SB Nation - Fabian Washington

Preview: Ravens at Green Bay Packers

Brandon — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 13:00:29 -0000

by Tony Dejak - AP

This is going to be a good game. On paper, the Green Bay Packers seem to be the better team, but it's not a huge advantage. The Packers are favored by 3, but it's probably a pick if this were played on a neutral site. Every play is going to count, and any missed opportunity might be the reason someone loses.

The official team rankings (based on yardage) from NFL.com:

Team	Run Offense	Pass Offense	Run Defense	Pass Defense
Packers	11	6	4	6
Ravens	14	13	6	12

RB Ryan Grant vs. the Ravens run D. Opposing running backs are only averaging 3.5 yards/carry against the Ravens. While this makes it appear that the Ravens have the advantage, it's been hard to predict how Grant will play lately. The offensive line was great at opening running lanes against the 49ers excellent run defense, but they didn't help him much against the Lions when he only had 3.1 yards/carry. Also, the 49ers run a 3-4 defense, just as the Packers and Ravens do, so since the Packers see the 3-4 in practice, maybe that gives them some advantage against a 3-4 defense during a game.

QB Aaron Rodgers vs. the Ravens pass D. Based on the yardage rankings, this looks like a matchup that would favor Rodgers. But the Ravens have held opposing QBs to a rating of 79.0, with 12 TDs (12th fewest) and 12 INTs (7th most). Their pass defense is currently ranked No. 5 overall by Football Outsiders, which would be the best pass defense he's faced so far this season. Though they have lost both starting CB Fabian Washington (torn ACL) and star pass rusher LB Terrell Suggs (torn MCL) in recent weeks. Those injuries are similar to what the Packers have gone through, except LB Aaron Kampman is gone for the season and Suggs should return later this month. In their 2 games without Suggs, who has 3.5 of their 21 sacks on the season, the Ravens were without a sack against the Colts or Steelers, which should help the struggling o-line avoid any disaster. This is a tough matchup for Rodgers, but he's been good to outstanding in every game this season and I wouldn't bet against him.

RB Ray Rice vs. the Packers run D. The Ravens ran the ball a lot in 2008 (37 carries/game), but not nearly so much in 2009 (27.5 carries/game). But their yards/carry has actually gone up from 4.0 to 4.2, in large part to the outstanding season by Rice. I'll still pick the Packers great run defense to win this battle because they haven't struggled against an opponent since RB Cedric Benson's big game in week 2.

QB Joe Flacco vs. the Packers pass D. WR Derrick Mason and RB Ray Rice are having great seasons, and are the leaders in their passing game. Unfortunately they aren't getting much help from the rest of their receivers, though WR Mark Clayton had a great game against the Steelers last week. Football Outsiders has the Ravens pass offense ranked No. 12 overall, but the Packers pass D is ranked No. 3 by them. This looks like a matchup that would favor the Packers, but with two contrasting points. Flacco has a 90.2 QB rating with 13 TDs and 8 INTs, which is similar to QB Carson Palmer (86.7 rating, 15 TDs, 8 INTs) and he threw for 3 TDs against the Packers, in Lambeau, back in week 2. However, that was the first and only game started by SS Aaron Rouse, who was so bad he was released shortly after the game. If the forecast for snow holds up, that might throw all those stats out the window.

Special teams and penalties. Though Mike McCarthy won't admit the special teams have been a disaster in 2009, they've been a disaster. The Packers have been getting killed by hidden yards lost on sacks, special teams, and penalties all season. The sacks might not be a problem, as I noted above, the Ravens haven't had a sack in three weeks. The Ravens special teams have been generally good this season, and they recently signed K Billy Cundiff to have fix their only significant weakness: FG attempts. The Packers will lose at least some yards to the Ravens on special teams. Though the Packers have been awful with penalties this season (66.4 yards/game), the only team worse is the Ravens (66.6 yards/game). This has been an area that's killed the Packers this season, but the Ravens can only expect a slight bump from it.

If the snow turns this game into another HD Bowl (aka 2008 playoff win over the Seahawks) I've got no idea how it could turn out. Which ever team can control the line of scrimmage will win a snow game. Assuming there's no snow, this is still a game I expect the Packers to win. Packers 24, Ravens 17.

Winning, Regardless of How, Still Beats Losing

Bruce Raffel — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 15:37:27 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

24 days ago: Baltimore Ravens' Billy Cundiff (7) is congratulated by snapper Matt Katula, left, and holder Sam Koch, right, after kicking the game-winning field goal in overtime to defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-17 in an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 29, 2009, in Baltimore. The Ravens won 20-17 in overtime. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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Prior to last nights 20-17 overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Baltimore Ravens had lost five of their last seven games, some of them in classic 2009 Ravens' frustrating fashion. Therefore, winning a game, any game, much less one over their hated AFC North division rivals, feels pretty good by my standards.

Even without their top offensive and defensive players, Pittsburgh is still a tough team and played well enough to keep the game close and even had a chance to win it in the extra session. But the Ravens, faced with certain elimination from any real chance at playing in the post season, persevered and with a little help from a couple of rookies and a couple of second year players, pulled out the win off the foot of new kicker Billy Cundiff.

Rookie CB,Lardarius Webb, pressed into starting due to a season ending injury to Fabian Washington last week, almost ended the game with an interception but just couldn't hold onto what would have been a pick-six. Seldom used rookie LB Paul Kruger, who is also getting playing time due to Terrell Suggs' injury, made the totally unexpected interception in OT and ran the ball back deep into Steelers territory. From there, it was just a matter of seconde year QB Joe Flacco handing it to 2nd year RB, Ray Rice, to get the ball into better field position centered for the game winning Cundiff FG.

A lot of fans will say the team looked boring and flat and should have won this game going away. Remember, other than Troy Polamalu, this was the same Pittsburgh defense that shut down the Ravens three times last season and would know they needed to have a solid game to help their offensive issues. Third string QB Dennis Dixon had a great game up until that final interception, passing for one TD and running for another. Overall, the Steelers offense moved the ball pretty well, especially on the ground. One might have thought that the Ravens defense would do whatever it took to shut down the Pittsburgh running game and force Dixon to beat them through the air. However, that didn't happen as the Steelers ran for 153 yards, with 95 from Rashard Mendenhall.

Offensively, the Ravens might have looked boring and inefficient, but they still racked up decent yardage on the ground (132 yards), led by Rice's 88 yards and through the air on Flacco's 23 for 35 for 289 yards and the one TD pass to Derrick Mason(7 receptions for 62 yards). Wide receiver Mark Clayton had one of his best games of his career, catching seven passes for 129 yards, including a great catch off of a long bomb of 54 yards.

All in all, the win keeps us int he playoff hunt and looking at our competition for the post season, we now have the ability to control our own fate. Continuing the progress will require going up to Green Bay to face the Packers next Monday night in what will be the first night game in December in Green Bay history. Why is this? Because it's so damn cold there this time of year, so why do our Ravens get the honor of dealing with those elements? That should be a great game against a very good offense and a Packers team that has played pretty well the last few weeks and are chasing a post season berth themselves. More will follow on the Packers game but for now we can dissect and debate the Ravens win over the Steelers last night, a phrase we haven't uttered for well almost two years now.

Uninformed Recap: Ravens Beat Steelers in OT, 20-17

Brandon — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

The Steelers at Ravens game was a twofer. Here's the boxscore. It had 2 of the Green Bay Packers' next 3 opponents.

In between their games against the Ravens and Steelers, the Packers play the Bears in Chicago. I watched a little of the Bears at Vikings game, but what I did see was ugly (for the Bears). Their defense has looked bad for weeks, and they couldn't do anything to stop the Vikings. 537 yards for the Vikings, and the Bears only had 169. In the 2nd quarter, despite their meager offensive performance, the Bears drove twice into Vikings territory, only to watch QB Jay Cutler throw back-to-back drive killing INTs. And why did they give up their (high) 2nd round pick in 2010 for DE Gaines Adams? He only has 3 tackles in 6 games.

As far as the Steelers at Ravens game goes, my recap is uninformed because I don't know a lot about either team. They both have great defenses, through week 11, according to Football Outsiders, the Steelers had the No. 3 defense and the Ravens' D was No. 4.

The Steelers were able to run straight up the middle, which was where RB Rashard Mendenhall, who had 24 carries for 95 yards (4.0 YPC), went every time he carried the ball. The Ravens D might have lost a step. Just as the Packers have lost Kampman and Harris, the Ravens have lost their top pass rusher, LB Terrell Suggs (torn MCL), and a starting cornerback, Fabian Washington (torn ACL). But the Steelers were forced to start 2nd year QB Dennis Dixon, his first career start, and he was just overmatched. On the Steelers final offensive play, Dixon misread a zone blitz and he threw an INT right at the Ravens' rookie defensive lineman. Overall, Dixon only completed 12 of 26 attempts for 145 yards, but you could tell at times during the game that the Steelers offensive coordinator had lost some faith in him.

The Ravens offense is built around getting the ball to WR Derrick Mason and RB Ray Rice. Though WR Mark Clayton had a big game, 7 catches for 129 yards, that was due in large part to the awful coverage by Steelers CB William Gay. Mason is still a good, Donald Driver type receiver. Rice is an explosive playmaker and he's maybe even more dangerous as a receiver. I don't see how any team can cover him with a linebacker. Despite generating 393 yards of offense, it was boom-or-bust. Most of that yardage came on their 3 scoring drives, while the rest of the time they struggled and were forced to punt 6 times. Their offense isn't any better than the Vikings or Cowboys.

And while the Packers are still No. 1 in most penalty yards allowed per game, the Ravens are a close 2nd. They had 9 penalties for 80 yards against the Steelers, including a killer special teams penalty that erased a huge punt return near the end of regulation. If that return hadn't been called back, the Ravens would likely have kicked a late game winning FG, instead of having to win in OT.

The Packers and Ravens are two comparable teams, and both teams need to keep winning to keep pace for a wild card spot.

Pregame Zone Blitz: Steelers at Ravens

ncoolong — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 15:15:56 -0000

After a disastrous loss to the lowly Chiefs, and Cincinnati's equally disastrous loss to the even lowlier Raiders, the Steelers find themselves in a knock-down, drag-out fight for the AFC North title and a Wild Card spot at the same time.

PZB promises not to mention the phrase "let-down game" again.

The phrases "The Hated Ravens" and "Rivalry Week" will be used liberally, though.

It's so much fun to hate the Ravens, but frankly, there's so much to these games - hence the reason one of the two of them is always on Primetime. There's the fact that last year's AFC Championship game was the most physical in the history of the event. There's the excitement of knowing from the start of the playoffs it was going to be those two teams fighting - literally - for a Super Bowl bid. There was The Bounty, Sweed's smack on Corey Ivy (wait, he's a Steeler now...more on him in a bit), Clark vs. Magahee...and that was all one game.

