SB Nation - Chad Henne

Dolphins vs Titans: Matchup Analysis

Matty I — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 18:34:32 -0000

If the Titans want to force Chad Henne to beat them, with the secondary they have, I'll take my chances.

Rather than do a simple five question exchange this week to discuss the Dolphins/Titans game with a blogger from Music City Miracles - SBN's Titans blog - we've done something different this week. Jimmy from MCM and I have decided to share our thoughts on which team has an advantage in each phase of the game. Check it out below and then tell us what you think.

Dolphins Offense vs Titans Defense

Matty I: Advantage Dolphins
Any way I seem to look at this matchup, I can't see how the Dolphins don't have at least a little bit of an advantage. Tennessee's secondary has been giving up yards through the air at a rate worst than most of the NFL. And while the Titans haven't been overly hurt by the departure of Albert Haynesworth, their 4.2 yards allowed per carry is average at best. Miami has been playing their best offensive football all season over the past four weeks, averaging 355 yards per game in that span and I think that the Dolphins will use a well-balanced offensive attack on Sunday to move the football with relative consistency.

Jimmy: Push
The reason I go push here is because the Titans struggles on defense have come against the pass, and the strength of the Dolphins offense is running the ball. The Titans haven’t been outstanding against the run, but they have been solid. Chad Henne appears to be playing pretty well, but I am not sure he has the weapons to take advantage of the Titans weaknesses in the secondary like Manning, Brady and Schaub have done this season. The Titans are going to try to take away Ricky Williams and make Henne beat them. I am not sold yet that he will be able to.

Titans Offense vs Dolphins Defense

Matty I: Advantage Titans
If you've been reading my thoughts at all this week, then you'd know the amount of respect I have for Chris Johnson. He's the most explosive player in the NFL and, quite frankly, scares me to death. It's mind-boggling that CJ has done something this season that no player has ever done in their career - rush for 3 85+ yard touchdowns. I think he'll get his yards on this Miami defense. The key for the Dolphins will be limiting the impact CJ's yards have on the game. I also think that the matchup between the Titan receivers and Dolphin corners should be very fun to watch.

Jimmy: Advantage Titans
The Titans offense has actually been really good since VY took over in week 8. He has actually been a very good passer since re-entering the offense, and he also adds the extra dimension of being able to make a play with his legs when things break down. His presence has also really opens the playbook up for offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger, i.e. QB draws and little option.

The other advantage the Titans offense has in this game is the fact that the Dolphins have never seen CJ live. Hearing about his speed and watching it on tape is very different than defending it. He usually gets some extra yards on runs early in games against teams he has never played because the underestimate their angles.

Dolphins Return Team vs Titans Coverage Team

Matty I: Advantage Dolphins
I think that this is one aspect of Sunday's game that the Dolphins have got to exploit. The Titans have one of the worst kick coverage units in the NFL, allowing 25 yards per kick return. Ted Ginn, meanwhile, has been one of the best kick return guys in the AFC this year. His average of 28 yards per return leads the conference and is second in the conference in kick returns of 40+ yards. Recently, it seems as though there were a few returns where Teddy was one more block away from busting a big one. Sunday could be the day he finally breaks through again.

Jimmy: Advantage Dolphins
I would imagine the Dolphins have the advantage against pretty much anyone with Ted Ginn returning kicks, but that will be especially true in this game. The Titans coverage teams, especially kick-off, have been horrendous this season. Kicking the ball to Ginn might be the scariest thing about this game for Titans fans.

Titans Return Team vs Dolphins Coverage Team

Matty I: Advantage Dolphins
Prior to this season, the Dolphins had been struggling for years covering kicks and punts. But they've turned things around this season, holding opponents to 22.8 yards per kick return and 8.2 yards per punt return. Nothing spectacular, but certainly an improvement over past seasons. They also held some of the top return men - Clifton Smith, Fred Jackson, Wes Welker, and Darren Sproles - under their season averages. The Titans, meanwhile, are ranked towards the bottom in both kickoff return and punt returns and I just don't see any reason to think the Dolphins won't continue their consistent performance on Sunday.

Jimmy: Advantage Dolphins
I haven’t looked at any stats for this one, but I have watched the Titans play all season so I don’t need too. The Titans have gotten better at returning kick-offs since they put Kenny Britt back there, but they still don’t have anyone that could return a punt for a touchdown against a middle school team.

Coaching

Matty I: Push
Titan fans probably will disagree with this. After all, Jeff Fisher is one of the top coaches in the league and I have a great deal of respect for him. But you can't argue with the results that Tony Sparano and his staff have gotten out of this football team in the almost two seasons as head coach. They took over a 1-15 team and completely turned them around. This season we've seen the Dolphins - despite being far less talented - hang tough and come very close to knocking off the unbeaten Colts and Saints. This coaching staff has helped overcome injuries to many key players (Chad Pennington, Ronnie Brown, Will Allen, Jason Ferguson to name a few). More recently, they've done an excellent job of game planning for their opponents - deciding to put the pressure on their young quarterback against a porous New England secondary, for example. Sparano knows how to motivate his team. He gets as much out of his players as any head coach can get from theirs. And I just don't see how anyone can prepare for a game against these Dolphins and think that they can actually "out-coach" or "out-prepare" this team. It's not going to happen.

Jimmy: Push
Honestly I am close to giving this one to the Dolphins. Last year I would have taken Jeff Fisher over 95% of the coaches in the league, but he has made a ton of boneheaded decisions this season that have really lowered my confidence in him. It started in the offseason when he didn’t bother to get the team anyone who could return kicks and has continued in season with his refusal to remove Nick Harper from the starting line-up. Plus you have to be really impressed with the job Tony Sparano has done, especially with all of the injuries they have suffered. All of that being said, Jeff Fisher is still a very good in game coach who has been through all of the battles which is why I went push.

Tennessee Titans Morning Links: He Sees You When You're Sleeping Edition

August West — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 15:03:51 -0000

More photos » by Wade Payne - AP

Seeing lots of this is going to be key for getting the W this weekend.

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Terry McCormick brings the chuckles in his list of gift ideas for several Titans and the franchise's extended family:

For running backs Chris Johnson and LenDale White, a new nickname set to replace "Smash and Dash."

...since a Smash and Dash breakup appears inevitable, how about "Starting and Soon Departing?"

And, finally, for owner Bud Adams, one Red Ryder BB Gun, just like Ralphie got in The Christmas Story. After all, what else would you get for a man who enjoys shooting birds so much?

Not a big fan of Christmas music, but I always thought Da Boss did a great job with Santa Claus is Coming To Town.

The AP talks to CJ's blockers about how much it would mean to them to help CJ cross the 2,000 yard mark this year.

Follow us through the jump for a little insult added in injury for an aging Titan...

There's a remote chance that Jevon Kearse's record for sacks by a rookie may fall in the next few games to University of Texas product Brian Orakpo. Orakpo has 11, giving him three more games to try and top Kearse's 14.5 from the 1999 season. As if Kearse's season hasn't been enough of a downer for him...

Paul Kuharsky takes a look at the much-improved Randy Starks, but I'd really like to know what Fisher meant here:

" I know the reasons for his inconsistencies here and it looks like he’s got it behind him," Jeff Fisher aid cryptically.

More on the Chris Johnson/Ted Ginn race, whose teammate (Joey Porter) is trying to cover for Ginn's no-show this past off-season.

H/T to oilertitan for pointing us towards Will Carrol of Football Outsiders, who takes a look at the role Vince Young might be playing in the back injuries to Justin Gage and Kenny Britt (even though Britt hasn't been on a single injury report this week?):

The injuries to Justin Gage, who has returned from a fractured vertebrae after just a couple weeks off, and to Kenny Britt, who limped out of last week with a back injury of his own, have more to do with Vince Young than with them. Young has improved in many facets of the game, but he continues to throw a high ball, one we used to call a "medicine ball" in high school. Young doesn't seem to have the vision to predict when placing the ball is going to run a wide receiver into the path of danger and often makes his receiver extend for the ball. Young, according to a couple scouts, often makes the receiver turn or spin, leaving his back exposed for a hit. It's not intentional and there was some debate about whether it's even a learnable skill, but maybe the Titans might consider a bit more padding for their receivers if things don't change. Both are expected to play this week, with some limitations.

I've always been an unabashed Rick Williams fan (we all have demons, people), so I'm excited for the success and peace the guy seems to have found in Miami. This weekend though, I hope he feels the wrath of hellfire!

