SB Nation - Jeremy Zuttah

New York Jets Pass Defense vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pass Offense

John B — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 21:03:42 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Rookie quarterback melts down. That was the story last week for Tampa. We know how they feel. In his first four starts, though, Josh Freeman had looked pretty good for a rookie with a 7 to 5 touchdown to interception ratio. Accuracy had been something of an issue as it is with many rookies. However, Freeman offered a glimpse of what he may become two weeks ago with a 20 for 29 250 yard game against Atlanta. You may remember I was against taking Freeman in the Draft last April because he threw a ton of interceptions in college and seemed to have a high bust factor. He's given the Bucs room for cautious optimism this year.

I tend to think a second straight rough week is more likely than a bounce back this week. This is a really good Jets defense that will throw looks at him he has never seen. He's also going to have to do without his top wide receiver in any likely scenario. Our friends at Buc Em seem to think Antonio Bryant will be able to hold his own against Revis. I respectfully disagree with our friends. As they point out, Revis shut down Andre Johnson and Randy Moss. Is there anything Bryant can do that Moss or Johnson can't do better? I don't think so. I understand the pass rush does aid corners, but the reverse is also true. Part of the reasons the Jets have had so impressive rushing the passer has been that the coverage has held when blitzes have been picked up, which gives rushers extra time to get to the quarterback.

The Bucs will probably have Freeman focus on Kellen Winslow to make his throws safe. Winslow is Tampa's leading receiver with 58 receptions and 633 yards. This could be a game for Kerry Rhodes to reassert himself. I'm not sure I like the matchup between Winslow and Eric Smith. Winslow's way more athletic.

Beyond that, it's not clear what Tampa has in the passing game. Both Michael Clayton and Sammie Stroughter are battling injuries and quite possibly could miss the game, which would leave Maurice Stovall and his 18 receptions in the starting lineup. With Revis on Bryant, the Jets can scheme their coverage around Winslow because Lito Sheppard should be able to handle his assignment without much help.

Another problem will be protection. Tampa Bay's tackles, Jeremy Trueblood and Donald Penn, and center Jeff Faine are all in the top seven at their position in terms of pressures allowed. This could force the rookie to make a lot of mistakes. Guard Davin Joseph in in the top five while Jeremy Zuttah is in the top fifteen. It's a young line that is still a work in progress.

Friday Injury Report: Green Bay Packers at Tampa

Brandon — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 07:18:28 -0000

The week's list is long for the Green Bay Packers. While a lot has gone wrong for the Buccaneers during their 0-7 start, injuries have not been their biggest problem.

For the Packers, a couple players (Lang and Allen) were injured during practice this week. Chillar is out for a couple weeks after having surgery on his broken hand. Driver (neck stinger) and Rodgers (feet) were held out all week, until Friday's practice, but they're almost certain to play through the pain. Clifton was back at practice all week, apparently his practice on Friday was limited just as a precaution, and he should start on Sunday. Hall was back in practice, after missing a couple weeks, but he was still limited and a good candidate to be left inactive on Sunday. Maybe the same can be said for Martin. There was nothing written, at least that I read, about Woodson's injury, so it's apparently not serious and he should start on Sunday. Again this week, Finley, Nelson, and Spitz are all out.

For the Bucs, their starting WR Antonio Bryant is likely to miss the game due to the knee injury he aggravated while flying coach. Maybe they'll be without 2nd year CB Elbert Mack, but since he's only started 1 NFL game, he's probably not a key part of their defense.

The complete injury lists, for both teams, are after the jump.

Player	Pos.	Injury	Friday Participation	Friday Status
Jake Allen	WR	Quadricep	Limited Participation	Questionable
Brandon Chillar	LB	Hand	Out	Out
Chad Clifton	T	Ankle	Limited Participation	Probable
Donald Driver	WR	Neck	Full Participation	Probable
Jermichael Finley	TE	Knee	Did Not Participate	Out
Korey Hall	FB	Calf	Limited Participation	Questionable
T.J. Lang	G/T	Oblique	Limited Participation	Questionable
Derrick Martin	S	Concussion	Limited Participation	Questionable
Jordy Nelson	WR	Knee	Did Not Participate	Out
Aaron Rodgers	QB	Feet	Full Participation	Probable
Jason Spitz	C/G	Back	Did Not Participate	Out
Charles Woodson	CB	Hip	Full Participation	Probable


Player	Pos.	Injury	Friday Participation	Friday Status
Antonio Bryant	WR	Knee	Did Not Participate	Questionable
Michael Clayton	WR	Wrist	Full Participation	Questionable
Elbert Mack	CB	Ankle	Did Not Participate	Questionable
Aqib Talib	CB	Ankle	Full Participation	Probable
Jeremy Zuttah	G	Shoulder	Full Participation	Probable

Bills will have a job unbalancing Tampa on Sunday

Brian Galliford — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 15:30:17 -0000

More photos » by Brian Blanco - AP

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Prior to the start of the NFL's regular season, the Buffalo Bills were one of three teams to fire their offensive coordinator. Buffalo's opponent this week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, was one of the other teams to make this move, relieving Jeff Jagodzinski of his duties and promoting Greg Olson to the position of Offensive Coordinator/Quarterbacks. If Buffalo's offense scored a mild surprise with 276 yards, 17 points and relative efficiency in their Week 1 loss, then Tampa Bay's 450-yard, 21-point outburst was nothing short of shocking.

