SB Nation - Darren McFadden

Oakland Raiders Postgame Recap: Raiders 20, Broncos 19

Rated-R Superstar — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 00:43:37 -0000

Yes, Charlie Frye was the guy going into this one. No, he wasn't the last one standing. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

It thankfully wasn't JaMarcus Russell getting the start under center. Instead, it was Charlie Frye getting the start at quarterback for the Oakland Raiders today as they hoped to put a minor dent into the the Denver Broncos' playoff hopes. Little did we know that both Russell and Frye would play a role in deciding the outcome of today's game. The Raiders (4-9) and the Broncos (8-5) met earlier this year in Oakland in which Denver prevailed convincingly. Last year in Denver, however, it was Oakland who came away with a shocking 31-10 victory. This time around, let's see how the two bitter rivals went at each other. Anything can happen in a rivalry game between two original AFL franchises.

Michael Bush made his only carry in the first quarter worth an important six points. [via a.espncdn.com]

First Quarter: The Broncos began the game kicking it off to the Raiders. Not surprisingly, the ineffective Gary Russell was returning kicks. He took a knee, though, and the kick into the end zone actually benefited us. Charlie Frye, a 6-14 record as a starter, took the field and threw an incomplete pass on the first play. Out of the power-I, Justin Fargas gained a few yards on the next play. Needing seven yards, a six-yard pass to Chaz Schilens brought out the punt team. Shane Lechler only managed a weak 45-yard punt right to Eddie Royal which was returned for not too many yards. On first down, the rookie out of Georgia by the name of Knowshon Moreno carried it to the right side and was tackled by Nnamdi Asomugha. On second down, Greg Ellis almost got to Kyle Orton and forced an incomplete pass off the deflection. A false start penalty on tight Daniel Graham set Denver back some more, and they needed 12 yards on third down. It didn't matter as Royal picked up more than enough to convert it. Utilizing the running backs effectively -- particularly Knowshon Moreno with just a little dash of Correll Buckhalter -- allowed the Broncos to move down the field nicely. A third down stop inside the 10 by the Raiders defense forced a chip shot field goal by Matt Prater. The Broncos had taken the early 3-0 lead. The second possession started with a four-yard pass from Frye to Schilens. A three-yard run by Darren McFadden made it a very, very manageable third down. The Broncos out of the blitz and despite being in a shot gun, Frye hurried the throw. It wasn't much a throw. The ball just sort of floated out there and Champ Bailey grabbed it easily out of the air. On Denver's first play on their next possession, Brandon Marshall made a 24-yard catch after running his route after being put in motion. Two plays later, the Broncos ran a screen to Ryan Clady which cost them yards thanks to a very nice tackle by Asomugha. A confusing penalty pushed the Broncos back to the 17 yard line. Kyle Orton was sacked by rookie Matt Shaughnessy on the next play, and then a screen play to Eddie Royal was stopped by Stanford Routt and company on the right side. Another Matt Prater field goal -- this one extra "boomy" -- gave Denver a 6-0 lead with just over four minutes to play in the first quarter. A dumb intentional grounding penalty cost the Raiders 15 yards and a down. Kenny Peterson squashed Fargas behind the line of scrimmage and it become third down and impossible. Another blah run and it was punt time once again. A 64-yard punt by Lechler, all of which came by of the leg, was returned for a mediocre gain by Kenny McKinley. Moreno continued to own us on the ground with a couple of more nice carries. A third down blitz forced an incomplete pass on coverage by, yes, Chris Johnson! Mitch Berger, who seem as if has been punting forever, booted a smashing 12-yard punt out of bounds. Oakland started at their own 34 yard line and Charlie Frye shocked the crowd with a 26-yard scamper on the left side after a play fake. That exciting play capped the first quarter at Invesco Field at Mile High.

Sebastian Janikowski dropped in a 54-yard field goal as he routinely does. [via a.espncdn.com]

Second Quarter: The second quarter began with Frye looking deep for Louis Murphy; however, it was incomplete although an illegal contact penalty gave the Raiders five free yards. Shortly, third down and long followed. A nice crossing pattern to Johnnie Lee Higgins picked up 12 yards and the first down as well. Then boom, I don't even know what just happened! Michael Bush, on his first carry of the game, goes 23 yards and in for the score. It's his first touchdown in nine games and a Sebastian Janikowski extra point gave Oakland a 7-6 lead early in the second quarter. Denver's next possession ended up with a punt after a first down. Mike Mitchell knocked down Orton after bringing the blitz on third down. Higgins returned the punt for a decent gain and the Raiders had good field position. After some plays, Elvis Dumervil grabbed Charlie Frye's facemask and was called for a roughing the passer penalty. A 15-yard penalty gave Oakland the ball at their own 48. A couple of run plays later made it third and manageable for Frye and company. Chased out of the pocket, Frye threw off of his back foot and hit Murphy on the right side. It was a great effort by both parties. Josh McDaniels threw out the challenge flag, but it only cost him a timeout in the end. The ruling on the field stood as originally called and Oakland had a first down at Denver's 41 yard line. McFadden picked up three yards on a carry to the left side as we Raider fans collectively as a bunch were wondering where Michael Bush was. Anyway, the game must go on. A one-yard pass from Frye to Luke Lawton on a play-action made it third down and six yards to go. Ah, now Bush is in the backfield. Out of the shot gun, Frye fired down the field to Schilens. It appeared as if Schilens had come down with it, but Denver's Tony Carter wouldn't give up on the play and made a nice play on the ball. Janikowski squeaked in a field goal to give the Raiders had a 10-6 lead over the Broncos. Denver opened up their next drive with what's been working well and that's been Knowshon Moreno's legs. A six-yard carry was all very well, but then Tyvon Branch blew the next one up in the backfield. An incomplete pass intended for LaMont Jordan set up a punt and a bunch of booing from the home crowd. A punt gave it back to Oakland, but it backed them up 15 yards after the Higgins return because of an illegal block in the back penalty on Sam Williams. According to commentator Steve Tasker, a former special teams specialist, claims there was no illegal block in the back. It didn't matter what he thought, however. A timeout was burned by Frye before the first play was run. Brandon Myers, filling in for the injured Zach Miller, made his first catch of the game for a decent gain. Michael Bush finally got a carry after his 23-yard touchdown in the first quarter and it was good enough for a first down. Frye was having communication problems with his helmet, so he ran over to the sidelines to get the play yelled at him. Andra Davis almost picked off Frye on the next play. Whew, that was close. Another near-turnover happened on the next play as Bush lost it; however, left tackle Mario Henderson was able to pick it up. A third down draw to Bush goes for 13 yards and Denver's defense had no idea. A solid run by McFadden took us to the two-minute warning. In good position for points, the Raiders looked to forge ahead some more. A nice throw from Frye to Murphy picked up a good chunk of yards and yet another 13-yard run by Bush took it to Denver's 16 yard line. Tony Stewart got into the act a few plays later with his first catch of the game. The Broncos got their stop on third down and the Raiders were confined to just three points. Janikowski booted through his second field goal of the day and Oakland had a 13-6 lead over Denver. Using up 22 seconds, the Broncos had three incomplete passes and then a short little pass over the middle to Jabar Gaffney. Tom Cable used his final timeout and forced the Broncos to at least bring out the punting unit. A 45-yard punt ended the half with Oakland on top over Denver by a 13-6 score. Oh, but wait as there was a penalty and so the Raiders got the chance to run one more play. A nice run for McFadden took us to halftime.

Honoring Chris Henry before the game, Brandon Marshall scored a touchdown during it. [via a.espncdn.com]

Third Quarter: The Broncos started the second half with the ball. A touchback by Janikowski plated Denver at their own 20. After picking up a first down, Kirk Morrison made a nice tackle in the open field to bring up a third down for the Broncos. Orton fired and completed it to Brandon Stokley as he, along with Tony Scheffler, made his first catch of the game on the opening drive of the second half. A 13-yard run by LaMont Jordan followed that as Hiram Eugene knocked him out of bounds. The Denver offense appeared to be firing on all cylinders as Orton hooked up with Eddie Royal in the middle of the field. A sense of urgency indeed from the Broncos offense, Gus Johnson. A big third down and long Denver could not convert thanks to a heavy blitz and great coverage by Chris Johnson. Matt Prater banged through his field third goal of the game and Oakland maintained their lead, with it now standing at 13-9. Oakland had the ball back and Frye hit Bush in the flat for a nice gain on the left side to pick up a first down. A toss to McFadden on the right side -- hey, McFadden in space -- picked up good yardage and even a first down in the process. Shaken up on the play was Champ Bailey, and he had to leave the game. A promising drive turned sour, however, with McFadden getting the ball stripped. Denver had it at midfield. A struggling offense has gained momentum just like that. On the first play, though, Asomugha blew it up in the backfield as he dropped Moreno for a four-yard loss. A stupid penalty on the other side of the field went against Stanford Routt and a third down and 11 turned into an automatic first down. A one-handed grab by Brandon Marshall gave the Broncos a first down and then he made another play all the way down to the Raiders' 19 yard line. Denver really took advantage of Marshall in this quarter when Asomugha wasn't on him. On a scamper by Kyle Orton, Tommy Kelly was down on the field with an injury. Some plays later, Orton hooked up with Marshall as Brandon was a yard deep in the end zone against a zone defense. Following that play, a fight occurred. I didn't see who exactly was involved, but it looked like Richard Seymour against some offensive linemen from Denver. Anyway, Denver cashed in on the McFadden fumble and the Broncos had scored 10 straight points to take a 16-13 lead late in the third quarter. Gary Russell finally got a chance to return a kick and it was actually a good one; however, penalty flag totally negated that one. It seems like the game is totally spiraling out now. A couple of sweet runs by Michael Bush -- including one of the 40-yard variety -- took the ball down to the 31 yard line of Denver's. Then, Darren McFadden had a huge run of his own that went for 28 yards on the left side. After a pair of one-yard Bush runs, the Raiders were still on the outside looking in with 28 seconds to go in the third quarter. On third down and needing a yard, another carry for Bush went nowhere but instead backwards. That ended the third quarter.

