SB Nation - Aaron Brooks

How To Hand Jake Delhomme His First Defeat in the Dome: Run, Baby, Run

saints-nation — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 13:00:22 -0000

by Bill Feig - AP

You'll have to forgive me for stealing Sheryl Crow's song title as part of the story headline but in this case it is quite apropos. After all, few things are as synonymous with football as a female singer/songwriter approaching her fifties, right? The Saints host the Carolina Panthers on Sunday and they'll have an opportunity to go 8-0 for the first time in Saints history. If there was ever a game where I would want the Saints the throw the ball less than 30 times, despite it being what they do best, this game would be it.

Panthers vs Saints coverage

Don't mistake me for saying I want the Saints to change the way they run their offense, or ignore what they do best. The Saints' bread and butter is when Brees runs a play fake and he's looking downfield for his crop of dangerous receivers. What I'm saying is I want the Saints to run the football in this game more than they ever have. That does not equate with don't pass, it equates with pass less and make the passes you do throw hurt more.

Some things to consider when coming up with a gameplan this weekend vs. the Panthers:

1. The Panthers' primary run stopper, Ma'ake Kemoeatu, is on injured reserve and is out for the season.

2. Two other defensive tackles (Louis Leonard and Corvey Irvin) are on injured reserve and out for the season.

3. The Panthers had to resurrect a corpulent 35 year old former Saint with asthma in Hollis Thomas to anchor their run stopping efforts.

4. The Panthers rank #1 in the league against the pass and #24 against the run. The Saints are 4th in the league in rushing (6th in passing).

5. The Saints average 4.5 yards per run, 10th best in the league, and the Panthers yield an average per run of 4.5 (good for 7th worst).

Plain and simple, if the Saints are getting 4.5 a pop per carry and the Panthers are giving up 4.5 per pop - the numbers work out pretty well. That's a first down after two downs of rushing if you're familiar with simple addition. I realize things don't always work out or unfold the way the stats would lead you to believe, but it's still a pretty simple formula. The Panthers can't stop the run and we're very good at it. For the last 3 years the Saints have been labelled as a "finesse team" or "soft", while Panthers football for as long as John Fox has been around has been predicated on running both the football and the clock whilst playing great defense. The beauty of this gameplan is we can give the Panthers a taste of their own medicine and beat them the way they've beat us consistently in recent years.

Oh, and one last thing. I hate Jake Delhomme. There, I said it. I hate that he comes back to Louisiana, hands us our tail, and runs his mouth up and down the sideline being as demonstrative as a buffoon. It's almost like he wants ME to know that he beat the Saints yet again in the Dome (and Tiger Stadium during the Katrina season). In case you didn't know, Jake Delhomme has never lost to the Saints in Louisiana as the QB for the Panthers. Sure, he says it's just another game in the media and seems passive enough... but I see him on the sidelines and I know better. Back when he was in New Orleans, I wanted him subbed in for Aaron Brooks when Brooks was injured. No need to rehash that, but the fact that the previous Saints' regime made an eggregious error and the fact that the current regime is still paying for it makes me sick. It makes me sick more than words can describe. I am sick of losing to Jake Delhomme at home. To be honest, I really don't even care how we do it, just beat Jake Delhomme. And you can believe that if we do, I'll be barking at him from where I'm sitting like a demonstrative buffoon. I'm pretty sure buffoons bark.

So let me ask you guys:

1. Will you be able to forgive me for the Sheryl Crow reference?

2. How effective will the Saints be running the ball against Carolina?

Talking Saints With Canal Street Chronicles, Part Two

Dave the Falconer — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 18:00:37 -0000

More photos » by Donna McWilliam - AP

Michael Turner, please prove our Saints-loving friend wrong! (AP Photo/Donna McWilliam)

Browse more photos »

This is the second half of a discussion with Saintsational, el jefe bloggerio over at Canal Street Chronicles. This discussion is much lighter on the Chinese food, but heavy on predictions that will probably not even be close to reality.

Read along after the jump!

Saintsational: Alright, back to football. What are the feelings of the average Falcon fan regarding Michael Vick now? Happy for him? Still wish he was in Atlanta?

