SB Nation - DeSean Jackson

Potent Quotables - Dawkins Talks Philly Return

John Bena — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 02:14:21 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

1 day ago: FILE - In this Aug. 30, 2009, file photo, Denver Broncos safety Brian Dawkins (20) is shown during a preseason NFL football game against the Chicago Bears at Invesco Field at Mile High in Denver. Dawkins doesn't expect the warmest of welcomes when he makes his return to Philadelphia this Sunday. Dawkins poured everything he had into every single play during a highly successful 13-year run in Philadelphia. But the circumstances have dramatically changed. The longtime fan favorite in Philly returns Sunday as a member of the opposition. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey, File)

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HEAD COACH JOSH McDANIELS

Opening comment

"We are full blown into our preparation for the (Philadelphia) Eagles. This team is, I would say, as explosive of a team as we've played all year, no question about it. They start fast, they've pretty much dominated the first quarter all year long (and) the first half all year long, and that's the key to their success. They've got explosive players on offense. All of their skill players make great plays. (QB Donovan) McNabb is certainly one of the premiere quarterbacks of the league. Their (offensive) line protects him. They've got guys who can score from anywhere on the field. Defensively, obviously, it's a very aggressive unit that pressures you a lot, can create a lot of negative plays more than anybody in football so far this year. (They are) plus-17 in the turnover margin, which is obviously another key to their success. They create a lot of turnovers and they score with it. Then, they've got two really good kickers (K David Akers and P Sav Rocca), and then (WR) DeSean Jackson is as explosive as a returner as we're going to face all year. (We have) a great challenge ahead of us, a very well-coached football team. (They are) extremely sound with all of the things that they do, and they've been here before. They're playing very well."

On Philadelphia WR DeSean Jackson's speed

"(He is the) fastest guys we've played, no doubt. I don't know if there is anybody that I could even say is in the same category. When he's got the ball in his hands as a returner, it's a chance for a huge play. When he goes down the field, you see him break the cushion with the defensive backs faster than everybody else that you watch. He's got such an explosive burst to him, and that's why you see-I think his average touchdown is 61 yards. That's almost unheard of."

On teams looking past Jackson because of his size

"He's every bit as talented as any other player in this league on offense. Whether he weighs 170 (pounds) or 175, I know this: he doesn't take many big hits. It's hard to hit a guy who you can't catch and all the rest of it. He's tough, too. He goes over the middle. He catches balls inside. You've got to be tough to be a punt returner. He's fearless, fast, explosive, (has) great hands (and) runs really good routes. He is probably one of the better route runners that we will play all year long, too. There is nothing that he doesn't do very well."

On defending Jackson's speed

"There are not too many players in all of football who could fight his speed with their speed. I think you've got to be sound (technically). You've got to know what he's about, first of all. You've got to defend the deep part of the field well. You can't take plays off, and you've got to know what he wants to do and try to stop that from happening. Certainly, if you can disrupt the rhythm of the passing game somehow, whether that be disrupting (QB Donovan) McNabb in the pocket or trying to have a couple guys near him so that he can't just look over there and see him wide open and hit him. He's a huge problem, but there are so many of them. (RB Brian) Westbrook is going to play; (RB LeSean) McCoy and (FB Leonard) Weaver, all of them are good backs; (WR Brent) Celek is their leading receiver; (WR Jeremy) Maclin has made a bunch of big plays; (WR Jason) Avant is as physical a slot receiver as we'll play all season; and their (offensive) line does a great job of protecting. It's not like you can just take away one thing and say we're okay. You've got to defend everybody."

On looking for insight on Philadelphia from RB Correll Buckhalter and S Brian Dawkins

"I think that goes on most of the time if you've got somebody who is familiar with a team, a former team that they've played with. Anything that they can help us with in terms of the look we're getting in practice or something that may help us prepare better, we're certainly willing to listen to them and take their information and apply it."

On if he wants Broncos wide receivers to have more balanced catch totals

"You just want production. If one guy had 200 catches and we're real productive, we're throwing for a high completion percentage and making yards and scoring points-you do what's working. You do what's moving the ball. We've never been shy about throwing the ball to anybody in our offense. I'm not looking for a specific variance between No. 1's catches, No. 2's catches and No. 3's catches. They could all have the same number as far as I'm concerned, or we could have a little bit of a different deal. When you look at (WR Eddie) Royal and (WR Jabar) Gaffney, a lot of times they're splitting that position. Between the two of them, (they have) 80 catches. (WR Brandon) Marshall has got 90-something. It's close."

On establishing the running game to open up the passing attack

"Any time you're running the football and you can stay balanced, then you've got a lot more things that are going to be open to you in the passing game. Our ability to continue to run the ball for four quarters, obviously, will help us in the passing game. It has during the course of the season all year. It certainly will be no different this week."

On if he is concerned that Dawkins' is overwhelmed with the emotion of returning to play his former team

"No, I don't think-I know how he is. He's the ultimate professional, in my opinion. He's going to get himself ready to go. He's going to be himself. Emotion has always played a part in his preparation (and) has always played a part in his leadership. His energy and enthusiasm and what he does, I think that affects our team in a positive way. I think it affects him in a positive way. I wouldn't expect him to do anything different. Might he feel a little bit more emotion this week? Sure, I think that would be natural."

On Philadelphia's fans reacting warmly to Dawkins return

"He and ‘Buck'(halter) both played a large role in a lot of the success that they've had over the years. I'm sure that those people in Philadelphia appreciate both of them greatly, and they should. I'm sure they feel the same about their experience there. They were at a great organization with a great coaching staff, great owner, and I'm sure both of them really relished the time that they were there. It'll probably be very exciting for them to go back there and see a lot of old faces, and hopefully, play well."

QB KYLE ORTON

On what has contributed the Philadelphia defense's high interception total

"(Their) scheme, talent, they're very aggressive and like you said, they've got talented guys on the outside. They have guys who if you do throw it to them, they catch it and certainly make a lot of plays after they do (intercept) it. (CB Asante) Samuel, (CB Sheldon) Brown and the safeties, they all can cover a lot of ground and make a lot of plays on the balls in the air."

On his mindset following the loss to Oakland

"(It's on) Philadelphia. That's the only place it can be. This team presents so many problems that if your mind is anywhere else, you won't be ready to go."

On if Philadelphia is the toughest place to play in the NFL

"There are a lot of tough places to play. Certainly, (as) an offense working against their defense, you have to have so much communication because of all the things they do that it is tough. There is a ton of communication that is going to have to go on this week to pick up the blitz (and) to pick up all the different looks that they bring. It'll certainly be a bigger issue with all of the crowd noise."

On Philadelphia's fans

"They're good ones. Guys love that stuff. You love when you go on the road and the fans are nasty and they're in your face and all that stuff. Guys love to play in that kind of stuff."

On if he has a natural tendency to pass to WR Brandon Marshall more than other receivers

"No, I go through my reads, and a lot of times, he's the guy who I'm going to. He does a great job of getting open. No, I try to just continue to go through my reads, and if he's the one that's open, then I'll give him the ball."

On if he has forced the ball to Marshall

"I haven't tried to force it to him, no. Certainly, in critical situations and you need a play, you're going to go to your best guy, and he's our best guy, for sure. I'm not necessarily trying to force him the ball at all."

On if he is surprised by WR Eddie Royal's reception total

"I don't know. He's had games where he's had 10 or 11 catches and he's had games with no catches. Obviously, we'd like to get him the ball more consistently. He does such a nice job with it and certainly just kind of turns into that punt returner when he gets the ball. We'd like to get him the ball in space and let him make plays with it when it's in his hands."

On the defensive attention that Royal receives

"You'd have to go through and look at all the plays, but we'd like to get him the ball on a more consistent basis, for sure."

On the need to score points playing against Philadelphia's explosive offense

"You have to score points and hopefully, do it early to get the lead. I think this team that we're playing, they love to play with the lead so much, and they're so aggressive (defensively) that if they get the lead and they can put you into passing situations, you're going to see a blitz on every down at that point. If we can come out early, play well and be able to stay in phase and run the football, we should be able to slow down some of the things they like to do."

