SB Nation - Quentin Groves

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:30:18 -0000

about 1 month ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall is stopped by Washington Redskins cornerback DeAngelo Hall during the third quarter of the NFL football game, Nov. 15, 2009 in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Here we are again, with another loss to contend with. This one is worse than the last two, because this one looked like a sure victory when we were marking off W's and L's on the schedule. Of course, if Kyle Orton didn't get hurt, it probably is a W, and the Broncos are still sitting on a 1-game lead over the Chargers. Since that's not the way it played out, we have to do the other thing.

We'll get into the details, from soup to chocolate cake, and make some sense of all this, because that's what we do here. We'll explore what happened, we'll find some things to feel positive about, and we'll have some fun. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!!

1. There's a certain interconnectedness to a football game, and its outcome, among all phases of the game, and all 45 active players. I've talked about this many times before, and John Bena called the loss a team effort in his postgame writeup. I would call this a team effort whose final score is mostly attributable to the poor second half play of the offense, and mostly, of Chris Simms.

What I mean by that is this. Over the first 6 games of the season, the Broncos led the league in scoring defense. They were especially strong defensively in the second half of games. That trend has been turned on its head the last 3 weeks. The last two weeks, especially, I believe that the main reason why the defense struggled in the second half was that they were on the field for too many plays, due to the struggles of the offense. Each side of the ball needs to help the other. The Broncos have been getting shut down on offense, and worn down on defense, and it's been difficult to watch.

Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth were going on and on Sunday night about how the Colts led the NFL in scoring defense heading into this week. If you've watched the Colts, they don't even have a particularly good defense, if there is any chance you can run the ball against them. They have allowed so few points because they deliberately shorten the game when they're on offense, and because once they get a lead, the strength of their defense comes to the fore. They rush the passer well with four men, and drop 7 men into cover-2. If you stay out of situations that are favorable to Indianapolis, you can gash their defense.

This is what has been happening to the Broncos as well. Remember - in the first 6 games, the offense did its best work in the second half of games. They possessed the ball, they took their time, and they methodically controlled the games. When the defense was on the field, they were fresh, they substituted frequently, and they made plays to get off the field quickly.

Kyle Orton played great in the first half Sunday, just as he'd played very well in the first half of the Pittsburgh game, (outside the one interception). For all the hollering that went on about his lack of deep throwing, he threw a couple very nice deep balls for TDs to Brandon Marshall, and he just barely missed another to Eddie Royal. That opened the field vertically. He also did a very nice job on a few bootleg throws to Tony Scheffler, and a crossing pattern to Marshall. Those plays stretched the field horizontally.

The Broncos had Washington where they wanted them. Remember, they moved the ball on the possession where Correll Buckhalter fumbled, and they had the 17-play drive at the end of the first half, to take the 3-point lead. The Orton injury changed the entire complexion of the game. Simms simply couldn't complete a pass, and didn't seem to know where to go with the ball, and a lot of good work by Knowshon Moreno was wasted.

Most teams will struggle when they lose their starting QB. That's a function of the fact that there aren't 32 good QBs in the NFL, let alone 64 of them. I came into this game thinking that the Broncos are in good shape with Simms, if they needed to use him. I hope that he shows better if he has to play against San Diego, after a week of first-team reps. I still do tend to think that Simms can play.

You hate to have a game get away from you because your backup QB couldn't cut it. The only thing worse would be if two games got away for that reason. I expect that Josh McDaniels will have Simms ready to go next week, and that the gameplan will play to his strengths, if they need to use him.

You have to be careful not to let one game unduly affect an evaluation of a team. All the time, teams lay eggs in games, and lose (or nearly lose) to teams they should blow out. Look no further than New Orleans on Sunday, who seemingly tried to lose to St. Louis. Not to say that Dallas should have blown out Green Bay, but they shouldn't have gotten dominated like they did, either.

There's a lot of Chicken Little stuff going on here, and the one thing that will stop it is a victory against San Diego next week. Yes, I know that the Chargers are on a winning streak and the Broncos are on a losing streak. Remember when the Broncos had won 6 in a row, and the Ravens had lost 3 in a row? The Broncos can beat San Diego, which we know, because they already have this season. If they win that game, they'll re-take command of the division, with a one-game lead, and a sweeping of the head-to-head matchup.

2. In the big-time matchup of the week, the Colts got a win against the Patriots, and on Monday, Bill Belichick is being blamed by everybody who doesn't like him personally (AKA just about everyone). The fact is, Belichick has never curried favor with the media, and reporters tend to be critical of you every chance they get, if you don't pay them their due deference.

Joe Biden could tell you all about how that works. He never trusted the media after their treatment of the death of his first wife and daughter in 1972, and it always hurt him later, particularly in his two Presidential bids. John McCain and Barack Obama both have very deft touches with the media, and longstanding strategies of providing them a lot of access, and it was no accident that both were the nominees of their parties in 2008. If you're going to be a public figure, there's a clear benefit to cultivating relationships with reporters. The thing is, not everybody has the stomach for it, and Belichick is one of those guys who doesn't. Brett Favre benefits immensely from his relationship-building efforts, to the point of it being sickening most of the time. I heard somewhere recently that Favre spends hours with the TV guys on Saturday afternoons, as long as they want to hang out, and they really can't help but love on him.

Back to the lecture at hand, I would have done exactly the same thing as Belichick in that game situation, in going for it on 4th and 2 from his own 28. Why did he do it? Because he was pretty close to certain that he would lose the game if he punted, that's why.

Let's say you go by the book, and punt. Over all 2,293 punts in the NFL in 2008, the average net change in field position was 39.53 yards. The right call, if you ask Peter King, or others, was to punt, and give Manning the ball at his own 32, with about 2 minutes, and all 3 timeouts left. I say that that is choosing to lose the game in a way that will leave the coach blameless, as far as the idiot media is concerned. Well, he trusted his defense, and he played the percentages; it's not the coach's fault. Except he didn't play the percentages.

First of all, let's get this nonsense about trusting your defense dispensed with. You should always trust your defense. Former defensive players like Tedy Bruschi, Matt Bowen, and old friend Tom Jackson love this line of thinking, but it's utter horse (manure). You should only trust your defense if you think they are likely to make the stop, and win you the game. If you think they aren't, then it's a fool's errand to trust them. You say to them, hey, realistically, you guys probably weren't going to stop Peyton Manning, which really doesn't make you much different from any other team's defense. There is no room for blind machismo, or making a statement, or worrying about hurt feelings; this is about winning football games, nothing more.

I didn't spend a great deal of time on it, but I took a look at every game recap for the Colts since 2005. (I think 4 ½ seasons is a reasonable sample size.) Since then, including the postseason, Manning has had the ball late in the game, trailing, on 19 occasions which I counted. He came through to either tie or take the lead 15 times, which is a 79% success rate. (In 2007, he was 1-for-4, which was pretty aberrant for this sample. Two of those misses were against the strong 2007 Chargers, whom the Colts struggled to pass-protect against.)

Here's the deal. Statistically, you have a 60% chance of picking up 4th and 2, but that probability is almost certainly greater, due to the fact that you have an outstanding offense, and the Colts have an average-at-best defense. If I were Belichick, I would have put my conversion probability at 70% for that play. That same source says that an average team returning a punt, given those field position- and time parameters, scores 53% of the time. We already know Manning succeeds 79% of the time, because he's one of the greatest QBs ever.

