SB Nation - Brett Kern

Broncos Thoughts and Musings - Kansas City Week

Emmett Smith — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

22 days ago: Denver Broncos defensive end Elvis Dumervil (92) reacts after sacking New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Denver, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009. Denver won 26-6. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

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Following the burden of four losses, and continuing through the lighter job of a Thanksgiving turkey-down being visited on the NY Giants, I've been busy in the film room. The Broncos had gone through a hard stretch of the season and I wanted to know why: What changed? What made them goats after weeks of success? The game film was the only place to find out.

Of course, film room is a slight exaggeration. It's also the TV room, the reading room, the computer room and the filing room. In my case, it holds a large table that holds a lot of equipment, including my phones, router, speakers, tower (yes, I was raised PC) and a 26-inch monitor that lets me work in comfort. I worked in a padded brown leather office chair and a small table for the keyboard. I'd go wireless, but the keyboard is a special ergonomic model that I got used to and can't stop using. Maybe Microsoft will awaken and make a wireless version of this one, but so far, no joy. You can step outside the french doors that lead from the room onto my deck and watch the molten brass of the autumn sun sliding down into the ocean almost every night and that's a big plus. I miss the mountains, but that view doesn't seem to get old.

It's the only room that I have privacy in, other than a bedroom, but when I'm watching this much film, it's definitely a film room, so I'll use that term. The TV will have a DVD or a Tivo going that's relevant and the computer can be running two more games at once if I need to make some comparisons. I indulged in a quad core, 64-bit with a suitably large HD and an even larger external backup drive that saves everything, everyday. If I'm not on the computer, I also put in a leather recliner for the TV. Life is not hard...anyway you slice it, I've had a lot of time to watch the Broncos recently. The first few days of that were sheer torture, but it suddenly got much easier on Thursday last. It's funny how you enjoy breaking down film more when your team is winning.

I spent a lot of time watching each of the losses and trying to comprehend exactly why, in terms of their on-field play, they were losing. It was a helpful exercise. The losses showed exactly why we were struggling and the victory last week showed equally well what happens when you rectify those same errors. Losing is usually about errors -- sometimes you just are beaten by a better team, but most of the time you open the door and usher them into the victory circle. Jimmy Johnson is a complicated man but he nailed it when he pointed out that you only have to beat about 10 teams in the NFL. The others will create the victory for you if you just stay around. That's exactly what Denver was doing.

The entire breakdown is fiendishly long and I won't bore you with all of it. I'll pull bits and pieces off of it as the next few weeks move along. I can say this -- everyone agrees that there are certain basic principles that are essential to winning. Discipline is essential. Gap control is essential. Success in the trenches is essential. Mental errors are the bane of the football existence. If you just apply those to the losses, you'll find that nearly every failure was created not by the opponent, but by the Broncos.

For those who have asked me, yes, I was badly disappointed in the work of the referees during some of the games. They missed calls, called phantom infractions and generally weren't as good as they have to be, but the real culprit was gazing implacably out of the mirrors in the locker room when the Broncos came back in from the games. Here are a few observations to get us started, in no particular order.

Tight Spots

It didn't take a lot of film work to notice exactly why the Broncos drafted Richard Quinn earlier this year. Josh McDaniels requires a talented blocking tight end and long-time TE Daniel Graham showed up on film as having difficulty at holding the edge on passing downs. While Quinn is still struggling to master the speed of the NFL and the intricacies of the complex Broncos offense, he was the highest-rated blocking TE at this year's Combine. He'll have to step up greatly to fulfill the Broncos' faith in him, taking him as the last pick in the 2nd round of the 2009 Draft, but it's still fair to say that Graham was struggling during the losses. He'd look like an All-Pro on one, then disappear on the next.

About Quinn - the Broncos drafted off of a 'short board' this year, listing only those players that they felt would fit their system effectively. That has led to complaints by the Mile High community regarding where, exactly, they made their choices, but it explains a lot. Drafting a player that they didn't see in their system makes far less sense than using a 2nd-round pick on a player who was rated in the late-2nd to the 4th round. Why Quinn? Because during the losses, Daniel Graham made me wonder if he was getting older. Of course, after last Thursday, I'm not as concerned with that problem. He just hadn't played his best for a few games.

When Graham is on, he's one of the best. Blocking, chipping, running routes and catching, Graham is a tremendous advantage for Denver. When he fails, though, especially since Tyler Polumbus was struggling, it can make for a long game for both the run and the pass.

Graham has an issue with his hand placement. I've mentioned this previously on a thread, but he has a tendency to grab at the outermost aspect of the shoulders of the jersey. Technically, it IS holding, the way he uses it. Keep in mind, by the way, that his placement is legal as long as he works inside from it. Unfortunately, Graham has been finishing plays with a hip-twist to the side that takes down his player with a judo-like throw. He seems to do this a great deal - some refs call it, some don't, but he has to learn a better hand placement or we will have that issue regularly. It's a lot of fun to watch, but is still illegal. We need his play, though - he's still one of the best, all-around, and that's a huge plus.

Lots of fans including myself have awaited two things - a more balanced attack and better usage of Tony Scheffler. A big reason the latter didn't happen was that the blocking wasn't good enough for him to be used as a receiver more often. As the blocking improved, magically, Scheffler got free and started to create matchup troubles for NY.

It all starts with blocking. The trenches are where the games are won.

Being Offensive

Speaking of blocking, watching film over the past week has opened my eyes to the exact nature of the Broncos' decline on offense. I'd like to state, for the record, that I more or less expected to see problems that could be traced to many players and situations, but particularly to issues with the blocking and to the offensive line. I was still stunned to see how far those problems on the O-Line extended, though. Here are a couple of examples from the 1st quarter of the Pittsburgh game that might serve to clarify the issue. They were good illustrations of what we are dealing with.

The right side of the offensive line, except for the continuing excellence of Chris Kuper, has been a huge problem during the losses. Ryan Harris has been injured and Tyler Polumbus hasn't been able to step up fully in his absence until the Giants game. Daniel Graham seemed to be struggling to finish his blocks. In addition, I grew convinced that Russ Hochstein isn't the answer at guard before he played well on Thanksgiving and confounded me. The following two plays were a good indication of the problems as they stood. The plays ran back-to-back.

In the first one, Denver is lined up on offense with 5 down lineman and 4 receivers; Brandon Marshall is in the right slot. His safety, the man covering Marshall, releases to penetrate, going after Orton. Orton sees him and chooses his receiver quickly, accurately gunning it to Brandon. Marshall goes over the middle and makes the reception. However -- the safety ran square into Polumbus who missed the speed rush, letting the safety move easily past before he hurried Orton. The pass is still complete, but Polumbus got taken.

An illustration of just how bad the blocking had become came next, on a power running play Denver used toward to the end of the 1st quarter. The Broncos lined up the usual 5 OL, with Hochstein outside of Polumbus on the right side of the line and Graham on the outside of him to the right. Hochstein was essentially playing as an extra blocking lineman, as was Graham. This wasn't the kind of play that is designed to fool anyone: it was a simple, power run formation. It looked good, right up until the ball was snapped.

At the snap, Hochstein fired out of his stance and toward an OLB on the right as Orton took the snap and handed the ball to Knowshon Moreno. Unfortunately for Russ, his man simply stepped back and to the side. Hochstein went after him, and the end of the play saw him still literally chasing around behind the player who was not, happily, much in the play. Polumbus was keyed on James Farrior, ILB, who brushed him aside as you might a small child, knifing into the backfield. Polumbus fell flat on his face, Farrior reached Moreno in the backfield, almost untouched, and the play went for a loss of three.

There are a couple of obvious things to mention. I've rarely, if ever, seen a power run to the right that left two of our right-side lineman grasping at air, having failed to engage anyone at all that they were supposed to block. Polumbus knelt there on the ground and pounded it with his fist, but that's no substitute for doing your job. This wasn't the only play that left me leery of Hochstein, by the way - it seemed unfortunately obvious why he's been a backup for most of his career. In my own view, I'm sad to say that Tyler hadn't played well enough to even keep him as a backup in the offseason unless he improved rapidly. Of course, this changed greatly against the Giants and he had a very good game. That's been a pattern -- good O-Line play will win you games. Lacking it is an invitation to a loss. What's new?

A third example involved Ben Hamilton. Ben looked like a different player on the recent film. It's almost as if someone stole him in the night and left a changeling in his place, one who fooled everyone into believing that he's Ben. How bad was it? In the same quarter listed above, earlier on, the Broncos ran off-guard to the right. Hamilton was tasked with taking up a linebacker on the play. He easily got to the second level, made contact - and quit. He just stopped and let the player disengage. His man promptly ran over, following the run, and tackled Correll Buckhalter. Hamilton was immediately pulled for one play, with Hochstein taking his place. Unfortunately, Russ wasn't an improvement and Hamilton returned for the next play after, having received some loving personal instruction and attention from Rick Dennison. I've never known Hamilton to quit on plays before this season - something is obviously going on with him.

Think about it. Orton is hit on the first play. He made the completion anyway (Orton looked very good in that half) but it was touch and go whether he could get the pass off accurately within that narrow window. On the next play, Moreno never had a chance - Farrior had a perfect shot at him. On the third play, Buckhalter would have had a first down if Hamilton just finishes the play. Instead, the Steelers killed that drive. That was a pattern during the losses. Individuals didn't play well and the team couldn't get anything going.

I'm not claiming for a moment that we don't have other issues, and I'm going to talk about others over the next few weeks. The defense was also a problem, communication between Orton and the receivers left some points on the field, and there were plenty of other things to work on. It's just that the degree of problems with the offensive line were killing drive after drive, even when you had to look carefully to see why that's true. I had to run the plays over and over to spot every player, but once I did, the crux of the matter was too obvious to miss.

I also saw that plenty of people - far too many - made mental errors at critical times. To be honest, it's the NFL - any time is a critical time. A single mistake wipes out a 40-yard gain - is that critical? It is to me. The difference in the Giants game? For what it's worth, I think that it's not that they didn't make those errors - they still did. It was that once they had, they got it back on track and didn't keep on making them, while the Giants did. If they can keep that kind of aggressive spirit and increase their effective discipline, the Broncos can still compete in the playoffs.

Not-so Special Teams

In watching film, a pattern emerged that had hovered just at the edge of my consciousness. I've been listening to and reading about how the special teams play has been a problem and I fully agree. If you look at the overall results it's hard not to be concerned about this area of the Broncos. Many of the members had problems with bringing ST coach Mike Priefer on board, and I tend to agree. But the problem here, even so, can easily be deceiving. A pattern came to light that has no simple solution.

It's this: Our opponent gets the ball. We stop their drive, but they make it to about mid-field. They punt, and their punter is good at finding that 'coffin corner', pinning us back in our end of the field. Sure, you hope that Eddie Royal can break a few, but let's be real - Eddie is getting the ball with two players or more in his face. He's in a tight area, with defenders reaching him under the punt. We get pinned in the 10-20 if he catches the ball, maybe the 23 or so. It's on the 20 if it rolls into the end zone. We're looking at another long, tiring drive - if we're successful. If not, we're punting and the opposing team gets it at about the 30-to-40 yard line. then we do it all over again until the D is tired and/or we get scored on. I used to notice this with Shanahan's last few teams as well. It's a terrible habit to get into, since it assures that you will have the maximum problems scoring and will give the easiest time to the opponent.

And then came the Giants game and it all changed back, as mysteriously as it arrived. The Broncos suddenly woke up from an autumn nap, smelled the air and strapped on their helmets. They stopped them at their end of the field, created a little more room to run back punts and boomed punts that stuck the Giants back in their end of the field. Everything was different. In the end, the starting field position was Den: 30.20, NYG: 21.30 according to StatMaster TJ (Thanks for the aid, Your Dudeness). Seeing that showed why the difference was so stark.

If we look more at the starting field position, we really did get clobbered by BAL and PIT. After that, it was more about errors. Consider our starting field position over the past 5 weeks:

Week 8, Baltimore: 20.55

Week 9, Pittsburgh: 21.64

Week 10, Washington: 27.91

Week 11, San Diego: 29.60

Week 12, New York: 30.20

The Washington game, to me, was a matter of mistakes and the issue of Chris Simms - if we had Orton, I still think that we would have won, even with a poor performance by the D. Our field position was not that bad and we did score well. the lack of defensive discipline may have tipped the game in their favor. SD was a meltdown. Error compounding error, awful work by Simms, who will not return, Orton trying to play lame. We had decent position and lost it anyway.

Yet, with about the same position, we pounded on NYG. The difference was that we put together a comprehensive, complementary football game, with all sections doing "A" work. That's hard to beat. It sounds awfully simplistic, but this time, the solution was simple. Stop making egregious errors that kill drives or sustain the opponents' drives. If a mistake happens, overcome it with better play. Many times, how we responded to errors determined whether or not we won any given battle.

Throwdown, Elvis Style

Daniel Graham wasn't the only Broncos who's been engaged in throwdowns recently: What to make of Elvis Dumervil? With 5 games to go in the season, he's accumulated a career high and NFL-leading 14 sacks. Will the Broncos pay to keep him around? Count on it. I don't know any more than you about how they will deal with the uncapped year and the new CBA beyond that, but Doom will be a Bronco in 2010. Dumervil is already sixth all-time in the NFL in third-down sacks in a season. The record is held by San Francisco's Tim Harris, who had 11 third-down sacks in 1992 and Doom has 5 more games to pad that stat. When he finds the QB on third down, it does more than just give us back the ball. It changes the way the game flows. How will they pay him? Again - that's what Brian Xanders does. I've got a lot of faith in him. Gosh, why do you want a GM with a lot of cap experience? I couldn't believe it when I heard that in the offseason. The cap is a defender who will always be waiting to trip you up, year 'round.

When Doom is getting his sacks on any down the Broncos are almost impossible to beat. That's because when he's bringing the QB down, It also means that everyone else has tied up their guys or is bringing their own pressure. Good as he is, only when the team plays well does he do as well. His numbers are a tribute to Mike Nolan's job and the play of the front 7 in general. It was one of the huge differences in the losses and the wins. The play of the front 7 will always be essential to success.

Very few teams get a weapon like him, someone who can shut down the passing game in the 4th quarter and protect your win. Doom gets his sacks more often than not when the Broncos play aggressive defense, stay in their gaps and collapse the play. Usually, Doom places a move on a lineman while his cohorts are filling the lanes and gaps, giving the QB no place to run. Even though the number of sacks is a tribute to his talent and performance, he's getting there because the players next to him are doing a great job.

