SB Nation - Derrick Johnson

The Linc - Cowboys fighting, Giants hurting, & what's up with the Chiefs?

JasonB — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 15:35:34 -0000

More photos » by Orlin Wagner - AP

3 months ago: Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Derrick Johnson (56) tackles Oakland Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell (2) during the first half of an NFL football game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Oakland Raiders Sunday, Sept. 20, 2009 in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)

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Trotter: Nervous as heck about workout | Philadelphia Inquirer | 09/24/2009
The Eagles confirmed that they worked out former linebacker Jeremiah Trotter today at the NovaCare Complex. Trotter last played two seasons ago for Tampa Bay. "I felt really good," Trotter said on 610-WIP. "I’ve been training and working out. The indication I got from everybody was that the workout went really well."

Chiefs' LB Derrick Johnson Out Against Eagles
Kansas City Chiefs Linebacker Derrick Johnson, who's made at least one big play in both games so far this year, says a pulled groin muscle will keep him out of Sunday's game at Philadelphia.

Scout.com: Haley Ends QB Controversy
"I want to be clear that there’s no doubt in my mind that Matt Cassel gives us the best chance to win," he said. "But also I will stay with what I say, that if that ever changes, I’ll stand by what I believe in - put the guys out there that have the best chance."

Giants S Kenny Phillips to miss rest of season - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
Safety Kenny Phillips’(notes) season with the New York Giants ended just days after the best game of his career.

Tony Dorsett rips into Tony Romo for some reason - Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
"I don't know why on God's earth Tony Romo has been anointed a superstar in the National Football League."

Chiefs Training Camp Update 8/7 AM

Joel Thorman — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 16:56:14 -0000

Kansas City Chiefs rookie linebacker Jovan Belcher sported vampire fangs on his mouthguard during Thursday's practice at the team's training camp on the campus of the University of Wisconsin-River Falls. DAVID EULITT/The Kansas City Star (via KansasCity.com

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Updated: 12:45 PM

Curiously, we don't have any updates from Bob Gretz at CBS Sports yet today. He's usually right on top of the updates, often doing it in real time. Is this part of the Chiefs' crackdown on Twitter-like real time updates? Not sure but it definitely could be. Gretz is on his way to Canton for DT!

This afternoon's practice is from 4:30 to 6:30 PM and we may end up seeing Tyson Jackson on the field for that. Cross your fingers!

We've got updates from this morning's practice, after the jump. As usual, we'll update this post with info as it comes in.

General stuff

No Tyson Jackson at the morning practice (Josh Looney at the Mothership)
ESPN's John Clayton is in attendance (Josh Looney at the Mothership)
It rained during practice which caused for slippery footing (Josh Looney at the Mothership)
The rain favored the defense (Josh Looney at the Mothership)
John Clayton says that the daily "situational talks" Haley has with team is straight from the Bill Parcells practice books (Josh Looney on Twitter)
Right before Head Coach Todd Haley gave his post-practice press conference, he was overheard telling ESPN Analyst John Clayton that his father would be at the afternoon practice today. (UW-RF)
You have to admire the officials standing in the pouring rain for all of practice. It was an hour before referee Mike Carey decided it was time for jacket. (UW-RF)

Offense

Thigpen with a nice scramble to dive over the left pylon on the final play of practice (Josh Looney on Twitter)

Defense

Glenn Dorsey made a nice play in the backfield during OL vs. DL drills (Josh Looney at the Mothership)
Derrick Johnson and Brandon Carr both made nice pass break ups
Maurice Leggett picked off a pass....defense possibly celebrated with a "rain dance" (Josh Looney at the Mothership)
Make no mistake: Whenever Tyson Jackson arrives at camp, he's VERY far behind. And so is the Chiefs' defense. (Kent Babb on Twitter)
During 7-on-7, the defensive first-string consisted of linebackers Mike Vrabel, Corey Mays, Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali and defensive ends Alex Magee and Alfonso Boone and defensive tackle Ron Edwards.(UW-RF)
During 11-on-11, the starters included safeties Bernard Pollard and Jarrad Page, linebackers Mike Vrabel, Corey Mays, Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson, cornerbacks Brandon Carr and Brandon Flowers, defensive ends Alex Magee and Alfonso Boone and defensive tackle Ron Edwards. (UW-RF)
Wide receiver Rodney Wright continues to impress in camp. During a 1-on-1 drill he put a sick move on the cornerback leaving him in the dust and getting himself wide open for the easy completion. (UW-RF)
Wide receiver Bobby Engram had the most problems catching the ball today. Engram dropped three balls during three different drills. He dropped one during 1-on-0, one during 6-on-0, and his final drop came during 7-on-7. (UW-RF)
Running back Jamaal Charles coughed up the ball - it was recovered by linebacker Corey Smith. (UW-RF)
Receiver Dwayne Bowe had the lone drop of the 11 on 11 session. (UW-RF)

Special Teams

Worked on kick return coverage (Josh Looney at the Mothership)

Injuries

Monty Beisel and Zach Thomas not practicing today. Both have missed practices the past couple days (Thomas made it to part of yesterday's) (Josh Looney at the Mothership)

Three Practices Down for the Chiefs in River Falls

Chris Thorman — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 11:48:59 -0000

More photos » by Orlin Wagner - AP

4 months ago: Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles (25) stiff arms safety Mike Brown (48) during NFL football training camp in River Falls, Wis., Saturday, Aug. 1, 2009. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)

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Three full practices and one conditioning test down for the Kansas City Chiefs this Monday morning. Practice continues with a two-a-day today. The team will take the practice field from 9-11 A.M. and from 4:30-6:30 P.M.

So how did the first couple of days of training camp go? As well as they could have if you ask me.

Injuries were minimal - Derrick Johnson tweaked his hamstring during Saturday's first practice. There were a few other guys that had to stop practicing to work with the trainer but nothing serious was reported.

