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Broncos Thoughts and Musings - Indy Week

Emmett Smith — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:38:06 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

5 days ago: Denver Broncos tight end Daniel Graham catches a short pass before running for a touchdown during the first quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009 in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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There's nothing quite like back-to-back wins to put a shine into the work in the film room. The glow of the past two wins hasn't faded at all, but the upcoming contest against the Indianapolis Colts is starting to loom large. Before we get into our matchups and needs against the next foe, let's take some time to look back over what we've accomplished. Special teams, the nose tackle position and even raiderology are on today's menu. Let the feasting begin!

The Film Room I - KC Autopsy

A moment of silence for a team that has passed away, out of contention for the season and fighting for respect. It's a tough time to be a Chiefs fans, and I want to thank them for a week of intelligent football talk and good-spirited fun. Nice guys, over at Arrowhead Pride. But the nice guy's team, in this case, is finishing near last (if they don't awaken right now. You couldn't miss that on the tape.

I had mentioned that the game this past weekend, like most games, would come down to how Denver played in the trenches. The Broncos responded with a solid performance by the O-Line, prying open gaping holes more than large enough to pass a running back through. When Ryan Harris stepped out in the early second quarter and Tyler Polumbus replaced him, I wondered for a brief moment if we were seeing a very bad thing but there was no dropoff that I saw. Polumbus seems to have stepped up his game, as has Russ Hochstein. Both improvements are timely - and much needed.

Mistakes - Orton had an uncharacteristically bad red-zone play on the first drive, but he moved them well on the next drive. He was blindsided twice and lost the ball, but let's be real - if the defensive player hits the arm right, every QB loses those. Over his career Orton hasn't tended to that issue, so I'm not worried. I want to see those blindside hits stop, though. Orton was 'burping the baby again, an old and bad habit, but the O-Line doesn't get off scot-free, either. They bear some responsibility for the sacks and the one fumble. They really stepped up when they had to though, and that was the name of the game. They let KC get to the one and held them to a FG. INTs, negative plays, pressure and domination go a long way. They took us to an eighth win.

I've wondered about the progress of Richard Quinn of late mostly because I hadn't had the time to break down the ST work as well as I should. That's being fixed, and the guys on Upon Further Review have been kind enough to help me out. As I result, I've been seeing a lot of good things with Quinn and I'm pleased that he singlehandedly made a huge play on the faked punt. KC must have assumed that since others have caught the Broncos with those kind of plays, it would work again. Here's what Josh McDaniels had to say,

They went to a gadget-type formation and I know that there was a guy leaking out the other way and they had an opportunity to get that ball out there but TE Richard (Quinn) made a heck of a play. I don't know what happens if the ball gets thrown but it probably wouldn't have been too good for us. Whenever you break the formation and have a gadget-type play, we were prepared and we split out with them but you are never sure who they are trying to pick for or who they are trying to spring free. That was a big play in the game because we obviously took possession of the football in their territory.

It wasn't the only big play, either. The Broncos were unstoppable in the running game and despite some errors, still used the pass to score 2 TDs, which would have been enough by itself. The game was over when Cassel's QB rating hit 3.1. There isn't a mercy rule. Perhaps there should be. This was a good reminder of that fact.

The Broncos won despite some sloppy play that won't work in the upcoming weeks. In the final analysis, the Broncos committed too many errors and they can't win against the best if they do. But still, you get a sense of how the team can play, and there is a heck of a team in here. You have to balance the bad with the fact that we're seeing a lot of things getting fixed in the new systems the team has learned. When I go back to what I wanted to see from the team this year, that was at the top of the list. Nice work, guys.

Film Room II - The Special Teams

The emphasis on this week's review was the play of the Broncos' special teams this season. Everyone is in agreement that the STs can play better than they did in the first 10-12 weeks of the season. While there are now some obvious bright spots (David Bruton, Spencer Larsen, Darrell Reid, Darcel McBath), I felt that a major review might be in order. It was a great week to feel that way - wow, what a performance on special teams the Broncos put in place. Huge kudos to MHR favorite Spencer Larsen, who notched a huge 4 special teams tackles and to Darrell Reid, who trailed him with 3. Great job on ST! Eddie Royal looked comfortable and Mitch Berger was a monster - again. I don't know how he avoided the block on that one punt, but I was impressed. Berger has no history of frequently blocked punts; so despite his slower motion, he hasn't let it hurt the team.

How was our kicking game against KC? Take a look:

Extra Points Made-Attempts 5-5
Field Goals Made-Attempts 3-3
Red Zone Efficiency 4-6-67%
Goal-to-go efficiency 2-2-100%

That's the kind of efficient red-zone and ST play that wins games.

Some things are obvious. Royal hasn't had enough room to run on punt returns, mostly due to our tendency to let the offenses get into the 40/40 yard-line range, which lets the teams either punt into the coffin corner or just create a touchback, nullifying Eddie's chances of getting in a good runback. They got over that pattern during the past two games and had two wins. Are they connected? You decide. I'm going to vote yes.

Two names that I wanted to look more closely at this week were Richard Quinn and Russ Hochstein. I recalled Hochstein making a couple of serious errors on ST while we were losing and while I'd heard good things about Quinn's ST work, I hadn't caught him on film enough to develop an opinion one way or the other. that obviously changed in KC - his play on the fake punt was perfect and his blocking on kick returns was excellent as well. Nice to see!

The balance of veterans like Mario Haggan, Champ Bailey, Darrell Reid and Andre' Goodman with younger players such as Bruton, Larsen and McBath seems to have found an area of comfort. Lanes are being filled, discipline has improved, tackling is much better and, just as importantly, we haven't been pinning Royal back in coffin country. This is the first time I've seen us playing the way we need to on special teams in a long time. I can only hope it continues.

Safety in Numbers: It's also obvious that David Bruton was a heck of a 4th-round pickup and that Darcel McBath was a great investment. Over the next 5 years, with those two and Josh Barrett, we're in good shape at safety. There was pre-draft talk of moving McBath to CB if certain teams drafted him - McBath can cover very well and can tackle, too. Denver will keep him at safety, though, and for good reason. He won't replace Renaldo Hill anytime soon, but I love that our chances are that good at when we're covering folks.

The response to the recent rise in short-passing offenses (much like our own) has been a switch to fast, coverage safeties. I believe that McBath can be smoothly moved into the slot currently well-occupied by Renaldo Hill when Hill finally slows. Keep in mind that Hill, too, was a CB/S tweener who played CB during his first 4 years in the NFL. McBath seems to be very much in the same mold - he's also bright, like Hill, and was a team leader in college.

We can also go with two smart, effective covering safeties, and although I will miss Dawk's aggression and leadership when the time comes, Hill is an excellent leader and as mentioned, McBath was also a captain in his own right. I believe that David Bruton has the power to later fill many of B-Dawk's roles, although few will ever do so as well. Bruton was also a defensive captain, a pattern in McDaniels' pickups. Finally, Barrett's ability to cover the best TEs one-on-one and to interchange with Wesley Woodyard when needed is a nickel option that few teams can match. Although everyone, myself included, would love to see an Eric Berry on our team, we can establish safety as a lower-cost, high-return group at any point. The fact that all three have done good things on ST makes me even happier - that's a seventh of the game that we need to win, week in and week out. We're finally starting to win at it with a good mix of veterans and younger players. No surprise, then, that we're back to winning.

By the way, we've scored exactly 70 points in the past two games. Things have changed, and for the better. We still need to improve on our mistakes, but I like the direction things are going in.

raiderology

If I'm Al Davis, which is unlikely in the extreme, I'm having a contract meeting with Bruce Gradkowski's agent tomorrow. Gradkowski is on a one-year (2009) contract for $535,000, and in 2010 becomes a restricted free agent. That is one tough, talented guy and the raiders should get a clue: He's a good option right now and a good backup in the future. When's the last time they had a guy come on and win them games? It's ironic that he's the polar opposite of JaMarcus Russell - smaller and lighter, only 6'1" and 220 lbs, but he's smart, tenacious and can play this game. You don't need to waste a pick in the 1st round - you've got your QB in-house for this year and even next year if you want to make the effort to rebuild the team. The young man earned it. Consider his game against PITT:

Att/Comp Yds YPA TD INT QB Rating
20/33 308 9.3 3 0 121.8

Those are numbers that work for me. He has accuracy issues, no question, and his arm strength isn't what the team would like. I don't think that he's a long-term answer - he's just a heck of a lot better answer than Russell and they can keep him on as a backup when they find someone better. The Raiders love the vertical game too much to have a starting QB that doesn't have the arm for the long ball, but they still need one that has some common sense and drive. Mark Twain mentioned that the problem with common sense is that it ain't. That's been Problem 1 in raiderville for a long time and Russell is a perfect example of why. Right now, Gradkowski is a step up.