Gary Estwick continues to up his game, this time coming with some out-of-the-way nuggets about the Dolphins. Here are a few choice ones:

• Miami quarterback Chad Henne is one of the worst fourth-quarter quarterbacks in the NFL. He is completing just 49 percent of his passes during that span with three touchdowns and seven interceptions.

Have love, need links! Email me at mcmaugustwest@gmail.com

Tennessee Titans Morning Links: Fastest Underdog Evah? Edition

August West — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:01:49 -0000

More photos » by Wade Payne - AP

Vince Young gears-up for a Jeff Fisher-esque leg kick/fist pump combo.

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The gambling site bodog.com says Chris Johnson is an underdog to hit 2,000 yards... he's a +120 underdog (bet $100 to win $120) so it's not like the odds are insultingly against him. Still were I still a bettin' man I'd feel pretty safe about that bet since we don't play the world's greatest run defenses in the next few weeks.

How strange is it to see a Jeff Fisher coached team that's 14th on offense and 24th of defense? Our DVOA ratings go a long way to showing what a long, strange trip this season has been.

No matter how much time Vince Young misses to injury, he still wants and expects to play on Sunday. I'd expect him to get the nod, and I'd also expect Vince to not even try to run. It'll be interesting to see just how he fairs without that threat on the table, because it was something he struggled with in 2007 when he suffered a hamstring injury.

Follow us through the jump to find-out what the Dolphins are saying about CJ's speed...

Chad Henne is starting to blossom for the Dolphins (though I refuse to say 'groove' about a white boy from anywhere in Michigan that isn't Detroit), and never was that more apparent than his 22-29 performance last weekend against the Jaguars.

Looks like the yesterday over Ginn's chickening out of a foot-race with Chris Johnson had it's intended effect, as the Dolphins are talking openly about how afraid they are of Johnson's wheels.

As well they should be scared: Even though Johnson slipped on his pace a little last week, he's still got the best rushing pace and total at this point in the season since Terrell Davis in 1998. THere have been a lot of running backs making good livings in the NFL since then, and none have come close to what Johnson's doing.

Jeff Fisher's son Brandon will be playing for the FCS National Championship this weekend in Chattanooga when his Montana Grizzlies face-off against Villanova.

ESPN wants you to rank the greatest single-season records in NFL history. Alas, yards from scrimmage isn't in there.

Already looking to the off-season, National Football Post has a great rundown of the certain and likely coaching vacancies around the NFL. Fisher is on there, but with a note about how the turn-around likely saved his hide.

Jeremy Green. Still suckin' at talent evaluation.

Have love, need links: mcmaugustwest@gmail.com

Winning Stats Power Rankings - Week 15

mgrex03 — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 05:08:02 -0000

It's time once again for our weekly installment of Power Rankings based on the Winning Stats. There wasn't much movement at the top of the rankings, with the Saints maintaining the top spot, followed by the Patriots, Vikings, and Colts.

Follow me after the jump for the full rankings, Strength of Schedule, and Consistency...

Power Rankings (click on headers to sort):

Team	Power Rankings
	Non-Adjusted			Adjusted
	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Saints	1	6	1	3	8	1
Patriots	3	12	4	2	10	2
Vikings	5	3	2	5	9	3
Colts	2	21	5	1	18	4
Packers	8	2	3	8	3	5
Ravens	11	8	6	12	5	6
Bengals	15	4	8	15	6	7
Giants	10	19	14	11	12	8
Dolphins	12	18	16	10	15	9
Eagles	14	7	9	16	7	10
Jets	21	1	13	22	1	11
Cowboys	6	17	10	7	24	12
Steelers	9	11	7	9	20	13
Broncos	18	10	15	20	4	14
Texans	13	14	12	13	14	15
Chargers	4	26	11	4	30	16
Cardinals	20	9	18	18	11	17
Redskins	17	15	17	17	19	18
Falcons	7	31	21	6	31	19
Titans	19	24	22	19	22	20
49ers	25	5	20	27	2	21
Jaguars	16	27	19	14	28	22
Panthers	24	20	24	23	16	23
Bears	22	22	25	21	23	24
Seahawks	23	16	23	26	17	25
Bills	28	13	26	28	13	26
Chiefs	29	23	27	31	21	27
Buccaneers	30	25	29	30	25	28
Lions	27	32	30	24	29	29
Rams	26	30	28	25	32	30
Browns	31	29	32	29	27	31
Raiders	32	28	31	32	26	32

A few thoughts:

Like I mentioned, the Colts are 4th in the Adjusted Power Rankings, ranking 1st Offensively, and 18th Defensively. The Colts probably won't get much higher, especially playing without some key players in the last 3 games.
Based on these rankings, the teams I'd like the Colts to play in the Playoffs are this week's opponent, Jacksonville (22nd), and San Diego (16th). A loss this week might not be all that bad for this exact reason.
Speaking of the Chargers, they have the 3rd worst defense in the NFL. But some writers say you shouldn't laugh when they are called the best team in the NFL.
The Dolphins have played a tough schedule, and look much better statistically when you adjust for that tough schedule (16th vs. 9th). If you had told me Chad Henne would be the QB for most of the season with those numbers, I would have laughed in your face.

Strength of Schedule:

Team	Schedule Strength
	Past			Future
	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Buccaneers	2	3	1	10	11	7
Patriots	1	13	2	12	23	22
Browns	5	4	3	30	29	31
Dolphins	9	5	4	20	7	13
Falcons	3	10	5	1	31	16
Lions	8	6	6	7	25	21
Titans	20	2	7	31	14	25
Panthers	12	8	8	6	1	1
Colts	7	12	9	2	28	18
Ravens	21	7	10	32	30	32
Broncos	30	1	11	24	21	27
Raiders	14	11	12	18	26	26
Bills	4	23	13	28	2	9
Jets	15	15	14	26	4	12
Rams	13	16	15	11	22	20
49ers	28	9	16	29	24	29
Giants	24	17	17	3	10	3
Bears	18	19	18	15	6	4
Texans	11	22	19	21	13	19
Bengals	16	24	20	8	12	11
Jaguars	6	27	21	23	5	10
Chiefs	31	14	22	14	32	28
Saints	25	20	23	22	16	23
Cardinals	17	25	24	25	27	30
Seahawks	29	21	25	13	19	17
Cowboys	22	26	26	16	3	2
Eagles	32	18	27	4	15	5
Vikings	19	30	28	5	17	8
Chargers	10	32	29	9	9	6
Redskins	26	28	30	27	8	15
Packers	27	29	31	19	20	24
Steelers	23	31	32	17	18	14

A couple things:

The Colts have played the 9th toughest schedule in the league so far, and it won't get too much easier for the rest of the season. Where is that other undefeated team? 23rd.
The Steelers have absolutely no excuse for losing 5 games in a row, and being 6-7, as they have had the easiest schedule in the league. Maybe they need the high level of competition to actually win games, like they had last year.
I'd say the Broncos and Ravens are in the Driver's seat for the 2 Wild Card spots, seeing as they have the easiest schedules going forward. In the NFC I think the Packers will keep the spot they currently enjoy as a Wild Card team.

Consistency:

Team	Consistency
	Non-Adjusted			Adjusted
	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Colts	2	11	2	1	12	1
Eagles	13	17	3	12	5	2
Cowboys	8	3	6	2	7	3
Chiefs	5	25	18	6	15	4
Panthers	25	5	4	17	1	5
49ers	1	24	17	3	24	6
Falcons	9	14	12	9	16	7
Buccaneers	20	2	10	20	11	8
Bears	10	29	22	5	31	9
Lions	23	1	11	18	6	10
Texans	11	23	16	10	20	11
Redskins	17	6	1	23	4	12
Cardinals	28	12	13	24	23	13
Vikings	4	10	7	11	8	14
Rams	21	9	9	27	2	15
Packers	12	15	24	13	17	16
Saints	3	19	5	7	25	17
Browns	30	16	21	21	26	18
Dolphins	19	13	14	30	22	19
Ravens	29	22	30	26	3	20
Chargers	7	27	23	8	27	21
Raiders	15	21	15	14	30	22
Bills	27	18	20	29	10	23
Steelers	16	4	8	19	21	24
Patriots	6	32	25	4	32	25
Seahawks	22	20	27	15	14	26
Giants	18	31	29	16	29	27
Jets	31	30	28	31	28	28
Bengals	14	7	19	25	13	29
Jaguars	26	8	26	28	9	30
Titans	32	26	31	32	18	31
Broncos	24	28	32	22	19	32

My thoughts:

The Colts continue to be the most consistent team in the league, besting the Eagles and Cowboys. I'm still not surprised by that ranking at all.
The Colts last 5 opponents of the season (Titans, Broncos, Jaguars, Jets, and Bills) are all in the ten most inconsistent teams in 2009. Not sure it says much, but it is interesting nonetheless.