Now, PZB is still recovering from the stomach punch he took when the Ravens traded up to select Hardcover Boy Michael Oher in last year's draft. I don't think I can even watch the movie, but The Blind Side is probably the most enjoyable book I've ever read. And he's a Raven...damn that hurts.

Anyway...so much to this game. Gotta love The Hated Ravens and Rivalry Week.

Here's what our opponents are saying.

Opponent Web Sites/Forums

Bruce with Baltimore Beatdown sums up the Ravens position against their arch-rivals quite nicely.

Let's remember, this is the best rivalry in the NFL.

The Baltimore Sun (best local team coverage of any paper anywhere) gets the Ravens' reactions to the classic "We'll start our own towel tradition!" bit.

Steelers receivers let out a sigh of disappointment when they find out Ravens CB Fabian Washington was placed on the IR.

Jason Whitlock calls out the Ravens coaching staff in his 10 NFL Truths column (No. 7).

Last Game

SteelerWife texted me during the fourth quarter, saying we had to leave right after it was over because she just threw up in the bathroom. We were with SteelerBro and future Mrs. SteelerBro, so not admitting to her ailment was paramount.

While I wasn't physically sick, that overwhelming feeling of hopelessness was setting in. The Steelers just weren't able to put the plucky Chiefs away. From the minute Pittsburgh's special teams allowed yet another touchdown - and we got the treat of seeing yet another return man run away from a hard-charging Stefan Logan from the end zone cam - the game didn't feel right. Up until the point SteelerWife summarized the game with a few violent heaves in the bathroom of McGovern's, I felt mentally sick.

We normally turn to our quarterback in those situations. He was completing passes, but there was a fumble after a completion by Mike Wallace, there was a ball that went straight through Heath Miller's hands, there was a bad throw in the end zone that was picked off and returned nearly all the way.

Then there was a defense that clearly wasn't on the same page when Chris Chambers waltzed like an elderly man in a ballroom dancing class 60 yards down the field to set up one of the stupidest losses in team history. We were leaving the bar barely before the kick was made.

SteelerWife got sick again on the way home. She got over it. I'm not sure if the Steelers will.

Opponent Spotlight: QB Joe Flacco

Flacco's numbers in his first three games against the Steelers made him look more like JaMarcus Russell.

Granted, if you take out the three games against the Steelers, Flacco looked like a star on the rise.

So far in 2009, he's struggled a little bit more, but his overall scope of work is pretty solid. Eight interceptions are too many for any passer, and it goes a little bit into why Baltimore is 5-5. He hasn't been particularly consistent, either. His last four games, his completion percentage has gone from 80 (win) to 56 (loss) to 72 (win) to 65 (loss).

He's had Player of the Week performances (at Minnesota in Week 6, 385 yards, two touchdowns) and Russell-ian depths (at Cincinnati in Week 9, 18-for-32, 0 TDs, 2 INTs).

Baltimore's defense has been banged up for a good portion of the season. NT Haloti Ngata and DE Terrell Suggs have both missed time this year, and CB Fabian Washington was just placed on the IR. The Ravens have relied on their second year passer to carry much of the burden this year, which is a shift from standard for the defense-laden Ravens. While Flacco has received a boost from All-Purpose Machine Ray Rice (1,248 yards rushing and receiving, seven total TDs), Pittsburgh is going to have harass Flacco much like last year to nullify their own injury disadvantages.

Steelers Spotlight: QB Ben Roethlisberger

(UPDATE: Maybe none of this matters, Fox Sports' Jay Glazer is reporting Roethlisberger will not play Sunday night.)

PZB doesn't catch knees to the head very often. What happened to Roethlisberger in Week 11 looked extraordinarily uncomfortable, but Charlie Batch's Lamar Latrell impression on an out-pattern, followed by his subsequent wrist surgery, makes Roethlisberger's injury look mild by comparison.

At least, that's the impression the team gave off this week. Batch's wrist injury moved Roethlisberger's concussion from "normal" to "mild," and all signs point to Roethlisberger playing Sunday.

That's the case in most people's minds, but Jason La Canfora of NFL.com suggests Ben may bench himself. Seems like a ridiculous notion, but it's worthy of mention, because if Ben doesn't play, the Steelers go into enemy territory with Dennis "Double-D" Dixon under center.

Even funnier, if Roethlisberger doesn't play, former mild Saturday hero Tyler Palko will back Double-D up.

Stranger yet, the chairs of the NFL's concussion committee resigned this week. Is there a connection here?

The last time Roethlisberger played the week following sustaining what was believed to be a concussion was in 2006 at Oakland. The Raiders managed all of 98 yards of offense, but returned two Roethlisberger interceptions for touchdowns. One of those came in the end zone, when CB Chris Carr took it back 100 yards for the decisive score in an improbable 20-13 win.

Should we expect Roethlisberger to perform similarly Sunday? It's a matter of at least some conjecture, but he's played some of the best football of his career against Baltimore. He's also played some of his worst. What we can definitely count on is a lack of rushing game. While it's likely Roethlisberger will be under center, and while it's not the same Ravens team it was a year ago, neither team traditionally runs well against each other, and the key is typically one defense's ability to put the passer on the ground.

Steelers NEW Spotlight: QB Dennis Dixon

Operating under the assumption that Roethlisberger will not play, let's take a look at Dixon, and what we know about the man.

He decided he'd be a better quarterback than a baseball player. So he's got that going for him.

His 3-yard completion to Hines Ward (his 800th career reception) in mop-up time in Week 17 last season makes him one of the few 100 percent completion passers in NFL history. Also a nice honor to have.

What's going to be critical for Dixon, however, is the element of surprise. Teams always have to be wary of the player of which they have no actual game film. Dixon hasn't played against any NFL starting talent (just the preseason taxi squads and the Browns), but those teams haven't seen him either.

The Steelers had the advantage of disguise as well. They could have had Ben running around a bit all week just to put out the idea he's going to play, but behind closed doors, preparing Dixon to start.

Plus, film study, practice reps, preparation...that's one thing. Getting one of the best athletes in the game out on the field with nothing personally to lose (no one expects him to win this game) can be an advantage - even playing on the road.

How quiet do crowds get on the road when Ben scrambles for 17 yards on 3^rd-and-9? How tired do defenses get when he avoids a tackle, buys some time and flicks the ball off to a running back for a 12-yard gain? These all seem to be right in the wheelhouse of a third-string quarterback with all-world athletic ability.

I See You

"Corey's presence here has nothing to do with insight, and more to do with his ability to make plays in the special teams game."

-Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin

I see you, Corey Ivy. That's difficult to say, I'm not gonna lie to you. I've seen you with the Ravens several times over the years. I even saw you with the Browns. You're not someone I've seen positively yet in your career.

I see you now, though, because you've got a chance to get back in the game. There's a few coverage units that need desperate help. We allow kick return touchdowns like we're confused as to whether we're supposed to tackle or block. Our Nickel defense hasn't been great, either.

We need your help, Corey. I know, I Saw Donovan Woods last week, and he didn't exactly come through. But you're going to be the man this week. I'm going to tell you why, too. You didn't hate the Steelers after Limas Sweed laid you out in the AFC Championship game. You hated all the Ravens fans who cast you out. You hated upper management when they brought in Fabian Washington to essentially replace you. You just have to love the Steelers now. They're giving you a chance to go out and exact some level of revenge. I'm looking forward to the roar from Steeler Nation when you make a few special teams tackles, and you grab your place on this roster.

I hope you See it too, Corey. Really, I do. But we gotta watch your lowest low moment again. Sorry.

Key Stats

33 of Ravens QB Joe Flacco's last 53 passes have gone to Derrick Mason or Ray Rice.
Baltimore's offense has failed to score a touchdown in the first half of its last six games.
Rice is second among NFL running backs with 124.8 yards per game from scrimmage.
The 2009 Steelers defense is allowing 11 less rushing yards per game (69.2) than the 2008 Steelers (80.2).

Quick Hitters

I understand the sin of schadenfreude, but frankly, if anyone deserved the misery of dropping seven of his last eight, it's former Ravens coordinator now Jets head coach Rex Ryan. It's nothing against his players or Jets fans, it's the fact he had one full year of experience under a humble coach, John Harbaugh, and three games against another successful and humble head coach, Mike Tomlin, on which to build a career. Instead, Ryan acts like a complete pompous ass, getting in verbal back-and-forths with players on other teams. He calls out the Patriots before their Week 2 game, celebrates as if he won the Super Bowl when he defeating their arch-rivals, then complained after the Pats put a whipping on his team in the re-match. I have a world of respect for Harbaugh and what the Ravens have been able to accomplish. I'm glad to see, records aside, Ryan is no longer a part of this rivalry, but I sure wish the Jets were in the AFC North. I'd love to see Tomlin's reaction to anything that bloated jackhole would have to say.

Perhaps Ravens Played Flat Last Night For A Reason

Bruce Raffel — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 15:23:15 -0000

More photos » by Scott Heckel - AP

about 1 month ago: FIreworks shoot from top of Cleveland Browns Stadium prior to the NFL game between the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns Monday, November 16, 2009 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Ravens won 16-0. (AP Photo/The Repository, Scott Heckel)

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Everyone from the announcers to the media to the fans were ragging on our Ravens about the boring, unoriginal and "flat" play last night in their 16-0 shutout victory over the woeful Cleveland Browns. The offense could only muster a little under 300 yards of total offense that was giving up an average of over 400 yards per game. They joined the Browns in combining to have the only non-scoring first half in the 2009 NFL season thus far. The Ravens could only muster 9 points of scoring offense all game, and scored 13 of their 16 points in a 17 second span of the third quarter.

But as the title suggests, perhaps the Ravens played "flat" on purpose for a reason that borders on strategy with a side helping of over confidence?

Everyone knew the Ravens were clearly the better team going into the game and it wouldn't be surprising to know that the team was likely already looking ahead to their next two opponents, much less the remainder of the season. While the team knew it desperately needed a win to remain in the hunt for a post season berth, they probably figured that just short of showing up was going to be good enough to pull out a win, as ugly as it may look to the rest of the football world watching last night.

I'm sure the team knew what it had to do to win the game, and only opened the playbook far enough to get the job done. Without revealing anything in that binder of formations that the Indianapolis Colts and the Pittsburgh Steelers could practice to prevent, the Ravens just concentrated in bullying the Browns enough to score more points while playing solid defense. Hence the game totals in plays ran from scrimmage, 36 rushing versus only 19 passes. The 19 passing attempts include an ill-timed 3rd down trick play with Ray Rice trying to get the ball downfield to a wide open Todd Heap, underthrowing him for an incompletion. Why they even brought out that play, much less on a third and two where they could have probably just ran the ball for the first down with the game in hand at that point confounded me as well as the announcers.

