SB Nation - Antoine Winfield

The Vikings Red Zone Review, Sponsored by Comcast

Gonzo — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 02:51:28 -0000

6 days ago: Minnesota Vikings' Adrian Peterson (28) dives over Cincinnati Bengals' Keith Rivers for a 1-yard touchdown run during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Andy King)

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It's that time of the week where we take one last look back at the Vikings' previous performance and review exactly how they did in the red zone against their last opponent. In order to do that, we need to move into everybody's favorite segment here at DN, the Vikings' Red Zone Review. As always, the Vikings Red Zone Review is brought to you by the good folks at Comcast. Comcast brings you the NFL Red Zone channel every week, and it's your way to keep in touch with all the biggest plays from every NFL game week in and week out. It's great for fantasy players, or for the late games when you're not sure which game you want to view while celebrating the Vikings' latest conquest. The Red Zone Channel is your season ticket for every single NFL game, and nobody brings it to you like the folks at Comcast.

So, how did the Vikings do in the red zone against the Cincinnati Bengals? Well. . .not to spoil anything, but they did pretty darn good.

Vikings Red Zone trips - 4
Vikings Red Zone scores - 4 (3 TD, 1 FG)
Red Zone touchdown percentage - 75%

Once again, the Vikings converted all of their red zone possessions into points, which is always what you want to see from your offense, obviously. Minnesota's first three possessions ended with a punt, Brett Favre's sixth interception of the 2009 season, and a 44-yard Ryan Longwell field goal on a possession where the Vikings didn't reach the red zone. On their fourth possession, however, turned into the Adrian Peterson show, which is generally a good thing for the Minnesota Vikings. The drive started at the Minnesota 43-yard line, and two quick carries for #28 picked up 14 yards and moved the ball into Cincinnati territory. After an incompletion that was sandwiched between two false start penalties, Favre hit Peterson on a pass for 28 yards to the Cincinnati 11 and Minnesota's first trip to the red zone on the afternoon. The drive then came down to a third down from the Cincinnati 9. Favre took the snap, pump faked a defender out of his shoes, rolled to his right, and found Sidney Rice in the end zone for a 9-yard touchdown strike to put the Vikings ahead 10-0. The drive moved 57 yards in 7 plays, and took 2:46 to complete.

After the Bengals responded with a red zone possession of their own. . .one that led to their only touchdown of the afternoon. . .the Vikings took over again at their own 24. Favre quickly found Visanthe Shiancoe for 6 yards, and another 11-yard jaunt for Peterson set up a fresh set of downs. Favre continued mixing in different receivers, as he proceeded to complete passes to Bernard Berrian and Greg Lewis as the Vikings moved down the field. He even picked up a rare (for Favre) rushing first down with a 4-yard sneak on 3rd and 2. However, the drive stalled in the Bengals' red zone, and Ryan Longwell came in for another field goal, this one from 23 yards out to make it 13-7, Vikings. That drive went 71 yards in 14 plays, taking 3:21 to complete.

Longwell capped the first half scoring with another field goal that came as a result of Antoine Winfield forcing Bengals' running back Brian Leonard to fumble as the Bengals tried to do. . .something. I don't think anyone's really sure. But, in any case, the field goal was good from 44 yards out, and the Vikings took a 16-7 lead into the locker room at halftime.

Minnesota took the ball to start the second half, and rather than airing another episode of the All Day with Adrian Peterson, they decided to go with a showing of All Night with Chester Taylor instead. AP had a co-starring role in this one, however. . .in fact, Taylor and Peterson combined for all 60 yards the Vikings gained on that drive. In fact, here's how the drive went, play-by-play.

Peterson carry for 2 yards
Peterson carry for 3 yards
Taylor 6 yard reception
Taylor carry for 5 yards
False start on Jim Kleinsasser
Bengal sack
Encroachment on Cincinnati
Taylor 26 yard reception
Taylor carry for 17 yards
Peterson carry for 5 yards
Peterson carry for 2 yards
Peterson carry for 1 yard and the touchdown

Yep. . .the only skill position players that touched the ball for the Vikings on their opening drive of the third quarter were Favre, Taylor, and Peterson. That's still pretty good. The 1-yard touchdown run for Peterson also gave him a tie for the Vikings' single season record for rushing touchdowns with his 13th of the season. The 60 yard drive was accomplished in 10 plays, and it took 6:20 to complete, putting the Vikings ahead 23-7.

The Bengals would eventually add a field goal early in the fourth quarter to make the score 23-10, and after the subsequent exchange of punts the Vikings decided it was time to put things away. Starting at the Minnesota 33, Favre decided to mix things up a little bit by getting the ball to Sidney Rice to pick up a first down. A couple of plays later, a 19-yard completion to Berrian moved the ball into Cincinnati territory. A 9-yard pass to Berrian and an 8-yard carry by Peterson put the ball into the Bengals' red zone again at the 16-yard line. After Sidney Rice got the ball down to the 4, Peterson finished things off with two more carries and what turned out to be a 1-yard touchdown run to put the Vikings ahead 30-10. The touchdown was Peterson's 14th rushing TD of the year, giving him sole possession of the Minnesota Vikings' record for most rushing touchdowns in one season. Congratulations to the best running back in the National Football League on his accomplishment!

With their numbers from the Cincinnati game, the Vikings have ventured into the red zone 49 times in the 2009 season. In those trips, they've scored 27 touchdowns (55.1%), put 16 Ryan Longwell field goals on the board (32.7%), and failed to score on only six occasions (12.2%). Their opponents, on the other hand, have breached the Minnesota red zone 30 times, with the Vikings allowing 12 touchdowns (40%), giving up 12 field goals (40%), and holding the opponent scoreless 6 times (20%).

Here's hoping that the Vikings' numbers on both sides will continue to improve this Sunday night as they travel to Charlotte to take on the Carolina Panthers.

Vikings Bounce Back Nicely, Cruise to Win Over Bengals

Anthony21 — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 22:24:44 -0000

More photos » by Andy King - AP

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After last week's debacle, I wrote:

Plenty of problems were exposed tonight, and plenty of challenges have emerged -- now we get to see just how resilient this team is.

Answer: Pretty dang resilient.

After a scoreless first quarter, the Vikings jumped out to a two-score lead over the Bengals by halftime, extended that lead by a touchdown in the third quarter, and iced the game in the fourth quarter. Between missteps by a sloppy Bengals club, an impressive defensive effort headlined by the return of Antoine Winfield, a productive afternoon for Adrian Peterson, and a solid special teams performance, the Vikings looked darn good today.