The raiders have some good running backs in Justin Fargas and Michael Bush. Darren McFadden fumbles too much, has always had issues with his upright style and injuries; he may mature well, but hasn't shown that consistently yet - so I don't count him. They have a fine young TE in Zach Miller, too. Their receiving corp will be mediocre or worse until they catch onto the fact that running fast is of no use if you can't catch the danged ball. They need a couple of possession receivers badly, preferably veterans who don't need to be bottle-fed. They also need to patch a couple of holes in the O-Line, as in much of it. If they can put together a couple of drafts that actually match their team needs, fine, then they can drop big dollars on a QB. Until then? Gradkowski is fine.

This is one example of how a person's feelings on the theory of team building color their approach to decision-making. I personally believe that you need an offensive line more than any other single factor in football. To me, there's no point in arguing about how to win a Super Bowl until you at least have a team that can contend for their division and I think that you start that with the O-Line and move on from there. The raiders seem to do everything backwards, so this is no shock, but they can buy a few wins for relatively few bucks with Gradkowski and they need to develop a longterm plan for a change.

Speaking of the dead, I found it interesting last week when Nnamdi Asomugha went on record as being against the moribund system that Al Davis has in place of not making defensive adjustments for other teams' systems. Davis stills lives and refuses to die on the theory that you play your own system come drought or flood and you ignore what other teams are doing. We all know how that's been working for Oakland. Since this is a team that we play again soon, I'm content to watch them ignore reality with aplomb, but it's interesting when your best player calls out your system in the media. In other cases, I think that kind of thing smacks of ego, but in this case, it smacks of a legitimate cry for help. One that will be ignored, though, like all the rest.

Concussions (briefly) Continued

The NFL is considering a rule change that involves the running back position. The idea behind it is to prevent the RB from using his head as a battering ram, a style of running that has become increasingly common. Running backs like this maneuver because it permits them to deliver a blow rather than just take them.

I'm torn on this. I'm greatly encouraged by the new guidelines for dealing with concussions, and I support rule changes that will reduce the number of head injuries and simply 'blows to the head', which we now understand to be equally bad or even worse, over the course of time. I recognize the the running backs have a legitimate point regarding this approach - they take so much punishment that it seems harsh to take away one of their few options in return.

However -- running in that fashion is going to increase the number of blows to the head that the athlete experiences. It's really that simple. Research has shown a link between frequent blows to the head, even if they do not induce a concussion per se, and increased brain damage. That's a huge problem - the cumulative effects of those blows are increasing the number of retired players who are experiencing loss of their cognitive faculties. What number of yards makes up for that?

From my admittedly-biased position as a retired doc, I'm in favor of this rule change. Using your head to hit people isn't, well, using your head. I'd like to see alternative techniques taught and coached. I'd like to see an end to the kind of problems that hits like Adrian Peterson's created when he used his head to smash into Detroit safety Louis Delmas. By bending down to where his head was only a foot or so from the ground, Peterson smashed his helmet into Delmas' helmet as Delmas came in to tackle him. It was deliberate, and damaging to both men, if more so to Delmas; the hit left Delmas on the ground. I also would like to see it prohibited to use the head to deliver any kind of hit by any player and would support considering a change in the way that tackling is taught. These changes will not greatly change the way the game is played - just how the players are taught.

I understand that many fans will think that if you change the way the game is taught, it's "not really football" anymore. I'm sympathetic, but let's be real here - no amount of money is worth becoming a walking vegetable in your later years. Demanding that players be willing to trade their own abilities in consciousness for the experience of the NFL is, frankly, barbaric. Yes, it's a tough sport. Yes, it's impossible to prevent all injuries and you shouldn't try. However - dropping some of the gladiatorial fervor in the name of living a normal life beyond football isn't an unreasonable approach. We shouldn't ask anyone to be willing to increase their chances of living with brain trauma just for the chance to be a professional football player -- or for any other sport's sake. I hope that we, as a culture, are willing to move beyond that kind of lower-consciousness belief.

QBs and Ratings

While we're considering the media, consider this from Kerry Byrne at si.com:

16.13 yards per attempt -- This is the number that truly leaps off the stat sheet to those who understand the Cold, Hard Football Facts.

Passing yards per attempt is probably the single greatest individual statistical indicator of success in football, and maybe in all of sports. Teams that win the passing yards per attempt battle win nearly 75 percent of the time and the great quarterbacks almost always have high averages per attempt, from Bart Starr and Johnny Unitas to the greatest winner of all, Otto Graham, whose career average of 8.63 YPA is the best in history. to

So, when you see a number like 16.1 YPA, it pays to investigate a little further. Turns out Brees is just the fifth player since 1960 to average more than 16 yards per pass attempt in a game (min. 20 attempts).

It brings up an interesting point: Many teams - most, in fact - have moved to a NE-style offense with an emphasis on the short pass. That doesn't exclude throwing deep, but it does mean that teams will see more of the short passing game, which will tend to skew that number in the statistics. Since many of the offenses that emphasize the short pass use it much as teams used to use the ground game -- picking up 2-8 years at a time, keeping the clock moving and controlling the ball -- you will see the numbers on yards per attempt lessening. It's still true, however, that yards per attempt can be increased by yards after the catch, and that's an area where the Saints have excelled.

The Broncos are starting to throw deeper passes more often, and experience and comfort level between Brandon Marshall and Kyle Orton is a big factor there. It paid off again, and was that Brandon throwing his TD ball to McDaniels? Nice...so much for Brandon leaving. He likes to talk, but they will open the checkbook to keep him (and Doom).

How many more longer passes? It isn't a vertical game onslaught, but this is from the list of the Broncos top-10 long plays each week:

49 4 3-6-DEN 24 (14:08) K.Orton pass short left to B.Marshall pushed ob at KC 27 for 49 yards (J.McGraw).
19 4 1-10-KC 41 (11:26) K.Orton pass deep left to T.Scheffler to KC 22 for 19 yards (C.Mays).
18 1 1-10-DEN 33 (14:55) K.Orton pass short left to E.Royal to KC 49 for 18 yards (B.Flowers).
17 2 2-6-50 (10:18) C.Buckhalter left tackle to KC 33 for 17 yards (M.Vrabel).

Orton added three plays for 14 yards, two to Marshall, one to Royal. The mid-range game is starting to work better and the running game was money all day long. Then there's the kind of rushing dominance that I hadn't seen in too long. The combination gives us a puncher's chance against anyone, if we can control the line of scrimmage.

Final Note: NTs come Full Circle

Pat Kirwan of NFL.com posted this last week:

3-4 nose tackles are scarce

Any team that plays a 3-4 defense knows that success starts up front with a massive nose tackle that plays over the center's head and forces double teams. In the NFL, 3-4 nose tackles are an endangered species. The Chargers lost Jamal Williams and somehow keep winning. The Jets have dropped three of four games since Kris Jenkins went down. Jason Ferguson of the Dolphins just found he is heading to IR, which leaves Paul Soliai to replace him. All three teams have playoff aspirations, but the lack of a quality nose tackle hurts their chances. So far, the Chargers have adjusted best.

He brings up an interesting point. Increasingly, we are seeing smaller NTs coming in and being effective through leverage and athletic ability -- as well as getting penetration. While it is essential that the NT be able to take up 2 or more blockers, it's not really important that he weight 365 lbs. when doing so. The ability to move other people, great technique and an explosive first step are even more important than size.

Since we are now at 12 teams using the 3-4 in some form full-time and many others that use some hybrid variation at least part of the time, we're not going to necessarily see every team moving to the traditional kind of huge player at NT. Players with skill, stamina and unusual strength and/or leverage as well as a scale-tipping 340 lbs will probably continue to be relatively rare. But as Marcus Thomas (314) has shown in Denver when playing behind Ron Fields (314), as the combination of Travis Johnson (311) and Ogemdi Nwagbuo (303) have shown in San Diego since their massive NT, Jamal Williams (348), went on IR and as Jay Ratliff (304) has shown in Dallas, there is more to the NT position than sheer size. Jason Ferguson comes in at 305, no larger than many 40-front defensive tackles. There's a pattern here.

One of the advantages that Denver has shown this season is that Ron Fields is obviously as good as the commentators who called him a steal believed. Even better, Marcus has shown considerable ability in coming in and handling the NT duties when Fields sits down. Thomas is a serious penetrator who obviously plays by relishing of the chance to compete at this level. If Chris Baker (329) develops this off-season, we may get to see Baker or Thomas showing us their skills at DE - personally, I'd love to see Marcus handling that position, but right now he's the second-best option at NT and a very close second at that. He is also said to really enjoy the position, so perhaps he stays there. An eventual flexible rotation that uses Fields, Thomas and Baker at NT, with Baker or Thomas rotating at DE at times isn't beyond possibility, either. That would be flexible and versatile, hallmarks of the amoeba approach.

