SB Nation - BenJarvus Green-Ellis

The Ten from the last Ten - Honorable Mentions, 10, and 9

The Ghost of Jay Cutler — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 19:53:26 -0000

In a few weeks, 2009 will give way to 2010 and, with that, awesomely tacky New Years Eve glasses and a relatively successful decade of Rebel football will become things of the past. With this, we at the Cup feel it appropriate to recap these last ten years with who we feel are the ten greatest football Rebels of this time span.

After a hearty round of email debate, the top four were more or less decided upon unanimously. But there was significant contention amongst the remaining selections. You're welcome, if not encouraged, to contend with our selections as well.

Today we'll have the honorable mentions along with numbers 10 and 9. We'll have 8-5 tomorrow and 4-1 either Friday evening or Saturday morning, we hope.

HONORABLE MENTIONS (no particular order)

Terrence Metcalf - OT - Left in 2002 - Metcalf was, along with Romaro Miller, part of one of the best Ole Miss signing classes ever. Coming off of probation, Ole Miss was able to ink both Metcalf and Miller--a par of Mississippians on the Parade All-American list--stealing them away from an aggressively recruiting Alabama Crimson Tide program. Metcalf anchored the Rebel line for many years, earning a reputation as an aggressive, strong blocker. He protected Eli's blind side during his record-setting sophomore year before going on to a good career with the Chicago Bears.

Romaro Miller - QB - 2000 - Romaro Miller is, statistically speaking, the best Rebel quarterback not named Manning. Sure, Kent Austin, John Darnell, Stewart Patridge, and even Jevan Snead have done great things in a Rebel uniform, but none were as exciting to watch as Miller.

Johnathan Nichols - K - 2003 - I know you won the Lou Groza award, but we still can't forgive you.

Derrick Burgess - DE - 2001 - A former first team All-SEC defensive end, Derrick Burgess is now in the throes of a successful NFL career which has seen him make two trips to the Pro Bowl.

Greg Hardy - DE - Still on roster - If it weren't for injuries, gr3gxxz could easily be in this list's top five. He will undoubtedly go down as one of the most entertaining Ole Miss Rebels ever, both on and off the field.

Chris Spencer - C - 2005 - An all-around good guy and a solid blocker, Spencer was picked up in the first round by the Seattle Seahawks where he is still starting at the offensive center position.

Chris Collins - WR - 2003 - Eli Manning's go-to guy, Collins was the record holder for receiving yards in a season up until just a few weeks ago when Shay Hodge overtook him.

Now, onto the real deal.

NUMBER TEN

BenJarvus Green-Ellis - RB - 2008
While he will be a relatively unsung hero in the lore of Ole Miss Rebel football, his place as one of our programs greatest runners will not be overlooked by the Cup. Green-Ellis is only the second Rebel to ever post back-to-back 1,000 yard rushing seasons. He was a workhorse back who favored lowering his shoulder and driving forward to juking or spinning in order to get an extra few yards. BJGE was named to the All-SEC first team by the Associated Press after his successful senior season. As it stands today, he is an oft-used reserve for the New England Patriots.

NUMBER NINE

Mike Wallace - WR - 2009 - As one of the fastest Ole Miss players ever, Mike Wallace was Jevan Snead's deep target during the last half of the 2008-9 season. Perhaps no Rebel has ever been able to stretch the field quite like Wallace, who is now arguably the best rookie wide receiver in the NFL as the third wideout for the Pittsburgh Steelers. During his final two years in Oxford, he was able to make the secondaries of Florida, LSU, Mississippi State, and Texas Tech look downright slow. He also performed well in kick return duties.

That's all for now.

A tip of the hat goes to Dr. Saturday for the inspiration and Thile via Twitter for the nudge.

New England Patriots Links 10/22/09 - Brandon Tate Ready and Willing

Marima — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 13:44:54 -0000

Rookie WR Brandon Tate finally ready, and more than willing to play.

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Tom Brady talks up the Bucs.

I mean, obviously, every team has its strengths and weaknesses, and every team is dangerous in its own way. This team has a lot of youth, but it has some playmakers on defense, especially in the secondary. We went through a lot of the stuff this morning and they can make a lot of plays. Similar to us, it's just the consistency of it. We're expecting them to play their best game - there's no reason why they wouldn't - so we're going to have to go out and do the same.

Bill Belichick talks up the undrafteds, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Gary Guyton.

[BenJarvus Green-Ellis] has been very impressive since the first time we had him here in rookie minicamp and then in the spring minicamps, kind of like how Gary Guyton was on defense. I'm not saying you don't expect anything… I mean, this guy was a good back, in a good conference, at a good school just like Gary Guyton was a good linebacker, in a good conference, at a good school, but they come in and start competing with your veteran players and even some of your younger veterans – second and third year guys – and they're right there with them or maybe even moving a little bit ahead of them and it catches your eye pretty quickly.

From no experience and no big hype coming in, they show up here and start making plays and start doing a lot of things that guys who supposedly are more talent or supposedly have more experience, they're doing them better [and] it kind of catches your eye. I would say Gary and BenJarvus both fell into that category last year and have continued to improve and progress through the entire time they've been here. It wasn't just a one hit wonder, quick shot at it. They started fast and they built on it and built it to a very high level.

Shalise Manza Young notes rookie WR Brandon Tate is itching to play and knows he must show both the Pats' coaching staff and Tom Brady that he can be counted on.

"I just (have to) try to get the coaches' trust so they can put me in the game," he said, adding that Brady was just as important to impress. "It is, because if Tom doesn't trust you he's not going to throw you the ball, so I'm just going to go out there and practice and just try to do everything right."

"I'm real happy. I feel comfortable, I have the trust back in the knee, I'm ready to go," he said. "I feel real confident in myself…If they give me the call, I'll be ready. It is the perfect situation; I'm just going to go out there, get the coaches' trust, get Tom's trust, and we'll see."

TEAM SHOTS

Erik Scalavino LB Adalius Thomas opens up about his deactivation from last week's game and what lies ahead for him and the Patriots. Pus, news and notes from the New England locker room and Wednesday's practice.
Patriots and Buccaneers announce the following player injuries and practice participation.
Wednesday Pressers: Tom Brady (9.32 min video) plus Transcript, and Bill Belichick (20 min. video) plus Transcript.
Patriots Today - Prepping for London (9:34 min. video)
Locker Room Uncut - Thomas, Mankins and WR intrigue. (3.31 min. video)
PFW TV Watch this edition as we discuss the Patriots 59-0 win over the Titans. Plus, we'll preview this Sunday's game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Wembley Stadium in London. (22.41 min. video)

LOCAL LINKS

Karen Guregian looks at the benching of Adalius Thomas gamble by Belichick, and says it probably won't serve to propel him into playing like the guy the Patriots thought they had signed.
Monique Walker reports Adalius Thomas took the benching as a professional, "It’s not about me and Bill. We’re fine. It seems like y’all have a bigger problem with it than I do."
Ron Borges says being inactive is nothing new to Adalius Thomas, 'the most expensive free agent signee of the Bill Belichick era, which is a large part of the reason he was sitting at home while less well compensated players were playing football in the snow."
Kerry J. Byrne reviews the Patriots snow games and concludes Brady is the best QB in winter weather.
Mike Reiss notes Patriots third-string QB Isaiah Stanback is an offbeat option at WR and has experience at that position.
Robert Lee has a terrific piece on LB Gary Guyton - a humble, unlikely leader of the Patriots defense.
Tony Massarotti focuses on the steady ship that has been the New England Patriots since Bill Belichick's second year coaching the team.
Mike Reiss offers a Patriots penalty breakdown through week 6.
Boston Herald Patriots Notebook: Darius Butler joined the walking wounded with an ankle injury; Bucs head coach Raheem Morris is still looking for his first win; Jonathan Wilhite became a first-time father Tuesday with the birth of baby girl Kamryn; Tom Brady has never played football in England, but his cartoon self has. In a "Family Guy" episode titled "Patriots Games," Brady and the Pats play a team called the Silly Nannies in London.

NATIONAL NEWS

Tim Graham (ESPN) AFC East Underachiever: Terrell Owens. Rookie receiver Julian Edelman, a seventh-round draft choice the New England Patriots converted from QB, has six more catches than Owens in one fewer game.
Nolan Nawrocki (Pro Football Weekly) Examined all 32 NFL rosters and identified Ty Warren as one of 10 players who haven't received the recognition that they have earned.
Charles Robinson (Yahoo! Sports) NFL: Week 6 - Audi Eye Opening Performance- Robinson breaks down the historic performance by Tom Brady and if this is the beginning of another great season.
Mark Woods (Britball media for ESPNBoston) UKPats ready to cheer on New England.
Jeffrey Marcus (NY Times) For Glazers, winning in one football is not as easy as winning in the other.
Peter Schrager (Fox Sports) Week 7 Cheat Sheet: NFL picks and predictions. Pats over Bucs 37-14
Aaron Wilson (Nat'l Football Post) Seymour didn't like how trade to Raiders was handled.
Alex Marvez (Fox Sports) NFL facing an international crisis.
Ross Tucker (SI) Too many 'victory Mondays' lead to losing Sundays for mediocre teams.

VIEW FROM TAMPA

Buccaneers.com Digging deep: The Bucs went back to work on Wednesday, preparing to face New England's explosive offense.
Ira Kaufman (Tampa Tribune) Bucs will be strictly business for game in London.
Joe Smith (St. Petersburg Times) Bucs will use different travel plans than Patriots for London showdown.
Ira Kaufman (Tampa Tribune ) Pats' coach Belichick wary of improving Bucs team. "When Bill Belichick finished his conference call with the Tampa Bay media Wednesday, it was unclear whether he was preparing for the 2009 Buccaneers or the 1985 Chicago Bears."
Anwar Richardson (Tampa Tribune) Morris keeps confidence amid growing fan unrest.
John Romano (St. Petersburg Times) Do not underestimate the sheer helplessness of this year's Buccaneers. (2.08 min. video)

"Did you know former owner Hugh Culverhouse once interviewed Bill Belichick to be his head coach? Culverhouse gave the job to Richard Williamson instead. Williamson went on to win 3 games in his only full season as an NFL head coach. Bill Belichick went on to win 3 Super Bowls as the Patriots head coach."

Bills Fantasy Friday: Week 1 Start 'Em/Sit 'Em

Kurupt — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 10:42:50 -0000

Finally! This week marks the opening week of ~~the NFL~~ Fantasy Football! Today we are debuting a weekly feature aimed at suggesting how to handle any Buffalo Bills you may have on your fantasy squads. I know it's almost suicidal trying to rely on players from our beloved Bills in fantasy football, but fear not: some of them actually have potential this season! We will be taking a look at the individual players involved in each particular week's Bills game, including players on the opposition, and making educated suggestions as to whether you should be starting them or sitting them. So without further ado, welcome to Fantasy Football Friday here at Buffalo Rumblings and SB Nation. Let's dive right in after the jump.

