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Ten worst Buffalo Bills draft picks of the decade

Brian Galliford — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 14:10:28 -0000

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Yesterday, we talked about the ten best draft picks that the Buffalo Bills have made over the past decade. In order to complete our "[descriptive adjective] of the decade" series here, we've got to knock off the worst picks, too. This list can also be known as "why the Bills have sucked for a decade," but we're also hoping that one last vent session over these missed picks will be therapeutic as the franchise turns a new leaf - and a new decade - next month.

On to the list. Hope you can stomach it.

10. Josh Reed, WR, LSU (2002, Round 2, No. 36 overall)
Tom Donahoe's first draft as GM of the Bills, in 2001, netted some really good players. Nate Clements, Aaron Schobel and Travis Henry all made our "best of" list yesterday, and the Bills even got quality years and production out of third-round pick Jonas Jennings. 2002, however, was an epic flop, and Reed, the Bills' second-round pick (fourth overall in that round), was part of the reason why.

Drafted well ahead of his talent level thanks to a huge bowl game as a senior, the converted running back had a solid rookie season playing between Eric Moulds and Peerless Price on a very prolific Bills offense led by Drew Bledsoe. Then Price was shipped out of town, Reed became the starter, and his career has been incredibly average since then. This was the first in a long line of high-round luxury picks made by Donahoe that did not pan out, and obviously eventually cost Donahoe his job.

9. Chris Ellis, DE, Virginia Tech (2008, Round 3, No. 72 overall)
It's tough to put a player in his second year on this list (and we'll do it again soon), but Ellis is the poster child of several "good idea, bad philosophy/wrong player" picks that the Bills have made this decade. Picked when the Bills had a need to boost their pass rush, Ellis has seen extremely minimal playing time and barely made the roster in his second season. Unlike former second-round picks Schobel, Ryan Denney and Chris Kelsay, Ellis has not found any way to contribute to the team - and though it might still be too early to write him off, the Bills picked a project player with attitude issues in a season when they needed their high-round picks to produce.

8. Donte Whitner, S, Ohio State (2006, Round 1, No. 8 overall)
I suspect that most of you will want to see Whitner higher on this list, simply because the Bills passed on a dominant defensive lineman (Haloti Ngata) to get him. Philosophically, the pick makes at least some degree of sense; look at most of today's elite NFL teams, and you'll find an elite safety on the back end of the defense. Whitner, however, has failed to produce to the standards of a No. 8 overall pick thanks to his being shuffled from position-to-position and his own lack of elite playmaking ability. Whitner is a good player, which is why this pick doesn't rank much higher on the list. Philosophically, however, Buffalo erred here, and thus got the Dick Jauron era off to a not-so-hot start.

7. James Hardy, WR, Indiana (2008, Round 2, No. 41 overall)
Much like Ellis, I'm hesitant to put a second-year player on this list, particularly at the wide receiver position. I still very much believe that Hardy has what it takes to be a poor man's Plaxico Burress-type threat in this league, particularly in the red zone. He won't get the reps to do it any time soon, however.

This pick makes the list because philosophically, it was perhaps the worst team-building move the Bills made in the last half of the decade. Buffalo knew entering the '08 off-season that they needed a threat to complement Lee Evans and help develop young quarterback Trent Edwards. They courted veteran free agents like Bryant Johnson, but that didn't pan out, so they went to the draft and came away with... a tall receiver in need of an incredible amount of polish. Everyone knows that the bigger a rookie receiver, the longer it'll take to develop them. (Unless their surname is Fitzgerald or Johnson.) Hardy couldn't nail down a starting job, Edwards went into a shell thanks to a lack of weapons that he'd never re-emerge from, and the rest is history. Buffalo fixed the situation a year too late with the Terrell Owens signing.

6. Travares Tillman, S, Georgia Tech (2000, Round 2, No. 58 overall)
Tillman played in the NFL for quite a while. He made a nice living as a journeyman safety with some range and athletic ability, and he even picked off 3 passes with Miami in 2005. But you generally would like your second-round picks to spend more than two seasons with your team, which is exactly what Tillman did. He did not survive the regime change from Wade Phillips to Gregg Williams, and that's an indictment on the efforts of former GM John Butler in his last Bills draft class.

5. Roscoe Parrish, WR, Miami, FL (2005, Round 2, No. 55 overall)
Yikes. Without a first-round pick thanks to an epic draft-day blunder of a trade that we'll discuss a bit higher on this list, Donahoe, in his last draft as a Bills GM, chose the gadget player to rule all gadget players with Parrish as his top selection on the season. Parrish has had his moments with this team, and for a while, he was the NFL's best punt returner, setting career average records and putting the Bills in position to win a few games thanks to timely big returns. But Parrish was drafted to be much more than a punt returner; unfortunately, that's all the Bills have gotten.

4. John McCargo, DT, North Carolina State (2006, Round 1, No. 26 overall)
It'd be difficult for most teams to find a bigger first-round flop than McCargo in the past decade; unfortunately for the Bills, they have three bigger flops. Again, this was a case of the Bills taking a player far higher than his talent level indicated; the Bills desperately needed a starting defensive tackle that season, and the fact that they lucked into Kyle Williams four rounds later doesn't make this pick any less of a reach. Since this pick, McCargo has dealt with several small injuries, one major injury (a bulging disc in his back), been traded, had the trade negated, and toiled at the bottom of the Bills' depth chart. Not exactly what you'd like out of a first-round pick.

3. Erik Flowers, DE, Arizona State (2000, Round 1, No. 26 overall)
Butler's last draft featured Flowers as its centerpiece. Bruce Smith had left the team, and the Bills were searching for their next great pass rusher. Flowers didn't stick in Buffalo because Gregg Williams brought in a 4-3 defense that Flowers, a 3-4 pass rusher, did not fit into. But the four sacks that Flowers picked up in two seasons with Buffalo represent 80% of his career total of five, which he picked up in five NFL seasons.