Regardless of which one slides over (or whether they do - I'm suggesting an option, not predicting that we'll use it), the fact that we have some solid options in the pipeline at DL speaks well to the way the team will play next season. It also frees up a position in the draft, which always is a comfort. What I'm seeing is that we don't need a NT, thanks to good player evaluation last offseason.

Taming the Colts?

How will we handle Indy? Tough question, since they look like the cream of the league to me right now. If we do, we will do it much as we did against KC, even though Indy is so much better. We need for the running game to keep Peyton Manning off the field. It's the only real way to limit him - he's just too good. We need our coverage to be what it's been the past two weeks - or even better. I don't know if even Champ and Goodman can shut down Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and friends, but for us to have a good chance, they will have to. It will be up to Ryan Clady and the offensive line to handle Dwight Feeney. Giving Orton time to throw and the right holes to our newly-empowered running game gives us the best chance. We will be mixing the zone blocking and gap blocking again - over the past two games, that has really begun to gel, right on time for a run at the wild-card slot.

We can't keep committing unforced errors. I suspect that our game will hinge on that -- too many players have contributed cognitive flatulence by taking stupid penalties this season. If we beat ourselves, we're toast. We need to show that we can play like a playoff team and make them beat us. Indy is a predator - always ready to pounce on the weaknesses a team manifests. We're moving two time zones and Indy is murder at home.

It's our toughest game of the year. I look forward to seeing where we measure up.

Go Broncos!

5 Questions: Patriots @ Dolphins

MaPatsFan — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 17:09:41 -0000

More photos » by Hans Deryk - AP

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Moving on. Divisional game. Miami Dolphins at home. That's all that matters right now. Just as our favorite team and players are doing, it's time to stop mourning and start figuring out how we can make this a W. I'm not simply being nice when I way Miami gives New England trouble. More than any other division rival, they seem to know us pretty well and know our tendencies. However, in the last 5 games, we're 4-1 against the Fins and with Tom Brady under center, 3-0. That being said, Miami has managed an impressive 3rd in yards per game rushing...and that's WITHOUT Ronnie Brown. I also believe Head Coach Tony Sparano has been burning the midnight oil watching game film from our Saints matchup.

But on to the Dolphins. As is our custom, Head Blogger Matty I of The Phinsider and I exchanged questions on our upcoming matchup. Matty offered some excellent insight into how his team is doing this year and how some of the young guys have progressed.

Read on after the jump...

What impact has Ronnie Brown's absence had on the Dolphins? Can you think of any situations where his presence might've swung a game in your favor?

Well the Dolphins have only played two full games since Brown went down with his foot injury. In those two games, the Dolphins are 1-1. But I'll admit I can't help but think that if Ronnie was still healthy, the Dolphins wouldn't have lost to Buffalo last week.

Why? First off all, the 'Wildcat' really lacks any teeth without Brown. Ricky Williams is a talented back and all - but he's not nearly as good as the 'Wildcat' triggerman as Ronnie is. Truth be told, Brown is the 'Wildcat.' Secondly, I get the feeling that offensive coordinator Dan Henning doesn't attempt that ridiculous 'Wildcat' pass on first and goal from the three yard line against Buffalo on their first drive of the game last week - which resulted in an interception, of course. If Brown was healthy and the 'Wildcat' was as effective as usual, I think they decide to just pound it in. Also, if they were planning on throwing it there out of the 'Wildcat,' at least it would have been Ronnie - who has experience and some success throwing the football - rather than Ricky. In fact, Ronnie might decide to not even make the throw after seeing how the defense reacts. Ricky, on the other hand, doesn't have the experience and tried to force it in.

Most importantly, though, is how I think too much of the load is falling on Ricky's shoulders. The Dolphins got away from running the ball in the second half. And I can't help but think that if the Dolphins had a healthy Brown to go with Ricky, Dan Henning wouldn't have gotten away from the running game.

The bottom line is simple: Ronnie Brown was this offense's best player. And they aren't the same offense without him.

The Dolphins are #3 in rushing yards per game. Tell us about some of the guys who have stepped up in Brown's absence.

Well since Brown went down, it's mainly been Ricky Williams as the guy who has stepped up. Beginning with the game against Tampa Bay three weeks ago, Ricky has three consecutive 100 yard rushing games. He had just one all of last season. In fact, he hasn't had a run of 100 yard games like this since November of 2003. Dolphin fans everywhere just hope that he can keep it up as the increased workload takes its toll on him.

The other player who has stepped up - and who will probably see more carries on Sunday than he ever has - is running back Lex Hilliard. Hilliard is a second year player (spent '08 on practice squad) out of Montana who is a big, physical runner with lots of power. And he got his first career carry just two weeks ago against the Panthers. It was a 3rd & 16 and Hilliard ran up the middle, bouncing off defenders, for 18 yards and a first down. But in his two weeks of experience, he has just 9 carries for 46 yards. The coaches, I'm sure, just wanted to ease him into the role. Keep in mind that Hilliard is this team's fourth running back and just narrowly made the cut out of training camp. But injuries to Brown and to third running back Patrick Cobbs has thrust Hilliard into a bigger role. So far, he's looked promising in limited action. But I think he'll see a good 7 to 10 carries on Sunday - his biggest test yet.

Now that Jason Taylor has been around for a while, do you feel like he's been able to make significant contributions on the field or do you feel he's more valuable as a veteran locker room guy?

It's hard to know for sure how much of an impact in the locker room Jason Taylor has had this year. Keep in mind that this is a team that is not short on locker room leaders, especially on defense (Jason Ferguson and Joey Porter, for example). But it says a lot that Taylor was voted one of the team's captains back in the preseason by his teammates even after that ugly 2008 offseason mess that resulted in his trade to Washington.

On the field, Taylor has made significant contributions. Has he been as good as he was when he was younger? Of course not. But to even expect that is crazy. He's still an effective pass rusher, though. He is tied for second on the team with 6 sacks and probably gets more pressure on the quarterback than anyone else on this team other than Cameron Wake. Throw in a fumble return for a touchdown and an interception that set the Dolphins up deep in opponent territory - and yes, I'm pretty happy he's back in Miami.

Chad Henne was going to ease into the roll of starting quarterback until Chad Pennington's season ended abruptly. Was Henne's "instant" promotion a positive or a negative? Where have you seen Henne improve and where has he struggled?

I don't want to say his promotion was either a positive or a negative. He obviously brings something to this offense that they didn't have with Chad Pennington under center - a big arm. But that doesn't replace all of the things that Pennington brought to the table. His accuracy, his knowledge of the game, his leadership. With all that said, however, Henne's promotion to the starting role this season is definitely a positive in terms of what it means to this franchise's future.

As far as his play is concerned, his big arm comes as advertised. He can make all of the throws. We've seen his decision making improve. He had a tendency of holding onto the ball too long. But recently, we've seen him throw the ball away when necessary. And outside of last week's game, he hasn't really had issues with forcing the ball into coverage. I've also been impressed with Henne's ability to roll out and throw on the run.

But there are two main areas that Henne still needs to improve in. One - his accuracy. Sometimes he's perfectly on the money. Other times he's off. It's more of a consistency issue than an accuracy issue - which is a good thing. He has the ability to be extremely accurate. He just needs to be more consistent. Two - his tendency to stare down receivers. This is the biggest issue, in my opinion. He still tends to telegraph where he's going to throw by staring down his receiver. But I've seen him do this less and less as he has gained experience. Hopefully this is just something that goes away as he gets more comfortable in this offense with these receivers.

In our last matchup, Brady threw for 332 yards, 147 of those to Randy Moss. Do you feel like the Dolphins' young secondary has made some positive strides? Is Vontae Davis the guy who will get Moss and if so, will Randy Moss have a tough day?

I think that Vontae Davis and Sean Smith have definitely made some positive strides. And every time either one gives up a big pass, I see it as a learning experience for those two kids. With that said, I'm very worried about Sunday because it's beginning to look like both of those two young corners are hitting the dreaded "rookie wall." Most rookies only played in 12 or 13 games per year at the college level. We're now getting to that point where their bodies aren't used to taking this weekly pounding. And if either of them are a step slower because of this, Sunday could be a long day.

As far as who covers who, I'm still not too sure. I thought we'd see more of Sean Smith on Randy Moss last time - simply because of his size. But Vontae got the duty last time and didn't play poorly outside of one or two plays. Unfortunately, you can't give up one or two big plays per game and hope to win. The only thing I can guarantee you is that we'll see plenty of Nate Jones covering Wes Welker whenever Wes is lined up in the slot. Outside of that, it's anyone's guess.

A big shoutout to Matty I from for his most excellent answers. Head on over to The Phinsider for my answers to his questions.

Dolphins vs Patriots: Three Key Matchups

Matty I — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 05:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

Miami Dolphins cornerback Vontae Davis makes an interception behind New England Patriots wide receiver Randy Moss during their week nine game in Foxborough.

