SB Nation - John St. Clair

The Future of Matt Hasselbeck is the Future of the Seattle Seahawks, Pt. 3

John Morgan — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 00:59:19 -0000

More photos » by Alex Brandon - AP

In which Seattle signs Jason Campbell to outperform Matt Hasselbeck and maybe he does.

I hope Mike Holmgren signs with Cleveland. I have selfish interest, namely Seattle not re-signing Holmgren, but I have more noble interests as well. Cleveland has one of the youngest, most talented offensive lines in the NFL. It starts Joe Thomas at left tackle, Eric Steinbach at left guard and Alex Mack at center. Right guard Hank Fraley and right tackle John St. Clair are interchangeable organizational soldier types. It doesn't have great skill position talent, but that's where Holmgren shines. He finds scheme appropriate players that can excel behind a dominant offensive line. Holmgren is also an expert at developing young quarterbacks.

Why start with a tangent? In this scenario, Seattle ditches Matt Hasselbeck and signs free agent Jason Campbell. Tim Ruskell is out and his departure hints at a potential rebuild, but if Seattle can win some down the stretch, and especially if Seattle can win some down the stretch because of its Ruskell built defense, the Seahawks might adapt certain Ruskell ideals even without Ruskell.

Ruskell was risk adverse. He had a narrow definition of "his guy". His aversion to risk may have served him well, but his narrow definition did not. Consider Deon Butler. Ruskell traded into the third round to select Butler because Butler was "his guy". Butler dripped Ruskell: Four-year starter at a major conference powerhouse, undersized but fast, coachable, hard working and quietly productive. Ruskell conflated "his guy" with risk aversion and overpaid for a risky player. Despite his track record and accolades, Butler could bust because he is overmatched by NFL competition.

Ruskell spent big to get his guy, but his guy was never less risky than Juaquin Iglesias, Mike Thomas, Brian Hartline, Louis Murphy, Austin Collie or Johnny Knox - the six receivers selected after Butler. And only Iglesias has underperformed Butler. Ruskell projected his internal bias on the players he drafted. It rarely conflicted with his risk aversion, but when it did, it often spelled failure.

Campbell is a prime target for any risk adverse general manager. His connections to Auburn's unbeaten season might have spoken to Ruskell's personal bias, but his standing as a young, established NFL quarterback speaks to rational roster construction. Campbell has the tools of an NFL quarterback - arm strength, size, mobility - and those tools are NFL tested. He has adapted to multiple playbooks and played near league average football on some very poorly constructed offenses. As we've seen in Chicago and Denver, the quarterback may be the center and most essential part of any NFL offense, but it is not more important than the other ten men that take the field.

This Plan Might Be Enacted Thus:

Seattle trades or cuts Hasselbeck. It wishes him well, gives lip service to rebuilding and is satisfied to see him sign with Cleveland. Hasselbeck joins muscle milk buddy Brady Quinn and assumes the Trent Dilfer role.

Walter Jones retires.

Seattle cuts Patrick Kerney, Deion Branch and Seneca Wallace.

That gives the Seahawks money to burn. Seattle signs Campbell to a frontloaded contract with a third-year buyout clause. Campbell is playing through the last year of his rookie contract and though he's rich, he's not quarterback rich. Seattle buys maneuverability and Campbell's services by stacking his 2010 salary with zeroes.

Seattle could still be a player in free agency after signing Campbell. It will attempt to fill holes and free itself to draft best available talent throughout the draft.

Signing Campbell and cutting dead weight frees Seattle to make a big splash in the NFL draft. It has money to afford another early first round prospect and the picks to trade up. It could take a centerpiece player on defense like Ndamukong Suh. By releasing Hasselbeck and signing Campbell, the burden falls off the offense. Seattle buys itself time. If Campbell struggles in Seattle's still wrecked 2010 offense, he's young and can be released. Campbell has a bad reputation. He hasn't earned Seahawks fan loyalty and we are unlikely to experience the same kind of revulsion and outrage watching him battered to bones as we do watching Hasselbeck torn asunder.

Campbell is signed as a stopgap+. The Seahawks compliment the signing with a project quarterback selected sometime in 2010's epic quarterback draft. A looming correction to the onerous rookie pay scale is encouraging players to declare, and while the draft lacks a Matt Ryan or Peyton Manning, it might be the deepest quarterback draft in modern history. Colt McCoy, Zac Robinson, Sean Canfield, Ryan Mallett, Dan LeFevour, Pat Devlin and Tony Pike will all likely fall deep into the second day. Seattle will have an established starter for 2010 to test its system and offense, and a talented young quarterback developing behind the scenes.

How it works: Seattle successfully moves into the top of the draft and selects a once in a generation defensive talent. That helps push Seattle's cheap, young and talented, but by no means dominant, defense from potential to production. The team is not a contender again in 2010, but it's close.

Campbell outperforms Hasselbeck. He's younger and healthier and continues to play like a league average quarterback. Campbell could also breakout. Seattle is set for either possibility. It builds its offense towards the future by continuing Ruskell's habit of drafting late and mid-round offensive talent and seeing who shakes out. The major rebuild will wait until next offseason. 2010 is about seeing what they have and what they need, something a diminished Hasselbeck has made difficult to impossible this season.

The young defense provides excitement and gives the team a direction and identity. Campbell's arm opens the run game and Seattle executes the grind and smother attack Jim Mora and Greg Knapp seek. The team takes a flier on another young back (or two) and someone sticks, filling out a balanced and productive if unspectacular committee of backs. It's Ground Chuck all over again.

How it fails: Seattle cuts Hasselbeck but doesn't sign Campbell, or Seattle retains Hasselbeck and projects to have one of the worst offenses in football in 2010, or Seattle signs Campbell but Campbell performs no better than Hasselbeck and Seattle's young quarterback is prematurely forced into action. The meat of this is that Seattle does not spend enough on its offense and that offense again undermines the defense.

Contrarily, the defense never steps up. It continues to stifle the run but still cannot stop the pass. Seattle's defensive savior is a rookie and like Aaron Curry, more potential than player. The defense is average, but no better and as the offense putters towards the bottom of the league, the not-good-enough defense shoulders the consequences. Seattle changes the face of its failures but not its failures and what little can be salvaged from Ruskell's roster is older, more expensive and closer to free agency. Campbell is signed to stave off a full rebuild and does. He plays two seasons of league average football and is cleared when Seattle must clean house in 2012.

As Browns Take on Bears, is Chicago's Future Really in Good Shape?

Chris Pokorny — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 18:52:36 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Jay Cutler could have been a Brown in the offseason, but I didn't lose any sleep in not acquiring him.

Browse more photos »

Browns vs. Bears - Game Preview

I've never understood all of the hype surrounding QB Jay Cutler.

Sure, he has shown the potential to be a very productive quarterback. But there are other games where he'll make decisions throughout the game that prevent the offense from doing much of anything. For all of the potential he has had the past several years, he has failed to move on to the "next level", which is why I was thrilled when Cutler was not dealt to the Cleveland Browns early in the offseason. If you recall, the Browns were one of the teams reportedly interested in the former disgruntled Bronco. When Chicago landed Cutler, here's what they had to give up:

First Round Pick in 2009
Third Round Pick in 2009
First Round Pick in 2010

The Denver Broncos have the media to thank for always touting Cutler as a top-tier quarterback ever since he was drafted. Beyond their victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Bears, especially including Cutler, have struggled against contending teams such as the Green Bay Packers, the Atlanta Falcons, and the Cincinnati Bengals. As efficient as Carson Palmer was last week against the Bears' defense, Cutler threw three interceptions in a 45-10 blowout. Earlier in the year, Mel Kiper stressed Cutler being overhyped:

"This guy was overhyped at the combine, he was overhyped at Senior Bowl week, he’s been overhyped before he was drafted. The media, they love Jay Cutler. Jay Cutler can do no wrong. I’ve been saying he’s overrated since day one. Everyone’s been pounding their chests saying, ‘Oh, I love Jay Cutler, I’m a genius.’ They have egg on their face now."

-Mel Kiper

Part of the problem? Cutler is stubborn, on and off the field. His stubbornness in Denver helped lead to his dismissal, and on the field, even if a receiver didn't run his route correctly or isn't open, he'll try to force it right at "the spot he's supposed to be." The Broncos are 6-0 under Kyle Orton, and the Minnesota Vikings are 5-1 under Brett Favre. Cutler might have the potential to be better than both of them, but right now, Orton and, believe it or not, Favre, have been effective game managers.