As far as the amount of information we're going to be able to deliver to you about training camp, there is only one word to describe it - ridiculous.

Bob Gretz is sending out basically live reports from each practice at CBS Sports.
The UW-RF staff is doing their very detailed practice updates as well. These reports are coming out, so far, like an hour to two hours after practice is over. Not as quick as Gretz's reports but the UW-RF reports have a level of detail that isn't matched anywhere else.
The River Falls staff is also posting tons of photos from camp. They must be over fifteen hundred photos already this training camp.
Chiefs staff member Josh Looney is blogging at the mothership and it's good stuff that is basically live as well.

Looney and others are also on Twitter, which to me is maybe the most interesting place to check for Chiefs info. The more activer Twitterers at Chiefs camp are:

As far as Twitter info, we have all of the Chiefs players we can find on Twitter in a feed in the left sidebar. I've also got tweets from Looney, KCChiefs.com and I think Kent Babb in there too. It's a good place to check for quick, interesting information.

More on pictures...We're getting a half dozen or so Associated Press shots within hours of practice being over. We'll be posting those as well. Arrowhead Pride commenter CMatthews is at River Falls, snapping pictures. He's posted them in a couple different FanShots and they're absolutely awesome. I'm talking dozens of pictures right from the field. Check 'em out.

To help keep organized, you can always check out our 2009 training camp section for all of the posts tagged for training camp.

To help you get caught up to speed this morning, here are the big links to this past weekend's camp blogging coverage:

And here are our "official" camp practice updates. They have the most info in them about each individual practice. This is the format I think we're going to follow for each practice update. We talked about it and breaking it down like we did in the last couple of updates we think that's the easiest, most organized way to blog about camp without being there.

Let us know you thoughts on the weekend's training camp practices. Football is back. How awesome is this?

Chiefs' Thigpen: 'Some Players Took Advantage of the Freedom Herm Edwards Gave Us'

Joel Thorman — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 12:06:27 -0000

"And if you real look real close, you'll see it's a...dog? No no. It's a pony! You have to cross your eyes and then slowly pull the sheet of paper back. OK, we're done here today." (via Photo Source)

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For the past three years, Kansas City Chiefs fans have been subjected to Hermisms, press conferences where the coach talked a lot without saying anything and a general feeling that there was a lack of accountability around One Arrowhead Drive. Maybe that's because, you know, there wasn't any accountability.

In an appearance on Sirius Satellite Radio, Tyler Thigpen told Bryan McGovern and Ross Tucker that he felt some players took advantage of this. I was listening to the show but here's Tucker's latest Tweet:

Chiefs QB Tyler Thigpen just told us that he felt like some of the players took advantage of the freedom that Herm Edwards gave them.

We're only four and a half months into the Scott Pioli and Todd Haley era but we've quickly realized that there is assuredly a level of accountability with the "new" Chiefs.

David Macklin was arrested for DUI. Five days later he was released.
Michael Merritt was arrested (over just a little bit of weed?). 19 days later he was released.
Will Franklin reportedly showed up to mini-camp overweight. He was released.

I'm not trying to hold resentment against the previous regime because at this point it doesn't really matter. A cynic might say I posted this to take a shot at Herm Edwards (Hint: You may be partially right). But it's also interesting to note that for a player like Branden Albert, who was on the Red Zone Podcast today, have said that Herm was a coach who conducted toned down practices. At least comparative to the reports coming out of Haley's practices.

S Bernard Pollard:

"They hold everybody accountable. So if you mess up, they’re gonna call you out. That’s the thing with this coaching staff, they’re not going to hold anything back."

LB Derrick Johnson:

"I like the coaches. They are very passionate about what they do. There’s an energy around the Chiefs right now. There’s a lot of change going on. Everybody is adjusting and we are ready to go."

NT Tank Tyler:

"Well, I wouldn’t say that. I’ve had some conversations with Coach Haley and he’s a real cool dude but an intense coach. He’s strictly business and that’s a good thing."

DE/DT Glenn Dorsey:

"I won’t say he’s different. He’s really hands on. He doesn’t play any bull. He’s real straight forward. He tells you like it is. He don’t sugarcoat anything. If you ain’t doing good, he’s gonna tell you. He’s straightforward and I like him. He’s no nonsense, man. He’s ready to win."

LB Zach Thomas:

"I think he's doing great with the team. He’s tough and that’s what you need. He’s trying to get the mindset changed here and he does make you a little uncomfortable – which is good. You need that."

***

That's half the defense on record talking about the intensity of Todd Haley and his practices. That's gotta count for something come September.

Poll

Do you think that Herm Edwards' more laid back approach to practice and conditioning hurt the Chiefs?

Yes

797 votes

No

30 votes

Not sure

35 votes

862 votes | Poll has closed

The Chiefs Have a Plethora of Linebackers (Fourteen to be Exact)

Chris Thorman — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 12:53:22 -0000

Chiefs linebacker Derrick Johnson works the blocking sled during practice Monday at the team's workout facility. RICH SUGG/The Kansas City Star (via KansasCity.com)

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And before we start, the movie scene that I always think of when I hear the word "plethora":

Jefe: I have put many beautiful pinatas in the storeroom, each of them filled with little suprises.
El Guapo: Many pinatas?
Jefe: Oh yes, many!
El Guapo: Would you say I have a plethora of pinatas?
Jefe: A what?
El Guapo: A *plethora*.
Jefe: Oh yes, you have a plethora.
El Guapo: Jefe, what is a plethora?
Jefe: Why, El Guapo?
El Guapo: Well, you told me I have a plethora. And I just would like to know if you know what a plethora is. I would not like to think that a person would tell someone he has a plethora, and then find out that that person has *no idea* what it means to have a plethora.
Jefe: Forgive me, El Guapo. I know that I, Jefe, do not have your superior intellect and education. But could it be that once again, you are angry at something else, and are looking to take it out on me?

