SB Nation - DeMarcus Ware

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

2 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall, left, avoids the tackle of Indianapolis Colts linebacker Gary Brackett in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. Marshall had 21 receptions for 200 yards in the game. The Colts defeated the Broncos 28-16. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Christmas is coming - and I, for one, am hoping for a much more joyous holiday season than I experienced last December. All I got for Christmas last year was the Broncos' historic collapse, and all I had to give was the one scenario that could possibly be worse than the season-ending Chargers game (it involved hypothetically cutting an apple, slipping, and stabbing myself in the groin WHILE watching that game).

I'm not much for moral victories, but today in Donny Deutschland, I will talk about why I feel better about Sunday's loss than I have about any Broncos loss in years. There's no time to waste, so let's not waste any time. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. I learned on Sunday that what I suspected was the case, was in fact, the case. That is, the Broncos can play with Indianapolis, at Indianapolis. It happened a little differently than I thought it would, but the Broncos competed, and got back in the game after getting down in really ugly fashion. Consider these statistics, as I pretend that I care about statistics for a moment. The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 posessions. These measures would tend to indicate victory, but in this case, the Broncos fell a little short.

For next time, we can internalize a few thoughts:

a. The Broncos have the players and schemes to cover the Colts receivers, pressure Peyton Manning, and generally disrupt their offense.

b. The Broncos have the players and schemes to move the ball at will against the Colts defense.

c. As a fan base, we all mistakenly thought to ourselves "Here we go again" when the Colts got up 21-0 after four possessions. We can take this game as a lesson that the past doesn't indicate the future. Those Broncos teams which got their doors blown off by the Colts passing game are definitely not these Broncos.

One general concern is that the Broncos could have run the ball better, and will need to next time. I felt the run scheme was too zone-heavy and horizontal, and it played into the Colts' plan to run-blitz the gaps. A smaller, faster team needs to be man-blocked with a vertical scheme. Those are guys you don't necessarily want moving laterally, because they're comfortable doing so.

The other concern is that at money time, Dallas Clark needed more and better attention. Josh Barrett needed to be on the field manning him up, because he's the best guy in the NFL at covering TEs man-to-man.

All in all, I am proud of the way the Broncos stayed in the game, despite some reasons that lesser men would take to quit. This was really a game which turned on a few plays, and I am pleased to know that the Broncos can compete with Indianapolis, unlike in past years. This week, it's the Raiders, and luckily, JaMarcus Russell will be under center again. Expect Elvis Dumervil to get some shots at him. The Broncos can take care of business at home, and position themselves well to make the postseason. Happy Raiders Week, friends.

2. Information From My Eyes, Broncos at Colts:

a. Andre' Goodman got beat on a crossing route by Pierre Garcon on the first offensive play of the game, and in the moment, I wondered if there was a major speed mismatch. Goodman settled down to play Garcon spectacularly the rest of the game, breaking up four well-thrown balls. Goodman has been terrific all year, but I'd call this his best game as a Bronco.

b. When the Broncos drafted Darcel McBath, I'd never heard of him. I'm very impressed with his play as a rookie, though, and he had a fantastic game Sunday. He separated Dallas Clark from the ball on a 3rd down, and also baited Peyton Manning into his third interception. It's a real bummer that he broke his forearm and is gone for the season, but he showed well when he got the opportunities. I look for him to make a serious run at Renaldo Hill's starting job next season.

c. I really "misunderestimated" the Colts' DTs, Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson. They both played fantastic, and drove the Broncos' interior players backward consistently.

d. Ryan Clady didn't play very well in the running game, which was a departure from what we've been seeing lately. He got pushed backward several times when he lost leverage, and he misread a few run blitzes, and didn't hit the right guy. He's young and growing, and we can only hope he learns from this game.

e. Brandon Marshall was spectacular, of course. It's obvious that Kyle Orton really trusts him to make plays at this point. I wish he trusted Eddie Royal a little more, though. The truth is, though, Royal hasn't come up with some plays when he's had chances to do so.

f. I was happy to see Jabar Gaffney back in the mix this week. He's a pro's pro, and the Broncos offense is better when he is involved.

g. I was pleased with what I saw from Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil, despite the Broncos' lack of sacks. Both played well against the run, and generated pressure against Manning.

h. Peyton Hillis isn't a very good lead blocker, and I think a key part of the trouble the running game had was with the loss of Spencer Larsen. Larsen has been knocking heads the last two weeks, and he wasn't there this time, obviously.

Hillis is a good RB, but he's a true HB, not a FB. The truth is, he is where he should be on the depth chart; the third RB for the Broncos. Zappa said that some DP posters were calling for Knowshon Moreno to be benched, and Hillis to get the starting job. That's not going to happen, and frankly, it's asinine. Hillis could get more opportunity to make plays, but he deserves to be behind Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. There's no question in my mind of that.

i. The Colts' last drive was enabled by missed tackles by Vonnie Holliday (first play of the series) and Mario Haggan (3rd down inside the Broncos 10).

j. Oh, Dallas Clark. Ty Law did a good job on him, but he often was assigned to cover Austin Collie. Wesley Woodyard is a good zone player, but he can't cover a Clark in man-to-man. That 4th-and-4 was badly schemed, because Brian Dawkins shouldn't be manned up on Clark, either.

Finally, at the end of the game, the approach should have been to look at the formation. The power was left, and the only receiving threat was Clark, playing with his hand down on the right side. You need somebody to drive him straight into the ground, so he can't get out in the pattern. That's how I would coach that situation, anyway. Tackle him when he pretends to block, without getting called for holding.

k. D.J. Williams had a very good game, except for the one stupid penalty. Darrell Reid got (another) one of those too, while we're at it.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games

a. I thought Thursday's Browns-Steelers game was pretty riveting, and I almost wish I went (but not quite). Several of my friends tried to get me to go, because everybody in the world was trying to dump their tickets. It was 12 degrees, with 50 mph winds, and felt negative-7 in Cleveland that night. That's a recipe for freezing your hind-parts off, as Omar would say.

The Browns are changing for the better, and I wonder if it saves Eric Mangini's job. They're doing some very interesting things, like using Mike Furrey at FS. He's played both ways in his career, but has been more of a WR in the NFL, and caught 98 passes for the Lions in 2006, which was second in the NFL.

He did some nice things at Safety in the game, and it reminded me of Troy Brown playing defense for the Patriots, though, as I mentioned, Furrey has played defense at the professional level. You have to be impressed with a player doing what it takes to help his team win.

b. A guy who I have always liked, who the Browns found for free is Matt Roth. He got on the wrong side of Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano in Miami, and they put him on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list, and then waived him in November. The Browns smartly claimed him, and he's played very well for the Browns thus far. The Sam position in a 3-4 is pretty hard to fill, because it's a unique skill set. Lamarr Woodley and Mario Haggan are both very good at it, and Adalius Thomas used to be, but like RT on offense, there are a lot more average 3-4 Sams than there are good ones. Roth is a good one, because he sets the edge well, and generates a good pass rush when he's called upon to do so. Finding a guy like him in-season is what a bad team has to do.

c. Two unheralded guys who the Browns have discovered on offense are RB Chris Jennings and TE Evan Moore. Jennings won a Grey Cup recently with the Montreal Alouettes, and looked like the best back on the Browns roster last Thursday. He ran with power and explosion against an excellent run defense.

I meant to mention Moore last week and forgot; but I know a football player when I see one, and he's a player. He was a big WR at Stanford for 4 years, and also played basketball for his first 2 years. His fluidity, body control, and overall athleticism jump off the screen, and really remind me of Antonio Gates. I don't know if he's as fast as Gates, but he looks to me like he could definitely be a Brent Celek-caliber receiving TE. He's been key to Brady Quinn's recent improvement, because Quinn does his best throwing work inside the numbers.

Jennings and Moore are two players who the Browns can be very excited about, as they figure out what their program is during the offseason. Like Roth, they came with no significant cost. Now the Browns just need to nail their offseason.

d. I had a friend who is a Steelers fan ask me what was wrong with his team, and I think I may have disappointed him by not having a real definitive answer ready. It's kind of a tough question to answer, really, because Mike Tomlin had it exactly right when he said it was a function of struggles in all three phases of the game.

The defense really misses Troy Polamalu, who I think might be the most irreplaceable defensive player in the NFL. No safety plays with the speed of Polamalu, and the Steelers are much more conservative in their blitz packages without him. Their CBs are also playing pretty poorly over the last five games. On offense, I think the Steelers play-calling has been suspect. Rashard Mendenhall has emerged as a good RB, and the Steelers seem reluctant to commit to letting him run. I'm not surprised at the rumblings Sunday that some offensive coaches are likely going to get whacked after the season.

e. Now, on to why the Browns won Thursday. There were two reasons. One reason is that Joshua Cribbs is a great football player, and he carried his team on offense and special teams. The other is that the Browns covered the Steelers' receivers at a shockingly high level. ST&NO Favorite Brandon McDonald was fantastic. He might have had the best coverage game I have seen from a CB this year (although Andre' Goodman was awesome on Sunday, too). Eric Wright was strong on the other side too, though he gave up a few completions to Santonio Holmes. As has often been the case with the Broncos this season, the coverage allowed the pressure to get to Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked 8 times.

f. It was another annoying weekend when almost every game was early, including the Broncos. I had the Chicago-Green Bay game on at the same time as the Broncos game,. and as I watched some of it, I was struck by the fact that neither team showed me anything that I didn't already know about them. Aaron Rodgers continued his recent run of getting sacked less, and the Packers defense was strong again. The Bears had some flashes, but self-destructed at key times.

The only real takeaway from this, to me, is another reminder why I don't really like fantasy football. The number one player in the Official MHR League this year has been my QB, Rodgers. In real football terms, he played fine on Sunday. He completed 16 of 24 throws for 180 yards, and lost a fumble on a blind-side sack. His team won the game, so no worries, right? Well, in fantasy terms, he tanked. Not only that, I am playing Zappa in the playoffs this week, and he has Ryan Grant, who had a monster game with 137 yards and 2 TDs, because the Bears were playing coverage to prevent big plays in the passing game.

g. Speaking of guys who tanked on my fantasy team, Randy Moss, this skunky, warm Miller High Life is for you. One catch for 16 yards, and a lost fumble? Really? He really looked like he wasn't trying hard, too; it was a total flashback to the Oakland days. Good thing I had Brandon Marshall and the Eagles (TD scoring) defense.

h. I think the Patriots are in trouble, and that their culture needs an adjustment. I read Bill Belichick's sending tardy players home as a clear indication of that. Adalius Thomas lipped off in the media, and got benched for it, and Randy Moss did it with his play somewhat on Sunday. I wouldn't be shocked if both are gone after this season. Thomas is gone for sure, and Moss is a possibility. The Patriots have a lot of draft assets with which to restock the WR position, and they're pretty solid at LB anyway, with guys like Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich making positive contributions.

