SB Nation - Eddie Royal

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 15

TJ Johnson — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 16:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Kyle: Can I be Mr. Orange? Josh: Do your job. Convert this 3rd-and-2!

"You stats shouldn't play so rough. Somebody's gonna start crying."

--Mr. Blonde

Some teams bark all day, little doggy. And some teams bite.

Week 15 was supposed to be an easy caper for the playoff-bound teams in the NFL. Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Indianapolis were all looking to get in, do their job, and get out--unscathed and without too much gun play. Only two of these teams (Philly and Indy) actually escaped with a win.

As usually happens when jobs get botched, the better team isn't done-in by the play of the other team. No, that's rarely how it happens. Usually it's an inside job.

This was certainly the case with your Denver Broncos. While the Oakland Raiders showed they had some ammunition, it was the Broncos that turned on themselves. The Broncos were too careless (missed tackles, bad angles, and missed blocks). They were too cute (a pass to Ryan Clady and a QB sneak on 2nd down). And in the end, there they were - wounded from field goals and gashed from the running game, while JaMarcus Russell walked away with the cash.

Welcome to another week of The Stats That Don't Lie, your weekly rendezvous where we pick our statistical aliases. These are the stats that don't believe in tipping. They are the stats that don't talk, no matter how much you torture them. As always they are Turnovers, Field Position, Time of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

This week's edition is real special, too, and not just because I'm making Reservoir Dogs references. It's because I'm finally going to exhaust Denver's 3rd-down woes. (Note: I tried to link all references for Broncos fans born after 1990).

The Big Picture & 3rd Downs

Usually I put up a graph each week expounding upon the turnover margin in Denver's win/loss. This week, Denver won the turnover battle and lost the game, so it's a good time to look at what has been another key area for Denver (we´ll deal with turnovers shortly). It´s no secret that Denver has struggled on 3rd downs. But just how bad has it been? Not as bad as taking one to the gut, but let´s take a look:

The blue line is the league-average per game since the Broncos' bye week. It has ranged from 37.13% to 37.79%. This is normal. The league average usually runs between 37% and 38%. The orange line is Denver's 3rd-down percentage per game through the bye week as well. In Denver's last 8 games, they've manage to best this league average but one time. In 3 of the 8 games, they didn't even hit 30%. As you'll see in the rankings, they are averaging a paltry 34.53% per game.

Clearly, this is a huge problem. Consider the 15-week average per game of the playoff teams if the season were to end today, in addition to the four biggest threats to Denver's wild-card spot.

Indianapolis: 51.61%
San Diego: 41.81%
New England: 42.45%
Cincinnati: 41.71%
Baltimore: 40.08%
Denver: 34.53%
Jacksonville: 43.08%
PIttsburgh: 39.11%
Miami: 47.10%
Tennessee: 40.00%

Someone on this list doesn't have a cool-sounding 3rd-down rate, and we are not talking about the Colts. Even though the Broncos are within one standard deviation (about 6%) from the mean of 37.71%, the Broncos are fortunate that their defense has produced some timely turnovers this year. One might even wonder how a team with such a bad 3rd-down percentage is in the position of making the playoffs. For now, let's chalk it up to orange-and-blue leprechauns and move on.

3rd Downs - Hooked On a Feeling

The real question is, "Why have the Broncos done so poorly on 3rd downs all year long?" Stats can only do so much of the heavy lifting, but we'll give it a shot, anyway.

Many have postulated that it's the offensive line, the play calling, or Knowshon Moreno himself. Some view Peyton Hillis as the bionic man. Perhaps he should be getting more carries. Or some want to blame a certain bad ass with the finest neck beard this side of the Mississippi. I'm hearing none of it.

I have a different theory. It's less complex. And it doesn't require pointing fingers.

Simply, it's this team's first experience with "Erhardt-Perkins" offense. As Tom Brady has repeatedly alluded, getting used to this complex offensive system, installed with the Patriots by Charlie Weis, takes at least two years to get used to, if not more. But let's not take Brady's word for it, let's look at the numbers.

We simply need to go back to the 2000 Patriots, when Weis installed the offense and look at the Patriots' 3rd-down conversion rate between 2000 and 2001. In 2000, the Patriots were 35% on 3rd downs. In 2001, that number jumped 6% to 41%. Now, there is one big difference between 2000 and 2001. And that's Tom Brady at quarterback. But it was his second year in the system, and I don't believe Brady's numbers would have been the same had he had that first year as a rookie to learn Weis's system.

The Football Outsiders, who many stats geeks worship like I do Pam Grier, would agree. They've had a theory going about 3rd downs for several years:

Teams which are strong on first and second down, but weak on third down, will tend to improve the following year...over time, a team will play as well in those situations as it does in other situations, which will bring the overall offense or defense in line with the offense and defense on first and second down.

This year Denver has rushed for 977 yards on 1st down, good for 4th-best in the league in that category. Yet, on 3rd down, we've seen their struggles. If the Football Outsiders' theory is correct (it has been over the last 7 years) and history repeats itself with the Broncos' learning curve with respect to the "Erhardt-Perkins" system, we are looking at a team next year which is poised to improve drastically in 3rd-down efficiency. Take it to the bank.

Stuck in the Middle With You on 3rd-and-Short

Since we are beating the 3rd-down horse, it's also useful to bring up the play calling on 3rd and short. A lot of fans have been lamenting the Broncos' struggle on 3rd and short and hoping the team would pass more often. While this is completely understandable, just know that the percentages actually favor running in these situations--by a good margin. Once again, I present to you one of the little gems from the Football Outsiders:

On average, passing will always gain more yardage than running, with one very important exception: when a team is just one or two yards away from a new set of downs or the goal line. On third-and-1, a run will convert for a new set of downs 36 percent more often than a pass. Expand that to all third or fourth downs with 1-2 yards to go, and the run is successful 40 percent more often. With these percentages, the possibility of a long gain with a pass is not worth the tradeoff of an incomplete that kills a drive...

...Teams pass roughly 60 percent of the time on third-and-2 even though runs in that situation convert 20 percent more often than passes. They pass 68 percent of the time on fourth-and-2 even though runs in that situation convert twice as often as passes.

As bad as Denver has been in short-yardage situations this year on 3rd and 4th down, it's still not swimming upstream against these percentages. And if you don't think McDaniels knows the percentages, you are fooling yourself. Still want more proof? Consider that on 3rd-and-3 (or less):

Kyle Orton is 7 out of 15 passing (54%)

Knowshon Moreno is 10 out of 15 rushing (67%)

Moreno just happens to be converting on 3rd-and-3 (or less) about 24% more often than when Orton throws in the same situation. This is slightly higher than the Football Outsiders would estimate, but we are dealing with a relatively small sample size. However, the point is still valid. McDaniels is generally making the right call when he continues to run the ball on third and short.

For those that believe Peyton Hillis is Charles Bronson, ask yourself if he could have done any better than 10 out of 15? If you can look yourself in the mirror with any seriousness and answer, "yes," than we'll just have to act like professionals. Maurice Jones-Drew has picked up 17 out of 22 (77%), so you'd be putting Hillis in that kind of company. Given that Hillis has only averaged 3.4 in his 5 carries this year up the middle, I'm skeptical. Moreno has had 62 carries up the middle and averages 3.7.

The Offensive Line - Hold It...A Little Big Longer

If you want to point to the offensive line and losing Ryan Harris, then we've got some common ground. This loss is a lot bigger problem than McDaniels would like you to believe. Here is what Denver was averaging per carry on the ground (pre-Oakland) through 14 weeks:

Left End Left Tackle Left Guard Middle Left Middle Right Right Guard Right Tackle Right End

4.2 4.6 5.2 3.6 3.4 4.4 5.5 4.7

If you were scouting the Broncos and you saw these numbers, it would become clear to you very quickly that the strength of this offensive line was on the right side of the ball in general and on the outside edges--at least with respect to running. It's even clearer when you look at the right-end runs and left-end runs, because Daniel Graham is shifting in the formation and these numbers are directly related to him. If the left side of the line were as good as the right, you would expect the numbers on the right-end to be similar to those on the left-end. This isn't a knock on Ryan Clady--far from it if you look at the numbers off left tackle. It's simply a recognition of the importance of Ryan Harris (and also Polumbus, who has played well in the running game).

This is data a casual fan comprehends, but it is also backed up by a short-yardage asssessment as in BShrout's impressive analysis here. In addition, it's backed up by slightly more complex statistics as well, as witnessed by Jeremy Bolander's excellent post last week, in which he applies Sharpe Ratios to running plays behind each of Denver's offensive linemen. Bolander cleverly noted the reward gained (represented by the standard deviation) in-and-above a "safe" play of a zero yard gain:

...the ratios for running behind Weigmann, Hochstein/Hamilton are generally quite poor, at 0.14 and -0.18. Clady is better, clocking in at .300375 while Kuper dominates in short yardage at 1.78885. Too often, however, the one cut has been designed to bend back away from Kuper's stellar blocking. When the blocking scheme is more straight ahead, we seem to take advantage of his side more.

This certainly correlates to a general strategy of Denver being more effective when running to the right side.

When taken as a whole, all of this would suggest that Denver is going to continue to struggle a bit on 3rd downs. The quarterbacks and receivers continue to learn the complex "Erhardt-Perkins" scheme, and the absence of Harris and the play of the offensive line, while it hasn't been horrendous, has shown consistency issues. As other teams continue their run slants, rush blitzes, and stacking the line of scrimmage, (as both the Raiders and Colts did), look for McDaniels to counter with strategies like play action.

Team Rankings:

Here's where the Broncos stack up against the rest of the league after Week 15. As always, remember these are averages/game (in my mind a better measure than aggregate numbers):

While Denver continues its spiral on 3rd downs (the St. Louis Rams rank just below them), they still rank high in both giveaways (which I consistently label "turnovers") and turnover margin per game. Don't turn the ball over. Play good defense, capitalize on the mistakes of the other team. This was, is, and will continue to be their ticket to winning.

Given Denver's ranking in average starting field position (28.98-yard line) per game, I was pleasantly surprised in the Oakland game to see Kenny McKinley back returning. I thought he showed a great burst and quickness that will only get better. Although I had been clamoring for Alphonso Smith, I'll take what I can get. I was never sold that Eddie Royal was the longterm answer. Not because he wasn't capable, but because we'll never see another Tim Brown in this league. I think letting Royal be a receiver is the right move. And, outside of the San Diego game, the numbers weren't eye-popping (23.9 yards/kick). Royal was being asked to do too many things. When you've got jokers to your left and Raiders to the right, you need a guy who is focused on returns and rested between each series.

There's not much to say about Denver's time of possession other than they are sitting right at the league average.

From the rankings above, one team you must absolutely love is the Green Bay Packers, even after their loss to the Steelers in Week 15. I know, I know, the Steelers threw the ball all over the yard on them. But Aaron Rodgers is as underrated as Jay Cutler is overrated. They rank 1st in turnover margin, 2nd in giveaways, 1st in field position, 4th in time of possession, and 5th in 3rd-down efficiency. While the Packers are no Foxy Brown, they are still a whole lot of playoff team. I continue to think that the Packers can play with the Saints and Vikings, and I would personally love to see Rodgers send Favre back to retirement. If that makes me a Favre hater, then okay, but I prefer to think of it more like I am a hater of the Mainstream Media crush that exists for so-called "gunslingers." I mean, it's not like the the guy is taking anyone on a magic carpet ride with his arm this year anyway.

The teams that are the most dangerous from these rankings are the teams that rank high in both turnover margin and 3rd-down efficiency, because once the playoffs start, you need a team that at once doesn't make errors and which capitalizes on errors. And a team that can "make plays," which is just code for converting on 3rd downs. Right now, I would say this list includes, in no particular order:

Indianapolis
San Diego
Green Bay
Minnesota
New Orleans
New England
Cincinnati

Each of these teams is in the top ten in both categories, although the Chargers seem to have the most momentum of the whole bunch, as much as it pains me to say it.

Last week a few of you pointed out that perhaps I should finally let up on Jay Cutler as he continues his assault on history. I thought about it for one Sunday, but before I could say "Like a Virgin," "True Blue," or "Borderline," Culter had thrown 25 picks for the year. T his is the most in NFL history for a non-rookie quarterback in his first year with a new team. That's a strange stat indeed. Suffice to say the guy is to interceptions as a Tarantino movie is to F-Bombs. You lose count 20 minutes in.

Imagine how bad it would be if the Bears didn't rank 5th in average starting field position. Actually, it might have worked out better for the Bears if they didn't rank so high because then Cutler wouldn't begin so close to the red zone.

Week 15 - The Games

Let's start where we always begin, with the Broncos-Raiders game Since I was a big advocate two days ago of simply forgetting the game, I won't say too much, except that given the Raiders turned the ball over twice, it would appear that Denver would have won this game. But, if you read these ramblings columns on a weekly basis, you know I am a big "context" guy. Yes, turnovers are bad. Yes, if you are plus-1 in turnover margin, the stats say you'll win about 70% of the time. Get to plus-2 and you're at 80%. Yes, all of this is true. However, you also know that turnovers committed early in a game can be overcome--even by a decade of washed-up first-round draft picks known as the Oakland Raiders. Oakland committed one of its turnovers on its 2nd drive (1st quarter) and the other on its 8th (3rd quarter). But they had 12 drives in the game with which to work.

And what did Denver do with these two turnovers? They put up 10 points off of them. And yet they still did not win. This is what happens when you crawl around at 26% on 3rd downs. Not even Lee Marvin could get you out of that one.

If you want another interesting stat that hasn't received any attention from the Denver game, it's the following: on Oakland's scoring drives, they ran the ball 13 times for a total of 94 yards. This represents an average of 7.2 yards per carry, which is almost what Oakland's average was for the entire game running the ball. But the standard deviation of this data set was 8.8 yards. This is my smarty-pants way of saying that the Raiders running game was feast or famine. They had a lot of 1- and 3-yard carries, but also several carries over 20 yards.

Everyone is commenting on the New Orleans-Dallas game, so I might as well throw in my two cents. New Orleans had 11 drives in the game. They committed turnovers on 3 of them. That left them with 8 drives. And the Cowboys got out to a big lead, so in the 2nd half they ran the ball effectively and killed the clock, which led to their domination of the time of possession. Did I mention that Drew Brees was 14% on 3rd down? Given that New Orleans is usually at 43% on 3rd downs, this was quite a feat. Dallas got pressure, and they got it with their front 4.

Two other games I briefly want to mention. First, the Jags-Indy game. Two weeks ago, I developed a profile of what a Colts loss would look like, based on their losses since 2005. In Week 15, the Jacksonville Jaguars almost matched that profile. They ran, and ran, and ran, rushing 34 times in the game. They tried their very best to keep Peyton Manning off the field. They matched the Colts step for step on 3rd down. And what happened? Oh, just a 93-yard kickoff return from the Colts for a touchdown. Manning lives to fight another day.

