SB Nation - Brandon Jackson

Packers-Ravens Retroactive Live-Blog

Mitchell_M — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 19:13:49 -0000

It's been two months since I've really been active on the site. For some of you, that is a terrible tragedy. For many, many more, it is a source of endless joy. But today I decided to cater to the minority and make my presence known by throwing a mini-fiesta with my DVR, a bowl of Reese's Puffs, and a strong pot of coffee.

Before we get going with the retroactive live-blog, let me just share some of the knowledge I've gained over the course of working for 80 out of a possible 168 hours in a week:

There are few things more traumatic than the transition from college-life to real-life. I imagine it's somewhat like being born, except you're slightly more conscious and slightly less sticky.

Unlike most co-eds, I worked my way through and avoided drinking my way out of school, but nothing can truly prepare you for the real world. There's chores? You have to do them, otherwise you're living in filth. There's bills? You have to pay them, otherwise a large Italian gentleman will break your ribs. There's family gatherings you'd rather not attend? You have to go to them, because you don't have the homework excuse anymore.

Real life blows, I'm going to grad school.
Trying to keep in shape? Don't work overnights. You will have no energy whatsoever during the daytime hours. I play basketball to keep myself in shape and satisfy my over-competitiveness, and I love it. But I haven't played in two months, and I've gotten noticably soft. Amazing, considering I've lost weight.
Dry spells. Guys, when women say that they're too tired, it's generally a toss-up between them actually being tired and not wanting to deal with you. When a guy says it? Definitely tired.
Caffeine has an odd effect after consuming too much for it. The most noticeable symptom is when you're lying down after finally getting home and you get the ringing in the ears. It keeps me up for at least half an hour, and my mom (who worked 3rd shift for over a decade) says it doesn't go away. Awesome.
Watching sports is a major hassle. Not only do I miss the majority of my Sunday NFL-watching, but working nights has ruined any chance I have of watching any NBA games during the week. DVR has been my best friend, but it somehow isn't enough.

On to the live-blog! I DVR'd this last night and watched it immediately as I got home. I did not check the score at any time on Monday night, and I have no knowledge whatsoever of the outcome. Enjoy!

Pre-game observations:

I forgot how cool of an environment Lambeau is on national TV at night. Other cities have their stadiums surrounded by other big buildings with big, bright lights, but Lambeau sort of stands alone in the still-tiny Green Bay. It's kind of cool, even though it's quaint.
Another thing I forgot? Jon Gruden and Ron Jaworski are still in the MNF booth. Let's put it this way: it took roughly two minutes for Gruden to make the first (of what I predict will be many) "Mr. Rodgers' Neighborhood" jokes. Ugh.
Ed Reed is announced as inactive for the game. Good timing to get the Ravens without their ball-hawk extraordinaire, not to mention good time by ESPN's cameras, who immediately cut to Reed spitting an enormous loogie. Between that and the beard, he looks like a homeless guy (who makes roughly 100,000x my salary).
Ray Lewis may have lost a step or four, but he's still quite the motivational speaker. It's like if Lil' Jon was coherent and dread-less.
The Nike Kobe and LeBron puppets are back. Frowny-face.
And here comes the Ray Rice love. Am I pleasantly surprised by my alma mater's best football product? Yes. Am I ecstatic to have drafted him (against my then-better judgement) in the ninth round of my keeper league? Yes and yes.

Alright, enough of that. Let's play some ball, gentlemen.

First Quarter!

15:00 - Green Bay receives, and Jordy Nelson avoids both tacklers and fumble-itis all the way to the 43-yard line. Decent start.

14:34 - A play-action draw pass? Sounds terrible, but it gained 7.

13:59 - So that's why we still have Brandon Jackson. Excellent scramble by Rodgers to find Jackson in the flat for the first down.

12:44 - Ravens call a timeout (symptom of missing Ed Reed #1), and the next thing we see is Jimmy Football. If someone were to kick him in the groin, I would not object. Extra points for wearing a Billy Mays mask and demanding royalties from Budweiser.

12:32 - ESPN shows a graphic illustrating Aaron Rodgers' awesomeness on 3rd down, and he promptly finds James Jones for a first down. Outstanding blitz pickup by both Chad Clifton (the blocker) and Scott Wells (the center).

11:22 - Korey Hall and Josh Sitton pancake Ray Lewis, opening a hole for Grant to gain a first down. In other news, Did you know that Ryan Grant is 8th in the league in rushing yards? When did that happen?

10:08 - ESPN continues the Rodgers love-fest by displaying his red-zone stats. Apparently, he has 30 TDs and 0 INTs over the past two seasons when inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Yikes.

9:17 - Mark Tauscher comes up with a tipped pass and gets tackled for a loss. I'd criticize his decision to catch it versus batting it down, but whenever linemen get the ball, they seem so damn happy. I can't ruin it for him.

8:41 - Mason Crosby nearly shanks a 28-yarder. The Green Bay offense stalls in the red zone again, settling for the "easy" 3. Sadly, neither are surprises this season.

8:30 - Le'Ron McClain's smile is hilarious. Mark Clayton looks like 50 Cent. I can't wait to see the offensive linemen.

8:30 - And for good reason. Not only is Marshal Yanda's name funny, but he looks like an uncomfortable 7th grader who hasn't gotten used to his new body yet.

7:40 - Good containment on Ray Rice in the flat, but not good enough. First down, Baltimore.

7:01 - Flacco tightropes for a just-barely first down after being flushed out of the pocket. He may have looked like an idiot doing it, but it was probably better than getting pasted by Cullen Jenkins. I'll make fun of him either way.

5:05 - Bad decision by Nick Collins to go for the pick instead of batting down the ball. Another first down for Baltimore.

4:18 - Well, a fumble recovery certainly absolves Collins of any wrongdoing on the previous play. Clay Matthews is closing in on the "if a huge defensive play happens he must've had something to do with it" status currently held by Charles Woodson.

4:08 - Ryan Grant tries to return the favor, but his right knee looked like it could be down. Maybe. Possibly. Could go either way. This time, it goes the Packers' way.

3:48 - A great play by Dominique Foxworth that was (un)fortunately flagged as interference. The replay shows a grab or two, but probably

3:39 - No matter, Rodgers throws it directly to Tom ~~I-can't-spell-his-last-name-unless-I-check-the-recap-which-will-ruin-the-ending~~ Zbikowski.

2:06 - Now that's how you commit pass interference! Thanks ~~Atari Bigby~~ Tramon Williams! /facepalm

1:52 - Nick Collins makes everyone forget about Williams' transgression by picking off an ill-advised flea-flicker pass into quadruple coverage. Yeah, Flacco shouldn't have done that.

0:00 - An underwhelming first quarter filled with above-average defense and one boneheaded interception for both sides. 3-0, Green Bay.

Second Quarter!

14:52 - B.J. Raji sheds a block and drops Ray Rice for a big loss. Lucky he didn't get called for face masking, but a good play nonetheless.

14:12 - Derrick Mason just barely misses a catchable ball to force 4th down. I thought veteran receivers were supposed to make that play? I guess having Donald Driver on your team gives you a skewed expectation for aging wideouts.

13:14 - Great adjustment by James Jones to come back and grab the ball for a first down. He's definitely taken control of the 3rd WR spot on this team lately.

11:59 - By my count, that's three catches in this game that Jennings should have had but failed to come up with. This troubles me.

11:55 - Punting inside the 50-yard line? Greg Easterbrook would be appalled, then proceed to write a 10,000 word article about it. Shoot, if I included random interstellar factoids, referred to certain teams by ridiculous self-coined nicknames, and added superfluous cheerleader facts that allowed me to post their photos, I'd be Greg Easterbrook.

11:13 - Trey Wingo informs us that Jimmy Clausen will be entering the 2010 NFL Draft. Brady Quinn advises him to stay in school.

11:06 - Charles Woodson gets busted for mauling Derrick Mason. The groping wasn't necessary, Chuck.

11:01 - Clay Matthews asserts himself all over Joe Flacco. Jared Gaither doesn't know what just happened.

10:21 - Offsides on Clay Matthews? Jared Gaither claims to know what happened on the previous play.

9:48 - I know Jordy Nelson was dynamite at Kansas State, but I haven't seen enough promise out of him to merit keeping him on punt returns. Then again, it's more important to keep Woodson and Williams fresh, and Will Blackmon made his yearly trip to I.R. early this season.