So before you decide to go off on the team for its bland game plan, try to see that the coaching staff couldn't care less what everyone thinks about their strategy as long as it ends with a victory, which it did. They may be a lot smarter than they are given credit for, as they got the win without revealing anything unusual about the game plan that the Colts and Steelers can take away from the game. However, the defense did shut out an NFL team, which has only happened a handful of times this season and is still a sense of pride regardless of the team they beat. This defense needed this shutout and can use the solid play from many of the guys who have not gotten a lot of reps this year, such as Dwan Edwards, Lardarius Webb, Jameel McClain and even Paul Kruger. Both corners played well, especially Fabian Washington against the run. Terrell Suggs has every reason to be angry at Brady Quinn, who had no reason whatsoever to be blocking Suggs after throwing an interception, much less below the knees and his post game excuse was obviously lame. Losing Suggs for the next stretch of games will hurt this team, as well as the loss of safety Haruki Nakamura, who broke his right ankle on the opening kickoff and should miss the rest of the season. Get well props to both of them, along with Tavares Gooden who suffered another concussion and Todd Heap, who bruised his chest late in the game.

On the Browns side, here's hoping return man Josh Cribbs is okay after taking a hard shot on the game's final play, although Dwan Edwards hit was legal and besides, the play was a stupid one for a team trailing by 16 points.

Finally, we can't end this post without mentioning the pathetic job our placekicker has done all season. Sorry to call you out Steven Hauschka, but when you put on the team's colors, you are in the spotlight and are only as good as your kicks, which have been hooking left since the first game of the season. Missing those easy ones will keep the talk about letting Matt Stover go fresh on the tongues on your detractors. While I was in favor of replacing Stover, he was money inside the 40 but was shaky beyond that. You are missing wide left regardless of the distance and have pretty much proven that the pressure of kicking in the NFL is well beyond your capabilities. Now the team should be signing someone else as they have tried out other kickers but for some reason decideed to give you another chance, which you blew big time last night. While the readers of The Beatdown know whom I'd like to see here, at this point I'm sure everyone agrees that anyone other than you will be an upgrade, as there can't be a single person over at One Winning Drive that secretly or openly has any confidence when you trot onto the field.

Other than that, I'm not discouraged, I'm satisfied that we are where we needed to be before last night to set us up for the next two games which will absolutely define our season and with that, our post season.

MHR Chalk Talk - Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens 2009

Steve Nichols — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:30:31 -0000

How good are the Ravens? Don't be fooled by the 3-3 record. They've beat the teams they should have (KC and CLE), and won against a tough SD team. Their losses came to teams that are pretty good (NE, CIN, and MIN). Don't sell this team short.

On the other hand, many folks are more likely to sell Denver short. Vegas has them down by 3 points at the time of this writing, despite a 6-0 record. Denver beat two teams that beat BAL (NE and CIN), as well as CLE, SD, OAK, and DAL. How good is Denver?

Special Teams - Sep and Oct players of the month (Kicker Matt Prater and Returner Eddie Royal).

Offense - Kyle Orton, who played the first four games with a protective glove has thrown only one INT (a bomb throw to end a half with no time left) and holds a 100+ QB rating.

Defense - Keeping opponents to an average 11 points a game.

But how do the teams match up? Both teams come off of a bye week, and have had ample time to draw up superior game plans. Who wins in each aspect of the game, and how should they plan the game? Let's look at some possibilities....

Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense

(Advantage in bold and italics)

Ravens Offense Broncos Defense

Points 28.2 (5th) 11 (1st)

Yards 393.2 (5th) 262.5 (2nd)

Pass 268.3 (8th) 182.8 (8th)

Run 124.8 (10th) 79.7 (3rd)

Two things come to mind when thinking of Denver's pass defense. First, the Denver secondary is legendary. Brian Dawkins at FS and Champ Bailey at CB is unbelievable. But Denver's pass rush is amazing, too. Elvis Dumervil (ROLB/RDE) is a pass-rushing machine and leads the NFL with 10 sacks. Elvis gets moved around the line to create confusion and mismatches, and his exceptionalism allows other players to make plays as well. How does the Baltimore Offense counter?

Well, that's a tricky question. In their last three games, Baltimore has given up seven sacks. Jared Gaither (LT) will play this week, but fans of both teams will hold their breath because Jared suffered a scary neck injury earlier on, and this makes things dicey.

Beyond that, Joe Flacco (QB) is playing very well with a 93.8 QB rating (and is coming off of a hurt ankle). His WRs may be a little suspect, though. Derrick Mason is a good WR, and needs to be accounted for. Todd Heap is also a fine TE. But according to Bruce (our good friend from Baltimore Beatdown) the receiving corps is having issues with passes over the middle, and is depending on sideline curls (too much). Frankly, I don't think this hurts Baltimore against Denver.

Against a great secondary, there are two things to avoid. One is the deep pass, and the other is an "out route". Both are the leading ways to get an interception, and a well-placed pass on a curl route is a safe (if boring) way to move the ball. In fact, Denver isn't averse to short hitches and curls to the edges on offense, and they move the ball just fine without interceptions in that mode. This is also a good, quick way to get rid of the ball against a good pass rush.

Baltimore's offense would be wise to stick with those curls. They have a decent running game behind backs Ray Rice with 6 yds per carry (who is also effective out of screens), and Willis McGahee (4.5 ypc). In fact, a lot of the Baltimore offense reminds me of Denver's.

Baltimore has a good running game, and they do well with short, high-percentage throws. They also make threats with screens.

This is an efficient team that doesn't bowl you over with yards, but they make their yards count and put up a lot of points. Denver is also learning the value of this kind of football. Having jettisoned a QB that put up excellent yards but a lot of INTs, Denver has moved in the direction of "game management", careful passing football and racked up wins as a result.

How does one attack such a team? Baltimore has an offensive issue that Denver's offense doesn't share - pass blocking. I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but Denver is winning the defense battles with an amazing pass rush, and they should do that here, too.

A good pass rush from the front 5 (Denver runs a 5-2 look) allows the two ILBs to account for the run, and plugs enough gaps (Denver runs a 1-gap attack) to prevent runs. But in the pass game, that same effective rush harries QBs and can break up plays in the backfield before they get started. If Baltimore can hold the Denver rush (a tall order) they can get the screens out, and make the quick, short passes to move the ball down field steadily. And while nobody is running the Broncos over in the running game (Denver holds teams to under 80 yards rushing), Baltimore needs to try to be the first. A good running game brushes back effective rushes and blitzes, and this would take away Denver's best defensive asset. Still, that's a tough order.

Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense

Broncos Offense Ravens Defense

Points 22.2 (17th) 21.7 (19th)

Yards 368.7 (9th) 332.7 (19th)

Pass 236 (12th) 241.5 (23rd)

Run 132.7 (7th) 91.2 (7th)

Remember the days when the Ravens were killers on defense, but not so hot on offense? Things have changed quickly. Denver may not light up the scoreboard, but the Ravens aren't exactly shutting down offenses, either. How do offenses beat the Ravens? In the air.

The Ravens have a strong run defense. The DL features former Broncos favorite Trevor Pryce at LDE, but the real power is at LB with LILB Ray Lewis and ROLB Terrell Suggs. Behind them is one of my favorite free safeties in the game, Ed Reed. Ed is one of those "do it all" guys that can cover the pass and slam into a RB like a freight train. But Lewis, Suggs, and Reed are having a rough time this year, and the problem is at corner.

Samari Rolle is a very good corner, but is on the PUP list (injury). He may likely not return this season. This leaves Fabian Washington (who?) at #1 corner and former Bronco nickleback Domonique Foxworth at #2. Neither player has an INT this year.

The Baltimore pass rush faces a difficult prospect, too. Denver's tackles (Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris) are both young, Pro Bowl-caliber players. Pressure will need to come up the middle, if at all. As Orton is a pocket passer, this is where rushes need to come from, anyway.

So the Ravens' best card is their run defense, which ties Denver's run offense. Not a dominating way to face the Broncos.

Denver's path to winning is classic. First, see who has the edge in the running game. If Denver establishes the run, the game is over. I don't see the Ravens stopping the pass in any event. If Denver can run, they can mix up the run and pass, and go from there. The best option may not be the runs up the gut (Denver is awful on short-yardage, 3rd-down scenarios). Denver should test the edges.

Whether the run works or not, expect Denver to play 3 WR (or more) sets. This forces Baltimore to take LBs off the field (their strength) and to replace them with corners (their weakness). Denver has excellence at WR in depth:

Brandon Marshall, who zigzags and plows overs defenders with ease,
Eddie Royal, who ran a kick return and punt return for TDs against the Chargers in the last game,
Jabar Gaffney, who runs routes perfectly in the Denver system (the same routes he ran in NE),
Brandon Stokley, who switches up at slot with Jabar, and has experience, toughness, and great hands.

Between Orton's intelligent ball-handling, Denver's receivers, and the weakness at Baltimore's CBs, this is the matchup Denver fans should look forward to the most - the Denver passing game. If I'm running Baltimore's defense, I put the CBs in zone and play bend-don't-break.

Keys to the Game

Denver

Stop the run. I don't think Baltimore can win as a one-dimensional offense.
Get the early lead. Denver has been starting slow, but an early lead takes away the Baltimore running game.
Avoid turnovers. Baltimore can win this game if they win on field position. They can do this with a key fumble recovery or two. They shouldn't get many chances for INTs against Orton.

Baltimore

Win the time of possession battle. Keep the ball away from Denver's offense.
Win the special teams battle. Don't let Royal get going on punts or kicks. Denver has a new punter this week - make the most of it. Field position!
Baltimore has been able to put up a lot of points this year. Denver is NOT a shootout team.

Conclusion

Both teams are coming off of a bye. The game is in Baltimore, and Baltimore doesn't want to be 3-4 after this week. The weather (at the time of this writing) is expected to be rain. This favors defense and running. For this matchup, this would favor Baltimore.

On the other hand, Denver beats Baltimore in 6 of 8 comparisons I've listed above, and ties in two (based in relative League rankings). In terms of player matchups, I give Denver the advantage in depth. In fact, I give Denver the edge or tie at every player position comparison, including STs (Den) and Coaching (Den).

In my mind, Baltimore is very underrated. While their AFC North rivals PITT and CIN look good this year, BAL is a team that could turn on a dime and improve quickly. The only area that I believe they are stuck without improvement in is cornerbacks.

I don't expect to pick Denver every game this year. The only game I didn't pick Denver was against NE, and I called that one "too close to call". Sure enough, that game went into overtime, so I'll call that a "correct". Tough games still loom on the horizon (Indy and NYGs), but for now, Denver has proven they are for real and I'll stick with them.

Poll

Other than being 6-0, what has been the biggest surprise so far?

Royal returns a kick and a punt for TDs in same game.

186 votes

Doom leads the League in sacks near season half mark.

269 votes

Orton has only 1 INT this year (and that was on a hail mary).

730 votes

1185 votes | Poll has closed

Broncos Thoughts & Musings, Part 3: Ravens Week

Emmett Smith — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 12:30:20 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

2 months ago: Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels reacts to the game winning touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/ Jack Dempsey )

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I found myself looking around the 'Net at stats and articles, as I often do. The outcome was an increased emphasis on examining our defense (since the offense was already a big part of Part II) and a longer look at the Baltimore Ravens. Their situation brought out a chance to talk about the history of the passing game in the NFL as well as the inevitable upcoming game prediction, so settle in and let's take a walk through the last of the October BT&M.