Dave the Falconer: I think the average fan is slowly forgetting him. Which is as it should be. He's in Philadelphia now, doing what he do.

Saintsational: Blessing in disguise for the franchise?

Dave the Falconer: In many ways, yes. It changed the course of the franchise.

Dave the Falconer: It was like reaching for the last beef teriyaki. And finding a gold coin.

Saintsational: : Nice callback.

Dave the Falconer: Haha. Thanks. I think I just want chinese food.

Saintsational: Apparently.

Dave the Falconer: But yeah. I'm happy with the team as it is. Same for you and Aaron Brooks?

Saintsational: Ugh. I hated Aaron Brooks. Thankfully, he didn't need to commit a crime for the Saints to get rid of him. Drew Brees could probably be the single greatest thing to ever happen to the New Orleans Saints ever.

Dave the Falconer: Well, I disagree. He committed some interception-based crimes.

Saintsational: Ha, yeah. And fumble-based.

Dave the Falconer: There were those as well.

Dave the Falconer: But somehow, I liked the Saints better back then. Wonder why.

Saintsational: But what about now? Do the Falcons really have a chance to be the first to take down the Saints?

Dave the Falconer: Short answer?

Dave the Falconer: Yes.

Dave the Falconer: Long answer?

Dave the Falconer: They have a chance because they're about as familiar with the Saints as any team in the league, and because they're built offensively to hang with them. But it's going to be exceedingly tough..

Dave the Falconer: Are you at all afraid of the Falcons winning?

Saintsational: Yes. I'm slightly afraid.

Saintsational: Just because division games are always interesting.

Saintsational: Now wait a minute. Back to your statement. Are they built offensively to hang with this years defense? Or are you referring to last years defense? Cause this is a different ballgame now.

Dave the Falconer: Such hubris!

Dave the Falconer: Your defense looks markedly better, but we're not usually slouches offensively. I think we'll give you a good game.

Saintsational: 6-0 has made me a little cocky.

Dave the Falconer: Let me tell you a little story. Two years ago, my fantasy team went 6-0. I thought I was unstoppable. I ended the season 8-6.

Dave the Falconer: There's a lesson there.

Saintsational: The Saints have learned that same lesson in the past, believe me. But this year just feels different. They're beating teams with efficiency. They remind me a little of the '07 Patriots.

Dave the Falconer: Except without the teeth-grinding annoyance factor.

Saintsational: Thank you. I will say this though: They haven't played any division games yet. And those are the key. If they really are a good team, they will need to take care of business when it really counts. That's probably the only question remaining for the Saints and we're about to get our answer on Monday night.

Dave the Falconer: Number of times the announcers say "Drew Brees is like a big kid out there?

Saintsational: If they're saying that then it means the Saints are probably winning.

Dave the Falconer: True.

Saintsational: Got a prediction?

Dave the Falconer: I'll go with the answer I gave earlier. 35-24 Saints.

Saintsational: Wow! Predicting your team to lose. Interesting.

Saintsational: Smart man.

Dave the Falconer: Haha. Reverse jinx.

Saintsational: I am obviously going to pick the Saints to win and I think the score will be 42-24.

Dave the Falconer: Oh ho ho!

Dave the Falconer: 18 points? Wow.

Saintsational: You're right.. What was I thinking?

Saintsational: 45-24.

Dave the Falconer: Haha. You'll get what's coming to you, Captain of the Titanic.

Saintsational: Thanks for chatting with me, Dave.

Dave the Falconer: Always a pleasure.

Thanks again to Saintsational for the talk. Hope you all enjoyed it.

Saints on Sports Illustrated Cover. Get Ready to Lose.

Saintsational — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 11:15:25 -0000

If you're one of those Saints fans who thinks the team deserves more attention from the national media this year, well, you just got your wish. Sports Illustrated will do, right?

With Reggie Bush's acrobatic leap from Sunday's comeback victory gracing the cover of this weeks SI, it's safe to say the rest of the country is finally taking notice. Problem is, it may very well signal the end to this wonderfully "perfect storm" of black and gold we've been witnessing so far this season.

