SB Nation - Matt Ryan

Falcons And Jets Recap: On The Way To 9-7

Dave the Falconer — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 13:00:42 -0000

by Kathy Willens - AP

Ah, victory. How I missed you. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

I've been accused of being a bit too verbose in these kinds of posts, so let me break this down in the easiest way possible.

Winning is fun.

Yes, it was fun to be an Atlanta Falcons fan again yesterday, fun for the first time in nearly a month. It's not that there weren't exciting moments and little triumphs, but ultimately what you plunk down your soul for when you select a sports franchise is winning. There's a lot of extra baggage that comes with that, but nothing feels quite so sweet as the win. So even though it was a game the Falcons repeatedly tried to give away with an inept offensive display for three quarters, it was a win. Praise the football gods!

The defensively-minded Buffalo Bills and the unpredictable Tampa Bay Bucs are now all that lie between us and that winning season we've all been hoping for, and I think we can do it. My sunny disposition has been restored and I now believe many things, including the fact that we will defy mathematics to make the playoffs. Eliminated, you say? That's just another word for quitting.

But I've gotten long-winded again. Please, by all means, check out the meat of the recap after the jump.

HIGHLIGHTS

Matt Ryan was far from great on Sunday, but he came back still hurting against the league's best defense and tossed a touchdown pass when it mattered. He will have to get better in a hurry if we're going to finish the season on a high note, but at least this was a step in the right direction.
Considering the absurdly bad runs being called for him, I thought Jason Snelling was once again solid. The Jets were putting up a brick wall and Mike Mularkey was asking him to run right into it, so considering that his 3.5ish run per carry average isn't half bad. It would be really nice to have Michael Turner back on the field for more than one play, though.
On a day when the passing game was basically shut down, Tony Gonzalez still got his touchdown and sealed the victory for the Falcons. He can't got unmentioned, because it takes two for the touchdown tango, so to speak. Roddy White's four catches for 33 yards actually isn't completely horrible when you consider that Darrelle Revis was matched up against him. That's no easy task.
The much-maligned offensive line quietly kept Matt Ryan on his feet for the entire game. The Jets have a decent pass rush and Ryan wasn't operating at full strength, so this is an impressive sign for them. It's kind of an indictment of the offense that there wasn't any sacks and nothing happened for most of the game, but hey. We still won, right?
Brent Grimes was just plain awesome Sunday. Both of his picks came at critical times and showed off his athleticism. There's legitimate ability there, regardless of any size concerns, and my hunch is that Grimes will be either in the starting lineup or in a nickel role going into 2010.
Thomas DeCoud gets honorable mention for his ball-hawking ways. There's growth to be done here—he still isn't the most able tackler—but safeties who can grab a few interceptions are welcome in the Falcons' backfield any time.
John Abraham and Thomas Johnson both got sacks, and both probably needed them after muddling through recent weeks without sniffing one. Well done, boyos. Hell, kudos to the entire defense today.
Michael Koenen continues to punt his way into our hearts, averaging 39.9 yards on eight punts and one swoon per booming kick.

LOWLIGHTS

I'm going to beat this drum until someone else beats Mike Mularkey over the head with this simple fact: Our offensive playcalling is not putting us in a position to win. Going against the league's best defense, you have to do something more creative than repeatedly running up the gut and depending on your receivers to break free of coverage. Mularkey has that reputation as a creative dude, but it's more for the occasional gadget play that works insanely well than sustained cleverness. It may just be the way the entire team is going, but he's gotta be sweating a little with the way this supposedly elite offense has been performing, injuries or no.
Speaking of injuries, why even trot Michael Turner out there? To confuse the Jets? Considering he only had one carry—at least it was seven yards—I can't imagine that actually worked all that well. Rex Ryan isn't manning the helm of one of the league's best defenses because he gets flustered by a guy making a guest appearance. Let the dude heal or declare him ready and give him a decent workload.
Admittedly it was a 48 yard field goal, but seeing Matt Bryant miss a field goal gave me unfortunate flashbacks.

THE WRAPUP

Game MVP: It's gotta be Grimes. You don't grab two interceptions and alter the course of a 10-7 game and get anything less than an MVP. Congratulations, Grimey!

Game Theme Song: Please don't listen to all seven minutes of this.

One Thing To Take Away: It's not the playoffs, but sweet redemption is still at hand.