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Last week's loss in Buffalo still stings - I know. But nothing helps heal wounds like a win the following week. With the Patriots coming to town on Sunday, a win would be even more enjoyable. But it obviously won't be easy. The Patriots rarely ever lose two games in a row and they are going to be angry following their blow out loss to the Saints on national television a couple of nights ago.

But still - we need to keep the faith. With that said, here are three of the most critical matchups for Sunday's game:

Randy Moss/Wes Welker vs Vontae Davis/Sean Smith
It seems like we mention our two rookie corners every single week in this post. But that's because Vontae Davis and Sean Smith have had to go up against some of the NFL's best receivers this season. I'm sure it's been a terrific learning experience for these two kids. But on Sunday, these two need to apply some of the lessons they've learned this year and do their best to contain one of the league's best receiving duo.

Wes Welker and Randy Moss are at the top of all of the key statistical categories. Welker is first in receptions (85) while Moss is sixth (66). Moss, meanwhile, is first in receiving yards (992) while Welker is fifth (886). And the duo has combined to score 12 touchdowns this season. But they can be contained. Look no further than just two nights ago when the Saints held the two to a combined 9 receptions for 99 yards and no touchdowns. And that's with using a rookie corner and two veterans who were both just signed within the last two weeks. How did they do it? The Saints used an excellent mixture of coverages - man and zone - to keep the Patriots guessing. That's probably the game plan the Dolphins should use on Sunday.

What they shouldn't do is try the same game plan that they used back in week nine when these two teams met in New England. The Dolphins used a similar game plan to what the Giants used in the Super Bowl two years ago - trying to apply a lot of pressure while having the corners in man coverage. That didn't work. Davis was thrown at nine times while covering Moss or Welker, allowing six completions for 125 yards and a touchdown. He did have an outstanding interception early in the game, though. Smith, meanwhile, was thrown at three times while defending either of the two dynamic receivers, surrendering 2 completions for 23 yards.

These two young corners need to put together good performances for a full 60 minutes if the Dolphins want to steal this game and get back to .500.

Dan Koppen vs Paul Soliai
Back in week nine, the Dolphins were without starting nose tackle Jason Ferguson. Well it showed. The Patriots ran for 109 yards and averaged 4.5 yards per carry - which is not good considering the Pats are averaging under 4 yards per carry against the rest of the NFL. That day up in Foxborough, Paul Soliai played 29 snaps at either defensive tackle (when the Dolphins were using four down linemen) or nose tackle as he attempted to replace Ferguson. Quite frankly, he was owned.

Patriots center Dan Koppen really dominated Soliai for much of the game. Koppen weights under 300 pounds but was still able to manhandle the 340+ pound Soliai for much of the game. Sure, Soliai admitted that he probably shouldn't have played once he injured his ankle in that game because it was bothering him. But even before he hurt himself, Koppen was blowing Soliai off the ball - not even needing a double team on the much bigger nose tackle.

Last week against Buffalo, Soliai continued his struggles as Bills running back Fred Jackson ran for 73 yards and two touchdowns on just 15 carries. On Sunday, Soliai has got to play better and help make the Pats one-dimensional on offense.

Dolphin receivers vs Patriot corners
While the Pats did a good job containing Miami on the ground back in week nine (Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combined for just 81 yards on 22 carries), the Dolphin receivers were able to get open against this New England secondary. Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess combined for 11 receptions and 127 yards receiving while rookie Brian Hartline added an 18 yard reception. And we saw just how vulnerable New England's secondary is on Monday night when the Saints just lit them up.

Of course we all know that Drew Brees is a top three quarterback and he has a number of weapons at receiver. But still - the Patriots knew that the Saints would throw, spent the week drawing up a game plan to defend them, and still couldn't even come close to containing that offense.

Personally, I wouldn't even mind seeing Chad Henne come out and throw it around left and right on Sunday early in the game to loosen up that Patriot defense before turning to the usual run-heavy offense. I hope to see the Dolphins use some play-action passes early and take some shots in the 10 to 20 yard range to keep New England honest. But for this to work, Miami's receivers have got to step their game up and create some separation from these average (at best) Patriot cornerbacks.

Keys to Victory: Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Kurupt — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 13:30:11 -0000

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The Miami Dolphins aim to keep their playoff hopes alive as they travel to Ralph Wilson Stadium to take on the injury-depleted Buffalo Bills this Sunday. This will be the second meeting of the season between the teams, with Miami taking defeating the Bills handily, 38-10, in the first game. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams ran wild, while the Bills' offense continued its downward spiral. Since then, Brown has been lost for the year, Buffalo's offense has gotten even worse, Dick Jauron has been fired and another Bills season has gone by the wayside. Perry Fewell will be at home in Buffalo for the first time as the Bills' interim head coach. It should be a much closer game this time around, as the Bills look to pick up their first home victory over a division rival since 2007. What do the Bills have to do take care of business and get that mythical home W?

Run at the Dolphins: Even with a depleted offensive line, I still think it's very possible to run the ball well this week. The Dolphins have placed NT Jason Ferguson on IR with a quad injury, but were already proving to be vulnerable on the ground. After allowing just 61 yards per game on the ground through four games, the Dolphins' defense has given up 136 yards per game. Fred Jackson (and Marshawn Lynch if he plays) could have a nice game assuming the offensive line isn't downright pathetic. I expect the offense to try and get the ground game going early, especially if the weather is a factor. If they can establish the ground game, look for the Bills to go play action more often than we've seen.

Get it to TO early: Maybe Terrell Owens can still get the job done. Maybe the offense can continue to look a little better with him more involved. Maybe he can make some more big plays down the stretch. One thing that does seem certain is getting the ball to TO early in the game keeps him interested and focused. That needs to continue this week. Whether or not it was the plan, Perry Fewell seemed intent on making sure TO got some looks and catches early in the game. He was open over the middle often this past week and looked great on the deep passing routes. I'd love to see more of those. Getting Lee Evans more involved, once again, should also be a priority.

Utilize Shawn Nelson: Once a game it seems like Nelson flashes his potential, but then is never heard from again (except with penalties!). With the rookie getting more and more comfortable each week, its time to start making him a bigger part of the passing game. With his size and athleticism, throwing those jump balls to him when he's single covered seem like a no-brainer. He's made a pair of great catches this year and seem routes. I'd love to see more of those, and I also would like to see him on some crossing patterns giving him the opportunity to run after the catch.

Make Henne beat them: They needed to do this in the first game, but couldn't get it done. The Dolphins ran all over Buffalo and Chad Henne only needed to complete short passes to pick up 5-10 yards at a time. In order to force Henne to make plays, the defense has to shut down Williams and the running game on 1st and 2nd downs. If they can force some 3rd and longs, I like our chances of not only forcing some punts, but also forcing some turnovers. It was too easy for Henne last time, that needs to change.

Stop turning the ball over: The Bills have turned the ball over at least twice in eight of their last nine games. No wonder this offense can put points on the board. They can't get out of their own way.

Continue playing hard for Fewell: The Bills looked a little more passionate and played a little bit tougher last week against Jacksonville than we're used to. The intensity and desire needs to continue this week in front of the faithful home crowd. I like what Fewell brings to the table energy-wise, and I like seeing it rub off on the players. Keep it up, but this time turn it into a W!

******

The season is on the back stretch and the Bills will be playing out the string as they prepare for a coaching change, philosophy change, hopefully a front office change and a very important draft. But until January, this team will continue playing hard and playing to win. Nothing will make a frustrated Bills fan happier this Thanksgiving than a win over the hated Dolphins. Let's go Bills!

Sparano confirms Jason Ferguson lost for the season

Matty I — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 19:57:12 -0000

It seems like I'm having to talk about the loss of a key player every single week. Well this week is no different.

Tony Sparano has confirmed that starting nose tackle Jason Ferguson is indeed out for the remainder of the season after sustaining an injury to his right quad on Thursday night in Carolina. That means the only player on the roster now with nose tackle experience is Paul Soliai - and he himself is also dinged up. Sparano did seem optimistic, though, that Soliai would be ready to play on Sunday.

Randy Starks also took some snaps at nose tackle last season and Sparano said on Friday that he and Tony McDaniel would get looks at nose tackle if Ferguson and Soliai were both not available. But you also have to wonder if moving towards more of a 3-4/4-3 hybrid might be in Miami's best interest now with the loss of their big man in the middle.

Ferguson is fifth key Dolphin who has suffered a season-ending injury, joining Chad Pennington, Patrick Cobbs, Will Allen, and Ronnie Brown. Most teams would have thrown in the towel by now. But you have to give this team, these coaches, and this front office credit for the depth on the roster and the fight this team has shown week in and week out.