Quarterbacks
Trent Edwards - I really don't need to tell any of you how bad Edwards was this pre-season... no touchdowns, three interceptions, 5.0 yards per attempt, 46.9 QB rating, yada yada yada. If you were planning on starting Edwards this week, bless your heart. Unless you are in a deep, multi-quarterback league, steer clear of Trent. In fact, he might not even be rosterable in most leagues. Verdict: Sit' Em in all standard leagues

Tom Brady - Grrrrr. He's back. After missing just about the entire 2008 season, Brady returns as potentially the top QB in fantasy football. With a fired up Foxboro crowd and the desire to prove he's 100% right away, Brady and the Pats offense might come out throwing over and over and over. He's routinely destroyed the Bills, averaging 230 yards per game, 2+ touchdowns and a owning a sparkling 103.3 QB rating. If the Bills' pass rush can't get to him, he should easily match those numbers. Verdict: Duh, Start 'Em in all leagues

Running Backs
Fred Jackson - With Marshawn Lynch out until October and Dominic Rhodes out of a job, Jackson will be the main ball carrier and in all likelihood will get nearly all of the touches out of the backfield. He proved last year that he was more than capable of hurting the Patriots defense when he ran for 136 yards on 27 carries. It'll be tough to repeat that performance with a brand new and quite youthful offensive line in front of him, but he is, at worst, a good flex pick. He should get at least 15-20 carries, and with the way Edwards has been playing another 4-6 receptions, so the touches will be there. In a PPR league, Jackson is much more desirable. Outside of shallow leagues, where there are likely better options available, Jackson is a nice RB2 this week. Verdict: Start 'Em

Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Corey Dillon, Antowain Smith, Leonard Russell, etc - Do Patriots fans even know what the plan is for utilizing all these guys? Like a typical Belichick team, they will be rotating backs in and out and it's highly unlikely any will see the majority of touches. It's too early in the season to have to use any of these guys outside of the deepest of leagues. I guess Faulk has some value in PPR leagues. I see Sammy Morris is listed as the starter, so he may get most of the first half carries and could see early goal line carries. He's a sleeper flex option. Verdict: Sit 'Em all

Wide Receivers
Terrell Owens - T.O. makes his regular season debut as a Buffalo Bill and he should pump some excitement, and hopefully production, into the Bills offense. He's going to be fired up with a lot to prove. I'd imagine Owens will be looking to show everyone he's healthy, still productive at 35, still the highlight reel performer we've been accustom to and ready to roll in prime time. Just a hunch, he'll want to show Dallas what they are missing out on. I expect Owens to have a big game....if Edwards can get it to him. He's still a must start WR each week. Verdict: Start 'Em

Lee Evans - Evans on the other hand is hardly a must start each week. Most fantasy players will consider him one of the most frustrating WR's in the league, and it's hard to argue that with his inconsistent production each year. With Owens opposite him, Evans should see a lot less double and rolled coverage, so the opportunities should be there. The team will be looking to get it downfield more and there's no better option in the league for that. He's always struggled against the Patriots, having never scored a touchdown against them and averaging just 37 yards per game. The concern is there, but the Patriots questionable secondary is ripe for the picking. Evans is a good WR3 pick this week, with upside to put up pretty big numbers, especially if the Bills' offense is able to get the no-huddle in gear. Verdict: Start 'Em in deeper leagues or as a flex option

Josh Reed, Steve Johnson, Roscoe Parrish - Don't even consider starting of these guys unless you have a team of only Bills players. Verdict: What do you think?

Randy Moss - I think Moss will be the top WR in fantasy again this year. With Brady back, his numbers will go up from last year, when they weren't that bad anyhow. I doubt he'll return to his 2007 statistical form, but 1,300+ yards and 15+ touchdowns are extremely realistic. You obviously roll with Moss every week. Verdict: Start' Em

Wes Welker - Will he play? Is his injury signficant? Is he injured at all? There are a lot of question marks and a lack of knowledge about Welker right now. He was limited in practice Thursday, so that might not be encouraging for Patriots and fantasy fans. Keep an eye on the Patriots injury report, although it's unlikely Belichick will let anything slip out. It's going to be risky going with Welker this week because you won't be able to swap him out for another player unless that player happens to play Monday night. In PPR leagues, Welker is gold and just might be worth the risk in all leagues. I'd have to believe he gives it a go. Verdict: Start 'Em

Joey Galloway - If Welker is ruled out early enough for you to make the move, Galloway would be a sneaky option. It looks like he'd get the start as the 2nd WR and could be in a line for a pretty good day. Verdict: Sit 'Em unless Welker is ruled out.

Tight Ends
Derek Schouman, Derek Fine, Shawn Nelson - Do not start any of these guys. Do not even consider it. Until Trent proves he throws to any of them consistently, there is no point in even owning them. There are a number of other options available at TE on a weekly basis; go with one of them. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Benjamin Watson, Chris Baker - Both are better options than the Bills' TE's, but neither are starting fantasy options. Steer clear. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Kickers
Rian Lindell - Lindell is a solid fantasy option because of the Bills' inability to reach the endzone, and might be worth consideration this week. I'd rather go with a kicker from a better offense though. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Stephen Gostkowski - He led the NFL in scoring last year. Gostkowski is a no-brainer start at the kicker position weekly. Verdict: Start 'Em

Defenses
Bills defense/special teams - This is a terrible matchup for this unit. They might be a spot start later in the season, but this is not one of those games. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Patriots defense/special teams - Despite their questionable status, the Patriots defense is probably one of the better options this week. With a mistake prone Edwards looking to rebound from a terrible season and a Bills' OL still trying to find its footing, the Patriots defense could be in line for a good number of stat accumulators. Verdict: Start 'Em

Sleeper Options
Bills - Do they really have any sleeper options? I guess I'll go with Fred Jackson simply because he's only a borderline starter in most leagues. I expect him to have a very efficient and productive game.

Patriots - Joey Galloway and Laurence Maroney - If Welker is out, Galloway becomes a pretty good spot start for all leagues. And in case the Patriots do get up big (please no!), I have a hunch we might see a lot of Maroney in the second half. That's just a gut feeling. With Morris likely to play with a hand injury and Fred Taylor being so old, Maroney would be my guess for the guy who gets the garbage time carries.

*******

There you have, your Week 1 Start 'Em/Sit 'Em for the Bills vs. Patriots. You can use this as your end of the week fantasy open thread. Enjoy all the games this weekend!

Patriots Week: Talking running backs with Pats Pulpit

Brian Galliford — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 15:02:56 -0000

You know what? Talking about a game every day for a full week gets exhausting. I'll freely admit that after talking about the Buffalo Bills' upcoming Monday Night Football tilt with the New England Patriots for the past week with our friends at Pats Pulpit, I quickly grew tired of the chatter. I'm ready for some football. Then I saw those uniforms above, and the problem was exacerbated. That got the blood pumping.

As we're still over four full days away from that glorious kickoff, however, we'll keep talking about the Pats. MaPatsFan joins us once again this morning, this time to discuss the Patriots' extraordinarily deep stable of able running backs. His observations, and my thoughts on his observations, are after the jump.

Rumblings: The Pats are consistently ranked toward the top of the league in rushing from season to season, but the team has not had what one might consider an "elite" running back since Corey Dillon. Is Laurence Maroney set to turn the corner, or will the Pats once again rely on their depth at the position to keep the offense balanced?

Pulpit: I remember talking about this when we discussed our player rankings earlier in the preseason. I think a lot of it has to do with the different way we Pats fans see our running backs. Yes, the term "backfield by committee" is somewhat overused, but it's very true in our case; your comment about "depth of position" is where I see the Pats working the backfield. We've had some success with that strategy, specifically because of situational backs like Kevin Faulk. So I think the way the backfield is setup is ideal.

I would love to say Laurence Maroney is ready to turn the corner. I would love to say he's ready to emerge as a top back. But I still haven't seen it. At training camp I, as well as a number of others who attended, said he looked sharp and decisive. Unfortunately, in pre-season games he was bouncing off of the offensive line just like he used to. I was depressed after watching it. I was really pulling for him, as were many others. Now, a few pre-season games do not a season make, so I'll give him some regular season reps before banging the final nail in his coffin.

A "happy surprise" this year has been the emergence of BenJarvus Green-Ellis (known as "Law Firm" for obvious reasons). A practice squad guy in 2008, he was promoted to the 53-man roster when the Pats suffered a number of injuries in the backfield. He did a great job then and in the 2009 pre-season, so Hoodie awarded him with a roster spot. Carrying five backs may seem like a lot, but I think it helps us balance out the aerial assault, especially since we don't have that workhorse back that so many other teams have.

You've gotta love how a Pats blogger can talk about the talent at running back and not even mention Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris. If there's any stable of running backs in the league that is capable of sucking out your soul in the late stages of a game with irritating first down after first down, it's this group.

What the unit lacks, however, is a true game-breaker. As useful as Morris, Faulk and Green-Ellis are, they have never been, nor will they never be, the type of back that can single-handedly change a game with one big play. Fred Taylor used to be that back, but at this point, he's merely a rotational player. Maroney is supposed to be that player; as a first-round draft pick, he's been quite disappointing, and injury-prone to boot. With a questionable Maroney - who, by the way, has torched the Bills in the past - this group is merely excellent. If Maroney finally emerges, they might just end up being the best group of runners in the league.

Obviously, Buffalo will have to keep an eye on these players if they want to compete. Yes, it's true that most of their attention needs to be focused on flustering Tom Brady and preventing the big play to Randy Moss and Wes Welker. That much is clear. But if the Bills can't shut down these sneaky backs to get off the field on third down, it's going to be a long night in Foxboro.

FA Profile: RB Fred Taylor

NESilver — Mon, 25 May 2009 00:01:15 -0000

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Date of Birth: January 27, 1976 (1976-01-27) (age 33)
Place of Birth: Pahokee, Florida
Height: 6 ft. 1 in.
Weight: 228 lb.
College: Florida
High School: Glades Central HS (Belle Glade, FL)
NFL Draft: 1998 - 1st Round - 9th overall
Experience: 12th season
Jersey Number: #21
Contract Details: 2 years, $5 million. Includes $1.45 million signing bonus and base salaries of $1.55 million (2009) and $2 million (2010).

Fred Taylor has spent his entire career in the NFL playing for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Up until now, that is. After visiting with the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots, Taylor ultimately chose to come play for Bill Belichick and the Pats as he enters the final stages of his illustrious career.

This is old news at this point, considering his signing came way back during the early days of free agency, but there's still plenty to be excited about.