It was pretty interesting how Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came to Moss's aid on Monday, after he clearly was dogging some pass routes. Michael Lombardi had a good point on NFL Network that Moss has done that his whole career, and that the Patriots probably weren't too alarmed by it. I think it's pretty bad, personally.

i. Scary moment in Arlington, Texas, when DeMarcus Ware was carted off the field with a neck injury. The Chargers had a false start, and then went right down the field in two plays to score the deciding TD afterward. Reports on Monday were that Ware would miss the next two weeks, which would really handicap the Dallas defense. Most casual fans think of Ware as just a pass rusher, but he is a rare player who stars against the run, and in zone coverage too.

j. I alluded to this thought last week, but it was well-articulated by Michael Lombardi last night; Dallas's struggles have nothing to do with what month it is. The same can be said of the Chargers and their success in the month of December. If you're playing in a lot of places where there's bad weather, then maybe the month is a semi-meaningful data point, but neither Dallas nor San Diego particularly qualifies. I know somebody is going to say that a game in December is a pressure game, but even that's not true a lot of times. San Diego has tended to be healthy in December, and Dallas has tended to be banged up. San Diego has tended to play weak late-season schedules, and Dallas has tended to play difficult ones. Don't get caught up in things which Peter King would incorrectly call a factoid.

k. That Radio Shack commercial with the sleeping scruffy dude saying "Dance, Sugar Plum Fairies" is bizarre. It makes no sense at all to me, and I can't imagine how it would make anybody want to shop at Radio Shack, or buy that craptastic phone from Sprint.

l. NBC lucked out with a great game on Sunday night between the Eagles and Giants. Neither defense looked particularly good, but both offenses lit it up. The difference in the game was a defensive TD from Sheldon Brown, and a punt-return TD from DeSean Jackson. Those plays also provided the difference in the Shallow Thoughts team beating Zappa's Sactown Beavers in the playoffs.

m. I would never let Jackson get off the line of scrimmage without getting hit. Teams just insist on letting this guy run free through their secondary, and he kills them. Little, fast guys like him must be re-routed off the line, and then you want over/under coverage on him after that. He's not the typical big, physical number-1 WR like Brandon Marshall, but he does need double-team attention, or at least Cover-3 behind him, so he can be hit at the line with confidence.

n. Brandon Jacobs, to me, is like a 98-mph fastball that's a little too straight, and rarely misses bats. Jacobs has been running harder lately than he was early in the season, but he doesn't make anybody miss. He takes so many hits, and this year, he's going down more easily than he used to. I think the Giants offense is better when Ahmad Bradshaw is getting more carries than Jacobs at this point, even as Jacobs has been better lately.

o. Speaking of the Giants, I want to share some ST&NO light with a Giants fan, because I've coincidentally been listening to his music as I wrote this part of the column. If you like hip hop, you ought to check out Nickel at his website www.SpotMeANickel.com. He's got a couple albums worth of MP3s available for free download there. I went to high school with the guy at Norwich Free Academy in Norwich, CT, and it's cool to see him doing well, and making good music.

p. As always, I watched 5 games on Monday night, and the one I learned the most from was the New Orleans-Atlanta game. Very simply, New Orleans deserved to lose the game, and I haven't seen or heard anybody acknowledge that. I take that as a reaffirmation that my effort is worth the time.

Brent Grimes got called for two horrible pass-interference penalties, on plays where he reached around his man to play the ball. Those two plays directly led to 14 points being scored, and the Saints won by 3. The officials bogusly penalized ST&NO Favorite Thomas DeCoud on an even better play in the fourth quarter too, but Garrett Hartley subsequently missed a Field Goal, so it didn't affect the scoreboard. The Saints are a very good team, and they don't need any bonus help, but apparently you can't breathe on their receivers. It reminded me of the 2006 NBA Finals, when Dwyane Wade got "fouled" practically every time he touched the ball, and it disgusted me just as much to watch.

q. Jonathan Vilma deserves credit for sealing the win for New Orleans. He intercepted Chris Redman with 3 minutes to go in the game. Then, after the Saints arrogantly tried a fake field goal, rather than taking the points and going up 6, Vilma tackled the formidable Jason Snelling cold in the open field, a yard short of the first down on 4th and 2. He made the plays that were there to be made.

r. While I'm on the topic of the Saints, here's an E! True Hollywood Story for you. Or maybe it's a Letterman-style Top 2 list. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Top 2 Things Ted Bartlett Currently Doesn't Give A Damn About (And Al Roker's Forecast Calls For No Change:)

1. Whether or not the Colts or Saints go 16-0, and on a related note, whether or not they rest their starters.

2. Who wins the NFL MVP Award.

Going 16-0 doesn't matter to anything. All it would do is create something which Peter King would someday mistakenly call a factoid (even though it's actually a fact). The only thing that matters is going 3-0 (or 4-0) in the Playoffs. Plus, the whole thing puts Mercury Morris back in the spotlight, and he's a jerk who doesn't deserve it.

As for the MVP Award, really, who cares? I may start caring if somebody other than a QB or RB can win, other than the rare Lawrence Taylor in 1986. (Since the AP award began in 1957, only DT Alan Page, K Mark Moseley, and Taylor have won the award from positions other than QB or RB. Taylor is the only winner for the Pro Football Writers Association award, which began in 1975. This is an absolute farce.)

Remember ST&NO Rule #1: If reporters vote for it, and decide it, it's usually not particularly worth paying attention to. That includes any and all power rankings, the NFL All-Pro team, all season-ending awards in all sports, and membership in all Halls of Fame. Reporters often mean well, and they add some value to the overall football discourse, but the value they add ends when they're not asking questions, finding things out, and reporting those things. When you ask them to judge something, most can't get past the very obvious, or what other people tell them, and nearly all are biased by what they consider to be the most interesting story. While that's understandable, given the fact that they're in the interesting story business, it's also self-serving, and represents noise rather than a reflection of truth.

s. The more I watch Chad Henne, the more I like his mechanics, all the way through the process of playing QB. I most especially like the way he carries out his fakes after he hands off the ball. You can tell that he's very well coached, both at the collegiate level and the professional level.

t. Speaking of good coaching, if Head Coaching jobs were being handed out based only upon excellence as a coordinator, Mike Mularkey would be looking pretty good for a shot at another job. People who know things about offense, and pay attention, know that Mularkey has been getting a lot of production out of some pretty marginal talent the last two seasons. It's equal parts scheme, knowing the capabilities of his players, and getting his guys to execute, but Atlanta's offense overachieves. Remember - Mularkey didn't get fired in Buffalo; he resigned in 2006 because he didn't see eye-to-eye with the recently hired Marv Levy. He's up there with Houston's Kyle Shanahan on offense, and the Broncos' Mike Nolan, Cincinnati's Mike Zimmer, and Arizona's Bill Davis on defense as guys who I think are adding a great deal of value to their sides of the ball.

u. I tend to dislike University of Texas players, because they have a well-known reputation for being coddled in Austin, and often coming into the NFL as soft players. A limitation of making evaluations from a distance is that you sometimes have to rely on information which may or may not be meaningful, such as the fact that coaches are prohibited from cursing at players at UT. That's pretty absurd in my opinion, like the urban legend about stress cards in basic training.

I didn't take to Brian Orakpo much coming out of college, partially due to the UT factor. Turns out, he's very good, and he's brought a lot to the table for Oakland. He has had a very good rookie season, but he was dominant on Sunday against the Raiders' bad offensive line and indecisive JaMarcus Russell. I still prefer Knowshon Moreno to Orakpo for the long haul, and I still think the Redskins should have taken Michael Oher (after the Packers should have taken Michael Oher). Orakpo was a good choice though, and is a good player, so I missed on that one.

v. I said a couple weeks ago that I was pretty sure that the Chiefs didn't regret acquiring Matt Cassel, and he's proceeded to have the two worst games of his career the last two weeks. His ability is very clear, so I still don't think they regret it, but he needs to step it up, and buy Todd Haley and Scott Pioli some cover. Kansas City has an aggressive local sports media, led by Adam Teicher and Jason Whitlock. Whitlock has already renamed Pioli as Scott Egoli, so it would be mighty helpful to this regime if they and Cassel could finish the season stronger than they've been showing, and feel like there's something to build on.

w. A vital part of a 3-step drop passing play is that the outside blocker on the throw side (usually the Tackle) needs to cut the Defensive End and get him on the ground. The 49ers RT, Adam Snyder, failed to cut Darnell Dockett twice in the first half Monday night, resulting in an Interception by Dockett, and another deflection by Dockett, which Alex Smith caught himself, and promptly was tackled for a 6-yard loss. Neither play was Smith's fault; his job is to get to the top of his drop, and let the ball go. Snyder's job is to clear the throwing lane.

x. Speaking of guys clearly not doing their jobs (and jumping back to the Dallas game because of the topic), Tony Dungy was right on when he was asked if coaching was the problem in Dallas. He said that he knows Terence Newman has been coached to jam a WR and re-route him in Cover-2, and that coaching definitely wasn't the problem on the big Vincent Jackson 39-yard catch on 3rd and 12 (right after the aforementioned Ware injury).

That was the key play of the game, and Newman didn't make it. As the play happened live, I yelled out "Where's the f$%^&* jam, 41?" I was glad Dungy called him out, although I bet he wasn't moved to profanity like I was. I've always thought Newman was highly overrated, by virtue of being a Cowboy. It comes with wearing the blue star, I am afraid.

y. Usually, when a defensive lineman is drafted highly, you expect him to be a big sack guy. The Bengals once drafted Justin Smith fourth overall, in 2001. His career high in sacks, mostly as a Right DE in a 40-front, was 8.5 in his rookie season. He had 6.5, 5, 8, 6, 7.5, and 2 in his next five seasons, which are respectable numbers, but not for an open-side DE drafted that highly.

Smith signed a 6-year $45 million deal with San Francisco in 2008, and moved to 5-technique in a 30-front. It's the role he should have been playing all along, because he's always been a physical, block-defeating player more than a speed-rushing player. It's not too different than the highly drafted Derrick Harvey from the Jaguars, or Jamaal Anderson for the Falcons (who moved to DT eventually). Their skill sets are just better suited to playing with physicality than with speed. (Harvey got only his second sack of the year Sunday, and Anderson has 0.5).