In case you're unfamiliar, there exists such a thing called the Sports Illustrated cover jinx. Ancient folklore has it that whenever a team or athlete is placed on the cover of Sports Illustrated, they are doomed for failure at any moment shortly thereafter. Even the magazine itself acknowledges it. Check out their list of famous cover jinx's.

Still think it's not true or that it can't happen to the Saints? Then you won't want to miss number thirteen on that SI jinx list. They've already been the victims of the fated curse. After defeating Carolina in the first game of the season immediately following Hurricane Katrina, Aaron Brooks and John Carney were chosen for the September 19, 2005 cover, shown hugging. The Saints went on to lose their "home game" at Giants Stadium as well as a crapload of other games that year.

But that's not all. Sports Illustrated's cover has jinxed the Saints a second time and it's not included on their list. Their January 22, 2007 cover featured a closeup of the face of Drew Brees. The article was about the Cinderella story Saints of the 2006 season who were just one win away from the Super Bowl, led by the stellar play of new quarterback Drew Brees. Ahh, those were the days. Unfortunately, the Saints had lost that NFC Championship game in Chicago the day before. It never fails.

So now that the Saints have finally gotten the respect they deserve and the attention of the entire country, I hope you're happy. Because it's all downhill from here. If the Saints lose to the Falcons on Monday night, you'll know why.

Be careful what you wish for.

NY Jets @ New Orleans Saints: Game Preview

Saintsational — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 11:00:35 -0000

NEW YORK JETS (3-0) AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (3-0)

SERIES

	JETS	SAINTS
SERIES LEADER	Series tied, 5-5
STREAKS		4 of past 5
COACHES VS. OPP.	Ryan: 0-0	Payton: 0-0
LAST WEEK	W 24-17 vs. Titans	W 27-7 at Bills
LAST GAME	11/27/05: Saints 21 at Jets 19. New Orleans QB Aaron Brooks throws for 3 TDs to hold off late rally by New York QB Brooks Bollinger & snap 6-game losing streak.
LAST GAME AT SITE	11/4/01: Jets 16, Saints 9. New York DE John Abraham records 4 sacks to lead Jets defense, which totaled 8 sacks & 3 turnovers, holding New Orleans to 246 total yards.
BROADCAST	CBS (3:05 PM CT): Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf. SIRIUS: 121 (NYJ), 123 (NO). XM: 105 (NO).

STATS

PASSING	Sanchez (R): 49-83-606-4-2-87.7	Brees: 67-97-841 (2C)-9 (1L)-2-118.1 (1L)
RUSHING	Jones: 48-181-3.8-2 (T3C)	Bell: 45-229-5.1-1
RECEIVING	Cotchery: 18 (T3C)-285 (3L)-15.8-1	Colston: 15-195-13.0-3 (1L)
OFFENSE	315.0	438.0 (1L)
TAKE/GIVE	+3 (T2C)	+4 (T3C)
DEFENSE	256.0 (2C)	312.3
SACKS	Harris: 2	Grant: 1.5
INTs	4 tied: 1	Sharper: 3 (T1L)
PUNTING	Weatherford: 40.7	Morstead (R): 46.5
KICKING	Feely: 22 (7/7 PAT; 5/5 FG)	Carney: 30 (2C) (15/15 PAT; 5/6 FG)

NOTES

JETS: Club aims to start season 4-0 for 1st time since ’04 & seeks 2nd consecutive win at NO…QB MARK SANCHEZ (1st round, No. 5) can become 1st rookie QB to start and win team’s 1st 4 games of season in Super Bowl era. Recorded 1st career rush TD last week. Aims for 4th consecutive game w/TD pass…For career, RB THOMAS JONES averages 102.6 rush yards per game when he has 20+ att. Has 4 rush TDs in past 3 against NFC. Teams are 31-14 (.689) when he records 20+ att…WR JERRICHO COTCHERY is averaging 95 receiving yards per game (285 total) in ’09 & posted season-high 108 receiving yards last week…TE DUSTIN KELLER averages 15.6 yards per catch in ’09…Defense ranks 2nd in NFL allowing 11 points per game (Denver, 5.3)…LB DAVID HARRIS registered 1st career INT last week. Leads team in tackles (21) & sacks (2) in ’09…S ERIC SMITH posted 1st INT of ’09 last week…DT KRIS JENKINS has 19 career sacks vs. NFC… Since ’01, Jets lead NFL with 11 KR-TDs…