On Philadelphia's 36 takeaways this season

"They blitz so much that you have unblocked guys coming at the quarterback, and the quarterback has to get the ball out. There's no question about it, they blitz so many guys that you just can't pick it up. When the quarterback is under duress, he's trying to find open guys and they're trapping guys, they're jumping routes and Samuel is very playing aggressive and coming off of his guy to make a play on another guy. Everything is just coming at the quarterback so fast and they're extremely aggressive and smart in the back end trying to be just as aggressive and making plays."

On the offense when RB Correll Buckhalter is healthy

"It's shown to be better, and ‘Buck' has played great all year and has really hit some long runs for us and has done a nice job. Hopefully, we get him back and have that one-two punch (with RB Knowshon Moreno)."

On the mental challenge facing Philadelphia's aggressive defense

"You don't want to throw the ball too quickly if you don't have to, and you don't want to hang on to it when you've got to get it out, so you've got to be on it every play and try to figure out as much as you can and get the ball to the right guy."

On Philadelphia's ability to disguise blitzes

"They do a great job. (They're) probably one of the best teams in the league at disguising their blitzes."

On the importance of establishing the running game against Philadelphia

"We'd love to get the running game (going). Like I said, we'd love to play with the lead. More than anything, we'd like to stay out of long-yardage situations and stay right in phase."

S BRIAN DAWKINS

On returning to Philadelphia

"It is a big game for us as a team, as an organization. We still have some things yet to be done and this is a huge game for us as a football team moving forward."

On his emotions on returning to Philadelphia

"My emotions are going to be where they are when the time comes. There is no use of me pouring out my emotions and all that stuff now because it is not going to do any good. When it is going to do good is when we touch the field and I'm everything I need to be for my teammates, using my emotion into that and not just relying on my emotion but allowing my emotions to enhance my play hopefully."

On the best part of playing for Philadelphia

"The best part? I don't know if there is one particular best part. I think anytime that you spend a long time in one place, you connect with teammates and the relationships that you form-me being a blessed man of God, the people that I've been able to come in contact with from a spiritual aspect was always a blessing to be there when people come through there. Then, my connection with the fans is always something that I'll love (and) I'll cherish."

On why Philadelphia fans loved him so much

"Philly is a blue-collar place. They work hard for what they have in their families. Not saying that isn't everywhere, but you understand what I'm saying. They want someone to care as much as they do on the football field. If they don't feel like you are giving your all, if they don't feel like that and you are pulling yourself out on the field, then they are going to let you know about it. They aren't going to hold their tongues. They are going to let you know exactly how they feel. I've always played with my emotions on my shoulders, whether it was crying or whatever I feel like, that is what I let out. I've always been that way. I think that connected with them."

On the atmosphere playing at Philadelphia on Sunday

"It is going to be an electric atmosphere, I know that. It is going to be very hyped, but at the end of the day, once the whistle is blown on that first kickoff, after that first hit its football. I have to dial in, me and my teammates have to dial in. This is not just about me going back home. I know that is the story that you guys are going to write up, but this is about the Denver Broncos going in to Philadelphia, a tough place to play against a very good football team. That is where our focus needs to be."

On Sunday's game at Philadelphia

"It is going to be a fight. We have to make this a fight. I understand the attitude and the mood of what they are talking about in the meeting rooms and their mentality period as far as this time of the year. I understand that. At the end of the day, it is about execution. We have to go down and execute our game plans to a ‘T.' Whatever the coaches are asking us to do, we have to do it and do it with a belief that the things that they are asking us to do will give us a chance to win the ballgame. If we do that, we'll put ourselves in position, and we'll see what happens."

On how to slow down Philadelphia WR DeSean Jackson

"You have to limit him. You have to limit, especially, his yards after (the) catch because he is going to catch footballs. He is a dynamic football player (with) speed, agility, quickness and all that good stuff. The thing that you have to do is, when he does catch the ball, limit his yards after catch. That means having tight coverage. That means making open field tackles at some point on him. That is going to be a total defensive effort."

On RB Brian Westbrook's contribution to Philadelphia's running game

"He doesn't just add something to the running game; he is a weapon all over the field. They split him out at receiver. They get him the ball in screens. They use him in so many different ways. He is not just a running back. Having that dimension back in that offense is huge. We have to make sure we pay attention to him when he gets in the football game. He is definitely somebody-and I don't have to tell anybody this-that you can't take him for granted at all because at any given moment, he is a special guy and he can light you up."

On his relationship with Westbrook

"He is one of my best friends on the team, and I'm constantly in contact with him. There were a lot of prayers sent up by me for him going through what he has been going through with those concussions and other injuries that have seemed to creep up on him."

On his relationship with QB Donovan McNabb

"(We have a) great relationship. I have a great relationship (with McNabb). I know he is just like anybody else coming into Philadelphia that has played there in the past. He is going to attack me. If you give him the opportunity, he is going to throw the ball my way and see if he can fit it in there. He is a guy who loves to play the game, he loves to step up to challenges and he likes to have a good time on the field. Like I said, I don't expect him to do anything differently than they would do with anybody else. Given the opportunity, he is going to throw my way."

On what it will be like to come out of the visiting locker room and tunnel at Philadelphia

"I don't know. We'll see once I get there."

On his favorite memory playing for Philadelphia

"My favorite memory of them is just the party, the celebration we had after we beat Atlanta to go to the Super Bowl (in 2004) after failing so many times before. What that celebration was for the fans and for the coaches and to see the tears flowing in the stands with the fans-because we didn't win the Super Bowl but we had fallen short to get to that point so many times-that will be something that I'll always remember."

On if this is the most explosive Philadelphia's offense has been during his career

"They were pretty explosive our Super Bowl year (in 2004) when (Buffalo WR) Terrell (Owens) was there. I think that they were doing everything they wanted to do then. They have the personnel to do it (now), so (Head Coach Andy Reid) is opening that thing wide open.

The Linc - Reno Mahe, Leonard Weaver, Donovan McNabb, & Brian Dawkins

JasonB — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 18:00:32 -0000

by Michael Perez - AP

4 days ago: Philadelphia Eagles' Leonard Weaver, left, hurdles a diving tackle by San Francisco 49ers' Parys Haralson in the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 20, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Michael Perez)

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Philadelphia prepares to welcome back Dawkins | dawkins, englewood, philadelphia - Sports - Colorado Springs Gazette, CO
A Denver based writer interviewed myself and Enrico from the700level about the return of Dawkins.

The Seattle Times: Steve Kelley: No-name Weaver impresses Hawks
The first time Leonard Weaver touched the football in the first minicamp of his life, he made an impression.

McNabb knows the meaning of giving | Philadelphia Daily News | 12/23/2009
DONOVAN McNABB didn't have to do it. He didn't have to brave the double-digit-inch snowfall that blasted the Delaware Valley last Saturday to keep his word to attend an event featuring a Christmas shopping spree at a Target store for 130 children from a Mount Airy shelter.

Eagle Mountain reaches out to American Samoa - Salt Lake Tribune
Wondering what Reno Mahe is up to?

NFL draft: What were they thinking? | Philadelphia Daily News | 12/23/2009
Here is further proof that scouting isn't an exact science: DeSean Jackson was the seventh wide receiver taken in the 2008 draft. A look at Jackson's stats, compared with the six wideouts selected ahead of him:

BBC - Neil Reynolds's Blog: McNabb thrives despite tough Philadelphia love
A perspective on the Eagles and McNabb from across the pond.

The700Level.com - Philly Sports & Minutiae: Santa's Revenge
This epic photo was taken on Sunday by reader Alex F. He writes: "At long last, Santa Claus finally gets his chance to throw snowballs back at Eagles fans. This guy was in the first row of the middle tier...

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 15

TJ Johnson — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 16:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Kyle: Can I be Mr. Orange? Josh: Do your job. Convert this 3rd-and-2!

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"You stats shouldn't play so rough. Somebody's gonna start crying."

--Mr. Blonde

Some teams bark all day, little doggy. And some teams bite.

Week 15 was supposed to be an easy caper for the playoff-bound teams in the NFL. Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Indianapolis were all looking to get in, do their job, and get out--unscathed and without too much gun play. Only two of these teams (Philly and Indy) actually escaped with a win.