The Bears have always been known for their defense, and acquiring Cutler was an attempt to have dominance on both sides of the ball. Maybe they'll find receivers to better complement Cutler next year, but by then, they're going to have to start worrying about their lack of youth defensively.

The Browns didn't face Cutler in the preseason; he sat out the fourth exhibition game just as Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson did. Odds are in Cutler's favor that he'll rebound from last week's "off" performance and light it up against the Browns. Until Cutler starts leading his team to victory against the contending teams though, I'd probably take at least ten quarterbacks on my roster before I'd take him.

This isn't meant to say that Anderson (or Quinn) outweigh Cutler by any means; it's becoming clearer and clearer that neither quarterback will be considered long-term answers. Considering what the Bears have invested in Cutler though, if the Browns are able to find a solid quarterback in next year's draft, I'm not going to wish we had Cutler on our team instead. Maybe that'll change in the future, but three years of hype has gotten old real quick.

Running Game & Tight End

Matt Forte has seen his carries go down from last season. After averaging nearly 20 carries a game last season, that figure has dropped to 15 carries per game. I expected Forte's carries to increase this season, with Cutler being efficient by picking his spots to move the ball down the field and utilize some of the speed Chicago has in Devin Hester and Johnny Knox. The Bears rank 29th in the league this season running the football.

Greg Olsen should be the target that Cutler utilizes more often. The Bears need to start utilizing him in areas that aren't near the goal line.

The Right Tackle Swap

Even though a trade wasn't involved, the Browns and the Bears essentially swapped right tackles during the offseason. On the Browns is veteran John St. Clair; on the Bears is veteran Kevin Shaffer. Take your pick between the two, because I really don't see how either player can be measured as an upgrade.

The Bears' Adewale Ogunleye will be matched up against St. Clair on Sunday:

"It's going to be fun going against him,'' Ogunleye said. "I'm just going to say that he tries hard. He's the kind of guy that goes in every game and busts his ass, excuse me, busts his tail. He's the kind of guy that you want on your team, so he's a good guy."

The Bears have been held without a sack the past two games. The offensive line has remained one of the lone bright spots for the Browns, with the right side of the line even holding its own in recent weeks.

Tommie Harris Returning

The Bears were without DT Tommie Harris last week, and his absence was noted. With linebackers Brian Urlacher and Pisa Tinoisomoa out for the season, the Bears were outmatched against the Bengals. Having Harris back should improve the other units as well.

Tonight, I'll have another small preview of the Bears/Browns contest. Don't forget to check out rufio's midseason analysis of the Browns offense.

Poll

Do you think Jay Cutler has been overrated (note: "overrated" doesn't mean he's a "bad" quarterback)?

Yes, Cutler is Overrated

169 votes

No, Cutler is a Top QB

139 votes

308 votes | Poll has closed

Midseason Report: the Cleveland Browns' Offense

rufio — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 10:02:43 -0000

So far this season, our offense has scored 58 total points, for an average of 8.3 points/game. That simply isn't going to get the job done in the NFL.

At times, I have wanted to throw my TV out of my third floor window. At others, I have wanted to lace up my cleats to see if I can run a seam route better than Robert Royal.

Why exactly are we so bad? Where do we need to improve? Is there anything positive to take away from our offensive performance amidst the sea of ineffectiveness?

I finally got my hands on some game film, so I decided to take a look at this past Sunday's game against the Green Bay Packers. I will break down three plays that didn't work here, handing out blame to the guilty parties. Look for a breakdown of some plays we ran effectively to be posted Saturday night.

Play 1

This is a play we ran very effectively last year (check out my comment with screenshots). If all goes as planned, Josh Cribbs goes in motion and blocks down on a defender on the line of scrimmage, then LT Joe Thomas pulls around Cribbs, lead blocking along with FB Lawrence Vickers.

I love this play, as it suits our strengths. It allows Cribbs (a tough, physical player for his size who isn't afraid of contact) to catch someone off-guard and light them up. It allows Joe Thomas (a ridiculously athletic man for his size) get out into space and engulf a smaller defender. It allows Vickers (an above-average athlete at FB) to lead block in space, and it runs away from one of our offensive weaknesses; the right side of the line.

The problem with this play starts with the fact that we have RB Jamal Lewis in the game over RB Jerome Harrison. Harrison is much faster than Lewis. Sure, the defense might know we like to run outside with Harrison, but who cares what they know if they can't stop us?

The second problem is that for whatever reason, Cribbs isn't exactly sure who to block:

You can see him ready to block but not taking anyone on above. It was a bit of a weird front, as Green Bay had moved the FS Nick Collins up to the line of scrimmage bewteen ROLB Clay Matthews and RDE Cullen Jenkins. I have a feeling that Cribbs thought he was to block the SS, who TE Greg Estandia took on immediately after the snap.

In this situation, it is better for Cribbs to block the "wrong" guy, but to be wrong decisively. Instead he waits and waits, and even lets RILB A.J. Hawk run right by him...

...and make the tackle.

Who's at fault?

QB: hard to blame Anderson on this play, as it was a solid play call, and could have resulted in a solid gain if DA did everything exactly as he did above.
WRs: Cribbs needs to block someone. Even if he gets the "wrong guy", Vickers or Thomas can adjust an pick up whoever Cribbs lets through.
OL: every lineman pretty much did their job. The play could have resulted in a solid gain even if they did everything the same as above.
RB: I can't put the blame on Lewis for this play. A faster/better back could have gotten more yards, but when you are getting hit behind the line of scrimmage as a RB, someone else messed up.
Coaching: I know that if the coaches always used Lewis to run inside and Harrison outside we'd be predictable. But is this alternative any better? We simply don't have uber-versatile players right now, so why not put the players we do have in position to succeed? Harrison is good at running outside. Lewis is not. Put Harrison in for this play, and then if teams start catching on, throw the changeup.

Play 2

Early in the second quarter, we ran another play that epitomized what is wrong with our offense.

I like that our coaching staff tried something different, lining Hank Fraley up at Tight End. The problem with the personnel package we used, however, is that it failed to create the mismatches we wanted. Fraley does one thing as a TE, and that is block.

Green Bay knows the pass is less of a threat--especially to the bottom of the screen--with Fraley at TE. Because of this, they are able to walk their SS up to put 8 men in the box:

Against an eight man front, we only have seven blockers available (5 OL, 1 TE, 1 FB), which means the defense will have an unblocked player available to make the tackle even if we are able to make and sustain all our blocks. This is why Bernie Kosar always advocates throwing the ball against an 8 man front when he is the color man during our preseason broadcasts.

DA can reasonably suspect that Green Bay is in man coverage because CBs Charles Woodson and Al Harris are lined up directly over WRs Brian Robiskie and Mohammed Massaquoi. Facing man coverage and an 8 man front, we should be in great position to pass the ball. DA can guess with some confidence that Green Bay is playing Cover-1, facing anywhere from a 4-6 man rush. So, DA checks to a pass:

Because of our substitution of Fraley at TE, we aren't in much better position to pass the ball. Green Bay is able to send 6 rushers while still playing man-to-man on all of our receiving options and having deep "centerfield" safety help.

After the snap, rookie WRs Massaquoi and Robiskie struggle to get off the line of scrimmage against press coverage. Further exacerbating the delay in getting open, both WR are running relatively slow developing routes. We are running the "switch" concept (see WRs X and Y, ignore the others):

When DA hits the back of his drop, the WRs are no where close to where they need to be. Instead of looking them off and checking down to FB Lawrence Vickers, who is open and could probably pick up a solid gain, Anderson continues to stare down the WRs.

Compounding the problem is the fact that DA doesn't have another player running a route because RB Jamal Lewis is pass blocking and our other eligible receiver is OL Hank Fraley, who isn't ever a threat to catch a pass.

After hesitating, DA fires a dangerous pass almost right to LB Nick Barnett. He was lucky this wasn't a pick 6.

Who's at fault?

QB: DA can not throw this high risk, low reward pass--at worst it should have been a throwaway over Vickers' head and out of bounds. He also probably shouldn't be checking to a pass with 6 OL in the game. Lastly, when he saw our WRs struggle to get open, he should have looked them off and checked down much sooner. Additionally; why is this a 5-step drop and not a 7- or even 9-step drop for such long-developing routes? If he knows the blitz is coming and that he has to get rid of the ball quickly, why is it not a 3-step drop with quicker developing routes?
RB: Lewis may have whiffed on his block. I can't tell if he was supposed to chip and then release in to the flat or not. Either way, he could have slowed the pass rush more.
WR: They need to get off the press. It doesn't look as bad real-time as it does in the stills, but they could still help Anderson out.
OL: they picked up the 6 man pressure fairly well.
Coaching staff: Why simply sub Fraley in the game at TE? It's a pretty clear signal that we are going to run. Furthermore, it's not at all versatile (something that the coaches want our offense to be) because Fraley is only in there to block. It takes our offense from 5 receivers down to 4. Why not go with an unbalanced line instead, leaving a TE on the field? Why not go with another TE instead of 2 WR, creating a mismatch (our power vs. their speed)? Why is there not a better "hot" route on this play, with the blitz looming?