Carrying on....

On a simple level, a switch from the 4-3 defense to the 3-4 defense is going to require more linebackers on your team, if only because you now have four guys standing up behind the defensive line instead of three. Unfortunately, it's a little more complicated than that. The Chiefs are trying to figure exactly who fits where during these OTAs.

Let's review our linebacker situation this morning to see exactly what we've got going on.

Where Did They Come From?

The Kansas City Chiefs currently have fourteen linebackers on their active roster. Of those fourteen linebackers, three were listed as linebackers on the roster during the 2008 season:

The Chiefs added three more linebackers as college undrafted free agents in the weeks following the 2009 NFL draft:

Jovan Belcher
Corey Smith
Pierre Walters

And the team added five more linebackers this off season through free agency and one trade:

Where did the next three linebackers come from? Well, as Kent Babb noted today (Welcome back by the way Kent), former defensive linemen Turk McBride, Tamba Hali and Andy Studebaker are now listed as linebackers on the active roster. We've known about a possible (probable) switch by these guys to the linebacker position but recently it's become official.

Hali at least played linebacker in college. McBride said that, other than a handful of situations, he hasn’t played enough of the position at any level to claim any real experience. Regardless, that’s his position now, and he knows that coaches won’t wait while he adjusts to a learning curve.

So the Chiefs bring in eight guys this off season that are listed as linebackers (those UDFAs are almost assuredly not competing for a starting spot; just special teams) and then convert three more current d-linemen to the same position.

Think that linebacker is an important position in the 3-4? Important enough to switch three players' positions? Todd Haley does.

"Well, it’s such a big change for a couple of those guys. I don’t think you can judge them too quick on anything that they’re doing. But, there’s nobody that we look at and say, ‘no chance,’ so far to this point. The dropping and those guys that have been defensive ends that are now stand-up and dropping and doing those things, that’s a big change for them. But, again, I think we’re seeing progress every day and that’s good."

The conversion from defensive line to linebacker for these guys appears to be permanent, judging by Turk McBride's comments:

"Definitely right now," McBride said, "I can’t say I’m a good linebacker. But the more repetitions I take, I think I should do well at it. I tell myself: You have to start thinking like a linebacker. I can’t think like a defensive lineman anymore.

Derrick Johnson's Role

Where does 2005 first round pick Derrick Johnson fit in all of this? As DJ himself noted a couple of weeks ago on the Red Zone podcast, he's going to be playing inside linebacker in the Chiefs' new 3-4 defense. Zach Thomas says that is the best position for DJ:

"This is going to be his best scheme," Thomas said. "It’s definitely weakside linebacker-friendly. It can exploit the talent that he has. Everybody knows how talented and fast he is. If he gets this down where he’s not thinking, just rolling around and just having fun and he knows what to do, he’ll be a great player in this scheme."

Todd Haley chimed in on DJ yesterday:

"I’m not going to get in to where he was drafted because that doesn’t really matter to me now. What matters to me is that I’ve got guys that can help us win and I would say the position he’s playing gives him a chance to excel. Derrick’s been following Zach around and you can see that there’s some chemistry building between that group in general. I like the way that he’s worked this off-season. He’s been a consistent guy, always here, always working, up in the room studying and trying to get better. I think he has a chance to get better this year."

It's a do or die year for Derrick Johnson. Then again, I thought last year was too...

Who is Playing Where?

New faces. New positions. Where do they all fit in? In the 4-3 we called the linebackers nicknames, based on position, from weakside to strong side "WILL, MIKE, SAM" (for strong, middle, weak). But in the 3-4 they are named (in the same order weak to strong) WILL, MIKE, TED, and SAM. We haven't gotten much info on who's playing where

As Kent Babb noted, yesterday during OTAs, the first team linebackers lined up with Tamba Hali and Monty Beisel lined up on the outside and Zach Thomas and Derrick Johnson playing inside. Once Mike Vrabel comes to camp though, Beisel will likely be relegated to the second team and Vrabel will take his place on the outside.

That leaves Turk McBride, Corey Mays, Darrell Robertson and Demorrio Williams as the possible backups to the starting crew. Belcher, Walters, Smith and Dacus are likely the guys who are more concerned with standing out on special teams as their chance to make the Chiefs' roster.

More 3-4 Reading

One place I have to recommend for clear analysis on the 3-4 defensive is hoosierteacher's MHR University posts on the topic. I highly recommend you check some of those stories out. TheQ also had a FanPost last month that started a great conversation about the depth chart.

There's really a lot of info I left out here because this could be just a massive post. Chime in with your thoughts below.

Poll

Will Hali, McBride and Studebaker be successful in their transitions to linebacker?

Yes

199 votes

No

243 votes

Not sure

260 votes

702 votes | Poll has closed

The Art (and Science) of Drafting: IId. The McNolan Era (2005-2008)

Florida Danny — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 00:00:14 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: Sorry about the delay in getting this one posted. My computer crashed yesterday because a genius (aka me) let the battery run out, so I had to wait until it fully recharged (aka today) to continue writing up the piece.

Yesterday, in Part 2c of my review of 49er draft history, I broke down the Donahue regime's picks from 2002-2004 by round, position, and conference. Just to refresh everyone's memory, here was my description of Donahue's draft strategy:

Stockpile picks, especially when your team sucks.
Draft for need on Day 1, especially when your team sucks.
I <3 the Pac-10!
BCS or die!

In comparison with the Walsh II and Policy regimes, Donahue didn't make the Policy regime mistake of trading away picks when the team was good (2002), he used Walsh II's strategy of drafting for need on Day 1 when rebuilding, he brought back the Policy regime's affinity for Pac-10 players, and he surpassed both Walsh II and the Policy regime in percentage of picks that came from BCS conferences

In this article, I'll be ending the regime breakdowns with a look at the McNolan era (2005-2008).

