SB Nation - Xavier Adibi

Texans State of the Union: Defense

Jake — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 23:58:02 -0000

Three weeks ago the Texans were cruising. They were riding a three-game winning streak, and at 5-3 Houston was positioning themselves for a run at the post-season. Now after three divisional losses that were all squandered in the fourth quarter, the season seems lost for the Texans. Some have begun speculating that head coach Gary Kubiak will lose his job and the franchise will once again start over, while others have already started to focus on the pinnacle of the Texans' season (the draft), while another small contingent of fans cling to hope that the remaining soft schedule will allow the team to pull off a five game miracle finish to sneak into the playoffs.

The wide spectrum of feelings is understandable. The Texans have what is undoubtedly their best team ever, but despite that promise, they keep meandering around mediocrity. The game Sunday against the Colts is a perfect metaphor for the season. In the first half the Texans looked unstoppable on both sides of the ball, and then in the second half they didn't look like they belonged on the same field.

So what should we think of this colossally frustrating squad? I'm sure Tim will write a great breakdown on the train wreck for this weekend, so I want to cover what I think of the future, not just for the season but for next year as well. In an effort to break it up, I will start with the defense, then move on to the offense and finally look at the coaching staff.

Author's Note: Please don't consider this as me giving up on 2009. I will explain my opinion on what can and should be accomplished in the remaining five games, but I feel the near and far-term future go hand in hand so it's easier to explain it all at once.

The defense was the biggest focal point of the offseason. It didn't take a genius after 2008 to figure out that side of the ball needed more help. The vast majority of draft and free agent focus was spent on the defensive squad after Gary Kubiak went out on a limb to give longtime friend and colleague Fred Bush the defensive coordinator position despite having Bush no experience at that level.

- Defensive End:

- Antonio Smith has been worth the ransom we paid for him. He is one of the new additions that has created a mean streak that had been lacking last season. That emotion can be detrimental at times, but I think he is just one of those players who you have to take the occasional bone-headed play from along with his inspired ones. Smith has applied considerably more pressure than his 2 sacks suggest, and he also has been adept against the run.

- Mario Williams is seriously hurt, and his shoulder likely won't heal until the offseason. That's a shame too because he finally has a bookend supplying the kind of pressure Williams never had before when he was being singled out by protection schemes. One thing that still plagues Mario is his aggressiveness. Opponents continually allow him to rush straight into the backfield and then run the ball right by him. Williams is a gamer and will continue to give his best, but I don't think he will be back to regular form until next season, and there might even be a possibility of surgery following this year.

-Rookie Connor Barwin is just as raw as expected. His two sacks were the results of both speed and effort, which constitute the entirety of his pass rushing moves as of now. While some may argue that second round picks shouldn't be used on projects, the presence of Smith gives Barwin some time to learn his trade before he learns the tricks.

- Defensive Tackle:

- Amobi Okoye is not a bust, but he's not yet a Pro Bowler either. I'd like to think that he'll get to that level eventually, but at least he's showing that last year was more of a fluke than 2007 was. So far Amobi has been better against the run than I thought he'd be, but not as good at pressuring the quarterback as I'd expected.

- The Texans larger nose tackles have been decent to invisible, but out of Shaun Cody, Jeff Zgonina, DelJuan Robinson and Frank Okam, there isn't a single starting caliber player at the position.

- Linebacker:

- DeMeco Ryans is about as consistent as possible, which is key considering he plays a position which values that attribute above all others. Ryans isn't the type of player that will ever have an abundance of sexy stats like sacks or interceptions, but he can almost always be relied upon to know his assignments, lead the defense and plug the middle. Losing him would be an enormous blow because while he may not be the best defensive player, he is by far the defensive MVP.

- Brian Cushing has been just as good if not better than advertised. You can nitpick at his coverage technique but no player is perfect, especially a rookie. All bias aside, Cushing gets my early vote for Defensive Rookie of the Year because while Brian Orakpo has the sacks and Jairus Byrd has the interceptions; Cushing has shown the ability to do it all.

- Zac Diles has been decent at the WLB position but nothing earth shattering. Xavier Adibi has seen little of the field since his removal from the nickel package in favor of Cushing in Week Two. Both are serviceable, but added depth would be beneficial, although low, on the list of priorities.

Cornerback:

- Dunta Robinson is not a number one corner... period. I know he is still a fan favorite to some, but the tape doesn't lie--he is not good in coverage. Quick, without looking, how many pass interferences can you remember Dunta committing because he was burnt? Now how many touchdowns do remember getting thrown to his man? Now how many interceptions and pass breakups do you think he has? I will give it to him that he plays the run extremely well for a cornerback, but that's not why you pay $25 million dollars guaranteed. I would be shocked if he was re-franchised. Rick Smith won't pay him the kind of money he is looking for, so in all likelihood he has five games left in Houston.

- Glover Quin is the reason that Dunta is expendable. He plays the run just as well and in the same fashion that Dunta does. He would, however, be just as abused as Robinson if he was out in the position to cover number one wide receivers, as would Jacques Reeves. Both are pleasant surprises as a number two cornerback and nickel corner respectively, but that doesn't mean that they can move up the depth chart once Dunta leaves. A lack of a true good-to-elite cover corner is one the biggest problems for this team, and considering that they don't get to free agency very often, it will likely be a problem next year too. By the way, you might have been able to tell but I have written off both Fred Bennett and Antwaun Molden.