The second game I wanted to point out is the Eagles-Niners game - if for nothing else, to simply point out that San Francisco was 0% in 3rd-down efficiency. The Niners also turned the ball over 4 times. But somehow they avoided the blowout and made a game of it. They even managed an average of 5.9 yards per rush against the Eagles. The Eagles can be beaten.

The Summaries

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

7 teams had 0 turnovers. 5 won (71%); For the season, 67/87 (77%)
8 teams had 1 turnover. 4 won (50%); For the season, 75/129 (58%)
7 teams had 2 turnovers. 5 won (71%); For the season, 56/122 (46%)
6 teams had 3 turnovers. 2 won (33%); For the season, 22/67 (33%)
2 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 4/29 (14%)
2 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 0/14 (0%)

Week 15 - Big Picture

The team that won the turnover battle (removing ties) won 8 of 11 games played (73%)
5 games were tied in the turnover battle.
The team that won the time of possession battle won 11 of the 16 games played (69%).
The team that had better third-down efficiency won 13 of the 16 games played (81%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 7 of the 16 games played (44%).
There were 4 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In all 4, the same team won on the scoreboard (100%).
The winning teams this week averaged 1.25 turnovers, 31:32 in time of possession, 44.32% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 30.82-yard line.

Top 5 in Week 15:

Top 5 in giveaways: 7 Teams Tied with 0.
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.Carolina 2.Dallas 3.Jacksonville 4.Pittsburgh 5.Cleveland

Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.Giants 2.Indy 3.Jacksonville 4.Green Bay 5.Dallas/Saint Louis
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.Baltimore 2.Cleveland 3.Tampa Bay 4.Buffalo 5.Giants

Running Totals, Season (through 15 weeks):

224 games have been played this season
75.80% (or 141/186) were won by the team with less turnovers (removing ties)
38 games were tied in the turnover battle
66.52% with a better time of possession
68.75% by the team who won on 3rd down
69.64% by the team that won the field-position battle.

15-week League Averages:

15-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.71

15-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:10 (thanks to OT games)

15-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.79%

15-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.91-yard line

The Look Ahead

Looking ahead to Philadelphia, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd-Down Efficiency

Denver 1.36 30:03 29.98 34.53%

Philadelphia 1.36 28:20 31.17 37.90%

The teams are even on turnovers. The good news is that Philadelphia's time-of-possession stat tells you one important thing about this game. The Eagles are a passing team. This plays into Denver's strength. It's also encouraging that as a passing team, the Eagles' 3rd-down-conversion percentage isn't higher. This again bodes well for Denver, especially if Denver can shut down DeSean Jackson on special teams.

The traditional thinking is that home field advantage adds about 3 extra points of value. In this game, I'd also remove that off the top because this is a homecoming for Brian Dawkins. With the kind of love that city has for BDawk, you might as well add three points for the visitors. Dawkins is going to put the lime in the coconut and drink em both together after this win. Ramblers, start ramblin'.

Hail, Brian Dawkins!!

Last stat: 99.99% (percentage chance that they would let Brian Dawkins have the alias Mr. Black, without fighting).

Some Broncos thoughts on this Black (and Silver) Monday

John Bena — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 16:47:28 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

2 days ago: Oakland Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell (2) throws a pass during the fourth quarter as Denver Broncos' Robert Ayers, left, applies pressure during an NFL football game in Denver on Sunday, Dec. 20, 2009. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

Browse more photos »

Let's face it, yesterday's loss was painful. For me, it conjured up thoughts of a favorite movie quote(s) of mine, from The Princess Bride -

Prince Humperdinck: First things first, to the death.

Westley: No. To the pain.

Prince Humperdinck: I don't think I'm quite familiar with that phrase.

Westley: I'll explain and I'll use small words so that you'll be sure to understand, you warthog faced buffoon.

Prince Humperdinck: That may be the first time in my life a man has dared insult me.

Westley: It won't be the last. To the pain means the first thing you will lose will be your feet below the ankles. Then your hands at the wrists. Next your nose.

Prince Humperdinck: And then my tongue I suppose, I killed you too quickly the last time. A mistake I don't mean to duplicate tonight.

Westley: I wasn't finished. The next thing you will lose will be your left eye followed by your right.

Prince Humperdinck: And then my ears, I understand let's get on with it.

Westley: WRONG. Your ears you keep and I'll tell you why. So that every shriek of every child at seeing your hideousness will be yours to cherish. Every babe that weeps at your approach, every woman who cries out, "Dear God! What is that thing," will echo in your perfect ears. That is what to the pain means. It means I leave you in anguish, wallowing in freakish misery forever.

Prince Humperdinck: I think you're bluffing.

Westley: It's possible, Pig, I might be bluffing. It's conceivable, you miserable, vomitous mass, that I'm only lying here because I lack the strength to stand. But, then again... perhaps I have the strength after all.

[slowly rises and points sword directly at the prince]

Westley: DROP... YOUR... SWORD!

Prince Humperdinck: [Humperdinck's mouth hangs open, drops sword to floor]

That pretty much summed it up for me. I have always been about solutions, however, never taking long to sulk in my own pity. The Broncos are in a very precarious position with two games to go, one that they have brought upon themselves. Again. As I drove to work this morning several thoughts were swirling in my head, similar to the Sugar Plums we all will see a few nights from now.

We live in a culture that loves to blame. Anytime there is failure, we must find out whose fault it is and seek their remorse lest we drag them over the coals. The situation the Broncos find themselves in is no different. And there is plenty of blame to go around, for sure.

Josh McDaniels will get his share. Rightfully so, since he is the Head Coach, the leader of the team and the buck obviously stops with him. Whether it be play-calling, personnel decisions (Peyton Hillis-backers, that's for you), or game management, people have taken McDaniels to task for all of it. That's how it goes in the NFL - win and you are a genius; lose and, well, people call you something much less affectionate.

Me? I choose the harder route. The 53 men in that locker room need to take a look in the mirror. Actually, I'll get a bit more specific. Football is about players, not coaches - we all know that. Players either execute or they don't, make plays or they don't. We sit here in late December, with a nagging Deja-Vu feeling, not because of our coach, but because of the players - specifically the same players that have gone through this before.

The Broncos sit on the cusp of another December breakdown and the only ones that can stop it are the men in the locker room.

It is time for D.J. Williams and Champ Bailey, the mainstays of the Broncos defense the past four years to stand up and say, "NOT AGAIN". Yeah, I know D.J. and Champ are beloved, but they have also been part of the problem the past four years. They now need to be part of the solution.

I'm also talking to you - Kenny Peterson, Marcus Thomas, Wesley Woodyard, Elvis Dumervil - and every other player that was part of the defense in 2008, that was part of the collapse, it is time for you to stand up and say, "NOT THIS TIME".

I'm not going to forgive the offense, either. Someone needs to make a play - Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokley, Daniel Graham, Tony Scheffler - someone needs to step up these next two weeks and say, "NOT THIS YEAR". Yes, Marshall has been huge and Stokley seemingly makes every big play he is given the opportunity to make, but all that matters now is the next two weeks - and seemingly the two wins that would assure the Broncos a post-season berth.

Coaches coach, players play. It is easy to blame the coaches because it isn't their name on the back of the jerseys we buy, not their numbers we memorize. It is the players that get the credit, and it is the 53 men in that locker room, specifically the 23 players that were part of the Denver Broncos in 2008, that need to step up and decide the fate of the 2009 version.

Again, a movie quote, this time from Terminator 2 -

The Future Is Not Set, There Is No Fate But What We Make For Ourselves.

The past is just that, the past, and it holds no bearing on the future. The Broncos need to believe this.

The Broncos in the Playoffs - Do They Deserve It? - This has been a popular quote the past couple of days. It has sparked much debate in the community, though it shouldn't. Like everything, there are literal and figurative meanings. The Broncos' loss to the Raiders was inexcusable from a fan's perspective - I hate losing home games to any divisional opponent - and thus makes this team undeserving of post-season glory - figuratively.

Literally, the NFL playoffs are the toughest tournament to gain access to - in my opinion. Sure, baseball is pretty tough as well, but the financial system in baseball, along with the watering down of talent because of the number of teams, makes it much easier to simply buy your way in. Not that easy in the NFL.

It is a long season, and any team that EARNS its way into the post-season certainly deserves to be there, regardless of the number, or types of losses on its resume. We all know this, but fans are emotional and we let those emotions dictate our thoughts sometimes. No harm, no foul.

The Broncos did not deserve to beat the Raiders yesterday - that is true, but if they do what it takes and make the post-season in 2009 they wll have certainly earned that right and deserve to be there - just as they would earn the right to miss the post-season should they miss out...again.

Where Games are Won and Lost - I think we all know the answer to this old saying - in the trenches. Before the season we all knew the Broncos were thin on the offensive and defensive lines. Josh McDaniels knew it too - he drafted Seth Olsen and then, during Training Camp, traded for Russ Hochstein. The team also rebuilt the defensive backfield - an asset to any defensive line - and brought in Ronald Fields and Vonnie Holliday to help. Should we be so surprised that the Broncos are struggling on both lines, especially against physical opponents?

No, but it doesn't make it any easier to watch. Like it or not, the talent level on this team has been eroding for some time. I've been talking about it for a couple years now - the failures in the Draft in 2003, 2004, 2005, etc. have forced the team to start undrafted free agents and outcasts from around the League to make up for it. It is going to take time for that talent pool to be replaced. It has left the Broncos with little depth, and when injuries do occur - like the one to Ryan Harris, or age becomes a factor - Ben Hamilton - it leaves you with little direction to move.

We can blame Knowshon Moreno, or the lack of Peyton Hillis, for the Broncos' problems in short-yardage situations, but the truth is, 3rd- and 4th-and-short/goal is all about will, desire, and want. A little beef helps too, and right now the Broncos simply don't have enough beef to get it done - especially along the interior of the O-Line.

A Bit More On Knowshon - Knowshon Moreno has talent - no doubt about it. But right now, the kid is thinking way too much. We all know the Josh McDaniels playbook is large, and the running backs have a lot of responsibility in McDaniels' offensive scheme. Moreno looks like a player that is thinking instead of reacting, suicide in the fast-paced NFL.

That is the reason Moreno looks great in the 1st Quarter - 7 carries, 39 yards yesterday, then seems to fade. He gets the reps all week, has the game plan down pat, but when adjustments are made in-game, seems to struggle - he stops trusting his eyes, his blocks, his assignments, and starts to think. Great running backs react - right now, Knowshon is not reacting.

Moreno is a young guy, and you hope it comes with time, but right now Knowshon is suffering a bit from a lack of confidence. While he certainly isn't having a Clinton Portis-type rookie season, I still have high hopes.

All this Doom and Gloom, but... - The Broncos still control their own fate. Win in Philly and at home against Kansas City and the Broncos are in. I cautioned everyone a couple weeks ago and I will say it again - don't give any team wins this time of season. Don't look at the schedule and assume Baltimore, or Pittsburgh or anyone will win this game, or lose that game. The pressure is on right now and that affects teams and coaches differently. Play the games and see what happens. For the Broncos, that means win this week and next. You can't ask for more than what the Broncos have in front of them - to control their future - Read the quote above.

Go BRONCOS!

Oakland Raiders Postgame Recap: Raiders 20, Broncos 19

Rated-R Superstar — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 00:43:37 -0000

Yes, Charlie Frye was the guy going into this one. No, he wasn't the last one standing. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

It thankfully wasn't JaMarcus Russell getting the start under center. Instead, it was Charlie Frye getting the start at quarterback for the Oakland Raiders today as they hoped to put a minor dent into the the Denver Broncos' playoff hopes. Little did we know that both Russell and Frye would play a role in deciding the outcome of today's game. The Raiders (4-9) and the Broncos (8-5) met earlier this year in Oakland in which Denver prevailed convincingly. Last year in Denver, however, it was Oakland who came away with a shocking 31-10 victory. This time around, let's see how the two bitter rivals went at each other. Anything can happen in a rivalry game between two original AFL franchises.

Michael Bush made his only carry in the first quarter worth an important six points. [via a.espncdn.com]

First Quarter: The Broncos began the game kicking it off to the Raiders. Not surprisingly, the ineffective Gary Russell was returning kicks. He took a knee, though, and the kick into the end zone actually benefited us. Charlie Frye, a 6-14 record as a starter, took the field and threw an incomplete pass on the first play. Out of the power-I, Justin Fargas gained a few yards on the next play. Needing seven yards, a six-yard pass to Chaz Schilens brought out the punt team. Shane Lechler only managed a weak 45-yard punt right to Eddie Royal which was returned for not too many yards. On first down, the rookie out of Georgia by the name of Knowshon Moreno carried it to the right side and was tackled by Nnamdi Asomugha. On second down, Greg Ellis almost got to Kyle Orton and forced an incomplete pass off the deflection. A false start penalty on tight Daniel Graham set Denver back some more, and they needed 12 yards on third down. It didn't matter as Royal picked up more than enough to convert it. Utilizing the running backs effectively -- particularly Knowshon Moreno with just a little dash of Correll Buckhalter -- allowed the Broncos to move down the field nicely. A third down stop inside the 10 by the Raiders defense forced a chip shot field goal by Matt Prater. The Broncos had taken the early 3-0 lead. The second possession started with a four-yard pass from Frye to Schilens. A three-yard run by Darren McFadden made it a very, very manageable third down. The Broncos out of the blitz and despite being in a shot gun, Frye hurried the throw. It wasn't much a throw. The ball just sort of floated out there and Champ Bailey grabbed it easily out of the air. On Denver's first play on their next possession, Brandon Marshall made a 24-yard catch after running his route after being put in motion. Two plays later, the Broncos ran a screen to Ryan Clady which cost them yards thanks to a very nice tackle by Asomugha. A confusing penalty pushed the Broncos back to the 17 yard line. Kyle Orton was sacked by rookie Matt Shaughnessy on the next play, and then a screen play to Eddie Royal was stopped by Stanford Routt and company on the right side. Another Matt Prater field goal -- this one extra "boomy" -- gave Denver a 6-0 lead with just over four minutes to play in the first quarter. A dumb intentional grounding penalty cost the Raiders 15 yards and a down. Kenny Peterson squashed Fargas behind the line of scrimmage and it become third down and impossible. Another blah run and it was punt time once again. A 64-yard punt by Lechler, all of which came by of the leg, was returned for a mediocre gain by Kenny McKinley. Moreno continued to own us on the ground with a couple of more nice carries. A third down blitz forced an incomplete pass on coverage by, yes, Chris Johnson! Mitch Berger, who seem as if has been punting forever, booted a smashing 12-yard punt out of bounds. Oakland started at their own 34 yard line and Charlie Frye shocked the crowd with a 26-yard scamper on the left side after a play fake. That exciting play capped the first quarter at Invesco Field at Mile High.