Anyway, Smith was dominant on Monday night, and consistently held the point of attack, while often penetrating and disrupting the Cardinals offense. It sure seemed like he is earning his money. I was also very impressed with the pass-rushing skills of Ahmad Brooks, who used to be just a MLB.

z. Another rookie I criticized for seeming to be soft was Beanie Wells, and he continues to play like he isn't. His TD run early in the 4th quarter Monday night was a man's TD run, all second effort. He did fumble later in the 4th quarter, but it was on a kill-shot by Dashon Goldson, who had a couple of those in Monday night's game.

aa. Genetics are a funny thing. In my family, we have something called the Bartlett Calves. My dad and all his siblings have them, and all my siblings and I have them, even my 8-year old half-sister Abby. The Bartlett Calves are notable for being disproportionately muscular and large, compared to the rest of our bodies. I am 6 feet tall and weigh 235 pounds, and when flexed, my calves are 18 inches around, which is 3-4 inches bigger than the average man's calf, and an inch bigger than the average man's neck.

I bring up this genetic oddity, because it makes me feel a certain kinship with Frank Gore, who has thunder thighs like whoa. He's found out a way to make good professional use of his thighs, because they're what give him such impressive power in traffic. Mine don't really come in too useful as an accounting manager and blogger.

ab. The jury is in as far as I am concerned for San Francisco. The 49ers are on the right track, and ST&NO Favorite Alex Smith has definitely emerged as their long-term QB. They have 2 first-round picks this season, which are both going to be in the 10-15 area. They need a CB and an offensive lineman with those picks, or maybe even two offensive linemen. This team is not far at all from the playoffs, and they're not even going to miss by much this season.

ac. The Cardinals are still legitimate championship contenders, but they got their hind parts kicked Monday night. The result of the game was more a reflection of good play by the Niners than it was of bad play by the Cardinals. The bright spot for Arizona was the excellent Adrian Wilson, who baited Smith into a dumb INT, and was around the ball constantly, the whole game.

4. I couldn't agree more with TJ Johnson's piece about deferring the option yesterday, and a smart analyst got out ahead of me before I wrote about it, which happens once in awhile with a Tuesday slot. I'm always glad to see an in-house MHR guy do it. Big up TJ! If you haven't read his article, you should. So should Don Banks (and Dan Fouts.)

From Banks:

• Did I hear that right, the Broncos won the coin toss to start their game at Indy and deferred to the Colts? And Peyton Manning? Why exactly would you give Manning the chance to get the ball in his hands any more than you absolutely have to? What were you thinking, Josh McDaniels? That's a dubious, rookie-like call for the Broncos new head coach. I do believe McDaniels was guilty of overconfidence in his defense.

My two cents was going to be that each team gets the ball kicked to them to start one half, and there's no way around that fact, so if you consider just this fact, it's utterly meaningless which half a particular team gets their opportunity to receive. TJ goes much further, and finds that there is actually evidence that teams who get the ball to start the second half tend to experience more success. Very interesting stuff.

5. That first-rounder from the Bears is looking really good right now. Chicago fell to 5-8 Sunday, and I like them to finish 6-10. They play at Baltimore and home against Minnesota before finishing at Detroit. For the Broncos' playoff chances, I'd like to see the Bears beat the Ravens, but I doubt it happens. A 6-10 record is probably good for a pick in the neighborhood of 9th or 10th overall. I gave a cursory look at the remaining schedules of every team with a losing record, and this is what I came up with for season-ending records, and way-too-early possible picks.

1. St. Louis 1-15 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma

2. Tampa Bay 1-15 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska

3. Detroit 2-14 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma

4. Kansas City 3-13 Eric Berry S Tennessee

5. Cleveland 4-12 Russell Okung T Oklahoma State

6. Oakland 4-12 Carlos Dunlap DE Florida

7. Buffalo 5-11 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame

8. Washington 5-11 Trent Williams T Oklahoma

9. San Francisco ~~Carolina~~ 5-11 Joe Haden CB Florida

10. Seattle 6-10 Anthony Davis T Rutgers

11. Denver ~~Chicago~~ 6-10

12. San Francisco 7-9

13. Pittsburgh 7-9

14. Houston 8-8

15. Tennessee 8-8

With a 10th or 11th pick, you can get yourself a difference-making defensive player like a Terrence Cody, Rolando McClain, or Brandon Spikes. You could also go outside the box, and draft a guy like C.J. Spiller from Clemson, who projects as a major home-run threat, a la Chris Johnson, at the NFL level. You have to admit, he'd make a nice tandem with Knowshon Moreno. My move, though, might be to try to trade down, and enjoy some of the depth of this Draft. (I say try, because you can't always do it.) I am treading kind of lightly with this line of thinking, because I am a well-known believer that players are better than draft picks. (A player is a real asset, and a draft pick is a derivative asset; when you're needing to operate now, it's better to have a barrel of oil than a contract guaranteeing the delivery of a barrel of oil at a future date and price.)

To me, the Broncos could get back once or twice to #20 or so, and take someone like either Mike or Maurkice Pouncey from Florida, if they elect to enter the draft. (Incidentally, I think Florida is going to lose a bunch of underclassmen.) Both are 6-5 320-pound interior offensive linemen, and would fill what I think is the Broncos' biggest roster need. The overall point, though, is that it's good to be in the position the Broncos are in right now, with this pick coming in higher than their record would earn. For those who were sure the Broncos erred in trading their own pick rather than Chicago's, I'd hope they remember that you don't know how things are going to play out until they play out.

6. Bad news emerged for QB-needy teams yesterday that Washington junior Jake Locker will return for his senior season. It was not altogether unexpected, but I believe that Locker would have been the first QB selected, and maybe the number-1 overall pick. His talent as a thrower and runner is way ahead of the other guys in this class. The guy who benefits is Sam Bradford, because if he checks out healthy, his size and arm are both a bit better than Jimmy Clausen's. I, personally, am not in love with either guy. Bradford looks like a young Matt Hasselbeck to me, while a comparison for Clausen doesn't come to me so easily. Clausen is short, average athletically, looks like he needs to get a lot stronger, and has an average arm. He looks a bit like a young Drew Brees, before Drew worked so hard to become what he became. I am reluctant to make that comparison, but it's the best one I can come up with.

7. Retired for John Elway.

That's all I have for this week. We'll be back next Tuesday with more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Until then, have a fantastic Raiders Week, and Go Broncos!

The VRR: DeMarcus Ware is the Dallas Pass Rush

Aaron Novinger — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 23:03:56 -0000

More photos » by Michael Thomas - AP

To win the third-down battles on defense, the Cowboys could use more pass rushers to help out the secondary.

Browse more photos »

DeMarcus Ware's injury in yesterday's game scared many of us, but it's now not seen as something too serious. In fact, Coach Phillips said in his press conference today that Ware is considered day-to-day. That's great news!

Having been released from the hospital with what is considered a sprain at the base of the neck, Ware is feeling much better and could be back soon.

"There is a possibility - again he came back a lot better today," Phillips said. "He was let out of the hospital early last night. He came back a lot better today so we will just have to see."

Though it is a shortened week because Dallas travels to New Orleans for a Saturday night game, Ware has yet to be ruled out. That's even better news for the Cowboys. Going up against the number one rated passer in the league in Drew Brees, they will need all the pass rushing help they can get.

Hat tip to OCC for the FanShot.

So what happens if Ware is not able to go on Saturday? The team could very well look to rookie Victor Butler to start.

The 6-2, 246-pound Butler has three sacks in limited playing time, all of which have come late in games. Phillips said the rookie, who played defensive end at Oregon State, is still learning the Cowboys' scheme and adjusting to playing outside linebacker.

"He's not a real big guy," Phillips said, "so that's part of it, too."

With or without Ware, I think we can all agree that the Dallas pass rush is rather inconsistent. Until recently, Jay Ratliff and Keith Brooking had been getting a rush up the middle. Perhaps Stephen Bowen can play a more prominent role against the pass-happy Saints.

If Ware is out, who is going to demand double teams? It's time for Anthony Spencer to step his game up one more level. DWare may make the game, but he'll be banged up. I saw Spencer maul the Chargers' tackles at times, yesterday. Although both the Saints' tackles are listed at 6-5, 315 lbs., Spencer brings a strong power rush.

Like Coach Phillips said, Butler is not too big a guy; and neither is the other option: Steve Octavien. He's more of a LB in the mold of Al Singleton instead of a DE/LB tweener like Ware and Spencer.

Whoever it is must be able to cover, too. Both RBs Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas each have caught more than 30 receptions.

Speaking of covering - what's up with the third-and-longs? The secondary could definitely use some help on passing downs. Can't blame it all on the lack of a pass rush, but something's got to not give.

For the season, Cowboys' opponents have converted four times in seven chances on third-and-12, an abnormally high rate. In the last five games, Cowboys' opponents are 11-for-34 on third-and-eight or longer, also higher than the league average.

In other injury news, SS Pat Watkins sprained a PCL in yesterday's game. He is expected to miss 2-4 weeks. That's a big blow to the special teams coverage units.

TE Martellus Bennett will return to practice, but is not expected to play until the Redskins game.

FS Ken Hamlin will also return to practice this week. His status will probably depend on whether he participates fully or on a limited basis.

Phillips put the blame on the offensive line, not Marion Barber, for coming up short on the goalline.

"He hit it up in there good, but there was somebody there that we felt we could have come off and blocked. They played it a little bit different from what we had seen, but it wasn't that much different. We felt like we should have scored.''

Here's what Jason Garrett had to say about the series.

"Those were three different plays,'' Garrett said. "We had knocked them off the ball fairly consistently on that drive. Logic tells you we should be able to do it again."

"They did a good job making the stand.''

Week 16's Cowboys @ Redskins matchup will remain on Sunday Night Football.

The NFL and NBC have decided that Week 16 game between the Cowboys and the Redskins will remain in prime time.

Bolts & Dolts: Chargers at Cowboys

John (obviousman) — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 11:58:21 -0000

More photos » by Amy Gutierrez - AP

2 days ago: San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates (85) pulls in a touchdown pass in the second half of an NFL football game against the Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009 in Arlington, Texas. The Chargers won 20-17. (AP Photo/Amy Gutierrez)

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When you factor in things like how the opposing teams have played in the games immediately before or after their showdown with the Chargers, you could make a case that this Cowboys team is the 2nd or 3rd best team the Bolts have faced all year. Although it's December, they're playing much better than they were in the beginning of the season (when the Broncos beat them) and it was going to take a complete game by the coaching staff and players to get a win.

Well, that was about as complete of a game as you can have in the NFL against a legitimate opponent. The defense, similar to the game against the Browns, seemed to play a soft zone in the beginning and end of the game. They struggled to stop any of the Cowboys three star RBs, and yet Dallas was only able to score one meaningful touchdown in the game. I have no idea how Ron Rivera keeps doing it, but he continually keeps points off the board.

The offense is currently unstoppable. It's clicking in a way it never has before, with Philip Rivers playing his best football and Norv Turner calling all the right plays at the right times. It helps when you have 5 guys on the field who are receiving threats on any given play. Even LaDainian Tomlinson, who isn't much of a feature-back these days, seems to become a better player near the goal line and whenever the Chargers need a big run for a first down.

