SB Nation - Jerry Porter

First Half Grades and Awards

Jonathan Loesche — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:49:09 -0000

about 1 month ago: Jacksonville Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew runs for a third-quarter touchdown during an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Nov. 8, 2009, in Jacksonville, Fla. Jacksonville won 24-21.(AP Photo/Phil Coale)

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The Jaguars have completed the first half of their schedule and the results are a resounding...........who knows. This team has had it's share of ups and downs, though it has been entertaining the entire time. This team is in rebuilding, but that doesn't mean it has it's strengths and weaklinks.

Passing Offense: B-

The key here has been the emergence of the wide receiving corp. The Jaguars no longer have a CFL level wide receiving corp and it shows. Mike Sims-Walker has been showing why the Jaguars have been so patient with his injuries, while Torry Holt has been the best free agent pick up since Mike Peterson.David Garrard has been up and down, though that has as much to do with the play of the offensive line as himself.

First round pick Eugene Monroe is seemingly finally entrenched at the left tackle spot. As long as the coaching staff doesn't have anymore divine revelations to start Tra Thomas, I don't see Monroe leaving that spot for the next ten years. Fourth round pick Mike Thomas has certainly been the surprise of the draft class for me. He has been a nice spark plug for the offense.

Rushing Offense:A-

Maurice Jones-Drew is a feature back, enough said. MJD is on pace for a 1,500 yard 22 touchdown season that would eclipse anything Fred Taylor did statistically, which is insane. However, as Jeff Lageman mentioned, Fred was always at his best during the back half of the schedule. Will we say the same about Jones-Drew?

Rashad Jennings has been getting more action as the season has gone on, and hopefully he'll get to be a regular spell back by the end of the year. I know MJD is a monster, but why don't we give the ball to Greg Jones more in short yard situations, if for no other reason then that's one less hit MJD needs to take.

Run blocking has always been the offensive line's strength and it continues to be. 2nd round pick Eben Britton has been excellent blocking the run this season, though he's still a work in progress with pass protection. Also, the interior of the offensive line is starting to show it's age. Hopefully they'll be able to hang on for another year or two because there are only project players to be found if you want interior O-lineman in this draft.

Passing Defense:D

Well, at least the unit isn't on pace to set the record for fewest sacks in the NFL. However, this is still the weak link on the team, as evidenced by the 54 yard prayer that was given up for a touchdown that sparked the Chiefs psuedo-rally. The pass rush is still non-existent for the most part. Unless the Chiefs game was a preview of things to come, the Jaguars will still be looking for that pass rusher. Also, Reggie Nelson is still a liability. While he managed to figure out he was playing TACKLE football, I would still take a "Hole in Zone" over trusting him to make the right read.

On the other hand, Derek Cox has been progressing nicely and looks to be a cornerstone of the team for the next decade. I'm not going to blast Sean Considine and Brian Russell too much as those guys really should be special teams guys.

Rushing Defense: C+

The Jaguars rush defense has been good statistically primarily because team's realized that throwing the ball was far more effective. However, the last two weeks have been a Jekyll and Hyde show for the team. Chris Johnson had a career day in Nashville, while they buckled down against the Chiefs to only allow 60 yards rushing.

Terrance Knighton has been playing the best of the rookies and has been a true bright spot for the season. John Henderson has revived his career and is playing his best ball since 2005. Also, if this team is finally going back to the 4-3, then we'll see our linebackers playing to their strengths again.

(I'm going to save comment on the coaching for another article.)

First Half MVP: Maurice Jones-Drew

Did you think I would pick anyone else?

First Half LVP (Least Valuable Player): Reggie Nelson

Nelson is proudly continuing in the tradition of other Shack Harris first round picks, by not progressing or living up to their potential. It seems everytime the defense gives a big play over the top you can see that Reggie is out of position somewhere.

Best Moment: Week 4 vs Tennessee

Easily the best performance from all sides of the ball since 2007.

Worst Moment: Week 8 at Tennessee

I have to agree with Vic on this one. The playoffs were on the line and despite being thoroughly outplayed, it seemed MJD had delivered a knockout blow with his second long touchdown to tie the game at 13-13. Then, the extra point was blocked and the team collapsed.

Best Rookie: Terrance "Pot Roast" Knighton

Not only has he played the best of the rookies, his arrivial has resparked John Henderson.

Most Pleasant Surprise: The Jaguars no longer having a CFL level wide receiving unit

The Jaguars top three wide receivers in 2008, Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, and Jerry Porter are out of football now. Would anyone want to bet Mike Sims-Walker, Torry Holt, and Mike Thomas would be free agents for long if the Jaguars cut them tomorrow?

One thing I want to see over the next eight games: Close losses

You're probably wondering what I mean by that, but this team is going to lose a few more games this year, that is certain. However, the Jaguars have lost by an average of 18 points this season. I'm not asking this team to go in and beat New England at home in December. I would ask you make it worth my while to tune in.

