SB Nation - Antoine Cason

San Diego Chargers Defeat Cleveland Browns 30-23

John (obviousman) — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 00:19:13 -0000

16 days ago: San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson (21) runs for nine yards against Cleveland Browns cornerback Eric Wright (24) in the first quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan)

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So it wasn't the game we all envisioned. Who cares? It was silly to expect the Chargers' defense to completely shut down any professional offense without 3 of it's best players. The Browns did the right thing, attacking the kids and going after the lack of depth in the secondary, and they made the game very close in the end.

This was not a trap game and this was not a game where focus was lost. Plain and simple, this was a game that showed off the weaknesses on this San Diego squad. Seven wins in a row is great, but bad health is starting to catch up to them right at the beginning of a tough stretch of games. Without Luis Castillo, the defense struggles to stop the run. Without Shawne Merriman, the defense struggles to get a pass-rush. Without Eric Weddle, there are less blitzes coming from the secondary and Steve Gregory is forced to play Safety (where he is not nearly as effective).

This game came down to health and trust. Did Ron Rivera trust Antoine Cason to cover his man on-on-one? No, and rightfully so. Did he trust Steve Gregory to make the plays in the secondary Weddle would? No, and he's right. Did he trust Kevin Ellison to cover the opposing TE on his own? No, and in instances where it happened the Browns took full advantage.

The score of this game is misleading. It wasn't nearly this close, but that had everything to do with an overpowering offense that couldn't be matched by the Browns no matter how many injuries San Diego's defense had. As I say going into most games, "The worst-case scenario is a shootout, and I like out offense better."

As always, your recommendations for Bolts (and Dolts) are appreciated in the comments. Also, feel free to discuss the Vikings/Cardinals game in the comments here. Here's a quick list of some of my Bolts, before re-watching the game or checking the box score.

Final - 12.6.2009	1	2	3	4	Total
San Diego Chargers	10	3	14	3	30
Cleveland Browns	7	0	0	16	23

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Is Larry English Ready to Start?

John (obviousman) — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 14:13:40 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

San Diego Chargers' Larry English, right, drags down Miami Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne, left, for a loss. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

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Larry English will most likely get the start at OLB this week against the Browns, standing in for Shawne Merriman (who has missed very little time considering all of his injuries this season). Since the Chargers are in the second half of their schedule and it's now "Undefeated Month", this is just the right time to find out what kind of player their first round draft pick is.

Let's start out by seeing where English is in comparison to his peers. I'll be the first to admit that I've kept an eye on all three USC rookie linebackers, and they have all impressed me. Brian Cushing is every bit the player he was in college, Clay Matthews uses his speed to fly around and make plays, and Rey Maualuga is the missile-like force we all thought he'd be when we talked about drafting him.

MLB has not been an issue though, so Maualuga can be forgotten about, and we can take out Cushing because he's playing in a 4-3 and not as a pass-rusher. Besides Matthews, the only other 3 first-round pass-rushers drafted by teams running a 3-4 defense are English, Robert Ayers and Brian Orakpo. Let's compare.

Matthews - (541 plays) 29 tackles, 5 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 5 defended passes, 1 defensive TD.

Ayers - (297 plays) 14 tackles, 0 sacks, 1 defended pass, 1 defensive TD.

Orakpo - (635 plays) 37 tackles, 7 sacks, 2 defended passes.

English - (338 plays) 20 tackles, 2 sacks, 6 QB pressures, 1 forced fumble. Keep in mind that I got the numbers from the guys above from unbiased stat sites, but I got English's numbers from the Chargers coaching staff (thus the extra "QB pressures" stat). The stat sites have him in about 40 less plays and credit him with only 17 tackles.

Since I like to even the playing field, let's find some averages.

Matthews - .05 tackles per play, .009 sacks per play

Ayers - .04 tackles per play, 0 sacks per play

Orakpo - .05 tackles per play, .01 sacks per play

English - .05 tackles per play, .005 sacks per play

So, has he been the complete bust that Ayers appears to be in Denver? No. When you factor in the way he's been used (sporadically, with very little rhythm), you can say he's actually been pretty good.

This week needs to be his coming out party. I know he'll be going up against Joe Thomas, one of the best LTs in the league, but Larry English needs to make everyone stop worrying about whether or not Shawne Merriman is going to play against Dallas or after that. The storylines we need to hear, heading into the playoffs, are the ones about the Chargers "3-headed-monster" at OLB. English's performance, up to this point, has not lived up to that.

In the past couple of years, the Bolts have been "stacked" enough that their first day picks don't have to make a contribution until towards the end of the season and the playoffs. Eric Weddle came on strong at the end of 2007, just like Antoine Cason and Jacob Hester did towards the end of 2008. Louis Vasquez has been pretty good all season, but with the OLBs dropping like flies it's absolutely necessary for Larry English to start contributing more and soon.

Now, let's step away from the stats a little bit. Allow me to vent. Larry English looks small to me. Not just short, but he seems to have a very short wingspan. That worries me. The more I see him on the field, the more he looks like he should be a MLB instead of an OLB. I stumbled across a pre-draft scouting report on him this morning, and here's what it said (I'll highlight the parts that stand out to me)....

Positives: Solid linebacker build, with more than adequate upper-body strength and legs for the position. Good motor, hustles down or across the field until the play is completed, even if initially blocked. Changes direction in space well. Secure wrap-up tackler when man is in his area. Can use his arms to keep linemen and fullbacks off him when standing up. Stays balanced and upright most times on stretch plays. At times he can bounce off a block using his punch. Has quick, violent hands to stay free. Stays at home on option plays until last possible moment. Able to drop back off the line in zone blitzes and stay with tight ends. Strong week of practice at the Senior Bowl eliminated many of the concerns regarding English's level of competition.

Negatives: Lacks the bulk to play with his hand down in the NFL, which he did in college. Gets engulfed by better left tackles on inside pass rush moves, lacks the strength to bull rush and doesn't quite have the speed to get the corner consistently (but has good closing speed when standing up). Fails to hold his ground when directly out of his stance and can't get off the block quickly enough to get to the ball. Will need to prove he can handle coverage duties against better tight ends and that he has zone awareness. Needs to get lower in his backpedal, as he stands a bit tall.

I don't understand. He can't rush inside, he can't bull-rush and he can't speed-rush. What the heck can he do? Even English's big plays this year came mostly off of plays where the coverage was good and he kept his motor going. As much as I'm rooting for the guy, he hasn't shown me anything yet. The fact that he has good speed, strength, intelligence and linebacker size doesn't make him a good pass-rusher.

You can point to Elvis Dumervil and say "There's a short guy who's getting it done!" Actually, both players ran similar 40 times at the Combine, both are about the same weight and Dumervil is at least 2 inches shorter. So yes, you're right. Larry English I guess has the potential to be Elvis Dumervil, and that would be great. I just don't know if I see that happening. Even Elvis had 8.5 sacks his rookie season.

Bolts & Dolts: San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

John (obviousman) — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 14:20:24 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

about 1 month ago: San Diego Chargers' Nate Kaeding (10) kicks a field goal during the first half of an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos, Sunday, Nov. 22, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

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I know, I know. "Everyone's a Bolt!" Not so fast. When the San Diego Chargers raise their game across the board, the criteria for being listed a Bolt or a Dolt is raised as well. This post is meant to spotlight players that had particularly good or bad games. It was a little more difficult in his game, since the Chargers played very well as a team, but I managed. Nit-picking is a specialty of mine.

Also, look out for some new features this week including the "Almost Bolts" and "Almost Dolts".

Bolts

Offense

Philip Rivers - 17/22, 145 yds, 1 TD. Those incomplete passes weren't even that bad. His first incompletion was a ball that was thrown away. The second was a ball knocked down at the line. I didn't even see the last two because I couldn't stay entertained watching the garbage time for a second time. In the first game of the season where he was not asked to carry the offense, Rivers was incredibly efficient.

Running Backs - 43 carries, 203 yds, 2 TDs. The Chargers are no longer the last team in the league in terms of rushing yards per game. They're 30th. Any idea who is 31st? The undefeated Indianapolis Colts. Take that, losers.

LaDainian Tomlinson - 20 carries, 73 yds, 1 TD. I have no idea what the negativeness after the game was about. Why are people sad to see LT producing at this level? If you thought he was going to be putting up 150 yards per game, you're nuts. There's a reason he broke a bunch of records in such a short timespan, and that's because most players' bodies could not stand the punishment that his body has taken for so long. At this point, with good blocking, he's a smart RB that is going to take what the defense gives to him. That's a big improvement over what he was earlier this season. 20 carries, about 80 yards and a TD every game would be perfect in my book.
Mike Tolbert - 7 carries, 58 yds, 1 TD. Everyone is so quick to look at Tolbert's body shape and say that he's the next Lorenzo Neal. They want him to be the big blocking back that's going to kill linebackers at the point of attack. The fact of the matter is, FBs like that are not nearly as useful in this offense and in today's NFL as FBs like Tolbert. Tolbert can run, catch and block. He's as strong as most linebackers and faster than most as well. He's just as dangerous with the ball in his hands as somebody like Darren Sproles. He's a faster, shiftier Mike Alstott. I couldn't be happier with the season he's having.
Jacob Hester - 7 carries, 46 yds. Apparently, with a bit of blocking, Hester is the RB that AJ Smith envisioned he could be. His 6.6 YPC certainly helped to beat up a downtrodden Denver Broncos team late in the game. I don't buy that he's finally figured it out, especially since he wasn't very good during the early part of the game (3 catches, 0 yards and a bunch of slips). Here's to hoping that's the player we see for the rest of the season though.