After the jump, I'll put the McNolan drafts in context; break the results down by position, draft day, and conference; sum up the regimes; and provide the idiot's guide to McNolan draft strategy...

Here again is the link to my Excel spreadsheet of 49er draft picks in the Salary Cap Era. I realized that some of you probably don't have Excel 2007, so I converted it to be compatible with older versions (and fixed the link in previous posts as well):

49er Draft Picks 1994-2008

IN CONTEXT

In Part 2c, I told you how Donahue didn't hit the home run he needed to with his rebuilding project in the 2004 draft. One additional piece of evidence for this is the fact that, by the very next draft, Donahue's replacements had to rebuild the roster once more through the draft. Therefore, Donahue's 2004 fire sale and draft has to rank among the shortest rebuilding phases of a franchise in the history of sports (and not in a good way). Now, I'm sure you don't need some long-winded description of what the team has done record-wise since 2004, so I'll just get on with the specific needs in each of McNolan's drafts:

2005 Draft - Key Losses: WR Cedrick Wilson (free agency), OL Kyle Kosier (free agency), OL Jeremy Newberry (career-threatening injury), OL Scott Gragg (free agency), DL John Engelberger (trade), DB Ronnie Heard (free agency), K Todd Peterson (free agency). Weak 2004 Stats: 30^th in OFF DVOA; 31^st in DEF DVOA; 19^th in ST DVOA.¹ Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found worthy replacements for QB Jeff Garcia, RB Garrison Hearst, WR Terrell Owens, and DB Zack Bronson; major injuries to QB Tim Rattay, LB Andre Carter, DB Ahmed Plummer. Needs: QB, RB, WR, OL, DL, DB, K, LB depth.

2006 Draft - Key Losses: QB Tim Rattay (trade), RB Kevan Barlow (trade), FB Fred Beasley (free agency), WR Brandon Lloyd (trade), WR Johnnie Morton (released), LB Julian Peterson (free agency), LB Andre Carter (free agency), and DB Ahmed Plummer (career-threatening injury). Weak 2005 Stats: 32^nd in OFF DVOA; 31^st in DEF DVOA. Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found worthy replacements for Garcia, Hearst, Owens, and Bronson; major injury to TE Eric Johnson. Needs: FB, WR, LB, DB, QB depth, RB depth, TE depth.

2007 Draft - Key Losses: WR Antonio Bryant (released), TE Eric Johnson (free agency), OL Jeremy Newberry (free agency), and DB Tony Parrish (released). Weak 2006 Stats: 22^nd in OFF DVOA; 28^th in DEF DVOA; 18^th in ST DVOA. Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found worthy replacements for Owens and Bronson; OL Larry Allen and DL Bryant Young now in their mid-30s. Needs: WR, DB, ST, TE depth, OL depth, DL depth.

2008 Draft - Key Losses: WR Darrell Jackson (free agency), OL Larry Allen (retirement), OL Justin Smiley (free agency), DL Bryant Young (retirement), DL Marques Douglas (free agency), and LB Derek Smith (free agency). Weak 2007 Stats: 32^nd in OFF DVOA; 28^th in DEF DVOA. Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found worthy replacements for Owens and Bryant; major injuries to QB Alex Smith, OL Jonas Jennings, and LB Manny Lawson. Needs: WR, OL, DL, LB, QB depth.

In preparation for its drafts, McNolan has had to deal with about 7 key losses per offseason, which is fewer than Walsh II (8), but more than Donahue (4) and the Policy regime (4). Interestingly, the course of McNolan's tenure has seen a mixture of his 3 predecessors' draft contexts. The 2005 and 2006 offseasons were Walshian, with about 8 key self-induced, salary-cap-caused losses per season that generally involved kicking dead weight to the curb or trading it for draft picks. The 2007 offseason was Donahue-esque, with only 4 key losses and a team feeling good about itself after a promising season. Finally, 2008 was Policy-like in that there were two retirements to deal with. Overall, I'd say the most similar previous context to McNolan's was the Walsh II era.

I know this is totally off-topic, but, Cedrick Wilson may have made the greatest career decision in the history of the NFL by signing with PIT after the 2004 season. If he stays in SF, he's stuck on a 6-win team for the foreseeable future (at least until he roughed up his ex-girlfriend) catching passes from Rattay, Smith, Ken Dorsey, Cody Pickett, Trent Dilfer, Shaun Hill, and Chris Weinke. Instead, he goes to PIT and wins a ring his first season with the team catching passes from Ben Roethlisberger. Seriously, whatever it was that made him leave the Niners, he needs to bottle and sell it. Can you guys think of any other player in recent years who's lucked out like that?

Anyway, back to the regularly scheduled program. For the sake of comparison, here's how McNolan rebuilt the starting lineup in 2005 and 2006:

Morton (2005 McNolan free agent signing) for Wilson
Snyder (2005 McNolan draft pick) for Kosier
OL Eric Heitmann (2002 Donahue draft pick) for Newberry
OL Kwame Harris (2003 Donahue draft pick) for Gragg
Douglas (2005 McNolan free agent signing) for Engelberger (after moving Young to 3-4 DE)
DB Mike Adams (2003 Donahue undrafted free agent signing) for Heard
K Joe Nedney (2005 McNolan free agent signing) for Todd Peterson
Smith (2005 McNolan draft pick) for Rattay
RB Frank Gore (2005 McNolan draft pick) for Barlow
FB Moran Norris (2006 McNolan free agent signing) for Beasley
Bryant (2006 McNolan free agent signing) for Lloyd
WR Arnaz Battle (2003 Donahue draft pick) for Morton
Lawson (2006 McNolan draft pick) for Julian Peterson
LB Brandon Moore (2002 Donahue undrafted free agent signing) for Carter (after moving him to 4-3 ROLB)
DB Shawntae Spencer (2004 Donahue draft pick) for Plummer (after moving him to LCB)

Adding it all up, McNolan rebuilt the starting lineup with 5 traditional free agents, 4 draft picks, and 6 players originally acquired by Donahue. Comparing this to the previous regimes, McNolan used free agency more than Walsh II and Donahue, but less than Policy; and they had a "holdover rate" of 33.3%, which was smack dab in between Walsh II (16.7%) and Donahue (50.0%).

