SB Nation - Kyle Orton

Broncos Thoughts and Musings - Fish in a Barrel

Emmett Smith — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 16:30:18 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

3 days ago: Oakland Raiders wide receiver Chaz Schilens runs past Denver Broncos' D.J. Williams (55) for the game-tying touchdown on a 10-yard pass reception in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Denver on Sunday, Dec. 20, 2009. The Raiders won 20-19. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

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I was musing over the vagaries of the Broncos' fall from grace on Sunday. Losing a second year in a row to the Raiders late in the season, at home, is about as unconscionable as anything I can imagine. It hurts on a deep level, and for a lot of reasons. Let's face it - when you can't stop JMR on one drive for the win, you shouldn't have won. Denver's loss was by far the most disappointing of the season.

Like the lists of player problems and mistakes that I've been making as I work through the film room material each week, the list of miscreants from this game was long. I don't tend to easily abandon hope and I generally can see the brighter side of things. There weren't a lot of things to celebrate this time. Most of the problems are just the same mistakes from the same offenders that I've seen each week. We have often won in spite of foolish errors. This time, we threw away a game that we could have and should have won.

And, it was the raiders. What part of 'getting up for a hated division rival' didn't the Broncos get? Finding the Broncos' mistakes during this game really is pretty much shooting fish in a barrel - you can hardly miss. So saying, I'm taking down the Remington pump-action 12-gauge and aiming at a few.

Short Yardage

Every Broncos fan is concerned about this. There is a factor here that Josh McDaniels talked about last week, though, and while I don't agree with him, it makes the situation pretty clear.

Our offensive line isn't getting any movement in the center on short yardage. That's unforgivable - if you have a 3rd-and-1 you should be making that play 9 out of 10 times, but that's not happening and it seems that over the course of this year, it probably won't.

It doesn't matter if we run Peyton Hillis, LaMont Jordan or Knowshon Moreno at the middle of the line. None of them has the power of levitation. They are being hit in the backfield or swarmed just as they come up to the line and in today's NFL, that spells disaster. People have talked, rightfully, about which players they would prefer toting the ball in those situations, but McDaniels was very clear about this. He said, in essence, that it's up to the offensive line to move the pile and that his approach isn't going to change on this today, tomorrow or next season. I can make a pretty good argument that this isn't in the best interest of the team, and I imagine that you can do the same, but as the Coach said, that's not the issue. The issue is that McD expects the line to get a push and create the opportunity of getting yardage even though they just flat out aren't doing it.

If you're going to tell me that recognizing this should lead to a change in approach, I'm with you. The problem is, he's not going to make that change. While I emphatically disagree with his perspective regarding making a change, I also understand why: the offensive line is the basis of the entire game. It is followed closely by the defensive line and the cornerbacks, in my own views (more about this later), but the O-line is the rock upon which a team is built. Ours is, to steal a metaphor, built on shifting sands. That's where most of the issues with the running game are coming from. It's not doing our passing game a lot of good, either.

I can say with certainty that Tyler Polumbus has struggled during each of our losses. I can say with equal certainty that the Broncos will be looking for other options at backup tackle following this season. The same likely goes for Russ Hochstein, who didn't have a very good game either after convincing me that he was stepping up, and for Casey Wiegmann, who may retire in a few weeks. That's 3/5 of the most important group to a building team that isn't playing well and that is A Very Bad Thing.

If you were irritated by the running game, I'm with you. If you think the issue is Moreno, we disagree. Oh, it's not that I hold him blameless; not by any stretch. He's learning a variation on the running back position that requires a very specific skill set and which he has not yet mastered. While we can argue about whether or not he should have learned it by now, the simple fact is that he hasn't. He had a poor day compared to recent games and I had hoped for better from him, but even so - he's not getting a lot of favors from the guys who are responsible for blocking, and that's never going to be good. I recall watching one of the best of all time, Walter 'Sweetness' Payton, running behind moderately bad O-lines for years. Walter was one of the best to ever play the game and he still suffered a lot of bad and/or negative plays because of the line. Moreno isn't, at this point, another Payton, and he's not able to make up for their problems - nor should we expect him to. We should expect him to show improvement over the season, and he has. He's also not there yet, and we should expect him to keep working hard until he is - and for a long time to come.

The defensive line - the defensive front 7, really - has been hit with a problem all their own, and it's not a new one, either. They once again started freelancing and ignoring gap discipline and control. The results were the same that they have been each time this happens - we were gashed for long running plays and missed opportunities for sacks and hurries. Mike Nolan commented on that after the game:

"There was a common thing from the standpoint of where it happened," Nolan said. "It happened on cutbacks - all but two of them. And it really just has to do with the responsibility to stay home ... We have to do a better job of maintaining our responsibility on the cutback. It was really just a case of us over-pursuing on the backside."

It was, of course. Does it concern me that we're making such fundamental errors this late in the season? Certainly. Did it surprise me when I looked over the game film? Not at all - after looking at just the stat lines, you could make a sizable bet about the cause. It is the same cause that has been behind the other breakdowns in the defense.

So, let's talk a little about the team. Should they be better? Should fans be happy that they've done as well as they have? Should fans feel concern? The answer to each of those questions is 'Yes'.

Referees

I tend to agree with Steve Nichols - the refs have a job that no one tends to like, and in general, I expect a blown call here and there. That doesn't excuse the game-long litany of missed, blown and made-up calls that went on on Sunday. Home team advantage? Who did Josh McDaniels irritate on the refs crew? Sheesh...

Some Sense from McDaniels

I was talking with some football friends about this and an issue came up that helped put things into a better perspective: Despite the difficulty of dealing with the loss to the raiders, we're pretty much where the more positive folks said that we'd be way back in training camp. Folks like many of the site members, darned few of the media, and Josh McDaniels himself.

It was during training camp that some pundit (thinking himself funny, I suspect) asked Josh about the team's Super Bowl chances. McDaniels didn't bat an eye. "We're not a Super Bowl team," he said calmly. At that time, listening to the tone, I didn't hear this as typical coach-speak. He thought for a brief moment and dismissed the notion as pointless. He should have. He inherited a bad team, did a very good job for a single offseason and has done what he can do with the players he has, but he knows the problems of the team far better than we do. He's more familiar with the players as he watches them practice, something that we don't get to experience.

It was close to that same time that someone talked to him about how the media was claiming that the Broncos were going to be losers over the course of the year. McDaniels stirred up the media by saying that he'd never been on a loser and didn't expect to start now. You know what? Even if we drop the last two, we can't have a losing season. A single victory gives us a 9-7 record. Do you recall what was said about that possible record when we dealt our own pick to Seattle and kept the Bears' pick? Things have changed, in that respect.

From where I sit, it looks like McDaniels came from a winning club, with both the right players and the right attitudes, and migrated from there to Denver. He inherited a club that wasn't ready to take on the playoffs - or the Ultahamma Grannies, for that matter. We will get there, but we aren't currently Super Bowl material. He could see that, and he was right. I'm sure that the difference was fairly stark. This is not a SB team, and it's a much better team than it was last year. However - until the offensive line is righted and the players who lose their wits easily are weeded out over time (just as a start), we are what we are - about the middle of the pack.

What has really changed?

The simple fact is, I loved Mike Shanahan's work - he was one of the best offensive coordinators of all time. But despite a brilliant start, he wasn't as good as a head coach over time, and he wasn't a great GM. He made player-personnel deals that still amaze and astound and not in good ways. He left the defense feeling like second-class citizens and by the time Pat Bowlen said 'Enough," Shanahan had built a club with a losing attitude. Josh McDaniels did what you can do in one offseason and I love the direction that the team is taking, but they didn't build Google in a day and this is going to take time - just as most folks said at the beginning of the year.

Lots of members made good points, back then. "He's young and inexperienced," some pointed out. "He will make some bad decisions based on his lack of experience." He has. Lots of good ones, too - more good than bad, to my way of thinking, but definitely lots of both. It's his first year as a head coach and he's still learning. Nothing new there. Is there an argument that he'll get less good with experience? I'd love to hear that one - actually, no, I wouldn't. Scratch that.

"They don't have the personnel," others noted. Those folks were right too, in degree. We recently just don't keep up with good teams and we can't stop a mediocre one on the wrong week. There are a lot of good reasons for that, too. We have a team that can only count on winning if they play a nearly faultless game because even with a lot of very smart personnel moves, we are in the first season of changing the team. And, we don't have enough players who are that good. We still have some locker room problems - and that's not going to change this year; but change it will, given what evidence we've seen since February.

For those who ask why we'd bother changing if this year will be around 8-8, 9-7, 10-6, there are some danged good reasons. If you look at last year, we were not just stagnating - we were falling down the rabbit hole. You can say that we still have a long way to go to get back to fully competitive and you'd be right, but it's just not rational to claim that we're no better off than we were in December of 2008. Here are a few reasons why:

1. The Broncos are actually building a team. We want to win games while we build one, and so far we've won more than we've lost. The long season is showing the cracks, imperfections and outright weaknesses that couldn't get dealt with in a single year. The more film other teams have on us, the more they take advantage of them. What, we were going to do this in one year? Most members expected the final 2009 record to be about the same, a little worse, or perhaps even a bit better than 2008. That's exactly where we are, too. There's a long list of things that are better, though. Start with pass coverage and move on from there.

2. The word 'defense' no longer refers solely to the person that represents one of our players in a trial. I don't miss the negative role models that Denver had become burdened with. I don't miss the ones like Maurice Clarett and I don't miss the Travis Henry's. I don't miss a revolving door at defensive coordinator - nor do I miss the lack of quality players that it has consistently represented. I don't believe that the defense is a second-class organization any longer, either. They aren't ready, in one jump, to handle playoff teams and playoff football, but that's a long way from where we were a year ago when we got some lucky breaks and still didn't make the playoffs. We actually have players to build on, a scheme that works when players play well and coaches who will have had a year with their better players - and some new better ones to replace the folks who couldn't keep their cool in the locker room this year.

3. McDaniels will improve. I didn't go into this season expecting him to be without his own difficulties. Did you? He's blown some calls and he's the first to make note of that. Folks are going to question his decisions on play calling - that goes with the job. Even so - do you deeply miss the play calling of Jeremy Bates? I don't. I think that McDaniels has more than earned a chance to show Denver and Broncos Country just how far he can go with a team that he builds, not inherits. Unless, of course, you miss Nate Webster, Jamie Winborn and Dewayne Robertson.

4. We have a lot of young players who make typical younger-player mistakes. Not all are rookies, either. Wesley Woodyard, for example, has had a roller-coaster season. He looks great one week and gets burned the next; sometimes that happens from quarter to quarter. I don't know if he's going to work out, but he's a very good prospect and a very good special-teams player, so you work with him. The best teams have extensive player development, and for us, that will take time. We need time to develop him, and that goes for Josh Barrett, Alphonso Smith, Darcel McBath, David Bruton , Richard Quinn, Spencer Larsen and a whole bunch of other players. Tony Carter showed last week that he's worth a long look. It's not all defense - Kenny McKinley contributed last game, Peyton Hillis may or may not have potential, Ryan Clady is still learning the game, Ryan Harris (who is one of our best) is hurt again, and Tyler Polumbus has been hit and miss (mostly miss). We've got a lot of players who need to develop and some that won't make it through the next training camp. That's okay, too - that's how you build. You develop the best that you can get each season and you let Brian Xanders do his thing on contracts. I hear a lot of things about what the Broncos will and won't do about money, but no one is ready to set out hard numbers yet. We're talking about things that are interesting, but right now, we don't have the knowledge to say we'll do this or we'll do that. One thing I can say? We will be developing players, replacing some with better players and continuing to coach up and develop the ones who do the best. It isn't a quick thing to do well, either.

5. We have needed a plan for years. Now we have one. Will that plan change and adapt? Of course. But even as much as I loved Mike Shanahan, every year was the same plan - claim that you're a player or two away, replace the defensive coordinator, move a bunch of defensive players around, pick up a lot of new (or old) street veterans and repeat the following offseason. Even the offense was troubled - the issue of not picking up short yardage wasn't a sudden thing, this year. It was the same last year. Management too often neglected the team for too long to demand perfection in a single year.

I get the fact that many people don't like McD's play calling. I don't see that as the same kind of problem that some do - I see a lot of problems, far worse problems, with execution. Do you feel that they should be further along? Probably so - and I do, too. But given what he had to start with, I really can't complain all that much. Should we progress next year too? Yes. If we don't, I'll be as irritated as anyone, but I can't sit here and claim that I thought that we'd be all ready by now, problems fixed and ready to hit the playoffs. I didn't. the challenges that each of us saw were real then, and they still are. That doesn't make them overwhelming - we're doing pretty well, just not as well as we'd like to. If the Broncos have the interior of the line improved over the offseason, a lot of things will come together. We could use a few upgrades at certain other positions, too. Like I said - this won't be quick, but at least it's finally started.

6. We're using our players far better. In one sense, this is an expansion of #1, but it's more than that. Do you recall the fuss made about Mario Haggan? His original acquisition was the Goodman's work (and he was well chosen), but his excellence of application is due to his own efforts, Josh McDaniels' and Mike Nolan's. Andre' Goodman has weaknesses, but his coverage is usually excellent. Renaldo Hill? He was a great steal and has been a team leader on the field. How about Bruton and McBath - did we choose well? When you look at who has been brought in and how they have done, we are far above average - finally! There are more changes to make. It will take time to fully use this principle of identifying and obtaining the best of who is available (and the 'best' is NOT necessarily the most expensive), but look at the start that we made this year.

7. We are getting takeaways. Yes, I'd love to see more, but they come when your coverage and rush are both there. On the other side of the ball, I don't listen to the school that claims that Orton should have more INTs - when did anyone keep that stat? However - do you recall how many TOs we didn't get last year? That's changed, in a big way. We're bringing in better players and they are playing a better scheme. It's a process - not an event.

8. Things take time. While this is unfortunate, it is essential. You don't rebuild the kind of disaster that we had a year ago in one offseason, especially when you look at the level of turnover and the issues of developing communication among the players. Top teams tend to congregate near the top of the league - and, they tend to have built the team through vision, coaching and acquisition. The Broncos have begun that process.

Look back at the reasons that were given by so many, guaranteeing failure in the short term. Some of the theories were overstated, but even then there were kernels of truth in many of them. Of course we're struggling. It's Year One of a major reorganization.

So, Why the Struggles?

Here's something that isn't a problem - the Broncos aren't struggling late in the season because they did so last year or any other year. They are struggling because they are installing new systems, bringing in new players and, yes, it does take more than one season. Belichick, first season with the Patriots? 5-11. Bill Walsh, first season with SF? 2-14. Chuck Noll, first season with the Steelers? 1-13. The list of folks who took over dysfunctional teams and did better than 9-7 in one season is a short one.

Mike Shanahan did a lot of great things for the Broncos and he's earned a place in history, but his last few years were circling the drain. Let's not blame the plumber who took the job of fixing the problems that were left behind. The problems aren't few and they aren't simple. They have little or nothing to do with whether or not you like a draft pick after less than one season, which is kind of silly anyway (If someone can find me a single example of a professional football coach, NFL level, who would agree that it's a good idea to judge a draft after less than a season, I'll apologize for calling this behavior silly. Yes, I do believe in civil and rational discourse, but not in listening to the same inaccurate renderings, over and over. I'm trying to be polite but still pointing out that it's absurd). The problems aren't about whether or not Peyton Hillis is playing well enough to replace LaMont Jordan or whether or not you hate Robert Ayers, Alphonso Smith or whoever. It isn't about whether you think Eddie Royal is being used right or if he's been discovered to have a tell that is costing him, because none of us knows that info anyway.

What it is about is whether or not you're willing to defenestrate yourself over the fact that it takes time to turn a program around. Only a fool would try to walk backwards into the future. Do you want to try doing so, while looking behind you at the things you aren't happy with? I've seen a lot of good football this season and some bad football, but I haven't seen a thing that convinced me that the program isn't going in the right direction.

A Dilly in Philly

The question of how the Broncos will play in Philadelphia is misleading. The real issue is, which Broncos will show up? The guys who stopped Dallas and New England in the 4th quarter or the guys who laid down for JaMarcus Russell? The coaches get a lot of flack if the players don't execute, but that's often not their issue - especially if they're still playing with some leftovers who laid down for the last management team. The Broncos do have the players to win this game, even on the road in Philly.

They don't however, have the players who can make a batch of mistakes whenever we get close to scoring or stopping the other team and still win. Maybe the Colts can do that, this year. Even the Saints found out that they can't play that game without losing at it sooner or later. One consistent? The two games that Tyler Polumbus and Russ Hochstein played well recently, we won. The defense needs to step up as well and quite over-pursuing on the backside, but we have had the ability to outscore other teams. We haven't always used it - we're still leaving points on the field. Those (including Tom Brady, who knows a bit about this) who noted that the system takes a couple of years to implement were also right.

It's a multiple-timezone trip to the East, and that's rarely good news for Denver. Week 1 saw us eking out a win in Cincinnati. We haven't managed to play well for our East Coast wins. But, that doesn't mean that we can't win this game. It isn't the kind of challenge that Indianapolis is, but it's a big one, even so. We are still, hard as it is to believe, in the playoff hunt. This game matters a a lot, on that level. Since I don't see us going deep into the playoffs, I'm not as concerned with whether we win as how we approach playing this one. Having had the game moved to the later time slot on Sunday afternoon is an advantage - Let's hope that the Broncos make the best use of it!

Last Thought

Even after dissecting the dissonance from Sunday, there are far worse things in the sports world than being 8-6 going into Philly. I'd like to offer two examples.

