SB Nation - Roberto Garza

about 1 month ago: Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, left, tries to elude the rush of Denver Broncos' Darrell Reid (95) and a second defender during the first quarter of an NFL football game Monday, Nov. 9, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

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Happy Tuesday, friends. After being up late, and watching a hard-fought game go awry, I bet you're pretty bleary-eyed, and grumpy, but let's try to make this a good day. I don't want to think that the Broncos have fallen into losing habits here, and I really don't think that's the case.

Of course, those who speak, but don't know what they're talking about, will start screaming about how the Broncos have been exposed, and they're a fraud, and every other damn thing. A few persistent issues have emerged, but they can be corrected. If anything, losing back-to-back games against good teams can teach you a great deal about your own team.

Let's reflect on this, as I know the coaching staff is, and the players are. Next week, the Broncos face the Redskins, which presents a great opportunity to get back on the winning track. After that, San Diego comes to town. The Broncos still control the AFC West, make no mistake about that.

On the other side of the jump, we'll break it all down. Ready..... BEGIN!!!!

1. It's now midseason, and the Broncos are 6-2, and in first place by a game, and having beaten San Diego on the road. Think back to August, and if I told you that's where the Broncos would be, you'd be happy to take that deal, right? It's a little less great to win the first 6 and lose the last 2, but whatever.

I mentioned some issues, and I want to talk about them briefly. I think all are fixable in the second half of the season.

a. Ben Hamilton is getting to be pretty useless, and I think it's time to see what Seth Olsen has. Hamilton has gone from being above-average before his concussion-driven missed season, to average last season, to decidedly below-average this season. Every time the Ravens and Steelers needed to get pressure on Kyle Orton, they did it over Hamilton. Every other team in the NFL has seen that, and will try to replicate that strategy.

From former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah, during the game:

I don't know what Olsen can do yet, but he's definitely bigger and stouter than Hamilton. I have to think he can anchor better than what we've seen from #50. I am pretty sure Russ Hochstein isn't the answer, but I'd like to see what Olsen looks like.

b. The Broncos need better execution overall on offense. The scheme is fine, and the players are fine, they just need to make the plays that they have a chance to make. They have had some bad penalties, some poorly-timed drops, some slip-and-falls in the running game putting them off schedule, and lately, some bad throws. Plays like Brandon Stokley coming just short of a first down, and Hamilton getting called for a (really questionable) holding penalty on a converted 4th-and-5 are what has been hurting the Broncos offense. The coaches need to send the message that if the players who are playing don't execute, they'll find somebody who will.

c. Signing Mitch Berger was a big mistake. I think it's worth working out some other punters, but really, I liked Brett Kern. If somebody better than Berger is available, I think he should be brought in. Getting a good punter needs to be a high priority in the offseason, too.

d. Interestingly, short-yardage offense has improved during the two losses, as the Broncos have shown a willingness to throw some in those situations. It is still a concern going forward, though. Olsen may help here, if he is given a shot.

e. No-huddle offenses have been problematic for the Broncos the last two weeks. They limit their ability to disguise coverages and rush packages, and they also make it hard to substitute as much as the Broncos want to. Not every team is effective in the no-huddle, but just about every team the Broncos might see in the playoffs is. They need to figure out who their best base defensive group is against the no-huddle.

I think my underlying thought right now is that the Broncos probably aren't quite ready for the Super Bowl, but they hung with a team tonight who is a real championship contender. They beat New England a couple weeks ago, who is a real championship contender. They beat Dallas and Cincinnati, who at the least are good teams. The Broncos have a ways to go, but as first halves of the season go, you have to feel pretty good about theirs. It's not time to start anything over, or blow anything up. It's time to make a few adjustments, execute better, and keep working toward winning games.

2. Information from My Eyes, Steelers at Broncos.

a. Did I mention that I think Mitch Berger sucks? Nothing has particularly changed for me on that score. John Bena coined a new term last night, Brett Kern-backers. I liked Kern, but I don't think I am a Brett Kern-backer. I am a guy who wants a consistent good performance from the Broncos punter, whoever it is.

Philosophically, not a single player or coach on this team means more to me than the team itself. I don't care who is doing it, I just want it done. As much as I love John Elway, the team always came before him to me, too. Part of his greatness, though, was that he'd never make you separate him from the team.

b. It didn't get mentioned a lot, but Tyler Polumbus struggled at RT, especially in the second half of the game. LaMarr Woodley got a lot of pressure and forced a few key throwaways. He'll be okay against most teams, but this was a tough situation for him. Ryan Harris's absence was most definitely felt.

c. I liked the work of both Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal in this game. They consistently did a good job getting open and catching the ball. Marshall had the one drop, but it was a good effort for him overall.

d. I thought D.J. Williams had his worst game of the year, by far. He was taking bad angles all night, and didn't look like he had a prayer of getting off a lot of blocks. I'm admittedly not generally his biggest fan, but he's had the best year of his career in 2009. Monday night, not so much.

e. Wesley Woodyard played a lot more snaps than he's used to, and I thought he wore down in the second half of the game. The Steelers played a tremendous amount of 3 WR sets, which kept Andra Davis on the sideline, and Woodyard in the game.

f. Kyle Orton was actually not too bad for most of the game. He had 2 bad throws, and about 3 bad decisions (one of them was picked off). He was pretty sharp the rest of the night. He needs to cut out the bad decisions, but I was generally a lot happier with his performance tonight than I was against the Ravens. (I don't care about statistics, of course.) Nobody is saying they're thrilled with his ultimate performance, of course, but there's more nuance to the situation, than just looking at the stat sheet.

g. Rashard Mendenhall was the primary reason the Steelers won the game. He got going in the second half, and it forced the Broncos to be more aggressive in the box. I used to think very little of Mendenhall, but he has improved a lot. He runs with vastly better patience and body lean than he did even just a month ago.

h. The Steelers also have themselves a find with Mike Wallace. He's very dangerous for a 3rd WR. They don't do a lot of traditional slot-type stuff, and in nickel offense, if anything, Hines Ward is their slot guy. (I think making definitive distinctions between #1, #2, and #3 WRs is silly.) Wallace has great speed, and he showed good route-running skills Monday night.

i. I liked what I saw of Ty Law in his limited action. Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins both mostly struggled in the game, neither making a great impact. Champ ought to be embarassed by letting Ward jump over him in garbage time. He knows better than that. He also got beat in man-to-man coverage several times by Santonio Holmes. Andre' Goodman was good in this game, though, even beyond his interception.

j. The Broncos use of the "mush rush" was very good in the first half, and very bad for most of the second. Robert Ayers played a key role in containing Ben Roethlisberger when he as assigned that duty, and that's what he was doing when Kenny Peterson knocked the ball free.

k. The Broncos got hosed on the Gaffney challenge, and also on the Haggan fumble recovery. Don Carey has joined my list of bad referees. I like how a return team becomes an intercepting team. I can't believe that he's related to Mike Carey, who is excellent. And he's the older brother? Wow.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games:

a. I watched a lot of the Green Bay-Tampa Bay game Sunday, for a few reasons. I haven't seen much of the Bucs this year, and I wanted to look at Josh Freeman, who I liked a lot coming out of college. He looked like a rookie at times, but he showed a lot of positives too. I thought he looked poised and confident, and I am not that surprised. I remember when he beat Texas as a freshman, and commanded the game. (My buddy lost a grand on the game, and he called me frantically looking for NFL advice for the next day, to "get back even." It was a debacle. I don't give gambling advice anymore, because of that weekend.)

Anyway, Freeman looked like a star that day in 2006, and he looked like he may be one someday in the NFL on Sunday. I think Tampa did the right thing, giving him some time to learn from the sideline, but it has to be Freeman Time the rest of the season.

b. I loved Raheem Morris's line after getting his first victory as a head coach.

Statistics are for losers, and today, we're winners.

And then, there's Chicago Bears lover/reporter/enabler/apologist Brad Biggs of National Football Post, after his beloveds got blown out again.