Safety:

- Bernard Pollard has changed this defense because of a mixture of good play on his part and complete lack thereof on all the other strong safeties prior to Pollard's assumption of the starting role. He is not a prototypical interchangeable safety that can cover deep just as well as he can play the run, but it is rare to find a safety so good at one discipline. I can understand Kansas City feeling that they didn't want to start him, but he has made them look terribly stupid for giving him an outright release. As long as he is paired with a good coverage free safety, Pollard is a huge asset against the run and I am just as in favor of re-signing him as Mike Kerns is.

- Eugene Wilson is a good coverage safety and plays well with Pollard. The problem is that Wilson has played all 16 games in just one of his 7 NFL seasons, which is probably the reason why the personnel savvy Patriots let him go. What amplifies this problem is that the depth at safety is probably the weakest throughout the entire team (offense and defense) as Dominique Barber and John Bushing are substandard.

Summation:

- After three games of sieve-like defense, Gary Kubiak was under fire for elevating Frank Bush to a position that he appeared to not be ready for. Since those first three games, however, the defense has outperformed the offense. During the four losses in the time period stated, the defense allowed an average of 12 second half points, which is counting the two pick-6 interceptions that Matt Schaub threw. These were all games that were winnable and while the defense is not without fault, the offense continually showed an inability to put games away.

- The defense's performance is admirable considering the lack of depth and talent at certain positions, and Frank Bush should be commended for it. Take for example the lack of talent at NT, which has allowed opposing quarterbacks to step up in the pocket even when pressure is being applied on the outside. To counter this, Bush has sent Cushing on blitzes, resulting in 1.5 sacks but also making the defense susceptible to outside runs as well as quarterback sneaks like what we saw against Tennessee. Another huge problem is the coverage. If zone coverage is called, tight ends like Dallas Clark and Vernon Davis eat the middle for lunch, but if you go with man coverage you either concede Dunta getting burnt or lose a player to continually helping him over the top. Both options allow for quarterbacks to know exactly where they can deliver the ball and thus avoid pressure with quick throws. It's a vicious cycle.

Future:

- This season looks good for the defense considering they face the 24th, 22nd, 21st, 12th, and 2nd (in a game that may not feature starters for too long) offenses in the remainder of the season. Not only are they unproductive, but many are one-dimensionally favored toward running, which is something the Texans have stopped lately, even if marginally so in a loss against a Titans squad that scored 20 points. I believe that DeMeco will go to another Pro Bowl, and Brian Cushing will be defensive ROY.

- The future looks bright for the Texans' D despite the current holes. Pollard, Okoye, Williams, Ryans and Cushing have all yet to play their fifth season, making the corps of the unit extremely young. Cornerback would be my first priority for the draft as it is not only the most glaring weakness but the position also typically takes at least a year or two before a player can rise to a great or even good status. Defensive Tackle and Safety are close behind with both being slightly less crucial because serviceable players currently fill those spots.

Take The Half-Season Poll: Most Disappointing Defensive Player For Your Houston Texans?

Tim — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 20:00:34 -0000

Two sides to every coin; we've already taken a look at the best, so now let's turn our attention to the other extreme. Which defensive player on the Texans has disappointed you the most thus far? Vote in the poll below and let us know why you voted the way you did in the Comments.

Poll

Who Has Been the Most Disappointing Player on the Texans' Defense Through Nine Games?

Mario Williams

101 votes

Antonio Smith

58 votes

Frank Okam

45 votes

Amobi Okoye

37 votes

Xavier Adibi

27 votes

Fred Bennett

135 votes

Jacques Reeves

6 votes

Dunta Robinson

155 votes

Connor Barwin

28 votes

DelJuan Robinson

7 votes

Dominique Barber

14 votes

Nick Ferguson

9 votes

622 votes | Poll has closed

Decision Day: 53-Man Roster Speculation

bigfatdrunk — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 14:13:47 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

3 months ago: Houston Texans' David Anderson (89) congratulates James Casey (86) after Casey's 11-yard touchdown catch from quarterback Rex Grossman during the second quarter of a preseason NFL football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, on Friday, Sept. 4, 2009, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

Browse more photos »

With cuts due by 3pm CDT (I believe, please correct me if I'm wrong), I wanted to pontifibate one last time on the 53-man roster. It's not going to be much different than my first take.

As a refresher, here's the composition of the Texans original 53-man roster last year:

2 QBs
3 RBs
1 FB
5 WRs
3 TEs
5 OTs
5 Gs (1 C/G)
1 C
3 Special Teamers (P, K, LS)
6 DEs
5 DTs
6 LBs
4 CBs
5 Ss

Again, there's substantial reason to believe the roster will be similarly composed. So here goes:

2 QBs: Matt Schaub and Dan Orlovsky
3 RBs: Steve Slaton, Chris Brown, Arian Foster (over Ryan Moats)
1 FB: Vonta Leach
5 WRs: Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Andre Davis, David Anderson, Jacoby Jones
3 TEs: Owen Daniels, James Casey, Anthony Hill
4 OTs: Duane Brown, Cliff Washburn, Eric Winston, Rashad Butler
5 OGs: Antoine Caldwell, Chester Pitts, Kasey Studdard, Mike Brisiel, Chris White. Last year, there were 5 OTs and 4 OGs.
1 C: Chris Myers
3 Special Teamers: P - Matt Turk, K - Kris Brown, LS - Clark Harris
5 DEs: Antonio Smith, Mario Williams, Connor Barwin, Tim Bulman, Jesse Nading
5 DTs: Amobi Okoye, DelJuan Robinson, Frank Okam, Shaun Cody, Jeff Zgonina
6 LBs: Zac Diles, Xavier Adibi, DeMeco Ryans, Brian Cushing, Buster Davis, Kevin Bentley
5 CBs: Jacques Reeves, Fred Bennett, Brice McCain, Glover Quin, Antwaun Molden
4 Ss: Dominique Barber, Eugene Wilson, Nick Ferguson, John Busing

Again, that leaves us with 52 of the 53 spots. I think it's going to come down to:

Rex Grossman: He'll be tough to cut after last night's performance.
Glenn Martinez: Was a fiend on special teams all preseason.
Joel Dreessen: Your basic, but very good, utility TE.

