SB Nation - Derrick Harvey

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

8 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall, left, avoids the tackle of Indianapolis Colts linebacker Gary Brackett in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. Marshall had 21 receptions for 200 yards in the game. The Colts defeated the Broncos 28-16. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Christmas is coming - and I, for one, am hoping for a much more joyous holiday season than I experienced last December. All I got for Christmas last year was the Broncos' historic collapse, and all I had to give was the one scenario that could possibly be worse than the season-ending Chargers game (it involved hypothetically cutting an apple, slipping, and stabbing myself in the groin WHILE watching that game).

I'm not much for moral victories, but today in Donny Deutschland, I will talk about why I feel better about Sunday's loss than I have about any Broncos loss in years. There's no time to waste, so let's not waste any time. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. I learned on Sunday that what I suspected was the case, was in fact, the case. That is, the Broncos can play with Indianapolis, at Indianapolis. It happened a little differently than I thought it would, but the Broncos competed, and got back in the game after getting down in really ugly fashion. Consider these statistics, as I pretend that I care about statistics for a moment. The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 posessions. These measures would tend to indicate victory, but in this case, the Broncos fell a little short.

For next time, we can internalize a few thoughts:

a. The Broncos have the players and schemes to cover the Colts receivers, pressure Peyton Manning, and generally disrupt their offense.

b. The Broncos have the players and schemes to move the ball at will against the Colts defense.

c. As a fan base, we all mistakenly thought to ourselves "Here we go again" when the Colts got up 21-0 after four possessions. We can take this game as a lesson that the past doesn't indicate the future. Those Broncos teams which got their doors blown off by the Colts passing game are definitely not these Broncos.

One general concern is that the Broncos could have run the ball better, and will need to next time. I felt the run scheme was too zone-heavy and horizontal, and it played into the Colts' plan to run-blitz the gaps. A smaller, faster team needs to be man-blocked with a vertical scheme. Those are guys you don't necessarily want moving laterally, because they're comfortable doing so.

The other concern is that at money time, Dallas Clark needed more and better attention. Josh Barrett needed to be on the field manning him up, because he's the best guy in the NFL at covering TEs man-to-man.

All in all, I am proud of the way the Broncos stayed in the game, despite some reasons that lesser men would take to quit. This was really a game which turned on a few plays, and I am pleased to know that the Broncos can compete with Indianapolis, unlike in past years. This week, it's the Raiders, and luckily, JaMarcus Russell will be under center again. Expect Elvis Dumervil to get some shots at him. The Broncos can take care of business at home, and position themselves well to make the postseason. Happy Raiders Week, friends.

2. Information From My Eyes, Broncos at Colts:

a. Andre' Goodman got beat on a crossing route by Pierre Garcon on the first offensive play of the game, and in the moment, I wondered if there was a major speed mismatch. Goodman settled down to play Garcon spectacularly the rest of the game, breaking up four well-thrown balls. Goodman has been terrific all year, but I'd call this his best game as a Bronco.

b. When the Broncos drafted Darcel McBath, I'd never heard of him. I'm very impressed with his play as a rookie, though, and he had a fantastic game Sunday. He separated Dallas Clark from the ball on a 3rd down, and also baited Peyton Manning into his third interception. It's a real bummer that he broke his forearm and is gone for the season, but he showed well when he got the opportunities. I look for him to make a serious run at Renaldo Hill's starting job next season.

c. I really "misunderestimated" the Colts' DTs, Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson. They both played fantastic, and drove the Broncos' interior players backward consistently.

d. Ryan Clady didn't play very well in the running game, which was a departure from what we've been seeing lately. He got pushed backward several times when he lost leverage, and he misread a few run blitzes, and didn't hit the right guy. He's young and growing, and we can only hope he learns from this game.

e. Brandon Marshall was spectacular, of course. It's obvious that Kyle Orton really trusts him to make plays at this point. I wish he trusted Eddie Royal a little more, though. The truth is, though, Royal hasn't come up with some plays when he's had chances to do so.

f. I was happy to see Jabar Gaffney back in the mix this week. He's a pro's pro, and the Broncos offense is better when he is involved.

g. I was pleased with what I saw from Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil, despite the Broncos' lack of sacks. Both played well against the run, and generated pressure against Manning.

h. Peyton Hillis isn't a very good lead blocker, and I think a key part of the trouble the running game had was with the loss of Spencer Larsen. Larsen has been knocking heads the last two weeks, and he wasn't there this time, obviously.

Hillis is a good RB, but he's a true HB, not a FB. The truth is, he is where he should be on the depth chart; the third RB for the Broncos. Zappa said that some DP posters were calling for Knowshon Moreno to be benched, and Hillis to get the starting job. That's not going to happen, and frankly, it's asinine. Hillis could get more opportunity to make plays, but he deserves to be behind Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. There's no question in my mind of that.

i. The Colts' last drive was enabled by missed tackles by Vonnie Holliday (first play of the series) and Mario Haggan (3rd down inside the Broncos 10).

j. Oh, Dallas Clark. Ty Law did a good job on him, but he often was assigned to cover Austin Collie. Wesley Woodyard is a good zone player, but he can't cover a Clark in man-to-man. That 4th-and-4 was badly schemed, because Brian Dawkins shouldn't be manned up on Clark, either.

Finally, at the end of the game, the approach should have been to look at the formation. The power was left, and the only receiving threat was Clark, playing with his hand down on the right side. You need somebody to drive him straight into the ground, so he can't get out in the pattern. That's how I would coach that situation, anyway. Tackle him when he pretends to block, without getting called for holding.

k. D.J. Williams had a very good game, except for the one stupid penalty. Darrell Reid got (another) one of those too, while we're at it.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games

a. I thought Thursday's Browns-Steelers game was pretty riveting, and I almost wish I went (but not quite). Several of my friends tried to get me to go, because everybody in the world was trying to dump their tickets. It was 12 degrees, with 50 mph winds, and felt negative-7 in Cleveland that night. That's a recipe for freezing your hind-parts off, as Omar would say.

The Browns are changing for the better, and I wonder if it saves Eric Mangini's job. They're doing some very interesting things, like using Mike Furrey at FS. He's played both ways in his career, but has been more of a WR in the NFL, and caught 98 passes for the Lions in 2006, which was second in the NFL.

He did some nice things at Safety in the game, and it reminded me of Troy Brown playing defense for the Patriots, though, as I mentioned, Furrey has played defense at the professional level. You have to be impressed with a player doing what it takes to help his team win.

b. A guy who I have always liked, who the Browns found for free is Matt Roth. He got on the wrong side of Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano in Miami, and they put him on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list, and then waived him in November. The Browns smartly claimed him, and he's played very well for the Browns thus far. The Sam position in a 3-4 is pretty hard to fill, because it's a unique skill set. Lamarr Woodley and Mario Haggan are both very good at it, and Adalius Thomas used to be, but like RT on offense, there are a lot more average 3-4 Sams than there are good ones. Roth is a good one, because he sets the edge well, and generates a good pass rush when he's called upon to do so. Finding a guy like him in-season is what a bad team has to do.

c. Two unheralded guys who the Browns have discovered on offense are RB Chris Jennings and TE Evan Moore. Jennings won a Grey Cup recently with the Montreal Alouettes, and looked like the best back on the Browns roster last Thursday. He ran with power and explosion against an excellent run defense.

I meant to mention Moore last week and forgot; but I know a football player when I see one, and he's a player. He was a big WR at Stanford for 4 years, and also played basketball for his first 2 years. His fluidity, body control, and overall athleticism jump off the screen, and really remind me of Antonio Gates. I don't know if he's as fast as Gates, but he looks to me like he could definitely be a Brent Celek-caliber receiving TE. He's been key to Brady Quinn's recent improvement, because Quinn does his best throwing work inside the numbers.