That's positive news? The Bears got smoked, again, Brad. Their best player, who is supposed to always play well, performed close to expectations. It's only positive news if he is on your fantasy team, which is why I don't really like fantasy football. (Well, that and the dorktastic "experts' you have to tolerate on TV.)

Cutler played alright, but he didn't do anything to elevate the play of anybody else, as usual, and the interception he threw in the 4th quarter did kill the Bears' chances of coming back.

It's amazing how the Bears team has assumed the personality of the 2008 Broncos. There's a good chance they'll get blown away on defense, and Cutler is almost definitely going to need to carry the offense. In my business, we contract with companies to take over non-core operations. We call it a lift-and-shift. You terminate your employees who work in a call center, and we'll instantly hire them. They'll work for us, and you'll pay us a fee that is less than what you pay for this operation. Meanwhile, we'll optimize, and reduce the headcount, and correspondingly, the costs.

Everybody considered Cutler's acqusition to be a lift-and-shift. The Bears got a franchise QB. Imagine what he'll do on a team that plays good defense and runs the ball. Football is such a multi-variate system, it's really amazing.

c. I would really hate to be a Bears fan. They have no high draft picks this year, and suddenly a lot of roster holes to fill. They need 3 or 4 new starters on their offensive line, to begin with. Orlando Pace is done, Josh Beekman and Roberto Garza were never starting-caliber players in the NFL, and Olin Kreutz is getting close to done. I don't care for Chris Williams, either. He's looked passable at RT, but if he was worthy of his draft slot, he would have bumped Pace, because it's clear as day that he isn't good enough. You wouldn't use a #1 on an RTO (Right Tackle Only), unless it was Jeff Otah.

They could also use some WRs, some secondary players, and a pass rusher. We're not asking for much, right?

Chicago has a cash-poor ownership group, and the cold weather and their ugly uniforms don't tend to help draw free agents. (Yes, both things matter. It's part of the problem in Cleveland too.) I just don't know how you can bring in enough players there to improve for next season.

d. On Monday I read a lot of epitaphs about the Chicago defense, which didn't get into a lot of the "why" they're so bad. As I was explaining to a friend a few days ago, a defense has to have all 11 players working well together, in order for it to be sound and effective. Because defense is fundamentally a reactive mission, there are many inter-dependencies among the three levels, and communication, like-mindedness through practice, and discipline make all the difference. That sounds simple, and it really is.

First of all, you'd better either be good against the run with 7 in the box, or have a big-time safety who can move 12 yards from a cover-2 shell to the line of scrimmage really quickly. The Bears can't stop the run with 7, so you know they'll have 8 in the box. Then, there's the passing game. When a team can't rush the passer with 4 players, they need to blitz with numbers. When they blitz with numbers, it makes it hard to play soundly in zone coverage, so you mostly have to start playing man coverage. When you play a lot of man coverage, you'd better hope you have the athletes to cover the other team's athletes - and chances are, their #3 and #4 options are better than yours. That's a simple fact of it being harder to find players with coverage skills than it is to find guys who can run a route and catch a ball, when he knows where he is supposed to go.

So you can't stop the run, you can't get pressure with 4, you can't play zone, and you can't play man. All that's left is to guess at what the offense is going to do, and play for that. The obvious problem there is what happens when you guess wrong. You get exposed, and give up huge plays. That sounds a lot like the 2008 Broncos' defense, right?

To apply this to the Bears, they used to get pressure with their front 4, but Tommie Harris is having a bad season. He was a healthy scratch for the Cincinnati game, reportedly because of some attitude issues, and they got lambasted. Then, he got ejected over some extreme foolishness 1 minute into Sunday's game. The Bears again got crushed. Harris is among the best 3-technique DTs in the NFL, when his body and attitude are right.

With no Harris, Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye have struggled to get any pressure, so the Bears have blitzed, ineffectively. They have all these tall, slow CBs who can't do anything except play zone coverage, and they got shredded in man-to-man on Sunday, as they did against Cincinnati. If you decide to be a cover-2 team, you'd better play a lot of cover-2, because your personnel can't hold up playing man.

If Harris can manage to get his body and mind right, and have a dominant second half, he could personally bring a soundness back to the Bears that could send them on a 6-2ish run in the second half to finish 10-6. The more likely outcome is that he continues to sulk, the Bears continue to get gashed, and they finish 7-9 at best. And the Broncos have a nice draft pick. Thanks, guys :)

e. Funny story. My brother Chris (who did join MHR as Chris911, incidentally) and I were talking on the phone the other night, like we do sometimes.

Chris: You know, Jay Cutler has a losing record in games where he throws for over 300 yards.

Ted: You know, Jay Cutler has a losing record as a starting QB in the NFL.

Yessir. I love that draft pick more and more every day.

f. Remember the spring of 2008 when many wanted Denver to become Vanderbilt West? It hasn't worked out so well for Chicago. Earl Bennett's ceiling is to be an average starter, if he puts it all together. He can't get off bump coverage right now, whatsoever. He also runs bad routes and drops the ball a lot. In other words, everything he was supposed to do well, he doesn't. Yes, I know he had 7 catches for 93 yards Sunday, but the vast majority of it was in garbage time, against soft zone coverage. (And, yes, wise guys, I know, most of the game was garbage time.)

Chris Williams, I already discussed. He has definitely been a disappointment. This year, the Bears took D.J. Moore, a CB, who is somehow not good enough to beat out any of the pu pu platter of guys who take turns opposite Charles Tillman. He has been a gameday inactive all season, and is not even a special teams contributor.

I watched the Florida-Vanderbilt game Saturday night, and was reflecting on this. Vanderbilt has no hope in the SEC. They can't recruit talent that is nearly good enough to compete, and most of their guys have tended to underachieve in the NFL. They are on my list with Texas and Ohio State of schools whose players I am naturally suspicious of, although it's all for different reasons.

I wonder if Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Stanford, Duke, Rice,and Baylor ever thought about forming a football-only, high-SATs conference. Actually, this year, Vandy would be in the bottom half of that league, too.

g. Staying with the college theme for a minute, the best all-around QB I have seen this season at any school is Cincinnati's sophomore backup, Zach Collaros. He has completed 76% of his passes for 1,229 yards, with 10 TDs and 1 interception in the 3+ games he has appeared in. He has also rushed 43 times for 281 yards, and 4 TDs, while only being sacked 10 times.

Cincinnati's original starter, senior Tony Pike, is expected to start this week, although head coach Brian Kelly did cop to it being a tough decision. Pike is likely to be drafted on Day 1 next spring. Collaros is going to contend for the Heisman Trophy next season, and he'll be a high pick too, when he decides to leave school. He's the total package, with an above-average arm, very good poise, and outstanding accuracy and athleticism. The only knock on him is that he's 6 feet tall, but he has some definite Drew Brees-like qualities as a thrower. This is a 75-yard TD run against a South Florida team with lots of athletes. The guy is real.

h. A guy I really like on an otherwise not-great unit is Atlanta Guard Harvey Dahl. He has been getting very good pad level, and driving guys, in helping Michael Turner have his best two games of the season. I beat up Sam Baker for his pass protection last week, but he did well in the running game Sunday, too. The Redskins are normally solid against the run, but Atlanta gashed them repeatedly.

i. Michael Lombardi stole my thunder, which is an occasional hazard of writing for Tuesday mornings. (The) Other smart analysts see(s) the same things and beat(s) you to talking about them sometimes. Ray Lewis definitely looks like he's doing it more on guile and want-to than skill anymore. I respect his effort greatly, and sometimes he makes a huge play, like against the Chargers, but he's clearly hit his downside. Big up Lombardi, for consistently seeing what the reporters don't see. (By the way, it's weird and unnatural to see Lombardi stand with a mic and interview players and coaches for NFL Network. Stop the madness, and be an analyst, Mike. You're better than some locker jockey.)