In the first, we have only to look back on our NFL record-setting collapse at the end of last season. We dropped a similar game last week and it's easy to consider the two seasons in similar fashion - but to be honest, that's a pretty extensive exaggeration. Among the things that we didn't do this year are to give away the ball constantly. We also have actually recovered some, even though we didn't do enough on Sunday. Even so, both are improvements. So are our players and coaches. They're not perfect yet? I agree. They're not better than Slowik and Bates? Of course they are. And, there are worse fates. Just ask Steve Rosenbloom at the Chicago Tribune:

How bad could it be? Look carefully at the Chicago Bears defense. We'll talk about Cutler's donation to our draft pick's status in a moment, but think about this:

"There will be the usual griping about the Cover-2 defense today. But the Bears played hardly any of it Sunday. Really, they haven't played it much all year. And they didn't play a lot of it last year.

The Bears play a lot of two-deep safeties only when they get opponents in long down and distances. And they haven't been able to do that much lately.

"The defense has evolved away from the (Cover-2)," Cameron said. "I had to change my whole mindset because I remembered going against Lovie (Smith) in St. Louis and playing all the (Cover-2). Looking at all of their games, I realized how committed they are to playing single coverage on the outside."

See, it's really not about the scheme at this point. It's not even about the players.

This is what bankruptcy looks like. There simply is nothing left."

At the Broncos' worst, they aren't close to this. We no longer leave a standard Cover-1 shell, even though our rushing defense was inexcusable against Oakland. Chicago has done exactly what Mike Shanahan and Bob Slowik combined to do - ignore the modern usage of the safety position and invite completions on the outside, balanced by leaving large openings to run through. Baltimore was appropriately grateful for both invitations, exactly as they should have been, and the rout was on.

Not only did Jay Cutler throw his 23rd, 24th and 25th INTs, while notching not a single TD (19/25 for the season, for those who hate Kyle Orton today) and not only did he manage a vile 7.9 QB rating, his backup (C. Hanie) threw for a lousy 8.3 QB rating and still out-performed Jay.

You thought the Broncos game was discouraging? There is a line of folks paying good money to jump off the former Sears Tower rather than watch Chicago take on Minnesota next week. One of the Baltimore writers summed it up well:

Baltimore Sun sportswriter Kevin Van Valkenburg, in his "Five Things We Learned" from the Ravens' victory, notes Fox analyst Brian Billick's comparison of Jay Cutler to Jeff George and takes it one step further: He speculates that Cutler might be the secret spawn of the former Colts quarterback. "They're both from Indiana, and both strong-armed, knuckle-headed, franchise-killing quarterbacks," Van Valkenburg writes. "Cutler is either the worst good quarterback of his generation, or the best bad quarterback of his generation, just like George. The resemblance has become too much to ignore. At this point, all he needs is a mustache."

Steve Rosenbloom had a number of good lines this week (which is also very much like shooting fish in a barrel, but it's still a living for him). This one was a great short summary, though:

"Cutler's first interception was a pass forced to Devin Aromashodu, a bad decision that has become the house special. But hey, at least it took him four plays before throwing a pick."

Well, at least he didn't make anyone wait long to see how the day was going to go ;-). It's a cheap grin, but it beats weeping over the Broncos season. Rosenbloom's headline of the season may have been:

Holiday special: Order your Jay Cutler No. 7.9 jersey and get three INTs thrown in for free!

In the second possibility I've referred to, we could still have Jay Cutler and a few less draft picks. I couldn't guess who we would and would not have, since the decisions in the draft were dependent on those 5 picks between 1-90, but I'd hate to see this team without David Bruton, Darcel McBath or Knowshon Moreno. I know - Moreno is having some rookie problems, but he's also a very good RB with a bright future. About a year ago, I wrote an article on the problems of teaching a running back the Broncos' rushing system. It's one of the toughest to learn, since much of it is counterintuitive. That means that I'm far from being deeply concerned with Moreno, who still leads all rookies in rushing yards.

But let's face something head-on: Jay Cutler is doing a Jeff George imitation that out-rivals Jeff George. He's helpfully starting games by tossing an INT or two just to let everyone know what kind of game it will be. His line is weak and his receivers less than optimal, but you just can't blame anyone but Jay for his increasing ability to create completions with players in various and different uniforms. There's just something so, I don't know, egalitarian about that. On one level you have to admire his generosity of spirit, in the best trends of the holidays.

Folks in Denver didn't think that Jay had a lot of giving in his nature, and I'm glad that we've put that lie to rest. While some, like the male population of Illinois, might bicker about just who he's completing passes to, you have to give him credit for two things. First, he completes a lot of passes, and secondly, he obviously believes far more in sharing the ball than anyone could have suspected last winter. I wanted to take this opportunity to thank him for his dedication to those principles. He's also done everything in his power to protect the Broncos' investment in Chicago's draft pick. How can you describe such a man as petty, mean-spirited or self-serving? Considering all that he's been serving up, I think that we owe him an apology. Sorry, Jay. I guess that I had no real idea just how much you liked the Broncos. But as things have played out, I appreciate you more than I did since the day Mike Shanahan and Company drafted you. Your actions have been a much needed ray of joy in an otherwise bleak and dismal week.

Just keep it up for two more games, Jay. That's all I want for Christmas. Happy Holidays to all!

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 15

TJ Johnson — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 16:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Kyle: Can I be Mr. Orange? Josh: Do your job. Convert this 3rd-and-2!

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"You stats shouldn't play so rough. Somebody's gonna start crying."

--Mr. Blonde

Some teams bark all day, little doggy. And some teams bite.

Week 15 was supposed to be an easy caper for the playoff-bound teams in the NFL. Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Indianapolis were all looking to get in, do their job, and get out--unscathed and without too much gun play. Only two of these teams (Philly and Indy) actually escaped with a win.

As usually happens when jobs get botched, the better team isn't done-in by the play of the other team. No, that's rarely how it happens. Usually it's an inside job.

This was certainly the case with your Denver Broncos. While the Oakland Raiders showed they had some ammunition, it was the Broncos that turned on themselves. The Broncos were too careless (missed tackles, bad angles, and missed blocks). They were too cute (a pass to Ryan Clady and a QB sneak on 2nd down). And in the end, there they were - wounded from field goals and gashed from the running game, while JaMarcus Russell walked away with the cash.

Welcome to another week of The Stats That Don't Lie, your weekly rendezvous where we pick our statistical aliases. These are the stats that don't believe in tipping. They are the stats that don't talk, no matter how much you torture them. As always they are Turnovers, Field Position, Time of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

This week's edition is real special, too, and not just because I'm making Reservoir Dogs references. It's because I'm finally going to exhaust Denver's 3rd-down woes. (Note: I tried to link all references for Broncos fans born after 1990).

The Big Picture & 3rd Downs

Usually I put up a graph each week expounding upon the turnover margin in Denver's win/loss. This week, Denver won the turnover battle and lost the game, so it's a good time to look at what has been another key area for Denver (we´ll deal with turnovers shortly). It´s no secret that Denver has struggled on 3rd downs. But just how bad has it been? Not as bad as taking one to the gut, but let´s take a look:

The blue line is the league-average per game since the Broncos' bye week. It has ranged from 37.13% to 37.79%. This is normal. The league average usually runs between 37% and 38%. The orange line is Denver's 3rd-down percentage per game through the bye week as well. In Denver's last 8 games, they've manage to best this league average but one time. In 3 of the 8 games, they didn't even hit 30%. As you'll see in the rankings, they are averaging a paltry 34.53% per game.

Clearly, this is a huge problem. Consider the 15-week average per game of the playoff teams if the season were to end today, in addition to the four biggest threats to Denver's wild-card spot.

Indianapolis: 51.61%
San Diego: 41.81%
New England: 42.45%
Cincinnati: 41.71%
Baltimore: 40.08%
Denver: 34.53%
Jacksonville: 43.08%
PIttsburgh: 39.11%
Miami: 47.10%
Tennessee: 40.00%

Someone on this list doesn't have a cool-sounding 3rd-down rate, and we are not talking about the Colts. Even though the Broncos are within one standard deviation (about 6%) from the mean of 37.71%, the Broncos are fortunate that their defense has produced some timely turnovers this year. One might even wonder how a team with such a bad 3rd-down percentage is in the position of making the playoffs. For now, let's chalk it up to orange-and-blue leprechauns and move on.

3rd Downs - Hooked On a Feeling

The real question is, "Why have the Broncos done so poorly on 3rd downs all year long?" Stats can only do so much of the heavy lifting, but we'll give it a shot, anyway.

Many have postulated that it's the offensive line, the play calling, or Knowshon Moreno himself. Some view Peyton Hillis as the bionic man. Perhaps he should be getting more carries. Or some want to blame a certain bad ass with the finest neck beard this side of the Mississippi. I'm hearing none of it.

I have a different theory. It's less complex. And it doesn't require pointing fingers.

Simply, it's this team's first experience with "Erhardt-Perkins" offense. As Tom Brady has repeatedly alluded, getting used to this complex offensive system, installed with the Patriots by Charlie Weis, takes at least two years to get used to, if not more. But let's not take Brady's word for it, let's look at the numbers.

We simply need to go back to the 2000 Patriots, when Weis installed the offense and look at the Patriots' 3rd-down conversion rate between 2000 and 2001. In 2000, the Patriots were 35% on 3rd downs. In 2001, that number jumped 6% to 41%. Now, there is one big difference between 2000 and 2001. And that's Tom Brady at quarterback. But it was his second year in the system, and I don't believe Brady's numbers would have been the same had he had that first year as a rookie to learn Weis's system.

The Football Outsiders, who many stats geeks worship like I do Pam Grier, would agree. They've had a theory going about 3rd downs for several years:

Teams which are strong on first and second down, but weak on third down, will tend to improve the following year...over time, a team will play as well in those situations as it does in other situations, which will bring the overall offense or defense in line with the offense and defense on first and second down.

This year Denver has rushed for 977 yards on 1st down, good for 4th-best in the league in that category. Here is the precise breakdown on 1st and 2nd downs when compared to 3rd down:

1st Down-Average Running Play: 4.2 yards; Average Passing Play: 7.02 yards
2nd Down-Average Running Play: 4.71 yards; Average Passing Play: 5.99 yards
3rd Down-Average Running Play: 2.62 yards; Average Passing Play: 5.19 yards

Your eyes do not deceive you. On 3rd down, Denver struggles. If the Football Outsiders' theory is correct (it has been over the last 7 years) and history repeats itself with the Broncos' learning curve with respect to the "Erhardt-Perkins" system, we are looking at a team next year which is poised to improve drastically in 3rd-down efficiency. Take it to the bank.

Stuck in the Middle With You on 3rd-and-Short

Since we are beating the 3rd-down horse, it's also useful to bring up the play calling on 3rd and short. A lot of fans have been lamenting the Broncos' struggle on 3rd and short and hoping the team would pass more often. While this is completely understandable, just know that the percentages actually favor running in these situations--by a good margin. Once again, I present to you one of the little gems from the Football Outsiders:

On average, passing will always gain more yardage than running, with one very important exception: when a team is just one or two yards away from a new set of downs or the goal line. On third-and-1, a run will convert for a new set of downs 36 percent more often than a pass. Expand that to all third or fourth downs with 1-2 yards to go, and the run is successful 40 percent more often. With these percentages, the possibility of a long gain with a pass is not worth the tradeoff of an incomplete that kills a drive...

...Teams pass roughly 60 percent of the time on third-and-2 even though runs in that situation convert 20 percent more often than passes. They pass 68 percent of the time on fourth-and-2 even though runs in that situation convert twice as often as passes.

As bad as Denver has been in short-yardage situations this year on 3rd and 4th down, it's still not swimming upstream against these percentages. And if you don't think McDaniels knows the percentages, you are fooling yourself. Still want more proof? Consider that on 3rd-and-3 (or less):

Kyle Orton is 7 out of 15 passing (54%)

Knowshon Moreno is 10 out of 15 rushing (67%)

Moreno just happens to be converting on 3rd-and-3 (or less) about 24% more often than when Orton throws in the same situation. This is slightly higher than the Football Outsiders would estimate, but we are dealing with a relatively small sample size. However, the point is still valid. McDaniels is generally making the right call when he continues to run the ball on third and short.

For those that believe Peyton Hillis is Charles Bronson, ask yourself if he could have done any better than 10 out of 15? If you can look yourself in the mirror with any seriousness and answer, "yes," than we'll just have to act like professionals. Maurice Jones-Drew has picked up 17 out of 22 (77%), so you'd be putting Hillis in that kind of company. Given that Hillis has only averaged 3.4 in his 5 carries this year up the middle, I'm skeptical. Moreno has had 62 carries up the middle and averages 3.7.

The Offensive Line - Hold It...A Little Big Longer

If you want to point to the offensive line and losing Ryan Harris, then we've got some common ground. This loss is a lot bigger problem than McDaniels would like you to believe. Here is what Denver was averaging per carry on the ground (pre-Oakland) through 14 weeks:

Left End Left Tackle Left Guard Middle Left Middle Right Right Guard Right Tackle Right End

4.2 4.6 5.2 3.6 3.4 4.4 5.5 4.7

If you were scouting the Broncos and you saw these numbers, it would become clear to you very quickly that the strength of this offensive line was on the right side of the ball in general and on the outside edges--at least with respect to running. It's even clearer when you look at the right-end runs and left-end runs, because Daniel Graham is shifting in the formation and these numbers are directly related to him. If the left side of the line were as good as the right, you would expect the numbers on the right-end to be similar to those on the left-end. This isn't a knock on Ryan Clady--far from it if you look at the numbers off left tackle. It's simply a recognition of the importance of Ryan Harris (and also Polumbus, who has played well in the running game).

This is data a casual fan comprehends, but it is also backed up by a short-yardage asssessment as in BShrout's impressive analysis here. In addition, it's backed up by slightly more complex statistics as well, as witnessed by Jeremy Bolander's excellent post last week, in which he applies Sharpe Ratios to running plays behind each of Denver's offensive linemen. Bolander cleverly noted the reward gained (represented by the standard deviation) in-and-above a "safe" play of a zero yard gain:

...the ratios for running behind Weigmann, Hochstein/Hamilton are generally quite poor, at 0.14 and -0.18. Clady is better, clocking in at .300375 while Kuper dominates in short yardage at 1.78885. Too often, however, the one cut has been designed to bend back away from Kuper's stellar blocking. When the blocking scheme is more straight ahead, we seem to take advantage of his side more.

This certainly correlates to a general strategy of Denver being more effective when running to the right side.

When taken as a whole, all of this would suggest that Denver is going to continue to struggle a bit on 3rd downs. The quarterbacks and receivers continue to learn the complex "Erhardt-Perkins" scheme, and the absence of Harris and the play of the offensive line, while it hasn't been horrendous, has shown consistency issues. As other teams continue their run slants, rush blitzes, and stacking the line of scrimmage, (as both the Raiders and Colts did), look for McDaniels to counter with strategies like play action.

Team Rankings:

Here's where the Broncos stack up against the rest of the league after Week 15. As always, remember these are averages/game (in my mind a better measure than aggregate numbers):

While Denver continues its spiral on 3rd downs (the St. Louis Rams rank just below them), they still rank high in both giveaways (which I consistently label "turnovers") and turnover margin per game. Don't turn the ball over. Play good defense, capitalize on the mistakes of the other team. This was, is, and will continue to be their ticket to winning.

Given Denver's ranking in average starting field position (28.98-yard line) per game, I was pleasantly surprised in the Oakland game to see Kenny McKinley back returning. I thought he showed a great burst and quickness that will only get better. Although I had been clamoring for Alphonso Smith, I'll take what I can get. I was never sold that Eddie Royal was the longterm answer. Not because he wasn't capable, but because we'll never see another Tim Brown in this league. I think letting Royal be a receiver is the right move. And, outside of the San Diego game, the numbers weren't eye-popping (23.9 yards/kick). Royal was being asked to do too many things. When you've got jokers to your left and Raiders to the right, you need a guy who is focused on returns and rested between each series.

There's not much to say about Denver's time of possession other than they are sitting right at the league average.

From the rankings above, one team you must absolutely love is the Green Bay Packers, even after their loss to the Steelers in Week 15. I know, I know, the Steelers threw the ball all over the yard on them. But Aaron Rodgers is as underrated as Jay Cutler is overrated. They rank 1st in turnover margin, 2nd in giveaways, 1st in field position, 4th in time of possession, and 5th in 3rd-down efficiency. While the Packers are no Foxy Brown, they are still a whole lot of playoff team. I continue to think that the Packers can play with the Saints and Vikings, and I would personally love to see Rodgers send Favre back to retirement. If that makes me a Favre hater, then okay, but I prefer to think of it more like I am a hater of the Mainstream Media crush that exists for so-called "gunslingers." I mean, it's not like the the guy is taking anyone on a magic carpet ride with his arm this year anyway.

The teams that are the most dangerous from these rankings are the teams that rank high in both turnover margin and 3rd-down efficiency, because once the playoffs start, you need a team that at once doesn't make errors and which capitalizes on errors. And a team that can "make plays," which is just code for converting on 3rd downs. Right now, I would say this list includes, in no particular order:

Indianapolis
San Diego
Green Bay
Minnesota
New Orleans
New England
Cincinnati

Each of these teams is in the top ten in both categories, although the Chargers seem to have the most momentum of the whole bunch, as much as it pains me to say it.

Last week a few of you pointed out that perhaps I should finally let up on Jay Cutler as he continues his assault on history. I thought about it for one Sunday, but before I could say "Like a Virgin," "True Blue," or "Borderline," Culter had thrown 25 picks for the year. T his is the most in NFL history for a non-rookie quarterback in his first year with a new team. That's a strange stat indeed. Suffice to say the guy is to interceptions as a Tarantino movie is to F-Bombs. You lose count 20 minutes in.

Imagine how bad it would be if the Bears didn't rank 5th in average starting field position. Actually, it might have worked out better for the Bears if they didn't rank so high because then Cutler wouldn't begin so close to the red zone.

