SB Nation - Gus Frerotte

The Case for Brett Favre as 2009 NFL MVP

Gonzo — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 04:10:33 -0000

by Jerry Holt - AP

Will this man be tipping his hat to the folks that vote for the MVP award after this season is over? (AP Photo/Star Tribune,Jerry Holt)

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Yes, I know that we've only played ten games this season, and I know that this might come off as being a bit premature. And I know that this is going to be met with cries of my bias towards players on my favorite team and all that other fun stuff.

But if the 2009 NFL season were to end today, I find it hard to believe that anybody but Brett Favre would be named the NFL's Most Valuable Player. (I'll take "Things that I never thought would cross my keyboard" for $400, Alex.) After all the drama, the hand-wringing and the whole "will he or won't he" saga that played out over the weeks leading up to the season, it's possible that Favre is having the best season of his career in a season where he reached 40 years of age.

Thus far, all discussions of the MVP award have focused on three main names. . .Favre, Saints quarterback Drew Brees, and Colts quarterback Peyton Manning. Yes, Brees and Manning have been having great seasons thus far, obviously, and as of now both of their teams are still undefeated in 2009. But look at the numbers. There's no way that you can definitively say that either of those guys has been better than #4 through the first ten games of the year.

	ATT	COMP	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	QBR	Sacks	Fumbles (Lost)
Drew Brees	320	218	68.1	2,746	22	9	105.8	13	8 (4)
Brett Favre	310	216	69.7	2,482	21	3	112.1	21	1 (1)
Peyton Manning	388	271	69.8	3,171	21	9	102.7	8	2 (0)

Despite the slow start that Favre got off to, he has significantly picked up his game as the season has progressed. He has as many touchdown passes as Manning in 78 fewer attempts, and only one less than Brees in ten fewer attempts. His interception percentage thus far (less than 1%) is significantly better than that of Brees (2.8%) or Manning (2.3%). In addition, Favre has played ten games this season, and has played turnover-free ball in seven of those ten contests. Conversely, Brees has turned the ball over at least once in seven of the ten games New Orleans has played so far, as has Manning for Indianapolis. Obviously, since their teams are undefeated, they were able to overcome those turnovers and lead their teams to victory, but Favre's turnover total has been absolutely ridiculous thus far.

Even in the three years he was named NFL Most Valuable Player, Favre threw 13, 13, and 16 interceptions. This year, he's on pace to throw. . .five. The record for the fewest interceptions thrown by a QB that started all 16 games in a season is four by Steve DeBerg of the 1990 Kansas City Chiefs. I'm not sure if Favre can maintain the level he's currently at. . .after all, it could easily be argued that two of his three interceptions thus far came on passes that should have been caught (by Bernard Berrian against the 49ers and by Chester Taylor against Pittsburgh). . .but it's something to keep an eye on the rest of the way.

"But Favre has Adrian Peterson," the naysayers will tell you. My response to that objection is simply "so what?" Six other teams had the chance to draft Adrian Peterson. . .it's not Minnesota's fault that they figured out that, sometimes, the obvious decision really IS the best one. Besides, judging by the way teams have been defending the Vikings thus far in 2009, it appears as though they're still under the impression that the Vikings are starting Gus Frerotte at quarterback. Despite the fact that Favre has been tearing apart defenses this year, Viking opponents have still insisted on stacking the line of scrimmage instead of devoting men to coverage, because they're scared to death of the best running back in the NFL (as well they should be). The difference is that this year, Favre is taking advantage of those coverages and finding open targets all over the field. After the first eleven weeks of the season, the Vikings are the only team in the NFL with six different players with more than 25 receptions. . .Sidney Rice (50), Percy Harvin (36), Visanthe Shiancoe (33), Bernard Berrian (32), Chester Taylor (27), and Peterson (25).

(By the way, off the subject of Favre. . .how great is it that Peterson is averaging 100 yards rushing and more than one TD per game, and everyone seems to be asking "What's wrong with Peterson?" The kid has set the bar so high, it's damn near ridiculous.)

"Oh, but Favre has been so lucky this year," the naysayers will tell you. Sure, the pass to Greg Lewis against the Niners was something that Favre pulled completely out of his posterior, we know that. The only problem with this argument is that, over the course of a season, lots of teams get lucky along the way. . .look no further to a little more than a week ago, when Manning's Colts were the beneficiaries of one of the dumbest coaching decisions I've ever seen. That dumb decision gave them a chance to win. Back in Week 7, the Saints found themselves trailing the Dolphins by 21 points down in Miami. But Brees rallied his team in the second half and, even though his stats that game were pretty bad (three interceptions and a lost fumble), he led a bunch of scoring drives and led his team to victory. Heck, you could make the case that the Vikings' lone loss this year came as the result of bad luck (garbage tripping penalty on Jeff Dugan, screen pass bouncing off of Taylor's hands, and so forth).

Winning a championship in the NFL is like winning a big poker tournament. . .as anyone that's ever won a big poker tournament will tell you, you don't win without coming back from the dead a few times. The Vikings have done that this season, sure, but so have the Saints and the Colts, and they did it on the strength of the guys behind center.

