According to the box score, Burnett was the only Chargers player to touch a Dolphins QB behind the line of scrimmage. He led the team with 13 tackles, and the next closest guy was Stephen Cooper with 8. He also played a fair amount of man coverage on Anthony Fasano, Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, as where as zone coverage where he was quick to make the tackle. Kevin Burnett could not have had a better game.

Larry English - 2 tackles, 1 pass defended. I have one gripe about Larry English and it's that he goes outside on his pass-rush too much. I guess it's fine, because he's usually fast enough to get around the blocker, but with no pressure from the defensive line the QB can get away from him by simply stepping up in the pocket. I know the kid is young and inexperienced, but by time the playoffs roll around I'd like to see him trying the occasional spin move, swim move or bull-rush so that the offensive tackle doesn't know what to expect every play.

As for this game, Larry made three big plays that stand out to me. One was the play in which Chad Pennington left the game with a shoulder injury. The announcers missed it, but it looked to me that Chad hurt his shoulder because English grabbed Chad's arm while he was throwing. Even if that didn't happen, Chad had to get rid of the ball quickly because Larry got there to force pressure very quickly. The second play was Larry's defended pass, which was brilliant (he saw the screen and stopped to swat it down instead of trying for the sack) and saved a huge play (the RB had blockers and nobody in front of him). The third play was a non-play. A dead ball that the referees didn't whistle dead until after Chad Henne started making his reads in the pocket. Larry got there, grabbed Henne and then stopped himself from completing the sack. If he made the rookie mistake of throwing Henne to the ground, it would've been a 15 yard penalty and an automatic first down for the Dolphins.

Luis Castillo - 4 tackles (2 tackles for loss). With Jamal Williams out of the lineup, Luis is seeing a lot more double-teams than he's used to. Still, he may be playing the best football of his life to start the 2009 season. He wins every one-on-one matchup, is playing the run like he's a Nose Tackle and is generally using his speed and agility to get where he wants to be and screw up the play for the opposition. During obvious passing downs (like 3rd & long), I would sometimes see the Dolphins block him with two guys and have a RB standing by watching him in case he got by the offensive linemen. They knew that if the Chargers were not coming with the blitz, Castillo was the main guy to worry about. It's great to have such a dynamic player on the line still, and things will get better for the defensive line as Ogemdi Nwagbuo continues to improve and Jacques Cesaire gets healthier and in game shape.

Defensive Secondary - 9 passes caught by WRs for 67 yards. The strength of the Chargers is in the passing game on both sides of the ball. The Bolts' WRs are fantastic and the CBs are just as good. Antonio Cromartie may not have an interception this season, but that's because defenses are starting to throw away from him the same way they did with Quentin Jammer. Analysis time! Let's look at how often opposing QBs have been avoiding throwing to their WRs and how successful they've been when they've tried to:

In 3 games, Chargers opponents have targeted.....

Wide Receivers 38 times. They have completed 21 of the passes to WRs (55%). 25 of the passes to wide receivers have been thrown at a player defended by Cromartie or Jammer. They have completed 10 of those passes (40%).
Running Backs 27 times. They have completed 21 of the passes to RBs (77%).
Tight Ends 12 times. They have completed 8 of the passes to RBs (66%).

Do you see now why opposing offenses might try throwing to the RBs, TEs or slot receivers more when they play against the Chargers? After 3 weeks of games, statistics say that you only have a 40% chance of completing a pass to one of your top 2 receivers against San Diego. If you don't count the Louis Murphy 4th quarter TD, where Cromartie and Clinton Hart were standing around pointing at each other, Antonio and Quentin have yet to give up a receiving touchdown this season.

Dolts

Offense

Darren Sproles - 18 carries, 41 rush yards, 2 catches, 14 rec yards, 6 kick/punt returns, 76 returns yards. I know some people won't be happy about this. "It's not his fault, it's the offensive line's fault." I get that, and I agree with you. However, I cannot go another week pretending that Darren Sproles is a suitable #1 running back. I gave him the benefit of the doubt going into Baltimore because his only other time starting was against Pittsburgh in the playoffs. Darren's abysmal 2.4 Yards Per Carry is starting to wear on me though. While I appreciate the weapon he is and wouldn't want to see anybody else returning kicks for the Chargers, I'm left wondering where the initial "Michael Bennett Plan" went. You remember it. It was when the coaching staff told us that if anything happened to LT, Bennett would take over as the starter and Sproles' role would remain unchanged. It hasn't exactly played out that way.