Sebastian Janikowski dropped in a 54-yard field goal as he routinely does. [via a.espncdn.com]

Second Quarter: The second quarter began with Frye looking deep for Louis Murphy; however, it was incomplete although an illegal contact penalty gave the Raiders five free yards. Shortly, third down and long followed. A nice crossing pattern to Johnnie Lee Higgins picked up 12 yards and the first down as well. Then boom, I don't even know what just happened! Michael Bush, on his first carry of the game, goes 23 yards and in for the score. It's his first touchdown in nine games and a Sebastian Janikowski extra point gave Oakland a 7-6 lead early in the second quarter. Denver's next possession ended up with a punt after a first down. Mike Mitchell knocked down Orton after bringing the blitz on third down. Higgins returned the punt for a decent gain and the Raiders had good field position. After some plays, Elvis Dumervil grabbed Charlie Frye's facemask and was called for a roughing the passer penalty. A 15-yard penalty gave Oakland the ball at their own 48. A couple of run plays later made it third and manageable for Frye and company. Chased out of the pocket, Frye threw off of his back foot and hit Murphy on the right side. It was a great effort by both parties. Josh McDaniels threw out the challenge flag, but it only cost him a timeout in the end. The ruling on the field stood as originally called and Oakland had a first down at Denver's 41 yard line. McFadden picked up three yards on a carry to the left side as we Raider fans collectively as a bunch were wondering where Michael Bush was. Anyway, the game must go on. A one-yard pass from Frye to Luke Lawton on a play-action made it third down and six yards to go. Ah, now Bush is in the backfield. Out of the shot gun, Frye fired down the field to Schilens. It appeared as if Schilens had come down with it, but Denver's Tony Carter wouldn't give up on the play and made a nice play on the ball. Janikowski squeaked in a field goal to give the Raiders had a 10-6 lead over the Broncos. Denver opened up their next drive with what's been working well and that's been Knowshon Moreno's legs. A six-yard carry was all very well, but then Tyvon Branch blew the next one up in the backfield. An incomplete pass intended for LaMont Jordan set up a punt and a bunch of booing from the home crowd. A punt gave it back to Oakland, but it backed them up 15 yards after the Higgins return because of an illegal block in the back penalty on Sam Williams. According to commentator Steve Tasker, a former special teams specialist, claims there was no illegal block in the back. It didn't matter what he thought, however. A timeout was burned by Frye before the first play was run. Brandon Myers, filling in for the injured Zach Miller, made his first catch of the game for a decent gain. Michael Bush finally got a carry after his 23-yard touchdown in the first quarter and it was good enough for a first down. Frye was having communication problems with his helmet, so he ran over to the sidelines to get the play yelled at him. Andra Davis almost picked off Frye on the next play. Whew, that was close. Another near-turnover happened on the next play as Bush lost it; however, left tackle Mario Henderson was able to pick it up. A third down draw to Bush goes for 13 yards and Denver's defense had no idea. A solid run by McFadden took us to the two-minute warning. In good position for points, the Raiders looked to forge ahead some more. A nice throw from Frye to Murphy picked up a good chunk of yards and yet another 13-yard run by Bush took it to Denver's 16 yard line. Tony Stewart got into the act a few plays later with his first catch of the game. The Broncos got their stop on third down and the Raiders were confined to just three points. Janikowski booted through his second field goal of the day and Oakland had a 13-6 lead over Denver. Using up 22 seconds, the Broncos had three incomplete passes and then a short little pass over the middle to Jabar Gaffney. Tom Cable used his final timeout and forced the Broncos to at least bring out the punting unit. A 45-yard punt ended the half with Oakland on top over Denver by a 13-6 score. Oh, but wait as there was a penalty and so the Raiders got the chance to run one more play. A nice run for McFadden took us to halftime.

Honoring Chris Henry before the game, Brandon Marshall scored a touchdown during it. [via a.espncdn.com]

Third Quarter: The Broncos started the second half with the ball. A touchback by Janikowski plated Denver at their own 20. After picking up a first down, Kirk Morrison made a nice tackle in the open field to bring up a third down for the Broncos. Orton fired and completed it to Brandon Stokley as he, along with Tony Scheffler, made his first catch of the game on the opening drive of the second half. A 13-yard run by LaMont Jordan followed that as Hiram Eugene knocked him out of bounds. The Denver offense appeared to be firing on all cylinders as Orton hooked up with Eddie Royal in the middle of the field. A sense of urgency indeed from the Broncos offense, Gus Johnson. A big third down and long Denver could not convert thanks to a heavy blitz and great coverage by Chris Johnson. Matt Prater banged through his field third goal of the game and Oakland maintained their lead, with it now standing at 13-9. Oakland had the ball back and Frye hit Bush in the flat for a nice gain on the left side to pick up a first down. A toss to McFadden on the right side -- hey, McFadden in space -- picked up good yardage and even a first down in the process. Shaken up on the play was Champ Bailey, and he had to leave the game. A promising drive turned sour, however, with McFadden getting the ball stripped. Denver had it at midfield. A struggling offense has gained momentum just like that. On the first play, though, Asomugha blew it up in the backfield as he dropped Moreno for a four-yard loss. A stupid penalty on the other side of the field went against Stanford Routt and a third down and 11 turned into an automatic first down. A one-handed grab by Brandon Marshall gave the Broncos a first down and then he made another play all the way down to the Raiders' 19 yard line. Denver really took advantage of Marshall in this quarter when Asomugha wasn't on him. On a scamper by Kyle Orton, Tommy Kelly was down on the field with an injury. Some plays later, Orton hooked up with Marshall as Brandon was a yard deep in the end zone against a zone defense. Following that play, a fight occurred. I didn't see who exactly was involved, but it looked like Richard Seymour against some offensive linemen from Denver. Anyway, Denver cashed in on the McFadden fumble and the Broncos had scored 10 straight points to take a 16-13 lead late in the third quarter. Gary Russell finally got a chance to return a kick and it was actually a good one; however, penalty flag totally negated that one. It seems like the game is totally spiraling out now. A couple of sweet runs by Michael Bush -- including one of the 40-yard variety -- took the ball down to the 31 yard line of Denver's. Then, Darren McFadden had a huge run of his own that went for 28 yards on the left side. After a pair of one-yard Bush runs, the Raiders were still on the outside looking in with 28 seconds to go in the third quarter. On third down and needing a yard, another carry for Bush went nowhere but instead backwards. That ended the third quarter.

Yes, this is the correct reaction after JaMarcus Russell's performance. [via a.espncdn.com]

Fourth Quarter: To start the quarter, the Raiders were looking for the end zone. On fourth down, Cable elected to go for it. A fake dive and pitch to McFadden went for two yards, but was ultimately a yard short. Denver took over at their own one yard line. The defense stood firm, however, and Berger booted it to Higgins. A nice punt, Higgins backpedaled and was able to return it for some yards to his own 40 yard line. Carries by McFadden, Bush and then Bush again picked up a first down for the Raiders as they moved into Broncos territory. Frye dropped back to pass and was totally rocked by Andra Davis. Trying to get up to his feet under his own power, Frye just could not due to the impact of the hit. The trainers came onto the field and so, yes, JaMarcus Russell marched onto the field as we hung our heads. Where was J.P. Losman? An illegal shift penalty pinned the Raiders back even further. A run by Bush was followed up by a timeout. Let's have a recap within the recap for a second. Russell comes in and we have two men in motion at the same time, a weak run to the left side and then a timeout. Alright, so the run play wasn't on him. Still, you see what it's like with Russell in the game at quarterback instead of right tackle. Well, the next pass was totally short intended for Murphy and a five-yard spiking penalty on Louis brought out Lechler for a punt. The Broncos came out running it with Moreno and Jordan, and the Raiders are going to need a stop somehow to get the offense back out there. On the next play, a slant to Stokley went all the down inside he five as he beat Routt on that play. A horse collar penalty on Routt was tacked on. There was a bit of a delay afterward with some laser trouble in the crowd, but the game was continued. A stop on third down on the ground and a fourth down stop through the air held Denver to a field goal. After lasers and guys losing their pants, we had a bit of a scrummage after the field goal. It's all going down today. Just under six minutes remained with the Broncos on top, 19-13. A run by Bush and a four-yard reception by Schilens made it a very manageable third down for Russell. A low ball to Bush, that should have been caught, was dropped by Bush. The defense did their part, largely due to the sack, and Oakland was getting the ball back after the Denver punt. After a Higgins return, the Raiders had it at their own 38 yard line with still 3:29 to play. Russell was still the quarterback. On the first play, Cooper Carlisle had to scoop up a Russell fumble. God, we're doomed. Oh, but a flag on the next play on Andre Goodman gave the Raiders the ball in Broncos territory. A pass interference was rightfully called and new life had been granted. On second down, Russell was knocked out of the game. It's up to quarterback number three -- J.P. "Does He Even Know a Play?" Losman -- to save us now. After one incomplete pass by Losman, Russell was back in there. On fourth down, he fired it over the middle and it was caught by Tony Stewart who had enough for a first down. That took us to the two-minute warning. The first play out of it, Russell hit Stewart for nine yards. Following that, he found Schilens at the 10 yard line. Following an incomplete pass, an illegal contact penalty gave the Raiders an automatic first down at the five. There were 45 seconds to go in the game. Out of the shot gun, right tackle Cornell Green had a false start. That's pretty inexcusable. Still, it was a first down. Out of the shot gun, Russell dropped back to pass and has his arm hit as he he threw. The ball went out of bounds to the right. Then, on the next play, the impossible happened. Russell fires and it's caught by Chaz Schilens, his favorite target. With 35 seconds to go, the Broncos had just one timeout remaining. McKinley brought out the kick to the 21 yard line. Greg Ellis breaks through on the first play and sacks Kyle Orton while forcing a fumble in the meantime. After a second down incomplete pass, a deep ball to Brandon Marshall was broken up thanks to a huge hit from Michael Huff. A fourth down pass was completed to Brandon Stokley with about eight seconds to go; however, with no timeouts, Denver couldn't stop the clock. The game was over the Raiders had prevailed, 20-19, on the road over the Broncos.

The caption goes right here. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

The Report Card: I'll give grades to the pass offense, rush offense, pass defense, rush defense and special teams. Of course, you're welcome to give your own grades in the comments.

Pass Offense: D+ -- When you only complete less than 50 percent of your passes and you throw for 115 yards with an interception, you don't even deserve a "D+" grade; however, when you lead your team down the field like that to win the game, there's a curve involved. I think this is even a little generous.
Rush Offense: A -- Michael Bush had a tremendous day on the ground and Darren McFadden was certainly very good himself despite just 12 carries. Overall, a touchdown to go along with a 7.1 yards per carry average is very nice. Getting that touchdown in the third quarter maybe would've bumped it up to an "A+" grade, but we'll take this one every single time out.
Pass Defense: B -- Brandon Marshall was contained to a degree and that's all you can really ask for against a great wide receiver. Nnamdi Asomugha covered him well, but Stanford Routt and Chris Johnson didn't. Overall, the heat was on Kyle Orton enough to make him uncomfortable back there at times.
Rush Defense: A- -- A bad start, yes, but the rush defense really put the clamps down. LaMont Jordan had a nice average, but Knowshon Moreno did absolutely nothing in the second half. This was probably our best game as a unit as far as the opposition's ground game goes.
Special Teams: B -- Maybe not a great return pursuit a few times and Lechler didn't have his best day, but overall, it was a really good effort. Gary Russell didn't get a chance to return too many, but Johnnie Lee Higgins was decent and Sebastian Janikowski didn't miss.

My Thoughts and Tidbits: Wow, that was a terrific ending. Who thought that Frye would get knocked out, Russell would get knocked out and then Losman would have to come in? Then, who thought Russell would come back in the game and then lead the team to a game-winning touchdown drive? Man, that was an incredible game. The defense really played hard. The defensive line brought the heat, the linebackers tackled and the defensive backs made plays all over the field. That's how you respond after a bad game, guys. Let's finally get two consecutive wins with us taking on the Cleveland Browns (3-11) next Sunday. Thank you, Oakland Raiders, for our early Christmas present.

Poll

Weekly Recap Poll: Who was the Oakland Raiders player of the game?

Potent Quotables - Raider Week Wednesday

TJ Johnson — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 01:14:40 -0000

More photos » by Ed Zurga - AP

16 days ago: Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels calls in a play during the second quarter of an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. The Broncos won 44-13. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

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HEAD COACH JOSH McDANIELS

On Oakland Head Coach Tom Cable announcing that QB Charlie Frye will start on Sunday
"It's not going to change our preparation. We'll get familiar with him this week. I've had some familiarity before. He's played in games, obviously, in this league for a few years. This won't be his first opportunity (to play). We'll get to know him over the next four days. We don't expect their offense to change that dramatically. They've got a lot of explosive players (and a) good running game. We'll prepare like normal."

On how to familiarize the Broncos with Frye
"We'll have all the film of him actually playing in games and all of that stuff available for our players here today. We'll talk about some of his strengths and weaknesses just like we would any other player."

On how the secondary's communication is affected if S Renaldo Hill cannot play against Oakland on Sunday
"'Dawk' (S Brian Dawkins) certainly does a lot of communicating in the back end, also. The secondary as a group has to communicate together. If one of those guys-and sometimes there are five or six of them on the field together-doesn't know the call, then you've got a bad play. The corners have to communicate to the safeties. Everybody who's giving a call has to get a call. Everybody who's supposed to get one is going to keep asking for it until they hear it. Brian, the corners, (CB) Ty (Law) and the guys that have been playing, they'll be in there and they'll help. We've got a couple guys who we're going to rep (at safety) this week, and then we'll see how Renaldo progresses. Other guys have to kind of step up and pick up some of that burden whenever you lose a player who is really kind of like a quarterback in the secondary."

On if S David Bruton and S Josh Barrett will take reps in Hill's place during practice
"David, (S) Vernon (Fox) and Josh, they're all back there. Like I said, we'll see how Renaldo progresses this week. We've got who we've got."

On Bruton's and Barrett's progress this season
"They've played a lot in the offseason and the preseason. (They) haven't played much safety during the course of the regular season. They get reps every week (in practice), and they get in there and they play and they learn. It's their job to know the game plan, but you'll find out a lot more when you put them in there in a real game. (We) have faith in both of them or all of them and trust them back there in the deep part of the field."

On how to protect the Broncos' health late in the season
"You have to kind of balance that with what you need to do to get ready for the game. We're certainly not unique in that we have some guys banged up and a long list on the (injury) report that says we've got some people with some bumps and bruises. You're right. This time of the year, everybody's going through that. I think you kind of take a hard look at your team and see what they need. Today, we're not going to go ahead and practice in pads today because we're banged up a little bit and just came off of a physical game. That's what we need today. We'll evaluate it going forward. Again, the biggest thing is if you can get your football team to game day where they can play physical on game day with a lot of energy and feel good about themselves physically and mentally. That's the most important thing. Right now, we've got nine practices left during the course of the season, and I hope by now we know how to do most of the things that we're trying to do physically. The most important thing at this part of the year is that your team is mentally fresh and as physically fresh as you can have them on game day."