First and foremost, the guy is an established veteran (and we know Bill likes his vets), who's hungry for a Super Bowl win. Sounds like he'll fit right in. Here's what Taylor had to say back when he was still a free agent:

“I want to play in a Super Bowl so bad, and the Super Bowl’s down here in Miami next year. I want to be in that game. Two years ago, Plaxico [Burress], my child’s godfather, won the Super Bowl. This year, my little cousin from Belle Glade [Fla.], Santonio Holmes, was the MVP in the biggest game in the world. My taste for that game is getting stronger and stronger. And honestly, I feel fresh. I get inspired by young guys and showing them what I can do. There are a lot of young guys I’m still quicker than. God gave me a lot when he was handing out ability. I still have a lot.”

This is ultimately what attracted Fred Taylor to come join the Pats - a chance for a ring (I mean... I can't imagine it being the weather, can you?). Taylor helps to fill the void left by Lamont Jordan's departure and joins a stable that already consists of Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Omar Cuff, and Eric Kettani (as recently outlined by MaPatsFan here). The Patriots like to employ a RB-by-committee approach, so the depth is important, as we witnessed last year when injuries hit. Taylor shouldn't have any problem splitting the carries; he shared the load with RB Maurice Jones-Drew the last few years in Jacksonville, and the two were quite the 1-2 punch during his time there. Adalius Thomas agrees:

"I'd hate to be on the other side," said Thomas. "You got Kevin, you got Sammy, you got Laurence, you got BenJarvus Green-Ellis and you got Fred. If all the guys are up, by the fourth quarter nobody is really tired. You're kind of fresh. It might not play off the first game, but when you get to Week 10, 11 or 12 and people are starting to wear down I think that, barring injury, that can definitely be a great asset with the different ways you can use them."

I'll be quite frank and say that I'm really excited about having Fred Taylor in New England. The guy can flat out run. However, whenever I'm looking to have my enthusiasm tempered about an incoming free agent, I normally ask myself, "why is this guy available in the first place?" In this case, the Jaguars were looking to get younger and they weren't ready to deal with the $6 million cap hit that would've come along had they kept him.

He is also statistically coming off one of his worst years as a pro. In 2008, he had 143 carries for 556 yards rushing (3.9 yards per carry). Those numbers aren't necessarily his fault considering Jacksonville's injury woes last year. They were decimated with injuries to their offensive line, and Jones-Drew was affected as well by seeing his yards per carry drop to 4.2. Without any real threats at wide receiver, the opposition was allowed to crowd the box and stuff the run. The Jags consequently finished their season at 5-11.

Still, he is only two years removed from an All-Pro season in 2007, and he's motivated. Did you know that he's 16th all-time in rushing yards with 11,271? One of Taylor's goals is to pass Jim Brown before he retires. He only trails him by 1,041 yards, and he's already passed former New England favorite Corey Dillon on his way there. Taylor is also the 5th best all-time in yards per carry with 4.6, behind only Jim Brown (5.2), Barry Sanders (5.0), O.J. Simpson (4.7) and Tiki Barber (4.7). That's impressive production for a guy once labeled as "fragile."

Best of luck to you in New England, "Fast Freddy!"

Fred Taylor Links
Pats Pulpit - Interview: New England Patriots RB Fred Taylor
Reiss's Pieces: OTA Video
Shalize Manza Young: Fred Taylor elated to be learning playbook
Reiss's Pieces: 3 with Fred Taylor
Reiss's Pieces: Kyle Brady talks Fred Taylor
YouTube: Video Highlights (props to MaPatsFan for finding this one)

Patriots changes by position: Running Back

MaPatsFan — Sun, 24 May 2009 15:24:21 -0000

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When I do Q&A's with other bloggers, I'm asked two questions almost every time: a) how is Tom Brady and b) who will start at running back. The first question is a bit of a dance as there's very little information on Tommy Terrific, but the second question, the running back question, I always feel more confident to answer: Laurence Maroney. As you may know, I'm not a fan of the term "starter" especially with our backfield. When you breakout how many snaps a player may play compared to others at his position, his contribution to the team becomes more apparent. Laurence may, more than likely, play more snaps than his counterparts. But I believe we will have a "backfield by committee". It appears each RB has a special skill that is tailor made for certain situations and Belichick is a master at using his tools, isn't he? With that said, let's get started.

Laurence Maroney - I have been critical of Maroney. Living up to expectations in 2006, he's had issues ever since. Overall, I find him "bouncing" off of the line and not deciseively slicing through holes, or finding holes for that matter. His colleague, Sammy Morris, has this ability but at 32, may be approaching the time when the gas in the tank is dwindling. Laurence's lack of decisiveness showed itself in 2008, especially in Week 5 versus the 49ers. He was IR'd after that game and we have since found out it was due to a broken bone in his shoulder. I won't touch on the controversy swirling around this injury (ie: Patriots concealed the injury), but I will say I have renewed respect for the man and I'm a little miffed he had to conceal it. All along, I've been unfairly labeling Laurence as "soft". Had I known about the broken bone, I could have given him a fair shake. That being said, Maroney is the guy who will line up by default and get the most snaps, in the beginning that is. It's his job to lose and I'm really pulling for him to knock it out of the park.
Sammy Morris - For lack of a better term, I view Morris as Maroney's backup. Having the ability to rotate in Sammy gives everyone a fresh set of legs and that's important. I've also felt Morris is a very productive running back and a good guy to depend on when you need the yardage; he always finds a way to break through the line and get what you need. If Laurence can stay healthy, I believe we'll have an excellent set of "everything backs" in Maroney and Morris.
Kevin Faulk - Faulk, labeled as a third down specialist, showed us true grit in 2008. With Maroney out after Week 5 and LaMont Jordan injured as well, Faulk had to take more snaps and he showed us why opposing teams sigh in disgust when he's in. The guy is simply clutch. Checkdown, slot, option, run, it doesn't matter. And when he IS called upon in third down, defenses have to respect him and keep close tabs, because he has the hands to move the chains. With a rejuvenated backfield, I think we can move Kevin back to third downs for the most part.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis - "Law Firm", initially assigned to the practice squad in 2008, grew up fast when Maroney and Jordan were hurt and I think he did a really good job. More importantly, he got what many rookies need to do well: reps. It was baptism by fire for BenJarvus, but he got valuable experience at an NFL level and showed his stuff. I hope he's kept in the rotation and allowed to use those young legs to contribute.
Omar Cuff - Cuff hails from Delaware and was a productive "everything" back in college. There's little scouting information on Omar, so it's hard to tell where he'll fit in the roster.
Eric Kettani - Belichick has an affinity for the Naval Academy. His father coached there for many years and son Bill spent a great deal of team at that institution. Academy graduates with "special skills" can take advantage of shorter service times after graduation (because the academy is free, graduates normally "owe" the government five years of full service).
Fred Taylor - I like Fred and not just because he gave the Pulpit an interview, although that certainly doesn't hurt. ;-) I like Fred because he's all about hard nosed football. To say Taylor has moves is not giving him credit for what he can do. He also has a ridiculous after burner and can outrun DBs. Most importantly, Fred will be a great mentor for Laurence. Early in Taylor's career, he went through many of the same issues Maroney is facing. Maybe this was the main reason Belichick picked up "Fast Freddy".

Is this a good crew? I'm incredibly stoked to see Maroney come out and silence the critics; that would bode well for the future of our franchise. Morris as a another "utility back" is pretty darn good, too. Faulk is just, well, Faulk. He's a dangerous weapon in the backfield, especially when Moss and Welker are blanketed by coverage. Omar Cuff is a wait and see prospect as is Eric Kettani. Fred Taylor could be the wildcard in all of this. His highlights show a guy who can juke and jive with the best of them, has great downhill speed, and is not afraid to dish out some punishment to an unsuspecting DB. If we can balance out the aerial assault with a solid running game, the New England Patriots will be tough to beat.

Poll

Are you happy with the current running back crew?

Yes

477 votes

No

23 votes

Wait and see

71 votes

571 votes | Poll has closed

Around the AFC East, Week 2: New England Patriots

Brian Galliford — Fri, 22 May 2009 04:15:10 -0000

More photos » by Stephan Savoia - AP

7 months ago: New England Patriots rookie wide receiver Julian Edelman pulls in a pass during football practice at the team's training facility in Foxborough, Mass., Wednesday morning, May 20, 2009. (AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

Browse more photos »

Quick: name the last time the New England Patriots had a prolific rushing threat. You may have to answer that question with a resounding "Corey Dillon", as the Patriots haven't had a 1,000-yard rusher in each of the past four seasons.

Quick: name the last time the Patriots' lack of a dominant rusher actually mattered. The answer, of course, is "never", as in each of those four seasons (2005-2008), the Patriots have ranked No. 24, No. 12, No. 13 and No. 6 in rushing - essentially improving every season - while winning 49 of 64 regular season games.

Still, I'd imagine that if I'm a Pats fan looking for something to gripe about - their lives are so difficult - the rushing attack would be one of the most frequent starting points. New England's offense is clearly first-rate, but with a legitimate rushing threat, it could be legendary. Instead, the team has five players that could see significant touches from the position next season. MaPatsFan, lead blogger at Pats Pulpit, helps us figure out who'll be doing the most ball-carrying next season in New England.

With tons of picks and a pretty deep draft at running back, the Patriots surprised a few folks (including me) who expected them to take a runner at some point on draft day. Now you enter 2009 with a plethora of backs - including Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and signee Fred Taylor - but no clear-cut starter at the position. Is there enough to work with here, and how does the run game stand to improve with a new play-caller, given Josh McDaniels' exodus to Denver?

MaPatsFan: Actually, we did draft running back Julian Edelman (Kent State), but at No. 232 overall, that pick was easy to miss. I think the starter will be Laurence Maroney. Given the revelation that he was playing with a broken bone in his shoulder, I think he got a lousy shake last year and was unfairly labeled as fragile. I'm somewhat ashamed to say I was among those involved in the chastising, but it wasn't entirely without merit given the lack of information (Maroney was told to keep quiet about his injury). Shoulder aside, Maroney has a tendency to "bounce" off linemen rather than decisively slice through a hole, something Sammy Morris is very good at. I've been a HUGE Sammy Morris fan, but he's 32 this year; we need Maroney to step up.

Kevin Faulk is, well, Kevin Faulk. It's hard not to classify this guy as one of the most beloved Patriots in recent memory. Always clutch, he's a scary third down specialist with great hands. When we had backfield injury trouble in 2008, Kevin jumped in and would do what he needed to do. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (nicknamed "Law Firm" because his name is so long) was a surprise. Not a star, but he certainly grew up fast and got some valuable reps in the process. I could see him backing up Maroney in the future.

Fred Taylor is the wildcard in all of this. He's got far more downhill/breakaway speed than the rest of the guys; it remains to be seen if he still has gas left in the tank. But Fred's greatest value is twofold: a) mentor to Maroney ("Fragile Freddy" went through some of the same issues early in his career, too) and b) as some competition to light a fire under Maroney.