Jennings and Moore are two players who the Browns can be very excited about, as they figure out what their program is during the offseason. Like Roth, they came with no significant cost. Now the Browns just need to nail their offseason.

d. I had a friend who is a Steelers fan ask me what was wrong with his team, and I think I may have disappointed him by not having a real definitive answer ready. It's kind of a tough question to answer, really, because Mike Tomlin had it exactly right when he said it was a function of struggles in all three phases of the game.

The defense really misses Troy Polamalu, who I think might be the most irreplaceable defensive player in the NFL. No safety plays with the speed of Polamalu, and the Steelers are much more conservative in their blitz packages without him. Their CBs are also playing pretty poorly over the last five games. On offense, I think the Steelers play-calling has been suspect. Rashard Mendenhall has emerged as a good RB, and the Steelers seem reluctant to commit to letting him run. I'm not surprised at the rumblings Sunday that some offensive coaches are likely going to get whacked after the season.

e. Now, on to why the Browns won Thursday. There were two reasons. One reason is that Joshua Cribbs is a great football player, and he carried his team on offense and special teams. The other is that the Browns covered the Steelers' receivers at a shockingly high level. ST&NO Favorite Brandon McDonald was fantastic. He might have had the best coverage game I have seen from a CB this year (although Andre' Goodman was awesome on Sunday, too). Eric Wright was strong on the other side too, though he gave up a few completions to Santonio Holmes. As has often been the case with the Broncos this season, the coverage allowed the pressure to get to Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked 8 times.

f. It was another annoying weekend when almost every game was early, including the Broncos. I had the Chicago-Green Bay game on at the same time as the Broncos game,. and as I watched some of it, I was struck by the fact that neither team showed me anything that I didn't already know about them. Aaron Rodgers continued his recent run of getting sacked less, and the Packers defense was strong again. The Bears had some flashes, but self-destructed at key times.

The only real takeaway from this, to me, is another reminder why I don't really like fantasy football. The number one player in the Official MHR League this year has been my QB, Rodgers. In real football terms, he played fine on Sunday. He completed 16 of 24 throws for 180 yards, and lost a fumble on a blind-side sack. His team won the game, so no worries, right? Well, in fantasy terms, he tanked. Not only that, I am playing Zappa in the playoffs this week, and he has Ryan Grant, who had a monster game with 137 yards and 2 TDs, because the Bears were playing coverage to prevent big plays in the passing game.

g. Speaking of guys who tanked on my fantasy team, Randy Moss, this skunky, warm Miller High Life is for you. One catch for 16 yards, and a lost fumble? Really? He really looked like he wasn't trying hard, too; it was a total flashback to the Oakland days. Good thing I had Brandon Marshall and the Eagles (TD scoring) defense.

h. I think the Patriots are in trouble, and that their culture needs an adjustment. I read Bill Belichick's sending tardy players home as a clear indication of that. Adalius Thomas lipped off in the media, and got benched for it, and Randy Moss did it with his play somewhat on Sunday. I wouldn't be shocked if both are gone after this season. Thomas is gone for sure, and Moss is a possibility. The Patriots have a lot of draft assets with which to restock the WR position, and they're pretty solid at LB anyway, with guys like Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich making positive contributions.

It was pretty interesting how Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came to Moss's aid on Monday, after he clearly was dogging some pass routes. Michael Lombardi had a good point on NFL Network that Moss has done that his whole career, and that the Patriots probably weren't too alarmed by it. I think it's pretty bad, personally.

i. Scary moment in Arlington, Texas, when DeMarcus Ware was carted off the field with a neck injury. The Chargers had a false start, and then went right down the field in two plays to score the deciding TD afterward. Reports on Monday were that Ware would miss the next two weeks, which would really handicap the Dallas defense. Most casual fans think of Ware as just a pass rusher, but he is a rare player who stars against the run, and in zone coverage too.

j. I alluded to this thought last week, but it was well-articulated by Michael Lombardi last night; Dallas's struggles have nothing to do with what month it is. The same can be said of the Chargers and their success in the month of December. If you're playing in a lot of places where there's bad weather, then maybe the month is a semi-meaningful data point, but neither Dallas nor San Diego particularly qualifies. I know somebody is going to say that a game in December is a pressure game, but even that's not true a lot of times. San Diego has tended to be healthy in December, and Dallas has tended to be banged up. San Diego has tended to play weak late-season schedules, and Dallas has tended to play difficult ones. Don't get caught up in things which Peter King would incorrectly call a factoid.

k. That Radio Shack commercial with the sleeping scruffy dude saying "Dance, Sugar Plum Fairies" is bizarre. It makes no sense at all to me, and I can't imagine how it would make anybody want to shop at Radio Shack, or buy that craptastic phone from Sprint.

l. NBC lucked out with a great game on Sunday night between the Eagles and Giants. Neither defense looked particularly good, but both offenses lit it up. The difference in the game was a defensive TD from Sheldon Brown, and a punt-return TD from DeSean Jackson. Those plays also provided the difference in the Shallow Thoughts team beating Zappa's Sactown Beavers in the playoffs.

m. I would never let Jackson get off the line of scrimmage without getting hit. Teams just insist on letting this guy run free through their secondary, and he kills them. Little, fast guys like him must be re-routed off the line, and then you want over/under coverage on him after that. He's not the typical big, physical number-1 WR like Brandon Marshall, but he does need double-team attention, or at least Cover-3 behind him, so he can be hit at the line with confidence.

n. Brandon Jacobs, to me, is like a 98-mph fastball that's a little too straight, and rarely misses bats. Jacobs has been running harder lately than he was early in the season, but he doesn't make anybody miss. He takes so many hits, and this year, he's going down more easily than he used to. I think the Giants offense is better when Ahmad Bradshaw is getting more carries than Jacobs at this point, even as Jacobs has been better lately.

o. Speaking of the Giants, I want to share some ST&NO light with a Giants fan, because I've coincidentally been listening to his music as I wrote this part of the column. If you like hip hop, you ought to check out Nickel at his website www.SpotMeANickel.com. He's got a couple albums worth of MP3s available for free download there. I went to high school with the guy at Norwich Free Academy in Norwich, CT, and it's cool to see him doing well, and making good music.

p. As always, I watched 5 games on Monday night, and the one I learned the most from was the New Orleans-Atlanta game. Very simply, New Orleans deserved to lose the game, and I haven't seen or heard anybody acknowledge that. I take that as a reaffirmation that my effort is worth the time.

Brent Grimes got called for two horrible pass-interference penalties, on plays where he reached around his man to play the ball. Those two plays directly led to 14 points being scored, and the Saints won by 3. The officials bogusly penalized ST&NO Favorite Thomas DeCoud on an even better play in the fourth quarter too, but Garrett Hartley subsequently missed a Field Goal, so it didn't affect the scoreboard. The Saints are a very good team, and they don't need any bonus help, but apparently you can't breathe on their receivers. It reminded me of the 2006 NBA Finals, when Dwyane Wade got "fouled" practically every time he touched the ball, and it disgusted me just as much to watch.

q. Jonathan Vilma deserves credit for sealing the win for New Orleans. He intercepted Chris Redman with 3 minutes to go in the game. Then, after the Saints arrogantly tried a fake field goal, rather than taking the points and going up 6, Vilma tackled the formidable Jason Snelling cold in the open field, a yard short of the first down on 4th and 2. He made the plays that were there to be made.

r. While I'm on the topic of the Saints, here's an E! True Hollywood Story for you. Or maybe it's a Letterman-style Top 2 list. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Top 2 Things Ted Bartlett Currently Doesn't Give A Damn About (And Al Roker's Forecast Calls For No Change:)

1. Whether or not the Colts or Saints go 16-0, and on a related note, whether or not they rest their starters.

2. Who wins the NFL MVP Award.

Going 16-0 doesn't matter to anything. All it would do is create something which Peter King would someday mistakenly call a factoid (even though it's actually a fact). The only thing that matters is going 3-0 (or 4-0) in the Playoffs. Plus, the whole thing puts Mercury Morris back in the spotlight, and he's a jerk who doesn't deserve it.