Blessed with one of the better young offensive lines in the league, a deep stable of running backs, and talent at tight end and receiver (when healthy), QB Byron Leftwich - a temporary starter until first-round pick Josh Freeman is ready to assume command of the offense - has found himself unexpectedly rich with surrounding talent. Considering Buffalo's mediocre second-half defensive performance in New England, defensive coordinator Perry Fewell has a large task in front of him trying to slow down Tampa's surprising offense.

Examining the Bucs' O-Line
At first blush, essentially the entirety of Tampa's starting offensive line - Donald Penn, Jeremy Zuttah, Sean Mahan, Davin Joseph and Jeremy Trueblood - well, let's just say these aren't names that jump off the page at you. Joseph, a 2006 first-round pick, is probably the best player of the group, and likely the most recognizable name as well. This line didn't come together in a traditional manner, but boy, are they talented.

Penn is one of the more athletic tackles in the league; the former 2006 undrafted free agent was a pinch starter under Jon Gruden and hasn't looked back. He's an outstanding pass protector, and while he isn't dominant against the run, the Bucs have clearly procured themselves a diamond-in-the-rough left tackle (something the Bills are currently trying to emulate for a second time). Zuttah ('08, third round), Joseph ('06, first round) and Trueblood ('06, second round) all represent significant draft pick investments in the line, and they've paid off.

The weak area, for now, is center, where starter Jeff Faine is missing with a triceps injury. Mahan - himself a 2003 fifth-round pick by the Bucs - was re-signed after Faine went down, and spoke earlier this week as if he'd start in Faine's stead. If he doesn't, rookie Jonathan Compas will get the call.

Even factoring in the change at center, Tampa's offensive line routinely flashes dominance. They weren't perfect in 2008, allowing 32 sacks and finishing a rather average No. 15 in the NFL in rush offense, but that looks to change this season. With two "new" runners in Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward, the Bucs gouged a usually stout Cowboys defense on the ground to the tune of 160 yards and two scores on 26 carries. Yes, folks, that's over six yards per carry. To say that the running game is the lifeblood of Tampa's offense is a severe understatement.

Balance is crucial to Tampa's attack
With that running game leading the way, Leftwich's job was simple in Week 1: manage the game. He did it relatively well, getting passes to ten different receivers. The play-action pass, obviously, is a weapon for the Bucs when their run game is clicking, and Leftwich has a huge arm; it's quite enough to keep defenses honest.

The fact that the Bucs have two athletic, productive tight ends - Kellen Winslow, Jr. and Jerramy Stevens - doesn't make the job any easier for the Bills. Both of these players have size and can stretch a defense vertically. They'll play an even more important role on Sunday, as top receiver Antonio Bryant is expected to sit out with an ailing knee. You don't need me to tell you that the Bills struggled to defend tight ends in New England.

This offense still has a lot to prove - one game does not an offensive juggernaut make - but let's not pretend that they're going to be easy for the Bills to contain. It would help them tremendously, first and foremost, to get off the field; going up against a pretty solid Pats offense last week, Buffalo gave the Patriots too many chances to make plays by allowing conversions on 10 of 16 third-down situations. That's not going to cut it.

Beat Tampa at their own game?
An early lead is crucial, as is containing - note the lack of the term "stopping" - the run and limiting allowed third-down conversions defensively. Tampa's defense is extremely vulnerable, so the Bills would do well to try beating the Bucs at their own game - running the ball, taking shots down field, and controlling the clock.

Those are the easiest ways to force the ball into Leftwich's hands more often. That theory, by leaps and bounds, represents Buffalo's best chance at scoring a victory in their home opener. If they can't find a way to take balance out of the equation, however, this is a Bucs offense that could really put the hurt on Fewell's unit. Buffalo needs to be careful, and they'll need to stay sharp offensively if things don't go well in this area.

Bills vs Buccaneers: Five questions with Buc 'Em

Brian Galliford — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 14:30:16 -0000

Last week in our pre-game preparations, we spent an entire six days interviewing the folks at Pats Pulpit about the then-upcoming Monday Night Football game. For the rest of the season, we'll be doing interviews in this format - five questions on Thursdays, and predictions on Saturdays.

The Buffalo Bills have a massively important rebound game - it's also their home opener, by the way - coming up this Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs opened their season with a 34-21 home loss to the Dallas Cowboys, and are making the trip to Ralph Wilson Stadium for the first time in franchise history this week. Here to help us understand a bit more about the Bucs are Buc Wild and Niko521bucs, big dogs at SB Nation's Buccaneers blog, Buc 'Em. Our conversation with these two Bucs bloggers are after the jump, and make sure you drop by Buc 'Em for the reciprocating Bills-centric interview/conversation.