You can choose to probably win, or you can choose to probably lose, in one moment. What do you choose?

Belichick chose to probably win, and came up on the side where the probable outcome wasn't the actual outcome. Serious poker players know exactly what I am talking about here. Sometimes, you play the hand correctly, and you go all-in with the best cards, but you lose anyway. It's a fact of life. You accept it, and you don't complain about it, because you know you made the right call, regardless of the outcome. The next time you're faced with the same situation, you do the same thing, again, because it was the right call.

When I got home Monday night, all I saw and heard was TV talking heads second-guessing the decision. Stuart Scott pretty much butchered the stats, but he actually cited our friends at AdvancedNFLStats.com. The shockingly anti-intellectual Steve Young promptly claimed that the stats aren't legitimate (except they are). We got to hear from Tedy Bruschi how he'd feel as a defensive player on the Patriots, as if that's germane to anything at all. Trent Dilfer's blood boils when he hears the "other side" of the argument, AKA the correct side. Blah, blah, blah. (Sorry, brief possession by an ex-wife-like-entity again.)

Just imagine the reaction if Kevin Faulk had made the 2 yards. The stories today would have been about the stones on Belichick, and how he is such a great coach to make a risky call. It would be like Mike Shanahan going for 2 in the Hochuli Game last season. (Shanahan correctly thought that was his best chance to win. He felt he had a better-than-50 percent chance of scoring the conversion, and he knew that he had a 50% chance of winning a coin toss, and about a 98% chance that the Chargers would score in overtime, if he lost the toss.)

I'm no great defender of Belichick, the man, but when he's right, he's right. If it's an average QB, and an average offense, you might punt in that situation, but against Manning, that's always going to be the wrong call on 4th and 2. Once again, Belichick is smarter than the average bear, and smarter than every member of the football MSM.

3. Information From My Eyes - Broncos at Redskins

a. All four deep throws Orton made were good throws. Eddie Royal misjudged the one incompletion, and Brandon Marshall got out-fought by DeAngelo Hall on the second, but both were definitely well-thrown balls.

b. That fake field goal was a debacle, but I don't personally blame Mike Priefer. My goat on that play is Darrell Reid, who was telling Marcus Thomas to cover Mike Sellers, while he decided to contain the left edge of the offense, as the play flowed right. Alphonso Smith caught some initial blame, but I disagree there. He was in deep center field, and flowed with the play, like anybody would coach him to. Who knew Hunter Smith could throw back across the field?

c. Ryan Clady got beat badly once on Sunday. That doesn't happen often at all, obviously. That's the first sack he allowed that I would say was fully on him.

d. From the department of good news, Matt Prater doesn't seem to be having a second-half slump this season.

e. I was very impressed with Knowshon Moreno's vision and quickness on Sunday.

f. I've already made my evaluation of Mitch Berger, so everybody knows where I am at on that one. I saw somewhere where Frank Schwab, some beat reporter, speculated that Mitch Berger's 65-yard punt might save his job. If a kick that went about 42 yards in the air, and rolled 23 on the ground can do that, something absurd is going on.

g. I had a busy workday Monday, which set my schedule back, and is unfortunately going to preclude me from taking the time to do Between The Lines this week.

On watching the game a second time, though, it occurred to me that the bulk of Washington's success in running the ball was on zone-blocked plays. As I think about it, the Broncos haven't faced much of that this season at all; really just Oakland, who does it crappily. That's really something to work on, because the lateral movement seemed to unsettle the Broncos defensive line.

h. D.J. Williams got blocked a lot, and took a lot of bad angles. Again. This is getting to be an annoying habit.

i. Andra Davis continued to be a bright spot. He is a terrific blitzer and has a great sense of timing for delaying his rush. His missed tackle on that Devin Thomas catch and run in the 4th quarter was bad, but he otherwise graded out very well.

j. On a painful second pass watching the game, Chris Simms lacked timing with the receivers, as much as anything. Every throw was a little late. It seems like Orton may be able to play next Sunday, but if it's Simms, I hope a week's worth of reps will help him build some timing.

4. Information From My Eyes - Other Games:

a. I was really curious to see the Buffalo-Tennessee game, and I recorded the Short Cut overnight, and watched the game Monday evening. Why would I care about this game? Well, the two teams played in the Hall of Fame Game, way back when it was still warm in Cleveland, and my girlfriend at the time called at halftime to break up with me.

In that game, the Bills couldn't block Tennessee, and the Titans looked like a Super Bowl team. So, I wanted to watch Sunday's game, because I wanted a good sense of where these two teams are. Tennessee probably isn't going to make the playoffs, after starting 0-6, but they've righted their ship, and they'd be trouble if they did make it. Their defensive line is still nasty, and I continue to be impressed with the job William Hayes is doing in replacing Jevon Kearse.

b. On the other side, the Bills still are below average on their offensive line. Their two highly-drafted rookies, Eric Wood, and Andy Levitre, particularly struggled, as they both had in the preseason game. Levitre even ended up playing some LT, due to an injury, and he really struggled outside. Wood got pushed backwards consistently in the passing game, and he's been generally pretty good as a rookie. The Bills need to shore up their offensive line in the offseason, and I am sure their new head coach will make that a priority, if they hire a competent one.

c. I am ready to make a pronouncement. If Vince Young couldn't run, he'd be the second coming of Trent Dilfer. He really isn't much of a thrower of the ball, and he leaves too much air under his throws. You can get by with him in a run-heavy offense, which is what the Titans really are.

Because he can run, he adds a useful element, and the team is really dangerous on option plays, and QB runs. His running ability can dictate that teams play man-to-man defense, and keep a guy out of coverage to spy him. Really, the Titans are back to being the 10-6ish team they were in 2007. I think they'll ultimately decide to stick with Young for next season, and look to build up the interior of their offensive line, and their back 7 on defense.

d. It seems like forever ago, but I did watch the Chicago-San Francisco game intently last Thursday. I think my first thought that I'd like to share is that the Bears defense played like they had some pride. I think Tommie Harris playing well made a huge difference. He is really the key to their whole scheme. I ripped him, and them, last week, and I told the guy from WCG who took exception that I'd say when they played well on defense. They did.

e. I don't really feel like I should say anything about Jay Cutler, because this column aims to stay away from saying obvious things. I'll just say it must be nice to have so many apologists when you mess up. He's like the second coming of Ronald Reagan with how teflon he is.

(Tangential ST&NO story - Reagan is a member of my fraternity. When he died in June of 2004, I was a senior at CSU, and President of my chapter, and I was asked to go on local television, to talk about Reagan as a fraternity man. Our guys did a fundraiser, and jumped on a trampoline for 54 straight days in the 80s, to break a Guinness record, while Frater Ronnie was POTUS. He sent us a congratulatory letter, so I focused on that with the news chick, Angie Lau. I had nothing but nice things to say, as Ronnie was definitely a good fraternity man.)

f. Peter King is really proud of himself for naming San Francisco's Aubrayo Franklin a midseason All-Pro as a NT. When Franklin got that scoring-area INT early on last Thursday, I kind of groaned, because I knew there was going to be some crowing about it.