By comparison, and it's a legitimate one because they're running behind the same mangled offensive line, Michael Bennett is averaging 3.1 Yards Per Carry. Does that make him an All-Pro? Heck no, but it makes him an improvement over Sproles. I wouldn't want the offense calling run plays every time Bennett comes on the field, because then it becomes obvious, but I would like to see him used more when the offense is trying to run time off the clock or get short-yardage. There's really no downside to it. Bennett has proven to have soft hands, went nuts with screen passes in the preseason and is a bigger, stronger runner with great speed. Why not keep Sproles fresh and useful?

It'll never happen but if I was Norv....Darren would get taken off of punt returns. I'm sorry, but when the ball is bouncing 10 feet in the air and there are 5 defenders within a foot of it...LEAVE IT ALONE. Who care if it's going to bounce back to the 10 yard line. Don't jump on it at the 15 and risk fumbling it with no teammates in sight to bail you out. Also, has nobody ever explained the term "fair catch" to Darren? I think they may want to before he gets killed or loses and game by trying a field a punt on the 7 that he has no business fielding.

I didn't think I'd be saying this, because I love the philosophy of throwing all of the time, but I really cannot wait until LT comes back.

Chris Chambers - 0 catches, thrown to 3 times. I'm left unimpressed by Chris Chambers this season. I don't know if he's just so beaten up that he cannot be effective anymore, but for the amount of money he's getting paid he should be able to contribute something. He's so bad that while I was taking notes during the game I started writing down when he was not on the field, which thankfully was quite often. Just about every time the Chargers spread out with 3 or 4 WRs, and specifically on their drive at the end of the first half, Chambers was sitting on the bench. Even when he had the ball thrown to him, it was the same thing we've seen already against Baltimore and Oakland. Instead of making a play for the ball, Chambers seems to try to get a flag thrown for defensive pass interference. Right now, although he's paid like a top 10 WR in the league, Chambers is the 4th best WR on the Chargers.

Offensive Line - 2 sacks allowed (4 tackles for loss allowed), 2.5 team YPC. I was tempted to do an individual Dolt for everyone except Clary, but decided against it. They all deserve it though.

I can't hate on the -ski brothers too much because they're backups, and Brandyn Dombrowksi is playing backup on a completely different position. However, there are certain plays where they look lost. The Kendall Langford sack happened because he threw Dombrowski to the side like he was nothing. The hit on Rivers that looked like it might knock him out of the game happened because Dombrowski was beaten and Scott Mruczkowski lost his assignment and was left blocking air while a blitzer ran free. I was really hoping Vasquez would be back for this game because I think it'd be a big help, but no such luck. Hopefully he's back for Pittsburgh.

Marcus McNeill does not deserve the big contract he's probably going to get. His feet are slow and his balance isn't great. I'd love to say that Joey Porter bull-rushed past him to get to Rivers on his sack, but in reality he just hit McNeill in a way that made Marcus lose his balance and fall backwards. He is not looking like a Pro Bowl Left Tackle these days, and the fact that Norv Turner told the announcing crew that he's been disappointed in McNeill this season speaks volumes. To put it simply, there's constant pressure being put on Philip Rivers by whoever McNeill is trying to stop.

Kris Dielman......I feel like I should wait before I say anything. He's lost a lot of his consistency. He has a good play followed by a bad play, and visa versa, a lot. He also may have lost a step because his blocks to open holes for the RBs always seem late. I don't know what it is with him, but I don't see what I used to see from him. He's not holding blocks, he's not pushing people around. I'll wait until I really say whether or not he's having a bad season, because he's getting a lot of the brunt of Nick Hardwick not being there. The penalty to forearming the defender's helmet was a sign that Dielman is frustrated though, so at least he knows there's an issue.

Defense

There were no defensive Dolts this week. Everyone played at either a level expected of them or higher.