8:30 - Haloti Ngata owns Daryn Colledge to drop Ryan Grant at the line. I wonder how long until Colledge loses his spot?

7:51 - It's plays like this that got Frank Walker traded. Thanks for the yardage!

7:42 - Ahman Green exhibits remarkable blitz pickup to spring Jermichael Finley on a big gain. Mike Tirico noted this, and Gruden promptly refers to him as Brandon Jackson (twice!) before correcting himself.

5:08 - Jermichael Finley makes another big play, thanks to another great third down throw from Rodgers. First and goal, Packers.

4:35 - I'm no psychic, but as soon as I saw Finley split out wide, I saw the quick fade coming. Fantastic throw, outstanding catch, b-e-a-utiful play. 10-0, Packers.

4:35 - I just remembered my fantasy football situation. Going into this week, three teams in my division were 7-5, with me among them. I play one of them this week and the other next week, and the other already has his victory wrapped up. I'm up 130-24 in a game I need to win to move into a tie for first place and help secure a playoff spot next week (the final week of the season). My opponent has Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, and the Packers defense playing. I have Ray Rice. Man, am I glad that his other players (Adrian Peterson, Reggie Wayne, Ricky Williams) all laid eggs.

2:00 - The two-minute warning comes up, and Mike Tirico just got done "highlighting" the Packers' 38-28 loss to Tampa Bay. In the team meeting the described, he said that the offensive line stood up and said something to the effect of "hey, you have to help us out too". I hope I misheard him.

1:50 - Rodgers gets the first on a sneak, and a fight nearly breaks out because Brandon Jackson is protecting Rodgers from what he thought was a late hit. Whether he was right or wrong, it is nice to see that kind of fight in your team.

1:24 - Donald Driver goes flying, earning Baltimore its 11th pass interference penalty on the year, leading the league.

1:18 - Green Bay ruins the momentum by giving up their first sack of the game. /facepalm

1:09 - And Rodgers gets it right back with a 20-yard scramble right up the middle. I take back my /facepalm.

0:38 - Rodgers delivers a Jon-Gruden-Quarterback-Fraternity-Approved LASER to Greg Jennings' back shoulder. Nice, except for Gruden's rambling.

0:32 - Rodgers connects with Donald Driver for a score, punctuated by two acrobatic leaps by Driver (one into the end zone, one into the stands). The Packer fan in me is ecstatic: the fantasy football owner is frantic.

0:00 - A solid defensive stand by Green Bay keeps the shutout alive. 17-0 Green Bay, at the half.

Halftime observations:

None. I have to be at work again in 8 hours (as of 1 PM), and I haven't slept yet. But the score doesn't lie. This game is totally worth staying up for.

Third Quarter!

14:07 - I don't know how they practiced for the past week and a half, but Green Bay is absolutely starving Ray Rice. He's trying his damndest, but he can't make anything happen. Why'd I start him against the #1 defense again?

12:31 - Brad Jones notches a sack from the strong side. Rookie 7th round pick? No matter. Boring name? Who cares? Buried on the depth chart? Not for long, I hope.

12:05 - Ryan Grant doesn't gain a ton of yards on this play, but it looks as if he's churning his legs and fighting for extra yardage more than I'm used to seeing from him. Did anyone else notice this?

9:57 - Rodgers gets time in the pocket, makes even more time, dances around, and finally gets sacked. Somehow, the play is negated by an illegal hands-to-the-face penalty. It seems like one of those games for Green Bay tonight.

9:30 - Then Scott Wells gets called for holding. Yep, it's definitely one of those games for Green Bay tonight, even if the score doesn't reflect it.

9:04 - Wow, I'm going to stop complaining about stupid penalties. I almost feel bad for Ravens fans. P.I. number twelve on the year for Baltimore.

8:27 - Jermichael Finley re-injures his knee. Not at all happy to see that.

8:23 - Nice connection to Driver that results in a fumble that quite possibly could be ruled an incompletion, if it was reviewed. Blah, a 17-0 lead in the third quarter shouldn't be this frustrating.

8:01 - Jon Gruden: "Somebody has to rescue the Ravens' offense right now." Yeah, that's Ray Rice's job, and he didn't come in today.

7:50 - As if on cue, Ray Rice rips off a big run. Jon Gruden gets to feel smart, and I lose a little bit of my soul.

6:07 - Jon Gruden praises Charles Woodson's ball-raking ability. The adolescent-me giggles uncontrollably.

5:18 - "Nobody strips a ball like Charles Woodson!" Adolescent-me is now crying with laughter.

5:13 - Todd Heap drops a sure-fire 1st and goal, then Tramon Williams forces Mark Clayton to drop one in the end zone with a slightly-more sneaky arm bar. Illegal? Yes. Effective? Absolutely, that's why it's illegal.

3:35 - I don't know what the refs were talking about before this drive, but they are letting the defense play. You don't see many drives last this long against a defense that's getting away with everything.

3:28 - A free play and a Kelley Washington touchdown deflates the stadium. The play gets challenged, but I'm skeptical.

3:28 - Modern Warfare 2 commercial, set to Eminem's "Til I Collapse". Best 30 seconds of non-football I've seen today. Get that game, if you can handle it.

3:28 - Turns out that I was right; the score stands. Green Bay is out of challenges for the game, unless of course they used the item cheat and got one for free. 17-7, Packers.

3:22 - Evan Dietrich-Smith comes up with the kickoff. My immediate thought: "This cannot end well." Of course he fumbled, but Green Bay was lucky enough to regain possession.

3:14 - Jared Johnson gets an interception off of Driver's shin. I'm not liking this third quarter. Too much bad mojo.

3:07 - More bad mojo with Tramon Williams' P.I. in the end zone. Actually, this one is relatively tame compared to other plays the refs have allowed tonight (today?).

2:58 - Willis McGahee pushes his fantasy-irrelevant self in from the 1. Makes my Ray Rice decision feel even better. 17-14, Packers. /double facepalm

2:43 - Jennings manages a nice gain on a 3rd and 10 slant. I was just about to start considering wondering whether or not Green Bay was possibly maybe starting to lose it.

1:52- Ray Lewis nearly decapitates Greg Jennings, and the flag takes forever to come in. But it does, which is all that matters.

0:42 - A Mark Tauscher hold takes Green Bay out of the red zone the same way they got in: on the yellow cloth road.

0:00 - I knew this game seemed too sloppy to be a blowout. 17-14, Packers, but our guys are in scoring position.

Fourth Quarter!

14:50 - Mason Crosby shanks a field goal, leaving the drive with nothing to show for it. Same score, same story. I sure hope the defense can regain its first-half composure.

13:53 - Flacco unleashes the dragon deep, Derrick Mason gets past Charles Woodson and makes the catch over him, but somehow got called for offensive pass interference. At this point, I don't know which team is trying to give the other team more breaks, honestly. And an unsportsmanlike penalty on Mason is tacked on at the end of it. A huge gain turns into a huge loss in a heartbeat. 3rd and 32 (!).

13:05 - So of course Baltimore decides to run the ball and Ray Rice nearly fumbles. Green Bay gets the ball back with decent field position.

12:30 - And here comes the replay of the Mason interference/unsportsmanlike penalties. There was definitely a hook-and-push around Woodson's waist, and Mason follows up that number with a plea for leniency to the referee. Pretty standard, right? Nah, just kidding, he pretty much shouted in the ref's face, "What the f--- was that, man?" Yeah, that's a flaggin'.

10:31 - Jermichael Finley gets another touchdown after a couple of nice short passes to get within 20 yards. Aaron Rodgers' red-zone stats improve, Jermichael gets the "Mr. Monday Night" nickname, my fantasy team starts to quiver in terror, and the score jumps to 24-14, Packers.

10:21 - Ah, Green Bay special teams, you never cease to disgust me. A massive kick return puts the Ravens deep into Green Bay territory. Then again, how hard is it to juke out Mason Crosby? The goalposts do it to him on a weekly basis.

9:46 - Tramon Williams earns yet another pass interference flag in the end zone. I thought there was a cap to how many times a player could get flagged for the same thing over and over?

/conveniently forgetting the Ahmad Carroll era

9:30 - How? How? How does a cornerback make that play? Tell me how Charles Woodson just stopped McGahee when he had a massive opening to go through? Between that and flustering the Ravens to the point of calling a timeout, I'm pretty sure Charles Woodson should gain an edge for the DPOY award after tonight.