As usually happens when jobs get botched, the better team isn't done-in by the play of the other team. No, that's rarely how it happens. Usually it's an inside job.

This was certainly the case with your Denver Broncos. While the Oakland Raiders showed they had some ammunition, it was the Broncos that turned on themselves. The Broncos were too careless (missed tackles, bad angles, and missed blocks). They were too cute (a pass to Ryan Clady and a QB sneak on 2nd down). And in the end, there they were - wounded from field goals and gashed from the running game, while JaMarcus Russell walked away with the cash.

Welcome to another week of The Stats That Don't Lie, your weekly rendezvous where we pick our statistical aliases. These are the stats that don't believe in tipping. They are the stats that don't talk, no matter how much you torture them. As always they are Turnovers, Field Position, Time of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

This week's edition is real special, too, and not just because I'm making Reservoir Dogs references. It's because I'm finally going to exhaust Denver's 3rd-down woes. (Note: I tried to link all references for Broncos fans born after 1990).

The Big Picture & 3rd Downs

Usually I put up a graph each week expounding upon the turnover margin in Denver's win/loss. This week, Denver won the turnover battle and lost the game, so it's a good time to look at what has been another key area for Denver (we´ll deal with turnovers shortly). It´s no secret that Denver has struggled on 3rd downs. But just how bad has it been? Not as bad as taking one to the gut, but let´s take a look:

The blue line is the league-average per game since the Broncos' bye week. It has ranged from 37.13% to 37.79%. This is normal. The league average usually runs between 37% and 38%. The orange line is Denver's 3rd-down percentage per game through the bye week as well. In Denver's last 8 games, they've manage to best this league average but one time. In 3 of the 8 games, they didn't even hit 30%. As you'll see in the rankings, they are averaging a paltry 34.53% per game.

Clearly, this is a huge problem. Consider the 15-week average per game of the playoff teams if the season were to end today, in addition to the four biggest threats to Denver's wild-card spot.

Indianapolis: 51.61%
San Diego: 41.81%
New England: 42.45%
Cincinnati: 41.71%
Baltimore: 40.08%
Denver: 34.53%
Jacksonville: 43.08%
PIttsburgh: 39.11%
Miami: 47.10%
Tennessee: 40.00%

Someone on this list doesn't have a cool-sounding 3rd-down rate, and we are not talking about the Colts. Even though the Broncos are within one standard deviation (about 6%) from the mean of 37.71%, the Broncos are fortunate that their defense has produced some timely turnovers this year. One might even wonder how a team with such a bad 3rd-down percentage is in the position of making the playoffs. For now, let's chalk it up to orange-and-blue leprechauns and move on.

3rd Downs - Hooked On a Feeling

The real question is, "Why have the Broncos done so poorly on 3rd downs all year long?" Stats can only do so much of the heavy lifting, but we'll give it a shot, anyway.

Many have postulated that it's the offensive line, the play calling, or Knowshon Moreno himself. Some view Peyton Hillis as the bionic man. Perhaps he should be getting more carries. Or some want to blame a certain bad ass with the finest neck beard this side of the Mississippi. I'm hearing none of it.

I have a different theory. It's less complex. And it doesn't require pointing fingers.

Simply, it's this team's first experience with "Erhardt-Perkins" offense. As Tom Brady has repeatedly alluded, getting used to this complex offensive system, installed with the Patriots by Charlie Weis, takes at least two years to get used to, if not more. But let's not take Brady's word for it, let's look at the numbers.

We simply need to go back to the 2000 Patriots, when Weis installed the offense and look at the Patriots' 3rd-down conversion rate between 2000 and 2001. In 2000, the Patriots were 35% on 3rd downs. In 2001, that number jumped 6% to 41%. Now, there is one big difference between 2000 and 2001. And that's Tom Brady at quarterback. But it was his second year in the system, and I don't believe Brady's numbers would have been the same had he had that first year as a rookie to learn Weis's system.

The Football Outsiders, who many stats geeks worship like I do Pam Grier, would agree. They've had a theory going about 3rd downs for several years:

Teams which are strong on first and second down, but weak on third down, will tend to improve the following year...over time, a team will play as well in those situations as it does in other situations, which will bring the overall offense or defense in line with the offense and defense on first and second down.

This year Denver has rushed for 977 yards on 1st down, good for 4th-best in the league in that category. Here is the precise breakdown on 1st and 2nd downs when compared to 3rd down:

1st Down-Average Running Play: 4.2 yards; Average Passing Play: 7.02 yards
2nd Down-Average Running Play: 4.71 yards; Average Passing Play: 5.99 yards
3rd Down-Average Running Play: 2.62 yards; Average Passing Play: 5.19 yards

Your eyes do not deceive you. On 3rd down, Denver struggles. If the Football Outsiders' theory is correct (it has been over the last 7 years) and history repeats itself with the Broncos' learning curve with respect to the "Erhardt-Perkins" system, we are looking at a team next year which is poised to improve drastically in 3rd-down efficiency. Take it to the bank.

Stuck in the Middle With You on 3rd-and-Short

Since we are beating the 3rd-down horse, it's also useful to bring up the play calling on 3rd and short. A lot of fans have been lamenting the Broncos' struggle on 3rd and short and hoping the team would pass more often. While this is completely understandable, just know that the percentages actually favor running in these situations--by a good margin. Once again, I present to you one of the little gems from the Football Outsiders:

On average, passing will always gain more yardage than running, with one very important exception: when a team is just one or two yards away from a new set of downs or the goal line. On third-and-1, a run will convert for a new set of downs 36 percent more often than a pass. Expand that to all third or fourth downs with 1-2 yards to go, and the run is successful 40 percent more often. With these percentages, the possibility of a long gain with a pass is not worth the tradeoff of an incomplete that kills a drive...

...Teams pass roughly 60 percent of the time on third-and-2 even though runs in that situation convert 20 percent more often than passes. They pass 68 percent of the time on fourth-and-2 even though runs in that situation convert twice as often as passes.

As bad as Denver has been in short-yardage situations this year on 3rd and 4th down, it's still not swimming upstream against these percentages. And if you don't think McDaniels knows the percentages, you are fooling yourself. Still want more proof? Consider that on 3rd-and-3 (or less):

Kyle Orton is 7 out of 15 passing (54%)

Knowshon Moreno is 10 out of 15 rushing (67%)

Moreno just happens to be converting on 3rd-and-3 (or less) about 24% more often than when Orton throws in the same situation. This is slightly higher than the Football Outsiders would estimate, but we are dealing with a relatively small sample size. However, the point is still valid. McDaniels is generally making the right call when he continues to run the ball on third and short.

For those that believe Peyton Hillis is Charles Bronson, ask yourself if he could have done any better than 10 out of 15? If you can look yourself in the mirror with any seriousness and answer, "yes," than we'll just have to act like professionals. Maurice Jones-Drew has picked up 17 out of 22 (77%), so you'd be putting Hillis in that kind of company. Given that Hillis has only averaged 3.4 in his 5 carries this year up the middle, I'm skeptical. Moreno has had 62 carries up the middle and averages 3.7.

The Offensive Line - Hold It...A Little Big Longer

If you want to point to the offensive line and losing Ryan Harris, then we've got some common ground. This loss is a lot bigger problem than McDaniels would like you to believe. Here is what Denver was averaging per carry on the ground (pre-Oakland) through 14 weeks:

Left End Left Tackle Left Guard Middle Left Middle Right Right Guard Right Tackle Right End

4.2 4.6 5.2 3.6 3.4 4.4 5.5 4.7

If you were scouting the Broncos and you saw these numbers, it would become clear to you very quickly that the strength of this offensive line was on the right side of the ball in general and on the outside edges--at least with respect to running. It's even clearer when you look at the right-end runs and left-end runs, because Daniel Graham is shifting in the formation and these numbers are directly related to him. If the left side of the line were as good as the right, you would expect the numbers on the right-end to be similar to those on the left-end. This isn't a knock on Ryan Clady--far from it if you look at the numbers off left tackle. It's simply a recognition of the importance of Ryan Harris (and also Polumbus, who has played well in the running game).