2. J.P. Losman, QB, Tulane (2004, Round 1, No. 22 overall)
This, my friends, was Epic Fail No. 2. Drew Bledsoe had something left in the tank, and the Bills were pushing toward a playoff berth. They did, however, need a quarterback of the future, and then-head coach Mike Mularkey fell in love with the deep ball of a cocky kid from Tulane. Mularkey loved that deep ball so much that the Bills traded multiple picks to Dallas to move back into the first round to get their cocky kid quarterback. Two years later, Mularkey was gone, Losman had a flash-in-the-pan season under Dick Jauron, and then a Losman knee injury began the memorable Trent Edwards era. Now, Losman is attempting to get back into the NFL after leading the Las Vegas Locomotives to a UFL championship.

1. Mike Williams, OT, Texas (2002, Round 1, No. 4 overall)
It's tough to top Losman, but Williams found a way to do it. Williams is the poster child for terrible Bills drafting, and the centerpiece of the plethora of issues that got Donahoe fired. At the time, Williams was given the richest contract in franchise history, but to say that he never lived up to his potential would be a severe understatement. He spent four highly mediocre seasons as Buffalo's right tackle before lazy-ing himself out of the sport entirely; one of the very first actions Marv Levy took on this roster as GM was to cut Williams. Big Mike made a not-so-dramatic return to NFL football this season with Washington, and is now toiling in anonymity on one of the league's worst units that features another former Bill, Derrick Dockery.

Just click his name and take a gander at his picture to see just how far Williams' star has fallen.

Identifying the "crux players" on Buffalo's roster

Brian Galliford — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 17:00:30 -0000

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Two weeks ago - a day before the Buffalo Bills fired head coach Dick Jauron, in fact - we here at Buffalo Rumblings took a look at the core players of Buffalo's roster. The idea behind the post was to identify players that, based on their contract status with the franchise, are very likely to survive a regime change at One Bills Drive.

We'll recap the fruits of that labor quickly after the jump, but the purpose of this post is to take that exercise a step further. With the core players out of the way, it's time to look at the players that I'll term "crux players" - guys with flexible contract situations that will define a new regime's focus on re-building the Bills.

Core player recap
We named 17 current Bills as "core players," splitting the group up into vested veterans, young players with promise and role-playing veterans awaiting new roles once the regime change is complete. Of those 17 players, we defined a solid 9 as starting-caliber, a further six as fringe starters, and two as reserves. Here's that breakdown:

Starters: RB Fred Jackson, WR Lee Evans, G/C Eric Wood, DE Aaron Schobel, DT Marcus Stroud, LB Kawika Mitchell, CB Terrence McGee, FS Jairus Byrd, P Brian Moorman

Fringe starters: TE Shawn Nelson, OT Brad Butler, OG Andy Levitre, DE Aaron Maybin, DT Kyle Williams, CB Leodis McKelvin

Reserves: C/G Geoff Hangartner, DT Spencer Johnson

Keep in mind that all of these players are currently under contract through the end of the 2012 season. That means that, if each plays to the end of their contract, they'll be in Buffalo for another three years. The fact that each player has at least three years left on his deal at least ensures that they'll be part of the roster in Year 1 of a new regime, and many of them will be playing considerably large roles.

For this exercise, the criteria changes a bit. "Crux players," as far as we're concerned for now, are players that, once the 2009 season ends, will have either one or two years left on their current deal. Each is under contract for the 2010 season, but each also has a deal that makes it possible for a new regime to play football in 2010 without these players under contract. They are truly "crux" players in that a new regime will be making its most important decisions amongst this group. The entire new direction of the franchise from a personnel standpoint will be based largely on evaluations of these 19 players.

Keep in mind, also, that this list changes if 2010 is an uncapped year. Ask MattRichWarren about it.

Buffalo's 19 "crux players"
You'll have a task at the end of this exercise, but for now, here's a quick summary of the 19 crux players on Buffalo's roster:

Trent Edwards, QB - Signed through 2011. He's been benched and needs a new environment, but some talent remains.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB - Signed through 2012. Has proven to be reliable as a backup, but is not considered a franchise signal-caller.
Brian Brohm, QB - Signed through 2012. A project player with some solid tools, there's a chance he never sees the field for Buffalo.
Marshawn Lynch, RB - Signed through 2013, with an opt-out clause in the final year. No longer the starting running back, Lynch might be the subject of trade talks this off-season.
Corey McIntyre, FB - Signed through 2011. Run-of-the-mill player.
James Hardy, WR - Signed through 2012. Buffalo invested a second-round pick in him, and the talent is there, but Hardy has had injury issues and hasn't seen the field much.
Roscoe Parrish, WR - Signed through 2012. Has clamored for a trade, but a new regime might be inclined to keep him as a punt returner. Unlikely to get PT as a WR anywhere.
Steve Johnson, WR - Signed through 2012. Held in high regard by current regime, but that could change quickly, and doesn't carry the same investment as Hardy.
Derek Fine, TE - Signed through 2012. Probably survives a regime change because he's a role player with special teams ability.
Demetrius Bell, OT - Signed through 2012. Has struggled with injuries and on the playing field, but again, there is raw ability to work with.
Chris Kelsay, DE - Signed through 2011. A heady veteran who has improved under position coach Bob Sanders, but has a large salary that might seal his fate.
Chris Ellis, DE - Signed through 2012. Does not play a significant role now and that's not likely to change, but represents a significant investment ('08 third-round pick).
John McCargo, DT - Signed through 2011. Nothing more than a rotational tackle at this point in his disappointing career.
Paul Posluszny, LB - Signed through 2011. Sure to be the most intensely-debated player on this list.
Drayton Florence, CB - Signed through 2011. Has been excellent as a fill-in starter, and has scheme versatility.
Reggie Corner, CB - Signed through 2012. Reserve-type corner that has his uses, but should never be counted on as a starter.
Donte Whitner, S - Signed through 2011, with an opt-out clause in the final year. Could be a UFA as soon as this coming March. New regime might feel differently about him.
John Wendling, S - Signed through 2011. Special teams player only.
Rian Lindell, K - Signed through 2012. Reliable and gets more consistent with age.