"But Favre has all that talent around him," the naysayers will tell you. Seriously, are you going to tell me that the Saints and/or Colts are that devoid of talent compared to Minnesota? Of course not, because such an assertion would be ridiculous. Yes, the Vikings are a highly talented team, but this brings me to one of the things that Brees, Manning, and Favre all have in common. . .they make the people around them better. Before this year, nobody outside of Viking fans and South Carolina alumni knew who Sidney Rice was. Now, under Brett Favre, he's a household name. And remember all the junk about Percy Harvin when the Vikings drafted him, about how his hands weren't that great and that he couldn't run routes? Yeah. . .don't hear a whole lot of that any more, do you? Brees has played portions of his time in New Orleans without Marques Colston, without Reggie Bush, without Deuce McAlister, and with a spate of other injuries. For crying out loud, Manning is putting together the season he's currently having with two of his main targets being a couple of guys named Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. Did YOU know who either of those guys were six or eight weeks ago? I won't lie to you. . .I didn't.

There are quarterbacks that elevate the game of those around them, and those that need to have their game elevated BY those around them. Favre, Brees, and Manning are examples of the former. . .we'll see a shining example of the latter when we the Vikings host the Bears on Sunday afternoon.

Obviously, Brees, Manning, and Favre are all having outstanding seasons this year. They quarterback three of the top teams in the league, and are all definitely going to be factors in the post-season. While the numbers are the same, there's one thing that, in my opinion, separates Favre from the other two quarterbacks in this debate.

Manning and Brees were supposed to be this good. Favre, on the other hand, was supposed to be done for. After all, even the most twitterpated of Favre lovers couldn't possibly have imagined him putting together a season like this, especially after missing all of camp and all the other things that the media massively overhyped going into the season. The reports of a "schism" in the locker room because of the Favre signing turned out to be a bunch of garbage, as #4 has been roundly embraced by his teammates and, by and large, by the Minnesota community. Sure, most people thought he was an improvement over Tarvaris Jackson. . .and I say that as a guy that still thinks Jackson has a future in this league. . .but there was nobody out there that could have predicted the heights that he could potentially take the Vikings to on the NFL stage.

Again, there are still six games left to be played in the 2009 NFL regular season, and this talk might be premature. But if you weigh everything and look at the league MVP race, I honestly thing Brett Favre is in line to win an unprecedented fourth trophy. Whether it's because of overall performance or the impact that they've had on their team, Favre is the MVP in either sense.

Whether you agree or disagree, it's certainly something that makes for a good debate at this point.

Opponent History: Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

sireric — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 13:00:15 -0000

Buffalo Bills (3-7) vs Miami Dolphins (5-5)
Sunday, November 29, 2009 at 1:00 PM EST
Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

The Buffalo Bills have begun to play division opponents for the second time. The first meeting this year had the Bills heading into Miami with high hopes for the season, while the Miami Dolphins had just lost Chad Pennington for the year and were still without a win. We all know how that match-up ended.

Chad Henne, he of the too-small helmet and scrunched up forehead, leads the Dolphins into Buffalo this week. The last five meetings at the Ralph after the jump.

Sunday, October 17, 2004: Bills 20, Dolphins 13
Drew Bledsoe. Jay Fiedler. Need I say more about the suck involved in this game? Both sides got a touchdown and two field goals out of their offenses, but the difference was a Takeo Spikes pick-six. The Bills' D came to play in this game, recording five sacks along the way. Aaron Schobel (2.5), Ron Edwards (2.0) and Pat Williams (0.5) did the honors. Other than that, there isn't a whole lot to tell.

Sunday, October 9, 2005: Bills 20, Dolphins 14
The score and date looks eerily similar to the year before. This time, the Bills jumped out to a 17-0 lead on the strength of a Willis McGahee one-yard touchdown run, an Eric Moulds touchdown from Kelly Holcomb, and a Rian Lindell 24-yard field goal. Gus Frerotte led the Dolphins back by hitting Will Heller and Randy McMicheal for scores to bring the Fish back to within three points. Lindell would hit his second field goal of the day to cap the scoring and help preserve the win for Buffalo. Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney each had a sack in this game.

Sunday, December 17, 2006: Bills 21, Dolphins 0
J.P. Losman tossed three touchdown passes, one each to Robert Royal, Josh Reed, and Lee Evans. That was more then enough scoring, as the Bills' defense shout out the Cleo Lemon/Joey Harrington lead Dolphins offense. Schobel and Kelsay proved yet again that they are only effective against the Dolphins by getting another half-sack each.

Sunday, December 9, 2007: Bills 38, Dolphins 17
The Bills jumped out to a 21-0 lead thanks to a George Wilson fumble return for a touchdown and not one but two Trent Edwards-to-Robert Royal touchdown passes. Samkon Gado put the ball in the endzone for the Dolphins twice, but those scores sandwiched a Lindell field goal and an Evans touchdown catch. Evans would catch one more to continue his dominance over the Dolphins. Both Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch rushed for over 100 yards in this game. Being that Cleo Lemon was at QB for the Dolphins, this was of course a good day for the Bills' D numbers-wise. Four sacks and two interceptions (one each by Donte Whitner and Terrence McGee) added to the eight fumbles by the Dolphins. Of course, the Bills were only able to recover 3 of those 8.

Notice a pattern? The first two games had the Bills playing the Dolphins almost a year apart to the day and winning by almost identical scores. The second two have the Bills winning by identical margins (21) almost a year to the day apart. The dates are also the same - 17 and 9. Weird.