Next Week: The Buffalo Bills can be found at Buffalo Rumblings . Despite the name, it's actually an excellent Bills blog and not something that happens when you have way too many wings.

Final Word: Win.

Post-Game Thread: Defense Holds, Falcons Edge Jets 10-7

Dave the Falconer — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 22:04:43 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

YOU CALL THIS OFFENSE?! (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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The Falcons have elevated winning ugly to an art form.

It doesn't get much uglier than a game where your highly touted offense is outdone throughout by your supposedly lackluster defense, who deserve better than 75% of the credit for this game. Holding the Jets to 7 points is an impressive accomplishment, and pulling out the win despite their excellent defense is nothing to sneeze at. Now the Falcons are at 7-7 and have only the lowly Bucs and Bills left on their schedule, so that winning season is still a very tantalizing possibility.

Please consider this your open thread to talk about the game and anything else you'd like to as the holidays approach. A few notes from my end:

Brent Grimes gets a lot of up-and-down reviews, but that man knows how to pick a pass. Two today against Mark Sanchez. With Josh Freeman and Ryan Fitzpatrick up next, he could add to his season total of four pretty easily.
John Abraham returned to the magical land of sacking the quarterback. What a delight.
The team made a big show of Michael Turner being active, and then he only got one carry. Matt Ryan at least played the entire game, even if it wasn't his finest hour.That strike to Gonzo saved our butts, though.

New York Jets Run Defense vs. Atlanta Falcons Run Offense

John B — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 13:32:37 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Will he play or won't he?

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Whether Michael Turner plays will make a big difference in this game. I would argue his status is even more important than that of Matt Ryan. Even if Ryan does play, he's in for a tall order coming back against this defense. It's a little easier to return at the running back position. Turner is a complete runner. He has power and explosion. Think of what we hope Shonn Greene will turn into. That's what Turner is. He's running for almost 5 yards per carry.

Behind him, things get dicier. Jerious Norwood is a talented young back. He is also explosive like Turner, but he's not as consistent. There are some big gains and some minimal gains. His first three years were great, but he's averaging less than 3.5 yards per carry this year. Behind him is Jason Snelling, a big bruiser who is mainly a power runner.

Again, because of how banged up Atlanta's offensive line is, the Jets seem to be in good shape. Given the unclear quarterback situation, the Falcons are going to try and grind things out on the ground. The Jets will probably load up the box. If Turner is out, they could have a tough time getting it done on the ground.

New York Jets Pass Defense vs. Atlanta Falcons Pass Offense

John B — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 13:14:54 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Chris Redman could be pressed into action for the Falcons once again.

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This is a tough spot for the Falcons. They might have their backup quarterback start against the league's top rated pass defense. They might have a starter who has missed two games and was limited in practice this week trying to shake off the rust against the league's top rated pass defense. Either way, the Jets have to like this matchup. Matt Ryan is certainly more of a playmaker, but he's turned it over 14 times in 11 starts. That's not a good sign against an opportunistic defense.

Roddy White leads the Falcons with 915 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. He'll draw Darrelle Revis, who will probably hold him well short of his averages. Tony Gonzalez leads the Falcons with 75 receptions, emerging as a security blanket for Ryan and Chris Redman. With Revis on White and Lito Sheppard having an edge against Michael Jenkins, the Jets will be able to mix up their looks on Gonzalez a lot. The Falcons don't have many weapons in the passing game beyond those three. Their fourth leading receiver averages under 2 catches per game.

I do not think the Falcons will focus on the pass. There are too many issues at the quarterback position, and this defense is too good. Also adding to the trouble is the offensive line. Left tackle Sam Baker was limited this week by an elbow injury. Center Todd McClure was battling a knee injury. Both are probably going to play, but they will be likely less than 100%. Right guard Harvey Dahl missed last week's game with an ankle injury. You can be sure with all of this news, the Jets won't hesistate to attack Atlanta.

Singletary’s Formula for Success through 13 Games

Florida Danny — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 23:36:36 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: If you're interested, here is my statistical matchup review of the Cardinals game.

Welcome back for this week's look at how the 49ers are doing according to Mike Singletary's Formula for Success. For those that don't remember Singletary's Formula for Success, here it is:

Total Ball Security
Execute
Dominate the Trenches
Create Good Field Position
Finish

After going through the stats, I'm of the opinion that Monday night's impressive victory provides Mike Singletary with a real opportunity to show just how great of a head coach he really is. The reason I say this is because, although the 49ers were clearly the better team on the field against the Cardinals, the Formula for Success stats show that they weren't the best team they could be.