Wide Receivers - 12 catches, 137 yds, 1 TD. It all looked too easy. Antonio Gates was uncoverable. Vincent Jackson made some plays, but Philip didn't need to force the ball to him. Malcom Floyd made plays outside of the first quarter and is turning into Rivers' second favorite target on third downs. Legedu Naanee may have made the play of the game on his TD grab. Watch it again and see how badly he jukes D.J. Williams. The reason Rivers could throw the ball was because Williams had to turn his back to the line of scrimmage to try to catch Naanee after getting humiliated at the goal line.

Offensive Line - 4.7 Yards Per Carry, Zero Sacks Allowed. No, I still haven't heard anything more about Jeromey Clary besides that it's "serious". I could've told you that when Rivers, Eric Weddle and other players were coming up to the cart to wish Clary good luck. Those players know what the doctors are saying, and they know that will probably be the last time they share the field with Clary for a while.

Still, before and after that, the offensive line played great. The running backs had big holes to run through all game, and Rivers having all the time in the world is what made him so efficient. There wasn't a forced pass out of his 22 attempts. In the last few weeks, Kris Dielman, Scott Mruczkowski and Louis Vasquez have all gotten significantly better individually and as a group (Marcus McNeill has been really good all season). Hopefully they can hold onto that success once Nick Hardwick takes over the starting Center job again.

Defense

Shaun Phillips - 3 tackles, 1 sack. He makes the plays the offense allows him to make. You really can't ask for more than that. When he's not double-teamed, Shaun usually beats his man and makes the QB feel very uncomfortable in the pocket. When he has to cover a TE or RB, he's so close the QB is afraid to throw at him. Ron Rivera has done a great job of freeing him up to make more plays.

Kevin Burnett - 8 tackles, 2 sacks. If Burnett can ever figure out how to stay healthy, he could be a Pro Bowl player. He flat-out flies around the field, hitting people hard or at least wrapping them up cleanly. As good of a blitzer as Stephen Cooper is (was?), Burnett is much better. Remember all of the talk of the Larry English/Shaun Phillips/Shawne Merriman formation that would keep all 3 guys on the field with Phillips playing the "Wild Card" position? English hasn't been effective enough, but Burnett seems to fit that role just fine.

Eric Weddle - 6 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit. I called it towards the end of last year. Weddle is the best blitzer on the entire team. Not the best pass-rusher, but definitely the best blitzer. The better Paul Oliver plays in the secondary, the more Weddle is free to come flying around the corner and hit the QB. On top of changing yesterday's game with his blitzes, he played outstanding coverage and saved a TD and a bunch of Denver momentum with his tackle on Knowshon Moreno in the open field.

Antonio Cromartie - 4 tackles, 1 pass defense, 1 interception. Really this is a Bolt for Cromartie's play over the last 6 weeks. He didn't do anything special or different in yesterday's game that he hasn't already been doing for a month and a half now, he just got lucky enough to be in position to get his hands on the ball. He has been a complete and total shutdown corner, playing as good as or better than Quentin Jammer the entire time. Also, his episode of Chargers Roll as fantastic. He admitted that in the past he basically relied on his talent and didn't go 100% in practice, and that changing that around is what has made him better in the games. Even his tackling is much improved.

Steve Gregory - 3 tackles, 3 passes defended, 2 recovered fumbles. Apparently Steve Gregory and his physical play near the line of scrimmage was the key to the defense. Who knew? I don't think he made a mistake all game, and consistently put himself in position to stop the guy he was defending. Good things happen around Gregory, they seemingly always have, and that trend continued yesterday as he fell on top of two critical fumbles. Benching Antoine Cason in place of Gregory was absolutely the right move, and my questioning of it proves that I don't have what it takes to be an NFL coach.

Special Teams

Nate Kaeding - 4/4 FGs, 2/3 XPs. Did you hear that stat the commentators brought up about how many consecutive FGs Nate has made inside 40 yds? It was ridiculous. I don't recall it, but I recall thinking that it equaled out to more than an entire season. Kaeding is having a Pro Bowl-caliber season this year, and his performance in Denver (including a handful of touchbacks on kickoffs) cemented that.

Coaching

I'm not going to single out anybody. They've all been good. Norv Turner has been the cool hand to guide the team along and Ron Rivera has been the mad scientist who gets better at the 3-4 each week. Even the lesser-known coaches such as Hal Hunter, Don Johnson, Charlie Joiner, Ollie Wilson....they've all faced some obstacles this season and each one has brought their unit up to the level of a winning team. There are players that deserve accolades for this team being in 1st place in the division, and they'll get them, but just about every member of the Chargers coaching staff deserves a pat on the back for a fine job weathering the early-season storm.

Dolts

Offense

There were no offensive Dolts this week.

Defense

There were no defensive Dolts this week.

Special Teams

Darren Sproles - 3 punt returns, 6 PR yds, 1 fumble. Somebody has to teach Sproles how to fair-catch the ball. Please. His penchant for trying to catch it with a guy half a yard away from him is the type of minor flaw that could become a huge, glaring flaw in the postseason. Has he ever done anything great with one of those? There's really two options when he's catching the ball like that.

Fumble the ball, hopefully out of bounds.
Catch the ball, take a hard hit and hold onto the ball.

Almost Bolts

Paul Oliver - He's making it really hard for Kevin Ellison to get back on the field. Not only are his coverage skills really good, but he's starting to play with a mean streak and lay some big hits.
Shawne Merriman - Kindof. He almost deserves a Dolt as well, if you were just looking at the box score. However, if you watched the game you noticed that even Ryan Clady couldn't handle Shawne on his own and had a TE or RB to help on just about every play. This meant that the blitzers Rivera was bringing over the RT were running free, because the Broncos would rather have that than Merriman going one-on-one against their Pro Bowl LT.
James Holt - Great job on Special Teams, kid.

Almost Dolts

Kevin Ellison - When Oliver is playing as well as he is, you have to make a play and an impression on the coaching staff when they send you on the field. Playing 10 yards off of Tony Scheffler and not competing for the ball is not going to cut it.
Stephen Cooper - Cooper's terrible skills in zone coverage is what made it so easy for Kyle Orton to move Denver down the field at the end of the first half. Eventually, with a big enough lead, Rivera stopped calling zone and it stopped being such a big problem. It doesn't erase the fact that Cooper is a liability in zone coverage and everyone knows it.

Chargers Stat of the Day: Defensive Ratings

John (obviousman) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:05:35 -0000

by Chris Park - AP

The San Diego Chargers defense swarms Brian Westbrook during the Chargers 31-23 victory in a NFL football game Sunday Nov. 15, 2009 in San Diego. (AP Photo/Chris Park)

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Attention all nerds. Do you head straight to Football Outsiders when you're looking for better-than-average stats? Well, I found another website that you're going to want to bookmark. (Editor's Note: This is not a paid advertisement. I've never even talked with the guys from this website. So if this sounds like a sales-pitch, it's not.)

ProFootballFocus.com is a website that football stat-geeks have been dying for without knowing it. Just about any question you have about the team can be answered within their stats. Want to know who has played the most defensive plays for the Bolts? Eric Weddle, with 544. How about which player has the most QB Pressures? It's a tie between Luis Castillo and Shaun Phillips (both have 10). Wondering who the best MLB on the Chargers is? You'll be surprised.

Let's delve into some of PFF's defensive stats and player ratings...

I was taught a long time ago to never argue with someone who was smarter than me. I almost never abide by this rule, but today I'll make an exception. These guys have done such a great job at collecting stats, that I'm going to assume they do just as good of a job comparing them.

In terms of defense, it appears they look at all of the stats (sacks, QB hits, QB pressures, tackles, penalties, missed tackles, stops) and compare them relative to the number of plays the player had played. So a played like Brandon Siler, who has 10 stops on 104 plays, would be looked at as a more efficient player when he's on the field than Stephen Cooper (22 stops in 454 plays).

Each player is rated based upon their work rushing the passer, stopping the run and in pass coverage. Also factored in are things like Penalties being called against that player (surprisingly, leading the Chargers D in penalties is a tie between Shawne Merriman, Shaun Phillips and Larry English) and Missed Tackles.

The missed tackles stat also needs to be looked at proportionally against actual tackles. For instance, Stephen Cooper leads the team with 10 missed tackles to go with his 48 tackles on the season. However, that's probably not as bad as Antonio Cromartie's 6 missed tackles with only 15 tackles to his name.

So, follow me down the rabbit hole as we look at PFF's ratings of Chargers defensive players by position group. The number next to each player is their PFF Rating, which is roughly explained here. In a nutshell, zero is average across the league and any number above that is above average. Any number below is obviously below average. Also, for the sake of this not being too confusing, I'm leaving out any player who has been on the field for less than 75 snaps.

