SB Nation - Mark Bradley

GOT NUMBERS? Previewing the Browns vs. the Chiefs.

Ryan Kelsey — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 19:21:20 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

We must stop the Charles. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Since my computer blew up and the replacement has yet to come in, this article comes to you by way of a public library computer. That means slow connections and time limits. And a shorter version of my Got Numbers? weekly preview. It also means I won't be able to comment on this DBN until Monday and cannot edit this story, like I usually do. (I can read DBN from my phone, but I haven't successfully posted from it). So, sorry for any typos, spelling mistakes or blatant errors or omissions.

Not that anyone will mind. This week's game features two terrible teams with a combined record of 5-21 this season and 6-26 last year. And very, very few people will even know it is going on. It is blacked out in Kansas City. And it won't be shown in most of Ohio. These two proud franchises and fan bases now have little to cheer for and struggle to make their way to the games.

The Browns are coming off their second win of the season and have played, generally, better football since the bye week. But, let's see just how ugly we can expect this game to be.

As always, all DVOA, DYAR and sack rate numbers are thanks to Football Outsiders.

When the Chiefs have the ball:

Kansas City's offense is bad. They rank 32nd (yes, that's last) in the league in weighted DVOA for offensive efficiency (-28.4%). That means they don't pass well (28th, -23.5%), don't run well (32nd, -14.9%) and have been even worse lately because the weighted stats weight the most recent games more than earlier games in the year. The Browns defense has had borderline great games (Steelers II, Ravens II, Bengals I, Bengals II, Bills) and flat out disgustingly bad games (San Diego, Detroit, Chicago, Green Bay). Some of that is due to injuries, but some is just plain confusing. After dominating the Steelers in the wind and cold last week, the Browns rank 30th in weighted DVOA (up from 32nd). The Browns are 31st against the pass and 27th against the run in DVOA.

Kansas City's passing game is "lead" by Matt Cassel. Cassel has had an awful season. He has been less valuable overall this season than every quarterback with at least 100 passes, except Jamarcus Russel. That's right. Cassel has less total value than Derek Anderson in DYAR this season (-639 for Cassell, -406 for DA). On a per play basis, it is a little better, he is 39th of 44 qualifying QBs (-34.4% DVOA). Still, that's really, really, really bad. And while they haven't played the whole season (because they were midseason acquistions or injured) the Chiefs are not without decent receivers. Both Chris Chambers (-3.7%) and Dwayne Bowe(-3.0%) are right around league average on a per play basis. Though their "other" WRs kind of stink (Mark Bradley -38.8% DVOA and just a 40% catch rate; Bobby Wade, -26.8% DVOA). And they dearly miss Tony Gonzalez. Their best TEs, Leonard Pope and Sean Ryan have been non-factors. This is good news for the Browns because they remain the worst team in the league at defending passes to TEs. Part of the Chiefs problem is protecting the QB. They rank near the bottom of the league, allowing 40 sacks, about 9% of all their drop backs. And if the Browns can build on success in rushing the passer from last Thursday, this could be a big part of the game. The Browns ranked 17th in the league in getting to the quarterback on a per-dropback basis, but that has not been updated by Football Outsiders for last week's games. I'm sure the Browns are now near the top ten.

The Chiefs rushing game is an interesting story. While they rank last in the league in DVOA (mainly due to Larry Johnson's ineffectiveness- but he isn't on the team anymore), Jamaal Charles has broken out as a force on the ground. Despite not being a starting back until week 10, Charles has the 21st most value of all RBs and is 13th on a per play basis (7.7% DVOA). That's largely based on his really good 5.2 YPC. He is also coming off a career game against the Bills, where he rushed for 143 yards on 20 carries (7.2 YPC) and a TD. (Not to mention 7 catches for another 38 yards).

When the Browns have the Ball

The Chiefs are average against the pass, 17th in the league. Particularly, they are good against #1 WRs (8th in the league. As Brady Quinn plays more and more games, he is settling in around just below-league average. He is at -18% DVOA currently.

The Browns rushing game is also confusing to figure out. No current RB on the Browns qualifies for the league leaders on Football Outsiders. Jamal Lewis still leads the team in carries and he was horrible, dragging down the stats. Now that he is on IR, it is tough to gage how good or bad the run game really is. We just don't have much data on Chris Jennings (who has been pretty league average on a per play basis, -4% DVOA) or Jerome Harrison (who has been decidedly worse-20%DVOA). But the real X factor is Josh Cribbs. Football Outisiders classifies him as a QB. His runs come by the way of end-arounds, wild-cat formations, reverses. The creativity has lead to some good-to-great results. He has 305 yards on 42 carries, good for 7.3 YPC. The Browns ground game is key because KC is bad against the run. 29th in the league (8.0% DVOA).

Special teams

Josh Cribbs is awesome. KC has good coverage teams, so don't expect too much.

Conclusions and Questions

There are some rising starts and interesting things to watch, maybe not as ugly as I thought.

Three questions that will determine the outcome:

1.) Can the Browns get to Cassel like they got to Roethlisberger? And if so, will we take the next step and start forcing turnovers?