The Bucs gave up three touchdown passes of 40+ yards to Tony Romo and the Cowboys this past Sunday. What happened on those plays?

Niko521bucs: It was a combination of inexperience in Jim Bates' new defense and inexperience on the part of safeties Sabby Piscitelli and Elbert Mack - two young guys in our secondary. Another major contributor to the problem is free safety Tanard Jackson, who is suspended for the first four weeks.

Buc Wild: He's right. Sabby Piscitelli got caught out of position on two of the big plays. It's a case of a young player not being disciplined enough in coverage. The other long TD came from a missed assignment by Elbert Mack, as he whiffed on the bump at the line of scrimmage.

Dallas did a great job of neutralizing DE Gaines Adams, who did not record a stat in Week 1. Beyond Adams, how does Tampa's pass rush look?

Niko521bucs: Not really that good. Honestly, neutralizing Gaines is not as hard as it sounds. Head Coach Raheem Morris has told him straight up that anything less than double digit sacks will label him a BUST. As for the rest, they did an adequate job against the run, but we have to improve against the pass.

Buc Wild: I hate to keep echoing Niko's thoughts here, but our pass rush is just not very strong right now. We have no premier pass rushers, and in Jim Bates' scheme, pressure comes from the DEs and LBs while the DTs clog the middle. This leaves it up to Adams, Jimmy Wilkerson and the linebacking crew. While they are young and talented, you just can't count on all the pressure coming from linebackers in a 4-3 scheme.

Byron Leftwich was efficient in Week 1, and the offense as a whole was excellent, picking up 450 total yards. How confident are you that that production will continue?

Niko521bucs: The biggest worry we have is losing Jeff Faine, center. But free agent pickup Jonathan Compas played in his absence pretty well. Left guard Jeremy Zuttah can play center, too. The trend should continue somewhat, especially once Faine returns in about four weeks.

Buc Wild: I'm confident that the offense can remain efficient; not so much in the 450 yards. I'm hoping our defense can cut some of the mistakes, thus allowing our offense to grind out some more yardage and clock. Leftwich shouldn't be throwing 40 times a game.

If you had to game plan against the Bucs, give us your brief strategies on offense and defense.

Niko521bucs: The Bucs like to run the ball, and will run with three if not four running backs, and then throw the ball on play action fakes.

Buc Wild: There are two ways to beat our offense - you either pressure Leftwich and force him off his spot, or you put eight in the box and stop the run. We're a pretty balanced offense, and throwing that balance off will kill us. On the defensive side, you beat the Bucs by throwing. I think we can stop the run fairly well, but with three young members of the secondary and Ronde Barber, there are holes to be had.

I'll admit that I was, and remain, a huge fan of Raheem Morris and his potential as an NFL head coach. But he's made some controversial moves early in his stint. How do you think Morris is coming along as a head man?

Niko521bucs: You will get different answers from different people, even probably within our site. I like Coach Morris, and do not feel he has really done anything all that crazy. Warrick Dunn, Derrick Brooks, Alex Smith, and Ike Hilliard are all still looking for work.

Buc Wild: My opinion is still being shaped, but as of now, I'm not sold. I think he's done some good and some bad, but he's making rookie mistakes. Problem is, we have no seniority to help him lead the team.

Grading Out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Offense

Buc Wild — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 15:00:24 -0000

With it being a short week, we'll get all the "Grading out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers" columns into one extra super duper happy fun time 24 hour period. When looking at each player/unit, we take into account what they did at their position. If McCown delivers a strike to a WR but the WR tips it to a defensive player and it gets picked, I'm not holding that against McCown.

As usual, we are looking at the previous game (Bucs @ Jags) and how each unit/individual did relative to their position on the team, expectations and other factors. For example (fictitious): Gaines Adams getting 2 hurries against first string opponent is worth more to me than him getting 2.5 sacks against the 4th string JV team.

To check out the grades, click the jump and read on.

Offense

Quarterback

Byron Leftwich - Got the start against Jacksonville. Didn't have a great performance but was able to move the offense with moderate success. Able to convert a 3rd a long with a strike delivered in the middle of the field. Still shows long windup, but with good protection was able to find receivers. Displayed little touch on his passes, relying on arm strength. When he has time, is able to survey the field. Not as strong as Week 1, but not a huge step back. Grade: B-

Luke McCown - Huge turnaround from week 1. Looked decisive, didn't escape pocket unnecessarily, was able to connect with two good throws for touchdowns. Worked with a short field, but was able to convert. Made good reads on most passes. Showed ability to make tough throws in tight spaces. Protected the ball. Grade: A-

Josh Freeman - Showed same habit of staring down receivers. Relied too much on arm strength with no touch shown. Continued to miss high on passes. Did complete some good passes. Accuracy was worse than last week, but typically missed in right places. Able to move pretty well for a bigger quarterback, as shown on his TD run. Needs work on his celebrations. Grade: C+ without celebration, C- when factoring in celebration