Defensive Line

Travis Johnson -1.5
Ian Scott -3.0
Alfonso Boone -3.1
Ogemdi Nwagbuo -3.1
Jacques Cesaire -9.5
Luis Castillo -10.3

How about that trade for Johnson? The Castillo number is a bit jarring, but appears to be accurate. Although he's near the top on the team in terms of defensive stops and QB pressures, apparently relative to the number of plays he's played it's just not as impressive as it has seemed. Also, according to their individual rankings he's fairly average at rushing the passer and well below average at stopping the run. For those looking for a comparison, Castillo's 2008 was ranked at 0.8 (or just a little above average) and Jamal Williams' 2008 was ranked at 27.4. 27.4! In 2007, Castillo was well above average at 7.7 when he was on the field.

Linebackers

Brandon Siler 5.8
Shaun Phillips 2.7
Kevin Burnett 2.6
Stephen Cooper -2.4
Tim Dobbins -2.7
Shawne Merriman -3.3
Larry English -12.2

I told you this stuff was interesting. As mentioned above, Cooper is killed by his missed tackles and by being below-average (-1.5) in pass coverage. Siler is actually the only LB that ranks as above average against the run and in pass coverage this year. Phillips would probably be #1 if it weren't for the 4 penalties he's picked up this season. This group is greatly improved from 2008, when no LB ranked as average or above average (Wilhelm was -16.9 if you were wondering).

Cornerbacks

Antoine Cason 1.4
Steve Gregory -1.0
Quentin Jammer -3.8
Antonio Cromartie -5.6

Jammer is actually playing better than he did in 2008, when his season ranking was -5.9. The stats seem a little off for cornerbacks in terms of what's "average", but at least they appear to be consistent. Cromartie's 2008 rating? -27.4. He was the anti-Jamal Williams.

Safties

Eric Weddle 3.7
Paul Oliver 0.5
Clinton Hart -1.8
Kevin Ellison -2.7

Before you start screaming about Hart being rated ahead of Ellison, listen up. Here's what I gather as the explanation by looking at the stats they're presenting. Both players are equal against the run (0.5), and the rookie actually better in pass coverage (-2.3 to -3.7), but the main two factors that catapult Hart above Ellison is penalties (zero for Hart, 2 for Ellison) and pass rushing (1.4 for Hart, 0.1 for Ellison). I can't entirely disagree with that, and considering these guys are charting the plays and I'm not....I'm going to believe them.

Still, it was the right move to get rid of Hart. Ellison is an improving player and Clinton was a declining one. Also, it has opened up plenty of playing time for Paul Oliver (who is obviously playing well).

So what do you guys think? Interesting stuff, right? Obviously, like all stats, these are not perfect. From what I can tell, these ratings do not factor in the level of competition being faced (which explains why Gregory would be higher than Jammer and Cromartie) nor do they factor in double-teams (which explains why Luis Castillo is down this year and why Shaun Phillips had such a poor rating in 2008). Still, in terms of judging who is making the most impact with their time on the field....it's intriguing.

Stats and rankings taken from ProFootballFocus.com do not include information from the Week 10 match-up against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Bolts & Dolts: Eagles @ Chargers

John (obviousman) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 11:38:03 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates plows through Philadelphia Eagles' Asante Samuel, left, and Dimitri Patterson after catching one of his eight reception in the third quarter of the Chargers 31-23 victory during the a NFL football game Sunday Nov. 15, 2009 in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

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When I got home from the Giants game last week (at about 10pm), I was still wearing my white LT jersey. As I mentioned last week, my jersey of choice is the powder-blue 17 but I had let my bodyguard/friend wear it during the game since it's much bigger and the 21 wouldn't have even fit him. Usually the 21 sits in the closet or my wife throws it on.

Anyways, I got home and, pumped off a dramatic and unlikely day, decided that the jersey was lucky. I declared that, until proven otherwise, the jersey was not to be washed and was going to be worn during all Chargers games. Based off of the jersey's performance yesterday (win vs. Eagles, loss for Broncos), I'd say it still has some good juju in it. An honorary Bolt goes to my lucky Tomlinson jersey for yesterday's victory.

Now, onto the real Bolts & Dolts....

Bolts

Offense

Philip Rivers - 20/25, 231 yds, 2 TDs. This may have been Philip's most efficient game all season. There was no inaccurate passes and even the 5 incomplete balls were either thrown out of bounds or catchable balls. He was feeling it yesterday and it's a big reason why the offense was able to put up 31 points.

LaDainian Tomlinson - 24 carries, 96 yds, 2 TDs. Welcome to the party, LT! A really strong game from him. The play call certainly helped. He was put behind the defense with draw plays when they were selling out, and the secondary couldn't focus on him because of their lack of talent at CB. It was a perfect scenario and LT came through in a big way. I wish he could've gotten over 100 yds, but I'm sure any game where he ends up with a 4.0 YPC is a good one in his book.

Antonio Gates - 7 catches, 78 yds. Think Antonio Gates worked on catching the ball after his 2 big drops last week? He was targeted 8 times and came up with the ball 7 of those times. The other time it was knocked away by a defender. This is a case of the coaching staff identifying a weakness (Eagles struggle covering TEs) and attacking it.

Legedu Naanee - 3 catches, 42 yds, 1 TD. I was worried about this. The Eagles had 2 good CBs to defend Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd, but nobody after that. Most teams would say "okay, the slot WR is going to have a big game", but Naanee had been almost invisible in this offense since the early part of the season up until last week against the Giants. Hopefully, with two big weeks in a row, he's turned a corner and will be a weekly weapon for Rivers. We know his upside (speed, size, hands, strength) and he put it to use in getting the TD catch and also with a clutch catch to extend the Chargers final offensive drive.

Mike Tolbert - 2 catches, 25 yds, 1 TD. Tolbert is really turning into a hell of a FB, and the player we all hoped he would become when he came burst on the scene last season. Not only was his TD grab awesome (he looks like Sproles when he gets the ball in his hands!), but his run-blocking was near-perfect all night.

Defense

Kevin Burnett - 9 tackles, 1 tackle-for-loss, 1 QB hit, 1 defended pass. Welcome back in a big way, KB. I was wondering how Burnett would react when I saw the e-mail that said Brandon Siler was getting the start. To be fair, Burnett led the team in tackles mostly because the Eagles targeted the MLBs in zone with their WRs. However, when he wasn't chasing 150-pound WRs, Burnett was making goal-line stands and defending TEs on big plays. Just another good all-around game from the new guy. Let's hope he can stay healthy now.

Paul Oliver - 6 tackles, 1 sack. Dare I say it? I think the SS-by-committee approach is working. Oliver plays very well in coverage, but doesn't offer much in run support. Kevin Ellison is a beast in run-support, but doesn't offer much in the way of coverage. You'd think this would make it easy for the offense, but Ron Rivera has been pressing the right buttons at this spot and it's working. Against the Eagles' pass-happy offense, Oliver played significantly more than Ellison and played well. Next week, against the Broncos team that is struggling to pass the ball and may be missing their starting QB, he may not see much of the field.

Quentin Jammer - 6 tackles. Not Q's best game in terms of coverage, but to be fair DeSean Jackson is probably twice as fast as him. However, Jammer's tackling was a game-changer. Especially when it was him on Brent Celek, one-on-one and Jammer won the battle (this happened at least twice). Huge game for him and I just hope there's no residual effects from that hit on his leg by Weddle.

Special Teams

Mike Scifres - 4 punts, 50 yd average, 2 inside opp. 20. Scifres is slowly, but surely, working his way back up the punting charts after playing for a few weeks with a tweaked groin. He's 8th in punting average, 10th in net punting average and 10th in the number on punts that have landed inside the opponents' 20 yard line. A lot of people are quick to hold every game he has against the one he played in Indy last season, but that's really unfair. That was a once-in-a-lifetime game for a guy that is still putting on great punting displays week-in and week-out.

Dolts

Offense

Darren Sproles/Norv Turner - 2 carries, 14 rush yds, 4 catches, 31 rec yds. The reason this is Darren/Norv is because Darren's bad game is half Norv's fault. Look at Norv's playcall on 3rd & short for the entire game:

(Shotgun) P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to V.Jackson.
D.Sproles left end to SD 33 for no gain (M.Fokou).
D.Sproles right tackle to PHI 25 for no gain (Q.Mikell, W.Witherspoon). PENALTY on PHI-R.Robinson, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 25 - No Play.
(Shotgun) P.Rivers pass short middle to L.Naanee to PHI 15 for 18 yards (V.Harris, W.Witherspoon).

If you disregard the penalty that kept that drive alive, that's a 25% conversion rate on 3rd & short. There's not a single run by LT, Jacob Hester or Mike Tolbert in that situation. I understand Sproles is quick/strong enough that he can usually get that last yard, but only when it's a surprise and it just isn't anymore. It's time to start trusting LT on 3rd & short again.

