SB Nation - Josh Johnson

Preview: Green Bay Packers at Buccaneers

Brandon — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 13:15:19 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

2 months ago: Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Tanard Jackson (36) gets a pat on the back from teammate Sabby Piscitelli (21) after returning an interception for a touchdown during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers in Tampa, Fla., Sunday, Oct. 18, 2009. The Panthers won 28-21. (AP Photo/Reinhold Matay)

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The first thing that jumps out is zero, which is the number of 2009 wins by the last remaining winless team this season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They looked very good in week 4 last season when they beat the Packers 30-21, but that seems like a long time ago. Since then they've fired their Super Bowl winning head coach, their long time defensive coordinator left for the University of Tennessee, and they've released or traded several defensive starters, including Pro Bowl LB Derrick Brooks. After an ugly loss to the Patriots in London, the Bucs are coming off the bye-week and giving their rookie 1st round QB Josh Freeman his first NFL start. As long as I'm dumping on the Bucs, I might as well mentioned how they shot themselves in the foot by firing Ron Wolf back in 1978.

Sometimes a record doesn't tell the whole story. But in this case it does; the Bucs are as bad as they look.

Instead of using the official NFL stats this week, I'm going with Football Outsiders. The problem with the official stats, which are based on yards/game, is that they don't take into account that their opponents have only attempted 180 passes against the Bucs, which is the lowest total in the NFL. I don't know why teams aren't throwing the ball against them because they aren't very good at stopping them: they've allowed 16 TDs to 8 INTs while their opponents' QB rating against them is 102.1. So from Football Outsiders.com:

Team	Run Offense	Pass Offense	Run Defense	Pass Defense
Packers	13	8	6	7

Team	Run Defense	Pass Defense	Run Offense	Pass Offense
Buccaneers	30	31	20	26

While RB Ryan Grant isn't running his way to the Pro Bowl this season, the Bucs aren't stopping anyone, only holding their opponents to 4.7 yards/carry. That's similar to the Browns, who allow 4.9 yards/carry, and Grant ran over them for 148 yards and 1 TD. Packers.

As I mentioned above the jump, though teams aren't throwing a lot of passes against the Bucs, it doesn't mean they are stopping the ones that are thrown. QB Aaron Rodgers has a QB rating of 110.4, Bucs are "holding" their opponents to a 102.1 QB rating - it sounds like a matchup Rodgers should win. Packers.

If the Bucs have one bright spot, it's their running game, which is moving along at a 4.2 yards/carry. Both of their top rushers, RB Cadillac Williams and RB Derrick Ward, are over 4 yards/carry this season. But the Packers run defense has been even better, holding opponents to 3.5 yards/carry, while only allowing 3 rushing TDs and recovering 4 fumbles. The Bucs rushing attack is doing about as well as Detroit and Cleveland, and neither of those teams did much running the ball against the Packers earlier this season. Packers.

While not as good as last season, the Packers pass defense is still very good with 11 INTs and holding their opponents to a QB rating of 74.4. The Bucs have been awful the last 4 weeks with QB Josh Johnson as their starter, not that QB Byron Leftwich did much in the 3 games he started. So, as mentioned before the jump, they are turning to the rookie Freeman. It's hard to know how the rookie will play, but if he is truly better than Johnson or Leftwich (at this point in his career) you'd think he would have started before week 8. Packers.

Packers 38, Bucs 10.

Analysis: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Through 7 Games

Brandon — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 17:15:17 -0000

You might have noticed that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the only NFL team without a win this season, and the Green Bay Packers are going to play them on Sunday. And rookie QB Josh Freeman will have his 1st NFL start. The Packers should be favored, but they still have to travel to Tampa and win the game. Though I don't expect Mike McCarthy will let his players overlook any team.

Since I haven't watched a Bucs game this season, and don't know how the team that beat the Packers last season in week 4 has managed to become the only remaining winless team, I asked Buc 'Em blogger Niko Houllis a couple questions:

Brandon: What happened to the formerly great Tampa defense? The draft hasn't been kind in recent years, but they were still very good in early 2008. The collapse seems sudden to me.