I have begged for a running game to balance out the aerial assault the Patriots have become known for. I saw flashes of a decent running game last year and will be excited to see what this crew will do. Maroney may get the most snaps, but I think this will be a backfield by committee.

***

First thing's first - I don't mean to put MaPatsFan in his place, but I highly doubt that Julian Edelman will be a running back at the NFL level. He was a quarterback at Kent State, and at 6'0" and 196 pounds, he doesn't have the bulk to hold up as a running back. Most clubs were looking at him as a wide receiver; that's what he's listed as on the Patriots roster, and he could get some Wildcat looks on occasion as well. Not that that really matters.

I'm with MaPatsFan, however, in that I think it is clearly Maroney's job to lose in New England. He's killed the Bills; in four career games, he's carried the ball 50 times for 227 yards (4.54 yards per carry) and a score in four Pats wins. Perhaps I'm a bit biased because of that, but Maroney's talent, when healthy, is undeniable. The rest of the clan, including Taylor at this point in his career, are just role players. Two things are clear: successful fantasy teams will steer clear of New England's backfield this year, and this rushing group won't come close to holding back New England's prolific offense.

Two more AFC East-centric interviews coming your way today. Stay tuned!

Divining the McDaniels Way, Part 4 - Propensities and Conclusions

Emmett Smith — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 17:30:09 -0000

Down/Distance Play Propensities and Conclusions

This series is the outcome of a month-long collaboration between nycbroncosfan and broncobear. In general, NYC covered the stats and Doc handled most of the writing and analysis. We hope that it sheds light on some of the questions that have arisen as to just what, exactly, Josh McDaniels has been doing with the New England offense over the past four years. It also looks at Jay Cutler's time as the primary starter in Denver over the past two years to establish where the Patriots and Broncos do and do not match up. We thoroughly enjoyed working on this project and hope that you will take just as much pleasure in reading it. Hopefully it will answer some of your questions about what to expect of the 2009 Broncos, and we look forward to your comments and critiques. Many thanks to our esteemed colleagues styg50 and hoosierteacher for their input, and to Zappa for his invaluable aid in managing the code and the templates.

Today is our final installment in the series. Previously, we have looked at the rushing and passing games of the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots in order to predict what we might see out of the 2009 Broncos on offense under the tutelage of Josh McDaniels. Now, let's take a look at how each franchise has performed at each down and distance - rush/pass propensity, production and success rates in converting to first downs. Finally, we'll spend a little time on drawing conclusions from all we have seen.

Here are the links to our previous installments:

Part 1 -Overview

Part 2 - The Running Game

Part 3 - The Passing Game

On 1st Down and 6-10 yards

Tendency and Success on 1st & 6-10 - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	Plays	Rush YPA	Rush%	Pass YPA	Pass%	Conversion %
DEN '07-'08	844	4.51	46.0%	7.16	54.0%	23.0%
NE '05-'08	1,754	4.51	48.4%	7.07	51.6%	20.3%

Unfortunately, we could not get statistics for each and every yardage, but it's pretty safe to say that there are very few times you'll see a 1st and 6, and even more rarely a 1st and 8. So, we're generally talking here about what Denver will do on 1st and 10. We've already established that New England has shown a stronger run/pass balance, but here we see how true that is at the beginning of each fresh set of downs.

The Broncos converted more of these 1st and 10 plays into more first downs, which is probably attributable to their heavier reliance on passing plays, which naturally produce a higher yardage per attempt. Oddly, the Broncos and Pats have rushed for the exact same YPA on 1st and 10. It may be just a quirk of statistics, so maybe it's more funny than interesting until you look at the trend in YPA.

On 2nd and short (1 to 5 yards)

Tendency and Success on 2nd & Short - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	Plays	Rush YPA	Rush%	Pass YPA	Pass%	Conversion %
DEN '07-'08	203	5.69	47.3%	4.81	52.7%	53.7%
NE '05-'08	455	4.15	65.5%	7.06	34.5%	58.0%

Here is a remarkable difference. Josh McDaniels has strongly favored running the ball on 2nd and short (65.5% of the time), while the Broncos have shown a slight preference toward throwing the ball from a similar down-and-distance (52.7% pass). Their yards per rush and reception indicate perhaps that teams knew what to expect - Denver gained a lot more on each carry than New England did, but the reverse is true for passes. Yardage aside, New England fared better where it counted - in the first-down conversion rate. It's also important to note that in different games, the Patriots would use different strategies on each down and distance, throwing in one game and rushing in the next. Since we know that Cassel was quick to pull down the ball and run, with 74 carries, that may also have influenced the stats as well.

We'd put this down to a difference in temperament and theory. Bates, in particular, would pass in every option. He used this as a chance to have a 'free play' - thinking that he could get the yards on the next play if needed. McDaniels went the other way, methodically making sure that his offense got the 1st down. While both Doc and NYC lean heavily toward the latter approach, both are legitimate options.

On 2nd and 6, or longer

Tendency and Success on 2nd & Long - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	Plays	Rush YPA	Rush%	Pass YPA	Pass%	Conversion %
DEN '07-'08	457	4.61	34.6%	7.41	65.4%	26.9%
NE '05-'08	959	3.72	35.7%	6.92	64.3%	23.6%

On second-and-long situations, the Broncos have actually been more successful (26.9% success rate) than the Pats in recent years (23.6% conversion). Interestingly, their tendencies are almost identical - their run/pass balances are within 1.1% of each other. However, Denver has both rushed and passed for more yards per attempt on their way to a better first-down conversion rate within this statistic. This can be attributed, at least in great part, to two factors.

The first major factor is in rushing. Denver's much better O-Line, especially as the season progressed, was a huge factor in their running success. Seriously - does anyone believe that Tatum Bell, out of shape and filling in as a last-ditch effort, could have gotten his numbers if the line was still at its early-season level? The line was a big, big key to the Broncos' success as the season went on. Bobby Turner was probably Denver's most valuable factor in getting practice-squad and role players ready, but the line was a close second. To be honest, the backs themselves were a distant third, especially after Hillis went down.

The second major factor was Cutler's arm. That's one area where his strength as a quarterback really made a difference. In the new system, the emphasis that we can expect on the shorter throws will suit the arm strength of Simms or Orton.

If there is a third factor, it may be that Denver passed so much that teams at times seemed off-guard when they ran, and that may have produced some additional yardage and therefore more success on this and on other downs. It certainly shocked us when they ran.

On 3rd and short (1-2 yards)

Tendency and Success on 3rd & Short - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	Plays	Rush YPA	Rush%	Pass YPA	Pass%	Conversion %
DEN '07-'08	86	4.94	60.5%	6.21	39.5%	66.3%
NE '05-'08	178	3.39	65.7%	6.31	34.3%	69.7%

Again, we see a heavier reliance on the run by McDaniels in short-yardage situations, this time on 3rd down. The Patriots also managed a better conversion rate on 3rd and short with McDaniels calling plays despite their lesser YPA. It's a good example of their offensive efficiency. It's also important to note the small sample-size for Denver on these two charts (3rd and short/medium), as we are looking at only two seasons with Jay Cutler at the helm versus four years of Josh McDaniels' play-calling, and one season where the attrition at RB was enormous. Still, there should be enough here to show a trend.

This is yet another area that we can place the blame upon Bates' play-calling. As mentioned above, it is fair to say that the run-blocking wasn't that strong in the first few games of the 2008 season. As the season went on, however, and the O-Line meshed, the running game took off, but Bates inexplicably took it off the menu. It was bizarre.

It doesn't matter what kind of blocking scheme you use. If you don't know, with all your heart, that your O-Line and backs can pick up the yards you need on third and short (and even more so on 4th and short), you have a huge problem. If you have a back like Hillis or Pittman, whether you use him as a fullback or a halfback, and you don't use him driving behind your line to pick up this down, you're going to have serious problems as the season wears on.

On 3rd and medium (3-5 yards)

Tendency and Success on 3rd & Medium - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	Plays	Rush YPA	Rush%	Pass YPA	Pass%	Conversion %
DEN '07-'08	92	4.44	19.6%	4.19	80.4%	42.4%
NE '05-'08	216	3.92	22.7%	4.39	77.3%	45.8%

Once more, we see similar numbers, with a slightly more balanced attack from McDaniels and the Patriots to go along with a better conversion rate. The Patriots' rushing YPA continues to be lower, but they still have better production in terms of effective outcomes - achieving first downs. This is a another good example of the greater level of efficiency of the Patriots' attack under McDaniels.That's a coming change which suits Denver's players and needs. It's also another place where numbers can fool you. Yes, the Broncos had a better YPA with their overall rushing game - but did they use it enough, or at the proper times?

Combining the more appropriate use of the rushing attack with the efficiency of the short pass which New England has been noted for is going to be an exciting change in the Broncos' offense in years to come.

3rd and long (6+ yards)

Tendency and Success on 3rd & Long - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	Plays	Rush YPA	Rush%	Pass YPA	Pass%	Conversion %
DEN '07-'08	222	5.22	10.4%	7.82	89.6%	36.0%
NE '05-'08	468	4.36	16.5%	7.18	83.5%	33.8%

Again still, we see McDaniels calling for running plays far more frequently than the Broncos have in recent years, although in these 3rd-and-long situations this strategy was a bit less successful. This is another indicator of the unpredictable play-calling of the Pats. However, Denver is better in every category - yards per rush, yards per pass and first-down conversion rate.

This is a great example of the amoeba offense. They were constantly unpredictable. It's worth noting that they weren't as successful as the Broncos on this down and distance. However, over the course of the game, being unpredictable has notable advantages.

Here is another area where the arm of Jay Cutler probably made the difference. His 20 turnovers may have cost the team a lot, and he may have certain issues of professional maturity (focusing his eyes to much on his primary target, etc) but his arm, the effectiveness of his O-Line and the skill of the Broncos receivers combined to make the difference in this stat. Denver fans may take heart in remembering that two-thirds of the passing attack is coming back for the 2009 season.

On 4th Down

4th-down Success, DEN '07-'08 & NE '05-'08
	4th Dn M/A	4th Down %
DEN '07	7/22	31.8%
DEN '08	4/10	40.0%
DEN Avg	5.5/16	34.4%
NE '05	13/17	76.5%
NE '06	16/20	80.0%
NE '07	15/21	71.4%
NE '08	17/22	77.3%
NE Avg	15.3/20	76.3%

Aggression and success on 4th down - While Bill Belichick made the decision whether or not to go for it on 4th down, it was Josh McDaniels' play calls that made the Patriots remarkably successful on such attempts. Their 76.3% conversion rate over the past four seasons is nothing short of staggering. David Romer's Cal-Berkeley study on NFL coaches' decisions showed that coaches tend to make the wrong decision on 4th down, lowering their chances of winning by kicking rather than going for it.