8:47 - Joe Flacco rolls nearly 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage, avoids a sack, and tosses it nicely into Tramon Williams hands. Mike Tirico exclaimed "That is terrible!" as the ball was still in the air! I cannot believe Flacco made that throw. Downright Bad Favre-esque. Kudos to Williams for not retreating into the fetal position after all the penalties tonight.

8:38 - Still trying to figure out the last three plays of that Baltimore drive. Tackle for loss, timeout, interception, all from within the 5-yard line. When's the last time Green Bay came up with that kind of stop?

7:12 - Baltimore's defense forces a 3-and-out as the King of Third Down and James Jones miscommunicate on a fly-stop route.

6:48 - Yeah, Joe Flacco's having a bad day. This time he throws it right into the hands of A.J. Hawk, who was quietly having another solid game (which is EXACTLY WHY WE DRAFTED HIM! FOR QUIET, SOLID GAMES!) before this play. Back-to-back interceptions for the Unibrow, and I'm almost sad to see it. Remember, my fantasy team is up 130-24, but I'm playing Rodgers, Finley, and the Packer defense while starting Ray Rice. The offense I can deal with, but this stifling defense is killing me!

6:00 - Ahman Green smashes his way to gain a short first down, and the running out of the clock commences. How much time can they milk from the clock?

2:56 - Turns out they can burn a whole lot of time. Interesting graphic on Green Bay receivers, going from Sharpe to Brooks to Freeman to Driver to Jennings.

2:15 - "Hey Coach Gruden, I found a pair of your old practice shorts." If there's a better setup for a pasty white guy wearing green-and-gold short-shorts in below-freezing weather, I've never seen it.

1:56 - Crosby avoids the shank-osaurus and makes it 27-14, Packers. Solid lead.

1:52 - Gruden brings up the possibility of a Vikings-Packers rematch in the playoffs. I say, don't get ahead of yourself, but the prospect of facing what might be a slowly-fading Favre, a possibly nicked-up Peterson, and a banged-up defense in Minnesota isn't nearly as terrifying as it seems.

0:29 - Fittingly, Clay Matthews chases Flacco down for his second sack of the day. Ted Thompson deserves all the slack in the world for having the stones to trade up for this guy. He could draft Jimmy Clausen next season and I'd still like him.

0:00 - The sack is the last play of the game, and the Packers earn the win, 27-14.

Post-game thoughts:

Not many, again due to my exhaustion. But I will say this: the offense played relatively well, Aaron Rodgers carried the team with his passing. The defense was stifling for much of the game, and Charles Woodson should be the front-runner for DPOY, and even in the conversation for defensive-players-who-deserve-the-MVP-but-won't-get-it-because-they're-not-a-quarterback-or-running-back (if he wasn't already). The playcalling was really well thought out on both sides of the ball, and the execution of many of the plays was awfully impressive.

But two things stand out as glaring negatives. First was the penalties. So many penalties. If Baltimore didn't flag it up more than we did, it would stand out more. Tramon Williams has a lot of talent, but he cannot ~~get caught using~~ use that armbar anymore. It simply costs too much yardage. And Chad Clifton needs to get his business together, because he's smarter than he's playing.

The second thing was the final score. 27-14 seems like a solid win, but with all of the opportunities that the Ravens gave up, it should have been a much wider margin. Playoff teams win games like this soundly, which the Packers did. They should, they're a playoff team. But championship teams beat their opponent senseless when they come up with as many takeaways as they did (4).

All that said, this is Green Bay's fourth straight win after falling to 4-4. You can't ask for a better setup for the final quarter of the season.

And my fantasy team? They hung on for a 137-80 victory, largely because I had actually started Rashard Mendenhall instead of Ray Rice. See what working third shift does to you?

Preview: Green Bay Packers at Lions

Brandon — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

by Carlos Osorio - AP

View full size photo »

The big news in Green Bay this week have been the injuries, and the big news in Detroit have been the injuries. My opinion is that while the injuries to LB Aaron Kampman and CB Al Harris are significant, they still have a good defensive unit in place. For the Lions, it seems like their offense can't function without QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson. Based on the fact that the Lions only had 149 yards of total offense when the teams met last month, and that Stafford and Johnson were out for that game as well, it's a fair point.

League rankings, based on yardage, from NFL.com:

Team	Run Offense	Pass Offense	Run Defense	Pass Defense
Packers	11	7	4	7
Lions	25	18	20	32

The Packers offense has been productive all season, and should have no trouble gaining yards against a struggling Lions defense (especially their patchwork secondary). While it looks like the Lions might have a shot at attacking the injured Packer pass defense, that No. 18 ranking is based on yardage and doesn't consider that the Lions have a league leading 18 INTs. And how ineffective their offense is without Johnson.

Packers run offense vs. Lions run defense: RB Ryan Grant had one of his best games of the season last week against the 49ers, go vote for him as the FedEx Ground Player of the Week, in large part because the offensive line had their best game of the season. The 49ers run defense has played very well this season, but the o-line opened big holes and controlled the line of scrimmage. The return of RT Mark Tauscher for more than just one half was part of the reason they succeeded, but everyone played better too. If C Scott Wells misses the game, it should hurt, but it might not be a big drop down to C Evan Dietrich-Smith. Since D-S has never had much playing time, it's hard to tell how well he'll play. It's not a given, but there's no reason to suspect Grant, or RB Brandon Jackson, can't have a big game.

Packers pass offense vs. Lions pass defense: QB Brady Quinn has started, and finished, 4 games this season. In those first 3 starts, he threw for a combined 499 yards, 1 TD, and 4 INTs. In his last start against the Lions, he had 304 yards and 4 TDs. Part of their problem is that they don't generate much of a pass rush, only 18 sacks in their first 10 games (and 5 against the Packers in week 6), which comes almost exclusively from their blitzing linebackers. But the bigger problem is their patchwork secondary. They recently lost SS Marquand Manuel and CB Jack Williams for the season, and S Kalvin Pearson and S Ko Simpson should miss the Thanksgiving game too. Rookie 2nd round pick FS Louis Delmas has had a good season, and free agent signing CB Phillip Buchanon has managed to keep his starting job. But veteran CB Anthony Henry had been benched the past few weeks (he might be the nickel CB on Thursday) and journeyman CB William James is probably the other starter. My best guess is that journeyman S Marvin White, who did start 10 games for the Bengals in 2007, will probably be the other starting safety. When it's a challenge for me to figure out who's starting in the Lions secondary, that's the definition of patchwork. And QB Aaron Rodgers has never thrown for under 300 yards in 3 career games against the Lions.

Lions run offense vs. Packers run defense: The Packers run defense has been exceptional this season, and the Lions aren't running the ball. As a team, the Lions are averaging 3.9 yards/carry, but they rarely call for a run (it's only been called on approximately 40% of their plays this season). The injuries to Kampman and Harris shouldn't effect the run defense.

Lions pass defense vs. Packers pass defense. There are so many unknowns. Will Calvin Johnson play? Does QB Daunte Culpepper have anything left? Will the loss of Kampman and Harris give the Lions an opening to attack? The Packers had a great pass rush against QB Tony Romo two weeks ago without Kampman, but one game is a small sample size. The pass defense was very good during Harris's absence last season with a spleen injury. The Lions won't repeat last Sunday's dominant performance against the Browns, but they could be anywhere from decent to awful in this game. Culpepper had 282 yards passing and 1 TD in week 5 against the Steelers, and he could approach those numbers again.

X-Factor - Special Teams: The Packers awful special teams unit moved up to No. 31 overall, according to Football Outsiders, due to the unbelievably bad Steeler kick coverage, but the Packers are still very bad. However, this isn't an area the Lions can exploit much because their own special teams unit stinks, ranked No. 29 overall by FO. And the Lions top kick returner, WR Derrick Williams, is battling a hip injury.

Though the Lions were shut out in Lambeau last month, they've been scoring between 10 to 20 points/game at home (Browns game excepted), while the Packers have been scoring 26 to 31 points/game (Cowboys game excepted) over their past 6 games. Packers 31, Lions 17.

Why Ryan Grant Isn't The Answer

Mitchell_M — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 20:15:18 -0000

Ryan Grant is an enigma of sorts. He is a starting running back in the NFL, yet he is widely regarded as a player with above-average skills at best. He is good at many things, but great at nothing. Even his Scouts Inc. profile from ESPN.com shows how he is simultaneously impressive and limited.