Six questions to ponder with six games left

Matty I — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 05:46:41 -0000

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Don't look now, naysayers. After a rough 0-3 start, the Dolphins are not only back at .500 for the first time in 2009, but are also within just one game of the AFC wildcard leaders. Even better news for Dolphin fans? Miami still has to play three of the teams who are ahead of them in the wildcard race - as well as one remaining shot at the division leading Patriots.

It's still going to be a tough climb, however. There are some big challenges that lay ahead for these Dolphins. So to prepare for these six games, let's highlight six critical questions that the Dolphins face.

Can Ricky handle the increased workload over the next month and a half?
After the terrible news last week about Ronnie Brown's injury, many of us were wondering if Ricky Williams would be able to step into the lead role in Miami's backfield and be as effective as he's been the past two seasons as the number two guy. On Thursday, Ricky answered that question by showing proving that he's still as capable a starter as he's ever been, rushing for 119 yards and scoring three touchdowns. But can he sustain this kind of production?

Against the Panthers, Williams received 22 carries. And that came on the heels of a 20 carry performance just 4 days earlier against the Buccaneers. That is a lot of carries for a 32 year old back. No - he's not your typical 32 year old running back and doesn't have the mileage that most 32 year olds have on them. But keep in mind that Ricky's season high in carries last season was only 16 (back in week three against New England). And if you want to know when the last time Ricky had at least 20 carries prior to the game against Tampa Bay? You'd have to go all the way back to New Year's Day on 2006, when he closed out the '05 regular season with a 28 carry, 108 yard performance in New England.

It's a lot to ask Williams to carry the rock 20-25 times per game over these remaining six games. At the same time, the Dolphins don't really have much of a choice.

How much will the Dolphins miss Ferg?
While nothing has been confirmed, it's expected that nose tackle Jason Ferguson will miss the remainder of the season with an injured right knee he sustained against the Panthers last week. Needless to say, this is a huge loss (no pun intended). A 3-4 defense is only as good as it's nose tackle performs. And Ferguson leaves a large void for Miami to fill (again, no pun intended).

This season, Ferguson has only missed one game. That day in New England, the Patriots averaged 4.5 yards per carry on the ground against a defensive line anchored by Paul Soliai in the middle. Soliai, meanwhile, has missed the last two weeks with his own injury issues. Outside of those two, the Dolphins don't have a real nose tackle to step in. Tony Sparano said that he would expect to play Tony McDaniel (6'7, 305) and Randy Starks (6'3, 305) at the nose if needed. Last year against the Ravens in the regular season, Starks did have to man the nose tackle position once Ferguson left the game with an injury (Soliai was suspended by the team for the game). While he wasn't terrible, the Ravens did run for 139 yards.

It will be interesting to see how this coaching staff attempts to make up for the rumored loss of Ferguson as we head down the home stretch.

Can the Dolphins beat a team that's better than they are?
Don't get all angry with me here. But you might need to take off those aqua colored glasses for a moment here. The way I see the season playing out, it will take at least 10 wins in the AFC to make the playoffs. For the Dolphins to get to that mark, they'll obviously have to win five of their remaining six. That means beating either the Patriots or Steelers - two teams who are ("homer-ism" aside) better than the Dolphins are.

The good news here is that both of these games are at home in Miami. The Dolphins have also played the Patriots tough once already this year. But let's be real for a moment - the Dolphins have not beaten a single team in 2009 that is better than they are. They've come close - tough losses at home to both of the undefeated teams (Colts and Saints). But a loss is still a loss. You can even make the case that Miami didn't beat a more talented team in 2008, either, despite winning 11 games. After all, they lost to the Ravens twice and to the eventual NFC Champion Cardinals. They did split with the Patriots, though.

To make the playoffs, the Dolphins will have to not just play these more talented teams tough - they will have to win at least one of those games.

Will the rookie wall be a problem?
Some people think that the idea of the "rookie wall" is nothing more than a term created by the media. But if you NFL head coaches about it, I'd bet most would say that the wall is real - and it can be problematic.

The Dolphins rely on two rookies to start at cornerback - which is always risky. Making things worse is that the Dolphins face three of the top five passing offenses over their remaining five games. Yup - just in time for that "rookie wall" to rear its ugly head. In college, these kids will only play about 12 games in a season - maybe 13. And in the month of December, these kids will play - at most - two games. They'll have a lot of rest in between games in December, as well. In the NFL, there is no rest in December. That's the time to put up or shut up as teams make their playoff pushes.

For the Dolphins, Vontae Davis and Sean Smith cannot afford to go through any kind of rookie wall. Hopefully their offseason training has prepared them well to close out a season strong.

Can we see more Wake?
Ever since the John Beck debacle, I try my best not to "anoint" a player too early in their careers. But like Cameron Wake rushing off the edge, I'm coming around quickly. After picking up three more quarterback hurries on just 10 snaps against the Panthers, Wake leads the Dolphins in hurries with 15 - on just 100 total defensive snaps.

Now I know we can't just steal Joey Porter's reps after his outstanding game against Carolina last week. But maybe we should cut into Charlie Anderson's 20 to 25 snaps per game to give Wake some more opportunities. He always seems to be causing havoc on the field when he's out there. So why not unleash him a little bit more and see what happens?

Can Henne win a game on his own?
It's not secret that the Dolphins want to run the football. So teams will continue to stack the box against Miami's offense and force the young Chad Henne to beat them through the air with an average (at best) receiving group. That means there's likely going to come a point in time this season in which Henne will be asked to win the game himself through the air.

Some might argue that he did just that back in his second career start against the Jets. Sure, he was a critical part of that big Monday night win - throwing for 240 yards and two touchdowns. But let's not forget that Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams also combined for 142 yards on the ground, Ronnie threw for 21 more, and on that final game-winning drive, Henne only completed 3 passes (though two of those were on 3rd down).

Now I'm not saying Henne can't win a game on his own at this stage of his development. But he hasn't had to yet. It's likely, though, that some point during these final six games, he will indeed be asked to do so.

Ricky Williams leads the way as Dolphins defeat Panthers

Matty I — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 06:06:00 -0000

It sure did get nerve-racking a few times on Thursday night. But when all was said and done, the Dolphins went up to Charlotte and officially dug themselves out of the 0-3 hole they put themselves in to start the season by knocking off the Panthers 24-17.

Ricky steps up in Ronnie's absence to lead the way
There was a lot of panic amongst Dolphin fans over the past few days as we all awaited word on how serious Ronnie Brown's injury was. We then learned yesterday that Brown would be done for the season with a Lisfranc fracture to his right foot (he'll have surgery Friday, by the way). That's when we all began to wonder whether Ricky Williams could step into the role of workhorse and lead this offense. We all learned on Thursday night that - at least for now - Ricky's still got it.

In an outstanding performance, Williams carried the ball 22 times for 119 yards and two touchdowns - adding a receiving touchdown as well. This, by the way, was Ricky's third career three touchdown game and the first time in his career that he scored a touchdown both running and receiving. Not bad for a 32 year old back.

Don't let the numbers fool you, though. It was an up and down game for Williams. Nine of Ricky's 22 carries went for two yards or less - including four runs for negative yardage. Of course, it's not all Ricky's fault - sometimes he just got no blocking help from his line. But what impressed me most was how explosive Ricky was on some of those other carries. He looked very spry on that 3rd & 1 toss left to get down to the one yard line on Miami's second touchdown drive. And then, of course, there's the 46 yard scamper by Ricky in which he showed good burst and long speed on his way to the endzone - on carry number 22 on the night, by the way.

We said this week that without Ronnie and on a short week with little preparation time, the Dolphins would get back to the basics and play "conventional" football. They did just that - and it worked thanks to Ricky Williams. Now can Ricky keep it up for the rest of the season?

Henne and the receivers make some critical plays
For all the talk about how the Dolphins badly need a receiver - and they do - it's worth noting how well Chad Henne and his current group of receivers played on Thursday night. The stats aren't special by any means. And Henne was still a bit too inconsistent with his accuracy for my taste. But when they absolutely had to make a play, this passing offense got it done - against a pass defense that was ranked fourth in the NFL heading into this game.

Here's a stat I like a lot. When asked to pass on third down, Chad Henne started the game 0 for 3. But he then converted 5 of their next 7 3rd down passing situations - which included some of the biggest plays of the game.

It all started on Henne's completion to Ricky Williams out of the backfield on a 3rd & 9 inside the red zone. Ricky was running a Texas route out of the backfield (a zig zag where he runs towards the sideline out of the backfield and then cuts it inside like a slant once he hits the line of scrimmage) and Henne did a nice job of being patient and finding the open man.

On their next scoring drive, Henne converted a big 3rd & 6 by throwing a strike to Davone Bess, who made a remarkable lunging catch for the first down. Five plays later, Williams got into the endzone.

And then there was the biggest play of the game - which we'll get to in a moment.