Niko: That is a fanastic question. Most would say it's on the sideline singing "Rocky Top"! People can say what they want to, but the collapse started the game after Monte Kiffin announced he is headed to Tennessee to coach his son's defense. Other things happened around the same time too though. We got hurt on our D line, which wasn't that good to begin with. Carolina found a weakness. They were able to put 3 receivers on the field and keep us in a defense which favored their running attack. They were able to gash us for almost 300 yards on the ground in that Monday night game that Bucs fans were waiting all day for so we could finally pronounce our team for real...and give us an inside edge on the 2nd seed just like we had in our Super Bowl year. Little did we know we would not win a game again! Truth is, the Bucs misfired on their #1 draft pick Gaines Adams, and were lucky to get a #2 for him. But the defense had gotten old, and started to patch things up with bandaids like the offense had been doing too. Instead of tearing the team apart and starting over like were doing this year, the team kept using bandaids, and drafting poorly just about every draft.

Brandon: Are their offensive problems solely due to poor QB play, or have other areas on offense let you down?

Niko: Some feel the offensive line has not been playing up to its potential, but truth is it was a FAR drop from starting Center Jeff Faine to second string Sean Mahan, who was released in preseason, only to be called up again due to Faine's injury during game one. Teams were blitzing the heck out of our gap between our left guard and center, and we couldn't do anything about it. So that is not a fair assesment. The biggest problem has been the quarterback play. I'm not sure what the Bucs were thinking during preseason, everyone just knew Byron Leftwich wasn't starting material anymore, and then they traded Luke McCown, who really didn't beat anyone out to prove his worth this preseason anyways. Josh Johnson has some upside, but he doesn't have the pedigree Josh Freeman has. This team has now taken the step, this is the 6th generation of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and we will build around Freeman, though it may be ugly to watch at first.

Brandon: I've read articles that made it seem like Tampa's coaches have been unprepared. Is Raheem Morris a capable NFL head coach?

Niko: This is a hot topic. Any article I write about Morris gets many comments. Mostly negative. The older football fan (not trying to tick off any younger fans...) tend to be more patient because they have seen more seasons of football and understand this happens, while the younger fan tends to be more impatient and want him gone now for the big name guy . Funny how we forget the past, when Steve Spurrier and Jimmy Johnson were wanted but a guy named Tony Dungy came instead!

Winning Stats Power Ranking - Week 8

mgrex03 — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 04:40:20 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

The leader of the #1 Offense in the NFL. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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Quite a bit of movement this week in the Power Rankings, as the better teams start to separate themselves from the rest of the league. The Colts moved up 2 spots this week to #4 after their dismantling of the Rams. As I mentioned in the Inside the Numbers article, the Colts now have the #1 offense, but a middle of the pack defense, which is keeping them at #4.

The biggest surprise on here has the be the Patriots at #2, but that mainly has to do with the fact they've played the Titans and Buccaneers, who've combined for as many wins as all of us have this year. Their upcoming schedule of Dolphins, Colts, Jets, Saints (OMG!), and Dolphins again will show if they deserve to stay up there.

More analysis after the jump, along with the rankings:

Team	Power Rankings			Strength of Schedule
Team	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Saints	5	2	1	3	26	11
Patriots	2	8	2	17	22	19
Broncos	7	3	3	29	11	18
Colts	1	16	4	28	27	27
Packers	6	5	5	31	24	30
Giants	12	6	6	11	29	22
Ravens	3	17	7	25	9	17
Eagles	18	1	8	22	32	32
Steelers	4	18	9	32	19	29
Vikings	11	10	10	30	14	25
Cowboys	8	20	11	20	23	20
Dolphins	10	19	12	8	6	4
Bengals	14	15	13	19	5	5
Cardinals	20	4	14	9	12	15
Texans	16	14	15	12	30	28
Falcons	9	23	16	18	8	14
Jets	23	7	17	6	20	12
Redskins	21	11	18	27	31	31
Seahawks	19	13	19	26	16	26
Chargers	13	28	20	23	7	8
Jaguars	15	27	21	21	25	24
49ers	25	9	22	15	15	21
Bears	17	24	23	24	4	10
Bills	28	12	24	10	18	16
Panthers	24	21	25	16	28	23
Chiefs	26	22	26	13	13	9
Lions	22	31	27	5	2	2
Titans	30	26	28	14	3	3
Buccaneers	29	30	29	1	21	7
Rams	27	32	30	7	10	13
Raiders	32	25	31	2	17	6
Browns	31	29	32	4	1	1