j. I was pretty critical of Dallas' Mike Jenkins earlier in the season, and he deserved it. Lately, though, he's been playing fantastic football. He did a great job Sunday night, and was the largest part of the Dallas secondary's outstanding effort not to give up the big plays that Philly wins with every week.

k. The Eagles are reputed to be a West Coast team, but they are not that, and never have been since Mr. Game Management, Andy Reid, came to town. Donovan McNabb isn't a West Coast QB, who does really well with timing throws. The Eagles are a vertical, downfield team, and they finally have guys in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek, who can get down the field and make the plays they want to make.

l. By the way, everybody knows I like Tim Tebow, but McNabb is the guy who Tebow most reminds me of. They played in similar-ish option-heavy offenses in college, and they have very similar profiles as throwers coming into the NFL. Tebow's stats are down this year, mostly due to bad pass protection, but he's throwing the ball better than ever when he gets some time.

m. The Chargers might be back. I haven't seen their LBs look as good as they did on Sunday in two years. Some of that may be due to the Giants offensive line, though, which is good in the running game, and below-average in the passing game. All this stuff about them having the best line is hogwash. (I've actually seen Michael Lombardi say that this season.) They have a natural LG, David Diehl, playing LT, and he gets owned by good pass rushers.

n. Brandon Jacobs looks really slow to the hole this season. He was never quick, but he's a different player. I have to wonder if he is hurt. Of course, I am prejudiced against tall RBs, because, definitionally, it's easier to hit them, than it is the compact guys. It's fair to say Jacobs has never been a favorite of mine.

o. I'd like to say that ST&NO favorite Alex Smith has established himself as a clear-cut solution at QB for the 49ers, but the fact is, they've lost all three games which he has played in. Two of the three interceptions he threw on Sunday were off the hands of his own players, so I don't really put those on him, personally. On the positive side, that play he made for a TD pass at the end of the first half was an All-Pro caliber play, that not many QBs could make. He kept himself alive with his feet, and made a perfect throw on the run.

This is what I know about Smith. His biggest problem is that he struggles with the mechanics of drops from under center which are more than 3 steps. It's not natural to him, and his footwork is slow, like he is thinking about it. That got him sacked on A-gap blitzes two or three times Sunday.

Smith is much more comfortable from the shotgun, and I think I would go to a medium-gun alignment with him, that is often called the Pistol. It's run a bit at some colleges, notably Nevada, and the Chiefs used it with Tyler Thigpen last season. The QB lines up 3 yards behind the center, with the RB 3 yards behind the QB. It provides better directional evenness to your running game than lining up in a full shotgun with the RB to one side or the other of the QB.

Smith can do all the things you need your QB to do; it's just a matter of putting him in position to be successful. I'll be interested to watch this game on Thursday night, against Chicago, because he could have a huge game.

p. I did like what I saw of Vince Young, again. He has played like he's fine with being part of a conservative game plan, which is what he needs. The option stuff he was running with Chris Johnson was effective, and he did hit Justin Gage deep on a couple throws. One, in particular, used all of Gage's vertical. He was actually a starter on Missouri's basketball team in his college days.

q. The Titans are suddenly playing some defense again too, especially Michael Griffin at safety. I also was impressed with William Hayes, who has taken over at LDE for Jevon Kearse, who may have finally had it, at this point. The Titans are a threat to make noise as a spoiler in the second half of the season. The return of Cortland Finnegan has helped them a lot, too. He's not the greatest cover guy, but he's a hitter, and he is always close to the ball. He compares favorably to Asante Samuel in that way.

r. The Panthers just make me shake my head sometimes. They are almost completely back to their 12-4 level from last year lately, except for their QB play. They really erred by not getting one, but John Fox and Jake Delhomme are almost married. Delhomme is going to cost Fox his job, for his sentimentality.

Remember when the Chargers whacked Marty Schottenheimer coming off the 14-2 record? It was the right move. So would cutting ties with Delhomme have been, after last season. Of course, the Chargers blew the second part by hiring Norv Turner. The Panthers will get their chance to do something in the offseason, but they have no first-round pick. If San Francisco decides Alex Smith isn't their guy, he'd be perfect for a team like Carolina, who runs the ball and attacks downfield off of play action. Marc Bulger might be a possible fit too, as the Rams will almost certainly be drafting a QB this year. The Panthers will likely need to get a retread, though.

s. The Saints deserved to get beat on Sunday, but they managed to win anyway. That's something championship teams do, is win without their best stuff.

t. The Texans are really close to being a serious playoff contender, but a Chris Brown goal-line fumble and a Kris Brown missed field goal have basically cost them two games. People haven't noticed, but Matt Schaub is putting up Pro Bowl numbers in Houston. Old friend Gary Kubiak needs to get his team to execute better in key situations.

u. I said I wasn't going to pick the addict Jaguars again, but I did on Sunday, because the Chiefs are horrible. The addicts then proceeded to almost give the game away. Shocker! ST&NO favorite Reggie Nelson had a very good game for the Jags, and so did Brandon Marshall's best friend from college, Mike Sims-Walker.

v. Matt Cassel was the bright spot for the Chiefs, again, and he continues to do pretty well with very little help. I guarantee that the Chiefs don't regret trading for him, especially at the price they paid.

4. In honor of Veterans' Day, I wanted to blaze a different path by doing something apolitical and propaganda-free. It's Tangential Story Time, in ST&NO. Yay!!!

Most regular readers are at least generally aware that I spent 4 years in the United States Navy. I don't think I have ever mentioned that going to sea is basically my family business, though. My dad was in the Navy for 14 years, and then has worked as an executive for companies which supply the Navy for the last 20+ years. His brother recently retired as a long-time civilian mariner for the Navy, and his other brother was a Marine, who rode a Navy ship or two. My youngest brother is currently employed as a Naval civilian mariner, presently working for a ship stationed in Gaeta, Italy. There's lots of salt in my family.

So, I woke up early on Sucker-Free Saturday, and a headline popped into my RSS reader that grabbed my attention.

Navy ship built with WTC steel to go into service

I clicked the link to read the article, and saw something very interesting in the first sentence.

NEW YORK — The Navy is commissioning its newest battleship with a bow forged from steel that once held up the World Trade Center.

The Navy decommissioned its last four remaining Iowa-class Battleships in the early 1990s, and I didn't think that they had any plans to bring them back, despite some misgivings from parts of the Marine Corps that current Naval Gunfire Support programs wouldn't be sufficient for a Normandy-like shore landing.

A Battleship is a specific type of ship, like in the children's game of the same name. The Iowa class had wooden decks, and three turrets with three independent 50-caliber 16-inch guns each, for a total of 9 guns. The shells were 16 inches in diameter, and weighed 2,700 pounds each. (Modern Cruisers and Destroyers have one or two (mostly two) 5-inch, 54-caliber guns each, by comparison. Those shells are 5 inches in diameter, and weigh 70 pounds.) Each Iowa-class turret took a crew of 94 men to operate, and I actually served with a guy who was working in Turret #3 on the Iowa in 1989, when Turret #2 exploded and killed 47 men.

Battleships played a large part in the Pacific theater in World War II, and somewhat minor parts in Korea, Vietnam, and the first Persian Gulf War. The primary missions of Battleships were shore bombardment, and ship-to-ship combat. The advent of precision-guided munitions (like Harpoon missiles, for ship-to-ship combat), and the reality that 5-inch, 54-caliber guns are considered by the Navy to be sufficient for Naval Gunfire Support, largely made battleships unnecessary, and the last Battleships were decommissioned not long after World War II, with a few held in reserve status. Iowa, New Jersey, Wisconsin, and Missouri were each re-commissioned several times over the coming decades, with the Missouri being the last active battleship, being decommissioned for the last time in 1992. (The picture below is of the Iowa, shooting her guns to starboard.)