Defense

Pass-Rush - 2 sacks, 4 QB hits. It took 4 quarters, but I understand what the defensive gameplan was. The Chargers prevented the Eagles from throwing deep (for the most part) and then locked down when they got near to goal line. The gameplan was to try FGs for TDs, and it worked. Because they were often playing zone, this meant a lot less CB and Safety blitzes than we've become accustomed to lately. This meant less creativity on the defensive side of the football. Essentially the Chargers were rushing 4 or 5 guys on every play, and just about everyone knew who was coming and from where. The couple of times things got creative, it worked (Oliver's sack, Gregory blowing up the double-reverse).

I'm not saying there should've been more blitzes. I agree with the gameplan. However, I think Shawne Merriman, Shaun Phillips and Larry English were pretty easily handled and I did not like to see that. I don't want to believe that the only reason those guys were having success was because of all of the blitzing from elsewhere. I'll instead choose to believe that Merriman and Phillips injuries were the culprit.

Steve Gregory - 4 tackles. A lot of people were afraid that this game would eventually come, and it did. Gregory has shown himself to be an excellent player within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He's great supporting the run, can stop the short pass and can even bump a WR when given the opportunity. He's tough. However, against the team like the Eagles that prefers to play downfield instead of near the line, he was exposed for his lack of footspeed. If you thought you saw more of Antoine Cason late in the game, you did.

SG will be fine. He'll continue to be an improvement over Cason in the short-passing game and in run support, so he'll keep his job for now. However, against a team like the Cowboys you'll probably see more of Cason covering downfield. This is just a matter of the coaches coaching according to their personnel.

Bolts & Dolts: San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

John (obviousman) — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 11:06:38 -0000

More photos » by Ed Zurga - AP

about 1 month ago: San Diego Chargers running back Darren Sproles (43) gets past Kansas City Chiefs safety Jon McGraw (47) during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 25, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. Sproles ran 58 yard for a touchdown on the play. The Chargers beat the Chiefs 37-7. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

Browse more photos »

I know it won't come as a surprise, but there won't be many "Dolts" after yesterday's game. It was a well-played game against a weaker opponent, so I'll tone down the positive rhetoric as well.

The one thing that should be noted, though, is that for the first time in a long time the Chargers did not play down to their weaker opponent. This was a game they knew they should dominate and they did. With a weak schedule ahead of them, this is a fantastic sign of things to come.

Onto the best and worst from Week 7's win in KC.

Bolts

Offense

Philip Rivers - 18/30, 268 yards, 3 TDs (122.6 QB Rating). No interceptions and no mistakes. The only way the Chiefs were going to be competitive in this game was if they got a few turnovers, and Philip made sure that wasn't going to happen. His deep ball wasn't perfect (it was raining), but it was good enough. Add on his 2 runs for 18 yards (is that becoming a weapon?) and you have a great all-around game. Everything we'd expect from Rivers when he's given time to throw.

Vincent Jackson - 5 catches, 142 yards, 1 TD. (Yawn) Another average day for Vincent Jackson. He's having a hell of a season. In the offseason I was hoping the Chargers wouldn't try to sign him, because top-flight WRs are extraordinarily expensive, and now I think he should be the team's top priority. Apparently top WRs are so expensive because they're worth it. It should be noted that VJ came about 6 inches away from having 2 TDs yesterday.

Darren Sproles - 5 rushes, 41 rush yds, 3 catches, 58 rec yds, 1 rec TD. Sproles was used to perfection in yesterday's game. This is precisely what I'd like to see from him every week. He wasn't forced to be the focal point of the running attack, and he made one big play catching the ball out of the backfield that put the game out of reach. He was also solid, but unspectacular, in the return game. Can you really argue with a 8.2 yards-per-carry and 19.3 yards-per-reception?

Mike Tolbert - 1 catch, 2 yards. This has nothing to do with stats. Mike Tolbert is developing into the FB that everybody wanted him to become when they saw his Lorenzo Neal-like frame. The running game works much better when he's blocking for LaDainian Tomlinson instead of Jacob Hester. Enough of the FB by committee. Tolbert should be the full-time FB.

Defense

Tim Dobbins - 11 tackles, 1 defended pass, 1 interception. What a game! He looked better than Stephen Cooper out there. Dobbins was all over the place, making tackles and making plays. Would I trust him in coverage against the Broncos or Colts? I don't know. The Chiefs couldn't really test his pass coverage, but everything they threw at him he destroyed.

Defensive Front Seven - You know how every time Eric Weddle ends up the team's leading tackler, nobody is real happy about it? If a Safety is your lead tackler, your front seven didn't do their job....right? Let's look at the Chargers' leading tacklers from yesterday by position:

Dobbins (LB)
Siler (LB)
Phillips (LB)
Merriman (LB)
Gregory (Nickel CB)

Luis Castillo - 2 tackles. Luis was a beast yesterday that the Chiefs could not contain. He stopped running plays in their tracks, got consistent pressure on Matt Cassel and even tackled a WR "over the middle". Although the stats don't show it, and they normally won't if you're the best player on the 3-4 defensive line, this may be turning into the best season of Castillo's career.

Steve Gregory - 4 tackles, 1 sack, 2 defended passes, 1 interception. The most questioned member of the Chargers "re-tooled" secondary had the biggest game. We certainly saw why he was moved to Nickel CB over Antoine Cason. What Gregory lacks in size, he makes up for in physicality, toughness and smarts. He was much better rushing the passer from the nickel spot than Cason has ever been. He took risks that I don't think Cason would've ever taken, and they usually worked out. I still worry about Steve getting burned by a fast receiver, but the Chargers needed desperately to win the short game before worrying about the deep game and Gregory helps them in that regard.

Eric Weddle - 3 tackles, 1 sack, 1 defended pass. Eric Weddle has turned into exactly what I thought he would when he was drafted. He is a solid, intelligent player that delivers consistently. Is he a great leader? Not necessarily. Does he have weaknesses? Sure, he can't really cover TEs. Still, what he can do he does very well and he's hardly every out of position. I think one of Eric's best talents is rushing the passer, and Ron Rivera apparently agrees. In obvious passing situations yesterday, Kevin Ellison was taken off the field and Weddle was moved to SS as a sometimes-blitzer (with Paul Oliver playing FS). The Bolts saw plenty of success with that personnel, and I imagine we'll see more of it in the future.

Special Teams

Jacob Hester - 1 blocked punt, 1 fumble recovery, 1 ST TD, 3 rushes, 8 rush yds. For as much as I've been disappointed in him as a FB/HB this year, I've been just as impressed with Jacob on special teams. Which is funny, considering Tolbert was the one who was kept on the roster because of his contributions on special teams. I think he should still be a part of the offense, because he has soft hands and good speed, but I don't know exactly where he fits. Either way, Hester may be the rightful heir to Kassim Osgood's special teams throne in 2010.

Mike Scifres - 4 punts, 49.0 yards-per-punt, 2 punts inside opposing 20 yd line. Yesterday's game included a 63 yard punt from Scifres, which means he's 100% healthy or close to it again. Also, when facing one of the better punters in the league, Scifres had a higher YPP, less touchbacks (0-1) and didn't have any of his kicks blocked (0-1). Although it was a good competition, Mike came out the victor.

Dolts

Offense

Chris Chambers - thrown to 4 times, 0 catches. Fans and coaching staff alike have always looked past Chambers' dropped passes because he caught the ball when it mattered. On third down, in the fourth quarter, in a playoff game, etc. When the heat is on, Chris' hands turn to magnets. Not the case yesterday. There were several drives that were stopped dead in their tracks because he couldn't make an easy catch on 3rd down. That's not acceptable.

Brandyn Dombrowski - Before you can win a football game, you need to eliminate mental errors. When you line up as an eligible receiver, you better know it and you better know to report. Especially when you're that close to the end zone. That was a really stupid mistake that ended up costing the Chargers 7 points. In a close games, mental errors mean everything. Thank you lucky stars it wasn't a close game and work on thinking when you're on the field.

Editor's Note. I am not including the offensive line because as poor as they may have been when close to the goal line, they were fantastic otherwise. It was apparent to everybody watching that the Chargers were desperately trying to get LT a running TD, just as it's apparent that LT can no longer get any yards when running to the outside. The Chiefs did the right thing in putting 10 or 11 guys in the box and sending them all at Tomlinson. That's part of what made the Offensive Line's job so difficult down there.

Defense

There are no defensive Dolts this week.

MHR Chalk Talk - Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (Week 6, '09)

Steve Nichols — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 16:56:25 -0000

First, Denver beat the Bengals. Turns out that the Bengals are a pretty good team. Then Denver beat the Browns; no big whoop. Then the Broncos beat the Raiders. Not many of the Raider Nation even bothered to show up for it. Several folks in the media said the Cowboys would put the Broncos in their place. As soon as the Broncos won, those media heads started questioning the Cowboys. Now the hard part of the schedule starts, and the Patriots show up. Yes; Denver bopped their way past the Pats, and folks questioned just how good Brady really is.

Forget about it! Denver is for real, and "proving ourselves" was never the goal. The goal is the AFC West and a playoff berth. The Raiders know more about figure skating than football, and the Chiefs look like they just sold Manhattan for a few beads. That leaves the SD Chargers as the only threat to the Broncos and the playoffs, and this isn't the same team they were last year.