Play3

We come out in a singleback shotgun formation with WR Mohammed Massaquoi at the top of the screen, and WRs Brian Robiskie and Chansi Stuckey, along with TE Greg Estandia in a trips formation at the bottom of the screen.

DA sends Estandia in motion across C Alex Mack, and then back to his original place in the formation:

This isn't just motion for the sake of motion; it is designed to tell us something about the coverage. Green Bay shows that they are playing man coverage on Estandia because LB Brandon Chillar follows Estandia in motion. This implies that the Packers are also playing man coverage on our other receivers.

Off the snap, Estandia stays in to block, but our protection scheme is such that he has to cross paths with RT John St. Clair to pick up the blitzing LB Chillar (who was trying to deceive us and is actually blitzing, not covering Estandia). Initially, I thought Mack blew our pass protection because he wasn't blocking anyone off the snap...

but Mack actually knew exactly what was coming, as Green Bay's rushers stunted. Anderson, knowing he has Massaquoi basically one-on-one, stares him down. Massaquoi has a step, but Stuckey seems to be getting open behind S Atari Bigby.

I have to blame the play design here. Against Cover-1, there is usually a LB or S playing a short zone in the middle of the field (a "robber"). To me, it's clear that if Stuckey were running an out or a corner route here, he would be open for the 1st down, as there is no help in those areas of the field.

In 2007 when DA was at his best, he was trying to fit balls in to tight spaces, and he was throwing some jump balls (high risk), but he was also taking shots downfield (high reward). He goes that route again here, but he makes a really weak effort. At this point, he has held on to the ball long enough that he knows he is probably going to get hit. Instead of stepping up into the pocket and taking that hit ("like a man"), he tries to avoid the contact...

...and because he doesn't step into his throw, he ends up grossly underthrowing Massaquoi...

...right off of Al Harris' foot. I don't need to talk about how bad of a throw that is, but it should be especially embarrassing because he wouldn't just take a hit for the benefit of the team.

Who's at fault?

QB: DA's arm is supposed to be his strengh. He needs to suck it up, step up, and take this hit.
WR: Stuckey is open, and Massaquoi has a step and a half on Al Harris. I can't see Robiskie's route after it's stem. A WR can always be more open.
RB: Jerome Harrison actually picks up a blitzing linebacker fairly well for a 210lb. man. He could have done a better job, but this play isn't on him.
OL: They could have done a better job, particularly RT John St. Clair. He does have to switch places with Estandia, making it tough to recover.
Coaching staff: I don't know if Estandia was supposed to stop his motion in the backfield and be lined up more like an H-back, but a switch like what happened shouldn't happen, especially on the right side where we are having enough problems pass blocking. K.I.S.S. Why is Stuckey running a square in/post? Here is another example of not putting our players in position to succeed; Harrison is the worst pass protecting back on our roster. Clearly, Green Bay was not worried about him catching the ball, so why put him in the game, only to have him do what he isn't good at doing? Why not have Lewis or Vickers in there to pass block?

Verdict

Here is where I place the blame, from least blame to most blame:

OL: At least in the Green Bay game, the pass protection wasn't bad. Maybe St. Clair really wanted DA to be the quarterback, because he didn't play anywhere near as bad as he used to with Quinn under center (see: Broncos game). He isn't the long-term answer, but I expect the line to continue to improve because of Mack and (hopefully) a healthy Rex Hadnot.
RB: Lewis certainly isn't what he used to be, but Harrison has shown he can be dangerous. Still, both our RB's weaknesses are being highlighted far too often, with their strengths being ignored or underutilized. I would love to be finding out what James Davis could do right now.
WR: Both Robi and MoMass will improve with time, and if they are going to excel in the NFL, they probably don't do so consistently this year. We lack a WR who can consistently get open against straight man or man-free coverage.
QB: He isn't getting much help from his wideouts or the play calling/play design, but DA looks like he is a step slow in reading the defense, he is forcing short throws that he shouldn't make, and he isn't utilizing his own strengths.
Coaching staff: Our players look undisciplined, confused, and out of position. Daboll looks like a jack of all trades but a master of none, his offense lacks any sort of coherence, and he looks like he is out-smarting himself. In my opinion, we should simplify our offense.

We should work three or four runs that we can run out of any formation and master them. We should take three or four passing concepts/route combinations and master those. Ideally, a few of the runs compliment a few of the passes (play actions with the same blocking patterns, etc,) and they'd compliment each other. Once we have the simple things down, then we can put in the wrinkles and the tricky pass protections and the counter punches. As it stands now, we have nothing to counter off of.

MHR Chalk Talk -- Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos

Steve Nichols — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 17:30:13 -0000

The Browns are a hard team for me to figure out. Some portions of their game looked good or bad in the preseason, then looked completely different in Week One. Some portions of their game varied widely from the first to the second half of that first regular season game, too. Even their offensive line varies (looks much better on the strong side of the field than the weak side).

But in fairness, how predictable are the Broncos? Kyle Orton didn't look too sharp in his first regular season game for Denver, failing to move the ball down the field much. On the other hand, he gave up zero interceptions and had a good completion rate. (Chicago fans got what Denver fans said they would - a QB that moves the ball down the field like a Pro Bowler, but gets interceptions at the end of drives instead of touchdowns). Denver's vaunted running game? Didn't materialize. Poor special teams coverage? Nope, the team did a solid job. Denver's defense looked better than last year by far, while the offense (still star-studded) looked plain.

In short, this is a matchup of two teams that are morphing before our eyes, and anything can happen. While I'm inclined to favor Denver, there are enough question marks that I don't think the game is a lock by any stretch.

Let's look further into the matchup, and see what is worth watching for...

Browns Offense vs Broncos Defense

The Browns passing offense against Denver's defense is my favorite matchup in terms of intrigue.

vs Doom vs Thomas (courtesy - NFL)

Elvis Dumervil is an elite pass rusher, and has beaten the best left tackles in the League. He faces Joe Thomas, who is an excellent player, and this is going to be a terrific battle. With the 5-2 look that Denver presents (DE - DG - NT - DG - DE and two true LBS), Denver can use the extra pass rusher to form schemes that force the OL to make hard decisions and this may help "Doom". The Browns will counter by using TEs in to block, and the entire Browns' passing offense will hinge on the success of the Browns' offensive line.

I wrote two to three years ago about how the FB is a position being slowly phased out of modern football, to be replaced with more TEs. (The end of this evolution is expected to be 3-TE sets). We'll see some of this theory in the Denver - Cleveland game, as both teams will heavily rely on two-TE or 3-WR sets. I don't expect to see a FB very much for either side.

So, given the coaching theory that 1 defensive lineman is equivelent to 1.5 O-Linemen (based on rules that allow D-Linemen to do more than their counterparts), we see 5 DLs for Denver (they run a 5-2) and 7 (two TEs) for Cleveland. Denver has 7.5 points (1.5 for each lineman) against 7, which are close odds. Denver's LBs shouldn't be a factor on most plays, as there are only really two true LBs on the field in the 5-2 to cover other responsibilities.

Now the key comes down to what Cleveland decides to do. Cleveland has three worthy receivers in Braylon Edwards (a good all-around WR) and Joshua Cribbs (a deep threat who is also a monster in the return game). Some would argue that Mike Furrey should get the start over Cribbs because he is a better all-around receiver. But Denver has an elite secondary, with future Hall of Fame-players Champ Bailey at CB and Brian Dawkins at FS. Denver also also has CB Andre' Goodman, who has been excellent since coming to Denver, as well as Renaldo Hill at SS. As if this isn't enough, Denver has depth at defensive back with rookie phenom CB Alphonso Smith and several players at safety.

If I'm Cleveland's offensive coordinator, I stick with Brady Quinn's strengths and the TEs. Quinn likes to throw to his TEs, and the coverage against even three-receiver sets should lean in Denver's favor. Cleveland should play two-TE sets to match the Denver front five, with the added threat of one or both TEs going into quick routes. This forces D.J. Williams and Andra Davis to make decisions between covering TEs, or watching for the run. Expect Denver's two LBs to be in zone.