Dolphins in the red zone: Week 14

Matty I — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 19:30:14 -0000

This post is sponsored by Comcast and their NFL RedZone channel. Want to see every touchdown from every NFL game as it happens as well as live look-ins to all of Sunday's games in key situations? Then you need Comcast's NFL RedZone.

On Sunday, the Dolphins continued their excellent execution and performance inside the red zone in 2009, converting two red zone opportunities into two touchdowns.

Their first opportunity came on their second possession of the game. The Dolphins needed only seven plays to get into the red zone. They then converted on a 4th & 1 play by giving the ball to - who else - Lousaka Polite. Polite is now 13 for 13 on 3rd or 4th and two yards or less to go. Ricky Williams then gained four on the next play - and got lucky that his first fumble of the game went out of bounds. Another Polite run and a four yard pass to Polite set the Dolphins up at Jacksonville's one yard line. That's when Ricky ran it in behind Jake Long completely untouched for the touchdown.

Of course, that got me thinking - isn't it about time the Dolphins give it to Lousaka Polite from the one yard line and let him have a scoring opportunity? He only has one touchdown in his career - a receiving touchdown back in 2005 with Dallas. I say we let the big man punch one in!

Anyways, following a Jaguar three and out, the Dolphins again found themselves inside Jacksonville's 20 yard line. This time, it was thanks to a Chad Henne bullet pass to Brian Hartline over the middle for 25 yards, setting themselves up at the 14 yard line. That's when Polite carried for five yards and Henne found Joey Haynos for eight. After a Ricky run for no gain, Chad Henne rolled right on 2nd & goal and ran it in untouched for his first career rushing touchdown.

On the season, the Dolphins are converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns at an efficient rate of 64%. So I don't want to nit-pick. But I'm squarely on the "Let Lousaka Score" bandwagon. The big man deserves at least one shot.

Dolphins vs Titans: Three Key Matchups

Matty I — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 05:15:08 -0000

More photos » by John Russell - AP

Most important part of Sunday's game: containing this man.

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It's time to turn our attention to Sunday's game in Tennessee between the Dolphins and Titans. For the third consecutive week, the Dolphins will play in what is essentially another "playoff game" - meaning a loss and their season could be over. A win and they live to play another meaningful December football game the following week. After the rough start that Miami went through, this is all we could ask for.

The Titans also had their own rough start but have battled back themselves, recovering from an 0-6 start to win six of seven and get back into the playoff picture. Their lone loss in their last seven came at the hands of the undefeated Colts. Needless to say, this one promises to be a battle.

Onto my weekly critical matchups:

Chris Johnson vs Dolphins rush defense
This is obviously a no-brainer. If the Dolphins are to win this game, then they must find a way to slow down the most dangerous runner in the NFL. Chris Johnson leads the NFL in rushing yards, over 300 yards in front of the second ranked rusher. He's run for over 100 yards in eight consecutive games and has his sights set on a 2,000 yard season. And his 6 yards per carry average is tops among all backs with at least 100 carries. He's simply a dynamic play-maker who has 20 runs of 20+ yards this season and 7 of 40+ yards and is a threat to score every time he gets his hands on the football.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, have done a much better job over the past few weeks in stopping the run. They held the Patriots to just 96 yards rushing and 3.8 yards per carry. Then last week, Miami limited Maurice Jones-Drew to just 59 yards and 3.3 yards per carry. Impressive, for sure - especially for limiting MJD like they did. But this unit has not faced a back as fast and elusive as Chris Johnson. And outside of MJD, the most talented runner the Dolphins have faced this season, DeAngelo Williams, ran for 122 yards on just 13 carries against this defense.

Needless to say, the Dolphins most focus this week on limiting Johnson's impact on this football game.

Dolphin receivers vs Titans Secondary
While the Titans will look to run the ball on Sunday, I have a feeling that the Dolphins' game plan will be to throw. The Titans are seventh in the league defending the run but 31st defending the pass. Now part of that is because Tennessee has had to play some games without starting corners Cortland Finnegan and Nick Harper. But still, with both of those guys in the lineup, Matt Leinart was able to complete 68% of his passes for 220 yards.

On the season, the Titans are allowing over 258 yards per game through the air and have surrendered 27 touchdown passes - the second highest total in the league, just two fewer than the Lions. But one of my favorite pass defense statistics is even more telling. The Titans are letting over 67% of the passes thrown against them get completed. And don't let a Titans fan tell you this is because of the injuries they've sustained in 2009. Finnegan is allowing 64% of the passes thrown his way get completed while Harper's completion percentage against is a staggering 73.3%. In fact, opposing quarterbacks have a rating of 115 when throwing in Nick Harper's direction.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, have really been looking to throw the football more often these past two weeks. Chad Henne is completing 62% of his pass attempts over these last two weeks and is averaging 278 yards in that span. Miami's receivers have been the key. Henne has had places to throw the football and his receivers have been consistent catching the football. In these last two games, the Dolphins have had two different 100 yard receivers - Davone Bess against the Pats and Greg Camarillo last week in Jacksonville.

For all of their faults, one thing you can say about this group of receivers is that they have a number of reliable targets. And I think the Dolphins will be able to exploit Tennessee's nickel corner. Whether it's Vincent Fuller or Jason McCourty, the Dolphins should get a favorable matchup against either - or both - of these two. Fuller has allowed 83% of the passes thrown his way to get completed while McCourty has let 89% get completed for an average of ober 14 yards per reception.

This is one matchup the Dolphins have got to exploit.

Ted Ginn vs Titans kick coverage
Here's a little "did you know." Did you know that Ted Ginn Jr. leads the AFC in yards per kick return, averaging 28 yards per attempt? Did you know that no player has more kickoff returns for a touchdown this season than Ginn - and only one player has as many? Did you know that Ginn is fourth in the AFC in kickoff returns of over 20 yards and second in the AFC in returns of 40+ yards? In fact, 72% of Teddy's returns result in at least 20 yards - the same percentage as "return star" Josh Cribbs. And only one player has more 40+ yard kick returns in the AFC than Ginn.

Meanwhile, the Titans are one of the worst teams in the league in kickoff coverage, surrendering 25 yards per kickoff return - the third most in the entire league. And with only 9% of Tennessee's kickoffs resulting in touchbacks, Ginn figures to have some opportunities to make plays on Sunday.

So how about it? Can we see something special out of one of the most polarizing players on this Miami roster?

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

6 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall, left, avoids the tackle of Indianapolis Colts linebacker Gary Brackett in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. Marshall had 21 receptions for 200 yards in the game. The Colts defeated the Broncos 28-16. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Christmas is coming - and I, for one, am hoping for a much more joyous holiday season than I experienced last December. All I got for Christmas last year was the Broncos' historic collapse, and all I had to give was the one scenario that could possibly be worse than the season-ending Chargers game (it involved hypothetically cutting an apple, slipping, and stabbing myself in the groin WHILE watching that game).

I'm not much for moral victories, but today in Donny Deutschland, I will talk about why I feel better about Sunday's loss than I have about any Broncos loss in years. There's no time to waste, so let's not waste any time. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. I learned on Sunday that what I suspected was the case, was in fact, the case. That is, the Broncos can play with Indianapolis, at Indianapolis. It happened a little differently than I thought it would, but the Broncos competed, and got back in the game after getting down in really ugly fashion. Consider these statistics, as I pretend that I care about statistics for a moment. The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 posessions. These measures would tend to indicate victory, but in this case, the Broncos fell a little short.

For next time, we can internalize a few thoughts:

a. The Broncos have the players and schemes to cover the Colts receivers, pressure Peyton Manning, and generally disrupt their offense.

b. The Broncos have the players and schemes to move the ball at will against the Colts defense.

c. As a fan base, we all mistakenly thought to ourselves "Here we go again" when the Colts got up 21-0 after four possessions. We can take this game as a lesson that the past doesn't indicate the future. Those Broncos teams which got their doors blown off by the Colts passing game are definitely not these Broncos.

