SB Nation - Jack Williams

Preview: Green Bay Packers at Lions

Brandon — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

by Carlos Osorio - AP

The big news in Green Bay this week have been the injuries, and the big news in Detroit have been the injuries. My opinion is that while the injuries to LB Aaron Kampman and CB Al Harris are significant, they still have a good defensive unit in place. For the Lions, it seems like their offense can't function without QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson. Based on the fact that the Lions only had 149 yards of total offense when the teams met last month, and that Stafford and Johnson were out for that game as well, it's a fair point.

League rankings, based on yardage, from NFL.com:

Team	Run Offense	Pass Offense	Run Defense	Pass Defense
Packers	11	7	4	7
Lions	25	18	20	32

The Packers offense has been productive all season, and should have no trouble gaining yards against a struggling Lions defense (especially their patchwork secondary). While it looks like the Lions might have a shot at attacking the injured Packer pass defense, that No. 18 ranking is based on yardage and doesn't consider that the Lions have a league leading 18 INTs. And how ineffective their offense is without Johnson.

Packers run offense vs. Lions run defense: RB Ryan Grant had one of his best games of the season last week against the 49ers, go vote for him as the FedEx Ground Player of the Week, in large part because the offensive line had their best game of the season. The 49ers run defense has played very well this season, but the o-line opened big holes and controlled the line of scrimmage. The return of RT Mark Tauscher for more than just one half was part of the reason they succeeded, but everyone played better too. If C Scott Wells misses the game, it should hurt, but it might not be a big drop down to C Evan Dietrich-Smith. Since D-S has never had much playing time, it's hard to tell how well he'll play. It's not a given, but there's no reason to suspect Grant, or RB Brandon Jackson, can't have a big game.

Packers pass offense vs. Lions pass defense: QB Brady Quinn has started, and finished, 4 games this season. In those first 3 starts, he threw for a combined 499 yards, 1 TD, and 4 INTs. In his last start against the Lions, he had 304 yards and 4 TDs. Part of their problem is that they don't generate much of a pass rush, only 18 sacks in their first 10 games (and 5 against the Packers in week 6), which comes almost exclusively from their blitzing linebackers. But the bigger problem is their patchwork secondary. They recently lost SS Marquand Manuel and CB Jack Williams for the season, and S Kalvin Pearson and S Ko Simpson should miss the Thanksgiving game too. Rookie 2nd round pick FS Louis Delmas has had a good season, and free agent signing CB Phillip Buchanon has managed to keep his starting job. But veteran CB Anthony Henry had been benched the past few weeks (he might be the nickel CB on Thursday) and journeyman CB William James is probably the other starter. My best guess is that journeyman S Marvin White, who did start 10 games for the Bengals in 2007, will probably be the other starting safety. When it's a challenge for me to figure out who's starting in the Lions secondary, that's the definition of patchwork. And QB Aaron Rodgers has never thrown for under 300 yards in 3 career games against the Lions.

Lions run offense vs. Packers run defense: The Packers run defense has been exceptional this season, and the Lions aren't running the ball. As a team, the Lions are averaging 3.9 yards/carry, but they rarely call for a run (it's only been called on approximately 40% of their plays this season). The injuries to Kampman and Harris shouldn't effect the run defense.

Lions pass defense vs. Packers pass defense. There are so many unknowns. Will Calvin Johnson play? Does QB Daunte Culpepper have anything left? Will the loss of Kampman and Harris give the Lions an opening to attack? The Packers had a great pass rush against QB Tony Romo two weeks ago without Kampman, but one game is a small sample size. The pass defense was very good during Harris's absence last season with a spleen injury. The Lions won't repeat last Sunday's dominant performance against the Browns, but they could be anywhere from decent to awful in this game. Culpepper had 282 yards passing and 1 TD in week 5 against the Steelers, and he could approach those numbers again.

X-Factor - Special Teams: The Packers awful special teams unit moved up to No. 31 overall, according to Football Outsiders, due to the unbelievably bad Steeler kick coverage, but the Packers are still very bad. However, this isn't an area the Lions can exploit much because their own special teams unit stinks, ranked No. 29 overall by FO. And the Lions top kick returner, WR Derrick Williams, is battling a hip injury.

Though the Lions were shut out in Lambeau last month, they've been scoring between 10 to 20 points/game at home (Browns game excepted), while the Packers have been scoring 26 to 31 points/game (Cowboys game excepted) over their past 6 games. Packers 31, Lions 17.

Broncos Thoughts and Musings - Redskins Week

Emmett Smith — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:21:10 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

about 1 month ago: Denver Broncos' Andra Davis (54), D.J. Williams (55) and teammates look on from the bench in the final minute against the Pittsburgh Steelers in an NFL football game Monday, Nov. 9, 2009, in Denver. The Steelers won 28-10. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

Browse more photos »

Another week in the NFL, and the Broncos didn't win this time, either. The earth remains in orbit, and the stock market didn't crash (again). Once again, some of the fan base is breaking its ankles in their haste to jump back off the bandwagon. Many of them will climb over people's heads to jump back on next week, too. It's the way this season is going.

One nice thing about getting older is getting a longer perspective on things. Patience, like age, can be a useful thing. You tend to lose the idea that the immediate is as daunting as emotions want to paint. You can, if you're lucky, learn that experiencing more wins than losses is actually enjoyable. You lose some of the urge to demand constant perfection of the world. You realize that your will never manifest that yourself, and you recognize that trying to require it of those around you makes you - and them - miserable. It's a rigged game.