Andra Davis (Courtesy - NFL)

A quick note on Andra Davis. A lot of Cleveland fans may look forward to playing against Davis. He was considered slow (true) and not a great asset for Cleveland (true again). But in Denver's scheme, Davis has found his niche as a very effective run stopper, and is getting put in position to (surprisingly) make a difference when the ball goes in the air. As I wrote during the re-loading season, the acquistion of Davis makes sense for Denver. Cleveland fans would be surprised to watch some game film of Davis in Week One against the Bengals, and with a chip on his shoulder, he might be a force in this game as well.

Watch the right side of the Cleveland offensive line. Denver has suddenly found depth by swtiching from a 4-3 to a 5-2, and players ranging from Mario Haggan to Darrell Reid to 1st-round pick Robert Ayers may be rotated in to attack a suspect duo of John St. Clair and Floyd Womack.

A big question mark is Cleveland's RB situation. As of Thursday's practice, Jamal Lewis was limited in practice, and Jerome Harrison practiced fully, but is coming off of a knee injury. Cedric Peerman and James Davis were also limited in practice. Denver's rush defense is much improved, and the new schemes in use by Denver tend to support stopping the run.

Jamal Lewis (Courtesy - NFL)

Cleveland likes to run the ball, and did so (and well) against the Vikings. Lewis is the kind of player that can average over 5 YPC, so I think Cleveland will continue to pound the ball and avoid some of the issues in the passing game. Cleveland's game plan may be as simple as trying to establish the run, force a safety into the box, and then let go with a deep ball. Don't be surprised if the biggest gain via pass turns out to be to a TE, and not Cribbs. Denver's safeties will be making tricky decisions on whether to cover a TE or play over the top of WRs that may streak the field at any moment.

Broncos Offense vs Browns Defense

Denver's run game didn't look so hot in the season opener. I noted two problems here. First, Denver was calling sweeps with Peyton Hillis, who is more of a downhill guy who shouldn't be racing to the edge. But more importantly, rookie Knowshon Moreno was dancing around instead of taking his one cut and committing. This is something that I'm sure the RBs coach (Turner) will be addressing this week in practice. Correll Buckhalter had some flashes, and looks to develop into an effective RB for Denver.

Cleveland's run defense was solid in the first half of Game One, severely limiting an elite Vikings gound game. But when the second half rolled around, the defense rolled over. In Denver, where the altitude makes endurance a bigger factor, watch closely to see if Denver goes into the second half with a lead to wear down the Browns defense.

Denver's pass game is interesting to look at. Brandon Marshall is deadly with yards after the catch, but didn't look comfortable having missed much of the offseason either suspended or holding out. Eddie Royal didn't have a great game, but that's a rare thing. Denver can still count on amazing depth, having seen great play in the preseason from Brandon Stokley, Jabar Gaffney, and Brandon Lloyd. Denver also has receiving threats at TE with Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler, as well as superior blocking from Graham and rookie Richard Quinn.

Kyle Orton (Courtesy - NFL)

The big question mark is, as always, Kyle Orton. Denver fans that were used to spectacular yards aren't seeing them, and this is bad. On the other hand, Denver fans aren't seeing multiple interceptions, and this is terrific. Orton needs to have two goals for this game...

First, continue to protect the ball. The team can afford to be limited in passing yards while still winning ballgames. With a slow-moving offense though, the team can't afford more than one (if that) interception. Second, as Orton gets more comfortable, he'll need to make more passes. Denver won't win on the running game alone, and needs at least some balance to help the running game to get consistant yards.

An entertaining matchup on this side of the game is Browns NT Shaun Rogers against Denver OC Casey Wiegmann.

Special Teams

Josh Cribbs (Courtesy - NFL)

This is a picture of Josh Cribbs of the Browns. Don't kick or punt to him. If you do, the coverage teams had better be ready. That is all that needs to be said about special teams.

Keys to the Game

Both teams share a crucial goal - get to the opposing QB. Both QBs will have severe problems if they are hurried, and both teams sport excellent pass rushes. The keys to the running games lay in the trenches, so both teams must rely on their offensive and defensive lines to win this game. This game will be won or lost in the trenches in my opinion.

If Dumervil can work his magic on the weak side, Cleveland is in serious trouble. If not, Cleveland still needs to worry about the right side of their line. Likewise, Denver's famous OL showed some cracks against Cincy, and needs to be at their best to stop the Browns' attack against Orton. Expect both teams to play an attacking defense.

While the oddsmakers, experts, and polls seem to show this being a win for Denver, I think the game is more evenly matched than most folks might think. I'll take Denver too, but with the caveat that both teams' fans are probably underestimating their opponents. I expect this to be a close game, with a big-play difference.

Denver -

Pressure Quinn. With enough pressure, Cleveland will have to use TEs to block instead of going on routes. This forces Quinn to pass into a dangerous secondary. If the pressure isn't effective, Quinn can pass to open TEs in the seams, and watch for a deep-threat moment to make a defining score in the game.
Establish the run. Cleveland showed defensive weaknesses in the second half against the Vikings, while Denver didn't seem to sweat against a Cincy team that had their hands on their hips trying to catch their breath in the second half. If Denver's run game is sharp, the pass gets easier for Orton and the pass rush of Cleveland gets negated.
Limit turnovers. Turnovers often determine games, but in a game with the matchups presented in Game 2 of this season, I think they are even more critical. Both teams will fight for short yardage, and I share Guru's predicition that a big play or two will likely swing the game. For this reason, Denver can't afford to lose hard-fought field position on an interception or fumble.

Cleveland -

Pressure Orton. Orton is careful and can hold onto a ball for too long. Orton is under a lot of pressure to succeed in Denver, and pressure on the field against the QB cancels out the star power of an elite receiving and TE corps.
Force third-and-long situations so that Josh Cribbs gets plenty of touches on punts. The more that Denver has to punt, the better the odds of a Cribbs punt return. Denver has an improved coverage team over last year, but do they really want to face Cribbs several times? A big play will likely decide this game, and if it isn't a break away pass (or run), it will be Cribbs.
Don't challenge Bailey. Better QBs and better WRs have made this mistake. Quinn's throws can be effective to TEs, and he can make a lot of short and medium passes for moderate gains around the field. Rookie nickelback Alphonso Smith can be a dangerous threat, as can veteran Goodman. But a medium-range pass to Bailey is suicide. Unless the receiver is clearly down field from Bailey, go elsewhere. As I opined earlier, turnovers and big plays should determine this game. Cleveland may need a deep pass or a return on special teams. Denver will shoot for the turnovers, particularly on INTs.

Poll

Denver -

Wins big

121 votes

Wins moderate

478 votes

Wins close

345 votes

Loses close

34 votes

Loses moderate

17 votes

Loses big

16 votes

1011 votes | Poll has closed

Predicting the Arizona Cardinals Record: Part 2

Andrew602 — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 11:00:09 -0000

Last week we broke down the first 4 games of the Arizona Cardinals season, and at that point, they were 3-1. While it seems like it could be a good start, a few Cardinal homers feel like starting 4-0 is very possible. Either way, the Cardinals will need a strong start to the season, as the rest of the NFC West, let alone the entire league, will be gunning for them right away. Nevertheless, the next four games are as follows:

Week 6 - At Seattle Seahawks

Key Additions: WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, DT Cory Redding, DT Colin Cole, CB Ken Lucas, LB Aaron Curry

Key Losses: LB Julian Peterson, RB Maurice Morris, DT Rocky Bernard, WR Bobby Engram

Analysis: Last year Seattle tried harder to keep players healthy rather then win, evidence being their 4-12 record. At times they were searching for back ups for their back ups, and were bringing in new players on a weekly basis. With that in mind, they went out in search for a receiver that could fill a hole that was gaping last year, and also brought in some defensive talent. This year the Jim Mora Jr regime begins, and there is sure to be an adjustment period. The Seahawks hope to get back to their winning ways, and it starts by dethroning the defending NFC West champs.

What to watch for: The Cardinals will be going into their 2nd game on the road in 2009, and Seattle is known for giving road teams problems. The "12th man" is sure to be there, and that means false starts for the Cardinals. If they can avoid these and win in a place that's always been a tough place to win for them, it's a good sign for things to come. If the Cardinals do win on the road in Seattle, which would be two years in a row, this is the true sign of the changing of the guard in the NFC West.