LaDainian Tomlinson at RB? How about the 32nd ranked running game in the NFL. ROLB Shawne Merriman? May never be the same player again after the knee injury. Missing the offensive center and the defense's nose tackle to injury? Priceless.

SD hasn't looked this shaken since the last earthquake. Piece of cake? No, not really. SD is at home on a Monday night, they still have Phillip Rivers, Chris Chambers, Antonio Gates, and Vincent Jackson. They are also coming off of a much needed bye week, which means rest for injuries and more time to game plan. This is not a game to get too comfortable with.

The SD Offense versus the DEN Defense

What happens when you take the worst running team in the NFL (SD avg per game - 53.8 yards) and match it with the 6th best running defense in the League?

SD has spent years relying on Tomlinson to carry the ball. Heck, the guy can run, catch, throw and block. He's the all-around, real deal of RBs. But this year, nursing a hurt ankle at age 30, Tomlinson is on track for his worst year ever. 1 TD, 1 fumble (lost), 3.5 yards per carry (his longest was only 13), 2 receptions (for a total of 1 yard), and a grand 70 yards to show for the season.

Here is what you need to know about the SD offense.

The running game is bad. Real bad.
The passing game is good. Real good. (295.5 yards per game - 2nd in the NFL).
Rivers likes to throw deep.
To throw deep, he needs time to let the receivers get deep.
Denver's pass rush is monstrously good.
SD's offensive line (from center to left tackle) isn't so hot.
SD's running game isn't going to do much to keep Denver's safeties from the deep field.

What all of this means is that the Chargers have two choices in this game. First, they have to establish a running game. This seems highly unlikely, as the match-up is just too hard to overcome. The second option would be for Rivers to create short route threats to compliment a few deep balls here and there. Enter Antonio Gates.

As always, TE Gates is a favorite target of Rivers. Gates was such a threat, that Denver used to match Bailey against him. SD countered brilliantly by bringing in Chris Chambers (WR) from the Dolphins, giving Gates room to do his thing.

In my mind, SD has three threats in the air. Chambers, Vincent Jackson, and TE Gates. As they've done against other teams this year with threats at TE, Denver will attempt to neutralize the TEs indirectly. Instead of focusing on coverage, Denver will likely go after Rivers, forcing the Chargers to keep their TE in to block. Between CBs Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman, and even Jack Williams (rising in his level of play) and rookie hot shot Alphonso Smith, Denver can cover the WR threat. If the ball gets too deep, legendary safety Brian Dawkins and safety Renaldo Hill (playing very well in his first year with Denver) should stop any deep threats.

Another quick note on the running game. SD is an odd duck, in that (unlike other teams) they prefer to run to the weak side on most plays. With the left side of the OL looking weak, this should limit LT or Darren Sproles.

SD offense - game plan

Can SD run against Denver? I don't think that they can. But if they don't at least make the effort, it can cause headaches for the passing game (and Rivers, who has been getting sacked quite a bit this year). Because SD has good depth at TE (and because they aren't so hot at the outside of the offensive line), and because they face a 3-4 defense (really a 5-2 in my opinion), SD should use a lot of 2 TE looks. To aid with the run, they should use twin TE looks (both TEs to the same side).

From this formation, they can attempt runs with extra protection to one side, or go into quick passes with those TEs. They can also set up screens for Darren Sproles, who is a major threat on STs returns and could be deadly in screen situations.

SD needs to have a credible running game, or at least a consistent, short passing game to set up the vertical passes that Rivers likes. He already faces an incredible Denver secondary, so he'll need to do everything he can to sell the short yardage game.

When passing long, Rivers will need to be in a shotgun formation (the QB further from scrimmage to buy time). The advantage for Rivers here is time to drop back and throw, but the disadvantage is that the defense will clamp down on each player lined up as a receiver. If the OL continues to play poorly, any sacks this far from scrimmage will be hard to overcome.

DEN Defense - game plan

It doesn't get old. Denver needs pressure, pressure, and more pressure. Denver's pressure and penetration is not only the reason that teams have a hard time passing against Denver, but it also causes major disruptions in the run game. With five players on the line (and with even the OLBs being true [former] DEs), Denver's defense presents pass rush and run disruption opportunities on every play. But the SD offense is particularly exposed. With the loss of center Nick Hardwick, the rest of the OL seems to be in chaos.

Denver can play man to man with the SD WRs with no problem, and leave the safeties back for over-coverage. The front five can penetrate, while the two true LBs (both leading the team in tackles) can zone the center for runs or passes over the middle.

The presence of sack-machine Elvis Dumervil is perhaps the biggest threat on the field for Denver's defense. SD will not stop him one on one, but a team can't afford to double him with four other defensive players right on the line.

The DEN Offense versus the SD Defense

What happens when the 27th run defense in the League (SD, giving up 151 yards a game) meets the 5th best run offense in the League (DEN, gaining 139 yards a game)?

Let's give Orton some credit. His QB rating is 97.4, which is slightly better than River's 90.6. Orton's only INT of the year was an end of half hail Mary throw. He played his first four games with Denver wearing a restrictive glove to protect an injured finger, and still performed like a pro. Folks call him a game manager (as if this is a derogatory term), but the correct title for Orton is "winner". Orton has a good arm (yes, the "noodle" moniker was bs). But Orton's best quality is intelligence. He's picked up a complex system very quickly, and adjusts to radical changes in game planning (and the play book) each week. So let's give the guy credit. And then....

Let's run the ball.

SD is hurting on both sides of the ball. Injuries have hurt this team, and the team is off to a slow start from many players who were considered to be play makers. But there is one threat on the field for SD that is a constant, and that is Rivers. To keep Rivers off the field, Denver should use their vaunted running game against a weak run defense. Orton is capable of beating the SD pass defense, and has a lot of weapons. SD, on the other hand, just released a safety on Wed (Clinton Hart), and there has been talk of benching CB Antonio Cromartie (a once rising player). Antoine Cason may be the answer for this team at CB. Meanwhile, Quentin Jammer will face either Brandon Marshall or Eddie Royal this week, leaving the rest of the SD DBs to deal with the other WR, plus Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Stokley (not to mention TE threats Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler).

But at least there is potential for hope in the SD secondary. The SD defensive line has looked dreadful, and the LBs have looked ordinary. It could be the decimation of the SD D-line, or it could be the defection of D-line coach Wayne Nunnely from SD to Denver. But the weakness of the SD defense is the front seven, and Denver can run at it.

Buckhalter is back at practice, and should be ready for Monday. Moreno has been looking better and better. Why not score early, then just run the ball down the Chargers' throats? There's nothing like a good running game to take the other team's fans out of a game and to wear down the opposing team (notice how Denver has looked great in the second half? That's endurance conditioning).

DEN Offense - game plan

If there is a game to run the ball, this is it. Keep the other team's biggest threat (Rivers) off the field, and match up a very good running game against a terrible run defense. Focus on running the gut to allow Orton his signature screens and quick hitches to the edges of the field. Nothing fancy here, just good old fashioned smash mouth football.

But when we DO throw the ball, Orton should stick with his bread and butter plays. No need to take chances in this game; just make the high percentage, quick throws to keep the clock going and to limit INTs. Let playmakers like Marshall and Royal make the big plays after the short catch. Against a team that isn't tackling too well, screens with downfield blockers can be deadly.

SD Defense - game plan

This team hasn't proven that they can rush the passer, nor stop the run. They also face a credible air attack from Orton. This is not a good defense.

In such situations, you take away the big plays as best you can and hope that long drives by the opposition will result in a failure to convert or a turn over. SD has good CBs, and shouldn't "waste" them in zone. The CBs may be the best part of this defense. Man the CBs, and deep zone both safeties. Dedicate one LB to manning the Denver RB, and zone the remaing LBs. It is a simplistic plan, and not a good one. But SD doesn't seem to have many options here.

SD likes to strip the ball, but they need to focus on making sound tackles for this game. What they've been doing hasn't been working.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Match-ups

(Team with advantage is in bold and italics)

Denver Offense vs SD Defense

Points - 19.8 (22nd) vs Points - 25.5 (25th)

Yards - 376.8 (6th) vs Yards - 365.8 (26th)

Pass - 237.8 (15th) vs Pass - 214.8 (12th)

Rush - 139 (5th) vs Rush - 151 (27th)

* * *

Denver Defense vs SD Offense

Points - 8.6 (1st) vs 25.2 (10th)

Yards - 252.8 (2nd) vs 349.2 (10th)

Pass - 171.8 (5th) vs 295.5 (2nd)

Rush - 81 (6th) vs 53.8 (32nd)

In summary, SD has advantages in only two areas - passing, and stopping the pass. But those advantages are small in terms of ranking and yards. (Part of the pass stats for SD may be the last quarter of the PITT game, where PITT played prevent and gave up a lot of yards and 21 points). On the other hand, Denver's advantages in other categories are much wider.

Noteworthy is that SD is losing their average game - 25.2 to 25.5 (they have no room for error in their games). Meanwhile, Denver wins their average game 19.8 to 8.6

Denver clobbers SD in running the ball and in defending the run.