All in all, you have to really like what you continue to see out of Henne. He didn't make any mistakes. He didn't take any sacks - a credit to both the offensive line and to Henne for getting rid of the ball when necessary. I'd like to see more consistency with his accuracy, of course. But it's not like he has an accuracy problem. Some of his throws are absolutely perfect in where they are placed (a couple throws to Bess, the throw to Brian Hartline, and the throw to Ted Ginn along the sideline). It's a consistency issue with him - especially when he needs to put some touch on the ball.

Henne's getting better, though. And I think his future is pretty bright.

TURNING POINT OF THE GAME
Some might say the turning point of the game was the 46 yard touchdown run by Ricky Williams. But that play never happens if not for the play that Chad Henne and Davone Bess made one play earlier.

Momentum was beginning to shift in Carolina's favor. The Dolphins were leading by only three late in the fourth quarter, staring down a 3rd & 12 and very close to a potentially costly three and out. The crowd was loud and the Panther defense was fired up. So what does a young, first year starting quarterback do? He takes the snap, rolls right, waits, waits, and waits some more. Then he shuffles left a little bit and throws a strike to Davone Bess - who was running right to left away from Henne, but also away from the coverage. Chad Henne showed outstanding poise and vision while Bess showed terrific awareness.

If the Dolphins don't make that play, who knows how this game plays out.

QUICK HITS
Many more quick thoughts on the game:

Some many performances deserve to be mentioned. But I'll start with Joey Porter. A team-high 8 tackles and 2 sacks? That's the "Peezy" I know and love. Welcome back! Put back-to-back games like this and I'll officially apologize to him.
Lousaka Polite is a monster. He's officially one of my five favorite current Dolphins. All he does is pick up short yardage first downs and knock heads. Even Joey Porter, speaking on NFLN after the game, talked about Polite's play tonight - and he wasn't even asked. It's easy to see why his coaches and teammates love this guy.
Jake Long simply owned Julius Peppers on Thursday night. Great job, Jake!
Speaking of the offensive line, how about that depth? Players kept going down left and right and it just didn't matter. Henne was never sacked and they opened up enough holes for Ricky. Huge shout-out to Nate Garner, by the way. The man played left guard, right tackle, and center at different times in this game. That's manning up.
Lex Hilliard - welcome to the NFL, kid. After back-to-back penalties by Jake Grove, Hilliard powered his way on a 3rd & 16 draw play - picking up 18 and a first down. Tacklers were just bouncing off of Hilliard on the run. He's not a bad fourth running back, huh? Again, props to the front office for the solid depth at running back as well.
Davone Bess - wow. How about those hands, folks? He had a few hiccups along the way this season. But it looks like our favorite undrafted wide receiver is back to his consistent form. That highlight lunging catch he made on a critical third down was the kind of catch that superstars make.
We have to give a shout-out to Ted Ginn. He didn't have any drops, made a couple of tough catches, and averaged 42 yards per kickoff return. He came into the game third in the league in kick returning. He now has a very real shot of leading the league in yards per kick return this season. At least that's something - and maybe will help build his confidence again.
Nice job by the defense getting pressure - at critical times, too. All four of Miami's sacks came on third down. Two of them were red zone sacks, too, forcing Carolina to punt. I think we need to dial up those safety blitzes a little bit more often - especially on third downs - moving forward. They seem to work and free up others to make a play.
Randy Starks is having a hell of a season. Starks was one of the two guys who made the initial stop on that 3rd & 1 run by the Panthers midway through the third quarter to stuff Carolina and force them to punt. He then sacked Jake Delhomme early in the fourth quarter on a 3rd & goal play to force the Panthers to settle for a field goal.
Nathan Jones is one of this team's unheralded key role players. He's made a number of big plays this season - including an interception to end a Carolina drive and a big pass break-up with under two minutes to go. He's becoming a terrific nickel corner.
Why not kick a field goal with 44 seconds left? It would have only been a 45 or 46 yarder for Dan Carpenter and would have sealed the game. A very bad decision by Tony Sparano here. Luckily, it didn't come back to bite him in the ass. But let's not have that happen again, alright?
Joey Haynos with two bad drops. Do I hear more calls for Kory Sperry?
Let's hope Jason Ferguson isn't hurt badly. Without him, this defense looks drastically different.
Just how important was it to get out in front of the Panthers 14-3 and take Carolina out of their game plan? Very. DeAngelo Williams was averaging nearly 10 yards per carry against the Dolphins. But he only got 13 carries thanks to a combination of poor play calling by Carolina and having to play catch-up late in the game. This game could have been ugly if Miami didn't get in front before the half.

Dolphins Mid-Season Review: Shifting expectations

Matty I — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:15:18 -0000

by Lynne Sladky - AP

Can this head coach/quarterback (Sparano/Henne) duo eventually do what the greatest head coach/quarterback (Shula/Marino) duo in team history couldn't do?

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We've officially hit the halfway point of the 2009 Miami Dolphins season and are now a season and a half into the Bill Parcells-Jeff Ireland-Tony Sparano era in Miami. Considering where we were when the "trifecta" took over, nobody should be disappointed about where this team is in terms of the long haul. With that said, of course, it's difficult to not be disappointed with Miami's current 3-5 record.

In this league, you are what your record says you are. That's generally true. But in the grand scheme of things, the Dolphins are much more than just an average run-of-the-mill 3-5 football team.

A shift in expectations

Entering the season, I was among the many who declared we wouldn't just be satisfied with an 8-8 or 9-7 season because of the "tougher schedule" the Dolphins faced in '09 as compared to '08. I wanted to be a playoff team once again and I honestly thought this team could pull it off. But lo and behold, wouldn't you know that it was indeed these "tough games" that have dug the Dolphins into a deep hole in the AFC playoff picture.

Now I'm not saying that I'm giving up on the playoffs in 2009. In fact, if the Dolphins take care of their next three games (against Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Buffalo) and they get a little help from New England's tougher opponents (@ Indianapolis and @ New Orleans), the Patriots could potentially be heading down to Miami on December 6 with a 7-4 record to face the 6-5 Dolphins. While those are a ton of "ifs" that must break in favor of Miami, it's not totally out of question.

With that said, my own personal expectations have shifted. I'm no longer as concerned with making the playoffs in 2009. If the Dolphins somehow pull it off and reach the postseason, that's terrific. But if they don't, that's fine too. Why? Because injuries and a lack of talent at critical positions have made me more concerned with developing this team for the long haul - not just for the immediate future.

The injuries to Chad Pennington and Will Allen, in particular, have changed what this season means to the Dolphins. I'd say that most fans would agree. But it's been these losses to teams like the Colts, Saints, and Patriots that have made me realize that this Dolphins team just isn't ready to really compete with their talent level. However, the strides that this franchise has made since the 2007 disaster are remarkable.

Integration of young players

Want to know why I'm not as distraught as some other Dolphin fans seem to be about this 3-5 season? It's because of how the Dolphins are setting themselves up for the future. The coaches are doing something that you don't see too often - they are trusting a number of rookies and young players. And the result is that we're seeing tangible reasons of why we should be excited for the future of this franchise.

First and foremost, there's Chad Henne. As you all know, I was squarely on the "start Chad Pennington" bandwagon all offseason long. While I hate to see what happened to CP - he deserves better but his body continually lets him down - letting Henne play and gain experience has been huge, and will continue to be huge, for this franchise. Ffor the first time in a long time, fans, coaches, and the front office can all be excited about the quarterback position. Folks, I really think we've found "our guy."

Has he been great? No. Has he been terrible? No. Has he shown flashes of greatness? Yes. Think back to just his second career start when Henne put together one of the best fourth quarters a young quarterback has put together in recent memory.

Does he have a lot to work on? Of course. His accuracy is shaky at times. He holds the ball too long sometimes. At times, he runs backwards when pressure is closing in - especially when he's pressured on those designed roll-outs.

At the same time, I've seen just as many positives. I've seen that strong rocket arm. I've seen some perfectly thrown balls. I've seen a toughness to hang in the pocket and deliver a pass with pressure bearing down on him. I've seen him get back up after taking a nasty shot in the pocker - like Sunday's "roughing the passer" hit by Patrick Chung. Most of all, I've seen the poise and mental toughness necessary to lead a team in hostile situations. Sure, against both the Saints and Patriots, Henne was unable to lead a game-winning or game-tying drive late in the fourth quarter. But both times, it wasn't because Henne failed. His teammates failed him.

There's a lot to like about Henne, that's for sure. But there are also other young players with a lot to like.

You got two rookie corners who are being trusted to start. And neither of them have played poorly. Both Sean Smith and Vontae Davis have had their ups and downs. But there have been more positives than negatives and they will only continue to get better. Over the long haul, the Dolphins are set with their starting cornerbacks.

