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Bills/Buccaneers: Final Predictions from Buc 'Em

Brian Galliford — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 15:15:10 -0000

More photos » by David Duprey - AP

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set to take the field of play in Ralph Wilson Stadium for the first time in team history tomorrow when they take on our Buffalo Bills. With both Tampa Bay and Buffalo coming off of Week 1 defeats - and yeah, one of those losses was a touch more excruciating than the other - desperation for a win is high on both sides of the field this weekend.

Buffalo will be without MLB Paul Posluszny, who is out indefinitely nursing a broken forearm back to health. Meanwhile, CB Terrence McGee is listed as questionable after missing Friday's practice with back spasms. Tampa Bay is not quite as healthy as Buffalo; C Jeff Faine (triceps) and CB E.J. Biggers (shoulder) are out, WR Antonio Bryant (knee) is doubtful, and DE Kyle Moore (groin) and TE John Gilmore (ankle) are questionable.

Joining us for one last day of pre-game fun are "Buc Wild" and "Niko521bucs," the lead bloggers over at SB Nation's Buccaneers blog, Buc 'Em. I asked them to make predictions for this weekend's big game, and they very kindly obliged. You'll find their predictions - along with my own - after the jump.

Prediction from Niko521bucs at Buc 'Em:

As hard as this is for me to say, if the Bucs don't win this week, they won't win for a long time, and the season WILL spiral into a 3-win season, no matter how good the offense is. My prediction is 24 to 23; whoever wins, it will be by that score. I hope we are capable of scoring extra points with our three touchdowns!

Prediction from Buc Wild at Buc 'Em:

I'll echo Niko's sentiments. This game, with games vs NYG, at WAS, at PHI, vs CAR and vs NE (in London) on the docket after this, seems to be the most winnable game. Now, any team can win on any day, but if I were a betting man, this would be the most likely victory out of our first 7 games.

We've looked at how Byron has done, we've see how the Bills move the ball, who they rely on. We've discussed the Bills' strengths and weaknesses, as well as the Bucs'. I think Buffalo will be a bit weaker than we think. They're already missing their starting middle linebacker, and may be missing their top corner (McGee) along with Lynch this weekend. If that happens, it lessens the hit of Bryant being out (if he ends up not playing).

I'm throwing my own Hail Mary here. I'm having faith that Bates and Morris fixed the problems on defense. I see a different scheme that generates pressure. I'm not too worried about T.O. or Jackson, its Evans and his speed that scare me. The Bucs O won't be as good, Leftwich will turn it over for the first time, but the Bucs will pound out a close game. The Bucs have to keep it close and weather the no-huddle storm. This is probably the last game I pick the Bucs to win for awhile, so slap me down for a 24-20 win.

Before I get to my prediction, I feel compelled to say something. If being up for a winnable game in between several difficult games is the best reason for predicting a winner, then there are two serious problems here: number one, the head coach is doing a terrible job of keeping his players focused, and number two, one is not considering the same exact factor for the other team. Buffalo follows up this game with dates vs NO, at MIA, and then "catch a break" with a home date vs CLE. So let's not pretend the Bills aren't desperate, too, shall we?

Prediction from yours truly:

As much as I'd like to see Buffalo prove all of its skeptics incorrect and really lay it to the Bucs after going toe-to-toe with New England - a supposed Super Bowl favorite - I just can't bring myself to actually predict it will happen. The Bucs are a tough matchup for the Bills because of their running game and their far-too-unheralded offensive line. I just don't think, ultimately, that the Bucs have enough defense to contain all of the Bills' offensive weapons - and yeah, it's been a long, long time since I've written anything like that. This game will be close for three quarters, and the Bills will pull away at the end. Bills 27, Buccaneers 17

Your predictions? They go in the comments section. Have at it.

Are the Bucs utilizing Kellen Winslow correctly?

Buc Wild — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 16:00:37 -0000

by Brian Blanco - AP

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One of the bigger moves the Tampa Bay Buccaneers made this off-season was to acquire Kellen Winslow from the Cleveland Browns. We essentially drafted him with our second pick, and given his productivity, it would seem to be a good "pick." Though the knocks on K2 are obvious (injury-prone, attitude problem, selfish, can't ride a bike), he brings an obvious presence to the middle of the field and fits into the prototype of a receiving tight end.