Week 15 - The Games

Let's start where we always begin, with the Broncos-Raiders game Since I was a big advocate two days ago of simply forgetting the game, I won't say too much, except that given the Raiders turned the ball over twice, it would appear that Denver would have won this game. But, if you read these ramblings columns on a weekly basis, you know I am a big "context" guy. Yes, turnovers are bad. Yes, if you are plus-1 in turnover margin, the stats say you'll win about 70% of the time. Get to plus-2 and you're at 80%. Yes, all of this is true. However, you also know that turnovers committed early in a game can be overcome--even by a decade of washed-up first-round draft picks known as the Oakland Raiders. Oakland committed one of its turnovers on its 2nd drive (1st quarter) and the other on its 8th (3rd quarter). But they had 12 drives in the game with which to work.

And what did Denver do with these two turnovers? They put up 10 points off of them. And yet they still did not win. This is what happens when you crawl around at 26% on 3rd downs. Not even Lee Marvin could get you out of that one.

If you want another interesting stat that hasn't received any attention from the Denver game, it's the following: on Oakland's scoring drives, they ran the ball 13 times for a total of 94 yards. This represents an average of 7.2 yards per carry, which is almost what Oakland's average was for the entire game running the ball. But the standard deviation of this data set was 8.8 yards. This is my smarty-pants way of saying that the Raiders running game was feast or famine. They had a lot of 1- and 3-yard carries, but also several carries over 20 yards.

Everyone is commenting on the New Orleans-Dallas game, so I might as well throw in my two cents. New Orleans had 11 drives in the game. They committed turnovers on 3 of them. That left them with 8 drives. And the Cowboys got out to a big lead, so in the 2nd half they ran the ball effectively and killed the clock, which led to their domination of the time of possession. Did I mention that Drew Brees was 14% on 3rd down? Given that New Orleans is usually at 43% on 3rd downs, this was quite a feat. Dallas got pressure, and they got it with their front 4.

Two other games I briefly want to mention. First, the Jags-Indy game. Two weeks ago, I developed a profile of what a Colts loss would look like, based on their losses since 2005. In Week 15, the Jacksonville Jaguars almost matched that profile. They ran, and ran, and ran, rushing 34 times in the game. They tried their very best to keep Peyton Manning off the field. They matched the Colts step for step on 3rd down. And what happened? Oh, just a 93-yard kickoff return from the Colts for a touchdown. Manning lives to fight another day.

The second game I wanted to point out is the Eagles-Niners game - if for nothing else, to simply point out that San Francisco was 0% in 3rd-down efficiency. The Niners also turned the ball over 4 times. But somehow they avoided the blowout and made a game of it. They even managed an average of 5.9 yards per rush against the Eagles. The Eagles can be beaten.

The Summaries

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

7 teams had 0 turnovers. 5 won (71%); For the season, 67/87 (77%)
8 teams had 1 turnover. 4 won (50%); For the season, 75/129 (58%)
7 teams had 2 turnovers. 5 won (71%); For the season, 56/122 (46%)
6 teams had 3 turnovers. 2 won (33%); For the season, 22/67 (33%)
2 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 4/29 (14%)
2 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 0/14 (0%)

Week 15 - Big Picture

The team that won the turnover battle (removing ties) won 8 of 11 games played (73%)
5 games were tied in the turnover battle.
The team that won the time of possession battle won 11 of the 16 games played (69%).
The team that had better third-down efficiency won 13 of the 16 games played (81%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 7 of the 16 games played (44%).
There were 4 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In all 4, the same team won on the scoreboard (100%).
The winning teams this week averaged 1.25 turnovers, 31:32 in time of possession, 44.32% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 30.82-yard line.

Top 5 in Week 15:

Top 5 in giveaways: 7 Teams Tied with 0.
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.Carolina 2.Dallas 3.Jacksonville 4.Pittsburgh 5.Cleveland

Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.Giants 2.Indy 3.Jacksonville 4.Green Bay 5.Dallas/Saint Louis
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.Baltimore 2.Cleveland 3.Tampa Bay 4.Buffalo 5.Giants

Running Totals, Season (through 15 weeks):

224 games have been played this season
75.80% (or 141/186) were won by the team with less turnovers (removing ties)
38 games were tied in the turnover battle
66.52% with a better time of possession
68.75% by the team who won on 3rd down
69.64% by the team that won the field-position battle.

15-week League Averages:

15-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.71

15-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:10 (thanks to OT games)

15-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.79%

15-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.91-yard line

The Look Ahead

Looking ahead to Philadelphia, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd-Down Efficiency

Denver 1.36 30:03 29.98 34.53%

Philadelphia 1.36 28:20 31.17 37.90%

The teams are even on turnovers. The good news is that Philadelphia's time-of-possession stat tells you one important thing about this game. The Eagles are a passing team. This plays into Denver's strength. It's also encouraging that as a passing team, the Eagles' 3rd-down-conversion percentage isn't higher. This again bodes well for Denver, especially if Denver can shut down DeSean Jackson on special teams.

The traditional thinking is that home field advantage adds about 3 extra points of value. In this game, I'd also remove that off the top because this is a homecoming for Brian Dawkins. With the kind of love that city has for BDawk, you might as well add three points for the visitors. Dawkins is going to put the lime in the coconut and drink em both together after this win. Ramblers, start ramblin'.

Hail, Brian Dawkins!!

Last stat: 99.99% (percentage chance that they would let Brian Dawkins have the alias Mr. Black, without fighting).

Philadelphia Eagles opponents preview - Denver Broncos

JasonB — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 14:42:12 -0000

This is the next part in our series of previews of the Eagles 2009 opponents. Joining us for this feature is Dave Schwab, who writes about the Eagles at his site Eagles Lincs.

This week the Eagles welcome the Denver Broncos and a certain former Eagle great to town. Oh yes, I'm sure there will be a ton of Correll Buckhalter jerseys...

Check out Dave's full analysis after the jump.

The Eagles will welcome a familiar face back to town this Sunday when Brian Dawkins and his new team, the Denver Broncos square off in a 4:15 P.M. late start at the Linc. Philadelphia is coming off a big 27-13 win over San Francisco that raised their record to 10-4, clinching a spot in the playoffs. The Broncos, coming off a disappointing 20-19 loss to the Oakland Raiders find themselves fighting for a spot in the post season in the crowded AFC playoff picture. After starting the season 6-0, they have lost six out of their last eight games and find themselves needing wins in their last two games just to have a shot. With Minnesota losing to Carolina last Sunday night, the Eagles are still in the hunt for a possible 1^st round bye so they are in no position to try and coast through this game. Given all that is on the line for both teams, this game should have a playoff like atmosphere as well as all the drama associated with Dawkins return.

Much was made this off season about the Broncos trading QB Jay Cutler to Chicago for Kyle Orton. After 14 games, Denver got the better end of that deal as Orton has played much better than expected. So far this season he has completed over 60% of his passes for a total of 3182 yards and 17 TD’s. While these stats are impressive, most of that production came earlier in the season as he has struggled over the past several weeks. In his last eight games he has thrown eight TD’s and seven interceptions as Denver has only won twice in that stretch. RB Knowshon Moreno leads all rookies with 879 yards on 224 carries, but he has not gone over 100 yards once this season and has been held to less than 90 yards his last five games. Former Eagle, Correll Buckhalter has been a nice compliment to the offense rushing for 582 yards on 108 carries and could be primed for a big game against his old team. The real threat on this offense is WR Brandon Marshall. He is closing in on 1000 yards receiving and has 10 TD receptions on the year. The Eagle’s secondary will have to account for his whereabouts at all times to keep from giving up any big plays.

Defensively, much of the Bronco’s success can be attributed to the new attitude that Dawkins brought to this team. They are ranked 3^rd overall and 2^nd against the pass giving up less than 200 yards per game. He personally has 81 solo tackles and 19 assists, second highest on the team. Given his fiery nature, look for Dawkins to try and be a disruptive force all day long. The Eagles cannot afford to allow him make a game changing play as he did so many times when he was wearing the silver and green as he could single handedly change the momentum of the game.

The Eagles still have a great chance at not only winning the NFC East, but getting a much needed first round bye, but they have to win their last two games to do it. While Denver is not the team they were back in the first two months of the season, they are still good enough to come into the Linc and get a win. Philly must exploit the Broncos’ biggest weaknesses on defense; stopping the run. Once again look for a big dose of RB LeSean McCoy and FB Leonard Weaver to control the line of scrimmage and hopefully keep the offense out of too many third and long situations. Also keep an eye out for Brian Westbrook’s return to action which could help the cause. If they can effectively do this, they will control the tempo of this game as well as open the door for some big plays downfield. This strategy has worked the last five weeks so why change now.

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 13:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

3 days ago: Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels, right, talks to quarterback Kyle Orton during a break in the action during the third quarter of of an NFL football game against the Oakland Raiders in Denver on Sunday, Dec. 20, 2009. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

Browse more photos »

Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. I am writing this lead-in on Black Monday, and I'm still not in a very good mood, as you can imagine. I'm going to try to make the best of it, and drop a good column despite the bad feelings. We'll see, because I still haven't watched this infuriating game a second time yet. No guarantees. For now, let's get on with it. Ready..... BEGIN!!!!

1. So, I am not too thrilled, as you might imagine. I don't think anybody particularly is, but this game solidified a thought in my mind about the Broncos, that I've been close to, but never fully there this season. It kind of makes me feel like a fool actually, because way back, when I was the only credible analyst in the world predicting 11-5 for the Broncos, my main reason for thinking it is what I had wrong.

The Broncos offensive line is the weakness of the team, and I thought it was the strength. When I envisioned beating Baltimore and Pittsburgh, it was because I thought the Broncos would be able to block them. I've frequently observed the struggles of one guy or another, but the real conclusion we need to reach is that this group leaves a lot to be desired. Nice Thing to Say About Jay Cutler Alert: I think we all underestimated how much his quick release, mobility, and pocket awareness helped prevent sacks last year.

This year, they've given up sacks at key times, often when it's been obvious that they had to throw the ball. That has been the minor part of the problem. The major part is that they've struggled to drive-block all season, and lately, they've struggled to effectively zone-block, too. Russ Hochstein is terrible, and really hasn't been any kind of improvement over Ben Hamilton. Casey Wiegmann has regressed this year from his previously high standard and gets pushed backward too much. I haven't been too thrilled with the play of Chris Kuper over the last month either, and Tyler Polumbus has proven to be just a backup and special teams player.

I think this season turned when Ryan Harris got hurt. He's one of the best RTs in the NFL, and between he, Kuper, and often Daniel Graham, the Broncos had a good ability to open holes in the running game to the right, outside. Now, the Broncos get pushed backward too much, and are very susceptible to run blitzing against their zone schemes. In the short term, they can help themselves with plays like backside smoke screens off outside play action, inviting/exploiting the run blitzing. In the long term, though, they interior of the line badly needs to be upgraded, because the Broncos will always struggle against physical fronts if it doesn't.

Now, the Broncos do still control their own destiny, even after losing two in a row. They can beat Philadelphia too, if they can protect Kyle Orton, and run the ball effectively. I really think that the Eagles' tendencies toward throwing the ball a lot play to the Broncos' strength on defense. Like Kima Greggs said, sometime things gotta play hard. The Broncos wiped the field with the Giants, who are very similar to the Eagles, so let's not lose hope that they can do it again. Remember, every game is an independent event, and what happened last week is irrelevant to what may happen this week. Go Broncos!

2. Information From My Eyes, Raiders at Broncos-

a. This is kind of information from my ears, but I can't stand Gus Johnson. I know a lot of people like him, but to me, he sounds like he learned his technique from the WWE's Jim Ross (whose name I had to look up, in case you're wondering). Can't you just picture Gus wearing a cowboy hat and yelling "He hit him with a steel chair?!"

b. While I am dogging CBS announcer team guys, Steve Tasker sucks pretty bad, too. He lacks a command of the rules, and it just doesn't seem like he prepares very hard. He makes blanket statements like, "The Broncos have lost 5 of 7 since Kyle Orton's finger got healthy, and they started throwing more." No reasonable person in the world would blame those losses on Kyle Orton, but there goes Tasker, joining the Peter King train.

PK: In six of the past eight weeks, Kyle Orton hasn't put up more than 17 points on the board. Yikes.

It's like the rest of the team is just McNulty's breathing machine. Tasker played the game for a long time, as a spunky, high-effort, overrated special-teams gunner. He should know that a lot is going on on the field that has nothing to do with the QB, and he should be the first person making that point. Hell, there are people who think he belongs in the Hall of Fame (PK evidently being among them, unlike his take on Floyd Little). Tasker should be the "look at the little things" guy, and instead, just mostly stays quiet as Gus Johnson announces the next elbow drop from the top rope, only opening his mouth to mention correlations where there's no causation.

c. Mitch Berger's punt at the end of the first quarter may have been the ugliest in NFL history. It was just atrocious, for those who didn't see the game.

d. Casey Wiegmann had his worst game as a Bronco on Sunday, in my opinion. He was on roller skates all day, going backward. I appeciate the guy's durability and smarts, but I don't think the coaching staff will want to go into next season with him as the starter.

e. The officials let Chris Johnson get away with a clear pass-interference penalty on a key 3rd down in the 3rd quarter. He facegaurded Jabar Gaffney downfield, and rode him out of bounds with his body. Let Tasker tell it, it was a perfectly legal play. He didn't remember the 5-yard chuck rule, I guess. This play was egregious.

f. Andra Davis played great on Sunday, especially on the goal-line stand. He was all over the field all day, and made a bunch of plays.

g. Mario Henderson played better than I've ever seen him play for the Raiders, especially in the running game. He was downfield driving Broncos defenders backward. He also held up very well in pass protection, but was helped by Charlie Frye's focus on getting the ball out quickly.

h. Vonnie Holliday was very good in the pass-rushing game for the Broncos, and Robert Ayers had good moments, too. The only really good rush Elvis Dumervil had, he got called for roughing the passer.

i. Don't let me see anybody blaming Alphonso Smith for the winning TD. He was picked, clear as day, by #86 for the Raiders. In a poorly officiated game, it was another obvious penalty that wasn't called. It was offensive pass interference all the way, and he was out of position for the tackle, making it very difficult. It's true that Smith has struggled as the season has gone on, but that play wasn't his fault.

j. Finally, a word about JaMarcus Russell. He can make every throw a QB ever has to make. When he came into the game Sunday, I was actually worried about it, because he has much more physical ability than Charlie Frye. I'm not ready to say he turned a corner, but I'm sure he engendered some additional belief in his coaches and teammates than he'd been previously seeing. He got it done, given the circumstances, so all you can do is tip your hat to the guy.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games-

a. I continue not to care whether the Colts go 16-0, and I didn't get to see much of the game, due to a 10:30 PM ET conference call with some guys who work for me in Pune, India on Thursday. Ho hum, the Colts won.

I was all over the Cowboys beating the Saints, though, and I did watch that game. The Cowboys had to be tired of hearing all this stuff about how they can't win in December, and the Saints had been trying to give away a game for about a month. The Saints had a really hard time protecting Drew Brees, especially LT Jermon Bushrod. For the guy who shares a hometown with him, the jury is in for me. He's an RTO playing out of position on the left side. I think the Saints were too greedy, and didn't do enough to help him with DeMarcus Ware.

b. I made some Cowboys fan mad back in October when I proclaimed Anthony Spencer to be just a guy. Cowboys fans need to be told when their players aren't as good as the hype around them - because the hype is so strong, most of them believe it. Anyway, Spencer was fantastic on Saturday night. He was setting the edge in the running game, and he got Drew Brees 3 times, losing one to a questionable penalty in the secondary. It was the best I'd ever seen Spencer play in the NFL, and if he can keep playing like that, the Cowboys are suddenly really difficult to handle in the playoffs.

c. I was very impressed with Tony Romo's play Saturday, and it's nothing new lately. He's been playing terrific football, with 8 TDs and 0 interceptions in his last 4 games. Lazy, uninsightful MSM idiots who fixate on meaningless trends were falling over themselves to say that Romo couldn't win in December. To most of these people, the other 52 guys on a team are like garnish on the side of the plate. It's obscene how stupid that all is.

d. The Cowboys did the right thing, cutting the cord with Nick Folk. He's been terrible this season, and when you can't count on your kicker to make a 27-yard field goal, you have big problems. Of course, the guy they replaced him with, Shaun Suisham, lost his last job for missing a 20-something-yard FG against New Orleans, to put the game away, too. Kicker seems to be an issue for Dallas every year, and they really need to address it on a going-forward basis.

e. The Lions are still playing hard, I'm sure try to secure jobs for next season. They really gave Arizona a run for their money on Sunday, but came up short, to the disappointment of my buddy Chris Dillon, who was in attendance. I was pretty impressed with the play of Maurice Morris, but I've seen him flash like this a lot of times in his career, and then do nothing a week later. The guy I always like the look of is Drew Stanton, who was a second-round pick, but never got a chance to play for some reason. He had some good moments Sunday, and looked more useful than Daunte Culpepper.

f. The Cardinals can't be blowing double-figure leads if they want to get back to the Super Bowl. I was telling my brother the other day that I thought the NFC Champion would once again come down to Arizona against Philadelphia, but the Cardinals lacked crispness for a second week in a row. They'd do well to get their act together.

g. There were a lot of interesting things to see in the Cleveland-Kansas City game, which was surprising. I had no intention of paying any attention to it this weekend, but it ended up being the first game I watched when I got home Monday evening. First things, first. I've never been a big Jerome Harrison fan, but he obviously played out of his mind on Sunday for the Browns. I have seen a lot of him over the last few years, so I remain skeptical of him. Prior to Sunday, if I had to describe Harrison in a sentence this would have been it: "He's a third-down back who lacks much power, speed, or explosiveness, and shouldn't particularly scare anybody." I think his career day was equal parts the best day of his life and the significant inflation factor that comes from running against the Chiefs.