The Broncos' sorry success rate is frustrating. They had an offensive line that wore out the superlatives and, for most of the season, a couple of good, big backs in Hillis and Pittman (to a lesser degree). What was the problem? There is no easy answer, but the tendency to pass, pass, pass too often led to fail, fail, fail.

Granted, Belichick has an awful lot of currency in New England and maybe he can afford to take these chances, eschewing the easy three points for the shot at a more decisive touchdown. Josh McDaniels may not have earned that same cachet, but hopefully he's got the guts to go for it when the math is in his favor. Belichick understood this, and he himself read Romer's study. Let's hope that he made it required reading for his entire offensive staff. Of course, sometimes going for it on 4th down is so exciting that the refs start to block.

Conclusions

So, given all of this, what conclusions can we draw? Some are simple, some are not. In a recent interview, McDaniels refused to answer some questions on the running game, saying that it was "secret." We don't know what the secret desire he hinted at with the running game is, but what do we know?

First, we know that McDaniels loves his gap blocking, using a pulling guard. Since we also know that Denver's guards have happy feet and nasty dispositions, that one is elementary. Denver will increase the rate of gap blocking. We'll also continue to see lots of zone blocking, and we love that Dennison and Turner are staying on. The entire offensive line is returning, and that alone is cause for serious joy. If the Broncos have a secret, or not-so-secret weapon, the O-Line is it.

The Running Game

We can expect a few changes on the halfback-side of the running game. McDaniels so far has made extensive use of the draw and of running between the tackles. Will that continue? It remains likely. Since his tackles in New England weren't great blockers, that could still change as he gets comfortable driving the tank that is the Broncos Front Five but only, we believe, in degree. As fine as Denver's tackles are, they will still be running more up the middle more next year. There is a long precedent.

In kenjutsu, the Japanese art of sword fighting, there is a principle - attack the center! It involves using your hara, your own energetic center, and dominating your opponent to the point that anything he does will fail. This principle is related to something called aiki - it is said that when a general who has mastered aiki mounts his horse, the opposing army will surrender. For the Broncos to apply this principle and break the will of the opposing defense, they need to be able to attack the center of that defense, combining a talented O-Line with effective inside running. It's a common principle in attacking the 3-4, which San Diego runs very well and Kansas City is changing to. The Broncos need to be able to run the ball well up the middle. The New England offense mastered that well. The Broncos' line is exceptional and they have the running backs to do so (although one more wouldn't hurt). Look for more runs up the middle this year.

One thing that the current halfback corps should love is that there will be an increased emphasis on passes to the backs. Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan and J.J. Arrington are all skilled here - so are Peyton Hillis and Selvin Young, while Ryan Torain seems to have some potential as well. More on that in a bit. Blocking skills will also be greatly appreciated. Hillis and Arrington, in particular, should benefit from that. All the others have at least some skills there to contribute.

The Injury Game

Will the running game depend upon a committee? Almost certainly. McDaniels made a comment to that effect on his radio interview on 104.3 The Fan. In Doc's opinion, that's a smart decision. Why?

The modern NFL player is bigger, stronger and faster than a decade ago. It wasn't long ago that a 300-pound offensive or defensive lineman was a matter for comment. Now, having one smaller than the 300-mark garners more conversation. In proportion, that extends to nearly every player on the field. That means a lot of young, stronger and faster players. One equation for force is mass times velocity squared (F = M x V²). The increase in mass is one factor. The modern increase in speed is even more of a problem for those on the receiving end of hits.

Modern training techniques (when employed) are producing young men who are stronger and faster at younger ages. The system that moves the best of the best from high school, to college, to the combine and on to the NFL will probably continue. Combined with modern nutrition, this will carry forward to produce the players who hit harder. This portends that injuries will continue to be a constant or rising problem.

Last year, a lot of folks pointed to Adrian Petersen, before the season, as a model of how you could use a back in the traditional system of a single workhorse back. But by the end of the year, he was battered, bruised, exhausted, and his production was lacking. He's as good a back as there is in the game, but he's now working on gaining muscular weight, a belated attempt to put a bigger layer of protection around his body. Drafting him a more skilled change-of-pace back or three would do even more for him. If he isn't platooned, at least in part, his productive career will be shortened.

In San Diego, LaDanian Tomlinson is facing some of the realities of life as a running back. He's spent much of the past two seasons injured, his production is down, and he's just turned thirty. Platooning with Darren Sproles will help, assuming Sproles chooses to sign his tender.

It's a tough game, and it won't get easier. The platooning system is one way of minimizing injuries, maximizing team production and increasing the life-span of your running backs. Doc believes that it's here to stay.

There may have been an over-emphasis on the role that injuries played in the Broncos' 2008 season. When the injury bug hit New England, they responded by bringing BenJarvus Green-Ellis up from the practice squad. In two games, as the primary ball-carrier, he produced 162 yards rushing with 2 touchdowns on 41 carries. In fact, the Patriots' balance actually increased from a 46.1%/53.9% rush/pass split to 75 rushes and 70 passes in those two games (51.7% rush). They responded by tossing the norms aside and rushing the damned ball. Although the Patriots split the two games (losing a heart-breaker in Indy and beating Buffalo), they dominated the clock with an average TOP of 36:02.

The Passing Game

The passing game should see a lot of changes, and we believed that Cutler would benefit from it. Since he's gone, could Simms and Orton also look for better numbers? Almost certainly. Not bigger - better. We felt like the Broncos lost the difference. The Patriots' emphasis on accuracy, consistency and taking what you are given instead of forcing in an effort to get the big play will help them maximize their natural gifts. The use of the running-back pass will also help, placing an emphasis on other check-down receiving options.

Keep in mind that as of right now, the Broncos have kept Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokley and Chad Jackson (for now), added Jabar Gaffney and have Scheffler and Graham as well as lesser luminaries. With the return of the entire offensive line, Denver has kept far more of its passing game then it has lost. The quarterbacks will show different skills, but both are talented young men. Given Coach McDaniels' level of knowledge and skill, it's not difficult to see that the Broncos' offense is in very good shape entering 2009.

Last season, Doc felt that Jeremy Bates had lost his way in the passing game by Week Four, particularly in one area. Do you remember the incredible stutter route with which Royal destroyed DeAngelo Hall in the Monday Night opener? Royal's early double-fake routes? Many of the innovations that thrilled us as fans in the first quarter of the season seemed to get lost as the season progressed. We've put it down to immaturity in coaching. The Broncos didn't make good adjustments and they left pieces that worked in a box, kicked under the bench.

This is another area where McDaniels' background could be a tremendous fit with the current Denver team. His maturity as a play-caller is undeniable. Those who question his professional intelligence need to spend some time with the Patriots' 2007 offensive stats. Even a team with the best of players needs the best of coaching to succeed.

New England has a player with great talent at receiver but who had a reputation for letting his emotional nature interfere with his personal life and professional career in Randy Moss (although he seems to have cleaned that up). Now, McDaniels has Brandon Marshall to mentor. The Patriots' passing attack also featured the great route-running of Wes Welker. Now Eddie Royal's abilities can be honed, developed and maximized in the same way, a thought that has to bother opposing defensive coordinators. And then there is Jabar Gaffney, already familiar with McDaniels' terminology and scheme and a solid, productive receiver in his own right. If you add Stokley, whose slot running is at times similar to Welker's, perhaps Chad Jackson and potentially, we believe, a receiver or tight end from the draft, you have a fantastic fit, merging old with new.

Tight Ends

Don't expect for a minute that Denver wants to trade Tony Scheffler unless the contracts have been signed. McDaniels used tight ends extensively in 2005 and even in 2006, but three things happened - Randy Moss, Wes Welker and the exit of Daniel Graham.

Although Graham has always wanted to be used more as a receiver, he's too valuable as a two-way threat. Graham was lauded by McDaniels when the two worked together, and with the preference for the pass and for multiple receivers including a tight end, Scheffler will be likely to get his catches if he stays healthy.

The H-back Role

Consider, for a moment, the possible role of the player that we like to call an H-back. As those of you who have read Doc's article The H-Back: Using the Magic Option know, he's always a little leery of this term, because it's often used without context or specific meaning. However, for right now, let's consider it as a running back who can play near the line and receive, but who can function in the running game as well - carrying, blocking in addition to his position as a back/receiver.

Doc: I know that I've mentioned Peyton Hillis in this role, and it's impossible to ignore his potential effectiveness as an H-back. But to pigeon-hole him in that position is to ignore how New England employed their running backs at times.

McDaniels employed a shotgun-spread formation with two or three wideouts, one tight end and a back, all spread out across the field near the line. At times he would do this with only four players - two wideouts, one tight end and one back, but he could and did substitute an extra WR or TE into the play. The running back was simply used as a receiver. Could Hillis be effective in this role? Heck Yes! He could do some serious damage.

But, so could Buckhalter, Arrington or Jordan. Many people have questioned McDaniels' acquisition of these players without carefully considering the context of his play-calling. Taken in the context of adding weapons to the arsenal whose tactics match those McDaniels employed in New England, they make perfect sense - and Young and Torain, if they can stay healthy, could certainly flourish here as well.

In one sense of this all-too-often loose term, any and all of these players can move into the H-back role. We often limit our thinking to a back/tight end who plays near the line in addition to the tight ends. That's one way to talk about it - perhaps the closest to what HoosierTeacher spoke of in his seminal piece, Football University - The Coming Storm (Magic 3). But whatever the terminology, New England played a running back in a wideout role in addition to the tight end(s) commonly, and that's a potent weapon that all of Denver's current backs can provide.

Since the Patriots' version of the spread formation tried to expand the field horizontally as well as vertically, look for increased use of routes that employ unusual angles, as New England did with Welker, bringing him across the field to that low crossing-route. Expect to see the tight end to drop into a halfback slot, multiple tight-end sets that will often look familiar and a lot of motion from the tight ends. Anticipate more receivers on the field: wide receivers, tight ends and running backs. Unless there is a major reason, look for the fullback (whoever it is), to have a limited, but essential role - keeping the blitzers off the quarterback. And expect McDaniels to thank his karma for permitting him to use the Denver O-Line.

We believe that the new season will see an increase in the Broncos' scoring. The problems that the Broncos had were generally ones in which the coaching played a big role. The discomfort with running effectively at the goal line was sad to see. Next year, the play calling will be quite different. If history is any judge, it will be much better.