And of all the factors that lifted the Vikings to a 20-point win over Cincinnati, the defense deserves a huge amount of the credit. One unforgettable scene from today's game: Antoine Winfield dropping what should have been an intercepted pass, and proceeding to do several push-ups between his drop and the next play. Good to have you back, Toine. The man's presence was felt in a big way, as Carson Palmer only managed 94 yards on 25 pass attempts. Chad Ochocinco got into the endzone in the second quarter to bring the Bengals within a field goal, but as far as offensive highlights go, there weren't many for Cincy beyond Ocho's 15-yard score.

Sure, Cedric Benson put up some impressive numbers -- 16 carries for 96 yards -- but nearly half of those yards came on a single carry, and for the most part, the rush defense was solid. All told, the Bengals could only manage 210 yards of total offense, while getting flagged 11 times for 85 yards. The Vikings made their share of unforced errors (nine penalties for 69 yards), but the Purple didn't make any mistakes that were too costly.

On the offensive side, Adrian Peterson rebounded nicely from a rough night in Arizona, finishing the game with a combined 137 yards through the air and on the ground. He also scored twice, including a dive into the endzone for a touchdown in the third quarter that would clinch the victory for the Vikings.

Brett Favre continued to struggle a bit, completing just over 50% of his passes while tossing a touchdown and an interception. The absence of Percy Harvin couldn't have helped matters for Brett, who never targeted his other favorite receivers -- Shank and Rice -- with any sort of consistency this afternoon (though it should be noted that one of Sid's four receptions was a nine-yard touchdown in the first quarter that lifted the Vikings to a 10-0 lead). It was a shame that Brett couldn't get into a rhythm for the second game in a row, but then again, that doesn't matter a whole lot when everything else is going right for the Vikings. And that was the case today.

Jasper Brinkley made three tackles today in relief of E.J. Henderson, but the real story was the emotional lift provided to this defense through the return of Antoine Winfield. After nine tackles and a few push-ups, Antoine had given everyone a reminder -- as if we needed it -- of just how valuable he is to this defense. You would have never guessed this guy had been sidelined for as long as he was, since he didn't miss a beat out there.

By the way, something that will probably go under the radar but deserves mention is the performance from the special teams. Aside from a penalty or two, it was near-perfect. Longwell went 3/3, Cincy averaged three yards per punt return and under 20 yards per kickoff return, and Kluwe was kicking the ball nicely out there. For a group that has sometimes struggled to rebound from a tough 2008 season, the special teams looked good today.

But Antoine Winfield and Adrian Peterson will headline this game, and rightfully so. Winfield was simply tremendous, and Peterson's pair of touchdowns helped him break a single-season team record for rushing touchdowns. This week was about rebounding from a setback, and both of those guys did just that.

Seahawks Humiliated on the Road; Deliver Signature Loss of the 2009 Season

John Morgan — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 21:46:40 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

I am pretty sure George Walker Bush busted coverage on a few plays. Fire him. Fire EVERYBODY!

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If ever a time for finger pointing and easy answers existed, it is now. I could attack the character, play and talent of about any Seahawk and score. We don't know exactly how Seattle failed, but we all certainly saw someone in blue fail and that, that guy, is the problem. Panic loves a demagogue and I've the rich pipes to shout orders at the assembling mob. To Renton!

The coaches! We can be sure they're dumb.

The line! Sucked like an Oreck.

Matt Hasselbeck! Boy that guy's done!

The Seattle Seahawks were 4-12 last season. They are now 5-8. They should win against Tampa, and since we're talking "shoulds", they should finish the season 6-10. That is a reasonable step forward for the 2008 Seattle Seahawks. The 2008 Seattle Seahawks were one of the five worst teams in football. The 2009 Seattle Seahawks are one of the ten worst teams in football. And when a bad team, with a suspect line, conservative playbook and aged quarterback gets behind early on the road, it has no answer. It is not one player's fault, but a complete team failure.

That Julius Jones! What a jobber.

And Housh! An overpaid primadonna!

I hope that is sufficient aperitif for everyone's hunger for blame.

Here are some sure to be unpopular observations.

Josh Wilson ran down the field and tipped away a deep pass. That was an exciting display of man cover for the kid and a small, small-small step towards realizing his potential. Wilson might settle at nickel and he is already a fine situational defensive back, but there's room for Pistol to develop into a Antoine Winfield type corner.

Deon Butler can own the short pattern. He's smooth into and out of his cuts and the rare receiver capable of quick acceleration and long-stride speed. Butler must be embraced as a receiver rather than a forty time. From the time he was drafted, Seattle has mismanaged his talent: Wasting time and development, not to mention risking injury, auditioning him as a returner; Sending him streaking up the sideline without a quarterback that could target him; seeing him as a deep receiver because of one attribute and missing his true profile as an underneath burner.

The defense kept its pride even after being handed its ass. Seattle forced two big turnovers that quickly dissolved into nothing, but were clean, meaningful turnovers. Seahawks fans are done thinking this is an elite unit, and with ample reason, but it is young, it is mostly cheap and it is worth picking apart and finding value within. Whether Seattle needs a complete rebuild or not is mootable. I see young talent growing within an otherwise crumbling team.

The team is crumbling. Today a pillar broke off and landed on the Seahawks coaching staff. I like Gus Bradley, Greg Knapp and Dan Quinn. I think all three have a future in this league, but probably not together. I can't see Jim Mora escaping such an embarrassing loss. It was always unlikely Mora would stay. New general managers want their guy. I will not look back at Mora and feel contempt, but he has not earned much respect in his short time here. Fiery is fine. I see desperation. The look of a man that thinks he can yell his way out of failure.

This loss hurt through the first half and settled in the second. Now I don't feel it all. A better team, at home, that matches strength against many of Seattle's weaknesses, playing from well ahead from the first quarter on...

And it won't matter a damn in a month. The Seahawks live beyond the players, coaches and fans. Suck as today sucks, and this sucks, Seattle will rise again. And someday, that good coverage down field by Wilson, the rollicking tiny power presence of Justin Forsett, that force of nature hitting by Aaron Curry, will matter again. Just not today. Or soon. Or even next year, probably.

Game ball: Brandon Mebane was stuck behind Chuck Darby not too long ago. Back then, I was sure to point out Darby's missteps and Mebane's potential. He finally got his shot when Darby was lost to injury and has been nothing but special ever since. He is, accounting for position, Seattle's best pass rusher. He is clearly Seattle's best run stuffer.

Mebane is the rare defensive lineman that bunches double teams and brutalizes them if the quarterback double-clutches. He sticks-out when he's in and even more when he's out. A dozen players on the current roster would be lucky to make the next winning team, but make one Brandon Mebane. Kid was playing for a good team, he would be bashing backs and sacking quarterbacks towards his second Pro Bowl.