The Broncos look good to me. I'm aware that they have weaknesses, but they also just played two excellent teams, one on the road. They didn't win, and they're probably not in that league yet. But they won against San Diego on the road, as well as beating three division leaders in Dallas, New England and Cincinnati. If you rate their overall performance, they're exceeding nearly everyone's estimations. Don't waste too much time worrying and insisting that things are in peril. We've won 3 of every 4 games. Enjoy it.

Let's talk Broncos!

Hamilton and Concussions

I'd like to talk for a few moments about Ben Hamilton's situation. When he spent some time out with a major concussion, I immediately became concerned. I used to see mild to moderate brain trauma cases in my clinical days and even designed a new treatment format that seemed to be very effective, so I knew how troubling that injury can be. What's just as troubling is that the medical field has been incredibly slow to admit that each concussion is a serious life event.

Some players are never the same afterward, just as many non-players will have problems with concentration, thought and emotions throughout the rest of their lives. Brain injuries are serious stuff.

In poking around, I was temporarily soothed by learning that offensive lineman relatively rarely suffer concussions. What I didn't realize at the time was that this information was put out by the tools of the NFL, which has a huge investment in keeping people believing something that we have long known is nonsense - that NFL players don't have a provably higher rate of concussive dementia than the population at large. I don't know a doc personally who believes that crap, but it's still out there.

What they didn't tell us was that offensive lineman do have a lower rate of concussions. However - they have a significantly higher rate of non-concussive head blows. If you've had a major concussion in the past, that can leave you with issues of concentration, slower reflexes and a whole slew of other issues. Since Hamilton didn't have a major history of inducing penalties and has since returning, it's impossible to rule out the concern that he may be suffering from a chronic level of post-concussive syndrome. Is that my clinical diagnosis? Of course not - I've never met the man, much less done an intake workup on him. But it concerns me as one potential explanation of the situation, and I'm pretty sure from my own history that many of his docs aren't taking this as seriously as they should. Sometimes, we can be incredibly slow to admit that things your great-grandmother knew were true - like head injuries can last for a lifetime, whether our current testing shows it clearly or not - are really true.

I wish the man well. It's time to accept that he will probably not be with the Broncos next year and to move forward in whatever way is best. The middle of the O-line will be a major priority in the draft and/or free agency this upcoming year. Count on it.

Football 101: Timing Patterns

I read a lot of comments after the Steelers game that showed me one thing - we can all learn more about the game. Several of them dealt with plays in which the receivers weren't there to absorb the pass on a timing route, and a couple dealt with Knowshon Moreno. I thought it might help to clear the air.

When a timing route is called, the QB and receiver are essentially entering into a pact. The QB agrees to throw the ball to a space that the receiver hasn't reached. The receiver agrees to get there on time to make the catch. The O-line agrees (and this might also involve a running back and a tight end or two) to protect the QB until the throw can be made accurately. All of them have to do their jobs well for the pattern to be successful.

On the first INT by Orton, Moreno was picked by the NT. As a result, he didn't get there and the pass was to open space. One of the defenders moved in and made the pick, but you really can't blame Orton. All he can do is make the throw. The running back (in this case) has to fight through and get to the ball. That didn't happen.

Oddly, the same thing happened on another play, but the outcome was pretty much the same. He wasn't where he had to be and the pass was incomplete. The fans who bemoan that the pass was 'out of his reach' don't really understand the nature of a timing route. You cannot, from our viewpoint, know if that's an accurate statement or not. Might be - it happens. But all we really can know is that the receiver didn't get to where the ball went on time. Nothing more.

Every Kiss begins with Who?

First off: The winter/Xmas commercials are back, and just as tiresome as last year's. Of a particularly high irritation factor is that one about the connection between kisses and jewelry. Not in my life, brother.

In much younger days, many kisses began with Miller Lites, Bud Heavies, bottles of good wine and the occasional glass of well-aged mead. One remarkably memorable occasion began with Cuervo Gold, but that was a long time ago. If I had to pony up jewelry just to get kissed, I knew that I was dating the wrong lady.

The two greatest inventions of the last 100 years were the fast forward and the mute button. Trust me on this one. Danged commercials...

Jack Williams

When people are talking about Jack Williams' release, this may put things more clearly: Williams was beaten out last year by Josh Bell. That's the same Josh Bell who auditioned for the Cleveland Browns last week and didn't get the job. When you can't land on the Browns' defense, you're not exactly pushing the top ten in the league, you know? If McD believes that Ty Law can be a part of this thing, well, he said the same thing about Andra Davis, Ronald Fields and a few other folks. I like his batting average so far.

Some have claimed that the Williams example is different because he might play better in the future. Sure, that might happen, but it might happen more quickly if he receives a professional kick in the pants and finds out that he's not cutting it on the field. If he's not showing signs of improving, and that seems obvious from the situation, I can't question why the Broncos cut him loose. Look to CBs in the upcoming draft and/or free agency.

Sporting News Magazine

As part of the price of getting the War Room info, I also receive the site's magazine. Like all of them, some issues resonate, others don't. This week's was interesting on several levels.

First, they noted that it's a copycat league, which is not exactly hot news, but they did a nice job of identifying some trends that go into that. The first one listed was a supposed move to younger head coaches, and Josh McD was, appropriately, the poster boy for that blurb. I'm honestly not sure that it's an advantage to be younger or older, but it's an advantage to be smart as heck and to have a lifelong background in football. Kudos to the coach on the job he's done. SNM claimed in talking about the 3-4 trend that Dom Capers and then Dick LeBeau had 'originated' the 3-4, but then backtracked and said that many teams used it in the 70s and 80s, with Denver being the admitted role model. That Capers/LeBeau was the origin modern version is a fair statement.