The offensive line is also set for the foreseeable future. Only one starter, Jake Grove, is over 28 years old. And two, Jake Long and Donald Thomas, are only 24 and in just their second season. The way an offensive line gets better is by playing together for a long time, and that's what we're going to see in Miami over the next few seasons.

The defensive line also suddenly has a nice young core to build around. Kendall Langford, Phillip Merling, and Randy Starks all look like long-term contributors at defensive end for the Dolphins. And none of them are older than 25 years old (Starks). Tony McDaniel also looks like he could become a solid backup and he's only 24 himself.

The Dolphins also have other young contributors who could become major long-term factors. Chris Clemons and Tyrone Culver are two young safeties who will probably see more and more opportunities as the season goes on. Davone Bess and Brian Hartline are two young receivers who, ideally, would be very good complimentary receivers. Greg Camarillo is also relatively young and is looking more and more recovered from his knee surgery every week. I will continue to stand by my belief that Camarillo, once he's healthy, can be a starting #2 receiver in this league.

And let's not forget our favorite former CFL stand-out, pass rusher Cameron Wake. He's only 27 and has the potential to be a pass-rushing force for years to come. But he is still raw, which is probably why he hasn't seen the amount of snaps many would like him to see.

Clearly defined needs

One of the positives - if you can call it that - to come from Miami's 3-5 start has been how well defined this football team's needs have become. We all know what this team needs - some needs more pressing than others, of course.

Perhaps the most pressing need is at the wide receiver position. This offense will never be what it needs to be to get to that next level until they get a true "go-to" number one receiver. Opposing defenses have no reason to respect Miami's passing attack, allowing them to go all-out to stop the only real threat this offense has - their ground attack. But Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will become less and less effective on the ground as teams continue to put eight, and sometimes even nine, in the box to shut them down. In all honesty, can you blame them? I'd do the same thing. None of these receivers would even scare me a little bit.

This need has been magnified even more the past few weeks, too. In their last two losses, the Dolphins have been within a touchdown and had possession of the ball with over three minutes left. But each time, the Dolphins failed to move the ball, thanks in large part to receivers who just can't make the plays necessary to win football games.

But there are other needs as well. The Dolphins need upgrades at both inside and outside linebacker. A play-making free safety is another obvious issue. And we saw on Sunday that Paul Soliai might not be anything better than a back-up nose tackle. He underwhelmed as a starter, replacing the injured and aging Jason Ferguson. So nose tackle is also a need.

See this team for what it is

As a fan, we all want to see our team win championships. Year in and year out, we all look through "aqua and orange colored glasses" and view our team as either championship caliber or playoff caliber. But let's be real - this team just isn't as talented as the league's elite teams. That's why it's so impressive that the Dolphins were able to play teams like the Colts, Saints, and Patriots and nearly knock them off. Is it frustrating to lose those games? Of course. But we need to see what these losses show.

The Dolphins played teams with superior talent and gave them all they can handle - with a number of rookies and second-year players being key contributors. That says a lot about where this team is.

It says a lot about this coaching staff. Say what you want about some of their questionable play-calling and their gameday decisions. But this staff knows how to prepare to play more talented football teams.

It also says a lot about the mental toughness of these players. Some young players will go into a shell and back down to the elite NFL teams. But not this group of guys. They battle. And they're only going to get better.

The future is bright, people. We just need to give this front office time to address those remaining needs and the young players on this team more time to mature. But we're clearly on the right path.

Big plays doom Dolphins as they fall to Patriots

Matty I — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 05:39:16 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

Note to Paul Pasqualoni: You might want to double-team Randy Moss. He's only one of the greatest receivers of all-time.

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A lot of people will likely want to focus on the negatives in the Dolphins 27-17 loss to the Patriots on Sunday. And I'll obviously highlight some of the more glaring ones myself. But let's not sell this team short. The Dolphins went up to New England and stood toe-to-toe with a team with superior talent. And despite everything that went down, the Dolphins had the football with three and a half minutes left in the game, needing only a touchdown to tie. That's not too shabby.

Of course, there are no m oral victories in the National Football League. And I think head coach Tony Sparano said it best:

"Close in this game just doesn't get it. That's why these guys have a lot of banners out there right now. They figure out a way to win those close games. From our end, we understand where we are right now."

"We're a good football team. We're really close to being a really good football team. But we've got to get it to turn.''

Let's talk about some of the story lines from Sunday's game.

Can we get a little pressure, people?
You will look at the box score from this game and see that the Dolphins registered two sacks. But even that figure is misleading. Personally, here's the important question to ask: did the Dolphins make Tom Brady uncomfortable at all in the pocket? The answer, obviously, is a resounding "no."

How many times did we have to sit and watch Brady sit in the pocket for three or four seconds? How many times did we see Brady have the time to stand tall in the pocket and pat the football two or three times before firing a completion to one of his receivers? Far too many times, folks. Far too many.

After the game, Sparano himself acknowledged that a lack of pressure on Brady was a huge problem. But he also explained why the Dolphins couldn't just continually blitz left and right like some were probably hoping to see.

"We need to have more pressure on the quarterback," Sparano said. "Against a guy like Tom Brady, you can't come out there and just blitz the guy. This ain't his first rodeo. You've got to be able to win some of these [one-on-one] deals. You've got to win some of these five-man rush situations. We've got to do a better job of getting pressure on the passer, period."

Randy Starks was among those who echoed Sparano's sentiments.

"He had far too much time sitting back there," said Starks. "When you have the one-on-one, you've got to win."

Reggie Torbor was another Dolphin who believes that a lack of pressure on Brady was a big problem. In fact, even Brady himself said after the game that he really didn't feel any pressure, telling the media:

"There weren't too many pressures or hits, or anything like that. I had a lot of time to sit back there and make the throws."

But for some reason, Joey Porter - whose mouth I might be beginning to grow tired of - doesn't think that anything was wrong with Miami's pass rush:

"As a team we got pressure on them. But not enough. We could have made more plays out there. But it wasn't the lack of pass rush why we lost the game."

Ugh! Of course the lack of a consistent pass rush wasn't the one reason why the Dolphins lost. But it's among the biggest reasons. If Joey honestly thinks that the Dolphins got enough pressure on Brady, then I think he needs to take some time off or something because he's delusional. His head coach, teammates, and even the opposing quarterback all agree that the Dolphins really didn't do a good job at all pressuring the passer. And in my humble opinion, the lack of consistent pressure was the single biggest defensive problem on Sunday.

The 'Wildcat' and 'WildPat'
You know, maybe this Pat White experiment has some hope after all? That's what many Dolphin fans - those who have doubted White - were left saying following Sunday's game in which we saw some extensive Pat White snaps.

While White is still yet to complete a pass, we saw the kind of play-making ability White has and the new wrinkle - the spread option - that White introduces into this offense. White had a dazzling 33 yard run on Miami's first touchdown drive. And that drive was capped by a Ricky Williams 15 yard touchdown run in which White took the snap and ran the option to the right side, executing a perfectly timed pitch to Ricky, who then did the rest by powering his way into the endzone to tie the game at 10.

If nothing else, this is just another wrinkle now that opposing defensive coordinators must prepare for when facing the Dolphins. But at its best, this new wrinkle has the potential to gain some of that elusive "chunk yardage" that this offense seems to have so much trouble gaining.

White actually looked comfortable running the ball, too. He showed good vision, terrific acceleration, and even some toughness when running between the tackles. It's enough to get me excited about what this new wrinkle could become as White progresses.

All told, White took eight snaps at quarterback. On those plays, the Dolphins gained 60 yards of offense - including 52 of the 80 yards gained on that first Miami touchdown drive. Not too shabby.

On the flip side, the 'Wildcat' wasn't very effective at all. The Dolphins gained just 11 yards on 10 'Wildcat' plays. But they did lose 11 on the attempted reverse pass in which Henne was sacked. So if you take that away - which is a high risk, high reward, kind of play - the 'Cat gained 18 yards on 9 snaps. It did score a touchdown, though, when Ronnie Brown threw a 1 yard pass to Joey Haynos. And I really like the potential of more 'Wildcat' snaps inside the red zone because of Ronnie's ability to accurately throw. But the 'Wildcat' was bottled up effectively for the third week in a row.

To be fair, though, the entire running game was bottled up due to the lack of any real passing attack. Ronnie and Ricky combined for just 81 yards and averaged only 3.68 yards per carry. So it's not so much that the 'Wildcat' is dead as it is Miami's inability to run the football right now due to defenses making it a priority to shut down the ground attack.

Passing continues to be an issue with mediocre receivers
Chad Henne's stat line wasn't terrible. Of course, 42 of those yards were garbage time passing yards. But even still, I like what I have seen out of Henne thus far.

Henne continues to impress with his arm strength. There's no question that he has a cannon. His accuracy is still off at times - but I see the number of inaccurate throws going down each week it seems, which is a positive sign. But most of all, I have been impressed with his poise and toughness in tight situations.