2.) Will the Browns play with a level of passion and intensity that is anywhere near the level they had for the Steelers at home at night?

3.) Will Jamaal Charles take another step to becomming the next NFL star runningback for the Chiefs?

For the first time since doing this column, I actually like the matchup. I think our strengths and their weaknesses are in the right areas (namely, our pass rush vs. their pass protection; their run game vs. our run defense).

Browns 28

Chiefs 20

Chiefs Trail Bills by Seven at the Half

Chris Thorman — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 19:26:28 -0000

More photos » by Orlin Wagner - AP

6 days ago: Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Ron Edwards (95) gets to a fumbled ball before Buffalo Bills offensive tackle Kirk Chambers (73) during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. Buffalo Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick fumbled the ball. Chiefs took over on the 26-yard line. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)

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Besides two turnovers, which the Chiefs did not turn into points, the first half of this game has been uneventful. It's 10 to 3 in favor of the Bills.

Here are some notes on the second quarter. My notes on the first quarter are here.

Positives

The direct snap to Jamaal Charles with the Cassel fake fumble was a good play call, if only because Matt Cassel fumbles so much.
Jamaal Charles is turning into a really solid red zone threat. The extra 2-3 yards he can get on a burst/dive at the end of a run are huge.
Brandon Carr's strip of Bills WR Nelson was awesome and the second turnover of the day for the Bills. It gave the Chiefs the ball at mid-field.
Leonard Pope getting some action - he's had a couple of catches this game already.
Two 4th and 1 conversions for the Chiefs. They faced 4th and 1 three times in the first half.
Matt Cassel, besides a few over thrown passes, is playing very well - 18/24 for 145 yards.

Negatives

Matt Cassel had Mark Bradley open on a deep pass but he overthrew it - twice.
Brandon Albert's false start penalty negated a big first down pass and catch from Cassel to Charles.
Chiefs gave up a sack on 3rd and 3 to force a punt.
Mike Vrabel dropped a sure interception with about four minutes to go in the half.
Glenn Dorsey left the game with two minutes left because of a knee injury. His return is questionable.

I think this is the game a lot of people expected - not too exciting and both teams playing a bit sloppy on both sides of the ball.

Who Should the Kansas City Chiefs Cut, Re-sign, and Keep for 2010?

Jon Yoon — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:00:17 -0000

by Charlie Riedel - AP

View full size photo »

It's hard not to let my frustrations get the best of me when writing about this year's lowly Chiefs. Rather than vent and curse and scream, I'm going to instead focus my frustrations on a few specific players who I believe are bringing the team down. Some have played their way off the roster and probably out of the NFL; others have played their way out of a starting job; still others have been monumental disappointments.

Let's look at this position by position, starting with the offense.

Quarterback: I've been very patient with Matt Cassel. I understand the situation he's in--his supporting cast isn't great, his receivers are dropping easy passes, and his offensive line has been shaky and inconsistent in pass protection. I get all those things.

That being said, there are a few things that scare me about Cassel. Despite improved protection over the past few games, he is still inconsistent with his downfield throws. In many cases, he's not hitting his receivers in stride and he's making far too many goofy mistakes for a player of his experience level. The excuses are over. His pass protection has gotten better and he is now surrounded by a decent running game. Yet, we're not seeing much improvement from him. All that Cassel has done this season is prove that he's a lousy quarterback for three quarters, but a pretty decent one in the fourth quarter (assuming the Chiefs are still in the game).

I'm not saying Cassel has played his way out of the job, but he certainly hasn't done anything to justify keeping it or securing his place as the QB of the Future. It would be reckless for the Chiefs to enter this offseason without bringing in another strong option at QB. Worst case, Cassel ends up playing really well and the Chiefs can trade their backup away. If the Chiefs don't bring in a strong young option now, it could set the franchise back two or more years.

Because if there is any QB who can push Cassel for a starting job, he's not currently on the roster--Brodie Croyle is too injury prone and Matt Gutierrez is as big of a longshot as you'll find in the NFL. Cassel's poor performance this season has led me to question whether Pioli's loyalties might be clouding his judgment. I like Cassel. I like his work ethic and I want him to succeed, but if he becomes the indisputable starter going into 2010 with no competition, it will really compromise Pioli's no-nonsense, high accountability environment he's building toward. If Pioli is gung-ho about sticking with Cassel next season without bringing in a competitive option, he better be right, or else it could be a decision that haunts him for the rest of his career.

Stays: Matt Cassel (#1 QB), Brodie Croyle (#3 QB)
Bring in: Strong competing #2 QB Option
Dump: Matt Gutierrez

Running back: The good news is that Jamaal Charles is a legit primary back. He's done an incredible job of doing a lot with very little help up front. The play that sticks out in my mind was the toss sweep against the Broncos where he almost made it out to the edge, but couldn't make it there. From what I recall, the guy that got in his way was weakly blocked by Mike Cox. I remember thinking to myself: "Man, if that was Tony Richardson a few years ago, that guy would have been leveled!"