h. The Chiefs had to feel pretty good about most of their offense's performance Sunday. Matt Cassel looked outstanding, and was hurt by about 10 drops by his receivers. Dwayne Bowe was particularly feeling in touch with his inner dropsies. Maybe it was rust from his steroid vacation? Anyway, Cassel was a positive sign again, after a couple bad weeks, and the good things he did had the look of things that would work against good teams, too.

i. If you'd asked me six weeks ago about Jamaal Charles, I'd have questioned his size and power, and also his running instincts. I always saw him as a guy who missed creases and ran into tackles. The coaching he's presumably been getting seems to have clicked lately, because he's making tacklers miss more than I've ever seen. He looks really good running out of the shotgun, which he did a lot of in college at the University of Texas. He's not a bell-cow RB, but teams aren't looking for those so much anymore. He can be a very effective 50-50 tandem guy, especially if the Chiefs could find a Michael Bush-type player to complement him.

j. You know how you can look at somebody and tell when they seem to be physically uncomfortable? That's how Mark Sanchez looked to me on Sunday, in the cold of New York, kind of like a woman looks when she's constipated. I thought his ball traveled a bit better through the wind than it did a month or so ago, when he played in his first bad weather, but his clear lack of physical comfort worries me, and should worry the Jets. Sometimes, a guy who grew up in warm weather embraces the cold, and has success in it. Brett Favre immediately comes to mind. If Sanchez goes back to SoCal in the offseason to chill out, that will be a bad sign in my mind. He ought to stay in New York, and get used to the weather. You may think I am overstating this, but he's going to have to play a ton of games in the cold throughout his career if he's going to be a 10-year Jet.

k. The Shallow Thoughts fantasy team continues to save its best work for the playoffs in the Official MHR League, and was dominant Sunday, led by Aaron Rodgers' huge day. I'm now one game from a championship. Not bad for a guy who doesn't like fantasy football, and a team which was counting on Larry Johnson and Derrick Ward to be stud RBs. I've gotten solid work from both Laurence Maroney and Jason Snelling at times, which has helped. I thought of Snelling, because I have really come to like his game on the real field. He runs hard, catches the ball well, and picks up the blitz. He's a good backup to Michael Turner, and when they're both healthy, they can really alternate physically pounding a defense.

l. I'll tell you right now, Falcons FS Thomas DeCoud is going to be on the All-ST&NO Favorites team I'll be releasing next week. He ought to be in the Pro Bowl for the NFC, but that's almost certainly not going to happen. He's very mobile and smart, and he always is in great position. What sets him apart from other good safeties, though, is that he can catch the football, and he did once again on Sunday, with his third interception of the season. I like matchup safeties, and I'm a big fan of DeCoud, going back to the 2008 Draft.

m. Kerry Rhodes got benched recently, and he looks to me like he's playing with a lot more ferocity and toughness lately. Rex Ryan had him coming on a bunch of blitzes Sunday, and the Jets did a great job all day against the Atlanta offense. If they had gotten better play from Sanchez this season, the Jets would have run away with the AFC East, because that defense is real. Assuming Sanchez improves in the future, this is going to be a team to be reckoned with in the years ahead.

n. I said something nice about Jay Cutler earlier, and now I'm going to go into semi-apologist mode for him, ever so briefly. Neither of the first two interceptions he threw Sunday were really his fault. On the first, Devin Aromashadu failed to get across the face of Domonique Foxworth on a slant route, which is his job. That's 100% on the WR to execute, especially when the play called for Cutler to look right first, and come back left on time, semi-blindly. On the second pick, the RT failed to cut Jarret Johnson on a 3-step drop, and Johnson jumped up in the passing lane and made a play. I've made this point before recently, but on a 3-step drop, the DE must be cut to the ground to clear the passing lane, and the player (I think it was Kevin Shaffer, but couldn't tell for 100% sure) failed to execute. Cutler's third pick was on him, but it was a tough throw moving to his left. He threw that one right to Foxworth. If the Bears want to do a smart thing, they'll try to hire Jeremy Bates away from USC. I don't necessarily think Bates can coach Cutler out of his well-established bad habits, but he at least knows how to put him in position to be most successful.

o. It's so difficult to deal with the height of the Chargers WRs and Antonio Gates. I don't know if I really know the right answer for stopping them. I think you need to play physical with them, and try to cover them man-to-man, but that's easier said than done. It's got to be better than letting them run the sideline against cover-2 with no re-route from a CB, though. I think Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall did pretty well Sunday, and the Chargers still got the win when it counted. San Diego is overrated in some areas, but they're underrated at WR.

p. I'd be shocked if LaDainian Tomlinson is back with San Diego next season. He was obviously a great player for a long time, but he's noticeably not the same guy he used to be. When a RB starts to lose it, you can see it in his leg drive when somebody hits him. LDT is going down a lot easier than he ever did in the past. He's like Arizona Cardinals-era Emmitt Smith right now, despite having a much shorter career than Emmitt.

q. I really liked Mike Tomlin's reasoning behind his onside kick strategy Sunday. I'm taking this from Peter King's MMQB, as I'm not sure if these comments were said exclusively to him, or were something he picked up from the team's PR people.

"I'll be very bluntly honest with you, based on the way the game was going in the second half, first of all I thought with the element of surprise we had a chance to get it, but if we didn't get it and they were to score, then we would have necessary time on the clock to score or match their score. Plan A didn't work, we got the ball but we were illegal, that was the correct call, but it kind of unfolded the way you envisioned it.

"We had 30 minutes of evidence that we could drive the ball on them, we also conversely had 30 minutes of evidence to show they could also drive the ball on us. That's why we took the risk when we did. We were just trying to win the football game. There was time left in that game that had we kicked that ball away and the half had gone the way that it'd gone, they were converting third downs. They would have moved the ball down the field on us, we wouldn't have had necessary time to respond. I'm just being honest, but it starts with feeling pretty good about the element of surprise and having a good chance to get that ball, but that part of it didn't work out.''

That makes sense, right? Even if you don't get the ball, you're cutting down the amount of time the Packers will take to score, and leave your own team enough time to answer. I generally can't stand the Steelers or their highly-ignorant fan base, but I have Tomlin's back on this one. After all, it played out exactly like he thought it would, if they didn't recover the kick. Nothing proves you right like being right, right?

But then PK chimes in with his commentary:

How the mighty defense has fallen. Wow. Mike Tomlin throwing his D to the wolves.

Sigh. Like they say on ESPN, C'MON MAN! You know what you are if you trust a defense that hasn't gotten it done all day? You're a moron who deserves to lose. I really think that this is the most idiotic conventional wisdom in football, that you have to trust your defense, no matter what. The Steelers got sliced up all game, and didn't deserve to be trusted. Tomlin had the pulse of the game exactly right. Hell, if I am him, I want my defense to know that I don't trust them in that moment, and step it the hell up in practice, and in the next game. Trust is earned, not freely given.

r. Here's a news flash for Peter King. Bryant McKinnie is not a very good player, especially in pass protection. You should never judge the quality of an offensive lineman on whether they get voted to the Pro Bowl, or were picked in the first round of the draft. McKinnie is solid against the run, but he's slow-footed, and he struggles to protect against good pass rushers. Julius Peppers did dominate McKinnie Sunday night, but it's less of a special feat than PK would have you believe.

s. I think the Panthers might have something with Matt Moore. He's not the most polished player, but you can tell he has some real talent. I'm not basing that on his results, per se, but more on the way the ball leaves his hand and flies through the air. If I were John Fox, Jake Delhomme wouldn't see the field again this season unless Moore got hurt.

t. Don't worry about Brett Favre arguing with Brad Childress on the sidelines. It doesn't matter, and these things happen all the time. I don't think the Vikings quite have what it takes to win a championship, but it has nothing to do with Favre and Childress not seeing eye-to-eye in one game. I think the only good player on their offensive line is Steve Hutchinson, and the rest of them are average to below-average. I also think Adrian Peterson isn't playing very well lately, and I wonder if he's banged up, because I don't see the suddenness and power I am used to from him lately.

u. The Giants really got their defensive line going Monday night. I guess it helps to play the Redskins, who can't block anybody. I was pretty surprised by the bad play of the Redskins defense, which has been tough all year. This game was so lousy, I barely paid attention to it after the first half.

v. Why couldn't the Redskins have run THAT variation of the Hunter Smith pass against the Broncos? That was a charlie foxtrot from the start.

4. For a straight single man, I'm a pretty good dresser. I figure I'm average looking, and I could stand to drop a few pounds, so I try to help myself by making smart wardrobe decisions. I have some common sense rules, I favor versatility and have a good feel for matching, and I never, ever wear trendy, overpriced crap like Ed Hardy. I'd give myself a B-plus to an A-minus.

So I am watching the NFL Network pregame show Sunday, and I can't help but notice the gear of the well-known sartorialist Michael Irvin. He had a pretty bad suit, and I remembered a draft a few years ago, maybe 2006 or 2007, when Irvin was working for ESPN. My ex-wife walked in, and saw him, and she was all about fashion. He was wearing a brown suit, with a brown shirt, and Christine says, "He looks like a big piece of poop." I couldn't help but agree.

So, horrible suit back then, pretty bad suit Sunday, funny memory. Then, the crew took off their jackets to do a technique demonstration, and I saw the worst part of Mike's gear. His shirt had epaulets!!! (I generally hate multiple exclamation points, but epaulets make it appropriate.) If you were in the military, chances are you know what epaulets are - if not, check it out here, where they spell it differently than how I learned in the Navy.

Okay, Mike? Unless you're going to a Troop Meeting, and making Eagle Scout, no epaulets, okay? There's no good reason in the world for a normal man's shirt to have them. Just say no to pretentious clothing. I wouldn't be surprised if Ed Hardy toolbag-in-chief Christian Audigier designed Irvin's shirt, too. The orange oompa loompa spray tan would look weird on Irvin, so it would be hard to carry the complete look.

I bet those guys' shirts have epaulets. By the way, I got that pic from the coolest Facebook fan page ever.

5. So there's big news that I have to share. I am retiring ST&NO. Next week, on December 29^th, 2009 I will post my last one ever, at least as far as I am planning now. New Year, new ideas, new LASIK eye surgery on January 15^th, so I won't be nearsighted anymore. The title just wouldn't make sense anymore, and like Russell Jones, I keeps it real. I plan to move my work in a bit of a different direction in the next year, and beyond.

Since I started writing ST&NO last January, I've tried to make it league-wide. Some MHR people have expressed appreciation for that, and I think some would like my work better if it was all Broncos, all the time. It's gotten more and more league-wide in nature during the course of this regular season - at first, kind of by accident. Later, I started to realize that I wanted to position myself for a more national platform, and I've gone with it more intentionally. I thank John Bena for always letting me write whatever I want, as I've been able to drop stuff that makes me happy.

In the marketplace of ideas, there's been a lot of evolution in how fans get football information. It used to be, you could watch your local market game, the Cowboys (America's Team), and a West Coast game, and then whatever was on Monday night. Now, you can watch any game you want, if you're willing to pay $400 a season for the privilege. Twenty years ago, you had your local rag newspaper, picking up some AP reporting, and having a couple Woody Paige-style columnists. I remember sitting in the front hall of my mom's house every Monday morning, reading the recaps and poring through the box scores. Now, you can go on the internet and read whoever you want. It's a brave new world, that continues to change all the time, and a guy like me has to continually evaluate my best positioning in it.

When there were just the rags, the strong written content was at the micro (team) level, mostly because it was the only particular written content, outside of a multi-sport skimmer like Sports Illustrated or The Sporting News. With the wide proliferation of the internet in the mid-90s, your average Len Pasquarelli and John Clayton emerged at ESPN.com, and the Worldwide Leader threw a ton of resources at football, taking the quality back to the macro level. In the early to mid 00s, it became much easier for people with no access to players and coaches to get information, and also to self-publish. Web 2.0 gave some people with real talent the chance to take the quality back to the micro level, where it really belongs, to a large degree.

Well, I'm a macro kind of guy who has been working at a micro level. I actually have personal friends who've told me explicitly that they won't read ST&NO because it appears on a Broncos site. It's just too much for some people to get past. You'll remember the story about the "repugnant" guy/girl from a couple weeks ago. The person's biggest burn was:

If you were as brilliant and talented as you think you are you'd be doing something other than running a niche website no one other than diehard Broncos fans gives a damn about.

As I told the critic in my response, I am very, very proud of MHR. It's the best Broncos site in the world, and I'm really proud to have been part of its rise, and call myself a member/alumnus of the site. From John, to the staff, to the community, it's really incredible what we have here, and I will always support and promote it. I'm struggling a bit to cut to the chase, which is unlike me, but you can probably tell by now that I am announcing my departure from the MHR staff.

I've decided to launch my own football site, with a stated goal of bringing MHR-style quality to the macro level. I looked at trying to convince a lousy MSM site like CBSSports.com to pay me for running my content on their site, and even went so far as to ask a friend to make an inquiry on my behalf. I've backed away from this idea, however, as I read about Bill Simmons' frustrations with ESPN's penchant for censoring his work. Everybody knows that wouldn't work for me. I'm taking the Oprah approach, instead, and owning my own outlet. I'm pretty close to being ready to launch, but not quite close enough to share details yet. Tune into next week's triumphant ST&NO finale, and you can get all the information about it.

There's such widespread suckitude at the national level, that I feel like I have to step directly into their arena, loudly and with both feet, if I really want to go after them. I'm here to tell you, I've got something for Peter King, Mike Florio, Clayton, Pasquarelli, Don Banks, Pete Prisco, and all the rest of them. Let there be no ambiguity. I am in it to win it at the national level, and I'll be applying everything I learned here at MHR, and every other resource I can muster to help make it happen. Sound the horns, because it is most definitely on.

It's Tuesday morning as I write this last part, time to post ST&NO, head to the office, and do another call with Kuldeep and Suresh in India. Have a great week, friends, and I'll see you next Tuesday for the final edition of this column. The ST&NO concept will definitely live on at my new site, but I'll be excited to have each of you with me next week, as we close this chapter of the story, and start writing the next one. Thanks for being MHR community members, and for reading my work every week. This site is going to continue to be great, and I'm just hoping to expand the universe a little faster than the reputation of the Most Interesting Man in The World, for a change. Thanks in advance for your support. :)

Potent Quotables - Raiders 20 - Broncos 19

John Bena — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 02:20:20 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

3 days ago: Denver Broncos rookie running back Knowshon Moreno (27) runs with the ball around the corner as Oakland Raiders defensive tackle Tommy Kelly (93) defends in the third quarter of an NFL football game in Denver on Sunday, Dec. 20, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

View full size photo »

DENVER BRONCOS HEAD COACH JOSH MCDANIELS

General

"I give the Raiders credit. We knew coming in, it would be a good, tough-fought hard division game, similar to the first one. They certainly did more than we did at the line of scrimmage. They took advantage of the opportunities down low in the red zone, we struggled to do that. Any time you have to kick field goals in a game it's going to be close, it's going to be costly in the end. They made a few more plays than we did and I give the coach credit. And their staff, they did a nice job and had a good game plan and I give them credit, we have to go back to work."

On the Raiders running game

"They have good backs. We didn't play the running game nearly as well as we would've liked to. There's no question about that. They had a bunch of big runs and that was really key. They changed the field position in two or three plays there on two or three drives. We had them backed up at the eleven and three plays later they are in the end zone. Any time you are going to give up 25-30 yard runs or more in a game, those are going to pile up on you. I think they may have had half their yards on four carries. We didn't play sound enough. We didn't play fundamentally as well as we would like to play and they took advantage of it."

On Kyle Orton's pass to OT Ryan Clady

"It was a gadget play...I wouldn't have called if I didn't think it would work."

On missing two players at Safety position

"From what I was able to gather during the course of the game I didn't feel (S) David Bruton let us down at all, he wasn't a big liability today. That's not an excuse for the ball to continually get to the secondary. We need to do a better job before it gets there and we didn't do that today."

On having to settle for field goals

"We got it down there to the two and I think negative runs first of all, I think the first or second drive there had a negative run, a negative play. Took a sack, had a penalty in the last drive there and at the 2-yard line went backwards again. Any time you end up in the red zone and you end up in second and longer or third and longer, it's trouble because you don't have enough space to do a lot in the passing game to try overcome that. We had three shots within the 3-yard line at the end and didn't get it in. We've got to execute better and find a way to punch the ball in there whether it be in the running game or the passing game and we didn't do that today."

On if delay of game affecting their play

"It didn't. It was both teams. It was green light that was hitting players in the face so they were taking every precaution to make sure we were safe out there."

On the playoff race

"I have no idea what else happened today so I'm not sure I can comment properly on that. You go from being able to win three and get in automatically to now you've made it hard on yourself, there is no question. Winning two is the best we can do know. We are going to get ready to play Philadelphia and that is going to be a difficult challenge to go there and play a team that is playing really well right now. "

On RB Knowshon Moreno's play

"We've got to get more of a running game, not the back. The back's got to help them, the line's got to help them, the tight end's got to do better, the fullback's got to do better. We can do better. The running's game is everybody, when it works well, it's a lot of people working well together and when it doesn't work well it's a lot of people that need to do something different. Something a little bit better and today we struggled."

On Oakland's game-winning drive

"We were playing tight coverage and trying to take away the things that we thought they would go to, got them in third down situations, one fourth down situation. We also made some really plays, stayed in there and took some hits. I give them credit for coming in the game in the situation late and being able to play well and drive the football down there and make some really key throws. That's what decides a lot of close division games late in the year. They made the plays in the two-minute drive, we didn't."