Key Match Up: Adrian Wilson vs Matt Hasselbeck - Hmm, I feel a repeat of last year on the road in Seattle ; )

Prediction: Win - At this point the Cardinals are beginning a stretch of tough games, and need a win against a division rival.

Week 7 - At New York Giants

Key Additions: DT Rocky Bernard, LB Michael Boley, DT Chris Canty, WR Hakeem Nicks

Key Losses: WR Plaxico Burress, RB Derrick Ward, DE Renaldo Wynn, S James Butler

Analysis: The Giants began 2008 as one of the best teams in the league and up until Plaxico Burress shot himself in the leg, they were. After the loss of Burress, Eli's go-to man, he wasn't the same, and neither was the offense. This year they drafted Hakeem Nicks, hoping to replace Burress, who was released this off season. They also looked to add significant depth to the defensive line. There's no doubt that the Giants will be fired up in this home game against the defending NFC champs.

What to watch for: The most interesting factor to look out for is the battle in the trenches. New York has one of the top offensive lines in the league, and it will be very difficult for the Cards defensive line to battle it out. If they can stop the run and pressure Eli Manning, it would surely give them the W. On the flip side, the Giants have a very aggressive defensive line and have Osi Umenyiora returning. If the Cardinals offensive line can protect Warner and open up holes for the running backs, expect the Cardinals to remain in this game.

Key match up: Cardinals D-line vs Giants O-line

Prediction: Loss - Although it's not an early game, it's still a road game against a very good Giants team.

Week 8 - Carolina Panthers

Key Additions: C Justin Geisinger, DE Everette Brown, DB Sherrod Martin

Key Losses: CB Ken Lucas, OT Frank Omiyale, OG Geoff Hangartner

Analysis: Carolina was one of the best rushing teams in the league last year with their version of "smash and dash", and while their passing offense was suspect, it got the job done. They were aggressive on the defensive side of the ball, and had great talent in Jon Beason and Julius Peppers. Everything seemed to be going their way until they ran into the Cardinals in the playoffs. Numerous turnovers and the inability to stop Larry Fitzgerald ended their season. Other then adding some defensive depth in the draft, not much has changed, and John Fox still has confidence is Jake Delhomme. The Panthers will surely try to build off of last years team, and make another run in this year's playoffs.

What to watch for: This will be one of the toughest tests for the Cardinals defense, as they face a very good rushing offense. If the Cards can repeat what they did last year and get ahead early, it will put all the pressure on Delhomme's shoulders, which we all know hasn't worked out that good in the past.

Key match up: Cardinals linebackers vs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams

Prediction: Win - Playing against the team at home that dominated them in the playoffs will be a huge factor for the Panthers.

Week 9 - At Chicago Bears

Key Additions: QB Jay Cutler, OT Frank Omiyale, OT Orlando Pace

Key Losses: OT John Tait, OT John St. Clair, QB Kyle Orton, QB Rex Grossman

Analysis: The Bears haven't rebounded from losing the Super Bowl three years ago, and appear to have a new look since then. They feature a different starter at quarterback, running back and wide receiver, then they did that year, and hope to build off of a mediocre season last year. They hope that Cutler is the answer at quarterback, and that he and Matt Forte can vastly improve their offense. On the defensive side of the ball, their solid with the veteran leadership of Brian Urlacher.

What to watch for: The immediate sign to watch for is how the Cardinals handle playing on the road in a considerably cold weather game. The Cardinals may want to jump out to an early lead and pound the ball by running up the middle, and drain time off of the clock. Watch for Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower to get a decent amount of carries in that game.

Key match up: Devin Hester vs Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie- Two speedy players with pivotal action. This should be interesting to watch. Another key match up is Beanie Wells taking on Brian Urlacher.

Prediction: Loss - It hurts to predict this but this may be the upset of the season. The Bears can be dangerous and we don't know right now how the Cardinals will perform on the road in 2009.

------------------------------------------------

Cardinals Projected Record After 8 Games: 5-3

While it may come as a surprise to some, 5-3 seems very likely. This set of four games is a very tough stretch and if the Cardinals were to come out 2-2, it would be successful. It may also mean first place in the division, a place the Cardinals stood this time last year. What do you think so far? Is 5-3 out of this world? Is there another key match up that nobody else agrees with?

Know Thy Enemy 2009: Chicago Bears - November 12

Fooch — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 15:00:12 -0000

Week 11 brings an intriguing home matchup for the 49ers. They will be facing off against the Chicago Bears at Candlestick Park on the NFL Network. Even though time has passed, it's still worth noting that this is the first regular season matchup between the teams since the Bears successfully accused the 49ers of tampering with Lance Briggs.

Many of you may be wondering where this logo comes from, as it's most definitely not the logo for our Bears site. Well, in March of 2008, when the tampering business was going down I got extremely annoyed with the Bears. So I had our man wjackalope develop this graphic and proceeded to refer to the Bears as the Chicago Stoolies (stool pigeon, get it?). Anyways, time has passed but I thought it would be amusing to roll this logo out one more time.

The Chicago Bears are represented at SB Nation by WCG over at Windy City Gridiron.

Overview
2008 was an up and down year for the Bears, to say the least. If they had managed a win at Houston in Week 17 they would have made the playoffs. Instead they finished 9-7 and 1/2 game back of the wildcard Eagles. They lose 5 games by a touchdown or less as their ineffective offense was carried by another very solid defense. Their breakout star on offense was Matt Forte. While he put up big totals, he averaged just under the league average per carry and they had nobody to offset him. That might have been due in part to the continued struggles of their passing game. That would also factor in some of their offseason decisions. The Bears defense finished fifth against the run and tenth against the pass. Although they've got big names like Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs (among many others), it appears to have been a true team effort by most everybody on defense.

Additions
Well, it was a pretty quiet offseason for the Monsters of the Midway...oh wait, not so much. The big news for Chicago was the trade for Jay Cutler. I don't think there's anybody in the world who would say Cutler is NOT an upgrade over Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman. While they haven't exactly added much to their wide receiver corps, Cutler should provide an upgrade just by not being Orton or the Sex Cannon. The other big name addition was offensive tackle Orlando Pace. He's getting long in the tooth, but a late resurgence could do wonders for the Bears. The Bears added one other Ram in linebacker Pisa Tinoisamoa, who folks think will be their starting strong side linebacker. Finally, they added Josh Bullocks as a potential starting free safety.

The Bears highest draft choice was in the third round, so naturally they have all their players in camp. Given the lateness of their draft, there is some very interesting potential mixed in with some projects. Their top two picks were DT Jarron Gilbert and WR Juaquin Iglesias. I saw Iglesias in a postseason All Star game and recall coming away mildly impressed. Another guy I'm intrigued by (or at least have some knowledge of) is fourth round pick, CB D.J. Moore out of Vanderbilt. Charles Tillman is out due to back surgery (although he thinks he'll be back relatively early in the season), so I'd imagine D.J. Moore is going to get a nice hunk of preseason playing time.

Subtractions
The Bears parted ways with quite a few of their veterans this offseason, especially on defense. The biggest sentimental loss is probably Mike Brown. The 10-year vet was definitely a fan favorite but the Bears have started a bit of a youth movement on defense. On offense they cut ties with John St. Clair, but Bears fans are not too concerned about that at this point. Of course, the two biggest losses for the Bears have to be Rex Grossman and this 49ers fan favorite.

2009 Questions and Answers
My biggest question remains whether Jay Cutler has a sufficient amount of wide receivers a this disposal. While Devin Hester might continue to improve as a wide receiver, there's not a whole lot else there. I do think Juaquin Iglesias is talented, but history has proven rookie receivers take time to develop. I do think Cutler upgrades the receivers, but will it be enough?

Elsewhere on offense, I'm curious to see what Kevin Jones brings to the table. He has yet to play a full season and thus far it's safe to say he's been a disappointment. He's been able to find the end zone in the past, but all in all, I'm not buying yet. If the Bears are going to improve their offense, they need him to be a solid second banana to Forte. Whomever it is playing #2 to Forte, they're gonna need a heck of a lot more Jones's 34 carries.

On defense (and this could be applied on offense with the likes of Cutler and Pace), the question is how the unit will come together with a potential new free safety, strong side linebacker, and maybe even cornerback if Moore impresses. It was probably time for changes, but you still have to live with the outcome of those changes.