With better blocking up front, Charles has the potential to be a very good "lightning back" who can take on about 15-20 carries a game. He needs to be more careful with the football, but hopefully he can do that with some better awareness and maybe a little bit of strength training. The problem is, Charles is not a primary back in the way LJ was. He shouldn't be a workhorse back nor should he be an all-purpose back. We saw that on Sunday. The Chiefs seemed scared to pound the rock on the goal line. It's because they don't have a "thunder" back to bulldoze forward on short yardage situations. The Chiefs need one of those backs--a big bowling ball that wears out defenses and can muscle a few tough yards on short yardage situations. It would provide more balance to their running game and create a great change of pace for Charles' shifty running style.

Kolby Smith has had a nice little career for the Chiefs, but I wonder if he'll ever play a full season ever again. Outside of Charles and Smith, the options at halfback are not good. Almost everyone in this spot is expendable. However, it's possible the Chiefs keep one of them on the roster, simply because they just have too many needs to fill. At fullback, Mike Cox has effectively played himself off the roster. He doesn't block well, he doesn't run well, and he's been invisible in the passing game. What is it you'd say... he does here? There isn't a shred of a doubt that he will be out of a job in 2010. The Chiefs must bring in a legit Fullback. Must, must, must. And it's not like it's that hard. You can get a top-notch Fullback in the late rounds of the draft.

Keep: Jamaal Charles (#1 HB)
Dump: Mike Cox, Kolby Smith, Tim Castille, Javarris Williams
Possibly retain: Dantrell Savage
Bring in: "Thunder" back. Fullback. Both can be found late in the draft. A "thunder" back might be found on another team's scrap pile

Wide Receiver:

Boy oh boy. You would think that a team coached by a Wide Receivers coach would have receivers that were better at catching the football. You would think that players like Mark Bradley and Bobby Wade, who are hanging on to their roster spot by a very thin thread, would be trying just a little bit harder to compete for their jobs.

Dwayne Bowe is a given, though based on the way he's played this season, I'm not convinced he's a legitimate #1 receiver. Chris Chambers has probably earned his spot on the 2010 roster, although we should prepare for a potential sophomore slump as he had in San Diego. If the Chiefs can find a younger receiver with #1 playmaking capability, they need to break the bank and bring him in (which might mean cutting ties with Chambers). I don't think that will happen, so for now, Chambers is a solid stopgap option. Apart from that, no receiver has played well enough to justify keeping their job.

Bobby Wade, on the whole, has not been terrible. He played like he didn't care to be there against the Broncos, but in most games, he's been a relatively solid slot option. I can't see a situation where Mark Bradley is on this team next season. He has dropped way too many passes in key situations. Lance Long, as it turns out, is not Wes Welker. He's not Ricky Proehl. He's just a guy---pretty good at getting open, but wildly inconsistent at making the catch.

Keep: Dwayne Bowe
Likely keep: Chris Chambers
Bring in: Either a #1 receiver to replace Chambers, or a strong rookie prospect to be groomed to replace Chambers
Very on the bubble: Bobby Wade, Lance Long
Dump: Mark Bradley

Tight End:

Based on the way Haley likes to use Tight Ends, I tend to think he wants a multi-dimensional tight end moreso than a one-dimensional one. He may not want a Tight End who is only stellar at receiving. I don't think he'd mind having a Tight End who was primarily a blocker. Ideally, though, I think he would like a Tight End who was equally good at both.

Leonard Pope has been the sole bright spot at the position and that's not even saying much. Pope's role should really be more situational--a great backup, but not someone I'd like to see as an every-down starter. Sean Ryan does not belong on this roster. I have no idea why he's been here this long in the first place. He can't catch. He's a horrendous blocker. What exactly is his value to the offense? Brad Cottam isn't much better. You can't tell me there aren't better options on the street than these guys.

Keep: Leonard Pope (#2 TE)
Dump: Sean Ryan and Brad Cottam
Bring in: Anyone who isn't named Sean Ryan or Brad Cottam.

Chiefs Inactives Include Savage, Alleman and Bradley

Joel Thorman — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 16:46:24 -0000

Chiefs WR Mark Bradley wasn't on the field for early warmups, causing me to speculate on Twitter that he wouldn't be active today.

I was right.

Other inactives for the Chiefs include:

CB Donald Washington
LB Justin Rogers
G Andy Alleman
LB Pierre Walters
TE Jake O'Connell
RB Dantrell Savage
QB Matt Gutierrez (3rd QB)

Alleman, Rogers and Savage are injury related. Savage was listed as doubtful on the injury report.

LB Mike Vrabel is active for the first time since Oakland. We'll see how much he plays.

Inactives for the Broncos include WR Kenny McKinley, RB LaMont Jordan, G Seth Olsen, DL Chris Baker, T Brandon Gorin, WR Brandon Lloyd, OLB/DE Jarvis Moss and the 3rd QB is Tom Brandstater.

Broncos Inactives for Today's Game

John Bena — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 16:43:06 -0000

Here are the Inactives for today's Broncos/Chiefs game. No surprises here - the Broncos are healthy and ready to go!