On maximizing WR Brandon Marshall's ability
"He's a very good player. We all know that. You guys have known that for a while. He's got a unique skill set that allows you to do a lot of things with him. One of the things that I admire the most (about Marshall) is how smart he is because receiver is not an easy position to play in this league against all of the different looks you see, against all the different techniques and against all of the different corners. Guys have different talents and abilities that are covering (wide receivers), and you have to understand how to get open and what can help you get open. Any feedback that they can give us on game day certainly is worthwhile as long as it is the right stuff. He understands adjustments. We change some things during the course of the game, and he can change right along with us. He's great to coach, fun to have out there on game day and does a lot of great things. Hopefully, we'll (maximize his ability) this week, too."

On why Marshall leads the Broncos in receptions
"Certain games dictate that the ball goes to somebody more than others. We've seen that through the course of the year. Brandon has been a beneficiary of that; (WR) Eddie (Royal) was, certainly, earlier against New England. (WR) Jabar (Gaffney) has caught a bunch of balls here and there throughout the course of the year. (TE Tony) Scheffler had a bunch in San Diego. We still continue to have that philosophy. The ball is going to go where we think that it should go based on what they're doing to us, and hopefully, we've got enough talented players out there to hurt them in whatever coverages or blitz schemes they try to use against us. You always try to get the ball to guys who can make plays, and we've got a lot of them. It just so happened the last five or six weeks here we've really kind of been able to get him the ball a bunch. He's getting open. Again, it's a two-way street. You don't just design plays and then automatically have (a player make) 12 catches. You design your offense, and it's their responsibility to create separation and give you an opportunity to throw the ball in there. He's done a great job of it and a lot of our guys have. It's just he's had more turns. Again, there's not a big ‘force the ball to Brandon Marshall' philosophy going on here. You guys know that. He was open a bunch last week, and that's why he caught so many passes."

On if he is concerned with the Broncos' offensive balance against Indianapolis
"No, because again, if they want to just let us throw the ball to one guy, you take what they give you. Last week, we took what they gave us, and we're going to continue to do that. If they take that away, then the ball will go somewhere else. The most important thing for us is that we're moving the ball and having positive plays. Whether that be to 10 different receivers or five or three (to the) tight ends, backs or receivers, it doesn't make any difference. We're hoping to be productive no matter who we're throwing to."

On how the Raiders have changed since the Broncos last played them
"They're playing with a lot of guys who we didn't play against in the first game. (WR Chaz) Schilens is a go-to receiver. There's no doubt about that. Third down (and) red zone, he's had a big impact there for them. (He) made a bunch of big plays in the Cincinnati game late. (QB Bruce) Gradkowski obviously did some different things and moves in and out of the pocket well. We don't expect that to change. (RB Justin) Fargas, we didn't play against, either. (He's) a different style of runner. (Oakland) is one of only two teams or maybe the only team that has three backs who have 80 carries or more. Fargas, (RB Darren) McFadden and (RB Michael) Bush, they don't really care who's in there. They give it to all three of them and let them go with it. (WR Louis) Murphy is certainly playing much better. He was a young kid, obviously, when we played them the first time. This guy's made a bunch of big plays, a bunch of big catches and touchdowns the last month. He's playing at a different level. Defensively, I think 26 passes have been thrown at (CB Nnamdi) Asomugha in 13 games, which is amazing to me because he just shuts everybody down. They've created turnovers in the red zone, and then they've created turnovers when people have been backed up, which has given their offense a short field sometimes, and they've punched it in. They've continued to progress and get better and improve. They've got some players healthy now who they didn't when we first played them. We know what happened here last year. We were 6-4 and they were 2-8, and they came in here and drummed us 31-10. The fact that we are 8-5 and they're 4-9 doesn't really make a difference to us. It's a division game. We know it's going to be tough and physical, and they're playing a different style of football. They're aggressive. The word I use to describe them is ‘explosive.' (With) their kickers, their offense and their defense, if you take a play off, you're giving yourself a chance to have a big play put up against you."

On if his message to the Broncos changes entering the season's final three games
"We all understand where we're at. At the beginning of the season, we wanted to put ourselves into a position at this point to be able to compete to be able to play in the postseason. We've done that. Now, our urgency has to go up along with the rest of the league's. We can't take any days off (or) any plays off. We have to have good practice days the rest of the season because like I said, we only have nine of them left to try to earn more. The only thing we know is if we win three, we'll have a chance to play longer. That's what we're focused on right now, and it starts with the Raiders."

QB KYLE ORTON

On why Oakland CB Nnamdi Asomugha is so successful
"(His) speed (and) length; (he's) physical and basically runs the receivers route for him; he's extremely fast, quick; and he's got great length, too. It's not like you can just expect to throw the ball up on him and have him not make plays on the ball. When he's there and people throw at him, he certainly makes plays at the ball, so that adds another factor that makes him very tough."

On how you attack a corner like Asomugha
"You certainly don't want to live working against him if you have a choice. The other (cornerback) is very, good too. (No.) 37 (CB Chris Johnson) is a good player, but if you certainly have your choice, you don't want to be going at (No.) 21 (Asomugha)."

On the Asomugha-Brandon Marshall matchup
"Brandon is pretty good, too. He's got to cover Brandon, so it will be a good matchup all day. We have a lot of confidence in (No.) 15 (Marshall) when we throw to his routes."

On not being 100-percent healthy late in the season
"I don't think anybody is. That's part of the league. Good teams can deal with it, and teams that can't win late, they can't deal with it. You've got to have depth, you've got to have tough guys that play through it and you've got to just, more than anything, have production on the practice field. You can't just have everybody shutting it down three days a week and then showing up to play (on Sunday) and nothing ever gets done. It's tough and it's a battle, but we've got a lot of guys out there practicing and trying to get ready for this week."

On having to play through pain late in the season
"Obviously, there are some things that you can't play with, but if you can play with it, you've got to be out there."

On his ability to perform better when he's 100-percent healthy
"Obviously, the healthier you are (and) the better you feel, the better you are going to play. To start off the season for five games and have a broken finger, it's not perfect. It's not how you want it, but that's just how it is. You just try to deal with it and get through it."

On Marshall's football intelligence in comparison to his physical ability
"His size and his physical ability, to me, is what are most impressive, but he's a smart football-he's a total football player. You're not as good as he is without understanding the game and understanding defenses and what teams are trying to do. You just can't catch that many passes without having a good understanding of how teams are trying to take you away."

On his confidence in the receiving corps
"I have a ton of confidence. You look at (WR) Jabar Gaffney, (who) has been big all year. (WR) Eddie Royal has had big games for us. Whenever (WR Brandon) Stokley plays, he comes in and has huge plays for us. Our two tight ends (Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler) have been very productive as well when we've asked them to be. We've got a lot of people to throw the ball to. It's not like Brandon is going to be getting 20 balls every game."

On the Broncos' running backs in short-yardage situations
"(RB) Knowshon (Moreno) runs the ball pretty tough in short yardage. You can't run through everybody. We've got to do a better job of blocking for him. We've got to do a better job of getting a surge. That's on everybody on the offense, not just Knowshon. We've got good short-yardage backs. (RB) Peyton (Hillis) is a good one as well, but this isn't Knowshon's problem. This is the offense's problem."

On the Broncos' depth at running back
"We've had a deep backfield all year. We've got (RB) LaMont (Jordan) who hasn't played a ton for us lately that can come in and do good things. (We also have) Peyton, Knowshon and ‘Buck' (RB Correll Buckhalter). We've got a lot of guys that can play."

On if he is resting more and receiving more treatment in attempts to remain healthy late in the season
"(You do) everything, all of the above. As bad as you feel (on) Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, you've got to have faith that your preparation for your body is going to show dividends on Sunday. I know that's how I've felt. I haven't felt very well until about Saturday. (On) Saturday, you start feeling a little bit better, and by Sunday, you feel alright. The next week, you've got to go and do it all over again."

On if the Broncos' urgency increases entering the last three games of the season
"For us, it does for sure. We know what we've got to do the last three games. If we take care of our business, we'll be right where we want to be. It all starts this week with a tough divisional game, and we can't sleep on them. Every game you ever play inside the division is a tough game. We've got two (division games) out of the three (remaining), so we'll have a tough task, for sure."

S BRIAN DAWKINS

On if Oakland's announcement that QB Charlie Frye will start on Sunday affects the Broncos' preparation
"No, it is about what they do as a team. You know what they like to do. (They are a) big, physical team. They are going to try and run the ball and take shots when they have opportunities. You prepare for what they do best. Whoever plays or whoever does not play shouldn't make a difference in how we prepare."

On how the secondary will respond to injuries at safety
"It makes other guys who have been in the backseat doing some special teams work step up and play some ball. That, basically, is what it does. As far as (injuries) in a game, I've seen things happen in games before, and you have to continue and roll and continue and play and do what you can until those guys who can come back, come back. The guys who are going to step up have to be able to step up and make big plays for us."

On how members of the secondary can contribute in place of injured Broncos
"Those guys, each one of them brings different things to the table, but the thing that each one presents is a playmaking potential from that position. That is what you always look for: (someone who is) physical, can come up and make the open-field tackle when they need to, can catch the deep ball and go get it when they have to. Each one of those guys is going to be asked to do those things at different times of the season. Hopefully, it won't be too long and (S) Renaldo (Hill) will be able to get back in there soon. Until that time comes, they will have to do it."

On if this Sunday's game against Oakland is a trap game
"Is it a trap game? Trap games? We are in the last part of the season and trying to position ourselves to do what we need to do game by game. How can you have a trap game? There is no such thing as a trap game this late in the season."

On how to keep the Broncos focused on winning all three remaining games
"By not saying what you just said, ‘If we win all three.' It is about winning this one. Then when that happens-if we are able to pull this game out-we go to the next one. It is a one-game attitude. You can't try and crop them together and say, ‘If we do this...' ‘If' will get you beat every week, so we've got to go out and make sure we concentrate on this team, which is a very talented team. They are obviously going to come in here and want to win this game, so you can't look at anybody past this team."

On mentoring younger Broncos like S David Bruton
"I feel like I've been blessed to play this game, obviously, for a long time, and a lot of wisdom, I've received. I feel like it is my duty to pass that on to young guys under me. Whatever I see-he sits right next to me, so I'm always whispering different things to him to allow him to see what I see, what I'm seeing on the field and why I do certain things. Hopefully, it will allow him to be able to step into this position and be able to be where he needs to be right away from some of the things that we've talked about. I believe that is my position. I need to be able to help young guys under me, to help them to make sure that the safety position on whatever team that I'm playing for is a strong one for years to come."

On if it is more difficult to mentally prepare for teams that don't have elite quarterbacks
"This is crunch time. This is what you play football for, to put yourself in position to be able to do some things after (the regular season) if you continue to play good football. You shouldn't really need any one particular player to get you up for any game going forward. It is the position and where we are in the season (that) should get you up for every game. I understand outside of the locker room how that can mesmerize somebody to say that. You don't have (to face) a (Indianapolis QB) Peyton Manning or a (New England QB) Tom Brady or anybody playing at quarterback, but it does not matter this time of the season. The only thing that matters is getting wins and losses-wins hopefully-against good football teams. (Oakland) is a good football team. Their record may not say it and people may look down on them, but I look at the film and what I see is a lot of speed on the outside, a running attack that can gash you at anytime and a huge, physical offensive line that can move people off the ball. That is what I'm looking at. I don't look at their record."

On how he feels physically after a game
"(It) depends on the team, depends on the game and depends on what I've asked my body to do on that Sunday. Usually, Monday is not a fun day. It is a slow day for me, and I try and do everything in my power to get my body ready to come into practice and be able to run and run at a good pace so I'll be ready to run full speed and do the same crazy stuff again on that next Sunday."

On facing Oakland Frye
"Again, our job is to do specific thing, to try and be as familiar as possible with their offensive scheme, what they like to do-a lot of different things-and play football. When the ball is snapped, we have to be where we are supposed to be. We disguise (coverages) with everybody. It doesn't matter the quarterback. Once the ball is snapped, plays have to be made, edges have to be set (and) tackles have to be made. That is the definition of a defense later in the season, when you are able to do those things and correct those mistakes that you've made early so that you can play your best football."

On if he believes WR Brandon Marshall and Buffalo WR Terrell Owens are similar players
"Absolutely, you see that physically on the field. Probably (Houston WR) Andre (Johnson) will be another one from the Texans. (They are) physically just gifted, huge guys that can run and run after the catch and go get the ball when it's in the air. They present matchup problems every week. I don't care what team they are going against, they are going to have matchup problems going against those guys. Each one of them, from those two anyway, that I played with, (their) work ethic is unbelievable (with) the way they work in practice, and that translates into the game. That is why he is able to do the things in the game that he does because of his work ethic in practice."

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 14

TJ Johnson — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

9 days ago: Denver Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton (8) throws over Indianapolis Colts defensive tackle Keyunta Dawson, right, in the first quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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"What did you say, Stats Champion? I'll beat you like a dog, a dog, you fool!" --Clubber Lang

I pity the fool that believes in league parity.

Let's be honest. Outside of a few games, Week 14 was a complete bore. The winning teams won by an average of 15 points. While the storyline of the two undefeated teams continued to be compelling, most of the games were as forgettable as a JaMarcus Russell seam pass or a Jay Cutler trip to the red zone. Roger Goodell should have donated some of his TV revenues back to charity. At least fans would have felt better about the six hours of their lives they won't be getting back.

However, we did learn something about the Denver Broncos. They stand more than a puncher's chance in the playoffs.

Welcome to another round of The Stats That Don't Lie, your statistical Mister T. These are the stats that hit below the belt. They are the stats that never have to go to the judges. In short, they beat you like a dog, fool. As always they are Turnovers, Field Position, Time of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

10,000-Foot View

We first begin with my favorite visual of the Broncos season - turnover margin. This time, I restricted the visual to the games since the bye week. Honestly, cramming 13 weeks of data was getting tough.

As I did last week, I wanted to illustrate how the turnovers from the box score can be a little deceiving. Therefore, I included both the turnover margin that includes interceptions and fumbles in orange and the turnover margin that includes interceptions, fumbles, and turnovers on downs in blue. The latter also included missed field goals as was suggested previously.

It's worth repeating what I wrote last week in looking at the two stats side by side:

...stats geeks have argued for decades that turnovers on downs should be included in the turnover statistics. The thinking is that no matter the method of turning the ball over (fumble, interception, or downs), it still has the same basic result: the drive is dead. Clearly, there is a higher value in an interception or fumble because of the inherent possibility of a score, but a turnover on downs stops your drive just the same.

Applying this to the Indianapolis-Denver game, one immediately notices that the recorded turnover margin is, well, a missed uppercut. The box score shows that Denver won the turnover margin battle by two. But in reality, Denver turned the ball over on downs on three drives during the game and also missed a field goal. So that swings Denver's positive turnover margin to the negative. Many have commented about the concern over the play-calling on 4th down. These "real" turnover numbers lend credence to this view. Not converting these 4th downs (and the 3rd downs that preceded them) on short yardage killed Denver in this game, so much so that it was the equivalent of losing the turnover battle. And, unlike Indianapolis or New Orleans, Denver is a team that needs to win the turnover battle.