Take that final drive with the score 24-17, for example. In a hostile environment with the game on the line, all Henne did was put the ball right on the money on to two of his receivers. But, yet again, Miami's receivers failed to make the plays that must be made to knock off good football teams. Brian Hartline dropped what was a catchable ball and would have resulted in a first down. Then two plays later, it was Ted Ginn dropped a catchable ball that would have also resulted in a first down and extended that potential game-tying drive.

Was either catch an easy catch to make? No. But Henne put the football right where it had to be each time to give only his receiver a chance to make the catch. Both passes hit the receivers in their hands. Both catches have to be made.

But more than anything else, those two plays just emphasize what the Dolphins must address in the offseason. They need that true "go-to" receiver that good NFL teams have. They need to give their young (potential franchise) quarterback some help out there. All he can do is stand tough in the pocket and put the football right where it needs to be. He did that twice on a potential game-tying drive and his receivers failed him. It's that simple.

With all that said, Henne still has issues to iron out himself. For example, he can't run backwards when under immense pressure. He needs to learn to either throw the ball away or at least reduce the negative yardage by going down rather than backwards. Obviously, his use of that "fourth timeout" was costly in a crucial moment of the game - resulting in a five yard penalty. But even still, he showed the mental toughness to put that mistake behind him and make a throw to Ginn that a good receiver has to make.

The fact of the matter remains that the Dolphins simply don't have the receivers to get the job done. And until they do, this offense will struggle. Teams will key on the run - as we've seen these past three or four weeks - and will force Chad Henne to beat them. I think he has the talent to do so. But he needs his supporting cast to make some plays.

TURNING POINT OF THE GAME
The Dolphins had just put together a 16 play, 66 yard, 10 minute touchdown drive to take a 17-16 lead. Leave it to this defense to give the lead right back.

On the ensuing New England possession, on the third play of the drive, Tom Brady connected with Randy Moss on a crossing route - in which Brady had a ton of time throw - and Moss stiffed-armed Vontae Davis and was off to the races for a 71 yard touchdown. The Dolphins never recovered. Without question, that play was Sunday's turning point of the game.

QUICK HITS
Some more quick hit thoughts on Sunday's game:

I know the secondary didn't perform well today. But I'm very excited about the futures of Sean Smith and Vontae Davis. Vontae's interception was a spectacular play. And he even impressed Randy Moss, who said after the game about Vontae, "Look, I'm heading out of this league. You're coming in. You're going to be a good player. Keep working."
So why was Moss single-covered so much? Tony Sparano said after the game that "you can't double them all." And that's exactly it. When the Patriots have 5 guys going out in routes, the Dolphins don't have too many options. Should they have had a deep safety more often? Probably. But a deep safety doesn't help on Randy's 70 yard touchdown off of a crossing route. And Vontae was step for step with Randy on his first big reception. He just didn't get his head around quick enough and Randy made a terrific one-handed catch. What can you do?
The Dolphins converted 52% of their 3rd downs (9/17). That's pretty damn good.
Dan Carpenter continues to earn his "DC$" nickname. Anyone want to argue about it at this point?
Joey Haynos? Ain't nothing wrong with that. I want to see some more of him in the coming weeks.
I'm still not a fan of Ricky Williams taking the 'Wildcat' snap. I think I've seen enough of it. Ronnie just has a knack for it - let's stick to him as the 'Wildcat' orchestrator.
Did the Dolphins miss Jason Ferguson and Channing Crowder or were the Dolphins just too concerned about the pass? Either way, the Pats averaged 4.5 yards per carry on the ground. Not acceptable.
Still some questionable play-calling. But the thing is - if those play-calls work, nobody would be calling for Dan Henning's head like some were during the game. He's a genius if a play works; an idiot if it doesn't. Is that fair?
With that said, I HATED the quick screen to Davone Bess on a 3rd & 19. At least take a shot deep. In fact, why didn't we see at least one deep pass attempted during the game?
Last word about the "clock" controversy before halftime: it's not a controversy. When the football hit the ground on the incomplete pass, there was still one second left on the clock. Period. Sure, if it's in Miami, the operator would run that second off. But props to Gillette Stadium's clock operator for being alert and stopping the clock as soon as the ball hit the ground. That's a benefit of home field advantage. If the roles were reversed and we were at home, I'd hope our clock operator would be as alert.

Sunday Fish Fry Part 2: Man the Longboats! Patriots offense v. Dolphin D

JohnHannahRules — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 23:36:34 -0000

More photos » by Matt Dunham - AP

New England Patriots tight end Benjamin Watson (84), left, crosses to score a touchdown game at Wembley. Pats' tight ends could play a key offense role against the Dolphins this week. (AP Photo/Matt Dunham)

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The Dolphins will let you score. Well, they won't let you, but teams do seem to rack up the points on Miami. Even teams with rookie quarterbacks who ultimately lose. Miami allows just over 25 points per game, good enough for 23rd league wide and a tie with Jacksonville.

Their D ranks 18th overall when adjusted for strength of schedule. Not horrid, I guess, but not scintillating either. Since playing Buffalo, the Phins have surrendered 27, 46 and 30 points (Jest, Saints, Jest). But the question tonight isn't "how good is Miami generally," but rather "How good will Miami be against New England?" On paper, at least, the answer is "not good."

According to Football Outsiders, Miami has the worst pass defense in the league against Tight Ends. They're quite good against other receivers, but simply cannot seem to locate that skinny-looking lineman when he runs out for a pass. On a per game basis, they allow almost seventy yards receiving to the TE. That's a lot.

Sticking for the moment with FO's system, New England has one of the best tight ends in the league right now and two in the top 30. Ben Watson ranks 6th overall in his value over a replacement player. His per play value over an average player ranks him first in the league. While Chris Baker doesn't rank as high as Watson overall, both players suffer in the rankings somewhat because they aren't used all that often. Expect that to change on Sunday. Note, however, that Watson is listed as questionable.)

For the first time in its history, Miami is now starting three rookies in its defensive backfield. Young cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Sean Smith have been thrown into the fire this year, and have been described by Coach Tony Sparano as forgetful youngsters. In other words, they're cocky SOB's who remember their successes and instantly forget their mistakes. Perfect CB material, but young is young.

At the safety position Miami entered the season with maturity, and could have felt about as good as any team about the two rangers. Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson were expected to be steadying hands on the tiller. The high-priced Wilson struggled, however, and Sparano boldly elevated rookie Chris Clemons against the Jest, the same week Davis got the full time nod due to WIll Allen's season-ending injury.

The upshot? Mark Sanchez went 20 of 35 for 265 yards. Ouch. Still, as the Phaithful will quickly remind you, they won. (Thanks, boys.) Although Smith was drafted to handle the tall guys, Cotchery torched him and now he gets Moss. There's no one in the league who can cover Welker.

Why they won is mostly to do with special teams (about which more briefly). But let's not rush to phase three. Our running game is average; their run D is average. (Though FO ranks our run game a defense-adjusted seventh, so it's more effective than given credit for.) But like I said in Part I, running isn't going to be the whole story and when Miami is on defense it isn't going to be half of the story. Injuries are why.

Nosetackle Jason Ferguson and old friend Channing Crowder are both listed as questionable for the game. Coach Sparano states confidence in Crowder's replacement, Reggie Torbor, but NT understudy Paul Soliai would be making his first start. (Bonus: Joey Porter still tender in the hamstringal region.) But those aren't the injuries I'm most interested in.

I know Matt Light doesn't have many fans anymore. But no one does very well against Jason Taylor, which is a left-handed way of saying Light does as well as anyone. Light will sit with a bum knee and rookie Sebastian Vollmer will get his second start. He did pretty well in his first shot of big playing time against Tennessee, but struggled against an underwhelming Tampa Bay from time to time. On Sunday he'll confront the toughest competition he's ever faced.

How he performs may well determine the outcome of the game. Just as safety play by the Patriots will key the defense, I think that our offensive success rides on how well Vollmer handles Taylor -- or fails to. Miami has been very frank about the need to get pressure on Tom. Indeed, it's the only way they'll likely accumulate enough of an edge to win (more, again, below). Expect them to bring the house.

Finally, the "more." The Jets dominated the game in every category last week, yet still came up short. Key plays by the defense were a big reason -- including one from JT -- but the numerical advantage came on the feet of Ted Ginn. The Patriots absolutely must contain him in the return game. If things are going well, GInn is going to get the ball a lot. New England can not afford to let him do a lot with it.

That's all I've got time for and I'm sorry. Blogging from the road isn't a joy, but I'll be back in time to watch the game tomorrow. Add your own analysis in the comments and thanks to you all for helping Marima and me keep the place warm for MaPatsFan. Family issues are front and center for him right now, so let's all hold him warmly in our thoughts. I'm sure we'll have him back before long.

Enjoy the balance of your weekend -- see you at Game Time!