After Anthony Hill's performance last night, I believe Dreessen takes the last spot. While Casey needs some time to mature into the position, Hill is definitely not ready. Dreessen will be the steady hand.

As far as Grossman, I believe there's a chance he still makes the team over Jeff Zgonina. Kubiak hasn't shown any indication he's going to take three QBs, and after last night's game, he seemed pretty non-committal about keeping Rex. Personally, I don't believe Rex makes the team.

I'll be out of town when the cuts are made, but I'll be back this afternoon.

Plenty Of Reasons To Watch The Final Preseason Game

Mike Kerns — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 01:09:03 -0000

Quarterback Rex Grossman will play for the first time since pulling his hamstring on his first play from scrimmage against Kansas City on August 15th.

View full size photo »

I am usually the type that watches the final game of the preseason for a few series and then I am done. The starters are usually rested and we watch a bunch of guys play that will probably be working at Discount Tire by that time the following week. But this year, there are certainly some things to watch for.

First off, even though his status changes every five minutes, we could finally get to see first round draft choice Brian Cushing get some playing time Friday against Tampa Bay. The news from camp today was that he was on the field in pads and taking some contact. Some are anxious to get him out there and get him some time to pick up some of the scheme. Others, including me, think we should just rest him one more game and let him loose against the Jets in week 1. No need to rush him. I would hate to see him with that nagging injury all season. Even when his history shows that the chances of that are pretty high already.

Next, apparently Rex Grossman is all better and ready to play. Sweating a roster spot there, Rexy? Well, it’s not like Dan Orlovsky has been a world beater thus far. Rex has virtually zero chance of passing Dan-O on the depth chart, but if he plays well Friday I could see us carrying three QBs for the first time under the Kubiak Era. I’m not a big Grossman fan (who is?), but he is John Elway next to Alex Brink.

Arian Foster, who many people had penciled in as Slaton’s backup from the moment he was signed as an undrafted free agent, will get lots of time on the field Friday. Gary Kubiak was quoted as saying that Foster was "on the bubble." So Foster needs to do something worthwhile against the Bucs' third stringers to make the team. Right now he has to be behind Chris Brown and Ryan Moats. As well as Steve Slaton, of course. He has been banged up almost all preseason and that hasn’t helped his case to make the squad so far. I’d like to see him make the team, but he hasn’t really shown me anything yet. I’m anxious to see if he has any of that burst left that he had the season before his injury at Tennessee.

Then there is every Texans fan's apparent man crush (you know who you are!), James Casey. With Vonta Leach resting a bruised knee, "Thor" will see time at fullback Friday. It is a great opportunity to see his versatility and I am interested to see if they try a wildcat play or two. Doubtful, but it's fun to know that they have that option. And if you can’t try it in the preseason, when can you try it?

Add to all of this that I want to see if Dan Orlovsky can keep from turning the ball over for one game and to see how Xavier Adibi responds to losing his starting job to Zac Diles, and there are plenty of things to be watching for. Besides, what else you got to do on a Friday night?

Texans Name Zac Diles Starting Weakside Linebacker

Mike Kerns — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 16:31:41 -0000

View full size photo »

According to a league source, Zac Diles has beaten out Xavier Adibi and will be the starter on the weakside week 1 against the Jets.

When asked about Zac Diles play so far in the preseason, Head Coach Gary Kubiak was quoted as saying "Pretty darn well."

To me, this was expected after Adrian Peterson's 75 yard TD run on the very first play from scrimmage last Monday night.

bfd's First Take at the 53-Man Roster

bigfatdrunk — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 23:31:53 -0000

Great discussion last week on the possible composition of the 53-man roster started by Texans-Brocos. Here's my take with a little bit of background.

Last year, the Texans' opening roster consisted of:

2 QBs
3 RBs
1 FB
5 WRs
3 TEs
5 OTs
5 Gs (1 C/G)
1 C
3 Special Teamers (P, K, LS)
6 DEs
5 DTs
6 LBs
4 CBs
5 Ss

I think it's reasonable to believe the 2009 roster will be similarly composed. After last night's game, here's my guess as to how the 53-man is shaping up:

2 QBs: Matt Schaub and Dan Orlovsky
3 RBs: Steve Slaton, Chris Brown, Ryan Moats (depending on his injury)
1 FB: Vonta "Human Coke Machine" Leach
5 WRs: Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Andre Davis, David Anderson, Jacoby Jones (almost by default)
3 TEs: Owen Daniels, James Casey, Anthony Hill (no Joel Dreessen, which is our loss)
4 OTs: Duane Brown, Cliff Washburn, Eric Winston, Rashad Butler
5 OGs: Antoine Caldwell, Chester Pitts, Kasey Studdard, Mike Brisiel, Chris White. Last year, there were 5 OTs and 4 OGs.
1 C: Chris Myers (depending on his health, obviously)
3 Special Teamers: P - Matt Turk, K - Kris Brown, LS - Clark Harris
5 DEs: Antonio Smith, Mario Williams, Connor Barwin, Tim Bulman, Jesse Nading
5 DTs: Amobi Okoye, DelJuan Robinson, Frank Okam, Shaun Cody, Jeff Zgonina (no Travis Johnson)
6 LBs: Zac Diles, Xavier Adibi, DeMeco Ryans, Brian Cushing, Buster Davis (depending on Cato June's health), Kevin Bentley
5 CBs: Jacques Reeves, Fred Bennett, Brice McCain, Glover Quin, Antwaun Molden (no Dunta Robinson...just in case)
4 Ss: Dominique Barber, Eugene Wilson, Nick Ferguson, John Busing

Several differences from last year, though nothing crazy. Last year, we carried 6 DEs and 5 DTs, whereas I have us carrying 5 DEs this year. Sadly, I still have us carrying Jeff Zgonina as I just don't see anybody on the roster otherwise. There's the difference in OGs and OTs, and I have us keeping 5 CBs and 4 Ss, where that was swapped last year.