To this game (and in particular, 3rd downs) we shall return again, but let's get to our team rankings.

Team Rankings

Here's where the Broncos stack up against the rest of the league after Week 14. As always, remember these are averages/game (in my mind a better measure than aggregate numbers):

I'm not letting the Broncos off the hook on 3rd downs, where they rank 23rd in the league. This is just an atrocious stat given that teams like the Detroit Lions are more effective. If for some reason the Broncos don't make the playoffs, we can all point to 3rd downs as the reason why. While I'll leave others to speculate on the tactical reasons for this (bad play calling, a weak offensive line, Moreno's cuts and reads), it's outrageous that an 8-5 team is hovering at around 35% on 3rd downs--the Kool-Aid has gone just a tad bitter.

If you doubt the power of 3rd downs (or my power of cherry picking stats to make my case), then simply take a quick peek at which two teams are #1 and #2 in this statistic. My oh my, it happens to be the two teams who are 13-0.

Speaking of the Saints and Colts, everyone in the mainstream media continues their enchantment with these teams going undefeated. They very well may do so, but historically, they are not as good as teams from the past have been. As it currently stands, New Orleans has a points/points against ratio of 1.70. Indy's is 1.65. Historically, over the last 25 years, this would put these teams between 13-14 wins. The 1985 Bears hold the record for the largest points/points against ratio at 2.03. And they still lost a game. Count me with the dwindling crowd of naysayers.

In case you were wondering, the Broncos' ratio is currently 1.11, which projects them at 10 wins. And strangely enough, 10 wins coincides with Kyle Orton's historical winning percentage. Given Denver's schedule this year (its opponents currently hold an overall record of 91-78), 10 wins would be a good accomplishment.

Other positives for the Broncos? Their field position is getting better, they (generally) continue to be smart with the football, and one of their receivers is doing his best impersonation of Ivan Drago. He will break you.

I once again included average-turnover-margin per game in these stats. This is because I can't resist piling on Tony Romo and the Cowboys. While they are tied for 4th in giveaways, they are 14th in turnover margin, and actually have a net-negative-turnover margin/game. Romo can volunteer for holding duties all he wants, but he might want to tell his defense to force some turnovers, first.

Turnover margin also begs me to ask the question, "If the season ended today, who would you rather play, New England or Cincinnati?" The Broncos have beaten both, and it looks like they will be on the road against one of these teams. From the rankings above, give me the Bengals. They are slightly worse on 3rd downs and give up the ball slightly more than the Patriots. But their average turnover margin/game is barely positive. This tells me they can be beaten. And if the Broncos are like the rest of us, I am sure they want to prove that Week 1 was no fluke.

Did I mention that Brady and Belichick scare the hell out of me in the playoffs?

The I-can't-believe-you-creeped-up-on-me award should certainly go to the Packers. Their rankings in each of the categories is top ten. Their average-turnover-margin per game is a whopping 1.38, which is much higher than that of New Orleans. Although they have a tougher schedule in the next three weeks than the Vikings, they are peaking at the right time. If the season were only a few games longer, the Vikings could have had real problems. Expect those problems, however, to begin in the playoffs with whoever the Packers match up against.

For those that are already looking past the Raiders (like me), and are wondering how Philly is stacking up, it's clear that game will be incredibly difficult for the Broncos. The Eagles can score points (as witnessed this week against the Giants), but more importantly, their average turnover margin/game is a stellar 1.15. DeSean Jackson has also allowed them to rank 5th in field position, beginning on average at the 31.19-yard line.

Last week, I stated that I didn't think Jacksonville was playoff material because their average turnover margin/game was negative and their points differential was -48. After this week, that number climbed to -52. Look for them to be overtaken by either Baltimore or even Miami (if they get past Tennessee this week).

Lastly, I've never been accused of being self-actualized, so I continue to get my jollies off of blasting Jay Cutler. This week is no different. Although the Bears have slipped slightly in their field-position rankings, I continue to ask myself how good they could be if Jay Cutler's name was Kyle Orton. Oh, and if Jay's right arm wasn't a drinking fountain for interceptions.

Week 14 Summaries

There isn't a lot more to be said about the Broncos game in addition to the turnovers, so I'll just point out a few things. First, Indy was again over 50% on 3rd downs for the game, while Denver hovered around its season average of 35%. We all knew that they needed to beat the Colts in this category to stand a chance. Second, time of possession had little value in the game. As the Broncos witnessed during the 1st quarter, it didn't take Manning long to score. In fact, on the three quick touchdowns that put Denver in the hole 21-0, the Colts' average drive lasted about 4:27 and their average yards per play was 6.7. For the Colts, a drive that lasts over 4 minutes is an eternity. For the rest of the league, it seems rather hasty. Lastly, even though Denver did a good job with overall field position during the game, their average starting field position on kickoffs was the 18-yard line. I am begging Josh McDaniels to let Eddie Royal become a slot receiver, not a kick returner.

A few other games of note: First, New Orleans-Atlanta. Yes, Sean Payton's fake-field-goal call was a bit strange. But if the Saints don't go 8-of-12 on 3rd downs, they don't win this game. Both teams only had 8 total drives for the entire game (compare this to 13 in the Denver-Indy game). Drives were at a premium - which meant, so were 3rd downs. Going 66% on 3rd downs was absolutely critical - even more important given that Atlanta was 50%. If only this kind of efficiency could rub off on Denver.

I wanted to highlight San Diego-Dallas also. I hate Philip Rivers. I absolutely hate the guy. But Kyle Orton would do well to study how he shuffles in the pocket. While Peyton Manning is the king of shuffling in the pocket, Rivers isn't far behind. Also, statistically, Dallas, you can't go 13% on 3rd downs (Kansas City territory) while your opponent goes 42% and expect to win an NFL game.

As an amusement, I highlight the Arizona-San Francisco game. I was really hoping that Arizona would come back in this game after committing 5 turnovers in the first half. In the last two years, I've been wanting to analyze an NFL game in which the turnover margin was -5, and yet a team managed to win. But the pesky turnovers kept giving the 49ers a short field, and even an Alex Smith-led team can win this type of game. So I'll continue my sorrowful wait.

The Summaries

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

6 teams had 0 turnovers. 2 won (33%); For the season, 62/80 (78%)
12 teams had 1 turnover. 7 won (58%); For the season, 71/121 (59%)
5 teams had 2 turnovers. 3 won (60%); For the season, 51/115 (44%)
5 teams had 3 turnovers. 4 won (80%); For the season, 20/61 (33%)
2 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 4/27 (15%)
2 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 0/12 (0%)

Week 14 - Big Picture

The team that won the turnover battle won 11 of 16 games played (69%).
In the previous category, remove the ties (4 games) and this changes to 44%
The team that won the time of possession battle won 13 of the 16 games played (63%).
The team that had better third-down efficiency won 12 of the 16 games played (81%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 14 of the 16 games played (88%).
There were 5 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In all 5, the same team won on the scoreboard (100%). For the season, this stat is 67 out of 72 games. In only 3 games, however, has a team won outright in all four categories (no ties in the turnover battle) and lost.
The winning teams this week averaged 1.56 turnovers, 31:27 in time of possession, 42.23% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 34.73-yard line.

Top 5 in Week 14:

Top 5 in giveaways: Pittsburgh, Cleveland, New Orleans, Carolina, Jacksonville, and Dallas all tied with 0.
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.San Francisco 2.New Orleans 3.Miami 4.New York Giants 5.New England

Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.New Orleans 2.Minnesota 3.Indy 4.Miami 5. San Francisco/Atlanta
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.Green Bay 2.Baltimore 3.San Francisco 4.New York Jets 5.Minnesota

Running Totals, Season (through 14 weeks):

208 games have been played this season
79.81% were won by the team with less turnovers (counting ties as wins)
66.35% with a better time of possession
67.79% by the team who won on 3rd down
71.63% by the team that won the field-position battle.

14-week League Averages:

14-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.70

14-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:10 (thanks to OT games)

14-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.62%

14-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.87-yard line

The Look Ahead

Looking ahead to Oakland, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd-Down Efficiency

Denver 1.46 30:10 29.10 35.13%

Oakland 2.00 27:39 27.14 28.91%

Do I even need to say any more? If Denver loses this game - especially at home - they really have about as much business being in the playoffs as John Clayton has being at a Sturgis bike rally. Oakland is dead meat.

Denver should dominate this team and TKO them by the 2nd quarter. The last game was 23-3, and I would consider this close. There is absolutely no reason why Denver shouldn't send Al's boys home to contemplate Tom Cable's imminent firing and another top-5 draft pick. This week's prediction for Oakland: pain! I pity the fool that thinks otherwise.

Hail, Kyle Orton!!

Last stat: 100% (percentage chance that Al Davis really is a vampire).

Brandon Marshall named AFC Player of the Week

John Bena — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 02:34:18 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

9 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall, left, catches a pass over Indianapolis Colts safety Tim Jennings for a touchdown in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. Marshall had 21 receptions for 200 yards in the game. The Colts defeated the Broncos 28-16. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall will be named AFC Offensive Player of the Week for games played during the 14th week (Dec. 10-14) of the 2009 season, the National Football League informed the Broncos on Tuesday.

Marshall's selection as AFC Offensive Player of the Week is the second such award of his four-year NFL career. He also received the honor for his effort in Week 2 of the 2008 season against San Diego.

During Denver's game at Indianapolis on Sunday, Marshall posted an NFL-record 21 receptions for a career-high 200 yards with two touchdowns. His 21 catches surpassed Terrell Owens' previous league record of 20 receptions, which he totaled for San Francisco vs. Chicago on Dec. 17, 2000.

Below are a few notes on Marshall's performance against Indianapolis:

His NFL-record 21 catches vs. Indianapolis give him two of the top-four single-game receiving totals in NFL history. His 18 grabs (166 yds., 1 TD) vs. San Diego on Sept. 14, 2008, tie for the third-highest single-game total in NFL annals.
His 21 catches represented his eighth career game with at least 10 receptions, marking the most by a player through his first four seasons in NFL history.
The former University of Central Florida star was targeted 28 times, which represented the highest such total in the NFL since at least the 1994 season.
His 12 receiving first downs were the most by an NFL player in four seasons and tied for the fourth-highest total in the league since at least the 1994 season.
His 200 receiving yards represented the third-highest total by a Bronco in club history and were the highest total by a Denver player in five seasons (Rod Smith, 208 yds., vs. Atl., 10/31/04) as well as the highest total by an AFC player this year.

Marshall is Denver's fifth AFC Player of the Week winner this season, joining cornerback Champ Bailey (Wk. 4 vs. Dallas), quarterback Kyle Orton (Wk. 5 vs. New England), wide receiver/returner Eddie Royal (Wk. 6 at San Diego) and kicker Matt Prater (Wk. 12 vs. N.Y. Giants). He is Denver's 45th AFC Offensive Player of the Week winner since the award was initiated by the NFL in 1984.

Previewing the Enemy: Denver Broncos

Rated-R Superstar — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 14:37:54 -0000

Earlier this season, Denver won a topsy-turvy 23-3 game in Oakland. [via www4.pictures.zimbio.com]

Unfortunately for us loyal fans of the silver and black, the season isn't over quite yet. With Bruce Gradkowski out, our already slim chances just became even slimmer. Coming off of a blowout loss at the hands of the Washington Redskins, we next face our hated rival in the Denver Broncos. Denver's real season hasn't even yet started. Sitting at 8-5 and atop the AFC Wild Card, the Broncos in great position to grab a playoff spot. I'll admit that I did in no way see this coming from this Denver squad. They've definitely proven a lot of people wrong as they continue their final push into the playoffs. A familiar opponent to us, let's see what we're up against this Sunday.

Let's take a look at their schedule and see how they've fared so far.

Week 1: @ Cincinnati Bengals -- W, 12-7
Week 2: Cleveland Browns -- W, 27-6
Week 3: @ Oakland Raiders -- W, 23-3
Week 4: Dallas Cowboys -- W, 17-10
Week 5: New England Patriots -- W, 20-17 (F/OT)
Week 6: @ San Diego Chargers -- W, 34-23
Week 7: Bye Week
Week 8: @ Baltimore Ravens -- L, 7-30
Week 9: Pittsburgh Steelers -- L, 10-28
Week 10: @ Washington Redskins -- L, 17-27
Week 11: San Diego Chargers -- L, 3-32
Week 12: New York Giants -- W, 26-6
Week 13: @ Kansas City Chiefs -- W, 44-13
Week 14: @ Indianapolis Colts -- L, 16-28

Wow, the Broncos have really cooled off after a great 6-0 start. Just 2-5 in their last seven games, the Broncos still have good wins against teams like the Cowboys, Patriots, Chargers and Giants. They're no slouch.

Let's take a look at the Bronco offense first.

Pass Offense Rank: 225.2 yards/game; 19th in NFL
Rush Offense Rank: 123.2 yards/game; 12th in NFL
Total Offense Rank: 336.4 yards/game; 19th in NFL
Scoring Offense Rank: 19.7 points/game; 20th in NFL

I bet this guy feels like an idiot now. [via stfusports.files.wordpress.com]

Head coach Josh McDaniels is pretty close to being an offensive genius. A disciple of Bill Belichick's, the 33-year-old McDaniels really knows how to run a team at least offensively. There was controversey before the season started, especially revolving around star wide receiver Brandon Marshall. Still, he's around and there aren't any qualms circling around him. In the offseason, the team waved goodbye to Jay Cutler. It may have been the best thing they've done after all.

Kyle Orton, QB: No, he doesn't have the big arm that Jay Cutler does. No, it's not a problem at all. Coming over from the Chicago Bears in an offseason trade that sent Cutler packing to Chicago, Orton has flourished in Josh McDaniels' system. Orton is completing a career-high 63 percent of his passes and will break a career-high in touchdowns and yards before the season concludes. He's a smart quarterback. He doesn't make mistakes. He can make the play, too. What more do you want?

Knowshon Moreno, HB: A rookie from Georgia, Knowshon Moreno didn't immediately step into the starting role. Lately, he has been getting the bulk of the carries. Moreno has carried it an average of 18.2 times over the past five weeks for an average of 82.8 yards. He has also scored three times during that span. Moreno has pretty much taken over the feature back role, although he won't catch many passes out of the backfield.

Correll Buckhalter, HB: Buckhalter was brought over in free agency from the Philadelphia Eagles and has done a pretty good job this season despite not getting the bulk of the carries. Overall, Buckhalter has posted a 5.3 yards per carry average and has been very reliable carrying the football. Like Moreno, though, Buckhalter isn't a threat out of the backfield to catch the ball having no more than three grabs in a single game in two months.