Bengals/Vikings Second Half Thread

Gonzo — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 19:43:42 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

6 days ago: Cincinnati Bengals' Carson Palmer (9) is sacked by Minnesota Vikings' Brian Robison during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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Well, after a scoreless first quarter, things got interested in the second for the Bengals and Vikings.

Minnesota opened the scoring with a 41-yard Ryan Longwell field goal to make it 3-0, and soon after Favre found Sidney Rice for a 9-yard touchdown strike to make it 10-0.

The Bengals answered immediately with an 82-yard drive that ended in a 15-yard touchdown pass from Carson Palmer to Chad Ochocinco to make it 10-7. The Vikings then tacked on another Longwell field goal, this one from 23 yards out, to make it 13-7.

Then, as the Bengals were attempting to run out the clock, Antoine Winfield. . .who has been a beast today. . .forced Brian Leonard to fumble, and the Vikings got a third field goal from Longwell, a 44-yarder, to make it 16-7 as we went to the locker room.

The second half action is right here, folks!

Interview: Daily Norseman stop by to give us knowledge on the Vikings

Kirkendall — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 18:01:58 -0000

Some are already looking towards week 15 against the Chargers as the biggest game of the year for the Bengals, limiting the importance of this weekend's game against the Minnesota Vikings. However, in an odd world of things, both the Vikings and Bengals have proven very little against winning teams this year. If it wasn't for the Packers, neither team would have won a game against a team that has a winning record at this point in the season. So while Sunday's game has little to do with playoff implications, it does have a lot to do with proving that they belong with the NFL elite. Confidence is a big thing in the NFL and from Cincinnati's perspective, they'll need to beat the Vikings to prove that they can travel to California and beat the Chargers with the second seed in the AFC on the line.

But what about these Vikings? What should we expect? I sat down with Gonzo from Daily Norseman, who gives us some knowledge on our opponent this weekend, in a game that features two teams with a combined 19 wins this year.

1) The Vikings have played the Packers twice already. This is significant because before losing to the Cardinals, the Vikings had only beaten one team with a winning record. Then they lost by 13 to the Arizona Cardinals during last week’s Sunday Night football. Is there a feeling that the Vikings have a lot to prove against the Bengals, who are the third-ranked team in the AFC?
This week's game against the Bengals is, in my opinion, the most vital game of the season for Minnesota, because it could really set a tone for the team the rest of the way. If they beat the Bengals, it becomes easier to write the Cardinals' game off as simply a one-time bad performance, which I'm sort of under the impression it was. A loss to the Bengals, however, means that we could end up completely out of control going into what should be a relatively easy final three games of the season. The Vikings DO have a lot to prove against the Bengals this Sunday, and I think they'll be more than up for the challenge. I'm of the opinion that Sunday night in Arizona was the perfect storm of the Vikings coming out flat, the Cardinals being fired up, and Minnesota putting together their worst game of the season. I would be shocked if they played as badly against the Bengals as they did against Arizona.

2) Brett Favre is arguably having his best statistical season in his career. It seems that he’s willing to check down more often. Are there any concerns that Favre could take a downward spiral late in the season like last year when he played through an injury with the Jets?
With a guy Favre's age behind center, the concern obviously has to be there, but I don't think it's completely warranted. As you stated, last season Favre got injured during the course of the season, and it affected his ability to throw the football. As anyone this year that's watched Favre can see, his ability to physically throw the football is as good as ever. He's not playing through an injury this year or anything like that. What worries me more than that, however, is his admission that he let his emotions get the better of him against the Cardinals, which led directly to one of his interceptions. He can't afford to have that happen if the Vikings are going to continue to play well in the regular season and the post-season. He needs to continue playing smart, solid football, check it down when he has to, and just do what he's been doing through the first 3/4 of the season.

3) How will losing E.J. Henderson impact the defense?
The loss of E.J. Henderson is a significant one, to be sure. After he missed most of 2008 after dislocating his toes, it looked like he was finally back to being the old E.J. Henderson. Henderson is also one of the linebackers in the nickel package for the Vikings, as well as the defensive signal caller. Ben Leber will most likely take over Henderson's responsibility on both those fronts, and Jasper Brinkley, Minnesota's fifth-round pick in the 2009 draft out of South Carolina, will man Henderson's spot in the middle on first and second down. Brinkley has a world of potential, and with the Williams Wall in front of him, hopefully there won't be a lot of drop-off for Minnesota.

3a) The Vikings have one of the best rush defenses in the league. We’ve argued at Cincy Jungle that the Bengals need to attack the Vikings secondary. What would you say is the weakness in the Vikings defense this year?
Minnesota's front seven can compete with any team in the league, but the secondary has been no better than average for most of the year. More specifically, the safety play for most of the year has bordered on atrocious. Granted, the team has been without Antoine Winfield since Week 7, and you obviously have to change up your schemes when you lose someone of that caliber, but it doesn't excuse what we've seen from Madieu Williams and Tyrell Johnson for most of the year. (Johnson is unlikely to play on Sunday, and he'll likely be replaced by Jamarca Sanford, the Vikings' seventh-round pick in the 2009 Draft out of Ole Miss.) But the safeties are definitely the weak link in the Minnesota defense, because I think the Vikes have been pretty solid at CB for most of the year despite the loss of Winfield.

3a) Reports suggest that Antoine Winfield could return this week after missing the previous six with a foot injury. What does his return mean to the secondary?
Winfield's return is huge, particularly when you're lining up against a team with one of the most talented receivers in the league. Winfield goes back to being the #1 guy, which allows Cedric Griffin to go back to the #2 spot and Benny Sapp can go back to being the nickel guy instead of starting. Winfield's presence in stopping the run also can't be underestimated, as there's no better run-support corner in the NFL, in my opinion. Every account I've read says that he's rested, healed, and ready to go, and I hope to heck we see him out there tomorrow afternoon. His presence against the Bengals could be huge, both against the run and against the pass.

4) Jared Allen is a beast. How should the Bengals game plan against one of the league’s best pass rushers?
I think you have to do what the Cardinals did against him... you constantly have to have someone over on his side along with the tackle, whether it's a tight end, a running back, or sometimes both. If you try to block Jared Allen one-on-one for the better part of a game, he's going to beat you unless you have a truly elite left tackle like a Joe Thomas or someone along those lines. You need to double-team him, you need to chip him, try to get him frustrated... and then hope that the rest of the line does their jobs against the Williams Wall and Ray Edwards (who is having a surprisingly good season thus far).