Sunday, December 7, 2008: Dolphins 16, Bills 3
The Bills' first-ever regular season game played in Toronto gave the Canadian fans quite the show. The Bills had almost nothing on offense that day, gaining only 163 total yards. J.P. Losman was the Bills leading rusher with 53 yards. Of course Losman offset his rushing prowess by getting sacked 4 times...

History: Packers Crushed in Minnesota Last Season 27 to 28

Brandon — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 12:00:31 -0000

Although the Green Bay Packers narrowly lost the game last season in Minnesota on a late missed FG by K Mason Crosby, it wasn't really that close. 3 INTs by QB Gus Frerotte, one returned for a TD by FS Nick Collins, and a punt return for a TD by CB Will Blackmon, kept the score close. Since they can't count on two TDs like that again, can they fix the mistakes of 2008 in time for the game on Monday night?

Year	Yards Gained	Yards Allowed	Turnover Margin	Final
2008	184	361	+3	L 27-28
2007	384	382	0	W 23-16
2006	394	312	+2	W 23-17

Both Brad Childress and Mike McCarthy were hired before the 2006 season, so anything before that probably has little bearing on the current matchup. A few things stand out from these games:

When QB Brett Favre takes the field, he'll be the 4th different QB to start their home game against the Packers in the past four seasons. (2006-Brad Johnson; 2007-Kelly Holcomb; 2008-Gus Frerotte). QB Daunte Culpepper started every home game against the Packers from 2000-2005.
The Packers only turnovers were two fumbles in 2007.
In 2007, Brad Childress gave the Packers a giant gift by limiting RB Adrian Peterson to 12 carries.
In 2008, the offensive line crumbled as the offense was limited to 184 yards.

After all the sacks and hits QB Aaron Rodgers has taken this season, reading about the pass rush he faced last season is deja vu all over again. Although the pass defense kept them in the game with 3 INTs, the run defense collapsed as Peterson ran for almost 200 yards. Childress didn't make the same mistake he made in 2007.

The 2008 game, with only 184 yards on offense, stands out like a fluke. But the problems they had last season (poor pass protection, struggling run defense) still remain. Especially if LT Chad Clifton is unable to play. The run defense has already allowed two 100 yard rushers in the first three games. Can we really count on the pass protection and run defense to keep them in the game? Or will the problems from 2008 return on Monday night?

Analysis: Atari Bigby Injured

Brandon — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 13:00:23 -0000

Mike McCarthy announced at his Wednesday press conference that S Atari Bigby "had a significant injury" and "we're looking at a time frame of at least four weeks." I'm starting to feel really bad for the guy. After a promissing 2007 season, last season he was injured at Detroit in week 2, and now he's hurt in the very first game.

McCarthy has announced that S Aaron Rouse will start in place of Bigby. If they have to dig deeper, my guess is that S Jarrett Bush is the top backup. I'm not sure if they really feel S Derrick Martin is a starter; they might think he's just a special teams ace.

It's hard to tell who's the better safety; Rouse or Bigby. They each started 6 games in 2008, but they each battled injuries too. Rouse had missed some preseason games with a bad hamstring, but he looked fine against Chicago last week. Here's how the pass defense did in games they started last season:

Bigby:

Game	Passing Yards Allowed
Week 1 – Minnesota	178
Week 2 – Detroit	282
Week 9 – Tennessee	180
Week 10 – Minnesota	151
Week 11 – Chicago	159
Week 12 – New Orleans	323

Rouse:

Game	Passing Yards Allowed
Week 3 – Dallas	260
Week 4 – Tampa	149
Week 6 – Seattle	83
Week 7 – Indianapolis	229
Week 16 – Chicago	142
Week 17 – Detroit	225

Bigby started in the week 2 game when QB Jon Kitna imploded in the 4th quarter, although Bigby was already knocked out by that part of the game, and the week 10 game at Minnesota when they owned QB Gus Frerotte. He was also the starter during the week 12 fiasco at New Orleans when the pass defense was shredded.

Rouse started the loss to Dallas in which most of those yards were given up on a long bomb to WR Miles Austin and a big screen pass to RB Felix Jones. QB Brian Griese and QB Charlie Frye were awful during the Tampa and Seattle games. QB Peyton Manning had 229 yards passing, but that doesn't include the 99 INT for a TD he threw to Rouse. The pass defense wasn't great in the week 17 game against the Lions.

So the pass defense was pretty good when Bigby started, except for the disaster against the Saints. It seems like the pass defense was better in the games when Rouse started, but it's not a huge difference. That would confirm what I expected; that Bigby is the weak link in the pass defense and they're a little better when Rouse starts.

But there has to be a reason the coaches have never seemed to consider taking the starting job away from Bigby. Based on the coaches determination to start Bigby ahead of anyone else, I'm sure the Packers will lose something, but not a lot, in pass coverage with him out.

Predicting the Arizona Cardinals Record: Part 3

Andrew602 — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 11:00:11 -0000

Last week was the second week of predicting the Arizona Cardinals record for the 2009 season. At the midway point of the season, the Cardinals look to be 5-3, which most may agree is a very respectable record, and may have them at 1st place in the division at that point. Last week's may have also been the toughest stretch of the season, and the Cardinals are projected to finish 2-2 in that span. This week, things are similar, as the Cardinals begin with 2 division rivals, followed by two competitive games.