SAINTS: Lead NFL with 120 points, most by team in 1st 3 games since 1968 (Dal., 132)…QB DREW BREES leads NFL with 118.1 rating & 9 pass TDs. Since joining NO in 2006, leads NFL with 14,751 passing yards, 97 TDs & 25 300-yard games. In past 23, Brees has 15 300-yard games (65.2 pct.)…RB-PR REGGIE BUSH has 25 career TDs (13 rush, 8 rec, 4 PR) & is only player in team history to score via rush, rec. & PR. RB PIERRE THOMAS rushed for 126 yards & 2 TDs last week. Has 11 TDs (8 rush, 3 rec.) in past 8. RB LYNELL HAMILTON scored 1st career TD last week…WR MARQUES COLSTON has 7 TDs in past 6. TE JEREMY SHOCKEY has 435 receptions since 2002, 3rd most in NFL among TEs. WR DEVERY HENDERSON averages 21.4 yards per catch in career. Had 30-yard TD in last game vs. NYJ…LB JONATHAN VILMA played 4 years with NYJ & was selected to Pro Bowl & named Defensive Rookie of Year. S DARREN SHARPER leads active players with 57 INTs. DE WILL SMITH had sack in last meeting. Had sack & 1st career INT last week.

New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills: Game Preview

Saintsational — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 18:00:17 -0000

Make the jump for the NFL's official game capsule.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-0) AT BUFFALO BILLS (1-1)

SERIES

	SAINTS	BILLS
SERIES LEADER	Series tied, 4-4
STREAKS	3 of past 5
COACHES VS. OPP.	Payton: 0-0	Jauron: 0-1
LAST WEEK	W 48-22 at Eagles	W 33-20 vs. Buccaneers
LAST GAME	10/2/05: Bills 7 at Saints 19 in San Antonio. Following early Buffalo TD, New Orleans scores 19 unanswered points in Saints' 1st home game at Alamodome following Hurricane Katrina.
LAST GAME AT SITE	9/9/01: Saints 24, Bills 6. New Orleans QB Aaron Brooks throws 3 TD passes to different teammates as Saints win on Kickoff Weekend. Saints RB Ricky Williams adds 93 rush yards.
BROADCAST	CBS (4:05 PM ET): Ron Pitts, John Lynch. SIRIUS: 91 (NO), 127 (Buf.). XM: 104 (Buf.).

STATS

PASSING	Brees: 51-68-669 (1C)-9 (1L)-2-132.9 (1L)	Edwards: 36-56-442-4 (T2C)-1-104.9 (2C)
RUSHING	Bush: 17-47-2.8-1	Jackson: 43-220 (2C)-5.1-0
RECEIVING	Colston: 11-128-11.6-3 (1L)	Jackson (RB): 11-108-9.8-1
OFFENSE	468.0 (1L)	357.0
TAKE/GIVE	+3	0
DEFENSE	347.0	397.0
SACKS	3 tied: 1	3 tied: 1
INTs	Sharper: 3 (T1L)	3 tied: 1 (T3C)
PUNTING	Morstead (R): 50.4	Moorman: 44.7
KICKING	Carney: 21 (T2L) (12/12 PAT; 3/4 FG)	Lindell: 21 (1C) (6/6 PAT; 5/5 FG)