It's a good time to be a Chargers fan. The division crowd, the playoffs and a first round bye are no longer just dreams.

Bolts

Offense

Philip Rivers - 21/32, 272 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT. Whomever is disappointed that Philip didn't have another game with a QB rating of over 130, please leave the room. This was not the Browns and it was not the Chiefs. This was a legitimate NFL defense with very few holes. The pass-rush was there all game, and kept Philip stepping up in the pocket and sometimes running for his life. The CBs played a great game, Mike Jenkins in particular. Rivers and his WRs were just better. Any time you can post a near 90 QB rating against one of the better defenses in the league, count it as a victory.

Vincent Jackson - 7 catches, 120 yds. Well, well, well....somebody's back. In reality, VJ never left. This game wasn't about him breaking out as much as it was the defense going with a different philosophy. In the last few games, the idea was to double Jackson on every play. That left things open for Antonio Gates. This game, the Cowboys did the opposite and VJ came through in a big way. Huge plays by him and Rivers are the reason this game wasn't lost. They kicked the team back into high gear after the injury to DeMarcus Ware.

Antonio Gates - 4 catches, 44 yds, 1 TD. Need a first down on third down? Need a TD from inside the 15 yard line? Go to the guy who is completely and totally uncoverable. Philip didn't need to force passes to him this game, and didn't, but when he needed that outlet to get the team out of a jam Gates was there. He always is.

Malcom Floyd - 3 catches, 40 yds. First off, his catch on the sideline was absolutely ridiculous. Second, Floyd is a Pass-Interference machine....which actually makes sense. His speed is not that great, so it's rare that you see him more than a half-step ahead of his defenders downfield. However, he has a reputation for catching everything and is the king of jump balls. So any CB covering him is close by, and knows that just getting his hands in Floyd's face isn't going to do a thing. Add in the fact that he's skinny (so it always looks like he's the one that got pushed) and he could get PI called against a CB nearly every time if he tried. It's great that Norv has figured this out, and knows there's no risk in throwing it to Floyd one-on-one downfield, and calls it when a big play is necessary.

Offensive Line - 1 sack allowed. Say what you want about the run-blocking. It's at least three times more important to keep Rivers upright and healthy than it is opening holes for LT and Darren Sproles. That was a fierce pass-rush, with lots of blitzing (I miss Phillips' recklessness sometimes), and the offensive line gave Philip just enough time and space to make plays. Even that one sack, you could argue that it happened because Rivers didn't move in the pocket when he should've. Great showing by everyone, and specifically the tackles. I don't know where Scott Mruczkowski and Brandyn Dombrowski fit into the future of the offensive line, but with them and Jeromey Clary and Nick Hardwick it would appear the Bolts have a plethora of talent up front for next year.

Defense

Brandon Siler - 5 tackles, 1 sack, 2 tackles for loss. That's it. Let there be no more doubt in anybody's mind. Brandon Siler is a Player, with a capital P, and has earned the right to start ahead of Kevin Burnett for the rest of the season. He makes the run-defense stronger, gets pressure on the QB when blitzing and is generally a force that can mess up any given play for the offense. Give him the most credit for the goal-line stand (his specialty), and give him credit for being strong in coverage all game as well.

Stephen Cooper - 3 tackles, 2 defended passes, 1 forced fumble. The best game of zone coverage Coop has played all season. I don't really care that he didn't pick off the passes he got his hands on, because I believe most of them were big 3rd down plays. Cooper had an OK game against the run as well, which is why you saw a lot more runs to the outside (away from him and Siler) as time went on.

Special Teams

Mike Scifres - 42.0 average, 2 (of 3) inside opposing 20 yd line. Follow this theory, dreamed up by my wife. With about 10 second left to go in the first half, Scifres came out for his first punt (that's kindof amazing). The punt landed inside the Cowboys' 5 and bounced into the end zone. When the camera showed Mike, he was screaming "Man, what the @#$&!" at somebody. I couldn't tell why, and my wife said "I guess he wanted somebody to down it. You know, for his stats." My response was "Screw his stats, it's the end of the half!" Well, if the following theory is correct, I'm the only idiot.

In the second half, Mike punted twice. Each time it was downed inside the Cowboys' 5 yard line by Kassim Osgood. After each time, Kassim stayed where he downed it, held the ball up and looked back at where the play originated from. I originally thought he was just doing it as a celebration, and to show the refs where he was. My wife was the one who said "I bet he's showing the ball to Scifres." If that's the case, and it makes the most sense, then good job by Mike to get on Kassim. That field position meant the world in the second half. Oh, and....

Kassim Osgood - 2 downed punts inside the Cowboys' 5. You could argue that, between Osgood and Mike Tolbert, the Chargers have two of the ten best special teams players in football. I'd certainly argue that point. The Bolts are going to have big shoes to fill on punt returns next season when Osgood is playing WR somewhere else.

Nate Kaeding - 2/2 FGs, 2/2 XPs. I love that stat that shows up every time he kicks now, the most accurate kicker in the history of the NFL. Kaeding is everything that everybody thought Mike Nugent would be. If you're within 45 yards of the goal post, it's a guaranteed 3 points. Beyond that, you still have a good chance.

Dolts

Offense

There were no offensive Dolts this week.

Defense

Defensive Line - 4.0 YPC allowed, zero sacks. This probably isn't their fault. There just isn't enough talent on the line to dominate anybody anymore. Still, each guy on the line was getting pushed around with ease and I don't believe any of them were demanding anything more than a single blocker. This is a big reason why Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips were held in check as pass-rushers and run-stoppers. The defensive line allowed a lot of easy runs up the gut, and didn't take up the blockers to free up LBs to stop the runs to the outside either. Whether or not they can do it, the Bolts may need the defensive line to play better than that to win any playoff games.

Almost Bolts

Mike Tolbert - Quite a weapon on offense, and quite a hitter on special teams. I'm left scratching my head as to why he didn't carry the ball once all game, but I'm sure Norv has his reasons. Perhaps, like me, he doesn't yet trust him to hold onto the ball in a close game?
LaDainian Tomlinson - Just what we've come to expect from LT. Smart running, timely big plays and a knack for never fumbling the football. Has anyone else noticed that he never loses yardage anymore? A handoff to LT these days is a guaranteed 2 yards or more.
Antonio Cromartie - He's gotta be the best man-to-man CB in the league right now. In man, he was untouchable. In zone, he was good but not great. The Quentin Jammer-Antonio Cromartie tandem is playing at the highest combined level ever right now. That's why you see teams putting their star WRs (like Miles Austin) in the slot, to get away from those guys.
Safeties - Nobody mistook these Safeties for Eric Weddle or Troy Polamalu out there, but the same philosophies were in place and played out. Paul Oliver, Steve Gregory, Kevin Ellison and C.J. Spillman did not allow big plays through the air and prevented big plays on the ground with sound tackling. I personally can't wait until Gregory can slide back down to the Nickel CB spot again and Weddle can start roaming centerfield like always. It's my belief that the run defense, as well as the man-defense on the slot receiver, is a lot better with Gregory down near the line of scrimmage.
Tim Dobbins - The poor man's Brandon Siler. He played well in goal line situations.
Larry English - He got the closest to Tony Romo out of the OLBs. As with most of this season though, English was close but couldn't make the play.

5 questions with ... 'Bye, Dawk :(:'

Ed Valentine — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 12:00:27 -0000

OK. You guys asked for an interview with 'Bye, Dawk:(:', and now you've got it. Our favorite Philadelphia Eagles fan (now, there is maybe the strangest phrase I have ever typed) graciously agreed to answer five questions from me. So, here is our interview.

Big Blue View: Obviously, you're an Eagles fan. Yet, you spend a lot of time at BBV, and you have actually become a valued member of the community. Why are you spending so much time sleeping with the enemy, so to speak?

Bye, Dawk:(:"There are many things my father taught me here in this room. He taught me: Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer."

- Michael Corleone

Big Blue View: The Eagles have beaten our Giants three times in a row. Giants fans will never say, oh, the Eagles are just better. Never. Not buying it. But, is there something you see as a reason why the recent matchups have gone Philly's way.

Bye, Dawk:(: Before I answer that question, I'll point out that the 3 games prior to our latest 3-game run were won by the Giants, but I digress.

This might be oversimplifying it, but in each of the past 3 games, the Eagles won the 1st Quarter. Let's throw out this year's game, which wasn't really a contest and focus on last year's games. Last year the Giants played extraordinarily well with the lead all season. They simply bullied teams once they got ahead, as evidenced by their 5.0 yards per carry and 157 yards per game in 2008. In the 2 games the Eagles beat the Giants last year, they won the 1st Quarter, kept their defense off the field, and the Giants only put up 88 and 138 rushing yards, both below their average. In the game the Giants won last year, they grabbed an early lead and bullied the Eagles for 219 yards on the ground, as well as a difference of 39:10 to 20:50 in time of possession. The Giants' run game this year is a far cry from their dominance of a year ago, but I think some of that is offset by the emergence of Steve Smith and the rest of the Giants' young receivers' ability to move the chains. I know I'm really going out on a limb here, but I think whoever wins the 1st Quarter, wins the game.

Big Blue View: OK, the question I love to ask. Which Giants player would you love to see in Philly's lineup, and why?

Bye, Dawk:(: "The Nobody," Justin Tuck. His biggest strength is his versatility to excel at every position along the D Line, which is a trait highly valued by the Eagles. He stops the run, he can rush the passer outside, he can rush the passer inside from the DT spot, and he's one of the most disruptive forces in the NFL - he's almost like a poor man's Reggie White (and I mean that as a compliment). I'll take it this far... If the Eagles had the option to steal any defensive player from the entire NFC East, it wouldn't be a no-brainer to take Demarcus Ware - I'd give really strong consideration to Tuck. Obviously, this has been a bit of a down year for Tuck due to injuries, but I'll give him a pass.

Tuck, Patterson, Bunkley, Cole - That would be scary.

Big Blue View: The way it is shaping up, out of Dallas, Philly and the Giants one of those teams is not making the playoffs. Which one, and why?

Bye, Dawk:(: Agreed, it looks like it'll be 2 of the 3, and Green Bay. Ugh, tough call. The team that loses our matchup is in trouble, but even still, I think it's Dallas. Their schedule is downright dirty:

San Diego - 6-game win streak, extremely talented offense.
@ New Orleans - Best team in the NFL right now (apologies to Indy) playing in maybe the loudest stadium, and the Saints won't have home field advantage throughout the playoffs wrapped up yet by gametime, so this one will still mean something to them.
@ Washington - For the rest of the season, Washington is my 2nd favorite team. In their past 3 games, they dominated the Cowboys for 58 minutes and only lost because of their kicker, they outplayed the Eagles for a good portion of that game and lost in the final minutes, and they had New Orleans all but finished, but again, the kicker. I'd want no part of this team. Wait, who do the Giants play next week?
Philly - Gotta love the football gods' sense of humor.