Week 10: vs Seattle Seahawks

Key Additions: WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, DT Colin Cole, CB Ken Lucas, DT Cory Redding, LB Aaron Curry

Key Losses: LB Julian Peterson, DT Rocky Bernard, WR Bobby Engram, RB Maurice Morris

Analysis: As stated in part 2 of this segment, Seattle enjoyed a swarming amount of injuries in 2008. They lacked 2nd stringers to cover for their 1st stringers when the injury bug attacked. Seattle hopes to be fully healed in 2008, yet long time, future hall of fame offensive tackle, Walter Jones, has already had back problems this offseason, and is about to go through knee surgery which will take him out indefinitely. Seattle gets a healthy Matt Hasselbeck back at the helm of the offense, and added a wide out threat in TJ Houshmandzadeh.

What to watch for: After predicting a win for the Cardinals on the road in Seattle already, the Seahawks will be heading into this game, hoping to get their revenge. If all stars are healthy, we should be in for a good showing. At this point in the season, the Cardinals may be looking to secure a playoff birth, and getting this against a divisional opponent would be nice. Watch for a competitive game, as Hasselbeck likes to play tough against the Cardinals year in and year out.

Key Match up: Kurt Warner vs Seahawks defense - Warner will be looking to carve up the Seahawks defense, hoping to push the Cardinals into the playoff race.

Prediction: Win - If the Seahawks can't beat the Cardinals in Seattle, what makes it different in Arizona?

Week 11 - At St. Louis

Key Additions: SS James Butler, C Jason Brown, FB Mike Karney, OT Jason Smith

Key Losses: WR Torry Holt, OT Orlando Pace, QB Trent Green, S Corey Chavous

Analysis: For the last two years, the Rams have mustered together a dismal 5-27 record. Hoping to erase recent memory, the Rams hired Steve Spagnola, former defensive coordinator from the Giants, to lead their team to the promise land, and a respectable record. They've also broken away from the past, recently releasing long time veterans, Tory Holt, Orlando Pace, and Corey Chavous. The Rams goal for 2009 is to put together a tough team, that remains competitive in every game. If this is possible, we may see something different then what we've seen in years past.

What to watch for: The Rams spent a lot of money this offseason trying to revamp their offensive line that's been unable to protect the quarterback the last few years. Watch for a battle between the Cardinals defensive line and the Rams offensive line. We'll probably see a warm welcoming for Kurt Warner as usual from the St. Louis fans.

Key Match up: Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell vs Jason Smith and Jason Brown

Prediction: Win - Until they prove otherwise, the Rams defense won't be able to stop Kurt Warner and the offense.

Week 12 - At Tennessee

Key Additions: DT Jovan Haye, WR Nate Washington, CB DeMarcus Faggins, WR Kenny Britt

Key Losses: DT Albert Haynesworth, WR Brandon Jones, CB Eric King

Analysis: Last year, Tennessee began with a perfect record, establishing themselves as the best team in the league for the regular season. They lost in the playoffs against a tough Baltimore defense, and hope to build off of last year. They didn't do much this offseason to do that, as they allowed Albert Haynesworth to sign a $100 million dollar contract with the Washington Redskins. They still remain secure on defense, with a quick secondary, and a lot of experience between the linebackers and the defensive line. The big question mark is offense. Their version of smash and dash went through a divorce this offseason, and they have an aging vet at quarterback(which we all know isn't a bad thing). With a 3rd string wide receiver at best in Washington, and a rookie in Britt, their offense may be the deciding factor of how successful 2009 will be for the Titans.

What to watch for: The Cardinals will face two former Cardinals of the "not so glory days" in Dave McGinnis, the Titans linebackers coach, and defensive end Kyle Vandenbosch. Another headline I'm sure we'll hear about is the battle between the two grey beards. This should be a battle in Tennessee and a potential Super Bowl 44 match up. ; )

Key Match up: Gerald Hayes vs Chris Johnson and LenDale White - Hayes will have his hands full.

Prediction: Loss - Playing the Titans in Tennessee is never easy, and it especially won't be for the Cardinals.

Week 13 - Vs Minnesota

Key Additions: QB Brett Favre, QB Sage Rosenfels, WR Percy Harvin

Key Losses: C Matt Birk, QB Gus Frerotte, S Darren Sharper

Analysis: The Vikings ended last year on a sour note, losing to the Eagles on their home turf. Aside from that, they were one of the best rushing teams in the league, mainly due to having the best running back in the league in Adrian Peterson. They also featured a fierce defense, possessing the best defensive line in the league. The biggest problem facing the Vikings was the lack, or lack-thereof a quarterback. Tavaris Jackson was thought to be the quarterback of the future for this team, until they found out he was playing not to lose. They experimented with Gus Frerotte but he didn't perform any better. Up until this week, they thought that Sage Rosenfels was going to be the answer, until they signed Brett Favre. With Favre at the helm, they may have just became one of the biggest threats in the league. Only time will tell if this works, and we may see a repeat of what Brett did last year with the Jets.

What to watch for: The most obvious point to watch for is how competitive the Cardinals come out for this game. The Vikings came to Arizona last year and embarrassed the Cardinals, who were trying to establish themselves as one of the best teams in the league at the time. Another factor to watch for is how the defense gets after Brett Favre. He torched the Cardinals in New York last year, throwing for six touchdowns. Revenge is likely to be in the air.