As for the MVP Award, really, who cares? I may start caring if somebody other than a QB or RB can win, other than the rare Lawrence Taylor in 1986. (Since the AP award began in 1957, only DT Alan Page, K Mark Moseley, and Taylor have won the award from positions other than QB or RB. Taylor is the only winner for the Pro Football Writers Association award, which began in 1975. This is an absolute farce.)

Remember ST&NO Rule #1: If reporters vote for it, and decide it, it's usually not particularly worth paying attention to. That includes any and all power rankings, the NFL All-Pro team, all season-ending awards in all sports, and membership in all Halls of Fame. Reporters often mean well, and they add some value to the overall football discourse, but the value they add ends when they're not asking questions, finding things out, and reporting those things. When you ask them to judge something, most can't get past the very obvious, or what other people tell them, and nearly all are biased by what they consider to be the most interesting story. While that's understandable, given the fact that they're in the interesting story business, it's also self-serving, and represents noise rather than a reflection of truth.

s. The more I watch Chad Henne, the more I like his mechanics, all the way through the process of playing QB. I most especially like the way he carries out his fakes after he hands off the ball. You can tell that he's very well coached, both at the collegiate level and the professional level.

t. Speaking of good coaching, if Head Coaching jobs were being handed out based only upon excellence as a coordinator, Mike Mularkey would be looking pretty good for a shot at another job. People who know things about offense, and pay attention, know that Mularkey has been getting a lot of production out of some pretty marginal talent the last two seasons. It's equal parts scheme, knowing the capabilities of his players, and getting his guys to execute, but Atlanta's offense overachieves. Remember - Mularkey didn't get fired in Buffalo; he resigned in 2006 because he didn't see eye-to-eye with the recently hired Marv Levy. He's up there with Houston's Kyle Shanahan on offense, and the Broncos' Mike Nolan, Cincinnati's Mike Zimmer, and Arizona's Bill Davis on defense as guys who I think are adding a great deal of value to their sides of the ball.

u. I tend to dislike University of Texas players, because they have a well-known reputation for being coddled in Austin, and often coming into the NFL as soft players. A limitation of making evaluations from a distance is that you sometimes have to rely on information which may or may not be meaningful, such as the fact that coaches are prohibited from cursing at players at UT. That's pretty absurd in my opinion, like the urban legend about stress cards in basic training.

I didn't take to Brian Orakpo much coming out of college, partially due to the UT factor. Turns out, he's very good, and he's brought a lot to the table for Oakland. He has had a very good rookie season, but he was dominant on Sunday against the Raiders' bad offensive line and indecisive JaMarcus Russell. I still prefer Knowshon Moreno to Orakpo for the long haul, and I still think the Redskins should have taken Michael Oher (after the Packers should have taken Michael Oher). Orakpo was a good choice though, and is a good player, so I missed on that one.

v. I said a couple weeks ago that I was pretty sure that the Chiefs didn't regret acquiring Matt Cassel, and he's proceeded to have the two worst games of his career the last two weeks. His ability is very clear, so I still don't think they regret it, but he needs to step it up, and buy Todd Haley and Scott Pioli some cover. Kansas City has an aggressive local sports media, led by Adam Teicher and Jason Whitlock. Whitlock has already renamed Pioli as Scott Egoli, so it would be mighty helpful to this regime if they and Cassel could finish the season stronger than they've been showing, and feel like there's something to build on.

w. A vital part of a 3-step drop passing play is that the outside blocker on the throw side (usually the Tackle) needs to cut the Defensive End and get him on the ground. The 49ers RT, Adam Snyder, failed to cut Darnell Dockett twice in the first half Monday night, resulting in an Interception by Dockett, and another deflection by Dockett, which Alex Smith caught himself, and promptly was tackled for a 6-yard loss. Neither play was Smith's fault; his job is to get to the top of his drop, and let the ball go. Snyder's job is to clear the throwing lane.

x. Speaking of guys clearly not doing their jobs (and jumping back to the Dallas game because of the topic), Tony Dungy was right on when he was asked if coaching was the problem in Dallas. He said that he knows Terence Newman has been coached to jam a WR and re-route him in Cover-2, and that coaching definitely wasn't the problem on the big Vincent Jackson 39-yard catch on 3rd and 12 (right after the aforementioned Ware injury).

That was the key play of the game, and Newman didn't make it. As the play happened live, I yelled out "Where's the f$%^&* jam, 41?" I was glad Dungy called him out, although I bet he wasn't moved to profanity like I was. I've always thought Newman was highly overrated, by virtue of being a Cowboy. It comes with wearing the blue star, I am afraid.

y. Usually, when a defensive lineman is drafted highly, you expect him to be a big sack guy. The Bengals once drafted Justin Smith fourth overall, in 2001. His career high in sacks, mostly as a Right DE in a 40-front, was 8.5 in his rookie season. He had 6.5, 5, 8, 6, 7.5, and 2 in his next five seasons, which are respectable numbers, but not for an open-side DE drafted that highly.

Smith signed a 6-year $45 million deal with San Francisco in 2008, and moved to 5-technique in a 30-front. It's the role he should have been playing all along, because he's always been a physical, block-defeating player more than a speed-rushing player. It's not too different than the highly drafted Derrick Harvey from the Jaguars, or Jamaal Anderson for the Falcons (who moved to DT eventually). Their skill sets are just better suited to playing with physicality than with speed. (Harvey got only his second sack of the year Sunday, and Anderson has 0.5).

Anyway, Smith was dominant on Monday night, and consistently held the point of attack, while often penetrating and disrupting the Cardinals offense. It sure seemed like he is earning his money. I was also very impressed with the pass-rushing skills of Ahmad Brooks, who used to be just a MLB.

z. Another rookie I criticized for seeming to be soft was Beanie Wells, and he continues to play like he isn't. His TD run early in the 4th quarter Monday night was a man's TD run, all second effort. He did fumble later in the 4th quarter, but it was on a kill-shot by Dashon Goldson, who had a couple of those in Monday night's game.

aa. Genetics are a funny thing. In my family, we have something called the Bartlett Calves. My dad and all his siblings have them, and all my siblings and I have them, even my 8-year old half-sister Abby. The Bartlett Calves are notable for being disproportionately muscular and large, compared to the rest of our bodies. I am 6 feet tall and weigh 235 pounds, and when flexed, my calves are 18 inches around, which is 3-4 inches bigger than the average man's calf, and an inch bigger than the average man's neck.

I bring up this genetic oddity, because it makes me feel a certain kinship with Frank Gore, who has thunder thighs like whoa. He's found out a way to make good professional use of his thighs, because they're what give him such impressive power in traffic. Mine don't really come in too useful as an accounting manager and blogger.

ab. The jury is in as far as I am concerned for San Francisco. The 49ers are on the right track, and ST&NO Favorite Alex Smith has definitely emerged as their long-term QB. They have 2 first-round picks this season, which are both going to be in the 10-15 area. They need a CB and an offensive lineman with those picks, or maybe even two offensive linemen. This team is not far at all from the playoffs, and they're not even going to miss by much this season.

ac. The Cardinals are still legitimate championship contenders, but they got their hind parts kicked Monday night. The result of the game was more a reflection of good play by the Niners than it was of bad play by the Cardinals. The bright spot for Arizona was the excellent Adrian Wilson, who baited Smith into a dumb INT, and was around the ball constantly, the whole game.

4. I couldn't agree more with TJ Johnson's piece about deferring the option yesterday, and a smart analyst got out ahead of me before I wrote about it, which happens once in awhile with a Tuesday slot. I'm always glad to see an in-house MHR guy do it. Big up TJ! If you haven't read his article, you should. So should Don Banks (and Dan Fouts.)