Yes, this is the correct reaction after JaMarcus Russell's performance. [via a.espncdn.com]

Fourth Quarter: To start the quarter, the Raiders were looking for the end zone. On fourth down, Cable elected to go for it. A fake dive and pitch to McFadden went for two yards, but was ultimately a yard short. Denver took over at their own one yard line. The defense stood firm, however, and Berger booted it to Higgins. A nice punt, Higgins backpedaled and was able to return it for some yards to his own 40 yard line. Carries by McFadden, Bush and then Bush again picked up a first down for the Raiders as they moved into Broncos territory. Frye dropped back to pass and was totally rocked by Andra Davis. Trying to get up to his feet under his own power, Frye just could not due to the impact of the hit. The trainers came onto the field and so, yes, JaMarcus Russell marched onto the field as we hung our heads. Where was J.P. Losman? An illegal shift penalty pinned the Raiders back even further. A run by Bush was followed up by a timeout. Let's have a recap within the recap for a second. Russell comes in and we have two men in motion at the same time, a weak run to the left side and then a timeout. Alright, so the run play wasn't on him. Still, you see what it's like with Russell in the game at quarterback instead of right tackle. Well, the next pass was totally short intended for Murphy and a five-yard spiking penalty on Louis brought out Lechler for a punt. The Broncos came out running it with Moreno and Jordan, and the Raiders are going to need a stop somehow to get the offense back out there. On the next play, a slant to Stokley went all the down inside he five as he beat Routt on that play. A horse collar penalty on Routt was tacked on. There was a bit of a delay afterward with some laser trouble in the crowd, but the game was continued. A stop on third down on the ground and a fourth down stop through the air held Denver to a field goal. After lasers and guys losing their pants, we had a bit of a scrummage after the field goal. It's all going down today. Just under six minutes remained with the Broncos on top, 19-13. A run by Bush and a four-yard reception by Schilens made it a very manageable third down for Russell. A low ball to Bush, that should have been caught, was dropped by Bush. The defense did their part, largely due to the sack, and Oakland was getting the ball back after the Denver punt. After a Higgins return, the Raiders had it at their own 38 yard line with still 3:29 to play. Russell was still the quarterback. On the first play, Cooper Carlisle had to scoop up a Russell fumble. God, we're doomed. Oh, but a flag on the next play on Andre Goodman gave the Raiders the ball in Broncos territory. A pass interference was rightfully called and new life had been granted. On second down, Russell was knocked out of the game. It's up to quarterback number three -- J.P. "Does He Even Know a Play?" Losman -- to save us now. After one incomplete pass by Losman, Russell was back in there. On fourth down, he fired it over the middle and it was caught by Tony Stewart who had enough for a first down. That took us to the two-minute warning. The first play out of it, Russell hit Stewart for nine yards. Following that, he found Schilens at the 10 yard line. Following an incomplete pass, an illegal contact penalty gave the Raiders an automatic first down at the five. There were 45 seconds to go in the game. Out of the shot gun, right tackle Cornell Green had a false start. That's pretty inexcusable. Still, it was a first down. Out of the shot gun, Russell dropped back to pass and has his arm hit as he he threw. The ball went out of bounds to the right. Then, on the next play, the impossible happened. Russell fires and it's caught by Chaz Schilens, his favorite target. With 35 seconds to go, the Broncos had just one timeout remaining. McKinley brought out the kick to the 21 yard line. Greg Ellis breaks through on the first play and sacks Kyle Orton while forcing a fumble in the meantime. After a second down incomplete pass, a deep ball to Brandon Marshall was broken up thanks to a huge hit from Michael Huff. A fourth down pass was completed to Brandon Stokley with about eight seconds to go; however, with no timeouts, Denver couldn't stop the clock. The game was over the Raiders had prevailed, 20-19, on the road over the Broncos.

The caption goes right here. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

The Report Card: I'll give grades to the pass offense, rush offense, pass defense, rush defense and special teams. Of course, you're welcome to give your own grades in the comments.

Pass Offense: D+ -- When you only complete less than 50 percent of your passes and you throw for 115 yards with an interception, you don't even deserve a "D+" grade; however, when you lead your team down the field like that to win the game, there's a curve involved. I think this is even a little generous.
Rush Offense: A -- Michael Bush had a tremendous day on the ground and Darren McFadden was certainly very good himself despite just 12 carries. Overall, a touchdown to go along with a 7.1 yards per carry average is very nice. Getting that touchdown in the third quarter maybe would've bumped it up to an "A+" grade, but we'll take this one every single time out.
Pass Defense: B -- Brandon Marshall was contained to a degree and that's all you can really ask for against a great wide receiver. Nnamdi Asomugha covered him well, but Stanford Routt and Chris Johnson didn't. Overall, the heat was on Kyle Orton enough to make him uncomfortable back there at times.
Rush Defense: A- -- A bad start, yes, but the rush defense really put the clamps down. LaMont Jordan had a nice average, but Knowshon Moreno did absolutely nothing in the second half. This was probably our best game as a unit as far as the opposition's ground game goes.
Special Teams: B -- Maybe not a great return pursuit a few times and Lechler didn't have his best day, but overall, it was a really good effort. Gary Russell didn't get a chance to return too many, but Johnnie Lee Higgins was decent and Sebastian Janikowski didn't miss.

My Thoughts and Tidbits: Wow, that was a terrific ending. Who thought that Frye would get knocked out, Russell would get knocked out and then Losman would have to come in? Then, who thought Russell would come back in the game and then lead the team to a game-winning touchdown drive? Man, that was an incredible game. The defense really played hard. The defensive line brought the heat, the linebackers tackled and the defensive backs made plays all over the field. That's how you respond after a bad game, guys. Let's finally get two consecutive wins with us taking on the Cleveland Browns (3-11) next Sunday. Thank you, Oakland Raiders, for our early Christmas present.

Poll

Weekly Recap Poll: Who was the Oakland Raiders player of the game?

Sunday Morning Scout--Oakland at Denver Edition

Jeremy Bolander — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 08:23:44 -0000

I take an inordinate amount of notes on the upcoming games throughout the week, culled from all of Doug's great links in Tracks, emails with local and not-so-local sportswriters and analysts, and a few rare gems that I manage to find the time to dig up myself.

I finally decided it was time to settle on a format and share the info with MHR, so bear with me if this seems clumsy or ham-handed in its first incarnation; as in any analysis, whether it is draft prospects or short yardage running games, the choice isn't "what do I include?" but, "what do I leave out?" Let's see how it goes. Welcome to Sunday Morning Scout, the best way to begin a Broncos Sunday: MHR style!

A clear playoff picture. Home division games.

With three weeks to go, this is pretty easy: beat Oakland and beat Kansas City, two sub-.500 teams whom Denver has beaten by double digits already this year.

Worst-case scenario if they do this is 10 wins, which can only be challenged by both Miami (7-6) and Baltimore (7-6) going 3-0 and having Miami's Strength of Victory clock in higher than Denver's. Denver currently owns the higher (adjusted for assumed wins and losses by the above scenario) strength of victory, and a little projective number crunching puts the remaining variables in Denver's favor by a slight 2-1 edge (out of 27 variable games Denver only requires 9 favorable outcomes compared to Miami's 18).

The NFL is a game of percentages over time, and those percentages say that in the above tiebreak scenario, Denver's slight advantage is all they need, so Denver's job is as clear as it has ever been: win division games at home. That was true on day one of the season, and it will still be true on day 119.

STRATEGY

Run/pass balance.

Denver pummeled the Raiders with an unbalanced 67% - 33% run/pass split earlier in the year. For that game, it worked out to 4.8 yards per play (45 total) on rushes and 6.8 yards per play (23 total) on passes. A 2-yard "passing premium" (a concept which represents the risk inherent in passing plays and shows up as the difference in avg yds/play for pass vs. rush) is rather high, and the indication is that a few more game-planned passes would have been highly effective in deepening the domination and blowing out the score completely. Thinking back, the reasoning behind NOT passing more was likely the slow start that our passing offense was experiencing with Kyle Orton's injured finger and the general learning curve of Josh McDaniel's offense.

Going into this game the expectation of the pundits is that Denver will attempt to re-enact their 200+ yard rushing game of Week 3, but in true amoeba fashion, McDaniel's first game-planning priority will be maximizing his yards per play from that matchup, and that means calling more passes, especially run-based passes like the playaction. With Oakland's strength languishing in the running game, and a "journeyman" QB under center, the expectation is for Oakland to attempt to run a risk-averse running scheme early, using short, high-percentage passes to backs Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden and a high percentage of running calls, probably designed to use clock and shorten the game. I would expect Denver to start the game with a slightly more risky package than we have become accustomed to seeing, in an attempt to setup some fantastic matchups in our running game and against their passing attack.

A huge key to what we will be seeing in this game will be to identify early just how risk-averse McDaniels is in the playcalling. With key injuries on offense and defense, he may not be willing to take any chances against Oakland. On the other hand, he may be comfortable with Knowshon Moreno and David Bruton, among others, and be willing to ride those guys. Confidence in the team right now will go a long ways if they make the playoffs, in terms of adding a dynamic that other teams must prepare for. The good news is that if they pass on that opportunity this week, they may well have another opportunity in the final week of the season to accomplish many of the same goals.

PERSONNEL

Moreno and the rock.

The good news about the likely addition of passes to the Broncos' gameplan is that their running corps could use a break. With Correll Buckhalter likely out, Moreno, LaMont Jordan and Spencer Larsen all playing at significantly less than 100%, and Peyton Hillis struggling to get on the field, this is very good news. Denver may be able to focus on keeping Moreno in the 20- to 23-carry range, where he was most effective in college. The calls for Knowshon to shoulder "a heavy workload" are a bit misplaced. If you can't use him effectively at 18 carries, you start to see diminishing returns afterwards. In college he averaged around 107 yards rushing per game (130 all purpose). He may reach and surpass that in the NFL, but it isn't a viable target to aim for. Focus on keeping him in a good range with his carries and let the rest take care of itself.

Clady vs Seymour, Seymour vs. Clady.

Ryan Clady ain't talking, and Richard Seymour is deflecting criticism of his hair-pulling stunt in Week Three, but for all intents and purposes this is probably a developing grudge match in Broncos-Raiders history. Clady and Seymour first met in 2008 when Seymour disrupted Clady's perfect rookie season with a half-sack in NE's blowout of Denver. When they met again, in Week Three in Oakland, after Seymour got, frankly, dumped by NE, a bit of frustration boiled over into a personal foul and fine when Clady dominated the matchup and caused Seymour to yank his Samson-like locks.

Now, with Clady fighting not only a generally slumping season for the O-Line in general, but his own personal slump within a slump where his expected level of consistent excellence seems just out of reach, and with Seymour needing to prove his professionalism in the face of what is looking like career murder in Oakland, this matchup may very well be one of the best in the game. With Daniel Graham staying in to help Tyler Polumbus, it would not be surprising for Denver to attempt to single Clady up against Seymour in the passing game, a high-risk, very high-reward scenario. Tied 1-1, let Round 3 of the Clady vs. Seymour grudge match begin.

Brandon Marshall vs Nnamdi Asomugha?

21 catches vs. $28.5 million. Pundits are already salivating over the matchup, and they should; it would be a matchup that would pit an immovable object against an irresistible force. Except it probably won't go down that way. To date, 90% of Oakland's coverage in the past two matchups has consisted of Chris Johnson on Marshall, and the results have been a workmanlike, if not effective total of 151 yards and 1 TD. A sizzling-hot Marshall against a slumping Johnson plays right into the game-planning hands of the Broncos, and for what it is worth, Johnson has basically noted that he can't stop Marshall from getting his receptions. "The key is stopping those plays after five or six yards and not letting him get further downfield," Johnson said. "The big ones -- the ones he makes 20 or 30 yards -- those are the ones that hurt you." If the Raiders are smart, they will assign Asomugha to shadow Marshall, and not leave that decision in the hands of the Broncos...

Another starter for Oakland at QB: out of the fire and into the Frye-ing pan?