So, there's this new ship, called the USS New York, and the AP says it's a battleship. At first, I was skeptical, because I know that the Battleship mission is obsolete. Thinking about it, though, it is named after a state, like US battleships have historically been. I also know that the Bush Adminstration Pentagon had some meat-heads in high places of their procurement organization, who favored weapons systems with some badass factor to them, whether they were strictly necessary or not. But I would have heard about new Battleships, right? Hmmmm.

I called the guy who would know, my father Ed, who has appeared in ST&NO before, and I got my answer.

Ted: Hey, what do you know about this new ship, New York, that was partially built from World Trade Center steel?

Ed: Well, it's being commissioned this morning.

Ted: What kind of ship is it?

Ed: It's a piece-of-(bleep) LPD-17 class. A Gator Freighter. (Note: Gator Freighter is the ~~somewhat~~ very derisive name for Amphibious Navy ships which primarily carry Marines. Surface combatant guys, like me, don't think too much of Amphibs, or the people who ride them.)

Ted: Oh, OK. This AP reporter called it a battleship, and it's named after a state, which lends that some coincidental level of plausibility. I was skeptical, so I thought I'd ask somebody who knows.

Ed: <Scoffs> The media doesn't know what the hell they're talking about.

The media doesn't know what the hell they're talking about. Hmmm... Where have I heard that before?

5. What's New In Cleveland Update:

We have a great local brewery here called Great Lakes Brewing Company, that puts out this great stuff they call Christmas Ale every year, at this time. It tastes like cinnamon, but it's 7.5% alcohol by volume, so if you're like me, and you drink them like they're just expensive Bud Lights, they can really creep on you quickly.

So, I was at a the Cleveland State University bar called Becky's last Thursday, for my fraternity's monthly alumni happy hour. I was pleased to discover that they had Christmas Ale on tap, which I would later find out was running me $18 per pitcher, times 3 pitchers. Whatever. I am drinking some fine seasonal beer, and one of the guys says, "Hey, that's Mike Trivisonno right there, like 5 feet away."

Trivisonno is the local Radio Idiot, who I have disparaged on here before a few times, as being part of the Browns problems. I am not sure what he was doing at Becky's, of all places, but he was hanging out with some uglo-Americans, who may or may not have been related to him. He's holding court, and talking about the Browns, and how the city is cursed, and blah blah blah. (I hate it when people say "blah blah blah" in a conversation, but for some strange reason I just felt the strong need to type it there, like my ex-wife possessed my body momentarily, or something. Deal with it.)

It seems the work of the Radio Idiot is never finished. He bloviates even off the clock. I wonder if Rush Limbaugh does too.... That was a little deeper than a Shallow Thought. Focus.

OK, here's the deal. There's no such thing as curses. There's only confusing hope for a plan (hat tip to Michael Lombardi). That's what they do here, in all sports - even the Cavs, to some extent. (Let's face it: the Shaq acqusition is all about hope.)

Randy Lerner, by all accounts, is an OK guy, and he wants to win. He doesn't know anything about football, and I don't think he particularly wants to, either. He's actually a soccer guy, and he owns Aston Villa. He needs somebody to establish and run a program for him. It can't be a Head Coach, because he's too hands-off for that kind of arrangement. (That works fine with appropriately engaged owners like Robert Kraft, Bud Adams, and Pat Bowlen.)

He needs a Bill Parcells-type situation, which is why he is reportedly pursuing Mike Holmgren. I think Holmgren is going to end up saying he'd rather coach than head a front office, but it's a good idea to try. Whoever ends up being the head honcho is going to fire Eric Mangini, and start over from scratch, again. This is increasingly clear. The trick is going to be hiring the right honcho, for the first time since they came back into the NFL in 1999.

Ron Wolf and Ernie Accorsi aren't going to want the job, but if I were Lerner, I'd put on a full-court press to get one of them to help me find the right honcho. A guy I would make a run at is Jimmy Johnson, but only as a team president, not a coach. You hire him, tell him he only has to work 30 hours a week, some of it from Florida, and let him hire a focused GM, (maybe Chris Polian, or Marty Hurney if he is let go at Carolina?) and let them decide what to do with the coaching staff. Then, the chain of command is clear: Owner, to President, to GM, to Head Coach.

As a side note, I expect Mangini to struggle to find future work in coaching. His credibility in the NFL is shot at this point, and what college is going to hire a guy like that? Can you see him talking a kid into coming to play at State U? Absolutely not.

6. So, I know you've been wondering what a guy like me does on a Friday night. My gameplan changes every week, like any good team's (except the Colts); and this past Friday, my friend Ashley was looking for somebody to go with her to a happy hour event at the Cleveland Museum of Art. It sounded like fun, so I emailed her, and we went.

I'd like to tell you that I am a really cultured, artsy guy, but the truth is that I'm not. I'm kind of a rugged football, business, and politics guy. Somewhat embarassingly, it was the first time I had gone to the Museum in 7 1/2 years of living in Cleveland. Ashley is really smart, though, and I figured correctly that I would learn some stuff from her.

There was a Paul Gauguin exhibit, which was included in the price of admission. I looked up Gauguin on the interwebz, and learned that he was a contemporary of Vincent Van Gogh. Van Gogh's brother Theo was actually Gauguin's agent, and he got them to work together in 1888. They spent 9 weeks together at Van Gogh's famous Yellow House in Arles, and they quarreled constantly, because they saw the right way to paint very differently. (At the CMA, there were several examples, side-by-side, where both men painted the same thing, and they looked extremely different.) Both men had bouts of depression and suicidal tendencies. When Gauguin fled the tense situation after Van Gogh threatened him with a razor blade, Van Gogh freaked out, and went to a brothel, where he famously cut part of his ear off. They never saw each other again.

When I saw the news that the Chiefs cut Larry Johnson on Monday, the thought of his relationship with Todd Haley made me think of Gauguin and Van Gogh. Haley is a talented coach, and Johnson is a talented player. Both men have reputations for being difficult, though, and many (including me) were skeptical about the pairing when Haley was hired. Johnson's actions, around callng out Haley on Twitter and using gay slurs, were stupid. Really, it's not too different from cutting your ear off, on the foolishness scale.

Haley couldn't have Johnson play for him again, just as Gauguin couldn't return to Arles to work with Van Gogh. If you're betting on futures, take Haley's (like it would have been wise to take Gauguin.) Johnson is 30 and well-worn, old for a RB; Haley is 42, which is young for a Head Coach. Van Gogh died two years after the ear incident, while Gauguin had 13 more years, and a lot of productivity after that. Go with the guy who knew it was time to cut the cord, rather than the one who cut off his ear to spite his face.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. The worst thing about November is the jewelry commercials during football games. (Well, I guess I should be glad not to see Chevy commercials with any Mellencamp songs.) I have found the answer, friends, if you're into man-cavery like me.

If you have Sunday Ticket with SuperFan, the setup works like this. Watch games on a muted TV (or two, if you can manage it, like I do). Watch the Red Zone channel on a laptop, with SuperConnect, and listen to the sound on the laptop, preferably over some decent speakers. Red Zone has no commercials, so when they come on TV, you can just ignore the visual stimulus, and listen to the sounds of what's going on on the laptop screen. I spent the whole day Sunday with this, so I got to see a lot of football, without hearing incessantly about how you're no kind of man if you don't go to Jared, the Galleria of Jewelry, and that every kiss begins with Kay. Damn, it's great to be single. (This is Ourrrrrrr Country!!!!!)

Have a good week, and let's get ready for a Broncos victory in Washington on Sunday. No hysterics are necessary, let's just take some comfort in the fairly safe assumption that our coaching staff is driving the players to learn from and improve on their mistakes. See you next Tuesday!

Notes, Scribbles, and Things Jotted Down: Cardinals Edition

Dane Noble — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:23:16 -0000

by Nam Y. Huh - AP

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The NFC playoff picture seems to be working itself into a pretty clear picture, and, although it could still happen, my prediction of a 12-4 season for the Chicago Bears looks unobtainable. And honestly, at this point, I'm not so sure that our coaching is to blame.