On running the first play of each drive with RB Knowshon Moreno

"If you have a bad player in the game I don't think you can just cancel the running game the rest of the day. We have to block better, you've got to run better, you've got to call better plays. There are a lot of things that go into football to make it work. I'll be the first one to stand in line to say we have to do a better job."

On concern about the team's mental state

"No, every team in the same situation in term of having to deal with all the other distractions. We put ourselves in a situation where we've got to win two games and see what happens. There are a lot of teams that aren't in this situation. If we're concerned about our mental state now, we've got other issues. We're excited about the opportunity that we have."

On the decision to go with CB Tony Carter

"Tony's earned the opportunity, he really has and with what he's done in practice. I think he represented himself well today and for the most part I don't know how many balls were thrown at/or caught on him but I know he really played some key plays. I don't think he did a whole lot today to discourage us. A young guy playing his first National Football League football game and he held up well."

QB KYLE ORTON

On the frustration following the loss to Oakland

"It's frustrating. Losing at home to a division opponent is frustrating. We had already beat them once this year, and really (when we) started off the game, it looked like it was going to be kind of the same thing. We let them hang around, hang around, and they came back and got us."

On missed offensive opportunities

"We've got to start putting teams away, no question about it. All year, we've kind of let teams hang around, and we've been fortunate enough to win most of those games. You do it long enough and you don't put teams away, it comes back to bite you just like it did today."

On not putting the game out of the Raiders' reach

"(We had chances to put the game away) early and late. We had a chance to put them away in a four-minute offense (in the fourth quarter). We couldn't execute and didn't get anything done. We could've scored a touchdown down there at the last goal-line stand and couldn't get anything done and kicked a field goal from the 2(-yard line). When you do that and you just let teams continue to hang around, I don't care who they are, they're going to beat you."

On not executing in the red zone offensively

"That's the only problem (in the red zone) is execution. (We've had) good play calls, good looks-looks that we practiced against all week-and no execution."

On if the Broncos overlooked the Raiders

"I prepared for (the Raiders) harder than I have anybody all year, and I know the focus and the effort that we practiced with all week. We knew this was going to be a dogfight, and we knew we had to have it and came up short."

On not scoring a touchdown with first-and-goal at the Oakland 2-yard line in the fourth quarter

"We knew we had a chance to end it. This is the NFL, and when you've got a chance to end games and put them away, you've got to do it. This is a prime example of what happens when (you don't put teams away)."

On having only one big passing play on a 63-yard completion to WR Brandon Stokley in the fourth quarter

"That was a good play. We talked about it on the sideline. We got the look that wanted and we executed that one. That's great. I wish we could have stuck it in from there. I don't understand. They're good in the back end. I'll give them credit. They've got a good secondary, and it's tough to get away from those guys. Most of your big plays that you see on these guys throughout the year are runs and not necessarily passes. We were hoping for some explosive plays and really didn't get them, except for the one to Brandon."

On the Broncos' red-zone play selection showing a lack of confidence in the short-yardage running game

"I don't think so. We had the (quarterback) sneak early in the game from third-and-short and converted that one. (We) didn't get the next one. No, I don't think it was the lack of confidence in the running game. I think our running game has done pretty well, for the most part. Obviously, we've struggled in short yardage-I would say that we're searching. We're trying to find something that works down there. We're not just sitting here beating our head against the wall. We're trying to find things that will work, and it's just not happening right now."

On the implications of next week's game at Philadelphia

"We put ourselves in this predicament, so we've got to get ourselves out of it. (There's) only one way to do that, and that's work your butt off and work harder than you have all year to make sure that you're ready to play come Sunday, and I know we will be."

S DAVID BRUTON

On the penalties

"They just kept their drive alive. We just kept moving the ball for them when we had them stopped. The penalties just kept them alive."

On Oakland's quarterback change

"It didn't change anything, we treat every quarterback the same. They all have the same tendencies. [QB Charlie] Frye is the more athletic one, and we knew that [QB] JaMarcus Russell wasn't going to leave the pocket as much, so they might not use as many boots. But we stuck with the same game plan."

On the atmosphere in the locker room

"The atmosphere is low. Guys are not happy with the way things turned out. We should have pulled it out. We played well in the first game against them this year. We wanted to come out with a victory."

On a possible playoff berth

"We still have a chance. We feel that if we would have won this game and the next game, we would have been able to control our own fate instead of putting it in someone else's hands."

TE DANIEL GRAHAM

On the game

"They executed and made the plays. We have to do a lot better. We want to get the wins these last two weeks and we have to do a lot better and that is going to start tomorrow."

On playing in Philadelphia next week

"We are not worried about being underdogs. We have to take care of our own business. If we don't do that then we won't get the win. We have to put this one behind us and get ready for the next one."

On confidence level coming into the game

"We were not overconfident. We came in here with a good game plan. They just executed better than we did tonight"

OLB/DE MARIO HAGGAN

On the loss

"It was an important game for us versus a division rival, and we just did not have enough bullets to finish the game. You have to give credit to the Raiders, they came in with a game plan and made more plays than we did to win the game."

On the Oakland Raiders

"They just made more plays. We had a game plan that was tight and we thought it worked, and it did for most of the game. This game comes down to making more plays than the other team, and obviously today they did that. We just didn't have enough points at the end of the game."

On Oakland's game-winning drive

"It is definitely hard to believe. We still have opportunities to do some things. We have Philadelphia next week. This one right here was in our hands and we had it. It was a situation you want to be in when you try to build a great defense, but today we didn't prove that we were a great defense at the end. "

WR BRANDON MARSHALL

On what needs to be improved

"It is the same thing that has been wrong off and on all year. It is a number of things. We have to execute better and just do a better job."

On the results from the earlier games

"I don't pay attention to any of that stuff. I think that everyone was focused on our game."

On how Oakland covered him today

"They doubled me a couple of times, it depended on the down and distance. But they did a good job of just switching up their coverage on me today."

On struggles in the red zone

"Every game is like that. We have just been mediocre in the red zone and it is killing us."

On wearing a Chris Henry jersey during warm-ups

"He was just a buddy of mine."

Oakland Raiders Postgame Recap: Raiders 20, Broncos 19

Rated-R Superstar — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 00:43:37 -0000

Yes, Charlie Frye was the guy going into this one. No, he wasn't the last one standing. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

It thankfully wasn't JaMarcus Russell getting the start under center. Instead, it was Charlie Frye getting the start at quarterback for the Oakland Raiders today as they hoped to put a minor dent into the the Denver Broncos' playoff hopes. Little did we know that both Russell and Frye would play a role in deciding the outcome of today's game. The Raiders (4-9) and the Broncos (8-5) met earlier this year in Oakland in which Denver prevailed convincingly. Last year in Denver, however, it was Oakland who came away with a shocking 31-10 victory. This time around, let's see how the two bitter rivals went at each other. Anything can happen in a rivalry game between two original AFL franchises.

Michael Bush made his only carry in the first quarter worth an important six points. [via a.espncdn.com]

First Quarter: The Broncos began the game kicking it off to the Raiders. Not surprisingly, the ineffective Gary Russell was returning kicks. He took a knee, though, and the kick into the end zone actually benefited us. Charlie Frye, a 6-14 record as a starter, took the field and threw an incomplete pass on the first play. Out of the power-I, Justin Fargas gained a few yards on the next play. Needing seven yards, a six-yard pass to Chaz Schilens brought out the punt team. Shane Lechler only managed a weak 45-yard punt right to Eddie Royal which was returned for not too many yards. On first down, the rookie out of Georgia by the name of Knowshon Moreno carried it to the right side and was tackled by Nnamdi Asomugha. On second down, Greg Ellis almost got to Kyle Orton and forced an incomplete pass off the deflection. A false start penalty on tight Daniel Graham set Denver back some more, and they needed 12 yards on third down. It didn't matter as Royal picked up more than enough to convert it. Utilizing the running backs effectively -- particularly Knowshon Moreno with just a little dash of Correll Buckhalter -- allowed the Broncos to move down the field nicely. A third down stop inside the 10 by the Raiders defense forced a chip shot field goal by Matt Prater. The Broncos had taken the early 3-0 lead. The second possession started with a four-yard pass from Frye to Schilens. A three-yard run by Darren McFadden made it a very, very manageable third down. The Broncos out of the blitz and despite being in a shot gun, Frye hurried the throw. It wasn't much a throw. The ball just sort of floated out there and Champ Bailey grabbed it easily out of the air. On Denver's first play on their next possession, Brandon Marshall made a 24-yard catch after running his route after being put in motion. Two plays later, the Broncos ran a screen to Ryan Clady which cost them yards thanks to a very nice tackle by Asomugha. A confusing penalty pushed the Broncos back to the 17 yard line. Kyle Orton was sacked by rookie Matt Shaughnessy on the next play, and then a screen play to Eddie Royal was stopped by Stanford Routt and company on the right side. Another Matt Prater field goal -- this one extra "boomy" -- gave Denver a 6-0 lead with just over four minutes to play in the first quarter. A dumb intentional grounding penalty cost the Raiders 15 yards and a down. Kenny Peterson squashed Fargas behind the line of scrimmage and it become third down and impossible. Another blah run and it was punt time once again. A 64-yard punt by Lechler, all of which came by of the leg, was returned for a mediocre gain by Kenny McKinley. Moreno continued to own us on the ground with a couple of more nice carries. A third down blitz forced an incomplete pass on coverage by, yes, Chris Johnson! Mitch Berger, who seem as if has been punting forever, booted a smashing 12-yard punt out of bounds. Oakland started at their own 34 yard line and Charlie Frye shocked the crowd with a 26-yard scamper on the left side after a play fake. That exciting play capped the first quarter at Invesco Field at Mile High.

Sebastian Janikowski dropped in a 54-yard field goal as he routinely does. [via a.espncdn.com]

Second Quarter: The second quarter began with Frye looking deep for Louis Murphy; however, it was incomplete although an illegal contact penalty gave the Raiders five free yards. Shortly, third down and long followed. A nice crossing pattern to Johnnie Lee Higgins picked up 12 yards and the first down as well. Then boom, I don't even know what just happened! Michael Bush, on his first carry of the game, goes 23 yards and in for the score. It's his first touchdown in nine games and a Sebastian Janikowski extra point gave Oakland a 7-6 lead early in the second quarter. Denver's next possession ended up with a punt after a first down. Mike Mitchell knocked down Orton after bringing the blitz on third down. Higgins returned the punt for a decent gain and the Raiders had good field position. After some plays, Elvis Dumervil grabbed Charlie Frye's facemask and was called for a roughing the passer penalty. A 15-yard penalty gave Oakland the ball at their own 48. A couple of run plays later made it third and manageable for Frye and company. Chased out of the pocket, Frye threw off of his back foot and hit Murphy on the right side. It was a great effort by both parties. Josh McDaniels threw out the challenge flag, but it only cost him a timeout in the end. The ruling on the field stood as originally called and Oakland had a first down at Denver's 41 yard line. McFadden picked up three yards on a carry to the left side as we Raider fans collectively as a bunch were wondering where Michael Bush was. Anyway, the game must go on. A one-yard pass from Frye to Luke Lawton on a play-action made it third down and six yards to go. Ah, now Bush is in the backfield. Out of the shot gun, Frye fired down the field to Schilens. It appeared as if Schilens had come down with it, but Denver's Tony Carter wouldn't give up on the play and made a nice play on the ball. Janikowski squeaked in a field goal to give the Raiders had a 10-6 lead over the Broncos. Denver opened up their next drive with what's been working well and that's been Knowshon Moreno's legs. A six-yard carry was all very well, but then Tyvon Branch blew the next one up in the backfield. An incomplete pass intended for LaMont Jordan set up a punt and a bunch of booing from the home crowd. A punt gave it back to Oakland, but it backed them up 15 yards after the Higgins return because of an illegal block in the back penalty on Sam Williams. According to commentator Steve Tasker, a former special teams specialist, claims there was no illegal block in the back. It didn't matter what he thought, however. A timeout was burned by Frye before the first play was run. Brandon Myers, filling in for the injured Zach Miller, made his first catch of the game for a decent gain. Michael Bush finally got a carry after his 23-yard touchdown in the first quarter and it was good enough for a first down. Frye was having communication problems with his helmet, so he ran over to the sidelines to get the play yelled at him. Andra Davis almost picked off Frye on the next play. Whew, that was close. Another near-turnover happened on the next play as Bush lost it; however, left tackle Mario Henderson was able to pick it up. A third down draw to Bush goes for 13 yards and Denver's defense had no idea. A solid run by McFadden took us to the two-minute warning. In good position for points, the Raiders looked to forge ahead some more. A nice throw from Frye to Murphy picked up a good chunk of yards and yet another 13-yard run by Bush took it to Denver's 16 yard line. Tony Stewart got into the act a few plays later with his first catch of the game. The Broncos got their stop on third down and the Raiders were confined to just three points. Janikowski booted through his second field goal of the day and Oakland had a 13-6 lead over Denver. Using up 22 seconds, the Broncos had three incomplete passes and then a short little pass over the middle to Jabar Gaffney. Tom Cable used his final timeout and forced the Broncos to at least bring out the punting unit. A 45-yard punt ended the half with Oakland on top over Denver by a 13-6 score. Oh, but wait as there was a penalty and so the Raiders got the chance to run one more play. A nice run for McFadden took us to halftime.

Honoring Chris Henry before the game, Brandon Marshall scored a touchdown during it. [via a.espncdn.com]

Third Quarter: The Broncos started the second half with the ball. A touchback by Janikowski plated Denver at their own 20. After picking up a first down, Kirk Morrison made a nice tackle in the open field to bring up a third down for the Broncos. Orton fired and completed it to Brandon Stokley as he, along with Tony Scheffler, made his first catch of the game on the opening drive of the second half. A 13-yard run by LaMont Jordan followed that as Hiram Eugene knocked him out of bounds. The Denver offense appeared to be firing on all cylinders as Orton hooked up with Eddie Royal in the middle of the field. A sense of urgency indeed from the Broncos offense, Gus Johnson. A big third down and long Denver could not convert thanks to a heavy blitz and great coverage by Chris Johnson. Matt Prater banged through his field third goal of the game and Oakland maintained their lead, with it now standing at 13-9. Oakland had the ball back and Frye hit Bush in the flat for a nice gain on the left side to pick up a first down. A toss to McFadden on the right side -- hey, McFadden in space -- picked up good yardage and even a first down in the process. Shaken up on the play was Champ Bailey, and he had to leave the game. A promising drive turned sour, however, with McFadden getting the ball stripped. Denver had it at midfield. A struggling offense has gained momentum just like that. On the first play, though, Asomugha blew it up in the backfield as he dropped Moreno for a four-yard loss. A stupid penalty on the other side of the field went against Stanford Routt and a third down and 11 turned into an automatic first down. A one-handed grab by Brandon Marshall gave the Broncos a first down and then he made another play all the way down to the Raiders' 19 yard line. Denver really took advantage of Marshall in this quarter when Asomugha wasn't on him. On a scamper by Kyle Orton, Tommy Kelly was down on the field with an injury. Some plays later, Orton hooked up with Marshall as Brandon was a yard deep in the end zone against a zone defense. Following that play, a fight occurred. I didn't see who exactly was involved, but it looked like Richard Seymour against some offensive linemen from Denver. Anyway, Denver cashed in on the McFadden fumble and the Broncos had scored 10 straight points to take a 16-13 lead late in the third quarter. Gary Russell finally got a chance to return a kick and it was actually a good one; however, penalty flag totally negated that one. It seems like the game is totally spiraling out now. A couple of sweet runs by Michael Bush -- including one of the 40-yard variety -- took the ball down to the 31 yard line of Denver's. Then, Darren McFadden had a huge run of his own that went for 28 yards on the left side. After a pair of one-yard Bush runs, the Raiders were still on the outside looking in with 28 seconds to go in the third quarter. On third down and needing a yard, another carry for Bush went nowhere but instead backwards. That ended the third quarter.