In sport (and educational) psychology, there's a concept called goal orientation, which has two components: task orientation and ego orientation. When a player/team (or student) is high in task orientation, their primary goal is to be the best they can be; they tend to evaluate themselves in relation to their own past performances. When a player/team (or student) is ego oriented, their primary goal is to be better than other players/teams; they tend to evaluate themselves in relation to other players/teams. Although a healthy dose of ego orientation is helpful in ultra-competitive domains (e.g., professional sports), research tends to suggest that having a high task orientation is more predictive of success in the long run.

When you think about the greatest players/teams in various sports, high task orientation is a common thread. Listen closely to interviews with Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, and Tiger Woods - of course, he may not be doing many interviews in the foreseeable future - and what you'll hear are statements like, "I didn't bring my A game today," "I left a lot of points out there on the court," etc. These are code phrases for, "I'm high in task orientation." Each - though obviously competitive - primarily evaluates themselves in relation to their own past performances, and is constantly obsessed with personal improvement.

One team example that hits very close to home is the great 49er squad of the 1980s, whose coach, Bill Walsh, was the poster boy for task orientation. Indeed, another code phrase for high task orientation is "attention to detail," and Walsh paid more attention to detail than probably any head coach before him or since. The next time they're on, watch the coaching videos of Walsh shown during the America's Game series on NFL Network, and notice how much of what he said (and did) focused on the team improving their performance from the previous play in practice, the previous game, etc. Sprinkled among his boxing analogies and "we're better than this piece-of-crap opponent" rhetoric was a constant pursuit of perfection. As I've said before, his genius was as much about having an innate (i.e., not book-learned) mastery of performance psychology as it was about having a mastery of Xs and Os.

Bringing things full circle, I raise this issue because recent Niner teams have repeatedly displayed a sense of "we've arrived" after performances like the one we saw Monday night. It's appeared that, rather than being motivated to improve on good performances, they've been satisfied with knowing they were better than their opponent. As I said, the former is better in the long run. So that's why I say this is a watershed moment - at least to me - in Singletary's tenure as head coach. Can he use his obvious skills as a motivator to have his team improve in areas where they're still mediocre-at-best or will the Niners - as has been the case for the past couple of years - once again be content with being better than their last opponent rather than on improving upon their performance in that win?

This is the topic I'll focus on in today's Formula for Success post: showing you that, despite their domination of ARI, the Niners still have a lot of room for improvement. It's up to Singletary and his team to finish the story.

After the jump, I make the seamless transition from psychology to statistics...

ADJUSTED BS RATES

Before getting to the 49ers' specific Formula for Success stats, let me first present this week's BS Rates for each NFL team. It's become a popular feature, so I'd be remiss to omit it.

Below you'll find Adjusted Ball Security (BS) Rates, Unadjusted BS Rates, Fumble Rates (FR), Interception Rates (IR), and Adjusted IRs for each NFL team through 13 games (Niner stats and top 8 for each category in bold; bottom 8 for each category in italics):