First thing to note about Charlie Frye: he took a devastating situation and turned it into something positive once before. After being the first player in NFL history to be an Opening Day starter one week and traded the next (from Cleveland to Seattle), he immediately recognized a golden opportunity: the chance to study under Mike Holmgren, a Bill Walsh-descended QBing guru. "I wouldn't take that away for anything. If something happens to you, it makes you hungrier and keeps your eye on the prize as far as getting back on the field." The result is that he took a part of his game to a level he never even knew existed. He learned how to prepare himself, and as a result he has earned a reputation as one of the hardest working players in the Raider's locker room.

That has to be something Frye can build on as he prepares to be the second QB this year to leapfrog JaMarcus Russell for the starting job in Oakland. Bruce Gradkowski had salvaged a shred of respect for his team, and in the process had earned the respect of his teammates. When he went down, it was exactly that last shred of confidence which was threatened with extinction as well. Tom Cable's choice to bypass Russell was an attempt to maintain that thread of team unity, and it might just work.

Frye, who hasn't started a game since Oct. 12th of last year (12-of-23 for 83 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT), which was his only game in the past two years, has been found in the film room, in the gym and in the meetings, and rarely anywhere else. He had taken it upon himself to submit ideas for the offensive gameplan once Gradkowski was promoted to starter, and in the process had forcibly wedged himself into the game-planning session's give-and-take. When Russell's second demotion came down, and Cable announced that Frye would be the starter, within moments Frye had his position coach on the phone to go over the week's gameplan. He came in early the next day with a complete understanding of what it was that Oakland was going to try to do, as well as Denver's perceived strengths and weaknesses.

And while nobody is saying exactly what that plan is going to be, Denver should be playing close attention to how the offense ran under Gradkoswski, because they are going to attempt to do most of the same things. With the team expected to be firmly behind Frye, his biggest challenge may be getting enough of the rust off to be effective. Denver would be wise to bring pressure early and often.

Elvis Dumervil vs. Mario Henderson

Henderson is coming off of a disheartening performance where he allowed three sacks alone, and where his linemates surrendered JaMarcus to the wolves six times, overall. In an overall disappointing season, Henderson has been particularly poor, and his confidence seems decimated. With poor depth on the line, he is at serious risk of being DOOM's plaything in this matchup, and with DOOM in the neighborhood of a couple of fantastic individual achievements, he may be able to generate some momentum that gets out of hand. DOOM got 2 sacks in his first matchup with Oakland, and the Raiders give up a sack on average every 9 passing attempts, to rank near the very bottom rung of the NFL.

On the other side, DOOM has to be excited to see Frye again. The last time they faced off, when Frye was still a Brown, Elvis notched his first three-sack game. DOOM has never recorded more than two sacks a year against Oakland, so he will be shooting to break that trend in this game.

By The Numbers

#20

Look for this number on every Raiders offensive snap. For the Broncos it will be Brian Dawkins, and for the Raiders it will be Darren McFadden. Last week, Redskins safety LaRon Landry made the mistake of not consistently accounting for where #20 was on the field, and McFadden took advantage twice in the first half. Twice McFadden was split out wide and sent in motion, where he beat Landry on slants across the middle, the first time for a whopping 48-yard gain, and the second time for 26 yards. On the afternoon, McFadden caught three for 84, and should be expected to be moved around again to create matchups in space in the middle of the field.

It will be Dawkin's responsibility to close fast and break things up. If McFadden gets the ball in his hands out there, it is absolutely critical to make the tackle, easier said than done.

19-3

Kyle Orton's home record, best in the NFL since the 1970 merger. Kyle Orton needs to just be himself, and the Broncos can start working on the nice playoff bow to put on this present season.

4.5, 3.8, 3.1

That is the average rushing yards per carry for Oaklands top three runners. Lucky for Denver, Cable is too ignorant to use the 4.8, and Al Davis is too senile not to use the 3.1.

Michael Bush is the great secret of the Oakland offense - so great in fact, that even the Raiders don't seem to know about him. He is their only rusher to break 100 yards in the last 13 games. Despite seeing a significantly-reduced workload since the beginning of November, he maintained his average at 4.8, only to find himself without a single offensive touch in the blowout loss to the Redskins. Even the underwhelming fullback Gary Russell got two carries and two receptions. And even though Fargas averages almost 85 yards a game against the Broncos, you can count on McFadden being Al's choice. The insistence of drumming McFadden's low yards per carry into the gameplan, all in the name of "flow," is the antithesis to the Broncos' game-planning mentioned at the beginning of this article. The Raiders are essentially forcing their "passing premium" into the stratosphere, which forces them to take only the highest-risk passing options available, at the worst times. Well done, guys.

142

Number of rushing TDs allowed by the Raiders over the past 109 games, a stretch of futility unmatched in the history of the NFL, and leading to the worst record in the NFL over that same span: 28-81, an epically awful .257 winning percentage.

90 for 902

Number of penalties and penalty yards logged by the Raiders in 2009, with 3 games still to play. After spending the first half of the year playing uncharacteristically sound football, Oakland has imploded as of late, dropping from top ten to 25th in the league. In Washington alone they notched 14 penalties for 118 yards, including a backbreaking personal foul that essentially ended the 10-10 lock they were in. Oakland may be the only place I know of where a completely-collapsed structure can implode.

94-22

The score in Denver's wins against sub-.500 teams this year. My grandma called this "Making hay while the sun shines."

6 for 1000

Moreno is on pace for a 1,000-yd rookie season, and I for one couldn't be happier for him or the Broncos. He is the epitome of what I want the Broncos to look for in a football player - the kind of person who was described thusly by his coach at Georgia, and he meant every word of it: "Knowshon Moreno, I know when you get to watch the kid practice every day and see what he does, it gets you excited. He is a very vibrant guy. He could be a gymnast. You can't hide his enthusiasm for life. He will light up his team with his energy level. He will jump over a guy standing on his feet and score. He has got speed, power and agility. People have to respect his power. If (the defense) sends a guy full-speed to try and get him, Knowshon will make them miss."

If Moreno does acheive 1,000 yds, he will join some good company: 2002 Clinton Portis (1,508), 2000 Mike Anderson (1,487), 1999 Olandis Gary (1,159), 1989 Bobby Humphrey (1,151), 1995 Terrell Davis (1,117).

8,871

Number of consecutive snaps played by Casey Weigmann. An incredible strength and perseverance is required, and he may need that trait in spades as this line attempts to go from having a so-so season, to a terrific postseason.

Previewing the Enemy: Denver Broncos

Rated-R Superstar — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 14:37:54 -0000

Earlier this season, Denver won a topsy-turvy 23-3 game in Oakland. [via www4.pictures.zimbio.com]

Unfortunately for us loyal fans of the silver and black, the season isn't over quite yet. With Bruce Gradkowski out, our already slim chances just became even slimmer. Coming off of a blowout loss at the hands of the Washington Redskins, we next face our hated rival in the Denver Broncos. Denver's real season hasn't even yet started. Sitting at 8-5 and atop the AFC Wild Card, the Broncos in great position to grab a playoff spot. I'll admit that I did in no way see this coming from this Denver squad. They've definitely proven a lot of people wrong as they continue their final push into the playoffs. A familiar opponent to us, let's see what we're up against this Sunday.

Let's take a look at their schedule and see how they've fared so far.

Week 1: @ Cincinnati Bengals -- W, 12-7
Week 2: Cleveland Browns -- W, 27-6
Week 3: @ Oakland Raiders -- W, 23-3
Week 4: Dallas Cowboys -- W, 17-10
Week 5: New England Patriots -- W, 20-17 (F/OT)
Week 6: @ San Diego Chargers -- W, 34-23
Week 7: Bye Week
Week 8: @ Baltimore Ravens -- L, 7-30
Week 9: Pittsburgh Steelers -- L, 10-28
Week 10: @ Washington Redskins -- L, 17-27
Week 11: San Diego Chargers -- L, 3-32
Week 12: New York Giants -- W, 26-6
Week 13: @ Kansas City Chiefs -- W, 44-13
Week 14: @ Indianapolis Colts -- L, 16-28

Wow, the Broncos have really cooled off after a great 6-0 start. Just 2-5 in their last seven games, the Broncos still have good wins against teams like the Cowboys, Patriots, Chargers and Giants. They're no slouch.

Let's take a look at the Bronco offense first.

Pass Offense Rank: 225.2 yards/game; 19th in NFL
Rush Offense Rank: 123.2 yards/game; 12th in NFL
Total Offense Rank: 336.4 yards/game; 19th in NFL
Scoring Offense Rank: 19.7 points/game; 20th in NFL

I bet this guy feels like an idiot now. [via stfusports.files.wordpress.com]

Head coach Josh McDaniels is pretty close to being an offensive genius. A disciple of Bill Belichick's, the 33-year-old McDaniels really knows how to run a team at least offensively. There was controversey before the season started, especially revolving around star wide receiver Brandon Marshall. Still, he's around and there aren't any qualms circling around him. In the offseason, the team waved goodbye to Jay Cutler. It may have been the best thing they've done after all.

Kyle Orton, QB: No, he doesn't have the big arm that Jay Cutler does. No, it's not a problem at all. Coming over from the Chicago Bears in an offseason trade that sent Cutler packing to Chicago, Orton has flourished in Josh McDaniels' system. Orton is completing a career-high 63 percent of his passes and will break a career-high in touchdowns and yards before the season concludes. He's a smart quarterback. He doesn't make mistakes. He can make the play, too. What more do you want?

Knowshon Moreno, HB: A rookie from Georgia, Knowshon Moreno didn't immediately step into the starting role. Lately, he has been getting the bulk of the carries. Moreno has carried it an average of 18.2 times over the past five weeks for an average of 82.8 yards. He has also scored three times during that span. Moreno has pretty much taken over the feature back role, although he won't catch many passes out of the backfield.

Correll Buckhalter, HB: Buckhalter was brought over in free agency from the Philadelphia Eagles and has done a pretty good job this season despite not getting the bulk of the carries. Overall, Buckhalter has posted a 5.3 yards per carry average and has been very reliable carrying the football. Like Moreno, though, Buckhalter isn't a threat out of the backfield to catch the ball having no more than three grabs in a single game in two months.

Brandon Marshall caught an NFL record 21 passes last week against the Colts. [via a.espncdn.com]

Brandon Marshall, WR: What more can be said about Marshall that hasn't already been said? At one point, we didn't even think he'd be a Denver Bronco. Now, he's tearing up the league. Amongst AFC pass-catchers, Marshall is tied for the conference lead in touchdowns (9), is third in receptions (86) and is seventh in yards (1,008). He is probably headed to a Pro Bowl. In case you missed it, last week against the Colts, Marshall had an NFL record 21 grabs for 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It'll be fun to see him matched up against Nnamdi Asomugha.

Jabar Gaffney, WR: Josh McDaniels brought Gaffney over from New England to play in his system in Denver. Gaffney is averaging about 39 yards per game when he does catch a pass as he was shutout in Week 10 and Week 13 each. Still, Gaffney must be accounted for along with the rest of the weapons that go unmentioned during this preview, such as Brandon Stokley. At any given week, one of those these weapons can step up and hurt you.