From Banks:

• Did I hear that right, the Broncos won the coin toss to start their game at Indy and deferred to the Colts? And Peyton Manning? Why exactly would you give Manning the chance to get the ball in his hands any more than you absolutely have to? What were you thinking, Josh McDaniels? That's a dubious, rookie-like call for the Broncos new head coach. I do believe McDaniels was guilty of overconfidence in his defense.

My two cents was going to be that each team gets the ball kicked to them to start one half, and there's no way around that fact, so if you consider just this fact, it's utterly meaningless which half a particular team gets their opportunity to receive. TJ goes much further, and finds that there is actually evidence that teams who get the ball to start the second half tend to experience more success. Very interesting stuff.

5. That first-rounder from the Bears is looking really good right now. Chicago fell to 5-8 Sunday, and I like them to finish 6-10. They play at Baltimore and home against Minnesota before finishing at Detroit. For the Broncos' playoff chances, I'd like to see the Bears beat the Ravens, but I doubt it happens. A 6-10 record is probably good for a pick in the neighborhood of 9th or 10th overall. I gave a cursory look at the remaining schedules of every team with a losing record, and this is what I came up with for season-ending records, and way-too-early possible picks.

1. St. Louis 1-15 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma

2. Tampa Bay 1-15 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska

3. Detroit 2-14 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma

4. Kansas City 3-13 Eric Berry S Tennessee

5. Cleveland 4-12 Russell Okung T Oklahoma State

6. Oakland 4-12 Carlos Dunlap DE Florida

7. Buffalo 5-11 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame

8. Washington 5-11 Trent Williams T Oklahoma

9. San Francisco ~~Carolina~~ 5-11 Joe Haden CB Florida

10. Seattle 6-10 Anthony Davis T Rutgers

11. Denver ~~Chicago~~ 6-10

12. San Francisco 7-9

13. Pittsburgh 7-9

14. Houston 8-8

15. Tennessee 8-8

With a 10th or 11th pick, you can get yourself a difference-making defensive player like a Terrence Cody, Rolando McClain, or Brandon Spikes. You could also go outside the box, and draft a guy like C.J. Spiller from Clemson, who projects as a major home-run threat, a la Chris Johnson, at the NFL level. You have to admit, he'd make a nice tandem with Knowshon Moreno. My move, though, might be to try to trade down, and enjoy some of the depth of this Draft. (I say try, because you can't always do it.) I am treading kind of lightly with this line of thinking, because I am a well-known believer that players are better than draft picks. (A player is a real asset, and a draft pick is a derivative asset; when you're needing to operate now, it's better to have a barrel of oil than a contract guaranteeing the delivery of a barrel of oil at a future date and price.)

To me, the Broncos could get back once or twice to #20 or so, and take someone like either Mike or Maurkice Pouncey from Florida, if they elect to enter the draft. (Incidentally, I think Florida is going to lose a bunch of underclassmen.) Both are 6-5 320-pound interior offensive linemen, and would fill what I think is the Broncos' biggest roster need. The overall point, though, is that it's good to be in the position the Broncos are in right now, with this pick coming in higher than their record would earn. For those who were sure the Broncos erred in trading their own pick rather than Chicago's, I'd hope they remember that you don't know how things are going to play out until they play out.

6. Bad news emerged for QB-needy teams yesterday that Washington junior Jake Locker will return for his senior season. It was not altogether unexpected, but I believe that Locker would have been the first QB selected, and maybe the number-1 overall pick. His talent as a thrower and runner is way ahead of the other guys in this class. The guy who benefits is Sam Bradford, because if he checks out healthy, his size and arm are both a bit better than Jimmy Clausen's. I, personally, am not in love with either guy. Bradford looks like a young Matt Hasselbeck to me, while a comparison for Clausen doesn't come to me so easily. Clausen is short, average athletically, looks like he needs to get a lot stronger, and has an average arm. He looks a bit like a young Drew Brees, before Drew worked so hard to become what he became. I am reluctant to make that comparison, but it's the best one I can come up with.

7. Retired for John Elway.

That's all I have for this week. We'll be back next Tuesday with more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Until then, have a fantastic Raiders Week, and Go Broncos!

Miami@Jacksonville The View from the Stadium

Tkopa — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 01:25:32 -0000

It was a good day at the stadium, Oh yea, we lost. Sorry. You know what? I am not that disappointed. This team played very hard right to the end. We didn't have all of our muscle in today and even if we did, Miami has a lot of muscle. Miami looks to be rounding out as a playoff caliber team. We are not quite there yet, but we aren't as far off as we were a few weeks ago. We could have won, we almost won. In fact, the defense took it to them hard. If we had one more play on offense our playoff hopes would be strongly alive. That's OK, the Jaguars are OK, so let's take a look at it. By the way, if you stare hard enough at this picture you can see Jonathan and Collin, but you have to look for a long time to see them.

The game didn't start out very well. Jaxson DeVille got hung up on his high-wire act and hung upside down for almost 10 minutes as they tried to figure out how to get him down. As Curtis Dvorak hung 100 feet up over a stadium in a mascot outfit, I wonder if this thought passed his mind "How did my life come to this?".

In the first quarter, the Jaguars were just as hung up. I think Miami had the ball for 12 minutes and the Jaguars got to run all of 6 plays. It was clear Miami was the better team coming out of the gate. One thing about Miami since Bill took over, they are physical. I think the beating Houston gave David took a toll as David did not look sharp. The Dolphins smelled blood.

By the middle of the second quarter the dominance was complete. Miami drove down again and scored on a Chad Henne roll-out. Chad would begin a streak of 17 straight completions that the Jaguars struggled to stop. Everything was open for Miami, runs up the middle, reverses and receivers. We were dead. It was a complete beat down in the making.

Then something began to happen. The offense woke up. The blocking got better and the running and passing began to happen. Maurice ripped off a nine yard run and then Jennings ripped off a ten yard run. Both up the middle. At the goal line we saw what might have been Greg Jones final important play. He held open the Miami defense just long enough to get MJD through.

The defense woke up at this point. Miami had 14 points and the defense said that was enough. They began to get to Chad Henne and rattle him. Hitting began to happen and the ball began to come out. Gerald Alexander forced a fumble and Anthony Smith recovered it. Both of those guys have been playing very well and we have the nucleus of a very good defense in the making. 14-7 Miami at halftime.

Third quarter was one of the most fun quarters of football to watch in the stadium this season. Derrick Harvey set the tone of the second half with a huge sack. He played really well again today.

With the defense beginning their shutdown, the offense had to pick it up. The field was soggy and Maurice slipped a lot. No excuse, Ricky Williams got his 100 yards, but Maurice couldn't do it. They had him running back punts today and nothing good happened. Then lighting struck. Torry Holt pulled a vanishing move and reappeared behind the defense. David scrambled to his right and launched a ball that seemed to move in slow motion. The tension was amazing as we watched the high arc and the ever so slow decent. Please Torry please!!!

Got it! If I blew up this photo you could see the size of his hands. They look like a bushel basket. Torry didn't score but another catch of his had the Jaguars on the 8 yard line. Since they had their quota of red zone touchdowns for the game, it was time for a field goal.

Miami punts, Jacksonville punts, Gerald Alexander forces another fumble and recovers. We are on the 35 yard line. Just get a field goal, please! We can't move the ball and punt. Scobee for 57 yards? I would have tried it.

Miami punts and then the Jaguars fail to convert on fourth down while on the Miami 45 yard line. All we wanted was a field goal, please! Miami ball, Derrick Cox intercepts! A beautiful interception by the 103 best corner back in the draft. Once again, the Jaguars can't move the ball and punt. The defense holds and forces Miami to punt. The Jaguars fail to convert on fourth down again.

The defense had given the offense the ball four times to get 2 field goals or one touchdown. There was no way it was going to happen. Why did it end this way? Maurice could not get it going. Could it be he doesn't have 16 game legs? Is it the offensive line that can't block for him? He seems tired, they seem tired. I don't know.