It comes up a lot when I talk to other football geeks: Disciplined gap defense wins games. I can't explain why the Broncos started trying to run around their blockers instead of taking them on and defeating them, but that was exactly what happened as they lost and it didn't change until Thursday. By moving back to gap control and discipline, they took on and overpowered blockers and showed the kind of performance that they can be proud of. Brandon Jacobs is a big load at running back but he was held to 27 yards on 11 carries. There were no gaps for him to exploit, leading to gang tackles and short yardage. That's the kind of defense that wins game.

If the Broncos maintain that gap discipline against the weaker KC line and Jamaal Charles they can shut down the run game and force Matt Cassel to beat them. If the secondary plays the kind of vicious, lockdown coverage that they showed last Thursday KC won't be able to keep up.

What else does gap discipline result in? Stopping the run on first and second down leaves a lot of third-and-long plays which plays into the Broncos' aggressive style and leads to chances for Doom and Co.

Rookies

There is a lot of talk about the Broncos' rookies in the game. Some fans are leaping to conclude that X player is or isn't a bust based on the 1st half of the season. That's something of a bizarre idea. Despite fan 'rules' about how anyone taken in the the top 10 or 15, or the 1st round, should be ready to come in and contribute immediately, that's a rare thing in the NFL. What you really hope for is that they find some ways to contribute the first season and that they play well over the course of the rest of their career. Anything else is 'gravy' so to speak.

Josh McDaniels isn't opposed to playing rookies who can contribute immediately, such as Moreno and Alphonso Smith. Even Knowshon has struggled as he has to learn a completely different style of running, reading and executing. From the early results, I suspect that he'll be fine but it's also fair to say that playing running back is less stressful mentally than playing cornerback, as an example. Then you get to the defensive line, where you really hope for a breakout in the player's 3rd or 4th year. Demanding too much from the rookies is a path to problems. Why? Rookies = mistakes.

It's not just in the NFL, either. Regardless of the sport, very few rookies contribute much. There's just too much to learn. Even those who play brilliantly in their first season, rare as they are, often suffer a diminishment in the second season, just as Eddie Royal and Ryan Clady have done. Why? It's a tough, fast, difficult game. Once other teams know what you do and what you struggle with, you're going to see a lot of hard situations that will challenge you in new ways.

This means exactly nothing over the course of the player's career; most players improve during their first few seasons. Much is made of the stat that the average player has about a 4-year career, but that stat takes into account the number of payers who don't stay after a single year. They are the undrafted or the badly drafted, those who just can't make the leap from college to the pros. I've never seen a breakdown of how the average is determined, and I'd like to. Because in general, those who do fairly well during their first year tend to be out there for a long time.

That's what we're going to see from some of our rookies. Knowshon Moreno, Alphonso Smith, Darcel McBath, Robert Ayers and David Bruton have all done some good things during their rookie season. I'm not going to get bent out of shape if they can't suddenly be brilliant - that's a rare thing in the NFL. But I do want to see flashes of why we wanted those men, and I have. The rookies are doing well. Give them time.

I have to note that we saw some fine performances from a lot of our 2009 rookies against New York. The draft class stepped up front and center last Thursday night and the list of contributors is long. Alphonso Smith had a big game - he made a couple of mistakes, but his overall performance was excellent and lends support to his draft status. David Bruton and Knowshon Moreno we've discussed; Bruton was brilliant and Knowshon gets better every game. I went back and saw more of Quinn on ST than I expected to. Robert Ayers also returned to the active roster after a week in which the Broncos believed that Jarvis Moss could contribute more for them; they were playing the odds because SD had troubles with speed rushers, and that fit Moss better than Ayers. Ayers had another good game against NY, though. McBath played well. The team has some great young players and they will contribute for seasons to come.

Knowing Knowshon Moreno

Speaking of great young players, I loved Knowshon Moreno's comments after the Giants game:

"Every week it's gonna be tough. The offensive line opened up those big holes for us and we just ran through them. We all looked out for each other."

Typical Knowshon. No arrogance, no personal preening, just a willingness to share the credit and to accept the blame. Given that he's also reputed to be a delight to coach and a pleasure to have around in the locker room, I'm thrilled that he's going to be a Bronco for a long time. Watching his TD run over and over, each time I'm sure that he'll be stopped short and each time he keeps the legs churning in classic form. He's up for Rookie of the Week again, too. Talented, gutsy player. Great draft choice.

Knowshon has been growing into this role on the team steadily and not that slowly, either. The only thing that has stood between him and a few 100-yard games is the fact that he's being rotated with Buckhalter, a runner whose contribution to the team is just as essential. 'Buck' is teaching Moreno during the week and making him more effective on weekends. Both runners block well and receive well and Buck even had a 41-yard kickoff return in the third quarter. That's exactly what a good team requires. I'd love to see a third back in the rotation, but that hasn't been important so far (knock on wood).

Knowshon's comments also bring out the same thing I mentioned above: The Broncos go as the lines go. When the O-Line is making three errors in the red zone, back-to-back-to-back, we are in serious trouble. When they get it together and blast open those holes, they're tough to stop.

By the way, check this from the denverbroncos.com:

During the last three weeks, rookie RB Knowshon Moreno has totaled the sixth-most rushing yards (265 / 88.3 ypg.) and the third-best yards per rush average (5.6) in the NFL. He leads all league rookies in rushing yards (688) and yards from scrimmage (784) this year.

To that end, I loved seeing Polumbus and Hochstein step up against NY. That's exactly what we need to see from them. Daniel Graham made a few bad errors, but he also blasted linemen and linebackers alike and he deserves a round of applause as well. The Giant's were holding him and trying to apply what looked like takedowns against him by the end of the game - he confounded them in high style. The running game will always be dependent on what happens in the trenches, including the TEs. Always has been, always will. Last week, they were the team that's very hard to beat. They need to take that anger that they seemed to tap into to KC. Decembers there are tough.

By the way, a big thank-you to Spencer Larsen and Tony Scheffler as well for their work against NYG. They each played a role in making this a complete-team win and blocked like demons in the running game. I can't think of a single area where the Broncos didn't dominate. The final stats seemed more respectable due to the vagaries of garbage time, but the fact was that NY was shut down and hammered flat.

Another player that deserves recognition is Wesley Woodyard. Woodyard has struggled recently, as did most of the defense, but he brought back his "A" game for the Giants. He was in the right place at the right time over and again, and even though he's very light as LBs go, he's doing a heck of a job on the nickel defense, hitting and making tackles. Nice going, WW. I hope that his neck injury is short-lived.

Orton and Learning

There's no way to deny it: I've been a Kyle Orton fan ever since I watched a lot of film on the man during the offseason. The more I saw of it, the more I liked him. Now that he's thrown with a brace on a right index finger that was mangled and played hobbled without excuse, he's impressed me. This is the second season in a row that he's played on a bad ankle and never complained; I'm starting to really like the man. He never, ever, blames anyone. He puts it on his own shoulders. If they're successful he talks about wishing that he had a couple back and about how well the team played. If they lose, he states baldly that everyone needs to step up more. There's no finger pointing, no nonsense. No fuss, no tantrums, no excuses. Expect to see a lot of Kyle over the next few years. I'm great with watching Tom Brandstater, by the way. If he can outplay Kyle, more power to him. I expect Brandstater to be 2nd string next season. But Orton? You have to go a long way to find a tougher QB. I love that in any player.

It's also worth noticing that we're starting to see more of the longer passes. Whether that's the playbook opening, players getting to know each other better, or taking what the defense gives us can be debated, but Brandon Marshall on a go route will scare a lot of defensive coordinators. He's not blazing fast but his ability to get to the ball is rare when he's playing like he did on Thursday. Orton said this, yesterday:

"He's the first guy that I've had like this. It's been a change for me in my way of thinking, being able to trust him and give him those chances. He's a phenomenal player, and I don't see too many people when the ball is in the air going out and out-jumping him or being more physical than he is going for the ball. You certainly want to put it in a good spot to give him the best chance go up and make a play."

What that tells me is that the early comments that Orton and the other players needed to get used to each other and the offense were right on, and kudos to the guys that caught it. I'm starting to see the defenses collapsing on the short and mid routes and Marshall taking the go route to counter and I love it. Those fans who called for more longer passes are getting their wishes fulfilled. The NY game showed us that this is still the team that started 6-0. They can win a wild card slot if they continue to play like that as the season winds down.

You can talk 'til Hades is endothermic, but Orton will be our starting QB next year. He will agree to a nice contract that will keep us cap-friendly and will give him a lot of financial security. That's exactly why we brought him in and why we brought Brian Xanders on board.

Orton has also improved every year that he's been in the pros. I'd say that you can look for that to continue, and that he's going to bring the rest of the offense with him. .

For Kicks

Here's a toast to Mitch Berger, the much-maligned punter who took over for the struggling Brett Kern a few weeks past. He managed 3 punts for 145 yards, an average of 48.3 yards per punt. I can't tell you why he seems to be improving, but that kind of performance can't be overstated. The punting game in the previous losses tended to the pattern I talked about earlier. By kicking longer and permitting good hang time, he let the coverage move down the field and do their jobs. They did - and a special thanks to MHR favorite David Bruton, who was tearing up ST on Thursday night. When we talk about young drafted players who are stepping up, I don't hear his name quite often enough. Give him a few years and he's going to be a heck of a safety, too, bringing that same intensity and talent for the big hit. I know that we talk about this safety and that one, and that's understandable. I'd love to have Eric Berry playing for the Broncos. But it's more likely that we won't, and we won't have a big dropoff if Bruton continues to develop the way that he has.

Berger wasn't the only one who knocked the laces off the rock, by the way. Matt Prater had a stellar night, bisecting the uprights on kick after kick and driving his kickoffs far back into the end zone. If they can't run it out, they won't have much of a runback. Domenik Hixon managed just two returns for 20 yards each for NY, while Prater was faultless on 4 field goals, with a long of 47 yards. Contrary to many concerns, he's shown no signs of fading as the season wears on. He won the AFC ST Player of the Week award, and he earned it.

"I think that's the best game I've ever had," said Prater. "It was perfect weather for kicking." Perfect weather for a dominating win, too.

Kansas City Here I Come

Want an unusual stat? Kyle Orton is still one of the best QBs in terms of home record in the past 3 decades. That's a heck of a stat, really, but it's not even the one I'm interested in. What interests me is that he plays even better on the road, whether his team might or not. Orton's home QB rating? 80.3, less than his overall average of 84.1. On the road, Orton is managing an 89.6 QB rating. That's one of the things that gives me a lot of confidence gong into the KC game this week: Orton has actually been better on the road.

KC can be a meat grinder at home - that's worse in December and I'll never discount that. The Steelers took them too lightly and were handed their hats with a defeat that could end up influencing their post-season standing. The Chiefs gave a heck of a tussle to Baltimore and beat the Redskins (who are coming on themselves, you might notice) and the Raiders. They are still a weaker team, but they have some pieces that are starting to fall together and their 3-4 is starting to play well. Jamaal Charles is a great addition to their team and Larry Johnson a great subtraction.

The Broncos will be well rested going into the game and they will have some extra time to gameplan. My sole concern is whether this squad is ready to keep on being angry and aggressive. If that happens, I believe that we'll have an eighth victory to celebrate, moving into the game against Indianapolis, but I expect this one to be hard-fought.

One thing I like about KC: Matt Cassel. I like the fact that he's working hard, making improvements, and that he's able to score some points if you give him some time. KC still doesn't have that great an offensive line and frankly, I'm shocked that the Steelers gave them so much time to throw -- it's not a mistake that Denver can afford to emulate. I'm glad that PIT did, though. It gives us a clear picture of what happens when you don't bring the intensity that the NFL requires to a game. My question is whether the Broncos can bring the kind of pressure that has won us some games. If so, we'll probably take this one.

There's a certain glow to a long week off after an excellent home win. Now, let's take it on the road...

Go Broncos!

Titans 20 Texans 17 Recap: Vince Young Reclaims Houston

Jimmy — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:48:35 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Money! (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

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That was a really fun game. The transformation this team has made since the Boston Massacre is really astounding. They are playing with a fire that they really didn't in weeks 4-6. I am not sure how much of that can be attributed to Vince Young, but it is safe to say that his enthusiastic style of play is rubbing off on the guys around him. It is fun to watch.

The Titans came out of the gate hot last night forcing Houston to go three and out on the first series. The third down play was especially sweet as the front four collapsed the pocket around Matt Schaub before Tony Brown brought him down for a sack. Chatt Town Tony Brown has made himself a lot of money this year playing so well outside the shadow of #92. It is amazing that the Titans brought him in basically off the street- another in a long line of success stories under Jim Washburn.

The Titans went three and out as well on their first possession after a Lavelle Hawkins! sighting would have given them a first down but was negated because of an illegal shift. Anyone else curious why we never see Hawk returning anything. I am pretty sure he returned at least kicks in college, and if he is going to be active the might as well find a way to use him. The third down call- screen to Bo Scaife- was horrendous.

The Texans would get the first score of the game after a terrible 34 yard punt from Brett Kern gave them great field position. The play that set up the score was a Schaub 15 yard completion to Andre Johnson with our secondary chasing him Reynaldo Hill style. The touchdown came on a little underhanded toss to Slaton.

After both teams traded punts the Titans would put together a 9 play 80 yard drive that was capped off by a 13 yard pass from VY to Kenny Britt. The play was a really good read by Vince because he had Chris Johnson short but waited for Britt to come open in the end zone. Britt also had a 16 yard catch on that drive. Britt is easily the best rookie receiver the Titans have ever had, and should stay on the field even when Justin Gage comes back from his injury, but of course we know that it is impossible for a player to lose their starting job to injury, unless they are named Vince Young.

The next score came from the Texans when AJ ran right past Nick Harper (SHOCKING!) for a 12-yard TD catch. That prompted a whole host of jokes involving Harper, a vacuum, and Andre's last name in the game thread. Let me take this opportunity to thank everyone that participated in the open game thread. I don't get to be in those nearly as much as I would like, and I had an absolute blast being there last night.

The Titans would answer once again with another long drive- 75 yards this time. That drive included another catch by Britt, a 36 yard run from CJ and the first of two plays on the night that made me run around my living room in celebration when VY faked the pitched to CJ and took the ball to the one. He had been setting that up for a couple of week now and executed it to perfection. The nearly forgotten LenDale White punched it in on the next play to tie the game.