Big Blue View: Your feelings on Andy Reid? I think Philly fans fall in and out of love with Reid all the time, and it looks like you are going to have him around for a while. You OK with that?

Bye, Dawk:(: Count me in as one of those love/hate guys, but yes, I'm absolutely OK with Big Red sticking around for a while. He's the Eagles' all time franchise leader in wins, winning percentage, & playoff victories. He gameplans for opponents extremely well, and he along with Tom Heckert have done an outstanding job assembling a really talented, young team. The Anti-Andyites (myself included on occasion) will point to his playcalling and time management as his major weaknesses, and while I disagree to an extent on the playcalling, there's absolutely no defending some of his time management gaffes.

But Andy Reid's merits/detriments aside, I'm a firm believer in continuity, and despite the lack of that elusive Lombardi trophy it's been a great decade of Eagles football under Reid.

Big Blue View: Bonus question: Your prediction for Sunday?

Bye, Dawk:(: I actually typed 19-17 Giants, with Barry Cofield blocking a late long FG attempt and the Giants bleeding out the final 3 minutes because the Eagles have no timeouts left. However, I tried to hit the send button on my e-mail, but my computer threatened to explode and take me out with it if I did, sooooo...

20-19 Eagles. Akers drills the late FG, and Quintin Mikell seals it with a pick.

Many thanks to 'Bye, Dawk:(:' for playing along and being willing to do this. Eagles fan or not, 'Dawk,' you're welcome here any time. Of course, when you show up on Monday we sure hope it's to congratulate the Giants instead of crow about the Eagles.

(E-mail Ed at bigblueview@gmail.com)

Cowboys vs. Giants: 'Kudos & Wet Willies' preview

Ed Valentine — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 12:00:14 -0000

We need to have a happy Monday around here if our New York Giants are going to play any more meaningful football games this season. So, to make that a reality here is what I think needs to happen today against the Dallas Cowboys.

There will be lots of 'Kudos' Monday if ...

The Giants find a way to stop the run. This, of course, has been the reason for many of the lineup changes the Giants appear to be making defensively. The Cowboys ran all over the Giants for 251 yards in Week 2, and the run defense really hasn't gotten better since then. The Giants have given up too many big plays in the run game, and never seem to get a big stop when they need it. That has to change.
Jonathan Goff is not overmatched. Goff will not only be making his first start, he will be playing the first meaningful downs of his NFL career. Giants' brass and Giants' fans all want to know if he can do the job, which is why he is getting to play. If he can, the run defense should get better.
The Giants can contain Jason Witten. They usually can't. In fact, they usually can't contain most quality tight ends. But, if Michael Boley can slow him down that will help neutralize Tony Romo's favorite target.
David Diehl can slow DeMarcus Ware. Again, he usually can't. Ware has speed that usually is a problem for Diehl. The Giants need to help Diehl so that Eli Manning isn't running for his life.
The Giants re-discover the running game. We have debated the reasons for the struggles in the run game all week. All I am asking for this week is one or two big plays out of the running game. Maybe the fact that Brandon Jacobs is likely to play a lot more snaps with the depleted running back situation will get him into a rhythm.

There will be lots of 'Wet Willies' Monday if ...

The Giants don't play with passion. The most disappointing thing about the turkey of a game they played Thanksgiving Day in Denver was that a team that has played with tremendous passion and resolve for the past few seasons looked like it was mailing it in. Let's see what they bring to the table today.
Tony Romo has a big day. The last time the teams played Romo gift-wrapped the game for the Giants with three picks. If he slices up the beleaguered Giants secondary that's a big problem. Maybe the revamped front seven can generate some pressure.
The Giants offense is one-dimensional. If Manning is forced to try and throw 40 or more times, we could be looking at one of those games like the one last year when the Cowboys sacked him eight times. I don't care how they do it, but the Giants need to have enough success running the ball so that Dallas doesn't just go full-force after Eli on every play.

Shake, Rattle & Roll: Dumervil's Chase, The Importance of Sacks & Keeping The King in The Building

TJ Johnson — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 20:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

3 months ago: Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (6) scrambles out of the pocket to avoid the rush of Denver Broncos' Elvis Dumervil (92) during the first quarter of an NFL preseason football game in Denver on Sunday, Aug. 30, 2009. (AP Photo/Ed Andrieski )

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It's good to be the king--of sacks.

That's because sacks are critical in today's NFL. Sacks have become such an important part of football, that today they are cause for orgasmic euphoria on the part of players and fans. It seems that this single act of taking the opposing quarterback down two-to-ten yards behind the line of scrimmage is almost on par with touchdowns themselves. Gyrating, break-dancing, and in the case of Shawn Merriman, outright seizures disguised as celebrations are in order after just a single sack.

Deacon Jones might have fathered the sack. Lawrence Taylor might have raised it through adolescence. And Michael Strahan might have helped it pay for college. But today, every roster is filled with a least one player trying to make a real man out of the sack.

That's because some sacks are hellaciously important. Not because Ryan Clady makes a lot of money defending against them. Not because Michael Lewis says so. But because a sack has real value.

So much value, in fact, that the Denver Broncos should resign Elvis Dumervil--before the king leaves the building.

The Temple of "Doom"

Let's start by stating the obvious. Elvis Dumervil is taking a run at the record book in 2009. He's going through left tackles like Al Davis goes through 1st-round draft picks. Dumervil is not only flourishing under the Mike Nolan 3-4, he's getting fat on the hog. With 14 sacks, there's an outside chance he could reach Strahan's single season record of 22.5.

With 5 games remaining, Dumervil needs to average 1.7 sacks/game. While this may appear like a lot, it's certainly within the realm of possibility. Dumervil is already averaging 1.2 sacks/game, so he'd need to amp up his current production slightly. But he's not miles behind Strahan's pace. Let's compare Strahan's 2001 season with Dumvervil's 2009 season through 12 weeks. Keep in mind Strahan had a week-12 bye and Dumervil a week-7 bye.

Strahan was at 15.5 with 5 games remaining, and averaged 1.4 sacks during that last stretch of games to set the bar at 22.5. Can Elvis get on a hot streak? The numbers suggest it's plausible. Here are the sacks/game average of his remaining opponents:

Week 13: Kansas City (3.45 sacks/game)
Week 14: Indianapolis (.909 sacks/game)
Week 15: Oakland (2.7 sacks/game)
Week 16: Philadelphia (2.45 sacks/game)
Week 17: Kansas city (3.45 sacks/game)

The Colts don't allow many sacks, but every other team on the schedule could generate a multi-sack game for Dumervil. Given that Dumvervil is collecting 44% of his team's current sack total, we could take a overly-generalized and wildly simple stab at his potential sack number through the next 5 games:

Week 13: 3.45 X 44% = 1.52 sacks
Week 14: .909 X 44% =.04 sacks
Week 15: 2.7 X 44% = 1.2 sacks
Week 16: 2.45 X 44% = 1.08 sacks
Week 17: 3.45 X 44% = 1.52 sacks
Total Sacks = 5.72 + 14 (current) = 19.72 sacks

We might also simply take his average sacks per game and multiply them by 5 games. Using this method, he would end up with 20.36. Both methods are crude guesses, but no matter how you slice the numbers, it's clear that Dumervil is going to have to increase his production even more over the next five weeks and have. And there's no better way that to increase a player's production than taking on the Chiefs (twice) and the Raiders.

The Value of Sacks

Does all of this really matter or is it just a way for Dumervil to pump up his value for free-agency? Are sacks really that important as Denver makes its playoff push? Are sacks overrated? Just how valuable is a sack? And by default, how valuable is Dumervil?

Statistically, a team's sack total has a moderately-strong correlation to winning. Over the last ten seasons 1999-2008, the correlation coefficient (measure of the strength of the relationship of two variables on a scale of -1 to 1) of a team's sack total to team wins has been .4956. To give you an idea of how this type of correlation ranks with respect to other stats, consider the correlations of my weekly Stats That Don't Lie to team wins over the same time period:

Field Position Differential: .489

Time of Possession:.554

3rd - Down Efficiency: .511

Giveaways: -.486

For those that don't want to be bothered by what this means, simply know that there is a moderate to moderately strong relationship between sacks and wins (say three times fast: correlation is not causation). For those that like this stuff, we know we can square this number and postulate that sacks can explain/account for about 25% of a team's wins over a season. Either way, one would say that sacks have a moderate correlation to winning.

Brian Burke (the best football-stats man going) over at Advanced NFL Stats actually did me one better (this is not exceedingly difficult). Instead of calculating the correlation of stats to wins, he calculated the value of a sack itself. His findings? A sack has a expected point potential of 2 points:

If we average the expected points of all situations in which there wasn't a sack, and compare it with the average expected points following plays that did result in a sack, we get a difference of 2.0 points. In effect, a sack swings the balance of the game by an average of 2 points in favor of the defense, either by forcing a punt or a longer FG try, or even just putting a team in a predictable passing situation. That's a big swing for a single play. A turnover is generally worth 4 points, so a sack could be thought of as half as good as a fumble or interception.

Burke is right. This is a huge swing for one play. Two sacks in one game and you've got the equivalent of an interception or fumble. Three-and-a-half sacks, and your team is getting the equivalent of a touchdown, which was the case when Dumervil had four sacks in one game against Cleveland earlier in the year. It's little wonder then that there's a moderately-strong correlation between winning and sacks.

This allows us to put an approximate point value on Dumervil's sack numbers thus far this year. 28 points. That's quite a contribution from the 4th round draft pick and pint-sized Defensive End. In a season in which the Broncos have scored 196 points, that's a potential whopping 14% of the team's total.

Let's be careful, however. I'm not saying that Dumvervil has actually contributed 28 of Denver's 196 points. We are dealing with averages over time and point potentials. And many variables go into a single pass rush, specifically, coverage and other actions of all of the defensive linemen as a unit. Just last week against the Giants, for example, Vonnie Holliday stunted and took what amounted to three blockers out of the play so that Dumervil could attack up the middle for the sack of Eli Manning. However, the point is sound. Sacks--and Elvis Dumervil--have high value.