This is data a casual fan comprehends, but it is also backed up by a short-yardage asssessment as in BShrout's impressive analysis here. In addition, it's backed up by slightly more complex statistics as well, as witnessed by Jeremy Bolander's excellent post last week, in which he applies Sharpe Ratios to running plays behind each of Denver's offensive linemen. Bolander cleverly noted the reward gained (represented by the standard deviation) in-and-above a "safe" play of a zero yard gain:

...the ratios for running behind Weigmann, Hochstein/Hamilton are generally quite poor, at 0.14 and -0.18. Clady is better, clocking in at .300375 while Kuper dominates in short yardage at 1.78885. Too often, however, the one cut has been designed to bend back away from Kuper's stellar blocking. When the blocking scheme is more straight ahead, we seem to take advantage of his side more.

This certainly correlates to a general strategy of Denver being more effective when running to the right side.

When taken as a whole, all of this would suggest that Denver is going to continue to struggle a bit on 3rd downs. The quarterbacks and receivers continue to learn the complex "Erhardt-Perkins" scheme, and the absence of Harris and the play of the offensive line, while it hasn't been horrendous, has shown consistency issues. As other teams continue their run slants, rush blitzes, and stacking the line of scrimmage, (as both the Raiders and Colts did), look for McDaniels to counter with strategies like play action.

Team Rankings:

Here's where the Broncos stack up against the rest of the league after Week 15. As always, remember these are averages/game (in my mind a better measure than aggregate numbers):

While Denver continues its spiral on 3rd downs (the St. Louis Rams rank just below them), they still rank high in both giveaways (which I consistently label "turnovers") and turnover margin per game. Don't turn the ball over. Play good defense, capitalize on the mistakes of the other team. This was, is, and will continue to be their ticket to winning.

Given Denver's ranking in average starting field position (28.98-yard line) per game, I was pleasantly surprised in the Oakland game to see Kenny McKinley back returning. I thought he showed a great burst and quickness that will only get better. Although I had been clamoring for Alphonso Smith, I'll take what I can get. I was never sold that Eddie Royal was the longterm answer. Not because he wasn't capable, but because we'll never see another Tim Brown in this league. I think letting Royal be a receiver is the right move. And, outside of the San Diego game, the numbers weren't eye-popping (23.9 yards/kick). Royal was being asked to do too many things. When you've got jokers to your left and Raiders to the right, you need a guy who is focused on returns and rested between each series.

There's not much to say about Denver's time of possession other than they are sitting right at the league average.

From the rankings above, one team you must absolutely love is the Green Bay Packers, even after their loss to the Steelers in Week 15. I know, I know, the Steelers threw the ball all over the yard on them. But Aaron Rodgers is as underrated as Jay Cutler is overrated. They rank 1st in turnover margin, 2nd in giveaways, 1st in field position, 4th in time of possession, and 5th in 3rd-down efficiency. While the Packers are no Foxy Brown, they are still a whole lot of playoff team. I continue to think that the Packers can play with the Saints and Vikings, and I would personally love to see Rodgers send Favre back to retirement. If that makes me a Favre hater, then okay, but I prefer to think of it more like I am a hater of the Mainstream Media crush that exists for so-called "gunslingers." I mean, it's not like the the guy is taking anyone on a magic carpet ride with his arm this year anyway.

The teams that are the most dangerous from these rankings are the teams that rank high in both turnover margin and 3rd-down efficiency, because once the playoffs start, you need a team that at once doesn't make errors and which capitalizes on errors. And a team that can "make plays," which is just code for converting on 3rd downs. Right now, I would say this list includes, in no particular order:

Indianapolis
San Diego
Green Bay
Minnesota
New Orleans
New England
Cincinnati

Each of these teams is in the top ten in both categories, although the Chargers seem to have the most momentum of the whole bunch, as much as it pains me to say it.

Last week a few of you pointed out that perhaps I should finally let up on Jay Cutler as he continues his assault on history. I thought about it for one Sunday, but before I could say "Like a Virgin," "True Blue," or "Borderline," Culter had thrown 25 picks for the year. T his is the most in NFL history for a non-rookie quarterback in his first year with a new team. That's a strange stat indeed. Suffice to say the guy is to interceptions as a Tarantino movie is to F-Bombs. You lose count 20 minutes in.

Imagine how bad it would be if the Bears didn't rank 5th in average starting field position. Actually, it might have worked out better for the Bears if they didn't rank so high because then Cutler wouldn't begin so close to the red zone.

Week 15 - The Games

Let's start where we always begin, with the Broncos-Raiders game Since I was a big advocate two days ago of simply forgetting the game, I won't say too much, except that given the Raiders turned the ball over twice, it would appear that Denver would have won this game. But, if you read these ramblings columns on a weekly basis, you know I am a big "context" guy. Yes, turnovers are bad. Yes, if you are plus-1 in turnover margin, the stats say you'll win about 70% of the time. Get to plus-2 and you're at 80%. Yes, all of this is true. However, you also know that turnovers committed early in a game can be overcome--even by a decade of washed-up first-round draft picks known as the Oakland Raiders. Oakland committed one of its turnovers on its 2nd drive (1st quarter) and the other on its 8th (3rd quarter). But they had 12 drives in the game with which to work.

And what did Denver do with these two turnovers? They put up 10 points off of them. And yet they still did not win. This is what happens when you crawl around at 26% on 3rd downs. Not even Lee Marvin could get you out of that one.

If you want another interesting stat that hasn't received any attention from the Denver game, it's the following: on Oakland's scoring drives, they ran the ball 13 times for a total of 94 yards. This represents an average of 7.2 yards per carry, which is almost what Oakland's average was for the entire game running the ball. But the standard deviation of this data set was 8.8 yards. This is my smarty-pants way of saying that the Raiders running game was feast or famine. They had a lot of 1- and 3-yard carries, but also several carries over 20 yards.

Everyone is commenting on the New Orleans-Dallas game, so I might as well throw in my two cents. New Orleans had 11 drives in the game. They committed turnovers on 3 of them. That left them with 8 drives. And the Cowboys got out to a big lead, so in the 2nd half they ran the ball effectively and killed the clock, which led to their domination of the time of possession. Did I mention that Drew Brees was 14% on 3rd down? Given that New Orleans is usually at 43% on 3rd downs, this was quite a feat. Dallas got pressure, and they got it with their front 4.

Two other games I briefly want to mention. First, the Jags-Indy game. Two weeks ago, I developed a profile of what a Colts loss would look like, based on their losses since 2005. In Week 15, the Jacksonville Jaguars almost matched that profile. They ran, and ran, and ran, rushing 34 times in the game. They tried their very best to keep Peyton Manning off the field. They matched the Colts step for step on 3rd down. And what happened? Oh, just a 93-yard kickoff return from the Colts for a touchdown. Manning lives to fight another day.

The second game I wanted to point out is the Eagles-Niners game - if for nothing else, to simply point out that San Francisco was 0% in 3rd-down efficiency. The Niners also turned the ball over 4 times. But somehow they avoided the blowout and made a game of it. They even managed an average of 5.9 yards per rush against the Eagles. The Eagles can be beaten.

The Summaries

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

7 teams had 0 turnovers. 5 won (71%); For the season, 67/87 (77%)
8 teams had 1 turnover. 4 won (50%); For the season, 75/129 (58%)
7 teams had 2 turnovers. 5 won (71%); For the season, 56/122 (46%)
6 teams had 3 turnovers. 2 won (33%); For the season, 22/67 (33%)
2 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 4/29 (14%)
2 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 0/14 (0%)

Week 15 - Big Picture

The team that won the turnover battle (removing ties) won 8 of 11 games played (73%)
5 games were tied in the turnover battle.
The team that won the time of possession battle won 11 of the 16 games played (69%).
The team that had better third-down efficiency won 13 of the 16 games played (81%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 7 of the 16 games played (44%).
There were 4 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In all 4, the same team won on the scoreboard (100%).
The winning teams this week averaged 1.25 turnovers, 31:32 in time of possession, 44.32% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 30.82-yard line.