Yes, this is the correct reaction after JaMarcus Russell's performance. [via a.espncdn.com]

Fourth Quarter: To start the quarter, the Raiders were looking for the end zone. On fourth down, Cable elected to go for it. A fake dive and pitch to McFadden went for two yards, but was ultimately a yard short. Denver took over at their own one yard line. The defense stood firm, however, and Berger booted it to Higgins. A nice punt, Higgins backpedaled and was able to return it for some yards to his own 40 yard line. Carries by McFadden, Bush and then Bush again picked up a first down for the Raiders as they moved into Broncos territory. Frye dropped back to pass and was totally rocked by Andra Davis. Trying to get up to his feet under his own power, Frye just could not due to the impact of the hit. The trainers came onto the field and so, yes, JaMarcus Russell marched onto the field as we hung our heads. Where was J.P. Losman? An illegal shift penalty pinned the Raiders back even further. A run by Bush was followed up by a timeout. Let's have a recap within the recap for a second. Russell comes in and we have two men in motion at the same time, a weak run to the left side and then a timeout. Alright, so the run play wasn't on him. Still, you see what it's like with Russell in the game at quarterback instead of right tackle. Well, the next pass was totally short intended for Murphy and a five-yard spiking penalty on Louis brought out Lechler for a punt. The Broncos came out running it with Moreno and Jordan, and the Raiders are going to need a stop somehow to get the offense back out there. On the next play, a slant to Stokley went all the down inside he five as he beat Routt on that play. A horse collar penalty on Routt was tacked on. There was a bit of a delay afterward with some laser trouble in the crowd, but the game was continued. A stop on third down on the ground and a fourth down stop through the air held Denver to a field goal. After lasers and guys losing their pants, we had a bit of a scrummage after the field goal. It's all going down today. Just under six minutes remained with the Broncos on top, 19-13. A run by Bush and a four-yard reception by Schilens made it a very manageable third down for Russell. A low ball to Bush, that should have been caught, was dropped by Bush. The defense did their part, largely due to the sack, and Oakland was getting the ball back after the Denver punt. After a Higgins return, the Raiders had it at their own 38 yard line with still 3:29 to play. Russell was still the quarterback. On the first play, Cooper Carlisle had to scoop up a Russell fumble. God, we're doomed. Oh, but a flag on the next play on Andre Goodman gave the Raiders the ball in Broncos territory. A pass interference was rightfully called and new life had been granted. On second down, Russell was knocked out of the game. It's up to quarterback number three -- J.P. "Does He Even Know a Play?" Losman -- to save us now. After one incomplete pass by Losman, Russell was back in there. On fourth down, he fired it over the middle and it was caught by Tony Stewart who had enough for a first down. That took us to the two-minute warning. The first play out of it, Russell hit Stewart for nine yards. Following that, he found Schilens at the 10 yard line. Following an incomplete pass, an illegal contact penalty gave the Raiders an automatic first down at the five. There were 45 seconds to go in the game. Out of the shot gun, right tackle Cornell Green had a false start. That's pretty inexcusable. Still, it was a first down. Out of the shot gun, Russell dropped back to pass and has his arm hit as he he threw. The ball went out of bounds to the right. Then, on the next play, the impossible happened. Russell fires and it's caught by Chaz Schilens, his favorite target. With 35 seconds to go, the Broncos had just one timeout remaining. McKinley brought out the kick to the 21 yard line. Greg Ellis breaks through on the first play and sacks Kyle Orton while forcing a fumble in the meantime. After a second down incomplete pass, a deep ball to Brandon Marshall was broken up thanks to a huge hit from Michael Huff. A fourth down pass was completed to Brandon Stokley with about eight seconds to go; however, with no timeouts, Denver couldn't stop the clock. The game was over the Raiders had prevailed, 20-19, on the road over the Broncos.

The caption goes right here. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

The Report Card: I'll give grades to the pass offense, rush offense, pass defense, rush defense and special teams. Of course, you're welcome to give your own grades in the comments.

Pass Offense: D+ -- When you only complete less than 50 percent of your passes and you throw for 115 yards with an interception, you don't even deserve a "D+" grade; however, when you lead your team down the field like that to win the game, there's a curve involved. I think this is even a little generous.
Rush Offense: A -- Michael Bush had a tremendous day on the ground and Darren McFadden was certainly very good himself despite just 12 carries. Overall, a touchdown to go along with a 7.1 yards per carry average is very nice. Getting that touchdown in the third quarter maybe would've bumped it up to an "A+" grade, but we'll take this one every single time out.
Pass Defense: B -- Brandon Marshall was contained to a degree and that's all you can really ask for against a great wide receiver. Nnamdi Asomugha covered him well, but Stanford Routt and Chris Johnson didn't. Overall, the heat was on Kyle Orton enough to make him uncomfortable back there at times.
Rush Defense: A- -- A bad start, yes, but the rush defense really put the clamps down. LaMont Jordan had a nice average, but Knowshon Moreno did absolutely nothing in the second half. This was probably our best game as a unit as far as the opposition's ground game goes.
Special Teams: B -- Maybe not a great return pursuit a few times and Lechler didn't have his best day, but overall, it was a really good effort. Gary Russell didn't get a chance to return too many, but Johnnie Lee Higgins was decent and Sebastian Janikowski didn't miss.

My Thoughts and Tidbits: Wow, that was a terrific ending. Who thought that Frye would get knocked out, Russell would get knocked out and then Losman would have to come in? Then, who thought Russell would come back in the game and then lead the team to a game-winning touchdown drive? Man, that was an incredible game. The defense really played hard. The defensive line brought the heat, the linebackers tackled and the defensive backs made plays all over the field. That's how you respond after a bad game, guys. Let's finally get two consecutive wins with us taking on the Cleveland Browns (3-11) next Sunday. Thank you, Oakland Raiders, for our early Christmas present.

Poll

Weekly Recap Poll: Who was the Oakland Raiders player of the game?

Sunday Morning Scout--Oakland at Denver Edition

Jeremy Bolander — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 08:23:44 -0000

I take an inordinate amount of notes on the upcoming games throughout the week, culled from all of Doug's great links in Tracks, emails with local and not-so-local sportswriters and analysts, and a few rare gems that I manage to find the time to dig up myself.

I finally decided it was time to settle on a format and share the info with MHR, so bear with me if this seems clumsy or ham-handed in its first incarnation; as in any analysis, whether it is draft prospects or short yardage running games, the choice isn't "what do I include?" but, "what do I leave out?" Let's see how it goes. Welcome to Sunday Morning Scout, the best way to begin a Broncos Sunday: MHR style!

A clear playoff picture. Home division games.

With three weeks to go, this is pretty easy: beat Oakland and beat Kansas City, two sub-.500 teams whom Denver has beaten by double digits already this year.

Worst-case scenario if they do this is 10 wins, which can only be challenged by both Miami (7-6) and Baltimore (7-6) going 3-0 and having Miami's Strength of Victory clock in higher than Denver's. Denver currently owns the higher (adjusted for assumed wins and losses by the above scenario) strength of victory, and a little projective number crunching puts the remaining variables in Denver's favor by a slight 2-1 edge (out of 27 variable games Denver only requires 9 favorable outcomes compared to Miami's 18).

The NFL is a game of percentages over time, and those percentages say that in the above tiebreak scenario, Denver's slight advantage is all they need, so Denver's job is as clear as it has ever been: win division games at home. That was true on day one of the season, and it will still be true on day 119.

STRATEGY

Run/pass balance.

Denver pummeled the Raiders with an unbalanced 67% - 33% run/pass split earlier in the year. For that game, it worked out to 4.8 yards per play (45 total) on rushes and 6.8 yards per play (23 total) on passes. A 2-yard "passing premium" (a concept which represents the risk inherent in passing plays and shows up as the difference in avg yds/play for pass vs. rush) is rather high, and the indication is that a few more game-planned passes would have been highly effective in deepening the domination and blowing out the score completely. Thinking back, the reasoning behind NOT passing more was likely the slow start that our passing offense was experiencing with Kyle Orton's injured finger and the general learning curve of Josh McDaniel's offense.

Going into this game the expectation of the pundits is that Denver will attempt to re-enact their 200+ yard rushing game of Week 3, but in true amoeba fashion, McDaniel's first game-planning priority will be maximizing his yards per play from that matchup, and that means calling more passes, especially run-based passes like the playaction. With Oakland's strength languishing in the running game, and a "journeyman" QB under center, the expectation is for Oakland to attempt to run a risk-averse running scheme early, using short, high-percentage passes to backs Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden and a high percentage of running calls, probably designed to use clock and shorten the game. I would expect Denver to start the game with a slightly more risky package than we have become accustomed to seeing, in an attempt to setup some fantastic matchups in our running game and against their passing attack.

A huge key to what we will be seeing in this game will be to identify early just how risk-averse McDaniels is in the playcalling. With key injuries on offense and defense, he may not be willing to take any chances against Oakland. On the other hand, he may be comfortable with Knowshon Moreno and David Bruton, among others, and be willing to ride those guys. Confidence in the team right now will go a long ways if they make the playoffs, in terms of adding a dynamic that other teams must prepare for. The good news is that if they pass on that opportunity this week, they may well have another opportunity in the final week of the season to accomplish many of the same goals.

PERSONNEL

Moreno and the rock.

The good news about the likely addition of passes to the Broncos' gameplan is that their running corps could use a break. With Correll Buckhalter likely out, Moreno, LaMont Jordan and Spencer Larsen all playing at significantly less than 100%, and Peyton Hillis struggling to get on the field, this is very good news. Denver may be able to focus on keeping Moreno in the 20- to 23-carry range, where he was most effective in college. The calls for Knowshon to shoulder "a heavy workload" are a bit misplaced. If you can't use him effectively at 18 carries, you start to see diminishing returns afterwards. In college he averaged around 107 yards rushing per game (130 all purpose). He may reach and surpass that in the NFL, but it isn't a viable target to aim for. Focus on keeping him in a good range with his carries and let the rest take care of itself.

Clady vs Seymour, Seymour vs. Clady.

Ryan Clady ain't talking, and Richard Seymour is deflecting criticism of his hair-pulling stunt in Week Three, but for all intents and purposes this is probably a developing grudge match in Broncos-Raiders history. Clady and Seymour first met in 2008 when Seymour disrupted Clady's perfect rookie season with a half-sack in NE's blowout of Denver. When they met again, in Week Three in Oakland, after Seymour got, frankly, dumped by NE, a bit of frustration boiled over into a personal foul and fine when Clady dominated the matchup and caused Seymour to yank his Samson-like locks.

Now, with Clady fighting not only a generally slumping season for the O-Line in general, but his own personal slump within a slump where his expected level of consistent excellence seems just out of reach, and with Seymour needing to prove his professionalism in the face of what is looking like career murder in Oakland, this matchup may very well be one of the best in the game. With Daniel Graham staying in to help Tyler Polumbus, it would not be surprising for Denver to attempt to single Clady up against Seymour in the passing game, a high-risk, very high-reward scenario. Tied 1-1, let Round 3 of the Clady vs. Seymour grudge match begin.

Brandon Marshall vs Nnamdi Asomugha?

21 catches vs. $28.5 million. Pundits are already salivating over the matchup, and they should; it would be a matchup that would pit an immovable object against an irresistible force. Except it probably won't go down that way. To date, 90% of Oakland's coverage in the past two matchups has consisted of Chris Johnson on Marshall, and the results have been a workmanlike, if not effective total of 151 yards and 1 TD. A sizzling-hot Marshall against a slumping Johnson plays right into the game-planning hands of the Broncos, and for what it is worth, Johnson has basically noted that he can't stop Marshall from getting his receptions. "The key is stopping those plays after five or six yards and not letting him get further downfield," Johnson said. "The big ones -- the ones he makes 20 or 30 yards -- those are the ones that hurt you." If the Raiders are smart, they will assign Asomugha to shadow Marshall, and not leave that decision in the hands of the Broncos...

Another starter for Oakland at QB: out of the fire and into the Frye-ing pan?

First thing to note about Charlie Frye: he took a devastating situation and turned it into something positive once before. After being the first player in NFL history to be an Opening Day starter one week and traded the next (from Cleveland to Seattle), he immediately recognized a golden opportunity: the chance to study under Mike Holmgren, a Bill Walsh-descended QBing guru. "I wouldn't take that away for anything. If something happens to you, it makes you hungrier and keeps your eye on the prize as far as getting back on the field." The result is that he took a part of his game to a level he never even knew existed. He learned how to prepare himself, and as a result he has earned a reputation as one of the hardest working players in the Raider's locker room.

That has to be something Frye can build on as he prepares to be the second QB this year to leapfrog JaMarcus Russell for the starting job in Oakland. Bruce Gradkowski had salvaged a shred of respect for his team, and in the process had earned the respect of his teammates. When he went down, it was exactly that last shred of confidence which was threatened with extinction as well. Tom Cable's choice to bypass Russell was an attempt to maintain that thread of team unity, and it might just work.

Frye, who hasn't started a game since Oct. 12th of last year (12-of-23 for 83 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT), which was his only game in the past two years, has been found in the film room, in the gym and in the meetings, and rarely anywhere else. He had taken it upon himself to submit ideas for the offensive gameplan once Gradkowski was promoted to starter, and in the process had forcibly wedged himself into the game-planning session's give-and-take. When Russell's second demotion came down, and Cable announced that Frye would be the starter, within moments Frye had his position coach on the phone to go over the week's gameplan. He came in early the next day with a complete understanding of what it was that Oakland was going to try to do, as well as Denver's perceived strengths and weaknesses.

And while nobody is saying exactly what that plan is going to be, Denver should be playing close attention to how the offense ran under Gradkoswski, because they are going to attempt to do most of the same things. With the team expected to be firmly behind Frye, his biggest challenge may be getting enough of the rust off to be effective. Denver would be wise to bring pressure early and often.

Elvis Dumervil vs. Mario Henderson

Henderson is coming off of a disheartening performance where he allowed three sacks alone, and where his linemates surrendered JaMarcus to the wolves six times, overall. In an overall disappointing season, Henderson has been particularly poor, and his confidence seems decimated. With poor depth on the line, he is at serious risk of being DOOM's plaything in this matchup, and with DOOM in the neighborhood of a couple of fantastic individual achievements, he may be able to generate some momentum that gets out of hand. DOOM got 2 sacks in his first matchup with Oakland, and the Raiders give up a sack on average every 9 passing attempts, to rank near the very bottom rung of the NFL.

On the other side, DOOM has to be excited to see Frye again. The last time they faced off, when Frye was still a Brown, Elvis notched his first three-sack game. DOOM has never recorded more than two sacks a year against Oakland, so he will be shooting to break that trend in this game.

By The Numbers

#20

Look for this number on every Raiders offensive snap. For the Broncos it will be Brian Dawkins, and for the Raiders it will be Darren McFadden. Last week, Redskins safety LaRon Landry made the mistake of not consistently accounting for where #20 was on the field, and McFadden took advantage twice in the first half. Twice McFadden was split out wide and sent in motion, where he beat Landry on slants across the middle, the first time for a whopping 48-yard gain, and the second time for 26 yards. On the afternoon, McFadden caught three for 84, and should be expected to be moved around again to create matchups in space in the middle of the field.

It will be Dawkin's responsibility to close fast and break things up. If McFadden gets the ball in his hands out there, it is absolutely critical to make the tackle, easier said than done.

19-3

Kyle Orton's home record, best in the NFL since the 1970 merger. Kyle Orton needs to just be himself, and the Broncos can start working on the nice playoff bow to put on this present season.

4.5, 3.8, 3.1

That is the average rushing yards per carry for Oaklands top three runners. Lucky for Denver, Cable is too ignorant to use the 4.8, and Al Davis is too senile not to use the 3.1.

Michael Bush is the great secret of the Oakland offense - so great in fact, that even the Raiders don't seem to know about him. He is their only rusher to break 100 yards in the last 13 games. Despite seeing a significantly-reduced workload since the beginning of November, he maintained his average at 4.8, only to find himself without a single offensive touch in the blowout loss to the Redskins. Even the underwhelming fullback Gary Russell got two carries and two receptions. And even though Fargas averages almost 85 yards a game against the Broncos, you can count on McFadden being Al's choice. The insistence of drumming McFadden's low yards per carry into the gameplan, all in the name of "flow," is the antithesis to the Broncos' game-planning mentioned at the beginning of this article. The Raiders are essentially forcing their "passing premium" into the stratosphere, which forces them to take only the highest-risk passing options available, at the worst times. Well done, guys.

142

Number of rushing TDs allowed by the Raiders over the past 109 games, a stretch of futility unmatched in the history of the NFL, and leading to the worst record in the NFL over that same span: 28-81, an epically awful .257 winning percentage.

90 for 902

Number of penalties and penalty yards logged by the Raiders in 2009, with 3 games still to play. After spending the first half of the year playing uncharacteristically sound football, Oakland has imploded as of late, dropping from top ten to 25th in the league. In Washington alone they notched 14 penalties for 118 yards, including a backbreaking personal foul that essentially ended the 10-10 lock they were in. Oakland may be the only place I know of where a completely-collapsed structure can implode.

94-22

The score in Denver's wins against sub-.500 teams this year. My grandma called this "Making hay while the sun shines."

6 for 1000

Moreno is on pace for a 1,000-yd rookie season, and I for one couldn't be happier for him or the Broncos. He is the epitome of what I want the Broncos to look for in a football player - the kind of person who was described thusly by his coach at Georgia, and he meant every word of it: "Knowshon Moreno, I know when you get to watch the kid practice every day and see what he does, it gets you excited. He is a very vibrant guy. He could be a gymnast. You can't hide his enthusiasm for life. He will light up his team with his energy level. He will jump over a guy standing on his feet and score. He has got speed, power and agility. People have to respect his power. If (the defense) sends a guy full-speed to try and get him, Knowshon will make them miss."

If Moreno does acheive 1,000 yds, he will join some good company: 2002 Clinton Portis (1,508), 2000 Mike Anderson (1,487), 1999 Olandis Gary (1,159), 1989 Bobby Humphrey (1,151), 1995 Terrell Davis (1,117).

8,871

Number of consecutive snaps played by Casey Weigmann. An incredible strength and perseverance is required, and he may need that trait in spades as this line attempts to go from having a so-so season, to a terrific postseason.

MHR Chalk Talk - Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos '09

Steve Nichols — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 18:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

During practice this week, and under the watchful eye of Coach "Jedi" McDaniels, Broncos QB Kyle Orton practices levitating a football. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Browse more photos »

I have a lot on my mind right now, and I want to touch on each issue that is rumbling around in my head.

1) The loss of Bengals receiver Chris Henry

2) The great effort by Denver in their loss in Indianapolis

3) The beating we are about to administer to the Raiders, and...

4) What is in store for the Broncos, this year and next.

Let's start with the big news of the week, the death of Chris Henry. I don't know the circumstances surrounding the death of Chris. I know there was a domestic dispute, and Chris fell out of the rear of a moving pickup truck. But that's it. I'm not interested in who was at fault, and what led up to this tragedy. Here's what I do know:

Chris was a young father. There are young children whose lives are going to be impacted by this death, and that is more crucial than anything having to do with football. My prayers are with them.

Second (and not even on the scale of importance as the loss of a human life) is the question as to how the Bengals will choose to react to this tragedy. This week the Bengals play the Chargers. As we know, the Broncos would like to see the Chargers lose as many games as possible in the final three weeks. CIN is the biggest threat left for the Chargers (the other two games are at TEN and home against WAS). Will the Bengals take this death too hard to play four quarters of football, or will they play an inspired game?