QB Tom Brandstater
NT Chris Baker
OL Brandon Gorin
OL Seth Olsen
WR Brandon Lloyd
OLB Jarvis Moss
WR Kenny McKinley
RB LaMont Jordan

Chiefs Inactives include -

WR Mark Bradley
CB Donald Washington
LB Justin Rogers
G Andy Alleman
LB Pierre Walters
TE Jake O'Connell
RB Dantrell Savage
QB Matt Gutierrez (3rd QB)

Bobby Wade Is Upgraded on Chiefs Depth Chart

Joel Thorman — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 01:02:28 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

19 days ago: Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Chris Chambers, left, reaches over the goal line with a seven-yard touchdown while being tackled by San Diego Chargers' Antonio Cromartie during the second quarter of an NFL football game on Sunday Nov. 29, 2009 in San Diego. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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Last week, Mark Bradley was listed as the receiver opposite Chris Chambers. This week, Bobby Wade slides on up to that spot.

Wade had two receptions for 20 yards yesterday. He was inactive for the first two games of the Chambers era but coach Todd Haley was quick to emphasize that it was just a numbers game at the time.

Bradley registered no catches in yesterday's game. He was remembered for a drop near the first down marker.

The other changes are minor.

Safety: DaJuan Morgan is the No. 2 FS and SS with Maurice Leggett to IR

Kick returner: Quinten Lawrence takes Dantrell Savage's No. 2 spot on kick returns.

Early in the season, the Chiefs depth chart had been talked about because there were so many changes week to week. But as the season progresses there are few (if any) changes.

This is the Song That Never Ends

Chris Thorman — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:45:09 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

about 1 month ago: Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe (82) reaches unsuccessfully for a pass as Oakland Raiders cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha (21) defends in the first quarter during an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Nov. 15, 2009. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

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Did you guys hear that the Kansas City Chiefs are terrible on third down this season?

Yeah, I'm sick of this too. It's like talking about the Chiefs' offensive line each week in '07. That was the big cause of our issues then and the repetition of that story got old fast.

Now we're on to third downs and why the Chiefs are so terrible at converting them, especially this past weekend when the Chiefs went 1/15 on third down. What happened on Sunday? Did the Raiders' defense shut us down? Eh, not exactly but you could make an argument for that.

I've gone through each of our third downs from the Raider game to figure out what the main cause of our third down failures were. The reasons I came up with are the general Didn't execute, Poor play calling, penalties and other. Feel free to disagree with those categorizations.

One point I want to make when I label a third down failure as Didn't execute is that that lack of execution could also have happened on first or second down, causing a long third down.

Here are the conclusions I arrived at after looking at each third down:

8 were because the team didn't execute properly, either on first, second or third down;
2 were near the end of the first half and were time-influenced;
2 were obviously doomed by penalties;
2 were poor play calls; and,
1 we actually converted!

It's all there, after the jump. Have at it.

#1 3rd and 12

Q1, 11:59, KC 13-yard line

Leonard Pope's false start and a two-yard loss by Kolby Smith put the Chiefs at 3rd and 17. Then a Tommy Kelly neutral zone infraction put the Chiefs at 3rd and 12. You know the next play - Cassel picked by Raiders CB Chris Johnson.

Cause: Penalty

#2 3rd and 9

Q1, 7:30, KC 10-yard line

An exchange of five-yard penalties by the Chiefs and Raiders put the Chiefs at 3rd and 9. A 1-yard run by Kolby Smith and an incomplete by Matt Cassel didn't help on first and second down. An incomplete pass closed out third down.

Cause: Didn't execute

#3 3rd and 4

Q1, 4:58, OAK 32-yard line

This is a play you remember - Matt Cassel's short pass to Dantrell Savage was blatantly dropped. Todd Haley said on the sideline to Savage, "You don't want to play today, do you?"

Cause: Didn't execute

#4 3rd and 23

Q1, 1:02, KC 12-yard line

The Raiders defense dominated the Chiefs on this drive. Matt Cassel was sacked for an 8-yard loss on first down and Jamaal Charles was tackled 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage on second down.

Cause: Didn't execute

#5 3rd and 6

Q2, 12:37, OAK 49-yard line

The Chiefs actually gained positive yardage on this drive before they got to third down. Lance Long caught a short Cassel pass to the right side and dove out of bounds, one yard short of the first down.

Jamaal Charles' 44-yard TD run on 4th and 1 made up for this though.

Cause: Didn't execute

#6 3rd and 7

Q1, 7:02, OAK 7-yard line

This drive started with a 41-yard pass to Dwayne Bowe and a 24-yard pass to Chris Chambers. This is the drive where Cassel and Charles fumbled the exchange and then had that weird bump into each other hand off that didn't gain anything.

Cassel's pass to Bowe on 3rd down was off the mark, high and out of the end zone.

Cause: Didn't execute

#7 3rd and 8

Q2, 4:44, KC 35-yard line

An incomplete pass to Mark Bradley and a short run by Jamaal Charles set the Chiefs up for third and long. Cassel passed short right to Chris Chambers and he powered his way to a six yard gain before being brought down near the sideline.

Cause: Didn't execute

#8 3rd and 8

Q2, 1:34, KC 21-yard line

The Chiefs had the ball with under two minutes to go and Kolby Smith's 7-yard run on third down was an attempt to force a Raider time out and waste some time.