Keys to the Game

Denver -

Make this a running game. Denver has a massive advantage running the ball and stopping the run. SD's only chance is Philip Rivers, and perhaps a major ST play. So...
Don't allow Sproles (or anyone else) to be a difference maker on ST.
And most of all - Pressure Rivers early, often, and hard.

San Diego -

If you want your best weapon to have a chance, you had better protect Rivers. Good protection also means you can sneak Gates out to the flats.
SD might not be able to stop the run. But they must keep it in check. Give up a few yards here and there, but don't give up a big play on the ground.
Win the turnover war. Orton may be "due" for an INT, but don't count on it. Instead, make sure you fall on anything a Denver RB or QB fumbles. You'll need those chances. Denver gets their yards in bits and pieces, and a turnover can be devastating. Don't miss any opportunity if a ball hits the ground.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SD has several things going for them. A week of rest, an extra week of prep, a good QB, and home field on a national stage. Denver has a lights out defense, a solid running game, and a mistake free passing game.

While SD won a game against OAK, it was closer than a game against OAK should be. On the other hand, they played tough against PITT, and respectable against BAL in two losses. While they are injured and not playing great football, they look to me like a team that can jump up at any moment and reassert themselves. They have good players all over the team that just don't seem to playing to their potential.

Denver, on the other hand, has beaten good teams in CIN, DAL, and NE, while brushing off CLE and OAK. If anyone wants to question how good DAL and NE are, it is in part due to their losses against DEN. CIN looks like a very good team, and Denver won a game that either would have been a TD reception by the intended receiver or (because it was tipped) a TD reception by a heads up player.

I don't believe in "trap" games. If there is such a concept, it is a fan concept and not a coaching one. Any coach that thinks that any game can be overlooked deserves to lose every game he plays. McDaniels is not the kind of coach to overlook a team. He and DC Nolan know the stakes; this is a division game. So does SD, and I fully expect a team like SD (with their backs against the wall in the AFC West race) to come out swinging. In other words, expect SD to play like SD, and not like how they've played so far.

LT hasn't been LT, but count him out at your peril. Merriman may be hurt and weakened, but if he ever brings his "A game", this is the time. If SD loses this game, they'll probably have to win out the season to get a shot at a playoff spot.

And Denver is done with silencing critics. Those who still think the Broncos are a 3-13 team have been exposed, and only make themselves look more foolish for making excuses for Denver's opponents. Denver is now playing for a good seeding in the post season, and that makes this week's game the most important game they've played so far.

I think Denver is a different team from last year, from top to bottom. We have a QB that doesn't give away games, we have a defense that shuts down anything in their path, and we have a coaching staff that gets the best out of their players week in and out. SD is also different. They were an 8-8 team last year, but cracks seem to be developing further. If SD is going to make a run at glory, this is the game of the season.

For me, I'll take Denver. The match-ups seem to favor Denver strongly, but I won't pick Denver to win big quite yet. I expect a fully loaded and prepared SD team for Monday Night Football, and I expect that there will be big plays both ways. I expect a great game that may overshadow the Saints / Giants game in terms of good play. I expect a memorable game.

Most of all, I expect 6-0 going into the bye.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I knew Denver would be a better team this year. I predicted an 8-8 record, but wrote that Denver would play much better, win or lose. I figured Denver would beat Cincy and CLE, and figured we should win one or two against OAK (nice to beat OAK in OAK). DAL was a toss-up to me during the offseason, but I thought we had a fair shot. Before the season, NE would have been a loss in my book. By the time the game came up, I called it "too close to call". I was right - the game went into overtime.

It is past time to look at what I think of the games going forward, so here it is.

SD - In the reloading season I would have called this 50/50. I think we win in SD.

BAL - Before the season - loss. Now, tough call.

PITT - Before the season - loss to SB champs. Now - win (we can exploit that OL).

WAS - Before - toss up; leans win. Now - win.

SD - Likely win.

NYG - We might be able to go toe to toe. If we do, we are (gasp!) SB contenders. For now, let's say a potential loss.

KC - Win

INDY - Along with NYG, our toughest game on the schedule.

OAK - I'm really trying hard not to laugh out loud.

PHI - This could be a tougher game than we expect.

KC - If we are in the playoffs, we might rest players at this point.

I'll say that at this point our basement should be 10 to 11 games, with 11 to 12 likely. 13 (are you listening Mike Clark?) is a real possibility. More importantly, a post season spot is probable.

Forget about "power rankings" for a moment, and consider the official rankings. According to the NFL's rankings (based on games won and official tie breaks), this is how the top six teams rank -

OFFICIAL NFL TEAM RANKS

1) Your Denver Broncos

2) Colts

3) Vikings

4) Saints

5) Giants

6) Bengals

We've beat number 6, and we still have number 5 and number 2 to go. (By the way, 9-PHI, 10-BAL, 11-DAL, 12-NE, 14 PITT).

We've played, and have left to play, teams in the top half of the League right now. Any wins we get are well-deserved, and every game is good preparation for the post season. Playoffs? PLAYOFFS? That's right Mora, I said it. Denver is going to the playoffs this year. McDaniels is not a coach that allows late season collapses. I'm calling it. Denver qualifies.

Poll

Denver...

Doesn't make playoffs

47 votes

In as a wild card or division champion

544 votes

Along with another AFC team, gets a bye in the WC round

584 votes

1175 votes | Poll has closed

What's Right with the San Diego Chargers?

John (obviousman) — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 12:41:21 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Hines Ward, left, can't come up with the ball as San Diego Chargers safety Eric Weddle defends in the second half of the NFL football game in Pittsburgh, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009. The Steelers won 38-28. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

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Time to get positive people. We can't sit around for the next two weeks talking about firing Norv Turner and A.J. Smith. It's not going to happen mid-season and without a horrible season it's not going to happen period.

Thanks to some people responding calmly to yesterday's post, I have some good ideas as far as what San Diego Chargers fans have to be happy about and should be looking forward to in the future. So wipe that frown off your face, get ready to support your team again and check out the entire list after the jump.

		Passing									Rushing					Sacks
	G	Rating	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	INT	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Sack	YdsL
2009 - Philip Rivers	4	90.6	88	150	58.7	1245	311.3	8.3	6	3	7	15	3.8	2.1	1	10	63

Philip Rivers - 2nd in the league in passing yards, 5th in pass attempts per game and 12th in QB rating. Is it a performance as good as 2008's? Not yet. However, Philip is facing possibly the most difficult situations of any starting QB in the league on a weekly basis.

The second time he got on the field on Sunday, the team was down by 14 points and had already shown that they were not going to be able to stop the Steelers offense. If Norv said to Philip "You have to throw every down and we need to score a touchdown on every possession", it would've been the truth. And although I've encouraged the Chargers to be a pass-first offense, I'm smart enough to know that the team needs a semblance of a running attack and a defense that can at least slow down the opposing offense.

Those things considered, Philip Rivers has been on fire. He's gotten a third of his passing yards and half of his passing TDs in the fourth quarter. He lead the Chargers to wins in Oakland and against Miami with a tattered offensive line that didn't help the weak running attack. If the rest of the team can improve, and take pressure of Rivers to win every game, Philip will benefit from this time and grow into an even greater QB than he already was. If they can't, he'll still fight to get this team to the playoffs.

		Rushing	Receiving
2009 - LaDainian Tomlinson	2	20	70	35	3.5	13	1	2	0	0	0	1	0

Rushing Receiving

G Rush Yds Y/G Avg Lng TD Rec Yds Y/G Avg Lng TD

2009 - LaDainian Tomlinson 2 20 70 35 3.5 13 1 2 0 0 0 1 0

LaDainian Tomlinson - I know, I know. This list is looking awfully familiar. The fact of the matter is, when LT has gotten the ball he has looked better than he did in 2008. His 3.5 YPC is a testament to that. An improvement in the defense, so the offense doesn't have to play catch-up, would get LT more carries and hopefully more 2009 success.

When you're looking for silver linings, having LT look like a solid RB again is one you can certainly focus on. He had his injury, he took time off, and now he has at least 12 more games ahead of him where he could become a star again.

Health - Not only do the Chargers have a bye next week, but the following week is a Monday night game in San Diego. That is two full weeks (14 days) without a football game and without having to travel. In NFL terms, that's ages. Players that have been struggling with minor injuries, such as Antwan Applewhite, Travis Johnson, Shawne Merriman, Louis Vasquez and LaDainian Tomlinson, should be able to get to 100% or very close to it by time the Monday night game rolls around. That should help, even incrementally, with stopping the run on defense and getting the running game going on offense.

Schedule - The Chargers opponents over the first 4 weeks of the season are currently 7-9. Their upcoming opponents are 22-25 through Week 4. With four games against teams that are currently 0-4, there should be a handful of easy victories for the Bolts during the season that could get momentum on their side.