@ San Francisco
As I said in our very early schedule discussion, I think this is a real measuring stick game. We both felt this ended up as a win. I continue to think that if the 49ers are going to make any kind of noise this season, this is a must-win for them. The Bears are certainly a talented squad, but I really don't think they're so much more talented than the 49ers that they will walk out of here with an easy win. I think this about a lot of the games this season, but once again, I see a very close matchup. We could be looking at a field goal decision.

Cleveland Browns Training Camp 2009: Offensive Line Preview (Part 1)

Chris Pokorny — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 04:20:09 -0000

We're staying in the trenches still, but this time on the opposite side of the line. In 2007, our offensive line was tremendous compared to the previous eight years. Our starting quarterback was sacked less than once per game (14 times in 16 games), something that usually sounds like a Peyton Manning statistic. Our line did not specialize in the running game, but they still helped pave the way for a 1,300 yard season for Jamal Lewis.

Last year, things got much, much worse. Derek Anderson was sacked 14 times, but in just 10 games. That's still not a bad number, but the stats don't show how often Anderson was drilled by a defender, causing a desperation throw that would only lead to disaster. Lewis was getting hit in the backfield far too often.

When Eric Mangini took over the Jets, he made a commitment to the offensive line by drafting the likes of D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold in the same season. He already had a stud left tackle on the Browns roster and a solid left guard, but the rest of the line to the right of them was shaky.

Gone is Kevin Shaffer. In come veterans Floyd Womack and John St. Clair. In comes rookie center Alex Mack. And, waiting in the wings is the one and only Ryan Tucker. The offensive line is shaping up to be pretty darn good, but with a plan to become a unit that excels in the power running game.

Today, in Part 1, I will cover seven players who are competing for five spots. Tomorrow, the other six offensive linemen on the roster will be covered.

1. JOE THOMAS - STARTING LEFT TACKLE

Joe Thomas (#73)
Height: 6-6
Weight: 305
College: Wisconsin
Experience: 3 years
Note: All-around beast

After a Pro Bowl rookie season in 2007, Joe Thomas earned the same honors in 2008. It didn't seem like he played as well this past season, although he wasn't anywhere close to being terrible. He remained our best offensive lineman throughout the season. If anything, his struggles were a combination of the products around him struggling or being out with injuries.

The Browns have had a lot of high draft picks turn out to be busts, and a lot of left tackles taken early have ended up being nothing more than average. We were very fortunate to have the No. 3 pick in 2007, because we shouldn't have to worry about this position for about a decade. What should we look forward to with Thomas in training camp? Just don't pull a LeCharles Bentley, and everything should be fine. No, not just fine. Great.

Shaun Rogers is our best defensive player, and Joe Thomas is our best offensive player. It's good to have those foundations set in place in the trenches.

Job Security: A+
Player Quality: A+
Final Roster Odds: 100%

2. ERIC STEINBACH - STARTING LEFT GUARD

Eric Steinbach (#65)
Height: 6-6
Weight: 295
College: Iowa
Experience: 7 years
Note: Told to beef up, but not to shut up

I don't buy in to the reports from earlier in the offseason that Eric Steinbach could end up being a surprise cut. The rumor started due to Steinbach not being the type of "big" offensive lineman that Mangini would like. After Mangini asked Steinbach to add a few pounds, more fuel was added to the fire.

Any way you look at it though, I don't see how any of the above would cause Mangini to cut our best interior offensive lineman.

I don't know what Steinbach weighs in at right now; the roster page says 295, but he reportedly added 12 pounds back at the beginning of June, and Terry Pluto indicated that he was somewhere in the 270-range last season.

"The key is adding weight but also keeping Steinbach's quickness, which is the key to his success."

-Terry Pluto, Cleveland Plain Dealer

Beyond bulking up, Steinbach needs to remain healthy this year. He missed a few games last season to injury and was banged up even when he did play, hurting an already thin Browns line. Mangini might decide to rotate Steinbach in-and-out of the lineup this season for instances where he really wants to pound the ball, but in no logical scenario do I see him cutting Steinbach.

Job Security: A
Player Quality: A-
Final Roster Odds: 99%

3. ALEX MACK - STARTING CENTER

Alex Mack (#65)
Height: 6-4
Weight: 311
College: California
Experience: Rookie
Stats: Sex appeal

After a manageable 2007 season, center Hank Fraley just didn't quite cut it last season. Having two hungry, powerhouse defenses in our division, the Browns can't afford to be vulnerable straight up the middle. When Brady Quinn goes for a playaction pass, the ideal scenario would have the defender still at the line of scrimmage, not a foot away from him. Fraley's level of play degraded last season, and I could only imagine it getting worse this season.

Enter rookie Alex Mack out of California. We tried a center once in the first round (Jeff Faine) an had decent results. With Mack, we don't need him to be a Pro Bowler -- just the stable presence that Fraley was starting to lack. In fairness to Fraley, Mangini is not going to award Mack the starting job right away. And, with all rookies, the possibility always exists that it takes a longer time to adjust to the NFL; not everyone can do it as well as Thomas did. In other words, Mack isn't a guarantee to start Week 1; but I believe he will.

If you missed them or would like to look back, here are two very good pieces we featured on Mack shortly after he was drafted back in April:

Highlights of C Alex Mack, No. 21 Overall Pick of the Cleveland Browns

Questions Answered About Alex Mack by California Golden Blogs

Job Security: B
Player Quality: TBD
Final Roster Odds: 100%

4. RYAN TUCKER - STARTING RIGHT TACKLE

Ryan Tucker (#72)
Height: 6-6
Weight: 315
College: TCU
Experience: 13 years
Note: Injury issues of late

Do not take it literally that Ryan Tucker is listed below Mack. I did it that way to make more of a transition from the left side of the line to the right side of the line, which is where we now stand. In an overall ranking, a healthy Tucker would be No. 2 or No. 3 on my list.

With Shaffer anchoring the right tackle position the past two seasons, the position is now open for Tucker to take again. Although, technically, it's not like Tucker ever really lost that position. In 2007, he was suspended for the first four games of the season. When he returned, he was place at right guard. Last year, early indications in training camp were that Tucker would see some time at tackle over Shaffer. That changed due to another injury for Tucker; he only played in one game. That game was a memorable one against the New York Giants. That game itself explains the difference Tucker can have on our pass protection.

The almighty question for Tucker is can he do it for 16 games again? He's done it before, so it might just require a little bit of luck from the football gods. He's been in the league for 13 years, but I don't think that plays into the equation yet. He's still good enough to play at a high level.

One more note: it's shaping up to be Ryan Tucker vs. Floyd Womack vs. John St. Clair vs. Rex Hadnot for the two positions on the right side of the line. In reality though, only one position is "up for grabs". Tucker will start at either right guard or at right tackle -- that might depend on where Mangini feels one of the other three guys fits in best. At this time, I'm projecting Tucker at the right tackle though.

Job Security: B- for right tackle, A for starting somewhere
Player Quality: B+
Final Roster Odds: 99%

5. FLOYD "PORK CHOP" WOMACK - COMPETING FOR STARTING RIGHT GUARD

Floyd Womack (#77)
Height: 6-4
Weight: 328
College: Mississippi State
Experience: 9 years
Note: "Pork Chop"

Floyd Womack is my early favorite to be the Browns' right guard. While not a long-term solution, he has plenty of starting experience in the league and has played every position on the line except for center. While Womack is a candidate at right tackle too, right from the get go when he was signed in March, I made my prediction known:

"Although the signing of Womack so soon after the release of Kevin Shaffer might seem like a sign that he will be placed at right tackle, I wouldn't count on it. Womack, originally a fourth round pick in the 2001 draft, has only started in 47 of the 90 games he has played. Last season, Womack started 14 games -- 8 at right guard and 6 at left guard." (Link)

At 328 pounds, Womack would be about 50 pounds heavier than Steinbach was last year on the line. He has the bulk and the experience, but is he "good enough" to be a starter?

Job Security: B-
Player Quality: C+
Final Roster Odds: 98%

6. REX HADNOT - COMPETING FOR STARTING RIGHT GUARD

Rex Hadnot (#70)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 320
College: Houston
Experience: 6 years
Note: Starting guard in '08

We can't count Rex Hadnot out of the picture just yet, considering he is the reigning starting right guard of the Browns. Prior to that, he had significant experience with the Miami Dolphins for several seasons.

You'll find that Hank Fraley is missing from today's piece (he'll be listed in Day 2). It looks like it could come down to a situation where we will keep one or the other -- Fraley or Hadnot. Fraley has more experience but appears to be on the downside of his career. Hadnot has experience at center and guard, and while he wasn't dominant last year, he wasn't manhandled the way Fraley was at times. This is a plus for Hadnot's roster chances, where youth would prevail over the aging veteran.