I never have felt like Franklin jumped out, so I watched him closely, and my review is mixed. He didn't play a lot of snaps, so I wonder about his conditioning. He did play pretty stout against the run at times, and I felt like he was a good player overall when he was on the field. I could easily name 10-12 interior defensive players who are better, though. I guess it's fun to have a guy who is your guy, though.

g. Is Marc Bulger a veteran QB? I have always thought he was, but his command of clock management seemed really bad on Sunday. The Rams had a pretty good shot to beat the Saints, and Bulger and his receivers blew it. Man, I can't tell you how much I would hate to be associated with that team, in any capacity. It's got to be so disheartening to have no talent, be almost completely uncompetitive, then have a chance to beat an undefeated team, and blow it. Can you imagine what it's like to be a fan of such a team?

h. Reggie Bush had a really big game for the Saints on Sunday, stepping up from his usual "highly-paid-decoy" role. It's interesting to speculate on how the Saints value him. Obviously, they don't think he's a full-time RB, but he's paid like he's Adrian Peterson. I'd be happy to have him as a swing player, between RB and WR, but he's a backup at both positions, and I'd only pay him backup money. We'll soon see what the Saints think, because if I recall correctly, his contract is pretty well back-loaded.

i. Josh Freeman continues to look like he's the real deal for the Buccaneers, and Raheem Morris continues to look like he's gotten his bearings as a Head Coach. Both did a nice job in Sunday's game, despite Miami's comeback victory.

j. Speaking of Miami, I want to address the "Wildcat." The Dolphins are the only team which has had a lot of success with it, and every time they have a game with limited success, somebody speculates that the "trend" has run its course.

The thing is, Miami doesn't treat it like a trend. They treat it as a key part of the way they play offense, which puts their best players on the field together. They are committed to it, and they will continue to run it. They trade the disadvantage of being formationally unlikely to throw for the advantage of having 2-3 players who are good ball-carriers, who might get the ball in the running game. Other teams are finding that the direct-snap game maybe doesn't work for them. For Miami, it will continue to be an important part of their gameplan.

k. Joey Porter has had a pretty sub-par year, and he was a healthy scratch on Sunday. That raised some eyebrows, and Tony Sparano wouldn't comment on it. It actually parallels Adalius Thomas basically being shut down by the Patriots. Both teams are showing that having a big name and a big salary doesn't guarantee playing time, if you aren't producing on the field. Expect both players to be released after the season.

l. Another game I decided to watch on Monday was Jacksonville at the Jets. The Jets miss Kris Jenkins terribly, and their defense is nowhere near as good as it was when he was healthy. They are having to scheme to stop the inside run, and to keep Bart Scott and David Harris clean, and these things used to just happen. I expect New England to blow them out this coming week.

m. I can see why people like Mark Sanchez, but I continue not to be a fan. He's well-coached, and he has excellent fundamentals. I just think he's very limited as a natural thrower of the ball. I consider him to be a poor man's Matt Ryan, which is another way of calling him a middle class man's Chad Pennington.

Sanchez plays in a windy place, which I have noted before, and that's going to always be an issue. Another issue is that the offensive scheme he is playing in is very vertical, and Sanchez is a poster boy for the West Coast Offense. Rex Ryan inherited Brian Schottenheimer as offensive coordinator, but I don't think Schottenheimer and Sanchez are a very good match. I have to wonder if the Jets don't make a change in the offseason, to bring in somebody to make the passing game's design more horizontal. Mike Shanahan could do wonders with Sanchez, although he won't be going to New York.

Really, as I think about it, if Sanchez and Jason Campbell could trade offensive coaching staffs, they'd probably both be much better off. Two owners traded teams once; why couldn't this happen?

n. There was a crazy sequence in the third quarter, where Sanchez threw an interception to Quentin Groves, then Maurice Jones-Drew fumbled at the goal line, and then Braylon Edwards fumbled at the end of a 41-yard catch. It was a whole lot of ugly going on at once, like the perennially sloppy tendencies of the Jaguars were rubbing off on the Jets.

o. Torry Holt was a great player for many years, despite playing for some obscure St. Louis teams. Really, you could make a case that he was a better player than a few Hall of Famers. (How about Art Monk, Steve Largent, and Lynn Swann to name a few?) I would go so far as to say that he was better than any WR the Broncos have had in my lifetime, a little ahead of Rod Smith.

My point in giving Holt credit, is that I have to say that I think he is getting pretty close to the end of the line. He has really struggled to get any separation, in the times I have watched him this season. He had two strong games, against St. Louis (bad defense) and Seattle (garbage time in a 41-0 game), but I haven't been impressed with his recent work.

p. I loved the call by the Jaguars to have Jones-Drew take a knee and run the clock out. His apology to his fantasy owners made me cringe, though. I may be 7-3 in the official MHR league, but fantasy football is at odds with my beliefs about football, and I have a hard time reconciling the two things.

q. I couldn't talk myself into watching the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh game. Sorry, I know it was a key game, but a game with zero offensive touchdowns offends my sensibilities. (Just in case you were wondering why I had nothing on this game.) I'm sure it was ugly, and I feel fine, personally, having seen the highlights. When I walk into a smelly restroom, I get out as quick as possible. No need to hang around for half an hour, to have a good idea what happened there.

r. Jake Delhomme had a dangerously solid game on Sunday. It was the type of fool's gold performance that makes the regime think they are okay with him as their QB, and really, Jake has been having those games his whole career. The Panthers are suddenly 4-5, and back in the picture for a Wild Card spot, but I really believe that they need a better QB if they ever want to really compete for a championship.

s. Matt Ryan struggled mightily again on Sunday, and his two interceptions were a lot of the reason the Falcons lost the game. His first INT, in the second quarter, led to a TD which set the Falcons behind 21-10. The one he threw in the 4th quarter was converted 3 plays later into the TD which put the game away for Carolina.

Don't get me wrong; Ryan is mostly a good QB, but he has definite limitations, which I have highlighted in the past. He really struggles to beat tight coverage, and he's seen a lot of it lately.

t. Speaking of Hall of Fame-caliber guys who look washed up, old friend Jason Elam seems to have really lost his fastball. He's now 9 for 14, and he's only 3 for 6 between 30 and 39 yards. I would be surprised if he kicks after this season.

u. I always thought Beanie Wells was soft when he was at Ohio State, and he didn't do a lot early this season to change my mind. Lately, though, he's shown a lot better, and he's a big reason why the Cardinals are 6-3, and squarely in control of the NFC West. I've also been more impressed with the play of RT Levi Brown than ever before. He's been blowing some people off the ball in the running game.

v. The Chargers have been really tough in the scoring area lately. Of course, the Eagles helped them out by not even trying to run the ball down there. You have to make the defense think that they have to defend everything, or else they are at a distinct advantage. Only getting field goals of 18, 25, and 25 yards on visits deep into San Diego territory was the difference in that game. A defense can get shredded, as the Chargers did, and if they toughen up in the scoring area, they make up for it. A lot of Donovan McNabb's 450 yards were low-quality.

w. The Chargers sure are paying Darren Sproles a lot of money not to participate very much on offense. He's a lot like Reggie Bush, in being a highly-paid decoy who is never going to be much more than what he is.

x. Hey, Adam Schefter. From a money guy, "large" means thousand. When you say "two hundred fifty thousand large," that means $250 Million. He said that on Monday Night Countdown (Served by Applebee's... really). People misspeak all the time; I just wanted to make sure he knows what "large" means. This is coming from a helpful place.

y. I have to hand it to the Browns. They played really well on defense Monday night. Their offense is just so terrible, that it's no use. Those defensive players are playing for jobs next year, whether it be in Cleveland under a new regime, or elsewhere. Guys who show some pride and effort on bad teams will have some good film for their agents to shop them with. Guys who pack it in will be out of the league, like so many guys who played defense in Denver last season.

z. I actually like to listen to MNF nowadays, as I finish ST&NO every week. The main reason is that I actually think that both Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden are value-adding to listen to. The guys at Mickey Mouse-land spent so many years looking for a good third man, with such horrible results, and they've finally found a good 3-man booth. I actually don't like Mike Tirico, who is good at basketball, but bad at football play-by-play (much like Joe Buck is great with baseball, and abysmal with football).