Name that Gloom

It's been a lot of fun watching folks locally and nationally scrambling to name the Broncos defense this season. From my perspective, the search for a name for the Denver D isn't a big concern. Do you want a description? While it's not poetic, the best way to describe them may be 'sulfuric acid' - when you pour them onto an offense, that opponent's abilities quickly dissolve and it begins to stink. They are a gloomsday defense, one that shreds the confidence of the cockiest (yep, looking at you, Crimea Rivers), destroys their morale, and along with Orton's skills in the 4th quarter, ensures an outcome that is only happy to those in predominantly orange. Two third-down conversions in the 2nd halves of games, and both of those within the first two games makes it nearly impossible for an opposing team to win a close game. If you can't score, you can't win. Just ask the Pats, Cowboys or Chargers.

And Baltimore, as talented as they are, has to play the Broncos who are coming off a bye and who have had 2 weeks to prepare. I like the Ravens, but not in this matchup. I expect another great, rugged, physical game. When the Broncos are in the playoffs after this season, no one will be able to suggest that they got there any way but the toughest. There's no better way to prepare for the playoffs than going up against the best during the regular season.

The Essence of Defense

I was re-watching for the 15th time the play that ended in Darrell Reid's sack during the late stages of the SD game. Some things happened during it that defined for me a big reason that the Broncos are winning so effectively. Chargers were on a third-and-long situation, an obvious passing down. The defense lined up in its base 5-2 - apparently. But once the ball was snapped, all heck broke loose.

Vonnie Holliday, who's been a stellar pickup, was manning the RDE. At the snap, he drove into the left guard's (Pro Bowler Kris Dielman) right shoulder and bulldozed him back and then into the left tackle, Marcus McNeill, whose attention had been fixed on Robert Ayers (lined up outside on the weakside). Ayers left off and tried a stunt up the middle, but he didn't get there. While Holliday was taking out two linemen and Ayers was trying to stunt, Davis came up the middle through the exposed gap and forced Philip Rivers to the back where Darrell Reid was pushing through from the strongside - sack! Reid received a sack on the play, but Holliday, Ayers and Davis, combined, didn't scratch the scorecard. Their effort just made the play work. Not only did he tie up two defenders, Holliday opened a hole that would have created a run-to-daylight TD had it been on the offensive side. The linebackers made the play on Rivers, who is one of the best in the league at handling the blitz and who still didn't have a chance. That explained the lack of the Chargers' scoring after halftime. Another gold star to Mike Nolan, another win for Denver. And Vonnie?

"We'd love all of our players to have the same leadership qualities Vonnie Holliday does, but we knew Vonnie Holliday could still be an active, productive football player in our scheme," Josh McDaniels said.

Two more quick thoughts on this: First, check out this article on the development of Robert Ayers. The reason that I'm adding it now is that Ayers has consistently done much the same that Holliday did -- driving to the QB, tying up 1-2 defenders, plugging his gaps and letting Doom rack up the sacks. We are stat-obsessed at times and much of the distaste I've heard regarding Ayers is a classic example of that. He's doing a great job for a young OLB/DE. We're lucky to have him - but it wasn't luck at all. McDaniels/Xanders knew exactly what they wanted when they chose him.

Next, we need to keep something in mind -- the 49ers didn't do at all well with Mike Nolan's defenses. Why? They complained frequently that his shifts, adjustments and schemes were 'too confusing, too complex'. The Broncos went out and got intelligent players for whom this isn't a problem. Consider the article from the Denver Post by Dave Krieger -- in his defense, the latest columnist to chomp on blackbird and enjoy the taste -- which talks about how effectively the Broncos change things at halftime (throughout the game, really) and how their players execute the changes without a walkthrough. It's a good example of this same principle.

When I broke down the film from the Chargers game, I quickly found that they had tremendous difficulties figuring out how to block the Broncos defensive rush. That wasn't exactly a shock, but a lot of it was that they could not, as Josh McDaniels pointed out last Thursday, use the running back, for example, to block a certain player because they never really knew if that player was coming or not. LaDainian Tomlinson, in fact, often chose the wrong lane to try and stop a rusher, only to find out that someone else had blown by him and gotten to Rivers. Eventually, Rivers didn't make many throws without a Bronco in his face or on his back. Small wonder that he couldn't score late.

By the way, it was nice to see Le Kevin Smith in on a few of those tackles. He's another perfect pickup who brings the skill, experience and talent that the Broncos needed to win right away. What depth this team has!

Safety in Numbers

Josh Barrett's ability to shut down the TE was evidenced again against Antonio Gates, who is still one of the best TEs in the game. Darcel McBath's overall skill has worked in the secondary and on special teams, while David Bruton's appearance on ST blocks and tackles helped spring Eddie Royal on both returns for TDs. These are all reasons to love the Broncos' young safety squad. We have three talented, hard-working young men who are learning from some of the best players in the league,as well as some of the best coaches. All three have been among the best stories on special team. Darcel McBath appears able to do anything we ask of him and Barrett now has shown that he can handle Gates as well as Tony Gonzales. When Wesley Woodyard struggles on the TE, expect to see Barrett out on the field more often. Barrett is being developed slowly, as befits a player who came into the league so raw, and he has the physical gifts to excel as he matures. Bruton may be the slowest of the three to develop, in the end, but that doesn't mean that he's in any way a disappointment. I've already heard folks wondering what we'll do when Dawkins retires (at about age 52). We've got three solid young options to develop against that day. I know that folks are talking about Eric Berry or Taylor Mays, but we've got exactly what we need - young, smart, skillful, hardworking players that can do their jobs.

That's something that we've been conditioned, as fans, to overlook. We are drawn to glitz, to fame and personality. There's nothing wrong with that per se, but that's not how the Patriots became a perennial power and it isn't how the Broncos will stay one. Getting marquee players is fine, so don't misunderstand me. I love Mays and Berry.and they'll be solid-to-great players in the NFL. But by establishing the three young players that we have, just as we are doing with Jack Williams and Alphonso Smith at CB and Ryan McBean, Robert Ayers and several others, we're creating a team that won't have huge cap issues, that fields a squad of tough, smart players who are focused on winning and execution, and who may have less stars, but will have more winners. In the end - that's what it's all about.

Taking Your Best Shot

I had to laugh at the blurb TedB did on shots this week, with the resultant recipes and member preferences. Great stuff, folks. At this point, my choice of shots tends to be morphine or Dilaudid. Wusses... ;-)

Final Thought - The Ravens

I don't really believe that anything the Broncos did in seasons past bears much on this year. For that reason, although the Broncos have a history of winning coming off the bye week, I don't see that as relevant. On the other hand, most teams play well with an extra week of rest and the Broncos will follow suit. They will have an extra week to gameplan, too, and that's never going to be a bad thing with our coaching staff. I don't discount the Ravens staff, either.

So, let's look at Baltimore. I see a very good team on both sides of the ball and one that may have its back to the wall. They're at home, and they're coming off a bye (but so are we). They are showing some weaknesses in their defensive secondary, and that's to the advantage of Denver. Orton's arm has proven more than strong enough to pick apart a team that leaves holes, especially if the rush doesn't reach Orton. Our offensive line will have its work cut out for it in the running game, but as the last two games showed, the Ravens can be beaten on the ground. This is a great opportunity for Knowshon Moreno to shine, and Correll Buckhalter is going to get a lot of chances as well. It's close, but I believe that our offense can overcome the Ravens defense in a close, hard-fought game.

But while this is a change in Baltimore, stopping their offense will be very tough, even for a defense as gifted as the Broncos. One big reason is the running game - Ray Rice is a heck of a back and their line is blocking well for him. The other is the way that the Ravens have delved into history to establish a passing offense that takes advantage of the skills of Joe Flacco, who was underestimated by many coming out of college. The abilities of Baltimore offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, who is at the top of his game, are nothing to take lightly. As far as Cameron goes, here's some thoughts:

Everyone knows how much I enjoy the history, skills and writings of Bill Walsh. While he has a special place in my heart, I like to go out of my way to credit Sid Gillman and Paul Brown for much of what Walsh developed into his own approach. On the other side of the passing game, the vertical passing game side that also traces to Sid Gillman, you have the 'Air Coryell' style approach - the vertical game. Many coaches have used and improved upon it, but Coryell was in many ways the key to its development. There is even a legitimate argument that these are the two most important forks in the passing game road, although by no means the only important ones. Both came down from the works of Sid Gillman. Most NFL teams will tend to use more of one or the other of these two iconic approaches.

The Ravens tend to bend more to the Coryell approach. Coryell took the old 'passing tree' concept and improved on it in his own ways. Every offensive coordinator, even those that fans (including, I'm ashamed to admit, myself) tend to see as 'conservative', such as Ron Turner, takes those routes and concepts and turns them into a bewildering confabulation of lines, twists, routes, concepts and options. The Walsh-based systems tend to emphasize timing routes and the shorter game (although not ignoring the mid- and deep-passing game, as some have claimed) and prefers to name the routes, while the Coryell-ancestry systems will blend a passing game that is delineated with numbers and is more heavily based off of the '9' (go) route. But every modern system is complex, weaving incredible variations of routes that look more like a pile of malaria germs than trees.

Within all modern systems, you also have a great emphasis on having the receiver see, dissect and recognize the various coverages and to adjust his routes accordingly to find the weaknesses in the coverage. The quarterback has to instantly see, understand and adapt to those changes, which is one reason that a smart QB can be more dangerous than a stronger one. The routes are not necessarily etched in stone. Sometimes they are fluid and adaptive, making the connection between receivers and quarterback essential to success. That's something that many seem to have ignored when Orton didn't fly out of the gate like Brady in 2007. It will always take a while for the receivers and quarterbacks to learn each other's patterns, tendencies and skillsets. The skill of the receivers at coming out of their breaks instantly and smoothly is often the difference between a completion and a failure.

Here's a Broncos example: Late during the Chargers game, with the Broncos driving, Brandon Stokley made an adjustment to the Chargers coverage that Orton had never seen (and which Stokley claims that he'd never used before) on the fly. Orton saw, understood and used it, throwing the pass where only Stokes could get it and the result was adding 6 to the Broncos' total. The ability of the seasoned receiver to use the basics of the system, analyze the defense and to adapt the route to the personnel and coverage to produce a completion is an essential aspect of modern success with the offensive game.

In the same way, Brandon Marshall communicated a weakness in the Dallas defense to Orton and told him to look for a certain variation on the hitch route if Terrence Newman acted a certain way, indicating a certain coverage. That pass was good for 6 points and the victory over the Cowboys. The reason that some fans argued that it wasn't 'really' a hitch route is that it was, but Orton and Marshall had also agreed on the way that they would vary it to defeat the coverage.