	Team	Adj BS Rate	Last Wk	W-L	BS Rate	Rk	FR	Rk	IR	Rk	Adj IR	Rk
1	MIN	98.73%	1	11-2	98.73%	1	1.24%	2	1.34%	1	1.33%	1
2	NE	98.48%	2	8-5	98.27%	5	1.50%	4	2.18%	8	1.58%	3
3	SD	98.28%	4	10-3	98.44%	2	1.49%	3	1.72%	5	2.20%	7
4	IND	98.26%	5	13-0	98.30%	3	0.99%	1	2.98%	20	3.10%	19
5	ATL	98.08%	6	6-7	97.84%	11	1.62%	6	3.22%	23	2.51%	10
6	DEN	98.07%	9	8-5	98.30%	4	1.52%	5	2.11%	7	2.82%	15
7	DAL	97.98%	8	8-5	97.99%	9	2.22%	19	1.58%	4	1.62%	5
8	NO	97.94%	10	13-0	97.84%	12	2.09%	16	2.31%	10	2.00%	6
9	JAC	97.90%	14	7-6	97.89%	10	2.41%	22	1.45%	2	1.40%	2
10	PHI	97.89%	7	9-4	98.07%	7	1.78%	9	2.24%	9	2.77%	14
11	BAL	97.89%	12	7-6	98.01%	8	1.73%	7	2.54%	12	2.91%	17
12	MIA	97.87%	3	7-6	97.49%	18	2.34%	21	2.90%	19	1.62%	4
13	HOU	97.85%	13	6-7	97.79%	14	1.76%	8	3.11%	22	2.91%	18
14	GB	97.84%	11	9-4	98.08%	6	2.08%	15	1.57%	3	2.32%	8
15	PIT	97.63%	20	6-7	97.84%	13	1.86%	10	2.80%	16	3.48%	24
16	CIN	97.60%	16	9-4	97.77%	15	2.11%	17	2.54%	13	3.12%	20
17	SF	97.58%	18	6-7	97.68%	16	2.20%	18	2.55%	14	2.85%	16
18	CLE	97.52%	19	2-11	97.41%	20	2.05%	13	3.78%	26	3.41%	23
19	NYG	97.49%	17	7-6	97.49%	17	2.51%	26	2.49%	11	2.50%	9
20	TEN	97.48%	22	6-7	97.42%	19	2.51%	25	2.75%	15	2.55%	11
21	STL	97.41%	15	1-12	97.40%	21	2.05%	12	3.74%	25	3.70%	25
22	WAS	97.26%	24	4-9	97.23%	23	2.73%	28	2.86%	18	2.76%	13
23	BUF	97.19%	23	5-8	97.10%	24	2.24%	20	4.44%	27	4.13%	27
24	CAR	97.11%	29	5-8	97.01%	27	2.08%	14	5.14%	29	4.82%	30
25	SEA	97.03%	25	5-8	97.24%	22	3.14%	32	2.02%	6	2.64%	12
26	NYJ	97.03%	28	7-6	96.74%	31	2.47%	24	5.52%	32	4.40%	29
27	KC	97.02%	26	3-10	97.09%	25	2.88%	29	3.00%	21	3.19%	21
28	ARI	96.93%	21	8-5	97.05%	26	2.99%	30	2.86%	17	3.22%	22
29	DET	96.92%	27	2-11	96.97%	28	1.86%	11	5.34%	30	5.49%	32
30	TB	96.82%	30	1-12	96.44%	32	2.60%	27	5.50%	31	4.35%	28
31	OAK	96.69%	31	4-9	96.82%	29	3.05%	31	3.49%	24	3.90%	26
32	CHI	96.59%	32	5-8	96.74%	30	2.47%	23	4.78%	28	5.23%	31

If you don't know what each of these stats mean, see my detailed explanation here.

This week, the top 2 teams remain the same (Vikings & Patriots), but there was quite a bit of upheaval for the rest of the Elite 8. The most notable change from last week was exhibited by the Dolphins, who dropped from #3 to #9 primarily by virtue of going from 14th to 21st in FR. Specifically, 4 fumbles in 78 fumbling opportunities against the Jaguars increased their FR from 1.99% to 2.34%. They also dropped from 1st to 4th in Adjusted IR, but that was primarily due to the strength of schedule (SOS) adjustment being weaker for all teams this week.

Other things worth mentioning are as follows:

Through 13 games, the top 8 teams in Adjusted BS rate have a combined record of 77-27, while the bottom 8 have a combined record of 35-69. Once again, that's pretty clear evidence supporting the utility of using Total Ball Security as an indicator of success.
The Falcons, Jets, and Cardinals all seem to have Adjusted BS rates that disagree with their records. In the offseason, I'm going to look at how teams who display this kind of discrepancy have tended to perform the following season. It could be that, like football's Pythagorean Theorem, teams that win more games than their Adjusted BS rate would predict tend to lose more games the following season, and vice versa.
Speaking of ATL, it's pretty obvious their season has collapsed because of problems at the QB position. An injury to Matt Ryan and an IR SOS that's 4th-toughest in the NFL have conspired to destroy their once-promising season.
And speaking of ARI, it's interesting that they're in 1st place in the NFC West despite being the worst team in the division when it comes to Adjusted BS Rate.
Another NFC West team, the Seahawks, also exhibits a peculiar ball security situation given that they're in the top quartile of the league when it comes to IR, but are ranked dead last in FR. In other words, their QBs are really good at avoiding interceptions, but their ball carriers have a serious case of butterfingers.
GB has the 3rd-lowest IR in the NFL, but it's been a byproduct of facing the easiest IR schedule in the league.
FR seems to set the top of the Adjusted BS Rate rankings (i.e., the top 6 are the same teams as those in the top 6 of Adjusted BS rate), but doesn't seem to set the bottom of the rankings. To me, this suggests that avoiding fumbles - not necessarily INTs - is one important thing that separates really good teams from everyone else.