Our GM brought in three new offensive linemen, and none of them have helped. Can Ron Turner be to blame for our porous running game? He didn't make the FA signings.

On the other side of the ball, we do not have the personnel to run a Tampa-2/ Cover-2 defense. Our secondary is a liability,,, is Lovie to blame for our lack of talent on defense? We just don't have the personnel.

The only mystery for me is the DL/ Rod Marinelli situation. It seems like half of our roster is comprised of defensive linemen, and we still chose to trade our 2010 2nd round draft pick for another pass rusher. Add to that, we have a guy that is well-known around the league as being one of the best DL coaches in the NFL... you'd think that would be an area of strength for us.

We know our offense is failing because of our personnel at OL, we know our LB corp is thinned out and that our secondary is incredibly weak... but where's the front 4? Why have we seen over the last few weeks our DL get dominated in the passing and rushing games? What's up with Coach Marinelli?

- Rashied Davis is still doing a mighty fine job on STs. And undersized WR making great open-field tackles... gotta love it.

- Tommie, Tommie, Tommie. What happened to Tommie Harris? Is his career coming to a quick halt? We can expect him not to be wearing a Bears uniform next season... but will he even be in the NFL? Maybe not, unless the Bungles give him a shot.

- One of my notes simply said that Fitz > Tillman. But, that was early in the game. Now, I'll change that note to say that it is a shame when Charles Tillman is our best coverage cornerback.

- I have been wondering for 2 weeks if Hunter Hillenmeyer was really 100% healthy. Rib injuries take much longer than 2 weeks to heal from, and I smelled a rat when he came back so quickly.

- Jay Cutler's first possession of the game: he walks onto the field with his head down, looking at the ground.

- Devin Hester, Earl Bennett, and Greg Olsen have all developed great hands. I mentioned last week that Cutler puts them in positions where they have to make tough catches... well, they can. Exhibit "A": that catch early in Q1 down the sidelines when Hester was blanketed by the CB. Cutler saw the single-coverage, audibled into a fly route, and made a picture-perfect throw to Hester. And what a catch!

- Garrett Wolfe made an outstanding tackle on KO coverage.

- While we looked like we might be able to generate some pressure on Kurt Warner early in the game, turns out, not really. Soft coverage on the WRs + zero pass rush = duplication of the Cincy game.

- Arizona's OL absolutely dominated Marinelli's DL. Passing plays, rushing plays... didn't matter. An inside source said that the Card's OL even formed a wall in front of the Bears showers after the game, and the DL couldn't bust through then either. They went home without showering.

- Johnny Knox was one cut away from daylight on the KOR following Arizona's second TD. But, he was going too fast to make that final cut.

- We finally saw Cutler looking downfield for our WRs more this week, especially to Hester. On a related note, kudos to the OL. While they still broke down and sucked a large part of the game, there were spurts where they did a good job of protecting the QB. Kudos guys.

- My OL grades: Chris Williams: B, Roberto Garza: B-, Olin Kreutz: C, Josh Beekman/ Frank Omiyale: D, Orlando Pace: C-

- 3rd and 16, 1st quarter. Earl Bennett runs a deep post, right into the lap of the safety. Had he turned that deep post into a skinny post, things would have happened. I know it's his first year on the field, but he's gotta be more aware. Against zone defenses, you have to find the soft spots... not run straight to a defender.

- My prediction of turnovers, penalties, and QB sacks for both teams did not some true. Well, Cutler did get nailed, and the Bears did have too many penalties. But I was thinking it would go both ways.

- As of the 10 minute mark in the second quarter, Matt Forte had exactly one rush.

- Question: If it's 3rd and 5 for Arizona, why are our DBs 12 yards off the WRs? I mean, I trust Lovie Smith, and I know he is having to play defense with some bad talent... but 12 yards off the WRs? Of course they converted a first down. And eventually scored a TD.

- Oh, speaking of converting... 3rd and 10, Arizona ball. Easy pitch and catch on a 12 yard curl route. 5 plays later, TD. Too easy, too soft.

- Kevin Payne plays hard, and hits hard. Good to see a bit of fire from someone on defense.

- Alex Brown fights hard. Even in the 4th quarter when we are getting schooled. Keep on fighting big guy.

- Injuries: Yikes. And now we have another game in three days. Friggin great. You know what though? We will beat San Francisco.

Notes, Scribbles, and Things Jotted Down: Browns Edition

Dane Noble — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 15:28:05 -0000

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Fans of the Chicago Bears got what we expected on Sunday: a complete dominance of a terrible team. In the long run, it probably doesn't make us feel any better about the season, but in the short run, it puts us a game over .500, and along pace with some of the other wild card potential teams in the NFC.

The defense looked good yesterday for the most part, but the offense continues to show a lack of rhythm. Luckily, we have some great young talent to build our future on, but that doesn't get us off the hook for the remainder of the 2009 season.

- Many will argue that the QB is the most important position on the field, while others will say it is collectively the OL. Roberto Garza can still hold his own, but Chris Williams is the only lineman that I think is worth banking on beyond 2009.

- Matt Forte is falling victim to our lackluster OL play. If I were to grade Forte, I'd say he is a 7 out of 10, with 8 being a Pro Bowl RB. Luckily, he is still very young, and dependable.

- Orlando Pace can still get it done at certain times, but is not consistent. One play, he'll have a dominate pancake block, and the next three plays he can't maintain his balance.

- Marcus Harrison showed good penetration yesterday.

- Danieal Manning showed great athleticism, and has incredible speed. Still out of position a lot, but Lovie Smith has done a good job with him. Hopefully, we see steady improvement over the year from Manning.

- I'll see what I can pull up numbers-wise, but Jay Cutler seems to look better in the shotgun.

- Speaking of Cutler, is it just me, or does he hang his head too much? Sees like his confidence level is down, and doesn't show much fire (outside of jawing with the opposing DC). It seems like the QB would be more of a leader...

- Offensive rhythm continues to be a problem. We'll look good one drive, only to look completely out of synch for the next three.

- Nick Roach is fast. Depending on Pisa Tinoisamoa's future as a Bear, I like Roach's athleticism. Hunter Hillenmeyer is intelligent, but not a starter for every Sunday. Next year, could we see Briggs, Urlacher, Roach?

- Cutler has forced our WRs to develop good hands. He makes some throws that many WRs couldn't catch. Good to see the progress of Devin Hester and Earl Bennett.

- Devin Hester should be our punt returner for years to come. He is still very young, and has more talent than I can say. Can you imagine how great he will be as he continues to develop into a formidable WR?

- Craig Steltz struggled in the defensive side of things this past offseason, but looks great on ST coverage.

- Kyle Orton was 10/15 passing for 35 yards in the first half in the Denver game yesterday.

- In the second half, Cleveland's RBs were getting past our front 4 too easily.

- When Cutler has time to throw, and plants his feet, he looks great. Too bad that doesn't happen more than once or twice per game.

- Corey Graham looked good on ST. What is his future with the Bears?

- Is Hunter Hillenmeyer really 100% healthy? I don't think so.

- Al Afalava continued to shine in run support. That kid is tough. Pay him more.

- Once again, we saw a run by Forte headed left, only to have the line collapse, and him cut back to his right for a TD run. His vision/ shiftiness is amazing.

- Hester limping in the 4th quarter after good run. Is he alright?

- Brady Quinn needs to get out of Cleveland. I wasn't a fan of his in college, and didn't think he would be good in the NFL, but have changed my mind. He will be a good NFL QB if he can find somewhere else t play.

- Hard to criticize Ron Turner when he doesn't have the personnel to work with. Our OL will continue holding back Forte, Cutler, and others as long as we keep sticking with what we have.

- JOSH BEEKMAN IS WHO WE THOUGHT HE WAS. HE GOT RUN SLAP OVER SEVERAL TIMES, AND GOT CUTLER NAILED BECAUSE OF IT. BEEKMAN IS NOT THE ANSWER.