San Diego faces each of their division opponents (5-7 combined) in the three weeks following next week's bye. As bad I felt about the Chargers following Sunday's game, a 5-2 record heading into the New York Giants game would certainly make me feel better about the Bolts' chances at winning the division and being successful in the playoffs. Even if the Chargers lose in New York, then lose to the Philadelphia Eagles the following week in San Diego, that would put them at 5-4 to face the weak remainder of their schedule (@DEN, KC, @CLE, @DAL, CIN, @TEN, WSH). That sounds like at least 10-6 to me.

There are differences between the Denver Broncos and Chargers, but perhaps the biggest difference is that the Broncos have faced the weak part of their schedule already (first 4 opponents: 6-10 combined record). Where the Chargers' remaining schedule is under .500, the Broncos' remaining schedule is currently 25-22 and includes games against the Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Giants and Colts. The Chargers have only one game left against a team that currently has 3 or more wins and is not the Bengals or Broncos (it's the Giants). The Broncos have four.

There will be plenty of opportunities for the Bolts to beat up on lesser opponents and gain momentum, and there should be a legitimate chance to catch and pass the Broncos for the AFC West Championship.

Defense - Some of my favorite times watching the Chargers have been watching players grow and get better. Luis Castillo, Shawne Merriman, even Stephen Cooper had talent to begin with but seemed to get better with each game. I know a lot of Bolts fans who feel the same way, but with the current team is seems we've lost some of that love. A young, developing player that could be great if he was able to start for a full season and gain some experience is looked at as somebody who is taking the spot of a veteran free agent who could be "the final piece of the puzzle".

I'm going back to watching the young defensive guys get better. The Chargers second-half schedule is easy, and if these guys are getting better now the team will be set up to gain a ton of momentum heading into the playoffs. Here are the guys that I'm enjoying watching, as they sometimes stumble but always get back up and continue to grow:

Ogemdi Nwagbuo - Future star? Maybe, maybe not. One thing is for sure, the kid has been better than expected. He's the reason Ian Scott was cut and eventually he could be the reason Luis Castillo goes back to being single-teamed. It's ridiculous to try to compare him to Jamal Williams at this point, but if he can continue to grow and then provide 3/4 of J-Will's production for the final quarter of the season that would make the Bolts defense much more solid heading into January. What I like from him is that he's hungry. Now he just needs to stay healthy.
Vaughn Martin - Kindof the same deal. Martin has seen more time than he expected to due to the injuries to Ryon Bingham, Williams, Jacques Cesaire and Travis Johnson. While he hasn't been a dominating force, he has looked like he fits in. Just like Nwagbuo, the coaching staff raves about Martin's work ethic and desire to get better quickly. These are the types of guys that, given playing time, it "clicks" for them in the second half of the season and they start playing like stars.
Antoine Cason - As Antonio Cromartie has seemingly regressed, Cason has gotten better. There is now talk out of Chargers camp, not just from the fans, that the team is considering moving him up to starting CB and Cromartie back to the nickelback spot. I hope it happens, because every time I see Cason he seems to be getting better (the missed assignment in Baltimore excluded). I also think it'd be fun to send Cromartie on a blitz from the nickel spot, with his great speed, long arms and soft hands.
Larry English - As I said yesterday, I'm currently disappointed in this pick. Everyone was initially excited because the kid has potential, but we shouldn't have forgotten that there's still a big hole behind LT. Debating the pick gets us nowhere though. English has been getting better, little by little. He looked like a star against the Dolphins, but doesn't seem to be very effective when the Chargers put him as a DE as they did most of the night in Pittsburgh. The more effective he can get rushing the passer from the OLB spot, the more the defense will be able to play that way.
Eric Weddle - I know, it's his second year as the starter and his third with the team. He's still only 24 and could potentially be in the Chargers secondary for another decade. I've said it before, my philosophy is that I'm happy as long as I see progress being made. Not only is Weddle now a very good FS, but I see constant progress out of him. Whether it's in trying to lay a big hit, his coverage (superb) or even blitzing the QB occasionally. You can tell by watching him every week that Weddle works at his craft and will be better at the end of the season than he is right now.
Shawne Merriman - This one isn't progress in terms of talent, it's in terms of health. I get excited when Merriman is on the field because I see him getting better. I see him getting more pressure on the QB. I see the offense taking notice when he's on the field again. I don't think he'll be in "game shape" until the second half of the season. Which isn't to say he's out of shape, but I think a lot of time spent in the weight room and not a lot spent on the field has made him stronger but less flexible. Flexibility is key for a pass-rusher. Also, his knee is still not 100% and now his groin is bothering him. The bye week came at just the right time for him though. I'm expecting at least 5 sacks in the last 8 games of the season from him, and if English progresses as well it could equal an actual Chargers pass-rush for the playoffs. Wouldn't that be nice?

So there you have it, kids. Will the Chargers run over the entire league and be the clear-cut favorite to win the Super Bowl all season? Nope, but in a way we get the best of both worlds. A good team that should be able to make the playoffs if they at least maintain their current level of play (which is way beneath their potential), and a bunch of young guys that should make the team get better as the season goes along. Sounds fun to me.

What's Wrong with the San Diego Chargers?

John (obviousman) — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 19:33:53 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

2 months ago: San Diego Chargers coach Norv Turner grimaces as a pass interference call was made on his team in the first quarter of the NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Pittsburgh, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009. (AP AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

Browse more photos »

Lets not fool ourselves. This team may be 2-2, and their 2 losses may have come against the Super Bowl Champions and AFC runner-up from 2008, but there are major problems. The Chargers defeated the Miami Dolphins because Chad Henne was not able to take advantage of the holes in the defense. Same issue in Oakland. The Bolts have yet to have a good game, where they took control at the coin toss and never made the fans worry.

In place of a lopsided Bolts & Dolts, this week I've decided to look at all of the things that are going wrong for the San Diego Chargers. The full list, along with a ton of stats to help me seem like less or a crazy person, after the jump.

Philip Rivers - That shocked you a bit, didn't it? I'm investigating everybody who may be a part of this, and Rivers fits into that category. The offense, including Philip, has been unable to get any sort of rhythm going before late in the game. The Chargers are forced to rely on big plays to score. Teams like the Steelers have figured this out, and will play Cover 2 or Cover 3 defense until the Chargers show the ability to move the chains.

Although Rivers has a QB rating of 110.4 in the first quarter this season, he has only one first half touchdown on the season. ONE! He predictably has a good 4th quarter QB rating as well (109.3), but has been very mediocre in the two middle quarters of the game (76.8 in 2nd, 74.8 in 3rd). When Philip is going bad, he gets happy feet and starts forcing the ball to Antonio Gates. His atrocious performance in 3rd & long (21.7 rating) and with goal to go (39.6 rating on 1st/2nd & goal) have contributed to the offense's troubles.

I'm not saying Rivers isn't a great QB, he is. I just wish he didn't have to spend every 4th quarter competing against the clock and trying to make the comeback of the century. He could save himself some trouble if he got it done with the same level of consistency before the 4th quarter. I'm sure a solid running game would help.

Norv Turner - This one is a tad less shocking. I'll say what I've been saying all along. The only way Norv loses his job after this season is if the Chargers do not win a playoff game. Initially, that seemed like a lock. Now, two games behind the Broncos with no defense in sight, it's looking like it may not happen. That being said, it's tough to keep from dreaming about bringing in a coach that would provide the same level of toughness that the Marty Schottenheimer teams had.

I won't criticize Norv as an Offensive Coordinator. As far as I know, he one of the best OCs of all time. Perhaps his play-calling is solid and just not being executed. However, I want to look into Norv as a Head Coach. I don't expect a HC to do anything besides motivate the team and make them tougher. Or perhaps teach the team how to be smart and/or dirty.

When you bring in a coach like Bill Cowher or Bill Parcells, it seems the players want to rip out the other team's throat on every play. As much as I've always been along for the Norv Turner ride, I don't see any of that intensity out of his players. Maybe it's the practice he runs, maybe it's the fact that he doesn't seem to make speeches to his team until December, maybe it's a simple case of the players never buying in completely because a lot of them remember having success with Marty and know that even with a good season their HC could be gone.

This used to be a bruising team. Shawne Merriman was knocking guys out of games, the Offensive Line was pushing everyone back and Lorenzo Neal was looking for somebody to lay out on every play. Similar to Norv's style of coordinating, which is based on technique and finesse, the 2009 Chargers team seem to have taken on the belief that they'll win the game because they're supposed to be more talented. Then, when they're getting punched in the mouth by every team they face, they end up looking foolish. Although this team may believe they're "prepared" for the scheme that's coming at them, they are not prepared to be pushed around on nearly every play. That goes for the offensive and defensive lines, as well as the LBs. And that should be blamed on the Head Coach.

LaDainian Tomlinson - Here's a fun stat: the Chargers have rushed for 215 yards as a team through four games while allowing 604 rushing yards. Not only do the Bolts not have any 100 yard rushing games to this point (that's the entire team), they don't even have a running back on the roster that has 100 rushing yards for the season. Anyone else still think this is a Super Bowl caliber team?