He doesn't have outstanding speed but runs well and has quickness and burst to hit the hole...He has good power to move the pile, but wouldn't be considered an explosive ball carrier...He has adequate hands as a target in the passing game but isn't dangerous in the open field after the catch.

To sum up Ryan Grant's career to this point: "meh." He doesn't have the size of Brandon Jacobs, or the elusiveness of Adrian Peterson, or the power of Michael Turner, or the agility of LaDanian Tomlinson, or the vision of Ronnie Brown, or the afterburner speed of Chris Johnson. He has those things in smaller amounts, but not enough to be considered special.

Despite his rather pedestrian profile, Grant has respectible numbers over his 3-year career: 2654 yards, 15 touchdowns, and a ypc average of 4.3. He has a reputation of being able to produce despite his physical limitations, and that reputation has dubbed him the main rusher on one of the few teams that does not employ a running-back-by-committee.

My question is this: Should Ryan Grant be the lone ball-carrier on the Packers?

In order to explore this question, we first have to look at the state of the running back position in Green Bay since 2007, when Grant burst onto the scene. In 2007, Grant was behind the likes of Brandon Jackson, Vernand Morency, and DeShawn Wynn. It took all the way until Week 8 (the Denver OT game) for Grant to establish himself in the Packer backfield, and even then it was only due to injuries to those in front of him.

In 2008, Grant was the unquestioned starter, and Jackson and Wynn were contributors. That trend continued to this season, with a minor change in personnel. DeShawn Wynn managed to find his way onto the injured reserve list (again), so former Packer Pro Bowler Ahman Green takes his place. Despite his history, Green's addition does little to threaten Grant's job security; the starting job belongs to Ryan Grant until someone is added to the roster that can compete for the position.

While it might be remiss to dismiss Grant's 2007 campaign, I contend that he remained the starter simply because nobody else was good enough to take his place. Brett Favre's 2007 season was as stellar as it was unexpected; defenses had to focus more on the pass, thus opening up running lanes. Almost anybody could have put up decent numbers on that offense so long as they could run without getting winded.

While the story of the undrafted Notre Dame product breaking onto the scene is a popular one, players don't (or at least shouldn't) get paid based on backstory. They get paid for performance; sometimes past, but more often projected. Ryan Grant's major payday during the summer of 2007 was somewhat understated compared to the media frenzy that followed the team (and still does, as we saw from Sunday). But make no mistake, Grant's new contract was based more on the past and less on the future.

From a PR standpoint, I understand why they gave Grant his money. With all the tension pervading the Green Bay fanbase before the 2008 season, the organization needed to do something that the fans could agree upon. What better way to ease that pressure than to extend the contract of a player who had just gained nearly 1,000 yards in half a season? But from a talent and, more importantly, a projected performance standpoint, I think Grant is vastly overpaid.

Let me be clear that I like Ryan Grant and want him on the team. However, I don't think he is being properly used in the offense and the offense is being held back as a result.

Obviously, there's no way I can make these claims without at least attempting to back them up with factual evidence. Therefore, I submit Exhibit A: Ryan Grant's career statistics, supplied by NFL.com. NFL.com has a wonderful feature called "Situational Stats" that breaks down a player's numbers by more in-depth metrics than just per-game or per-carry. These different metrics really show what kind of running back Grant is and why he's being mis-used.

* * *

The first one is dividing Grant's production by the number of attempts he receives. NFL running backs typically carry the ball 20 times in a game. The best way to break down a running back's production is to look at how many yards he gains on attempts 1 through 10, then how much he gains on 11 through 20, and finally anything above carry number 21.

	Attempts	Yards	Average	TDs
1-10	352	1624	4.6	9
11-20	241	992	4.1	8
21+	75	298	4.0	1

As you can see, Grant's numbers start to take a dip once he gets past his tenth carry in a given game. While I like to see coaches stick with the run throughout a game in order to get the back into a rhythm, Grant hasn't demonstrated the ability to maintain a consistent ability to get yards as the game wears on. Another way to show this is to divide Grant's yardage totals by his career number of games.

Carries	Yards per game
1-10	46.4
11-20	28.3
21+	8.5

No wonder Mike McCarthy doesn't stick with the run. Anytime Grant carries more than ten times, his yards gained for the second decuplet of carries is halved. Halved! For a back who's known for explosive gains throughout a game, it sure seems like he can't do much after his tenth attempt.

* * *

The second metric is simpler: it compares Ryan Grant's numbers in the first and second halves of games. While it's more rudimentary, it better shows how consistent (or inconsistent) a back is throughout a game.

	Attempts	Yards	Average	TDs
1st Half	367	1634	4.5	15
2nd Half	300	1278	4.3	3

Surprisingly, this breakdown doesn't show as big of a drop off in any category besides touchdowns. He has fewer yards on fewer carries in the second half, which might be a result of the trailing team focusing more on the pass to ignite the offense. By dividing his totals by his total number of games, however, the discrepancy is a bit more visible.

	Attempts/game	Yards/game
1st Half	10.8	48.1
2nd Half	8.8	37.6

The carries per half are nearly even, but the yardage is not. Again, this might be a result of the Packers being forced into passing on offense, but conventional wisdom suggests that there would be more available on the ground. Grant has not found that room in the second half, even though he's getting the same opportunities.

* * *

The third metric is not available directly on NFL.com, but I went and dug up the stats from each individual box score from 2007, 2008, and 2009 to compile the numbers. I don't have an official name for it yet, but it measures Grant's production based on what percentage of the team's carries he is responsible for. I tried to quantify how well Grant performed when he received a minority of the carries (< 50%), a significant share (51-74%), and a majority (>75%).

% of team carries	Games	Attempts	Yards	Average	TDs
< 50%	5	36	215	6.0	1
51-74%	14	247	1118	4.5	6
> 75%	16	345	1351	3.9	8

While the discrepancies in sample sizes skews the numbers somewhat, it's clear that whenever Grant is more responsible for the rushing offense, he is less effective. Workhorse backs often produce the best whenever they get the bulk of the carries from their offense, and that's how Grant has been treated. However, the numbers simply don't support the notion that Grant needs a large amount of touches to be effective. This is more obvious when you divide the statistical totals by the number of games played.

% of team carries	Games	Attempts/game	Yards/game	Average/game	TDs/game
< 50%	5	7.2	43.0	6.0	0.2
51-74%	14	19.0	86.0	4.5	0.5
> 75%	16	21.6	84.4	3.9	0.5

As you can see, whenever Grant's carries push him into the third category of team carry %, he actually gains fewer yards per game despite the additional opportunities. Conversely, whenever Grant gets minimal opportunities, he seems to do the most with them. He gains yards more efficiently with fewer carries, and he clearly starts to wear down after his twentieth attempt.

* * *

I'm no statistician, but even I'm shocked at how much the numbers back the argument. Ryan Grant simply isn't consistent enough to be the running back that McCarthy wants him to be. Is he effective? In certain situations, yes. But I don't think that he should be a 20+ carry workhorse; he simply isn't that kind of player.

Ted Simmons Speed Camp said it best in response to the question "What happened to Ryan Grant?"

The rest of the league realized he's really a complimentary back.

Shortly thereafter, ktenreb summed up Ryan Grant's football career, how he arrived in Green Bay, why he succeeded, and the circumstances that led to his big payday:

He was a part-time starter in college on a bad Notre Dame team. TT’s plan for finding a f3eature running didn’t work (surprise!), and so at the beginning of the 2007 season it looked like the team needed some depth. TT spent a 6th round pick for what he assumed would be a third-string back who had decent hands (yes, he actually did). Jacobs didn’t work out, Wynne got hurt and lacked toughness, so Grant got his shot. His timing couldn’t have been better, because by that point of the season McCarthy and Favre had abandoned any chance of running the ball (remember, we were so bad on the O-line that we were playing with a gimmick zone-blocking scheme, to cover the lack of talent) and were killing opposing defenses with a 5 WR formation. Defenses adjusted by dropping 5 and 6 into coverage in nickel and dime defenses — against those defenses, Grant was able to run. He killed opposing defenses, and when they countered with putting more men in the box, Favre went back to killing them with slants.

After that season, Grant was a hot commodity to fans, but "real" GMs knew that it was a fluke. In fairness, Thompson knew it too, but he still stubbornly sat on his hands and took no steps to bring in a truly first-rate running back. Grant held out, and Thompson ultimately was forced to give him the big payday.