Eddie Royal, WR: More dangerous in the return game, Raiders fans know all about this speedy little man from Virginia Tech. Last year on Monday night, Royal had a huge coming out party in the opening game. After a great 2008 campaign, this season has been bit of a disappoint for Royal; however, he still makes an impact. As previously mentioned, Royal is a threat in the return game -- both kicks and punts. Not quite as dangerous as someone like Joshua Cribbs of the Cleveland Browns, just ask the Chargers about Royal's prowess.

Daniel Graham, TE: Yet another former Patriot is calling Denver home. With Tony scheffler's status in doubt this Sunday, Graham becomes even more keyed-in on in the passing game. Graham isn't Orton's favorite target or anything, but last week, Fred Davis hurt us with his two touchdown receptions. With all of the guys Orton has to throw to, limit as many of them as you can. Stopping Graham isn't high on the priorities or anything, but just don't let the people who shouldn't beat you hurt you.

Let's shift gears to the Bronco defense now.

Pass Defense Rank: 183.3 yards/game; 2nd in NFL
Rush Defense Rank: 107.4 yards/game; 14th in NFL
Total Defense Rank: 290.7 yards/game; 3rd in NFL
Scoring Defense Rank: 17.7 points/game; 5th in NFL

Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has completely transformed the defense. [via a.espncdn.com]

Man, where do I begin with this defense? Last year, they were outright terrible. Ex-49er head coach Mike Nolan steps in, implements a 3-4 defense with the right personnel and viola. Some no-name defensive linemen Kenny Peterson, Ryan McBean and Ronald Fields have stepped in and played well. At the linebacking core, D.J. Williams and Andra Davis are very solid in the middle. Elvis Dumervil, playing the outside linebacker spot and even defensive end, he has become a sack machine. He leads the entire NFL in sacks with 15. With all of that said, the rushing defense is still just a tad above average despite improvement -- dramatic improvement. The secondary is where the defense shines with the pass defense. The team gets great rush on the quarterback and the defensive backs are very skilled. Veterans Brian Dawkins at safety and Champ Bailey at cornerback lead the defense.

Conclusion: Well, it's quiet simple: Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden and all the rest of you running backs need to be ready to carry the load. With Bruce Gradkowski out and Zach Miller's status in question, it only makes sense to pound the rock. Denver's rush defense is ranked 14th, significantly worse than their pass defense which is only worse than the Jets'. JaMarcus Russell or Charlie Frye -- we're all collectively praying for McDonald's instead of Fasto Burger which can be seen on That '70s Show -- will have a tough time. The young wide receivers are up against a tough secondary and it's just setting up for disaster, really. Again, we're going to have to establish some sort of ground game. Use 'em often and use 'em all with the exception of Gary Russell as he should be used in the flat. I don't know what else to tell you. We could be in for a long day. This could easily turn into a 41-6 rout.

Feel free to leave your predictions or even your own thoughts and ideas about the Denver Broncos and how we can earn a win our fourth win of the season on Sunday.

*-All stats are through Tuesday, December 15, 2009. (Happy 44th, mom!)

Poll

Do you feel more confident in a win, less confident in a win or about the same in a win after reading this preview?

Oakland Raiders Postgame Recap: Redskins 34, Raiders 13

Rated-R Superstar — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 00:32:23 -0000

Bruce Gradkowski tried to get his third win as a starter in the silver and black. [via cdn2.sbnation.com]

Fresh off of a win on the road as 15-point underdogs, the Oakland Raiders (4-8) took on the Washington Redskins (3-9) as underdogs once again. Trying to stay hot behind quarterback Bruce Gradkowski, the Raiders entered today's game 2-1 when he starts with wins over the Bengals and Steelers. Unfortunately, the game was blacked out locally. Banged up, Chris Cooley and Clinton Portis were among the many Redskins out for today's game. Dive in to see how the Raiders fared with the Redskins on a gloomy day at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. A bit of rain was in the air for this one.

Darren McFadden had a nice first quarter catching the ball. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

First Quarter: A pathetic return by Gary Russell of 11 huge yards gave us the ball first. He did, however, make the only key play of the series before a sack by LaRon Landry forced the Raiders to punt the ball to the Redskins. Darren McFadden carried it twice on the opening series and basically went nowhere. Anyway, a 68-yard boot by Shane Lechler set up Washington at their own 20 for their opening drive. A five-yard run by Quinton Ganther was the only real positive play on the series. A sack by Trevor Scott, who has been on fire, and an incomplete pass by Jason Campbell forced a Hunter Smith punt. Johnnie Lee Higgins, who had some room on the return, managed to return it to his own 39 yard line. After Bruce Gradkowski hit Higgins for a nine-yard pass, Justin Fargas fumbled; however, Redskins cornerback Fred Smoot had one foot out of bounds on the recovery. It remained Oakland ball. Gradkowski then hit Zach Miller on a big play, but an offensive pass interference on Chaz Schilens brought it back almost to the original line of scrimmage of the drive. A timeout followed it up. The Raiders couldn't really amount anything after that. Another sack doomed a second consecutive drive and it was Lechler time again. A fair catch was called by Antwaan Randle El and the Redskins had it at their own 22. The defense made some nice plays, specifically Kirk Morrison and Chris Johnson, and a three-and-out forced the Redskins to punt. A big play opened up the next drive for the Raiders, as Gradkowski hit Darren McFadden on a slant for 43 huge yards. Unable to muster anything after that, a field goal by Sebastian Janikowski gave the Raiders a 3-0 lead with just over four minutes still to play in the opening quarter. Faced with a third down, Jason Campbell swung it out to Quinton Ganther on the left side. Busting through, Ganther picked up huge yardage to put Washington into not only Oakland territory, but also field goal range. Once again, the Redskins converted on third down. On the very next play, Fred Davis was hit for a touchdown. After whistled for a 15-yard penalty, the Redskins had to kick from their own 15. A 41-yard return by Gary Russell gave Oakland the ball at midfield. An acrobatic grab by McFadden at the 24 yard line capped a seemingly long first quarter.

Fred Davis found the end zone twice and celebrates with a teammate. [via cdn3.sbnation.com]

Second Quarter: Starting the second quarter, a stupid play call (a give to Gary Russell) cost the Raiders a yard. Zach Miller and Chaz Schilens each made grabs and the Raiders had a goal-to-go from the nine. After a miscue on the give to Justin Fargas, the Raiders hit Zach Miller on third down. He was short, however, but Tom Cable remained aggressive from last week. A fourth down carry and dive by Fargas gave the Raiders a touchdown as they had regained a 10-7 lead early in the second quarter. The rain got progressively worse at this point in the game, as noted by commentator Dick Stockton. Fred Davis, open in the secondary, caught a pass and it was for a good gain into Oakland territory. Back-to-back plays by the Raider defense stuffed Quinton Ganther in the backfield. Richard Seymour and Trevor Scott stopped the run and Kirk Morrison and Tommy Kelly blew the next play up on a screen in the backfield. Needing 12 yards on third down, an offsides penalty by Greg Ellis gave the Redskins five free yards. So, another offsides penalty hurt; however, it didn't hurt as much. Hiram Eugene made a great tackle on Randle El and Washington had to settle for a field goal. Graham Gano, just signed out of the UFL, connected on a 46-yard field goal. We were tied, 10-10, in a pretty evenly matched game with 7:27 left to go in the first half. After a three-and-out, a great 58-yard punt from Lechler set the Redskins up at their own 21. The Redskins didn't get far at all, and some good pressure by defensive linemen Matt Shaughnessy and Gerard Warren forced a punt. Jason Campbell was shaken up after the hit. A couple of stupid calls -- runs up the middle by McFadden and Russell -- brought up a long third down. Nearly intercepted by Reed Doughty on a pass intended for Oakland's Zach Miller, Doughy was flagged for illegal contact. It give the Raiders an automatic first down. On the very next play, an open Miller flat out dropped the ball. It was a good pass by Gradkowski, too, but Miller just let it slip through his hands. Welcome to the show Louis Murphy, as he pulled the Raiders to within two yards of the first down marker at the two-minute warning; however, on the next play, a catch of his was correctly called back on the booth review. The Raiders were forced to punt from midfield. A stupid penalty on the punt called against Hiram Eugene -- not stupid on Eugene's part but rather the referee's -- as Eugene was called for interference when he didn't even interfere. The bench was called for an unsportsmanlike penalty and so the Redskins had it at their own 40. Santana Moss made a 14-yard catch and the Redskins were threatening before the half. Next, a big play to Devin Thomas had Washington really in business. Two plays later, Fred Davis scored his second touchdown of the game to give Washington a 17-10 lead. (Damn, he's on my bench in a fantasy football league.) A holding penalty on the kickoff return set the Raiders up in bad position, and there was just seconds to go before halftime. A couple of runs by Gradkowski picked up some yards, but Oakland needed more with just 16 seconds to go without any timeouts remaining. Almost getting sack, Gradkowski flipped it out to Fargas in the flat and he ran out of bounds with less than 10 seconds to go. An incomplete pass on the next play basically made it impossible for a field goal try; however, Tom Cable decided to go for a field goal without running another play. A 66-yard field goal fell short, and Redskins safety Reed Doughty grabbed it and took off from his own end zone. Mario Henderson grabbed him and slammed Doughty to the ground to end the half. The Redskins had a 17-10 lead. For those of you keeping track, a total of 16 penalty flags were thrown. Yes, this was an ugly game.

After filling in for Bruce Gradkowski, JaMarcus Russell spent a ton of time on the ground. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

Third Quarter: The Redskins started out with the ball at their own 30, and more importantly the lead. A pass interference committed by Tyvon Branch gave the Redskins a fresh set of downs. Michael Huff, who suffered a stinger in the first half, is still out with that injury and being replaced by Hiram Eugene. A couple of incomplete passes had Washington in a third and long situation. A rare blitz by the defense had Campbell sacked back at his own 26 by rookie safety Mike Mitchell. A punt followed that big play. The return by Higgins set the Raiders up in good field position, at their own 44. After going down with a knee injury just before the first half concluded, Gradkowski was out and unable to return. Yes, that means JaMarcus Russell was in -- and playing quarterback, too. Raiders fans everywhere are holding their respective breaths. Needing three years on third down, Russell called a timeout as Oakland was nearing field goal range. Still, they needed a first down if they even wanted to think about a pretty good try being at Washington's 38. A big play conversion to Higgins was followed up by a 10-yard loss on the sack. Ugh, Russell didn't get rid of the ball. Rookie Brian Orakpo brought him down. More stupid play-calling from Tom Cable, the reverse went nowhere. You've already called that play once, Tom. You can't fool the defense like that. An incomplete pass to Darren McFadden set up a 53-yard field goal try for Janikowski. Missing earlier from 66 yards out, this one was much more manageable and Sebastian knocked it through for his second of the day. The Washington lead was trimmed to 17-13 with just under nine minutes to play in the third quarter. The Raiders brought the heat some more on Campbell on the Redskins' next drive, as Stanford Routt nearly got to Campbell. By the way, Routt replaced by the injured Nnamdi Asomugha. Then, on second down, Matt Shaughnessy brought down Campbell for Oakland's third sack of the game. With the third down play coming up short, a good return by Higgins set up Russell and company in good field position just shy of midfield. A second down play resulting in a first down to Zach Miller had the Raiders in Washington territory; however, on the next play, McFadden slips on a run. He still managed to pick up six yards. A pitch that went backwards forced the Raiders to make a play on third down in order to keep the drive alive. Russell found Murphy and the Raiders moved the chains. It's a step forward and then a step backwards for Russell, apparently, as Andre Carter brings him down for a loss. A false start, which didn't occur under Gradkowski, moved the Raiders back five more yards. Another penalty and then another sack totally demolished the drive for the Raiders, and it became third down with 35 yards to go. Is anyone ready for Charlie Frye yet? The punt by Lechler hopped into the end zone, and Washington began their drive at their own 20 with the third quarter almost over with. Almost off of the field, Rock Cartwright made a play on third down for the Redskins and Washington's drive continued. A couple of runs by Quinton Ganther ended the third quarter. The Redskins had a 17-13 lead over three quarters.