Josh Johnson - After the media hype, underperformed. Opportunities were limited. Did move well out of pocket, but no game changing plays. Ability still remains a threat. Showed good accuracy in limited chances. Still needs some game time. Grade: C-

Running Backs

Derrick Ward - Looked much better in week 2. Broke a few long runs showing good power, speed, vision, and agility. Next career may be Olympic hurdler. Was able to make guys miss 1 on 1. Got to second level quickly and efficiently and continually fell forward. Took advantage of holes provided by OL. Good fit in the system. Grade: B

Kareem Huggins - Displayed good quickness, good tenacity, and an ability to make a guy miss. Shook a few tacklers with some nasty jukes. Shifty runner who would be labeled third down back. Need to see blocking ability before crowning him with that title. Not too powerful, was often stopped at point of first solid contact. Grade: C+

B.J. Askew - Will prove to be a HUGE asset in the running game. Can carry out of the FB position and be a good option. Has good hands and remains a threat to block, run or catch the ball. Grade: B+

Wide Receivers

Michael Clayton - Was able to get most fans to shut up about the drops, for a week. Showed good awareness in routes. Able to catch tough passes. Still a brutal blocker that will help the running game. If he can continue on this road, will be a good player in this offense. Showed ability to scoop tough throws. Still need to see him catch on run, as that has been his bugaboo. Grade: B-

Bryan Clark - Appears as if he doesn't want the 3rd WR spot. Dropped an easy pass that hit him in hands. Doesn't seem to separate well in routes. Not going to demand attention. Grade: C

Sammy Stroughter - Either our 3rd WR now or in the near future. Showed ability to take a hit, hang on to ball and run good route all on same play. Has speed to get open, and appears to have sure hands. Asset in other phases of game. (Editor's Note: Sammy Stroughter will be the end of Dexter Jackson. They play the same positions, WR/KR/PR, Sammy already has better hands, willingness to take a hit, vision, and security. With the emergence of SS, D-Jack may be on the unemployment line. Similar skill set, but fear of contact won't help him make the team, along with injuries.) Grade: B+

Jerramy Stevens - All personal issues aside, will continue to be a weapon for any quarterback. Nice route, good hands, and good finish will do nothing to deter from his fans. Size advantage is big plus in red zone. Grade: B

Kellen Winslow - It may just be me, but is this guy doing anything? He's played both weeks and done little to nothing. I'd like to see him utilized more. Don't know if he isn't showing up due to limited snaps, injuries, or lack of familiarity, but trading away a pick and spending some cash, I want more from him. Grade: D

The Others - Urrutia, Stovall and other remain largely unimpressive. They can contribute on team, but aren't making strides or showing well on the field. With Clayton still banged up, would be nice to see them with another QB Grade: C-

Offensive Line

First String - Definite progress. Showed ability to open holes for running game. Davin Joseph and Jeremy Zuttah were destroying opposing DT's in run game. Pass protection was much better with defined pocket and above average time for QB's. A few penalties but a much needed huge step forward. Grade: B

Every other string - About what you'd expect from the other guys. Some nice plays, overshadowed by breakdowns and penalties. Some good provide some good depth on line, but won't make a mark anywhere else. Grade: C

After a pretty blah performance last week, the offense rebounded this week with more consistency, more big plays, and a better discipline in moving the ball. Offensive line provided time and holes when needed, quarterbacks delivered, running backs leapt over tall buildings, and receivers (generally) made plays. Progress is important, and we saw plenty on Saturday night. Grade: B-

How does the Tampa Bay Buccaneer's Offensive Line stack up?

Buc Wild — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 12:15:08 -0000

How did this group do in 2008? While highly touted, the numbers tell a different story.

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Grading out offensive lines is a difficult task. Other than sacks allowed, there are no commonly used metrics that can distinguish a good offensive line from a bad offensive line. We can try and judge by the naked eye and make claims like "Man, he gets beat a lot" (Robert Gallery at tackle) or "Wow he sucks, he has so many penalties" (Good afternoon Kenyatta Walker). We can try and listen to the talking heads about how one guy uses his hands as weapons, while the other doesn't swivel his hips enough.

But that doesn't really let us evaluate the offensive line. An offensive lineman's performance can be affected by the scheme run, the opponent played, and even if the team is protecting a lead or trying to mount a comeback. Other issues are the quality of players around you, specifically the running back. The best offensive lines can be made to look dismal with a below average running back while a bad line can be made to look good with a great back.

But how have they performed as a group? There are a few more advanced metrics that attempt to value the offensive line based on several different factors. I'll introduce those metrics, define them both in the technical terms as well as an easier to understand version, and then we'll look at how the Bucs fared in those categories.

Hit the jump for a look inside the numbers.

I was motivated to do this look at offensive lines based on Tomahawk Nation's excellent look at the FSU OL. The available statistics between the college game and professional game vary, but there are still some telling statistics to be looked at.