A few more thoughts from around the league:

Don't let common misconceptions tell you how well teams are playing. Take a look at the Ravens, Steelers, and Cardinals. All 3 are lauded over for the side of the football that is average at best, while excelling on the other side. It was crazy to include Kurt Warner in any MVP talks last year, and it's even more so this year. Likewise with the Steelers and Ravens...they are winning on Offense, and not on Defense.
I was talking to a buddy of mine who is an Eagles fan, and I mentioned to him about the Eagles being #1 defensively. He was quick to point out the QBs they have faced this year: Delhomme, Brees, Cassel, Josh Johnson, Russell, and Campbell. They really just need Derek Anderson thrown in to make it complete. They have had the easiest defensive schedule so far, but that is pretty obvious.
The Giants have really slipped the past 2 weeks, after playing some real teams. Maybe they aren't as good as everyone in New York made them out to be.
The Colts schedule has been pretty easy so far this season. Having the schedule backloaded isn't such a bad thing though. It will keep them motivated throughout the season, and playing sharp going into January.

This weekend I'm going to attempt to get a Defensive-Adjusted Ranking. That is, if I can figure out iterative calculations in Excel. This will (hopefully) give us a little clearer picture as to how well these teams are playing.

Stat of the Day: JaMarcus Russell is Not Good

John (obviousman) — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 21:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Tony Avelar - AP

about 1 month ago: Oakland Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell sits on the bench in the closing minutes of Oakland's 38-0 loss to the New York Jets in an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Oct. 25, 2009. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar)

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I know every time I bring up QB rating people feel the need to mention that it's an antiquated statistic. I get it. There are probably better means of identifying who the best and worst QBs in the league are, but the QB rating still works quite well.

If we're looking at all of the QBs in the league, who would be your top 10 in 2009? Would it look like this?

That's your top 10 NFL QBs in 2009 ranked by their QB Rating. It's not identical to my list of the best 2009 QBs (I'd probably have Rodgers down a couple of spots), but it's damn close. That's why I continue to at least respect the QB Rating stat as a means to judge a QB's performance.

Here where it gets amazing. There are 32 teams in the NFL and therefore 32 starting QBs. Due to injuries and changes in the position for some teams, 35 QBs have averaged at least 14 passes per game. Can you guess where JaMarcus Russell ranks amongst those 35 signal-callers? 34th. That means there are at least two QBs in the league who are or were considered backups that have played better.

Now here's the kicker. The only QB that is still getting a chance to play the position with a lower QB Rating is Derek Anderson, who is probably only playing because the Browns don't want to give Brady Quinn a $11 million bonus. He is considered a starter, and Quinn does not have enough snaps to be ranked. That means there are three QBs that are or were considered backups with higher QB ratings than Russell. Can you name them all? (Answer at the end of the post)

		Passing									Rushing					Sacks
	G	Rating	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	INT	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Sack	YdsL
2009 - JaMarcus Russell	7	47.2	74	160	46.3	891	127.3	5.6	2	8	15	38	5.4	2.5	0	18	101

Those numbers are astonishing low. How low? So low that even 2008 JaMarcus Russell would laugh at them....