Santana Moss and the Redskins ran away in the fourth quarter. [via cdn0.sbnation.com]

Fourth Quarter: Kicking off the fourth quarter was Washington in Oakland territory looking to add onto their four-point lead. Not surprisingly, the quarter begins with two penalties on the Raiders. Routt was called for pass interference -- which was a bad call as Santana Moss had slipped -- and then Howard was flagged for holding. A couple of plays later, the Oakland defense tried to get off the field with Washington tryign to convert a third down needing three yards. Of course, the Redskins picked up the first down with ease on a pass from Campbell to Malcolm Kelly. A touchdown basically kills any chance the Raiders have of winning this game, especially with Gradkowski shelved. An effective screen to Moss set up a touchdown run by Ganther, a Richmond native scoring the first time in his career, and Washington had taken a 24-13 lead with over 11 minutes to play in regulation. It was clearly a great drive by the Redskins. Chewing six minutes up and going 80 yards on 13 plays, you couldn't have asked for more if you were Jim Zorn. The Raiders had the ball back needing two touchdowns and a two-point conversion. In a shocking turn of events, Russell threw a pass that was picked off by LaRon Landry. Why am I still watching the game at this point? I don't know. Campbell to Moss goes for 30 yards, and the Redskins are a touchdown away from blowout city. Some plays later, Ganther's second touchdown of the day put Washington ahead by 31-13 score. Oh, yes, it was all over by then. Russell marched back out there and was sacked. We were all so very surprised. Luckily for us, Carter totally missed the fumble and Henderson pounced on it to keep possession. Blah, blah, blah, the Raiders had to punt without a first down gained; however, Randle El screwed up the punt return and dropped it. Tony Stewart fell on it and Oakland had the ball at midfield. On the very next play, Russell was sacked yet again and this time it was Lorenzo Alexander. That was the seventh sack of the game with five of them coming against Russell compared to only two when Gradkowski was in the game. God, this game couldn't end any sooner. I'll save the dramatics: Russell was sacked on fourth down. Getting Marcus Mason involved some in the fourth quarter, Washington marched down and kicked a field goal to extend their lead to 34-13. Terribly bad went to even worse as Zach Miller went down with an injury. After another useless drive that went nowhere led by the great JaMarcus Russell, the Redskins got the ball back and ran out the clock. Improving to 4-9 are the Redskins and falling to that same record are the Raiders by a 34-13 score.

Little Billy has some explaining to do. [via cdn2.sbnation.com]

The Report Card: I'll give grades to the pass offense, rush offense, pass defense, rush defense and special teams. Of course, you're welcome to give your own grades in the comments.

Pass Offense: D -- Obviously, things were going a lot smoother with Bruce Gradkowski back there instead of the totally inept and awful JaMarcus Russell. Still, we have to grade them both. Gradkowski was a little below average and Russell was awful, so I tried to find the middle ground.
Rush Offense: F -- The rushing offense was absolutely dreadful. On 24 carries, a 2.7 average just isn't going to cut it. Justin Fargas led the way with 21 yards and a touchdown, but that stuff is something that should be achieved in just one quarter and not one whole game.
Pass Defense: D+ -- Jason Campbell had almost a field day going 16-for-28 with 222 yards and a pair of touchdowns. They brought some heat, so that was a good thing but just about the only good thing.
Rush Defense: C -- It was a very average performance by the rush defense with the Redskins averaging around four yards per carry with a couple of rushing touchdowns.
Special Teams: B- -- Janikowski's only miss came from 66 yards. Shane Lechler averaged almost 52 yards per punt. Johnnie Lee Higgins was okay returning punts while Gary Russell was nothing special returning kicks. Overall, it was pretty decent and I guess I couldn't complain about the way special teams played. The coverage wasn't all that bad itself.

My Thoughts and Tidbits: It's quite simple, really. Once JaMarcus Russell came in for the injured Bruce Gradkowski, it all went to hell. Trailing 17-10 at the half, this game was clearly within reach all the way. Charlie Frye should start next week should Gradkowski be unable to go. Next up, we have the Denver Broncos who are 8-5 and leading the Wild Card race in the AFC. This was really rough in the second half. Enjoy your Sunday evening, guys, and try to put this one behind us.

Poll

Weekly Recap Poll: Who was the Oakland Raiders player of the game?

Broncos Thoughts and Musings - Indy Week

Emmett Smith — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:38:06 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

18 days ago: Denver Broncos tight end Daniel Graham catches a short pass before running for a touchdown during the first quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009 in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Browse more photos »

There's nothing quite like back-to-back wins to put a shine into the work in the film room. The glow of the past two wins hasn't faded at all, but the upcoming contest against the Indianapolis Colts is starting to loom large. Before we get into our matchups and needs against the next foe, let's take some time to look back over what we've accomplished. Special teams, the nose tackle position and even raiderology are on today's menu. Let the feasting begin!

The Film Room I - KC Autopsy

A moment of silence for a team that has passed away, out of contention for the season and fighting for respect. It's a tough time to be a Chiefs fans, and I want to thank them for a week of intelligent football talk and good-spirited fun. Nice guys, over at Arrowhead Pride. But the nice guy's team, in this case, is finishing near last (if they don't awaken right now. You couldn't miss that on the tape.

I had mentioned that the game this past weekend, like most games, would come down to how Denver played in the trenches. The Broncos responded with a solid performance by the O-Line, prying open gaping holes more than large enough to pass a running back through. When Ryan Harris stepped out in the early second quarter and Tyler Polumbus replaced him, I wondered for a brief moment if we were seeing a very bad thing but there was no dropoff that I saw. Polumbus seems to have stepped up his game, as has Russ Hochstein. Both improvements are timely - and much needed.

Mistakes - Orton had an uncharacteristically bad red-zone play on the first drive, but he moved them well on the next drive. He was blindsided twice and lost the ball, but let's be real - if the defensive player hits the arm right, every QB loses those. Over his career Orton hasn't tended to that issue, so I'm not worried. I want to see those blindside hits stop, though. Orton was 'burping the baby again, an old and bad habit, but the O-Line doesn't get off scot-free, either. They bear some responsibility for the sacks and the one fumble. They really stepped up when they had to though, and that was the name of the game. They let KC get to the one and held them to a FG. INTs, negative plays, pressure and domination go a long way. They took us to an eighth win.

I've wondered about the progress of Richard Quinn of late mostly because I hadn't had the time to break down the ST work as well as I should. That's being fixed, and the guys on Upon Further Review have been kind enough to help me out. As I result, I've been seeing a lot of good things with Quinn and I'm pleased that he singlehandedly made a huge play on the faked punt. KC must have assumed that since others have caught the Broncos with those kind of plays, it would work again. Here's what Josh McDaniels had to say,

They went to a gadget-type formation and I know that there was a guy leaking out the other way and they had an opportunity to get that ball out there but TE Richard (Quinn) made a heck of a play. I don't know what happens if the ball gets thrown but it probably wouldn't have been too good for us. Whenever you break the formation and have a gadget-type play, we were prepared and we split out with them but you are never sure who they are trying to pick for or who they are trying to spring free. That was a big play in the game because we obviously took possession of the football in their territory.

It wasn't the only big play, either. The Broncos were unstoppable in the running game and despite some errors, still used the pass to score 2 TDs, which would have been enough by itself. The game was over when Cassel's QB rating hit 3.1. There isn't a mercy rule. Perhaps there should be. This was a good reminder of that fact.

The Broncos won despite some sloppy play that won't work in the upcoming weeks. In the final analysis, the Broncos committed too many errors and they can't win against the best if they do. But still, you get a sense of how the team can play, and there is a heck of a team in here. You have to balance the bad with the fact that we're seeing a lot of things getting fixed in the new systems the team has learned. When I go back to what I wanted to see from the team this year, that was at the top of the list. Nice work, guys.

Film Room II - The Special Teams

The emphasis on this week's review was the play of the Broncos' special teams this season. Everyone is in agreement that the STs can play better than they did in the first 10-12 weeks of the season. While there are now some obvious bright spots (David Bruton, Spencer Larsen, Darrell Reid, Darcel McBath), I felt that a major review might be in order. It was a great week to feel that way - wow, what a performance on special teams the Broncos put in place. Huge kudos to MHR favorite Spencer Larsen, who notched a huge 4 special teams tackles and to Darrell Reid, who trailed him with 3. Great job on ST! Eddie Royal looked comfortable and Mitch Berger was a monster - again. I don't know how he avoided the block on that one punt, but I was impressed. Berger has no history of frequently blocked punts; so despite his slower motion, he hasn't let it hurt the team.

How was our kicking game against KC? Take a look:

Extra Points Made-Attempts 5-5
Field Goals Made-Attempts 3-3
Red Zone Efficiency 4-6-67%
Goal-to-go efficiency 2-2-100%

That's the kind of efficient red-zone and ST play that wins games.

Some things are obvious. Royal hasn't had enough room to run on punt returns, mostly due to our tendency to let the offenses get into the 40/40 yard-line range, which lets the teams either punt into the coffin corner or just create a touchback, nullifying Eddie's chances of getting in a good runback. They got over that pattern during the past two games and had two wins. Are they connected? You decide. I'm going to vote yes.

Two names that I wanted to look more closely at this week were Richard Quinn and Russ Hochstein. I recalled Hochstein making a couple of serious errors on ST while we were losing and while I'd heard good things about Quinn's ST work, I hadn't caught him on film enough to develop an opinion one way or the other. that obviously changed in KC - his play on the fake punt was perfect and his blocking on kick returns was excellent as well. Nice to see!

The balance of veterans like Mario Haggan, Champ Bailey, Darrell Reid and Andre' Goodman with younger players such as Bruton, Larsen and McBath seems to have found an area of comfort. Lanes are being filled, discipline has improved, tackling is much better and, just as importantly, we haven't been pinning Royal back in coffin country. This is the first time I've seen us playing the way we need to on special teams in a long time. I can only hope it continues.