5) Sidney Rice is having a career year, already surpassing the 1,000-yard receiving mark. However, he only has four touchdowns. Does the Vikings offense tend to look away from their receivers in the red zone?
I'm not sure if it's that they "look away" from Rice in the red zone. . .it's just that Favre has been so good about spreading the ball around to all of the options he has this season that Rice has just been in the wrong place at the wrong time, for lack of a better way to put it. Whenever a Favre-led offense gets into the red zone. . .and it's been this way ever since he was in Green Bay. . .the tight end is the guy he loves to look for, and the nine touchdown catches for Visanthe Shiancoe this season are a testament to that. The go-to guy in the red zone can change from one day to the next. . .it might be Shiancoe, it might be Rice, it might be Bernard Berrian, it might be Percy Harvin...it just depends on matchups and who's open at that particular time. That's the thing that Favre has brought this year, the fact that defenses can't just key on one particular guy in the passing game.

6) Arizona limited Adrian Peterson to 19 yards rushing on 13 attempts. What did the Cardinals find out that shutdown Peterson?
They found out that the Vikings were way too quick to give up on the run, which is something that's been rare this season, and something that absolutely can not happen against the Bengals. As good as Brett Favre has been this season, the Vikings' offense needs to run through Adrian Peterson. Granted, Peterson seems to be a bit more impatient this season than he was his first two years. . .he's not letting his blocks develop at times. . .but he's also not getting a ton of help from the offensive line. According to the folks at Football Outsiders, the Vikings have the most "stuffed runs" in the NFL this season, and after what the Vikings' offense has done on the ground the last two seasons, that's completely unacceptable. I would be thoroughly shocked, however, if Peterson had a performance against Cincinnati as bad as his performance against the Cardinals.

In Defense of Señor Ochocinco

ericj69 — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 21:55:11 -0000

Love him or hate him, he's already made Sunday's game a lot more interesting.

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He Riverdanced in the endzone. He putted the football with a pylon. He gave the football CPR. He declared himself a future Hall of Famer. He sent "gifts" to opposing defensive backs on game weeks. He made a list of "who covered him" in 2005. He raced a freaking horse. He got fined for asking not to be fined. He proposed to a Bengals cheerleader. He jumped into the Dawg Pound and did a Lambeau Leap. Just last week, he donned a sombrero and poncho. This week, he's threatening to blow the Vikings horn if he scores. (As Gonzo already pointed out, that's gonna be pretty tough considering we play that through the speakers.)

He legally changed his last name from Johnson to the Spanish pronunciation of the digits of his jersey number. He may change his last name again to the Japanese pronunciation of the digits of his jersey number. No, I'm not kidding. You may be choosing Chad Hachi Go in your fantasy drafts next year.

He violates the NFL uniform policy more often than Tiger Woods violates his marriage vows. He Tweets roughly 647 times a day. He made up two totally nonsensical phrases, "Child please" and "Kiss da baby", while stealing the show on HBO's "Hard Knocks" this season. (Not to mention his new line of condoms.) He...well that's all I can think of right now, but I'm sure I'm missing at least a handful of other crazy things he's done.

And you know what? Even though I'm not a Bengals fan, I love every last bit of it.

If you're a regular reader of the Daily Norseman, you know that I often have fun at the expense of opposing players. Just take a look at my recent posts about T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Jay Cutler. But when it comes to Chad Ochocinco, I can't help but like the guy.

Most people outside of southwestern Ohio can't stand him, and I understand why. Chad is a cocky, showboating loudmouth who's starved for attention and wants the spotlight permanently affixed on him. When he scores, I'm guessing the phrase "act like you've been there before" has never crossed his mind. Each premeditated celebration makes Vince Lombardi and Knute Rockne spin in their graves. Basically, he's the polar opposite of "old school".

Which, in my opinion, makes him so likable. My formative years of NFL fandom included the Ickey Shuffle, the Redskins "Fun Bunch", the Super Bowl Shuffle, and Billy White Shoes Johnson. I fell in love with the NFL because it looked like so much fun. These days, I'm all too aware that the NFL is big business before everything else. But Chad's antics, as sophomoric and cheesy as they are, remind us that the game can still be fun.

So there, I said it. I defended #85. I truly enjoy him. Deal with it. But that doesn't mean I'll enjoy anything he does on Sunday.

Barring a collapse rivaling that of Tiger Woods' public image (that's right, two Tiger jokes--gotta strike while the iron's hot), the Cincinnati Bengals are going to win the AFC North. The Steelers conveniently took themselves out of contention last night, and Cincy needs only one more win or Ravens loss to clinch. And you know what? They've earned it. They've earned it by grinding the clock with a punishing rushing attack, not making many mistakes, using opportunistic special teams, and leaning on a vastly improved defense. So basically, they've been very anti-Bengal-like this year. Which is always a good thing.

What isn't good for the Bengals is how they match up with the Vikings. So you want to run the football 35 times? Don't think the Vikings' #3 rush defense will have a problem with that. Plus Antoine Winfield should finally be back in the lineup this week. (Of course we've heard that before from "The Foot That Cried Wolf".) Although I just got done heaping praise on Ochocinco, it isn't like Cincinnati's offense has been that explosive in 2009. Gonzo covered this yesterday by pointing out that they haven't lit up the scoreboard since blowing out the Bears in Week 7.

Yet the Bengals are still winning because of their defense. Defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer has his group of NFL castoffs playing downright amazing. If he doesn't get a head coaching gig with all the vacancies sure to be created after the season, I'd be shocked. Favre & Co. will have to perform much better than they did in Arizona to move the ball.

I think it's going to be a battle on Sunday. But if you think the Bengals are going to come to the Metrodome and beat the Vikes this week, I only have one thing to say to you.

Child please.

Prediction: Vikings 24, Bengals 19

My Week 14 NFL picks, guaranteed to be mediocre as ever:

Saints over FALCONS: The Saints have officially entered the Madden Zone. Not only do they put up Arena League points, they had the classic "No F---ing Way" game against Washington last week. Everyone that has played Madden knows that game. It's when no matter what you do, the computer steals the game from you. Even if it looks like your guy was down, the game still rules it a fumble. Even though you swear your accuracy was right on, your kicker pushes the game-icing field goal wide right, leaving you saying "No f---ing way" about fifteen times. Sound familiar Redskins fans? Anyway, stick a fork in Atlanta. The injury bug ate whatever chance they had of being contenders in '09.

Jets over BUCCANEERS: I don't care that the Sanchize is out because he's allergic to sliding. The Bucs are 31st in the NFL in run defense. Rex Ryan should be pistol whipped for every Kellen Clemens pass play he calls past 20 attempts.