And finally - expect the plays to change each week, and to see the Broncos finally make offensive and defensive adjustments during the games and during the season. It will take time to establish the new offensive and defensive approaches. This is not a small thing that Denver has decided to do. But in the end, we believe that all signs point to a good outcome, and a steady development of the Broncos' players and team over the next two years. McDaniels understands how to win now and build for the future concurrently. His words and

Divining the McDaniels Way, Part 2 - The Running Game

Emmett Smith — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 17:30:09 -0000

This series is the outcome of a month-long collaboration between nycbroncosfan and broncobear. In general, NYC covered the stats and Doc handled most of the writing and analysis. We hope that it sheds light on some of the questions that have arisen as to just what, exactly, Josh McDaniels has been doing with the New England offense over the past four years. It also looks at Jay Cutler's time as the primary starter in Denver over the past two years to establish where the two Patriots and Broncos do and do not match up. We thoroughly enjoyed working on this project and hope that you will take just as much pleasure in reading it. Hopefully it will answer some of your questions about what to expect of the 2009 Broncos, and we look forward to your comments and critiques. Many thanks to our esteemed colleagues styg50 and hoosierteacher for their input, and to Zappa for his invaluable aid in managing the code and the templates.

Note: In light of Denver's trade of Jay Cutler to the Bears, we decided to push back the schedule of our series. Today we present Part 2, with Part 3 now scheduled for Friday, April 10th and Part 4 following on Tuesday, April 14th.

The Broncos Running Attack

In Part 1 of our look at The McDaniels Way, we provided a view of what new Broncos Head Coach Josh McDaniels may look to achieve on offense in 2009. Part 1 covered more of the general goals - higher efficiency of yards and point-scoring, better control of the game clock, and more success in red-zone and goal-to-go situations. Today, we will address the facet so many of us have/had strongly identified with Broncos football, especially with the noted successes of the recently-departed Mike Shanahan - the Denver running game.

As noted in NYC's The Fall of the Denver Rushing Attack, the Broncos' commitment to the run has waned significantly in recent years. After averaging 508 carries per season from 1995 to 2005, the 2008 Broncos only ran the ball 387 times. While they maintained a strong YPA (Yards Per Attempt) of 4.8, their relatively small number of carries led to fewer first downs via the ground game (103 versus an average of 125/year from 1995-2005) and poor clock control (28:43 in '08 versus 32:15 from '95-'08).

In terms of gross yardage, the falloff went from an average of 2,264 yards per season (1995-2005) to just 1,862 in 2008. The rushing attack also failed to produce big individual games, as the '08 Broncos only topped 175 rushing yards once, although that number was padded by a 71-yard carry by WR Eddie Royal on an end-around (in the crushing home loss to Buffalo, incidentally). Compare that to the Broncos of 1995-2005, who topped 175 yards in a game on an average of 4.6 times per season. Without the benefit of a strong running game, one which never even dominated a single game in 2008, the pressure was focused squarely upon Jay Cutler and the passing attack.

At first glance, the hiring of Josh McDaniels seemed only a continuation of Denver's move to a pass-dominant offense. This is certainly a natural and excusable assumption, as Tom Brady's 4,806 yards and 50 touchdown passes of 2007 quickly come to mind. However, it is important to consider that 2007 may have been an anomaly, a remarkable alignment of the stars which allowed for arguably the greatest offensive performance by a team in any one year. Even so, the '07 Pats ranked 9th in the NFL in rushing attempts with 451 and 5th in rushing touchdowns with 17; while not dominant rushing numbers, they certainly evidence a commitment to the run. The Patriots' 2006 and 2008 numbers show an even greater offensive balance, which we will share in a bit.

So, what can we expect of Josh McDaniels' Denver Broncos when it comes to running the football?

The O-Line

Performance of Pats and Broncos O-Lineman in 2008 and 2009 Season Age
	NE Starters	'09 Age	Starts	Sacks	Pen	Sks+Pen	DEN Starters	'09 Age	Starts	Sacks	Pen	Sks+Pen
LT	Light	31	16	7.5	1	8.5	Clady	23	16	0.5	3	3.5
LG	Mankins	27	16	5	2	7	Hamilton	32	16	2.5	6	8.5
C	Koppen	30	16	4.5	2	6.5	Wiegmann	36	16	1	3	4
RG	Neal(Yates)	33(29)	9(7)	2(6.25)	2(1)	4(7/25	Kuper	27	16	0	4	4
RT	Kaczur(LeVoir)	30(27)	14(2)	4(2)	3(0)	7(2)	Harris	24	16	2.5	2	4.5
Tot/Avg		30.2	80	31.25	11	42.25		28.4	80	6.5	18	24.5

The above chart is a position-by-position comparison of New England and Denver's starting offensive lines from 2008. Although it mostly deals with passing-down numbers, in some areas the chart gives us clues about rushing as well. Looking across the LT column, Matt Light will be 31 years old during the 2009 NFL season. He started 16 games in 2008, was charged with 7.5 sacks and 1 penalty was accepted and attributed to him. Continuing across are Ryan Clady's numbers. Looking below at the RG row, right guard Stephen Neal started only 9 games, while Billy Yates filled in for the other 7 games. Yates' stats follow Neal's in parentheses - the same goes for Mark LeVoir, who filled in for Nick Kaczur in 2 contests. The stats attributed to Yates and LeVoir are part of the Pats' total, in order to adequately compare the starting lines of both teams: 5 starters x 16 games = 80 starts per team. What also must be noted is that team sack totals do not match up with those sacks attributed to the offensive line. For example, many of us know the Broncos' quarterbacks were only sacked 12 times in 2008. However, only 6.5 of those were attributed to the starting linemen, while the balance were charged to backups, tight ends and to the quarterbacks themselves (coverage sacks).

The issue of injuries may explain some things that came up on video. After watching the six games of film, the only real surprise that Doc had was the uneven work of the Patriots' offensive line. He said,

"I was surprised at how poorly they played in certain areas. That made it hard to obtain or understand some of the info on tendencies. Often, the line wasn't effective enough in the run or, especially, in the passing game. And yet, that's hard to see if you look at the numbers - unless you look carefully.

I watched a lot of running plays that were blown up at or behind the line of scrimmage because the O-Line couldn't move the defenders. Often the runners managed to get small yards anyway, and that's more a tribute to the runners than anything else. The passing problems showed up more in the stats.

However, even after saying that I have to point out the other side: according to FootballOutsiders.com, NE had the 5th-best rate of being stuffed, at 21% (Denver was 1st at 17%). Denver had the #1 run-blocking efficiency - but NE was #2. Again - they are very efficient. But for the Pats, one reason that number is so good was that the RBs commonly broke tackles behind the line, fell forward and almost inevitably gained a couple of yards. They had a very tough group, and adding Jordan to the Broncos, knee surgery and all, is a great addition. They also had the best percentage of 1st downs per carry at 28.3% (Denver was second at 26.6%) even though they were fourth in the league for rushing attempts (513).

A lot of that was the scheme, and some of the rest could be attributed to simple effectiveness at carrying out assignments on the part of the RBs - and to Cassel, who ran often with 73 attempts and a total of 270 yards and a 3.7 average. In his two full seasons, Cutler averaged 50.5 rushes for only 202.5 yards, so the difference there is obvious.

You also have to look at where they run and run well, and where they don't. They weren't productive at left or right end, or at right tackle, although left tackle (except on pass pro) and the middle of the line plays were usually very good."

There are discrepancies between the New England offensive line's certain very good stats and their obvious failures. For example, they were 1st in the league for rushing 1st-downs with 145, but they were only ranked 19th-best in the league converting on 3rd-and-short via the run, a category that is telling for the line. The Patriots' offensive line was quite a mixed bag in 2008, and that showed on the film. We will talk about the passing side of their equation tomorrow but on the rushing side, Doc saw players who were missing assignments and who weren't getting to the second level consistently.

A brief look across the league shows that the Patriots' O-Line is older than the norm, and that the right side in particular saw a lot of injuries over the course of the season, which may be part of the reason that they weren't as good as expected. Their tackles are seven years older than the Broncos', on average. Even factoring in the advanced ages of Casey Wiegmann and Ben Hamilton, the New England line is two years older than the Broncos across the starting five. Their size/weight numbers are roughly comparable to the Broncos.

We asked styg50 about the issue of offensive linemen and aging. Was the gap scheme wearing on the players? Could age, at about 30, be the issue with their poor play, (especially on passing downs)? He said,

"My first thought, is that everybody is different, so some guys might not be affected while other guys are significantly affected. The main trait of the pulling guard(or center) is good footwork, and to a lesser extent the core strength to re-engage quickly on the move, which has "balance" as its primary indicator when watching them. It is reasonable to assume that as a player ages, his footwork might suffer and become "heavier" or slower, but I think this applies more to heavier linemen who stay heavy. O-Linemen are generally no stranger to heavy lifting and maintaining and increasing lean muscle mass, but as they age they need to be open to the idea of increasing flexibility and agility, which should always lean towards playing at lighter and lighter weights.

The plus side of aging as a pulling lineman, is that you have to be able to locate and line up your block, which becomes even more difficult if it is intended to occur at the second level, and that is more about experience than anything. Hamilton and Nalen were good examples of guys who could block out to the third level, which is exceptionally difficult for a lineman, and they could do it because of how quick they were/are and how savvy they are about lining up the block. Rookies and young players didn't stand a chance against them."

Regarding the Broncos, Styg added,

"As to zone-block increasing players' longevity, I think it has more to do with what players have been tapped for zone-block: smarter, lighter, more agile. The smarter could aid them in whole-body health, the lighter reduces Isaac Newton's effect on them, and the agile protects them in the game itself, helping them avoid contortion strains and the like. The zone-block seems as likely to me as any other system to expose players to abuse by virtue of the system itself, but HT can answer that question better than I can. What wears players out more than anything is going to the ground and having to get back up again (barring the occasional 79-yard fumble return, which is more about oxygen than anything) and that occurs a lot in zone-block."

HT (hoosierteacher) was kind enough to weigh in as well. His comments centered on two things - the abilities of the players in terms of balance and flexibility, and their abilities to work together:

"The Denver OLmen are culled from the masses because they have either the inherent ability or trained ability to use flexibility and agility from early on. Teams with less of a focus on pure zone-blocking will age less gracefully. "Big and strong" diminishes over time. Flexibility and agility, if maintained from an early age, can last much longer on the football field.

I hate to keep coming back to martial arts. I know you and Styg are experts in the field, while I'm just an amazed spectator. (lol). But you guys will appreciate the analogy. The old man who is a martial-arts master seems to have the advantage over younger men who are more physically fit. In MMA competitions, we never seem to see these old men. But I know that I've been to studios (dojos) where I've seen old (frankly ancient) guys who have techniques and experience to beat up on the younger guys present.

While football is a little different, there is a similarity. While age slows all of us, it is going to slow physical qualities (such as strength) quicker than skills that are harder to quantify (such as balance, agility, footwork). Teams that look for these types of players are going to have players with more longevity. They also get the boost of having players that play together longer, which is a key for any offensive line.