The mag also listed its midseason awards, and several current Broncos were front and center. Elvis Dumervil trailed DEFENSIVE MVP Darren Sharper by only 4 of the 99 votes (the votes were taken among current, active players). Dumervil also won the BIGGEST SURPRISE PLAYER (17 votes) with Kyle Orton tied with Brett Favre for second at 13 votes apiece. Josh McD walked away with COACH OF THE YEAR although he'll be fighting Sean Payton for the full-year award.

Orton and Dumervil traded positions for the MOST UNDERRATED PLAYER, with Orton winning with 7 votes and Doom in second taking 4, tied with Drew Brees and Darren Sproles. That one surprised me - in what universe is Brees or Sproles anything other than a great player and teammate? The folks who underrated them have been kidding themselves, but that's free of charge as well as common and sometimes amusing.

Two players that Broncos fans are familiar with got high ratings on MOST OVERRATED and BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT. Shawne Merriman tied with Terrell Owens as the MOST OVERRATED (I don't know why they needed a color-change on the letters, bigger font, bold and caps to make the categories obvious, but that's how they did it) and Jay Cutler was just behind them. Cutler and Merriman also garnered votes as BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT. Cutler, it should be noted, did a nice job on Sunday against Arizona, but once again finds himself without a defense and currently doesn't have the receivers or O-line that he needs either. He also did well in completions - 29 of 47, 3 TDs and only one INT with 369 yards (sacked 3 times) - but once again did better at creating yardage than points, especially in the first half, when he was 20-29, 195 and got only 7 points.

What I laughed about with regard to those two categories was not that those two players were in each, but the bizarre logic behind it. Merriman is coming off a surgery that tends to take two seasons to recover from and folks are dunning him for not being at next year's level. Like him or hate him, that's pointless. The same goes for Cutler - I spent the offseason pointing out that Chicago didn't have the O-line or receivers to win consistently and other members dissected their D in detail (I was mostly down on the secondary, and haven't changed my tune). Consistency may be the hobgoblin of little minds, but it's also kind of useful in logic and those two categories were sheer CYA.

The Sporting News also put up its recommendations for this year's All Pro - Ryan Clady and Elvis Dumervil were first team. Congratulations to both!

Wildcat/Wild Horses

The same issue talked about the Wildcat and its variants, which was interesting. They list the Broncos as being one of the teams that doesn't use it, which is both true and false, depending on your specific definition. More interesting was the followup article on Saints coordinator Gregg Williams, who held Miami to running the Wildcat 14 times for 27 yards. For those who didn't see the game, the WC seems to be mostly limited to a run-play formation, which is a huge weakness. Based on that, Williams blitzed both corners and one safety whenever the WC was set up and drove MIA insane by doing so. The Wild Horses has a big advantage there.

The Wild Horses not only gives us a chance to peek at the defense, it's also set up to become a passing attack. Since the rest of the league is running out of the WC at least 80% of the time, this makes our attack unique. That's something that the Steelers found out on the first drive Monday night. The Broncos didn't really stay with it, but it showed why the formation is unique among the versions of the WC that are out there.

The Price of Arrogance

I had some pretty irritated reactions to my recent comment that the players on the Chargers who were arguing on the sidelines, acting out and taking their arguments to the media are guilty of 'arrogance'. It seemed that the term 'arrogance' irritated folks as much as having their players called out and I was inundated with comments that I was 'arrogant' for saying that they were arrogant (Very subtle and witty, folks. There were at least a half dozen people making that incredibly insightful weak pun).

It shouldn't surprise anyone that I called the players out on this, though. I've said the same thing about Broncos players such as Brandon Marshall when he did the same, not to mention Nate Webster, Jay Cutler and a half dozen others. Players who aren't about the team first are about themselves first, which I consider to be the definition of ego and arrogance and an invitation to disaster as a team. I understand that folks believe that if you're not a fan of a certain team, you shouldn't use that term, but it is what it is.

To put this in perspective, I was interested to note that Bill Belichick referenced the same problem recently. Jimmy Johnson had once made a comment that only a limited number of teams will beat you - the others will self-destruct each year. In response to that quote, Belichick said,

Jimmy probably said the same thing to you that he once said to me: "You’re really only competing with about 10 teams a year. If you just say out of the way, the other 20 teams will screw it up themselves. Whether it’s ownership or personnel or coaching or some combination of factors." Ego, internal struggle, something will happen to two-thirds of the teams, that was Jimmy’s theory. That leaves you with about 10 teams that you’re going to have to really battle with. Those teams have it together. They’re going to make good decisions and if you play bad football, they’re going to take advantage of it. They’re going to find some undrafted guy or some middle-round pick or some veteran free agent who is going to spark their team. Pittsburgh is always going to be there. Indianapolis is always going to be there. They may not win it, but they’ll be there. You’re going to have to beat them. Philadelphia is going to be there. Yeah, [quarterback Donovan] McNabb might get hurt one year and they might go 7-9, but they’re going to be there. You’re still battling them on every front.

This is exactly what I'm referring to when I get on certain teams or payers about their ego or their arrogance. If your players are acting out on the sidelines, if they're talking about their unhappiness in the papers, they're contributing to the opposing team's success, and that's just pointless. No matter what team it shows up in, I'm going to point out that it's a bad idea. Seriously, what's the argument in favor of what a good idea it is? This is what the best teams don't do.