THE REST OF THE 49ERS' FORMULA STATS

The following table displays the Niners' stats this week according to Singletary's Formula for Success, what those stats were last week, and what the extent of change was between this week's stats and last week's stats (top-8 in bold; bottom-8 in italics):

		This Week		Last Week		Change
Formula Ingredient	Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
Total Ball Security	Adj BS Rate	97.58%	17	97.55%	18	+0.03%	+1
Total Ball Security	BS Rate	97.68%	16	97.70%	17	-0.02%	+1
Total Ball Security	FR	2.20%	18	2.32%	22	+0.12%	+4
Total Ball Security	IR	2.55%	14	2.27%	10	-0.28%	-4
Total Ball Security	Adj IR	2.85%	16	2.71%	11	-0.14%	-5
Execute	Total	4.9%	18	0.6%	17	+4.3%	-1
Execute	OFF	-7.0%	22	-7.1%	21	+0.1%	-1
Execute	DEF	-11.8%	4	-7.2%	5	+4.6%	+1
Execute	ST	0.1%	20	0.5%	16	-0.4%	-4
Execute	1Q OFF	-32.3%	29	-31.9%	30	+0.4%	+1
Execute	1Q DEF	-11.7%	8	-6.8%	11	+4.9%	+3
Dominate the Trenches	OL ALY	3.42	31	3.23	32	+0.19	+1
Dominate the Trenches	OL ASR	8.1%	25	8.6%	27	+0.5%	+2
Dominate the Trenches	DF7 ALY	3.73	8	3.65	8	-0.08	0
Dominate the Trenches	DF7 ASR	7.6%	5	7.1%	7	+0.5%	+2
Create Great Field Position	FG/XP Pts	1.1	15	1.7	14	-0.6	-1
Create Great Field Position	KO Pts	4.1	13	3.9	12	+0.2	-1
Create Great Field Position	KR Pts	-3.0	16	-1.9	17	-1.1	+1
Create Great Field Position	P Pts	13.7	2	12.0	2	+1.7	0
Create Great Field Position	PR Pts	-15.5	32	-13.5	32	-2.0	0
Create Great Field Position	Own 1-20 OFF	-31.5%	30	-32.2%	30	+0.7%	0
Create Great Field Position	Opp 1-20 DEF	8.1%	19	19.5%	24	+11.4%	+5
Finish	4Q OFF	9.5%	13	6.4%	16	+3.1%	+3
Finish	4Q DEF	-1.0%	14	4.5%	15	+5.5%	+1
Finish	Late/Close OFF	-21.5%	27	-24.8%	28	+3.3%	+1
Finish	Late/Close DEF	-11.9%	7	-11.0%	7	+0.9%	0

Here's where we get to the task orientation part of the post...

As you can see from the week-to-week changes, the Niners did a lot of Formula-related things really well against ARI. Their DEF was awesome when the Cardinals were pinned inside their own 20. They only had 1 fumble in 85 fumbling opportunities, for a game FR of 1.18%, or about half of what it was going into Monday night. In addition, they certainly did finish well against the Cardinals.

Nevertheless, given that only 6 of the 26 rankings in the table above are in the top 8 of the NFL, there's clearly a lot of room for improvement. The first place to start would be the 6 areas in which they rank in the bottom 8 of the league: 1st-quarter offense, run-blocking, pass-blocking, punt returns, OFF inside their own 20 yard line, and OFF late in close games. What will tell me a lot about the improvement of this team, along with Singletary's skills as a head coach, is if they don't have epic fails in any of these 6 areas against the Eagles tomorrow afternoon.

Also, given that Alex Smith through 2 INTs against the Cardinals, which made SF plummet in the IR and Adjusted IR rankings, it's clear that this is an area that needs improvement as well. If the Niners are going to show me that they've broken out of their "we've arrived" mentality after big wins, they can't go into Philadelphia, and "throw" the game away - both literally and figuratively.