Cause: Nearing end of half, deep in our own territory

#9 3rd and 5

Q2, :10, KC 29-yard line

This third down was at the end of the first half. Jamaal Charles' rush for no gain was to run out the clock at KC's 29-yard line.

Cause: End of half

#10 3rd and 10

Q3, 13:41, KC 38-yard line

And we have our lone converted third down of the game! Cassel hit Dwayne Bowe on the left side of the field for an awesome first down.

Cause: We got it!

#11 3rd and 7

Q3, 10:53, OAK 34-yard line

The Chiefs again lost yards on first down (-2 by Jamaal Charles) and Matt Cassel had an incomplete pass to Leonard Pope on second down. Cassel's pass to Bowe on third down fell incomplete, which led to a missed Ryan Succop field goal.

Cause: Didn't execute

#12 3rd and 9

Q3, 2:38, OAK 14-yard line

The Chiefs again failed on first and second down which led to a third and long. Kolby Smith's run up the middle only gained one yard on first down; Cassel's pass across the middle to Lance Long fell to the ground on second down; and Jamaal Charles caught a pass for 8-yards on third down, which left the Chiefs one yard short.

The Chiefs did go for it on 4th and 1 and did not get it.

Cause: Didn't execute

#13 3rd and 1

Q4, 15:00, KC 22-yard line

On third and short, the Chiefs went deep to Chris Chambers and did not convert. While I actually like this play call - plenty of time left in the game, going for the kill - the reason for not converting the first down is clearly a play call issue.

Cause: Poor play call

#14 3rd and 7

Q4, 6:54, OAK 11-yard line

I'm sure you remember this play - Matt Cassel's draw up the middle near the Oakland goal line. Most people flipped out at this call but the announcers said, "This was a Bill Parcells' move." What they meant was Haley called a play to ensure the Chiefs would be lined up properly for the field goal and not lose the ball. Personally, I'd like to see more aggression down on the goal line but I understand where Haley was coming from with that call.

Cause: Poor play call

#15 3rd and 17

Q4, 2:13, KC 37-yard line

The Chiefs were plugging along with the running game as time wound down but a Leonard Pope holding penalty screwed them on this drive. Jamaal Charles managed 9-yards on third down but the Chiefs were forced to punt it away.

Cause: Penalty

***

Okay Chiefs fans. Chime in with your thoughts and make sure you vote in our poll.

Poll

Against the Raiders, the Chiefs failed on third down because of:

Mainly play calling

41 votes

Mainly poor execution

275 votes

Both were equally reponsible

184 votes

500 votes | Poll has closed

Game Preview: San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

John (obviousman) — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:37:58 -0000

Another week, another preview. This one should be significantly more optimistic than the past few, though. It's no secret that I think these two Kansas City Chiefs games this season will be easy wins for the San Diego Chargers. I don't buy into the mystique and I don't buy into last year's close games determining how these games will go.

Last year's Chargers games were perfect mis-matches for the Chiefs. Clinton Hart couldn't come close to covering Tony Gonzalez (nobody on the Chargers' D could), when Mark Bradley was hot was when Antonio Cromartie was having trouble staying with fast receivers downfield and Dwayne Bowe took advantage of the Chargers' weaknesses at Safety. More than anything, though, Tyler Thigpen and that Pistol offense worked wonders against the Bolts' defense that, in all honesty, isn't very fast and didn't throw a lot of complicated pre-snap looks at the rookie QB.

This year I think things are different. The only real receiving threat on the team is Bowe. He'll probably get his numbers, but if you shut down the rest of their receivers the Chiefs will have a difficult time putting together long drives. And here's a big kicker.....with a QB that holds onto the ball too long and an offensive line that's struggling, the Chargers might actually get a pass rush.

A full breakdown of the game and stats is after the jump.

When the Chiefs have the ball

After bringing in Todd Haley to coach and Matt Cassel to lead the offense, the Chiefs were hoping to spread things out and create a pass-first attack similar to Arizona's. That hasn't worked out too well thusfar, mostly because the Chiefs don't have the weapons to "spread things out" and the running game has offered no help in bringing opposing Safeties up for help.

Kansas City's offense ranks 30th in the league in offensive yards per game and 25th in points per game. There are some bright spots, like the 9th ranked Time of Possession, but then there are some not-so-bright spots like having the 4th most fumbles in the league. The biggest problem with the Chiefs offense, because they only have one true offensive weapon, is third downs. Their 21% conversion rate on third downs is not only dead last in the league, it is significantly lower than the third down conversion rate of the 31st ranked team (OAK - 26%). This is great news for the Chargers, who have struggled to get off the field because of poor play on third down.

KC's running game ranks 25th in the league in yards per game and 26th in the league in yards per carry. The Matt Cassel-led passing offense ranks 27th in the league in yards per game, but they have more passing TDs than the Chargers do (7). As was illustrated in the Arrowhead Pride post I linked to earlier this week, Cassel's weakness remains his inability (or unwillingness) to throw the ball downfield. The Chief's passing game ranks 25th in plays of 20+ yards and 16th in plays of 40+ yards.