So there's the context. Hopefully you sense a pattern emerging here: the contexts of McNolan drafts have been a cocktail of issues and solutions having the ingredients of each predecessor; 2 ½ parts Walsh II, 1 part Donahue, and ½ part Policy.

PICKS, PICKS, AND MORE PICKS

From 2005-2008, the 49ers made 35 selections in the NFL draft, which nearly equalled the Walsh II and Donahue rate of 9 picks per season. In 2005 and 2006, the main rebuilding years, McNolan stockpiled picks via all those trades I mentioned earlier; just like Walsh II and Donahue. The past 2 drafts, however, McNolan has tended to trade away picks (you're welcome, NE) rather than stockpile them; just like the Policy regime. Once again, the trend here is for McNolan to be a mixture of all 3 predecessor's strengths and weaknesses.

In terms of McNolan's overall Pro Bowl rate, a Donahue-esque and Walshian 5.7% of its picks have become 49er Pro Bowlers (Gore and LB Patrick Willis). However, its starter rate of 34.3% - which includes OL Chilo Rachal's midseason and DB Dashon Goldson's offseason ascensions - is the worst of the 4 regimes (Policy regime = 41.4%; Walsh II = 48.1%; Donahue = 48.1%). When you remember the differences in context between regimes, you realize that McNolan has been way worse at picking starters than the context-similar Walsh II and Donahue regimes, and even worse than the context-different Policy regime, whose superior teams made it harder for draft picks to crack the starting lineup (i.e., the Policy regime's starter rate is artificially low due to context).

Bottom line - Here's what I think are the main things to take away from this section:

McNolan has continued the Walsh II and Donahue standard of 9 draft picks per season.
McNolan has stockpiled picks when the team sucked, and traded away picks when (they thought) the team was good.
McNolan has been as bad at picking Pro Bowlers as the "unlikely to have Pro Bowlers because the team sucked" Walsh II and Donahue regimes, and even worse at picking starters than the "unlikely to have draft selections start because the team was good" Policy regime.
Overall, McNolan seems to be channeling the good and bad of its 3 predecessors.

DAY ‘N' NIGHT

McNolan has taken exactly 40% of its picks on Day 1 of the draft, and 60% on Day 2. That's almost identical to Walsh II's 41/59 split, which, as I said in Part 2c, was smack dab between the Policy (52/48) and Donahue (33/67) regimes.

Looking at the relative success of its picks by draft day, we find that 64.3% of McNolan's Day 1 picks have become 49er starters, which is, again, right in the middle of the 4 regimes; not as good as Walsh II's (81.8%, which I incorrectly reported as 64.3% in Part 2b), but basically on par with the Policy regime's (60.0%) and Donahue's (55.6%). Remember, though that Walsh II and Donahue are the better comparisons in terms of team context. On Day 2, an abysmal 14.3% of McNolan picks have become 49er starters, easily the worst of the 4 regimes (again, even worse than the starter-unlikely Policy regime). So while McNolan has had pretty standard success on Day 1 in terms of starters, it's been horrible at picking Day 2 starters.

The best example of this dichotomy between Day 1 and Day 2 results is McNolan's initial rebuilding draft in 2005. Here it is:

Rd	Player	Pos	Starter?	Pro Bowl?
1	Alex Smith	QB	Yes	No
2	David Baas	OL	Yes	No
3	Frank Gore	RB	Yes	Yes
3	Adam Snyder	OL	Yes	No
5	Ronald Fields	DL	No	No
5	Rasheed Marshall	WR	No	No
6	Derrick Johnson	DB	No	No
7	Daven Holly	DB	No	No
7	Marcus Maxwell	WR	No	No
7	Patrick Estes	TE	No	No
7	Billy Bajema	TE	Yes	No

Day 1? 4 picks, 4 starters, 1 Pro Bowler. Day 2? 7 picks, 1 starter, 0 Pro Bowlers. Enough said.

With regard to Pro Bowlers, however, the preferred drink is once again "Regime Cocktail." On Day 1, 14.3% of McNolan's picks have become 49er Pro Bowlers, which is slightly worse than the Pro-Bowl-likely Policy regime (20.0%), considerably better than Donahue (0.0%), and slightly better than Walsh II (9.1%). OK, correction: McNolan drinks Regime Cocktail only on Day 1. That's because, it has yet to pick a Day 2 Pro Bowler. Of course, it's not like the other two Pro-Bowl-unlikely regimes (Walsh II = 6.3%; Donahue = 5.3%) were much better at it.

Bottom line - Here's what I think are the main things to take away from this section:

McNolan has had a Walshian 40/60 split of picks between Day 1 and Day 2.
McNolan has been worse than Walsh II, but better than Donahue, at picking Day 1 starters.
McNolan has been far less successful than the other 3 regimes at picking Day 2 starters.
McNolan has been more successful than Walsh II and Donahue at picking Day 1 Pro Bowlers, but slightly worse than these two regimes at picking Day 2 Pro Bowlers.