Brandon Marshall caught an NFL record 21 passes last week against the Colts. [via a.espncdn.com]

Brandon Marshall, WR: What more can be said about Marshall that hasn't already been said? At one point, we didn't even think he'd be a Denver Bronco. Now, he's tearing up the league. Amongst AFC pass-catchers, Marshall is tied for the conference lead in touchdowns (9), is third in receptions (86) and is seventh in yards (1,008). He is probably headed to a Pro Bowl. In case you missed it, last week against the Colts, Marshall had an NFL record 21 grabs for 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It'll be fun to see him matched up against Nnamdi Asomugha.

Jabar Gaffney, WR: Josh McDaniels brought Gaffney over from New England to play in his system in Denver. Gaffney is averaging about 39 yards per game when he does catch a pass as he was shutout in Week 10 and Week 13 each. Still, Gaffney must be accounted for along with the rest of the weapons that go unmentioned during this preview, such as Brandon Stokley. At any given week, one of those these weapons can step up and hurt you.

Eddie Royal, WR: More dangerous in the return game, Raiders fans know all about this speedy little man from Virginia Tech. Last year on Monday night, Royal had a huge coming out party in the opening game. After a great 2008 campaign, this season has been bit of a disappoint for Royal; however, he still makes an impact. As previously mentioned, Royal is a threat in the return game -- both kicks and punts. Not quite as dangerous as someone like Joshua Cribbs of the Cleveland Browns, just ask the Chargers about Royal's prowess.

Daniel Graham, TE: Yet another former Patriot is calling Denver home. With Tony scheffler's status in doubt this Sunday, Graham becomes even more keyed-in on in the passing game. Graham isn't Orton's favorite target or anything, but last week, Fred Davis hurt us with his two touchdown receptions. With all of the guys Orton has to throw to, limit as many of them as you can. Stopping Graham isn't high on the priorities or anything, but just don't let the people who shouldn't beat you hurt you.

Let's shift gears to the Bronco defense now.

Pass Defense Rank: 183.3 yards/game; 2nd in NFL
Rush Defense Rank: 107.4 yards/game; 14th in NFL
Total Defense Rank: 290.7 yards/game; 3rd in NFL
Scoring Defense Rank: 17.7 points/game; 5th in NFL

Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has completely transformed the defense. [via a.espncdn.com]

Man, where do I begin with this defense? Last year, they were outright terrible. Ex-49er head coach Mike Nolan steps in, implements a 3-4 defense with the right personnel and viola. Some no-name defensive linemen Kenny Peterson, Ryan McBean and Ronald Fields have stepped in and played well. At the linebacking core, D.J. Williams and Andra Davis are very solid in the middle. Elvis Dumervil, playing the outside linebacker spot and even defensive end, he has become a sack machine. He leads the entire NFL in sacks with 15. With all of that said, the rushing defense is still just a tad above average despite improvement -- dramatic improvement. The secondary is where the defense shines with the pass defense. The team gets great rush on the quarterback and the defensive backs are very skilled. Veterans Brian Dawkins at safety and Champ Bailey at cornerback lead the defense.

Conclusion: Well, it's quiet simple: Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden and all the rest of you running backs need to be ready to carry the load. With Bruce Gradkowski out and Zach Miller's status in question, it only makes sense to pound the rock. Denver's rush defense is ranked 14th, significantly worse than their pass defense which is only worse than the Jets'. JaMarcus Russell or Charlie Frye -- we're all collectively praying for McDonald's instead of Fasto Burger which can be seen on That '70s Show -- will have a tough time. The young wide receivers are up against a tough secondary and it's just setting up for disaster, really. Again, we're going to have to establish some sort of ground game. Use 'em often and use 'em all with the exception of Gary Russell as he should be used in the flat. I don't know what else to tell you. We could be in for a long day. This could easily turn into a 41-6 rout.

Feel free to leave your predictions or even your own thoughts and ideas about the Denver Broncos and how we can earn a win our fourth win of the season on Sunday.

*-All stats are through Tuesday, December 15, 2009. (Happy 44th, mom!)

Poll

Do you feel more confident in a win, less confident in a win or about the same in a win after reading this preview?

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

9 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall, left, avoids the tackle of Indianapolis Colts linebacker Gary Brackett in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. Marshall had 21 receptions for 200 yards in the game. The Colts defeated the Broncos 28-16. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Christmas is coming - and I, for one, am hoping for a much more joyous holiday season than I experienced last December. All I got for Christmas last year was the Broncos' historic collapse, and all I had to give was the one scenario that could possibly be worse than the season-ending Chargers game (it involved hypothetically cutting an apple, slipping, and stabbing myself in the groin WHILE watching that game).

I'm not much for moral victories, but today in Donny Deutschland, I will talk about why I feel better about Sunday's loss than I have about any Broncos loss in years. There's no time to waste, so let's not waste any time. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. I learned on Sunday that what I suspected was the case, was in fact, the case. That is, the Broncos can play with Indianapolis, at Indianapolis. It happened a little differently than I thought it would, but the Broncos competed, and got back in the game after getting down in really ugly fashion. Consider these statistics, as I pretend that I care about statistics for a moment. The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 posessions. These measures would tend to indicate victory, but in this case, the Broncos fell a little short.

For next time, we can internalize a few thoughts:

a. The Broncos have the players and schemes to cover the Colts receivers, pressure Peyton Manning, and generally disrupt their offense.

b. The Broncos have the players and schemes to move the ball at will against the Colts defense.

c. As a fan base, we all mistakenly thought to ourselves "Here we go again" when the Colts got up 21-0 after four possessions. We can take this game as a lesson that the past doesn't indicate the future. Those Broncos teams which got their doors blown off by the Colts passing game are definitely not these Broncos.

One general concern is that the Broncos could have run the ball better, and will need to next time. I felt the run scheme was too zone-heavy and horizontal, and it played into the Colts' plan to run-blitz the gaps. A smaller, faster team needs to be man-blocked with a vertical scheme. Those are guys you don't necessarily want moving laterally, because they're comfortable doing so.

The other concern is that at money time, Dallas Clark needed more and better attention. Josh Barrett needed to be on the field manning him up, because he's the best guy in the NFL at covering TEs man-to-man.

All in all, I am proud of the way the Broncos stayed in the game, despite some reasons that lesser men would take to quit. This was really a game which turned on a few plays, and I am pleased to know that the Broncos can compete with Indianapolis, unlike in past years. This week, it's the Raiders, and luckily, JaMarcus Russell will be under center again. Expect Elvis Dumervil to get some shots at him. The Broncos can take care of business at home, and position themselves well to make the postseason. Happy Raiders Week, friends.

2. Information From My Eyes, Broncos at Colts:

a. Andre' Goodman got beat on a crossing route by Pierre Garcon on the first offensive play of the game, and in the moment, I wondered if there was a major speed mismatch. Goodman settled down to play Garcon spectacularly the rest of the game, breaking up four well-thrown balls. Goodman has been terrific all year, but I'd call this his best game as a Bronco.

b. When the Broncos drafted Darcel McBath, I'd never heard of him. I'm very impressed with his play as a rookie, though, and he had a fantastic game Sunday. He separated Dallas Clark from the ball on a 3rd down, and also baited Peyton Manning into his third interception. It's a real bummer that he broke his forearm and is gone for the season, but he showed well when he got the opportunities. I look for him to make a serious run at Renaldo Hill's starting job next season.

c. I really "misunderestimated" the Colts' DTs, Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson. They both played fantastic, and drove the Broncos' interior players backward consistently.

d. Ryan Clady didn't play very well in the running game, which was a departure from what we've been seeing lately. He got pushed backward several times when he lost leverage, and he misread a few run blitzes, and didn't hit the right guy. He's young and growing, and we can only hope he learns from this game.

e. Brandon Marshall was spectacular, of course. It's obvious that Kyle Orton really trusts him to make plays at this point. I wish he trusted Eddie Royal a little more, though. The truth is, though, Royal hasn't come up with some plays when he's had chances to do so.

f. I was happy to see Jabar Gaffney back in the mix this week. He's a pro's pro, and the Broncos offense is better when he is involved.

g. I was pleased with what I saw from Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil, despite the Broncos' lack of sacks. Both played well against the run, and generated pressure against Manning.

h. Peyton Hillis isn't a very good lead blocker, and I think a key part of the trouble the running game had was with the loss of Spencer Larsen. Larsen has been knocking heads the last two weeks, and he wasn't there this time, obviously.

Hillis is a good RB, but he's a true HB, not a FB. The truth is, he is where he should be on the depth chart; the third RB for the Broncos. Zappa said that some DP posters were calling for Knowshon Moreno to be benched, and Hillis to get the starting job. That's not going to happen, and frankly, it's asinine. Hillis could get more opportunity to make plays, but he deserves to be behind Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. There's no question in my mind of that.

i. The Colts' last drive was enabled by missed tackles by Vonnie Holliday (first play of the series) and Mario Haggan (3rd down inside the Broncos 10).

j. Oh, Dallas Clark. Ty Law did a good job on him, but he often was assigned to cover Austin Collie. Wesley Woodyard is a good zone player, but he can't cover a Clark in man-to-man. That 4th-and-4 was badly schemed, because Brian Dawkins shouldn't be manned up on Clark, either.

Finally, at the end of the game, the approach should have been to look at the formation. The power was left, and the only receiving threat was Clark, playing with his hand down on the right side. You need somebody to drive him straight into the ground, so he can't get out in the pattern. That's how I would coach that situation, anyway. Tackle him when he pretends to block, without getting called for holding.

k. D.J. Williams had a very good game, except for the one stupid penalty. Darrell Reid got (another) one of those too, while we're at it.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games

a. I thought Thursday's Browns-Steelers game was pretty riveting, and I almost wish I went (but not quite). Several of my friends tried to get me to go, because everybody in the world was trying to dump their tickets. It was 12 degrees, with 50 mph winds, and felt negative-7 in Cleveland that night. That's a recipe for freezing your hind-parts off, as Omar would say.

The Browns are changing for the better, and I wonder if it saves Eric Mangini's job. They're doing some very interesting things, like using Mike Furrey at FS. He's played both ways in his career, but has been more of a WR in the NFL, and caught 98 passes for the Lions in 2006, which was second in the NFL.

He did some nice things at Safety in the game, and it reminded me of Troy Brown playing defense for the Patriots, though, as I mentioned, Furrey has played defense at the professional level. You have to be impressed with a player doing what it takes to help his team win.

b. A guy who I have always liked, who the Browns found for free is Matt Roth. He got on the wrong side of Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano in Miami, and they put him on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list, and then waived him in November. The Browns smartly claimed him, and he's played very well for the Browns thus far. The Sam position in a 3-4 is pretty hard to fill, because it's a unique skill set. Lamarr Woodley and Mario Haggan are both very good at it, and Adalius Thomas used to be, but like RT on offense, there are a lot more average 3-4 Sams than there are good ones. Roth is a good one, because he sets the edge well, and generates a good pass rush when he's called upon to do so. Finding a guy like him in-season is what a bad team has to do.

c. Two unheralded guys who the Browns have discovered on offense are RB Chris Jennings and TE Evan Moore. Jennings won a Grey Cup recently with the Montreal Alouettes, and looked like the best back on the Browns roster last Thursday. He ran with power and explosion against an excellent run defense.

I meant to mention Moore last week and forgot; but I know a football player when I see one, and he's a player. He was a big WR at Stanford for 4 years, and also played basketball for his first 2 years. His fluidity, body control, and overall athleticism jump off the screen, and really remind me of Antonio Gates. I don't know if he's as fast as Gates, but he looks to me like he could definitely be a Brent Celek-caliber receiving TE. He's been key to Brady Quinn's recent improvement, because Quinn does his best throwing work inside the numbers.

Jennings and Moore are two players who the Browns can be very excited about, as they figure out what their program is during the offseason. Like Roth, they came with no significant cost. Now the Browns just need to nail their offseason.

d. I had a friend who is a Steelers fan ask me what was wrong with his team, and I think I may have disappointed him by not having a real definitive answer ready. It's kind of a tough question to answer, really, because Mike Tomlin had it exactly right when he said it was a function of struggles in all three phases of the game.

The defense really misses Troy Polamalu, who I think might be the most irreplaceable defensive player in the NFL. No safety plays with the speed of Polamalu, and the Steelers are much more conservative in their blitz packages without him. Their CBs are also playing pretty poorly over the last five games. On offense, I think the Steelers play-calling has been suspect. Rashard Mendenhall has emerged as a good RB, and the Steelers seem reluctant to commit to letting him run. I'm not surprised at the rumblings Sunday that some offensive coaches are likely going to get whacked after the season.

e. Now, on to why the Browns won Thursday. There were two reasons. One reason is that Joshua Cribbs is a great football player, and he carried his team on offense and special teams. The other is that the Browns covered the Steelers' receivers at a shockingly high level. ST&NO Favorite Brandon McDonald was fantastic. He might have had the best coverage game I have seen from a CB this year (although Andre' Goodman was awesome on Sunday, too). Eric Wright was strong on the other side too, though he gave up a few completions to Santonio Holmes. As has often been the case with the Broncos this season, the coverage allowed the pressure to get to Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked 8 times.

f. It was another annoying weekend when almost every game was early, including the Broncos. I had the Chicago-Green Bay game on at the same time as the Broncos game,. and as I watched some of it, I was struck by the fact that neither team showed me anything that I didn't already know about them. Aaron Rodgers continued his recent run of getting sacked less, and the Packers defense was strong again. The Bears had some flashes, but self-destructed at key times.

The only real takeaway from this, to me, is another reminder why I don't really like fantasy football. The number one player in the Official MHR League this year has been my QB, Rodgers. In real football terms, he played fine on Sunday. He completed 16 of 24 throws for 180 yards, and lost a fumble on a blind-side sack. His team won the game, so no worries, right? Well, in fantasy terms, he tanked. Not only that, I am playing Zappa in the playoffs this week, and he has Ryan Grant, who had a monster game with 137 yards and 2 TDs, because the Bears were playing coverage to prevent big plays in the passing game.

g. Speaking of guys who tanked on my fantasy team, Randy Moss, this skunky, warm Miller High Life is for you. One catch for 16 yards, and a lost fumble? Really? He really looked like he wasn't trying hard, too; it was a total flashback to the Oakland days. Good thing I had Brandon Marshall and the Eagles (TD scoring) defense.

h. I think the Patriots are in trouble, and that their culture needs an adjustment. I read Bill Belichick's sending tardy players home as a clear indication of that. Adalius Thomas lipped off in the media, and got benched for it, and Randy Moss did it with his play somewhat on Sunday. I wouldn't be shocked if both are gone after this season. Thomas is gone for sure, and Moss is a possibility. The Patriots have a lot of draft assets with which to restock the WR position, and they're pretty solid at LB anyway, with guys like Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich making positive contributions.