Burke's calculation is based the average for all sacks. But we also know intuitively, and without bull-rushing the point with more stats, that not all sacks are created equal. A few points of consideration:

A sack on 3rd or 4th down is more valuable than a sack on 1st or 2nd down. This makes sense if you think about each down as a missed opportunity. On 1st down, if my quarterback is sacked and loses some yards, I've still got options--two to three more downs--to make up for the error. On 3rd (and occasionally 4th) down, a quarterback sack essentially ends the drive right there. There are no more options. I'm punting, or if I'm close enough to my opponent's goal line, I'm going for a field goal. Thus, the sack on 3rd down puts and end to more chances.
A sack is more valuable than a stop because of the loss of yards and the inherent potential for a turnover. Consider the turnover risk to an offense, if on 3rd-and-3, I run right up the middle for 1 yard. I punt the ball and the other team gets a shot. There is more risk involved in dropping back on 3rd-and-3 and having a guy like Elvis Dumervil strip the ball from behind. And if that doesn't happen, at a minimum, my field position will have declined to a greater magnitude that a simple no-gainer.
Like turnovers, a sack later in the game is mover valuable than a sack early in the game. A sack on the 1st play of the game is going to be less valuable to my team than a sack on the last play of the game when the other team has a chance for a game winning pass. This is because in the first example, I've got dozens of drives and almost 4 full quarters to overcome the effect of the sack. On the second, I've no opportunity.
A sack when the game is in question is more valuable than a sack win winning easily. When my team is up by 30 points, a sack is going to be less meaningful than a sack when the game's outcome is still in question. While compiling a couple of extra sacks in scrub time might pad my stats and kick in some incentives in my contract, they are not nearly as valuable to my team.
A sack in my (the defense's) territory is more valuable than a sack in my opponent's (the offense's) territory. This has to do with the potential for points. As my opponent gets closer to my goal line, the chances of my opponent scoring increase. So a sack at my 40-yard line that takes my opponent out of field goal range is going to be more valuable than a sack when my opponent is at his own 30-yard line. The notable exception to this is when my opponent is backed up against his own goal line. In these situations, the possibility of a safety exists, and the point potential (for the defense) increases.

All five of these points may or may not seem logical to you and I, but the NFL doesn't see it this way. A sack is a sack--all of them, created equal.

Dumervil's Body of Work

If we accept our intuition as fact--and in this case it's wise to do so--we can begin to get our hands around the situational value of each of Dumervil's sacks.

Sack # 1 - Cleveland Browns, Week 2

Dumervil's first sack of the season was interesting to say the least. It came on the first play of the 3rd quarter. I would classify it as a coverage sack. However, Dumervil did make a nice power move to the inside after coming off the edge. The sack came out of the a base 5-2 look and it occurred on 1st-and-10 at Cleveland's 23-yard line. At the time, Denver was up only by 4 points, so the game was in question.

Sack # 2 - Cleveland Browns, Week 2

This sack came out of Denver's nickel package and Dumveril simply flew past John Saint Clair for the punishing sack of Brady Quinn. This was all Dumervil. The sack came with 11:19 remaining in the 4th quarter on a 2nd-and-17 at the Cleveland 13-yard line. Denver was up by 14 points

Sack # 3 - Cleveland Browns, Week 2

On the next play (3rd-and-22), Dumervil did the exact same thing to Saint Clair, going around him on the edge. The coverage was also excellent. Denver was again in its nickel package and the sack occurred at the 1-yard line and probably could have been called a safety.

Sack # 4 - Cleveland Browns, Week 2

This came with 7:29 remaining in the 4th quarter on a 3rd-and-1 at the Cleveland 29-yard line. Dumervil again abused Saint Clair with the outside speed rush in the nickel package. Denver was up by 21, however, so there was little doubt as to the outcome of the game.

Sack # 5 - Oakland, Week 3

This sack came with 7:16 in the 3rd quarter on a 3rd-and 10 at the Denver 45-yard line. Dumvervil bull rushed and then spun to the inside to get the sack, but this also had to do a lot with Denver's excellent coverage. Also, Denver was up by 17 points at the time. The came was still in question, but barely.

Sack # 6 - Oakland, Week 3

The sack came with 9:50 remaining in the 4th quarter on a 3rd-and-7 at the Oakland 14-yard line. Dumvervil starts on the outside and then stunts towards the middle and it untouched for the sack. This play essentially pins Oakland against it's goal line and they are forced to punt. With Denver up by 20, however, the game was not in question.

Sack # 7 - Dallas Cowboys, Week 4

The sack came with11:20 remaining in the 1st quarter on a 3rd-and-9 at the Dallas 40-yard line. Dumervil does his classic edge-rush-stop-on-a-dime-then-spin-to-the-inside move against Flozell Adams. Admittedly, the coverage helped him out. The game was very much in question, however, since the score was 0-0 and the Cowboys were force to punt as they were about to enter Denver's territory.

Sack # 8 - Dallas Cowboys, Week 4

The sack came with 7:37 remaining in the 3rd quarter on a 1st-and-10 at the Dallas 31-yard line. This is a coverage sack (out of a base 5-2 formation), but Dumvervil essentially gets under the pads of Adams and just pushes him back into the quarterback. Dallas was ahead by 3 at the time.

Sack # 9 - San Diego Chargers, Week 6

The sack came with 1:52 remaining in the 3rd quarter on a 3rd-and-3 at midfield. This was a speed rush (out of a "big" nickel package) that resulted in a fumble as well by Dumervil. With the Chargers behind only 1 point and driving into Denver territory, this was an exceedingly valuable sack.

Sack #10 - San Diego Chargers, Week 6

The sack came with 12:12 remaining in the 4th quarter on a 3rd-and-14 at the San Diego 23-yard line. Another great edge/speed rush from Dumervil gets Rivers before he can find an open man. The Chargers are forced to punt with Denver only ahead by 4 points at the time.

Sack # 10.5 - Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 8

This sack came with 8:03 remaining in the 1st quarter on a 3rd-and-4 at Pittsburgh's 37-yard line. Dumervil was credited with a half-sack on what really is a coverage sack. Denver was down by 3 a the time.

Sack # 11 - Washington Redskins, Week 10

This sack came with 13:24 remaining in the 3rd quarter on a 3rd-and-7 at Washington's 33-yard line. Dumvervil got credit for half of the sack, but it's the coverage that did it. Give much of the credit to the secondary on this one. Denver was up by 4 when this happened.

Sack # 12 - Washington Redskins, Week 10

The sack came with 8:57 remaining in the 4th quarter on a 1st-and-10 at the Washington 40-yard line. Dumervil came with his classic outside-to-inside move off the right edge out of a base 5-2 formation. The score was tied. This was a very valuable sack.

Sack # 13 - New York Giants, Week 12

This sack came with 2 minutes remaining in the 2nd quarter on a 3rd-and-4 at the Giant's 33-yard line. This was the stunt play (out of nickel coverage) referenced earlier. Thanks to Vonnie Holiday for taking out 3 blockers and allowing the stunt to work. Denver was up 16-0 at this point in the game.

Sack #14, New York Giants, Week 12

Dumervil's latest sack came with 9:08 remaining in the 4th quarter on a 1st-and-10 at the Giant's 32-yard line. Dumervil beats him man with another great outside-speed-inside-stop move and gets the strip-sack fumble. The Broncos recover. The score was 23-6, so the game was probably not in question at this point.

The Verdict

So what can we tell situationally about Dumervil's sacks this year? Quite a few things actually:

1) Dumervil gets a lot of his sacks on 3rd down. 9.5 of his sacks have come on 3rd down.

2) Dumervil gets a lot of his sacks in the 2nd half. 12.5 of his sacks have come in the 2nd half.

3) It's debatable, but I would estimate about 5 of his sacks were purely the result of coverage. I wouldn't consider this a high total.

4) Only 3 of his sacks where when the game was not in question.

5) If you didn't know already, the guy has amazing speed off the edge and an even more amazing ability to stop and get back to the inside.

To me, it's without question that Dumervil demonstrates an extremely high situational value. Some of his sacks have been against weaker opponents (Cleveland, Oakland), but he plays who is on the schedule, and a guy like Jared Allen has 7.5 sacks against the offensive line of the Packers, and people don't seem to mind. Moreover, Dumervil gets his sacks in critical situations with the game on the line and with so many of his sacks coming on 3rd down, he's a one-man-drive killer.

So how much is Dumervil worth in monetary terms?

The Value of "The King"

It's hard to say what will happen next year with the salary cap, but we can already get an idea of Dumervil's value as a free agent by looking at the recent deal struck by DeMarcus Ware of the Dallas Cowboys. The deal was a six-year $78 million deal with $40 million of guaranteed money. In 2008, Jared Allen singed a six-year $73.26 million deal with $31 million of guaranteed money. I believe these two deals (along with Dwight Freeney's $72 million deal) could serve as a benchmark for what Dumervil could be expecting. That is a hell of a lot of money for one guy.

Will Pat Bowlen, Brian Xanders, and Josh McDaniels pay this kind of change for Dumervil? That is the question. My gut tells me they won't, and that's why you saw Mario Haggan sign a modest extension this year along with the draft of Robert Ayers.

But that doesn't mean they shouldn't try to resign him. Sacks have insane value. And so does Dumervil. Every time he puts the quarterback to the turf, he's opening up the door for point potential for Denver. In this light, he's as much of a contributor as an offensive player would be. This team would not have a 7-4 record without him.

Denver should try to keep the king in the building. Right Now.

Week Thirteen: Fantasy Focus on the Cowboys

Aaron Novinger — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 19:13:29 -0000

More photos » by Erich Schlegel - AP

Anthony Spencer has recently joined the sack-dance club.

Browse more photos »

It's Saturday, so it's time to talk some fantasy football! This a huge week for the Cowboys as they travel to Giants Stadium in an effort to bury New York in the standings.

In the next week or two, fantasy playoffs will begin. For many of us, we will be facing a must-win situation this week...or, we're out!

Make the jump for the Week 13 Fantasy Focus.

QB Tony Romo -The Cowboys have yet to lose when Romo is the starting QB at Giants Stadium. In 2006 - his first year as a starter - he hit 20 of 34 passes for 257 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs to lead the team to a 23-20 win. The 2007 game there was a much more fantasy-friendly game for him; he lit up the Giants for 247 yards and 4 TDs with 1 INT. Last year, a hand injury forced him to miss the game in New York.

In Week 2 of this season, the Giants' defense seemed to have Romo figured out. His 127 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs scared many fantasy owners. But, that was before the emergence of his number one toy: WR Miles Austin. Last week against the Raiders, Romo and Austin connected for 130 yards in the first half, alone. Austin's ability to gain yards after the catch has helped the Dallas offense tremendously, and helped Romo notch another 300-yard performance. The middle of the field passes clicked last week as TE Jason Witten also had a 100-yard day.

The Cowboys' 10th-ranked passing offense (254.1 YPG) will be going up against the 4th-ranked Giants' passing defense (allows just 182.6 YPG). But, in terms of scoring, the Giants' defense ranks 25th in the NFL, giving up a whopping 23.7 points per game.

I wouldn't expect a huge day for Romo, as this should be a physical NFC East battle. Though, he is definitely worth a start.

RBs Marion Barber, Felix Jones, Tashard Choice - Each one of these backs broke off large gains on Thanksgiving. Felix scored on a 46-yard run, Barber had a 42-yard catch and run to go along with his 61 rushing yards, and Choice ripped off a 66-yarder from the "Razorback" formation. That is the type of production the Cowboys envisioned having from this trio when the season began.