But are the Bucs prepared to utilize him to his strengths?

Almost immediately upon coming over to Tampa, the Bucs ponied up a pretty nice contract for Winslow, a 6 year, $36.1 million dollar deal, including approximately $20.1 million in guarantees for a guy who hasn't seen many full season (1 in 5 years, 12+ games in 2 of 5 years). This would lead me to believe that Morris, Jagodzinski and the entire organization had a way to utilize Winslow as a featured player in the offense.

To take alook at the numbers, I'm going to focus on the last three yeasr (2006-2008) since he only played 2 games in the previous 2 years to that (2004, 2005). His numbers are pretty spectacular for a tight end. Over the 3 year period, he caught 214 passes (high of 89, average of 71) for 2,409 yards (high of 1,106, average of 803 yards) for 11 touchdowns. The touchdown numbers are a bit light, but I'll chalk that up to the system he was playing in, and the team he was playing for. All in all, some solid numbers.

To go a bit further, let's look at some of his advanced stats, courtesy of Football Outsiders.

Year	G	DYAR	Rank	YAR	Rank	DVOA	Rank	VOA	Rank
2008	10	-23	35	-31	35	-11.50%	32	-13.00%	33
2007	16	78	14	85	13	0.80%	24	1.50%	24
2006	16	118	4	111	5	7.90%	12	6.90%	14

Before I even get into the analysis, it looks like the Bucs acquired a player on the decline here. After posting superb numbers in 2006, his positional ranking and values have fallen witha pretty sharp decline. But we'll touch on this a bit later.

DYAR, as a refresher, is Defense-Adjusted Yards Over Replacement, or how any player would perform over a "replacement level" player at that position. Positive number means they contribute X number of yards more than a replacement player and a negative means they are performing worse than the replacement. We can see that Winslow was 118 yards better than a replacement level player in 2006, putting him 4th (positional ranking only). Since '06, he's fallen to a point where in 2008, a replacement level player would have netted more yards in the situation. (YAR provides a similar look, but is not adjusted for defenses)

DVOA or Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average can be recapped as

DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

We see the same thing, a sharp decline from 2006 to 2008. You can look at this one of two ways. One, Winslow is not as good as people think. His bravado and chest thumping lead to more Sportscenter references, thus he gets hyped more. Or two, his declining numbers are a product of playing on a Cleveland team that has seen no stability at quarterback, an offense that is stagnant, and a renewed focus on the running game.

All of this leads to great information for another post, did the Bucs overpay for Winslow, but as Mark McGwire would say, "I'm not here to talk about the past." I want to look at how the Bucs plan to utilize Winslow.

We've seen three games in the preseason and Winslow has one more reception than I do. He has one catch for 5 yards in the first game. That's it. I was a bit skeptical of the move to begin with, based on coach Jags history of offense (run, run, run, play action, run) and wondered if a new wrinkle or two would be thrown in. I'm well aware we're only in the preseason and coaches typically don't spill all the beans in meaningless games, but thus far, Winslow has been utilized like a John Gilmore would be, to block and run short routes.

I've watched all three games, having attended the home game. I don't claim to see all or know all, but I can't recall a deep route, a seam route, or any type of 10+ yard route for Winslow. This baffles me. You bring in a player for a second round pick who, when healthy, has been fairly productive, but you won't allow him to get out of the backfield. Seems curious.

I don't know if Winslow has been slow to pick up the playbook (that rumor started in OTA's), if he is going half speed to make sure he doesn't get hurt, if the coaches aren't showing their hands yet, or if he's lost a half step. I'm obviously hoping as a Bucs fan that Jags and Morris are just holding him back until it counts.

The concerns are the structure of the offense. I've seen the tight end best used on playction bootlegs, where the tight ends stays to block and then either runs a corner route if he is on the side of the boot, or a mid-level drag if he starts on the non-boot side. I don't forsee Leftwich doing much boot-legging on the field, so that throws that play out. If the plan is to run 30 times a game, Winslow will be in blocking and taking more of a beating than a receiver. (Let's not forget, Morris and Jags both have said they see Winslow as their #2 WR).