Also, and I doubt you noticed, but I have listed only 52 players for 2009. If Dunta signs, I do believe we'll keep 6 CBs on the roster as I believe the Texans, rightly so, would be afraid to release either McCain or Molden, who are the two I believe to be most on the bubble. I also believe that one of the CBs will be in line for a position change to S.

One guy who really intrigues me is Glenn Martinez, as he was the most "on" last night. He can return punts and kickoffs and looks like an excellent gunner on special teams. As I said in the game thread, he reminds me of Steve Tasker in the way he plays. There's a chance he overtakes Jones, but because we're carrying extra CBs, it'll make it tougher for Martinez to win a job.

What do y'all think?

A Defensive Adventure in 4-3 Under Minor

bigfatdrunk — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 00:47:10 -0000

Bill Kollar and Frank Bush having a laugh...via www.gonemovies.com.

While the fan club for my previous squishy post was rather....small, it and Jake's post on Bill Kollar really helped me put some things together, so to speak. Let's start with the conclusion: I'm not ready to chug the new system Kool Aid, and I think our defense is still gonna suck ass...just not as much ass. HERESY!!!

(For the record, drawing with a touchpad is hard)

For this post, I'm going to talk a little about our assumed new defense, the 4-3 under, our base personnel and base assignments (expanding just a bit on Riott's fantastic tour de force), and how it compares to last year. I might also use stats. Beer will be drunk. And there was much rejoicing (yay!).

LDE: 2009 - Antonio Smith. 2008 - Whatever sacks of poop we just happened to have lying around (oh, Earl Cochran, why did thou forsake me?). In the base scheme, the LDE is assigned to the strong side 5 gap (outside of the RT), with primary responsibility as a run-stopper. Last year, Smith played in the Cards' chameleon-esque system of 4-3/3-4, and he was highly credited with helping strengthen the Cards D, especially on the run. However, the raw numbers don't bear this out. In fact, Football Outsiders ranks....*gulps*...Anthony Weaver as a better run-stopper than Smith. I still think there'll be a substantial upgrade at LDE thanks to signing Smith, but it's not like we signed Julius Peppers. I'm tempering my expectations for Smith's performance. (Yes, I actually watch the effin' games, not just look at stats. Stats are a handy, non-emotional measuring stick, though far from perfect in a game like football. But they are what they are in this case.).

NT: 2009 - Oh dear Jeebus. 2008 - Former 1st round pick and Rhodes scholar Travis Johnson. Look, Travis plays his little retarded ass off, but he's a horrible fit for this system...or any NFL system, for that matter. He neither has the quickness nor size. In the 4-3 under, the NT is expected to tie up multiple blockers, allowing (effectively) the MLB and WLB to make tackles. The only player on the roster with the potential to remotely fill this role is Frank "Evil Genius" Okam. According to a friend who went to practice yesterday (Saturday), Okam was working out with the first team and was getting quite a bit of feedback, though not necessarily positive reinforcement. Neither is DelJuan Robinson the answer here, though he would be a far better choice than Trent Green's nemesis.

For the record, the girl in the LBD has awesome boobies. (Late note: Wow, super-MILF just walked in. I might need a moment.)

DT: 2009 - Amobi Okoye. 2008 - Amobi Okoye. It's hard to label 2009 a make or break year for Okoye, but it's at least time for him to nut up and do something. Unlike Johnson, Okoye has the speed to become a premier interior pass rusher while still being able to handle the run, his responsibilities in this system. I believe that, if there is one player most likely to take a step forward under Bush, it's Okoye. Penetrate, disrupt, penetrate.

RDE: Mario. Maul quarterbacks. Make Reggie Bust piss his pants. Eat LTs. Teams may be able to exploit Mario's outside pass rush tendencies. He will need to play with more discipline as he is responsible for outside rushing containment, but his role his to kill QBs.

SLB: 2009 - Brian Cushing. 2008 - Zac Diles. Looking at the raw stats, Diles was amazingly efficient at being around the ball last year as he ranked 5th for being in on team plays. Of course, that's largely a function of being toastified by opposing offenses at every possible occasion as he could neither stop the run nor the pass. With the power of hindsight, the first game against the BE-SFs was a horrible harbinger for the rest of his year. Outsourcing to Riott:

The number one reason why more teams don't run a 4-3 Under is the difficulty in finding a player good enough to play the SAM. He needs to be big, strong, fast, and able to cover or rush the passer at any given time. He lines up on the outside edge of the TE at all times, and harasses him off the line, never allowing a free release, staying underneath on routes because you have your safety over the top. He also gets one-on-one matchups on the outside to pass rush. I'll take Brian Cushing versus Dallas Clark, Bo Scaife, or Marcedes Lewis any day of the week. He needs to be a great run defender as well, because he CANNOT be reached, or there is a huge running lane to the strong side.