One general concern is that the Broncos could have run the ball better, and will need to next time. I felt the run scheme was too zone-heavy and horizontal, and it played into the Colts' plan to run-blitz the gaps. A smaller, faster team needs to be man-blocked with a vertical scheme. Those are guys you don't necessarily want moving laterally, because they're comfortable doing so.

The other concern is that at money time, Dallas Clark needed more and better attention. Josh Barrett needed to be on the field manning him up, because he's the best guy in the NFL at covering TEs man-to-man.

All in all, I am proud of the way the Broncos stayed in the game, despite some reasons that lesser men would take to quit. This was really a game which turned on a few plays, and I am pleased to know that the Broncos can compete with Indianapolis, unlike in past years. This week, it's the Raiders, and luckily, JaMarcus Russell will be under center again. Expect Elvis Dumervil to get some shots at him. The Broncos can take care of business at home, and position themselves well to make the postseason. Happy Raiders Week, friends.

2. Information From My Eyes, Broncos at Colts:

a. Andre' Goodman got beat on a crossing route by Pierre Garcon on the first offensive play of the game, and in the moment, I wondered if there was a major speed mismatch. Goodman settled down to play Garcon spectacularly the rest of the game, breaking up four well-thrown balls. Goodman has been terrific all year, but I'd call this his best game as a Bronco.

b. When the Broncos drafted Darcel McBath, I'd never heard of him. I'm very impressed with his play as a rookie, though, and he had a fantastic game Sunday. He separated Dallas Clark from the ball on a 3rd down, and also baited Peyton Manning into his third interception. It's a real bummer that he broke his forearm and is gone for the season, but he showed well when he got the opportunities. I look for him to make a serious run at Renaldo Hill's starting job next season.

c. I really "misunderestimated" the Colts' DTs, Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson. They both played fantastic, and drove the Broncos' interior players backward consistently.

d. Ryan Clady didn't play very well in the running game, which was a departure from what we've been seeing lately. He got pushed backward several times when he lost leverage, and he misread a few run blitzes, and didn't hit the right guy. He's young and growing, and we can only hope he learns from this game.

e. Brandon Marshall was spectacular, of course. It's obvious that Kyle Orton really trusts him to make plays at this point. I wish he trusted Eddie Royal a little more, though. The truth is, though, Royal hasn't come up with some plays when he's had chances to do so.

f. I was happy to see Jabar Gaffney back in the mix this week. He's a pro's pro, and the Broncos offense is better when he is involved.

g. I was pleased with what I saw from Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil, despite the Broncos' lack of sacks. Both played well against the run, and generated pressure against Manning.

h. Peyton Hillis isn't a very good lead blocker, and I think a key part of the trouble the running game had was with the loss of Spencer Larsen. Larsen has been knocking heads the last two weeks, and he wasn't there this time, obviously.

Hillis is a good RB, but he's a true HB, not a FB. The truth is, he is where he should be on the depth chart; the third RB for the Broncos. Zappa said that some DP posters were calling for Knowshon Moreno to be benched, and Hillis to get the starting job. That's not going to happen, and frankly, it's asinine. Hillis could get more opportunity to make plays, but he deserves to be behind Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. There's no question in my mind of that.

i. The Colts' last drive was enabled by missed tackles by Vonnie Holliday (first play of the series) and Mario Haggan (3rd down inside the Broncos 10).

j. Oh, Dallas Clark. Ty Law did a good job on him, but he often was assigned to cover Austin Collie. Wesley Woodyard is a good zone player, but he can't cover a Clark in man-to-man. That 4th-and-4 was badly schemed, because Brian Dawkins shouldn't be manned up on Clark, either.

Finally, at the end of the game, the approach should have been to look at the formation. The power was left, and the only receiving threat was Clark, playing with his hand down on the right side. You need somebody to drive him straight into the ground, so he can't get out in the pattern. That's how I would coach that situation, anyway. Tackle him when he pretends to block, without getting called for holding.

k. D.J. Williams had a very good game, except for the one stupid penalty. Darrell Reid got (another) one of those too, while we're at it.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games

a. I thought Thursday's Browns-Steelers game was pretty riveting, and I almost wish I went (but not quite). Several of my friends tried to get me to go, because everybody in the world was trying to dump their tickets. It was 12 degrees, with 50 mph winds, and felt negative-7 in Cleveland that night. That's a recipe for freezing your hind-parts off, as Omar would say.

The Browns are changing for the better, and I wonder if it saves Eric Mangini's job. They're doing some very interesting things, like using Mike Furrey at FS. He's played both ways in his career, but has been more of a WR in the NFL, and caught 98 passes for the Lions in 2006, which was second in the NFL.

He did some nice things at Safety in the game, and it reminded me of Troy Brown playing defense for the Patriots, though, as I mentioned, Furrey has played defense at the professional level. You have to be impressed with a player doing what it takes to help his team win.

b. A guy who I have always liked, who the Browns found for free is Matt Roth. He got on the wrong side of Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano in Miami, and they put him on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list, and then waived him in November. The Browns smartly claimed him, and he's played very well for the Browns thus far. The Sam position in a 3-4 is pretty hard to fill, because it's a unique skill set. Lamarr Woodley and Mario Haggan are both very good at it, and Adalius Thomas used to be, but like RT on offense, there are a lot more average 3-4 Sams than there are good ones. Roth is a good one, because he sets the edge well, and generates a good pass rush when he's called upon to do so. Finding a guy like him in-season is what a bad team has to do.

c. Two unheralded guys who the Browns have discovered on offense are RB Chris Jennings and TE Evan Moore. Jennings won a Grey Cup recently with the Montreal Alouettes, and looked like the best back on the Browns roster last Thursday. He ran with power and explosion against an excellent run defense.

I meant to mention Moore last week and forgot; but I know a football player when I see one, and he's a player. He was a big WR at Stanford for 4 years, and also played basketball for his first 2 years. His fluidity, body control, and overall athleticism jump off the screen, and really remind me of Antonio Gates. I don't know if he's as fast as Gates, but he looks to me like he could definitely be a Brent Celek-caliber receiving TE. He's been key to Brady Quinn's recent improvement, because Quinn does his best throwing work inside the numbers.

Jennings and Moore are two players who the Browns can be very excited about, as they figure out what their program is during the offseason. Like Roth, they came with no significant cost. Now the Browns just need to nail their offseason.

d. I had a friend who is a Steelers fan ask me what was wrong with his team, and I think I may have disappointed him by not having a real definitive answer ready. It's kind of a tough question to answer, really, because Mike Tomlin had it exactly right when he said it was a function of struggles in all three phases of the game.

The defense really misses Troy Polamalu, who I think might be the most irreplaceable defensive player in the NFL. No safety plays with the speed of Polamalu, and the Steelers are much more conservative in their blitz packages without him. Their CBs are also playing pretty poorly over the last five games. On offense, I think the Steelers play-calling has been suspect. Rashard Mendenhall has emerged as a good RB, and the Steelers seem reluctant to commit to letting him run. I'm not surprised at the rumblings Sunday that some offensive coaches are likely going to get whacked after the season.

e. Now, on to why the Browns won Thursday. There were two reasons. One reason is that Joshua Cribbs is a great football player, and he carried his team on offense and special teams. The other is that the Browns covered the Steelers' receivers at a shockingly high level. ST&NO Favorite Brandon McDonald was fantastic. He might have had the best coverage game I have seen from a CB this year (although Andre' Goodman was awesome on Sunday, too). Eric Wright was strong on the other side too, though he gave up a few completions to Santonio Holmes. As has often been the case with the Broncos this season, the coverage allowed the pressure to get to Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked 8 times.

f. It was another annoying weekend when almost every game was early, including the Broncos. I had the Chicago-Green Bay game on at the same time as the Broncos game,. and as I watched some of it, I was struck by the fact that neither team showed me anything that I didn't already know about them. Aaron Rodgers continued his recent run of getting sacked less, and the Packers defense was strong again. The Bears had some flashes, but self-destructed at key times.