Another awful stat: Tomlinson leads the Chargers with an average of 10 carries per game. Even though he's ended the last two seasons on the sidelines, LT swears he's still a superstar and still the best running back in football. I have been saying since before the first preseason game that I was worried LT was turning into Edgerrin James. Now, I'm almost sure of it. His 2.1 YPC against the Steelers (longest run: 5 yards) is pretty much what I'm expecting out of him at this point. There will be no more 40+ yard runs and not more juking defenders out of their shoes. If the Chargers had a legitimate RB to start ahead of him, he could be a valuable change-up and a weapon for the playoffs. Instead, the Chargers will be similar to the 2008 Arizona Cardinals and will try to win every game by outscoring the opponent through the air.

Darren Sproles - Let me clear one thing up. I'm not blaming Rivers or Tomlinson or Sproles for their performance. I'm just saying perhaps their performance is part of the reason the Chargers are struggling to win games.

It's not Sproles' fault that he got paid a truckload of money and was asking to be a #2 RB behind an injury-prone RB. That's on AJ Smith. However, Darren's 2.4 YPC has not done much to help get the offense into a rhythm. Perhaps the pundits were right when they were predicting the Chargers to take a RB in the first round of the draft. Beanie Wells (4.4 YPC) and Donald Brown (3.5 YPC) are looking like they'd fit in nicely in San Diego.

Antonio Cromartie - I don't know what it is so I won't speculate. I'll just say that Cro is still not living up to his big 2007 season. Not only does he not deserve to be in the same conversation as Quentin Jammer at this point, I think the Chargers might have more success with Antoine Cason being the starter.

Ron Rivera - Oh boy, what an improvement over 2008! All I heard all off-season was that the blitz was going to be epic and the Chargers were practicing intercepting the ball and scoring TDs. Best defense ever? It was on it's way. A quick comparison through Week 4:

	2008	2009
Pts Allowed	112	102
Interceptions	4	4
Sacks	11	6
Fum. Rec.	3	2

Ron Rivera > Ted Cottrell? Not so fast. The lack of a pass rush that Chargers fans blame for the horrible defense under Cottrell in 2008 has gotten worse. Larry English has been average at best and nobody has seemed the least bit surprised or thrown off by Rivera's "creative blitzes".

A.J. Smith - We bought in. We drank the Kool-Aid. We ignored the aging RB who couldn't stay healthy, and the undersized return man getting paid $6 million to play behind him. We ignored the aging DT and the lack of experienced depth behind him. We were certain that Jacob Hester's new "bulk" would turn him into the next great Chargers FB. Not only did we buy in, A.J. Smith bought in as well.

Consider this my first major criticism of A.J. Smith. The team has been poisoned by poor coaching and there's no longer depth behind the aging veterans when they go down with injuries. If he can swing a trade in the next couple of days for someone like Shaun Rogers, it'll give me more hope. Until then, I will continue to look at the lack of foresight in building this roster (the Hester pick is starting to look like a big mistake, considering how much they gave up to get him) and grumble.

For the record, I think Mike Holmgren would want to coach the Chargers when he returns next season and I'd be okay with that. I'd also take Cowher, Shanahan or even Dungy (risky because he loves the 4-3 Cover 2). The key to any potential Chargers hire, for me, has become "Can they get Wade Phillips back?" That should show you where my confidence in Ron Rivera is at currently.

Game Preview: San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

John (obviousman) — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 23:00:25 -0000

Time for the weekly enlightenment breakdown. In reality, this is one of those games where San Diego Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers fans alike should throw the stats out the window. These teams played two evenly-matched games last year that Pittsburgh won because they had that extra oomph. Their offensive line and running game gave them the advantage, and Roethlisberger made enough of those "Nobody can sack this guy!" plays to kill any Chargers comebacks.

With that in mind.....I like stats. The most important one to start with is weather. Sunday night's forecast is looking like it'll be around 45-50 degrees with clear skies. Exactly what the Bolts and their fans were hoping for. Now, lets take a look at the teams and see who will have the advantages for this game.

When the Steelers Have the Ball

If you were to ask me to rate the Chargers' defense thus far on a scale from Poor to Great, I'd probably say it was average. I'd be right. Out of 32 NFL teams, the boys in blue rank 14th in yards allowed and 19th in points allowed per game. In a rare twist from years past, it's actually the pass defense (8th) and now the run defense (26th) that is keeping the team competitive without the football. While this seems to play right into the Steelers' philosophy, Willie Parker will be slowed by a turf toe injury that could certainly benefit the Bolts this week.

Last season, with a healthy Jamal Williams at DT, Willie Parker ran for 261 on 52 carries (5.0 YPC) in two games against the Chargers. This season, without JW in the center of the line it could've been worse. However, after watching LT in 2008 we're all very familiar with the effects of turf toe on a running back. I'm not saying it'll be a piece of cake, but the chances of the Chargers forcing Pittsburgh to throw the ball to win the game are greatly increased by that injured toe.

Through the first three weeks of the season, Pittsburgh has the league's 12th best offense. Their rushing game, with Willie Parker, ranks 27th (it was ranked 23rd in 2008) and their passing game has had to try to carry the load (8th). Although Ben Roethlisberger has two Super Bowl victories under his belt, this is not a team that wants to get into an shootout through the air with anybody. Especially not against the Chargers. However, with teams stopping the run and being able to score on their defense late, the Steelers have fallen to 1-2. Their only victory came against the 0-3 Tennessee Titans, who are so anemic offensively that they only scored 10 points even after Roethlisberger threw 2 interceptions.

The game plan is simple. Stop the run, force Ben to pass. Whether he's throwing into a zone or throwing against man-defense with a decent pass-rush doesn't matter at this point. What matters is step one. Start at step one: Stop the Run. With an rushing offense ranked 27th and missing their best RB, that should seem easy. However, Pittsburgh's running game wasn't much better last year when Willie Parker turned into Walter Payton against the Bolts. It's important that they keep their focus, and it's important for Ogemdi Nwagbuo to not get pushed backwards.

Advantage: Chargers. I came close to saying tie, but I just can't see Parker being effective on Sunday night. Although Pittsburgh ranks 8th in terms of offensive yardage, they rank 25th in terms of offensive points scored per game. Nobody on the team not named Ben Roethlisberger has a rushing TD yet. Santonio Holmes has disappeared since his big game against the Tennessee Titans on opening night. This is a sputtering offense that seems to be heading backwards while the Chargers defense looks to me to be improving. Most importantly, the Chargers' weakness (rush defense) is also the Steelers' weakness (they can't run). Roethlisberger will be forced to throw against Quentin Jammer, Antonio Cromartie, Antoine Cason and Eric Weddle, which presents lots of opportunities for turnovers and puts the Chargers biggest strength in charge of determining the game's outcome. I can live with that.

When the Chargers Have the Ball

Pittsburgh's 2009 team is not too different from their 2008 team. The roster and coaching staff is generally left in tact. The difference is that the defense, without Troy Polamalu or much of a pass rush (14th in sacks), has not been able to carry them to victory. Currently they rank 8th in total defensive yards given up (25th in points allowed per game), 15th against the pass and 6th at stopping the run. Weakness (inability to stop the pass), meet strength (Philip Rivers).

The Chargers' offense is ranked 8th overall after the first 3 weeks of the season, ranked 2nd in throwing the ball and 31st in running it. Yes, Bolts fans, the Chargers running game is only slightly better than the 32nd ranked Arizona Cardinals. However, those Cardinals are the NFC Champions and did come one amazing Santonio Holmes TD catch away from winning the Super Bowl in 2008. So that's promising I suppose.

Advantage: Chargers. First, the bad news. This is still drawing parallels to the 2008 Steelers team that went 2-0 against the Chargers in Pittsburgh. Those Steelers ranked 17th against the pass and 20th in points allowed per game. The good news is that they will be missing the big playmaker that always seemed to end the comeback drive (Polamalu). Since Troy has gone down, the Steelers have lost to Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer. You know Philip Rivers wants to be on that list of QBs to have recently knocked off the Super Bowl Champions.

I don't think William Gay and Deshea Townsend (both 5'10") are going to be able to cover Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee. I don't think the Steelers have one guy who can cover Antonio Gates and another guy to cover LaDainian Tomlinson and/or Darren Sproles. If the offensive line can keep the Pittsburgh pass-rush in check, this should be another great day for Rivers.

Final Analysis

Here's where things are going to get gloomy again. The Pittsburgh Steelers went 8-2 at home in 2008. Their stadium sells out years in advance and their fanbase is one of the most dedicated in football. They have a supreme home field advantage. Although their 2009 record is 1-2, they're still undefeated (1-0) at home. Even more shocking is that the Chargers have played against the Steelers in Pittsburgh 16 times in the last 40 years or so, and have never won a regular season game there. The Bolts are 0-13 when playing in the Steel City during the season, 2-14 all time (HT: Derwood13). Not only will the Chargers have to overcome the Steelers' team (which looks entirely possible), they have to overcome the crowd (not as easy).

For me, this game rests on the shoulders of Marcus McNeill. Although I criticized him last week, I was told his flu was quite severe and that he lost a lot of weight during the week leading up to the game. If he's healthy again, and can handle James Harrison, I feel like the Chargers cannot lose. If Harrison is causing all sorts of problems for Rivers, it's going to be hard to move the ball downfield and Norv will have to rely on the big passing plays again (always a risky gameplan).