A perfect example of this kind of arrogance from this week's games? Tommie Harris, Chicago Bears DT. Harris is a very good player with a very bad attitude, which got him benched for the Cleveland game. The Bears aren't stopping the pass and their pass rush has been lacking, but their run defense remained stout and he's a key element there. So, during a game in which the Bears later lost two more members of the secondary (SS Al Afalava and CB Charles Tillman) Harris got so self-involved that he threw a blatant sucker punch at a defenseless opposing player (OT Deuce Lutui) who was already on the ground, 64 lousy seconds into the game. That might cost the Bears his services for that game was well as (potentially) this coming Thursday as he sits out a suspension. Since Chicago is on the line, with two more losses perhaps costing them the playoffs for a third consecutive year, that action stands out as the boneheaded play of the season so far. The Johnson Principle - handing over games by self-centered actions - is in full swing.

When a Bronco does it, I'll call that player on it as well. But, just because I'm not rooting for a certain team doesn't make it any less arrogant or any less foolish when it happens. I really don't care if it's your team or not - it isn't a very bright thing to do. One thing that I like about this year's Broncos - each person that I've listened to has taken the loss on himself and talked about the team in a positive and supportive way. That's just the way it ought to be.

Final Thoughts - What's On the Line

In regards to the running game, LG, C, and RT are exposed at the moment. One is due to injury while the others will have many wondering, "what the hell happened"!?

Say hello to my fast...

by dcrespo7 on Nov 10, 2009 3:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

It's a good, valid, and ultimately important point. I don't really wonder what happened - Hamilton hasn't been the same since the injury, whether they are linked or not. Casey Wiegmann is losing to the only player he ever will again - Father Time. Tyler Polumbus would/will need time to get his own timing and communication down right. We like to believe that everyone can learn instantly, but it usually doesn't work that way, sad to say. Ryan Harris will be back, perhaps, which would help, and Chris Kuper has been a rock. Ryan Clady has some sophomore stuff going on, but he's fine. Polumbus will show us how vulnerable we are by the time Harris makes it back.

Let's be fair. There's no way that one team could have solved anything else in this little time. The changes in this team are tremendous, quick, and have generally been effective. When you have a major weakness get exposed during a season, sometimes you need a little time to fix it. It's this team's first season together, so it's not like they've had a decade to work out the kinks.

Washington might be the tonic that we need. Traveling is never easy - statistically, I've seen that it affects winning substantially, so this will not be considered a cakewalk. We need a decisive win, whatever the score. Still - that's a doable goal. I don't see losing the last two games as that big a deal - we've won a lot more than we've lost and both teams had tremendous games, a fact that seems to have escaped many fans' attention. We need to make some adaptations, and I look forward to seeing what they are.

Go Broncos!

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 9

TJ Johnson — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 15:30:27 -0000

"So including last night that's three Stats That Don't Lie incidents that didn't kill you. Pain, or damage don't end the world, or despair, or beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man...and give some back."

--Al Swearengen

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Week 9 of the NFL. Every team has now played half of its schedule. We are beginning to see which teams are looking to give out the beatings on a regular basis (New Orleans), which teams are looking to take the beatings on a regular basis (Detroit), and which teams are just looking for Tim Tebow.

The Denver Broncos? They took another punch to the face this week, but with a 6-2 record, let's just say, I wouldn't want to find myself in a back alley with Brian Dawkins.

Welcome once again to The Stats That Don't Lie for Week 9. These are the adamantium claws of stats. Your statistical Weapon X. In short, these are the stats that are enough to piss off a Wolverine. They are: Turnovers, Field Position, Time of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

As always, for those that need a primer, or want to look at the stats from previous weeks, just click on the following links (Raiders fans, if your mom says it's not past your bedtime, I guess you can click too):

I'm not going to lie to you, my friends. In these four statistical categories, the Broncos continue to nose dive faster than Mitch Berger's roster spot. Let's take a look from last week:

Week 8 - Broncos' Rankings

Average Turnovers/Game: 2nd (tied with New England and Indianapolis)

Average Starting Field Position: 26th

Average Time of Possession: 13th

Average 3rd Down Efficiency: 19th

Week 9 - Broncos' Rankings

Average Turnovers/Game: 6th (tied with Baltimore)

Average Starting Field Position: 25th

Average Time of Possession: 16th

Average 3rd Down Efficiency: 18th

Last week I wrote that Denver continues to show a dangerous trend that could not be sustained. From this week's rankings, this disturbing trend continues. On average, the Broncos are starting drives on the 27.70-yard line (this is up slightly from last week because I went back and re-adjusted for the two Eddie Royal returns for scores). This is lower than the league average of 29.59, and lower than both Tampa Bay (30.06) and the Broncos' next opponent Washington (28.44).

While the last two games are easy to "pin" on Mitch Berger (and fries), this trend started well before his signing. Even when Denver was winning, they were continuing to lose the battle of field position. There is plenty of blame to go around, from the coverage and return units, to the returners and kickers themselves. I usually try and restrict my views to stat-based, but I am making a plea for Alphonso Smith on both punt and kick returns. Now that Ty Law is here for nickel situations, it makes sense for Smith to get on the field in this capacity. Given that he was drafted in part to be a returner, I think he ought to be given consideration once again.

We need to also be honest regarding 3rd-down efficiency. The Broncos are really starting to suck (not Raider bad, but pretty bad), converting only 37%, which is right at the league average. Even the putrid Detroit Lions (37.55%) have a better 3rd-down efficiency than does Denver. If the Broncos ever want to make a legitimate run at the playoffs, they need to be above 40%. As an example, Minnesota (46.19%) and New England (44.70%) are well in front of them. Emmett Smith and I pointed out Orton's problems on 3rd and long in a previous article on Monday, and until Denver improves on 3rd down, the criticism of Orton will continue, and much of it will be warranted.