So why do I feel OK with this game? The defense fought hard without Rahean and Big John. In Miami's last six possessions, the Jaguar defense forced four punts and two turnovers. They adjusted beautifully at halftime and owned the Dolphins in the second half. Miami is a decent team and this defense got it together and almost won the game for us. It was a pleasure watching this defense come alive.

The offense is where things didn't go well today. David didn't play well. Mike Sims-Walker is hurt and Torry can't carry a game. There was no third receiver today. Maurice looks like he has tired legs and can't break tackles as well as earlier in the season. Sadly, Greg Jones suffered a close your eyes leg injury I caught on camera. I won't show it today. He couldn't put any weight on it as he left.

We were beat, but this team fought hard every minute of the game. We are not quite a powerful team yet. We knew this was a year of finding new guys and Gene has done just that. If this team goes 8-8, I am calling it a great success. It is the start of what can get better, much better. This is a good team that knows it can compete. It is a bit tired right now, the veterans, especially on the offensive line, are not holding up. On the other hand, the rookies, this year's rookies and last year's rookies are coming on. Russel Allen is a great run stopping linebacker. Give Gene another year. In the mean time, prayers for Greg, and get ready for the Colts. The last game in the stadium this year is four days away. It was fun in the stadium this year and I think this team deserves a standing ovation.

- Terry O'Brien

Derrick Harvey playing smart

Tkopa — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 02:36:38 -0000

Derrick Harvey looks like he is gaining confidence in what is happening on the field. He may not get the sacks, but he is still owning his territory. In this sequence, the Texans are in the Red Zone. Let's see what play they call and how well Derrick reacts.

From Jags Texans

Derrick is on the line but Andre Johnson begins to plant and step back. A screen is setting up.

From Jags Texans

Yep, Derrick senses it.

From Jags Texans

He reacts, now is he in time?

From Jags Texans

Notice how Derek Cox forces the action to the inside?

From Jags Texans

Gain of two. Nice job Derrick.

Jaguars defeat Texans 23-18 in a mistake filled game

Jonathan Loesche — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 21:16:15 -0000

More photos » by Stephen Morton - AP

Play of the game right here.

Browse more photos »

Some games simply defy logic, and this game would be one of them. The Jaguars defeated the Texans in a game seemingly neither wanted to win, based on the bizarre mix of miscues and turnovers. However, all that matters is that the Jaguars are 7-5 and still in control of their destiny in the AFC's Wild Card race.

The play of the game was undoubtably Derrick Harvey sacking Houston QB Matt Schaub on Houston's first offensive play. The play resulted in Schaub seperating his shoulder and missing the majority of the first half. Backup QB Rex Grossman came in and lead the Texans offense straight into the gutter, posting a 5.6 QB rating in the process.

The Jaguars used this to their advantage and managed to build a 17-0 lead before Schaub managed to return. However, the Jaguars had their own fair share of issues. Maurice Jones-Drew was stuffed on consecutive runs at the goal line that cost the Jaguars seven points.

When Matt Schaub return to the game, the Texans offense went into high gear. He led the Texans quickly downfield and got them within 17-7 to end the half.

The second half was where the game began to turn into the surreal. Maurice Jones-Drew slipped in the Jaguars end zone resulting in a safety, and then the usually sure handed Mike Thomas fumbled a punt inside the Jaguars 20.

However, the Jaguars defense played perhaps it's best sixty minutes of the season, without Rashean Mathis no less. The Jaguars held following the Thomas fumble and forced the Texans to settle for three points. Gerald Alexander gets a game ball for playing perhaps the best game any player has had in the secondary.

The moment of the game that will be the most talked about had yet to come, though. Half way through the 4th quarter the Texans had a 1st and goal on the Jaguars four yard line. Coach Gary Kubiak decided to throw a half back pass that would be intercepted by Gerald Alexander.

Simply put, I can't explain how or why that play happened other than it's the Houston Texans. Despite the Texans getting a late touchdown, it was clear the game was over after the interception.

With the Oakland Raiders beating the Steelers, the Jaguars have a major lead over most of their other playoff competitors. This sets up a major game next week against the Miami Dolphins. A win over the Dolphins, along with a very winnable game against Cleveland to end the year, would mean at worst the Jaguars would have a winning record in 2009.

Game Preview Week 13: Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jonathan Loesche — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 20:01:50 -0000

Houston Texans(5-6)	Week #13	Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5)
	VS.

Date:	December 6th, 2009	Location:	Jacksonville, FL
Time:	4:15 PM EST	Stadium:	The Jack
TV:	CBS	Favorite:	Pick Em
Radio:	Click Here	Over/Under:	46.5
Weather:	High 50's with a slight chance of rain	Injury Report:	Click Here
SBN Coverage:	Battle Red Blog	Coverage Map	Click Here

Sorry for not getting this up earlier, and sorry for the lack of front page stuff in general over the last few days. Anyway, the Jaguars come back limping from San Francisco to take on a Houston team playing for it's season. It's no secret the Texans have been a disappointment this season. Expected to go to the playoffs and starting 5-3, the Texans have dropped three straight divisional games and virtually sunk their season.

The Jaguars are still in the thick of the playoff race, and despite all of the negativity surrounding the debacle in SF, would still be in the playoffs as a sixth seed if the playoffs started today. With games against the Colts and Patriots still to come, the Jaguars need to capitalize on all of their remaining games.

Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense

First and foremost, the Jaguars offensive line has to rebound from easily it's worst showing in weeks. Eugene Monroe turned his season around with a solid performance against Mario Williams back in Week 3, and not having to deal with Super Mario would be great for David.

Former All-Pro CB Duanta Robinson has been woefully under performing for the Texans. Going up against Mike Sims-Walker and Torry Holt, I would expect the Jaguars to actively target Robinson's side as much as they can.

The Texans do feature one of the best up and coming players in the league with LB Brian Cushing. The last two weeks the Jaguars have struggled with linebackers keying in on Maurice Joens-Drew, and I would expect to see much of the same from Cushing.

Speaking of Maurice Jones-Drew, it would be nice to see him get back to his old self. He has been held to just 141 yards and 1 touchdown over the last two weeks. He still needs two touchdowns to break Fred Taylor's franchise record, and is still a manageable distance from setting the franchise's single season rushing record.

Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense

I'm not going to really bother much with the Jags run defense and Texans run offense because we all expect to see Matt Schaub throw it 40+ times on Sunday.

It is very simple for the Jaguars defense, they don't have a pass rush and they lack Rashean Mathis, one of the only corners who could effectively cover Andre Johnson. Derrick Harvey has been showing some signs of life recently, but he needs to actually get to the quarterback occasionally.

The Jaguars are still sitting at 10 sacks and are running out of chances for setting the record for futility in that department. Good thing we still have Cleveland on our schedule.

Offensively, the Texans rank 3rd in the NFL in throwing the ball. Matt Schaub has finally been healthy for an entire year and it has shown. The Texans sport one of the best WRs in the NFL in Andre Johnson, and covering him is going to be the top priority for the Jaguars.

Expect to see alot of double or even triple coverage on Johnson to make up for the lack of pass rush on Schaub. The Jaguars do catch a break by not having to deal with All-Pro TE Owen Daniels, who would've perhaps been one weapon too many for the Jags to handle.

Player On The Hot Seat

The Jaguars Offensive Line

After a disasterous performance in San Francisco, the big boys up front need to get their heads screwed on straight and give David time to throw the ball. The Texans are going to put up points, and we'll need to as well.

Prediction

Jaguars 31
Texans 27

The Texans race out to a 17-3 lead before a series of events only the Texans can manage to pull off transpire. MJD scores his first TD, the Texans fumble the ensuing kick off, taken in one play later by MJD from 23 yards out. After some back and forth, Torry Holt finally gets his first TD as a Jaguar with 2:33 to play. Gary Kubiak decided to challenge, but the play is upheld. The lost time out costs the Texans as Andre Johnson catches the ball at the 8 yard line only to be tackled in bounds as the clock runs out.