Your Task
There's your list, folks. Some of those names obviously carry much more weight and importance than others. Your task: pick out the players that you believe are worth keeping around. Then, of those names, split them into starters and reserves. Combined with your input from the original post, this should really cement your ideas about where you'd take the franchise if you were GM.

Keys to Victory: Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans

Kurupt — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 13:13:19 -0000

The Buffalo Bills head down to Tennessee to face the Titans in a Week 10 matchup of teams trying to stay in the periphery of the playoff race. The Bills are coming off their bye week, while the Titans are coming off a nice road victory in San Francisco.

These two teams have some similarities, mainly poor defenses and quarterback deficiencies, though the Titans are showing signs of life that the Bills have yet to show this season. Tennessee features the NFL's leading rusher in second year RB Chris Johnson, and possesses many of the same pieces of a team that racked up 13 wins last year. The Bills, meanwhile, continue to struggle on both sides of the ball, but will see the return of quarterback Trent Edwards this weekend. It may not be a big factor in this game, but Edwards' return could provide a momentary jolt of energy in the lifeless Bills' offense.

As always, it won't be easy for the Bills, but this is a very winnable game if they can key on a few important aspects against the Titans.

Protect Edwards: The last thing the Bills offense wants or needs is to let Edwards get beat up, again. The offensive line will be as healthy as its been since Week 3, and are coming off a much needed bye week. With some fine tuning, we might actually see some improvement from this unit. Where it matters most is keeping Edwards upright and giving him time to succeed. Most of us believe Edwards will be playing out the string as the Bills starting quarterback over the final half of the season, but a strong finish could prove to the new regime that he is worth keeping around. I'd like to see him at least get the chance to put it together over the final 8 games instead of constantly running for his life. Let's at least see some excitement out of the passing game, or maybe just the chance that that could happen. Edwards also needs to let it rip and play a completely different brand of football from what he's used to. Maybe some protection will give him the confidence to do that. We can hope, can't we?

Get the ground game going: The Titans run defense has really struggled lately, allowing 162.5 yards per game, 9.0 yards per carry and 3 touchdowns in their past two games. Again, the offensive line could be in for a slight improvement in this area, which could open up things for Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson more than usual. The Bills need to keep Chris Johnson off the field. The best way to do that is by controlling the ball and moving the chains. We saw an improvement in the Bills rushing offense over the second half of the season, last year, so let's hope for a nice repeat.

Utilize the RB's in the passing game again: In the three games that Trent Edwards was out (I'm including the Jets game), Lynch and Jackson combined for just six catches, all by Lynch. Prior to that, they combined for 31 receptions in five games, even with Lynch missing three games. Since it's been a struggle to run the ball, getting these guys the ball on the outside with more room to run could help the team move the chains much better than they have been. Jackson, in particular, needs to be integrated into the offensive gameplan more than he has recently.

Slow the speedy Johnson: That's what she said. It's going to be a chore for the Bills to even keep Chris Johnson under 150 yards this week. Buffalo's run defense is dead last in the league, allowing 173.6 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. Johnson is averaging 120 yards per game, and a stunning 6.7 yards per carry. This matchup looks as lopsided as they get. The Bills aren't going to shut Johnson down, but they can slow him and limit the big plays. If they can avoid allowing the 50+ yarders that Johnson is known for, and keep him relatively in check, they'll have a good chance in this game. But if Johnson has another monster game (think 200+ yards and 2+ TD's), I'm not sure the Bills can win this game.

Force Vince Young to make plays: I mean with his arm. Young has completed 27 of 37 passes for 297 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions. That's a pretty solid game. Oh, that's over two games. It's obvious that the Titans have taken the pressure off of Young by running the ball so well with Johnson. Young hasn't needed to make many tough throws or pressure packed passes since he rejoined the starting lineup. That needs to change this week. Over the years, Young has proven to be a well below average passer, as evident by his career 69.5 QB rating. Forcing him to beat the Bills through the air is much easier said than done, but would go a long way towards picking up a road W this week.

Keep Young in the pocket: In addition to forcing Young to make plays, it'll be imperative to keep him in the pocket. His best attribute might be his ability to improvise and makes things happen with his legs. Young has hurt the Bills with his legs in the past, so this will definitely be one are the defense is keying on. He has completed just 57% of his passes during his career. Keeping him in the pocket and forcing him to throw instead of run favors the Bills, heavily. Plus, this will give Jairus Byrd more opportunities to extend his streak of multiple interception games!

Get the young player more playing time: Steve Johnson, James Hardy, Shawn Nelson, Nic Harris and even Chris Ellis and Ellis Lankster would all benefit greatly from increased playing time as the season continues. With the team hanging on for dear life in the playoff race, the time is pretty much there to start preparing for next year, even if this staff won't be here. Let's hope they understand the importance of playing these guys instead of wasting them on the sidelines.

Improve, improve, improve: Coming off the bye week, there is no reason this team shouldn't come out prepared and better than the last time we saw them. They're healthier, they were able to get much needed practice reps and they were able to gameplan for two weeks for this game. This has to be the game where the offense shows some signs of life, right? If not, I doubt we see much more from that unit this year....

*******

The Bills face the tough task of shutting down Chris Johnson while getting their own offense going this week. It's another winnable game that the Bills must find ways to make plays. An entire team effort will be required in this one. Let's go Buffalo, and enjoy all the games this weekend!

Playoffs or not, Bills have much to learn post-bye

Brian Galliford — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:04:49 -0000

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The Buffalo Bills are 3-5, and as they enjoy their last weekend off until their 2009 season comes to a close - whenever that may be - it's time for us fans to stop reflecting on what they've done through the first half of the season and to start discussing what we might learn over the next eight weeks.