This may seem a bit long-winded, but here's the point: The Ravens have gotten very, very good at this. They like the vertically-based system, whose weakness is that it takes just a moment or two longer to set up. Flacco has the intellect and the arm - the intellect scares me more. His receivers have been doing a solid job of breaking down the defenses, and the offensive coordinator has been very good this year, despite the recent three loses. Flacco has learned a lot about his receivers and they are getting very good at creating options for him to employ. If you add the power running approach that they are playing and playing well, this is a team with a lot of strengths and not that many weaknesses.

But as we've seen, they can be beaten. I think that this may be the toughest game so far, and because of that, it's the one I'm looking forward to the most. We have a very challenging schedule, but this game, like all of them, is still winnable. We have to get to Flacco, our secondary has to continue to be titanium and our offense has to put points on the board. Nothing deep there - just hard-nosed football. But the Ravens pass rush hasn't been stout and the Broncos O-line has.

I saw cornerback Frank Walker get utterly hosed by the Vikings on more than one play and he had been brought in to replace Fabian Washington, who was even worse. Our receivers need to play well, but what's new? The Ravens have also given up two 100-yard rusher games in the past two tries. They gave up 77 total points in losses to New England, Cincinnati and Minnesota and we've beaten two of those teams. I wouldn't read too much into that, though - the losses were by a combined 11 points. The Ravens are in it each week.

They miss Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard, although Ed Reed is as dangerous as ever. Tavares Gooden isn't the same caliber as Scott, not that that's an insult to him. Our visiting friend Bruce Raffel from the Ravens SB Nation site says that Gooden will probably be tasked with covering Tony Scheffler, and if so, there's a huge mismatch there. Cornerback is a tough issue for Baltimore: In addition to the problems with Washington and Walker, Chris Carr looks sloppy at times and I expect to see more of Lardarius Webb. The Ravens have given up 25 plays of 20 yards or more, though, and that's not how you win championships. At this point, a championship is what the Broncos are obviously playing for, although I don't see them getting ahead of themselves. Big plays may decide this game.

I believe that McDaniels will pull out more of his seemingly infinite bag of tricks and give the Ravens the toughest challenge that they have faced this year. Due to the factors on the Ravens side -- home field, bye and having their backs to the wall -- I'm calling it a one point victory, and I think that it will come down to the 4th quarter. The Broncos are, right now, the meanest 4th quarter team in the NFL, and that should be the difference in the game. Broncos 24-23 in a nail-biter.

I'll see you in a couple of weeks, my friends. Go Broncos!

Doc

Broncos Thoughts and Musings - A look back at Chargers Week

Emmett Smith — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 17:00:30 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

2 months ago: Denver Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno, center, goes over the top of San Diego Chargers linebackers Tim Dobbins (51) and Stephen Cooper (54) while gaining two yards for a first down in the third quarter of the NFL football game Monday, Oct. 19, 2009 in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

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Having taken a 'bye' week of my own, I thought that I'd put together a few musings for the general group. Before getting into the meat of this week's offering, though, I'd like to take a minute to mention a phenomena that has been showing its ugly face around Broncos Country. I'm talking about the problems of our fans having a 'Shanahangover': the sinking belief that the issues of the past years, in which the Broncos look good enough to fool us and lull us into a state of complacency before succumbing to a massive blowout (often to an inferior team) and shattering our dreams, could resurface in 2009. It's a dangerous disease, but fatal only to those who believe that this year's team has something in common with the teams of the past - notably, the past three seasons. Time will tell, but I don't see this happening any longer.

I've read this from a few of the members and in other blogs and sites: "The Broncos have fooled us before." It's true, too, but that was before a new sheriff, deputy, posse, marksman and scouts came into the picture. No matter what you've seen in the past, this team has little or nothing to do with the Ghosts of Seasons Past. The improvement in the coaching, performance of players, attitude and execution is light years beyond what we as fans are used to. Whether it's our team or another, living in the past is an exercise in misunderstanding the present. This is not last year's Broncos. It's a whole new experience.

As an example, Arrowhead Stadium is likely to be a tough place to win; but it's not because the Broncos haven't played well there in the past. They often didn't, but that's not a matter for this year's team. It's a windswept, loud, raucous place to play. It's hard to hear signals if the place is full and I don't take any game lightly, particularly a division rival. While I do think that the Chiefs are in early stages of an upswing, I'm not at all concerned that they're better than Denver or that they will beat us, even in their own house. Our veterans aren't going to take games off and they're not going to let the younger players take anyone lightly. If the Broncos play anywhere near their skill level, they're just too good for most teams. We've got a lot of great contests coming up, but one thing that doesn't concern me at all is the possibility that we will revert to the habits of seasons past. It's not going to happen, so put it out of your mind.

Charging into the Future

Before the Monday Night Football game that extended the Broncos' record to 6-0, Chargers TE Antonio Gates said, "One thing that gives us a chance is that we're still in the hunt in the AFC West. We never said it had to be pretty, and it wasn't pretty last year." After the game, it was a lot uglier. If Gates believes that the Chargers are still in the hunt, he needs to define his terms pretty quickly.

"It's tough to always be in this situation," Gates said afterward. "We didn't plan on being here. We didn't plan on being 8-8 last year either. But here we are. We have to keep working, or it could snowball and turn into a losing streak."

"We didn't plan on getting here." If there are words perfectly suited for failure, I think those should be high on the list. "We didn't plan on being here." Yes, that about covers it.

Bear in mind that they also didn't plan well enough to avoid it. They didn't run the extra sprints that the Broncos endured to get in better shape than their opponents. They didn't make the personnel moves that the Broncos did, realizing that no matter how good you were supposed to be, an 8-8 record will rarely get you into the postseason. They didn't identify the weaknesses that they had, nor the ones that could arise with age, injury and contract status. They didn't do enough to prepare themselves for the fact that Shawne Merriman was very unlikely to have a great year this year. Few will, after the kind of surgery that he had. In short - they didn't plan to succeed, either.

I'm sympathetic to their injury issues among linemen. That's tough and often unpredictable. But even there - is it a shock that Jamal Williams (who's had more surgeries than an aging Hollywood ingenue) would start to break down? Nick Hardwick has had a lot of injuries, plenty of surgeries (and I thought that Scott Mruczkowski did a very good job until Mike Nolan outfoxed him). Igor Olshansky was going to be gone. I wrote last spring about the issues that the Chargers were going to be experiencing, and I'm no expert. So, what happened?

Three things, I'd argue, and all are common: arrogance, lassitude and reversion to the mean. Arrogance in this case includes believing that you can start out poorly season after season and still make up the ground - the continuing decline of their schedule argues against that. But the arrogance also includes the behavior of individuals, including fighting within the team that is seen in public. Then there's lassitude, as in admitting, as A.J. Smith did last February, that the Chargers' woes were in great part on him but not doing more about it. And reversion to the mean: this is a team that has been heading for mediocrity (and how obvious can that be, after going 8-8?) for some time. It needed major help, and it got a few band-aids.

I loved the Kevin Burnett pickup, and it's just bad fortune that he's hurt. I liked the Larry English draft pick, and he's getting there. I also liked the Louis Vasquez draft pick, and he's developing quickly. I can't even fathom the Kynan Forney (who's since been released) or Travis Johnson pickups, though. The Bolts tended to stand pat with a suspect secondary, didn't develop their depth and accepted on faith that bad performances were anomalies instead of facts. It bought them a game in which a stellar performance by Philip Rivers wasn't enough, in which Nolan and McDaniels out-coached Ron Rivera and Norv Turner and in which the best the Chargers could bring wasn't close to enough.

There will, as Merriman pointed out, be a rematch. I look forward to it, and I'm sure the Broncos do. Stating before the game that 'the Broncos can't stop me' wasn't Rivers' smartest move. Claiming that they will get revenge after the game wasn't Merriman's, but I do appreciate the help those things gave Denver. If the Broncos needed any aid in getting up for the home half of this series, which I greatly doubt, they won't after that night's statements.

Arrogance...some things don't change.

Losing the Locker Room

That same arrogance has infected the locker room and the very attitude of the Chargers. You could see in a single moment why the Chargers have problems with their team very clearly during the first quarter of the Monday night game. The Chargers bogged down at the goal line - LaDainian Tomlinson was stopped short of the goal line twice. They took him out on the third play and put in Darren Sproles, trying to take advantage of a seam that Turner had seen. Tomlinson paced the sidelines, obviously complaining bitterly about not being in. The Broncos stopped Sproles and the Bolts short again, and they settled for kicking the FG.

It got me to thinking. Last year at this time, the Chargers were starting slow, appeared unmotivated and perhaps even ill-prepared. Tomlinson was also complaining - about the play calling, the offensive line, and not getting enough carries. Now, imagine that he was in orange and blue. How likely is it that a Bronco would do that - two years running? If you consider that Turner's team has gone from 14-2 before he arrived, to slow starts three years running, you start to see why that might be true. Players fight with management in the media. The GM insults his team, as A.J. Smith did by calling their play 'soft'. Nowhere is there a sign that adults are in charge. Merriman has a public feud with Smith, dating back a couple of seasons. Smith doesn't like his side jobs, feeling that it takes away from the team. LDT fights with Turner, expresses his feelings and tussles with Smith this past offseason, very publicly. Smith gets quickly pulled into it. No one wins.

This past week, it was wide receiver Chris Chambers. A non-factor for quite a while now, he was complaining to the press that his snaps are being taken by Malcolm Floyd. I don't know what he expected - he's not gaining separation, he's not getting open and he hasn't shown a ton of skill at fighting for the ball. But he's still touting himself as if it were three seasons ago and he was doing good things. It's the kind of thing that you're not seeing from the Broncos, the kind of thing that tells you when a franchise is in disarray.

I can't even express my gratitude for the fact that Josh McDaniels has very good management skills. He won't carry arguments into the media, rarely gets flustered and keeps things behind closed doors. I've fired people for the kinds of destructive behavior that I've seen from the Chargers over the past two years. Those who claim that this is football and that it's really okay to have things this way should consider how the Broncos do handle things -- and how their team acts and plays. As in, as a unit. As a real team, one that's going good places. It matters. Once in a while, a dysfunctional team has a good year. Most of the time, though, they flame out, and the talent levels don't matter enough to get them where they want to go. That's happening in San Diego, and while it's good for the Broncos, it's an obvious sign of the Bolts organization needing a makeover.

Asked before the MNF debacle, LDT was asked what he saw in the Charger's locker room. "It's a quiet confidence. You look in each man's eyes in that locker room, you can tell there is something extra."

Did they also see that you'd be pacing the sidelines, yelling and pouting, LDT? Perhaps not. That's one reason that the Chargers are 3 games back. Even worse for the Bolts and better for the Broncos, LDT hasn't been alone.