Sure, he can still run routes on a typical 3, 5, or 7 step dropback, same for a regular play action pass, but based on what we've seen thus far, the strengths of our starting quarterback and starting offense, I'm not sold that Winslow will be correctly used as either a top end tight end, or a $36 million dollar man. The blocking portion could be done by any league average tight end and based on his route tree thus far, number of passes his direction and overall numbers (1 catch, 5 yards) it would seem that either we overpaid, overvalued, underutilized Winslow or are saving it all. I guess they don't want to wear him out in the preseason, since Winslow's legs half an obvious expiration date.

What do you think? Removing any thoughts about Winslow as a player, do you think Jags will use him as areceviing threat based on what we've seen so far?

Position Battles: Tight End

wiltfongjr — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 16:00:11 -0000

One Preseason game down and three to go. These games are meaningless as far as wins and loses go, but for the bubble players, the older vets trying to hold off the younger replacement, the new free agent trying to impress, and the rookie looking to make an impression, there are no more important games they'll ever play.

These fringe players need to get on the field as much as possible, not only to impress their coaches, but to get game film for scouts across the league to peruse. Players stuck behind established veterans go into the season knowing the odds for them making the team are slim, so getting reps in the games are so valuable. You can only see so much during training camp and practices. Playing against live competition, that are just as hungry as you, is the best way to determine roster spots.

The Tight End position for the Bears has been very stable the last few seasons. Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen form arguably one the best 1-2 combos in the league. Both are locks to make the final roster. Second year man Kellen Davis and free agent acquisition Michael Gaines are both looking to stick, and so far I don't see either having an obvious advantage over the other.

Kellen Davis is an athletic pass catching TE that should be a better blocker due to his physical attributes alone (6'7" 262 and solid). Former Detroit Lion Michael Gaines (6'2" 267) has been advertised as a better blocker with average hands. A fifth TE, former practice squad player Fontell Mines, has already been ruled out for the season due to injury and may end up an injured reserve.

The Bears need that third TE to be a blocker. Blocking in football is as much technique as it is power. But if you have both, you will have a nice career in the NFL. Losing John Gilmore a couple years ago hurt the short yardage run game. He was technically strong and physically imposing (6'5" 257). You need that nasty blocking TE that will stick his nose in there and work his tail off to get the job done. Olsen will never be that guy. His blocking has, and will continue to improve, but he's paid to catch balls. Clark has made himself into a better than average blocker after playing wide receiver in college at Wake Forest, but when you go double tight, and sometimes 3 tight end sets, you ~~want~~, check that, need, a guy you can count on to make a key block. Last year the Bears used Kellen Davis in that role, and the signing of Michael Gaines should tell you all you need to know about their comfort level with him as the number three TE. Has Davis improved as a blocker? Last month Tight End coach Rob Boras had a few things to say about him on chicagobears.com;

Like everybody, he's a work in progress. He's getting better. ... We would like him to develop into being a dominant blocker for us, so to be that he’s got to play with better pad level.

At 6'7" I'm sure playing to high has been a problem he's had his entire football life. The hardest thing to teach a tall blocker is to stay low. Davis has a few inches on mostly everyone he's asked to block, so he has to condition his body to get lower through repetition, repetition, and repetition. An NFL TE has to be technically sound, he isn't going to overpower many defenders at this level. Will he put in the work to improve? A knock on Davis out of Michigan State was that he didn't work as hard as he should, it's something that has dogged him in first two years in Chicago, although I have yet to hear about a coach calling him out on his work ethic.

Michael Gaines has the ability to not only line up as a tight end, but to line up in the backfield as a fullback (or H-Back), something we've heard about but didn't see in the Buffalo game. He has versatility and experience over Davis to make the final roster, but Davis has the higher ceiling. If Gaines takes to a special teams role he could have the edge. Last year Davis was a productive member of the third phase, and this year he's been practicing as one of the 2 man wedge on the kick return team.

After just 1 preseason game, with Davis catching 2 for 29 yards and Gaines catching none, there really isn't a clear cut resolution to who has the job. There is an outside chance the Bears keep all four, but that would be at the expense of either a wide receiver or running back (I'll look at the RB position battle on Thursday). I believe Davis will be given at least one more year to show what he can do. If the Bears do go the Gaines route, they can forget about trying to stash Davis on the practice squad, he'll be picked up before he walks out of Halas Hall.