His 47.2 QB Rating is the lowest of his career. His previous lowest QB Rating was 55.9, during his rookie campaign.
The 46.3% completion rate doesn't even come close to JaMarcus' previous lowest completion rate (53.8%).
His career TD/INT ratio before this season was 5/4, far better than the 1/4 he's producing in 2009.
Although Oakland's line was supposedly improved since last season, Russell is on pace to be sacked 41 times in 2009. That's significantly more than the 31 times he was sacked in 2008.
5% of his passes in 2009 have been intercepted. That's more than double last season, where only 2.2% of his passes were picked off.
1.3% of his passes in 2009 have been touchdowns. Not only is that less than half of his second worst season (2007 - 3.0%), but if you take away the Louis Murphy touchdown against the Chargers (where nobody covered him) that percentage goes down to 0.6%.
In 2008, JaMarcus used his nimble feet and big body to gain 7.5 yards per carry as a runner. In 2009, he's gaining just 2.5 YPC.
In 2008, Russell proved to have a difficult time fumbling the ball, losing the pigskin 12 times in 15 games. In 2009, he's on pace to fumble it 11.5 times over 16 games. That's an improvement!

Trivia Answer: Technically there are five "backup" QBs with higher QB ratings than Russell. Kevin Kolb (88.9) filled in for McNabb and Seneca Wallace (82.6) filled in for Matt Hasselbeck. Both played significantly better than JaMarcus Russell. Now here's where it just gets silly.....

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers benched Byron Leftwich after he posted a 71.2 QB Rating in the first few games of the season. His replacement, Josh Johnson, was replaced after a handful of games after posting a 50.9 QB Rating. Josh Freeman, who hasn't thrown enough passes to be ranked, played for about a quarter against the Patriots and still managed a 60.4 QB Rating. All three QB Ratings are higher than Russell's.

Bucs lose as expected, get 1st glimpse of future.

Niko Houllis — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 20:49:45 -0000

More photos » by Matt Dunham - AP

Randy Moss was held scoreless with 5 catches for 59 yards.

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For those who were waiting for the Freeman watch, you got your first sighting. Rookie Josh Freeman was inserted into the game once the Patriots extended their lead to 4 Touchdowns. Freeman neither excelled nor disapointed; completing a nice pass to Brian Clark, and extending a play with his legs while also getting rid of the ball when pressured.

Josh Johnson on the other hand could not have started the day out any worse, converting a few plays into first downs, but staring down his receiver which resulted in a Pick 6. On the day he was 9 of 26 for 156 yards; 3 interceptions and one TD.

The Bucs defense did not really allow the Patriots to enjoy anything they didnt earn. Aqib Talib had another pick, and the defensive line applied some pressure at times with rookie Roy Miller in the game, but gave up 107 yards rushing along with 307 yards passing; somewhat moderate for New England. The line even pressured Brady into a few turnovers.

Special Teams continue to improve as a partial block was recorded, and several other Bucs came close to stopping some others.

In the end, the Buccaneers were not able to make enough plays, and the New England Patriots were.

The Buccaneers will fly home to Tampa and enjoy the week off as they resume playing in two weeks at home VS Green Bay. This will be the throwback game where Bucs fans will join in celebrating Lee Roy Selmon's induction into the new Tampa Bay Ring of Honor by wearing 1976 Orange uniforms, and perhaps a change in quarterbacks.

Bucs on the verge of a Top 10 Pass Defense!

Niko Houllis — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 15:45:10 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

One of the reasons the Bucs have improved in pass defense.

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Before you go down your own "Life on Mars" checklist of possible causes of this unbelievable headline, know one thing. It is NOT a misprint or typo. Use whatever reasoning you want to in coming up with an explanation, (like the fact we have the 31st rushing defense) but the numbers do not lie. We are currently the 11th Passing defense, at 198.5 yards per game, and that's not the only statistic that the Bucs are better than the average bear in.

In what is exclusively an offensive catagory, the Bucs are tied for 14th in sacks allowed. This is easy to understand, as Josh Johnson is not easilly sacked, and the fact that our Offensive Line is one of our biggest assets.

Then you have probably the only catagory that both sides have to contribute to, the turnover margin. In this realm, the Bucs are a respectable 16th (Tied) at -1, meaning with one more interception by a Tanard Jackson or so, the Bucs will have given the ball away as often as they have taken it.