Beating Kansas City has given the Bolts a brief respite, but that's hardly a road back into the land of the competitive. While I do think that the Denver game as been a wakeup call of Shakespearean proportions for San Diego, their problems run too deep to permit them to make the late season run this year profitable. The game in Denver will be a grudge match. Given the state of the raiders and Chiefs, that's a good thing. It may keep thing much more interesting.

Some Other Stats that Matter (With apologies to Lebowski)

What did the Broncos do right so far this year? It's a long list, but try these perspectives on the rushing game:

Stuffs per carry - Correll Buckhalter, 4th, at 0.043 Knowshon Moreno at 9th, with 0.061
Stuffed: Best in league - It only happened on 8 plays. Despite the issues that can improve in short yardage, the problem isn't with negative plays.
YPC: Buck, 1st, 6.7 Broncos 11th, 4.3
Yards: Broncos 7th, 798
Big play rushes: tied for 9th, 20
100-yard rushers against: 0
100 yards rushing by opposing teams: 0
Passes dropped, over 6 games: 5. Four of those came in the first two weeks. It's all about doing your job and doing it right.

Let's also look at the percentage of rushing versus passing plays. Going back to the offseason, Doug (nycbroncosfan) and I published the "Divining Josh McDaniels" series. We said at the time that McD had been viewed at being more of a passing kind of guy than he really deserved. It was true when McD was in NE and it is true in Denver. We're in 8th, with 47.7% rushing and therefore 52.3% passing - a very even, balanced attack. Over the last 4 years, McDaniels had averaged 43.1% rushing plays. That seems low, but it's not if you look at how the team was structured. In 2008 that number was 46.8% rushing and that was similar to 2006 as well. On the other years, the passing game was working too well to minimize it. Josh McD believes in maximizing all of your skill sets and using the ones that the defense lets you win with, whether it's the pass or the run. As you would expect, he's attempting to make sure hat both are viable options. It's that simple. By getting Moreno, Buckhalter, Orton, the O-line and the receiving corps, he can go either way with complete confidence. That makes it very hard to stop the Broncos' offense.

You might also look at how the aging, decrepit defensive secondary is doing. Teams have been challenging Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins and getting their hats handed to them. Take a look at these stats: Bailey is tied for 2nd in the league with 8 passes defensed; Dawkins is tied for 11th with 6.

The Broncos have two players in the top 11 in the NFL in passes defensed -- and both players are over 30. That's a stat that not a lot of casual fans follow, but it tells you a lot about a team. It tells you that the Broncos have age, wisdom and maturity in the defensive secondary. Experienced players know how to communicate and that skill is constantly undervalued. It also tells you that those who believe that Champ Bailey, Andre' Goodman, Brian Dawkins and Renaldo Hill are 'losing a step' need to find their argument. Dawkins and Bailey are among the league leaders and are getting some payback on the 'lost a step' crowd. Andre' Goodman and Renaldo Hill are playing the best ball of their careers. The young guys, Alphonso Smith and Jack Williams, are also paying well and Darcel McBath has already shown why we drafted him on defense as well as by leading the team on special-teams tackles.

I'll be back later today with more Thoughts and Musings...

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 12:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

2 months ago: Denver Broncos coach Josh McDaniels salutes the crowd after the Broncos defeated the New England Patriots 20-17 in overtime in an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Is anybody else feeling like they could get used to feeling like this on a Tuesday? It's great to be 5-0, isn't it? Maybe Mark Kiszla is right, and we should all join him in welcoming Kyle Orton to Denver, since MHR is clearly bringing up the rear, there. Y'all know how skeptical I have been. Despite our ongoing skepticism, and community-wide propensity for all things negative, we press on. Ready..... BEGIN!!!!

1. Speaking of my skepticism, I was pretty high on this team, heading into the first game.

This is an 11-5 football team, and it's one that is only going to improve as it adds more quality talent in the next few years. I put my money where my mouth is too, donating $11 to the Susan G. Komen Race For The Cure, on John Bena's wife's behalf. Please do the same thing, if you can, by donating $1 for every win you think the Broncos will get this season. Things have to break right for that to happen, sure, but I think they will. Forget last season, this is a totally different thing.

Well, that caused a stir. John Bena took a beating on Twitter about it, and even my brother Chris thought I was about 4 games too generous. At this point, I am frankly wondering if I shorted the Susan G Komen outfit by a buck or two. One mea culpa though.

By the way, the Broncos five losses are to the Patriots, Giants, and Raiders at home, and the Chargers and Eagles on the road. I know a lot of people will groan at the thought of losing to Oakland at home, but let's face it, the Broncos annually lose a game they have no business losing, and I had a feeling that that would be the one. I think they can beat Baltimore and Pittsburgh, because they protect the QB, and will be strong defensively against the run. It's about matchups, in those cases. Really, I believe that the Broncos can beat any team on their schedule if they execute, and consistently do the things you need to do to win football games.

I had the Broncos going to 4-0, (in case anybody claims nobody did), before losing both (Sunday) to the Patriots and next Monday night to the Chargers. They beat the Patriots, and I am pretty sure they'll beat the Chargers too, to move to 6-0. I also don't think there is any way they lose to the Raiders, with the consistent preparation and focus they've shown, and Oakland's extreme awfulness. So, even the most optimistic reasonable guy you know may have been underselling this team.

I am not much of a stats guy, but are you ready for an unbelievable one? In five weeks, the Broncos have made zero personnel moves. For all you hear about how much "turmoil" surrounded this team in the offseason, there has been absolutely none in the regular season. Of course, having had no major injuries helps, but it's really indicative of the quality of the team's personnel plan. There was no area where the staff thought incorrectly that the personnel would be good enough. It's good enough everywhere.

There is a lot of reason to really like this team. When the score was 10-0 in the first quarter, my father (Ed) called me, like he does when things aren't going that well for the Broncos. This is the conversation, practically word-for-word.

Ed: What's going on with your boys?

Ted: (A little annoyed.) Nothing, they had a good drive, but missed a field goal, and then they fumbled. Then they held the Patriots to a field goal despite really favorable field position. I'm not worried about it yet. These things happen.

Ed: I don't know...

Ted: This team has shown an ability to be resilient, and make adjustments. I think they'll hang in there, and be okay. (More annoyed, because the commercial was ending, and the game was restarting.) They just (bleeped) up a couple times, it's not the end of the world.

Ed: We'll see....

Ted: Yes, we will. I have to go, so I can pay attention.

Ed: Okay, when you write your analysis, you should mention that your expert father thinks they played like (bleep) because of those ugly uniforms.

Like me, my father is a former United States sailor (a Chief Nuke Machinist Mate), and we tend to employ some sailors' vocabulary when we speak. (In the interest of authenticity, I thought everybody should know that.)

I think back to the last few years, and there is a striking difference with this team. I think of 2005, and the Broncos hardly ever trailed in that season. Jake Plummer was made to play low-risk football, the defense was solid, and the Broncos ran the ball very well. If the plan was executed, the Broncos were going to win. Once it wasn't, in the AFC Championship Game, there was no coming back.

Between 2006-2008, the team was very mistake-prone, on both offense and defense (after the first 6 games of 2006). Generally, you'd have the feeling that if a player or unit made a mistake, that a long day of repeat mistakes would be sure to follow. Think of all the times Jay Cutler played the team out of games, or the defense took a holiday from tackling (or both happened in the same game, like the early season Chiefs game last season). There was always a puncher's chance, but you felt like every mistake was the killer.

I have a tremendous amount of faith in this team's ability to overcome mistakes. In the short amount of time they've been together, I've seen them do it a lot of times. It's not like they're making a lot of mistakes, but they show the ability to settle down and re-focus, no matter what happens. The 2008 Broncos would have gotten blown out today, no question about it. This team hangs in there, gets back to playing solid football, and gets in position to win in the end. It happened against Cincinnati, it happened against Dallas, and it happened again today. (Of course, there never was one second where the Browns or Raiders had an apparent chance, so there was no particular need to hang in there in those games.)

Check out this tweet from Darrell Reid, from Sunday night:

@Footz95: Bronco Fans Please 4Give Me 4 My Penalty That Almost Cost Us The Game. Luckily Its A Team Sport And My Teammates Overcame That Play. Thank U

That's pure class and accountability, and it's emblematic of this team. There was nothing about how the penalty was kind of ticky-tack, even if it was. He knows the rules, he ran into the guy's leg, and he is accountable for his mistake.

It's a gift to be able to feel like this, and I think only probably Patriots, Steelers, and Colts fans have been able to do so consistently, in recent memory. I think Giants and Saints fans probably can right now. Somehow, our team is going to keep focused, and find a way to be in the game until the final gun. What a great new Broncos fan reality.

2. Information From My Eyes, Patriots at Broncos:

a. The WRs for the Broncos did great work all game on Sunday. They ran a ton of hitches, and really got out of their breaks well on them. They also really caught the ball.

b. Andra Davis and D.J. Williams both missed clean sacks on Tom Brady, on delayed blitzes. It sure would have been nice to have those sacks, at the time.

c. I thought the use of Russ Hochstein as a FB was a nice touch a few times. It's been hit or miss this season, and it hit Sunday.

d. Both Brandon Marshall TDs were emblematic of his improvement as an all-around player. He made plays with his physicality, which he hadn't ever fully harnessed in past years. There was no sideways running Sunday, just good routes and power.

e. That Ben Watson TD was evidently a mistake by D.J. Williams, who from the looks of the rest of the scheme, and Wesley Woodyard's reaction, should have stayed in zone coverage, instead of following the underneath crosser.

f. Maybe Kyle Orton was so fantastic because he read Mark Kiszla's column before the game. Feeling like "one of us" has to go a long way, right?

g. That was a joke, of course, but Orton really did look as good as I have ever seen him. His feet were calm, active, and precise, his decisions were quick and correct, and his throws were consistently on the money. He looked like Tom Brady looks on a good day, and that's no overstatement.

h. I want to see a QB sneak on a short-yardage play one of these days. I am tired of seeing these handoff plays get blown up by quick penetration, usually over Ben Hamilton.

i. WOW, did Josh McDaniels ever flame-spray Mike Priefer and Keith Burns over that Darrell Reid penalty. He had a point. There was no particular need to be halfway rushing that punt, in that situation. Honestly, I am a believer in not trying to block a punt at all, unless there's 6 or more yards to go. That mitigates the risk of running into the kicker.

j. If you remember the second-down play in the 4th quarter, with about 10 minutes to go, where Brady threw deep and the ball was broken up by Brian Dawkins, the real play was made by D.J.Williams, in covering Wes Welker one-on-one. Brady clearly wanted to go there, and it was blanketed. On the next play, Brady did throw to Welker, and Champ Bailey had great coverage. The Broncos did a great job taking Welker away in the second half.

k. Everybody knows I wasn't that high on the Knowshon Moreno pick when it was made, but I have come to really love this player. He is going to be a superstar for years to come. I especially appreciate his skill at picking up the blitz, which is rare for a rookie.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games:

a. I had the Bengals-Ravens game on my fixed screen Sunday, for the duration. The key observation from that game is that I had it slightly wrong a couple weeks ago, when I said that the Ravens were without any glaring weaknesses. Their cornerbacks are below average, and they can be killed outside the numbers. Old friend Domonique Foxworth is a good guy, but an average-at-best player. Fabian Washington isn't even as good as that. Particularly if you can block the Ravens' pressure packages, there is a lot of opportunity for success.