Safety in Numbers: It's also obvious that David Bruton was a heck of a 4th-round pickup and that Darcel McBath was a great investment. Over the next 5 years, with those two and Josh Barrett, we're in good shape at safety. There was pre-draft talk of moving McBath to CB if certain teams drafted him - McBath can cover very well and can tackle, too. Denver will keep him at safety, though, and for good reason. He won't replace Renaldo Hill anytime soon, but I love that our chances are that good at when we're covering folks.

The response to the recent rise in short-passing offenses (much like our own) has been a switch to fast, coverage safeties. I believe that McBath can be smoothly moved into the slot currently well-occupied by Renaldo Hill when Hill finally slows. Keep in mind that Hill, too, was a CB/S tweener who played CB during his first 4 years in the NFL. McBath seems to be very much in the same mold - he's also bright, like Hill, and was a team leader in college.

We can also go with two smart, effective covering safeties, and although I will miss Dawk's aggression and leadership when the time comes, Hill is an excellent leader and as mentioned, McBath was also a captain in his own right. I believe that David Bruton has the power to later fill many of B-Dawk's roles, although few will ever do so as well. Bruton was also a defensive captain, a pattern in McDaniels' pickups. Finally, Barrett's ability to cover the best TEs one-on-one and to interchange with Wesley Woodyard when needed is a nickel option that few teams can match. Although everyone, myself included, would love to see an Eric Berry on our team, we can establish safety as a lower-cost, high-return group at any point. The fact that all three have done good things on ST makes me even happier - that's a seventh of the game that we need to win, week in and week out. We're finally starting to win at it with a good mix of veterans and younger players. No surprise, then, that we're back to winning.

By the way, we've scored exactly 70 points in the past two games. Things have changed, and for the better. We still need to improve on our mistakes, but I like the direction things are going in.

raiderology

If I'm Al Davis, which is unlikely in the extreme, I'm having a contract meeting with Bruce Gradkowski's agent tomorrow. Gradkowski is on a one-year (2009) contract for $535,000, and in 2010 becomes a restricted free agent. That is one tough, talented guy and the raiders should get a clue: He's a good option right now and a good backup in the future. When's the last time they had a guy come on and win them games? It's ironic that he's the polar opposite of JaMarcus Russell - smaller and lighter, only 6'1" and 220 lbs, but he's smart, tenacious and can play this game. You don't need to waste a pick in the 1st round - you've got your QB in-house for this year and even next year if you want to make the effort to rebuild the team. The young man earned it. Consider his game against PITT:

Att/Comp Yds YPA TD INT QB Rating
20/33 308 9.3 3 0 121.8

Those are numbers that work for me. He has accuracy issues, no question, and his arm strength isn't what the team would like. I don't think that he's a long-term answer - he's just a heck of a lot better answer than Russell and they can keep him on as a backup when they find someone better. The Raiders love the vertical game too much to have a starting QB that doesn't have the arm for the long ball, but they still need one that has some common sense and drive. Mark Twain mentioned that the problem with common sense is that it ain't. That's been Problem 1 in raiderville for a long time and Russell is a perfect example of why. Right now, Gradkowski is a step up.

The raiders have some good running backs in Justin Fargas and Michael Bush. Darren McFadden fumbles too much, has always had issues with his upright style and injuries; he may mature well, but hasn't shown that consistently yet - so I don't count him. They have a fine young TE in Zach Miller, too. Their receiving corp will be mediocre or worse until they catch onto the fact that running fast is of no use if you can't catch the danged ball. They need a couple of possession receivers badly, preferably veterans who don't need to be bottle-fed. They also need to patch a couple of holes in the O-Line, as in much of it. If they can put together a couple of drafts that actually match their team needs, fine, then they can drop big dollars on a QB. Until then? Gradkowski is fine.

This is one example of how a person's feelings on the theory of team building color their approach to decision-making. I personally believe that you need an offensive line more than any other single factor in football. To me, there's no point in arguing about how to win a Super Bowl until you at least have a team that can contend for their division and I think that you start that with the O-Line and move on from there. The raiders seem to do everything backwards, so this is no shock, but they can buy a few wins for relatively few bucks with Gradkowski and they need to develop a longterm plan for a change.

Speaking of the dead, I found it interesting last week when Nnamdi Asomugha went on record as being against the moribund system that Al Davis has in place of not making defensive adjustments for other teams' systems. Davis stills lives and refuses to die on the theory that you play your own system come drought or flood and you ignore what other teams are doing. We all know how that's been working for Oakland. Since this is a team that we play again soon, I'm content to watch them ignore reality with aplomb, but it's interesting when your best player calls out your system in the media. In other cases, I think that kind of thing smacks of ego, but in this case, it smacks of a legitimate cry for help. One that will be ignored, though, like all the rest.

Concussions (briefly) Continued

The NFL is considering a rule change that involves the running back position. The idea behind it is to prevent the RB from using his head as a battering ram, a style of running that has become increasingly common. Running backs like this maneuver because it permits them to deliver a blow rather than just take them.

I'm torn on this. I'm greatly encouraged by the new guidelines for dealing with concussions, and I support rule changes that will reduce the number of head injuries and simply 'blows to the head', which we now understand to be equally bad or even worse, over the course of time. I recognize the the running backs have a legitimate point regarding this approach - they take so much punishment that it seems harsh to take away one of their few options in return.

However -- running in that fashion is going to increase the number of blows to the head that the athlete experiences. It's really that simple. Research has shown a link between frequent blows to the head, even if they do not induce a concussion per se, and increased brain damage. That's a huge problem - the cumulative effects of those blows are increasing the number of retired players who are experiencing loss of their cognitive faculties. What number of yards makes up for that?

From my admittedly-biased position as a retired doc, I'm in favor of this rule change. Using your head to hit people isn't, well, using your head. I'd like to see alternative techniques taught and coached. I'd like to see an end to the kind of problems that hits like Adrian Peterson's created when he used his head to smash into Detroit safety Louis Delmas. By bending down to where his head was only a foot or so from the ground, Peterson smashed his helmet into Delmas' helmet as Delmas came in to tackle him. It was deliberate, and damaging to both men, if more so to Delmas; the hit left Delmas on the ground. I also would like to see it prohibited to use the head to deliver any kind of hit by any player and would support considering a change in the way that tackling is taught. These changes will not greatly change the way the game is played - just how the players are taught.

I understand that many fans will think that if you change the way the game is taught, it's "not really football" anymore. I'm sympathetic, but let's be real here - no amount of money is worth becoming a walking vegetable in your later years. Demanding that players be willing to trade their own abilities in consciousness for the experience of the NFL is, frankly, barbaric. Yes, it's a tough sport. Yes, it's impossible to prevent all injuries and you shouldn't try. However - dropping some of the gladiatorial fervor in the name of living a normal life beyond football isn't an unreasonable approach. We shouldn't ask anyone to be willing to increase their chances of living with brain trauma just for the chance to be a professional football player -- or for any other sport's sake. I hope that we, as a culture, are willing to move beyond that kind of lower-consciousness belief.

QBs and Ratings

While we're considering the media, consider this from Kerry Byrne at si.com:

16.13 yards per attempt -- This is the number that truly leaps off the stat sheet to those who understand the Cold, Hard Football Facts.

Passing yards per attempt is probably the single greatest individual statistical indicator of success in football, and maybe in all of sports. Teams that win the passing yards per attempt battle win nearly 75 percent of the time and the great quarterbacks almost always have high averages per attempt, from Bart Starr and Johnny Unitas to the greatest winner of all, Otto Graham, whose career average of 8.63 YPA is the best in history. to

So, when you see a number like 16.1 YPA, it pays to investigate a little further. Turns out Brees is just the fifth player since 1960 to average more than 16 yards per pass attempt in a game (min. 20 attempts).

It brings up an interesting point: Many teams - most, in fact - have moved to a NE-style offense with an emphasis on the short pass. That doesn't exclude throwing deep, but it does mean that teams will see more of the short passing game, which will tend to skew that number in the statistics. Since many of the offenses that emphasize the short pass use it much as teams used to use the ground game -- picking up 2-8 years at a time, keeping the clock moving and controlling the ball -- you will see the numbers on yards per attempt lessening. It's still true, however, that yards per attempt can be increased by yards after the catch, and that's an area where the Saints have excelled.

The Broncos are starting to throw deeper passes more often, and experience and comfort level between Brandon Marshall and Kyle Orton is a big factor there. It paid off again, and was that Brandon throwing his TD ball to McDaniels? Nice...so much for Brandon leaving. He likes to talk, but they will open the checkbook to keep him (and Doom).

How many more longer passes? It isn't a vertical game onslaught, but this is from the list of the Broncos top-10 long plays each week:

49 4 3-6-DEN 24 (14:08) K.Orton pass short left to B.Marshall pushed ob at KC 27 for 49 yards (J.McGraw).
19 4 1-10-KC 41 (11:26) K.Orton pass deep left to T.Scheffler to KC 22 for 19 yards (C.Mays).
18 1 1-10-DEN 33 (14:55) K.Orton pass short left to E.Royal to KC 49 for 18 yards (B.Flowers).
17 2 2-6-50 (10:18) C.Buckhalter left tackle to KC 33 for 17 yards (M.Vrabel).

Orton added three plays for 14 yards, two to Marshall, one to Royal. The mid-range game is starting to work better and the running game was money all day long. Then there's the kind of rushing dominance that I hadn't seen in too long. The combination gives us a puncher's chance against anyone, if we can control the line of scrimmage.

Final Note: NTs come Full Circle

Pat Kirwan of NFL.com posted this last week:

3-4 nose tackles are scarce

Any team that plays a 3-4 defense knows that success starts up front with a massive nose tackle that plays over the center's head and forces double teams. In the NFL, 3-4 nose tackles are an endangered species. The Chargers lost Jamal Williams and somehow keep winning. The Jets have dropped three of four games since Kris Jenkins went down. Jason Ferguson of the Dolphins just found he is heading to IR, which leaves Paul Soliai to replace him. All three teams have playoff aspirations, but the lack of a quality nose tackle hurts their chances. So far, the Chargers have adjusted best.

He brings up an interesting point. Increasingly, we are seeing smaller NTs coming in and being effective through leverage and athletic ability -- as well as getting penetration. While it is essential that the NT be able to take up 2 or more blockers, it's not really important that he weight 365 lbs. when doing so. The ability to move other people, great technique and an explosive first step are even more important than size.

Since we are now at 12 teams using the 3-4 in some form full-time and many others that use some hybrid variation at least part of the time, we're not going to necessarily see every team moving to the traditional kind of huge player at NT. Players with skill, stamina and unusual strength and/or leverage as well as a scale-tipping 340 lbs will probably continue to be relatively rare. But as Marcus Thomas (314) has shown in Denver when playing behind Ron Fields (314), as the combination of Travis Johnson (311) and Ogemdi Nwagbuo (303) have shown in San Diego since their massive NT, Jamal Williams (348), went on IR and as Jay Ratliff (304) has shown in Dallas, there is more to the NT position than sheer size. Jason Ferguson comes in at 305, no larger than many 40-front defensive tackles. There's a pattern here.