5. I know the Bengals have always been willing to take on troubled players, but it's hard to imagine what they are thinking in reportedly bringing in Larry Johnson. As LJ was to be the key RB on the Shallow Thoughts team in the official MHR Fantasy League, I can tell you that his performance has been garbage this season. Some of his bad performance can certainly be attributed to bad offensive line play in Kansas City, but Johnson is clearly lacking quickness to the hole, and the leg drive he had in his prime. I just don't see what value the Bengals are going to get out of him.

I've reached midnight, and unfortunately, I need to call it a night. My company is in the process of being acquired, which has caused me to be much busier than normal at this time of the month, and I have an early morning meeting Tuesday. I hope you enjoy this edition of ST&NO, and have a great week. I'll see you all again next Tuesday, hopefully with time to give you my normal output.

Comcast Presents: The Fumble and The Knee

Jonathan Loesche — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 16:03:18 -0000

This post is brought to you by Comcast. Check out the new NFL Red Zone Channel. Catch every touchdown from every game, only on NFL Red Zone!

On the surface, the Jaguars had yet another sub par red zone performance against the Jets. The Jaguars only scored one touchdown in three trips inside the Jets 20 yard line, making it 14 out of 28 for the year. The only touchdown came on a David Garrard scramble.

However, the other two trips inside the 20 were the one's that everyone is still buzzing about. Maurice Jones-Drew's fumble and kneel down were to the bane of every fantasy owner who had a close loss this week. Not to mention nearly season wrecking plays for the Jaguars.

The first major play was the fumble. Quentin Groves made a rare meaningful contribution by intercepting a Mark Sanchez pass and looked like he was going in for a touchdown. Instead, he tripped inside the 5 yard line to setup a first and goal. On the ensuing 2nd and goal, a bad exchange between David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew resulted in a fumble that the Jets recovered.

That marked the fifth red zone turnover of the year for the Jaguars and their seventh red zone possession with no points on the season. Or in other words, one out of every four red zone trips for the Jaguars have resulted in no points.

This is a trend that has to stop if the Jaguars want to end the season with a winning record. Even if those turnovers end up being Scobee field goals, 3 points is better than nothing.

The other play that everyone is talking about is Maurice Jones-Drew's knee down at the one yard line. Coach Del Rio ordered Jones-Drew to take a knee at the one if the Jets allowed him to walk into the end zone so that the Jaguars could run out the clock and kick a field goal to win.

The national media is comparing this to Brian Westbrook's play, half the time forgetting the caveat that the Eagles were ahead at the time. They're calling it a great effort, a sign of what a team player Jones-Drew is, etc.

I would call it the obvious decision considering the situation. If Jones-Drew scores a touchdown, that gives the Jaguars a 5 point lead and an obvious two point conversion attempt upcoming. Regardless of if they make it or not, the Jags would've kicked it off to the Jets with approximately 90 seconds remaining.

Is it really a smart thing to give the ball back to an offense that had been moving well in the second half, with a defense that had spent most of the 2nd half on the field and had just lost it's best player in Rashean Mathis?

I can understand the argument against taking the knee at the one. The Jaguars have had two kicks blocked already this year (1 FG and 1 XP), not to mention the possibility of a bad snap. However, those are two exceptions to the rule with a 20 yard FG.

What is the standard MO for a two minute offense in the NFL these days? A QB having all day against a three man rush before finding a receiver open in a hole in the zone. Sanchez already had a few deep throws open that either he miss timed or were dropped.

What happens if the Jets get a good return out to the 35, Sanchez hits either Edwards or Cotchery for a big gain, and then all of the sudden the Jets are inside the Jags 25 with a minute to play? We're sitting here shaking our heads at the defense this morning.

Is it so hard to see that scenario playing out in Jack's head as he gave the order to Jones-Drew to just take the knee? I'll take the play where the negatives are the exception to the rule, rather than the expected outcome.

-Jonathan Loesche

Jaguars 24 Jets 22: A New Low

John B — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 23:40:03 -0000

by Bill Kostroun - AP

View full size photo »

The Jets are 4-5 after their 24-22 loss to Jacksonville in the Meadowlands today. That makes 5 losses in 6 games. It's the 4th of those 5 to be decided in the final 2:00. It's yet another crushing loss in a season that started so well.

More after the jump.

The Bad:

Kerry Rhodes: I've officially had enough of hearing Kerry talk about how great he is. Tone it down until you back it up on the field. Despite the defense's success, he hasn't transformed into the playmaker many expected. He was burned on the decisive play that set up a chip shot field goal.

First Half Defense: The Jets did not force a punt in the first half, and the front seven was completely manhandled. Jacksonville's run blockers constantly sealed their men and gave Maurice Jones-Drew holes to explode through. He almost because the first 100 yard rusher against New York this season in the first half alone.

Last Drive Defense: The pass rush wasn't there. I know this is a great defense, an elite unit. It would be nice if they could get the big stop, though. This is the third time in six games the other team has put together a game winning drive late in the fourth.

Rookie Mistakes by Mark Sanchez: This game was not a total wash for the rookie quarterback. He made some plays that flashed his promise and showed signs of what he will become with more seasoning. There were subtle errors, though, like not elevating the ball Quentin Groves interception. Don't get me wrong. It was an incredible display of athelticism and coordination by Groves. Great, great play. However, part of being a quarterback in the NFL is to make sure a quick throw to a receiver is high enough to get over a lineman. There was the timeout on the goal line he burned in the second half with plenty of time left on the play clock. There were a few attempted throw aways that Jacksonville defenders touched. These didn't affect the game, but it's playing with fire. If you're throwing it away, put it in the second row, not within reach of a defender. These things come with time and illustrate how tough it is to win with a rookie quarterback.

Dustin Keller: I know it's really tough to get on him. His 6 catch, 58 yard day was productive and encouraging. He's starting to emerge in the passing game. There were also a couple of key drops. In addition, a guy with his athleticism ought to be able to make somebody miss or break a tackle every now and then.

Braylon Edwards: Again, tough to get on him with 79 yards on 3 receptions, but his fumble was a killer. So was his drop on the two point conversion after the Jets took the lead in the fourth. It was not an unforced error but still a ball a number one receiver can't let hit the ground. He also never should have thrown it on his option pass. He had open field and a blocker in front of him and could have picked up a first down by tucking and running.