Let me be the first to say that I was/am very high on the Bucs offensive line. As a unit they have all the makings of a strong, aggressive unit. Davin Joseph, Jeremy Trueblood, Jeff Faine, Arron Sears, Jeremy Zuttah and Donald Penn all fit into the mold of what you want in an offensive lineman. We've heard for a year or two how some of these guys are future Pro Bowlers, and I have no doubt that as individuals, some of these players will take home some awards.

Let's take a look at 2008 numbers on the offensive line, which are provided FootballOutsiders.

To get you comfortable with some of the statistics/metrics that will be used, let's look at the explanations on FootballOutsiders (or FO).

Adjusted Line Yards:

Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:

Losses: 120% value

0-4 Yards: 100% value

5-10 Yards: 50% value

11+ Yards: 0% value

These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, opponent, and the difference in rushing average between shotgun compared to standard formations. Finally, we normalize the numbers so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry, (which is 4.08 yards)

In language that us regular folks might understand, each running play has a specific value for the offensive line. If a running back gains 4 yards, the OL is credited with 100% of that, or 4 yards. If the back is hit for a loss of 2 yards, the OL gets credit for -2.4 yards.

It also mentions it "adjust" the numbers based on down, distance etc. What this refers to is 5 yard gains are not created equally. A 5 yard gain on 3rd and 15 is not as valuable as a 5 yard gain on 3rd and 4. Additionally a 5 yard run from the opponent's 5 yard line is worth more than a 5 yard run from midfield.

Using Adjusted Line yards (or ALY), let's see how the Bucs fared in 2008.

Rank	Team	Adj Line Yards	RB Yards
22	TB	4.04	4.09
NFL	Avg	X	4.25

I can already hear you asking, "so what does this mean?" Remember that in Adjusted Line Yards, 4.08 was the league average. The Bucs OL was very slightly below average in this category, coming in at an ALY of 4.04 yards per carry. Additionally, the running backs averaged 4.09 yards per carry (this is in the standard metric we are used to seeing). To put it all together, on a given carry, we can expect a run of 4.09 yards, with 4.04 yards of credit going to the OL and .05 yards going to the running back. Our running backs are basically going only as far as our line will take them and were below average in 2008.

Another way of looking at this is our running backs are extremely dependent on the offensive line on any given running play. For comparison's sake, the Giants were at the top with an ALY of 4.62 and a YPC of 5.28, while the Bengals were at the bottom with an ALY of 3.31 and a YPC of 3.22 (their running backs actually gained less than what the OL provided)

This is somewhat of a shocking number for all the accolades our line received from staff, media, and fans alike. They were average, ranked 22nd in the NFL in adjusted line yards in 2008. Had you asked me before viewing these numbers, I would've guessed top 12. The ALY does vary based on where the run goes (off tackle and to which side), but we'll cover that later. On to the next metric

Power Success

Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.

You might call this the "smash mouth football" look as it looks as running plays on short to gain situations. Goal line runs, 3rd and 1, 4th and 1 etc. With big nasties like Trueblood and Joseph, we had to fare pretty well in this category, right? Let's look at the 2008 numbers and see.

Rank	Team	Power Success	League Avg
17	TB	65%	67%

Again, mildly disappointing. Just below league averaged and in the bottom half of the league. We converted 65% of our "power success" opportunities, good for 17th in the league (bottom half) and slightly below league average. The tops and bottoms of the league were Carolina at 79% (I think we contributed to that number) and San Francisco at 52%.

With an undersized "power back" in Earnest Graham, and injuries at fullback, this might help explain some of the lack of success. This has to change this year if we are going to a run-based offense. We'll have more than our fair share of 3rd and short and I would put a 70-72% range as a reasonable benchmark to be successful.

Now that we've looked at the short yardage situations, let's look at long or breakaway runs.

10+ Yards

Percentage of a team's rushing yards more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Represents yardage not reflected in Adjusted Line Yards stat.

This seems easy enough. Look at all the yards that are more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Then take them as a percentage of the total yards.

The thinking here is, once a running back gets 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, the offensive line has done their part. This yardage is fully dependent on a running back making people miss or breaking tackles. This is a measure of the breakaway ability or big gain potential of a team. Any yards gained on a running play after the initial 10 yards is not counted towards the offensive line for those reasons. How did the Bucs fare?

Rank	Team	10+ Yards	League Avg
13	TB	18%	19%

Alright, our first ranking in the top 50% of the league! It comes in a category that I wouldn't have expected. While Earnest Graham is a good back, I certainly don't classify him as a breakaway threat. But with him being the primary ball carrier, we achieved a ranking in the top half of the league. While still a bit below league average, we can see that 18% of the Bucs yardage in the running game came from beyond 10 yards outside the line of scrimmage. To put it in context, the top team in 10+ Yards was Carolina with 27% and the lowest was Indianapolis with 9%. Those seem about right.

I'd expect that number to be a bit higher next year. With a dedication to the running game that we didn't see under Gruden, it should wear down defenses and allow for bigger gains. Most of Graham's long runs last year came in the 4th quarter and with Derrick Ward and Cadillac pitching in, the defense should be dead tired come the end of the game.