One of the advantages that Denver has shown this season is that Ron Fields is obviously as good as the commentators who called him a steal believed. Even better, Marcus has shown considerable ability in coming in and handling the NT duties when Fields sits down. Thomas is a serious penetrator who obviously plays by relishing of the chance to compete at this level. If Chris Baker (329) develops this off-season, we may get to see Baker or Thomas showing us their skills at DE - personally, I'd love to see Marcus handling that position, but right now he's the second-best option at NT and a very close second at that. He is also said to really enjoy the position, so perhaps he stays there. An eventual flexible rotation that uses Fields, Thomas and Baker at NT, with Baker or Thomas rotating at DE at times isn't beyond possibility, either. That would be flexible and versatile, hallmarks of the amoeba approach.

Regardless of which one slides over (or whether they do - I'm suggesting an option, not predicting that we'll use it), the fact that we have some solid options in the pipeline at DL speaks well to the way the team will play next season. It also frees up a position in the draft, which always is a comfort. What I'm seeing is that we don't need a NT, thanks to good player evaluation last offseason.

Taming the Colts?

How will we handle Indy? Tough question, since they look like the cream of the league to me right now. If we do, we will do it much as we did against KC, even though Indy is so much better. We need for the running game to keep Peyton Manning off the field. It's the only real way to limit him - he's just too good. We need our coverage to be what it's been the past two weeks - or even better. I don't know if even Champ and Goodman can shut down Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and friends, but for us to have a good chance, they will have to. It will be up to Ryan Clady and the offensive line to handle Dwight Feeney. Giving Orton time to throw and the right holes to our newly-empowered running game gives us the best chance. We will be mixing the zone blocking and gap blocking again - over the past two games, that has really begun to gel, right on time for a run at the wild-card slot.

We can't keep committing unforced errors. I suspect that our game will hinge on that -- too many players have contributed cognitive flatulence by taking stupid penalties this season. If we beat ourselves, we're toast. We need to show that we can play like a playoff team and make them beat us. Indy is a predator - always ready to pounce on the weaknesses a team manifests. We're moving two time zones and Indy is murder at home.

It's our toughest game of the year. I look forward to seeing where we measure up.

Go Broncos!

Previewing the Enemy: Washington Redskins

Rated-R Superstar — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 01:39:28 -0000

It's a Super Bowl XVIII rematch! [via prod.static.raiders.clubs.nfl.com]

Alright, it's not quite a rematch from Super Bowl XVIII when the Raiders smashed the Redskins en route to their third Super Bowl title in franchise history. Nonetheless, this Sunday, the Oakland Raiders (4-8) will look to put together a winning streak as the Washington Redskins (3-9) will be coming to town. Don't let that 3-9 record fool you. This Washington team is better than their record and it clearly showed after taking Dallas, Philadelphia and New Orleans to the wire. They don't lay down and will play hard. With the team 2-1 with Bruce Gradkowski starting, the Raiders look to come away with another hard-earned victory as they did last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers as 15-point underdogs.

Let's take a look at their schedule and see how they've fared so far.

Week 1: @ New York Giants -- L, 17-23
Week 2: St. Louis Rams -- W, 9-7
Week 3: @ Detroit Lions -- L, 14-19
Week 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- W, 16-13
Week 5: @ Carolina Panthers -- L, 17-20
Week 6: Kansas City Chiefs -- L, 6-14
Week 7: Philadelphia Eagles -- L, 17-27
Week 8: Bye Week
Week 9: @ Atlanta Falcons -- L, 17-31
Week 10: Denver Broncos -- W, 27-17
Week 11: @ Dallas Cowboys -- L, 6-7
Week 12: @ Philadelphia Eagles -- L, 24-27
Week 13: New Orleans Saints -- L, 30-33 (F/OT)

Well, this team is certainly interesting. Sitting at 3-9, this team could easily be 6-6 or even better. We will have to bring our "A" game, of course, if we want to secure a victory on our home field this Sunday.

Let's check out the Redskin offense first.

Pass Offense Rank: 220.2 yards/game; 18th in NFL
Rush Offense Rank: 101.0 yards/game; 22nd in NFL
Total Offense Rank: 321.2 yards/game; 21st in NFL
Scoring Offense Rank: 16.7 points/game; 26th in NFL

With stars Chris Cooley and Clinton Portis out, others must step up for the Redskins. [via cache.daylife.com]

If you recall, the Redskins offense was the subject of some controversy or what not concerning head coach Jim Zorn. Well, he gave up his play-calling duties to assistant Sherman Lewis. Since then, the offense has performed better. Who is the leader of this Redskins offense? I really don't know to be honest with you. Let's look a little bit into their personnel.

Jason Campbell, QB: Many people questioned Campbell's status as the quarterback this season. He was even benched in favor of veteran Todd Collins earlier. To me, Campbell is actually a pretty solid quarterback. He isn't going to set the world on fire or anything, but he can still hurt you. Campbell is completing 66 percent of his passes this season even if they are "dinks and dunks" most of the time. With 15 turnovers and 15 touchdown passes, Campbell's ratio isn't all that great. He has been sacked three or more times in five games. Obviously, getting some pressure on him would be nice.

Rock Cartwright, HB: Rock is solid, just like a rock. (Ha, get it?) If you want him to be the running back, he can. If you want him to be the fullback, he can. He'll even run back kicks and run down there on punt returns. He is a threat out of the backfield to catch passes. A somewhat physical runner, Cartwright doesn't really stand out in terms of either his speed or his strength. Cartwright has stepped up for the injured Clinton Portis (concussion), who just put on injured reserve. Also on injured reserve is Portis' backup Ladell Betts, so the Redskins are thin at running back.

Quinton Ganther, HB: Ganther, just in his second year out of Utah, is someone I just don't know too much about. Essentially moving up from fourth on the depth chart to splitting time with Cartwright, Ganther was mildly successful against the Saints last Sunday with 46 yards on just 8 carries. The week before that against the Eagles, Ganther had 32 yards on just 5 carries. We may see more of him against the Raiders with him averaging 5.8 yards per carry over the past few weeks.

Santana Moss, WR: The pint-sized and speedy Moss is Washington's leader in receptions (49), yards (642) and touchdowns (3). He is what you would call the team's go-to-guy, but really the Redskins have a lot of guys they go to. Still, Moss provides that veteran presence and can't be overlooked. Maybe this would be one of the few times where I wouldn't mind Nnamdi Asomugha moving around from receiver to receiver, which he will at least a little bit.

Wide receiver Devin Thomas had two touchdowns last week against the Saints. [via a.espncdn.com]

Devin Thomas, WR: The second-year receiver out of Michigan State, Thomas is a young man seemingly improving with each game of late. He has even been prominent in the kick return game of the past two weeks. Still, he has shined brightly in the passing game over the course of those two same weeks. After a decent game against the Eagles, he broke out for 7 receptions, 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week against the Saints.

Antwaan Randle El, WR: The ex-Steeler is still in Washington. Randle El, who is very durable having missed only one game in his eight-year career, he is a dependable target for Campbell despite only averaging 3.3 receptions per game. I believe this is more in part to the number of targets the Redskins like to use. The team isn't confined to both Moss and Rande El as you will see here in a minute in this preview.

Fred Davis, TE: After Campbell's favorite target Chris Cooley went down for the year, someone had to step up. Unknown at the time to Washington, it'd be his replacement. Fred Davis. Since October 26, Davis is averaging 7.5 catches and 45.7 yards with finding the end zone three times, including two times in his last three games. As most tight ends are, he is a threat in the red zone and Campbell has no problem looking his way.

Let's shift gears to the Redskin defense now.

Pass Defense Rank: 190.2 yards/game; 5th in NFL
Rush Defense Rank: 121.8 yards/game; 24th in NFL
Total Defense Rank: 312.0 yards/game; 9th in NFL
Scoring Defense Rank: 19.8 points/game; 14th in NFL

Linebacker London Fletcher leads Washington's better-than-you-think defense. [via cdn.bleacherreport.com]

Defensive coordinator Greg Blache and his Washington Redskins actually have a pretty solid group defensively operating out of the 4-3. You may not think so because of their 3-9 record, but I'm sure people don't think highly of our defense since we're just 4-8. Anyway, the Redskins are particularly strong against the pass. Safety Reed Doughty has quietly had a good year and young LaRon Landry is solid at his spot as well. A pretty solid group of cornerbacks are headed by veteran Fred Smoot, who is in his ninth year out of Mississippi State. The leader of the defense is the man in the middle, London Fletcher, who leads the team with 109 tackles. Brian Orakpo, the 13th overall pick in the 2009 draft, plays on the outside along with veteran Rocky McIntosh. Defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth has been in and out of the lineup with injuries this season. He signed a monster contract in the offseason, but the Redskins' defense is only ranked 24th against the rush. His presence is desperately needed for Washington. Haynesworth is listed as questionable as of right now. At right defensive end, Andre Carter has nine sacks and deserves some Pro Bowl recognition for his great play. Again, this is a very solid defense and will do everything it can to keep their offense in this game late on the road.

Conclusion: The thing that sticks out defensively about the Redskins is their 24th-ranked rush defense. With Haynesworth questionable, he probably won't be playing on every down. Justin Fargas, Michael Bush and Darren McFadden should have success as long as head coach Tom Cable keeps giving them the rock. I believe of the first 28 plays against the Steelers, 18 of them were rushes. That is a similar ratio that I hope to see this week considering how strong Washington's pass defense is. Speaking of the pass, the breakout of Louis Murphy was something else, especially with Darrius Heyward-Bey out. It's nice to see someone step up at the receiver spot. Chaz Schilens even found the end zone for the first time in 2009 and Todd Watkins caught a key pass in the final drive. Johnnie Lee Higgins came through for us as well. Wide receivers against Pittsburgh caught 12 balls for 248 yards, both of which I'm sure were season-highs for our club. We're definitely going to need that against the Redskins' formidable pass defense against the previously mentioned Smoot and also Carlos Rogers and ex-Raider DeAngelo Hall. This may be a good test for Bruce Gradkowski as well, even though he did perform well against two really good defenses already in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. I think we're ready for this.

Feel free to leave your predictions or even your own thoughts and ideas about the Pittsburgh Steelers and how we can earn a win our fourth win of the season on Sunday.

*-All stats are through Tuesday, December 8, 2009.

Poll

Do you feel more confident in a win, less confident in a win or about the same in a win after reading this preview?

More confident

161 votes

Less confident

81 votes

About the same

128 votes

370 votes | Poll has closed

Half Time Thread: 10-6 Steelers: The Raiders Brought Their A-Game in the First Half:

saint — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 19:38:14 -0000

Wow, Raider fans, we do have an offense...It just isn't named Darren McFadden...Or JaMarcus Russell...Or Javon Walker...Or Darius Heyward-Bey...Nope, it is named Johnie-Lee-Fargas-Miller-Gradkowski!

Bruce is having a fantastic game under Center. He is 7/9 for 86 yards and a very nice 106.5 passer rating.

Against the 3rd best run defense Justin Fargas has rushed for 42 yards on 9 carries while Darren McFadden has only 19 yards on 8 carries. McFadden is having trouble reading blocks and is definitely my 3rd option in the 2nd half. We need to use him on wheel routes, kick returns and in the slot until he learns how to read blocks.