Week 12 Game Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers

Jonathan Loesche — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 13:29:05 -0000

San Francisco 49ers (4-6)	Week #12	Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4)
	VS.

Date:	November 29nd, 2009	Location:	San Francisco, CA
Time:	4:15 PM EST	Stadium:	Candlestick Park
TV:	CBS	Favorite:	49ers -3
Radio:	Click Here	Over/Under:	40.5
Weather:	Sunny, mid 50's	Injury Report:	Click Here
SBN Coverage:	Niners Nation	Coverage Map	Click Here

Well, this is it guys. Tim Tebow's final home game. Standing in his way is a dilapidated Seminole team that is a shell of the 90's powerhouse. Oh wait, there's another football game this weekend involving a team from Northeast Florida? Could've fooled me.

The Jaguars make their second trip out west this season to take on a fast sinking 49ers team. After starting the year 3-1, Mike Singletary's bunch has lost five of their last six. In addition, they can thank Jay Cutler for their 10-6 win over Chicago a few weeks ago.

The similiarities between Singletary and Jack Del Rio are striking on the surface. Both are ex-Pro Bowl linebackers who worked their way up the ranks before becoming head coaches. Both want their teams to run the ball, stop the run, and punch the other team in the mouth. And both have issues with getting the most out of their teams on a consistent basis.

Will the Jaguars get to 7-4 or will they have another bad west coast trip?

Jaguars Offense vs 49ers Defense

The 49ers rank 30th in the NFL against the pass, giving up 256 yards a game. Despite signing Nate Clements to the richest defensive contract in NFL history, the 49ers only have six interceptions this year off QBs not named Jay Cutler. The 49ers also rank 22nd in the NFL in sacks. Perhaps the most chilling stat for the 49ers is that their pass defense has gotten worse over that six game span. The team has given up 286 yards a game, including four 300 yard games.

Needless to say, statistically this should prove to be a good day for David Garrard and the Jaguars WR corp. Mike Sims-Walker has been favoring a hamstring injury, but practiced all week. However, I sat here last week and said Maurice Jones-Drew would get 200 yards and 4 TDs against the Bills run defense.

Where the 49ers defense excels is against the run. Led by All-World MLB Patrick Willis, the 49ers are 6th in the NFL against the run. In addition, they are tied for second for the lowest per carry average, 3.4 yards.

The offensive line will need to play much better than the siv they were against the Bills. The rock solid line that rose to the occassion against the Jets needs to make another appearence if the Jaguars want to win.

Maurice Jones-Drew needs just 74 yards to hit 1,000 and 2 touchdowns to set the franchise record for rushing TDs. I say he breaks 1,000 and ties the franchise record this week, before breaking it next week vs Houston.

Jaguars Defense vs 49ers Offense

The Alex Smith experiment returns for an encore performance against the Jaguars. Since replacing Shaun Hill in Week 7 of the regular season, Smith has put up respectable numbers in 2009. Smith boasts a 81.5 QB rating this year, a far cry from his career average of 66.5.

The 49ers passing offense flows through All-Pro Tight End Vernon Davis. Davis is easily the team's leading receiver with 51 receptions, 601 yards, and 8 touchdowns. The Jaguars have never done well against receiving tight ends (see Clark, Dallas) so it will be a challenge to keep Davis contained.

The most talked about player in the 1st round this fear was WR Michal Crabtree. Since Crabtree finally signed with the team he has put up ok numbers, but nothing mind blowing. All I can say is that I'm much happier seeing him on the opposing sideline this week.

Since the Jaguars have returned to the 4-3 defense, the returns have been excellent. Discouting the big play to Terrell Owens, the Jaguars limited the Bills to just 250 yards of offense last week. Derrick Harvey's continued growth is promising, though more sacks would certainly be welcomed.

Once again the Jaguars will be without Rashean Mathis. Tyron Brackenridge did a good job vs Owens despite what the numbers say, and if nothing else, at least we won't see Reggie Nelson at corner again.

Player On The Hot Seat

David Garrard, QB

The 49ers will likely sellout to stop Jones-Drew and that means David will need to be on his game on Sunday. Expect to see the Jaguars throw early and often to take advantage of the bad pass defense.

Prediction

Jaguars 24

49ers 13

-Jonathan Loesche

San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: A Prospector's Guide

Fooch — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:00:14 -0000

vs.

The 49ers look to get back on the winning track against a quirky Jacksonville Jaguars squad. I have always been intrigued by the Jaguars because something doesn't add up about them. They are 6-4, but something just seems off about that. Going through their 2009 statistics (listed at the bottom), I noticed that they've been outscored this season by 36 points. The only other team above .500 with a negative scoring differential is Denver (-13)...and I've always questioned Denver's early success (which is certainly bearing fruit now). Will the Jaguars keep it up the rest of the season?

The 49ers host the Jaguars in what will be the 3rd meeting between the two teams in the series, and the first at Candlestick Park. The last time the two teams squared off was in 2005 in Jacksonville, when the Jaguars defeated the 49ers 10-9.

The 49ers enter the upcoming game following a 30-24 loss to the Packers at Lambeau Field last weekend. In that game, the Packers defense was able to hold off a second half surge by the 49ers offense to seal the victory. QB Alex Smith connected on three touchdown passes in the final two quarters of play, which included a 38-yard strike to rookie
WR Michael Crabtree for his first career touchdown, a 24-yard toss to TE Vernon Davis for his 8th score of the season and a 10-yard pass to RB Frank Gore, marking his 4th consecutive game with a touchdown.

The 49ers have won 6 out of their last 8 games at Candlestick Park. In those games, San Francisco has rushed for over 100 yards in all but one contest.

49ers-Jaguars Connections
Coaching Connections
• 49ers assistant strength coach Mark Uyeyama worked as a graduate assistant from 2001-2002 and an assistant in 2003 at Arizona State under Jaguars offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who was then head coach. Jaguars defensive line coach Ted Monachino served in the same position with Arizona State during that time.
• 49ers QB Shaun Hill was coached by Jaguars assistant head coach/tight ends Mike Tice from 2002-2005 when Tice was the head coach for the Minnesota Vikings.
• 49ers rookie RB Glen Coffee was recruited and coached by Jaguars QBs coach Mike Shula when Shula was the head coach at Alabama (2003-06).
• 49ers DE Justin Smith was coached by Jaguars LBs coach Mark Duffner in Cincinnati from 2001-2002 when Duffner was the defensive coordinator there.

RAMS RE-UNITED - 49ers WR Isaac Bruce and CB Dre’ Bly were teammates with Jaguars WR Torry Holt for the St. Louis Rams from 1999-2002, winning a Super Bowl together in 1999. Bruce and Holt remained with the Rams and played together until 2007.

NOR-CAL CONNECTIONS – RB Maurice Jones-Drew was born in Anticoh, and still calls it home. Jones-Drew prepped at national powerhouse De La Salle High School, which won a record 151 straight games from 1992-2003. During the three years Jones-Drew starred there (1999-2002), he kept the streak alive, never losing a game.

HELLO AGAIN – 49ers SS Michael Lewis and Jaguars T Tra Thomas were teammates in Philadelphia from 2002-2006. Lewis, Thomas and Jaguars S Sean Considine all played together with the Eagles in 2005 and 2006. 49ers LB Takeo Spikes played on the same defense with Considine and was a teammate of Thomas’ while in Philadelphia in 2007.

GOLDEN DOMERS - 49ers WR Arnaz Battle and Jaguars T Jordan Black were teammates at Notre Dame for four seasons (1999-2002).

NATIONAL CHAMPS - 49ers DT Ray McDonald was a teammate of Jaguars DE Derrick Harvey and S Reggie Nelson at Florida. They were part of a National Championship team in 2006.

ROCKY TOP - 49ers NT Aubrayo Franklin and Jaguars DT John Henderson played on the same defensive line at the University of Tennessee in 2001.