PATRIOTS over Panthers: A rematch of Super Bowl XXXVIII! But this time around, the "XXX" stands for how New England's second half offense is about as good as the movie "XXX" starring Vin Diesel (that's not a good thing); the "V" stands for how Carolina's fan base is "Very depressed" about their quarterback situation; and the "III" stands for tally marks for each play that Randy Moss will actually try during this game. Or is it tally marks for the amount of baby mama's that Tom Brady will have by the end of his career? I can't decide. If I were Tom, I'd go after Victoria's Secret model Miranda Kerr to be Baby Mama #3, because I chose her for my gratuitous picture of the week.

Bills over CHIEFS: Judging by how the past few weeks have gone in the NFL, this will somehow end up being the best game of the week. I just can't figure out how that could possibly happen though.

RAVENS over Lions: Too bad this game is the same week as our game against the Bengals. Because if the Lions win this game, it's obvious that the AFC North is incapable of beating terrible teams. Then if our Cincy game was later in the season, the Vikings could just wear 2008 Lions jerseys and cruise to victory!

Packers over BEARS: The biannual game where I hope both teams lose and suffer many season-ending injuries. Alas, my dream never comes true. I'd like the Bears to show up and help us clinch the division, but that's kind of like asking Tiger Woods to win a Husband of the Year Award. (BOOM! Just when you thought it was safe! A TIGER WOODS JOKE TRIFECTA!)

TEXANS over Seahawks: The Poulan Weed Eater Independence Bowl matchup of the week. Sure, they're still playing, but both sets of fans know that this game doesn't mean anything.

COLTS over Broncos: I'd love to kidnap Colts head coach Jim Caldwell fifteen minutes before kickoff and see if anyone on Indy's sideline notices before halftime. I say no. What a great gig that guy has.

Dolphins over JAGUARS: I absolutely HATE picking games that involve either of these teams. The Fins and Jags can beat anyone and lose to anyone on any given week. I'm just glad they're playing each other this week so it only counts for one incorrect pick.

RAIDERS over Redskins: Washington better watch out here. If they're not careful, they're going to mess up their formula of getting a big lead on a team only to choke it away late. If the Skins get up by more than a score on Oakland, I'm fairly doubtful that the Raiders will allow choking like that on their watch.

TITANS over Rams: A Super Bowl XXXIV rematch! Except one team started their season six weeks late and the other team should have just quit after beating the Lions. This is also my Eliminator pick of the week--still kickin' at 13-0!

COWBOYS over Chargers: San Diego has won 15 December games in a row. The Cowboys have stunk in December since the old Levi's Button Your Fly shirts were in. Picking the Chargers is too obvious here, right? (Says the guy that limped to 9-7 in his picks last week.)

GIANTS over Eagles: The Eagles could easily win this game. But I'm rooting for Andy Reid to pull one of his classic clock management botch jobs to allow the Giants to win in the waning seconds, followed by Eagles fans realizing in horror that they just signed this guy for three more years. Because after dealing with Philly fans in the Dome the past two seasons, I wish nothing but terrible things to happen to them at all times.

Cardinals over 49ERS: Yep, I'm officially terrified of facing the Cardinals again in the playoffs. That was a Grade A whoopin' they put on us last Sunday. Drew Margary already wrote about this in his weekly Deadspin Jamboroo, but it's worth mentioning again because I noticed it as well on Sunday night: Anquan Boldin is just pissed off at the entire world. He's still upset about his contract situation, and he will let you know it with each joyless reception and subsequent icy glare to anyone that dares to glance at him. Ochocinco has approximately 4,500 times more fun playing football than Boldin does every Sunday.

Last week: 9-7

Season so far: 132-61 (including picking Thursday night's game wrong)

Back Away From the Panic Button, Vikings Fans

Gonzo — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 13:21:03 -0000

See this? Way too early to think about pressing it. (Picture via Dr. Tedi Koehn)

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The 2008 Arizona Cardinals.

The 2007 New York Giants.

The 2006 Indianapolis Colts.

Those three teams have a couple of things in common. The first is that they all went to the Super Bowl. Two of those three teams, the Giants and Colts, won the Super Bowl in the years listed. But that's not the main thread that connects them. . .not for the purposes of this post, at least.

Each of those three teams went on to represent their conference in the biggest game of the year. . .and they each had a game late in the season where they got their butts collectively handed to them in a manner that made people wonder if they were legitimate contenders or not.

Remember Minnesota's trip to Arizona last season? Tarvaris Jackson threw four touchdown passes, Adrian Peterson ran wild, and the Vikings blasted the Cardinals to the tune of 35-14. . .and that wasn't even the worst loss the Cardinals suffered that month, as they went out the next week against the New England Patriots and got hammered by a score of 47-7. But, lo and behold, five weeks after the loss to the Patriots, there they were, representing the NFC in the Super Bowl, and were two minutes away from winning the whole ball of wax.

How about the 2007 Giants? Does the Vikings' trip to the Giants Stadium that year ring any bells for anybody? Going into the game without Adrian Peterson, the Vikings got a 60-yard Jackson to Sidney Rice touchdown on the second play from scrimmage, intercepted Eli Manning four times (returning three of them for touchdowns), and throttled the Giants 41-17. But the Giants just kept on going despite the blowout, and a couple months later they went to the Super Bowl and derailed what would have been the only 19-0 season in NFL history by knocking off the Patriots. The 2007 Vikings? 8-8, and watching the playoffs from home.

The 2006 Colts? In Week 14, they lined up against their division rivals from Jacksonville. . .and got thrashed in every conceivable way. The Colts gave up 375 rushing yards. . .yes, three hundred and seventy-five yards allowed on the ground. . .en route to a 44-17 pummeling by the Jaguars. And it's not as though the Colts were resting starters by that point or anything. . .Peyton Manning threw 50 passes (with no touchdowns), but the Colts allowed Maurice Jones-Drew to gash them for 166 yards and two scores, and Fred Taylor chipped in another 131 yards and a touchdown. Even something named Alvin Pearman tossed in 71 yards and a score. But, again, on the first Sunday in February, there was Manning and company holding the Lombardi Trophy aloft and telling everyone they were going to Disney World. The Jags finished 8-8 and missed the post-season.