NOTES

SAINTS: 1st team since 1968 Oak. to score 45+ points in 1st 2 games...QB DREW BREES completed 28 of 33 (84.8 pct.) for 339 yards with 4 TDs vs. 0 INTs for 149.1 rating in last game vs. Buf. (11/20/05 with SD). Has 9 pass TDs, tied for most ever in 1st 2 games (CHARLEY JOHNSON, 1965). Since joining NO in 2006, has 14,579 passing yards, most by QB in 1st 50 games with new team. In past 8 games, Brees has 25 TDs. Aims for 9th in row with 2+ TD passes. In past 22, Brees has 15 300-yard games...RB-PR REGGIE BUSH has 25 career TDs (13 rush, 8 rec, 4 PR) & is only player in team history to score via rush, rec. & PR...WR MARQUES COLSTON had 2 rec. TDs last week & has 7 TDs in past 5. TE JEREMY SHOCKEY has 429 receptions since 2002, 3rd most in NFL among TEs. WR DEVERY HENDERSONaverages 21.6 yards per catch in career...S DARREN SHARPER had 97-yard INT-TD last week, 9th INT-TD of career, tied for 2nd most all-time. Leads active players with 57 INTs. DE CHARLES GRANT had sack & FF in last meeting...

BILLS: Club has won 5 of past 6 in Sept. & aims for 5th consecutive win at home in Sept...DICK JAURON is longest-tenured Bills head coach since MARV LEVY (1986-1997)...QB TRENT EDWARDS has 7-6 (.538) record as starter at home. Edwards has 88.3 passer rating in past 3 at home vs. NFC...RB FRED JACKSON posted career-high 163 rushing yards (5.8 avg.) on 28 att. last week. In past 2, Jackson has totaled 328 yards (220 rush, 108 receiving)...WR TERRELL OWENS leads NFL with 110 TD receptions since 2000. Owens has reception in 185 consecutive games - 3rd longest streak in NFL history (JERRY RICE, 274; MARVIN HARRISON, 190). In past 5 vs. NO, Owens has registered 7 TD receptions...Since 2000, WR LEE EVANS leads NFL with 6 70+ yard TD rec...Bills became 1st team since Seahawks in '98 to record an INT-TD in 1st 2 games of season...S DONTE WHITNER posted 1st career INT-TD return last week...DE AARON SCHOBEL ranks 2nd in Bills history with 69 career sacks (BRUCE SMITH, 171).

The New 49ers OC: A Raye of Hope? (Part 2)

Florida Danny — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 16:00:10 -0000

This is Part 2 of my statistical look at Jimmy Raye II. Yesterday in Part 1, I evaluated Raye's previous offenses, compared his credecntials to those of the other 49er OC candidates, compared his OC performance with that of other current OCs, and compared his credentials to those of recent 49er OCs at the time that they were hired. In Part 2, I'm going to attempt a prediction for Raye's offense in 2009. Enjoy.

BACK TO THE FUTURE

From Part 1, we can draw 4 conclusions about Jimmy Raye II:

His previous offenses weren't as bad as some pundits and Chicken Littles seem to think, especially when you consider how relatively inefficient offenses were league-wide during those seasons.
He compared favorably to the other OC candidates, especially after Linehan was off the table.
He compared favorably to the more well-known OCs in recent 49er history.
His major drawback is a tendency for offenses to regress in his first year as OC.

Given these conclusions, what can we therefore expect from the Niners' offense next season (and beyond)? This is actually a multi-faceted question. In order to answer it, we need to examine how previous OCs's stats have changed after inheriting the 49ers' offensive personnel, as well as how the 49ers' stats have changed after inheriting a new OC. Below is a table addressing the first part (Hostler, Tollner, and Norv's DAL stats are omitted again; See here for an explanation of table abbreviations):

OC	TOTAL	TRK	TRKIMPYR1	WEIGHT	WRK	PASS	PRK	RUSH	RRK	VAR	VRK
Martz (Pre-SF)	4.7%	15.3	12	2.2%	16.3	14.7%	11.7	-9.9%	18.3	7.7%	19.7
Martz (SF)	-14.6%	27.0	5	-14.1%	28.0	-18.5%	29.0	-9.7%	27.0	4.6%	6.0
DIFFERENCE	-19.3%	-11.7	-7	-16.3%	-11.7	-33.2%	-17.3	0.2%	-8.7	-3.1%	13.7

Turner, N. (Pre-SF)	-2.2%	16.3	11.5	-6.2%	19.7	-2.6%	17.3	-2.5%	16.7	7.6%	19.3
Turner, N. (SF)	-7.8%	22.0	10	-7.5%	22.0	-13.9%	26.0	-2.1%	13.0	7.3%	20.0
DIFFERENCE	-5.6%	-5.7	-1.5	-1.3%	-2.3	-11.3%	-8.7	0.4%	3.7	-0.3%	-0.7