In Orton's defense, part of the problem has been Denver's running game. MHR member Boydy pointed this out on several instances during the game thread. On 2nd and long, the Broncos were running up the middle for very short, putting themselves in 3rd and long on several occasions. And (all together now in a chant) Orton needs manageable situations.

Is it the play calling? Ben Hamilton? A Brett Kern/Jack Williams jinx? Those are questions that many MHR members have already answered in far greater numbers and with more preciseness than I. However, later in the week, I'll be looking at every single sack and incompletion from the Baltimore and Pittsburgh games (play-by-play) with some statistical analysis of the situation.

Through Week 9, here are the rankings of the 32 teams in the four categories:

In addition to Denver, I've highlighted two other teams worth noting. Both are in the top ten in these four statistical categories. They are New England and Minnesota. In particular, notice how well balanced New England is, ranking 1st in Turnovers, 8th in Field Position, 3rd in Time of Possession, and 6th in 3rd downs. I think anyone who would pick against the Patriots right now is a complete fool. I fully expect them to beat the Colts in Indianapolis in the coming week. Peyton Manning could be the best QB that ever played, but the Patriots are a team, and last time I checked, Tom Brady isn't JaMarcus Russell.

Week 9 Games

Before getting into the Week 9 numbers, a few of the games are of note, and I'd like to spend at least a little time on them, because they really illustrate some interesting points.

First, there's not much to say about the Denver/Pittsburgh game other than Denver lost all four categories for the 2nd straight week in a row. If you lose all four, you very rarely win in the NFL, because it means you simply haven't been on the field very much, you aren't generating opportunities to score, and when you are on the field, you can't sustain anything. While it's Raider football, it doesn't get me fired up.

Denver's average starting field position for the game was the 21.64 yard line, as MHR member Chibronx pointed out in an earlier post today. The Broncos could just as well told the referees before the game, "We'll just take a touchback if you don't mind...every drive." They were also a nasty 35.71% on third downs, while Pittsburgh was 58.33%.

There were two games this week that almost made a liar out of the Stats That Don't Lie. The San Diego/New York game was the first. The second was the Miami/New England game. In both cases, the winning team only won field position, and by a small margin. How does one explain such anomalies?

In a nutshell, both field position and turnovers are relative to location, and situation. This is intuitive, and has been brought up before. Bur more importantly, if you look at the stats from these two games, the turnover battle was within one. And, as much as I like to make stats the definitive answer to all subjects football, even I will admit that sometimes, football is about making one or two plays that the stats just won't describe.

Such was San Diego's last drive. The Chargers got the ball at the 20-yard line, took little time off the clock (1:46), didn't need any 3rd-down conversions (they were striking too quickly), and they didn't turn the ball over. Sometimes a great play is better than a stat (John Elway made a career out of this, after all; Dan Marino, not so much).

Perhaps I am still curing my Cutler obsession, but I just can't resist looking at the Arizona/Chicago game statistically. Up until last week, the Bears had been taking advantage of field position to the extent that they led the league in this category. So what happens when they get a game in which their average starting field position is the 26-yard line? Well, Cutler throws for over 300 yards, 3 TDs...and they lose. What would you rather have? Field position or yards? Give me the field position everyday.

Lastly, a lot was made over how the Ravens dominated Denver last week, but look what happens to them just a week later when they don't start on average at the 40-yard line, and their 3rd-down percentage is 10%. Does this mean the Bengals are suddenly better than Denver? No, it simply means that being in the same division breeds not only contempt, but familiarity. It's the same reason Oakland can go and beat a team like Philadelphia, but the next week, against a division opponent, become the same cuddly Tom Cable-coached team.

Week 9 Summaries:

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

3 teams had 0 turnovers. 1 won (33%); For the season, 41/51 (80%)
9 teams had 1 turnover. 6 won (67%); For the season, 41/69 (59%)
8 teams had 2 turnovers. 6 won (75%); For the season, 36/77 (47%)
4 teams had 3 turnovers. 0 won (0%); For the season, 7/36 (19%)
1 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 4/19 (21%)
1 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 0/6 (0%)

Week 9 Big Picture:

The team that won the turnover battle won 10 of 13 games played (77%).
In the previous category, remove the ties (2 games) and this changes to 62%
The team that won the time of possession battle won 6 of the 13 games played (46%). This is the lowest I have seen this figure in 2 seasons for an individual week.
The team that had better third down efficiency won 8 of the 13 games played (62%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 9 of the 13 games played (69%).
There were 3 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In 3 of the 3, the same team won on the scoreboard (100%). For the season, this stat is 44 out of 45 games.
The winning teams this week averaged 1.38 turnovers, 29:43 in time of possession, 44.64% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 30:97 yard line. This is the first time I have ever seen time of possession below 30 minutes for the winners in an individual week.

Top 5 in Week 9:

Top 5 in giveaways: 1. TEN; 2. MIA; 3. KC; 4. 9 Teams tied with 1
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.CIN 2.NYG 3.JAX 4.GB 5. HOU
Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.HOU 2.PIT 3.ARZ 4.WAS 5.JAX
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.DET 2.TB 3.ATL 4.ARZ 5.TEN

Running Totals, Season (through 9 weeks):

129 games have been played this season
82.95% were won by the team with less turnovers (counting ties as wins)
66.67% with a better time of possession
67.44% by the team who won on 3rd down
72.09% by the team that won the field position battle.