ASSUME THE POSITION

Here's how McNolan has used its 35 picks by position, unit, and draft day:

Pos	Day 1	Day 2	Total
QB	1	0	1
RB	1	1	2
FB	0	0	0
WR	2	5	7
TE	1	2	3
OL	4	1	5
DL	2	5	7
LB	2	1	3
DB	1	6	7
K	0	0	0
P	0	0	0
OFF Total	9	9	18
DEF Total	5	12	17
ST Total	0	0	0
Total	14	21	35

Overall, McNolan has basically split their picks up evenly between units, which is more similar to what the Policy regime and Donahue did than Walsh II's need-induced DEF preference. Also, like Walsh, McNolan hasn't taken any ST players in the draft. Of course, that may have something to do with having Nedney and ROBO-PUNTER on the roster. What's most interesting here, however, is that, although OFF has received equal attention on Days 1 and 2, 70.6% of McNolan's DEF picks have come on Day 2.

The even split of OFF picks between draft days is a little misleading because McNolan was actually Walshian in 2005 and 2006 when it had to replace most of the OFF. Going back to that 2005 draft that I showed earlier, you'll notice that all 4 Day 1 picks were on OFF. This continued in 2006 when they selected TE Vernon Davis in the 1^st round after Johnson suffered a major injury the previous season. Essentially, McNolan followed the Walsh II example of spending Day 1 of rebuilding drafts addressing the most glaring positional needs. This is really eye-opening when you consider that Scot McCloughan claims to be a devout believer in "best player available." Is he full of sh*t or is the focus on need in Day 1 of the 2005 and 2006 drafts just a coincidence? I'll leave you to decide.

DEF, however, is a different animal altogether. From the table, it's clear that the draft day disparity on DEF has been due to an inordinate amount of Day 2 picks being spent on DLs and DBs. The 5 Day 2 DLs were, in order of selection, Ronald Fields, Parys Haralson, Melvin Oliver, Jay Moore, and Joe Cohen; the 6 Day 2 DBs were Derrick Johnson, Daven Holly, Marcus Hudson, Vickiel Vaughn, Goldson, and Tarell Brown. Looking at these lists, you could say that McNolan has gotten worse over time picking Day 2 DLs, whereas it's gotten better over time picking Day 2 DBs. Either way, aside from Haralson and Goldson, that's a pretty mediocre-at-best bunch. So, if you want to know why the DEF has sucked for so long (before Singletary pulled their heads out of their asses), look no further than McNolan mostly waiting until Day 2 to pick DEF players. Couple this with McNolan's aforementioned horrible starter rate on Day 2, and you get one wet, stinking heap of also-ran-ity.

With 71.4% of picks taken on Day 2, WR is another position at which McNolan has focused little Day 1 attention. The two Day 1 WRs were Brandon Williams and Jason Hill, both 3^rd-rounders.

Hopefully, you're starting to see a trend here. McNolan gets credit for using Walsh II's "pick for need on Day 1" and "bites at the apple" strategies. However, it's made the mistake of waiting until Day 2 to take most of their bites at DL, DB, and WR. Perhaps, then, one reason why the Niners haven't been able to get over the mediocre 7-9 hump since 2005 is because their WR, DL, and DB corps are populated with Day 2 picks.

To drive it home, here's one last point about McNolan's (lack of) success wtith DEF picks. On OFF, McNolan's starter rate (44.4%) has been similar to that of the Policy regime (43.8%), Walsh II (50.0%), and Donahue (46.2%). However, the DEF starter rates for the previous 3 regimes were 47.1% for Walsh II, 41.7% for Donahue, and 33.3% for the Policy regime. McNolan's? 23.5%!

All is not lost, however. Unlike Donahue, McNolan seems to have actually learned something about positional picks as its tenure has progressed. Namely, 2 of their 3 picks in 2008 were DEF players. Whether or not DL Kentwan Balmer and DB Reggie Smith pan out in the long run, at least McNolan seems to have noticed that their previous Day 1 picks on DEF have become integral parts of the starting unit. Don't believe me? Here they are: Lawson, Willis, and DL Ray McDonald. So, their results - 2 starters, 1 Pro Bowler, and an emerging pass-rush specialist - were not shabby at all. This suggests that (a) when McNolan commits Day 1 resources to DEF, it's been pretty successful; and (b) the regime seems to have figured this out. So, at the very least, kudos to them for that.

Bottom line - Here's what I think are the main things to take away from this section:

Like Walsh II, McNolan has focused its Day 1 picks on the most glaring positional needs (when it had to).
McNolan has employed Walsh II's "bites at the apple" strategy at WR, DL, and DB. However, they've primarily waited until Day 2 to take their bites.
Given their propensity for waiting until Day 2 for DEF picks, it's not surprising that McNolan has been horrible at drafting DEF starters.
Based on 2008, McNolan seems to have learned from their "wait until Day 2 for DEF" mistake.

CONFERENCE ROOM

So far, I've basically told a story about how the McNolan regime's drafts have been a little bit Walsh II, a little bit Donahue, and a little bit Policy; how they've used the good strategies as well as the bad. Basically, not too hot, not too cold; I'll call it "Goldilocks" if you will. The conference breakdown is where that tale ends. There's one regime's lead in particular that McNolan has been happy to follow, and I'm sure you'll easily be able to figure it out. Here's how McNolan's 35 picks shake out by conference: 7 ACC picks, 7 SEC picks, 6 Big 12 picks, 6 Pac-10 picks, 4 Big 10 picks, 1 Big East pick, 1 Conference USA pick, 1 MAC pick, 1 MAII pick, and 1 MWC pick.