Top 5 in Week 15:

Top 5 in giveaways: 7 Teams Tied with 0.
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.Carolina 2.Dallas 3.Jacksonville 4.Pittsburgh 5.Cleveland

Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.Giants 2.Indy 3.Jacksonville 4.Green Bay 5.Dallas/Saint Louis
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.Baltimore 2.Cleveland 3.Tampa Bay 4.Buffalo 5.Giants

Running Totals, Season (through 15 weeks):

224 games have been played this season
75.80% (or 141/186) were won by the team with less turnovers (removing ties)
38 games were tied in the turnover battle
66.52% with a better time of possession
68.75% by the team who won on 3rd down
69.64% by the team that won the field-position battle.

15-week League Averages:

15-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.71

15-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:10 (thanks to OT games)

15-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.79%

15-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.91-yard line

The Look Ahead

Looking ahead to Philadelphia, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd-Down Efficiency

Denver 1.36 30:03 29.98 34.53%

Philadelphia 1.36 28:20 31.17 37.90%

The teams are even on turnovers. The good news is that Philadelphia's time-of-possession stat tells you one important thing about this game. The Eagles are a passing team. This plays into Denver's strength. It's also encouraging that as a passing team, the Eagles' 3rd-down-conversion percentage isn't higher. This again bodes well for Denver, especially if Denver can shut down DeSean Jackson on special teams.

The traditional thinking is that home field advantage adds about 3 extra points of value. In this game, I'd also remove that off the top because this is a homecoming for Brian Dawkins. With the kind of love that city has for BDawk, you might as well add three points for the visitors. Dawkins is going to put the lime in the coconut and drink em both together after this win. Ramblers, start ramblin'.

Hail, Brian Dawkins!!

Last stat: 99.99% (percentage chance that they would let Brian Dawkins have the alias Mr. Black, without fighting).

Horse Tracks 12/23/09 - No kidding - root for the Chargers, Patriots, Colts this week, hard as it may be

Douglas A. Lee — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 12:52:09 -0000

LTC - Denver’s déjà vu December - Brian Howell
"So, who should Bronco fans root for? For starters, go with San Diego (as hard as that might be). The Chargers could hand Tennessee a devastating loss Friday. Next, go with New England. The Patriots could knock out Jacksonville this week and Houston the following week (unless Miami takes care of the Texans this week). Broncos fans ought to also root for Indianapolis to get to 15-0; if it does, that means the Jets are done. Finally, the Broncos need Pittsburgh and Miami to each lose a game along the way (they play each other in the season finale). "

LTC - Opportunity Rocks - Brian Howell

DPP - Eagles' big plays present big problems for Broncos - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Analysis: Broncos must rush to improve run defense - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Cornerback Carter surprise of Broncos' rookie class - Lindsay Jones
I've read several times over the past 24 hours from DP writers that Knowshon hasn't had a 100-yard game yet. Why in the world does that matter? They don't mention that he's topped 75 yards eight different times (and 90, twice), despite receiving 20+ carries only four times. His season-high carry total was 23 against the Colts. Like yesterday, I'm not claiming Knowshon is having a spectacular year or that he's been everything I'd hoped. But from what I've read since Sunday, you'd think the guy had 300 yards on the season. Yes, one can argue that Buck has a much higher YPA behind the same line, but he also has half the carries and it's very hard to say he'd hold up with more. You don't hand a guy who's had three major knee injuries the ball 200 times a year.

DB - From the Heart - Gray Caldwell
Chris Baker, Robert Ayers and Alphonso Smith brightened the day for a few young cancer patients. Now Ted, pay close attention to the pictures on this one. You'll see that Pho Smith has some pretty sharp style - hahaha talk about timing...

DB - Christmas Comes Early - Broncos TV

DB - Broncos Finish Strong in Fan Voting - Zach Eisendrath

DPP - Q&A: Hold off on judging Cutler trade - Jeff Legwold

CSG - Philadelphia prepares to welcome back Dawkins - Frank Schwab

KDVR - Broncos still control playoff destiny, for now - Zubin Mehenti

Eagles News

PI - Faith & fury: The contradictions of Brian Dawkins - Frank Fitzpatrick

PDN - Eagles owner Lurie on Dawkins: The most favorite of all - Rich Hofmann

PI - Lurie remains fond of Dawkins - Bob Brookover

PDN - Eagles struck it rich drafting DeSean Jackson at No. 49 - Paul Domowitch

PDN - McNabb knows the meaning of giving - Kerith Gabriel

AFC West News

SDUT - Titan on the fast track - Chris Jenkins

SDUT - Mruczkowski out; Hardwick about ready - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Chargers' next opponent: Scouting the Titans - Jay Posner

NFL - Chargers' win streak, gaudy numbers push Rivers into MVP race - Bucky Brooks

KCS - Chiefs receiving corps isn’t catching on - Kent Babb

KCS - Chiefs place TE Cottam on injured reserve - Kent Babb

ESPN - How I See It: AFC West Stock Watch - Bill Williamson

NFL News

NFL - Bengals, commissioner Goodell among mourners at Henry's funeral

NFL - Colts' Manning edges Saints' Brees for most Pro Bowl votes

NFL - Saints cut veteran Carney after Hartley retakes kicker job

NFL - Long snapper Robinson returns to Seahawks; Houser out for season
That would be old friend Jeff Robinson, the DE turned TE turned LS Jeff Robinson...

NFL - Brown out: Starting QB Quinn lost to another season-ending injury

NFL Opinion

SI - NFL Playoff Projections, Scenarios for Week 16 - Dom Bonvissuto
"Oddly enough, we project the Broncos will lose to Philly this weekend but still make the postseason."

FH - Predicting the Playoffs: the AFC Race Is All Scrambled Up - JJ Cooper

NYT - N.F.L. Kickers Are Suddenly the Gang That Can’t Shoot Straight - Judy Battista

CBS - Scrooged: League again delivers awful holiday scheduling - Clark Judge

CBS - Saturday stunner highlighted Saints weaknesses, Cowboys strenghts - Charley Casserly

NFP - Favre, Chilly drama will be fixed with win - Matt Bowen

NFL - Favre isn't to blame for Vikings' recent struggles - Vic Carucci

FOX - Dear Brett: This ain't no love letter - Jason Whitlock

NFP - Tavern talk: Fisher plays it safe - Mike Lombardi

SN - Top teams debate whether to take late-season breather - Vinnie Iyer

FOX - NFC playoff contenders also pretenders - Adam Schein

Y! - Five figure prominently in tight MVP race - Jason Cole

ESPN - Cornerbacks among top defensive player of the year candidates - Len Pasquarelli

SI - Colts still alive in NFL team of decade debate - Don Banks

PFW - All-America team - Nolan Nawrocki

The Mistake by the Lake

NFP - DMN: Browns need a fresh start - Mike Lombardi

NFP - The price of stability in Cleveland - Robert Boland

SI - Browns recruited Mike Holmgren right way; NFL mailbag - Peter King

SI - Browns should keep Eric Mangini; Raiders are on right track - Jerome Bettis

NYT - Browns, Quinn and Holmgren’s Mighty Challenge - Luis DeLoureiro

Power Rankings

Y! - Traditionally cursed Cards avoid one - Mike Silver

ESPN - NFL Power Rankings Week 16

FH - NFL Power Rankings, Week 16: Wild Races for Wild Cards - Josh Alper

CBS - Power Rankings: Fouts-like Rivers belongs in MVP talk - Pete Prisco

Giants at Redskins: 'Kudos & Wet Willies' preview

Ed Valentine — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 16:00:28 -0000

Let me start by saying this. As a New York Giants fan, I do not have the best feeling in the world about tonight's matchup with the Washington Redskins.

The 4-9 Redskins have played much better than their record indicates in recent weeks, they have a stout defense, and they will be at home. The 7-6 Giants? Well, we should know by now that we just don't know with this team.

Will the defense show up, or will it just play the role of sieve as it has so many times this season?

What part of the special teams will cost the Giants points this week? C'mon, we know one of them will.

Can the offense, playing against a good Redskin defense, score enough points to make up for all the shortcomings around it?