-Jonathan Loesche

Poll

The team MVP is

Maurice Jones-Drew

373 votes

David Garrard

10 votes

Mike Sims-Walker

56 votes

Torry Holt

3 votes

Terrance Knighton

14 votes

Other

4 votes

460 votes | Poll has closed

Horse Tracks 10/9/09 - Buckhalter probably out Sunday; Fred Taylor definitely out for Pats

Douglas A. Lee — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 12:08:04 -0000

HAPPY BIRTHDAY, ZAPPA!!!!!!!

NFL Films - Week 5: Patriots vs. Broncos Preview - Video

DB - Preparing for the Elements - Zach Eisendrath
I like this - an awful lot. McD had the team practice in less-than-ideal weather yesterday (and says they'll continue to do so) in preparation for games with nasty conditions (as Sunday could prove to be). This, rather than practicing within the cozy confines of the bubble. I think back to snow games in recent years and what stands out are a couple of horrific losses on Monday Nights - one to the Colts and that idiot kicker Vanderjagt, another to Jokeland and Jerry Porter.

NFLN - Brandon Marshall interview - Video
BMarsh finally opens up, to Michael Irvin in an interview which will air Sunday morning at 9am ET on NFL Network. He admits to having erred in judgment this summer, letting his emotions getting the best of him and failing to follow his agent's advice.

N - Brandon Marshall: "It's exciting to be a Bronco" - Bob Glauber
"The second game of the season at halftime everyone left (the locker room), getting ready to go back out there and I stayed and I sat in my locker, put my head down with a towel over my head. I thought I was the only one in there and I broke down (in tears). I heard a voice and it was Brian Dawkins. He tapped me four times on my back…he said ‘Come on baby.’ And once I heard that, it’s like my teammates are with me…I’m going to get through this. And I think everything is on track, we’re on track. It’s exciting to be a Bronco." – Marshall on being benched vs. Oakland and how the experience motivated him

USAT - Taught by Belichick, McDaniels giving confidence into Broncos - Jarrett Bell
"He always told me," McDaniels said, "'If you feel that's the best way to do something, then you're probably right. Do it that way. Trust yourself and trust your instincts.' "... "One thing it means," he says, "is that there's a lot of people outside this building that really didn't know what was going on the whole time, anyway. This was never about Brandon and I disliking one another. I love coaching the kid. He practices hard. He's got great energy. He's a young kid, getting better."

Y! - Discarded Dawkins becomes Broncos' treasure - Mike Silver
"Having him here is amazing. I’ve never seen anybody like him. You can see his emotion, how passionate he is about the game. It’s wild. He’s so hyped. He’s in his moment, and you love being around him. Most of all, he can play. Guys at 23 aren’t doing what he’s doing." - Champ on BDawk

NFLTA - Dumervil's defense - Video
I'm sure it burns him, but Jamie Dukes says he thinks the Broncos have a "puncher's chance" Sunday versus the Pats. At least Eisen doesn't let him off scot-free...

NFLN - WK 5 Playbook: Patriots vs. Broncos - Video
Theismann loves the Broncos D, while Sterling loves the Pats' no-name guys.

NFL FanHouse - Picking the Brain of Bill Belichick - Thomas George
"There are a lot of impressive things about him. Very smart. The type of person you can give 10 different things to do and ask him about one of them and he will be right on top of it...The type of person who can juggle a lot of balls. And know where they all are." - Belichick talking about Josh McDaniels in a fascinating interview. Thanks to Elizabeth for the link!

SI - Denver Broncos defense in midst of staggering turnaround - Kerry J. Byrne
"the power of the Denver defense is even more impressive when viewed through the pigskin periscope of the Quality Stats that we use to rate teams at ColdHardFootballFacts.com. Quality Stats are those indicators that have a direct correlation to team-wide success."

DPP - Briefs: Dumervil plans on treating Brady like every other QB - Klis & Jones
BDawk missed practice again with a sore knee and shoulder, instead walking through drills. Ben Hamilton and Alphonso Smith were again limited participants.

DB - Legacy Game Sparks Memorable Weekend - Jim Saccomano
Sacco shares plenty of details about the AFL celebration; it goes a lot farther than just old uniforms - sounds like it'll be a great experience.

DB - Week 5 - Thu: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DB - Week 5 - Wed: Transcripts - McDaniels, Orton, Dawkins

NFL - Thursday Injury Reports

LTC - McDaniels gears up for Patriots - Brian Howell

CSG - Coach says Broncos will practice outdoors in any conditions - Frank Schwab

DPP - Q&A: Sneak not seeing much action yet - Jeff Legwold
I'm with this reader and would like to see the Broncos use the QB sneak on short-yardage situations.

DPP - Brady's year of transition - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Analysis: Brady won't get rattled — defense must be solid - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Paige: 5-0 would be a Super sign for Broncos
I'm not sure why previous 5-0 teams have anything at all to do with the Broncos' chances should they win on Sunday, but Woody seems to think he knows...

AP - Bailey relishes increase in passes coming his way - Pat Graham

DB - Tackling Hunger With a Helping Hand - Chris Gentilviso
The wives of several Broncos players worked a shift at a Denver Rescue Mission site Wednesday, serving food to the hungry.