The Titans had a nice drive going coming out of the half that was halted when, in the words of gramsey, Vince went Kerry Collins and fumbled running by himself. The Texans made a couple of big plays off the fumble but were unable to capitalize when Kris Brown missed a 49 yard field goal wide right. That was a huge play in the game because the Texans get a lot of momentum if he is able to hit that kick.

The Titans came back and got a field from Rob Bironas that was set up by a 12 yard run by Vince Young. I can't remember if that was the option read or not, but the option read they ran was a thing of beauty. The Texans defensive end crashed on the fake to CJ, Vince kept the ball and got a big gain. Again, it is amazing how well he is running this offense. He is obviously putting in the time to really understand what Dinger is wanting to do, and it is paying off.

The Texans got a field goal of their own after both safeties decided to watch Johnson run by himself. Maybe Johnson has really good running form and the guys in our secondary are just trying to learn from it. That play went for 49 yards to the Titans' 8 yard line, and to the defenses credit, they were able to hold forcing the field goal.

Bironas missed a 49 yard field goal on the Titans ensuing drive, and things didn't look good for the Titans. The Texans had been hitting big plays and had good field position, but the defense stepped up. Tony Brown got another sack that forced a third and long and AJ dropped a pass going across the middle. He was being defended by Keith Bulluck on that play, and as much as we all love Bulluck, that is a HUGE mismatch. That prompted Hal to ask me why we kept having linebackers covering Johnson. Excellent question.

After trading punts again the Titans had the ball at the Texans 6 with 2:52 to play. The first play was CJ for 3 yards, but the Titans got the phantom horse collar call. Yes, it was a bad call, but they owed us one from the non-call when Vince was tripped. We all know how it played out. My only problem with the last drive was we had 1st and 10 at the Texans 40 with 1:09 left- I understand they wanted to get closer, but they should have run the ball at least once. Best case scenario CJ breaks another one to get us even closer, and worst case scenario it gets stuffed and they are forced to use one of their timeouts. I love that there was never any doubt about the Bironas field goal from the moment it left his foot.

The same cannot be said for Kris Brown's field goal that never had a shot. I was scared when we gave the ball back to the Texans after the horrible pooch kick. They had good field position, :44 seconds and two timeouts. The announcers were quick to tell us that K. Brown had been hitting them from 80 in warm-ups. I have never understood how that is relevant. The Texans hit plays of 16 and 11 before attempting the kick. I probably would have taken one more shot had I been them to try and get it closer. They didn't, K. Brown kicked it a mile to the left and I once again ran around my living room.

Winning is so much more fun. That one was especially fun with all of the crap leading up to the game. Now on to Arizona.

Horse Tracks 11/21/09 - Orton called game-time decision; Jordan and Harris ruled out

Douglas A. Lee — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:41:56 -0000

DB - Week 11 - Fri: McDaniels - Broncos TV

NFLN - Video: AFC West showdown - Vic Carucci

NFLN - Video: Chargers-Broncos discussion - Kevin Acee

DPP - Bet on Simms as starter on Sunday - Mike Klis

DPP - QB a great story, but bad timing - Dave Krieger
"Only one thing keeps this from being a Disney movie: It's about the worst week of the year for the Broncos to have an unsettled situation at quarterback."

DPP - Passes of San Diego's Rivers flow freely against Denver Broncos - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Broncos hurting at running back
"Rookie Knowshon Moreno figures to get the bulk of the tailback work, with Peyton Hillis possibly getting an occasional carry...Rookie outside linebacker Robert Ayers was fined $5,000 for the major face-mask penalty he committed against Washington's Santana Moss on a punt return."

DB - Examining Our Expectations - Mike Rice

DB - An Equal Protection Clause - Chris Gentilviso

INDT - Going in opposite directions? - Hunter Ansley

SI - San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos - Adam Duerson

DB - A Few Minutes With Wesley Woodyard - Broncos
Does anyone have the slightest clue as to why so many TV announcers pronounce his name as "wood yard"? I just don't get it - I look at his name and there's only one way to pronounce it...

DB - Making Up For Lost Time - Zach Eisendrath
Hmm. Maybe Spencer Larsen is bad luck and Brett Kern is good luck for the Broncos...they're 6-0 without Larsen and with Kern, 0-3 vice versa. I kid, I kid....

DB - This Week in Gameday: Expanding His Legacy - Zach Eisendrath

CSG - Broncos confident if Simms starts - Frank Schwab

CSG - Broncos: Three things to watch - Frank Schwab

CSG - Broncos top 10: Best draft picks - Frank Schwab

PFW - Buckhalter says McDaniels is same, win or lose - Dan Parr

CBS - Peek at the Week: Reeling Broncos must find way to derail hot Chargers - Clark Judge

AP - Kyle Orton Misses Practice Again, May Play Sunday

Chargers News

SDUT - Kick cover units aim to make big impact - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Broncos pose a different challenge - Kevin Acee
"Right tackle Jeromey Clary did individual drills but did not work the team period of yesterday's practice and is listed as questionable for tomorrow...Should Clary not be able to go, Brandyn Dombrowski would make his first career start at right tackle."

NCT - Rivers looks to improve on completion percentage - Scott Bair

Giants News

NYDN - New York Giants could be without Antonio Pierce after MRI reveals bulging disk in linebacker's neck - Ralph Vacchiano

NYDN - New York Giants cornerback Aaron Ross is hungry enough to switch positions to get on field - Ralph Vacchiano

NYDN - Dry-eyed Tom Coughlin must find way to turn around New York Giants - Gary Myers

AFC West News

ESPN - Final Word: AFC West - Bill Williamson

KCS - Chiefs LB Studebaker has plenty of drive - Adam Teicher

SFC - Asomugha lets lockdown coverage do the talking - David White

SFC - Gradkowski's teammates laud QB's approach - David White

OT - The Darrius Heyward-Bey drops: Bengals receiver Chad Ochocinco weighs in on the Raiders rookie - Steve Corkran

NFL Opinion

USAT - The Bell Tolls: Caution needed as the NFL tackles head injuries - Jarrett Bell

SN - NFL Week 11: Ten bold predictions - RealScouts
"The Chargers have won two of their last three games in Denver, and we think they're going to make it three out of four...Look for an aggressive game plan from the Bolts, including some no-huddle series to keep those aging Broncos defenders on the field."

SI - NFL Week 11 Viewer's Guide, including Colts-Ravens - Ross Tucker

NFL - First coaching casualty could start landslide around the league - Jason La Canfora

SI - Chris Johnson aims to beat out Adrian Peterson for rushing title - Peter King

ESPN - Oakland Raiders, Cleveland Browns truly offensive - Adam Schefter

NFP - QB class of ’07 endures tough times - Wes Bunting

NFP - There’s still life in Ricky Williams’ legs - Andrew Brandt

SI - Tennessee Titans' Vince Young making most of second chance - Michael Rosenberg

FH - Spielmans' Special Story of Love and Life - Lisa Olson

NYT - Quiet Subdivision Is Home to a Booming N.F.L. Blog - Richard Sandomir

FOX - Mailbag: VY, the Bears and Jared Allen's mullet - Jay Glazer

NFL - Many happy returns: Special teams speedsters have a leg up - Bucky Brooks

Mitch Berger...he's got a "good personality"

TJ Johnson — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 18:30:20 -0000

Sometimes the hot girl at the bar is only hot because she's wearing a lot of makeup and the lights are dimmed low. And while she looks great now, you find out later it was all show, and perhaps you just had a little too much to drink.

Her friend, on the other hand, is only slightly above-average. She falls into the "good personality" category. But you know she's the kind of girl you could bring home to momma.

Which one should you choose?

Neither. This isn't about you. It's about the Denver Broncos.

And they did NOT choose the hot girl.

They chose Mitch Berger.

You know the backstory. When the Broncos signed Mitch Berger three weeks ago, it caused quite a stir in Broncos Country. The Broncos were 6-0. But the dirty little secret was that their punt-coverage unit was horrible. Not because the coverage was bad, but because Brett Kern was out-kicking the coverage.

Denver has dropped three straight games since the signing of Berger. But I wouldn't exactly say he's to blame. As Lindsay Jones points out today in her article from the Denver Post:

Berger's gross punting average in the past three games is several yards shorter than Kern's — 39.7, compared with 46.1 for Kern — but the average net distance when returns are factored in has been slightly better (36.5 to 34.5). Berger also has put only one punt in the end zone in three games.

It turns out the girl with the personality may have actually helped the Broncos, after all.

Of course, some at MHR were against the move. And they will continue to be. Some of us were for it. The day the move was made, John Bena had this to say:

For many of us, both on this site and on MHR Radio, we've been discussing the concerns in the punting game. After the Broncos beat the Bengals in Week 1, the team spent the off day working out punters. I wrote that Kern's ineffectiveness was costing the Broncos - at times 10 yards per punt - compared to some of the better punters in the NFL. That's a first down each change of possession - when you have a defense playing the way Denver's is right now, well, that's a HUGE deal.

Several days later, I wrote a statistical piece as to why the move was made, making the case for Berger based on his ability to limit the amount of opportunities the other team had on punt return:

In the punting game, putting your opponent in their red zone and limiting return opportunities are the most important factors in winning. In fact, the two most important positive relationships between winning and punting are the percentage of your punts that you put inside the 20 and the percentage of punts not returned. Again, don't let your opponent have the opportunity to have opportunity!

And finally, here is a quote from Berger himself before they face the Charger this Sunday (again courtesy of the Lindsay Jones story you can find here). Either he reads Mile High Report or he's a punter who understands what helps teams win games:

"You just want to hit balls accurate and high and give your guys as much time to cover as you can," Berger said. "Hopefully you get some fair catches where (Sproles) doesn't have a chance at all. You want to put the ball in the part of the field where he has the least options possible."

The girl with personality is also well-spoken, which is another plus. Mother will certainly like that.

Admittedly, the debate isn't over. If the Broncos drop another 2 games in a row, the "curse of Kern" talk will again surface. However, Berger is doing his job, even though on TV, he's not got the "big leg" that the casual fan mistakenly associates with winning games. It's about limiting the ability of the other team to get return yards.

Broncos fans, let's not think we need to go back to the hot girl again because we're a little bored. It looks way too needy. And you simply don't need her anyway. She's high maintenance and out-kicks your coverage.

Go Broncos!!

Horse Tracks 11/14/09 - Ryan Harris out; LK Smith starting in place of McBean, who is listed as questionable

Douglas A. Lee — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 14:21:32 -0000

Good Morning, MHR Friends! My brother-in-law Brock (who's a big Packers fan) asked me an interesting question the other day, about whether I thought Mike Shanahan could end up coaching Green Bay next year. At first, I gave him a quick "Are you nuts?!" but after thinking about it my curiosity was piqued; great young QB, decent defense, coach and GM under fire - O-Line and running game in need of fixing - perhaps a Shanny/Gibbs special. Last night, some talking head mentioned a possible reunion with Cutler in Chicago, with Lovie Smith now on the hot seat. Personally, I've had Shanny heading to Dallas next year in my mind all along; but now what if Wade and the Boys go deep into the playoffs? Would Shanny really work for Dan Snyder in Washington? What do you folks think?

NFL Films - Week 10: Broncos vs. Redskins Preview - Video

DB - Week 10 - Fri: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DB - Becoming a Champion Corner - Chris Gentilviso
"There were no changes to the Broncos’ Week 10 Injury Report on Friday. On the Redskins’ side, after not participating in either Wednesday or Thursday’s practice, RB Ladell Betts (ankle) was a limited participant on Friday. He is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game at FedEx Field. A non-participant in Thursday’s session, P Hunter Smith (right groin) was a limited participant on Friday. He is also listed as questionable."

DPP - Paxton's streak to hit 100 games - Mike Klis
"Josh Barrett, a safety in the Broncos' "big nickel" package and a key special teams player, is listed as doubtful for the game Sunday because of a strained hamstring. Right tackle Ryan Harris will miss his second straight game with dislocated right toe. DE Ryan McBean is questionable (knee)."

DP - Harris out; McBean questionable for Sunday - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Champ reflects on deal that seems long ago - Lindsay Jones

DPP - Q&A: Is punter Mitch Berger the next player on the Broncos' hot seat? - Jeff Legwold

ESPN - Down the stretch with Denver, San Diego - Bill Williamson

DPP - Analysis: Redskins linebacker Fletcher leads team in tackles - for a good reason - Jeff Legwold

DB - Traveling Toward Success - Gray Caldwell
A profile of Le Kevin Smith, who will be starting his second NFL game (his first was Monday) tomorrow in Washington.

LTC - Broncos’ Jordan being patient - Brian Howell

CSG - Broncos working on defensive rebound - Frank Schwab

Y! - NFL: Broncos Troubles - Video
Jason Cole calls Jay Cutler "great," while Charles Robinson compares McD to Mangini. Mike Silver reminds everyone that Denver's defense is formidable.

Redskins News

WP - Redskins Gameday: Week 10, Redskins vs. Broncos - Doug Farrar & Paul Tenorio
A breakdown of Sunday's matchups, plus a neat animation of the Broncos' Wild Horses formation.

WP - Betts limited by foot injury but expects to play - Jason Reid

WP - Portis still feeling effects of concussion - Jason Reid

WP - Punter Smith might return Sunday against Broncos - Rick Maese
If not Smith, then Sam Paulescu (who was beaten out by Brett Kern in '08 for the Denver job) would punt for Washington.

AFC West News

ESPN - Final Word: AFC West - Bill Williamson

SDUT - Revolving door on Chargers defense - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Hardwick's return put on hold - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Merriman, Phillips may not play Sunday - Chris Jenkins

KCS - Smith could start at running back against Raiders - Kent Babb

USAT - Bell Tolls: Seymour embracing life at opposite end of the NFL - Jarrett Bell

SFC - Raiders receivers play catch-up during bye week - David White

SFG - Raiders Silver and Black Blog : Mum is Cable's word - David White

OT - Chaz Schilens' return to Raiders might help bad passing game - Steve Corkran

NFL News

NFL - Friday Injury Reports

NFL - NFL not laughing about Ochocinco's dollar-bill joke, fines him $20K

NFL - League fines Bears' Cutler, Harris fined for conduct vs. Cardinals

NFL - Bengals S Roy Williams placed on IR

NFL - Mangini responds to Lewis, says Browns not being overworked

NFL Opinion

FH - Between the Lines: Who's Allowing the Most Sacks? - J.J. Cooper

NYT - A New Cast Doesn’t Slow Peyton Manning - Judy Battista

FOX - Midseason Boom or Bust: Time to trust the Cowboys - Adam Schein

SN - Week 10: 10 bold predictions on playoff picture - RealScouts
RealScouts thinks the Dolts will win the division and the Broncos will miss the playoffs...