So what does it all mean? Well speaking of T-jack, it may be no mystery that since his return the Bucs pass defense has improved (along the lines of Jimmy Wilkerson and Styles White increased results in rushing the passers) in passing stats. Rushing stats however, the Bucs are virtually dead last, 31st, at 171.7 yards per game, absolutely absurd for an NFL team. Clearly the Bucs need to invest in their interior defensive line, somthing has really has not been news for several years now, going back to the weekly requests by former Head Coach Jon Gruden calling for more effort from his D line. One by one the stars on the line have gone, and have not been replaced adequately.

Simeon Rice ---> Gaines Adams---> Styles G White...

Warren Sapp--->Chartric Darby---->Anthony McFarland--->Ellis Wyms---->Jovan Haye---->Ryan Simms....

Brad Culppeper---->Anthony McFarland---->Chris Hovan....

Greg Spires---->Kevin Carter---->Jimmy Wilkerson

as you can see, only one, and that is probably debatable, is close to the same level as the guys who rushed the passer in the heyday of Franchise. Luckily, the 2010 draft of which the Bucs are stacked with an ultra high #1 and #2 pick, as well as an extra #2 pick of the Bears for the trade involving Gaines Adams. Expect youngsters like Roy Miller to get serious playing time for the rest of 2009 as Raheem Morris looks to see what he has from the latest picks.

Losing taking its toll on Bucs fans, but Winning could be FREE MAN

Niko Houllis — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 16:45:09 -0000

His time has come?

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Make no mistake about the intent of this article. Josh Johnson did nothing to lose the game to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. Johnson does not play DT to stop the running plays on the final drive. Johnson does not play kicker, to take a ball snapped terribly, but still managed to get down and in place, and kick it short on an attempt less than 50 yards. Andrus should get another chance to be sure. Everything I've heard about him is he is going to be an excellent kicker. Johnson does play quarterback however, who's main job is to lead the team, and throw the ball. Johnson has all the tools to be a leader, and he is fun and amazing to watch run. But Josh Johnson regressed a bit in his ever so short three game career, and hesitated too much in throwing the ball downfield.

We don't know if receivers were not getting open, but we do know that wasn't the problem in Washington when we asked the same questions. 10 million dollar a year Wide Receiver Antonio Bryant caught only 2 balls, and only three balls were thrown his way. That is too little. Only 17 balls thrown all together. That is too few as well. It feels like we passed the ball too much, and did not ran enough. The truth is, we did not do anything on offense enough, because we did not have the ball. But doesn't that fall on the quarterback too? You keep the ball when you convert 3rd downs.

The common feeling is that the Bucs will give Josh Freeman a chance to start in the Green Bay game after a bye week to prepare him. But wouldn't that time be just as well served showing Freeman game film of his mistakes or good plays so he can go into that Green Bay game more prepared?

The time to start Josh Freeman is now. Jeff Faineis back, and the Line protected well, similar to how it did the first week of the season when Faine last started.

As a coach, Raheem Morris presented Freeman to the Bucs to consider, and as a group the Bucs OK'ed the move to pick the Kansas State product, who was considered one of the three best quarterback prospects coming out of college last year. The other two, Mark Sanchez of the Jets and Mathew Stafford of Detroit are showing promise as rookies. Morris was quoted as saying he felt Freeman was better than Sanchez; well this is the time to show us you were right. To be honest, Morris' job may sink or swim on Freeman's performance. If he starts, and totally flops, Morris has stuck his reputation to him, and a two, one or NO win season could cost him. He also could save his job should Freeman play like the Mr. Franchise he is supposed to be.

We've been told Freeman is not quite ready before, but we saw him in the preseason, and he was raw, but no more so than Johnson really. To be honest, Luke McCown didn't play much better, so putting Freeman in with the time he has had lately to practice with the starting unit, and with the better talent around him, is needed to pump some life into the franchise. After all, Freeman IS the franchise right?

Bucs fans are only clinging onto one thing..the knowledge that this team is growing and learning because they are young. Bucs fans want to have hope, and there is no better hope than the Franchise Quarterback playing in the last ten games and putting down film to work on in the off-season, so when he starts in 2010, he is not a virtual rookie like Johnson this year.