Let's get to the first metric where a lower number is better.

Stuffed

Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Carries for a loss are never a good thing. A running back falling forward, or getting back the LOS can sometimes be a great play, taking a 3 yard loss and turning it into a short gain. The "Stuffed" percentage is one you want to be low, or be at zero.

Rank	Team	Stuffed	League Avg
12	TB	17%	18%

Another good ranking for the Bucs. Opinion time. This would seem to be based on both the line's ability to at least get a hat on their guy, but also the decisiveness of Graham. As a one cut runner, he doesn't do a lot of dancing in the backfield, which (in theory) would diminish his chances for being hit in the backfield. The Bucs OL ranked in the top half of the league and even came in a bit better than league average. It's an interesting contract to the Power Success numbers. So while we aren't getting hit for a loss that often (in comparison to league average), we aren't converting the league average of short yardage situations.

Sack Rank

Sack Rate represents sacks divided by pass plays, which include passes, sacks, and aborted snaps. It is a better measure of pass blocking than total sacks because it takes into account how often an offense passes the ball. Adjusted Sack Rate adds adjustments for opponent quality, as well as down and distance (sacks are more common on third down, especially third-and-long). Sacks are just what you think, total number of sacks given up.

I'll do my best to translate here. The Sack Rank percentage will give us the adjusted percentage as to how often a sack occurs. To help better define this, let's look at an example. We'll look at Team A who passes more than normal (think Colts) and Team B who runs more than normal (think Ravens). Both teams give up 40 sacks. Sounds like it's pretty equal, right? Well, what if we add in that Team A had 600 drop backs (got sacked 6.6%) and the Team B only had 400 drop backs (sacked at a rate of 10%). I'd say that leads to a compelling conclusion that although the same number of sacks were given up, Team A's OL performed much better. That's just one of the factors that plays in, but you can see that number of sacks is not a truly defining measure.

Rank	Team	Sacks	Adj Sack Rank	NFL Sack Avg	NFL Adj Sack Avg
22	TB	36	7%	32	6.20%

A pretty disappointing number. Ranked 22nd in the league, the Bucs gave up 36 sacks compared to a league average of 32. "But I thought you said total sacks isn't a good measure of an OL?". You're right. Our Adjusted Sack Rate was 7%, meaning on 7% of drop backs we can expect a sack (based on a 30 drop back game, that equates to 2.1 sacks a game). The league average was 6.2%, so again, we were worse than average.

The highs and lows were as follows. High and Low total sacks given up goes to Giants/Pats with 12 and the Lions with 55. As far as Adjusted Sack Rate, the Broncos were tops at 2.8% with the Bengals last at 9.7%. Based on a 30 drop back day, that's a difference of 2 sacks a game. Pretty remarkable.

Alright, so we've looked at a variety of new stats that measure the offensive line. I'd say the numbers were a bit startling. How can our offensive line that is so young and so good (according to media) perform this poorly? Well, there are a couple of potential causes. Offensive scheme, play calling, injuries. Gruden was never much a running game guy and often abandoned it early. In 2008 we didn't have a great blocking fullback, our running back (Graham) while good is still not one of the elite runners, he was injured giving way to Warrick Dunn who definitely slowed down as the year went on and we weren't able to convert short yardage situations.

While this may lead you to want to jump off a bridge, you may want to hold up. The zone blocking scheme can be a great catalyst for our offensive line. The backs we have fit that system (one cut and go), we do have talented players on the offensive line, and we have now added another 1.5 backs to the stable (Ward and a Caddy/Clifton split). All things being equal, we should improve upon these numbers if Jagz and company stick to the gameplan.

Speaking of game plans, how did the Buc's offensive line do when running the ball in certain directions? This will all be based on ALY (explained up towards the top). We'll look at how they did running left or right, and end versus off tackle versus up the middle. We'll also take look into how often we ran in what direction.

We'll look at each split individually in terms of ALY and how often we ran that direction. First up, runs off left end.

Team	ALY	Rank	% of Runs
TB	2.16	30	7%
NFL	4.16	x	11%

Ugh. Running off left end was not kind to the Bucs offensive line. This would be in Donald Penn's direction and you can see, we not only ranked 30th in the league, we are a full 2 yards below average. The good news? We only ran off left end 7% of the time, far below league average. Maybe a sample size issue, but nonetheless, our runs off left end didn't end well.

Let's take a look at off tackle runs to the left side.

Team	ALY	Rank	% of Runs
TB	3.54	28	9%
NFL	4.18	x	14%

Again, well below average. Apparently running to the left wasn't a strong suit in 2008. We're about half a yard below average, though again, we ran to the left significantly less than the league average. It's tough to blame individuals based on these metrics as you don't know the outcome, but its safe to say Penn's side of the ball didn't hold up in the running game. I wonder if we ran less that way due to poor performance, or had poor performance due to running that way less. The chicken or the egg argument I suppose. Let's leave the left side and get to the runs off guard and to the middle. For clarification purposes, and per FootballOutsiders

research so far shows no statistically significant difference between how well a team performs on runs listed middle, left guard, and right guard

This just means that off guard runs are counted as runs up the middle for statistical purposes. Here are the numbers for "up the middle" runs.