FOX - Where have all the bad-boy wideouts gone? - Kevin Hench

NFP - McCarthy has bigger problems than a maintenance worker - Robert Boland

NFP - Ahman never should have left - Andrew Brandt

NFL - Breaking down the free-agent class of an unpredictable offseason - Jason La Canfora

NFL - Scouts give a closer look as the season winds down - Bucky Brooks

PFW - Juniors rule the WR roost again - Nolan Nawrocki

Week 10 Picks and Previews

ESPN - Sunday Countdown online: Your weekly NFL guide - Week 10

NFL - While Brady and Manning duke it out, keep an eye on Young - Pat Kirwan

SI - NFL Week 10 Viewer's Guide, including Bengals-Steelers - Ross Tucker

SI - Cincinnati Bengals defense leads way; Patriots-Colts not big game - Peter King

SI - Patriots-Colts is NFL Game Of The Week - John P. Lopez

SN - Quarterback battles highlight Week 10 action - Clifton Brown

CBS - Peek at the Week: Patriots prepared to exploit Colts' weakness - Clark Judge

NYT - Week 10 N.F.L. Matchups - Mike Tanier
"Tips if you are going to FedEx Field: 1) Do not look DeAngelo Hall in the eyes. He will think you are challenging him. 2) Do not carry a sign to the stadium denigrating the Sherman Lewis-Sherman Smith by referencing Mister Peabody, Sherman T. Potter or General Tecumseh Sherman. Also, no swimming in Sherman’s Lagoon."

ESPN - Bill Simmons Week 10 NFL picks

ESPN - NFC playoffs likely headed indoors - Adam Schefter
"Upset of the week: Redskins over Broncos -- Denver, coming off a physical Monday night loss, now travels back East to play a Redskins team that showed signs of life against the Falcons in Week 9."

Special JC Section
I don't go out of my way to post Cutler articles; after Thursday, he's one of the biggest stories around...

FH - Mel Kiper: 'I Was Right' on Jay Cutler, and Mike Mayock Was Wrong - Michael David Smith

DP - Ode to McJaygate - Mike Klis

DP - Re-ranking 2006 QB class - Mike Klis

NFP - What is the story with Cutler? - Matt Bowen

NFP - Diner morning news: It’s not all Cutler’s fault - Mike Lombardi
"Don’t be too fast throwing Bears QB Jay Cutler into the Jeff George category. Trust me, he’s not Jeff George. He was careless with the football twice Thursday night, but he’s not Jeff George."

FH - Cutler Haters, Apologists: Meet Halfway - Matt Snyder

Poll

Where do you think Mike Shanahan will be coaching in 2010?

Chicago

96 votes

Dallas

115 votes

Green Bay

30 votes

Washington

59 votes

None of the above

62 votes

362 votes | Poll has closed

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 9

TJ Johnson — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 15:30:27 -0000

"So including last night that's three Stats That Don't Lie incidents that didn't kill you. Pain, or damage don't end the world, or despair, or beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man...and give some back."

--Al Swearengen

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Week 9 of the NFL. Every team has now played half of its schedule. We are beginning to see which teams are looking to give out the beatings on a regular basis (New Orleans), which teams are looking to take the beatings on a regular basis (Detroit), and which teams are just looking for Tim Tebow.

The Denver Broncos? They took another punch to the face this week, but with a 6-2 record, let's just say, I wouldn't want to find myself in a back alley with Brian Dawkins.

Welcome once again to The Stats That Don't Lie for Week 9. These are the adamantium claws of stats. Your statistical Weapon X. In short, these are the stats that are enough to piss off a Wolverine. They are: Turnovers, Field Position, Time of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

As always, for those that need a primer, or want to look at the stats from previous weeks, just click on the following links (Raiders fans, if your mom says it's not past your bedtime, I guess you can click too):

I'm not going to lie to you, my friends. In these four statistical categories, the Broncos continue to nose dive faster than Mitch Berger's roster spot. Let's take a look from last week:

Week 8 - Broncos' Rankings

Average Turnovers/Game: 2nd (tied with New England and Indianapolis)

Average Starting Field Position: 26th

Average Time of Possession: 13th

Average 3rd Down Efficiency: 19th

Week 9 - Broncos' Rankings

Average Turnovers/Game: 6th (tied with Baltimore)

Average Starting Field Position: 25th

Average Time of Possession: 16th

Average 3rd Down Efficiency: 18th

Last week I wrote that Denver continues to show a dangerous trend that could not be sustained. From this week's rankings, this disturbing trend continues. On average, the Broncos are starting drives on the 27.70-yard line (this is up slightly from last week because I went back and re-adjusted for the two Eddie Royal returns for scores). This is lower than the league average of 29.59, and lower than both Tampa Bay (30.06) and the Broncos' next opponent Washington (28.44).

While the last two games are easy to "pin" on Mitch Berger (and fries), this trend started well before his signing. Even when Denver was winning, they were continuing to lose the battle of field position. There is plenty of blame to go around, from the coverage and return units, to the returners and kickers themselves. I usually try and restrict my views to stat-based, but I am making a plea for Alphonso Smith on both punt and kick returns. Now that Ty Law is here for nickel situations, it makes sense for Smith to get on the field in this capacity. Given that he was drafted in part to be a returner, I think he ought to be given consideration once again.

We need to also be honest regarding 3rd-down efficiency. The Broncos are really starting to suck (not Raider bad, but pretty bad), converting only 37%, which is right at the league average. Even the putrid Detroit Lions (37.55%) have a better 3rd-down efficiency than does Denver. If the Broncos ever want to make a legitimate run at the playoffs, they need to be above 40%. As an example, Minnesota (46.19%) and New England (44.70%) are well in front of them. Emmett Smith and I pointed out Orton's problems on 3rd and long in a previous article on Monday, and until Denver improves on 3rd down, the criticism of Orton will continue, and much of it will be warranted.

In Orton's defense, part of the problem has been Denver's running game. MHR member Boydy pointed this out on several instances during the game thread. On 2nd and long, the Broncos were running up the middle for very short, putting themselves in 3rd and long on several occasions. And (all together now in a chant) Orton needs manageable situations.

Is it the play calling? Ben Hamilton? A Brett Kern/Jack Williams jinx? Those are questions that many MHR members have already answered in far greater numbers and with more preciseness than I. However, later in the week, I'll be looking at every single sack and incompletion from the Baltimore and Pittsburgh games (play-by-play) with some statistical analysis of the situation.

Through Week 9, here are the rankings of the 32 teams in the four categories:

In addition to Denver, I've highlighted two other teams worth noting. Both are in the top ten in these four statistical categories. They are New England and Minnesota. In particular, notice how well balanced New England is, ranking 1st in Turnovers, 8th in Field Position, 3rd in Time of Possession, and 6th in 3rd downs. I think anyone who would pick against the Patriots right now is a complete fool. I fully expect them to beat the Colts in Indianapolis in the coming week. Peyton Manning could be the best QB that ever played, but the Patriots are a team, and last time I checked, Tom Brady isn't JaMarcus Russell.

Week 9 Games

Before getting into the Week 9 numbers, a few of the games are of note, and I'd like to spend at least a little time on them, because they really illustrate some interesting points.

First, there's not much to say about the Denver/Pittsburgh game other than Denver lost all four categories for the 2nd straight week in a row. If you lose all four, you very rarely win in the NFL, because it means you simply haven't been on the field very much, you aren't generating opportunities to score, and when you are on the field, you can't sustain anything. While it's Raider football, it doesn't get me fired up.

Denver's average starting field position for the game was the 21.64 yard line, as MHR member Chibronx pointed out in an earlier post today. The Broncos could just as well told the referees before the game, "We'll just take a touchback if you don't mind...every drive." They were also a nasty 35.71% on third downs, while Pittsburgh was 58.33%.

There were two games this week that almost made a liar out of the Stats That Don't Lie. The San Diego/New York game was the first. The second was the Miami/New England game. In both cases, the winning team only won field position, and by a small margin. How does one explain such anomalies?

In a nutshell, both field position and turnovers are relative to location, and situation. This is intuitive, and has been brought up before. Bur more importantly, if you look at the stats from these two games, the turnover battle was within one. And, as much as I like to make stats the definitive answer to all subjects football, even I will admit that sometimes, football is about making one or two plays that the stats just won't describe.

Such was San Diego's last drive. The Chargers got the ball at the 20-yard line, took little time off the clock (1:46), didn't need any 3rd-down conversions (they were striking too quickly), and they didn't turn the ball over. Sometimes a great play is better than a stat (John Elway made a career out of this, after all; Dan Marino, not so much).

Perhaps I am still curing my Cutler obsession, but I just can't resist looking at the Arizona/Chicago game statistically. Up until last week, the Bears had been taking advantage of field position to the extent that they led the league in this category. So what happens when they get a game in which their average starting field position is the 26-yard line? Well, Cutler throws for over 300 yards, 3 TDs...and they lose. What would you rather have? Field position or yards? Give me the field position everyday.

Lastly, a lot was made over how the Ravens dominated Denver last week, but look what happens to them just a week later when they don't start on average at the 40-yard line, and their 3rd-down percentage is 10%. Does this mean the Bengals are suddenly better than Denver? No, it simply means that being in the same division breeds not only contempt, but familiarity. It's the same reason Oakland can go and beat a team like Philadelphia, but the next week, against a division opponent, become the same cuddly Tom Cable-coached team.

Week 9 Summaries:

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

3 teams had 0 turnovers. 1 won (33%); For the season, 41/51 (80%)
9 teams had 1 turnover. 6 won (67%); For the season, 41/69 (59%)
8 teams had 2 turnovers. 6 won (75%); For the season, 36/77 (47%)
4 teams had 3 turnovers. 0 won (0%); For the season, 7/36 (19%)
1 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 4/19 (21%)
1 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 0/6 (0%)

Week 9 Big Picture:

The team that won the turnover battle won 10 of 13 games played (77%).
In the previous category, remove the ties (2 games) and this changes to 62%
The team that won the time of possession battle won 6 of the 13 games played (46%). This is the lowest I have seen this figure in 2 seasons for an individual week.
The team that had better third down efficiency won 8 of the 13 games played (62%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 9 of the 13 games played (69%).
There were 3 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In 3 of the 3, the same team won on the scoreboard (100%). For the season, this stat is 44 out of 45 games.
The winning teams this week averaged 1.38 turnovers, 29:43 in time of possession, 44.64% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 30:97 yard line. This is the first time I have ever seen time of possession below 30 minutes for the winners in an individual week.

Top 5 in Week 9:

Top 5 in giveaways: 1. TEN; 2. MIA; 3. KC; 4. 9 Teams tied with 1
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.CIN 2.NYG 3.JAX 4.GB 5. HOU
Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.HOU 2.PIT 3.ARZ 4.WAS 5.JAX
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.DET 2.TB 3.ATL 4.ARZ 5.TEN

Running Totals, Season (through 9 weeks):

129 games have been played this season
82.95% were won by the team with less turnovers (counting ties as wins)
66.67% with a better time of possession
67.44% by the team who won on 3rd down
72.09% by the team that won the field position battle.

9-week Averages for Benchmarking This Week's Games:

9-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.71

9-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:11 (thanks to numerous OT games)

9-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.61%

9-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.59 yard line

Here are the individual game stats from Week 9 (including obligatory comments):

The Look Ahead

Looking ahead to Washington, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd-Down Efficiency

Denver 1.13 30:22 27.70 37.00%

Washington 1.88 28:44 28.44 31.83%

Washington clearly gives the ball up more often, and their 3rd-down efficiency is much worse than Denver's (which has been pretty bad as of late). Sure, the Skins generally get better field position, but not by much, and not enough to offset the other stats. Given Washington's average run defense, look for the Broncos to run the ball down Washington's throat and control the clock all day, setting up the play action to Marshall.

The Wolverine wants some more NFC East meat. Clinton Portis probably doesn't play after suffering a concussion. And, well Nobody makes The Stats That Don't Lie bleed its own blood 3 weeks in a row. Nobody!

Go Broncos!!!

Last Stat: 1.47% (percentage chance that Dan Snyder exchanges X-Mas Cards with John Riggins)

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:30:23 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

about 1 month ago: Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, left, tries to elude the rush of Denver Broncos' Darrell Reid (95) and a second defender during the first quarter of an NFL football game Monday, Nov. 9, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

Happy Tuesday, friends. After being up late, and watching a hard-fought game go awry, I bet you're pretty bleary-eyed, and grumpy, but let's try to make this a good day. I don't want to think that the Broncos have fallen into losing habits here, and I really don't think that's the case.

Of course, those who speak, but don't know what they're talking about, will start screaming about how the Broncos have been exposed, and they're a fraud, and every other damn thing. A few persistent issues have emerged, but they can be corrected. If anything, losing back-to-back games against good teams can teach you a great deal about your own team.

Let's reflect on this, as I know the coaching staff is, and the players are. Next week, the Broncos face the Redskins, which presents a great opportunity to get back on the winning track. After that, San Diego comes to town. The Broncos still control the AFC West, make no mistake about that.

On the other side of the jump, we'll break it all down. Ready..... BEGIN!!!!

1. It's now midseason, and the Broncos are 6-2, and in first place by a game, and having beaten San Diego on the road. Think back to August, and if I told you that's where the Broncos would be, you'd be happy to take that deal, right? It's a little less great to win the first 6 and lose the last 2, but whatever.

I mentioned some issues, and I want to talk about them briefly. I think all are fixable in the second half of the season.

a. Ben Hamilton is getting to be pretty useless, and I think it's time to see what Seth Olsen has. Hamilton has gone from being above-average before his concussion-driven missed season, to average last season, to decidedly below-average this season. Every time the Ravens and Steelers needed to get pressure on Kyle Orton, they did it over Hamilton. Every other team in the NFL has seen that, and will try to replicate that strategy.