BCS anyone? McNolan has taken a Donahue-esque 88.6% of its picks from BCS conferences. I already detailed in Part 2c what I think of this strategy, so you know by now that I don't like it. Now, Scot McCloughan has argued that he takes BCS players because they're (a) less affected by big crowds, (b) more prepared for the NFL, and (c) better team leaders. While all of these may be true in a general sense, the draft isn't about generalities. It's about identifying and acquiring specific talented players. I'm sorry, but when you limit your available talent pool to 6 or 7 college football conferences, you're going to miss the "diamonds in the rough" that teams need to sustain success. Also, McCloughan has made it seem like picking players from BCS conferences is only a Day 1 strategy. The stats say the opposite though: A higher percentage of McNolan's Day 2 picks have come from BCS conferences (90.5%) than have its Day 2 picks (88.6%). Oh, and did I mention that McNolan's first pick ever was a QB from a non-BCS conference (Smith), and that they traded up in 2007 to take an OL from a non-BCS conference (Joe Staley)? That's 2 of McNolan's 4 non-BCS picks being taken with 1^st-round picks. Again, is he BSing us here or is this some kind of smokescreen? It's pretty interesting how a general BCS guy like McCloughan can fall in love so much with specific non-BCS players.

And now, I present a second way in which McNolan's conference preferences are similar to Donahue's: They suck just as bad at picking BCS players despite being so BCS-reliant. Wait, let me correct that. They suck even worse. Here's the evidence:

McNolan
Starter?	BCS	Non-BCS	Total
Yes	10	2	12
No	21	2	23
Total	31	4	35

Donahue
Starter?	BCS	Non-BCS	Total
Yes	12	1	13
No	13	1	14
Total	25	2	27

You'll recall from Part 2c that Donahue's BCS starter rate (48.0%) was worse than Walsh II's (62.5%) even though Donahue was much more BCS-heavy with his picks. Well, even Donahue's sorry BCS starter rate makes him look like a draft maven when compared to McNolan's. That's because, as the table shows, only 32.3% of McNolan's BCS picks have become regular 49er starters! As I said in Part 2c, if you're going to be limiting your talent pool so drastically, you better be good at evaluating the talent you don't ignore. Clearly, McNolan has not been good in this regard, and has been even worse than the guy for which I invented the argument.

Now, I argued in Part 2c that Donahue's preference for BCS players and lack of success in actually picking good ones was borne out of his dispositional laziness and inattention to draft detail. With respect to McNolan, however, I'm sure this hasn't been the case. To its credit, the McNolan regime has been almost pathologically engaged in draft preparation. After all, they coached the Senior Bowl 3 straight seasons, Scot McLoughan was Director of College Scouting for the Seahawks, and Scot's brother, David, now serves in the same capacity for the 49ers. So I'm kind of perplexed as to why, given their affinity for evaluating college talent, McNolan has shied away from non-BCS players. One might argue that it's because of the Alex Smith experience. However, as has been noted, McLoughan remains a big Smith supporter. So what gives here? Please help.

Bottom line - Here's what I think are the main things to take away from this section:

Like Donahue, almost every player McNolan has drafted has been from a BCS conference.
Despite its BCS-lust, the McNolan regime has had an even worse BCS starter rate than Donahue.

GENERAL ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION

As I've alluded to throughout this article, the McNolan drafts can be described by one word: Goldilocks. In other words, their porridge hasn't been too hot and it hasn't been too cold; just lukewarm. Here's the evidence:

McNolan's draft contexts have been a mixture of its 3 predecessors' contexts.
McNolan's been right in the middle in terms of a 49er regime's "draft vs. free agency" bias.
McNolan's stockpiled picks in rebuilding drafts ala Walsh II, but also traded away picks in "we feel good about ourselves right now" drafts ala the Policy regime.
McNolan's been right in the middle in terms of a 49er regime's Day1/Day 2 split.
McNolan's been right in the middle in terms of Day 1 starter and Pro Bowl rate.
McNolan has evenly split their picks between OFF and DEF overall.
McNolan's used Walsh's "bites at the apple" strategy, but only on Day 2.
McNolan's been on par with previous regimes in terms of picking OFF starters.
Though it's made Donahue-esque draft strategy errors, McNolan's either learned from those mistakes or has a more valid reason for why they've made them.

All in all, it sure seems like the McNolan regime has been a mixture of the good and bad of the 3 previous 49er regimes. They rebuilt like Walsh II in 2005 and 2006, but they sat on their laurels like Donahue and the Policy regime in 2007. They draft for need on Day 1 like Walsh II, but, like Donahue, only when they have to. They take a lot of bites at the apple like Walsh, but they wait until Day 2 to do it. You get the picture.

To me, understanding the Goldilocks nature of McNolan drafts helps explain why the 49ers have been stuck in "no better than 7-9" mode for the past 3 seasons. If you draft a propensity of mediocre players, or if you have a bunch of mediocre drafts, you're going to find yourself having a mediocre team. Here, another word comes to mind that has been used - with great comic effect - to describe McNolan: vanilla.

In evaluating the 4 Niner regimes since 1994, something has become very clear to me; something that I didn't fully realize until I got to McNolan. Bill Walsh was the only 49er GM in the past 15 years who went out and tried to be great in the draft. He's the only one who tried to bat 1.000 every time he stepped to the plate. The Policy regime was content to sustain success through free agency, Donahue was content to ride the coattails of Walsh II's drafts, and McNolan has been content to only be great on Day 1. Is it any wonder then that the Walsh II regime was the only one that had an upward win trajectory? Is it a coincidence that Walsh was the only GM to leave the 49ers better off than when he arrived? I mean, the 49ers regressed under the Policy regime and Donahue, and they've stagnated in 7-9 territory under McNolan. After reading my regime breakdowns, do you have any doubt that one important reason for this is because Walsh II's draft strategy differed so drastically from that of McNolan, Donahue, and the Policy regime? In re McNolan, do you think that the "hybrid" defense, not giving Hill the QB job outright, and not firing Nolan after 2007 can be described by any other word except "vanilla?"

Whether it's McSingle nee McNolan or someone else, until the person/people in charge of running the 49ers' drafts stop placing artificial constraints on themselves, and start trying to be great with every pick- by whatever means necessary - I fear the Niners are going to wallow in mediocrity.