9-week Averages for Benchmarking This Week's Games:

9-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.71

9-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:11 (thanks to numerous OT games)

9-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.61%

9-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.59 yard line

Here are the individual game stats from Week 9 (including obligatory comments):

The Look Ahead

Looking ahead to Washington, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd-Down Efficiency

Denver 1.13 30:22 27.70 37.00%

Washington 1.88 28:44 28.44 31.83%

Washington clearly gives the ball up more often, and their 3rd-down efficiency is much worse than Denver's (which has been pretty bad as of late). Sure, the Skins generally get better field position, but not by much, and not enough to offset the other stats. Given Washington's average run defense, look for the Broncos to run the ball down Washington's throat and control the clock all day, setting up the play action to Marshall.

The Wolverine wants some more NFC East meat. Clinton Portis probably doesn't play after suffering a concussion. And, well Nobody makes The Stats That Don't Lie bleed its own blood 3 weeks in a row. Nobody!

Go Broncos!!!

Last Stat: 1.47% (percentage chance that Dan Snyder exchanges X-Mas Cards with John Riggins)

Caplan: Eagles Still Looking at Cornerbacks

Bob_Q — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 04:15:44 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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According to NFL reporter Adam Caplan's Twitter feed, the Eagles have been continuing their search for a viable fifth cornerback in the wake of Dimitri Patterson's constant injuries:

#Eagles had former #Lions 7th rounder in 2007 CB Ramzee Robinson for a workout this week.

#Eagles tried to claim CB Jack Williams so it's obvious that they are looking for some depth there.

Of course, there's always a chance current practice squad denizen Jack Ikegwuonu could make a move to the active roster, but the lengthy search so far by the Eagles suggests otherwise. Interestingly though, both Robinson and Williams have failed to make the Detroit Lions' active roster (Williams is currently on the practice squad), which should tell you something about how desperate the Birds have become for a fifth cornerback who can actually stay on the field. I wonder how long it will be before we give Trae Williams a call?

Lions Claim Jack Williams, Release Jason David

Sean Yuille — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:55:26 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

Jack Williams salutes the crowd after the Broncos beat the New England Patriots 20-17 on Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Denver. Williams was claimed by the Detroit Lions on Monday, Nov. 9, 2009. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider )

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Jason David's stay in Detroit was a short one. Less than a week after being signed by the Lions, he was released to make room for cornerback Jack Williams, who was claimed by Detroit on Monday.

Williams was recently released by the Broncos to open up a spot on the roster for Ty Law, and the Lions were one of four teams to claim him. The Browns, Colts, and Eagles also put in a claim for Williams, meaning the silver lining in losing to Seattle was that the Lions were able to get Williams. The Denver Post said that the Lions ended up with Williams because of their 2008 record, but waiver priority is now based on teams' current records. Perhaps 2008 records come in to play when there is a tie -- both Detroit and Cleveland have only 1 win -- but usually ties like this are broken based on strength of schedule.

Either way, Williams is now a member of the Lions, and Jim Schwartz shared his assessment of the former Bronco on the radio last night, suggesting that the newest Lion could play both nickel and outside cornerback.

"He'd been playing nickel for them," Schwartz told WXYT 1270 on Monday night. "He's a guy that our scouts liked. He has some slot ability, also can play outside. But he's a young player, and we've talked about not having scholarships for 16 games and rolling the roster and keep trying to improve and keep trying to get better. We need young corners, and hopefully he can fit that bill."

I'm a big fan of this move, because I'd much rather have a player like Williams, who is only in his second season in the league, than someone like Jason David, who is a veteran that hadn't even been on a roster since August until last week. Williams was a fourth-round pick in last year's draft, and excuse me for sounding like Mel Kiper, but he has tremendous potential and enormous upside. The fact that three other teams wanted him, including the Colts and the Eagles, says a lot about what kind of talent and potential Williams has.

Dear Bill Polian: Please sign Jack Williams ASAP

BigBlueShoe — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 22:08:00 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

Former-Denver Broncos' Jack Williams (AP Photo/Chris Schneider )

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The Denver Broncos decided that a 35-year-old washed up corner who has been out of football for over a year (Ty Law) is better than their 2008 4th round pick out of Kent State: Jack Williams. This means Williams will need to pass through waivers before he can become a free agent. If he makes it through waivers, Bill Polian and the Colts very much need to sign him.

We did a write-up on Williams back in 2008, just prior to the NFL Draft.

Williams has started since his sophomore year, and his production has remained consistent year after year. The other thing you learn from skywalker's diary is Jack Williams is ALWAYs around the football. He recorded 4 recovered fumbles, 4 pass break-ups, 4 INTs, and 3 sacks his senior year. Williams also played a lot of special teams at Kent State, earning him the team's award for Defensive Back of the Year and Special Teams Player of the Year.

Williams is very much suited to playing corner in a Tampa-2. He is strong in run support and seems to tackle well. Last season, he only had 13 tackles. Through seven games this year, he already has 14 tackles and 3 passes defended. With Marlin Jackson on IR and Kelvin Hayden out until December, Jack Williams is exactly the kind of DB the Colts need for nickel and dime defenses. He would also boost an already excellent special teams group.

So, yeah. Indy should sign him already.

Tip to 18to87

Broncos add Ty Law, Waive CB Jack Williams

John Bena — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 16:09:41 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

2 months ago: Denver Broncos' Jack Williams salutes the crowd after the Broncos beat the New England Patriots 20-17 in overtime during an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider )

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The Denver Broncos on Saturday signed five-time Pro Bowl cornerback Ty Law and waived cornerback Jack Williams, it was announced.