Yes, the Vikings got handled by the Cardinals last night, and everyone saw it. The Cardinals are, in my opinion, the best team Minnesota has seen all season, and they played like it. Still, even with the loss to the Cardinals, the Vikings are 10-2 on the year. . .the only two teams that have better records are New Orleans and Indianapolis. That's pretty damn good. Their schedule the rest of the way isn't terribly menacing, and they still have a two-game advantage on everyone else in the NFC for the conference's other first-round bye for the post-season party. . .a party that they will, undoubtedly, be attending. I'll concede that we're not getting home field at this point, but a first-round bye would still be nice.

Even after last night, the Minnesota Vikings are one of the NFL's best teams. There are four regular season games and, hopefully, a first-round bye for the Vikings to solve this problem. Hopefully Antoine Winfield will be back soon. . .and if he's available if we see the Cardinals again, I think things might be a little different. . .and the Vikings can get back to what they do best, which is pound the opposition and win football games.

One loss, no matter how big or how seemingly one-sided, is reason for panic. Last night's thumping by the Cardinals is no exception to that rule. The bigger story is the loss of linebacker E.J. Henderson, and hopefully there will be some news on him later on today. As soon as we hear anything, we'll let everyone know.

Will Warner and Winfield Play Tonight?

Gonzo — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 16:36:57 -0000

Upon inspection of the injury reports for both teams going into tonight's duel in the desert, each team has one very significant name listed, and the status of each of those players is up in the air at this point in time.

For the Vikings, that player is obviously cornerback Antoine Winfield, who has been absent from the Vikings' lineup since the second quarter of the Baltimore game. We had heard that #26 would be back for the game against the Seattle Seahawks, but found out that he had been deactivated prior to the start of the game. Winfield himself had said that he expected to be back for Minnesota's game against Chicago, but he was inactive last week, too. With the Vikings having to face the best trio of receivers they'll see this year, and perhaps in the entire National Football League in Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston, the Vikings could certainly use the services of Winfield this evening.

Of course, the Vikings' pass defense has been doing okay without Winfield, and have gotten some playing time for some of the guys that are lower on the depth chart, such as Karl Paymah and rookie Asher Allen. That experience will only help this team as the post-season draws closer.

Winfield has told the Star-Tribune that he will be a game-time decision for tonight. I hope that he's out there, but I think the Vikings can still win without him.

Speaking of the Cardinals' passing game, their main concern lies with the man responsible for pulling the trigger on that attack, quarterback Kurt Warner. Warner suffered a concussion against the St. Louis Rams a couple of weeks ago, and missed the second half of that game, along with the Cardinals' loss to Tennessee last weekend. Warner's agent has said that he would be "surprised" if Warner didn't start for the Cardinals tonight, but there hasn't been any truly definitive word as to how clear Warner is at this point. Obviously, the Arizona offense becomes much less frightening if Matt Leinart starts at quarterback, but the Vikings' defensive line will definitely need to get after whichever player starts this evening. Minnesota leads the NFL in sacks, but the Cardinals have only allowed 18 sacks in 2009, fifth-fewest in the NFL.

These two players could potentially be difference makers in tonight's matchup of two on the NFL's best teams. It will be interesting to see if either or both of them take the field for their teams.

Time for the Road to the NFC Championship to Take a Detour

ericj69 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:58:09 -0000

After Sunday night's game, they'll need to stick these outside of University of Phoenix Stadium if people are looking for the road to the Super Bowl.

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The Arizona Cardinals, defending NFC Champions, are well on their way to winning their second consecutive NFC West title this year.

If you would have read me that sentence two years ago, I would have told you to send me the link to the rest of the article from The Onion, since it was obviously a joke. (If you had read me that sentence in 2001, I would have just assumed you knew nothing about the NFL since Arizona was obviously in the NFC East. You hypothetical dumbass from the past.)

But it's true. Arizona somehow made the Super Bowl last year. The same team that Tarvaris Jackson torched for an easy Minnesota 35-14 win in Arizona last year. And even after Vince Young gave Matt Leinart an acid flashback of the 2006 Rose Bowl last week, the Cardinals are still perched atop their division by two games. (Note: I totally didn't mean to make the lame "Cardinals/perched" pun there, but I'm not surprised that I accidentally did.) Technically, the road to the NFC Championship still runs through Glendale, AZ.

But only until Sunday night, if everything goes well for the Vikes. A win for the Purple means the road to Super Bowl XLIV takes a detour away from Arizona.

If the Vikings prevail in the desert, they'll guarantee that Arizona would get the third seed in the NFC at the very best, assuring the Cardinals will have to go on the road to make it back to the Super Bowl. (Yes, I realize they won a road game to get there last year, but they still won the NFC Championship at home. Just stay with my flimsy detour theme here. I posted a picture of a sign and everything.)

But just like creating real detours, we shouldn't expect this one to go smoothly. Yes, Favre is exponentially better than T-Jax. However, we're not the only team that has a Social Security-eligible quarterback that's still playing well. I know Kurt Warner missed last week's game, but I'd be surprised if he didn't play based on what I've heard this week. We have a strong core of receivers in El Sid, Percy, B-Twice, and Shank. But Larry Fitzgerald is still the best receiver in the game (you can mention Andre Johnson here, but he's tied with Fitz at the very best). Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston are nothing to sneeze at either. If ever there was a game for Antoine Winfield to make his glorious return to the field, it's this one.

And would you look at this--the Cardinals even brought a little bit of a running game this year. They even average more than 2.3 yards a carry! Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower aren't greatest backfield committee ever (that's Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson and Marcus Allen, of course) but they've added a dimension to Arizona that wasn't really there last year.

Most of us know that stopping the Cards' offense will be tough. But what about the D? From what I've seen of Arizona and learned from the guys over at Revenge Of The Birds, they're better than the numbers show. They're 24th in total yards, but still in the top half of the league in points allowed and tied for fourth in sacks. Defensive lineman Darnell Dockett could give our line some trouble. Karlos Dansby leads the team in tackles and will be a tough test for our running game. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is not only annoying to type out, he's also annoying to play against. If Favre can't duplicate his zero-interception November, DRC is always a threat to take picks back to the house. I'd still take Minnesota's defense over Arizona's any day, but it doesn't mean we'll be able to duplicate the easy day in the desert we had last year.

While it would be nice to take another step towards Dome-field advantage, it would also be good to get another victory against a winning team. The only issue the critics have taken with Minnesota this year is "who have they played?" To be honest, the critics have a point. As Bill Simmons said today in his article:

Combined record of the nine teams they've defeated this season: 39-71. Let's give them 2009 Winston Wolf Memorial "Don't Start Sucking Each Other's Popsicles Yet" status.

A win on the road over the 7-4 Cards would give us a little more credibility heading towards the playoffs.