One last aspect to the TE position battle is Greg Olsen being named starter before the players broke a sweat on training camp. Not much of a battle, now was it? Desmond Clark, the true pro that he is, took the demotion in stride, but I don't like the starters being named in the meeting rooms. I prefer them to battle it out between the lines and may the best man win the job. With as many double TE sets the Bears utilize Clark will still see plenty of action, but for a guy that has started 92 of his 94 career games as a Bear, I think showing him the respect of an actual position battle would have made more sense.

Poll

How do you see the Tight End Position Battle playing out?

Olsen, Clark, & Davis

364 votes

Olsen, Clark, & Gaines

77 votes

Olsen, Clark, Davis, & Gaines

203 votes

644 votes | Poll has closed

8/8 Training Camp Updates- Matt Bryant back, others out.

Niko Houllis — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 15:43:32 -0000

Tight End John Gilmore and Kicker Matt Bryant returned to practice Saturday morning (see, Matt Bryant must have seen my video below!!!), but a few other guys are out;

Jeremy Trueblood- Back

Derrick Ward- foot

Angelo Crowell- hamstring

Clifton Smith- hamstring

Michael Clayton- hamstring

Kelly Campbell- quad

Jeff Faine- groin

Joe Filani- hamstring

Greg Peterson- knee

What happened, was there a massive food fight at the movies, or did Clayton try to do an in movie GI Joe improv on somebody?

No word on how serious or not serious (which is more likely) these are.

What are they doing?

Red Zone Offense; as you know Raheem has called for a 60% success rate. Luke McCown looks very well adjusted.
Ryan Simms gets good pressure in and looks good with his bulky size.
TD pass from Leftwich to Sammy Stroughter, as both continue to impress in camp
Today's practice NOT as up-tempo as yesterday
AB vs Aqib battles today are great. Barber took him on yesterday, but Ronde is sitting out mostly today.
Cadillac shows NO SIGN of ever having had an injury.....EVER! Sharp Cuts!
Another HUGE CROWD- 1010am sports host during the week complained of fan apathy because of confusing stats on opening practice. I tried to explain to him...maybe he gets it now.
Seems as if the Bucs are doing a lot of special teams stuff to make up for the time they lost yesterday which was scheduled to be a special teams practice.
Expect more 2 minute stuff later at the 4:50 practice.

Start the countdown Bucs Fans!! This is the last week without Bucs football. Get your fix tonight with the Hall of Fame game.

Mini-Camp comes to an end, Morris discusses fight and progress

JScott — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 15:44:22 -0000

Wednesday’s Final Mini-Camp Practice got a little heated. One of the Four Horsemen, TE John Gilmore, got in a fight with a back-up Defensive Lineman (why we don’t have the player’s name is beyond me). Here’s Head Coach Raheem Morris on the fight:

"We had a lot of energy. Anytime you invite the media to the practice you get a fight. It is always fun to get some extra juices [flowing]. You guys (the media) become the crowd. You become the fans. Nobody wants to look bad on TV. I always tell them however [the way] you finish at the end of this practice is what they are going to write about until training camp, so nobody wants to look bad. The fight was perfect timing. It was the last play of a period. It happened real quick. Everybody got up and practice went on. We moved on. We didn’t encourage it and we don’t want it obviously, but it happens. These guys are highly-tempered dudes. They want to win in front of the cameras." - Head Coach Raheem Morris per the Pewter Report

How do you pick a fight with one of the four horsemen? He’s lucky Gilmore didn’t sic his posse on him… This could be a bad omen for the un-named defensive lineman. Remember last season when 7th Round Draft Pick, RB Cory Boyd, got in a fight with 1st Round Draft Pick CB Aqib Talib at the NFL’s Rookie symposium? Who’s still on the roster? Just saying, ha!

For those of you worried about the players that didn’t show up (or partially participated) to this week’s three day mini-camp, Raheem puts your worries to rest:

"A lot of them had previous engagements for the most part, I’ve talked to everybody. I’ve excused everybody that needed to be. You don’t really have to excuse them but they just come to me as a general courtesy to be honest with you. We had a great turnout. A lot of the guys came. I’ve seen most of them, most of them have been here working hard, we had live enthusiastic practices and that is what you want." - Head Coach Raheem Morris per the Pewter Report

In case you forgot here is the laundry list of those who did not attend or partially participated: CB Ronde Barber (partially), TE Kellen Winslow (partially), DE Stylez G. White (partially), LT Donald Penn (never attended), C Jeff Faine (partially), RB Cadillac Williams (partially), CB Torrie Cox (partially), and LB Angelo Crowell (partially).