Here's a perfect example of what I mean. The Niners need a pass rusher right now more than anything. Go out and draft the best damned pass rusher. If the consensus best pass rusher isn't the one you've identified as the best, then trade down for value and get the guy you want. If the pass rusher you think is going to be great played at (site decorum) Directional University in the Calfornia Penal League, take him anyway. Just don't sit back and wait to draft some OK pass rusher and hope he turns out to be good with a little coaching! Address the (site decorum) need already! In other words, try to be great!

Another example. Right now, you have an arguable draft bust, a good but ragged-armed journeyman, and a player KC didn't even want as your QBs. Go out and draft the best damned QB. Do whatever it takes. If the consensus best QB isn't the one you've identified as the best, then trade down for value and get the guy you want. If the QB you think is going to be great played at (site decorum) Directional University in the California Penal League, take him anyway. Just don't sit back and wait to draft some OK QB and hope he turns out to be good with a little coaching! Address the (site decorum) need already! In other words, try to be great!

You know what team drafts like this? The New England Patriots. But that's Part 3, so you'll have to wait until tomorrow to hear the details. For now, here's the idiot's guide to the McNolan regime's draft strategy:

Stockpile picks when your team sucks, but trade away picks when (you think) your team is good.
Draft for need on Day 1, especially when your team sucks.
Use Day 2 to take a lot of bites at the apple.
BCS or die!
We're Goldilocks (aka Vanilla McNolan).

So, based on this strategy, as well as some specific draft history trends that you can find in my Excel spreadsheet, here's what (and what not) to expect from the 49ers in the 2009 draft:

Don't expect them to take more than 1 player from a non-BCS conference.
Don't expect them to take a pass rusher, QB, or WR at #10.
Don't expect them to take a RB on Day 1.
Expect them to take a WR or two on Day 2.
Expect them to take an OL on Day 1.
Expect more DEF picks (esp. DLs and DBs) on Day 2 than Day 1.
Don't expect them to take a FB, K, or P.

Remember, this is what I expect them to do or not do based on their history. If they end up going against tendency, it's not because the tendencies were wrongly identified. It's because they did something that was unexpected given their history. And there's no harm in that. It's actually worked once or twice (See Willis, Patrick).

That's it for now. Tomorrow, I'll compare the overall 49er draft strategy since 1994, which I identified in Part 1, to that of the Patriots. TO BE CONTINUED...

¹ DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

How much blame would you assign McNolan's drafts for the 49ers continuously being unable to take that next step in recent seasons?

All of the blame

37 votes

Most of the blame

83 votes

Some of the blame

103 votes

None of the blame

9 votes

232 votes | Poll has closed

Morning Update (Quiet Arrowhead Edition)

Chris Thorman — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 14:04:28 -0000

Maybe it's just the video quality but Arrowhead sounds pathetic in this clip from last weekend.

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Buffalo Bills this week. Make sure you check out Buffalo Rumblings for more information. They have a very active community over there so our FanPost exchange should be great.

Bills lose to the Browns last night: "The Bills, once 5-1 on the season, now find themselves 5-5, losers of their last four games, and dead least in the AFC East - a division they led just a month ago."

Chiefs fans laugh at your measly ~~five~~ four game losing streak.

If I were Damon Huard and a reporter asked me about how much the Chiefs have been losing, I would point to my Super Bowl rings and walk off without saying anything.

Injury updates: Likely to play- Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Brandon Flowers and Pat Surtain. Not sure yet- Turk McBride, Donnie Edwards, Dustin Colquitt, Adrian Jones and Pat Thomas.

For some of you, this link will keep you sane at work for at least a few months. H/T Chiefs Planet .

8 minute clip on Christian Okoye's career. Obligatory Pirate Master mention.

Yes, that was a curious ending to the Steelers/Chargers game last weekend.

Say what you will about Brady Quinn's ability but he does have one more win than Brodie Croyle or Tyler Thigpen.

Excellent post from Upon Further Review about the Chiefs losing streak and it's place in history. Don't click the link if you want hope for the future of the franchise. It's there if you want to look for it.

In the midst of all of this losing, this statement is a ray of hope- "It would be safe to say that Thigpen is past being a spot start or matchup play in fantasy. With the weapons that Thigpen has in wide receivers Dwayne Bowe, the emergence of Mark Bradley, all-pro tight end Tony Gonzalez, and running back Larry Johnson, Thigpen is nearing must-start status."

I know it's fantasy football respect but we gotta take it where we can get it.

Morning Update (Election Day Edition)

Chris Thorman — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 13:38:12 -0000

via ESPN.com

I have a confession- I would rather watch election returns than the Super Bowl. Yeah, I said it. This presidential stuff only comes around every four years. All media coverage today will be election related so make sure you check out AP throughout the day to escape. More on the Chiefs offensive explosion in a bit...

Quick injury notes- The Chiefs might have CB Brandon Flowers (hamstring) and P Dustin Colquitt (groin) but LB Derrick Johnson (hamstring) and CB Pat Surtain (quad) are less likely to play.

Rick Dean of the Topeka-Capital Journal talks about Tyler Thigpen starting again for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2009.

The joys of rebuilding- Rookie CB Brandon Carr was the most experienced secondary player at one point last weekend.

For some reason, I like this mentality from WR Mark Bradley about his TD pass to Thigpen- "Actually, I didn’t think about nothing. I just went back and threw it. It just happened to drop in his arms."

Jon at MVN says don't blame Chan Gailey for Sunday's loss.

One more from MVN- Am I Talking Myself Into Tyler Thigpen?

A mock draft? Why not?

Cleveland Browns QB Brady Quinn will start this Thursday. Read more at Dawgs by Nature.

Geez...I know it's played out to criticize the traditional sports media but they can't see enough improvement in this team to write about it?

Rams WR Dante Hall will be put on injured reserve after suffering a high-ankle sprain.

It's election day! Check out RCS' 10 most un-athletic presidents.