Lowery/Sheppard Combo: Dwight Lowery and Lito Sheppard are good football players. They have been good to very good this season. They had trouble with Torry Holt and Mike Thomas. Darrelle Revis shut down Mike Simms-Walker, but Jacksonville's top wideout scored a touchdown when Revis wasn't on him.

First Play Call: One thing I've always said about Brian Schottenheimer is that he has incredible acumen of X's and O's but doesn't know how to apply his knowledge. It reminds me of this teacher I had in high school chemistry. He was a brilliant guy who knew the concepts inside and out. He just couldn't communicate them so nobody in my class left with the slightest clue about chemistry. The first play of the game made sense on the chalkboard. It ended with Jerricho Cotchery wide open. The problem is it's really too hard for a rookie quarterback to roll left and make an accurate long throw against his body. The result was failure.

Let me talk about the Edwards throw. Part of the blame goes on Braylon for making the throw with open field in front of him, but why would you want him throwing with the game on the line? He's not used to doing it. It's not what he does best.

Darrelle Revis Returning Punts: Let me go on record. This is a horrible, horrible, horrible, horrible idea. I know he was great returning punts at Pitt. I know he had an incredible return against West Virginia. I watched that game and was blown away. There is absolutely no reason for him to be returning punts. By far his most important role on this team is shutting down the other team's best receiver. Why get him hit and potentially injured by running punts back? Is the risk worth the benefit? How much better will the team be with him instead of Jim Leonhard even if he is a little better as a return man? By the way, his long on 2 returns was for 3 yards.

Lack of Intensity: I'm sure we'll hear all week about how Rex Ryan giving the team 6 days off during the bye led to such a sloppy performance. That's a really simplistic explanation, but the poor performance full of mistakes in the first half will give these people plenty of ammo.

Up Men: The Jets got lucky on Jacksonville's surprise onside kick. That's all there is to it. The front line left early. They've been doing it all year. It was only a matter of time before somebody exploited it. The Jaguars executed, and the Jets got a few lucky bounces. It was frustrating to see these guys continue to leave early even after that. This needs to be corrected.

The Good:

Thomas Jones: He hit holes, broke tackles, and grinded out tough yardage on his 77 yard, 21 carry day.

Mike Devito: He played really well in the middle of the line, winning his matchups and getting off his blocks.

Jim Leonhard: He was all over the field with 7 tackles and a sack.

Brad Smith: Made some nice plays on coverage units.

Jaguars Fans on This Site: All week Jaguars fans graced us with their presence here on GGN, and I can't say enough about them. They were classy, knowledgable, and added a lot to our discussion here. In the year and change I've run this blog, I've come across some great fan bases. The Bills and Texans come to mind. The Jaguars fans we came across this week top the list. Congrats on the win. Good luck the rest of the way. Please do continue to stop by.

Halftime Adjustments: The Jets played much more inspired football in the second half.

Other Thoughts:

You really can't say enough about Maurice Jones-Drew. It's been a long time since a football player impressed me like he did today. He's the total package. He's got speed and vision. He hits hits holes. He's bruising between the tackles. He's a threat as a receiver. He blocks well. He's got football intellect and is selfless like when he went down on the 1 instead of padding his stats with a touchdown so the Jets wouldn't have a chance to get the ball back. He was the difference.
David Garrard also gets props. He made the plays on that last drive.
It's funny how things even out. Two weeks ago, the Jets pretty much manhandled the Dolphins but essentially handed them the game by making silly errors. This week, the Jags really had the better of the play for most of the game, but a missed field goal, a guy tripping himself going into the end zone, and a botched exchange from the one foot line were enough to almost gift wrap the Jets a win.
I find this a bit easier to swallow than the Miami game. It's one thing when the opponent plays better than you like the Jaguars did. It's another to constantly shoot yourself in the foot like the Jets did two weeks ago. There was no doubt the Jaguars were the better team today.
It's frustrating because it's clear the Jets are on the verge of being a good team, but they just can't finish games. Kind of like Mark Sanchez. He makes plays that show the ability is there, but it just hasn't all come together yet.

Well, these are surely not the circumstances you want heading to Foxborough. This team is in bad shape after a series of bitter losses. At this point, the Playoffs have begun. The Jets probably need to win their last 7 to make it. How disappointing.

New York Jets Run Offense vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Run Defense

John B — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 15:24:04 -0000

by Peter Morgan - AP

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The Jaguars have one of the worst statistical run defenses in football. The Chiefs did little to try and exploit it last week, running only 12 times. Part of this was due to them playing from behind. The Jets are going to test Jacksonville's new 4-3 base defense much more up front.

Jacksonville hopes its strength will come from up the middle and tackles John Henderson and Terrance Knighton. Henderson is a multi time Pro Bowler. Knighton is a rookie space eater. He's been pretty good defending the run, although he's less likely to beat his man and penetrate. He's more of a Sione Pouha type. Atiyyah Ellison will rotate in with them, a guy who doesn't do anything poorly but also doesn't do anything particularly well.

Derrick Harvey will line up at one end. He weighs in at 281 pounds, big for a 4-3 end. His play against the run seems to have improved a bit with the move to the 4-3. On the other side, the Jaguars will play a pair of smallish ends, Quentin Groves, a small speedy guy who is something of a liability in the run game and Bryan Smith, an even smaller player. They are in there to provide the pass rush. Jacksonville hopes the Jets run away from them, which they might if they are lined up against D'Brickashaw Ferguson, and Gang Green is best running it right.

Daryl Smith is Jacksonville's best linebacker against the run. Smith does everything well. For my money, he's one of the most overlooked players in football. He's had success at both middle and outside linebacker during his career. He'll start outside on the weak side. Justin Durant, who starts in the middle does a decent job against the run. Jacksonville wants the tackles to keep him clean. Strong side backer Clint Ingram is the weakest defending the run. I would expect the Jets to target him.

As always, Jacksonville will probably stick 8 in the box against the rookie quarterback, but neither safety Reggie Nelson nor Gerald Alexander has provided Jacksonville much in run support this year, which is stark considering how much their 3-4 base struggled against the run until they switched their scheme last week.

What are the keys? Knighton played nose in the 3-4 so he'll likely line up against Nick Mangold. Mangold has to control him on his own. The idea for any nose tackle is to occupy a pair of blockers. Nick has been great controlling his assignments to this point against more decorated linemen. The strength at the center position springs the run game because the Jets have an extra blocker who does not need to dedicate himself to blocking the nose. The Jets will. Knighton lined up on the left side against the Chiefs. If he does again, that will leave Brandon Moore, Damien Woody, and Tony Richardson to take on an end and linebacker. This looks like it could be a favorable matchup for the Jets.

New York Jets Pass Offense vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Pass Defense

John B — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 13:00:39 -0000

by Peter Morgan - AP

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Jacksonville's defense looked transformed against the Kansas City Chiefs last week. The unit had struggled all season long to generate pressure against opposing quarterbacks all year, 5 in the first 7 games, but registed 3 last Sunday and applied constant pressure. Playing against a suspect offensive line and a quarterback who holds the ball too long had a lot to do with it, but the Jags also changed their scheme. After running a 3-4 defense, a poorly thought out Mangini style scheme change, Jacksonville reverted to using the 4-3 as their base. The Jaguars did display some 3-4 against the Chiefs and zone blitzed a lot to try and confuse the protection. Against a rookie quarterback, expect a lot more of this. Also expect the four first round picks and Brandon Moore on the offensive line to do a lot better against the Jaguars.