FOX - The truth is sexy ... and so are NFL Truths - Jason Whitlock
"It's comical watching everyone fall over themselves praising Josh McDaniels for Denver's 4-0 start when the Broncos' undefeated start is the No. 1 reason McDaniels should be ripped."

ESPN - John Clayton breaks down the biggest NFL games of Week 5 - John Clayton
"A win or a loss in the showdown won't define McDaniels' start in Denver. The Patriots' former offensive coordinator has exceeded expectations by winning his first four games. His defense, in particular, has exceeded expectations."

CST - Jay Cutler for Kyle Orton: Looks like a QB draw - Neil Hayes

ESPN - Melissa Isaacson on the impact of the Kyle Orton Trade

Patriots News

NFP - Is Taylor's injury a concern in New England? - Matt Bowen

BG - Taylor had surgery today, could be done for season - Christopher Gasper
Don't get too excited; they still have Maroney, Faulk, Morris and Green-Ellis...

BH - Ankle surgery grounds Fred Taylor indefinitely - Ian Rapoport

BH - Mike Wright pays for wrong - Ian Rapoport

BH - Patriots DBs catching on - Ian Rapoport

AFC West News

NFP - Diner morning news: family feud in San Diego - Mike Lombardi

SDUT - Handing out roses - Mike Fleiss
Evaluating the Dolts' roster at the bye.

SDUT - Bye comes at good time for Bolts - Kevin Acee

KCS - LJ says it’s time for offense to move forward - Adam Teicher

KCS - Haley might have help designing Chiefs’ offense - Kent Babb

Y! - Raiders' Russell set up for failure - Charles Robinson

SFG - Raiders Silver and Black Blog : Unspecial teams, Bush, etc. - David White

SFG - Raiders Silver and Black Blog : Russell: Feels fine, no fines - David White

OT - Raiders notebook: Russell dismisses Esiason's criticism - Steve Corkran

OT - Raiders let one get away in Tollefson - Steve Corkran

NFL News

NFL - Thursday injury reports: Texans’ Williams out again

NFL - Carr ready to play for Giants if injured QB Manning can't go

NFL - Mum's the word: Stafford, Lions not saying much about QB's injury

NFL - Burleson likes Hasselbeck's chances of starting for Seahawks

NFL - Bucs S Jackson returns from suspension, could play vs. Eagles

NFL Opinion

NFL - Pick your poison: Defenses trying to adjust to QB protection plans - Vic Carucci

NFP - Rush Limbaugh and the Rams - Robert Boland

SI - What we know 1 month into season - Don Banks

CBS - First-quarter report: Parity a rarity as middle class erodes - Pete Prisco

SN - Rebuilt and rollin': New coaches turn three teams' fortunes - Albert Breer

NFP - Tavern talk: ‘Skins have talent problems - Mike Lombardi

SI - NFL overprotects offensive players - LaMarr Woodley

CBS - Mangini finally gives Browns, fans reason to believe - Gregg Doyel

PFW - Reconsidering Kolb's future with Eagles - Eric Edholm

PFW - Quarterbacks now back in vogue - Tom Danyluk

NFL - Former top picks Russell, Manning square off at Giants Stadium - Gil Brandt

SN - Week 5 picks: Brady a challenge for Broncos' D - Vinnie Iyer

SN - NFL Football Picks
Once again, only 2 Sporting News writers see a Denver win

SI - The Peter King Challenge

NFP - The Daily Jolt's week 5 picks - Ray Gustini

NFL - Safety issue: USC's Mays has skills to pull of an NFL first - Bucky Brooks

PFW - USF safety Allen impresses - College Notes - Nolan Nawrocki

Tennessee Titans Morning Links: Matt Jones > Casey Jones Edition

August West — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 13:48:06 -0000

by SUSAN WALSH - AP

Still pimpin', just in better suits these days.

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So the Titans are working out Matt Jones. You know what, as much as I want to scream nooooooo!, I have to say that if they're looking to bolster the depth at that spot, then you can do a lot worse than a completely healthy 26 year old 6'6" physical freak who managed to catch 62 passes in a pretty bad offense last year. His production has gone up every single year he's been in the league. In the grand scheme of things his legal problems are pretty easy to stomach by NFL standards: I'll take a possible cokehead over a wife-beater/violent criminal every day and a few times on Sunday. Besides, playing WR has got to be way easier than driving that train...

Put it this way, I'd certainly take Jones over Jerry effin' Porter or Samie Parker. Jerry Porter has been terrible for years, and was a major locker room cancer in Oakland. On a related note: you know who should be freaking out? Lavelle Hawkins. If they had any faith in him this wouldn't be happening.

Paul K thinks we could definitely sign Jones, but that we're really looking for a WR who can also help out in the return game. That means a smaller, shiftier style WR, and doesn't bode well for Porter or Jones.

Follow us through the jump to find out the one thing Fisher is lacking...