During that same summer, there was something about a quarterback/GM feud in Packerland that also was prominent, the result being that the quarterback who could run the 5 WR sets was no longer around. As the season began, Grant was not 100 percent healthy as a result of his contract holdout. He seemed to get healthier as the season progressed, and he gained over 1,000 yards, but it was pretty clear that he did not have the vision that first-rate running backs possess. Still, he was the best option on the roster and he got his carries, but at the rate of under four yards-per.

This year is the same as last year, except that Grant doesn’t have an injury excuse (at least not that I know of). The offensive line has regressed from last year, but Grant still does not show that he is truly a feature back. That was the knock against him in college, and that’s why the Giants were happy to dump him for a 6th round pick. 2007 was a fluke occasioned by a perfect storm of opportunity. It won’t happen again, and Ryan Grant is not going to turn into a genuine feature back in the NFL (unless he plays a very bad team with horrible injuries at a time when its roster is decimated by the flu).

That, my friends, is a great comment that should have been turned into a FanPost. But is he right?

For what it's worth, I think so. I think Grant can be very effective as a member of a committee, instead of a lone workhorse. Remember how the Giants used Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Derrick Ward with great success? That's the type of setup I'd like to see Grant in, with Brandon Jackson playing the role of the change-of-pace back. Then again, this is all assuming that the real problem isn't with Grant, but with his blocking, which is a very real possibility.

Man, the Thompson haters are going to have a field day with this one...and the sad thing is that they may have a point.

The Fight For First Place: Round Two

Mitchell_M — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 13:41:12 -0000

Some are calling it the "Game of the Century". Others are calling it the "Hostile Homecoming". Still others are calling it "Favre-Packers v.2.0".

Me? I call it Week 9 of the NFL season.

Admittedly, our opponent this week is eerily similar to the team that handed Green Bay its second loss of the season. We know this team very well, and the only major change is the injury to their star cornerback. Therefore, the actual matchup preview will be abbreviated. Those of you who hate my lengthy previews: commence rejoycing.

MIN rushing vs. GB defense: Adrian Peterson is still scary-good, as is the offensive line that blocks for him. Phil Loadholt has been somewhat hampered by a few nagging injuries, as had Steve Hutchinson, but both seem to be back to normal now. Peterson's rushing stats have actually been underwhelming in 2009, putting up yardage totals of 85, 55, 63, and 69 in four of the last five weeks.

Green Bay gets a major boost to its rush defense compared to the week 4 version of the team now that Atari Bigby is healthy and playing. The defensive line has also been playing well; B.J. Raji and Cullen Jenkins have managed to get consistent penetration and break up plays as they develop. The linebackers, most notably A.J. Hawk, have been streaky, but I attribute that more to having a surplus of contributors (Hawk, Nick Barnett, Brandon Chillar, Aaron Kampman, and Clay Matthews) and a vast array of sub packages.

Advantage: Still Minnesota, but not as much as before.

MIN passing vs. GB defense: Well, Brett Favre is not playing the same way he did to start the season. He's thrown 79 passes in the last two games, including 50 in last week's incredibly fluky loss to Pittsburgh. He has shown the ability to make any throw at any time, including the deep ball, where he puts it in a place where only his receiver can adjust and catch the football.

Minnesota's receiving corps is somewhat of a question mark. Bernard Berrian is dealing with hamstring problems, Percy Harvin is dealing with illness/shoulder issues (isn't he always?), leaving 2009 breakout Sidney Rice and 2008 Playgirl centerfold Visanthe Shiancoe as the main passing targets. I'd include Chester Taylor on this list, but he nearly got decapitated trying to catch a wildly-overpowered bullet dropped a short screen pass that led to the Vikes' first loss.

Besides Atari Bigby's return, the most important development between Week 4 and now is Dom Capers' realization that Aaron Kampman is effective out of a three-point stance. By shifting him to end on passing downs, Capers has enormous flexibility with his nickel and dime packages. Remember when we saw Kampman in coverage on the play where Favre had 8+ seconds to find a receiver? Don't expect to see that again.

Advantage: Minnesota, if you go by the numbers, but Green Bay has closed the gap.

GB rushing vs. MIN defense: Goodbye 2008 Ryan Grant, hello 2007 Ryan Grant. After seemingly endless questions regarding his ability, his fit in Green Bay, and the deservedness of his contract, Grant had his first breakout game in seemingly forever. This doesn't mean the questions don't still stand, but at least we know he is still capable of what got him his money in the first place. Brandon Jackson takes the place of oft-injured DeShawn Wynn, and might be a better fit as a change-of-pace back.

The offensive line looks much different than it did in the previous meeting, most notably with T.J. Lang likely filling in for Chad Clifton (re-aggravated ankle injury) at LT and Scott Wells possibly taking over for Jason Spitz (back injury). Wells has a huge chip on his shoulder after losing the job to Spitz in pre-season, and Lang has something to prove as a rookie protecting Aaron Rodgers' blind side from The Mullet. Combined with the potential availability of Mark Tauscher, the offensive line is nebulous, to say the least.

Minnesota has regained the notorious run defense that made them famous earlier in the decade, coming in at 5th in the league. Pat Williams' decline has seemed to have stalled for the time being, and the Vikings have avoided major injury to crucial players in their front seven (E.J. Henderson is the only starter listed any lower than questionable).

Advantage: Minnesota by a considerable margin.

GB passing vs. MIN defense: Aaron Rodgers is surpassing more expectations than anyone could have reasonably laid out for him. Every notable stat in the NFL has Rodgers among the leaders. First in yards per attempt (9.3), second in QB rating (110.8), tied for third for fewest interceptions (2), sixth in yards per game (283.7), and eighth in completion percentage (65.8).

Donald Driver has been crucial to Rodgers' success, as the 34-year old receiver leads the team in catches (27) and yards (479), not to mention sick one-handed grabs while his other hand is held by a defender (two). Greg Jennings has been unusually quiet in the first half of the season, and James Jones had to overcome a rough start before he got back on track. The absence of Jordy Nelson and (likely) Jermichael Finley puts more pressure on Donald Lee and Jake Allen, newly-promoted off the practice squad.

Minnesota leads the league in sacks with 25. That statistic is more than enough testament to their talent against the pass. However, with Antoine Winfield dealing with a foot sprain, he may or may not be available for Sunday, and likely won't be 100% if he does play. Karl Paymah and Benny Sapp will team up to replace Winfield's presence, and it's highly likely they won't come close.

Advantage: Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers put up his best statistical game of the season despite getting sacked 8 times. If he gets that number cut by half, it will be a long day for fans of the purple squad.

Preliminary verdict: This game is easily the most important game for Green Bay of the season. I cannot imagine a way for Green Bay to remain relevant in the playoff picture if this game ends up putting the Packers at 4-3. The second tier of NFC teams is too good to risk going for a wild-card berth, especially when the team is only 1.5 games out of first place in the division.

If Green Bay wants to win, they need to do three simple things. They are, in no particular order,

Run directly at Jared Allen. Pull guards, lead with Quinn Johnson, double team him. As a smaller DE, he is less effective against the run, and if there's any hope of stifling his pass rush, it's making him tired early in the game.
Test the Minnesota safeties. With Winfield possibly out and definitely limited, Madieu Williams takes the brunt of the coverage duties. That is a weakness worth exploiting.
Wrap, swarm, and strip AP. Clay Matthews' signature play of his young career is the strip-fumble TD of Adrian Peterson. That might not happen again, but the gang tackling and proper mechanics must if the defense expects to limit Peterson's production.

All of these things must happen in order for Green Bay to win. Not one, not two, but all three. If Jared Allen gets after Rodgers, thus preventing Rodgers from throwing downfield, and Minnesota keeps the ball by using Peterson to chew up the clock, the Vikings will have this game in the bag.

I have no idea how this will play out. I'm certain it will be as entertaining as it will be hard-fought. There's no love lost between these two teams (not to mention their respective quarterbacks), and I expect nothing but the maximum effort from both.

That being said, let's get 'em.

Poll

What outcome do you see for Week 9 vs. Minnesota?

Big GB win.

122 votes

Slim GB win.

288 votes

Too close to call.

94 votes

Slim MIN win.

87 votes

Big MIN win.