Law (5-foot-11, 200 pounds) is a 15th-year veteran who has played for the New York Jets (2008, ‘05), Kansas City (2006-07) and New England (1995-2004). He entered the NFL with the Patriots as the 23rd overall pick in the 1995 NFL Draft from the University of Michigan.

Named to the Pro Bowl four times with the Patriots (1998, 2001-03) and once with the Jets (2005), Law owns three Super Bowl rings from his time with New England (2001, ‘03-04). He has appeared in 196 career regular-season games (187 starts), totaling 835 tackles (699 solo), five sacks (33 yds.), 52 interceptions (791 yds., 7 TDs), 164 pass breakups, seven forced fumbles and five fumble recoveries.

In the playoffs, Law has started 13 career games, including three Super Bowls. He has posted 55 tackles (47 solo), six interceptions (116 yds., 1 TD) and 14 pass breakups in the postseason for his career.

Law's 58 total interceptions (52 regular season, 6 postseason) for his career tie for 16th in NFL history and lead all active cornerbacks. His 52 career interceptions in regular-season play tie for 23rd in league annals and are the most by a current player at his position.

Law has started all 16 games in three of the last four seasons, including during the 2005 campaign with the Jets when he tied for the NFL lead with a career-high 10 interceptions to earn Pro Bowl accolades. Last year, he saw time in seven games (6 starts) with the Jets after joining the club midway through the season and had 19 tackles (14 solo), two pass breakups and one forced fumble.

A first-team All-American during his final year at Michigan, Law posted 154 tackles (120 solo) and six interceptions for his collegiate career. He earned Parade All-America honors at Aliquippa High School in Aliquippa, Pa., and was born on Feb. 10, 1974.

Horse Tracks 11/7/09 - Broncos agree to terms w/Ty Law pending physical; LK Smith to start in place of McBean

Douglas A. Lee — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 15:30:34 -0000

Good Morning, MHR Friends! The imminent Ty Law signing is certainly interesting, especially the timing of it. Law must keep himself in incredible shape, because if the Broncos don't plan on suiting him up on Monday, then wouldn't they just sign him on Tuesday? Similarly, Law was signed on a Monday last year by the Jets and played for them versus the Patriots just three days later on a Thursday. The next question, of course, is whose roster spot does Law take? My guess would be Brandon Lloyd, who's been inactive every week thus far.

DB - Week 9 - Fri: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DB - Protecting Against The League’s Best - Chris Gentilviso
"After not participating in Thursday’s session, Josh Barrett (hamstring) was a limited participant. After being limited participants during Thursday’s session, David Bruton (groin) and Jack Williams (illness) were full participants on Friday. Peyton Hillis (not injury related) did not participate in Friday’s practice."

DPP - Veteran Ty Law signed to bolster Denver Broncos' secondary - Jeff Legwold

CSG - Another Ryan might be missing on line for Broncos - Frank Schwab
Le Kevin Smith will start in Ryan McBean's place on Monday.

DB - Balance In The Backfield - Chris Gentilviso
"If Buck is in space with anybody 1-on-1, linebacker, DB, whatever, I'm betting on Buck," said Andra Davis. "I've got that much confidence in him because he's big enough to run over a DB, but he's fast enough also to run by a DB. He's got the total package."

DPP - Nolan studied Steelers' 3-4 "D" to help Broncos - Jeff Legwold

LTC - Broncos aim for quick start - Brian Howell
""We haven’t really come to play the first half of a lot of games," tight end Tony Scheffler said."

Y! - Belichick Q&A: Every player has a trade price - Jason Cole
There's nothing Broncos-specific within this interview, but as it's a rare and insightful peek into the mind of Bill Belichick, it is an absolute must-read. Surely much of the wisdom he shares here is that which he's already imparted upon Josh McDaniels.

PFW - Broncos, Marshall: Good vibes may not last - Dan Parr
"While Marshall and the team have put the contract dispute in the background for the time being, it will reemerge sooner or later and nothing appears to have significantly changed between either party when it comes to that matter. Marshall wants a long-term deal and the Broncos don't need to give him one."

ESPN - Ron Jaworski: Denver Broncos must go long against Pittsburgh Steelers
"The Broncos simply have to try to manufacture a touchdown. They have to come out in a max-protect set, send two wide receivers down the field and see what happens. I don't see them going 80 yards in 12 plays too often against the Steelers."

LTC - Steelers’ Tomlin a good role model for McDaniels - Brian Howell

DB - Keeping Things In Perspective - Mike Rice
"Just because the Broncos lost one game doesn’t mean they’ll lose another two or three or four in a row. It also doesn’t mean a freefall is imminent."

DB - A Few Minutes With Mario Haggan - Broncos TV

DPP - Q&A: The importance of bye weeks in the NFL can be overrated - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Spotlight: Marshall clearly now No. 1 receiver - Lindsay Jones

CSG - Broncos reportedly agree to terms with cornerback Ty Law - Frank Schwab

AP - Broncos To Add Veteran Cornerback Ty Law - Pat Graham

FOX - Fearless Prediction: Steelers (5-2) at Broncos (6-1) - Sports Xchange
"PREDICTION: Steelers 24-17"

ESPN Insider - Broncos must slow Big Ben - Gary Horton
"If (Roethlisberger) is forced to more three- and five-step drops and fewer seven-step drops, it will lead to a lot of underneath routes -- that will allow the Broncos to keep everything in front of them, and the Steelers will struggle to put together multiple long drives against this Denver defense, which tackles well."