In the preseason I pointed to the extraordinary number of times Cassel was sacked as the Patriots QB as evidence that he held onto the ball too long. This season that same issue has been paired with a bad offensive line, leading to 22 sacks on the Chief's signal-caller. That ties for second in the league with the Lions and behind only the Packers. Considering the Chargers face neither of those teams this year, this is going to be the best opportunity for players like Larry English, Shaun Phillips and Shawne Merriman to get to the QB and pad their stats.

On the season, the Bolts rank 23rd in yards allowed per game and 28th in points allowed per game. They're allowing 141 rushing yards per game, good for 27th in the league. The passing defense has been solid though, ranking 13th in the league in yards allowed. Although the team's 7 sacks makes them the 29th best team (or 3rd worst) in the league on the pass-rush, the secondary's strong play has put them among the top 10 teams in 40+ yard passing plays allowed and 20+ yard passing plays allowed.

Advantage: Chargers. This will not be the game where Matt Cassel finds his down-field touch. Quentin Jammer and Kevin Ellison should spend a lot of time double-teaming Dwayne Bowe to keep him in check. I'm hopeful that the Bolts get Cassel to the ground at least a couple of times, which should hopefully turn into a turnover or two. If the Chiefs find a way to consistently grind out long-drives and score TDs against the Chargers, I will be very surprised.

When the Chargers have the ball

After their best game of the season against the Broncos, the Chargers' offensive ranks remain relatively the same. They're still in the middle of the pack in terms of offensive yards (14th), towards the top in terms of points per game (9th), struggling with the running game (32nd in rushing yards per game and yards per carry) and awesome with the passing game (5th in passing yards per game). The pass protection hasn't been great, especially at Center and RB, but Philip Rivers has done enough to make that group only 10th worst in terms of sacks allowed.

The Chargers are in trouble if the Chiefs are having success rushing the passer, and have tall cornerbacks to cover the Chargers' tall receivers. The 29th ranked defense for yards allowed per game isn't promising, and neither is being 24th in point allowed per game. KC is ranked 25th in passing yards allowed, but they have faced some pretty tough passing offenses already this season. What really gets me excited for this matchup is that Rivers may actually get the chance to throw the ball consistently without having to run for his life. KC's pass rush has yielded only 9 sacks, putting them one ranking spot better than the Bolts.

Also, and this may sound foolish, I'm expecting a big game from LaDainian Tomlinson. Essentially, LT has been healthy and used in only two games this season. I know we're 2-3, but everyone here knows how much I worry about LT's mileage. I think the rest has been good for him and I do think he looked like an effective RB against the Broncos (4th best run defense in the league). The Chiefs' are ranked 25th in terms of rushing yards allowed per game, and RBs are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against them this season. They have allowed four rushes for over 20 yards this season, which is nearly one per game and makes them 10th worst in the league for that statistic (for the record, the Charger have allowed only two 20+ yard rushes, tying them for 19th worst). I think LT is out to prove to himself, the league, the fans and especially the coaching staff that he's healthy and should be the main RB in this offense at all times. I'm not saying I'm expecting 200 yards and 3 TDs, but 100+ and a score would go a long way towards a victory.

Advantage: Chargers. This is a no-brainer. One of the better offenses in the league against one of the worst defenses in the league. Even if the Chargers' D isn't up to the task of shutting down the Chiefs' offense, the Bolts should be able to easily out-pace KC in a shootout.

With four WRs that are over 6'2", one thing that I've been looking at every week is the height of opposing CBs. The defenses that the Chargers have struggled against (Raiders, Broncos-2nd half, etc.) have been ones with at least 2 CBs of 6' or taller. If all of your CBs are 5'10" or shorter, there will be some 7" mismatches that can't be overlooked. Let's look at the Chiefs' secondary:

Not bad height on their secondary. I'm sure Rivers will attack Flowers whenever he's up against Vincent Jackson or Malcom Floyd, but that probably won't be often. Still, I think the Chargers' gameplan going into this game should be able ball control and instilling confidence back to the running game. If it's not working, Rivers can win the game by himself like he always does against the Chiefs.

Are the Bears getting out-coached?

SackMan — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 21:00:27 -0000

More photos » by John Froschauer - AP

Chances are... Lovie Smith is probably dialing up a blitz in this picture from the sidelines in Seattle on Sept. 27, 2009. The Bears had blitzed on 45% of their opponent's drop-backs prior to that game. (AP Photo/John Froschauer)

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After Sunday night's painful loss in Atlanta, I found myself questioning the abilities of the Bears coaching staff once again. The Bears had two weeks to prepare for that game, yet they littered the field with penalties and blunders which ultimately cost them a chance at victory. Three of the biggest coaching mistakes in that game are flat out inexcusable.

1. The Roddy White TD - The Bears were caught out of position when 3 receivers were covered by only 2 defenders. The Falcons had two wideouts and TE Tony Gonzalez lined up in trips right at the LOS, and Gonzalez was MLB Nick Roach's responsibility. The Bears were running a safety blitz, and outnumbered in coverage. No timeout was called on the field by Roach... and, no timeout was called from the sidelines either. The result: Matt Ryan threw an quick screen to Roddy White, who was uncovered with two blockers, and ran for one of the easiest TDs you'll ever see in the NFL.