As far as actually winning the right guard position, we'll have to see. Hadnot seems to be at a disadvantage to start though since he lacks the experience at tackle. If Tucker is the guard, he's got no chance to start. If Tucker is the tackle, then he'll have to beat out a more established and versatile Womack.

Player Quality: C
Final Roster Odds: 75%

7. JOHN ST. CLAIR - COMPETING FOR STARTING RIGHT TACKLE

John St. Clair (#78)
Height: 6-5
Weight: 315
College: Virginia
Experience: 10 years
Note: Loved then forgotten

For the Chicago Bears last season, John St. Clair started all 16 games. Originally, the Bears made it known that it was a priority this offseason to bring him back...only to see him get signed by the Browns. This irritated many Bears fans at first over at Windy City Gridiron, our SB Nation affiliate:

Well, are you happy now? Most of you got your wish, St.Clair is gone. Now were a little closer to being seriously f**ked.

Not all the reactions were that drastic, mind you. The consensus seemed to be that St. Clair was mediocre, and fans thought he could be brought back for cheap. He ended up signing a 3-year, $9 million deal with the Browns. Several months later, Bears fans are now saying "John Who?" after the team signed Frank Omiyale, Orlando Pace, and former Brown Kevin Shaffer. The Bears upgraded at the position, but, similar to Womack at guard, St. Clair can fill at one-year void as a starter if necessary. If not, then he would be our best backup tackle.

Player Quality: C
Final Roster Odds: 95%

OL Position Quality: B+ (Starters/Contenders Only)

NOTE: Tomorrow I will have Part 2 of the offensive line preview, where depth players Marlon Davis, George Foster, Hank Fraley, Dustin Fry, Kurt Quarterman, and Isaac Sowells will be looked at.

Be sure to vote in the poll below, just like all of you have been doing with the other position previews. It'll be interesting to see which combination draws the highest approval rating at right tackle.

Poll

Which RG and RT combination do you expect to see starting in Week 1?

Tucker at RG, St. Clair at RT

118 votes

Tucker at RG, Womack at RT

82 votes

Womack at RG, Tucker at RT

224 votes

Hadnot at RG, Tucker at RT

44 votes

Fraley at RG, Tucker at RT

23 votes

Tucker Won't Start (Other)

20 votes

511 votes | Poll has closed

John St. Who?

Adam T — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 16:19:47 -0000

This is an article from the Trib about 10 things I know about the Bears. I thought the #1 was hilarious and says a lot about this off season.

1. I know how hard it is to remember when the Bears' top off-season priority was re-signing left tackle John St. Clair.

How much time did we talk about how he was the key to our offseason? Then Jerry signed Frank Omiyale, Kevin Shaffer and Orlando Pace; combine that with the Jay Cutler deal and I had completely forgotten about JSC.

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 12:30:17 -0000

Happy Monday, fellow MHR community members. It's time for another version of ST&NO. We're getting to the part of the offseason where I am really starting to long for the preseason to start. When you get your information from your eyes, your eyes start to miss having anything to look at. Here's hoping the next 8 weeks goes by quickly.

Today, we'll look at the AFC North, since the Broncos will play all 4 teams this season. We'll also talk about some of the few headlines around the league, and maybe talk a little Brandon Marshall. It will make you laugh, it will make you cry (if it is your wont to cry over weird things.) It will be shallow, and narrow. Ready.... BEGIN!!!

1. As previously mentioned, our around-the-league discussion turns to the AFC North this week. As I live in the first suburb west of Cleveland, I get a fair amount of exposure to the division, so, hopefully that helps me with this 8-week road show I am on. See you after the jump.

a. Pittsburgh Steelers (2008 Record 12-4, Won Super Bowl)

Smart Personnel Moves - Kraig Urbik, a 3rd round choice from Wisconsin, has a chance to start at Guard on the Steelers' terrible offensive line. He is a big, physical run-blocker, who fits the personality of the team. I think Ziggy Hood is a good 4-3 DT, but I have my doubts about him as a 5-technique DE in the Steelers' style of 3-4. Giving Kevin Colbert the benefit of the doubt, and assuming Hood's skill set translates well, he'll probably be a rotation contributor as a rookie. Shaun McDonald is an average slot WR, which is better than the Steelers have had in that role lately.

Questionable Personnel Moves - Not that Marvel Smith is a great player, because he isn't, but I don't see how you let him leave when your offensive line is already one of the worst in the NFL. Max Starks sure isn't the answer on a 1-year, $8.5 million deal. I'm also not Bryant McFadden's biggest fan, but he'll also be somewhat challenging to replace. I didn't really care for the rest of Pittsburgh's draft, but they have to hope that either Joe Burnett or Keenan Lewis can contribute at CB as rookies. I am also not sold on the full-time promotion of Lawrence Timmons or the release of Larry Foote. Truth be told, I almost never like Pittsburgh's offseasons, so take it for what it's worth.

ST&NO Outlook - The Steelers will do what they have been doing for 35 years. They'll run the ball, stop the run, and pressure opposing QBs. Their potential for improvement comes from Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed, their top 2 picks in 2008, who gave the team virtually nothing as rookies. Both are talented, and if they develop their skills, could add new dimensions to the Steelers' offense.

This team will have to keep Ben Roethlisberger healthy, which I expect they'll have some trouble doing. Their line (Did you hear? It's awful) really struggles in pass protection, and I don't expect the arrival of Urbik to substantially change that. The defense should again be good in the front 7, but I expect that a team which can pass-protect, like the Broncos, will be able to accomplish some things against their below-average secondary.

The Steelers will again be in the mix to play in another Super Bowl, but I expect them to take a half-step backwards from last season.

b. Baltimore Ravens (2008 Record 11-5, Lost in Divisional Playoffs)

Smart Personnel Moves - I like virtually their entire draft, which is typical for them. Michael Oher is a big-time talent, and I think he will eventually move Jared Gaither to RT, where he really belongs. Paul Kruger is a high-motor pass rusher, and a favorite of mine. I expect him to compete for snaps right away. Jason Phillips was an undervalued ILB from Texas Christian, and represented good value in the 5th round. I expect him to help make up for the loss of Bart Scott. On the free agency front, I liked the low-dollar signings of CB-RS Chris Carr and TE L.J. Smith, and I think both can make the team and contribute. The Ravens had to re-sign Ray Lewis, and did it eventually.

Questionable Personnel Moves - They lost the talent exchange huge in signing C Matt Birk, and letting Jason Brown leave as a UFA. Brown is a mauler, who fit the Ravens' style, and Birk is totally a finesse guy. Domonique Foxworth is a great guy, and an average CB, and there's no way he warranted a 4-year, $28 million contract. He can't replace Chris McAllister, who was cut in a somewhat weird salary dump. I also would take Jim Leonhard over Dawan Landry any day, and I think the Ravens should have tried harder to retain Leonhard.

ST&NO Outlook - I believe that the Ravens overachieved in 2008, and I expect them to take a step backwards to 8-8 or 9-7 this season. I didn't address the loss of Bart Scott in either of the two categories above, but I think it will hurt the interior of the defense. I also think the only above-average player in the secondary now is Ed Reed, and that portends for trouble. I do like the promotion of Greg Mattison to defensive coordinator. He worked as co-Defensive Coordinator at the University of Florida for 3 years, which is how I came to be familiar with him.

On offense, Joe Flacco had a very nice rookie season, and I'll be interested to see what kind of improvement he experiences in his second year. The offense isn't great, and if the defense isn't dominant, it would be hard to imagine them having a lot of comeback ability. That's the scenario which I envision for the Ravens in 2009. They'll be well-coached, but a little short on talent.

c. Cincinnati Bengals (2008 Record 4-11-1, Missed Playoffs)

Smart Personnel Moves - In the draft, I really liked the selection of TE Chase Coffman from Missouri. I think he will grow to become their best pass-catcher at TE since Dan Ross in the 1980s. On talent, you have to like T Andre Smith, ILB Rey Maualuga, and DE Michael Johnson, but all three are considered major threats to underachieve. Since we're in benefit-of-the-doubt mode, we'll just focus on the talent for now. In my opinion, Laveranues Coles is a more threatening player than the departed T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and they got him for less than Who's-your-mama cost Seattle. I liked the trade for RB Brian Leonard, which fell a little under the radar. He has some similarities to Peyton Hillis, that I think Bengals fans will enjoy. They also paid reasonable money (2 years, $7 million) for Cedric Benson, who really played pretty well for them last season.