I was against SD in this game, but now I'm for Cincy. I'm sure much of the football world will be, too. Let's keep Chris's children in our prayers.

Denver is a Very Good Team

What did I want and expect from Denver this year? A record of at least 8 wins, and improved play. Well, I've received what I wanted (and expected).

Our defense is exciting to watch! Brian Dawkins is all over the field making big plays, Elvis Dumervil is looking like the sack leader of 2009, and Andre' Goodman and Renaldo Hill have held their own with Champ Bailey for for playing at an elite level. Robert Ayers and Darcel McBath look like they have secure futures with the team, and Andra Davis has silenced the naysayers that claimed he didn't belong on the same team as D.J. Williams. Denver has one of the best defenses in the League right now, and the hiring of Mike Nolan to run the defense was brilliant.
When Josh McDaniels had to determine the best way to get something in return for Jay Cutler, his options were limited. He took Kyle Orton and a few draft picks. Right now, Orton is playing much better than Cutler (many of us would have said this was even the case before the trade), and that number one pick from Chicago is looking like a real gem right now. Orton isn't flashy, but he isn't giving the ball (and ballgames) away either.
I don't like the fact that we "only" rank 12th in running the ball. Still, Knowshon Moreno is on track to go over 1,000 yards for the season (despite sharing the running load), and Correll Buckhalter averages 5.3 yards a carry. I'll take it.

It sucked losing to Indianapolis, didn't it? Well, not entirely. First of all (as our own John Bena points out), this isn't the same Broncos team of the last few years that would have been blown out. It was a tight game. Denver blew some chances in the red zone (including a missed FG, and an INT in the end zone), but the team also played for 60 minutes and did a lot of things right.

I read Ted Bartlett's excellent ST&NO article on Tuesday, and found myself nodding my head in agreement time and time again with his take on our Indy game. I'd like to copy and paste many of his thoughts here, but I'd have to use most of his article, so you might as well just click the link I provided and read the whole thing again because it is that good. Here are the highlights -

The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 possessions.

And now I'll just paraphrase some more thoughts from the story -

We proved that we can disrupt Manning. Andre' Goodman was brilliant. Darcel McBath may be lost to IR, but he had a heck of a game before going down to injury. In fact, he was awesome. Indy didn't have an answer for Brandon Marshall (more on this in a moment). Jabar Gaffney looked good. Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil looked great (despite a lack of sacks). Doom (despite a recent fanpost calling for a trade due to his lack of ability in run stopping) continues to handle run stopping and pass rushing duties like a pro.

And now about Brandon Marshall. The Broncos may be trying to sound "politicaly correct" when they say that they weren't trying to get the ball to Marshall over and over. Coach McDaniels says that Marshall happened to be open a lot, so that is where the ball went. I appreciate what the coach is saying, but he's reciting "coach speak" because he's too polite to state the cold, hard truth.

The truth is, Marshall was open some of the time, and some of the time he wasn't. But the bottom line is, nobody in the Colts secondary had even the smallest trace of ability to stop The Beast. Simply put, Marshall did a brilliant job of out-muscling, out-jumping, and outdistancing his opponents on nearly every play. The Tampa-2 remains a good defense, but it still takes mediocre cornerbacks and puts them into positions to make plays. When a good QB like Kyle Orton can dink and dunk underneath the coverage, a powerful man like Marshall can make the catches and run over lesser corners. Coach McDaniels has too much class to put it like that, but that's how it was. We kept going to the well because the well wasn't drying up, and the guys guarding the well just weren't that good.

We have beat great teams this year, and lost a close game to a probable Super Bowl contender. I feel great!

The Oakland Raiders

How bad have things gotten in Oakland? This bad (warning - strong language). When the editor of a fan blog goes this far over the top, we know that things have collapsed completely. The unfortunate linked story tells us everything we need to know about the Raiders organization. Most notably, that the fan base is disgusted with their own team.

Where to begin? Denver is saying all the right things in their press conferences (such as "Oakland is a better team than their record, and they're capable of big plays if we aren't careful"), but really, c'mon now.

As a coach, I am going to pump my team up as much as possible. Any team can beat any other team if one of those teams isn't playing at a high level. But here's the problem. This is a new Denver team, a team that plays with the "Brian Dawkins Work Ethic". We don't let up, and we play hard. The shenanigans (or Shanahanigans) of the last three or so years have ended. This team is pumped up and playing hard. I frankly can't see the Denver Broncos taking a team for granted anymore.

Here is what you need to know as we go into this game.

First, Oakland is a terrible team on offense. They are second-to-last in the following vital stats - points, yards, and pass yards. In fact, they only average 11.9 points per game. And while they rank 31st in those areas, they rank only 22nd in running the ball. Denver's defense matches up perfectly - 4th in preventing points, 3rd in preventing yards, 2nd in preventing the pass. Denver is 15th in stopping the run.

Things are so bad, that posters at S&BP are excited about the prospect of seeing their third string QB get the start!

On defense, things aren't much better. The Raiders are 26th in preventing points, 28th in stopping yards, and 30th in stopping the run. At least they are 17th in stopping the pass (which isn't saying much). Meanwhile, the Broncos are a better match on the offensive side of things, though the stats aren't great. Denver is 20th in points, 17th in yards, 18th in passing yards, and 12th in the rush. Still, Denver has a record-setting WR, a careful QB, and excellent RBs.

Do the Raiders have any hope at all? Of course they do. Everything (including home-field advantage) screams for a Broncos blowout over the Raiders, but it isn't a done deal.

First of all, the Raiders have players that anyone should respect. That the team doesn't play together as a team is their downfall. The Raiders have good running backs in depth, and any of them could break a good play with good blocking and poor defense by Denver. But with a 5-2 look and motivated play from Denver, I'm not sure this will be an issue.

The Raiders also have a decent defensive line, but right DE Greg Ellis is probably out for this game. A good match-up may be LDE Richard Seymour against Denver RT Tyler Polumbus.

One of the better players for Oakland is Nnamdi Asomugha, a young and very talented CB. He'll face Brandon Marshall. Even with excellent coverage, Orton has several other places to go with the ball (3 other excellent receivers, and two TEs).

Sadly, the best player on the Oakland team (in my opinion) is kicker Sebastian Janikowski. He has the power and accuracy to make just about any field goal, and the thin air in Denver only gives him better chances to score.

Denver's biggest weakness isn't players or coaches, it is injuries. Denver's primary running back is out for this game. RDE/OLB Elvis Dumervil didn't practice, and neither did SS Renaldo Hill.

So forgive me for the keys to this game sounding a bit, well, tongue in cheek. I'm being serious.

Keys to the Game

Oakland -

Forget about this game. If you want to start winning games, the change needs to come from the top. Al Davis is unable to keep his claws out of the team's football operations. He has brought in a boxer instead of a head coach, a QB who needs Jenny Craig more than Kirstie Alley does, and forces the team to play a vertical offense approach that has been outdated for decades. Throw in the terrible player moves of late (such as the Javon Walker signing), and this team isn't going to win many games. Until Al Davis is removed, the Oakland Raiders are the ~~Detroit Lions~~ Oakland Raiders of the NFL.
Pray that the Broncos take you for granted like Pittsburgh did.
Run the ball, and pray to God that Denver makes mistakes.

Denver -

Take this game seriously. The only way that you lose this game is to play against the Raiders as if the Raiders are as bad as they are. Play your own brand of football, and play hard on every down. Everything else will work out.
Limit mistakes. If you want to hand the game to Oakland, get some penalties and turnovers.
Curb the excessive celebrations. I expect a lot of great plays on offense, defense, and special teams. If you take off your helmet (I won't mention any names) or do a choreographed dance, we can get penalized. (lol)

Where do we go from here?

With a newly built team that doesn't sleep on games, I expect wins against KC and OAK at home. The game that really intrigues me is the one against Philly. I have this game circled on my calendar as an excellent game against a good team. I also see it as a prelude to the playoffs. How we play against the Eagles in an away game will tell me a lot about our postseason chances. More on that game next week.

If the Broncos can win the last three games (I'd put the odds at about 50/50) and SD loses to CIN and drops a game in TEN, I really like where the Broncos could end up. On the other hand, if DEN loses to PHI and the Ravens win out (games against CHI, PIT, and OAK), we could drop from 5th seed to 6th seed. In the end, I think Denver gets the 5th seed, regardless of the PHI game. But winning that game (along with the must-win "easy" games of OAK and KC) may prove to be critical based on what SD and BAL do.

Here's a major thought - there are four teams ahead of Denver in the playoff seedings at this point, and Denver has beaten three of them (SD, CIN, and NE). We are good enough to go far this year. We also lost to two of those teams (SD and IND). I don't think we're likely to win or even make a SB appearance. In fact, it is hard to beat any team twice (the losing team has more film that benefits them), so I think a deep playoff run is difficult.

But I wanted improvement this year, and a playoff appearance is ahead of where I thought we would be. Coach McDaniels gets an A+ for his first year.

Last year, it would have been silly to talk about playoffs this early (remember the three game losing skid?), but a new coach and a new team attitude has me believing that we will make the playoffs this year. I'm not even concerned about how far we get after that. Denver has already exceeded my expectations, and everything now is icing on the cake.

And now, for a parting shot...

I want to thank the Colts fans who visited us last week. They were friendly, smart, and active. I congratulate them on their fine victory, and for having class at our site. Well, almost all of them.

I enjoyed the following comment under my story last week...

Which is the bigger overstatement?

"Broncs have the best secondary ever assembled on one team"

OR

"Colts are facing an incredible pass rush"

Neither the secondary or the pass rush are the best in the league this year, let alone legendary. Let’s watch the game and decide which of these statements is the most absurd.

by Check Your Facts

I didn't see the comment until today. Here was my answer some moments ago...

Check YOUR facts sir.

Is it just me, or is Elvis Dumervil leading the League in sacks right now? Bailey and Dawkins not legendary players with HOF in their futures? Are you kidding me?

Denver wasn’t going to win this game (as I wrote), but your comment is very perplexing. As it turns out, we intercepted Manning three times, and hurried him through out the game.

Check your facts indeed. lol

by Steve Nichols

It is now clear which comment was most absurd. Funny, but it wasn't either of mine.

: )

Poll

Jamarcus Russell, QB of the Oakland Raiders....

Doom and the Pursuit of History

Emmett Smith — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 19:03:37 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

27 days ago: Denver Broncos defensive end Elvis Dumervil (92) and defensive tackle Darrell Reid (95) react after Dumervil sacked New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Denver, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009. Denver won 26-6. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

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With 15 sacks already to his credit, Elvis Dumervil is within reach of setting an NFL record for sacks in a single season. The record is currently held by Michael Strahan, who reached 22.5 sacks in 2001, the highest total since the stat was first recorded. With only 3 games left, Doom is in a race with time as well as against the offensive linemen who stand between him and his goal. He's also one sack behind Simon Fletcher for the Broncos team record.

Once considered to be too small and too light to play at the NFL level, Doom's career has leapt forward following his change from defensive end to outside linebacker during the summer of 2009. Following players like Mike Vrabel and James Harrison, Elvis is one of a growing number of 'tweener' players who did not exactly fit into one position or another due to unusual metrics. Like the best of those tweeners, Doom has some unique abilities. Doom has large hands that are unusually strong for his size and possesses a skill at leverage that few players can boast. Once he was moved away from the left tackles who outweighed him by 60-100 lb, Elvis was also able to bring his speed to bear on the plays, getting a running start that let him hammer into ball carriers, dodge around linemen and use his unique blend of speed, power, balance and leverage to bring down quarterbacks.

Every player learns from those who have played before, and Dumervil is no different in that respect. Recently, Men's Journal ran an article on Michael Strahan, who gave several pointers on exactly how he managed to achieve 141.5 sacks over the course of 216 games between 1993 and 2007. While Strahan had a considerable size advantage over Dumervil (he played at 6-5 and 278 lb, compared to Doom's 5-11 (some still say it is 5'10) and 248 lb, the principles he laid out are just as important regardless of metrics. Some of them clearly are a benefit to Dumervil.

Job 1 - The Film Room

Strahan believed, as most of the best NFL players do, that the game is won in the film room, although played out on the field. He stated that finding "tells" on the part of the offensive linemen, quarterbacks and running backs, as well as tells in the form of certain tendencies due to formation, were the first key to making the sack. Many fans are aware that the color of an offensive lineman's knuckles (lighter or more reddish) can vary depending on exactly where he is holding his weight and that this can lead to knowing before the snap whether the play will be a run or a pass. Strahan, like many others, used film to discover far more than that. One quarterback (who is still playing) claps his hands before a passing play if he's in the shotgun. Certain linemen turn their heads to one side unconsciously. There are as many in the NFL as their are in poker. In both games, it's up to the superior player to discover what they are and what they mean.

An example came in the contests against Strahan's Giants' division rival Philadelphia Eagles and their huge (330 lb) left tackle, Jon Runyan. Strahan had studied Runyan exhaustively, and had learned some things that made theirs an unequal matchup. Runyan, for example, would leave his foot straight with the heel slightly up if he was going to man block straight ahead. He also left his heel high if he was dropping back to pass-block. If his heel was on the ground and turned in, Runyan was going to go down inside and if the foot was flat and the heel turned out, he would step out to reach block. Strahan had learned to read him like a book.

Not surprisingly, Strahan gave Runyan fits. In a single game in 2001, Strahan notched 3.5 sacks against Donovan McNabb before halftime. By the third quarter, Runyan didn't have a clue as to how he was to stop #92, who was on his way to his record-setting year's total of 22.5. If Doom wants to break that record - and to continue to play at this level over the next decade - he'll be talking to other rushers and hunkering down with a lot of film each week. Victory goes to the prepared, over and over again. It's a lesson that can't be overstated.

Job 2 - What's Your Plan?

Every poker player knows that misdirection can be a key to a match, and many of the matchups within the game at the NFL level can be much he same way. Coaches will use a formation that is well known, but will run a new pay off of it at a crucial moment. Earlier this year, Brandon Marshall changed a hitch route to a go route against the Dallas Cowboys and turned an 8-yard gain into a TD. In any one-on-on matchup during a game, if one player can convince the other that he'll be moving in one direction, he can gain the advantage by changing to another. It happens within every game.

Strahan had a plan of action that he liked to use during games that used both technique and psychology to gain advantage. His first 4 pass rushes would almost inevitably be bull-rushes - using his strength, one on one, to try and overpower the lineman who was unenviably tasked with stopping him. Strahan believed that if you beat a man with a speed move early on, he will respect your speed but if you overpower him you'll create a psychological advantage that can be used in a variety of ways over the rest of the game. The lineman will expect more power rushes and can be taken out of the play when you begin to open up your own book of moves. The results - 141.5 sacks over 216 games - speak for themselves.

On his fifth rush, most lineman are preparing themselves for a power move by squatting back slightly, sitting their weight down and back and reaching out with their arms. At that moment, Strahan would chop their hands, reach for their outside shoulder and swing around them. The lineman would be in no position to shift his weight and interfere with the maneuver. After that, the lineman was often at Strahan's mercy. If he moved to protect the outside, Strahan was already clubbing him and spinning inside. Perhaps the best example of this came in Strahan's final game, Super Bowl XLII against New England. Nick Kaczur, according to Strahan, "...didn't know what to expect". Kaczur wasn't the only one, but this example went a long way towards granting the Giants their Super Bowl Victory.

One of the areas where Dumervil has a substantial advantage over most players is that his height/strength ratio is unusual - for a man less than 6 feet tall, he's extremely powerful. That strength, combined with balance and an unusual ability to find his opponent's "tipping point" are among the things that has set Doom apart from many other players at the same position. Big, sinewy hands, an ability to get them onto the lineman before he is grabbed, a tenacious grip and a talent for upsetting another player's balance are among the many keys to standing out at the rush linebacker position.

By the way, having a tell can also hurt the defender. When the San Francisco 49ers were matched up against the NY Giants during the Lawrence Taylor days, they were slated to meet in the playoffs. Head Coach Bill Walsh noted that Taylor had a short series of tells when he was planning on rushing the quarterback. Taylor really didn't care if people knew what he was going to do - he'd flop his hands around, wave his arms and generally, as Giants defensive back Beasley Reese would put it, act "...like a cop putting a siren on top of his car." Walsh used that to the 49ers' advantage - he had left guard Dan Ayers, at 6'5", 270 lb (Taylor, although incredibly strong, fast and agile, was 6'3" and 237 lb by comparison, according to pro-football-reference.com) drop back and to the outside when Taylor prepared to rush, cutting him off before he could reach Joe Montana. This maneuver would cost the Giants in the 1981 Divisional Round. Ayers liked rodeos, calf roping and also enjoyed throwing a rope around a tractor tire and dragging it through freshly plowed fields for fun. He was strong and agile enough to slow Taylor since he had sufficient notice that LT was coming. Although those signs of LT's intentions had simply created fear in the past, in this case LT's tells worked against him. The 49ers won easily.

Job 3 - Knowing Where the Quarterback Will Be

Like the first one, this principle also requires a lot of time in the film room. Even when he's beaten his lineman or TE, Doom has to get to the QB before he can either throw the ball away or escape out of the pocket. Both can be rendered moot by learning where the quarterback will move to when he feels the pressure of the defensive rush. Each player is different but all have tendencies to one extent or another.

Some quarterbacks like to run with the ball. Those are the players who think, "Pass, pass, no ,RUN!" Although such players, including a spectrum from Michael Vick to Jay Cutler, will move to wherever they think there is an opening, most of them will prefer to move in one direction or another. Players like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will move more within the pocket, but they, too, have tendencies - generally, they like to step up within the pocket. Last season, Matt Cassel liked to pull down the ball and run up the middle when pressured. After 47 sacks, you could hardly blame him, but by knowing where he would usually run to, the rush linebacker could maneuver his lineman so that he would break off on a bull rush suddenly and spin to the inside, cutting down the QB before he could escape. Some quarterbacks are a little slower to break from the pocket, or slower afoot (Kyle Orton is one of these) and those players can often be taken down from behind. The rusher can't take his angle too deeply, permitting the QB to step up into the pocket; and he can't let the angle go too shallow, permitting the QB to step back and to the outside.