From former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah, during the game:

I don't know what Olsen can do yet, but he's definitely bigger and stouter than Hamilton. I have to think he can anchor better than what we've seen from #50. I am pretty sure Russ Hochstein isn't the answer, but I'd like to see what Olsen looks like.

b. The Broncos need better execution overall on offense. The scheme is fine, and the players are fine, they just need to make the plays that they have a chance to make. They have had some bad penalties, some poorly-timed drops, some slip-and-falls in the running game putting them off schedule, and lately, some bad throws. Plays like Brandon Stokley coming just short of a first down, and Hamilton getting called for a (really questionable) holding penalty on a converted 4th-and-5 are what has been hurting the Broncos offense. The coaches need to send the message that if the players who are playing don't execute, they'll find somebody who will.

c. Signing Mitch Berger was a big mistake. I think it's worth working out some other punters, but really, I liked Brett Kern. If somebody better than Berger is available, I think he should be brought in. Getting a good punter needs to be a high priority in the offseason, too.

d. Interestingly, short-yardage offense has improved during the two losses, as the Broncos have shown a willingness to throw some in those situations. It is still a concern going forward, though. Olsen may help here, if he is given a shot.

e. No-huddle offenses have been problematic for the Broncos the last two weeks. They limit their ability to disguise coverages and rush packages, and they also make it hard to substitute as much as the Broncos want to. Not every team is effective in the no-huddle, but just about every team the Broncos might see in the playoffs is. They need to figure out who their best base defensive group is against the no-huddle.

I think my underlying thought right now is that the Broncos probably aren't quite ready for the Super Bowl, but they hung with a team tonight who is a real championship contender. They beat New England a couple weeks ago, who is a real championship contender. They beat Dallas and Cincinnati, who at the least are good teams. The Broncos have a ways to go, but as first halves of the season go, you have to feel pretty good about theirs. It's not time to start anything over, or blow anything up. It's time to make a few adjustments, execute better, and keep working toward winning games.

2. Information from My Eyes, Steelers at Broncos.

a. Did I mention that I think Mitch Berger sucks? Nothing has particularly changed for me on that score. John Bena coined a new term last night, Brett Kern-backers. I liked Kern, but I don't think I am a Brett Kern-backer. I am a guy who wants a consistent good performance from the Broncos punter, whoever it is.

Philosophically, not a single player or coach on this team means more to me than the team itself. I don't care who is doing it, I just want it done. As much as I love John Elway, the team always came before him to me, too. Part of his greatness, though, was that he'd never make you separate him from the team.

b. It didn't get mentioned a lot, but Tyler Polumbus struggled at RT, especially in the second half of the game. LaMarr Woodley got a lot of pressure and forced a few key throwaways. He'll be okay against most teams, but this was a tough situation for him. Ryan Harris's absence was most definitely felt.

c. I liked the work of both Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal in this game. They consistently did a good job getting open and catching the ball. Marshall had the one drop, but it was a good effort for him overall.

d. I thought D.J. Williams had his worst game of the year, by far. He was taking bad angles all night, and didn't look like he had a prayer of getting off a lot of blocks. I'm admittedly not generally his biggest fan, but he's had the best year of his career in 2009. Monday night, not so much.

e. Wesley Woodyard played a lot more snaps than he's used to, and I thought he wore down in the second half of the game. The Steelers played a tremendous amount of 3 WR sets, which kept Andra Davis on the sideline, and Woodyard in the game.

f. Kyle Orton was actually not too bad for most of the game. He had 2 bad throws, and about 3 bad decisions (one of them was picked off). He was pretty sharp the rest of the night. He needs to cut out the bad decisions, but I was generally a lot happier with his performance tonight than I was against the Ravens. (I don't care about statistics, of course.) Nobody is saying they're thrilled with his ultimate performance, of course, but there's more nuance to the situation, than just looking at the stat sheet.

g. Rashard Mendenhall was the primary reason the Steelers won the game. He got going in the second half, and it forced the Broncos to be more aggressive in the box. I used to think very little of Mendenhall, but he has improved a lot. He runs with vastly better patience and body lean than he did even just a month ago.

h. The Steelers also have themselves a find with Mike Wallace. He's very dangerous for a 3rd WR. They don't do a lot of traditional slot-type stuff, and in nickel offense, if anything, Hines Ward is their slot guy. (I think making definitive distinctions between #1, #2, and #3 WRs is silly.) Wallace has great speed, and he showed good route-running skills Monday night.

i. I liked what I saw of Ty Law in his limited action. Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins both mostly struggled in the game, neither making a great impact. Champ ought to be embarassed by letting Ward jump over him in garbage time. He knows better than that. He also got beat in man-to-man coverage several times by Santonio Holmes. Andre' Goodman was good in this game, though, even beyond his interception.

j. The Broncos use of the "mush rush" was very good in the first half, and very bad for most of the second. Robert Ayers played a key role in containing Ben Roethlisberger when he as assigned that duty, and that's what he was doing when Kenny Peterson knocked the ball free.

k. The Broncos got hosed on the Gaffney challenge, and also on the Haggan fumble recovery. Don Carey has joined my list of bad referees. I like how a return team becomes an intercepting team. I can't believe that he's related to Mike Carey, who is excellent. And he's the older brother? Wow.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games:

a. I watched a lot of the Green Bay-Tampa Bay game Sunday, for a few reasons. I haven't seen much of the Bucs this year, and I wanted to look at Josh Freeman, who I liked a lot coming out of college. He looked like a rookie at times, but he showed a lot of positives too. I thought he looked poised and confident, and I am not that surprised. I remember when he beat Texas as a freshman, and commanded the game. (My buddy lost a grand on the game, and he called me frantically looking for NFL advice for the next day, to "get back even." It was a debacle. I don't give gambling advice anymore, because of that weekend.)

Anyway, Freeman looked like a star that day in 2006, and he looked like he may be one someday in the NFL on Sunday. I think Tampa did the right thing, giving him some time to learn from the sideline, but it has to be Freeman Time the rest of the season.

b. I loved Raheem Morris's line after getting his first victory as a head coach.

Statistics are for losers, and today, we're winners.

And then, there's Chicago Bears lover/reporter/enabler/apologist Brad Biggs of National Football Post, after his beloveds got blown out again.

That's positive news? The Bears got smoked, again, Brad. Their best player, who is supposed to always play well, performed close to expectations. It's only positive news if he is on your fantasy team, which is why I don't really like fantasy football. (Well, that and the dorktastic "experts' you have to tolerate on TV.)

Cutler played alright, but he didn't do anything to elevate the play of anybody else, as usual, and the interception he threw in the 4th quarter did kill the Bears' chances of coming back.

It's amazing how the Bears team has assumed the personality of the 2008 Broncos. There's a good chance they'll get blown away on defense, and Cutler is almost definitely going to need to carry the offense. In my business, we contract with companies to take over non-core operations. We call it a lift-and-shift. You terminate your employees who work in a call center, and we'll instantly hire them. They'll work for us, and you'll pay us a fee that is less than what you pay for this operation. Meanwhile, we'll optimize, and reduce the headcount, and correspondingly, the costs.

Everybody considered Cutler's acqusition to be a lift-and-shift. The Bears got a franchise QB. Imagine what he'll do on a team that plays good defense and runs the ball. Football is such a multi-variate system, it's really amazing.

c. I would really hate to be a Bears fan. They have no high draft picks this year, and suddenly a lot of roster holes to fill. They need 3 or 4 new starters on their offensive line, to begin with. Orlando Pace is done, Josh Beekman and Roberto Garza were never starting-caliber players in the NFL, and Olin Kreutz is getting close to done. I don't care for Chris Williams, either. He's looked passable at RT, but if he was worthy of his draft slot, he would have bumped Pace, because it's clear as day that he isn't good enough. You wouldn't use a #1 on an RTO (Right Tackle Only), unless it was Jeff Otah.

They could also use some WRs, some secondary players, and a pass rusher. We're not asking for much, right?

Chicago has a cash-poor ownership group, and the cold weather and their ugly uniforms don't tend to help draw free agents. (Yes, both things matter. It's part of the problem in Cleveland too.) I just don't know how you can bring in enough players there to improve for next season.

d. On Monday I read a lot of epitaphs about the Chicago defense, which didn't get into a lot of the "why" they're so bad. As I was explaining to a friend a few days ago, a defense has to have all 11 players working well together, in order for it to be sound and effective. Because defense is fundamentally a reactive mission, there are many inter-dependencies among the three levels, and communication, like-mindedness through practice, and discipline make all the difference. That sounds simple, and it really is.

First of all, you'd better either be good against the run with 7 in the box, or have a big-time safety who can move 12 yards from a cover-2 shell to the line of scrimmage really quickly. The Bears can't stop the run with 7, so you know they'll have 8 in the box. Then, there's the passing game. When a team can't rush the passer with 4 players, they need to blitz with numbers. When they blitz with numbers, it makes it hard to play soundly in zone coverage, so you mostly have to start playing man coverage. When you play a lot of man coverage, you'd better hope you have the athletes to cover the other team's athletes - and chances are, their #3 and #4 options are better than yours. That's a simple fact of it being harder to find players with coverage skills than it is to find guys who can run a route and catch a ball, when he knows where he is supposed to go.

So you can't stop the run, you can't get pressure with 4, you can't play zone, and you can't play man. All that's left is to guess at what the offense is going to do, and play for that. The obvious problem there is what happens when you guess wrong. You get exposed, and give up huge plays. That sounds a lot like the 2008 Broncos' defense, right?

To apply this to the Bears, they used to get pressure with their front 4, but Tommie Harris is having a bad season. He was a healthy scratch for the Cincinnati game, reportedly because of some attitude issues, and they got lambasted. Then, he got ejected over some extreme foolishness 1 minute into Sunday's game. The Bears again got crushed. Harris is among the best 3-technique DTs in the NFL, when his body and attitude are right.

With no Harris, Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye have struggled to get any pressure, so the Bears have blitzed, ineffectively. They have all these tall, slow CBs who can't do anything except play zone coverage, and they got shredded in man-to-man on Sunday, as they did against Cincinnati. If you decide to be a cover-2 team, you'd better play a lot of cover-2, because your personnel can't hold up playing man.

If Harris can manage to get his body and mind right, and have a dominant second half, he could personally bring a soundness back to the Bears that could send them on a 6-2ish run in the second half to finish 10-6. The more likely outcome is that he continues to sulk, the Bears continue to get gashed, and they finish 7-9 at best. And the Broncos have a nice draft pick. Thanks, guys :)

e. Funny story. My brother Chris (who did join MHR as Chris911, incidentally) and I were talking on the phone the other night, like we do sometimes.

Chris: You know, Jay Cutler has a losing record in games where he throws for over 300 yards.

Ted: You know, Jay Cutler has a losing record as a starting QB in the NFL.

Yessir. I love that draft pick more and more every day.

f. Remember the spring of 2008 when many wanted Denver to become Vanderbilt West? It hasn't worked out so well for Chicago. Earl Bennett's ceiling is to be an average starter, if he puts it all together. He can't get off bump coverage right now, whatsoever. He also runs bad routes and drops the ball a lot. In other words, everything he was supposed to do well, he doesn't. Yes, I know he had 7 catches for 93 yards Sunday, but the vast majority of it was in garbage time, against soft zone coverage. (And, yes, wise guys, I know, most of the game was garbage time.)

Chris Williams, I already discussed. He has definitely been a disappointment. This year, the Bears took D.J. Moore, a CB, who is somehow not good enough to beat out any of the pu pu platter of guys who take turns opposite Charles Tillman. He has been a gameday inactive all season, and is not even a special teams contributor.

I watched the Florida-Vanderbilt game Saturday night, and was reflecting on this. Vanderbilt has no hope in the SEC. They can't recruit talent that is nearly good enough to compete, and most of their guys have tended to underachieve in the NFL. They are on my list with Texas and Ohio State of schools whose players I am naturally suspicious of, although it's all for different reasons.

I wonder if Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Stanford, Duke, Rice,and Baylor ever thought about forming a football-only, high-SATs conference. Actually, this year, Vandy would be in the bottom half of that league, too.

g. Staying with the college theme for a minute, the best all-around QB I have seen this season at any school is Cincinnati's sophomore backup, Zach Collaros. He has completed 76% of his passes for 1,229 yards, with 10 TDs and 1 interception in the 3+ games he has appeared in. He has also rushed 43 times for 281 yards, and 4 TDs, while only being sacked 10 times.

Cincinnati's original starter, senior Tony Pike, is expected to start this week, although head coach Brian Kelly did cop to it being a tough decision. Pike is likely to be drafted on Day 1 next spring. Collaros is going to contend for the Heisman Trophy next season, and he'll be a high pick too, when he decides to leave school. He's the total package, with an above-average arm, very good poise, and outstanding accuracy and athleticism. The only knock on him is that he's 6 feet tall, but he has some definite Drew Brees-like qualities as a thrower. This is a 75-yard TD run against a South Florida team with lots of athletes. The guy is real.

h. A guy I really like on an otherwise not-great unit is Atlanta Guard Harvey Dahl. He has been getting very good pad level, and driving guys, in helping Michael Turner have his best two games of the season. I beat up Sam Baker for his pass protection last week, but he did well in the running game Sunday, too. The Redskins are normally solid against the run, but Atlanta gashed them repeatedly.

i. Michael Lombardi stole my thunder, which is an occasional hazard of writing for Tuesday mornings. (The) Other smart analysts see(s) the same things and beat(s) you to talking about them sometimes. Ray Lewis definitely looks like he's doing it more on guile and want-to than skill anymore. I respect his effort greatly, and sometimes he makes a huge play, like against the Chargers, but he's clearly hit his downside. Big up Lombardi, for consistently seeing what the reporters don't see. (By the way, it's weird and unnatural to see Lombardi stand with a mic and interview players and coaches for NFL Network. Stop the madness, and be an analyst, Mike. You're better than some locker jockey.)

j. I was pretty critical of Dallas' Mike Jenkins earlier in the season, and he deserved it. Lately, though, he's been playing fantastic football. He did a great job Sunday night, and was the largest part of the Dallas secondary's outstanding effort not to give up the big plays that Philly wins with every week.

k. The Eagles are reputed to be a West Coast team, but they are not that, and never have been since Mr. Game Management, Andy Reid, came to town. Donovan McNabb isn't a West Coast QB, who does really well with timing throws. The Eagles are a vertical, downfield team, and they finally have guys in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek, who can get down the field and make the plays they want to make.

l. By the way, everybody knows I like Tim Tebow, but McNabb is the guy who Tebow most reminds me of. They played in similar-ish option-heavy offenses in college, and they have very similar profiles as throwers coming into the NFL. Tebow's stats are down this year, mostly due to bad pass protection, but he's throwing the ball better than ever when he gets some time.

m. The Chargers might be back. I haven't seen their LBs look as good as they did on Sunday in two years. Some of that may be due to the Giants offensive line, though, which is good in the running game, and below-average in the passing game. All this stuff about them having the best line is hogwash. (I've actually seen Michael Lombardi say that this season.) They have a natural LG, David Diehl, playing LT, and he gets owned by good pass rushers.

n. Brandon Jacobs looks really slow to the hole this season. He was never quick, but he's a different player. I have to wonder if he is hurt. Of course, I am prejudiced against tall RBs, because, definitionally, it's easier to hit them, than it is the compact guys. It's fair to say Jacobs has never been a favorite of mine.

o. I'd like to say that ST&NO favorite Alex Smith has established himself as a clear-cut solution at QB for the 49ers, but the fact is, they've lost all three games which he has played in. Two of the three interceptions he threw on Sunday were off the hands of his own players, so I don't really put those on him, personally. On the positive side, that play he made for a TD pass at the end of the first half was an All-Pro caliber play, that not many QBs could make. He kept himself alive with his feet, and made a perfect throw on the run.