Clearly, the big questions in Buffalo remain the coaching situation - which is probably tied directly to the outcome of the season - and the quarterback position, which we've discussed very thoroughly over the last couple of days. But from a player personnel standpoint, there is still plenty of progress to be made for several young players. What follows is a breakdown of Bills players with the most to gain, most to lose, and those waiting for some developments to unfold.

Three Bills with the most to gain developmentally
Demetrius Bell. Buffalo's starting left tackle has had his share of struggles early in his career, particularly with consistency (which isn't a surprise) and mistakes (which are incredibly irritating). He's cleaned up his act in the latter department in recent weeks, and it's therefore not impossible to think he can work out some consistency issues over the next eight games, too. No one denies that Bell has solid talent. If he proves he can play left tackle in this league, that's one less major issue the Bills will need to address in the off-season.

Aaron Maybin. I've preached patience in regards to Maybin, and even though that argument is nearly universally accepted, fans still don't like the pick because Maybin's rookie contributions have been minimal. Depending on how the rest of the season goes, however, there's a strong chance Maybin's playing time could increase as the season progresses, particularly as he's already starting to see a few more snaps per game. Again - this is a player whose talent is undeniable. If he starts producing in the second half of the season, the minds of a large number of fans will be put at ease.

Jairus Byrd. Yes, he's been Buffalo's MVP through the first half of the season, thanks to his league-leading seven interceptions. He's a leading candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year. But he's not a complete, two-dimensional safety yet. If his groin injury doesn't hamper him over the next two months, Byrd has a chance to gain a ton of starting experience and develop his tackling skills. The more he plays, the closer he comes to becoming an all-around playmaker, and if that happens, he could be considered one of the elite defensive backs in the NFL.

Three Bills with the most to gain if they're on tape for a new coaching staff
Trent Edwards. That one's pretty obvious. He's a young player that has some talent, and he's shown (very occasional) flashes of competence at the game's most important position. If a new coaching staff is in Buffalo in 2010, that staff's most important decision will be centered around what to do at quarterback. A strong finish to this season could help Edwards survive a regime change. Of course, it could also help save his current coach's job, as well.

Paul Posluszny. The completely unbiased view of Posluszny outside of Buffalo right now is as follows: perfect teammate, tremendous competitor with leadership skills and smarts, limited playmaker and an injury risk. He might be playing out of position as well, and is this kid's ceiling as high as originally thought? Like Edwards, Poz isn't going to be leaving Buffalo any time soon, but if he wants to remain this team's starting middle linebacker through next off-season, he needs to close this season well.

Donte Whitner. He's missed at least one game in each of his four pro seasons, including four of the Bills' first eight games this season. Prior to his departure from the lineup, Whitner was playing at the highest level of his career - but as he's missed time, Byrd has established himself as one of the elite young defensive backs in the NFL. Whitner has been a team captain, but he's not anymore. His production remains an issue, even if his versatility remains a tremendous asset to this team. Again - he won't be going anywhere any time soon, but he's got a lot to prove if he's to remain a key part of Buffalo's defense through a regime change.

Three Bills playing out the string
Roscoe Parrish. He's been relegated to third quarterback duties, and there's a chance he could be released when the team activates James Hardy from the PUP list. One of the elite punt returners in NFL history, Parrish has worn out his welcome in Buffalo thanks to a mistake-prone 2009 season and his inability to learn the Bills' offense.

Chris Ellis. A third-round pick in 2008, Ellis had a quiet rookie season and, thanks to the presence of three veterans and Maybin, hasn't had much opportunity this year, either - he's been active just once. He barely hung on to a roster spot as it was, and did so only after a strong pre-season. Unless a veteran or two leaves and the coaching staff remains intact, Ellis is unlikely to get his career started in Buffalo.

John McCargo. He's been hurt, ineffective, traded, and returned to the Bills over the past couple of seasons. He is the only Bills defensive tackle that doesn't have a contract that expires in the 2013 season - and the Bills could use additional beef at that position. Add it all up, and McCargo is probably done in Buffalo after this season ends.

Three Bills pondering future roles with the club
Brad Butler. He started the season off relatively well at right tackle, but now he's on IR, and Buffalo's offensive line is a mess. A new regime would almost certainly address the O-Line, and particularly each tackle position, but Butler also has a contract that expires in 2013. He'll be in Buffalo for a while - the question is simply where he'll be playing, and whether or not he'll be starting.

Eric Wood. Again, Wood's not going anywhere soon - the only Bills locked up as far into the future as Wood is are WR Lee Evans, DE Aaron Schobel and Maybin. But most NFL personnel executives saw Wood as a pure center prospect entering the 2009 NFL Draft. Obviously, he's playing guard in Buffalo. I, for one, would support the move, but Wood needs to put good tape together so a new regime - or even the current regime - wises up and puts him at center.

Leodis McKelvin. He had a so-so rookie campaign, and to say the start of his 2009 season was disastrous would be a monumental understatement. Now he, too, is on IR, and Buffalo's secondary is getting along swimmingly without him. CB Drayton Florence has filled in admirably in his stead; his play has been so good, in fact, that if it continues, McKelvin may not regain his starting role in 2010.

Three Bills free agents waiting on tenterhooks
Terrell Owens. T.O. is in a tricky position. His numbers are so far down that it seems unlikely that many teams will be interested in him as a UFA in 2010, even if he's been on his best behavior as a Bill. Then again, he's unlikely to stay in Buffalo beyond this season if Dick Jauron is let go. Owens has eight more games in Buffalo, and then it's anyone's guess what happens from there.

Ryan Denney. People tend to grossly underestimate just how valuable Denney is to this team. He gives the Bills quality reps as a rotational defensive lineman - at both tackle and end, by the way - and he's been one of Bobby April's key special teams players throughout his career. He's scheduled for free agency after the season, however, and the Bills have serious investments in Schobel, Maybin and even DE Chris Kelsay. Particularly if Jauron leaves, but even if he doesn't, he could be looking for a new home.