Unfortunately, the detour from Arizona might go south to New Orleans even if Minnesota is victorious on Sunday. I'm sure most of you saw the Saints absolutely disassemble the Patriots on Monday night. The Saints offense is formidable to say the least, but that's not what worries me most about N'awlins. That Superdome crowd was absolutely BONKERS the entire game. Could you imagine them in an NFC Championship Game with the franchise's first Super Bowl appearance on the line? My ear drums are throbbing just thinking about it. Let's hope the Saints drop a couple games down the stretch so we can show them how loud the Metrodome can get in late January. But first thing's first--let's start the construction for the detour on Sunday!

Prediction: Vikings 31, Cardinals 24

The rest of my Week 13 NFL picks (home team in CAPS):

COLTS over Titans: These teams are six games apart in the standings, yet they may be the best two teams in the AFC right now. The Titans make an intriguing upset pick here--until you realize it's still Vince Young vs. Peyton Manning. Young is a winner, but he still throws like Uncle Rico.

Texans over JAGUARS: Would you ever pick either of these teams to win a game if your life depended on it? This game could a blowout either way and I can honestly say I wouldn't be surprised. Let's just move on before I change this pick like I already have six times.

Broncos over CHIEFS: The Chiefs as a team are as broken as Tiger Woods' Escalade. But don't tell that to Jamaal Charles, your 2009 Late-Season Fantasy Pickup From A Terrible Team MVP!

STEELERS over Raiders: The Steelers are on a three-game losing streak. If you had to pick an NFL team to play at home to break a three-game losing streak, wouldn't just about everyone pick the Raiders? I sure would.

Saints over REDSKINS: Yeah, that whole "Detour to Minnesota" theme of my column isn't going to get any help from Washington this week.

BENGALS over Lions: My Eliminator pick of the week--still alive at 12-0! If the Bengals lose two games in the easiest stretch of scheduling ever (Oakland-Cleveland-Detroit), they should be relegated to the UFL.

BEARS over Rams: Two weeks ago, the Seahawks came to the Dome and got pounded. They got to play the Rams the following week. Last week, the Bears came to the Dome and got embarrassed. They get to play the Rams this week. Call it the "NFL Scheduling Mercy Rule".

PANTHERS over Buccaneers: Jake Delhomme is out this week. Does that help or hurt Carolina's chances? Really, I'm serious. I've never even heard of Matt Moore until this week, but I can't imagine he'd be any worse.

Eagles over FALCONS: No Matty Ice for Atlanta this week. Which means they'll have to switch to McNabbelob Golden Light.

Chargers over BROWNS: I literally ran out of jokes to make about the Browns. So instead, I'll treat you to the best NFL theme song ever:

As a bonus, I'll also treat you to the Charger cheerleaders:

There--I bet you've forgotten all about those rotten Browns by now!

GIANTS over Cowboys: It's December. You know what that means Cowboy fans! Time for some melting down!

49ers over SEAHAWKS: Meh. I just need Vernon Davis and Frank Gore to have big weeks for me to clinch the regular season title in one of my fantasy leagues. So I'm picking San Fran.

Patriots over DOLPHINS: The Patriots don't lose two games in a row. I think it's a league rule or something.

Ravens over PACKERS: I have a bunch of Packer fan friends that are heading to Lambeau for this game. Please oh please, Baltimore, ruin their day for me!

Last week: 11-5

Season so far: 123-54 (including getting Thursday's game wrong)

Interview With Pro Football Focus Reveals Excellent Analysis, New Jinx

ncoolong — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 12:51:14 -0000

BTSC writer Neal Coolong met up with one of the writers of Pro Football Focus, a web site dedicated to providing thorough and detailed statistics on every NFL player in every game. Neil and six other members of the site have been in existence since 2007, and were recently mentioned in SI writer Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback column (beating Coolong to the punch, he's yelled at King since then). The interview took place over several emails in the past two weeks, here are the highlights:

NC: First off, thanks for doing this. I'll admit, when a co-worker of mine gave me the link to this site, my productivity at work was reduced greatly. So maybe I shouldn't be thanking you. But if I'm pissed at anyone, it's at Peter King for beating me to giving you guys the recognition I feel you deserve (No. 8 of 10 Things I Think I Think). Who does he think he is, anyway? Give me a little background. Who are you guys? How many people do you have on staff? How long has the site been up?

PFF: The site in some form or another has been up since 2006. In it’s initial guise it was more a vehicle for displaying my limited data than anything else. There’s a whole section on how we got going in the "About" tab under the "History" section which explains a lot more about how we started.

At the moment we have 7 guys working on the site. Interestingly (or perhaps shockingly) all bar one of us are based outside the US with the majority of us based in the UK.

NC: That brings me to the issue of grading, which is thoroughly explained here.

I'll paraphrase you, "We are not grading style or technique; just result...We've all heard the terms knee-bender, stiff hips, inconsistent footwork or over-extension etc. but as far as we're concerned it doesn't matter whether you know what they mean or not. All we care about is the result."

So you're grading the pure results of the play, black and white, win or lose. Personally, I love that approach in terms of ranking an evaluating individual players. Answer me this, though, in particular reference to the defensive backs, do you feel the amount of statistical data you keep on each player fairly takes into account the roles of that particular player in that particular defense?

For example, Ike Taylor and William Gay play in a different defensive scheme than, say, Antoine Winfield. While I am not surprised Winfield scores as highly as he does, do you feel your evaluations hold up when compared to his peers? Is it fair? Or is your intention more to show the results of individual players, without the concern of how they stack up against their peers?

PFF: I don’t think we’ll ever get a full view on secondary or WR play until the NFL allow us access to game film so we can actually grade each player on each play (I’m led to believe hell will be freezing over shortly so we should be OK). I think until then everything is a fudge to some degree, regardless of the scheme.

That said I think we do more than anyone else with equal access. Most people who delve into advanced type stats will just note down whose in coverage on a play. While we also compile the base stats for coverage we do it more for completeness than anything else. The truth of the matter is we try to use a combination of factors when rating CBs but go more off our grading than anything. The base statistics can tell a lot of lies regardless of whether the coverage is zone, man or some combination. Let me give you a few examples:

A team run a WR screen at a CB who is in man coverage. The CB is double-teamed by screen blocks and can do nothing but because of missed tackles by other players the screen goes for 80 yards and a TD. The CB was clearly in coverage and hence the yardage goes against him.
A CB is beaten badly for a reception but the WR then drops the ball.
Another CB is beaten badly and gives up a 70 yard TD by peeking in the backfield (Chris McAlister has patent pending on this) but the play is called back on a holding call

In the first of these the CB has done nothing wrong and is penalised by having 80 yards and a TD logged against him. In the latter two the CB has been poor but is rewarded with incomplete passes to his credit. Obviously in our grading the CB would not be penalised in the first but marked down significantly in the others.