Not since the Week 2 home game against the Giants, has Dallas' three-headed monster looked more healthy. In that game, both Barber and Felix decimated the defense to combine for more than 200 yards rushing. They also each scored a TD. Recently, the Cowboys have continued their use of Choice as a WildCat QB.

With both Barber and Felix healthy, the Cowboys still try to get Choice 3-5 touches a game, which isn't ideal for fantasy owners. For Felix owners, though, his knee brace is off and his quickness and agility looked to be unencumbered against Oakland. Offensive coordinator, Jason Garrett, realizes that it's time to get the ball in his hands at least 10 times per game. He's back to being a home run threat whenever he touches the ball. And Barber owners have reason for excitement, as well. The Barbarian has been catching well, which suggests his fractured thumb is healing; and he is running with his usual boost of power and purpose.

WRs Miles Austin - His huge game last week proved several things: 1) he can beat the best of them in man-to-man - just ask Nnamdi Asomugha, 2) he's tough as nails - hard to bring down and has no fear catching the ball in traffic, and 3) Garrett is still finding ways to get him open - slants, screens, comebacks, crossing routes, you name it. He even had Austin sit underneath zone coverage for Romo to check down to.

You're kicking yourself if you didn't start Austin last week. He's returning to play in his home state of New Jersey, so you may not want to kick yourself again by benching him. He'll get his targets; he's worth the start.

Roy Williams - Not flashy, not a PPR guy; though, he could get you a TD grab. The Giants may be starting converted CB, Aaron Ross, at FS. If they wanted to use him to double anybody, it would be Austin. Roy could see alot of single coverage, but he has yet to confirm that he is a reliable pass catcher. Start him at your own risk.

TEs Jason Witten - Hitting the century mark against the Raiders was a step in the right direction. That lone TD on the season is still lurking. JWitt's foot sprain has healed some over the extra days off after the turkey day game. It sure didn't seem to bother him on his 44-yard catch!

This has got to be the week he returns to the end zone. Start him.

Cowboys D/ST -This unit now ranks second in the league in scoring defense. That is music to fantasy owners' ears. What is even better is that SOLB Anthony Spencer is picking up some sacks now. Combine his play, along with the other pass rushers - DeMarcus Ware, Jay Ratliff, and Keith Brooking - and Eli Manning could be in for a long day.

In Week 2, Manning's WRs, Steve Smith and Mario Manningham, embarrassed the Dallas secondary by catching 10 passes and a TD a piece. CB Mike Jenkins has come along way since then, growing into the team's best at the position. Veteran Terence Newman often learns from his mistakes made the first time around, as he seems to respond well in payback games. SS Gerald Sensabaugh is playing consistently well. The question in the back four is how much the loss of FS Ken Hamlin (ankle) will effect how the secondary covers NY's corps of young WRs. His replacement, converted CB Alan Ball, has been adequate so far. The only knock on him has been in regards to how his 188-pound frame will hold up in run-support. Nevertheless, the unit has not lost a beat with him in the lineup and ranks 9th in rush defense (102.7 YPG).

If the defense can start forcing more turnovers, this will quickly become a dominating unit. ST coach Joe DeCamillis and punter Mat McBriar have helped tremendously in forcing offenses to earn their yards. With the tough schedule the Cowboys face, fantasy owners can't expect any shutouts, but these guys do enough to earn double-digit points each week.

This is the last regular season week for the BTB and BTB Part Deux fantasy leagues on FleaFlicker. If you are in one of the leagues, check out the standings for where you sit. Some teams have already guaranteed their spots in the playoffs, while others badly need to get this last win. Below are the current standings.

Just ONE Loss...Are You Serious? (11-1)

kill everbody

Where the Cowboys are Headed (9-3)

The Speed of Dark

StarBoys

Doubling Your Losses (8-4)

Paper Cranes
Maui Paniolo Boyz

Seventh Heaven (7-5)

Flashlights

Doomsday Redux

Dallas Destroyers

Reykjavik Roughnecks

Official Spoiler

Static

Holy .500, Batman! (6-6)

WheresWare?

BigRigga31's Team

Dillababies

Quincyyyyy

Felix Jones At Every Position

A Must Win this Week? (5-7)

NameBrandj

Second Chance

BTBfantasyCHAMPS

4 X 2 = (4-8)

Apes

My Team Sucks

The Doomsday Defense Reborn

Three Squared (3-9)

high505
No Doubter
Brady's a b!tch
Damage,Inc.

If you've got a fantasy dilemma, post it here for the BTB community to discuss. As always, feel free to jump in with other Cowboys/football related discourse even if you don't play FF.

Remember, for all your fantasy football needs, SBNation's fantasy webpage is chock full of live updates to help you set up your team from week-to-week.

For your convenience, here's the link: sbnation.com/fantasy.

Cowboys @ Giants Injury Update

Aaron Novinger — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:23:51 -0000

DeMarcus Ware has been added to the injury report - again. Evidently, Ware has a small fracture in his wrist. From Todd Archer:

Ware was already on the weekly injury report with the foot injury but the wrist was added today. He is listed as probable. Ware had X-rays today that revealed the fracture. Ware will have to wear a small cast for protection.

Make the jump.

The extra time between games has helped heal Jason Witten's sprained foot.

"I thought it was something that might be lingering, but it feels really good," Witten said. "Last week was tough with a short week. I felt good in the game and the trainers did a good job of getting me back quick. If it were a normal week there wouldn't be any question."

Both Ware and Witten practiced fully this week and will play on Sunday.

The only other surprise on the Cowboys' injury report is that Ken Hamlin (high ankle sprain) did not return to practice this week. Therefore, he will not play against the Giants. Obviously, Marc Colombo will still be out with his broken fibula.

Here is the list of the Cowboys' probables:

LB Victor Butler (knee), QB Tony Romo (back), S Gerald Sensabaugh (thumb), LB DeMarcus Ware (foot/wrist), TE Jason Witten (foot)

For the Giants, RB Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle/foot) had limited participation in practice today and is listed as questionable. The same goes for S Michael Johnson who is suffering from an injured groin.

Here is how their injury report shakes out:

OUT - RB D.J. Ware (concussion)

QUESTIONABLE - TE Travis Beckum (groin), RB Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle/foot), S Michael Johnson (groin)

PROBABLE - LB Michael Boley (back), WR Derek Hagan (hamstring), QB Eli Manning (foot)

The VRR: Cowboys Look to Win their Last Game at Giants Stadium

Aaron Novinger — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 11:16:43 -0000

More photos » by Erich Schlegel - AP

Let the intensity begin! On Sunday, Flozell Adams and Miles Austin will look to win one last time at Giants Stadium.

Browse more photos »

The bad blood runs thick through the NFC East. Sure, it was tense two weeks ago when the Redskins paid their first visit to Cowboys Stadium. After managing a 7-6 win, and then feasting on the beleaguered Raiders, the Cowboys now find themselves looking down in the division at the 6-5 Giants.

This 2009 version of the Giants began the season with five straight victories - their second, coming at the expense of the Cowboys to open Cowboys Stadium. On Sunday, the Cowboys can atone for that 31-33 loss by winning their final game at Giants Stadium, which would push the Giants down to a paltry .500 record.

Playing the Redskins and Eagles are always intense matchups for the Cowboys. But recently, these games against the Giants have seen a noticeable uptick in rivalry ratings. Maybe it's because Tony Romo has won both of his career starts at Giants Stadium. Maybe it's because of Brandon Jacobs' penchant for trash-talking. That 2007 playoff loss certainly still stings the Cowboys.

Whatever caused this recent rivalry surge has created an infamy monster that continues to grow. Expect it to do so as long as guys like Romo and Jacobs, Bradie James and Eli Manning, DeMarcus Ware and David Diehl, Patrick Crayton and Corey Webster, remain with their respective teams.

Flozell Adams and Justin Tuck, anyone?

More VRR after the jump.

Bradie James takes on the December grumblings, and wants badly to beat the Giants.

"The truth is the truth,'' he said. "What I've learned is no matter what your season is individually - you can have one of the best seasons of your career - if you lose and don't go to the playoffs, you're going to get criticized. Nobody is exempt from the criticism if you don't take care of business in December and go to the playoffs and do what we need to do. That's what time it is now. That's what we've got to do.''

Apparently, the insults from the teams' first meeting this season are still evident.

As if all that wasn't bad enough, James said Manning rubbed it in by scribbling his name and adding the score, the date and the words "First Win in the New Stadium'' on a concrete column in the visitors' locker room. James hasn't seen it, but he's seen a picture and is convinced it's real. True or not, it's being used as motivation.

"We won't forget that,'' James said. "It just makes for a more intense game.''

With the Giants moving into a new stadium next season, this almost certainly will be the Cowboys' final appearance at Giants Stadium. So is James bringing a pen to leave his own mark on the visiting locker room walls?

"I don't know, I might,'' he said. "I just want to win and that's it. I'll let our playing do all the talking. That's it. ... I don't care if it's by 30 or if it's by a point, we just have to take care of business and get rid of these guys right now.''

We can all talk about the Cowboys' December woes until we're blue in the face. Speaking of blue, the Giants have been pretty horrible in recent Decembers, too.

New York has not been good in December the past two seasons. The Giants were 1-3 in the final four regular-season games in 2007, when they won the Super Bowl, and they went 2-3 to close out last season with an NFC-best 12-4 overall mark.

Stopping the run could be the key to a Dallas victory.

When Tom Coughlin’s Giants run for at least 100 yards, they are 40-19. They are 13-19 when they don’t. In winning five consecutive games to start the season, the Giants averaged 160.4 yards on the ground. The past six games, New York has averaged only 98.8 yards rushing, with a high of 141 against the Eagles. The Giants had a season-low 57 rushing yards last week against the Broncos, a week after gaining only 88 yards against the Atlanta Falcons.

The Giants are still good at controlling the ball. The Cowboys have to counter that by taking it away.

The Giants (6-5) have lost five of their last six games but still own one of the most productive offenses. They rank second in yardage (374.7) and are tied for eighth in scoring (24.7) even with quarterback Eli Manning fighting foot issues.

"They're going to run to try to win games, control the ball," Phillips said. "I think they're in the top three or four in the league in time of possession. I think their philosophy is still the same whether they run it for enough yardage or not, but they've got good backs and a really good offensive line."

An area for defensive improvement - and one that will aid the Cowboys' offense - is more takeaways. The Cowboys' 13 (seven interceptions, six fumble recoveries) are tied with Washington for last in the league.

If the Giants focus their blocking assignments towards DeMarcus Ware, Coach Phillips will have to again be creative with how he uses his best pass rusher.