So, again, my main point here is that, although it was definitely encouraging to see the 49ers dominate the 1st-place team in their division, the most important thing for them going forward is to not think that they've "arrived." They have to realize that, despite playing so well in one game, their body of work suggests they have 20 Formula-related areas in which improvement is necessary; in 6 of these 20, it's really necessary. Essentially, the 49ers may have played like an elite NFL team this past week, but they're not yet an elite team every week, and they're by no means an elite team this season.

In other words, a healthy dose of task orientation - from their motivational-speaker head coach, no less - is definitely in order if the 49ers want to become a legitimately elite NFL team.

BOTTOM LINE

Based on Mike Singletary's Formula for Success:

Total Ball Security - Please stop alternating games between fumbling and throwing interceptions.
Execute - The DEF is definitely light years ahead of the OFF and ST.
Dominate in the Trenches - They're continuing to improve on both sides of the ball.
Create Great Field Position - The punt return unit continues to hold them back.
Finish - They're still average, but are improving across the board.

Coming up tomorrow morning, the statistical preview for tomorrow's matchup against PHI.

*DVOA, ALY, and ASR statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

All We Want for Christmas Is...

ericj69 — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 17:58:40 -0000

She's been very naughty, but the Vikings have been nothing but nice this year.

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Dear Santa,

Sunday is Minnesota's last game before Christmas. Unfortunately, I don't have much time to write you this year; I have my holiday party for work tonight and a family Christmas tomorrow. I would have written to you last night, but I was too busy watching my fantasy playoff dreams getting crushed by Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark. So rather than give you a full analysis of the upcoming Vikings/Panthers game (I know you're an avid reader of the Daily Norseman now that the North Pole has Wi-Fi), I'll give you my wish list for the game and the rest of the Vikings' season:

I really wish that you could send some good medicine to Percy Harvin for those migraines he's been having. He really wants that Rookie of the Year trophy as a belated Christmas present, and he deserves it. It'd be a shame for him to miss out on his gift just because he missed games at the end of the year. And of course we need him down the stretch and in the playoffs!
I wish that Matt Moore plays just like Jake Delhomme and sends lots of gifts to our secondary on Sunday night.
I wish that the Vikings will capture the #1 spot in rushing defense yet again. It's becoming a holiday tradition! And if we can stop DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, it will go a long way towards getting the top rushing defense and winning the game on Sunday.
I wish that we don't have a game like the last time we were in Carolina in 2005. You remember that game, don't you Santa? Steve Smith went wild on us, Daunte Culpepper played his last game as a Viking thanks to blowing out approximately 17 ligaments in his knee, and Minnesota lost 38-13. Can we make some positive memories this time around?
I wish that I could see some good ol' fashioned calf roping on Sunday from Jared Allen. He's been a little quiet lately, and I'd like to see him make a late-season push for Defensive MVP. (Otherwise, Charles Woodson is probably going to win, and you know we don't want that to happen.) I just hope that Allen can outperform Julius Peppers and establish his dominance again.
I wish for a healthy Brett Favre down the stretch and throughout the playoffs. I know, I know--I spent 16 years wishing for the exact opposite thing to happen. You got me there. But you never came through on any of those wishes, so maybe this year you could take my wish into account. Just this once? I vividly remember watching Tarvaris Jackson in the Metrodome during the playoff game against the Eagles last year. There's a very real possibility of that matchup happening again this season, and I'd much prefer to have #4 behind center.
I wish that Chris Gamble will learn from covering Randy Moss and take most of the plays off this week. He should just let Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian roam free all day. Could you teach Chris that giving space is better than receiving any interceptions?

(More wishes and my Week 15 picks after the jump)

I wish I didn't have to think about the threat of a nude Pat Williams if we win the Super Bowl this year. Did he really say he'll "retire if the Vikings win the Super Bowl this season and will walk off the field wearing nothing but tights and socks"? Don't get me wrong, if seeing too much of Phat Pat ensures us victory I'm OK with it...but yeesh.
Speaking of the Super Bowl, I wish that this team wasn't compared to the 1998 Vikings so much. I see the similarities, but I still remember the t-shirt I had when I was a senior in high school. It read "All I Want For Christmas Is A Super Bowl". It pictured Randall Cunningham as you with our offensive line as the reindeer. Obviously that kind of blasphemy upset you. So I don't even want you to think that the two versions of the Vikings are the same, OK?
I wish that the Vikings will cruise to an easy win on Sunday to secure the 2009 NFC North title and all but lock up a first-round bye for the playoffs.