94 votes

685 votes | Poll has closed

Friday Injury Report: Green Bay Packers at Browns

Brandon — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 12:15:14 -0000

The big news is the massive injury report from the Cleveland Browns. 24 players are listed on it, mostly due to the swine flu outbreak in their locker room. Although CB Eric Wright is listed on it because of his serious car crash. The good news is that only 2 players are listed as doubtful (TE Steve Heiden and K Phil Dawson), so they should have nearly everyone available.

While the injury list is shorter than it was last week, the Packers are certainly going to miss some players. From Packers.com:

Player	Pos.	Injury	Friday Participation	Friday Status
Brandon Chillar	LB	Neck	Limited Participation	Questionable
Chad Clifton	T	Ankle	Did Not Participate	Doubtful
Korey Hall	FB	Calf	Out	Out
Greg Jennings	WR	Hip	Limited Participation	Probable
Quinn Johnson	FB	Ankle	Full Participation	Probable
Jordy Nelson	WR	Knee	Out	Out
B.J. Raji	NT	Ankle	Full Participation	Probable
Aaron Rodgers	QB	Foot	Full Participation	Probable
Jason Spitz	C/G	Back	Did Not Participate	Doubtful
Mark Tauscher	T	Knee	Limited Participation	Out
Jarius Wynn	DE	Hamstring	Did Not Participate	Out

Some big names are listed, Rodgers especially. But he should play, along with Chillar, Jennings, Johnson, and Raji.

Clifton's loss is no surprise because it looked bad when he reinjured his ankle last week. Rookie 4th round pick LT T.J. Lang will start in his place. I don't expect he'll be great, but LG Daryn Colledge was so bad in Minnesota, and even Clifton struggled with penalties last week, that he might not seem so bad. But we should expect the rookie to have some struggles.

Hall has been out for a couple weeks, but Nelson was hurt last game when he took a shot to the knee. He's having a slightly better season than WR James Jones (Nelson has caught 58% of the passes thrown his way, while Jones only has caught 42%) but for almost the same yardage and 1 TD apiece. Jones has looked lost at times, but neither has been used much this season. CB Tramon Williams will replace Nelson on special teams as the return man.

Spitz has a bad back, and he's day-to-day. C Scott Wells will replace him, start at center for the 4th game in a row, and he's probably just as good.

I'm not sure what's up with Wynn, but the rookie has barely played this season so he shouldn't be missed. Tauscher is out again as the recently resigned veteran is still rehabbing from his ACL surgery. I'm surprised RB Ahman Green is not listed, apparently he's not hurt but still in questionable football shape. The Packers have never had more than 2 RBs active for a game this season, so Green should be inactive with RB Brandon Jackson as the backup to RB Ryan Grant.

On Signing Ahman Green

Brandon — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 05:32:47 -0000

UPDATE: It's official, they've signed Green and placed DeShawn Wynn on I.R.

I was waiting until the end of Tuesday for some official word, but no such luck. It's still unclear whether the Green Bay Packers will sign RB Ahman Green.

Greg Bedard reported at JSOnline.com that the signing was reported. But shortly afterwards he reported that it may not happen at all, however, Green already has a copy of the playbook. Now his gut feeling is a signing tomorrow and RB DeShawn Wynn is placed on I.R. And that's all I've got on it.

Assuming Green is signed and Wynn is placed on I.R., it doesn't have much effect. The Packers have not had more than 2 RBs active each week, and I would expect Green would be left inactive for at least a few weeks. Just like RT Mark Tauscher, he's coming off an injury in 2008 and hasn't been in pads since then. Even if he does move ahead of RB Brandon Jackson, at the most, he's looking at 2 carries and 2 receptions/game. He would only play on a couple series in place of RB Ryan Grant.

The biggest impact would be that Green would have a real shot at becoming the leading rusher in franchise history. He's only 45 yards behind FB Jim Taylor.

Friday Injury Report: Lions at Green Bay Packers

Brandon — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 03:36:39 -0000

It's a brutally long injury report this week for the Green Bay Packers and the Lions. While it could be hitting the Lions hard, it's just long for the Packers.

FB Korey Hall and RB DeShawn Wynn are out, but FB Quinn Johnson will come off the inactive list for his first action and RB Brandon Jackson is back from injury for the first time this season. Recently resigned RT Mark Tauscher is out, but that's expected since he's practicing himself back into football shape. Although both centers (Jason Spitz and Scott Wells) are listed, Mike McCarthy expects them both to play.

The injuries have hit hard in Detroit. Obviously WR Calvin Johnson and QB Matthew Stafford are the two big names. At this point in their careers, QB Daunte Culpepper is just as good, so Stafford's loss won't matter much in this game. Except Johnson's absence is a tough loss no matter the QB. I'm not sure which other potential starters are missing, except LB Ernie Sims would start if he were healthy. RT Gosder Cherilus is a starter, but he'll play on Sunday. Even if they aren't missing any other starters, their depth is certainly being tested this week. On all the injuries, from Pride of Detroit:

All I can say is that I'm glad the Lions have a bye next week.

The complete injury lists after the jump.

Green Bay Packers:

Player	Pos.	Injury	Friday Participation	Friday Status
Atari Bigby	S	Knee	Full Participation	Probable
Chad Clifton	T	Ankle	Limited Participation	Probable
Daryn Colledge	G	Knee	Full Participation	Probable
Korey Hall	FB	Calf	Out	Out
Brandon Jackson	RB	Ankle	Full Participation	Probable
Cullen Jenkins	DE	Ankle	Full Participation	Probable
Quinn Johnson	FB	Not Inj. Related	Did Not Participate	N/A
Ryan Pickett	NT	Hip	Full Participation	Probable
Brady Poppinga	LB	Illness	Full Participation	Probable
Jason Spitz	C/G	Back	Did Not Participate	Questionable
Mark Tauscher	T	Knee	Limited Participation	Out
Jeremy Thompson	LB	Knee	Full Participation	Probable
Scott Wells	C	Hamstring	Limited Participation	Questionable
DeShawn Wynn	RB	Knee	Did Not Participate	Out

Detroit Lions:


Player	Pos.	Injury	Friday Participation	Friday Status
Gosder Cherilus	T	Shoulder	Full Participation	Probable
Jordan Dizon	LB	Foot	Limited Participation	Probable
Jerome Felton	FB	Shoulder	Limited Participation	Questionable
Casey FitzSimmons	TE	Thigh	Limited Participation	Questionable
Sammie Hill	DT	Ankle	Did Not Participate	Doubtful
Jason Hunter	DE	Ankle	Did Not Participate	Doubtful
Grady Jackson	DT	Knee	Did Not Participate	Probable
Calvin Johnson	WR	Knee	Did Not Participate	Questionable
Maurice Morris	RB	Hip	Limited Participation	Questionable
Brandon Pettigrew	TE	Hamstring	Full Participation	Probable
Koe Simpson	S	Hamstring	Did Not Participate	Doubtful
Ernie Sims	LB	Shoulder	Limited Participation	Probable
Matthew Stafford	QB	Knee	Did Not Participate	Questionable
Dewayne White	DE	Hamstring	Did Not Participate	Questionable

Ending The Bye Week Blues

Mitchell_M — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 15:32:36 -0000

It's been a rough fortnight for me, Packer fans. Not only did Green Bay lose round one of FavreFest 2009 (while watching Jared Allen and his lame-unless-he-was-on-your-team stirring sack celebration), but they headed into the bye week at 2-2, re-signed an old favorite who may or may not be ready to play, and draw a feisty Detroit Lions team that looks like it's charging back towards middle-of-the-pack status.

So there's that whole deal. Combine that with the fact that the Milwaukee Bucks are wrapping up their preseason (and Brandon Jennings looks even less ready than we thought he would), the World Series is shaping up to be a showdown between the Dodgers and Yankees (after yet another disappointing Brewers campaign), and hockey is less important to me than the price of high heels in Sri Lanka, and you can see that it's a tough time for a Wisconsin-native sports fan. Even my fantasy teams are imploding (1-4 and 2-3 in the leagues that matter).

It's tough to lose your last game before a bye week. It gives you an awful taste in your mouth about your chances afterwards. But then I remember that the Packers are playing the Lions at Lambeau this week. That makes me feel slightly better.

DET rushing vs. GB defense: Every time I think of the Detroit running backs, I think of Kevin Smith, and every time I think of Kevin Smith, I think of Clerks 2, and every time I think of Clerks 2, I think of the scene where Randal and Elias debate which trilogy was better: Lord of the Rings or Star Wars (definitely NSFW). Specifically, I think of the part where Randal reenacts the LOTR movies by simply...walking.