Let's put it more bluntly: A large measure of our defensive success is reliant upon...a rookie SLB who often played more like a defensive end and had trouble in coverage in college?

Look, this isn't to say that Cushing won't be good. Hell, anything's going to be a massive improvement over Zac Diles. But if there's any defensive position where it's easy to cover pure incompetence, it's SLB. Diles, I believe, proved that last year (remember when his injury was a "big blow?"). Rookies are always a massive wild card, and Cushing is no exception. For our defense to play at at least a moderate level, thus for the Texans to have a decent chance at the playoffs, we are putting a helluva lot of hope on Cushing's allegedly 'roided shoulders.

MLB: 2009 and 2008: DeMeco Ryans. DeMeco's role is to be a traditional, instinctive MLB...which, you know, shouldn't be much of a stretch. Football Outsiders has him ranked as pretty mediocre, and there may be an unfortunate amount of credence to that analysis. Ryans' ankle has given him trouble the past couple of years, but when he's fully healthy, this should be an excellent role for him. With the ankle problems, he has been noticeably slower.

WLB: 2009 - Xavier Adibi or Zac Diles. 2008 - The bones formerly known as Morlon Greenwood. Again outsourced to Riott:

Your weakside linebacker in the 4-3 under needs to be your fastest and best coverage linebacker as he is protected by the defensive lineman in front of him and therefore must be able to get anywhere on the field pretty darn quick. He has control of the backside A (1) gap, and will either shoot the gap on inside runs or scrape over on outside runs. If the play is to his side, he is the primary pursuit to the outside as well. On coverage situations, he generally plays short middle and helps out where he needs to be. Adibi, due to his speed and coverage skills, is a great WLB for the 4-3 Under. He will be allowed to make more plays because he will be harassed significantly less by offensive lineman.

In limited action, Adibi wasn't bad. But after Diles' injury (broken leg), it's imperative Adibi win that battle, as Diles will lose a step or two. More importantly, Adibi has the speed to fly around the field. I've got a feeling about Adibi, but health is a skill, and it's one Adibi has not displayed well.

As for Morlon's collapse from not-badness? I blame Matt. For the record, I also blame Matt for my impotence. Can I use that word here?

CBs: 2009 - Fred Bennett, Jacques Reeves, Dunta Robinson. 2008 - Fred Bennett, Jacques Reeves, Dunta Robinson, Petey Faggins. We don't have a great idea about coverage schemes, but it's likely to be simple with a focus on man coverage. Frenchy was one of the most targeted CBs in football last year, which is understandable as he was the worst CB not named Petey I saw in 2007, but he was solidly average. Twas a nice surprise, to say the least, and if we can get that guy a swivel for his neck, dare I say he might become above-average?

Dunta will likely be in the classic CB1 spot, but I don't think he deserves it. Yes, I should give him a mulligan for last year, but he was simply horrible. Bennett wasn't any better, but something tells me coaching and scheme are also to blame. Aside from Okoye, if there's somebody I expect to jump ahead thanks to the new coaching and scheme, it's Bennett. Overall, CB coverage will be simple.

Ss: 2009 - Nick Ferguson and Eugene Wilson. 2008 - Nick Ferguson and Eugene Wilson (Smoooooooove Will, we hardly knew you). Part 2 of my major pain points on the D. The safeties need to be fairly interchangeable in order to adapt to offensive schemes. As "well" as Wilson played for us last year, it's not entirely fair to have similar expectations for 2009. In many ways, it was a career statistical outlier (see also: Rosenfels 2007), and he really wasn't all that great anyway. As for Nick Ferguson, he was simply horrible, one of the worst safeties in the league, especially against the pass.

In the 4-3 under, both safeties need to be versatile, capable of handling both the run and pass. I have absolutely no faith we have a *safety* on our roster capable of handling these types of assignments.

We do, however, have two CBs who are mighty interesting candidates to do so. On that old, bloodied blog, I fantasized often about sliding Dunta to S, allowing him to use his range. Yes, he is under-sized, and he most certainly wouldn't be worth $10MM/year there, but it's an interesting possibility. The other is Glover Quin. Yes yes, the team wants him at CB and blah blah blah. Whatev. Like Dunta, Glover may not have the ideal size, but I'd prefer to have a couple of ballhawks at S rather than hitters. Maybe it's the whiplash speaking, seeing how we have had such a tendency to give up huge gains at will.

Summary: I'll go into more detail on specific assignments in the next post, but I've been working on this one for over two hours and I need more beer. Anyway, here's how I see things:

No true NT
Relying on a rookie at SLB
Major question mark at WLB
Safeties not reliable in this scheme

This is little different than before the draft. We addressed the issue at SLB, whether I like the pick or not. But we still have major, gaping holes at DT, possibly WLB, and at one, if not both, S positions. On the whole, we are returning eight of 11 starters last year (hopefully just seven). It's realistically unfair to expect substantial changes to our all-around performance, especially seeing how we are returning some really not so good players.

Scheme change or not, our best case scenario is we have the 17th best defense in the league. Best case. Most probable is we are still a mid-20s defense, capable of bipolar performance depending on the competition. It took the first game of last year's pre-season to see exactly how poor the D was. We may not have such insight this year (I hope, above all, we disguise our schemes until Week 1), but we will have a good idea of our talent.

Edit: I meant to, but forgot to mention, that I believe we'll see a ton of rotation throughout the season, especially on the D-line. It's something called depth, a pretty foreign concept around these parts.