Four Horsemen: Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers look to trade a Tight End?

JScott — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 12:16:50 -0000

The Four Horsemen! With the addition of Kellen Winslow via trade (2009 2nd Round & 2010 5th Round Draft Picks) and the re-signing of Jerramy Stevens, the Buccaneers are fairly set at the tight end position with four bodies. The other two rounding out the quartet are Alex Smith and John Gilmore. Any other franchise in the league would avoid stock piling Tight Ends, but with the Bucs it’s to be expected considering their past Quarterback infatuations. Will the Bucs enter the regular season with Four Tight Ends? I’m not so sure, let’s look at the possibilities:

Scenario #1: Trade one of the following: John Gilmore or Alex Smith. We all know Kellen Winslow and Jerramy Stevens are pass catching tight ends. Alex Smith is a solid blocker, but he’s not on the same level as Gilmore who specializes in it. When looking to acquire a Tight End I would venture to say that a pass catching tight end would fetch more in return than a blocking tight end and so Alex Smith makes the most sense to ship out. Especially considering we don’t need three pass catching tight ends.

What is Alex Smith worth? In 2005 the Bucs spent a 3rd Round Draft Pick to nab him. It’s fair to say he’s been moderately effective averaging 30 receptions, over 300 yards receiving, and 2 touchdowns a season in his four years with the Bucs. He’s always been on the cusp of having a breakout season, but for whatever reason his breakout never materializes. With that it’s tough to gauge his worth, as a Tight End like Kellen Winslow who has a serious injury history and averages twice as many receptions and yardage as Smith warranted a 2nd and 5th round Draft Pick from the Bucs. I think we all agree we overpaid for Kellen, but the bar has been set. At this point I would be comfortable with receiving a 4th Round Draft Pick for Alex Smith. ~~We could probably get a 3rd Round Draft Pick if we traded with ourselves, that would be counterproductive though.~~

Scenario #2: We retain all of our tight ends. It’s a crazy idea I know, but in the NFL where injuries run rampant and we have Kellen Winslow who is susceptible to injury at any time, it may not be a bad idea to hold on to all four of our guys. Plus think of the mismatches they could present. You have to think Kellen will be used more as a wideout than a traditional tight end. Using a two tight end set with Stevens, Winslow, and Bryant on the field would be challenging for any defense to defend. It would be up to Jags to shake up the formations so defenses don’t see Gilmore on the field and automatically think run. Although with Gilmore and one of Smith, Stevens, or Winslow on the field the defense still has to respect the pass and prepare for the run. With four tight ends we have plenty of players to spread the 60+ catches releasing Galloway and Hilliard opened up.

Conclusion: If I had to bet I would expect this team to carry three Tight Ends into the regular season, meaning somebody will be traded/released. It doesn’t make much sense to have six roster spots going to kickers and tight ends on a team that suffered last season with depth issues and for a team that is currently fielding unknowns at key positions on defense (LB, DL, and DB). What do you think, field the four horseman come the regular season? Have a battle in Camp or attempt to get value now out of one of them via trade?

Poll

What should the Bucs do with the Four Tight Ends they have on their roster?

Four Horsemen? I like it, keep 'em all!

73 votes

Definitely Trade one and get some Draft Picks

249 votes

Four Tight Ends?! Four Tight Ends!? Figures

42 votes

When does the NFL Draft start?

20 votes

384 votes | Poll has closed

Could the Bucs be Bringing Jerramy Stevens Back?

The Bull Gator — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 19:32:32 -0000

Despite the recent acquisition of Kellen Winslow, the Bucs may be close to resigning tight end Jerramy Stevens. Although many aren't fans of his past transgressions, Stevens seemed to keep his nose relatively clean while with the Bucs and managed to be together a decent 2008 season for Tampa Bay.

However, if he returns, the tight end situation would get interesting. Surely it would mean the end for either Alex Smith or John Gilmore, as the Bucs are highly unlikely to carry four tight ends on the roster. I, for one, was just warming up to the idea of a group including Winslow, Smith, and Gilmore. If Stevens comes back, does this mean we'll see Winslow split out more? Maybe. Time will tell.