Teresa M. Walker notes that there's only one thing lacking in Jeff Fisher's tremendous resume: a Super Bowl win. To wit:

He already ranks 22nd in coaching wins and is second only to Bill Belichick (153) among active coaches with his 133 victories. Only nine other coaches have spent more time with one team than Fisher with 240 games, and that list includes such great coaches as George Halas, Tom Landry, Don Shula, Chuck Noll, Curly Lambeau and Joe Gibbs.

Most of the decisions for who will be cut on 4:00 pm on Saturday have almost certainly been made, but there's always the chance that a huge effort tonight could save a man's job.

Just when you thought it couldn't get any better, it does.

In advance of Saturday's deadline for teams to get to the 53 man roster, Ross Tucker goes over the common ways players react when they fear they may be on the wrong side of that bubble.

I know this is groundbreaking news across the interwebs, but Peter King sucks at his job.

And for reasoning why, just read the Scouting report Don Banks wrote that is linked by PK. He knows better than that sack of crap. Many thanks to commenter SoCalTitan and super-hater Gramsey for pointing these links out!

If there's anything you would like to share with the MCM community, please take advantage of the comments, fanshots and fanposts to do so! Or, you can always email me at mcmaugustwest@gmail.com.

Filling WR Marcus Smith's Spot

Mr MaLoR — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 04:02:33 -0000

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Thursday night, second year WR Marcus Smith came off the field limping after making a very impressive tackle on a special teams play. At the time, most of us were probably unsure of how serious the injury was, just thinking that it was a sprain or that the player landed on it the wrong way. However, after the game Coach Harbaugh stated that it is a pretty serious injury and further reports have given clues that Smith could be missing the whole season if his ACL is as messed up as we think.

Now, where does this injury leave us? Baltimore was very excited to see a guy like Smith step up and improve what many around the league think is one of the weakest WR groups in the NFL. He was having a great start to the pre-season and looked to be a guy we could count on as our 4th or even 3rd WR at times. Here are a few possibilities.

Stick With Our Current Group: With Smith's injury, this leaves Kelly Washington and Demtrius Williams fighting for the 3rd and 4th spots. This injury moves guys like Justin Harper up the depth chart just slightly and may even give guys like Jason Foster or Eron Riley a chance.

Acquire Yet Another Free Agent: There is still some talent out there in the Free Agent pool. We have debated for a while now of the guys out there that could possibly come in here and help us out. Here are a few of the Free Agent WR that seem to stand out.

What is the best decision for the Ravens at the moment?

Predicting the Arizona Cardinals Record: Part 1

Andrew602 — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 11:00:17 -0000

With the start of the 2009 preseason only less then a week away, now's a good time to break down the regular season and predict a record for 2009. Last year, many of us figured a realistic record would be 9-7 or 10-6, and their actual record fell along those lines. This year, the schedule becomes more difficult, coaching changes are made, and different personnel and schemes are brought in that can make predicting a valid schedule very frustrating. This season is sure to feature its ups and downs, upsets and surprising, and many more unknown scenarios. Let's break down the schedule and attempt to bolster a reasonable prediction for the Cardinals 2009 record. We'll do 4 weeks at a time until we have the complete 16 game record complete.

Week 1 - San Francisco 49ers

Key Additions: WR Brandon Jones, CB Dre Bly, WR Michael Crabtree

Key Losses: LB Tully Banta-Cain, WR Bryant Johnson, CB Donald Strickland, QB J.T. O'Sullivan

Analysis: When Mike Singletary took over the 49ers last year, it took a couple of games, but Singletary was able to spark a fire under the 49ers and make them one of the most competitive teams towards the end of last year. That fire is sure to continue on this season, and should create a great season opener as the Cardinals and 49ers have opened the season together the last 3 years together.

What to watch for: The most obvious things to watch for would be how Beanie Wells handles his first regular season game, as he should get a good amount of carries against a physical defense in the 49ers. We should also watch out to see if Larry Fitzgerald's momentum from the playoffs continues into this season.

Key Match Up: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie vs. Michael Crabtree

Prediction: Win - Cardinals coming off a Super Bowl run, at home, should be too much for the 49ers.

Week 2 - At Jacksonville Jaguars

Key Additions: WR Torry Holt, S Marlon McCree, OT Tra Thomas, OT Eugene Monroe

Key Losses: LB Mike Peterson, RB Fred Taylor, DE Paul Spicer, CB Drayton Florence, WR Matt Jones, WR Jerry Porter

Analysis: The Jaguars had high hopes last year after coming very close to the Super Bowl in 2007. They were also one of the very dominant rushing teams that year. Things changed last year when injury, and inconsistency at the quarterback position hit them. They lost Fred Taylor but Maurice Jones-Drew looks to lead the team in the running game. The Jaguars are still a very dangerous team and have the right tools to make week 2 a very competitive one for the Cardinals.

What to watch for: This will be the first game on the road in 2009 and as we all know, the Cardinals have never played well on the road in the past. Although they surprised us against Carolina in the playoffs, winning on the road week 2 should be a challenge. If they can overcome the road games early, it should be a good sign for the 2009 season.