To come back to the original question of schemes, I think the situation with CBs is fairly straight forward. The CB almost always has initial responsibility for the man across from them, he starts off in their zone and to all intents and purposes is in man coverage until such time as he’s handed off to a LB (on a crossing route) or a Safety (on a deeper route). As soon as he’s handed the guy off (and that point is normally very easy to judge) he no longer has responsibility. So the CB stats, taking into account my reservations above, are pretty accurate from a standpoint of responsibility and performance.

So I guess the question is back to you… can you give me an example where or why you think a Steeler CB may be at a disadvantage in our ratings? We were pretty high on both Bryant McFadden and William Gay last year.

NC: I wasn't suggesting they were at a disadvantage, I was simply using the Steelers players in a 3-4 zone blitzing scheme as opposed to Antoine Winfield, who plays in a Cover 2. I'd likely be hunted down and beaten up if I brought up Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph.

But since you mentioned Bryant McFadden, and I felt he was a very strong producer on last year's Super Bowl team, do you feel his play has really fallen off that much (currently 79th on your CB rankings)? William Gay hasn't produced, per your stats, nearly as much this year as he did last year.

I'm gonna have to plant a phrase on you: The Pro Football Focus Jinx. For Steelers Players. Cornerbacks in Particular.

There maybe something to be said for an overall scheme benefitting an individual players skills more than another, but that's a separate issue. Lemme ask you this, do you think you could apply your approach on Pro Football Focus to coaching? Do you think there is a measurable way to analyze coaches, beyond the normal wins/losses metrics? I understand any coach will tell you wins are all that matters, but do you think there is a statistical measurement for coaches?

PFF: Certainly Bryant doesn’t look as solid as he was last year. In 2009 he was in coverage for 344 snaps, gave up 342 yards and a TD, defensed 5 passes and intercepted a further 2. In addition he held up well in run defense and was pretty consistent in terms of having very few off days but never particularly setting the world on fire. It was therefore no surprise at all when he was picked up by the Cards who’d got a bit fed up with Rod Hood’s inconsistency and having two corners playing in that style (I’m not sure anybody thinks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will stop being "mercurial" any time soon) was a liability.

That said he appears to have morphed from a relatively safe pair of hands into Rod Hood II. Even excluding the W10 game vs. Seattle, Bryant has already been in coverage only 23 snaps less than last year and has had some decent performances but also some bad games. So far he has been marginally better than Rod Hood in 2008 but isn’t as sure as he was last year for you guys. In those 321 snaps he hasn’t given up a TD and he’s defensed 8 passes which is great but he’s also given up 467 yards including 171 YAC. All this suggests a more aggressive approach since the move and I’ve seen that on tape too.

Regarding William Gay I’d just be a little cautious when using the rankings in that way (a few points is very insignificant) and what we’ve seen is a reasonably average NFL corner who has had some good days (most notably against the Chargers) but has been less effective of late. Last year he was above average but as a part-time player and he’s already had a good couple of games worth of snaps in coverage more than last year.

If you wish to talk jinx it’s not the Steelers who should be concerned…… we’ve had a far more negative effect on the Bengals at a player level. We name Evan Mathis and Keith Rivers to our mid-season All-Pro and both are injured. You should be paying us to put their CBs on the team too!

On the coaching question it’s something I notice analyzing games; the whole play is executed well but it doesn’t work… at all. You wonder what they were thinking when they drew it up. That said it doesn’t happen often enough to be significant in my view and as we break down each play, 95% of the time I’d guess, a play works or fails because individual players either blow assignments or do something extraordinary. Obviously this is a coaching responsibility too for either a) not getting someone good enough to do the job b)not teaching them well enough or c)not motivating them sufficiently to see it through.

I suppose something we could do to check at a strategy level what coaches are performing (although I have absolutely no idea as to how relevant it might be) is to compare overall team performances on offense and defense with records. For example I would contend the Saints have a lot of below average players on defense (and some very good ones in the secondary) but haven’t lost a game and rank 17th in points allowed and 21st in defense. It might be expected that they would be a bit worse than that.

NC: Well, we still may see Cincinnati in the playoffs, so there's still time. How much would it cost to ensure the ratings of Joseph, Hall and their impressive nickel back, Morgan Trent, go way down? I'll get with Blitzburgh (our publisher) and work out some kind of payment. I'm not talking dismemberment or death here, just maybe like a debilitating stomach flu...

Obviously with the amount of games/plays you're watching on a regular basis, you have to develop a sense of overall teams as well. You mentioned the Saints, do you think they are the best team in football through nine weeks? Does any team have a clear advantage over the field in terms of Super Bowl contention right now?

PFF: It’s interesting because no team is without some significant weakness and I could genuinely still see 13 teams winning. My Preseason pick was the Vikings, mostly because of their defense but as it turned out their offense has been better than suspected and their defense worse.

I’m really sorry to tell you this but regardless of last weeks result I still think the Steelers are the best team in the AFC (and probably the NFL); just too much balance, too many quality players in every unit. Apologies for damning you to a season without playoffs.

In the NFC it’s difficult to look past the Saints but the cracks that have always been in the defense are starting to widen and I’m not going to get off an 8-1 horse at this stage.

NC: I was like you, I called the Steelers and Vikings at the beginning of training camp (pre-Favre) and it was because of the defense of those teams. Both of the Steelers recent championship teams had slides at or right after the mid-season point. There's still a ton of football to be played.

There seems to be enough football to play, and a tight enough race to wonder who will be league MVP. Who's your horse in that race?

PFF: For me MVP is all about what would happen if you remove that player from the team. We saw last year without Brady the Patriots were still functional as were the Steelers when Ben was hurt. Minnesota was still a playoff team without Favre. I think the same would be true this year too.

Without Brees and Manning I don’t think either the Saints or the Colts are over .5 and truthfully I believe the Colts record would be 2-7 not 9-0. When we analyze QBs we grade each pass and In the past we have seen games where we have not given Peyton a single negative mark. I think he’s likely to go down as the best of all time and a worthy MVP in 2009.

On a lighter note the most ridiculous comment I’ve ever heard was a sentence from Dan Patrick in SI which started with the phrase "It’s debatable which Manning brother is the better QB………"

NC: Almost as ridiculous as the idea that Kansas City would beat Pittsburgh...any given Sunday, right?

PFF: I’m really sorry, as soon as I said "I liked the Steelers in the AFC", I knew something like this would happen.

NC: Ok, we're blaming you.