The only real takeaway from this, to me, is another reminder why I don't really like fantasy football. The number one player in the Official MHR League this year has been my QB, Rodgers. In real football terms, he played fine on Sunday. He completed 16 of 24 throws for 180 yards, and lost a fumble on a blind-side sack. His team won the game, so no worries, right? Well, in fantasy terms, he tanked. Not only that, I am playing Zappa in the playoffs this week, and he has Ryan Grant, who had a monster game with 137 yards and 2 TDs, because the Bears were playing coverage to prevent big plays in the passing game.

g. Speaking of guys who tanked on my fantasy team, Randy Moss, this skunky, warm Miller High Life is for you. One catch for 16 yards, and a lost fumble? Really? He really looked like he wasn't trying hard, too; it was a total flashback to the Oakland days. Good thing I had Brandon Marshall and the Eagles (TD scoring) defense.

h. I think the Patriots are in trouble, and that their culture needs an adjustment. I read Bill Belichick's sending tardy players home as a clear indication of that. Adalius Thomas lipped off in the media, and got benched for it, and Randy Moss did it with his play somewhat on Sunday. I wouldn't be shocked if both are gone after this season. Thomas is gone for sure, and Moss is a possibility. The Patriots have a lot of draft assets with which to restock the WR position, and they're pretty solid at LB anyway, with guys like Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich making positive contributions.

It was pretty interesting how Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came to Moss's aid on Monday, after he clearly was dogging some pass routes. Michael Lombardi had a good point on NFL Network that Moss has done that his whole career, and that the Patriots probably weren't too alarmed by it. I think it's pretty bad, personally.

i. Scary moment in Arlington, Texas, when DeMarcus Ware was carted off the field with a neck injury. The Chargers had a false start, and then went right down the field in two plays to score the deciding TD afterward. Reports on Monday were that Ware would miss the next two weeks, which would really handicap the Dallas defense. Most casual fans think of Ware as just a pass rusher, but he is a rare player who stars against the run, and in zone coverage too.

j. I alluded to this thought last week, but it was well-articulated by Michael Lombardi last night; Dallas's struggles have nothing to do with what month it is. The same can be said of the Chargers and their success in the month of December. If you're playing in a lot of places where there's bad weather, then maybe the month is a semi-meaningful data point, but neither Dallas nor San Diego particularly qualifies. I know somebody is going to say that a game in December is a pressure game, but even that's not true a lot of times. San Diego has tended to be healthy in December, and Dallas has tended to be banged up. San Diego has tended to play weak late-season schedules, and Dallas has tended to play difficult ones. Don't get caught up in things which Peter King would incorrectly call a factoid.

k. That Radio Shack commercial with the sleeping scruffy dude saying "Dance, Sugar Plum Fairies" is bizarre. It makes no sense at all to me, and I can't imagine how it would make anybody want to shop at Radio Shack, or buy that craptastic phone from Sprint.

l. NBC lucked out with a great game on Sunday night between the Eagles and Giants. Neither defense looked particularly good, but both offenses lit it up. The difference in the game was a defensive TD from Sheldon Brown, and a punt-return TD from DeSean Jackson. Those plays also provided the difference in the Shallow Thoughts team beating Zappa's Sactown Beavers in the playoffs.

m. I would never let Jackson get off the line of scrimmage without getting hit. Teams just insist on letting this guy run free through their secondary, and he kills them. Little, fast guys like him must be re-routed off the line, and then you want over/under coverage on him after that. He's not the typical big, physical number-1 WR like Brandon Marshall, but he does need double-team attention, or at least Cover-3 behind him, so he can be hit at the line with confidence.

n. Brandon Jacobs, to me, is like a 98-mph fastball that's a little too straight, and rarely misses bats. Jacobs has been running harder lately than he was early in the season, but he doesn't make anybody miss. He takes so many hits, and this year, he's going down more easily than he used to. I think the Giants offense is better when Ahmad Bradshaw is getting more carries than Jacobs at this point, even as Jacobs has been better lately.

o. Speaking of the Giants, I want to share some ST&NO light with a Giants fan, because I've coincidentally been listening to his music as I wrote this part of the column. If you like hip hop, you ought to check out Nickel at his website www.SpotMeANickel.com. He's got a couple albums worth of MP3s available for free download there. I went to high school with the guy at Norwich Free Academy in Norwich, CT, and it's cool to see him doing well, and making good music.

p. As always, I watched 5 games on Monday night, and the one I learned the most from was the New Orleans-Atlanta game. Very simply, New Orleans deserved to lose the game, and I haven't seen or heard anybody acknowledge that. I take that as a reaffirmation that my effort is worth the time.

Brent Grimes got called for two horrible pass-interference penalties, on plays where he reached around his man to play the ball. Those two plays directly led to 14 points being scored, and the Saints won by 3. The officials bogusly penalized ST&NO Favorite Thomas DeCoud on an even better play in the fourth quarter too, but Garrett Hartley subsequently missed a Field Goal, so it didn't affect the scoreboard. The Saints are a very good team, and they don't need any bonus help, but apparently you can't breathe on their receivers. It reminded me of the 2006 NBA Finals, when Dwyane Wade got "fouled" practically every time he touched the ball, and it disgusted me just as much to watch.

q. Jonathan Vilma deserves credit for sealing the win for New Orleans. He intercepted Chris Redman with 3 minutes to go in the game. Then, after the Saints arrogantly tried a fake field goal, rather than taking the points and going up 6, Vilma tackled the formidable Jason Snelling cold in the open field, a yard short of the first down on 4th and 2. He made the plays that were there to be made.

r. While I'm on the topic of the Saints, here's an E! True Hollywood Story for you. Or maybe it's a Letterman-style Top 2 list. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Top 2 Things Ted Bartlett Currently Doesn't Give A Damn About (And Al Roker's Forecast Calls For No Change:)

1. Whether or not the Colts or Saints go 16-0, and on a related note, whether or not they rest their starters.

2. Who wins the NFL MVP Award.

Going 16-0 doesn't matter to anything. All it would do is create something which Peter King would someday mistakenly call a factoid (even though it's actually a fact). The only thing that matters is going 3-0 (or 4-0) in the Playoffs. Plus, the whole thing puts Mercury Morris back in the spotlight, and he's a jerk who doesn't deserve it.

As for the MVP Award, really, who cares? I may start caring if somebody other than a QB or RB can win, other than the rare Lawrence Taylor in 1986. (Since the AP award began in 1957, only DT Alan Page, K Mark Moseley, and Taylor have won the award from positions other than QB or RB. Taylor is the only winner for the Pro Football Writers Association award, which began in 1975. This is an absolute farce.)

Remember ST&NO Rule #1: If reporters vote for it, and decide it, it's usually not particularly worth paying attention to. That includes any and all power rankings, the NFL All-Pro team, all season-ending awards in all sports, and membership in all Halls of Fame. Reporters often mean well, and they add some value to the overall football discourse, but the value they add ends when they're not asking questions, finding things out, and reporting those things. When you ask them to judge something, most can't get past the very obvious, or what other people tell them, and nearly all are biased by what they consider to be the most interesting story. While that's understandable, given the fact that they're in the interesting story business, it's also self-serving, and represents noise rather than a reflection of truth.

s. The more I watch Chad Henne, the more I like his mechanics, all the way through the process of playing QB. I most especially like the way he carries out his fakes after he hands off the ball. You can tell that he's very well coached, both at the collegiate level and the professional level.

t. Speaking of good coaching, if Head Coaching jobs were being handed out based only upon excellence as a coordinator, Mike Mularkey would be looking pretty good for a shot at another job. People who know things about offense, and pay attention, know that Mularkey has been getting a lot of production out of some pretty marginal talent the last two seasons. It's equal parts scheme, knowing the capabilities of his players, and getting his guys to execute, but Atlanta's offense overachieves. Remember - Mularkey didn't get fired in Buffalo; he resigned in 2006 because he didn't see eye-to-eye with the recently hired Marv Levy. He's up there with Houston's Kyle Shanahan on offense, and the Broncos' Mike Nolan, Cincinnati's Mike Zimmer, and Arizona's Bill Davis on defense as guys who I think are adding a great deal of value to their sides of the ball.

u. I tend to dislike University of Texas players, because they have a well-known reputation for being coddled in Austin, and often coming into the NFL as soft players. A limitation of making evaluations from a distance is that you sometimes have to rely on information which may or may not be meaningful, such as the fact that coaches are prohibited from cursing at players at UT. That's pretty absurd in my opinion, like the urban legend about stress cards in basic training.