Key Match up: Brett Favre vs Cardinals secondary

Prediction: Win - This game could go either way. The Vikings beat us last year in our place, but hopefully the Cardinals learn from getting too comfortable with a lead in their division.

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Arizona Cardinals record after 12 games - 8-4

The Cardinals go 3-1 in part three of predicting their record, and it could have been worse. Squeaking out a win versus the Vikings can happen, and at this point in the season, the NFC West may all be a wrap. What do you think of the record so far? How likely is it that the Cardinals get revenge on the Vikings?

Chicago. . .It's a Delusional Town. . .

Gonzo — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 15:43:39 -0000

More photos » by Hannah Foslien - AP

"Hey, thanks Brett. . .everybody's talking about you so much, it's like they forgot that I'm here."(AP Photo/Hannah Foslien)

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According to fans of the other teams in the NFC North, over the past few weeks, the Vikings have been screwed because they were going to sign Brett Favre, screwed because they then failed to sign Brett Favre, and most recently screwed because they actually signed Brett Favre. Apparently the Vikings have been screwed so frequently over the past month or so that you'd think Hugh Hefner had moved the Playboy Mansion to Eden Prairie.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all about enthusiasm for your team and everything. But there's a fine line between enthusiasm and delusions of grandeur, and the Chicago players, fans, and media have not only gone over the line, but obliterated it like Pete Rose running over Ray Fosse in the 1970 All-Star Game. They'll tell you that they're not afraid of Brett Favre in Minnesota, or what the Vikings' offense can potentially do with him at the helm.

But they are. You're damn right they are. To suggest otherwise is nothing short of hilarious.

Leading the parade of delusion is a guy named Jon Greenberg from something called ESPNChicago. . .apparently there isn't an ESPNMinneapolis, ESPNGreenBay or ESPNDetroit yet. . .who sounds like he's already chalking up two wins for the Bears over Minnesota.

But enough about the fans -- what does Favre's return mean to the Bears? Well, for one, they don't hate it.

Second, get those interception celebrations ready.

Instead of trying to pick off journeyman Rosenfels, they'll have to put their hands into harm's way as the oldest Viking this side of Eric the Red throws bullet pass after bullet pass over, under and around receivers. It's not as if the Bears don't have enough film on the guy. They know his tendencies, his strengths and his weaknesses. Two of his top receivers, Berrian and Bobby Wade, are ex-Bears. Percy Harvin is a rookie. Sure, Favre will make them respect the pass now, but I'm betting that the vets on the Bears' defense are licking their collective chops at the thought of Favre in purple. All those picks, all those sacks.

Hilarious.

See, before the Bears get too excited over the prospect of "all those sacks" and "all those picks," there's a teeny, tiny little X-factor that they seem to be forgetting. He wears #28 and lines up behind the quarterback on most offensive plays for Minnesota. His name is Adrian Peterson. Maybe you've heard of him. I know most Bear fans have heard of him. Want proof?

Date	Carries	Yards	YPC	TD
14 Oct 2007	20	224	11.2	3
17 Dec 2007	20	78	3.9	2
19 Oct 2008	22	121	5.5	2
30 Nov 2008	28	131	4.7	1
Totals	90	554	---	8
Averages	22.5	138.5	6.2	2

The next time the Chicago Bears stop. . .or even slow down. . .Adrian Peterson will be the first time that the Chicago Bears stop. . .or even slow down. . .Adrian Peterson. Adrian Peterson is to the Chicago Bears what Michael Jordan is to the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Bears have faced Peterson twice with Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback (the two games in 2007) and twice with Gus Frerotte at quarterback (the two games in 2008). They've tried seven-man fronts, eight-man fronts, nine-man fronts, blitzes, run blitzes, stunts, and everything else that the idiot they call Bob Babich can throw at the Vikings' offense. . .

And they've never even come close to stopping him.

And you know. . .in between sending warm, heartfelt text messages to the mother of his son, Brian Urlacher hasn't gotten any younger, and was an outright liability for the second half of last season. Tommie Harris. . .or, as we here in Minnesota know him, "the guy that would be #3 on the DT depth chart if he was a Viking". . .isn't getting any healthier. Don't forget Charles Tillman, who according to the Football Outsiders Almanac, gave up more first downs + touchdowns in coverage than any other CB in the NFL last year, and the 6th most yards in coverage in the league. Rumor has it that he's exploring an endorsement deal with Quizno's, because he's. . .MMMMMMMMMMMMMM, TOASTY. The only guy on Chicago's defense worth being scared of is Lance Briggs, and at last check, he can't do the entire job on his own.

The Bears can't stop Adrian Peterson with Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte calling the signals. What in the sweet blue hell are they going to do against a guy that can actually beat the blitz and make teams pay for putting 8 or 9 guys in the box on every play? It's going to be great to see. . .all those holes to run through. All those missed tackles. All those touchdowns.

And I can already hear the cries of "OMG BUT WE GOT JAY CUTLER WHARRGARBL" emanating from the Windy City. While it's true that Brett Favre threw the most interceptions in the NFL last year. . .does anyone want to take a stab at who was #2 on that list? If your answer was "Jay Cutler," please come down and collect your prize. Favre had a quarterback rating of 81.0 with the Jets last season, and Cutler blistered that with a mind-blowing. . .um, 86.0? That's it? Really? Man. . .and here I thought this guy was the second coming of Sid Luckman. And while Favre played the last month of the season with an injured bicep tendon, Cutler's only affliction during the same time period was attempting to throw passes with both hands wrapped around his throat. The last time we saw Cutler, he was getting pimp-slapped from one side of San Diego to the other by the Chargers in a win-or-go-home game for the AFC West crown.