Jacksonville's 4-3 has strength built up the middle. John Henderson is still playing at a high level. He registered a sack, a hit, and 5 pressures against the Chiefs. He's joined by Terrence Knighton, a 325 rookie from Temple who does not have a great burst to get to the quarterback but freqently occupies a pair of tacklers to open things up for others. 2008 first round pick Derrick Harvey played inspired football against Kansas City, displaying good power moves and athleticism against Brandon Albert, the talented young left tackle from Virginia. He'll look to duplicate his performance against another young talented left tackle from Virginia, D'Brickashaw Ferguson. The way D'Brickashaw and Nick Mangold are playing, I feel comfortable with the Jets' ability to hold Henderson and Harvey in check.

Bryan Smith will start at left end in place of another 2008 pass rushing draftee Quentin Groves. Groves is raw but has a lot of athletic ability. He can get to the quarterback but it really best served as a situational pass rusher. The Jags will probably use him as a rusher both with his hand on and off the ground. Aside from then, his playing time could be limited because he struggles against the run and is giving up over 60 pounds to Damien Woody. Can you say mismatch? Smith is even smaller than Groves. It will be important for him to get off the line quickly and use his speed against Woody because unless he gets on top of Damien quickly, he will be overpowered.

Daryl Smith is going to play a key role for Jacksonville. The outside linebacker is excellent in pass coverage and will probably draw Dustin Keller frequently. The Jets made Keller Mark Sanchez's primary read against Miami to try and keep things simple and safe. Keller responded with his best game of the year. Keller is going to give Smith all he can handle (as well as linebackers Justin Durant, who is solid in pass coverage and Clint Ingram, who is something of a liability). Smith will also be used as a blitzer. He had 2 sacks and 3 pressures against the Chiefs.

On the outside, there will be plays to be made. The secondary of Rashean Mathis and Derek Cox at corner and Reggie Nelson and Gerald Alexander has been suspect all year, and you can only blame the pass rush to a certain extent. The Jags are giving up over 240 yards through the air. Alexander is nursing a shoulder injury. Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery have the edge here and will all day. Keller also will have a great chance to exploit the safeties in coverage. I'd also look for David Clowney to have an impact. The Jaguars will be aggressive, and the Chiefs burned them long on a safety blitz.

I think the Jets handle the pass rush well. They have a significantly better offensive line than Kansas City. If he has to, Brian Schottenheimer can leave in extra blockers as he frequently did against the Dolphins and give Mark Sanchez time to find the matchups that favor his receivers.

Week 10: Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets Game Preview

Jonathan Loesche — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 03:07:42 -0000

New York Jets (4-4)	Week #10	Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4)
	VS.

Date:	November 15st, 2009	Location:	East Rutherford, New Jersey
Time:	1:00 PM EST	Stadium:	The Meadowlands
TV:	CBS	Favorite:	Jets -7
Radio:	Click Here	Over/Under:	40.5
Weather:	Mid 50's, no chance of rain	Injury Report:	Click Here
SBN Coverage:	Gang Green Nation	Coverage Map	Click Here

The Jaguars travel to the swamps of New Jersey for what is in essence a playoff elimination game. Both teams are part of the logjam of 5-3/4-4 teams in the AFC. A win means they get a leg up on one of their main competitors, a loss means they'll need a lot of help to keep their hopes alive.

The last time the Jaguars went against a Rex Ryan defense was the final game of the 2008 season at Baltimore. It was certainly a low point in a season filled with low points. The Jaguars committed four turnovers and were held to only 245 yards in a 27-7 defeat.

Now the Jaguars must find a way to defend against the defense to keep their playoff hopes alive. In addition, the Jaguars must deal with a hot rookie quarterback, much like last year in Baltimore. Mark Sanchez has played well for the Jets so far, but has had his fair share of rookie moments.

Can the Jags go into the Meadowlands and land one of Jack Del Rio's biggest wins in his career, or will they have another quiet flight home?

Jaguars Offense vs Jets Defense

The Jets have an impressive resume on defense. They're the only unit in football that hasn't given up 100 yard rusher, 100 yard receiver, or 300 yard passer all year. The defense is surrendering only 11.5 points in the game, best in the NFL. They come at you from every angle and any one of the 11 players on the field is liable to blitz at any given time.

However, here is something to ponder with the Jets defense. How will the react to getting smacked in the mouth running the football? The only time the Jets defense had genuinely looked bad was when Miami ran at them with the Wildcat. That is where this game is going to be won or lost.

Maurice Jones-Drew has to start fast for the Jaguars to have a chance. If he gets going running the ball, that'll force a cocky Jets defense onto it's heels and give David a chance to get throws off. If we come out and throw nine straight times again,we'll likely be seeing Luke McCown because David will be on the sideline with broken ribs.

If MJD can get it going, I expect to see alot of screens to Mike Thomas on the outside as well as to Jones-Drew coming out of the backfield. The way you beat a blitz heavy team is to get them aggrivated and then use that against them.

When the Jaguars do decide to test the Jets through the air, the obvious target is going to be CB Lito Sheppard. Sheppard is coming off a quad injury and the Jets' other corner, Darrell Revis, is one of the best in the league. I would try to get Sims-Walker matched up with Sheppard as often as possible to test the quad injury, while leaving Holt to deal with Revis most of the time.

Jaguars Defense vs Jets Offense

Rookie Quarterback Mark Sanchez came out of the gates like a man possessed. However, he has slid back down to reality as the season has progressed. Sanchez was a turnover machine in losses against Buffalo and New Orleans, throwing a combined nine interceptions.

The Jaguars will need to build on the success against the Chiefs and hopefully get into Sanchez's face early. All the indications are that he'll show you early on how he's going to be. If he gets hot, back by the NFL's #1 rushing attack, we could end up with a repeat of the Seattle game.

As I previously mentioned, the Jets have the NFL's #1 rushing attack averaging over 170 yards per game.The Jets leading rusher is Thomas Jones, who has 704 yards and 7 touchdowns so far this season.

The Jaguars' defensive line will have to be the key to stopping the Jets' rushing attack. John Henderson and Terrance Knighton will have to be getting penetration in the back field to help counter for a weak right edge.

Speaking of that right edge, former practice squad player Bryan Smith will be the starting RDE for the Jaguars. As Collin pointed out in his brilliant two part series, he didn't play all the well against the Chiefs. However, Quentin Groves has been such a liability against the run it's not likely things could get much worse.

The basic game plan for the Jaguars has to be stopping the run and putting the ball in Mark Sanchez's hands. Sanchez hasn't looked great over the last five games and he's never had a situation where he's been expected to simply throw it to win.

Intangibles and Special Teams

If the Jets have the best rushing offense and one of the best defenses in the NFL, then why are they sitting at 4-4? Two reasons, turnovers and bad special teams.

The Jets have committed 15 turnovers so far in 2009, eleven being Mark Sanchez interceptions. However, the Jaguars are even worse. The Jaguars are -3 in the turnover department in 2009. David Garrard has thrown four interceptions in the last three games and he'll need to be careful to avoid more on Sunday.