Key match up: Maurice Jones-Drew vs Karlos Dansby

Prediction: Win - Too many holes on the Jaguars and virtually no chemistry will give the Cardinals the edge.

Week 3 - Indianapolis Colts

Key Additions: DT Ed Johnson, RB Donald Brown

Key Losses: WR Marvin Harrison, RB Dominic Rhodes, Tony Dungy

Analysis: The Colts took 5 games last year to get back to playoff football. Things won't be the same this year as Peyton Manning is healthy heading into the season. The loss of Harrison shouldn't have too much of an effect on the offense as the Colts have virtually been without him the last couple years. The main factor that could give the Colts problems is the loss of long time head coach, Tony Dungy. There will be an adjustment but expect their top offense and quick defense to show up when they come to University of Phoenix Stadium.

What to watch for: Peyton Manning. The entire Cardinals defense will need to be watching Manning if they have a chance at winning the game. Manning can pick any defense apart with his superb quarterback skills. If the Cardinals can stay focused and not commit any mistakes, look for the upset.

Key match up: Dwight Freeney vs Mike Gandy

Prediction: Loss - Unfortunately, banking on not committing mistakes is not smart, and the fantastic offense of the Colts will be too much for the Cardinals.

Week 5 - Houston Texans

Key Additions: DE Antonio Smith, DT Shaun Cody, LB Cato June, LB Brian Cushing

Key Losses: QB Sage Rosenfels, S Will Demps, CB DeMarcus Faggins, RB Ahman Green

Analysis: After another average season, the Texans hopes are high heading into 2009. They have continued to fit the right pieces into place for the last few years, and seem to finally have most of the puzzle complete. They've built a solid line and built everything around it. They found a steal in last years draft in Slaton, have one of the best wide receivers in the game in Andre Johnson, and if Shaub is consistent, they're offense is set. If they're defense can adapt and improve off of last year, this team will be a contender.

What to watch for: This is surely going to be a hyped match up as the top two wide receivers in the NFL meet up. Expect many breakdowns and predictions for who will have a better performance, along with who the best receiver is during the post game news.

Key match up: No brainer...Larry Fitzgerald vs Andre Johnson

Prediction: Win - The Texans are still too inexperienced and will have trouble facing the Cardinals on their home field.

------------------------------------------------

Cardinals record through Week 5 - 3-1

It's not a bad start to the season and if the Cardinals are able to pull it off, this should surely jump start them to a lead in the NFC West. The only problem with that is keeping their number one spot as the other three teams will be gunning for them. We'll break down weeks 6-9 next week but what would you think of their record so far? Could you see it going any other way?

Jacksonville Jaguars 2009 Training Camp: The new beginning begins

River City Rage — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 15:35:27 -0000

More photos » by Jason DeCrow - AP

Will Monroe be in camp?

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It's finally here. The 2009 Jacksonville Jaguars will report to training camp on Sunday, bringing to an end what was quite possibly the most painful offseason in Jaguars history. We've seen Fred Taylor leave the team and go to the New England Patriots, something that will look dreadful when the Jaguars face the Patriots on December 27th. We saw the release of nearly the entire crop of 2008 free agents and most of the Jaguars wide receivers leave. Jerry Porter, Matt Jones, and Reggie Williams all still unemployed, though I'd argue that Matt Jones still has a chance to do well, somewhere.

We saw James Harris leave the team and the rise of Gene Smith, he which we must trust to make all the right decisions, as he has final say in nearly everything. It's unclear as to whether Jack Del Rio will still get to pick his sideline attire, or if that too comes from an edict from above. Of course, I say this will all due respect, as I've been OK with just about every move that Smith has made since taking the conn.

The good news is that the majority of our draft picks are signed (more on that to come), there were no significant injuries during the OTA season, and the offseason passed with no arrests, off the field incidents, or distractions. While I hate talking about it, when the biggest offseason storyline is a struggle to sell tickets, we're doing all right.

Three Burning Questions:

1. Will Eugene Monroe, our first round pick, be in camp on time with a reasonable contract? Jason Smith signed a $62 million contract with $33 million in guaranteed money. Basically equivalent to the 5 year, 57 million dollar contract with 30 million guaranteed. That sets the bar for offensive linemen. The Raiders signed Wide Receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, selected 7th overall, to a $23.5 million guaranteed and $38.25 million in base salary with a maximum value of $54 million. This sets the cap for Monroe in the slotting order. Derrick Harvey, selected 8th overall last season, signed for t $17.175 million in guaranteed money, $23.8 million before incentives and $33.4 million in total potential money.

So the Jaguars will look to sign Monroe for closer to 19-20 million in guaranteed money, Monroe and his agent will push for 21-22 million, and they'll find a common ground in the middle. Will that be accomplished by Sunday? Highly doubtful. I don't expect a long holdout, but it's likely that he'll miss the first few days. This is why we have Tra Thomas.