b. It is, however, best to stay out of the middle of the field, with any kind of risky throws. Ed Reed is as great as ever, and we all know about Ray Lewis. Reed made a couple big plays Sunday, stripping Chad Ochocinco on a long gainer before the first half ended, and then also returning an interception for a TD later. The Bengals dominated this game, and Reed and Ray Rice were the Ravens' only real positives, and managed to keep the Ravens in it.

c. Matt Cassel says he wants to find the right "anecdote" to losing. The Chiefs ought to start by drafting a lot more speed, because they're the slowest team in the NFL, ahead of their opponent Sunday, Dallas. The Chiefs are going to have another very high draft pick this year, because they are really horrible. If I were Scott Pioli, I would do everything possible to get below the Top 10, because a third straight very high pick, along with Cassel's contract, is going to really mess up their salary structure, a la Oakland. I would give a top pick away, straight-up, for the 12th pick, in their situation. Bill Polian had it right when he said that you don't get good by picking high in the draft every year. Unless you're taking a can't-miss QB, like Peyton Manning, nobody is worth the money you have to pay out.

d. Speaking of the Chiefs, this has gone mostly under the radar, but they're not playing Derrick Johnson, their best linebacker. He was their best defensive player in 2008, and now he's frozen out for some undisclosed reason. If I were a 40-front team, I'd be calling the Chiefs before the trade deadline next week. I bet he could be had for a 5th-rounder.

e. Have you ever seen that show, Intervention, on A&E? I know I have a pretty male-heavy readership, and it's mostly targeted toward a female demographic, so I ask, rather than assume. Anyway, it's not what I would call uplifting television. There's always some really troubled person, with drugs, or gambling, or compulsive shopping, or whatever. Their family loves them, and wants to help get them on the straight and narrow, but addiction is really hard (my 3-year anniversary of quitting smoking is next Monday, so trust me, I have an idea about addiction).

Anyway, the Jaguars remind me of an addict who is trying to get clean, and tries hard, and does well for a while, and then has a staggering, messy relapse. Jacksonville's addiction is to playing undisciplined and stupid football. The last two weeks, against Houston and Tennessee, the Jags had their act together. Sunday, against Seattle, they relapsed, and got completely embarassed. Rashean Mathis, a good CB, had a horrid game, and got out of position repeatedly. I think Jack Del Rio's days have to be numbered, because his program just isn't getting the team to where they need to be. I'm not picking them in any more games this year, either, unless it's against an obviously terrible team. Sometimes, even though you may love the addict, they won't let themselves be helped, and you have to cut them off.

f. The 49ers are not addicted to undisciplined football, but they sure played like the Jaguars West on Sunday. Watching the Short Cut, I really feel like they lost their composure after Roddy White's 90-yard TD in the second quarter. Nate Clements got beat on that play, and had a tough game overall. The defense was physical, and maintained their run lanes, but didn't tackle well, at all. I expect that Mike Singletary will re-focus his team, and they'll show better in their next game, after their bye. Since they're clearly not built to play from behind, they need to establish early leads.

g. A lot was made of Dre' Bly's idiotic celebration Sunday, but Donnie Avery deserves some scorn too, for dancing after a TD catch, when it made the score 31-10 Vikings, with 6 minutes to go. That's just clown-like. Hand the ball to the Field Judge, and get back to your sideline.

h. Matt Schaub threw a noodle-armed out route Sunday, which Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie took back for the game-winning TD. Even after that, Schaub drove the team the length of the field, before the Cardinals held them on 4th and goal from the 1. The problem with being a zone-blocking team, as we've seen, is that you tend to struggle in short yardage situations, and the Texans really struggle with them.

i. I got called "ignorant" once by our dear friend/Colts blogger BigBlueShoe for saying that Anthony Gonzalez was a below-average starter. I considered it an honor, because I am happy to disagree with anybody. (Evaluation is a function of what I see, not what anybody thinks they know, and by extension, that they think I should "know.") In any case, Gonzalez, who is from 3 towns west of where I live, is going to stuggle to get on the field when he gets healthy. Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon have done fantastic work this season, and they're both better players than Gonzalez. Collie is smooth in his routes, and fundamentally sound, and Garcon is fast and fluid. Gonzalez struggles to get off press coverage, and as Mike Shanahan once said, if you can't get off press coverage, you'll be selling cars before too long.

j. The Steelers defense looks extremely beatable lately, especially if you can pass protect. The Lions did a lot of good stuff offensively Sunday, and lost only because they couldn't contain James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley. Trust me, they're not a terrible team team this season.

k. Josh Johnson looked like an NFL starting QB on Sunday, which is an accomplishment, for your second career start, against a defense like Philadelphia's. His stats were pedestrian (26-50, 240 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT with 5 carries for 40 yards), but he passed the eye test. His throws were mostly accurate and decisive, and he was victimized by quite a few drops, at least 6 or 7.

l. I haven't gotten a great look at Jason Peters yet this regular season, and I have been wanting to. Sunday's game didn't show me much, because Gaines Adams just looks clueless on the field. LDE Jimmy Wilkerson got 3 sacks for the Buccaneers, and lazy analysis would lead me to criticize RT Winston Justice, who I am typically not a big fan of. Thing is, I looked at the plays, and none were particularly bad plays by Justice. One was an overload, where the RG picked up Wilkerson, and on the other two, Donovan McNabb rolled into a decently-blocked Wilkerson.

m. ST&NO favorite Channing Crowder had a fantastic game on Monday Night, and really backed up his smack talk from the spring with Rex Ryan. Another ST&NO favorite, Sean Smith, did not have a particularly great game. He struggled a little with Braylon Edwards, and while he didn't embarass himself, he has looked a lot better in other games. He was still the best CB the Dolphins had, as Vontae Davis and Will Allen both struggled worse.

n. I called this just last Tuesday with Edwards. He got out of Cleveland, and he's going to flourish in New York. He always thought of Cleveland as a non-cosmopolitan place, even to a greater extent than what is really true. (It's medium in its cosmopolitan-ness; well behind the major cities, but well ahead of a place like Jacksonville.) Edwards also felt like Ohio fans secretly hated him because he is a Michigan guy. The enmity between OSU and Michigan people is pretty real, for Big 10 country anyway, but Clevelanders are almost universally Browns fans before they're OSU fans. It's an NFL town, first, no question about it. If Edwards did well for the Browns, he'd have gotten plenty of love here.

My read on Edwards' personality, from living in the same town, is that the fact that he comes from a fairly affluent, two-parent, suburban background works against his ability to be a great player. He knows he has options outside of football. Poor kids need football, and many dedicate themselves fully to it, but I don't think Edwards has ever felt like he needs it. (For an example, there's the famous story of him asking Will Demps how to get into modeling and acting, between plays, during a game with the Texans).

I expect that Edwards will be very good for the Jets, and get himself a good contract extension after this season. New York is the town he wants to be in, and at his best, he can be like Tiki Barber, a guy who is interested in a lot of other stuff, but finally focuses pretty well on football, and has some good years under some tough coaching. Just don't be the person who believes the nonsense about him being a bad player, because he is not one.

n. The Dolphins offensive line is really one-dimensional, because their Tackles, Jake Long and Vernon Carey, severely lack foot quickness. Both guys can really move defenders off the ball in the running game, though. I am a big fan of Justin Smiley at LG; he's a mauler. The Dolphins do well in their wildcat stuff, but I think they should play more with their QB under center, to generate opportunities in the play-action game. It's the only way their QB will ever be able to consistently take a very deep dropback, unless they want to max-protect with a limited pattern.

o. Wow.... two successful fake punts in one first half by the Jets. I don't know if I have ever seen that before. Brad Smith was almost stopped on the second one, but he managed to get away from the tackle.

p. Chad Henne has looked much better than I thought he could play the last two weeks, but I am not sold on some things. For one thing, since when do QBs have lousy, jail-house looking tattoos, or any tattoos at all? It's like when an enlisted guy in the military becomes an officer, and suddenly looks a little different, sporting a bunch of ink. (My buddy who is getting married in Dallas in about 2 weeks is actually one of these.) Anyway, it's weird to see a QB with that going on. As a player, he looked really good, though.

q. Ted Ginn put a pretty humbling move on Darrelle Revis in the 4th quarter Monday Night. When you hear scouts talk about suddenness, Ginn is not a guy who really has it, as opposed to somebody like Percy Harvin, who does. Ginn does, however, have world-class speed once he gets going, and he ran by the outstanding Revis for a go-ahead TD.

r. I usually ignore MNF while I write the bulk of ST&NO on Monday nights, but this Dolphins-Jets game was terrific. Both of these teams are playoff-caliber teams, and only one of them will probably make it.

s. The Packers had a bye week, and signed Mark Tauscher, which was smart. I think he is below-average, (and so is Chad Clifton), but they are a damnsight better than Daryn Colledge and Allen Barbre. If Aaron Rodgers can get sacked only 3-4 times per game, as opposed to 8-9, the Packers would have a better chance to beat good teams. Rodgers does tend to hold the ball too long at times, and I am sure the Packers are working with him on that, as well.

t. There were a lot of lousy games this weekend, which weren't particularly relevant to anything. I didn't bother with them. (That means you, Buffalo-Cleveland and Washington-Carolina.)

4. Between The Lines - Patriots at Broncos

a. The Patriots pass-protected very well in this game, much better than I expected them to. Matt Light and Nick Kaczur really held their own against Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers, and others. The Broncos mostly tried to play coverage, and generally didn't blitz a lot, but the Patriots handled their 3- and 4-man rushes virtually every time. Once Light was injured, and replaced by Sebastian Vollmer, I felt like the Patriots expressly didn't want to have him singled up on anybody, and they got more conservative with their protection calls. Of course, on the key play where Vonnie Holliday sacked and stripped Brady, and Dumervil recovered, that was only a 4-man rush, and Vollmer was the victim. The Patriots won this battle on volume, but he Broncos got the biggest play.

b. The Broncos also were outstanding in protection. Orton was never significantly pressured during the game, and the two sacks he took were both coverage sacks, delivered by LBs Rob Ninkovich and Tully Banta-Cain. Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris were outstanding as usual. Although Clady did have Banta-Cain on his sack, it's hard to call the play Ryan's fault. Pressure up the middle forced Orton to step backwards, into the area where Clady had ridden Banta-Cain. Sometimes you take a hit for doing your job right. The interior was strong in protection too, especially Chris Kuper. He does a great job anchoring against power rushers. The Broncos were terrific in this area, and won it going away.

c. The Patriots seemed to want to run the ball at Ryan McBean and Mario Haggan, and had a bit of success at it early with Sammy Morris. After that, they seemed to get away from that plan, only running much from shotgun looks. The Broncos defensive line was up to the task, consistently holding the line of scrimmage, as they have in all five games. Noteworthy performances were turned in by Ronald Fields, Le Kevin Smith, and Kenny Peterson, in addition to McBean. These big guys just continue to hold up. Logan Mankins was tough for the Patriots, and Dan Koppen was steady and crafty. Kaczur had a couple nice early blocks on the opening possession too. This battle was pretty even, in the final analysis.

d. Vince Wilfork was the best all-around player on the field on Sunday, and he couldn't be blocked. If the Patriots don't pay him, I'll be shocked, but there are actually rumblings that they may not. The rest of the Patriots defensive line got pushed around in the running game. The Broncos blockers were terrific in opening up holes for Knowshon Moreno and LaMont Jordan. Clady, Harris, and Kuper were especially noteworthy for their efforts in the running game. Wilfork did make a key stop on third-and-short, and blew up Hamilton on the play. Moreno's 4.2 yard average was a lot better than teams usually get from the Patriots. This is a win for the Broncos.

e. Remember a year ago, when the Patriots physically dominated the Broncos on both lines? That did not happen Sunday. The matchup was pretty even, with a slight edge going to the Broncos. This was very important to the final outcome of the game, as always.