The Jets' Special Teams melt down against the Dolphins two weeks ago has been well documented. However, the unit has been suspect all season. Mike Thomas seems like he's due to finally break a touchdown on a return and this would be a perfect week to do it.

Josh Scobee has been having something of an off year. Scobee is just 9-14, though 4 of those misses have been from 50+ and another one was blocked. Also, here is an interestining tid bit. Scobee leads the league with 6 attempts from more than 50 yards. The next closest is Mason Crosby of Green Bay with 4, then several kickers with 3. Only 5 kickers have had more than 2 50+ yard attempts this year.

Coaching

Jack Del Rio leads the Jaguars to the Meadowlands for the final time as the stadium is scheduled to close after this year. After almost coughing up a win against the Chiefs, it will be interesting to see how the Jaguars respond to that scare.

Rex Ryan is coming off his first bye week as head coach. In an interesting move, the Jets only had two days worth of practice during the bye week, despite losing four of their last five games.

Player On The Hot Seat

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB

The entire fate of the Jaguars offense rests in his hands. If he can't get things going running the ball, then the Jets will have their ears pinned back the entire game and it could get even uglier than Seattle.

Video Killed The Game Preview

Prediction

Jacksonville Jaguars 28

New York Jets 24

Mike Thomas breaks a punt return for a touchdown, the Jaguars score following a Mark Sanchez interception deep in Jets territory, and get two long pounding drives thanks to Jones-Drew.

-Jonathan Loesche

Far too early to slap Maybin with 'bust' label

Brian Galliford — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:45:24 -0000

In the NFL, there's very little room for such novelties as patience and perspective. Aaron Maybin is 21 years old. He entered the 2009 NFL Draft after his sophomore year in college, one in which he led the Big 10 with 12 sacks at Penn State. Throughout the entire pre-draft process, Maybin was labeled with such words as "light," "raw," and "weak" - labels that, for whatever reason, still surprise people when applied to him to this day.

Maybin has now appeared in seven regular season games with the Buffalo Bills. Playing perhaps the most difficult position on an NFL defense aside from cornerback, Maybin's statistical impact has been minimal - he has just four tackles in a rotational role. Naturally, when a first-round pick fails to produce immediately, the "b word" gets floated out there. Sal Maiorana of the Democrat and Chronicle is the first person of prominence that I've heard utter - or in this case, tweet - the "b word" in regards to Maybin.

Sal (and anyone else who's ready to apply the "b word" label as well): don't jump the gun on this kid. Consider the facts.

DE isn't generally an early-impact position
One of the big arguments for the Bills not to draft a defensive end this past April was that, for a team in need of instant impact from its early-round picks, a rookie DE wouldn't produce the way we'd need our first-rounder to produce. That argument was based on the rookie production of the much-heralded 2008 rookie defensive end class. Three ends were drafted in the Top 10 in 2008, and seven in total were taken in the first two rounds. Exactly zero of these players were high-impact, game-changing forces as rookies (and many of them have yet to ascend to that level in their second seasons):

Round-Pick-Player-Team-Stats
1-2: Chris Long, St. Louis Rams - 40 tackles, 4.0 sacks, 1 FF
1-6: Vernon Gholston, New York Jets - 13 tackles
1-8: Derrick Harvey, Jacksonville Jaguars - 19 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT, 2 PD
1-28: Lawrence Jackson, Seattle Seahawks - 29 tackles, 2.0 sacks
2-50: Calais Campbell, Arizona Cardinals - 29 tackles, 1 FF, 1 PD
2-52: Quentin Groves, Jacksonville Jaguars - 13 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 FF, 1 PD
2-54: Jason Jones, Tennessee Titans - 31 tackles, 5.0 sacks, 3 FF, 2 PD

It's worth mentioning, also, that it's traditionally much easier for rookie pass rushers to make an impact in a 3-4 defense than it is to do so in a 4-3, where their responsibilities are more diversified. The only 3-4 player above is Gholston, whose rookie season, statistically and behind the scenes, was terrible under Eric Mangini. Jones, meanwhile, made the switch to DT in Tennessee's system, and his production can, in part, be explained by lining up next to Albert Haynesworth.

Otherwise, this group was highly average. In most cases, you're looking at Chris Kelsay or Ryan Denney numbers. For as much talent as this group has - and this year's group is more talented, by the way - the numbers are well below what we might call "average to above average" NFL defensive end production. It's the nature of the position to start your career slowly when you're a pass rusher, and particularly if you're playing in a 4-3, as most of the above players do.

Round-Pick-Player-Team-Stats
1-11: Aaron Maybin, Buffalo Bills - 4 tackles
1-13: Brian Orakpo, Washington Redskins - 22 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 PD
1-16: Larry English, San Diego Chargers - 10 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 1 FF, 1 PD
1-18: Robert Ayers, Denver Broncos - 7 tackles
2-43: Everette Brown, Carolina Panthers - 7 tackles, 1.0 sack, 1 FF
2-46: Connor Barwin, Houston Texans - 7 tackles, 1.0 sack, 2 PD
2-52: David Veikune, Cleveland Browns - N/A
2-57: Paul Kruger, Baltimore Ravens - 1 tackle
2-63: Cody Brown, Arizona Cardinals - N/A

Again, the 3-4 vs. 4-3 principle applies. Of the first-round picks, English and Ayers play in 3-4 schemes. Orakpo, who played end at Texas, is now Washington's strong-side linebacker, and they use him in a hybrid LB/DE role out of their 4-3 alignment - which means he's doing much of his rushing from a standing position. Maybin is the only first-round rookie end to be used in a traditional 4-3 manner, and that's pretty easy to glean just by his stat line.

Situations can't define busts after seven games
All of that might come across as excuse-making for Maybin - and it's exactly what I'm doing. I'm making excuses for him. The expectation was unreasonably high to begin with, considering his pre-draft hype, and it grew to unmanageable proportions when it became apparent how Buffalo planned to use him after a lengthy training camp holdout (don't forget about that, either).

A small part of me likes the fact that Buffalo refuses to move him all over the field. It's the part of me that understands that Maybin's got the talent to be one of the best at the end position that likes the fact that the Bills are playing him exclusively at that position. All of his reps are taken there, and each week, he looks a little better than the last rushing the passer. His legs are fresh, and with any luck, he'll start making impact plays over the second half of the season.

But the biggest part of me (no anatomy jokes of any kind, please) is a bit perplexed by this decision as well. Buffalo's coaching staff, if they weren't in win-now mode before the season, is definitely at that level now. I find it difficult to fathom that they wouldn't try to find more ways to get Maybin onto the field and into advantageous situations. He's too good an athlete to limit to rotational end work, is he not? Everything that made him a top prospect - that lightning-quick first step, his being a tremendous worker and highly motivated, and with tons of potential - still applies. It's on the coaching staff (much more than it's on Maybin, by the way) for his paltry stat line.

Don't forget about Aaron Schobel, Kelsay and Denney, either. Whether you like them as players or not, these are veterans that have the nuances of the position down. All three have played well this season. That makes it more difficult to get Maybin onto the field - again, unless you start to put more on his plate schematically.