2. Will the Wide Receivers continue to develop? Who is Chad Owens and who is the next Jimmy Smith or Keenan McCardell? Who will get alligator arms when Reggie Nelson is closing and who goes over the middle and takes the hit? We can speculate all day long about the receivers and what they could do, but once the pads are in play and the lights are on, all bets are off. I've got faith that this group is going to turn into something special, especially with Mike Walker being healthy and ready for his 3rd season, but we'll have to see.

3. Do we escape the injuries. After last season, every snap, every play, every throw and every awkward fall and twist will terrify me. While Camp Del Rio will be more intense than we're used to, I'd like to see this team go into week one with a healthy roster that can surprise some folks, not one that is hobbled and wounded.

What's on your mind on the Friday before camp?

Jack Del Rio On Trial

Jonathan Loesche — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 00:52:25 -0000

Ladies and Gentlemen, we are here to decide the future of the Jack Del Rio, and by association, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Coach Del Rio was hired following the 2002 season to replace Tom Coughlin as head coach. Tasked with helping drag the Jaguars out of salary cap hell and return to a championship contender, he has lead the Jaguars to the playoffs twice and helped mold one of the most physically dominant teams in the NFL. However, he has also managed to gain his share of detractors. They accuse him of leaving his teams ill-prepared and will never lead the Jaguars to the promised land.

The charge brought against him is that he is not the man for the job, and the Jaguars should terminate him as their head coach. You will listen to both sides present their case and decide at the end whether Del Rio should continue as the Jaguar's head coach.

The prosecution

Members of the jury, what we have here is a textbook case of a coach who has simply run his course. Jack Del Rio has been the head coach of the Jaguars for six years. In that time, he has been given ample opportunity to turn the Jaguars around and make them a playoff fixture. Instead, with the exception of 2007, the Jaguars have been the most common team associated with the phrase "Yeah, but." After I am finished, I'm sure you'll agree that with Coach Del Rio, the Jaguars will never be more than "Yeah, but."

Exhibit A

December 26th, 2004

Week 16: 21-0 loss vs the Houston Texans

There are numerous examples I could use from the 2004 season. I could use the 20-6 loss @Houston a week after winning in Indianapolis and having a chance to take a commanding lead in the division. I could use the 3 game losing streak after starting 6-3 that made this game so critical to the Jaguars playoff chances in the first place. However, I will just stick with the game that many Jaguars fans remember to this day.

We all know the story; the Jaguars were coming home after beating the Packers in Green Bay. With 2 "cupcake" games remaining against Houston and Oakland, the Jaguars seem destined for a return trip to the playoffs. Instead, the team laid a massive egg in front of the small home crowd and were shut out of the playoffs.

Exhibit B

December 17-31st, 2006

Week 15: 24-17 loss @ Tennessee

Week 16: 24-21 loss vs New England

Week 17: 35-30 loss @ Kansas City

Over a three week period, the Jaguars went from one of their highest highs (a 44-17 slaughter of Indy) to a Week 17 loss that made fans seriously consider if Quinn Gray was starting material. Any time Pacman Jones is mentioned on ESPN, his interception for a touchdown in Week 15 is still shown. The Jaguars gave a noble fight against New England, however, as par for the course, the Jaguars faltered against the top shelf. The loss to the Chiefs simply showed a team that had given up, and seemingly didn't care.

Exhibit C

The 2008 season

This has been covered so often, I doubt anyone here needs a refresher.

Exhibit D

I believe we could all agree the four teams that are at the top of the AFC's hierarchy are Pittsburgh, New England, Indianapolis, and San Diego. What is Jack Del Rio's record against those four teams as head coach?

2003: 2-2

2004:1-3

2005: 1-3

2006: 2-2

2007: 3-3

2008: 1-2

Career Record: 10-15

Del Rio has a Career winning percentage of .400 against the Cream of the AFC Crop. If I take away the Steelers and only factor the Chargers, Colts, and Patriots it plummets to

2003: 2-2

2004:1-2

2005:0-3

2006:1-2

2007:1-3

2008:1-1

Career:6-13

Conclusion

I could go further about all of the rumors about Del Rio's personality rubbing players and coaches the wrong way. Or his history that makes me questions his maturity, but I will simply deal with the facts.

Jack Del Rio took over a team that was, in many respects, an expansion team. He deserves credit where credit is due. However, that is no excuse for how this team has performed consistently. The Jaguars organization and fan base has had six seasons to evaluate what kind of coach he is.

What have we seen? We have seen a team that constantly folds under pressure, packs their bags when things get down, and seemingly can't compete with the best this conference has to offer.

Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury, I say to you that Jack Del Rio is not the man for the job. He has shown that while he may get the Jaguars within sight of the mountain top, we will simply falter back down. The Jaguars will simply not be a legit contender as long as he walks the sidelines.

The Defense

Jury members, you have heard how Coach Del Rio is simply not the man for the job. I admit, the Jaguars have stumbled along the way, but that is to be expected with a young coach. A year ago, we were praising him for ushering in the Jaguars 2nd Golden Age and once again allowing fans to utter the words "Super Bowl" with legitimacy. He was handed a team that may have had less talent than the 1995 expansion team and turned it into a playoff team in three seasons.