Thanks Santa! Merry Christmas everyone!

Prediction: Vikings 34, Panthers 13

Oh and one last thing: I wish that all of my Week 15 NFL picks will be right (home team in CAPS):

SAINTS over Cowboys: I wish the Saints would just go ahead and lose a couple games to give us a shot at the #1 seed. But the Cowboys winning in December is going to take much more than a Christmas miracle.

RAVENS over Bears: I wish that Jay Cutler will keep playing like this for years and years to come in Chicago. I never thought Favre's interception record would ever be in jeopardy, but maybe I was wrong...

Patriots over BILLS: I wish that I could turn on ESPN or sports radio and not have to listen to "what's wrong with the Patriots." It's a little drastic for a division-leading 8-5 team.

Cardinals over LIONS: I wish Arizona played like they did in San Francisco when we played them a couple weeks ago. I'd also wish that the Lions weren't such a train wreck, but I enjoy the two victories over Detroit each year.

CHIEFS over Browns: I wish that this game never even existed.

JETS over Falcons: I wish I knew for sure whether Matt Ryan and Michael Turner were playing at 100% this week, because that may sway my pick here.

EAGLES over 49ers: I wish there wasn't a real possibility of Eagles fans flooding Minneapolis for the third straight season. Hearing that "E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!" chant makes me want to repeatedly headbutt a pile of railroad ties.

Texans over RAMS: I wish the Texans wouldn't beat up on awful teams at the end of each season to finish 8-8 and be everyone's "sleeper team" the following year. I also wish Steven Jackson didn't have to waste the prime of an incredible career on a string of the aforementioned awful teams.

TITANS over Dolphins: I wish that both of these teams could make the playoffs, because they're a lot more fun to watch than the other AFC Wild Card options.

BRONCOS over Raiders: I wish the Broncos would win this game, because this is my Eliminator pick and I'm 14-0 so far this year. I also wish I could stop laughing at JaMarcus Russell because he can't even get the start over Charlie Frye this week.

CHARGERS over Bengals: I wish that Chris Henry was still with us, because the Bengals have already had enough to deal with this year after Mike Zimmer's wife passed away. I also wish that if I get one pick wrong this week it's this one. Cincinnati deserves some good news.

SEAHAWKS over Buccaneers: I wish this game took place two years ago when both teams were actually decent.

Packers over STEELERS: I wish the defending champions hadn't completely folded down the stretch so they would actually beat the Packers here.

Giants over REDSKINS: I wish the Giants would just make up their mind about whether they're actually good or not. I never know how to pick their games.

Last week: 11-5

Season so far: 144-65 (including correctly picking Indianapolis last night)

Jets Flight Connections 121809

dvdvil — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 16:09:46 -0000

Many thanks to the Indianapolis Colts. You guys deserve to rest.

HC Rex Ryan won't say who will start at QB on Sunday, even though we all know it will be Mark Sanchez.

WR Braylon Edwards talks about former division rival Chris Henry's death.

So does outspoken K Jay Feely.

The New York Post writes about what should be Braylon's private business.

Rex talks about CB Darrelle Revis deserving to be Defensive Player of the Year.

Read the comments on this article: some people actually think Revis gets help from the blitzes, and not the other way around.

DC Mike Pettine shares his thoughts on how the defense lures QBs towards Revis Island.

Don't forget that Lito Sheppard is a good corner, too.

And LB David "Hitman" Harris deserves to go to the Pro Bowl.

Jets Owner Woody Johnson is asking for a one-time event in 2014, a Super Bowl in the cold.

Rex and Falcons HC Mike Smith usually give each other tips on opposing teams (but probably not this week).

More connections after the jump.

The Jets defense won't be complaining if Falcons QB Matt Ryan doesn't play.

The Jets haven't done much talking lately, but letting their play speak for itself.

JetNation.com previews the game against the Falcons.

ESPN.com has AccuScore's take on the Jets' chances of winning.

Kevin Kernan compares and contrasts the two New York football head coaches.

Sanchez talks about USC teammate RB Chauncey Washington.

Former Atlanta RB Warrick Dunn will own part of the Falcons.

LB Larry to the Izzo may still play football in the future.

Don't forget to donate your old coats if you're going to the game on Sunday.

And don't forget to vote for Revis (up to #3 last time I checked), RB Thomas Jones, Hitman Harris and other deserving Jets for Pro Bowl recognition. Vote as many times as you want here until Dec. 21.