Steelers News

PPG - Steelers: No-huddle might be fun, but it does have its flaws - Gerry Dulac

PPG - Steelers: No word on Clark's status - Gerry Dulac

PTR - Woodley's play validates hype - John Harris

PTR - Starkey: Fast Willie's future clouded

PTR - Timing is right for Harrison, Steelers - Scott Brown

AFC West News

FH - Suspending Cable Good for Everyone, Including Him - Kevin Blackistone

ESPN - San Diego's Jackson is becoming a receiving star - Bill Williamson

SDUT - Emerging presence - Kevin Acee
Shawne Merriman feels disrespected...

KCS - Chiefs need Morgan to mature quickly, limit big plays - Adam Teicher

KCS - Controversial locker-room sign isn’t unique to Chiefs - Adam Teicher

NFL News

NFL - Friday Injury Reports

NFL - Colts lose Sanders, Jackson for season; Gonzalez has surgery

FH - John Harbaugh: Cowboys Are Everything That's Wrong With the NFL - Josh Alper

NFL Opinion

NFP - Goodell is put on the hot seat - Andrew Brandt

USAT - The Bell Tolls: Twitter a boon and a burden for savvy NFL'ers - Jarrett Bell

FOX - NFC East teams are struggling with inconsistency - Kevin Hench

Y! - 'Tis the season to run teams into the ground - Mike Silver

SI - Daniel Snyder running Washington Redskins into ground - S.L. Price

NFP - Diner morning news: Saints, Colts midseason favorites - Mike Lombardi

NFL - Mounting outrage, protests make this the year of the fan - Jason La Canfora

NFL Picks/Previews

ESPN - Sunday Countdown online: Your weekly NFL guide - Week 9

SI - NFL Week 9 Guide, including Texans-Colts, Cowboys-Eagles, more - Ross Tucker
"The Broncos can't afford to lose the swagger and faith they had as a result of winning their first six games...Whether or not Polamalu still has that freedom without his partner in crime (Ryan Clark) in the secondary could be a factor."

NYT - Week 9 N.F.L. Matchups - Mike Tanier

ESPN - Bill Simmons book tour and NFL picks Week 9
"I am not buying the whole "Baltimore proved how to stop Denver's offense" thing. At all. Guarantee Josh McDaniels studied what the Ravens did for 75 hours this week and made all the necessary adjustments. Beware of the altitude; beware of Elvis and Knowshon; and most of all, beware of the Neck Beard."

NFL - Five years after big trade, it's a big game for Manning, Rivers - Pat Kirwan
"Coming off a bye, the Steelers in Denver sounds like a win to me."

SN - NFL Week 9: Ten bold predictions - RealScouts
"That means you can expect a pass-heavy attack from Ben and the boys in Denver. That's not so bold, but this is ... it won't work."

CBS - Peek at the Week: Big D looking for big W in Philly - Clark Judge

FH - Week 9 NFL Picks: Not Much Belief in First-Place Broncos - Dave Goldberg
"Denver's 6-0 start this season wasn't a mirage and it's been especially strong at home where it beat Dallas and New England in close games in consecutive weeks."

FH - The Once-Over: Week 9 - Knox Barden

Poll

If Ty Law is signed today, who do you think he will replace on the Broncos' roster?

Peyton Hillis

4 votes

Brandon Lloyd

56 votes

Kenny McKinley

5 votes

None of the above

159 votes

224 votes | Poll has closed

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos; Friday Injury Report

Tim Lynch — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 23:11:30 -0000

DENVER BRONCOS
Player	Injury	Thur. Participation	Fri. Participation	Sat. Participation	Saturday Status
Josh Barrett (S)	Hamstring	Did Not Participate	Limited Participation
Ryan Harris (T)	Toe	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate
Ryan McBean (DL)	Knee	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate
David Bruton (S)	Groin	Limited Participation	Full Participation
Jack "MF" Williams (CB)	Illness	Limited Participation	Full Participation
Peyton Hillis (RB)	Not Injury Related	Not Listed	Did Not Participate
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Player	Injury	Thur. Participation	Fri. Participation	Sat. Participation	Saturday Status
Travis Kirschke (DE)	Calf	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate
Lawrence Timmons (LB)	Ankle	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate

Broncos add Ty Law, pending physical

John Bena — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 20:47:18 -0000

Now this is a weird move. The Broncos have agreed to a contract with CB Ty Law - who was once one of the better corners in the League with the New England Patriots, pending a physical tonight.

Law and the Broncos have reached agreement on a contract that will add another former Patriot to Josh McDaniels' stable of them in Denver.

Law confirmed the developments when contacted Friday.

He is scheduled to fly to Denver on Friday to take a physical. Assuming he passes, Law will join the Broncos at a similar time to when he joined the New York Jets last season.

When the Jets signed him early in a week last year, Law suited up days later and participated in more than 50 plays covering Randy Moss.

He had wanted to return to football again and will now have the chance. Law, Brian Dawkins and Champ Bailey will give Denver arguably the most decorated defensive secondary in the league.

Decorated, yes - but is there a need? It is true that rookie Alphonso Smith and Jack Williams have been up and down as the Nickel corners, but will the addition of Law help that?

**Hat Tip to those who created Fan Posts and Fan Shots!

Poll

Ty Law....Good Move?

Sure, the more CBs over 30 the better!

152 votes

No More Former Patriots!

133 votes

Hey, I'm on board with whatever Josh McDaniels does!

559 votes

844 votes | Poll has closed