To counter my opponents positions, I saw a young team take it's lumps against the Texans. A valiant defensive performance was foiled by an early indicator of Bryon Leftwich's inability to win critical games. In 2006, Garrard had a meltdown of epic proportions against Tennessee and continued through the final two games of the regular season. In 2008, injuries, multiple free agent and first round busts, and hubris throughout the organization created a perfect storm. While Del Rio's record may not be the best against the elite, have the Jaguars had the kind of talent those teams had?

Exhibit A

The 2nd Half of the 2003 season

Heading into Week 10 of the 2003 season, Jacksonville was 1-7 and looked to have the #1 pick in the draft. Jack Del Rio's team trailed at halftime to the heavily favored Colts. That young team could have folded then and there, instead, they mounted a comeback and played above their ability. They finished 4-4 in their final eight games.

Would a coach who let's his team fail pull that off? Coach Del Rio motivated his team to keep fighting when all that was on the line was pride. It was perhaps the Jaguars' darkest hour, and he came through.

Exhibit B

2007 Wild Card Round @Pittsburgh
The Jaguars had surrendered a lead late in the 4th quarter in one of the most hostile stadiums in the league. Instead of folding, Jacksonville went on a career defining drive for all involved. David Garrard made the most miraculous play since Brunell was running through Broncos defenders in the 96 divisional round, and the Jaguars came out victorious.

Exhibit C

Shack Harris' constant personnel failures

Byron Leftwich, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones, Hugh Douglas, Jerry Porter, Drayton Florence, all names that were brought in to be bedrocks for the organization. Instead, they represented wasted roster spots and cap space. The fact that the Jaguars had to jettison their franchise quarterback, yet still were a playoff contender is a testament to Del Rio's coaching ability. How many other franchises fielded contending teams during bitter quarterback controversies, or managed to recover from a failure of a franchise quarterback?

Conclusion

Is Jack Del Rio the greatest coach in the NFL? Probably not. However, is he a good coach who can take the Jaguars to the top? Absolutely. Coach Del Rio has done the best he can with what he has been given. It is foolhardy to think any coach could dramatically improve how this team has done over the years.

It is up to you, the members of the jury, to decide whether Coach Del Rio is guilty or not. Please vote and leave a comment as to how you feel

-Jonathan Loesche

Poll

On the charge that Jack Del Rio is not the man for the job as the Jaguars head coach

Guilty

139 votes

Not Guilty

400 votes

539 votes | Poll has closed

Top Remaining Free Agents

Dane Noble — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 18:00:17 -0000

Chicago Bears GM Jerry Angelo and Head Coach Lovie Smith have consistantly stated that they are always evaluating free agent talent, but the Bears have never been a team to dish out top-tier money for big name free agents. When training camp starts in 30 days, we will get a better feel for where we stand with some of our "question mark" players, and possibly start making moves for free agents, if we are going to.

The following are the top remaining free agents, according to Fox Sports. The article has them listed as a slideshow, so for your convenience, I have listed them out.

10- Jerry Porter, WR

9- Marvin Harrison, WR

8- Marcus Washington, LB

7- Derrick Brooks, LB

6- Jon Runyan, OT

5- Brett Favre, QB

4- Mark Tauscher, OT

3- Dunta Robinson, CB

2- Oshiomogho Atogwe, S

1- Terrell Suggs, LB

That's not a bad group of guys, and something tells me that none of them will come cheap. Looking at that list, I don't see the Bears being too interested, but this has been an uncharacteristic offseason thus far.

Do any of you think that the Bears have the potential to go after any of these players?

Dr.FSBA: Or Why Northcutt's release/trade means more between the lines

Jonathan Loesche — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 01:08:51 -0000

As Dennis Northcutt's days as a Jaguar are number, I feel the need to sit back here and look at where this team is heading and where it has been. I forget which poster said it, but they said it best, "I couldn't wait for the day the receiving corps was good enough to cut Dennis Northcutt." Last year at this time, the core receivers were Jerry Porter, Northcutt, Reggie Williams, Troy Williamson, and Matt Jones. Let's go through each one, shall we?

Jerry Porter: His best year's came as a number three wide receiver behind Jerry Rice and Tim Brown. A known trouble maker who may single handily personify all that was wrong with Shack Harris' free agent signings after year one.

Reggie Williams: I'm debating whether Reggie deserves to overtake R Jay Soward as the worst pick in Jaguars history. Williams was picked twenty picks higher, and yet he only had marginally better results on the field. Excluding his 10 touchdown receptions in 2007, did he do anything of note that should've kept him on a NFL roster for five years?

Troy Williamson: Same thing as Reggie, except he doesn't have a 10 touchdown year to his credit. I won't even get started on his comment about duking it out with Minnesota head coach Brad Childress.

Matt Jones: Well, he was Matt Jones.

I look back at the articles on BCC at the time and I wonder how my glasses now don't have a permanent teal and black tint to them. We were honestly trying to convince ourselves this team could make a Super Bowl run with that receiving corps. A receiving corps with words like "Lazy, underperforming, uninterested, bust" scattered across their resumes. Yeah, they would help us host the Lombardi Trophy.