One other minor caveat. . .he no longer has Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal to make him look good, either. Oh, yeah. . .Devin Hester has looked great in practice thus far. And really, why wouldn't he? After all, he gets to go up against the Bears' secondary every day. And for all the hype Matt Forte gets, the run offense that Cutler played with in Denver last year averaged almost a full yard/carry more than Chicago's did last year despite nearly having to bring back Sammy Winder to carry the mail.

Do the Vikings have the best QB in the NFC North? No. The thing is. . .neither does Chicago. As much as it pains me to say it, the best QB in the NFC North resides in Green Bay. . .and if the Packers' transition to the 3-4 goes more smoothly than I expect it to, there's a hell of a lot more reason to be scared of Green Bay in this division than there is to be of Chicago.

The Bears, their fans, and the Chicago media expect everyone to. . .if I can borrow a phrase. . ."crown their asses" immediately. They've acted like the Vikings hardly exist since just before the 2009 Draft. But, at last check, the Vikings are still the team to beat in this division. . .and until the Bears can somehow manage to even slow down Adrian Peterson or get a quarterback that shows that he's worth even 10% of the hype that he's received, the Vikings are STILL the team to beat in this division. I'm sure Bear fans don't like hearing that. . .and, quite frankly, that's just too damn bad. It's a fact, and they can deal with it in their own special way.

Handicapping the Rams QB race

VanRam — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 15:03:19 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

St. Louis Rams rookie quarterback Keith Null has the chance to make an impression with starting QB Marc Bulger sidelined for the next two weeks or more.

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Despite a career's worth of sacks, broken ribs, and all the injuries St. Louis Rams QB Marc Bulger has had to deal with in just the last few seasons, I'm kind of surprised that we just took it for granted that Bulger would be under center for the Rams all season. Ok, so there's no need to panic at this point. It is just a slightly broken pinkie finger costing him a few weeks of preseason play; doomsday scenarios might be a bit premature. Now, fans, coaches, and pundits will have a good chance to see what kind of QBs the Rams have behind Bulger as the backups take center stage over the next several weeks.

Kyle Boller

The Rams signed Kyle Boller after their dalliance with Gus Frerotte washed out like a bad prom date. That might have worked out for the best, as the 38-year-old Frerotte conjured memories of what happened to the Rams last aging backup QB. A first round pick in 2003 out of California, Boller is an experienced starter who played for a run-first team where offense was never the top priority. Boller missed the 2008 seasons because of a shoulder injury. His career got off to a bumpy start, and he was injured nine games into his rookie season (against the Rams no less). He started all 16 games of his sophomore season. He was injured in the opener of his third season, though came back for a 58% completion rate and 1700+ yards. The Ravens brought in McNair and made him the starter for the '06 and '07 seasons. Boller saw significant time in relief of the oft-injured McNair.

Pros: Boller has the prototypical look of a QB. On top of that, he is no stranger to a starting role, having started 42 games with the Ravens. During his time in Baltimore, he quarterbacked a run-first offense. It was also an offense that relied heavily on a tight end, Todd Heap, and the running backs had reception totals close to the totals for receivers. So, the Rams 2009 offense shouldn't be a huge leap for him. Boller also has a great arm and can get some distance and velocity on his throws. But...

Cons: He's struggled with accuracy in the past, throwing deep balls well away from receivers chugging downfield. He's also faced plenty of criticism for his judgment, particularly in the red zone. He did have some memorable games, though, including a Monday night nail-biter against the Patriots in 2007 and some fine work in relief of McNair. Another knock against Boller is his injury history, which includes a concussion and turf toe, of all things.

Last word: Boller showed progress with the Ravens, but it can be argued that the funky QB situation there, particularly with McNair brought in, set him back. He should have some maturity to go with his on-field skills now, and he has received the chance to resurrect his career and cash-in at the end of the season.

Brock Berlin

This could be Berlin's third season and the Rams third QB. He had one start in 2007, throwing one INT and no TDs.

Pros: He has some mobility, probably more than any other QB on the roster, and that could help him salvage more than a few bad plays and beat out a sack or two. He also has a nice sidearm throw that will be useful throwing short passes in traffic.

Cons: Berlin was never known for his accuracy, in college or the pros. His size is also a concern.

Last word: Berlin has an uphill climb to keep a roster spot. The Rams don't have much invested in him either as an undrafted holdover from the last regime. No offense to the guy, but if the Rams have to start him it will be a long season.

Keith Null

A sixth round pick in this year's draft, the front office people and scouts liked what they saw in the D-II product. He passed for a gazillion yards at West Texas A&M and it got him noticed.

Pros: Small school or not, he has a great college track record for accuracy and results. Starting just two seasons, Null threw for more than 9,000 yards and completed more than 67% of his passes. Two passes, including a TD, made a memorable impression on Rams fans in last week's preseason game against the Jets. By all accounts, he reads defenses well and knows when to throw the check down. At 6'6" 222 lbs, Null has the size you like to see in a QB.