Team	ALY	Rank	% of Runs
TB	4.35	9	66%
NFL	4.14	x	50%

Now we're talking. These runs would have been over Arron Sears, Jeff Faine, Jeremy Zuttah and Davin Joseph. The Adjusted Line Yards here show the line providing 4.35 yards per carry. Above league average, but it looks like this is where the majority of the runs took place. Can't say I see an issue with that. We hammered the ball up the middle and succeeded. The perception of those 3-4 players is that they are the strongest (or most skilled/complete players) on the offensive line, and their ALY does nothing to deter from that statement.

Well, we've seen success up the middle and we've seen some horrific numbers on the left side, how did the right side fare? Let's venture into Jeremy Trueblood's territory.

Team	ALY	Rank	% of Runs
TB	3.91	26	11%
NFL	4.1	x	14%

Back to being below average. It was a nice run while it lasted (bad pun intended). Going off right tackle, the line is averaging 3.91 yards per carry, about .2 yards below league average. At the bottom of the pack, again. We were close to league average in terms of number of runs off right tackle, but again, not quite evenly distributed with the league average. Any predictions on the right end runs?

Let's see if the pattern continues with runs to either direction not performing.


Team	ALY	Rank	% of Runs
TB	3.9	20	7%
NFL	3.9	x	10%

We hit the league average square on the nose, but still are in the bottom half. And again, we ran outside less than average. While not quite as bad as the left side, the runs to the right side were still below average and under that magical average of 4.08 ALY or YPC.

With virtually the same offensive line coming back and same backfield with more depth, this should be a good tool for the new offensive coordinator, Jeff Jagodzinski to look at. We will be going with a different blocking scheme (zone vs man), but the data seems to indicate that the strength of the line in the running game is up the middle.

So what did we learn? We definitely picked up some non-common metrics that can help us evaluate an offensive line's performance. On a team-centric basis, we see that in the passing game, we're giving up a sack about 7% of the time based on our offense (again, 2008 numbers). We saw that while the gross number of sacks was about in line with the NFL average, we were still giving up about 2.1 sacks a game based on offense, opponent, and other factors.

The running game, specifically the OL were a bit of a disappointment. The ALY was a touch below average, as was the power success rate, a number I fully expected to be in our favor. The Stuffed numbers showed that the Bucs OL and running game were better than average at getting hit in the backfield (in a good way) and the running backs, while capable of ripping off 10+ yard runs, still showed to be more of a ground and pound type system.

With a new scheme, new OC, new coach, a great addition in the backfield, and a healthy (crosses fingers) backfield and line, I expect us to improve in each category, across the board. The 2009 season is here, we'll keep an eye on these new metrics to see what changes are made and how they affect the team.

Draft Analysis: A look at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2008 NFL Draft

JScott — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 00:24:45 -0000

A review of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2008 NFL Draft Class:

1 (20) Aqib Talib, CB Starter

Aqib faired pretty well in his rookie season as he took over as the team’s primary nickel back. He finished the season tied with fellow CB Ronde Barber for the team lead in interceptions (4). With the emergence of KR Clifton Smith we never got to see Talib’s abilities on Special Teams, but the shear fact that he is slated to start opposite (or in place of) Ronde Barber speaks volumes for the type of athlete he will become for this defense. I still would have reached (or so they say) on WR DeSean Jackson if I were pulling the trigger last off-season, but Aqib Talib turned out to be a pretty safe bet.

2 (52) Dexter Jackson, WR Backup

DJax performed pretty well during the pre-season, gaining positive yardage whenever he took the field on offense (rare) and even notched an 83 yard punt return for a touchdown against the Texans. The regular season arrived however and DJax folded (literally). He would return a kickoff or punt and look to get down prior to the oncoming hit. He obviously doesn’t have a returner’s mindset to succeed in the NFL. The jury is still out on him being a bust as he was a WIDE RECEIVER in college, not a returner. So until he gets a fair shake in that regard, his evaluation will be a bit incomplete.

3 (83) Jeremy Zuttah, OG Backup

He filled in admirably for RG Davin Joseph to start the season. He also filled in when Arron Sears got a bit banged up. We got great value out of this pick and Zuttah will only improve with an eye on a starting job should someone go down. He played tackle sparingly in College, if he wants to start full time he may want to focus all of his energies there. Never-the-less he provides great depth.

4 (115) Dre Moore, DT Backup

I know everyone wants to point at Dexter Jackson, but this was probably the most disappointing pick of the draft. The Bucs actually traded up for Moore who ended up on the Practice Squad all season. He was a slow starter in college, so there’s still the chance he can make an impact. It’s going to be now or never though with New Defensive Coordinator Jim Bates schemes that should suite the oversized defensive tackle.