Considering his age, his level of development, the position he plays, and how the Bills are using him, it's literally unfathomable to me how anyone can be surprised about the lack of production we've seen from Maybin. I don't like making excuses for players unless they're valid, but I'll make any excuse for a player being labeled a bust after seven professional games. He's 21. We know his game needs polish. Give him time - the kid's still got the talent and the drive. Screw the "bust" label and apply a little patience for once, folks.

Groves and Sims-Walker possibly on the trading block?

Jonathan Loesche — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 12:00:02 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

Soon to be ex-Jaguar Quentin Groves?

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First, thanks to Surteal for bringing this to BCC via fanshot

According to this story on PFT, Quentin Groves and possibly Mike Sims-Walker are being shopped around by the Jaguars in hopes of finding a suitor before the October 20th trade deadline. With Quentin Groves, I can understand the team's willingness to find a trade partner now. Groves' incident while heading to the airport last Friday was his most headline worthy action since being drafted by the Jaguars in 2008. With his demotion to 3rd team, it is clear that Groves has a tall mountain to climb with this team.

This is compounded by the fact the Jaguars are now running the 3-4 (the defense that Groves was projected to coming out of Auburn) and has still been a non-factor. Would a team be willing to trade for Groves at this point? Well he's still very young and in the hands of a team that could actually run a 3-4 scheme, he could be useful as a rush linebacker. Still, I wouldn't expect more than a 5th rounder or similar marginal player in return for him.

Mike Sims-Walker on the other hand, I really can't fathom why this team would put him on the block except to further make an example out of him over his own Seattle incident. Sims-Walker has a minor screw up, so let's trade the guy who was looking like the second coming of Jimmy Smith? It makes perfect sense to me *sarcasm*. Unless we got two first rounders in return, I really can't see the advantage in trading Sims-Walker.

This is crunch time for the Jaguars

Jonathan Loesche — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 23:22:40 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Maurice Jones-Drew recently called out the team's lack of committment to the running game. Will this be the last of the bad press for the Jags?

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I've been sitting here, fairly silent since the debacle in Seattle. I'm sure many of the players have had the same sort of mental exercise I've had. Just sit back and try to forget where everything went wrong and find out how to move forward. Well, I've finally accepted what happened on Sunday and I'm looking forward to watching this team move to 3-3 next Sunday.

However, this Sunday has to mark a turning point for this team (and Jack Del Rio) for the remainded of the season. This team was riding high after routing the Titans, and has since found itself back in the same situations of off the field incidents that made us scratching our heads last year.

First Quentin Groves misses the flight due to an accident, then budding star wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker misses his bed check, though in the process being the only member of the offense to score in Seattle, and finished off with Maurice Jones-Drew going to the Times-Union about the Jaguars lack of a running game.

When the Jaguars play the Rams in front of 40,000 people on Sunday, we will see what this team is really made of. Is this team going to quit on their season, say it was rebuilding all along, or will they come together and make a run at being 5-3.

I sincerely hope and believe that it is going to be the latter, because I don't think this town could stand to see another dose of the 2008 Jaguars. I believe, however, because I'm looking past the Seattle game that left such a bitter taste in everyone's mouth.

The trip to Seattle saw a team that most likely read their press clippings a bit too much, got inflated, and proceeded to have the air popped out. The team that returned the Jacksonville came back focused and wanting to show that they weren't Troy St. This week, they will play a team that can be called the Troy St. of the NFL in St.Louis.

Following that, they got two other teams stuck in neutral at best in Tennesee and Kansas City. I remember last year when the Jaguars saw a favorable three game slate upcoming against the Bengals, Browns, and Lions. Those games saw the 2008 Jags begin their downward spiral, Mike Peterson's career in Jacksonville end, and most likely put the nails in the coffin for James Harris.

If this team wants us to believe they have learned from the sins of 2008, then we will be 5-3 heading into the back half of the schedule. Even a mediocre team should be able to win all three of these games, even with a trip to Tennessee in the middle of it.

If Jack Del Rio wants to make sure his job description is still "Jacksonville Jaguars head coach" next year, we will be 5-3 after Week 9. With late season showdowns with Indy, New England, Miami, and New York, and San Francisco on the schedule, the time to rack up wins is now. Losing easy games has been an unfortunate hall mark of his time in Jacksonville, and it has to stop now or we will be looking for a new head coach.

If this team wants to regain the good will it lost last week, it will want to be 5-3.

-Jonathan Loesche

PS: BCC Radio goes for a live test run tomorrow night at 10:30 pm. More info to come tomorrow

NFL Network's RedZone: Looking backwards and going forward

River City Rage — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 13:36:49 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

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This post is sponsored by Comcast and their NFL RedZone channel, a new NFL Network channel. Want to see every touchdown from every NFL game as it happens as well as live look-ins to all of Sunday's games in key situations? Then you need Comcast's NFL RedZone.

Looking Backward:

Ok, we're back to reality in Jacksonville. After beating the Texans and stunning the Titans, the Jaguars revealed a little more of their true colors in a 41-0 beat down by the Seattle Seahawks. The team faced adversity, losing Mike Sims-Walker due to a "rules violation" and the distraction of whatever the heck Quentin Groves was doing on the road on the way to the game. In both cases, the players apologized to the team, the Weavers, and the fans for their behavior. Unfortunately for both, there's not much for us to highlight in the red zone.

We also learned something about Dirk Koetter's offense, that it's far less effective without a solid slot receiver to open the box for the running game. Houston and Tennessee showed us that Wide Receiver Mike Thomas is a game changer, not so much when he catches the ball, but when teams are forced to account for his motion. This end-around or reverse option forces a linebacker to respect the threat, putting one less player in between Maurice Jones-Drew and the end zone. Putting Mike Thomas on the outside, opposite of Torry Holt, took away that threat.

Surprisingly, Tight End Hybrid Zach Miller didn't receive much in the way of action. I envision him developing into a Dallas Clark sort of player for the Jaguars, perfect for the slot in the same way that Mike Thomas plays, though it's yet to be seen what happens on the field.

Looking Forward:

The Jaguars now look toward a home game against the struggling St. Louis Rams (Limbaugh's?). After the Tennessee game, we saw the Seahawks and Rams as a pair of easy wins, pushing the Jaguars to a 4-2 record at the bye week. Now we see a Rams team that probably smells blood in the water going against a Jaguars team that looked overwhelmed and underprepared. That said, I can't imagine a situation where the coaches could sit in that film room and watch the debacle and not dedicate every waking moment to salvaging a win out of the situation. If there was any week where the Jaguars could show some sign of a pass-rush, this would be the week as their offensive line is sub-par and Mark Bulger is coming back. Bulger, despite being my back-to-back fantasy football championship quarterback a few years ago, is a quarterback that can be pressured into making mistakes (and often out of the game).

Stat of the Week: The New York Jets, with Blitz Happy Rex Ryan, had four team sacks going into the Monday Night Game. The Jacksonville Jaguars have a total of four teams sacks with a much more passive approach. Why is it that the Jets pressure the QB and the Jaguars tackle air?

Final Thought: My thoughts on Jack Del Rio are well known. This is a big week for him. There's no excuse for the Jaguars to fall to the Rams at home. Falling to weaker teams is a common trend in the Del Rio era, he needs to break character and deliver a win. It's as simple as that. Should Del Rio lose, the drumbeat will start to get awfully loud.