It was pretty interesting how Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came to Moss's aid on Monday, after he clearly was dogging some pass routes. Michael Lombardi had a good point on NFL Network that Moss has done that his whole career, and that the Patriots probably weren't too alarmed by it. I think it's pretty bad, personally.

i. Scary moment in Arlington, Texas, when DeMarcus Ware was carted off the field with a neck injury. The Chargers had a false start, and then went right down the field in two plays to score the deciding TD afterward. Reports on Monday were that Ware would miss the next two weeks, which would really handicap the Dallas defense. Most casual fans think of Ware as just a pass rusher, but he is a rare player who stars against the run, and in zone coverage too.

j. I alluded to this thought last week, but it was well-articulated by Michael Lombardi last night; Dallas's struggles have nothing to do with what month it is. The same can be said of the Chargers and their success in the month of December. If you're playing in a lot of places where there's bad weather, then maybe the month is a semi-meaningful data point, but neither Dallas nor San Diego particularly qualifies. I know somebody is going to say that a game in December is a pressure game, but even that's not true a lot of times. San Diego has tended to be healthy in December, and Dallas has tended to be banged up. San Diego has tended to play weak late-season schedules, and Dallas has tended to play difficult ones. Don't get caught up in things which Peter King would incorrectly call a factoid.

k. That Radio Shack commercial with the sleeping scruffy dude saying "Dance, Sugar Plum Fairies" is bizarre. It makes no sense at all to me, and I can't imagine how it would make anybody want to shop at Radio Shack, or buy that craptastic phone from Sprint.

l. NBC lucked out with a great game on Sunday night between the Eagles and Giants. Neither defense looked particularly good, but both offenses lit it up. The difference in the game was a defensive TD from Sheldon Brown, and a punt-return TD from DeSean Jackson. Those plays also provided the difference in the Shallow Thoughts team beating Zappa's Sactown Beavers in the playoffs.

m. I would never let Jackson get off the line of scrimmage without getting hit. Teams just insist on letting this guy run free through their secondary, and he kills them. Little, fast guys like him must be re-routed off the line, and then you want over/under coverage on him after that. He's not the typical big, physical number-1 WR like Brandon Marshall, but he does need double-team attention, or at least Cover-3 behind him, so he can be hit at the line with confidence.

n. Brandon Jacobs, to me, is like a 98-mph fastball that's a little too straight, and rarely misses bats. Jacobs has been running harder lately than he was early in the season, but he doesn't make anybody miss. He takes so many hits, and this year, he's going down more easily than he used to. I think the Giants offense is better when Ahmad Bradshaw is getting more carries than Jacobs at this point, even as Jacobs has been better lately.

o. Speaking of the Giants, I want to share some ST&NO light with a Giants fan, because I've coincidentally been listening to his music as I wrote this part of the column. If you like hip hop, you ought to check out Nickel at his website www.SpotMeANickel.com. He's got a couple albums worth of MP3s available for free download there. I went to high school with the guy at Norwich Free Academy in Norwich, CT, and it's cool to see him doing well, and making good music.

p. As always, I watched 5 games on Monday night, and the one I learned the most from was the New Orleans-Atlanta game. Very simply, New Orleans deserved to lose the game, and I haven't seen or heard anybody acknowledge that. I take that as a reaffirmation that my effort is worth the time.

Brent Grimes got called for two horrible pass-interference penalties, on plays where he reached around his man to play the ball. Those two plays directly led to 14 points being scored, and the Saints won by 3. The officials bogusly penalized ST&NO Favorite Thomas DeCoud on an even better play in the fourth quarter too, but Garrett Hartley subsequently missed a Field Goal, so it didn't affect the scoreboard. The Saints are a very good team, and they don't need any bonus help, but apparently you can't breathe on their receivers. It reminded me of the 2006 NBA Finals, when Dwyane Wade got "fouled" practically every time he touched the ball, and it disgusted me just as much to watch.

q. Jonathan Vilma deserves credit for sealing the win for New Orleans. He intercepted Chris Redman with 3 minutes to go in the game. Then, after the Saints arrogantly tried a fake field goal, rather than taking the points and going up 6, Vilma tackled the formidable Jason Snelling cold in the open field, a yard short of the first down on 4th and 2. He made the plays that were there to be made.

r. While I'm on the topic of the Saints, here's an E! True Hollywood Story for you. Or maybe it's a Letterman-style Top 2 list. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Top 2 Things Ted Bartlett Currently Doesn't Give A Damn About (And Al Roker's Forecast Calls For No Change:)

1. Whether or not the Colts or Saints go 16-0, and on a related note, whether or not they rest their starters.

2. Who wins the NFL MVP Award.

Going 16-0 doesn't matter to anything. All it would do is create something which Peter King would someday mistakenly call a factoid (even though it's actually a fact). The only thing that matters is going 3-0 (or 4-0) in the Playoffs. Plus, the whole thing puts Mercury Morris back in the spotlight, and he's a jerk who doesn't deserve it.

As for the MVP Award, really, who cares? I may start caring if somebody other than a QB or RB can win, other than the rare Lawrence Taylor in 1986. (Since the AP award began in 1957, only DT Alan Page, K Mark Moseley, and Taylor have won the award from positions other than QB or RB. Taylor is the only winner for the Pro Football Writers Association award, which began in 1975. This is an absolute farce.)

Remember ST&NO Rule #1: If reporters vote for it, and decide it, it's usually not particularly worth paying attention to. That includes any and all power rankings, the NFL All-Pro team, all season-ending awards in all sports, and membership in all Halls of Fame. Reporters often mean well, and they add some value to the overall football discourse, but the value they add ends when they're not asking questions, finding things out, and reporting those things. When you ask them to judge something, most can't get past the very obvious, or what other people tell them, and nearly all are biased by what they consider to be the most interesting story. While that's understandable, given the fact that they're in the interesting story business, it's also self-serving, and represents noise rather than a reflection of truth.

s. The more I watch Chad Henne, the more I like his mechanics, all the way through the process of playing QB. I most especially like the way he carries out his fakes after he hands off the ball. You can tell that he's very well coached, both at the collegiate level and the professional level.

t. Speaking of good coaching, if Head Coaching jobs were being handed out based only upon excellence as a coordinator, Mike Mularkey would be looking pretty good for a shot at another job. People who know things about offense, and pay attention, know that Mularkey has been getting a lot of production out of some pretty marginal talent the last two seasons. It's equal parts scheme, knowing the capabilities of his players, and getting his guys to execute, but Atlanta's offense overachieves. Remember - Mularkey didn't get fired in Buffalo; he resigned in 2006 because he didn't see eye-to-eye with the recently hired Marv Levy. He's up there with Houston's Kyle Shanahan on offense, and the Broncos' Mike Nolan, Cincinnati's Mike Zimmer, and Arizona's Bill Davis on defense as guys who I think are adding a great deal of value to their sides of the ball.

u. I tend to dislike University of Texas players, because they have a well-known reputation for being coddled in Austin, and often coming into the NFL as soft players. A limitation of making evaluations from a distance is that you sometimes have to rely on information which may or may not be meaningful, such as the fact that coaches are prohibited from cursing at players at UT. That's pretty absurd in my opinion, like the urban legend about stress cards in basic training.

I didn't take to Brian Orakpo much coming out of college, partially due to the UT factor. Turns out, he's very good, and he's brought a lot to the table for Oakland. He has had a very good rookie season, but he was dominant on Sunday against the Raiders' bad offensive line and indecisive JaMarcus Russell. I still prefer Knowshon Moreno to Orakpo for the long haul, and I still think the Redskins should have taken Michael Oher (after the Packers should have taken Michael Oher). Orakpo was a good choice though, and is a good player, so I missed on that one.

v. I said a couple weeks ago that I was pretty sure that the Chiefs didn't regret acquiring Matt Cassel, and he's proceeded to have the two worst games of his career the last two weeks. His ability is very clear, so I still don't think they regret it, but he needs to step it up, and buy Todd Haley and Scott Pioli some cover. Kansas City has an aggressive local sports media, led by Adam Teicher and Jason Whitlock. Whitlock has already renamed Pioli as Scott Egoli, so it would be mighty helpful to this regime if they and Cassel could finish the season stronger than they've been showing, and feel like there's something to build on.

w. A vital part of a 3-step drop passing play is that the outside blocker on the throw side (usually the Tackle) needs to cut the Defensive End and get him on the ground. The 49ers RT, Adam Snyder, failed to cut Darnell Dockett twice in the first half Monday night, resulting in an Interception by Dockett, and another deflection by Dockett, which Alex Smith caught himself, and promptly was tackled for a 6-yard loss. Neither play was Smith's fault; his job is to get to the top of his drop, and let the ball go. Snyder's job is to clear the throwing lane.

x. Speaking of guys clearly not doing their jobs (and jumping back to the Dallas game because of the topic), Tony Dungy was right on when he was asked if coaching was the problem in Dallas. He said that he knows Terence Newman has been coached to jam a WR and re-route him in Cover-2, and that coaching definitely wasn't the problem on the big Vincent Jackson 39-yard catch on 3rd and 12 (right after the aforementioned Ware injury).

That was the key play of the game, and Newman didn't make it. As the play happened live, I yelled out "Where's the f$%^&* jam, 41?" I was glad Dungy called him out, although I bet he wasn't moved to profanity like I was. I've always thought Newman was highly overrated, by virtue of being a Cowboy. It comes with wearing the blue star, I am afraid.

y. Usually, when a defensive lineman is drafted highly, you expect him to be a big sack guy. The Bengals once drafted Justin Smith fourth overall, in 2001. His career high in sacks, mostly as a Right DE in a 40-front, was 8.5 in his rookie season. He had 6.5, 5, 8, 6, 7.5, and 2 in his next five seasons, which are respectable numbers, but not for an open-side DE drafted that highly.

Smith signed a 6-year $45 million deal with San Francisco in 2008, and moved to 5-technique in a 30-front. It's the role he should have been playing all along, because he's always been a physical, block-defeating player more than a speed-rushing player. It's not too different than the highly drafted Derrick Harvey from the Jaguars, or Jamaal Anderson for the Falcons (who moved to DT eventually). Their skill sets are just better suited to playing with physicality than with speed. (Harvey got only his second sack of the year Sunday, and Anderson has 0.5).

Anyway, Smith was dominant on Monday night, and consistently held the point of attack, while often penetrating and disrupting the Cardinals offense. It sure seemed like he is earning his money. I was also very impressed with the pass-rushing skills of Ahmad Brooks, who used to be just a MLB.

z. Another rookie I criticized for seeming to be soft was Beanie Wells, and he continues to play like he isn't. His TD run early in the 4th quarter Monday night was a man's TD run, all second effort. He did fumble later in the 4th quarter, but it was on a kill-shot by Dashon Goldson, who had a couple of those in Monday night's game.

aa. Genetics are a funny thing. In my family, we have something called the Bartlett Calves. My dad and all his siblings have them, and all my siblings and I have them, even my 8-year old half-sister Abby. The Bartlett Calves are notable for being disproportionately muscular and large, compared to the rest of our bodies. I am 6 feet tall and weigh 235 pounds, and when flexed, my calves are 18 inches around, which is 3-4 inches bigger than the average man's calf, and an inch bigger than the average man's neck.

I bring up this genetic oddity, because it makes me feel a certain kinship with Frank Gore, who has thunder thighs like whoa. He's found out a way to make good professional use of his thighs, because they're what give him such impressive power in traffic. Mine don't really come in too useful as an accounting manager and blogger.

ab. The jury is in as far as I am concerned for San Francisco. The 49ers are on the right track, and ST&NO Favorite Alex Smith has definitely emerged as their long-term QB. They have 2 first-round picks this season, which are both going to be in the 10-15 area. They need a CB and an offensive lineman with those picks, or maybe even two offensive linemen. This team is not far at all from the playoffs, and they're not even going to miss by much this season.

ac. The Cardinals are still legitimate championship contenders, but they got their hind parts kicked Monday night. The result of the game was more a reflection of good play by the Niners than it was of bad play by the Cardinals. The bright spot for Arizona was the excellent Adrian Wilson, who baited Smith into a dumb INT, and was around the ball constantly, the whole game.

4. I couldn't agree more with TJ Johnson's piece about deferring the option yesterday, and a smart analyst got out ahead of me before I wrote about it, which happens once in awhile with a Tuesday slot. I'm always glad to see an in-house MHR guy do it. Big up TJ! If you haven't read his article, you should. So should Don Banks (and Dan Fouts.)

From Banks:

• Did I hear that right, the Broncos won the coin toss to start their game at Indy and deferred to the Colts? And Peyton Manning? Why exactly would you give Manning the chance to get the ball in his hands any more than you absolutely have to? What were you thinking, Josh McDaniels? That's a dubious, rookie-like call for the Broncos new head coach. I do believe McDaniels was guilty of overconfidence in his defense.

My two cents was going to be that each team gets the ball kicked to them to start one half, and there's no way around that fact, so if you consider just this fact, it's utterly meaningless which half a particular team gets their opportunity to receive. TJ goes much further, and finds that there is actually evidence that teams who get the ball to start the second half tend to experience more success. Very interesting stuff.

5. That first-rounder from the Bears is looking really good right now. Chicago fell to 5-8 Sunday, and I like them to finish 6-10. They play at Baltimore and home against Minnesota before finishing at Detroit. For the Broncos' playoff chances, I'd like to see the Bears beat the Ravens, but I doubt it happens. A 6-10 record is probably good for a pick in the neighborhood of 9th or 10th overall. I gave a cursory look at the remaining schedules of every team with a losing record, and this is what I came up with for season-ending records, and way-too-early possible picks.

1. St. Louis 1-15 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma

2. Tampa Bay 1-15 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska

3. Detroit 2-14 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma

4. Kansas City 3-13 Eric Berry S Tennessee

5. Cleveland 4-12 Russell Okung T Oklahoma State

6. Oakland 4-12 Carlos Dunlap DE Florida

7. Buffalo 5-11 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame

8. Washington 5-11 Trent Williams T Oklahoma

9. San Francisco ~~Carolina~~ 5-11 Joe Haden CB Florida

10. Seattle 6-10 Anthony Davis T Rutgers

11. Denver ~~Chicago~~ 6-10

12. San Francisco 7-9

13. Pittsburgh 7-9

14. Houston 8-8

15. Tennessee 8-8

With a 10th or 11th pick, you can get yourself a difference-making defensive player like a Terrence Cody, Rolando McClain, or Brandon Spikes. You could also go outside the box, and draft a guy like C.J. Spiller from Clemson, who projects as a major home-run threat, a la Chris Johnson, at the NFL level. You have to admit, he'd make a nice tandem with Knowshon Moreno. My move, though, might be to try to trade down, and enjoy some of the depth of this Draft. (I say try, because you can't always do it.) I am treading kind of lightly with this line of thinking, because I am a well-known believer that players are better than draft picks. (A player is a real asset, and a draft pick is a derivative asset; when you're needing to operate now, it's better to have a barrel of oil than a contract guaranteeing the delivery of a barrel of oil at a future date and price.)