That scene is oddly parallel to the story of Detroit's run game. Detroit's top 4 running backs (Smith, Maurice Morris, Aaron Brown, and Jerome Felton) are averaging less than 3.6 yards per carry. Not that we're used to dominant running performances around these parts, but Kevin Smith and his 3.1 average (287 yards on 94 carries) does not strike fear into opposing defenses.

It's not even that Kevin Smith is a below-average running back. He has good size (6'1", 217), and excellent speed and agility. He regularly breaks off 10+ yard runs, and is even a decent pass catcher (19 receptions for 143 yards). But his line is giving him no help.

Jeff Backus (6'5", 305) and Gosder Cherilus (6'7", 325) are capable bookends (especially Cherilus, who is a nasty run blocker), but the interior linemen, Daniel Loper (6'6", 320), Dominic Raiola (6'1", 295), and Stephen Peterman (6'4", 323) simply aren't able to move defenders and open running lanes. Smith is the type of running back that needs space to gain momentum and use his second gear, but he can't get started because he's constantly running into brick walls.

Green Bay has fared well this season against opposing running backs. Besides Cedric Benson (who has looked every bit like the player Chicago wanted him to be, including breaking Baltimore's streak of 39 games without allowing 100+ rushing yards to a single player), the Packers have effectively bottled up opposing running backs. As a team, Green Bay is only allowing 3.5 yards per attempt, in no small part because of the "Big Okie" formation that puts 5 linebackers on the field, allowing effective pursuit to the ball, stringing plays out to the sideline, and cutting off gaps. Brandon Chillar is a surprise tackling leader this season (26 on the year), but 7 other players in the front seven have at least 11 tackles.

Advantage: Green Bay. As a team, the Packers do an excellent job of closing running lanes, while Detroit does not do a good enough job at opening them up.

DET passing vs. GB defense: When I was a kid, 'Transformers' was awesome. When Michael Bay tried to turn it into a summer flick, it made me want to further repress my childhood so that I'd have no memory of ever enjoying the battle of Autobots vs. Decepticons. But there's still one guy that makes me glad to have watched that cartoon: Calvin "Megatron" Johnson.

Whoa, nelly. Megatron is a beast. I know I gushed about him last year, but I don't care. The 6'5", 236 lb. Georgia Tech product managed to put up 1331 yards and 12 touchdowns on the putrid 2008 Lions squad. He is big, fast, strong, has great hands, and can make any catch at any time. He has been limited in the last two weeks because of injury, but coach Jim Schwartz says that it isn't serious and he is currently listed as probable.

After Johnson is where the problems start. Bryant Johnson is a first round pick who never lived up to his promise. Dennis Northcutt is a Jacksonville castoff, which is saying something. Derrick Williams has some promise, but is buried on the depth chart. Yamon Figurs is a recent addition, but will likely focus on return duties. Will Heller is a career backup at TE, and first-rounder Brandon Pettigrew was injured in training camp and is still trying to figure out his role.

Behind center, Detroit went all-in on Matthew Stafford, which I thought was a terrible decision back in April. Stafford hasn't looked awful, but he certainly hasn't outplayed fellow rookie Mark Sanchez (who is on a much better team). Stafford has a big arm (894 yards, 3 TDs), but merely average accuracy (56.8% completion) and questionable decision-making (6 INTs, 65.6 QB rating). Basically, I didn't think that Detroit should have spent first-overall money on a guy who may or may not work out at the pro level, but the jury is still out on him.

Ever since dislocating his kneecap against Chicago, however, the Matthew Stafford debate is moot for the time-being. With Stafford likely sidelined another week, Daunte Culpepper takes the reigns again. And you know what that means:

I've got these tiny hands...

While we remember his time with Minnesota in the earlier parts of the 2000's, Culpepper has never been the same since his 2006 knee injury. He's bounced around a bit before settling in Detroit as a stop-gap QB, but he's still a capable passer. He still has a big arm, decent accuracy, and can run a huddle effectively. As weird as it seems, one of Daunte Culpepper's biggest weaknesses is the size of his hands. For a few years, Culpepper was averaging over a fumble per game. He has compensated for his tiny mitts by employing an unconventional throwing motion, but when he tries to run or gets hit in the pocket, he is prone to losing control of the ball.

And Culpepper has been hit a lot lately. Seven sacks against the Steelers is downright Rodgers-esque. Even before that, though, the Lions gave up 10 sacks in 4 games, giving them 17 total for the season. The Lions simply cannot protect their quarterback, something we know all about. Backus is a decent blind-side protector, and Raiola has been around long enough to make good adjustments on the line, but Cherilus is still too raw, the interior linemen are too weak, and the backs do not block well.

Green Bay's 3-4 defense was supposed to be the kind that got after the quarterback and forced turnovers. While the +7 ratio fulfills the second part, the sacks simply haven't been there. Through four games, the Packers have five sacks. Two came against Jay Cutler, and two against Marc Bulger. Brett Favre and his porous offensive line wasn't even touched on Monday night.

The decision to change Aaron Kampman into a pass-rushing OLB was a head-scratcher during the offseason, and it's become downright dumbfounding in October. On the play where Favre had over 7 seconds to find a receiver, Kampman wasn't shut down by a Vikings lineman. He was in zone coverage, someplace he has been found all too often. Dom Capers' blitz-happy defense took a turn for the conservative when Atari Bigby went down in Week 1, so his return is much anticipated. The lack of pass rush has severely hampered the production of the defensive backfield. Charles Woodson, Nick Collins, Al Harris, and Tramon Williams are still ball-hawks. As long as they get opportunities from the front seven, they will break up more than a few passes.

Advantage: Push. While Green Bay has the clear advantage on paper, I want to see more results before I declare them to have any sort of edge.

GB rushing vs. DET defense: Detroit's run defense was one of the many weak points in 2008. Thus far in 2009, it hasn't been fixed. The Lions give up 4.9 yards per attempt on the ground. That includes performances of 142 yards by Mike Bell, 92 yards by Adrian Peterson, 121 yards by Matt Forte, and 77 yards by Rashard Mendenhall. Jim Schwartz has tried to fix the problem by shuffling personnel, but results are mixed. LB Ernie Sims was benched last week for rookie DeAndre Levy, DT Chuck Darby was waived to make room on the field for rookie Sammie Lee Hill, and Grady Jackson has seen more and more snaps.

It doesn't help that the Lions are starting Packer castoff Jason Hunter at LDE with the 240 lb. Julian Peterson playing both at LOLB and at the other DE spot. Aside from Larry Foote, the Lions don't have anyone that can really shoot gaps and take on lead blockers. Ernie Sims was supposed to be that guy, but he's currently in the dog house. Rookie safety Louis Delmas is a big hitter, but he's no Troy Polamalu just yet. The only run-stopper they have is Grady Jackson, who is getting up there in years.

Luckily for Detroit, Green Bay doesn't seem that interested in running the ball. I did a little post last week exploring where the Green Bay rushing attack has gone. As it turns out, it really hasn't gone anywhere, it's just been ignored. The team averages a shade under 100 yards per game, which is somewhat respectable, but they haven't been able to sustain long drives by picking up yards on the ground. 2007 Ryan Grant is still MIA, and DeShawn Wynn has been downright awful. Brandon Jackson is coming back from injury, which might help, but he's best suited to a 3rd down back role anyway.

Up front, Green Bay's injury problems and lack of depth have exposed the team in pass protection, but also showed below-average run blocking. With Chad Clifton returning from injury, Daryn Colledge can resume his normal role at LG, putting Jason Spitz back at C and Scott Wells on the bench. From here, the Packers have a better shot of opening running lanes, especially on the right side (where Allen Barbre performs well).

Advantage: Push. This matchup is like the stoppable force against the movable object. If Green Bay calls an even offensive game, they might have an advantage, but I don't see any at this point.

GB passing vs. DET defense: Quarterbacks like playing Detroit. Against the Motor City Kitties, NFL passers have put up 15 scores against only 3 INTs while amassing a 73.3% completion rating. While the Lions have had middling success getting to the quarterback (10 sacks in 2009), their highest individual total is 2.0 (Jason Hunter). There is no designated pass rusher, unless you count Julian Peterson, who has been a failure as a DE on passing downs. Whether the sacks have been from good downfield coverage, poor blocking by opponents, or a schematic advantage, one thing is for sure: they aren't blitzing very much (bottom third in NFL).