This is what I know about Smith. His biggest problem is that he struggles with the mechanics of drops from under center which are more than 3 steps. It's not natural to him, and his footwork is slow, like he is thinking about it. That got him sacked on A-gap blitzes two or three times Sunday.

Smith is much more comfortable from the shotgun, and I think I would go to a medium-gun alignment with him, that is often called the Pistol. It's run a bit at some colleges, notably Nevada, and the Chiefs used it with Tyler Thigpen last season. The QB lines up 3 yards behind the center, with the RB 3 yards behind the QB. It provides better directional evenness to your running game than lining up in a full shotgun with the RB to one side or the other of the QB.

Smith can do all the things you need your QB to do; it's just a matter of putting him in position to be successful. I'll be interested to watch this game on Thursday night, against Chicago, because he could have a huge game.

p. I did like what I saw of Vince Young, again. He has played like he's fine with being part of a conservative game plan, which is what he needs. The option stuff he was running with Chris Johnson was effective, and he did hit Justin Gage deep on a couple throws. One, in particular, used all of Gage's vertical. He was actually a starter on Missouri's basketball team in his college days.

q. The Titans are suddenly playing some defense again too, especially Michael Griffin at safety. I also was impressed with William Hayes, who has taken over at LDE for Jevon Kearse, who may have finally had it, at this point. The Titans are a threat to make noise as a spoiler in the second half of the season. The return of Cortland Finnegan has helped them a lot, too. He's not the greatest cover guy, but he's a hitter, and he is always close to the ball. He compares favorably to Asante Samuel in that way.

r. The Panthers just make me shake my head sometimes. They are almost completely back to their 12-4 level from last year lately, except for their QB play. They really erred by not getting one, but John Fox and Jake Delhomme are almost married. Delhomme is going to cost Fox his job, for his sentimentality.

Remember when the Chargers whacked Marty Schottenheimer coming off the 14-2 record? It was the right move. So would cutting ties with Delhomme have been, after last season. Of course, the Chargers blew the second part by hiring Norv Turner. The Panthers will get their chance to do something in the offseason, but they have no first-round pick. If San Francisco decides Alex Smith isn't their guy, he'd be perfect for a team like Carolina, who runs the ball and attacks downfield off of play action. Marc Bulger might be a possible fit too, as the Rams will almost certainly be drafting a QB this year. The Panthers will likely need to get a retread, though.

s. The Saints deserved to get beat on Sunday, but they managed to win anyway. That's something championship teams do, is win without their best stuff.

t. The Texans are really close to being a serious playoff contender, but a Chris Brown goal-line fumble and a Kris Brown missed field goal have basically cost them two games. People haven't noticed, but Matt Schaub is putting up Pro Bowl numbers in Houston. Old friend Gary Kubiak needs to get his team to execute better in key situations.

u. I said I wasn't going to pick the addict Jaguars again, but I did on Sunday, because the Chiefs are horrible. The addicts then proceeded to almost give the game away. Shocker! ST&NO favorite Reggie Nelson had a very good game for the Jags, and so did Brandon Marshall's best friend from college, Mike Sims-Walker.

v. Matt Cassel was the bright spot for the Chiefs, again, and he continues to do pretty well with very little help. I guarantee that the Chiefs don't regret trading for him, especially at the price they paid.

4. In honor of Veterans' Day, I wanted to blaze a different path by doing something apolitical and propaganda-free. It's Tangential Story Time, in ST&NO. Yay!!!

Most regular readers are at least generally aware that I spent 4 years in the United States Navy. I don't think I have ever mentioned that going to sea is basically my family business, though. My dad was in the Navy for 14 years, and then has worked as an executive for companies which supply the Navy for the last 20+ years. His brother recently retired as a long-time civilian mariner for the Navy, and his other brother was a Marine, who rode a Navy ship or two. My youngest brother is currently employed as a Naval civilian mariner, presently working for a ship stationed in Gaeta, Italy. There's lots of salt in my family.

So, I woke up early on Sucker-Free Saturday, and a headline popped into my RSS reader that grabbed my attention.

Navy ship built with WTC steel to go into service

I clicked the link to read the article, and saw something very interesting in the first sentence.

NEW YORK — The Navy is commissioning its newest battleship with a bow forged from steel that once held up the World Trade Center.

The Navy decommissioned its last four remaining Iowa-class Battleships in the early 1990s, and I didn't think that they had any plans to bring them back, despite some misgivings from parts of the Marine Corps that current Naval Gunfire Support programs wouldn't be sufficient for a Normandy-like shore landing.

A Battleship is a specific type of ship, like in the children's game of the same name. The Iowa class had wooden decks, and three turrets with three independent 50-caliber 16-inch guns each, for a total of 9 guns. The shells were 16 inches in diameter, and weighed 2,700 pounds each. (Modern Cruisers and Destroyers have one or two (mostly two) 5-inch, 54-caliber guns each, by comparison. Those shells are 5 inches in diameter, and weigh 70 pounds.) Each Iowa-class turret took a crew of 94 men to operate, and I actually served with a guy who was working in Turret #3 on the Iowa in 1989, when Turret #2 exploded and killed 47 men.

Battleships played a large part in the Pacific theater in World War II, and somewhat minor parts in Korea, Vietnam, and the first Persian Gulf War. The primary missions of Battleships were shore bombardment, and ship-to-ship combat. The advent of precision-guided munitions (like Harpoon missiles, for ship-to-ship combat), and the reality that 5-inch, 54-caliber guns are considered by the Navy to be sufficient for Naval Gunfire Support, largely made battleships unnecessary, and the last Battleships were decommissioned not long after World War II, with a few held in reserve status. Iowa, New Jersey, Wisconsin, and Missouri were each re-commissioned several times over the coming decades, with the Missouri being the last active battleship, being decommissioned for the last time in 1992. (The picture below is of the Iowa, shooting her guns to starboard.)

So, there's this new ship, called the USS New York, and the AP says it's a battleship. At first, I was skeptical, because I know that the Battleship mission is obsolete. Thinking about it, though, it is named after a state, like US battleships have historically been. I also know that the Bush Adminstration Pentagon had some meat-heads in high places of their procurement organization, who favored weapons systems with some badass factor to them, whether they were strictly necessary or not. But I would have heard about new Battleships, right? Hmmmm.

I called the guy who would know, my father Ed, who has appeared in ST&NO before, and I got my answer.

Ted: Hey, what do you know about this new ship, New York, that was partially built from World Trade Center steel?

Ed: Well, it's being commissioned this morning.

Ted: What kind of ship is it?

Ed: It's a piece-of-(bleep) LPD-17 class. A Gator Freighter. (Note: Gator Freighter is the ~~somewhat~~ very derisive name for Amphibious Navy ships which primarily carry Marines. Surface combatant guys, like me, don't think too much of Amphibs, or the people who ride them.)

Ted: Oh, OK. This AP reporter called it a battleship, and it's named after a state, which lends that some coincidental level of plausibility. I was skeptical, so I thought I'd ask somebody who knows.

Ed: <Scoffs> The media doesn't know what the hell they're talking about.

The media doesn't know what the hell they're talking about. Hmmm... Where have I heard that before?

5. What's New In Cleveland Update:

We have a great local brewery here called Great Lakes Brewing Company, that puts out this great stuff they call Christmas Ale every year, at this time. It tastes like cinnamon, but it's 7.5% alcohol by volume, so if you're like me, and you drink them like they're just expensive Bud Lights, they can really creep on you quickly.

So, I was at a the Cleveland State University bar called Becky's last Thursday, for my fraternity's monthly alumni happy hour. I was pleased to discover that they had Christmas Ale on tap, which I would later find out was running me $18 per pitcher, times 3 pitchers. Whatever. I am drinking some fine seasonal beer, and one of the guys says, "Hey, that's Mike Trivisonno right there, like 5 feet away."

Trivisonno is the local Radio Idiot, who I have disparaged on here before a few times, as being part of the Browns problems. I am not sure what he was doing at Becky's, of all places, but he was hanging out with some uglo-Americans, who may or may not have been related to him. He's holding court, and talking about the Browns, and how the city is cursed, and blah blah blah. (I hate it when people say "blah blah blah" in a conversation, but for some strange reason I just felt the strong need to type it there, like my ex-wife possessed my body momentarily, or something. Deal with it.)

It seems the work of the Radio Idiot is never finished. He bloviates even off the clock. I wonder if Rush Limbaugh does too.... That was a little deeper than a Shallow Thought. Focus.

OK, here's the deal. There's no such thing as curses. There's only confusing hope for a plan (hat tip to Michael Lombardi). That's what they do here, in all sports - even the Cavs, to some extent. (Let's face it: the Shaq acqusition is all about hope.)

Randy Lerner, by all accounts, is an OK guy, and he wants to win. He doesn't know anything about football, and I don't think he particularly wants to, either. He's actually a soccer guy, and he owns Aston Villa. He needs somebody to establish and run a program for him. It can't be a Head Coach, because he's too hands-off for that kind of arrangement. (That works fine with appropriately engaged owners like Robert Kraft, Bud Adams, and Pat Bowlen.)

He needs a Bill Parcells-type situation, which is why he is reportedly pursuing Mike Holmgren. I think Holmgren is going to end up saying he'd rather coach than head a front office, but it's a good idea to try. Whoever ends up being the head honcho is going to fire Eric Mangini, and start over from scratch, again. This is increasingly clear. The trick is going to be hiring the right honcho, for the first time since they came back into the NFL in 1999.

Ron Wolf and Ernie Accorsi aren't going to want the job, but if I were Lerner, I'd put on a full-court press to get one of them to help me find the right honcho. A guy I would make a run at is Jimmy Johnson, but only as a team president, not a coach. You hire him, tell him he only has to work 30 hours a week, some of it from Florida, and let him hire a focused GM, (maybe Chris Polian, or Marty Hurney if he is let go at Carolina?) and let them decide what to do with the coaching staff. Then, the chain of command is clear: Owner, to President, to GM, to Head Coach.

As a side note, I expect Mangini to struggle to find future work in coaching. His credibility in the NFL is shot at this point, and what college is going to hire a guy like that? Can you see him talking a kid into coming to play at State U? Absolutely not.

6. So, I know you've been wondering what a guy like me does on a Friday night. My gameplan changes every week, like any good team's (except the Colts); and this past Friday, my friend Ashley was looking for somebody to go with her to a happy hour event at the Cleveland Museum of Art. It sounded like fun, so I emailed her, and we went.

I'd like to tell you that I am a really cultured, artsy guy, but the truth is that I'm not. I'm kind of a rugged football, business, and politics guy. Somewhat embarassingly, it was the first time I had gone to the Museum in 7 1/2 years of living in Cleveland. Ashley is really smart, though, and I figured correctly that I would learn some stuff from her.

There was a Paul Gauguin exhibit, which was included in the price of admission. I looked up Gauguin on the interwebz, and learned that he was a contemporary of Vincent Van Gogh. Van Gogh's brother Theo was actually Gauguin's agent, and he got them to work together in 1888. They spent 9 weeks together at Van Gogh's famous Yellow House in Arles, and they quarreled constantly, because they saw the right way to paint very differently. (At the CMA, there were several examples, side-by-side, where both men painted the same thing, and they looked extremely different.) Both men had bouts of depression and suicidal tendencies. When Gauguin fled the tense situation after Van Gogh threatened him with a razor blade, Van Gogh freaked out, and went to a brothel, where he famously cut part of his ear off. They never saw each other again.

When I saw the news that the Chiefs cut Larry Johnson on Monday, the thought of his relationship with Todd Haley made me think of Gauguin and Van Gogh. Haley is a talented coach, and Johnson is a talented player. Both men have reputations for being difficult, though, and many (including me) were skeptical about the pairing when Haley was hired. Johnson's actions, around callng out Haley on Twitter and using gay slurs, were stupid. Really, it's not too different from cutting your ear off, on the foolishness scale.

Haley couldn't have Johnson play for him again, just as Gauguin couldn't return to Arles to work with Van Gogh. If you're betting on futures, take Haley's (like it would have been wise to take Gauguin.) Johnson is 30 and well-worn, old for a RB; Haley is 42, which is young for a Head Coach. Van Gogh died two years after the ear incident, while Gauguin had 13 more years, and a lot of productivity after that. Go with the guy who knew it was time to cut the cord, rather than the one who cut off his ear to spite his face.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. The worst thing about November is the jewelry commercials during football games. (Well, I guess I should be glad not to see Chevy commercials with any Mellencamp songs.) I have found the answer, friends, if you're into man-cavery like me.

If you have Sunday Ticket with SuperFan, the setup works like this. Watch games on a muted TV (or two, if you can manage it, like I do). Watch the Red Zone channel on a laptop, with SuperConnect, and listen to the sound on the laptop, preferably over some decent speakers. Red Zone has no commercials, so when they come on TV, you can just ignore the visual stimulus, and listen to the sounds of what's going on on the laptop screen. I spent the whole day Sunday with this, so I got to see a lot of football, without hearing incessantly about how you're no kind of man if you don't go to Jared, the Galleria of Jewelry, and that every kiss begins with Kay. Damn, it's great to be single. (This is Ourrrrrrr Country!!!!!)

Have a good week, and let's get ready for a Broncos victory in Washington on Sunday. No hysterics are necessary, let's just take some comfort in the fairly safe assumption that our coaching staff is driving the players to learn from and improve on their mistakes. See you next Tuesday!