Keith Ellison. He's currently fourth in the NFL with 68 tackles, and he's clearly having his best season as a pro. He's been an incredibly valuable commodity to Perry Fewell, as he has played all three linebacker spots - strong, middle, weak - as the Bills have dealt with ridiculous injuries and shake-ups at the position. But he also has his limitations, and while the Bills have been able to scheme around them, a new regime might not view Ellison in quite the same light. He'll be a UFA as well (though if there's no new CBA, he'll be an RFA), and like many players, Ellison's Bills fate may be tied directly to his play the rest of the season as well as the fate of the coaching staff.

Whitner, Scott out; Bell, Byrd probable for Browns game

Brian Galliford — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:15:09 -0000

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The Buffalo Bills will again be depleted in their defensive secondary for a regular season game, but will get their starting left tackle back in time for the Cleveland Browns.

Starting safeties Donte Whitner (thumb) and Bryan Scott (ankle) will each miss their second consecutive game, as both have been ruled out for the Bills' upcoming matchup with the Cleveland Browns, reports The Buffalo News. Also listed as out are defensive end Chris Ellis (death in the family) and linebacker Paul Posluszny (arm).

The good news is that starting left tackle Demetrius Bell - who missed last week's loss to Miami with a groin injury - practiced all week and is listed as probable for the Browns game. Joining him is free safety Jairus Byrd, who has been dealing with a hip injury. Terrence McGee had some mild knee soreness during the week, but will play on Sunday. He, too, is probable. One more for the probable list: defensive tackle John McCargo (calf) is set to return to the lineup.

Cornerback Ellis Lankster (back spasms) is listed as questionable. Should he miss the game, Buffalo will take the field Sunday with four healthy corners and three healthy safeties.

Bills' defensive ends face stiff challenge Sunday

Brian Galliford — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 16:45:09 -0000

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The Buffalo Bills were bad at the defensive end position in 2008. Aaron Schobel was lost for most of the season with a foot injury, and reserves such as Chris Ellis (who saw very limited action) and the now-departed Copeland Bryan were not able to keep starters Ryan Denney and Chris Kelsay fresh. With that in mind, Buffalo used its first-round selection in this past April's NFL Draft on Penn State end Aaron Maybin. With Schobel's return to health, the Bills would once again have depth at the position.

Through two games, that depth has been apparent - Bills ends are staying fresh into the fourth quarter, and though their production has not yet hit a point where they're revered league-wide (by any means), they are a far more active group than they were in 2008. That's a start - but clearly, it's not enough for a Bills defense that, based on the type of scheme they play, need as much pass rush from their front four as they can muster.

The "start" of the season is over. In case you hadn't heard, Drew Brees and his high-scoring New Orleans Saints are coming to town, and if the Bills are to pick up a win, they'll need to show at least a small degree of competency in slowing that offense down. These Bills defensive ends have a tall task ahead of them on Sunday, as Buffalo's No. 28-ranked defense tries to slow down a team putting up 46 points per game.

Bills ends through two games
Health and energy only get you so far in this league. Through two games, Buffalo's ends have picked up two sacks (one each to Schobel and Denney) and an interception return for a touchdown (from Schobel). The top four ends - Schobel, Kelsay, Denney and Maybin - have combined for 11 tackles in two games.

The low statistical output, particularly in the tackling department, isn't overly surprising - opposing teams have thrown over 100 passes in those two games, and while you'd like to see more sacks, certainly, the lack of tackles is hardly alarming. If you're picking a word to describe the ends collectively rushing the passer, however, it's "inconsistent." On the occasions when they're able to generate significant heat on the passer - and it's more often than most of us realize, by the way - the ball is generally out before the end has an opportunity to make an impact play.

Impact plays are needed from this defense. They have come in the team's first two games despite any flashes of dominance from these defensive ends. They'll be harder to come by with Brees on the field.

A quick glance at New Orleans
Over the past two seasons, Brees has been one of the least-sacked quarterbacks in the NFL. In fact, he's thrown more interceptions (35) in those two seasons than he's been sacked (29 times). Thus far this season, he's thrown two interceptions and been sacked twice.

New Orleans is currently playing without stud left tackle Jammal Brown, who is nursing a hip injury. His backup, Jermon Bushrod, has performed admirably in his stead, however - just last week, he did a nice job against Eagles DE Trent Cole, although Cole did pick up his second sack of the season in the loss. Right tackle Jon Stinchcomb is as solid as they come. Getting to Brees is going to be difficult, most particularly because Brees is super-efficient reading defenses and getting rid of the football.

Sacks aren't likely on Sunday. But Bushrod isn't proven to the point where it's impossible for the Bills to, at a minimum, fluster Brees and force him to make a mistake or two. Considering Brees' strengths, a heavy dose of blitzing, such as we saw the Bills employ against Tampa Bay, is not likely. But we can't get away without getting some pressure on Brees. It'll be on this healthy, fresh defensive end group to pick up their game. Without steady play from this group, it could wind up being a totrurously long day in Orchard Park this Sunday.

Defining the Buffalo Bills' roster bubble players

Brian Galliford — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 20:00:24 -0000

For one last time, at least for another year or so, we're about to talk about the roster bubble. It's pretty difficult to define a roster bubble, particularly if you're nerdy enough - like yours truly - to project an NFL's 53-man roster obsessively until your thoughts are no longer relevant.

Heading into their pre-season finale, the Buffalo Bills (and more particularly, its coaching staff) very likely has their final 53 already selected. For fans, however, speculation rules the day this time of the year. This post is meant to do three things: define Buffalo's list of "bubble" players, force you to pay attention to those bubble players, and serve as one last spot for y'all to formulate your thoughts before tomorrow's "Buffalo Rumblings Roster Projection Contest" begins.