Who knows. The Giants need to win, and they should win. But, things are different for each of these teams than they were in Week 1, when the Giants won, 23-17.

With all of that said, let's run through our usual 'Kudos & Wet Willies' style preview.

There will be lots of 'Kudos' Tuesday if ...

The Giants win in the Red Zone. This will not be easy. The Giants have the league's worst-ranked defense and 25th-ranked offense in that area of the field. So, bluntly, they have been terrible. Washington, on the other hand, has the league's best defense and ninth-ranked offense in the Red Zone. Ominous numbers the Giants must find a way to neutralize.
The defense shows up. Two weeks ago against Dallas Bill Sheridan's group played much more like the unit we expected to see this season. Last week against Philadelphia the defense reverted to the unit we have seen more often than not the last eight weeks. No pass rush, putrid coverage, blown assignments and no big plays. The Redskins offense is not great, and the Giants can't afford to make it look that way.
The Giants can run the ball, at least a little. The Redskins are 23rd in the league against the run. We all know, though, that they will stack the box and try to take Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw away from the Giants. Kevin Gilbride and the Giants have to run enough not to be one-dimensional against an excellent Redskins pass rush.
Eli Manning has a big day. Seems like this is always the case with this version of the Giants. Offensively, they will ride the right arm of Manning and the big-play ability of their exciting group of young wide receivers.

There will be lots of 'Wet Willies' Tuesday if ...

The Giants can't handle Brian Orakpo and Andre Carter. The bookend Redskin defensive ends have been what Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora were supposed to be -- the most dominant duo of pass-rushing ends in the league. They both have 11 sacks, making Washington the only team in the league with two players in double-digits. Rookie Will Beatty will have to deal with Carter, and David Diehl will have to handle Orakpo. If those guys are in the backfield all day, Eli won't be able to create the big plays the Giants will need.
The special teams break down -- again. It seems like every week some area of the special teams falls flat on its face. Last week it was punt coverage, surrendering a touchdown to DeSean Jackson. I would hope for more, but I will settle for the Giants at least not making any huge special teams miscues.
The Giants can't get pressure. Ugh! Again, we need to talk about this. Redskins QB Jason Campbell has posted two straight weeks of 100+ quarterback ratings and has 17 touchdown passes. He might not have a future in Washington, but he isn't exactly JaMarcus Russell. If the Giants don't make him uncomfortable, I have no doubt he will torch the team's beleaguered secondary.

Young Eagles hit milestones

JasonB — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 15:49:10 -0000

More photos » by Michael Perez - AP

4 days ago: Philadelphia Eagles' LeSean McCoy reacts after rushing for a touchdown in the second half of an NFL football game against the San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, Dec. 20, 2009, in Philadelphia. Philadelphia won 27-13. (AP Photo/Michael Perez)

Browse more photos »

Two of the youngest Eagles hit two major milestones yesterday... First, DeSean Jackson became the third WR under Andy Reid to hit the thousand yard mark, the other two being TO and Kevin Curtis. The most amazing thing about that stat is that Jackson got to 1,087 on only 56 catches. To provide some context, Wes Welker currently has 1,198 rec yards on 109 catches. Jackson is averaging nearly 20 yards per catch.

DeSean is also tied for the NFL lead in total TDs for a receiver.

"Honestly, it's a great feeling. I would not have been able to do it without the playcalling and without Donovan," Jackson said of reaching the 1,000-yard mark. "You have to give credit to Kevin (Kolb) and (Michael) Vick. Without those guys, I would not be able to be as successful as possible. I am just trying to do anything and everything I can to help this team for the long haul.

"Our goal is the Super Bowl. We just have to keep playing like this and we will be all right."

LeSean McCoy broke the Eagles rookie rushing record yesterday, a mark previously held by Correll Buckhalter. His 9 carry, 48 yard performance yesterday gave him 606 rushing yards which is the most every by an Eagles RB.

"It's obviously something big for anybody to achieve a record," McCoy said. "I have to give a lot of credit to the offensive linemen and my teammates for helping me out."

Unfortunately, if Jeremy Maclin hadn't gotten hurt he was on pace to break the Eagles rookie receiving record...

Week 15 Statistical Matchup: 49ers @ Eagles

Florida Danny — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 20:35:38 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: If you missed my Formula for Success post, you can read it here.

I have to admit. When I sat down to analyze the statistical matchups for today's game, I figured that it would be a really depressing next few hours. I totally thought that this game was going to be overrun by PHI strengths matched up against SF weaknesses. I thought the stats would tell me this game is going to be the Niners' proverbial east-coast blowout. Thankfully for my psyche, I was pleasantly surprised. It turns out that the Eagles game isn't a lost cause after all. That's not to say the matchups are in favor of the Niners. It just means that we might not have to sit through another 42-3 vomit-fest. First good sign: Mother Nature.

There's a bevy of key matchups today, so no sense in wasting any more time...

TEAM MATCHUP #1: EAGLES OFFENSIVE TREND

This one might surprise you a little bit. I know it sure surprised me. Here's a chart showing the game performances for one Eagles team unit thus far this season:

Given that the Eagles are known as a team that passes the ball a lot more than is typical for the NFL, I never thought that it would be their rush OFF that seems to dictate wins and losses. From the chart, the trend is clear. When the Eagles have an above-average Rush OFF DVOA for the game, they're 9-0; when it's below average, they're 0-4. Since I've been putting these charts together, this is the most clear-cut trend I've found for any 49er opponent. So, as this Eagles trend relates to what the 49ers need to do to win the game, one important place to start is obviously stopping LeSean McCoy and company in the running game.

What makes this matchup, shall we say, veeeeeeery interesting is that, as you all know by now, the 49ers' DEF is one of the best in the NFL. It turns out that, in several rush-related stats, this key matchup is another example of an irresistible force meeting an immovable object. Specifically, whereas the Eagles Rush OFF DVOA is ranked 7th in the league (13.1%), the 49ers' Rush DEF DVOA is ranked 5th (-15.3%). Furthermore, PHI has the #8 OL ALY in the NFL (4.25 OL ypc), but SF's defensive front 7 (DF7) also has the 8th-best ALY (3.73). And when you consider that PHI is a left-side running team (7th-highest % of RB carries to the left side), the matchup is again strength vs. strength (PHI OL LT ALY = 5.21 ypc, 4th; SF DF7 LT ALY = 3.14, 3rd). Taken together, these stats suggest that Eagles need to run the ball efficiently to win, but this plays right into the 49ers' stout run-stopping hands. Throw in the freezing temperature at game time, and we might just have a game that's a lot closer than people expect.

After the jump, more stats showing the 49ers' recipe for an unexpected stay-in-the-playoff-hunt victory against PHI...

TEAM MATCHUP #2: OFFENSIVE TRENCHES

The Eagles aren't the only ones who will have to win a battle of the trenches in order to win the game; the Niners will too. However, for SF's OFF, it'll be an uphill battle. That's because PHI's DF7 has a nearly across-the-board statistical advantage against SF's much-maligned OL. Here are the relevant stats:

Overall ALY - SF's OL is ranked #31 at 3.42 ypc; PHI's DF7 is ranked #6 at 3.58 ypc.
C/G ALY - Where the Niners like to run most frequently, SF's OL is ranked 30th at 3.44 ypc; PHI's DF7 is ranked #8 at 3.59 ypc.
Stuffed Rate - SF's OL is ranked #30, with 23.0% of their RB carries resulting in zero or negative yardage; PHI's DF7 is ranked #5 at 23.9%.
ASR - Although definitely improving, SF's OL is still ranked 25th at 8.1%; PHI's DF7 is ranked 9th at 7.2%.

So, all in all, SF's OL needs to outperform this matchup - just like they did against the Cardinals - in order for the 49ers to come out of Philly with a win. Well, more accurately, winning the game necessitates either the OL winning in the trenches or Frank Gore overcoming an OL loss in the trenches.