I like the 18 rush to 10 pass ratio, this is how it needs to be.

Johnnie Lee Higgins looks like he can be the first Raider receiver to reach 100 yards this season.

Go Raiders

As I Look For Hope: I See None: The Oakland Raiders Are Terrible

saint — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 21:24:03 -0000

More photos » by Mike Stone - AP

Oakland Raider Head Coach Tom Cable ponders how to NOT RUN THE BALL!!!(AP Photo/Mike Stone)

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Tom Cable can say that he is seeing improvement until he is blue in the face, I am NOT buying what he is selling anymore.

He talks about Gradkowski's passes being a foot here or there away from being complations as if that is some great thing. The reality is that his starting quarterback is missing throws at least a foot, when good-great quarterback miss, if at all by inches.

After this last loss he said that the big plays were JUST some players missing their assignments. JUST SOME PLAYERS MISSING THEIR ASSIGNMENTS!?!?! Does Ray Lewis miss assignments? How about Patrick Willis?

I am sick and TIRED of the bar being held so low that a quadrapalegic with hydraulics on his wheelchair could leap it 9 times out of 10!!!

THIS IS THE NFL!!! Either perform or get to the bench!!! PERIOD!!!

Darren McFadden is NOT as bad as his numbers and we all know that Michael Bush is a 1,000 yard back on nearly ANY other team, yet, neither will even sniff their potential in the current Oakland Raider system.

How is it, TOM, that you pass more than you run? Even when you have the lead?

There is NO accountability for Tom Cable's dumb play calls. NONE!!!

Some will argue that teams are stacking the box, or that we need to pass to set up the run. I say, BALLDERDASH!!! What if the Cleveland Browns were scared of an 8 man front so they only gave the ball to Jim Brown 7 times a game!?!?! GIVE ME A BREAK!!!

This franchise is completely broken. The mystique is still there, but the winning has left the building!

Horse Tracks 11/29/09 - McDaniels recounts his side of trash-talking episode with Shaun Phillips to ESPN

Douglas A. Lee — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 14:15:45 -0000

ESPN - Denver Broncos coach Josh McDaniels tells his side of trash-talking incident - Chris Mortensen & Ed Werder
"I wasn't out there trash-talking their players, going through their drills. This guy has been doing this since I've been in the league and, because they won, he takes the liberty of telling his side of the story. I didn't swear at him or threaten him. What I actually said was, 'I've heard the same thing from you for four or five years now, and when I was in New England, we owned you.'"

DB - Davis, Sharpe Named HoF Semifinalists - Zach Eisendrath

DPP - Sharpe, Davis semifinalists on Hall of Fame list - Lindsay Jones
"Thursday against the Giants, Bruton made two solo special-teams tackles, bringing his season total to 10, tied for the team lead with fellow rookie Darcel McBath."

DPP - Davis savors fresh start with Broncos - Lindsay Jones

DPP - Dawkins puts it in perspective - Dave Krieger

DPP - Broncos just kept believin' - Jeff Legwold

LTC - Veteran Stokley content with his role on team - Brian Howell

INDT - Broncos: Remember these guys? - Hunter Ansley

DPP - Want to win? Run the ball - Mike Klis

CSG - Broncos WR Stokley reaches out to injured college player - Frank Schwab

CP - Dawkins talks, sets example - Geoff Mosher

DP - McDaniels now a mouth that roared profanity - Mark Kiszla

DP - A full deck of dining delights - Penny Parker
"John Elway hosted a host of managers from his Elway's Cherry Creek restaurant in his sweet suite Thursday at Invesco Field at Mile High."

AP - Falcons kicker Elam mired in baffling slump - Paul Newberry

DP - Dave Logan a Mullen marvel - Woody Paige

AFC West News

SDUT - Balance key to Chargers' five straight wins - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Chargers vs. Chiefs: Five things to watch - Jay Posner

SDUT - Like Padres, Chargers took time to rev up - Nick Canepa

ESPN - Chiefs make a roster move - Bill Williamson

KCS - Chiefs’ attitude sunnier after stormy Johnson exits - Kent Babb

KCS - Cassel, Haley's growth bigger than score - Jason Whitlock

OT - Oakland Raiders' Darren McFadden isn't as advertised - Steve Corkran

NFL News

PFW - Glazer family's patience with Morris wearing thin - Dan Parr

NFL - Roethlisberger won't play after concussion, giving Dixon start

NFL - Colts DE Freeney doesn't travel, will miss game at Texans

FH - UFL's Jim Haslett Contacted for NFL Job - Anthony Olivieri

NFL Opinion

NFP - Sunday at the Post - Mike Lombardi

FOX - Success rare for this crop of rookie coaches - Alex Marvez

NFP - Weekend Notes: Remember Us? - Matt Bowen

DPP - December marks the time for closers - Jeff Legwold

FH - The Once-Over: Week 12 - Knox Bardeen

FOX - Countdown: Previewing Sunday's Week 12 games - John Czarnecki

NYT - With Help From Friend, Young Connects Again - Karen Crouse

USAT - Clutch, aggressive Jaguars playing way into race - Jarrett Bell

Knowshon Moreno & The Tiki Barber Slip 'N Slide Index

TJ Johnson — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 16:30:11 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

28 days ago: Denver Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno, right, runs before a tackle by New York Giants safety Michael Johnson, left, during the first quarter of an NFL football game in Denver, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

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Is Knowshon Moreno prone to fumbling?

This is a question I've been asked many times in the last several weeks. Given that the Broncos invested the 12th overall pick in this year's draft on Moreno, it's an important question. Moreno--barring injury--is going to be this franchise's primary running back for several years to come. You want this guy dropping jockstraps and jaws, not footballs.

So where does Moreno stack up? Does he fumble more than the league average? More than other rookies? More than other great Broncos running backs?

We can answer all of these questions with a handy little contraption called the Tiki Barber Slip 'N Slide Index.

Tiki Barber, for those that may not remember, was known as a fine running back for the New York Giants until his early retirement after the 2006 season. But he was also known for a few other things. First, he liked to criticize his former teammates and coaches--Eli Manning, specifically. Second, the Giants won the Super Bowl the year after he left. Third, and most important for our purposes, Barber was well-known for having trouble holding onto the football. In fact, his problems were so severe that during one 4-year stretch between 2000-2003, Barber put the ball on the ground 35 times. He was truly the Slip 'N Slide of NFL running backs. So this Index is named in honor of him.

The Tiki Barber Slip 'N Slide Index is simply the number of fumbles as a percentage of total carries. It's quite easy to follow. However, there are two things you´ll want to know about this index. First, we use Fumbles as opposed to Fumbles Lost, because it's a better predictor of a tendency towards fumbling, since recovering fumbles is almost completely random. And second, we are presenting the stat as a ratio instead of a number so that we can compare running backs with more carries to running backs with less. Just as it's silly to say one quarterback has more touchdowns than another because they have more attempts, it's both incorrect and insidious to suggest another running back fumbles more often if they have more carries. Thus, the stat has to be a ratio.

Let's walk through a simple example using the man himself, Tiki Barber:

Career Carries: 2,217

Career Fumbles: 53

Career Fumbles Lost: 22

Tiki Barber Slip 'N Slide Index: 2.39% (53/2,217)

Frequency: Every 42 carries

So Barber fumbled the ball in his career 2.39% of the time, or on average, every 42 times he carried the ball. This may not seem like a lot, but it really is, as we will soon see. Lucky for Barber, he fixed his fumbling problem late in his career. During the bad four-year stretch mentioned earlier, this ratio was a whopping 3.64%. This was every 27 carries.

Now we can perform the same calculation with Knowshon Moreno. Keep in mind that this is a relatively small sample size, but it's not so small that we can't compare it to other running backs. Again, this is the reason for the ratio. Here is the up-to-date statistics for Moreno through Week 12.

Total Carries: 161

Total Fumbles: 4

Fumbles Lost: 4

Tiki Barber Slip 'N Slide Index: 2.48%

Frequency of Fumbles: 40 carries

League Averages

One way to judge Moreno is to compare him to the rest of the league. Here are the league averages over the last two seasons, along with 2009 (through Week 11). I restricted my analysis to those players with a minimum of 100 carries.

The League Index varies between 1.16% and 1.39%. Given Moreno´s Index of 2.48%, we can reasonably conclude he´s turning the ball over more often than he should be--when judged against the league.

Rookie Averages

But don't all rookies struggle with the learning curve of the NFL? The kinds of carries that they get in space during their college careers simply don't exist in the NFL. Therefore, wouldn't it make sense that running backs fumble more often during their rookie season?

We can answer that question as well. Here are the Indexes for the rookie seasons of running backs with at least 100 carries from 2004 until 2009 (excluding Moreno,of course) :

It appears that, on average, rookie running backs tend to fumble at the same rate as the rest of the running backs in the league. Certainly, there are some interesting rookie exceptions like Darren McFadden, Adrian Peterson, and Beanie Wells, but most rookies seem to do a decent job. From this list, we can maintain with confidence that Moreno has been fumbling at a rate higher than the average rookie. However, there certainly have been rookies who have fumbled more in the past several years.

Lessons from Davis, Portis, and The Marine

Despite Moreno's numbers, one shouldn't be overly concerned. That's because we are probably judging him a little too early. His current number of carries (161) averages out to approximately 14.6 carries per game. If he keeps up this pace, he'll have 234 total carries for the season. If he doesn't fumble during this time, his Index will drop from 2.48% to 1.71%. Even if Moreno fumbles once during this stretch, the Index will drop to 2.14%. Neither is perfect, but manageable.

But more important than this is what we can learn from former successful Broncos running backs of the recent past. Here are the TBSNS Indexes of the rookie seasons of Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, and Mike Anderson when compared to their entire careers.

For all three, their fumble stats tended to drop as they continued through their careers. In fact, these Broncos greats aren't uncommon. I found the same trend with others like Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, Brian Westbrook, Jamal Lewis, and Fred Taylor. After their rookie seasons, they tended to fumble less often, eventually fumbling at rates closer to the league averages we've seen.

So if we looked at Terrell Davis during his rookie year, we might say he had a tendency to fumble more often than he should. But by the end of his career, there was no such worry. The same was true of Clinton Portis. Mike Anderson didn't fumble as often as Davis and Portis, but the trend was still there.

In other words, Moreno has time to regress to the mean. Or better.

And, like Barber, he's got coaching. In Barber's case, Tom Coughlin taught him to hold the ball with his arm higher and tighter in a curl position. This made his arm stronger and his fumbles disappeared almost overnight. For Moreno, things aren't nearly as dramatic (he had no fumbling history in college), but if a problem does develop, it can be fixed by Bobby Turner and Josh McDaniels.

We all saw the other night against New York how special a runner Moreno can be (for a fine analysis of Moreno's yards/carry and comparisons to other backs, check out legendarywalton's excellent post here). A runner like this doesn't come around every year. And Russ Hochstein's knee won't be waiting for him after every goal-line run.

Go Broncos!!