Staying with the team, but they don't count yet (2)
RB Marshawn Lynch (Reserve/Suspended) - Lynch probably won't play tonight, and he begins his three-game suspension on Saturday.
WR James Hardy (Physically Unable to Perform) - Right now, Hardy is on Active PUP, meaning that he counts against the active roster, and that he can be activated at any time. Active PUP ends when the pre-season ends. It's very likely the coaches will give Hardy an extra six weeks to get into football shape and all healed up by placing him on Reserve PUP.

With those two moves in mind, the Bills will have 72 active players. That list, obviously, needs to be whittled down to 53 - so 19 more must go.

Certain cuts (11)
Let's face it - if any of these eleven players make the roster, every single one of us will be floored.

QB Matt Baker, RB Bruce Hall, WR Felton Huggins, WR C.J. Hawthorne, TE Tyson DeVree, OT Nick Hennessey, C Christian Gaddis, DE Ataefiok Etukeren, DT Derrick Jones, DT Corey Mace, LB Ryan Manalac

That list puts us down to 61 players. We've now officially reached the bubble portion of our roster.

THE BUBBLE (15)
I've got 15 players listed as "on the bubble." All of these players have at least something going for them that could keep them on the roster through the weekend. By current math, eight of these players will make the final roster, while seven will try to latch on with other NFL teams.

RB Xavier Omon, FB Corey McIntyre, WR Justin Jenkins, TE Jonathan Stupar, OT Jonathan Scott, OG Brandon Rodd, DE Chris Ellis, DE Copeland Bryan, LB Marcus Buggs, LB Jon Corto, LB Alvin Bowen, LB Ashlee Palmer, CB Cary Harris, FS Ko Simpson, SS John Wendling

Picking eight of these names as keepers may seem easy, but it's made a bit more difficult by potential surprises. We've got four such scenarios below. For every scenario that comes to fruition below (and we're not saying any of them will), pick another name from the above list and toss it onto your final roster.

Surprise cuts/roster decisions (4)
TE Derek Fine - He's dealing with a hamstring issue, and to say the competition at tight end is heavy is an understatement. It wouldn't completely shock us to see him released, even after being a 2008 fourth-round draft pick.

OT Langston Walker - WGR 550 reporter Paul Hamilton is already on the record as saying Walker could be a surprise release. I'm not sure I buy that, particularly given Demetrius Bell's bad back, but Walker's apparent fall from grace seems legitimate. I can't fathom a scenario in which the Bills would be comfortable entering a season with three highly unproven tackles - but in the spirit of "it wouldn't shock me," we'll list Walker anyways.

DE Ryan Denney - The Bills, for the first time in what seems like forever, actually have some depth at the defensive end position. They've got three young ends - two listed on the bubble above - that have proven worthy of roster consideration. It's difficult to imagine the team cutting Denney, but it's not impossible. They could also dangle him in trade talks if they try, as some suspect they might, to swing a deal for veteran linebacker depth.

CB Ashton Youboty - Speaking of veterans that are candidates to be dangled in trade talks, meet Mr. Youboty. 25-year-old corners with some promise aren't exactly easy to come by, but the Bills have solid depth at corner without considering Youboty. (There's also a reason I listed Cary Harris as "on the bubble" above.) Buffalo obviously doesn't feel the need to actively try to trade Youboty, and he certainly won't be released. But if the right offer comes along - particularly if it involves that aforementioned veteran linebacker - the Bills might just pull the trigger.

***

That's it. That's about as ironclad as you can get on a pretty ambiguous topic. I'm off to Ralph Wilson Stadium to take in tonight's game; the open thread will air at 6:00 PM ET, and I'll have a recap up for y'all when I get back from the stadium. Enjoy yourselves this evening.

Young Bills playing for roster spots as Bills close pre-season

Brian Galliford — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 13:30:13 -0000

After a month of progressively worsening pre-season football, the Buffalo Bills will gladly bring their fall session of practice games to a close this evening when they take on the Detroit Lions in each team's pre-season finale. Though the team's starters aren't expected to see much time (if any), there is still plenty to monitor as roster cut-downs are looming.

There are several intriguing battles, players and situations to keep track of - not the least of which is the battle we polled y'all about this morning. Head on in past the jump for all of the end-of-pre-season goodness.

Will Edwards play?
QB Trent Edwards has been the opposite of the toast of the town over the past two weeks. There is some speculation out there that Edwards, who sports a 46.9 quarterback rating this pre-season, might sit the game out entirely. He didn't play in last year's pre-season finale (also against Detroit), but he was dealing with a minor injury at the time, and was held out as a precautionary measure.

Edwards certainly hasn't been given much help this pre-season. He's entered each game without a game plan, three of the games without WR Terrell Owens (who probably will not play tonight), and has been asked to perform without those assets and behind a work-in-progress offensive line. Those aren't excuses, but should we have expected something different? If Edwards doesn't play tonight, I'm sure folks will be angry. At least, at that point, they'll be piling on someone else. I think Edwards will play, if only for a series.

We'll miss you, Marshawn
This is the last time we'll see Marshawn Lynch until October 4 - if he plays, that is. Lynch, as you're well aware, will serve a three-game suspension to start the season. He will not be eligible to practice or work out a team facilities until the week prior to the Bills' early-October matchup in Miami, when he'll make his (hopefully triumphant) return to the lineup. Keep your head down and your nose clean, Marshawn.

Final auditions for bubble players
Several veterans and youngsters, as you well know, are currently battling for roster spots. Here are a few key veterans who need solid performances to make sure that they remain Bills through the weekend.

TE Jonathan Stupar - Was the NFL's pre-season receiving leader through three games, but got completely blanked when he was bumped up the depth chart in Pittsburgh. Derek Fine probably won't play tonight, and Derek Schouman will see limited action, so Stupar gets another chance to make an impression. Another shutout obviously won't help his cause.