2. The no-huddle - The Bears defense was caught off guard by a no-huddle attack, and the Falcons finished a 12-play drive in the first half that ended with a Tony Gonzalez TD. Gonzalez was wide open in the back of the endzone, where MLB Nick Roach once again failed to cover him. When asked by reporters after the game about the Falcons no-huddle offense, Love Smith said they were unprepared for it, even though Matt Ryan said they've used the no-huddle a lot this season when he was asked a similar question. It was later discussed the the Falcons used the no-huddle very often vs New England earlier in the season. So, the Bears had two weeks to prepare for it, and were unprepared? Hmmmm... go figure.

3. Twelve men on the field - For the second time this year on Sunday Night Football, the Bears found themselves in a numbers crunch. The first time this happened, in Green Bay, the Bears were punting in the 4th quarter from their own 26 yard line with a 12-10 lead. When they thought the Packers had too many men on the field, they ran a fake to try an take advantage of a "free play." But, they were wrong, lost a challenge and a timeout, and turned it over on downs at their own 30 yard line. The Packers kicked a field goal to take a 13-12 lead.

This time, in the 4th quarter once again, the Bears had just forced the Falcons to punt on a 4th and 4 from the Bears 36 yard line. But, 12 men on the field gave the Falcons a 1st down at the Bears 31 in the 4th quarter with a 14-7 lead. Thankfully, Matt Ryan was intercepted by Nathan Vasher at the Bears 7 yard line on the very next play.

When I reflect on those 3 things... I sit here and scratch my head.

Then, I start to think of some other concerns that raise my eyebrow.

The Bears blitz
Over the past two seasons, the Bears have blitzed more than almost every team in the NFL.

Per Dan Pompei, on Sep 27th:

Last year, they blitzed on 34 percent of their opponents' drop-backs. This year, with coach Lovie Smith handling the defensive play-calling for the first time, they have blitzed on 45 percent of their opponents' drop-backs.

Only six teams -- the Jets, Bills, Steelers, Browns, Cowboys and Cardinals -- have run more blitzes than the Bears this season. And of those, only the Bills and Cardinals operate out of a four-man front as the Bears do.

I also remember it being documented that the Bears led the NFL in blitz % last season... although I can't find a source.

Sunday night vs the Falcons was no exception. The Bears blitzed Matt Ryan repeatedly in that game, however they failed to register a single sack or QB hit. Ryan's jersey never even touched the ground. When a team blitzes that many times, you'd figure they would eventually get to the QB... right? But, the Bears blitzes over the past several years have been practically useless... which raises another coaching question: Why?

Leading the league in blitz % in 2008, the Bears ranked 22nd in the league with 28 sacks. So far this season, the Bears have vastly improved their pass rush with 14 sacks... however, 10 of them are from defensive lineman. Why aren't the blitzers actually getting to the QB?

Talent has underachieved on the Bears, and excelled on other teams

Players come and go... and sometimes perform better on other teams. I get it... it's just the way it is. However, in the Bears case, there's a long list piling up. These players have had limited success as a Bear, and have left Chicago and prospered in other places. And, when you break it down... you wonder why they aren't achieving this success in Chicago?

It's not like the Bears have lacked talent... this list is proof.

QB Kyle Orton (traded) - Has led the Broncos to a 6-0 start and has a QB rating of 100.1

RB Thomas Jones (traded) - Led the AFC in rushing in 2008 with the Jets, and is currently #5 in the NFL in rushing yards

RB Cedric Benson (released) - The former #1 pick is experiencing a revival as a Bengal, and is currently #3 in the NFL in rushing yards

WR Justin Gage (released) - Led the Titans in receiving in 2007 & 2008, and is starting for them again in '09

WR Bobby Wade (released) - Led the Vikings in receiving in 2007, and is still in the league as the #3 WR for the Chiefs

WR Mark Bradley (released) - Is the 2nd leading WR for the Chiefs, and in 16 total games for Kansas City, has 45 catches for 557 yards & 4 TDs... nearly equaling his total output with the Bears in a span of 34 games over 4 seasons.

S Chris Harris (traded) - Has been the starting SS for the Panthers for 3 seasons, and led the league with 8 forced fumbles in 2007.

T Mark Colombo (released) - The former #1 pick, who battled knee injuries with the Bears, has started 53 consecutive games for the Cowboys at RT

FB Lousaka Polite (released) - He joined the Bears after 3 years in Dallas, and has been the starting FB for the Miami Dolphins for the past 2 seasons

It pains me to say it, but the evidence is stacking up here against Lovie Smith and his staff. Maybe it's a narrow-minded view, since my eyes are focused so much more on the Bears, than the rest of the NFL as a comparison. But, the overall picture sure doesn't look too good.

Poll

How would you grade the Bears coaching staff?

A: Great: They give the team a very strong competitive advantage

14 votes

B: Good: They are sometimes a step ahead, but usually pretty even with the opposition

149 votes

C: Average: They don't make or break the team

266 votes

D: Below average: They get out-coached way too often

498 votes

F: Bad: They are always unprepared

82 votes

1009 votes | Poll has closed

Chiefs Third Down Woes: Play Calling, Penalties or Poor Play?