Phillips has tried to help Ware by moving him around to avoid the thicket of blockers. Ware rushed from the left side instead of his usual right side a significant number of times during the Thanksgiving win against Oakland. He has also blitzed as a middle linebacker and, as a change of pace, dropped into pass coverage on a few plays.

Ware's approach has broadened, too. Ware is not always a speed rusher trying to go around a blocker. He has slanted inside at times, allowing the tackle to go to the outside. That stunt led to Stephen Bowen's deflection of a Jason Campbell pass that led to a win-sealing interception against Washington.

"We want to keep them honest," Ware said. "If I just go outside, they'll be waiting on me. I don't want to be predictable."

Unless defensive coordinator, Bill Sheridan, can turn things around for his unit, the Giants' search to replace Steve Spagnuolo will continue.

The first logical replacement is Dick Jauron, fired nine games into this season as head coach of the Bills and someone with strong ties to Tom Coughlin, who in 1995 hired Jauron to run the expansion Jaguars defense.

A more interesting choice - certainly more intriguing to Giants ownership - is John Fox, who likely is to be a free agent if the Panthers continue their downward spiral.

When the Giants placed MLB, Antonio Pierce (bulging disk in neck), on IR, they lost a strong amount of leadership on defense.

So strong, in fact, that many players have said he was the true leader of the defense even when Michael Strahan was around. Strahan may have been revered, but Pierce had more of a connection with his teammates. The linebacker set the tone for the team, which usually rode the enormous chip on his shoulder, and it always looked to him when things got rough.

Who's that type of leader now? There might not be an answer. Justin Tuck, valiantly trying to play through shoulder and leg injuries, seems to prefer to lead by example. Osi Umenyiora, who once walked out on his defensive coordinator and team in a huff earlier this season, tried to fire up his team in Denver, but his effort looked more like an angry rant.

New York may look to second-year man, Jonathan Goff, to be Pierce's replacement.

Eli Manning has been playing with an injured foot and claims that it's getting better.

He's suffering from a stress reaction in his right foot, which previously had plantar fasciitis. Some reports say this could lead to further damage. But he claims the injury has no effect on his throwing. And he's doing his best to downplay the issue.

``The foot feels great, it really does,'' he said after Wednesday's practice. ``It feels better than it ever has since i originally injured it.''

Brandon Jacobs and rookie Gartrell Johnson may be the only tailbacks healthy enough to play for the Giants.

Ahmad Bradshaw and Danny Ware both missed practice on Wednesday, and are looking increasingly doubtful for Sunday's division showdown with Dallas at the Meadowlands. Bradshaw is struggling to return from a foot and ankle injury that kept him out of Thursday's Thanksgiving Day loss to the Denver Broncos.

Ware, a rookie, suffered a concussion during that loss and, given the NFL's newly adopted, suddenly strict policy concerning injuries of this sort, a weekend return seems unlikely.

Ken Hamlin's high ankle sprain kept him from practicing Wednesday, which indicates that Alan Ball will start his third consecutive game at free safety.

Trainers said last week Hamlin could possibly return to practice Wednesday, but he has yet to make enough progress, and spent the team's practice time rehabbing, the same as Monday.

OLB Victor Butler, who sprained his knee against the Raiders, practiced yesterday and expects to play Sunday.

Butler fully participated in practice and said he is ready to play Sunday against the Giants.

"It’s as good as it needs to be," said Butler, who has three sacks this season. "... I’m good to go."

Here is the updated injury report from DC.com.

What the Folk is up with Nick? The Dallas kicker says there is no excuse for his recent misses.

Folk has missed four of his last eight attempts and has at least one miss in each of the last three games. But Phillips said he's not worried.

"A guy that has a strong mind-set like he does will improve and keep working and won't go into a slump where he's really kicking it bad," Phillips said.

Offseason hip surgery prevented Folk from doing much kicking until the start of training camp, but he isn't using it as an excuse. "Physically, I'm fine," Folk said. He also isn't blaming new holder Mat McBriar, although McBriar said poor holds caused two misses. "I don't want to put blame on anyone else," Folk said. "I just have to get it right ... and make a good playoff run."

Mike Florio posits that the NFL Network may be "pressured" into simulcasting the Week 15 Cowboys @ Saints game.

For a chance to win SuperBowl tickets, vote on Sprint's "Can't-Miss Plays of Week 12". There are not any Cowboys' choices, but there is an anti-Giants one: Brandon Marshall's one-hander last Thursday night at Mile High.

Pro Bowl: Vote for Miles Austin!

Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald is first with over 500,000 votes, and Philadelphia's DeSean Jackson is second with 293,408 votes. Austin is third with 261,107 votes.

Hat tip to scottmaui for his FanPost.

Sam Hurd can use some of our support in the ST department, as well.

Also, it's worth noting that Sam Hurd is second in voting among special teamers. The Vikings' Heath Farwell has 103,215 votes; Hurd has 70,647.

ProBowl ballot link.

BTB Game Balls: Raiders @ Cowboys

Aaron Novinger — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 19:14:47 -0000

More photos » by Erich Schlegel - AP

Thanksgiving night was a good, good night for the Cowboys and Miles Austin.

Browse more photos »

It's time to hand out game balls for the Cowboys' home victory against the Raiders! We've got one for a player from each unit: offense, defense, special teams, as well as one for the coaching staff.

Offense

Miles Austin -It all began on the first offensive series, man-on-man against one of the best CBs in the game. Tony Romo stepped up in the pocket and hit Austin crossing the field as he burned Nnamdi Asomugha en route to a 49-yard gain. This was the trend for much of the day as Austin gobbled up the middle of the field and made the most of his opportunities, catching six passes for 130 yards and a TD in the first half.

Often, it's those little plays, those extra efforts that bring out the best in everybody. In the second quarter, the Cowboys faced a 3rd-and-11 deep in their own territory. Austin sat in the middle of the zone to catch just a five-yarder from Romo. He then turned, broke two tackles, and picked up the extra yardage needed for the first down. Two plays later he beat CB Chris Johnson for a 27-yard catch and run across the middle. That gain would not have happened had he not broken those two tackles on the 3rd-and-11. Do you know what else would not have happened? Felix Jones' 46-yard TD run to finish the drive.

Austin's domination of the Raiders' secondary also helped open things up for Jason Witten in the second half.

Being at the game myself, it was quite evident that Austin has quickly become a fan favorite. Girls were screaming all around me when he kept standing up off the bench and raising his hands after his replay-reversed score just before the half. He pumped up the crowd again after officially grabbing back his TD after an impressive, side-stepping screen play. When he's smiling, all seems right with the Cowboys' offense.

Honorable Mention: Tony Romo, Jason Witten

Make the jump to see who else gets a BTB game ball.

Defense

Keith Brooking - Against a poor Oakland passing team (45 yards in the first half), it was important for the Cowboys to stop the run. Brooking made his presence known from the Raiders' first possession. In successive plays, he tackled Justin Fargas for just a four-yard gain and then pressured Bruce Gradkowski into throwing an incomplete pass. On the next possession, there he was knifing through the line on a run blitz to drop Fargas for a loss (though there was an accepted holding penalty against Oakland on the play).

All day, he and Jay Ratliff terrorized the middle of the field. The Raiders' backs did manage to pop some runs loose to the outside, but Brooking always seemed to be around the ball. If he was not making the tackle himself, he was around the pile - sometimes trying to punch at the ball. He was everywhere. I even saw him cover Darren McFadden, who split out wide and ran a deep route. Not even Robert Gallery's long, sweaty hair could block Brooking from getting to the ball carrier.

He ended up leading the team (again) with nine total tackles, six of which were solos.

It's his face on the videoboard that pumps up the crowd at Cowboys Stadium. "80,000 Fans..." his image points to them when the defense is looking for a key stop..."Remember What I Said".

Honorable Mention: Jay Ratliff, DeMarcus Ware

Special Teams

Mat McBriar - Absolutely amazing day for the Cowboys' punter. While Oakland's punter kicked for more than 400 yards, McBriar responded with deadly accuracy. He averaged only 40.2 yards on six punts, but many of those were pooch kicks from around midfield - four of which landed inside the 20.

In the first quarter, a punt can't get much better than what McB did from the Oakland 41. With a little english, he pooched it to the two. He didn't even give his cover guys a chance to make a play on it because it spun and bounced out of bounds at the six. In other similar situations, he pinned the Raiders at the 11, the 13, and the 5.

When the Cowboys were pinned back, themselves, at around their 10, he blasted a 56-yarder all the way to the Oakland 35. This Aussie can do it all!

Honorable Mention: David Buehler, Pat Watkins

Coaching

Jason Garrett - This game goes down as one of the best I've seen Garrett coach this season. On a shortened work week, he had the Raiders' defense figured out from the tee. That unit had done enough damage against the Bengals' and Eagles' offenses to pull out victories, but Garrett would not let that happen to the Cowboys.

He ignored the fact that Nnamdi Asomugha is one of the best CBs in the game because he knew that his guys (most notably, Austin and Witten) would match up well against man coverage. And did they ever! Then, when it looked like the Raiders would blitz with their DBs locked in man, he made them pay with a 66-yard Razorback run from Tashard Choice. When they had to adjust to that, he hit them up the middle with Witten. With the CBs in man and the LBs in zone, there was Marion Barber wide open for a 42-yard catch and run.

The best thing about Garrett's day is the way he created passing lanes for Romo. Once Austin became the Raiders' focus, they could not stop the bleeding. LB Sam Williams could not cover Witten. And the 2TE-formation that flanked Barber in the backfield on the Roy Williams' TD was just cruel. The Raiders' defenders were utterly confused after much of the offense looked to move left, leaving noone inside to help on the post route.

Garrett did what you need to do when you face a weaker opponent: keep hitting them big to confuse them, then Felix and Barber them down until the clock reads 0:00.

Honorable Mention: Skip Peete, Todd Grantham

This was a game I had the privilege of seeing in person. Unfortunately, I happened to sit in the end zone opposite to all of the touchdowns. Still, they were great seats and it was a such a blast being there. During the TV timeouts, the Jerrytron kept the crowd entertained with fun videos. The funniest was of the offensive linemen racing go-carts.

My favorite was a Dallas Cowboys rendition of the Black Eyed Peas' song "I Gotta Feeling". The video featured every level of the team's employees from the event staff to the players. Each clip portrayed them singing the lyrics, jumping up and down, and bobbin' their heads..."Tonight's gonna be a good night...tonight's gonna be a real goood niiight!" Marion Barber, Sam Hurd...Andre Gurode and Jay Ratliff...they were all feeling it - as was the crowd, especially since the video ran as soon as we got the feeling that the game was in hand. Indeed, it was a good night.

If you have not seen my pictures from the game, you can see them on BTB's Facebook page. Here is the direct link to the album.

Before we focus our full attention on the Giants, who gets your Thanksgiving Day game balls?