- If we are going to fight for a wild card spot, the NFC East will be a tough challenger. It's early still, but it would be nice to see New Orleans get a win over Atlanta...

- The orange jerseys look great!

Matt Forte: Where's He Running?

Dane Noble — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:19:08 -0000

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Entering this 2009 season, the biggest concern expressed by many of us was the lack of significant talent in our wide receivers department. As the year has progressed though, it seems that focus has shifted.

We have experienced a surprisingly slow start in our running game, and it seems like Bears fans have finally started tapering down areas to place the blame. Early in the season, Ron Turner was being criticized for his uninventive play-calling. But, it didn't take long before Matt Forte was being assigned the blame for his poor start. However, in light of the loss in Atlanta, a lot of fans are starting to look at the offensive line as the root of the problem.

A few days ago, WCG member MuleTrain brought us some numbers from Football Outsiders that showed us how the running game is being spread out. After looking at that FanPost, I decided to take the analysis a little deeper, and exclusively focus on Matt Forte.

On the season, Matt Forte has rushed the ball 86 times for 294 yards (3.4 avg.) and 1 TD. Where is he running the ball?

LE: 12 rushes/ 64 yds/ 1 TD/ 1 first down run/ 5.33 yd avg. (includes a 37 yard TD run)

LT: 12 rushes/ 23 yds/ 0 TD/ 0 first downs/ 1.92 yd avg.

LG: 16 rushes/ 85 yds/ 0 TDs/ 2 first downs/ 5.31 yd avg. (includes a 61 yard run)

Mid: 18 rushes/ 40 yds/ 0 TDs/ 2 first downs/ 2.22 yd avg.

RG: 14 rushes/ 40 yds/ 0 TDs/ 3 first downs/ 2.8 yd avg.

RT: 5 rushes/ 24 yds/ 0 TDs/ 1 first down/ 4.8 yd avg.

RE: 9 rushes/ 19 yds/ 0 TDs/ 0 first downs/ 2.11 yd avg.

I know many of you don't like the idea of subtracting runs, but if you do take away the 37 yard run and the 61 yard run, Forte would be averaging 2.45 yds over the LE and 1.6 yds over the LG.

I even broke down the rushing plays by down, and came up with:

1st down: 39 rushes/ 75 yards (1.92 avg)

2nd down: 38 rushes/ 209 yards (5.5 avg), which includes both big runs. (3.08 avg without them)

3rd down: 9 rushes/ 11 yards (1.22 avg)

The majority of running plays are being called in the middle, and over the two guards. When they do run to the tackle and outside, they call almost twice as many plays to the left side of the line.

The lowest average yards per carry comes over the LG spot, Frank Omiyale's spot. That is also where more running plays get called than any other place.

The right side of the line is arguable where the two best run blockers reside (Roberto Garza and Chris Williams), yet 40 running plays have been to Orlando Pace and Frank Omiyale's side, versus 28 to Garza and Williams's side.

We always have to take into account the strength of the defense, and where the best run stuffers are. But, over 5 games, I think we can say that we just aren't evenly running to both sides of the line.

Say what you will about Matt Forte this season, but these numbers show that none of our offensive linemen are doing a good job at run blocking. The only place where we have a good yard per carry average is over the right tackle (4.8 yds), but we have only run the ball 5 times there.

Take away the 61 yard run, and our left guard and left tackle spots are only yielding a 1.6 and 1.9 yard average respectively. Pace has shown to be effective in the passing game, but is obviously being just as ineffective as Omiyale during rushes.

Bottom line: The Bears do not have any offensive linemen who are reliable in the running game (only exception might be Williams, but the sample size is too small). We cannot continue to put the burden on Matt Forte, and honestly, Ron Turner is not seeing success at running the ball in any hole, on any down.

We are already without our 1st and 2nd round draft picks in the 2010 draft, so the Bears are going to have to decide how to get some offensive linemen on the roster next season that can actually do a good job blocking.

Olin Kreutz and Orlando Pace are considered "over the hill" in terms of years played, Roberto Garza is getting close to that group as well, and Frank Omiyale is obviously not a long-term answer at this point either. That leaves us next year with possibly one offensive lineman that we can rely on, and the jury is still out on him.

And of course, there is the rest of the 2009 season as well.

Free agents, anyone?

Notes, Scribbles, and Things Jotted Down: Falcons Edition

Dane Noble — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 12:17:56 -0000

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Shame on the Bears coaches. I don't say that too often, but last night you would have thought that we had to play that game on short notice. There is no way that a team who wants to be significant contenders in their conference (or division for that matter) can have two weeks to prepare for a game, and end up looking so lost.

Penalties, miscues, blown coverage... we had two weeks to get our game together. Shame on our coaches.

- Garrett Wolfe looked nice in kick off coverage. Not sure why he's making special teams tackles when he's the only other RB active for the game, but he looked good nonetheless.

- Ron Turner tried twice to throw the ball to Jason McKie, once as a screen in Q1, and once in play-action near the goal line in Q3.

- Matt Forte continues to excel in picking up the blitz. Great blocker.

- I am so very tired of seeing Jay Cutler throw off-balance. His Happy Feet Syndrome has got to be coached out of him. Set your feet Jay!

- Defense came out strong at the start of the game, with three straight 3/ outs for Atlanta, and a punt in their first 4 possessions.

- Nick Roach plays hard. He needs some coaching, and more experience, but I like his energy on the field.

- Orlando Pace and Chris Williams had their hands full last night with John Abraham and Krory Biermann. Considering those tough match-ups, I give the nod to Pace/ Williams. Nice job fellas.

- Should an offensive holding penalty really be 10 yards? That seems excessive. Maybe 5 yards and replay the down.

- Frank Omiyale is not a long-term answer for our OL.

- Roberto Garza can still drive folks 10 yards down the field. He got beat last night a few times as well, but it is fun to see his meanness come out every now and then.

- The Falcons WRs were finding holes in our coverage early in the game, but luckily it took Matt Ryan a while to find his rhythm. Early miscues kept us in the game.

- If you, or anyone you know, still thinks Devin Hester should not be returning punts (ChiFan13), please stop. Hester is good at PRs.

- Tony Gonzales is strong. We tried stripping the ball a couple of times when a normal person would not have been able to hang on to the ball. Tony G did.

- Pisa Tinoisamoa = "Cement Wall" according to Al Michaels. Hard for a nickname like that to stick if he can't stay healthy.

- Trade deadline is Tuesday at 4pm. Jerry Angelo has to be thinking of bringing in another LB.

- Jay Cutler is over-throwing his WRs too much. Definitely a symptom of not setting his feet.

- Bears pass rush? Hello? Hellooooo? Two weeks to get ready, and zero sacks? No defensive lineman had more than 2 tackles. Shame on our coaches.

- Atlanta had two straight 3 and outs to start the second half. Per usual for our defense. How about sustaining that throughout an entire half, coaches?

- Desmond Clark showed some great hands, just like he did in the pre-season. We've got to get him more involved in the passing game.

- I am not typically too harsh on Ron Turner's play calling, but our red zone performance last night was terrible. You don't call a sweep on the goal line!

- Al Afalava continues to make big plays. He was out of position a couple of times, but also did a mighty fine job on Tony G a few times last night. I like Afalava.

- 9 more penalties last night. Shame on our coaches.

- Special teams coverage was ungood. Dave Toub, you had two weeks like everyone else did.

- If we play an entire game of good football, we can beat anyone on our schedule. Unfortunately, we are our own worst enemy. Time to reevaluate some things, and seriously look at our OL and coaching staff.

Notes, Scribbles, and Things Jotted Down: Seahawks Game

Dane Noble — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 14:01:07 -0000

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A lot of us expected to roll into Seattle and have an easy Sunday afternoon, especially considering the injuries the Seahawks were nursing. But, to their credit, Seattle went down swinging.

- Roberto Garza does a good job when he pulls to the outside to lead block. He's done that quite a few times so far this season.