We put up with Dilfer's terrible decision making, and Vinny's 35 interceptions. Trust me, Bucs fans will be just fine on a Quarterback we understand is there to stay and there to grow. The same is not true for a late round draft pick while the future is sitting on the bench.

PEWTER PREVIEW VIDEO- Carolina Panthers edition

Niko Houllis — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 11:00:18 -0000

Remember Gaines Adams masterful quarter against the Redskins? Think about that when your watching Brian Billick show you how Carolina pressured Redskin's QB Campbell. This leads me to believe the Panthers D line is as inept as ours. That could be good news for 2nd year Quarterback Josh Johnson who seems to be improving in just two games so far. It's hard to read though, as neither Quarterback in the Redskins/Panthers game passed for over 185 yards. Nor did a back gain more than 60 yards, with Clinton Portis as the leader (57). Both teams combined for 446 total yards, heck the Bucs have given up more than that in one game this year!

Crazy as it sounds, the Bucs actually out-rushed the Eagles 85 to 76 yards, and managed 303 yards of total offense while surrendering only 325 this time around. Eagles fantasy favorite DeSean Jackson was held to under 5 yards, blanketed by Aqib Talib. Also, Michael Vick and the Wildcat achieved nothing. One could say if not for the big plays, the defense is starting show signs of shoring up. Our own UNFNole broke down an Eagle play yesterday, and now today, Courtesy of NFL Network, we bring you highlights of the Carolina Panthers and a section from "Playbook" that shows some in depth look into the team from Charlotte.

Panthers' Hump Day Prognostication

James The Aussie — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 14:28:49 -0000

More photos » by Alex Brandon - AP

2 months ago: Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Aqib Talib intercepts a pass intended for Washington Redskins wide receiver Santana Moss during the fourth quarter of the NFL football game in Landover, Md., Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009. Washington won 16-13. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

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Happy hump day Panther faithful! We've had a few days now to come down from our first victory of the season and there's no better time than a Wednesday to remember the previous Sunday's contest with fond memories and prepare ourselves for another battle this Sunday.

This week we head to Raymond James Stadium to take on the 0-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa are a team clearly rebuilding in 2009 as 1^st year head coach Raheem Morris attempts to put his stamp on a franchise shaped over the years by the likes of Tony Dungy and John Gruden. Sunday will represent the third start for QB Josh Johnson, who while playing admirably, is realistically a placeholder and bridge to the future, 2009 first round pick QB Josh Freeman.

I know we're all feeling confident about this weekend's game, but any Panther fan should know that it is prudent to never nap on the Buccaneers. They have a tendency to always play bigger than they are against the Panthers (week 6, 2008). Fortunately for us, we do this same... as a 186 yard performance from DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart's steamrolling performance in week fourteen of last season showed. So, lets break it down after the jump:

Tampa Bay Offense

Last week I said that the key to our victory against the Redskins would be stopping Chris Cooley. Well, Cooley was shut down and the ‘Skins offense couldn't move the ball... at all. This week against Tampa we see our fourth exceptional tight end in a row, Kellen Winslow. Winslow is far and away the most integral element to the Bucs passing offense. He has 100 yards more than the team's next best receiver and leads the team in TD receptions with four. To shut down the pass we will need Thomas Davis and Chris Harris to monitor and shut down Kellen Winslow as they were able to do with Chris Cooley; it's as simple as that. If we force Johnson to have to rely on Michael Clayton and Antonio Bryant to get yards then the Bucs are facing a major uphill battle.

Though the stats don't show it overall, Tampa Bay are running the football quite well and have a good stable of backs. Lead by the resurgent Cadillac Williams who is averaging 4.1 ypc and offseason acquisition Derrick Ward, also averaging 4.1 ypc they are able to move the ball effectively. However, I don't see Williams or Ward to be the true threat on the ground. That distinction belongs to Josh Johnson.

Carolina is historically bad dealing with running QBs, and Johnson seems to be emerging as a major threat. Though Johnson does look for the pass first he has been able to be the team's third leading rusher while averaging 7.4 yards per carry, rushing most recently for 8 ypc against a very potent Philadelphia Eagles defense.