Playoffs?!? You Want To Talk About Playoffs?!? - Part One: AFC

Ken Meringolo — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 14:15:08 -0000

I do want to talk about playoffs, Jim. The Baseball All-Star break is when I like to make my off-season NFL playoff predictions. Speaking of the mid-summer classic, can we just take a second and take note of the Home Run Derby? Was anyone else bored to tears? One contestant, Nelson Cruz, went 3 hours between swings. Things I could do in that time:

1) Have sex 5,786 times

2) Have 879 meaningful conversations with friends of mine
Me: "Dude."
Friend: "You too, dude."

3) Decide to get serious about dieting and exercise

4) Decide that "Organic" Cookies and Cream ice cream fits into my new dietary outlook

5) Scrap my new healthy outlook in favor of adding hot fudge, brownies and whipped cream to my "Organic" ice cream.

6) Piss off my wife no less than a dozen times
Wife: "What kind of game is this? Is the guy throwing the pitches trying to throw it hard? Why is that big net in front of the pitcher? And what is with all the kids on the field? Can't they get seriously injured? Why is that guy wiping the other guy's sweat off of his head?"
Me: "I'm sorry, did you just ask me a question?"

7) Conceive my 2009 NFL Playoff picture.

Much like the weather in the mid-Atlantic region at this time of year, the art of picking playoff teams in July is hot and sticky (assuming we don't live in Bizarro World where mid-July temps hit highs of 79,80 and 81 degrees.) You have to lean on a couple favorites. You have to lean on a couple head coaches. And you have to pick a couple of surprises. That said, my 2009 NFL Playoff predictions:

Let's start with the AFC. Keep in mind that the only thing more foolish than picking playoff teams right now is picking the order in which they will qualify (i.e. who has home-field advantage). OK, that's a lie...there are plenty of more foolish things and I have engaged in a good number of them, but for the purpose of this article, please treat the six teams from each conference as equal. If it helps, think of each team as a moderately attractive, disease-free girl that--after a few adult beverages--is indistinguishable from the group. You would be happy to take one home and would most likely consider beginning a potentially life-ruining relationship with any of them. We start with the favorites after the jump..

Favorites

Indianapolis: The loss of two coaches this off-season (offensive coordinator Tom Moore and offensive line coach Howard Mudd, click here for an older article talking about it) would be a bigger deal if they weren't going to be around at all. But it is possible/likely that they will assume "consultant" roles, offering a little bit of transition insurance. Besides, Peyton Manning is pretty much the de facto offensive coordinator anyway, right? Who is going to come in there and tell him how to run that offense? The last time I checked they weren't interviewing Steve Spurrier as the new offensive line coach, so they will probably have at least some quality pass protection in the game plan each week. Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez are top-notch wide receivers, and Dallas Clark continues to be a first-class pass-catching tight end. The offensive line continues to be anchored by one of the best centers in the league--Jeff Saturday--and the running back position is as solid as ever with Joseph Addai and rookie Donald Brown. On defense, they continue to boast a potent pass rush and with Bob Sanders on the field, they have a secondary with some bite.

Pittsburgh: I am not picking this team to win their division (see below), but I am picking them as a favorite to make the playoffs, because they just always seem to get there. I like their coach, Mike Tomlin, because he really seems to get the most out of his team and always appears to be in control of both himself and his sideline. His job is made easier by the presence of some veteran leadership on the field that often becomes the difference (in their favor of course) in close games. The defense plays an intense brand of football, led by Troy Polamalu and James Harrison. On offense, one could make the argument that Big Ben is to blame for at least half the times he is sacked, or that he can morph into Brett Favre sometimes and make bad decisions with the ball. But I am a firm believer that the most important stat for NFL quarterbacks is wins. He holds the career record as a starting QB in Pittsburgh franchise history, with a 59-22 record (.728 winning percentage). And he holds the NFL record for most wins as a starting quarterback in the first five seasons (regular season only) with 51 from 2004-2008. Predicting this team will go to the playoffs is like predicting Leonardo DiCaprio will bang a supermodel.

Head Coaches

Tennessee: Jeff Fisher is just about as lock-solid of a coach as there is in the league. He is entering his 14th season as the head coach of the Tennessee Titans franchise, holding the current mantle of longest tenured coach with one team among active coaches. His 120 wins there is a franchise record and his five playoff appearances over the last nine seasons is better than all but five teams in the whole league. With all due respect to the Steelers and Ravens, I think it is Jeff Fisher who molds the toughest team in the league each year. They know who they are (I usually hate it when people say this kind of thing, but this team embraces its identity on offense and defense) and the coach gets the credit for that. He has a keen awareness of what it takes to win, and he is not afraid to make a decision in pursuit of winning--like benching the young but unstable Vince Young in favor of the old and decrepit (yet sober) Kerry Collins, or dealing with the debacle of Pacman Jones. It doesn't hurt that his roster is plenty talented and that he is able to trot out a very special player in Chris Johnson in the backfield. Finally, he rocks a killer 'stache. Respect.

New England: You could argue that this team belongs in the Favorite category, but we might as well face the fact that this team is extremely well-coached (for anyone still in denial.) Bill Belichick has complied a 102-42 record in nine regular seasons. His Patriots teams are 14-3 in the playoffs and 3-1 in the Super Bowl. They only missed the playoffs last year on a tiebreaker, sitting home despite their 11-5 record. I don't see them going back-to-back seasons watching the postseason on TV. Tom Brady is back. Randy Moss and Wes Welker are basically unstoppable and their stable of running backs might be the envy of the league (seriously, read this list: Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patrick Pass). I personally like Green-Ellis and Pass a lot and chances are they may not even need them--until the playoffs. Does this remind you of another coach who always seemed to have some fresh legs for the postseason? Does Timmy Smith ring any bells? Belichick could lean on this group of running backs all the way to Miami this year. And the stupid part is that this offense is pretty much going to be based on Tom Brady airing it out to Moss, Welker and Ben Watson. And the rich get richer.