The only thing that really keeps too many teams from moving towards zone-blocking is the pool of players to draw from. When too many teams try to move towards zone-blocking, the pool decreases. The teams already established in ZB have enough players who have played together in the system, while newer teams will struggle because they have to get more players from the drafts. If enough teams could establish themselves, colleges (the suppliers) would feed the demand, but it would take several years. In the meantime, teams with successful zone-blocking linemen should hold onto what they have, needing only to pick up a player here and there."

Professor Barber, the master instructor who Doc had the privilege to train under in martial arts used to assure him that "old age and treachery will conquer youth and skill." Given that and the direction of our two resident experts, we suspect that the issues of injury to the lower body, combined with a need to frequently adjust to different combinations of players were at the heart of New England's woes along the offensive line.

On the other end of the offensive-line universe, Josh McDaniels has to salivate at the idea of installing his scheme behind what is arguably the best line in the NFL. They are mostly younger (and Casey Wiegmann still has great skills) with Ryan Clady entering only his second year and Ryan Harris just his third (second as a starter). Chris Kuper is looking at only his fourth season. Ben Hamilton is 31, and Wiegmann is pretty spry for an old man (Casey will turn 36 during training camp). Primary backup Kory Lichtensteiger is getting good early reviews in the middle, and Tyler Polumbus showed promise at tackle, even taking some reps at center..

Small wonder, then, that the Broncos' new coach kept Rick Dennison to coach the line and Bobby Turner to coach the running backs. Josh McDaniels is a very smart young man, and those decisions were probably not very difficult for him. The Broncos may need better depth, but the line is first-rate in its current incarnation. After watching this film, Doc appreciated it even more. So will McDaniels. You may not see another season where every Broncos lineman starts all sixteen games, but these guys are very, very good nevertheless.

Much has been made regarding Josh McDaniels' comments on instituting a higher level of 'gap' blocking as well as the zone-block scheme. It is important for the fan to recognize that Denver ran some solid gap-blocking last year, and that Hamilton and Kuper both excel in pulling; so the change should not be a concern. In fact, the reality is that no major changes are indicated. But McDaniels is sitting on something new in how the line and the running backs will function, and he so far isn't letting much slip. McDaniels only said,

"We did more gap schemes in New England, where we're going to pull a guard. The good thing about Denver is they've done those things, and they've got really good guards to be able to do that."

Watching the Broncos O-Line closely, both Hamilton and Kuper, light-footed as guards go, were pulling on several plays each game. The biggest difference Doc sees is that the Broncos were even better at it than New England was.

As an aside, a recent segment on NFL Total Access suggested that Ryan Clady will be the 'Surprise' player of 2009. We can only suggest that the hosts weren't watching much film, as Clady was arguably the great surprise player of 2008. The only shock that he could provide in 2009 is if he's not elevated from Second-Team to First-Team All-Pro.

Ryan Harris was nearly as good, and Denver's pair of tackles is equal or superior to any other set of bookends in the NFL. Kuper has turned into a fine young guard, and if Ben Hamilton is the Broncos' 'weak link' as some have stated, Denver has but some very small problems to deal with. Wiegmann's contract will likely be renegotiated to keep him in town for a couple of more years, and in that time the Broncos will have settled on their backups and groomed their new center. Lichtensteiger may be best at either center or guard, but Polumbus has taken snaps effectively at center as well as at tackle. The Broncos probably need one more good backup, and they have some options already on the practice squad. they will, if our member's drafts are any indication, take another in the draft.

The Running Backs

Rush/Pass Splits
	Rush %	Pass %
DEN '07	44%	56%
DEN '08	38%	62%
DEN Avg	39%	61%
NE '05	42.6%	57.4%
NE '06	47.3%	52.7%
NE '07	42.6%	57.4%
NE '08	46.8%	53.2%
NE Avg	43.1%	56.9%

In terms of total plays, New England ran the ball 46.8% of the time in 2008. Over the 4-year period of 2005-2008, the Patriots exhibited a 43.1% rush, 56.9% pass balance. Despite their pass-first reputed approach, they like a fairly balanced attack. Meanwhile, the Broncos were the second-most pass-reliant offense in the NFL, behind only Arizona and tied with New Orleans last season. Obviously, Denver's running back injuries and the elevation of Jeremy Bates to play-caller factored in. Bates' preference for passing was quickly obvious to even casual Broncos fans. That reliance on the pass placed a lot on Jay Cutler, but it also led to predictability in the passing game, which we will discuss in Part 3. Few fans will mind the fact that Bates won't be deciding if or when to run the ball in 2009.

However, it should be noted that New England also suffered several injuries to their offensive backfield; top backs Laurence Maroney, LaMont Jordan and Sammy Morris all missing significant time. This forced the Patriots to sign BenJarvus Green-Ellis from their practice squad and give him the bulk of carries for two games. Interestingly, their commitment to the run did not wane - with Green-Ellis as their primary ball carrier in weeks 9 and 10 versus the Colts and Bills, respectively, New England rushed 75 times and Matt Cassel dropped back to pass 70 times. This represents a 51.7% run/pass split. No, the Patriots' and Broncos' backfield situations were not identical, but New England's run commitment with a practice-squad running back may serve to lessen the excuse provided by Denver's injuries.

The acquisitions of running backs with a history of good receiving numbers (and comparatively low miles, despite the issues with Correll Buckhalter's or J.J. Arrington's respective knees) would tend to indicate that Denver will be moving to the New England-style of running back usage. Let's look at what that was last year:

The Patriots' top runner in 2008 was Sammy Morris, with 156 carries for 727 yards, for a 4.7-yard average (he also took some snaps at fullback). LaMont Jordan had 80 carries for 353 yards and a 4.5 average. Kevin Faulk had 507 yards on just 83 carries for an explosive average of 6.0 yards per carry. Meanwhile, 2006 1st-round draft choice Laurence Maroney had only 28 carries for 93 yards, and New England has made it known that they aren't pleased with the young back. Then you have little-known Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, who filled in brilliantly with 74 carries and 275 yards. They spread the ball around, and they ran to the tune of 513 carries last season. That's bad news for those Broncos fans that yearn for a 1st-round back pounding and dodging his way into Canton. It seems very unlikely to happen under McDaniels. But it's good news if you like a well-balanced attack.

New England has some great numbers. They are very efficient - They were 6th in the league in big runs (carries of 10 or more yards), with 55 such plays. They were only 10th in the league in yards per carry (4.7), but 4th in rushing touchdowns with 21 in 2008. They know how to score, and the Broncos will benefit from that knowledge. As you'd expect, they don't leave a running back in the game for long. Rotation is common and at times it is a constant. They are into ‘fresh legs'. Some describe an inability of the back to ‘get into a groove' when rotated. That's in opposition to the NE idea of doing a job perfectly in execution each time, regardless. Faulk was at times their first option, or Morris or even Maroney, but they ran a wide variety of plays for all the backs.

We should also look at the scheme that Denver employs. In his article Denver's Unique Running Back System, Doc noted that a Denver running back needs the following qualities:

They have to put the team before their own stats and ego.
They have to block, run routes, chip and receive well, in addition to their running skills and intelligence.
They need excellent field vision, defensive-scheme comprehension and the neuromuscular abilities to see and respond very quickly (advanced proprioception).
They have to put the coaches' knowledge before their own "I've done it this way my whole life" approach.
They have to be able to come in from the bench and do their jobs well immediately without needing to ‘get into a groove'.

SlowWhiteGuy wrote,

"I would add one quality that is essential for backs in the Turner/Dennison system. They must trust the system, more than their ability. There actually is nothing that unique about Denver’s zone-blocking system; lots of teams use ZB. What is unique is the way they combine it with the 1-cut system. Denver stresses that the back must wait to make his cut until the backside pursuit has been sealed off. Most backs want to cut into the hole as soon as it opens, but that’s not Denver’s way. In fact you will often hear complaints about runners being too slow to the hole.

One of the reasons that Denver selects back lower in the draft is that backs who are selected more highly tend to have depended on their athletic/physical skill set. They are reluctant to abandon what got them to the pros. Lower round backs tend to be less physically gifted and have made it through hard work honing their technique. They are used to succeeding through study and hard work. For them, trusting the system comes more naturally; it’s an extension of what got them to the pros."

Can the two systems mesh? Absolutely. Denver has gone out in the offseason and added running backs who they feel can integrate into the zone-block scheme, catch passes out of the backfield and block well. They may be running the draw, running up the middle, some to the sides, although less. They will be catching passes, blocking for the pass and creating mismatches. McDaniels said as much the day after the Cutler trade and we were predicting the same before he did. By the way, he was also praising Hillis. Doc feels better now.

Rushing TDs, First Downs, Fumbles
	Rush TDs	1st Dns	Fumbles/Lost
DEN '07	10	96	30/14
DEN '08	15	103	18/12
DEN Avg	12.5	99.5	24/13
NE '05	16	101	19/9
NE '06	20	121	27/15
NE '07	17	124	14/6
NE '08	21	145	17/10
NE Avg	18.5	122.75	19.25/10

More Rushing TDs - New England has certainly been considered a pass-first offense in recent years and rightfully so, but only to an extent. In the red zone, the Patriots went to their running attack to dominate their scoring. As mentioned earlier, they have shown more balance than Denver and have run for a lot more touchdowns than the Broncos in recent years. Remember all of those goal-to-go situations that resulted in the dreaded chip-shot field goals lately? Hopefully Coach McDaniels' new offense will put those memories to rest. We shall see.

The Patriots had an interesting stat as far as scoring touchdowns. The Patriots top 5 scorers broke down this way: Randy Moss led the team with his 11 trips to the end zone, while four running backs ranked behind him [Morris (7), Faulk (6), Green-Ellis (5) and Jordan(4)]. For Denver, the top five had Peyton Hillis and Brandon Marshall tied for the team lead with 6 total touchdowns, followed by Eddie Royal (5), Daniel Graham and Michael Pittman (4 each). Tony Scheffler and Brandon Stokley had 3 each. That should look very different at the end of the 2009 season - look for more touchdowns out of Denver's offensive backfield. When Tom Brady went down, the Patriots went from 17 rushing TDs in '07 to 21 in '08. As they always do, they adapted their game to the new QB and moved on, efficiently.

More Rushing First Downs - The 2008 numbers jump off the screen - The Patriots moved the chains 145 times via the ground game, while the Broncos only did so on 103 occasions. As NYC mentioned in his earlier piece, every Broncos team which made the playoffs under Mike Shanahan had at least 124 rushing first downs. Granted, that is a correlative statistic, but we can probably all agree that the Broncos need better balance on offense.

Given the number of yards that the Broncos rolled up in '08, you would expect at least an average number of rushing TDs. The lack of that, in our opinion, shows something other than the oft-mentioned 'injuries' excuse. The Broncos were rushing for 4.8 yards per carry. Failing to use the rushing attack was, in our opinion, more of a factor of the play-calling of Bates than any deficiency in the rushing game.