TEAM MATCHUP #3: 1ST DOWN OFFENSE

This matchup represents another episode of When 2nd-Down Pass Defenses Attack! Specifically, the 49ers' pass OFF has a ridiculously bad matchup in 2nd-down passing situations, so the key for SF is to perform efficiently on 1st down, and thereby avoid being prey to PHI's predator. The bone-crushing, flesh-eating details are as follows:

Overall 2nd-Down DVOA - SF's OFF is #31 at -25.5%; PHI's DEF is #1 at -30.1%.
2nd-Down Pass DVOA - SF's OFF is dead-last in the NFL at -34.3%; PHI's DEF is again #1 at -48.4%.
2nd & Long DVOA - SF's OFF is #31 at -36.0%; PHI's DEF is again #1 at -56.2%.

The picture painted by these stats is that PHI's pass DEF is the best in the league on 2nd down, and, because their opponents tend to be in passing situations on 2nd & Long, their DEF is the best in the NFL on 2nd down overall. The converse is true for the 49ers' OFF. They're often in 2nd & Long - thank you "Gore up-the-middle for no gain" - and therefore pass the ball a lot on 2nd down, with this specific inefficiency adversely affecting their overall 2nd-down performance stats. So, if the 49ers are going to win this game, a key contribution must be made by their 1st-down OFF: Don't put yourselves in 2nd & Long!

TEAM MATCHUP #4: RED ZONE OFFENSE

Think back to the Niners' last road game, which was against the Seahawks. What do you remember from the early part of that game? I seem to recall that they had an unfortunate - albeit officiating-induced - 0-point trip into SEA's red zone. Well, against PHI, this simply cannot happen if the 49ers are going to win. That's because PHI has somewhat of a counterintuitive "break but don't bend" DEF. Specifically, whereas their DEF is very stingy between the 20s, they are horrible if/when their opponent reaches the red zone.

To boot, it's not just a matter of being bad vs. the pass or the run in the red zone: SF has a favorable matchup in both. Namely, whereas the Niners' pass OFF is ranked 10th in Red Zone DVOA (34.6%), the Eagles' pass DEF is ranked 26th (35.6%). Similarly, whereas the Niners' run OFF is ranked 9th in Red Zone DVOA (23.5%), the Eagles' run DEF is ranked 23rd (7.5%). Put these together, and the 49ers' OFF has a clear strength vs. weakness matchup against the Eagles' DEF: SF's OFF is ranked 5th in Overall Red Zone DVOA (21.4%), whereas PHI's DEF is ranked 28th (21.3%). In other words, the Niners simply cannot afford to come away from their (likely rare) trips to the red zone empty-handed.

TEAM MATCHUP #5: PUNT COVERAGE

This marks the first time I've ever brought up ST in the matchup post. The reason for it finally emerging this week is pretty clear given the show DeSean Jackson put on against the New York Giants last week. Also, don't forget that Andy Lee and company are the #2 punt coverage unit in the NFL according to DVOA, having gained 13.7 total points worth of field position for the team this season. So, what we have here is the #2 punt coverage unit going against the #1 punt return unit. To ignore this as a key matchup would have been a disservice, especially given the weather conditions that are likely during the game. If this one's going to be a field position struggle, the Niners' punt coverage unit will play a non-trivial role in the outcome of that struggle.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 1: VERNON DAVIS VS. PHI PASS DEF

The past few games, the 49ers' pass OFF has revolved around Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree, i.e., they've received the bulk of the targets. Well, the Tainted Twosome is probably going to have go their separate ways today, with VD being the Simon to Crabs' Garfunkel. That's because, as if you didn't already know that Asante Samuel is pretty good, the Eagles' DEF is ranked #3 in DVOA against #1 WRs (-37.7%). So, with Crabs being quarantined, VD will have to infect PHI's defense instead. The good news here is that PHI's DEF is ranked 24th in Yards Allowed Per TE Target (7.6 Y/T). Unfortunately, PHI's DEF is also a just-below-elite 11th in DVOA vs. TE. Therefore, what this means is that, although VD's targets are unlikely to be very efficient overall, he must make a handful of them count in a big way.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 2: LEONARD WEAVER VS. SF PASS DEF

Never thought you'd be seeing this matchup described as "key," eh? Well, this is what I consider to be one of those "attention to detail" kinds of things that I talked about in my Formula for Success post this week. It's clearly not obvious that Weaver is an integral part of the Eagles' pass OFF. After all, except for when Tom Rathman was playing for the 49ers, FBs don't tend to be integral to any pass OFF! However, Weaver has shown flashes of effectiveness in recent games, and, most of all, he absolutely killed the Niners in their home game against the Seahawks last season; seemingly out of nowhere. Don't think for one second that Andy Reid ignored the film from that game when coming up with his plan for this one. And don't think Weaver sat quietly in team meetings without mentioning his exploits against the Niners last season. In other words, "The Weaver Advantage" is one detail I'm almost positive PHI has paid attention to in their preparation for today's game. I really hope the 49ers' pass DEF, with their #26 DVOA vs. RBs (23.1%), paid just as much attention. I'll be watching this one closely.

MISCELLANEOUS MATCHUPS

SF 1st-Quarter OFF (and DEF) vs. PHI 1st-Quarter DEF (and OFF)...If you read my posts regularly, you know how much I preach about playing efficiently in the 1st quarter, especially on the road. This game is definitely going to test the theory because, whereas PHI (on both sides of the ball) are ridiculously good in the 1st quarter, the 49ers (as we all know by now) are, shall we say, not good. Specifically, when the Niners have the ball in the 1st quarter against PHI, it will be a weakness vs. strength matchup between the #29 1st-quarter OFF (-32.3%) and the #3 1st-quarter DEF (-19.6%). When the Eagles have the ball in the 1st quarter against SF, it will be a strength vs. strength matchup between the #7 1st-quarter OFF (26.0%) and the #8 1st-quarter DEF (-11.7%). These stats suggest that, if this game is going to remain within reach for the Niners, it's up to their OFF to overcome a disadvantageous matchup, and it's up to their DEF to perform up to one of its strengths.

SF Shotgun OFF vs. PHI Shotgun DEF...This week, it's déjà vu all over again. Just like in the Cardinals game, the Niners' OFF faces an opposing DEF that's (a) really good at stopping shotgun and (b) faced a lot of shotgun this season. In fact, PHI's DEF is probably an even worse shotgun matchup for the Niners than ARI's DEF was. Specifically, 40.3% of PHI's defensive snaps have come against OFF's lined up in shotgun formation, and their DEF DVOA on such plays is a 5th-ranked -15.6%. Furthermore, remember that, against the Cardinals, the Niners' shotgun OFF was pedestrian at best. Therefore, I don't foresee a ton of efficiency coming out of SF when they line up in shotgun. And, given the weather, I wouldn't be shocked if they went back to their Shaun Hill days of a 70/30 under-the-center vs. shotgun split.

BOTTOM LINE

Based on the statistical matchups, here are the keys to a 49er victory on Sunday:

Remain immovable in rush DEF.
Outperform their matchup in the offensive trenches.
Be efficient in 1st-down OFF.
Maximize red zone opportunities on OFF.
Win the battle to end all battles in punt coverage.
Emphasize production over efficiency in VD targets.
Be prepared for Leonard Weaver.
Come out scoring in the 1st quarter.
Run more plays from under center, or at least outperform their matchup when they are in shotgun.

*DVOA, ALY, and ASR statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Which of the following key matchups will have THE BIGGEST IMPACT on a 49er victory against the Eagles today?

The Linc - Two Eagles remember Chris Henry

JasonB — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 20:00:19 -0000

Two Eagles knew Henry well | Philadelphia Inquirer | 12/17/2009
Cornerback Geoffrey Pope and guard Stacy Andrews were both deeply saddened today by the news that Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Chris Henry had died this morning after falling from the back of a pickup truck Wednesday that reportedly was being driven by his fiance Loleini Tonga. Pope and Andrews had both been teammates with Henry in Cincinnati. Pope, in fact, dressed in the locker next to Henry at the start of this season.