To me, the Broncos could get back once or twice to #20 or so, and take someone like either Mike or Maurkice Pouncey from Florida, if they elect to enter the draft. (Incidentally, I think Florida is going to lose a bunch of underclassmen.) Both are 6-5 320-pound interior offensive linemen, and would fill what I think is the Broncos' biggest roster need. The overall point, though, is that it's good to be in the position the Broncos are in right now, with this pick coming in higher than their record would earn. For those who were sure the Broncos erred in trading their own pick rather than Chicago's, I'd hope they remember that you don't know how things are going to play out until they play out.

6. Bad news emerged for QB-needy teams yesterday that Washington junior Jake Locker will return for his senior season. It was not altogether unexpected, but I believe that Locker would have been the first QB selected, and maybe the number-1 overall pick. His talent as a thrower and runner is way ahead of the other guys in this class. The guy who benefits is Sam Bradford, because if he checks out healthy, his size and arm are both a bit better than Jimmy Clausen's. I, personally, am not in love with either guy. Bradford looks like a young Matt Hasselbeck to me, while a comparison for Clausen doesn't come to me so easily. Clausen is short, average athletically, looks like he needs to get a lot stronger, and has an average arm. He looks a bit like a young Drew Brees, before Drew worked so hard to become what he became. I am reluctant to make that comparison, but it's the best one I can come up with.

7. Retired for John Elway.

That's all I have for this week. We'll be back next Tuesday with more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Until then, have a fantastic Raiders Week, and Go Broncos!

Horse Tracks 12/15/09 - Fox replaces injured McBath; Larsen should play Sunday; Buckhalter, Hill both have ankle sprains

Douglas A. Lee — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:25:49 -0000

DB - Week 15 - Mon: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DB - Broncos Sign Fox; McBath to IR - Gray Caldwell

DB - Weekly Press Release - Patrick Smyth

DPP - Broncos guard Kuper attracts attention with receiving yards - Lindsay Jones
"Denver coach Josh McDaniels said fullback, linebacker and special-teams ace Spencer Larsen is expected to be fine after leaving Sunday's game against the Colts after the opening kickoff with what the Broncos called a back injury. . . . Running back Correll Buckhalter and safety Renaldo Hill likely will be questionable for Sunday's home game against Oakland. Each player sprained his right ankle."

DPP - Q&A: Short-yardage struggles part of Broncos' transition season - Jeff Legwold
"Opposing defensive coaches believe the Broncos are getting beaten up at the line of scrimmage in short-yardage situations while playing with a backup right tackle, Tyler Polumbus, and having benched Ben Hamilton at guard to replace him with Russ Hochstein."

DPP - Analysis: Eddie Royal having a second-year slump for Broncos - Jeff Legwold
Legwold thinks Eddie's double-duty as PR and KR may be making him less effective at WR.

DPP - Broncos WR Marshall moves into big-money position - Mike Klis

DB - Broncos-Eagles Flexed - Gray Caldwell

DB - The Morning After: Week 14 - Chris Gentilviso

DB - Record Day For Marshall - Jim Saccomano

DB - The Beast, congrats on NFL record - Mark Cooper

DB - Ask Knowshon Moreno...

CBS4 - Broncos Quarterback John Elway Sounds Off On Brandon Marshall's 'Unstoppable' Game - cbs4denver.com

CBS4 - Broncos Fan Gets Birthday Surprise At Colts Game - Tom Mustin

DPP - Broncos lose safety McBath for season - Lindsay Jones

DPP - Legwold's breakdown: 3-wide hurts Broncos' run game

DPP - Spotlight: Kuper catches attention - Lindsay Jones

DPP - The curious case of Peyton Hillis - Dave Krieger

DP - Broncos Mailbag: Hand the ball to Hillis - Mike Klis
"What I like about covering the Broncos under McDaniels is you can always ask him why. Not once has he ever shown up a reporter by belittling a question. He gives honest, full answers...McDaniels added Larsen should be fit to go at fullback this week against the Raiders and, with Correll Buckhalter likely out with an injured right ankle, Hillis would get an increased role as a tailback this week."

DP - Broncos moved quick to add Fox - Lindsay Jones

DPP - Broncos below .500 against top-tier QBs - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Numbers: Broncos' postseason picture coming into focus

DP - In order: Brady, Peyton, Rivers, Brees - Mike Klis

DPP - Broncos eyeing ... The Raiders - Lindsay Jones

DPP - Broncos linemen block for Samaritan House - Mike Klis

CSG - Marshall's big game still creating a buzz - Frank Schwab
"By Josh McDaniels’ count, the Broncos forced the ball to Brandon Marshall on Sunday only one or two times."

CSG - Broncos rookie safety McBath done for season - Frank Schwab

LTC - Broncos still likely to advance - Brian Howell

SI - Saints chase perfection; Colts plan to rest starters; more NFL - Peter King

NFP - Diner morning news: Colts win with defense - Mike Lombardi

NFL Results

NFL - Arizona Cardinals 9 at San Francisco 49ers 24

FH - Cardinals Fumble Away Chance at Clinching Division - Nancy Gay

AFC West News

NFP - Time for Raiders to sit Russell again? - Matt Bowen

ESPN - Tough decision looms in Oakland - Bill Williamson

SFC - Cable isn't ready to choose between Frye and Russell - David White

OT - Injured Raiders QB Bruce Gradkowski still hoping to play - Steve Corkran

SDUT - Return unit’s goal: spring Sproles - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Win vs. Cincy warmly inviting - Kevin Acee

KCS - Bowe's back with Chiefs after suspension - Adam Teicher

NFL News

PFW - Week 15 matchup tidbits

ESPN - A look at the scenarios if the NFL playoffs started today

FH - Two NFL Games Headed Overseas in '10 - Chris Burke

FH - Jake Locker Will Skip NFL Draft, Return to Washington

NFL Opinion

NYT - Week 14 Quick Hits: No Need for Panic in Pittsburgh - Andy Benoit

FH - It's Not Time to Blow Up the Steelers Yet - J.J. Cooper

SI - Steelers need depth, new offensive line; Randy Moss needs time - Jerome Bettis

NFP - The Monday Tavern - Mike Lombardi
"The Broncos might not have the fastest secondary, but they are smart and rarely out of position. Safety Brian Dawkins proves, although you might lose a step as you get older, you gain wisdom through experience."

NFL - Six from Sunday: Steelers still reeling from loss in Cleveland - Pat Kirwan

CBS - Prisco Grades: Week 14

NFL - Beyond Colts, much left to be sorted out in AFC playoff race - Vic Carucci

SN - NFL Power Poll: Eagles peaking at the right time - Clifton Brown

Y! - Another Cowboys season slipping away - Mike Silver

SN - Cowboys are feeling another December chill - Clifton Brown

ESPN - Bruschi: Moss not a quitter

PFW - Moss' effort reflects bigger Patriots problem - Nolan Nawrocki

FOX - The Day After: What's eating Randy Moss? - John Czarnecki

NFL - With the playoffs approaching, Eagles are making their move - Mike Lombardi

FH - Rehab Becomes Reality for Michael Vick - Kevin Blackistone

FH - Eagles' Samuel Has Heart in Philly, One Eye on Former Team - Thomas George

NFP - Is SRS funding no small thing? - Andrew Brandt

NFP - NFP’s 2009 Big East all-prospect team - Wes Bunting

Horse Tracks 12/14/09 - Broncos fall 2 games behind Chargers; Marshall sets single-game catch mark in loss to Colts

Douglas A. Lee — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 12:37:24 -0000

Good Morning, MHR Friends. Well, the first 20 minutes yesterday were pretty rough. The day was marred by plenty of mistakes and missed chances on the Broncos' side of the ledger, but they sure did hang tough when it would've been quite easy to lose by 40+. I'm sure most of you had flashbacks to those playoff debacles of years past (I know I did). The decision to defer the opening kickoff was bizarre, to say the least; both the Broncos' offen have been shaky on opening possessions (if not 1st quarters in their entirety) all year long, so I was quite puzzled. No, it's clearly not why they lost; there were plenty of opportunities later on, and the Broncos were in it late. But it was a strange decision which I immediately disliked. Well, apparently Orton and BMarsh have gotten used to each other; remarkable performance from Brandon. Unfortunately, Kyle still can't seem to connect with Eddie Royal. Hopefully Buck isn't too banged up, although we're fortunate to have Jokeland heading to town next week.

DB - Broncos-Colts Highlights - Video highlights with radio calls

DB - Colts Postgame: Report - Broncos TV

DB - Marshall sets new single-game receptions record - Video

DB - Colts Postgame: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DB - Colts Postgame: Marshall - Broncos TV

NFL - Denver Broncos 16 at Indianapolis Colts 28 - Box Score

DB - Comeback Bid Falls Short - Zach Eisendrath

DB - 'Bittersweet' Record - Gray Caldwell

DPP - Colts clip Broncos 28-16 in Indy - Mike Klis
"McDaniels' research had shown that the team that kicks off at the start usually has the final possession of the first half, and then gets the ball again to start the second half." This is a strange explanation. Why is the goal to gather momentum at halftime? We're talking about Peyton Manning here, and a Broncos defense that has struggled early in many games, especially against quality teams...

DPP - Short yardage, big problem - Lindsay Jones
"The Broncos converted only 1-of-6 opportunities on third or fourth down when they needed fewer than 3 yards. They converted only 6-of-17 third downs overall. The Broncos also were stopped three times on fourth down, including twice on fourth-and-1."

DPP - Briefs: D.J. positive part of defense's soft first-half effort
"Running back Correll Buckhalter and starting safety Renaldo Hill were on crutches after the game because of injuries to their right ankles, and rookie safety Darcel McBath — who had replaced Hill in the second half — had his right arm in a sling after injuring his shoulder late in the fourth quarter."
"A charged-up Reid briefly took his helmet off to celebrate, then quickly jammed it back on. "That's a prime example of things we can't do," Reid said. "We could have got three points out of that drive."" Yeah, that was a big one. UGH.

DPP - A glimpse at the best of the Beast - Mark Kiszla
This is a terrific story, and that sure is one lucky Broncos fan.

DB - Colts Postgame: Orton - Broncos TV

DPP - Head-scratching logic can hurt - Dave Krieger

DPP - Analysis: Subpar Manning still enough - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Broncos, Colts could meet again - Mike Klis

DP - Coming up short in short yardage - Jim Armstrong

DPP - Offense lets Broncos down - Jim Armstrong

CSG - Colts break records with 28-16 victory over Denver - Frank Schwab

CSG - Marshall's record 21-catch game is wasted - Frank Schwab

CSG - Broncos almost had emergency at safety - Frank Schwab

AP - Marshall Sets NFL Record, Not Enough To Top Colts - Michael Marot

KUSA - Public memorial planned for 'Barrel Man' - Dan Boniface
Thanks to Randy for the link!

Colts News

NFL - Getting healthy, rather than keeping edge, is Colts' main goal - Vic Carucci

Y! - Colts defense comes up huge at crucial times - Jason Cole

CBS - Would rest mess with AFC's best? Let debate begin for Colts - Clark Judge

FH - Now's Not the Time for Colts to Go Easy - Greg Couch

FOX - With home-field clinched, question remains for Indy - John Oehser

IS - Colts secure home-field edge, record winning streak - Phil Richards

IS - Broncos' Marshall snags record - Philip Wilson

IS - Nice winning streak, guys! Now we'll see you in 34 days - Bob Kravitz

IS - Clark (3 TDs) leads red-zone attack - Mike Chappell

IS - Colts say let's keep playing - Mike Chappell

IS - Bob Kravitz's report card

NFL Results

NFL - San Diego Chargers 20 at Dallas Cowboys 17

NFL - Buffalo Bills 16 at Kansas City Chiefs 10

NFL - Washington Redskins 34 at Oakland Raiders 13

NFL - New Orleans Saints 26 at Atlanta Falcons 23

NFL - Detroit Lions 3 at Baltimore Ravens 48

NFL - Green Bay Packers 21 at Chicago Bears 14

NFL - Seattle Seahawks 7 at Houston Texans 34

NFL - Miami Dolphins 14 at Jacksonville Jaguars 10

NFL - Cincinnati Bengals 10 at Minnesota Vikings 30

NFL - Carolina Panthers 10 at New England Patriots 20

NFL - New York Jets 26 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

NFL - St. Louis Rams 7 at Tennessee Titans 47

NFL - Philadelphia Eagles 45 at New York Giants 38

AFC West News

SDUT - Turner will be here for a while - Kevin Acee

CBS - Week 14 Judgements: Chargers are Colts' recurring nightmare - Clark Judge

FH - Cowboys Sinking and Chargers Soaring? Must Be December - Nancy Gay

FH - San Diego Charging as Contenders Come Into Focus - Dave Goldberg

SDUT - Bolts' big D smashes 'Boys - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Acting like they've been there before - Tim Sullivan

SDUT - Rivers gives Coach the game ball - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Power ball is finishing touch for win on road - Kevin Acee

SDUT - No such thing as weak side in goal-line stand - Chris Jenkins

SDUT - Tim Sullivan's report card

KCS - Chiefs can't overcome offensive mistakes in 16-10 loss to Bills - Adam Teicher

KCS - Chiefs should thank anyone who sat through this game - Jason Whitlock

KCS - Crucial decisions on fourth downs don't pan out for Chiefs - Randy Covitz

KCS - Charles has big day on offense and almost makes big play on defense - Randy Covitz

KCS - Chiefs' defense gets run over once again - Adam Teicher

KCS - Chiefs Buzz | Team honors Tom Watson; first-quarter woes; Dorsey, Waters injured - Randy Covitz

KCS - Grading the Chiefs - Adam Teicher

FH - Gradkowski's Injuries Reopens Door for Russell in Oakland - Chris Burke

SFC - Cut off at the knees - David White

SFC - 49ers, Raiders will never share a stadium - Ray Ratto

SFC - Flags fly, but please, no saluting - David White

SFC - Game review - David White

SFC - Russell is the new Marc Wilson - Ray Ratto

SFC - Raiders eliminated from playoff contention - David White
Did anyone know the Raiders were IN playoff contention? Oh, that's right - Seymour guaranteed they'd make it...well, hopefully he's in Denver next year, just not saying stupid stuff like that.

OT - Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell seizing the day the wrong way - Gary Peterson

OT - How bad is it for the Raiders? The fans are calling for Charlie Frye - Monte Poole

NFL News

NFL - Cowboys' Ware sprains neck, hospitalized after collision

NFL Opinion

SI - Assessing the chances of AFC wild-card contenders - Don Banks

SN - Week 14 Checkdown: Scramble on for bottom seeds in AFC - Vinnie Iyer

ESPN - John Clayton's Last Call
"Despite their 28-16 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, the Broncos once again proved they are a playoff-caliber team."

NFL - Bengals will make playoffs, but loss to Vikings shows flaws - Steve Wyche

FH - Dominant Defense Lifts Favre's Vikings Into Playoffs - Dan Graziano

FOX - Favre winning battle against aging - Alex Marvez

SI - Vikings not perfect, but they may be close enough - Joe Posnanski