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San Diego: I simply can't stomach Norv Turner on TV in late December and January, but someone has to go to the playoffs from the AFC West. And come on...this roster should have gotten 14 wins last season. The Chargers are capable of it again this year. Norv will figure out a way to knock that down to 9 or 10...which will be good enough to win that division me thinks. God do I want to pick Kansas City here. Give Scott Pioli and the Todd Haley/Matt Cassell combo another year and time to grow and this team should be able to make some noise.

This leaves my two surprise teams duking it out for the last spot.

Surprise Contenders

Houston: TheTexans are a trendy pick this off-season I know. And they have let down a lot of prognosticators the last year or two after being picked to climb up from the cellar of the AFC. This year, I am a believer. I like what Gary Kubiak is doing down there on offense. Andre Johnson is probably the best wide receiver in the league, with all respect to Larry Fitzgerald. The dude can straight up dominate a game. This is despite teams doing everything in their power to keep Matt Schaub from getting him the ball (when Schaub is healthy, which he will be again at the outset of this season.) Steve Slaton and Chris Brown are more than serviceable in the backfield and they have quietly assembled a very sturdy offensive line. What I am really basing this pick on is defense though. I am going all in with these guys. I love their defensive line, with Mario Williams quickly becoming the class of his position. Their linebacking corps should be fast and mean, with DeMeco Ryans proving to be a force in the middle. Brian Cushing will start right away and Xavier Adibi looks set to hold down the other OLB spot. They also have Cato June and Buster Davis in the fold, giving them a formidable group. If the secondary can hold its own, they should get to playoffs for the first time...ever.

Cincinnati: I actually like this team to win the AFC North. From 4-11 to the division crown in the following year you ask? That is my bold prediction for the AFC (which really turns the wild-card race into a Houston vs. Pittsburgh competition then doesn't it?) If Carson Palmer can return to form--and it says here that he will--then this team will score plenty of points, and they will be able to do it against the defenses in their division and the rest of the AFC. Ocho Cinco and Lav Coles are a better than average WR duo and Chase Coffman could end up being the breakout rookie receiver this season (albeit at the tight end spot.) In Marvin Lewis, they have a defensive-minded coach that seems to be getting more comfortable with the personnel he has collected the last few years. It is a young group, featuring the return from season-ending injuries last year of Keith Rivers at OLB, and Johnathan Joseph at CB. Leon Hall has fallen into the trappings of being a Bengal, recently avoiding jail time in a drunken driving case by pleading to a reduced charge, but he is a very gifted young corner, and will factor into that defense this season in a major way--after whatever discipline comes his way from the Commissionator, Roger Goodell. Leap-frogging Pittsburgh and Baltimore is a daunting task, but I figure something like that happens every season, so I will pin my soothsaying reputation to the Bengals.

Come back tomorrow for the NFC playoff predictions.

(Images via www.1070thefan.com, steeshes.files.wordpress.com)

Why Connor Barwin Gets My Vote

Jake — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 14:00:24 -0000

Recently I asked who your favorite offseason signing was for the Houston Texans. Second round draft pick Connor Barwin received the majority of your votes with 33%. I would tend to agree that third of you, but not just for the possibility of sacks, although that thought does excite me. The thing that tips the scales in Connor’s favor for me is the buzzword that became close to cliché shortly after the Texans' draft; versatility.

Versatile is not an adjective that is usually assigned to defensive ends. Good defensive ends can usually shed blocks to combat against the run or beat blockers to sack the quarterback. Elite defensive ends (like this guy) can do both. While sometimes defensive ends like Dwight Freeney get pretty creative with pass rushing moves, there’s not a whole lot of versatility involved. So outside of a speed rush, why is it so great to get a defensive end that is as athletic and has such varied experience as Connor Barwin?

First year defensive coordinator Frank Bush has been pretty vocal about his defensive philosophy "attacking the ball", but he has very rarely given examples of specific schemes he intends on utilizing. Interviews with players and defensive assistant coaches yield only the repeated mantra of getting up the field and attacking. While this is music to the ears of a fan base that saw very little play that could be construed as anything close to attacking under former defensive coordinator Richard Smith, the desire to understand exactly what Bush has in store for the 22nd ranked defense in 2008 is substantial.

What we know about Bush is that he is a linebacker at heart. He played the position for the Houston Oilers for two seasons before a spinal injury forced him into early retirement at which point he began a career in coaching after a short stint as a college scout. Over the last seventeen years of coaching in the NFL, Bush has spent ten of those seasons coaching specifically linebackers. So it is only fitting that the first defensive selection that Bush made as a coordinator would be on a linebacker.

Whether you believe in Brian Cushing or not, it’s hard to argue that the linebacker corps has ever been deeper for the young franchise in the Bayou City. As noted before, one of the biggest questions of training camp will be to determine who the starting weak side linebacker will be between Xavier Adibi and Zach Diles. The kind of depth to inspire position battles is not a usual occurrence for the Texans; their problems have been historically much worse at this time of year.

Connor Barwin is so athletic that many had projected him to play linebacker in the NFL for a team that utilizes the 3-4 scheme. His small stature for a traditional 4-3 NFL defensive end aided the notion that Barwin was destined to play standing up at the next level. The fact that Barwin was a career tight end prior to his senior year at defensive end made the idea even more logical because his experience would enable him to cover in space more effectively. It was a surprise to many that Barwin not only fell to midway through the second round but also that he was eventually taken by the Texans.