FORMER 49ERS - Jaguars DL Atiyyah Ellison spent two years with the 49ers, serving on the active roster in 2007, and as a member of the practice squad in 2008.

Series Highlights
Matchups: 2
Series Record: Jaguars Lead Series 2-0
49ers Home Record vs. Jaguars: None
First Meeting: 9/12/99, Jaguars win 41-3
Last Meeting: 12/18/05, Jaguars win 10-9
Current Streak: Lost 2
Longest 49ers Win Streak: None
Longest Jaguars Win Streak: 2
Most 49ers Points: 9 (12/18/05)
Most Jaguars Points: 4 (9/12/99)
49ers Shutouts: None
Jaguars Shutouts: None

JACKSONVILLE 10, SAN FRANCISCO 9
At Jacksonville, FL, December 18, 2005

The San Francisco 49ers lost 10-9 to Jacksonville in what Head Coach Mike Nolan termed the most physical game of the season. The 49ers entered the game with six rookies in the starting lineup, including four on offense. Rookie RB Frank Gore started in place of the injured RB Kevan Barlow (knee) and gained over 100 combined yards with 79 yards rushing and 57 yards receiving. His most impressive play was at the end of the 1st half when he caught a screen pass from QB Alex Smith and raced down the right sideline for a 47-yard gain to the Jacksonville 30-yard line to set up a 47-yard FG by K Joe Nedney with one second left in the 1st half.

The 49ers opened the game with an 8-play, 80-yard drive that ended in the first of three Nedney FGs for a 3-0 lead. A big defensive play helped the 49ers take the 3-0 lead into the 2nd quarter. On 4th-and-1 from the San Francisco 6-yard line, DE Marques Douglas stopped FB Greg Jones for no gain and the 49ers took over on downs. Jacksonville converted two, 3rd-down plays on a 71-yard drive in the 2nd quarter that ended when QB David Garrard broke free from LB Julian Peterson on his way to a 13-yard TD for a 7-3 lead. The 49ers regained possession deep in their own territory with just 24 seconds left to play in the 1st half. Instead of taking a knee and allowing time to run out, the 49ers attempted a high percentage screen pass with the hopes of being able to break one for a big play. A pass from Smith to Gore in the right flat went for a 47-yard gain, with Gore sprinting down the sideline to the Jacksonville 30-yard line with 6 seconds left to play. Nedney nailed a 47-yard FG for a 7-6 halftime deficit.

After a scoreless 3rd quarter, the 49ers took a 9-7 lead on the first play of the 4th quarter with a 33-yard FG by Nedney. Smith completed a 28-yard pass to WR Johnnie Morton to get the 49ers in FG range. Jacksonville responded by taking the ensuing kick and advancing on a 10-play, 47-yard drive that ended in a 32-yard FG for a 10-9 lead. The Jaguars drive was aided when Nedney’s kickoff went out of bounds, allowing Jacksonville to start the drive at their own 40-yard line. The 49ers gained just 15 yards on their next four drives and committed one turnover when Smith was intercepted.

2009 Statistics

49ERS (rank)		JAGUARS (rank)
4-6 (2nd NFCW)	Record	6-4 (2nd AFCS)
20.8 (19th)	Points per game	19.9 (21st)
278.5 (27th)	Total Offense	354.0 (12th)
99.0 (24th)	Rushing Offense	136.3 (6th)
179.5 (23rd)	Passing Offense	217.7 (17th)
28:44 (21st)	Possession Avg	30:46 (11th)
21.0 (17th)	Points allowed/gm	23.5 (23rd)
350.8 (22nd)	Total Defense	356.9 (23rd)
94.7 (6th)	Rushing Defense	112.1 (17th)
256.1 (30th)	Passing Defense	244.8 (25th)
19 (t-21st)	Sacks	10 (32nd)
47.9 (2nd)	Punting Avg (Gross)	41.7 (26th)
0 (t-15th)	Turnover Differential	0 (t-15th)

New York Jets Run Offense vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Run Defense

John B — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 15:24:04 -0000

by Peter Morgan - AP

View full size photo »

The Jaguars have one of the worst statistical run defenses in football. The Chiefs did little to try and exploit it last week, running only 12 times. Part of this was due to them playing from behind. The Jets are going to test Jacksonville's new 4-3 base defense much more up front.

Jacksonville hopes its strength will come from up the middle and tackles John Henderson and Terrance Knighton. Henderson is a multi time Pro Bowler. Knighton is a rookie space eater. He's been pretty good defending the run, although he's less likely to beat his man and penetrate. He's more of a Sione Pouha type. Atiyyah Ellison will rotate in with them, a guy who doesn't do anything poorly but also doesn't do anything particularly well.

Derrick Harvey will line up at one end. He weighs in at 281 pounds, big for a 4-3 end. His play against the run seems to have improved a bit with the move to the 4-3. On the other side, the Jaguars will play a pair of smallish ends, Quentin Groves, a small speedy guy who is something of a liability in the run game and Bryan Smith, an even smaller player. They are in there to provide the pass rush. Jacksonville hopes the Jets run away from them, which they might if they are lined up against D'Brickashaw Ferguson, and Gang Green is best running it right.

Daryl Smith is Jacksonville's best linebacker against the run. Smith does everything well. For my money, he's one of the most overlooked players in football. He's had success at both middle and outside linebacker during his career. He'll start outside on the weak side. Justin Durant, who starts in the middle does a decent job against the run. Jacksonville wants the tackles to keep him clean. Strong side backer Clint Ingram is the weakest defending the run. I would expect the Jets to target him.

As always, Jacksonville will probably stick 8 in the box against the rookie quarterback, but neither safety Reggie Nelson nor Gerald Alexander has provided Jacksonville much in run support this year, which is stark considering how much their 3-4 base struggled against the run until they switched their scheme last week.

What are the keys? Knighton played nose in the 3-4 so he'll likely line up against Nick Mangold. Mangold has to control him on his own. The idea for any nose tackle is to occupy a pair of blockers. Nick has been great controlling his assignments to this point against more decorated linemen. The strength at the center position springs the run game because the Jets have an extra blocker who does not need to dedicate himself to blocking the nose. The Jets will. Knighton lined up on the left side against the Chiefs. If he does again, that will leave Brandon Moore, Damien Woody, and Tony Richardson to take on an end and linebacker. This looks like it could be a favorable matchup for the Jets.

New York Jets Pass Offense vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Pass Defense

John B — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 13:00:39 -0000

by Peter Morgan - AP

View full size photo »

Jacksonville's defense looked transformed against the Kansas City Chiefs last week. The unit had struggled all season long to generate pressure against opposing quarterbacks all year, 5 in the first 7 games, but registed 3 last Sunday and applied constant pressure. Playing against a suspect offensive line and a quarterback who holds the ball too long had a lot to do with it, but the Jags also changed their scheme. After running a 3-4 defense, a poorly thought out Mangini style scheme change, Jacksonville reverted to using the 4-3 as their base. The Jaguars did display some 3-4 against the Chiefs and zone blitzed a lot to try and confuse the protection. Against a rookie quarterback, expect a lot more of this. Also expect the four first round picks and Brandon Moore on the offensive line to do a lot better against the Jaguars.

Jacksonville's 4-3 has strength built up the middle. John Henderson is still playing at a high level. He registered a sack, a hit, and 5 pressures against the Chiefs. He's joined by Terrence Knighton, a 325 rookie from Temple who does not have a great burst to get to the quarterback but freqently occupies a pair of tacklers to open things up for others. 2008 first round pick Derrick Harvey played inspired football against Kansas City, displaying good power moves and athleticism against Brandon Albert, the talented young left tackle from Virginia. He'll look to duplicate his performance against another young talented left tackle from Virginia, D'Brickashaw Ferguson. The way D'Brickashaw and Nick Mangold are playing, I feel comfortable with the Jets' ability to hold Henderson and Harvey in check.