OT Jonathan Scott - Given Demetrius Bell's back injury, the possibility exists for the Bills to keep nine offensive linemen, at least to start the season. Scott has struggled of late, as has Brandon Rodd, another contender for the ninth lineman spot (if, again, it exists).

DE Chris Ellis - Just one of a handful of defensive ends with a lot to gain or lose tonight. (I could technically put Ryan Denney on this list, but the chances of him going anywhere are quite slim.) Ellis has had a surprisingly productive pre-season, which has likely saved his once-tenuous hold on a roster spot after a slow start to training camp. Still, given the flux at other positions, it's tough to call Ellis a lock.

DE Copeland Bryan - You have to feel for Bryan a little. He's clearly sixth on the DE list in terms of priority (i.e. he was neither drafted nor re-signed by this team), plus he's dealt with a nagging hamstring injury throughout the pre-season. Yet despite a very strong pre-season effort that includes two sacks and two forced fumbles, he might not even make the team.

Pretty much every reserve linebacker - The three starters aren't going anywhere. Neither is rookie fifth-round pick Nic Harris, who has been inconsistent but productive in the pre-season. That leaves two (with a small possibility for three) spots open for two of Marcus Buggs, Ryan Manalac, Alvin Bowen, Ashlee Palmer and Jon Corto to claim. With the exception of Manalac, this one is very close, and quite difficult to call. Obviously, a strong performance from any of these players could ultimately sway the coaching staff's decision in their favor.

CB Ashton Youboty - There isn't any realistic scenario that could play out this weekend in which Youboty gets cut. I'm not making any promises on the trade front, however - if the Bills don't like their depth at linebacker and want to swing a trade for a vet, Youboty is the player the team would most likely dangle. The chances are strong that Youboty will be on the field in New England (for the Bills) on September 14, but it's not a lock.

SS John Wendling - I won't even list Ko Simpson here, because I think it's close to a virtual certainty that his days in Buffalo are numbered. (Barring injury, of course. Knock on wood, everyone.) Wendling, however, is a different scenario altogether - he's been a centerpiece of Bobby April's special teams units for two years, but he's not a lock to make it this year, particularly considering the team's excellent depth at cornerback, defensive end and wide receiver.

Also, one last note - dig your thinking caps out of whatever crevasse you've left them in, because we've got a contest running from tomorrow (Friday) morning through roster cut-downs. Bet you can't guess what the contest entails; there will be a prize, however, so stay tuned.

Bills starters not likely to play much Thursday night

Brian Galliford — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 11:00:24 -0000

After four long, boring, miserable meaningless pre-season games, the Buffalo Bills will mercifully bring the pre-season to a close tomorrow night when they host the Detroit Lions in each team's final tune-up for the regular season. For the Bills and their much-maligned offense, it will be the last chance for many players to fine tune their games in a live setting before the Bills' regular season opener, two Mondays from now in New England.

Bills head coach Dick Jauron revealed on Wednesday that his starters would not see much time, if any. Many veterans coming off of injuries, such as WR Terrell Owens and DE Aaron Schobel, will likely be held out of action to make sure they're completely healthy for the games that count. Other starters - such as QB Trent Edwards, for example - could play, but will likely only see a series or two.

In the 2008 pre-season finale (also against Detroit), Jauron allowed only one of his starters to take the field - FS Ko Simpson. Third-string QB Gibran Hamdan got the start at quarterback that night while Edwards and J.P. Losman watched from the sidelines. The Bills lost that game at home 14-6.

From where I sit, it seems highly unlikely that we'll see a repeat of that decision. For one, the Bills have a brand new offensive line whose starters could use an extra drive or two worth of reps against actual NFL players before heading to New England. Edwards, who has struggled mightily of late, could use a solid drive siimply to boost his confidence a bit. RB Marshawn Lynch, who will miss the first three games of the season due to suspension, will likely see a series before heading to the shelf. Owens and Lee Evans are virtual locks to sit this one out.

Defensively, veterans such as Schobel, Marcus Stroud, Terrence McGee and perhaps even Kawika Mitchell probably won't play. Paul Posluszny might not, either, as he's currently got a nice gash on his chin that keeps opening up on him. Other young starters, from Kyle Williams straight through Leodis McKelvin, will get the "series or two" treatment.

Still plenty to learn
I suspect that many folks who still have their knickers in a twist about the current state of the Bills will be upset that the starters will see little to no time against Detroit. As long as some of the key youngsters we're relying on play, even if it's just a bit, I'm OK with the decision. Players like Owens and Schobel aren't going to get anything out of playing one pre-season series anyways.

The real interest in this game comes from the second units, who are likely to play a ton. Jauron was sending a message to his entire team, veterans and youngsters alike, when he did not deny that Demetrius Bell (who will miss the Detroit game) could unseat Langston Walker at left tackle - nobody should be comfortable. We'll give any job away if a player is deserving of a promotion. Rarely does Jauron do something like that through the media. But it is what it is, and opportunity is now knocking for younger players.

Steve Johnson is a good example. Is it possible that he could start stealing slot reps from Josh Reed? Reed is a known commidity, but Johnson isn't - and he's flashed immense potential. Shawn Nelson has a chance to secure lots of playing time in this game. So does Aaron Maybin, Chris Ellis, Copeland Bryan, Reggie Corner and perhaps even Jairus Byrd.

In many ways, the pre-season finale is the most intriguing pre-season game of the season. A strong performance can lock up a roster spot, just as it did for Bryan a year ago. As I said above - as long as select young starters get some reps, I'm OK with the starters sitting out the majority of this game. This game is about picking the 53 guys you're going to go to battle with four the next four months - and there is still plenty of intrigue on that front.

Eight Bills position battles that will dictate roster decisions

Brian Galliford — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 16:15:08 -0000

In the spirit of the topic of the day - roster projections - I thought it might be a useful little exercise to break down some of the more ferocious battles going on at the moment for Buffalo Bills roster spots. Obviously, with the initial roster cut-downs taking place a week from today, the intensity in some of these battles should be cranked up to another level.