Now, every one of those players are gone except for Northcutt and Williamson. Unless Scott Pioli is still dealing with the crazy, I doubt any team will trade for Northcutt and he'll be sent packing.

This Jaguars team now has an actual veteran who has acheived something in Torry Holt, and young wide receivers who were value picks in Mike Thomas and Jarrett Dillard. The WR corps may not light the world on fire, but it won't be better suited for the old NFL Europe either.

Finally, the day has come that the wide receiver corps was good enough to let Dennis Northcutt go.

-John

Anthony Gonzalez and Wide Reciever Stats, Part 2

shake n bake — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:56:14 -0000

I explained how Catch% and YPR are very important tools for evaluating WRs and showed Anthony Gonzalez's success in both in part 1. Now I'll expand on the relationship between the two, and what it can tell us about WR performance.

YPR isn't a perfect measure of how deep a WR is catching the ball. A 15 yard pass could be a pass caught 3 yards deep and run for 12 more yards, or it could be a pass caught 15 yards deep with no YAC, or anything between. Since not all WRs are equally good at running after the catch, and certain routes allow for different amounts of YAC, YPR isn't the best measure of how deep a WR is catching the ball.

Luckily some places WR YAC is kept, allowing a calculation of the average depth a WR caught the ball. This should be the best measure of WR usage available without going through play by play.

There were 168 player-seasons with 50+ targets the last two years. Among these 168 their AirYPR and Catch% had a r squared value (the percent of the variance in Catch% accounted for by AirYPR) of .16 , meaning that 16% of the variation in catch% can be accounted for by YPR. That is a small correlation, but it is significant, especially when considering that it doesn't account for WR skill, defense ability or QB skill. The average depth a WR catches the ball at, accounts for 16% of the variation in the percent of the time he catches the ball. To relate this level of relatedness, this is a similar correlation to team wins vs Offensive Yards Per Carry and team wins vs team penalties (or more accurately, since the correlation for penalties is negative, team losses and penalties).

Just like committing penalties is a significant factor is losing games and running for a good YPC is related to winning, a WRs AirYPR is related to his Catch%.

So there's a solid relation between the two. Now the useful part. Mgrex03 lent me a hand to use a logarithmic regression instead of the a straight linear one I used before. Average AirAPR was 9.18 and average catch% was 58.8%. Combining these two with the logarithmic regression gives a formula for the catch% of an average receiver for a given AirYPR. We can compare this to the WRs actual catch% for a measure of how well a WR catches the football.

It's not an overall metric of WRs because YAC is excluded. A WR's job breaks down into Getting Open, Catching the Football and Running after the Catch. This covers none of the run after, pretty much all of the catching and some elements of getting open (more room to catch raising catch%). As a alternative to the rate stat, there's Receptions over Average, the WR's receptions minus (the expected catch% for his AirYPR muliplied by his targets). Giving how many more or less catches the player had compared to what would be expected for an average WR with the player's number of targets.

And now the results

Full spreadsheet here (download)

Top 10 Catch% over average

Player	Targets	C% over Average
Ike Hilliard 08	58	+17.8%
Anthony Gonzalez 07	51	+16.2%
Jabar Gaffney 07	50	+13.1%
Gonzalez 08	57	+12.4%
Andre Johnson 07	86	+12.3%
Steve Breaston 08	113	+10.6%
Josh Reed 08	79	+10.3%
Bobby Engram 07	134	+10.3%
Wes Welker 07	145	+10.3%
Reggie Wayne 07	156	+10.3%

Bottom 10 Catch% over Average

Player	Targets	C% over Average
Marty Booker 07	105	-11.7%
Jerry Porter 07	102	-12.1%
Ted Ginn Jr. 08	71	-13.6%
Darrell Jackson 07	104	-14.5%
Drew Bennett 07	73	-14.8%
Justin McCareins 08	73	-14.9%
Braylon Edwards 08	138	-15.2%
Keary Colbert 07	69	-15.6%
Roy Williams 08	82	-16.0%
Brad Smith 07	67	-16.5%

Top 10 Receptions over Average

Player	Targets	Rec over Average
Andre Johnson 08	170	+16.4
Wayne 07	156	+16.0
Welker 07	145	+15.0
Engram 07	134	+13.9
Breaston 08	113	+12.0
Colston 07	144	+11.8
Randy Moss 07	160	+10.8
Royal 08	129	+10.7
Mason08	58	+10.6
Andre Johnson 07	150	+10.6

Bottom 10 Receptions over Average

Player	Targets	Rec over Average
Keary Colbert	69	-10.4
Arnaz Battle 07	104	-10.8
Drew Bennett	73	-10.8
Justin McCariens 08	73	-10.8
Brad Smith	67	-11.1
Marty Booker 07	105	-12.3
Jerry Porter 07	102	-12.3
Roy Williams 08	82	-13.1
Darrell Jackson 07	104	-15.1
Braylon Edwards 08	138	-21.0