The secret here, according to Strahan, is to keep the passer on your inside shoulder. If the QB likes to step up, you try to aim your rush so that you end up 2-3 yards from the line of scrimmage. If you watch a lot of film, many rushers fail to contact the QB because they are being ridden to the rear by the linemen (especially in a short-drop situation) or are being cut off as they attempt to go more inside, between the QB and the LOS. The rusher needs to know ahead of time where he expects the QB to be as the play finishes and to try and get there first. Obviously, factors such as whether a QB is using a 3-, 5- or 7-step drop also makes a great deal of difference in planning your attack. If the QB is throwing a lot of 'smoke' (hot), hitch, out and slant routes with the 3-step drop, you have to plan your finishing location to take that into account. If you're looking at other routes, ones that break the usual 12.5 yards from the LOS, you've got more time to achieve pressure.

By the way, this also illustrates the interaction among the different defensive positions. If a CB is playing off coverage, many QBs will audible to a 3-step drop using one of the four I listed (often the 'hot' or 'smoke' route, although terminology varies), the rushers will have to know the coverage the CBs will be playing to plan their own attacks in order to create the most disruption or success.

Job 4 - Tackling the QB

During the Broncos/Giants game, with 6:29 remaining in the 2nd quarter, Denver had NY backed up nearly to their own end zone. Anticipating a pass, Andre' Goodman suddenly dove in on a cornerback blitz. He caught Eli Manning in the end zone, but he didn't make the tackle cleanly. He was able to pull Manning down, but not before Eli had thrown the ball away out of bounds. The play still stopped NY, but it cost the Broncos 2 points plus the ball.

Tackling technique is a difficult issue in the NFL. Proper technique in wrapping up and bring the man down is especially important when rushing the quarterback because those situations really give you two opportunities. The first is for the strip - if you are coming up from behind the QB, he may have his hand struck before he even knows that a defender is there. Secondly, even if the ball is not stripped, there is a chance for negative yardage by making the tackle before the QB can get rid of the ball. And third, of course, is the opportunity like the one mentioned here, where the defender can put points on the board for a safety if he can tackle the QB cleanly and pin his arms to his body as the tackle is made.

Strahan managed just such a move in the thrid quarter of the same SB mentioned above against NE - he fired out of his stance, blew past Kaczur and wrapped up Tom Brady before the QB could dump the ball off. Strahan swears that he recalls yelling loudly, "Tom, do not throw the ball!. I got you! I got you!" And he did.

If Doom is going to break Strahan's record - whether this year or any other - he'll need to master his own set of rules. It's likely that he'll start with the ones listed here, though, and add some others. For instance, Doom can still learn a lot from another sack artist who has played in the league for a bit longer - Jared Allen. Since coming into the league in 2004, there has been no one with more sacks (70) than Allen. Allen uses a whole variety of sack moves to get to the quarterback. He uses the rip, a pure-speed rush, a bull rush, a two-hand rush, a single-hand rush, and a modified swim move in which he pulls at the top of the tackle's shoulder pads. In this highlight reel, he demonstrates all of these moves: The only type of rush that Allen doesn't generally use is the spin move.

There are two other things to like about Allen. The first is that, despite his "mullet' persona, he studies film quite a bit. In fact, before facing Chicago this year, he mentioned several times that he was going to go back and watch Rams games in order to get ready to face Orlando Pace:

"I've had some success against him..he's getting older, but the guy still has a resume that's quite impressive. I'll go back and watch tape of how I played against him when I was with Kansas City."

The other thing one has to like about Allen is his frequency for strip sacks. He has 3 strip sacks in 2009 and 19 forced fumbles over his career, most of which have come on sacks. From these estimates, about 1 out of every 4 of Allen's sacks result in a strip and/or fumble. It's clear that when he reaches the quarterback, he's thinking about getting the ball.

Dumervil is no slouch as a pass rusher but he would do well to add some more moves to his arsenal so that he doesn't become predictable with his speed rush. He must study all of the tackles he will face extensively in the film room--as we are sure he does--as well as mining the knowledge of everyone around him who has been up against those same tackles. Whether this year or another, the sack record may yet be under attack by Dumervil. If he successfully brings it down, it will be a tribute to all that he has learned from those who played the game before he did.

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 14

TJ Johnson — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

10 days ago: Denver Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton (8) throws over Indianapolis Colts defensive tackle Keyunta Dawson, right, in the first quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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"What did you say, Stats Champion? I'll beat you like a dog, a dog, you fool!" --Clubber Lang

I pity the fool that believes in league parity.

Let's be honest. Outside of a few games, Week 14 was a complete bore. The winning teams won by an average of 15 points. While the storyline of the two undefeated teams continued to be compelling, most of the games were as forgettable as a JaMarcus Russell seam pass or a Jay Cutler trip to the red zone. Roger Goodell should have donated some of his TV revenues back to charity. At least fans would have felt better about the six hours of their lives they won't be getting back.

However, we did learn something about the Denver Broncos. They stand more than a puncher's chance in the playoffs.

Welcome to another round of The Stats That Don't Lie, your statistical Mister T. These are the stats that hit below the belt. They are the stats that never have to go to the judges. In short, they beat you like a dog, fool. As always they are Turnovers, Field Position, Time of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

10,000-Foot View

We first begin with my favorite visual of the Broncos season - turnover margin. This time, I restricted the visual to the games since the bye week. Honestly, cramming 13 weeks of data was getting tough.

As I did last week, I wanted to illustrate how the turnovers from the box score can be a little deceiving. Therefore, I included both the turnover margin that includes interceptions and fumbles in orange and the turnover margin that includes interceptions, fumbles, and turnovers on downs in blue. The latter also included missed field goals as was suggested previously.

It's worth repeating what I wrote last week in looking at the two stats side by side:

...stats geeks have argued for decades that turnovers on downs should be included in the turnover statistics. The thinking is that no matter the method of turning the ball over (fumble, interception, or downs), it still has the same basic result: the drive is dead. Clearly, there is a higher value in an interception or fumble because of the inherent possibility of a score, but a turnover on downs stops your drive just the same.

Applying this to the Indianapolis-Denver game, one immediately notices that the recorded turnover margin is, well, a missed uppercut. The box score shows that Denver won the turnover margin battle by two. But in reality, Denver turned the ball over on downs on three drives during the game and also missed a field goal. So that swings Denver's positive turnover margin to the negative. Many have commented about the concern over the play-calling on 4th down. These "real" turnover numbers lend credence to this view. Not converting these 4th downs (and the 3rd downs that preceded them) on short yardage killed Denver in this game, so much so that it was the equivalent of losing the turnover battle. And, unlike Indianapolis or New Orleans, Denver is a team that needs to win the turnover battle.

To this game (and in particular, 3rd downs) we shall return again, but let's get to our team rankings.

Team Rankings

Here's where the Broncos stack up against the rest of the league after Week 14. As always, remember these are averages/game (in my mind a better measure than aggregate numbers):

I'm not letting the Broncos off the hook on 3rd downs, where they rank 23rd in the league. This is just an atrocious stat given that teams like the Detroit Lions are more effective. If for some reason the Broncos don't make the playoffs, we can all point to 3rd downs as the reason why. While I'll leave others to speculate on the tactical reasons for this (bad play calling, a weak offensive line, Moreno's cuts and reads), it's outrageous that an 8-5 team is hovering at around 35% on 3rd downs--the Kool-Aid has gone just a tad bitter.

If you doubt the power of 3rd downs (or my power of cherry picking stats to make my case), then simply take a quick peek at which two teams are #1 and #2 in this statistic. My oh my, it happens to be the two teams who are 13-0.

Speaking of the Saints and Colts, everyone in the mainstream media continues their enchantment with these teams going undefeated. They very well may do so, but historically, they are not as good as teams from the past have been. As it currently stands, New Orleans has a points/points against ratio of 1.70. Indy's is 1.65. Historically, over the last 25 years, this would put these teams between 13-14 wins. The 1985 Bears hold the record for the largest points/points against ratio at 2.03. And they still lost a game. Count me with the dwindling crowd of naysayers.

In case you were wondering, the Broncos' ratio is currently 1.11, which projects them at 10 wins. And strangely enough, 10 wins coincides with Kyle Orton's historical winning percentage. Given Denver's schedule this year (its opponents currently hold an overall record of 91-78), 10 wins would be a good accomplishment.

Other positives for the Broncos? Their field position is getting better, they (generally) continue to be smart with the football, and one of their receivers is doing his best impersonation of Ivan Drago. He will break you.

I once again included average-turnover-margin per game in these stats. This is because I can't resist piling on Tony Romo and the Cowboys. While they are tied for 4th in giveaways, they are 14th in turnover margin, and actually have a net-negative-turnover margin/game. Romo can volunteer for holding duties all he wants, but he might want to tell his defense to force some turnovers, first.

Turnover margin also begs me to ask the question, "If the season ended today, who would you rather play, New England or Cincinnati?" The Broncos have beaten both, and it looks like they will be on the road against one of these teams. From the rankings above, give me the Bengals. They are slightly worse on 3rd downs and give up the ball slightly more than the Patriots. But their average turnover margin/game is barely positive. This tells me they can be beaten. And if the Broncos are like the rest of us, I am sure they want to prove that Week 1 was no fluke.

Did I mention that Brady and Belichick scare the hell out of me in the playoffs?

The I-can't-believe-you-creeped-up-on-me award should certainly go to the Packers. Their rankings in each of the categories is top ten. Their average-turnover-margin per game is a whopping 1.38, which is much higher than that of New Orleans. Although they have a tougher schedule in the next three weeks than the Vikings, they are peaking at the right time. If the season were only a few games longer, the Vikings could have had real problems. Expect those problems, however, to begin in the playoffs with whoever the Packers match up against.

For those that are already looking past the Raiders (like me), and are wondering how Philly is stacking up, it's clear that game will be incredibly difficult for the Broncos. The Eagles can score points (as witnessed this week against the Giants), but more importantly, their average turnover margin/game is a stellar 1.15. DeSean Jackson has also allowed them to rank 5th in field position, beginning on average at the 31.19-yard line.

Last week, I stated that I didn't think Jacksonville was playoff material because their average turnover margin/game was negative and their points differential was -48. After this week, that number climbed to -52. Look for them to be overtaken by either Baltimore or even Miami (if they get past Tennessee this week).

Lastly, I've never been accused of being self-actualized, so I continue to get my jollies off of blasting Jay Cutler. This week is no different. Although the Bears have slipped slightly in their field-position rankings, I continue to ask myself how good they could be if Jay Cutler's name was Kyle Orton. Oh, and if Jay's right arm wasn't a drinking fountain for interceptions.

Week 14 Summaries

There isn't a lot more to be said about the Broncos game in addition to the turnovers, so I'll just point out a few things. First, Indy was again over 50% on 3rd downs for the game, while Denver hovered around its season average of 35%. We all knew that they needed to beat the Colts in this category to stand a chance. Second, time of possession had little value in the game. As the Broncos witnessed during the 1st quarter, it didn't take Manning long to score. In fact, on the three quick touchdowns that put Denver in the hole 21-0, the Colts' average drive lasted about 4:27 and their average yards per play was 6.7. For the Colts, a drive that lasts over 4 minutes is an eternity. For the rest of the league, it seems rather hasty. Lastly, even though Denver did a good job with overall field position during the game, their average starting field position on kickoffs was the 18-yard line. I am begging Josh McDaniels to let Eddie Royal become a slot receiver, not a kick returner.

A few other games of note: First, New Orleans-Atlanta. Yes, Sean Payton's fake-field-goal call was a bit strange. But if the Saints don't go 8-of-12 on 3rd downs, they don't win this game. Both teams only had 8 total drives for the entire game (compare this to 13 in the Denver-Indy game). Drives were at a premium - which meant, so were 3rd downs. Going 66% on 3rd downs was absolutely critical - even more important given that Atlanta was 50%. If only this kind of efficiency could rub off on Denver.

I wanted to highlight San Diego-Dallas also. I hate Philip Rivers. I absolutely hate the guy. But Kyle Orton would do well to study how he shuffles in the pocket. While Peyton Manning is the king of shuffling in the pocket, Rivers isn't far behind. Also, statistically, Dallas, you can't go 13% on 3rd downs (Kansas City territory) while your opponent goes 42% and expect to win an NFL game.

As an amusement, I highlight the Arizona-San Francisco game. I was really hoping that Arizona would come back in this game after committing 5 turnovers in the first half. In the last two years, I've been wanting to analyze an NFL game in which the turnover margin was -5, and yet a team managed to win. But the pesky turnovers kept giving the 49ers a short field, and even an Alex Smith-led team can win this type of game. So I'll continue my sorrowful wait.

The Summaries

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

6 teams had 0 turnovers. 2 won (33%); For the season, 62/80 (78%)
12 teams had 1 turnover. 7 won (58%); For the season, 71/121 (59%)
5 teams had 2 turnovers. 3 won (60%); For the season, 51/115 (44%)
5 teams had 3 turnovers. 4 won (80%); For the season, 20/61 (33%)
2 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 4/27 (15%)
2 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 0/12 (0%)

Week 14 - Big Picture

The team that won the turnover battle won 11 of 16 games played (69%).
In the previous category, remove the ties (4 games) and this changes to 44%
The team that won the time of possession battle won 13 of the 16 games played (63%).
The team that had better third-down efficiency won 12 of the 16 games played (81%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 14 of the 16 games played (88%).
There were 5 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In all 5, the same team won on the scoreboard (100%). For the season, this stat is 67 out of 72 games. In only 3 games, however, has a team won outright in all four categories (no ties in the turnover battle) and lost.
The winning teams this week averaged 1.56 turnovers, 31:27 in time of possession, 42.23% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 34.73-yard line.

Top 5 in Week 14:

Top 5 in giveaways: Pittsburgh, Cleveland, New Orleans, Carolina, Jacksonville, and Dallas all tied with 0.
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.San Francisco 2.New Orleans 3.Miami 4.New York Giants 5.New England

Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.New Orleans 2.Minnesota 3.Indy 4.Miami 5. San Francisco/Atlanta
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.Green Bay 2.Baltimore 3.San Francisco 4.New York Jets 5.Minnesota

Running Totals, Season (through 14 weeks):

208 games have been played this season
79.81% were won by the team with less turnovers (counting ties as wins)
66.35% with a better time of possession
67.79% by the team who won on 3rd down
71.63% by the team that won the field-position battle.

14-week League Averages:

14-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.70

14-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:10 (thanks to OT games)

14-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.62%

14-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.87-yard line

The Look Ahead

Looking ahead to Oakland, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd-Down Efficiency

Denver 1.46 30:10 29.10 35.13%

Oakland 2.00 27:39 27.14 28.91%

Do I even need to say any more? If Denver loses this game - especially at home - they really have about as much business being in the playoffs as John Clayton has being at a Sturgis bike rally. Oakland is dead meat.

Denver should dominate this team and TKO them by the 2nd quarter. The last game was 23-3, and I would consider this close. There is absolutely no reason why Denver shouldn't send Al's boys home to contemplate Tom Cable's imminent firing and another top-5 draft pick. This week's prediction for Oakland: pain! I pity the fool that thinks otherwise.

Hail, Kyle Orton!!

Last stat: 100% (percentage chance that Al Davis really is a vampire).

SB Nation - Kyle Orton

Broncos Thoughts and Musings - Fish in a Barrel

Holiday special: Order your Jay Cutler No. 7.9 jersey and get three INTs thrown in for free!

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 15

The Big Picture & 3rd Downs

3rd Downs - Hooked On a Feeling

Stuck in the Middle With You on 3rd-and-Short

The Offensive Line - Hold It...A Little Big Longer

Team Rankings:

Week 15 - The Games

The Summaries

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

Week 15 - Big Picture

Top 5 in Week 15:

Running Totals, Season (through 15 weeks):

15-week League Averages:

15-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.71 15-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:10 (thanks to OT games) 15-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.79% 15-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.91-yard line

The Look Ahead

Philadelphia Eagles opponents preview - Denver Broncos

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Potent Quotables - Raiders 20 - Broncos 19

DENVER BRONCOS HEAD COACH JOSH MCDANIELS

QB KYLE ORTON

S DAVID BRUTON

TE DANIEL GRAHAM

OLB/DE MARIO HAGGAN

WR BRANDON MARSHALL

Oakland Raiders Postgame Recap: Raiders 20, Broncos 19

Weekly Recap Poll: Who was the Oakland Raiders player of the game?

Sunday Morning Scout--Oakland at Denver Edition

STRATEGY

PERSONNEL

By The Numbers

MHR Chalk Talk - Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos '09

Denver is a Very Good Team

The Oakland Raiders

Keys to the Game

Where do we go from here?

And now, for a parting shot...

Which is the bigger overstatement?

Check YOUR facts sir.

Jamarcus Russell, QB of the Oakland Raiders....

Doom and the Pursuit of History

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 14

10,000-Foot View

Team Rankings

Week 14 Summaries

The Summaries

Week 14 - Big Picture

Top 5 in Week 14:

Running Totals, Season (through 14 weeks):

14-week League Averages:

14-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.70 14-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:10 (thanks to OT games) 14-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.62% 14-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.87-yard line

The Look Ahead

15-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.71

15-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:10 (thanks to OT games)

15-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.79%

15-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.91-yard line

14-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.70

14-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:10 (thanks to OT games)

14-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.62%

14-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.87-yard line