McCarthy (Pre-SF)	-2.4%	19.4	11	-2.1%	17.0	-0.7%	17.0	-4.3%	17.8	6.4%	13.8
McCarthy (SF)	-39.8%	32.0	-3	-38.3%	32.0	-63.1%	32.0	-19.8%	30.0	12.4%	29.0
DIFFERENCE	-37.4%	-12.6	-14	-36.2%	-15.0	-62.4%	-15.0	-15.5%	-12.2	6.0%	-15.2

Average (Pre-SF)	0.0%	17.0	11.5	-2.0%	17.7	3.8%	15.3	-5.6%	17.6	7.2%	17.6
Average (SF)	-20.7%	27.0	4.0	-20.0%	27.3	-31.8%	29.0	-10.5%	23.3	8.1%	18.3
DIFFERENCE	-20.7%	-10.0	-7.5	-18.0%	9.7	-35.6%	13.7	-5.0%	5.7	0.9%	0.7

This table is pretty clear. An OC's patina of previous performance washes away when they arrive in Santa Clara. Given the massive hit his résumé took during the 2005 season, it must have come as a total shock to Mike McCarthy when the Packers actually showed interest in him for their head coaching position. Check out that 62.4% drop in passing efficiency! Or how about Martz seeing one of his offenses actually rank 29^th in pass DVOA?

Obviously, Martz's precipitous passing decline was the result of monumental personnel differences between the 2008 49ers and the Greatest Show on Turf. But we shouldn't assume that personnel differences explain all of the discrepancy between pre-49ers and with-49ers OC performance. Here's why. McCarthy's QBs in NO were Jeff Blake, Jake Delhomme, and Aaron Brooks. Yes, that Aaron Brooks. Granted, these 3 were all better than Tim Rattay or a rookie Alex Smith, and Joe Horn was better than Brandon Lloyd, but 62.4% better??? I don't know about that. Also, Norv inherited much the same offense that McCarthy understandably abandoned, but his résumé didn't take nearly as big of a hit in 2006.

Nevertheless, I can't ignore the fact that personnel matters, and therefore, that the 49ers' offensive personnel has had a negative impact on its OCs' career DVOA stats. Now, let's examine the second part of the question: What kind of impact have post-Mooch OCs had on the 49ers' offensive performance. Here are the relevant stats, which I've broken into two tables for the sake of readability:

OC	YEAR	TOTAL	TRK	TRKIMP	WEIGHT	WRK	WRKIMP	VAR	VRK	VRKIMP
Martz	2008	-14.6%	27	5	-14.1%	28	4	4.6%	6	19
Hostler	2007	-30.5%	32	-10	-27.4%	32	-10	9.1%	25	-5
Turner, N.	2006	-7.8%	22	10	-7.5%	22	10	7.3%	20	9
McCarthy	2005	-39.8%	32	-3	-38.3%	32	-1	12.4%	29	-13
Tollner	2004	-22.8%	29	-20	-25.2%	31	-23	6.6%	16	14
AVERAGE		-23.1%	28.4	-3.6	-22.5%	29.0	-4.0	8.0%	19.2	4.8

OC	YEAR	PASS	PRK	PRKIMP	RUSH	RRK	RRKIMP
Martz	2008	-18.5%	29	3	-9.7%	27	-2
Hostler	2007	-43.9%	32	-6	-11.1%	25	-12
Turner, N.	2006	-13.9%	26	6	-2.1%	13	17
McCarthy	2005	-63.1%	32	-4	-19.8%	30	2
Tollner	2004	-21.3%	28	-21	-24.6%	32	-24
AVERAGE		-32.1%	29.4	-4.4	-13.5%	25.4	-3.8

OK, a little bit of a tangent first. This table should effectively end any debate about whether or not Mike Martz should have been retained. The guy's 49er offense had a worse rush DVOA ranking than Jim Hostler's!!! Oh, and those Martz-Norv comparisons? Norv produced a better rushing offense and a better passing offense. In fact, the only aspect of 49er offensive DVOA that Martz improved turns out to be week-to-week, or should I say "weak-to-weak," consistency. In other words, Martz's 49er offense was consistent...consistently inefficient. Now, back to the main event...