The defensive backfield has been a sore point in Detroit. Anthony Henry has performed well as the #1 corner, but Will James and Philip Buchanon have been switching in and out of the starting lineup. Rookie Louis Delmas is best used in run support, but he is capable in pass coverage. The Lions split time at the other safety between Ko Simpson and former fan favorite Marquand Manuel.

Passing offense has been, for Green Bay, one of the lone bright spots in a disappointing start. Aaron Rodgers has put up big numbers behind an awful offensive line, showing accuracy and poise despite getting sacked 20 times in 4 games and having to run out of the pocket on numerous occasions. The receivers have been somewhat underwhelming, amassing 10 of the team's 14 drops. Greg Jennings has been unusually quiet in the first quarter of 2009, and has gone on record to say that he thinks that the team needs to get back to the short-passing game that allowed he and the other WRs to create yards after the catch. Hear, hear, Greg.

Advantage: Green Bay. If Rodgers can get hit 8 times and still throw for over 300 yards, he will get good looks against Detroit.

Preliminary verdict: Coming off a bye, Green Bay seems to have changed a bit as a team. Mark Tauscher has been re-signed. Brandon Jackson, Jeremy Thompson, Chad Clifton, and possibly Atari Bigby should be returning from injury. The offensive line should get back to the group that started the season, and the defense should get back to the blitzing that gave us all high expectations for 2009. Perhaps this is the week where we see the 2009 preseason team in action instead of the poor impersonation we've watched for the last month.

I can't think of how the timing could be better than hosting Detroit. Unless it was Oakland, or Kansas City, or the Browns, or even the struggling Cowboys. See, Lions fans? Your team has improved a lot!

Poll

What outcome do you see for Week 6 vs. Detroit?

Big GB win.

414 votes

Slim GB win.

197 votes

Too close to call.

26 votes

Slim DET win.

40 votes

Big DET win.

11 votes

688 votes | Poll has closed

The Curious Case Of Green Bay's Receivers

Mitchell_M — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 22:23:35 -0000

The overarching story for the past month has been Green Bay's offensive line and the sense of panic and terror that everyone exudes whenever the discussion turns towards Aaron Rodgers' 20 sacks. And that is certainly an important story. A related thread from the O-line discussion is Rodgers' overall performance through 4 games and how remarkable it has been, given the mitigating circumstances. Despite constantly running for his life, Rodgers has thrown for 1,098 yards (6th in NFL), 6 touchdowns (t-8th in NFL), 1 interception (t-3rd in NFL), 47 first downs (t-8th in NFL), and a passer rating of 101.1 (5th in NFL).

Despite the small sample size, those are still some pretty gaudy stats. So all the team has to do is fix the myriad issues up front to give Rodgers some breathing room, and the offensive woes will simply correct themselves. Right?

Not so fast. There's still a completely unrelated problem that has sprung up from seemingly nowhere, and that problem is known as 'Braylon Edwards syndrome', or in layman's terms, drops.

For the past week or so, I've been working on a new statistical model that measures the consistency of production from an NFL wide receiver. As I trudge my way through knee-deep pools of numbers, statistics, and projections, one of the best raw tools that I've come up with is WR completion percentage. In a nutshell, it takes the number of times that a WR has been targeted for a pass, the number of recorded catches the WR notches, and turns it into a success percentage.

I've only been measuring Green Bay's statistics in my research, but what I've found in 2009 has surprised me. Allow me to share some of my findings with you.

Green Bay's most reliable pass-catcher: Ryan Grant. I know your reaction must be somewhere between "Huh?" and "What?!", but it's true. In four games, Grant has been targeted 11 times and has converted 8 of them, a success rate of 81.8%, with 0 drops. That makes him Green Bay's only receiver that is above 80%, which is the benchmark for "elite-level" production. For instance, the leader in the NFL in completion percentage is Pittsburgh TE Heath Miller, at 88.9%. The top WR on the list is Miami's Davone Bess at 83.3%.
Green Bay's least reliable pass catcher: DeShawn Wynn. Wynn has played the role of 3rd down back because Ryan Grant (allegedly) isn't as good of a receiver. But Wynn has only 2 catches on the year on 7 targets, with 2 drops. So far, Wynn is converting less than 30% of his targets. JaMarcus Russell thinks that's bad. When does Brandon Jackson get back?
Green Bay's top receiver: Donald Driver. This is something of a surprise, considering Donald Driver was supposed to be washed up by now. But he's the leader on the team in targets (29), and he's converted 62.1% of those targets. The percentage isn't very good (70.0% is generally the watermark for above-average production), and Driver also has 2 drops to his name. But his 18 catches have come at times when Rodgers has needed him most, and he's proven that he can still play at a high level.
Green Bay's droppiest receivers: Jordy Nelson and James Jones. The Packers' co-number three receivers have each dropped 3 passes this year, but that's where the similarity ends. Nelson has been better in converting his targets (7 for 11, Jones is 3 for 9), but Nelson's production fluctuates nearly 25.0% from game to game. In any case, both of these guys are severely underperforming their talent level, and I look for them to turn things around soon.
The difference between Green Bay's TEs: negligible. Donald Lee and Jermichael Finley seem to be trending in opposite directions, but so far their production has been about equal. Lee has converted 72.2% of his targets, and Finley has caught 73.3% of his. Each has one drop to his name (most notably Lee's drop on 4th-and-goal in the third quarter against Minnesota), but both have shown a penchant for breaking big gains. A lot of people think that Finley's big play ability should give him the edge against Lee in the battle for the starting job, but Lee really isn't that much worse than Finley. A two tight end set is a good formation for the offense to use.
Green Bay's most disturbing surprise: Greg Jennings. Jennings is a top receiver in the league. Why hasn't he played like it? Jennings has been targeted 22 times this season, but has only come up with 11 catches. A 50.0% conversion rate is awful for a number one receiver, as was the drop he had against Cincinnati and the poor route he ran against Antoine Winfield, resulting in Rodgers' lone interception. I would like to think that the reason for Jennings' decline is the wrist injury, but no matter what the reason, it's clear that his timing with Aaron Rodgers is way off. Let's hope the bye week clears that up.

A lot of the reason for Green Bay's 2-2 record is the offense's inability to sustain and finish drives. Part of that is the seive-like line up front, but a big part is Green Bay's case of the dropsies. According to STATS, a leader in measuring NFL statistics, Green Bay is third in the NFL in drops with 10. Based on my own research, I've come to a different conclusion: as a team, Green Bay has 13 drops, which ties them for the league lead. This is a problem that nobody saw coming, and I have no idea how a problem like this gets fixed. More reps in practice with the jugs machine? Special hand lotion? Massages? Acupuncture? StickUm?

In any case, the team has an extra week to shake off whatever has brought this scourge to the receiving corps. Let's hope that it's not the only scourge to be rid of during the bye.

Analysis: Packers Monday Night Injury Roundup

Brandon — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 14:00:44 -0000

From Mike McCarthy's press conference:

OK, I'll start with the injuries. Will Blackmon suffered an ACL injury. He will be lost for the season. Atari Bigby, Chad Clifton,Brandon Jackson and Jeremy Thompson, hopefully over the bye, we're optimistic they'll be ready for Detroit. Desmond Bishop had a rib bruise. I think he'll be fine coming off the bye. Daryn Colledge had a knee sprain. They're anticipating he'll be OK for Detroit. Derrick Martin had a throat contusion. He's checked out of the hospital, he's back in Green Bay, and I think he'll be fine for Detroit. And DeShawn Wynn had a wrist sprain, and I think he'll be OK for Detroit.

That's a lot of injuries; 9 players, almost 20% of the roster. The good news is that everyone is expected back in time for the next game against the Lions.

Everyone except CB Will Blackmon. He's had a history of injury problems, and now he's had another one. He has a history as a top return man, although he's been quiet this season. Despite the dropped punt on Monday night, WR Jordy Nelson has been a solid return man, and maybe it means CB Tramon Williams will go back to returning punts. Blackmon hasn't played at all on defense, as far as I've noticed, so his absence shouldn't be felt. It means rookie 6th round CB Brandon Underwood, who's been inactive for the first 4 games, might be active going forward to take his spot. While they're better with Blackmon, there is enough depth to cover for his loss.