Making a more balanced use of the rushing attack will have the added benefits of eating more of the clock and resting the defense. We believe that McDaniels' greater experience as an offensive coordinator will benefit the Broncos in this area.

Fewer Fumbles - Even more so than interceptions, this statistic may be more about personnel than coaching, but New England has put the ball on the ground less than Denver, and hopefully things will change there as well.

Rush-Direction Propensity Broken Down by Gap - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	LE(5)	LT(3)	LG(1)	C(0)	RG(2)	RT(4)	RE(6)
DEN '07-'08	16.7%	13.8%	6.3%	30.2%	8.7%	11.8%	12.5%
NE '05-'08	11.5%	13.1%	12.9%	29.8%	14.1%	12.3%	6.3%

More inside running - Certainly this may be somewhat attributable to personnel, but scheme was the final determinant of where each team ran. Denver has run for the most part around and behind Ryan Clady, Tom Nalen/Casey Wiegmann and Ryan Harris/Daniel Graham. Meanwhile, New England has run behind their guards almost twice as often as the Broncos have. Of course the retention of offensive-line coach Rick Dennison and running-backs coach Bobby Turner will have a lot to say about the Broncos' running game, but look for McDaniels' single-back sets to get more use out of the 1- and 2-gaps than the Broncos have under Mike Shanahan's tutelage.

From the game films, the Patriots preferred in 2008 to use the draw play heavily and keep their running backs between the tackles. If a back went to the outside, they were usually going to receive, and when they ran there they weren't very productive. The screen pass was an effective weapon for NE and that's inline with their overall preference to keep passes shorter and completions high.

Using the Fullback

If McDaniels goes with the same ideas of a fullback in Denver that he used in New England, it is potentially a good role for Spencer Larsen, who noted that he was uncomfortable handling the ball: in this offense, he wouldn't need to worry. The Pats' fullback, Heath Evans, only had 11 carries for 23 yards over 16 games in 2008, or 0.7 carries per game. The rest of the time when Evans was used (about 1 play in 7), he blocked. The use of Evans in 2008 was basic and for the most part unoriginal, which struck Doc as odd given the range with which they used other weapons. For the most part, he was a blocker - period. While we would like to watch Larsen on the field more and would prefer him at LILB, we could see him being very effective in a Heath Evans-type of role.

Of course, if Coach McDaniels chooses to stay with the idea of a fullback who is essentially there to block, Andrew Pinnock may be the perfect choice, and that would free Larsen to do what we believe he does best - blow people up on special teams and play inside linebacker. Doc has been especially interested in watching this aspect, and he thinks that keeping Pinnock but letting some other backs go (Anthony Alridge, Alex Haynes and P.J. Pope) spoke volumes on McDaniels' part.

The use of Heath Evans is a good illustration of how the Patriots adapted their offense to the players available. Prior to picking up Evans in 2005 (one week after Evans was cut by Miami), the Pats were making use of a 5'10", 217-lb player, Patrick Pass, at fullback. Because of his size and skill set, Pass was greatly used as a receiver and had hauled in 23 receptions prior to being injured in November of 2005. Late in October, Pass was even used as a halfback due to multiple injuries to his backfield mates. However, the switch from the lighter Pass to the 250-pound, hard-blocking Evans eventually brought about a change of scheme.

Injuries to Corey Dillon, Kevin Faulk and Pass pushed Evans into an immediate starting role at halfback, and he excelled with 158 rushing yards on 33 carries in two games. He also was used effectively as a pass-catcher, very much as the Patriots had used Pass. Over the next three seasons, however, Evans got fewer and fewer touches, culminating in just 11 carries and 3 catches in 2008. From Patriots.com following the 2006 season,

"The 6-foot, 250-pounder has spent the majority of the season lining up as the fullback in the I-formation, where he has served as a lead blocker and short-yardage specialist, but has also expanded his role as a pass catcher, even lining up as a split end at times. He has been a big contributor on special teams and is also known as one of the friendliest players in the locker room."

McDaniels may not have liked him receiving, and may not have used him as a running back very much, but Evans was a versatile and effective contributor nonetheless. However, the limits of his use as a runner and receiver show a possible prejudice on McDaniels part, since Evans was a star running back in college, has run very well for New England and showed himself to be a good receiver in 2005. However, as time passed McDaniels' preference for using the fullback became clear - short yardage and lead blocking.

Many Broncos fans were disappointed that Hillis, when at fullback, was not used more as a receiver and in a Howard Griffith-type role before first becoming their star runner and then being injured. That was indicative of the change to Bates' system, such as it was. The modern fullback is being used less and less, both in NE and during this time frame in Denver. Eventually, we may see the change to a FB/H-back (for Denver, the pieces are there), but it isn't happening often or quickly, despite frequent comments about 'H-backs' in the media, a phrase that usually seems to simply mean a tight end who receives. That's not an H-back at all, but we understand what they are saying.

Still, change is the only constant. This year's draft is relatively deep in fullbacks. Andrew Pinnock, if he sticks, could get some competition in Denver, but it's not a priority. In 2008, the fullback slot went to Michael Pittman, then Hillis, then to Spencer Larsen, and to heck in a handcart by the time the season mercifully closed. Let's hope for greener pastures this year. Pinnock is just what McDaniels usually wants at the position - a strong blocker who is team oriented.

Balancing the Run and the Pass

When watching film on the Pats, the issue of run/pass balance came out in the difference between halves. New England was 26th league-wide in first-half runs called, 14th in the second half. These run/pass ratios are exactly the theories that went into building the West-Coast Offense, but despite a common misperception, the Patriots run a modern variant on the Erhardt-Perkins system. Their approach is less smash-mouth. It uses the pass more. However, since Erhardt is reputed to have said, "Pass to score, run to win", the McDaniels version of this approach (which was originally installed by Charlie Weis and has morphed and adapted to changes in personnel often since) uses the pass more in the first half and runs more in the second. A glance at their record also confirms that teams which have the lead in the second half will tend to run more.

But running the ball is often only half the battle on offense. Passing is the dominant attack for most teams, and both Denver and New England have exhibited that. On Friday, we will examine the passing game in Part 3 of our series.

New England Patriots - Rookie and Sophomore Contributions (Part 1)

NESilver — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 16:30:06 -0000

Hey everyone, welcome to the NESilver version of Pats Pulpit! That's right! I'm taking over! Mwahaha... oh, sorry, did I say that out loud? Ahem. Anyway... I'll be taking over the stat duties, and splitting time with MaPatsFan on position profiles and free agent signings. We'll get a good rotation going there. Consider us a bit like Gary Guyton and Tedy Bruschi, or Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris. Wait, does that mean one of us is gonna be injured frequently? Hmm... this wasn't in the job description...

Okay, so with that out of the way, I wanted to focus on our most recent draftees with my first post. I figured that would be a good way to kick things off, since we're getting closer to the draft and all. It's an exciting time of year, where everyone's excited about how well their team will do next season, and you can definitely include me in that bunch. Just for the record, I am a BIG optimist and a major homer for our New England Patriots, which means I fully expect every single one of our draftees to turn into studs and Pro-Bowlers every year. Is that really so unreasonable? I sure don't think so.

With that said, here's the list of our draft picks for the past two years who are currently still a part of the team.

Sophomores (2007 Class)
Brandon Meriweather - 1st Round, 24th overall
Mike Richardson - 6th Round, 202nd overall
Matt Gutierrez - Undrafted Rookie Free Agent

Rookies (2008 Class)
Jerod Mayo - 1st Round, 10th overall
Terrence Wheatley - 2nd Round, 62nd overall
Shawn Crable - 3rd Round, 78th overall
Kevin O'Connell - 3rd Round, 94th overall
Jonathan Wilhite - 4th Round, 129th overall
Matthew Slater - 5th Round, 153rd overall
Bo Ruud - 6th Round, 197th overall
Gary Guyton - Undrafted Rookie Free Agent
BenJarvus Green-Ellis - Undrafted Rookie Free Agent
Vince Redd - Undrafted Rookie Free Agent

As you probably gathered from the title, I'll be splitting this into two parts. We'll start with the sophomore class in this post. Bill Belichick has often said that the biggest leap in improvement for a football player is usually between their first and second year in the league (which means we should be pretty excited about some of our rookies who got significant playing time this year - woohoo!).

The big name on that list is Brandon Meriweather, our first rounder from 2007. He began his first year predominantly on special teams, though he did occasionally see time on defense. He recorded 27 tackles in his first year, and although he seemed to be around the ball often enough, the big knock against him were the interceptions he dropped. He dropped at least three of them, including a potential game-ender against the Baltimore Ravens and another one during the playoffs, in "The game that shall not be mentioned." Despite showing some potential, there were some people who were a little down on him. Here are the stats for his second year:

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2008 - Brandon Meriweather	16	2.0	19	4	25	0	57	20	77

In 2008, he became a bigger part of the rotation at safety with Sanders and Harrison, and he worked hard during the offseason to improve those stone hands with a jugs machine. The difference was clearly noticeable this past year, as Meriweather notched his first career interception during Week 2 against the Jets, picking off the non-retired Brett Favre. After Rodney Harrison was injured on Week 7 and done for the season, Meriweather didn't miss a single snap on defense (according to Reiss, he was present for 85% of the defensive snaps in total), recording 83 total tackles (I'm going off NFL.com with this one, SBNation says 77 for some reason), 4 interceptions, and 9 passes defended.. He also notched two sacks, including a strip-sack to clinch the game against the Seattle Seahawks. While there's still plenty of room for improvement, Brandon Meriweather looks to be a keeper thus far.

Mike Richardson and Matt Gutierrez are more difficult to gauge in terms of improvement. Both of these players are far down the depth chart, and because they don't see a ton of playing time, there aren't many stats to work with (so no pretty little stat box for these guys). Richardson spent his entire rookie season on IR and started his 2008 campaign on the practice squad. He was finally activated to the roster during Week 7 against the Denver Broncos. He played for six games and recorded 17 total tackles.

Matt Gutierrez got a little bit of playing time in 2007 when games were far out of reach, but nothing significant. In 2008, he was being hyped up by the media as the guy who would supplant Matt Cassel for the backup quarterback position, only to get cut at the end of preseason (though he was later brought back to the practice squad). However, when Tom Brady was injured, Gutierrez found himself back on the roster as the emergency quarterback, so he's managed to stick around. Bill Belichick has praised him for his strong work ethic before, but he finds himself behind Kevin O'Connel and Tom Brady heading into 2009. In preseason, he went 29-of-45 for 362 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He saw no playing time during the regular season.

Next fanpost I'll focus on our gigantic rookie class (at least, in comparison to the sophomores).