I didn't take to Brian Orakpo much coming out of college, partially due to the UT factor. Turns out, he's very good, and he's brought a lot to the table for Oakland. He has had a very good rookie season, but he was dominant on Sunday against the Raiders' bad offensive line and indecisive JaMarcus Russell. I still prefer Knowshon Moreno to Orakpo for the long haul, and I still think the Redskins should have taken Michael Oher (after the Packers should have taken Michael Oher). Orakpo was a good choice though, and is a good player, so I missed on that one.

v. I said a couple weeks ago that I was pretty sure that the Chiefs didn't regret acquiring Matt Cassel, and he's proceeded to have the two worst games of his career the last two weeks. His ability is very clear, so I still don't think they regret it, but he needs to step it up, and buy Todd Haley and Scott Pioli some cover. Kansas City has an aggressive local sports media, led by Adam Teicher and Jason Whitlock. Whitlock has already renamed Pioli as Scott Egoli, so it would be mighty helpful to this regime if they and Cassel could finish the season stronger than they've been showing, and feel like there's something to build on.

w. A vital part of a 3-step drop passing play is that the outside blocker on the throw side (usually the Tackle) needs to cut the Defensive End and get him on the ground. The 49ers RT, Adam Snyder, failed to cut Darnell Dockett twice in the first half Monday night, resulting in an Interception by Dockett, and another deflection by Dockett, which Alex Smith caught himself, and promptly was tackled for a 6-yard loss. Neither play was Smith's fault; his job is to get to the top of his drop, and let the ball go. Snyder's job is to clear the throwing lane.

x. Speaking of guys clearly not doing their jobs (and jumping back to the Dallas game because of the topic), Tony Dungy was right on when he was asked if coaching was the problem in Dallas. He said that he knows Terence Newman has been coached to jam a WR and re-route him in Cover-2, and that coaching definitely wasn't the problem on the big Vincent Jackson 39-yard catch on 3rd and 12 (right after the aforementioned Ware injury).

That was the key play of the game, and Newman didn't make it. As the play happened live, I yelled out "Where's the f$%^&* jam, 41?" I was glad Dungy called him out, although I bet he wasn't moved to profanity like I was. I've always thought Newman was highly overrated, by virtue of being a Cowboy. It comes with wearing the blue star, I am afraid.

y. Usually, when a defensive lineman is drafted highly, you expect him to be a big sack guy. The Bengals once drafted Justin Smith fourth overall, in 2001. His career high in sacks, mostly as a Right DE in a 40-front, was 8.5 in his rookie season. He had 6.5, 5, 8, 6, 7.5, and 2 in his next five seasons, which are respectable numbers, but not for an open-side DE drafted that highly.

Smith signed a 6-year $45 million deal with San Francisco in 2008, and moved to 5-technique in a 30-front. It's the role he should have been playing all along, because he's always been a physical, block-defeating player more than a speed-rushing player. It's not too different than the highly drafted Derrick Harvey from the Jaguars, or Jamaal Anderson for the Falcons (who moved to DT eventually). Their skill sets are just better suited to playing with physicality than with speed. (Harvey got only his second sack of the year Sunday, and Anderson has 0.5).

Anyway, Smith was dominant on Monday night, and consistently held the point of attack, while often penetrating and disrupting the Cardinals offense. It sure seemed like he is earning his money. I was also very impressed with the pass-rushing skills of Ahmad Brooks, who used to be just a MLB.

z. Another rookie I criticized for seeming to be soft was Beanie Wells, and he continues to play like he isn't. His TD run early in the 4th quarter Monday night was a man's TD run, all second effort. He did fumble later in the 4th quarter, but it was on a kill-shot by Dashon Goldson, who had a couple of those in Monday night's game.

aa. Genetics are a funny thing. In my family, we have something called the Bartlett Calves. My dad and all his siblings have them, and all my siblings and I have them, even my 8-year old half-sister Abby. The Bartlett Calves are notable for being disproportionately muscular and large, compared to the rest of our bodies. I am 6 feet tall and weigh 235 pounds, and when flexed, my calves are 18 inches around, which is 3-4 inches bigger than the average man's calf, and an inch bigger than the average man's neck.

I bring up this genetic oddity, because it makes me feel a certain kinship with Frank Gore, who has thunder thighs like whoa. He's found out a way to make good professional use of his thighs, because they're what give him such impressive power in traffic. Mine don't really come in too useful as an accounting manager and blogger.

ab. The jury is in as far as I am concerned for San Francisco. The 49ers are on the right track, and ST&NO Favorite Alex Smith has definitely emerged as their long-term QB. They have 2 first-round picks this season, which are both going to be in the 10-15 area. They need a CB and an offensive lineman with those picks, or maybe even two offensive linemen. This team is not far at all from the playoffs, and they're not even going to miss by much this season.

ac. The Cardinals are still legitimate championship contenders, but they got their hind parts kicked Monday night. The result of the game was more a reflection of good play by the Niners than it was of bad play by the Cardinals. The bright spot for Arizona was the excellent Adrian Wilson, who baited Smith into a dumb INT, and was around the ball constantly, the whole game.

4. I couldn't agree more with TJ Johnson's piece about deferring the option yesterday, and a smart analyst got out ahead of me before I wrote about it, which happens once in awhile with a Tuesday slot. I'm always glad to see an in-house MHR guy do it. Big up TJ! If you haven't read his article, you should. So should Don Banks (and Dan Fouts.)

From Banks:

• Did I hear that right, the Broncos won the coin toss to start their game at Indy and deferred to the Colts? And Peyton Manning? Why exactly would you give Manning the chance to get the ball in his hands any more than you absolutely have to? What were you thinking, Josh McDaniels? That's a dubious, rookie-like call for the Broncos new head coach. I do believe McDaniels was guilty of overconfidence in his defense.

My two cents was going to be that each team gets the ball kicked to them to start one half, and there's no way around that fact, so if you consider just this fact, it's utterly meaningless which half a particular team gets their opportunity to receive. TJ goes much further, and finds that there is actually evidence that teams who get the ball to start the second half tend to experience more success. Very interesting stuff.

5. That first-rounder from the Bears is looking really good right now. Chicago fell to 5-8 Sunday, and I like them to finish 6-10. They play at Baltimore and home against Minnesota before finishing at Detroit. For the Broncos' playoff chances, I'd like to see the Bears beat the Ravens, but I doubt it happens. A 6-10 record is probably good for a pick in the neighborhood of 9th or 10th overall. I gave a cursory look at the remaining schedules of every team with a losing record, and this is what I came up with for season-ending records, and way-too-early possible picks.

1. St. Louis 1-15 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma

2. Tampa Bay 1-15 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska

3. Detroit 2-14 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma

4. Kansas City 3-13 Eric Berry S Tennessee

5. Cleveland 4-12 Russell Okung T Oklahoma State

6. Oakland 4-12 Carlos Dunlap DE Florida

7. Buffalo 5-11 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame

8. Washington 5-11 Trent Williams T Oklahoma

9. San Francisco ~~Carolina~~ 5-11 Joe Haden CB Florida

10. Seattle 6-10 Anthony Davis T Rutgers

11. Denver ~~Chicago~~ 6-10

12. San Francisco 7-9

13. Pittsburgh 7-9

14. Houston 8-8

15. Tennessee 8-8

With a 10th or 11th pick, you can get yourself a difference-making defensive player like a Terrence Cody, Rolando McClain, or Brandon Spikes. You could also go outside the box, and draft a guy like C.J. Spiller from Clemson, who projects as a major home-run threat, a la Chris Johnson, at the NFL level. You have to admit, he'd make a nice tandem with Knowshon Moreno. My move, though, might be to try to trade down, and enjoy some of the depth of this Draft. (I say try, because you can't always do it.) I am treading kind of lightly with this line of thinking, because I am a well-known believer that players are better than draft picks. (A player is a real asset, and a draft pick is a derivative asset; when you're needing to operate now, it's better to have a barrel of oil than a contract guaranteeing the delivery of a barrel of oil at a future date and price.)

To me, the Broncos could get back once or twice to #20 or so, and take someone like either Mike or Maurkice Pouncey from Florida, if they elect to enter the draft. (Incidentally, I think Florida is going to lose a bunch of underclassmen.) Both are 6-5 320-pound interior offensive linemen, and would fill what I think is the Broncos' biggest roster need. The overall point, though, is that it's good to be in the position the Broncos are in right now, with this pick coming in higher than their record would earn. For those who were sure the Broncos erred in trading their own pick rather than Chicago's, I'd hope they remember that you don't know how things are going to play out until they play out.