I see the key to Carolina getting the defensive edge this Sunday to be this: Evaluating and monitoring both Kellen Winslow's ability on passing downs and Josh Johnson's ability on the ground.

Unfortunately, both of these roles normally fall to Thomas Davis. Davis is our spy to deal with rushing QBs and our primary pass defense against opposing TE's. We can't risk spying Johnson with Beason, so it will be incumbent upon Chris Harris to handle Winslow, allowing Davis to watch the QB.

This will leave Charles Godfrey out on an island for a lot of the game, and while Tampa's WR's are mediocre, we can't sleep on them. It will be up to Richard Marshall and Chris Gamble to lock down their WR's and allow Godfrey to excel in a cover 1 while Harris watches Winslow. If the Panther's secondary can hold while the d-line and LBs blitz then we win the battle, simple as that.

Tampa Bay Defense

Defensively, Tampa Bay has several weapons and some effective players but as a unit they are not playing up to their potential. While they have some big names on defense (Barrett Ruud, Ronde Barber, Gaines Adams) it's a player you may not have heard of who represents their true defensive threat, 7^th year pro DE Jimmy Wilkerson.

Wilkerson is having a dominant season at RE for the Bucs, with 5 sacks, 2 FF and 20 tackles. He's exceeded his totals from 2008 in 5 games and is proving to be a difference maker. Jeff Otah will need to be sure that he's able to keep him in check and our offensive line in general will need to play far better than they did last week.

Outside of Wilkerson the Panthers will have to watch out for ball hawk Aqib Talib. The second year pro is coming into his own and proving he has shut down potential at corner. With three interceptions and six passes defended he's not afraid to play the ball in the air and is excellent at breaking up routes. The Panthers and Steve Smith should utilize a lot of double moves, quick slants, screens and hitches to try and throw off Talib's ability to jump the route. If plays are being calling for 15 yard posts, slants and digs then Talib will eat us alive, we have to throw him off by running quick plays.

Those are the major threats on the Buccaneers' defense. Barrett Ruud is an excellent linebacker who will make some plays on our RBs but he's not a major threat on the blitz and doesn't penetrate as much as some of the other LBs we've seen this season.

Final Prognosis

On paper this could be a very, very big game for the Panthers. Simply put, we have more skill at almost every position than Tampa Bay. However, you just never know which way the ball can bounce in these divisional games. I said after week one that I would be putting a personal moratorium on guessing scores until we get a win, well, we got our win so I am now lifting my self imposed ban.

It's going to be a good, smash mouth game at Raymond James and fireworks will fly just as they do every Panthers v. Bucs game. Ultimately though, they don't have enough defensive tools to counter our offensive weapons, and the Panthers match up well against their offensive strengths.

Carolina Panthers 28 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

Panthers vs. Bucs: Blogger Q&A

Jaxon — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 13:37:49 -0000

More photos » by Mel Evans - AP

2 months ago: Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Josh Johnson (11) is sacked by Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Chris Gocong (57) in the first quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Mel Evans)

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It's Wednesday Panther fans and that means its time to move past last weeks game and onto the match-up at hand. This week the Panthers travel to the Big Sombrero that is Tampa Stadium, home of the Buccaneers. The blogger team from SBN’s Buc ‘em blog joins us this week for the next installment of blogger Q&A. Providing the answers to my five questions is Niko, BucWild and UNFNole who blog quite robustly about the Tampa Bay Bucs. Be sure to check out my answers to their questions over at Buc em.

If you should have a question or two as well feel free to post it in the comments and we’ll see if we can get one of the guys to come over and answer it by the end of the week.

Let’s get this party started:

Question 1: We might as well start at the top. So what is your impression on new HC Raheem Morris at this point? Is there anything about him that has surprised you? Still happy?