5 (160) Josh Johnson, QB Backup

He carried a clipboard the entire season. If the QB competition is truly that, a competition, we should really see a polished 2nd year QB give Luke McCown and Brian Griese a run for their money. He’s got the arm strength, accuracy, and mobility. More importantly he has the fan base behind him. Hopefully Jags gives him a fair shake this off-season.

6 (175) Geno Hayes, LB Starter-to-be

Much wasn’t expected out of Geno when he was drafted. Being a Seminole fan I wasn’t even excited about the pick (a 1 tackle performance against the Gators after running his mouth prior to the game will do that to a fan). He did impress throughout Training Camp and even had a splash play during the season when he blocked a punt. His season got shortened due to injury however. I would say he’s panned out thus far as a 6th round pick considering Cato June and Derrick Brooks got released in favor of his promotion. This season presents a ridiculous challenge for Geno.

7 (238) Cory Boyd, RB Released

The highlight of Boyd’s career, if you can call it one, was fighting with CB Aqib Talib at the NFL’s Rookie Symposium. We certainly didn’t need another RB last off-season so the cards were never in Cory’s favor to make the team. Such was the case as he got cut prior to the start of the Pre-Season. He's currently on the Broncos roster.

Jon Gruden and Bruce Allen have $45 Million in Salary Cap Space

JScott — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 12:00:06 -0000

Adam Schefter of NFL.com explains how the Buccaneers have $45 Million in Salary Cap space and how they might add to that number with salary cap adjustments and roster cuts. He then points out the key Free Agents the Bucs will have to wrestle other teams to retain: QBs Jeff Garcia and Luke McCown, WRs Antonio Bryant and Michael Clayton, and TE Jerramy Stevens. Excuse Adam if he mistakenly left out S Jermaine Phillips and FB B.J. Askew, they aren’t exactly house hold names.

Of these players who do you want the Bucs to invest that salary cap back into? Antonio Bryant? No doubt! At what number though? Three years at $6 million a season? Too much? Too little? What have you? How about Jermaine Phillips? A lot has been said about the Buccaneers lack of quality depth leading to their monumental collapse this season. Does Bruce Allen let Jermaine go, so that Sabby Piscitelli can man the position full time? Do you think Sabby is ready for that? How about Jerramy Stevens? Many feel Gruden didn’t utilize him enough or correctly, why retain him if that’s the case? That would be like bringing back Joey Galloway just to sit him on the sidelines.

Here’s my thoughts on Jeff Garcia: If you aren’t going to turn to Josh Johnson and let the team/fan base grow with him, you might as well bring Jeff Garcia back. #1 Luke McCown is not a viable option; the guy couldn’t beat out Brian Griese. That’s not to say Griese is bad, it’s to say McCown is incapable of leading this team. Simply put: Move on already. #2 There isn’t a single Free Agent QB worth the time and money (outside of Matt Cassell, who will be franchise tagged and cost at minimum two first round draft picks). #3 Any Free Agent QB that is brought in will have to learn Gruden’s system. Which is tough, Michael Bennett couldn’t do it, Dexter Jackson hasn’t been able to do it, and even Garcia was benched last season for reasons unknown to us. It’s not the ideal situation, as I feel Garcia has taken this team as far as he could in two seasons. It’s what’s in the cards however.

The next question is, what do the Bucs do with that Cap Space? Albert Haynesworth can go a long way in solidifying the defensive line with his gap clogging abilities and his ability to pressure the Quarterback. He would be the closest thing to Warren Sapp this fan base has seen, especially with his propensity to lose it (remember that head he stomped a few years ago?). You have to figure he would eat a large portion of the cap space literally and figuratively. Around $10-$15 million a season? Too much? Too less? What have you?

As much as I’d like to steal LB Channing Crowder from the Dolphins, Linebacker is the one position I feel the Bucs do have decent depth at so long as the guys stay healthy (McCoy, Hayes, and Black). With Ronde Barber nearing the end of his career, I would think 1st round draft pick, Aqib Talib would be capable of filling those shoes, maybe even as soon as next season. Have Ronde get in the Nickel and have Talib on the field full time. Raheem may even want to limit more of Ronde’s playing time. I wouldn’t, I think he just had a down year, a down year in which he almost led the team in interceptions.

We all know I’d much rather have Julius Peppers become a Buccaneer this off-season. Granted I’m a bit over the top in my fascination with the guy, but he’s clearly a Pro Bowl type player and potential hall of famer. He’s all but guaranteed to be franchise tagged though and we know the Bucs aren’t going to pay that guy any way. I would like to see the Bucs either prep Jeremy Zuttah (remember that guy?) to push Jeremy Trueblood or bring someone else in altogether to push Trueblood. As far as B.J. Askew, I’m on the fence. On one hand, the guy is a gamer and a rock solid producer. On the other hand, he’s rarely on the field due to injuries or he doesn’t get the necessary opportunities in short yardage situations to warrant being brought back. What have you?

What do you want to see take place this off-season with the Buccaneers and player movement? Who do you want to see return? What new blood would you inject into the team?