6. Bad news emerged for QB-needy teams yesterday that Washington junior Jake Locker will return for his senior season. It was not altogether unexpected, but I believe that Locker would have been the first QB selected, and maybe the number-1 overall pick. His talent as a thrower and runner is way ahead of the other guys in this class. The guy who benefits is Sam Bradford, because if he checks out healthy, his size and arm are both a bit better than Jimmy Clausen's. I, personally, am not in love with either guy. Bradford looks like a young Matt Hasselbeck to me, while a comparison for Clausen doesn't come to me so easily. Clausen is short, average athletically, looks like he needs to get a lot stronger, and has an average arm. He looks a bit like a young Drew Brees, before Drew worked so hard to become what he became. I am reluctant to make that comparison, but it's the best one I can come up with.

7. Retired for John Elway.

That's all I have for this week. We'll be back next Tuesday with more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Until then, have a fantastic Raiders Week, and Go Broncos!

Defense leads the way as Dolphins defeat Jaguars

Matty I — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 05:40:15 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

Miami's defense did an excellent job of containing MJD.

Browse more photos »

This is the time of the year where you take wins any way you can get them. While it wasn't pretty at all and sure was stressful at times, the Dolphins went up to Jacksonville and knocked off a Jaguars team that had just one home loss all season heading into Sunday, improving to 6-0 in December under head coach Tony Sparano.

In doing so, the Dolphins did what they were looking to do - make next week's game in Tennessee against the Titans yet another important must-win game as they look to work their way into the playoffs. As for the playoff picture itself, there's some info about that below. But enjoy the fact that as Dolphin fans, we have yet another meaningful December football game to look forward to. After starting 0-3, that's all us fans can ask for.

Just keep winning. Pretty or ugly. Big win or nail-biter. Doesn't matter to me. Just keep winning.

It's all about the defense
Earlier this week, we talked about how important it would be to contain Maurice Jones-Drew. He's the most explosive player on that Jacksonville offense and the Dolphins were struggling against the run over the past few weeks. Heading into the game, the Dolphins were allowing an average of 127 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry over their last five. But on Sunday, we saw this Miami defense make a stand. Actually, we saw them make multiple stands, holding Jones-Drew to just 59 yards rushing (3.3 ypc) in the process.

Perhaps the most impressive stat on Sunday, though, was how the Dolphins held the Jaguars to just 4/17 on third or fourth down. That's ridiculous, really. And it's just proof of how dominant this defense was and of why this game really shouldn't have been as close as it was.

Quite frankly, we saw this Dolphin defense dominate on Sunday. It's that simple. The Jaguars had just 217 yards of offense. Of that total, 63 yards came on one play. On that play, Sean Smith did a poor job of biting on the double move. But it's important to note that Gibril Wilson was really the guy who blew the coverage. He was supposed to have inside contain in that bracket coverage. But he also "took the cheese" of the Torry Holt double move, allowing Holt to make the big play. Of course, the defense rebounded by holding Jacksonville to a field goal on that drive.

The Jags gained 68 yards on that drive. They also gained 62 yards on their third possession of the game - which ended on a MJD touchdown run. But on Jacksonville's 10 other possessions, the Jaguars gained just 87 yards of offense and averaged just 2.4 yards per play. Those 10 possessions include the Jaguars going "3 and out" on 6 of their first 8 possessions. That, my friends, is domination.

The defense also put together their second consecutive scoreless fourth quarter. In doing so, the Dolphins limited Jacksonville's offense to just 57 yards of offense on four fourth quarter possessions. That's how you win football games even when your offense sputters in the second half. Kudos to every single player on that defense (except for maybe Gibril Wilson) for an outstanding performance.

The "Henne to Camarillo" connection
All season long, I've been waiting (and hoping) to see the Greg Camarillo we saw last season before he went down with his knee injury. On Sunday, I saw that Camarillo. It was a terrific sight to see.

Camarillo picked on this Jaguar secondary all game long, catching all seven passes that were thrown his way for 110 yards. This was Camarillo's best game since the game against Denver last season. And now after just catching three passes from week 10 against Tampa through week 12's loss to Buffalo, it seems as though Chad Henne is finally getting more comfortable with Camarillo - who has 11 catches for 171 yards over his last two.

Speaking of Henne, he's progressing pretty nicely, huh? No Dolphins quarterback has ever completed more consecutive passes in a game than Henne did on Sunday when he connected on 17 straight pass attempts - tying a team record set by Chad Pennington last season. But CP did it over the span of two games. And five of those 17 completions went to none other than the aforementioned Camarillo.

Yes, I know Henne also threw what could have been a costly fourth quarter interception. But again - I'm not too worried about it. I've seen enough from Henne to know that he'll learn from that mistake and he'll get better. The kid's gotten better every week. His accuracy is getting more consistent as the weeks go by. He looks more and more in command of this offense every time he steps on the field. And really, that interception was just a poor read - something he'll fix when he sees the film. But all in all, I continue to be impressed week in and week out with Henne - who is now 7-3 as a starting quarterback.

AFC Playoff Picture
For the Dolphins, it's pretty simple. First of all, they have to win their last three games. If they slip up, then it'll be very hard to squeak into the playoffs.

But the Dolphins can't get into the playoffs by just winning their last three. They need some help. In a nut shell, the Dolphins need either a Patriots loss OR a Ravens loss. If the Dolphins win out and NE was to lose once, the Fins would be division champs. If the Dolphins win out AND the Pats win out, then the Dolphins would need the Ravens to lose one game. If that was to happen, the Dolphins make it in as a wildcard.

So that's the situation. Three Dolphins wins AND either a Patriots loss OR a Ravens loss and the Fins are in the post-season.

QUICK HITS
More random quick thoughts on Sunday's win:

Interesting stat courtesy of Ethan Skolnick. The Dolphins faced 15 offensive 3rd downs. But their average distance "to go" on 3rd down was just 4.4 yards. And on 10 of those 3rd downs, the Dolphins needed just 3 yards or less. That's how you keep the chains moving. You put yourself in manageable 3rd downs by gaining positive yardage on first and second downs.
Ricky Williams went over 100 yards rushing for the fourth time in five games. But that doesn't overshadow his three fumbles. Luckily only one resulted in a turnover. But that one turnover cost the Dolphins at least a field goal attempt. This is nothing new with Ricky, though. Williams has fumbled 45 times on 2,422 career touches - or one fumble every 53.8 touches.
Speaking of mistakes, this game should not have been this close. But the Dolphins left so many points on the field. I think back to the terrible play call to hand the ball to Davone Bess on an end-around on first down from Jacksonville's 33 yard line. Terrible call there when Chad Henne was slicing up that Jaguar secondary and Bess isn't the guy who can turn the corner. Bess ends up fumbling and that stalls a drive that could have resulted in at least three points. On their next possession, a sack and a missed 38 yard field goal from Dan Carpenter (it was bound to happen eventually) squandered away another potential scoring drive. And then Ricky's fumble inside Jacksonville's 30 squandered another scoring opportunity. And that's why the Dolphins can out gain a team by 137 yards and win by just four.
Randy Starks is having just one hell of a season. On Sunday, Starks continued his Pro-Bowl caliber season by making a number of key plays - non bigger than his tackle for a loss on David Garrard on 4th down with under 90 seconds to play. It wasn't a sack (technically) because it was a called QB draw. Regardless, Starks just shoved his blocker back and gave Garrard nowhere to run. He's the defensive MVP of this team right now. Who would have thought back in camp that we'd be saying that?
Cameron Wake has got to play more. All he does is get to the quarterback. And now he has a bullrush to go along with his speed rush. For the second consecutive week, Wake made the game-clinching play - this time sacking Garrard on the game's final play. It's getting to the point where he needs as many snaps as possible on gameday. It's that simple.
Vontae Davis played very well today - after sitting out the opening drive, that is. It was called a "coach's decision" to start Jason Allen over Davis. But Davis was back out there following Jacksonville's first "3 and out" of the game. Vontae said after the game, "It was just one series. I'm not in the doghouse. It's all part of learning." Most likely, Vontae was late for something and this was his punishment. No big deal. What was a big deal was Vontae's play - doing an excellent job all game on Mike Sims-Walker, though Sims-Walker was slowed with a calf injury. Still, Vontae has the skills and swagger to be an elite corner eventually.
I've come to realize that Yeremiah Bell is every bit as good as he was last season. He could be a very, very good strong safety if only he had a capable free safety playing next to him. Gibril Wilson is obviously not that. Bell just seems to make big pass deflections in big spots and remains stout against the run.
Great job by the offensive line on Sunday. They protected Henne well all game long and gave Ricky room to run. Lousaka Polite was also excellent once again. He converted on 3rd and fourth downs when asked and continued his excellent lead blocking.