Winter wonderland for Eagles-49ers? | Philadelphia Daily News | 12/18/2009
Well, into every perfect last weekend to shop a few snowflakes must fall - or a few hundred trillion. The Philadelphia region and most of the Middle Atlantic states are on the cusp of one of the biggest pre-Christmas storms in local weather history. It could be right up there with the near-blizzard that struck a few days before the Eagles' 1960 NFL title victory over Green Bay. It could remind old-timers of the driving snowstorm Steve Van Buren mushed through in Shibe Park when the Birds beat the Chicago Cardinals for the 1948 title. The Eagles had to help the grounds crew shovel the field.

Phil Sheridan: One ex-player presses on for safer NFL helmets | Philadelphia Inquirer | 12/18/2009
As Roger Goodell fires off memos and issues edicts - and as star players like Brian Westbrook, DeSean Jackson, Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner miss games after shots to the head - thoughts turn to a couple of safeties who were in the Eagles' 1985 training camp.

Paul Domowitch: Eagles' Weaver, Avant have stake in bargaining deal | Philadelphia Daily News | 12/18/2009
This should be a great time to be Leonard Weaver and Jason Avant. Both are having breakout years. Both are in the final years of their contracts with the Eagles. Both should be red-hot commodities in the 2010 free agent market. There's only one problem. Unless the owners and players unexpectedly shake hands on a new labor deal in the next 3 1/2 months, which is about as likely as Tiger and Elin Woods renewing their wedding vows, neither Weaver nor Avant will have enough years of service to qualify as unrestricted free agents.

Who would you take from the Philadelphia Eagles? - Niners Nation
We break down some of the Eagles that we'd be interested in having on the 49ers roster.

Five questions with the San Francisco 49ers

JasonB — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 11:00:26 -0000

by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

10 days ago: San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith, left, greets Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner, right, at the end of their NFL football game in San Francisco, Monday, Dec. 14, 2009. San Francisco won the game 24-9. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

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This week the San Francisco 49ers travel across the country into the apparently soon to be frozen tundra of Lincoln Financial Field. In anticipation of that game, I traded some questions with Fooch of the great niners blog Niners Nation.

Check out over there for my answers to his questions.

Since we don't have a Cardinal on our helmet, can we expect the Niners not to be super motivated this weekend? I kid sort of... But seriously, is it me or have their two best efforts by this year been against the Cards?

I think part of the reason (a big part) for the strong performances against Arizona is the fact that they're a divisional foe. They see them twice a year, every year, and I think that makes it easier to figure them out, and not get caught off guard each year. However, they've actually put together some other impressive efforts. They gave up a lot of yards to Peyton Manning but sacked him 3 times (a season high at that point for Manning) and gave up no passing touchdowns to Manning. They put up a strong effort against Brett Favre and the Packers. The 49ers problem has been inconsistency at times. They blew a very winnable game against Seattle that would have made this game an even bigger wildcard battle. Instead, the 49ers are on the wrong side of the playoff bubble, looking to just stay alive.

More after the jump.

The 49ers haven't been a very good road team this year, with just one win and that coming against the aforementioned Cards in week one. Is that on the coaching? The youth? Bad luck? I'd imagine traveling across the country on a short week won't help.

The biggest concern I have, aside from facing DeSean Jackson, is having to deal with him and the rest of the Eagles in a 10am pacific time start. The 49ers, and other west coast teams struggle with the early starts. While the NFL has helped teams like the Patriots in packaging west coast trips into one long road trip, the 49ers, Seahawks and others, get screwed with early games and the NFL doesn't really give a crap. The 49ers road woes overall have come in games that the team could have won. The problem has been a mix of everything from coaching issues to execution, to some pretty hideous luck.

Is the QB who is going to eventually lead the 49ers back to the postseason on the roster right now?

I think so. Alex Smith will likely be the starting QB in 2010, and with the addition of some offensive line help, it might be enough to get this team back to the playoffs. Nate Davis may or may not be the long term answer for the 49ers, but for now, I think Alex Smith can help guide this team to the playoffs. Maybe he's not a franchise QB, but he's definitely a solid option. The 49ers are long shots to make the playoffs, this year, but I expect a playoff appearance next season behind Alex Smith.

What are the big holes on the roster right now?

Offensive line is far and away the biggest issue to be addressed this coming offseason. Whatever offense the team settles on, they need to improve the line to keep Alex Smith on his feet and Frank Gore finding holes. That has been the biggest issue this season.

Beyond that, the team could use some help in the secondary. Other than that, we've seen an improvement in the pass rush with the trio of Parys Haralson, Manny Lawson and Ahmad Brooks. An extra body could be helpful, but much of the defense seems to be settling in.

Give us one guy who we probably don't know but will surprise us this Sunday. Bear in mind that we know Patrick Willis & Frank Gore...

CB Shawntae Spencer isn't really a "young guy" anymore, but expect to see him covering DeSean Jackson for much of the day. Alongside him, we might see CB Tarell Brown get some coverage on Jackson. Given Jackson's performance in special teams, expect to be impressed by the leg of punter Andy Lee. He's got impressive distance and hang time. Finally, keep an eye out for nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin. He doesn't put up the crazy stats, but he is an a big-time impact player against the run.

The Linc - McNabb's pro bowl prospects

JasonB — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 20:00:21 -0000

by Matt Slocum - AP

2 months ago: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb reacts after throwing a 51-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Jeremy Maclin in the first quarter of an NFL football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

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Too bad McNabb is a longshot for Pro Bowl | Philadelphia Daily News | 12/17/2009
Donovan McNabb went to the Pro Bowl 5 years in a row, 2000-2004. The Eagles' quarterback hasn't been there since, and he almost certainly won't be among the initial invitees this season. But McNabb is compiling better numbers this year than he posted in any of those Pro Bowl seasons, except for the last one, the year he had Terrell Owens (77 catches, 1,200 yards, 14 touchdowns) and a young, healthy Brian Westbrook (73 catches, 703 yards, six TDs) to help him to the Super Bowl.

Eagles' high-powered offense draws comparisons to '04 Super Bowl team - pressofAtlanticCity.com : Sports
The Eagles enter Sunday's game against San Francisco averaging 28.6 points per game. That ranks third in the NFL behind New Orleans (35.4) and Minnesota (29.9). At their current pace, they would break the franchise record of 26 points per game set last season.

Ex-Cal star DeSean Jackson Mr. Big Play for Philadelphia Eagles - San Jose Mercury News
For all DeSean Jackson's amazing feats this season, none is more improbable than getting Andy Reid off the ground.

Eagles give cash to foundation named for Vineland boy | thedailyjournal.com | The Daily Journal
The Kevin J. Snyder Memorial Foundation has another $11,000 to give away, thanks to the Philadelphia Eagles and a pharmaceutical company.

Clark's tirade targets local media, fans | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Steelers safety Ryan Clark says the Eagles have it easy compared to what the Steelers deal with from their local media.

SB Nation - DeSean Jackson

Potent Quotables - Dawkins Talks Philly Return

HEAD COACH JOSH McDANIELS

QB KYLE ORTON

S BRIAN DAWKINS

The Linc - Reno Mahe, Leonard Weaver, Donovan McNabb, & Brian Dawkins

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 15

The Big Picture & 3rd Downs

3rd Downs - Hooked On a Feeling

Stuck in the Middle With You on 3rd-and-Short

The Offensive Line - Hold It...A Little Big Longer

Team Rankings:

Week 15 - The Games

The Summaries

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

Week 15 - Big Picture

Top 5 in Week 15:

Running Totals, Season (through 15 weeks):

15-week League Averages:

15-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.71 15-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:10 (thanks to OT games) 15-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.79% 15-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.91-yard line

The Look Ahead

Horse Tracks 12/23/09 - No kidding - root for the Chargers, Patriots, Colts this week, hard as it may be

Giants at Redskins: 'Kudos & Wet Willies' preview

There will be lots of 'Kudos' Tuesday if ...

There will be lots of 'Wet Willies' Tuesday if ...

Young Eagles hit milestones

Week 15 Statistical Matchup: 49ers @ Eagles

Which of the following key matchups will have THE BIGGEST IMPACT on a 49er victory against the Eagles today?

The Linc - Two Eagles remember Chris Henry

Five questions with the San Francisco 49ers

The Linc - McNabb's pro bowl prospects

15-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.71

15-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:10 (thanks to OT games)

15-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.79%

15-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.91-yard line