- The offensive line doesn't seem to hold the pocket together for very long. Jay Cutler seems to have less time to make a decision than a lot of other QBs.

- On one play, Cutler did actually have good protection, but he rolled out of the pocket (and into pressure) anyway. I guess he is used to not having much time.

- Nick Roach played very aggressively last night. He wasn't always in the right place, but shed some good blocks, and hit very hard.

- Danieal Manning showed some great sideline to sideline speed while playing in the secondary.

- Charles Tillman seems to get beat on a lot of routes. He is constantly either out of position, or getting beat deep. But then he'll come out and force a fumble or get an INT, so I'm not sure what to think about him.

- Lance Briggs is really good. I wish he had slowly been learning the MLB position over the last couple of years.

- Bennett is quick to avoid a hit after the catch. Whether he is ducking out in the open field, or heading out of bounds, the kid doesn't want to get hit.

- On that crucial 4th and inches at the end, the camera was on Tommie Harris... and before the snap, he looked gassed. He looked like he could barely stand up.

- I hate the bend but don't break defense. I hate the bend but don't break defense. I hate the bend but don't break defense. There, I said it 3 times while clicking my heels together.

- Matt Forte quietly had over 100 yards in total offense last night.

Johnny Knox averaged 33.5 yards on four kick off returns last night.

Okay, so now for a couple of other things...

I found myself last night (again) trying to convince myself that it is still early in the season, and that our offense still needs more time to jell. We have a ton of new faces on our offense that have never played together before, and that certainly has got to play into why we have zero offensive rhythm for a lot of the first three games.

Sure, you can look at the stats, and say that we are improving with each game played. But the stats don't always reflect the true story. Last night, until well into the 4th quarter, we had zero offensive rhythm. Period. Our offense could not get squat accomplished until late in the game.

I hate having a Bye week so early in the season, but our offense needs the extra time after the first 4 games of the season. We have Detroit next week, then 2 weeks to prepare for Atlanta. We have got to figure out how to get a quicker start on offense by then.

The Bears also registered three more sacks on the season. Briggs, Anthony Adams, and Mark Anderson all recorded a sack lat night. The Bears also had 6 QB hits.

Chicago also got hit with another 60 yards worth of penalties. Twice, our flag gave Seattle a first down. We have got to be more disciplined.

Analysis: How The Chicago Bears Look Coming Into Week 1

Brandon — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 12:00:37 -0000

by David Duprey - AP

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I'm at a major disadvantage here because I didn't watch the Chicago Bears at all this preseason. I'm sure there are many Bears fans reading the site this week (Welcome!) so feel free to correct all my errors and omissions in the comments. Usually the preseason isn't very telling, but on the eve of the QB Jay Cutler era, it would've been nice to have gotten a sneak peak. Mitchell already looked at the matchups. I'm really trying to get a good look at the Bears.

A Tale of Two Pass Rushes. One thing the Bears and Packers had in common last season, that neither team wants to repeat again in 2009, is their inability to sack the quarterback. In 2008, Chicago had 28 sacks as a team and the Packers had 27. To address the problem, the Packers made major changes by hiring Dom Capers as defensive coordinator and converting to a 3-4 defense. On the other hand, Chicago didn't rock the boat. Lovie Smith will now call the defensive plays and defensive coordinator Bob Babich will focus on coaching the linebackers. The big addition in personnel was drafting DE/DT Jarron Gilbert in the 3rd round to provide an inside pass rush. They also drafted DE Henry Melton in the 4th round, but his season ended when he was placed on I.R. The bigger problem might be the ongoing injury problems to Pro Bowl DT Tommie Harris, who was playing on one leg in early August, and everyone is just expecting he'll be out with injuries at some point this season. Will the addition of Gilbert, and the return of Smith to the defensive play calling, be enough to improve their pass rush?

If the pass rush doesn't get to QB Aaron Rodgers, then he could be looking at a cast of unknowns in Chicago's secondary. It's all about injuries, injuries, injuries, as the Bears have been without three starters (CB Charles Tillman, CB Zack Bowman, and FS Daniel Manning) for most of the preseason. When the Bears depth chart was announced, and it showed CB Trumaine McBride, CB Nathan Vasher, and FS Al Afalava in the starting lineup, it seemed the general consensus in the comments was horror. Bowman was finally healthy last week at Cleveland. According to Kevin Seifert, Bowman should get his first career start, while Manning should play in the nickel.

Chicago was very good at stopping the run last season, and LB Lance Briggs and LB Brian Urlacher should lead a very good unit again in 2009. Although losing DT Dusty Dvoracek for the season with a torn ACL won't help their depth. But even great units have their bad days. RB Ryan Grant had his best game last season (145 yards and 1 TD) against Chicago at Lambeau.

How about the offense? After four paragraphs, you'd think I'd have something to say about the offense. GM Jerry Angelo has done everything he can to turn the offense around in one season. Cutler was a great QB in Denver, and he should still be great. To make sure Cutler starts all 16 games, they added three offensive lineman in free agency. LT Orlando Pace has made it through all of training camp without an injury and he'll start alongside returning LG Roberto Garza and C Olin Kreutz. RG Frank Omiyale was signed as a free agent from the Panthers, and former 1st round OL Chris Williams is at RT. WR Devin Hester and TE Greg Olson have never been great receivers, but Cutler could make them great. Every fantasy draft is expecting a break out season for RB Matt Forte. This should be the best offense the Bears have seen in many seasons, but it still has to prove it on the field.

In Chicago, the offense should be much better. But injuries are threatening to tear the defense apart. Will this season be a case of one step forward (on offense) and one step back (on defense) for the Bears?

The Season Is Upon Us!

Mitchell_M — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 14:11:04 -0000

by Jason Babyak - AP

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Today is Tuesday, September 8th. In five short days, it will be September 13th. Sunday. Do you know what that means?

Yes, actual meaningful NFL football is back again. All the pointless preseason predictions and fantasy football fallacies (lol, alliteration) can finally come to an end, and the boys start playing games that actually count towards something. Let's have a quick, unscientific breakdown of how Green Bay stacks up to the first ~~victims~~ opponents of the season: the Chicago Bears.

The game is a complicated one, but it can be easily broken down into four main matchups: one team's rushing offense against the other's defense, one team's passing offense against the other's defense, and vice versa. Special teams, coaching, depth, and weather are all important, but for now, these four areas are the beginning of the buildup towards the opener. Let's get to it, shall we?

CHI rushing vs. GB defense: The obvious place to start is with Chicago's Matt Forte. The 3rd round pick lit the Windy City on fire during his rookie campaign, racking up 1,715 yards on 379 total touches. He had so much involvement, some said that he was the Bears' offense in 2008. And they wouldn't be too far off: Forte accounted for 73% of Chicago's rushing attempts and nearly 35% of his team's offensive yardage, well beyond anyone else in the league.

Forte's detractors say that he's primed for a sophomore slump, citing the dreaded 'Curse of 370' as reason for him to regress in 2009. I personally doubt this theory's application to Forte, and I certainly don't believe that last season's workload will affect him until after Week 10 at the earliest. Forte will be fine.

As far as depth goes, Chicago has little need for a 3rd down back or goal line specialist because Forte fills those roles so well. However, their roster did take a hit when Kevin Jones, formerly a first rounder from Detroit, went down for the year with a torn ankle ligament. Garrette Wolfe (4.6 ypc in 2008) and The Other Adrian Peterson (5.0 ypc in 2008) fill out the running back stable, but neither of them averaged more than 2 carries per game last season.

When blocking is concerned, Chicago boasts an above-average offensive line. Olin Kreutz and Roberto Garza are solid run blockers inside, but the decision to start Frank Omiyale over Josh Beekman could be the weak link in the trenches. Orlando Pace is no longer the dominant run blocker he once was, but his 6'7" 325 lb. frame can still move DEs out of the way. Last year's first round pick Chris Williams seems to be healthy for 2009, but the amount of time spent in the trainer's room figures to have hindered his progress. He might be a turnstile, or he might be a brick wall. We have no way to know. Jason McKie and Desmond Clark are decent blockers out of the backfield and on the edge respectively, while Greg Olsen's blocking is not quite there yet.