Steelers Grind Down Broncos 28-10, I (still) Love This Team!

John Bena — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 04:42:03 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

about 1 month ago: Denver Broncos' Eddie Royal (19) picks up yardage after a catch as Pittsburgh Steelers' Keyaron Fox, right, defends during the first quarter of an NFL football game Monday, Nov. 9, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

Final

Category	Broncos	Steelers
Score	10	28
Rushing Yards	27	174
Passing Yards	221	202
Total Yards	248	376
3rd Down Conversions	5/13	7/12
T.O.P	26:57	32:48
Turnovers	1	3

Here they come. Whether it is the Cutler-backers, or now the Brett Kern-backers, they are coming. Which is fine - as Broncos fans you needn't answer to me, or anyone else, just yourself. Like an unfaithful spouse, you have to look at yourself in the mirror and answer for your fandom.

For those of you that have been around - and been consistent - I welcome you input because, agree or disagree, you have had the same opinion throughout.

Now, to the game. The Denver Broncos are 6-2. They are in 1st Place in the AFC West. Are there things that need worked on? Absolutely. While many of you will point to Kyle Orton, and to the two interceptions, I hope you will look deeper at that. Orton made some bad decisions, yes, but give a little credit to the Steelers D-Line - they were on top of Orton all night.

I had three keys to the game -

1. Establish the run
2. Defensive Turnovers
3. Play from in front.

There was a reason run the ball was first. When good defenses make you one-dimensional, they are going to attack. That was the key in the 3rd quarter - the Steelers were able to establish the treat of the running game while the Broncos could not - 27 yards is, to put in bluntly, a joke. The Broncos will NEVER be a good offense if they cannot run the football effectively. Correll Buckhalter has not been the same since the ankle injury and Knowshon Moreno continues to struggle. The result is the Broncos are trying to run a timing-based, play-action passing game when the threat of play-action doesn't exist.

Of course, the Steelers and Ravens are two pretty good defenses - but that is no excuse. The Broncos have weapons, and they have a defense. They need to commit to the run and find a way to get it done. Sure, pass to setup the run? I simply don't agree - maybe I'm an old-fashioned Broncos fan, but I watched Elway pass and pass and pass his way to 3 Super Bowl losses. I want a smash-mouth running team that gives the QB a chance in the passing game.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the World Champs. They have gotten there by learning from the mistakes, by getting better each week. Tonight - when they faced adversity - they responded by taking the ball 80-yards in 4 plays to score a Touchdown. That is what Championship teams do. The Broncos are still trying to figure that out.

It's disheartening, and frankly, I am pissed. Pissed because the Broncos has limped home, leaving a final score that was not close to how competitive the game was.

But I love this football team and I love where the team is. They have earned their 6 wins in a similar way to earning the 2 losses. The important thing now is the team LEARNS from their losses and IMPROVES them. The Denver Broncos aren't where they need to be yet - not even close - but the important thing is the season is a stepping stone - a progression. I want the Broncos to be playing their best ball on January 9th, not November 9th.

Please try and remember your expectations of this team - and remember the by-laws here at MHR. Have your piece and get over it. The Broncos get right back to work for a trip to Washington this Sunday. The perfect remedy for the offense? We'll see. Until then, keep the faith Broncos fans. We all live and die with the Orange and Blue - in good times, and ESPECIALLY IN BAD TIMES!

GO BRONCOS!

Horse Tracks 10/28/09 - Kern catches on with Titans

Douglas A. Lee — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 12:01:17 -0000

NYT - In Gay Culverhouse, N.F.L. Players With Head Injuries Find a Voice - Alan Schwarz

DB - Recovered and Ready For Baltimore Battle - Patrick Smyth
Notes from the weekly press release.

DPP - Broncos take precautions against flu - Jeff Legwold
The Titans signed Brett Kern and released punter Reggie Hodges. One day you're 6-0, couple days later you're 0-6. Ouch. Well, at least he has a new gig...best of luck, Brett!

DPP - Analysis: Bigger, better QBs ahead for Broncos "D" - Jeff Legwold

LTC - Bold Broncos return from bye week intent on keeping winning formula in place - Brian Howell

LTC - Broncos’ once-daunting schedule now a welcome challenge for team - Brian Howell

PFW - Week Eight matchup tidbits

DPP - Marshall catches shot on TV

VS - PRO BOWL WIDE RECEIVER BRANDON MARSHALL TO CALL THE PLAYS ON NOV. 3 EPISODE OF SPORTS SOUP

DB - Baltimore Memories - Jim Saccomano
Sacco recalls Elway's first trip to B'more as a Bronco.

DB - Service Information for Walt Daniels

DB - Ask Tony Scheffler...

CBS4 - Elway Uses Bye Week To Talk A Little Baseball - Matthew Buettner

Ravens News

BS - Q & A with Ravens cornerback Domonique Foxworth - Edward Lee

BS - Ravens turning to youth movement at linebacker - Ken Murray

NFP - Wilson: Ravens' secondary hoping to bounce back against Broncos

AFC West News

ESPN - How I See It: AFC West Stock Watch - Bill Williamson

SDUT - Scouting the Raiders

KCS - Father says he's among those hurt by Larry Johnson's remarks - Kent Babb

KCS - Chiefs Notebook | Haley targets 'minus plays' - Kent Babb

SFC - 10 quick thoughts on quarterbacks and winning - Scott Ostler

NFL News

NFL - Redskins executive Cerrato defends offseason roster decisions

USAT - Redskins fans aim vitriol at Daniel Snyder as team's heavy-handed tactics questioned - Sean Leahy

NFL - Report: Titans owner Adams wants Young to start at QB vs. Jaguars

NFL - Ex-Saints RB Stecker signs with Falcons; S Moore out for season

NFL - Niners RT Pashos out for season with shoulder injury

NFL - Broken finger might sideline Jaguars CB Mathis vs. Titans

NFL - Miller rejoins Jets to fill special-teams void left by Washington

BN - Bills work out journeyman QB Ramsey - Mark Gaughan

NFL Opinion

NYT - Being Gay in the N.F.L.: ‘The Only Thing We Need Is a Hero’ - Toni Monkovic

NFP - Diner morning news: Lessons for Snyder - Mike Lombardi

NFP - Tavern talk: Dolphins must control the clock - Mike Lombardi

SI - Top 10 revenge games in NFL history - Don Banks
How about TD and Derek Loville putting up almost 300 yards rushing on the Jags in the '97 Playoffs? No, I know the '97 Revenge Tour doesn't belong on this list; but I just wanted to remind y'all of it...Jacksonville, then KC, then Pittsburgh and GB - all teams that had handed Denver some big losses in the '96 and '97 seasons...

SI - Bad quarterbacks, new front offices common with bad NFL teams - Peter King

NFL - These guys are bad: Six teams in big trouble after Week 7 - Vic Carucci

NFL - Delhomme playing miserably, but he might be Panthers' best option - Bucky Brooks

USAT - Ex-Packer Freeman: Lambeau's boos won't shake Brett Favre - Jim Corbett

NFP - Getting behind the Ware deal - Andrew Brandt

NFP - Will Fisher listen to Bud and start VY? - Matt Bowen

NFP - A look at Bradford's NFL future - Jack Bechta

Y! - Bad NFL teams turn sports books into losers - Dan Wetzel

Y! - Rams, Titans at risk of establishing '300 club' - Jason Cole

SN - Collection of castoffs behind Bengals' success - Dennis Dillon

CR - Cutler hasn't performed up to expectations in Chicago - Steve Doerschuk

FOX - Schein 9: Favre in for rough day at Lambeau

CBS - Smith's fresh start, outside threat Crabtree could awaken Niners - Clark Judge

ESPN - Washington Redskins DT Albert Haynesworth races powerboats but fails to speed his team's progress - Jeffri Chadiha

FH - Studs and Duds: Cars-On Target - Shane Bacon

NYT - Favre’s Interception, and ‘Tackle,’ Against the Steelers - Toni Monkovic
Did anyone else notice this? What a pathetic, half-hearted attempt at a tackle...and we're not talking about a pick-6 when you're already down 3 TDs. We're talking about a pick-6 when the game hangs in the balance...

PFW - MVP Meter: Schaub on the rise

PFW - Rookie Meter: Crabtree impresses in debut

NFP - Scout’s notebook: defensive review - Wes Bunting

CBS - Injury might help Bradford's chances for success in NFL - Charley Casserly

Power Rankings

NFL - Expert Rankings: Week 7

Y! - Defensive back grows as latest glamour spot - Mike Silver

PFW - Week Eight power rankings

CBS - Power Rankings: Defense gives Cardinals extra lift - Pete Prisco

ESPN - NFL Power Rankings Week 8

FH - NFL Power Rankings, Week 8: Return of The Kings

USAT - Freefall: Reeling Giants tumble in power ranks as Saints reign

USAT - Jeff Sagarin computer ratings

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 12:30:29 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

2 months ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall tries to pull away from San Diego Chargers cornerback Quentin Jammer after a pass reception for nine yards during the third quarter of the NFL football game Monday, Oct. 19, 2009 in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

Browse more photos »

Happy Tuesday friends, and welcome to another (shortened) edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. This is MileHighReport.com, the premier source of Broncos new and analysis in the entire world. I have been feeling like we're still kind of peripheral, in the eyes of the rest of the worldwide media, but we beat the bejesus out of them every day, when it comes to covering the Broncos.

As they say, game recognizes game, and correspondingly, it also recognizes groupthink and suckiness. By your being here, reading this today, and hopefully, every week, you mark yourself as having good sense, and at least a partial desire to be part of what is a collaborative learning and growth experience for us all. I'm a front-page staff guy, obviously, but I learn interesting things from FanPosters all the time. Those people are the lifeblood of the MHR community, and they should be commended for their outstanding contributions.

If you're a lurker, you obviously have the good sense to consume our front page content. I wanted to take a minute to ask you to consider joining as an MHR community member, and participating in the discussion. We always welcome people just like you, and chances are, you know something that will be of value to the rest of us, or you have a question which will spark a discussion, which has value to the rest of us. Either way, we all win.

Okay, Ted's Own Personal Membership Drive is over. My local NPR affiliate, 90.3 WCPN in Cleveland, has been doing a drive lately (seemingly, every time I am in my car), so I decided to do a quick one in Donny Deutschland this week. I don't want your money, just your participation. (For one thing, I think this is a great week for my lurking brother Chris to join.) Do a smart thing, and get down with MHR. As we say in the US Navy, welcome aboard.

OK, on to football, and whatever else pops into my head. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready....?

Y'all weren't ready. Okay, get ready, and let's try this again. Ready.... BEGIN!!!

1. I have some early thoughts on the Ravens game, which i consider to be a pretty favorable matchup for the Broncos. First, the Ravens are extremely physical, so it's good to be playing them, healthy and coming off a bye week. The Broncos will have to match their physicality on both sides of the ball, and I have every reason to expect that they will.

Offensively, the Broncos need to attack the Ravens outside the numbers, with Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and Tony Scheffler. The Ravens are bad at CB, and really their only good DB is Ed Reed, so throwing it where he isn't is a solid plan. They also need to run the ball, and I believe that they'll have good success in doing so. The Ravens went about 3 years without giving up a 100-yard rusher, and then got hit back to back by Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson in their last two games. This is a good defense, but it's not the vintage great defense we're used to.

Defensively, the Broncos absolutely must tackle Ray Rice, who has arguably been the second-best RB in the AFC this season, just behind Benson. Rice is averaging 6 yards per carry (73-441-3) and 9.8 yards per catch (33-325-1). Rice is very short, and very stocky, which makes him hard to tackle. Joe Flacco can make all the throws, but I love the Broncos secondary against Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton, and Todd Heap. I'm not worried about any of those guys consistently beating anybody in the Broncos secondary. Rice is the key player.

2. Information From My Eyes:

a. I like the vision and decisiveness with which Ryan Grant ran on Sunday. There have been some rumors that the Packers want to replace him, but he hasn't been the problem with the running game in Green Bay. He could use a good tandem back to work with, and better play from the offensive line, but Grant is definitely a starting-caliber back.

b. The Browns are just unwatchable, so I haven't been talking about them much lately. If I were Eric Mangini, this is the all-inclusive list of guys I'd want to keep on the roster after this season: Joshua Cribbs, Joe Thomas, Shaun Rogers, Eric Steinbach, Alex Mack, Mohamed Massaquoi, David Veikune, Eric Wright, Brandon McDonald, and D'Qwell Jackson. (I like Brady Quinn better than he does, but since he clearly doesn't like him, I excluded him). That's the only 10 players who I think are good players (or potentially good players) on winning football teams. Maybe you keep 10 more for next year, which is still going to be transitional. For the rest of the roster, you take a page from your friend Josh McDaniels, and go out and find some professionals to fill your holes, and try to have a very good draft. It is a talent problem in Cleveland, and all the other stuff is red herrings, until they fix the talent.

c. At a total team level, I am very impressed with the Cincinnati Bengals, and I think that they are a serious threat in the playoffs. I know I have smart readers, and I exchanged emails with a guy in the UK named Jake last week. He thought that the Bengals were a lock against the Bears, and I agreed. The Bengals controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and they hit and frustrated Jay Cutler all day.

d. I don't want to be too inflammatory with any of our Cutler lovers (if any are left), but has anybody noticed that he took his personal tendency for being on the losing end of blowouts with him to Chicago? I am sure the Broncos will eventually lose a game, but I find it impossible to imagine this team losing any game 45-10. It takes a certain kind of team to have the wheels just totally fall off in all phases of the game. I looked at the Bears Sunday and saw a complete lack of gameness and mental toughness. We all remember the games the 2006-2008 Broncos had like that, and I don't mean to attribute it personally to Cutler, or take a cheap shot. You simply can't deny, though, that this bad team-wide trait followed him out of town, and joined him in Chicago.

e. Cutler still seems to have the Favre-ian effect on the media and his fan base, where he manages to completely avoid personal blame, even when he plays very poorly, as he did Sunday. I visited the Bears' SBNation side, Windy City Gridiron, and there was virtually no criticism of Cutler, and you can see that he has again escaped much MSM accountability, too. I know I used to rationalize his bad play, and I think everybody here pretty much did too, at least to some degree. It's really a pretty amazing phenomenon, in a bad way. (By the way, I was proud to see that none of our members were over there trolling. Big up, MHR.)