Bryan Smith will start at left end in place of another 2008 pass rushing draftee Quentin Groves. Groves is raw but has a lot of athletic ability. He can get to the quarterback but it really best served as a situational pass rusher. The Jags will probably use him as a rusher both with his hand on and off the ground. Aside from then, his playing time could be limited because he struggles against the run and is giving up over 60 pounds to Damien Woody. Can you say mismatch? Smith is even smaller than Groves. It will be important for him to get off the line quickly and use his speed against Woody because unless he gets on top of Damien quickly, he will be overpowered.

Daryl Smith is going to play a key role for Jacksonville. The outside linebacker is excellent in pass coverage and will probably draw Dustin Keller frequently. The Jets made Keller Mark Sanchez's primary read against Miami to try and keep things simple and safe. Keller responded with his best game of the year. Keller is going to give Smith all he can handle (as well as linebackers Justin Durant, who is solid in pass coverage and Clint Ingram, who is something of a liability). Smith will also be used as a blitzer. He had 2 sacks and 3 pressures against the Chiefs.

On the outside, there will be plays to be made. The secondary of Rashean Mathis and Derek Cox at corner and Reggie Nelson and Gerald Alexander has been suspect all year, and you can only blame the pass rush to a certain extent. The Jags are giving up over 240 yards through the air. Alexander is nursing a shoulder injury. Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery have the edge here and will all day. Keller also will have a great chance to exploit the safeties in coverage. I'd also look for David Clowney to have an impact. The Jaguars will be aggressive, and the Chiefs burned them long on a safety blitz.

I think the Jets handle the pass rush well. They have a significantly better offensive line than Kansas City. If he has to, Brian Schottenheimer can leave in extra blockers as he frequently did against the Dolphins and give Mark Sanchez time to find the matchups that favor his receivers.

Far too early to slap Maybin with 'bust' label

Brian Galliford — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:45:24 -0000

In the NFL, there's very little room for such novelties as patience and perspective. Aaron Maybin is 21 years old. He entered the 2009 NFL Draft after his sophomore year in college, one in which he led the Big 10 with 12 sacks at Penn State. Throughout the entire pre-draft process, Maybin was labeled with such words as "light," "raw," and "weak" - labels that, for whatever reason, still surprise people when applied to him to this day.

Maybin has now appeared in seven regular season games with the Buffalo Bills. Playing perhaps the most difficult position on an NFL defense aside from cornerback, Maybin's statistical impact has been minimal - he has just four tackles in a rotational role. Naturally, when a first-round pick fails to produce immediately, the "b word" gets floated out there. Sal Maiorana of the Democrat and Chronicle is the first person of prominence that I've heard utter - or in this case, tweet - the "b word" in regards to Maybin.

Sal (and anyone else who's ready to apply the "b word" label as well): don't jump the gun on this kid. Consider the facts.

DE isn't generally an early-impact position
One of the big arguments for the Bills not to draft a defensive end this past April was that, for a team in need of instant impact from its early-round picks, a rookie DE wouldn't produce the way we'd need our first-rounder to produce. That argument was based on the rookie production of the much-heralded 2008 rookie defensive end class. Three ends were drafted in the Top 10 in 2008, and seven in total were taken in the first two rounds. Exactly zero of these players were high-impact, game-changing forces as rookies (and many of them have yet to ascend to that level in their second seasons):

Round-Pick-Player-Team-Stats
1-2: Chris Long, St. Louis Rams - 40 tackles, 4.0 sacks, 1 FF
1-6: Vernon Gholston, New York Jets - 13 tackles
1-8: Derrick Harvey, Jacksonville Jaguars - 19 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT, 2 PD
1-28: Lawrence Jackson, Seattle Seahawks - 29 tackles, 2.0 sacks
2-50: Calais Campbell, Arizona Cardinals - 29 tackles, 1 FF, 1 PD
2-52: Quentin Groves, Jacksonville Jaguars - 13 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 FF, 1 PD
2-54: Jason Jones, Tennessee Titans - 31 tackles, 5.0 sacks, 3 FF, 2 PD

It's worth mentioning, also, that it's traditionally much easier for rookie pass rushers to make an impact in a 3-4 defense than it is to do so in a 4-3, where their responsibilities are more diversified. The only 3-4 player above is Gholston, whose rookie season, statistically and behind the scenes, was terrible under Eric Mangini. Jones, meanwhile, made the switch to DT in Tennessee's system, and his production can, in part, be explained by lining up next to Albert Haynesworth.

Otherwise, this group was highly average. In most cases, you're looking at Chris Kelsay or Ryan Denney numbers. For as much talent as this group has - and this year's group is more talented, by the way - the numbers are well below what we might call "average to above average" NFL defensive end production. It's the nature of the position to start your career slowly when you're a pass rusher, and particularly if you're playing in a 4-3, as most of the above players do.

Round-Pick-Player-Team-Stats
1-11: Aaron Maybin, Buffalo Bills - 4 tackles
1-13: Brian Orakpo, Washington Redskins - 22 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 PD
1-16: Larry English, San Diego Chargers - 10 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 1 FF, 1 PD
1-18: Robert Ayers, Denver Broncos - 7 tackles
2-43: Everette Brown, Carolina Panthers - 7 tackles, 1.0 sack, 1 FF
2-46: Connor Barwin, Houston Texans - 7 tackles, 1.0 sack, 2 PD
2-52: David Veikune, Cleveland Browns - N/A
2-57: Paul Kruger, Baltimore Ravens - 1 tackle
2-63: Cody Brown, Arizona Cardinals - N/A

Again, the 3-4 vs. 4-3 principle applies. Of the first-round picks, English and Ayers play in 3-4 schemes. Orakpo, who played end at Texas, is now Washington's strong-side linebacker, and they use him in a hybrid LB/DE role out of their 4-3 alignment - which means he's doing much of his rushing from a standing position. Maybin is the only first-round rookie end to be used in a traditional 4-3 manner, and that's pretty easy to glean just by his stat line.

Situations can't define busts after seven games
All of that might come across as excuse-making for Maybin - and it's exactly what I'm doing. I'm making excuses for him. The expectation was unreasonably high to begin with, considering his pre-draft hype, and it grew to unmanageable proportions when it became apparent how Buffalo planned to use him after a lengthy training camp holdout (don't forget about that, either).

A small part of me likes the fact that Buffalo refuses to move him all over the field. It's the part of me that understands that Maybin's got the talent to be one of the best at the end position that likes the fact that the Bills are playing him exclusively at that position. All of his reps are taken there, and each week, he looks a little better than the last rushing the passer. His legs are fresh, and with any luck, he'll start making impact plays over the second half of the season.

But the biggest part of me (no anatomy jokes of any kind, please) is a bit perplexed by this decision as well. Buffalo's coaching staff, if they weren't in win-now mode before the season, is definitely at that level now. I find it difficult to fathom that they wouldn't try to find more ways to get Maybin onto the field and into advantageous situations. He's too good an athlete to limit to rotational end work, is he not? Everything that made him a top prospect - that lightning-quick first step, his being a tremendous worker and highly motivated, and with tons of potential - still applies. It's on the coaching staff (much more than it's on Maybin, by the way) for his paltry stat line.

Don't forget about Aaron Schobel, Kelsay and Denney, either. Whether you like them as players or not, these are veterans that have the nuances of the position down. All three have played well this season. That makes it more difficult to get Maybin onto the field - again, unless you start to put more on his plate schematically.

Considering his age, his level of development, the position he plays, and how the Bills are using him, it's literally unfathomable to me how anyone can be surprised about the lack of production we've seen from Maybin. I don't like making excuses for players unless they're valid, but I'll make any excuse for a player being labeled a bust after seven professional games. He's 21. We know his game needs polish. Give him time - the kid's still got the talent and the drive. Screw the "bust" label and apply a little patience for once, folks.