Cons: Those are some impressive college numbers, but he didn't pick them up in the SEC. Can he throw the long ball with enough velocity to connect? Impressive or not, Null is still a rookie, and that usually means he will need time to adjust to this level.

Last word: One of the more intriguing guys on the roster, especially after his debut game last week. Null will get an serious opportunity to prove himself with Bulger on the bench for a couple weeks. If he gets a shot with the first team during that time, it will be interesting to see what he does with it.

Talking the spread, Stafford and successful drafting teams with Football Outsiders

Mocking Dan — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 12:15:03 -0000

Every year the brilliant guys from Football Outsiders put out a phonebook-sized almanac packed cover-to-cover with nuggets of solid gold information. Bill Barnwell, managing editor of the book, joins us today to answer some draft-related questions.

Given how popular the scheme has become in college, is there a sound analytical way to evaluate a spread quarterback's future success in the NFL?

You know, at this point, I don't think there is a way to do so strictly with statistics. I really believe that the scouting element needs to be mixed in healthily when you're judging college players, especially with players in those sort of situations and schemes that they're not likely to play in at the pro level.

What's also interesting is that some of the preconceived notions that people had about what does and doesn't work at the pro level are being challenged now. Very few people would've suggested that the Wildcat would have worked in the NFL, let alone enjoyed the amount of success that it has. I don't know if any team would move to a spread offense for a variety of reasons, but hey, if the Chiefs were willing to implement the Pistol, the spread could be next.

How much does the spread skew the Lewin Career Forecast due to generally high completion percentages the scheme produces? (The LCF is used by FO to associate college-to-pro success.)

At this point, not that much; the reason why is because the Lewin Career Forecast only applies to quarterbacks taken in the first two rounds, and there haven't been very many spread quarterbacks with a grade of that caliber. Pat White, I suppose, would be the first example.

The case of Tim Tebow will end up being very interesting; he has great numbers heading into 2009, and if he stays towards the top of the draft and plays a full season, he would be projected to be an elite quarterback. I think he'll end up being the test case for how the spread affects the LCF.

From the Outsiders perspective, which teams have the most and least successful drafting teams and how do you come to that conclusion?

We're still working on refining our metrics for draft success. The tricky thing is that it's hard to define a "successful" draft, because there's no quick-and-dirty way to call a offensive lineman or a linebacker "successful". The metric of choice so far has been games started, but even that's subject to the nature of the teams involved and what holes they have filled.

The metric I play around with is GSAA (Games Started Above Average), which is still a work in progress; the idea is to compare the games started for a player over the course of his career, relative to how many games he was eligible to start, to those of all the players who were taken within 10 picks of him.

A good example would be Tom Brady, who rates out as one of the best draft picks ever by this methodology (realistically, it would be hard to argue that he wasn't the best). GSAA would take Brady, the 199th pick in the 2001 draft, and compare him to every other quarterback that was taken from picks 189 through 209. The pickings are, as you might expect, extremely slim; the only player who really had much of a career after being taken over the same timeframe was Gus Frerotte. So the system would measure how many games Brady started per season, compare it to the average quarterback from that subset of players, and then measure how many games started Brady has above the league average over the course of his career.

We haven't updated GSAA for the '08 season yet (since it doesn't appear in the book and we've spent our time focusing on the content that appears in FOA 09), but since 2001, the best drafting teams in the league were the Ravens, Colts, Bills, Jets and Texans; I think the Texans are a little bit of a reach, because they're an expansion team and have had more holes up and down the lineup to fill with the draft than any other team.

On the flip side, we see the worst drafting teams in the league as the Broncos, Steelers, Lions, Vikings, and Seahawks. I really can't defend a draft metric that suggests that the Steelers are poor drafters, which is one of the many reasons why it's still under development.

Along the same line, is there a college program that has produced the best NFL talent?

Using that same metric, and looking strictly at schools that had 15 or more players drafted from 1995 through 2007, the schools that produced the best talent, pick-for-pick, above league average were Purdue, Hawaii, Cincinnati, Illinois, and Syracuse. A strange group, to say the least. The five worst schools were (in descending order of disappointment) Clemson, USC, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and Northwestern.

Is Matthew Stafford being set up for failure in Detroit based on his poor Lewin Career Forecast numbers and the general expectation that comes with being the No. 1?

I think so. It's very interesting that baseball is past the point where a guy can be a high draft pick strictly by having a big arm, but in football, we're not there yet. There's been a pretty clear history of quarterbacks with a huge arm but limited accuracy struggling as pro quarterbacks, and the Lewin Career Forecast sees Stafford being the next in the line of Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, and JaMarcus Russell.

The anecdotal argument I've made relates to David Greene, who preceded Stafford in college (short one year of D.J. Shockley) while playing for the same coach in the same scheme. Greene put up superior numbers to Stafford, even after you take out Greene's senior year (which would have presumably been Stafford's best), and washed out of the pro ranks without making any sort of impact. Now, college statistics aren't foolproof or anything close to it, but if you were going to give Matthew Stafford $40+ million in guaranteed money and devote the first overall pick to him, wouldn't you want him to have outperformed David Greene at the college level? I would.

Who are some of your top players for the 2010 NFL Draft and what makes you think so highly of those players?

Ah, see, I can't do that. There's just too much that happens in a year that can dramatically impact a guy's expectations. Think about Quentin Moses or Brian Brohm; or, on the other side, JaMarcus Russell. Projecting player performance is hard enough once you've got their full body of college film available, let alone 60 percent.