Buc ‘em: I'm one of the people who actually knew about Raheem Morris before February of 2009. When he came back from one year at Kansas State, he immediately repaired a great deal of damage from the 2006 secondary, which became a fantastic 2007 defensive backfield. Has Morris made mistakes? Yes. The Training Camp, OTAs, Preseason battle between McCown and Leftwich, all wasted. The Offensive coordinator shambles, and perhaps even the choice of defensive coordinator, which we won’t know for some time if that was a mistake. Cutting Derrick Brooks and his leadership could be another one. There are many Bucs fans who want him removed ASAP. But the knowledgeable football fans understand that the real problem of the Bucs is a lack of experience and talent. Instead of retooling, Jon Gruden and Bruce Allen repaired holes with band-aids, aging veterans and castoffs that are no longer in the league.

It doesn’t sound an ideal first season for the Morris regime.

Question 2. So is your offense now a passing offense or are you still a running offense? Which should the Panthers plan for the most?

Buc ‘em: It depends on how fast and much of a lead you get on us! The Bucs have been passing a lot because they have fallen behind a lot. Also, they have run the ball well at home. You can expect a heavy dose of Cadillac and Ward, but if you get 14 points spotted on us early that might change that prediction. Or if you’re able to shut down the run like Philly Was, that too could put the ball more in Josh Johnson hands.

The Panthers will certainly want to force the Bucs to play catch up and throw the ball. SS Chris Harris has a big match-up with TE Kellen Winslow.

Question 3. Tell us about the QB situation. Are you happy with Josh Johnson at QB? Do you expect rookie QB Josh Freeman to get a start soon?

Buc ‘em: Josh Johnson has really shown remarkable improvement in just the two games he has played in so far. Bucs fans know Josh Freeman is supposed to be the future of this franchise, but Coach Morris has said this is Johnson's team until Freeman is ready. Freeman has the physical tools to be successful, but Johnson has the ability to stretch the play with his feet, and has a quick release and accurate/ strong arm. As long as he is not part of the problem, Bucs fans are cheering for JJ.

For those Johnson fans it sounds like this kid could become available in the future. He is just the kind of player the Panthers would target in free agency.

Question 4. How have the big Free Agent acquisitions RB Derrick Ward and TE Kellen Winslow met expectations? How do you rate those moves so far?

Buc ‘em: They came after the failure to secure arguably the biggest prize in free agency, Albert Haynesworth. They were met with immediate applause, which turned to some little boos as K2 got a contract extension and did not show up for all the OTAs. However, with his 100+ yard game last week, Bucs fans got to see that K2 can be Josh Johnson's best friend in the passing game, and Derrick Ward simply hasn’t had a chance because quick 14 point deficits have had the Bucs offense more in passing mode. When he has gotten the chance, Ward has made the best of it, and Bucs fans know that no matter what, the running back position is the deepest on the team, and not a major cause for concern.

We know that Derrick Ward and Warrick Dunn can hurt us so there’s even more emphasis on getting an early lead.

Question 5. Has perennial Pro Bowl LB Derrick Brooks been adequately replaced? Who's your defensive MVP to date?

Buc ‘em: There is no way to replace a sure-fire first ballot Hall of Famer like Derrick Brooks. You just try to do your best to refill in the position. Geno Hayes was Brooks’ protégé last season, and still gets text pointers from ESPN's newest member. Hayes, like Brooks, is considered a little on the small size, but what Hayes mostly lacks is the experience Derrick brought to the position. One such example is the Slow It Down play you can see on our site from Wednesday. Brooks would have sniffed that play out; instead the Eagles used it to trick Hayes. Defensive End Jimmy Wilkerson had three sacks vs. the Eagles, and has been the lone standout on the Defensive line which needs a complete overhaul in the offseason.

I’m still surprised Brooks hasn’t landed somewhere else. I’m also surprised to hear the DL needs an overhaul. It sounds like RT Jeff Otah may have his hands full with Wilkerson.

Score prediction:

Buc ‘em: Probably a close game as most Carolina/Tampa Bay games seem to go. Probably not a whole lot of defense, nor offense either for that matter. 50 total points seems about right any way you want to slice them up. 23-21 should be the score, and for the last time this season, I will pick Tampa Bay.

I'm thinking its more like 31-17 Panthers.