Many, including Matt, were worried that selecting Barwin right after Cushing was a sign that Houston could be switching back to a 3-4. I have to admit that the thought crossed my mind as well, but this was more of an exercise of rationalization. Gary Kubiak and Frank Bush quickly let it be known, however, that the team would stay with its current scheme and that Barwin would be playing as a traditional 4-3 defensive end.

So how does a coach like Bush best exploit such a unique set of skills like those of Barwin without transitioning him into a linebacker? In an interview given on May 6th, Frank Bush stated that Barwin’s presence specifically allowed the Texans to implement a zone-dog blitz scheme. This is (to my knowledge) the only mentioning of specific schemes that Bush has made.

The zone-dog blitz in a 4-3 scheme drops one of the defensive ends into coverage while either one or a combination of two linebackers blitz. Any of the three linebackers, the Sam (strong side) the Will (weak side) or the Mike (middle), can be brought on the blitz. The four defensive backs fall into a zone coverage along the sidelines and deep, while the non-rushing defensive end and the remaining linebacker(s) cover any underneath routes.

The basic purpose of the scheme is to confuse the offensive line so that they will not be able to properly execute their blocking assignments. Think of Pittsburgh’s defense last year; they very rarely brought more than five rushers and often only brought four, but they were so unpredictable that they gave offenses fits. The three remaining defensive lineman commonly stunt during the blitz to further this confusion and open up lanes for the blitzing linebackers

The zone-dog makes perfect sense for a team with an athletic, talented linebacker corps. It allows the defense to take advantage of speed, something the Texans’ linebackers have in spades. The zone coverage also helps the secondary as they don’t have to turn their heads (cough*Jacques Reeves*cough) so they can break on the ball when it is thrown. This allows for easier handling of crossing routes and screen passes too.

This scheme can’t be done though without a defensive end like Barwin. When dropping into coverage, he would be required to cover a TE or make an open field tackle after a check down pass to the running back. That’s when 4.6 speed coupled with experience in open space comes in handy. Bush made mention that Antonio Smith is capable dropping into coverage like this as well, but you have to assume that Barwin would be much better suited for this role given his freakish athletic ability and his reputation for having a nonstop motor.

To say how often the zone-dog blitz will be used or how effective it will be would be nothing more than conjecture at this point. The mere possibility of its implementation, however, is something to get excited about. Since switching to a 4-3 in 2006, the Texans simply haven’t had any significant talent at defensive end besides Mario Williams who should never do anything but rush the passer. This coupled with lack of blitzing creativity that left the linebackers underutilized made our defense flat and predictable which translated into no pressure on the quarterback.

The presence of Barwin could go a long way to reversing this trend thus making the entire front seven better. Oh, he did lead the Big East last year with 12 sacks, so he might also help in the boring, non-versatile way of getting to the quarterback himself. I guess I’d be ok with that too.

Texans Down 'N Dirty: Twitter Edition

DreKeem — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 12:00:23 -0000

As curtisdisco mentioned in a fanpost, Xavier Adibi has bulked up to 240 pounds in an attempt to beat out Zac Diles for the starting weakside linebacker spot. One of the issues with Adibi coming out of college was his lack of size and it didn't help that he suffered a major illness before last season that caused him to lose even more weight. Before his season ending injury, Adibi's game weight was around 220 Ibs. It's nice to see the effort to improve from Adibi, but it's yet to be seen how the added bulk will affect his fluidity in coverage, which was an advantage he had over Diles last year.

Adibi also rightfully attributes much of the success of a linebacker to the play of the defensive tackles. It makes you appreciate even more the success of Demeco Ryans' rookie year, in which he compiled 156 total tackles playing alongside... bear with me, Lional Dalton, Thomas and Travis Johnson, Cedric Killings, and Anthony Maddox. Yikes. Good health and better inside play from the d-line should lead to a return to dominance for Demeco. Are you reading this, Rick Smith?

The Texans official site provides a nice interview with strong safety Dominique Barber. In it we once again see the obvious focus David Gibbs is putting on technique, which Jacque Reeves previously mentioned. Rest assured, it's a given that technique involves turning one's head around... we hope. Improved technique will certainly help the secondary, but improvements on the d-line should be an even bigger boost. It's also nice to see that veterans such as Nick Ferguson are really taking time out to teach young players such as Barber the guide to success in this league. You can't undermine the value of leadership from players such as Ferguson and Demeco. Are you reading this, Rick Smith?

The chronicle has implemented a feature that lets you access every snap taken by the Texans offense last year. I'm not sure what exactly this is useful for, but it's there for you to check out.

Chris over at HDH has put together another nice feature that allows you to follow Texans players through websites such as Facebook and Twitter. Andre Johnson's Twitter consists of a blank page. Go figure. If you know of any other players on these sites, go ahead and let Chris know in the comments section. I have one for you, Chris. Stanley McClover. Bet you forgot about him didn't you? Does he even count? Not surprisingly, the only image he could find of himself to put up is one of him getting absolutely no position on Steelers RT Willie Colon. Wait a second, McClover played a snap as a Texan!? Oh right, we lost that game 38-17.

Speaking of Twitter, it's interesting to check out the differences in personality between Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton. On Johnson's twitter, he eagerly states that "Smash and dash is having a divorce my new name is EVERY COACHES DREAM What u think bout that" and "Everybody last year football season will be my worst year. What about that". Slaton, on the other hand, calmly lets everyone know that he's "Relaxin on this beautiful night in the backyard. How your weather where you at? Are you enjoying the night?"