(I am scrapping the BTL feature for another game. I am pretty overloaded lately, and I need to save the 90 minutes per week. It seemed like the best place to cut from. Sorry for anybody who will miss it.)

5. Weird comment from Pat Kirwan on NFL.com:

5. Things I didn't like

When the visiting Patriots lost the coin toss in overtime and the Broncos drove the field and kicked a winning field goal, it left me wanting more than that to decide a winner. Wouldn't it have been great if, after Denver's field goal, Tom Brady had one drive to score a touchdown?

Is Kirwan saying that Brady should get even more special treatment, because he's Brady, or is he saying that the NFL should allow both teams to get the ball at least once in overtime, as a rule for all teams? I typically like Kirwan's work, but this has me pretty confused.

And for the record, I don't think it would have been great if Brady had one drive to score a touchdown. To me, moving down the field after winning the toss, and kicking a winning FG is legitimate. I also think the Broncos play-calling would have been a bit different, once Knowshon Moreno got them inside the 30, if they felt like they really needed to play for a TD.

6. Big up Lindsay Jones of the Denver Post, for reminding us, via Twitter, of somebody who hasn't come forth with their mea culpa yet. I'm looking at you, Rick Reilly, purveyor of puff pieces.

Actually, Reilly's words were more mean-spirited than anybody's, so he really owes Josh McDaniels an apology.

@DenverBroncos : Deadspin compiles all the not-so-nice things Rick Reilly wrote about McDaniels last spring. Pretty interesting. http://deadspin.com/5379838/delighting-in-rick-reillys-massively-wrong-broncos-predictions

I don't normally read Deadspin, but nice work by Tommy Creggs here. Some interesting reminders:

Reilly on April 3rd: "And none of it would've happened without McDaniels' ham-handed style and his Macy's-balloon ego. I have a buddy who honestly believes McDaniels thinks this is fantasy football; that Pat Bowlen gave him a whole team to play with and screw over in his own image and what the hell, if his moves don't work out, his league has a special "mulligan" rule and he can start over. Only there's no "oops" rule in the NFL. Years from now, the Cutler Catastrophe will go down as the dumbest thing in Boy Blunder's very short coaching career. By then, perhaps he will be your waiter at Olive Garden."

That was right after the Cutler trade. Nice, huh? Try this one out:

Reilly on April 29th: "To repeat: Boy Blunder used a [first-round pick] to take a second. And if the Broncos are going to be as lame as I think they're going to be-4-12 perhaps-that first-round pick will be very high. McDaniels is the worst combination of things: Terribly naïve and doubly confident. Bronco fans, you're screwed."

And one more pearl;

Reilly on September 29th: "You can't just bolt your team because you think it's going to suck. (Which the Broncos are. There is no debating that. They are going to lose more than France. Just because you worked under Bill Belichick and you wear your sweatshirt like Bill Belichick does not mean you are Bill Belichick.)"

I would have been glad to debate Reilly on September 29th, or any other day. And if Josh McDaniels was my waiter at Olive Garden, I'd tip him pretty well, because I tip well, and because I bet the service would be outstanding.

I mean, like they say on ESPN, C'mon Man! This drivel was worse than what came from any of the serious-ish reporters, right? Your garden-variety John Clayton, Peter King, or Don Banks were smug and disconnected from reality, but it wasn't personal. With Reilly, this was clearly PERSONAL. Where are you at, Rick? Being a Denver guy, I suspect you'll see this, or at least hear about it, from somebody who does. Ted Bartlett from MileHighReport.com wants to know where you're at with this today, and is directly, publicly asking, on behalf of the thousands who realize how wrong you were, and think we have a great Head Coach.

Hell, if I find out that Chad Henne's tattoo is actually beautifully and tastefully done, and I had it all wrong, you can bet that I'll man up to it publicly. Same goes for anything I ever say, in all seriousness. Maybe accountability to readers is a blogger thing, I don't know.

7. Retired for John Elway

8. So, there's a hellaciously stupid line of thought that's circulating throughout the punditry (as always, meant negatively.) It seems that there are two kinds of people: those who dichotomize, and those who don't. The punditry tends to dichotomize, and there are two kinds of coaches right now. Hot Coordinators (including some retreads like Mike Nolan, Gregg Williams, and Mike Mularkey), and Super Bowl Winning Retreads. And lemme tell you, nobody wants a Retread. Why not? Because they're Retreads, stupid!

My favorite contrarian Andrew Perloff tells us so in his crack column Against The Grain: ("A weekly NFL column that heads in the opposite direction of your average pro football analysis." Just in case you were wondering....)

3. The NFL information men are hot on the trail of finding out where former Super Bowl-winning coaches like Mike Shanahan, Mike Holmgren and Bill Cowher will end up. But shouldn't we be asking ourselves if those coaches are the right hires for franchises like Washington, Dallas and Carolina? A retread coach with a ring is still just a retread. Duplicating that kind of success is still a longshot in the NFL. Some of the organization problems within those teams would cause just as big a headache for a proven winner.

Perloff has a point about the organization problems, but calling somebody a retread, and assuming that they suddenly can't coach is asinine. Analysts who don't know how to analyze always look for correlation, and assume causation, where there often is none.

Some teams, like the Redskins and Cowboys, will almost certainly make big-splash hires. Some, like the Bills and Jaguars, will be cost conscious, and probably hire a coordinator. Some, like the Panthers, could go either way. You can believe that whatever is deemed to be the trend du jour, (probably hiring coordinators), the other path will be criticized. Such is life with the dichotomizing punditry.

9. Another fun Ted Bartlett prognostication from the preseason:

The Broncos are going to have the best defense in the AFC West.

I guess I am just hot this year. :)

That's all I have for this week. Have a great Tuesday, and beyond, and we'll see you Saturday for Lighting Up The Scoreboard, even as I will be at Notre Dame this weekend for their game against USC. It will be my first time seeing Touchdown Jesus, so we'll see what that does for me as a guy who grew up Catholic. Maybe I will tweet from the game. Follow me at @TedBartlett905. Thanks for reading, and go Broncos!!!

How To Beat The New England Patriots

Bruce Raffel — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 14:09:05 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

2 months ago: Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Derrick Mason celebrates his touchdown with teammate Mark Clayton in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns in Baltimore, Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009. Baltimore won 34-3. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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This week's matchup does not allow the readers to respond with what they said about last week's game against the Cleveland Browns, where many thought all the Baltimore Ravens needed to do was just show up. While that might have ended up true last week, it certainly won't be enough to beat the Patriots in their home crib this Sunday.

However, if the Ravens team that played last week shows up for this week's game and plays the same way, the Ravens can absolutely leave Gillette Stadium with an impressive victory and make a major statement about their legitimate claim as one of the best teams in the NFL so far this year.

(More on "How To Beat The New England Patriots" after the 'Jump')

Both teams are highly rated and thought to be legitimate playoff contenders this year after finishing 11-5 in the 2008 regular season, although the Pats missed out on the post season. Remember, these are the New England Patriots that went 16-0 in the regular season only two years ago. However, this is not the same Patriots squad that is playing now as a lot has transpired in their ranks that have left a dent their armor this year. QB Tom Brady is back after missing nearly all of the 2009 season with a knee injury, although he just doesn't seem to be completely healthy based on his missing targets that he normally was a lock to hit. The Pats traded DT Richard Seymour to Oakland for the Raiders first round draft pick and while that was a great trade for New England, it left a hole in their trenches. Combined with the fact that NT Vince Wilfork may miss Sunday's game puts the Ravens in position to enjoy a huge advantage in the trenches on offense. The LB corps of the Pats has been hit hard with the retirement of Tedy Bruschi and the injury to Jerod Mayo, and without them the front seven's ability to slow down the Ravens rushing attack and put pressure on the QB is greatly diminished.

These issues lead me to believe that the Ravens offense will be able to move the ball and put points on the board against the Patriots defense. But in order to win this game, the key will be whether or not the Ravens defense can limit the New England offense enough to prevent them from scoring more than we do. The Ravens defense is basically the same, if not better than the one that almost upset the Pats in that classic 2007 game during their undefeated regular season (that game is on the NFL Network tonight). The Ravens were horrible that year and still almost pulled off the upset. If we can come close to playing with that same fervor, then we will have a shot to win in New England, where the Pats have the NFL's best home record since the 2000 season, just ahead of the Indianapolis Colts and our Baltimore Ravens.

Don't expect the Patriots running game to have any more success against the Ravens as the rest of the league has had this season, much less for the past 38 games where no one player has rushed for over 100 yards against this defense. Limiting Tom Brady and the Pats passing attack will obviously be the key to this game. Keep Randy Moss out of the end zone and do not let TE Ben Watson get behind our safeties and we should be fine. Wes Welker should play but he is not the TD threat that the other two are. Welker can move the chains though, and is the speed threat across the middle and has great hands. Most likely, I see the Ravens fastest DB, Fabian Washington on Welker and Domonique Foxworth covering Moss, with help from Ed Reed in back of him. Dawan Landry should match up against Watson, unless we are in a nickel, dime or dollar packages with more DB's out there to provide additional coverage. Of course, turnovers could play a huge part in deciding this game, as both teams have been opportunistic on defense in thus category.

I like the Ravens chances and while this is by far our toughest game so far, we came through with a tough road victory earlier this season against the San Diego Chargers, which was predicted by many to be a road loss for the Ravens. At the same time, in New England's toughest game so far, they failed to beat the New York Jets on the road, against the Ravens former defensive coordinator, whose defensive gameplan should be repeated by the Ravens this Sunday. If Baltimore executes like they have so far this season, there is no reason that we can't outmuscle the Patriots and emerge from week four still undefeated and remain atop the AFC North.