Miami@Jacksonville The View from the Stadium

Tkopa — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 01:25:32 -0000

It was a good day at the stadium, Oh yea, we lost. Sorry. You know what? I am not that disappointed. This team played very hard right to the end. We didn't have all of our muscle in today and even if we did, Miami has a lot of muscle. Miami looks to be rounding out as a playoff caliber team. We are not quite there yet, but we aren't as far off as we were a few weeks ago. We could have won, we almost won. In fact, the defense took it to them hard. If we had one more play on offense our playoff hopes would be strongly alive. That's OK, the Jaguars are OK, so let's take a look at it. By the way, if you stare hard enough at this picture you can see Jonathan and Collin, but you have to look for a long time to see them.

The game didn't start out very well. Jaxson DeVille got hung up on his high-wire act and hung upside down for almost 10 minutes as they tried to figure out how to get him down. As Curtis Dvorak hung 100 feet up over a stadium in a mascot outfit, I wonder if this thought passed his mind "How did my life come to this?".

In the first quarter, the Jaguars were just as hung up. I think Miami had the ball for 12 minutes and the Jaguars got to run all of 6 plays. It was clear Miami was the better team coming out of the gate. One thing about Miami since Bill took over, they are physical. I think the beating Houston gave David took a toll as David did not look sharp. The Dolphins smelled blood.

By the middle of the second quarter the dominance was complete. Miami drove down again and scored on a Chad Henne roll-out. Chad would begin a streak of 17 straight completions that the Jaguars struggled to stop. Everything was open for Miami, runs up the middle, reverses and receivers. We were dead. It was a complete beat down in the making.

Then something began to happen. The offense woke up. The blocking got better and the running and passing began to happen. Maurice ripped off a nine yard run and then Jennings ripped off a ten yard run. Both up the middle. At the goal line we saw what might have been Greg Jones final important play. He held open the Miami defense just long enough to get MJD through.

The defense woke up at this point. Miami had 14 points and the defense said that was enough. They began to get to Chad Henne and rattle him. Hitting began to happen and the ball began to come out. Gerald Alexander forced a fumble and Anthony Smith recovered it. Both of those guys have been playing very well and we have the nucleus of a very good defense in the making. 14-7 Miami at halftime.

Third quarter was one of the most fun quarters of football to watch in the stadium this season. Derrick Harvey set the tone of the second half with a huge sack. He played really well again today.

With the defense beginning their shutdown, the offense had to pick it up. The field was soggy and Maurice slipped a lot. No excuse, Ricky Williams got his 100 yards, but Maurice couldn't do it. They had him running back punts today and nothing good happened. Then lighting struck. Torry Holt pulled a vanishing move and reappeared behind the defense. David scrambled to his right and launched a ball that seemed to move in slow motion. The tension was amazing as we watched the high arc and the ever so slow decent. Please Torry please!!!

Got it! If I blew up this photo you could see the size of his hands. They look like a bushel basket. Torry didn't score but another catch of his had the Jaguars on the 8 yard line. Since they had their quota of red zone touchdowns for the game, it was time for a field goal.

Miami punts, Jacksonville punts, Gerald Alexander forces another fumble and recovers. We are on the 35 yard line. Just get a field goal, please! We can't move the ball and punt. Scobee for 57 yards? I would have tried it.

Miami punts and then the Jaguars fail to convert on fourth down while on the Miami 45 yard line. All we wanted was a field goal, please! Miami ball, Derrick Cox intercepts! A beautiful interception by the 103 best corner back in the draft. Once again, the Jaguars can't move the ball and punt. The defense holds and forces Miami to punt. The Jaguars fail to convert on fourth down again.

The defense had given the offense the ball four times to get 2 field goals or one touchdown. There was no way it was going to happen. Why did it end this way? Maurice could not get it going. Could it be he doesn't have 16 game legs? Is it the offensive line that can't block for him? He seems tired, they seem tired. I don't know.

So why do I feel OK with this game? The defense fought hard without Rahean and Big John. In Miami's last six possessions, the Jaguar defense forced four punts and two turnovers. They adjusted beautifully at halftime and owned the Dolphins in the second half. Miami is a decent team and this defense got it together and almost won the game for us. It was a pleasure watching this defense come alive.

The offense is where things didn't go well today. David didn't play well. Mike Sims-Walker is hurt and Torry can't carry a game. There was no third receiver today. Maurice looks like he has tired legs and can't break tackles as well as earlier in the season. Sadly, Greg Jones suffered a close your eyes leg injury I caught on camera. I won't show it today. He couldn't put any weight on it as he left.

We were beat, but this team fought hard every minute of the game. We are not quite a powerful team yet. We knew this was a year of finding new guys and Gene has done just that. If this team goes 8-8, I am calling it a great success. It is the start of what can get better, much better. This is a good team that knows it can compete. It is a bit tired right now, the veterans, especially on the offensive line, are not holding up. On the other hand, the rookies, this year's rookies and last year's rookies are coming on. Russel Allen is a great run stopping linebacker. Give Gene another year. In the mean time, prayers for Greg, and get ready for the Colts. The last game in the stadium this year is four days away. It was fun in the stadium this year and I think this team deserves a standing ovation.

- Terry O'Brien

NFL Sunday TV Viewing Guide

John (obviousman) — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 15:07:34 -0000

Do you have DirecTV and the NFL Sunday Ticket package? Do you work at, or spend your Sundays at, a bar that does? Do you have a laptop computer so that you can watch scores while watching the game?

Well, here you go. This is the first installment of your NFL Sunday TV Viewing Guide. This is to let you, the Chargers fan, know how to plan your day and which games to keep an eye on. I'll also add in the reasons to watch, and any potential storylines.

1pm EST Games to Watch

There are six(!) games that you should keep an eye on as you settle into that groove on your couch this Sunday.

Broncos at Colts - This is simple enough. The Chargers have a 1 game lead in the AFC West. If the undefeated Colts can keep their winning streak going, that lead can either stay at one (with a SD loss) or grow to two (with just 3 games left). The Colts are the best regular-season team in the league, and they absolutely love playing at home. Their starters will go because they're still playing for that playoff bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The only possible reason for concern is that Peyton Manning does not play his best football against 3-4 defenses.
Jets at Buccaneers - Chargers fans could use a Tampa Bay victory, and there's reason to believe it may happen. The Jets are starting backup QB Kellen Clemens, and the young Bucs have been playing decent football since Josh Freeman took over as the starting QB. A good game by Freeman, as well as TB winning the turnover battle, and Raymond James Stadium will be rocking.
Bengals at Vikings - The Bolts main competition at this point of the season is Denver and Cincinnati. Cincy has the same record as San Diego, and both teams are competing for the last available playoff bye. A win against the Bengals next week would certainly help the Chargers chances, but there's no harm in getting started this week. The Vikings will also be a good barometer for just how good the Bengals are, and will hopefully find some holes in a very good Bengals defense.
Dolphins at Jaguars - I really don't know how this factors in, but it does. A Jacksonville win helps the Chargers clinch the playoffs just that much quicker. I've found the Dolphins to be a fun team to watch this season, and Chad Henne looks like he could be a heck of a QB in the future. The Jags have been a roller-coasted of a team all season, but they appear to finally be playing good football every week.

Anyone notice anything? Those are probably the four most important non-Chargers game for Chargers fans this week, and we're rooting for all home teams. I feel good about that.

Panthers at Patriots - This time we're rooting against the Patriots (what else is new?). Stories swirling out of New England this week lead me to believe that this locker room will either explode, or everyone will suddenly get on the same page and become a winning football team. Even though Matt Moore is playing QB for the Panthers, an outright chemistry explosion for the Patriots leaves any and all possibilities on the table. I don't recommend watching this one, but definitely keep an eye on the score.
Lions at Ravens - Chargers fans should be rooting for the Lions. Yikes. I think Dante Culpepper is going for this one instead of Matthew Stafford, which is good news for the Lions and Calvin Johnson. I don't expect this to be a blowout by any means, but the Ravens basically need to win out to make the playoffs so they'll be playing with a monstrous chip on their shoulder.

4pm EST Game to Watch

Chargers at Cowboys - If you needed me to tell you this, you've found your way to the wrong blog. There's no need to watch them, but I'll be rooting for wins by the Raiders (against the Redskins) and the Rams (against the Titans) just as a way to see the Chargers future opponents get a little bit weaker.