f. Nobody gets picked in the top 5 of a draft because they look like they can't play in the NFL. Cedric Benson's talent just jumps off the screen. He's so fast for his size, and he has changed everything for Cincinnati. He's the main reason that the Bengals are so good on offense, because defenses are having to play eight in the box against him. That allows their good WRs to run wild, and Carson Palmer to hit his choice of open players. Benson is 10 times the player that Matt Forte is. The magnitude of the difference is akin to comparing Brian Dawkins to (Safety) Roy Williams.

g. The Bears' 7-man fronts were getting blown off the ball consistently. Just wait until Andre Smith gets started playing at RT. He is going to flat-out dominate in the running game, if he can keep his head on straight. He was clearly the best lineman in the 2009 Draft, and only his erratic pre-Draft behavior made him last to the sixth-overall pick.

h. Tank Johnson has been excellent all season for the Bengals, and was particularly terrific Sunday. Frostee Rucker and Robert Geathers had big games too, and the Bengals didn't seem to miss Antwan Odom too terribly (for one game, anyway).

i. Remember that business about top-5 guys going in the top 5 for a reason? ST&NO favorite Alex Smith had that on display Sunday. If he is ever put in a position to succeed, and can stay healthy, he will be the second coming of Rich Gannon. He's had 5 offensive coordinators in 5 years, and had the really bad shoulder injury, which he foolishly tried to play through for awhile. Remember, he is still only 25 years old. He's smart, athletic, and throws a pretty nice ball, and he's a humble, team-first player. I think Smith has an opportunity to get his career back on track, because Shaun Hill has played poorly for most of this season. There is no question that Smith is more talented than Hill.

j. It took him awhile, and some tough love from Mike Singletary to get there, but Vernon Davis is the best two-way TE in the NFL. I'd say the next best guy is probably Jason Witten, but there's a big drop-off between the two. Davis is such a fantastic blocker, and he's improved greatly as a receiver.

k. On the topic of pride and mental toughness, you have to be impressed with the job the Saints did Sunday, in coming back from a 24-3 first-half deficit against Miami. They just kept plugging away, and started executing, and eventually overtook the Dolphins. It was a great team effort, on a day where they didn't have their best stuff.

l. One serious concern I have for the Saints is how susceptible they looked to backside pressure on Drew Brees, with Jermon Bushrod filling in for Jammal Brown at LT (Brown is out for the year). Brees was shaky when he was getting pressured Sunday, like most QBs. You especially want to pressure the "A" gaps against him, because he has a strong predisposition for aggressively stepping straight up into the pocket. The Dolphins were especially successful when they generated interior pressure.

m. The Dolphins are probably going to miss the playoffs this year, and they'll look back with regret on letting the Colts and Saints get off the mat, when they had both teams pretty well beaten. Miami is a good team, which has just whiffed on opportunities to beat other good teams.

n. I don't think there is anything particularly noteworthy about Miles Austin, from a skills perspective. I watched the Dallas/Atlanta game when I got back from Dallas on Monday afternoon, and my first thought was that a good portion of the torching Austin put on the Falcons was from the slot in 3-WR packages, against base defensive personnel. I got all set to rip the Falcons for not subbing to match the offensive personnel grouping, but then I thought about it, and found myself wondering if I wouldn't be sticking to base too, if I were their Defensive Coordinator Brian Van Gorder. The Falcons lost their best CB, Brian Williams, to injury last week, and, remember, he was a Jaguars training camp casualty. Behind him are Chris Houston (who is talented but inconsistent), and Brent Grimes (who is not really talented, but tries hard). Nickel offense is the way to beat the Falcons, because they severely lack the quality players in the secondary to match up with it. I think Sunday was the first step to them having that deficiency cost them a playoff spot this year.

o. Isn't it great to have 4 CBs we can trust, as well as two safeties, in Darcel McBath and Josh Barrett, who are very good in man-to-man coverage?

p. One thing that jumped out in the Dallas-Atlanta game was that the Falcons receivers (including Tony Gonzalez) had a great deal of trouble separating from the man-to-man coverage they were getting from the Cowboys (whose secondary is average, at best). Matt Ryan had a lot of really tight spots to throw to, and largely since he got hit a great deal Sunday, he missed a lot of those throws.

q. So, I promised I'd interject some fraternity-man wedding hijinks, whether anybody wants it or not, so here goes. Have you ever had a snakebite? It's a shot my contemporaries and I favor, and it consists of Yukon Jack and lime juice. It strikes a good balance between being masculine and manageable, and it's kind of that one shot that everybody agrees is doable. Anyway - apparently, Yukon Jack hasn't penetrated the Dallas-Fort Worth market very effectively, because these local bartenders there have never heard of it, or a snakebite. Well, Scott (the groom) came to play, and he made sure that there was Yukon Jack at the reception, and that the caterers knew how to make the shot.

So, at some point, when the music shifted from craptastic country dinner music, and moved on to Run DMC, the 5 Tekes who were there did a snakebite. Good times. Then we did another, and we were joined by the cool girls in the wedding party, and a couple of Scott's cousins. The Tekes put it down like it was water, the rest of them struggled, and made faces while choking it down. Scott looked at me, with this extreme solemnity, and he nodded and said, "This is how we do."

Five eloquent words, and truth was achieved. This is, in fact, how we do. He was absolutely right. There's an easily discernible identity about us, as a group of men, and part of that identity is that we dominate some snakebites. I thought of this, as I watched the Short Cut of the Colts-Rams game. The Colts have an easily discernible identity. They play a lot of Cover-2 on defense, and try to limit their exposure to big plays. On offense, they take the whole play clock, try to shorten the game, and Peyton Manning works to always take what the defense gives him. They want to get a 10-14 point lead, and then send Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis after your QB, once you have to throw the ball. There's no secret or mystery to it, and they don't even particularly game-plan much for specific teams, beyond adjusting some protection schemes, maybe. There is a great deal of comfort to knowing exactly what you're going to do, and exactly who you are.

r. Why in the world would the new Twilight movie be advertised during Monday Night Football? I am sure a few people like (or would like) both Twilight and pro football, but can it possibly be more than 10% of the viewers? Seems like little value for the advertising dollar, there, pinning your hopes to a mostly male audience being interested in the visual depiction of chick lit.

s. So, I have a half-sister, Abby, who is going to be 8 in November. She's a smart kid, but when I was over last week, her mother was telling her that she needed to learn how to think outside the box a little more. Abby didn't know what that meant, so I drew her the classic MBA school exercise that our father shared with me when I was about 13 (and he was in MBA school, and this was a brand new idea). This exercise is actually where the now-tired phrase came from.

The objective is to connect all 9 dots, using 4 or less straight lines. As the term "outside the box" indicates, this is how you complete the objective.

I dislike the term "outside the box," because people who have no idea what it means use it all the time. (It's one of those concepts that would have been better off being compartmentalized to smart people only, like any number of concepts I can think of, actually). Anyway, I am taking a long route to applauding the Eagles for making an "outside the box" huge trade last week, just ahead of the deadline.

Will Witherspoon is not particularly famous, because he has toiled on irrelevant teams for his whole career (first, some mostly bad Carolina teams, and then some awful St. Louis teams). He's very good, though, and he has experience both in the middle, and on the weakside. He's a run-and-hit player, like the kind of guy you'd probably see in a Jim Bates- or Larry Coyer-kind of design. It seems to me that Steve Spagnuolo didn't think that Witherspoon particularly fit his system, which is, of course, basically the same system used in Philadelphia and with the New York Giants. It's a big, blitz-happy 40-front, which is designed around getting A-gap pressure consistently. It's stylistically similar to a Phillips 3-4, and it favors interior front-seven players who are basically 3-4 profile guys.

The Jim Johnson tree has always favored big, downhill thumpers in the middle. Power trumps speed at that position. The quintessential guy is Jeremiah Trotter, who was the size of a DE in his prime, and is now closer to a DT. (Trotter, you'll remember, once struggled mightily when he signed a big contract with Washington, and they tried to make him fit their scheme.) The Eagles brought him back this season, and he was a huge liability in the passing game (to wit, see the Raiders game last week). By bringing in Witherspoon, the Eagles went outside of type, but the impact single-handedly returned them to real-contender status. He had a huge game Monday night, with an interception for a TD, and a strip-sack, and I expect that it's only the beginning.

t. I hope Jon Gruden doesn't get and/or take a coaching job next season. He is fantastic on Monday Night Football, and y'all know I am not too prone to wantonly complimenting much of anything about ESPN. He had a great piece of information on the Redskins, which was really shocking to me, actually. Clinton Portis told him that the last time he heard an audible, he was a Bronco. Gruden's point was that if Jason Campbell could at least change the protection scheme to account for overload blitzes, it could put him in better position not to get crushed, while knowing the crushing is coming.

Umm, you think? That's just scratching the surface of the benefits of audible-ing. The Redskins are a total Mickey Mouse operation, and I am just shocked that they didn't have anything in place, even when Joe Gibbs was there. That strikes me as having to be an organizational policy, and if it is, it's the stupidest thing that I have ever heard of, in 22 years of being a serious football observer. I know high school teams that audible, for God's sake.

u. Jason Peters, who I have been wanting to take a close look at, looked pretty cockamamie to me on Monday night, which agreed with my long-held perception of him. He gave up a sack, and generally looked like a low-effort, I-already-got-paid kind of guy. There were several plays where I saw him watching the play, and not looking to hit anybody. I see and hear all these glowing reports on the guy, but where's the beef? I am starting to understand why Buffalo thought paying Peters was a bad idea.

v. I don't like gambling, but I had to take the bet my friend Paul offered me. I had Philadelphia, straight-up against Washington, with dinner as the stakes, the next time Paul is in Cleveland around Thanksgiving. That was such a lock, it's almost unbelievable that he offered me the bet. And, no, he's actually a Dallas fan, in case you were wondering if he was just a silly Washington homer.

3. I have been something of a Brett Kern apologist, but he wasn't getting it done. I like the message that replacing him sends to the rest of the team. Even a 6-0 team has room for improvement, and everybody needs to handle the job they're hired to do.

4. I was thinking about roles over the weekend, how we all have certain roles to fill in life, and how that's true of football too, which was the context I was thinking in. All good teams are full of role players who understand their roles. As a member of the MHR creative team, I have a role, and so do the rest of the guys. (I don't know if what my role became is what John had in mind when he asked me to join last year, but it is what it is now.) Snark, discussion about offense, courage, media criticism, pop culture, snark, meandering, community building, snark, detailed football analysis, play diagrams, obscure references, lots of (now correctly punctuated) parentheses, righteous indignation, commentary on other teams and games, optimism, prescience in 2009, and snark. That's my role, and that's ST&NO.

I like that the Broncos were constructed and operate with a lot of thought devoted to roles. As a coach, when you sign a veteran like Vonnie Holliday on the eve of the season, and you tell him that he'll be a rotation player, primarily on the field in pass-rush situations, there's a clarity of understanding between you and the player. That clarity is good for business, and it comes through when you see all 53 players knowing their roles, and playing them well.

5. I think MSM NFL reporters are mostly dorks; that's pretty well-established here. (I don't mean the stringers and the local AP guys, per se, I mean the scoop-seeking talking heads.) The most dork-tastic one, in my opinion, is Jay Glazer from Fox, and he's several laps ahead of the field. Here are some recent Glazer tweets:

i'm reporting dallas and d ware have agreed on new 6 yr deal worth up to 13 per yr and nearly 40mil guaranteed. well worth it!

about 9 hours ago from txt

I reported Dan Snyder was urged to give Zorn vote of conf but opted not to. Also didnt wanna speak to press, fearing he wouldn't bite tongue

11:24 AM Oct 25th from web

i'm so tired from spending the whole dang day workin the phones for scoopage i really don't wanna go out. wait, wait... my arm is a twistin

8:28 PM Oct 23rd from txt

Cindy Crawford was here at this party, gotta admit she is one of the my physically beautiful and elegant women I have ever seen! stunning!!!

12:37 AM Oct 23rd from web

dumbest line of our night! Strahan: "There's TWO things i can do: spell, add and subtract." yes, he really said that! my friend is a moron

6:42 PM Oct 19th from txt

Have you ever known a person who is always name-dropping, and was at this party, and saw that celebrity, and is always claiming credit for themselves, because they're so much better than everybody else? That's Jay Glazer. Really, how hard is it to be an MSM NFL reporter? You offer yourself up as a convenient mouthpiece for anybody who wants to use you, and then they use you. You try to make them let you use them once in a while, too.

The Cowboys signed DeMarcus Ware; okay, that's admittedly news. Does it matter if Glazer heard about it 10 minutes before Adam Schefter did? With these guys, it's always about who had information first that everybody was going to have soon anyway. None of these guys is ever finding out anything significant which wasn't meant to come out. The Snyder thing is meaningless. Who cares? Everybody knows he's going to fire Jim Zorn after the season, so how he felt last week, when he didn't make any news, is worthless. It's just something Glazer can claim that he knew, that nobody else did. There's no Woodward or Bernstein covering the NFL, you know?

Since we're all friends here, I just wanted to vent, because Glazer makes me crazy, with his "scoopage," and his name-dropping, and his day-drinking in Beverly Hills. Thanks for listening/reading.

6. From Stuart Scott, trying to sound smart by saying that Donovan McNabb is an H-back when he's lined up outside in the Eagles "Wildcat" look:

H-back means good speed, some heft to him, runs good routes, and can catch the ball.

Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. I don't care for Stuart Scott, and all of his contrived, Berman-esque, shucking and jiving, but I would like him a little better if he'd not talk about things he has no clue about. Just stick to worshipping Michael Jordan, mmmmkay, Stu? And while we're at it, how is Matt Winer the analytical counter-balance to Trent Dilfer, on the ESPN Monday Night 3-man set? Those two with noted other shucker/jiver Scott Van Pelt is a weird trio.

7. Retired for John Elway

8. I had occasion to drive by the new Dallas Cowboys stadium over the weekend, and TV doesn't do justice to how enormous it is. It's a really impressive-looking building from the outside. One thing, though, which I found interesting about my DFW experience, was how few people and cars I saw rocking Cowboys gear. I saw more on Monday morning, which is probably no surprise.

I hope everybody has a good Ravens week. All you get is about 4,200 words this week, because I am out of interesting things to say, and we're on some all-killer, no-filler here, like always. Really, that would be about an 18-20 page term paper in college, so it's still not too shabby. Look for Lighting Up The Scoreboard Saturday afternoon, and follow me on Twitter @TedBartlett905. And join MHR, if you haven't yet. There's no time like now.