Lastly, here is video of The Sanchize practicing with the team earlier this week:

Ryan Skips Practice

John B — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:30:28 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

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While Mark Sanchez hit the practice field yesterday, Matt Ryan sat out for Atlanta.

Atlanta Falcons coach Mike Smith just announced on a conference call with Jets beat reporters that quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Michael Turner will not practice today. Their status is day-to-day.
Ryan has missed the past two games -- both Falcons losses -- with a turf toe injury on his right foot suffered in Week 12 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

This certainly makes it less likely Ryan sees action Sunday. Remember, he's rusty. He needs to get on the field to get his timing back. If he still can't practice, it could be a sign we're going to see Chris Redman.

A Very Falcoholic Discussion: Watching Out For Jets CB Darrelle Revis

Dave the Falconer — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:00:37 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

This isn't something Falcons fans will want to see on Sunday. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

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Darrelle Revis is a beast.

Arguably one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Revis will be a major obstacle to overcome on Sunday. As good as Roddy White is, I'm not extremely confident that he'll be able to get separation from Revis, and the Jets already have a swarming defense that is going to put Chris Redman or (maybe) Matt Ryan on their heels. They're also one of the more capable teams in the league when it comes to covering tight ends. Unless Michael Turner is making his triumphant return this week (again, maybe), the Falcons are going to have to go through the air often. It just may not work.

So the question I pose to you, dear readers, is how we can effectively get around Revis and that tough Jets D this weekend. What will it take for the Falcons to have an effective game through the air? Should they forget about it and just turn to Snelling and Norwood early? What, why, where, how?

Go!

Saturday News And Notes: The Saints Come Marching In

Dave the Falconer — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 13:00:18 -0000

More photos » AP

This is, in some ways, the face of the Atlanta Falcons this season. (AP Photo/Gwinnett County Police Dept.)

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It's a bruised, battered and desperate Falcons squad limping into the Georgia Dome this Sunday, which makes them equal parts dangerous against the Saints and in enormous trouble. When it rains, it pours, and right now the Falcons are getting plunked with meteorites. Insert your cliche here.

With that in mind, let's jump into some of the biggest stories leading into this game. Lord knows there's enough of them this time around.

The biggest news right now is obviously Jonathan Babineaux's recent arrest, which officially tipped the balance of the Falcons' season from depressing to absurd. We are all inside a William Faulkner novel right now, full of typing and emoticons, but signifying nothing. Which really kind of sucks, if you think about it.

But back on point. Babineaux is going to play this Sunday, so the Falcons at least have a chance to contain the Saints up front. That's the good news. The bad news is that this was a really, really stupid incident, one that Arthur Blank isn't going to approve of, and the league could take action to suspend him in the future. That's definitely going to hurt the team, and the pattern of behavior could lead the team to seek alternatives to Babineaux at DT. Obviously, I'd prefer this was the last we ever heard of any legal issues and he could continue to provide great value at the position, but at this point we're in a bad spot.
The Falcons are about as clear about injuries as the Horsehead Nebula, so it's little surprise that they've once again listed most of their roster as questionable. Matt Ryan shouldn't play and probably isn't going to, and the same for Michael Turner, but they're both listed with a Q next to their names. Even though the team desperately needs both back, it's not worth aggravating existing injuries in a game that promises to be difficult no matter what happens. Apparently, that rumor about Ryan's status depending on who is available to play the offensive line is false.
The rumor flying around is that Brent Grimes and Chris Owens are going to be our two top cornerbacks on Sunday. Based on talent, I'm not opposed to this, but even Grimes and his considerable athletic talent probably aren't going to be enough to keep up with Marques Colston, who is an absolutely filthy receiver. I pray for us all.
When Mike Smith says, "we're all ornery," you have to expect a much better all-around effort against the Saints this week. The Falcons are as angry as we all are about the way the season's turned out, this game could make or break the season and fans should show up in droves to support the team. I still think the Falcons have a good shot to win this one, even though talent-wise we're pretty well boned.
Drew Brees is among those that want the Saints to chase history. Even though the team has the division sewn up, they're going to be playing to destroy us this weekend. That's...that's not good.
Our best shot against the Saints would be to eviscerate their defense, and thankfully they'll be missing top LB Scott Fujita and CB Jabari Greer, while CB Tracy Porter is doubtful. That can only help.