Questionable Personnel Moves - I would have moved WR Chad Ochocinco out of town, and not thought twice about it. With the signing of Coles, and the high draft picks spent on Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell last season, Ocho isn't worth the headache that you know he is going to be. I think J.T. O'Sullivan is a big downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick as a backup QB, which I guess reminds you how little I think of J.T. S Roy Williams is not the answer for the Bengals secondary. He ought to just move to WLB, where he may actually be able to be a good player.

ST&NO Outlook -The Bengals are likely to struggle again in 2008. The main reason they have been so consistently bad is their cheap approach to business. Their coaches are all low-paid relative to their peers, and you don't get quality that way. The team should have fired Marvin Lewis two years ago, but money seems to have prevented that. The Bengals spend by far the least money on scouting, and they rely very heavily on The National service for their evaluations.

Offensively, the key variable is Carson Palmer. I believe that he has never been the same player since that catastrophic knee injury in the 2006 playoff game. Now, he is coming off a serious elbow injury, and he chose not to have Tommy John surgery for it. I am not terribly optimistic for him, or the Bengals' offense.

The defense will be bad against the pass, but could improve against the run, if Keith Rivers returns from injury well, and Rey Maualuga is able to help some against base personnel packages on first and second down. The Bengals need better play out of Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall at CB, as both were first-round picks.

c. Cleveland Browns (2008 Record 4-12, Missed Playoffs)

Smart Personnel Moves - Their best moves were non-moves. It was the right thing to do in holding on to Brady Quinn and Braylon Edwards. People here in Cleveland are down on Edwards, but if he plays better, that will be a distant memory. Fan attitudes in Cleveland change like the weather. I liked the acquisition of DE Kenyon Coleman, S Abram Elam, and QB Brett Ratliff in the trade for the #5 overall pick. Regular readers will note that I don't like top-10 picks, but Coleman and Elam are likely to start, and I think Ratliff will end up backing up Quinn. Brian Robiskie will be a good possession WR, even if the Browns over-drafted him. I really liked the acquisition of Mike Furrey in free agency. He is one of the best slot guys in the NFL when he is used correctly.

Questionable Personnel Moves - I didn't care for the Alex Mack pick on a couple of levels. I like Eric Wood better, but that's a difference of opinion. Really, though, the Browns needed to take Chris Wells or Donald Brown. The Browns' RB situation is abysmal, and it's hard to have an identity as a running team, without the horses to do it. Kevin Shaffer was lousy at RT, but John St. Clair is worse, so I don't see how you let Shaffer go. Sean Jones should have also been re-signed. In the draft, I was not a lover of the Mohammed Massaquoi pick. I have seen him a lot, and he is just a guy.

ST&NO Outlook - I think the Browns are on the right track, generally. If any team needs a coach to ignore the howls of the local radio idiots and their un-knowledgeable callers, it's the Browns. Eric Mangini is the embodiment of the guy who doesn't care what Mike Trivisonno thinks about anything. You hear about stuff like the rookies taking a bus trip, and coaches working until midnight, but I tend to think Mangini's prickliness is OK, because he knows how to build a program. He was on the way in New York, and he got hamstrung by the Favre expectations, and then lost his job when it didn't work out.

I am nearly certain that Brady Quinn will win the starting QB job. He is very technically sound, and he processes the game really quickly and decisively, which is the opposite of Derek Anderson. The left side of the O-Line is very good, although there are odd rumors that Eric Steinbach is out of favor, as noted in this space last week. I think that Jamal Lewis is washed-up, and that rookie James Davis may beat him out for a lot of carries.

The defense is kind of a disaster story. NT Shaun Rogers is outstanding, and I have always liked CB Brandon McDonald (who was the burnee on Eddie Royal's 93-yard TD last season.) Beyond that, I am not too fond of anybody on their defensive unit. Eric Wright has talent, and may improve, and Kamerion Wimbley could be good if he ever learned to do anything more than speed rush.

We'll see the Browns in Week 2, but they are at least one draft away from being very scary. I'd rather be them than the Bengals, though.

2. I think it is absurd that Brandon Marshall may face additional discipline if he is convicted in the Watley case, which has now been postponed until August. It seems to me that the NFL is having it two ways, and that it's unfair. Think about it like this. In the Paul Tagliabue days, the League always waited until after legal matters were resolved to levy punishments. Roger Goodell has asserted his right to rule before legal matters are finalized, and in fact, it seems that that is standard practice.

So, when Marshall was suspended last year, for getting arrested a few times, it seemed that that penalty encompassed this allegation, as well as all of Brandon's past transgressions. That the NFL is saying they can still penalize Brandon for the known allegation would not be fair. Guru said that he speculated the NFL's position to be maintenance of flexibility in the event that new allegations emerge in this trial, which would be slightly more understandable. My position is that the underlying allegation has been penalized, and that the NFL should stop saber-rattling, and do nothing further. I would say that even if we were talking about Philip Rivers.

3. Brett Favre had surgery to fix his shoulder. Good times, huh? It looks like he'll be a Viking this season. It says here that Brett will not deliver a championship for them, and that they'll struggle to even make the playoffs with him in the lineup. He is a chemistry killer at this point in his career.

4. I liked what I heard from Josh McDaniels about how he planned to use Peyton Hillis this season. I think any smart coach would look for ways to use a guy like Peyton, in both the running and passing games.

5. Coming back to Marshall, I don't think that there is very much substance to this business about him holding out for more money. It is just the kind of thing that a Pork Chop or one of his ilk will try to make a big deal about, to fill some space. While I am sure that Marshall would like more money, it's not a big deal until he starts skipping mandatory events.

6. Mike Lombardi had an interesting nugget in his Sunday at the Post column.

Word I hear out of Denver is that the Broncos are very happy with both quarterbacks. However; Kyle Orton should be the starter when the season starts. Chris Simms is getting better with each practice, speeding his game up and making decisions faster. But Orton still has the upper hand.

My goodness, two QBs who can play? Who saw that coming? How could a team be happy about Orton and Simms?

With a slow news week comes a short list. We'll see you next week, for more ST&NO. We'll talk about the AFC East, and anything that may come up this week.

Poll

Who will win the AFC North this season?

Pittsburgh Steelers

439 votes

Baltimore Ravens

100 votes

Cincinnati Bengals

15 votes

Cleveland Browns

14 votes

568 votes | Poll has closed

NightLink: Is Orlando Pace a Gamble for the Bears?

Dane Noble — Fri, 29 May 2009 21:53:14 -0000

Last season, the Chicago Bears offensive line did not perform as poorly as a lot of people expected them to. But heading into this offseason, we knew that it was something that needed addressing pretty badly. As free agency opened this year, it seemed like it was going to be another hibernation period for the Bears that we all knew too well.

Then, things started happening. And as we look back, we can truly say that our favorite football team was very proactive in overhauling our OLine. We let John St. Clair leave town, and added Orlando Pace, Frank Omiyale, and Kevin Shaffer. Plus, Chris Williams is expected to be 100% healthy.

All four of those guys have question marks around them, especially regarding Orlando Pace. And the biggest question is whether Pace can stay healthy enough to help Chicago win football games.

"It's a funny thing about injuries," he said. "Once you come back from them, you're just happy to have a chance to be on the field again. That's how I felt last year, and I also feel good now. I evaluated all those [medical questions] before I came here."

Pace admits that he seriously pondered his future. He even talked about retirement with former Baltimore Ravens left tackle Jonathan Ogden when the two ran into each other in Las Vegas last summer. At that time, Ogden recently had retired after a 12-year career that included 11 Pro Bowl appearances. Though Pace wanted to know what drove Ogden from the game, Pace also left that conversation feeling as if he and Ogden were in different places.

Said Pace: "Jonathan told me he just felt like it was time for him to go. He said he had been dealing with a foot injury and that could be hard for an offensive lineman to handle. I also didn't see myself as a guy who was going to go out as just another player that the St. Louis Rams released. I felt like I had more to give."

It seems like most of the optimism I hear about Orlando Pace comes from Bears fans. Most people who are not fans seem to think the same thing: that Pace is washed up and only a shell of his former self. One thing is for sure, Ron Turner is cheerleading for Pace:

"Orlando is such a great player that he commands respect as soon as he walks into the huddle," Turner said. "With him and another veteran like [center] Olin Kreutz, you've got two guys who really know how to train and study. It can only help our younger players get better when they're around people like that."

Do you have confidence that Orlando Pace will be able to stay healthy and contribute significantly in 2009?