Against Green Bay's defense, it's hard to predict exactly what will happen. The 3-4 alignment gives much better flexibility when it comes to runs outside the tackles, but the gaps between the NT and DEs might result in open running lanes between the tackles if the ILBs can't disengage from blocks. However, if Cullen Jenkins, B.J. Raji, and Ryan Pickett penetrate just one or two yards in the backfield, they can short-circuit any rushing attempts the Bears throw at us. When Forte gets to the linebackers, the only real concern is Nick Barnett's ability to make tackles after the long rehab from an ACL tear. Brady Poppinga, Aaron Kampman, Brandon Chillar, and A.J. Hawk are all adept tacklers and will slow down Forte as he makes cuts.

Advantage: Chicago. The 3-4 defense looks great, but doesn't have experience handling a versatile back like Forte or a power run scheme that Chicago employs.

CHI passing vs. GB defense: Jay Cutler made headlines when he complained his way out of Denver. However, Green Bay's defense needs to focus less on his child-like tendencies and more on the cannon growing out of his shoulder. Cutler has developed a nice rapport with TE Greg Olsen, and Matt Forte is always a threat to catch out of the backfield. However, Chicago suffers from a major shortage of proven WRs, as Earl Bennett has 0 career catches and Devin Hester, while greatly improved, is still a burner trying to become a receiver.

Chicago's pass protection is the major question mark coming into the season, as Orlando Pace has too many miles on him while Chris Williams doesn't have enough. Both have the tools to be elite pass protectors, but Pace is getting old and Williams doesn't know how to use them just yet. Will they keep Cutler off his back, or will they be helping him up off the turf? Olin Kreutz will help as much as he can by continuing to be a smart center who makes excellent line calls.

Green Bay's secondary is widely regarded as a top unit in the NFL. Charles Woodson can cover just about anything, and Al Harris has remained a top-flight corner despite his declines in speed and agility. Nick Collins is an excellent athlete playing the deep safety, and Tramon Williams is one of the better nickel corners in the league. Two problems in the secondary are Atari Bigby, who doesn't cover receivers all that well, and depth behind Williams at CB.

The biggest coverage questions, especially against Chicago, lie with the LB corps. Brandon Chillar was a shut-down defender against TEs last season, but his move inside might take him away from that role. Aaron Kampman spent his entire NFL career at DE, so his coverage skills are likely below average right now. Clay Matthews is a decent coverage linebacker, but his hamstring injury hindered his preseason development and pushed Brady Poppinga into the starting job.

Green Bay's best chance to clamp down on the Bears' passing attack is to use the outstanding pass rush they've developed throughout the offseason. Jay Cutler isn't as panicky as Kurt Warner when facing the rush, but he's not Peyton Manning either. If the blitz schemes can force Cutler into hurried decisions, he's liable to force a throw into an area that isn't open. Disguising blitz packages and using stunts will hopefully confuse both Cutler and the offensive line, giving the Bears few opportunities to air it out.

Advantage: Push. If I had to choose, I'd choose Green Bay, but only slightly.

GB rushing vs. CHI defense: Green Bay's rushing attack left much to be desired last season, mainly due to Ryan Grant's snail-like start and a game of musical chairs with the offensive line. However, Mike McCarthy has sought to reverse last year's fortunes in the ground game, which has already looked better in the preseason. By committing to a starting five early on, McCarthy has given the five-some of Clifton, Colledge, Spitz, Sitton, and Barbre a chance to develop a cohesiveness up front that the team has missed for years now. Combined with Ryan Grant's improved health and conditioning and DeShawn Wynn's newfound commitment to the run game, Green Bay should have a competent rushing attack.

Chicago's defense is still formidable, but is showing visible signs of decline. Tommie Harris is unblockable when healthy, but his injuries have made that rarely the case. Adwale Ogunleye has never been a stout run defender, and Alex Brown and Anthony Adams are fringe starters that lack overwhelming size. Lance Briggs is still an outstanding defender, Pisa Tinoisamoa was an excellent pickup from the Rams, and Brian Urlacher looks healthy enough to stall his decline.

Advantage: Chicago. Green Bay needs to show their dominant run game in practice, not just in theory.

GB passing vs. CHI defense: Green Bay's passing attack needs little introduction. Aaron Rodgers has been outstanding in the offseason, and gets to work with a corps of receivers that is the envy of any NFL team not from Arizona. Greg Jennings is recovered from his concussion suffered against the Cardinals, and Donald Driver, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Donald Lee, and Jermichael Finley are all excellent route runners able to produce after the catch.

In the preseason, Green Bay's pass protection has been nothing short of fantastic. Aaron Rodgers was hardly touched throughout the four-week exhibition schedule; he often had more time than he knew what to do with. Chad Clifton is getting up in years, but the coaching staff believes he's got at least one year left in him. Daryn Colledge, Jason Spitz, and Josh Sitton are all above-average in pass protection, and Allen Barbre has at least been servicable.

Chicago's secondary is in shambles right now. Gone is Mike Brown, once a terror in the defensive backfield. He is replaced by Kevin Payne, who started all 16 games last year because of injuries. At the other safety is Al Afalava, a rookie out of Oregon. Trumaine McBride and Nathan Vasher are at the corners, but they simply aren't able to cover the likes of Jennings and Driver. Charles Tillman just started practicing on Monday after offseason back surgery. CB Zack Bowman and S Daneal Manning are both struggling with hamstring issues.

To illustrate the Bears' concerns with their pass defense, I turn to ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert:

Can those players [Tillman, Bowman, Manning] possibly be ready to match up against a Packers passing offense that proved laser-sharp at every turn this preseason? (One statistic to chew on: Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers averaged 11.3 yards per attempt this preseason, more than any NFL passer with more than 17 attempts.)

To avoid a massacre, Chicago needs to get after Aaron Rodgers. Adwale Ogunleye has the tools of an outstanding pass rusher despite his long-coming decline. Tommie Harris is an outstanding inside rusher. Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Pisa Tinoisamoa, and Hunter Hillenmeyer (remember him?) are above-average to great blitzers. Will they be able to take advantage of a developing Packer offensive line?

Advantage: Green Bay by a country mile. Aaron Rodgers was excellent against Chicago last year and has only improved.

Preliminary verdict: It all comes down to the passing game for Green Bay and the running game for Chicago. If Green Bay can't contain Matt Forte, Chicago will be able to control the clock and decide the game. If Chicago can't contain Aaron Rodgers, it's going to be ugly for the Bears. To quote Bob LeGere of the Daily Herald,

In their press release for Sunday night’s nationally televised season opener at Green Bay against the Packers, the Bears list their starting cornerbacks as Trumaine McBride and Nate Vasher on the "unofficial depth chart."

Good thing it’s "unofficial," because if the Bears are forced to line up with McBride and Vasher covering Greg Jennings and Donald Driver all night they’ll lose by 4 touchdowns.

I'm going to avoid making an outright prediction this early in the week, but I'll let the voters do the talking for me.

Poll

What outcome do you see for the season opener on Sunday night?

Big GB win.

830 votes

Close GB win.

649 votes

Too close to call right now.

70 votes

Close CHI win.

194 votes

Big CHI win.

97 votes

1840 votes | Poll has closed

Bears Depth Chart Revealed!

Dane Noble — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 03:10:47 -0000

The Bears revealed the depth chart this evening, via this interactive chart. I'll list the starters, but you can visit the team's official site for the full depth.

Offense

WR: Earl Bennett

LT: Orlando Pace

LG: Frank Omiyale

C: Olin Kreutz

RG: Roberto Garza

RT: Chris Williams

TE: Greg Olsen

WR: Devin Hester

QB: Jay Cutler

FB: Jason McKie

RB: Matt Forte