Looking at all of the columns with "IMP" in the heading, we can see that Norv Turner was the only recent 49er OC to produce any meaningful improvement in the 49ers' offensive DVOA rankings. In light of the 2005 disaster that preceded him, these improvements are all the more impressive (e.g., the +50% change in passing DVOA). Norv's success is relevant in the current context because, as has been described elsewhere, Turner and Raye are both disciples of the 3-digit "Air Coryell" system. Indeed, their careers dovetailed in LA and WAS, and rendezvoused in OAK when Raye was Turner's OC.

BOTTOM LINE

Because Norv's success in 2006 suggests that a run-oriented, 3-digit offense best matches the 49ers' personnel, a return to this system under Raye bodes well for the 49ers' offense in 2009. How well exactly is hard to tell, especially without knowing (a) who the starting QB is, (b) who the 49ers add in free agency, (c) who they draft, and (d) how far along Jason Hill and Josh Morgan are in their path to elite WR status. Nevertheless, based on what I've presented in this article, and barring any major personnel changes and/or injuries, I'd conservatively estimate that the 49ers' offensive DVOAs will look something like -10% overall, -5% running, and -15% passing. That's not great, but it would qualify as the 2^nd best offense the 49ers have had since the revolving door swung open for the first time. How's that for a Raye of hope!

**DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

How good do you think Jimmy Raye's 49er offense is going to be?

Better than Norv's

57 votes

As good as Norv's

79 votes

Worse than Norv's, but better than Martz's

86 votes

As good as Martz's

18 votes

As vomit-inducingly bad as Hostler's and McCarthy's

54 votes

294 votes | Poll has closed

Saints Suck at Reminiscing

Saintsational — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 19:00:06 -0000

Not too long ago we were all treated to hear Jim Haslett man up and admit he made a big mistake during his tenure here in New Orleans.

"We had a chance to go to the playoffs, and I got hard-headed because Aaron Brooks got hurt, " Haslett said to Rams beat reporter Jim Thomas in an interview with the St. Louis Post-Dispatch this week. "I should've put the backup in and didn't. Everybody wanted the backup in, and I didn't. In hindsight, I probably should have, because the backup turned out to be a pretty darn good quarterback, Jake Delhomme."

-Times-Pic

Five kickers later and none on the current roster, Sean Payton has even come clean during his tenure thus far.

Payton has admitted that he never should have let reliable veteran Carney go after the '06 season, when he tried to upgrade to the stronger-legged Mare.

-Times-Pic

We know the Saints have perennial victims of poor decisions, bad luck and just plain stupidity since the dawn of the organization. I don't know if Mike Ditka was ever apologetic about the Ricky Williams/draft pick fiasco but I think we all know what category that falls under as well, though Ditka got his due. That's our thing and nobody does it better than us and by now we're all used to it. But it does raise a lot of questions.

At what point does it end? How long do Saints fans have to endure this? Will we suffer more years of this before wising up and finally making a change? I applaud Payton for at least admitting his mistakes during his tenure and not years later but the fact is the mistake was still made and here we sit without a shred of confidence in our kicking game.

Are we wasting talent too? (MtnExile)

The most important question, however, is this: What the hell else are we screwing up right now as we speak that is keeping this team from achieving its potential? I would hate to see Pierre Thomas rush and catch for 2,500 yards next season...for the Bucs.

Of course, hindsight it 20/20 and it's easy to spot the obvious while looking in the rear view mirror. Making necessary and positive changes while it's not too late is a challenge that takes not only intelligence but honesty with yourself and the courage to do so. That is what makes a good coach. Being able to make those changes before they even happen is what makes a great coach. Does Payton have either of those abilities? We've seen new Niners head coach Mike Singletary's reactionary comments this past weekend and I think many of us are pretty impressed. Perhaps it's more like jealousy.