This is only my opinion, but I believe that there are eight battles taking place right now in the eyes of the coaching staff that could have large ramifications on how the final roster ultimately takes shape. My views on those eight battles appear after the jump.

Ryan Denney vs. Chris Ellis vs. Copeland Bryan
May the best two men make the roster!
- I know that the idea of the Bills keeping six defensive ends has swept Bills nation and captured the imaginations of the masses, but I sincerely doubt that the coaching staff would be willing to sacrifice a player at another position for depth at the position that might not dress on Sundays. The good news is that the play has been solid enough to this point in the pre-season that the likelihood of the team keeping five ends is high. Aaron Schobel, Chris Kelsay and Aaron Maybin aren't going anywhere. That means that two of the three players listed above could stay. The smart money says Denney and Ellis will stay, but don't sleep on Bryan - the coaches really like him. If Ellis and Bryan continue to impress the way they have in the past two pre-season games, the coaches could get gutsy and take the youth route at a position that needs it.

Projected winners: Denney, Ellis

Derek Fine vs. Jonathan Stupar
May the best man make the roster!
- It might surprise you to see Fine's name in any sort of competition not involving the starting tight end role after the hype this off-season. Derek Schouman is a near-lock to start, and rookie Shawn Nelson will see playing time in specific offensive packages to make use of his athleticism and length. Meanwhile, Jonathan Stupar is the team's leading receiver in the pre-season with 15 grabs for 155 yards and a touchdown. Fine has been solid enough, but nowhere near as impressive as Stupar. Is it possible that Stupar could supplant the 2008 fourth-round pick on the roster? Again, the smart money says no, but you shouldn't scoff at the notion. Stupar has been that impressive.

Projected winner: Fine

Ashton Youboty vs. Ellis Lankster
May the best man... well, this one's tricky!
- Unlike the first two battles outlined above, this one isn't so black-and-white. The simplest way to put it is this: Ellis Lankster is a lock to make this team. He will not be cut. Case closed. Where the wrinkle comes in is if the coaches feel that he can adequately be bumped ahead of Youboty on the depth chart. With the top four corners pretty much set in stone at this point, Youboty and Lankster are duking it out for the fifth corner role. If Lankster is perceived as ahead of Youboty on cut-down day, Youboty could be released or traded. The coaches aren't thrilled with his injury history, which, despite his solid play when healthy, makes him a liability on the roster. Smart money says both will make the team, but if the Bills want numbers at another position, Youboty could get the axe. It all depends on how close Youboty and Lankster compare in the coaches' eyes.

Projected order of finish: Youboty, then Lankster. Six corners seems likely at this point.

Pat Thomas vs. Marcus Buggs
May the best man make the roster!
- Paul Posluszny needs a backup, and unfortunately, it's not going to be John DiGiorgio, who'll spend a second straight season on IR. Thomas and Buggs spent much of training camp flip-flopping Mike roles with the second and third defensive units. Though Thomas has been considered the slight leader in this race all along thanks to his NFL experience, he's currently dealing with an ankle injury. That ankle injury was once considered minor - yet it's kept him out of two weeks' worth of practices and pre-season games. Perhaps that ankle injury isn't as minor as once thought. Meanwhile, Buggs hasn't been spectacular, but he's a good athlete and can help on special teams. Please stay healthy, Poz.

Projected winner: Buggs

Alvin Bowen vs. Jon Corto vs. Ashlee Palmer
May the best man make the roster!
- Just like at middle linebacker, Kawika Mitchell and Keith Ellison need backups. The good news is that rookie fifth-round pick Nic Harris has cemented himself as Ellison's chief understudy. That leaves one spot open - working under the very likely assumption that the Bills will open the season with six linebackers on the active roster, as they did in 2008 - for one of these three young outside linebackers. Palmer is a ghost participant here - he was very impressive early in camp, but an ankle injury has caused him to miss two pre-season games, and could keep him out for the foreseeable future. He seems destined for the practice squad. Meanwhile, Bowen and Corto are essentially the same player - undersized, speedy athletes that will see most of their time on special teams. I'll tell you this: the coaches like Bowen, but they love Corto.

Projected winner: Corto

Ko Simpson vs. George Wilson
May the best man make the roster!
- At a bare minimum, the Bills will keep four safeties. Donte Whitner, Bryan Scott and Jairus Byrd are locks to make the roster. Simpson and Wilson are currently duking it out for the final spot. Neither has been particularly impressive in coverage, but Wilson has looked a bit better in run support. The deciding factor here may be the fact that Wilson was a special teams captain in 2008, while Simpson... was not. Meanwhile, John Wendling will have to wait to see what happens at other critical positions before finding out if he'll make the team as a pretend safety and a full-time special teams ace.

Projected winner: Wilson

Xavier Omon vs. Corey McIntyre
May the best man moonlight on the roster for a month!
- I know, right? This battle is keeping you up at nights, so epic is the role to be won and the contestants for the job. Long story short, the Bills will need an emergency third running back to start the season while Marshawn Lynch serves his three-game suspension. Both Omon and McIntyre have seen extensive special teams action, and both have gotten their fair share of touches at running back. McIntyre has been serviceable, but Omon has made plays. Still, this competition is not over.

Projected winner: Omon

Jonathan Scott vs. Brandon Rodd
May the best man hope that 9 offensive linemen are needed!
- It's not a lock that the Bills will keep nine offensive linemen, and as it sits right now, the top eight is very much set in stone. Then again, the line has been incredibly inconsistent this pre-season, and a few players have had issues with minor back injuries. It's possible the coaches might want to keep a ninth lineman around simply to have the player on the practice field and still familiar with the system in the event more depth is needed. If that's the case, one of these players would stick.

Projected winner: Scott, if and only if a ninth lineman is needed