I will say that last year, I predicted in September that the Chiefs would take Matthew Stafford with the first overall pick. So I had the right idea. This year, I can't make the same guess. I know who I expect to have the first overall pick at the end of the season -- the Seahawks, who will be drafting first after the Broncos put up the worst record in football. They obviously wouldn't be taking a quarterback, though, so that leaves their pick up in the air.

Thanks to Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders for answering these questions. Make sure to check out the Football Outsiders Almanac this year. In it you'll find a huge NFL preview, great college football knowledge and some draft-related discussion. And, of course, the FO statistical analysis that made them so well-known.

Bringing a veteran QB into camp

shake n bake — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 16:02:34 -0000

Last year with Peyton Manning on the PUP the Colts brought in a pair of veteran backups, Quinn Gray and Jared Lorenzen. Now with Jim Sorgi out 2-3 weeks they may bring an experienced QB in again. There are still a few Quarterbacks with NFL experience remaining unsigned.

Free Agents

UFL (I don't know if there is an arrangement for the NFL-UFL on the poaching of their talent, but it's unlikely any of these guys will give up a starting UFL job for a few weeks in an NFL camp).

Brooks Bollinger (Orlando)

Quinn Gray (New York)

J.P. Losman (Las Vegas)

Jump for more info on the vets

Gus Frerotte (FA) last seen replacing a struggling Tarvaris Jackson and starting 11 games for the Vikings before a back injury took him out of the lineup. He completed 59.1% of his passes for 2,157 yards, 12TDs with 15 INTs for a QB Rating of 73.7 and ANY/A of 4.3.

Drew Henson (FA) most notable for sharing time with Tom Brady in college. Henson both thrown an NFL touchdown and has a major league hit. The downside being that he's thrown just 20 NFL passes (only 2 over the last 4 seasons) and had only 9 MLB at bats.

Craig Nall (FA) the long-time backup has the impressive statistic of more years in the league (9), than games played (7). He has played well in his few appearances holding a career QB rating of 123.8 over 48 attempts.

Marques Tuiasosopo (FA) A second round pick of the Raiders, Tuiasosopo has played just 13 games (2 starts) in 8 seasons, and hasn't posted a season with less INTs than TDs or a QB rating over 51 since his (4 attempt) rookie year. Awesome name though.

Cleo Lemon (FA) Lemon started half a season in Miami in 2007 playing well enough for an ill advised 3 year, 9 million dollar contract from the Jags, who cut him after just one year.

Brooks Bollinger (Orlando) Bollinger has played a handful of games as a backup since a mediocre half-season starting for the Jets with 56.4% completion, 1,558 yards, 7TDs, and 6INTs for a rating of 72.9 and 4.1 ANY/A

Quinn Gray (New York) We all saw Gray last year, through the first 3 preseason games he looked like the best QB of the 3 headed backup committee. Over the last two he threw 4 INTs to 1 TD and completed under 40% of his passes. He eventually caught on with the Cheifs where he had 8 very good pass attempts.

J.P. Losman (Las Vegas) The 2004 1st rounder couldn't stay healthy and regressed as a passer after a pretty good 2006 season. With Trent Edwards emerging as a viable starter and outplaying Losman, J.P. was given the boot.

Very slim pickings, Where for art thou Josh Betts? (actually he is available)

Brett Favre Staying Retired; Won't Play for Vikings in 2009

Gonzo — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 22:13:36 -0000

More photos » by Rogelio V. Solis - AP

You won't see this in Minnesota in 2009. . .and it won't affect where the Vikings finish in the NFC North one bit. Sorry, Bear and Packer fans!

Browse more photos »

It's been announced on ESPN and by Anthony in the FanShot below that Brett Favre has decided to stay retired and not come and play for the Minnesota Vikings in 2009.

Yes, this should be considered pretty big news. After all, this has been THE story of the Minnesota Vikings' off-season, and it has finally come to a conclusion that absolutely nobody expected.

Am I surprised? Certainly.

Am I angry or disappointed? Nope. Not even a little bit.

Why am I not angry or disappointed? Because the wonderful thing about this resolution to the Favre situation is this:

The Minnesota Vikings are still, with or without Brett Favre, the best and most talented team in the NFC North.

Lots of people won't agree with my assessment on that front, and quite frankly that doesn't matter to me. The facts are the facts. Last year, the Vikings won the NFC North with the combination of bad Tarvaris Jackson, Gus Frerotte, and good Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. And there's no reason to think that the combination of Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson won't do the same thing.

After all. . .at last check, the Vikings still had the best running game in the NFC North, possibly the best in the NFC, and maybe the best in the NFL. They also still have a defense that's one of the best in the NFL and light years ahead of any other defense in the NFC North.

Yeah, they have a perceived "hole" at the quarterback position. Ask last year's Packers how far an allegedly wonderful young quarterback and a vastly overrated defense will get you in the NFL. About 6-10, that's what it will get you. If the Bears and Packers want to try their luck with that formula again in 2009, more power to them. . .they'll finish in the same place they finished 2008. . .looking up at the best team in the North.

Oh, and Pro Football Talk is reporting that the Vikings have officially closed the door on Favre. Thank you, Brad Childress.

So, our long regional nightmare is over. Bring on the regular season. Viva la Sage! Viva la T-Jack! Viva la Booty!