Chris Thorman — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:55:15 -0000

More photos » by Ed Zurga - AP

2 months ago: Kansas City Chiefs coach Todd Haley talks to an official during the second quarter of an NFL football game against the Dallas Cowboys Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009 in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

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So we all know the Kansas City Chiefs have major troubles on third down. After Sunday's game, the Chiefs are now 14/68 on third down for a nice conversion rate of 20.6%. Sunday, the Chiefs were 5/17 on third downs for a conversation rate of 29%.

But, it's not like the Chiefs get to third down and inexplicably can't convert them just because it's the third play in a series. Logically speaking, it's first and second down that's hurting us the most. Especially when 8 of those 15 third downs had the Chiefs needing 10 or more yards to go for the first. And six of those actually required 15 or more yards for the first.

After the jump, I've gone over all of the Chiefs third downs they didn't convert (12 of them) to see if we can find a pattern of poor play, bad play calling, penalties or a combo of them all.

There's lots of room for debate on this one so I'm excited to see what you all have to say.

First Quarter

3rd and 11

How we got there: Mark Bradley lost two yards on a reverse and Larry Johnson only gained one yard on second down.

Verdict: Poor play calling

3rd and 3

How we got there: Jamaal Charles had a nice run for 7 yards on first down but Matt Cassel was sacked on second down. An incomplete pass to Bradley sealed the deal and the Chiefs punted.

Verdict: Poor play

Second Quarter

3rd and 15

How we got there: Larry Johnson lost six yards on first down and then only gained one yard on second down. Cassel's incomplete short pass to Sean Ryan virtually ended the series and Ryan Succop kicked his first field goal of the game.

Verdict: Poor play calling

3rd and 17

How we got there: This drive started out great with passes of 13 and 20 yards by Cassel to Sean Ryan and Dwayne Bowe respectively. A 7-yard loss on a Cassel sack and incomplete pass to Dwayne Bowe on second down put the Chiefs in a terrible third down position again.

Verdict: Poor play

3rd and 6

How we got there: What started as a solid drive at the end of the first half wound up stalling. After starting out at their own 12-yard line, the Chiefs faced 1st and 10 on their own 44-yard line. First down was an incomplete pass. Then a 15-yard pass to Sean Ryan was negated by a Brian Waters holding penalty. On 2nd and 20, Cassel hit Bradley for 14 yards. Third and six saw Cassel throw incomplete to Mark Bradley.

Verdict: Penalty

Third Quarter

3rd and 20

How we got there: The Chiefs got the ball back to start the half and only lasted five plays. After a nice first down 14-yard gain by Sean Ryan, Cassel's short pass to LJ fell incomplete on first down. Then, Cassel was sacked for a ten yard loss and yet again, the Chiefs faced third and long.

Verdict: Poor play

3rd and 3

How we got there: The final series of one of the Chiefs longest drives ended up well - with Ryan Succop putting three points on the board. On that final series, LJ rushed for two yards before two Cassel incompletions forced a punt. You can debate the merits of a pass on 3rd and short but let's face it - Larry wasn't getting that one.

Verdict: Poor play

3rd and 5

How we got there: With the ball on their own 33-yard line, LJ rushed for five yards; Cassel threw an incomplete pass to Sean Ryan on the play Branden Albert was injured on; and Cassel threw an incomplete pass to Bowe on 3rd and five.

Verdict: Poor play

Fourth Quarter

3rd and 22

How we got there: A long, long drive by the Chiefs starting with 11 minutes left in the game ended with Ryan Succop's 53-yard field goal being blocked. The final series went down like this: poor deep pass by Cassel in the direction of Bobby Wade; a Brian Waters false start; a 3-yard Jamaal Charles run; offensive pass interference on Dwayne Bowe made 3rd and 12 3rd and 22. Cassel hit Wade for a 9-yard gain but alas, it was way too short.

Verdict: Penalties

3rd and 7

How we got there: The Chiefs final drive of regulation ended with me jumping up and down yelling "Boooooooooooooowe!!!!!!" The final series of the ten play drive was uneventful aside from the TD. An incomplete pass to Bradley and a short gain by Charles gave the Chiefs 3rd and 7.

Verdict: Wash

Overtime

3rd and 15

How we got there: Cassel's 14-yard pass to Bradley on the first play of overtime got me so jacked up but I was completely deflated when Wade Smith was called for holding on the next play. A five yard run by Cassel made it 3rd and 15 which was not converted when D. Bowe caught a 10-yard pass to make it fourth down.

Verdict: Penalties

3rd and 9

How we got there: The Chiefs got that rare second chance in overtime to score but of course, they didn't. An incomplete pass and an LJ one yard run gave the Chiefs another third and long. Sorry Todd Haley. But at this point in the game, after seeing what we saw from the running game all day long, an LJ draw on second and 10 killed us.

Verdict: Poor play calling

So out of 12 third downs the Chiefs didn't convert, here's how I have the problems breaking down:

Penalties: 3
Poor play calling: 3
Poor play: 5

Thoughts on the why the Chiefs have issues with third downs? Do you feel that it's mainly one of these factors over the others? Or a combination?